AOC. We have had a peanut farmer, an actor, a real estate investor, an oilman, so why not a bartender?
4
Landrieu, Bullock, Bennet, Booker, Harris - pick one, ANY one!
6
That we are even having a serious discussion about who is the best person to beat the White House's most awful occupant and America's worst president by far says all you need to say about the state of the country.
In any normal world, the Democrats could run a three-toed sloth and win in a landslide.
19
Medicare is socialism. Social Security is socialism. Medicaid is socialism. LBJ was a democratic socialist. The fire department and public education is socialism. FDR and the New Deal was socialist. Why doesn’t the NY Times and the media write about the absurd anti-socialism propaganda?
28
Amy Klobuchar has the inside track to the nomination and is the best positioned to beat the pretender in the White House so, no, Biden didn't scare off the next president.
11
The problem with Biden is that he just doesn't show me the kind of energy that will be needed to take on Trump. In addition, his constant 'misspeaks' make him come across as a stumble-bum, his universally acknowledge 'stuttering' impediment notwithstanding. He really comes across as OLD, and Bernie, despite being older, has the energy and chutzpah to call out Trump when Trump is lying. Despite his self-declared democratic socialism, I believe that with the kind of criminal behavior becoming the norm in the White House, including the so-called independent justice dept. we do in fact need a revolution. And Bernie is REAL!!!!!!!!!!
11
So many Republicans are writing to the NYT to say they’d vote for Bloomberg. That should tell you something.
13
We scared off our next President -- Joe Biden.
1
Are you designing your column as a mouthpiece for the leftwing of the Democratic Party? I remember a time when columnists, even when they have a partisan posture, wrote their piece after dispassionately assessing the positives and the negatives.
Unfortunately, what appears to fuel your column is a wholesale, ‘Pelosic’ disdain towards President Trump. How much more effective and persuasive your writing would have been if you had also mentioned Trump’s accomplishments during the last three years and his insistence on delivering his campaign promises?
6
There is an obvious alternative for African Americans. It's Bernie Sanders.
11
If anyone was scared off by Biden because, in their judgment they couldn't beat him, then they don't deserve to be in the Oval Office in the first place.
5
The answer is no since Amy Klobuchar is the next president.
6
Is your thesis that we didn't have _enough_ Democratic candidates? Because that's just absurd.
3
Stop with “ imagining” ok!!!
We are in a crisis of governing.
We are poised to become a criminal monarchy with oodles of trump family and friends running for future offices.
The Freedom Caucus isn’t about freedom. It’s about a theocracy headed by a monarchy filled with oligarchs. Elections are now controlled by powerful forces in the RNC , DNC , and NRA.., add in Police Unions and military and ICE.
We voters have Absoulutely no further clout with senators and representatives. They want our money in small donations. And then we get taxed and taxed some more or arrested for being too poor to exist in a society lacking collective empathy and positive outlooks for their kids futures.
We are I. Deep doo doo folks.
Meanwhile we have cults of personality usurping viable votes in primaries from excellent candidates like Klobuchar and Warren, and Buttegieg and those drop outs Booker and Harris. I still see Gabbard as our Military cabinet member. She should be in the cabinet. Military needs her wisdom to change and encourage a peace dividend.
We are being bandied about by media and advertisers and billionaires with the millionaire contributors.
Voting may or may not get us back on a normal political continuum. If we are allowed to vote . Marshall Law looms as trump and Bannon succeed in their political chaos theory along with their leader Putin. We know Putin is our leader in abstentia.
If you are disgusted about America today just wait it will be a nightmare for blue state .
4
....and you can always get a book deal ;)
Dear David, Sweet choice of bylines.
You now are guilty of exactly what you blame as the problem with the research you did. Sanders? He's the one that's been in it to win it from early on. But, you are concerned (Worried, hand wringing, nail biting?) that he might be a problem because you got a problem with a few of his ideas. Give me a break.
Nice attempt to cover your tracks in the last paragraph though. Sabbatical?
3
The prob Democrats have right now is actually that their three best campaigners—Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar—are leading, none of them has much by way of African-American support, and Sanders is very likely unelectable.
Sorry, but Booker and Harris et al just didn’t do a very good job of running, and while I’d be happy to vote for Joe, he jist ain’t got the moxie.
I’m kind of hoping for a Buttigieg/Abrams ticket at this point, just for the sheer evil pleasure of watching the foaming frenzy that this’d cause among the jerks who scream for Trump.
4
It is these sort of irresponsible articles that will ensure that Trump will win re-election.
6
The overriding goal should be to get rid of the Putin loving Trump, his accomplices in Congress and the corrupt AG.
5
I'm happy that Biden ran and is doing poorly. He would never have been a good candidate. He's a second fiddle, always has been. But by entering the race he has proven that we can't use the "if only Biden ran" argument. You have to consider Trump's stupidity also. Why would he waste so much "credibility" in trying to go after Biden. Maybe that was the fake out for the good guys. Ha ha Republicans, Dems weren't going to choose Biden anyway.
3
The biggest Quagmire facing the Democratic Party is looking for someone who is “Perfect!”
That’s NOT going to happen, yet, the Democrats, The News Media and The Public seem to be doing this right now.
Here is my question!
Who can beat Trump. Period!!!
His name is Michael Bloomberg. HE has everything needed to do exactly that.
So why are WE putting him under the microscope for some of his past experiences and statements made years ago? How is he Today???
Think of the money he’s donated to Philanthropy alone?
He ran the largest city in the United States for Three Terms. Has he made some mistakes? You bet. He’s NOT PERFECT, but he’s come to terms with these mistakes and learned from them.
Please don’t throw the baby out with the dirty water of Trump and his Obsequious Sycophants!
3
Imagine the race without the taint of outside manipulation already poisoning it thanks to the current fraud of a President.
5
Good Lord. please no Biden.
6
I'm more worried about opinion writers at this paper actively attacking viable moderates.
3
Ever think the press, like the NYT, might have a bit to do with people's feelings about the viability of candidates?
6
Why don’t we ever hear Michele Obama mentioned as the winning candidate?
1
What it says to me is hang on to your hats, gird your loins, and get ready for another 4 (or more?) years of Trump.
3
Bloomberg is an oligarch. Full stop.
4
The Dems seem in such a muddle it worries me. The only thing that seems certain: if Bloomburg really brings on Hillary as Vice, he'll have shot himself right down.
8
Biden needs to drop out of the presidential race soon since I believe his proverbial goose is cooked.
Go Bernie!
4
So perhaps Biden turns out not to be the fave.
The irony is that the 'stable genius' was so certain Biden was the one to beat that he subverted the Constitution, violated election laws & got himself impeached trying to destroy Joe.
Any red-stater who was certain drumpf was playing 4-d chess just got their hat handed to them for lunch.
5
Leonhardt is wrong. Biden is still the strongest moderate-lane candidate against Trump. Klobuchar and Buttigieg will fold on Super Tuesday, while Bloomberg is a billion-dollar mirage.
1
I wish Axelrod would advise Amy.
2
Why don't we wait until after Super Tuesday to write-off Biden?
At least Leonhardt recognizes that Sanders has a good chance of winning- unlike other NYT columnists who use talking points from Republicans to explain why he is unelectable.
5
Frankly, two tiny states which are mainly white mean nothing.
Let's stop badgering the candidates and let them speak for themselves.
1
There were over 20 candidates, who the heck did Biden scare off?
1
Stop wringing your hands. It ain't over 'til it's over..
I immediately thought of this old SNL sketch when I read this. "Campaign 1992: The Race to Avoid the Guy Who Loses to Bush"
Things can change fast.
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/campaign-92-the-race-to-avoid-being-the-guy-who-loses-to-bush/2859836
Frankly, I think a basketful of 70+ year-olds is just boring everyone to death.
2
The “moderate” wing of the Democratic Party doesn’t search and frisk minorities. That’s the conservative, Republican Lite wing. Yet commentators like Leonhardt claim this is the “moderate” wing. Why?
4
Okay, so can the Times stop framing election coverage around "electability" now?
2
Sherrod Brown.
3
Why is Klobuchar still in this race. She is responsible for an innocent black teenager in jail for life. When his mother died, he wasn't even allowed to go to the funeral because he was a risk to society. Klobuchar has had a long affiliation with corrupt Minneapolis Police department. Minneapolis NAACP has asked her to step down from this race along with Black Lives Matter. Step Down Klobuchar, you are not Presidential Material....
5
I'm way progressive but I've got to note that right-wingers (aka moderate Democrats) would get a boost if they pooled resources. Specifically, run Biden/Buttigieg explicitly as a mentor/mentee pair. One term for Biden followed by two for Buttigieg.
We need to put up the best candidates we can to defeat Trump our number 1 goal to save our democracy from a wanna be dictator and his henchman AG Barr (Roy Cohn) . Bloomberg with KLobachar or Harris can do it vs bellowing carnival barker Trump ,Bloomberg can call him out for lying fraudster he is . Bloomberg has give away billions to help progressive causes , Trump is not allowed to run a charity because he defrauded it, Trump is not self made by a spoiled heir with questionable contacts in the NY and Russian mob. Trump compare to Bloomberg is a win for Bloomberg by any measure.
1
I have no idea who can "beat" Trump in November and neither does anyone else. (Especially because we already know Trump is cheating again; we just don't know all the ways he's doing it.)
But Biden torpedoed his own campaign by failing to stand up for himself and his family. He let Trump turn a stale, irrelevant, debunked meme about Hunter Biden into a campaign "issue" in 2020.
Is Biden simply too decent and ethical a person (and father) to take on a dirty dealer like Trump? If he wouldn't fight for his own son, voters have reason to question if he'd be able to fight for us. And the stakes -- the constitutional rule of law in America -- couldn't be higher.
4
I want all the candidates, not just my first choice to be more electable. I want Mike Bloomberg to talk a lot about income inequality and I really want Bernie to talk about Roosevelt and the unfinished New Deal as opposed to "Socialism" which both he and his surrogates have done a terrible job of defining (I'm looking at you Nina Turner!). Also Bernie, bringing the reviled and the uncontrollable Susan Sarandon back as an official surrogate is not a good look if at the end of the day you want to promote party unity, as any nominee must.
3
Why wasn't Axelrod reassigned the Chairmanship of the DNC if he's so on target with his assessments? I personally think Bloomberg is the exception of not getting into the race earlier and think is timing is proving that maybe late is better than nothing. Bloomberg was making a 300 million dollar commitment and he didn't enter the race thinking he just thought the 300 mil petty cash. He's on a run and the smut is coming out again with no reason as to why such grievance has been not forthcoming years ago. I don't go all the hoopla as to why intelligent people reserve that angst for that long. Just doesn't add up. And all they had to do in the workplace is confront a so called dirty mouth and tell them point blank in front of others that they don't appreciate this off the cuff remarks. Unless I missed it there was no actual action on Bloomberg's part. Only verbal assaults. They would not have been fired if they state their objections with others in the group within ears way. Bloomberg is the one. Would be the DNC's downfall if they don't consider him. This is not your ordinary election. We have a nutcase in office and he's done massive damage that could be irreplaceable if not fast action is taken now. This is where now is better than before or after. Don't miss today and give up the future..
2
I plan to vote against Trump, no matter what. That said, will that mean that will like the Democratic candidate? Probably not; I didn't like it last time. To me, there's a crucial lesson in 2016: anyone running for President with so much (unattended?) baggage as Secretary Clinton will be a serious liability for the Democratic Party. Never mind the lame slogan. It is Secretary Clinton's fault that we're in this mess in the first place.
Biden - with the skeletons already out of the closet, and no good plan? Sanders & Warren - could anybody be more easily be painted into the irrational leftist crazy corner? Could the Dems make it any easier for Trump and his lawless bunch to pre-print targets already?
On another note: seems to me this is the oldest set of potential candidates we've seen. That also doesn't strike me as a good thing. I am not looking forward to November.
2
Democrats claim to want the candidate that is most "electable" against Trump. That Trump is a terrible human being, that he is racist, anti-immigrant (when he is neither, but he is anti *illegal people living in the US*), and so on.
But if Democrats truly meant what they say about electability, they would have a candidate who holds the same major policy decisions as Trump, but be a "nice person."
For example, Trump is popular because he is anti-illegal immigrants. He is against sanctuary cities both policy positions admired by his many supporters. To be against people living here illegally is not racist nor is being against sanctuary cities.
Yet, there is no Democratic candidate that takes Trump's same policy position regarding *illegal* immigrants residing in the US.
Similarly, many of Trump's supporters are for women's rights to use a bathroom without a genetic male claiming he is a woman invading their privacy. They feel that girls in high school sports should not have to compete against genetic males in events. These are both women's rights issues that for some reason most Democratic Presidential candidates including the women, do not seem to support.
The best candidate that can beat Trump would be one that took his policy position on illegal immigration and on women's rights. Yet, there seems to be no Democratic candidate willing to take those positions, thus it seems that the Democrats are not truly serious about winning the Presidency.
4
Don't write off Elizabeth Warren. I believe she's better as a back-marker than a favourite. America needs an energetic straight shooter.
2
I will vote for Bernie if he is our nominee. But there’s no way he’s going to beat Trump. Just the mere words, “socialist,” “revolution,” etc. will be more than enough to scare off and turn off millions of moderates.
2
Surely 'someone' out there could beat Bernie.... not. When the divide between the "halves" (Mr. Leonhardt's side, of course) and the "have nots" has gotten to this point - and there are so many "have nots" - it's just sort fate in a democracy. If Mr. Leonhardt doesn't like what democracy has in store for him and maybe looking for an offshore account he might want to consider accompanying his money.
1
Let’s say Bernie becomes president by a slim majority in the Electoral College. Do “New York Times” pundits think we’d have anything but another 4 years of impasse and chaos? And face it all voters should pay close attention to Bernie selection of a VP.
3
Typiical of classic "lament" articles, this one does mot offer any agency to the candidates that Biden "scared off". They are politicians, ig they cannot gauge tje right time to go for it and cannot estimate the strength of a candidate like Biden then they are bad at their jobs. End of story.
3
Great advice, David. But it's just a few months too late.
2
"Sure enough, he has not prevented Pete Buttigieg, the 38-year-old former mayor of a small city, from becoming a serious candidate. Nor has Biden kept Amy Klobuchar’s once-moribund campaign from getting a new life. "
No mention, of course, of Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, the latter seeming to be the leader overall, at this point. Just an oversight, I suppose. oops! Oh! They do get mentioned in passing, in regard to the campaign of 2016!
How about getting behind Sanders and supporting his efforts to make this country a decent place for people of all kinds to live? He has no chance of implementing everything he's talking about, but if you start with crumbs you end up a slave to the baker! In unity is strength!
1
"With the current campaign mired in uncertainty, I think some Democrats and pundits are missing this lesson. "
Just think where we'd likely be today if the NYT, WaPo and other key newspapers hadn't given all the oxygen in the room to two candidates in 2016: Clinton and Trump.
Pundits have been telling us for a year that Biden is the only candidate who can pull the party together. Sadly, the Democratic Party elite appear ready to do to the lead candidate in 2020 what they did in 2016. Rewrite the rules for insiders and to heck with the rest.
Between Party leaders who know so darn much and pundits who know so darn much us mere voters lack good information on the whole field. And the network controlled "debates" further the idiocy by focusing on what sells rather than what could govern.
Every single editorial should come with statistics on the pundit's prediction score. Every report of a poll should remind us of the failure in 2016 for almost any of the pollsters to get it right. Dewey wins again.
3
"Did Biden Scare Off Our Next President?"
Such an interesting headline.
The guess the assumption is that Biden never had a chance of being president in the first place.
1
ALL PUNDITS like Mr. David leonhardt can theorize, prognosticate, predict, prevaricate and vax eloquent all they want but they do not know any more than the Common Man. Actually the Common Man knows more than these Pundits because he has no ideology, he is not thinking to impress any one, he is not going to make money by telling or writing about it. All the Common Man does is; he feels from the Gut, he listens and sees if it touches him, touches his heart and does he believe the candidate. Common Man is smart.
And, the Common Man does far better than all these PUNDITS.
That's why these PUNDITS almost always get it WRONG.
1
Surely 'someone' out there could beat Bernie.... not. When the divide between the "halves" (Mr. Leonhardt's side, of course) and the "have nots" has gotten to this point - and there are so many "have nots" - it's just sort fate in a democracy. If Mr. Leonhardt doesn't like what democracy has in store for him and maybe looking for an offshore account he might want to consider accompanying his money.
1
I'm not going to go on a tirade about the media, I'm just here to say that a whole industry has grown up to poke us, test us, and poll us to then turn around and tell us what we think, or thought. This industry may have thought it started to serve us and inform us about what has happened, but it has grown far beyond that. Then it has brought in pundits who cross the line to tell us not what they see as what they want to see. And now this whole organism is getting mad because it can't tell us what has happened and wants to tell us we are the bad voters because we have not decided and clouded their vision. It is time to go back to some truths we have to know since we took our first Civics Class in the 7 grade, our Federation has always been messy and also has its own built-in corruption. It has always been like wrestling a pig and we and the pig keep learning, and the matches get more high stakes and rougher. When the media interjects itself as it has around the election campaign it becomes the news and there it loses its way. Fox has always been propaganda and I believe Time hasn't for now. Still the Times and Fox complete. If you want to see how dangerous this can just look to our little brother Australia. Ruperts Empire down there has suppressed the news of the fires and still claims global warming doesn't have anything to do with it. Or China and the Novalcorona virus, with over 1500 dead along with the whistleblower. Foxs is only good for the short term.
2
There is no question that Elizabeth Warren would make an ideal president. Bernie should cool his jets and recognize that his age and his health are limiting factors for his candidacy. He made the error of labeling himself as a democratic socialist which in this politically naive country has been converted into "Communism" by the right wing. He should put his massive ego ion the back burner and join progressive forces with Elizabeth Warren.
Biden may be a moderate but he transmits the impression that he is not all that sharp and/or not all there. Bloomberg is a Republican at heart and is trying to take advantage of the Democratic Party's lack of unity. He is however, still light years ahead of the ignorant, incompetent Donald Trump with his Dictatorship staffed by his GOP lackeys.
At the end of the day, the key message to all Americans who care about the future of this nation, including the Bernie bros that sat out the 2016 election, is Vote Blue, No Matter Who. Vote Blue...or its game over!
5
Biden didn't scare off Steve Bullock. Or Michael Bennet. Or Hickenlooper. Or Gillibrand. Or....
We had our shot at other moderates, and we passed on them.
Don't blame Biden for the dearth of moderates in this campaign. Blame us.
2
Seems Mr. Leonhardt didn't get the memo that the paper would have to start covering Bernie Sanders in a fair way (at least somewhat). Giovanni Rusonello got pulled from the bench for an article today that pretty much negates Mr. Leonahardts concerns here. It's entitled, "Bernie Sanders Is on the Rise. But How High Can His Numbers Go?"... and is way overdue.
2
"It wasn’t so long ago that people were claiming that the other moderates had no chance to beat Biden."
They were right! the case is clear:
Joe Biden for POTUS with Amy or Kamala as VP .
Joe will dump drumpf and retire within a year or so-
leaving his VP, Amy or Kamala to reign for 6 to 10 years.
Joe wants to beat drumpf and, finally, be elected POTUS.
no interested in administering. been there under Obama.
I'm still mad at the media for giving tRump billions of dollars of free promotion in the 2016 campaign. And compounding that with every bit of negative news about Hillary.
Media- you own this debacle.
3
A strange observation in one of the widest, most diverse primary fields in recent D primary history.
Also this piece is eerily reminiscent of a op-ed in yesterday's Washington Post (by Molly Jong-Fast), similarly based on tortured-yet-inventive logic without reference to history.
Stop putting the sensational ahead of substance pls
1
Dave, you haven't been counting -- actually I've lost count myself. But at least 12 candidates put themselves forward to run against Uncle Joe. Intimidated? They knew, as did many Bernie supporters, myself among them, that Joey didn't have the legs and wouldn't last. Afraid to run v. Joe? I think the dirty dozen were eager to do so.
Fear mongering. And CNN says that the world is bracing for another four years of Trump. Don’t they know that Warren has been chosen to save the US from Trump making America great again?
I agree with you Mr. Leonhardt. Biden has bent over so far backward he may not recover. There is something to be said for taking the plunge, making the commitment. Campaigns are expensive and draining, but what about all the money spent so far; as well as all the talk? Make that an investment and stay in the race!
Clinton lost for two reasons. First, she did not need to be loved as did Bill. Second, she underestimated the capacity for millions of people to hate a stranger based upon preposterous lies.
Democrats and Republicans share a weird but human characteristic, sharing a common view with those with which they affiliate that involves inanely dumb views of people who are not in their group. So Clinton had a secret life involved with a pizza shop that covered a child molestation conspiracy according to a social media story. All founded upon really dumb ideas, that Clinton tried to introduce a single payer health care system and did not divorce Bill because she’s a crooked and evil person.
Instead of this searching for the fatal flaw in Democrats or rejecting them for not satisfying every preference of the core constituencies of the Democratic Party, start being a little tolerant and find a set of core interests that the vast majority of voters want and play to win.
1
After Climate Change, Healthcare is the thing. Medicare for all. Already there is a computer system in place.....imagine that ONE healthcare record. Not one for the lab, or the imaging or the doctor’s office. I love working at the VA bc we have ONE computer system. Everyone, just imagine that!!!!!
1
An erstwhile candidate who doesn't get into the race because another candidate is already running has already answered in the negative the fundamental question anyone pondering a run for the White House should ask, "Am I the best person for the job?"
Enough of the feckless hand wringing!
2
What? You're still grousing about the size and strength of the field? There were over twenty candidates at one point, and not all of them could fit on a debate stage. How much bigger should it have gotten? We have two fantastic candidates in Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Either one would make a great president, far superior to the overweight toad currently squatting in the White House. Quit your complaining and vote for one of them!
1
I am still wondering where we would be if Senator Sherrod Brown had jumped in the race. Alas, we’ll never know.
1
Hopefully, Amy will win. Do not be surprised if her VP comes from the group of dropped-out Dems.
1
Yes, Biden did scare off great viable candidates and took all the oxygen out of the room so amazing people like Cory Booker couldn't get the funding they needed.
Luckily Buttigeig is still in it and he would be amazing.
2
Nothing about this election is "normal," so no one (especially the press) should be writing off any candidate.
Just let it play out, and stop the pointless speculation and predictions.
156
@SLB Agree. It’s like Trump v Clinton never happened. We need to be humble and not think conventionally about who the best candidate would be. Polls systematically underestimated closet Trump supporters. Relying on a city Dem in a suit thinking people are sick of Trump is a big mistake.
6
What I'm hearing is, nothing is predictable, nothing can be ruled out, nothing is absolute. Very true--but then, why did so many get scared off?
Was it lackluster debate performanc? Lack of funding? Lack of passion, in the face of so many candidates?
For a time, I really liked Corey Booker then was sad when he threw in the towel. I was rooting for Warren last summer, but suddenly got tired of all the wonkery and her financing ideas, something that still bothers me with progressives.
I really wanted to love Joe Biden, and did for a time, but now find he just looks, well, tired.
But really did me were the debates--20 people standing on a stage even after 3 debates. I mean come on! Nobody can shine with so many rivals standing in line.
I don't think candidates were driven away by Biden but they may have been by the grueling, convoluted process.
There's got to be a simpler way to choose a candidate.
177
@ChristineMcM I still like Senator Warren. I don't think she is necessarily the best candidate, but I think she could easily be the best president: thoughtful, listening and flexible in her approach to problems that need solving. I think we need her.
78
@ChristineMcM
Christine, I enjoy reading your commentary and I value your opinion. Since your are from Massachusetts, I think Senator Warren would form a great White House team but I am not certain that should she win the Presidency would Massachusetts send a Democrat to the Senate. I have the same reservations about Senator Klobuchar. If we have learned anything over the past 40 years, the Senate majority is crucial to creating a better society. So, Joe Biden has the greatest potential for strengthening the Senate.
I think he would be less "tired" if he focused more on the future in his stump speech. We have lots of issues that need correction but it will take a master to bring the Senate together on the important issues: global warming, income inequality, infrastructure, environment, health care, and access to opportunity.
Joe Biden is younger than me, I still work and I feel great.
8
@ChristineMcM
I'm curious about why you suddenly got tired of all the wonkery and financing ideas. And why does that bother you with progressives?
Do you not want candidates to have ideas that they advance? Surely you're not saying that it's the emotional response that's most important.
Trump has made a lot of promises, but they typically turn out to have little substance. Healthcare is complicated; who knew? That goes for virtually every issue facing our nation.
I agree that the primary system is grueling and convoluted. There has to be a better way to choose a candidate.
And while we're looking for that, let's try to reduce the role money places in the process.
15
So...let me see if I have this right? A Democratic Socialist is next to unelectable (despite early caucus results), but a reality TV show star who would have more money had he never tried his hand at business was a perfectly sane choice back in the Republican Primaries of 2015-16? I mean, you do see where the bar has been set and who/what people will vote for nowadays, right?
Why aren't we past the point of saying who and who isn't electable in these pointless articles and op-eds? Maybe just let the people speak (preferably by Popular Vote)?
199
@Christine
Popular vote, but only with ranked choice. After Iowa though, and most likely Nevada, ranked choice would seem to be above the pay grade of the party poobahs.
14
@Christine
Clearly, the MSM and so-called moderate/centrist voters have failed to learn from history in that last two Presidents the pundits claimed would be "unelectable" were Donald Trump and Barack Obama. Already forgettable, but, before the primaries even started the "experts" had picked Kamala Harris and Beto O'Roarke as having the inside track on winning the nomination and because he was going to be in a large field where several candidates were including many of his ideas in there platforms, many thought Bernie Sanders would fizzle out early and depart the campaign.
Well, here we are, none of this has happened the way the experts envisioned and I say, let democracy take its course and remember, whoever is the democratic nominee, instead of being the outlier, Trump is now the incumbent President with loads of baggage.
43
@Deus I miss Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke (who was never taken serious by national media)!
2
The surprising thing to me is that anyone felt that Biden was a formidable candidate. He has many weaknesses, and he has never done well when he has run for President.
226
@Bruce
Name recognition, sad to say, is the overriding attraction for a critical mass of the electorate.
10
@Bruce I never saw the Biden who, for example, delivered that powerful speech at McCain’s funeral.
Instead, he struggles to finish a coherent thought and even gets testy with voters when challenged. That’s not the Joe we remember.
I think a lot of people had/have fears about him slipping. He probably would have won in 2016, a real shame.
11
Biden has embarrassed himself three times before in failed presidential runs. Not just lost but been embarrassed. But as the reigning friend of corporations and big money in the party he was the obvious next standard bearer. The Democrats obviously do not care about winning elections, they only care about keeping friends of corporations on both national tickets. With Biden running the rich win no matter which way the election goes. What we are seeing is the voice of the people attacking the corrupt Democratic Party establishment and attempting to at least create the outlines of a legitimate political race. Bernie has forced all the rest of the candidates to speak out of the left side of their mouths at least during the primaries. But it is clear that the people know there is only one people’s candidate running. Let’s see if they can make the Democratic establishment hear them.
9
I have certain policy preferences that dictate my choice among the Democratic candidates. If another candidate becomes the nominee, I may not get the policies I want, which would be sad. But I know with certainty that if Trump continues in the White House, I will get many, many policies I do not want, which would be even sadder. So I will vote for the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is.
6
Slightly tired of the continual bashing of the candidates, we have been listening to this for two years. Everyone needs to get out the vote, get people registered and we will win no matter who the nominee is.
This endless discussions while Trump is tearing apart every system in this country needs to end. We need to focus not on what Trump's daily distracting antics are but what he has done to the country, do stories on the zip codes that have these Trump judges. That is meaningful but this endless writing about the candidates is exhausting.
2
None of these candidates could have beaten Trump. The party is in disarray and has no real plan. Trump will be president for another term and democrats have no one to blame but themselves.
2
Donald Fry
You must live in a very insular world. Friends, family, colleagues, and acquaintances across the USA feel otherwise.
1
I think part of the problem is holding too many debates. The questions have often been poor. The overexposure leaves candidate's flaws glaring. The bickering distracts from the biggest goal, beating Trump. After 2, I could not take any more "response re runs".
4
As for Joe Biden not winning either the Iowa primary or the New Hampshire primary...pleas don't count this good man down and out just yet. There is a long road to November.
3
I haven't made up my mind, yet, although the primary here in Texas is on "Super Tuesday", which is just two weeks from tomorrow, and early voting starts earlier.
I will choose from one of three candidates. In alphabetical order by first name these are Amy Klobuchar, Mike Bloomberg, and Pete Buttigieg.
A major reason for this hesitation: I'm quite aware of the 15% rule. If a candidate gets less than 15% in the primary she or he gets no delegates. That's how Warren and Biden came up short in New Hampshire. My preference is probably Amy or Pete, but I want to see results from the Nevada caucuses this Saturday, and the South Carolina primary a week from Saturday. If neither Amy or Pete looks strong, I'll be for Bloomberg.
My wife and I give money to candidates. Not lots of money, but we gave $50 each to MJ Hagar and Royce West who are running for the U. S. Senate nomination here in Texas. Either would be a strong candidate and a great senator, and it would be good for Sen. John Cornyn to be retired so he can recover his conscience. We have 11 candidates in the race for the Democratic party nomination, and most of the other 9 are pretty hugely unqualified. It would be good to have MJ or Royce as the nominee, and it would help us in the possible, though not probable carrying the Democratic party Presidential ticket here in Texas.
2
Amy Pete Biden Obama & Hillary are all of the same corporate democrats. Bloom will be a less openly corrupt version of Trump. It’s time for money in politics to end and end corporate influence #RepealCitizensUnited
1
It’s not silly to say Sanders has no chance to beat Trump. He. Has. No. Chance. He will lose like McGovern.
10
@walkman
One graph should change this for you. You can see for yourself, the percentage of Independents in 1971 was 29% and Democrats was 43% - in 2015 these numbers flipped! (And Independents strongly favor Bernie over other Democratic candidates.) This is why the polls have shown since 2015 that Bernie is the Democrats' best hope. You may not like this, but it's just the way it is....
https://www.people-press.org/interactives/party-id-trend/
2
Or win like FDR
1
Did you write Mitch Landrieu, Mr. Leonhardt? Really, after just two primaries, you are so convinced that the Dems are going to lose in November, that you're pining for the woulda-coulda-shoulda days of the Landrieu campaign?
This type of "analysis" is part of the reason that the Democratic Party is so lost in the woods. Another part is the endless hatred of Trump (remember what your mother told you about the problem with being a hater) and a similar hatred of America. Another part is a silly but dangerous obsession with wokeness. Another is the hip interest in socialism -- naturally, it has been renamed "democratic socialism" to make it purportedly more acceptable.
The only hope for the Dem Party's future is to take its loss in November, admit all its errors, and humbly start over. Perhaps you could even ask the Lord for some guidance.
What affects elections more than people hereabouts realize are the pathetically politicized reactions of news people to everyday events.
Maggie the reporter goes to the Daytona 500 and encourages the political Right by her acidic reaction to the presidential limousine going around the track.
Have people NOT figured out by now that shared reactions of normal, everyday people to such quacking revs up chatter among Trump supporters?
This chatter locks in a higher participation rate on the Right while stirring more consideration by Black and Hispanic Americans asked to #WalkAway from the Democrat plantation.
Most high school graduates here are getting clued in to the political plus among conservatives generated by Jeff Zucker's bald politicizing at CNN-FN, but the chiming in at the Times and WaPo sprays about social media for its own effect.
What I observe, actually, is that most Trumpists have picked up Hizzoner’s nastly little habit of denigrating women every chance he gets. The ones who didn’t already have it, that is.
2
The problem is all these Democrats promising to end Trumps presidency. Well Pelosi Nadler Schiff and Schumer have tried that already and failed miserably. The Ukrainian President when interviewed on CNN said he could not believe what he was watching being done by the Democrats. He basically called the impeachment and the Democrats a farce TV Show.
End Trump End Trump End Trump. With what? The democrats are going to claim the economy is bad? Yeah nearly 7 million new jobs created, 6.5 million jobs unfilled, wages rising for the lower paid faster than those above.
Trump will get a much larger block of minority voters than before. They are the silent voters who have benefited from Trumps policies. It really helped when last week Warren said at a campaign rally that the Democrats at least need the black Americans, "at election time.
BIden didnt scare of Democrat nominees from being elected, the democrats promising free everything to illegals, raising taxes to fund putting people out of work are why Trump will be re-elected, and in a landslide.
Actually, the Democrats seem to be pointing out that a) Trump’s job creation rate isn’t actually as good as Obama’s, especially in manufacturing, and b) Trump intends to cut Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security.
The approach has the advantage of being true, as opposed to the typical “open borders,” ranting and the pity parade for poor, poor picked-on Mr. Trump.
6
This argument makes no sense - who are the moderates that were scared off by Biden? Mitch from Louisiana - that is a joke!
The problem is that the Democratic Party has no leader. This is similar to the Republicans in 2016, which is why Trump was able to take over the party. But there's no one like Trump on the Democrat side, although Bernie has rabid followers like Trump's followers who will bully opponents. I find that kind of bullying terrible and hope to talk soon.
Best,
Bernie
1
Yes, Bernie can beat Trump. Please nominate him.
- Trump 2020
4
If Biden wins the nomination, I'll vote for him. Also for Bernie, reluctantly. But I think Bloomberg is the best choice.
But why does no one question the absurd length of the U.S. election process? It's two years, and that's just when it gets in full swing. No nation on earth has ever suffered this. Why do we have to be the first?
1125
@bnyc The US election campaign has not been conducted, yet. We are merely in the political parties‘ candidate selection process, generally conducted by primaries. They could do them a lot more efficiently. Indeed, they could return to doing it via private meetings, with no worse an outcome. Such a process in the Republican Party in 2016 would have spared us Trimp.
35
@bnyc Beyond this is the fact that for many voters, it really doesn't matter what they think.
Their states will vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate determined before they even get to vote. The winner take all aspect of the Electoral College setup makes the whole process rather meaningless for them (myself included).
Do you want to change it? Good luck with that. I see little chance of this changing, much less the passage of any Constitutional Amendments, in my lifetime of frustration with our inability to change anything in the USA. At least I no longer hear people saying how wonderful is our archaic Constitution, as many have learned about its problems and failures.
35
@bnyc Not to mention the fact that at least for Democrats and the media, it seems to matter somehow what happens in two small states with a pittance of delegates at stake.
35
The recent book SMARTCUTS makes an interesting point. The average president over the past 100 years has been around 55 years old and held elected office around 8 years. The only candidate in that ballpark is Klobuchar. In addition, the more experienced candidate FREQUENTLY loses - Bush I lost to Carter, Hilary lost to Trump, McCain lost to Obama, many examples. The point is that Biden was NEVER a winner based on these historical metrics. He was more like the next Adlai Stevenson than the next Carter, Obama, or Bill Clinton, to name winning Democrats.
The profile in the past 100 years is to be around 55 years old an in office around 8 years, not to be around 100 years old and in office around 55 years.
1
@Bruce Quinn. Bush I lost to Clinton. Gerald Ford lost to Carter, although Ford was never elected president in the first place. He became president by way of Nixon's resignation.
The simple fact of broad coalition politics is all the preferences of the constituents which only appeal to a small proportion of those coalitions and which if considered deal breakers cause those coalitions to fail. The problem with Democrats is that core constituents are preoccupied with their preferences and not considering what set of preferences they can choose to appeal to a great majority and not make a governing consensus impossible.
It’s tough to overcome disagreements about important issues. Global warming, the need to assure the basics of life for all, the costs of satisfactory national defense, the constraints upon government which assure individual liberties. The role of government in a liberal democracy, the importance of respecting the needs of minorities where majorities ignore them to maintain a consensus that is needed to support democratic governance, etc. These are big issues which recent political leaders have evaded quite openly.
1
the reason trump is president is he lied and told the RNC if anyone goes after me in the primaries I will leave and run as an Independent. He said I am so rich I can fund my own campaign. We now know he lied he didn't have the money to fund his own campaign and he doesn't use his own money. He actually makes the campaign use his facilities where he charges the campaign premium rates. So all the Repub candidates tiptoed around him.
5
None of these candidates will drive Trump from the Oval Office. Furthermore, none will gather the delegates to get close to clinching the nomination but will be part of a pragmatic process of nominating a candidate to challenge Trump. Who might that be?
My answer: Michelle Obama and only she. Doesn't Michelle have the gumption to settle a grievance with the spewer of hate? Won't Bloomberg kick in his support? Won't Michelle make a big difference? She has what it takes to make a great leader and a great President.
Go Michelle! Make history! Again. Please.
2
You missed the obvious. Biden should have run in '16. Had he run he would have had a far better chance to take Pa. Mi. Wi. Possibly Ohio and Florida. His time was then, ala, HW Bush following Reagan. My very conservative mates from deep red states readily admit he likely would have won. Now he's doing the Hillary, running when it's past his time. Sanders is far stronger than this writer and many others believe.
5
@Northcountry
2020 eyesight!
2
Sorry, but Sanders is not a Democrat. He is a “democratic Socialist”.
As a Democrat, I won’t vote for him under any circumstance.
2
Wonderful. I hope you take a bow when America gets for more years of Trump.
2
What you’re actually saying is that you would prefer to help Trump (most definitely not a Democrat) win than to vote for Bernie. You okay with that?
2
I think the main issues is that the candidate drives too many decisions. What does the party stand for, what should it work to achieve in the next term? Instead, pick a candidate and let the team trying to get him/her elected decide, based on focus groups, the campaign promises.
I read the Adam Gopnik piece in the New Yorker, "13 ( well, 10) ways of looking at Impeachment and Acquittal." Even though I am a Warren supporter, I totally agree with Gopnik that " if the Democratic Party could vote its conscience and its honor right now, it would surely end, en masse, by nominating Schiff for President."
7
I think that there are probably quite a few counter examples of the phenomenon you are citing. One thinks, for example, of John Connolly of Texas running for president—did doing so and spending lots of money doing it really get him anywhere? I don’t think so. And one thinks pf Beto O’Rourke much more recently. Do you really think he’s better off having run for president and not done very well at it? I am sure that there are a number of other examples that I can’t recall right this minute without researching the matter. But I just don’t think it’s a clear-cut issue.
5
My guess is that Michael Bloomberg passed up the first few primaries for the same reason that he passes up small business deals - he prefers dealing with larger numbers, be they dollars or delegates.
8
The very length of the election season drives away qualified candidates. It's a tremendous disruption for a candidate and his family. Some candidates started campaigning more than 22 months before this year's election.
Compare that to the UK's general election in 2019.
Nov. 6: Parliament dissolved; official start of the campaign
Dec 12: Polling day
Just 36 days.
4
@ACounter
Change:
It's a tremendous disruption for a candidate and his family.
to
It's a tremendous disruption for a candidate and his or her family.
2
The U.S. long election season has a big advantage. We get to know the candidates, there's time for investigative reports, multiple debates reveal strengths and weaknesses, policies have to be explained and can be analyzed, candidates' abilities to handle controversies, tough questions, and contemporary affairs become much clearer, etc.
@Marsha Pembroke
Actually, in many ways, it also just becomes "survival of the fittest". I am sure now and in the past, there have been many qualified candidates wishing to run for office, however, when their first order of business is to determine whether or not they can raise enough money just to "get into the game", no doubt, they just do not believe it is worth the time and effort, especially if they are not currently an existing politician who has no worries about income.
4
I was hoping for Pamela Harris, or perhaps if it had to be Biden, then a Biden/Harris ticket. Harris would make an excellent VP, and I hope she will be considered seriously, by the undoubtedly male Democratic nominee.
1
I support Bloomberg, Sanders, Warren, Biden. I think Bloomberg, Sanders, and Biden would win against Trump, and I think Warren would have a shot at it.
None of the other candidates would win against Trump. Trump fears Biden and that is why the Ukrainian squeeze on funds debacle.
Sanders would be great, so would Bloomberg. So would Warren, and Biden would be quite helpful as president in world affairs in particular.
The only hesitation I would have with any of these is if they wanted to have Hillary as VP. ABSOLUTELY NOT do not put her anywhere near the White House or on the Cabinet. WE need to be done with her. She is radioactive.
3
@MJB
Almost everyone that voted for Hillary will vote Democratic in the next election. My guess that a lot of people who voted for Trump will not vote for him this time but the question is, do these people live in the correct states. Therefore I think its imperative that who ever is nominated, if they aren't an economic progressive (Amy, Pete, Joe or Mike) they must pick as their VP a credible progressive (Bernie, Liz, DeBlasio or Yang, perhaps in that order) to broaden their base and give progressives a reason to show up on election day.
The fact is, Hillary lost an easily winnable election to a candidate who is grotesquely decadent, because she didn't pick Bernie as her VP and give progressives in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania a reason to show up at the polls on election day (Reagan faced the same situation and chose his primary rival as his VP to ensure that his rival's wing of the GOP showed up on election day to vote: they did and he won).
I've not yet forgiven Hillary for not picking Bernie as her VP. It makes no sense to me. That hubris cost liberals one or two supreme court picks.
13
@Tim Kane
Amen. Tim.
3
you're partly right. i was an early supporter of sherrod brown, until he decided not to run. if he were in the race, i think he'd be the current leader.
on the other hand, i'm happy the republican, bloomberg, held off running as a democrat. if he were the nominee, he would drive down democratic voter turnout: who would support an elderly billionaire egomaniac . . . oh.
right now, the candidate we support is the rational progressive, amy klobuchar.
1
Biden tries to claim Obama's record, but few buy it based on his tepid performances to date. As Bill Gates said, "Biden was wrong on most every policy."
He shows neither the energy nor the intellect to do the job, and the Biden family record of enriching themselves while he was VP will weigh heavily against him.
5
I am so sick of the word "electability." Can we just ban it from here on out? The primary process (and our sanity!) would certainly be better off for it.
6
Trump won because he had a dozen fairly similar and uninspiring opponents and media over-indulged him for the ratings.
If the moderate candidates do not narrow their numbers after South Carolina they may end up with Bernie winning on a similar storyline. The MVP of the race may turn out to be Senator Warren for siphoning off enough votes from Bernie to make him lose.
L "Maximizing my chances of winning and too bad if this puts an extremist in office" is far too selfish a view for someone who thinks they have the mentality to be a good president.
I truly feel this election is different for me than any other in my memory. My moral compass says, “Vote for who you believe in!”, and that will constitute the major component of my choice. But I cannot DENY the nagging voice that is shouting to make sure there is not another term of the Presidency that I must endure with Donald Tump as the winner. Without a crystal ball, I want someone who can fight back DONALD TRUMP!
6
For decades now the left wing of the Democratic Party heard the same refrain from the moderate Democrats...
Who else are they going to vote for the Republican?
Well now the shoe just might be on the other foot.
So to all the moderates worrying about Sanders I ask who else are you going to vote for... Trump?
7
Eric Swalwell. He's proven himself adept throughout the hearings and a social justice advocate, well spoken, dedicated, a lawyer. Not this time, but hopefully next.
1
I was very sorry to see Swalwell drop out of the race.
I had hoped to avoid the inevitable media circus that the US Presidential Election procreates. It is amazing that after one poorly-managed Caucus and one primary, the media, including my favorite NYT are projecting who is "electable." I have NOTHING in common with the voters in Iowa and NH. Please take a step back and allow the candidates talk about the "how" not the "what." I've sat thru too many debates, news casts and the vitriol of talking heads. I want to hear from th candidate how to stop the right-leaning government, how to get realistic and reasonable legislation passed. How to shutdown the tyranny and gerry-mandering in the Senate led by McConnell. How to right the wrongs that the Trump administration is making on the environment (new rollbacks every month), trade, immigration, climate change, rebuilding crucial infrastructure and funding for young people to get an education. The "what" is not good enough. It costs a candidate a fortune to mount a campaign, and to be honest, I cannot articulate the differences between the candidates on the topics that mean the most to me. So, I am asking the media to get dirty. Please keep exposing the dirty politics the current administration is using to appoint judges, rollback environmental legislation, bold-faced lies (pick the topic), and please stop positioning on "who" is electable. That is for the voting public to decide. If we have 4 more years of Trump, the "United" States of America is finished as we know it.
8
I'm curious to see what happens in places like OH, FL, WI, MI, AZ, etc... IA and NH are not enough to really tell us anything. I already knew that Bernie was popular with Democrats in both of those states.
2
I didn't think Deval Patrick had a good chance this time around. But Mitch Landrieu had an excellent chance to be the nominee. But he chose not to run. Now he should be considered for the VP spot.
After 8 years of Obama, many, including white Democrats may not want to vote for a minority candidate. Nobody would say so, however.
I lay my faith in Pete Buttigieg. His performance in Nevada & SC will determine his chance of getting the nomination. I believe if he gets the nomination, he will beat Trump.
Since JFK, Mayor Pete is the most impressive, most gifted presidential hopeful. Bill Clinton was good. But like Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton had a tendency to say & do dumb things spontaneously.
1
The misplaced idealism of America's youth has morphed the election into a children's crusade. The President must exude the purity of a Jesus or at least a Sir Galahad. This is due to the innocence and naivety of the youth movement and due to an existential reflex to the toxic threat posed by Trump.
Just as the impeachment merely gladdened the base and worsened the situation on the ground, so the whole campaign is designed to reassure and uplift rather than win and save Democracy.
The pure is enemy to the good.
Wake up, Democrats- elections are not pep rallies- beating Trump ought to be a cinch- you are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
3
The issue not addressed in this piece is why Biden lost his lead in a race based more on who can beat Trump. Biden, through his son was attacked by Trump. His lack of forceful response, continuing forceful response over time, allowed voters to believe, come to the conclusion that he was not likely to withstand Trump attacks and was no longer someone who could beat Trump. Wouldn't have mattered who was running against Biden once voters became unsure that he could beat Trump.
Frank Shannon
5
The reluctance or inability of Democratic centrists to take a strong stand on much of anything aside from their own self-preservation is a gift to progressives and Bernie Sanders's candidacy. I say keep up the good work, centrists, as you shift yet again to a billionaire nominee known far and wide for his racism, misogyny, and strongman style.
3
Potential presidential candidates who are scared off by the seemingly destiny of another candidate are unlikely to have the drive and true desire to seek the nomination. Further, if they were scared off by Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden shame on them. Clinton proved herself to be poor campaigner, surrounded by sycophants who wouldn't, or couldn't, be objective about her flaws. I have long questioned Biden's skills as a candidate. His entry into presidential politics always seem to come up short. Perhaps he isn't underperforming, he just isn't a very goodcandidate. Is being elected senator from a state made up 3 counties, a population under 1 million and whose largest city is part of the Philadelphia media market much of track record?
3
Presidential campaigns already go on way too long and are way too expensive. We need to figure out a way to stop the nonstop madness, not prolong it
6
Wishful thinking and second guessing are valuable only from the standpoint of lessons learned.
2
I don't know if Biden is the problem, but I'm pretty sure he's not the solution.
12
I think one of the reasons many qualified people stayed out of the race is that they realised that the 2020 race was simply a continuation of the 2016 race. And no one wants to be involved in that mess. Of the present field only two are qualified to be president - Biden and Amy. Only one could beat Trump - Biden - and he will most probably drop out. Let it all flush out. Bernie won't run in 2024 and neither will Warren or Pete. Trump will be gone. Hopefully, in 2024 we will have a bunch of candidates who are qualified to be president and are electable.
1
What else did all these Democratic outsiders have in common? They appeared after the "reforms" of the Watergate era gutted the national parties. That, in turn, is why the current Democratic field is such an assortment of no-hopers.
Well organized parties think ahead. The Democrats are just a bunch of passengers waiting for their bus to show up.
5
All we have to do is win the electoral votes . Let the rest of the country vote already .
2
Can I just suggest that Warren remain in to the bitter end, if things go badly from here on. Fact is, Bernie could literally keel over at any time, and we need the backup.
6
So, lets consider: back when the declarations began, there were something like 24+ possible candidates to choose from. Did Biden really scare anyone off?
I do not especially like Bloomberg but perhaps he had it right to wait until the field had dropped down to a mere 7 other candidates...
Really, since when have there been so many democratic candidates? Which overreaction are you considering?
3
It would seem that a majority of my counterparts favor a populist again this cycle. Personally I am not a fan of magical thinking or populists so I cannot vote for either Trump or Bernie.
3
I fear that as long as the DNC refuses to back non-neoliberal candidates, we will lose.
4
You are correct DL.. My advice to people thinking about applying for any job...wondering whether they should apply or not... I just say "always apply...you have no decision to make until you're offered the position".
2
I have always wondered why the politicians who promised us that they were the champions of bipartisanship and cooperation, thus capable of uniting the whole country, are incapable of proving it right now on the campaign trail.
Why cannot they attract the other candidates to support them before the animosity escalates in all-out fight and dirty campaign ads?
Those truly faithful to the sacred principles implement the same both before and after the elections.
The great leaders don’t try to bring down their political opponents but promote the good ideas and principels and explain how those would benefit the entire country.
The personal attacks on a bunch of politicians cannot solve anything.
Those trying to get elected in order to prevent Trump from being reelected are wasting both own and our time because they just cannot understand the big picture and focus on the really important topics.
If they cannot understand that Trump is completely irrelevant from the global perspective, they cannot understand anything else either.
1
I'm no pundit, but I think that Steyer's surge in SC is related to the fact that he has hired two men who are descendants of well-known civil rights activists here. Personally, I like many of Steyer's ideas, though I am not convinced that he is the best candidate. Nonetheless, his attacks on Trump and long-running ads here can't hurt the Democratic cause. Meanwhile, each voter must choose based on what a person will do after beating Trump as well as the fact that Trump must go.
2
@Barbara While he had a successful business which made him a billionaire, his suggestion that minimum wage ought to be $22 says either he has no understanding of the economy outside his narrow area, or he's just another panderer.
Well, since the election is not limited to the coasts, I believe that Sanders still has no chance to beat the incumbent. And when I say "the coasts," I'm referring not only to Sanders' policies but maybe especially to his manner/style. He has an aggressive personality that polarizes and that repels too many people. If anyone thinks that Trump does not "bring people together," that is true even more of Sanders, i.m.o. Or should I say, he is perhaps the counterpart, on the Left, of Trump, but why should the country want two extremes? At least Amy does and Cory did bring people together.
Nevertheless, I agree in great part with the basic premise of the article: Quitting too soon is not necessary, and I wish Cory had stayed in the race. Obama's presidency has already proved that a black person can win and govern and be re-elected. I'm sure Cory saw that, but he also saw the cash he had left and worried about the cash ahead, which is why there ought to be a way better method of campaigning than purchasing, like Bloomberg, your visibility.
I do not think that Sanders is good for the country -- on many levels.
6
"I'm saying that the field could have been bigger and stronger"---what? Do you not understand bigger makes it weaker? Diluting support increases divisiveness, which carries over to weakening the whole effort, and thus you're empowering the single candidate on the other side who has consolidated support and blasts away the weak and scattered opposition.
There were about 2 dozen declared candidates. The ones who dropped out or were forced out were eliminated because their messages ( and the messenger) were not worthy of support, and that showed up and was measured and the current field is the result. All the candidates were given chances. Their platforms had many flaws, and couldn't garner support. Now they're gone. Simple democracy 1.0
4
“By now, the lesson from this history should be plain. If you want to be president of the United States and have an opportunity to run, you should not let another candidate keep you from running in the primaries.”
Bloomberg and Romney should have challenged Jeb Bush, and Warren and Biden should have challenged Hillary. Two weak, establishment endorsed candidates lead to the election of Donald Trump, disliked, like Clinton, by about 60% of the electorate.
This time around, the Democratic establishment has again tried to control the nomination by encouraging Biden to run, ignoring his age, history of gaffs, and, way too long after he agreed to run, his mental and physical weakness as shown in the debates and on the campaign trail.
Now the Democratic mainstream is desperately searching for a replacement, trying to elevate Kolobucher, a candidate like Gore and Kerry, who does not seem to generate enthusiasm.
By now, the lesson from this history should be plain. If you want to be president of the United States and have an opportunity to run, you should run, and the Democratic Party should let the process play out without trying to usurp it. GO BERNIE, ELIZABETH, MIKE, PETE AND AMY. Then let’s all get behind the nominee – that means both the Bernie supporters and the Democratic establishment.
7
Thanks, but a) I’m neither a Berniac nor an establishment guy, and b) I prefer to draw my historical lessons from history that actually happened.
1
Sure, Trump’s unlikeable, but in the end, most Americans will pull the lever for their immediate prosperity. A socialist candidate does not provide such reassurance.
8
@Allen Mills
Never mind the survival of civilization and the financial crash that is inevitable in a few short years. Republicans spend on their wealthy powerful supporters and take away from the rest of us.
The crash that's coming will be way worse than 2007-2008.
As to the planet, it bats 1000 and has the only seat at the table. It's providing lots of evidence which will only get worse.
Time for "most Americans" to wake up and stop letting the country be exploited and looted, poisoned and made violent for the "owners".
3
The very fact that Trump was elected in 2016 against the prediction of every pundit and poll tells us that we have no idea how things will turn out. Everyone seems to get confused between their own preferences and the probabilities of what might happen. Instead of all the punditry, the only relevant idea is that Trump must go to save our country, and we must guard against foreign and domestic interference in the 2020 election.
6
I feel like Dems should have been able to see the Biden implosion coming a long time ago. He has never been a strong presidential candidate. It seems like his strategy was to run on Obama's coattails and otherwise avoid controversy and conflict as much as possible. Didn't work. Kamala Harris hit him in the glass jaw and state of Mr. Biden started to become clearer to voters. The Hunter Biden story and the impeachment were harmful to Biden.
A stronger candidate might somehow recover from this - and maybe he will if he can win South Carolina and at least perform strongly in Nevada. It's not completely too late, but it's late. Anyway, yes, other moderates should have seen this whole scenario as likely and come into the race. Bloomberg did. Maybe party decorum kept others out; there was deference to Joe. However, there ARE two or three moderates in the race now so let's not overlook them. They campaigned hard and hung in there and now they're on top of the moderate pole.
1
Well, at least one thing is certain in 2020. The Democratic nominee is certain to go to Wisconsin this year. The Convention is in Milwaukee.
5
@William Colgan
As Mike has told us, farming and factory work don't really require grey matter. The Dems are caving to pure political expediency in going to Wisconsin.
I blame the media. For months Biden was leading the polls but it was just name recognition. He led among African Americans because he was Obama's VP. The public had not heard about the other candidates except Bernie. Yet all the media talked about was Biden the "front runner". After NH the media headlined Bernie as the "winner" but he barely got a plurality of the vote and his share was lower than it was in 2016. Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar were very close to Bernie but he got most of the coverage as "winner." House Democrats persuaded Pelosi against her better judgement to initiate impeachment hearings that took away the spotlight from the candidates. Then, Pelosi did her part to delay the Senate trial until after the holidays. During the time prior to Iowa the Senators in the race had to sit in the Senate chamber paying attention to a trial whose result was a foregone conclusion.
5
The media was just echoing the polls which provided easyily quantifiable, albeit misleading stories for the media. We had to wait for people to start making actual choices to learn candidates’ real strength. If there is a lesson here it is watch the fundraising rather than the polls. It showed the grass roots energy of Bernie and Pete and Biden’s lack thereof. It also showed that the big donors sensed Biden’s weakness.
3
I disagree with the writer.
The voters of America may have become addicted to Trump's daily/weekly/quarterly traumas which he inflicts upon them, and others, worldwide.
In that respect, the boring, non-traumatizing, not exciting democratic (even the Republicans who are trying a little to get some traction) Presidential candidates, seem a bit doomed, when thinking about the history of Presidential races.
The victories of Republicans Presidential candidates is not based on the facts about when they got into the, so much as the Democratic opponents/rivals who were not exciting enough to capture the voter's imagination.
John Kerry, Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter and to some extent Hillary Clinton were all in some way not very exciting.
But Bill Clinton had juice - he was a bit intriguing, and therefore maybe, somewhat exciting. He was getting away with something.
Same with Trump. A bad guy. That's why Wall Street went crazy after his election, because Wall Street identifies with Trump's lack of ethics, not fiscal orientation (which he lacks).
A political analyst has stated that Bloomberg is the person to get into a "knife fight" with Trump over the Presidency. It might happen.
Bloomberg is not a John Kerry, Walter Mondale, or Jimmy Carter. I fear if Buttigiege or Klobuchar get the Presidential Democratic nomination, they will not win, and it won't be because of when they entered the race.
3
We have two debates before Super Tuesday. Maybe it would be prudent to wait until March 4th to hone our predictions.
My biggest worry right now is: what will Dems do if Bernie were to win the nomination, then have a massive coronary event during the campaign against Trump, or after he somehow pulls off a big win for the Presidency? He's 78 and just had a heart attack. This is a very real possibility and everyone should be worried about it. I don't want a Dem President who won't last 8 years, because Dems will need 8 years to fix the damage Republicans have done to America.
7
Focus on the prize: Get Trump out of office. The swing voters in a few states are the key. For whom they vote will determine the outcome.
Meanwhile, get the Dark Money and the Russians out of American politics.
9
I mean, this is interesting, but political journalists also need to grapple with their impact on narrative setting when it comes to early front runners and perceived electability.
9
The only issue is ousting DT. Bloomberg, with all his faults, is the best person to beat DT. It is unusual how he came in late, but he came in late because Biden has faltered. Bloomberg is honest, smart, sane and tough. He has good judgment and leadership skills. He is hard-working. He is not beholding to anyone. And, he is very funny...
8
@EM
If you truly believe that Bloomberg is the best person to beat Trump, then your only real problem with Trump is that he's the leader of the Republican party instead of the Democrat.
Campaigns never "end", they run out of money. Joe will stay in the race as long as he has resources.
But what Joe does isn't important. November 2020 will be about one issue: Trump vs. Anyone-other-than-Trump.
5
@Fred for many of us, yes, this is true. But for some moderates in both parties it could also be about anyone but a socialist.
3
@Numa
As in 2016, moderation is the key in guaranteeing Trump another 4 yrs. mainly because, the moderate candidate will do little or nothing to deal with the "neglected" important issues that got Trump elected in the first place and to prevent someone like him from emerging in the future.
If the nominee, democrats and their choice for a corporate/moderate centrist candidate(again) this time around will, no doubt, ultimately eviscerate the party.
2
Joe is very close to running out of money. If he loses in SC he’ll be broke.
1
Sure, it's a shame those people didn't run in the past or now or have altered their campaigns to suit. However, given that they did, perhaps they also were not suited to the office. It takes a certain amount of ego and risk-taking to run the presidency--we can see that as a positive or negative, but it's undeniable.
In short, I think you're looking at a symptom and seeing a cause--it's the other way around.
1
I agree that it's "silly" to say Sanders has no chance to beat Trump. In fact, at this early stage of the race I think it's silly to many ANY predictions, either about the Democratic nominee or the outcome of the election.
Consider this example: In 1976 Gerald Ford, the sitting president, easily won the initial batch of GOP primaries, and everyone wrote off his opponent, Ronald Reagan. Then Reagan won decisively in North Carolina, went on to split the remaining primaries with Ford, and very nearly became the nominee.
Another example: At this time 4 years ago, who thought Donald Trump would be president?
To paraphrase the great philosopher Yogi Berra, "In presidential elections, you don't know nothing."
3
Swalwell, Bennet, Hickenlooper, Delaney, Patrick, Booker, Harris, Biden didn't scare anybody off and this list of corporate/establishment centrists candidates whom have either dropped out or failed to register with the electorate confirms it.
I guess the MSM and establishment chose not to take into account Biden's history of starting out strong and then fizzling out when the real voting started. Once again, to repeat the mistakes of 2016 when the so-called experts thought all the democrats needed to beat Trump was a "safe" well known moderate/centrist candidate, however, like before,it would seem, this time around the voters believe otherwise.
4
From what I've read, Michael Bloomberg was content with a moderate Biden presidency, and all the pundits and polls were showing Biden could win. Bloomberg stepped into the race when it became apparent Biden might not win after all. He's running because he knows a candidate that's too far left is not going to win against Trump. He wasn't "afraid" to run against Biden.
13
My biggest concern about the next election is "if we win, can we recover from the damage done by the last president fast enough to restore our democracy". For that reason, the "older" candidates (especially Sanders who just had a heart attack), be up to the huge job of thoughtful and quick restoration. The large number of judges appointed by this administration including the Supreme Court, could make this recovery very challenging.
2
The press needs to find a way to cover all candidates equally. I know the news is now mostly entertainment but the result was President Trump in 2016 and up until now a very confused primary election without the strongest candidates. There needs to be a platform where the candidates can be heard equally not based on entertainment value. And the party needs debates that expose all the candidates equally.
7
As David Plouffe recently reminded us, Bernie had an 8 point lead over Trump, just as he has now, and pretty much has had for the past year. That’s higher than Hillary’s was. And Bernie beat Trump soundly in the crucial Rust Belt exit polls in 2016, too. If Hillary had not conned the black primary voters into thinking Bernie was “too white,” when his civil rights record was actually spotless, the Dems would not have stupidly nominated the most despised nominee of my 76-year lifetime, and Bernie would be president today. No matter how much money Bloomberg throws at Bernie, there is no way he’ll beat him in the primaries, and if Dems try to steal the nomination from Bernie, they’ll have no chance to take back the Rust Belt and beat Trump, which may be what Wall St. and the Republican Bloomberg have wanted all along. Since when, by the way, has it been less disqualifying in the Democratic Party to be a Republican than a social democrat like Bernie? What’s wrong with that picture?
10
@Fred White: Sanders only registers as a Democrat when he wants to run for the presidency. He's 78 years old with a heart attack under his belt. What is wrong with that picture? Much as I want the USA to adopt more Social Democratic policies on health care, education, climate change and gun control (the latter not exactly Sanders' strong point), who will succeed Sanders if he has a second fatal heart attack while in office, to carry out his plans? How will Sanders work with an at best moderate House and Senate, and quite possibly moderate House and obstructionist Republican-led Senate? I'd vote for Sanders in a heartbeat if he'd be the one against Trump, but the same holds for Bloomberg or any other of the Democratic contenders. Or a ham sandwich for that matter.
11
@Fred White
Although we have seen the MSM and those that are pre-occupied with collecting corporate/super pac dollars(democratic establishment), they continue to fail to recognize the amount and the breadth of where Bernie Sanders is receiving his campaign funds primarily because, in the end, he doesn't have to "get in line".
I am still amazed at the contradictions in the thought process of so many Americans who, while they scream "from the hilltops" about the excess money and corruption in the U. S. political system and the fact that their representatives are NOT listening to them, some are still willing to criticize and marginilize, Bernie Sanders, one of the very few high profile "uncorrupted" politicians left in America who actually has policy ideas and is fully committed in attempting to implement them.
5
@Anna
The only REAL way to defeat Trump is to offer a a REAL alternative. The fact remains that NO corporate/establishment candidate(especially Bloomberg) will be committed to dealing with the issues(and their decades of neglect)that got Donald Trump elected in the first place. I am also quite sure that Bernie Sanders will put in place younger, committed people like himself to take the reigns should he incur health issues. In 2020, Trump will be 74 yrs. old and from what I have seen in pictures and his rather large girth along with his lack of sleep "tweeting', health wise, I would put my money on Bernie any day.
Sanders is the only candidate in place, unencumbered by the intense pressure of lobbyist influence and their money, all done to maintain the "status quo" that is committed to actual change in the direction of America and its potential to plunge into a
Of course, it will be difficult to deal with "bribed' politicians in both houses, however, the pressures that he can bring to bear with his grass roots movement will move the needle as in any other previous significant changes in America such as civil rights, women's right to vote and the formation of unions for better working conditions which were all implemented by the "ground up" actions of millions of regular people.
6
Good point about Mccain in 2008. He was flying commercial without any staff for a while there.
There is also the Bill Clinton example. In 92 all the First Team Dems stayed out because they thought Bush 1 was unbeatable.
The rest is History.
1
For me Pete is #1, Corey was #2. Ohio has not voted yet. I have not been polled and I am not answering my phone because more often than not, someone is "wanting to buy my house"! I wish we were rank ordering our primary vote so that there would be a more accurate consensus of how well each candidate was doing. Maybe Corey would have stuck it out if he was lots of people's second choice. NeverthelessI would vote for my ex husband if he were running against Trump.
9
US election campaigns are already prohibitively expensive and extremely long. We really should be spending our time and money doing the actual work of improving the lives of Americans rather than campaigning for years before an election. Most Americans were surprised to see 20+ candidates in the race just a few months ago. And we still have a sizeable group, although sadly, not very diverse. So, I don't think Biden scared anyone off, but yes, some people had to throw in the towel because they could not afford to continue. That is the problem with this system.
7
The wild card is in play here. Clearly what happens in Nevada will not stay in Nevada and will influence many voters in South Carolina.
What is exciting about this race is that the bench is deep for the next wave of Democratic leaders. Many of the candidates could be part of the next Democratic Administration, and rightly so.
I think voters need to and do understand that. Granted when Obama first won he brought in all the Clinton cronies so there was no real ' Hope and Change."
The process will play out and who knows that even after Super Tuesday it still might be still close to call. That will be good for the process and season the final candidate to be able to deal with anything Trump may try to pile on.
For now let the President enjoy his cake walk and fly overs as the real fight of his political life has not even begun yet.
4
@#OWS veteran
NV will not influence SC. Sc is the first stated with a major black voter presence and they are going to want to make a statement. They will too.
I think you can make a better case that this happened in 2016 when the field cleared for HRC. In 2020? It's hard to say that so many took a pass when this has been a record-wide field. Even now, after IA and NH, there is an atypically large number of candidates who have a plausible chance.
2
As usual, Mr. Leonhardt’s observations are perceptive. The primary process is overlong and uncertain. Absolutely no one predicted a Trump nomination, let alone victory, at the start of the 2016 race.
I’d hope however that it was not Biden’s presence that scared off those other candidates. From the beginning, it was obvious that he had lost a few feet off his fastball, and he was never strong enough to win the nomination even at his best. In this era of hyper-polarization and going straight to the voters with your message, thoughts of “it’s his turn” are totally irrelevant.
The media also overemphasizes early voting results in small states. It is not too late for either Bloomberg or Klobuchar. Personally I would rate them first and second in terms of ability to beat Trump - although it’s impossible to know for sure.
5
Some truth here for me. I was for Kamala Harris until she dropped out. Would still like to see how she would do in South
Carolina. Currently, I'm with Amy. I don't like Bernie's angry face and Clinton was right that he hasn't been that effective in the Senate. What would he get done? Warren should be part of a Democratic administration, but Amy has a point that the Mid-West is where Trump won, while losing the popular vote. Who else is tired of the racist-based, East Coast dominant Electoral College. Two senators for nation-sized California? Come on man!
6
@Jim You can complain about the EC all you want, but the EC will be with us forever An amendment to the constitution is needed to do what you want 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states That’s 37 states!!! You wouldn’t get more than 15 by any reasonable count
The DNC is essentially doing nothing while they await the outcome of the primaries - then they will hope the candidate will have a strong campaign organization. Obama had a very good organization, but Kerry, Gore, and Clinton were weak candidates and had lousy campaign organizations. The DNC should have a marketing team going after Trump and the GOP - months ago. They are not marketers or clever.
3
If you look at the issues that drove Democrats to victory in 2018, and where the Democrats picked up seats, I cannot fathom the dismissal of fracking and healthcare as drags on Bernie.
However unpredictable “elections” may be the numbers and dynamics of the electorate in critical swing states aren’t much.
Carter won after Ford pardoned Nixon. Reagan won because he was a better actor than Bush. Clinton won when Ross Perot split the Republican vote. Can’t pretend those dynamics didn’t matter.
5
@Citizen60 Good points, and lest not forget McCain was 10+ in the polls prior to Lehman and stock market capitulation. Those dynamics were totally consequential.
4
I think such a dissection of the democratic process to choose a presidential candidate is plain gamble with the minds of the readers. Well, I think basically all the candidates want the same: a more and better safety net for all Americans. Also a more equal America. Non of them is a "socialist" in the sense of the old communists our country knows from the cold war. All of them relay on views of the more social democracies from Europe and Canada.This is not bad its good. There will be no perfect country, but the path we on now is the path of destruction a rich country to a oligarchy and people in modern slavery (paid but without basic access to their well being and any rights). So there is only one choice for the democratic voters: Unite behind the winner of the primaries, over come you personal preference and go out and vote! Do not sit at home and skip this election.
6
We will not know who has a chance to beat Trump until the candidate has been chosen and the polls compare them one on one. No candidate will sound authentic before anyway, since the tactics are governed by maneuvering around their Democratic competitors.
Right now, there are too many hypotheticals to consider to allow voters to honestly determine how they will vote. One should not underestimate the probability that some would prefer Trump to be gone, but won't go to the polls, because they are being turned off by the Democratic candidate. Warren would have that effect on a lot of moderates, so would be Sanders.
I like Sanders a lot, because he does come over as genuine and human, but I don't think he is a viable candidate. His life expectancy is compromised and the last thing we want is a candidate having another debilitating heart attack the week before the election. Trump would win by default.
Bernie should withdraw now, for the good of the country.
2
Biden, whose biggest claims to fame are being Obama's Vice President, voting for the Iraq war, giving Anita Hill a hard time for accusing Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment and smelling women's hair, probably discouraged no one from running.
It was clear from the outset that he had no plan for how he would govern America. He garbled his responses to debate questions, and now, at his town halls, he gets defensive and cranky. When asked what his environmental policy is, he says, "oh, go vote for another candidate!".
It's doubtful state voting order would have made a difference in Biden's weak showing.
Candidates because they didn't have enough voter support or donations.
Sanders is polling ahead of the pack. He has an army of supporters and a war chest, and is not beholden to corporations.
Rather than make the words "Democratic Socialist" seem scary, the DNC and the media should be explaining that it's the kind of government in Canada and the E.U. that Americans envy.
11
We need to stop thinking about political parties altogether and instead think about the men and women running as individuals and what they stand for. Forget "lessons" and dicey odds. Vote for the person you view as a positive symbol for our country and its future health.
2
Frankly, I read what the columnists write about the various candidates but do not put too much stock in their various opinions and interpretations (sorry Mr. Leonhardt, no offense).
I mean almost a month ago, the NYT Editorial Board endorsed Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. While Senator Kolbuchar has been making surprising progress, Senator Warren is slowly dying on the vine.
Articles like this one provide a interesting road map, but what's key for me is to push the gobbledygook aside and focus strictly on what and where the candidate stands on issues like global warming, healthcare, Social Security and Medicare programs. After all, I would hope this information would be paramount in the minds of the voter.
All I know is that Trump needs to go. And there is still a long road ahead before November 3rd.
The goal of every presidential candidate is to beat whoever is presently residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. That's a given. I just hope whoever that candidate is will be more inclined to my values AND be able to defeat Trump.
5
@Marge Keller
If it's a road map, it covers where we've been, not where we're going.
DL's hind sight is perfect. But then, most people's is equally impressive.
2
@Laurence Bachmann
I agree that his hindsight IS excellent. While it's an important and useful tool for the past, the unknown future is really anyone's guess.
1
The dems will run a moderate and Trump will win. Just like last time. It's not that they have scared away the next president, they have assured Trumps victory. I didn't see any winners in those that have dropped out. By that I don't mean they would not have been a good president, because several would have made good presidents, but they will never come through the DFL who is just as sold out to corporate interests as the republicans. Moderate democrats aren't even liberal, they are conservatives. They are Reaganites without as much racism.
7
Biden seems too feeble; Buttigieg is too inexperienced; Warren is too far to the left (I mean, come on - free healthcare for illegal immigrants and halting all fracking???) Sanders has serious health issues; Klobuchar is uninspiring and bland. Do you see any of these candidates making a chance to to beat Trump? NO way. He will eat them for breakfast. I actually see Bloomberg as the best chance we have, because he is a good debater and will have appeal for the centrist voters who decide elections. But he ALSO is too old and is carrying some serious baggage dragging him down. Now don't take me wrong - even if the Democrats will have a horse running against trump, I myself will vote for that horse. But the reality? We have NO ONE who can beat trump. And the Democrats should be ASHAMED of themselves (Tom Perez, anyone?) for doing such a deplorable job of dethroning the horror-king. trump Won't win in 2020. Instead; the Democrats will lose. There is a big difference there.
1
@TermlimitsNow get sherrod brown and michelle obama to be a democratic ticket and they might beat trump.....otherwise i can't see any democrat getting enough support to send the donald packing
It was the media that over reacted/lied about the strength of a Biden Candidacy. Labeling him the front runner even before he became a candidate. Branding him the one and only Trump slayer. That is why other potential good candidates did not and probably could not get into the race. Biden's performance has been laughably disappointing. But if the media was honest it would be pointed out that this is pretty much how Biden has always performed in Presidential primaries. He is not as interesting or likable without Barack Obama standing right next to him. The establishment media is making the same mistake with Bloomberg portraying him as the inevitable Trump slaying nominee. After all he is in first place in all those polls he is personally paying for....Right?! What an amazing performance by a mega rich billionaire who has yet to compete in any Primary or be on the stage at any debate. Every day more information slowly drips out about all the odious things the brand new Trump slayer said or did. But Bloomberg is our new Knight in shining armor Right?!!.....Only in America.
9
Staring us in this present moment is Trump leading an absolutely corrupt republican government, which is trying to do away with any semblance of justice for all. A Supreme Court lead by a weak Chief Justice who is responsible for destroying the idea that America stands for fairness, honesty and believes in the rule of law as defined by the constitution. We as voters must vote with an eye to the present, not vote for what was or what maybe. We must vote for what we know we can accomplish. And the only reason, must be, to overthrow this administration and republican senators in every state. Voters must not waste time cajoling stubborn, foolish and greedy republican voters. Instead they must ensure they energize the Democratic voters into exercising their votes. The candidates are all strong but too many. Subtract Biden, he is clearly awful. The rest of them will be judged by their choice of VP. The Democrats election choice is clear, we will not be voting for the President, but for who their VP will be.
3
@Meena This is a very strange analysis. "Judged by their choice of VP?" It doesn't follow from anything you said up to that point, with which I'm in agreement. In my own opinion, I can't understand why anybody attaches any significance at all to the hazy concepts of "balancing the ticket" or anything else related to the office of VP.
It is madness to start these races so early. It does put a lot of good possibilities into enough debt that they pull out.
4
You think a field of 25 candidates isn't enough?
2
@Felty not if they are the wrong..and weak....25
Yes. The panic setting in so early in the process is not necessary and is not helping.
Argue for your candidate. See what the results of the primaries are. Then coalesce around the candidate with the most votes. It takes a few months.
(And certainly don't let a Republican billionaire hijack the Democratic Party nomination. That is the biggest and most unforgivable sucker move the DNC could possibly make.)
One of the candidates that has been following the rules and participating in the debates will win the primaries and beat Trump. Don't let corporate media create fake controversies.
As it says on the cover of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe,
Don't Panic!
4
Our next President is not scared, in fact he's leading heading into Nevada, which he will win, and right after he will win nicely in South Carolina, and thereafter on super Tuesday he will simply keep on winning, giving the Republican-Lite Pelosi Schumer Biden democrats agita the likes of which they never encountered.
I just love these NY Times hit pieces, all of which either ignore the front runner Bernie Sanders, or seek to create fear of him.
Keep it up, please, because every time these hit pieces come out, Bernies' support surges even more.
The electorate knows the game now, the disenfranchisement of the poor and the middle-class game, and they are not having any more of it.
The Republican-Lite Pelosi Schumer Biden democrats, and their mainstream media mouthpieces are unwittingly helping our modern-day FDR, Bernie Sanders become our 46th President.
8
I do not believe it is at all silly to believe that a very number of voters would not vote for a self-proclaimed socialist.
3
@Robert Martin Why is your belief stronger than the data, linked to in this piece, that shows quite the opposite? Young people aren't scared of socialism... and we're not so young anymore. If you're going to try to read other people's minds, start by listening to what they say.
1
Bloomberg is not a Democrat. He just plays one on TV sometimes.
9
Reality has to set VP Joe Biden will better Pres. Donald Trump of the facts are there he's not good enough to take on Pres. Donald Trump already on Ukraine oil company where his son was on the board the Republican Party won't let this go they'll continue this fight end he should Iran 4 years ago he would've been better than Hillary Clinton any day of the week she lost and we receive Pres. Donald Trump the worst president since Pres. George Washington but the Republican Party is fully backing him which is totally insane from the house of Representatives to the Senate all the Republicans members were scared of Pres. Donald Trump is sad that you can't get our leaders to confront this awful president and his dirty deeds.
There are only 2 scenarios I can put out for us as American people he will not give up the presidency or after he lose on November 3, 2020, he goes into exile to another country like Russia. Goodbye Joe and say hi to Mike Bloomberg he can beat the pants off Pres. Donald Trump .
"Imagine what this race might look like if other candidates had not taken a pass,"
Serously?
Who took a pass???
Not long ago there were 24 Democrats in the race for the Presidential nomination.
You are saying there should have been more?
C'mon man.
5
I could see a ticket of Biden, Klobuchar. The others would make great cabinet members. I want someone who will ask Trump to take off his shoes and socks during a debate to show us his bone spurs.
2
Why does anyone want to run for President? I don’t get it.
Why not mention that Donald Trump's campaign against Joe Biden ultimately was effective? Biden's name is now associated with corruption and Ukraine.
5
I still wish Obama had waited. If he had waited and Hillary won, Obama would be president now.
4
Clearly...Klobuchar is the candidate capable of bring the entire party together. Biden is like an old worn tire. You can drive on it but it's eventually going to go flat or the horn will just start hoking. Sanders scares me and I'm about as progressive as they come. Warren is all charts, graphs, white papers and plans,...but no humor. Mayor Pete is whip smart but he has one major liability...his age. Bloomberg? The minute the rumors started circulating that he has picked HRC as his running mate? I thought about the short term benefits of seppuku. So, I'm back to Amy.
2
@Harley Leiber
Read one of Senator Warren's books. She is warm and funny as well as wise and fair. She is a capitalist with principles and priorities, not a crazy left-wing socialist.
2
This race is mired in uncertainty because of the truth no one wants to speak. The main stream media and the master tactician Nancy Pelosi’s shampeachment unwittingly put Joe and Hunter Biden on the main stage in a bad light; the Bidens’ questionable conduct in the Ukraine, is at the back of every American’s mind, and puts them in the sphere of Washington swampishness. No Democrat wants a candidate with this taint, if they can avoid it. And with Sanders, Klobuchar etc., they can avoid the taint. It is sad that Joe Biden’s candidacy was ruined by friendly fire of those who don’t want to admit their colossal error.
3
I truly wish Senator Kamala Harris was still in the race. South Carolina would have been hers!
1
Imagine if David Leonhardt hadn't treated the most qualified candidate in the race, Elizabeth Warren, to a mention in this piece that didn't suggest she was no longer a candidate. Imagine if he had actually looked at her seriously!
3
Actually, having your life examined under a public media microscope scares away the most qualified from any political party. Kurt Schmoke, former Baltimore Mayor, current president of the University of Baltimore, and former Dean of the Howard University School of Law was so disgusted that he left political life for academia. The Baltimore Sun had turned on him like a bad dog for not toting their political agenda. Eminently qualified, he could have easily become the first African-American Senator from Maryland. I believe he made a wise choice for both himself and his family. He's now a respected academician and the Baltimore Sun has devolved into a 3rd tier tabloid.
If center-right Democrats had a neck for winning, they would know that Biden is finished. Why support a candidate for President that can't track a conversation, never mind form a coherent sentence? Is he really up for the demands of the job? Me thinketh not. Like conservatives - the ones Dems like to harp on - this breed of Democrat puts loyalty to a candidate over facts, reason and country. Over winning the oval and more importantly over winning anything down ticket and state houses. Like Biden can't track a conversation, they can't track the mood of the country and changing times. These Dems can't hack it at the ticket building, they gave us - in fact - the cretin in the WH and all that came with that package deal. That is the hand we have. The party needs leadership that doesn't busy itself with protecting the establishment (the Clintons of the party) but is forward thinking, actually cares for the concerns of blue-collar people - you know, their former constituency, and acts and fights accordingly.
6
If the Dems need any evidence of where this election will be decided, they only need to watch a replay of the Trump pageant that was yesterday's Daytona 500. Never a fan of the Kennedys (any of them), I have to give Senator Edward Kennedy credit for the best piece of political advice I ever heard: "The perfect is the enemy of the good". Dems should take heed and stop their internecine war and focus on the prize of removing the most vile, ignorant, corrupt president this country has ever known.
5
David Leonhardt, I cannot keep receiving your opinion newsletter anymore and will discontinue reading your opinion pieces generally. They seem to be less and less rational and more “head in the sand” in terms of Progressive political realities. I am always open to differing opinions, but you have been writing contrary pieces for so long I question both your perspective and your motives. I will continue to subscribe to the Times, but am growing concerned about the messaging in regards to Pro-Corporate Democrat nominees. If Michael Bloomberg turns quickly, you may break your nose right off...
5
Mr. Bloomberg is first and foremost a Bloombertian, as Trump is a Trumpian. They will always do what is best for them not the country or the rest of us.
My real question: Where is Senator Warren? Has she been kidnapped by aliens; dropped out of the race; moved to New Zealand?
As if by some silent pact she seems to have become personal non grata in the press and I'm left wondering why. True, I don't watch TV and get my news from the Times, WAPO and BBC, but would expect to see some some throw away comment about her, but can't find one. If I missed it, I apologize.
This primary season reinforces the clear need for serious campaign reform legislation.
The only group that truly benefits from the year long hype fest is the media---billions of dollars of benefit.
I'd like to have reform raised as an issue in a debate, and soon.
3
Please let’s cut the election cycle on half.
2
When he announced his run for the presidency, Joe Biden was a caricature right out of central casting. His handlers told him to wear a neatly pressed blue stripe shirt; blue sport coat; and aviator sunglasses. He already had beautiful dental work and hair plugs. Immaculate. Then on the campaign trail, he challenges an 80 year old man to a push-up contest and calls a female college student a “lying dog-face pony soldier” because they had the audacity to ask him the wrong questions. Someone should have taken Joe Biden aside, thanked him for his decades of service in government, and told him its time for others to lead America. That would have been the polite thing to do.
10
There is another lesson that is being ignored - why can't the DNC Elite pick a winner over the last 40 years - They backed Biden, Hillary, Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale - and ignored and belittled Obama, Clinton, Carter.
The most recent - the Hillary nomination - was especially delusional. That she was beaten by a freshman Senator in 2008, and was given a run by a 75 year old earnest Socialist should have been indicative that a smarmy NYC vulgarian will eat her lunch.
That no one is looking at the mirror on this failure is indicative of the multi-generational delusion (Mondadle '84!). Instead the DNC is blaming the Russians (3rd world country) and goofus Roger Stone for the loss.
5
Here's a suggestion, fire Tom Perez and put someone else in charge of the DNC who actually knows what he's doing. Like James Carville.
5
So we needed a bigger field? Hmmmm...no.
1
Definitely. There were only, what, 23 candidates for the Democratic Party nomination for president. Give me a break. This is beyond ridiculous.
3
#metoo's hair should be on fire. He traumatized a generation of young black men in NY. He blames the black community instead of the bankers' greed. He has always opposed increases to the minimum wage.
Anyone with a perspective of the Democratic Party and race that includes this Republican imposter in his calculation of who is going to or could have won is clearly not understanding what the Progressive wing of the party is trying to say to you and the rest of the Democratic/corporate establishment. One might do well to pay heed.
5
Wow. Just what the Dems need right about now--more long shot candidates. Thanks, Dave.
2
I can only assume that this period in time is rather a slow news era. Otherwise the MSM would have something else to talk about. That is particularly true of the opinion writers.
Listen, you have parsed this election run up every which way. Give us readers a break and talk about something else...war, peace, potholes, anything.
3
Definitely. There were only, what, 23 candidates for the Democratic Party nomination for president. Give me a break. This is beyond ridiculous.
3
The problem lies with the American people. They place no value on experience. They are like high school kids, making elections a popularity contest. Even the debates are shallow word contests. That's why people like Reagan, Clinton, Carter, and Obama come from nowhere to be president. It's a charisma game, a weakness of democracy. Then these "charismats" have to be escorted through Washington by people who really know what they are doing.
4
If all the world were apple pie.... Let's get back to reality, now, folks.
If you are scared of Joe Biden you shouldn't leave your house, let alone run for president.
4
Here's the new Democratic Slogan: "Two snorkels in every home by 2030!" (BTW: The elephant, used by the GOP, will need replacing once all of the real ones are dead -- which might happen before a different president is elected!)
1
Elizabeth Warren hasn't dropped out and she could still pull a McCain
2
Biden remains the candidate to beat. Trump was right to fear him because Biden would certainly beat Trump. While Trump has a base he can count on, Trump remains the most unpopular president in memory for the majority of voters.
Trump was so desperate that he authorized Giuliani to do really stupid stuff in Ukraine to destroy Biden's candidacy before he is nominated. Once nominated with the right running mate Trump could not stop Biden.
The blizzard of negative news and slime that followed the revelations about Trump's scheme with Ukraine no doubt have slowed Biden down. It would be tragic if the Democrat Party allowed Trump to destroy Biden's candidacy with a pack of lies.
1
Seriously? There were only, what, 23 candidates for the Democratic Party nomination for president. Give me a break. This is beyond ridiculous
1
We don't need a moderate or another billionaire who talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk. We need a realist, a progressive, who understands this stock market isn't a reflection on the economic status of the majority of Americans. We need to shutdown the Republicans in all State and Federal elections, they have poisoned the country with their stupidity, manipulation, lies and ignorance which has been on painful display especially the last 4 years.
5
I don’t know a whole lot about Bloomberg, but I do know a few things. I note that he took over the disastrous NewYork City schools, abolished social promotion and demanded discipline and quality teaching. Today the city has every reason to take pride in the city schools, thanks to Bloomberg. I listened now to a number of black leaders who say about Stop and Frisk, while they don’t like it all, is, “that was then, this is now,” in response to reporters who are breathless at the idea they might “have something “ on Bloomberg.
And apparently the worst thing they can think of is,”he’s buying the election.” I find that a really cheap, whiny argument. How dare he be rich!? There is nothing but jealousy in this attack, no content at all. I guess you think Bloomberg is as bad as Trump. And Trump loves it. He doesn’t have to lift a finger. And of course you’ll gasp in horror when Trump gets a second term, right?
4
We are in the throes of an unrelenting social purity movement that is completely unforgiving, a movement that ignores historical context, a movement that is cancels understanding in favor of vindictiveness, a movement that establishes purity tests that almost no human can pass, a movement that would find fault in Jesus Christ himself. Way too many people casting stones in their glass houses. #forgivenobody
4
FYI, fracking is toxic. Health care is outrageously expensive and out of reach for many. It amazes me that anyone would attack FDR Democrat Bernie Sanders for trying to save the country. Amazing really. People in Europe and Canada must think we are complete barbarians.
8
umm, pretty sure trump is already our next president.
1
Sherrod Brown. Why didn’t he run?
@John Ranta YES YES YES.....sherrod should have run.....we need to call him and offer him lots of cash to run......or just make him listen to reason.....he seems like he would be a most sensible choice....come on democrats.....find a way to get him into the race
I am so sick and tired of The Times' boosterism for conservative Democrats, and their sliming of Bernie Sanders.
Landrieu would never get nominated. Nor will Bloomberg.
Bernie Sanders will be our next president. The Times should get used to the idea.
7
"Did Biden Scare Off Our Next President?" That is a very strange question as until recently Biden was considered THE presidential candidate. What is it with you extreme liberals that you can't leave well enough alone?
David, I believe you neglected to mention Sherrod Brown?
It would be helpful next time if you share this wisdom BEFORE they all shut down, not after.
Hind sight is 20/20.
1
"Did Biden scare off our next president?" ....... No, Bernie is still here.
6
There is something seriously wrong with black voters, as a group. It is bad enough that they still like Obama, even though he opposed their class interests. It shows real ignorance for Southern blacks to favor Biden, who was a major proponent of racist mass incarceration. It is absolutely shocking that Bloomberg could be in second place among black voters nationwide, after his support for redlining and racist persecution under “stop and frisk” in NYC.
I am aware that some black people and maybe others might feel that as a nonblack person I have no right to criticize black people. I think such an attitude would be racist and despicable. The right to express oneself should have nothing to do with one’s race.
4
Biden didn't "scare" anyone off.
The media chose Biden.
Now the media is choosing Bloomberg.
2
If our next president is scared of Joe Biden, he or she doesn't have what it takes to be President of the United States. The last thing we need is another thin-skinned coward in the Oval Office. We need someone of courage and character.
2
This describes Hillary. The Dems put their eggs into one basket, and now we've had nothing but chaos and corruption.
2
Like most pundits, you don’t seem to consider the negative impact on Biden’s campaign of the noise about Hunter Biden’s work in the Ukraine. It’s eerily reminiscent of the supposed, but nonexistent “dirt” on Hillary Clinton.
2
The reason why the Democrats cannot decide who would win against Trump is that they are listening to the Democratic candidates instead of listening to Trump. The one candidate Trump has not attacked but has allowed to prosper through the primaries is Bernie Sanders. He went after Biden --hammer and tongs, he is now going after Bloomberg. But when it comes to Bernie Trump puts paranoid ideas into the heads of Bernie supporters to get them inflamed and energized. Trump is the one who said that Pelosi (think 'the Democrat establishment') deliberately delayed sending over the articles of impeachment to the Senate so that Democratic Senators would be drawn away from the campaign in Iowa leaving Biden to campaign there and get an edge on his rivals while the Senate trial was on. Now why would Trump say that! Trump is trying to pick the person he runs against. Trump wants to run against a person who he can beat with white rural males in key counties in the battleground states. These handful of counties will decide the Presidential race in Nov 2020. That man is surely not a self-proclaimed socialist. It used to be good ole Joe - the comfort factor. Issues can be twisted and spun and managed to one's advantage. Trump is not running against issues -- he can simply lie his way through them. He is afraid of Biden's appeal with white males (Trump voters) and he is afraid of Bloomberg's money. Democrats should pay attention to what Trump wants and not give it to him.
5
Pundits should also take a lesson from this. Why didn't you all give appropriate attention to candidates like Jay Inslee, Steve Bullock, and Michael Bennet, who were in the race early enough. But no, you somehow defined them out of the race in favor of Biden, Warren, and Sanders. Inslee, Bullock, and Bennet were three serious candidates with winning records, compelling platforms, and much executive experience, something the others didn't have. Maybe a deadlocked Democratic convention will have to bring them back into contention.
2
Yes run on their ideas not the perceived faults of others.Let the media show the past but candidates need to stay focused.The fighting over meaningless details about ideas and policies, the striking at one another over past behavior is detrimental to all.
The Dems look unorganized, un united and squabbling.
The emphasis is onTrump and his record not each other.
1
I think Bernie continues to sabotage Democrats in this election. His efforts will not win him the White House but it could turn the House Red again. As for Biden, I'll see what the voters say in the next month, he very well might be the next President. If that happened, America and the rest of the world will be relieved.
3
@Joe Barnett "I think Bernie continues to sabotage Democrats in this election." Every time I see comments such as these I think of it as an insult to those voters who vote for Bernie.
1
I believe the 2020 general election is already over, we just haven't counted the votes. We will find out who already won in this November.
It does not matter who the Democrats nominate to face Trump, because the election will be not only be a referendum on Trump election, but Trump himself will make sure that the election is all about him. It does not matter what the polls are currently showing regarding which candidate does better against Trump, because by the time we get to the election the only two candidates on the ballot will be:
Trump or Not Trump. And, Trump's campaign and his campaign behavior this Summer and Fall will make sure of that is the only choice for all voters.
3
The reason the Democratic primary campaign is "mired in uncertainty" is because the remaining candidates aren't good enough, not due to the participation of the Vice President. They give out Democratic party platitudes, add a dash of Trump-hate, but show no real vision for the future. Even Senator Sanders' so-called revolution is rooted in a political past that was buried a long time ago. It was this same political mediocrity by the Republican candidates four years ago that enabled the rise of Trump in their primaries. He alone had a contrasting vision of what he wanted to do, and he didn't put you to sleep either. What remains to be seen in the current campaign is whether any of the Democratic candidates can wield the same type of message, or whether someone can step in at the last minute to save the soul of the nation.
2
I think the premise for this column is flawed. In 1992, Bush I appeared a lock, but two viable Democrats (Tsongas and Jerry Brown) joined the race, as well as a dark horse and eventual winner, Bill Clinton. The same was true in 2008. Hillary Clinton appeared to many to be a lock. Obama had only a great 2004 DNC speech and some grassroots support, but he still ran. I've always presumed presidential candidates took the view "Well, of course I'll win," otherwise they'd never begin the marathon. There may be some, including this year, who run hoping for the VP slot, but even those have the Oval Office as their final goal.
1
Most of us have our favorite candidate and usually think he/she is the one that can beat Trump.
After the shocking election of the awful vulgarian currently occupying the White House it is anybody's guess who will win.
Personally I won't vote for anyone over 70 - possible, but unlikely exception of Elizabeth Warren.
It seems the majority primarily wants the Current Occupant gone. I think we can do that if we all get out the vote, and if the current 2020 candidates stop sniping at their competitors, and if the Bernie Bros will support whoever the nominee is for the Democrats.
2
To my view, there is way too much analysis of the voting process and the strategic approach to winning and too little trust in the American voters.
Perhaps this has always been this way and I was simply unaware of how many paid consultants and political "operatives" were managing the process in the background, based on focus groups and polls. Now, with so many articles and so much of "news" on television displaced by opinion-givers, it's far more obvious.
Perhaps this is part of the problem? perhaps both Trump and Sanders are receiving the support that they have because voters want to take back the process. Campaigns and parties should put their best foot forward and stop manipulating the voters, or polls telling them ahead of time who they will likely vote for. This also corrupts democracy in ways even the Democratic party refuses to own up to.
2
Its possible Sanders would have entered in 2016 and challenged both women anyway even if Warren had entered. I dont think the Dems can accept the fact that some of the women are the most qualified candidates and yet, men keep questioning that fact. Bloomberg is a spoiler. And like Sanders is not a real Democrat.
3
The problem is Iowa. The Democrats should’ve done away with Iowa as the first caucus state after 2016. The primary there did not solve anything other than get rid of some very qualified candidates, who spent months and millions of dollars trying to get noticed while the majority white, fickle voter of the state couldn’t make up their collective minds, choosing in the end probably the two least qualified to win a general election, a socialist and Encyclopedia Brown.
Wishful thinking. The last time Republicans failed to hold onto the presidency for at least eight years was 1892, when Harrison lost. With times good the Democrats do not have a single broadly compelling candidate to take on Trump. Don’t waste your money or a good potential future candidate.
Defend the House instead.
Though not the focus of this excellent article, one fact caught my eye: Bloomberg is second (behind Biden) among African Americans. My choice this year for Democratic nominee is the guy or gal most likely to beat Trump. That's all that matters to me. We can worry about policy after we remove the anti-democratic, anti-American fool from the White House.
The biggest reason why Bloomberg could not be that guy or gal is his support for stop-and-frisk when he was New York's three-term mayor. If Bloomberg can make peace with African-American Democratic voters, he has a great chance of defeating Trump and, possibly, restoring democracy to the US. He could also put a big dent in Republican control of the Senate.
2
@Andy Bernie supporters will never get behind the billionaire. Bloomberg might win over some minority voters but not enough to counter balance the objection of a large number of minorities and women.
If he wanted to stop Bernie, he needed to get behind Joe Biden, not impeded him. This is a vanity project for Bloomberg
3
@ml Bernie supporters won’t support him why? Because he is a billionaire? What does that have to do with his ability to govern? Anyway Bloomberg is not trying to stop Bernie. He is trying to stop Trump.
I think many Bernie supporters will stay home regardless of who the nominee is, unless it is their own. Dems should not pander to them. Most of them are very young people who rarely vote anyway, or simply don’t understand what is at stake when they pull the lever for a Jill Stein.
1
So what this is all about is Bernie Sanders candidacy and his current position as the democratic front runner and how the status quo and MSM outlets do not want Bernie Sanders as their candidate for the democratic nominee.
Another good example on the same topic:
"Commentary: The media keep falling in love – with everyone except Bernie Sanders"
The Democratic front-runner is winning, but somehow he’s never the triumphant story.
Margaret Sullivan The Washington Post
Just "Imagine...the November election results", had MSM and the DNC/Establishment politics had not overreacted.
9
May be it has got to do with the fact he is the only candidate who is not a registered Democrat.
I believe Sanders split the ticket and thats why trump won the election. I will never forgive him for this. Democrats lost, first woman's candidate lost, and thev worst candidate ever won! Bernie is a socialist, and a very old one.
9
@Kitty Lynch, "split the ticket"? What on Earth do you mean? You think he ran as an independent in the general election? Bernie was not on the ticket.
If you mean his supporters didn't turn out for Clinton, wrong. By far, most did. More Bernie primary voters went for Clinton in the 2016 general than Clinton primary voters went for Obama in the 2008 general. Did you complain about that in 2008?
1
@Kitty Lynch. How can you possibly say that Sanders split the ticket? In the general election, he was not a third-party candidate à la Ralph Nader. Quite the contrary, Sanders campaigned for Clinton. Blaming him for Clinton's defeat is totally senseless! Hillary Clinton lost the election because she was the worst possible candidate the Democrats could bless with their nomination. You would be better to focus your anger at the Democratic National Committee.
1
@Bluevelo Some say Hilary Clinton was the most qualified person that has ever run for President. Except for the being a girl part....
I think Mr. Leonhardt accurately describes the kind of decision limbo a lot of us Democrats are in, though I guess that wasn’t the point of this opinion piece. Is there really a “Biden problem” as he seems to think? What there is is a Trump problem and a lot of people who think this is their chance. I was particularly disappointed by Harris dropping out so early, but she made enough early mistakes to make me doubt her, so I guess it turned out as it should have.
Now something I really didn’t like—yesterday I was watching a Bloomberg rally on the news and there was a gang of people booing loudly. He handled it well, but it was disturbing. I said to my husband, it’s a bad sign that he gets this and no one else does, and he said, there have been people booing Biden—Sanders supporters (he watches a lot more cable news than I do). I don’t know if those are really Sanders supporters, but if they are, this is confirming what so many people say about him—I don’t mind Sanders but I don’t like his supporters. We don’t need this divisiveness. Leave that to the Trumpsters.
2
Bloomberg was a Republican until recently. Now a "moderate"? Unless one wants to forget his opinion about women and minorities.
4
No one is perfect. I will take Bloomberg for his staunch support of Antigun, Climate change, sound fiscal policies.
His current courting of black voters involved as genuine a mea culpa as can be elicited from any politician. I say we move on and accept him as a born again Democrat on that one.
He is everything Trump imagines him to be and everything Trump could never be. He has openly come out to say he will support any nominee with the same fervor as if he is the candidate and even guaranteed his campaign staffers employment until November. So, it is not just words but in action as well. Has any other candidate made similar pledge backed with similar action?
He will also immensely help down ticket and it is crucial to win Senate and retain House.
So, yes, I will go with Bloomberg and hope he bring in an opposite view candidate like Warren as VP and announce Kamala Harris as his nominee for Attorney General to be the inclusive candidate he needs to be.
3
Another endorsement for the pursuit of celebrity instead of actual politics.
4
Biden surely did block the field for other moderates by sheer name recognition. This is independent from what other Democrats did.
1
A most peculiar read. It's as though the Dem field weren't originally so large with early entries that they couldn't be fit onto one stage, generating months of worry that so large group was weakening the party. What, precisely, is the evidence that people waited too long? And as to dropping out too soon, it's as though "drop out now, ye silly doomed divisive fools" hadn't been the message thrown in the face of all other candidates as the Dem Establishment broadcast polls about Biden"s "electability" as though sounding from the horn of Gabriel.
3
Imagine a primary calendar that didn't give outsized influence to rural white states. We need to tear the system down and start over to ensure candidates of color have an equal shot.
2
No, Biden didn’t scare off our next President, Bernie is still there and not scared in the least.
9
A Landrieu-Klobuchar ticket would win 45 states, period.
@Mike7 yes but how many in OUR country?
Maybe the Democrats just don't have a viable candidate?
Imagination isn't what is running the political operation at the D.N.C. or prevalent at the state level like in Iowa. This is also true for most of the individual politicians running for the nomination. So if imagination isn't the primary motivation and founding philosophy then what besides fear of the Bogeyman (Trump) is? I'd say keeping or seeking influence and power within the party is playing a considerable role in managing IE: causing all this chaos and confusion. In 2016 Clinton's people in her campaign and at the D.N.C. ran the game so badly that Trump won the presidency. These "paid consultants" don't lose when their candidate looses, the consequences of losing are paid by the people seeking better representation. These are the same clowns at the D.N.C. including Tom Perez, the chairman whose organization couldn't be bothered overseeing state parties and ensuring that they could do their jobs. The Iowa caucus app failure was caused by paid consultants from Clinton's campaign. The same people keep losing over and over and yet here we are with them "again". How many times do the current crop of "political consultants" have to be wrong and still keep getting hired? Its puzzling beyond comprehension, for cripes sake "fire them" and try someone else, someone with imagination & competence, please!
One little note: 689 comments without any Times picks? Who has time to read 698+ comments. Times picks help give a feel for the opinions of others and are needed always.
3
If memory serves, a) the DNC doesn’t run individual state campaigns, and was told to butt out when they offered help in Iowa, and b) Tom Perez was DNC chair during the 2018 elections.
Which went, if memory serves, pretty darn well.
Anyone who was scared off by Biden does not deserve to be President.
6
Believing in socialists, like Sanders, is the next step towards growing up once a person realizes that Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy aren't real. Society can only hope that it's only a passing phase.
2
Don’t blame Mr Biden . Our profoundly immoral Trump dragged Hilary daily with the fake email where he asked Russia for help. Now he bruised Mr Biden with dragging his sons name into
Trumps traitorous felony with Ukraine. I would like to see a Bloomburg and Hilary ticket. They are the only ones who will shut down coal for good and fossil fuels if Mr Biden leaves. Yesterday i read an article from Scranton pa news. In 2018 there was 3,100 air pollution deaths from coal and oil use and that was the highest count in Pennsylvania. Shame on those miners for showing no backbone and leaving that toxic job. They have no right polluting our air and water. Lock them up.
Biden isn't at fault here. He did what you and I and anyone else would do: He hogged the lane, took all the oxygen – whatever metaphor you want to use. That was his job.
And that became the story the media wrapped around him, much the way Trump's "unelectablity" became the story wrapped around Trump until he, well, got elected.
The better headline for this is "Did the Media Scare Off Our Next President." And frankly, I've had it with the media chatter.
3
@Douglas Fischer, really, the media acts like if they could have their way their gift for gab makes them better qualified to choose who leads this country.
Just think if Hillary had not run in 2016. Who knows what great candidates we might have had in her place.
2
Where I come from, we wait for the corpse to stop moving before we start pounding nails into the coffin lid.
If that's too obscure, consider this: the premise of this entire article is for an event that has not transpired yet, and may NOT transpire at all.
Wisdom suggests that one wait until the storm has passed before writing breathless stories about its ill effects. At the very least, one waits until the storm actually begins before weighing in on its effects. Any other approach makes the "pundit" look less an essayist and more a Ouija board aficionado.
1
@Hart Williams
"Wisdom..."
YES that is we need now: in the media as well as in the electorate.
1
Imagine how voters would have appreciated four more candidates in the already over stuffed debates! Not!
1
Bloomberg is not a centrist, he’s an oligarch. He’s more like Trump, just a little less racist who’s campaign is meant to destroy Democratic candidates. He has zero chance of getting elected and knows it. That just leaves Trump getting re-elected, his goal.
Biden sank because voters want change and he offers status quo, Senator Warren is dangerous to Wall Street, thus the campaign to destroy her has been very aggressive from the main stream press to Cable TV - pundits included. Bloomberg is showing the corrupt power of money and or many people like that. Naked hijacking of the country .
6
I honestly thought this article was going to be about Sherrod Brown. He dropped out when it was clear Biden was getting in.
2
Bloomberg is going to be destroyed in the next Democratic debate, assuming he even qualifies. Can’t wait to see his competitors take his down.
No More Plutocrat Presidents!
5
All these 'flash in the pan' candidates, Booker, Williamson, Harris, etc. flamed-out and then the temerity to blame others than themselves!. If their egos weren't so grand, they would have know the eventual outcome. Booker was the most laughable of all
There were 29 candidates for the Democrat nomination -- no one was "scared off".
Biden didn't scare off others, but Speaker Pelosi's making Biden the centerpiece of her impeachment attack on the President sunk him.
But yes, all of the Democrat Best and Brightest did decide not to run and left us with our present motley crew. (My Governor would wipe all of the 29 off the stage, then get the President to "retire".)
When Joe Biden drops out after his poor showing on Super Tuesday, to whom do you think he’s going to pass the baton on to in this planned candidacy relay race?
Hint: He’s a fresh newbie first appearing on Super Tuesday and he is the Democrats champion Benevolent Billionaire to challenge the Republicans Brutal Billionaire in the Battle of Oligarchs! The money is on ...Citizens United!
2
The campaign is yet young. Super Tuesday isn't even here yet. Two events and some clowns are talking like it's all but over.
Was the Civil War all but over after the Union failed to capture Richmond early?
Did Pearl Harbor decide the winner of that conflict?
2
Excuse me, but Klobuchar hasn’t dropped out of the race. If you’re looking for a ‘moderate’...
4
Hindsight is always 20-20. Now we have yours. Thanks so much....
2
So, Bernie; taking away private health insurance, imposing a one-size-fits all “Harrison Bergeron” system, and still can’t admit he has no real plan how to pay for it. That kills him in the swing states. New Yorkers, you don’t seem to realize that the swing states are the contest, and winning more votes in Blue States means nothing.
1
If they were 'sacred off', then they really didn't need to be our President.
2
No human being on planet Earth can predict the future. Not a single one.
2
There may have been "the one" out there who didn't get into the race because Biden was touted as a foregone frontrunner. Beware the coastal media pundits.
Woulda, coulda, shouda. This column sound just like me after I miss out on a big trifecta at the race track. It also makes about as much sense.
2
Keep Iowa, first with two more representative States. Keep New Hampshire, second with two more representative States...This will give a chance to the candidates to cover more territories in January......and also provide an opportunity for candidates with less money to do a better job for the Super Tuesday....as explained in 2020liaison.blogspot.com
1
I miss John McCain. I will vote for whichever Dem gets the nomination.
1
There already were too many candidates months ago when those not serious enough like Biden began to drop. Moral: if you want to be elected don't listen to polls, they're as fickle as the commentariat which worships them.
2
When I think about the elections, I go very far into the past.
Why did the people choose Moses, Jesus or Mohammed?
The believers always wonder what those individuals would do or actually did many centuries ago.
The truth is they didn’t know either.
They were roaming in life like all of us do. Nobody knows the answers. That’s why we live our lives - to find out.
And when the next generation comes up, there is another set of questions with completely new and different answers.
Then we go again from the very beginning.
If Moses knew the future, do you think that he would have killed a Pharaoh soldier, ran away and many years later returned to Egypt?
If Jesus knew that God’s temple in Jerusalem had been desecrated by the small peddlers selling and trading everything in its front yard, do you think that Christ would have spent several years roaming the shores of the Sea of Galelee?
And if Mohamed knew that he would be forced to run away from Mecca that he wouldn’t immediately moved to Medina at the very beginning?
You try and fail, learn something new, and keep attempting till you succeed.
Just never give up!
Stay positive and keep fighting for your principles in the peaceful way.
Prerequisite for this strategy is persistence, love, patience and tolerance.
2
As we work our way through the primary season, here's a thought for NYTimes Opinion columnists and the candidates: Whoever It Is, Whatever It Takes.
2
The more relevant question might be, can he scare off our current one…
In a word, no – but there is someone who can…
Before Nixon was forced to resign – or face impeachment (and removal)…
LBJ was forced not to run for re-election – or face increasing domestic unrest (and humiliating defeat)…
If Bloomberg does as well as I expect he will on March 3rd – watch what ensues…
Campaigns are long and unpredictable. This needs to be said more often. Especially to those opinioneers who claim to have a crystal ball and knowledge not available to the rest of us about who is electable and who is not. Any of the remaining Dems still have a shot. And Trump versus any of them is 50-50. We will know the story of 2020 when it is over.
2
I think the weakness of Biden had the opposite effect ...more people got in the race. Am not sure why Biden — who was notorious for his gaffes under President Obama — is given so much attention.
2
I tend to think Al Franken would be leading the pack right now and also the most capable candidate to confound Trump in a national election. Also the perfect man-in-the-middle to bridge the centrist and social Democrat wings of the party. The debates would have been very entertaining. But unfortunately, the circular firing squad that is the Democratic Party decided to cut his legs out from under him and actually subjected him to more criticism and pressure than they did with the real misogynist predator Donald Trump. Franken was framed by an ambitious Kirsten Gellibrand and the party of purity joined in the lynching. That’s just the way they roll, spineless cowards with no strategy or ideas and no regard for the party platform. And that’s why this election is already a forgone conclusion. Four years and this is the field we have?
1
What cynical politics is this??? Run even if you don't think it's your time to run? Is politics just a hopscotch kinda game? The American people want solutions, not meta-gaming power moves by political consultants. A sad, disappointing article about the self-centeredness of man.
2
The one I regret not running is Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
3
What about the assumption that the assessment of candidates and predictions of the outcome of this race according to the usual conventional wisdom were completely wrong in fact?
When I look at recent performances of candidates nothing of the forced projections was true. Particularly Mr. Biden doesn´t scare anybody, especialiy not by his appearance and speeches. The only ones who are scared at present are his supporters, backers and enablers but not due to his powerful assertive approach rather because of the opposite impression. In contrary: The written down Mr. Sanders in in best great grandpa´s age also appears like he fell into a fountain of youth at present even in the most conservative flyover hinterlands doing well particularly in comparison with Mr. Biden who represents his great-grandpa´s age age-appropriately there. Mr. Buttigieg assessed as a nice young man who also tried before passed other competitors of his camp laid-back easily who are looking at his taillights only. How dares he?
As far as I can see Mr. Biden is preventing anybody actually. It looks like the others are preventing Mr. Biden. Iffy questions seem to be just as unhelpful as lots of woulds, mights and other imaginations. What I see is Mr. Biden taking refuge in his defiant statement "But I will be elected by Afro-Americans!" Soon we will see in South Carolina. As the Romans used to say: "Ibi Rhodos - alright, nowadays SC - ibi salta!"
So there must be something wrong. With conventional wisdom.
will we even have elections after four more years of Trump?
The natural candidates--Sherrod Brown and Cuomo--never ran. The reasons the others dropped out quickly was that they think this is 1984 and that no Democrat has a chance. It was amazing that Mondale was willing to run in 1984.
Since the war, we almost always give a party eight years and then shift. Really the only exception was we took the normal Democratic 1981-1985 away and gave it to the next Republican 8 years. And even from 1981 to 1985 the President was a Democrat until the 1950d.
1
Biden's funding and ego will keep him in for another couple of rounds, but he really is not the person for the job.
2
If you're so timid that you're "scared off" by anyone--particularly someone as weak a candidate as Biden--then you probably shouldn't be running for President.
Ever.
1
So. It’s a fiasco.
What would you expect to happen when you begin with thinking Michael Avenatti should be considered seriously as a Democratic presidential contender?
Or Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke. Remember him?
Of course it’s a fiasco.
Yeah, wouldn't it have been great to have 50 Democrats running for president. That would really clarify the race!
Correct. It isn't Biden's fault: Biden is only the means by which Leonhardt and his 'opinion brethren' have damaged the political process by anointing Biden the frontrunner and the most electable with zero evidence of such.
Fortunately, reality has intervened and shown that Biden is neither (particularly in two unrepresentative 'white' states where he should have shined).
Has Leonhardt learned any lessons? Clearly not. He's now telling us who can't win the presidency (Sanders) -- all the while warning us against jumping to premature conclusions. Laughable.
2
“They committed a classic error of presidential politics, believing that campaigns were more predictable than they are.”
So is the press. Every day the press makes this mistake: prognosticating, pretending to know about electability... please.
2
I think that the "next president" who was cleared off wasn't the ones named here. I think Sherrod Brown of Ohio would be a strong contender and would whip Trump's sorry behind upside and down in November.
He has such a strong blue collar appeal that he would totally undercut Trump's Rust Belt base. And remember: Win Ohio and you win the election.
3
It would have been better if the Democratic nominee had been selected in a smoke-filled room by party hacks who, relying on research and expert advice, picked the candidate most likely to win. And if Democratic voters, trusting the party Establishment and the System, had rallied around her or him.
The Democratic party’s democratic process for selecting nominees, through primaries and open caucuses undermines chances for success in the general election. By the time Democratic hopefuls vying for the nomination have gone through the process they and their followers have slung so much mud at one another that any further mud-slinging by Republicans in the run-up to the general election is virtually superfluous.
1
Every nominee in the Republican Party is problematic. They continue to prove it each day.
Ever since a Biden run was talked of, I feared his participation would distort the primary field - too big to ignore, too weak to gain momentum.
Another distortion is the Clintons' suppressing the development of a deep bench of Democratic presidential contenders to ensure 'Hillary's turn' - Barack Obama was literally the proverbial Black Swan.
It would have been better had Biden, Bernie, and Bloomberg stayed out of the race and served as mentors and supporters. But for many reasons the field is what it is and we'll sort it out.
If 2016 has taught us anything, it's that anyone can be elected. Electability rests less on a candidate's qualities than on the electorate's determination. If we oppose the Trump administration, then we'll unite behind the Democratic nominee. It's in our hands. Eyes on the prize.
4
Biden was not as strong as Biden and his supporters said he was. He's old, he's odd, and he had a lackluster career in decades of politics. I feel the same about Sanders.
But that's my preference. Vote your preference in the primary and for the Democratic nominee in the general election.
I'll vote for Sanders or Biden in the general if one wins the Democratic primary, but neither Biden nor Sanders will get my vote in the primary.
7
How is Michael Bloomberg a member of the "moderate wing" of the Democratic Party? I guess it's by dint of his positions on gun control and abortion. In economics, he's against raising the minimum wage, he's in favor of cutting Social Security, he loves Goldman Sachs and Wall Street in general, he sees no problem with gross income and wealth inequality. In general, he's the worst sort of neoliberal, business Republican. Combine that with "stop and frisk" and his checkered at best history with women and you have a "Democrat" far to the right of Joe Manchin.
9
I think it's worth considering that although the DNC had it all sewn up for Biden at the outset, many candidates decided to run. If Mitch Landrieu, Deval Patrick and Michael Bloomberg were "scared off", perhaps they're not right for the job anyway. It may have been useful in keeping out the riffraff, at least up until the point the DNC allowed Bloomberg's money to soften their overall position.
On the other hand, I'd like to see the Democratic Party allow voters to have their votes counted, instead of overriding the votes with delegates. There has been much gnashing of teeth since 2016 over the fact that Clinton had more votes than Trump and it wasn't fair that the Electoral College was allowed to choose the president, yet the DNC does the exact same thing with the party's nomination.
4
This is right on time. The only thing I would like to add is a point about the irrational fear of "too large a field." That also helped to drive potentially strong candidates out of the race. Everyone was so concerned about "confusing" the electorate.
Also, why do people keep mentioning Bloomberg's strength. It has not been tested. Before Iowa Biden was supposedly the frontrunner. Can we just let things unfold?
3
Biden probably did scare some viable candidates away initially, but the reason for joining late had less to do with Biden's strong position in early polls and more to do with the cumulative damage of near-constant negative coverage associated with Biden's connections to Ukrainian corruption alleged by the president and the entire GOP. Even though the claims were always baseless, the damage was already done and repeated over and over. Voters probably experienced premature "Biden fatigue" and possibly "Biden suspicion" as a result.
@SJnTS Or maybe it's because Biden told people to vote for someone else.
1
Running for president has become a rich "man" game, whether it is Bernie Sanders who raises more than a $1 millions a day, or Michael Bloomberg who has the financial resources to stay in the race while others drop out. I don't think Corey Booker or Kamala Harris dropped out of the race because they were intimidated by Joe Biden. They dropped out because they ran out of money. Similarly, Joe Biden will drop out of the race, not because he is intimidated by Michael Bloomberg or Bernie Sanders. He will drop out because he has run out of money.
2
@STSI they all run a very bad campaign. Your inability to raise funds is a sign that you are not favored by the same people you expect to vote for you. No one will donate to a candidate that they don't support.
2
Please do not fault Kamala Harris, but rather those who would not support a biracial Black woman. Yes, some of her past decisions were problematic but Bloomberg's are much more and he is ahead because of white male privilege!
10
@xyz Lot's of us who would support a "biracial Black woman" do not support Kamala Harris. While she may be a fine Senator her campaign's vision was basically ambition. And her "I was that little girl" ploy was a transparent and cynical attempt at manipulation of identity politics. She's a great fighter, articulate and a good person to have in your corner but nothing more than that, at least at this time.
To some degree, aren't the Democrats now in the position the GOP was in in 2016: Then, the GOP was scrambling through one bumbling candidate after the other, only to end up at the eleventh hour with the unlikely (and derided) candidate Trump?
(Let's not talk about what happened with the Dems in 2016).
Money does seem to run these things; on the other hand, why should Booker or Harris have exited so early--even Yang--considering the way things are playing out now?
I stand by whatever candidate gets the popular Democratic nomination; let's hope we are not waffling in November.
4
WRH said it best below.
Forget the in-fighting. The goal must be for the Dems to win the EC. Without that, all is for naught; otherwise, the Beast that currently occupies the Oval is unleashed.
And even more unhinged than what we've witnessed in the past almost 3.5 yrs.
WRH
Denver, CO U.S.A2h ago
It all comes down to the Electoral College.
Pick and support a candidate who can carry the important states with the most power in the College.
As we have learned, popular votes do not elect the president.
Adjustments to policies, programs, platforms, can be made after a Democrat is in the Oval Office.
The next president is going to have a real mess to clean up to restore our democratic republic - it will take years.
It's also time to also make the Senate a Democratic and a democratic body - as well as keep the House.
2
Citizens United and dark money influence was not as prevalent in 2008 as it is today. A nearly bankrupt NRA will most likely give another $30M to the GOP. Russian and Saudi money will pour in from offshore banks and other laundered methods. While Bernie and other Democrats speak of small donors, it can’t compare. It’s time to self fund the elections and take the money out of it.
5
@KeninDFW
"Self fund"? Like Bloomberg? You think that'll take the money *out* of elections?
To take the money out of elections we need to do what they do in civilized countries. Take a look at Europe, France, for instance.
2
The obvious issue to me, is that it is virtually impossible to defeat an incumbent regardless of how unlikable he is with a great economy. Only four incumbent presidents have been defeated in the last century and all those faced tremendous economic headwinds. Hoover-depression Ford-recession Carter/ recession and hyper-inflation with 16% interest rates GHW Bush- inflation It was an uphill climb for any Democrat from the start, but Biden has stumbled and fumbled in the debates and when asked questions and it seems like his best days are way behind him. I expect the DNC, superdelegates, and the elite to ensure Michael Bloomberg gets the nomination. It is unlikely he will defeat Trump either.
2
After Trump, I've given up on predicting political outcomes. If Trump can overcome all odds and expectations and become president, then so can Bernie, or Elizabeth, or Bloomberg, or absolutely anyone.
Trying to base your vote on whom you think OTHERS will find acceptable is a fool's game. The only mind you truly know is your own. So vote your heart and your principles. Be for Bernie if you're for Bernie; be for Warren if you're for Warren. Elections should reflect the will of the people, not the people's tentative guessing about the preferences of others.
959
@Jason I agree. We have turned into a nation of low quality pundits instead of voting for what we really want.
50
@Jason: As long as there's an Electoral College elections cannot really reflect "the will of the people".
58
@Jason
Dang straight.
I don't understand people who don't vote for the candidate they like just because they think that person won't win.
As you said, 'Elections should reflect the will of the people.'
I couldn't agree more.
29
Despite all the talk of his buying the election which certainly isn’t a sure thing, the Democratic Party is lucky to have Bloomberg’s participation since he’s generously promised to get behind whichever candidate gets the nomination if it isn’t him.
982
We're definitely looking at a brokered convention for the Democrats in July.
The math alone tells us that no one currently in the field is going to accumulate the necessary 1991 delegates to win on the first ballot.
The bloc of delegates to watch, however, are this year's "automatic delegates," aka the "super delegates" of 2016 -- the Democrats' US Reps and Senators plus governors and a few other top dogs numbering 771, or 16% of the roughly 4753 votes available if the convention goes to a second ballot.
So even though Super Tuesday will determine the allocation of some 1500 delegates -- or a third of the total if there is a second ballot, some really important already politicking needed to be aimed at the 771 automatic delegates who comprise 16% of the total 4753.
The crucial positioning for candidates at this point is for them simply to be in the mix. They all have a shot once the primaries end and there's no single candidate with a 1991 delegates.
We can easily speculate that Sanders will not be high on the automatic delegates' list because he's more like a third party guy but mostly b/c the 28 formerly Republican seats that Democrats won in the House in 2018 were all taken by moderates ... and not far left progressives like Bernie.
The horse trading in July will be happening among the remaining moderates. Not only were some foolish to be scared off by Biden early on, the survivors would also be foolish to concede before the convention finally picks its winner.
12
@
Bronx Jon
But Sanders is too much of a purist to accept Bloomberg’s help.
8
@Oliver
Bernie doesn't need Bloomberg's billions.
With $25 million in donations in January alone - coming from a donor base of millions of average Americans - I'd say Bernie is positioned quite well to do it without the support of a multi-billionaire.
21
My fellow Democrats, it’s really not that hard. Just picture the next Supreme Court vacancy and ask yourselves whom you want to be President when that vacancy inevitably occurs. Then vote for the Democratic nominee. You may rest easy knowing that whoever he or she is, the country—and especially the judiciary—will be in far better hands than it is in Trump’s.
827
@Drusilla Hawke The next Democratic president has a duty to add seats to the Supreme Court following the Senate's recent machinations. The Republicans packed the court by denying Obama's nominee and then filling vacancies with a bare majority. Democrats must pack the court as well when it's their turn. There is nothing sacred about having only 9 justices, and the number is not set by the constitution, but by Congress.
13
@Andy Good luck with that. It would likely take a Constitutional amendment yo do it, as it would take a constitutional amendment to eliminate the Electoral College. What can be done, I think, is that the Electors could be regulated by statute in ways that they are not now. FDR tried packing the SCOTUS and he was in a lot stronger position that anyone running today.
1
@Drusilla Hawke
This was true in 2016 and HRC won the popular vote, but not the Presidency. Besides, people should indeed vote for whomever they prefer in the PRIMARIES, but once there is a nominee, yes, they should definitely unite. Leonhart doesn’t make this clear as I read it.
5
"Imagine what this race might look like if other candidates had not taken a pass". Imagine what these campaigns would look like if it didn't cost so much to try. If you didn't need millions and millions and millions to even try to be a candidate. Yet another of the pernicious effects of the campaign finance mess, including Citizens United.
3
Moderate here who has voted for both parties. Yes it is problematic for democrats if Bernie wins the nomination. Trump won’t even have to campaign - he can simply say “you might not like me - but I’m not that guy” and he will win the presidency.
Why? Because most moderates and swing voters in OH, MI, FL, and PA like their 401ks and like their healthcare plans.
Vowing to tear down the system in the face of an economic boom is not a way to be elected President.
369
@Jason
Really, most people like their healthcare plans? Then what's all the complaints about out of network billing and people complaining about not being able to afford medications. If they're so satisfied, what are they complaining about.
107
@Jason Most like their insurance plans because they don't realize the true cost, have never had a major health issue, and don't realize their risk of going bankrupt and/or of disability.
Most who get employer insurance are not aware that they pay only ~20% of the premium from their paycheck, NOT the full amount. So for a family, deducted from their paycheck is $4k. The employer, instead of paying salary, pays $16k. Most erroneously think it only costs them $4k, when in reality, it costs them $20k.
- When something happens, say birth of a child where bills = $30,000, after deductable and 20% coinsurance, the cost to tye family is $7,000... insurance pays the rest. This family thinks they got a bargain. "We only had to pay $7k out of $30k." However, in reality, you paid a $20k premium plus $7k out of Pocket.
- The above is routine. When people get real sick, the system breaks down entirely. Employer insurance won't be there in the vast majority of cases if one must go on leave. Ie Get sick, and you have to go buy a plan in the open market, most likely over $20k. And if you're on leave, you get disability which is far lower than your salary. Double whammy.
- Insurers set caps what they pay out in a year and lifetime for anything not "essential health benefits." For instance if you get cancer and care costs $300k, your insurer may have an annual cap of $50k. You owe $250k, after you already paid $20k in premiums, after $1-2k in deductibles, and after $10k in coinsurance.
78
@Steve
They're not satisfied -- but they are more afraid of losing what little they have.
What if a stranger stops you on the street and says, "You don't know me, but trust me -- if you give me your paycheck today, tomorrow I'll give you back ten times as much."
Would you go for it? It's too big a gamble for most people.
18
Of course Bernie Sanders can win, and polls in the battleground states show that he can. Democrats win elections with bold vision, not status quo or playing it safe.
He actually has some of the same opinions as Trump, on trade pacts, curbing endless wars, etc. Bernie also has solid support among Black and Latino voters.
I was supporting Biden as the safe choice, but there is no enthusiasm for Joe among Democrats. Bernie's off-beat personality and message are creating excitement. I'm feeling the Bern and will be voting for him in the CA. Primary.
8
@Mark McIntyre
Bernie Sanders just had a hard attack and is 78 years of age. I don’t think he will be the candidate. Amy Klobuchar would make a fantastic President of the Untied States.
@Lynn Jefferson
Anybody would be a fantastic President compared to the current occupant of the White House. Things can change, but current polls in the battleground states show Bernie wins and Amy loses.
Some consider Bernie too radical, but compared to what? No one is more radical than Trump.
3
This is due in part to the Democrats obsession for a savior/messiah.
Look at this cycle for example, who has been the flavor of the month so far:
-Beto
-Kamala
-Joe
-Liz
-Pete
-Bernie
-Bloomberg
Now it is Amy's turn (due in part to her being the only one left)
Dems generally put more things into their selection criteria than the idea of winning an election. They always tend to write more into it than that.
There have only been three Democrats elected to the White House in the last half century (compared to six GOP) for a reason, they over think it.
In order to run for president, you must believe you are the best qualified person. We seem to have a lot of late entrants that are thinking "Well, I might as well give it a try. There is a large number of people that will vote for anyone but Trump. Count me in." But that isn't the fire in the belly I am looking for in a candidate. Amy, Elizabeth, Pete and Bernie all believe in them selves, some of the others are just thinking "Why not me?"
1
Like most commenters, I will vote for the democratic nominee whoever that may be. While Bloomberg receives considerable support from the readership of the Times, I am concerned that his appeal to working class Americans may have significant limits.
On the other hand, large swaths of the population want Medicare for all, a green new deal and affordable college. Bernie Sanders is a democratic socialist and everybody knows it. He also polls has the most popular politician in the country.
8
@Bob Dass
Bernie is not as popular as you think.
A lot of people want a lot of things. Unfortunately theu have to be paid for in this century.
Trump has said he won't be alive to pay fpr anything so he doesn't care. Let's hope fewer people feel that way.
2
@Butterfly
You may be right. I try to make judgements of popularity based on polls. And I try assess economic viability based upon economists.
1
Everybody who wants to beat Trump in the 2020 presidential race needs to step back, take and breath and ask two questions: which candidate will bring out the most voters among people of color and which democratic candidate has the best chance to win the Midwest states?
These questions need to asked since the Democratic candidate running in the general election has to have the vote of minority voters and must be able to bring back enough working-class voters in the Midwest to win the election in the Electoral College.
I'll give you a hint: Joe Biden has the support of people of color. He also got a lot of credit from Barack Obama for helping to win Midwest states in 2008 and 2012.
We should, at this point in the nominating process use less ink and less talk about policies and personalities and focus on who
can bring home the electoral votes in the states Democrats must win in 2020.
1
@Richard J. Noyes What working class voters in the Midwest? Those who are too old to work or those down at the Country Club?
1
In his way, Biden has performed a service to the Democrats by helping to filter out those too timid to go for it. Anyone waiting for an invitation to run does not deserve the nomination.
1
Unlike Biden, Steyer is definitely at least talking the talk real progressives want to hear. Whether he will also walk the walk is far from certain. Bernie is the only one that can be trusted with that.
4
Agreed. JFK starting running after the 1956 convention after he graciously asked the delegates to make the nomination of Estes Kefauver unanimous after he defeated him for the vice presidential nomination. Nixon started his comeback after he lost the 1962 election for California governor.
1
I find the argument that this election needed *more* people vying for the nomination bizarre. We started with 20+ and are still at 6+ with Super Tuesday right around the corner! If Biden scared off potential runs by others, I shudder at the thought of what could have been.
3
Hello!! Isn't 20 some candidates enough? Did the author forget about the money necessary to run a campaign. Only Bloomberg can enter the race late and have an impact. Is that because he has favorable ideas or it is because he has billions to spend on political advertising?
It is not the lack of candidates, but the primary process itself. There is no justification for Iowa and New Hampshire to be the first out of the gate. Both are small and lack diversity. A better system would have the larger states going first where a more defined front runner would have to have the support of a much more diverse group of voters.
3
Each Democrat in the race "could be a problematic nominee," including Elizabeth Warren, whom I like a lot. I fear that Trump could belittle, humiliate and sideline her. I think that is less likely with Bernie Sanders, Bloomberg or yes, even Tom Steyer. It has nothing to do with their being more savvy, just the prejudices that Trump effectively plays on.
This is a good dress rehearsal for Pete Buttigieg but I'd be more worried about how his sexual orientation is attacked than Bernie's political leanings. It is looking like the fight will come down to Bernie vs Bloomberg, as Bernie's support is rock solid and Bloomberg has money and the DNC behind him.
3
Ha! Anybody can be a Monday morning quarterback. No way to be proven wrong.
3
We’ll see if Bloomberg breaks the running too late theory.
I blame Biden for his hubris. He should never have even comtemplated running. He should have realized that he is too old and doesn't have the stamina for a grueling campaign. Sanders has the same problem. Obama's coattails only go so far. He caused too much better candidates, Brown and Landrieu, to defer to him.
2
@Gail Davenport But Sanders seems to be doing quite well, despite of his age.
2
Being intimidated by Biden is part of the test. If you're too intimidated by Biden, who's done this twice before and both times imploded, then you're just not making very good political calculations. There have been quite a few candidates who were not intimidated. Anybody who was is unlikely to win.
The real craziness was last election, when every viable candidate was intimidated by Clinton. That was crazy.
4
No, Trump will win. Didn't get scared off by Biden.
1
Far from scaring them, candidates like Harris, Booker and Castro felt emboldened to attack Biden on the debate stage, resulting in their loss of popularity
Fracking? You think Bernie Sander's will be a problematic nominee because of his stance on fracking? You think South Florida retirees are debating Trump vs. Sanders over fracking? Or Michigan auto workers? Nevada casino workers? Fracking?
3
“To sleep – perchance to dream: ay, there’s the rub…”
Please Mr. Leonhardt let's get real. Sometimes things are what they are. Presently there is no majority consensus who should be the Democratic nominee.
In 2016 there were only two running . With multiple choices this time the selection process will be more complicated. All have to live with it. This decision is further complicated by states filled with inhabitants who have different political majorities or pluralities, one from the other. This is the present American system.
That's what you should complain about. Candidates can be elected by dirt rather than eligible voters. Add in voter suppression and the system representative luster erodes even more ,
1
If the Democrats don't stop fighting with each other Trump will win again. The Dems don't seem to know that simple fact. The object is to stop this man in the White House from having another term in office where he will no doubt become more and more autocratic. The Repubs have already given him the right to be a dictator and winning another term will only serve to solidify that notion in his head. He keeps telling us, on a daily basis, that he can do ANYTHING he wants to do. Please vote to stop him.
3
The winning candidate is the one who controls social media and who grabs the most headlines in the 2020 election. Guess who is the master at that game.
2
I would love to see Cory Booker back in the race. Even if not for President, I hope the winner chooses him forbVP. We do have some great men and women in this country and Cory is one of them.
3
I'm incredibly proud of the captioner of the cast photo.
2
Biden has suffered from having the entire GOP and Fox News spreading unfounded Russian propaganda and lies about he and his son for the past three months as well, which did exactly the damage Trump wanted, while the GOP Senate obstructed justice for him.
3
@Joaquin I like Joe but do not support him for President for various reasons. I do, however, think his candidacy does a service by distracting the incumbent who appears obsessed/intimidated by him. Probably because Biden is everything he is not except a woman.
1
Imagine hat it would be like if DNC had not allowed Sanders to run as a Democrat.
It would be Hillary 2.0 this time and they would have lost the popular vote in 2016.
Every time you feel the need to dirty our world a little more with your so extremely unconsidered, juvenile opinions, David, I feel the need to comment (where I do nowhere else). First paragraph - Sanders was Warren's biggest champion and urged her to run against Clinton, leaving that out and identifying him as the "less prominent progressive" is a snide little backhanded comment that he mucked that race up.. Then your analysis proceeds to not mention the front runner in the race the entire time, not mention the improbability of HIS campaign, defying every pundits poor analysis that he couldn't rally the type of unprecedented movement that is behind him. Your nonmention of him is in the "hey, why didn't everyone stay in, then maybe Bernie wouldn't be headed towards the nomination!" You of course can favor or dislike any candidate you like, but just have the stomach to say it outright, the dance becomes disingenuous and phony as the rest of them. Lead on, David.
7
Bernie is going all the way with this thing and I for one couldn't be happier.
6
The mainstream pundits here still can't accept that the majority want a true Democratic Party representative like Liz or Bernie, and NOT Joe Biden, or even Amy K. We want real change, not more of back to the status quo of the Clinton Machine......socially liberal (kind of) but still going easy on the Wall Streeters and Sillycone Valley millionaires' taxes. Get over yourselves, your own employer endorsed Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar. Bernie is extremely popular because he INSPIRES people. How do you feel when you see a photo of Joe? Liz Warren will have a strong showing on Super Tuesday, she's experienced, inspirational, and she actually does have a plan for many of societies ills. You need to get out more.
7
the start will be the finish: Joe Biden for Potus and Amy or Kamala as his VP. The word will be: Joe serves only one term- likely just a year or two, with the gal VP taking over for 6 to 10 years- leading us into the gal world which is surely coming.
Still a guy world, but barely.
"The field could have been bigger and stronger than it is and that Democrats shouldn’t have been so bashful."
Oh, the democrats have been far from bashful.
Just like they believe in solving a problem by throwing money at it, they saw Trump as their problem and threw twenty plus candidates against him.
Are the democrats any closer to solving their problem?
Let's just say, they are going to have to live with their problem for a while -- Trump's going to be around 4 more years.
1
Mitch Landrieu, if indeed the Democrats take back the White House, please find a way to fill a powerful position in that administration, your country needs you.
Or at least that part of my country that has missed listening to a speech and feeling uplifted, like we belong, like the future can be one of peace and intelligence and...
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
"there is no obvious alternative, especially for many of the state’s African-American voters"
Since when can black americans only vote for black candidates? They can't decide who the BEST person may be?
3
This is Joe Biden's swan song. He is now in major denial saying that he is the front runner and our best chance to beat Trump.
Losing three primaries in a row ( he will lose Nevada and very possibly narrowly win South Carolina if he is lucky, his firewall) does not inspire confidence.
We need to win and the stakes are way too high to pick anyone but someone who can deliver.
Mike Bloomberg is a street fighter. He was the mayor of our most diverse city for 12 years and has seen it all.
He will not only take down Trump, our goal, but make him suffer. He will answer fire with fire and the psychopath and his criminal friends will twist and burn.
As he said, I am from NY. I know a con man.
And he knows how to take down a con man.
Trump has destroyed not only our country but earned a place as the greatest enemy of America ever.
He must be destroyed. It cannot be close. It must be a massive, total repudiation.
Mike has done the impossible. He is now devoting all of his resources to get this done.
It will be his greatest philanthropic gift to America and the world.
Mike will get it done.
2
Obvious it seemed 10-12 months ago that Biden might best have chosen, endorsed, financed, mentored someone half his age as Dem candidate for Presidency, to assume role as eminence grise to that administration victorious Nov 2020.
Biden isn't the reason other candidates dropped out or didn't. He was never a good candidate from a voter's perspective but you folks in the media just couldn't stop harping on his "electability" (which is nonsense).
If anyone drove other candidates out and have created confusion it is the media, not the candidates. This obsession with elections, for two years before it happens, has got to stop.
You all spend less time talking about policy proposals and more talking about personalities or imagined ideologies and fitting what is happening into your existing narratives. Better you learn to see what is right in front of you than looking in the rear view mirror all the time.
You all created Hillary as a candidate of invincibility and then spent the last months before the election ripping her apart over nothing of substance. You're doing it again with Biden and this idiotic never ending search for some centrist who can carry the day. (hint: that hasn't happened since Bill Clinton).
I've given up on the press as reliable sources of information on candidates. Not because you are biased against one or the other, though some of you are, but because you have collectively lost the ability to report what is actually happening.
3
This election is totally up for grabs and will remain so until the last dog fight. The Dems had too many people debating, talked about health too much, seemed disorganized, had some very bad candidates (Williamson = kook), were scared by the boogy man (Current Occupant), jumped too fast to run a totally different candidate (Pete), forgot we are in a crises, too many ole creaky men (not inspiring), oh well it's a long time until the election. At least it is not boring.
Sober article, that said it seems like writers rotate their ideas to the pulse of Americans, pro, anti, foe, friend, etc to insure and help justify there job and audience. I wish more article authors would just stick to one theme, scope, or one idea instead of playing this Russian roulette and maybe they could help end this divide
This is a really interesting piece. Thank you. I’ve seen this so often in life, business, etc. too; don’t bow out just because it seems like everyone thinks you’re making a fool of yourself or thinks you would lose. Tenacity and daring are often rewarded in this world.
It's not a question about who I or the general readership of The New York Times will vote for. For most Times' reader, that's been asked and answered.
The question is who those outside our precious political bubbles will vote for.
Americans on the whole don't vote; they follow the crowd and hope they're on the winning side. Whoever is best in the role of the tough-minded, plain-spoken winner usually ends up the winner. Classic self-fulfilling delusion is our political culture.
Trump has proven his prowess at annihilating reality. But he can't do it alone. He needs an enemy he can destroy as a spectacle that mesmerizes the crowd and satisfies their sadistic streak.
Democrats have nominated Stevenson, Kennedy, Johnson, Humphrey, McGovern, Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Obama, Hillary Clinton. Losing Republicans were certifiable losers: Nixon to Kennedy, Goldwater to LBJ, Ford to Carter, Bush I and Dole to Clinton, Romney and McCain to Obama.
Do any of the present Democratic contenders "Feel Your Pain" or have "The Audacity of Hope"? Did Obama win or Romney and McCain lose? Ditto Bush I/Dole, Ford and Goldwater.
Sanders is an iceberg of unknowns. His wife is an albatross waiting to be hung around his neck. He can't control his own team. Whoever he attracts to the polls is massively offset by those who'll turnout against him. (See Ruy Teixeira/WashPost).
Sanders is Dukakis w/o governing experience, another "angry" outsider like Trump.
3
No thanks, we're good. Both Klobuchar and Buttigieg would be excellent choices. In fact, they'd make an outstanding ticket. No need for Biden. No need for 'what if purple elephants flew'?
Dear David to answer your question "Did Biden Scare Off Our Next President?" No Joe didn't scare off your next President, Bernie is still in the race.
4
The problem is the strucutre of the contest. All states should vote one the same day and it should not start until the year of the election. This whole process is just a money machine for the media so it will never stop.
4
" ... the current campaign mired in uncertainty..." What kind of nonsense is that? In Week 2 of a major league baseball season, nit even into May, would you say the pennant race was "mired in uncertainty"? About four minutes into the Super Bowl, would you say the outcome was "mired in uncertainty"? Ten minutes into the movie "1917" would you say the plot was "mired in uncertainty"? After the Dunkerque evacuation, would you have said WWII was "mired in uncertainty"? You need to take the "uncertainty" meme out to the woods somewhere and set it free. Whether it comes back to you is ... um... mired in uncertainty.
I have no idea what I'm having for dinner tonight, but I'm not exactly mired in uncertainty about it.
[I want brownie points for refraining from saying, "Fake meme."]
3
Unpredictable - that's putting it mildly. I'm sure there are political scientists strewn throughout the United States, who are pulling their hair out, saying one thing and these crazy political times proving them wrong.
I'll never forget one of my poly-sci professors at the University of Florida predicting in 1980, we had seen the end of the two term presidency. At least, George H.W. Bush proved him wrong. Otherwise, I bet he wish he could have that lecture back.
What, having 15 candidates to choose from wasn't enough?
Elizabeth Warren had signed Senator Barbara Boxer’s 2013 then secret letter agreement amongst all women Democratic Senators not to challenge Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Presidential nominee bid. Elizabeth would never have broken that 2013 contract. Hillary the Anointed One was always thus unencumbered.
1
If you want to be president, you need to run. If you don't want to be president, stay away.
1
The only one who won’t be scared off is Bernie Saunders, and he will beat Trump. Vote for Healthcare for All or get King Trump crowned again.
3
The Democratic party is too picky and unforgiving. Bloomberg has bent over backwards to apologize to African American voters for stop and frisk. Imagine Donald Trump apologizing for anything or admitting he was wrong. But still some African Americans such as Charles Blow who I respect immensely do not allow themselves to cut Bloomberg a little slack. And Hillary Clinton was convicted by many in her own party for allegations and abuses even if true do not compare in any way to Trump's. The democratic party often resembles in its search for purity a circular firing squad where no one is left standing. Sometimes we are our worst enemies.
2
If a tree fell in the forest and no one was there to hear it, would several left and right Times pundits clock in on why that happened, and what they would do to fix it? Asking for readers, a lonely nation turns its eyes to you...
What are you talking about? At one point there were 29 name Dems running.
People simply underestimated the huge disadvantage that Joe Biden was at with the primary season kicking off with 2 small white states... but Biden still looks like a strong candidate, at least compared to the others who are left. Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Warren will all be eliminated after Super Tuesday, distilling the field down to a 3-way race between Biden, Bloomberg, and Sanders... three white men in their late 70s. I think Biden comes out on top of that tussle, as both Bloomberg and Sanders have bigger drawbacks than Joe does.
Biden's old and washed up, and his entry into the race and the immediate presumption by the Democratic Party that he was the front runner exhibited exactly the same kind of entitlement that resulted in Hillary Clinton's failure to campaign hard in the upper Midwest and Pennsylvania at the tail end of the 2016 race. And what does Biden have to offer? I don't know. He's often inarticulate. He trips over his words. The one thing I do hear him say is Obama, and I liked President Obama, but he's not Barack Obama he's Joe Biden.
2
I just read a headline:
“Democrats are accusing Bloomberg of trying to buy the election.”
A question isn’t whether this is a correct statement,
The question would be who is selling the elections.
2
It seems strange to me that anyone would consider Joe Biden to be a "strong" candidate for school board let alone POTUS.
1
No, but he (and media coverage of him) suffocated Michael Bennet, who would have been a great moderate candidate.
1
Sanders is not Che'
He will definitely compromise when necessary, as he has before. He will beat Donald Trump. He will also, make a great President. IMHO
5
this is an interesting question. unfortunately, it also seems to fall in that crop of articles from the Dem establishment and their media appendages that seem to have decided they know best what voters want or ought to want.
i've not followed democratic nomination politics for long, but i don't recall one where the establishment and its media friends were in such a frenzy to discredit a potential nominee as "unelectable."
its really amazing to watch this paper and the corresponding tv channels, CNN and especially MSNBC.
every single day, literally, they have some version of X or Y must not be allowed to be the nominee.
yet, the last candidate to lose was precisely the type they now feverishly recommend.
everyday, they write and talk as if Hillary Clinton beat Trump!!
7
Honestly this column is very depressing. I had been hoping Mitch Landrieu would enter the race. His inspiring speech reminded me of Obama's speech at the Democratic national convention in 2004. As I am formerly from MA I had a lot of respect for Deval Patrick and wanted him to run. I regret not supporting Cory Booker and now he is gone. But good grief there were I think 23 candidates starting this race and what a mess it now is. It is insane for all the time, ink and money that flows into Iowa and NH when they are so little and white like me. African-Americans are our strongest constituency and we have yet to hear from them. Even if Bernie were to beat Trump then what? Too risky to even contemplate. I have switched allegiances so many times I don't know whether I am coming or going. Is this any way to gather the forces necessary to beat Trump? I hope Biden drops out asap for the good of the country.
4
When is someone going to be brave enough to state the obvious? A Jewish candidate will lose too many votes we cannot afford in this upcoming election. I come from a Jewish family, who are proud of that--from my 96-year-old father down to his 1-year-old great grandson. This is not the time. The same is true for a woman, unless it is the wife of a previous sitting president. And maybe even then. We need a straight, white male, with short hair. Joe Biden is the only one possible at the moment. He will win votes the other candidates will lose. And he knows how to work both sides of the aisle, which we will also need if (hope, hope) if he is elected. If anyone has the courage to say this, it is you, Mr. Leonhardt. Please!
2
@Elizabeth Reed, I am Jewish, too. Ultimately, I don't think that being a Jew is a disqualifier. Or a woman. Or a person of color (where did they all go, by the way?) I think being too progressive for "the heartland" is a disqualifier; I think being too timid is, too. We need a path, a track, whatever one calls it, pulling forward between moderate and progressive; call it the realist path. From where I sit, the best "man" on that path is a woman, Amy Klobuchar. She has Biden's qualifications, plus the energy he lacks. We have other good options, but at this moment, I think she's our best hope. Biden is not, and I wish I didn't feel that way.
If diversity can’t win then what’s the point? If only an old white Christian male can win then it will only be Republicans from now on. Of course, people said the same thing about Obama and he won two terms with significant majorities.
2
@ElizabethReed you make some excellent points.
If you really think you would serve the country well as president, give your pitch and see if it lands in the hearts of voters. Down with polling, statistics, and predictions. Real change comes from conviction and sincerity. That is what voters are truly after. And you should only consider running if you think you have those.
3
Why do voters seek an alternative to Biden. He was Obama's choice for Vice President, and Obama was a great president, unlike the current one. Biden would do most of the same things Obama did - provide the basis for a strong economy, protect the rights of humans and the environment, improve health care, and give us hope for the future again - what's wrong with that? We do not know what we would be getting with any other candidate, except for Trump, and we don't want that!
6
@Hah Biden is not Obama. Not even close.
2
@Hah!
Because voters recognize Biden is NOT Obama?
Because Biden hasn’t made a compelling case to voters?
Because he tried to argue doing things the way he did it in the Senate - compromising with segregationists/racists on busing - is a valid approach today when the extremists on the right have demonstrated they are determined to drive our country to become an unjust, corrupt oligarchy, kleptocracy and/or theocracy?
Because a lot of voters aren’t swallowing the “most electable” nonsense many are dishing out ... rightly so given what we saw in IA and NH?
Any number of reasons, really.
2
@Hah!
Except Biden is showing his age. He and I are the same age and I know I could not endure the strain of the Presidency and do a respectable job. I need to many naps.
As a data driven guy, Bloomberg probably conducted extensive polling which indicated that he had little chance of winning as long as Biden was viable. Also his intuition probably told him that a 78 yo white male multi billionaire with stop and frisk, he would have significant challenges capturing the Democratic nomination given the current woke energy in the party and the media.
He wasn’t interested in taking a “flyer” as suggested by the article because if he ran he was going to deploy an enormous amount of resources never seen before in American politics. So he bided his time, all the while preparing the sophisticated juggernaut we are witnessing today.
In the meantime the polls continued to show Biden as a strong front runner. But the warning signals continued to accumulate . Halting debate performances. Mediocre fundraising. Poor organization. Weak, responses to Ukraine. As these harbingers accumulated, it became clear Biden was vulnerable and so Bloomberg pushed the button.
The opportunity costs of missing the early primaries are probably overrated. In the case of Iowa they were non-existent. Whether Bloomberg will be successful is an open question. We’ll begin to see at his first debate (if he debates). That will be rough. It’s not his milieu and Mike will be facing the firing squad giving Bernie yet another pass. But Mike will be prepared. If he holds his own he has a punchers chance on Super Tuesday especially if Biden bombs in SC.
5
Lets look at it this way, 2016 election, not one trans-formative candidate. No one with real charisma on either side. Trump ends up bullying his way to a strategic win, losing the popular vote, certainly not a mandate of any sort. That said, he caters to his base, rather than bring the country together.
Flash forward to 2020, Bernies doing the same old thing, Biden's lost his fight, Warren can't make up her mind after trying to take Bernies platform, Mayor Pete is a bright guy, but not yet ready for prime time, Amy who? That's what we have left other than Bloomberg who joined in when he saw Biden could no longer carry water.
So as far as I can see, in order for Democrats to win this thing and it is still possible, the party has to stop eating its' own. That includes Michael Bloomberg. He got lots of people to sign the petitions to get on the ballots, same as everyone else. He's not out begging for money and frankly, I find that refreshing. No wine caves, no $10,000 a plate rubber chicken dinners, no begging for crowd funded shekels. In my opinion, he's the only one who can go head to head with Trump and beat him at his own game.
Enough for the hostility against your fellow candidates, stand on your own two feet, because I see anything but charisma at the moment. Maybe one of you might get inspired.
8
@Bill Bernie's supporters, including me, are long term. The kids are new, and the wild card in this game. We are passionate supporters, defending him from 'cancelation' by this paper and major network actors. The man marched, governed, inspires and perseveres. He'll win if he's the nominee.
5
@Mike Murphy If Bernie wins the impact on down ballots in the next election will be devastating. None of his policies will be enacted and will thus seen as ineffective. In response, Democrats will loose House and Senate seats.
1
Bloomberg doesn’t attend events in the wine cave, he owns the wine cave. I’m not sure that’s really all that refreshing. He was a great mayor and would probably be a great president, but he should have run as a moderate Republican.
2
It's hard to accept the proposition that Biden scared other Democrats off when almost two dozen of them threw their hats into the ring, vying for the party's nomination.
4
There's enough baloney here to choke a horse. First off, Biden didn't "scare Bloomberg out of South Carolina." He entered the race too late to have a chance for the early primaries, and he's trying to buy the nomination anyway, instead of having to work for it (following Trump's example). Second off, it wasn't Democratic voters who anointed Biden the front-runner -- it was the media and its polling, which, as usual, got everything wrong. And if Mr. Leonhardt had to make all the fundraising calls and do a half dozen campaign events every day, he might understand why abysmal showings in the polls would convince one to drop out. Pundits, please stop with the horse race cleverness and start concentrating on real issues, please.
17
It’s true.
If Obama had remained in the Senate for a full term or two, he would have been just another senator and lost whatever mystique/cache he had.
3
I doubt 10% of anyone who still might be interested could have named the head of the DNC. No leadership is the main reason for the coming debacle
3
The Democrats in power have a terrible habit of deciding that candidacy should be taken in turns, and they throw their support behind whichever candidate's "turn" it is. As often as not, this has not worked well for them. It failed with John Kerry, it failed with Hillary Clinton, and it is failing with Jor Biden. Those pesky voters keep getting in the way!
9
I wish someone would write about the Bernie campaign and compare it to George McGovern’s campaign in 1972. I was in the Army then so I didn’t see a lot of news but Sanders campaign and supporters remind me a lot of McGovern’s. Many people rallied around McGovern because of his views on Vietnam and also because Nixon was not very likable. In a lot of ways Nixon was the Trump of the 70’s. Despite his heroic service during WW2 McGovern was painted as a liberal whack job, and possibly a communist, and was soundly defeated by Nixon. A lot of voters didn’t like Nixon, but were afraid of McGovern and his “liberal” ideas. Are democrats going down this road again?
10
@Flyer Don, it seems that way - and I wish we weren't. But how do we stop the circular firing squads? Please, media, good guys as well as bad: it isn't a horse race, or a smackdown; cover the issues! It's our country's future, our choice between democracy and fascism. It's that simple!!!
1
Pete, Bloomberg, Biden and Hillary are all cut from the same cloth. Support for Corporations Big Money and the 1%.
Corruption as usual will not win this race. Wake up and read the Polls, listen to the Public. Why do you think Hillary lost in 16, and Bernie and Warren got so much grass roots support?
10
This column didn't mention another moderate drop-out in response to Joseph Biden. I'm talking about Sen. Sherrod Brown. He's smart and kind and I think even a better speaker than John F. Kennedy was. I think he could when over the progressives and some conservative who don't want Trump. I also think he is the only Democrat who could beat Trump.
10
@Ellen, please show me the scenario that brings in a dark horse at this late date. I like Sen. Brown. (I miss Sen. Booker, too.)
@CP show me the scenario that has any of the currrent dems beating trump....it is late.....and in all likelihood won't happen...but if somehow sen. brown were to be convinced to run and get the support of the democratic establishment and financial support...who knows...maybe it could happen at a brokered convention
Journalists and news organizations might look to themselves as to why both Clinton and Biden’s political might were over-hyped. Biden was the “clear leader” in this race, months before any voting took place ...? Now Bernie Sanders has been the front runner for a while but the news seems more focused on its own surprise that Biden isn’t.
I don’t know what it will mean for sales, ratings or ad revenues, but I’d recommend giving the Democratic process room to breathe.
6
There were already twenty who entered, that was not enough?
2
This weekend we had dinner with a disenchanted Republican Trump supporter, a new American citizen who has held a green card for two decades (and follows politics) voting for the first time, an Independent woman, and an avowed Democrat.
A very thoughtful discussion occurred re the candidates.
Surprisingly,at this point, every one agreed Bloomberg has the best chance of beating Trump...and they all will vote for him. If he isn’t the nominee, the Republican will again vote for Trump (more $ in his pocket) and the rest for the Democratic candidate.
Never would have guessed it.
2
Let us hope Super Tuesday will give some shape to the Democratic search for a candidate. I will vote for any Democrat. I will vote for anyone who is not Donald J. Trump.
4
People always cite the national Sanders vs Trump numbers to argue that Sanders can win, but popular vote isn't how the President is elected. I'd argue that citing those numbers is indeed silly.
3
@Matt, agreed. Go deeper; show us where the numbers are and how that affects the archaic but still-in-force electoral college. That's where the election will be won or lost. (Ref: 2016, to America's great shame.)
"Crucially, Democrats in 2018, especially the successful ones, did not run on particularly radical programs but rather on opposition to Trump himself, and to unpopular GOP actions on economic policy and health care (tax cuts for the rich and efforts to repeal Obamacare’s protections, for example)."
Let this message NOT BE LOST.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/no-radical-policies-wont-drive-election-winning-turnout/2020/02/14/07a0b602-4e97-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html
3
Not buying the argument that thee were too FEW candidates in the Democratic primarry. Good grief, it took two stages and two nights to accommodate all the candidates in the first few debates.
6
Bloomberg is not a moderate Democrat. He’s a Republican plutocrat
10
“History tells us that candidates more often win by running early than by waiting their turn. The risk is not in running too soon. It’s in running too late and missing your opportunity.”
This is spot on. Moreover, the candidate needed to be chosen 18 months ago. Moreover, the candidate can not be a politician.
Individual candidates needed to suppress their selfish desire to be president as they know they cannot win They can touch campaign funds, however, their real motivation.
If the Dems had chosen a celebrity front runner 18 months ago Trump would be defeated, easily. Now, Trump will be the next president.
American are out of touch with what is possible Sanders and Bloomberg are Jewish. There is enough anti semitism within the voting dem population to keep either from being elected. Sanders and Bloomberg know this and are running, cynically. Americans are in a Paul Bowles novel: they think they know what is going on....... but are about to be destroyed.
The idea that Michael Bloomberg should be president is ridiculous. The idea has no more quality than wishing Trump were president.
Democratic voters learned nothing from the last election and for this reason Trump will win. American voters do not know how to vote; they must be taught. Unfortunately, there is no one to teach them.
2
Democratic voters learned not to have a lazy coronation like they did with Hillary in 2016 and that’s why it feels messy this time. There are many candidates supporting a wide spectrum of ideas. May the strongest candidate win, whoever it is and come out battle-tested and ready for the general election.
2
@Douglas said, "There is no one to teach them." I think it's time for President Obama to come out of hiding and be our teacher. Please!
1
@Andy That could perhaps be true if that process was 18 months ago. It is just the wrong timing for a win, is all.
But aren't those other Democrats kept away from the debates if they haven't raised a certain amount of money? Too much depends on money! Legislate out "Citizens United"!
5
By this logic I suggest AOC run in 2024. In fact, maybe she should just hop into 2020 and ask Bernie to step aside.
1
@Ryan, trouble is she's not old enough yet.
1
Thank you, Mr. Leonhardt, for this column. When pollsters call and ask me who my choice is, I refuse to answer. I have a choice, for sure, but WHOEVER is the Democratic candidate against our current resident will have my enthusiastic support, right down to phone-banking and canvasing. We MUST take our government away from this awful bunch of--dare I say--Fascists.
1
I doubt that Buttigieg will be a serious candidate by the end of the month. Young people don't like him. Black people don't like him. He's too young and inexperienced. And there's the First Gentleman thing, which would show up stronger on the secret ballot than it will in a poll. That's a lot of subtractions.
3
“Every Democrat to be elected president in the past half century — Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter — started as a long shot, as did a couple of Republicans (Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan).”
Well if history tells us long shots win then what does that tell us about Sanders? He has not been a long shot. He and Biden have been the favorites since the beginning.
Bloomberg is just teaching us how cheaply or dearly the Democratic Party will sell its soul.
Bloomberg is an authoritarian oligarch and has acted like one over his entire career.
Just ask the 64 women who have accused him of sexual harassment or misconduct.
Or the hundreds of thousands of largely innocent young Black and Latino men terrorized under the nakedly racist policy of "Stop and Frisk" that transformed their communities into police states under Bloomberg's direction.
Don't be misled by his donations to worthy causes. That is just Bloomberg doing what he has always done -- buying loyalty or silence to enhance his. Likewise his endorsements by various Mayors, virtually every one of which has personally benefitted from his willingness to share a tiny fraction of his wealth.
Money is seductive. Too many Democrats are announcing their availability to be seduced. But Bloomberg's money will not beat the genuine enthusiasm of Trump's supporters or drown out his capacity as President and Tweeter-in-Chief to command the country's attention. Nor will it conceal Bloomberg's many serious deficiencies not yet apparent to those who live outside New York who have only gotten to know him through his recent massive ad buys.
9
@Christopher, I agree.
1
Bloomberg! Where would Bloomberg be in this race without his money? The presidency should not be for sale!
7
Can’t swing from one extreme to another. This country is already divided being polarized enough. We need a centrist and a moderate to UNITE this country and RESET what was normal.
Our institutions, our laws have been ripped apart and shredded. This is that not the United States of America today. We need to reset

Not fear of Biden. It has been fear of Bernie all along. The clueless Blue leadership refuses to accept that Bernie is the leader, the people's choice, the only hope to attract the disenfranchised away from trump. The rich Blues are afraid of real change for the better. Clueless.
6
@Dave, I'm a believer too.
1
No! No! No! The campaigns are far too long, money should not be spent on them, (let everyone make up their own minds by doing their own research, watch the debates and read the NYT and other non fake newspapers) and the idea that people need to get in the race even earlier than they are is exhausting to even imagine. The whole “perfect” phone call on Biden was on July 25 more than a year before we vote for the next president. Enough is enough. We don’t need more we need much less.
1
if you have never seen it, you should watch "The Best Man" (1964) with Henry Fonda and Cliff Robertson, which plays out the scenario of a Presidential nomination reminiscent of this article. It is one of the best movies ever made about American politics and, as Mr. Leonhardt shows, something similar might transpire in 2020.
It isn’t over until it is over. I don’t believe Biden is done with, as much as I like a woman in the White House, I believe Biden is in the race, and can beat Trump.
Yet another of the 1%'s "mainstream" media pushing for a so-called "moderate" Democratic candidate. No mention of Bernie Sanders (perish the thought)!
6
“ Or imagine if Cory Booker or Kamala Harris, instead of quitting the race, had adopted a version of John McCain’s 2008 strategy. Like them, McCain entered the race as a potential front-runner, only to struggle.” I was with you until I reached this sentence. Your entire essay assumes that respect for Biden was so great that everybody backed off and that he has stumbled all on his own. But Harris and Booker and pundits who wanted one of them to win were on the cutting edge of attacking Biden as if he were some sort of Godzilla who needed to be hit with nuclear weapons from the moment he entered the race. Part of what ails the Biden candidacy is the relentless months-long attack on him from just about every corner of pundit-land and from every part of the debate stage. By the time Rudy Giuliani launches his campaign against Hunter Biden, Joe Biden had cuts and bruises all over him from pundits and fellow Democrats. The wonder is that even after all that, Biden still has a path to the nomination and has a chance to silence his critics (at least for a second) in Nevada.
Why doesn't anyone talk about managerial skills when talking about qualifications for a President? The skills of running a city are the skills of running a country.
I give both Mayor Pete and Mayor Mike kudos on this account. Steyer and Pete for his managerial ability to build a company.
NYT, I wish you would investigate on this angle.
If true, this disqualifies them anyhow.
1
No one can win this thing before the Convention. Of the “survivors” still on the island, all, except maybe Biden, have enough organization staying power to remain in the race until high noon in Milwaukee. Proportionate allocation of delegates guarantees no one can gain a majority. Plus so called “Super Delegates” cannot vote in the first round. All but guarantees a raucous, multi vote Convention. And what if no deal can be struck? Do the losers walk? In 1924, Democrats divided between Southern Jim Crowe delegates and Northern big city immigrant bosses, needed over 100 votes to nominate a ticket. Wasn’t worth much.
Biden should drop out! It’s selfish for him to run at this point. His campaign is falling apart. That will pave the way for Klobuchar or Bloomberg.
1
I would have to say, very few "Moderate Republicans" are going to vote for anyone but Trump. It's just a fact. So we better be looking towards the Independent-voters, who make up 42% of the registered voters.
In 2016, when the Progressive Democrats had the courage to nominate Bernie Sanders to go up against the 1% CEO/investment-crowd's candidate, a full 75% of all Democratic-voters under age 50 voted for Sanders!
Today: Sanders is the #1 choice of Latino voters, and reaminst the number one choice of young voters, including #1 choice of young black voters.
And Senator Sanders crushes Trump by 18 points among Independent voters. Source: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/11/sanders-crushes-trump-18-points-among-independent-voters-new-national-general
5
Agreed, mostly (while Landrieu may have given a “soaring” speech that may have helped him in SC, I don’t know that he had the chops for a national campaign. I’ve known him for years and, well, he’s more of a regional flavor). But, I agree in general and I also agree with other commenters about candidates who believe it is “their turn” to be President. That never works. Hillary, twice, tried to scare others out of the race, it didn’t work in ‘08, it did in ‘16 but left her wounded. Mondale, Gore, Dukakis, Kerry and on the R side, Dole and McCain, all thought they had done enough “duty” for their party to be anointed the nominee.
The media loves to make hay about “two nights of debates” with so many candidates. But, I think America kind of likes the “American Idol” style elimination rounds. And, good for the DNC in paring back “eligibility”. If you can’t hit donor numbers or poll numbers, you aren’t invited to debate (and Bloomberg’s self funding is going to have to be addressed in the future as Bezos, Zuckerberg and others might decide to self finance).
Should Biden have sat this one out? It’s a free country. It’s becoming apparent that Biden will be out a third or fourth time.
1
African Americans vote as a block. The question in my mind isn't why but how. What are their queues? Is it word of mouth? Media outlets? Church groups? Is it a strong tradition within black communities to vote with their peers? This is especially important during democratic primaries. General elections, not so much. The Republican Party has an abysmal record on civil rights. So what drives the black vote?
1
What does this suggest about the 2020 race? First, that we should have implemented stringed campaign finance reform in the 1970s after Watergate. Second, that despite all this journalistic huffing and puffing about the election, it's already been decided. By Putin and his friends in the Kremlin. We need to reckon with the disappearance of our political system, since the Russians successfully planted a president in the White House, as we are still bragging about planting astronauts on the moon in 1969...and 45 could care less about the U.S. constitution and U.S. code for that matter.
2
VP Biden had name recognition and association with President Obama but his negatives were apparent to many:
Alienation of women over his handling, or should I write dismissal of Anita Hill's allegations. This is something for which he never really apologized. His "creepy uncle" attention to women came out even later.
His advocacy for a draconian personal bankruptcy regime while calling himself a "union man." Actually, it undercut his whole common man persona.
His advocacy for more incarceration in his crime bill.
His disastrous work in Iraq.
His national campaigning has never been stellar, or even inspiring, but sub-par. Eight years, ago, he was unbelievably condescending to candidate Obama, Before that he stole lines from a British politician.
Many pundits expected VP Biden to self destruct but never seemed to grasp the tenor of the times.
4
Who cares. The best candidate in 2016 was Bernie Sanders, who was done in by the Clinton Machine and its minions. The best candidate in 2020, Bernie Sanders. Biden is irrelevant and fading fast.
7
The juxtaposition of Sanders and Warren as the two embattled “progressive” left candidates is a fascinating case study of media obfuscation and an effort by the rest of the left of center “moderates” to divide-and-rule, with the ultimate outcome being that one of the moderates emerges as the Chosen One. Thus, Bernie is a socialist and Liz is a capitalist (to her bones). In reality, the “socialism vs capitalism” debate is a false binary. All countries are hybrid systems driven by varying degrees of shared-interests and self-interest. However, if reduced to digestible sound-bites, as all campaigns must, Liz Warren’s consistent position has been that, while she “neither embraces nor rejects socialism,” her focus is to “reboot capitalism.” This is her main message and the rest is the flotsam of actionable detail in the arena of political compromise. Eventually, the combined Sanders-Warren base will be joined with the energetic followers of the moderate left (including Bloomberg) to defeat Trump. The Chosen One will be some combination of Warren-Sanders and Bloomberg. Politics makes for strange bedfellows.
1
Interesting, but when all's said and done, Hillary owns the machinery and the race is escaping her control.
Senator Sanders, for all his single-mindedness, remains the brightest hope we have to not only win, but to have a real, old-fashioned Democrat in the office. Forget the "socialist" garbage the DNC Establishment would like to hang on him.
Sanders is far closer to Roosevelt than Hillary ever was!
5
I can't help but wonder if Trump's Ukraine campaign to hurt Biden didn't have some of its intended effects. Targeting Hunter Biden and forcing Joe to explain and defend his son, threw Joe off his game and made voters feel that maybe there was some truth to Trump's allegations.
Trump is great at creating doubt about the honesty of an opponent and some of that mud sticks. Remember "Crooked Hillary?" That cast enough doubt on her honesty to keep some people from the polls.
1
I appreciate the provocative discourse.
Having watched the debates, I feel you are giving Klobachar short shrift for her pragmatic approach, record and appeal to moderates. They will be the determinants in November.
1
Possibly the most famous late-comer to an election was Bobby Kennedy in '68. He caught a lot of flack for letting McCarthy test the waters against LBJ before committing himself, but that is all forgiven considering subsequent events. But here is my point: Where is Michelle Obama? Come on! She would crush the Democratic primary field and the Trumpster would be decidedly crushed. Absolutely no doubt.
1
The article seems to ignore the dollar costs of campaigning.
1
To all the Bernie fans out there: please don’t stay home on Election Day if he is not the nominee! To do so would forever mark you as silent Trumpers. Please don’t be like trump and take your toys and go home if you cannot win the game!
3
You just never know. Heck, what was George H.W. Bush’s approval rating after the First Gulf War -80%? Along comes a short recession and Ross W. Perot and the governor of Arkansas becomes president - go figure.
Biden’s fault was not running in 2016. The past four years have diminished his health & cognition. He’s not physically up to the job regardless of whether you agree with his ideology. His time has passed.
3
Attention grabbing headlines are dumbing us down - Biden and Hillary might have scared off good candidates, but they did not scare of "our Next President" because if they did not run they were never going to be our next President, unless the President dies, the Veep picks them as his/her Veep, then the new President dies elevating them to the Presidency, which is a ridiculously remote possibility.
We are in a time of misinformation and disinformation, clarity and simplicity are the only acceptable currencies of the information realm, why are all of you journalists and columnists still peddling the same old formulaic gibberish which got us into the Trump Presidency in the first place?
1
In my dreams, a locked convention decides to draft Al.
1
@Lawrence... or more logically.....sherrod or michelle
well said. i often think hillary clinton would have run if she went in 2004 instead of waiting for 08
If candidates can be "scared off"-- they should be. No backbone means bad president
3
It's the primaries! Kick the tires to get great ideas for the candidate who shows that they can run a successful campaign. A successful campaign hits ALL the places that vote because the candidate will be president of ALL of the United States of America. A successful candidate has a strategy, but seized opportunities and shifts to address them. A successful candidate draws crowds and is persuasive. A successful shows compassion and encourages of their supporters.
Continue to sort!
3
It's the primaries! Kick the tires to get great ideas for the candidate who shows that they can run a successful campaign. A successful campaign hits ALL the places that vote because the candidate will be president of ALL of the United States of America. A successful candidate has a strategy, but seized opportunities and shifts to address them. A successful candidate draws crowds and is persuasive. A successful shows compassion and encourages of their supporters.
Continue to sort!
People responding to campaign like sports fans, not responsible citizens. Who would be the best president?
3
The "elite" of the Democratic Party are simply too right-wing (pro-oligarchic-capitalism) to "fit" the needs of the masses who turned to Bernie and then to the empty-rhetoric-Trump who at least spoke to their plight.
Hillary, Obama, and the anti-Bernie current Democratic Party elites have a Potemkin Village of a party -- they want to hide the Bernie-masses-in-need behind a Biden.
Democrats need to decide if they represent the working classes and the upper and middle class who support them, or if they are simply the party of the moderate Republicans displaced when Reagan turned the Republican Party into the party of the savage oligarchs (versus the "nice oligarchs" of the Democratic Party), who rallied masses with racism, abortion, and by using right-wing media to manage the sense of resentment against the very inequality they are producing.
6
I think that this has more to do with the media than the candidates. The early focus on most candidates is not on their strengths, their policies or positions It is on the negatives especially if they are viewed by the pundits as "flawed". It is impossible today to run without having even your kindergarten record examined to determine if you had pulled someone's hair in class. Where were all of you when the amoral trump announced he would run.
7
Seriously? Didn't we have in excess of twenty-four candidates at one point, so many that we had to have debates on separate nights?
We had plenty of people from moderate Montanans to climate change activists in Washington to well-spoken and brilliant senators of color--they didn't catch on. That's how it goes. I really didn't need to see a few dozen more make an effort.
At the outset of the Trump administration, I hoped Mitch Landrieu would position himself to run because I believed he could, having sprung from the loins of the deep south himself, have led his fellows onto an inclusive and forward-looking path into the future. But what I've seen from the south since then tells me he would have gotten nowhere because they seem to have fallen in love with a phony billionaire east coaster who they think is some biblical figure named Cyrus.
Shoulda woulda coulda.
I was for Bernie, then I moved to Warren, now I'm eyeing Bloomberg. If we didn't start the next election cycle ten minutes after the last president was elected, maybe we wouldn't all be so exhausted now.
15
@CF
Does it occur to you that they didn't catch on because Biden was taking up all the oxygen in the media?
Media has a huge influence at the start, and does ever give each candidate the same fair exposure so people make up their minds.
This is extremely influential on people like you who change candidates at the drop of a hat for no ideological reason, but just because you don't want to be supporting the "losing" candidate before even one ballot has been cast.
3
I believe Mike did not run initially out of respect for Biden rather than because he did not think he could win.
There are other forces in play here.
For some candidates civility matters.
5
I totally disagree with the premise of this article. Specifically, which ideal candidate was scared off by Biden's candidacy?
I have an opposite take on Biden. I think he "took one for the team", as they say in baseball. Given his age and personal attacks on him and his family, I don't think he really wanted to run. As many people have noted, his heart doesn't seem to be in the race.
I think he waited as long as he could before he announced in hopes that someone else would emerge to challenge Trump (Bloomberg made the same calculation, by the way).
When that didn't happen, he honestly felt that with his Obama legacy, he was the only conventional politician with any hope of unseating Trump and he felt a duty to try and remove him. Basically, he was running as a placeholder.
And the Democrats owe him a huge debt of gratitude. He completely obsessed, preoccupied and distracted Trump for over a year, which ultimately led to his impeachment.
This period of Trump obsession with Biden allowed the other Democratic candidates to step up their game and develop themselves under the radar, so to speak. Sadly, none of them were able to take advantage and emerge, Obama-like, from the crowd. This is the vacuum that Bloomberg is stepping into.
I for one think that sometime next month Biden will graciously step aside in favor of Bloomberg if it appears from the early primaries that he has the momentum.
Biden single-handedly took on Trump for a year and we should all give him credit.
28
Biden first ran in a primary in 1988. He imploded. He did the same in 2008. He is doing the same in 2020. Let’s not make him the prohibitive candidate.
15
I don’t think Joe Biden scared off anyone. He has name recognition and was the VP for 8 years, but he tends to fall on so many stumbling blocks of his own making, the hint of reservation and doubt seems to hover over his campaign. I still think he would make a more effective senior statesman than a president.
An exciting and eye opening presidential debate would be between Trump and Bloomberg. Let’s be honest here – Bloomberg is every Trump never was. He served as mayor of NYC for 3 terms, he is a self-made billionaire, is extremely smart and creative, and is a shrewd and sharp businessman who understands the complexities of the market. Whereas Trump, on the other hand, inherited his wealth from his father, never held public office, clearly doesn’t understand the complexities of the market, and makes rash, snap judgments, usually based on emotion.
I think of all the candidates, Bloomberg could mop up the debate floor with Trump. He’s a seasoned and polished businessman and politician. Of all the candidates, I think he has the strongest chance of beating Trump.
But that said, my heart and head still stands with Pete Buttigieg. I love his energy, his stand on a plethora of policies, I love his age. I think he is a breath of fresh air and could be a very effective president, especially if Amy Klobuchar was his running mate.
In the end, I will vote Democrat, even if Bernie Sanders manages to pull it off. Sorry, but he’s just not my cup of tea.
21
@Marge Keller I'm not at all interested in having to vote for Bloomberg though I’m seeing what you’re seeing about his being able to mop the floor with Trump in a debate. Like most people, I’ve been picturing various candidates in that scenario. But, why should we believe that Trump will even debate? I doubt he’ll have the inclination or the guts. He’ll say the debates are rigged or that he has more important things to do.
14
@Marge Keller
Where's the guarantee there will be debates? Maybe only one. There are no rules.
2
@Marge Keller
I have not forgiven him for taking down Hillary and giving us Trump. He did as little as possible to help her, and had his eyes on the next election. For that, he won’t get my vote.
Everyone else will.
I wish I could convince Steyer and Bloomberg to just get it over with and purchase the election for Warren or Amy. We would probably get Booker and Harris as part of the bargain. Imagine what a trifling 3-4 hundred million would do for the Biden campaign. Though I would prefer Hillary and she did win the popular vote by a staggering 3 million votes, it might cost more in advertising to get the well entrenched Bernie Sanders establishment to tone it down a few decibels. Quite a few.
3
@Tom Daley Bloomberg is the best bet for the Dems. His assets outweigh any other candidates. Executive experience in running a world class company and a world class city for 3 terms. Education and experience in all aspects of the economy. Funding for his campaign. Other candidates always try and downplay the assets their competitors have so Bernie and Liz attacking his Billions is expected. Why demean success that he earned? He did not start with Trumps silver spoon in his mouth but used is cunning, intelligence and executive skills to become wealthy. EVERY candidate is trying to buy the election that will take at least a billion dollars to win. All we are arguing about is how it will be funded. Bernie and Liz are beholden to the bottom 20%. Pete is beholden to a few big donors. Amy is raising money for her campaign which will undoubtedly create some obligations later on. The only unencumbered and uninfluenced candidate is Bloomberg.
@Michael
Bloomberg, "Unencumbered" by the interests of "the bottom 20%".
You inadvertently put your finger on what's *wrong* with Bloomberg. He in no way has the interests of the working class at heart.
1
This reminds me of ‘The Three Bears’: too hot, too cold, just right. Too rich, too old, too young, too afraid ( of Trump). Nibble, nibble nibble. It’s all too much. There is no just right. Everyone (not just politicians) has flaws. Come on, settle down. Support your candidate and stop Trump. Period.
24
@Mike Here, here!
1
Totally agree with this analysis. If the supposedly libel press would stop with the doom and gloom, and people would just give the race a chance to settle down, a front runner will emerge and then we can all back her or him. give the process a chance. All is not lost.
14
Just because it is in the New York Times does not mean it is right, although most often it is. :)
What is most worrisome is Trump has a chance of being reelected. This is very telling as to where we are as a nation. It is also telling that other countries, especially in the Eurozone and Canada, are staying as far away from Trump as possible, and therefore the United States. Like it or not, we live in a world where many nations are our equals, both economically and otherwise.
Trump needs to defeated, however the outcome this nation needs to reinvent itself. We have lost our way. Thanks to Citizens United and gerrymandering money has too much influence in who gets elected and this must change.
Further, we the citizens must hold our office holders accountable for getting long-term results. Congress passes legislation and then moves on. There is no mechanism to measure results and make adjustments as necessary except the vote and in our current environment votes are legally purchased by slick advertising and legally bribery.
14
@sbanicki your post causes me to muse whether the Bloomberg approach--i. e., using one's own money--is a way to break the Citizens United stranglehold on elections. That does assume the candidate doing so has benevolent motives.
6
This analysis has much truth to it. In a larger sense it demonstrates that the more traditional left/center part of the Democratic Party has gotten stale in thinking. Its members, though they are different on some specifics, share a common feature that is a view of the political world as static. For example, as Leonhardt points out: Biden is best known, he is the front runner, the smart money is behind him. Or take another, an error by Sen. Harris: school integration was a hot issue when I was growing up, so it must be the way to get at Biden now. Or, take one that Mr. Trump rejected strongly: America is bound to decline relatively speaking due to globalization, so we cannot expect better GDP growth (a corollary to this is we must raise taxes to pay for programs), but this is based on the economic theory of comparative advantage, which assumes truly free and fair trade. Or, take one of the biggest errors, by Mrs. Clinton in 2016: the districts carried by Obama/Biden in the mid-west will remain in my column by default, so I should campaign in places where I have already won and where I will get the most national media coverage (duh, it isn't a National election, it is state-by-state).
1
Jumping to the conclusion Biden wins the 2020 Democratic nomination changed the candidate pool in 2019. Regrettably jumping to an early conclusion about Biden's candidacy appears to have not hampered DJT in any way and may have improved DJT re-election chances in November.
4
I'm beginning to think that the only person that can beat Trump - is Trump. None of these candidates is singularly strong enough to steam roll this guy - and it will have to be a critical mass of those who say: "Anyone but Trump"
And even that may not get it done.
8
@David
Trump is probably his own worst enemy.
This month is probably the high water mark for Trump. The acquittal, some good economic news and no war with Iran. If the election were held today, Trump would have an excellent chance at reelection.
The political landscape can and will change by November. Whether it will change to allow a Democrat to win is up in the air, but this election will be very close. A repeat of Trump victories in the Midwest is tough to imagine.
7
@David Michael Bloomberg has been in the same fights and won a lot more significantly and ethically than Trump. Any fight with Trump won't be pretty. I really think he is the only one that can beat Trump. The ONLY way that Bloomberg does not measure up to Trump is height and Trump lost that tweet battle. Money= Bloomberg success/winning= Bloomberg Sanity=Bloomberg. The biggest danger the Dems face is a strong showing by Bernie and then his followers choose not to vote again or vote for the Green candidate. The problem with Bernie is he can't beat Trump. Trump would crush him.
11
@Michael
I don't disagree. I just hope Bloomberg's hail mary pass strategy is a winner. We will see.
1
I don't know why all the hand-wringing. It's going to be Pete. He's the only one who can beat Trump - I'd put money on it. I just wish he would reconnect with the authenticity he had at the beginning and is starting to lose through repetition. He has the talent to win and the energy needed to do all the work that will be involved in cleaning up the mess the current administration is going to leave behind.
3
@Carrie Pete will win in 2032. He will be a great secretary of state, secy of defense or other high cabinet post to get some experience. I like South Bend but it is not training for the presidency. Being gay he would lose an unknown % of the national vote that is too risky this time. Remember, Pete has only run in the most favorable states for him. I like Pete and see a great future for him.
1
It's disappointing that Biden, for all his merit, has proven to be such a timid candidate--during the debates. He's good in interviews, where he can be more emotionally engaged. He's a candidate who is better one-on-one. He is sincere and ethical. I'm sure he'd be a good president. I'm sorry that, for him, the debate format is proving to be a setback.
That said, it could be that Trump's attacks, though perhaps predictable, have unduly affected him. Perhaps he's still grieving Beau. He may have overestimated his ability to go through this grueling election process.
10
@Marilyn I agree that Biden would be a good president. I think he is too emotional to go against Trump and win. He is too hesitant to go against him. The only one that is proven tough enough to handle him is fellow New York businessman Bloomberg.
3
@Marilyn
He probably IS still grieving; he mentions his personal losses it just about every debate interview and appearance.
Thoughts in 2 different areas.
1) Assume nothing, get into the race and keep running. Why not Warren and Kobuchar together, Warren President now Kobuchar future.
2) David your and other's fixation on color of candidate are tiresome. There is little reason to believe that a candidate seen as "beige" will do more for all Americans seen as "beige " than a Sanders or Warren. And fracking and then health care, 2 of your fixations.
FracKing keeps America from leaving fossil fuels, which it must. And the absence of affordable for all health care means America's PUBLIC HEALTH can never match that of more advanced countries, including this one.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
9
@Larry Lundgren Forget Warren: she's out, done, kaput, shot herself in the foot by attacking Sanders with the pathetic "woman can't win elections" charge. Her numbers began tumbling that day.
1
@Duke Duke is correct, but there is more to it. Sen Warren thinks we are still in the Great Recession. On each issue, she maintains that mindset, as she sounds like a scolding school marm whose voice has given out. She is extreme, even for Cambridge.
1
@Duke - Duke you did not read my opening - Assume nothing.
Thanks for the reply
Larry
Okay, I'll take solace in this and just hope the best man, or woman, wins this race to eventually beat Trump. I don't want Pete (too young) or Bernie (too old and there's that Medicare for all), and what you're suggesting, Mr. Leonhardt, is that it's a long race. There's seeming weakness in Biden now and his campaign, like Warren's, is sputtering. But there will be a candidate and I'll support that Democratic candidate. A crowded field with many good ones gone--from Bennet to Harris to Booker to Yang--but standing in good stead Klobuchar and the remaining field. Onward, Democrats!
7
Biden seems nice enough. But I never took him seriously as a candidate. He only has name recognition because we'very all been enjoying hilarious memes for years.
Who will get the Democratic nomination? Who knows at this point. I kinda like the idea of a convention where we don't know until the end. If only this contest was not covered like a horse race, nothing but whose on first and sound bites. A voter has to work hard to find out what a candidate really hopes to do, or what their platform is.
4
This race started with a slew of moderates. Bennett, Castro, Mulvaney, Harris the guy from Dakota. I don’t know, it seemed like a lot. Was Williamson a moderate? What might be needed in a moderate, is fire. Incremental change is a hard sell. Working well with others doesn’t sell in partisan primaries is not a huge vote getter. Fiery doesn’t apply to middleoftheroadism.
Authenticity sells pretty well no matter the policy. As my old boss said, the secret of this business is sincerity, if you can’t be sincere, fake it.
1
I find a lot of punditry increasingly tiresome. The looming vote in Nevada -- a thinly populated state like Iowa with little more than 3 million people -- has the nattering nabobs of negativism (to quote Spiro Agnew) pontificating about how the Culinary Workers Union will turn on any presidential candidate who wants Medicare for All. Maybe so. But 66,000 union members are probably outnumbered by Nevada's retirees already acquainted with the benefits of Medicare. And if Trump wins another four years there may not be any unions left by the time he departs.
16
@Christy They see healthcare as something they help negotiate for their members, a reason for joining them.
I can’t believe those folks will hurt the chances of the one guy who’s the workers’ champion just for that selfish reason.
3
Imagine if the presidential campaign didn’t last three years (four in Trump’s case). Imagine if voters actually recognized what was good for them. Imagine American democracy proving Plato’s words: “Democracy passes into despotism.”
In the latter case, imagining isn’t really necessary.
5
David Leonhardt makes some excellent points. But let's be real: most of the folks mentioned had very little chance of winning the nomination.
What's more, it's a bit late--and unproductive--to contemplate who might have been a good candidate. We've got plenty to choose from.
It's time to examine the current people--all of whom are so much better than Trump--and select someone who will win in November. The Democrats are going to need someone with infrastructure, access to money, and chutzpah.
For months I've been saying that Joe Biden was the most electable candidate. That's no longer the case. The best bets are Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg certainly has a plan in place for November, and he's got enough money to pay for his campaign. He'll also be working to help the Democrats take back the Senate.
I know that most people resent the power of money in elections. Those people are absolutely right. But the Republicans have set the rules. Their voter suppression efforts and success with gerrymandering have devastated Democrats and our democracy. God bless Mike Bloomberg if he spends a few billion dollars and helps us right our ship.
22
@Brian
Any candidate we run is facing a multi-billion dollar disinformation campaign by the trumpets. They capitalize on social media, notably Facebook, by driving more clicks into far-right, rabbit-hole websites that confirm their bias toward Trump and denigrate all leftist propaganda. Bloomberg is the only candidate with enough bucks to counteract their offensive. Our problem is that we lack the same rabbit hole for lefties--we have no Fox, no propaganda machine equivalent. If we did have a propaganda machine, the term 'socialist" would become popular in red states.
1
@Svendska8
You know a lot more about this stuff than I do. However, Bloomberg might be the only Democrat who will be able to counter the various attacks the Democrats face.
My concern is that it’s too late for the other candidates to start their efforts against the Republican machine. They’re a day late and a dollar short.
It certainly looks like Mike Bloomberg knows exactly what he’s doing. The challenge is that the Trump campaign knows exactly how to play the game.
Have we forgotten so soon?
Hillary had the big donors, the DNC, and the super delegates sewn up long before 2016. Hillarry ran a lackluster campaign and spent more time at what she was good at--fundraising--than winning over voters.
Sanders was able to challenge her by courting and winning over millions of small donors--something no one else thought was possible.
7
The Democratic field has forgotten one thing; Trump not Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg, etc. is the person whom they are running against. Attacking each other weakens not strengthens the public's enthusiasm for their candidacy. Think the smart boring history teacher who can't stay focus - then you know the rest of the story.
8
Absolutely Biden should be running. If the other candidates can't beat him, how can they pretend that they are the better, stronger candidate?
Biden should have run in 2016, but the DNC and party activists were set on it being Hillary's turn. He was right not to run in the sense that like Sanders ways would be found to keep him from winning, and/or the resentment of Hillary's supporters and donors would hamstring the presidential race. That sure didn't end well.
The real problem with Mr. Leonhardt's "just go for it" argument is what we saw: 25 candidates, "debates" broken up into 2 groups and even then 10+ per stage with 30 second answers or just raising of hands. It would be a colossal mess if that continued up to when actual voting starts, and if everyone stays in regardless in the hope that they catch a brief wave, or to be remembered in 2024 or 2028.
5 (plus/minus 1) is a reasonable number of candidates to choose between, when they are the strongest ones.
3
@Alan
The debate format is a loser. The press queues up the questions designed to pit one against the other. The format teaches us nothing but snark. It's like watching Nascar, awaiting the next big fiery crash. Then we await the headlines detailing the crash and burn.
Panel discussions would be more clarifying, would help us to understand each candidates' positions on issues, and would be clarifying to the public. The candidates
would have time to respond to each other's questions.
@Svendska8
The formats are fine, the questions have been pretty bad - mostly gotcha questions trying to force a headline quote, he said-she said questions, and Republican talking points that presume the Right is reasonable and the left is dreaming,
In some ways the country was served by the Goliath candidacy of Hillary Clinton in 2016. The only person willing to challenge her for the long haul of the campaign was running with a substantively different vision for america. One could argue that candidates who are running on purely opportunistic grounds were weeded out, and only candidates of real courage would run against the Goliath. Biden never had that air of inevitability- he was always perceived as a somewhat weak front-runner.
4
What the other potential candidates could not foresee is the impeachment of the President, and the collateral damage done to Biden. The impeachment, and the underlying reason for the impeachment, created daily attention to the appearances of conflict of interest in the Biden family. And this daily attention, combined with the inability of Joe Biden to present a persuasive response, created opportunity for others who were still on the debate stage.
The problem with running for President as a long shot is the reward for massive devotion to the campaign is usually zero. And people feel they can be more useful or productive in other ways.
3
This piece fails to mention the enormous toll a presidential campaign takes on an individual and that individual’s family. Warren looked at the board in 2016, saw that the funding and party power was behind Clinton, and probably thought to herself: “is it really worth the risk to my health and the health of my family?” Mitch Daniels, one of the rare Republicans I could consider voting for, voiced these same thoughts when he decided not to pursue his party’s nomination in 2016. It’s easy for us on the sidelines to say “run!”, but we don’t have to deal with the agony of raising money, contorting ourselves into fifty different shapes to appease every splinter group, then facing the constant 155mm artillery barrage from pundits and columnists who have never run for office; yet, always know what a candidate needs to do in order to win.
4
@Maryland Chris : Very empathetic comment, Chris. Thanks for mentioning. So true.
The problem is not whether or not Sanders is electable. The question is whether or not he should be President. My answer is a loud NO. I think he is a demagogue and a fixed ideologue and his policies are for the most part wrong. For example he is stick to single payer even though 2/3 rds of the electorate is opposed to that method of achieving universal coverage.
122
@Jake
Since when is 2/3 of the electorate opposed to single payer? I'm in the health field and I don't see that. Evidence, please.
315
It's really hard to measure the support for something like Medicate for All, since the cost/benefits of it very greatly depending on all sorts of assumptions. It is also really hard to poll such a question in a neutral way, as subtle differences in wording can emphasize the benefits or the costs, and skew responses accordingly.
37
OK, if this is what you think, which demagogue do you prefer... Sanders or Trump? The one who wants to help the majority of people in this country or the one who wants to help himself and his family?
56
Please don't refer to Mike Bloomberg as a moderate Democrat. He is a Republican.
He's only recently registered as a Dem, as part of his plan to buy the presidency. And why not? It almost worked for Hillary.
410
@Count DeMoney
I don’t care what Bloomberg calls himself - anybody who’s put his money into supporting gun control, Planned Parenthood, protecting the environment, would have my vote. Plus he supported many if not most of the Democrats who succeeded in turning the House blue in 2018. A good person who puts his money into worthy causes. Now trying to save the country from a second term of Trump. That’s fine with me, and the petty bickering over his late entry into the race is incomprehensible, considering that he was holding back to give Biden a chance.
880
@Count DeMoney Bloomberg is NOT a republican. He switched from being a democrat to being a republican because that was the only realistic path to run for mayor of NYC at the time. And by his last term, he had switched to independent. He was a democrat for muchj of his adult life and he is one now. He has contributed greatly to core democratic causes such as gun control, climate change, planned parenthood, education, and more. And he has done so for many years, not just since he decided to run for the presidency.
232
@Count DeMoney
"Bloomberg was a lifelong Democrat until 2001, when he switched to the Republican Party before running for Mayor. He switched to an independent in 2007, and registered again as a Democrat in October 2018."
And Senator Sanders has been a Democrat for how many years? Oh, that's right = ZERO.
307
Not enough Democrats chose to run this cycle? There were 29 candidates! The first few debates were broken into chunks because networks couldn't fit all of the contenders on stage, and it was impossible to get a sense of any of them because they had to split time with 28 other hopefuls. Voters are only just discovering Klobuchar because, until now, she had been drowned in a circus of de Blasios and Williamsons. If anything, the Democrats need to winnow the field earlier.
6
I'll add another recent example. Mitt Romney chose to stay out of the race in 2016 because he felt there was no way to beat the favorite: Jeb Bush.
That said, I think Mr. Leonhardt is mis-remembering the mood a year ago. Potential candidates like Landrieu, Bloomberg and Sherrod Brown seemed to feel that Democrats had to go too far left to win. The Squad was getting widespread media coverage and even declared candidates like Harris and Gillebrand were running to the left of how they had governed. Harris made two critical errors: running to the left and dropping out too early. Had she presented herself as a younger, smarter more consistant alternative to Biden, her attacks on him may have been more effective. And then she dropped out of the race when she had at least as much support and money as Klobuchar, not only cutting off her own chances but fueling the narrative that the Democratic party was hostile to candidates of color.
5
David, it's not Biden scaring off our next president, it's you pundits and the democratic elite attacking and undermining Bernie Sanders that will keep a democrat from the white house. Despite the fact that almost all democrats have embraced his agenda, that he has energized a long dormant youth electorate, and the crystal clear polling over a long period of time that shows him beating Donald Trump, you still treat him like a pariah. I think one of the elephant's in the room of Bernie hysteria, is that he doesn't talk like the typical presidential candidate. I can relate to this, as a Jew in a largely christian country, I have always felt a little bit like the other.
11
@Claude Not all Democrats have embraced Sanders' agenda - not me, nor many others. While I like his demeanor and transparency, I don't agree with many of his policies - for example, I believe Medicare-For-All and 100% free public college would be mistakes, for various reasons.
While I'd gladly vote Sanders over the embarrassing incumbent from the White House, he's not my first choice, and many other moderate Democrats would likely say the same.
8
@Sean I do get it that many democrats don't embrace all of his agenda. What I meant, and I did a bad job trying to say this, is that a lot of what he has been fighting for, especially in the 2016 campaign, has been at least broadly, embraced by democrats, like raising the minimum wage, providing health care for all Americans, family leave and other issues he has championed. I feel that many people unfairly call him un-electable for policy positions not much different from what, for example, Hillary was offering in 2016. Lastly, like you, even though I much prefer Bernie, I will support whichever candidate democrats choose.
1
It seems that Biden is running because it was his dying son's wish. He said so years ago. But his son's advice was to run in 2016. That was Biden's chance of winning.
10
I fail to see how the lesson here is that MORE candidates should run. Didn’t we start with twenty candidates in the first debates?
If anything, this cycle teaches us the opposite: fewer people should fancy themselves presidential material. Imagine if some of these bloated egoists were running for Senate seats.
10
Oh for Pete's sake. Don't blame Biden for preventing others from joining the race. Who, exactly, was so stellar in the Democratic party that would have rose to the top and been as charismatic as Obama? No one, that's who. I am a life-long Democratic, will always vote on the Democratic line, but I'm getting impatient with them. Sure, Trump steamrolled every one in his path to get to the presidency but I feel like the Dems just did not learn their lesson and think that they can play by the same rules as they did in 2016 and somehow, by miracle, they'll get their guy in office. I don't want them playing the dirty tricks that trump did but they're just relying on the hope that the American people see that they're the good guys and will give their votes to them on that basis. Sheesh!
12
@Laura
Fellow Connecticutian here.
Could not agree with you more.
Trump is asymmetric, our nominee has to be better and try to anticipate his disinformation and his chaos.
Although I will not vote for Bloomberg in the primary, logistically and technology wise he seems to be the only one to know how to deal with him. And he probably has not shown all his cards yet in terms of what he can do.
It will boil down to policy vs. beating Trump.
1
@Laura I don't think he's saying that. The point is that the Democratic Party itself throws its support behind certain candidates long in advance, which can have the effect of discouraging others to run.
3
For weeks I have been writing in the comments section for the pundits to be patient. This year , compared to 2016, there are multiple competent candidates all of whom have a fighter's chance of defeating Trump.
Politics is a blood sport and the Democratic candidate will have to be very resilient to beat an amoral and vicious opponent like Trump. A tough campaign in the the primaries will sort out the weak of spirit.
If Biden cannot stand up to the Bernie Bros he surely cannot stand up to Trump.
I have watched campaigns over my far too many years and at this stage nothing is certain except the future of the country is at stake. In the beginning of the Trump presidency I took heart from thinking we survived Nixon so we an survive Trump.
I was mistaken in that Nixon had a Republican Party that was not afraid of him. Trump does not have that restraint. The Republican Senate is cowed and Barr a willing co conspirator.
These times are far more dangerous than Nixon's.
20
I like Mike.
Apparently, I am not alone.
We need big guns to beat Trump.
No one even comes close.
Mike got NYC turned around and he will do the same with America.
I love that his ads make Trump squirm.
He will take Trump out and do so decisively.
No one else can come close to that.
Mike always gets it done.
7
@Simon Sez
Ive lived and worked in NYC my entire life.
It was Giuliani that turned around NYC, not Bloomberg.
Bloomberg merely continued Guiliani's policies, with the exception of course, with Stop and Frisk.
That was Bloomberg's.
1
@Simon Sez
Rudy Guliani turned NYC around after years of misrule by Democrats.
I wish Corey Booker and Kamala Harris had disregarded Iowa and New Hampshire to run a national race.
Win or lose, we’d be better for their presence.
8
Which candidate can defeat Trump?
The one who wins the most votes in the Electoral College.
As HRC discovered, if you can't win the E.C., you lose.
All else is bloviating.
7
This is silly two ways.
First, lots of serious moderate candidates, including Senators and Governors who never made it to the debate stage, entered the race and took their shot despite Biden being in the race. They were not scared off. Neither were several longshots who potentially could have caught fire.
Second you are treating the Biden candidacy as dead when that seems very far from certain, as national polls still place him among the top candidates and both Sanders and Biden's moderate rivals face increased public scrutiny.
3
@Mark R We can only hope that Biden’s candidacy is dead, because if he becomes the nominee (no doubt with help from the hand-wringing DNC establishment), Trump will absolutely win a second term. The only thing he ever really had going for him was “electability”....the strength in polls were because people thought he had the best chance of winning against Trump, not because people really wanted him over others as president. And after losing the first 2 contests and losing ground in the polls in the next, the “electability” argument is looking pretty thin.
2
Everyone is piling on Michael Bloomberg now, for "buying" the election. I guess we didn't like Citizens United type funding when it affects a horse in the race not named Bloomberg. Let him spend his $ and offer ideas and promises; spread the word on what a "middle" road can offer citizens. Then let "Super Tuesday" sort it out. That's democracy! On the other hand, Bernie Sanders is a sure path to the re-election of DJT. He's more radical than Trump will ever be.
6
Landrieu, Bullock, Bennet and Sherrod Brown probably all would be better than Biden at this point. There must be at least 4-5 other women out there who would be just as strong as Klobuchar or Warren.
All it takes is for someone to break into a gallop and everyone will stand back. Who out there feels the energy of this moment? Who is looking into their mirror right now and 'knows' they will be President? They are the one who will beat Trump. Unless it is Trump.
Bernie is an excellent candidate who has already replaced Biden. He, of all of them, is most likely to win.
You are scared of red-baiting. It doesn't faze Bernie, and is a worn out trope.
As to Medicare for all, since the MSM has entirely distorted what it is, perhaps we must compromise a little, creating the plan, but instead of introducing it by age group, introducing it for those who want and need it. Soon, everyone will want it.
7
@dr. c.c. : Medicare for All is a good idea. The thing that scares me about it is that it is only working on the payment side, not the cost side. We need to reduce the costs of health care before we can just make everything "free". I'd like to see all the candidates talk more about how to reduce the costs. 17% of our GDP goes to health care. It's going to kill us unless we fix it.
@dr. c.c. I couldn't agree more. For sincerity, humanity, genuine concern for people you can't do better than Bernie Sanders. If the DNC hadn' sandbagged him in 2016, he would likely be president now. What a different, better world we could be living in.
2
My golden retriever would make a wiser and better president than trump, and yes, the whole process takes too long.
6
Fair enough, but it sure looked as if there were plenty of pragmatists (I don't care for the vituperative, "moderate") to compete with Biden; and even now, who's to say there can't be a brain wave to reflux a few of the quitters? That said, any country loony enough to ignore John Hickenlooper deserves to have lost Michael Bennet. We can't keep blaming perfectly satisfactory people for a decision-averse system.
@Carter Nicholas
The “country” hasn’t decided anything... only 2 states have had primaries so far.
I think the writer’s article about moderate Democrats ‘being scared fo run’ because of Biden is ridiculous. There were over a dozen candidates, many of which were moderate.
It’s an article which really makes very little sense.
4
I was waiting for both MItch Landrieu and Terry McAuliff to jump in. I met both of them in 1978 my freshman year of college. They are both great guys.
I am hoping that AMY Klobachar will strongly consider MItch Landrieu as a running mate. He has been a Southern Lt. Govenor and Mayor with a very high favorability by AFrican Americans. I often ask African Americans from NO what they think of MItch and they all loved him. They felt he did a much better job than the African American Mayors.
Mr. Leonhardt is often wise, but this column shows he's panicking. Biden didn't scare off candidates. There are plenty in the race, all better than Trump. Although that's a very low bar. Most significant is Buttigieg, who is studiously ignored by the cognoscenti. as they talk about Sanders and Klobuchar, Steyer and Bloomberg. Is this their way of signalling his sexuality or age are more of a burden than they want to admit?
Trump was a fluke. On almost any other day in 2016 he would have lost. The Republicans would be going crazy over Hillary's emails, maybe even impeaching her for it. Marco Rubio would be leading in the polls.
In other words, the Democrats are alright. They'll sort things out. The future will be different than we expect.
1
Yes, the problem in this year's Democratic primary was the lack of moderate candidates. Maybe if the original field was one hundred instead of twenty-five, a moderate would have risen to the top instead of your worst nightmare, Bernie Sanders.
But wait, is it possible that rank and file Democrats have moved to the left? Of course not. The American working class loves low wages and inadequate health care coverage. Young voters love being saddled with huge amounts of student debt. Minority communities love being courted come election time and completely ignored at other times.
Yes, let's keep banging our heads against the wall in the hopes that it will cure a headache. You are the most most insightful commentator that has ever lived. We should all kiss your feet.
4
Bernie’s name is only mentioned, and that too next to words “a less prominent progressive”. This is what is called Bernie blindness.
3
@Rocko Incredible, claiming that in 2016 Sanders was "a less prominent progressive" than Warren.
1
Sometimes the shallowness of presidential politics is its undoing. "Landrieu, the former mayor of New Orleans whose soaring speech on Confederate statues gave him a national profile, could have been a strong candidate in South Carolina." Landrieu was a terrible administrator. He allowed New Orleans' flood-damaged water and sewer system to founder, placing an unqualified incompetent in charge of the system and then ignoring it for eight years so he could focus on statuary. Since he departed, it's been one flood and boil water advisory after another. They pulled an entire car out of our drainage system! A good speech does not a good candidate, or a good president, make.
I don't know what made him decide not to, but if Sherrod Brown had run, he would have won. We don't have a relatable, charasmatic choice like that.
4
You couldn't have gotten this more wrong. The weaknesses of the "moderates" (right wing Democrats) that actually got into the race was not their weaknesses as candidates as much as their weakness of ideology. A very big proportion of Democrats now put progressive ideology well ahead of party, and to posit that yet another neoliberal may well have changed entire complexion of the race is foolish at best, disingenuous at worst. The rank and file of the Democratic Party are rapidly drifting away from the conservative "center" of the party. The question is not which candidate would have been the best to maintain the status quo, but is rather whether the majority of the Democratic electorate is still buying the corporate talking points. I don't believe that has been definitively answered yet, but it is certainly looking more every day like the mainstream has to rethink where they fit in the political realm.
3
I don't get the gist of this column, is it that candidates should not feel cowed by Joe Biden? I see no evidence that any did. That not enough candidates jumped in early to save us from Bernie? There's only one candidate who fits that description, Bloomberg, who's buying lots of airtime to make up for being late to the party. But a billionaire can't buy popularity to beat Bernie, the anti billionaire populist.
Trump was a populist from the right, now Bernie is a populist from the left, no surprise really. When the pendulum swings one way too far, the law of physics tell us it is bound to swing the other way too far. So who does Bernie name for AG, Ralph Nader?
I thought Biden was a fine candidate, but after Trump did his Russian backed conspiracy attack on Joe, all the Dems got scared and decided to throw Joe under the bus. Good luck America, by the way. I choose Bernie over Trump. Bernie is a socialist, but Trump is literally a fascist dictator in the making.
4
I suspect when you elect a court clown, with a background in TV, to be president only only stands to reason someone would come forward thinking he is applying for the part of benevolent King. Once we go down the road of having only the mega rich running for President then we are electing from the pool of financial Aristocracy. Is this where we really want to go? Myself I prefer people being elected on the peoples money. It's time to fund our election with public funding. Somehow we need to start electing people by the people instead of who has the biggest pocket.
3
Why didn’t Sherrod Brown put his name in the mix? He would have been the strongest candidate.
1
Biden is trainling because Trump and Giuliani tainted him. Turns out even the false suggestion of a possible "investigation" is enough to drive away supporters, just as it drove supporters away from Hillary Clinton.
Maybe Biden has time to recover. We'll see on March 3.
1
I wish President Obama would have spent more energy developing the next generation of Dem leaders during his tenure. Maybe that would have encouraged all the 70+ year olds to stay on the sidelines.
2
Still not willing to talk about Sanders being the front runner, he?
Nobody with any sense thought Biden was a shoo in. Lots of candidates ran, many of them buoyed by gushing media reports. None of them have gained the traction that Sanders has. This wasn't a weak field. You just have your head in the sand.
3
Imagine the race if a candidate by the name of Bernie Sanders had refused to be intimidated by a twisted and corrupt system that would use any means, legal or not, to prevent him from beating their anointed candidate, and still came out ahead.
"Did Biden Scare Off Our Next President?" Apparently not.
3
No, Biden did not scare off our next president: Bernie Sanders is in the race.
5
So the problem is there were too FEW Democratic candidates on those debate stages?