Not "may be" it IS our best weapon, nearly our only one right now, and the only one most people have some control over. Stop traveling. Keep away from others as best you can and yes, that means changing your routines, changing your life, drastically not subtlety. Not later, not soon. Now. I took my kid out of school two weeks ago as I wanted to get ahead of this. We are spending a lot of time in the woods. Really sorry you do not all have woods out your door, extremely helpful (as is working from home, which I do already). Good time to get a puppy!
30
Thanks to Max and the New York Times for publishing articles such as this one!
I was encouraged to see in my state of Michigan, Governor Whitmer declare a state of emergency after 2 cases were found. This is the kind of quick action we need to cancel events, close schools, etc.
The two detected cases were found by test kits that were sent to a commercial lab and are being sent to the CDC for verification. Our governor is providing leadership of the right kind, including having some speedy commercial testing if the CDC isn't up to speed. Here's hoping that happens soon.
This morning I did some necessary errands. I could easily find parking at the post office and there was no line. Very unusual. That will be my last visit there for a while.
At the supermarket I used the wipes for my cart, my hands after touching the credit card touch screen, etc. It's a lot to remember, and easy to slip up. Fortunately, it's a numbers game, so the more people who do this, the better.
Time to get caught up on home things, like cleaning the basement and organizing files. If it lasts long enough, I may even paint a room or two. I get to work from home, though my work doesn't pay well, this is a perk I hadn't considered before.
Let's keep the curve flat!
27
From another article here at the NYT, quote:
"Some patients can remain stable for over a week and then suddenly develop pneumonia, Dr. Diaz said. Some patients seem to recover but then develop symptoms again.
Dr. Xiao said that some patients in China recovered but got sick again."
When I said this in a comment three weeks ago, merely as an observation comparing it to the trajectory of the disease in the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, I was promptly shot down by supposed know-it-alls who claimed I was being "ignorant" and "hysterical."
Where are those readers now, I wonder?
2
How a country prepares for and works to slow the rate of transmission will determine how overwhelmed their critical health facilities are at any one time.
Yes, in the U.S. some of us have excellent medical care available, for the moment, it should be stressed. Other Americans don't. What impacts every American is the staggering ineptitude at the top. Trump's White House pandemic team sacked a while back/CDC funding slashed/All major scientific institutions gutted/leadership replaced by party-liners. I guess folks were angry, and thought it funny to elect a clown-car. Ventilators and ICU beds have a poor sense of humor.
Stay home to the degree you can. Close schools. Keep the curve of infection at or below hospital capacity for as long as possible, or infection-rate and ICU demand will break everything all at once.
Read this, now:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html
We can't "Keep Calm and Carry On," because carrying on as usual will spread this faster. Instead, "Keep Calm and Keep Your Distance," so we can all carry on again soon.
2
Best? With the current administration approach it’s more like only!
Good luck with social distancing in congested cities like New York. On the southbound number 6 train weekday mornings, you are going to be separated from your fellow commuters by 6 millimeters, not 6 feet.
4
Whatever the term, the point on "social distancing" is this is now finally the WHO designates this as a global pandemic.
It is my "backyard" ...with colleges less than a mile away closing down, a high school closed for a day because of student exposure to a confirmed hospitalized critical patient and doctor who treated them in a world renown medical facility. Who knows where those carrying the virus despite no symptoms are shopping where I am shopping etc. ? These are chains of infections and we need to break them.
For anyone to belittle "social distancing" , it is time for those "ostriches" to get their heads out of the dangerous to all of us sand.
Why museums stay open with thousands of daily visitors from all over the world astounds me. Museums say they have added purell stands...but give no hint of closing their doors. It bewilders.
We all have to make sacrifices yet there are many selfish or ignorant citizens who find it an imposition. Our federal government is behind the 8ball to all our detriment..rich and poor alike.
All that said, I wish Max Brooks many book sales and succces with new book and with people inside a lot reading is a great pasttime.
7
It doesn’t take a genius to figure it out that if a person is sick with a viral disease that they should be quarantined.
Accurate information and not speculation needs to be at the forefront of this healthcare issue and more importantly through one reliable source.
Did Angela Merkel of Germany really convey that she “foresees two-thirds” of Germany will be infected, as reported by the NYT?
If so, in what source is she basing this on, and if she did not indicate this, why did the NYT report such information?
There is no such thing as shunning Asians in my book. My favorite restaurant in SF is Henry's Hunan in the deep Mission. I go there like clockwork every few days for some hot Hunan bliss.
What's next? if some virus comes from Mexico should we avoid Mexican eateries or skip meeting friends? perish the thought. BTW readers here should skip the taco place, it will be deliberately unnamed, on Mission and 25th...too many of you dang tourists are polluting the place and ruining it for the locals. Go to Taco Bell or Chipotle or some other corporate outfit.
Meanwhile, our great leader (not) is calling it "coronaflu," thus continuing to minimize it and falsely equate it with influenza. And his fawning faithful over at Fox lap it up.
3
Bu . . . bu . . . but Trump sez it's gonna go 'way! He did a little hand thing, like a tail-off graphic. Fifteen people were gonna get better! He said it was gonna be a miracle! And a bunch of evangelical preachers had touched him and said stuff, speaking in tongues, many people said! So stop it with this fake, failing New York Times alarmism! Trump is our commander-in-chief, and he has a surgeon who is a general!
1
So I'm looking at this great photo of the main room at Grand Central and noticing one glaring thing:
It is an open room where people zig zag in all directions.
How about we create lanes along the sides of the room and a Tic Tac Toe maze with ropes to increase social distancing?
Huge swaths of this floor would be closed off and this zig zag ends. Too bad if it's inconvenient. You need to walk a diagonal line across the room?
How do we pay for this economic stagnation? It should be quite simple. Those hedge fund managers who are multi-millionaires and billionaires, we take 20%. Big pharma exec who got us here, caring nothing about humanity, 40%. Those billionaires such as the Koch family, another 20%. The Trump children, 40% as their gains are ill-gotten. The Walton family, 50-60% as they are too little too late in their new-found sick pay policies. I can count on 10 fingers and 10 toes all of the players who have drained the lifeblood of millions of hard working Americans over the years...well, now is the time to pay up.
5
Mr. Brooks, your parents are two of my heroes. I am so impressed with the way you have channeled your advantages into activism. I hope someone is listening to your sage, compassionate words. Give my love to your dad!
2
I don't like the term "social distancing", as I feel it has negative connotations. It reeks of elitism - I'm keeping my distance from the masses. It alleviates the need to help others in society. It permits folks to think that it's OK to hoard.
Here's the part that can be fixed: Although it is supposed to refer to physical distancing, the word "physical" is not present.
We should not be distancing ourselves socially. We should be helping our neighbors, helping those that are vulnerable, helping those in need.
Instead of social distancing, we need to talk about reducing risk by minimizing physical exposure.
30
Max Brooks wrote 2 of the best pandemic books of all time (“The Zombie Survival Guide” and “World War Z”). I kept thinking what he thought about the panic and denial. Now I know and thank you NYT. Prayers to Mel, Carl and my aunt Gertrude, all in their 90s.
20
The seriousness of this virus is being downplayed by those who claim that 80 percent of those who get this will survive. Survival does not mean thriving.
As another news outlet has reported, survivors can have permanent scarring in the lungs. The virus can also spread into other organs, causing liver damage or gastrointestinal disease. These effects can play out over longer periods than in the flu, sometimes waxing and waning. Some patients have begun to feel better, then fallen critically ill. The disease can be fatal despite receiving optimal medical care.
People, governments do not shut down entire cities or countries for something that is about as dangerous as the flu. You need to contact your schools, employers, and governments right now and tell them to act. Shut down schools. Everyone who can work from home should do so. Shut down cities.
China has done this right. Italy is doing the right thing. The United States must follow.
35
I admire your stance on avoiding the risk of bringing COVID-19 into your father's home. May Mel live long and well. This illustrates how responsible reaction to this pandemic truly begins with our own individual actions.
This week I canceled a planned trip for the wife and I to France & the UK.
Did I do so to avoid possible infection from COVID-19? Yes, I did. But, that was a secondary concern. One of the highlights of our trip would be a visit with my sister and her husband. Both are further into their sixties than me. Critically, she is on a regimen of Humira, meaning any infection, particularly one for which nobody has a reservoir of immunity, could signal her end.
44
@sandgk
We thank you for being so wise and thinking about other people vs yourself. We are all in this together and we need to do all that we can to protect each other.
We are all members of the American community and we need to start acting that way and stop being ignorant. Lives depend on us being our better angels and not fools
18
@sandgk I had the same thought, "Yes, definitely stay away from your dad!" America needs Mel Brooks as long as we can have him.
10
Max Brooks's novel World War Z is more than just a zombie apocalypse novel. It's about societies and economics more so than zombies--how they disintegrate and how they revive following a worldwide viral catastrophe. My co-workers have been laughing at me behind my back for years because I was an early adopter of social distancing: handshakes, door handles, elevator buttons, and utensils in buffets are a few of the things that have driven me crazy for a long time. I regularly visit the restroom to wash my hands even if I don't otherwise need to use it.
No one is laughing at me now!
61
What a relief! All these years I thought I was an anti-social introvert. Now I learn I'm an ahead-of-the-curve Social Distancer. It's so validating!!
134
@Miss Anne Thrope After living in cities (including NYC for 10 years) all of my life until about 10 years ago, I now live in the "country." I know that folks need and want to live in cities, but the current situation brings to light all the gifts of living "out here" - peace, quiet, safety, zero problems with staying 6+ feet away from folks, no lines or parking challenges, stocked stores ... I can also telecommute. Trust me, I am eternally grateful and feel extremely privileged. I am not worried for my own health but am very glad the odds of me infecting my older parents or neighbors is hopefully lessened.
5
Are we related?
Max Brooks says: "But what is the alternative? Bring an infection home to my 93-year-old dad?"
This is the core of the article. We, as a society, cannot afford to risk the health of Mel Brooks. The man is a national treasure.
171
Didn’t Mel, as the 2,000 year old man, say eating garlic was the key to long life? The smell kept the angel of death away.
16
@Steve Ell Also Max was selfless by showing his concern for his dad and others than his own needs and wants.
13
@Matt thanks for that small piece of information. I did not know Max is the son of Mel "Blazing Saddles" Brooks. What a man!
Social distancing is the most practical response elderly people with compromised immune systems can make to the coronavirus threat.
Social Democratic distancing from the buffoonish Trump and his increasingly authoritarian Trumpublicans just might preserve our democratic republic.
To bad Senator Sanders did not stress that “Social Democracy” is the current term for “the New-New Deal.”
Sanders should have realized years ago that most American voters have been conditioned to interpret “socialism” in merely an emotive sense—in a sense equivalent to “evil.”
7
WWZ was a great read; another timely great read is "The Patron Saint of Plagues" by Barth Anderson.
"Some patients can remain stable for over a week and then suddenly develop pneumonia, Dr. Diaz said. Some patients seem to recover but then develop symptoms again.
Dr. Xiao said that some patients in China recovered but got sick again."
When I said this in a comment to an NYT article five weeks ago (Feb 3rd, to be exact), merely as an observation comparing it to the trajectory of the disease in the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, where some people also seemed to get better then suddenly relapsed, I was promptly shot down by two supposed know-it-alls who claimed I was being "ignorant" and "hysterical."
Where are those readers now, I wonder?
6
@Lisa Simeone Hope they're doing well, but this highlights the lack of data and medical analysis on this "novel" (and it most certainly is) virus. People are rightfully wary of anecdotal information, and the seemingly odd notion that one can "seem to recover" then develop symptoms, is disconcerting. In China 70% of adults smoke tobacco, and, as pulmonary effects are prominent, this may be a contributing factor ("I feel much better, give me cigarette"). Not smoking (anything) is probably a wise precaution.
1
@Lisa Simeone
I remember that comment! I saw the responses to you and jumped in. You made an astute observation and got attacked for it. I also wonder where those guys are now -- "Robert" and "Chuck" as I recall. Maybe still posting, under those or other names.
2
In 1988 the government had the capacity to send out fliers to every household. Today, the doing that is apparently socialism.
4
Indiscriminate social distancing is exactly the wrong way to overcome this disease in the quickest amount of time. What is needed instead is a sober and direct assessment of who is most likely to recover from Covid-19 -- everyone from ages zero to age 60 -- and who is most likely to die, which is people 60 and up, and especially 80 and up. Those who are 60 and up should be the ones to self-quarantine and isolate for a few months, while the rest of the population supports them safely with food, etc. The rest should not fear getting sick, because they will recover from something ranging from symptom-less to the flu, and become part of the herd immunity that will ultimately protect everyone. In fact, the sooner they get infected, the better for the world. What a chance for young people to do something great for society. They could be a new Greatest Generation.
2
@Snowball
Oh so now all of us over 60 are supposed to isolate ourselves for the rest of our lives? And that is what it will be, a life sentence, because your proposal is to just let Covid run around freely for which there is no end in sight. If Covid is like other corona viruses, including rhinovirus, it will mutate too quickly for effective immunity. In fact it may become endemic and never leave us. No thanks, I prefer to take my chances.
3
@Snowball Why not include the obese, those with diabetes, cancer, heart disease, smokers, asthma—so the healthy young can be safe to roam the earth while lepers confine themselves to their caves (for months? Really??) And here I thought 1984 was a while back.
5
@Snowball Really. And what about those with compromised immune systems? This is a risk to all of us. Your simplistic solution is infuriating and insulting. You have no idea of the complexity of the issue and your proposal is irresponsible and of no value to this discussion.
1
"In pandemics, as in war, we all need to do our part."
Sounds like your dad talking, Max (and mine), those that were part of the "greatest generation". Now, we have "semi-privatized" our military (volunteers), so the actual fighting and dying, in our endless wars, are hardly felt by most Americans.
I heartily agree we need to come together, as a country, but we have no effective leadership in DC, muzzled health experts, no test kits (where are they?), etc.
We need to help each other, that's clear, as that's our strength, but we can all help by following the CDC's instructions. That's the best information we have.
8
I disagree on the term "social". We need, more than ever to remain social. What we do need right now is "physical" distance.
5
CUNY has - finally - joined every other major university in this area and announced that it will close down for several days and therm go online for the rest of the semester.
Beginning yesterday morning, over 47,000 students, staff and teachers signed a petition on change.org, asking that the university be closed and classed moved online. While we are happy that Governor Cuomo has made that decision, thanks should also go out, and credit must be given, to the tens of thousands of students, staff, faculty and their families, who signed the petition, contacted local media, and otherwise lobbied to protect themselves, their families, one another, and the public.
We have been waiting for this decision for over a week. We proved that people working together can persuade government to react. CUNY resisted efforts to do the right thing, even when requested to do so by the teachers’ union. I think that those people who signed, made the phone calls, and sent emails in the last 36 hours have saved many people from illness, or worse.
6
Social distancing...all we will have left is virtual reality.
3
Why are none of the officials on TV or in photos wearing gloves? They touch the same surfaces. And why aren't officials demonstrating proper social distance even in press conferences on the subject?
Why do presidential candidates not wear gloves?
4
@Joe No one is following the CDC's instructions. Ergo, the Covid-19 virus will continue to spread. You'd think those being filmed would be more aware of this issue.
2
I like Max Brooks and appreciate his sentiments about a cancelled book tour but honestly: he is the son of wealthy people and is wealthy himself. His predicament and anxieties cannot be compared to others nor should they be given space in his otherwise sanguine piece. I realize he wrote WWZ and that is why his piece is here but really.
3
Thanks for clarifying the true risk:
"Bring an infection home to my 93-year-old dad?"
Healthy young people have no more risk than the flu, no big deal, the Dartmouth worker went to a party with a fever from Italy, won't kill anyone there.
I'm sure someone at the party has a parent in a nursing home, could get it before visit. Worker is morally and civil lawsuit liable.
4
@Oreamnos Right, great idea. Bring lawyers and blame into it. We are all just learning our way through this. Don’t assume you won’t make errors. Assume you already have. The lawyers—I am one—have no role here.
Mr. Brooks' advice may be correct and sensible. But what are his qualifications to opine on epidemiological matters? Is he a physician, virologist, epidemiologist or public health nurse?
If he wasn't trained in any of those or another salient specialty, then, thanks for your opinion but I'll listen to people with qualifications.
1
Really? Max can read. The New England Journal of Medicine articles on COVID-19 are all available to the public. He is well within his lane to analyze and apply the research to his life. He‘s correct on the science, and he’s not creating epidemiological models of viral spread or something that rely on knowledge of statistical modeling. It’s a novel virus not a procedure. You read about it. That’s exactly what doctors are doing too. Anyway.
3
A school district near us is closing because of two positive cases. Our area is seeing more cases. Parents are of course not happy but this is about flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming healthcare systems with an earlier severe spike in cases
5
I don’t understand why no one is considering mandatory testing for everyone. The test results to be stored in a central database to which governments, employers and service providers have access. Schools could be kept open. Airlines would check the database before sending a reservation confirmation. Etc. etc. As the author correctly points out the economic costs of „shutting down“ everything could be catastrophic. Providing free and CDC-supervised tests for everyone will be cheap by comparison. And it will help avoid unintentional infections within families.
2
@Marc the issue is that the reactive compound that is used to test for the virus is scarce, and got even more so since the whole world wants it.
We cannot even get enough tests to test 1 million people.
They are introducing other ways to test, but it's a slow process on. a good day.
3
@Marc There isn’t that many tests available worldwide yet, and even if there were, the capacity to lab process such tests is nowhere near enough for universal testing. At this point, it’s only useful to test people with suspected exposure and symptoms. Tests don’t cure anyone or impact the treatment of the disease at this point, so the advice for social distancing remains and hygiene remain our only real widespread strategies.
4
@Marc Because you'd have to test people every day until the test was positive. They could be fine today and catch the virus tomorrow.
I agree 100%. And please, keep your dad healthy and safe. He is a national treasure!
9
The St. Patrick's Day Parade in New York City must be postponed or we risk a repeat of what happened in Philadelphia from the 1918 World War I parade during the flue epidemic. The risk of infection from attending both indoor and outdoor sporting, musical, political---any event where people gather and are likely to be closer than 6 feet apart- is too high at the current time. All schools may need to close . Although very young children seem to have less severe illness, they may still be actively infecting each other while in school and exposing vulnerable family members once home. Closing schools will demand urgent and thoughtful community-wide action to protect the children's physical,emotional and cognitive health. Older siblings ,parents and other family members can guide young children in many effective and rewarding ways. As this article clearly points out, it is so very important to protect and support all of our health-care workers in every way that is possible. Think it through and protect each other.
6
As an introvert who thrives in solitude, I have been preparing for this my whole life.
29
The social distancing message is so important, on top of the "don't gather in large groups." The American people seem slow to comprehend that everything needs to be different to slow this down. We shouldn't be going to the gym or houses of worship. We should seriously consider halting all non-essential gatherings. Why are we arguing over whether 250 or 1000 is the magic number, or 3 feet or 6 feet?
12
@paula This epidemic will last for months. Even people who stay at home most of the time will still have to be able to safely go out and buy groceries. So, they will have to keep a safe distance from other shoppers, the grocery store clerks, etc.
@paula We wouldn't be as "slow to comprehend" if our "government" wasn't so mealy-mouthed about the severe threat we're facing (WH!!!). Clear, factual information, along with the best recommendations for dealing with this, at all levels, was/is what's needed.
But, as we're seeing, the friendly folks at fox news have been sending the "no big deal" message to those who are susceptible to nonsensical analyses of the situation, enforced, daily, by the impeached "president" making a show of shaking hands with everyone, bragging about "no big deal", how great HE feels, "the numbers", etc., ad nauseum.
And "social media" is worse!
So the lack of response is logical. Pathetic, but logical.
Cancel the St. Patrick's Day Parade in New York City. Permitting the gathering of large crowds of people jammed in against one another is irresponsible.
11
@Elliot I agree but it's easy for me to agree because I'm not a fan of parades...but it make me wonder: what about the NYC subway? 4 million + people per day ride it, often with somebody's armpit directly over their head. I'm just not sure where one draws the line at this point. As far as the parade, my guess at this point is that it goes on but that many schools and organizations opt not to participate this year.
3
Thanks, Max Brooks.
Well said. I’m glad to see someone thinking in a sociohistorical context.
By the way, your mother made me want to be an actress, she made it look important and authentic and yes, still glamorous. I miss her. I bet you do, too.
And protect your father! He is a national treasure!
When it’s all over maybe he can write a musical about it? Too soon?
Much love, a big fan of your whole family and looking forward to the new book!
8
Went to Costco, a week ago Monday. Yes, people were “stocking up” more than usual. Went back today to get ZipLoc bags, mozzarella cheese, and lens wipes. There were only 12 carts left to be used. Walked in, saw that the checkout lines were backed up to the back of the store, and walked right back out. People are going crazy.
7
I just read a brief and very disquieting article about the 1918 Spanish Flu on history.com. Although I knew a bit about that deadly plague, the piece reminded me of three important facts, all of which are relevant in the present situation.
1). It was called the Spanish flu because that’s where it was first reported. Spain was not involved in WWI, and the other European countries, not wanting to undermine their war efforts, didn’t allow reporting on the phenomenon. The combination of secrecy and the mass movement of troops around the world almost certainly helped the virus’s rapid spread.
2) The Spanish flu actually had a lower apparent mortality rate than covid 19. Half a billion people were affected, out of a total global population of under two billion. The disease killed more people than the war did. The equivalent today, of course, would be nearly quadruple that.
3) The first wave of the flu, in the spring of 1918, was not a particularly lethal strain. But during the summer of 1918 it mutated into something much more virulent, so that a second wave in the fall brought massive death tolls around the world.
The conclusions? Quarantine is the most effective barrier to widespread distribution; a disease that fells the old and fragile may mutate and strike even harder at the young and healthy; and a drop in cases doesn’t necessarily spell the end of an epidemic.
Those who are ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it.
17
@Judith Nelson I've often read that the "Spanish Flu" began in the USA in 1917 in many locations in 1917. Maybe Yanks gave it to Europe.
1
Well, the fools at Dallas City Hall never heard nor care about social distances to prevent the spread of the Corona virus. Instead they are going full steam ahead for Saturday's March 14 St. Patrick's Day Parade, potentially exposing the 120,000 visitors to the virus who can then infect others.
This is not just stupid, this is criminal. Emails to local news organizations, even the Governor of Texas have remained unanswered. Let's not mess with our profits, people don't matter. Or, as a conservative activist wrote on twitter: people die at 80. What kind of a scr*wed-up society have we become?
11
@Don Juan No one is being forced to attend. The smart people will stay well away from that event but others may go and face the possible consequences.
4
@Don Juan The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, one of the biggest money-making events for the area, with people attending from all over the country, was finally shut down today.
But if the folks who attend spread the virus, that could hit the folks smart enough not to attend.
1
thanx for your article, Max. Blessings to you and your father. your Mom was an angel and I miss her very much.
11
The Census Bureau is about to mail a letter to every household in America. There should be an informational enclosure: "Understanding the COVID-19 Coronavirus." The main graphic should be the one from this morning's NYT article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Science
It makes sense of the measures being suggested to slow the inevitable spread of the contagion.
Use this opportunity!
Also Census enumerators doing follow-up at tons of millions of households need to be trained in social distancing and supplied with hand sanitizer.
4
I have always detested hand-shakes and standing close enough to be in contact with strangers. Now we have elbow bumps and foot taps. Why?? Why do we need to touch someone? Why not simply give a sincere greeting and maybe a slight head nod?
17
@TDD You sneeze into your elbow and then do an elbow bump. How often do you wash your coat/jacket? A nod of the head sounds ok. A dignified bow might suit more formal occasions.
6
The time for social distancing and spread avoidance measures was yesterday. The messaging from the Trump administration has been confusing and dangerous.
There was a feeling that things got out of hand in China because they were incompetent, but we are finding out how hard this virus is to contain and how easily a health system can be overwhelmed.
The earlier we adopt the measures that drive the transmissions coefficient below 1, the earlier this epidemic begins to subside. The lower we keep the background infection rate the easier it will be to handle the cases that become critical.
6
When we first saw the government of China’s response many thought it to be incompetent. Now viewing what our governments response has been we now know that our leaders are second to none in incompetence. Wash your hands and wait for your test.
1
How many people will share the sentiment that they should consider the impact of their behaviour on the well being of others, specifically the elderly or immunocompromised? How many will act on it? I recall having mentioned this idea to one person in relation to her refusal to get a 'flu shot, and her response was "I don't care. They can stay home." The support for Donald Trump has shown taht a large percentage of the American population can be extremely selfish.
37
A server at a restaurant I frequent was sniffling and coughing into her arm. She told me her allergies were acting up. Worryingly, I looked up the differences and learned that with Coronavirus, Fever, Aches and Chills, are Expected - not so with Allergies. It seems to me, with all this talk of keeping your hands away from your FACE to protect from Coronavirus, FACE (Fever Aches Chills Expected) would be a good acronym to remember for those who are wondering which ailment is affecting them - or others.
6
@Ken cooper A coughing told me the same thing. I never knew allergies caused persistent coughing but I guess I have more to learn.
I'm also a writer who's had to cancel signings for a new book. (But at least I work at home!) The consequences of this pandemic are endless.
4
As a high school teacher, in a state that thus far has only a few hospitalized folks ill with the virus, I am staying aware but nevertheless hoping that eventually we are instructed to work from home along with our students for a while. Our school, no matter how many times we post signs and tell students to wash their hands, is a veritable petri dish for any virus. Teens are generally lovely human beings, funny and idealistic, but they DO NOT wash their hands for 20 seconds (or nearly enough), and they cough and sneeze on everything, and touch everything and everyone, and they move about all day long, covering the whole of the building as they move from class to class.
Thus once this thing really gets going, even in our not yet adversely affected state, we teachers all figure that schools will be a nightmare of infection. Imagine interacting far too closely with hundreds of kids a day...imagine them all going home to families they further infect. If we don't close schools for a few weeks down the road--and do this state by state as needed, this virus will blow up in unimaginable ways. Yikes.
25
@Eva Lockhart well said. This is exactly why I had to stop teaching in a brick-and-mortar environment. I have MS and the kid germs literally just about killed me. My heart goes out to all the teachers who are tasked with handling what will inevitably be a huge nightmare in our public schools. Wouldn’t it be nice to hear some guidance from the president or our “Be Best” First Lady. Oh but I forget, she made it clear that she really doesn’t care. I hope that common sense will win and that online learning will be implemented to minimize contamination. There is no amount of money in this world that someone could pay me to be in your shoes.
9
@Eva Lockhart I'm a high school teacher too and I totally agree. Well said.
6
@Eva Lockhart I would add that I don't know of many schools that are equipped to allow students to wash their hands immediately before lunch. There are hand sanitizer dispenser s around—when they are filled.
5
You do not have to convince me to keep my distance. The chance of getting this disease is high if one does not take precautions.
11
Max - it’s time people stood up for their rights at work; their rights to NOT get sick. Being PC or afraid and not telling the sneezing, runny nose, red-eyed inconsiderate person in the cubicle/office/desk near you is just stupid. This epidemic is quite real and a LOT more dangerous than a common cold (don’t EVER listen to that idiot Trump). Make him/her go home; make your boss make him/her go home, NOW. Let them be paid. If they infect the office it will cost the employer many times more, as if that need be the motivation.
Just watch the spread at Trump’s hate rallies. There is no exemption for Republicans. Lies will not protect them any more than they protected Trump from Impeachment.
16
it never felt better to be friendless than right now. No hugs, kisses, handshakes, dates, crowds...ah the life of a hermit. I recommend it.
19
@alocksley
awwww
4
Social distancing.
Oh, please call it as it is, a pandemic and we need to quarantine.
4
@Futbolistaviva
"social distancing" is ONE way of avoiding the spread of a pandemic virus. Quarantine is a more drastic solution for someone who believes to have symptoms.
11
The fact that Fox News is calling it the China Virus is also horrendous. You are absolutely correct in talking about social distancing which has been effective in China. My son and his wife who live in Hong Kong have done that since the outbreak began as well as only going out for necessities. They have worn masks and I believe that if everyone wore masks then wouldn't that then prevent some people who already have the virus, but don't know they do, from passing it on? They have also made a practice of wiping down their phone and putting all clothes straight into the washer and then jumping in the shower. It isn't just hands that are vulnerable. But, bottom line is they have really kept their distance. They are now with family in Nanning in in home quarantine where the family, like all others are only allowed out on certain days. I believe there are now no cases in Nanning but the government is erring on the side of caution and allowing more time so the spread doesn't re-emerge.This is what it takes and we need to get serious now.
10
@Sally M
The virus originated in China so calling it the China Virus is accurate. Human behavior in the face of the unknown or illness is well, human, and has not changed since the days of the plague. Calling the virus something other than what it actually is will not change the worst aspects of human behavior. Sorry.
1
Seeing a NY Times article by Max Brooks on coronavirus isn't exactly reassuring. I guess it really is a zombie apocalypse then?
10
Asymptomatics need to consider they can spread to the vulnerable - like someone can spread to someone you care about. CDC says over 60 or underlying health issues at any age.
6
I am surprised the NYTimes editors allowed the author to reference an eight day old estimate of the mortality rate for the coronavirus. Here is a more recent, and perhaps more nuanced discussion.
https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/
That said, I agree with the overall point made in the piece. Social distancing seems prudent in this situation.
3
@Richard Meraz even if the death rate is 1% Its 1000% more deadly than flu’’: I studied arithmetic in 4th grade
@Richard Meraz The 2 day old story you referenced says the mortality rate is 3.4%. We know the infection number and the mortality number are moving targets, but without more testing data (!), especially here in this country, there's no data to suggest a lower mortality rate, ESPECIALLY not the "hunch" from the "no gloves, no test" impeached "president".
1
A bit surprised the elegant and demonstrative Japanese bow - ojigi - has not caught on as opposed to the clumsy arm and foot improvs that are getting media attention. A not for casual greeting, a waist bow for more formality. Perfect at over a meter and time-efficient for groups, too.
11
We all need to do our part? We vote-staying in line hours-to ensure a capable government is assigned just for cases like this. So now not only do we work hard, pay taxes, vote, now in the end it's up to each person for survival? Ludicrous....
2
Hmmm. Looks like a great time to be a socially awkward introvert.
34
I’ve been training for this moment my whole life.
7
Now we can cancel plans freely! "Not going here; nope, not there either! Take it up with the coronavirus!"
6
@Bruce
You don't understand introversion. It is not one who is 'socially awkward' although perhaps you'e just being glib.
Being an introvert means needing time alone to recharge ones batteries. Not that it really matters when discussing a pandemic virus. Just thought you should know.
1
It is hard to do social distancing when you have people like anti-science Rep Louis Gohmert refusing to follow scientists' guidelines after being exposed to the virus and other Trump supporters saying the virus is a hoax.
7
@Jacquie
And what about all the folks who may feel pressured to shake the hand of Trump (who has been exposed)?
1
@Wocky They should be smart enough not to be shaking hands at present.
"But what is the alternative? Bring an infection home to my 93-year-old dad? "
Max, we would never forgive you, we need him more than ever to make us laugh again!
17
A disruption of life is needed and a new social way of doing things should replace it. This means doing things very differently and relying on our technology to make up the difference and space in social distancing. Classes? Not in class anymore--put everything online for a while and teach via the internet. Friends gathering? Go to Zoom and schedule meeting to see everyone online and interact that way. Eating out? Hmm. Eat in more and eat with some distance. Companies not providing paid sick leave? Pass a law making it mandatory and support companies if they need it. This needs lots of leadership and creativity, stuff the president should be doing--he should be shown bumping elbows and speaking less. Yes, more tweets from Trump. But if he sets an example and if our governors follow suit then we can slow the spread until a vaccine will be ready by next summer. That's a long way away but it can be done. And, get the countries of the world to compel China to stop the trade and consumption of exotic animals and wet markets and crack down on the illegal ones. This indulgence is costing lives and this industry needs to be shut down with severe prejudice.
16
How does social distancing work on mass transit? It doesn't.
So, what would be the point of putting into place a social distancing policy without shutting down all public and commercial transportation including trains, subways, buses, vans, planes, boats, etc.
If we do not shut down all mass transportation systems immediately what is the point of school closures, avoiding large gatherings and public events, or even washing hands?
I would love for Mr. Brooks, or better an expert official explain how we are slowing Covid-19 from spreading by social distancing by closing schools, not attending basketball games or festivals, but still keeping our mass public transit system up and running. To me, it is one or the other not both.
8
@SparkyTheWonderPup
I agree that mass transit can be catastrophic, but mostly if it's crowded. Look at photos of mass transit in Japan and elsewhere, once *other* measures were in place. More generally, the less contact the better. The idea is to slow the spread -- we have passed the point of stopping it. I don't mean to sound unfair about your message, but what it is "to you", "to me", or to Mr Brooks is unfortunately kind of beside the point: think "us". That's why it's called *public* health.
7
Transportation is still essential to deliver essential services, but putting 25k people in Madison Square Garden isn't. That's 25k people that won't come in contact with one another needlessly. Any reduction in transmission flattens the curve. The Times has a lovely piece today explaining exactly why that is helpful.
13
@SparkyTheWonderPup
Are you suggesting that we just shut down virtually everything except hospitals, police and fire departments, government meetings, and grocery stores? How about gas stations?
If so, for how long?
1
Everything I have been reading states the coronavirus fatality rate is likely much lower for the overall population given how many cases have probably gone undiagnosed/reported. Let's make sure our opinion writers include the facts and don't spread more panic. ProPublica has some great, factual coverage.
5
@LizS how reassuring it’s only 1% will die. But what about the percentage of people with weak immunity, cancer survivors, old folks, high blood pressure? They may be in the 15% death rate. How reassuring.
4
Everyone in New York should read this. I'm a lifelong Democrat but Cuomo and of course, our president, are taking ineffective measures to appease the stock market, which isn't buying it. Bring the national guard to a little suburb continuing to allow its residents to travel freely and alowing large crowds to continue to gather in NYC. We can take drastic measures now or later, after the damage has been done.
6
It would be nice to have some compassionate, responsible, and competent leadership.
11
6 feet in a metropolitan location like NYC and the suburbs? No trains, subways, buses, taxis. No walking on many busy streets. No shopping for food or drugs. No school. Just stay home?
But Max is correct ... 6 feet social distancing is required!
So, we need to drastically reduce the people in public, and maybe we need to implement "space" rationing. Maybe, you are allowed to leave you house ONLY on certain specific days, except for essential, emergency workers (who must be tested ASAP and approved). Method of allocating the days (by household) need to bee determined and strict enforcement would be required.
Meanwhile, if you can kick me, we are too close ...
7
Excellent article. My spouse and I are in our 80,s and have health issues. You are one of our “go to people” for our keeping up on life which is often beyond reach, but still important.
21
Hiding-in-place is a traditional, conservative and morale-improving non-governmental tactic, which will, at a minimum, delay the spread of the virus, so that our medical facilities can better accommodate it.
Ironically, it will be Democratic governors who will be ordering and/or promoting social distancing.
Bottom line: try as they will, it will be hard for Democrats to successfully blame Trump for the virus or the "government" response to it.
1
To be clear, any actions that are being taken at this point are not weapons, they are defensive moves to either slow the number of exposures and/or risk of transmission of the virus. Until a vaccine is developed, tested, and approved, we will remain weaponless and need to employ every practical defensive measure at our disposal. Social distancing is most certainly one of those measures. All "owners" of gathering places should make moves now to assist in this defense.
3
From the current data, it can be calculated that when people do nothing to prevent the virus from spreading, each infected person has a ~15% chance per day of passing the virus on to someone else. It can also be calculated that at this 15% rate of spread, the number of worldwide infections will max out at about 105 MILLION, which is about 1000 times the number of infections today.
But if people take common sense measures (hand washing, social distancing) to slow the infection rate from 15% per day to 5% per day, then the number of worldwide infections is projected to max out at just 500,000, or 5 times the number of infections today. That's the math of exponential growth: a 10% reduction in the spread rate reduces the asymptotic number of global infections by over 100 million.
That is why it is SO IMPORTANT for every individual to take steps to control the spread. Do your part. Take this seriously. Wash your hands. Avoid large gatherings. Stop blaming your political opponents, and do what is necessary to prevent catching and spreading this virus. Containing this thing is more up to every one of us than it is up to our politicians.
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@Htb Asymptotic analysis is hard to understand just skimming the internet. Is the point that with high social distance we need less herd immunity than if there's low social distance?
However, in both cases that is counting on herd immunity, and so far what I'm reading is that immunity seems to last four weeks max. Ugh.
@Jennevans
Should have cited my source: 3 blue 1 brown, best math tutorials on the internet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
The purpose of social distancing is to flatten the tsunami wave of people getting sick with coronavirus, so people don’t all get sick at the same time. Can we agree that a tsunami is more catastrophic than slowly rising waters? Let’s not swamp our hospitals with patients all at once.
If you can work from home, or stay six feet away from people, or avoid going to a crowded event, you are helping to protect your community.
If you can wash your hands before touching something another person is going to touch, you can protect them.
It’s the ultimate random act of kindness. It seems small and maybe looks insignificant. And yet, you might keep someone out of the hospital. Which makes that hospital bed available for whoever really needs it.
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It is probably the only thing we can do until a vaccine is developed or the virus declines due to the change in temperature and humidity as we move into the summer. Although one thing I haven’t heard mentioned is that as we in the norther hemisphere move into summer, the Southern Hemisphere moves into winter,
3
@T Smith
I'm not convinced that weather matters.
Consider that Singapore with 80+ cases
is one degree north of the equator, and therefore
always hot.
25
@Zetelmo
The warmer weather allows liquids on surfaces (including those left by infected bodily fluids) to dry more quickly. Viruses, unlike bacteria and fungi that can remain dormant, are particularly fragile outside of their host. Singapore, as a region, has one of the highest population densities on the globe thus allowing for the possibility of contagious transfer regardless of climate.
9
The implied question in this article is for us to consider what we can or should do along these lines. For example, in my role as chairman of a local school council with a meeting tonight, I will see if I can shift the meeting from our cozy library to the more open cafeteria or gym, and perhaps consider an audio stream so people who are interested can follow without needing to attend in person.
I assume that safe practices on a small and medium scale also benefit, even if decisions to hold or cancel a giant public parade, sporting event or political rally individually have a bigger impact.
11
@john
As chair of a local school council, you should be shifting all classes to online. Their is no way to prevent community transmission in schools, no matter how much hand sanitizer or soap is used.
Great piece, Mr. Brooks. Congratulations on the new Book, I’ve been waiting.
Best Wishes.
7
Living in the Boston area, I wasn't entirely surprised when Governor Baker announced a state of emergency for the state of Massachusetts yesterday. The number of presumptive cases more than doubled in a day. In light of the lack of testing kits, I am left to wonder what the actual number of cases are present in our state. I woke this morning to the local news where excerpts of his solemn speech highlighted mitigation attempts secondary to the appearance of community spread throughout the commonwealth. A few moments later the television crew was reporting live from the Boston Flower Show, interviewing the director of the show. The expectation is that over 60,000 attendees will be present at this show. What gives?
25
The failing NY Times just kidding is doing a great service by having these types of articles versus the doublespeak of our elected morons. Deny deny deny, no global warming no payoffs to porn stars no epidemic. Cancel the pandemic department. If anyone from the Biden campaign is reading this please keep his message in the debate very simple. You have lied to us you have lied to your wife you cannot be trusted. Don't fall into the trap of engaging in an adolescrnt cut fight. Tell the people he is a danger to the well being of all of us. Cozying up to the brutal dictators-Putin, MBS -Kim Jong- Turkey- Syria. Stay on message. Bring the long list of promises made that have not been kept. Bring up the amount of people who have left the administration and have been fired. Stable genius he is not.
18
Speaking engagements can be done on IG Live or one of the other "live" functions of social media. There can even be a Q and A. In this day and age, no one should be at a loss when "in person" events are cancelled.
1
@Lynn in DC
Well we rave about technology all the time for pointless use. When we need technology then no one knows how to use it.
Madison Avenue markets well to the American people.
3
@Tony
Tech is easier than ever. Most of my colleagues, over 35, frequently use Zoom for meetings.
We shouldn't avoid using helpful applications for fear "no one knows how to use (tech)"!
1
Nice idea, but not the real answer. Three nations/regions have achieved actual and dramatic reduction of spread and number of COVID-19 cases: Singapore, Hong Kong, and China. In China new cases are down from 2,000 a day to around 90 a day, and over 99% reduction, already saving hundreds of thousands of cases from happening.
Dr. Bruce Aylward's investigatory tour of China for WHO, reported in The Times, showed how it's done (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html)
1. Identify all cases as instantly as possible. By screening everyone in all places for fever, sending all with fever to COVID centers, getting a 5 minute lung CT, swab only those with symptoms and + CT.
2. Isolate. They have proven 75-80% of the spread is in the HOME, not workplace. Isolation means living in a COVID isolation building, COVID outfitted hospital until no longer contagious.
Do this and our risk for new cases plummets.
Don't do this and our nation will see numbers continue to soar.
Social distancing is part of the solution for sure, and a great idea, and should be practiced, but it far from sufficient to make a huge dent in this threat. If we don't hug or shake, but don't identify most of the first cases in affected homes, and then send those we do identify into their homes, spread will go on quite furiously still.
13
@Arthur Lavin, MD
I don't think China is a good example to quote numbers for, their government is like ours one lie after another. We have a president who is deliberately shaking hands to show that he isn't a carrier? Pride goes before a hard fall. Note the ridiculous GOP politician in the gas mask last week, is he laughing now? or is he happy that he is a politician who will get the medical care that no one else
How in the world can we trust anything that they tell us.
This administration has failed the American people and we cant look to the future we need to deal with the here and now.
Can we finally get the kits to our medical people today or is it next week? Please just tell the truth, we are not children we are adults who have family members that we desperately love and want to have a future with them.
1
Yes, in the absence of a vaccine or effective anti-viral medicine, the only way to limit this sort of epidemic is keeping people separate from one another for a period longer than the incubation period of the virus. This means - in a democratic country where certain rights are constitutionally guaranteed - shutting down everything except hospitals, certain essential government services, grocery stores pharmacies, public utilities, the police, the army etc.
It means everyone will have to spend 2-3 weeks at home or very close to home, with no traveling, no meetings or group entertainments or going to work or to church or to sporting events. Read books, watch movies, etc.
This was done in China and seems to be working. This was begun just a few days ago here in Italy, but it is too early to detect any improvement. The scientists say it will work. Patience is required.
Failure to do this - shut the country down - will kill thousands of people in short order. Other effects of the epidemic will be severe.
Oh, do not listen to Donald Trump, He is an idiot, knows nothing, cares for no one but himself. Listen to your local state authorities, the CDC, the WHO, serious and reputable epidemiologists, doctors and other people who understand the science. Don't get your information from Twitter, Facebook or aunt Annie. Trust State and local govt. websites, mainstream newspapers and medical journals, major TV channels (be skeptical of FOX, however) and follow the rules, no exceptions.
84
How about a friendly smile and "hello" for a greeting?
With all the colds and reg. flues going around every year, we need to re-think the social hug/kiss/and yes, sometimes, the handshake.
6
@SLB This sounds like living a life in fear, not to mention ignoring the need for physical contact that we all have.
@Daniel
The life of fear is what we are living and have been living now because we have an ignorant leader in charge who knows nothing and refuses to think and learn. Refuses to be a leader of the greatest rainbow country of the world for that simple reason because he is a bigot..
I can do without hugging if it will keep my mother alive and my friends parents alive.
4
@Daniel
I resent having strangers expect me to touch them when we meet....in normal times, that is how colds and flu spread. I live in an area where doctors try to shake the patient's hand in the examining room.....setting a good example? No! Threatening to a sick patient? Very much.
1
My family has been practicing social distancing for several weeks.
The coronavirus has not been contained so avoiding exposure surely seems worthwhile and the best method to curtail the spread.
Doesn’t our president have enough common sense to understand? Does he really believe staying calm - the coronavirus will go away is appropriate and true? Dr. Fauci says the worst is yet to come.
The worldometer website is tracking cases around the world. If you believe the data from China, new cases have declined to only 36 today. In the USA, Italy, France, and a few others the new cases are still growing. We will probably see a spike when test kits are out and confirm that many people do indeed have Covid-19.
Furthermore, even being asymptomatic doesn’t mean you’re not a carrier. There are a lot of people with compromised immune systems or who are taking medications that weaken their abilities to fight off viruses. We shouldn’t be so selfish as to endanger their lives because there are things we want to do.
20
Here in Hong Kong we have had success in slowing down the few community outbreaks of COVID-19 because, among other things, we have been practicing social distancing for many weeks, which has included school closures (schools remain closed through at least 20th April).
Wash those hands!
47
Great article! Right now, we have no cases reported in my neck of the woods- SW Virginia- but we should all practice social distancing for these reasons:
If it prevents us from catching a common cold or the flu, our immune systems should be healthier when the coronavirus eventually does hit.
It gets us to ingrain these actions in our daily habits.
And perhaps the coronavirus IS in our communities, it just has not been seen in tests yet.
15
@John Dyer
Social distancing also reduces unplanned pregnancies.
5
I think preparedness and institutional measures geared in stymying the spread of the virus is very important. Also, Donald Trump’s outright denial of the severity of the outbreak is indeed alarming. However, the fatality rates are high among those that were already susceptible to death via traditional flue-related complications (pneumonia, cancer, underlying illness): elderly people in hospice and nursing facilities. I don’t think it is particularly helpful to brand those questioning the most recent W.H.O. fatality statistics as conspiratorial, or worse still, supporters of Donald Trump. There is still significant underreporting of mild cases of coronavirus, with only the more conspicuous incidents of infection being accurately reported.
While yes, stay safe, and use ample precaution, but signs may indicate this will be a slightly more severe version of the flue, with only a marginally higher fatality rate.
3
We do know that in a healthcare system that is able to stay on top of it, where people have been socially distancing, the fatality rate will be much lower than in an overwhelmed system.
1
Flu*
I like the article, however I don't think there's any reason to believe that the coronavirus is as bad as the 1918 Spanish Flu. I believe the assertion is very misleading and can cause unnecessary panic.
For one, in South Korea the death rate is 0.65% according to one of the articles you link to. The rate of testing in South Korea is far greater than anywhere else in the world and thus they should have a more accurate figure for death rate.
Two, I have read that perhaps between 3 and 5 percent of the world's population died from the Spanish flu. Thus I have no idea how a 2.5% death rate could be true! 50 million people died when the world's population was far lower (before the "baby boomer" generation). I suspect the Spanish flu death rate and for that matter the coronavirus death rate are both being massaged for the express purpose of causing fear in people.
Three, Italy has a very old population overall and most of the deaths there are of people in their 80s and 90s. Actually, the population of the entire world is far older than in 1918, as the life expectancy is something like 25 years higher. This is a population that is also prone to dying from the seasonal flu... it's estimated that over 60% of all seasonal flu deaths are of those aged 65 and older.
Anyway, there are a lot of reasons why I believe comparing coronavirus to Spanish Flu is not a good comparison, especially if coronavirus somehow comes out as more dangerous. I don't believe it is at all.
5
@Daniel What you don't understand is that these viruses mutate and the more people who are infected the more viruses there are out there to mutate and become lethal. All of these nonexperts who comment on this stuff add only confusion. The longer this goes on the more dangerous it becomes.
8
@Jon Mostly there are non-experts posting and spreading fear of other people, fear of elevators and doorknobs, and fear of whatever else. Besides I have read from a credible source that a virus is extremely unlikely to mutate in any particularly dangerous way during the short span of an outbreak. I will try to find that when I have a chance, but I think the scary mutation argument is generally a busted myth at this point.
6
Not clear how travel bans cannot still be effective in reducing the number of potential cases. I don’t think “it’s too little, too late”.
@Shamrock After people from Wuhan boarded planes to various corners of the globe, travel bans became too little too late most likely. The virus has already spread widely in the world, I don't think travel bans can do much other than destroy the economy a bit more thoroughly.
2
@Daniel Still no explanation why travel bans would not help to slow the spread. If not, why cancel sporting events?
@Shamrock The virus has spread widely in the world, but community transmission in particular areas can be limited by canceling sporting events and other gatherings. Travel bans are far more disruptive due to stranding people in places away from their home. Yes, people probably should refrain from taking their pleasure vacation, but some forms of travel are really necessary at this time.
2
I do not understand how a truly asymptomatic virus carrier transmits a virus. If the person is not coughing or sneezing (so no droplets being emitted) does this mean the virus is emitted through the person's breath? The alternative is that the person has extremely mild symptoms, so mild that they aren't aware that they have symptoms (in which case presumably they will not see medical care). Does the medical community understand the phenomenon of asymptomatic transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19? Am I right in assuming that this form of transmission is likely to be rare or do we just not know at this point?
27
@AJB I think there's still some lack of knowledge and the uncertainty is what causes people to fear the virus more. I would tend to think it's less likely for an asymptomatic person to spread the virus unless they tend to spit a lot when they talk or touch their mouth and then shake hands.
2
Yes, you emit the virus through your breath if infected. This is true of cold and flu viruses before you actually start presenting symptoms. That’s how one can potentially be infected within six feet of someone carrying the virus. It’s not because their sneeze or cough might carry six feet. Think about how far your breath moves when you can see it on a cold day.
As far as the frequency of asymptomatic transmissions, that has yet to be determined.
13
@Daniel With all due respect, this is the sort of thinking we don't need. "I would tend to think" is not science. What seems intuitively true "no symptoms, no contagion" is not in fact the case. We all need to listen to the scientists. Not second guess them with what "seems" true to us.
2
I work at Harvard, where asking the students to leave campus is a sad event for all of us. But everyone understands that we have to do our part to delay the spread. I'm telling my students: think of the person who needs a ventilator, and there isn't one available. By changing our behavior, we might help that person. They all understand.
98
Hope NYC public schools follow suit and if not close schools, at least make in-person attendance optional for students/teachers/administrators (without penalty).
@Richard Lee
Yes, this will difficult, especially for international students. But there's a large focus of infection at the biotech firms in Cambridge. Also, Harvard and MIT are the sites of important biomedical research - insofar as that work can continue at all, it may be best to reduce the surrounding activities.
2
Thanks for this perspective. Might you have misread the article you cite about being infectious for 6 weeks? I read that article to say that the infection was circulating for 6 weeks through other people before it resurfaced, but not that an individual was contagious for 6 weeks.
11
I remain extremely concerned that the PAC-12 Tournament is allowing thousands of attendees to witness a sequential series of games in the Las Vegas T-Mobile Arena this week (20,000 capacity per game). This alarming decision equates to thousands of people pouring through multiple air hubs, the corresponding plane flights, then tight seating in the arena. What can they be thinking and where is the CDC and Dr Anthony Fauci on this possible contagion nightmare? Given Coronavirus information to date, their choice is beyond irresponsible (and could be deadly for some who are exposed).
36
Common sense tempered with compassion and humor! Bravo!
13
Perhaps worth mentioning that in 1918 there was no ability to produce a vaccine and that treatment methods - like today's modern breathing therapies, modern hospitals and, most importantly, antibiotics to treat follow on medical issues brought on by viruses - were not yet available, thus the very high numbers of dead.
I've read about these differences between then and now.
We are in a much more advanced world medically.
But, the basics, as laid out by this article stand completely. This virus, even with our advances, is quite deadly.
32
"We are in a much more advanced world medically. "
Really ? So what good does having a couple great tools do when the no stores stock them and your own government & certain block headed politicians have actually fought against having them ? I keep hearing folks talk about how modern and "Tech" we are, yet we can't even manufacture a face mask ! And we have off shored almost all our production of drugs to an enemy of America. Well, some also to an Island of American "citizens" who have been totally ignored in the face of a devastating Hurricane because they happen to have Brown skin. Yes, modern breathing therapies have kept my wife alive. At this point in time there aren't enough of those resources to help but a tiny tiny infinitesimally small portion of the population. All due to economic reasons.
Some advanced medical world - a whole box of tools -no ability or wherewithal to use them.
29
@Paul King As I understand it, should a patient develop pneumonia it cannot be treated with antibiotics because it is caused by a virus. At this juncture, we do not have an anti-viral treatment for sick patients (or a vaccine for persons not infected). Patients' breathing can be assisted but I believe that right now it is down to their immune system to challenge the virus.
11
@Paul King and none of those things will do any good if hospitals are overwhelmed by the steep rate of infection.
5
A very thoughtful, compassionate, common sense approach in handling this new normal way of life.
35
Public health education is something that our government leaders have deemed unimportant and unnecessary to fund. What a grave error. Now, people in all industries and communities are misinformed and confused about what to do. I noticed yesterday that the CDC and HHS have just received some emergency authorization to staff 24/7 health information crisis response hotlines. I saw this on job listings on Indeed.com. Isn't a little too late?
During the 1918 flu pandemic that you described, the Wilson administration downplayed the spread of information about the virus and muzzled the press in order to keep people upbeat and focused on the war effort. Today, the Trump administration downplayed the threat and underfunded the preparation for this virus because they're afraid it will hurt his re-election chances and the economy. What will young people remember after all of this? I fear it will be: Do not trust your own government.
107
@ Sorka Good analysis. Your summary that the take- home message will be “Don’t trust your government” has I fear already invaded global politics. This has been the playbook for Putin for years at home and abroad, it is what lay the groundwork for Donald’ ascendance and
Assuredly his current re-election campaign. Chilling.
3
Recently watched PBS’s American Experience episode about the 1918 flu. There is a lot to learn from that. And we’re also fortunate to have a much greater understanding of viruses today.
4
@Sorka
NYT readers are a wise bunch, far-sighted, informed, practical. It would be a great idea if all coronavirus articles and editorial pieces were to have a reader comment section. Anybody for that?
So proud of you and your accomplishments Max! You’ve become a great writer. Being your teacher was a joy. Thank you.
136