Johnson, et al are delusional if they believe that there won't be some severe consequences for leaving the EU. The UK is not the powerful nation it was in the 19th century. It cannot impose its will on the EU.
10
This is a serious question from a Brit who voted for and continues to support Brexit
Why are so many Americans so vocal in their opposition to Brexit?
It doesn’t impact you
You haven’t experienced living in the E.U. like I have
Most of you don’t understand the functionings of the E.U.
Us Brits may have made a huge mistake but that’s our democratic decision. Don’t you believe in democracy?
6
How lovely to sit on the sidelines and watch the disintegration of a country that once ruled and ruined countless millions of lives around the world. Viva Brexit. You are finally doing unto yourselves as you have forcibly done unto others for centuries - glorious misgovernance!
17
It will take some time to fully implement #Brexit. Then & only then will Britons begin to realize the magnitude of the disaster they have brought upon themselves.
13
Just another anti-brexit doomsday story. The British have survived worse than this. Of course it assumes the EU will not cut off its nose to spite its face because that will really damage their bureaucratic state.
4
I have a suspicion that Brexiters will be begging to rejoin the EU after their economy tanks. Or their restaurants will be serving nothing but bubble and squeek with no French wine to wash down what are essentially leftovers.
9
@Christy well this Brexiteer drinks Australian wine
3
Like Trump's election, and likely re-election, Brexit has Putin's fingerprints all over it. Russia is a small, dismal country with a poor economy -- but that can be mitigated by weakening large democracies and economies through heavy doses of fear and populism. Will it work? Oh, like a charm. Hail Britannia! You're going to love our chlorinated chicken and other imported food products, you can see how healthy and fit folks in America are!
14
Great time to go through this with Covid-19 disrupting global stock markets and supply chains, eh?
Enjoy the fish and chips though, be sure to use plenty of vinegar.
7
And this will pay for the National Health how?
5
Brexit is almost the best thing ever that the former colonial empire did. The best will be to let Scotland and Norther Ireland break away to rejoin EU. May be England should seek Trump's help to become the 51st state of USA, or one of the territories.
12
About "...the government ...is asserting the right to diverge from European rules governing a host of commercial concerns — from fishing access and financial regulations to product safety, labor and environmental standards." Perhaps it's in the EU's interest to agree to the divergence and to treat the UK as a complete outsider, not an "old boy".
4
Lets see. I would prefer no deal. In worst case scenario I would like to see us use the 30 billion in compensation we would be expected to give Europe to buy shares in European companies that threaten relocation. European firms own large parts of British economy this would only be a leveling of the playing field. The British economy is well placed to compete having none of the interventionist policies practiced by European governments. Recent statistics hardly suggest the economy is in recession as was predicted by the Remainers. Domestically, the EU is already a none issue. Healthcare, the environment and transportation are what gets the public agitated.
2
The Times' anti-Brexit campaign has been relentless. It deeply wants Britain to be punished for providing the world with a democratic response to the threats of globalization.
4
@Matthew Hall
Not a campaign. Just reality. Any "punishment" is self-inflicted.
8
So true. The anti-British bias is unrelenting and quite shameless.
2
@Edmund Langdown - anti-Brexit is not the same as "anti-British". And the article refers to "voluminous studies" that have shown an overwhelming loss to Britain of this solution-looking -for -a -problem.
12
While it was inside the EU the UK had a say in making EU law and regulations.
Now that it is outside of the EU (by its own decision) the UK is effectively a "regulation taker" - subject to EU regulations without any say in what those regulations are. Sad reality.
11
@Loup how are we a rule taker when we are saying we will no longer be following E.U. rules?
3
@Barry Because no-one cares what "you" are saying. If the UK wants to trade with other parties, it will have to abide by certain rules. These rules will probably not be defined, certainly not dictated by the party with the weaker negotiating position (which is the UK, in case you hadn’t noticed).
8
@Silubr
you really don’t understand the British position, we have left the E.U. and will never agree to being ruled by any E.U. laws or regulations. We are now an independent country.
That was the whole point of Brexit
2
The Johnson Government is completely delusional about bullying the EU into a trade deal which would be favourable to the UK but completely unfavourable to the EU. The fact that the negotiations have not started yet and Johnsons deadline is at the end of 2020, is another reckless and delusional negotiating position.
As outlined in this piece, the only substantial industry we have, namely the car industry and aircraft industry is highly dependent on being in the EU customs union and economic market.
A no deal Brexit will leave the EU open to an ever increasing number of these companies rushing to relocate to other EU countries. The same is true for financial services and banks who have already, or are planning to leave the UK in large numbers to relocate to Ireland.
What does the reckless Johnson propose to do when all the major tax paying companies leave the jurisdiction? Perhaps he is considering disposing of all workers rights and creating a true free market of 18th century servitude for the masses akin to slavery.
The future looks extremely grim for ordinary people in the UK.
22
@Koret I love your response. You are right. I wish that I could put myself across as you do.
2
It will soon be the 1970s all over again in Britain...rampant labor strife, rubbish piling up uncollected in streets, severe cuts to all public services since tax revenue to fund them is no longer there. Call me arrogant but it continues to amaze how little capacity for memory there is on the part of the working class, and increasingly I wonder why should we be stuck with the bill to educate these people when they seem not to utilize the education.
18
@PghCat wow the “working class” are “these people”.
Seriously?
I’m a senior manager and I voted for Brexit as did many of my peers, are we also “these people “?
Britain’s economy since the Brexit vote has outperformed both France and Germany. We will not be going back to the 1970s “winter of discontent” that you describe
3
Shopgirls from Poland roused Johsonites to disable an economy that supported Brits for 50 years. Now comes the funeral passage of Britain into 2nd World Class. Sad.
8
When Britain can no longer "rule the waves," it "waives the rules."
13
So, the Brits took back control from th "unlected" EU-institutions (which is nonsense anyway) and handed over control to an unguided missile named Dominic Cummings.
Good deal.
10
Now that Not-So-Great Britain has severed ties with Europe and the dreaded European Union, isn't it time for them to also ditch that ultimately European invention, the Système international, otherwise known as the metric system. They should revert to the Imperial System of weights and measures ASAP, the system they once used when they rose to become a world power.
And once feet, pounds and gallons have regained their rightful place as official units of measure, shouldn't Great Britain also restore their once-hallowed monetary system of pounds, schillings and pence?
Enough already with the decimalization of all things English.
7
So, Great Britain want's its cake and want's to eat it too. Sorry, but the world of adults and reality doesn't work like that. I expect a painful lesson for them, to be sure. In some ways, I understand how the rest of Europe feels. We in the states have to deal with similar issues from states like Oklahoma and Alabama. And occasionally, I wonder if it wouldn't be better for the rest of us if they just went their own way as well.
21
@Northcountry Perfide Albion. Sums it up.
4
Worse than that, they had the best deal in the world in the biggest trading block on the planet, and they threw it all away to negotiate with unpredictable, unreliable Trump. Good luck with that.
11
@Northcountry
I wish the South would secede again. This time we say, "bye-bye".
9
I voted remain, but I don’t agree with the indications that it’s going to be catastrophe.
One interesting example is Nissan, they have a large factory in the north of England and they export a lot of cars. They were scathing about Brexit, understandably! However a leaked report has indicated they are considering closing their EU factories and concentrating in the UK, the logic being it’s a critical market and they are better off doubling down there than trying to sell cars to the southern EU countries.
The other aspect is productivity, it is and has been consistently low for over a decade now. One very simple answer is that the availability of cheap labour has disincentivised companies from investing in machinery upgrades. Brexit May now force companies to invest.
There are lots of bad things that are going to happen obviously, but I don’t think it’s as binary as the article suggests, my guess is both sides will lose out, the UK slightly more so. As mentioned though, I don’t think it will be as bad as the media is suggesting.
3
Well your example is awful though. Nissan is doing bankrupt and hasn't had steady leadership. Airbus is the real bellwether, and pharma rates from America the real issue.
5
Economically, the UK is yoked to Europe. The US has little or no need for UK goods and services. Name one thing they have that we don't. They need Europe.
The UK can set all the regulations they want, just like China does, but if they send materials to the EU, those materials will have to comply with EU regulations.
The only difference now is the UK will have no say in the rules by which they will be forced to play.
So will UK business have some manufacturing that complies with domestic regulation and some that complies with EU regulation for export? Or will they simply go with the lowest common denominator and select EU standards to maintain their businesses?
20
Brexit is an emotional solution in search of a non existing problem: the EU is the boogeymen standing in the way of British greatness able to chart its own destiny.
The idea that a blustering Boris Johnson will somehow negotiate to retain free access to the EU market with none of the obligations is wishful thinking. British greatness will be cut to size by what it has to offer and popular opinion will once again conclude that heavy handed EU bureaucrats are to blame.
Rest assure the UK government will be fully unprepared for the consequences of crashing out. High chance of Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland will jump ship and join the EU in due time.
32
The UK thinks of itself as a manufacturing and fishing country, when in reality they're a services-based country, specifically financial services/fintech, insurance and so on. Services are what is at stake here, yet the political class is entirely hung up on getting big political wins by "taking back control" of fisheries policy. London should be very afraid that the government is sacrificing seamless access to trillion-pound industries for the sake of a few small fishing boats.
15
The Tories seem to think that the sun still never sets on their Empire, but delusions don't buy even a cup of coffee--Starbucks prices are absurdly overpriced for what you get. What goes around can come around, as we all know, and an exited Britain flirts now with joining the Third World as its newest member. Justice has taken centuries to arrive, but hubris finally has brought its arrival. British Lords and Ladies can apply for positions as domestic servants on the Continent. The pity is that the greatest suffering will be as always by those least powerful and most poor.
13
The pro-worker economic program proposed by the Labour Party could not have been enacted under the neo-liberal austerity reign of the capitalist European Union. The British have wisely evaded the fate that befell the Greek workers at the hands of the Frankfurt bankers.
Lots of UK's wealth comes from its economic power in the City of London. I would be interested on how Brexit will affect this economic powerhouse.
6
If tiny UK leaves the EU, then it will have all the power to make all the rules it wants. EU will let UK keep all the good stuff, get rid of all the bad stuff, and tiny UK will prosper with the huge EU as its whipping boy because that is the way the world works. Brexit was such a good idea, and so is MAGA America. We just say stuff and the rest of the world complies. What else is there?
6
Such "wisdom" and yet presumably you claim to actually read the nyt and other publications at a similar level. Fascinating.
1
@Swift
I think I detected just a little bit of sarcasm in gratis's post.
3
Trade is a matter of propinquity, and unless Britain can change its geography, no trade deal can make up for the loss of unfettered market access to the EU. Just look across the pond, where America's trillion dollar NAFTA trade volume with thinly settled Canada and poor Mexico ($580 and $550 billion respectively) dramatically exceeds trade with mighty China ($630 billion).
And forget about tariffs. What matters is frictionless trade. Many industries (such as car making) rely in just-in-time delivery to keep down inventory and costs. Britain will be out of that game after Brexit, and this will make British components a tough sell, unless they dramatically decrease in price. For British industry, Brexit means a race to the bottom, because puny six million pound research projects won't get them anywhere.
Most of the EU regulations Boris ranted about were actually written by British Eurocrats at the behest of various British governments, which also pushed for freedom of movement to get as many well-educated Poles into the UK as possible. Ah the irony!
16
Brexit has always been about xenophobia, racism and anti-semitic fears rather than focusing on legitimate economic and governmental concerns. The Conservative, UKIP, and Brexit parties focused on the past "glory" days of the British Empire and strove to grasp at such a past once again, one that they'll never achieve. Now the Brits have found themselves between a rock and a hard place, they must still comply with many EU standards, while having little, if any, weight in their making or enforcement and will only see stagnation if not an extended economic slump for the years, or decades, to come because a reckless decision was spurred by the blind nationalism of the far-right.
14
Another example of the need for literacy/civics tests before being allowed to exercise the franchise.
9
Goodman states "The positions staked out by the British government pose perils for businesses that depend on Europe for sales and parts." Peter Europe DEPENDS on Britain too - economically and defense wise!
3
@JePense : UK is so small, most things can be easily replaced. Especially since the quality of goods coming out of UK will no longer be reliable, since the UK is gutting all the job killing regulations the EU imposes.
No regulations should matter, and the US should just import all pharmaceuticals from Uganda and rural China.
4
@JePense
"Peter Europe DEPENDS on Britain too - .... defense wise!"
Not any more. The combined armed forces of the 'Europe' are pretty powerful - on a global scale but no one member is particularly strong on its own. Poland has, numerically, the largest Army; France is on most metrics the most powerful military nation overall. Both France and the UK posess nuclear weapons, France having the most warheads, completely independent of the US.
The EU is NOT a defence body or pact. The EU's peace power lies in preventing wars BETWEEN its members. After milennia of bloody internecine conflicts, there's been no such war since the foundation of the European project in 1957.
Europe's external defence relies on NATO - most, but not all, EU countries are NATO members, some more enthusiastically than others. The UK has left the European Union, not NATO.
NATO is an organisation on borrowed time. It will end soon whether or not Mr Trump succeeds in destroying it. Europe will need its own independent defence force - it's strong enough, rich enough and advanced enough to get one. Thats why president Macron needs better support for his pan-European defence proposals.
5
@JePense
well, if you wrote it in capital letters and with an exclamation point, it must be true, right?
let's pretend for a moment that you and the brexit pushers and their slogan of "they need us as much as we need them" slogan were true. it really and truly isn't, but let's for a moment pretend that it is.
that STILL leaves britain without a paddle since even in this unrealistically rosy scenario for britain, the EU must rationally still ensure that britain gets a terrible trade deal, even at the cost of harm to itself, because the EU's primary concern must be the continued membership of the EU27.
11
There is this farcical British belief that both sides to an EU-UK trade agreement have equal bargaining power, like interests and goals (and equal amounts to lose). The British delusion is not dissipating. Where is the modern Voltaire who may debunk this "best of all possible world" logic. The hope is that the UK will have no EU obligations, no costs to Brexit and will share in all the benefits of EU membership. Here we go, "I like to believe that the deals that we will get will be roughly broadly in line with what we have at the moment,” Mr. Clifton says. “Both sides have far too much to lose.” Amazing.
19
If Boris Johnson is counting on Trump to bail him out by giving Britain a very favorable to Britain trade deal he will be sorely disappointed.
Trump only has loyalty to Trump and somehow falsely believes tariffs on goods coming into this country are paid by the exporting company to the US. When in fact they are paid by the importing company to the US treasury and then the cost is passed along to US customers.
The true costs of Brexit to Britain will not be known for years but right now the future does not look promising.
27
Not to be mean but HAHAHAHA!
What did they think was going to happen? This is just like the Trumpsters claiming that the tariffs have brought China to heel (though, no, that would be Covid-19 which has done that) and that manufacturing is blooming all over the US again. When we runout of the currently manufactured in China materials, we'll have a crisis, not a manufacturing renaissance. It could maybe in the future but definitely not right away. And it wasn't like manufacturing wasn't decreasing in most western countries before the rise of China. I grew up when people made fun of things "Made in Japan"...
20
I am somewhat at a loss for what it is that England exports that is of any value, or that cannot be found elsewhere. Scotch? Is that England?
18
@Chris
Of value? British Aerospace (BAE Systems) is, in dollar terms the 4th largest contractor to the US military. That valuable enough?
And, the UK's wealth (before Brexit it was the world's 5th largest economy) isn't based on manufacturing but on financial services. The City of London is the world's capital - principal product, tax evasion and money laundering. The UK operates the largest network of tax-haven dependencies on the planet. Do you think Brexit will affect that? Actually, yes. Johnson's government is legislating to greatly increase that national income stream.
6
@nolongeradoc
Hard to see any of the Pro-Brexit people I’ve read about benefiting from increased financial opacity. I think most financial people were actually anti-Brexit.
5
@Chris Financial services. NY is much further away and the language of business and finance is English.
Unfortunately, the US has little need for UK financial services (NY does just fine), so it's foolish thinking at best to believe that some free trade deal with the US is going to shift that export from Europe to the US.
I you want to trade with me, you have to offer me what I want. That means you have to meet my standards, not yours. And vice versa.
It's that simple. For some reason Brexiteers believe they can ignore this basic rule of trading.
But, as a poster stated in another forum, many English are willing to take an economic hit for the sake of some undefined (and IMO undefinable) cultural difference. These attitudes will prevail, for the time being. In the long run, England will either petion to readmission to the EU, or become a 4th rate satellite of China or the USA.
22
Brexit was a great example of people voting against their(and their nation’s) self interest. When times are generally good, it is easy to get people to do this by appealing to prejudice. Pro-Brexit promoters appealed to hatred of foreigners and lied about how much money foreigner were taking from Brits. What could possibly go wrong? Besides what was mentioned in the article, waves of people moving in and out of GB is occurring. Essential workers, doctors, nurses and many other important employees are leaving and thousands of retirees are being forced to return from the European Union. Politicians around the world understand an easy way to win short term success is to appeal to hate and fear. It worked in Poland, Turkey, Brazil, Hungary, and here.
175
@DO5
So we know what is good for people of UK?
This kind of thinking is what caused UK to leave. Next to follow are. Italy, Hungary, Poland,...everyone but not Germany and France who benefit most from their export to the rest of pack. In couple years or decade at the best Union will not exist.
2
Brits were European and had a seat at the table deciding what the European regulations were. They were their regulations. Ok, they may not have liked them all but a substantial number of Brits are also unlikely to approve of, or like, future Brit regulations. That’s what being part of a society means. Brits have already said that they will abide by European regulations for drug approvals so have given up any say in that aspect of regulation. Likely that they will have a future decision to accept either European or USA food regulations. Little Britain is unlikely to have the economic clout to force anyone to their way. The naive hope expressed by those interviewed is sad.
180
@Andy Carter As long as their fishing waters hold out they will have more than enough clout to leverage. You see, Mediterranean waters now contain no fish. They have been fished out.
3
@Ryan Bingham, yeah, sure, the fishing industry, which makes up a whooping 0.1% of the UK's GDP, will Make Britain Great Again.
93
@Ryan Bingham How much do fish account for the British Economy? Probably less than a tenth of a percent. Talk about a Red Herring!
44
So Brexit was a mistake as the history books will show. The UK dreams of its former glory and longs for a return. But you can't go home again. It will not work, no matter what Mr. Johnson manages to negotiate. It was always a cover for racism. As is MAGA and the dream of American Exceptionalism.
229
@Meighan Corbett Racism yes, but don't forget ignorance and arrogance.
30
@Meighan Corbett I'm afraid you are right. Those days of former glory for Britain weren't so great for the people they colonized, but somehow the English felt entitled and they imported that entitlement to America. However unlikely, we really should get over ourselves, and so should they.
9
In any discussion of the disaster that is Brexit it is worth mentioning that Boris Johnson has blocked the release of a 50 page report from the parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) into the role of Russian interference into Brexit. What few disclosures there have been about this document suggest heavily that Russia put just enough weight on the scale to tip the balance of events.
Sound familiar?
40
Finally, a conclusive answer to the question 'How stupid can you be?'
A P.M. proposes a vote on an idea--without regard for its vast national and international implications, as a way of getting some domestic political wiggle room--because he's sure it won't be adopted.
Politicians--Farage, Johnson, and co.--with more ambition than brains take up the idea as a way to make a name for themselves, selling it with nonsensical claims that they pull out of their back pockets.
The public recognizes the idea as a 'thing' and divides on it, with the credulous more enthusiastically for it than the sensible are enthusiastic about stopping it.
Because it's a thing it has to happen--after all, the logic is inescapable: 'We don't want Brussels bossing us around.' ("When pressed to provide an example of a European rule that impedes their business, both men come up empty.")
Now it's a done deal--except the deal isn't done. 'We'll figure something out...and it will be good!"
God bless merrie olde Englande.
(Note: I, an American, fully realize the stupidity represented by the election of Donald J. Trump and the conduct of his amazing administration at least match and may very well exceed that of Brexit and, so, present an equally definitive answer to the question 'How stupid can you be?' God bless us one and all. No apologies to anyone anywhere for my elitist condescension!)
27
There is a lot of bluster coming out Johnson's government that amounts to prioritizing "sovereignty" of business. Johnson himself has dismissed business with an expletive. Whether all this survives contact with reality is another matter given Britain's huge dependence on a trade bloc with a population and economy 7 or 8 times larger than Britain's and that takes 48% of their exports.
The entirely foreign owned auto industry for example exports 55% of it cars to Europe and gets 45% of its parts from the EU and simply cannot operate a JIT manufacturing environment without frictionless trade. About 70% of the parts in those minis come from Europe and are delivered to the plant at Cowley in 200 trucks a day.
Chickens. The British poultry produces about a billion birds a year and supplies 75% of British consumption. It will be destroyed by cheap US chlorinated chicken imports. Then there is financial services, the list of British businesses exposed to threat is huge. Despite this business (which of course is politically Conservative) has tended to avoid rocking the boat and engage uplifting happy talk as the examples in this article illustrate.
It will all probably end with a huge British climb down as happened over the Withdrawal Agreement where the EU got most of what they wanted.
5
I hear the sound of a train slowly going off the tracks. It's the very start of a slow-motion train wreck.
11
In the zeal of the citizens of the UK in elevating a bombastic blowhard along with “Make UK Great Again” battle cry those citizens may long for days before Brexit should trade be curtailed.
And striking a deal with Trump concerning trade is akin to selling your soul to the devil.
11
Boris and the Brexiteers are living in an impossible alternative reality. To think they'd want to hook up w/ Trump after the destruction he's caused to US democracy, relations w/ allies and global trade is sheer insanity.
But the horse has left the barn, soon to discover its a new and fraught world out there.
Too bad.
10
Take our chlorinated chicken. Please.
10
"But that could wall off a vast market for its exports."
Could, or Would? How can the EU stay together if it doesn't do so 'regulationarily'? So, is the drive for reduced legal obligation to obey EU income and corporate tax regulations, which is the driving power consistently driving Westminster to blame, mostly falsely, the EU rather than to make its own taxation regime less favourable to financial titans taking advantage of them, going to overpower Europeans 70-year-old determination to break out of its prior mold of intra-European violent rivalry?
More and more people in English-speaking countries are coming to recognize the savage futility of extending the rise of financial titans that began in the 70s and is now fueling the rise of decent politicians like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and, belatedly, Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg.
We live in interesting times is an ancient Chinese proverb. But it's impressively true of BOTH the UK AND the US today. How foolish/monstrous/savage/irresponsible/irresponsive have been the existing rightish leaders of these 'linguistic empires of the financial titans'? How long will that continue?
Mr. Goodman, and your NYT editors, you're doing a good job of educating the 10% to speak decent truth to arrogant power. Will you forgive me if I ask you to do just a smidgeon better?
6
@Angus Cunningham 'May you live in interesting times' is actually a Chinese 'curse'.
2
I think tourism to the U.K. will also suffer. Who would want to visit Britain knowing that the British hate foreigners. I would not feel welcome or even safe there. In flying to the Continent I will make sure my flight is direct with no layover at Heathrow.
6
@Mary
Not to mention, outside of London, the god awful food.
3
Frankly I don't care what happens with these negotiations, I don't care about your queen, I don't care about Megan and Harry. We left you a long time ago. As a American I will say I do expect Trump to bring home the money in any deal with you. It's the only thing he cares about. Sorry UK it's not personal it's business. I'm not looking for equable I'm looking for the squeeze and if I were in the EU and you had treated me like the episode in Brussels with Nigel and the flag waving I'd not be in any mood to do you any favors. Now or in the future.
11
"Mr. Johnson and his senior officials have oozed confidence that they can break from European rules and still maintain largely uninterrupted access to the European marketplace. "
This was the lie told from the very beginning of the Leave campaign, and continues to this day.
Johnson has no beliefs or principles. There is just as much uncertainty about the future today as there was when Parliament was deadlocked. I have no confidence at all that Johnson either knows or cares what is best for the country.
19
I fail to see how Brexit will be beneficial. It was brought on through racism and the new EU tax avoidance rules.
23
The UK imports way more from the EU than it exports.
If anything the UK has the upper hand in dictating trade terms if the EU wants to do business. With the UK money subsiding some EU countries no longer feeding the ECB, news propaganda will only go so far in unduly instilling fear in the general public. Ultimately you have to show your cards right.
1
@Kumar To be on a level playing field with the USA, their store clerks will have to work part time with no health benefits like store clerks do in the USA. Pregnant women will get no paid leave, just like in the USA. There will be no national health care system. The British want what the USA has, and now they shall get it.
11
@Kumar
The ECB is nothing to do with membership contributions. The ECB is the central bank for the Eurozone - the UK is not part of the Euro.
The UK's annual contribution to the EU (after generous rebates) is about $10bn. Hard to quantify exactly, but it's estimated that EU membership benefits the UK to about £250bn annually.
The UK's annual EU contributions represent <1% of the EU budget. You think the EU will fold scrabbling for pocket change?
4
Some win, some lose.
Overall so, it is not necessarily expensive. The UK will do away with many EU regulations , from labour protection laws to financial regulations.
Indeed, there is open talk, that onces those burdensome regulations are gone, the City could double its business of hiding the wealth of the global elites from the tax man
The UK has a large arsenal in doing so, from the Channel Islands, Crown dependencies, and overseas territories to do so. And does it well
2
@LArs You're assuming the EU will just grant the City the same access to Europe that the UK enjoyed as a member of the EU. You really think the City can make up for the loss of EU business by catering to dictators, drug dealers, arms traders, and tax cheats? That is magical thinking.
6
@LArs
And how does laundering money benefit the UK economy since it means no taxes are being paid?
4
Instead of wasting time speculating let’s wait and see how it turns out and then reflect on the actual results. Those who are pro Brexit say all will be good. Those against Brexit say all will be bad. The reality is it will be some each plus a whole lot of no change.
It’s is way to not change thinking there is little to no risk by doing so, but the reality is that there risk in the future and sometimes you have to take a chance. The EU needs more donor states than it has (Germany & France). The third leg has exited. I fully expect the German and French economies to collapse under the weight of the EU’s laws/rules. The UK has accelerated the inevitable.
7
@JimH No, the reality is that all the credible economic forecasts say that it will be bad. Most Brexiters accept that and say something like "that's an acceptable cost of taking back control". When all the economic chickens come home to roost, I'm afraid Brexiters will be too dazed to recognize what hit them.
9
@RH At lease the UK's "economic chickens" won't be chlorinated...
4
the UK will rue the day of the Brexit. Now they stand alone and the reality will be that they no longer have as much economy of scale as they did when aligned with the EU. Of course costs go up in this instance. I'll predict right now their economy goes into a prolonged stagnation.
29
I live in Wales which despite being one of the poorest regions in the UK voted heavily for Brexit. In an area with shrinking industry this is self harm on an epic scale. I blame the narrow minded racism of a lot of my compatriots whipped up by a rabidly anti-European press. The simplistic lies propagated by the Vote Leave supporters made me despair. We won't get the `control' so vaunted by the Leavers. We will instead become the `nasty bitter little island' that a GP friend of ours predicted a few years ago. Don't forget that 48% of us voted Remain and we're not going away but it's hard to feel a shred of optimism at the moment.
105
From the article: '“Going forward, we should have our own destiny,” Mr. Homden says. “We shouldn’t have to look to Europe to set the standards.”
When pressed to provide an example of a European rule that impedes their business, both men come up empty.'
This was a clear attempt from the author to portray the two executives, and by association their entire position, as uninformed. However the author's question doesn't really follow from the executive's comment, as the executive doesn't seem to be referring to business rules necessarily but perhaps broadly to disengaging themselves from the EU parliament, court of justice, etc.
Brexit provokes such a strong reaction in people as it is seen an affront to the liberal world view and the purported benefits of globalisation, but it is a legitimate political position.
It may well come to pass that Britain will suffer from the decision to leave the EU, or perhaps suffer for a short time only, or perhaps not at all. In the end we don't really know, but we will need good will from both sides if we are to hope for the best possible outcome for both parties; this good will appears to be lacking at the moment. Personally, I am shocked at the EU's messages regarding Scottish independence and Irish unity (see Donald Tusk's answers on these issues); EU leaders should refrain from commenting on what are currently British domestic affairs.
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@Michael "we really don't know"? Apparently you missed this bit: "Voluminous studies have concluded that abandoning Europe’s single market for goods and services will diminish Britain’s economic growth. Britain sends nearly half of its exports to Europe. Whatever the eventual terms of trade across the English Channel, some of this commerce is likely to confront impediments."
But why trust "voluminous studies," right? After all, voluminous studies say that global warming is occurring thanks to human generated CO2. Studies, such a waste of paper, particularly the voluminous ones!
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@Joe If you believe economics to be an exact science, then you are absolutely correct. I believe it's a valuable science, but not great at predicting the future especially in totally new scenarios such as this one. It's also a highly politicised science, so two economists could present equally rigorous works with two very different conclusions. Would you be confident enough to say that we do know what effects Brexit will have? If your answer is yes, there are consulting jobs waiting for you in any European government or think tank; you will be highly in demand.
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@Michael The executives don't seem to be referring to business rules?
What about this quote from Chris Ball, Chief Executive of Advanced Chemical Etching:
“Similar trading terms as it is now,” he says. “That would be the ideal thing.”
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Britain is now beginning to realize exactly what Brexit means. Access for exports being cut off, a simple day trip across the Channel to France to buy wine and cheese will be come far more complicated. Boris is determined to take the UK relationship with Europe back to the 60's and 70"s.
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Here's a trick question for you: A plane takes about five minutes to cross the channel, but eight hours to cross the Atlantic. The same proportion will apply to shipping goods which obviously takes a little longer.
Now which route do you think the present UK government considers to be the most useful?
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@Damage Limitation, based on the eptitude shown by the Brexit lot so far, the ideal route will be Vladivostok, Sidney, Tokio, Maseru, Brasilia, Mexico City straight to the destination airport ;)
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Party of business no more , the tories have gone from being a relatively benign institution inspired by classical liberalism and compassionate conservatism to a degenerate gang burning up with fantasies of past glories , in a relentless pursuit to stay in power forever.
The Johnsonians , you can’t really call them the Conservative party anymore , will cause any and as much damage as they like in their quest to show their supporters that “ Brexit is done”, and in turn those supporters will accept that, lost as they are in their own dreams of exceptionalism and lost grandeur.
It’s unbelievable that one of the managers in that article can calmly affirm that the UK must follow its own (arrogant) way , particularly when somebody in a business position stands so much to lose from just slamming the door on the past fifty years of European market integration.
And as usual none of the interviewees can cite a single European law that makes their life harder.
A collective dreaming , Brexit is still not over , not by a long shot, but eventually a rude awakening and a reckoning awaits . Even eventually in remote Shropshire.
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@David Mecoli Substitute the Republican party for the Tories in your comment and it would be just as accurate.
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@John E. Mangan Substitute Trump for Johnson....Same mentality and for staging smoke and mirrors shows.
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@Dan you got that right! Will the voters see it in Nov?
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I don't think the EU will not concede many favorable terms to the UK. If it does, it sends the message to other vulnerable countries with far right regimes screaming for a European exit, that leaving the EU comes with few consequences. There are fringe "Frexit", "Grexit", etc. movements in Europe. Why stay if you can get the same benefits when you leave? I think the UK will end up with a hodgepodge of trade terms, some favorable, most not.
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@PK
There is not the slightest appetite for any further EU departures.
This 'the EU will collapse anytime' is a Brexiter fantasy.
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From a non-specialist perspective it has always seemed to me that Brexit suffers a possibly fatal flaw that somewhat resembles Trumpism. Brexit was justified as a way to regain lost freedom and agency, primarily economic. It was sold through fear mongering and xenophobia. Now they will be able to keep out Polish plumbers and Asian kebab entrepreneurs. And French bankers and German engineers. We'll see how that works out.
Here, Trump touts "great deals' gained through blunt object negotiating, but it's really all about fear and hate. When I read the other day that Nick Mulvaney says we desperately need immigrants to grow the economy (because for all practical purposes, we are at full employment), my non-specialist brain says 'wait, if we need more people, why are we spending billions on a wall that can be penetrated by a $139 Sawzall from Lowes?
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Brexit will be great for China, because that's where British manufacturing is heading.
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It amazes me that Johnson and his ilk are banking on a favorable trade deal with the US to boost the economy of the UK. Such a massive deal will take years, and they will be negotiating from a position of weakness. Not a good formula but UK leaders seem to neglect facts. For instance, Land Rover has averaged about a 2% market share over the years.
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@Mike M
and Land Rover is owned by a Indian company (Tata Motors) , so is Jaguar
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How ugly the City of London’s skyline has become. When I lived there (15 years ago), glimpses of the Gherkin (controversial in its own right but innovative nonetheless) and St. Paul’s were a delight. What garish tat these new glass boxes - they looked like discarded mid-90s electronics from the day the doors opened.
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For decades, the UK used its military strength to enforce its thinking on millions of people all over the world whom it exerted complete control over. As the world changed and the UK weakened, its influence became increasingly limited. Eventually, it joined a Union that brought it out of the economic doldrums again. But, longing for days when it was in total control and fearing immigrants and a changed world, the British voted longingly for the earlier "good" times when they controlled all. Sadly for the British, they will now drift back into economic malaise again as they are even less relevant than they were when they sought the lifeline of the European Union and the hope it offered in 1973. But, they hope, showing that hope springs eternal, even when faced with ample evidence to the contrary.
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British owned businesses (the few remaining that producegoods, not services) will need to do what they have to do to survivie. if this means shifitng production to the EU, Asia, India, etc. so be it.
The subsequent loss of lower-skilled manufacturing jobs, etc. -- well, that's Brexit. Not included tin the politician's calculations, of course. Nor was the extent of the British-global service economy, etc. etc. etc.
The sun set a long time ago over the British empire.
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This is why they lost the empire.
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It seems to me that many Britons are so stuck in this misguided idea that Britain is still as "great" as it once was. If you want to call their bloody history great. Fueled by populist platitutes about how they will make Europe pay, the British people have conned themselves into economic isolation — there will be no winners in this sad chapter in history, but I expect it will most certainly not be the British. The island-mentality of the olden days is not going to suffice in this brave new world of technological wonder and global economies. God save us all, not just the queen.
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@Bartholomew : Agree. Same can be said for Americans and US.
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This little paragraph says it all: "When pressed to provide an example of a European rule that impedes their business, both men come up empty."
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@jeroen
Hard not to feel contempt for these men. I have asked that same question of Right-Wing people here, and the answer is always identical: there is no real reason. However, it does not spark an “aha” moment in the people being questioned. They just move on as if they’d given the best reason in the world. The logical follow up for this reporter would have been: “Okay, now that we’ve gotten past the buzzwords, what is your REAL reason for wanting Brexit?”
My guess is that it’s a combination of vague xenophobia plus, in this case, perhaps the desire to drive down worker and environmental protections, but I don’t know. Wish the question had been asked.
These men deserve to lose their EU markets. Good luck to them with a Trumpworld trade deal.
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The photo of the London skyline accompanying this article in the online version was highly symbolic of the current state of the political, economic, and cultural world. Skyscrapers in silly shapes vying for attention. Discordant voices in steel and glass.
New York has done it, too. Its Twentieth Century skyline towers vied for tallest, boldest, or most elegant, but it was a chorus.
London, Paris, Dubai, Taipei, Seoul, wherever. “Look at me!” architecture has given us the bar chart of our current zeitgeist.
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Yes. This. Great insight - I had the same reaction and I like the way you extrapolated the architectural metaphor to the broader political and social context!
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@Krdoc
Give me creativity and the diversity of styles it generates any day. The blandness of uniformity and the related hankering for tradition are what have contributed to the mess in the U.K.
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@C. Jama Adams Creativity and diversity are not the opposite of blandness and uniformity.
My point was that the the composition of today's skylines are representative of the modern era's emphasis on un-moderated individual expression.
In the early years of Modernism in the arts, we got Munch's "The Scream". That primal "scream" theory is now being made manifest by architects and developers resulting in a built large-scale composition that mimics our promotion of the soloist over the chorus.
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The British were taken advantage of and payed into EU coffers about $70 billion dollars, far more than they received back. Then there were the EU courts and regulations. British companies were relying on cheap immigrant labor while their adult population lost out in training and skills. This will be reversed. The British will just fine, but the real question is, without the British to scalp will the EU survive?
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@Ryan Bingham
This is simply not true. This lie was demonstrated a long time ago.
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@Ryan Bingham So expensive domestic labor and training and skills for adults will cause Britain to thrive?
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@Ryan Bingham What are the top three EU regulations you find most harmful to Britain?
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One of the main driving forces for Brexit was the desire to have more control over local matters rather than having them decided by committees based in Brussels that did not share much of the British culture and tradition. Then, there was also the question of free movement of people. London and elsewhere in Britain were flooded with people looking for a better life who brought with them and recreated in Britain the problems of their homelands they were trying to escape by coming to Britain.
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@jpduffy3 Now the issue is whether the British will fare worse or better now that they will have more control over local matters.
And you do not mention that the British "flooded" other parts of Europe as well. Did they bring with them "the problems of their homeland" as well?
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@jpduffy3 The largest population of EU migrants in the UK are Poles and Romanians. What are 'the problems of their homelands' that they recreated in Britain? One problem in both of their homelands is the rise of the radical right. But I don't think you should blame the Poles for the Tories moving to the right.
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@jpduffy3 They had control over their country. And what is this storied 'culture and tradition' that the EU didn't understand? Sounds like more British arrogance to me. And when you talk of immigrants bringing the problems of their homelands along, that doesn't even make sense when we're talking about EU citizens. The problems of where? Austria? Germany?
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Businesses avoid uncertainty wherever possible, so why would any company invest in Britain? Mini DJT can make all those promises but doesn’t look good for the UK
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It seems like Brexit opens a lot of business opportunities within Europe for local European companies. Are their European companies that can adapt so that they can "pound metal into desired shapes... [for] auto parts" and sell them within the EU? Or shape aluminum into exhaust pipes. Are European national governments considering incentivizing such developments? Europe has entrepreneurs, too, after all.
The article is written from and on the UK perspective, which is good to read. But how about a similar, in-depth piece from the European business perspective?
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@McDonald Walling I'm sure the Dutch, French, Germans and Italians have plenty of talent - some of it coming from elsewhere -and all of the infrastructure they need.
The dangers, as always, are mainly political.
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Brexit represents simple independence. Trade is both ways and will suit importers/exporters as appropriate.
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@David Being part of a community of nations impinges on independence as much as being part of the UK impinges on the independence of Wales, or being part of Wales limits the options of any community within it.
All of these places were formerly on their own too, until they decided it was in their interest to join a larger state.
The trouble with the EU is that it didn't create enough of its own institutions early enough, and is in fact too dependent, in decision making, upon the conflicting demands of the nation states.
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@S North I think a little more research into both history and constitution is necessary. Any suggestion of equivalence between the UK and the EU can only come from a Remainer.
@David I don’t know if calling people Remainers is a very convincing way to rebut their arguments, but you’re right that there’s little equivalence between the UK and the EU. The UK was crafted by conquest as much as by consent.
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