Excellent article that emphasizes the maxim about something old being new again. "All politics is local" matters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_politics_is_local
I saw it action as a young boy in Chicago. Our precinct captain (D) paid a visit to our home leading up to the 1960 election. He asked my parents to vote their conscience regarding the top of the ticket, but also asked them to consider an up and coming young face on the political scene, Mr. Dan Rostenkowski. A personal appeal with low pressure can be very effective. The precinct captain was a neighbor. Personal contact matters.
9
I keep saying it but people insist I'm wrong: Somehow, the Democratic party hierarchy has parted company from the Blacks. All I keep hearing is that that's nonsense, but in fact the party is now responding to something other than Black concerns for social justice and Black empowerment which have been key elements in Democratic ideology for 60 years or more. Blacks are almost not even seen at Democratic events, and when they are they're peripheral. Dems should give this some thought, they may be marginalizing just the voters they most need in 2020, they could even by driving some of them into the arms of their opponents!
11
Black voters have one thing in common with me and every other voter. GOP doesn't care about any of us. Not casting a vote for a Democrat is giving a vote to Trump and GOP.
16
The smartest thing the Democrats should do is focus on Americans.
9
I have complained multiple times about the NYT being an apparatchik for the Democratic Establishment and doing too much opinionating with too many pundits instead of doing real news and real analysis.
THIS article is the kind of journalism that I am happy to pay for.
Thanks!
10
Democrats, the party and the registered, support the corporate overlords. They will do as instructed. People who may vote democratic and are not registered democrats or corporate overlords will be ignored again, and always.
Democrats will check the polls and try to pay lip service to the desires of the people, but they will never follow the will of the people. In that sense they are no different than republicans.
This country deserves Trump and they will get more of him. I see no path forward that does not destroy the nation first. Every politician, nearly anyway, are owned by corporate interests. That means the people are to be further abused.
Anyway, the people fear the socialists more than fascists, it's part of their "education". If they cannot become aware of their own brainwashed state of being then they can never have justice or a leader that cares about them.
Pray and hope America. It will make you feel better for a little while and maybe even longer if you can deny reality indefinitely.
4
This is all fine and good, but what do blacks get for voting Democrat? Our schools are the worst or nearly the worst in the Nation; the criminal justice system still grossly abuse us—we represent 38 percent of the incarcerated while only being 13 percent of the population and law (and wannabe law) enforcement remain able to kill us with near impunity. Not to mention Bill Clinton’s crime bill the resulted in the largest increase in the prison population ever. Trump is the Democrats’ bogey man not ours. We continue to have some of the worst outcomes: life expectancy, infant mortality, cardiovascular disease, cancer, asthma, and human immunodeficiency virus STILL not to mention housing and income! So, I want to know, what will we get for our vote? Please tell me, because history says not much.
15
What you're stating is: Black voters, ARE a Monolith!
Yet every national election we're told Black voters aren't a Monolith despite actual evidence to the contrary! 90% of the votes going Democratic is as Monolithic as you can get!
What 'really' bothers me as a registered Democrat white voter is the abject pandering going on within the Democratic field of candidates, and the Democratic Party as a whole!
4
Very compelling article. Dems should take note!
3
Points well taken, but if black voters didn't get out the vote in the Georgia governor race in 2018 that saw Stacey Abrams defeated, then it is unlikely they will bother to turn out for any democrat president in 2020. Same with hispanic voters.
Trump wins because his white supremacist support base is not apathetic.
4
My guess is that a lot of the 379,000 blacks who didn't vote in 2016 were probably mostly ex-felons. In 2000 I registered 150 voters and only one black male and no females. But I probably had 75 black males who said they were felons and couldn't vote--and that was true of almost every black man I asked to register.
5
Black Leaders Organizing Communities (BLOC) is one of many such important groups. Check out movement.voter.org (the Movement Voter Project) which list over 100 such grass roots organizations, and their BIG 5 Battleground Fund which funds groups in FIVE battleground states: PA, WI, MICH, AZ & FL. The Movement Voter Project (Movement.voter.org) has a Board of experienced organizers who vet these groups, including finances, to ensure that funds are used appropriately.
NONE of the contributions go to administer the movement.voter.project, which uses separate foundation money to do that. The Movement Voter Project is a pass through funder, which allocates the funds to the organizations that are using them the wisest, and where the needs are the greatest.There are 501 c3 (tax deductible) and 501c4 groups.
Most of these groups have YEAR ROUND door to door operations, and they are ALL focused on organizing and mobilizing people of color and young people: the two (overlapping) groups of likely Democratic voters that need PERSON-TO-PERSON CONTACT.
Unlike Democratic Party organizations, these grass roots organizations are independent of any politicians or parties. And they don't collapse the day after an election. They organize to hold local, state, and Congressional elected officials accountable YEAR ROUND. They don't spend their money on TV ads. They spend it on ORGANIZERS from their own communities.
https://movement.vote/funds/big-5-battleground-fund
5
Look at the bar graph in the paragraph “Six states that Matter”. There, in a nutshell, is why we have a president trump.
4
So the answer is getting Black people to polls? Well what about the Democrats doing their job to ensure that polls are open and available and once votes are cast that they are counted properly. VOTER SUPPRESSION IS VERY REAL!! Democrats need to respond to this too!
6
I don’t know any young voter black person who registers as a Democrat; they are all registering as Unaffiliated or Independent; all my life I have thought Republicans were cruel, but Democrats have gone crazy, so which is easier to deal with: cruel or just plain crazy.
5
Democrats appropriate government money that benefits blacks and assuages the Democrats’ consciences. Beyond that, there’s little commitment.
It’s like Republican money donated to churches. The money appropriated by both parties is designed to secure maximum political benefit with minimum follow up and minimum commitment.
White Democrats have never spent the time and the effort needed to mobilize the black community. That has always been a matter left to black community leaders.
3
Remember don't BOO, Vote.
2
I agree with everything in the article. And yet... I can’t imagine a NYT article telling the Republican party how to win elections. Republicans unfairly paint the NYT as liberal-biased... but sometimes you hand them the paintbrush.
6
If Mike Bloomberg truly wants to atone for stop & frisk, this would be a great initiative for him to fund.
5
WOW! What to do right now is crystal clear!! Hello DNC, major donors, every person trying to rescue our country!
2
Best article on politics in the US in the NYT in a really long time. Please write more.
2
“Black Votes Matter” would have been a more succinct title.
2
The Deplorables know only too well the truth about aDemocrats: there all talk and no substance.
3
This looks like an AWESOME place for Mike Bloomberg's money.
We like it,
HEY, MIKEY!!!!
1
There aren't enough black voters. And this data is old. These critical blacks have probably already been gentrified out of all these critical places. Dems need to get white moderates.
1
What a shame that the Democrats can be so certain that black people will vote for them. By doing so, they make an assumption that all blacks are poor and in need of the free handouts that is being offered to them by the Democratic Party candidates. Very short sighted...
2
The salient fact is, that by and large, Americans of most stripes ,don't vote. It is tragic that we must coax, cajole ,entice, implore, beg ,beseech them to exercise their franchise. Forget about voter suppression, it is not the main issue. Indifference and lack of education is the affliction.
3
I still remember Trump saying in 2016 that Democrats have done nothing for the black community over the years and that African Americans should vote Republican because they have "nothing to lose." Now he falsely takes credit for a drop in black unemployment when the more pertinent statistic is that it is highter than that of whites. If Sanders is the nominee, I doubt he will galvanize people of color to turn out in the same numers as they did for Obama.
If Bernie doesn’t want to take Bloomberg’s billion, perhaps Color of Change or a similar group will.
Why would you assume that everyone who is non white will vote Democrat? And why would you assume there aren't a large block of voters who aren't fans of either party, who could just as easily vote GOP or Dem depending on the candidate?
2
Instead of harping on racial profiling, Democrats ought to focus on inner-city areas' developments, where most African Americans live.
We all should make sure there is adequate police patrolling there to bring down petty & more serious violent crimes. The community ought to feel safe to walk around at any time of the day and night.
The talk of "reparations" should be about spending greater & greater amounts of money to build low-cost apartments to house homeless people. Loaning money to start small businesses in such areas. These things will stimulate the economy of inner-city areas, creating more jobs to unemployed youths.
Such activities will reduce crimes, which will at least partly pay for from reduced penal expenses. Increasing the sense of security in inner-city residents is of paramount importance.
As most Democratic presidential candidates voiced, public school funding must be increased in these neighborhoods, to reach a minimum level, in par with the average funding in white neighborhoods. Schools in many cities are falling apart.
With these programs canvasing for voting will work. I would also say, rather than complaining about Voter-ID requirements, Democratic volunteers ought to make sure all black adults are registered to vote.
With greater black & brown participation, Democrats can gain & keep majorities in the House & Senate and in State Houses.
I would add, decouple "Path-to-Citizenship" from immigration reform, to get it passed sooner.
3
As a dues-paying and election-working Democrat in Michigan, I write to point out: we’re on it.
2
Nailed it. It’s more than just putting a minority candidate on the ticket. I am white and just voted for the a black candidate in my county. He called me on the phone and did a little speech here in town. None of the white candidates did that.
3
Excellent article and a reminder that trying to appeal to the so-called moderate Republicans is a total waste of time and energy.
2
This seems like an enormous amount of potential voters. But the process is quite labor intensive. Why do these voters require such an intensive process for a short time at the polls? It is puzzling in the city of Philadelphia where there is mayor friendly to blacks and a new black police chief.and large areas of the city being nearly exclusively black.
2
As far as restoring Florida's ex-felons' rights to vote - it will go to the Florida Supreme Court which lost its last 3 liberal judges when they retired due to term limits. This enabled DeSantis to immediately replace them with ultra-conservative ones. So, the answer is, no they won't get their right to vote back which is an outrage in so many ways.
However, and this might not be my place to say as a white person, but there is a tremendous amount of wealth in the black community among entertainers, business people and sports icons. Why can't they step up to the plate and help out? Black philanthropy could in this case actually help in ways unimaginable, something far beyond the usual of endowments and grants and so forth.
Black athletes, black entertainers, black business people and black icons (Oprah, do you hear me?) could actually impact an entire election in an epic way. This is about a swing state where voters are being purged mercilessly as we speak, where voting machines aren't being audited as they should, where a lot goes on that's indefensible. Empowering over a million ex-felons to get their voting rights back by paying their fines would be a heroic act the likes were never seen before.
3
Good plan. Bloomberg should fund it for many reasons even if he doesn't get the nomination. He said he would support whatever candidate the Democrats put forward and empowering the black vote will not only help defeat Trump and Republicans down ballot but will increase the power of black people to get a bigger piece of the pie. Might be a good way for Bloomberg to finally atone for "stop and frisk."
I find the graphs and statistics that support this argument a bit reductive.
The most glaring "conclusion" is that if all the registered African American voters who did not vote in 2016 had voted, they would have voted for a Democrat. Possibly true, but an assumption.
However, the more important statistic is the one for other voter groups; that is, registered voters who did not vote in 2016, like:
Plumbers
Welders
Nurses
Electricians
Social Workers
Clerks
Receptionists
Doctors
Accountants
Bricklayers
Hospice Volunteers
Janitors
Crane Operators
Longshoremen
Policemen...
Maybe these workers were African Americans or Asian or White or Latino or ... fill in the blank, but the important issues for all these groups are generally the same and not related to group identity.
Its the kitchen table issues stupid, not the identity group.
7
I forget where I saw this, but there was at least one Republican get together where they actually PAID blacks to vote (or more precisely, for their vote). Let's counter that with something more democratic. Mr. Bloomberg, can you please pay bail for those who can't vote in Florida because their bail is still due? Is that possible? (Or is there a "Go Fund Me?)
1
Very illuminative article. So is the does the Democratic Party lack intelligent leadership who are probably aware of this data but did nothing about it or do they think voting just "happens?"
I suspect they are also lazy and disorganized from the local all the way to the national organization.
2
Yes and what about those people who live mostly in the South and are on the fence. They are notorious for being against gays, African Americans, women, socialists. They would prefer a Republican nominee. The Democrats have one. He's Mike Bloomberg. Only in this extraordinary time would I propose this candidate but would people seriously consider who these people would vote for other than Trump. Think about it.
1
After reading the letters: It is not about the issues.
It is not about paying people to go to door.
It is about knocking on each house door on a block. Ask. Has anyone asked you or your neighbors to be a block captain and meet with your neighbors to discuss our concerns and needs or be a precinct committeeman? Or even help write the county platform?
Or have the parties taken you for granted, assuming you will support the Democrat candidates or hoping you will forget it and just stay home?
How about helping us set up a block party meeting to discuss our needs and issues and candidates?
And as you get block captains ask one of the most likely to be best to become that precinct’s committeeman.
And then get good PCs and block captains to go to adjacent precincts and recruit block captains and, if needed, effective PCs. And within months adjacent districts.
It is a rare Black or Asian or Hispanic or Native American nor anyone who has ever been asked to help develop the needs and issues and to help organize their block and precinct and district.
I can guarantee you if done with courteous, dignified warmth, intelligence, respect, and courtesy, and if dudes are made available that you will find most eligible adults voting for your party and your candidate.
And to insure it, write in clear English a small pamphlet for how to be a block captain and how to hold hold meetings and develop the issues.
Did it for 19 precincts in a largely Black district. Got the vote out!
3
I've been a lifelong Dem and this article makes me physically ill. If we don't develop and execute a GOTV plan then we deserve another 4 yrs of trump.
2
What institution do black voters trust more? Their churches.
Just as the Republicans have forged close connections with white evangelical churches, so MUST the Democratic party that needs to work very closely with the leaders of black churches.
Collaboratively, the state/county Democratic party should develop plans in addressing the bread and butter issues of the black community. Policies that would bring back many manufacturing jobs that have been off-shored by corporations; where necessary impose (temporary) tariffs on off-shored products that are imported for local consumption. Develop plans to fund free enriching, mentally stimulating childcare that would prepare the kids to excel in elementary schools. Organize retired suburban teachers and other educated individuals to offer free after school academic coaching in STEM subjects. Develop plans for community based policing against drug dealers and gangs.
In short, work with the black church leaders in providing practical, workable solutions to uplift the black communities, Motivate the potential black voters to believe in and have a stake in the political economic system; provide them a reason to vote for a true Democrat - not just empty slogans of hope and change.
28
The writer is wrong about the value of new voters. A new voter is worth a half a vote. A voter flipped is a full vote, like in sports, it's one more for you and one less for them. But that would require changing minds, which is too terrible to think about.
It's easier to change nothing and hope for new voters.
7
Pretty much like the Democratic Party functioned in Chicago for years. 50 wards divided each into about 50 precincts, each with a house to house precinct captain. A highly successful organizing model. Turned around and used by Harold Washington to beat the machine. There still today, is virtually no Republican Party in Chicago.
7
Dr. Balasubramanian is working with outmoded and ancient data about the leftward tilt of African Americans. It may be such in the K Street lobby shops and university intelligensia, but black voters have shifted toward the GOP and this President in sufficient numbers to make most Democratic politicos in the know quake in their shoes. Three recent opinion polls, -- Marist, Rassumussen, and Emerson -- have black support for the president up near 30%. And why wouldn't it be? Police shootings are down, incomes are up, jobs are up, black unemployment is down, and this president actually enforces the immigration laws that are inducing companies to hire docile illegal immigrants instead of black workers. The NYT recently did the story on the chicken processing plant in Georgia where blacks took jobs that had been done by illegal immigrants. If Trump can pull even 20% African-American support, he wins.
16
Great article although it is inherently troubling that effort should be made to get turnout from those who you want turnout from (but not those you don't...). Also, why is it that sanders and stein supporters get blamed (in this very paper!) for 2016? Surely numbers like this should put that to bed?
4
This is why I think Stacy Abrams should be the VP pick. I think she will both help the party be more relatable to more voters and she will be able to help us fight voter suppression, because that's what she's doing now. Put her in as VP and put her in charge of making voter suppression a thing of the past.
14
The problem is not that the Democrats are ignoring certain Black voters but, rather, that they are ignoring all voters, as they (with the so-far exception of Bloomberg) are entirely absorbed in their extremely effective circular firing squad.
To win an election you lost last time, you have to change some minds. You don't change minds by telling people what should be their values and priorities rather than listening to the voters and speaking to their values and priorities as they define them, not how you, a candidate, defines them or wishes the voters would define them.
4
Here I thought that this was about Democrats trying not to scare off the centrist majority with the likes of Bernie and Warren.
You know, seek out the best people regardless of identity.
Wrong, again.
2
For many reasons, including the arguments advanced in this column, the Democrats need to draft a truly charismatic graduate of Princeton and the Harvard Law School: Michelle Obama.
She is eminently qualified to win and to lead.
4
@Mack
Nepotism alone should doom Michelle Obama as a choice. This is a country of over 310 million people. We do not have to keep picking presidents from the same small group of elites. Bush jr shouldn't have been president and HRC shouldn't have been a candidate. The concentration of power is a real problem and proposing candidates that are family members of other elected officials is deeply troubling.
3
Living in Wisconsin in 2016, it might have helped if the Democrat nominee just visited the state. Get out the vote campaigns used to be a given with Democrats (I still remember Spike Lee and other celebrities reminding us to do so). An investment to register and get out the vote must be a priority in 2020 no matter who the nominee is.
7
There is only one candidate still running that reflexively speaks to issues in a way that demonstrates a deep and clear understanding of how they affect the lives of African Americans, diverse as we are.
As a black man, when I hear her words I feel understood. Then I read the words of columnists, in this very paper, who characterize those overtures as "pandering".
All politics are identity politics. So long as it's white identity politics, it's just - well - politics. Everything else..? Pandering.
I am reminded of the saying, when you've lived a life of privilege for so long, true equality can feel like oppression.
Perspective is everything.
6
Really get tired of these midwestern and southern states driving everything. I get the electoral college and swing state stuff. But honestly the biggest city (my home town) and the biggest state (where I live now) are simply only good as banks for candidates. This system is crashing of it own weight.
5
This is why the white Democratic nominee, whoever it may be, name a Black running mate at the convention, or earlier if the nomination is certain.
Stacy Abrams or Corey Booker would be terrific Vice-Presidential candidates.
Further, the nominee needs to give Blacks, Latino's and other minorities more chips in the game of governing the nation.
That means asking Kamala Harris to serve in the cabinet as Attorney General, Susan Rice as Secretary of State, Andrew Yang at Commerce, and Julian Castro at Homeland Security and others as needed.
These stalwarts would join the ticket to campaign, especially in the areas this article points out as targets where Blacks in high government office, if the ticket is elected, are making the case to their Black constituencies.
This kind of targeted campaigning, by the top of the ticket, and cabinet officers appointed to give Blacks more clout in the government could shake out a torrent of new minority voters.
Barak and Michelle Obama will also likely get involved to energize the old coalition that elected him twice.
Democats can win big, turn out Trump and flip the Senate if they are smart about the fall campaign. That means nominating the right candidate.
Biden has the best relationships and name recognition with Black voters. But Bernie is winning over young Blacks and Latino's as well.
Whoever wins the nomination needs to make sure they campaign in these Black swing districts strongly. A little help could go a long way.
9
@Dennis Black people and politicians aren't condiments or side dishes. (surgeon) Ben Carson is the HUD secretary (you know, public housing, black people, of course)...How is that working out?
Candidates need to demonstrate an understanding of the intersectionality of policy and nuanced black experiences.
Warren gets it, can articulate it, and has the activist support to turn out these voters.
1
An even larger demographic are 'white' voters. It's all very well to reassure minority groups that policies will be inclusive and beneficial. It's also just as necessary to reassure the majority that the goal is equality and not reprisal.
7
The goal is for equality. It is far-right bogus “news” media that tells you otherwise.
1
@Corinne First of all, you live in Tennessee. Your state voted for Trump and will likely do so again regardless of who the Democratic nominee is. Therefore, sorry, but your opinion is of little use here. If you dislike Trump, the best thing you can do is organize your fellow Trump-haters in your state to vote for the Democratic nominee this November.
1
I'm aware that some big, big liberal donors have been spending a lot of money to turn Texas blue, and it seems to be working, albeit slowly, for a number of different reasons.
Certainly there are billionaires (or even those with a mere few hundred million) who are in tech, or know people in tech, that can break this down into thousands of data bits, to find out what works best to get people to the polls - something that can be a non-stop, year-round project. Imagine what a few hundred grand a year in, say, Philadelphia could do if spent efficiently.
Wake up, rich Democrats.
6
MT,
Sure, it’s real name is “open borders” and in a minimum of 18 years you have a new legal American citizen with the right to vote and who wants Medicare for all, especially for my mother and my father who got me across the border before my birth.
The problem is not that the Democrats are ignoring certain Black voters but, rather, that they are ignoring all voters, as they (with the so-far exception of Bloomberg) are entirely absorbed in their extremely effective circular firing squad.
To win an election you lost last time, you have to change some minds. You don't change minds by telling people what should be their values and priorities rather than listening to the voters and speaking to their values and priorities as they define them, not how you, a candidate, defines them or wishes the voters would define them.
15
Well said. I agree. Learning on the job is key and a reflection of character. Some of the candidates haven’t budged in years.
1
Wayne, it sounds like you’re describing the Republicans on so many issues.
Let me throw in lots more on protecting Social Security and Medicare as the universal appeal to all who are likely to actually vote of any color. The safety net's loss is a major fear.
8
Yowza. I can see from the responses that this resonates with people, but I wonder whether they'd appreciate the magnitude of the intrusion this represents:
"This introductory interaction would be an unhurried conversation about the block team and its goals of building power and turnout, and it would gather the names of all voting-eligible people living at the residence. This data would then be reconciled with the voter file to categorize every eligible black resident by registration status and voting history. "
I'm not in the right demographic, but I definitely wouldn't be having that "unhurried conversation" with a nosy parker. I don't understand why anyone would. Seen from the perspective of the target, this is not appealing at all. Enough data are collected about us without our knowledge or consent without facilitating it.
How about finding out why people aren't voting in the first place? Solve the problem at its source, instead of doing a Big Brother number on communities.
1
The article looks at the electorate, sees that overall, it is assured that nearly all will vote as previously, so only a small proportion are critical. Except, there is no reason to assume that when so many who voted for a Democrat and a liberal four years later voted for a Republican and an unprincipled one, that anything can be taken for granted.
Most eligible voters who don't vote would be potentially Democratic voters. These voters tend to have low incomes. There doesn't seem to be any obvious way to greatly increase the turnout of these potential voters. I think Obama had the best results but probably because he is black himself. Therefore, the key in the swing states will be getting those groups that do tend to vote in high numbers to vote for the Democrat. That means getting independents and moderate Republicans to vote for the Democratic candidate. While Bernie Sanders can't get those voters he can get what are called "Bernie or bust" voters who are mainly younger white people who don't vote. The problem is while they would help Sanders they probably wouldn't vote for Democrats running for the House and Senate most of whom they would regard as "corporate Democrats" so the Democrats would lose in the both houses of Congress even though Sanders might win the presidency. Clearly a candidate is needed who could win the presidency and help win Congress, Therefore candidates such as Biden and Klobuchar would be much better choices. Even Warren might be able to win the presidency and help with Congress.
And they need to keep the Congress in 2022.
Sounding like a broken record here, but it's not just about the Presidency. A Democratic president with ambitious ideas that take this country in a different direction will not succeed without a Senate majority. I'm sure of the 200+ bills sitting on McConnell's desk, a portion of them would benefit many different communities in this country, including the needs a diverse cross-section of the Black community. But they sit now, and will continue to sit, as long as the Republicans are in power.
6
@Richard Frauenglass,
True, Identity Politics is dissecting the country into fractions; the idea of being an American is that all people are treated the same but there in lies the problem: politicians are corrupt, divisive and really do not have the best interest of the voters and their constituents are often deceived; their voters should be willing to compromise with other groups; equality and unanimity is the American spirit.
Away with all lobbyists in Congress and 12 years term limits for all Congressional Representatives.
3
Yes, professional lobbyists should not exist. We need terms limits for Supreme Court justices as well.
1
Isn't this exactly the vote that Bernie Sanders is hoping/planning to turn out? The general election has not happened yet; let's see what his game plan is then. I expect that these black and other non-white communities are going to be getting a lot of attention.
2
This is a plan put forth by white people to benefit white people using the black vote.
5
@M
Maybe you are correct. Maybe the authors are white, or brown or black or a mix. BUT voting CAN HELP EVERYONE! It is all of our responsibility to our society to take part and NOT allow a few awful people to take over by our apathy. I can be a brown person or a pink or black person but that does not mean that I don’t want the world to be better for you, too, whoever you are.
2
Interesting take. As much as I like the door-to-door model (Community Organizer), the question is why are blacks in these areas not voting now? What about long poll lines, and/or voter restrictions, and voter purges? What about using absentee ballots? Your supposition that the progressives didn't come up with an exciting enough program for African Americans is not borne out by historical voter turn out numbers, which range from 49-63% since the '30's, the height of the progressive era. Your charts are also a bit confusing as you list 367K African-Americans who did not vote in PA, but later say only 350K were eligible. Complete data should only refer to those eligible. Nonetheless, it's clear that a few hundred million dollars less on tv ads and a few million more on old fashioned talking to people would yield higher turnouts and at a lower cost. Now, if only the leading candidate's message was more about hope and healing, and less about anger and resentment, all this might happen.
2
Well, well, well, I guess black lives DO matter after all.
13
Great article, but this statement is completely false. Every eligible voter who stayed at home is also responsible for their choice.
"Nobody but the 63 million Americans who voted for him bears responsibility for that."
2
There are people, regardless of sex, age, color, religion, etc that just don't care about politics and politicians. They don't want to watch political shows, the news, or listen to debates. They get their news in dribs and drabs, from online caption headings, overheard bits of discussions at the office, a comment from a friend or spouse. They never gain a full understanding of the issues and don't desire to do so. And if they did pay any attention, they may not have the ability to do a thoughtful analysis of what they've read or heard.
We have to admit it, a lot of people are very apathetic.
1
Whoa! This stats are as exciting (for 2020) as they are maddening (Trump is sitting in the White House)!
2
Lawyermom,
I lived in NYC most of my life from the time of being a poor kid to entering the time of entering middle class; every poor person I knew who was poor and lived in NYC knew the voting system is RIGGED.
I never trusted the political class in NYC because they were obviously corrupt, dishonest and just plain in it for monitory and political gain.
It starts with denying Unaffiliated voter a voice in elections.
Politicians are a group of people who always have an angle that benefits self over service.
4
This seems to be very insightful. My guess is that Mike Bloomberg's campaign is already aware of this. The other Democrats? Not so much.
5
BRILLIANT analysis.
Hey Mr. Bloomberg! How about throwing some of your money around to make this happen? It might not affect 2020 as much as you would like, but it would drive a stake through the party of Trump's vile heart and also give the African American community a stronger voice in Democratic politics.
This Bernie supporter would love to see both!
5
Good article. Any suggestions for how to stop the Florida Governor from imposing a virtual poll tax on the 1.1 million voters who have served their time and by constitutional Amendment overwhelmingly approved for restoration of their right to vote by the citizens of Florida??
That would swing Florida.
85
@Mary I would like see one of the billionaires who say they want to defeat Trump pay the poll tax in Florida for these voters. As you said, it could very well swing the election.
15
@Mary I don't know how these things get passed. I do not support convicts losing their voting rights at all. But if they are unable to vote while in jail they should be eligible immediately after they walk out. I don't support probation or parole either. When they leave jail it should be as if it never happened.
@Mary The court decided that making them pay fines and restitution was a form of poll tax and struck down the law. Of course, it will be appealed--what I don't know is if we can register former felons before the entire thing has played out in the courts. I hope we can move forward now.
2
I love this proposal. It clarifies who are key non-voters for Democrats and it suggests a way to convert non-voters to voters- your recruitment idea. I bet if you worked out a hypothetical budget for your recruitment idea, the budget would strengthen your overall proposal. It could be a major step toward increasing Democratic Party election wins if party leaders and investors, including small donors, agreed to fund your idea, ASAP. A budget, quantifying likely costs and returns on investment, could help seal the deal.
1
If you can pay the block organizers, why not pay the people the organizers come in contact with? Like pyramid selling, reward everyone who talks to someone else. The message is "Vote," not "Vote for the Democrats." Help people understand the arithmetic. If you do want Trump, don't vote, because the lack of your vote helps elect him. If you don't want Trump, vote for anybody else of any party you would like. That should be the message.
1
If Democrats want black votes, the party needs to be a lot blacker than it is. Dems have to provide deeper, stronger incentives by empowering a lot more black people within the party at all levels. They have to encourage more black people to run for elections, and provide more room for younger black professionals in the party's administrative structure. The current lineup of candidates shows how deeply white the party truly is in its consciousness and vision. This author's analysis and strategy are smart, but I'm dissatisfied with the way the article positions black voters as people outside the party who need to be talked into going out to vote.
2
Heading for a repeat of 2016 where Democrats ignored Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan because they thought they were in the bag and ended up losing the election by a slim margin in those states while winning the popular vote? Sounds like it to me. But what do you expect forma party with a 40 year losing record. Only Democratic winners were outside the party apparatus: Obama and Clinton. We need to replace the Democratic machine root and branch.
9
I detest identity politics, Vote for the person whom you believe will be best for the nation while paying attention to parochial issues.
3
You are aware that Republican politics these days is pretty much all tribal identity politics, right?
1
If Mssrs. Bloomberg and Steyer would be willing to divert some of their vast resources to this Black neighborhoods voting effort, this could be a winning formula. Better still, to get more immediate voting potential for the Democratic party as a whole, it would be great if these two gentlemen bit the bullet and concede their bid for the presidency and devote full energy, talent, and finances toward this effort. More important, both men already have the basic infrastructure in place to make a sizable dent on most of these neighborhoods, which makes the transition all the easier.
That's the most rewarding way to use their resources over the next six months. Come on, Mike and Tom. Be realistic. And take one for the Party.
2
Nice idea. Unfortunately, pretty naive. "State parties have a tremendous amount to gain: They could more effectively mobilize voters for priority issues cycle after cycle and have a vastly improved way to listen to marginalized voters and incorporate their ideas and frustrations into the party's platform." There's no indication whatever that the Democratic leadership is in any way interested in "listening to marginalized voters", let alone incorporating "their ideas and frustrations into the party's platform". Their disinterest in doing so is on prominent display at the moment in the primary debates. They are very happy picking the low-hanging fruit - read, educated suburban professionals of whatever color - since doing so is cheaper and doesn't challenge the party's embrace of neoliberal capitalist economics and its program of austerity for "marginalized voters". The overwhelming majority of non-voters are working class people, a group the party has little interest in representing. Assuming the DNC want's to actually represent their interests flies in the face of everything the Party has been doing for the last 40 years.
4
If groups want to spend their money this way, fine. However, large urban areas tend to have better transit options and longer voting hours than rural areas. I have lived in NYC, Philly, and the DC suburbs. I don’t understand why people in these areas, where voting is easy, don’t bother.
1
This article is solid gold. If Bloomberg wants to spend $100M defeat Trump, this is how to do it. Turn out the black vote. The failure to do this was, indeed, the reason for HRC's loss. (And that's on her campaign and on state-by-state (R) disenfranchisement programs, not on black people.)
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/
In particular, in Wisconsin, black voter turnout dropped, from 78% in 2012 to 49% in 2016. And 2012 was no outlier; black turnout in WI was in the 70%-80% range in 2000, 2004, and 2008 as well.
5
I don't want more black voters, white voters, latin voters... I want citizens (ALL citizens) to take part in the civic responsibility in voting. I want informed voters, not cattle to support a particular party, because of their identity (as this article seems to assume that black people are all a Dem voting block), which in and of itself is pure racism. Let me be unflinchingly clear, I literally don't care what color or flavor of person you are, I will not give you one ounce of credibility or favoritism because of your melanin (or lack there of), you are held to the same opportunity and responsibility to vote as anyone is. The attempt here to isolate black people and speak to them as though they are some sort of monolith is incredibly pejorative and teeters on open racism.
9
Why should I care about "maximizing turnout?" That in itself is racist.
People will vote if they want to. If they don't, that's their business.
6
Wishing for all Americans to feel enfranchised doesn’t seem racist to me; it seems American.
3
Excellent! Let's do this!!
2
“As God is my witness, if I have anything to do with it, Trump will never win Georgia again.” —said in a Scarlett O’Hara voice.
Really I think Georgia is within reach. Imagine someone such as Stacey Abrams on the ticket with Biden. Easily would carry it. I’m not going to talk about Sanders, because I’m still mad about seeing his wife on Russian state tv talking about how it’s nice that republicans can cross over to vote in the democratic primary in South Carolina. And I don’t think he could take Georgia anyway. But a moderate would take it easily if they could rebuild the Obama coalition, and your wonderful charts back that up. This is an important analysis you’ve provided. Thank you.
2
I'm Hungarian-Scottish-Dutch-German-American, Got anything for me?
I think that most citizens want the same things. I take offense at all political pandering to any specific group. I think doing so is racism.
7
Obviously everything the writer says is correct. It has been obvious for years. So why haven't the Democrats done this?
My answer is that the DNC insiders simply care more about their own power than they do about winning elections. Howard Dean tried working along similar (but not identical) lines in his 50 state strategy, which aimed to build up state parties and make sure that the Democrats contested elections everywhere, even in counties where they had not recently been strong. There were many successes.
Rahm Emmanuel and the DNC quashed Dean's initiative and returned to the failed strategy of investing only in swing states and showing up in the states only every four years. As a result, the Party decimated its local infrastructure and lost 900 state and federal legislative seats under President Obama. No organizing structures on the ground, no farm team from which to groom candidates for higher office -- and no ability to stop Republican gerrymandering when states redrew district lines.
Tom Perez and the current crop of DNC insiders must go. We need to build up state parties and do the ground level organizing needed to counter Republican money, Republican money, and Republican cheating. Or we will continue to lose, lose, and lose again.
Meanwhile, supporting new initiatives and people like Stacey Abrams would be excellent first steps.
17
The clear implication of this data is that the Democratic Party needs a permanent, bottom-up organization to have a two-way communication with their natural potential voters. That has not been happening. One must ask why this is the case.
My answer is that the DNC isn’t really interested in the opinions of those voters. It is more interested in telling them what they can’t have and pandering to them on hot button, non-economic issues that don’t threaten their donors.
My hope is that Bernie Sanders’s current outreach efforts and non-corporate donor strategy will succeed enough this year to bludgeon them into a new era. Unlike Obama, Sanders does not intend to disband his outreach or his movement after the election, win or lose. That will keep the pressure on the establishment to take meaningful action.
21
If Black and Latino’s want a real say, bring a record number of voters to the polls, something no one can ignore, or at least if they do, they do so at their own peril. Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar, minorities in their own right, are no less worthy of your vote than Biden or Sanders . The rest of the free world will be holding our collective breath for you to do the right thing and vote blue no matter who all the way down the ballot. Don’t wait for someone to give you a seat at the table, you claim your seat demonstrating your demographic matters and can change the outcome of elections. This article only proves that point. You want to make a real difference; be the demographic that keeps the house and retakes both the presidency and the senate. Only then will real change begin to happen, and maybe, just maybe, it never gets this bad again.
2
@Brighter Suns
While those voters certainly should vote against Trump given the clear and present danger, it is far less clear that those voters will gain much if anything from Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Biden for that matter. This would be more a vote of outright desperation than for any real hope of reform.
It is a sad argument that Democrats are making that one of their corporate donor androids should be supported because the alternative is a dictator. They should be able to do much better than that.
4
Why is this aimed at just black voters? Don't we want ALL American citizens to vote ?
Shouldn't the message be to get everyone out to exercise their right to vote.
Why play identity politics on such a key universal issue?
4
@Norville T. Johnston
Because black people are the only group that consistently votes for Democrats and in substantial numbers to turn an election. Every other group overwhelmingly votes Republican (whites) or splits its votes between Republican and Democrat in a way that makes their votes less reliable for Democratic politicians. That is why identity politics matter. Trump made it to the WH on a wave of white identity politics and that is seen as acceptable but it is somehow bad if anyone wants to focus on black voters. Double standard much?
4
I wonder why they specify white women "with college degrees." There are black and Latino people with college degrees as well. Does that affect their voting patterns? What about black women with college degrees? I'm not questioning the overall trend, but I just don't see how this is a useful method of comparison.
2
There’s a very stark contrast in the voting patterns of Whites with and without college degrees. That pattern isn’t present in other demographics.
6
@Dora
Especially white women with college degrees. The men still vote for Republicans.
You forgot to mention that Rev. William Barber and his Poor People's Campaign has been working for years to bring out the black and brown vote. Rev. Barber is aware that just a 2-10% increase in voters can swing elections.
10
The author assumes that those who did not vote have the same preferences of those who voted. An obvious case of selection bias
7
@MS Your point is well taken, but elections are won by strategic voting. Every household should have that debate, but arrive at a singular vote if you want your vote to really matter. If even a spouse votes differently, you may as well stay home; your vote was just cancelled out. Now more than ever, strategic voting will make a difference.
1
They'll vote for Trump because of the economy.
3
@Ryan Bingham No...no we will not.
How about changing the way the Presidency operates? Instead of an imperial presidency make the Vice President a boots on the ground person with a staff that addresses real issues. This staff would come from the grassroots. No pros, no celebrities. An actual citizen.
The VP needs to get out with Senators and Reps to address issues in diverse communities across America. Stop using real people as mere photo ops. I would love to see aging Ken Doll Pence go out and pick fruit for a day in Delano or spend a day digging coal. Spend a week with an African American family. No cameras....no press....just real human interaction.
1
I honestly don’t know what else can be said to motivate people. Donald Trump is a danger to everyone - to our children, to our healthcare to our safety. How could anyone not vote against these republican criminals?
10
@Deirdre
White people are experiencing danger for the first time and this is why they say "Anyone but Trump." Black people have always experienced danger but that was considered business as usual. Now we are being excoriated to vote for Stop and Frisk Bloomberg whose policy was not that bad, he had a blind spot, he made mistakes, etc. Sorry, no. Trading Trump for Bloomberg works only for white people, not for black people. There goes that "business as usual" thing again.
13
@Lynn in DC
No, there are lots of us white male 50+ Democrats who won't vote for Bloomberg either.
The whole article is about people not voting.
But it also assumes that all blacks vote Democrat all the time.
Thus your core basic idea is flawed and all other theories are ridiculous because you based them on an assumption.
I keep seeing charts that says all Latins vote Democrat. That is a lie too.
Sorry, try again.
6
Mike Bloomberg was never really sorry for stop and frisk. He's just sorry for how things turned out.
4
Bloomberg is not sorry for how it worked and how he had black support in the mayoral elections. I believe he regrets the extent. I also believe that many people of all colors are glad that the city is safer. I understand why people resent him for that. However Bloomberg is a person that gets things done. For a city like NYC to drop its crime rate is truly remarkable and to oppose the NYPD after 9/11 saw them running in to the WTC would have garnered no support.
To start a program of no smoking in a city like NYC of all places and to copied has probably saved more lives and health care costs than you can imagine. The large sodas to be prohibited in a city that allows everything increased awareness of the dangers of something that leads to obesity which is the biggest health cost after smoking was an outstanding effort. Remembering the “FORD to NY, Drop Dead” Daily News headline in 1975, it is remarkable that the city had a budget surplus and grew to its largest population ever at the same difficult ti in its history.
Investing in the first new subway line in almost a century and attracting major investment in NY as a tech hub will pay dividends in years to come.
Under his administration 3000 NYPD members were allocated for terror prevention and travel the world over to keep the terrorists across the sea knowing that he could count on political winds to harm the city.
All this while he had to get virtually everything through the State Government in Albany. Amazing
4
@Mark
Agree!
The article makes -no- mention of the many obstacles to black voting, e.g. disenfranchisement from a felony conviction, barriers to registration. More important, it omits the reasons why black voters -don't- vote, e.g. dissatisfaction with a Democratic Party which does little for it, yet appeals to it at election time. And, as others have noted, it lumps all African-Americans together, ignoring its diversity. Finally, for those who -do- vote, it ignores the Republican-based gerrymandering from the last census that dilutes the power of their vote.
That said, asking people to vote for you is necessary, but not sufficient to win their vote. Ask away.
When it comes to disparities of income and wealth, many candidates have gone after the billionaires, for obvious reasons, but few (I believe only Sanders and Warren) have also focused on the gaps of income and wealth between whites and non-whites. Perhaps a little more discussion of that is in order. And, once candidates on the stump slip into the "if elected, I will spend $X on Y" mode, it might be useful if they relate that to reducing those gaps.
I have yet to hear -any- candidate assert that one purpose of the tax code, beyond funding government, is to redistribute income so as to redress income and wealth gaps, much less assert that those at both extremes need the greatest changes.
10
Clearly this analysis is the product of a political data junkie. Which means the data is interesting and a mathematical model can be constructed to support the author's contention which is probably right.
Which is interesting but misses the key issue.
The key issue is what is necessary to get people off their comfortably ignorant behinds to vote in elections which directly affect their quality of life. That is the issue.
That is the issue for non-voting white folks as much as it is for non-voting black folks as much as it is cross-ethnic young voters as much as it is for just about every under-voting socio-demographic segment.
Seriously, we've heard every excuse imaginable for not voting. Many of us used some of them at various points in our lives; eg, too busy, what difference does it make, etc. Most of us learn at some point that if we want to affect how our country is governed, we have to get off our comfortable behinds and vote.
If the thought of another four years of republican and Trump rule is not enough to motivate non-voting people, then we deserve the fate we seem to drift toward.
4
This is one reason to nominate Bernie Sanders. He's the only candidate with a massive volunteer base able to knock doors in hard to reach areas.
20
The efforts to turn out the black vote should also include turning out the brown vote, turning out the Muslim vote, turning out the Asian and Native American vote. That said, in the final analysis it is the energy all these voters want to expend on a candidate they believe in who most espouses their causes. If they do not perceive any of the candidates to be that person, it is likely that many will not make the effort to turn out at all. Sadly this is a reality. One need only talk to members of my family and friends.
8
We have (rightly) criticized Republicans for failing to consider the long-term impact of their radical intransigence during the Obama administration and political libertinism under Trump, and we agonize over their ability to maintain so much power despite rapid demographic changes that favor Democrats. However, a lot of it is our fault.
The past decade of Republican dominance, even while Obama was president, is the result of decades of planning: from the conservative “originalist” law-school-to-federal-court pipeline (spearheaded by the Koch-funded Federalist Society) to the unified state-by-state, city-by-city, precinct-by-precinct strategy you make voting more difficult for perceived Democratic constituencies. (They did the same thing for abortion: death by a thousand cuts.)
Instead of countering with our own long-term strategy—maximizing turnout of the unreliable nonwhite and youth votes—we complacently assumed changing demographics would be enough to take care of the GOP without us having to lift a finger. We also gerrymandered for short-term gain, which came back to bite us when the Tea Party cleaned up in the 2010 elections, just in time for the Census and reapportionment.
Republicans outmaneuvered us. Worse, we’ve had ten years to develop our own strategy and utterly failed.
7
"When the 2022 elections for senators and governors are in full swing, block teams will have been able to refine their strategies even further." So happy someone, besides the GOP, is thinking ahead.
1
But DNC calls you only for donations.
The Democratic Party structure is not set up for organizing at the block level.
May be a new Dem party will arise after the 2020 debacle completely decimates the current system.
The hard, persistent, and serious work of organizations like BLOC in Milwaukee is inspirational, and it is likely to be the most strategically significant dimension of what unfolds between now and November, no matter who wins the Democratic nomination. Whatever else you may be doing politically this election cycel, supporting their work should be on you to-do list.
9
The areas in this country with these vast non voting numbers are in areas with decades of hard work to purge registrations, consolidate voting areas, shortening voting hours, place numerous voting machines in low population GOP voter rich areas and few machines in democratic areas. Creating long lines and hours waiting to vote. High standards to register and/or accept absentee or provisional ballots and then discard the votes.
Helping the voter to get to the poll and cast a vote that will be counted is what will win elections.
11
The truth is that most politicians aren't enthusiastic about a big boost in voter turnout. And this is very true among black politicians.
A low turnout means that the political machine that has been in place for years can control most outcomes. Large numbers of new voters change that equation.
Experienced community organizers can tell you how to organize a campaign.
Organizing is hard work. It requires a long view and an early start. It requires the development of local issues and local leadership and it has to link the local with the national. And it has to focus on issues, not just personalities.
In 2016 House and Senate campaigns spent 1.6 billion. Hillary's camping cost 121 million. The Democratic Party raised hundreds of millions of dollars for these campaigns, but how much have they spent on grass roots issue organizing, voter registration, voter education and voter turn out?
How much money did the give to the NAACP, the ACLU, the Center for Constitutional Rights and groups like the Equal Justice Society?
These organization have been fighting the good fight in the court to prevent GOP voter suppression for years. The Democratic Party benefits from their efforts but leaves them to beg for foundation grants to wage these struggles.
Black voters can win the election for the Democrats Party but so far it looks like they might have to do so in spite of, rather than because of the Party's efforts.
If Dem's are serious, this needs to change.
12
These statistics come as something of a surprise to me. I worry that they come as a complete surprise to the Democratic establishment.
10
This piece claims that more than 30 percent all voters "consistently don't vote in presidential elections." Unfortunately, the hyperlink behind the "more than 30 percent" links to a page about the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections, and has nothing to do with presidential election turnout. I would like to know where this figure really came from.
I believe the average turnout is only about half, and was 55% in the 2016 presidential election. Granted, a 45% non-voting percentage is "more than 30%," but the 30% is a greatly understated figure.
5
Cut the baloney please. If black voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania had turned out in the same numbers for Hillary as they did for Obama Trump would not be president today.
4
You are so right. The DNC has doubled down on trying to get white voters who voted for Obama and then Trump when they should be focusing equally, if not more, on minority voters who voted for Obama and decided not to vote at all in 2016. Solving this dilemma will also help turn some Southern states, like Texas, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas from solidly red to swing states.
18
@Charles alexander
Why do you think they didn't?
2
@Charles alexander Black People did come out to vote but their ballots lost, rejected, registrations moved, polling sites changes == voter supression.
1
Knowing that Trump was a bigot and a racist, why did they not vote? What was the reason for the apathy? I have voted in every single election since I was eligible to vote. It is a privilege and a civic duty. The goal should be to incorporate civic education from kindergarten on in every school. Students should be taught about gerrymandering and voter suppression.
If community outreach is effective and if it will mean Trump will have to evacuate the Oval Office, it will be worth every penny.
4
But, there is a big ‘IF.’
Historically, the voting percentage in US elections is a lot lower than in Europe or India.
In UK and India, it is the responsibility of Independent Election Commissions to ensure every eligible voter is on the voter roll.
In the US, the two parties control the registration process, who try various tactics to ensure that their supporters are registered and get to vote, and other party’s supporters face lot of impediments. They are only interested in power.
I believe that if the registration process is made apolitical and independent Election Commissions execute the process, we might have a more inclusive democracy. Currently, it is the big Money that drives the whole process and controls it to their benefit.
@Data Data & More Data
There is probably little chance of an apolitical Election Commission. I do wonder why so many individuals do not exercise their right to vote. It boggles my mind. There has to be some time-rested data-driven methods for increasing voter participation.
Excellent. As a conservative republican in the 1979-80 Central District which was almost totally Black with some Asians, Hispanics, and Jews and some White college students and rich folks, I got myself appointed by a strongly Reagan supporting King County, WA Republican Chairman as a precinct committee man. In six months I had been PC for 19 different precincts until I could find a good replacement. Filled all 19 and then became PC for my home precinct in the Yesler Terrace SHA project.
Secret. No one paid. I knocked on doors! “Hello, I am your precinct committee man. Has any democrat ever asked you to be a block captain or help in an election?” “No. I am asking you. I am asking you to visit your neighbors and maybe once every 3 months (or every month) get together and discuss what issues concern your block the most.
This Republican remembers that once we had the Black vote. And then took it for granted. Lost it. And the Democrats now take us for granted. So this Republican is asking you to take back the party n the 37th district and to help me write a new Republican platform.
It soon turned out to be almost easy to get all the blocks in 19 precincts in this district filled. And as soon as I got half of them I met with them and asked one of the best to take my place as PC! 18 times in 19 months. Then I got myself appointed PC in my precinct and found myself the platform committee chair for King County.
George Bush won our mostly poor Black inner city and others district
2
Want more Black Voters? You really don't have to have a Doctorate to answer this. You want more Black voters stop abandoning them the day after an election. Election year in Black neighborhoods is like visit a few churches eat lunch with Sharpton or Jackson and promise that a change is coming. One party ignores Black voters and the other party uses them.
33
@Steven McCain
very true
1
Just ask Bernie and Nina Turner how to do it, since they're doing a bang-up job of just this.
5
It’s amazing how “talk to people and give them something to vote for” has become cutting-edge insight in the Democratic Party.
I don’t mean this as a knock on the author; it’s an indictment of a complacent party that just wants to throw billionaire money at everything, because it’s hot outside and walking is for plebs.
8
How will getting more people to vote in Philadelphia help with the electoral college?
2
Maybe win Pennsylvania?
1
The African American voting experience can be explained succinctly by a meme I saw on the late Elijah Cummings
"Vote for me. I'll change Baltimore" - 1996
"Vote for me. I'll change Baltimore" - 2018.
Insert Chicago, Cleveland, anywhere in the Midwest with large swaths of low-income minorities. Lots of talk, not a lot of performance.
I remember living in downtown Cincinnati during gentrification downtown. Guess what the democrats did? Basically let private money (P and G/Kroger all donating to redo downtown) come in and wipe out the African Americans and move them to the west of town because $$$$$$.
13
Perhaps any of the Democratic front runners who wishes to become the Democratic nominee should show up in North Philly to show (or least try to demonstrate) that he or she gives a damn. Why is this so difficult to figure out?! I canvassed North Philly for Obama - the excitement was palpable. Not the same in 2016 and sadly, does not (yet) seem to be there this year. Show up, people!
1
Local Democratic organizations should tap this huge untapped black votes which will make a huge difference in the outcome.
Door to door organizing, registering and helping every voter to actually cast their vote is what is needed.
The Republican effort had always been to suppress these votes by varieties of means.
Democrats should not take any black vote for granted but actually earn them with issues that would inspire those voters.
7
This is essay points to the hypocrisy of the American political system and in particular the Democratic Party. Party strategists understand the potential power of the African-American and more generally the vote of People of Color. The liberal left wants this vote, but they are not willing to earn it. They want it handed to them because they understand that they are the "only game in town". They do not include in their calculation that these voters just may decide not to vote because they have been down this path before - "vote for me and when I am in office I will forget about you". This view is as cynical as the Republican's Southern Strategy. The Democrats do understand that if there are too many photo opportunities of them shaking hands and actually listening to people of color in their own neighborhoods, they will run the risk of not gaining the votes they need from the white swing voters who supported Trump in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio. They want those votes more.
Candidates Warren and Sanders must demonstrate that they are truly dedicated and serious about the votes of African-Americans and People of Color. They need to spend real time, energy and funds acquiring the trust of this voting block. They must be photographed in their neighborhoods and not just driving through them. Holding a PR event in a traditionally black college, knowing that only white voters from the surrounding area will attend is not the answer. They must visit their homes.
4
The Democrats would do well to get more involved in local politics as well as door to door in black communities. We would have more familiarity to local business and community needs and be less likely to come up with wild ideas that don’t have a chance of passing and have little practical support.
In my opinion, black voters, as a general rule are the most pragmatic of all voting groups and many don’t vote because they don’t see how it would make a difference.
I think this a great idea and could go a long way to getting past slogans that mean nothing at the kitchen table.
4
Non-voters might also be motivated to become voters if they saw a party that would actually fight for them instead of quietly protecting the interests of its donors.
What is the Democratic Party doing to end Carried Interest or Surprise Medical Billing to name just 2 of the many egregious injustices damaging our society?
Writing bills that go nowhere is nothing more than paying lip service. A party worth our votes needs to loudly and unceasingly call out the committee chairs blocking its bills, advertise those committee chairs' opposition to change in those committee chairs' own districts, embarrass them at every turn, encourage candidates to primary them and to fight them for re-election.
But the Democrats don't do that. Instead they install the Senator from Wall Street as their 2nd in command and collude to protect Carried Interest and the rest of it.
If the Democrats nominate Warren or Sanders they will still need a big effort to get out the vote. But with a candidate like that, that effort is far more likely to succeed in communities that have always felt ignored.
24
@Green Tea
"This is a result of progressives’ failure to execute a plan ambitious enough to change the status quo."
"Writing bills that go nowhere is nothing more than paying lip service. A party worth our votes needs to loudly and unceasingly call out the committee chairs blocking its bills,"
This is simple: it is theRepublicans blocking the bills. If Democrats won the Presidency, the Senate and House, all the bills passed under Pelosi's leadership would be law. She talks about it all the time, but the press pays more attention to Trump's tweets than Pelosi's achievements. As voters, we have to pay attention, and to get out to vote
1
Yes, funding matters and getting the DNC and big donors to buy into this method would help tremendously. But I think the part that most people are missing is that the reason the block group method works is because it is not based on national messaging or individual candidates, it's based on individual voters expanding their community and their sense of what that community can do.
It's going to your neighbor and saying "Yes, I know things are all messed up and it's easy to get discouraged, but we need to keep fighting for ourselves and each other. We can't wait for the people in charge to get it right, we need to start pushing in every available direction to make it right."
7
These tactical calculations make perfect sense. Trump won three key states by 77,000 votes. If each of those states had the turnout they did in 2008 Trump would have lost.
But there is a deeper issue seldom discussed in our media. Trump got many former Obama votes because those people were alienated and felt neglected and forgotten by government.
The answer to voter alienation is not a turnout campaign once very four years, then back to business as usual.
If we want real democracy it should look like the race for governor in West Virginia. Stephen Smith, a first time politician is running for governor on the very 'radical' idea that government policy should reflect the needs and wants of the people.
He is running a grassroots organizing campaign, holding town halls in every county. Rather than building a platform written by think tanks, he's creating a platform based on what people at these meetings are telling him.
It's a campaign designed to listen to the people, not to tell them what they need. Its designed to build participation, not just support. It's a form of direct democracy.
While he is running on the Democratic line, he reminds voters that both parties have let them down. They make lots of promises, but once elected do the bidding of the coal companies and other big businesses.
Win or loose, he is determined to leave behind and educated and active core of voters who will build change locally from the bottom up.
This is what democracy needs to look like.
20
This is so smart. Every Democrat, whether politician or political organizer, should read this article. Investing for long-term Democratic political power is precisely what we need to combat decades of Republican propaganda and voter suppression. It’s time-consuming, expensive work, but this is where some of Bloomberg’s and Steyer’s and others rich donors’ money should go.
The DNC should hire Prof. Karthik Balasubramanian as a consultant.
10
Good analysis regarding the complexities and realities of voter turnout in key counties and states. And block teams and voter contact and discussions will help.
But it's also true that when polls and news headlines repeatedly indicate a race is going to be fairly close, it seems to make no sense to stay home and not vote. Like many did last time.
Every vote in the last election mattered and in the coming one will matter.
It shouldn't take a magic message to motivate voters to turn out. No one candidate will tell everyone exactly what they want to hear.
And promises of huge magical changes mean little, as most of us know from life experience. Of course you can try to promote policies that bring incremental improvements, but that too is not easy as the past 70 years has shown.
Voters should be self motivated because it should be self evident that staying home helps the person who's a thousand times worse than the one they don't like on the democratic ticket.
As the old saying goes, based on turnout and discernment (or lack of it) we get the gov we deserve. A sad reality especially today. Vote blue no matter what.
13
If you democrats to win our vote, stop treating our community as homogeneous and assuming that black people automatically support the democratic candidate.
Whenever there is analysis of the white vote it is almost always along the lines of class, education, gender, or residence, however, these analyses seem to assume that values in the black community do not vary on these lines as well. We're not all the same.
244
@Matt Yes, the black community is diverse. On the other hand, this is article is also looking at Urban dwelling populations - there is a distinct voting between Urban and Rural voters. While there are Republicans and Democrats in each area, we know which way the majorities vote.
6
@Matt True. I am quite aware that the rich contributions of Mahalia Jackson and Cory Booker are very different. Nor are they the same.
But so what? You may all well be different - just as are members of any ethnic group. What you, me, and many others have in common is the desire to live in a democratic society that works for everyone, where everyone is equal, and lives free. In this regard, none of us are different at all.
So help me understand the following: (a) why would you vote for a republican party that is exclusively the party of Rush Limbaugh, paranoia peddling AM radio, religious right that justifies slavery and the confederacy, supremacists, and a broad spectrum of scam artists and white collar criminals (leaving only two of my neighbors unaccounted for), (b) why, despite rich evidence that republicans do everything to suppress black voter turnout - have you not done much to ensure every black person who wants to vote, can vote, and (c) why aren't blacks voting in numbers that mirror say those of other ethnic minorities?
What exactly is owed to you now by democrats - now that we know you are not all the same? 'Cos, neither is anyone else.
39
@Matt
I'm happy as a white guy to be lumped in whatever homogenous group I need to be to turn back tyranny.
I assume everyone supports the democrats out of sheer necessity if your interests coincide with social cohesion and compassion and the policies that work towards those goals. Basically if you want a just society.
Republicans only offer selfishness, greed, racism, homophobia, misogyny, islamophobia, anti-semitism. No intelligent person can make a well-reasoned argument to support them.
This is not hard stuff.
24
You have to be careful here, you certainly want to address the needs of black people but you don't want to seem like you are pandering to them.
Obama was the master on this. He included all poor and middle class people as one unit not just black people and united the whole group.
Yes, go to black areas but treat them as part of all America not just a stand alone black area.
34
@Paul
And Bernie Sanders is pursuing the same strategy. He’s not pandering to groups with special promises. His plans would include ALL people regardless of race, gender, ethnicity or socioeconomic class.
Even a billionaire’s child could get a public college education for free. Of course, that billionaire will be paying more in taxes than that education will cost. No cross group resentments about who gets what and who doesn’t.
Imagine if we only got police and fire protection based on special group status. That would be a logistical nightmare. Imagine having to fill out an application for police protection that includes a means test to determine if you qualify for it without buying your own private protection.
5
@Jazz Paw Thank you for you reply. Agreed with Bernie. It was the fatal flaw for Hillary, ie female identity obsession.
Once a group obtained equality like blacks and women, it is better to include them with all groups like you say about Sanders.
The true discriminated groups now are gays and senior workers. Discrimination against senior workers is accepted, widespread, ugly and institutionalized.
3
Academics and the Times can't say 'boo' without turning it into a five paragraph footnoted memo, we need the simple version.
IF all black voters turn out, THEN two things happen:
1. Democrats gain 9 million votes.
2. Democrats win Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
And Trump and racist friends are DONE.
The focus cities are Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte/Raleigh/Durham, Detroit, Philly, and Milwaukee.
All you need to know.
Hey, I've got a car, I'm a disabled vet, can drive people all day long to vote. Where's the organization?
HELLOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! echo echo echo empty echo
HELLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
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@angry veteran
Seriously, thank you for your commitment. The truth though is people are motivated to vote when there is someone to vote for that we feel represents and speaks our interests. Most Black voters are not motivated by candidates like Bloomberg or Buttigeig. Some older voters may still vote for Biden but he is weak. Sanders is much stronger among Blacks and Hispanics and other minorities as well as among clock-punching workers because of his authenticity, his integrity and because of his position on issues that matter.
28
AI M,
True. However, if African American voters or those of other ethnicities are not motivated to vote, guess what?
Yup, 4 more (and possibly more if he has his way) years of Donny D and his newly minted coronavirus Czar.
This time more than almost any other in my lifetime: Vote blue no matter who. and down ballot too.
3
Excellent. This is a must read article. The swing state chart on non voting Blacks in swing states is worth the whole article. There's a reason Republicans work to depress the vote.
165
Fundamentally, after each election cycle, African American communities are ignored, their concerns and campaign promises forgotten. Bloomberg’s approach in NYC was to make donations to black churches and carry firth his policies of eviction from affordable housing to make way for his pals to become billionaires by building and selling luxury apartments to foreigners with questionable backgrounds. The goal was to make money. Bloomberg didn’t invest in education or healthcare in those neighborhoods where displaced families had to move to. Educated blacks are not hired for key jobs. Just look at MSNBC OR CNN, or the main stream press.
Trump must be removed by someone of principles. Elizabeth Warren is feared and been destroyed because she’ll make it happen. Not so sure about Sanders. And Biden will be status quo, which is better than Trump, but not by much. Life won't improve in a substantial way because his habits are establishment centered.
7
The fact there hasn't been a greater emphasis on registering and encouraging voter turnout among black, Latino, and Asian voters is an indictment of the ineptitude and negligence of the Democratic National Committee.
If people really progressive and liberal candidates to win more elections either get rid of the leadership of the DNC which is old, totally in the pocket of corporate donors and lobbyist, and inept, or leave the Democratic Party and led the moderates have it and form their own party or join the Green Party.
11
@Carl nonsense. They make plenty of effort. When they make concerted efforts to encourage specific groups they are accused of pandering. The voters here don't bear any responsibility? Stop making excuses for them. I'm talking about ALL voters.
All Americans need to vote, and should vote while keeping in mind that democracy is under attack in our country and around the world.
5
For Democrats to inspire larger percentages of black Americans to come to the polls, they need to do more than show up and make speeches.
A key issue to most black voters is the racial economic disparity in this country and the Democratic party owes their most loyal group a higher level attention of this beyond simply bashing Trump as a racist.
Economic racism may go hand in hand with psychological racism, but you can't stop the former by constantly complaining about the latter. You can't legislate how people think.
To assure the highest percentage of blacks go to the polls, Democrats need to emphasize the importance of a greater, more focused investment in education so that the quality of primary schools in poor neighborhoods are not only as good as in wealthy ones, but extra investment is made on students that fall behind. Results matter and gestures are cheap.
7
This is brilliant and doable! LETS GET GOING!
5
What Democrats have not learned is that negative identity politics doesn’t turn out the African American vote. President Obama proved that a message of hope and purpose does. Sowing discontent and anger is primarily effective with white liberals and conservatives. If you want a broader coalition then a friendlier, less divisive message is needed. That’s where Hillary failed.
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@John Newton said for every action, there is an equal & opposite reaction. This writer is missing the big picture. If this election is about kitchen table issues: jobs & education there's no way the Democrats lose. If it's about reparations & illegal immigration there's no way we win. These are the only issues that would compel independent swing voters to hold their nose & vote for Trump again. What progressives & their co-dependents will never understand is that Anti-left” will always beat “Anti-Trump” in most places in the U.S. Our best chance is to run from the center. Trump wouldn't have capitalized on the salience of race & ethnicity if the Democrats hadn't exploited it. Exploited they have to the max from offering free health care to illegals to crowing about the new minority-majority which is itself a lie to ignoring working-class concerns. Mind you the working class has always been one of the cornerstones of the Democratic party. Why one would want to alienate them has to be the most idiotic political decisions of all time. This strategy has handcuffed the party. They're unable to react in real-time to issues that concern all voters for fear of alienating their now identitarian base. The biggest question implied but not answered in this article is can Democratic Moderates & progressives co-exist in the same party. I would say absolutely not. The voters we need to win back the country have different values. There's no way to bridge the gap.
13
@John
Conversely, Trump proved that appealing to white racial resentment, and white nationalism can win the presidency for you. Sowing anger and discontent has proven very effective in turning out white conservatives.
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@John: take it from a white voter: "Sowing discontent and anger" is certainly not effective with us either. What made you think that?
4
We don't even have New York City politicians who go to where Black people live. If they did, they'd see, all over Brooklyn, neat homes festooned with roses, owned by Black people. When I go from here to there, I covet those roses.
Those also are homeowners whose property taxes would go way up if the City Council has its way.
2
Democrats:
Pull together or be pulled apart by Trump.
3
I’m sorry. African Americans have voted almost exclusively for Democrats for 40 years. If that hasn’t had a huge impact by now, it will not in the future.
15
@Shamrock
Yes, WHEN they vote.
1
Wow. Easily one of the most crucial pieces of information we've gotten from the NYT.
Let's hope the money is spent more smartly this instance.
*It's hard to believe political campaigns get funding so blindly. When giving to charity, I'm able to look and see how the $ is being spent.
1
Great analysis but what do Black people get for handing Dems a win. Nothing as usual? Universal healthcare won’t address the high maternal death rates. Free college for all won’t address the failing school system that makes it impossible to even get into college or be prepared for it. And college isn’t for everyone. Dems are still a bit clueless.
38
@Rose You read my mind, and said it for me. If Dems succeed in this election we need to deliver results, not just for blacks, but for the beleaguered working class. Otherwise, the cynicism, mine included, will only increase.
4
@Rose I've been trying to keep up with the details of the conversation as best as I can, and I honestly do suspect Medicare for All really would make an actual difference in maternal death rates, for two main reasons. The upfront one - free access to prenatal/natal care as a human right, not conditioned on wealth, job status, etc; and one I hope would start to address part of the structural problem, in that by taking profit motive out of the institutions which train medical professionals, we also take out the economic incentive for those institutions to perpetuate those kinds of sickening 'unconscious' caregiver biases.
I know Sanders comes from a class-identity/solidarity political tradition which can feel a little colorblind today, but I gotta say his (kinda crazy) persistence in trying to get at root causes of inequities genuinely does seem in earnest, haha.
Unwillingness to compromise on fundamentals of 'pretending the symptom is causing the disease' could be viewed as plus or a minus.
But there's probably something to be said about people whose self-worth really IS based on living by their ideals -- maybe, "wait, I can't buy them?"
7
@Rose
This is why I prefer a progressive candidate; I'm disillusioned with the moderate candidates who get nothing done.
3
This is brilliant.
3
A highly sensible article that I hope Democratic strategists read and take seriously. Boots on the ground was key for Obama's win, momentum or no.
A racist administration with racist policies that shamefully undermine and neglect Black populations deserves to be voted out and will be. It's the price this group of ghastly race-baiters will pay and I can't wait.
3
All of this! This is the smartest strategy I’ve heard in ages. And it doesn’t even mention the candidates. Not once.
Although if I may add one thing: If the Dems are looking for Black votes, don’t run Bloomberg.
1
Well said. Bravo. As African Americans we have been saying this for years.
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"By The New York Times | Source: analysis of black citizen population estimates (2016 American Community Survey) and black citizen non-voting rates by state (2016 Voting and Registration Supplement to the Census Current Population Survey) by Karthik Balasubramanian, Howard University"
I keep asking myself how is it possible to know how many blacks did not vote? The explanation is the above from the NYT. It is based on estimates and some sort of comparing voter registration to voters. What if potential black voter is not registered? What if they would have voted Republican (yes, I read that explanations below in the article that blacks vote democratic, but that is if they vote. Maybe non-voting blacks would vote something else if they did).
Be all that as it may, perhaps some commentor with a background in statistics might explain a little more clearly how this works. It seems that the numbers are very iffy. Or perhaps Karthik Balasubramanian might reply.
Just as an addendum, do we know how many of other ethnic groups, races, religions and any other appropriate label did not vote?
2
Beginning in the Presidential election of 1964 the Democratic Party has been the preferred partisan political choice of 90+% of the black African American female and male voting minority.
Since the Presidential election of 1964 the Republican Party has been the preferred partisan political choice of a majority of the white European American female and male voting majority.
The South Side of the Chicago was and still is the most populous and politically powerful contiguous black African American community in America. From Oscar De Priest to William Dawson to Ralph Metcalfe to Harold Washington to Jesse Jackson to Barack Obama there is a legacy trumpeted by the likes of the Chicago Defender, Ebony, Jet, WVON, Johnson Products ,Soft Sheen and Soul Train.
The 'dark' side was that Chicago was the most segregated big city in America until the 21st Century when Milwaukee, Wisconsin 'won' that honor.
The Supreme Court of the United States decision in Shelby County v. Holder by effectively gutting the Department of Justice pre-clearance provisions of the Voting Rights Act has led to states adopting means and methods that deter and suppress black African American votes.
5
Why should blacks vote for anyone? I don't hear a single candidate offering the one thing that the millions of minorities trapped in generational poverty and dependence desperately need: economic hope. Where are the job training and work programs? Where is the money to renovate the third world public school facilities their children attend? Obama understood the key was "HOPE". It got him the votes but he failed miserably to deliver.
20
@rab I have been saying this for years. I have for the most part voted Democratic, which has always meant a center left/moderate candidate. But what do African Americans get for voting like this. Very little. I lived in Chicago all my life until recently, and before I left I rode through some of the neighborhoods on the south side, and sadly these neighborhoods look the same, if not worse, than they did 25-30 years ago. Poor infrastructure, foreclosed homes, no grocery stores or other retailers, poor and under resourced schools, crime ridden with a hostile police force. What this article fails to understand is that moderate Democrats, not progressives, have failed to deliver on any of the promises made every four years. In some cases the policies have been outright harmful. E.g. Clinton's welfare and crime bills; resistance to busing, Stop and Frisk. Obama's policies did little to address the dire needs of black communities whether urban or rural, working or middle-upper income. Where is the economic development and investment? Where are the better funded schools? Why was my house in the south suburbs of Chicago, in a solidly black middle-upper income area, valued so much less than if it would be if it were in a white community? You can do all the neighbor-to-neighbor contact you want, but if you can't deliver and improve the lives of black people then many of them will just sit home on election day. Sadly I can understand why.
8
@David
I don't even hear progressive candidates talking about this enormous underclass of mostly urban minorities. Much less what to do to help them, beyond government dependence. Many in the upper middle and the upper class do not even realize how widespread the problem is, tucked safely away in their suburban McMansions. Out of sight out of mind is not what America should be about. If I was a poor young black man in the third generation of unemployment, what would motivate me to vote for any of these candidates? What could they possibly offer to me that I could honestly believe in.
5
@David
Think about the attention that this problem has received during the democratic "debates".
"What is your motto?"
Seriously?
What is your plan to help the millions of poor urban and rural Americans trapped in generational poverty and dependence?
Now Gail, was that so hard?
2
Thanks for the links at the bottom of the article. I am not donating a dime to the incompetent Dem Party, but I will donate to organizations that appear to be effective.
3
How many average African Americans, Latinos , and Caucasian’s attend the debates where tickets are thousands of dollars. With every candidate except Pete B a millionaire or billionaire the rhetoric about being champions of the poor is hollow. Free this and that for “everyone” made to urban centers and college campuses. The obscene billionaires are actually helping people and causes. The Senators have their names vin on bills that never see the vin light of day. Oh how I miss Kamala, Corey, and Andrew.
@Barbara
You miss them because they had lackluster support and they were unable to fund their campaigns. The reality is that if you can't articulate a message that people support with positive polling, votes, and financial support, then you are not a viable candidate. Unfortunately, both Corey Booker, and Kamala Harris were discounted instantly by many white voters, simply because they were black.
Democrats routinely champion support for blacks and then do nothing for them when elected. Why should they if 90% of them are going to vote Democratic anyway? This fact has not been lost on an increasing number of blacks, who more than whites are anti-immigration, pro-life, and pro being tough on crime. Those are the policies of the Trump administration, so why should they vote for Democrats?
4
People who read these comments boxes regularly know I have been writing about the same thing for three years now--Hillary's loss in 2016 was directly attributable to the low turnout of African American male voters in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami, Milwaukee, Racine, Detroit, Flint, and the North Carolina Piedmont, at least as compared with the turnout for Obama in 2008/12.
Now, of course, there was a very large voter suppression/social media disinformation campaign that contributed to this. And the DNC should, as Balasubramanian suggests, be putting that Bloomberg and other money into on the ground outreach, and text chains and phone banks and carpools, rather than mostly TV ads.
But the one thing not mentioned here that bears discussing is that turnout is still to some extent tribal; the opportunity to elect the first African American President was a big factor in the 2008/12 numbers. It's the reason that every Democratic contender should have Stacey Abrams' number of vice-presidential speed-dial.
Not that there aren't other ticket balancers--Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Julian Castro--who would be helpful. But Stacey would certainly put Georgia and North Carolina in play, and perhaps even Indiana. And her experience with voter suppression tactics, along with her excellent bully pulpit skills, are certainly not something Trump and company want to face.
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@Glenn Ribotsky
I've been suggesting Abrams as the VP pick for months. My ideal ticket would be Warren/Abrams. And as VP she should be put in charge of a program to make sure everyone can vote.
1
Thank you for this wonderful analysis! This shows why Bernie Sanders would be the best nominee for the Democrats - he's the only one who is capable of tapping into these abandoned communities and his message would resonate with those feeling left behind. Listen to the speech given by Killer Mike on one of Bernie's rallies and you would know what I mean.
1
Very smart article but I was surprised that it pulled its punches - we know the target group that has a horrible voting record based on multiple years of detailed election data - it is young and middle-aged black males.
It is not demographics or neighborhoods - black women of all ages and education levels vote like their white counterparts.
What we need is to convince mostly YBM to participate in our democracy independently of where they live.
18
@SteveRR
Politicians need to over YBM something for their vote. For years Now Dems appeals are to women, Latinos, LGBT, immigrants but offer nothing specific for black men.
4
This is such an insightful and eminently practical proposal. I hope the author is able to bring this proposal to the DNC and all its subcommittees in the cities and states he has listed. And how about reaching out to Stacy Abrams and the great work she is doing the voting? She has great influence. I even wonder if the Obama/Holder gerrymander organization would listen to this concept. Is there a way to get Michelle Obama’s eat? Perhaps funding could come from (or be influenced by) LeBron or another celebrity with a social justice track record. Just thinking... great ideas like this - and supported with great data, are inspiring to me.
28
Let's make a law that makes it possible for people to do the electoral equivalent of automatic bill payment. Just sign up and your vote is automatically registered as a straight party ticket forever in every election until you change it by coming in to split a vote in person.
2
@Robert David South
What could go wrong? Right?
2
What a brilliant and clear analysis, and most importantly suggested solution.
Bloomberg should spend his billions on this, not on running for President and boasting of how he bested others (though only in his imagination) at a previous debate.
As the author states, Republicans have recognized the power of uncast black votes for decades (and sought every deceit to suppress them), and using this suppression/exclusion to their advantage. It is past time for Democrats not just to recognize the key facts, but act to ensure the full weight of Democratic voices is reflected at elections of every level of our country. If Democrats do so, there will be no more Trumps.
86
The current crop of liberal candidates have their own messy issues with Black voters. Bloomberg and his "stop & Frisk". Sanders struggled with this segment previously, as well. Biden and Anita Hill, Mayor Pete and his track record in South Bend.
Warren may have an opportunity here to score some points, however, she is still fixated on suburban votes.
The liberals have assumed the Black vote and have never compensated them with real benefits.
Youth drop-out rates, single parent homes, fathers in jail, mistrust in jobs hiring, violence, no safety net, college fees, These are issues, Black voters care about. None is being discussed, and as with Obama, none will be provided.
Voter suppression is also key, and yet very little activism from Nancy or the candidates to quell that.
Most Liberal strategists focus on the Hispanic vote, and assume, that will win them key states.
This looks like 4 months of television ratings for the liberal media, and most certainly a win for the incumbent, in November.
7
@Gyns D :
"Pretty easy to find things about anyone that proves they are not perfect. Dems want a perfect candidate, perfect by all measures, or they will not turn up to vote, as your post shows.
2
Excellent analysis and strategy. And in addition, on election day, never go to the polls alone; take at least two others with you. And then be sure to invest in the future -- take your children and grandchildren to see how democracy works -- they will begin to anticipate "their time."
92
Excellent article and demonstrates clearly that Clinton's loss in 2016 could be attributed to her failure to turn out black voters both because her campaign spent no money to turn them out and also because she had no message on why these voters should support a rich white, entitled woman.
A number of black progressive leaders during Obama's 8 years pointed out that his administration did not do much for inner city black voters economically. So why would black voters in 2016 think a rich white woman had their backs?
As a Green Party member I get tired of being blamed for Clinton's defeat and in 2000 for Al Gore's defeat. If you want my vote then you had better have a good and persuasive platform on why the candidate merits my vote and will look out for people like me.
Good sage advice in this column--spend the hundreds of millions of dollars in Democratic campaign funds for this personalized approach in core black cities and have a campaign platform that appeals to these black voters.
38
@John And then follow up! It's not sufficient to court the votes. If you want black votes, you'd better earn them, by following through with as many changes to the systemic and systematic racism woven into the fabric of the nation. It's a tall order, but every move on the chess board counts.
9
By default they thought Trump had their back?
5
@john because she has a history of addressing issues related to poverty and has advocated for children and families her entire life. Black women got it, and had her back.
6
How come this excellent analysis didn't come sooner for serious organizers to be able to pay heed ? Too late for 2020
5
@As
The article provides names of groups that have been active. It is just so easy to give up, and it is never too early or late to do so.
12
Excellent analysis. Good ideas. Let’s get going.
23