Joe Biden trying to debate Deficit Don is going to make Gerald Ford look like a paragon of articulate and insightful wisdom.
8
Biden clearly has defects. At times unfocused. Rambling in speech. Memory lapses. Guilty of fact confusion. But with Trump in the White House most Americans crave a return to sanity and decency and integrity. When it comes to traditional American values Biden shines. Biden can lead the cleansing of America.
8
If I'm Biden's campaign manager....
* I go get all the help that Bloomberg's willing and able to offer....data, staff, infrastructure, cash...and deploy it massively, front-loading the campaign with a media push
* I go hire all the best speechwriters and media people I can find, and rewrite all of Joe's material and give it punch, pizazz, and pow.
* I pull my candidate off the race-track personal appearance circuit, backing off sharply on the schedule and begin to measure and meter his daily energy level, physical and mental, to keep total stress within an allowable budget.
* I get the best available personal physicians, trainers, and groomers, and tell them to pamper the guy and make sure they're on top of his vital signs at all times.
* I put Joe on a teleprompter as much as possible, or even have him speaking from crib notes if necessary, to keep his appearances sleek, energetic, focused, sharp, and full of impact. No more ex tempore, no more wandering, no more maudlin wandering down memory lane.
* The speeches have to be retooled for punch and relevance and crisp, just-right policy detail and big picture Vision--no one should leave a Biden event, or turn away from a Biden TV or video, without knowing exactly what he stands for and what he plans to do as president.
* I'll script and drill my candidate on how to respond to the uncomfortable questions and challenges he'll get--in debates, in interviews, in public encounters.
* We'll lay Trump-traps that will win!!
12
Whoever wins the party nomination, all Democrats and voters of all stripes who care about the country need to get behind the candidate to defeat Donald Trump. The country cannot survive another four years of Donald Trump’s march towards Fascism and tyranny.
6
Country before self - Sanders is like Trump - all about me. The Dems don’t owe Bernie - he is an Independent. He makes his own rules. We b have Trump in part because of him and his supporters who didn't’ t vote. Shame on you!
3
All I’m reading is Trump just won four more years but first we get to witness the cringiest debate of all time between two geezers: one who looks like he’s not even present mentally and the other who has just been far too present in the media the last 3 years. Trump won people. Time to buy defense contractor stocks and admit that the current Democratic Party is just a Republican Party that doesn’t deny that humans are causing climate change.
4
As usual, Russ is way off. Yes, there has been consolidation. Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg did the right thing. Heck, even Beto showed some real passion.
But let’s give the credit where it’s really due. Biden’s miraculous turnaround started with Jim Clyburn’s endorsement. The voters of South Carolina—especially African-American voters—provided Biden with an astonishing and overwhelming victory.
So stop with the pat on your back. And tell the Republicans—including Donald Trump and Mike Pence—that they should have been in Selma to march over the Edmund Pettus Bridge.
6
Biden was a rash choice, propelled by being the closest floating thing near conservative democrats.
I can't wait for people to hear him Talk again! LOL.
Who's his fervent base? Reactionary 'moderates' who are afraid of socialism, even though their favorite vacation spots and the happiest people are in socialist countries - France, Germany, Denmark....
It's not a crazy concept to take care of each other instead of spending all our $ on weapons and oil and factory farming and banks.
6
This is Thomas Friedman's Wednesday the day after and the Dow is up over a thousand and but the song I am hearing isn't Happy Days are Here Again. Coronavirus is alive and kicking and the word of the day is oligarchy.
Maybe Happy Days are Here Again.
3
It's touching to see so many defend Biden's clear mental weaknesses. People will overlook anything to win. They can cloak their words in "morality" and "righteousness" but they cannot hide that it's all about winning.
3
“Instead of defeated candidates limping off to lick their wounds, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg were on a stage with Joe Biden within a day of their decisions to drop out.” — how selfless, how patriotic! Come on. What cabinet posts were promised?
4
No one thought Bernie could be the nominee of the Democratic party until Bernie got the Big Mo from winning the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the NH primary. Suddenly the support for the sleeping giant erupted when the party and the country petrified that a socialist democrat could actually become the 46th president of the USA. Don't read too much more into this. Biden was the beneficiary of the utter desperation of the hunger of the Democrats to regain power that they lost in 2016 at any cost. It was not a Biden consolidation it was a consolidation of a belief that by hook or by crook they can project hope that Bernie will not be president while someone anyone dead or alive as long as that dude is a card carrying member of the Democratic party will be shoved into the white house by pushing out the current incumbent. Mueller failed to achieve this goal for the Democrats after futzing around for 2 years, Impeach 45 was a big flop, Corona hysteria and frenzy has only triggered unjustified panic and so whats left? Throw Bernie under the bus by all means possible by propping up a gaffe prone rusty career establishment politician, grandpa Joe. This will be the third attempt of Joe and the same reason that he was not elected 2 times before will be the one that will knock him down again. That is the reason that Obama is surfacing as the front for Joe. I expect Obama's endorsement for Joe any minute and Hillary has already said "No one likes Bernie"
The Dems empire is striking back
4
"His fellow Democrats and especially his fellow politicians clearly just like him more than Republicans liked any of the NeverTrump candidates."
I'm waiting for unity and compromise to make a comeback. I'm so sick of ugly, angry politics, where winning is everything even at the cost of totally trashing your opponent of the moment.
4
The Democrats took your advice?
Yes, I'm sure you were the first person they thought of when thinking of their strategy to get to November and they were all asking each other what you thought they should do.
4
Uncle Joe is benign and after Trump benign never looked so good.
2
If an anti-Trump Republican like yourself can feel positively about Biden, then we can all be encouraged about Biden’s prospects.
3
No doubt, Biden has always played within the system and by its rules. He's kissed the right rings and has always been subservient to corporate America just like his moderate friends. You either love it or you hate it.
4
Do Democrats really want to nominate a man who confuses his wife with his sister, who can’t string together a coherent sentence, and who supported trade deals that would kill him in the Rust Belt?
4
My God, you can’t really think that Ted Cruz would be a significant improvement over Trump! He may be a bit more polite and less foul mouthed, but that’s about all. His attitudes and policies are equally despicable. Plus given the terrible things Agent Orange has said about him, his wife and his father for Cruz to go back to him begging for his support is beyond despicable. Cruz has no standards of decency at all, no integrity.
3
Voters will never love Biden.. he is an old man, gaffe ridden and inarticulate...HOWEVER... look at who he will be running against...TRUMP.... an inveterate liar, someone who cannot speak except in word salad, someone for whom the highest virtue is loyalty instead of competence, someone who cannot read or learn, someone who prioritizes the wall over public health, someone who rants instead of speaks, someone who returns to the same tired catch phrases continually.....in short Biden will look like a competent towering intellect. Biden cannot help looking like the better choice, in spite of his limitations.
4
Bernie was toast the moment Bill DeBlasio endorsed him.
That loser is a political touch of death!
So... the losers dropped out leaving the king of losers, Biden. My already low evaluation of the DNC is demolished this year. How low can it sink? DNC can’t win in a race against Reps. They’re already at the bottom. This is an amazing waste of money and attention.
3
Yes Ross, Democrats took your advice. The whole world revolves around your column.
2
I look forward to Hunter Biden becoming the Attorney General.
3
So, this means you and conservatives like you eill vote for Bidden, right? Because that's a fourth read on Dems are voting for him-to attract disillusioned conservatives and independents. So, return the favor by voting for Biden in November.
1
It's a little egotistical to rite "The democrats took my advice..." Just saying...
1
Prizefighting promoter Don King tells Klobuchar and Buttigieg they have to take a dive now but he’ll give ‘em a shot at the title on the next round.
He’s negotiating with Warren as we speak.
Sanders won’t take a dive so King will make sure
he never gets a title fight.
That’s how it works around here.
1
Wow, it is all because of Ross! Thanks, Ross!
2
Trump has demonstrated his future, of an increasingly overwhelmingly fascist idiocracy.
Bernie offers a better future than the past and present. Instead, the Democratic voters preferred a reset to Obama, in voting heavily for Biden.
After all the stress created by Trump's low intellect, insanity, paranoia, narcissistic unreality, and cruelty, and by his rubber stamp Senate, the Democratic voters want a return to reality and decency, to make America great again.
The American people will elect a Democratic President in November, with Democratic majorities in both Houses.
2
"...(T)he Democrats took my advice, and it worked."
Golly, shucks oh wow! Do you have any advice for me, Mr. Douthat? I'll gratefully take it.
1
How did a cretin like Trump ever get elected? What has he done in office that was not on full display during his campaign?
A lot of former Trump voters need to do some soul searching.
I have personally disowned every family member that voted for Trump. And I’m not into forgiving. Not for this.
2
Excellent analysis (Warren supporter here). Would it have killed you to have given a hat tip to Jim Clyburn?
Well argued, Ross!
Biden’s disgraceful treatment of Anita Hill disqualifies him from the Democratic nomination. He’s just another old, rich, white man who believes that he is entitled to be President.
2
Imagine that, a picture of Biden doing something youthful with someone youthful. This flurry of NYT op-eds is repugnant. They range from 'he just performed a miracle' (Bruni) to he's 'the great unifier' (this article). It's clear that the inner circle of the democratic party and democratic media understand that "history is written by the victors". After all, these two groups write this history between themselves! They know that all they need to do is get their candidates to WIN somewhere, even if it's one hundreth of a percent of a "State Delegate Equivalent" (a sham measure) - and they can then work it from there.
Here's a good thought experiment. What would the Super Tuesday outcome look like if Biden performed his miracle WITHOUT the cooperation of Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke and surely many other party insiders? The national map would look very different, his color coding would surely be eclipsed by Bernie's. Let's see... there would be no Maine for him, no Minnesota, no Massachusetts, no Texas for Joe, even Virginia and North Carolina wouldn't be givens if Mayor Pete and Amy hadn't dropped out and endorsed him the day before. He wouldn't be up 60-some delegates (with 2,635 still to go, a lesser known fact) over Bernie; he'd be BELOW him at least that much right now. The bogus stories of Joe Biden, the great consolidator and miracle worker would probably not fly.
3
And lets not forget about what Buttigieg did before he dropped out and threw his support to Biden. He didn't go to have a nice chat with Obama the de facto leader of the party and architect of the ACA. Nope he went to see Jimmy Carter. A gay man going to the evangelical former president. I am sure Mr. Carter, frail and ready for his maker to call him home, welcomed Mayor Pete with open arms. He went to see the man who has spent his post presidential years building houses for the needy and helping those around the globe most in need. Jimmy Carter. A man scoffed at by the right for being a weak president. Nope their idea of a leader is a porn star bedding, lying, bully who cannot hold a candle to the man Jimmy Carter is. Can you imagine a young Republican going to see Trump down the road? Not seeking wisdom. Wondering, instead, how he got away with all that stuff.
1
The next Debate question for Biden should be
"if you are elected President, will you have your son, Hunter, reinstated on the Board of Burismo, the Ukrainian energy company, so that he can more Ukrainian cash?"
2
If Biden gets the nomination his selection of VP candidate is crucial -- he will need someone younger and charismatic who can serve up sharp attacks against Trump and the GOP. Not another Tim Kaine -- a nice, accomplished man with all the charisma of warm milk.
And Biden himself has to be ready for the knife-fight-in-a-phone booth of this election. You can't ignore a bully like Trump or hope that better angels will prevail; you've got to show right away that you won't be intimidated and you'll defend yourself.
Trump has an insulting nickname for you? Get some writer to come up with an equally insulting one for him. And use it frequently so it sticks just like "Crooked Hillary."
If Trump tries any ridiculous tactics like when he loomed over HRC at the debates, confront him immediately.
When the GOP trots out Biden's many gaffes, counter each and every one with something stupid from Trump. You won't have to look far.
These may all sound petty, but they show voters you won't be bullied or intimidated. People need to believe you will stand up for them, and that begins with standing up for yourself. John Kerry, an actual combat veteran, did not respond properly to the Swift Boat ads and as a result he somehow ended up looking like the weaker man in contrast to draft-dodger Shrub. Appearances matter.
51
We will lose against Trump with Biden
1
Could we possibly hope for one of the Obamas in a cabinet position? I'd like to see our best first lady ever give Joe a hand, or her other half - y'now, I miss that smile.
Jill Biden.
She belongs in the White House. I'll vote for her guy anytime.
2
Mondale 1984.
Kerry 2004.
Biden 2020? Really?
2
I know you’re a New York Times columnist, with all that denotes, but the Dems took your advice specifically? I believe you’re overstating your influence.
1
I think a speculative argument that could be made is that they took Obama's advice and not yours... but hairsplitting aside: Good call.
Now... I'm not asking you to disclose what you do... but...
I think I speak for many of us on the left who headed (or will head) the infinite wisdom of doomsaying centrists (yet again, yet again)...
We did or will do our part—against our better judgment...
...And now we hope to see you set aside your wedge disagreements and pull the lever for the man.
Or an even simpler explanation works:
There are more people who will tolerate a racist in the Republican party than will tolerate a socialist in the Democratic Party.
3
Voting for Joe
Where have you been, Joe, all of my life –
All wrinkles and bags; then under the knife -
You’re tamped down and smoothed ne’er to perfection
With hopes, always high, to win the election;
But Dumb and Dumber, you’re a cut above Trump,
Bound to stumble when you’re out on the stump;
No matter, Joe, ‘bout as dumb as they come,
You’ll get my vote to oust Trump on his bum.
1
Bruce,
You underestimate Trump's vileness.
"Democrats took my advice, and it worked."
Yes, you did it Ross! Without you it would have never been possible!
For a supposed Never Trumper you make a fine show of occasionally questioning Trump yet inevitably back him, all while attacking every Democrat as depraved. (You specifically called Biden a "strategic" liar who, though raised Roman Catholic, possesses totally "dispensable" morality).
It certainly makes you sound a whole lot like....
Trump.
1
Donald Trump was smiling, smirking, hacking, interfering and meddling Vladimir Putin and his henchman Benjamin Netanyahu's choice in 2016 as the American President who could make them and their nations great again.
Brooklyn Bernard Sanders is Vlad and Bibi's choice for the Democratic Party Presidential nominee to most likely lose to their Queens Donald Trump mutual pawn pet puppet in 2020.
1
The Dems don' stand a chance unless they get Progressives on board. Biden should do everything h can to get Liz Warren on the ticket as early as possible.
1
Your comment about "taking my advice" is the height of hubris. Do you really think that your columns have that much influence? If you do, you are as mad as Trump.
1
This article was so insightful. It totally justified my NYT subscription.
Bernie Bro’s: don’t blow it. Trump is awful. Vote for the Democrat who is the nominee!
Joe Biden/MIchelle Obama for Prez/VP!
Took "your advice"? Oh please, sanctimonious Ross is at again, unable to give credit where it is due. Heaven help us.
1
Biden is like like mac-n-cheese. We're longing for some comfort food after a daily diet of Trump's toxic slops over the last 3+ years.
1
Gee, Mr Douthat. You’re so prescient.
Do ya really think Dems took your advice? Or maybe folks can come to their own conclusions. Perhaps you should get out more.
1
Good for you Ross, you got a Republican lite candidate!
1
"They took my advice" wow can you fit in the elevator with such a big, fat head?
1
The robust ego of Mr. Douthat. I will NEVER take your advice thank you. And while I'm at it; keep your grubby hands off reproductive rights.
No fewer than three anti-Sanders pro-Biden editorials in the Times in one day! The Times is in service to power.
2
So glad they listened to you Ross. Where would the party be without you.
1
Keep dividing the country so you can sell ads! pathetic
1
As voters, moderates did something they usually don't do, because, well, they are moderates.
They stood up on their hind legs and roared.
No Ross it wasn't you who consolidated the Democratic Party it was James Clyburn. You are just like Trump, taking credit for something you didn't do especially if it is an African-American who did it. Shame on you.
Another generation of nothing for "we the people!" Media just cares that you keep us divided so you can sell ads. typical, pathetic, muck rakers!
1
Wall St. backs Biden. Shows you who Biden works for and you fools once again get suckered into voting against your own self-interest. By the way, I own some bridges in NYC I'd love to sell you.
2
Democrats are the real #NeverTrumpers They believe in humanity and the responsibility we have to each other and the future. There is no evidence that Republican's do. This belief of Democrats means that Democrats face choices where there are outcomes good for humanity and the future, but challenging for us individuals In these situations, Democrats pick the future and Republican's pick themselves without regard to the future. It's not complicated. However, when one is deceiving one's self as Ross is, one attempts to develop an elaborate set of reasons.
Also - the notion that the democratic candidates for president read his article and 'took his advice' is egocentric and hilarious at the same time.
Obama swept in with anti-Bush tail wind after a dismal war & credit collapse. Ecstatic voters and most African-Americans turned out in a heady reach for intelligence--not revolution.
Trump swept in with HRC's flaws & a severe blacklash, toxic masculinity, bitter fantasies of renewed white supremacy as his tail wind. Putin helped by stoking Trump's personal anti-Obama vengence and suppressing & fragmenting turn out.
Biden is liked but not loved. He has huge vulnerabilities but his tail wind is the mounting sense of repulsion for Trump's incompetence, ignorance, embarrassing self-promoting swagger and utter failure to appoint reliable experts. His inability to attract or retain top notch NSC, federal agency & intel staff has been alarming- as he seeks only sycophants, cronies & toadies.
Trump's 35% base may shrink as the recognition that most of his grandstanding (North Korea, Iran, Ukraine, Taliban) has been empty bluster, making America a patsy to Russian & Saudi agendas.
The jolt of covid-19 woke up Americans to the value of competent government and the public interest. Trump's fatal error was posturing to keep Markets from crashing vs. starting full court preparation in January. His trajectory cannot be saved by the malignant campaign he undoubtedly plans- just as Roy Cohn was sunk by another virus- vitriole & HIV.
1
All the “moderates” are delivering their smug “consensus” but this is not greatness. It just shows how stupid, cowardly and myopic the majority of Americans are. This is capitulation to mediocrity.
2
"the democrats took my advice"
Ross, As always, your self-love doth runneth over.
2
Took *your* advice, Ross??
1
Tuesday the Democratic Party committed suicide.
2
Wow, I can't believe you missed the main point: Biden was anointed by African Americans in South Carolina! Pundits called the win there a "blow out"!
The NY Times needs one actual real voice on the left. Enough ex-Republicans telling us that real change is impossible.
3
Hey Ross, what's your advice to your own party on how to get rid of the pompous little dictator who is destroying the Constitution of the US. You remind me of a vendor selling cheap soap to people as they went into the "showers".
3
The Reublican party is fairly homogeneous and can maneuver like a herd. The Democratic party moves like 5 different species at once.
Post script on Liz Warren: It was her first rodeo. She was important because she bridged the "anti corporate" v. "corporate divide" with the message of regulation - I have a plan for that. However, politics in real life is not so much theory.
Now we are left with the same divide and we shall hear a lot of gobbly-gook from Biden which nobody believes or a lot of sturm and drang from Bernie which the frightened extremist right wing of the dem party will believe a little too much for its own good.
2
Yeah, it was all because "the Democrats took my advice." Geez! How full of yourself you are, Douthat.
1
Biden = Trump.
1
This is an okay column but Ross you should never been chosen to present Biden's case and the fact that you were shows the times' disrespect for Biden
1
It is now clear that the Democratic establishment prefers to run a negative campaign against Trump rather than a positive campaign in support of actual ideas for our country.
It could be a winning strategy for the Democratic party, but probably not for the American people. I can only imagine the promises made to money and power to get Joe to this point in the "democratic" process.
2
Dear Betsy,
We still hardly know ye. I appreciate that, as Professor and Senator Liz Warren, you keenly understand and challenge the siren call of money and power in Washington. However, I prefer to see you as Betsy from Oklahoma because it speaks more directly to your life-long experience in “the last mile” of our society where most of humanity live and struggle. You, among the remaining candidates seeking to unify our country in a senior capacity, are uniquely qualified to institutionalize trust in our corridors of power by rebooting capitalism. Stay the course in whatever capacity you best determine.
1
The never Sanders may have won. But will it cost them the House and the Presidency?
2
In 2016, NeverTrumpet Republicans held their nose because they were more anti-Hillary than neverTrump. And Bernie Sanders and his Berners were more interested in their Revolution than never ZTrup idea. And I am afraid Bernie and his followeres are behaving the same way this year and we are going to have Four more years of dissolution of the American constitution led by Mitch and his makeover of federal court.
Ross, if you are a never-Tumpet, are you just a Republican pandit who will hold his nose again and vote for Trump or actively canvass agaonst Trump?
1
Yuck.
I am no rabid Sanders supporter, but the moderate self-satisfaction dripping from this column really bothered me.
Sure, I’ll vote for Uncle Joe, but he is nothing to get excited about. He has been mostly incoherent, has brought few (no?) new ideas to the table, and will continue to deliver for the moderates who seem to need it much less than those on the sharper side of growing inequality.
But he’s better than Trump, moderates reply. Who isn’t?
But he can win, they say. I’m not so sure, given HRC, Kerry, Gore, and what we’ve seen so far. No matter how many endorsements or billionaires are propping him up, I’m not sure this much satisfaction and confidence is warranted.
4
I was surprised last night watching the first Sanders commercial featuring Barrack Obama. Now the two contenders will be disputing the Obama legacy.
I found amusing that Sanders' commercial picked scenes of Sanders going to the WH on the occasion Obama asked him to drop the race and give the space to Clinton who had the most delegates already back then. Maybe a premonition?
Douthat wrote: "But instead, in a whirlwind few days, the Democrats took my advice, and it worked."
Your advice? Don't flatter yourself. Every Democrat understood what was at stake. Sanders is too radical. He might lose the general election! Calling yourself a "socialist" is toxic in the U.S. Saying anything good about Castro is political suicide.
I support Warren and I fear Biden is losing his marbles, but I would have voted for Biden if Georgia was part of Super Tuesday.
This all happened so quickly and in such an orderly manner that it seems certain that there were behind the scenes power brokers twisting arms. That probably wouldn’t reflect well on the party. But to keep the matter secret would be dishonest. I trust that journalists will do their job and seek out the truth. The story that Buttigieg, Klobuchar and even Bloomberg made instantaneous and spontaneous decisions strikes me as far fetched.
2
I'd add that in 2016, there was a false assumption by voters that the Republican mainstream would hold the line on Trump excesses. What has taken place is the exact opposite. And the nation has had an excellent and clear view of the character, incompetence, and mean-spirited truth of the president. In the words of Donald Rumsfeld, he's a known known. And has to be replaced for the sake of he country and the globe.
2
Take a look at Tuesday’s results on a map. The states that Biden won are mostly southern and mostly red. They lean right. Sanders appears to have done well in the blue states, winning the biggest one. Before you conclude Biden can win the nomination, you might want to wait to see how some of the bluer states vote. Unless you’re simply trying to affect the outcome with your spin.
The Democratic race is now a choice between wishing to go back to the time before Trump, or moving ahead to a time when sane American majorities agree government must play a sizable role in solving the severe problems we face.
The establishment Democrats and the tools who enjoy their patronage networks would have you believe that Trump is an aberration. They know better.
Trump is a symptom of a much larger problem known as today’s Republican party. Get rid of Trump, and he will simply be replaced. The rot will remain.
Democrats who believe we can appease the Republican party in effect enable the rot. And become part of it.
We need real change. A lot more change than Obama delivered.
Vote Sanders.
5
Biden is ahead for one reason: Democrats think he has the best chance of beating Trump. For most of us there simply is no other issue.
4
Biden's victory is the victory of big money politics. The Democrats are the conservative party. OK with money dominating the political process. The GOP of Trump is a wacko greed fest of the plutocrats. When Obama was president the supreme court decision on Citizens United was handed down. There were howls of indignation from the Democrats. Rush Limbaugh chortled money is free speech. Warren and Sanders thought like Brandeis that concentrations of wealth create dangerous concentrations of political power. Concentration of wealth at the top is now a run away freight train. The Democrats have acclimated to Citizens United as the way politics is run. Sanders' grass roots mov't was seen as a threat to big power corporatist interests. Democracy for the poor and the middle class against the big money/power interests that control the politics of the country. Democracy so the interests of the non politically connected voices can be heard. The stock market explosion following Biden's good showing on super Tuesday speaks volumes.
3
Does no one else fear the image of Biden and Trump in debate? I foresee Trump attacking, willing to go anywhere (including comparing sexual attributes) and Biden stumbling. Many of us are not wholly convinced that Hunter Biden's extraordinary sinecure in Ukraine was not the result of hidden shenanigans -- what are we to make of that? Trump will make everything he can of it. I understand people being fearful of Sanders but I don't understand why no one seems concerned about Biden and Ukraine.
4
Ross you neglected to state the obvious: everyone in the party so dislikes Trump that they feel an overwhelming urge to ensure his defeat. Plus the moderates know with a moderate nominee there are actually a great number of Republicans who also detest Trump and know his climate denial, his active destruction of laws to protect the environment, his shelter skelter foreign policy and his ignorance of economics and global trade are not good for the future of the country. Those people may split their votes to keep the Republicans in charge of the Senate but they will secretly vote for Biden.
2
Did you confirm with the campaigns that they "took your advice?" I doubt that, Mr. Douthat. You are a reporter and facts are in order, even in an opinion piece. A little humility, please.
2
I agree with Ross that the maturity of the candidates in the "moderate lane" (which is funny because Buttigieg, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, and Biden are all liberals and Bloomberg is at least a liberal on social issues if more moderate on economic issues and bullish on capitalilsm) and their willingness to command their egos and step aside was key. But the Biden transformation started in that last debate where watching all his opponents run over their time, and his time up on a question said: "I don't know why I stop (when no one else does)". And then he stopped. Humility and respect for the rules is the sort of trait prized by Americans. I think people softened with that, and it allowed Biden to fight back on some points in a way that was not personal. Add James Clyburn's emotional endorsement, a big win in SC, message discipline by Biden, and there you have it. He's not exciting, but if he can "Beat Trump. Period. Period!", it might be worth waiting four more years for the change we need. Or perhaps he will find a way to recognize the change we need and bring it about. If Nixon can go to China...
1
At time of writing, Biden has 566 delegates (47% of total), Sanders has 501 delegates (41% of total) - [there are others not worth counting].
Why is this paper heralding this as some sort of inexorable victory for Biden?
The Bible Belt (which includes Virginia) has voted for "nothing much will change"! Fine. Let's see what the rest of the country has to say...
2
The best thing that Bloomberg can do for Biden is to give Hunter Biden an engagement where Hunter must first resign from all other engagements. And on the Bloomberg engagement, Hunter should go to an isolated cabin in southern Patagonia, where he will remain for the next 12 months, awaiting further orders.
2
The analysis is wrong. Trump succeeded because Republican voters embraced his lies, divisiveness and fear mongering. And the reason is that they have been fed the same lies, divisiveness and fear mongering by the right wing media.
Thankfully truth, unity and love prevails on the other side.
Over the last three long, long years of the Trump era (error?), we've had a 1,001 stories from midwestern diners and farm feed lots about how Trump could do no wrong, how those who supported him would rather die than move away.
All this while, we've had very few stories about how repulsed many across the nation are by Trump. The turnout in the primaries, however, indicates there could a massive response building against Trumpism by voters.
From the Times reporting:
"Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles, a national co-chairman of Mr. Biden’s campaign, cited turnout increases of 76 percent in three Virginia congressional districts that include parts of Norfolk and the suburbs of Washington and Richmond.
Over all, 1.3 million voters in Virginia went to the polls on Tuesday, surpassing the votes cast in 2016 by nearly 70 percent and, even more stunningly, breaking a previous Democratic record of 986,000 votes set in 2008, when Barack Obama was on the ballot.
Democratic turnout on Tuesday was up broadly compared with 2016 — with Texas up 49 percent, Tennessee up 38 percent, and Vermont and North Carolina both increasing by 16 percent."
Democrats dropped the ball last time. In '16, people were told Hillary was sure to win and even Trump didn't expect a victory. Now, having lived with Trumpist disruption, it seems millions are bone tired and electrically charged to throw him out. Maybe.
2
Am I the only one who finds it hilarious that Douthat says he offered the advice for the party to consolidate & "in a whirlwind few days, the Democrats took my advice, and it worked." Yeah, that's what happened, the entire Democratic party read your column Ross & then adjusted accordingly. Narcissism much? Maybe you should write a column that Warren's matched narcissism is keeping Bernie down. But she doesn't listen to you, unlike apparently the rest of the party.
3
One observation on the Biden candidacy: The level of dread from the left that Mr. Biden will utter something clumsy or inappropriate is fascinating given that Mr. Trump is granted an unlimited pass for his continuous verbal and written offenses and embarrassments. Something is outrageously out-of-balance on that point.
2
Unexciting Biden, a Democrat Calvin Coolidge, is the fallback candidate to beat Trump. For a Progressive Party bent on changing the world boring Joe will just have to do. And that's not all bad.
Maybe America is ready for a little less excitement from the White House. Whether Bernie's 'crazies' are up for this is the open issue.
1
A lot of pretending here that Joe Biden is a viable candidate. He often appears less than of sound mind. And he’s burdened with a cargo of scandal from the grifting and money-laundering operation he and his son, Hunter, ran in Ukraine. The party is asking for humiliation in consolidating around him.
3
For all of the comparisons you make between 2016 Trump and 2020 Sanders you're missing one key difference in which demographics are being left out to dry here. While Trump's coalition was led by a shrinking American minority of white, low-educated voters in 2016, Sanders' coalition this year of young and Latino voters are a growing demographic of voters in the country. Ironically, while the GOP couldn't manage their hijackers, the Dems chose to alienate a huge bloc of voices that are soon going to be the bread-and-butter of their party.
Enjoy Biden mumbling and bumbling his way all the way to the 2020 nomination while you can because hard changes to the Dems are coming and politicians in the mold of AOC and Sanders have already won the future.
1
This is such tripe. Where are the voters? THEY chose pragmatism and equinimity over lies and nastiness. One needn't concede that Democrats are uniformly more virtuous to acknowledge that rank and file primary voters are behaving more thoughtfully and strategically than Republicans did in 2016. And more important, in picking a candidate like Biden these same voters are comporting themselves with more civility and charity towards their political opponents than Republicans have in more than a decade. Democrats managed to participate in the making of the sausage without dirtying their consciences. They should be proud. And they should keep up the good work!
3
In typical fashion, a journalist pundit like Douthat takes credit for what the voters actually did. No, we didn't "follow your advice." What we did was ignore all of the claptrap from journalists that had anointed Saint Bernie as "unstoppable." The only thing you accomplished was to alarm the core of the Democratic Party to get out and vote against a socialist that we know will sink not only our Party in the Presidential race, but in all the down-ticket races as well. And unlike Bernie, we also knew from 2016 that Bernie's youthful supporters enjoy partying at his rallies more than they are willing to stand in line for 3 hours like I did yesterday, in order to vote in Los Angeles County. I stood in line next to a woman who told me that her 20-something son who she described as over 6 feet tall and healthy, stood in line for about 45 minutes and then told her he was "worried about the coronavirus," so he went home. We 60-somethings, on the other hand, who are more at risk, gutted it out for 3 hours and voted. So much for Bernie's plan of "turning out the younger vote," and the Democratic Party's delusional fascination for a short time that his younger supporters would translate to increased Democratic Party turnout.
The Democratic Party consolidation shows that the "evil" party establishment has the backbone so proven lacking with Republicans
1
Maybe Trump Republicans should take some lessons from Virginia and start peeling off from the Toxic Tweeter before he consigns the entire GOP to the dustbin of history. Wall Street has already indicated it doesn't have much faith in Trump's efforts to contain the coronavirus and the smart money has started moving to Biden.
1
In short, Mr Douthat, Republican field was so despicable, corrupt and unable to work together that Trump conquered them without sweat.
Democratic field f candidates in 2020, on the other hand, are quite respectable politicians who generally like each other and were unable to land heavy punches. Coming together over the last weekend was easy.
This is all to confusing for me.... we had a whistle blower then a Trump meltdown in front of cameras, a Republican house meltdown, then Republican’s exonerate him in the Senate only to have Biden run against him this fall. Gee what’s Trump going to do now, every-time he brings up crooked Joe the media going to turn on Trump and he will loose votes.
Gloating is no fun to watch. Biden might have been the safer choice, it remains to be seen; but Bernie is no Socialist Monster.
3
Completely erroneous Ross. The Republican base wasn't "disillusioned" as you write after George W. Bush. It was waiting for a true bigot to run for president who reflected its own racial bias.
As your colleague Mr. Edsall wrote a few weeks ago the Republican base was essentially the Tea Party, which even you would agree had a strong racial tinge to it.
Democrats are patriots. Because they truly cherish democracy, free speech, dissent, etc., you know the things that make America ...America. They like Bernie, but clearly believe Biden will better reflect our democracy.
Republicans not so much. They will continue to blindly follow the buffoonish bigot in the white house.
1
Justice will be served when Trump is not only defeated in November but arrested shortly thereafter.
2
Watching from way across the Atlantic I see a couple of things. One is that Bloomberg’s candidacy sharpened up all the issues around the weakness of big money as a draw for Dem voters, bringing the issue of unfair distribution of economic power into focus in a strong way. The other is that people are getting completely fed up with Trump’s unrelenting, disgusting negativity. Given all the other things mentioned in this article, this surge for Biden looks to me like a strong choice for decency. Aren’t we just fed to the teeth with yelling and insults?
1
Not sure the Party "took your advice." Millions have been crying out for a moderate, sane candidate with integrity (at least as much as a politician can have) to run against the most evil president ever to rule America.
1
This is a very cogent explanation of Super Tuesday and why the Democratic Party finally coalesced around Biden. Thank you for your insight.
Didn't ya'll say that Russia is helping Bernie's campaign?
If Russia is this bad in "helping" in our elections .. Kudos to Trump for winning '16 in spite of Russia's help.
2
Gosh, everyone stop with the conspiracy theories. Perhaps a lot of us voted or are voting for Biden because either:
a: He is our preferred option
b: Our preferred candidate is no longer in the race and Biden's views most closely align with theirs and ours.
c: We think he is in a better position to beat Trump.
No Democratic operative came to me at night and poured magic vote serum in my ear to force me to pick Biden. I did it for reasons B and C outlined above.
But, I will absolutely, unreservedly support and vote for Sanders if he eventually wins the nomination. Joe and Bernie are far apart on many issues, but compared to the thing in the White House, they are pretty close.
If you care about the climate, women's rights, not going to war with Iran and yes, healthcare, voting Democratic, no matter who the nominee is, is a no-brainer.
If you sit this out, you are no better than the rabid Trump supporters. Moderate or progressive, I will hold you responsible.
Douthat, the Democratic Party did not take your advise. The Party decided what was the best course of action and took it.
When you talk about why the Democrats rally you missed the simple fact that they put country before party. Republicans are incapable of doing that.
Great analysis, except that the Democrats did not "take your advice." They (We) did this on their (our) own.
"But instead, in a whirlwind few days, the Democrats took my advice, and it worked." Thank god you were the only person to have that idea otherwise think of the mess we would be in...
1
The kids may be all right but when push comes to shove they don’t vote. Bernie waving his hands emphatically like your grumpy uncle complaining about traffic will never attract young people without youth itself beckoning. Too bad Mayor Pete is brilliant but staid. Maybe he could do a bit of a makeover?
Glad to hear that the NeverTrump contingent is pleased with the outcome and let's not forget about Bloomberg's billions.
Then again, I have to wonder if you will feel the same way when the Burisma hearings start and we all know how that is going to turn out.
And that is just the beginning Ross...
Then again, Sanders is a juicy target as well...
Well, what can one say Ross. We Democrats do tend to stick to the tried and true, then ask ourselves why we lose.
I just hope Biden understands how dirty things are going to get, how relentless it will be and let's hope Bloomberg buys the election.
3
Biden won the the southern states mostly with the support of African American voters. The stock market went up approx 5% the next day.
African Americans are not known to have any significant stock ownership. The contradiction is obvious. But it begs for a deep political and economic explanation.
People vote against their economic self interest; this is now a well known study. Politicians can manufacture their consent by exploiting their credulity.
Like a candy makes a crying child quiet and even obey the candy-giver's orders.
Republicans do this to their base voters and the Dems do it to their base voters. Biden's wins are a reminder of that. Biden has not done anything significant thing for African Americans - be it his support for anti-busing agenda, harsh sentences for drug offences that affect the minority voters disproportionately, his support of anti-bankruptcy legislation, and not least, his support of Justice Clarence Thomas against Anita Hill.
3
This is an anti-progressive article.
The surrender to Biden on Monday was a planned exercised. It was designed to cut the legs out from under the Sanders and Warren campaigns. Someone inside the DNC will write a book about it but for now they're being mum.
For me, as a Warren supporter from way back in the early 00s, I will never support her again if she caves in to Biden.
I will vote for Biden this November if he is the nominee. I'm not expecting much. The establishment is too well entrenched with big donors, wall street, banks etc.: they are as corrupt as the people they fight and often as hypocritical.
4
Ross,
One point you do not mention is a lot of liberals like myself who agree with Sander's policies, really did not like his insurgent style.
I supported Steve Bullock heavily- thought he was the dream candidate. Popular Gov of a red state. Biden's ego made him run... He is clearly stumbling I'm nervous about the wheels coming off this bus.
2
For the first time this primary season, I'm truly excited in ways reminiscent of 2008. There was no excitement in 2016, Hillary had my vote sans my excitement. It seems like the country is collectively understanding the stakes are far too high to risk backing an unproven prototype with questionable crossover appeal. Though I believe whoever the nominee is should find victory in November, with Biden as the nominee it feels more real than wishful thinking. He isn't my dream candidate, but the stakes are too high to require every box to be checked. When I boil it down, I just want to check a single box, next to "WINNNER!!!"
Biden was comfortably the worst of the Democratic candidates. A fabulist with bad judgement on his best day, and his best day is now a distant memory.
It is a shocking indictment of the Democratic party that such an inadequate candidate is in such a good position.
3
It remains a mystery to me why the Republican electorate is so enamored a the hateful bully Trump. Even if I would reap great personal benefits from Trump, I would never under any circumstances support such a hateful person. Continuously making fun of people like a grade school bully - contemptible. I fear that even if a less revolting Democrat wins the election, we still have to live in and govern a country of people, about 40% of whom revel in hatefulness. How do we address this problem?
1
Pathetic that a “right enough person” is the go to guy/gal. Joe has articulated no policy plans other than “more of the same.” Not trump but also not what will move us forward. Of course he’ll get my vote if the nominee, but holding my nose and with no sense that our corporate oligarchy will be at all diminished. 
2
Mitch McConnell is holding up 400 bills sent by Bipartisan
Congressional members. The Republican Party elites are
anti-American.
2
Ross, thanks for saving the day! If Trump is dethroned, we owe it all to you!
1
Biden is an old man in obvious cognitive decline. It’s a mistake for Democrats to pin our hopes on him.
4
Please not Sanders...because fighting for healthcare and education and minimum wage is just a bridge too far...for Democrats?? Sad state this country is in.
3
It’s sad to see Ross Douthat buy into the Biden Baloney. What actually happened: the Democrats saw disaster starting at them and forced the moderates out of the race, while allowing the left vote to be split between Warren and Sanders. So Biden “won” primaries that he would have come in third or fourth in in the normal course of events. In the largest and most diverse state (California), where people were actually able to vote for the candidates they wanted, he got clobbered. This is Hillary Clinton II—but much worse. Douthat needs to offer a more independent perspective or move on to another medium.
1
It is refreshing to read Ross Douthat tell us today that all the Republicans running for President in 2016 were loathsome. Surrounded by all that prose, a shining nugget of truth.
2
Warren deserves more credit for Biden's late surge/consolidation than anyone else. By gutting Bloomberg she helped Biden far more than herself.
2
Bloomberg had one purpose in this race ...... stop Bernie Sanders. He never intended to be the Democratic candidate, he was there to divide the Democratic Party, gather as many votes as possible, then turn those votes over to the candidate most likely to beat Bernie Sanders. Why? Because the elite group Bloomberg represents was determined to protect Israel from the effects of a Sanders presidency.
I hope that this ploy becomes evident to the voters and the strategy backfires. I hope this sleazy foreign meddling in the US election results in even more votes for Bernie Sanders.
1
Biden was the lucky beneficiary of a foreign group's meddling in the US election. Bloomberg was key to dividing the voters, then gathering enough voters and handing them over to the candidate deemed most capable of beating Sanders.
The "PleaseNotSanders" is a product aimed at preventing Sander's idea of making respect of human rights and international law the foundation of US foreign policy ...... which would be disastrous to that group's project to colonize and annex the Palestinian West Bank and to subjugate the Palestinian people.
2
The establishment made Biden come back. Some called this democracy. Others moneycracy.
1
I'm hardcore Bernie, but I'll be happy to vote for Biden if he puts Stacy Abrams on the ticket. We'll lose the youth enthusiasm (maybe), but it'd turn out the black folk and bankers and the uptight republicans one and all.
I hope to God Bernie gets creamed next Tuesday, and gives up gracefully. I love that man, and don't want to see him go down in flames.
I think Joe Biden is going to get shellacked in the debates by Trump. He's half gone, let's be honest. This wouldn't be the first time an empire put a figurehead up for stability. He's amiable, and can pick a good team with Obama's and Warren's help together hopefully.
Just please, no Clintons.
1
NeverTrump failed because conservatives live and breathe in a "Fox News" & Limbaugh talk radio bubble. Dems are more enlightened when it comes to discerning about their leaders.
1
Really thought the Democrats were going to blow this one.
Biden will get elected in a 50 state landslide.
Republicans may fall in line, but they are egotistical and always have safer places. That now changes. Keep cheating and stay classy
1
The Republican Party for decades has been selling from an empty wagon, as Paul Krugman explicates and “reform conservatives” acknowledge in their different way. The Republicans’ vortex of nihilism is far bigger than “. . . some institutional potency, some ballast as a political organization, some capacity to make decisions as a party . . .”
1
"The Great Biden Consolidation"
"Why Biden Is the Change Candidate"
"Biden Just Performed a Miracle"
Who believes any of this?
1
Seriously, Joe is not up to this challenge.
1
The Republican Party is no longer a legitimate party within the American political tradition, as pointed out by Mike Lofgren in "The Party is Over" -- a Trumpist personality cult, as pointed out by John Boehner.
1
Heaven knows we need more nice people in politics and Joe clearly fits that description. I think (hope) that more than just Dems are fed up with Trump's vitriol and playground bully-boy persona. Yes, there are obviously massive differences of opinion but all other Presidents in recent memory kept it civil and displayed good manners at all times. It's high time to arrest this infantilisation of politics and Joe Biden is the man to do it!
Another factor is that moderates, who still dominate the Democratic Party, are much more attuned to the workings of the federal government and have watched, with great alarm, as Donald Trump has engaged in a scorched earth policy across the federal government, sharply cutting key government programs, and replacing experienced professionals with ideologues, or former industry lobbyists whose only requirements is complete loyalty to Donald Trump. Among the candidates, Joe Biden was one of the few who offered stability, "real" governmental experience, a willingness to compromise, and respect for federal institutions.
3
I voted in the California primary yesterday -- the first presidential vote in my 20 years living here that actually felt like it mattered. I voted Biden, even though a week ago I never would've guessed that would be my vote. It just felt like the right thing to do. I'm feeling more hopeful for the Democrats than I have in years. Not because Biden is my dream candidate (is he anyone's?), but because it finally feels like we are putting party and country above all else.
569
@LM Yes, @LM, I wanted Warren but she had jumped out much to aggressive on sticky issues like doing away with Health Ins Companies completely. For some centrists, she may have seemed too militant.
Biden will push to strengthen the ACA which has helped millions. He is also a rational, healthy alternative to the monster in the WH now. Much will depend on his VP selection and, going forward, who he selects for his cabinet.
49
@LM Well said. I did the exact same thing in Orinda, CA. Who knows what will happen, but presidents are often elected in reaction to the person who preceded them. In the age of Trump, there are _lot_ of voters out there craving a moderate who can be President of the entire country--and that includes Democrats and Republicans. In that respect, Biden is the anti-Trump. Godspeed (and thank you Amy and Pete).
51
@Harold Anthony And speaking of the cabinet and the team of rivals concept some are mentioning, we need all the senators running to stay in the senate! Otherwise we have no chance of reclaiming it! Tough times and tough choices/decisions to be made in a messy process!
21
I admit that I felt smug last night and this morning that we Please Not Bernie people succeeded in turning the ship around in the nick of time unlike the Never Trumpers. When I saw that George Conway's pinned tweet was of his maxing out a donation to Biden I also felt like we kept folks like Ross in mind. Joe Biden is far to the left of Never Trump Republicans but I think many will vote for him because he is a decent human being who will restore democratic norms. And to the Sanders supporters I say that if you had turned out large numbers of young voters in the early contests I might have been more willing to consider him, but you did not and I spoke to way too many middle aged liberals who said they would never vote for Bernie to risk that the general election would be different than the primary. African Americans and educated folks are the most reliable Dem voters and they concluded that Biden was the best shot. I am just so proud that we didn't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and for those on the left who are threatening not to vote I would paraphrase Greta "how dare you?" How dare you when the stakes are so high and so many will suffer irreparable harm if Trump is reelected. I will vote for Bernie if he is the nominee, but I am relieved that it seems like I won't have to do so.
322
@Tracy
Hard to hear Greta referenced when the election of Joe will delay the climate action that would otherwise take place with a more progressive president.
7
@Tracy Biden will lose in Nov, and worse than Clinton.
4
@Tracy "African Americans and educated folks are the most reliable Dem voters and they concluded that Biden was the best shot."
I agree. Those uneducated latinos, young people, and progressives who refuse to vote for incoherancy,...
How dare they attempt to have their voices heard above the media noise.
5
I think one of the most effective uses of Bloomberg's money when he was running for the nomination were the mailings he sent to everyone in the country. These were well done, in my opinion, and clearly made his case. In looking at the maps after the primaries, Bloomberg did quite well in the rural areas, where many people would have no access to the candidates but did receive his mailings. If he would fund similar mass mailings for Biden, I think it could be just as effective.
1
I agree that Biden is a likable, middle-of-the road good old boy with lots of political capital, nonthreatening for those who hold power. I see two problems with his candidacy. First of all, we do need a more progressive candidate to make this country more fair. Biden is a beacon of the center right Democratic party of the last few decades that failed its base and gave us Donald Trump. Secondly, we need an energetic, sharp candidate to compete with Trump and lead this country forward. Biden is no longer sharp. Those of us who watched him on the debate stage couldn't fail to notice how his mind meandered all over the place and instead of presenting clear plans for the future he recited a convoluted litany of past accomplishment. There will be plenty of voters who will not vote, or not vote for Biden, because they won't see him as progressive and sharp. So let's not pretend we finally found a Savior against Trump. It's far from clear we did.
3
I urge all Democrats to vote their conscience rather than cave to unfounded assumptions about "electability." And I'm trying to be pragmatic. Let me explain.
Even if, as is likely, the current incarnation of the National Democratic Party will ultimately decide this election (reread the NYTime's story from last week about the superdelegates), it is crucial that the party hear--and in no uncertain terms--the views of its more progressive wing. The fact that two progressives were in the "Final Five" lineup is heartening, given the frustrations that I and millions of other voters have had with an "establishment" that tunes out income disparity and blatant need in favor of its own money and power. The party badly needs a wakeup call from its own, and unless it heeds the message, it will self-destruct or in 2021 face a mass exodus in favor of a formal Progressive Party.
I'm a lifelong Democrat. When I was growing up, the party was "the party of all except the rich," but it seems to have learned what the GOP has known since the 1960s: People can be manipulated to ignore their self-interests.
A strong progressive showing in state primaries is crucial if the party is to reform itself. Left to its own devices, it won't change. I had hoped for such in 2016, but the party brass are obviously deaf, dumb, and blind. Time to shout in their ear and open their eyes.
3
It remains to be seen if this movement against Sanders (because it is not really a movement for Joe Biden) can be sustained when, in the next debate, Biden shows the same weaknesses that he has shown in previous ones. If Biden cannot show that he can keep up with Sanders in the debates, the argument that he is the man to beat Trump will fizz away rapidly. This race is far from over.
3
Mike Bloomberg wanted to be involved.
A number of commentators now recognize his strategy. He wanted to rid America of Donald Trump and surmised that Bernie Sanders could not do it. He knew he could not be effective as a Sheldon Adelson type supporter, so he dove in. He avoided low population states such as Iowa and NH and placed ads in and competed in high traffic areas such as Texas and California. He wanted to reach as much of America as possible.
He knew his exit from the race would most likely be after Super Tuesday and he did so without hesitation, throwing his support behind Joe Biden.
Mike surely moved around outside of his comfort zone and not only in the debates. He worked areas other than NYC and in one instance addressed an audience some of whom turned his back on him. I’m sure he learned some life changing lessons.
He is now a voice in the race. He can go out and appear on TV in support of Joe – with much more clout than if he had been a bystander. He is now a significant part of the Biden consolidation.
Nothing wrong with the way this billionaire used his cash. Bravo Mr. Bloomberg!
4
A very well thought and written column. This restores my faith in the quality of NY Times opinion writers. Even though I am a Bernie supporter I find this article very accurate and without a forceful bending of facts to satisfy writer's conservative beliefs. Now can Mr. Thomas Friedman, when he gets some time from blind praise of Bloomberg, read this article too? That will help him to get out of his CEO universe into the real world and see things as they are. Thank you Mr. Douthat. Very good column.
Perhaps Biden's idea that the Obama years were pretty good and that Obama was a good president is resonating finally in the light of the Trump years. Furthermore, it is tough to compare the NeverTrumpers with the NeverSanders people because ultimately, the NeverSanders people are still working on a lot of evidence and the NeverTrumpers are still void of evidence-based policy.
2
Bernie lost by 3.7 million in 2016 to a candidate people weren't that excited about. But we were told by his supporters, give him time to make himself known and spread his message and overcome the yoke of the corrupt DNC, and the anti-Bernie media, and then the revolution will be upon us.
Alright then.
Well, so far in 2020 he has claimed a smaller share of the vote in every single state that has voted. That's right - Bernie has not claimed a larger share of the electorate in one place. Not one. And in the places where he won, he hemorrhaged voters: 79% to 34% in Utah, 59% to 36% in Colorado, 86% to 51% in Vermont. 46% to 34% in California. Can't blame all this on Liz.
Is America feeling the Bern? I'd argue the opposite is happening. Bottom line: voters don't like him, and his supporters hurt their own cause spewing vitriol at their biggest allies.
And I'd often read in the NYT (and elsewhere) that the people who knew Trump the best, New Yorkers, were the people who disliked him the most, and what does that tell you? On that note, look at Bernie country: he went from 60% to 26% in New Hampshire, 86% to 51% in Vermont, and 48% to 26% in Massachusetts. Hmm.
5
Tuesday's results are heartening. We need to be done with the Dunning-Kruger Administration.
And so now, America will vote for a President without the enthusiasm required to move the masses, without much hope. To change one needs an illusion of the future, a dream. Cable TV and the internet have us stuck in the muck of the present. Bernie sells an illusion that would move us in the right direction but too much information dissuades us. America's success is built around chasing illusions. I voted for Biden, scared of the future.
1
Mr. Douthat declares that " in a whirlwind few days, the Democrats took my advice, and it worked."
Really? Not here in the burbs of Washington, where the participation of primary voters doubled compared to 2016.
You obviously assume that all of us NoVa primary voters read a column you penned 11 days before the primary, thus voting in overwhelming numbers for Biden?
Now that's what I call chutzpah - writ large.
2
There is a simpler, more fundamental explanation for the difference between the way Republicans responded to the never Trump movement and the way Democrats are responding to more "moderate" candidates...
It's called pragmatism. Sorry, but on the whole, Democrats are more pragmatic, cerebral, and measured in their positions. The Republicans that all jumped on the Trump bandwagon did so out of emotional response, primarily anger and ultimately, fear. This is what people with authoritarian personalities do, and whether you accept this fact or not, doesn't make it any less true that the majority of Republicans left in the party have authoritarian leanings on the egalitarian/authoritarian scale. They will gravitate towards a Trump when offered, every time.
Democrats on the whole understand what is at stake. Trump and GOP have taken a sledgehammer to our institutions, our alliances, and even our democracy itself. Most overwhelmingly understand that the pragmatic decision is to vote for the candidate that has the best chance of beating Trump, as well as keeping the House and taking the Senate. We get that four more years of authoritarianism is not something our country will likely survive and come out of as an America we recognize.
Joe was not my first choice. Far from it. Having said that, he has emerged as the best chance of beating Trump AND the GOP as a whole. We pragmatic types get this.
4
But what is truly amazing is that Joe Biden hasn't changed at all and neither has his campaign.
He hasn't done better in debates. He still forgets and mixes up his facts.
He still makes things up about himself. And Im not referring to missing a detail during a busy campaign. He simply lies about things he didn't really do.
And Joe still has all baggage that he had before. He opposed bussing, but only if it was for integrating schools.
He authored the mass incarceration bill which has been a disaster.
He helped banks and credit card companies jack up their rates on consumers. He authored the bill denying students the ability to include student loans in a bankruptcy proceeding.
He avidly supported Bush's Iraq war and of course denies it now. He was Obama's point man to work with the GOP Senate. And we see how well that went.
And he treated Anita Hill in a classic patriarchal sexist way and never apologized to this day.
The only thing that changed between now and a month ago is the massive media onslaught against Bernie Sanders. The public has been bombarded with red baiting, slander, innuendo and fear mongering about Bernie instead of actual reporting and honest commentary.
And it worked. Many voters have become convinced that Sanders is a risk but sleepy Joe is a safer bet.
But Biden's baggage won't go away. While it won't hurt him against Trump it certainly won't inspire a lot of Democrats. And if they don't turn out in Obama numbers sleepy Joe will lose.
3
@Drspock
Whine, whine, whine. Seriously, that's all I hear every time Sanders' supporters talk.
Sanders can't muster enough support among his supporters to win primaries. It gives me zero confidence in his ability to do so during a general election. And he would cause a lot of people who can't stand the current president but who also don't agree with his policies to simply stay home, resulting in 4 more years of crazy. None of us can risk that
1
This has been the best analysis I’ve seen, for both the 2016 and 2020 primaries.
4 years ago I voted for Bernie over Hillary in the NJ primary. And was planning to vote for him again in my first SC primary. Over the last two weeks my wife and I started looking at Biden, Sen. Warren and Mike too. Even though there is early voting for seniors we didn't make up our minds till the day before the primary. My wife voted for Sen. Warren, Mike wasn't on the ballot, and I voted for Biden. She asked why after following and giving small donations, I abandoned Bernie. All I could say was beat Trump.
1
You forgot the most important reason PleaseNotSanders could prevail where NeverTrump failed. For the last thirty years Fox News and talk radio have transformed the conservative base into a toxic hive of bigotry and conspiracy mongering. There just weren't enough moderate voters in the conservative coalition, and no liberals to speak of at all, to help candidates like Kasich or Rubio overcome Trump's momentum. And thanks to gerrymandering and a Senate that privileges small states, Republicans don't actually have to appeal beyond their core base of wingnuts in order to win. Democrats, on the other hand, have to appeal to moderates and conservatives in order to form a governing coalition, and their base derives its political opinions from a much more diverse, and much more reality-based, set of media outlets.
6
Unaddressed in the analysis to date of Biden's surge is a question, at least to this moderate who is a Never Trumper, is Biden's competence to win the election and serve effectively as President. Observing him these past few months causes great concern. He is not only gaffe prone, but he lacks mental acuity and comes across as every bit of his 77 years. It's stark. Laura Ingraham posited on her Fox News show last night that Biden is being propped up by the Democratic establishment in order to defeat Sanders and if he's elected, he will be a figurehead President, with limited power, influence or impact. An overstatement? Perhaps. But any never Trumper who considers himself or herself a moderate has to be concerned about Biden's fitness to withstand a rigorous campaign and thereafter, the significant demands of the Presidency.
1
@TommyStaff
Given the current president's obvious delusions and dementia, I'm not sure why any true NeverHim-er would be seriously concerned about Biden's fitness for the office.
@TommyStaff Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if Biden wins the nomination, he will be running against Donald Trump, right? You're suggesting we should worry about Biden's gaffe-proclivity and mental acuity in comparison to Donald Trump's?
And now they need to focus on unifying points that will ensure that the ultimate candidate has a program to defeat trump, deal with the corruption and bad choices his administration made for Americans, retain control of the House and take back the Senate. We will all probably suffer from higher taxes, an incomplete immigration policy, and other minor issues.
That still beats re-electing the current Oval Office occupant by miles.
2
I think I laughed out loud yesterday when, immediately after painting Joe Biden as the chosen one of the billionaire class and the Democratic Establishment, Bernie Sanders started running an ad that tied him to . . . the Democratic Establishment. The ad shamelessly uses Barack Obama's interactions with Bernie to imply that he was endorsing Bernie. Maybe all's fair, but seriously, this effort on the part of the Sanders campaign reeks of desperation, and looks like it was hastily floated out on the airwaves in response to his thorough drubbing in the African American community. So much for ideological purity. Bernie is no different than any other politician; he just needs everyone to think he is.
The Sanders campaign keeps missing the point. They are focused on massive social and governmental change. But in their insistence that we need the change, they skip over the part about having to defeat Trump first. And they refuse to look in the mirror to see what so many have tried to say; that Bernie will not budge on anything in order to bring everyone together. His anger, while justified, is as tiring as Trump's. His colleagues don't want to run on the same ticket with him. He has not expanded his base. He and the entire party will be branded as Socialists. He apparently can't or won't build bridges. He wants his policy proposals to beat Trump. I don't think he realizes that he, as a candidate, is his own worst enemy.
10
Douthat and his fellow Never-Trumpers are never able to admit the obvious: Trump more faithfully represents the Republican base voter than the Republican establishment. What Douthat calls the toxic relationship between the Republican voter and the Republican establishment is Not because the Bush II administration ended in failure; it is because the Republican establishment has been playing the Republican base for years. The base is virulently anti-immigrant, anti-free trade, anti people of color, anti-abortion and anti-gay rights (though the later is ebbing). The Republican establishment is only anti-tax and anti-abortion (in most cases) - it is pro-immigration, pro-free trade, and probably neutral on people of color. When Republican voters say they like Trump because he speaks his mind, they mean that he speaks their mind and his beliefs parallel their own. By substituting actual whistles for dog-whistles, Trump gave the Republican base someone to vote for other than the cynical hypocrites they had been voting for.
6
With regards to Sen. Bernie Sanders, an interview by Rachel Maddow on 3/4/2020 is very revealing. She asked Sen. Sanders why he did not ask Rep. Jim Clyburn for his endorsement. Sen. Sanders' answer was very revealing. Sen. Sanders stated that he and Rep. Clyburn have very different politics and that, "There is no way on God's earth that Clyburn was going to endorse me ". Just take a moment and think about that answer. What does it mean? Bernie claimed to like Rep. Clyburn but his very bitter answer shows otherwise. Sen. Sanders explained it by saying that he and Rep. Clyburn have very different politics. What? If his politics are not similar to those of Rep. Clyburn, a beloved leader and an icon within the Black community and among Democrats in general, I have a problem with that.
8
I think Douthat is overlooking a few key areas in his analysis. One is that many of the votes cast on Tuesday for "good enough" Biden are not an endorsement of him. The S.C. caucus vote and its timing were unfortunate; it is in fact meaningless, given that Trump will win there in the general election. Though the South reliably votes establishment, the effect on Massachusetts on Tuesday struck me as far more glaring.
And I think everyone has overlooked the number of disaffected Republicans who will never vote for Trump. I know some of these people--they are close friends. And most of them voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primary; they were scared to death of Trump but certainly were not going to vote for Mrs. Establishment Clinton. When I asked them why they voted for Biden on Tuesday, one wrote: "I didn’t vote for [Sanders] because the [Dem] party won’t let him win, and we need somebody somewhat rational. I didn’t even plan to vote, but I cast my vote for a little sanity. My colleague, a Republican, voted 'no preference'."
That's not an endorsement of Biden. That's an indictment of the establishment Democratic Party.
I'm a lifelong Democrat, a reliable vote since 1971. I voted for Sanders, with Warren as a strong second choice.
If the establishment party continues to ignore the discontent of Democrats like me, I will conclude that it is brain-dead and tone-deaf, and l'll leave it forever. If my party doesn't become more progressive, a Progressive Party is coming.
5
@NormaMcL
Please be careful what you wish for. An actual progressive party would almost necessarily draw all its support from dissatisfied Democrats. In any political race where the "Progressive Party" candidate qualified to appear on the general election ballot, this third party candidate would--more than anything else--make election of the Republican candidate more likely.
Third party progressive candidate Ralph Nader in 2000 accidentally--but certainly--elected President Bush II. That got us the invasion of Iraq. Hardly a progressive achievement worth bragging about.
@NormaMcL Nothing stopping you from starting one.
Your analysis is spot on. Bloomberg provided cover for Biden from not only Warren but all the other candidates. He will now provide cover again in the general by continuing to go after and bait Trump. Of course Bloomberg’s field staff are also a tremendous asset. Bernie did not progress from 2016. He can blame Warren or the establishment. In the end let’s see how he does in Florida and Michigan. I suspect he will get beaten soundly.
This liberal isn't ready to play nice and get in line just yet.
What is the point of having political convictions if you are going to abandon them for a presumably more electable character EVERY TIME. We found out in 2016--you get neither a full glass nor a glass half full.
I'm liberal. I voting for a liberal. Period. I hope Liz Warren is still in the race April 28. If not, it's Bernie.
Because I'm liberal and tired of being told I have to settle for less.
7
@Laurence Bachmann It's not a matter of settling. You just have to convince more people than you have. Sanders' base in the Democratic Party is Sanders' base in the national electorate. And it's too small to win. Today. Work for tomorrow. It does come.
2
@newsmaned
I agree that Sanders and his supporters have done a terrible job of expanding the base. But Warren tried to and was labeled a sellout by the left and a flip flopper by the moderates.
In these polarized times there is no bridging gaps so you might as well vote your convictions. Warren first; Sanders second and Biden as a last resort.
1
One more reason for consolidating: Trump has been shown to be appallingly bad. In 2016, it was a prediction. In 2020 it is a well documented fact. That focuses the mind.
6
The decisive difference between the anti-Trump movement in 2016 and the anti-Sanders movement in 2020 was way in which various media outlets treated these two campaigns during the primary season. Most of the so-called "left leaning" media outlets, such as the New York Times, Washington Post, MSNBC, etc. have always been very anti-Sanders and published an avalanche of negative coverage of Sanders right before Super Tuesday. Much of the right wing media, such as Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, etc. gave Trump much more positive coverage throughout the primary. If Fox News had decided to make Trump's unfitness and un-electability its headline story at decisive moments in the Republican Primary -- as the Times and Post did with Sanders -- it probably would have sunk his campaign.
3
What helped Biden was Bernie's nonexistent voter surge. Bernie's claim of youth and new voters is as unbelievable as his explanations on how to pay for free everything.
7
At the end of the day, Biden's lead over Bernie's in delegates will not be that significant. Bernie is now the front runner again, but only because most of the states he won were in the South and the progressives were still split between Bernie and Warren.
If Elizabeth Warren stays in the race she will prevent Bernie from winning the nomination. If she drops out, Bernie will still have a good chance of winning in the delegate rich states in the industrial Northeast.
The outcome of the race between Bernie and Biden is in the hands of Elizabeth Warren. In the near future, she will reveal if she is a true progressive or something else entirely.
2
@Robert Scull
No. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have very similar platforms. But for many wrong reasons, many people are scared of Sanders. Warren has a broader appeal.
Both are progressives, and I am thankful that the current lineup includes two progressives. And both are team players. If Warren suspends her campaign (as opposed to "drops out," as you put it), she will have the power to transfer her delegates to Sanders. Or if Biden makes substantial concessions to progressives before the general election, she may decide to transfer her delegates to Biden. Neither she nor Sanders is an egoist. They both strongly believe that the Democratic Party in its current incarnation will destroy itself by ignoring too many people in its attempts to get rich and retain power. And they are entirely right on that score. But they are working for all progressives in that regard, not just for themselves.
3
I really hope Warren backs Sanders, and the other majority of us finally has a voice.
6
@Manny --
sorry, but supporters of Warren and Sanders are not a majority -- not in the Democratic party, and certainly not in the country.
One point that needs correcting. Most democrats (I would argue ) do view the Obama presidency as disappointing — and more than mildly, but they still like and admire Obama himself. That’s an important distinction that Ross misses.
8
@Buck Thorn --
That's because most Democrats are smart enough to understand that with a Republican-controlled Congress, you can't blame Obama for the failure of his agenda.
The lesson we should learn is that holding the White House is an important symbolic victory. But it's a hollow one without the ability to get legislation through Congress.
1
I, too, as everyone I knew, said all the same things that RD did - they needed to consolidate, etc. But I would not say they "took MY advice." I hope ARD doesn't feel this was his idea and they listened to him.
1
In many respects, Douthat's column supports the novel theory posted by Thomas Friedman, that a winning candidate would present the country a "team of rivals," and list them by name.
In 3 short days, campaign opponents were dropping like flies, not to end up in some vague political black hole but on the stage of a potential nominee with all the promises that entails.
Does anyone doubt that Klobashar, Buttigieg, even Bloomberg, would form part of a Biden adminstration?
That's how politics morphs from potential to promise, and erases bitterness--something the Sanders campaign needs to address and fix soon, before it becomes as corrosive and toxic as the authoritarianism dominating this administration.
11
"it suggests that the Democratic Party still has some institutional potency, some ballast as a political organization, some capacity to make decisions as a party."
it sure does, ross, and you've climbed a bit in my esteem to say so, because few other commentators have done it.
the concession and endorsements from hopeful future cabinet secretaries and possibly even a VP happened so swiftly and smoothly that concerted pressure must have been applied to produce such unanimity so quickly. and, how quickly the commentators picked up the "two man race" meme!
now, ross, if you can turn your christian ethics to climate change, and get old testament about the depravity of what we are doing to our future, i may even start buying your books.
Bernie Sanders' plans would be very disruptive to the economy , whereas Biden is much more moderate. In my opinion Biden would do much to toning down the polarization that has taken hold on both sides of the Ideologies. I feel that Sanders would do much to disrupt, alienate, and would generate an exodus of businesses out of the US, and, we would be facing an economic recovery that could span a generation or two.
6
The 'earned media' granted Biden and his sudden backers, pre Super Tuesday, has been estimated at nearly $100 million. That the mainstream media rushed to the rescue of the capitalist candidate is hardly surprising since the media are themselves giant corporations and their employees their faithful servants. Unfortunately for them, come debate time, they will be unable to prevent the focused, energized Sanders contrasting so favorably with their failing favorite, Wandering Joe . . . .
7
Biden was the favorite before he even started his campaign because most people thought he had the best chance of beating Trump (and his association with Obama didn't hurt - see the picture). After South Carolina everyone remembered and jumped back on the band wagon.
3
While I generally disagree with your politics Ross, I think we both believe America is a land of laws, centered on the Constitution, with freedom, democracy, free trade, legal immigration and the checks and balances derived from 3 co-equal balances.
This is not an ordinary election. Re-electing Trump is the end of the Republic.
Emperor Caligula Trump is a Russian puppet destroying America's democratic alliances, withdrawing the nation from the rest of the world at Putin's behest, now stuck over his head with a global pandemic.
Maybe you shouldn't have decimated the CDC and NIH budgets while cash stripping the US Treasury?
The Russians have hacked America's political system, and currently they are backing Sanders for Democratic nominee and Trump for President.
After much hand-wringing, Democrats have been smart enough not to accept the candidate Russia and Trump-Pence are pushing to help them end the American Republic.
I believe the Democratic Unity ticket is the way to stop the GRU and Putin from fracturing the majority opposition.
Sanders is receiving tens of millions in anonymous contributions under the $50 limit, but he isn't receiving anywhere near the votes he did in 2016.
He speaks in a loop on 3 issues - we have heard it before and didn't buy it then.
Defeating Donald Trump, rebuilding American democratic alliances around the world, and retaining the Republic is what is essential.
17
The dow rallied 1100 points today on the Biden win because the chances of a socialist in office are now a whole lot slimmer. Let’s be thankful that this radical leftist movement lost some steam and normalcy has a chance of returning to politics.
And for the echo chamber of responders who will make quips that I even mentioned the stock market, let’s be thankful that our healthcare system has an embedded profit motive and some of the best and brightest people are right now motivating to find a Coronavirus vaccine. That doesn’t happen in socialist countries.
11
@Jason
Yes, this was a blow to socialism, one sent by democratic voters. The media missed this sentiment because it was too busily indulging its interest in identity, which allowed democratic candidates without a chance of winning to be considered serious contenders.
5
@Jason The US pays twice as much for health care as other developed nations and gets worse outcomes. Support for the US market- based health insurance is just ideological blindness.
5
@Jason
The top 10% of America own 85% of all stocks.
You may want to research better.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047956/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-researchers-have
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/health/cancer-vaccine-cuba-medical-tourism.html
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4204580/
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2019/09/nhs-to-fund-revolutionary-treatment-for-blindness-in-children/
1
The other big factor was the powerful endorsement by Rep. James Clyburn. The powerful effect he had on voters in South Carolina and beyond cannot be overstated. I am from Connecticut and not the demographic that he was speaking to but I was captivated. The only way I could support Joe was to give money to his campaign after listening to his endorsement.
Clyburn started the wave and it grew with endorsements from Mayor Pete, Sen. Klobuchar, and Beto. I just hope Joe can keep up the momentum.
8
I sincerely don’t understand why Americans don’t want better for themselves, their children, their neighbors and their country.
Again and again, for one reason or another, we are told we have to settle for less than what is needed to ensure dignity for every person and a future for our planet, and we willingly give up.
And the ones who are never asked to sacrifice are the millionaires and billionaires, who are, in fact, the leaders of the anti-Bernie and “don’t pay any attention to Warren” campaigns.
The super wealthy in this country are the ones who brought about this result, and the proof will be that they will keep getting richer and the poor will keep getting poorer, with the middle class going no where.
If Biden ends up as the candidate, and if he somehow manages to get elected, just watch and see if anything really changes.
23
@TJ Because I feel a vote for Bernie is a vote to lose. And I do want better than Trump with all my soul.
5
And if Trump is re-elected just watch as the America we once knew becomes an oligarchy and ruins the environment and the future of this planet.
@TJ, you’ve got it all wrong, I’m afraid. My family is definitely not wealthy by any means and as middle class as they come. Bernie Sanders views are anathema to me. He’s not a Democrat, he’s a Socialist. He isn’t loyal to the Democratic Party. He’s loyal to “his” movement, the one he is so proud of having created. Bernie will not comrpomise with anyone, and he wants the same kind of destructive “burn the house down” change that people like Steve Bannon want, only in reverse. Bernie is as dangerous as Bannon and shouldn’t be let anywhere near the White House.
There’s a reason why only young people like Bernie, and it’s more than just free college and no student loans. Young people under 30 don’t have the knowledge, maturity or background to understand the need for economic stability, diplomacy and practical common sense in government. Bernie fills their heads with the kind of rhetoric that has been inspiring “revolutions” for centuries, unfortunately the very revolutions that ultimately end in tryanny and dictatorships, not democracy. Obviously, that’s just what Bernie loves: Castro, the Soviet Union, etc. Bernie’s even proud of it.
Bernie and his followers need to all join the Democratic Socialists of America and turn the DSA into our 3rd political party. Quit trying to pollute the Democratic Party. Then the Democrats can become the true “party of the people”. Centrists, Independents, Center Left, and Pete’s “future ex-Republicans”. They are “US”.
2
I'm not a believer in the deep state but I do believe that to win the presidency, the candidate must be acceptable to Wall Street. Bernie isn't that guy, with with or without a revolution. Donald tried to play this card, saying that he alone could save people's 401 plans from Bernie, but it looks like Joe can do it, too.
8
Excellent column, and a satisfying chronicle of a moment of great relief in our democracy. Biden was not among my top five choices for the nomination, but after staring Sanders’s nomination straight on and fearing his effect down the ballot, I am finding myself surprisingly comforted by our Super Tuesday results.
The only thing I’d like to add, as a proud Democrat, is that I think the acrimony among the 2016 Republican candidates would not really ever happen in a crowded field of Democrats, to that degree. And that is an illustration of the difference in the tone and tactics of the two parties, and their relative fundamental trust in government.
12
Maybe someone else might have suggested this, but the Democratic Party allocates the delegates proportionally and they have the much criticized Super delegates which have more control over the process and the final outcome. By the time Cruz won Wisconsin in 2016, Trump had already amassed quite a few delegates without even winning a single state with more than 50%. The incentives for candidates like Klobuchar or Buttigieg to stay in the race are very low if the process is not going to yield them any delegates.
1
I will vote for whomever becomes the Democratic nominee for President. But I am so afraid that Joe, whose new mantra is restoring dignity and honesty to the White House, will be the Jimmy Carter after Richard Nixon and indeed restore honesty and dignity where it is sorely needed, but accomplish little else. Then here comes Donald Trump in 2024 for his second term, enabled to further destroy America.
There is going to be another catastrophic recession within a few short years. There is a huge stock market bubble, real estate bubble, record personal debt, unsustainable corporate debt and massive deficit spending. Like prior to the financial collapse in 2008, there is little reporting on what lies ahead for America in the very near future in terms of a precipitous downturn in the economy.
Despite the utter disdain I have for Donald Trump and the Republicans in power now and the fear I have for what could happen under his leadership for another four years, I am almost to the point where I think it might be better if he is reelected to complete the carnage he has begun and have him and the Republicans fully reap what they have sown. Then in 2024 a genuine political revolution can occur, ridding ourselves of the entirety of the Republican grip on power for at least a generation.
The alternative I fear is Biden is elected, this horrible recession hits, the blame is on him and the Democrats and we have to live through another season of Trump's dystopian reality show.
7
@Rich D
Great post - except that biden doesn't have much honesty or integrity either. His son is an influence peddler and good ol joe is defending (and probably participating in said peddling) hunter. Not exactly the stuff of decency or integrity.
5
Trump’s children do the same thing. I’m sure if researched most politician’s kids do very well in life, mostly by selling their connections to their parents.
5
All these arguments sound reasonable. I would add to them the fact that the spreading covid-19 virus, and the depressing incompetence the administration is showing dealing with it, reminds us why it is important to have experienced people running the ship. Casting a protest vote is not free.
6
It is heartening to see the results of Super Tuesday after hearing so many times that Biden was dead in the water.
Even when there was barely a pulse in his campaign there was always the potential to re-ignite the old Obama/Biden coalition that elected a Black president (think of that in the context of the Trump era) twice!
But as Miracle Max said in Princess Bride, "Mostly dead is not completely dead."
Representative Jim Clyburn gave Biden a miracle pill in the form of his endorsement, and Mayor Pete, Amy Klobuchar, and Beto followed with their endorsements, which sealed the case at the very, very last minute.
Biden now needs to solidify his support by enlisting surrogate campaigners in a full-fledged crusade (and he should start calling it a crusade) to return the country to decency, dignity, and democracy.
Those could include all of the above endorsers, as well as some of the earlier candidates, who were ill-served by scheduling two almost completely white states first. Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, Andrew Yang, and Julian Castro should be invited to join the crusade to focus on constituencies with which they resounded.
And some of these might go on, if Biden is elected, to form a team with Biden to govern the nation in cabinet positions. Kamala Harris as AG, Pete Buttigieg at DOD, and Andrew Yang at Commerce would be wonderful choices.
A strategic choice for VP is Black Florida Congresswoman Val Demings who was a star prosecutor in the Impeachment Trial.
9
The Democratic Party may have stopped Sanders' ascent but it hasn't stopped him from campaigning. He has plenty of money from loyal small dollar supporters. Their clearing the decks for Biden now forces Sanders to focus exclusively on Biden instead of others on the stage.
Biden has not taken much heat from Sanders or any of the other candidates. Now he will and it's only fair. In 2016, Sanders handled Hillary with kid gloves when there was plenty of damaging material he could have used. The party surrogates have played dirty against Bernie. Will he return the favor? If he chooses to, he can do Biden a lot of damage before Trump gets his go.
8
is Bernie out for Bernie, or for the prople of America? his ego or the pragmatism that got him elected over and over in Vermont? (even willing to cast a 'bad' vote against gun control back then). Don't go down in history Bernie as the man got Trump re-elected. Please.
Great - so the candidate who can’t get enough if his voters out to win the nomination is now going to take aim at his rival, increasing the likelihood of that information being used against the ultimate nominee by our current disaster of a president.
And Bernie’s supporters wonder why actual Democrats don’t support him. We’ve already seen some talking about “burning it all down.” Threatening the country with arson isn’t a good way to win people to your side
I really like Bernie and I think it is unfair to paint him as an extremist. The problems he talks about and the solutions he proposes are real, make sense and who benefit a lot of people.
Even so, I think Biden is a better choice for the Ticket. My first vote went to George McGovern of whom I also admired and respected. Turned out, thats not good enough. I think he lost in maybe 49 states. You have to have the political backing to make it and Biden has it.
6
What Trump did to the career public servants who told the truth in the Ukraine affair the Democratic establishment did to Bernie Sanders and all the people he represents. They have even used Trump's talking points against him.
Joe Biden will need every one of the party powerful, local, state and national, and every one of their billionaires to defend him in the general election if he is to stand a chance against the master propagandist Trump. He will especially need black leaders like Senator Clyburn to turn out the vote in numbers even greater than Obama's.
They might also think of some way to show respect to Senator Sanders and his supporters whose votes they will also need, keeping in mind that Nancy Pelosi will need the progressive Democrats in the House to play on her team.
They may have "stopped Bernie" but their work has just begun.
5
What? the "establishment" came out on record numbers to vote for Biden in Virginia? Texas? Please stop recycling Trump propaganda intended to get Bernie nominated so Trump can skewer him in the general election as a"socialist" who "honrymooned" in Moscow
1
That so many Democrats look back favorably on the Obama administration shows how disinterested they are in policy and real world outcomes. Obama's signature achievement was a weak tea giveaway to insurance companies. Aside from that, he allowed Mitch McConnell to outsmart him every step of the way. He created a debacle in Libya, greatly stepped up deportations, allowed a bonanza of fossil fuel extraction on public lands, and meekly accepted that Merrick Garland would never get a vote.
But none of this matters to the centrists. Pretty speeches, a telegenic wife, cute kids, hip quips, and symbolism were more than good enough for them. Star power was good enough.
We've learned a lot lately about the centrist wing of the Democrat Party, which clearly remains larger than the progressive wing, at least among the electorate. One might argue that they represent a variation of classical conservatism that may be gone forever from the Republican Party. Certainly, the centrists prefer to look backward rather than forward, and are quite content to bury their heads in the sand when it comes to big problems like climate change and inequality. They mouth the words, but what they desire most is to sacrifice little or nothing for any of it.
Why the disinterest? It's because most have personal assets in mind that they wish to protect in the near term. They want the status quo, because the status quo has worked for them.
9
Obama had to deal with an intransigent Republican opposition. Watch how little Bernie will get done if he can't bring out enough voters to flip the Senate
12
And Obama was almost completely dominated by that intransigent Congress. He had no bully pulpit skills to speak of. Just a long series of mostly thwarted technocratic patch jobs. He bears as much blame as Mitch McConnell for Garland’s demise, due to sheer lack of effort. Obama’s was a wimp presidency with a certain celebrity flair.
People get the government they deserve. An uncharacteristic lack of ambition amongst too many Americans, when it comes to necessary political change, has doomed the country to tinkering on the sidelines rather than leading a charge for the rest of the world to follow. How sad.
In my lifetime, I have never seen the Democratic Party nominate what they thought was the “safe” candidate. It has had good candidates, and bad candidates, but whatever the case the candidate had a vision. Of some sort. Because that’s kind of a prerequisite to have a chance of winning.
Joe Biden has no vision. He can’t articulate why he wants to be President — other than he’s going to restore decency in the White House. That might be good enough for most Democrats. (It’s even good enough for me.) BUT THAT’S NOT WHAT WINS ELECTIONS.
The closest parallel I can think of is when the GOP nominated Bob Dole, because he was a decent man. And it was his turn. Or something. Dole lost big, by the way, to a President with a congenital problem with the truth.
11
Kerry was a "safe" choice. Gore was a "safe" choice. tbh, even HRC was a "safe" choice. They all represented some bland vision of acceptable politician that everyone should want to vote for. we all know the outcomes.
3
Even though I'm disappointed and worried that Biden is the moderate around whom Democrats have chosen to rally (he seems to me much riskier than Buttigieg or Klobuchar, or possibly even Bloomberg), I am proud of the Dems for acting as a unified body, for once. My mom used to say that Republicans win because at the end of the day they just want their team to win, whereas organizing Democrats is like herding cats. Not this time!
13
Ross, even you must admit Trump is a problem. Bernie is the opposite end of the spectrum. Biden at least represents a jumping off point to attempt discussion and finding a middle ground. Life is not binary black and white, it is many shades of gray. Revolution is painful and divisive, evolution takes time and yields a better long term outcome.
3
No revolution was ever completed in baby steps.
The irony of Elizabeth Warren's damaging attacks on Bloomberg really helped Joe Biden in his race with Sanders, and did very little to help her own cause, thus knocking herself out of the race by elevating Biden.
If Bloomberg had not been so damaged by Warren, then Biden would have had far less votes and those votes could have been more split across the four candidates and then maybe she would have been viable in a brokered convention, but that ship sailed on Tuesday.
So, in a strange twist of fate Warren didn't just sink Bloomberg she also sank Sanders and herself.
11
@SparkyTheWonderPup
She was already slipping under the waves. She did the nation a great service by demonstrating that $500 million in ads only puts lipstick on a pig. Biden should select her as his VP running mate. He needs to do something to unify the party, and get progressives on board.
@SparkyTheWonderPup Bloomberg never expected to win and didn't try very hard either. He was just there to stop Bernie and when, with the help of Sen. Clyburn, Pete and Amy, it worked so marvelously, he promptly went back to his glass tower.
Biden now needs to move to the left to pick up disaffected young people and Latinos -- two groups needed if he is to secure the Presidency. He needs to say that he will on day 1 explore a strong public option for health care. He could make himself even more popular if he championed Medicare for children and young adults under 26 and offer a buy in to Medicare for adults who are self employed or unemployed. On student debt he could propose to cancel debt for those who earned their degrees and then worked in the public and/or non profit sector for 10 years. He needs to show that he hears those who support Bernie and Liz Warren on these two issues. And then he has to say that he will raise taxes on the wealthy to begin to close the budget deficits.
If he doesn't begin to articulate a more progressive position on these issues his candidacy will go down to defeat because many will simply sit out the election.
6
@historyprof Those things would help but his commitment to fight for even those modest reforms is questionable.
1
@abigail49
Yep - he would need to show he was doing more than lip service - and I think its quite clear than anything progressive he would offer would be lip service. His website is full of hot air.
1
why say that? evidence?
I think there is one other thing helping Biden - the substantial number of former Republicans, like myself, who have joined the Democratic Party in the last decade since the most toxic elements of the Tea Party and the Religious Right took over.
To the Democratic Party we bring not only our moderation - respect for both people of faith and pluralism on social issues, support for sensibly regulated capitalism - but also our experience with the consequences of an extreme movement taking over your party. We are motivated to not let another great party become ruined by purity tests and extremism, and our moderation on both social and economic issues makes us natural allies of African Americans, who know the value of hard work, community, and their faith.
The surge in turnout among suburbanites voting for Biden likely included many former Republicans, voters the Democrats will need to win in November.
My hope is that President Biden will hit the reset button and work to bring our polarized society back together. I hope that, with Trump removed from our public life, some of the anger on both the right and the left will cool. I hope we can get back to where we can have healthy disagreement, where we can debate ideas, where one can be a liberal or conservative without stigma.
And I hope that the Republicans will use their time out of power to think about what kind of party they want to be, so that in 2024 Americans can have a choice between two functional parties again.
464
@A F Thank you A F for your perspectives and contributions. I was not a Republican although my father always was and I could imagine him shifting as well if he were still here.
I see this pointing partly to a different way of framing the dynamics: relationships instead of policy. We can all have questions about our own and country's future with different answers to the problems and then agree or disagree and work on solutions. What many of us are disgusted with is the lack of basic care and civility toward others and take-no-prisoners mentality to win. I too hope the Republicans get a "time-out" of power and use it for self-reflection and constructive contributions. And I hope the Democrats heed your advice and remain inclusive instead of divisive.
52
@A F Thoughtful commentary. I'll simply add: I hope the "time out" period extends well beyond 2024.
50
@A F Welcome to the party (literally). I believe that Biden portends a permanent realignment of the suburbs, a coalition that will prove as potent and lasting as Ronald Reagan. We had Reagan Democrats. Now we have Biden Republicans.
The press never respected Reagan either and considers Biden an intellectual lightweight. But they have something in common: a sunny optimism during a dark national mood, and a preference for progress over purity.
54
Excellent analysis. It should also be noted that through it all, Biden came across as a decent human being who showed empathy. He is the perfectly imperfect candidate that can beat Trump and everyone else seemed to recognize that.
7
The real question is how many American voters will prefer a decent guy, like Biden, who has made a career getting along with political opponents but who is by no means the smartest or most articulate candidate, to someone who is either strident and ideologically pure, like Sanders, or who has an uncanny ability to elicit fear and hatred, like Trump. Will Americans choose likability over ideological purity or pathology? Can someone so lacking in charisma make enough voters believe he is the White Knight who can slay the Trumpian Dragon?
67
@James, Toronto, CANADA - "...who is by no means the smartest or most articulate candidate, ..."
That's pretty much of a leap imo. Doesn't have to be the most articulate if you pay attention to the meanings supporting the words, and the articulation itself may be impeded by his speech impediment. Add in the actions of his entire career. Not perfect, no one is, and how can anyone be perfect when the electorate is no monolithic bloc of believing in what makes for perfect.
The "by no means the smartest" is a pretty subjective judgement by you and imo you should justify it using examples. On the major issues of the day i'd like to know where he fails. If he's slow to come up with all encompassing good for all bad for none cures for our ills i'd like to know who does have the god-like answers that will fulfill everyone's desires and violate no one's idea of "that would be a lousy way to go". Well articulated yet unworkable or at least highly questionable solutions offered are not indications of superior intellect, just superior gaming of the electorate. Slow, measured thought is highly preferable for me over well articulated vacuous answers.
Being ideologically pure is a trait not necessarily particularly desirable in a person who is supposed to be the president of all the people. A person elected to do the most good for as many as possible, the least harm to as few as possible. Ciao
19
I can relate to Joe. He isn’t a fancy talker and neither am I but I hear sincerity when he speaks and I like that. I hear kindness and consideration for others when he speaks. So he stutters a bit. That doesn’t make him any less of a man. We don’t need a genius but we need someone who cares about people and is willing to listen to good advice. I think the average American can understand Joe and I think he will make a good president.
31
@James, Toronto, CANADA
Bernie friends, Trump is trying to sow division, screaming “rigged” at every turn. Don’t buy it. Please don't buy Trump's propaganda. We’re having a contest of real voters. Nothing wrong with that. No superdelegate nonsense. Like Bernie says, let's give the nom to whoever gets the most votes. Above all, from Bernie to Biden voters: what unites us is much more than what divides. I don’t just mean despising Trump. Bernie and Biden both want to (1) get more healthcare to more people. We might disagree on how but we can’t deny Biden means it; he helped Obama get healthcare to >15 million folks who didn’t have it, most folks with lower income or pre-existing conditions; (2) reduce gun deaths, via background checks, waiting periods, renewing assault weapons ban, maybe even repealing gun maker immunity from liability, etc. (3) reverse trump tax cuts for rich, raise capital gains taxes so middle class incomes are not taxed higher than rich folks investments, raise effective corporate taxes via closing loopholes (no more Amazon 0%!), and more. (4) fight climate change. (5) restore honesty decency good governance & respect for science to the EPA CDC etc (Obama and Biden created an epidemics “czar” on NSC which Trump eliminated). (6) humane treatment of immigrants. (7) protect voting rights (~700 polling stations closed in TX since ~2013), and much more. I know there are important disagreements, but there are big agreements too. Let's defeat Trump together.
4
Ross, you left out an important difference: all the GOP candidates except Trump were offering a product which the voter didn't want - namely more GOP take-from-the-middle-class and give-to-the-rich trickle down. Trump was mouthing something different, even though it was 100% lies. The Democrats, on the other hand, are all still interested in selling something which actually benefits the vast majority of Americans. They are dealing from a position of verifiable, fact based truth, instead of a position of deception. So, even though there are differences within the Democrats, they are in a better position to coalesce around a candidate which does not betray or destroy the party, unlike the GOP.
5
" The Bush presidency ended in failure, unpopularity and crisis"
The big difference between the Republican and Democratic parties is that the Democrats actually work to pass legislation to be a constructive force in people's lives, while the Republicans generally con workers into voting for them while passing legislation to help only their wealthy donors (eg the deficit-exploding yacht-buying enabling tax bill
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/396573-gop-lawmaker-bought-multi-million-dollar-yacht-on-the-same-day-he-voted-for. )
Most Democratic primary voters understand that everything from a minimum wage to Medicare to Social Security has come to them thanks to the Democratic Party, and when all has fallen short, it has been due to Republican obstruction.
11
The big difference between the Democrats and Republicans with regard to stopping a populist candidate is that whereas most Republican voters were well to the right of the Republican establishment most Democratic voters have similar political views as the Democratic establishment. This probably is attributable to media. A large right wing media has been driving Republicasn to the right for decades but there is no comparable left wing media. Most Democrats follow mainstream media. For Sanders to do what Trump did he would need a left wing equivalent of conservative talk radio and Fox News and have large numbers of Democrats ignore mainstream media. Without that his efforts to take over the Democratic Party seem bound to fail for a second time.
8
Biden can't win the swing voters that voted for Trump, those people wanted change and believed in his promises. Now it is evident that Trump promised things that he never accomplished (more manufacturing jobs, Mexico to pay for the wall), when presidents promise stuff they don't do (remember Bush "no new taxes"?), they are not reelected. Time for Bernie to accomplish real change, Biden doesn't have a plan at all.
6
He doesn’t HAVE to “swing the voters that voted for [the current president].”
He has to hold in to Clinton’s voters and get 100,000 people in 4 states who didn’t vote in the last election to show up for him. Give black voters a reason to come to the polls. Get more college-educated white women out to vote.
It’s unfair to expect black voters to get us out of this mess, but reality is that they have the numbers to do it. Find out what’s truly important to them (don’t make assumptions about it!!) and make their priorities everyone’s priorities. We will all end up better off for it.
Trump supporters will never split from their monster, why would you think they would become sentient beings?
I credit Mayor Pete and Sen K for knowing when to walk away. They both appreciated that their campaigns were finished without getting support from black voters. As for Biden, he may be past his prime and burdened with a lot political baggage, but this resurrection makes him a more compelling candidate than if he’d just been grinding out a plurality the whole time.
15
Most Democrats aren’t socialists; we just want a competent and nice government that doesn’t stress us out every time we read the news. So the most important thing is to defeat Trump and that means having a unified party. What sold me on Biden is how Biden got Buttigieg and Klobuchar, two people who seem to genuinely loathe each other, together for a common purpose. That’s what the Democrats need to beat Trump.
26
Biden. The Anointed One. I feel like he did the least work of ALL the candidates. Poor ground campaign. Unimpressive debates. Few appearances in the states. No original ideas. Comes with the whole Ukrainian fraud mess that half the country believes. Biden says he will work across the aisle. I doubt he can work across his own party to include disenfranchised progressive voters. Same mistake Hillary made. Insanity.
Vote for Biden, he is not Sanders.
Vote for Biden, his is not Trump.
What is Biden?
16
Bot bot bot bot
Hillary had a lot of baggage and at the same time was missing some crucial body parts. She had 2.5 strikes against her going into the general election, some self-inflicted and some caused by a selfish non-Democrat who refused (and still refuses) to accept that Democratic voters aren’t interested in being democratic socialists.
After the past 4 years, being the anti-current president is likely enough for most of us. It certainly was in 2018
I quite agree; crisp and cogent analysis.
2
To be clear, The Democratic Party is losing votes of politically engaged intellectuals and young people who are currently being educated as long as they support Biden. I have not voted yet, but I’m going to as long as Bernie is on the ticket. I will not vote for Biden, and neither will many of my friends who understand the social sciences as we do. This is why: Joe is Trump. It’s not Us vs Them. It’s capitalism versus the Left’s critique. Those boomer democrats who choose not to engage with this critique, need to understand they embody the ideology of Liberalism, the ideology of David Brooks, the ideology of Trump. If you choose to ignore the critique, you are missing the chance to build a coalition with the us, with the Left. To ignore the critique, is to choose Trump. The Left was never with Biden nor with his liberal economic policies. My advice to Boomers who ignore the critique: Own your liberal economic ideology! Trump is better at being the thing you want to be than Biden is! . Just be honest with yourselves and choose the man you want, not the stammering, senescence of the former Vice President. Those who choose Biden truly want Trump! Just choose Trump if you want to ignore the Left’s critique! I will being voting Trump if dems nominate Biden.
8
@Woody Equibreté so your preference is for a conservative Supreme Court nominee to replace RBG? That may be the only difference between Biden and Trump but it is a real one with material long term consequences.
7
And Bernie supporters wonder why the Democrats who vote in primaries - who apparently don’t include his legions of supporters who is is going to bring out in waves - don’t want anything to do with them.
The appeal of ANY candidate to the”youth” vote is pointless. The youth vote has historically not shown up to vote. And rather than creating lifelong left voters, as most of those youths get older, they become less enamored of the promises that attracted them. Why? Because they realize that they have become the people who will pay for them.
Sure, there will be other young people to join the ranks of what is the far left in this country, but they too will not show up and will age to the center.
We haven’t seen a generation yet where this didn’t happen.
@Varsityvic
I think the real question is if your preference is for a conservative on the court? Because if it isn't, vote Sanders or Warren. Your kind just needs to cooperate this time - but you won't. Just like in 2016, you will kick and scream and cheat to get your candidate and then blame others when trump wins.
Get big money out of politics, that's what Democrats say, but then they go and vote for Biden instead of Senator Sanders. Now Wall Street is poring money into the Biden campaign, giving us the same old corrupt candidates.
17
"But instead, in a whirlwind few days, the Democrats took my advice, and it worked."
Sounds very modest...
16
@George Touché!
Great column. And I would suggest to any Biden supporters that when they are confronted by some Bernie Bro yelling about the “corrupt DNC” fixing the primary, to respond that it is disgraceful to suggest that the thousands of black voters who gave Biden the South ( and may very well have saved us from Trump), were motivated by anything but patriotism, urgency, and common sense.
14
@Michael Judge
So the biggest demographic block of voters who didn't show up in 2016 were African Americans. 3 million who showed up for Obama didn't show up for Clinton. And yet you want to blame Sanders supporters. Its just amazing.
Indeed, that was very good advice Mr. Douthat gave the Moderates; to consolidate under a Republican shill. They didn't think twice about it either.
8
Taking credit where credit is not due.
Biden's comeback is actually proof of the contempt that the voting public has for the unfit governance that we have gotten over the past 3 years. It has nothing to do with past respect for President Obama, experience of Joe Biden, money spent, speeches given, etc.
James Clyburn's full-throated genuine endorsement of the humane, honest Joe Biden stands in stark contrast to the filthy lying of the republicans in general and trump in particular.
16
@kirk Honest? Biden has a whole career of dishonesty, from plagiarizing speeches decades ago through to his recent fabrication of a story about getting arrested when trying to meet Nelson Mandela.
I am watching a literal episode of House of Cards unfold in front of me. You think that show was fiction? Think again.
6
Another factor that is ignored here is press coverage. The Never Trumpers could not influence the FOX coverage that trump was getting. FOX fed in directly to his base. With Biden he has the support of MSM especially the NYT even though Bidens platform is especially thin. The fear mongering around Sanders and Warren was and remains relentless.
In addition the DNC has been far more influential then the RNC was with their attempts to push Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Literally a few days before South Carolina Buttigieg and Klobuchar drop out of the race and strongly endorse Biden. Only a fool would think that this was either a coincidence or motivated by a personal unselfish desire for party unity. We will see who was promised the VP slot and who a cabinet post.
If Biden gets the nod and is elected I don't see this having any influence on the senate races. If Republicans retain the control of the senate then Joe will make good on his promise to his wealthy donors, "Nothing will fundamentally change". If so the 2024 race will get very ugly. There is a lot of anger on the left after decades of moderates.
5
Why are African-Americans so tethered to Biden? Is it the Obama connection? Is it the self interests of their leaders playing out?Obama delivered very little to this community and Biden promises even less. Are African-American leaders disingenuous to their followers for not embracing Sanders, who offers a more progressive agenda? What we know is that it is not objective reasoning about Sanders ability to beat Trump in the general election. The NYT will serve us well by dissecting this important part of the American electorate.
10
So, in a nutshell, black voters are too stupid to understand what should really be important to them and they just need to let Bernie and his supporters tell them what matters and how to vote.
With that attitude, you really wonder why Sanders and his supporters aren’t making more headway reaching out to black voters?
1
@Bigfathen Wow. Black voters have voted for the best candidate every single time for decades. How dare you question their judgment.
Biden offers the Jacksonian Spoils System redux. Big uptick in gummint hiring ahead. Plutocrats paying for that? I don't think so.
Witness the sudden rise of the stock market. Pharma & insurance interests worried about any resistance to the status quo? Plutocrats worried about anything other than a token minuscule tax increase? Oh yeah.
4
If Biden is the candidate I hope they have a stellar VP announced, because I fear he is in the same place as Reagan was in the last two years of his second term. He will undoubtedly not be able to debate Trump, and I am hoping that his staff writes the responses when the twitter war with Trump starts up.
6
There are different leadership styles. Trump is a top down guy who requires loyalty at all costs, the kind of leader you can not trust to do right by you. Then there is Biden who will probably lead by committee and will choose the best an brightest to surround him knowing freely that he doesn't know everything. Eisenhower and perhaps Lincoln were like this, consensus builders, people who crave and know they need advice. The people who surrounded him as candidates on stage will be his cabinet and guides, people who Biden will challenge and help him. Do we want another 'stable genius' in the White House? but knowing who will be with Biden lets me feel that we will have the best leadership possible including Bernie Sanders who Biden will also give his say.
3
And this all makes me SO HAPPY. As a lifelong moderate Dem, I'm pleased to see that we're (hopefully) nominating a candidate who will defeat Trump.
I was in one of the long voting lines in LA yesterday (something we never have), and the takeaway for me is that everyone, in all the primaries yesterday, wanted to make sure their "No More Trump" vote was registered.
10
It shouldn't be overlooked -- as a factor -- that Biden did really well in the last debate. That put steel in many spines. Also, the other Democrats can rally around him without cringing or feeling humiliated, because Biden didn't treat them like dirt, didn't demean them.
Biden't essential decency is always played like a minor thing, yet it is everything these days.
324
@Duncan Great point that Biden himself made it easy for people to rally around him--but did none of the Republican "moderates" do that for each other? (Can't remember.) Obviously Trump didn't make it easy for them, but he ended up not having to.
4
Interesting question. I think the Republican moderates might have rallied around Jeb Bush in '16, but Bush acted like he didn't care one way or the other. Rubio was an upstart, and was taken down by Christie almost as effectively as Bloomberg was taken down by Warren in this race. Kasich just didn't seem to connect.
Bush was the one among them with the "nice guy" image matched to appropriate gravitas and presumed viability as a front-runner, but he just didn't seem to want it. It's hard to rally around a guy that isn't fighting for the job. When Joe Biden came out swinging in the last debate it really showed people that he wanted it.
13
@Duncan Biden seems decent, yes. Is he the best we can do in the Democratic party? He seems to be struggling to articulate a vision of his own. Performance in the last debate was firey, but where is the substance, clarity, specific plan. Arguing to be heard, raising one's voice, promising to carry on Obamas legacy, does this translate to most effective leader/candidate for the presidency?
4
Most people, including me just want to go back to when life wasn’t about “ what did our president tweet today? Who did he insult today? Lie about today? Hate today? Embarrass us about today? Joe brings a needed relief of normalcy.
Thank you, Pete, Amy and the voters who showed common sense and reminded us there’s still light in the darkness.
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@Daniel B
If only it was that easy.
Trump is only a symptom, not the cause, of the deep problems in our society.
Going back to the old days will not solve them. Biden will not solve them. However, at least he will restore the government to working condition and set the table for the next administration, which will either build on them and improve the lot of ordinary Americans or tear them down again.
Which way this goes is up to the voters. I know which way I’m going, and I believe a lot of people will go with me.
5
You forgot to mention the over-50 black vote from South Carolina. People who have been abused and treated badly for a long time. Standing up in a mature way and saying: we trust this guy, we dont need the shiny new thing, the most important thing is to defeat the incumbent.
These folks literally saved the democratic party from itself. And kudos to Pete and Amy and Beto, all people who care for our nation.
20
@pm
Too bad they didn't vote in 2016. But sure, they are saving the party now.
Clearly, Elizabeth Warren, who policy positions are way closer to Sanders' than to Biden's, now faces a dilemma. Should she take the advice she gave her followers in Detroit yesterday to 'follow/vote your heart' and throw her support to Sanders or will she be under unbearable pressure from the Democratic Congressional and extra-Congressional establishment to join them behind Biden, also having to take into account that she will up for re-election at some point and the consequences of her decision now. In any case, we wish her good luck as we agree with her that, all things considered, she was the most outstanding candidate.
8
Excellent points but one other thing the 2020 Democrats had going for them is the obvious history of Trump in 2016. Ross recounted the glorious history of that trainwreck in his earlier column; fortunately the DNC and the party were able to absorb some useful lessons.
2
Great analysis, but...
The difference between Trump and Biden is that Trump tapped in to the latent discontent the was - and still is - brewing throughout this country. Discontent at how our leaders have put their interest above the needs of the American people. Biden, as an establishment politician who's done nothing for the past 40+ years, will not connect with the electorate come November in the same way Sanders might.
This election is still Trump's to lose - and Joe Biden as the nominee is the opponent that will help Trump win.
10
Science is about mathematical models. This article is an attempt to be as rigorous. You simply can't be so rigorous when it comes to human behavior. Possibly he's hit on reasons for stuff, but it's just so vague and not subject to experimentation. Thus, it is analysis after-the-fact, and has absolutely no predictive value for the future.
1
A great article, but Ross misses one thing: The Sanders movement poses a clear and present danger to the patronage networks at the center of the DNC. The same could not be said of Trump during his Republican primary campaign. The DNC nomenklatura has more to fear than the GOP did in 2016.
13
Is Biden the candidate Democrats want? Not really, but he's the best of a weak lot. Will he be good enough to win? Probably, because everybody is tired of Trump, America wants to get off politics for a while, we want some political normalcy. Happily, Sanders can't run again, he's too old, but Warren can, so they'll join forces in one last stand at the convention and when that fails Warren will claim leadership of American leftism--but she can never be elected, she's too hard-edged and determinedly know-it-all; nobody likes her. Sanders and Warren will go down in history as the American Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg. The interesting question, about which books will be written, is how did American politics ever produce that particular dynamic duo in the first place.
5
@Ronald B. Duke: "everybody is tired of Trump"?
According to a poll that the NYT ran a story about, like 90% of Republicans support Trump now because of his rightwing achievements. They won't risk Biden taking over and appointing liberal judges, but fight him tooth and nail. To beat the Trumpsters, Dems will need a high turnout, higher than in the primary. Can unexciting old Joe create that? I'm sceptical.
7
Rosa Luxembourg and Karl Liebknecht tried to stage a communist revolution in Germany and got killed as a result. A confusingly inappropriate historical analogy to Sanders and Warren who have more in common with the Social Democrats who suppressed the communist revolution in Germany, and are thus best seen as analogues to contemporary European socialists or social democrats who accept capitalism as the indispensable foundation of a welfare state.
4
You don't have to love a candidate to support them.
I have never loved Biden.
I have loved Pete and Mike and got so involved in their campaigns that I became kind of obsessed with supporting them, identifying with their successes and their defeats.
So I have been quite depressed the last day and last night but I remind myself, keep your eye on the prize.
We must defeat Trump.
I am supporting Biden because I want to defeat Trump and don't believe that anyone else running can do that.
Last night we saw that Bernie's younger supporters failed to materialize. I have four family members who are young and enthusiastic Sanders supporters. Did any of them vote? Maybe one at most. They go to rallies, talk a lot online and post on Facebooks and social networks. They also have a short attention span in many cases and often get so caught up in what they are doing that they don't follow through. Part of this is being young in 2020. He said today that the "youth vote" didn't pan out.
So that leaves the rest of us, often older, who have a tradition of voting as a civic duty, who wear those silly stickers, I voted, who want to defeat Trump.
It is becoming apparent that Biden is the candidate of the moderates whose candidates have all dropped out to support him. We are about 70% of the Dem primary voters.
So the math doesn't work for Bernie.
Don't personalize it when your candidate loses.
It's not worth it.
If you want to defeat Trump more than elect Bernie then join us.
37
Your post mirrors my thoughts exactly. I put my heart and checkbook into supporting Pete Buttigieg and I was so sad when he dropped out. But today is a new day and I will support Biden for his experience, wisdom, common sense platfirm, and kindness.
Bernie's campaign clearly got overconfident. They should have been working harder in states that they probably felt they would win (Maine, Mass). And because Biden seemed to be performing so poorly, they were seemingly waiting for him to run out of cash and time ...
Though Biden is now the favorite, the race has a long way to go. I'm not sure Biden will stand up to the scrutiny of being the frontrunner. The conventional wisdom is that he is a "safer" choice than Bernie. I don't see it. Both are risks. Whatever choice the voters end up making, I hope its done with a clear-eyed sense of the risks/rewards that Bernie and Biden equally pose.
6
Let's put credit for Joe's turnaround where it's due: African-Americans. Without them uplifting him in every state he won, he would not be here. It's about time we acknowledge the wisdom, strength and sacrifice of African-Americans. Over the centuries they have learned to vet slowly, and place trust where it's earned, rewarding those who earn it, or come closest to understanding the challenges they face. We could all learn by their example. Thank you.
60
Well said.
seems like I saw this play out before with Hillary.
@Mark Well said, sir.
Lots of Biden bashing and back-handed compliments here. Let's not forget, Biden has a long history in elected politics, knows the legislative branches, and is a formidable politician. Is he the best candidate on the debate stage? No, but neither is the guy in the oval office. Biden will hire a great team, and will be have long-established goodwill with our allies. He'll make a fine President, and I believe he will pleasantly surprise the naysayers. Let's go, Joe!
58
@Brian H. I am a Biden fan and feel happy and honored that he has an obvious chance at the nomination. It's not a strategy vote made out of fear but my first choice. Everyone keeps calling attention to Biden's debate flaws so I thought I would mention an article that may shed some light.
"What Joe Biden Can't Bring Himself To Say"
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/
Atlantic Magazine
3
It's probably time for progressive populists to realize that the Democratic party simply will not enact policies that materially help regular working people. That party is long gone. They will act like they're the nice guys and spout socially-liberal sounding platitudes, but ultimately, they are funded by Wall Street and Big Business, just like the GOP.
The GOP is the party of the rich and gets ordinary people to vote for them based on culture war issues. The DNC is the party of the rich and the courtier class of doctors, financiers, lawyers, and others in the urban upper-class who administer to the wealthy. They get ordinary people to vote for them by seeming kinder and more egalitarian than Republicans, but when the rubber hits the road they will enact nothing to help ordinary people at even the slightest expense to their donors' interests. Wall street bail-out? Yes sir! Healthcare and a liveable minimum wage? Way too radical. They will never back true health insurance reform.
It's time to form a new party that leaves the culture wars aside (those are never addressed through DC anyway) and focuses solely one thing: helping the ordinary, working families and reversing the total consolidation of wealth upward. Investing in the people. We will never win unless we can get all working people together in a new party. And the DNC sure ain't it.
Otherwise, we're on the road to becoming a country with no middle class, just a ruling big-city class and a vast underclass.
26
@kryptogal We do not have European, parliamentarian coalition politics. We have a practically inescapable Electoral College, the geography of which skews conservative, and a binary political system. Politics is the art of the possible. Dreaming up ideal platforms and then stomping our feet when an intersection of culture and electoral politics makes those platforms unrealistic is ineffective. The change you seek has no other route but to go through the Electoral College. Incrementalism isn't an ideal; it's a predicament for everyone. But to deny that reality makes no sense.
12
@kryptogal The world is a complex place. Revolutions rarely succeed. The problem with your comment is that you let your dream interfere with progress toward your dream. Historically, your comment about Democrats not delivering is ludicrous. Social Security, Medicare, ACA, increases in minimum wage, efforts to raise tax rates on the rich. In your all or nothing world, sadly, the result is almost always nothing. I can no longer pretend to be young. So my memory is long. McGovern, a very honorable man seeking peace in Vietnam lost in a landslide. Jimmy Carter, a very honorable man, had trouble getting things done as president. Barack Obama did accomplish something with the ACA. In case you do not remember, the votes in Congress were decided by the slimmest of margins. But they were won, and we made progress. Please do not throw away real progress for an unattainable dream.
31
@how-right As I said, that party is long gone. Everything you mentioned that the Democrats did was 50+ years ago.
The ACA accomplished protecting pre-existing conditions. But otherwise, it was merely a give-away to insurance companies by mandating that everyone buy their policies, and funding taxpayer money into private for-profit plans. Since the ACA was enacted, their profits have sky-rocketed. If you can name a single policy that Democrats have adopted since before the 1970s that did not primarily help big business and Wall Street, please do.
I'm sorry, but parties change. Lincoln was a Republican. Democrats used to be the party of the working class, 60 years ago. It is very obvious that is no longer the case, and those of us who care about the working class need to wake up and realize that party is long gone.
12
Bernie could still win the nomination, but after just one bad day many of his supporters are already showing themselves in a terrible light-- trying to bully Elizabeth Warren into withdrawing, threatening to boycott the general election, tossing around wild conspiracy theories, and generally showing that if Trump and Sanders are ideologically far apart, the behavior of their core supporters is not.
46
Yet the DNC is allowed to bully/bribe other candidates to drop out two days before a Super Tuesday. it wasn't an issue of money. Everyone know that's all the NYT is interested in. The working poor are not regular subscribers.
The fact that this Biden wave erupted so suddenly is the proof that there have been huge pent up yearning for a moderate candidate to vote for.
45
To my fellow Democrats on team Bernie:
I want you to know that you are not alone when it comes to your core values and desired outcomes. If I were granted three magical wishes, this is what I'd use them for:
1. A top-notch single-payer health system and the banishment of the private health insurance companies.
2. A capitalist economy that would, by law (c-suite/workers parity?), ensure that everyone is enriched when companies make money.
3. And, of course, amelioration of global warming and the restoration of our beloved planet.
Underneath all the vitriol and mistrust between us (I was team Pete, now Biden), I truly believe that we all come to our individual philosophies, preferences in political style, and theories of problems and policy solutions in good faith. I respect your goals, your policy portfolio, and mostly your sense of urgency to act starting yesterday. My guess is that you might wish for something like these too because we share so much in common; as humans first, as Americans second, and as Democrats third.
My best guess is that what separates us are our mental models of how American politics works and thus how to best move forward. For example, my mental model holds that very little can be accomplished with the Senate. I "know" that M4A is DOA, so I adjust my goal to M4A-WWI because it might have a chance. Although we assess "possible" differently, I respect you because I know you act from good faith and your policies embody your best thinking.
40
@C.S. I get what you are saying -- but I (and many on "Team Bernie", I suspect) do not feel Biden or the other centrist Democrats really want to move toward any of the core values or desired outcomes you list.
14
@Bruce Have you really looked at their platforms? For instance, here's Joe's take on climate change. It's not perfect, but it clearly supports a Green New Deal. Not Bernie's $16T, which though unGodly expensive was his platform point I was most sympathetic too, but $6.7T, which is still a lot of money towards slowing the decline of our only home. I think he should do more. Here are some details.
https://joebiden.com/climate/
3
@C.S. I think you are a nice guy. Too nice.
The Republicans have been getting their way for decades. It wasn't by being nice and reasonable and assuming everyone acted on good faith. It was by controlling the narrative since Reagan. Under Clinton and Obama aggressively going for what they want to the point of being obstructionist. And by gerrymandering. It worked.
Pete wasn't a decent candidate with a different political philosophy. He talked that game, but Pete was pretty calculating. The second the progressive lane wasn't working for him, he pivoted to the center quite quickly. Pete does whatever is best for Pete. M4A-WWI did not mean an incremental approach to M4A, it meant that Pete straight up did not support M4A. I think you mistakenly believed the Democrats lip service for actually supporting incremental progress. The Democrat politicians, and many supporters just want to win elections.
Bruce nailed it. We heard you, but we do not feel the centrist Dems are serious about our core issues.
I suspect many Democrats are still fighting the 1972 election to make sure they don't lose with McGovern again. Many Democrats and Republicans are still stuck in the Cold War and fear any mention of socialism or even taxes. Many just don't want Bernie's policies. Many like you want his policies but fear it is too big a risk. This won't change until for instance you believe Progressives are necessary for winning the Senate. That centrism is the bigger risk.
7
Biden didn't do anything, it had been the other moderate candidates and establishment Dems who did all the work for him. Not very presidential, some "leadership". I'd be surprised if that's good enough to beat Trump.
14
@Gray Goods
That’s not how it works in politics. Warren probably worked 10 times harder than any candidate and it didn’t work.
17
@CarolinaJoe: So, you believe Joe Biden has found the recipe to succeed in politics without even trying? Color me unimpressed. A politician whose staff is afraid of his public appearances doesn't strike me as an especially strong challenger, but rather as a trainwreck waiting to happen, sorry.
5
That’s a heck of a way to disregard African American voters and their preferences.
Could Biden have excelled without Clyburn's endorsement? Could he have succeeded without the sobering influence that Bloomberg played on the field? Also, Bloomberg has built a first class election machine that he can leverage. So, his $500 million is likely to see a return on investment. Andrew Yang suggested as much.
14
@JUHallCLU Agreed. Bloomberg provided what Joe did not have: money. Joe has what Mike did not: familiarity, and decent debate skills. Joe's cost per vote and delegate were 1/3 Sanders, vastly lower than anyone else's. He had the smallest ground campaign staff of anyone. His trust by the African-American community made all the difference in the voting. I respect their hard earned wisdom. You cannot buy it.
4
Next time please explain the 50 votes to abolish the ACA as well as McCains vote to keep it in place. And, the attacks he endured as a result of his vote.
Also, explain Trumps lies about having a "great health bill ready to go" and Paul Ryan's lies about his great replacement plan. We do not need you to explain the Democrat's policies. We understand increasing healthcare for the poor and sick. And they passed it with no Republican votes. Which is odd, given their Christian beliefs,
Now, "take my advice": Explain the Republican's policies and some (not all, too little space), of their lies.
19
Bottom line, Trump is now really concerned about facing Biden rather than Sanders. Throw in Mike Bloomberg's financial and logistical support - albeit indirect - Trump is really scared; as he should be.
37
@logic
Most unindicted criminals go through life scared.
Trump is no different.
2
Biden’s mental issues will only become more pronounced so it’s likely he will have a major episode before November and Trump will landslide
Ross, I woke up this morning at 8:30 AM. I hadn't awakened that late since prescribed muscle relaxants 20 years' ago for low-back, and oh so painful, spasms. I believe it was called Relief with a capital "R." These past four years have been angst-ridden, stressful, and downright frightening for me. Trump, of course, was/is 99% of this diagnosis of mine. The other 1% was the possible disunity of my Democratic Party. And, frankly, as much as I would or possibly will support Bernie, my gut continues to tell me that a good section of the Mid-West, Independents, and new Dems who were former Reps, could possibly stay home on that fateful November day which is around the corner. Thanks, Ross, for your advice. However, we need you to put your money - literally and figuratively - where your articulate words are: Support the Democratic nominee for POTUS. Although I hope it is Uncle Joe, I also mean Uncle Bernie, too.
13
More than 60% of Americans dislike Trump. They want normalcy. I believe that is the primary issue across members of both parties.
Biden’s success Tuesday was due to those Democrats who want an end to the daily noise from Washington; imagine the even greater %age of Republicans desiring the same relief. Once Biden proved he could win, the flight from Bernie was on.
Not the most charismatic candidate, Biden’s best shot at winning in November lies in riding anti-Trump sentiment. Yes, he could lose, but no worse than Bernie.
18
Joseph Biden is a rarity, a very kind, decent, honest politician. One of just a handful of Senators to not become multi millionaires while in office. Women, especially suburban moms, will vote overwhelmingly for Biden.
39
I would just like to understand this. Is Mr Douthat saying that someone from the democratic leadership spoke with him and said something like, "Gee, I wonder why we didn't think about that." Or did he call Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg and tell them to drop out? How about Bloomberg? Did he drop out because Mr. Douthat told he should. The reason Mr. Biden is moving ahead and the others are dropping out,is because of the weakness of the other candidates, their poor vote count, as well as their diminished funding. Bloomberg saw the writing on the wall. Why throw good money after bad? But there may be a price for the drop outs. Bernie's supporters are zealots and they may see this as another DNC and political elitist's action to stop him just like in 2016. The question is when the convention is over, how will Sanders' supporters vote or will it be non votes. And how enthused will those who were going out to the far left be with Biden. It will be interesting.
5
It's not that Republicans didn't love any of the NeverTrump candidates. It's that they DID love Trump... because he gave them what they'd wanted for years, and none of the GOP's other candidates had been quite morally despicable enough to give them.
That is why more Republicans voted for Trump in the 2016 primary than for any GOP presidential candidate in history, and that is why 90% of them have lined up behind him now -- no matter what lies he tells, who he betrays, or what American institutions he destroys.
Biden won't say what I just said... which is why he just might win. The question is: what happens next if he does?
9
Exactly right. Trump is the continuation of Reagan and Bush Jr. Republicans love the racism, the misogyny, the anti-semitism. That's what they're all about.
"the Democrats took my advice"
It would be somewhat less self-centered to remind us of your suggestion, and observe that Democrats seem to have been thinking along the same lines.
Yet to be revealed: whether this happened because of counter-entropy on the part of the party's leaders or anti-entropy on the part of its primary voters.
6
@grennan If Dems really listen to the advices of Republicans like Douthat, that's the road to ruin.
1
The electorate chose. The Party decided. No, folks you and I enter the voting booth one at a time, always and everywhere, and each one of us casts an individual vote. These are counted and the "will of the people" is adduced. That's the logic of democracy.
Millions of individuals walked into their respective voting cubicles and pulled, pressed, circled or checked "Biden, Joseph R."
Millions more will check the same name in November and overwhelm the millions who will check the name of the impeached one. And President Biden will take the oath of office in January.
That's how it works, Ross. That's why my vote is so precious to me.
19
Well-stated. We should all take our civic responsibility seriously. Our veterans have fought and died for our freedoms. For people to sit home and not vote because their favorite isn’t on the ballot, or the nominee isn’t “inspiring” enough is ludicrous. We each have a right and responsibility to be informed and vote.
1
Is everyone forgetting that Sanders isn't a Democrat? Never was, only had to join the party to run for president in 2016. Why would the DNC *NOT* try to get someone who has worked for and within the party on the ballot as their party's representative, instead of someone who only came over when he had to...?
What am I missing here? Honestly!
38
@Anthony You're missing that Trump once was a Dem and Hillary, Warren and Bloomberg Republicans. Bernie, however, never has been in the GOP. So much for the party loyalty you demand.
3
@Anthony
You should be glad he is running as a democrat because if he ran as an independent, the democrats are doomed. And instead of being grateful, people like you dump on him. Do you remember Nader?
@Anthony Your point cannot be stated often enough. As a lifelong and committed Democrat, I'm disgusted by the cynicism and naked opportunism of Sanders in flouting the party for decades then trying to steal its mantle. The endless whining of his supporters just makes them look stupid: "The DNC is stacked against Bernie!" they moan. No kidding -- he's not a Democrat. We Democrats prefer candidates who are.
I have said since Day One that Joe is our only hope. And I have heaped shame on the other vanity wishful thinkers who detracted from unifying around Joe in the first place. The whole mess prompted Bloomberg to jump into the fray and spend millions of dollars just to stop the Sanders tidal wave.
Just. Sad. If we get 4 more years of Trump, we have a former mayors and current senators (and others who no one ever heard of) to blame.
1
The Democratic candidates dropped out not because they were responding to pressure from the Party. Rather, they were patriotic in the truest sense by placing the well being of the American people above their personal ambitions.
This is a fundamental difference between Democrats and Republicans in today's political culture.
Republican politicians seek power and self aggrandizement above all else and use allegiance to Trump and the Republican Party as a vehicle to achieve those ends, even if it means lying constantly, harming the public, and destroying our democratic institutions.
52
Good analysis.
Bernie had three things going against him, if in fact it is over.
First, he might have liked the "socialist" tag as a badge of commitment, but it was seen as a heavy burden for his candidacy. He might have tried to explain the numerous examples of how we have socialism in this country now, in order to elevate the debate, but he chose not to.
Second, he does come off a bit negative and curmudgeonly, which can make voters think that he won't wear well if elected, or that he can even win in the first place (it feels repulsive to say this, but somehow Trump could even make him look old and crazy and not charming in the least).
Third, his lack of practicality in dismissing fears about what he proposed was a fairly weak effort on his part. If he could have stood up for his signature health care proposal, and really provided numbers and explanations for why it would have been cheaper in the long run, he could have either dispelled critics or made him seem more reasonable.
Frankly, his age and having the heart attack, while not disqualifying, were also negative factors in the outcome.
22
@Srose And the fact that so many people just don’t like that guy. When I see his face on tv, I mute it, same as I do with trump.
14
Had Republicans followed this advice in 2016 they would have simply lost the election. Turning on Sanders in favor of Biden since no one else was a available will prove a pyrrhic victory come November.
10
@Frunobulax
No one is turning on Bernie. It is just the bunker mentality of Bernie supporters.
@Frunobulax No one is turning on Sanders. Most Democrats do not now, and never have, nor ever will, like that kook.
@Frunobulax Maybe Biden can get the GRU to take out FB ads for him too...
The consolidation of Biden came as consequence of negatives waves that Sanders produced.
6
PleaseNotSanders _is_ NeverTrump . NeverTrump is the aim, PleaseNotSanders just the means. I voted for Biden, but if Sanders ends up the nominee, I'll donate/canvass/vote for him and not think he's a danger the country's essence. The Trump/Sanders analogies only go so far.
17
Well, the Democratic establishment really handed it to the Undead candidate. The best he can say for himself is "I'm still alive," but that seems to be enough for the primaries. He's done very little to earn support, running an uninspired, disorganized campaign and stumbling at debates and on the campaign trail. Though younger than Sanders, he's a shadow of his former self. Had the moderates hung on another three days, he might have lost to Sanders in Minnesota, Maine, Massachusetts, and Texas as well, especially if Beto had not provided a key Texas endorsement Monday. As Obama's loyal vice president, he continues to hold an enormous edge among older African American voters, which helped him to dominant wins in the South, despite a poor record on de-segregation and the 1994 Crime Bill. He was also aided by Elizabeth Warren's decision to keep going through Super Tuesday. Had she dropped out at the same time as Buttigieg and Klobuchar, the #'s suggest that Bernie might have won 3-4 more states, including Texas.
Now the pro-business moderates are all in a confederacy against Sanders, so Biden will run up a lead in the South, like Clinton. Since his vote totals are independent of his performance, a spotlight on his subsequent poor debate performances will not be held against him. However, I have little reason to believe that he'll do any better against Trump than Clinton, as none of the South will be in play outside of VA and NC.
13
@Josh Why do you doubt the wisdom of African-American voters who are the real reason Biden is where he is today? He consistently polled at 48% nationally vs. Sanders 20%. That's a huge difference.
1
@Josh fine, because trump can not win without VA and NC!
Ross Douthat ignores the role of voters, African-American voters in South Carolina led white and black Democrats across many states in choosing Biden. Super Tuesday’s results were not caused by party bosses or elected officials or candidates but by voters.
16
@Peter I've read comments saying the Democratic machine robbed Bernie of victory yesterday, when it looks like a grassroots movement on the part of African American and older, center-left voters making a pragmatic choice to pick the guy more likely to beat Trump this fall. I'm not sure the Democratic machine could do its machinations to throw an election for junior high class president.
11
@Peter
No, but Cong. Clyborrn gave the sermon in South Carolina and Democratic voters paid attention, to produce VP Biden's first ever primary win in three campaigns. None of the rest could have occurred without South Carolina.
Solid disection of the Biden "miracle" and contrast with the Republican primaries 4 years ago. Another factor to consider is that while the majority of the Republican base was ready to buy what Trump was selling, the majority of the Democratic base is not ready to join a socialist revolution.
13
Well if Biden gets the nomination (not my first choice), I hope the Bernie supporters once again do not fold up their tents and go home. We still have a lot a work to do before the country will accept single payer. It is unfortunate people don't realize we have socialism already with real estate taxes, roads, and public schools, Social security, medicare and the 40 hour work week. Why is Finland the happiest country in the world? Could it be they don't have to worry about going bankrupt from medical costs. I am voting for whoever the Dem nominee is, we have to get Trump out of here and retake the Senate. Small steps can yield big results over time.
23
@bluegirlredstate We could have all those things, but we'd have to restructure our finances over time. Big social policy countries, like Denmark, have big taxes on everyone. If we can all agree to it, fine, but as we all know Americans hate taxes because they have no idea what their contribution buys, and our government actually costs. The math that the 1.4K billionaires alone could afford such programs for the remaining 329M in perpetuity just doesn't pencil out. The main ingredient missing for us all to pay more in taxes is trust, pure and simple. Trust is earned when there are honest enforcement of the rules, which has not been the case since BushII and Bill Barr's first term as AG. Barr entered office after 900 people went to jail for the S&L crisis. After he altered DOJ policy from time to fines, only one person went to jail for the '08 fiscal crisis, even though it was 100M greater in scale. Since Trump undermines trust in everything, but particularly the legal system, the first thing to do towards trying to re-establish it is to get him out.
1
@bluegirlredstate the Bernie bros will indeed pout and sulk, just like Bernie. Because it is also a cult of personality.
1
In the Trump vs Biden Election the more honest choice is Trump! Support the true new-lib, Trump! I will vote Trump if dems Nominate Biden! Trump— the honest man’s neo-lib!
I realize that Douthat finds very appealing, "to consolidate a lot of Democratic voters with a message of restoration and continuity."
I don't. Many Democratic voters do not.
If that is what the Democratic Party offers, again, it is going to lose those voters, again. We are not Republicans. We are not happy. We don't want to consolidate and continue.
13
@Mark Thomason
The voters actually voted last Tuesday to return to normalcy and for reforms that Bernie would never had chance to pass because of his utter inability to support moderate Democratic candidates for Senate and for the House.
9
@Mark Thomason So by implication, Biden is a Republican. That would be news to him and to all the Democrats that support him.
Wow, this is super democratic, what a thing to celebrate, we undermined what a plurality of voters were wanting.
7
"Mr. Sanders acknowledged in a news conference that he had 'not done as well in bringing young people into the process' as he had expected, but he argued that would change in November should he get the nomination."
I'm unsure what plurality you're referring to. The cumulative moderate vote has been a majority. Expecting the 18-24 vote to materialize in a general--something that has never happened--is magical thinking.
36
@David Or achieved what a majority of voters were wanting. If Bernie and Warren were teaming up to stick it to the establishment, you would be cheering. So much butthurt emanating from the Sanders wing. Get over it. I've voted for Kucinich in more than one presidential primary. He didn't win and I got over it.
Well Ross doesn’t have to stay home now – he can vote for his fellow conservative Joe Biden.
“Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg were on a stage with Joe Biden” BECAUSE THEY WANT A JOB and they probably got a big nudge from the DNC who wants Biden as the candidate.
Bloomberg is an oligarch; he doesn’t need a job.
The Democratic Party is consolidating around Biden, but that doesn’t mean unity. They are consolidating around fear, around the self-interest of major actors, and around the party’s obsession with the status quo. Elect Biden and nothing will have to change.
So don’t be fooled by superficial appearances of unity in the Democratic Party. Progressives like myself may vote for Biden as an anti-Trump gesture, but we will be left – once again – out of any “unity” equation. It’s time to look for a new party.
19
@Michael Thank you for your willingness to vote for Biden. We know he is not what you want. He is not what we want either. We want a woman. We want somebody who is younger than Moses.
3
@Michael
You have to find a better candidate next time, and convince more people to your cause. Blaming others won’t cut it. That’s what Bernie supporters have been doing last 3 years and look where they (you) are. Bernie lost ground in 2020.
Look in the mirror.
1
@CarolinaJoe
But you didn't address my point about the unity of the party. I'm blaming the system. Read my comment.
2
Sanders has a choice to make,..in one, he could possibly go down in history as the great hero of the progressive movement. By strongly backing Biden now, reassured by Joe that once elected democrats will tilt toward single payer over time, and calling for unity, Bernie will not only get much of what he wants, but Trump will be gone.
But, if Bernie chooses to play the spoiler and sore loser, rolling the dice on the nomination, while egging on his more radical supporters, much as Nadir did, in the fantasy that somehow the perfect really is the enemy of the good, he can be the tipping point that keeps Trump in the white house and the senate and house in republican hands. This would make him, like Nadir, one of histories saddest figures.
The third choice is for both candidates to agree now, that whoever has the most delegates wins, (keeping out super-dekegates) and that the runner up will enthusiastically and wholeheartedly endorse and campaign for the winner. This mollifies many supporters on both sides and allows for a spirited and hopefully civil debate, focused on getting Trump out.
19
@JEB Let's not forget that Sanders stands for a lot more than single payer alone. One of the elements key to the remainder of the programs is independence from monied interests, which fuels the Democratic centrists. Buttigieg had 40 billionaires supporting him. Biden, like Hillary Clinton, has a limited campaign schedule because much of his time is spent at rich donor events. Sanders, with his New Deal programs, is frightening to them not because his programs are so radical but because he cannot be bought.
5
@JEB
If he does that, he doesn't go down as a hero. If he betrays his base and his own values to back biden, we get more of the same and no meaningful change. The DNC and biden won't be grateful and won't support Sanders' initiatives.
1
@Josh I agree in part, but if democrats think that eliminating left leaning capitalists from the democratic party is a road to power and a viable strategy, I think they’re kidding themselves. Instead welcome them, and sure,..try and get them to see the world your way, but don’t cut off your nose to spite your face. There are plenty of good, well off people in Democratic Socialist countries, willing to pay their fare share, but who also want the freedom to be their own boss, start a business, and test their ideas. As long as they are honest, willing to play by the rules, etc. I say welcome to the party.
Joe Biden as a person offers little inspiration. This article confirms him as an institutional choice - a representative of the party and a “player” in a system that is only interested in perpetuating itself. Trump won in contrast to this. Sanders could possibly win as well , for similar reasons. Is the public looking for simple verification of all the good that the status quo can offer? Clearly Douhat and the bulk of democrats are. Can this defeat trump? I personally doubt it.
12
@Brian Nickel You're aware that Douthat is a Republican? Even more reason to be worried.
Ross, it’s simpler than what you write. We Democrats are much more willing to recognize the inevitable, and stop fighting against the incoming tide. In short, it’s less hubris and a hunger for raw Power. That’s a huge factor in the gender divide. Women like working together, Men much prefer a competition. In everything.
Just saying.
15
I agree (though I doubt the Dems in the race “took your advice” Ross, but nice try). Politics is a lot like sports — experts tell me what’s going to happen before the game or the election then act surprised when things don’t work out as planned. The voters are speaking. If they aren’t speaking what some voters (or non voters) don’t want to hear, well that’s politics. Basing your whole political operation on what folks in Iowa and New Hampshire think is probably a bad idea. For the good of the party, Sen Warren must drop out by the end of the week. If Sen Sanders doesn’t win in Michigan next Tuesday, he needs to take a hard look at what his future might be.
Also, this notion that Joe Biden is in “cognitive decline” after being awake and on the road for weeks is laughable.
14
I seriously doubt that two such confident and honorable politicians as Buttigieg and Klobuchar need anyone to tell them anything. They are smart, and they knew that their campaigns had traveled their limits. They also know that the ONLY way to beat Trump is to offer a Democratic candidate who can unify. Bernie cannot do that, and I don't care what the polling says. Lord knows that Joe isn't perfect. But he is decent and a stark contrast to Trump's vileness. Super Tuesday proved that coalescing behind Joe is working with practical Democrats.
68
@Carol And Pete and Amy and probably the so-called Democratic "establishment" saw that the BLACK DEMOCRATIC BASE seriously RALLIED and TURNED OUT for BIDEN. They took their cue from this.
The young and other presumed progressive non-voters have not rallied and TURNED OUT as much as hoped by the Bernie campaign. We cannot bank on these (still) non-voters to turn out and win the Presidency, let alone the Senate and other down-ballot wins the Democrats REQUIRE in order to get ANYTHING done.
This is why pragmatic Democrats who want to save our country rallied around Biden to give him momentum in time for Super Tuesday, even if Biden was not originally their favorite candidate. They took their cue from the COMMITTED Democratic base of black voters--not because they are corporate sell-outs with their strings being pulled by billionaires in the background.
7
@Carol ...You might have added that uniting the country is a critical issue. Something Sanders could never do.
2
@SusannaMac Amen.
The CA results are in and Biden has about a 50 delegate edge on Sanders.
If Warren, whom we supported , drops out as she should it will be mano e mano from now to the end. Sanders was very strong in the midwest so do not count him out yet.
9
We will get nothing other than more of the same things we have gotten since R.Reagan. We will get Insurance companies continuing to make billions, the pharmaceutical industry making billions, Wall Street not paying their fair share, more billionaires who don't pay their fair share in taxes, corporate welfare, farm subsidies, rents that nobody can afford, a shrinking middle class and health care that will continue to bankrupt Americans if they get sick.
Thank you to the American Democratic voters.
16
@Magan
Same thing would happen even if Sanders were to win the Presidency, not just the nomination. Revolution, hope and change cannot be achieved without a cooperative Congress--both houses. Never mind the real possibility of a GOP landslide all the way down the ballot should we nominate Sanders--with the Senate we currently have (and even one with a Dem. non-super majority), there is no chance that any of Bernie's ideals can be achieved. Authenticity & passion can't overcome stubbornness, massive ego, and refusal to try to persuade those who don't agree with a candidate...or a President.
Exit polls last night showed a distinct majority of voters--even in those carried by Biden--support free college & childcare, raised minimum wage and Medicare-for-All. The reason they voted for Biden over Bernie? Because they realized those goals stood a better chance with Biden in the White House--and that the race for President must be won in all states across all demographics.
Bernie & his supporters think numbers+momentum=a movement; but that "movement" cannot be confined to blue states, millennials and nostalgic ex-1960s anti-war Boomers (of which I admittedly am one, albeit more pragmatic). Maximizing turnout among the faithful isn't going to work unless one can also persuade the unconverted--and that takes a willingness to explain one's position and how to achieve it, plus refusal to dismiss and ignore the nonbelievers.
23
@Magan Why is it only the Democrats fault? Why are the Republicans getting a pass? As I see it, both parties are to blame for the mess this country is in, but I give the Democrats the edge insofar as caring for the "masses" and not just the wealthy.
Trump allegedly told some members at Mar-a-Largo to the effect that with the tax cuts he made them a boatload of money, And I don't think he was talking to the "masses".
6
@Magan - Evidently that's what most Americans want. We keep electing leaders who give us that because we are too fearful to do anything else. We get what we deserve.
But at least we are "free".
3
I would also like to add that we really see democracy at work here within the Democratic Party. Just last week all the commentary was that Sanders was a shoo-in to take the nomination.
But in South Carolina and with Super Tuesday, Democratic voters showed who they think has the best chance to beat Trump. It now looks like Biden is the preferred candidate for Democratic voters which admittedly may change yet again as the primaries continue.
So it is indeed refreshing to see democracy working (for a change).
40
@Doug Or fear.
I can't help but wonder if this drives a considerable amount of Bernie's supports to Trump?
Or will they simply not vote at all. It seems hard to support a party that coordinated against the candidate of your choosing.
8
Honestly if Bernie supporters would rather not vote or would throw their vote to Trump over the will of most democratic voters then I think you answered your own question.
I am not a Bernie fan, but I will vote and work to get out the vote for whoever the eventual democratic nominee is ... full stop.
15
@Stephen I think it will depend on whether Biden tries to really unite the party - moderates and progressives - or if he just takes progressives for granted, which is what usually happens. Trust me, people will notice if a real attempt is not made.
6
@Stephen Moderates represent a clear majority of the Democratic electorate, but their vote was being split. With now only Biden and Sanders in the race, the primary result will be more representative. This kind of consolidation of support is exactly what is supposed to happen during a primary.
9
I'm looking forward to the next debate. Joe will be forced to operate without a TelePrompter for the first time in quite a while.
Joe is a lot like Trump in this regard. When working with a TelePrompter and reading a speech that someone else wrote Trump can sound sane, almost Presidential. Without the visual aid the President can scarcely string together a coherent sentence.
10
To the so-called moderate ‘left’: please stop buying what is being sold to you. The establishment ‘left’ has overseen the most unequal distribution of wealth in history. It has voted to repeal the separations between commercial and investment banking. It has supported legislation making it more difficult for working families to discharge credit card debt in bankruptcy. It has voted for the Iraq war.
Is this what you thought they were campaigning for? Is this what aligns with your priorities?
To the people who can’t draw their attention away from Donald Trump: please stop engaging with the convenient fiction that he represents all that is evil. Our country is sick, and it’s not because of Donald Trump. But that narrative does conveniently help the truly powerful malign interests in our country.
Just a friendly reminder in case you have been seduced, again, by the politicians and the media, and perhaps the (maybe secret) perception that the moderate ‘left’ will be better for your 401k.
17
@Aaron Right. Which party has been in control 50% more of the time these last 40 years?
@Aaron -- to the Bernie supports.
Please stop thinking that you can convince people to vote against their own economic interests by supporting Sanders.
You don't understand politics in America, because you live in your own echo chamber. You don't even show up in sufficient numbers to give your candidate victories in primaries, but you expect us to believe that he will somehow magically increase turn-out in states that matter (i.e., not already solidly Democratic)?
The first thing you do when you're in a hole is to stop digging. Allowing the current president to remain in office for four more years would be the equivalent of bringing boring equipment to make that hole bigger.
Stop digging us into a hole.
1
@Aaron
"Marginally better than" beats a merely theoretical "best."
Our country is indeed sick. But there is NO chance of closing the wealth-and-income gap, even slightly, with Trump and his henchfolk controlling our gov't.
A refusal to accept "better than" over "ideal" preserves (and likely worsens) the "awful."
Sanders has a choice to make,..in one he could possibly go down in history as the great hero of the progressive movement. By strongly backing Biden now, reassured by Joe that once elected democrats will tilt toward single payer over time, and calling for unity, Bernie will not only get much of what he wants, but Trump will be gone.
But, if Bernie chooses to play the spoiler and sore loser, rolling the dice on the nomination, while egging on his more radical supporters, much as Nadir did, in the fantasy that somehow the perfect really is the enemy of the good, he can be the tipping point that keeps Trump in the white house and the senate and house in republican hands. This would make him, like Nadir, one of histories saddest figures.
The third choice is for both candidates to agree now, that whoever has the most delegates wins, (keeping out super-dekegates) and that the runner up will enthusiastically and wholeheartedly endorse and campaign for the winner. This mollifies many supporters on both sides and allows for a spirited and hopefully civil debate, focused on getting Trump out.
15
@JEB Fear not, spoiler sanders will be, for sure, no chance he gets it.
@JEB I'm a deep Bernie supporter. At this moment, I think he should simply withdraw. He does not need to and should not "back" Biden; Biden has the entire DNC and establishment media empires behind him now. No, pull out and let the cheese stand alone.
The frank assessments of Joe will then start rolling in, along with epic hand-wringing and attempts to censor any unvarnished historical accounting of Biden's decades of illiberal decisions and Obama legacy, since he's running on the "I Was with Him" platform. The smarm about "decency" (ask Anita Hill about that) will give way to bullying and demands for "unity," which means "agree with me and vote the way I tell you to."
Bernie should simply do his work in the senate. Let the chips fall where they may.
Nadir, good one.
1
@Penn
Even better would be him running as an independent. Force the democrats to actually earn progressive votes for once.
I finally feel like there's a plan and a - somewhat - united front. For the first time in months, I'm feeling hopeful!
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@Cathleen Me, too!
Two comments on two possible scenarios:
1. If trends continue, I hope Bernie Bros will throw their considerable energies into Congressional and Senate races even if they're disappointed with the presidential candidate. Serious change requires Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. Biden would sign progressive legislation if it could get through Congress.
2. I hope Elizabeth Warren stays in the race and continues to pick up delegates where she can. I think she would make the best president of the remaining septuagenarian contenders. A brokered convention is a long shot, but a lot can happen in the coming months. Not only are the two leaders flawed in various ways and quite capable of self-sabotage, they are both in the most vulnerable demographic for the corona virus (so is Trump for that matter). I still think the Times' editorial endorsements were correct. Although my first choice was Klobuchar, I think Warren could bridge the gap between the Bidenistas and the Bernie Bros, and she would skewer Trump in debates. I have much less confidence in Biden or Sanders on that stage.
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@Robert Bott
Warren would indeed eviscerate Trump on the debate stage--but so did Hillary in 2016. How'd that work out?
I worry that the same demographic that Bernie would alienate in Nov. would be nearly as hostile to Warren. We need everyone in all states--not just blue-staters, millennials and aging progressives nostalgic for the '60s Gene McCarthy movement--to vote Democratic (for all offices all the way down the ballot) if we have ANY hope of making progress towards economic equality and restoring our democracy and relationships with allies.
3
@Robert Bott Stop calling us Bernie Bros would be a good start.
Please, Ross. While it may seem as if Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Democratic leadership followed the outlines of what you proposed as a means of blunting the impact of Sanders' trajectory, don't delude yourself into believing that "the Democrats took [your] advice". The direction that the Democrats want to take this country is vastly different from the direction in which you want to take it, and they will always look askance at your "advice".
13
@syfredrick
I think he was being tongue-in-cheek.
@syfredrick As to the advice of an admitted conservative like Douthat: even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
If it weren't for his cognitive decline, I'd be far less concerned about Biden running. Though granted, it's not like Trump is as sharp as he was in 2016.
4
@Jessica Mayorga
Biden sometimes tends to let his brain run ahead of his mouth. It's not a cognitive decline, but rather a lifelong coping mechanism to keep his stutter at bay.
Trump was never "sharp" except in the sense of a cheating card "sharp." Trump is definitely in the early-mid-stage of age-related dementia, and it's accelerating.
2
Biden is going to have to realize he cannot win if he completely alienates the progressive wing of the party. After last night, the Bernie diehards have to acknowledge that this huge surge of new voters who will propel Sanders to the presidency does not exist. Bernie lost states he won in the 2016 primaries and the youth vote was down. As a Warren supporter, I don’t think we need to give up on the future but we need to be pragmatic instead of bitter.
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@Bill B
Biden will not alienate progressive Democrats who are actually Democrats--but Bernie is doing a bang-up job of alienating not only "moderate" Dems but liberals as well. (I should know: I "felt the Bern" in the 2016 IL primary but was mature enough to accept party unity after the convention--too bad not enough voters in MI, PA and especially WI were as well).
Exit polls last night showed that a majority of Biden voters want Medicare-for-All, a $15 minimum wage, and free public college & child care--all cornerstones of Bernie's platform. So why did they vote for Biden? Because they knew Bernie hadn't the chance of a snowball in a sauna to achieve that as President--much less win the Presidency.
3
@Sandy
No sandy, they voted for biden because they don't understand his policy positions or who he represents. If you want medicare for all, you probably shouldn't vote for a candidate who has made it clear he isn't going to fight for it - and in fact had a small part in creating the insurance industry handout known as the ACA (and blowing a golden opportunity to fight for M4A).
The simple reason Democrats are less disillusioned with Obama than Republicans were with Bush is that Bush was an unmitigated disaster, wasting our armed forces, cooking up a financial crisis that almost destroyed the global economy, and burning trillions in debt.
Obama spent his entire administration mitigating the damage done by Bush, mostly in the face of a recalcitrant congress.
Despite his colossal mismanagement of the response to 9/11, Bush's approval ratings hovered around 60% at the time of his reelection.
Trump is still in the low 40% range. He has spent far more energy proactively damaging the federal government. If he wins, except an equivalent or worse 4 years to what we got under Bush. Even if he loses, whoever inherits the office will have a mammoth task in rebuilding.
I would love for 12 or 16 years of Democratic executive control so they could actually spend some time proactively working instead of running damage control.
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@Dan --
I think most adult-minded Democrats realize that a Democratic president without a strongly Democratic Congress is pointless. That's why we're willing to be open-minded about Obama and Clinton. They spent the majority of their time as president unable to get legislation through Congress.
2
We Democrats are proving we are the grown ups in the room.
We are prepared and ready to lead America out of its Trumpian nightmare and begin a center left path to progress.
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I’m one of those who was supporting a different moderate who dropped out and I am now a Biden supporter, so that consolidation strategy definitely worked. I would vote for anyone over Trump, but Bernie was my least favorite among the front runners and that’s because his message of rage, revolution and “my way or the highway” just makes him sound like a left version of Trump. He’s much smarter and more qualified and ultimately so much better, but I don’t know how open he’ll be to listening to Americans outside of his base, and the screamers in his base also remind me of Trump supporters. I’m all for free healthcare, but do I want going to a doctor to be like going to the DMV? Most countries he references as having model healthcare have a private option, but he’s not going to consider that? If he gets elected, it will continue a trend of a deeply divided America and that’s why the Russians are meddling in support of him as well as Trump. I’m also afraid that Bernie will NOT offer a moderate a seat at the table. I don’t know if Biden will offer a progressive a seat at the table, but I feel he’s more likely to be thoughtful in that respect than Bernie is.
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@Sick Of Trump You NAILED it!
U.S. Representative James Clyburn, who started the rush to Biden, deserves a lot of the credit for the consolidation of moderate Democratic support.
94
@Demosthenes
African American voters in general deserve a lot of credit.
They were the adults in the party; they may have very well saved the country from both extremes.
I listened to Clyburn's speech and it was extraordinarily poignant.
11
I see more similarities between Biden and Trump than Sanders and Trump. Neither Trump nor Biden care about policy, and both do what they can to gain power but will do nothing for the people, unless those people are corporations.
I am not sure who will win (Biden or Trump) but it really doesn't matter because neither will do anything meaningful. And that is what the corporate democrats and republican pundits of the east coast want. Nothing should change because the wealthy are doing well.
12
After three years of Trump, I think the idea that there is no difference between the parties has lost a lot of credibility.
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@Chris I totally disagree. trump and Biden are totally not alike, either in personality or any other way. Biden has been heavily involved in policy making for many, many years- whether you agree on disagree with the policies themselves. Furthermore, at least in the times that it could be done, Biden has bipartisan credentials. I don't know what a 'corporate' democrat even is? Perhaps you could explain? is it possible that there are actually quite a few voters that just don't either like Sanders as a person, don't agree with his policy proposals, or even both? I suspect it is. Finally, the millions of actual voters that voted are each one an individual, voting as their beliefs dictate. I don't suppose you would argue they don't have such a right would you?
20
@Ellen H. Bromley
Exit polls last night showed that a majority of Biden voters DO support Bernie's policy proposals--yet they voted for Biden over Bernie. Why? Because they knew Bernie's personality and refusal to try to persuade the unconverted make it impossible to implement those policies, even in the unlikely event he wins in Nov.
Would I want Bernie as Pres.? Sure--but ONLY along with a progressive-leaning House & Senate, which would never happen with him heading the ticket!
4
A compelling analysis. But a fourth important reason, not noted in the article, is the voters. Hundreds of thousands of Thoughtful voters of all demographics switched from their first choice within a couple of days to vote for Biden on Tuesday in the Democratic primaries.
39
Thank you, Mr. Douthat. You generously gave credit to qualities of good character - in the broadest sense - in politicians with whom you don't usually agree. And the fact that you can be generous - and I am sure still fight for your ideas another day - makes me hopeful.
10
In 2016 Bernie scored surprisingly well relative to Hillary Clinton. As a Bernie supported I wondered if Hillary would try to reach out to the Bernie supporters to try to unify the party. Nothing doing -- she chose as her VP the non-entity Tim Kaine. This may very well have cost her the presidency. Will Biden make the same mistake?
In 2020 it's more difficult for the establishment to be completely dismissive of the left-wing.
There are many on the left who do not approve of Biden. There a good reasons for that: 1) key senate attack dog pushing for the invasion of Iraq; 2) Author of mass incarceration bill in the 90s; 3) big supporter of financial deregulation leading to 2008 economic collapse; 4) played key role in getting Clarence Thomas nominated to SCOTUS, and the list goes on.
I believe these epic blunders make Biden a weak consdidate. If Biden does get nominated, which is still by no means guaranteed, he would do well to head the lessons of 2016, and take the left seriously.
19
@Eric
First, Bernie performance in 2020 is much weaker than in 2016. No revolution and little evidence of new voters. Second, Biden faults are hugely exaggerated, as if he was singlehandedly responsible for all Republican missteps.
12
@Eric --
the people who would do well to heed (not head) the lessons of 2016 are the Bernie supporters who either didn't vote or voted for Jill Stein.
The lesson is that you are either with the Democrats or with the current president.
You decide.
14
@CarolinaJoe I'm on the fence about Biden right now. If he is nominated I probably will vote for him in Nov. However, I consider his record to be terrible and enormously destructive to the world and the US. He was on the wrong side of history for most of the key inflection points in recent US history. If you read the polls you'll understand that most Democrats under 40 seem to agree with me (although I'm 67). If you think you can win without us, I'd suggest you do some introspection. Otherwise, 4 more years of Trump.
7
I think Buttigeig and Klobachar got the "talk" from the DNC and some of the elders of the Dem. party. Play nice now and you get perks later. O.K. At this point the only thing that matters is beating Trump. 4 more years of insanity is not tolerable. Not a big fan of Biden, but he has the best shot at boosting the down ticket. Keep the house and win the Senate. Trump's nightmare.
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I don’t think there’s that kind of control from the top anymore. More likely their decisions were motivated by a combination of party unity, along the lines Douthat describes, and plain old self-interest. Klobuchar, in particular, seems positioned to be on the ticket with Biden as she no doubt is perceived as having delivered Minnesota to him. Buttigieg may also be angling for a reward in a Biden administration
18
I said exactly that to my daughter: the leaders of the dnc told these candidates to give their support to Biden once they’ve given up their candidacy. And if they were to decline, well you’re out Period! That’s politics!
7
@Josef K. All of the Democratic candidates were/are good people with strong values and love for the country. It will be important to keep these young(er) people involved in government at high levels. They are now well-known and have established credentials among the public. It stands to reason that they will want to continue to contribute to US society. We are lucky to have them.
24
Here’s the worry - that Democrats are coalescing around a candidate experiencing mental decline. Biden did poorly here in NH in town hall speeches, and his staff refused Q and As afterwards. His staff also refused press interviews. His debate performances were stumbling, and bewildering at times (“play the phonograph more to increase academic performance”?). He told South Carolina he’s “running for the US Senate”. He introduced his wife as his sister. The list of such stumbles and misspeaking is long. All signs of mental decline, not unexpected in a 77 year old. Has his staff been working diligently to hide this from us? Are we selecting a candidate who’s not up to the task? I hope Liz Warren hangs in there long enough to pick up the pieces, if/when Biden’s campaign falls apart.
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@John Ranta Does not matter. We have now a president who declined mentally decades ago, if he ever had it at all. His speeches and rally performances are stumbling and bewildering more than at times.
If Biden is elected and does nothing for 4 years we will be way ahead of the best imaginable if Trump is re-elected.
If the Republicans keep control of the Senate, which is likely, a Democratic president can use the Trump-expanded Executive powers, declare national emergencies and divert funds from other programs, and do some things with foreign policy that do not require treaty approval, and that's about it.
79
@Alan It matters. There are different standards. Democrats care about competence, we think a president needs to be able to run the government. Trump’s base think his incoherency is a feature, not a bug. So what if he trashes the federal government, isn’t that the point of being a Republican?
If Biden can’t put coherent thoughts together, and can’t debate, he shouldn’t be the nominee. The sooner we figure that out, the better.
17
@John Ranta The notion that Biden is experiencing mental decline seems to be a big misconception. Biden has battled and managed a stuttering issue since his pre-teen years. Unscripted events such as campaign rallys, debates, and TV interviews have always been more difficult for him because of this. Most people aren't aware of this and misconstrue moments in which he is consciously holding back his stutter as evidence of mental deterioration. Yet there are plenty of instances where he has it under control and is able to speak as eloquently as any other good speaker. Besides, I think the whole issue is being overblown when you consider that Trump is legitimately incapable of speaking in coherent sentences.
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"But instead, in a whirlwind few days, the Democrats took my advice . . . "
That's a bit of a stretch.
Oh - also - your description of what happened in the Republican party in 2016 is not accurate. Trump very much represents the party and its supporters, and that's why he was the nominee. The Republican party is the problem. Trump is just the face.
41
@Tim, I think Ross had his tongue planted in his cheek when he said "the Democrats took my advice."
Second, Trump was NOT the face of the Republican party when he was nominated. He was in SOME ways, but, for instance, he promised to embark on an infrastructure program that sounded suspiciously like a Democrat's program, and scared them to death. They were afraid he was a true populist! But when he signed the tax cuts for millionaires bill, they finally realized he was on their side and gave a big sigh of relief
1
@Tim Your comment is far more true to 2016's reality, thanks!
In other words, I hope Ross Douthat doesn't break his arm patting himself on the back, as usual.
The Coronavirus Pandemic may be another reason why there is a consolidation of support for Biden.
This is becoming a major global crisis of both health and economics.
The Trump Administration is completely incompetent – things will continue to get worse.
But could Sanders really deal with a crisis of world financial markets?
We need an American leader who can work together with our allies and trading partners on this.
Biden, as a boring but reliable unifier, is looking better and better.
24
@AKJersey
It is terrifying to me that your concern with a potential pandemic is pandering to the needs of the financial sector. What is your 401k worth to you if you are dead?
I agree with what a lot of the author has to say, but as Bernie supporter, I will never forgive the Democratic Establishment for what they did this past weekend. The establishment (rumor has it Obama personally persuaded viable candidates like Buttigieg) twisted arms to get all the moderates out of the race, while at the same time keeping Warren in to siphon off votes from Bernie. I get it, it was a nice move, but one I will never forgive, and I'm pretty sure a large segment of Bernie supports will forgive. The question is, how many of of will either stay home in November, or vote trump... I am leaning for voting trump just to burn everything down.
7
@Robert I assume you feel the same about Warren. I expect if there were and outside discussions it would have been Nancy Pelosi. But I expect the reality is that Pete being an honorable and I analytical person decided all by himself. The numbers were against him. Not every sees Sanders as the second coming. He and his supporters were the spoilers in the Clinton campaign. You need to own up and vote - unlike the last time when you delivered Trump.
25
@Robert Regardless, from now on it is fair and square, a two man race. (whether Sen. Warren chooses to stay in or not, she's not going to be any more relevant than Tulsi Gabbard at this point - and I'm sorry to say this, being her constituent). It's Biden vs. Sanders for the remainder of the primary. A binary choice - what do you want? A revolution and gambling on everything you've got, or a return to normalcy and steady incremental improvements? Let the voters decide - than vote for the nominee, please?
9
@Robert
Sorry dude, all of the data show that Bernie just doesn’t have the votes. It’s not some vast conspiracy, it’s fundamental to democracy. Petulant children threaten to burn everything down when they don’t get their way. Don’t be that guy, we have one as president now and it ain’t working.
124
I am not so naive as to think that the politicians I agree with are not real politicians. They are. Which means that they have inflated egos, ambition, pragmatism and a thirst for power. But there is something to be said for the difference between the collective superego of those to the left of the political spectrum. Selfishness is not celebrated. Service is. And any left-wing politician who nakedly abandons this ethos will be made to pay the price. I don't think it is necessary to point out the contrast with the other side.
6
True progressives don't need to mourn if Biden wins the nomination. Contrary to what Sanders and Trump have succeeded in convincing a vast portion of America, a president's individual ideas and opinions are not supposed to be the primary driver of national policy. The president must lead, but s/he must also represent us--which first requires respecting us enough to listen to us. A Sanders vs. Trump smackdown would force us to choose between two candidates who would use the office to enact their pre-set agendas. The fact that one is extremely well-intended and the other narcissistic and corrupt doesn't change this core miscasting of the presidential role.
What Sanders and Trump both lack is an essential component of wise government: the humility implied in the spirit of real public service. Biden, whatever else he may be, has proven himself a true public servant. He will represent the people by listening to us. He will assemble a team of competent, experienced folks who can restore our imperiled democracy, and he will listen to them, too. His positions on issues will change as facts accrue, and he will adjust to the situation on the ground as needed--rather than stick to sweeping generalizations and grand theories that may not always apply (looking at you, Bernie!).
We, the people, want change. Biden knows this. He will bring it to us as best he can. This is reality-based, practical public service. We can embrace it not just with relief, but with hope.
64
@Coffey Thank you. Yes Biden is at minimum an outstanding American public servant. He will do as you say above, enabled also by emotional stability and maturity, not be to diminished by his Uncle Joe moments, which just underscore his humanity. My guess is a lot of talented Americans will want to serve under him.
30
@Coffey
Are you joking? You think avoiding the looming difficulties of a dangerous future by doubling down on the past will be a change? That's what we've been doing for decades.
The only change Biden will bring is a daily decline in mental capacity and judgment. Poor guy will need help navigating his way around the Oval Office.
6
@Coffey absolutely agree!
1
Or....as former Senator Al Franken said:
"Here's the thing you have to understand about Ted Cruz..... I like Ted Cruz more than most of my other colleagues like Ted Cruz.....and I hate Ted Cruz."
People seem to like Joe Biden; let's hope Joe Biden shows enough fire in the belly, coalition-building instincts and intestinal fortitude to fend off the dark Republican political arts and rally enough Americans and Electoral College votes to send Team Trump and Monarch McConnell packing on November 3 2020.
This country has seen enough of the the GOP's 0.1% Welfare Queens to last for a awhile.
Vote Blue No Matter Who.
397
@Socrates Well said, Socrates. Thank you for your many insightful comments in the Times, I'm always eager to read your take.
8
@Socrates
Or, as Fred Sanford would say, "This is the big one".
Anything that isn't a vote for the Democratic candidate, no matter who, is a vote for Trump.
We need to make America great again: Dump Trump.
9
@Socrates
"intestinal fortitude"? That alone made my day, penned by
you, our wordsmith par excellence.
3
Now Biden and Sanders need to consolidate and Unite The Party.
14
@Michigan Girl
Should seem like a no-brainer, right? Biden wins the nomination, picks a younger VP who's to the left of him on issues, maybe an African-American woman - and he should just win hands down, when Trump's approval ratings are steadily in the lower 40s, and the disapproval - in the 50s, right??
If only it were that simple... So many Democrats (especially the one on the left - sorry) would rather continue to squabble, believe in manufactured conspiracy theories about the nomination having been stolen from them, end up supporting spoiler third party campaigns... The list goes on and on. Sigh. Lord help us all.
10
@Michigan Girl Bernie needs to drop out now and throw his full weight behind Biden, and tell his followers that this time around, they MUST get behind the democratic nominee no matter what, or else they'll boycott the election and trump will win re-election.
8
@Stephanie
You know, if you just did something to actually represent those voters, you'd get their votes! They don't owe you anymore than you owe them. And you are obviously unwilling to compromise to support Sanders, so why should his supporters compromise to support biden?
These are sharp and incisive points about why Democrats rallied around Biden when the never Trump crowd didn’t. But they are small potatoes compared to the main reason: Trump himself. There was still room for many to hope in 2016 that Trump might grow a little, his handlers might put him on a leash, etc. We now know that was totally wrong. Many are sick and terrified of leadership by Personality Disorder. That’s a very powerful unifying force.
342
@Cal Prof
"Trump himself' was as reviled by Republicans in 2016 as he is by Democrats today. They knew who and what he was. But Republican candidates failed to coalesce around a single warrior to take it to the usurper. They stayed in the race too long, and with the Republican Party's rules of a primary winner taking all of the delegates, it became too late too quickly.
16
There is another difference.
The GOP philosophy is "Every man for himself"
The Democratic philosophy is "We are all in this together."
So the GOP is a party of people who share a common interest in promoting selfishness. They don't really care about each other. And are perfectly willing to accept the notion that some outsider , Trump, is the only one to fix things. (deification of the individual) As we saw in the recent Senate "trial" they have no core principles but are interested in power for each of them They are perfect apparatchiks then for someone able to use this tendency to think only of your own selfish interests
The Democratic party is a party of people who share a common interest in promoting the well being of all. Which means we care about each other, have worked together for decades to achieve a goal.So that any outsider, like Bernie Sanders who tells us that he alone knows best is not going to be welcomed. (He is by the way, a poor example, in his behavior, of socialism) And of course it follows from all of this that real Democrats will not fall in line behind a cult leader.
29
"South Carolina was perfect for [Biden's] anti-Sanders consolidation. Ted Cruz won a similarly thumping victory over Trump in Wisconsin in 2016, but it came much later, after Trump had built a big lead and there was no chance of denying him a plurality of delegate support. Give Cruz that kind of victory earlier, and maybe there would have been a rush to his side."
The flip side of this is the question of whether we would be where we are now if the South Carolina primary were held in April.
3
@John And lets not forget, yeah Biden won South Carolina, but he has absolutely no chance to win South Carolina in November. Yeah, great he consolidated his chance for the nomination, and he will probably win the nomination. But the odds are still with the incumbent winning in November... and even if Biden somehow wins, will the working poor (unless your rich, that is the vast majority of the population) life change much with Biden in office? Will the United States get health care like the rest of Western civilization has? NO, thats the answer. Buy trying to play it safe, we as a people have just lost.
3
@Robert Maybe our next president (Biden?)-will have the support of Congress to get improvements in health care done-not by repeal and replace-by Republicans or Sanders-but by Democrats and Republicans. The Congressional elections will be determinate in whether or not that will be possible. We should have learned that we do not want a 'king' ("only I can do it") from the left or the right.
3
@Robert If Biden can enact M4A who want it for the 30-40M who have none now, it will be a huge benefit to society. That would uplift more people than the Civil Rights Act of 1964: 30-40M vs. 19M. Perspective is everything.
You have to acknowledge, that it wasn't as much of "the Democrats took my advice", as ONE impossibly wise and responsible democrat having taken it. Following that advice for so seemingly obvious (sorry, Mr. Douthat - not trying to diminish your wisdom), yet completely unexpected, because politicians just don't do this kind of thing, normally. Seeing the news about Pete Buttigieg exiting the campaign and endorsing Biden, all I could think was "wow, there was one grownup on that huge debate stage after all; he just happens to be the one who looks like he's about 17". It was Mr. Buttigieg who set in motion the chain of events described in the article. I may be missing some political history, but I feel like most politicians in a situation like this choose to keep dragging on, for as long as they can keep winning some delegates. For whatever reason - spite, ego, believing that more delegates would translate into more bargaining power later on... I find it hard to imagine that it could have possibly happened without him.
I don't know if he'll get a cabinet post out of it, or makes his name as a senator, or what have you. But we will hear about Mayor Pete again.
52
I am not particularly keen on Biden as the Democratic candidate, but somehow I feel relief that we are apparently not going to drag out much longer the primary process with way too many candidates. If it comes down to a head-to-head between Biden and Sanders, I'm pretty sure Biden will win.
That does not mean Sanders has lost. His campaigns have changed the conversation and brought the Democratic party back toward the center. That's a better place to be than hovering on the right where the Republicans used to hang out.
The Democrats will not have a celebrity candidate and that's also a good thing. Biden is well-known, but he's more comfortable than exciting. Another good thing.
29
@Betsy S: What a weird idea, that an uninciting nominee will beat Trump. How shall that generate the necessary turnout? The Trumpsters will be out there in force, they won't be nicer or less determined just because of Biden. Guys who smeared Obama as a socialist don't believe in fairplay or decency, only in winning. If the Dems can't counter that force, with energized activists, they'll lose.
3
@Gray Goods I would say there is energized support for Biden. AAs for instance or don’t they count.
Biden should not take progressive voters for granted. Some voters on the left are quite angry right now about the way the party moved systematically against Sanders. Some may still be angry enough come November that they will sit out the election. That would be a disastrous outcome.
Putting Warren on the ticket as VP would be a smart move. It would help the left wing of the party get fully behind a centrist nominee.
16
@Rob
Doh, it's not just that "some ... are quite angry" - there is a full blown outburst of paranoid hysteria going on among his more fanatical supporters, with crazy conspiracy theories about the evil DNC stealing the vote of the people, and clearly manufactured fake news from obvious propaganda accounts circulating on social media... In other words, a replay of 2016.
Sigh. We've had 3 years to digest what happened then and learn our lessons. We know for the fact that Trump got elected in part because they managed to convince a sizeable portion of Sanders' supporters that the nomination had been stolen from them... Anyone who refuses to learn and is willing to repeat the same mistake twice does deserve what's coming to them... And to the rest of us, unfortunately.
21
If Warren were 5 years younger I might agree but I’m a little uneasy having 2 septuagenarians in the highest offices.
If Biden is going to choose a woman VP it should be either Klobuchar or Harris. Either one has strong pluses in her favour. Abrams I don’t feel would be the right choice now - while I am certain she has an extremely bright political future and look forward to seeing her in high office, I think she needs a bit more experience and seasoning.
5
@Rob BINGO
I am LIVID at the shenanigans that took place this past weekend, and I will never vote for Biden because of it. Now I guess the choice I have is to either sit out, or vote for trump to teach the democratic establishment a lesson on taking our vote for granted. I know I am not alone as a Bernie supporter.
2
Senator Sanders keeps promising that a massive cavalcade of new, young leftist voters will materialize to send him and his so called revolution to the White House.
It hasn't happened. It didn't happen last night.
We Democrats will NOT cross our fingers and hope that on November 3rd, these woke under 35 year olds will, miraculously, for the very first time, break out of their abysmal low turn out patterns and march to the polls. There has never been any proof of that and Sanders couldn't even make it happen yesterday on what was arguably, so far, the biggest night of his political life! His turnout was DOWN over 2016!
Furthermore, Biden's comparison to Hillary Clinton in 2016 is wrong from more than a few angles. Hillary had to deal with James Comey's last minute investigation bombshell. She was seen as anointed and entitled by large numbers of Democratic voters. She faced Russian interference without any counter plan (we now know full well what Putin is up to), and she was an unusually divisive figure (primarily due to 30 years of right wing propaganda). Large swaths of the voting public just found her plain unlikable.
Then she chose a decent, but uninspiring Vice Presidential candidate. (Note to Biden - Stacy Abrahams could add some great pizazz.)
Plus, enough voters were willing to take a chance on something different, i.e., Donald Trump, in 2016. That something "different" is now old news, and, for must of us, it is positively horrifying.
I'm feeling MUCH better.
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I am an extremely consistent 27 year old voter who has voted in every major election since I was 18. And because I care about outcomes and results I will be voting for Biden in April.
Reliable voters know Biden is our ticket to taking back the Supreme Court and potentially even the Senate.
For what it’s worth, college-educated voters broke decisively for Biden last night.
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@Will.
You think there won't be anything akin to Comey's bombshell in Biden's case? Trump is digging for dirt high and low and in the Ukraine. You can bet he will find some tidbits for Barr to investigate and drop last-minute revelations about.
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@Will.
>It hasn't happened. It didn't happen last night.
Bingo. It does not matter how passionate you are, if you don't show up when it matters, you won't be taken seriously
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Great column. I would add, that along with the role of Joe Biden's character in this drama, there is also the role of the character of Jim Clyburn. It seems to me that Representative Clyburn's decades of honorable service put him in position to give Biden a boost he desperately needed.
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The Empire Struck Back.
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@The Poet McTeagle
Your comment is the best of all! Thanks.
@The Poet McTeagle That happened in 2016. We're still picking up the pieces right now.
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@The Poet McTeagle
Followed immediately by The Return of the Self-Sabotaging Left.
The Biden adventure just couldn't compete with the insanity we saw with Trump. There is nothing here that rings true. The over the top gaslighting on MSNBC makes MSNBC unwatchable. Biden and his baggage makes his candidacy too ridiculous.
I am a Canadian. Gaslighting makes me ill but not crazy. What's next the Spanish Inquisition. While we don't know what to expect from Trump this evening we knew Biden Super Tuesday's miracle comeback three months ago.
We knew when Harris and Booker went out early we would get to Bernie and Biden in the end.
We've gone from Trump 's re-election without hanky and panky improbable to any result in November being possible.
What kind of bizzarro world are we supposed to be in when we go from Harris, Booker and Warren to Bernie and Biden.
Is it Bathetic farce or good old fashion gaslighting.
I am just trying to figure out if there is a motive or whether Samuel Beckett is back from the dead.
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The establishment the would rather have Trump than Bernie and is doing anything to achieve that. Biden is in obvious cognitive decline yet the media won't report this - it is sad that he is being pushed.
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@steve
Er...Sanders has been in Washington for 30 years; his wife ran (very badly) a local university; they have three homes and are multi millionaires. Sanders is a fully paid up member of the establishment if anyone is so spare us the establishment baloney. On the cognitive front Biden seems much more in control of himself than the ranting, red faced Sanders who may have heart trouble he's keeping secret. He won't release his medical records despite promising to do so.
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@steve "He is being pushed" - you just cannot acknowledge that the Dear Leader could have possibly lost fair and square last night, can you? You just assume that it was not because other primary voters came out and voted for somebody else - it must have been because somebody "pushed" the "wrong" candidate, because the evil "establishment" conspired to steal the choice of the people... How about this crazy conspiracy - Bernie Sanders' supporters are clearly a minority. A very vocal, and very passionate minority - but nevertheless. No, too preposterous an idea?
Unless I'm missing something, even if you add Bernie's share of the vote AND every vote cast for Warren, this "left-wing vote" does not add up to 50% in any single state of all the Super Tuesday contests from last night.
Enough with the crazy conspiracies, please. We don't know what's going to happen in 2020 - nobody does. But we DO know what happened in 2016. We know for the fact that one of the reasons Trump got elected was that they convinced Sanders' supporters that the nomination had been stolen from them, and made enough of them sabotage Hillary Clinton's campaign... It IS OK to be a gullible fool, once. Please don't go there the second time around.
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@Leonid Andreev my eyebrows were raised when a group of Black lives Matter folks broke up Amy's Speech in her state and she dropped out poste haste.
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Since the voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada had a unique opportunity to examine Joe Biden closely for many months, The Big Question is "What Did Those Voters In The First 3 Caucus And Primary States Saw In Biden That Made Them Reject Him?". The earlier we find answer to the question, the better we can make decisions before it's too late in November 2020. But I have to say that Biden's team did a great job by both defining Bernie Sanders as unelectable and defining Biden as Mr. Electable. On the other hand, Sanders' team did a very bad job in terms of taking time to define Sanders as Electable based on the good polls that shows that Sanders consistently defeat Trump in Matchups and defining Biden as unelectable based on Biden's decades of bad policies and decisions. Instead,Sanders' team only focus on policies alone. Though Many People Prefer Sanders' Policies, They Also Do Care About Electability. Sanders' team have to find a way to talk about both policies or issues that people care about and electability
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@Ukosi But I don't know understand how Biden is considered "electable." It took him three elections to win his first state and endorsements from the entire party to split Super Tuesday. The DNC also thought centrists Gore, Kerry, and Hillary were electable too. I don't think Biden beats Trump. Trump will ruin him in a debate. Am I the only one watching them? Joe can't even string a sentence together--and he has baggage: sexism, creepiness, dubious claims, Ukraine and is out of touch with the youth. I'm Bernie first but I'd prefer anyone to Joe.
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Yes, of course. The articulate rhetorician, Donald Trump, will shred Biden in a debate.
Biden is my least favorite Dem candidate, but he'll get my vote in the primaries if he picks a female running mate.
Given Biden's (or Bernie's) age, either one of them would likely be a one-term president, so who will they choose to carry the torch in 2024? Incumbency might be the best chance to elect America's first woman president.
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It would be a mis-step of epic proportions to not choose a woman as his running-mate for many obvious reasons, not to mention the number of solid choices available. The speculation is rampant on who it might be. I think Klobuchar, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Warren. I believe Warren would be a stronger campaigner because she’s better at deflecting Trump’s poison.
"But instead, in a whirlwind few days, the Democrats took my advice, and it worked."
It's all about you, isn't it Ross? Good Grief.
For the record, the process is not over. Last I looked, no one had 1991 delegates. Not even close.
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@Concernicus This process is not "not even close" to over -- the writing is on the wall. Demographics are stacked highly in Biden's favor in future states. Whatever inclination moderates might have to opt for Bernie will be consumed by the logic of beating Trump with less risky strategies. Sanders bet his candidacy on the wishful promise of a young voter surge unprecedented in the annals of democracy. Thank everything for southern black voters not wanting to risk four more years of Trump on that.
The only thing Bernie could do to change this calculus would be to acclimate to the facts of life: coalition-building runs on compromise and unseating Trump runs through political moderates. Of course his base is so politically uncompromising that his well-spring of support would disintegrate if he took the necessary step of moderating on any of his signature positions, so he's doomed.
Biden supporters still have to keep their foot on the gas and their hand on the wheel, but the primary race is in fact over.
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Open question as to whether Biden can keep his “hand on the wheel and foot on the gas”
I think you missed the fact that Ross has a sense of humor...
I wonder if, in addition to Biden & his staff acceding to the wisdom of Mr. Douthat, they had also acceded to the wisdom of Tom Friedman's "team of rivals" column.
Surely Mr. Biden must have offered _something_ of value to Ms. Klobuchar and Messrs. Buttigieg & O'Rourke in exchange for their full-throated endorsements.
If Biden wins the nomination we'll find out in July when he names a vice-presidential running mate. (Perhaps sooner if some exigency dictates naming a VP before the convention.) And if the Biden-tbn ticket wins in November, we'll find out more with Cabinet appointments in January.
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@A. Reader You might also look at the actual numbers of voters in each primary state for each candidate. That could help you to realize why some of the candidates did not 'win'.
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@A. Reader
Just can't take it can you?
It is always given as faint praise that people “like” Biden, that he is decent and can work with others. We used to call that leadership.
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That's true, it's said dismissively. Yet, Biden's qualities are necessary ones to have in a politician.
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Improving the Affordable Care Act is a much more laudable goal than Medicare for All--and it's realistic, too.
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@Randeep Chauhan
And you know that how?
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@Randeep Chauhan until the Supreme Court strikes down ACA
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In the 2016 GOP primary, Trump got nominated because grievance won out over gratitude (and must admit that if I were a 2016 Republican in the wake of the Bush presidency, I'd have some trouble feeling grateful to the party as well).
If Biden gets nominated in the 2020 democratic primary, it will be because gratitude for the party's adequate track record of deliverables is winning out over grievance against what has not been delivered.
Here's hoping that Biden continues on to the general election with a by pushing a message of positivity against Trump's negativity, a message of unity against Trump's divisiveness, and a message of gratitude over Trump's message of grievance.
After all, America has never stopped being great.
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I think your analysis is spot-on. But Ross should not have sidestepped the Buttigieg and Klobuchar factors so quickly, as they were the crucial catalysts. A deeper analysis of those two candidates would have shown that a key difference between the Democrats in 2020 and the Republicans in 2016 were the core decency of the candidates. Unlike Cruz and Rubio, Buttigieg and Klobuchar (and eventually Bloomberg) put country AND party ahead of their own egos and ambitions and refused to give into personal delusions and electoral fantasies. There was a strong moral element to their self-restraint that one did not see in the Republican candidates. And the fact that Cruz and Rubio now lick Trump's boots only confirms the idea that they had, and continue to have, no true moral compass.
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@Al Orin
We shall see the truth in the end what their motivations were. I am cynical enough to believe that they are politicians first and each had his or her hand out.
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@Steve
To resurrect a cliché of the aughts: that's not a bug, it's a feature.
It isn't that the Democratic electorate suddenly became excited by Joe Biden. It's that we became excited by the team spirit. We are hoping for that team of rivals. We loved Tom Friedman's recent dream-team column. If we supported Pete or Amy, our disappointment at their dropping out of the race is assuaged by the hope that their honorable, conciliatory gesture does indeed mean that they will be included in a Biden administration.
There's nothing sinister or shady about that—that's what good politics is. It's building a good team to get things done. Our winner will not be carving up the spoils à la Trump and exiling every skilled or talented person who doesn't genuflect. The team gathered by a President Biden should include the ambitious public servants we saw prove themselves in this very long contest—of course they may want to keep themselves in the public eye and show us why they would still make a strong nominee in future. How is that not a good thing? Especially compared to the sleazes Trump surrounds himself with who have no ambitions of leadership … or don't even know what that is.
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Vote blue, no matter who...
This was manifest at the beginning of the elections season and is as applicable now. Pragmatism is now a virtue.
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I think the lesson Democrats learned is that crushing the outsider to maintain the status quo is what is most important. They probably succeeded this time. But what happens if Biden loses? The left wing of the party will be blamed while more voters become frustrated and radicalized. This may be a case of delay over change. Even if Democrats win if Republicans still control the Senate and obstruct a Biden presidency the same way it treated Obama. And GOP voters expect and will accept nothing less.
Conservatives feel their fight is existential and the have forsaken their morals to achieve their ends. I hear it in the rhetoric of everyone from Franklin Graham to Bill Barr.
Do you really think a reasonable, moderate candidate will change that? I voted for change in 2008 and that didn't pan out. I voted for Clinton in 2016 and that failed. What are we prepared to do? When do we take off the gloves and fight back?
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@Chris Its time to burn the forest down and let new growth take over. A Biden win does nothing for the working poor, which is 90% of the country, as Biden is in bed with the Billionaires too. Status quo will continue with a Biden Presidency. Right now, maybe the best thing long term is a trump reelection and the forest burning to the ground.
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@Robert You think that 90% of the country are the working poor? By all means vote for Trump,
as you both seem to have a similar fantastical relationship to facts.
@Robert So this is an example of the 'hopes and dreams' of the losers?
Let me give you perspective from a 2016 Sanders DNC delegate who now supports Joe Biden.
In 2016, many Democrats, while not hating Hillary Clinton, had no enthusiasm for her. Bernie offered a genuineness that Hillary simply lacked. There was a sense that Bernie's ideas were pie-in-the-sky but that thinking big drew more support than what seemed to be calculation rather than principle on Clinton's part. Plus, there was a sense that the Bill Clinton years--after a hopeful 1992 campaign--often defaulted to small-bore ideas (e.g. student uniforms and V-chips) rather than a substantive agenda to improve working people's lives.
Then there was the 2016 convention. The national committee obviously favored Clinton. But as significantly, during the convention itself, her campaign often acted like sore winners, making the first night--which in a close contest usually allows focus on the runner-up--all about her victory; rubbing Bernie's supporters noses in their loss.
Don't get me wrong--there were a number of Bernie-or-Bust (though definitely a minority of his delegates) who acted like petulant children, refusing to accept the outcome and failing to focus on the big picture once the primary was over: the absolute necessity of defeating Trump.
Joe Biden simply doesn't carry this baggage. There is a huge well of affection for him among Democrats, even those who had supported other candidates. People simply like him and his decency.
That will serve him well going forward.
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@pczisny Biden has is own baggage and his stubborn insistance on "nothing will change" doesn't bode well for the reconciliation process at the nomination. Say what you will about Hillary, she did move left, with at least somewhat believable compromises. Biden, on the other hand, talks a lot about his Obama days, but offers neither hope nor change. "Not Trump", as the sole selling point, won't be good enough to trigger the necessary turnout.
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@pczisny Your probably right. But what happens when Biden loses to the incumbency of trump? Does Biden inspire anyone? He is nothing but status quo.
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@Robert
He seems to inspire African-Americans.
The status quo is horror in the executive branch.
Defeating Trump is itself a great inspiration.
8
Bernie stands for beautiful ideals but he is far too angry, alienating, and divisive for me to support his calls for a “revolution” (which has yet to arrive, given the drop in turnout from 2016 to 2020 in states Bernie has won). We have been yelled at enough by trump and don’t need more anger and conspiracy theories in our politics.
Biden makes me feel okay about the future of this country and much less afraid. I took a giant breath of relief last night when Texas was called for Biden, because I knew that our country would be in good hands once again after the trauma of the last four years.
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There is another factor - Southern Black voters are one of the most pragmatic and disciplined voting blocks in the country. Given what many of them have suffered in living memory, and the fact that they live in states where the Democratic party rarely wins state elections, the primaries are one of their most important political tools. Although Sanders has an admirable personal record of civil rights activism, his criticism of the Obama administration also rings pretty hollow in a group that appreciates what he had to overcome (both racially and politically) very viscerally.
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@charles But what does it say for the Democratic party that these Southern states get to decide who the Democratic nominee is, but can't even win those states in a General Election? Great, Biden won South Carolina, and changed the course of the nominee, IN A STATE HE CAN'T WIN IN NOVEMBER. ughhh
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@Robert
Yes, Black folks in the south have basically two sources of national power - senior members of the House, and their votes in the Democratic primary. And they use both very pragmatically, returning members of Congress very reliably so they can accumulate seniority, and voting with unusual cohesion in the primary.
Personally, I think it’s fair that these avenues of national power are available to them and I think they use it shrewdly. Their behavior forces people like Pelosi and Democratic candidates for President to seek their support and brings benefits for their communities even if their states are uncompetive.
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@Robert
We are electing a President to represent all Americans: Democrats, Republicans, and others. Because of the Electoral College, very few states actually matter in November, but that doesn't mean that the rest of us shouldn't count before that.
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Now, if Elizabeth Warren quits and endorses Bernie, then Biden needs to prove himself. Being right-enough, banking on Obama times, and have democratic party establishment behind him will not be enough.
And who knows what Trump has up his sleeve for him.
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@Shreerang If Warren were to endorse Sanders now, then she, too, would have to become an Independent.
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When Pete Buttigieg dropped out my instant reaction was he was doing the smart and mature thing -- exactly what we would have expected of a candidate who's shown himself to be exceedingly smart and mature. Pete led the way.
Amy Klobuchar wasn't far behind. In pulling off this consolidation, Democrats have show themselves to be the party of grown-ups -- not "of" in the sense of representing grown-ups, but of being grown up. Michael Bloomberg likewise understands the situation, and is smart and principled enough to know what needs to be done.
What a refreshing contrast from those elephants over yonder, who both botched their nominating process and also can't govern. It's been said, and truly, that by now all the adults have departed the Trump administration. The difference between the parties is immense.
Easier to say now than a week ago, to be sure. But Democrats have shown their mettle and resolve, their intelligence and their selflessness. The Democratic electorate responded. This bodes well for what lies ahead.
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@Mike there never were adults in the tRump maladministration.
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@Mike Yes I'm sure they dropped out under their own accord in order to "do the right thing........" Yea right!!!!This was done in concert coordinated by the DNC to undermine Bernie who they view as a legitimate threat to the establishment. Who knows what went on behind closed doors or what was promised to Pete and Amy but this whole thing stinks to high heaven. To think that these two had a spontaneous moment of clarity and did the magnanimous thing is pretty shortsighted.
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@Mike My sentiments exactly! To suggest that Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg stopped their campaigns and threw their support to Biden for reasons of personal advancement,as some have suggested, is naive. Buttigieg is a Rhodes scholar! Klobuchar is a three-term (?) U.S. Senator! And Bloomberg has his philanthropy. Their futures are set. They simply saw how they could contribute to achieving what we as a nation sorely need -- election of a good man, someone we can expect to embody the best qualities of America.
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In your photo those people surrounding Biden look so much like Trump supporters at his rally, without the red hats. They also have that slightly naive and hopeful look.
Seeing Biden step up seems somehow right. But I'm thinking of Bernie and his young followers and his shouting urgency to do something about the serious problems we have, and how if Biden is elected, with my vote, whether the moment of making huge change now will be lost. And then what is our future?
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@paulyyams Agree, but the problem with the youth is that they don't seem to actually show up to vote all that much, while white suburban moms do. I too crave the leftward shove a Bernie presidency (I think he could beat Trump, too) would bring, and will be voting for him in Oregon's primary next month. But, it's hard to be idealistic in the face of such consistent data.
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@paulyyams You've stated the problem: nice Joe vs. horrible Trump, but when the head-to-head begins between Biden and Trumpo, that's when the Democrats will need energy and smarts on the ticket if Democrats really do want huge change. Warren or someone else with those characteristics could help a lot. Otherwise I fear Trump, with his viciousness and lack of any decency or respect for the nation at all, will have Biden for lunch, as the saying goes.
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@paulyyams Are we looking at the same photo? i see happy, reasonable reasonable people, not the frothing lunatics who support trump.
1
I don't think that the Democrats closed ranks so much as that the establishment, which really doesn't care if it's Trump or Biden but does care if it's Bernie, stepped in. Anyone familiar with the teachings of Catholicism would know that it's Bernie, not the ostensibly Catholic Biden, who is faithful with church doctrine about fair labor practices, environmental stewardship, and economic equality.
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@Justice
My Democratic friends and I in Virginia care a lot about whether it's Trump or Biden. And it appears the markets do too.
Anyone who's familiar with the teachings of Catholicism -- and the history of its Church -- would know that bad actors can irreparably harm the work of the good (not the work of the perfect).
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@chris If you think that the market response indicates where virtue lies, then that really tells me all I need to know.
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@Justice So many of Trump's administration claim to be staunch 'Catholics'- it is difficult to believe that the "Catholic' church today is the same one I was raised in.
2
Joe is not my candidate but seeing people come together has been very uplifting. Of course I will support him. I like Bernie but if he or his supporters start insulting and screaming against other democrats, it won't help the cause.
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I don't mind if you give yourself credit for this, Ross. It was good advice. I'm hoping that Warren will end up supporting Biden because I think Biden is the big hope for beating trump. Decency vs. Trump.
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@J.Sutton Agree. And I'd go further to include Warren as a potential VP nominee.
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@C.L.S. Interesting. I was thinking of Amy Klobuchar as VP nominee, probably because I was taking the "advice" offered by Tom Friedman: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/opinion/democratic-primary-candidates.html
1
What are the odds that the Democrats select the only candidate that could lose to Trump TWO elections in a row?
Nate Silver?
24
@AmarilloMike
A lot less after last night, thank God!
@AmarilloMike
If you try real hard 100%.
1
@AmarilloMike
The odds are almost incomprehensible. Until you consider it is the democrats.
I am not a fan of Biden---at all. But IF he wins the nomination, still a huge IF, and IF he does not do something remarkably stupid like selecting the totally unqualified Stacy Abrams to be his potential running mate, he will get my vote.
Nevertheless, I cannot help but feel that we are heading full steam into a repeat of 2016. Selecting a more of the same, status quo, corporate candidate that is uninspiring to millions of voters. Voters who will "vote" by staying at home and we end up with another Trump victory.
1
Despite his debate stumbles, Biden never alienated anyone, either among the other candidates or the Democratic electorate. He presented himself for what he authentically is - a stabilizer, a listener-to-all-sides, a man of tremendous experience throughout not just Washington but the world, and most of all an upbeat charmer. He was - and is - the anti-Trump par excellence. Bernie's uncompromising positions and rabid manner may appeal to the young, but they are a huge turnoff to older (older than 35) voters, who far outnumber the youngsters. When the others dropped out and Warren lost her early momentum, the choice for Democrats became stark. Biden was the safer one. And I think this remarkable comeback will also help him. America loves a comeback story.
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@Charles Michener Well said!
And, what's more, all of Joe's deficiencies (his—let's face it—truly cringeworthy performances in those highly choreographed TV debates) will be baked into people's expectations. All he'll have to do vs. Trump is be himself—a decent fellow.
I remember that, prior to DJT, it was held as self-evident that upbeat positivity in a candidate would always win out over doom-mongering. (Remember "Morning in America"...?) Trump somehow subverted this....and Uncle Joe is the antidote we need to neutralize that poison. Preposterous as it may seem to some, this 77-year-old white male is a man—a person—ideally suited to the moment.
As President, he can "preside", and bring in others (I hope a team of rivals to include Warren, Bloomberg, Corey Booker, Kamala Harris etc.) to do the heavy lifting. Let Joe kiss the babies, he's good at that. Bless him!
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@Bruno Kavanagh If Joe can help us get the Senate back and keep the House ... sky's the limit of what can be done. For one, I hope we can pack the Supreme Court and bring it to the modern ages.
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@Bruno Kavanagh We should also be aware that when we see Biden say some minor gaffe-never anything vindictive or vulgar (like the president) that clip has been selected from a longer speech/conversation that may have been-not so 'interesting'? Of course it's fun when it's done to Trump but let's wait and see with Biden.
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Thank you for the concise summary of the key factors in an unprecedented turn around of a floundering presidential campaign including the comparison to the GOP response to 2016 and Trump. Not stated is the role played by the extreme Democratic antipathy to not only Trump, but McConnell driving a search for someone who can beat Trump and lift down ballot candidates.
22
In the realm of unconventional alliances, I predict that Sen. Warren will endorse Biden soon.
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@The Judge Of all the Warren supporters I know--most of my friends--most are planning to vote Biden with a couple of Warren holdouts. This would leave those Warren voters who have Sanders as a second choice free to choose him. Some of us had been hoping for a nevertheless she persisted nomination.
What people want to see the most now are team players. Probably not Sanders, I never say never.
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@Kathleen
Warren was my first choice, as of now I'm with Sanders -- his policies are much more progressive than Biden's. Biden could sway me though, if he picks a female running mate. Amy Klobuchar or Kamala Harris would do nicely, Stacey Abrams would be my first choice but she would pair better with Sanders. Given the age of both Biden and Sanders, their VP choice will really be important this time.
24
@Nikki Kamala Harris ran a terrible campaign, so picking her would be a huge mistake. As for Sanders - you can call his policies "progressive." I call them "unpopular and impossible to implement." I'm old enough to remember Harry & Louise. If Sanders is the nominee, expect Harry & Louise on steroids. I seriously doubt that Sanders can win.
5