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1
The CDC website today states that there are 80 cases of corona virus in the United States. This is flat wrong. There are 158 cases according to today's NYTimes, almost twice the number that the CDC is reporting. Our government is failing us in the most basic task of this health crisis- that of providing us with accurate, up to date, information. What else is going wrong?
8
The CDC website today states that there are 80 cases of corona virus in the United States. This is flat wrong. There are 158 cases, almost twice the number that the CDC is reporting. Our government is failing us in the most basic task of this health crisis- that of providing us with accurate, up to date, information. What else is going wrong?
4
What have we heard about NORTH Korea?
I've not found even a sliver of information.
1
Bud
Seriously?
You expect a brutal dictator to release information to his masses?
Kinda what is happening here right now: misinformation, disinformation, and withholding of facts.
5
When will Americans stop going to toxic China and polluted Europe. I am amazed they go in the winter when the illnesses start up and tell you honestly those people need to stay on the cruise ship until they are better. Our military should not go and even airlift them to safety. It is not our fault they traveled at a dangerous time of the year. I have no interest in traveling to those toxic places. Those countries use coal and fossil fuels so don’t send me a comment saying they are not toxic places. You are in denial like Trump about coal and fossil fuels.
2
Soooo we don’t use fossil fuels?
12
Pope Francis said it best you harm the environment you harm humanity. Mr Biden said it best at a town hall meeting you keep using coal and fossil fuels you die. I don’t want to die from careless and profoundly immoral Trump and his supporters like you. You all need to be in jail.
1
This administration has pushed an agenda that has led arrogant sycophants to believe they are better equipped and/or have the right to make politically expedient decisions that affect our lives-in this case at the expense of public health.
By gutting our civil service of knowledge based professionals, and denigrating their expert governance they've stripped us of 250 years of safeguards
That power play that had the 'new' State & HHS Depts overruling the CDC is one glaring example- and we'll likely be unable to chase and correct others unless some whistleblower warns us.
14
Our government is too busy killing people around the world at the cost of trillions for the interest of the billionaires currently BUILDING BUNKERS to protect themselves and their loved ones (yup, I heard it on Amanpour) instead of building our healthcare system. The market rallied today because of Biden's wins. The biggest winners were Insurance companies. Get a clue folks. The rich are in it for themselves.
16
Actually, our man in the WH blames Obama, again. Alexander, R-Tennessee, said the Obama administration made no such rule change. The aide, Taylor Haulsee, said the Obama administration did propose that the Food and Drug Administration have more oversight over approving diagnostic tests, but that did not go through." And, he added, "There has not yet been significant regulatory reform of diagnostics passed by Congress.
The buck stops at Trump's doorstep. We dropped the ball. The opportunity at the beginning of the outbreak was flawed here in the U.S. because there not only was a shortage of testing kits, but the early kits were flawed and not useable. It is estimated that there were about six weeks lost with cases in Washington. “A Seattle-area researcher said his genetic analysis shows the virus probably circulated undetected in the state for six weeks.” This exposed more people.
Trump was concerned more about how the coronavirus would affect the Stock Market and his image than what was best for the people of this country. "South Korea as of 2/27/20 tested a total of 66,652 people for the COVID-19 coronavirus virus. Japan had reported administering roughly 1,890 tests and the U.S. only 445. The huge discrepancy compared to other countries reflects how quickly South Korea’s numbers have been rising, experts say."
South Korea has been praised for the speed in which they have responded to this issue. Our delay is due to bungling.
15
COVID19 should be studied by future researchers, not for its qualities as a disease, but as a case study in cognitive biases. It’s embarrassing how unrealistic people’s assessment of risk is respecting it. Costco sells out of toilet paper in CA on a daily basis now, but the fact is there is no confirmed community transmission, very few people die from it who do get it (and most of them who do are older with pre-existing respiratory conditions), and it started over two months ago with an incubation period of roughly 14 days. The media is only amplifying the hysteria and feeding the “fear and loathing” like an ouroboros (snake eating its own tail). More irrationally in an age with no shortage of it. Smh.
3
Iron Feather
This is community spread. Please get your facts correct.
And people have the right to, and in fact should be prepared for emergencies. The Public Health Departments in every state have been preaching and teaching this for decades now. Every household should be prepared for natural disasters, such as floods, tornadoes, and yes, pandemic diseases.
1
And while we are on the subject of healthcare, why is it legal to produce pharmaceuticals in India, China and the like? I do not know a single dog owner who would buy a treat or dog food produced in China, because we do not trust their hygiene or processing, why are we producing our drugs there? Why isn't the media outraged?
21
Show me one healthy person under the age of 65 without pre-existing health conditions who has died and maybe I’ll take this seriously more than a new strand of the flu..
More people die daily driving on the 5 freeway in California
2
This is totally out of control. Last weekend's AIPAC conference apparently had a group that was exposed to the family that tested positive in Westchester. All conferences should be cancelled, all theaters, concert venues, sports events and schools should be closed. Yes, what China did was right.
10
I hate to make things worse but are the test kits distributed effective, and have they been examined by an outside group?
All credibility has been lost by the administration, and that can lead to panic. The ministry of truth has caused a collapse in belief of almost everything.
We need a government we can believe in now more than ever, and Donny of what 11,000 lies isn't the man.
Will the next MAGA rally preclude a pest hole?
6
Ironically this will prove having 95% of our medical supplies made in unreliable totalitarian China must be changed.
8
"Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is much deadlier than seasonal flu but may not spread as easily, World Health Organization officials have reiterated."
There is no evidence for that, in fact Covid_19 spreads much more easily than the seasonal flu.
The coronavirus seems to be more deadly than the flu — so far. The new coronavirus seems to be more contagious than most strains of the flu, and roughly as contagious as strains that appear in pandemic flu seasons.. Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people on average. By comparison, the figure for the seasonal flu is roughly 1.3.
16
@Padman ... Such an authority you are! Lead us to your data. Or get a job in the White House.
Hold the ship until April, when Dr. Trump says the virus will just go "poof" and magically disappear.
27
Trump gutted the CDC. Now he needs the expertise he fired and he is complaining. He cant have it both ways and the virus has no concern whatsoever about Trumps tricks and lies and denials. The virus has no concern with politics or science denial. Trump had better figure out where reality is, after a lifetime of making up his own reality. But nothing will change with him, God help us all. The blind man is leading us into the whirlwind with no comprehension of the danger and little preparation for it.
Canada has tracked down and isolated every case and they say they have no community transmission to date.
They also say they have the best national health system in the world and they are prepared for an emergency of epidemic proportions. The system is extremely well organized as it is. That is a pretty good case for a national health care system.
31
They are RECOMMENDING in Seattle that organizations cancel events for more than 10 people??!!!
Why isn’t it MANDATORY!? Why were 55,000 at a garden show last weekend, 50,000 expected in The soccer stadium this weekend, and more than 100,000 expected at a 2 day comic book convention this weekend?
Why are fans allowed to watch high school and college teams compete in Seattle, the hot spot of this epidemic?
Why is a huge quilting and fabric show for PAC NW about to take place in puyallup for several days?
23
Because you’re asking a HUGE bustlin metropolitan area to shut down its commerce based on (as far as we know) a moderately contained situation. (By the way I agree that these events should be postponed in my personal opinion.) You do have to consider the extensive economic damage a complicated city like Seattle would face if it started abruptly ordering events to cancel or for the city to shut down. First of all, a thing you should know about Seattle is that you’re either poor or you’re wealthy. There’s a very very small in between that could mean missing one week of work means you can’t make rent means you’re possibly on your way to being homeless. Two we have a MASSIVE homeless problem. People who rely on busses, programs, food banks. It’s honestly not that simple. You should see what business owners in our international district here also known as China Town are going through with people ignorantly refusing to eat and shop in that area. Shifts are cut, staff has been laid off. Imagine what canceling large events could do to people who depend on big tourist attractions or convention events could do. It’s not as simple and Inslee making brash executive orders a la Trump style. Public health is not simple and Seattle is doing a question job but honestly is your city prepared??? Capitalist US is not ready for this. It has and always will be profits > public health.
8
In contrast Italy Italy now prohibits fans from attending all sporting events until at least April 3. All schools and cinemas are closed. Even daycares, And the death toll still rose by 28 more in the last 24 hours.
Meanwhile in Seattle...I don’t get it.
8
@Jace do you live in a large metropolitan city???????? Or do you live in a nice suburban culdesac. Do you know that most people in Seattle like SEATTLE live in apartments? Do you know how much rent costs here? Like helllllllloooooo we can’t just shut everything down because we are just another bustling, hectic, densely populated city that exists in capitalism America. Do you know how capitalism survives? LABOR. The average American works to pay bills and rent. The average American doesn’t get sick time. You think the barista I get my coffee from every morning at my job in downtown Seattle has 2-4 weeks of paid time off to fall back on? Or the person who cleans the offices I work at at night????? Shutting a city down is not that simple. Italy shut it down after hundred of people died. Not 10. It’s extremely complicated to ask working class America to shut down when the government doesn’t not only NOT care that your poor but they’ll also punish you for being poor. Seattle is a product of a country that has always put profits over people. Let this inspire middle America to vote smarter.
6
Congress needs to pass immediate legislation granting paid sick leave to anyone testing positive for the new strain of Coronavirus virus, for the quarantine period and during the illness through recovery. Test kits and protocols must be made widely available with federal funding for expedited test kit manufacture.
That millions of workers fear losing their jobs if they stay home sick or report symptoms is itself a public health crisis. They are putting at risk everyone they encounter but understandably feel they have no alternative.
13
@JB unfortunately, a bigger problem is getting people to stay home while awaiting test results. If negative, there’s no sick pay? Hmmm.
5
Are Ubers the next vector for infection? They are exposed to lots of people, and if they don't know they are infected, they can infect others.
6
If people are not concerned or are saying don't worry, it is because they are not informed or choose not to be informed. Just read the alarming post from the Oregon doctor.
12
No more so than taxis, not to mention subways and busses. Sheesh.
Clarice
Everyone should read the comment written by a Dr E, an infectious disease doctor in Oregon.
It is frightening.
They have a three week supply of gloves and masks in his or her hospital. They have no test kits. They have one open bed in the ICU. Nurses are calling iff sick and cannot even be tested to see if they have Covid-19.
Look for the comment by flipping through the NYT selected comments in this article.
Frightening.
3
@Country Girl
His post seemed bogus. There are only three confirmed positives in the entire state (and one of those is actually in Washington). They are doing testing (more than 95% are negative). They had about 300 people under observation because that had a possible connection to the virus (eg travel to Italy etc) and 250 have been released as negative.
Their ICU beds are not full of Covid-19 patients (only 2 positives in the entire state) and they haven’t had a positive test in 2 days (although they are waiting for a couple dozen test results).
In short, it seemed like someone trolling the group to incite fear on the basis of no hard evidence.
3
In China back in January the local government knew about it and chose to stay quiet (shameless). But here, the big difference is things are somewhat more transparent. Except I feel as though it’s more “we know about it and we want you to know about it. But we are not going to do much about it “. I’m not sure what’s worse.
11
Sadly, we are proving to be own worst enemy. It appears people are now hoarding bleach, sanitizing wipes, Lysol, etc. to the point there’s none available on the shelves. Unfortunately, what that will accomplish is to negatively impact common sanitation practices. I guess we should just make sure to stand next to someone that smells like Clorox.
8
A cruise ship, another cruise ship, a third cruise ship... and the Olympics are not cancelled yet? Is it so hard to see what many people in close proximity sharing common infrastructures (toilets, restaurants, seats...) does to facilitate propagation?
Real people are dying. And many older people and people with underlying conditions are going to the Olympics. Should we discriminate against them? Maybe not expose them to this situation? I think cancellation is the only option (or postponement)
Want another example? All restaurants / bars / cafés should be under a strict "coronavirus emergency measures" obligation to disinfect seats and tables each time there's a change of user.
But common sense is a long forgotten trait. Money rules.
5
Seriously, if something is worth having it is also worth defending. We have a choice to make that is dividing our nation, tearing neighbor from neighbor and families apart. Then in the way of the Universe, God, Rama, The Force, whatever you wish to name, we get a reminder that there are times when we must work together. The Coronavirus is a reminder that regardless of our philosophies we are all human and in the face of this, if we wish to prosper, we must work together. With this challenge it is our pooling of knowledge, of expertise, of sharing what is working in one area with others, that will enable all humans to pass through this challenge. We are all literally connected to each other, we are also good at different things and these two are what will get us through this crisis "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need." This quote from Karl Marx got a bad rap because of the way the Communists twisted its idea. It would just as easily been written "Give your brother and sister a hand up if you can." It could be as simple as "I have some extra gloves and face masks, would you like some?"
5
My county in NJ just got hit with this deadly virus. It was far away 2 months ago and I was already worried how our greatest country will deal with Public Health issue. Our health system is based on individualism. We rather have uninsured people carrying deadly disease than covering all under our taxes. If one gets sick we ALL get sick ! It is time for a change how we deal with healthcare.
14
Fred
Agree.
Big Pharma and insurance companies tell us that we have a great healthcare system. Anything else is “socialism.”
Socialism is not a dirty word. It means a country takes care of the weakest and most vulnerable among us because it is good for ALL of us. It is good for our country.
This is just a mess right now. We have allowed corporate greed to leave us so vulnerable. The medicines, and our test kits or their components, and the PPE (gloves, masks, gowns) are not made in our country anymore. We are all vulnerable because of corporate greed and our stock portfolios.
6
The 50 year old New Rochelle , NY lawyer who has infected his family and a neighbor was reported to have recently been in Miami. Are his Miami contacts being traced? Who do we ask to find out?
9
I question decision to quarantine 2500 passengers aboard the ship. Don’t we remember that apparently one infected person boarded Diamond Princess in second half of January and after month or, so we had around 700 Covid-19 cases. Cruise ship is not a proper place to quarantine people as it was already proven! Those passengers should be quarantined on land in appropriate facility. Question: do we have appropriate facility? Why are we repeating same mistakes over and over again and seem to be completely unprepared for outbreak? Please help me understand!
17
I think the problem is CA either can't or doesn't want to find places on land to quarantine 3- 4000 people. After the Yokohama Princess fiasco I would have expected the cruise line and its passengers might have realized this wasn't the best time to be cruising. If people want to go ahead and cruise at this time, then I don't think it's unreasonable for them to be expected to bear the consequences of their decisions.
2
Curious how many of the anti-Vaxx crowd are now crowing for a coronavirus vaccine asap.
14
I think it's interesting that Italy has one of the highest rates of measles in Europe, due largely to a growing anti-vaxxer movement and a right wing government that is apparently sympathetic to their cause.
3
Actually Measles vaccine recently became mandatory I believe for kids born in 2017 and later. It's at least a step in the right direction. Also nobody vaccinates against the flu over here, maybe that could have something to do with it.
3
And now in the greater America, welcome to the pandemic against the pandemonium.
2
It all boils down as to who are you going to believe:
• Medical practitioners who are saying that the virus is 3.4 times deadlier than the flu and whose strain has just mutated today while a vaccine for the first strain is about 12 months away...
Or,
• The most intelligent and most handsome human to ever walk this earth who has not spoken a single lie in his entire existence saying that this is all a hoax cooked up by librul elites?
15
@Opinioned! Neither, Covid-19 is most probably 10-20 times more deadly than average influenza and it didn't mutate today , but probably long time ago.
5
Is this a third world country we live in? Hardly enough test kits, people aren't sure if their insurance will pay for a test, so many are forgoing the test even if available. Trump's medal of freedom recipient is using his national talk radio show to tell hundreds of thousands of people the deadly virus is just a cold. So how many people are ignoring their symptoms who have cononavirus, spreading it to family and coworkers? I'm glad the stock market got a bounce from Biden, but it will be short lived when reality hits the fan.
13
Is this a third world country we live in? Hardly enough test kits, people aren't sure if their insurance will pay for a test, so many are forgoing the test even if available. Trump's medal of freedom recipient is using his national talk radio show to tell hundreds of thousands of people the deadly virus is just a cold. So how many people are ignoring their symptoms who have cononavirus, spreading it to family and coworkers? I'm glad the stock market got a bounce from Biden, but it will be short lived when reality hits the fan.
4
"We could have gotten a lot more people tested, if we did not need to make sure that the tests actually worked."
8
There are still (conspiracy) theorists out there denying that this is a real problem - and that somehow it can’t be as bad as China, as if the virus, if it exists at all in such minds, knows it’s now in the USA.
Among these I am calling out Joe Benigno of WFAN, a popular NY sports radio station with its share of conservatives and anti-government hosts, because such claims and disregard for reality and science put public health - including their listeners - at risk. I like him as a funny sports commentator, but not for irresponsibly encouraging fake news amid daily growing evidence of the disease’s spread.
We can still hope to limit the impact so it’s not Wuhan, but that means taking the virus seriously in the first place.
10
Here in Seattle the county public health office is urging those in high risk groups to stay home. This includes anyone over 60 years old. Sounds drastic, but we still don’t know what we’re up against.
19
As a healthcare professional who receives annual training in proper use of respirators, I find it incredibly upsetting to see pictures of so many individuals wearing masks and respirators incorrectly. If your nose and /or mouth are not covered, the mask or respirator will be of zero benefit.
If it comes to the point that the general public actually needs to wear masks or respirators, there needs to be training in the proper use of the devices. Otherwise, they will create a false sense of security and Will likely make matters worse.
14
@Lynne - I was in Target over the weekend and saw a woman “wearing” a mask - she had pulled it down to her chin, leaving her nose and mouth completely exposed. She was doing her shopping like that. There is no point to these devices if people aren’t even going to wear them properly.
1
But Trump/Brownie said we had this under control and cases would soon be at zero. So I don’t need to worry about this at all anymore, right?
59
It’s looking like the U.S., despite all its wealth and bluster, is one of the least ready countries in the world to effectively deal with this pandemic. This is the price of a for profit non-universal healthcare non-system.
We are not great.
Without the capacity to ramp up testing and manufacture and distribute critical supplies, with millions of people financially excluded from adequate access to healthcare — not to mention immigrants legal and not discouraged from seeking help, we are headed for a perfect storm of medieval proportions.
The Republican/Trump/Russian Party won’t be able to Fox News their way out of this one. You might be able to fool Republican voters, but viruses are immune to propaganda.
109
@Chickpea
The hospitals in China struggled as well.
1
@Chickpea Trump is already blaming Obama.
17
Imperato
I gagged when I heard don the con say that. I am not totally familiar with whatever regulation trump is blaming Obama for, but I know this. Obama was smart. He listened to his experts in the CDC, NIH and DHS. And he had real experts, not “yes men” in charge of those organizations. And Obama had an intact functioning Pandemic Disease division in those organizations. Trump cut them out in 2017 because he is just dumb and anti-science.
47
Are obese people considered high risk? I can't seem to find any information on this.
3
Karl, obesity per se does not increase the risk, but other conditions which may be linked to obesity, like diabetes or high blood pressure.
7
Whether technically high risk or not I can’t say, but in reality yes, higher risk in that fat cells don’t have antibodies like lean tissue does.
1
I read or heard, but I cannot recall where, that obese people are more at risk. I only read/listen to reputable news sources, but you should verify.
1
American don't get the test that S Korean and the Europeans are getting...Some kind of reduction of SS benefit pay out is going on.
5
All of these unnecessary suffering, loss and deaths are simply because of the eating habit of one country -- China!
Now that coronavirus is spreading like wildfire in the U.S, the very same people are hoarding daily supplies, food, water and safety supplies.
I am angry beyond words!
6
@Hendry
Zoonotic viruses occur with Western-style factory farming, too. You're wrong that this is all about China's "eating habits." Xenophobia gone mad.
59
I am an infectious disease practitioner. We are desperate. We have less than three weeks of masks left, and about as many gloves. We can’t order more. Other hospitals only have days of needed equipment. This is chaos of the greatest magnitude. We don’t have enough testing kits. Every lab we have spoken to laughs at Pence and his 1 million tests by the end of the week. We simply can’t do it. What is our government DOING. This is exponentially increasing EVERYWHERE in the US. The reason more cases haven’t been found is we don’t have tests!!!
We reached critical triage today with a single open ICU bed, no floor beds and our nurses are calling out sick with respiratory illness. We can’t even test them to see what they might have so they are safe to treat patients. By the time the government gets a clue we are going to be dealing with people dying because we have no supplies and no space.
You can threaten to use war powers all you like, but it can’t fix that we simply don’t have the capacity in the US to make the masks or the gloves. Let alone the medicine.
Do people realize the critical emergency this is?!
2373
@Dr.E
Grateful that you took the time to let the US know what's happening in your state.
Hopefully the AMA, AHA, and Joint Commission can do whatever they can to support doctors, hospitals and clinics by helping to tell the truth and assisting wherever they can.
Hearing directly from physicians, nurses, scientists is helpful!
195
@Dr.E
The people who think, know how serious this issue is. It is the Trump administration that doesn't grasp anything but making money off of the American citizen.
Pence is going around telling everyone that they can get tested. Does this man not think?, there are not enough of anything that we need.
Trump lies are coming back right into their ignorant faces.
150
@Dr.E - Wow, the readers here know the problem will be BIG, but the happy-face news from Washington DC is clearly masking the scope of the problem TODAY. Thank you so much for posting this timely information from the real world.
192
Pence which is a name rhyming with incompetence refused to say that the pandemic is not a hoax. Parsing words and not offending the president was more important than just stating a simple fact.
I saw Trump questioning health professionals with a bullying smirk, about when a vaccine would be ready. This was answered right in front of him days ago, the answer being 12-18 months. He kept repeating the question and trying to rephrase it as within a few months- even 2 or 3 months. The health professionals were clearly trying not to say it too directly to his theatrical clown mask. They they were obviously afraid of answering although the answer was given a few days several times with him present.
On this occasion he seemed to be manically unable to accept the answer, which anyone paying attention knew was 12-18 months.
He just would not accept it. He seems to think he can alter reality to fit his personal convenience. It was sickening, repulsive, preposterous and downright frightening. It reminded me of those cabinet meetings when each GOP sycophant took turns to grovel shamelessly as he presided like a tin pot dictator. It did not seem very American to me- more like Papa Doc the anti-American Haitian despot.
174
You nailed it Bob Guthrie!
21
@Bob Guthrie We are hogtied in the back seat of a car driven at high speed by a toddler; scream if you wish
7
For those who want to minimize the Coronavirus and say that it is lower because of undetected cases; keep in mind that if you calculate using current completed cases, the rate is a lot higher. Completed is dead or recovered. 51,026 recovered plus 3,214 dead is 54,240 completed. 3,214 out of 54,240 is 5.9%. So you are all correct, 5.9% will come down. The WHO is saying that will come down to 3.4%.
30
@somebody I'm sorry but that's not the way we calculate mortality. Your term 'completed' makes no sense. It's the number dead divided by the total number of cases.
3220/94301*100 = 3.4%
Please don't report inaccurate information. It will only induce further panic.
9
@Sue
Your number is also incorrect. It is missing one very important term:
3220/(94301+undetected cases)*100=(mortality rate)%
Please fill in the correct number for the undetected cases, then recalculate.
7
if the disease had run its course you would be correct. but, you don't know of the unresolved active cases how many will die. you can't treat them as all predetermined to survive as your example would.
5
Have heard no mention of how allergy season will impact the transmission rate. Common sense would dictate that the transmission rate will increase due to more sneezing and rubbing of eyes and noses. Let’s hear from Pence and company on this.
17
"Health officials have warned that the virus seems to spread easily, traveling through the air in tiny droplets produced when a sick person breathes, talks, coughs or sneezes.”
And why exactly is there a no cough policy on our buses, trains, restaurants, somebody please sue the city to get one, you might be the person who saves us. Sue the city for a billion dollars, because you don't feel safe.
2
And now, for a cure:Since Iran is going to make a bomb and detonate it somewhere, that country can be held up as the saviors of the world, because a nuclear explosion will probably stop the spread of the coronavirus in its tracks!
2
Reports out of China and Korea indicate the COVID 19 patients get better on Vitamin C therapy; intravenous for severe cases and oral for milder cases and a preventative. This would be a disaster for Pharma, the CDC and the FDA, as huge profits for vaccines and therapeutics would disappear. For the CDC and the WHO, it would mean no need for draconian measures to force people to quarantine and, thus, loss of power to force vaccination, etc. That is why you are starting to see anti-vitamin hit pieces in the media, which are controlled by Pharma via advertising dollars . So, are you going to believe the crooks making money or someone who stands to gain nothing?
7
@Dan
If I had COVID-19 and my doctor gave me Vitamin C gummies instead of big-pharma-produced medicine, I'd find another doctor real fast. I'm sure most Americans would not accept Vitamin-C as a Corona cure all.
23
@Tom
My physician, who also is my best friend, told me that taking 1000 mg. of vitamin-c per day would increase my resistance. That is far different from calling vitamins a cure.
18
@Dan I am sure you can give links to these "reports"
14
Folks,
Apparently N95 respirators,the preferred PPE , are not available in adequate numbers for use in US hospitals.
So when caring for sick patients who perhaps are infected but are not confirmed yet, regular face masks are being recommended to the frontline staff.
2
A health care provider engaged me in a conversation trying to convince me that the Coronavirus alarm was mere political weaponry.
2
Please read the recent articles in Vox and Salon, which are much less hysterical. This spreads far less efficiently than does the flu. The death rate (as acknowledged here after publishing a preliminary rate known to be artificially high) will prove to be much lower than reported here, because many cases are quite mild. As with most such illnesses it is the elderly, with underlying conditions, bearing the brunt. Children almost never show symptoms. China is showing a reduction in new cases even as they get better at identifying the illness. This is not “the big one”.
5
@Buster Dee
Not so. China's number of new cases went up today, after two days of decline.
7
China is showing lower infection rates because they’ve taken draconian measures that will never fly in this country. I can see those assault type rifles coming out to defend their freedom to travel at will if we tried that here. Yeah, rugged individualism!! Spread that virus
2
@Julian please review theWHO official quoted by Vox. Long term trend is the point.
1
"Among people who catch seasonal flus, about 0.1 to 0.2 percent die from the illness, though the number varies widely from year to year, ....." This is why I LOVE The New York Time. I saw people who are quoting 0.5% to 0.6%. I went to CDC website and look through about 9 years of U.S. flu mortality rate. New York Time's 0.1 to 0.2 percent is right on target.
9
I am teaching 400+ students 6hrs per week. I cannot wear face mask during my classes.
9
I’m now trying to imagine how much better things might be if we had a real, functioning national health system with sufficient resources. And this comes at the same time that the biggest proponent of Medicare for all is — for a second time — being driven from his rightful place at the head of the Democratic national ticket. It’s disgraceful.
11
This virus is going to increase quickly and substantially, especially with people who air travel. And sitting on a plane with the air circulating within the plane is not healthy on a good day!
9
This is why these viruses have been successful for 4.5 billion years: here they have found a niche in which they strive by making us, these self-proclaimed "big brain" social apes, fear each other!
5
No need to panic folks.
Our Maximum Commander says it will disappear soon as the weather gets warmer.
Plus there will be a vaccine soon. Like, next Wednesday at the latest.
12
@Robert Crooks
I heard that the vaccine will be invented and distributed over the weekend, so the markets can get back to normal next week. Thank God for Donald Trump, truly an exceptional man. What would we do without him?
2
I shouldn't have to say this but for the love of god stop boarding cruise ships with the name "princess" in them.
31
And FAUX news now wants the government to pay for treatment. Up is down.
10
Trump blaming Obama. Of course he is. Has this man ever taken responsibility for ANYTHING in his life?? What a terrible, terrible president.
30
This Grand Princess cruise ship is the one my spouse and I are supposed to take for a cruise out of Vancouver in June. Great. We both have underlying medical conditions that have been controlled for many years. Do the CDC warnings also pertain to us? We are beyond middle age but otherwise healthy. And I recently had to pay for this trip in full...just before this whole virus thing blew up. Our travel insurance carrier will only refund 100 percent if the cruise line cancels our cruise. What are the chances of that? This is big money for us. We also have an out of state wedding and a college graduation to attend down south. I wish there were more clear cut answers for travellers such as ourselves. This is very unsettling. And those in charge of this situation make me cringe. At this point, I would sacrifice the money for the cruise to stay safe.
7
@NAS
Maybe you should have thought of that before you laid out money for the cruise.
6
@Tim Lynch
The imperative words are "just before this whole virus thing blew up." It wasn't an issue when we paid.
1
I mean no offense but tough luck. You’re an adult. Make an educated and informed decision. Would your underlying medical conditioned prevent you from surviving pneumonia? Do you have children or family members who would be emotionally/financially devastated if you fell ill? Could you afford to be out of work for weeks if you were to be stuck in the cruise ship? It sound like cruise ships are one of the worst places to be in if you’re trying to avoid being infected. See the multiple ships that have been quarantined. You’re in a giant ship with god knows how many people coming from who knows where who have been exposed to god know what before getting on the ship. I mean it’s just like come on, this is a public health issue and people need to take responsibility for their Heath. The government can only do so much to keep you healthy and believe me they are not doing ALL they can to keep you healthy. If you can’t make an educated decision for yourself without needing an official statement from an agency.....we’ll best of luck.
1
Ok one more question. These tests for the virus were developed using one strain of coronavirus, I am presuming. What about the other strain? Will the test detect both or other variations of coronavirus also? Or will folks carrying other strains test negative?
11
Trump blames everything on someone else. Enough of a reason to dump him.
So exhausted by his whining victimhood.
65
Great, another cruise ship outbreak. WHY in the world are people still going on cruise ships?!
79
non refundable and risk is sexy
Anyone taking a cruise ship at this time, or “floating Petri dish” is putting the public’s health and safety at risk for selfish and unwise reasons. We’re not going to make it through this situation without making better decisions.
24
Reading the many idiotic comments here, I just wish we had a democrat as President, as the caronavirus would be so afraid when those infected who are on the ship offshore reach land, the virus would kill itself rather than face the wrath of Schumer and Pelosi! I can't believe what I read here, just so absurd. I guess every country where the virus spreads simply have inept leaders? Possible every leader in the world when it's all done. Truly moronic.
8
Not to incite pandemonium, but can we label this a pandemic already? Countries with lackluster capabilities and a penchant for maintaining image over public health will soon be overwhelmed. Looking at you Iran, and the surrounding countries like Afghanistan and Syria. Countries with state of the art faculties are slowly being overwhelmed. We're next.
I've been following this diligently since day one as a medical doctor with an undergraduate degree in bioengineering who's long been fascinated with emerging infectious diseases.
The WHO is always a dollar short and a day late, they're loath to affix appropriate labels out of fear of upsetting certain members (China) who don't take kindly to any hint of criticism. Well, it's here, and nothing we can do to stop it.
I do think that the Dartmouth individual should lose their medical license if they're a physician, violation of the Hippocratic oath. If anyone should have known better . . .
One thing we can do to slow it down though, make quarantines mandatory. Otherwise they're worthless. Just takes one contagious individual who decides they have to go out for groceries or to conduct business at the bank. They infect the cashier or bank teller, who in turn become contagious before symptoms overtly manifest, and a cycle begins anew.
Folks don't understand the purpose of quarantine, yes you lose freedom and individual rights in the name of protecting the masses. Sorry for the inconvenience, cough achoo.
31
I am also a physician and I am completely horrified that either a medical student/resident blew off quarantine and went to a party w other students and doctors!!! What?! Exposed a large group of healthcare providers, basically ensuring patients get exposed. He should not only lose his license if he has one, I think he should be charged w manslaughter if anyone dies as a result of his disregard for anyone but himself.
5
Two points to add: 1. the higher the reported cases, the more testing happening and therefore the smarter the approach. 2. I tried to get a test today with mild flu symptoms, such as those found in the MAJORITY of COVID-19 cases only to be denied.
Any strategy that puts fears of panic over stopping the spread and fixing numbers is a losing one in the long run, the lives of your parents and our elders are at stake here. we need widespread and free testing availible in special facilities, like South Korea's drive through system. that will alleviate strains on hospitals and keep beds for those testing positive.
28
@Mark Patrick Were you able to get them to test you for flu? Given that the COVID-19 tests are scarce, shouldn't people with symptoms like yours get tested for flu and H1N1 first (plus self-quarantine), then test you for COVID-19 only if the other tests come back negative? (Unless, of course, you are obviously high-risk in terms of past exposure to a known case or are health-compromised yourself.)
6
@Mark Patrick
What they’re doing in South Korea is exactly what we need - rapid drive-through testing. Someone in charge and competent needs to study what they are doing and emulate it here ASAP.
1
The WHO did not recommend travel bans, and still does not. The logic was that people would dodge the bans, that it would cause stigma and damage the economy. Meantime, the WHO has been praising China for using extraordinary internal travel bans. It sees different logic applies to travel bans inside countries compared to between countries.
In the news recently was the story of a hospital employee who was told to isolate himself, he did not isolate himself, went to a meeting and later tested positive for COVID-19. So much for not restricting people leading to better outcomes. Even Australia is losing its nerve and saying that it cannot prevent travellers from every bad area.
The WHO says that COVID-19 stigma is more dangerous than COVID-19 itself. I wonder if they mean by that that stigma has a 3.4% death rate and has killed more than 3000 people?
The way to calculate death rate is deaths divided by deaths+recovered. So far, 3200 have died and 52000 have recovered. That is a 6% death rate. To be fair, that calculation for death rate decreases with time as it is the more severe cases that are detected at first.
To protect myself. I have bought a few 3M welding-fume masks. They are so good at filtering things that they stop one smelling dead animals. Gasses are much smaller particles than viruses. Disclaimer: not a professional problem.
There is an online petition to have the head of the WHO resign.
7
The president blamed a federal agency decision during Barack Obama’s administration, which Trump said made it harder to quickly roll out testing for the virus.
“The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing, and we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion,” he told reporters during a White House meeting with airline executives, whom he had called to discuss the economic effects of the outbreak.
“That was a decision we disagreed with,” he said. I don’t think we would have made it, but for some reason, it was made.”
It’s unclear what decision, exactly, Trump is referring to.
The Trump administration has been criticized for dismantling an Obama effort to respond to global health emergencies more quickly. The president has also come under fire for not rolling out widespread testing for corona virus more quickly, and spreading false information about the disease
24
If you believe Dr. Bruce Aylward's interview about the Chinese response, this crisis does not threaten Xi's legitimacy but cements it. Our response, on the hand, may threaten the legitimacy of our gummint.
9
I’m not sure.. I think Chinese people do appreciate our nation a lot throughout this epidemic, and dr. Zhong Nanshan, Li Wenliang, and many other ordinary Chinese... but not politicians, everyone knows how they are, most of them are pretty useless.
1
Sadly, this is what I think our President will think as he signs the emergency funding bill for Coronavirus: "Geez, I wish I could use these funds for the wall."
Vote.
20
This is a crisis, but also an opportunity for big Pharmaceutical companies show their stuff. Why do we have the most expensive healthcare system in the world should address the Coronavirus crisis head on. If we fail to meet the challenge, then we might as well change the private healthcare system to social healthcare system simply because we fail the challenge.
This is a crisis, but also an opportunity for our government to show how to handle a crisis. If president Trump fail to meet the challenge, then we might vote for any person representing the Democratic party with just one single issue: how to protect American lives. Not a single bullet has to be fired & Democrat won.
7
So, two days ago HHS said that labs could conduct 15,000 tests per day. That was a lie. Mike Pence said today that 2500 test kits are going out this week, enough to test 1.5 million people, and that anyone who wanted a test could get one. Another deception. Because TODAY, the Association of Health Laboratories said that nationally, labs will be able to test 10,000 cases per day by the END OF THE WEEK.
We are being lied to by our own government. Pence is not leading an effective government response; he is the leading SPIN doctor pretending that the government is doing more than it is.
(By the way, tiny South Korea is already testing 10,000 per day. Why can't the U.S. do better than that?)
60
The stakes are getting higher in King County. I do fear that we will look like Italy with empty streets. We are ground zero.
If you think it's a hoax, good luck to you. I live seven miles from the hotel that will be used to quarantine sick individuals. My daughter regularly jogs by a quarantine building in North Bend. I drive by shut down schools. Businesses are assuring people they disinfect surfaces.
Keep an eye on Seattle.
30
@Maureen G - Well, REI has closed three stores, Microsoft cancelled some meeting, Facebook had to close their building, the Pike Place Market is a ghost town, and an employee at Amazon has tested positive. And that all happened since I read the paper yesterday.
Oh the bright side though - we have all spent most of the winter indoors hibernating per our usual seasonal habits limiting our exposure to each other. We have cleaner air than China and smoking here has to be done outside 25' from the entrance to a building. Its hard to chain smoke outside this time of year in 38 degree rain so our lungs should be better to begin with. And most folks would have gotten a free flu shot and not already have been beaten down by that. Lastly, we had already had Christmas before the first case landed here so all of our family get togethers had already happened. The Seahawks were already done for the season, we vote by mail, and many folks here order everything online to begin with limiting public exposure. Our tourist season doesn't start for a couple more months.
And most importantly - we are not ground zero. We have all had over a month watching the people of China and Italy and learned from experts what works, what doesn't, and common sense things we can do as citizens to reduce our chances of being a statistic.
3
Myth #1
Elderly people are more susceptible to contract the virus so best to limit your contact with elderly. At least 7 deaths occurred at Seattle area nursing home. What’s wrong with this picture?
People in nursing homes don’t go to Starbucks for coffee. They’re not social butterflies. Why? Because people in nursing never leave nursing homes. They’re too sick, weak, vulnerable. So how did they contract the virus? What risk do they pose?
We know people infected may be asymptomatic. Their immune systems absorb the virus, so detection of virus remains dormant. They appear—and are—healthy. They move about freely. They're lucky. However, they can be—and are—deadly.
Furthermore, a high schooler tested positive for the virus, so their assessment about the elderly is unsustainable. That’s why this is a pandemic.
Viruses do not discriminate. Especially one that creeps through a population slowly before symptoms appear—if they appear. So, once again, how did the elderly become infected? They blame the elderly for spreading the virus. But is that assessment sustainable?
Consider who cares for the elderly. People from community who enter the facility. The elderly are the victims here. But not only the elderly, but entire communities. Those from the community who care for the elderly could be asymptomatic carriers who have yet to show symptoms. It appears that 1+1=2. Coincidental.
They got it backwards.
And that’s why this will be a full-blown pandemic.
10
mwoman
Boy, you have got that wrong.
They do not want people, including relatives, visiting the elderly in nursing hones etc because they, the visitor, may infect them, not vice versa. That is what causes outbreaks in nursing homes. That and sick healthcare workers.
Every year nursing homed post signs given to them by their local health departments on their front doors: “If you are sick, do not visit.”
6
@Country Girl
At this point, visitors are at risk. Visitors cannot have direct contact with their loved ones that reside in the care center. Some visitors
are talking through glass windows. This has been reported through local Seattle news organizations.
@Country Girl
Your first sentence is a bold statement: “Boy, you have gotten that wrong.” But if I were wrong, why would you then mirror my conclusion? Could’ve have been a proofreading error, but that’s highly unlikely. It’s a response that contradicts itself.
Then there are the signs. Both you and the commenter below refer to signs posted on doors prohibiting people who are sick from entering the facility. Who does that benefit? Who does that protect? The assumption is the elderly who have compromised immune systems are ideal targets for the virus to thrive, and therefore this population is extremely dangerous for those on the other side.
Nursing homes are semi-permeable environments. People come and go. But the elderly go nowhere. They’re basically there for one purpose only. They know they’ve reached the final stage of the life cycle. They know we have put them there to die.
Now if the virus determined the most efficient source of its survival were those with compromised immune systems—the ideal environment—naturally, would be the elderly who live in nursing homes. That would be a whopping victory for the virus.
But somehow only 7 of 10 (so far) infected died. That makes me wonder whether we have underestimated the immunity systems of the elderly. If all have compromised immune systems then there would be no one to visit. They would all be dead.
How long will it be until half of the funds are diverted to the "wall" that Mexico is building?
6
Trump is going to try to wing his way through this disaster too and people will unnecessarily die.
12
With all the new cases and our state of emergency in Los Angeles I am appalled that none of our elected officials are shutting down the LA Marathon being held this Sunday. It’s like the want us to get more infections, because 6 are not enough.
16
Rather than community by community or state by state, perhaps the entire United States should declare a State of Emergency. A wholesale, coordinated effort, coast-to-coast, would do far better at nipping COVID-19 in the bud than is the current waiting-for-the-inevitable to occur as it yo-yo's out indefinitely into the future.
Mass-quarantine for everybody except vital public services. Give us a week or so to prepare, then 2 - 3 weeks of lockdown at home. Everyone shares the pain more or less equally, and it is for the common social good.
Relegate the virus to the dustbin of history in 4 - 6 weeks, two months, tops.
50
@David Bartlett Agreed. I am surprised corporations haven't told their non-essential laptop tethered employees to just stay home for 4 weeks. I can do my job remotely and will likely be more productive.
20
The person who drove the New Rochell patient also is infected. I am not sure how WHO is saying this is less contagious than flu??
Why isn’t mass gatherings like the conferences being cancelled? It’s unnerving there will be a conference here in DC with thousands of people- it will be to DC what’s Shinchunji of Daegu. In one way or another covid19 will reshape the how the election campaigns are run.
25
If first picture in this article shows paramedics transporting patient diagnosed with Covid-19 or suspected of having this infection, that PPE paramedic wear is totally inadequate, no eye protection( except what seem to be his own corrective glasses), gown doesn’t cover whole body, no head or shoe covers. The particular brand of gloves he’s wearing are of poor quality and tear frequently. One of previous articles included picture of healthcare workers from Life Care Center in Kirkland with flower patterned scrubs, those are NOT provided by healthcare institutions, but staff have to buy them and wash at home! What can get wrong with that? Hospital I work in, administration forced staff to buy their own workwear and needless to say people are bringing it home with all the bugs on them.That apples to ICU, regular floors and Postoperative Recovery Unit, only exception is Operating Room, where scrubs are provided by hospital and washed by specialized services. Those practices seem to be widespread in USA and in my opinion have to end!
41
Maybe spending billions on military hardware for the defense of our country is not the type of spending that our defense needs?
38
Thanks to the republicans the monies were allocated in a way that is sure to help jack up the price of any treatment or vaccine developed, keeping big pharma in the money. Thanks republicans, we can always count on you to value money over life.
20
I'm appalled at some of the misinformation our elected officials and even health officials are putting out. No, prolonged contact is not required unless you consider living in the same nursing home, driving a cab for a sick person, being on the same boat as someone, attending the same church, etc.. "Prolonged contact." I just saw an NYU Dr. on TV downplaying the whole thing and saying "Look, the Chinese already have this almost under control." You know how? Closing everything. Draconian social isolation. That's what worked.
45
The two Republicans who voted against this should explain themselves to the public. Many lives are in the balance, if this pandemic gets further out of control.
26
@Alex -In all fairness, our governor and mayor need to explain why they didn't start some emergency drills/planning over a month ago when the first case landed at SeaTac.
They at the least should have called an emergency meeting with Bezos, Gates, Schultz, and the new Boeing CEO and discussed what would happen if they had to shut down those campuses. (One Amazon confirmed case now, Microsoft cancelled a meeting, and Facebook had to close their office). They should have had an emergency meeting with all of the principals of the schools, the hospital directors, etc.
But everyone seemed to take a wait and see approach and now all of our politicians on both sides of the aisle are starting their usual finger pointing like they did during the ongoing Flint, Michigan water crisis.
1
@tom harrison
This isn't "both-sides" nonsense. If anything, King County and Washington State have been more well-prepared than anyone in the Trump administration, with public health officials ready to act and state and local legislators ready to allocate resources.
Republicans have been in charge of the federal response, and while they've had plenty of time to prepare, they chose to sit on their hands and pray for PR photos. That's nonsense. They need to explain their behavior.
How is any of this possibly Obama's fault? (Not that we didn't all see this coming.)
When China was first reporting this outbreak back in early January, there was PLENTY of time for the president to order the FDA to make sure enough labs were approved to handle tests. Besides, he told us he was the only one who could do anything, right? Why is he now claiming Obama could do it better?
32
Could hospitals please ban health care workers from wearing their scrubs to and from the hospital. It's ridiculous and grossly unhealthy. In NYC the trains always have people wearing scrubs. Straight from the hospital. In the UK and Australia and much of Europe the practice is banned and people change at work. Here in the States I have seen people in bloodied scrubs standing next tp me on public transport.
70
@MartinC When I worked with infectious diseases, we were not allowed to wear lab clothing outside of the lab. I believe this is against most organization's policies. I would confront the worker and tell them. Some people think it's 'cool' to show-off but completely inappropriate.
18
I was an EMT and the FDNY medic said it ess essential to be in non work gear before and after shift. why bring something home?
1
Can we do these across the US?
1) Ban all leisure travel within and out of the US ?
2)How about all employers encourage non-essential workers to telecommute?
3)Ban retailers and on-line merchants stop selling N95 respirators to the lay public while further increasing production of PPE for frontline healthcare staff?
4)Have federal funding for testing for coronavirus free of charge when indicated
5) Provide federal guarantee of income if sick with coronavirus for low income wage earners
6)Provide childcare resources to parents needing to report to essential work when schools close?
7) Ban all large gatherings?
26
I guess because we don’t do that for the flu which has already killed 15,000 people in America this season?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
6
@mari - A lot of this we can just do ourselves. No one needs to tell me that this is not a good time to go out dancing to Madonna this Saturday night. I know better than to get on a Boeing 737 MAX or book a flight or cruise this week.
I hope the money comes from the Pentagon, as was done with Trump's "emergency" wall declaration (which apparently allowed illegal viruses to enter the country).
14
No national emergency, though.
3
I disinfect my TV every time Trump appears on it.
120
Coronavirus doesn't care about any human gender, color aka race, ethnicity, national origin, faith, education, politics nor socioeconomics.
5
If your wealthy you can take many more steps to avoid the virus than if you’re poor, working or middle class. For example they can afford to isolate themselves without severe economic hardship as well as they can access more quickly medical care through the for profit medical care systems in the US.
16
@Kevinlarson
If you are wealthy biological science regarding coronavirus human health epidemic and pandemic viral impact still applies to you.
The common cold is a coronavirus.
Michael Bloomberg, Howard Hughes and Donald Trump style plutocrat capitalist oligarch germaphobia is neither a cure nor a defense against the likes of coronavirus.
Your parental genetic DNA heritage defines your biological nature. While your cultural nurture is destination unknown. That is your basic equal opportunity defense to coronavirus.
1
I loved this- someone able to maintain their humanity amidst all this
“So saying 80 percent of all cases are mild doesn’t mean what we thought?”
“I’m Canadian. This is the Wayne Gretzky of viruses — people didn’t think it was big enough or fast enough to have the impact it does.”
DR. Bruce Aylward of WHO
14
"we still don’t have known cases of community transmission,”
WRONG
We know there are two community-transmissions in northern CA and one in OR. At a minimum, NYT should clarify this point, and yet it has been repeated in multiple articles.
11
@Randy - I don't know how one would not define the nursing home deaths in Kirkland, Washington as community transmission since the only place (other than the facility) those poor folks had been in the last two months would have been a local hospital. They were not on a cruise or South Korea or Italy or China.
Why in the world would Republican Representatives Andy Biggs of Arizona and Ken Buck of Colorado vote against this package?
Unbelievable.
25
Don't worry folks, the stable genius is on the case. Today compulsive liar Donald Trump actually blamed President Obama for the Trump Administration's feeble response to the crisis. Sadly, locking yourself inside your house and ceasing all human contact sounds more sensible than trusting that this charlatan, and his band of science-deniers are going to do anything to protect the public.
27
A great article by Reuters on why the coronavirus is likely to hit Americans so much harder than most other developed nations:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-economy-analys/fragile-safety-net-leaves-u-s-economy-vulnerable-to-coronavirus-hit-idUSKBN20R2IM
Why do we seem to forget that we are the richest nation ever to exist on this planet when it comes to caring for our people?
16
Other nations are...
Creating pop-up neighborhood fever clinics where anyone with a fever can go to get a COVID-19 blood test without sitting next to people w/o fevers.
Asking all citizens to take their temperatures twice a day and report to a pop-up fever clinic for testing if their temperature remains at 99.5 F or higher.
Announcing that COVID-19 blood tests, quarantine and treatment will be covered by the government.
Organizing healthcare volunteers to go the homes of ill people and do on-site testing for those who are infirm.
Providing hospital workers with safety googles, N95 masks, gloves, and full gowns.
Encouraging companies to provide full sick pay for workers quarantined for COVID-19 for 14 days.
Selecting sites that could be used as field hospitals if necessary and prepping them with necessary beds and supplies.
Announcing all of the above and letting citizens know numbers to call if they have questions.
I’ve seen next to none of the above here in the USA. Come on, all of you politicians who are so eager to serve the public! Get to work and start serving!
40
We need to list these requests and inundate our elected officials. Who’s in?
1
Mitch, oh, Mitch...you can bring this one up for a vote...
9
The do-nothing Democrats come to the rescue ... re-funding the defunded CDC. You're welcome. No word yet as to whether or not the funds will be detoured to concentration camps and fencing.
5
The hype and hysteria around COVID-19 is more damaging than the virus.
The number of deaths, even if it grows rapidly, will still be so small that accountants would call it a rounding error in the big picture. Not material. Yet the media goes nuts over a new death or two. Elected officials panic. Steps are taken that seriously disrupt life in general and the economy.
Check CDC data on leading causes of death. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
Top ten: Heart disease, 647,457; Cancer, 599,108; Accidents (unintentional injuries), 169,936; Chronic lower respiratory diseases, 160,201; Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases), 146,383; Alzheimer’s, 121,404; Diabetes: 83,564; Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672; Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis,50,633; Intentional self-harm (suicide), 47,173.
Please quit the hype and hysteria and start looking at this outbreak rationally and realistically.
4
@Tom Gable
"The number of deaths, even if it grows rapidly, will still be so small that accountants would call it a rounding error in the big picture. Not material... Please quit the hype and hysteria and start looking at this outbreak rationally and realistically."
ARE YOU KIDDING?
Let me explain something called exponential growth, as you clearly don't understand such a rational and realistic phenomenon: The number of cases in the US increased almost 30% today. If we assume that rate of growth continues (epidemics tend to grow exponentially), we will have almost a thousand cases in a week, 160,000 in a month, and it could infect nearly everyone in the country by early May. That is the rational and realistic math. If the death rate is 2% now, it will become much higher when the hospitals are full, the healthcare workers are sick and all services break down. We are talking tens of millions of deaths.
8
@Mary Elizabeth Lease and many other commenters are actually Russian trolls planting comments and false info that puts the US government in a bad light. The Times should get a clue or be dismissed like Facebook. No, the US government is not manipulating CDC data.
9
This should conclude the debate on whether the administration has reduced funding for the CDC.
https://www.cdc.gov/budget/documents/fy2020/cdc-overview-factsheet.pdf
3
I would like to see data on the number of folks hospitalized with Covid-19 in the US. This illness will put such a strain health care professionals and in fact all who work in any capacity in health care. My thoughts are with them.
9
This is a "Medicaid for All" that will be impossible to contain. Once the American people become addicted to Federal aid on health matters, that genie is free.
The next step is to pull the plug on all federal military spending since the Second Amendment authorizes citizens, not the government to form militias and keep democracy safe from federal powers.
3
@Max Shapiro
Nonsense. It is not an addiction to get the health care that the rest of the developed world gets. The big Insurance companies are addicted to the easy money preying on the inevitable ill health that people suffer. You don't need the public armed to the teeth either- that is a gun fetish addiction. The price you pay with your lack of a social security net is going to cost the economy more in terms of virus spread and other problems like people not being able to self-isolate. It has nothing to do with genies. Why have a country if the main priority is not the citizenry? This is not the American Dream... it is an American delusion. You' re the richest most powerful country on earth. You can provide the health care people get everywhere else in the industrialised West.
15
@Max Shapiro -
Huh?
8
@Bob Guthrie
I apologize if I caused you to think I was alarmed, in a negative way, that the US Gov't had just contradicted itself on the healthcare issue. To further illustrate, our Constitution supports militias, but not standing armies. Therefore, the entire military industrial complex is unconstitutional and what the Constitution expects of us is that States and counties form militias, not the central federal government. Americans aren't capable of reading the Constitution, so I seem like a madman, to them by asserting such ideas.
The Times has such a huge voice now, you should put the story about Trump blaming Obama on the front page, and tell the truth so Americans can read it.
If FOXnews implies any different than what is fact, and indeed, doesn't tell it's fans why, if Trump is such a brain, he gutted his health advisors early in his reign of stupidity, and change the Obama travesty three years ago.
Same old Trump .Telling his gullible supporters who think it's all a hoax (TRUMPS words) that of course, it's Obama's fault.
Trump is the President since January 2017. It's ALL on him now. He is such a ridiculous fool and every day it gets worse. I guess he thinks the press has no way to confirm his lies.
40
@Ignatz
No law, regulation, rule. Another Trump lie.
“On 11/18/16 the FDA announced that it would not finalize the draft guidance entitled Framework for Regulatory Oversight of Laboratory Developed Tests(Draft Guidance) prior to the end of the Obama administration...
FDA issued the Draft Guidance on 10/3/14... The Draft Guidance outlined a phased-in approach for both premarket review and postmarket requirements, including registration and listing, medical device reporting, and Quality System Regulation requirements. Section 1143 of the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act...
Had the Obama administration intended to move forward with a final guidance before the end of the administration, the notification required by FDASIA would had to have been issued by November 19, 2016. At the same time, lawmakers had threatened to use the Congressional Review Act to block FDA from finalizing guidance documents imposing the FDCA on LDTs. On Friday, an FDA spokesperson confirmed that the Agency would not finalize the Draft Guidance during the Obama administration: “The FDA believes that patients and health care providers need accurate, reliable, and clinically valid tests to make good health care decisions — inaccurate or false test results can harm individual patients. We ...realize just how important it is that we continue to work with stakeholders, our new Administration, and Congress to get our approach right...”
2
Here is an exclusive interview of the leading expert of W.H.O. who just came back from their two weeks investigation in China. It gives highly detailed information that could answer many of your questions:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
15
@Hannah
Thank-you Hannah!
Just read the article. Dr. Bruce Aylward provided an understanding of what's occurred in China that hopefully everyone will read.
Grateful for his work.
2
As an older white working class man who voted for Trump, I want to apologize. This man is a con man and I am worried about my health. I will talk to me neighbors but it won't matter much to them. They are dug in. I can only pray and vote. I will vote for anyone other than this man.
194
@Mixilplix Thank you for your honesty!
23
@Mixilplix I am sorry but voting for trump is like committing crime against humanity. You don't get to say sorry and get on with your life while destruction is all around us.
12
@Mixilplix I am glad you realised in time for November. He is the greatest con man in history. Good luck avoiding the virus. Trump is too incompetent and self interested to care about average Americans.
28
look for Azar's resignation in the next week...or his firing by tweet.
21
I'm not positive, maybe I'm suffering from fever, but..
I think I just saw Mike Pence on TV teaching citizens proper technique on how to blow their nose.
Step 4 - Throw tissue in trash.
Thanks, Mike. Good job. You really earned your pay today.
35
Here is an exclusive interview of the leading expert of W.H.O. who just came back from their 2 weeks investigation in China. It gives highly detailed information that could answer many of your questions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
F.Y.I. Unlike the ‘Great Blue Wall’ article, this very informative report that is freshly published today, for some reason cannot be seen on NYT front page, unless you search for it.
Read it and tell me which one contains more useful information that people need desperately right now.
11
@Han
Very hard to find. Great article. Thank you.
3
@Han Excellent article. No way the U.S. can put up any kind of response like the Chinese.
3
Yes you can!!
Unfortunately the situation in China started with chaos like what’s going on in the States too... However, it was the ordinary people who stood up and put information together and donating resources to help each others out.
People from all different fields and areas joined together on social media and get things really well organized. Then with increasing critics on social media, the government stepped in and took the job over... Eventually the government did do an excellent job though, but I’m more proud of each individual people;)
That’s what I mean, it is really the time everyone unites and do whatever you could to get through! (If the Trump administration remains to be a piece of wood...)
3
I will add one bit of hygiene to the discussion that is even more effective at containing sneezes and coughs:
Sneeze and cough into the inside of your shirt (near your collarbone) with your elbow covering it.
Lift your shirt over your nose and mouth with one hand (keeping it as closed off as possible), turn your head down into armpit area, and use your elbow to trap the sneeze / cough. My two physician friends do this now, too. Just be careful not to accidentally touch your face.
7
The death rate in the US is much higher than elsewhere, 11/153 = 7%
6
Fortunately, the rate is actually much lower. Unfortunately - we have no idea what the denominator is because there has been VERY LITTLE TESTING.
Here in Seattle, many of us are concerned that we are either exposed or silently carrying the virus. But until testing is more commonplace we won’t be able to calculate real rates.
13
Buck and Biggs voted against the bill.
Just in case you do not know, they are Republicans. Why did they vote against funding? The deficit? Come on, they voted for the Liar’s tax cuts and every other measure that increased the deficit and the debt.
Come on Republicans, in November, vote Democratic. It seems Republicans do not care if you get infected by THE virus.
20
@Robert
Thank you. Happy to help...
President Trump I am begging you, it has come to this, begging. Call up the leaders of Japan and Italy and ask their advice. Both countries had big breakout and made quick moves to stem the virus, and they have a handle on things .Please call them, the Italians and Japanese are not worried because their governments have made them feel secure. They are fighting back against Corona. Please call them they are three weeks ahead of us. The world will soon be crying about us, please call them... and do something.
5
Unfortunately Japan is not reacting quick enough this time. Abe has under a lot of fire for not banning trips to and from China when the virus began. They sold out 1billion masks because people were buying them from abroad, same goes to the US. We can’t buy anything protective gears for people who are actually sick from flu or cold.
The only country that has mask ban from exporting is Taiwan, and they have been handling the situation well. I hope Trump can take some advice from Taiwan and Singapore.
I am so disappointed in how slow response the country has taken. We should have taken safety measures when the outbreak first occurred in China.
9
@Lonnie Much better idea: ask him to call Singapore, they have been applauded by the international health community on how they handled this case.
8
@Lonnie Japan is not a country you should take advice from with their Diamond Princess disaster.
4
this money with disappear into the coffers of the private health 'care' system like the tax dollars (more than any other country per capita and it's still not free) that are syphoned into it constantly
a lot of poor people are going to die in the US
15
Wuhan has over 11 million people . 80, 000 people in China got the virus. 2,981 died. They only had 12 new cases today. There are 27,299 active cases today ( but again, only 12 new cases today) .Doesn't the number of people who got the virus have to be considered in terms of the total population? Is my math off?
4
Upside: nyc subway system is getting cleaned!
27
@KDC and so is the global atmosphere, especially around China.
5
I'm sure somehow Trump will appropriate some of this money to build his wall.
10
Watching MIke Pence....
Mike can you PLEASE stop trumpetting Trump's "great leadership"?
It's his JOB. The buck stops with Trump. It's his JOB.
I think you forget because like the rest of us, we grow concerned that Trump spends so much of his day playing on Twitter and watching television. Perhaps if he had focused more on a virus that shut down the worlds 2nd largest economy (DUUUUHHHHH) and put down the phone, stopped pardoning criminals, and put off golf dates, we would've had testing ability a month ago.
So again. Stop with the Trump great leadership nonsense. He's doing the job the American people put him into office for. He's been concentrating on one half of the population who voted for him....now he's finding out the hard way that viruses don't care what party you are in. Anyone, including him and his family and his grifter friends, could become infected.
THAT"S when he decided to move. Until then, his "leadership skills' involved infantile tweets and gibberish.
19
Since it is likely that ordinary citizens and medical practitioners must get information from social media. I thought I’d ask my layman questions to an open forum of intelligent folk. If the corona virus binds today ace2 receptors (and initiates a sequence of events like the venom of the pit viper bothrops jacaraca), then can folks even with mild illnesses expect to have low blood pressure due to vascular dilation and an excess of excretion of Na and water by the kidneys? What is the best way to alleviate this? Gatorade? I am not joking, since no one has information it’s time for the public to help out and think loudly.... like in the Well blog on the Health page.
2
Enough of the “but x number of people died from influenza over the last 5 min” business. That’s like saying , “stop worrying about those newfangled gun things, hundreds died by the sword last week “.
11
It no doubt is right to spend 8.3 billion on this, but still, considering the 1 trillion a deficit, it is like watching poor people open another case of champagne that they cannot afford.
But it is a good decision, just the same.
2
@David Martin
We always have ways to clean up our budget. Cut spending, proper taxation.
What we lack is guts.
3
I am currently traveling back to Seattle from New Zealand and I have experienced a risky practice by Airlines that could be facilitating the transmission of this virus. The practice is way boarding passes are handled. With both Airlines, the gate agent takes a potentially contaminated boarding pass in their hands and places it on the scanner. They then take the next pass with their possibly contaminated hands and place it on a possibly contaminated scanner. This is one possible vector for the disease moving through the population. This practice is exacerbated by the passengers boarding being unable to immediately was their hands. Hopefully there is someone with more expertise than me looking at disease vectors such as these. For me on my next flight home tomorrow, I will utilize hand sanitizer immediately after getting my boarding pass back and not touch it again until I get home.
15
How amazing that money suddenly materializes while Republicans and Trump, ,as his proposed budget demonstrates, insist we don't have the funds for so many other needed social programs like students loan assistance, affordable housing, Medicaid, and agencies like the CDC.
16
If you are elderly and/or have chronic conditions and/or are immunocompromised, avoid public places, stay home, don't travel, and wash your hands. Order your groceries online and have them delivered or go to the store when no one is there.
15
@Lyn Robins - I live on disability and have had HIV for 19 years along with other issues. I do what you suggest anyway but mostly to avoid getting shot in this country.
And who on earth doesn't already wash their hands?
1
Trump complained that an Obama ruling made it difficult for CDC to test for coronavirus? Seriously? He can change the law, no? And he waited until there is a crisis to complain? What about him dismantling the pandemic response team? The guy just won’t take any responsibility.
27
Our 'for profit' hospitals are so poorly run that they don't even have the proper staff, facilities, training, equipment or supplies needed for a national emergency. Heck, they can barely deal with the seasonal flu!
You can't be blaming Trump for the profit motivated decisions that hospital managers and administrators made. When hospital staff start coming down with symptoms... be sure to thank the Hospitals CEO, administrators and managers for the situation – because ultimately and all in the name of profit, it was their short sightedness that created the situation!
Remember, experts have been warning us for years that this would happen. Also keep in mind that past epidemics showed that our nations hospitals were not prepared. They've had plenty of time, money and resources to get better prepared - yet each time, we discover too late that they squandered the chances to get ready!
Own stock in hospitals? Need to sue them for not doing their fiduciary duties or meeting their responsibilities to the communities served!
People forget that our hospitals and ER's are already stretched to the limits because of the current flu epidemic. Next, throw in COVID-19, for which there is no agreed upon treatment or vaccine and see what that does to our health system.
Now throw in the fact that during a flu epidemic and COVID-19 Pandemic, people will still have accidents, heart attacks, cancer and a host of other medical emergencies.
During a Pandemic - life goes on!
8
"He appeared to be referring to a regulation that limited the ability of laboratories run by states, universities and private companies to conduct medical screenings not approved by the Food and Drug Administration. On Saturday, the F.D.A. commissioner, Stephen M. Hahn, allowed those labs to use coronavirus tests they had developed independently, after submitting evidence that the tests work."
Umm, isn't "submitting evidence that the tests work" to the F.D.A. technically "F.D.A. approval"? The inferiority complex Trump has when it comes to Obama is truly amazing.
16
I am so angry I can’t stand it, day after day it gets worse and nobody does anything, at least try and do something, all we do is wait for people to get sick and start testing, how about taking preemptive measure before they get sick like Japan and Italy. I know the statistics the death rate is overblown, but still it should spur action out of our mayor and governor : do what Japan did, ban all public gatherings, close the schools, make rules about leaving your house when your sick, they have people literally scanning the foreheads of people before they get on buses or trains. The people of Japan are happy about this, they are not worried at all. The warm weather that’s coming and the longer days will help fight this, but we can stop it or at least slow it down by putting up some barriers . Somebody take bold action.
8
@Lonnie - As for warmer weather and longer days, those are already here. Daffodils have been up for a few weeks and cherry trees are in bloom. Even the first tulips are coming up and the days are VERY quickly getting longer around here. And it seems like every March, I get my first sunburn when we will get 2 or 3 freak days near 80 degrees before it goes back to another month of rain in April (although warmer). And, in less than two weeks, the clocks switch again. Just the sight of the sun is like Xanax around here and has a positive effect on health.
I was just thinking the other night that its time to adjust all of the brakes on the bike and get ready for that season. Our flu season should have been on the backside to begin with so at least we aren't already in the beginning of that season on top of a new bug.
Why hasn’t the CDC put up a travel warning about Washington? You can’t fly to China, Iran, or Italy but you can still fly to Seattle for non essential reasons? No way, not me, not now.
13
I agree but don't recall ever having heard of it being done; probably violates some constitutional prohibition on interfering with interstate commerce.
1
@Brian Hanrahan - We don't need someone in Washington, D.C. to tell us something obvious about Washington. You are already doing the same thing. Besides, why on earth would you come to Seattle at this time of year unless it was essential? To collect a new species of moss for your container garden? We don't have a "Burning-man-in-the-rain" gathering or something. It has by and large rained everyday since Halloween around these parts. No one is taking a cruise to Seattle!
1
meanwhile Rand Paul wants to block $8 billion to support the novel coronavirus defense campaign until he knows how it will be paid for.
claw back half the trillion GOP gave away to corporations and the.01 percent.
20
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Rand Paul is like a broken record. I'm not surprised his neighbor had enough.
4
WHY is Pence announcing just announcements today that tests are going to be available across the country? Available? Now?!
I thought I wasn't tested for the virus a week ago with virus-like symptoms because the doctor didn't think it was necessary. Now, I realize she didn't even have a test to administer! Has Trump been sleeping??? Unbelievable.
16
@Mack Not sleeping, no. Golfing.
4
Just a thought:
Amazon announced that up to 1 million sites were closed down because of fraudulent claims about Covid-19, price gouging and more!
Unfortunately, this will do nothing about the price gouging consumers will face when they go to our country's hospitals!
4
So the administration is trying to kill the ACA while using it to score political points to try to claim that anybody can go get tested for COVID-19 now at no charge.
As if such a test can even be found. The WHO offered some but they said no.
As someone in the middle of an outbreak who tested negative for influenza A and B while presenting with COVID-19 symptoms including difficulty breathing, who was denied this very test, pardon me while I laugh derisively.
12
It is inevitable that significant social distancing measures will be needed in many places including NYC. The failure to adequately test, long incubation times, and possible asymptomatic transmission mean that the cat is out of the bag and there are likely many undiagnosed cases out there transmitting the disease at this moment. Why won't our elected officials come out and admit that yes, we will have to close public schools for two-three weeks? Yes, we might have to shut down the trains. Cutting flights to Italy and other half-hearted measures are about three weeks too late at this point.
18
This frantic avalanche of money is the consequence of the cuts to the CDC and other Federal agencies responsible for the health and safety of Americans.
Any savings by these short sighted cuts is dramatically offset by the expenses incurred to solve a preventable or manageable crisis.
But at least the wealthy got their tax cuts.
14
@Jackson maybe this helps? Numbers speak for themselves
https://www.cdc.gov/budget/documents/fy2020/cdc-overview-factsheet.pdf
2
@Jackson
The Trump administration's proposed 2021 budget includes cuts to the CDC's activities related to chronic disease.
in 2018 the Trump administration fired key officials connected to the U.S. pandemic response, and they were not replaced.
Also in 2018, news reports circulated about an 80% reduction in the CDC’s program that worked in various countries to fight epidemics. That was the result of the anticipated depletion of previously allotted funding. “Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda and Congo,” the Washington Post reported in 2018.
The fact that epidemic prevention-efforts were scaled back in China gained new significance in February 2020 as coronavirus spread globally after it was first detected in Wuhan, China, in late 2019.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-cut-cdc-budget/
3
@Jackson It is factually true that trump has proposed cuts to the CDC, but they have been rejected by Congress. It is also true that under the trump administration the WH coordination office for such pandemics has been eliminated. Cuz, you know, it was an Obama idea.
Alas, trump's July 4, 2019 claim that George Washington's troops "manned the air" and took over British airports during the Revolutionary War is also untrue.
MAGA, right Jackson?
All the governors should follow Governor Cuomo to waive the fee of testing and treatment of COVID-19. As far as I know, Medicare and Medicaid cover only the test of COVID-19 but not the treatment. If an elderly is tested positive, can s/he afford the treatment? If a person who is on Medicaid afford the treatment? Either is not likely to get tested, just because they might not afford the treatment. Let alone those who have NO health insurance. Without waving the fee for treatment, the government would leave a lot of people untreated or DIE, and would lose control of the spread of the virus. It is inhumane!
8
@Lee
There is not yet any specific treatment for covid-19. For mild and moderate cases, it is recommended that you stay home and rest. More severe cases, including those with pneumonia, hospitalization and oxygen may be necessary and the most severe cases may require a ventilator. There is no indication that insurers, Medicare and Medicaid would not reimburse for the hospitalization, oxygen or ventilation.
6
@Barbara What about those who have no health insurance?
6
In New York at least you're not supposed to have to pay for it. In New York City there is a network of public hospitals the mayor said anyone can go to for testing and/or care.
Had to do some research, but Andy Biggs and Ken Buck were the two representatives who voted against the bill. I hope the voters in their districts are paying attention
31
Thank you! That was my first question on reading this headline.
2
Italy has socialized medicine. The system is fraught with incompetence, apathy, inefficiency, and bureaucratic red tape. This is what the dems want for us?
7
@MiguelM As opposed to the beautifully streamlined and efficient system that we enjoy in America, where we count on insurance company representatives to make all the decisions rather than relying on those pesky eggheaded doctors?
49
MiguelM. I know nothing about Italy’s system, but having experienced universal health care in NZ and Australia, I know for a fact how bad we Americans have it. My family and I had excellent state of the art care, no outrageous bills, and no valuable time wasted arguing with for-profit insurers who try to deprive of coverage that you have paid for. Our system is broken, expensive, and provides too little at too great a cost for most Americans.
20
@MiguelM
If you're keeping up to date, you know that Italy -- and China, and South Korea, and the UK -- has handled this far, far better than the U.S. is doing. We are so far behind the curve it isn't funny. It is, in fact, deadly serious.
15
Coronavirus has mutated into a more aggressive strain, scientists find
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-has-an-aggressive-and-a-milder-strain-scientists-find-qfmfsl9jf
@Mary Elizabeth Lease You didn't read the article (behind a paywall) and the headline is wrong.
The L type was the aggressive strain that originated in China, and the mutation is into a milder S type.
70% of the cases are the aggressive L type, but it is alarmist to claim that the virus is becoming more aggressive.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/485972-the-novel-coronavirus-is-mutating-as-scientists
6
@James
I did read the article and it isn't behind a pay wall and I'll believe The London Telegraph's reporting every day of the week over anything the publisher of John Solomon's years of worth of lies from Ukraine on behalf of Rudy and their monarch.
1
@James
you have it exactly backwards as would be expected from someone using an article from The Hill.
"The researchers identified two strains, with the more aggressive accounting for 70 per cent of those they analysed and a less aggressive strain making up the rest.
"The less aggressive strain, identified as ‘S’ appeared to be the ancestor of the more aggressive one, ‘L’."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-has-an-aggressive-and-a-milder-strain-scientists-find-qfmfsl9jf
2
Why did the Trump administration not allow audio or video at the video conference about COVID-19 yesterday? This administration is a sham.
32
@KA - Too much face time for people other than Trump. He hates that!
3
A Princess cruise ship from San Francisco to Mexico
Had at least two passengers infected w the virus, one of whom has died.
11
Approximately 100 people have died from influenza in the United States TODAY.
7
@DP Were they all vaccinated?
5
@DP you don't understand the basics of this new illness
7
@DP - Sure it was influenza?
5
Please tell us about how the the covid19 virus underwent a mutation due to aggressive human intervention when the infection began in Wuhan. While the Trump administration fiddles, this nation is enveloped by a thick blanket of ignorance, arrogance and misinformation by those in charge. We now need to completely depend on newspapers to give us more up to date information. Please NYtimes, keep all of us informed in time. I am horrified by the dithering of state governments waiting for more deaths to decide whether or not to take action to limit movement. At least start by closing schools till we learn more.
11
The mutation was natural from an older less aggressive strain S to the more aggressive strain L. Due to L being more aggressive and causing more hospitalization versus non hospitalization for the milder strain S, the L strain was reduced earlier because hospitalization caused those patients to be taken out of social settings whereas the milder S strain was slower to be dealt with due to milder symptoms. I wonder if the milder S strain had been around before and it was until the L strain evolved in Wuhan that this was noticed.
14
Drive through test centers, brilliant.
11
I’m tempted to take a picture of the express subway train home at 5:00 p.m. Keep 6 feet away....HAHAHAHA!!!! I understand the recommendation is to go on off peak hours but how feasible is that for most?
My co-worker in the oh so en vogue open cubical office we have was clearly extremely sick but stated not to worry...”Its just allergies.” I’ve sat next to her for years and don’t recall allergies like that?!?
The employees at kinkos where I stopped to run copies were both clearly coughing and sneezing. The gentleman behind the counter was sweating on his brow.
The person in Westchester defined quarantine orders and went to an event at The Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth where as I understand he infected at least one other person if not more.
We.are.in.trouble. Communism is not looking all that bad right about now at least only in their ability to make people comply with recommendations. Here people do as the president does, which is whatever he wants without much thinking. It’s a terrible example and I fear we will see the consequences soon.
25
The Westchester man did not go to Tuck school event. That person was a hospital worker from New Hampshire.
3
Wait, so Obama is still dictating CDC test criteria? Obama ordered CDC to reinvent the wheel with the test kit instead of using the battle tested kit from China, Singapore, or South Korea?
11
@The People
Obama and his FDA decided that the FDA should regulate the development and manufacture of tests. The FDA granted an emergency waiver to the CDC to manufacture its test without going through the lengthy FDA testing procedures. It is FDA regulations that prevent us from importing the South Korean tests. On Saturday, the FDA waived most of its regulations on private labs and public health and university labs so that they can develop and produce their own tests. Perhaps the FDA will also allow importing proven tests from other countries like South Korea.
1
@The People
No. Just another Trump lie.
“On 11/18/16 the FDA announced that it would not finalize the draft guidance entitled Framework for Regulatory Oversight of Laboratory Developed Tests(Draft Guidance) prior to the end of the Obama administration...
FDA issued the Draft Guidance on 10/3/14... The Draft Guidance outlined a phased-in approach for both premarket review and postmarket requirements, including registration and listing, medical device reporting, and Quality System Regulation requirements. Section 1143 of the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act...
Had the Obama administration intended to move forward with a final guidance before the end of the administration, the notification required by FDASIA would had to have been issued by November 19, 2016. At the same time, lawmakers had threatened to use the Congressional Review Act to block FDA from finalizing guidance documents imposing the FDCA on LDTs. On Friday, an FDA spokesperson confirmed that the Agency would not finalize the Draft Guidance during the Obama administration: “The FDA believes that patients and health care providers need accurate, reliable, and clinically valid tests to make good health care decisions — inaccurate or false test results can harm individual patients. We ...realize just how important it is that we continue to work with stakeholders, our new Administration, and Congress to get our approach right...”
1
Wow! So it's March 4th, and the greatest country on earth has finally started testing. Labs in Germany and in most other civilized countires had been ready since mid-/late January.
The US government and health care system hard at work, but nothing to show for it. And yet Americans swear it's the greatest country. The sheer ignorance!!!
39
S Korea government is giving allowances for people who are in self quarantine, free testing and free care.
Is 8b enough to cover the costs? Anyone?
11
Yikes, another of these pictures. Where is the PPE that care providers use in every other country dealing with this crisis?
8
This is a bit of a media circus. Every hour there's a new update about first death reported in X state, etc. It's sensationalist at a time when people need perspective.
1
I'm starting to wonder why everyone at the CDC doesn't just quit and participate in an informal cooperation between the states. At this point, it seems clear the states are on their own.
Time for a shadow CDC?
16
About 4 in 100 die from this disease; 15 in 100 need medical support of some kind. With a hobble Federal government, we are all at great risk. We may have the greatest medical community in the world, but if they cannot diagnose patients who cannot afford to go to an emergency room, or to test patients when no testing system exists. The Trump administration has hidden our response and our experts behind locked doors. This country of all that have an outbreak is in the middle of the worst possible response. It's the vacuum at the top.
11
I would like to know how ‘elderly’ the patient who died in California was, and what were his/her ‘underlying health conditions.’
The person was well enough to take a cruise from San Francisco to Mexico.
My deepest condolences to the family.
39
Yes, I often wonder if they just assume anyone over a certain age has "an underlying medical condition," or if maybe old age itself is considered a medical condition. Here in NYC when a motorist runs over someone in a crosswalk you can be sure news outlets will describe the victim as "elderly" if over about 50, as if it were to be expected elderly people go wandering around in crosswalks and are just asking to be run over. I imagine this description originates with cops, who are disinclined to investigate any such incidents, much less those involving the "elderly."
9
How useful is a 3m respirator? I’m talking about the type you buy at the hardware store to filter contaminants. I already have the 3m 6202 model with NIOSH classification P100. Apparently it stops asbestos, chemicals, dust, solvents and fumes, maybe it can stop Coronavirus???
@Deborah It's WAY better then a N95 mask, usually those are half or full face respirators, it filters better and has activated charcoal to filter the chemicals.
1
The measure taken by the previous administration were and are elastic. Meant to ensure that testing is safe and reliable.
And, that materials used and the people using them are trustworthy.
Now Mr Trump sows seeds of distrust due to his own inadequacies. Not only is Mr Trumps shortsightedness causing problems. His browbeating bullying tweets have cast a pall of fear over government agencies.
Mr Trump has thrown open the gate for virtually anyone to administer Covid-19 test.
What will this rash act by Mr Trump cost us?
5
It's a false statistical peace in Oregon. Governor Brown has asked for testing kits and other equipment from Trump but where are they?? We can't test so we can't know. Send us the testing kits.
This means people who have the virus are in Oregon society transmitting it (most of them). At least our OEM is functioning, and it functions very well, thank goodness.
Countries that are testing have higher numbers and by seeing those numbers they invoke quarantine and other measures to slow the spread. Got God's sake, Pence, get with it.
11
Maybe, like Hawaii, Oregon should look into buying them from Japan.
3
5% need ICU, 10-12% need a hospital bed with and oxygen supply, and the remaining 83-85% will have mild symptoms and not need any support.
5% of 100 is 5
5% of 100 000 is 5000
5% of 1 000 000 is 50 000
The state on Oregon has at most around 300 ICU beds. Washington may have around 500. California has roughly 7000. Most of these are occupied by patients with a variety of other problems, and ICU bed usage routinely hovers in the 95-100% range.
Thus, for any hope of keeping the majority of the unlucky 5% alive with ICU support, containment is absolutely vital... wash your hands, cover your mouths when coughing, and avoid touching your face... slow the virus.
28
@Rob and they built hospitals quickly in China to handle those with the virus. Will we do that? I am very concerned.
3
@Jace
Unfortunately the US is short around 2500-4000 ICU doctors, and ventilator trained ICU nurses are even more scarce. They could build it, but who would staff it?
“We’re focused on adopting all measures to contain or slow down the virus, because we have a health-care system that, however good and efficient it may be, risks being overloaded,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said. ( Italy closing ALL schools)
Why are we waiting until our health care system is also overloaded before we implement a nationwide, systemic plan to prevent further spread of the virus?
16
Wait, wasn't the mighty CDC, of the mightiest country in the world, going to put 1 million Coronavirus tests (the best in the world) by TODAY? Oops, now it's only 15,000? Oh well, not so mighty. Coronavirus = Katrina 2.0 Maybe we should ask the Chinese to help us? They seemed to have a better organized response. Wow, the US is going to allocate a whole $8 billion to fight Coronavirus? How does that stack up to the $4 Trillion for the wars?
13
Trump logic: $45 B to build a wall while cutting pandemic expert team which cost $609 M. That’s incompetency and dereliction of duty to protect Americans.
27
@Bob
Indeed.
First misfortune came to central American kids separated from their families on the border. Caged by Trump and Miller
Then misfortune came to the Kurds who died n their thousands fighting ISIS and were then abandoned by Trump
Then misfortune, in the form of the COVID19 virus, came to average Americans... and nobody was there to defend them from the virus. Certainly not Trump who said there would be zero cases by now
Almost no testing
No strategy to supply enough medicine.
No strategy for self isolation
No informarion from people qualified; only a president who refuses to believe that a vaccination will not be ready for 12-18 months
2
In the Wall Street Journal this morning, there is a report that the grandfather of the New York patient's children took them out to dinner Sunday night in spite of them being under house quarantine. One of the children had a cough which makes it more questionable, as the grandfather is a retired doctor.
16
S Korea government is giving allowances for people who are in self quarantine, free testing and free care. Will 8 billion $ enough to cover the costs?
3
There should be state mandates to allow people the ability to temporarily postpone jury duty easily and without a doctor's note, and without consequence, if they do not feel comfortable serving during this time.
10
Can people get tested after they have just recovered from what they thought was a bad cold? (Ah, it might seem laughable, considering there are not that many tests available, but in an ideal situation with available tests.) I read that the incubation period for COVID19 is one to fourteen days, so one would think you could test people after the fact.
There could be many who've recently recovered from something like a cold or flu that with testing could be included in the numbers of COVID19 cases to better gauge the percentage of people who die. Of course, knowing that the elderly and immunocompromised are the most vulnerable.
I guess we rely on other countries' data where they are testing more efficiently.
5
I’ve been saying for two weeks that we have more cases in Seattle that we know of. We need to ramp up testing so that we have more useful numbers. How many recent bad colds have really been this virus? What’s the rate of in infection among health workers? What’s the rate in a sample of 1000 random people?
11
Eight billion dollars? Please I hope that spending is being tracked so that it’s used responsibly and not just a giveaway to big corporations.
7
@Chris McClure
yup...time to claw back some the trillion dollars given away by Republicans to corporations and the .01 percent.
11
A bipartisan Congress approved funding for combating COVID-19 but will the White House actually spend it? One hopes the spending will be more organized than the press conferences addressing the issue.
The CDC is being criticized without acknowledging the degree to which its budget has been cut, and state health departments have faced the same cuts in far too many states. The CDC and state health departments are the army we need now and for future outbreaks. Let’s fund the effort.
8
Trump will ask for a quid pro quo: Votr for me and I'll let you live.
9
DG
I gagged when I heard don the con say that. I am not totally familiar with whatever regulation trump is blaming Obama for, but I know this. Obama was smart. He listened to his experts in the CDC, NIH and DHS. And he had real experts, not “yes men” in charge of those organizations. And Obama had an intact functioning Pandemic Disease division in those organizations. Trump cut them out because he is just dumb and anti-science.
Time magazine 2017
https://time.com/5177802/cdc-budget-cuts-infectious-disease/?amp=true
The article says:
"Among people who catch seasonal flus, about 0.1 to 0.2 percent die from the illness,..." and
“Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-19 cases have died,”
You do realize those are two very different numbers and should not be compared? The first is the percentage of people who catch the flu while the second is the percentage of reported cases. The number of reported cases is often quite less than the actual number who have caught it. Our CDC estimates the actual cases of flu from the confirmed number using a model.
When a model for estimating actual cases of Covid-19 from the confirmed number, a proper mortality can be calculated for it and compared to flu mortality.
The fact that the press continues to throw these numbers out as if they represent the same thing is irresponsible, in my view.
11
@Scott Werden Agreed.
We have absolutely no sense of the denominator, which, surprise, surprise, requires actual testing.
6
But tell me the model’s assumptions. That’s key. There are people reading this who do not understand the centrality of a model’s assumptions. With different assumptions, the “results” will
differ, sometimes quite substantially. Do you have a low, mid, and high?
2
@Pjs
I don't know how the CDC model works. My main point is that readers glaze over the details and focus on the numbers but the numbers' meaning is tied to the details. People walk away with the wrong conclusion and the press is adding to this problem. Even the CDC seems reluctant to talk about a mortality rate. Go to their web site and try to find it - it is rarely mentioned there. They seem to recognize it has the potential for misuse.
1
Containment is no longer a strategy.
While epidemiologists devote hundreds of person-hours to contact tracing the select few people that have been tested, the hundreds to thousands of people that have not been tested yet carry the virus continue to roam freely, getting on flights, going to concerts, and taking the subway.
The fact of that matter is that it is STILL far too difficult for even symptomatic people to get tested, let alone tested with a decent TAT.
Good luck with that. Buckle in.
17
I would be curious to know if anyone has found definitive info on reinfection of those thought to have "recovered".
More specifically if there has been anything reported on the possibility the virus is mutating into another variant of the coronavirus.
12
Mary, it was reported in Washington that the virus does change or mutate from person to person. They were able to determine the connection between two cases and how long had passed in between based on the similar sequence but also mutations that had arisen. It’s unclear that these mutations are changing the illness, however.
4
@Mary Elizabeth Lease, the evidence for small variants (i.e. slight mutations) has been reported https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/health/coronavirus-washington-spread.html and this was not unexpected. However, mutations do not automatically lead to increased virulence.
Cases of reinfection have been suggested but could result from imperfect tests (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html and https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124).
It is simply too early to tell. I find the website https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/ useful for perspective on this type of question.
2
@Mary Elizabeth Lease see https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463 regarding mutation into a more lethal strain.
2
So Trump is back to blaming Obama for the delay in testing, saying he was prevented from testing by prior regulations. If so, why did he wait to side-step those regulations like he does for anything he wants. So now Pence proudly announces that the tests will be available for "all Americans" (once they finally catch up from the debacle of not testing or sharing information from CDC). What does that mean? My friend is Japanese and has had a green card for 10 years and contributes to society and pays a lot of taxes but has not become a citizen because Japan does not allow dual citizenship. Is she prevented from getting tested? What about all the other folks with green cards, the "illegal" immigrants whom we welcomed before Trump. Does Trump think he can let these people spread the virus amongst themselves and all good citizens will be safe?
35
@AJR Over three years in office and he still won't take any responsibility for any problems that happen on his watch. This is the man who told us a few days back that we'd be down to zero cases by now. He has no grasp whatsoever of the situation at hand.
12
@AJR - The fickle finger of fate points not at Obama, but right back at Trump. The rules as to who could be tested were irrelevant, since there was virtually zero testing capacity anyway until this week. And it's still way too little, way too late. Hey guys, this story was out there in December. Where were you Trump, Pence? Everyone knew an outbreak was coming and you did nothing to prepare for it. The China travel ban didn't even kick in till the afternoon of Super Bowl Sunday. By then every infected person who had plans to go to Miami was already there! Complete, total dereliction of duty. You should be ashamed of yourselves!
7
@AJR Trump always blames someone else. Never accepts responsibility.
7
Pence is reportedly going to meet Inslee in Olympia Thursday.
Would be great if a contingent of health care workers dealing with the outbreak were their to greet the man in charge of securing our nation's survival in the face of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
Olympia is just over two hour round trip by car and I'd bet a helicopter could be arranged.
Would be curious to see if Pence would heed his Surgeon General's directive on N-95s.
15
@Mary Elizabeth Lease - Pence is endangering himself. He should not go to the outbreak area. He should send Trump instead.
23
@Mary Elizabeth Lease He needs to visit the nursing home to explain to residents and staff the administration's plan to address their situation.
7
Julie W.
So not gonna happen.
1
Are Trump and Pence blocking updates of the CDC virus numbers? This would be politicizing the medical and scientific infrastructure, and putting us all at risk.
Senate GOP blocks coronavirus bill that limits what drug companies can charge for future coronavirus vaccines. Profit is more important than lives of citizens!
On the other hand, I've seen social media posts that say Seattle is a ghost town, which are blatantly false and have the earmarks of Russian propaganda. Be careful whose blogs and twitterfeeds you believe.
19
@Will Hogan
do you really need to ask?
3
@Will Hogan - Workers at the Pike Place Market say that popular tourist attraction is a "ghost town" and pictures were shown to confirm it.
When I went to the food bank yesterday, they required everyone entering to wash their hands and it was not very crowded. It was the 3rd of the month and almost closing time which would be the least busiest time of the month so I read little into the crowd size.
I went to a large grocery today to get a money order and a couple of items. There was no line at the service counter but it was early on a school day and again, I can't read much into that. And I actually got a seat on a Seattle bus but again, that sometimes happens.
We had record rainfall this year and were already staying indoors like every winter. I have not heard or seen the next door neighbors since Christmas. And they have kids! The person below me? I have lived here for years and still have never seen them. :))
NZ has it's third case. The husband of the woman who returned from Northern Italy.
11
Why don’t we get the tests that Europeans are getting instead of waiting to produce our own?.. do we somehow think we can do better? It is no wonder numbers in US are underreported when we don’t yet have an adequate supply of tests.
32
The Trump Administrated rejected an offer from the World Health Organization to use the German tests they standardized and are distributing globally; it takes the notion of ‘America First’ to a whole new level of embarrassing.
8
The first German labs had their (working) test kits ready mid-January (TIB Molbiol in Berlin, for example). Those were shipped to HKG, other countries followed. The German manufacturers list price for the kits, by the way, breaks down to EUR 2.50 per tested person. Keep that in mind when you receive a bill over 3000 dollars for your test here in the US, the greatest country on earth, no less...
10
@Paola Sensi, the WHO (World Health Organization) is providing tests and everybody is using their tests except the USA because, yes, we think we can do it ourselves.
3
I'm afraid of 2 things with this: 1) my parents and other elderly, 2) the media coverage if I actually got sick and tested positive. The thought of having news vans and my picture posted all over the news as "infected" doesn't exactly make me want to know the answer and just self-quarantine, if I ever get sick hopefully I don't.
15
@Not 99pct
I understand your fears....I worry about my sister, a RN in New York capital district.....
She has asthma, and is in her 60's.
She says they are not adequately prepared either.
5
@Not 99pct - I have not seen a single picture of any infected person in this area not even a name. The media is too busy trying to get a picture of the latest hat that Meghan Markle is wearing at any given moment.
@Ignatz If your sister is close to retirement, can she just get out? This isn't worth your life, it seems your sister falls into the high risk category.
I see the photo with the article and I cringe. Those are N95 masks, which are in short supply. And the two workers using them are using them incorrectly. The masks don't work when there is facial hair, as shown in the photo. The mask is supposed to form a tight seal around the nose and mouth. That's impossible with the facial hair. The straps are not supposed to cross. If they have to cross, the mask isn't fitted correctly. N95s have to be carefully fitted and fit tested. And out of doors there is actually very little threat, unless someone is coughing directly into one's face. This is a waste of a precious commodity. At least have these people use the masks correctly! This is infuriating.
37
@BA some doctors are recommending masks to help
Individuals from touching their faces.
Patrick
That may be a waste of a precious resource right now.
2
The Chinese have announced that it appears that there are two strains of Covid 2019 circulating. One considerably more lethal than the other. Interestingly, the more lethal strain is descended from the less lethal strain. See https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463
8
In the announcement of the California fatality, Placer County Health Officer Dr. Aimee Sisson said:
“While most cases of COVID-19 exhibit mild or moderate symptoms, this tragic death underscores the urgent need for us to take extra steps to protect residents who are particularly vulnerable to developing more serious illness, including elderly persons and those with underlying health conditions.”
Exactly right Dr. Sisson. Trump and Pence should be shouting this from the mountaintops, and nursing homes and elder care facilities need help--meaning supplies, staff, and money!
10
@tanstaafl
Unfortunately, all hospitals are gearing up for this. So, staff and supplies are not available due to shortages. When this happens, money can't fix the problem.
2
This virus is concerning but remember the best defense is a healthy lifestyle and washing your hands!
5
We have been repeatedly warned by doctors, scientists, News Media, Hollywood and Sci-Fi writers!
1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
Swine Flu
SARS
MERVS
Ebola
H1N1 Avian Flu (which has never gone away!)
The problem is that people have heard doomsday warnings so often that they stopped listening. People won't even look in the mirror and take personal responsibility - instead, they want to blame elected leaders (as if our leaders could have actually done anything of substance that would satisfy everybody!)
Are we ready for a really serious Pandemic? Nope!
Meteor strike? Nope!
Is California or the West Coast ready for a massive earthquake? Nope!
Think a new Administration would do any better? Nope!
Think that manufactures will rush out a vaccine in 6 months, 12 months, 18 months or 24 months? Nope!
If a vaccine is discovered, the manufacturers will stockpile the vaccine and refuse to release it until they are 100% indemnified - and most of the vaccines will be made in China, India or Europe - so new leadership will not change that fact!
Since it is the secondary infections that kill and not the virus... how many people are up to date on the CDC's recommended vaccines? Few are!
The sad reality is that a lot of people against vaccines have no sense of personal or social responsibility - this also explains why people were outraged and complained about being quarantined or dis-invited to social events!
People also forget that during a pandemic - life will go on!
8
I have no idea what the LA and NY Corona cases means for travelers from the midwest passing through LAX and JFK airports. I suspect it means the panic and fear is spreading across the USA. Preparing and protecting is fine and I am not afraid or terrorized by this "so called emergency". Throwing billions at this problems inefficiently will do diddly squat. Deceptive hype and news about the spread by those who do not understand the nano sized viruses is just useless fearmongering.
Iran has contributed to the higher fatality rate. Fatality rate of COVID-19 is NOT higher than the fatality rate of each and every pandemic flu that killed many 1000s in the past 100+ years (see the link below for accurate statistics). Stop the fear mongering with deceptive headlines. Yes seasonal flu lately has a less fatality rate than the COVID-19 but that is because sensible responsible people get the vaccine against seasonal flu, especially the seniors. Recent fatality rate for COVID-19 has gone up due to its spread in senior nursing homes and Iran. IRAN gone mad was busy enriching URANIUM instead of developing their health care infrastructure and preparedness for Corona, like China did in its fight against Corona, with a fatality of 2%.
Panic and fear mongering about Corona virus remains unjustified except for those who want to politicize it.
https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2020-01/5e32faee24306a25ce0db2ca-1200.png?fbclid=IwAR36zdocTtJcRkAOzVWIBjStfSCV5EaM9-myneJDcycdcKA765xOfn58wv8
1
@Girish Kotwal
Why did you not mention Trump lying that there were only16 cases, patting himself on the back that he has done a great job and predicting the cases would go to zero very soon. Its a shambles yet in all of your lengthy dissertations you have not mentioned his gross negligence and flagrantly delusional statements?
2
At least twice today, at both of his briefings, NY Gov Cuomo said, I think perhaps trying to put things in perspective, something to the effect that "we already have 12,000 people in the hospital with (regular) flu." Anyone know what "we" referred to? NY City, NY State, the whole US?
Hey NYT: What's up with the community spread cases in Solono and Santa Clara county that were reported last week?
1. Are there any new cases connected to those people?
2. Have their close connections even been tested? (friends, family, co-workers ...etc)
3. Do epidemiologists have estimates for how many cases are likely to be in the surrounding area?
I'm guessing it's more than zero, which is what you and other outlets have reported.
Which of these is most likey?
- widespread journalistic "oops I forgot to check"
- government withholding information
- outright coordinated suppression of information
- virus magically behaves differently in high tech areas that have disproportionate impact on markets
7
@Randy I have been thinking the same thing. Not an expected flow of information and follow up on known events. The lack of spread to areas suggests not that there isn't any spread, but a lack of documentation of that spread. The news is allowing authorities to get away with this poor job of surveillance of an outbreak. Seattle just reported they don't have enough tests. Pence stated there are plenty. Which is it? If we actually have tests why is there not active reporting and follow up of results?
6
@jeansch lack of test kits.
2
So tell me again how we're better than China?
"White House Bans Filming At Coronavirus Briefing, Triggering Backlash"
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-white-house-audio-visual-coronavirus-briefing_n_5e5f5febc5b63aaf8f5f5665
31
Networthy
Not yet.
3
@networthy
the Trump just bans journalists from recording his administrations musings in the West Wing's press briefing room.
4
Hey NYT: What's up with the community spread cases in Solono and Santa Clara county that were reported last week?
1. Are there any new cases connected to those people?
2. Have their close connections even been tested? (friends, family, co-workers ...etc)
3. Do epidemiologists have estimates for how many cases are likely to be in the surrounding area?
I'm guessing it's more than zero.
Is this a case of widespread journalistic "oops I forgot to check"?
3
White House bars press from filming or recording coronavirus briefing.
https://www.alternet.org/2020/03/absolutely-outrageous-white-house-bars-press-from-filming-or-recording-coronavirus-briefing/
Hopefully parr of the news is, there are thousands of test kits per state?
10
Sick workers work sick. Sick employees cannot afford to lose their jobs. Need Coronavirus moratorium on termination for sick time.
17
There is still no testing available here in Seattle short of being admitted with breathing difficulties. Six days of high fever and cough and my doctor still gives me a number to call about testing that automatically disconnects.
Last weekend I flew to a large party in the Bay Area. My husband has the same crud and he’s sharing a ski condo with six other guys in Montana. Without testing we can’t tell anyone How careful they should be. Its just gray probabilities and maybes. Contact tracing will be useless by the time we get any results. Too late.
46
I can't help wonder if it ever occurred to you and your husband to just stay home. That might help you improve and would certainly keep you away from others. It doesn't sound like you are minimum wage workers going to work every day for fear of losing your job. DO
you have jobs? How does your employer/manager react to your state of health (or lack of it)?
32
@Jane:
This is criminal. There's no other word for it. I'm an epidemiologist, and my colleagues and I have been yelling for weeks about this. The U.S. is totally unprepared.
The fact that this, the richest and most powerful country on earth, didn't have a plan is inexcusable. We're now playing catch-up, and we can't. We can't catch up. Meanwhile, people are getting sick, spreading this virus, and can't get treated.
It's outrageous.
74
My son and I both had liver transplants in 2014- we take immunosuppressants. I can’t get any information about our increased risk or testing or anything other than wash your hands.
14
Genuinely curious about the masks though. They say don’t wear it unless you’re infected but everywhere else is wearing it. Italians are wearing it and the medical officials in DC in this picture are wearing them. How are masks not preventative? If it’s the lack of products, I understand... but if it’s only to propagate and diminish panic, I’d say public health is far more important.
31
@Naomi Koo I would liken masks to a light-duty bullet proof vest. It can be argued that citizen Joe doesn't need one because the chances of getting shot at are quite low, and if he does get shot at, the light duty vest may not be adequate (beyond the vest being light duty, there is also presumably more risk of user error and failure to take other precautions). So, if there is an overall shortage, it would be better for Joe to go without so that law enforcement doesn't have to. However, if Joe does get shot, his chances are somewhat better with the vest on.
You might also consider looking at the CDC's own guidelines about H1N1. I believe they recommend masks if you are high risk and unable to avoid crowds when there is infection in your community. This applies to a lot of folks using the NYC subway system. I easily counted 9 people within a 6 foot perimeter of me this AM. I am almost 56 and have mild asthma. I did wear a mask....
12
@Naomi Koo:
As the CDC and other public health experts have indicated, those flimsy surgical masks provide a false sense of security. Yes, you should wear one if you're sick. And even then, it's good only for 4 hours; then you're supposed to change it.
The N95 respirator masks are for healthcare professionals. They need them. Ordinary people shouldn't be snapping them up because that will only prevent physicians and nurses from getting them. (They're all sold out anyway, which is just as well, or John & Jane Q. Citizen would be hoarding them.)
5
@Lisa Simeone
what you suggest about the use of N-95s is true if the virus is not spread through aerosolization which to date I've not seen any reporting that rules that out.
1
The thing is this: Currently the only method of keeping the virus at bay is to quarantine people. I visited my doctor yesterday (Germany) and she told me that cases, all cases, where the virus has been discovered but not necessary causing sickness to the patient means mandatory quarantine for that patient and potentially his/her whole family and friends too, etc. Everyone close by or having had contact with said patient needs to be tested in that case and that requirement could be the tipping point so to speak; it could trigger massive shortages of all daily-need items, not just masks!
I see it here in the German grocery stores: Rice and noodles from Asia including coconut milk are basically gone from the shelves, noodles and other products from Italy are gone too because Italy clamped down on transport.
If it would get worse and that’s a big if, very simple daily-need items could be hard to get. There certainly is no reason to panic, but prudence would dictate adding a few more items to the shipping cart, because when was the last time in your life that there was a shortage of anything in the western world? I’m 54 and there hasn’t been one single day in my life that I had to miss even one meal or miss toilet paper. Not one!
You get the idea.
42
Let's look and learn from what's working in Wuhan since the number of infections is declining. To start, it seems to be time that we're tested at home if we become ill and not travel to the doctor/hospital/testing center.
30
@Cupcake In New York yes, test at home. Elsewhere in the car.
2
We're way behind on this. Although I believe the confirmed cases are just the tip of the iceberg-- even considering the student at Yeshiva University, or at the Jewish high school, all students from those schools should now be under a 14-day quarantine. With the schools closed and students already possibly exposed, unless every student, teacher and administrator is quarantined it could continue its spread. And those are just two vector points.
18
@Emily
and lock down hot spots...the greatest lesson out of Wuhan.
4
First, Medicare for All will not solve the current crisis. If anything, because health care facilities would be overburdened with patients suffering from other conditions, the situation would be even worse. What we may need in the future are public health hospitals that can accept patients in large numbers who need to be isolated and treated. We did have one in Seattle on a hill overlooking the city; the building remains and recently served as headquarters to Amazon before the company built out a campus downtown. With the coronavirus the United States has received a big health scare. Now is the time to allocate resources to the public health sector, which has, for too long, been a poor cousin to the acute care system.
9
@Moso Medicare for all would encourage more people to be tested instead of being anonymous spreaders.
5
I'd like to be simultanesously informed about the number of FLU cases as well as the number of Coronavirus cases. Simultaneous reporting would allow me to compare the advance of a "new" virus (that we do not yet have a vaccine for) to the FLU (an "old" or known virus) which we do have a vaccine for. This would promote "weighing the degree of alarm" that should or shoudn't be associated with Coronavirus cases. Example: Imagien there have been 135 instances of coronovirus in the US and 30,135 cases of the Flu. Just saying it would lend more meaning to the reports.
12
@DED There have been close to 40 million cases of flu this year in the US alone. Over 30,000 deaths so far.
3
Unfortunately, many people with flu do not report.
That could very well be the case here; the healthiest with the virus will have very few symptoms and thus not report.
We do not have a good handle on the numerator.
2
@Jonny Walker
and 35,000 will die again this year in traffic accidents...so your point is?
3
My brother-in-law watches only Fox News and a die-hard Trump supporter. He is also n 85-year-old dialysis patient. He lives very close to LA county. When my sister asked him to wear a face mask when he goes to the dialysis center, his reply is "the government says that a healthy person does not have to wear a mask!" He got annoyed when my sister asked him to wash his hands after he returned home. He said that the risk of community spread is low. This is how the Trump administration and Fox News put people's lives at risk! My sister is 73 and in the high risk group. I worry sick that she might get infected.
124
„Trump“ said that a healhy person doesn‘t have to wear a mask, but he didn‘t say that a 85 year old dialysis patient is a healthy person.
14
@Lee
In literature that would be called "poetic justice."
9
But the CDC *DOES* say to not wear a mask unless you're sick, it's right there at the front page for COVID-19 prevention information. Might be time to stop trying to scapegoat life's problems on normal people.
1
NY = state of New York; LA = not Louisiana, but Los Angeles? Y'all may want to consider using CA for consistency and clarity's sake.
13
The genome of the first case to be identified in Washington state is identical to the virus identified in Fujian, China on January 21. The virus appears to have been present in the Seattle community and undetected in the US since that time. The US is, today, basically where Wuhan was in early January. By June, there will likely be >100k confirmed cases and 3k or more deaths in the US. What this will do to the US healthcare system, let alone the political stability of the country is anyone's guess.
52
@Keep Calm Considering there have already been 30,000 deaths from flu and 40 million cases in the US this year, that is a drop in the bucket.
3
@Jonny Walker
Just saying that it is probably already spreading through most major cities in this country, and we are only just now recognizing it. You are comparing apples and oranges and coming to a remarkable conclusion. Seasonal flu is easily diagnosed, and there is a fairly effective vaccine to prevent it, as well as anti-virals and pharmaceuticals to mitigate its effects. 30k deaths/40M cases is in spite of an effective vaccine and treatment. At this time, most cities/clinics do not have the ability to make a clinical diagnosis of SARS CoV-2. The only treatment for SARS is supportive care. SARS CoV-2 doesn't spread as rapidly as the flu, but has a mortality much higher than the flu. The data from China CDC shows that the case fatality rate takes big jumps for each decade over 40 years of age.
I intended my initial comment to provoke consideration that those elected leaders who have failed to promote the general welfare may be inclined to take extreme measures to ensure domestic tranquility. Postpone the election?
4
@Jonny Walker
You keep saying this year, but you mean this season. China had 70k+ infected in two months. And that just counts people who were actually tested and with the government taking draconian quarantine measures.
We can't seem to do either in America.
2
CDC cuts by the Trump administration appear to be partially responsible for the very poor initial performance of the CDC. The test kit fiasco and delay of new test kits. The virus is spreading but not well documented in America. The rest of the world is robustly testing. The spread of virus within the community is what surveillance is. Our government response appeared chaotic and unprepared. Strict guidelines limited testing because of a limited supply of tests. A woman in Vacaville walked into the hospital sick, later intubated and sent to UC Davis Medical Center. Doctors had to argue for her to be tested for Covid 19. The test was not performed for 8 days and confirmation took another 4 days! In a fast spreading outbreak the government appeared to be taking it's cues from an illiterate science denier our President who at his dismal and incoherent press conference proposed non science based information. Trump rambled on minimizing the seriousness and likelihood of spread of the virus. He claimed Flu is more serious. He appeared to not comprehend the basics of percentages and mortality rates. Contradicting his own team of public health officials he promised treatments and vaccines that are not available. His was a political attempt to calm the stock market to save himself first before the safety and education of the public.
34
@jeansch
South Korea and the UK have drive-through testing. Drive-through! Takes only 10 minutes, person doesn't have to get out of car, thus not infecting others in crowded waiting rooms.
And what do we have? Faulty tests and now new ones that supposedly work but not nearly enough of them.
And not even a national or local hotline to call for info. What are we supposed to do if we feel sick? My primary care doc is superb, but she’s going to be overwhelmed. Her practice is mostly old people as it is. At age 62, I'm considered young. If her office is even open, how is she going to field all these calls?? ERs will likewise be overwhelmed. What exactly are we supposed to do? Other countries have national or local hotlines.
15
@Lisa Simeone
what you describe is Conservative ideology made manifest on the ground for all to see.
Vote Nov. 3rd.
5
Sure wish Oakland, CA and its mayor, Ms. Schaff, would step up and spend less time oo-ing and ah-ing over a Buttercup-visiting Biden, and more time creating and activating an effective, detailed, and robust plan to protect Oaklanders and visitors from Coronavirus and its various impacts.
Oakland’s close, and smaller, next-door neighbor, Berkeley, has, via its public health department, reported a case of the virus and declared a local state of emergency. Meanwhile, Oakland, the largest city in Alameda county, home to several hospitals, and the county seat, doesn’t even have a department of public health nor anything meaningful on its website regarding a comprehensive plan.
9
the CDC is currently reporting 80 total cases.
the NYT is currently reporting 130 cases.
will someone please give Mike Pence a complimentary subscription the NYT.
only the best people.
102
@Mary Elizabeth Lease - The CDC has been muzzled. Forget about getting real numbers from them. We now need to depend on our state and local health departments for information on what's really happening and helpful reports here from real people who are out there trying to get tests or supplies.
28
Chinese Researchers Say Coronavirus Has Mutated Into More Aggressive Strain
by Jake Thomas
March 4, 2020, 1:35pm
https://mavenroundtable.io/theintellectualist/news/chinese-researchers-say-coronavirus-has-mutated-into-more-aggressive-strain-rlsY7Ugj9kOg427jy3a71A
11
@Lisa Simeone
The Intellectualist - mixed reliability according to this site:
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-intellectualist/
2
@stevene
I checked The Intellectualist and actually clicked on the links. They are legit. One of them is to the Times of London, a conservative newspaper, by the way.
I've also read the preliminary medical report about the mutation of this novel coronavirus. Again, legit.
You, stevene, are linking to a rabidly rightwing political site, not a reputable scientific source. Big difference.
3
@stevene
Forbes, Fortune, CNBC, and The Times of London (the latter linked in my original post) are also all reporting it.
2
At Publix today buying groceries. While waiting in line, I saw the cashier cough once open-mouthed, then cough again into her hand. Then she handled everyone’s groceries. I was trapped.
When I got home, I called the store manager and, nicely, without identifying the cashier, told him what happened. Also recommended Publix needs to communicate safer hygiene to employees, according to CDC business guidelines. Besides, it’s never been acceptable to cough like that. Yuck.
Where’s the common sense?
461
That is nothing compared to what I have seen at Morton Williams supermarket in east midtown Manhattan -- cashier taking her bare hand to wipe away snot dripping out of her nose, THEN putting hand in till to get me my change.
17
@berman Perhaps, nextn5ime, let management know-- or let the know after the fact why you're shopping elsewhere
10
@berman face mask for the cashier.
9
We need to have Upjohn run a regression model against the factors 1) that we have control over, and 2) that we do not have control over. Then calculate mortality rates for each category, and many other factors as identified in each category. Publishing the outcomes of the model will go a long ways toward getting as handle on best practices for all of us. Just be sure to adjust for locations with very large populations as they tend to skew outcomes. We need science to handle this properly, not dim witted Vice Presidents and reality show actors like Trump and his administration. Just consider, that Mnuchin has his smarmy hands on the money and the budgets that go into tackling COVID-19.
11
It is clear more and more that the cases found in Italy are more numerous than in other countries since it was tested there much earlier than other countries because of a suspicious case in Northern Italy of a relatively young man.
In Europe and US now we have evidence that the virus is spreading there since January at least, meaning that hundreds and probably thousands of cases are definetely going to be found if tested.
18
Well, at least it's comforting to know that key lawmakers in the House and Senate were able to come together and reach "a deal on Wednesday to provide $8.3 billion in emergency aid to combat the novel coronavirus".
Their joint action feels like the only positive to this entire scary scenario.
A sincere thank you to the men and women who voted to approve this bill. Finally - Americans putting ALL Americans ahead of everything else today.
24
@Marge Keller Schumer asked for $8.5 billion; got $8.3 billion. Trump asked for $2.5 billion and was going to steal funds from other health programs. A wise President would put Schumer in as the COVID Czar; not Pence; who shook hands with 44 cadets who may be infected
10
The global map which shows the extent of outbreak in different country’s of the world shows, with the exception of the continents wealthier nations, no activity. It’s important to note that the governments of these countries are often times weak, and often times have minimal capabilities to provide health care. Recent outbreaks of the Ebola virus in Africa prove this assertion. What is not being reported is the presence of an estimated 1 million Chinese citizens on the continent working in construction, mining, textiles, and other industries on the continent. Some of these Chinese would have headed home for the Lunar New Year. Some of those would have traveled to Wuhan, and returned to Africa. What’s become of them? Faced with limited health care options in Africa, what might they do? Travel to friends and relatives in the U.S.A. or Europe where modern medicine is readily available? To Iran? The President is not intellectually curious, and his choice for Coronavirus Czar rejects science. Are they paying attention? Do they care?
18
Los Angeles is about the worst place for this virus to take hold. It is a place of very low social capital, many disconnected communities, and a decided lack of city spirit. Don't forget that it about the only major city in the world that did not have a big celebration for the start of the new century and millennium. People commute big distances for work, there are big immigrant areas shot through with folk health beliefs, and lots of illegal migrants -- a million of them, in fact -- who do not want any contact with officialdom. Bottom line: trouble coming.
33
For folks who think this is a cakewalk and surely you'll just get a mild case, you should read this journal article in JAMA that examined 72,000 cases in China.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
Overall death rate: 2.3%
Age 70-79 death rate: 8%
Age 80+ death rate: 14.8%
My parents are in their 80s. I have asked them to stay home more and congregate less.
28
@tanstaafl
number are equally bad for healthcare workers who don't have the luxury of "social distancing."
22
Coronavirus is getting worst causing people day by day in our environment. At the Auckland, I remember no has given me Taxi ride, only Dialkiwi supported me for the airport transfers.
2
As few comments:
1. The NYT should drop the paywall for their Coronavirus coverage.
2. The drive-through testing is brilliant. Bring that here.
3. We are sitting ducks in the US. Virus may be here but we’re going about our business mask-less and untested.
4. If masks are so useless why are their scarcity cited as a factor for spread?
5. The death rate makes sense. I said from the very beginning that the deaths from the Diamond were atypical when compared to other cruise outbreaks given there are three week cruises with similar demographics and when there are outbreaks, no one dies.
6. China trying to cover it up in December says to me that they knew something we didn’t. This likely came from the labs in Wuhan.
7. Trump and Pence are incompetent buffoons and so is the government they are running. This will likely rightfully cause them the election, especially if voters are given the choice to vote for someone like Biden, who has successfully run and been part of functional and competent government systems.
8. The lack of beds in S. Korea is terrifying. So many acutely ill at once.
9& 10. This article had lots of different angles so my comments did as well. The swimmer thing confused me but I’m going to go drown my sorrows in my bathtub, pretend I didn’t read any of this and channel my inner Wuhan swimmer 🏊 and his contagious optimism. That’s a better type of “pandemic” anyway: optimistic denial. In the light of the failures of my own government, I’ll take it.
200
@GWE
About your # 6 and what they knew...I have to keep coming back to this. Yes. It's totally anecdotal, but I do not think that so many of us are wrong to be curious (curious, not panicked) about why they went into overdrive when "only" 26 had died (they were already digging ground for the hospital at that point). I'm also keenly aware of and am empathetic about all of those who've died. Here the word "only" is used simply to highlight that our normal flu had already killed thousands this winter, with no hyper response.
I say this as someone who has not ascribed to the dump on China view; I've marveled at how fast they responded and the steps they took. We now look ridiculous for criticizing them on those grounds since we've done absolutely nothing to contain or deal with this, even though we've had months lead time.
But we know that they are a secretive nation and from the onset, their behavior suggests that they were
*very* worried indeed, far more so than for SARS and MERS which had 7% fatality rates.
It's important that we get to the bottom of how serious this really is. We do know that many in the medical community in China tried to raise the alarm early. What *exactly* did they know?
37
Number 3. The USA is literally bathing in it as we speak and unfortunately for neighbouring countries who were counting on American screening deployment, it is already too late. In 10 days, us data will surpass Japanese data.
34
@GWE
Masks aren't useless. They do help prevent an infected person from spreading it. The surgical masks aren't very helpful in protecting a non-infected person (other than possibly helping that person not touch their face and infecting themselves that way).
39
It is TWICE as contagious as flu, and FIVE TIMES as lethal. Say it.
57
@Jeffrey R Before you jump to conclusions you must factor into the equation of mortality rates that there is a vaccine for the annual flu and we have been dosing people by the millions each year for decades with Flu vaccines. The coronavirus is new to us and we do not have a vaccine yet. That may be one of the reasons the mortality rates are higher right now for Coronavirus than the Flu. We may not be comparing apples and apples yet.
15
@Jeffrey R "Covid-19 was deadlier than the seasonal flu, but did not transmit as easily."
so, it's not TWICE as contagious, in fact it's less likely to transmit, according to this vary article.
and the mortality rate quoted is based on confirmed cases. obviously there are more people infected than are confirmed cases. Quite possibly 2 to 5 times as many. What say you to that?
7
@PB
The flu mortality rate is also based on confirmed cases. A lot of people, including me, have had the flu and not bothered to go to a doctor. They are comparing confirmed cases for both the flu and for Covid19.
19
Coronavirus-19 is not as infectious as seasonal flu. It may kill a higher percent of Americans it infects, but it will infect a much smaller percent of Americans than seasonal flu. According to the U.S. Center for Disease Control, seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018-2019 flu season. So far there have been nine U.S. coronavirus deaths. The seasonal flu will probably kill far more Americans this year than coronavirus-19.
Estimates of the coronavirus-19 fatality rate range from about two percent to about four percent, but the estimated fatality rate will probably drop significantly once an accurate number of persons affected is determine. The fatality rates 0f severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)—which was also a coronavirus—dropped from a high of about 10 percent to about 2.3 percent. Coronavirus-19 may turn out to be only slightly more fatal then seasonal flue.
2
@William Case The number of fatalities is not independent of the government response. In other words, an inept government response kills people.
8
@William, seeing how this Coronavirus has spread so rapidly & easily I’m very curious how the WHO can say it is less infectious than the seasonal flu. I’m not sure we’ve been able to really capture the RO.
3
Some raw numbers rather than wild speculation:
These number do not include people who might have had and didn't even know because it was too mild or they thought they had a cold
China
Total cases:80,282
Total deaths: 2,981
Total recovered: 50,000
Japan ( not including diamond princess)
total cases: 319
total deaths: 6
fully recovered:43
Italy
total cases: 2,502
total deaths: 79
fully recovered: 160
USA
Total cases: 137
total deaths: 9
fully recovered: 9
France
total cases: 212
total deaths:4
recovered: 12
Diamond Princess:
total cases: 709
Total deaths: 6
total recovered:212
These are accurate figures. So panic if you want, go clear out walmart. The numbers are not very frightening.
7
True, with the exception that Japan leaders hide the numbers out of fear to lose the olympics...
9
Age 70-79 death rate: 8%
Age 80+ death rate: 14.8%
14
@Lonnie Epidemiologists in the UK and Italy believe the true number of infections (not just confirmed) in Italy could be as high as 100,000 and not less than 50,000 with 79 dead. The first woman who recovered described her symptoms as a headache that lasted 2 days. She was only tested because she was exposed to another confirmed case. She never would have gone to the doctor otherwise. Just anecdotal of course, but how many are out there like her everywhere?
12
Please start getting testing sites available widely in all urban centers of the US. Testing needs to happen immediately to prevent the spread from getting out of control.
6
It is out of control.
Don’t panic!
9
@Captain Nemo There's a difference between panicking and being aware of the situation and responding quickly to prevent the outbreak from getting worse.
If you call Panicking, people getting tested and be more conscious of keeping distance from each other and avoiding public spaces, I don't see any harm in that.
7
Captain Nemo on the Nautilus
Thx
Everything in your comment, including your handle, made me laugh.
Needed that.
1
What about the safety of the subway workers cleaning the subway? I do not see any masks...
13
Inexplicable: A full 2 months after the coronavirus outbreak and in Seattle we still see:
- Insufficient masks & gear for health care workers;
- An infected nursing home, Life Care of Kirkland, with vulnerable patients locked in together (our own Diamond Princess petri dish?);
- Critically ill flu patients transferred by staff and medics who are *not* wearing protective gear;
- Insufficient test kits to test those with flu symptoms;
- Insufficient hospital beds to hand the serious cases predicted by science;
- Nearly unanimous opinion of scientists that thousands more are infected and infectious, but undiagnosed in the community.
But don't worry, we are all sneezing into our elbows as we go off to work or school.
43
@J Schlosser
I hate to tell you, the supply thing is not going to get better. Every country is now experiencing this because so much of what we use is made in China, all of us need the same products at the same time, and the Chinese aren't working because people are still sick over there. If you want to place blame, the place it on China for starting this disease. Also....everyone has enjoyed cheap products from China and we ALL voted with our wallets on that model. So, everybody take a big slice of blame from that pie and keep passing it around.
22
@Lyn Robins
It's not only the masks. China supplies the world with a huge amount of ingredients for medications and with medications themselves. If China does not get back to work soon, we may see shortages of drugs from generic antibiotics to acetomenophen. We have come to rely on China as the sole or major source of far too many critical items.
8
@J Schlosser
The problem is not only in masks, medicine it is in the total of everything.
A first world country should be prepared for such an event. Meaning, certain things should simply not be outsourced. This needs planing ahead, consideration.
In order to do so it needs an understanding that governments have a RESPONSIBILITY for their people. In order to implement a responsibility governments should understand that for that it needs education. Things have to be understood also for the difficulty tasks bring along. Ending up in a two way communication is the only way a first world country can survive such an outbreak.
If people understand the motivation behind a task they can then go on and make mature decisions for themselves. Again in the total of it.
Americans has way! too long just handed responsibility to the government. Governments have taken over. Lined their pockets with cash. Use their people as sitting ducks, canaries. Kept them on (very) low budgets, loaded with problems, daily more and no light of cure in sight.
Unfortunately such an outbreak will eventually bring everything to light....
.... Expad living in Switzerland for the last 15 years and grown up to my total self...
1
what is the data point the WHO is waiting on before they officially declare this to be a pandemic—which it clearly has been for a month now.
9
Your (everyone's?) naivete in this matter is astounding. To make statements that "first" case found in NY or CA or anywhere seems very silly. Given the number of travelers coming and going, it's certain this virus as been everywhere for some time. It's just that no one tested for it or was too concerned given that most cases are so similar to the flu. Of course it's spreading in Manhattan - no matter how hard anyone tries, there are just too many people coming and going to have any other result.
19
You are absolutely right. A fully-funded CDC should have started surveillance testing in all major cities back in mid-January. We would have much more accurate case numbers and could have gotten ahead of this. But the money wasn't there.
4
I may be crazy but I distinctly recall seeing on TV a month or so ago some sort of press conference where our mayor said they hoped to start testing very soon on two categories of people: some who seemed to have severe flu but were testing negative for it, and unexplained cases of pneumonia. It didn't happen and I assume because at that time all testing was controlled by CDC and they refused to test anyone who didn't meet their criteria (mostly having to do with links to China).
I think there are plenty of people here who believe virus has been among us for months. Just look at number of locals traveling to and from China during Xmas/New Year. Just look at the thousands and thousands of Chinese tourists from all over China (including Wuhan) who come here every year and whose travels weren't stopped until mid-late Jan.
3
@Andrea actually, competent people weren’t there. They left the CDC after Trump repeatedly tried cutting the budget.
2
Trump on coronavirus testing: "The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we're doing & we undid that decision a few days ago so that testing can take place in a much more accurate & rapid fashion"
Translation: I know I am in trouble so let's blame Obama and his administration because I am the greatest president ever.
So constructive. Not!
27
@Edgar
I just heard him say that. Did you hear Pence qualify every statement he made with a compliment to Trump. I could only take a few minutes and decided to stop listening.
Isn’t the statue of limitations up for blaming (truth or falsehood) a former president?
Trump’s despicableness is a bottomless pit.
34
Edgar
I gagged when I heard don the con say that. I am not totally familiar with whatever regulation trump is blaming Obama for, but I know this. Obama was smart. He listened to his experts in the CDC, NIH and DHS. And he had real experts, not “yes men” in charge of those organizations. And Obama had an intact functioning Pandemic Disease division in those organizations. Trump cut them off and out 2 years ago because he is just dumb and anti-science.
17
@Edgar
The Obama administration made the decision to require the developers and makers of tests to clear the FDA process. That process takes quite a long time, and has now been waived under by the FDA because the the current emergency.
2
I guess it stands to reason that if we have a president who believes global warming and climate issues are "fake news" and refuses to believe, let alone even read what educated, skilled and knowledgeable scientists write, then why in the world would or should we assume or think he would take the coronavirus and its implications seriously?
Thank goodness for the World Health Organization, the CDC and the NYT because at least they continue to cover and report the latest updates to the world.
I feel more informed and secure reading their stories than a single word I have heard uttered from the president or any member of his administration.
12
As usual with mainstream media publications, there are no facts, only opinions.
For example: How many people have died in the United States from the virus? Who are they? Where were they? What complications die they die from? How did they get the virus?
None of these things are reported.
We do not care about first respsonders who may not have masks, or ways to self quarantine. We want to know facts about people who died and why.
4
It is simply grotesque how the media has simply stopped reporting on China now that things appear to be seriously improving. The brutal measures imposed by the regime and the heroic sacrifices if the Chinese people bought valuable time for the world. Yet the criminal ineptitude of the US and other "democratic" governments have now ensured a pandemic by frittering away this opportunity. Politicians in denial, criminal ineptitude at the CDC and a cover-up, bad test kits never explained, the refusal to use the superior German test just to promote US Pharma-vultures, no testing to cover up actual spread...China is looking good by comparison. Still no real preparation, no actual measures to enable working people to take off work is sick. Coronavirus=Katrina 2.0
25
WRT (With Respect To) the Self-Isolated NYS Iranian-American(?) Woman. Who was described as a "Health Care Worker." And was lauded for her actions (Isolation). AAR (At Any Rate) what type of Health Care Worker was She? If she was a Physician/Scientist/Nurse, one might expect she have endeavored to Not get Infected in the First Place. Perhaps this a Teaching Moment ? Maybe one should take the most stringent Actions No Matter what level of Knowledge/Education.
We will never know what is going on here unless wide spread testing gets done. Any one should be able to walk into a hospital or clinic and get tested.The media needs to put some pressure on this totally inept admin with a Pres that has no clue how to address this.
13
Correspondingly, we need more labs/technicians to correctly interpret test results
1
At this very moment there is a hearing on CSPAN3 about the President’s 2021 NIH Budget. The representatives are asking probing questions about the coronavirus and the NIH experts are providing answers, no sugar coating, no wishful thinking, no miracles - just the FAUCI FACTS.
The hearing covers all NIH programs but I have heard the best coronavirus questions and responses. The questions and answers are non-partisan, extremely informative, credible, science based and easy for a lay person to understand.
It is understandable that everyone wants to know why masks work and don’t work, why healthcare workers are more important than general public, what’s the difference between flu and coronavirus, how does one get it, when will testing start, what will starting tell us, etc
Now many people post excellent answers to reader’s questions but many people frankly do not know what they are talking about. The solution is personal responsibility to educate oneself with info from the primary sources.
Congressional hearings are an excellent source of expert information. One will be surprised by the intellect of many congress people.
slog through some hearings especially those with Dr. Fauci. Also Representative Lois Frankel (FL) asks extremely practical questions that she calls supermarket encounters with constituents.
CSPAN is also available as an app. Check it out. It will make for a more informed community.
https://www.c-span.org/search/?tagid%5B%5D=5752&sort=Newest
8
@Agent 99 Also...there is the CDC website
1
Agent 99
Thank you. I am very interested in the C-span presentation and will check it out.
CDC.gov is helpful as well
4
@Lyn Robins that’s been politicized.
1
What is with all this hysteria? It’s just embarrassing how herd like we have all become. Folks, it’s the flu. Sheesh, wash your hands and get back to business as usual.
3
This Coronavirus is a tragedy on many levels! Additionally, pronouncing the names of some of these medical experts can be a challenge! Add to that, the New York Times ran a photo of President Trump, standing beside a Doctor that sure looked like Anthony Fauci, the highly regarded clinician, except for the fact he was wearing a smock, with the name, John Miliu MD emblazoned across it! Go figure.
4
Well, that's about it then.
With the announcement of new cases in New York, and again in Los Angeles, America's two biggest metropolitan areas, you can expect the public pulse to quicken and 'panic', for lack of a better word, to set in.
For all intents and purposes, a half-dozen cases of the coronavirus in L.A. might as well be a half-million. People will not wish to gamble with their lives. What's fine for a Vegas slot machine just won't do when it comes to mortality rates. Sure, you could explain to all and sundry that---true---so far, COVID-19 is much less rampant than your average ho-hum flu season or that the mortality rate runs about even with the flu, but they won't see it that way.
Why?
Because nobody bothered explaining it to them? Because the media has driven 'scare' headlines into them, first without explaining the caveats, second, for failing to put 'Coronavirus!' into helpful context. Perception is everything, and perception is reality.
So, expect supermarket shelves to empty out by this weekend. Expect restaurants, stores, movie theatres and other shared public spaces to close---that's close---by, oh, sometime next week. And it's around that time that I expect President Trump to deliver an FDR-type fireside chat, reassuring the nation that...everything's swell.
And another guarantee: Until Amazon employees and UPS drivers get sick, expect gazillions of empty blue boxes to pile up in the nation's garbage as we turn commerce (even more) online.
5
@David Bartlett
Today, the head of the WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said: “Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”
In fact, the mortality rate of the flu is estimated between 0.1% and 0.2%.
That means COVID-19 is 30x more deadly than the annual flu.
So why are you saying that the mortality rate "runs about even with the flu"?
Your comment was a dangerous lie.
5
This kit (Disaster Preparedness Backpack) is being sold by Aliso Viejo, Orange County, CA to its residents.
The kit is definitely not COVID-19 specific (Aliso is in earthquake territory), but in reviewing it, people can get ideas about what they may want in a DIY kit.
I have noticed that hand sanitizer and cleansing wipes are not included:
"The Customized Kit Includes:
• 4-in-1 AM/FM Radio, Flashlight, Siren & Phone Charger
• 12-Hour Hour Light Sticks (2)
• 4-in-1 Gas & Water Shut Off Tool
• Biohazard Bag
• Pair of Pre-Packed Nitrile Gloves (2)
• Flat Fold N95 Masks (2)
• 54 Piece First Aid Kit
• Duct Tape (1 Roll)
• Adult Emergency Ponchos (2)
• Large Solar Blanket - 84’ x 52’
• Personal Hygiene Kits (2)
• Folder for Critical Paperwork
• Fillable Household Emergency Plan
• Aliso Viejo Specific Hazard & Preparedness Information
Extra Pockets & Space to Add Items Specific to Your Household"
1
@Oceanviewer
It's possible that hand sanitizer and cleaning wipes are included in the "Personal Hygiene Kits (2)."
Will I lose my electricity and the roof over my head when I’m stuck indoors with the virus?....
@Ali w
There is no accompanying explanation for the kit, but it was released today, in the midst of COVID-9 concerns, by the Emergency Management Program of the Orange County Sheriff’s Department/City of Aliso Viejo.
At first glance, it seems to be most appropriate for earthquake and fire risk zones, as occurs in many parts of California.
However, I do wonder if it could potentially come in handy if worst case scenarios for COVID-19 occur; and very large segments of the population are infected?
In that case, there might be vast power disruptions if employees of energy companies are unable to get to work to maintain power grids.
Just a hunch.
1
We need to start retooling a few of our manufacturing facilities so that we can start cranking out PPE. We cant wait for China to get back on line.
11
Lyn Robins
No kidding.
3
“Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-19 cases have died,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the W.H.O.’s director general, said on Tuesday at a news conference in Geneva.
Trump's response and take on that during today's Covid-19 briefing? “Had Warren endorsed Bernie, we would have had a different story now.”
3
Seems that the unsung heroes in this mess are those who are clearly working diligently at trying to keep us safe. Not the medical folks who do deserve thanks and are getting it.
I mean those who are scrubbing and wiping and cleaning and disinfecting all those surfaces we touch. And possibly exposing themselves to contamination.
I salute them for their willingness to show up and do the job even though they may be worrying about catching the virus and what that would mean for them and their families. Do they get sick leave? Do they have adequate health insurance? What do they do if they get quarantined?
So, from at least one of us counting on you folks: Thank you for your service and dedication to the job and hand.
And, please stay safe.
103
@jb
Maybe, just a thought, if they do not do it they lose their job..?
Second! shouldn’t that be the work of professionals? America really has a waste-line on their people... Anyone noticed they are (all/most) of African decent...?
Put well! payed, well educated and well insured people in charge! This is inhuman!
1
As a 70 year old with underlying health conditions, I can report that my friends and I are watching this like a hawk. I’ve started spending more time at home, have completely eliminated all but essential travel by car and any form of mass transit is out of the question. I’ve stopped going to the gym and senior center, won’t get near a crowd and do my best to stay at least six feet away from anyone else. I carry and use disposable gloves when outside my home, wash my hands with soap and water several times per day and won’t touch my face until then. If I had an upcoming dental appointment, I would postpone it. I’m even debating putting off my next haircut. Godspeed and good luck to all of us.
98
Good luck Pete doing the same here. Not going to the movie theater or any base ball games or basketball or anything in public. And washing my hands
15
Your caution is commendable, but don't take it too far. My grandfather survived Ww2 and said you don't control the bullet that kills you. do what you can then relax.
8
@Walsh It seems like we should take it as far as we can. The more people avoid public spaces, the slower the virus will spread and the more people will survive.
6
Please, to the medical community, be careful using Tamiflu. If you look at past medical papers, they point to problems with liver toxicity associated with this drug. If vulnerable and elderly folks are given this as a medication towards addressing covid, then one has little clue whether they died due to the adverse effects of the drug or the virus. Sigh, and to think I have used Chinese star anise ( the original source of shikimic acid for Tamiflu) in my cooking forever safely. Perhaps what we are missing are the other molecules that balance shikimate and make it safe for consumption. In any case I have brewed cough potions with this seed and fed it to family and friends for a long time, great for coughs. The concentration of everything must be nice and low enough not to strain any organ and it sure helps ease the cough.
3
The most important thing at the moment is the credibility of the C.D.C. With rampant rumors, understandable fear, profit-seeking hustlers, and political opportunists everywhere, there must be one voice that Americans can count on to present the best understanding of the nature of the disease and its spread. This is a moment when the individuals who work for the C.D.C. must stand up as responsible Americans and not let external political pressure influence their best judgement.
Thus it is quite problematic that the article, "U.S. Plans ‘Radical Expansion’ of Coronavirus Testing" stated, "The kits had three components but some of the components were producing an inconclusive result for many public health labs using the test. On Thursday, the agency announced that labs with two of three working components could go ahead and use the C.D.C. tests...."
Why should we have confidence in results of the "new" test? If the C.D.C. originally thought that all three elements were necessary for an accurate test result, how does simply eliminating one problematic element solve the problem and produce accurate results? Why should this not be viewed as more of a political solution -- let's get lots of "tests" out there to look good -- rather than a genuine public health/medical solution?
"Test" is somewhat misleading, as not all tests were created equal, let alone have been subject to evaluation and quality control. As well, the processing of the tests is still limited.
11
Rather than debate about actual mortality rate I think we can clearly see that elderly with underlying medical conditions are very vulnerable.
We need to have good guidance on how to manage that population - better PPE, Strict visiting hours, cleaning etc.
14
@SridharC
two doctors who died in Wuhan were early 30s and late 20s.
5
I’m one of the elderly with underlying health issues that you talked about. Yesterday my son and daughter-in- law, who is a nurse, came over and we discussed the problems I am facing and what they are here to do for me. All families with the elderly should make these same preparations. Just be smart
6
@Jo Powell And May the God that answers prayers keep you safe.
2
The number are coming in from Italy and to be fair they kind of back up everything people are saying about Corona virus. These are very accurate numbers, and what is happening in Italy will probably happen here.
Italian authorities have carried out 25,386 swab tests
so far there have been 2,500 people who have tested positive for Corona Virus.
79 people have died, overwhelmingly the age of the people who have died is between 63 and 95
1034 people are hospitalized
229 in intensive care
1229 have mild symptom and are recovering at home
160 people have fully recovered.
Every single number is almost identical to the stats that came out of China.
So stop panicking this is not a world killer, many people probably got cases so mild they didn't even know they had it, they say it might have been circulating in Italy for up to 3 weeks.
People over 63 must take immediate precautions. All nursing home must stop receiving visitors, places that have senior recreation should stop immediately. The people who have the most to fear are senior citizens. The Italy numbers are almost perfectly syncing to the numbers from China. Seniors should take this very serious, stay in your homes, no unnecessary travel. If you are over 40 and have underlying health conditions take the same precautions.
source-The Guardian newspaper US edition.
22
@Lonnie I really don't understand why people are so quick to point out that the mortality rate might be much lower because people with mild symptoms didn't get tested, yet ignore the corollary, which is that people who die untested, with deaths attributed to causes like pneumonia or respiratory failure, might mean the mortality rate is much higher.
12
Why do you believe the numbers from China? If you look at South Korea and the number of infections per capita, you might reach a very different conclusion.
3
@Lonnie
"160 people have fully recovered."
and potentially able to become reinfected and contagious.
4
Spare a thought for the elderly. They are our parents, our elders.
Nature has deemed that they will die in disproportionate numbers so that us, the younger generation can survive (and continue to destroy the planet).
It’s ok to feel relief that we are not (yet) the affected demographic, it’s human. But it should humble us. For doesn’t it feel like the cycle of life that nature seems to be sparing the young while forsaking the old? And which older generation wouldn’t gladly give up their lives for the well-being of the next one?
I would. Wouldn’t you?
Losing a parent must be devastating. (I am grateful I have mine, still to love.)
Love them, honor them, be kind. To them and others.
132
@Madhavi Pashler If the elderly were kind hearted and concerned with the next generations we wouldn't have Trump as president and be on the verge of destroying the planet with climate change. I get that people want to think of their own elderly as kind, but it is just not true.
We should be kind, but not because they deserve it, but because that is who we are. At least some of us.
10
A deeply beautiful reflection. Thank you.
4
Beautifully said!
Reading medical information in the daily press is frustrating. But it is also misleading. Just 3-4 days ago, a prominent expert was reported saying that corona was far more contagious than the flu.
8
@blgreenie Agreed. Maybe we should stop reading.
1
"The figure [for COVID-19 mortality] does not include all mild cases that do not require medical attention and..."
sure; except that NO mortality figure for "normal" flu ever includes cases that aren't examined by a doctor, does it? How could it?
So it still means this could be 20 times more lethal than 'seasonal flu'. Let's be cautious; however, pls don't parrot Trump's Happy-Days propaganda.
8
interesting....so today on 3/4 the WHO says C19 is less contagious than influenza - but 4 days ago data was published showing C19 is twice as contagious as seasonal influenza.
And we must remember the majority of the WHO's data is coming exclusively from the Chinese government.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html
>>Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average......
By comparison, the figure for the seasonal flu is roughly 1.3.
9
Even that number is an estimate, there are no accurate data to calculate it.
1
Agreed different info. I think they are realizing that while China had closed their borders and we were watching them, the corona virus came into ports on West Coast like SF, Seattle, Oregon, and has been silently affecting people. Some are just now getting tests because they had tight restrictions- no testing people who weren’t in China or with someone who was, so exposure. So now we have a patient at UC Davis Med Center in Sacramento who possibly contaminated multiple people working at a hospital, they weren’t using an infectious disease policy of gowns and masks. Washington state had cases starting in a nursing facility for seniors. They need to be taken out and quarantined, we are repeating the Princess Cruise boat in Japan there. So so far we are making bad decisions, not quaranting here. And not closing sports and movies and meetings and schools.
4
No matter how dire or frightening the truth may be, I feel better hearing the truth because I can prepare for whatever may come down the pike.
But this constant diluting and denial of accurate and truthful facts is what I cannot stand nor tolerate. This misinformation is actually hurting the country, literally.
I can trust and believe someone who is truthful.
I have no faith or hope in a liar for they are like a building without any kind of solid foundation or support.
12
How do you know who is lying unless you collect, validate and assess the facts yourself?
I agree, it is maddening that panic spreads so much more easily than rational reasoning. Especially if Trump for once is closer to the truth than usual. Albeit for the wrong, ie selfish, reasons.
@Captain Nemo , I know Trump is lying, he proved it beyond any doubt many times before
4
Fatality numbers are not that bad for a pandemic (about 6-7% and most are frail elderly people). But governments keep floating 2.5-3.4% fatalities, which is wrong — it is about 3% of “all, ongoing + resolved” cases but 6-7% of “resolved” cases. Resolved means “recovered or died.” Still confused? Would you determine fail rate in a math class based on those who took the final exam (F/F+P) or based on exam takers plus those who just arrived for their first class (F/F+P+haven't taken the class or exam yet)? Why is everyone using those freshly diagnosed in the calculation of fatality rate?
5
@Misha Havtikess
another knock on the numbers—data—everyone should read.
The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It
Because the U.S. data on coronavirus infections are so deeply flawed, the quantification of the outbreak obscures more than it illuminates.
Alexis Madrigal March 3, 2020
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/
2
Exactly! The way the mortality rate is being calculated presumes that all those infected will recover.
2
The Zika virus was not so serious or deadly, but the effect on pregnant women was horrific and devastating. Something to consider, as experts are studying the impact of this new illness.
6
Use of mortality statistics is valid only when adjusted by age. Saying that Covid-19 has a mortality of only 3.4% is misleading. SARS, a Coronovirus, had a mortality of over 50% for those over 60. I suspect Covid-19 is similar.
I am over 60 and will do what I can do postpone my inevitable exposure. I'd rather wait until there is at least an effective anti-viral and not just supportive care in the hospital corridor or in a stadium of improvised cots surrounded by literally hundreds of as infected or more infected people.
Who in their right mind is still buying on the dip?
9
What is being done to prepare for 15% of those infected needing to spend weeks in the hospital? The medical bills alone are going to bankrupt millions.
42
Perhaps the only positive outcome of this pandemic is that it will bring many businesses to re-think their operating models. A vast majority of companies have been skeptical towards concepts like smart working, home office and remote conferencing. As a result, an enormous amount of energy (read: CO2 emissions) is wasted every day in travel that could be easily avoided.
Until recently, every time I go to Zurich airport (the nearest to my work) I always meet people from my company. We seem to be in perpetual flux, with people moving constantly between customer meetings and visits to our manufacturing plants. Now, with the outbreak of the coronavirus we have put strict limitations on travel and we are "forced" to hold more remote conferences with customers and suppliers. And guess what - business goes on anyway. I am currently working at home because I visited a region of Italy affected by the coronavirus, and as a result I have been quarantined for two weeks. Still, in one morning I have held several call conferences, and I have done everything I would have done at the office, minus the continuous distractions and the wasted time.
If this becomes a permanent change in the corporate culture on a global scale, imagine the amount of CO2 that will be saved. It will probably surpass anything we have attempted so far to address global warming.
861
@Andy ... not to mention the $$$ saved by the companies in travel (hotels, planes, meals, etc.)...
58
@Andy As someone who has worked at home part time and part time in the office for 25 years you are so right. My days at home are much more efficient then my days in the office. I was lucky to have a very progressive boss early in my career who approved this arrangement. Not every worked in every industry can do this. That’s ok. Let’s have the ones who can do so during this epidemic. It will make it easier for those who can’t ( like my daughter who is a nurse) to get the things she needs ( like a real mask,) if less people need them.
60
@Andy
You guys are lucky. I’ve observed a trend the past few years of companies canceling telework/work-from-home by micromanaging CEOs on power trips.
The thinking seems to be “If something is benefiting the employees, then it must be harmful to the company”
65
Looks like it's not just the common cold like the Presidential Medal of Freedom winner said it was, nor is it just a democratic hoax like the President said it was. I wonder if either one will retract those statements.
891
Pretty soon “no one” will remember they said that. They count on that.
100
@Deb Smith
Exactly correct. The right wing always counts on the public's short memory and their faith is always rewarded.
Say any absurd, extreme, rabble-rousing garbage that works in the moment because all you need is to stoke the flames. Truth is irrelevant and you'll never be held to account.
74
It’s on tape. People will remember.
12
President Trump's has failed at his #1 job: keep Americans safe. $45 billion to build a border wall with Mexico and a proposed $693.3 million reduction to the CDC’s funding is disgraceful and deadly.
1351
@Ben Boissevain
More than a disgrace, it should be a fireable offense. This man is endangering us. Why are we so supine in light of this? We're like lemmings over a cliff. We actually have power and the electorate.
It's time we banded together as a nation and demanded that this president in name only be removed from office and that protocols be put in place to contain and override Pence until the whole criminal regime can be replaced with a functioning government.
124
@Ben Boissevain
Exactly correct. Sooner or later every President gets tested by something serious, and it's no surprise that Trump and his Administration of incompetent grifters are failing.
Elections have consequences, as Republicans love to point out when they are riding high. But that cuts both ways.
86
South Korea has committed 25bn. they have 1/6 our population.
92
I have what I’m almost positive is just a common cold, but I’m not going anywhere, I’m working from home, and I cancelled a trip out of state for later this week—because the last thing anyone needs is other viruses floating around unnecessarily right now. It’s just common sense. Why move around in public while you have any kind of transmissible illness if it’s not imperative?
23
I'm learning more from these comments than I have in news stories, and certainly through our government.
The collective intelligence and wisdom of people is vast. It needs to be freed.
Doctors and nurses need to speak plainly about their experiences.
Pence and company are spreading false claims, hopes and are too vague to be useful.
25
According to the WHO, this virus is less contagious than the flu. Right above that story, it says that one man gave it to his wife, son, and the person who drove him to the hospital (at the very least). The reproductive rate of influenza is around 2... I realize that this man in NY is just one case, but it leaves me skeptical that the WHO is right on this one.
27
@NewEng Gal
WHO makes unsubstantiated comments every day. They are the least reliable of any other health agency. Don’t rely on them for accurate information.
4
Perhaps a little too negative, but they are overreacting to political pressure somewhat.
1
What happened to people coming into this country from affected areas that are supposed to be screened when they get off the plane? its not happening! On a news station in my area, students coming home from Rome DID NOT get screened. This will spread in this country very fast.
6
I am in Rome and we actually only have very few cases here.
2
@AC Bucks - Saying you're doing something and actually doing it are two very different things. Our leaders in Washington DC have zero credibility, especially as people like you report in with real facts from the real world.
2
the questions being asked now and going unanswered are the same asked and unanswered two months ago.
it is evident that the lack of clear and consistently updated information on this event from "authorities" is really, really bad news.
the bad news is; they...don't...know.
4
Right now, March 4, in the US the % of infected people dying vs confirmed cases is around 10%.
Why is that not a big headline? That is a signal that the health system in the US is extremely deficient when compared to other countries of the world.
6
This is because there are so few to no testing supplies available in even major academic hospitals and only the very sick are being tested if at all.
1
Think about Mitch McConnell acquitting the president. That was our chance to realize the true potential for disaster and Mitch McConnell strove to support the lies, to support authoritarianism thus stripping us of everything.
Ask yourself, who is traveling the world more than this president (has he been tested?)
answer: the military (are they being tested?)
12
Would be good to read reporting on new cases being the L or less aggressive S type.
Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure.
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463?searchresult=1
2
Without the press, we would be living in Venezuela under the current presidency. People can not afford hospital stays, visits to the doctor for testing or stays at home when schools close.
The government infrastructure that would keep us safe has been decimated. People in the cabinet have been heard talking of stock prices when a vaccine breaks.
Vaccines need to be free; testing needs to be free and hospital stays subsidized by the federal government. Maybe now people will understand the human cost of having a liar and psychopathic narcissist in the White House during a national emergency.
25
@Anonymous He's a symptom, not the disease. The disease is unfettered, unregulated, unmitigated capitalism. We have reached the end stage of it.
4
This is as easily spread as the flu. What is the WHO even talking about?
8
Not as easily spread, yet the man who drove a West Chester NY patient to the hospital caught it, too (as did his entire family, which is more understandable.) I'm getting a little nervous about the moving target that this virus seems to be. It feels like it might be far more contagious than they think it is.
74
@vvv03 - There are many stories of drivers being infected by their passengers who were being taken to a hospital. As a precaution, New York City cabbies are now cleaning their vehicles multiple times each day with disinfectant.
10
@vvv03 You stole my comment! Sorry but the CDC is likely dead wrong on this count. This is an easy spreader and will likely be endemic in no time. We are getting ready for a surge in our hospital. We will get through this but lets not whitewash what is happening.
13
@vvv03Agreed. The actual language used was that Covid-19 "spreads less efficiently than the flu." It's my understanding that the seasonal flu has a reproductive rate r0 of about 1.3--the numbers for Covid-19, whether from independent scientists, or WHO, have been consistently higher. I suspect this is semantics at play.
8
In addition to washing your hands, everyone should take their temperature in the morning ad if they have a fever stay home or wear a mask and gloves when they have to go out
15
I know there are no easy answers and solutions here, but I’d venture a guess that when people see someone out and about with a mask and gloves on, it will fan hysteria. Given how irrational and paranoid people are these days, I’d also fear for the sick person’s safety.
Perhaps a good metrics for U.S. capabilities is to track all flu deaths in the U.S. To date the highest flu death count is approximately 80,000. If our total is fewer then the country gets a good grade, if not we need more work on prevention and containment.
1
@clarity007
proving what exactly?
the only thing know with certainty about the novel coronavirus is that is extremely contagious.
we know how the flu's vectors.
we don't know the novel corona viruses vectors.
In epidemiology, a disease vector is any agent which carries and transmits an infectious pathogen into another living organism; most agents regarded as vectors are organisms, such as intermediate parasites or microbes, but it could be an inanimate medium of infection such as dust particles.
1
@clarity007 we already know that our vaccine companies are way behind w/o waiting for future data.
For at least 20 years we have taken a whipping during flu season while the free market has produced the annual flu vaccine using the inferior and antiquated technology of growing the virus on chicken eggs.
Those same 20 years government could have mandated and supported recombinant genetic technology replace chicken eggs methods which would without doubt produce an improved vaccine.
But the cost to bring a new pill to market is in the range of 1 billion dollars minimum after considering all the false starts and failed efforts before a success is achieved so no capitalist would sink that kind of cash into a vaccine whose profit is so risky. Only government would do that which is where we have been failed because congress is so dysfunctional.
Just think if we had spent the 5 trillion on a better vaccine for flu season instead of "terror" campaigns which have produced little or no benefit.
5
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Proving you can contain a new flu virus
If face masks are of no value to the public in preventing infection by the Coronavirus, why are face masks so important to those who work in the health industry? Seems like a simple question but I have yet to see anyone provide an explanation for what seems like contradictory information. Perhaps people would not hoard the masks if they understood the answer.
21
@PaulM
the short answer is there is no scientific certainty on how this novel coronavirus is spread which is why, where this began and had the most devastating impact, we see photos daily of everyone wearing masks.
1
@PaulM
worst case, and something authorities would be loathed to report without absolute certainty, is that the virus is airborne—as in aerosolized.
What does aerosolized mean in medical terms?
The term is often used in medicine to refer specifically to the production of airborne particles (e.g. tiny liquid droplets) containing infectious virus or bacteria.
The infectious organism is said to be aerosolized.
3
@PaulM there's a shortage of masks in the U.S. because most were imported from China but China has stopped exporting masks, keeping them for their own people. China recommends that everyone where a mask. So does South Korea and even Vietnam. U.S. leaders could be more honest about it and say that they must prioritize masks for healthcare workers because there's a shortage. Trump could also try to speed up U.S. mask production but he's too busy tweeting about Bloomberg and Warren.
29
Why are people in NY being tested but not in WA?
11
while we are at it...
when was it decided and who decided to go back to calling this "novel coronavirus" as it was named in the early days back in January.
Why is "Covid-19" being dropped?
2
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Coronaviruses are very common. Regular colds are caused by one variant. This is different and novel.
@clarity007
that wasn't my question...try again.
1
@Mary Elizabeth Lease - The NY Times should simply adopt the COVID-19 terminology. That's the official name of the illness caused by the new virus, which is technically named SARS-CoV-2.
2
What if any recommendations are in place for Broadway audiences? Hundreds of people in close quarters for 2 hours/ night, no opportunity to move away from a coughing neighbor, or worse, one who is asymptomatic and unknowingly contagious.
14
@Debbie
We have two choices: We can all go into isolation, shut down travel and quarantine large numbers of the general population, or we can accept the facts that there is a new respiratory virus of similar severity as the flu, continue with our business and lives as usual and accelerate vaccine development by reducing bureaucratic hurdles.
I vote for the second option. Based on the current very incomplete data coronavirus is probably not that much more serious than the flu. Which still is bad, but not the end of the world.
Let's get some perspective.
5
@Debbie
Why would you need someone to tell you what recommendations are for Broadway shows, other than "Don't go"?
17
@Captain Nemo
Why do people keep saying similar severity as the flu when everything you read, including from the W.H.O, says otherwise?
10
as I've read reporting in this publication and the threads discussing this developing pandemic and those of half a dozen others from around the globe for the last two months I'm struck by them mirroring what has become cliche—the five stages of grief.
6
The 1918 virus killed relatively few in the spring time, and seemed to be mostly gone in the summertime, when windows opened and people didn't have to gather indoors.
But the autumn of 1918 and the winter that followed into 1919 was brutal. Millions died.
So history might teach us to be very vigilant. But I'm sure trump will again glorify himself and humiliate others no matter what reality would seem to teach him.
52
@deb Lets hope we have a vaccine by that time, i mean a year is enough time to build a bridge across the Atlantic ocean, i think we have the scientists that can get that done. You would think we could rush it through, and yes the summer humidity and heat is a natural flu killer. Sunlight is a great disinfectant.
1
@Lonnie
we will be lucky to have a vaccine by the winter of 2021.
21
@Lonnie
But this is not a flu right?
Please tell us what the current "false positive" and "false negative" rates are for the COVID-19 tests. The importance of these numbers was even higher during the AIDS epidemic, but was seldom explained to the public.
4
@Tim
The entire analysis here is flawed: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/ ("The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It"). From yesterday's piece:
"The data are untrustworthy because the processes we used to get them were flawed. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s testing procedures missed the bulk of the cases. They focused exclusively on travelers, rather than testing more broadly, because that seemed like the best way to catch cases entering the country."
7
most worrying to me is the number of people who seem to have just woken from a deep sleep as if what has now reverted to being called the "novel coronavirus" hasn't been unfolding in real time for the past two months.
16
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Rather you have not been listening and certainly not accessing the CDC sight.
@clarity007
I've not been listening to Rush, I'd urge you to stop that habit of yours as it is more virulent than any coronavirus.
3
In response to the complaints about WHO's stats on the mortality rate being artificially high...I think it likely is, but so are all other rates as well. It's still more serious than seasonal flu. If you have a-symptomatic flu you don't go get tested. In fact, even with symptomatic flu tons of people know what they have and do not seek a diagnosis or medical attention. Same goes for past epidemics. SARS, MERS, 1957 flu, 1918 Spanish Flu, etc. No one with mild cases gets care for any virus.
1
@SCDem Epidemiologists are able to do studies on small, representative populations to analyze how widespread the flu is in a population. These studies are able to catch cases that are either asymptomatic or mild using tests that measure antibodies. They do not test everyone, but they do tests on small scale samples. Many studies of the the spread of the flu were done on the H1N1 strain. To think scientists aren't doing studies meeting strict P values on the spread of the flu is not correct and is actually dangerous. If people do not know about these studies their work ends up being de-funded.
1
Higher? It is hundreds of times higher - the title is very misleading.
4
American exceptionalism hysteria has taken a whipping lately after realizing we are not invincible and our leaders have erred as badly as other nations we consider inferior or unexceptional. As an old grandpa looking back I see a transparent free press as our major success and friend like what we read here today.
As we go to the polls soon we should keep in mind that it is not hard to tell the difference between casual liars and leaders who tell the hard often painful truth.
Turns out our health care system might not be #1 given our failure to be properly prepared to deal with a viral mutation.
And not because we couldn't see it coming but because of our tribal hate prevents us from coming together for our own good on big issues like health and fair wages.
Many of us cheered as health care was reduced of taken from millions who should have had it as a basic human right provided by any intelligent and compassionate society.
Intelligent to keep your nation healthy and up to date on vaccines for emerging diseases instead of wasting 5 trillion on chasing "terror" yet don't have face masks for our nurses to care for the sick.
Compassionate because it is what Jesus would do if he was president of a real Christian nation which would not deprive the weak, the sick and poor of decent care.
Taking care of the weakest we take care of ourselves. Think about that when you vote.
624
@sjm
This is one of the best insights I've seen in a long time. I have been so fed up with what many in the USA have done with Christianity that I have been ready to throw my religion away. Your words are wise and a balm. Thank you.
Please do think about this man's words when you vote.
51
@sjm Well said. Thank you for that.
18
@ SJM
Agree with your comments, but as a medical professional must add that not only does the health of lower socioeconomic populations directly affect everyone, so does the “health” of the environment. And as we are learning from world wide world climate change, our environment doesn’t end @ our borders.
44
Trump isn't the reason we are all going to get sick , its all the people in the media and in the White House who refuse to admit the obvious-he is in over his head on this, he needs help to fight this, he isn't the man for the job to fight, he has the wrong attitude and makeup to deal with a crises that would test even our best Presidents. Ask the Prime Minster of Japan, who is fighting this with all he has, ask for help. We are not alone in this. There are ways to fight an epidemic. Trump is so disconnected from the man in the street he has no idea what is really happening, how frightened people are.
This is my sixth comment of the day, i am sorry, but it is my way of fighting the Corona Virus, i am a fighter by nature, its in my DNA, my father fought on D-Day, my father was a fighter, he did not have bone spurs.
44
@Jackson
it is your fault for making things up that aren't true—otherwise known as prevarication.
13
@Jackson
I find this comment petty and off point as a reply to the above comments. I know you may think Trump is the second coming but he is inadequate for the job before him and has only treated chaos in our country
21
Every 72 hours will do NOTHING to prevent virus transmission. Nothing. If you are on a car with someone carrying the virus, given the six foot rule you are very likely to get sick. I am shocked by how many people are still touching the pole with bare hands. The subway system is going to be the transmission vector for the corona virus in NYC. It’s very likely no longer containable...
11
@Tex Murphy Yes, during rush hour, I can easily count 9 people within a 6 foot perimeter of me.
4
There is so much misinformation in these comments. The mortality rate is as follows; number of deaths divided by number of infected. Period.
3220/94301*100 = 3.4%
This is how mortality rate is calculated. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It's basic grade school math folks. It's an estimate because mortality is effected by location (how good your health care system is), your health, and a lot of other variables. We won't know the global numbers until this virus is over.
7
@Sue it's obviously not that simple since we don't really know how many people have been infected. The number of infected is a wild guess at this point...
13
Did you add the people who are dead and recovered to the denominator
1
@Sue It is sad that so many can't do basic arithmetic (think also of the Iowa caucuses). Some distance below, one fellow who calls himself "Southern Boy" (from "CSA", no less) claims that the currently estimated 3.4% death rate for CV completely contradicts what the "liberal mainstream media" has been telling us. He has confused total deaths with the rates of death from CV vs. regular flu and is completely clueless to that fact. Several people have already "liked" his post. Quite sad again.
Said "Southern Boy":
"Fatality rate worse than seasonal flu. This is the first time I heard this. All along we have been told by the liberal mainstream media that the flu-related fatalities are higher. Even the President was told this by the CDC and the NIH. Let's see some statistics. Let's see the science."
NYT, CDC: Please publish data on those infected, survived, died, complications, average hospitalization rate and stay, symptom characteristics, incubation period (if known), etc...
As a physician, I think it’s important the public knows as much about this virus and it’s clinical characteristics as it does about influenza.
Thank you in advance.
130
@Matters
Please repeat every 30 minutes, " nobody knows how many are affected since most get a mild case and are never reported." Where did you go to med school?
2
@clarity007
your obfuscation and prevarication is most tiring and of a greater threat to the public than any coronavirus—mild or otherwise.
3
@Matters One cannot publish data that one does not have. If you are a physician, surely you know this, have read the articles, followed the news available, and so forth. We don't have the testing apparatus available to us in the US, at this point in time. We cannot say with any sort of accuracy, how many people have the virus. Contact your state government for more accurate local information. The State Governments may be our only hope, in a time of ZERO leadership at the federal level. Prepare yourself.
2
Here in the UK, we only have 85 cases detected, but that is almost double how many there were yesterday, I suspect the exponential rise will continue for some time yet. Fortunately we don’t have a madman in charge (well we do, but he isn’t only concerned about an election in November), and people may be financially compensated if they isolate themselves. Scary times, but most of us will probably still be alive when it subsides.
16
Considering the US has only tested a few people -- most of whom, in WA, were apparently near death or already dead -- I'm completely unconvinced the death rate is whatever they say. They'd have to test everybody, or at the very least, everybody sick, to get even a rough-accurate idea of the mortality rate.
Currently, tons of milder cases -- probably the vast majority -- are not counted at all.
27
I think it’s important to stay informed and take necessary precautions. But I find headlines like this, while factually correct, irresponsible. Yes the information is there when you dig deeper, but so many people don’t and I think you need to do a better job.
1
@Howie Feinblatt
I beg to differ.
This is important new information.
Thank you, Free Press!
6
@Howie Feinblatt
Factually correct is irresponsible now?
I guess that's an improvement over factually correct is fake.
1
@Howie Feinblatt
You have been told how to avoid the flu for at least 25 years. Listen!
2
Seattle should be in lockdown status as was Wuhan and the epicenter of the Italian outbreak. Schools should be closed!. No large gatherings, mass testing and quarantine/isolation where needed. These measures will prevent unnecessary illness and death! I am an infection control nurse and have responded to three major outbreaks in tow California counties. Washington State is acting as if this will just go away. There is still time to act. Take measures now!
87
@AvidReader
I bet it would be had the president not called the virus a hoax. He'd have to back pedal and Trump's not capable of admitting he is wrong.
16
@AvidReader
that horse left the barn weeks ago.
6
While I agree that so far government in the Seattle area and in Washington in general is doing a more than horrible job in reaction to the virus, last time I looked, Cali had more confirmed cases than Washington. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
2
The numbers reported are grossly inaccurate, because they do not know who patient zero was. You cannot after-the-fact paste on a fatality rate, when people in the community already had it AND they refused to test so many.
The fatality rate is likely much lower. The problem with the reporting is that they should now be using the expression, "verified cases", because we all know that there has to be many more unverified cases out there. This has been confirmed by CDC officials in Washington and California.
7
What basis is there for saying it "transmits less easily" than the flu? I see no citation. Every estimate so far has put COVID-19's R0 at 2-3 times the level of seasonal influenza. Did anything change or is this a false statement?
53
*Dr. Margaret Harris, a W.H.O. spokeswoman, said the figure was a “crudely calculated” snapshot of the disease’s death rate globally, and was expected to “change over time, and vary from place to place.”
The figure does not include mild cases that do not require medical attention and is skewed by Wuhan, where the death rate is several times higher than elsewhere in China. It is also quite possible that there are many undetected cases that would push the mortality rate lower.*
Passing on shaky stats like this is not helpful. It encourages irrational behavior.
6
The WHO's update may already be out of date: Hong Kong's South China Morning Post is reporting today that Chinese researchers have established that the virus has evolved into 2 major types, one of which, type L, appears to be far more infectious than the other. Perhaps this explains the great discrepancies between infection rates in different areas? This could have major implications for how containment is managed.
12
@Cathie H
Even if there are two strains circulating, we need to plan for the worst case and hope for the best.
We can’t know ahead of time how many cases (of each) will be circulating here.
3
The WHO is an entirely useless organization that has fumbled and releases totally fictitious figures of mortality when there is scant data. By now, all schools should have been closed and folks who can work from home, do so, to enable our organizations to think and plan. But obviously we too seem to weigh humans against dollars and the latter wins resoundingly. I suggest to all Americans, that the time has come to plan for one’s own families. Stay clean, wash hands, use common sense and above all, do not share food or drinks with family or co-workers. If your kid is unwell, treat it as you would a cold, but let them rest at home. Your child may not suffer, but if exposed to the sarscov2 virus, might spread it to older teachers at school. For folks visiting doctors, dentists, ophthalmologists etc. stay away unless you are dying. The medical community seems quite unable to get a handle on how to curb transmission from their facilities to the public. It is singularly disappointing to see this slow lumbering approach, inability to project for the worst case scenario and hope for the best, by the American administration.
10
@Meena
WHO is part of the United Nations. It has a budget of $2.7bn of which the US contributes $0.5bn.
The WHO is made up of its members. The WHO is only as good as its members.
5
@Meena
All schools in the entire world should close? Even in countries without a case?
2
The World Health Organization is what we have. They have done tremendous good, in that they’ve eliminated small pox in the world and are on the way to eliminating polio. Keep in mind the figures they have are from countries that may be not reporting their statistics correctly either through lack of testing or for other reasons. You’re other suggestions for trying to slow the spread of the virus, however are right on.
3
basic takeaway: If you're under 55 in good health you're probably going to be fine even if you catch it. (you still can spread it to others who won't be fine and could end up in intensive care or dead) Be prepared that you might be stuck during or after trips and unable to return home. If you're older than 60, be cautious about crowds, wash your hands, disinfect all faucets and door knobs, and don't touch your face. Hospitals can be overwhelmed.
5
@Sharon You're more likely to be fine, but there's still a good chance of having a severe case, and you are still at risk of dying. Everyone should be avoiding crowds and washing hands, because that's the only way to slow down the spread so hospitals don't get overwhelmed.
5
@Katy There's absolutely no evidence for your statement that there's a "good chance of having a severe case." In fact, there's decent evidence to suggest the exact opposite.
1
This is why people are panic buying and stores are running out of toilet paper, because of articles like this. We have known the mortality rate since the first case in the U.S. That is not "news." Stop trying to scare people.
4
@Jen
People are panicking because they’re scared. But they need the info, which is telling them to “stock up.”
I’ve been in the stores. Yes, there are crowds.
Nevertheless I have not seen one panicked shopper.
6
@TheraP
So that's why the two stores I went to last night to get basic groceries were out of toilet paper?
Mob mentality IS the issue. Not the virus.
3
For some of us the issue is not so much fear of getting it, it’s fear of being quarantined at home or abroad. It’s Spring Break season in two weeks. Many of us have plans. The airlines thus far are not reimbursing. That’s a lot of money down the drain. Yet who wants to be stuck in a hotel room for 2 weeks? Or have problems at the airport or not be allowed back?
35
@agmnw
Welcome to reality. Life just interferes with the best laid plans.
This announcement is so irresponsible from WHO, and I'm surprised NY Times is publishing this headline and burying this very important piece of information:
"The figure does not include mild cases that do not require medical attention and is skewed by Wuhan, where the death rate is several times higher than elsewhere in China. It is also quite possible that there are many undetected cases that would push the mortality rate lower."
Saying the mortality rate is 3% as a headline then following up with, "oh yeah, but that doesn't count all the people who basically experienced a bad cold" is extremely irresponsible in the context of the panic occurring tight now.
The fact is this virus has been circulating for weeks in the US and the only reason we're catching some of the cases is by chance - someone with a non-serious cold/flu happens to go to a doc with access to testing.
16
@Kas Nope, we're catching the cases because the Seattle Flue study got so alarmed by all the pneumonia they were seeing that they found a loophole to let them test people who hadn't traveled from outbreak areas.
2
There are a lot of comments that doubt the WHO's fatality rate because of this notion that there are a lot of mild/asymptomatic cases at the base of this iceberg and the fatal cases we see and count are just the tip of this iceberg. I would however, direct people to search out interviews with the WHO's expert Bruce Aylward who does not believe this to be the case. He was at ground zero in Wuhan and reports that the Chinese performed 360,000 tests and he did not see an iceberg. I understand that serological tests are the gold standard (which has been created by scientists in Singapore) but we should probably listen to an expert who has seen data and studies that we casual readers do not have access to.
29
@Veronica T Remember though, that the Wuhan hospitals were completely overwhelmed. Remember the 'hospital built in 10 days?' That means that cases with mild symptoms would be turned away and never tested. So the issue is that we won't know what % of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization vs mild cases that one could survive without medical help. We won't know that until widespread testings become available.
If South Korea and Britain have drive through testing, why don't we have it in the USA?
32
@Si Campbell , Good question. And why we don’t have universal healthcare here?
3
@Si Campbell people forget the US is not a first world country.
44
Seriously everyone needs to relax. Keep living your life! There are tons of viruses every year. Just act like this is normal flu season. Wash your hands and cough or sneeze into your hands. Everyone will be fine. The elderly are always at risk during flu season so check on your family members that are 65 and older and help them if they come down with something. The cancellation of schools and events and travel all seems too extreme! Nothing good can come from isolation and hoarding toilet paper!!! I mean come on people.
2
And the fact that millions of Americans can’t afford to see a doctor or stay home when they are sick is nothing to worry about.
15
@Mary clay boland
I think you mean "don't cough/sneeze into your hands".
Otherwise, I mostly agree.
5
@Mary clay boland I agree that nobody should panic! However, from a public health perspective, you're being far too blase. The flu kills between 12,000-61,000 people in the US each year (depending on the year), and COVID-19 is possibly 20 times as deadly (or 30 if you believe the WHO). That means 240,000 to 1.2 million people could die in the US alone if this spreads as widely as the flu. That's why we need to stop this if we can!
7
America is disturbingly unprepared. Dear Leader Trump has said he has done an incredible job and should be praised.
13
@Bob Guthrie Since we are so unprepared as a nation, it would be helpful if you would enlighten us with your suggestions regarding the steps we should be taking.
3
@Bob Guthrie
You do realize that the two largest country's that world's supply of medicine, medical supplies, vaccine's, including the ingredients to make those things have ordered exporting those things to other country's?
Yep! China and India, who supply the world, have ordered stops to exporting critical supplies of medical supplies, medication, ingredients to other countries!
With the exception of producing coal... exactly what is it that Australia can make during a crisis that doesn't rely on China and India?
(Don't worry, the United States is just as vulnerable and the majority of our citizens are too ignorant to recognize the problem - just like Australia!)
5
@Richard B
(1) Get a time machine and go back and stop Trump from eviscerating the science agencies in the federal government.
(2) Upon return, proceed as would a normal first-world nation.
3
When 2900 people died on 9/11, conservative Americans lost their mind, started two decades-long wars costing a trillion dollars, and eagerly surrendered their constitutional freedoms with The Patriot Act. But when 2900 are dead from a spreading pandemic, the reaction on the right is “Meh, you gotta roll with the punches.” The rightwing mind is like spaghetti in a blender.
144
What mind?!!
1
@Jackson They have died els
ewhere, now just at 11 in the US, and the problem is representative of what could happen here.
2
A simple thought: wear gloves when in public places.
7
It’s pitiful, laughable is too strong a word, that you Americans spend so much on the “war against terrorism” yet you don’t have even the basic infrastructure to test against corona and other viruses.
It has no doubt spread throughout the population but you are simply unaware of it.
On the positive side, this may be the end of the man who once claimed he could stand on 5th Avenue and shoot some and that nobody could do anything about it.
Good luck!
68
@Barry I doubt if this hurts Trump. It is someone else's fault, never his. Why do you think he appointed Pence to lead the effort? Pence doesn't matter, he can't help the CDC in the slightest. If the fight goes well, Trump is victorious and takes credit. Otherwise it was all Pence's fault, and Trump is not to blame.
Trump is never ever to blame. It's always someone else's fault.
8
@Barry we have 0 infrastructure... Flying back to NYC the only place in the US that I feel had any protocol in place for emergencies.
3
This information is somewhat difficult to parse. The 3.4% mortality rate, is this reported cases or just those that require medical attention. The article states that it is both. If it is just those which require medical attention, then from an earlier article we know that is just 20% of the total cases as 80% are mild.
So, if the 3.4% mortality rate is conditional on the 20% of the non-mild cases the total mortality rate is 3.4 x .2 + 0 x .8 = 0.7 %
Still much higher than the 0.1 % mortality of seasonal flu but not panic inducing like 3.4
5
@Rob 3.4% is fatal cases/confirmed cases.
That was the rate in Wuhan, outside Wuhan the rate has been lower, perhaps 1%. Most of the difference is medical attention, as the hospitals in Wuhan were overloaded. Also, probably more mild cases were missed in Wuhan as testing resources were very limited.
About 5% of cases require medical intervention to save lives. If the hospital is overloaded, the death rate will rise. If there is no health care, the death rate might be over 5% and perhaps even higher.
Also age, smoking and sex matters.
Older people have a much higher death rate. Africa has a fairly young population, so will have a lower death rate, even with no health care.
Want to survive this and smoke? Quit today. TODAY!
As is common with similar diseases, male death rate is higher than female death rate.
2
@Phil
In Italy, the hospitalization rate is 46%
"Deaths outside China exceeded those inside the country for the first time since the start of the outbreak."
Ummm.... something doesn't add up. According to the NYT map and numbers in the article, there are ~80K known cases in China, but <15K outside of China. How can the number of deaths outside China be greater than inside if the mortality rate is not substantially higher than 3% outside of China? We keep hearing that the mortality rate in Wuhan is higher than elsewhere...
This makes no sense. Someone needs to think before they publish. Either the statement is wrong or your map is hopelessly out of date.
4
@Miker Data quality isn't uniform.
And computing the death rate from raw cases and deaths ignores all the dynamics.
Iran has had far more deaths than expected from the number of cases. 2,922 cases and 92 deaths. A bad case of religious and political disconnect with reality, see Trump for similar. Iran didn't test, so didn't see cases until it was clear people were dying.
South Korea has more cases and fewer deaths. 5,621 cases and 35 deaths. Drive through testing centers. A population that gets it. A leadership that can find a clue even on a bad day. Unlike the Republican party. To quote Eagle's Hotel California, "we haven't had that spirit here since 1969."
3
I saw a comment yesterday from a Seattleite saying everyone has just continued about their daily business acting like this isn't happening in their community. I live in central Washington, 3 hours east of Seattle and the same can be said for my community. This was and is not the case in Wuhan. They locked their cities down in China. So either they overreacted to this or the US is in for a world of hurt. I myself stocked up on some essentials and have been trying to limit social contacts and luckily have the ability to work from home if needed. I
don't see this ending well. Let us hope that this isn't as deadly as the WHO is saying it is because this country is grossly unprepared.
42
@Raydeohed "hope" is not a strategy. I work for a large financial institution and US employees are still routinely flying all over the country for meetings and conferences, business as usual. As you said, I don't see this ending well.
6
We also have a public data transparency problem. I have been very impressed at South Korea's public data releases--daily summarized updates (breaking down number tested, in progress, negatives, positives; if positives, recovered, deceased, currently isolated; separate breakdowns by region, known cluster, and age and sex). They also release additional info about twice a day. The reports are here: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030.
Compare with the U.S. CDC's page: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html.
10
@JC Our CDC page says there are only 60 confirmed cases in US. That is blatantly false. A quick Goole gives you this figure from multiple sources: As of March 04, 2020 at 15:00 GMT, there have been 129 confirmed cases and 9 deaths due to coronavirus COVID-19 in the United States.
The lies and incompetence of this president is through the roof. They can't even keep a website up to date.
19
@Raydeohed
Check the asterisk sign as that indicates they are not counting the cases from China or the ones from the Diamond Princess. (almost 50 people)
1
I do not understand people who call for universal health care. What would immediately happen in this country is a two-tiered health care system. The wealthy would have access to great private care, and the rest of us poor saps, including myself, would be waiting is long lines, overcrowded offices, fighting a huge, clumsy system. As if Madonna, or Joe Biden would sit next to me in the same clinic. It will never happen.
I also find the people who use this virus as just another excuse to bash Trump really hard to bear --- can we not even work together on an issue as concerning as this?
Thirdly, China needs to be rebuked by the rest of the world. This is not their first time around with a deadly virus outbreak based on unsanitary practices. They need to get it together and clean up their collective system. Bird flu, SARS, COVID-19. What next??!!?
Last but not least, the outbreak is scary. Especially when a number of people who have gotten seriously ill don't seem to have "underlying conditions". Not to mention the speed the virus has spread around the world. This is a very important wake up call. We need to get it together on a world wide basis and really have a plan going forward.
3
@susan m
We already have a health system that is probably more like a three tiered system. The very wealthy can go to the top hospitals anywhere in the country and, if necessary, pay top dollar for care. The next tier is people with decent health insurance who will still have to pay the deductibles and copays. Finally there are those uninsured who may or may not get care depending on whether they have a local non-profit hospital willing to treat them. So why is this system better than what most advanced countries have?
10
@susan m
Animal to human virus is nothing new. There were at least 3 major outbreaks in the U.S. (76, 88, 09). Maybe we should look at some of our own unsanitary practices?
The irony here is that during our last outbreak we just didn't deal with it at all and the estimate of deaths globally is in the 100s of thousands.
2
So your server, your Uber driver, your hairdresser, your yoga instructor, your child’s nanny, your mothers home health aide, your grocer’s cashier, your retail sales clerk, your Amazon delivery man , and many of your neighbors can’t afford to see a doctor, nor can they afford to stay home when they are sick.
And you think free health care for all—provided by every first world nation on earth for decades—is bad. Expensive for profit “healthcare “ that millions can’t afford, good.
7
i don't see rush limbaugh volunteering to be infected to potentially provide antibodies for a vaccine.
just like the common cold?
i think not.
9
The time has come for the American people to save themselves. We need a national strike, except for doctors and people making medical supplies. For 2 days we stay home. We demand test kits, we demand masks, we demand a cough ban on subways, buses, and restaurants. We don't feel safe and wishing it away wont help, there are ways to fight an epidemic. This is a worldwide epidemic. Somebody take charge and demand a national strike. How hard is it to make test kits. Take money from the military budget to fight this war right here, they have plenty, 800 billion worth, we have enough fighter planes we need masks, research, protective equipment for doctors and medical staff. We can do this, where is the leadership?
18
@Lonnie
A great way to strike - in an epidemic!
Brilliant!
i'm pleased that the WHO is providing some information that should be reliable. deadlier - bad. not as easily transmitted - good.
unlike trump, who believes that a vaccine could be available in a few months - "we're working very hard" - that won't help now because it is not a treatment.
the WHO information may help those in leadership positions to take steps to contain the virus and reduce the spread and save lives that way RIGHT NOW. even if the steps appear draconian - like shutting schools or factories - the choice must be made that provides the greatest good immediately.
10
Is anyone else confused by the WHO saying (and Times reporting) that the coronavirus does not transmit as efficiently as the flu? From what I've read, the R0 of flu is around 1.3, while the R0 for COVID-19 is somewhere between 2 and 3? How does that make COVID-19 less efficient at transmission? Doesn't having a larger R0 make it the more successful virus in terms of transmisson? I'm sure there's some epidemiological nuance I'm missing here. Can someone please enlighten me?
62
@dandrew I'm with you. The headline completely contradicts everything we've been told, but the article glosses over it with no clarification.
12
@dandrew
My understanding is that Covid-19 takes about 7 days, on average, for a person to infect another person, whereas the flu takes 1.3 days. The R0 is higher for Covid-19, but it takes longer for those infections to occur.
I don't know how to post a link, but if you Google the title of this article, it will give some good info: "Cryptic Transmission of Novel Coronavirus Revealed by Genomic Epidemiology."
6
@dandrew , The data you are citing seem accurate, influenza virus though have incubation period of about 2 days, SARS-CoV-2, about 5 days.This is not necessarily good, as apparently one can be infectious and spread the bug before symptoms appear.
8
I don't understand why nursing homes throughout the country aren't instituting procedures to protect their residents from possible introduction of this virus. Even in areas that have not yet had outbreaks of Covid-19, all visitors to nursing homes should at least be limited to regularly-disinfected "visiting areas" and possibly provided protective gowns, gloves and masks. Such procedures could help protect this most vulnerable population.
14
@Freedean There are a lot of things i don't understand, preemptive action is the key. No visitors to nursing homes while this is happening. And any worker who even has the sniffles stays home.
4
@Lonnie
Nursing homes are already notorious for their staff shortages. So just how would this all work if the workers with sniffles stay home. They are often only paid minimum wage anyway! the no visitors I can understand.
5
Mortality rate is important factor, but not the only one which is worrisome. High morbidity rate, with many patients needed Intensive Care unit admissions or ventilatory support is also important. It will strain healthcare systems in many countries and take away resources from other medical problems which are more endemic (or epidemic, like current flue season).The rate of Covid-19 infection is much higher among healthcare workers and they will be at least temporarily removed from workforce, further straining the system. Our hospitals are already in resource saving mode, due to predicted shortages of Personal Protective Devices and other medical supplies, mostly made in China. So let’s not get to excited weather mortality rate for Covid-19 is 1 or 4 %, this disease is almost certainly going to have big negative impact on our lives.
67
@Professor Lilloman
Here, here !!!!!
4
We already knew that the Coronavirus fatality rate is higher than the flu.
19
@Lyn Robins The reports until now have been that the fatality rate was about 2%. All one had to do was look at the numbers of 80,000+ infected, and 3,000 dead to know that 2% was a gross understatement. Finally they are getting someone speaking who can do the simple math.
3
@Michael Not true. The problem is the 80,000 number is not reliable. How many have it but it's not "confirmed"/known because people basically think they have a cold? No one knows.
1
Numbers from China are meaningless. They fabricate data at their will. They mislead the world.
16
Our numbers aren’t any more accurate. In fact, they’re arguably less accurate given how far behind we are on testing for the virus.
12
@Fitoto ha... The CDC removed the number of testing from their site. We could learn from the Chinese.. They mobilised quickly.
5
@Fitoto So look at South Korea. Or Italy.
A virus causes truths than can't be covered up with fabricated data. As Iran has also found out, and is finding out. And as the USA will find out.
3
I don't mind the dying. It is inevitable. I just find Trump's involvement in it mildly irritating.
236
@Bob Guthrie
Wow. Strong statement!
Just for clarity, are you saying that our world needs more PM's like Australia's Scott Morrison?
Let's take a closer look, shall we?
Against same sex marriage
Against Climate Refugees
Against Investigating Crimes In Refugee Camps
Takes Hawaii vacation as continent burns
Would take vacation in Atlantic if Tsunami Hit Pacific
Would take vacation in South America if Sydney had major earthquake
Loves Coal
Lets not forget the sports grant program fiasco!
Minus 10% approval rating!
Perhaps the world should follow your lead and say:
"I don't mind the dying. It is inevitable. I just find Morrison's involvement in it mildly irritating!"
5
The former Westerdam and Diamond Princess passengers should be self-isolating instead of rushing to the media to report their outrage over revoked invitations to social events and questions/comments while out in public. The recent case of the person released from quarantine in San Antonio and having to return because of a false negative suggests everyone should add a layer of caution to “what WHO and the CDC said” because we are all in uncharted territory with this disease.
42
@Lynn in DC
I respectfully disagree - when it comes to viruses and disease, we are not in uncharted territory. We have been repeatedly warned by doctors, scientists, News Media, Hollywood and Sci-Fi writers for years!
1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic
Swine Flu
SARS
MERVS
Ebola
H1N1 Avian Flu (which has never gone away!)
The problem is that people have heard doomsday warnings so often that they stopped listening. People won't even look in the mirror and take personal responsibility - instead, they want to blame elected leaders (as if they could have actually done anything of substance that would satisfy everybody!)
Are we ready for a really serious Pandemic? Nope!
Meteor strike? Nope!
Is California or the West Coast ready for a massive earthquake? Nope!
Think a new Administration would do any better? Nope!
Think that manufactures will rush out a vaccine in 6 months, 12 months, 18 months or 24 months? Nope!
(If a vaccine is discovered, the manufacturers will stockpile the vaccine and refuse to release it until they are 100% indemnified - and most of the vaccines will be made in China, India or Europe - so new leaders are not going to change that fact!)
Since it is the secondary infections that kill and not the virus... how many people are up to date on the CDC's recommended vaccines? Few are!
The sad reality is that a lot of people against vaccines have no sense of personal or social responsibility - and which also explains why people were outraged and complained!
The article says it is "the biggest epidemic out break outside of China" a epidemic is more local or regional, this virus is a pandemic. From an epidemiologist's point of view, the Black Death in Europe and AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa are pandemics rather than epidemics. Covid-19 a pandemic not an epidemic.
20
American coronavirus czar Vice President Michael Richard Pence infamously proclaimed that he was ' a Christian, a conservative and Republican in that order.'
Neither prayer nor income tax cuts nor military spending increases will effectively address nor resolve the biological health medical epidemic science coronavirus crisis threat.
Instead of watching the economy aka the stock market and the partisan political election year polls the American people are focused on the arithmetic of our fellow citizens who are or will likely become infected with serious coronavirus illness and/or death in the coming days.
Pence's boss President Donald John Trump,Sr.can't 'fake news' nor ' hoax' his way out of coronavirus. Both of them are in the age demographic most endangered by coronavirus.
Pence and Trump could and should go straight to the Seattle Washington State area American heart of the coronavirus crisis with their wives to get a close compassionate comforting look and exposure at what their fellow Americans are fearing and following.
12
@Blackmamba
Even better, now would be the perfect time for Trump to display his incredible negotiating skills in person with the leaders of Iran.
7
Nature working benignly and without malice despite the way mankind treats her.
3
@Loud and Clear
I wouldn't exactly say this is benign but it is without malice.
6
Scientists, please say it simply without long explanations of statistics, etc. Should I be afraid? Should I cancel my spring break travel plans?
2
Seriously, we need basic information! For example - Is It dangerous to take my kids to Las Vegas to see the Blue Man Group perform? I’m not a mathematician or a scientist, but there are more people like me than you. Someone please just tell us!
1
@CS
Go to the WHO website for this kind of information. I don't think you'll find any specific information on individual event venues. Anywhere...
There's two separate public issues: the spread of the disease, and the treatment of the illness.
The spread of the disease may be slowed by normal flu-prevention behavior. Wash hands, don't touch your face, stay home if you feel sick. But just like the flu, the spread of the disease can't be stopped because it is infectious in asymptomatic people. And, the personal and social economic cost of a one-month global quarantine is simply too high, even if it was feasible and even if it would stop the ultimate spread of the virus (and it isn't and it wouldn't).
So, as a society, we should treat it like the flu.
As for treating the sickened, that is where we can and must do better. We need to devote resources to help people survive, instead of treating health care like the market for new cars or housecleaning services. Everyone deserves care, as a human right.
12
@Sam I Am Actually, with a fatality rate that much higher than the flu, there's simply no way that society will accept treating this like the flu. A million dead in the US, for example, is more than enough motivation to choose quarantine.
23
....alas, in war-torn and deeply dysfunctional societies, we may never know how many will die of this disease. But it will take its toll in those places at unthinkable rates. And it will not likely be the last novel infection to develop and spread quickly. Simplified ecosystems and shifting coastlines emanating from extreme weather and climate change will move millions of humans and animals and their viral and bacterial residents into new arrangements, quickly. This is a harbinger of what is to come. We, as a species, can probably deal with it in its early stages if we band together and understand these forces. But, look who is in charge of the nations with the power and resources to make things happen: Trump, Pence and their band of bozos in the USA and abroad a dogs breakfast of nationalists, racists and anti-science types around the globe.
45
How can you calculate a Fatality Rate when you are not even sure how many people have been infected? This is a bit premature.
15
@Jose They are calculating it based on the places where there has been extensive testing, tracking of those exposed, and treatment.
15
@Jose
This comes directly from the TOP of WHO. These folks are pros! They have statisticians and experts calculating things like this.
3.4% fatality rate is what we’re going to be using at the moment. And they wouldn’t be announcing it if they did not have pretty good data to do so!
How they calculate it? Statistics can take what information is available and a likely estimate of how many cases are unknown to get their figure.
I feel pretty certain they have announced this as important information, on the basis of which nations can plan what is needed to fight this virus around the world.
5
@Jose
A rough estimate is the number of deaths/number of cases x 100. Of course this is in areas where the virus is well established. We won't know if 3.4% applies to the US until there is sufficient testing for COVID-19.
Just think if the 45 BILLION for Trump's wall was used to prepare for this, treat and test everyone for free (like China), mobilize/employ massive contact tracing teams, obtain or make personal protective equipment, help hospitals develop emergency plans, start drive-by testing centers, actually deliver testing kits, etc, etc....Just imagine how much better off we would all feel and BE!
15
“It’s very clear that the actions taken in China have almost brought to an end their first wave of infections,” said Professor Benjamin Cowling, an infectious disease expert at Hong Kong University. That says it all.
And the death rate excluding city of Wuhan is about 0.7%, which is comparable to or below the death rate of Influenza flu.
Most importantly is that supply chain production is coming back. Foxconn, the biggest supplier of Apple, said that production in China is back amidst all the new government safety regulations under the Covid-19 threat. Stock markets will anticipate that.
@Usok, just for grins, the death rate based on known cases in the U.S. right now is over 7%.
Shuffling around the cases, excluding this and including that, in order to make it look better for Apple's supply chain isn't going to do it. The WHO says the global death rate is 3.4% which is about 30 times that of the flu. Trust them, they've been at these calculations a lot longer than the rest of us.
When Apple first started moving its supply chain to China, there were a lot of questions and outcry from their fans and customers, who had thought that being made in the USA was a matter of pride for the company and were proven wrong by Steve Jobs. When much much later, Barack Obama asked Jobs about moving it back to the U.S. Jobs quite famously talked down to him and said not no but....
Now the wisdom of having their supply chain in China and nowhere else is being re-evaluated. Perhaps Apple will suffer, perhaps its fans will have to invent excuses again. They are movement-based just like MAGAs and Bernie Bros, and will undoubtedly create a reality in which all the decisions ever made by Apple were pure genius.
But when they start messing with whether or not a global pandemic is fatal, they will butt up against reality. And that may not faze them, but it will damage their reputations.
3
@Usok I believe the death rate for the flu is .001% with 30,000 dying across this winter and 31 million infected.
@cycledancing I stand corrected. That should have been .1%.
A friend of mine recently suggested that Statistics be required study in any college core curriculum. Maybe that is enough said, though I would add at least read “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver before writing pieces such as this.
5
@Nick Wheeler
Statistics as a requirement? That is a joke because many students cant even calculate a weighted average. The DOE needs to enforce academic standards before we can make Statistics mandatory.
5
@Nick Wheeler, oh, if one could only hope that journalists would learn any of the mathematical disciplines past the 2nd grade level!
Someday maybe they'll put MathJax into the code for these comment sections. Here's hoping!
1
Whether this ends up being as bad as many worry or not it should be a strong wake- up call . A pandemic can strike any year. Odds are it will, if not this year, then another. We DIDN’T have a clear protocol for travel restrictions, having reliable and sufficient tests ready to hit the ground running ( frustrated doctors are seeing patients with symptoms and pleading for tests) , making sure respirators are in adequate supply ( or even minimum supply) at many hospitals), having protocols for school and work closings, etc.
We can do better.
14
As a species, we have come to expect virtually anthing to be ready quickly. It reminds me of the phrase "I want it now!". My sister died of amyloidosis; an very rare disease (4 or 5 in 1,000,000, usually male). Her case was (literally) 1 in a million. My ex-wife was recently diagnosed with MS. She is still quite young. Neither have cures. In fact, much more is not known than is with both diseases. There are so many people working on treatments for COVID-19, I am confident an preventative innoculation (or a cure) will be found relatively soon.
4
Mayor de blasio, Governor Cuomo how about a few common sense ideas.
No hording. Certain things like hand sanitizers and clorox wipes for example should not be horded. I mean its a simple rule, how about implementing it.
If you have a cough you stay home, stay off the buses, stay off the Train. I am surprised the MTA hasn't instructed their workers to walk out of this is not implemented
buy as many N95 masks as you can every New Yorkers gets one and wears one, open a factory in New York to make masks, believe me people will purchase them. it might not stop all Corona but it will stop 30 percent at least, and save some lives. If its true that Corona doesn't spread as easy as the flu( i don't believe it) this is the first bit of good news.
There are so many things that can be done, but it seems like nothing at all is being done, nothing preemptive that is.
The most maddening thing about this whole thing is the lack of fight. The Mayor and Governors hands seem to be tied, afraid to disrupt the economy, but do you know what will really disrupt the economy-an Epidemic.
Believe me if you begin to fight this virus the way the Japanese, and South Koreans are, they will soon have their countries on the way to recovery, believe me if you create cough bans in grocery stores, on buses, etc, people will cheer. Let declare war on Corona, right now we seem to be welcoming it. Lets fight.
Please everyone like this comment if you agree.
7
"Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director general, said in a news conference in Geneva that Covid-19 was deadlier than the seasonal flu but did not transmit as easily."
Even from the beginning, it was obvious that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was much higher than the seasonal flu but the WHO was underestimating the risk. even the transmissibility is as bad as the seasonal flu according to some studies.
The problem with the coronavirus is that there are a lot of things even the scientists do not know about the behavior of this virus but we do know a lot about the seasonal flu, many people have some level of immunity to the flu virus.
3
@Padman One thing we know about the "seasonal flu" is that it is NOT one organism that causes it. Every year the strain of flu virus that circulates widely can be different, and, there can be multiple strains in wide circulation simultaneously. This is why when vaccines for each season's flu are planned out it is with the knowledge of what strain of flu is LIKELY to be the predominant one. There is no one certainty that can guide us. There isn't one organism causing seasonal flu.
7
@Michele
Viruses can mutate and change genetically that is why we have to come up with a new flu vaccine every year, the same thing can happen with COVID-19.
With seasonal flu, we all have some level of immunity but not with this new virus
1
@Padman Yes they do mutate. And one would expect COVID 19 to do so. Given that this is a novel virus infecting humans, there is still much to learn about it. But a public that is relatively uneducated about science doesn't like uncertainty. They want to hear a definitive answer where there isn't one to reduce their anxiety about this new unknown threat.
1
To err is human, though I believe this administration may go down as the most corrupt and incompetent in history. But the real lesson here is about the importance of universal health care in addressing pandemics. When those without health care seek no medical assistance a virus will spread more readily. When those with high deductibles seek no medical assistance, a virus will spread more readily. The rich will huddle in their filthy penthouses afraid to let their maids in. They won't go outside afraid of exposure. Their favorite restaurants will close because their rich patrons will be afraid their waiters might be diseased. An economic downturn will be much worse than it would have been if the government was prepared to deal with pandemics and the public was able to seek treatment. Maybe the 1 percent will see the benefits of universal coverage and loosen their purse strings.
64
Oh give me a break. 3.4% of "reported" cases have died. But most cases are mild--young children often have no symptoms, for example--and surely there are many many unreported cases. There are probably more unreported cases than there are reported cases.
So the death rate is much lower than 3.4%. Is the head of WHO incompetent?
4
@tanstaafl That is the definition of a case fatality rate in epidemiological circumstances: Number of Deaths / Number of Reported Incidences. Every single disease "technically" has a fatality rate of lower than what percentage is indicated.
Could I have gotten and survived the flu this year, but had such mild symptoms that I didn't even realize I was sick? Yes. The fact remains, however, that these are the only numbers we can rely on when there is much gray area. The WHO is very much competent, I think the definition of a case fatality rate is not well communicated to or known amongst the general public.
12
@AM They don't test 40 million people for flu every year nor have 40 million people reported flu symptoms this year in the US. That's incorrect.
2
@AM The WHO is failing to communicate properly, and so is NYT with its scaremongering 3.4% fatality rate, which most laypeople would take to mean that 3.4% of those infected will die. If the head of WHO were competent he would clearly discuss this with the public, along with the fact that a huge majority of the deaths occur among elderly. He should be urging governments to safeguard nursing homes and other areas where the elderly congregate. Instead, he scaremongers by stating that the death rate is much higher than the flu.
Not true with the 1918 flu, which hit young adults with healthy immune systems the hardest.
2
Fatality rate worse than seasonal flu. This is the first time I heard this. All along we have been told by the liberal mainstream media that the flu-related fatalities are higher. Even the President was told this by the CDC and the NIH. Let's see some statistics. Let's see the science.
4
@Southern Boy They may be all over the map with their estimates of the mortality rates, but still always way higher than the flu. The rates mentioned for flu are around 0.1%. I have seen the papers talk about rates for Covid-19 ranging from 1% to 3%, ALWAYS at least 10X higher than the flu. Facts matter.
20
You grossly misunderstand what you are reading. The number of deaths from seasonal flu is much higher, in the multiple thousands, but the rate of death per infected case is much lower. Please don’t conflate numbers and science with your favorite bugaboos.
11
@Southern Boy
Statistics are not a snap of the fingers matter like sports stats.
The question has nothing to do do with politics.
It is just a matter of the time takes to do reliable science.
No offense intended.
2
A very large percentage of our common use medical supplies come from where? They come from China. We are having a trade war with China. How does that foster international cooperation when such cooperation is the only way to beat this virus?
The WHO is not Chinese state propaganda. A three percent death rate is highly significant. Downplaying it by stating it mainly affects older people is no comfort if it infects your parents.
The virus is out there and it is spreading. No way to stop that. Free societies are not going to place entire communities on lockdown like they have done in China. As with previous flu like pandemics, they tend to wane in the summer and come roaring back in the fall when cold and flu season returns.
What we need is a vaccine. That is at least one year away. That means next fall and winter could be a time of widespread infection. That would be just in time for the election which is why Trump down playing this now. The 'media hoax' line will only go so far when the hospital beds are filled.
5
Aargh, that is not a death or mortality rate; it is a case-fatality rate, i.e., the rate of deaths among people with the disease. Fix the lead, please.
17
Italy has just ordered the closing of all universities and schools in the entire country until mid-March.
14
@Ann P Yes, and odd that this article focuses on France for the European example. Just one of the many many weaknesses in this reporting.
@Ann P Thanks, Ann, and love to Chianti from the US. I'm so disappointed that I may not get to visit there this May as planned, but wish you all well.
1
Please break down the severity and death rate by age groups. My understanding is that children are by and large safe and that healthy adults under age 65 have mild cases not requiring hospitalization. Having said that, if young asymptomatic people are killing the elderly, that’s still terrible.
3
Elderly with compromised immune systems are dying (in small numbers of coronavirus)? Not surprising. Almost all are due to die of some cause or another relatively soon. That is called life.
@agmnw
I have a 41 year old daughter in a hospital isolation ward awaiting the results of a Corona virus test.
I tank God for the hospital and the tests that are being done.
My only wishes, other than the survival of my child, are that the maximum of others exposed can be treated similarly and that politicians should stop commenting about matters in which they have no expertise.
9
I am a scientist. We do not have accurate figures for transmission rates and therefore cannot have accurate mortality rates. We will not have more accurate figures for some time.
My take on this is that we need to be doing everything we can to contain the spread. We should consider closing our transport networks and effectively shut the economy down until the spread dramatically ceases. Otherwise, the weakest and most elderly (and the wisest) in our society will die.
49
@Reasonable
Well I am not a scientist but I would think the cruise ship with 600+ infected will eventually give us a better grasp of the mortality of this virus. At least for the age group that go on cruises.
4
The W.H.O. takes a “crudely constructed” number for the death rate of the new corona virus and then compares it to better known figure for influenza and makes a conclusion that corona is more deadly. They need to retake statistics. They have a good idea of the deaths caused by the virus but no clue as to how many infections there have been. There aren’t enough test kits to determine that, and a vast majority of those infected have mild conditions (80%) that are not likely reported. It may be more deadly and it may not be. It may be less deadly. We won’t know for years.
2
Flu actual mortality rates aren't better known.
They also do not include, and never will include, those with mild or no symptoms which will never be reported.
9
@J.R. Exactly. I imagine they have a good handle on the # of deaths (nominator) and probably at least a factor of 10X underestimation of the number infected (denominator), so their estimate of the mortality rate is probably a 10X overestimation. Journalists have never been known for their math and stats skills!
I don't know why the WHO said such a thing that we all know will be sensationalized in the headlines. This is the epidemiological equivalent of Bill-Gates-walks-into-a-bar-and-on-average-everyone's-a-millionaire. You can't include the numerous early cases in China in the global average and arrive at a meaningful death rate because they are not representative of what's happening in the rest of the world.
3
@ Jonny Walker
When the dust has settled on this, 0.6% will still be too high. For the simple reason that these numbers can only explode if there are many undetected cases. If all were identified and quarantined, the virus could no longer spread.
That being said, you also have to take the lag time from diagnosis to death into your consideration. At some point, the new cases will level off, but deaths will continue to increase for another couple of weeks until equilibrium is reached. Then we will know what the actual death rate is, assuming 100% of cases have been identified.
Which will still not be the case.
I think it is safe to assume that this virus has already disseminated throughout the general population and is mixed with all the cases of the flu and the common cold. It is just the (elaborate, time consuming and rate limiting) testing that is catching up to it - slowly.
Once we have an ELISA and no longer have to rely on PCR, we will have better numbers. ELISA will detect who has gone through the infection in the past, PCR will only detect who current has it. Both numbers are required to calculcate an accurate fatality rate.
6
@Captain Nemo I completely agree with you. I think the number of actual infections has been underestimated 100 fold. I know at least 20 people who I believe have had it (I own a second home in Milan). I believe I had it in late January/early February. Not having the antibody test is troublesome. For me, if I KNEW I had already had it I would be much more relaxed. But back to your point. W.H.O. should basically just shut up.
Perhaps I missed it in the plethora of comments and articles to date....
Is our government looking into a secondary wave of testing to test for covid-19 antibodies/immunity titers (as opposed to active infection)?
Given that the symptoms are similar to more benign seasonal flus, it would be helpful to know if one has already had and overcome the Covid-19 virus. That would give people with immunity an opportunity to volunteer to help out (whether it’s in the realm of a skilled healthcare practitioner, elder care, airline employee, or simply in preparing foods/delivering supplies...).
8
Perhaps a medical or public-health professional can answer this question. If there no comprehensive testing has occurred, and, infected persons can be asymptomatic, how is it possible to derive a fatality-rate with any confidence?
23
@Don Every measurement is an estimation and should be treated as such. I certainly hope that the experts in the field recognize this, even if the public and media treat measurements as exact. With repeated measurement and additional information, we hope the accuracy of our estimates improves.
4
@Don You cannot - they are using just confirmed cases. The real mortality will be much lower. Than again a lot of Americans die of heart disease without ever seeing a doctor and we seem to readily accept that flawed data too. However we can say with some more certainty that mortality is significantly higher in the elderly with underlying medical conditions.
6
@SridharC
I wouldn't be so sure about that. In Wuhan a lot of infected people had to stay at home, because the hospitals were overloaded. There are some videos of desperate people at YT screaming things like "Help, my mother is dying, I don't know what to do".
There might be a lot of dead bodies, which haven't been noticed yet.
5
I had a disturbing conversation with one of my physicians approx. 2 weeks ago.
He was raised in China. A prodigy, he earned his medical degree, completed his residency, and was working as a specialist by his mid-20's. He moved with his entire extended family to the US over 25 years ago.
He has no trust in the information the Chinese government releases yet still has contacts with medical experts there. He stated that once democracies outside of China ran the numbers the supposed death rate of 2.9%, adjusted downwards to 2.3%, would be proven untrue with a rate much closer to 4-5%.
The 80% of cases China labeled as mild was also highly deceptive because a large number contracted pneumonia and "self-resolved" only because of intensive antibiotic treatment. Among the approx. 8-10% who became critical yet survived, many sustained organ damage.
He emphasized that beyond a lack of immunity, Coronavirus is not like the flu. It attacks the lungs, quickly damages them, and makes them highly fibrous. It is why it is increasingly difficult for those seriously infected to get enough oxygen.
In Coronavirus infections the body must quickly regenerate lung tissue the virus destroys. In the young and healthy, who can rapidly regenerate, it is far less of an issue, but among those who are elderly, or not elderly yet have diseases like diabetes which hinder healing, the necessary rapid regeneration of damaged lung tissue is much more difficult.
433
@Robert B : But antibiotics are not a treatment for viral pneumonia. So either your doctor's contacts gave him bad information or a lot of people are developing secondary bacterial pneumonia as a result of the coronavirus. I have not seen that reported anywhere. In fact, the WHO has said that the pneumonia vaccines, which protect against bacterial pneumonia, are ineffective against the coronavirus.
28
@Robert B - Thank you for getting out this important additional information. Lung damage seems to be the main culprit and those who recover from the infection may still have persistent issues with their lungs. Long-range plans to deal with this ongoing issue will need to be put in place, something similar to the 9/11 health fund.
21
@Robert B
It was a cruel and unnecessary experiment but the Diamond Princess ship is the Control for the rest of the world. We know from that ship what to expect in general if there is a functioning health care system.
17
Take a deep breath and remember the denominator problem. When all of the assymptomatic and mild test-positve cases are added to the denominator after testing is ramped up, the rate will get smaller. Assume most cases being used to calculate this rate are those who were tested for moderate or severe symptoms.
7
@somebody Please stop spreading inaccurate data. Your calculations are completely wrong.
2
@somebody Still missing a part of the equation as has been pointed out to you.
1
@Karen Remember that if you calculate using current completed cases, the rate is a lot higher. Completed is dead or recovered. 51,026 recovered plus 3,214 dead is 54,240 completed. 3,214 out of 54,240 is 5.9%. So you are right, 5.9% will come down. The WHO is saying that will come down to 3.4%.
9
Absent consistent reliable data and widespread testing (you cannot cherry pick who to test when determining fatality rates!) and the very real possibility that many have had this and thought it a cold or the flu, we cannot have any sense of what the real numbers are. In fact, the fatality rate might be going in the opposite direction if millions more had it and it was so mild they didn't even know.
I'm keenly aware that the opposite may be true too. This is why we must insist that widespread testing take place. A great starting place would be in schools and businesses where many work in close quarters. Bring the tests to these sites and do on the spot testing. Then we can start to talk real numbers.
Until we have that, we're just spitballing (at a time when phlegm is the problem).
27
I'm sorry, but how can we possibly know this? There is a formula for coming up with this number - Number of infections divided by the number of deaths. There could be thousands if not hundreds of thousands of undercounted infections - and there likely is since we're told that so many people have few or no symptoms. They are not being counted. We're only counting the people who get sick enough to go to the doctor.
I've really lost respect for both WHO and CDC over this. They're making up numbers and that's not real science.
23
@Cayce
So you propose the CDC and WHO release no figures because their formula doesn't include, and never will include, those infected with no or mild symptoms?
I think we need to respond based on the way things are, instead of how they ought to be.
10
@Cayce maybe they assume their are also a large number of uncounted deaths. How many people are dying undiagnosed?
5
@Cayce What are you trying to calculate? Mortality rate? It's the number of deaths divided by the number of infections not the other way around.
2
Can we get clarification on the mortality rate? The 3.4% figure is very surprising, and is not supported by other publicly released numbers I've seen.
The 3.4% seems roughy to correspond to the number of deaths per diagnosed cases, but this is not the same as the mortality rate. That would be the number of deaths per exposure, which has been very hard to estimate because we don't know how many people have been exposed.
This is a basic number. Please clarify.
13
Im not a doctor, but suspect that the varying mortality rate from bad infection might depend on multiple interacting variables. These might possibly include factors like does the person have a calm bed to rest in? Is the environment alright? The age and underlying health status and gender of the person. Are there respiratory supports for the person? Maybe some tylenol or antivirals? Just guessing these things add up.
@SC It is supported by the released numbers:
number of deaths divided by the number of infected * 100.
3220/94301*100 = 3.4%
Grade school math.
2
I have traveled every week this year starting in January when I returned from Italy. 34 flights since then. This past weekend symptomatic. I called and found the test is still not available here in lawrence kansas. Until testing is available for anyone who could spread this, might be a carrier, it will continue. It is now March 4. We are very far behind on getting a handle on the scope.
350
@Here & There - Thanks for your report on what's currently happening in your city. There is a lot of talk and hype around increased testing, but it remains to be seen how long it will actually take to put readily-available testing into place.
16
@Here & There
If it's any consolation, if you came to the facility where I work in New York, you wouldn't be tested either.
You don't fit the criteria, plus there are no testing kits.
I hope you feel better soon!
21
@Here & There I'm praying for you and for us all.
7
Can I add: how death rates vary by age has been under-reported but is vital information. The death rate for people over 65 is 25x the death rate for younger adults. The death rate for children is virtually nil. We should be very worried about the elderly and special protections should be made for them.
121
@Petros Kourtakis, Covid-19 is not a flu strain. Flu tends to kill elderly and children. Virtually no children die from Covid-19 unless they were already quite sick with something else.
Also, it's true that death rates for flu are roughly 25x higher than for younger adults. but almost no one knows this number. I didn't know it until a couple of days ago. I don't understand why more protections are not going for nursing homes and other places where the elderly are densely packed.
7
@Petros Kourtakis it IS significant when comparing the higher transmissibility compared to “ typical” flu, plus the higher overall mortality. There is dispute between epidemiologists about the WHO 3.4 % mortality rate but a significant majority, from what I’ve seen ( both in peer reviewed reports and videos) are concerned because this is still a situation in progress and that high mortality rate, when the elderly are hit hardest, means that more of them may be at risk than a typicál flu year . We know the info we got from China points to high deaths, ,considering there were significant efforts to quarantine. We do NOT yet know the statistics for an evolving outbreak here and we don’t know how many people died of
the virus ( like the 2 previously unclassified deaths in Seattle)
4
People 65 and over are given a double dose.
Space force? How about a few places to get tested for coronavirus instead?
180
@Saul I know that was on NPR yesterday and it was so surreal, like we can't even keep people healthy or bridges from crumbling and we are going to spend billions to go to a barron rock?
18
Speaking in wag-the-dog terms, if the mainstream media in this country is looking for its own war, they may soon have one. Irrespective of actual threat, individuals in increasing numbers are behaving collectively---self-isolating, hoarding, retreating from being the good little consumers we are usually known to be and what our ever so important 'economy' needs to keep the machinery of capitalism running!
Purely anecdotal, of course, but a sampling of headlines from local newspapers across the land from Monday and over the weekend, plus my direct communications with friends and family members from all points on the American compass---areas that are far removed from any actual known cases of coronavirus----I have gleaned that people are in the early stages of what, depending on one's view, could ordinarily be called "a run". (Let's not call it a panic quite yet).
They are taking sick days. They are buying up weeks and weeks worth of the expected toilet paper, frozen vegetables, hand sanitizer. They are staying in; no more going to the movies, out to dinner, attending sporting events. Most telling: They have cancelled flight reservations and vacations to Europe, Asia, even Florida, New York, L.A.. Hardly scientific, but two of my friends have stopped using ride-sharing services in the interim. Make of that what you will
Those that aren't panicky, are poised and ready to be. One word about their workplaces, or even communities, well....
We'll have our war, won't we.
20
@David Bartlett - They are taking wise precautions. Sooner or later, the virus will reach them, so best to prepare early. And due to the slow ramp-up in testing, no-one really knows in which communities the virus is currently circulating.
8
@David Bartlett
And the link from panic buying to war is...?
3
@Julian "War" in this case was not meant as literal combat or battle, but as an analogy for the media's propensity to agitate the public into a frenzy, oftentimes expressly to sell newspapers or to gain viewership, or purely for political purposes. 'Wag The Dog' is in reference to a movie of the same name, wherein a politician contrives to get the U.S. into war, which will then give him a political advantage over his opponents.
We don’t get special treatment with this virus because we’re in the US. All that crazy stuff happening in other countries? It’s going to happen here.
41
@T
Covid-19 is so unfair to the US, no other country has been treated so unfairly by this virus!
3
We’ve seen the deserted streets of Wuhan in pics for a month now. What makes anyone think it’s going to be different in NYC, or any other place in the world? We’ve got a government who continues to ignore what little chance we had to prepare ourselves - instead concentrating on the stock market.
What would you do in Manhattan if you and your family were showing symptoms now? Where would you go, how would you get tested? Your own PCP, if you even have one, booked until two months from now? Any idea?
155
@James
You would go to your local Urgent Care, where they don't have any tests, and where you probably don't meet the testing criteria anyway, and you would infect every soul in the crowded waiting room during your two hour wait.
It's going to be an interesting few months...
25
@James
Last Friday, I went to my PCP because of a bladder infection. He was wearing a mask, here in rural VA where not one case has been detected. He admitted that the mask was PR.
1
We are way behind the curve ball on testing. If we don't have enough test kits in this country why isn't Trump's "task force" buying them from South Korea, which has tested hundreds of thousands already? And why can't we have drive-through testing like they are doing in South Korea?
69
Isn’t there significant evidence that China under-reported deaths? Like how throughout the entire momentum of the virus, the death rate stayed within like a 99% degree of predictability. I read this in a statisticians comments somewhere. Google it, there’s ample evidence that the consistency of the death rate in China is just statistically impossible.
12
Trump could have "built a wall" around this virus months ago by preparing with $$, and having systems and equipment ready. Instead he silences people, makes it partisan, calls it another hoax.
Trump ascribes to the old father authoritarian style from the 1950's, the kind that tells the children there is nothing to worry about as he drives the car off the road because he will never admit he shouldn't be driving.
People are going to get hurt now, good people, and it is a direct result of Trump's incompetence, arrogance and his inability to hand over the wheel.
110
@KA
It really was possible to build a wall to protect from the virus rather than spend the fortune necessary to deal with this China virus after it strikes us (and causes the enormous human suffering as well as all the deaths). Trump should have declared a TOTAL travel ban of ALL non-US citizens from entering the US until the disease ran its course worldwide or until we had an effective treatment.
The borders should have been completely closed to non-US citizens. That would have caused substantial economic loss, but nothing that compares to the economic loss we will now be suffering from the disease and, much more importantly, the many deaths and the suffering of those who survive the affliction.
5
@Errol - U.S. citizens are some of the biggest travelers in the world, so limiting travel that way would not have worked. Anyway, that cat's already out of the bag and we are now spreading the virus internally around the country with no help from the citizens of the rest of the world.
5
@Errol
This wouldn't help, because US citizens coming back to home would still import the virus.
4
China's virus count is going down.....because they reacted forcibly and immediately. Strict measures helped. The United States can't even get the supplies or the testing materials. Republicans blame Democrats and Trump is more concerned with......the stock market. If it wasn't for the "fake news" putting up scientists and doctors, we would not be getting any information. Trump let the ball drop. But the Republicans, who are in charge, do little to push him.
43
@Edgar , please see my comment above about a person in NH with corona who was told to quarantine himself, but instead of doing that, he went to a party in a public setting. If America is unwilling to punish such individuals the way China did, we are going to see a lot more illness here.
7
It appears that it is much higher in the state of Washington since 9 have died out of 27 diagnosed (but there are undoubtedly many who have it but have not been diagnosed). It also now appears that the death rate among older people for this disease is much higher even than SARS was, much higher than even the 3.4% that the WHO is claiming.
I remember well all those opinion writers, including some who wrote for the Times, who minimized this disease, claiming we should be concerned with regular flu instead of this disease, claiming we should just wash our hands and not worry.
It is now only about 7 weeks since the WHO refused to declare an international emergency, proving again that the UN agency is corrupt since the WHO admitted that its refusal was to protect China from economic loss (an outrageous desertion from the claimed duty of the WHO). The WHO later even created a purposely meaningless name for this China virus in order to try to protect China economically and politically.
3
Take DEEP breath and stop hyperventilating. Then re-examine how these alarming numbers are calculated and why they are based on a flawed premise.
You will a lot better afterwards.
All that is required is a modest amount of critical thinking.
5
There seem to be a lot of people surprised by this. Yet I calculated this exact number days ago when it was announced that there were 85,000 reported cases and 2,900 deaths. It just basic math. The big question is the accuracy of the number, because of the likely under reporting of both related infections and related deaths.
5
What I am missing is a cogent response from the American Hospital Association on its recommendations for local responses to a significant outbreak of COVID. Their website has no indication that their planning is advanced: Meaning: (a) Do they have plans for staffing when significant numbers of doctors or nurses are on their own quarantine? (b) Is their supply chain robust to allow for enough personal protective equipment for all who need it?
Where I used to work, the hospital has senior leadership physicians, including the CEO, who are infectious disease specialists, so one would expect them to have detailed contingency plans to share and reassure not only the public but their "troops in the trenches", meaning the doctors and nurses on staff. Alas, it seems that there is a dearth of planning, other than rules for management of patients on precautions. A weakness for all hospitals is the supply chain, because, under the LEAN corporate plan universally used, supplies are kept on site and in hospital central supply usually to handle ordinary demands for 7 to 14 days. The system depends on national or regional companies (Cardinal, Medline, 3M etc) to do resupply on a "just in time" basis. Same for medications. If we have a major COVID outbreak, for the first time, we will test how robust the supply chain is. For a doc in this forum to note a lack of supplies means that the corporate plans or supply chain failed. You can't fight a war without ammo.
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@Jeff
Exactly, "just in time" supply is about cutting cost and making more profit for shareholders. Many corporate entities are now experiencing the cost of this "just in time" strategy. For our corporate health care systems that cost will be counted in deaths. Having left health care to corporate entities the US have for years been paying about twice what civilized countries pay, now the price in mortality will be revealed.
3
I was just thinking the our government, in order to be prepared for something like this, should have had the resources to distribute to the population hand sanitizer and disinfect wipes which is an effective way to combat this. As of now there is no hand sanitizer to be found.
9
@Susan this is what happens when you put people in government that hate government.
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@Susan
Get a bar of soap and use it. That is much more effective than hand sanitizer.
3
@Susan
Isopropyl alcohol is still on store shelves (at least in South Florida), and when used alone, it is an effective hand sanitizer. You can also mix it with aloe vera gel to thicken it so that it spreads like Purell. Look for "recipes" online since the ratio of alcohol to aloe vera gel is important.
1
The problem with calculating the mortality rate is that although the numerator (the number of Covid-19 deaths) is known, the denominator (the number of Covid-19 infections) is not.
If (hypothetically) 100% of all infected persons exhibit severe symptoms, the denominator is small. If only 10% exhibit severe symptoms, the denominator is much larger. And if the vast majority of infected persons show no symptoms (which is quite possible), the denominator is huge.
What we may have here, and we simply cannot know it at present, is a disease that infects a large number of persons, but only a small number are symptomatic; however for that group the disease is often fatal.
9
@John Graybeard
From yesterday's report by the Italian Ministry of Health,
"Among the 2,263 active cases, 1,034 (46%) are hospitalized, 229 of which (representing 10% of active cases) are in intensive care.
Among the 239 closed cases, 160 (67%) have recovered, 79 (33%) have died."
You claim that "only 10% of cases exhibit severe symptoms" when, in fact, 10% of cases lead to intensive care and nearly half exhibit symptoms severe enough for hospitalization. There is a big difference.
Remember that Italy is the Western country that has tested most, so its figures are perhaps the best guide.
6
@John Graybeard the numerator isn’t known with precision in this case either. It’s likely that some deaths are occurring that are attributed to other causes.
5
@Julian 2263 confirmed cases. How many people who just had a headache were never tested? Multiply the 2263 by at least 10 and you might have a more accurate representation of what is going on. They think there might be over 1000 undetected cases in Washington since it has been spreading for at least 6 weeks.
First of all, this number is greatly exaggerated because of the numbers in Hubei Province, and Wuhan the city in the epicenter in particular. At the early time, there were rushes on hospitals; many couldn't get treated. As a result, many treatable cases became severe and even critical, which led to abnormally high mortality rate in Wuhan and Hubei. And I cannot trust the numbers from Iran, either the confirmed cases or the deaths.
Examining the numbers in China outside of Hubei gives a much lower mortality rate, well below 1%. So unless we also experience a rush on the hospitals, I expect the mortality rate in the US to be much lower than the 3.4% number from WHO, more likely to be closer to 0.5%. This is of course still a high morality rate compared to seasonal flus.
3
@Avi
You say "I expect the mortality rate in the US to be much lower than the 3.4% number from WHO, more likely to be closer to 0.5%."
With respect you cannot know; you are speculating. I trust you are not influenced by Mr Trump's unqualified wishful thinking. You also say with too much certainty or providing evidence to support it
"Examining the numbers in China outside of Hubei gives a much lower mortality rate, well below 1%."
They are what they are- examining them in what way, with what basis and what methodology? You could have examined them with Tarot cards with equal legitimacy.
With great respect, I suggest one needs more facts and empirical evidence to make a statement disputing WHO.
Honesty your comment is mere sophistry.
7
The numbers outside China need more care due to 1) the rapid growth of the number of infected, 2) the delay between infection and outcome. Suppose the average time between reporting infection to reporting death is a week, then you need to divide the number of deaths today by the number of infected a week ago. Using the Who situation reports, there has been an increase of 4x in confirmed infections in that time period.
2
Avi, your premise if faulty. There is no treatment for non-severe cases. Even for severe cases, only supportive care is provided.
1
At least in America at this time, the numbers will be suspect. There is no advantage in paying to get yourself tested for coronavirus infection, as there is no modulation of treatment. Thus the pressure to avoid perceived gratuitous use of the medical system in order to reduce costs comes home to roost.
Out of curiosity, I'm wondering if a person went to urgent care or the ER (or their personal physician) if that person could even find out what the cost was at the point of service. This being America, I suspect not; by the time one found out the cost, one would be either dead or recovered. Just another reason to decline.
15
Call it for what it is--a modern day plague that is just about to hit major global cities. No vaccine and no treatment except for supportive care.
38
It’s borderline irresponsible to print these numbers without caveats.
Yes, that it the number the WHO has put out but according to US infectious disease experts, the number of undiagnosed cases is certainly higher than has been accounted for, meaning the true mortality rate is lower.
11
@William Not necessarily true. The number of undiagnosed cases is certainly higher, but likewise, the number of fatalities attributed to the virus are also likely underestimated.
28
Just like there are many undiagnosed asymptomatic people, there are likely many deaths that haven’t been correctly attributed to the coronavirus.
9
@William Caveats go the other way too. The numbers that the government of China puts out are not reliable due to many different factors, and it may be prudent to use countries outside of China as the benchmark for how we gauge mortality rate for the disease where the mortality rate seems to go as high as 8%. The majority of cases outside China also have yet to recover, which of course means they can still die.
1
The Trump administration seems to respond to major issues in a totally non-substantive manner. It’s as if you take your shoe to the shoemaker to repair a hole in the sole and he polishes them and gives them back to you.
81
@Ralph Hirsch - Thank you! This is the best analogy I've heard yet.
10
@Ralph Hirsch or he just takes them away and tells you the shoes were a hoax.
11
I suspect that the statistics may be inaccurate, because many people will be infected, but believe that they have had a cold or have had no distressing symptoms and therefore no idea that they were infected. Although the virus can obviously be deadly, many people are relatively unaffected by the virus. Although in my case as an “old goat”, with underlying health issues I am very anxious to avoid contagion and a visit from the Grim Reaper :-).
14
I find the new claim from someone at WHO that the mortality rate is 3.4% to be very puzzling. That number seems to track closely to the total number of reported deaths divided by the total number of reported cases. The mortality rate in Wuhan should be much higher, given the large number of unreported early cases there. On the other hand, it was mentioned that the mortality rate outside of Wuhan was 0.7%--where the total number of reported cases may more closely track (but still lag) the total number of actual cases. While mortality may be much higher in small community groups, where vulnerability may vary, it seems from the numbers that the more largely based average is not 3.4%.
7
@tfrodent I call bull on the 3.4% mortality rate. There are too few testing kits and too many unknowns to determine one, especially without adding the uncertainty range. Furthermore stopping the spread at this point is impossible due to the assumption that a lot of people only show mild or no symptoms and therefore are not tested.
Can the responsible organizations and news stations stop starting mass panics and start reporting proper statistics. The current way the outbreak is being treated is irresponsible.
4
Are the same people who now demand Public Health be accelerated to protect US residents the same ones who decried Socialism just a minute ago? How ironic.
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@Elizabeth
Is that you, Senator Warren? I agree completely. This disease has made the best case for Medicare for All.
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@Julian
Migrants and undocumented people should not be treated. Oh wait a minute. An untreated pool of people may exacerbate the spread.
28
@Elizabeth Most people who don’t like Big Government demand Big Government services when there is a crisis.
There is a reason we pay for police and fire. And this is a critically important reason we must pay for strong public health systems.
7
Trump and Pence’s handling of the virus is atrocious. The number of confirmed virus cases in the US will be low if no one is tested. North Korea literally may have tested more people than the US.
I hate to say it but a Trump’s pathological inability to admit a mistake or weakness is already taking a severe toll.
50
@Javaforce British Columbia, one province in Canada, has tested more people than the entire United States. Darned socialist medicine for all.
1
If you can stomach the read, google Taiwan News and read the online reports, videos, and stories about the virus in China. The numbers and stories are way worse than I could imagine.
Hunker down, America.
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@mainesummers
Suggest you read Singaporean news (CNA etc) instead. Much more of a neutral party...
13
I’d like to cancel my Amazon Prime membership. Please deliver my packages after 15 days.
3
A simple solution: Don’t order anything.
15
About how many face masks should we try to get? (What is the definition of hoarding?)
My understanding is if someone in a household gets sick, the patient and the caregiver should both wear masks.
I also understand (from a doctor I know) that after about 4 hours, a face mask is probably contaminated and should be changed.
Since face masks aren’t much available anyway, do we have any trusted source on how to make homemade ones?
7
@Irene Because the virus is transmitted from surfaces rather than through the air (unless a person coughs or sneezes directly in your face) hand washing is the key, not wearing a mask. Having a patient wear a mask reduces the possibility of them contaminating surfaces.
4
@Irene
Check YouTube for videos on making your own masks. Some of the videos are labeled "dust masks"
Surgical type masks are being used for most contacts and outside of the health care setting, mostly to avoid droplets from contacting the face and airways. Homemade/DIY masks can be fashioned easily to avoid excessive air leakage around the mask (which in the case of COVID 19, may be more important than the filtration capacity of the fabric.
2
Quoted on NYT’s new article on the ny subway:
“Health officials have warned that the virus seems to spread easily, traveling through the air in tiny droplets produced when a sick person breathes, talks, coughs or sneezes.”
Wearing masks is effective because the droplets from breathing is contagious.
2
What this administration has done by past cuts to our public health system is unacceptable and dangerous. That said, how does the WHO know the worldwide mortality rate? How does it account for mild and asymptomatic cases? How does it account for its focus on severe and critically ill patients (understandable but does not help with calculating a denominator)?
I have no idea if the current calculations of mortality are correct, but suspect it is too high. Sometimes this is what happens when experts argue. This does not mean we should not be concerned about a virus that may more than double our problems with the usual flu season. Much still remains to be explained by an administration that has cut our public health system and made it more difficult for the CDC to operate.
8
@JSK
Exactly what cuts?
Pelosi and the Democrats are in charge of spending so — again — exactly what has been cut?
@JSK In Korea where they are testing everybody, the total number of cases is over 5,000 and deaths are at 32. That's probably more accurate figure representation of the fatality rate. Reporting the rate of death based on current inadequate testing is not responsible.
9
@Jonny Walker
Thanks for your comment. This fits more with Dr. Rosenthal's previous NYTs piece (and several other elsewhere): https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/opinion/coronavirus-death-rate.html . I would also trust her comments more than the WHO stats reported in this current column.
2
The new mortality rates for Covid-19 cited by the WHO are alarming, given the scientific rationale: years of flu vaccine and "flu shot" campaigns have helped Americans in particular build up some sort of immunity.
Now we have a brand new virus, no vaccine, a worldwide panic, and a call from the world's major health organization not to hoard medical supplies.
Covid-19 will be as dangerous as the cultural responses and leadership of individual countries allows. If people panic, spread inaccurate information, and disregard what the experts are advising, the impact will translate into more deaths.
If ever there were a need for strong leadership and firm guidelines, it's now.
26
There’s no reason to trust data coming out of China, and the WHO and journalists should qualify reference to Chinese data each time with that note.
13
Yes and no - in the one hand, obvious reasons to be suspicious many aspects of govt control in China. On the other hand, read, for example, American Academy of Sciences magazine “Science”
Report on WHO visit. A lot of decent health care, containment, and basic research has been done on large populations with this disease in China. Some containment strategies work, some not, but we all want to avoid another Wuhan and don’t have to be totalitarian to do so. Global colleagues and peers are reviewing that research. That knowledge can help all of us.
5
Who cares what they are reporting right now? It’s here and I want some real data about what is going on right here at home. But it’s been can’t test, don’t test so far.
5
With the limited testing done in the rest of the world reporting that fatality rate is completely irresponsible. There might be 1500 cases in Washington, per epidemiologists tracking the genetic make up of the virus, but under 100 confirmed with 9 deaths based on restrictive and limited testing. The fatality rate is not 3.7%. I think I have to just stop looking at the news so I won't die of high blood pressure from anger.
36
7 people have died in ONE nursing home. More are sick. The mortality rate -there- is sky high.
28
@M Yes, only those people and those they have come in contact with have been tested. However, the virus has been spreading in Washington for 6 weeks and they believe there are hundreds if not over 1000 cases that have escaped detection. The mortality rate is inflated and is not sky high. An outbreak of the flu in a nursing home would kill half the people in it. In South Korea, where they are testing everybody, there are over 5000 cases and 32 deaths. That's probably a more accurate representation of the fatality rate. W.H.O. has no business reporting this number. The U.S. restricted testing to people who had been to China until a week ago. Even people with obvious symptoms were not tested. Nor does it have the capacity to test those who should be tested, Trump's lies to the contrary. 100 cases in the US. Sure. Whatever you say.
13
Precisely!
Confirmation bias can prove anything.
Just listen to Simon and Garfunkel:
“Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”
The most worrisome development may be that the WHO is now also caught up in that global stampede. How is the public supposed to respond rationally under those circumstances?
3
See how this thing exploded in South Korea? Cannot fathom how people don’t expect the same here in the US. We need to take more aggressive steps now. Business as usual is crazy.
127
@Pigsy However, South Korea exploded because they are the only country outside China that expanded testing to everybody. While the cases have exploded to over 5000, there are still only 32 deaths, a fatality rate of .6%. That's probably the true number. Worse than the flu, but not terrifying.
11
@Jonny Walker
The cases in SK are almost all in Daegu, so the entire country is not overwhelmed, and the explosion in cases is less than three weeks old, so there will be many people among those currently ill who will die of the disease.
Look, if the WHO says 3.4% and your take on Korea is 0.6%, why not meet half way at 2%? Ultimately, we will not know until this is all done and we start checking for antibody rates in the general population, but this desire to keep talking down what the experts say is confirmation bias at its worst!
6
Yeah, not the same as flu. Enough with false comparisons. Citizens want information. They want doctors with facts, not the VP. They want to see action to protect public health.
132
Action to protect public is not the priority which is to protect the $50 billion profits of Big Insurance and Big Pharma
4
Its pretty clear that the US government's initial reaction and preparedness was unacceptable. There were people dying in Seattle before anyone even new it was there. Lack of testing has left the whole country blind to where the virus is and who needs treatment and quarantine. Further more Trump has slashed all the preparedness funding in his attacks on Obama era programs. This could be the biggest health crises to hit America in our life times and the stooges in charge care more bout reelecting Trump than is protecting the population of the country.
386
@Fennario
I cannot state this more plainly. He is a threat to this nation and by extension the world. Exceptional times call for exceptional remedies. Forget impeachment. Fire him. He's derelict in his duty and is making this worse in every way imaginable.
207
@AhBrightWings Totally agree, the guy does not have a clue. People are dying and he is still sending out his petty tweets with his latest nick names for people he feels threatened by. He is pathetic. His main focus remains himself and getting re-elected.
I have access to the BBC and they just seems some much more in control there. They have created a database of retired doctors and nurses that can call on. They tell people if they feel ill to stay home and call a published emergency number. We have nothing here other than wash your hands !!
Epic failure from Trump and his team.
3
Yes he’s a threat, but that won’t stop his weekly golf outing in FL this weekend.
1
"China censored information about the virus as early as December, a new report finds". China may still be censoring information. The Globe and Mail yesterday reported on a Canadian in his 50's who travelled to Beijing around Jan 13, met there with bosses from Wuhan and died on Jan 23. He had fever and was throwing up for several days prior to death, but officials refuse to perform an autopsy or test his remains for Covid-19 virus. Seems the death rate in China may be higher than the 3.4% rate noted in this article.
More troubling is the world's dependence on ingredients for and drugs from China and India, including antibiotics and other medications needed to fight Covid-19. Perhaps it is a mistake to be so dependent on a few lower cost suppliers. An international strategy is needed to ensure critical supplies in this battle.
38
Readers,
Has anyone heard information on companies instructing employees to work from home? Seattle and NYC should do this quickly to reduce the risk of infection.
130
@AM Reader My company and several others I’ve heard of in the city have policies in place for if and when the virus spread gets bigger here. So far there are only 3 known cases is the New York area.
5
@AM reader, many Seattle employers are implementing self-guided actions based on common sense and the honor system: “Until further notice, if this, then do this.” And they’re issuing daily updates. This seems a sensible approach that leaves many t’s uncrossed. But what I’m telling my kids that I’ll tell you: if only half of Americans take every possible precaution, we’re in a much better place than if people ignore precautions.
5
My company - global pharmaceutical- has instructed Japan to work remote and just this week Zurich “if preferable”. It would be nice if we could be even more clear. It’s cultural still for people to show up to work when not necessary. Everyone else is still coming to the office in Boston given no instruction yet, especially the old school over 50 year old men.
I held a webex only workshop today and I was the only person in the conference room! It was difficult but I did my best. I will miss people if this goes on too long.
1
I'm surprised that the fatality number is rising. With talk that many may have this in such mild form that it expresses as a cold and they therefore don't seek treatment and aren't tested, we can't possibly know what the hard numbers are.
We must get accurate data. Panic is being fueled by fears about the mortality rate, yet we keep hearing that many may have it and not even be symptomatic. We need to do mass testing to get real numbers and control fear.
As to the fear...many are being scolded for that. Those who plan for pandemics must begin to understand this: The fear and pandemonium, the panic shopping, and hoarding are not (alas) incidental to the disease. They are its chief symptoms and they must be planned for as carefully as we plan for the morbidity and mortality rates. Those impulses, deeply rooted in Darwinian survival instincts, are hardwired so they must be accounted for.
It was a foregone conclusion from the onset that markets would fall, the supplies would dwindle, that people would panic and hoard. It's called human nature. Plan for it.
Strangely enough, last year I began a novel (yes, yet another post apocalyptic one) about a species-ending flu. I told my husband at the onset that one thing I wanted to focus on was the exquisite interconnection of all of our systems, of how the very impulse to create a global economy and world would be the real vector for contagion, and contagion of the mind and body.
A bit eerie to be doing live research like this.
77
@AhBrightWings
I want to make very clear that I don't think this is the "big one." When I said I'm doing research, I just meant that I'm seeing the very scenarios I had already written in and pondering how eerily my fictional vision --about behaviors, not the disease --is being echoed in the moment.
9
Hello, the numbers are available because the rest of the world is doing mass testing. I understand however that you would ask the question as an American since no testing is done in the USA but numbers can be deduced from row data.
25
@Marc Peloquin
Marc, the only people who are being tested are people who are symptomatic. We've been told that many may have this in such mild form that they never seek help. If that is true, then the total number of infected might be much much larger. That means that the deaths, awful as they are, are statistically a much lower proportion of the overall number.
That matters.
17
As of last weekend Florida Republican Governor DeSantis said we had no testing kits in the state. With a large retired population and tourists from all over the world congregating in crowded amusement parks what could go wrong?
Educate yourself by following CDC, Johns Hopkins and other reputable websites, not Facebook or other social media sites. Your life and those of your loved ones could depend on it.
206
Why no updated stats about number of new cases, here in the US or overseas?
9
Honestly the numbers being reported mean very little. Most new cases are community sweeties, meaning the health department cannot trace where they contracted it. That means there are dozens more cases for each of those single positive ones reported. The “map” in the US is misleading too, fly over states have under funded health department and their leadership feels this isn’t as big a deal. So once we get actual tests I am hoping we can do surveillance monitoring. Using fast DNA microarray techniques to rule out all the others know respiratory viruses and then testing for Covid. But the leaders in this country are wasting precious time. This is exponentially growing every minute
8
Unfortunately, I suspect the Covid 19 coronavirus is likely already widespread in the United States. We don’t have accurate stats because the CDC had very narrow instructions for testing and initially didn’t allow local hospitals and states to do their own testing. Currently labs are also limited on the number of test they can run per day. I suspect within a few weeks there will be a large number of positive patients with Covid 19 reported in the United States.
6
The US is way passed this type of monitoring. It is simply not testing. In that sense it should expect Iran like numbers.
3
When quoting a statistic, NYT please be precise about what it means.
e.g.
1. This WHO report seems to be 3.4% of people who have tested positive for coronavirus.
2. But this is different to the calculated number, the number of deaths compared to all the people infected with coronavirus. What's that now?
3. When I last looked, Italy had put half their cases (of testing positive) in hospital, and 9% of their cases in intensive care. And I've noticed about half of people in intensive care die. What are these numbers globally?
Also, other questions. What is the evolving danger to men over women, or is it just a smoking effect in China? What are the chances of death for each sex if you have no health issues at each age? At present, only age groups are given numbers, e.g. 1.3% for all people in their 50s. And an article on how can people improve their health in a useful way to reduce their chances of dying, would be good. I suggest you get a science person on this - maths and biology!
134
@Stephen Agreed! Also I find the use of %points confusing .. why not just say "1 in 10 people in their 50s" OR "4 in 10 of those in their 70s," etc.?
Perhaps I'm being picky, but think I could better understand all news reports if they'd leave the %points out & just give us real numbers!
16
@Stephen I know at least 30 people who were sick with a strange flu in Milan in January and February (me included) who got better within a week and never went to the doctor. The fatality rate is very low. I can't be tested for antibodies or I would go. Four friends had the exact symptoms, headache, fever, cough, etc., for 4 days. Flu lasts way longer than 4 days and colds last for over a week. They are all pretty sure they were infected. For every positive case there are probably 100 that never get tested.
10
@Stephen I think the math is pretty clear and up to a point it doesn't really help if you want to make it one more decimal accurate. The bigger issue is how you are going to do about it.
4
Italy is now issuing new guidelines for the entire country.
In addition to frequent hand-washing and sneezing/coughing into a tissue/elbow, here are some new measures:
- Maintain a distance of one meter from others, especially indoors.
- Avoid kissing (a regular way of greeting here in Italy), hugging and shaking hands.
- Persons over 75 should remain at home; the same applies for anyone over 65 who has any type of illness.
- Public events: most have been cancelled, but for theatres and cinemas, seating should be staggered.
111
Wow. Actual instructions. Maybe we should get something like that in the US.
23
Reading here about all the lowly paid employees working for the sub-contractors of the UK's NHS who with no paid sick leave vow to come into work sick because they have no choice. ( hmm... sounds familiar?) What if the coronavirus is the turning point in the way the capitalist system ( "Corporations are People" to quote Senator Romney) treats their fellow human beings? Health Care, Paid Sick leave, Maternity and Paternity leave...all become a human right.
230
That will never happen in the USA
4
Here in Japan, people are staying in, all gatherings are cancelled. The government is giving us guidelines to follow and most people I know are following them. Since 18 million school aged kids are out of school, there was some flack about them going to karaoke booths and game centers and spreading the virus by touching mics and games....now most schools have sent out warnings to parents to not allow kids to go to those places, but to keep them at home. As some people at a daycare centre in Osaka were infected, now the government is wondering if they should shut all daycare centres to limit the spread of the virus....and also they have approved money for workers who need to take off for their children. The healthcare system is excellent, #2 in the world, however...wondering if hospitals will have enough beds for all.
328
@Sakurako
Japan is taking the epidemic seriously by closing schools and offering guidelines for self-quarantine.
On the heels of China's draconian shut down of Wuhan -- a city of 11 million –– that seems to have successfully stanched COVID-19's spread, I have to wonder about this statement from WHO:
"Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director general, said in a news conference in Geneva that Covid-19 was deadlier than the seasonal flu but did not transmit as easily."
How can we conclude transmission rates are lower than the flu when most effective, proven way to stop its spread is via an all-out lockdown?
Yet even with a lockdown, the Wuhan mortality rate is 4% inside the city. Taken together, that number -- from a lockdown situation -- is hardly reassuring. The flu strain for 2020 has an estimated 0.2% mortality rate, making COVID-19 80 times deadlier -- at least in Wuhan.
"The silver lining in that news is that the pace of infections in China is continuing to drop by the day."
If the US thinks that silver lining transfers to our homeland, it is mistaken. It'd be like comparing a precious metal to beach sand.
The pace of infections in China is dropping because it has ordered its citizens -- infected and non-infected -- to remain in place.
No such policy in nearby RI, where several tourists from Milan have tested positive. Two of them returned to school for several days before their diagnosis.
US leadership re COVID-19 has been terrible.
21
@Sakurako
Japan is taking the epidemic seriously by closing schools and offering guidelines for self-quarantine.
On the heels of China's draconian shut down of Wuhan -- a city of 11 million –– that seems to have successfully stanched COVID-19's spread, I have to wonder about this statement from WHO:
"Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director general, said in a news conference in Geneva that Covid-19 was deadlier than the seasonal flu but did not transmit as easily."
How can we conclude transmission rates are lower than the flu when most effective, proven way to stop its spread is via an all-out lockdown?
Yet even with a lockdown, the Wuhan mortality rate is 4% inside the city. Taken together, that number -- from a lockdown situation -- is hardly reassuring. The flu strain for 2020 has an estimated 0.2% mortality rate, making COVID-19 20 times deadlier -- at least in Wuhan.
"The silver lining in that news is that the pace of infections in China is continuing to drop by the day."
If the US thinks that silver lining transfers to our homeland, it is mistaken. It'd be like comparing a precious metal to beach sand.
The pace of infections in China is dropping because it has ordered its citizens -- infected and non-infected -- to remain in place.
No such policy in nearby RI, where several tourists from Milan have tested positive. Two of them returned to school for several days before their diagnosis.
US leadership re COVID-19 has been terrible.
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@Sakurako I have been to Japan and noticed how law-abiding, considerate of one another, and careful the citizens are in public.
Unfortunately, many Americans pay no heed to warnings and symptoms and go about their business heedless of their effects on others (the Westchester man is a case in point).
The utter stupidity of many Americans will only make this pandemic worse.
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Now I am
A bit more worried. Not one prone to hysteria, but having as many truly knowledgeable people on the case is critical. This is when it’s apparent that we’ve got a lame president in office.
God help us all.
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You have no idea. The people in charge of this have zero clue. The CDC was gutted. Most people I respected left after this administration mocked them for slashed their funding. So now we are woefully underprepared, understaffed, and are rapidly moving into critical territory even keeping staff safe. This virus is ramping up. It’s and exponential game we are playing. Estimates in the Seattle are out the numbers at around 1500. This will double every few days. If you are seeing deaths, these people have been sick for a couple of weeks.
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@Dr.E
Think of a big box truck, parked on a sloped road, with no brakes. It starts to roll.
When do you want to stop it by throwing something in front of it? When it's going 1 MPH, or 40MPH?
Obviously, the earlier we act, the easier it is to stop the rolling truck or the pandemic.
Waiting till the first few cars have been crushed and 3-4 people killed is a really bad idea.
Closing schools (and banning gatherings, forcing work-from-home, etc.,) early will save lives.
Waiting will ensure hospitals get swamped and more people die.
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It’s been apparent since he campaigned but whatever it takes. Welcome aboard!
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