Let’s be frank. The news reports are NOT telling us WHO are the sick persons who are carrying and initiating the Patient Zéro cross border effect. Perhaps, most if not all, are Chinese nationals ‘flying under the radar’ and caring very little in public health.
1
I live in Zhengzhou, and we're in our fourth week of lock down. I'm American, I've lived in France and Belgium and I speak Italian and I've visited there a lot. I don't know these Western countries can do what China is doing right now. That is, locking down some 50 million plus people for a month.
There has been just the supermarket (a small one) and the fruit and vegetable store open for nigh on a month now. I live in an apartment with ten thirty story towers - all the entrances to the towers are walled off. You have to have a residence card and QR code (with your phone to keep track of your comings and goings) - and you must leave through one central entrance guarded by two police officers who check your card, your code, and your temperature.
For a while you could only go out every two days, but they kinda relaxed that. And the bakery and the convenience stores opened this weekend. But, to enter the bakery, you have to get your temp checked and your hands sprayed. And do not think of not wearing a mask. N95 masks only, please!
I teach at a university here and the classes are only online. My poor students - some of them - are not so well off; they have to the class on their phones.
We all accept the lockdown - China is very crowded and it's very understandable the protocols that have been implemented. But I just don't see how they could be done in say, America or Italy. We'll see.
106
@David thank you for sharing this firsthand experience, stay well.
20
Thank you for the update from where you are. Good luck!
9
@David from Henan. Thanks for sharing news from Zhengzhou, Henan, China. Thanks also for your acceptance of lockdown. Your concern for lack of potential lockdown in the US or Italy is quite legitimate. Everyone here likes to enjoy their freedom to travel . I have been to Zhengzhou almost 10 years ago and I was honored with a position of Adjunct Professor of Traditional Chinese Medicine at the Henan University. At that time I gave a lecture to a large group of doctors and residents on the broad spectrum antivirals from 100% pomegranate juice. I think it could be useful to test local unadulterated juice which could provide health benefits to persons in their early stages of infection or as prophylaxis.
Soon after a person is exposed to the virus and before the virus starts rapidly multiplying and the immune system has still not geared up to clear the virus, antivirals can give a person's immune system a chance to naturally stop the spread of the virus especially those who have sub normal immune system such as the seniors. I hope all infected persons receive optimal fighting chance to cure themselves. You can google Pomegranate and my name for my publications which also have documented the process of extracting the juice and sterilizing it so that there is no fungal contamination. Several natural products were tested and only pomegranate was found to have broad spectrum antivirals which could effectively neutralize enveloped viruses like Corona, Influenza, HIV etc. Stay safe.
10
The coronavirus doesn't recognise borders, it recognises bodies that can host it. The host doesn't show symptoms for days or even a couple weeks, the current testing can provide false negatives (meaning people that show as not having it suddenly show as having it a few days later).
Travel from an area not known to be infect to another area not known to be infected won't prevent the spread, merely that they will show up with cases a few weeks later.
It doesn't matter if you have had vaccines or flu shots (they aren't able to fight the current coronavirus), so whether vaccinated or not, the chances of getting it and spreading it are equal, same goes for ethnic background, religion, sexual orientation or any other excuse people are coming up with.
It will continue to spread, we know it will spread because flu viruses still continue to spread each year to every corner of the world (even Antarctica). The reason it will spread is because the people are infected before they become sick days or weeks later.
The question isn't if it will arrive in your town, but rather how prepared are the people to prevent spreading it further? Currently, some have left quarantine areas because they feel they don't have it and they have important things to do rather than understand even though they show no signs, they could be spreading it. It only takes one to spread.
9
OK NYT, how about some cogent information about the USA and this expanding global epidemic!
Given the prevailing dysfunction and denial that pervades the Trump administration seems America could be all the more vulnerable.
Thus far relevant information and guidance seems sorely lacking. Especially useful would be useful precautions and guidelines for reducing the chance of infection and or best actions if infection occurs.
22
It is worth emphasizing that the reason we are seeing so many cases in Italy and in Korea is that they're testing for it! Something which we are not systematically doing - if you are a doctor in the US and see atypical pneumonia, for instance, it's extremely difficult right now to get a test for this done, unless it meets a very narrow definition (travel from China within the last 14 days). This definition is now irrelevant. It needs to become just another PCR to run for every major hospital / regional lab.
This makes the delays in establishing testing in the US rather baffling and problematic. As many epidemiologists are noting, the US has only run ~500 tests total since January, and seems to have an effective capacity of just 14 tests/day! South Korea on the other hand is running 6000 tests every day, allowing it to effectively contact trace and get a handle on the scale of the epidemic. We have no such capacity right now, and some estimates are that it may take till mid-March for every state to be able to run tests regionally. It's worth pressing the CDC as to why these delays are persisting if other countries have been able to stand up tests rapidly. The NHS in the UK is even planning / rolling out at-home testing to prevent potentially infectious sick patients from visiting an emergency room.
The reality is, based on what's happening elsewhere, there is a significant chance that there is ongoing, silent spread in many communities here in the US.
324
Thanks for pointing this out! It just didn’t make any sense to me that there is not a single case of the virus in New York City whereas some small towns in other countries do.
55
@Kim Indeed! It's certainly not credible that there's not a single case in all of NYC or barely any in LA for that matter. The number of travelers from Wuhan and China alone in the pre-quarantine period, and the sheer contagiousness of this virus, suggest that it must be here and spreading. Most people experience mild symptoms, so it's only when severe cases pop up (which can 3-4 weeks to really show up as ARDS - acute respiratory distress) that regional health authorities may notice. Even then, hard to distinguish from the flu until there's a critical mass of cases, as in Wuhan. That is, unless you start testing sooner...
77
@jackal New York was one of the cities that announced a couple of weeks ago it was going to start sort of random testing in people who seemed to have flu but it didn't show it on test, or people who had pneumonia. But I don't know what happened to that. Haven't heard of any results. I think part of the problem is CDC hasn't been able to come up with reliable test kit. They sent out a bunch and then had to recall them because they were defective. I'm sure there are cases among us. Not to mention the fact that with at least 10 nonstops arriving at NYC airports from Italy every day, plus thousands more people coming in from Italy via other countries, we're going to HAVE to have some sort of reliable and fast test soon.
24
What makes covid 19 dangerous is it’s combination of relatively low mortality rate and its contagion. Imagine a virus with 100% mortality rate, it would quickly die out. As a virus’s mortality rate decreases it can spread more before dying out. Covid 19 has a 2% mortality rate and is very contagious during its long incubation period which makes it the perfect virus , it may spread to every person on earth and 2% of 7 billion is 140 million deaths, not counting the significant morbidity of respiratory viruses. It has already brought the worlds largest country China to a complete standstill ! Surprised at the WHO for not taking this as seriously as it should, but then again we can’t shut down the whole world !
124
@Hobo
"Imagine a virus with 100% mortality rate, it would quickly die out."
Not really. It all depends on how much one can spread the virus before dying. But note that even with a relatively low mortality rate here, many require hospitalization, so health services are quickly overwhelmed.
Also, your assumption that it will spread to every person is wrong. For instance, it's estimated that 1/3 of the world population was hit by the spanish flu.
The mortality rate may also depend on local factors (since it's a respiratory disease, pollution and smoking come to mind).
All in all, it's too early to predict the number of casualties. In a worst case scenario, your estimation might be plausible.
6
@Hobo
Go read the first half of Stephen King's "The Stand," which posits an extremely contagious superflu pandemic which kills 99% of those exposed to it.
As I like to say, we're all the minor characters who get killed off in chapter 3 of a Stephen King novel.
2
@Jean-Claude Arbaut
The Spanish flu was 1918, today the world is far more connected than 1918 ; on a positive note we are also more medically advanced than 1918.
This is a worst case scenario, but in medicine we always think of worst case scenarios.
2
Is it time to start believing in science again?
Just asking for the 40% who apparently don't.
54
@Shappy0 Just so you know many of us would prefer Trump to Sanders and believe in science totally regarding virology, climate change etc and don't agree with Trump on plenty but given a choice between an elderly man with coronary heart disease who will not release his records and will change the Medicare I know and like, is a socialist, who promises free everything, maybe next the Brooklyn Bridge the lesser of two evils could be a liar and narcissist who has somehow provided peace and prosperity, the latter begun by Obama.
2
@Shappy0 It’s up to 50% now.
"If the virus spreads, the fundamental principle of open borders within much of Europe — so central to the identity of the bloc — will undergo a stress test, as will the vaunted but strained European public health systems, especially in countries that have undergone austerity measures."
I found this comment irrelevant... I wonder if the US states borders undergo a stress test every time there is a virus.
22
To compare national frontiers of member nations of EU to the borders between US States is wholly improper for historical, political and socio-cultural reasons. I think the phrase in the article you seem to be uncomfortable is actually well-placed, given the long simmering tensions within the EU and when the very idea of a united European Project is being questioned in today’s identitarian, sectarian, regional disputes and claims in the last decade or so. EU without freedom of movement is no EU.
8
also fyi - a lot of public hospitals, especially in western and southern Europe, are critically underfunded and understaffed. My French colleague’s girlfriend works in hospital in Paris. (and I lived in France for 5 years).
5
@michel yaakov I still do not agree with you. Here we are talking about a virus spreading around the world. It spread from China to Japan, S. Korea, Europe, Middle East, the US, while there are pretty well-defined borders.
Europe and its freedom of movement are totally irrelevant. Let's keep things in perspective. I expect my European co-citizens to have the minimum intelligence needed to understand that freedom of movement of viruses does not follow the same political rules as the freedom of movement of people.
The simmering tensions that you brought up is the result of a multi-political identity, within most States borders and in EU as a whole. It is a dynamic situation and more natural than the two-party system of the US that separates the US states to red and blue, with totally opposite views of the world.
8
I agree with the comment from “American in Germany” below. Prato has been largely taken over by Chinese labor, mostly undocumented. It has been a festering scandal for many years. The man who died in Codogno had a pregnant wife, so chances are he was not elderly. There is no report as to how he contracted the virus, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had business in Prato. The problem with so many undocumented Chinese in Prato is that there could be an unreported outbreak there and the media won’t hear. Labor is smuggled, therefore travel bans are ineffective. The police are totally in cahoots with the illegalities, so they’ll be mum. The national government must finally move in.
15
@joymars
He is 38 years old
Let me guess. He just returned from Chinese New Year holiday in China.
So far, so good for us in the U.S.
We seem to have been largely spared.
But how long will this last?
We are led by a President who is a pathological
liar, who is also widely known for firing government
officials who are even remotely guilty of telling the truth.
I recall the time when he began altering the weather charts for Alabama.
Woe will be us, if this thing begins striking here.
38
Woe will be to us, if this thing begins striking here.
1
I’ve received a first hand account from Iran that things there are worse than we know. I’ve been told hospitals are overflowing and they are simply overrun looking after people with symptoms rather than speak ding time testing. I hope NYT has people on the ground that can confirm the state of affairs over there.
You know what I'd like to know? I'd like to know about the people who have contracted the illness and recovered. That's the greater number and the information will be at least as useful to us as the panicky yellow journalist information about the new cases being reported and the people who are succumbing.
I'd like to know how long, on average, people are sick before they recover. What are the usual symptoms? What did they do for themselves? Self-care, or hospitalization? Hospitals are notorious disease-spreaders so I'd really like to know about the folks who recovered without ever going to hospital. Their experience can provide a model to us. It is information we can all actually use.
It is a safe assumption that there are a lot of folks who had what they thought was the worst flu ever and then eventually recovered. These should be tested for COVID19 antibodies. Their information is what we need now.
4
@Flaminia , I know it’s the fashion to attack journalists as if they are wicked people wishing ill. But they aren’t. The world would like answers to all your questions, the CDC would. The WHO would. Information about the illness and it’s nature and courses and our responses is being gathered as fast as epidemiologists and others can. In the meantime, numbers of sick and dying and new outbreaks are in fact news, not theories or guesses. Being able to avoid angers and fears breeding their own sickness might ba a good idea.
4
Ladies and gentlemen we must accept the situation as it really is - rather than how we think it could be, we with a tiny degree of improbability have a pandemic on our hands.
It is often the case with epidemics that finger pointing to those in charge of controls, borders and governance are targeted. To anyone not initiated into the nature of viruses, they can appear to be as controllable as goods and services crossing borders. They are not, and this virus is uncommon in it's attributes.
This virus is exceptionally communicable unlike others we've faced in a generation, and any comparison to SARS, MERS or Ebola is as applicable as comparing the aforementioned to the common flu. We have a new virus that is with us for a very long time, and I suspect it will be commonplace to be vaccinated against it as we are with the "common" cold or measles.
To those thinking we can "lock this virus down", you might as well make that statement about the common flu and be laughed off stage.
When the fire is set to take the house, it is best to evacuate and let the fire department hose it down. Or instead you can be convinced your tap water will somehow save the lounge in the grand delusion you can exert some meaningful control.
3
@Aaron saxton A vaccine for the common cold? Are you sure? You sound just like the naturopathic doctor who told me the other day that there is now a cure for cystic fibrosis.
Ignorance is only shameful when it is being flaunted.
The point of the layover being a cause for a lapse in testing is a very important point.
I wonder how many infected people have slipped through any controls by having a layover flight. The actual number could be much worse.
It is important to understand that border control has always served as an important part of preventing pandemics. Anyone arriving to Ellis island was quarantined after arriving and being processed.
In a globalized society and with uncontrolled migration, Italy faces a hard task of controlling the disease. Especially if the infection rate explodes in Africa, as it is predicted to do.
5
Has anyone else noticed that the totals of infected for both India and the Phillipines have been stuck on 3 each for two weeks? In countries both run by some version of an authoritarian government? Is that plausible? Also there are thousands of Indian H-1B workers here, arriving coming and going.
Something else to point out: Testing for body temp as screening for infection is problematic because many people's body temp is below what is considered normal, could be 2-3 degrees lower, so a "fever"reaction would not get it up to the threshold of detection; also immune systems may not react to produce a fever.
5
There is at least one funny thing among these dramatic events.
It's hilarious how the Americans see Europe, both in the article and the comments.
A virus is a stress test for open borders (seriously?).
In Italy the virus spreads in churches? Wow, so, in France, I guess it will be by french kissing? In the Netherlands by sharing joints? In northern Europe in saunas?
19
In Eastern Europe with folk dancing?
5
@Jean-Claude Arbaut
In the United States: Beer Pong.
7
Trust me, the average European is equally ignorant about the U.S. and Americans.
1
"She said this was probably caused by infected people who traveled to Italy from China using indirect flights without declaring their original departure point or putting themselves in voluntary quarantine during the virus’ incubation period."
Duh. You're basically using the honor system to contain influenza. The virus is going to spread. We're just watching the clock now. 12-48 months before a vaccine is developed. Where is the next outbreak and when?
The truly scary question is if and when healthcare systems start collapsing. You're going to find yourself popping aspirin to treat pneumonia when the lights go out. The book "Station Eleven" offers an optimistic but realistic vision of how a flu pandemic leads to societal collapse.
Things are going to get worse before they get better.
6
Hospitals are currently heavily burdened by a high rate of cases of the "normal" influenza, thus making a potential COVID-19 outbreak that much more difficult to contend with. Be sure and thank the next anti-vaxxer you meet for his/her contribution to public health.
11
@Bill China has an extensive vaccination program, no exceptions and yet that is where the Coronavirus broke out and spread among all those vaccinated people. Those not vaccinated didn't spread it. That isn't how vaccines even work.
I got my vaccinations for Polio, measles, mumps, rubella, and dozens more, but they only work for those things we know about. Even those who are vaccinated can still be 'super-carriers' and spread those illness and are more likely to since they will survive.
Another example, when the H3N2 flu spread, I had gotten my flu shot that year, the problem was they found the batch made that year wasn't effective against H3N2 and those that did get that year's flu shot had prolonged illness times. Those who didn't get the flu shot had higher temps but shorter illness periods of only 1-2 weeks, those that got that flu shot had 2-3 months of prolonged milder fevers and chills.
Not all vaccines are equally effective and none come without a risk of some lifelong side effects for some. The pro-vaxx position is just as irrational as the anti-vaxx position when it comes to the costs and benefits. Statements like yours highlight the irrationality.
I read that there are 111,000 illegal Chinese immigrants in Italy, and that they are the dominant population in pretty Prato. No cases of the virus in Prato thus far. Italy has to monitor Chinese visitors arriving from indirect routes, which is probably the majority of arrivals, as how many direct flights per week are there between China and Italy. The location of the cluster of cases in Lombardy is strange, so the sources of the infection should be traceable.
1
Having been born and grown up in the Veneto region (roughly 50 miles north of Venice), the recent news have made this global disaster much more personal for me.
It's painful to hear and see the people and towns of my youth experiencing what must be a stressful and frightening time. For the sake of the world, I pray a vaccine is developed soon.
9
People are over-reacting.
This virus is a paper tiger.
The fatality rate is low--- one per 32.
And most fatalities are elderly people.
1
@Freddy
One per 32 is a mortality rate of 3.125%, which is 31.25 times more lethal than the flue. The flu kills roughly 50,000 people in the US each year, which means the corona virus has to potential to kill over 1.5 million people. That is no paper tiger, that is a looming public health disaster.
Also, I guess you are willing to jettison the elderly. Nice.
33
@George Your math may be correct. I am appalled that the Nevada Caucuses received ten times the attention than a pandemic with the potential to kill millions.
2
Why the assumed implication for the disease threatening the EU’s open borders? Politicizing the pandemic helps no one. The risk is in travelers from China, Iran, and South Korea, and, as noted, those traveling indirectly who don’t disclose their proximity to the epidemic.
What we need is checks at all airports and train stations, and isolation of cluster spots, and vigilance and support at family-doctor offices throughout Europe, on a regional basis. National boundaries are far too broad a brush.
This has little to do with EU internal borders and more to do with shared vigilance to aid our common destiny.
5
I hear that the USA is hiding the truth.
3
The U.S. government is already failing. Why is there no one who has been appointed "face of the virus," either from NHS, CDC, or HHS, to give daily updates concerning preparedness and procedures to the American people? I doubt most Americans know what to do if they think they have the virus (go to the hospital or call 911?).
Today's editorial about what comes next pretty much names all the things that should be happening but aren't.
8
Tragedy, as an Italian living in America I know that most of Italy is open to everybody. That is, museums, monuments, churches, beaches even streets are open and free to explore either as a tourist or pilgrim. " New normal" comes to mind what with the ease and frequency of long distant travel and the nature of business, this sort of situation will occur more often. A good reason for nations to cooperate and be transparent when it comes to world health issues.
30
The outbreak in Italy is particularly worrisome because so many people visit Italy and will return to their countries. Most Parisians in the fashion business have spent the last week in Milan for the Italian fashion week, and then there are all the foreigners who went to Venice for the carnaval. Schools, universities, sports events, theaters, churches, everything has been shut down. I feel very bad for the people who have to go through this. Corragio!
17
Let’s face the facts – Coronavirus/COVID has become a worldwide pandemic.
All the signs are in place for a global economic downturn triggered by the Coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile the Stock Market is near record highs. It’s time to sell the Market short.
The crash may not happen this month, but it will come soon.
Such a crash will have major political implications. The high Stock Market seems to be Trump’s primary indicator of economic success.
14
Does the practice of taking comunión have anything to do with this virus spread in Italy? Do some priests still pass the wine chalice from one person to the other only wiping the cups edge in between? And administration of the wafer? Even if the priest no longer passes it out personally, all those hands touching things in succession seems like a great way to pass bacteria or viruses along. The Korean outbreak was among a church community about whose practices I know nothing. Are priests in Italy going from house to house to visit the sick? I sure hope not.
9
@Ann the most important outbreak in Italy is linked to an infected person going to an emergency in a hospital. Here in France the health ministry keeps repeating over and over that if you think you might be infected to not go to a hospital but call a specific number so you can be taken care of appropriately without endangering others. People don't share wine in Catholic Churches. Churches, theaters, schools universities have all been shut down in the north.
9
@Ann Pasted from "Ann P" a commenter who resides in Italy: "- The Italian Episcopal Conference, a leading organization of the Catholic Church, has recommended no hand-shaking or embracing during the Sign of Peace during Mass."
2
As FDR taught us, you have nothing to fear but fear itself.
He learned it the hard way, living with polio.
Same thing here, while we must be vigilant vs. this virus, fear is the greater threat. Also while we have been talking about this issue for app. 3 months, app. 30,000 Americans have been killed/seriously wounded by guns in America and we are doing zero about it.
25
Of note is that FDR almost died from the Spanish flu as he returned from Europe via boat. Double pneumonia. I agree - courage, not fear, is important today. And to remember we are all in this together.
18
@Italian special Thank you for your reply.
Yes, great people throughout history have been plagued by major medical problems, Lincoln with depression, Darwin, Newtown, Wilberfort with serious digestive issues etc. etc. to name a few.
They did not panic, wither and die, they led and educated and brought great advancements to society.
6
@Italian special No. FDR did not die of "Spanish Flu".
1
Trump is probably our best “canary in the mine.” Germaphobe that he is, if he stops performing at his rallies, we will know there is a problem. Actually all the candidates running for President should be watched. If they stop hand shaking all over the country, it may be telling as well. (Don’t tell me our health care system is not in desperate need of an overhaul.)
11
Watch the seasonal flip on these viruses; then the latitudinal spread in the southern hemisphere, especially Africa and South America---should be quite the extension. Do not forget influenza A and B which also has ravaged North America this past year: 26 million affected; 15,000+ deaths. Reminds me very much of the pine-bark beetle decimation globally: "changes in attitudes, changes in latitudes;" follow the weather, jet-stream, and climate. With so many 'moving parts' now, the pathologies will also increase. Fund NIH/CDC R&D and prepare now.
10
Does this feel like a sci fi film or novel to anyone else? Mother Earth tries to cull the human population with the evolution of a new, unstoppable virus. Only children, who will lead the next, conscientious, generation are spared. In theaters now.
16
Mother Earth is innocent. Man ain’t.
9
it is quite probably too late for these containment operations to be very effective. I am reminded of my Grandmother's old saying about closing the barn door after the horse has already bolted.
11
Why isn't the Times reporting on the lack of testing by the CDC in the US? Also budget cuts in the CDC back in 2018 appear to be hampering the agency's ability to deal with coronavirus domestically.
45
The global spread of this virus was utterly preventable. How many pandemics do we have to endure before the ‘authorities’ get a clue how to respond appropriately. Instead, we have the Keystone cops.
Rule#1...No traveling outside the initial outbreak area until, under strict supervision, a 4 week quarantine/isolation period is undertaken and proven negative for the virus.
Rule#2...see Rule #1
10
@Susanna You keep forgetting in this case, plenty of people showed up negative for the virus that only a few days later showed up positive. Many people haven't shown symptoms for over a week after contracting it. So long incubation, false negatives in testing have made it spread easily and made containment merely an illusion. Given people show no signs of having it that are both the carriers and spreaders well before any signs show, means we will have travellers from areas not even on the radar spreading it weeks before the first cases show up in the region that has now come down with it.
So how do you stop a passenger from getting on a flight in Atlanta to Phoenix who never has been to China, never been to Italy or South Korea, doesn't have any of the symptoms and even if tested would show as a negative for the virus but two weeks later and we find out they have it?
2
What a strange comparison to make. The “immigration crisis” was an intentional, reckless and thoughtless assault on innocent citizens by inept politicians pursuing ill conceived ideas. It poisoned trust in the EU and shattered whole regions. The Coronavirus is ultimately like wildfires and crop failures and the plague, an age old story of humanity and its fragile truce with the natural world. Angela Merkel is not Mother Nature.
15
It is indeed a fallacious comparison to make. But equally your description of the role of politicians in immigration crisis is somewhat awry. The so called immigration crisis was the result of an overspill of the Syrian refugee population that were temporarily resident in Turkey (with the active connivance of President Erdogan of Turkey). The root cause was the crisis in the Middle East. It wasn’t caused by European politicians or the EU who handled it as best they could. The alternative was letting people die en masses in the Mediterranean Sea. But the comparison is indeed invidious.
Public health is also largely a matter for individual Member States and not the EU. It is a national competence. The EU can assist with coordination but for practical purposes everything else is a matter for member states.
The emphasis in the article about the risks associated with free movement in the EU is peculiar. Exactly the same risk exists in the USA. In any event there are public order and security grounds on which free movement between member states can be temporarily suspended. And that’s exactly what will happen if necessary.
13
Half of the cases in S Korea are tied to a religious sect but people ignore that. In Russia, drug resistant TB ran amuck in prisons and no one cared. The same with EBOLA a few years back. One American died and everyone bended out of shape when thousands of Africans perished was only a day or two of reporting in the world section. In HKSAR, people claimed they grief for the passing of Dr Li WenLiang, the Wuhan whistleblower, but they refused to let government set up quarantine centers much less treat the potential patients.
It appears humanity has not progressed too much when anger & fear dominate and kindness & compassion are okay so long as NIMBY
12
My wife and I have canceled a Baltic cruise for this June because:
1. Italy's number of coronavirus cases has skyrocketed from 5 last Thursday to 215 this morning (Monday), thus putting all Europe at greater risk.
2. Cruise lines may alter or curtail the schedule/itinerary without refunds; and cancel-for-any reason insurance adds about half the cruise cost.
3. We are both over 70 and thus at higher risk of becoming seriously ill or even dying from COVID-19 if we catch it.
4. In the best of times cruise ships are floating Petri dishes that easily spread noroviruses; note the current COVID-19 epidemic on Diamond Princess.
5. While our cruise ports are in nations that now have fewer than 25 cases, the coronavirus could become a pandemic affecting many countries, including those on our itinerary. Our nightmare scenario is that we or other passengers contract the disease aboard or ashore. Do we want to be treated or quarantined on the ship or in Latvia or Estonia or Russia or Finland or Denmark, where Medicare is not accepted? No way.
For us the medical/financial risks are just too great, so for 2020 we are planning to limit our travel to US destinations we can reach easily by car or short flights.
Over time we will evaluate the coronavirus situation and see how cruise lines and foreign countries are coping. There’s always next year.
Readers should seek from doctors and travel advice from travel agents, carriers and insurance agents.
22
So for those of us who are not of the moneyed, retired class not much has changed. Got it, glad my itinerary of the occasional road trip when I can catch some time off work can remain intact.
I find it quite puzzling how you don't consider that an outbreak might actually occur at some point in your own homestate and city. Till then, have fun making vacation plans.
1
Well, silver lining is Italy finally gets the reduction in tourists the residents want.
19
As Dr Osterholm stated in an editorial today, the chance of stopping this virus is rapidly approaching zero. It is not a coincidence that new centers of infection are being recognized not in the third world, but in countries with the resources and governments that allow and support reporting. Iran had no cases until several days ago and North Korea and several SouthEast Asian countries have reported far far fewer cases than they are likely to have.
15
Reporting how many "cases" are occurring worldwide invites the question of diagnoses are made. That question was given added meaning by recent stories about changes made in the "counting" process in various countries.
Since the common cold is often caused by a coronavirus, it would be informative to know if all "cases" have actually been determined to be COVID19, and what diagnostic test actually is required to make that determination.
5
Be Prepared.
Perhaps a concerted effort between businesses and governments should now commence to finance triple shift manufacturing operations of respiratory machines, equipment, oxygen equipment, and preventative products. Apparently, the greatest threat is difficulty breathing as has been indicated. Governments should provide unlimited capital at low rates to enable massive 24/7 production.
I'm most concerned by the lack of eye covering throughout photos of the last weeks. Safety chemical goggles may provide sufficient protection. Simple eyewear is not enough.
All industries related to filter products should be assembling engineering teams to design protective products and adapt facilities to mass production of both personal protective masks and interior air filtration equipment including Ultraviolet germ killing lights.
Dry foods are cheap from noodles and pasta to oatmeal and flour. People should devote some of their budget to food staples so if they must remain indoors, they will have sufficient food. This also includes bottled water. I've found that gallon bottles are cheaper than pint bottles in bulk. Be sure to boil tap water, and disinfect handled surfaces throughout besides washing hands frequently.
I see no need to be upset as the mortality rate of COVID-19 is actually lower than a Flu, but why not be prepared? Our science today is far superior to that of a century ago.
11
@Somebody Yes. An example of wrong information being passed along. This has to stop. The "what about the flu" people have been driving me crazy since the start of this. That said, the mortality rate appears to be much lower than the Spanish Flu. But it's far far more deadly than the season flu.
9
@Somebody
That is factually incorrect.
4
@Somebody
I checked your claim. The seasonal Flu has a mortality rate of about .1% and preliminary estimates show a 2 to 3% mortality rate for Covid-19, therefore, you are partly right in being that Covid-19 is really about 20 to 30 times more fatal.
Thanks.
4
How is it helpful to call a virus from abroad slipping past a border? Borders don't prevent wars, pandemic or global warming. They may actually cause them. Science, cooperation and in this case Universal health care coupled with national and international cooperation are required.
Panic and fear of our neighbors isn't going to stop this or the next one.
We are going through antibiotics at an alarming rate. There are new superbugs that can't be stopped. We are loading our food supply with antibiotics and all kinds of poisons. What is that doing to our collective immunity? Do we even want to know?
Today our leadership is attacking universal health care in the USA. They are attacking science and science funding. They are pushing trade deals to sell tainted US food, loaded with antibiotics and pesticides to the rest of the world.
There are now 7.5 billion people in the world. The idea that we aren't in this together is crazy. The idea that borders make us safe crazy. We need to work together. This is nothing new. We have had pandemics before and we have survived as a species.
It's reasonable to be afraid of the unknown. It's not reasonable to use xenophobic fear mongering to solve serious problems that impact everyone across the globe.
19
@HL Antibiotics have nothing to do with viruses.
11
@Justin
Your immune response to viruses can be impacted by antibiotics. Microbes that may protect us from viruses are reduced by antibiotics.
The antibiotics in our food supply may well be reducing our immune system to viruses.
6
This virus is as contagious as the flu. Have we ever succeeded in containing the spread of the flu?
It would be wise for cities to invest in expanding their mortuaries, crematoria and other funeral services, we are going to need them soon.
6
“If the virus spreads, the fundamental principle of open borders ... will undergo a stress test, as will the vaunted but strained European public health systems.”
What an alarmist, foreign view of Europe. This hasn’t happened, you’re just making predictions based on American’s incorrect ideas of Europe.
29
@S And the fact that if it spreads to the US, given the lack of affordable and available healthcare, the mortality rate here will be akin to a third-world nation - because that is the healthcare system the US has now for anyone not in a gated community.
2
For the last time for one month stop all flights from China , Japan , and Korea for one month . If you don’t this virus will spread dramatically for those with the virus do not show symptoms and later have the virus.
Yes it will hurt in the short term for one to three months but long term the virus will be under control.
If this spreads to Africa it could get out of control. If it is necessary stop all flights for 3 to 6 months . Control the temptation to act as if this is under control.
13
It seems COVID-19 carriers are all around the world now. Preventing the spread of this virus will be very costly for the government and will be transmit unknowingly. Only quarantine the infected for 14 days will not stop this virus because it is depends upon the spead of air and air can flow long distance. The information about the characteristics of virus should be studied by the scientists and spreading simulation should be performed using modern AI. In future, we will be able to solve this problem with human casualties and it's fatuous. I think more skilled scientific community involment in this research from the world is undeniable. We should inform about this virus to the people who has knowledge of research and simulation instead of good gpa, gre, toefl scores because our university have full of them and it is out of their scope.
3
It’s a fallacy to say the virus is everywhere so therefore don’t ban flights from hotspots.
Anyone in their right mind would halt all flights, trains and ships from China for the next month. Iran, South Korea and probably Lombardy through Milan would also be a good idea but less urgent because of lower incidence.
The Chinese government cannot be trusted with any information and especially not where the safety of outbound goods or people are concerned. They have demonstrated a lack of empathy or responsibility for people of other nations time and time again.
I was not born with deep skepticism and wariness of China and its policies towards people and animals. It is very much a position acquired through reading and experience.
4
Don't believe the stats from the Chinese Communist Party. They famously control the news to suit themselves. And at the moment they want their people to go back to work, regardless of the risk to China and the world.
8
Influenza is scratching its head over why all the hoopla with the corona virus' 2 to 3% mortality rate when it, the heavyweight, kills at a 10%+ rate. No headlines? Even SARS was worse.
From our good friends at wikipedia:
"Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths."
Google "influenza mortality rate".
It seems this is just the kind of thing that our emperor would declare as being 'fake news'. Unfortunately.. this time he may be right.
4
The vaccine can’t come soon enough.
5
I am offended that the Chinese Communist Party thinks the rest of the world is so naive or gullible (and the implied arrogance and hubris of them angers me). It insists that the Wuhan coronavirus is a freak act of nature that sprang from a Pandora’s box of a wet market in Wuhan, China. There are at least a million similar markets all over Asia, Africa and the Middle East and we are to believe Nature chose that one wet market in Wuhan China? It wants us to ignore, forget or discount that there is a secretive government BSL4 lab down the road from the market that handles, studies and manages the world’s worst viruses and pathogens. The problems with China’s labs are well documented in the 2002 and 2004 SARS epidemics. Bad stuff leaked out of its labs. Xi Jinping and other officials allude to laxity in these labs as recently as last week, without admitting any causality. Even in the U.S. the Government Accountability Office found double-dignity breaches and biohazard incidents in government labs. The GAO found that federal oversight is fragmented and self-policing. I suspect that the Chinese government is considerably less diligent and vigilant than the U.S. Fang Chi-Tai, Professor of Epidemiology at National Taiwan University believes this and worse might be the case. The Wuhan coronavirus is no act of random nature.
8
@Charlie Chan You are spreading rumor there. There are plenty of reservoirs for disease in nature already, for example, populations of wetland birds which migrate have been found to be one of just such reservoirs. A virus normally is very mutagenic, meaning it can change very rapidly and evolve over time, thus even a small viral reservoir, such as at an open air market, can be a vector for disease.
See for an example: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2725901/
8
@Ronn
From Science, 31 Jan 20
“Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origins” by Jon Cohen
Concerns about the (Wuhan Virology Institute) institute predate this outbreak. Nature ran a story in 2017 about it building a new biosafety level 4 lab and included molecular biologist Richard Ebright of Rutgers University, Piscataway, expressing concerns about accidental infections, which he noted repeatedly happened with lab workers handling SARS in Beijing. Ebright, who has a long history of raising red flags about studies with dangerous pathogens, also in 2015 criticized an experiment in which modifications were made to a SARS-like virus circulating in Chinese bats to see whether it had the potential to cause disease in humans. Earlier this week, Ebright questioned the accuracy of Bedford’s calculation that there are at least 25 years of evolutionary distance between RaTG13—the virus held in the Wuhan virology institute—and 2019-nCoV, arguing that the mutation rate may have been different as it passed through different hosts before humans. Ebright tells ScienceInsider that the 2019-nCoV data are “consistent with entry into the human population as either a natural accident or a laboratory accident.”
Laboratory Accident.
2
@Charlie Chan Possible. Review the incidence of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in Maryland in the 1960s. Was this isolated spike in Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever related to biological warfare experiments at Fort Dietrick?
Only nations that test for Covid-19 will detect cases. Once you detect cases, you have to report them. Once you report cases your economy craters and borders get closed. No wonder most countries are not testing extensively.
The entire continent of Africa has only one reported case.
17
My takeaway here is that WHO was right, travel restrictions don't prevent the spread of virus. Italy was the very first country to suspend flights from China, and yet it now has an outbreak without obvious connections to China. There can be a number of possibilities: asymptomatic carriers of the virus from the nearby skii towns in the French Alps where there are confirmed cases, from other Asian countries, and even from other European countries with confirmed cases.
We will also see why the US travel restrictions against China were politically and racially motivated. My prediction is that there won't be any travel restrictions against Italy.
32
@David “We will also see why the US travel restrictions against China were politically and racially motivated. ”
That’s absurd, and other countries also placed such restrictions.
31
@David I think it's unfair to presume racism and political motivation. A virus with a 2% mortality rate has infected tens of thousands in China. It's not like people are making this up. Please don't rush to accusations.
I live in Miami, where a small number of zika cases caused the tourism industry to almost shut down a few years ago. Did people overreact? Absolutely. That's just the way people are with mystery viruses. And this one is a lot worse than zika.
24
The area where the virus is clustered in Italy is the location of leatherwork sweatshops that employ thousands of Chinese, many undocumented. They are smuggled in and out of Italy.
Look it up.
Not creating physical barriers between us and the epidemic is just plain silly. Banning flights and trains from hotspots is just a great big hazmat suit.
I’m not sure whose political agenda is served by your position, but I find the Chinese government’s efforts to minimize consequences for themselves for unleashing this pathogen on the world unethical and selfish. Quelle surprise.
Trust science. Much is to be gained from slowing it down while we race for a vaccine.
9
As a long-term resident of Italy, I see the Italian authorities taking an aggressive stance in trying to contain the spread of the virus.
This article does not mention a few other key measures:
- Anyone suspected of having the virus is not to go to the doctor or the ER, but to call a special hotline. Based on info obtained through the hotline, the local authority may send personnel to test the person calling.
- It is recommended that people keep a distance of 1.82 meters from one another - a distance deemed sufficient to avoid catching the virus.
- In addition to the shutdown of schools in some areas of the country, school field trips have been cancelled nationwide.
- The Italian Episcopal Conference, a leading organization of the Catholic Church, has recommended no hand-shaking or embracing during the Sign of Peace during Mass.
Since this article was published, another elderly person has died from the virus for a total of four deaths. There are now around 210 cases in the country.
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@Ann P These measures are appropriate but are not enough.
Other countries are not taking proper measures either but are panicking instead, for example, I was wakened this morning around 6:30 by a truck, fogging the entire neighborhood for mosquitoes (?!). This indicates the level of desperation that has set in here in Seoul. Streets are pretty bare here too since one person, who was diagnosed with this was out and about, here in the neighborhood.
8
While I hope it can be contained, my view is it will not be. It will become global fairly soon. It is just too highly contagious, people do not show symptoms right away and the planet cannot be locked down.
On the upside, as bad as things are (and they are bad) the current death rate is about 3%. It is not Ebola (70% fatal) nor the Plague
My biggest concern is when it gets into places with less access to healthcare--developing countries in Africa , Asia and South America. Think about folks in Venezuela.
35
Lock down is tough, both to enforce and the widening impact as the days pass. My town here in Hunan province has moved to increasing enforcement as have many other areas of China by reviving Maoist like community groups armed with red arm bands to walk the streets to discourage foot and vehicle traffic save for the needed trip out for food or medicine.
Aim simple: fewer social interactions fewer exposures – is Europe up for that? Hope so.
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@wsmrer The French press reported people breaking the quarantine would face potential jail time. European countries are small, making limited quarantines rather easy to enforce one would think. It may be too late though.
11
If walking in an village, volunteers will told you go back home. If not, police will arrest you as disturb social safety. It's needed.
13
Greetings and very best of luck to all in China and beyond. So unfortunate if this is what it takes for us to realize that we’re all one on this planet - not just interconnected globalized dots/nodes/networks of consumers and citizens as our governments and huge corporations like us to believe - but one species. Evolutionarily, we will emerge slightly stronger - but no less vulnerable to new mutations and other viruses down the line. Besides slowing the spread and hastening work on immunization, media outlets, governments, universities and business must collaborate to develop and disseminate bio-emergency at-home treatment guidelines, services and products. While there are probably no effective “home remedies”, what are the options for effective society-scale self-quarantine and home treatment? People won’t all run free- willingly, to quarantine sites. Nor will workers be keen on working in them. People are being told to stay home, logical for many reasons. So, what is the most effective and humane public health preparedness approach and response to dealing with this type of global bio-emergency on a human level? This is the possibility for China. How do we keep people at home, keep food being grown, transported and delivered, waste being collected and incinerated, slow spread and save lives? And do so in an instant. In every country, cities are becoming larger and more dense. That’s the future. Again - good luck to you all in China, and everywhere.
9
Trump cut the budget of the CDC and he is proposing deeper cuts.
Go figure.
19
I am in Italy. Please "Eruption" of cases? 150 over a population of 60 million, In Italy they are seriously checking people, therefore, they are finding those who have the symptoms. Austria, France, Germany, the USA are not doing the same as a result they have fewer cases. 3 dead, all over 75 and one of them at the hospital treated for cancer.
10
@Lorenzo The entire article is alarmist for no reason. Viruses don't have cures so of course this virus has no cure. The immune system is the cure, just like with EVERY SINGLE OTHER VIRUS. HIV is controlled. It is not cured.
6
@lorenzo I am also from italy, and this country doesn't deserve to be defended (amateurs in jeopardy)
2
@Davide I'm also from Italy... and the US. Have you ever lived anywhere else? Yes, there is much that should be changed in Italy. One of Italy's biggest problems? We have this horrible habit of complaining all the time. But it's all we do. We could make small personal changes, but it's so much easier to just complain about the other guy. Politicians, are especially good at it... and lately, they've become experts.
3
Borders (Political or Geographical) are amorphous to air and birds and insects as well as small rodents. It would appear that the spread of this virus could be 'done' by any of these means.
So it would appear that any 'man made' lock down will at the end of the day be i.m.h.o. just a delay in the spread of this virus.
Fingers crossed that we will survive. In any case I'll drink to that, proost, cheers and down the hatch!
2
I’m not a person prone to panic or conspiracy theories, but since the original outbreak was reported in Wuhan I have had a dread that this was going to be much worse than the average American in the street thought. I have watched the stock market with astonishing shock that the traders seemed oblivious to the potential economic devastation this virus could wreak on the world economy. Now I will admit I work in world trade so I have an intimate knowledge of just how interconnected the world is both economically and freedom of movement of its citizens. I have told people for years that in 24 hours you can pretty much be anywhere else in the world, that applies to this virus too. And so far what have we heard from our President about planning and preparations for an American outbreak? Do we even have a surgeon general these days?
25
@Chris I was also puzzled by the resilience of the NYSE in the face of these certain economic impacts. The Times had some stories last week that clarified the situation. One reason U.S. stocks have been ignoring the epidemic is that international investors see it as safer haven from worse situations abroad.
7
Is this flu as bad as the news is reporting? I thought I had the flu twice, Russian and what the British call Winter Vomiting (barf!), but my nurse sister said no, one or two days is not a flu.
So, I guess I have never had it. Vomiting aside.
The good news seems to be that children are not as badly affected as adults are. Well, not great news for me, but there ya go.
I'll just hide in my closet.
6
First let me state that The Coronavirus is dangerous. One if it's biggest dangers is Our lack of total understanding of it. The most recent numbers that I've seen are 79,707 cases World wide with 2,626 Deaths. Now let's compare that to the Flu just in America. The CDC estimates that between October 1, 2019 and February 15, 2020 that there have been 29,000,000-41,000,00 cases of the Flu just here in Our Country. They also estimate that between 16,000 and 41,000 of those cases have resulted in Death. You tell me, Which is more dangerous?
3
@Alan There are a disproportionate number of deaths in China, where the cases are probably under-reported ten-fold and where people who are sick are being sent away from hospitals and doctors. In the US and Europe 12 people have died, most in their 80s. Relatively speaking, it is nowhere as deadly as SARS or MERS and is most likely quite comparable to the flu. However, it is also most likely more contagious than the flu.
4
So last Sunday evening (Feb. 23) there was this popular TV talk show without its in studio usual public - billed by its presenter as "surreal" - though guests, comedians and regular staff were featured: that gives you the measure of how serious this health issue is, along with postponing Lombardy's and Veneto's soccer matches. It looks to me that trying to avoid panic is extremely difficult, especially when you have this existential conundrum on your hands: to always inform the populace of the virus's spreading speed, or focusing more on medical breakthroughs, keeping information objective? Not easy, especially when, and to me this is so much an oddity, most of the global economic powerhouses - China, and Italy's northeastern regions - are being affected. So far.
5
Europe and Asian are now 2 continents that are engulfed by Corona virus, with China the most populated country in the world with 1.4 billion people still being the epicenter. There is so far a silver lining that the mortality rate still stands around 2-3% and the country with the second largest population, India with a population of 1.3 billion is relatively free of the virus. I just saw Trump address 125,000 people at a cricket stadium in western India.
Africa, Australia, North and South America, South Asia, Europe west of Italy are regions that are for now safe places to travel to with precautions. Iran in the middle east has had a significant number of cases. What seems to work is keeping infected persons quarantined and treated with tender loving health care. As I have been saying crowded places in enclosed spaces should be avoided and looks like Italy is prepared with school closings and cancellation of carnival celebrations. Prevention is always better than cure and we know a lot more about how to prevent the spread from just the past 4 weeks. Safe travels.
8
The information that is being released to the general public is purposely skewed to alarm. What I am seeing is that most, if not all, the people who die are septa- or octogenarians and/or have underlying medical conditions, which makes this virus similar epidemiologically to the "common" flu: much more rampant and much more deadly. Apparently, the majority of infections are moderate at most and the vast majority of people recover.
16
@Kris
Your assertion that the common flu is more deadly is false, according to available data. The reverse is true.
8
@Dave Almost all healthcare spokespeople have said that the flu poses a greater threat. It's in every article on the topic.
1
@Jonny Walker Right. Because this virus is not endemic globally yet as the seasonal flu is.
1
Hungary sent a group of school kids returning from Milan to a hospital for two weeks of quarantine, but people coming home from the region by car just sail across the border and continue there lives here. In other words the actions taken to prevent the spread are completely random. I wonder when the first case will spring up here. Probably soon enough.
12
Italy was the first to totally stop flights from and to China and implemented wide spread tests. This is reason why more cases were discovered, is just a matter of time and the same will happen in other countries in Europe that did not take the matter as seriously.
Being the the third economy in the Continent Italy has a lot of contacts with China, but so are the other major, which did not act as swiftly. The article does not mention that at all and to seem to have a slant, like it often happens with reporting from Italy.
41
There is a coastal village in Italy with nearly its entire population Chinese. This is the price you pay when you want it all. Made in Italy ( by Chinese Italian slaves )
4
Did the author point out that the vaunted italian leather-goods industry, including hand-made shoes and bags, has long been taken over by Chinese workers who routinely taxi between Italy and China. Italy thus has a much larger permanent and transient population of Chinese than other parts of Europe, and, it being Italy, this group is most certainly largely undocumented.
94
@American in Germany
Northern Italy clothing factory in Prato with Chinese workers flown-in could be a source of the contagion. What is mysterious that this flu virus now popping-up in Iran and Egypt. Some 30 countries have reported similar flu virus cases. Only 12 deaths outside China with most people over 80 years old; some with previous medical conditions. So this flu epidemic if over by the Spring will be seen in context; no need to panic yet? A vaccination will be ready for next winter?
8
@Simon Cardew
By the spring? That's a big optimistic if.
The SARS outbreak stared in november 2002 and ended in july 2003. With "only" 8000 cases overall. July, not march. And keep in mind the seasons are reversed in the southern hemisphere.
Regarding the vaccine, was one found and tested for SARS?
9
@American in Germany A fair point but the reported cases were not in Prato (Tuscany), but in Lombardy and Veneto.
9
Had Tedros from WHO taken this coronavirus seriously back in early Jan, this may have not been as spread out. Instead he refused to call it a global health emergency until Jan 30. Bravo!
Countries should bar travel entry from China and those who have travelled to China in the past 2-4 wks to play it safe. Otherwise, outbreaks such as what we see in Italy will happen and will be difficult to control resulting a lockdown of a whole city.
Let's hope the U.S will maintain travel ban until this is under control.
28
They already brought people from the Princess Diamond infected with the Coronavirus back into the US. I don't know that a travel ban will help at this point.
16
The WHO is capable of very little as it is a bureaucracy with multiple stakeholders. Just halting China travel ain’t going to contain it either
2
the caes in Italy has no connection with China. None of the Italians who came back from China have the antibodies of the virus, meaning, they were not exposed. None of the people who contracted the virus in Italy had any contact with China. Zero.
Actually, the authorities here in Italy have been quite clear at a national and local level about how to conduct one's personal business concerning the flu.
9
Arrived in Milan yesterday ,for a long planned trip through northern Italy. The city is busy and crowded, with virtually no protective masks. That being said, the proximate presence of the virus is in our heads, and we are debating an early exit. Hello
Switzerland? But not before getting my fill of pizza/pasta.
17
Prepare some masks but don’t buy much more than necessary. It will be wise to reroute your trip a bit. Wishing you the best.
9
@Rz There are no cases reported in Milan. It is good to be cautious but Lombardia is taking no chances and might have limited the virus to those small towns south of the city. What's happening in Italy is good news, not bad.
5
take all the necessary precautions. Just note that Italy and Switzerland are both in Schengen, meaning there is free circulation of people and goods. So at the border in Switzerland there is no control, and many Italians travel there every morning to go to work. So, if you want to reroute, you could either go south, to Toscany or to Rome or Campania, Umbria, and the other beautiful regions in the South, or go really north, to Zurich, Basel, Luzern.
1
The epidemic can be contained as long as health authorities here and internationally make the correct and timely decisions independent of politics and economic considerations. So far, on these fronts the news has not been encouraging. The World Health Association was given permission by China to enter China and help out last week mid-week and were said to be arriving late weekend. The CDC here has not been allowed into China and a clear plan has not been annunciated by them for this nation. They all seem to be winging it. That worries me. More attention was given in these pages to the Nevada Caucuses than a pandemic. Not a lot is known yet about the virus or its infectivity and lethality. I should add that, though a medical doctor, my specialty is not infectious disease or epidemiology.
31
@alan brown, "I should add that, though a medical doctor, my specialty is not infectious disease or epidemiology."
So then your statement, "The epidemic can be contained as long as health authorities here and internationally make the correct and timely decisions independent of politics and economic considerations," is a belief, not an infectious disease specialist's or epidemiologist's opinion, right? Because the epidemiologists do not make the statement you made.
6
@alan brown - This is just one case to observe but the first American case was here in the local area. The man flew back from Wuhan at the very, very beginning of this outbreak. He felt a little ill when he got off of the plane but a LOT of people have that experience.
While watching the news, he saw the report about the virus and called his doctor to be on the super safe side even though he had not visited the wet-market while there. He wasn't sick enough to call in the first place but just wanted to play it extra safe.
His doctor moved him to a regional hospital in the county north of Seattle to a city the size of South Bend, IN. And the hospital gets a whopping 2.8 star review on the internet. I wouldn't want to have a baby there:))
He was NOT moved to either Harborview Hospital or the University of Washington Hospital which are the top in the state. Harborview specializes in trauma like combine accidents on the farm or huge pile-ups on I-5. The UW is a research hospital.
The only reason he was being kept in the hospital was for observation. He never got sick enough for treatment.
He is male, Asian-American, and about 30 years old.
He is believed to have come into contact with about 43 people (besides everyone on the plane and all of Sea-Tac airport) but I have not read of anyone else being quarantined.
This is just one case but I hope it adds a little to the discussion.
7
@ondelette You are largely correct but I do not hear or read a clear message from ID or epidemiologists and no governmental statement has been made to date and I follow this closely. When the history of this is written I do not believe governments and health care bodies I believe will not get high marks. I certainly hope I am mistaken. It won't be the first time.
1
Sometimes, it’s good to be literally in the middle of nowhere. More importantly, the Words Pandemic and Trump combined should make us ALL very afraid. Imagine the possibilities for stupidity.
Seriously.
224
@Phyliss Dalmatian
My wife and I have canceled a Baltic cruise for this June because:
1. Most cruise lines reserve the right to alter or curtail the schedule/itinerary without refunds; and cancel-for-any reason insurance will be about half the cost of the cruise.
2. We are both over 70 and thus at higher risk of becoming seriously ill or even dying from COVID-19 if we catch it.
3. In the best of times cruise ships are floating Petri dishes that easily spread noroviruses; note the current COVID-19 transmissions on the Diamond Princess.
4. While our cruise ports are in countries that now have fewer than 25 cases, the coronavirus could become a pandemic affecting thousands in many countries, including those on our itinerary. Our nightmare scenario is that we or other passengers contract the disease aboard or in port. Do we want to be treated or quarantined on the ship or in Latvia or Estonia or Russia or Finland or Denmark, where Medicare is not accepted? No way.
For us the medical/financial risks are just too great, so for 2020 we are planning to limit our travel to US destinations we can reach easily by car or short flights.
Over time we will evaluate the coronavirus situation and see how cruise lines and foreign countries are coping. There’s always next year.
My comments are not medical advice, which readers should seek from their doctors. For travel advice, talk to your travel agent, carrier and insurance agent.
6
@Phyliss Dalmatian Since there's no such place as 'nowhere' it is impossible to be literally in the middle of it.
5
This virus will continue to spread across the world and cause MAJOR ECONOMIC DISRUPTION. It will get way, WAY worse before the situation improves. Stocks will begin a LONG STEADY SLIDE as the economic disruption multiplies exponentially.
28
@johninlansing529
We will find out how dependent we are on goods and parts from China. Unfortunately, those goods may include medical supplies, medications and many chemicals. I certainly hope that China is able to contain the virus--many of its actions point to more widespread and serious problems than the statistics that it releases.
21
@johninlansing529, more people have died of this disease than American service members have died in Afghanistan in the whole war there. I think maybe the human toll is worthy of attention before we worry about all the money people are or aren't getting because of it.
4
@johninlansing529
Stop yelling.
If the virus spreads across the world, the economy is really the least of my concerns.
Maybe it would have been a good idea to think also about the drawbacks of globalization, instead of only profits. But even now, some people seem to be only interested in stocks. How sad.
So, tell us, what's the effect of the 80000 coronavirus cases on your assets? Do you think the 2500 deceased care about it?
13
The Five Star Movement is an anti-vaxx party whose founder has been peddling pseudo-scientific idiocy for years. Italy has had a terrible resurgence of measles as a direct result of its shockingly low vaccination rate. Italy's flu vaccination rates are equally low, which means that Italian hospitals are already dealing with large numbers of flu victims, many of whom would not have needed to be hospitalized had they been vaccinated.
It is so very fitting that Lombardy, birthplace of Five Star, is in a panic over an epidemic. The ghastly irony is right up there with speculation that pangolins were a source of the outbreak in China.
110
@Candace Kalish Yes, Italy has one of the highest rates of measles in Europe. Along with France, the highest in western Europe. The CDC has a warning about it on their website.
13
@Candace Kalish this is the kind of comment that spread fear with no reason. What you are saying is old news, the Govt about two years ago prevented children of any age to enter school nation wide if not vaccinated and the rate of measles decreased going back to previous one: among of the best in Europe
As per Corona virus, Italy was the first to totally stop flights from and to China and implemented a wide spread tests. This is reason why more cases were discovered, is just a matter of time and the same will happen in other countries in Europe that did not take the matter as seriously.
28
The age of the internet is the age of worry. Who hasn’t felt a pain in the side and went on the internet to check what it means and of course the internet will tell you it’s cancer or some such thing and to make out your will.
My father, who fought in the battle of the bulge and went on to live a long life never worried about anything and he sure as hell wouldn’t care one hoot about this, of course he never spent even one minute on the internet, though he loved TV., though not the news.
The internet is turning us all into panicked easily frightened fatalists. Bad news has always traveled fast, it now travels at the speed of thought or as long as it takes to type and press submit.
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@Lonnie Agree. Media sensationalism & exaggeration in reporting nearly always results on false representations & panic. Not to second guess or play with Mother Nature, I do believe panic is humanity’s worst enemy, travels faster than a virus & makes things more difficult. Sometimes the pandemic of fear is worse than a spreading illness.
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@Lonnie I've had the flu a number of times during my life. My doctor examined me and his nurses attended to me without feeling the need to don hazmat suits and face shields.
Despite extraordinary measures to contain the virus, it continues to spread. Clearly there is reason to be concerned.
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@Robert
Well, first, there's a vaccine every year for the flu. Not perfect, but significant protection.
Second, this virus apparently has a fatality rate that is around 25x that of the flu.
Hence the precautions.
17
I just couldn't believe this news! I lived in Milan for 6 years and have a ticket to visit on the 10th of March. I had spoken with my friend in Shanghai back in January about visiting China (at the start of the epidemic) and she vehemently told me NO! I NEVER thought that Northern Italy would be a problem, in fact I kept telling myself that I was glad to be going far away from any worries regarding traveling. And in addition to Milan, I have plans to visit my friend in...Veneto! So I'm shocked and worried about my trip AND my friends that live in the affected zone. As of now there's no news on air travel but if I had been confirmed to leave today, I would most certainly NOT have wanted to go, what with schools and government offices closed! Government offices close and tourists can arrive at Malpensa Airport without worry? How does THAT make sense? So I'm watching diligently and hoping that the crisis passes and if not that Emirates will contact me with options to postpone my visit. In the meantime, I can't stop worrying about my friends in both Shanghai and now Italy, and wonder what it would have felt like had I still been living there, in a zone of a viral epidemic.
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Left Venice just yesterday and things were normal. Also traveled in Milan a few days before. No problems. See the comments on how limited the testing is being in the US. Not a single case in New York? I would be more worried about living in New York, very well possibly the virus is unreported, then traveling to Italy where they actually do the testing.
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@Kim This is exactly right. This entire article is nonsense. Italy sprung into action immediately and most likely contained it to a handful of small towns, and they know where it started. In a month, Milan will be free of any danger but New York will be closed.
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@ManhattanWilliam Things change very very quickly in a pandemic. Read up on it. Cancel your trip. For all its about survival.
1
When there's no quarantine and lethal diseases just spread naturally from East Asia westward, they follow a wave pattern that can be modeled by a Fitzhugh-Nagumo equation system. With all these changes - global interconnectedness through air travel and multi-million person quarantines, I wonder how it will model. It seems like it will act as usual plus something that looks like a second wave starting from numerous points around the world.
Anybody know how they're modeling this one?
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@ondelette Small World Network growth. Which is why cutting edges between distant nodes, as in reducing flights, is so important.
3
What is Trump doing to prepare for an outbreak here?
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@Christopher Unclear. What is Sean Hannity telling him to do? Seriously though, Stephen Miller will probably convince him to close all borders to all foreigners.
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@Christopher Oh don't worry. The Federal reserve will lower rates over more time and pump more money into the markets to keep stocks up.
That's the only problem Trump cares to solve.
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@Rich the problem is that when you notice the problem, it will be Americans infected, not foreigners. In Italy, at least what i read, they can't find direct connection to China...
1
They're working on a vaccine but it is in its experimental stages and won't be available to the public for at least one year. It might become a super bug within that time. Our government is getting involved in trying to find the cure. I think there is a lack of confidence worldwide in any nation finding a cure so all nations are at least trying to find a cure. Can you trust what China is saying as China is a communist nation. China is now trying to say it wasn't started in that market place and has been around since November or December, last year. There's an experimental virus laboratory, in China, not far from that market. Can you trust China to tell the whole story.
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@CK A superbug is a bacterium resistant to common antibiotics. Since this is a virus, we can guarantee it won’t be a superbug.
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Meanwhile, in upstate NY. It’s as if COVID 19 doesn’t exist. Full displays of hand sanitizer, gloves ... all untouched. Everyone shrugs when I bring it up. I’ve been preparing since I read about this highly transmissible virus in mid January & connected the dots. I’ve got an elderly father in law I care for, so I need to really make sure we have meds, vitamins and ways to sanitize. It will take him out if he gets it - he’s got congestive heart failure.
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I have always been weirdly fascinated by flu epidemics. I first became interested when I watched a honeymooners episode in which Trixie talks about “ the big flu epidemic “ there was a big flu epidemic that hit the world in 1957( the Asian Flu), and then another big one 10 years later( the Hong Kong Flu). Both were very similar to this new Corona virus, most of the people who died , perished from pneumonia, mostly older people and people with underlying health conditions. i once asked m father about those two Pandemics, he said he didn’t even remember them, and he guessed people just assumed they were the regular flu. We now have 24 hour news , and an interconnected world where anybody with a cellphone can break a story, and the level of panic that feeds out of social media where fear mongering is a sport.
I wonder why people are so afraid of this particular virus, which doesn’t seem anywhere as lethal as either of those Pandemics, I guess it is a sign of the times, and people are much more fearful these days which comes out of a lack of trust with our institutions and lack of spirituality in general . Both those Pandemics were treated as a case of a bad flu , hundreds of thousands caught it, and most recovered just fine, and got about with their lives, there were no massive quarantines.
Times change and the biggest change is in a human race which has become nihilistic as well as easily panicked. some time too much news is a bad thing.
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@Lonnie
Some true in this influenza, kills about 400,000 people every year, including 34,200 Americans last flu season and 61,099 the year before but China totals yester day were infected more than 76,000 people and resulted in 2,300 deaths and they will be higher today. It is spreading at an alarming rate and you do not want is coming your way.
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@Lonnie I think you're right. People seem to be using something like the 1918 Spanish Flu as a metric. Almost 25 million people died in the first 6 months.
The Chinese keep changing their parameters for reporting data. It seems that some large percentage of cases are mild or even "assumed" unreported.
Many questions. Little useful data.
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@Lonnie The new virus is 20 times as lethal as flu, by some estimates, and there is no vaccine yet. That’s why people are talking about it.
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Knowing what a germaphobe Mr. Trump is, I am surprised that he didn’t cancel his trip to India. But since they don’t share a border with China - no problem (sarcasm).
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@JCAZ sarcasm granted, but they do share a border though
1
@marsha
Yeah but Trump probably doesn't know that. He probably thinks he is giving a rally in Indiana.
3
Clearly this virus is a disaster for the world. In health, economics and social activities.
And yet there are no virtually no comments from US based NY Times readers. One at last count. Why?
Are Americans playing ostriches or do they think the USA will not be affected?
Now that it is in Italy in such big numbers it will be incredible if it is not already across Europe and into the USA.
We wonder what will cause the next US share market crash. Maybe coronavirus will be the catalyst.
In our businesses as of today we are unfortunately and reluctantly laying off people in the expectation that the affects on our customers purchasing our goods and services will deteriorate significantly and may not improve for the remainder of the year.
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@GeoffL
Americans, including me, have posted literally thousands of comments on the coronovirus since the NYT started its excellent coverage of this incredibly dangerous virus. That coverage started weeks ago, the reporting has been consistent and the reaction from readers is exactly what one would expect: concern. Considerable concern.
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@GeoffL I completely agree with you. This virus will cause the crash (see my comment).
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They are very concerned, however, it’s the middle of the night and most are asleep.
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I am in healthcare. For those who commented we are at a high alert. Travel history is now become an important routine. Any infection that looks unusual is being watched/pursed and this on top of high Flu activity. The health departments are regularly giving guidance on a weekly basis. We are assessing supplies at both local and regional levels. We know it will be challenging to manage this outbreak. But we are not unprepared.
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The virus from China from swine flu, bird flu, and now cover-19 how many things or how many viruses from China is people in the streets WU without a mask will be executed. And then China requested the world health organization start to investigate and cure the virus even they have not asked the United States for help this is very dangerous it seems like China's is holding a gun to the world's head and fire the shot that's heard around the world the Chinese Communist Party cannot be that dumb to know when they have epidemic that could be just as bad as the Spanish flu in 1911.
As seems cooperation for the whole world to come together and find the cure.
I believe the reports I've been hearing millions will die with upper restoration infections from the virus.
Please China listens to the world for once not political differences American people hold out their hands for help to you.
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@Rick Johnson
The latest Swine Flu epidemic originated in the US in 2009....
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@Sean No, it originated in Mexico. It was first detected in the US.
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“In France, the new health minister, Olivier Veran, stressed the country’s preparedness, saying it would significantly ramp up its testing.”
And who exactly is the “health minister “ of the United States? Do we even have one? If we do they have been awfully silent. We have heard Trump speak about the virus only once or twice and in that to praise the leader of the country where it originated , for doing a great job.
If it’s in Italy, why shouldn’t we assume it’s in the United States ?
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@Lonnie It was reported that, being criticized for keeping the passengers in a dense circumstances with infected passengers for a long time, the government announced that the US asked Japan to quarantine the US passengers on the cruise ship.
So, there must be somebody overseeing it.
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@Lonnie
Trump named a task force two or three weeks ago. The head is HHS secretary Alex Azar and includes CDC head Dr. Redfield, Dr. Anthony Fauci from NIH, Ken Cuccinelli from Homeland Security, someone from State, someone from Transportation and maybe a couple of others. They had one press conference shortly after being named and nothing since. The CDC had a press briefing on Friday which is available as an audio file or a transcript on the CDC website. If anything is going on, it is rather stealthy. That is "if."
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@Lonnie - I believe we are assuming it's here - actions speak louder than words. I stopped at Costco for bottled water Sunday evening - there were only a few cases left.
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CDC & WHO should now ask and direct citizens to prepare (ready.gov) for an imminent global pandemic.
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“Before a Pandemic
• Store a two week supply of water and food.
• Periodically check your regular prescription drugs to ensure a continuous supply in your home.
• Have any nonprescription drugs and other health supplies on hand, including pain relievers, stomach remedies, cough and cold medicines, fluids with electrolytes, and vitamins.
• Get copies and maintain electronic versions of health records from doctors, hospitals, pharmacies and other sources and store them, for personal reference. Get help accessing electronic health records.
• Talk with family members and loved ones about how they would be cared for if they got sick, or what will be needed to care for them in your home.
During a Pandemic
• Limit the Spread of Germs and Prevent Infection
• Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
• When you are sick, keep your distance from others to protect them from getting sick too.
• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing. It may prevent those around you from getting sick.
• Washing your hands often will help protect you from germs.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth.
• Practice other good health habits. Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious food.
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Thank you! The website you gave, READY(dot)GOV has excellent information.
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Also: wear gloves, regular dress gloves, when outside, and if you remove them for social reasons, wash your hands before putting them back on. Fortunately, it’s winter, so this will not seem as weird.
Stay 3 feet away from other people wherever possible.
Learn not to touch your face.
Get at least 8 hours of sleep every night.
Avoid crowded public situations when you have alternatives, like walking instead of a two-stop bus ride.
Don’t touch the most frequently-used public hard surfaces with bare hands: doorknobs, elevator buttons. Use elbows, pull down your sleeves, wear those knit or kid gloves.
3
Here is the news content:
Italy has recorded a spike in covid19 infections and the government took all the measures deemed necessary, including closing down certain population centres and the Venice Carneval to contain its spreading.
Full stop.
No need to overdramatise, no need to take a swipe at China (again and again) in general terms, please, PLEASE don’t politicise an event that affects us all.
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@waldo
It may well have been better for Beijing to have done a full blown cover up. They get accused of the worst anyway. If the virus is wide spread, there may actually more cooperation and politics.
6
@waldo hyperventilating for this disease this time seems to include microtrigger paranoia about anti-Chinese isms. The Chinese don't act anywhere near that non-ism towards others, and it would be a good thing if they were sufficiently shamed by this that they did something about their black markets in rare animals freshly killed.
20
No cases in New Zealand yet, though it is our summer and we'll probably get it in winter as viruses thrive in damp and cold conditions. Though in saying that our Prime Minister has extended the 8 day travel ban for flights from China, for another 8 days, and the Chinese government is not happy about it. I just read that the Chinese government said it wasn't started in the market and they think it was introduced from elsewhere and has been around since last November or December. Citizen Joe Bloggs can't even find face masks to buy and we even have a factory that makes NZ approved surgical face masks.
We're going into autumn so we'll probably get it during the flu season. Tourism is our nations main export earnings. And our biggest export market to China has lots of cancelled orders. And Air New Zealand has cancelled Chinese flights as a preventative measure.
I've noticed all the shelves in the supermarket are getting run down, especially in hospital grade disinfectant.
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@CK
It may be more sun exposure and vitamin D levels rather than cold conditions.