How South Carolina Could Change the Democratic Race

Feb 29, 2020 · 284 comments
Bhaskar (Dallas, TX)
South Carolina, you can do this. Don't encourage him and prolong his misery. Biden must retreat to a peaceful retirement. With what he has done to his face, you won't know if he is happy or sad whether he wins or loses anyway. Just end his campaign today and give him a little going-away retirement gift. Join the mainstream and feel the Bern!
malkus (Madison, WI)
I am proud of my home stater, Prof Elizabeth Warren. She is a fabulous campaigner with good ideas, but she should visit her conscience drop out and throw her support to Biden.
Gary Valan (Oakland, CA)
Good for Joe Biden, he needed at least one big victory and he should enjoy it. However from what I read he has a virtually zero ground game in California and I don't know about Texas and the other Super Tuesday states. And there's no Clyburn to back him in California. I wonder how he'll do here. I already voted and its not for Biden.
John (Santa Cruz)
Nonsense. South Carolina is one of those states (along with MS, AL, etc.) that will NEVER vote for a Democrat in a general election. Not in a million years. Winning a primary there means absolutely nothing. This spin is going nowhere.
Mike (Keyport, NJ)
What's more important in voting for a president than determining which of the candidates can follow some unwritten rules that some random church decides to implement? Who cares about improving your life socially or economically when this is much more important benchmark?
Rapaki (US)
Taking a 30,000 ft view, its possible to look at the 'underdog VP wins SC' as a brilliant strategy, designed to both give America an experienced, humane president, and cement Black Americans as the sane and powerful base of the Democratic Party. Bernie relies on the youth vote, (and small-dollar donations from foreign oligarchs). Newsflash: young Americans don't vote in huge numbers, and haven't done so for decades.
Todd Bollinger (Charleston)
You're the base of the Democratic Party, huh? Well, I guess we'll see. That's what a primary is all about.
Terry Garrett (Laguna Vista, Texas)
It won't change the outcome in the race. Biden is yesterday's news.
Richard Ralph (Birmingham, AL)
It's an absolute scam that the white states of Iowa and New Hampshire get to vote in the Democratic primary the better part of a month earlier than the first state with any sizable black population. Joe Biden and black voters got ripped off... with a different calendar, Biden could already be running away with the nomination.
heinrichz (brooklyn)
I guess that would be mostly older blacks and they are not necessarily representative anymore among black voters overall.
Michael (Boston)
The NYT headline at 7:14pm reads “Joe Biden Wins South Carolina Primary” (with 0% of the vote counted). Seriously? I know exit polls point to the likely winner but you seem oh so very eager to have someone other than Sanders win a primary.
rupert (Utah)
Bernie or bust... Take the money out of politics AND THE OWNERSHIP OF U. S. News media... Monied elites are as bad in the democrat party as the republicans.. Annointed gold kings vs egalitarians?
Patrick (NYC)
@rupert As Mayor of Burlington, Bernie was making the same scurrilous accusations against the local TV station and newspaper, that they weren’t reporting on his socialist agenda fairly. So he grabbed some free access Cable and went to a playground to educate ten year old boys about socialism. Those clips are still around to watch Bernie in action with his thick Brooklyn accent. So maybe you were one of those pre-adolescent boys that met Uncle Bernie back then when he was lurking in playgrounds?
Mack (New England)
Any Democrat. Registered Democrat. Which means Never Sanders.
Ed (Virginia)
“Black voters know white voters better than white voters know themselves,” Mr. Richardson said. “So yeah, we’ll back Biden, because we know who white America will vote for in the general election in a way they may not tell a pollster or the media.” _____ I'm black and I find this statement to be really offensive. I don't vote based on what I think whites will do at the polls, but on my personal views. Some black people are really obsessed with white folks, it's unhealthy.
NKM (MD, USA)
Using South Carolina as an indicator of how the black community will vote in Detroit is about as absurd as using Iowa to determine how whites will vote in California. Stop treating black people as one monolith group. Regional differences matter.
John Smithson (California)
NKM, it is common to look at white votes in Iowa to estimate white votes in California.
Paul G (Portland OR)
Please tell me you won’t support a person who has contributed to oppression. Please tell me you won’t support Biden.
walkman (LA county)
Mr. Trump’s presidency to a house fire, and said black voters were better at recognizing the urgency. “If your house is on fire, you don’t bring the decorators in to redecorate while the flames are still raging,” Mr. Darby said. “You put out the fire first — and then you redecorate.” Great Analogy
ImagineMoments (USA)
I understand the reality that all human beings will have a tendency to share interests and outlooks with those most like themselves.... But I'm real sick and tired of speaking about "Black" voters as if there was some sort of law that every human being with a drop of African blood must give up his or her individuality when they enter the polling place. (And yes, I know we are all African blood - readers know what I mean.) The same holds for "Women" voters, "Millennial" voters, etc., etc. Yes, demographic TENDENCIES are very real, of course. I just wish we could have a better way of speaking about those tendencies.
georgiadem (Atlanta)
61 year old upper middle class white female here from Georgia. When my state gets to vote I will vote for the candidate who is doing the best AGAINST Sanders. I have had my fill of his rule changing and whining, and his supporters who do the same. It is a fact that more people disagree with him than agree with him. The field of candidates running against him vote tally is far higher than his. When never Sanders voters consolidate to the other one left in the race, he loses, again.
David (California)
Sanders represents Vermont, actually the very whitest State in the union. People of color in every State would prefer not to support Sanders, especially given is total wipe out in South Caroline. Sanders in doing very poorly In early reporting from South Carolina, while Biden is getting more than 70% of the vote.
sthomas1957 (Salt Lake City, UT)
@David. That's why Sanders did so well in Nevada?
David (California)
@sthomas1957 Nevada has !% of the American population with extremely few Americans of African descent. Future primaries will show Sanders does not have the votes.
Andre (NYC)
As long as we continue to define our lives in terms of ethnicity we are doomed to never live the life we deserve. Enough with “tribal” or identity politics. Sad
observer (Ca)
Now that Biden has won in South Carolina, I have cast my vote for him in Ca. Biden is a good guy with a lot of administrative experience and the opposite of Trump who is a thug. Trump's party is disgusting and I have voted for Democrats across the board in the Ca primary. Trump's party needs to be removed at the root-from local and state government all the way to house,senate, federal government and judiciary. The GOP does not care for California and raised our taxes by many thousands by imposing the salt limit in 2017. Trump and GOP policies are a total disaster and failure. After they gave GOP billionaire donors a massive tax break in 2017, the stock market has crashed by 15 percent within a week and the economy may go into a recession. While Trump gave speeches about spending 2 trillion on defense and demonized science, the aircraft, ships. missiles and missile defenses have been no answer to coronavirus. Trump and the GOP almost dismantled affordable health care with no alternative solution,which would have caused a complete health crisis when coronavirus struck,had they succeeded.Trump and GOP policies have been destructive across the board and it is impossible to know where to start. The deficit has soared to 21-23 trillion.Trump and the GOP do not care. Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were responsible overall in their attitude and approach towards deficits.The white house has been in complete chaos since 2017.No president or his party had mismanaged the country so badly.
Maria (Garden City, NY)
Interesting the coronavirus has given people pause about Sanders. They’re thinking that in this time of anxiety and unknowns that could be life threatening, it’s best to stick with a calm, experienced “known”, it’s not the time for experiment, revolution and “Bern” ing it down.
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
Given that the Republicans are making no secret about their efforts to get their voters to vote for their preferred (i.e. weakest) Democratic candidate to face Trump (essentially Sanders at this point) in open and semi-open primaries in South Carolina, California, and elsewhere, it is entirely irresponsible to report election results without noting the fact that results may be skewed by crossover voting.
Patrick (NYC)
@Steve Fankuchen It would be pretty easy to do data checks in solid GOP districts to see if there is a significant ballot box stuffing underway in favor of Sanders at the behest of Trump at yesterday’s rally similar to what happened in NH. If that turns out to be the case, the DNC should throw out those votes as invalid plain and simple. There must be an end to open Democratic primaries and caucuses if the Democrats are going to survive AS A PARTY. Sanders won NH strictly because of this so called crossover voting by registered Republicans who were allowed to change to Democrat for the ten or twenty minutes it took them to vote for Sanders, then change back to Republicans on the way out of the polling station.
Pdxtran (Minneapolis)
@Steve Fankuchen : Sanders is a distant second so far, so perhaps the crossover voters thought that Biden was the weakest candidate.
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
A highly recommended comment states, "I will vote for the Democrat against Trump unless it's Bloomberg, or unless Bernie gets the most delegates and doesn't get the nomination." The Republicans cannot reelect Trump. Only the Democrats can do that and, with their ongoing circular firing squad, are quite effectively doing just that. Unlike Republicans, many Democrats, on a good day, no longer can see the forest for the trees, on a mediocre day are like trying to herd cats, and on a bad day are perfectly willing to sacrifice our country to four more years of Trump if they can't get their way. As to South Carolina, given that the Republicans are making no secret about their efforts to get their voters to vote for their preferred (i.e. weakest) Democratic candidate to face Trump (essentially Sanders at the moment) in open and semi-open primaries in South Carolina, California, and elsewhere, it is entirely irresponsible to report election results without noting the fact that results may be materially skewed by crossover voting.
Bob (Hudson Valley)
It looks like common sense is prevailing over populism in South Carolina. Hopefully this return to sound thinking rather than expressing anger at center-left Democrats who Bernie Sanders' most loyal supporters believe are controlled by their corporate masters and are only faking that they care about ordinary people will carry over to Super Tuesday. A big win for Amy Klobuchar over Sanders in Minnesota would be a welcome sign for people who want the Democrats to take the Senate and House. And it would also indicate that there could be a brokered convention where the Super Delegates could put an end to the Sanders bandwagon on the far left.
Patrick (NYC)
Second primary loss so far for Bernie, and the comments of his followers are sticking to the familiar script of 2016. ‘The black vote doesn’t matter’. ‘South Carolina and other Southern States don’t count in the general election’. But as Biden racks up delegates in those states and begins to consolidate a lead, we will again see those comments turn to ‘Bernie or Bust’ and ‘I am voting for Trump’. I predict we will begin to see them right after Super Tuesday. Oh, and I forgot, ‘It’s all rigged to rob Bernie of his rightful claim to the nomination’.
ADG (Brooklyn NY)
Only Biden and Bernie should stay in at this point. No one else has a chance and they need to graciously drop out for the good of the country.
Rob (SF)
If this base was so powerful, they would have voted out Graham and McConnell long ago. Regardless, the Biden strategy of hugging Obama worked in South Carolina. Will it hold? Stay tuned!
Linda McKim-Bell (Portland, Oregon)
I am sad that Biden is winning in South Carolina. They have short memories I guess. I distinctly remember how Biden actively promoted the War on Iraq and shut out dissenting voices from his committee. He voted for the war where a million Iraqis died, according to The Lancet and he wasted trillions of dollars of our tax money which could have provided our people with public goods. It is sad that he is rewarded with their votes and with all the support from the media. I do not want more of the same! If elected, how many wars will he start?
Pdxtran (Minneapolis)
1. How is it possible to declare Biden the winner with so few precincts reporting? (None had reported, the first time I looked). 2. The last Democratic presidential candidate who won South Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976, so unless something drastic and unlikely happens (like the Electoral College being abolished), South Carolina is irrelevant for Democrats in the national election.
John Smithson (California)
Pdxtran, still South Carolina Democrats deserve a voice in choosing the nominee. California is irrelevant for Democrats in the national election too in the sense that any Democrat will win this state. All Democrats wherever they live should have a vote. And the race was called by exit poll results. When it is a landslide like this the winner can be called as soon as the polls close. They could have called a winner sooner if that were allowed.
American Abroad (Iceland)
Message received -- with absolute joy! Biden can beat Trump and would restore America's soul as promised. I don't believe Sanders can, plus, if he were to, I think he would be a dreadful soulless president. We don't need another 4 years of that!
R Nelson (GAP)
@American Abroad Bernie is nothing if not passionate. Rather than "dreadful" and "soulless," he'd more likely be frustrated at being thwarted by a Corruptican Senate.
American Abroad (Iceland)
@R Nelson Well I'll give you that. So is Trump. Both passionate about furthering themselves as demigods. I simply don't trust Bernie. He's waffled on gun support, chaining his tune only when he decided to run for president it was politically expedient, and he outright lied about his conversation with Warren on whether a woman could win, and on his flattery of Cuba. It as NOT just about their literacy.
That's What She Said (The West)
How is South Carolina a buttress for Democrats--it has two Republican Senators--one is Lindsay Graham? South Carolina has not had a Democratic Senator voted into office since last century.
Blackmamba (Il)
My maternal enslaved Black African American and free- person of color ancestors lived and died in South Carolina where they bred with and were owned by and married my white European American ancestors until first William Tecumseh Sherman came by. Then they fled ethnic cleansing terrorism and their separate and unequal status for Chicago in 1915. But about half of my people went North to Baltimore and the District of Columbia in 1915. And half remained in South Carolina. South Carolina once had an enslaved black African majority. Then one of the highest percentages of black Africans on the eve of the Civil War. One of my free- person of color ancestors was drafted into the Confederate Army and captured at Missionary Ridge. In return for release from the Union POW camp at Rock Island Illinois he had to renounce the Confederacy and join the Union Army. After the Civil War he was a Buffalo Soldier before going home. My family in South Carolina is going to vote Democratic but they are as divided and uncertain as to who and why as my family elsewhere. Tim Scott is a mocking malign presence along with Lindsey Graham and Dylann Roof that South Carolina is Trump country.
R Nelson (GAP)
@Blackmamba An interesting family history, Blackmamba. Thank you for sharing.
Lynn in DC (Here, there, everywhere)
It is surprising to me that Biden is supposed to have so much black support. The SC results will tell us whether the polls are accurate.
Hope (SoCal, CA)
I wish someone would enlighten me here. If only 1% is reporting, how are the media outlets declaring Biden the winner? Do actual votes count anymore or we going to make everything up like the IA and NV caucuses?
Summer Smith (Dallas, TX)
This win for Biden is hardly unforeseeable. It is too early to decide the race. This is the 4TH OF 50 states to vote. Super Tuesday is going to give a much clearer view of each candidate’s path to the convention. All this breathless hype and despondent tears are ridiculous.
Richard Katz (Tucson)
Black voters can see through Bernie and his Trump-like, populist persona.
David (California)
South Carolina is a total disaster for Elizabeth Warren. She should immediately drop out of the race.
Corrie (Alabama)
Trump telling Republicans to vote for Sanders says everything. He’s encouraging them to cheat to boost his chances of re-election, and everyone should see shades of Jim Crow in this mindset. I’ve already heard of a ton of people in Alabama boasting about voting for Bernie on Super Tuesday, and I am looking forward to hearing all about the white new-confederates heading to the polls in South Carolina. The difference between SC and AL is that where there are no important Republican primary races in SC, unlike Alabama, where we have a pretty important Senate primary on Super Tuesday. So the white neo-confederates of Alabama who want to follow Dear Leader’s orders will be disappointed to know that they cannot vote for Bernie AND vote in the Republican senate primary race. And if they do vote in the democratic primary for Sanders, they cannot vote in the Republican senate runoff.
Dan Kravitz (Harpswell, ME)
Black voters in South Carolina can have some influence on the Democratic primary race, but absolutely no influence in the general election, unlike voters in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada. This column implies that South Carolina's black voters can be a decisive factor in selecting the Democratic nominee. I don't believe it and it would be a travesty if it was true. The majority of people who vote Democratic are white. We already have way too much of minority rule with Trump and George W. Bush. Dan Kravitz
Carl (Lansing, MI)
@Dan Kravitz Sorry to bust your bubble with in many states in the South a significant number of voters in the Democratic Party are black. They will play a role in primaries in those states. They are also make up a significant number of Democratic Party primary voters in New York, and California. After the nomination they along with Latinos will play a significant role in determining if the Democratic Party nominee has a chance to win the election. If less than 60% of black voters turn out and/or less than 45% of Latino voters, a democrat has no chance of winning.
Anna Cox (Brooklyn)
Not much of a base. It's pretty clear South Carolina will be voting for trump,sadly.
Mark Battey (Santa Fe, New Mexico)
I'm angry with you for calling it with no votes counted. South Carolina is an open primary state, and surprises from Independents and Republicans with no health insurance are very possible for Senator Sanders.
DH (Ml)
@Mark Battey Ever heard of exit polls?
David (Brookline, MA)
The call is based on exit polling, not reported results. If the poll was close, they wouldn't announce a winner, but apparently it's not.
Robert (Seattle)
Here is something that President and Michelle Obama can do right now, to help us put out the fire and win back the Oval Office and the Senate, and keep the House. Could they ask each of the candidates to make some significant gesture to contribute to the unity of the Democrats and to prevent the counterproductive divisions which are fomenting in advance of the party convention? If a candidate refuses to make such a gesture, that is, if they refuse to put the wellbeing of the democracy and the nation ahead of their own personal egotistical ambitions, then President and Michelle Obama would un-endorse them, vigorously. One such unifying idea that I like very much is a pledge to offer all of the other candidates, including the candidates who have already left the race, cabinet-level positions in their administration. A pledge like that would, of course, be contingent on other important aims, for example, winning back the Senate. This is in no way meant to undermine the convention rules which all of the candidates, even Senator Sanders, have agreed on. Speaking of which, the supporters of that candidate will almost surely accuse me of promoting a secret conspiracy to undermine their candidate. Nothing could be further from the truth. This bone weary and exasperated voter will vote for the nominee no matter who it is, including their candidate.
just Robert (North Carolina)
The early primary vote turn out vote in North Carolina has been below 2018 turn out levels. Black voters are a large percentage of the Democratic vote in this state and I hope black voters and everyone other Democrat will make their preferences known. A strong slate of democrat candidates including Erica Smith will be fighting to unseat Tom Tillis the incumbent republican. Defeating him and other Republicans for the US Senate must be a priority for every democrat. Erica Smith is black and a strong candidate and sending her to the Senate would make a powerful statement. Biden is also a strong candidate here, but he needs our help as well.
Terry Garrett (Laguna Vista, Texas)
This is simply a small bump in the road to victory for Senator Sanders. VP Biden has put all his marbles in this relatively insignificant state. Bernie takes Texas and California, and maybe Massachusetts among others and it is all over for JOe.
Cheery (San Antonio)
Bernie takes all those states. And we lose the WH and the Senate. Wishing will not change the moderates in the southern and Midwest states.
just Robert (North Carolina)
@Terry Garrett In North Carolina, die hard democrats no matter their persuasion will vote for Bernie and down stream Democrats, but this will not be enough to defeat Trump here or save our currently Republican Senate seat from six more years of Tom Tillis.
Terry Garrett (Laguna Vista, Texas)
@Cheery Sounds like you're wishing, Cheery. Bernie beats Trump by a country mile in the general. Get ready for universal health care.
Siebert (Tenseven)
How fun to scream and carry on, while nothing is presented on the corruptive reality of our elections, how the real game is in the hacking and international criminal networking to create desired results. How easily we are deceived.
Joel H (MA)
Let's get real. South Carolina is not the bellwether political state for the Democratic Presidential nominee. In 2008, Barack Obama won the South Carolina Democratic Primary with only a 55% majority vote. In 2008, John McCain won the South Carolina Presidential general election with a 54% majority vote. Furthermore, some pundits falsely grouse that the 2018 Blue Wave might be undermined by a Progressive like Bernie Sanders, but it was Bernie Sanders's rallying in 2016 of young non-voters, who stayed politically active as part of the Progressive Movement and voted in 2018 to create that Blue Wave of flipped states. Further furthermore, who's going to buy that bogus fortune telling self-fulfilling prophecy of Electability. Nobody can convince me that Joe Biden is anymore electable than any other candidate. Especially true for the uninspiring "safe" familiar gaffer, Joe Biden. Winning the Presidency and the House takes hard work and smart strategy. That's what Hillary lacked and cost us a Trump 4 years national degeneracy. It's all in the ground game of campaigning and Bernie has the young energetic non-voters and Boomers eager to create a political 1960's style legacy. For a future you can believe in. Keep that Blue Wave rolling strong. Don't let the status quo establishment cut the legs out from under us. Vote Blue Wave!
Kodali (VA)
Southern black votes are not important in general election. They are all red states. But, black votes in all other states is crucial for democrat to win the general election. If there is a positive correlation between black votes in southern states and other states, then southern black votes would predict whether the democratic nominee will win the general election or not.
FDRT (NY)
I agree. Though Black voters in the South are an important part of the diverse Democratic coalition, in the context of electoral politics they get wiped out like every other voter in a state that goes overwhelmingly for one party or another. Put another way, a Black vote in WI, PA or MI has way more significance on Election Day.
blgreenie (Lawrenceville NJ)
At his rally yesterday in SC, Trump told the crowd to go out and vote for Sanders today, "crazy Bernie." He didn't tell them to go out for Biden, "sleepy Joe." Trump seems to prefer a race against Sanders rather than Biden.
blgreenie (Lawrenceville NJ)
Biden's victory is heartening. Maybe he can go further. I fear this might be his last hurrah.
Sean (Ft Lee. N.J.)
Forever grateful 1960 black voters electing President John F. Kennedy; 2008 Caroline Kennedy NYT piece endorsing eventual President Barack Obama only time public figure politically swaying me.
Karen (Illinois)
I see the Biden haters are out invalidating the voices of moderate South Carolina voters. They are an aberration and do not matter.
Chris (NYC)
Obama won easily twice despite getting just 41% and 39% of the white vote. He did it by turning out the base of the party (minorities) by record numbers. The white share of the electorate had declined by 2% in every election cycle since 1992 (they’re still overrepresented today with 70% of the voters at 60% population). No democrat has won the white vote since LBJ signed the Voting Rights Act... it’s not gonna change anytime soon but it’s not fatal anymore: Obama showed the way.
Jeffrey Gillespie (Portland, Oregon)
Mark my words, South Carolina will change nothing. It will give Joe Biden a shot in the arm for 72 hours, at which point Bernie will bury him on Super Tuesday. Get ready to feel the Bern even more!
La Rana (NYC)
@Jeffrey Gillespie Yes. Agree one hundred percent.
Patriot (West Orange, NJ)
as Joe Biden rises in the polls, this race is increasingly seen as a contest between empathy and arrogant narcissism.
Sandra Scott (Portland, OR)
And Biden has done exactly what to earn Black votes? Other than losing badly in Iowa and NH?
George S. (NY & LA)
What difference does it make what SC does? Forget Black -- it's a dyed in cotton RED state. It isn't going to vote Democratic in November. Besides, the Democrats went into crash and burn mode beginning in IA and NH followed by NV. The Bernie crowd has now used the wide-spread early voting push in CA to grab that primary. Honestly, does anyone out there really hear anyone else discussing an upcoming Presidential election anymore? It's become a topic not fit for polite conversation. The silence out there bespeaks of the telling reality that we already know we're going to be stuck with you-know-who for four more years. There's no way the real electorate (you know, those ordinary folks who have an IRA and 401(k) full of stock mutual funds) will elect socialist Sanders. So sit back and buckle yourself in for four more years of the egotist-in-chief.
Trista (Knoxville, TN)
@George S. Maybe it won't vote Democrat in November if it doesn't properly organize but SC has a large black population. As seen in the Alabama senate race, it is critical that campaigns properly organize voters beyond just their ideological bases but also communities of color. If the Democrat nominee can create a similar coalition of black voters in SC, then it can definitely win the state in November.
Lefthalfbach (Philadelphia)
Millions of white Boomers came of age during the Civil Rights era. WE are not delusional. Race is complicated in thsi country. However, the chances that we will side with young white Leftists as against black people are nil. None. Zero, zilch. Nada. Nyetski. Rien. We remember Doctor King and Medger Evers. And we remember Bobby. And, maybe for the last time, we are going to exert our strength and, along with our black brothers and sisters, beat back the Left in the primary. The we and they will beat Trump.
Nick (Connecticut)
Bernie now leads nationally among black voters
Pdxtran (Minneapolis)
@Lefthalfbach : Uh, it wasn't the right wing that marched with Doctor King and Medgar Evers, nor was Bobby Kennedy a right-winger. If you're actually old enough to remember the Civil Rights era, you'll remember that the Democrats and Republicans gradually switched places between LBJ's signing of the Civil Rights Act in 1964 and Reagan's election in 1980.
Michael Denvir (Los Angeles)
@Lefthalfbach Dr. King actually identified with democratic socialism and was engaged in a movement for economic justice in his last years.
Jim S. (Cleveland)
I'd be more interested in what black voters in North Carolina think - voters that will actually matter in November.
Tim (Washington)
Sure, Biden, I get it. I think his problems run deeper than supposedly not being the candidate of choice for white liberal elitists, but I’ve always liked him and still understand the appeal even at this late date. But Steyer? Is there something I’m missing? The guy has just tried to buy support via the airwaves and payola. Why is he nonetheless polling decently in S Carolina?
Carl (Lansing, MI)
@Tim But Steyer is currently at about 12% of the vote in South Carolina. That should be an ominous sign for Michael Bloomberg. He isn't going to just go out and win primaries by carpet bombing the airwaves with commercials.
John Doe (Johnstown)
It was interesting watching the young black man being interviewed by MSNBC who was trying to convince his parents why they should vote for Bernie Sanders instead. I felt for him with his life ahead of him and what good Joe was doing for that. Do health conscious vegan millennials these days really want to eat heavy greasy soul food anymore either?
Northcountry (Maine)
Latino's are actually going to be a larger percentage of the total democratic vote than Blacks for the first time in 2020. The key there is obvious: Texas. Texas, is worth 2 Pa's. It completely changes the electoral map, forever. While S Carolina is an important primary state, there is zero chance SC flips blue, it's actually getting more white as a whole. Therefore, Nevada, may be more telling & consequent to democratic chances this fall and into the future. Who, so far has been driving Latino vote?
downgirldown (nyc)
Beware of expecting Black voters in SC to mirror black voters everywhere. Baby Boomers in the South are older and more socially conservative compared to Millennials and the Hip Hop Generation. Don't overlook the Killer Mikes of the world, who support Bernie.
RCJCHC (Corvallis OR)
I think a lot of southern black voters loved Obama and see Biden as "the next best thing." He's not. He's not even close. I hope you all keep your minds open and keep listening to what each candidate can do for the American people. The south needs every bit of help it can get this next election cycle so vote for someone who is in your best interest, not someone who is about wealth...
Carl (Lansing, MI)
@RCJCHC I think the important thing to keep in mind here is that black voters in South Carolina don't speak for black voters in New York, Texas or California, anymore than white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire speak for white vogters in New York, Texas or California
Bhaskar (Dallas, TX)
You can do this, South Carolina. Send a message to Biden that it’s time for him to retire to seclusion and enjoy his retirement. With what he has done to his face, you won’t know if he is happy or sad whether he wins or loses anyway. Join us mainstream and feel the Bern!
EJS (Granite City, Illinois)
I’ve never known quite what to think about the fact that the Democratic nominee is largely decided by black voters in southern states which the Democrats generally have no shot at winning in the general election.
John lebaron (ma)
"Now is the time for all good men and women to come to the aid of the Party." No, not THAT party, Vladimir.
Nonplussed (California)
The point of this article isn't that South Carolina is the base, but that Black voters are essential to a Democratic victory in November. Don't believe me? Remember Hillary's narrow loss in PA, WI, and MI gave the White House to Trump, and ask what would have happened if more Black voters in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Detroit had turned out to vote that day. South Carolina will be ruby red in the general election, but it's still giving us our first inkling of how Black Democrats feel about their choices today.
David (California)
According to the polls, Elizabeth Warren appears to be doing extremely poorly in South Carolina after her vitriolic and extremely unfair trashing of Mike Bloomberg in the last 2 debates.
Hope (New England)
@David After those two debates Warren saw a huge surge in donations and is close to making 28 million just this month alone. Before the debates, I didn't know that Bloomberg was recently funding GOP senators in their elections. I have doubts now that Bloomberg woud be fighting for Democratic ideals. Most of the candidates didn't do well in South Carolina.
tom harrison (seattle)
Interesting. Black voters say they are not like white Iowa but they are voting for the white guy rather than having supported either the black man or the black woman who ran. Sounds just like white Iowa to me. People, there is no such thing as the black community or the gay community or the white community, etc. To think that is stereotyping. One commenter below started out with, "we here in Washington...". Yet I hold the opposite view. How about, "some black voters we spoke with are voting this way". Or, some gay guys at a twink bar we spoke to felt this way". Or, a handful of white women we spoke to at the PTA felt this way. As a gay man, I can assure you that there was never a national convention where we voted to be lumped in with the L's, the B's, the T's, or the Q's. There was no vote on the "flag". One day, I woke up and the media informed me I was now part of that community. People assume I march in the Pride parade every year when in fact, I have not even been to one in over a decade. Do all black people eat chicken wings? Do they all go to a Southern Baptist church? We are all individuals and no one speaks for us. But the media loves to play identity politics and poll according to race like its a national census or something.
El Guapo (Los Angeles)
If South Carolina has an electorate that is predominantly Black, why is it considered a Red State? I'm assuming Blacks overwhelmingly vote Democratic. So I'm puzzled as to why it is a Red State. I thought Lindsay Graham would have been voted out a long time ago. Yet he not only persists...He is expected to win re=election for the umpteenth time. Please explain...
Carl (Lansing, MI)
@El Guapo You've got it wrong, the majority of black voters are democrats. That's entirely different than saying the majority of voters in South Carolina are black. Actually the State of South Carolina is about 65% to 70% white.
G (earth)
SC primary should be first. Biden would be a juggernaut right now if that was the case.
John (Sims)
Biden can beat Trump. Sanders cannot. It's that simple.
Kaushik (Ghosh)
No different from what southern whites and southern states in general would say. It is a more a signof conservatism and a lack of exposure to the larger currents seizing the world (to which, unknown to the older black voters, Sput Carolina is very, very exposed; climate change for one; look at the low priority of climate change as a electoral issue among older black voters; nothing to be proud about; victims of a racist system which has withdrawn educational chances)
Ribollita (Boston MA)
“Black voters are likely to split, perhaps sharply, along generational and ideological lines, and spread their votes across contenders, rather than coalesce once again behind a single candidate.” Is it some kind of a surprise that Black people are unique individuals with varied opinions and minds of their own?
JP Welsh III (New York)
Sad that we continually divide the country based on race, gender, religion, etc. So Biden scored points because of his promise to appoint a black person to the Supreme Court? Is that what it takes? I saw one interview with him where he appeared to lose his thought midstream. And what of the female voters? Puerto Rican voters, etc.? It would be refreshing if we could support a candidate who will lead this country back to greatness without this constant division - what a country it would be if we came together as one!
Mkm (Nyc)
South Carolina's Electoral Votes are going to Trump in 2020 just like they did in 2016. Along with NC, GA, AL, MS, LA. TN. The Hispanic vote is more important in Northeastern and Western Cities. The Black vote does not really matter in the actual race in November, the Electoral College.
Chris T (California)
Wrong - particularly in the Midwest support by African Americans could determine whether Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which Trump won by 30,000 votes in total, swing back to their blue trend.
Carl (Lansing, MI)
@Mkm Then I guess you won't mind if black voters in New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and other states just sit out the 2020 election or vote for Trump. After all in your mind they don't really matter. It's attitudes like yours that will be highly beneficial in to Donald Trump in 2020.
Xoxarle (Tampa)
So Clyburn took over $1 million in donations from pharmaceuticals over the past decade, decides to back the candidate who doesn't threaten his corporate donor base, and 47% of SC voters say his endorsement influenced their vote, according to exit polling. Doesn't look like Sanders had much of a chance in SC. Or indeed any candidate foolish enough to run on fighting for Americans bankrupted by medical bills.
Tom (Coombs)
If Bernie garners the most delegates and is the denied to be the presidential candidate, it will spell the end of the democrat party. Bernie has unleashed a fresh interest and hope for the country. To deny his supporters would be a disgrace. (to quote Trump)
R Nelson (GAP)
@Tom "To deny [Bernie's] supporters would be a disgrace." Yes, Tom--quoting Turnip. According to a report by our intelligence agencies last week, the Russians favor Bernie for the nomination, and Turnip urged his rally crowd to delegitimize the Democratic primary by voting in droves today for the one he considers the weakest: Bernie.
Colin (California)
SC Dem primary voters, from a state that near certainly will go Trump in the general, really ought to weigh their vote today instead by considering the new polling coming out of the swing states to the north, where Hillary lost, where these new polls show Sanders outperforming Biden (and the rest) against Trump.
Michael Tiscornia (Houston)
The Democratic primary schedule needs to change. First primaries should be held simultaneously in the South, Midwest, West. Such as South Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, to provide diversity and an electorate close to the population at large. Iowa and New Hampshire do not make sense in today’s world.
AZPurdue (Phoenix)
I really don't think that it matters if Bernie gets the nomination and happened to beat Trump. Even most Democrat leaders do no support his agenda. Congress, even if Dems in both chambers, will not pass his agenda.
Michael (Boston)
Biden’s last stand here is like an exercise in futility. Who seriously thinks that South Carolina will go for the Democrat in November?? Or that any southern state will, with the likely exception of Virginia? Don’t get me wrong, I like Biden even though I think his time has past. I think all the Democratic candidates would be vastly superior to Trump. But let’s focus on the ball. By Weds morning this will be a 2-3 person race and Biden won’t be in the running. I hope the candidates who haven’t won any race (or only S.C.) will have the grace and wisdom to bow out.
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
A highly recommended comment states, "I will vote for the Democrat against Trump unless it's Bloomberg, or unless Bernie gets the most delegates and doesn't get the nomination." And that is why, unlike the Republicans, the Democrats, on a good day, no longer can see the forest for the trees, on a mediocre day are like trying to herd cats, and on a bad day are perfectly willing to sacrifice our country to four more years of Trump if they can't get their way. The Republicans cannot reelect Trump. Only the Democrats can do that and, with their ongoing circular firing squad, are quite effectively doing just that. As to South Carolina, given that the Republicans are making no secret about their efforts to get their voters to vote for their preferred (i.e. weakest) Democratic candidate to face Trump (essentially Sanders at this point) in open and semi-open primaries in South Carolina, California, and elsewhere, it is entirely irresponsible to report election results without noting the fact that results may be dramatically skewed by crossover voting. Reading many of the columnists and "news" articles, it is almost as if the writers are totally unaware of this significant reality. Bad journalism (to put it politely.)
Trista (Knoxville, TN)
Volunteered to sign people in at the Klobuchar rally held in Knoxville this morning. It was an incredibly surreal event for me personally. Politics is an adrenaline drug for me so being in the room of a presidential candidate was definitely a moment to remember. However, one of the main things I observed while signing people in before they got into the venue was that I only saw one African American. When the event was over, an event attendee pulled me aside and told me that she saw only two African Americans in attendance at the rally. She approached one in the venue and wanted to personally thank them for their support for Amy. The guy evidently requested to meet with Amy and was ultimately rejected by campaign workers. However, he evidently felt like the campaign workers were dismissive of his request which he said was a big disappointment for him. I understand that presidential candidates are unable to meet with every supporter. It's the Saturday before Super Tuesday so Amy is definitely on a time crunch to get to as many areas as possible. When your presidential campaign rally has only two black persons in attendance, something has to give. Likewise, I also think the campaign could have done a better job of getting the word out to black voters across Knoxville. In a city with black poverty at 42%, it's simply not efficient to only advertise it via the internet. You have to get campaign workers out to those neighborhoods and meet with them beyond just knocking on doors.
Reality (WA)
Mr Herndon, The South got somthin' to say, but tragically it is a dissonance that has been destroying the Union forever. Any candidate who might possibly help preserve this sinking ship will not get a single electoral vote from that region, so it is inappropriate for the South to have much to say in the primaries.
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
A highly recommended comment states, "I will vote for the Democrat against Trump unless it's Bloomberg, or unless Bernie gets the most delegates and doesn't get the nomination." And that is why, unlike the Republicans, the Democrats, on a good day, no longer can see the forest for the trees, on a mediocre day are like trying to herd cats, and on a bad day are perfectly willing to sacrifice our country to four more years of Trump if they can't get their way. The Republicans cannot reelect Trump. Only the Democrats can do that and, with their ongoing circular firing squad, are quite effectively doing just that. As to South Carolina, given that the Republicans are making no secret about their efforts to get their voters to vote for their preferred (i.e. weakest) Democratic candidate to face Trump (essentially Sanders at this point) in open and semi-open primaries in South Carolina, California, and elsewhere, it is entirely irresponsible to report election results without noting the fact that results may be dramatically skewed by crossover voting. Reading many of the columnists and "news" articles, it is almost as if the writers are totally unaware of this significant reality. Bad journalism (to put it politely.)
Prudence Spencer (Portland)
Steyer’s investment in private prisons should disqualify him for running as a Democrat. I’d vote for trump before I voted for steyer.
Carl (Lansing, MI)
@Prudence Spencer Well, you don't have to worry about that. Steyer's campaign just announced he's dropping out of the race.
Jordan Slingluff (Knoxville, TN)
Wasnt't Biden suppose to win South Carolina anyway? I feel like a lot of this is just establishment Democrats putting up one last push for Biden instead of Sanders. I don't really like hearing all these Democrats just put all black people into the same category. While they may as a voting block vote heavily Democrat they also have low turn out. I feel like when you talk about the black community instead of speaking to them it has an effect of suppressing turnout. It's like the establishment Democrats just get their "black issues" together and expect them all to follow along. That works for a segment but not all. If candidates would make more of an effort into going into the black communities, especially throughout the south and just talking I think they could actually increase turnout. This whole lip service to minorities, liberals, and gays has got to stop.
Michael Denvir (Los Angeles)
Coming from a blue state perspective, I can't get my head around why we put so much emphasis on a deeply red state to dictate the national vote. We will not win South Carolina any time soon. At least California is now part of Super Tuesday -- that is some progress. It would make even more sense to include a plurality of swing states at the start of the primary season.
Robert (Seattle)
Go South Carolina! We our here in Washington State are with you all the way. Caucuses are always biased in favor of the most extreme candidates. New Hampshire and Iowa are unrepresentative. Biden is not struggling as much as he seems to be. It is, of course, a shame that those states set the tone, especially this year. The less radical candidates are taking votes from one another. The sooner there is a clear frontrunner in that group, the better. We have the same South Carolina feelings out here in Washington State. Let us have our say and we'll surprise you, too. We are no less the base than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada. And we, too, have our own views on things. A state-wide poll last week is a case in point. The four frontrunners were all within the margin of error of one another. And Bloomberg was in second place. This time around much more is at stake then just the presidency. If Sanders and his socialist schtick is the nominee, whether or not he wins in November, we will not win back the Senate, and we will probably lose the House. Our democracy is in jeopardy. Our basic civil and human rights. The illegal Trump Ukraine scheme unfairly damaged Biden about as much as it unfairly helped Sanders. You've got this, South Carolina.
Tullymd (Bloomington, Vt)
The mainstream media, those corporate entities vigorously oppose Sanders. They’ll have their way with voters in Lindsey Graham’s state. Will wait till Tuesday when the civilized part of our country vote, even Texas which I don’t include in my labeling.
tom harrison (seattle)
@Robert - Bernie!! Bernie!! You don't speak for Washington State, now do you? :))
Robert (Seattle)
"He [Mr. Darby, the Charleston minister] compared Mr. Trump’s presidency to a house fire, and said ...'You put out the fire first -- and then you redecorate.' " That's exactly how I feel. You don't start another fire at at the other end of the house, and hope the fires will put one another out. You don't burn the rest of the house down, in order to deprive the first fire of additional fuel. First, you admit that the fire is there, and then you put the darned thing out. In other words, you don't elect a divisive, my-way-or-the-highway sloganeer who bellows day and night on behalf of an intolerant revolution.
Tullymd (Bloomington, Vt)
I get your point but the analogy is highly flawed. Fire fighters in the forests often start a fire to prevent the original from spreading. Think!
Robert (Seattle)
@Tullymd We're all talking about a house fire here, not a forest fire. The analogy is just fine.
Susan (California)
Shouldn’t the issues of the day (health care, climate change, wealth inequality, racial injustice) be the focus of what defines the “base” of a political party? If the fundamental issue revolves around “electability”, which by definition is an attempt to guess how other groups might or might not vote, there is an obvious contradiction. The vote is no longer an authentic expression of one’s own views. Black voters, like everyone else, should vote for what they think is in the interest of well informed, effective public policy.
AGoldstein (Pdx)
Their performance history is a powerful tool in deciding who among the democratic candidates is best for our diverse country as whole, overly biased toward none, ignoring the plight of none and helping navigate some terrible times. Younger candidates have the promise of youth with visions that align with many. But they lack the experience of dealing with national and world crises. We are in several such crises right now and they are worsening. I hope younger voters think about the value of knowing how someone performed under some of the worst of times. James Clyburn knew and it showed in the most human of terms in declaration of support for Biden.
Oliver (New York)
Sanders seems to be running against the establishment. He and his supporters against the world. Not that much different from Trump, though they believe something entirely different. Well this is setting the table for a revolt if Sanders doesn’t win. It’s like a coach who complains about the referees the whole game, so that if his team loses he can always blame the referees and league establishment for his loss; instead of pointing the finger at his coaching and the way his team played the game. 
Brooklyn Dog Geek (Brooklyn NY)
This is a strange tack to take. Black voters only make up 24% of Democrat voters. So, although they're an important *part* of the base, they're not *the* base. No one particular group is. Secondly, I believe South Carolina went heavily for Clinton in 2016 and that didn't work out so well. In conclusion, I'm not sure the passion and importance of black South Carolina Democrats is a great barometer of electability. Trump sadly and decidedly proved that none of us really know.
B. (Brooklyn)
Cities like Charleston voted for Mrs. Clinton in 2016; rural areas of South Carolina went for Trump. That is similar to New York State, in which New York City voted Democratic and much of the rest of the state voted Republican.
Robert (Seattle)
Go South Carolina! We are with you. Caucuses always favor the most extreme candidates. New Hampshire and Iowa are unrepresentative. Biden is not struggling as much as he seems to be. It is, of course, a shame that those states set the tone. The less radical candidates are taking votes from one another. The sooner there is a clear frontrunner in that group, the better. We have the same South Carolina feelings out here in Washington State. Let us have our say and we'll surprise you. We are no less the base than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada. And we have our own views on things. A state-wide poll last week is a case in point. The four frontrunners were all within the margin of error of one another. Bloomberg was in second place. You've got this, South Carolina.
Renee (Pennsylvania)
“You put out the fire first — and then you redecorate.” I left the Democratic Party in 2005, and live in a closed primary state. Over the last 4 months it has become clear, given the disorganization on the ground of national and local Democratic organizations, that I needed to change my registration back to Democrat so that I can vote in the primary. I will say that my vote is being cast as a vote against a particular candidate, but if that candidate becomes the nominee... I will vote for them. My focus is now the down ballot candidates, especially after a local Democratic committee saw fit to endorse someone who has expressed support for Donald Trump, and views antithetical to the stated core values of the Democratic Party. It is indeed more important to put the fire out, than to redecorate, because that fire is spreading.
Sammy (Colorado)
I’ll vote for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is but I hope it’s not Bernie. Promising to give away this much free stuff is a nonstarter in this country(look up the 1972 election). The people not getting free stuff, e.g. not going to college, resent those who are getting the free stuff and will vote accordingly. Perhaps an extra 50 million young people will come out and vote for Bernie but I’m skeptical. I’ve always felt bad when I think that I and many others voted for John Anderson instead of Jimmy Carter in 1980 and we got Reagan who really is the one who started this mess. Without Reagan, Trump would be occupying himself with his next pornstar instead of badly playing the role of president.
Steve (New York)
I'm surprised that Sanders hasn't made it more well known that back when he was in college in the 1960s, he was protesting for fair housing. As far as I know, none of the other candidates can claim such a long record of protesting for equal rights. As far I know, Joe Biden never did nor did Bloomberg or Warren all of whom would have been contemporaries of Sanders. I was surprised when John Lewis back in 2016 said that he didn't know that Sanders had done anything to warrant support from blacks. When you do something because you think it is right that to me is far different from doing it, like Bloomberg did when apologizing for stop and frisk, for reasons of personal advancement.
Gustavo (Hoboken)
What is fair housing?
Neildsmith (Kansas City)
Blacks in S.C. aren’t going to deliver their state for the Democratic nominee. It seems odd we should pay any attention to them at all.
Matt (VT)
Black voters are the base of the Democratic Party, but they are not monolithic politically. A South Carolina black voter is not necessarily in agreement with a Chicago black voter or a Detroit black voter or a Los Angeles black voter. Assuming the South Carolina vote speaks for all blacks is unwarranted.
Corrie (Alabama)
@Matt yes, because evangelical Christianity in the south makes black voters more socially conservative than those outside of the south. When we talk about evangelicals, we often don’t include African Americans, which is crazy because the white and black churches in the south have the exact same origins. Look at the history of Southern Baptists for example. The problem we continue to face is the authoritarianism of evangelical Christianity.
lisa (michigan)
@Matt no one is assuming all blacks vote the same- what they are saying is the voter makeup in SC is different than Iowa
Mel (Louisiana)
@Matt Every black Democrat I've spoken to in Louisiana supports Biden. The like him, they trust him and they believe he cares about them and the country, and I assure you that we have more black voters here than you have in VT. Also, the white Republican "Never Trumpers" here will vote for Biden, as will moderate Independents. Get over this Bernie nonsense and get Biden elected!!
Bhaskar (Dallas, TX)
South Carolina, you can do this. Don't encourage him and prolong his misery. Biden shoud retreat to a peaceful life. Just end him campaign today and give him a little going-away retirement gift. Join the mainstream and feel the Bern!
Kristin (Houston)
Why is Joe Biden so hung up on South Carolina anyway? South Carolina won't vote for him in the end.
Beth (Colorado)
One small quibble with the headline. In 2008 SC black voters were not going for Obama in polls ... until he won in Iowa and then the damn burst. So it is more the case that Democrats are a dynamic and feisty lot. None of us can take the others for granted. The current mud slugging debates are not helpful.
Deus (Toronto)
For those that think that Bernie cannot be Trump means that you are just not paying attention. and despite what the MSM and the corporate establishment of the democratic party claim, poll after poll confirms that Sanders beats Trump by a wider margin than any other candidate, including Joe Biden. The fact that Joe Biden is hanging on for dear life and to think a win in SC will be the answer to his dreams of moving on in this campaign is just that, dreams. He is polling poorly in the two biggest states of California(where 750,000 have already voted by mail)and Texas, all states where he once led. and other states are not that much better. I would remind everyone that in SC, Joe previously led by as much as 40 points, yet, this time, if he wins by 10, that's a landslide and he will be moving on to bigger and better things? I am still at a loss to explain why so many African American voters in SC and southern states still cling to the old establishment democrats since in the previous 30 years, all the democratic party and their candidates have offered is not much more than lip service to the community, little in the way of real legislation that would improve lives.
Joseph (New York)
To the best of my recollection, during the 2016 primaries, the black voter came out in force for Hillary. And when the general election came around, they stayed home. I sense a repeat of 2016. Biden will get a major boost which will bring him closer to Bernie. Then at the convention on the second vote the superdelegates will give the nomination to Biden. The convention will enter into the area of complete chaos since 90% of the Democratic Party Elite have already said they will vote against Bernie -- just as the superdelegates in 2016 were committed to Hillary even before the primary began. Then on November 3, 2020, Trump wins again. It is said that we deserve the government we get -- and we do.
Topher S (St. Louis, MO)
How dare you claim that the "elite" of the Democrat Party will vote for a -- gasp! -- Democratic rather than an Independent.
Alan (Columbus OH)
The SC primary seems like a microcosm of the national race: A billionaire with a vanity campaign has crushed the chances of everyone but the top two but has no chance to win himself. The only question that remains is will the billionaire limit the race to two or three real candidates or go so far as to indirectly determine which of those real candidates will win?
Steve (Seattle)
I have news for Mr. Cakley, I consider myself part of the base and I am white, a male, 70 years old living in Washington state and my "views on electability — which candidate is best suited to beat President Trump — would not be shaped by outcomes in the predominantly white states Iowa and New Hampshire", nor the predominantly black state of South Carolina.
ChristineMcM (Massachusetts)
This article highlights a central difference between this primary and that of 4 years ago. By the time of South Carolina, it was Hillary and Bernie. But now there are still too many candidates in the race, which splinters the non-Bernie vote. And naturally, African American voting patters are suddenly reflecting the new reality: boomers and those even older are really no longer as much in charge as before. The youth vote is increasingly important, meaning predictions aren't neat and tidy. I'm surprised that billionaires have made such inroads with black voters--they wouldn't seem to be their natural constituency. But I am glad that of all voting groups, African Americans seem to recognize, far better than most, the danger of having 4 more years of this current president.
RVC (NYC)
@ChristineMcM I think older black voters think the country is racist and conservative at its core — and they would rather a Democrat plutocrat than a Republican one, since they expect one or the other. They assume the country as a whole is too conservative to ever go for Bernie - a position that would make sense to someone living in a deeply conservative region.
AR Clayboy (Scottsdale, AZ)
Black voters in SC and elsewhere might very well be the Democrat base, in the sense of being the party's most reliable and loyal voters. We most certainly are not the base as pertains to ideology or the Party agenda or the priority our issues receive in the governing process. In those respects we are pacified with platitudes and a few dollars and titles spread out among Black elites and influencers. Once in power, Democrats surrender the economic agenda to the unions and the social agenda to the feminist and LBGQT communities. Take issues like diversity and inclusion. The principal moral force for those issues comes from the demonstrable institutional discrimination against Blacks from the slavery to the present. Yet the tangible benefits of todays diversity efforts go primarily to women and secondarily to gays. We remain at the bottom of the employment ladder. To gain real power within the Democrat Party, Black voters must first break ranks with the Congressional Black Caucus and the well compensated middle class Blacks who gain appointments and other largesse in the "set-aside" economy. Second, Blacks must demand that our educational issues have absolute primacy over the interests of the teachers' unions. Third we must develop a real alternative to being automatic votes for Democrat candidates whether that is staying home or considering votes for select Republicans who show an interest in our issues.
Topher S (St. Louis, MO)
Many laws were written and passed with equal treatment of the African American community in mind. Two stumbling blocks are that laws can't force a change to the attitudes of specific individuals nor can they lift up a community that won't hold itself accountable but would rather wallow in victimization.
Milad M (Finland)
Why is it that Nevada is only once mentioned in passing in this article? It's all about juxtaposing Iowa and New Hampshire with South Carolina; white with black. Does the Latino vote – which one candidate won overwhelmingly – not matter all?
Colby (Virginia)
@Milad M I had to do a quick Google search. It seems to be that Latinos are less like to identify as Democrats than African-Americans or Asian-Americans. That’s according to one source I found. Making the assumption that voting percentage match identification, Latinos seems to be less of sure bet.
jerry lee (rochester ny)
Reality Check demcratshavnt done much for working people since carter was president .Republicans just passed nafta 2 so kiss what jobs pay living wage good by . We need someone like Bill gates or Steve Jobs wife to run as independent or both bill as president an mrs Jobs Vice President.
Sasha Stone (North Hollywood)
No Democrat has won since the 70s without this crucial black southern vote. Dismissing them because they are red states in the national election was Bernie Sanders' biggest mistake in 2016. Unforgivable, actually. Carter, Clinton, Obama all had that vote. Democrats who could not win there didn't win the presidency.
N. R. (U.S. A.)
@Sasha Stone This makes little sense considering many of those states have consistently voted for Republicans for the past several general elections. Democrats who did win there in the primaries (such as Hillary) also haven't won the presidency.
Melissa (USA)
@Sasha Stone what unforgivable action did Sanders take to dismiss southern black voters? The only group of people I know Sanders to have dismissed comprises the very wealthy, and not so much them as how they and their organizations are taxed. Also, I have to point out that your sample size is much too small to draw statistically significant conclusions. Moreover, there is no apparent connection between losing states that don't affect the primaries or election and losing the primaries or election, nor do you propose a possible mechanism for this to support your theory.
JQGALT (Philly)
@Sasha Stone That makes no sense. The southern states which have the highest percentage of blacks are also very red states. No Democrat president has won those states in recent history.
Tim Clark (Los Angeles)
The GOP is at cross-purposes in SC, as it is encouraging its voters to crossover and vote for Sanders. Meanwhile, Trump wants Biden, not Sanders, to run in September. Trump's preference, which he has stated many times, is a Sanders plurality and a different candidate selected at the convention, which would ruin any chance of a Dem victory. To further this aim requires a Biden win to slow Sanders down and reduce a strong plurality.
DataDrivenFP (California)
The message from the state that hasn't voted for the Democrat in the general election since 1964 is that the candidate who squashed Anita Hill, wrote the 'three strikes' bill that sent two generations of black men to prison and supported banks over ordinary people in bankruptcy law should be our choice. No, thanks. I'll wait till South Carolina decides to embrace democratic principles like "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."
Beth (Colorado)
@DataDrivenFP Like your comment. Hope you vote for the nominee. Keep focus.
Eric (New Jersey)
@DataDrivenFP Still better than the candidate who passed not a single bill of import during his long political career. What Bill he authored did Bernie Sanders pass other than renaming post offices? Joe Biden got things done and will again. Bernie, if nominated, will face obstruction the likes of which we've never seen before after we lose the house. Vote and rally behind Joe Biden. He is the only candidate that will get things done.
Dobbys sock (Ca.)
@Eric Odd, that's not what he told his Wall Street donors while begging them for money; he told them "Nothing will change". Guess that's how centrist get things done.
Marianne Roken (Wilmington)
The population of SC is much more representative of the population of the country as a whole than Iowa and NH.
Ravi (NY)
the population in Nevada is also a better reflection of the country as a whole and I dont hear anyone talking about the Latinos making a statement as to who they think the candidate should be. I dont understand how so much emphasis in SC that in the end will vote for Republicans anyway.the black people in South Carolina does not speak for all the black people across the country
dem (America)
@Marianne Roken yes but they do not vote Democrat in the general election and contribute zero electoral college votes decades in and decades out. They are not going to win this election for the Dems. The progressives are. Not one single Southern State will vote Dem so they are not the base!
Dan Kravitz (Harpswell, ME)
The odds on the Democratic candidate winning South Carolina in November are zero. Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada are swing states. What makes South Carolina relevant? Dan Kravitz
Tim Clark (Los Angeles)
@Dan Kravitz For that matter, what makes Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee relevant to the Democratic nominee? No Democrat is going to carry those states in a presidential election, but Bloomberg and Biden will contend in those states. As if it matters.
Lynn in DC (Here, there, everywhere)
@Dan Kravitz You do understand that this is a primary election where all states (blue or not) get a say in who will be the Democratic nominee?
Sarah (Seattle)
@Dan Kravitz The House and Senate matter as do local legislative districts and Governorships. A presidential candidate has to have convincing pull down ballot.
Lou (NYC)
If Trump were smart he would be begging for Biden to get the nomination. The entire general election would be a national reckoning on the Hunter Biden Burisma case. How can anybody call this guy electable? Trump is at his best when he can say Yeah I’m crooked but so is everybody else.
Kristin (Houston)
I would love a love a piece of that crystal ball other readers have. "If Bernie wins, then Trump will win the election." How do you know? The fact is, no one knows what will happen. If we knew, we'd be talking about President Hillary right now.
Deus (Toronto)
@Kristin This is what happens when voters rely strictly on the MSM and their pundits(who are usually ALWAYS wrong) for their information. Dozens of polls have been done and the overwhelming majority point to Sanders, over any other candidate as having the best opportunity to defeat Trump. Sanders also has the highest approval rate among a cross section of voters and democrats as well. By the way, these are the same voters that vote for "down ballot" candidates, yet, for some bizarre reason, the pundits want people to think they are not.
American (USA)
Quality comment, Kristen.
M.W. Endres (St.Louis)
The article by Astead Herndon explains that black voters in South Carolina vote much like white voters do in that state. Mr. Herndon shows us that voters( black and white) are split along generational and ideological lines. Their votes are spread among the contenders. Black and white voters in South Carolina have much in common. They are split along generational and ideological lines more than i thought, previously. Could we be overstating the difference between white and black voters throughout our country ? Also, could we be overstating the difference between blacks and whites in our country ? M.W. Endres
Sparky (NYC)
Instead of doing "two white states" then a "brown state" and now a "black state," we need to choose states that are more demographically representative from the start. Perhaps Maryland or Illinois. Our primary process is beyond ridiculous. Iowa and NH, need to be pushed aside.
Rieux (Oran)
@Kat As a POC, I don't understand the "vanity" vote comment and hang my head at the assumptions in here about who or who not a Democratic base would ultimately support as a nominee. Is this the woke thing to do now? How about instead you do you and each person just votes for who they want rather than strategize about what others will do. Also Reggie Love, Special Assistant to President Obama endorsed Buttigieg, just FYI.
Lynn in DC (Here, there, everywhere)
@Rieux Why is it noteworthy that Reggie Love endorsed Mayor Pete? So what? Contrary to popular belief, all black people do not think alike and the decisions of random black individuals have no bearing on how other black people vote. "I'm going to vote for Pete because Reggie Love endorsed him" said no black person.
Girish Kotwal (Louisville, KY)
Just as Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada is not representative of whole of America. Neither is South Carolina. Super Tuesday will be the representation of America's nook and corner. To me Biden winning only South Carolina, Amy Klobuchar winning Minnesota, Warren winning Massachusetts and mayor of South Bend, Indiana Pete not winning even his home state of Indiana means nothing.
WOID (New York and Vienna)
@Girish Kotwal Conversely, Warren not winning MA would mean a lot...
Susan F. (Seattle)
I constantly see people say that if Bernie isn’t the nominee that probably means his supporters will sit out the election and Trump will win again. As someone who hasn’t decided between Warren and Sanders my fear is that the same moderate Democrats who make this argument and say things like “blue no matter who” are going to sit out the election if Bernie is the nominee. I’m more afraid that the so called “establishment Dems” would actually rather have 4 more years of Trump then Bernie Sanders as President.
A (Brooklyn)
I mean in a twisted way it would kind of be fair, considering Sanders supporters sat out and helped elect Trump the last time around. Here’s hoping moderates prove to be the bigger people if Sanders is the nominee.
R Nelson (GAP)
@A Bernie supporters were justifiably angry at the rigging of the process in 2016 as evidenced by the firing of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and the admission by Donna Brazile--yet they overwhelmingly voted for Hillary in November; only a small percentage sat it out or voted for others.
R Nelson (GAP)
@Susan F. I worry about the report by our intelligence agencies that the Russians "favor" Sanders as our nominee; they apparently figure he's be easy to beat with one word: "socialism." But I will not sit out the election if he is the nominee. On the contrary: I will campaign for him and vote for him, because he would be all that stands between us and the end of democracy. And as a Bernie supporter who went on to campaign and vote for Hillary, I would hope those who support Bernie in the primaries would do the same for the nominee if it turns out not to be Bernie.
GraceNeeded (Albany, NY)
Our ‘house is definitely on fire’, Mr. Darby. We need the firefighter to put out the fire before redecorating. We need someone with experience and backup on the world stage and Congress to set our country back on a stable path where we can trust our president to tell the truth and care about ALL Americans! We can’t afford anymore chaos. We need rock solid experience and expertise to turn the tide back towards America being the leader of the free world, not perfectly but persevering in the fight.
Andrew (NY)
The base of what? These are voters in a state that has not voted Democrat since 1976. So, sorry, the results of this primary do not matter. And it is quite clear that no single group has the right to claim to be the base of the Democratic Party, since this party is more fractured than Humpty Dumpty.
Ellen (NY)
But SC isn't representative of the democratic electorate either. It always votes Republican. We should redo the schedule, with democratic leaning diverse states kicking off the primary. That would make the most sense.
Yeah (Chicago)
To repeat: the votes in the swing states matter, and the votes of blacks in the swing states must be top priority. Are the votes of blacks in SC a good proxy for the votes of black in Milwaukee and Ohio?
AB (Illinois)
They’re a better proxy than voters in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Ravi (NY)
when was the last time SC swung?
JerryV (NYC)
@Yeah, You are asking if all blacks are alike and vote the same way. My response is to ask you, "Are all whites alike and vote the same way". Ditto with asians and latinos?
Fred (Up State New York)
At first in America we have identified ourselves as northerners, southerners, east coast , west coast, fly overs. Then we became red states, blue states, purple states. Now we have taken another step towards further identification. White states and black states. So what are we saying? If you want to win in white state you pander to the white population and if you want to win in black states you pander to the black population? So now we know from the heading in this article "We're the Base" Black Democrats in south Carolina Want to Send a Message, that the base of the Democratic Party is the black Community. So what does that mean? Is the base for the Republican Party the "white Community"? Are we moving in the direction that Republicans are the "white party " and the Democrats are the "black party"? We constantly talk about trying to heal the racial divide , we talk about recognizing diversity and accepting people for who they are and not by the color of their skin. Yet in this election cycle all we hear from the candidates and from the news media is about race. People... we are not moving forward we are moving backwards. What a shame.
Ravi (NY)
well said
Lynn in DC (Here, there, everywhere)
@Fred The Republican Party absolutely is the " white party" and the Democratic Party is the "black party." The overwhelming majority of whites vote Republican and nearly all blacks vote Democratic. The black vote is necessary to elect Democrats since so few whites, relative to the total white electorate, vote Democratic. Whites can put a Republican in office without any black votes. This information should not be a shock to anyone. Other groups such as Latinos and Asians don't vote in large numbers, and the portion of the groups who do vote split their vote between the two parties and are not sufficiently large in number to put anyone in office.
T Smith (Texas)
I think the African American community would be best served by letting the Democratic know they are not to be taken for granted. For too long the Democrats have done little other than some gratuitous pandering while assuming these folks should depend upon the largess of the Federal government because they are victims. I know lots of African Americans and they don’t consider themselves victims, they just want a fair shake like everyone else.
Andy (NYC)
Sheesh this is taking identity politics to the next level. And people wonder why Democrats have hard time winning votes?
Lynn in DC (Here, there, everywhere)
@Andy Trump rode the identity politics train to the White House but apparently that is considered okay, the problem is the identity politics of the Democrats. Got it.
Chip (Wheelwell, Indiana)
@Lynn in DC Yeah, you kind of need old white guys more than anyone else. They vote more consistently than anyone else.
Lynn in DC (Here, there, everywhere)
@Chip Okay but that was not the Trump platform.
Ken Sayers (Atlanta)
I do not understand what a black voter would vote for a candidate who wants to maintain the status quo, unless, of course, they are happy with the way things have been going for the last75 years
MJM (Newfoundland, Canada)
@Ken Sayers - Cuba provided universal education which can only be a good thing in itself. Literacy is good for people. Maybe Cubans will further educate themselves on line and decide they want a democracy. China has lifted 850 million people out of poverty. No one can bring about a change in their country’s government if they and their loved ones are starving to death. Are you disagreeing the literacy and having enough food to eat are bad even though they happened under a form of government you disagree with? Stating that the Cuban government was right to support universal education doesn’t mean Bernie a supporter of communism. It means he supports literacy. What is wrong with that?
dcbcn (Washington, DC)
@Ken Sayers It's mind boggling. Especially when you consider that on average, black Americans got even POORER under Obama-Biden than under Bush-Cheney, and gentrification in majority-black cities like Washington exploded under Obama, to the point that DC is no longer majority-black. Not to mention, Biden has zero pro-black record before Obama invited him onto the ticket for purely politically calculated reasons. And when Obama-Biden had an opportunity to bail out the citizens while bailing out the banks, they chose the banks exclusively. Today, banks are roaring with money, and the people are still struggling to stay above water -- conditions that, in fact, led to Trump beating out the entire Republican establishment. So if Democrats think that another establishment candidate is the winning ticket still: they're more out of touch than they were 4 years ago.
mo (TN)
@dcbcn well said
Michael Livingston’s (Cheltenham PA)
I don’t know. Black voters are perhaps 10-12 percent of the electorate. Even younger Black voters aren’t very enthusiastic about Biden et al. Why should voters in a state the Democrats have no chance of carrying being decisive?
Joseph (Atlanta)
@Michael Livingston’s Bernie’s bedrock for his nomination bid is California- a state that is essentially guaranteed blue. Why should voters in a state that Democrats have no chance of losing be decisive? If you think only swing state voters should matter for the primaries, just say so. Though Bernie would probably lose in that case, since his chances of winning Florida are pretty low.
heinrichz (brooklyn)
@Michael Livingston’s Exactly, they really not very relevant either when it comes to the country as a whole and btw younger blacks probably vote for Bernie.
Ravi (NY)
when did bernie make California is bedrock, he just won the popular vote in the first 3 states including Nevada where he crushed every one else. so what are you talking about? then you went on to talk about swing states and say he is going to lose Florida like Florida is the only swing state in America. well if you didnt know he is winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan
Christian O (Brockport NY)
I fail to see how South Carolina Democrats “are the base.” This state hasn’t gone for a Democrat since the 70s. Even during the 2016 primaries, I didn’t understand why Clinton put so much stock in southern states results—they are reliable Republican states for generals.
Pete in Downtown (back in town)
@Christian O. I have asked myself that exact question: Why do Democrats put so much stock into the primary voting of states that rarely if ever voted for their presidential candidate in the last 30 years? South Carolina is solidly for Trump and Republican come November. Wouldn't it make more sense to have the earliest primaries in the swing states that are "in play", like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin? Those are the states that could and hopefully will make a difference.
gf (Novato, CA)
@Christian O They care about South Carolina because most people—and pretty much all of the media—treat the caucuses and primaries as a horse race, where how you finish matters more than anything else. So even though no Democrat has a chance of winning South Carolina in a presidential election, the aura of victory carries serious weight in the ensuing primaries. And it’s a rallying cry for the cheering spectators. I don’t know how much of that is human nature, and how much is a product of our nominating system, but it’s not about to change.
Kaushik (Ghosh)
I think South Carolina democratic vote is really regressive. It allows an old establishment -- with all the attendant nepotism and corruption -- to use the black vote to keep a white entrenched core in power in the DNC
Jeanne (Boston)
Mr. Richardson’s comment that Black voters know White voters better than they know themselves is the kind of identity politics elitism that divides liberals. So much for the offensiveness of stereotyping; Richardson needs to turn his eyes on himself and ask why no one in the DNC mainstream calls him on it. Why? Because the divisive tone of his comments engender serves their agenda of avoiding a conversation about class, which would unify the people against the 1% leadership of the DNC. Then they would be seen clearly for what they are: THE PROBLEM! He should also attend a few Bernie Sanders rallies and he will see diversity of representation as we all unify for economic equality and social justice the DNC, with its “quaint” segregation intact, can’t and WON’T touch. The DNC doesn’t love Black voters until election time. Bernie’s commitment is unwavering and decades long.
Kingfish52 (Rocky Mountains)
I'm puzzled by the supposed black support for Biden. When you look at his record, even casually, you see a man who has not been a friend to African-Americans with his support for the 1994 crime bill he helped wrote, his opposition to busing, his handling of Anita Hill's complaints against Clarence Thomas, and in general his support for Wall St. and the donor class. The only reason he was asked to be Obama's VP was to help draw those wealthy white interests. It seems like a kneejerk reaction for African-Americans to support this guy. Ont the other hand, Sanders began his public career in college, getting arrested for participating in a civil rights demonstration, and fighting for the working and middle class and disadvantaged his whole life. Choosing Biden over Sanders is a head scratcher.
Deus (Toronto)
@Kingfish52 This is what happens when voters choose style and familiarity over substance. The fact is, as much as Joe Biden and the democrats are counting on this win in SC, as you state, for several years now, in Presidential elections, pretty well ALL of the southern states have voted Republican. For 30 years now, establishment democrats have offered very little in policies to have the southern voters sit up and notice and Biden is of that same generation in which the outcome will remain the same. The only candidate that can really have a chance of making inroads is one with real policies to "hang his hat on", not lip service and that candidate is Bernie Sanders.
heinrichz (brooklyn)
@Kingfish52 People voting against their own best interest is nothing new. Remember how many poor whites voted for Trump and he certainly is not interested in helping them.
Kingfish52 (Rocky Mountains)
@heinrichz Agreed. I just find it strange that people consistently do this. Voting seems much more emotionally-based than logically-based. Maybe like rooting for a sports team or an individual athlete - if fans only ever rooted for the most logical team to win, there wouldn't be very many teams.
Derek Flint (Los Angeles)
No one from Southern states that the Democrats never carry in November is "the base" of the Democratic Party.
BNewt (Denver)
I am all for black voters having a voice and think they need to change the order of the early states; however, it’s disappointing they are choosing Biden when he has performed poorly so far and do not think he will do well moving forward either. As a supporter of Pete, I am disappointed that many seem like they are not giving him a chance and if they would, he would have a chance at the nomination. The media narrative that he has a problem with black voters is not helping either. With the Douglass Plan, he has the strongest plan for combatting systemic racism. He sincerely does want to earn their vote, is listening and wants to help their community. He does have many positive achievements in South Bend that have been overlooked and he has learned from his mistakes there and wants to do better. Compare to Bloomberg, his record looks better in my opinion. I hope Pete can do better than expected, or potentially he can gain more broad support in the future. We need new voices in the Democratic Party.
Sandra Scott (Portland, OR)
Pete clearly has the best record on race of any candidate with the possible exceptions of Bernie or Liz. But Biden got the most photo ops with Barack, so...
Charlie (San Francisco)
As a gay person my experience with bias from African Americans hasn’t been particularly laudable. I expect Buttigieg to exit this race with grace; something we can’t possibly expect from Warren.
K.M (California)
@Charlie Elizabeth Warren has a great deal of grace and composure. Assumptions about her seem to be pure and simple sexism.
Tim (Washington)
@Charlie I didn't see much grace out of Buttigieg in that last debate. More like extremely rude and condescending. But I hope you're right--he ought to protect his brand for next time.
Socrates (Downtown Verona. NJ)
South Carolina 2016 Vote Trump 1,155,389 55% Hillary Clinton 855,373 41% South Carolina is 67% white, 27% black, 5% Latino and 1% Asian The neo-Confederacy is alive and well in South Carolina and it will reliably vote for Trump in November. I'm not sure what a Biden South Carolina victory will accomplish aside from giving Joe one 'victorious' primary in three Presidential campaigns and allowing him to withdraw from the race 'gracefully' after he gets walloped on Super Tuesday. It's over, Joe.
Chris B. (NYC)
@Socrates - I can play that game: how many people are in Iowa and New Hampshire - COMBINED! What's their contribution to U.S. GDP? What vital role do these states play in maintaining America's standing in the world? I have yet to see someone provide an honest answer as to why these two insignificant states, play such a significant role in U.S. politics and more importantly the future of this great democracy. If I were to guess, I would say it's likely because they have virtually no minorities... What I do frequently see however are innuedos like this overly-simplistic comment. My point is this: for all those who are still confused, Bernie will not be President or Warren for that matter without the enthusiastic support of Afro American's. Like it or not, they are the base of the Democratic Party, and long after many have moved on to the burbs or fly-over country, or become (perhaps) super wealthy, or see religious or "fiscal" conservatism as anathema to being a democrat, Black Americans will still be here holding the party together - continuously fighting the civil liberties we ALL hold so sacred.
Sparky (NYC)
@Socrates Is your point that we should only count votes from democrats in blue or purple states? It seems so. Biden is not exciting, but Sanders is the perfect foil for Trump who will paint him as a communist with one foot in the grave (where are those health records by the way? What is he hiding?). If Sanders is the nominee I will vote for him, but also expect to lose not only the Presidency, but the House and Senate.
Chris B. (NYC)
@Chris B. - correction: at the end "....fighting FOR the civil liberties we all hold so sacred"
K.M (California)
Where is Elizabeth Warren in all of this? I would much prefer Elizabeth to any of the male candidates. Women, and Elizabeth in particular, have an ability to negotiate, and use their power in a positive manner, similar to Nancy Pelosi. Elizabeth would be able to negotiate solutions rather than insist on the definite. Our country is much more diverse than ever before; having a solution hammered to us by either the right or the left, excludes a large group of voters. It is time for a woman, and it is time for Elizabeth Warren.
David (California)
Primary voters in South Carolina should vote with this in mind: Many Democrats on the ballot in States crucial for the Electoral College have already warned that they simply could not support Sanders for president, if Sanders in the ultimate nominee. Even Trump is strongly encouraging his supporters to vote for Bernie in the Democratic primary in South Carolina, with the thought that Bernie would be a very weak adversarial candidate and easiest to beat. A vote for Bernie Sanders in South Carolina is a vote for Trump in November. Please do not contribute to the Democratic defeat In November by voting for Sanders today in South Carolina.
Marsha Pembroke (Providence, Rhode Island)
Bernie is so unelectable he has beaten Trump in virtually all national polls and even in most battleground states ones! He also does better than any other candidate. He's not my first choice, but he's far more electable than another sexist billionaire, an Obama-Clinton clone, or the two midwestern politicians who have poor records on race relations and policing and have little appeal among minorities! Robert Reich's recent assessment is worth reading. “Calm down, establishment Democrats. Bernie Sanders might be the safest choice. “Moderate” candidates won’t be electable if they can’t speak to middle- and working-class frustrations.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/26/calm-down-establishment-democrats-bernie-sanders-might-be-safest-choice/ Also, read Steve Phillips's excellent electoral analysis: “Bernie Sanders Can Beat Trump. Here’s the Math. Most available evidence points in the direction of a popular vote and Electoral College victory.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-polls.html? Sanders is building a multiracial coalition and he definitely appeals to working class whites disillusioned with Trump. He not only has a good chance of bringing back many Democrats from Trump — including those Obama-Trump voters — but will also do very well among Green, 3rd party voters. As Phillips points out, Jill Stein's vote totals in the three crucial battleground states were more than the Clinton-Trump differences!
WOID (New York and Vienna)
@David Oh, stop. By all accounts Trump himself is worried that he might have to run against Bernie. True, there are Republican operatives who imagine they'll be able to beat Bernie more easily. It doesn't make them any more prescient.
dcbcn (Washington, DC)
@David "Many Democrats on the ballot in States crucial for the Electoral College have already warned that they simply could not support Sanders for president...." Many voters in states crucial for the electoral college have already indicated that their preferred candidate is Sanders -- just as they did in the 2016 primaries. So, are you saying that the Democratic politicians in those states are warning that they are going to simply ignore the will of their constituents if their constituents elect Sanders? Doesn't sound very democratic to me.
Wapati 409 (Blanding Ut.)
My bet on this S.C. primary will be a slim win for Biden. A close 2nd for Bernie. Okay I am usually very poor at picking winners. If Bernie wins this primary, then Trump wins in November.
Smash-ter (Connecticut)
You assume that because you think that. We will come together to vote Trump out, no matter who the pick us. If the superdelegates choose someone else in a brokered convention that doesn't have a huge plurality then Trump will definitely win.
pork chops (Boulder, CO.)
@Wapati 409 You've confirmed that you're poor at picking winners. The vast silent majority have already concluded that any one of the candidates is better than Trump. The debates are almost irrelevant at this point.
Andrew (NY)
@Wapati 409 Thankfully, you're poor at picking winners. Sanders 2020!
stuckincali (l.a.)
In California, the media has been all about the celebrities,bloggers,rappers,actors, etc.who are screaming about Bernie. The women in the race,were being dismissed,as well as Biden. Today, the non-stop JFK/Bernie or Bloomberg, ads are being broken into with Amy,Elizabeth Warren,and Biden ads. As a woman of color who has voted since 1977, I know better then to let a Twitter person,radio personality,actor, etc. override the research I have done on any candidate. Already voted, and hope the turnout is there.
Kat (SC)
I agree with Rev Darby. This 61 yo white woman voted for Joe Biden for strategic reasons. I actually donated to Pete Buttigieg but I know a vote for him in S.C. would just be a ‘vanity’ one. He’s too young to be embraced by the Democratic base here. Regardless of the final decision I will actively support the Democratic nominee. The danger of four more years of the current chaos form of governance is too great.
Padonna (San Francisco)
@Kat Your sentiment is acknowledged. This Super-Tuesday voter will defer and vote for Bloomberg. Why? After twelve years as CEO of NYC, he will know where all of Trump's "cement pours" are available for excavation. Mr. Biden will be strung up for the entire year in Senate inquiries into Hunter Biden & Ukraine; he really is gaffe-prone; and he carries the legacy of Obama, not universally appreciated. Ask yourself who is likeliest to peel off Republican voters from the Trump cult of personality. Remember "Never Trumpers"? Don't bring a water balloon to a gunfight. I don't like it either. But finally, get a grip.
Edwin (NY)
"Many said they were eager to send a message to the national Democratic Party: that their views on electability would not be shaped by outcomes in the predominantly white states." Imagine something like this retrograde view being expressed by white Trump supporters. They would be dismissed as ignorant, racist deplorables, while here these hidebound, ignorant sentiments in favor of an arch conservative embodiment of the status quo, apparently out of pure spite, are treated with the utmost reverence.
heinrichz (brooklyn)
@Edwin These folks were already wrong in 2016 when endorsing Hillary.
Melissa (USA)
@Edwin I think it's a fair point. There isn't really any good reason for any small handful of states to set the tone of the election. On the other hand, I don't know that a tone is really set. I'd actually happily throw my vote behind a clear front runner and play an infinitesimal part in preventing a brokered convention, but we really don't have one at this point. My state votes on Super Tuesday. My preferred candidate isn't doing great but I voted for that candidate anyway because I think it's premature to count anyone out. The Super Tuesday states can't influence each other, and many people have voted early, diminishing the impact of South Carolina on Super Tuesday. This year California with all its delegates is in that mix and the rest of the states are more of a mixed bag then they have been to date. So in my opinion next Wednesday is when these conversations will really start to become interesting and meaningful.
American (USA)
Quality comment, Edwin.
Coots (Earth)
“Black voters know white voters better than white voters know themselves,” Mr. Richardson said. “So yeah, we’ll back Biden, because we know who white America will vote for in the general election in a way they may not tell a pollster or the media.” Lol! The only thing that clearly illustrates is how out of touch black baby boomers in SC are with voters of every race, creed, color, and religion in the rest of America. It doesn't matter what their views are because in the grand scheme of things they are an absolute minority in the absolute sense of the word. And when Bernie takes 14/15 states on Super Tuesday, what then? Take their ball and go home? If you're not supporting Bernie you're supporting Trump, the GOP, and all their evil ilk. Period.
Armo (San Francisco)
@Coots Get Bloomberg out of the race and Biden goes ahead of Bernie in the delegate count after the super tuesday debacle. Remember that Bernie just can't change the rules this time to his favor.
dcbcn (Washington, DC)
@Coots As a black American I'll say this: My sincerest hope is that black South Carolinians will surprise us all and hand a victory to Sanders, as much in support of Sanders' policies as a middle finger to the establishment and consultant classes who think they can count on black people to vote for their establishment candidates without giving much in return. That said, when Nikki Haley was governor and a protester removed the Confederate flag from in front of the SC state capitol, Haley sent two black officers to restore the Confederate flag -- and they did it! From that moment on, I have had very little interest in what people in SC have to say about anything. But I'm optimistic, and hope that they prove me wrong today.
Smash-ter (Connecticut)
amen
Nathan Hansard (Buchanan VA)
“We’ve had a campaign season where people are calling out structural racism and saying ‘white supremacy’ on the debate stage,” Mr. Robinson said. “The fact that black people are being talked about in more nuanced ways — like black youth vote versus black baby boomers vote — it speaks to how much the movement building has been translated to electoral power.” THIS! And not just for the interests of black folks, but also Latino folks, young folks, working class folks, the list goes on. The Party of Trump has nothing but tax cuts for plutocrats, fear of the "other", and corruption to offer. The Democrats have gotten much better while the Party of Trump has gotten so very much worse. I'm a Bernie guy, but I will vote for the Democrat against Trump unless it's Bloomberg, or unless Bernie gets the most delegates and doesn't get the nomination. Those are my only deal-breakers.
Annie Grant (Berkeley)
Those are big “if’s.” Listen, I’m no fan of those scenarios either, but I urge all those who want Trump out of office to consider if their “principles” are worth it when you consider how it’s going to feel to wake up to his re-election on November 4th. And consider the irreparable damage that can be done in 4 more years. I’m Blue No Matter Who, no matter what.
Mark (Los Angeles)
Ok. So you’re a Bernie guy and will vote against Trump if Bernie doesn’t get the nomination, unless you won’t! Sounds like not much has changed since 2016.
Nathan Hansard (Buchanan VA)
@Annie Grant and @ Mark I stand for democracy above all else. If former (recently!) Republican Bloomberg wins it's because of his wallet. No. If Bernie wins the most votes (which shouldn't shock anyone since he has the highest favorable-to-unfavorable ratings of any Democrat in any number of polls) but doesn't get the nomination that means that we nominate someone who has fewer votes. Biden is not the same as Bloomberg-Mayor Pete-Amy. They are different human beings with different reasons to vote for them, just like Bernie (and Warren) are. We aren't voting for a "lane". We are voting for individuals. I say again, I will support the individual who wins the nomination fair and square, again unless it's Bloomberg, for reasons stated above.
A. McVeigh (London)
I now live in London - have done for decades - but I still remember South Carolina. Oh, I do. I remember those magnolias and the dogwoods and the red red soil and those rolling, luscious accents. But... I also remember other things. I remember the casual racism, the overt sexism, the sense of being stuck in the distant, practically Civil War-era past. The system has GOT to be broken where Iowa and New Hampshire (lily white) start, with Nevada (which represents the real America) next, followed by a state so deeply riven, so gloriously flawed, as S.C. And yes, I will always love S.C., where my mother grew up, and my grandmother lived. A part of me will always be there. But ...
Sandra Scott (Portland, OR)
The primaries should focus on the states and demographics that will decide the general. Black votes in red states will mean nothing in November.
Oliver (New York)
If Sanders doesn’t win or cones in third it’ll be interesting to see how his base reacts. They’ve been known to be quite rambunctious when they don’t get their way.
Richard Katz DO. (Poconos Pennsylvania)
Just like when the mainstream media, drug companies, health insurance companies, oil companies, military industrialized complex doesn't get their way.
Melissa (USA)
@Oliver maybe, but it would only be interesting for the couple days leading up to Super Tuesday because it would create more uncertainty and Super Tuesday might help us make more sense of the primaries -- or less, who knows? It'll be more interesting to see what happens if he comes in first.
Deus (Toronto)
@Oliver Since Bernie has been under a constant negative onslaught from the MSM and corporate/establishment democrats from the day he entered the democratic primary in 2016, I suppose in many ways, the ever growing supporters of Sanders are just a "little skeptical" of what they see and hear in the media, especially with the case of several super delegates, outwardly looking to conspire against him getting the nomination and their prevailing attitudes in which they show no humility whatsoever. It is not so much "getting their way", it is fairness and letting democracy take its course. Clearly, the word "democratic" in the democratic party and their MSM surrogates, have forgotten what the word means.
Ambrose Bierce’s Ghost (Hades)
For a state that overwhelmingly votes for the GOP. I’m puzzled why the Democrats even bother with a primary. “Too small for a republic; too large for an insane asylum” That quote still applies 150 years later.
Lisa! (CT)
I support anyone that will beat Trump. If this time around it’s a more moderate candidate, I’m fine with that. I don’t necessarily trust the DNC or Bernie. God help us!
Deus (Toronto)
@Lisa! Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale. These were the same moderate/centrist "safe" candidates the democratic party thought were "winners". If you notice, they ALL had one thing in common, they LOST! It is time for a real change with a real candidate with ideas, uncorrupted and committed to moving forward with actual ideas, not "tinkering around the edges" with important issues like healthcare which ultimately solves nothing.
ManhattanWilliam (New York City)
The whole Iowa caucus debacle, followed by a primary in New Hampshire and, again, a caucus in Nevada is an utterly ridiculous way to gear up the Democrats for battle against the Republicans and their gangster-leader. IF the Democrats are unsuccessful in defeating Trump, they only have themselves to blame. The past month has been a disaster and the idea of nominating Sanders (who isn't even a Democrat, don't forget!) is a sure way to hand a victory to the most evil person ever to inhabit the Oval Office BY FAR. I'm not saying it has to be Biden but I AM saying it CANNOT be Sanders (or Warren) if the Democrats want to send the gangster packing (as all decent people do).
Smash-ter (Connecticut)
if you believe that Sanders will hand Trump 4 more years, then we will give Trump what he wants. instead of being divisive, support the candidate no matter who it is
stefanie (santa fe nm)
@ManhattanWilliam True Sanders is only a Democrat when he wants the Democratic presidential nomination. However, I will be voting blue no matter who and I do think all voters should consider Elizabeth Warren as someone who can bring centrists and progressive together. Remember unlike Bernie she realizes politics is about compromise.
EricG (Alexandria, VA)
Ah, this happens every single year at every level of government. Either you kiss my ring or my people will stay home. I see it at the national level. I see it here in DC. It's a full-fledged disease in NYC politics. See what staying home got everyone in 2016? Trump. How awesome has that been for America?!?!
Deus (Toronto)
@EricG That is why democrats lose, they are more interested in collecting money, than winning elections. Sanders represents a threat to their "gravy train" of corporate consultants, political hacks and lobbyists who roam D.C. and, as you know, run the place. A Sanders presidency would ultimately make them irrelevant.
Trassens (Florida)
The point is to stop Bernie Sanders. We don't want a "Fidel Castro" in America.
Deus (Toronto)
@Trassens You better talk to Barack Obama about that comment. He was more supportive of the Cuba and what its regime accomplished than Bernie ever was and Sanders was only talking about their literacy program, nothing else.
Jonathan (Atlanta, Georgia)
I believe Sanders will win South Carolina. However, his immigration policy is detrimental to working class black males; quiet as it is kept, many black males prefer Trumps approach to illegal immigration rather than Sanders; Biden appears senile, I doubt he will prevail as the winner in South Carolina; Mayor Pete will get an official wake up call that Black people dislike him- he should drop out; Amy Klobochar will hopefully drop out after tonight; Warren is cool but I doubt she can get a good portion of the black male vote; Steyer will do poorly regardless of the amount of money he has spent. Are you listening Michael Bloomberg?
Jeremy (Missouri)
Send a message by having your state go blue.
Doug Dugan (NJ)
If you're the base then get out and vote, and not just for a black candidate.
Bruce (San Diego)
I don’t really see South Carolina as an important state. While they do seem to have an outsized influence in the primaries, once the election goes to the general, the state will probably go republican like it always does. What conservative states do is pull the party to the right without contributing votes when they really count.
Nathan Hansard (Buchanan VA)
@Bruce You have a point, but I'm not sure it applies to the SC Dem primary electorate.
Tim (Washington)
@Bruce I believe the rationale is that if you can attract votes in a conservative state, even from within your own party, that means you have a better chance of appealing to wavering moderates in toss-up states. Don't know if that's actually accurate, but I think that's the reasoning.
Sparky (NYC)
@Bruce You could certainly argue the enthusiasm and attention created by having an early primary should be reserved for purple states, possibly VA or NC in the south instead of SC. Maybe even FL. But, of course, votes of democrats from a safe red state like SC are just as important as states from anywhere else.
mike murray (Plymouth Rock)
The best argument for this would be delivering as an effective base. Republicans have consistently taken SC in the general election by large margins.
tiredofwaiting (Seattle)
I’m thankful I live in a State with early mail in voting. Not sure why but here in Washington where we live we don’t seem to have much of the political drama I see on TV and in 40 years of voting I’ve never once had anyone knock on my door or call me at home or on my cell. I don’t live in a small town either, a rather large suburb. I find it all rather bizarre yet entertaining.
Francis (WA)
@tiredofwaiting Thanks for pointing out this out; I too am grateful to live in Washington for this reason and many others. I’ve never understood why other states do not implement a similar system. Could it be that party “leaders” don’t want to give up their entrenched power and the money that flows with it?
Martino (SC)
I live just outside of Columbia in Pontiac, SC just west of Elgin. So far in this 50/50 white/black neighborhood the ONLY local canvassers have been going door to door for Styer, period. They show up about 3 times a week pretending that they're hearts are really in it despite the fact they're all paid to wear out their shoes.
Jacqueline (Colorado)
I hope Bernie has a good day. He is the one that actually would be able to help the lower class, which disproportionately is filled with black and brown citizens. While I'm sure all the older church goers would be happy with Biden, I'm not so sure than POC youth will be seeing any improvement in their lives while the church goers get to enjoy their continued retirements.
Sparky (NYC)
@Jacqueline Except he will lose in a landslide. Can't help people if you don't get into office.
B. (Brooklyn)
I think the black church goers worked hard for the retirement money you seem to begrudge them. And since they're of a certain age, they had some real hardships and bigotry to face and without the subsidies and the affirmative action and racial preferences in schools that younger people have. Stay in school, get an education and a skill and a job, then find a mate and only then have babies. Then young "POCs," as you call them, won't need Bernie or anyone else to help them. Besides, Bernie is big talk. Don't fall for the Brooklyn-tough accent. When the going got tough in Brooklyn, Bernie fled to green Vermont, the way a lot of white-boy liberals did.
dcbcn (Washington, DC)
@Sparky Based on which polls, exactly? I am a Sanders supporter and don't mind if people attack Sanders; but his opponents never seem to attack with evidence, just opinions and things they've heard on cable news or The View. The moderate-centrists, though, get very upset when progressives attack them, because we tend to attack them with cold, hard facts that topple their narratives. Let this sink in: Sanders wouldn't be doing so well if the establishment Democrats were well-liked and respected by more voters. People are thankfully wising up, and those opposing Sanders seem to be mainly those who've already "gotten theirs" from the current system.