as we watch this administration set up procedures where information is funneled thru the office of Pence, the only thing we can be assured of is that the government will lie to us. If honesty was a priority Pence would not be doing what he is doing.
That being said it will fall upon folks like the Times to scour and find the truth. So stay out of jail folks...We need you
57
How many hours did it take for trump to deny what Dr. Nancy Messonier of the CDC advised the U S regarding when, not if, spell it correctly, the corona virus, known as Covid 19 will hit us? Thanks to our HHS’s secretary, Mr. Azar, it took all of two hours before that assessment was contradicted while trump returned from his shining two days visiting Modi’s India, while New Delhi burned.
And, not to worry, Mike Pence, of all the non qualified sycophants devoted to this liar in chief, is in charge of this crisis. Whatever god or gods there be, they must be laughing hilariously at the stupidity of the American people that elected these greedy, stock market obsessed, non-scientific fools that, unfortunately, occupy our governing offices. Please, NYT’s, don’t sugar coat what we are in for with this tragic virus as we are not in Xi Jinping’s dictatorship authoritarian government, yet, I think.
39
Could. Maybe. Possibly. I really do enjoy the fortune tellers of the NYT and media in general speaking as if it could, maybe, possibly do something at some time, somewhere, affecting something, anything!
But don't panic he says.
5
The Coronavirus Pandemic is a genuine worldwide disaster, and Trump has made it worse by denial and incompetence.
Trump is concerned that this looks bad for him. His natural response to any crisis is to lie, cover up his own mistakes, and blame others. VP Pence will do whatever Trumps says. We cannot trust anything they say.
Under Obama, the US government was prepared. But after Trump cut the budget of the CDC two years ago, experts predicted that this would hurt American preparedness:
“Why American could become vulnerable to the next major pandemic”
https://time.com/5177802/cdc-budget-cuts-infectious-disease/
Every American death will be on Trump’s head.
29
Think it’s time for a presidential news conference so 45 can reassure us everything is under control. Who knows better about medical issues than fearless leader...
9
This is not an "Opinion" piece per se, but a collage of others' views on various aspects of the topic at hand. As such, the writer offers nothing original to ponder or debate.
4
Spencer, thanks for your competent newsletter and facts. The only thing you left out was the fact that we also have Rush Limbaugh, our medical correspondent in chief, who has told us "its just a common cold"!
How many buffoons does it take to run a government? Just one at the top, and of course his Fox and Friends.
23
It is hard to face the concept of global pandemic with "wash your hands" and buy an extra bottle of necessary medications.
Already it is hard to get hand sanitizer and alcohol in our stores. Amazon was charging $100 for masks the other day when the staff in our medical office. A really common glaucoma medication - generic - was not available and on back order at one of the largest local pharmacies. Already we can see the specter of shortages looming.
Some of us will get sick, and some very sick. The disruption in the supply chain for medical supplies is as dangerous as the failure of our government to have pandemic plans in place. Even as smart people figure out how to manage the crisis, they likely face problems getting the right equipment and supplies to do so.
Government is the not problem; stupid governing is the problem. Healthcare and staffing agencies that can coordinate are our first line of defense. Identifying critical resources and assuring multiple global sourcing - some of it could be right here in the USA - is necessary too.
38
"Last year, the administration shut down a program dedicated to identifying and researching animal viruses with the potential to infect humans — in other words, viruses like 2019-nCoV."
Journalists and citizens should ask: What is the governing philosophy - and moral argument - that underpins such a decision? What's the justification?
56
Republican voters everywhere are responsible for the public health catastrophe that we will soon be dealing with--if not as a result of this virus, then the next one.
The perpetual push for low taxes, small government, deregulation serves the interests of absolutely no one in anything but the very short term.
But it seems as though Republicans will tolerate any risk in their hatred of government and in their desire to have just a few more grubby pennies in their pockets. Presumably they think those grubby pennies will shield them from adversity. Well, it depends on the form the adversity takes, doesn't it.
If you have consistently voted for small government, low taxes, and healthcare only for the rich over the last decade or so, I wish you the very best of luck as this or the next virus comes for us.
21
Quoting this article: "It’s possible, as Gabriel Leung writes in The Times, that there are a vast number of infected people who aren’t being counted because they have mild or asymptomatic cases. That would suggest the fatality rate is much lower, perhaps even as low as the seasonal flu’s."
The latest information from the W.H.O. indicates that is not the case, according to Stat. Quote:
"When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed."
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/new-data-from-china-buttress-fears-about-high-coronavirus-fatality-rate-who-expert-says/
This means the mortality rate estimates are probably accurate.
That does not mean the mortality rate is fixed. It appears to be falling in China, as the doctors get a better handle on treatment, and more equipment. This only means the initial estimates of 2% are probably accurate.
10
The broken, unaffordable health care system in the US doesn't lend itself to actual health. We don't have a sufficient number of doctors or nurses to deal with this epidemic not to mention Americans who can't afford to get tested due to the cost. 80% of the ingredients for drugs come from China and India, and other devices from Puerto Rico so there will be drug shortages since this occurs in a normal year when supply chains have contamination problems, hurricanes etc.
We have hit the iceberg and time has run out for rescue with this incompetent administration who doesn't believe in science.
12
For the most part I lead a very quiet, simple life. My biggest personal thrill usually involves my children, their children, or my garden. Quiet, simple. All of the current news has me bouncing around emotionally from mildly hopeful an intelligent human will sit in the Oval to mentally envisioning the world at a standstill from COVID-19 with all of the human cascading impacts to all of us simple folk. It’s difficult to forecast the impact of this threat on our daily lives, now, during, and after. I’m 66 years old mostly healthy but for mild COPD from years of smoking. I’m a likely goner if I become infected. We’re due to go to a college reunion in late May, wonder if it’ll be held and how many geezers make it. This is a very strange place and time for all of us. Mortality is certainly on my mind. I’m ok with dying, we all do. I’m concerned for all the survivors in all the families who will be burying a lot of loved ones all at once, including my kids. I’m so glad I’m not going through this alone and that along with my family, the NYT, all my neighbors, and you, Commenter, and you.
15
The best thing we can do to survive this crisis will be to vote the current administration out of office.
38
This needs to be shouted from the rooftops: "Last year, the administration shut down a program dedicated to identifying and researching animal viruses with the potential to infect humans."
At the time I remember thinking "This seems like a dumb thing to do, given that we've already had a string of disruptive outbreaks like SARS, H1N1, MERS, etc., but maybe we'll get lucky?"
Well, we didn't get lucky, and Trump can't explain this away. Whoever is the Democratic nominee needs to keep this front and center. Possibly, with more effective monitoring (and better relations/cooperation with the Chinese, including pressure to ban or at least better monitor the bush meat trade, instead of knee-jerk trade wars), we could have nipped this in the bud before it started.
Now we all pay the price. The safety of the American people is the President's highest responsibility. He failed, and by extent, failed the world too. It must not happen again.
41
Self-quarantines will result in a pandemic of Cabin Fever and the resulting widespread domestic strife. Will police and 911 crews have to triage their responses? As sure as the stock market feeds in emotion, yes. We are about to find out what happens when the super rich in general and a particular malignant narcissist don’t get their demands met.
5
If a cell phone has heat sensor, microphone and gyroscope why isn´t Apple , FB or Google developing an app that can detect if we carry the virus so we can stay home and receive medical care via video as well as medicines via Amazon or whatnot?
2
The coronavirus will kill us all, like in the Stephen King novel "The Stand"!!!!!
Now that the worst case has been mentioned, maybe try to calm down about this, and recall that the regular flu killed about 646,000 worldwide last year and we didn't really notice.
8
I want to know how long Dr. Fauci and other esteemed colleagues and medical experts will put up with running their statements past Mike Pences' offfice.
I know this much: unlike this adminstration, the government's medical exerpts aren't going to profess loyalty to the president in lieu of telling the American people what's going on and what are the minimal precaustions they can take.
Given the life and death nature of COVID-19, I want to see how the public reacts if Trump tries to fire or sideline these men of learning just becuase they value American lives over his demands for loyalty.
21
Why this, exactly? Speculations about the global trajectory, and, note well, economic ramifications, of an infectious disease largely solicited by people who are noteably devoid of relevant scientific qulaifications. Again, why?
2
Really bad given that quarantines aren’t necessarily effective. See https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452 which identifies 4 patients who were “cured” (tested negative for the virus) and released from quarantine only to be positive again for the virus 5-13 days later.
3
Unfortunately, including statements like: "“If you have 300 relatively close friends and acquaintances, six of them would die,” McNeil said..." is neither accurate nor helpful in providing solid information to the public.
If you had 300 close friends WHO WERE ALL INFECTED WITH THE VIRUS then that statement would be closer. This virus is about as contagious as SARS or the normal annual flu, so take the same precautions you would take when the flu season is bad. Over 61,000 people died in the 2018 regular flu season, so let's not get hysterical about this new virus. Sensible precautions work.
Sensational journalism is not needed, we have too much Fox News hysterics already, and I'm disappointed to see the NY Times following that path on this serious, but not dire, issue.
7
"There is no evidence that pets can be infected."
Actually there is evidence that dogs can be infected. A pet dog in Hong Kong has been tested with low levels of the Coronavirus.
The more you learn about the Coronavirus and its potential effects, the more sense it makes to allow yourself to panic. The most likely estimate of the number of people who will die in the US is 3.5 million, and not all of them will be 95-year-olds in nursing homes. An additional 14 million Americans will have severe cases that could result in permanent organ damage and personal bankruptcy. In other words, you might not die, but our life after the Coronavirus will probably not be worth living.
So, the gun is loaded, and we're all about to play Wuhan Roulette. All it takes is some rube sneezing on you, or a careless touch of the face with your hands and your goose is cooked. And all the handwashing in the world isn't going to save you.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-in-pets-dog-in-hong-kong-has-low-level-of-disease?ref=home
3
When all information, including scientific fact, has to be filtered to preserve the president's ego, the probability of good outcomes diminish. I put the blame on the cowardly Senate Republicans who knew just how much of a liar and narcissist Trump had been proved to be, and who passed on the chance to oust him. They could have spared the country from the harm he does, especially that of silencing or dismissing from their jobs those who tell the truth. Now of course he is insisting that the coronavirus is just another conspiracy to damage his presidency. Get real, Republicans!
11
The official name of the virus is now SARS-CoV-2 and the disease is causes is called COVID-19.
Trump is playing down the coronavirus and it will hurt his credibility. Our government in New Zealand has prepared for a pandemic. There is an 0800 Healthline people can ring if they think they have symptoms, and the government and all news outlets let the public know the phone number they can ring, regularly. There are already advertisements on NZ TV telling people to wash their hands regularly and to cover your mouth when you cough. It's better to be prepared and cautious, than playing it down and brushing it off like Trump is. Our PM got on TV and said that the 1st case of coronavirus has been confirmed. I haven't seen Trump on TV being or saying anything serious about this virus. He's the leader of a superpower nation and needs to take this more seriously and show leadership. There are 13 confirmed cases in California that they know of.
18
At the end of the day it’s just another flu outbreak.
And that’s all it is.
11
Tell the Trump GOP to stop muzzling serious scientists who have spent a lifetime studying these things, while Trump and the GOP have been playing self serving games. Trump couldn't pass a grade school science test if his life depended on it.
50
Mike Pence is now the Zar of the Coronavirus? And that’s supposed to make us feel secure? Yikes!
30
Mike pence in charge! That’s scary? He always looks like he’s on too much Xanax. That’s the best Trump can come up with? I’m a cancer patient and low immune system from chemo and it scares the crap out of me with Pence at the helm. I bet MSK is getting their ducks in order as they usually do:
2
If ever this was a test case for or against a national healthcare service (NHS-Medicare for All (MfA)) in the USA this is it.
We will see how countries that have an NHS/MfA fair versus the only first /or second-world country that does not have an organized public healthcare system.
A test costing $3,270 is far beyond the reach of the average American. If you have insurance your out-of-pocket is going to be $1,000+/-. Most Americans do not have $400 for an emergency. Many will NOT be able to afford to get tested therefore spreading the disease.
The good news is we have Mike Pence in charge so maybe the power of pray needs to be added into the equation!
34
Anyone who is granted a home mortgage can tell you every lender requires the mortgagee to maintain insurance on the property against casualty loss.
This administration's actions to defund routine surveillance against novel pathogens and dismantle the pandemic response teams in place in the NSC and other agencies of government are criminally negligent. And for what? To build a few thousand feet of a pointless wall on our southern border?
Embers are flying through the air. Restore the fire insurance immediately.
22
Maybe Americans (and Republicans) will now begin to see the importance of access to healthcare for all Americans, no exceptions, and humane family and sick day leave policies.
Do you really want to be served in a restaurant by someone who cannot afford to go to the doctor's? Or have your children potentially exposed to a deadly disease because the childcare provider cannot get a day off? Or have anyone, anywhere, decide not to be tested because of the steep costs?
And to those who say how can we possibly afford it, think of the costs (human and financial) we now know will come with this disease. The president may believe this will all "miraculously" disappear, but medical experts -- if they were allowed to speak -- do not appear to agree with him.
69
Am not a 'survivalist' but have, for years, kept a modest supply of emergency food on hand ... and as their 'best by' dates approach, consume and replace them. Also a large supply of drinking water, and modest supply of other critical items. Not a wasted expense, even if no crisis arises.
33
The only study I could find is from China's CDC which examined 44,000 cases. By age, the death rates are as follows:
60's - 3.6%
70's - 8.0%
80 + - 14.8%
When there are other health issues like diabetes, cancer or cardiovascular diseases, the death rate ranges from 6% to 10.5% . The death rate from the common flu is 0.001 or about 1/10th of one percent.
Data from : http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
38
Knowledge is power. There is a lot that we know so far about the Corona virus now than we knew 8 weeks ago. What we do not know is whether truth will prevail or the pandemic of panic and divisiveness will destroy US. For start, NOT A SINGLE AMERICAN has died so far in the US or after returning with the infection or exposure from elsewhere and Corona virus is no more or less dangerous than the Influenza. We are better prepared than 8 weeks ago. When all is said and done, humanity will ultimately win over the virus sooner rather than later. I expect Corona will be in history books in 3 months IF we do all it takes to eradicate the virus. No more than 5,000 humans will have been lost and mostly in China where already close to 3,000 have died.
6
The reason why Trump appointed Pence to head the operation was because he didn’t want those pesky scientists revealing the truth to the American people. The idea is to minimize and cover-up so that the stock market can bolster Trump’s election. We need reporters to protect America more than ever.
139
@Mary
The reason Trump selected Pence to head up the "efforts," was because Trump wanted a fall-guy for when this goes south.
19
Instead of reporting flat numbers and percentages, couldn't you be more specific about who died, not just how many?
What proportion of deaths were older than 90, 85, 80, 75? What proportion of deaths were infants? What proportion of deaths were the result of pre-existing illnesses exacerbated by the virus?
You are scaring the public because you are presenting numbers without context. No one knows if they are large or small. You can do better.
55
@Alix Hoquet Yes! More specific information how many people must become ill and perhaps die before it is more widely understood that this administration has eliminated many programs that help identity illnesses such as this in the mistaken idea of saving money but have given beneficial tax cuts to the very rich.
3
@Alix Hoquet The government will give you the information that they deem important. In the mean time, do as you are told.
2
We will never know how bad it will get. The US as a whole is about to be treated like Puerto Rico after their hurricane. Trump proclaims no problem, no US govt official can say a single word. This will make China's response look like good governance.
106
@JO, Well I imagine Puerto Rico will feel really bead after this outbreak.
I have more than 300 acquaintances, but nowhere near 300 close friends. Facebook doesn't count. There's some saying that if you have a few truly close friends that will always be there for you through thick and thin, you're among the blessed and fortunate.
Who is this guy to be opining about a viral pandemic? Can we please have Opinion pieces on this from actual experts in the fields of medicine, specifically infectious disease and epidemiology and public health? Not the new guy on the block trying to establish his bona fides.
I mean this is really serious stuff, life and death, and the potential to plunge the world economy into recession. Stick to the experts please, pretty please, with sugar on top.
21
I haven’t seen any reports on whether having or carrying the COVID-19 virus conveys immunity. In other words, can someone get the illness twice?
Does the virus lay dormant in the system as do herpes viruses, or can one become re-infected once one recovers from the illness?
Would any immunity in a pregnant wan be conveyed to the embryo or fetus, or to a baby during breastfeeding?
What makes it possible for people to test positive for the virus but remain unsymptomatic? Have any of those people become symptomatic more than 14 days after exposure or after being tested? If so, what triggered the change?
Have any of the virus tests resulted in false-positives? How do we know whether it’s a false positive or just an asymptomatic positive?
35
@MSW A recent article in JAMA reported that infected but recovered Chinese medical workers who passed a RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 later tested positive for the virus again. It is not clear if they were reinfected or had a recurrence of the virus.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452?fbclid=IwAR1vSTPnJ-dUEnUITvut1ghikk37j53VSWSSAInKeE3zsec7ve8nZBbEgS0
From what I have read, false positives are very rare. This is probably due to the way that RT-PCR works. Viral genetic material is amplified through the PCR process and if the genetic material isn't there to be amplified, then it is very unlikely it will show up in the assay.
15
@DWes I read that one family of five, each had a separate strain of the virus. Take it FWIW,
@DWes
But false negatives are apparently fairly common. So people have been released despite infection. That seems more concerning.
1
It is interesting to note that according to China CDC the mortality rate outside the Hubei Region is about 0.4 % and the mortality rate for infected health workers inside Hubei is about 0.3%. This would tend to indicate that the 2.3% general rate inside Hubei is due more to the breakdown of the health care system than the severity of the Corvid-19. Also, the mortality of those in Hubei without comorbidities is 0.9% while the mortality of those with comorbidities averages at 7.0%. This would seem to indicate that the mortality rate will depend on the overall health of a country's population and the degree to which the spread is slowed so that it does not overwhelm health care facilities.
15
@DWes And the Chinese supplied these figures?
1
How bad will it get? Ask the doctors and medical staff at the hospital in Vacaville, CA where they didn't know a woman had the virus and are now quarantined at home for a couple weeks or more leaving the hospital unable to help patients.
A whistleblower told that HHS staff were among those with COVID-19 at the air force base in the area without any protective gear and then flew home to various states across the US.
91
For those of us who are older and with underlying respiratory illnesses, the coronavirus will be a death sentence, which is pretty bad. Frankly, I'd be very upset if I didn't know that Mike Pence was in charge of directing the response.
17
@lydgate I agree with you about the 'death sentence', however, I am very upset that Mike Pence is in charge of directing the response. I'm certain he has no medical, epidemiological or basic common sense to be in charge of this. It's not politics, it's lives.
124
@TenToes I'm sure he was being sarcastic. I can't imagine ten people in America thinking Pence is the right guy for the job.
8
@lydgate "I'd be very upset if I didn't know that Mike Pence was in charge of directing the response." I'm assuming this is sarcasm?
4
How bad will it get?
Tens of millions of Americans have no health insurance and lack the funds to deal with a $400 emergency.
It will get bad.
168
Agree. The discussion that in the US “healthy” people don’t need health insurance is so wrong. We all can break a leg or get a virus. Whether we are 15, 30, or 80 years old. We all will need healthcare at some time... paying huge amounts (or a little) doesn’t change that fact. Public health CARE provided to all helps keep all of us healthy by giving care when it needed, not when we can afford it.
27
@Wilson It would be great to understand what the cost of treating a pandemic is. Will insurance companies raise rates or deductibles? Having had the virus a pre-existing condition? If millions get it and it let's say it's $2000 dollars a person, what would be the effect on the health insurance companies? Would they seek government bailouts? Even if it just cost a family $1000.00 for prevention or treatment, that would basically wipe out any tax break? What about lost income, when you are told to stay home with a cold or virus? Anyway looks like this may change a lot of peoples minds about Medicare for All.
23
So, every government virus related statement must be approved by Pence’s office before being released?
As usual, with this bunch, science counts for nothing. Pathetic!
139
@J That's what prayer is for.
2
Trust me it will only get worse if the media keeps gaslighting and and fomenting hysteria.
7
@Mystery Lits - In point of fact, I can almost guarantee you that when all is said and done, people will be blaming the media for not having done more to get the word out and allow people to understand exactly what we are probably facing.
The more facts that emerge about this virus, the harder I find it to grasp that the only recommendations I'm reading are things like "stay away from people who are sick" (brilliant advice, given that coronavirus spreads before people are symptomatic) and "stock up on critical medications" (that's fine, but what about, you know, everything else you will actually need to weather an extended quarantine?). The folks in Wuhan were able to be kept fed only because of extraordinary effort and coordination on the part of Chinese government to move shipments into the quarantine area. It's ... how shall I say this ... extraordinarily unlikely that our current administration would be able to pull off the same feat.
114
I think you aren't clear on what "gaslighting" means. In this case it would mean dismissing a serious situation. IOW the opposite of fomenting hysteria. It can't be both.
35
@Mystery Lits: The media isn't gaslighting this issue, it's illuminiating it, unlike the administration which is doing its damnednest to deny the basic facts, while placating a president more interested in the stock market than in the health of US citizens.
9