Sanders Gains in Post-New Hampshire Polling

Feb 19, 2020 · 44 comments
One Nasty Woman (Kingdom of America)
Amy needs to ask Pete if he's ready to be her running mate as VP, so we can eliminate at least some of the moderates canceling each other out and giving Bernie a clear lead.
nora m (New England)
Okay, NYT, it is time to think about what you can do to start helping to unite the Democrats. For starters, stop whining and wringing your hands over Sanders. It is not a good look in any case and is not. at. all. helpful. The party needs to focus on the real goal: defeating Trump. The DNC and its allies are dividing the party and threatening not to vote for Sanders if he is the nominee. You are apparently okay with that by the way you keep bashing him. You are carrying the DNC water for them. I realize they are your friends, but the country comes first. Sanders is not Attila the Hun. Don't promote the idea that he is. He is pragmatic and has voted for bills he didn't like either because 1) half a loaf is better than none or because 2) the Democrats needed his vote to pass something. Ask Harry Reid. He could count on Bernie when he couldn't count on "real" Democrats like Manchin. Besides, when Bernie gives his word, he means it. The same cannot be said for most of the people in Congress. John McCain said that one. United we defeat Trump. Repeat that instead of creating self-fulfilling prophesies of doom that discourage voters from going to the polls in November. United we win. United we win. Vote blue no matter who.
DogRancher (New Mexico)
- Hooray for Bernie Sanders. Vote for Bernie Sanders in 2020 for President.
Max Borseth (California)
Bernie sanders is not main stream he could never beat trump. If he is the candidate for president god help all of us.
Neocynic (New York, NY)
What exquisite pleasure it is to watch elitist curmudgeons, and their careerist underlings, clutch their colostomy bags in horror at the polls and the prospect of a democracy actually working. Bernie will be the next President of the United States for as Leonard Cohen sang, democracy is coming to the USA!
Neocynic (New York, NY)
What exquisite pleasure it is to watch elitist curmudgeons, and their careerist underlings, clutch their colostomy bags in horror at the polls and the prospect of a democracy actually working. Bernie will be the next President of the United States for as Leonard Cohen sang, democracy is coming to the USA!
Leah Sirkin (San Francisco)
Nate always manages to slant things against Bernie. Several recent polls have shown him beating Trump by 11 points in a head to head matchup, and any a wider margin than any other candidate.
Gagnon (Minnesota)
Bring on president Sanders. Media outlets like the Times have tried very hard to portray Sanders' popularity as some kind of apocalyptic threat to the Democrats' values. They paint him as some kind of dangerous radical and I don't buy it (unless they mean dangerous to big business interests). I'm tired of hearing this asinine false equivalency about how his proposed centre-left policies (which are perfectly mainstream and moderate in literally any other western country) are supposedly just as bad as Donny's far-right ultranationalism. It's all just a bunch of cheap "red scare" fear-mongering. Writers like Bret Stephens and David Brooks are out-of-touch with what the Democrats' voting base actually wants from their leaders. Most people don't want a continuation of the status quo with incremental reforms that won't meaningfully address America's myriad problems. I don't get why the Times' writers are so resistant to the prospect of supporting Sanders. It almost seems like they'd prefer that Donny win again rather than support reform. Sanders has genuine charisma, grass-roots support, principles he's determined to fight for, and a willingness to stand up to the Republicans instead of just gormlessly compromising with them like the centre Democrats have been doing for forty years. It flummoxes me that anyone can look at a corrupt, racist, and unlikable plutocrat like Bloomberg (who's barely a Democrat to begin with) and think "Yes, this is our best choice for beating Donny."
Rebecca (US)
So for months the "polls" were telling us that Biden was way ahead of everyone, until voting actually started. Now we're supposed to believe that Sanders is, guess what, way ahead of everyone else. Tell me why we're supposed to think polls are credible (and I, like everyone else I know, have never been polled)? I guess it's a good way to try to manipulate voters.
susan smith (state college, pa)
It is long past time for the NYTimes to treat Bernie as the front runner. It is long past time to try to stop him. I don't need to read another article about Bernie Bros or to hear how rumpled or grumpy Bernie is. I need to see that you're actually paying attention to what is happening across this country. I read the Times daily, and saw no evidence of the fact that Bernie spoke to 50,000 people this weekend at rallies in Tacoma (over 17,000), Denver (over 11, 000), etc. This is exactly what happened in 2016. Bernie had enormous rallies, huge momentum, and the Times refused to cover this crucial story. Bernie has inspired a generation of young people to get out and practice democracy. I've taught young people for 30 years, and there is very little that can be done to motivate or inspire them. But Google these rallies. Look at how this 78-year-old man has them knocking doors, phone banking, donating their pocket change. He is giving them hope that someone cares about them -- their student debt, their increasingly uninhabitable planet. The times they are a'changin. I would tell you to get out of the new one if you can't lend a hand, but the times are too urgent. Our planet can't survive another Trump term. Bernie has created a passionate national movement. It's time for the Times to sign on to the inevitable and show America why Bernie is our best chance of defeating Trump.
Emmanuel Goldstein (Oceania)
No matter how popular Bernie is among ordinary Americans, the corporate-groveling Dem establishment will make sure, just like it they did in 2016, that he'll never get the Democratic nomination. Through all its mainstream media outlets (including this one), it will continue to either ignore Bernie or smear him mercilessly while promoting any and all of his Dem rivals. This will guarantee that can't get quite enough first-round delegates at the convention to give him the nomination, at which point the Dem superdelegates (mostly old-guard Clintonites) will jump in and nominate someone more palatable to Corporate America -- someone like Bloomberg or Buttigieg (or even HRC herself).
Brooklyncowgirl (USA.)
@Emmanuel Goldstein I would not be in the least surprised if Hillary swoops in at the last minute to “save” the party although the scenario that the party elites promote one of the current candidates to the exalted rank of the chosen one. Either way if they do this they will be pretty much insuring that their chosen one will lose. If they can’t beat Bernie fair and square then they need to accept the inevitable and do what they can to help him beat Trump.
Gagnon (Minnesota)
@Emmanuel Goldstein Bernie isn't a "real" Democrat but a life-long Republican like Bloomberg is, apparently.
Hugh Wudathunket (Blue Heaven)
Given a choice between a New York billionaire with a history of racist and misogynistic tendencies, and another New York billionaire with a history of racist and misogynistic tendencies, I am inclined to vote for a third party or write-in candidate. Hopefully, it won't come to that this time. But by changing the rules to help a candidate with deep pockets gain an advantage, the Democratic establishment is repeating the history that led to Trump's victory last time. When will they learn?
Ann Marie Bingham (West Virginia)
@Hugh Wudathunket When will you and many others learn that right now voting for anyone other than the Democratic candidate is voting for Trump and will allow him to be even more destructive than he has been this term to our country?
Tim Kane (Mesa, Arizona)
Graph #2 (the Alligator graph) at bit.ly/EPI-study shows that from 1948 to 72 GNP went up 100% and the median (meaning everyone's) wage in lock step with it. Since 1972 the GNP has gone up another 150% but the median wage has been flat. 90% of those gains have gone to the <1%. As some workers wages have gone up (health/tech) & some in good unions have floated (7%) we know that the vast majority of America's 160 million workers and their families have had to endure 48+ years of declining expectations in an economy that has grown over 150%, largely due to their efforts. The inflection point of 1972 indicates a clear, radical event. A 48+ year trend is not possible w/out complicity from elites on both sides. Essentially 1945 to 72 was the era of demand side economics that FDR gave us. Post 72 evolved into supply side (wage suppresion) econ that Reagan instituted. Bernie and the other progressives aim to return us to demand side economics of FDR. The centrist are trying to do the billionaires (<1%) bidding and maintain the status quo. The US GNP is >$22 trillion. What's at stake is literally the allocation of over $10 trillion on an annual basis which has been funneled into less than 10,000 or so families at the expense of everyone else. Bloomy is entering the race to break the inflection point but to perpetuate it. Its not in the interest of 160 million workers to vote for Bloomy or the other centrist. Sander's surge is just beginning.
Robert M. Koretsky (Portland, OR)
@Tim Kane a very well reasoned description of the defining issue of the Presidential race, and the future of American politics in the 21st century! Bravo!
Sydney (Chicago)
I cannot help but think that Bernie's polling numbers are somehow being falsely amplified by outside forces. If he wins the nomination, Dems better have a VERY solid plan B, in case his heart gives out during the campaign. I like Bernie, (not as much as some others), but I'm a realist. The fact that he won't show us his health records means that there is something troubling in those reports about a 78 year old man who suffered a heart attack 4 months ago.
Innisfree (US)
At the age of 50, I've begun to swim again. I gave it up at 15 because I became self-conscious that I was not skinny. I'm swimming again to improve my health. I feel great. Been sleeping better than I have in years. And who do I look to for inspiration? Bernie Sanders. He's the ultimate long-distance athlete. He's an example for anyone who is not young anymore but still wants to be vital. The guy is amazing. And he has my vote.
Commenter (SF)
I second commenter Autumn Leaf (Manhattan): "Next, ... for pragmatists like me, Bloomberg sure looks like a fine option." The NYT appears to oppose Bloomberg, and others do too. But those of us who aren't NYers, we see that Bloomberg got elected mayor three times, and the last time voters changed the local term limits law just so they could vote for him. On electability grounds, Bloomberg wins hands-down. Trump would make mince-meat of Sanders.
Casey S (New York)
You clearly have no clue what you’re talking about. Bloomberg bought a third term, just like he’s trying to buy the Dem nomination. And his past remarks on race, gender, policing and inequality are well documented and are already doing damage to his so-called “electability”.
Jane (Texas)
He got elected three times as a Republican mayor of New York.
Gagnon (Minnesota)
@Commenter I can't for the life of me understand why so many Democrats have started fawning over Bloomberg these past few weeks. I could maybe understand it if he had some kind of genuine charisma or grass-roots appeal, but... he doesn't. For all the talk of "electability" when it comes to Sanders, Bloomberg has some shocking and non-negligible shortcomings that neoliberal Democrats are overlooking. I'd think that stop-and-frisk, his surveillance of innocent Muslim Americans, his stridently anti-union policies, his mistreatment of the homeless, and his continued support for Benjamin Netanyahu (an indicted fraudster and war criminal) would have killed his campaign months ago. I mean, come on, this is supposed to be the guy who will beat Donny? People endlessly complain about Sanders not being a "real" Democrat but he is at least committed to his progressive principles. Bloomberg is a craven, self-serving party-hopper who doesn't care about anything besides his quarterly earnings. The irony is that Bloomberg has an awful lot in common with Donny: they're both racist right-wing billionaires who've made a livelihood out of abusing and taking advantage of small, marginal people. If the election comes down to a choice between two Trumps, the general public will go with the one who's already in office and claiming to be anti-establishment. The Democrats will pay the ultimate price for nominating a Republican who shares none of their supposed values.
Speah (Washington D.C.)
What scares me most is that on this comment section and others (particularly on the Washington Post) is that progressive vision for the democratic party is somehow seen as the "enemy" and "too radical." From what I have seen, people who believe themselves to be moderate are so focused on playing to the mythical "moderate swing voters" that they never stop to think that maybe we as a country should doing something to address the economic inequality. Maybe it's warranted, given the ballooning student debt juxtaposed to the skyrocketing corporate profits. We live in an era where the US has never been more economically successful, while at the same time "school lunch debt" and bankruptcy due to medical debt are common occurrences. This is not normal. This is not okay. It reminds me of an MLK quote: I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to 'order' than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice... Attempting to maintain the status quo has brought us Trump. He is a symptom of a larger problem that will remain when he is gone. I hope that we as a nation do not lose sight of that.
Malek Towghi (Michigan, USA)
@Speah Well-said; well-quoted. Sen. Warren should withdraw and openly endorse Bernie before it is too late.
Gagnon (Minnesota)
@Speah History will remember the neoliberal Democrats who fervently decried Sanders and Warren as having stood against progress at a time when it was badly needed. It's appropriate that you mentioned the Civil Rights Movement, because the "moderates" at that time tended to disapprove of black activism. The "moderate" response was that it would be dangerous to give the blacks too many rights all at once. It was easy for them to champion the status quo because they didn't have to live in abject poverty and in fear of racist terrorist violence from the KKK. This is more or less a repeat of that, as now we have the centre-right/right-wing Democrats trying to convince their voters that single-payer healthcare is too "radical" for America. The next time you see Biden trying to present himself as "progressive," just remember that he spoke out against integration in favor of "states rights" on top of being good friends with the brutal segregationist Strom Thurmond. The Democratic establishment is going to choose a "moderate" and that "moderate" will lose. The party elites are once again failing to understand that voters don't want a continuation of the status quo because the status quo is untenable.
Robert M. Koretsky (Portland, OR)
@Speah wow, beautiful MLK quote, and so true of the centrist Dems who want business as usual rather than Justice as Fairness! Bravo to you!
Commenter (SF)
Democratic dilemma: Run a moderate and risk having voters decide the candidate is too much like Trump (so they don't bother to vote for the moderate Democrat, or -- worse yet -- vote for Trump). Run a left-leaning candidate (Sanders, or maybe Warren or Steyer) and hope that voters overlook Trump's predictable cries of "Socialist! Socialist! Socialist!" Frankly, both choices look pretty bad. Unless Trump gets hit by a truck, his re-election odds look pretty good.
nora m (New England)
@Commenter Please point out a candidate in the past sixty years not called a "socialist" by the Republicans. They all are. The GOP may have called "wolf" far too often. The Iron Curtain came down thirty years ago. There are two generations since then who frankly don't get why anyone cares about socialism. If anyone does, it is the younger generations who prefer it to capitalism. When they think of socialism, they think of Sanders not Stalin. The other group that responds to the term "socialist" are older scaredy-cats hiding under their beds who can't tell the difference between socialism and communism because in this country the words are conflated.
Gagnon (Minnesota)
@Commenter Sanders is still the better choice. Him not being a traditional Democrat is one of his biggest advantages. He's polled better when he's introduced himself as a "socialist" rather than a "Democrat." It's consistently been shown that he polls better than Donny in states where Donny won, and that he has the best chance out of any Democrats of beating Donny in the general election. The fact of the matter is that the population is sick of the Democrats and the two-party system in general. People are tired of choosing between right-wing neoliberal policies and far-right reactionary policies that don't benefit their interests. The country is roiling with anti-establishment resentment and most people don't want a return to the status quo. Bloomberg is essentially selling himself on that and he's going to lose if the party nominates him. If it comes down to a choice between two right-wing billionares, voters will choose Donny. Donny is the incumbent and he makes token claims about being anti-establishment.
Paul (Brooklyn)
I think Bernie was a better bet in 2016 than Hillary. He had a better chance of beating Trump. He was not an identity/social engineering obsessed Neo con. He actually addressed some of the issues of importance to swing state voters that elect presidents in the electoral college like no wars, blue college job loses etc. Bernie has to do two things imo if he doesn't want to jeopardize his election. 1-He has to state in no uncertain terms that he is not a socialist. He is a capitalist that believes in given the guy at the bottom a fair shake. Socialist could be as lethal to him as Hillary ie identity/social engineering obsessive. Both are lethal words in swing states. 2-He has to stop the us vs them mentality ie the rich are bad and the poor are good. He has to unite people both rich and poor by saying he wants to give everybody an equal shake.
nora m (New England)
@Paul Right. He has to change so he doesn't upset the moderates. As it is, he does very well in the middle of the country and with Independents. The people who don't like him are east coast white. educated, 1% wannabes who are comfortable and don't want to rock the boat. As the most popular, well-liked and best trusted politician in the country, he probably would not find your suggestions particularly helpful.
Kevin Garvin (San Francisco)
You have a very skewed bubble-wrapped view of those of us who oppose Sanders. Rocking boats have nothing to do with it. His big talk promises won’t get far if he gets the nomination and gets elected. He’ll need a large majority in both houses of Congress to restructure the American economy to fit his plans. We’ll be lucky if we keep the House. Nevertheless, his policies aside (they’re fine ideals), I personally can’t stand his and his minion’s methods. In any case, Trump and the GOP must be salivating at the prospect. (Yeah, I know, nothing I say will make a dent.)
Commenter (SF)
Agreed: It does not look good for the Democratic Party, unless Bloomberg really shines in tonight's debate: "If this article is predictive, it seems the Dem race is nearly over. So, too, are the prospects of defeating Trump."
Aaron (USA)
@Commenter Actually, it doesn't look good for the Democratic party when a former Republican is the leader of the party.
AutumnLeaf (Manhattan)
Nate, in your experience, Do you think the DNC will actually let Sanders win? They gave him no chance last time around when DWS gifted the Super Delegates to Hillary. In my opinion they will give Biden just enough to crown him the winner this time around. Do you think they, the DNC, will ever warm up to Sanders as the standard bearer? Next, ok so for pragmatists like me, Bloomberg sure looks like a fine option. No one is perfect but he as close to 'best option' as the hopefuls get. He is also an outsider. Will the DNC allow an ex-Republican outsider to win? The others, well, yea, they are just not going to happen. But these two. They have popular support, now they need the DNC support and I do not see signs of that happening. What's your opinion on this?
Ben (Los Angeles)
@AutumnLeaf Well, I think that the DNC knows that if they deny Sanders the nomination, they will practically be handing Trump the victory. No matter how much people dislike Trump, I don't believe it's enough to unite progressives if Sanders has a clear plurality and they give the nomination to Biden or Bloomberg. Also, how can they deny him the nomination if Sanders has at least 40-45% of delegates? Superdelegates only have 16% of the vote, if Sanders is at 40% and the next closest is at 20%-25%, they won't have enough to swing it and with the latter option (25%), they technically would but it's very unlikely that all 16% would vote unfiromly against the leader. Perez also said clearly that he understands that if someone has a clear lead that he understands how fractured the party would be if they denied him the nomination. At that point it would be the question of if they'd rather a Sanders' presidency or a Trump one. Another point is the fact that if Sanders ends up with 40% of the delegates on Super Tuesday, the pressure would be on the rest of the candidates to drop out which I think is likely.
nora m (New England)
@AutumnLeaf Surely you jest! Bloomberg gave the DNC $100,000 before entering the race, a pledge to give millions to down ballot candidates and to financially support whoever the nominee is. Why else would they have changed the debate criteria to get him on the stage? In November when Booker, Harris and Castro needed to have the rules changed, Perez clutched the pearls and said no, the rules could not be change in the middle of the game. Booker, Harris and Castro didn't have the requisite millions to offer the DNC despite having the backing of the other candidates.
AutumnLeaf (Manhattan)
@Ben There are 771 Super Delegates. Right now 566 are unpledged. Of the pledged ones, we have a tally that, no surprise to any one, favors Biden: Biden 69 Sander 22 Warren 21 Bloomberg 20 69 man. 69 already have said they are for Biden. Only 22 to Sanders. Right there that tells you who the DNC favors. Do you really think they will give the win to Sanders? or Buttlieg? or Bloomberg? Not. A. Chance. None. It's over man, the DNC will force feed you Biden, and hold you to your pledge to vote Democrat no matter who.
nb (Madison)
The whole voter-x-in-is-position-n-on-the-left-right-scale-and-will-vote-accordingly thing needs to be flushed. In my state (WI) this is evidenced by results in the last couple of prez elections. Political commentator/analysts need to up their games or find something they are more skilled at doing for a living.
Ismail (Columbus)
All the way to the convention. Sanders is the MAN!
David (Maryland)
Appears that the so-called progressive wing taken together has about half the projected votes. To stop Bernie, the moderates will need to coalesce around one candidate. After tonight's debate it may be clear who the likeliest person to challenge Sanders is. What seems unlikely is that the moderates will relinquish their positions to but one among them. If this article is predictive, it seems the Dem race is nearly over. So, too, are the prospects of defeating Trump.
Ben (Los Angeles)
@David I would argue that the same reasons that people used in 2016 to say Trump had no chance is being applied to Sanders. I believe Sanders has a strong base of support, is consistently rated as one of the most liked politicians within the Democratic party, same as Trump within his own party. He has the fiery support that Trump has. I believe Sanders would be just as likely to beat Trump as Biden. Almost every Biden supporter would hold their nose and vote against Trump, but much less young people would vote for Biden, making up for any deficiency Sanders would have with older voters.
nora m (New England)
@Ben Actually, Sanders is the second choice of both Biden and Warren supporters, so it is no stretch to think they will vote for Sanders if their favorite is not viable. And, they aren't.