I just couldn't stop wondering why no authority warned us to prepare for the global spread of the coronavirus. Which authority should bear the most responsibility？I would say the WHO has failed miserably when it repeatedly assured us that the situation in China wasn't such a catastrophic situation. The WHO has lost its credibility and legitimacy.
14
And what is the stable genius doing?
Tweeting!
Get rid of that virus...
60
@Welcome Canada
Please don’t tell us how to vote. Thanks.
9
Our society, our economy is not any 'healthier' than the least healthy among us ... #NotMeUs ... #Medicare4All
Affluence insulates us, it divides us, it minimizes our integrity, incites violence and drives us toward extinction ...
And then as a society we get slapped back to consciousness with fear of a pandemic that threatens to upend our affluent complacency ...
Common decency, kindness must underlie our motivation for answering the division ... we must care for one another, always ... that's the only way to evolve out of the madness...
23
Kudlow already out there saying we're going to throw some money at the Airlines. These are the same guys that scream socialism when it comes to Bernie Sanders. These guys are the real socialists and hypocrites....Tell the CEO's and executives of the airlines to take a pay cut to help their employees...right. Fat chance.
66
So go wash your hands of all the poor little peons who have no choice but to report to their job or be fired. You know, those less educated people who have no benefits. They are the ones who will suffer disproportionately, not the effete children of privilege who can telework and remain cocooned against Coronavirus.
24
@Tournachonadar
You sound borderline terrified. Healthy people have little to worry about. If you’ve been breathing air pollution for 15 years like the average Chinese citizen has, then your lungs are compromised and your fate will be far different.
8
When does Pres Trump take to his digital messaging and begin insulting the Corona virus with another alliterative combination? Cowardly Corona. Corona Cough up. Corny Covid.
19
@Bruce Egert
Wow, you’re really reaching for insults. The administration is doing a good job and this “crisis” will pass in short order.
6
A trustworthy voice would suffice.
7
Good! You all stay home so my girlfriend and I can have the theaters and restaurants to ourselves!
5
Why do almost all Hong Kong wear masks. Due to an abundance of caution. Infected, asymptomatic people can be out, walking around. Therefore, wearing masks can help reduce the virus’ spread. (Many HK people also immediately take off their clothes and shower when they get home.)
According to Sanjay Gupta on CNN’s website, the reason WHO has advised the public not to wear masks is to prioritize availability for frontline medical professionals - due to a [short term] shortage of masks. In other words, wearing masks is effective.
There is no longer a shortage of masks or hand sanitizer in Hong Kong. Shops are overflowing with product from all around the world. Yesterday I saw masks from Thailand, Indonesia, Japan, England, Germany, Colombia and other countries on sale.
But in the United States people don’t support free trade and think things like playing badminton and wearing masks are weird. So, suffer the consequences.
27
I think the hardest thing for people to grasp about a pandemic, global warming, nuclear war, etc., is that there may be no safe "there" outside the zone of destruction - i.e., a zone that will supply the necessities of life, medicine, the goods and services that make our economy work.
10
@humanist : people want to believe they can ward off THE PLAGUE by hoarding hand sanitizer (!!!), toilet paper, bottled water….which is ridiculous.
The same people laugh at Trump voters for "denying science"….
Ironic.
7
The government should get creative with its response:
1. The Fed is talking about buying other assets besides government securities, to expand its stimulative power. I think they should buy student loans for example and retire them.
2. The government should make sure that companies can let sick hourly employees stay home. They get a doctor's note before they go back to work, the company pays them as if they worked, and gets that back as a tax credit or direct reimbursement.
3. The government can help certain industries adversely impacted by a lack of demand. Airlines, restaurants, hotels, and health clubs are prime examples. Trump just gave $28 billion to farmers because of his trade war; industries that are getting punished through no fault of their own should get similar aid.
Wells Fargo just lowered its Q2 GDP forecast to 0.0% growth, so action is timely.
21
Robert Samuelson wrote, before COVID 19 struck, about the low grade corporate debt bomb, akin to 2007-2008, that is waiting in the wings like the housing debt bomb then. Persistently low interest rates have led to very risky low quality excess corporate borrowing. A COVID 19 economic shock can easily cause this to blow up if over-leveraged companies start defaulting due to lack of demand and/or supply chain disruption.
Jerome Powell should resign once Trump is out of power for his craven surrender to Trumps pressure campaign.
34
I’m waiting with bated breath for our dear Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross to do his victory lap, you know, the one he alluded to when commenting on how Covid-19 would bring all these manufacturing jobs back to America because you know, the virus was over in China and although it would cause some short-term supply chain issues, it was actually very good news for the US economy and bad news for the Chinese economy?
I knew that charlatan would live to rue the day those words drooled out of his sorry mouth and....here we are...
48
Nothing in our economies is as we are told. Divorce funded the offshoring removal of assets. The pet industry is huge and all local, 86 billion. The evisceration of the potential retirees into car vagabonds keeps them hidden and the auto support market afloat. Our housing supply is glutted with over 100 year old tinkered with homes, almost none able to be brought current even tho Mr Obama told us to do this, damn the cost.
We have casted America. The elite get modern built homes. The rest of us have much repaired and still not modern buildings that will always be a cost drain.
The tiny advantage of mall shopping from being in close contact with others has even been denied us.
What are we left with? Closet drinking to bring more sales to Ritalin producers thru our alcohol syndrome kids? We have been funneled into home sports on tv, or the twice yearly social event at church where they unlock the doors?
9
Media induced fear and basic propaganda at its height. pathetic
8
@Pilot : what is sad is that -- though a pandemic is quite serious and needs serious discussion -- the HYSTERIA AND FEAR MONGERING by the lefty media is not about our health or survival….but about "some new way to get rid of Trump".
10
This could worsen any brick and mortar business; it’s not so much that I fear picking up a disease in the store itself, but on public transportation on the way there. This is one of the few times I wish I could drive.
Already ill for several weeks with the bad seasonal flu that is now going around, the last thing I need is another infection on top of it.
I am having groceries delivered (one business that might be doing well), hoping that the delivery person didn’t come into contact with another household that is infected...
13
The author is being irresponsible when he says the US might quickly find a cure or a vaccine. Even if a cure or vaccine were proposed today, a cure or a vaccine would most likely take a minimum of a year to prove safe and effective. The NY Times should be editing out this nonsense.
37
Fear of death is enough to motivate people who are used to thinking that they can create a safe long life if they are only careful. They imagine being in that cohort that lives to 95, still driving themselves around town and enjoying a good meal with friends. That is our collective subconscious in the relatively wealthy western world. The same folks sitting out on the terraces of those confined cruise ships.
Fear of loss extends beyond that, of course, to all aspects of life. Salespeople are taught to subtly weave fear of loss into pitches; sale ends tonight, that's the last one in stock, confidentially? three other people are going to bid on that house and the owner will probably take the first good offer. Fear of loss, further loss. That is driving the market down (along with some of the fundamentals). Lock in your profits, step aside and come back when the smoke (virus) clears.
So what is the antidote? Good leadership and accurate information for starters so that the influencers, those who are reporting and analyzing the Corona Virus, can honestly set people a little more at ease. Some of that is happening but the Pence/Trump team is a joke; filtering the news through their political crystals.
Personally I sold off my small portfolio back in January, the market felt weirdly inflated. And I'm staying out of Costco though their stock may do well, no one wants to be in crowds. The sky is not falling but if you're my age, 70 or so, you may want to keep a good eye on it.
28
Per today's DOL monthly employment report for Feb. 2020, there are about 152.6 million total non-farm jobs in the US economy. Of this total: 108.5 million are private-service providing jobs (71.1%). Goods producing jobs amount to 21.2 million or 13.9% of this total. Since public or government sector jobs amount to 22.8 million (14.9%), there are about 129.7 million total private sector jobs in the US economy, or 85.0% of this total.
China's vigorous enactment of public health measures probably increased its citizens participation, reinforcement, and belief that they could "actively" battle this coronavirus, as well as the next, and not have to accept their "passive" fate, like the captives on the various cruise ships.
Respect for the elderly is often cited as a vital component of many Asian cultures. In contrast: the US relies on the entertainment industry with its fixation on youth, the gym industry and its provision of eternal youth, and young sports fans, who don't die but seem to just fade away as they age.
So, as important as the services sector is to more mature economies, like that of the US, the components of these service sector jobs and their cultural influence, are also critical.
[03/06/2020 Fri 12:30pm Greenville NC]
3
U.S. workers with no paid sick leave? Workers sick and soldering on the avoid their co-pays?
Amazing how the richest nation gets so many details wrong.
41
I know the NYT close allignement with the Democratic Party - but some of the articles are silly.
The slow down in the US economy will cause Trump to loose the election.
The collapse of China's manufacturing and consumer spending will cause what? China should be in recession (depression?) - and this is a Political system that requires 6-8% growth to keep the population docile. That is what I want NYT to report on.
My take:
- Looks like there is flow of manufacturing from China is now a stampede.
- Consumer spending in China has collapsed.
- there is a permanent rift between the Communist party and the general populous. The nationalist support against the HK protesters has evaporated.
8
@Tom I don’t consider the NYT closely aligned with the Democratic Party. You are welcome to differ. However:
The two items you want the Times to report on, Trump losing due to COVID-19 economic effects and the Chinese authoritarian system being damaged or collapsing are what will or might happen. They are opinions and are reported as such, not as news.
Reporting the news is about facts. The Times does this quite fairly. Compare it to Fox which suppresses science and CDC reports and just repeats Trump’s political spin on the COVID-19 poblem.
News includes asking experts what they think might happen. Mostly the experts say they’re not sure, and the Times reports that. If one says “no problem “ the Times reports that. If the federal government is unprepared, that is news and so are the reasons why it is unprepared.
What do you think is the line between Times reporting and Times opinion? Don’t shoot the messenger.
27
The NYT reports on these issues regularly and accurately, unlike the US government.
20
A report this morning on the virus from Hong Kong showed everyone in the camera view wearing a mask. It's not too hard to imagine if going out means wearing a mask not many people in this country will go out.
6
That’s a good thing as the masks provide no protection to the wearer. Only ill people should wear them.
6
@charles Per medical advice I have read the masks actually prevent outgoing spread of virus, not incoming infection.
6
Not accurate. Infected, asymptomatic people can be out, walking around. Therefore, wearing masks can help reduce the virus’ spread.
According to Sanjay Gupta on CNN’s website, the reason WHO has advised the public not to wear masks is to prioritize availability for frontline medical professionals - due to a [short term] shortage of masks. In other words, wearing masks is effective.
There is no longer a shortage of masks or hand sanitizer in Hong Kong. Shops are overflowing with product from all around the world. Yesterday I saw masks from Thailand, Indonesia, Japan, England, Colombia and other countries on sale.
But in the United States people don’t support free trade and think things like playing badminton and wearing masks are weird. So, suffer the consequences.
7
The spread of the map in Italy does gives an incorrect picture of the situation. There are 8 regions, including Sicily, Sardinia, Calabria, Bolzano, Aosta and Umbria where there are have been only one or two cases total. The real spread is in Northern Italy with the South barely touched. Five of the regions: Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, Veneto, Piedmont, Marche have 3,588 cases out of a total recorded 3,858. Of these 1790 show symptoms and 414 have recovered. The other piece of important information is that the average age of those who have died is 81 years
14
All this administration cares about is Money. People you are on your own, If you think Trump cares about you and the country you are most certainly a fool or a Trump supporter. This administration lies so much and so often not a word that they state can be believed without being fact checked. The one time when the truth would be very helpful- but what do we get lies and campaign rhetoric as usual. Trump and his enabler are unfit to govern this country they prove it everyday.
22
Very true jh. And the irony is that if Trump told the truth, most people would probably feel a bit more assured. Why? Because the fear is exponentially higher than the actual threat. Yeah that could change, but this is a classic case of fear of the unknown. It’s rarely rational.
The administration could put some fears to rest, or at least get ahead of the gossip. There aren’t enough test kits. So, Mr. Pence, what is being done to change that. Just one example.
This is a case where Trump’s lies and obfuscation hurt Trump, because a global recession (more and more likely by the day) would drive the final nail in his political coffin.
Talk about being conflicted!
5
While this is a serious event that requires an aggressive global response, I have seen no rational discussion in the media or even among scientists regarding the method by which the reported mortality rate for this virus has been calculated. Everyone acknowledges that testing has been woefully inadequate. Is it possible, even likely, that the actual number of individuals infected worldwide is two or even three times higher than the reported 100,000? If so doesn’t that drastically reduce the current mortality rate to some more like the current flu? I’m asking as a non-scientist frustrated with the current reporting.
10
Exactly. And that’s why if the idiot Trump could find any sense, he would be demanding more testing, not trying to limit it. He is an idiot. Well, that’s not exactly news is it?
19
If gym memberships are anything like they used to be when I used to go to the gym, Covid-19 will have little effect on gyms. It doesn't matter if you go to workout or not, you're paying your monthly fee. Unless, of course there are now pay as you go gyms?
Thinking people are already avoiding the movie theater, sporting events, and most gatherings where many people will be in close proximity to one another. There's no doubt that it will effect the bottom line of many businesses. So yes, GDP will be much lower when the dust settles from Covid-19 but it SHOULD be temporary.
And as has been the case for many years now, pain will be disproportionate among classes. Those living paycheck to paycheck, perhaps coming from the "gig economy", will be slammed to the bread lines. Those with big savings, especially the upper 10%, will do fine, providing they don't get Covid-19. Hmm...perhaps the new gig in the gig economy is going to be a personal food shopper, shopper-fodder for the wealthy? "Just slide it under the door and step back 6 feet, please."
9
So, many hope it lasts until November.
1
"there is reason to be concerned about the ultimate economic impact of the coronavirus in the United States."
Excuse me for butting in, but there was reason to be concerned two months ago about the effects. In a well-ordered society whose government is run for the benefit of the people, we would have seen an in-depth, orderly response designed to minimize the effects of the pandemic to slow its spread so as to not overwhelm services and disrupt our economy.
That response would have been filtered down to states and localities from the Director of Pandemics in Washington, a high government position within the Center for Disease Control, replete with dozens of logistics and coordination people directing all these efforts at a nationwide level.
Of course, by now we all know that President Obama, in his wisdom and foresight, created this infrastructure. The Republicans, under Trump, in their ignorance, have dismantled it. There is no Director of Pandemics at the CDC. There is no staff that works for him/her. It's "unfilled." Trump's paranoia about filling position with people that mibht not be loyal to him is more important to him that actually staffing and running the government.
So here we are.
44
@Kip Leitner
They dismantle.
And We the People are forced to pay the price.
The Dismantlers should pay the price!!!
7
@TheraP
They will in November...vote BLUE
7
@TheraP they will in November
2
My daughter was going to go on a business trip to Munich Germany in a couple of weeks. It was canceled due to the virus.
My wife and I are gong to Alabama in the summer. My wife says we are driving, not flying. Coronavirus is the reason.
We went shopping and the big item on the list was disinfectant wipes because of the virus. We did not find any.
Yes, the corona virus is changing our lives, how we shop and what we want to buy.
9
Once Wall St. investors and business leaders saw that Trump immediately started lying and continued to lie, confidence was lost and uncertainty gripped the markets.
Uncertainty is the enemy of the markets and business, especially in the trenches of supply chain strategy.
Trump tried to spin the virus today as good news for our economy, more startling and ridiculous comments than his previous takes.
If Trump intended to calm the markets today, he failed miserably.
20
CDC officials should issue a quarantine on the president's Twitter account. Nothing would be more effective at reducing the corona virus spread than slowing the spread of the president's misinformation.
18
The gaslighting of the American public by Trump, Republicans and Fox News will lead to more deaths. That is the result of ignorance, lies and a complete divorce from the facts. Electing incompetent people in the office has consequences and we are seeing that in the form of an evolving uncontrolled pandemic in the United States.
So much winning.
17
Beyond voodoo economics. This guy can't even do simple arithmetic. When over 100 million Chinese workers don't work that's going to have a much, much larger effect than a few thousand Americans missing work. Or basketball games.
6
The reaction the Wall Street “geniuses” and their software that control the stock market are having to each new case of coronavirus or a corona virus death is classic "Chinese Water Torture", no pun intended. The daily gyrations, up and down, mostly down, have reduced the value of the S&P at YE 12/31/19 by about 9.5% as of about noon today. Why don’t those “geniuses” do some intelligent predicting and drop the market value of our investment assets by another 25% or whatever the end game is and get it over with?
2
Reading the articles about the effects of the corona virus on the World and the US economy I immediately remembered Keynes expectations and its effects theory which I learned more than half century ago. And here we are disseminating systematically the worst scenario case which, if accepted by the public, will by itself effectively cause the recession. I hope the NYT starts quickly to publish some more objective articles showing what Mr. Goolsbee mentions briefly in one paragraph: "Nor is it to discount the possibility that the United States will be spared the worst effects...." I, for one am sure that in the US the corona virus cases will appear in a relatively moderate number of cases and therefore I call for not to panic, take care, keep calm and continue your good habits!
3
This epidemic, of unknown proportions, is causing me to kick into the Depression-era lessons I learned from my grandparents. Reduce -reuse-recycle, is something I've always done. Turn out the lights when leaving a room - ditto. But I'm making more soups with leftovers, then freezing them. Saving up a number of errands for just one trip with the car, saving gas.
Not going out to eat much if at all. Postponing all but the essentials. The planet will be happy, even if the economy isn't.
18
Until there is great number of tests, the public cannot be assured at all how big the problem. When one cannot get basic protection like hand sanitizer and masks in affected areas people have absolutely no confidence in a government that lies like fish swim. We also are not being made aware of positive steps to correct shortages.
It is hard to see "drive through" testing/screening in S. Korea and learn our corrective actions have been botched while WHO testing could easily have been deployed.
Most knew this govt.could not handle the job but it is hard to put good spin on a govt. that would prioritize campaign rally over active handling of public health issues.
16
I absolutely agree there will be a demand shock to a number of industries, travel being the number one hit. And I agree that it will certainly hit our economy at least as hard as it hit China's. On the other hand, health care spending will go way up as the hospitals fill up and overflow into tents in their parking lots. And all the industries that feed into medical should do well too. So as usual there will be winners. I bet that overall we'll be thrown into a recession but things will return to normal as people get it and get over it (at least most people), and can stop worrying about it. This would happen faster if we just let it happen, but unfortunately, that would make the flooding of patients into our hospitals even worse than it's going to be now and lead to more deaths than necessary.
2
I have stopped eating in all public restaurants till they supply wipes for the tables and chairs before we sit down ,ditto that they no longer bunch up forks ,spoons and knives where customers have to touch many utensils to just get one , I would even wish for
paper cups as having worked in restaurants I know the sanitation
methods vary and slip at times .
7
The economy is very strong. Even today new job numbers are good. The gyrations in the market are just an automated response.
Investors still believe the market is high and due for a correction. If anything, their anticipation of a correction has mitigated any overreaction to the virus.
6
@AACNY
Hope you are not a broker.
6
In agreement with the previous poster, who brought up climate change... this short term threat, to a small percentage of humans, is being treated as a crisis- all hands on deck. Meanwhile, the existential threat to humans, plants and animals is all but ignored. SUVs keep humming, developers keep cutting trees, coal continues to be mined and oil gets subsidies.
It boggles the mind, and leaves me so cynical for the future.
31
Our President insists we should just go about our daily lives. He tells us there is no more threat to this than any other flu virus. On the other hand, when it is learned that a CDC researcher maybe infected by the virus, Trump's trip there is abruptly cancelled. Do I have faith that this administration is leveling with the public? No, and neither should you.
101
I would not take the threats seriously especially since our most iare doing all we can to manage. Also what we now know is a lot more than what we knew during the peak Coronavirus crisis in China, a month ago. Actionable knowledge is more precious than gold and stocks as long as Americans are better informed and prepared than China was when it got hit out of the blue.
If I was living in Iran, I would be scared to death not because of Coronavirus but because Iran is totally ill prepared not expecting how to deal with a fast spreading contagion while enriching uranium. If there is suspicion of a person is infected. Guess what happens to that person. They get shot. Yes shot with a stream of disinfectant. That is not the way to treat a person who is infected. Iran has the audacity to refuse help from the US and they are helpless with relying on an ill equipped infrastructure.
With the US gripped by the unjustified (other than in Iran) panic pandemic will not be bogged down for long by the scenario in the movie, its a Mad, mad, mad, mad world. There is though a lot of wishful yearning in US, including among some billionaires for a recessions which for them would be their only hope that there could the only possibility that the current incumbent in the WH gets replaced.
Panic stock selling at a loss will be a loss for the sellers. The tough will hold and insulate the threat to the economy. It is business as usual for me and I will not be afraid to do what needs to get done.
5
@Girish Kotwal
Smart money on Wall Street beg to differ with you. The best of the best Wall Street analysts have cut the SP 500 estimate to 165 EPS, and with 16 times (generous) EPS, the market has yet to discount the market.
Mr. Kotwal: What do you know that the best of Wall Street does not know about the economy?
If you think something that the CDC does not know, please share. We would love to know.
If you know something that the rest of us do not know about psychology, please share.
Thank you.
3
The media is doing a horrible job educating the public about the actual risk from coronavirus, which is resulting in widespread panic where none is necessary. And that's what is causing the damage to the economy.
The media is treating the coronavirus like getting it is a death sentence, highlighting every single death and meticulously documenting every new case.
However, the truth is that the virus is not very easy to transmit (so far about 1 case per 7,000,000 people after 7-8 weeks of existence), and it not very lethal when it is transmitted (killing primarily older people with pre-existing health problems).
If you are under 60 and healthy, the worse case scenario is likely that you might get a mild case of pneumonia. Most likely, you will be completely fine.
That's what the media needs to be showing the public, not driving everyone into a panic which is causing unnecessary harm to the economy.
More people have likely died from the regular flu over the past two months than from the coronavirus....
13
@Matt
This must be the Fox News line -- spread doubt and misinformation about the seriousness of the Coronavirus -- that way Republicans won't urge Trump to take more appropriate, preventative action.
If the Coronavirus infects as many people as the flu infects per year, it will infect 9 million to 45 million people. If the Coronavirus infects 9 million (which is a fair assumption given there is no vaccine for the Coronavirus), and if the death rate is 2%, 180,000 people will die, three times the deaths from the flu.
If 20% of those infected have serious symptoms requiring hospitalization, which the experts tell us, we will need 1.8 million hospital beds, when there are only about 900,000 beds in the whole country.
Fox News lies, unfortunately. It downplays risks and traffics in doubt so Republicans won't have to lift their little fingers to do anything about it.
61
@Matt Sure, China just sequestered millions of people over a no big deal virus, harmed their economy, huge repercussions to the supply chain.
We'll all be just fine. Have the sniffles? Go to work, man up. Come home and hug your wife, kids and mother and father. Visit your grandparents. Be sure to give them a big sloppy hug and kiss.
It will all be fine. Your mileage may vary.
15
@Matt, It is not the media that is causing concern. It is Trump's lack of candor. I am not panicking and no one I know is. I am being very careful to wash my hands and follow other instructions about self care. We will make adjustments if the virus spreads. I have faith in the CDC, NIH, and other health professionals. I also have faith in the pharmaceutical companies that have tried to push back against Trump's expectations about a vaccine. Anyone who knows anything about science knows a vaccine can't be rolled out in two months. That is where Trump is failing us. I also leave my 401k investments as they were before because I don't base my decisions on market factors. I realize that the economy eventually recovers. It has for decades and it will continue.
15
This is not the right forum, but I suggest the NYT gives unimpeded access to all its coronavirus information, maps, updates, etc, as it has done at other times with critical issues. A lot of New Yorkers do not pay the suscription but should be able to get the beat and more timely coverage at all times. The old formila of giving people a number of stories for free a week, has been replaced by the Murdoch-Bezzos formula of you are out after reading one story.
8
@Jake Ehrlich Carlsson
When our "fake news" Trump called the New York Times "a failed newspaper" that is when I took out a subscription for 16 dollars a month ,for me it is almost a patriotic duty !
If 16 bucks a month is to severe a subscription payment perhaps one can give up something worth 16 dollars to be able to read the NYT as much as one would wish too?
5
What ?!
Trump's Federal Reserve interest-rate-cut vaccine isn't working ?
Maybe another reckless tax-cut vaccine will do the trick !
Our unstable genius and his 'limited government' political minions will surely cure us of all our ills.
Republicans are the worst economic students in history.
99
@Socrates Trump does not control the Federal Reserve despite his strongest desires to do so. The Fed rate cut has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with plummeting long-term bond yields/stock market and fears of recession.
Was it an inelegant move by the Fed? Absolutely, lower interest rates will not create a vaccine, but the Fed is trying to fend off the second-order economic impact of this outbreak.
For what its worth, I think a "Trump tax-cut vaccine" would have been more effective than a "Fed rate-cut vaccine".
4
@hesitant
Perhaps the entire GOP should be vaccinated against their 'limited government', cultured ignorance, and Know Nothing tax-cut-mania they have inflicted upon the American common good these last 40 years.
14
Time to buy
12
NYT - stop the scare mongering!!!!! We all know it sells papers but c’mon.
10
@Max Shane’s
Exactly.
The NYT and other media outlets always improve their bottom line when they panic the public.
3
"Not to worry, folks. I have it all under control. I alone can fix it. I'm making America great again, folks. This flu will disappear — poof — just like that, folks. We have great people, great people, folks. All working hard on it, folks. Go about your business. Get on a crowded train, a plane, a subway, a bus, a movie theatre, spend lots of money and it'll go away, folks. It's all over, we found it and got rid of it, so it's all fine now, folks."
People will believe this, of course. That's what we've become.
38
It will be a total disaster as it closes and shuts down normal business and spending and thus leads to a disruption of economic activity.
As a result there will be an economic crisis as people lose jobs and income and cannot pay their bills. The stock market crash will lead to a great wealth diminution. The effects will snow ball and magnify particularly if the epidemic lasts months and causes a panic of uncertainty with its tragic toll of illness and death.
Trump and his administration are incompetent and lack the intellectual resources, the credibility, and the political skills to manage this crisis. This could be the start of an existential disaster and to make matters worse it is in an election year in which Trump will be mainly interested in his own political survival not in our nation’s health. I do not believe that Trump and his administration can handle this crisis well and expect a catastrophe!
14
The local news had a story about restaurants in the Jade District being empty. People fear catching the virus from Chinese restaurants there.
Our government's belated action on testing contributes to this situation.
5
“Scientific and public health efforts might limit the spread of the virus or quickly find a treatment or vaccine.”
Trump’s lie: “They’re moving along very quickly. All of the pharmaceutical companies are moving along very quickly!”
Dr. Fauci, Director of NIAID: “Very soon, we’ll be sticking the first person with the vaccine. But I want to caution everybody: That’s only the first stage of the development of the vaccine. The whole process is going to take a year, a year and a half at least!”
13
@I Gadfly "AT LEAST"
2
I have already canceled all travel and all medical appointments including dentist for teeth cleaning. Not going to willingly step into areas that are known to be hot beds of sick people all around.
6
I once heard that the coronavirus in China is good for the US Economy.
16
The economy is Tump's ace in the hole, if in November the economy slows & unemployment rises Any of the original Democrat Candidates could beat him.
I'm not wishing for a continuation of the Coronavirus, However, I'm not sure if another 4 years of Trump is worst then the virus.
6
Trump’s dark falsehoods aimed at immigrants and “others” contribute enormously to the country’s sense of danger that isn’t there and spooks people into a panic mentality, which will cause them to stay clear of restaurants and movies and sporting events and auto dealerships and so on once a single case is confirmed in their communities.
3
I was supposed to fly and spend a week on the east coast two weeks from now. Canceled. Not risking it because I have pretty bad asthma. I'll do everything I have to do by telephone or video, or not at all. Sorry airline workers and hotel workers. Sorry restaurant employees and cab drivers. Hopefully when your rapacious executives get bailouts they'll pass a crumb down to you.
12
@Pierson Snodgras
People who aren't traveling will be doing other things, which will, in turn, increase the earnings of other companies.
4
Maybe I’m the only one who finds it curious that it’s all or nothing. There are going to be disruptions. So the world ends? These companies, countries, people can’t survive a few weeks or a month while a novel virus works itself out? I have lots of summer plans too, but guess what? Maybe it won’t work out this year if they close the border or cancel the event. So I’ll stick closer to home and go hiking or camping. You don’t get a new IPhone or your Diet Coke? Have to miss a week of work? Cry me a river. Life happens. Maybe we all have to do without for a little while, but this wholesale panic thing is ridiculous.
20
@Yaker
Many people cannot handle being at home for 1-2 days. The multiple “cabin fever” articles and television news features in the wake of blizzards prove this out. It is typically people with a wealth of options in their homes who complain the most. I don’t know how people will handle prolonged quarantines and business shutdowns.
5
@Lynn in DC, I have a stack of books, Netflix, Amazon Prime, and my supermarkets deliver. If I have to be quarantined, I will manage just fine. I don't think I would go to the theater, to a sporting event, or to a political rally. Common sense works. It also helps that there is just one confirmed case in my state but I don't count on that. If schools have to close I worry about the students getting meals. I worry about hourly workers not getting paid. I worry about airlines and other companies losing business but our country has dealt with other crises in the past. We will get by this one eventually. I just want the government to be completely honest with us and put all the resources of our health care system to work.
5
@Yaker I agree.
As the president tells people they can go to work with the virus, and it's ok to get sick and not get tested.
That's the most dangerous element to all of this - our leader's misinformation.
17
The market has been way overvalued for a long time propped up with borrowed money from China and the Moslem world. It will probably drop 20 - 30 percent and housing prices will follow. Many people are doing less and buying less until it's clearer what happens. Since many don't have health care and can't afford to be sick look for a very rapid spread of the virus since so many will avoid reporting it, treating it and just continue with business as usual. Surely Uber and Doordash are checking their drivers for exposure regularly.
4
Americans would be safer when we stop sleep overs for our children, and their massive birthday party gatherings of many generations.
Daily use of a Neilmed Sinus rinse would do wonders.
Working out in a rec center during a glorious Spring would exposure your family to every virus known to mankind, so do stuff out doors.
4
@Steven of the Rockies WHO says that nasal rinses are ineffective at infection prevention from viruses. If the virus is in your nasal cavity it's too late to prevent infection.
7
@Steven of the Rockies
Americans would be safer if we remove this insane dangerous president from office.
2
Remember the saying "the enemy of your enemy is your friend"... The CoronaV has stimulated a substantial reduction in CO2 production in a a very short time. Oil production has fallen, gasoline consumption has decreased, air travel has declined, travel has been postponed, Exxon has put drilling in the Permian on hold, etc... A virus has been able, in a few weeks, to do what the climate scientists and politicians were unable to accomplish in decades of hard work.
14
@Taoshum, things will need to get much worse with this virus in order to achieve a change in CO2 emissions patterns and growth in the coming decades. A month or two of slowed activity only creates pent-up demand, i.e., we'll be back to our old ways in no time.
However, if a lot of companies discover through this process that there is no harm in allowing employees to work remote more often, that would be a meaningful change.
7
@Mford Yes, true and might translate to other activities as well. Plus, no doubt, there are other viruses just waiting to pounce as the temperatures rise.
@Taoshum Mother Nature's revenge?
We should have traded with Mexico and stuck with that before going to China. That made sense since they move next to us and what benefits them benefits us.
Trade in and of itself isn’t really the problem though. It’s profits over people and the leaders are authoritarian businesses that hate unions and workers rights. Hiding in China was used as a tool to bust unions instead of being the people in China a stronger voice.
That’s the problem. Our leadership in businesses hates having the people who do the work having a voice in anything.
25
A small personal example: for the past fifteen years, the Husband and I have taken a Spring Trip to Seattle, to escape Kansas and enjoy ourselves. Flights, a nice Downtown Hotel, Restaurants, Drinks, admissions fees, Shopping (Nordstrom!), Tips and miscellanies. Total, Five to Seven Thousand Dollars, Of completely “unnecessary “ spending. Now, multiply that by several Million People.
I’m absolutely not blaming Trump for this Virus. But, I have absolutely ZERO confidence in His Regime to do ANYTHING helpful to contain it, and follow proper Scientific Advice.
We’re on our Own. Good Luck.
84
@Phyliss Dalmatian : that's funny, very spring I take a trip TO KANSAS to get out of Seattle and away from all the awful snobby elites!
So you spend $7000 on a vacation to….Seattle? you really ARE rich. No wonder you don't understand voters or elections.
HINT: most average Americans don't spend anything remotely like $7000 on a two week vacation IN THE USA for two adults.
9
We are in the dark right now.
Meaning widespread testing in this country has not yet occurred.
Once millions of Americans are tested we'll see if the virus is lurking in thousands of communities.
Then, we'll see how people react.
If the incidence of virus is high and spread wide, it's easy to predict the activity of the typical consumer will be on pause for a while.
That will mean potentially big reductions in spending in the "social economy" - from eating out to working out. Shopping, travel… you get it.
Less business likely causes layoffs - small businesses will need to stay afloat and cut outlays. Layed off workers don't spend money they don't have… on top of not wanting to go places for fear of the virus.
The down cycle may grip us all.
Look for hopeful signs.
Better government response.
Warner weather.
Congress providing meaningful, emergency unemployment benefits during the crisis.
People will need money!
As a vaccine gets closer or a perceived drop in new cases, look for the economy and stock market to rebound substantially.
Although the rebound may take a couple of years.
If you are young, don't sell your stocks.
If you are on the cusp of retirement, assess what you need to live the way you anticipated.
We'll get through this.
Then, something else will happen as it always does.
Enjoy life the best you can, speak with respect and love one another.
27
This is the first major test of our for profit healthcare system. I don't know how I'm going to reassure my patients today in clinic...
We are the only developed nation without a nationalized healthcare system.
Do you really think the American healthcare companies are looking out for your best interests? Their stocks went up when Biden did well on Super Tuesday. That tells ya something...
At the end of the day, who will pay for all this? Hard working Americans, many who have large health insurance deductibles. Millions of Americans will get large bills from their hospitals / insurance companies.
If you have Medicare or Medicaid you are actually the lucky ones. The rest of us should worry.
Good luck fellow Americans, dont forget to wash your hands.
58
We still do not know what the actual economic costs will be. The Wall Street selloff is somewhat speculative. But what is driving it is real. Every has known about Trump’s lack of leadership skills and his obsessive self aggrandizement. But when things are chugging along they could ignore it.
But this is a potential disaster for everyone, including the fat cats. And the Markets do not have confidence in Dopey Don’s ability to hand such an event. Which means that any negative consequences will be magnified.
40
I recall some years ago an Indian economist commenting that countries need to be reliant on their own production to be stable. Over the years the US has visibly moved to one founded on consumer spending and financial manipulation - with basic production pushed to other countries (and of course those well-paying jobs lost). Of course, anything that disrupts the flow of cash from employers to service providers will be damaging to the economy. More than ever before it is an act of faith that holds it up.
20
We all looked at China and their draconian and heavy infringement on personal liberty as what is all terrible wrong, and criticism abounds on how they suppressed information and worse, but if their numbers are to be believed it took that country almost two months to contain it, and they acted pretty fast given they were totally surprised.
No look at the US and rest of the world and CDC and WHO. They took the wait and see approach, as if they were agressive and took huge action there would have been huge uproar, protests and lawsuits galore, expect this to run a much longer and painful course unless strict and draconian measure are taken. Just look at the debates about March Madness, testing etc. etc. As with most things, will need to get a lot worse before real action, as real action early always is viewed as over reaction
14
In the end, it doesn't really matter what happens in factories and on farms in terms of what makes or breaks the American economy. All that really matters is consumer spending, which still accounts for 70 cents of every dollar of economic activity in this county.
14
My big takeaway is this:
For two years we have heard the media parrot the White House line that "the economy is terrific." Even In fact, there have been terrific positives but also other more questionable facets of the US economy.
Everyone would echo, though, that it has mainly been buoyed by very high consumer confidence.
The problem is -- you lose the US consumer confidence, and you then have a very bad economy.
Not a problem for me, because I noticed this in 2019 and went entirely to cash in advance of the new year. But a problem indeed for the US media, which needs to learn to think on its own and stop parroting the White House, ignoring the deficit numbers, and failing to speak to the unprecedented paralysis that goes along with fundamentally divided government.
36
You’re very smart to liquidate although I have confidence that low and mid range housing prices will remain strong. But—-so will hard currency and precious metal.
3
@Bruce Egert : the explosion in home prices is not individuals buying "low" (LOW? where are their LOW housing prices in NJ?) and midrange housing -- it's all house flipping and investors, at EVERY level of the market.
It is 2006 all over again, only worse because everyone in the market KNOWS what happened then, and is doing the same things ANYHOW!
11
The U.S. is long overdue for a Cyclical economic "Correction". The only question is the timing of when the recession hits. The Federal Reserve will do its utmost to delay the advent of the Recession until after the Election. The GOP will be willing to do whatever it takes, including adding Trillions of Dollars of new debt, to keep the Economy from appearing to falter under Trump.
The Recession is coming, but the forlorn and cynical attempts of the Trump Administration and the GOP manipulate the process will only end up making it much worse for the average American.
73
Going to the dentist is about the last thing I would worry about. The staff wear masks and surgical gloves, and I don't think I even have to touch anything there.
30
@John
Half of the things we touch when out in public we do reflexively, and rarely consciously think about. A few things you may likely touch before being seen are:
the door handle; the counter where you check in -- particularly if you have to sign in or produce a coverage card; the arms of the chair when you sit down; the magazine that you may pick up; the materials at the coffee/water station if there is one; the arms of the exam chair ... . We're on autopilot a lot more than we may think.
25
@John : fortunately I am blessed with very good, healthy teeth -- and with luck, my dental insurance RAN OUT in January and I can't now afford to get a checkup.
Sometimes things like that are "nature's protection".
Dental offices are vectors of disease, which is why your dentist and hygienist wear MASKS and GLOVES! human mouths are full of germs.
Sorry, I will wait until the epidemic is over.
5
@CommonSenseRules agreed, but infection control is very much a part of the everyday culture in the dental office. At least in mine it is. And with public awareness of the virus growing, I think we can all apply a little of our own common sense rules, by taking simple measures like skipping that magazine and coffee.
8
The national health care system of Canada is leagues ahead of the US when facing a pandemic. Every person in Canada eligible for that system is on the computer, tractable and basically updated. Changes to the whole system can be made in real time and followed through by the network attacked to the system. Branches of the system down to the local clinics are reachable immediately. With the best available information and the best people in charge, everything is at your fingertips. Smooth. Competent, Responsive. Made to handle a pandemic. Up to date response.
Compare to the messy, delayed reaction complicated by misinformation of the US. No comparison exists, none.
This time a health care system intertwined with political infighting is dangerous and at times lethal to the general public, antiquated and slow to respond. Time to open your eyes. People will die.
89
As long as it doesn’t inconvenience the super wealthy Americans, this country has already proved it doesn’t care if millions die.
24
@joyce
Not just Canada. EVERY civilized country.
America enjoys being the wild west, or at least it thinks it does, until something wakes it up occasionally.
Bonjour les degats.
7
The author isn't recognizing the changed landscape of the digital economy. The flow of goods and services may be disrupted, but shopping in developed economies trends online. You don't need to see people to buy stuff.
Attendance at sporting events is a secondary revenue generator compared to TV rights. As long as the networks are paying the big bucks to broadcast March Madness, the tournament will do ok. Local businesses near arenas, and some travel companies, may feel pain, but the megabucks that come from rights will not diminish.
11
You forget that buying online, also requires someone to be there to deliver it to you!
2
@Jonathan Hutter
Agree 1,000% with regard to March Madness.
Online shopping, on the other hand, is not the issue when it comes to not needing to "see people". The supply chain will have its hiccups, but I remind people that the source of their consumer goods is not the Stuff Fairy, it's on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.
Look at the labels on everything from your underwear to the back of your electronic devices. None will read "made in America". Nearly all will read "made in China", "made in Malaysia", "made in Vietnam", ... .
When it comes to global economics (or, heck, one's own country's economic infrastructure), those who can least afford to lose will lose the most in the next major down turn.
Most Americans' consideration of goods is rooted in how cheaply and quickly an item can be obtained. As the youngest empire on the planet, whistling through the graveyard of our own demise, the USA has some harsh economic lessons ahead. Not a pessimist; simply a realist.
Mr. Xi's empire is far better equipped to weather the next global storm than the USA. HONEST economists will tell the facts of the matter; not merely reiterate the conventional thinking that calms fears.
8
@Jonathan Hutter
And who do you think boxes-up and delivers all those items that you buy online?
They now realize that the mail/mail man was a big factor in spreading the flu in the 1918 epidemic,
5
How’s that Infrastructure Week going? It is situations like this that highlight our vulnerabilities as a country.
17
It would be nice to get a degree of confidence about buying tickets to mass events in x months, scenario projections.
4
@Liz
Be 100% confident that if you don't attend such events they won't transmit problems to you directly.
1
Hmmm. We have laid in emergency supplies, suspended our gym memberships, and looking forward to when schools close. But I am still going to the dentist.
9
@Snowball ; I'd only go to the dentist if I was in pain or had an emergency like a broken tooth.
The human mouth is filthy and those dental masks are just paper -- the AIR in that office is chockfull of germs and bacteria and viruses -- every surface in the office.
You'd be far safer in the gym or at school.
4
Which economy is this epidemic threatening? This article assumes there's only 1 economy, really there's a lot more to it than travel and sporting events.
I like the fact that my company (and client) has cancelled business travel, I will have more free time at home.
I like it that I can work from home as a software developer, I save $200 as well as 10 hours a week! This sure helps MY economy. (what I save I spend locally).
I LIKE the fact that the coronavirus is making people think and hopefully we can learn something. Maybe we can learn how to save money and focus on what's really important instead of jumping through hoops every day.
Hopefully this will lead us to live more sustainably.
65
@Enjoy The Kitchen That's exactly the point of the article. By staying home, you're not spending (as much) money as you would going out. So maybe you'll save some, but people will start losing jobs and spending even less. It's a downward economic spiral. At some point, you may even lose your job.
44
@LEM Is that true? I'm still going out, the restaurant I was at last night was very busy.
I just don't want to go into an office, a school, a mall, a train or a plane.
I think spending is just going to change. I don't think we're all going to isolate ourselves.
6
@Enjoy The Kitchen I don't think you'll make up the spending (traveling, in particular, but also at the mall) by staying local.
8
It's ironic that all of these cancellations and cutbacks are the same actions we should be taking to combat climate change. But since we haven't and don't, the planet is acting for us, using an epidemic. Next we'll see food shortages and vast human migrations, as well as disease.
112
@Susan I hope someone is tracking the data on this. Data around emissions (did CO2 drop?). I would like to know!
13
@Enjoy The Kitchen Remember the weeks of clear skies following 9/11? Air quality usually improves with any economic downturn. This is happening in China now.
As for gathering the data, that depends on how deep the president's cuts are to the EPA and other scientific and health agencies.
19
@Susan Correct Susan - Even if this epidemic is short lived, at least it will jump start some creative responses, resource assessment, OK - priorities in life, what is taken for granted, etc., which is all healthy stuff, even, as you say, a prep course for the climate crisis. Yes, demise of the bees, water table loss for food production, more epidemics - impending shifts that corona virus is only a precursor.
10
To me the real question is how much more dangerous is this than the flu. Flu runs rampant every year and people die. A lot of people don't even go to the hospital and no one thinks twice whether they spread it to other people or not. You see people hacking and coughing on everyone all winter, especially while traveling or at work.
In the US for sure we are under measuring how many people have it. According to the news reports, the Koreans have the most capability to test everyone and their survival rate seems to be better, but mostly because they are generating a lot of data.
For sure science has advanced and we can get a lot more detail about what is ailing us compared to 50 years ago. In cases like this does that help us or hurt us?
Shutting the world down and creating economic stress and anxiety is probably as bad for the health of the worlds people long term as this virus.
12
@Hugh G
According to the World Health Organization, 30-40 times more dangerous.
And the fact that Americans go to work while sick with the flu is a symptom of our dysfunctional work culture, economy, and government... not something we should just shrug off. Flu deaths would fall if people had guaranteed sick leave, could visit a doctor without being out-of-pocket hundreds or thousands of dollars, and earned a wage that allowed them to save money for disruptions.
But Americans, or at least older Americans, have decided that quarterly returns on their investments are more important than living in a healthy, stable society.
What a shame.
108
@Hugh G
Although I disagree that the Coronavirus is just like regular flu, the flu numbers are exposing what should be a scandal. Why are flu deaths so high when there is a vaccine? I fear that is has something to do with our upside-down healthcare system, in which hospitals like mine consider it a "good" month when all its beds are full.
27
@Patrick Moore Not this older American. Plenty of us have worked for a healthier, more stable society all our lives.
9
Another way it will be worse in the US is that we have an epidemic of price-gouging and punitive medical debt collection. In Washington State problems with medical debt has skyrocketed to become the number one legal issue. Bankruptcy is just the tip of the iceberg. In my county in Washington State, next to the epi-center of the outbreak, the median wages of families who are sued and whose wages are garnished for medical debt is less than $36,000.
People are not just afraid to go to the doctor because of cost; they’re afraid to go because they’ll be punished and their future prospects diminished if they do. That the state has required insurance companies to waive deductibles to get tested won’t help because what if the test is positive?
145
@Sherry
And that’s with Washington’s fairly generous expanded Medicare benefits. Imagine what it’s like in states that didn’t enact the Medicare expansion.
48
@Patrick Moore
Did you perhaps mean Medicaid (not Medicare) expansion?
9
Do you mean Medicaid expansion?
3
This article echos my reflections, the time when my family from mid west and far away on the west coast start making reservations for flights to visit me here in Maine for the summer is approaching. One can buy the cancellation insurance, but still take a hit, or worse, pick up the virus on flight. But that's just a sample, the concerts, the movies, the amusement park, even the beach could be a problem. Is it paranoia or logical fear. I'm retired from a business that required daily contact with new people, and they say those masks don't really do the job.
14
Great investment opportunities emerging for followers of the “Shock Doctrine” (thanks Naomi Klein). Moreover, those predatory investors now have the added buying power of lowered interest rates just provided by the Fed.
Shovel more cheap cash to the financial elites. That’s the Fed’s way of using our money to fight COVID 19.
Perfect.
How can this economic system NOT be seen as designed to mainly benefit the wealthy and other shareholders?
163
@LynnBob
The right wing never misses an opportunity to use any situation to transfer wealth upwards and consolidate political power.
Next up: airlines and others will have their hands out with predictions of doom if taxpayers don't bail them out.
Translation: Regular people need the discipline of rugged free-market capitalism, but we need a sweet socialized bailout.
27
Really? There is a big plan to infect the world so the rich can get richer. Really?
1
@Brian Clarke no there is no conspiracy to cause this just lots of tools that are already in place to take swoop in and take advantage of catastrophes before the population knows what they’re doing. A prime example is the privatization of public schools in New Orleans after Katrina. It’s been an absolute disaster especially for poor families but a bunch of people got incredibly rich and that’s all that matters.
12
I am a physician who practices in Maryland near DC. There are more and more patients who are asking me about what they should do in connection with this pandemic.
I have successfully been treating many people with the flu using homeopathy and osteopathic treatment to improve body physiology and function. When it comes to coronoa virus we prescribe according to the symptoms. There is no way to kill a virus since it is not a living organism like a bacteria. So the treatment is aimed at normalizing the systemic function. This approach was used in the 1918 flu pandemic in which more than 50 million people died. It is why the homeopathic and osteopathic hospitals, as demonstrated by our records, had the least number of fatalities. In Philadelphia, to quote one example, W. A. Pearson, MD,collected 26,795 cases of influenza treated by homeopathic physicians with a mortality of 1.05%; conventional ( allopathic) hospitals had a 30% rate.
The local stores are being flooded with consumers who are buying many of the products which a quarantine would warrant.
This situation will get a lot worse, I believe, before things return to normal. This is the case with such pandemics. They all eventually run their course.
24
I would like to take this opportunity to once again thank all of the Senate Republicans, and especially Mitch McConnell for choosing Trump over country.
I wonder what the final cost will be.
251
@Grove Yes, let's thank the Senate Republicans for continuing to gaslight Americans about the COVID-19 and wearing gas masks to make fun of the entire problem while families have members dying daily.
10
The larger concern is what is advertised as a 'service' economy versus one based on 'manufacturing'. One can imagine the later returning to function in time; perhaps the former......doesn't really return in the same fashion.
13
The United States is not like China, which China can lock itself off to contain the coronavirus; the United States cannot do the same without drastic consequences. It is increasingly likely the virus will cause a recession, and Americans are bound to have one as the market seeks a correction. As I begin my professional career after college next year, I may have to work in a recessive market. I am not happy, but the market correction is very overdue, and there is no way the U.S. economy could be immune to the outbreak.
73
That was a very cogent response. I hope you enter the labor force under better economic conditions next year.
9
The markets are not the same as the economy.
2
@Brian Clarke
Remember 2008? Markets tanked the economy, or maybe vice versa. Chicken and the egg I suppose.
2