So because Japan failed to take immediate action the people onboard were able to mingle and that is how the virus spread, as well as perhaps through the air conditioning system. And it seems now in Japan there is not a hospital facility available to take affected patients in a timely manner. Sadly this is the failure of such a universal healthcare system. In an emergency as they are usually full capacity to begin with one is not taken care of and in the case of the Abels it could prove fatal. Now both with pneumonia and languishing on the ship.
12
Cruise ships generally seem like a special type of hell. Locked into a metal vessel with throngs of strangers, buffet meals, and inane rec programs with no escape. What is the appeal exactly?
473
@GR Attempting to understand the views of others is the first step toward understanding. If you'd really like to know why so many like cruise ships, just search for "cruise" on Youtube.
I would say that cruising is appealing for precisely the reason that people like any kind of luxury: others take care of your needs.
24
@GR I have been on cruises in China, to Alaska and around the Mediterranean.
The first was very good and the other two were outstanding. I think of a cruise ship as a luxurious, floating hotel that takes me from adventure to adventure (and even country to country) without my having to pack and unpack every day or two. The food on the ship in China was good and on the Alaska and Mediterranean ships was as good as at a high-end US restaurant.
I have just canceled a June cruise around the Baltic out of concern that the coronavirus problem might become a pandemic, but as soon as the pandemic ends (and I hope a vaccine will become available) I will re-book my trip.
In the meantime, which could be up to a year or even longer, I will take trips that involve driving and, perhaps, very short domestic plane flights.
35
@GR I was hospitalized for two months with a spinal infection in recent years and felt so free when finally discharged that a cruise would be the LAST voluntary experience I would choose! Very similar to hospitals.
37
Somehow, the idea of paying large sums of money for the privilege of being encapsulated in a beehive for weeks, with other humans, is foreign to me. I've been on one cruise, a quite small one for 8 days on the Rhine, with roughly 110 people. It was good for the food, but it certainly wasn't anything I would want to do again.
301
Me too. The lure of the cruise has somehow not infected me.
42
@Ernest Montague
"idea of paying large sums of money "
The idea that one must pay "large sums" to get on a cruise is patently false. Check the prices for 5-7 day cruises from Miami or Fort Lauderdale. Part of the attraction for people is that a large amount of money isn't needed to get on a ship. You don't like cruising? Well good for you! That's why Baskin and Robbins has 31 flavors. I've been on cruises as both a worker and paying passenger and I've generally found that people love the cruising experience.
33
@Ernest Montague I know what you mean. I took a very short (3-4 day) cruise from LA to Ensenada, and a 2 week river cruise in Europe. It was OK but I still don't understand the attraction of cruising (not that I denigrate those who do enjoy it... truthfully I wish I did). Now, however, it seems like contagion is more of a worry than I would ever have thought in the past. A local senior community that has plenty of wide open spaces where people do not need to get that close together, cancelled all group activities, including the dining room, when there was a flu outbreak. It's horrifying that the cruise line (or the Japanese gov't - whoever is responsible) did not do more. I feel the people stuck on the ship were lab rats.
37
I believe there are only two ways to be certain of getting rid
of President Trump in November.
A total stock market collapse or a massive outbreak in the red states of this new virus.
I personally am in favor of the stock market collapse, but beggars can't be choosers, and first things first, so ...
64
@A. Stanton And here I thought I was the only one with such thoughts....
24
@Mike S. A more likely scenario - he will grasp it as a reason to delay the election due to national emergency and risk of people being in close contact during voting - good time for him to make himself President (ruler) for life.
13
@A. Stanton
Trump critics are not healthy individuals and need serious help.
9
Trump and Pandemic. Those two words, together, instill nausea and fear in an informed Person.
Seriously.
15
Anybody remember this?:
CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak (February 1, 2018)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdc-to-cut-by-80-percent-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/
Smaller government has consequences. I'm afraid we're about to get a close-up look at some of them.
34
This was not a situation for the cruise line to handle but rather the Japanese government which chose to quarantine the ship with no real plan for how to do it, administer it, or test for the illness.
And reading that Trump is “furious” at the Americans being returned to the US without his “permission” made me gag after hearing him at Davos bray “ we have a plan” when questioned about the virus which was just another lie from the moronic buffoon. A real President would have had our gov. Working on the fact of stranded Americans immediately but an incompetent who appoints incompetents didn’t.
24
Chinese government is not elected by people, they are actually CCP (Chinese communist Party). They cover up 10 times of the infected number at least. The real infected number should be over one million. The internet is block from outside world, no real news can come out from China. CCP also arrested whoever telling the truth. WHO is corrupted by CCP, they are just CCP's dog.I believe they took bribe from CCP., they always cover up CCP's lie.
10
Japan’s bureaucracy always comes up short when taking on the task of disaster management. 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake,
2011 Tsunami/ earthquake / nuclear disaster.
Coronovirus.
5
So SHAMEFUL that Japan is receiving criticism for being the lone country that cared enough to allow the Diamond Princess Cruise ship to dock at its port !!! Not only has Japan exposed its citizens, government workers and health personnel to the risks associated with contracting the corona virus, Japan has also incurred enormous expenses and economic hardship in doing so. Imagine that the United States had been concerned enough for the crew and passengers, to graciously accept the Diamond Princess in New York or San Francisco. I believe even the United States, with all of our resources, would have had extreme difficulty in administering to the thousands of passengers, who most likely had already been exposed to the virus prior to reaching Japan. Instead of wasting our energy on judging those who are actually on the ground fighting this crisis, we should consider how we might be able to help all those affected by this tragedy!
24
Wonder if the cruise ship industry after this virus will go the way of the zeppelin industry after that fire in New Jersey in 1937...
7
If you've bought tickets for the 2020 Olympics I hope you also bought insurance.
9
Just remember that when Trump was asked about the coronvirus in Savos, he brayed "we have a plan" and dropped the topic. So once again, failure of leadership at all levels and another lie from the Orange Beast because when the US was faced with a decision in regard to moving the American passengers there was NO PLAN in regard to transporting the 14 obviously ill passengers separate from the ones who appear to be well. Meanwhile the fat load used AF1 as a prop last weekend to entertain the crowd at the Daytona 500 while a group of people from HHS and the State Dept. were flailing trying to decide whether or not to use a separate plane for the sick passengers.
This is what happens when a mentally ill buffoon is in the WH and the people who are supposed to be running various departments are incompetent toadies with all of the acumen of Jared Kushner and his vacuous wife. The buffoon has gutted agencies personnel-wise and financially and that's why the US is not prepared for this emergency on the ship nor are we prepared to handle thousands of cases of this illness.
35
everyone keeps talking about hvac filters and how different filters could have solved the problem, what really could have solved it is if all these geniuses did not board a cruise ship at the beginning of a virus epidemic at the start of it's cycle in that part of the world, no brainer!!!
just cause you are to cheap to give up a ticket you would rather go risk your life and your families and then possibly risk others lives by bringing it back to your country of origin, selfish.
8
Some US, Taiwan and Europe-based researchers assert that the Wuhan coronavirus is inextricably linked to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. “Given China’s poor track record with lab safety management and overall lab culture, it is highly likely that a virus escaped from the facility” said Fang Chi-tai (方啟泰). “Analyses of COVID-19 have shown that is has a 96 percent genetic similarity with an RaTG13 bat virus at the institute”, Fang said. While viruses need to be at least 99 percent similar to call them “the same,” it is the differences in particular that have led researchers to speculate that COVID-19 was manufactured by modifying RaTG13, Fang said.
A French research team that examined the gene sequence of COVID-19 has discovered that it has four more amino acids than other coronaviruses, adding that this makes its transmission easier. The findings have led some in the research community to speculate about whether China’s scientists intended to develop a virus more difficult to contain than SARS, he said. If that was their intent, they appeared to have succeeded, he added. Mutations of viruses that occur naturally only result in small, singular changes, he said, adding that one would not normally see a naturally mutated virus suddenly take on four amino acids. Source: Taipei Times 22 February.
14
Nuclear disasters, virus plagues, demanding the accused not talk to their wives: wherever one looks, the veneer of Japanese “communality, hey we’re all okay, so very competent, at peace and working together for the ‘right’ cause,” shows itself to be a sick farce.
Is there anything Japan can get right, other than making cars (if you leave aside exploding airbag canisters that kill)?
1
Quarantines are not designed to protect the people being quarantined. They are designed to protect everyone else.
It was foolish to pull these people off the boat. The US government needs to make a decision: quarantine or do nothing.
Right now, intentionally bringing sick people into the country, is making things worse.
7
The NYT has been, just like the US government, CDC, all US media and much of the world, completely dropping the ball on the largest event in the history of any person alive today.
As if this cruise shop matters in the big scheme of things. Epidemics are popping out of nowhere all over the place, Iran, Sough Korea, Italy, and this will continue happening until we are all affected and likely infected.
When this virus passes through, the world will be likely something completely different than it was at the beginning of this year.
But for now, the NYT publishes 'stories" like this one. or the one about the events in Nevada today.
I have a feeling that today's news in the NYT will in November 2020 matter as little as the lunch menu of the Austrian Archduke published in the papers on the day he was shot in Sarajevo mattered in November 1914.
Humanity's ship has hit a massive iceberg, is taking on water, the ship is slowly sinking, the band is playing, so let us continue to discuss how best to arrange the deck chairs, while we still can, shall we?
Because we do not have enough life boats anyway. So why worry?
10
Lots of blame to go around.
A cruise ship isn’t big enough and doesn’t have enough crew to activate safe quarantine measures for a highly contagious disease.
Japan should have evacuated the ship and quarantined everyone on shore, within two or three days after the docking. This was a failure on Japan’s part. The cruise ship’s parent company should have insisted on it.
And the US Government should have stepped in earlier to protect its citizens.
10
Trump may be able to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it but there’ll be severe consequences if he were to sneeze or cough on someone. Do I have this right?
2
There goes the cruise industry.
6
Luxury cruise ship is an oxymoron, no?
4
The virus is in the US and I’ll be very surprised if it doesn’t spread. Think of how many people you touch in a crowded airport. One sick person could infect several and since they will be infectious before they show symptoms they will infect others. Given the stigma attached I’m sure some people will cover up the fact that they’re sick, or claim it’s just the regular flu. There’s also the fact that the Trump administration and the president himself, lies and lies. I’m not sure they’ll be any more honest than the Chinese government has been.
6
What the crew of the “ Diamond Princess” endured and overcame during this debacle was nothing short of heroic. I certainly hope the management comes through with appropriate bonuses and paid time off for all of them. Not holding my breath though.
22
How can you forget to mention the princess cruise is US company and diamond princess is UK registered ship?? Well I guess all rich & powerful people must be shareholders of princess cruise.
By law, inside ship is UK territory. If Japan turned them away, the country who received the ship must have been blamed for not quarantining the ship for 72 hours? How captain or cruise company didn’t even think to stop all these buffets, events, parties & casino!
It’s almost funny to see US and cruise company are trying to throw all the responsibilities to Japan.
13
Remind me not to go on a cruise.
5
Three unknowns make it much more difficult to contain coronavirus than any government authorities (US and otherwise) have acknowledged:
1. Unknown incubation time:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-updates/2020/02/22/72dd19de-54ea-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html
2. Flawed virus tests:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763
3. Asymptomatic transmission: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-study/wuhan-woman-with-no-symptoms-infects-five-relatives-with-coronavirus-study-idUSKBN20G00J
You could test negative and show no symptoms for weeks and still be a carrier.
We also don't know how long the virus can survive on surfaces, and whether disinfectants are as effective as claimed.
Given these unknowns, the only truly effective means of halting transmission is a 60-day quarantine based on evidence of exposure to people or places that have been exposed. No exceptions.
How many countries are going to follow such a policy? Singapore?
11
It looks like the report is intentionally avoiding to touch upon the facts such as Japanese Government did not hold control over the management of the ship before it entered into Yokohama Port.
So, who held the management of the party after the ship left Okinawa and before reaching at Yokohama?
Japanese Government could say no to Diamond Princess to come to any port in Japan but the owner of the ship was the one did not fulfill its responsibility.
It's okay now. No matter what, it's now obvious that no one could save it because those once inspected as negative can turn positive after a while.
Then, who can identify the borderline betwenn those who can get off and those who can't?
3
Australia evacuated a hundred plus passengers all cleared and passed the tests. All were put into Quarantine in Australia - already after a few days six have now tested positive for the Coronavirus. Clearly all ex passengers are potential incubators and some who walked out into Japan will spread it as will those on the flights back to America. No point criticising the Japanese officials - look at the photo of the America flight as bureaucrats overruled the CDC.... pandemic is coming.
10
If there really exists a World Heath Organization, they need to first make a formal request to visit the P4 lab near Wauhan China. If denied, NATO or a Coalition of Military needs to capture the Lab. The Coronavirus may be found in a Ultra Low Freezer in the Lab. It should be marked with a date to prove it was developed before it presented in a Person. Let's please do this.
4
This article clearly documents a series of errors made by people representing various professions from both Japan and the USA, in an electronic age and culture in which valid information is available and accessible. Very, very quickly. Almost instantaneously.
The necessary framework, in whatever language and variations is well known.
Gather the necessary, relevant data as quickly as possible. Analyze it appropriately. As quickly as possible. while protecting ALL of the sources, in as “sterile” an environment as is possible. Since boat staff are not infectious disease experts, the company can send the boats dimensions to CDC-WHO, and the Japanese experts to quickly determine how to minimize virus transmission. If necessary materials are not on the boat they are brought quickly. During this waiting period people are given information and other needed help designed to minimize stress, and the anxieties associated with uncertainties.
Relevant clothes are distributed to all in need;are “at risk” of receiving and transmitting. Staffs and voyagers.
Analyzed data screens the infected who are then “intervened” with by an expanded staff gathered from various sources.Part of an effective battle plan being implemented with necessary human and nonhuman resources. Humans who can create nuclear energy, carrying out bombing civilians,land on the moon,have daily experience in “Fail better,” can quickly and effectively mobilize, creating available and accessible insights and understandings.
3
CCP China did nothing for several months, now they have pandemic level. Japan, South Korea, and Italy had or have a very lousy disease control, now they have hundred cases.
TAIWAN is remarkable with only 28 cases. Since the beginning of the virus spread they have a very strict control.
3
Is it too soon to update the covid-19 article “How Bad Will It Get”? I wonder if the colored bar, noting covid-19’s possible ranges on infections and lethality, might be narrowed by now.
2
Two observations. The first is that air-conditioned premises are a closed breathing circuit, with much recirculated air, whether it's in an office building, a cruise ship, or an airliner. In all places, the population is concentrated in a small space. I still remember returning from New Delhi via London on an Air India 747 in 2008. A number of passengers had flu-like symptoms, and everyone n our group came down with a bad flu on our return to New York, whether immediately or several days later.
Then think of McKinley Cantor's novel "Andersonville," about a notorious Confederate prison camp in which 15,000 out of 45,000 Union prisoners died. It was an early instance of what later became known as a concentration camp, where large quantities of prisoners were concentrated in a small space with inadequate sanitary facilities. (This is distinct from murder camps, such as Auschwitz, although the bad sanitation blurs the distinction.)
Then think of the GOP and "religious right's" attitude, expressed during the AIDS epidemic, that AIDS was "God's judgment on gays." So you have the malign intent, now spread to a larger group of victims including the old, the poor, non-"whites," Muslims, non-"Christians," "illegal" immigrants, and on and on...all in total ignorance (or flauting) of an notion of public health. Not to mention defunding government agencies responsible for it.
9
Never trust politicians to do the work of scientists.
13
A horrible scenario has been going through my mind, as I see photos and videos of disinfectant being sprayed liberally in infected areas — and seemingly everywhere, in China. With all of this attention on a rogue virus, what if all of this sanitizing unleashes a rogue bacteria, immune to antibiotics? A MRSA on steroids? If you repeatedly sterilize vast swathes of the public areas in cities of millions, and the residents of those cities are sterilizing their homes daily, and slathering themselves with hand sanitizer, a lot of beneficial bacteria also dying, along with the harmful pathogens. We need those guys.
9
“The lack of a coordinated response in which genuine experts are responsible for decision making is problematic,” he said, ”because what happens instead is that you have political functionaries who are placed in roles of authority beyond their competency.”
Huh. Why does that feel all-too familiar?
5
If anyone doubts US officialdom is also capable mismanaging containment of this virus - all they have to do is look at the photo in this story - showing the ultra low tech barrier “system” failing to protect flight passengers from infected passengers.
7
I really don't think the spread of viral disease on cruise ships is much of a mystery. They have impoverished class workers in both food preparation and serving, and housecleaning.
First of all, if these employees are sick, at most they take one day off, and if they aren't very sick, they don't call in sick. (Eight enforced sick days a year don't fix that problem since it takes eight days to get over a single cold.) Do you know how often I've gotten stomach flu after eating at McDonalds (which I don't do very often). Many of these people don't even wash their hands. And often all they have to do is breathe or cough on the food.
It appears that most people with corona virus don't know they have it or aren't sick enough to see the doctor, the symptoms are often identical to other colds and the flu.
Second, now, I've done hotel housekeeping, and janitorial work. First, the disinfectants commonly used don't kill many of these viruses. Second, workers are never given enough rags and routinely use them to clean more than one guest room and more than one public bathroom.
Best way to avoid illness on a cruise ship, don't let housekeeping in your room, followed by bring your own food.
I honestly think it's a very silly and spoiled kind of person with way too much money to waste that goes on a cruise ship to begin with. Hard to have much sympathy for someone who would do that. There are far better and more entertaining ways to spend money.
6
Honestly. These ships are far too big. They are already like moving targets. And the bigger and more packed each of these gets, the more dangerous they are imho.
5
A globalized nightmare is brewing. Just how long do we have before the Coronavirus from Wuhan starts wreaking havoc here in the US? Two months, six months?
What happens to the 20% of people who develop severe complications, have to be hospitalized for weeks, and are financially ruined? Are we going to be marched off to cold gymnasiums to sleep on bare cots and eat stale MREs until we are dumped into a mass grave?
6
Speaking of the coronavirus and what this country should learn from it:
I am in favor of a Constitutional Amendment to go into effect immediately clarifying the circumstances under which Presidents can be removed from office; making it crystal clear that the House and Senate may, by acting jointly and by simple majority vote, expel a President from office for no reason at all, without any further trial or right of appeal, acting under the well established and frequently utilized rule for achieving a happy life, “Happy and relieved is the one who rids himself of a great pox.”
8
I think Trump voiced what some Americans think. Keep that foreign virus away from me. But Americans are a part of all of us earthlings and this virus will hit many of our homes no matter where we are, even maybe the White House.
1
Donald, who presumably studied epidemiology at Trump U., has assured America that this whole thing will have fizzled out by April. So what's all the fuss. Lets disparage US Intelligence professionals instead.
And expert n public health and viral mutation, the octogenarian plutocrat financier Wilbur Ross, has assured us it will bring jobs to America.
Such leadership.
13
The Japanese Ministry of Health has been criminally incompetent for decades, and no Prime Minister has been willing to clean house. The Health Ministry did not approve the sale of low dose birth control pills until 1999, forcing women to endanger their health for decades after low dose pills were available elsewhere. For many years, the Ministry prevented the sale of anti-osteoporosis medications, claiming (preposterously) that Japanese women don't get osteoporosis. The Ministry refused to allow the US Navy to deliver life saving medications to refugees from the 2011 tsunami, claiming (again preposterously) that American manufactures might formulate the medications differently than Japanese manufacturers. And then of course there were the thousands of hemophiliacs who contracted HIV in the 1980s because the Health Ministry did not require heat treatment of blood products despite knowing that such treatment would kill the virus.
While the current scandal saddens and enrages me, it does not surprise me.
12
Two thoughts: the Japanese government, like the Chinese with Li Wenliang, and probably most other governments and hierarchies, seemed to care more about censoring Kentaro Iwata and chain of command than protecting both those who are ill and those who are not.
The floating cities that are modern cruise ships (and keep getting larger) are indeed a petri dish. We already knew this with noroviruses. Between the huge number of passengers, the limited space and resources, the staff necessary to feed and cater to them all, it is no surprise that isolation is practically impossible, and contagion inevitable. Moreover, they make stops, spreading it in a less constrained way than flying. My mom recently went on one (thankfully no disease outbreak) and said it was basically a vacation eating and sleeping on board.
It might be time to rethink these types of transports.
11
Let's not forget how this started: with a trade in endangered exotic animals that governments should have been responsible enough to eradicate decades ago. It's the revenge of the pangolins.
30
Trump's 2017 budget for NIH proposed an 18% cut. The Agency for International Development 28%. Both departments responsible for dealing with infectious diseases.
Think of what we spend on military...now think of what devastation microbes can do. Micro invaders can be worse than macro invaders. The US wouldn't have so many Europeans without the diseases they/we brought that the indigenous people had no immunity to.
People are contagious before they know they are sick. To control it, everyone who has been exposed needs to be quarantined and tested. Are we putting all of our efforts to manufacture testing kits, set up more facilities to perform those tests? Are we preparing the necessary manufacture and distribution of protective gear?
Does the virus respond to the current anti virals?
10
@Sharon
Regarding your first paragraph:
Yes, but we have an EMERGENCY on our southern border!
2
There are 150 remaining ship passengers quarantined at Travis Air Force base in California. Their test results should be available starting on Sunday morning. The prediction is that 15% of them will test positive for the coronavirus. The plan is to disperse the positive patients, even if they have no symptoms, to local Northern California hospitals. The physician leadership at Northern California’s largest HMO received an email on Saturday stating that all hospitals in their system should expect to start admitting patients as early as Sunday. This ill-conceived plan will unnecessarily expose sick hospitalized patients and hospital staff - who have had no training with isolation equipment as of Sunday morning. A pandemic will surely ensue if the logistics continue to be left in the hands of administrators with little clinical experience and zero risk of exposure to themselves or their families.
16
Sadly, this article describes the very definition of incompetence. The medical crew on board had no clue about exposure control, the Japanese medical officers provided no relevant instructions or enforcement on/of containment protocols. When Americans tried to involve the CDC the official that responded ignored prior knowledge of disease spread in confined high density living quarters. The crew was housed in high density ‘barracks’ like conditions. The NIH, CDC, Walter Reed Army Hospital and universities in the US know all too well these conditions can make a mildly infectious disease spread through the confined population quickly. Sick crew members were commingled with healthy crew in four to a room bunks. These crew members prepared and dispensed food. The air handling system aboard ship is a semi-closed system with limited exchange for fresh air. The obvious happened.
7
As a public-health bureaucrat who was pressed into service at JFK airport for the thankfully largely non-existent Ebola response a few years, I can assure you that the response is made up as you go, with political considerations taking highest precedence.
26
@rgi " . . . made up as you go with political considerations taking highest precedence" pretty-much describes the nation's current chief executive's mantra and milieu similarly shared by the socialist confetti blowing out of the Democrat debate wind tunnel . . .
1
@rgi,
And since border protection is seen as a racist issue by many liberals, politicians respond only after an epidemic becomes unmanageable.
In fact, globalism and liberalism will destroy the human race.
2
It baffles me as to why it was a good idea quarrantine 1000+ passengers on a cruise ship with those infected with the contagious coronavirus. It doesn't take a genius to predict a poor outcome for the passengers. Would evacuating the ship in a controlled manner have been more prudent? IDK, I'm not a genius.
7
Really? “Ravaged”?
Enough with the hyperbolic language, already! It might have ruined some vacations, but the results seem not more dire than If the flu had stowed away onboard (which would likely have extracted a greater toll on a ship filled with seniors).
More measured and objective wording is desperately needed in the media.
10
It's hard to believe that this cruise was quarantined in Japan - a country with most fastidious cleanliness standards.
I am in Mumbai.
In 3 days, I travel to Bogotá on KLM via Amsterdam as a transit.
I am beginning to wonder if it is safe to travel.
3
I live in Tokyo and seeing and reading the daily reports it was obvious to me - an untrained person - that the Japanese Health Ministry didn't do the right thing from the start. Why not get input from the WHO, The Center for Disease Control and others instead of doing things on their own hoping for the best.
Now the fear is it's traveling around very populated areas and with the Olympics on their way, why mess around. It makes no sense...truly lost in translation...
5
Japanese government officials' actions regarding the Diamond Princess have evidently resulted in more people becoming infected and sickened by the new deadly coronavirus.
Since a certain percentage are likely to die as a result, this is grim news of entirely preventable deaths. Let's hope for the best.
While the top government officials deserve the appropriate penalties, unfortunately, their legal system is incapable of doing that. This goes to the illegitimacy of the Japanese government.
3
When passengers finally began to be evacuated from the ship, the article states: "Experts have questioned whether those passengers truly pose no risk to the general public. Some could develop symptoms later after having tested negative."
The use of the term EXPERTS is laughable. Any fool would have concluded the same.
5
Lessons are not being learned and applied to other real-world cases.
For instance, mid-terms are coming up and college students are getting sick, remaining in dorms and sticking it out. Being sick is not an excuse.
In my middle school, one teacher was laid up with the “worst flu” he had ever experienced. He went to urgent care this past Monday. They didn’t test him but told him he would be fine. He was back in school Wednesday, looking like death-on-wheels. High-stakes testing is coming up! Being sick is not an excuse.
If it’s here, it’s time to shut it down. Schools will still be here in the fall. Local leaders need to lead.
7
From a consumers prospective : Who would ever go on that ship again ?
That ship will be sold to another company and renamed.
5
I am wondering about connecting flights from nations who are lax in screening passengers eg Pakistan, India, Turkey etc. For examples hordes of people are descending in one of these countries as an indirect route into countries which have barred direct flights from China. The only question they are asked is ‘have you been in China in the last 15 days’ and relies on answers based on trust.
What if some of these have been in Vietnam or Iran in the past 15 days? I have a gut sense that we are at a stage where this spread is uncontrolled and every nation has to prepare for the epidemic!
4
What is not being emphasized is the data from this "Petri dish" experiment. One major point is the rate of spread of the virus. Most importantly is the mortality rate of the virus. The mortality rate is best viewed as the number who have died from the virus divided by the number who have survived the virus and are now virus free. All those with active disease are still at risk to die. This will be a sample of disease outside of Wuhan. And it seems as medical care was not great as people were left in their cabin for days with temps of 104 degrees. I project two results. Wuhan will have death rate of about 3 to 4% when all is done, and these cruise passengers will end with about 10 deaths for 1000 cleared infections, or about 1%. Then the logical question will be why the huge differential ( a multiple of 3 or 4) ?
1
There seems to be a lot of victim-blaming in the comments. "I don't cruise because of this very reason. Cruises are gross. Why would anyone ever cruise?" First of all, don't yuk someone else's yum. Obviously you must do activities that others would prefer not to do. And secondly, have some compassion for these people. They thought they were going on a vacation and ended up in a nightmare.
The point of this story is the incredibly ill-prepared and ill-conceived handling of the situation by the cruise line and the governments. It almost reads like a case study in what not to do when there is a viral outbreak in a confined environment.
8
Considering their horrific ecological impact, human exploitation and damage to world heritage sites, these ships are built for a truly narcissistic clientele. I don’t see any reason not to judge a selfish person’s “yum”.
3
@RSW Sorry, but I don't recall Hollywood, Florida, being all that sterile ~ including for its historic leading role in certain "yum" and "yuk" activities . . .
1
The epidemic is the effect of ravaging globalism That allows people and goods to move indiscriminately.
The globalists will finally understand and accept the importance of borders.
5
There were many mistakes made by many people in this slowly unfolding disaster. The biggest mistake and the biggest lesson to be learned is that travel restrictions that lead into quarantines work.
But they only work if every country is on board. When the United States put a travel ban on any plane coming from China and a 14 day quarantine on anybody airlifted from China every other country that has flights to the United States should have done the same thing on the same day at the same time. That is the only way to contain an epidemic.
Nothing stopped people from China who have relatives in America from simply getting around the ban by flying to a country with no ban like Japan then flying to the United States . This whole thing could have been nipped in the bud 3 weeks ago.
Trump should have put the travel ban in place and then told every country to do the same and banned flights from countries with no travel bans .
That would have stopped the spread very quickly.
4
For days the NYT reporting on COVID-19 focused on the perceived mishandling by the Chinese government and communist party.
For the last month, hundreds of millions of people across China imposed self quarantine at home, following Chinese Public Heath Doctors advice. Residents who have had contacts with the infected, or live in the epicentre faced mandatory quarantine of 14 days (groceries and other necessities were brought to them during this time).
During this time, the Chinese New Year holiday, when it’s typically the busiest season for hospitality and many are travelling to visit their families, most economical and commercial activities in China stopped. Some companies already went bankrupt, many are predicting a steep decline in revenue. Everyone in China has been impacted deeply.
But the people, despite these challenges, focused on preventing the virus spread by staying at home, donating money and supplies, volunteering at their local communities.
35,000 medical practitioners traveled to Wuhan to help, 14,000 isolation beds were built in a matter of weeks, with 30,000 more to come.
Dozens of officials have been fired, Wuhan’s mayor was replaced by the Mayor of Shanghai.
During all this, NYT reporting focused on the initial ‘cover up’ by the local government, how people’s movements were restricted, on how difficult it is to get supplies, test kits, groceries, etc etc.
The vitriol towards the Chinese government in the comments section was palpable.
Now?
5
What a nightmare. The line about in-room calithetics and the magician on CCTV while fear and suspicion mounted is pure existentialism.
The poor crew. I shudder at the imaginary lines we create to separate ourselves from each other even in crisis.
6
Maybe now the Trump administration and its enablers will begin to believe in science.
4
This whole virus started with one patient. No one has tests that are 100% accurate, so inevitably some will escape detection and infect. the incubation period also varies so quarantine is not 100% effective.
This all started with one patient. And each day more patients are slipping through. Every single one of them capable of recreating tens of thousands of cases.
Our goal here in the USA and other countries will be to slow the virus - because it can not be stopped. I can assure you planning is taking place behind closed doors about social distancing, our economy, financial markets and other concerns.
Rest assured we've the wrong administration in power to handle this crisis. On the bright side, Trump may not get his rallies.
14
Every single decision made at every single point in this whole outbreak has been made in the worst way possible. Putting people on a plane, after learning they are infected, with people who were not infected? Couldn't find another plane anywhere? Pandemic is coming.
7
It is surprising that the ship and its operator were so ill-prepared for any type of highly contagious diseases. Given frequent norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships, I would have thought that they have implemented standard procedures to deal with an infectious disease, whether or not it's is novel. Clearly, the operator failed to minimize the spread of the virus at early crucial phases. Why didn't they implement the lockdown on their own decision? Why did they not anticipate and prepare for an outbreak? It's easy to blame the Japanese government, but that does not prevent future outbreaks.
11
I find it baffling that many Americans demand draconian containment measures yet oppose government-funded disease prevention programs and universal health care coverage. Makes no sense to me.
68
@Peabody
Many Americans don't even get the Flu shot which is a great way to minimize Flu, expensive ER visits, costly hospital stays and many deaths. We don't honor the adage, an ounce of prevention is worth more than a pound of cure.
5
@Peabody: recognize that many Americans can not afford the expense of a flu shot, regardless of how inexpensive it may seem to you. This is the state of healthcare in your country.
1
Granted, I’ve never understood the appeal of cruise ships, largely thanks to the ecological irresponsibility and damage-by-mass tourism that follow in their wake. But the risk of contagion on these hulks terrifies me, even in the case of illnesses associated with them- Legionnaires and Norwalk, predominantly. The possibility of this perfect storm of a newly discovered virus, incubating throughout an environment packed with people, no sensible quarantine practices and no chance of escape? My god, it’s basically a horror film. And people pay for this.
36
@Danielle Why, of course it's more healthy to ride the subway or other packed public transit daily to-and-from work, right? "People pay for this", too.
2
@Danielle But-unlimited buffets!
4
I hope that while in quarantine, people are given the opportunity to gain access to certain foods and herbs that help to strengthen the immune system- not to cure but to strengthen in case they eventually test positive. I am thinking elderberry syrup which has been used in Europe for a long time for example. Increasing water intake also before getting sick. Taking extra vitamin C... Simple measures along with hand washing etc.
5
@Jennifer
Sounds like fighting an angry grizzly bear with a feather, but I guess it can’t hurt. Unless they take one or more of the many herb formulae that are dangerous.
1
Two underlying issues. One is who controls the passengers of this type of ships. The owner is a US company, the flag used is that of the UK. In normal circumstances, the ship must obey British jurisdiction. This article should have looked at this dimension before unreservedly criticising the Japanese government’s early response.
Another issue is the role of WHO. The DG of WHO, who already had a very questionable track record of maximally excluding Taiwan from WHO activities and cutting off information from to Taiwan, chose to play down the risk before the ship started having the problem. This DG did not allow downside risks essentially by fully accepting China’s official line in the early stage of WHO response. The ship’s management and subsequently the Japanese government went along with this attitude.
16
@Rather not being here Once the Japanese government gave the order to quarantine the ship in their port, the cruise line had no choice other than to obey whatever that government decided came next. No cruise ship is prepared to deal with this kind of illness regardless of who owns it or where it is flagged.
People complain about what was done with the crew. Precisely what could the line do with the crew? There is only so much space on a ship, the crew was not allowed to leave, meanwhile the passengers needed care unless the Japanese government was prepared to send on board an army of people in hazmat gear to tend to the passengers, there was no one other than the crew to provide the services needed.
11
From the excellent reporting detail, I see a bunch of authorities at all levels making their best judgement calls under evolving circumstances. It appears even “the experts” don’t agree with what should have been done, and that with perfect view of hindsight! I would be like the nurse who eventually threw her hands up and decided that since she’d already been exposed, why bother with a mask and just plow ahead trying to do her best to help others.
10
@Cindy Given the reference to re-use of masks past the recommended 1 day, perhaps that nurse viewed continued use of a mask after being infected as denying a mask to someone who might still avoid infection.
1
@Cindy The mask is for two-way protection, to protect the wearer when others cough and to protect others when the wearer coughs.
2
All the issues explained here should have been managed by a plan developed by the World Health Organisation (WHO). It was their job and they should have done it - using their budget of $4.4 billion!
There's nothing particularly new from a scientific point of view here. The SARS virus was not that different in terms of the risks it posed and the quarantine measures that should have been used to handle it. There was the opportunity there for the WHO to learn what needed to be done. They had plenty of budget to build up the necessary (very large) stockpile of masks, goggles and suits. They also had the budget to have teams ready and trained to fly out to help the port and ship authorities where necessary.
The science is not the problem and the budget was not the problem. The problem must be the people within the WHO. When the dust has settled there needs to be a huge clearout of dead wood. You have to suspect that the organisation has become packed with people who've been given jobs as favours for one reason or another. The organisation needs to be renewed and restaffed top to bottom and its future accountability ensured.
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@Londoner The WHO can issue the best guidelines but the local authorities and people on the ground have to implement those guidelines.
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@Londoner The WHO is a political organization. They were against travel restrictions and quarantines because of negative social and psychological effects and the stress it can cause. Really? Many scientists and doctors take their advice with a grain of salt.
7
@Londoner
The WHO did not provide the needed leadership. It is the WORLD Health Organization. I followed their pronouncements from the beginning of COVID-19. I was underwhelmed by the bias, pandering, foot dragging, hemming and hawing and decided they need to change. I used to honor their decisions. They have fallen down, in the eyes, minds and hearts of the world. It is about Public Health and Global Health.
4
This is terrific reporting. Thanks for the insight! It sure seems like a calamity indeed.
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@Timothy Schaefer
agree with him. great reporting esp the beginning.
2
We've been told about how many people have been infected by the new coronavirus in China & in other countries. We've been told that in China about 2% of those infected have died. What we need to know is WHO are those 2%? Are they old people? Are they young children? Are they people whose lung function is compromised? If we knew the answers to these questions, we could avoid general panic & focus on teaching those who are most vulnerable to protect themselves from infection.
23
@Jenifer Wolf : I know a lot is made of "handwashing", and it's an important step in reducing infection. But it's not going to save most of those who are most vulnerable. And there's really not much else those who are "most vulnerable" can do to protect themselves from infection.
2% is a huge number. That's a case fatality rate comparable to the Spanish Flu of a century ago.
What we really need is:
1. Aggressive containment through quarantining of those who are contagious or have a high chance of being infected.
2. Limited travel to places with an active outbreak -- both because the travelers themselves can bring the disease home and also because the long flight home is an incubator for disease.
3. Limits on air travel and cruise ships, which also foster disease transmission.
4. Universal healthcare (without these crazy deductibles) so people don't put off going to the doctor when they are sick.
I realize it all sounds fairly Draconian, but a 2% death rate is huge. In China, multiple doctors have died. It's not just "old people" or those "whose lung function is compromised". Those who are dying represent a broad swath of society -- including many adult and middle-aged professionals who are healthy enough to work at demanding jobs.
35
@Jenifer Wolf It would also be helpful to know how severe is this for those who don't actual succumb: is there is a high percentage of severe pnuemonia requiring hospitalization and ventilation? If that level of care is necessary for those patients' survival, the % who die could increase if this spreads far and fast, and hospitals capacity to care for those severe pnuemonias is exceeded by the number in need.
It doesn't help matters that
a) this is a fast moving story with experts learning the nature of the disease as it continues to spread.
b) it started in a society that reflexively censors information to present only a positive image of the authorities and did so in this case, at least initially (and perhaps still so?)
c) our own president/federal leader(s) are lacking in credibility and likely to be defensive, not inclined to follow a science-based approach in responding.
Panicky responses can at the least exacerbate this disease's effects--hoarding of masks, etc. being an example, but also racist reactions that tear at the fabric of society (as with the Japanese internment of WW2) should be viewed at part of the disease's effect. Clear, credible communication of useful information to guide people's response--and emphasis on hygiene protocols in the absence of any solid info--could do a lot to blunt the disease's impact.
4
@Rose thank you for your very clear explanation
Problem is simple. I am a retired HVA/C engineer. the Heating and Cooling system spreads the virus. Add to that the lack of out side fresh air and what is to be expected.
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@larry
The problem is not so simple. Some HVAC systems can use 100% outside air. Even when air is recirculated in a HVAC system it is supposed to be filtered. When you have the proper filters even viruses are removed.
8
@ron So the correct position is that qualified HVAC engineers should have been monitoring, maintaining and reporting on the system. There should be full transparency of the results they found... And immediate evacuation off the ship if the HVAC was fundamentally not up to the job.
5
It is highly unlikely that the ships HVAC system would have the type of HEPA filters found in a bio safety cabinet. There maybe filters but the virus would likely pass through.
13
Is it OK to be a little sceptical about epidemiology? In the U.K. we've had panics about CJD, SARS and 'bird flu', without worst case scenarios developing.
4
@Terry McCombs Well the problem is the people making the early decisions were not trained in infectious disease control. But the health officials who didn't protect themselves - shame on them.
Epidemiology is studying the patterns of the disease and that can only be as effective as people and governments are truthful.
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@Terry McCombs Hope for the best but plan for the worst. Hope for the best and plan for the best? Not so good.
@Terry McCombs
“Worst case” being what? And do you really think that the outbreaks you cite would not have been far worse without the containment measures that were taken? It sure sounds like it.
The coronavirus appears to be more deadly than the flu virus but I haven't seen anything that compares it with past flu epidemics like the 1918 one, which is estimated to have killed 675,000 people in the US. The mortality rate was far higher than for the regular flu virus.
Or even with our annual flu epidemic. Thousands died from the flu last year in the US last year and hundreds of thousands were hospitalized. Even an outbreak of regular flu on a cruise ship would infect many of the passengers and crew and, as the article says, the passengers tend to be older and some would probably die.
There's a lot we don't know about the coronavirus right now, and it's best to err on the side of safety, but it would be nice to see a comparison based on what we do know.
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@PJ : I think the problem is the conflation of two different numbers.
The case mortality rate (that is, the percentage of infected people who end up dying) is more than 2% for COVID-19. That's comparable to the Spanish Flu, and much higher than the 0.1% for a typical influenza season.
The R-naught (how many people an infected person infects) seems to be at least 2--3 people for COVID-19, which is again higher than for a typical influenza season and more comparable to the Spanish Flu.
The only difference (so far) is the total number of people who have been infected. The Spanish Flu lasted at least two years as it spread around the globe. Some communities experienced multiple peaks of infections.
COVID-19 is new -- it's been around just a couple of months. If it's not contained -- or if a vaccine isn't found -- the number of INFECTED people around the world will skyrocket. And given the death rate, the body count will add up to meet or exceed what the world saw with the Spanish Flu -- that is, unless an anti-viral cocktail can be found to cure those who are severely impacted by the disease.
13
My master’s degree dealt with social history and viruses, which led me to read a lot about contagion. It also made me painfully aware of how poorly trained to reduce contagion medical staff is. I once had to call an ambulance for a case of suspected meningitis in my daughter. This happened in Switzerland, where the staff is usually from a variety of countries. First, the person who assessed my daughter did not wear proper protection - there were clear neurological signs and I had been very clear on the phone. Then, the ambulance was not disinfected (I asked). Finally, when I told the nurse she was not wearing gloves, and had spilled some blood on her hands while putting in the I.V., she shrugged, told me it happened all the time and I had to explain to her I didn’t mean to tell her how to do her job but it was a suspected meningitis. Normally, due to the seriousness of meningitis - and it was indeed an inflammation of the meninges, due thankfully to a rotavirus so limited - there is a very strict protocol. When your young child does not recognize you and you still are the only one in the room who thinks about safety procedures, it’s very worrying. And when you think it happened in Switzerland, a very advanced and well-organized country, mere miles away from the headquarters of the World Health Organization, you worry even more. Antibiotics and perhaps even vaccines have made people complacent. Old times dragon-like head nurses may be just what the doctor needs.
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@Marie
The realistic risk with meningitis is meningococcal meningitis, and mostly for providers who are directly exposed to droplets, such as when they intubate (put a breathing tube into a patient's aurway), which usually is done with protection anyway. Additionally, if it turns out to be this type of meningitis, there are prophylactic meds one can take (I did it), if one thinks there was a risk of such an exposure.
Once we know the meningitis is viral (based on the results of the spinal tap), we do not typically isolate the patient any more.
I hate to scare you, but if you are admitted to a hospital bed where the patient before you had a resistant bug, you are risking getting it even if the cleaning was done correctly. Rooms, beds, floors and ambulances typically do not get disinfected between patients. Wiped, cleaned, yes, but not disinfected.
Unfortunately, there are no head nurses any more. At least not in the US. They are called "managers", they walk around in high heels, go to meetings, tell people what to do, but typically do not get their hands dirty.
7
@Marie
I am a clinician and you nailed the problems. Organizations in different countries train their staff differently. In the case of Global management of disease there should be consistent, clinical data driven education for practitioners. The WHO should set those standards.
Right now we rely on information that is technologically driven. That is fine. But what about the boots on the ground clinicians? Did Dr. Li die in vain?
5
I have a friend whose cruise to Italy docked back in Americac today. I don't plan on having dinner with her soon.
I know that people are being screened at airports, but what about cruise ship terminals? And given recent evidence that people can be contagious long before showing symptoms, we may need to rethink our quick temperature scans as the only means of keeping ourselves safe.
41
@J Anders : Indeed, we need safe, land-based quarantines for anyone coming from an area currently experiencing an outbreak -- and anyone coming from a cruise ship where someone was confirmed as infected with COVID-19. We've already seen that cruise ships are a hot bed of disease.
And actually, I'm surprised your friend went on a cruise given all that's currently going on. A cruise ship is the last place I would want to be right now.
2
The infection prevention by the Japanese government in this ship may not be fully sufficient, although many medical professionals have worked for the prevention.
I understand that infection prevention is a part of national security.
Japan should quickly build stronger organizations from this precious experience.
13
@WhiteSeaShore Sadly, Trump has eviscerated America's protective agencies and placed unskilled and unprepared lackeys in charge of many.
Trump himself has no concerns beyond himself and no public health skills whatsoever.
The US is far less able to cope with a pandemic than Japan.
That said, I'm not going to worry myself sick about the Corona flu virus unless it gets a heck of a lot worse. The usual flu is still a far more serious danger (I've had my shot as usual, and it appears to be quite effective this year).
2
There's been a lot of criticism of the Chinese response, but the Chinese were dealing with an unknown virus, of unknown lethality and infection rates, at the height of the busiest time and the largest migration of the year. Now that all those elements have been elucidated and publicly shared-by the Chinese, and the necessary measures clarified, notice still how governments and institutions stumble over how to respond, and how much risk they have exposed people to. In retrospect, all this makes the Chinese look pretty coordinated, rapid, effective, and responsible.
106
@ACH
I agree. After all we have seen so far, the WHO and CDC are no faster than China was in its first response. On the contrary.
13
@ACH
The Chinese could have shared information a lot earlier, even if they weren’t sure what they had on hand. They could have better freedom of media, so the international community can act appropriately even if there are unknowns. I am really very far from forgiving the Chinese govt their faults. At all.
38
@ACH
You have got to be kidding.
They ignored, even punished, their own scientists and doctors for bringing the first cases of this virus to the attention of the public.
They also did not shut down wet markets after many experts have been pleading with them for years to do so as said experts knew another possibly terrifying virus could be created.
The Chinese government unleashed this virus upon the world.
11
It probably won't be the end of cruises; people have short memories. Cruises are cheap and allow people of modest means, trips that they couldn't afford if they had to pay for them a la carte. Additionally, cruise lines are serial polluters and exploit foreign labor. Having been on a couple of cruises myself (last one 20 years ago), I'm only surprised that there hasn't been more epidemics, stuffing up to 4000 people and maybe 2000 crew on a floating isolated hotel. The buffet style of serving people is just something I never understood. It only takes one careless infected person to wreak havoc on a ship, not very good odds for coming home healthy.
65
@biglatka Agree that the environmental impact of cruising and exploitation of foreign labor are significant and profound concerns. From a public health standpoint, buffets are high risk.
But, compared to other modes of travel, cruises are most certainly not cheap.
20
@Janet Epstein Yes, there are many reasons not to take cruises, but economy is ONE of the main reasons. If you are young, you don't mind staying in staying in hostels or seedy hotels, cooking your food or eating a cheap stands, have entertainment in clubs where you just have conversation and music and fearlessly taking local transportation but when you are older, you like staying in nicer lodgings that are clean, eating gourmet meals, having your entertainment nearby and I couldn't afford the same amenities at the same price as doing everything a la carte on land. I take cheap last minute ones, try to make up the low salaries of the employees with extra tips. I and I know many others could not afford these trips traveling other ways with the same level of service and can ignore the dreaded planes. i also shop at Walmart/Dollar store for same reasons, had I more money I could and very much WOULD make better choices.
11
The problem isn’t the cruise line or cruises, it’s a virus which originated on land which passed from animals to humans via filthy conditions and was brought to the ship by an infected human.
1
So the death rate is roughly 2%, so far, and it varies with age and sex. But it's highly contagious and therefore deadly in its potential for total deaths. So how dangerous?
What is 2% anyway.? Doesn't seem like much. Simple experiment; take your extended family and assume that everyone becomes infected with Corona virus. For me, that would be about 44 people, including infants.
Now load a hypothetical 50-chamber revolver with just one round of ammunition and then one at a time, spin the cylinder, hold the gun to each family member's head and squeeze the trigger. (44 times for me) 2% of the time the gun will go off. Even if morbidity rate was only 1%? Now you're using a 100 chamber pistol. Still sounds pretty bad to me.
Some people believe that rules don't apply to them, others won't be honest about the onset of their illness.... and then there's about lack of transparency by totalitarian nations... and about a lack of resources in poorer nations. IMO, it's a foregone conclusion that the Corona virus gets worse before it gets better.
The cruise ships are a Petri dish for more than just the virus. They are illustrating the current differences in how the nation states are willing to work with each other and in some cases, their abilities to accept science based facts in a timely manner.
With a potential vaccine a long way off, good luck to all of us...
43
Morbidity refers to disease, symptoms, decrease in quality of life. Mortality refers to death, I think you are confusing the terms.
Secondly the quarantine imposed on these cruise ships is to protect the public at large from an infectious disease, NOT to protect anyone inside the cruise ship, be they passengers or crew. Passengers and crew are in an unfortunate situation for them but the quarantine is to protect everyone else outside the ship. I think everyone needs to keep this in mind. Healthcare provider here.
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@Bill Cullen, Author
Mortality for "regular" flu in a regular flu season is 0.1%, for a total of 50K in the US, on average.
Assuming the 2% is a correct number, and it may not be, but assuming it is, we are talking about 1 million dead from this virus, if the same number of people gets infected in a season as with the "regular" flu.
So one million dead Americans each winter. If the mortality is 2%.
Please observe carefully how many people are infected and how many die outside of China. For example, there were 2 dead and 60 infected this morning in Italy. That is more than 2% mortality.
Then there is the development of severe forms of disease that leaves you alive, but very impaired. Sometimes ventilator-dependent or disabled and needing oxygen for the rest of your life. This number might be markedly higher than 2%.
So in your family of 44, if all get the disease, there might be at least one funeral, and a couple people chronically ill, unable to take care of themselves, needing expensive and permanent care for the rest of their life, draining the resources of the family to the point of bankruptcy.
Translating this to the rest of the nation, a couple million, hard to say how many, perhaps 2-5 million each winter, will become disabled, require oxygen or machines to keep them alive, and drain this nation's resources.
Or force the "healthy" ones to make some very tough decisions re drainage of these same resources.
23
@MonicaF The problem is the "quarantine" did not protect either those outside or inside the ship. It was run more like a virus farm than a quarantine. There are now thousands of potentially infected people from the cruise ship spreading around the world. Luckily some governments have taken it seriously and re-quarantined their citizens. But in countries like Japan who don't take this seriously it might easily lead to full-scale mass infection.
3
It looks the passengers and the crew were exposed to Covid-19 for a full 10 days before it reached Yokohama and even the last night after infection was announced, the ship owned by British and run by an American company, Princess Cruises, let the passengers mingle freely. How much of responsibilities and blames should be put on to those profit-driven Corporations who let this happen? Why the Japanese government being so naive and taking all the responsibilities and blame at the expense of its tax payers and risking its citizens? Japanese government did not have to agree to dock the ship and it did not have the responsibility of taking care of the outbreak situation created by Princess Cruises.
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@S
I was thinking the same. The lesson for governments from articles like this will be to refuse to allow needy cruise ships to dock at their ports in the future.
It’s not as though there isn’t already pressure from the voter base to adopt a more NIMBY attitude, without criticism from outside.
Heck, there is already a faction of the Liberal Democratic Party that petitioned to close Japan’s borders to people from ALL China, not just Hubei province (the US and Australia closed their borders to all China early on; Japan only closed to Hubei province).
If 1/3rd of your voters are above the age of 65, your primary focus needs to be keeping disease out— Japan should have turned away this cruise ship, let Princess deal with it. Princess and whoever owns/leases out the boat.
4
The chart in this article notes 1000 service personnel in close quarters. What, details please, are cruise ships doing to 1. protect these workers and 2. protect passengers while they do their hard, close at hand (and food preparation) work?
26
If the cruise ship industry will s going to survive it must make changes. There are no such things as mistakes , there are only learning lessons. This is not the first time a cruise ship has been turned into a floating incubator ,it is not even for sure that this will prove the deadliest. Cruise ships have to be redesigned ,they have proven to not only be dangerous to their passengers but to the larger world. It is reckless for these ships to continue without a way to keep the passengers safe from a contagious virus. Every cruise ship should be taken out of service just the way the Boeing 737 Max has been taken out of service. An intense top to bottom study must be undertaken to discover why cruise ships are such incubators. Anyone who travels on a cruise ship while the Corona Virus is still active is insane and is keeping the cruise ship lines from getting to the bottom of the problem.
34
@Lonnie Cruises are very detrimental to the environment, and do not enable people to discover a country. Would they be such a big loss to the world? I, for one, would prefer we saved koalas and Venice, or even children, before cruises.
3
@Lonnie
I'm a teacher. Schools are also incubators. Big office buildings are incubators. Concert venues and sports venues are incubators. Airplanes are definitely incubators. People don't always wash their hands. All those seats are not scrubbed with hot water and dried with hot air between a new group of people sitting there. Nor are the armrests. And that business of you putting your own card in the pay terminal/device everywhere you go and pushing a series of buttons with your fingers...? I once saw an airport cleaning person in the bathroom cleaning out the toilets serially with a mop and then, I do not make this up, using the same mop to swab out the sinks. ( Houston, if anyone wants to know ) When I got home I called the airline . The person that I got through to, finally, was disinterested and said that the actual airline that occupied the terminal had no control over the contractor in that city who cleans the bathrooms in that terminal. " You are not even going to pass on this information ?" I queried . " No, it is not our problem ."
I think that for a fraction of the passengers to catch a virus and for an unfortunately much larger fraction of the crew to catch it is upsetting. Some lessons have been learned internationally. But do not delude yourself that the cruise ship is the problem here. And to compare it to the 737 Max incidents in which everyone died is disproportionate.
3
My wife and I are traveling this week on Viking Cruises (to South America). By your definition we're insane. We had no idea! Thanks for your armchair diagnosis of our mental illness.
How does the author know that most of these people weren't already infected before they ever got to Yokohama. Certainly many were since they had been operating normally with an infected person on board for a number of weeks. That person got off in Hong Kong, where did he get on (typically 2 weeks before Hong Kong but could be more)? That's a lot of exposure on a cruise ship. And between this person getting on the ship and Yokohama, many people could have been infected, and symptomatic, but thought they just had a sore throat or cold or what not so they just kept doing what you do on a cruise ship and no quarantine is going to make all these infected people better. We don't really know how many would have been infected even if the quarantine had been perfect, so how can we say that the virus ran rampant after it got to Yokohama. Certainly it might have, and the fact that people on-shore got the virus indicates that procedures were far from perfect, but when you say "rampant", I think you should have some actual facts.
13
@roseberry
Six hundred and thirty four infections sounds pretty rampant to me.
@roseberry
And the cruise ship's protestation that the virus is not propagated via the ventilation systems is pure poppycock. Any legitimate public health officer knows this.
Reading this, I can imagine I am identifying Japanese government characteristics because I have lived here. It takes real courage to act fast, act decisively, Mr. Ghosn would probably have done so, but it is so very difficult for the "team thinking" and "vertical level considerations" of elderly experienced leadership to take these bold moves.....what if they make a mistake?" The fear of mistakes and losing that pension after life-long association with that group is so powerful! I doubt most Americans can imagine it. Government employment tends to both concentrate and support these kinds of fears.., The pensions are so high and the perks are so helpful to keeping up the superior lifestyle they and their parents dedicated themselves to achieving. One such public embarrassment exposed by the press would end it. The stress is too great. An egoist can accept the attention, but it is so difficult for the elite university grad. to step into the spotlight because he (more likely) has much more to lose. So this cautious step by step implementation, is so familiar to me.
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@KomaGawa
Maybe for Ghosn’s paygrade, they’d have the courage to act.
As it were, for $40-60K in high COL city, govt housing with mandatory garden weeding on weekends— what young promising bureaucrat is going to have spirit left to step up to the challenge?
@KomaGawa Interesting perspective, thanks.
2
Hopefully this will be the beginning of the end for the entire cruise industry. I worked for seven years as a crew member for Carnival and NCL; these companies are irredeemable purveyors of misery, exploitation, and pollution.
158
@Kim
It probably won't be the end of cruises; people have short memories. Cruises are cheap and allow people of modest means, trips that they couldn't afford if they had to pay for them a la carte. But I agree with you as to cruise lines being serial polluters and do exploit foreign labor. Having been on a couple of cruises myself (last one 20 years ago), I'm only surprised that there hasn't been more epidemics, stuffing up to 4000 people and maybe 2000 crew on a floating isolated hotel. The buffet style of serving people is just something I never understood. It only takes one careless infected person to wreak havoc on a ship, not very good odds for coming home healthy.
15
Not gonna happen! People have very short memories. I would even say that many of the passengers on the Diamond Princess, who have been promised full refunds and a voucher for a free cruise will once again take a cruise with that voucher. Passengers on cruises with various other problems (Norovirus, engine breakdowns ) have returned. And most travelers of any mode care little about their role in destroying our planet.
9
@biglatka So don't travel on megaships, only travel on ships with European crews, and don't go to the buffet or lido. Problem solved.
1
The CDC once again giving false and misleading information (and they're the 'experts', remember?).
Who remembers the anthrax attacks when they announced that the anthrax was 'from natural sources' and not a terrorist attack at all?
If the CDC announces something, believe the opposite as their agenda is obviously not to tell the truth but to allay panic.
12
@P.T.
The CDC is doing a terrific job in this situation. For example, they strongly argued against allowing the 14 infected Americans from the ship to get on the same plane home as those who tested negative.
The quickest way to get yourself in a dire situation is to "believe the opposite" of what experts who have spent decades in the field are telling you. (see: climate change)
42
It’s not the CDC it’s the Americans! Do you know that 1400 Americans have died from the flu since October 2019 (and the typical flu season runs until April 1)? 62 of those were children! And yet Americans refuse to get a flu shot and go on to infect their co-workers, members of their congregation, anyone in their community. But “ It’s a free country!” Nobody has to care about anyone else .
Through pure, dumb luck this virus appears to be a relatively low mortality rate one (condolences to the families of all of those for whom the worst happened).
Given the mistakes, what we've learned is dire. As I write, I'm seeing a stream of images of only a few of the errors and the ones we know; human nature being human nature there are probably dozens of much more egregious ones. But here are a few to ponder:
* The American college student who skipped being checked and went straight to a fast food restaurant in one of the busiest airports in the world
* A woman told she had to be quarantined who decided her move across the country took precedence
*The defective test kits
* The people, inexplicably tested, but released *before* the results came in (?!!), results that showed dozens were infected
*Moving the infected from ships to busy ports, to even busier cities.
Imagine each of those incidents as the classic red-dot contagion-contact maps, the ones where the one you touch touches ten, who touch ten,who touch ten, and so on. The young man alone could have set off a chain reaction that would have infected hundreds if he had been sick. Having skipped being tested, it was just dumb luck that he wasn't.
When the big one hits, one akin to the 1918 flu, we've just demonstrated that we're in trouble. Turns out you cannot take the human out of being human. The Darwinian needs to flee or preserve the self will, ironically, be what dooms.
We need to learn from this. Now.
70
@AhBrightWings There's also the human nature of people like the Cambodian leader welcoming passengers from a cruise ship to enter his country, and discourage use of face masks. That was shocking.
3
@AhBrightWings
The virus mutates. There are different strains w/ varying levels of virulence and multiple vectors of transmission.
It doesn't take much imagination to understand.
2
@AhBrightWings
Hate to tell you this, but this may be as big as 1918...
3
Those most deserving of sympathy and praise, the crew, are hardly mentioned in the media and this article does little better.
171
@T
Agree completely. Talk about quiet heroism. Full credit to each and every one of them.
53
@T Thank you, and I agree that the crew deserves much sympathy. I hope you see that there is a substantial section about the crew and the conditions in which they lived and work on the ship in the story.
42
@Motoko Rich I hope they sue their employer. Employees are entitled to working in a safe environment. A hero is someone who chooses his fate, we don’t want workers to be heroes, we want them to have rights. At least I do, but I would not go on a cruise either, never been big on exploiting others.
2
The World Health Organization has very clear guidelines on how to contain a virus. I am really surprised at the Japanese response. More akin to an ostrich with its head in the sand.
A lot of the protocols we are seeing in the United States are based on the Ebola protocols established by the CDC and local health departments during that outbreak. They are working.
The problem with cruise ships is where they are registered. If it is registered in a third world country with lax safety standards you get an inexpensive cruise and the disaster described here.
24
@Angela
There is a big difference between the Ebola virus and the coronavirus.
Ebola is transferred by contact with body fluids. It is not airborne.
The coronavirus is airborne. One does not need to touch the person to get it. One only needs to be in the area to get it.
10
@Angela The WHO is opposed to travel restrictions and quarantines. They are too political and PC to be taken seriously. Their "clear guidelines" just aren't. Most scientists and medical personnel in the field take their advice with a grain of salt. Just saying.
Also, the Ebola virus is a completely different animal than COVID-19 as the previous commenter noted.
3
@esp True, but the mortality rate with Ebola absolutely dwarfs what we’re seeing with corona virus. And talk about heroes — the caregivers in Africa during the height of the Ebola outbreak. Unimaginably difficult work in every sense.
1
A textbook case in how not to handle a disease outbreak. The Japanese are place are usually quite thorough and meticulous, but the ball was really dropped on this one.
The most obvious failing here is that it should have been obvious that even if the air systems were fine, once crew started to be infected and needed to continue preparing food for passengers, as well as handling items such as towels, widespread infection was all but guaranteed.
25
@JHM
Meals should have been prepared off the ship, MREs if necessary, delivered unopened to each room by people with proper personal protective equipment.
Less luxury, more safety.
35
@ Sundiegojc,
Clorox bleach is the standard disinfectant used in hospitals for most organisms; with this virus, who knows; maybe China has figured it out, one hopes.
7
@JRS
Maybe China has figured it out. Too late; already in many countries.
There is simply more and more evidence of a decline in the competency, experience and the ability to appreciate facts in growing segments of our societies. The natural and anthropomorphic consequences of human existence on this extremely rare planet are not being recognized because they do not have a grip on or appreciation of facts and facts matter, especially when crises a pandemic unfold.
48
As a sea captain of 26 years experience, I can't even imagine what to do in a situation like this. But I imagine the decisions were quickly taken out of his/her hands, and that he/she was thereby greatly relieved.
10
Dr. Iwata, the disease specialist whose video was cited here, made some good points: Japan has no CDC and so bureaucrats rather than infectious disease specialists were making decisions; that because of this the standard international protocols - e.g., division into virus free and potentially contaminated zones - were not being followed; and that basic information on the infection rates, especially secondary transmissions, had not been made public by the Japanese government (this later was). Crew members were especially at risk, but also health bureaucrats, disaster management personnel, and obviously passengers. Iwata, who may have been exposed because these lax procedures when he got on board is in self-imposed isolation, but he deserves to be internationally recognized for providing an overdue wake-up call to Japanese officialdom.
91
@MEC Query whether, if the US had been ground zero for this epidemic, the CDC would have been stifled by our current administration.
1
@MEC
Well, the United States DOES have a CDC. They were NOT listened to. They did NOT want those 14 infected people to travel by air back to the United States.
One can have all the CDCs possible and if they are not listened to, there are actually NO CDCS.
4
@MEC
Dr. Li, and Dr. Iwata and many more clinicians need to be listened to. They put social media to the best use.
1
Avoid taking decisions, hold endless unproductive meetings that masquerade as action, and above all avoid blame. Take a wait-and-see attitude, then shrug and say ”しかたがない” （It couldn't be helped). It's standard Japanese protocol.
41
@expat That's not just "standard Japanese protocol". It's standard operating protocol for all corporations. Geez, look what's happened at Boeing. And Facebook. And Amazon. And DAPL Enbridge. And Trans-Canada Pipeline. And all mining companies, all warmaking companies, all opiate manufacturers. Etc.
2
@expat That's not just "standard Japanese protocol". It's standard operating protocol for all corporations. Geez, look what's happened at Boeing. And Facebook. And Amazon. And DAPL Enbridge. And Trans-Canada Pipeline. And all mining companies, all warmaking companies, all opiate manufacturers. Etc.
1
@expat That's not just "standard Japanese protocol". It's standard operating protocol for all corporations. Geez, look what's happened at Boeing. And Facebook. And Amazon. And DAPL Enbridge. And Trans-Canada Pipeline. And all mining companies, all warmaking companies, all opiate manufacturers. Etc.
1
Increasingly it seems like the people in charge of our governments have absolutely no idea what they are doing. From Kushner in charge of the mideast crisis to billions spent on a useless wall to this current handling of the coronavirus... ineptitude has become the norm.
188
@figure8
Actually, it is beyond shocking that Kushner is not in charge of the response to this virus.
That tells me that no one in the WH sees this as a major problem. Because if they thought it was, Kushner would be on it already!
5
@figure8 The remarkable thing is that anything is functioning properly.
3
Duplicitous and deceptive statement form Princess Cruises...
""A Princess spokeswoman said that the crew had carried out “routine environmental cleaning and sanitizing” using disinfectant that is “known to quickly kill corona viruses in 30 seconds.”""
There is currently NO known commercial disinfectant that kill this specific 2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2); there are only disinfectants that have been effective against similar viruses
To quote the Lysol website and multiple others. "Specific Lysol products have demonstrated effectiveness against viruses SIMILAR to 2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) on hard, non-porous surfaces."
That is nothing like the Princess spokeswoman's stement.
39
When will cruises get cancelled?
31
@Bora
When passengers are smart enough to demand it.
12
Flash bulletin: All cruise ships are “floating Petri dishes”
52
@Michael Gamble we were notified via email on Thu Feb 13 by Celebrity Cruise that our cruise with them scheduled Apr 21-May 2 was cancelled. In this same email (then, followed up by a phone call to be sure we were well aware) they stated that cruises from Feb 23 beyond were cancelled. Sure we're dissappointed yet we have received plenty of communications. Nothing was kept secret.
7
@Michael Gamble
Along with flying Pertri dishes.
14
@dandz
Um, the only thing they told you was that your cruise was cancelled. That’s not exactly the kind of disclosure that people affected by the virus are talking about. And it hardly means that “nothing” was kept secret.
This is not the flu. So far as we know, Children have a lower Infection rate with this virus than they do with the Flu strains. If you smoke you have a worse time of it, as per numbers out of China. There are several Non governmental persons tracking this, and there is good information out there. Sadly the WHO has some Political issues going on within it's ranks, The Money Players don't want a Panic on the markets, so some of the affects to the future of how the Economy will be hit is being downplayed. With China on almost nation wide lock down, They aren't making things as fast as they would even after the Chinese NewYear. You won't see the affects on the world stage for a while, but they will be there.
A Ship with Thousands of people on it, is just a great thing for diseases if they had voices you'd hear them cheering.
Welcome to a global future, we can get past this, just in time for the next disaster movie season. At least they weren't on a space ship.
15
@Charles E Owens Jr
Children get milder symptoms but can pass the virus on to others.
With Bumbler in Chief Trump expect an uncontrolled outbreak Stateside very soon..
Remember Trump and the Republicans don’t believe in Science..
79
@paully
Trump's critics lay in wait for the "big one". It's almost as though they want it to happen.
1
@paully hmmm, maybe, but trump is a self-admitted germaphobe though.
1
It is clear that Princess Cruises did all within their power to make a horrific situation as tolerable as they were allowed to. Any crisis provokes a lot of information seeking, anxiety and false starts. In this case, even the experts were conflicted. Throw in cultural differences, the small confines of a ship, myriad governmental offices and authorities, and you have chaos.
What a shame not to mention the intrepid British couple David and Sally Abel who posted videos daily on FB and YouTube about what was going on, providing a source of “news” in a relative information vacuum. According to their son, they are now both seriously ill with the virus AND pneumonia and in a small Japanese hospital. I hope they recover and are rescued by their family soon.
Many may be off cruising because of this. I am not one of them. With 41 cruises under my sea-legs, I know the infectious risks. And will just continue to be an obsessive hand washer!
17
@Margot H Knight Here, here. Agreed.
2
@Margot H Knight
I think it would be slightly perverse to continue tempting fate by going back to the same places and doing the same sort of thing. ~ Stephen Farrell
Given the Japanese response to the ship disaster, will anyone can be confident about staging summer Olympics there this year?
31
@ST
I was wondering the same thing.
You are the first person who has even mentioned the summer Olympics.
We should be hearing more about it not now, but three weeks ago.
1
Trump plans to combat the virus with insults, ridicule and giving it a juvenile nickname. The winning continues. Let me be perhaps the first to suggest that this virus might be a gift from above, or Mother Nature, depending. Trump and his crew, after continuously de-funding and ignoring all science, are guaranteed to mishandle the outbreak. Use this public health crisis to drive him from office, put science and honest, competent people back on top and course-correct this country.
72
@Michael C head of Health and Human Services, Azar, is an attorney and former pharmaceutical lobbyist!
2
At the end of the day, we as human being could not escape the epidemic of respiratory disease in this Global world. With the pride of human beings, we used to think we can conquer all the diseases but see what it is now for this coronavirus. We should keep humble to the natural world and God, who made all those things. As prevention of spreading this disease, there is no better way than quarantine. I understand the pain for the people on this ship since I dislike the small inner room insides this mega-ship, especially they cannot leave this room. I don’t know what could be done better for next time and I sincerely hope there is no next time.
5
One item I've never seen written about in these stories is exactly who is paying for all this - the quarantine time on the ship (people have to eat), hospital stays in Japan, chartered flights back to the US, quarantine on military bases in US (again, people have to eat.) Who is paying for all this?
17
@KDR Much cheaper than a pandemic
11
@KDR
Does it matter? Some better questions:
Do they have enough money?
When will the money run out?
What is the economic impact?
The prediction is a 1.1 trillion dollar global GDP loss out of an 80 trillion global GDP. To put it selfishly we are about 1/4 of that so we will likely lose $250 billion from our GDP. That is a decade of funding for the NIH or six months for the DOD. I hope resources from everywhere are being used but Congress should appropriate more because this is a national security risk.
17
@KDR
Hardly the most pressing question, Ebenezer.
6
The chance to stop it, has long since been lost.
It’s going everywhere now.
23
Not good to have a roommate during an out of control epidemic or to be squeezed into tight quarters where the virus lurks? Note the pictures of the hospitals and other spaces for the sick in China. Open air, few walls, countless roommates. What does that say about any one person's survival chances there? And no assurance any medicine is really being given.
15
Looks like we're about to see exactly why using up the Fed's economy juicing capacity to keep the stock market pumped up for Trump's reelection was a terrible idea...
27
@J Anders
In a perverse sort of way this could effect the Presidential election. With the looming threat of getting sick, people begin questioning their healthcare. Additionally, it will probably shave off points from the GDP of many countries, including the U.S. Not very good karma for an incumbent President who has been riding on a good economy, while seeking to cut healthcare.
2
We have been taught to believe that humans can dominate nature, but in the end nature always wins.
22
The cruise ship isn't an epidemiological disaster. The Diamond Princess is a very valuable case study. We know who was on board. We know what happened on board. We can continue the track the results of everyone on board. The entire ship is one giant science experiment. Bad for the passengers but extremely valuable for our knowledge about the disease. You can't say the same thing about anywhere else in the world. We have no idea what's happening with other outbreaks.
96
@Andy
Yes, and now we're all part of the experiment.
26
On one hand, it is understandable that the Japanese wanted to do something with that ghost luxurious ship. But to let guests out, and to not know what to do with the hapless crew (whose immense suffering is only a footnote in lengthy articles), that was neither smart nor human nor responsible. Now some of those freed folks spread the covid. Such a blunder for the normally impeccable Japanese. It’s getting chippy , more and more.
49
@ss Japan has so many small uninhabited islands - perfect to set up a temporary quarantine station. could've have asked MSF or similar for advice. Governments these days tend to be too arrogant and focused on politics and not willing to let others lend their expertise (unless to give friends/donors lucrative contracts of course}
1
Can aggrieved parties to this Wuhan corona virus sue the PRC in American courts?
5
@Charlie Noserf
How would any such judgement be enforced on PRC?
2
File lawsuits outside China in reputable courts known for integrity, then seize PRC assets outside China to satisfy judgements.
3
@Charlie Noserfs
You don't think Western interests in China wouldn't be seized in retaliation? The US has vast investment in PRC.
Nobody sensible wants to ramp up economic tensions with China.
1
1. Suggestive of how we are prepping for climate change. Yikes.
2. This is why you really want to get along well with your partner -- you may be quarantined (or worse)!
19
Was it Benjamin Franklin who said, "The difference between being on a ship and being in jail, is that on a ship you can drown"?
48
@Karl Gauss
Great quote! I had to look it up. Apparently it was Samuel Johnson. https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/85050-being-in-a-ship-is-like-being-in-jail-with
Exact quote: "Being in a ship is like being in jail, with the chance of being drowned."
20
@Karl Gauss
In Jail you can get Water boarded.
9
"No road maps?" Is there not an MPH anywhere in Japan? Putting a bunch of people together in one place is not a quarantine. Not in Japan and not at airbases in the US.
13
@Frank It has just been announced in the news here that the Japanese government recommended that Americans be repatriated early on, but the CDC decided that the risk of spreading infection would be higher if they were taken off the ship, so it asked Japan to make them stay on the ship.
1
This is a wake up call form China on many fronts. Take heed. Think about it this way; China is practically the only country with the ability to control it's entire populous... since people are raised without such freedoms as the west. Should something worse spread around the world; China would fare far better. The USA would fare very poorly irregardless of what they might say to the public; they're lying if they say they are prepared. Take a gander at the specialist hospitals that took in these sick patients. Now, count the bed availability. Treating a dozen people isn't the same thing as treating tens of thousands of people. Most doctors in the USA are just plain ignorant and couldn't diagnose a disease if it bite them on their nose. So take this for what it's worth.
30
Agree. Hospitals are not equipped for a droplet-borne infection. I know most of the big hospitals in Sydney and most have , say, three rooms with airlocks (where they treat patients with TB etc). Of course, they're full all the time!
11
Maybe I missed it, but I don't think the NY Times covered this issue as thoroughly as some other news outlets last year and the year before:
CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak (February 1, 2018)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdc-to-cut-by-80-percent-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/
80
That's because Trump continues to cut their budgets along with other health and science agencies
38
@J Anders
The CDC budget cuts were primarily to aid to other countries. Ten percent of the cuts were to local efforts.
1
"During the Fukushima nuclear crisis in 2011, bureaucratic inertia and reluctance to acknowledge the scale of the problem impeded the emergency response to the three reactor meltdowns... Kiyoshi Kurokawa, chairman of the Diet investigation into the Fukushima disaster, blamed “the collective mindset of Japanese bureaucracy … which led bureaucrats to put organizational interests ahead of their paramount duty to protect public safety.”"
Hmm, now why does that sound familiar????
Who is leading U.S. Intelligence this week?
38
Geez - sounds like a group of high school students could have done a better job organizing this quarantine! I was an English and History major in college and even I know NOT to do half of what the authorities did. People should be fired for this. And how are there NO coordinated plans between countries, the WHO and airlines/trains/ferries/ships/cruises for what to do in this situation?
32
@Renee Why "no coordinated plans"? Because public organizations and agencies that do the work of studying and treating communicable illness have been de-funded by the governments we are forced to pay taxes to. US, UK, Brazil, Australia come immediately to mind.
35
It does not seem like a cruise ship looks anyone like a Petri dish. While several sleeping, dinning, dancing, dining spaces are closed spaces. The deck and balconies are open spaces. Dr. Julius Richard Petri invented the Petri dish to grow bacteria and later fungi on nutrient agar or Sabouraud's agar, respectively. Several different agars with a whole repertoire of nutrients are used. Having researched viruses for half my life, I don't remember ever growing viruses in a petri dish by supplying nutrients.
Viruses are obligate intracellular parasites. In simple English, viruses cannot multiply in a Petri dish with nutrients. Human and mamalian Viruses like HIV, Corona viruses, Influenza viruses only multiply inside an infected person or eucarytoc cells in culture if at all. Viruses are nano meter sized and can only be visualized by electron microscope. Viruses cannt be treated with antibiotics and require specific antivirals.
Beyond China, not too many other countries were prepared to impose quarantine and stop persons from China entering their borders or flying in or cruising into their countries. It is unfortunate that Japan let passengers from Coronavirius ravaged China to enter a large cruise ship. It is no use crying over delay and other missteps. Monday morning quarter backing is going to do diddly squat. Countries need to stop flights, cruise ships from China, Japan, Iran and S. Korea from entering the US, Europe, South and central Asia, South America and Africa
15
@Girish Kotwal
The quote, "We're in a Petri dish" was an analogy. Without question, the speaker, Mr. Montgomery, hasn't the knowledge you do about how viruses replicate, nor does it matter.
The idea is that they were all squeezed into a confined space, feeding an environment to further foster the transmission of the disease.
Really.
34
@Girish Kotwal, from wikipedia,
The Petri dish is one of a small number of laboratory equipment items whose name entered popular culture.
It is often used metaphorically, e. g. for a contained community that is being studied as if they were microorganisms in a biology experiment, or an environment where original ideas and enterprises may flourish.
The usage here was metaphorical.
29
@Girish Kotwal
It was a figure of speech, not be taken literally. Like calling pre-school children petri dishes.
The point is that the disease spread all over the ship.
15
Whoever decided to allow the 14 infected American back on the same plane with hundreds of other Americans, separated only by plastic sheeting, will be responsible if the virus spreads here in the US.
That is a long flight, I feel certain many more people were infected during it.
78
This was totally predictable. Ships are a closed environment. Unless the ship had been designed to be an isolation ward with high level filters for each compartment, everyone is breathing the same air. Ask any member of the Navy what the first two weeks of any deployment. Everyone is sick.
41
@Jack Flynn Yep. Then everybody get better and all is quiet medically until the first port stop. Then repeat. (USS St. Louis LKA-116, '75-'77 medical officer.)
14
Ineptitude by a bureaucracy that is supposed to be first class.
9
An incubator on water. Cruise ships are notorious petri dishes. Very unsettling news about the lack of any medical expertise in dealing with this outbreak. A solemn reminder of health hazards on such vessels.
18
The repeated episodes of norovirus on cruise ships were enough for me to long ago write off a cruise as anything near pleasurable. What would convince a rational human being to confine themselves to a floating petri dish for a week or more ??
40
The definitive account of life aboard a luxury cruise ship is David Foster Wallace's essay "A Supposedly Fun Thing I'll Never Do Again."
39
The sound you hear is the plaintiff bar sharpening their boning knives. China will be sued for hundreds of billions of US$. The Party is creating a false narrative. We already know that China was negligent in delays that could have saved lives and livelihoods worldwide. It has not learned from its past epidemics. China’s secrecy killed people. We get glimpses of what might be true.
Last week, Wu Yuanbin, director at the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, wrote in an official press release, that “China should enhance its management of viruses and bio agents at all labs and research institutes. The competent authorities also emphasized the need to strengthen the management of laboratories, especially viruses, to ensure biosecurity.”
In April 2004 the SARS virus escaped a BSL3 lab in Beijing at least three times. That led to doubts about the safety of Chinese virus labs. China had been correctly accused of secrecy and mendacity in the 2002 SARS outbreak, leading to more deaths. The new 2004 outbreak of SARS in Beijing was the fault of a series of flaws at the CDC's National Institute of Virology. World scientists wanted details about these new 2004 SARS infections and how the virus escaped the lab. More secrecy.
2020 - Why hasn’t China allowed independent investigators to access the Wuhan Institute of Virology BSL4 labs? One guess. It has been destroying evidence. Sanitizing to escape accountability at home and abroad.
11
@Charlie Chan
I can't imagine why you think China will accept the jurisdiction of an American court in this matter. It's not as if the US ever recognises the rulings of any foreign court.
How would you enforce any US judgement? Seize Chinese assets in the US? I think you'll find that US companies have far greater investments in PRC.
I mean, NK is a minnow compared with China. Yet, the Warmbier judgement remains ignored by North Korea - and will continue to be.
12
We’ll see. As you point out, there are issues. But there has to be a lawful way to hold the PRC accountable for all the suffering it has caused. If a multinational publicly-traded entity is misgoverned and mismanaged by its senior leaders and board, loses are dire and avoidable but for the laxity, there is legal recourse. Many families filed lawsuits against Saudi Arabia after 9/11. I am not a lawyer...
3
@Charlie Noserfs the PR C may have caused suffering but it didn't cause this COVID-19. In fact, it is doing a better job of trying to save people from getting it than other countries are doing.
Just another good reason never to go on a cruise.
32
“The lack of a coordinated response in which genuine experts are responsible for decision making is problematic,” he said, ”because what happens instead is that you have political functionaries who are placed in roles of authority beyond their competency.”
But, of course, that never happens in America....
18
Clearly there are a number of factors related to the global nature of contemporary society that requires coordinated, advance preparation for the next, inevitable outbreak. All nations, particularly the rich ones, must be prepared to share resources with other nations on an international scale for a rapid, comprehensive response. Can we not learn important lessons from this present tragedy aimed at preventing/intelligently mitigating future similar or even worse health crises?
This would include provisions for adequate quarantine facilities and the speedy dispatching of requisite medical supplies and trained medical staff to ground zero locations anywhere in the world. The piecemeal, go-it-alone, make-it-up-as-you-go-along approach is both selfish and bankrupt.
Leaving it the captain of a cruise ship to come up with an appropraite response in the instance of the Diamond Princess was foolish in the extreme and the consequences bear that out. Don't blame the captain. Blame the heads of state globally who should have known better and made the necessary preparations. Mankind has a long track record on this type of thing stretching all the way black to the Black Plague. The Spanish Flu epidemic? HIV? Ebola? Hello.
That's what good government means - coordinating necessary actions that isolated individuals are incapable of undertaking on their own.
I personally would like to hear what every presidential hopeful and/or candidate has to say on this pressing topic appropriate.
13
@Rex
This cruise could have been made into an Titanic episode, let the Ship hit an huge floating Iceberg, no a Huge floating Lettuce.
1
These huge cruise ships have always given me the heebie jeebies. Once when I was in Vancouver I stood dockside at Canada Place and watched one of these behemoths load up. It was like a clown car trick in reverse. No, thank you. I freak out at Costco when it’s crowded, so I know I would not survive on a ship of three thousand or more souls. I need space.I need quiet.
I took a small boat cruise some years ago — just 20 passengers and zero nightclubs. It was bliss.
25
I feel EXACTLY the same way. I am not a fan of “let us entertain you”. Stay away from large stores whenever possible. Like flexibility.
8
Experienced cruise ship person here with very happy memories, but since the virus news, I will NEVER go on a cruise again.
7
What is missing in all of these articles is a time line that connects Wuhan with the infections on ships and elsewhere. The Japanese couple who were quarantined after returning from Hawaii seem to have picked up the disease in Hawaii where there was no Wuhan connection. How did so many people aboard the ships make contact with the carriers who were nowhere near people from China? The reporting is as messy as the attempts to contain the infection.
10
@bellicose How do we know there were no cases in Hawaii? In order to make sure the tourist industry is not affected the authorities will never admit to having problems.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/07/hawaii-news/7-in-quarantine-in-hawaii-homes-after-returning-from-china/
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/02/04/chinese-nationals-seeking-asylum-us-arrived-hawaii-before-new-restrictions-took-effect/
3
@bellicose The infected person was from Hong Kong which is a part of China.
1
It’s a respiratory infection, for goodness sake. It’s not the bubonic plague. Stop the madness!
6
@Mary Ann
Huh? Respiratory infections can be just as lethal as bubonic plague, harder to treat, and much more transmissible. The 1918 flu pandemic infected a third of the world's population and killed 50 million people.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
20
Mary Ann,
Respiratory I.e. breathing is our most dire condition, we must have a method of breathing; if a person can not breathe, no need to worry about carbuncles and lesions on the body or any other symptoms of the plague; neither is a pleasant way to suffer.
13
@JRS Also it is reported that the more severe cases will have damaged lungs and hearts even if they recover.
2
When diseases cross borders it is an international threat and we developed the UN to deal with international threats with its organization the World Health Organization.
The mission of the UN is of course primarily to maintain international peace, prevent war. I have come to believe the UN set itself up for failure when it attempted to prevent all war and that it ought have more often embraced enforcing the rules of war.
Be that as it may, it is in fact the organizations of the UN that keep it as a most valuable institution but that it does need to take more robust actions in situations such as this because they are international in scope. The WHO ought be at the least the leading authority on how such an epidemic is to be handled.
This is to say that the UN & its WHO do not try, but that they need to be encouraged and given the tools and respect they need to help us all.
8
@Russell Scott Day Nice comment
3
My idea of a nightmare is going on one of these cruises. I have always thought of this as the worst possible way to spend a vacation, with the possible exception on Disney World. These cruise ships are not just "floating epidemiological disasters," they’re environmental disasters. They're floating cities using millions of tons of fuel and dumping millions of tons of human waste into the oceans. They routinely violate compliance with any kinds of standards and regulations for pollution of the air and water.
139
@Martha
I'll give you a nightmare scenario:
your postal worker delivers you a piece of mail. Before he does that he was bringing a certified letter three blocks away and let that person use his pen to sign the receipt. And that person was just at the airport to see off a friend who was flying to Florida. And got sneezed on by someone who just came from Italy.
1
There is enough blame to go around.
Passengers who chose to take a cruise trip in Asia during an outbreak of a new virus in China.
Cruise ship company(carnival cruise) who chose not to cancel these trips for fear of hurting their bottom lines.
Passengers who failed to take the situation seriously after learning of an infected person was onboard. They dined, danced, ate, attended group activities, share utensils etc.
Cruise directors who failed to take the situation seriously and ill prepared to manage a potential outbreak.
The ship crew had to tend to passengers while sick. They could not isolate themselves from each other and had to continue working.
Carnival Cruise failed to prepare and plan for a catastrophe on their ship.
Japanese officials overwhelmed and ill equipped to manage the situation.
State Dept and CDC caught off guard after 14 patients tested positive as they were prepare to leave Japan.
15
@Dolphin
It doesn't include to stop thinking and not taking basic healthcare of yourself unless you are under 5 years old.
After all they were all adults and obviously had the ability to hold down good jobs due to the cost of these trips. Why shouldn't the passengers be held to account at some level.
6
@ma
The State Department and CDC were not "caught off guard" after the 14 Americans tested positive. They debated the decision for hours. It was a bread-and-butter decision (whether to protect the American public at large from disease contracted abroad) for both.
They ended up rigidly following State Department protocol.
Had the infected passengers already gained the status of evacuees? Yes. Should the State Department therefore continue their evacuation? Yes.
Direct quote from Dr. William Walters, Executive Director and Managing Director for Operational Medicine for the Bureau of Medical Services:
"Then the question was simply this: Are these evacuees? And do we follow our protocol? And the answer to that was yes on both accounts. Yes, these are evacuees. We have taken – we have put them into the evacuation pipeline, we have a plan. Should we execute the plan? And the answer was yes."
https://www.state.gov/on-the-repatriation-of-u-s-citizens-from-the-princess-diamond-cruise-ship/
Even simple common sense dictated the opposite result. The American passengers and crew forced to share a tight, enclosed space and recirculated air with infected passengers should be furious. We should ALL be furious.
12
@ma,
Makes one wonder how many epidemiologists take cruise ship trips for fun; I hate breathing the recycled air on a plane, love the convenience of flight but the confinement with so many people gives me a coughing spell from sheer panic of so many people packed together.
It is remarkable how many geniuses make comments here. Every disaster is foreseeable. Sue the cruise line and health departments, then jail them. I go on a lot of cruises. Last October I cruised the China coast (Viking). Went to the ships doctor with gastric issues. I was advised there would be no charge, but now I had to stay in my cabin until cleared. If I didn't, they would discharge me at the nearest port. After a couple a days I said I felt fine (not really) and was allowed to leave. No epidemic. A cruise ship can only do so much even when the problem is known. This is/was an unknown. Modern medicine is not full proof when it comes to new diseases. Look at AIDS.
9
@cleo No, modern medicine is not full proof, but as an RN I can tell you that one thing upon which we depend to control outbreaks is the honesty of patients. Lying about your symptoms is selfish and irresponsible.
51
@Maggie
Seems like several of them without thinking about the other passengers.
7
@cleo How do you know you didn’t leave behind a boatload of people with something like norovirus?
1
Petri dish is an apt label for this ship. The implications of how irresponsibly passengers were encouraged to intermingle before the quarantine was imposed, keeping them onboard while they were quarantined, and multiple other failures to try to stop the virus from spreading has no doubt had, and will continue to have, an impact on the health of the entire world. Shame on everyone involved in this entire disaster.
11
Some of the comments on here are ridiculous. I've been on 80+ cruises and caught a cold twice. Like any crowded area, Disney? you have to be aware of keeping your hands clean. You would be shocked at the number of ppl who don't bother. The last ship I was on this Jan. had a person at the entrance to every dining venue with a Purel dispenser. Everyone got a handful. This is common on cruise ships. If a norovirus outbreak happens, the affected are confined to their rooms and special procedures are dictated as to cleaning their cabins and handling their food service. However, this was a unique episode. I think the Japanese medical personnel who took over mishandled the situation. When the number of cases rose every day, it was obvious something else had to be done. Evacuating the ship when you are dealing with 5000 passengers and crew that need to be quarantined presents quite a problem. The governments of the passengers finally evacuated their own citizens. The Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command in 2018. The CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS all had their budgets cut in the billions. That infrastructure is gone as are the personnel. So let's hope the Covid 19 can be contained in the US now.
30
80 cruises! That’s a feat. Congrats. You couldn’t pay me to go on one. I get nauseous thinking about those buffet lines.
18
@LP What you may not realize is that there are levels of cruise lines like there are 1 to 5 star hotels. Lines like Crystal, Seabourn, Regent and even Oceania and Celebrity have fine dining venues and Princess has two specialty restaurants where you pay more but have full service dining and most also have main dining rooms. You do not have to eat at buffets on cruises! It has afforded us to see much of the world. Where else could you get a taste of 4 or 5 countries in 10 days without having to repack, fly, or take a train or drive. It was a wonderful way to travel. I had not taken a cruise on a large ship with over 2000 passengers but figured I would try out a Princess since it is so close to where I live and only to the Southern Caribbean. Now this came along and the cruiselines will not allow cancellations just due to the coronavirus yet those other passengers are flying in from all over the world. I chose not to risk. Would have been leaving on Tuesday.
4
@Bet norivirus like a lot of viruses sheds for a long time before and after you have symptoms. You don’t know how many people you sickened after they got home. It’s this kind of “one this happened and nothing bad happened so it’s fine to do it” nonsense that causes epidemics.
4
Japan seems from this account to have handled the problem like a dysfunctional emerging economy.
Maybe the suspicion of outsiders that kept any foreigners from entering the country for two centuries until Commodore Perry showed up explains part of this?
5
This article is an important learning tool. It makes one wonder how any passengers and crew members on the Diamond Princess managed to come away *without* being infected with the coronavirus. So many instances of needless, repeated exposure; the well soon became the sick. The vision of hindsight is always perfect: the top down management of an infectious disease expert was critical.
16
Let’s just say, it’s confounding when a virus with unknown potential starts spreading. It appears mild, but spreads far too quickly, leaves children alone, affects men more than women. The elderly react quite severely. It’s a traveller making it’s way around the world at an alarming speed. It is the unknowns about this virus with rather vicious cousins that is scaring the medical community. What if you label it as harmless and it is unstable enough to spawn a terrible illness? I wish the medical community would connect and get common preventive practices for medical communities the world around. Maybe posters to stick in many, places with sketchy medical care. And of course place these where bureaucrats decide to mingle with possibly infected people. How about the CDC writing for the American citizens in the newspapers?
8
China’s government not only started this pandemic, it compounded its lethality by ignoring then deflecting blame to a wet market that sells (allegedly) illegal bushmeat. It does not admit that the virus leaked from one of its government labs. But then this.
Last week, Wu Yuanbin, director at the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, wrote in an official press release, that “China should enhance its management of viruses and bio agents at all labs and research institutes. The competent authorities also emphasized the need to strengthen the management of laboratories, especially viruses, to ensure biosecurity.”
In April 2004 the SARS virus escaped a BSL3 lab in Beijing at least three times. That led to doubts about the safety of Chinese virus labs. China had been correctly accused of secrecy and mendacity in the 2002 SARS outbreak, leading to more deaths. The new 2004 outbreak of SARS in Beijing was the fault of a series of flaws at the CDC's National Institute of Virology. World scientists wanted details about these new 2004 SARS infections and how the virus escaped the lab. More secrecy.
2020 - Why hasn’t China allowed independent investigators to access the Wuhan Institute of Virology BSL4 labs? Investigators could then rule out or implicate the lab as being the source. The government-run lab handled strains of the coronaviruses. One could have escaped and infected patient zero. That makes the PRC culpable.
11
How many almost-pandemics must we endure before US authorities’ (CDC etc), WHO, and foreign governments will devise a uniform containment protocol upon which all entities must act immediately?
The current approach is unconscionable, reckless, negligent. Since December, there’s absolutely no excuse for this virus spreading beyond its point of origin.
What now?
12
I cannot think of a less appropriate way to care for unaffected patients than to confine them to a boat, with shared water, toilet, food, and air systems. They should have been removed from the ship immediately, then quarantined in the USA
23
Obviously even the most developed nations are still not prepared for this. What did they do the last two months, praying for clouds of disinfectant raining over China?
I also didn't hear or read anything about cities in Germany preparing for the impact of Covid-19, like stacking up medical supplies and logistics. My brother works in a lab related to health, he told me, all the whole staff is expecting a bad hit in the next months and they know, that until now there hasn't been any kind of preparation.
I am guessing, this will be a slow and steady burner and I am expecting some kind of summer of Corona here in Europe. The idea of wearing a mask in what probably will be "the hottest and longest summer ever measured" once again isn't very seductive.
With bad luck, the virus stays for years, will come in waves or will endlessly shred it's way through our countries and the (so far) relative low death rat isn't a relief: 20% of all cases are severe or critical, which would be 16 million people in Germany. I don't see, how the health system can deal with this, especially after all the cuts of the last decades.
32
An acquaintance is in the safety gear biz, sells to businesses. All his inventory was made in China. His biggest customer is now ———. You guessed it.
6
I have been reading everything I can about the coronavirus epidemic to help me decide whether to cancel a cruise to the Baltic this summer.
In my varied searches I have found that the NYT's maps and and graphs and statistics related to the coronavirus epidemic are frequently out of date.
The most current and authoritative maps and stats I have been able to find are provided by Johns Hopkins University at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
For example, another NYT article minutes ago reported that Italy has 40-some coronavirus cases. However, the Johns Hopkins site reports 62 Italian cases, by far the most in a European country, thus identifying a recent and huge upward spike that has caused authorities to quarantine 10 or 11 small towns in northern Italy.
I hope all news channels and departments will use old-fashioned foot-work to find and convey the most accurate and up-to-date information about the coronavirus epidemic.
By the way, based on information provided by Johns Hopkins and other authoritative sources I have decided to cancel my summer cruise to the Baltic nations--perhaps next year.
36
@Mon Ray
That link is an outstanding source of information. Bravo!
Congratulations on the wise decision to skip the cruise.
1
Never taken a cruise. Never will.
44
@Bill Agree! What seemed unappetizing, now seems even more so.
8
@Bill
Never wanted to - actually!! Sounds boring to me. You can do the same things on land and alot less expensive.
5
@Bill
I am lucky. I get so easily sea sick that I cannot be in an enclosed space on a moving ship. Only on top and looking towards the horizon.
I could not tolerate a cruise even if it was handed out for free...
A Petri dish says it all
18
Who couldn't have foreseen a disaster in the making? I mean how stupid was this handled? (sarcasm, rhetorical)
10
This virus probably originated in wildlife which was caught for human consumption. So we rightly believe that everyone who eats wildlife has contributed to the emergence of this disease. Similarly as this virus is being spread worldwide through international recreational travel, everyone who travels for pleasure is directly contributing to the spread of this disease. Stay in your own home and don't get on any cruise ships or airplanes. You will not die if you don't go on a holiday this year.
16
You don't have to be a scientist nor a doctor to understand that the worst place to be healthy is in a confined environment with sick people like a hospital or a cruise ship. While a hospital is full of health professionals with tests and treatments a cruise is not.
23
“no current evidence to suggest that the virus spreads between rooms on a ship through the air-handling system.”
Someone should go back to whomever said this and ask why labs, right in their research facility handling pathogens, have dedicated, isolated HVAC systems complete with airlocks. The bubble of contagion around an infected person is measured in essentially static air, not forced air.
37
@HANK And all hospitals have at least one negative pressure room. That quote is a doozy.
7
@Maggie I worked in that kind of lab environment at Dupont during their 80's HIV investigation/research program. And here I am!
4
Medical naivete leads to blunders like these, and they will lead to human and economic tolls.
6
The craziest part of this is the way they quarantined the paying passengers but treated the crew as if they were a different species that couldn't be infected by the virus or pass it around to others. Some serious status-based magical thinking.
533
@EJ
That's a question for their PR department.
7
@EJ
The crew are a cost, not a revenue source like the passengers.
The same holds true in hospitals, btw.
5
@Ravenna , human resources and senior management ere ethics
2
With 634 infections and two deaths, this cruise ship represents the largest concentration of coronavirus cases outside China, meriting its own category in the data compiled by the World Health Organization.
9
@Odysseus The "Diamond Princess" will likely be renamed.
6
Japan is not known for its speed or rapid reaction- They prefer perfection regardless of how long it takes. that's the deal
12
My to do list this weekend:
-Costco run to store some food, basics and disinfecting goods. CDC says have 2 weeks stored for any pandemic not just now.
-Call friends from Mexico to mail N95 masks or bring me some on their trips back.
-Cancel spring break in Italy/France
- Refill kids asthma/allergy meds
Overreacting much you say? Better be safe than sorry.
57
@LP
Definitely not a good time to go to Italy. They're seeing more cases popping up.
21
@Barbara From today's (Feb. 22nd) USA Today:
"A female resident in the Lombardy region (Italy) died only hours after a 77-year-old man succumbed near Padua, in the Veneto region, the ANSA news agency reported, citing health care sources.
Italy reports a total of 62 cases, many of them representing the first infections in the country via secondary contagion, that is, not directly from a visitor to China."
16
I wonder what the ship’s Doctor was doing other than dining with the Captain and enjoying the entertainment?
6
@jack
Given that there were 3700 passengers on the ship, the good doctdor probabaly needed a meal once in a while.
16
@jack
The captain was in charge, and it sounds like he ignored many medical concerns rather than addressing them.
6
@jack also wonder how they would have handled an outbreak of Legionair’s disease or just a “simple” Norovirus? should ship’s doctors be conversant with a little public health training? After all, they are responsible for a “village” of 3,700 lives.
1
How this virus is transmitted is vital, airborne, contact or ingestion? Or all of them? How long will the virus survive outside a host? Since animals can be infected, can they transmit the virus to humans? These would be the minimum questions the ships owners should have asked. Ships have closed ventilation systems and are connected throughout the ship. Room air ventilation is interconnected. The ships personnel living in close quarters certainly raises alarms as well as the galley’s that prepare the food. Temperatures are ideal for virus’s to live in a hot humid atmosphere, both place's are that. Bringing things to the passenger rooms by a crew member or anyone would break that area of being sterile. If you wash your hands and then take something from an outside source you are contaminated from that source. People touch their face at least 50 - 100 times a day.
Was there any detective work done to try and find if infected people were from a certain area of the ship? Had specific food, goods or things given to them by the same personnel?
You show a photo of Mr. Molesky getting tested for the virus. Did the person giving the test change his protective gear for every person being tested. Yes, it might protect him, but does its surfaces carry a virus to another recipient?
It is evident the longer one stayed aboard that ship the chance of not getting the virus dropped dramatically. From your article it is apparent that a preventative protocol was not established.
13
Ships do not carry adequate medical personnel or ward space. If an employee falls ill, they are removed from the ship, if anything. Being a doctor on a cruise ship is considered a lowly position, perhaps only taken near retirement. Unless health care is taken seriously by cruise lines, these outbreaks will just continue to happen, whether norovirus or coronavirus or something else.
24
The 14-day quarantine on board the ship never made the slightest bit of sense. It's based on the assumption that everyone was exposed and started incubating the disease on Day 1.
What about the hundreds of people who, for whatever reason, managed to avoid exposure until Day 6 or 9 -- or even Day 14? Even if the quarantine measures had been far more effective than they actually were, the assumption should've been continuous, rolling exposures.
Even assuming the 14-day maximum incubation period is correct (and we've already seen cases proving that it's not), first you'd need to remove each individual from any possibility of exposure -- strict quarantine *off* the ship. Then impose an adequate quarantine.
We also need to hear from the CDC and NIH on the true incubation period.
112
@Bill
Logistically, how do you find quarantine facilities for 4000 people? How do you safely transport 4000 people to the facilities once you locate/secure them?
2
When it comes to medicine, it is best to listen to doctors rather than bureaucrats or politicians. Apparently that is a point of confusion for many people.
27
@Covert Remember the EPA head, Christine..., who told the 9/11 workers that it was perfectly safe? Yes, don't rely on political leaders or bureaucrats for medical advice.
25
Most unconscionable decisions:
-Allowing the 14 infected passengers to board the planes.
-Allowing the ~1,000 passengers to walk off the boat after exactly 14 days.
It's only a matter of luck if the US and Japanese governments get away with these decisions.
Of course, if any deaths result and the families try to sue, in the US they'll be faced with defenses of governmental immunity.
26
@Bill I think the US government did the right thing in bringing home even those who tested positive. What should they have done? Returned them to the ship? Abandon them in Japan? Requiring a new quartantine for all brought home, and doing it in the US under proper protocols, is a good plan.
7
@Bill
Are we back in the middle ages?
5
@C
They could've taken them to a hospital in Japan. Japan is a first-world, sophisticated country with excellent medical care. It's not as if they were "abandoning" them alone on the windswept slopes of Mt. Everest.
Some American passengers freely chose to skip the US evacuation, wait out the last day or two of quarantine on the ship, then remain in Japan until the next opportunity to return to the US in early March.
The point is, you don't mix people with a highly contagious disease with uninfected people in a tight, enclosed space with recirculated air for 10+ hours. Especially when the uninfected have no choice. And triply so when you don't even *tell* the uninfected people. It was nothing short of an outrage against those people -- and the rest of the US population, which has now been needlessly put at risk.
13
My wife and I have canceled a Baltic cruise for this June because:
1. Most cruise lines reserve the right to alter or curtail the schedule and itinerary without refunds; and cancel-for-any reason insurance will add about half the cost of the cruise.
2. We are both over 70 and thus at higher risk of becoming seriously ill or even dying from COVID-19 if we catch it.
3. In the best of times cruise ships are floating Petri dishes that easily spread noroviruses; note the current COVID-19 transmissions on the Diamond Princess.
4. While our cruise ports are in countries that now have fewer than 25 cases, the coronavirus could become a pandemic affecting thousands in many countries, including those on our itinerary. Our nightmare scenario is that we or other passengers contract the disease aboard or ashore. Do we want to be treated or quarantined on the ship or in Latvia or Estonia or Russia or Finland or Denmark? No way.
For us the medical/financial risks are just too great, so for 2020 we are planning to limit our travel to US destinations we can reach easily by car or short flights.
Over time we will evaluate the coronavirus situation and see how cruise lines and foreign countries are coping. There’s always next year.
My comments are not medical advice, which readers should seek from their doctors. For travel advice, talk to your travel agent, carrier and insurance agent.
34
@Mon Ray
We are making a similar decision today regarding our Baltic cruise in May for all of the reasons you mentioned. The CDC is already reporting the presence of COVID-19 in Finland, Sweden, Germany and Russia. I’m a health care professional and believe that personal safety must trump my wanderlust.
27
@Mon Ray--We just returned from an Amazon River birdwatching small boat cruise. Fortunately for us, South America is about the safest place we could go, although we did see face masks in all airports, domestic and foreign.
The rest of our travel this year is to U. S. destinations too. This is a good time to stay home.
10
Clear definition of state corporate crime where Japan/internal community and Princess Cruises were responsible for peoples safety and knowingly ignored industry standard protcols to protect people on board (and now offboard since they are disbursing). The 634 people infected from the cruise ship are victims of this system of greed, as are all the people those infected may infect. Things could have been done properly instead of creating massive infection among people in close quarters. Less restrictions allowed people to interact and spread the illness was a veiled attempt to keep the passengers more calm. Insane what they created by blatently ignoring health and safety protcols. Letting people just go after the weakest possinle 2 week quarantine in history is insane negligence boardering on criminal (if these things were codified). There should have been proper facilities created on the ground in the mean time to house these individuals. In the words of Trump: Sad.
15
@Jay
An American from Springfield, Oregon who worked on the Diamond Princes escaped quarantine in Cambodia after less than 2 days and flew home.
There's plenty of insanity to go around.
7
How could the cruise ship not have a plan in place for an onboard contagion? It's so totally foreseeable. What good does it do to quarantine the passengers if infected crew is still circulating among all of them? How could the State Department and Department of Health and Human Services not have a predetermined method for evacuating potentially infected citizens from foreign countries? Again, a totally foreseeable situation. The picture of that plastic sheet on the plane with six foot air gaps on either side is beyond ludicrous.
146
A must-read article with several alarming details. The takeaway is that BOTH Japan and USA govt-level health officials had no idea what they were doing and abandoned standard protocols. It is just a matter of time for the virus to spread to the USA: its a given. The question is whether or not USA hospitals can handle the stricken as it proliferates in our country. The USA's decisions to put 14 known virus infected Americans on that charter plane with healthy people in re-circulated air (!) is completely nuts. Not a good indication that the USA will do any better than Japanese health officials.
128
@K Henderson
The better response would have left the 14 infected people off the flight, and secured a charter or military plane to bring them back to treatment/quarantine in the US. Or perhaps a military hospital offshore with appropriate facilities.
6
I agree. I would sue if I got sick from that plane.
1
@K Henderson
Of course the US can handle the epidemic! We only have to stop people who do not have this disease from coming to the hospital, if they get sick. Which will be no problem, because no one will want to go to a hospital that has such coronavirus cases.
the only question is, are insurances going to pay for the care of coronavirus cases and their chronic care and disability when the epidemic tsunami is over?
2
All the criticism and attacks on China's response to the COVID-19 outbreak, yet now the Chinese look absolutely professional in comparison to the criminal ineptitude of the Japanese and American authorities. Two of the mightiest powers on Earth can't handle miniscule viral situations on a ship. We can only imagine the catastrophic ineptitude when the outbreak becomes a true pandemic. My heart goes out to the people of Iran. They already face severe shortages of medicine caused by US sanctions, there are simply no resources to fight this Coronavirus outbreak. Undoubtedly, the US is delighted at this catastrophe, and will do nothing to provide humanitarian assistance.
69
I agree with the remainder of your comment, but the US will not be delighted because of the human and economic toll to follow.
From an MD.
17
@AR No, the US is not delighted at the idea of catastrophe in Iran; nor do I think most Americans would wish that on any other nation. Trump and his minions might cackle in delight over this notion, but count me as a citizen living under that regime in protest, who most definitely does not delight in the suffering of other people.
59
@AR The Trump administration’s proposed 2021 budget for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) cuts $25 million from the Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response, $18 million from the Hospital Preparedness Program. The administration is also asking over $85 million in cuts to the Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases program, which is housed at the Centers for Disease Control.
43
And when will anyone please spell out best practices for those of us WITH the dreaded “underlying conditions”? I’ve scoured news on Coronavirus from three different papers since mid-January; never once have I seen mention of how asthmatics ought to approach this disease. And for those with more profound “underlying conditions” - immune suppression, chemotherapy - there is quite literally no guidance at all. Should we with underlying conditions be taking more precautions, like wearing masks and avoiding recent travelers? It seems likely, though no one in authority will say.
17
There is nothing extra you can do right now. Once Covid does start circulating in this country the advice will be the same for everyone. The risk of death is higher in those who have certain conditions, but it won’t change the advice as everyone is at grave risk of dying. Wasting precious resources like masks now is, just that, a waste. Wash you hands and avoid people who are sick
4
That room Ms Gay Courter is isolated in is luxurious on a typical cruise ship. The crew and staff (including entertainment) live in small cramped rooms, sometimes three at a time. If one has the desire, after reading this, to embark on a cruise please treat them with respect. They may just save your life.
52
Well I guess it's pretty clear now how mother nature is going to thin the herd. Even with everything we know about them, we do not have any real protection against a volatile pandemic.
11
Princess Cruises should be sued until its lights go out. It is no news that cruise ships are dangerous infection factories and ecological time bombs. What is becoming appallingly clear, though not surprising, is the reckless lack of professionalism this outfit has exhibited in dealing with this crisis. No need to repeat all the failings in the ship’s hygienic and health protocols that have been uncovered and detailed in this article. The way this emergency has been handled by the ship crew is simply beyond shame. These cruise ships should be immobilized until such time that they can demonstrate, through an independent, encompassing and strict audit, that they meet minimal hygienic, health (and ecological!) standards commensurate with today’s scientific and operational best practices.
42
@Paul Eckert Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen !!It's money first ..
7
I've been on 2 cruises in the last 40 years or so, none in the last 20 years, as the ships have gotten bigger with more passengers and crew. During those 2 cruises, I've noted the unsanitary conditions, sometimes impossible to avoid on ships with the best intentions. Every so often one hears of norovirus and legionnaires outbreaks. These are the outbreaks the public hears about. I wonder how many people get sick, but it never reaches the volume where it is made public.
It is almost unavoidable to have cross-contamination on a cruise ship, living in close quarters with 2000-4000 passengers. Although the idea of a cruise is tempting, the risk is too great for me to even consider one again. A floating petri-dish is an apt description of the communal living conditions on a ship. I bet you dollars to doughnuts there is a movie about this, probably embellished to make it more horrific. It will be a box office hit.
20
Perhaps it's time to put pressure on our Government Officials including Congress to get a clear and succinct picture as to what is happening in the US & Canada. What their plans are, how we are evaluating this virus, when we can depend upon test kits that are reliable. I watch the WHO pressers and they offer some of the best information available in addition to reliable individual scientists. They give me confidence w/o having to put on rose colored glasses, I ask that you not equate the CDC of yesterday to todays in-terms of leadership or even the CDC & WHO. It is sad we are living in a world where megalomaniacs are willing to hide numbers & info. even on state level so they can pretend markets will hold over a possible pandemic. When I say confidence I mean news and in knowing they are doing all that they can to quell this virus, it may or may not be enough. Keep healthy all and wish our sisters and brothers of the world strength.
24
I don’t recommend we count on Congress.
11
At least they're isolated in a luxury room with a window and a deck. They were not trapped in a prison cell or something! Why do people always complain about everything?
6
@Petunia :
yeah, jeesh, silly people, quarantined in one room, watching same movies over and over and running out of food, and oh yeah, they could die from an unknown virus. Whats not to like?
7
@Petunia
Um. ever been in a cruise ship?
Plenty of cabins don't have a window, and most are barely as big as a broom closet. Try that with 3 other people sometime.
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Because they were forced to stay in a gilded prison, with a virus that kills 1 in 50 people infected. I feel you would complain too
4
It’s like “Titanic” except the boat doesn’t sink, everyone just dies inside.
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@Sally
How many deaths, Sally? Infection is not a death sentence.
1
Two so far, Robert; did you read the article? An analogy isn’t the same as a sworn statement of fact. Brevity helps convey the gist of an idea, which is why I said “dies” rather than “gets really sick, maybe dies after the article goes to print, and infects others.”
If I was writing the article, you’d have a point. But I’m just a commentator. Go play policeman where it matters.
2
I am beyond surprised that you are not reporting about the fact that Italy, in a matter of two days, went from a few isolated cases to a sudden 18 then 50 cases as from today, with two deaths and now 50.000 people pretty much locked up at home in the north of the country. Hello?! This is Europe, plenty of americans travel here, and you report nothing?! Just wow!
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@Sprout I have read NYT every day for 30 years and never seen them suppress news. Italy will be covered, I’m sure
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@Diana Rigg It is being reported in the Times, but you have to search
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@Sprout
Yep, just what I have been thinking looking at NYT's web page each day this last couple of weeks.
Complete failure to recognize what really matters and what will not matter much by the end of this year...
I was on a cruise where the boat alone cost $14,000. Some of the folks were totally oblivious. Foolishness is everywhere despite there being only 340 of us dumb enough to pay that. Yes, I include myself in that group. 1st & last cruise I'll ever go on. Every venue had a Purell dispenser. Yay! No germs for us!
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@bills :
yup and Purell does nothing against Coronavirus, per the CDC and WHO......
And I believe most cruise ships still dump their garbage into the sea, after all, why not? Its big enough, isn't it?
4
The dumbest thing I have heard in this virus fiasco was allowing 14 infected people to travel on the same transport as many, many others who were not. Did the government think one plane would be cheaper? Did they think that everyone on that plane would not be breathing the same air within this little “can” with wings? When bureaucrats make medical decisions you can be sure a lot of people will get sick.
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I agree, and would add that 1000 passengers have been released to roam through Japan; colossal stupidity.
From an MD.
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@B. Rothman--Remember, that decision was made against the advice of the CDC, which emphasized that they should not be mentioned at all since their informed opinion was disregarded.
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@Brock Future historians will look back at the bungling and be astounded--just as we now look at the mistakes during the 1918 flu epidemic.
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And the liability lawyers are stropping their claws.
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@Sgt Schulz
As well they should be.
People seem to forget that tort laws exist for a reason. Mainly to offset humans' insatiable greed.
10
These quarantines are terrible. We can all take care of ourselves. Let them be.
Science Magazine this week dated 14 Feb 2020 says, "The world is in the dark about the epidemic's scale and speed, because existing tests have limited powers -- and testing is too spotty."
An expert, "We are underestimating how common this infection is."
The key facts are that:
** Tests are applied only to people who have developed symptoms, partly because people with limited symptoms don't go in for testing.
** The tests are not effective until the disease has progressed for several weeks.
** It is unknown how soon an infected victim becomes contagious.
** There is no known cure nor any knowledge of how effective prescription general anti-virus medications may be.
Our President called President Xi and was told that the disease is under control, and Trump believed that Xi would tell him the truth. Interesting that a liar believes other liars.
It is time that large respected media sources, certainly the NYT -- one of the country's leaders in providing information -- start hounding Mr. Trump to be absolutely sure that resources are available, NOW, to organizations like the CDC with assistance from the NIH and private research labs to ensure that quarantine protocols are in place and that a vaccine is available as soon as possible.
Our incompetent fool of a President is in the process of cutting funding to appropriate scientific medical R&D organizations.
Trump needs to act ASAP. He won't do it without media pressure!!!!
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Amen. Just anticipate what Trump will do, and hide as quickly as possible.
17
Trump? I think not.
12
I would really like to hear from the CDC and whoever is "in charge" of this for our government to hear, in detail, what the containment and treatment plans are.
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@Terry
There aren't many plans because the Trump administration has spent 2 budget years (and the upcoming 2020 budget cycle) slashing the CDC as "waste and overregulation"....
Smaller government comes with tradeoffls.
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@Terry get ready for a pandemic.
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@Terry
Whatever is known is on www.cdc.gov
Not much there, though. We are still focusing on testing symptomatic people with proven coronavirus contacts or trips to China.
Seems to me there will be lots of improvisation happening at the local level when this tsunami hits.
1
The delay in quarantine is due to the normalcy bias and happens often during disasters. Especially one as esoteric as a cold like virus that presents some with mild symptoms. They should have been removed and quarantined in a larger area without shared air vents.
I am shocked the CDC said there was no evidence it spread through air vents. While true, they had no evidence, they likely knew this was an airborne virus and should have intervened earlier. An aerosolized virus can stay in the air for hours. Six feet is also not enough separation between people to stop the spread of an aerosolized virus.
The passengers should still be quarantined for two weeks until no one else they shared close proximity with becomes infected.
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When I first saw images of this stricken ship, I saw people out on their decks directly next to others with only a barrier between. I knew then that they were in trouble. Air circulates very easy around these barriers and right into your neighbours clothes etc. As the article mentions, cruise ships have a trac record for outbreaks of viruses. I would only go on one in the summer and always carry my hand sanitiser. Making sure to fully wash my hands before eating as it a great way to get a virus into your body.
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This is a GREAT lookback on one hell of a conundrum and free-for-all. Thank you for publishing this!
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If this is the way the U.S. Government deals with the epidemic when it reaches our shores, we had better prepare to save ourselves. We may have to isolate ourselves in our own housing for awhile. The people of Wuhan have been doing so for weeks, and that's a city larger than NYC. Laying in a supply of non perishable food and any necessary meds would be prudent. Everyone should have some face masks on hand; good luck finding the better N95 types.
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@Jackson The main purpose of a mask is to try to prevent your giving an infection to others, like your kids. Think about it.
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The Diamond Princess is NOT a luxury cruise ship.
As a precaution, rather than letting passengers serve themselves, crew with gloves on their hands should have been serving the passengers as they would have done if the ship had norovirus.
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Well written article but it seems that the writer was too easy on Princess Cruises responsibility in this fiasco. What will they do for the families of the crew who may die because they still kept them in a small cabin with others and shared food lines,etc even though they knew the dangers?
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I feel so horrible for these people. Yet, at the same time, in my lifetime I've heard so, so many instances of nightmare scenarios not exactly like this but certainly not far off. And so I continue to wonder silently and aloud, why exactly would anyone go on a cruise ship?
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We are totally unprepared for this virus in the United States. Americans, for the most part, are in total denial that this virus is even a thing.
The evidence is mounting that infected persons can be both asymptomatic and superspreaders. It is increasingly likely that the maximum incubation period can be more than two weeks. There are reports that the virus can survive for a week or more on some surfaces. It goes without saying that this virus is susceptible to airborne transmission.
If you put these observations together, it is easy to imagine that six hours spent in the high density coach cabin of an airplane flying from New York to California with one asymptomatic superspreader could lead to the infection of dozens of persons, all of whom would then disperse upon their arrival in Los Angeles.
From that point on it's just rinse and repeat. There is no way we are prepared for this. No way.
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@Frequent Flyer
Don’t worry,
Trump says it will be gone by April when the weather warms up.
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@Frequent Flyer This is one glaring reason of many why the USA needs universal healthcare and intelligent leadership. Both currently lacking.
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I would be more worried about LAX-NYC as we have more reported cases on this coast.
11
As I've said before, this is unconscionable and bordering on criminal. I'm not a medical professional and even I could see that the ship was a slo-mo horror movie in the making.
I blame our global leaders, who seem more interested in retaining and expanding their power than actually leading and solving problems. This is the 21st century - the world's governments and institutions' response to the virus so far has been wholly underwhelming.
We can and should do better.
59
Your articles today on the infectivity of coronaviruses:
First you say estrogen may make a difference in the difference in infection rates between men and women. Show us a study of this with a suggested mechanism, i.e. how does estrogen affect the formation of MHC molecules, if it does?
Men smoke more in China than women, and therefore are more susceptible to worse outcomes from being infected. Who sells cigarettes in China; is this a government monopoly? What measures are taken to prevent smoking, and is the government seriously involved in this?
Why are outcomes less severe outside Hubei Province? Is it because viral load is higher at time of infection in Hubei, or is a more virulent form of the virus present. How would you test for this? Viral load at time of infection appears to be important in other viruses, such as HIV.
The cruise ship phenomena appears to be viral load connected. Is this the result of heavier load at the time of first infection, or multiple infections in a short period of time. How is the immune system overcome; is it viral load or multiple iterations (from mutation) infecting at the same time?
Keep telling us the science here. What all of this is saying, is that there needs to be more basic research into viruses, especially RNA viruses, which are more error prone in replication and produce higher mutation rates. Is there any similarity between RT in viruses and RT (reverse transcriptase) that naturally occurs in the body?
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@loveman0 continuing. With RT, what i'm getting at here is: Is there an autoimmune mechanism in the body to protect against normal RT (in producing telemeres at the ends of chromosomes during DNA replication) producing an autoimmune response? Why this might be important: RT is present in RNA viruses and hijacks the DNA replication pathway to produce more virus. Shutting down unwanted, or excess, RT present in RNA viruses might be an effective control.
Research here is that in the early embryo, RT is briefly turned on (for what purpose--still unknown). Also in late stage cancer cells, RT is turned on, thought to be because the cell is returning to a pluripotent stage--cancer is runaway cell proliferation. New cancer research is that immune cells can be trained to attack cancer cells (CAR T-cells). Applying this to RT, this would suggest that there is an immune response to limit the effects of RT in the body, i.e. prevent an autoimmune response. If this is the case, it would also be applicable to interrupting the RT pathway in viruses, or a potential treatment pathway.
3
@loveman0
My take is that the infections outside China are newer, and it takes a while for symptoms to become severe enough to kill those who are susceptible. Add in the 14-day incubation period (at least - there's a suspected case now after 38 days in quarantine), and it's completely rational that the same virus is going to have the same impact outside China once it's been loose long enough.
8
Yes this is exactly the case. Serious symptoms and death are delayed up to three weeks. It has nothing to do with “viral loads”
4
Cruise ships almost be definition are viral disease factories. My wife and I stopped cruising 10 years ago after enduring a second cruise involving a norovirus. Horrible experience. I think a big factor in addition to the fact that 5000 people crammed together sharing everything is that cruise passengers are disproportionately older with weaker immune systems. Cruise ships and viruses are a perfect storm.
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@SparkyTheWonderPup and alcohol wipes are ineffective against the norovirus.
11
Unconscionable mistakes. Where was any true leadership?
Where was the WHO? Dr. Tedros seems only now to be calling out the full danger of this pandemic. He should have been doing everything possible a full month ago when he was busy praising China.
The virus is fully out with no putting it back in the bottle. Human error through and through. Public health deserves the very best leaders and a great deal more funding. Time to care more about public health, more about the fact that people will get very sick and many will die, including in the US, than about possible economic mayhem. Economic chaos will happen anyway and the more this spreads the worse everything gets. The WHO & the CDC need to do everything possible to keep this from spreading, they need to not be hesitant, they need wise leadership. And there is not a moment to waste.
27
Both the WHO and CDC have lost all credibility. My only hope is that people realize how dangerous science led by politicians is
10
@Moosh--Our government did not listen to the advice the CDC gave them, and allowed the 14 infected passengers to fly with the others. This decision was made not by health professionals but by political bureaucrats hoping to make a popular decision and keep their jobs.
Science is dead in this government, and we are all the worse off for it.
19
If what happened with Ebola in West Africa a few years ago is any indication, then the WHO and CDC are not good at making decisions about infectious diseases.
4
The fourteen Americans allowed back while having the virus, took Trump by surprise. Small wonder since the only calculus he uses is deciding what will help or hurt his election chances. All else is beside the point.
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@Jeffrey Waingrow
I'm no fan of Trump, but I'm thinking he might set a fine example by inviting some of these people to the White House.
18
@Jeffrey Waingrow
And this well may hurt his election chances since his administration chose to ignore the protests of the experts at the Center for Disease Control and blundered ahead! When incompetence (Trump) choses incompetence (his State Department official who forced through this evacuation) you face potential disaster (pandemic).
2
@Jeffrey Waingrow maybe if he was involved in the crisis, instead of playing golf all day and going around telling his rallies that the problem would solve itself, he wouldn’t be taken by surprise.
2
Very Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio - dancing and dining as the ship is about to sink.
8
In defense of Japanese decision-makers, hindsight is better than foresight. For sure, if the ship had been evacuated, all guests placed in a quarantined institution for 15 days etc... all would be better. But in the real-time, fast moving, early days of the outbreak, making the wrong decision could also backfire and be subject to criticism. Now we know that on cruise ships, it is essentially impossible to practice good infection control (too many design constraints, narrow halls, many surfaces, people going stir crazy), and in future we will evacuate passengers into contained facilities immediately. And we'll know not to be too complacent (how much does it cost to hire the services of a full-time professional infection control practitioner to manage containment operations on the ship), but as I say, hindsight is 20:20 and this is a novel coronavirus (highly infectious, variable incubation period, possible asymptomatic transmission, fatality rate at least as high, but probably slightly higher than influenza) with which we have not encountered. SARS (moderately transmissible, fairly lethal) and MERS (less transmissibile, highly lethal) were different. With each outbreak, we learn more.
12
@Ru
Refusing to test passengers for the virus is not a "hindsight" kind of mistake....
6
Even from day 1 of the ship's plight, experts here said the japanese had likely turned a problem into a disaster.
8
"hindsight is better than foresight." Yes and no. Some of the earlier decisions regarding the passengers can be forgiven, but the later decisions are not excusable. As things progressed, they knew what they were dealing with and still did not bother taking passengers' temps to determine who was newly infected on the boat. Then letting the Japanese passengers off the boat into the city with no follow up makes zero sense.
7
Well the WHO and CDC now have their Petri dish example for a confined population of people. I can’t help but believe those responsible for public health are working feverishly to sort this disease to minimize its impacts on the worlds population.
6
I have a friend who has been on a week-long cruise to Italy over the past week - the ship is docking in America today.
While airline passengers are being screened, what about cruise ships? The case of the Diamond Princess shows how they can turn into effective floating virus vectors, but humans seem to be incapable of grasping existential threats until it's too late. (see: climate change)
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@J Anders Cruise ships don’t sail that fast. It takes a week to go across the Atlantic.
@J Anders
it is ok if you want to keep your friend in "quarantine" for a while, before you see her again. Just make sure the pizza delivery guy did not also deliver to her or someone like her, before delivering to you!
Did they (Japanese authority) really say that they didn't test everyone initially because they lack resources? There was a cruise ship docked in Taiwan around the same time in early Feb. with ~1000 on board, they tested everyone. Japan is a far bigger and wealthier country, I really find this hard to believe.
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@Albert Unfortunately it is true.
The ruling Japanese politicians and bureaucrats have no ability to manage the crisis.
However they insist that they have done well. They don't want to announce anything bad for the Tokyo Olympics.
30
@Albert
The US is bigger and wealthier too. And chose to slash the CDC budget and spend more on the military. With the best option now being to "nuke" the virus out of existence, just as we almost did with that hurricane threatening Florida!
1
I too, am surprised at the lack of description of symptoms and the lack of advice about medication and recovery. It seems this article should have done that. All I get is " watch out if you have a fever. " I had relatives who were on a cruise when 9-11 happened. They had only enough medication to cover the exact planned days. This is not good preparation in the world we live in. If you leave home anything might happen. Take enough of your blood pressure , diabetes or cardiac meds to tide you over in case of something like this. I have no sympathy for people who run out of clean underwear when there is a sink and soap in their room and they basically have nothing much to do. And anyway they charge you a fortune to wash anything.
All along I was worried about the crew and nothing was said in the news media. We kept hearing " 14 passengers ". And now we hear that no good procedures were followed for the crew's safety. This is unconscionable.
I actually like cruses and have been on several. I found that they were an excellent value for the considerable money and I've enjoyed seeing a lot of European cultural and historical sites under very comfortable and pretty safe conditions. And the staff was always lovely and they did share honestly some of their working conditions-long days with no breaks and missing their families but that it was a "good job" given their options. I would hate to see this destroy the industry but changes are clearly needed.
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@Consuelo The symptoms are indistinguishable from flu, and only distinguishable from a cold by the presence of fever. Some people don't have symptoms at all so presumably some people with the virus might have the same symptoms as a cold or flu and not have a fever.
There are no treatments other than treating the symptoms.
12
Yes lack of access to medications this is another effect on the health of people having possible long term consequences.
2
@Consuelo
I think the point of this article is that even with everything that's known about viruses and pandemics, we still can't count on an effective response in many specific situations, such as in confined quarters. Maybe the take-away here is that we will be on our own, so we should at least be informed about what to look for and what to do and not do.
7
In temperate climes flu season is winter, and in the tropics it is during rainy season (from what I've read). So maybe the old adage is literally true: sunlight is the best disinfectant?
6
@John Beale The corona virus's much like all viruses have a protective protein capsid that surrounds the harmful RNA and DNA strands that cause all the problems when they get into our cells. The trick to deactivating viruses is to somehow damage that protein coating. The RNA and DNA then are too damaged to mix with ours in our cells. So organic fluids that break down proteins such as bleach and costic soda work brilliantly. Also, when the air is hot it dries this protein out and the RNA and DNA is damaged also. Viruses are always everywhere 365 days a year, but some weather is harder for it to stay in one peace....so yes, hot weather is good for helping keep it under a certain number...but not totally.
11
This isn’t flu.
1
@John Beale
Any suggestions of how we can convince the Trump administration of that fact? He's currently blocking John Bolton's book....
10
I would find this article a lot easier to follow if after a good proem, the author stuck to a narratio in strict chronological order and made it clear that she did so. But it does not appear to be in order, and it certainly does not help that she uses terms like 'Wednesday' without a date, as if she forgot that people might read this weeks later. She also needs to take into account what we knew about the novel coronavirus and when we knew it. Only then can we know whether the decisions we now know were bad were really justified at the time based on current knowledge.
61
No matter how advanced we think we are as a civilization, there are powerful forces beyond our control that render us virtually impotent. Disease, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. all have the potential to return us to the Stone Age in an instant.
200
@William The problem with us thinking that we are intelligent beings is that we are always really easily impressed with ourselves. We judge ourselves to be genius'. I suspect we are too biased to have good judgement in that regard.
Trump thinks he is a genius, and he is a very common type of man. There are billions just like him on the planet.
45
@Chris You are correct, and I seem to be a magnet for them!
2
@William
Read "The Hot Zone" in 1994. Any ignorance or naivete about viruses and pandemics fell by the wayside. It's a terrifying true account of an escaped airborne virus with 90% fatality. That the viral breakout happened at a research facility among primates does not diminish the horror. The nightmare component was its previously unknown airborne capability.
10
I am surprised that there is so little reporting about steps that may help in treatment. Of those that have recovered do steps such as zinc tablets, mouth washes, humidifiers or over the counter anti-inflammatory meds help? Does cough suppression with expectorants help reduce inflammation of the lungs? Does early treatment with any anti-retroviral meds reduce second stage complications?
In addition, is there any possibility of global coordination of responses?
158
Some say humidity is the reason for flu season being in winter, I think because of the range and lifetime of aerosol droplets that can transmit a virus. But if so, that means what counts is the ambient humidity wherever you're near other people, not just in your own room.
@John Beale I don't know who these 'some' are, but it sounds backwards: the humidity indoors is usually low in winter, and that is where transmission of the virus seems to mostly take place -- because people are in closer contact, not because of the dry humidity. This 'contact' comes in surprising places: I avoid newspapers in breakrooms and I never touch someone else's keyboard.
24
@epitygxanwn
Dry air results in dry nasal passages which can then crack (think dry lips)...at that point a virus can enter the body through the dry "cracks"....humidity/moisture keeps nasal passages protected.
36
So when we see those pictures in the press of our leaders at summits around the globe, what exactly are they doing? Why has it never occurred to them to have planet-wide plans in place for the next pandemic, given that these have occurred throughout recorded history? And why has Donald Trump proposed huge budget cuts to the Center for Disease Control, the National Institute of Health, and others? It may be too late for us already, but if they do get this one under control we need REAL leadership to put worldwide plans in place for the next one, and the one after that.
552
@Emma Ess
My wife and I have canceled a Baltic cruise for this June because:
1. Most cruise lines reserve the right to alter or curtail the schedule and itinerary without refunds; and cancel-for-any reason insurance will add about half the cost of the cruise.
2. We are both over 70 and thus at higher risk of becoming seriously ill or even dying from COVID-19 if we catch it.
3. In the best of times cruise ships are floating Petri dishes that easily spread noroviruses; note the current COVID-19 transmissions on the Diamond Princess.
4. While our cruise ports are in countries that now have fewer than 25 cases, the coronavirus could become a pandemic affecting thousands in many countries, including those on our itinerary. Our nightmare scenario is that we or other passengers contract the disease aboard or ashore. Do we want to be treated or quarantined on the ship or in Latvia or Estonia or Russia or Finland or Denmark? No way.
For us the medical/financial risks are just too great, so for 2020 we are planning to limit our travel to US destinations we can reach easily by car or short flights.
Over time we will evaluate the coronavirus situation and see how cruise lines and foreign countries are coping. There’s always next year.
My comments are not medical advice, which readers should seek from their doctors. For travel advice, talk to your travel agent, carrier and insurance agent.
20
@Emma Ess And the USA, ever lagging, needs universal healthcare.
32
@Mon Ray I have a trip to Turkey in May. I'm on the fence about flying, but I've got a couple of weeks to decide. Many people worldwide are in our position -- giving up travel to protect ourselves. Which proves that leaders who attend summits and discuss trade, while ignoring disease prevention, fail at both.
11