The weak link in infection control is a lack of eye protection. Eyes are a likely reason for the still expanding spread of the virus. It's all well and good to have a mask but people should be wearing eye protection as well. "over the glass" goggles and regular goggles are available.
Another concern is the appearance of panic by some claiming they are detained without care. They should be told to remember that the death rate of those infected is only about 2 out of every 100 afflicted, so chances are pretty good if they endure the illness calmly to reinforce the immune system, they will easily survive. But panic will result in harmful stress that will inhibit healing. To be calm is to be confident of survival and that will likely contribute to defeating the disease.
Remember that out of chaos always comes order, but don't strong arm panic or you will exaggerate the chaos.
3
A comment about the condition of the subway in the pic made me think. Despite our mental images of China involving filthy wet markets and rampant spitting, the interior of that subway car looks like you could eat off it. Compare this to a typical NYC subway car. If one of the wealthiest cities in America can’t currently provide basic sanitation for its’ mass transit system, how are we going to deal with an epidemic here? We are the ones living in 3rd world conditions! We are NOT ready! We have to start fixing things now. We have to get ready because, even if we somehow dodge this one, a plague is coming.
8
What if this was not contained and was allowed to spread? Would it truly be devastating in terms of deaths or is it the unknowns that are creating such panic?
I don't intend this to be a stupid question; I'm trying to separate hype from reality. Is it inherently coronavirus that would be so devastating or our fear of coronavirus?
2
The Chinese government, and their subsidiary the WHO, can't be trusted to provide accurate estimates of infections and deaths due to this virus. They go around spraying pesticides and rat poison throughout their streets, and pretend that is sanitization. They are locking people in makeshift prisons they call hospitals. They are quashing doctors who speak out when the disease hits.
Until we see an independent 3rd partys unbiased assessment, this epidemic will not be fully understood. Stop taking the CCP's word for it.
4
Newton wrote that every action has an equal, but opposite, reaction. Maybe reaching nearly eight billion people on earth inevitably resulted in a "culling of the herd"? Epidemics thrive on close contacts, especially business contacts. Just look at how the plague spread in medieval times.
The German COVID-19 outbreak - just as an example - would not have been possible without international business travel. Also the fact that China has become a major global economic player contributed to the spread of the virus. In - let's say - the 60's the virus would probably stayed inside the country, even the city/province, much longer.
No matter how and when this epidemic (or pandemic?) ends, we should think about how to prevent the next one. Unrestricted air travel is not just bad for the environment (CO2) but can also put us all into an early grave. Watch "Outbreak" again and imagine an airborne-person-to-person Ebola flying Lufthansa at 500 MPH...
There are alternatives. Just ask Cisco how much their business jumped up after 9/11 when flying became a big no-no for business-people. I know that teleconferencing is not the same as "being there", and the "networking" part of having drinks and shaking hands is very important, but it's exactly the shaking of hands that's the problem.
Maybe someone needs to invent a surgical glove for business-people, with pinstripe-design or so. Boss and Gucci to the rescue!
4
14840 to 4800. It's still increasing but at a much slower rate. What we can do to further contain the outbreak is to send more medical resources to China. While some hawkish critics might not be happy, this is the only way that the Chinese citizens will be thankful to the outside world after the epidemic goes away eventually.
It's the Chinese people who can make China a better civilized society, not the Chinese regime. We can see the mirror image of this simple truth right in the U.S. In spite of the disrespectful Trump administration, the U.S. and its people are still the vanguard of democracy.
10
During the great plague of 1347-1351 - which killed 25 million people (one third of the earth's population at that time) - people were desparately trying to determine the cause of the disease so as to find a way to stop it --
One theory - understandable considering the time - was the plague was a punishment from God upon the earth's population - which gave rise to groups of religious penitents marched from town to town wearing hair shirts and whipping themselves as they went along - better known as the Flagellants - in the hopes of receiving God's mercy and forgiveness -
Another theory - somewhat more popular - was an idea that "The Jews" had somehow poisoned the public water supply - causing an unstoppable spread of the plague - and to blame them for the horror -
In ignorant retaliation - Jews were beaten and murdered in numerous cities across Europe as punishment - and in he hopes that would somehow hasten the end of the plague --
So - here we are in 2002 - with a new plague, which is also spreading panic and ignorance as it infects humans around the world --
It's safe to say that we probably won't see groups of people wearing hair shirts and whipping each other in this iteration --
However - finding a target of blame - as in - "This is all THEIR fault" - or - "If it wasn't for THOSE PEOPLE this would have never happened" - is still a very popular, deeply ingrained - and an almost instinctive survival mechanism - lurking just under the surface...
11
People who want to get tested should fly from San Diego to Washington DC and walk into their Senator’s office. After saying “I was in Wuhan two weeks ago and the CDC has refused to administer a COVID-19 test on me,” they will get prompt and immediate medical attention.
18
What a disgrace is this so called government that condemns people to death because its so called leaders are simply breathtakingly ignorant and ingloriously callous!
As it is clear from victims of the virus elsewhere, common treatment against flu —basically good hydration and monitoring— works very well for most.
Hospitalizations should be reserved for complicated cases. Treatment should be at home. The virus is already rampant in the wild, with most people having no symptoms but being contagious.
These ridiculous mass incarcerations —these are no quarantines— are only furthering the spread and condemning innocent people to die due to lack of care.
4
So yesterday the NYTimes was accusing the Chinese government of deceiving when it decided to change the diagnosing standard. Clearly somebody didn’t do their homework. How about a retraction?
8
It is worth noting that despite the appropriate criticism leveled against the Chinese ruling party; that mistakes are being made elsewhere, by WHO and the CDC. Still to this today there is ambiguity on the part of scientists about the incubation period, infectious nature, time of incubation, where or not testing early on can even detect it (even though you may have it and be symptomatic later on) so on and so on. And viruses mutate. We are in uncharted waters, so beware the government officials telling you not to worry and that our health system can handle it. The same statement is being made in over 200 countries and frankly, it is a lie.
20
"Coronavirus could infect two-third of globe, says WHO adviser" (February 13)
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/coronavirus-could-infect-two-third-of-globe-says-who-adviser-11581609086617.html
This report can be dismissed as one of many and considered written by a "Casandra" like those so labeled who predicted the 2008 crash, but should the incidence rate dramatically increase in U.S., I fear that improper or insufficient information and attention will be given to the public in the U.S. from pressure by Trump&Co.
All institutional structures have been attacked, attempts to disassembled them continue, truth-tellers are demonized, politicians live in fear of their lives from right-wing elements, federal judiciaries and juries are being pressured, the rule of law is being reoriented by a lawless Attorney General, Wall Street reaches new highs as the society deteriorates.
I read again articles in the business press that offer tips for profiting off the deaths of tens of thousands while also admitting and long-standing disruption of supply chains could lead to a world-wide recession (read: depression).
In other words, is a "perfect storm" brewing that is under the stewardship of a sadistic, psychopathic president in league with power-brokers who only seek profit, call truth "fake", enrich the few, seek to starve the poor, willfully dismantle health related safety nets?
Call me Casandra, but I do think about it. I worry.
21
While many are hoping that this crisis will be the undoing of the CCP, I sure hope that it doesn't happen too soon. If social order breaks down before this crisis ends. this plague will sweep the world.
8
@Student if it undoes the CCP many would be happy...until the chaise spread and wrecked a world global economy bordering on bankruptcy and then the tune would change. On the other hand it may mean trump can’t hold rallies - “see good in bad” virtue
2
The Communist Party is making this a practice for mass political/rebellion suppression.
4
Just a thought for the brigade of geniuses who insist, without any evidence whatsoever, that the Covid-19 pathogen was released or escaped from a Chinese Bio-Weapon laboratory; in either case the Chinese would have been much more ruthless in concealing the source. If the virus was available at the laboratory, an accidental release would have been quickly camouflaged by multiple releases at a variety of other plausible locations in the tropics within a few days of the accident. The idea that the Chinese would have intentionally released the virus in the same city where their lab was located is very much like suggesting they would likely test a nuclear weapons by detonating one over Shanghai. Highly unlikely!
18
This is unrelated to the story. I Want to thank you for the in-depth coverage. I’m grateful to all at the NYT who continue to keep us updated. You are my trusted source for news.
23
The bottom line is that this situation is bad, no matter how you slice or dice it, and if we are lucky, we will contain it with a minimum of damage.
We will then seen how much we learned by how we prepare for the next big one which biological behaviors make inevitable.. My guess is that the discussion will be similar to the discussion contained herein today, and we will have learned little.
One thing I think is definitively true and that is that governments and business never included in their calculations that something like this could actually shut down business, supply chains, etc.. Surprise!!!!!
Financial loss will cause people to take this much more seriously than mortality rates ever will.
.
12
Absolutely incredible that censorship is what led to this outbreak becoming as bad as it has become — and yet the Chinese are STILL censoring people!!!
Absolutely chilling that two citizen journalists have gone missing. China — are you going to keep suppressing information until the whole world is dead? We need more information, not less.
To the CCP: your hold on power loses legitimacy with every act of censorship. People see through it and know you are hiding things. If you truly had the respect and support of the people you rule, you wouldn’t have muzzle them.
12
@L: let’s be a little careful about throwing insults around. Management of information is important - think about the complaints about Facebook running adverts that contain false information... not to mention FaF.
You are imputing wrong motives to the Chinese government without really knowing what their motivation is. I am not saying that we shouldn’t question it, but we shouldn’t jump to the worst conclusion either. Jesus warned us that as we judge, so we shall also be judged. Are you ready for the same assumptions to be made about anything you do?
5
Which is more likely?
1. This virus, like Ebola, Hantavirus, Lassa, Marburg, came from a wild animal. We have a large market in the area where the disease broke out that has live wild and domestic animals which is an excellent way expose people to such things.
Or
2. It’s a secret plot by (insert hostile government here) to attack us.
3
If a totalitarian government like China’s is having this much trouble containing the virus, imagine how much trouble a free country will have. Countries like the USA can’t do the kind of things China does to its citizens.
5
@S Not yet. Do you know who the President is? His GOP enablers? His disdain for the rule of law, our branches of government and the Constitution? Oh, and his contempt for us. The citizens.
9
@S
Without going into current era politics, if there were a serious contagion it is well within the power of governments in the US to declare a public health emergency and forcible quarantine people diagnosed with the illness.
7
Reading this reminds me of how Trump 'rules' the US -
"In the rush to carry out the edict, officials are haphazardly rounding up sick patients, in some cases separating them from their families and placing them in the makeshift medical facilities, sometimes without providing the medicine or support they need." (reminds me of Trumps edict to ICE to round up immigrants and their children seeking amnesty and being thrown in cages and separating families, not keeping track of where families are sent. Sick children not receiving medical attention or care and dying.
Mr. Xi firing two top communist leaders for not being loyal enough and the optics the world sees of his lack of controlling the outbreak and number of deaths. Sounds like Trump firing people who are not loyal to him in his administration.
8
And Xi still won't ban wet markets forever? what a chicken!
4
@Will Hogan
View it this way Will, it’s been seventeen years since SARS. How many wet markets have been in operation during the period and what has been the effect on the million and more who have shopped there daily?
China has a FDA that sets regulations and one failing in that period is hardly worth comment – almost.
The shock westerners often feel when seeing a market is “That’s where food comes from?”
2
The subway in the picture looks sparkling clean. I wish NYC would at least step up the cleaning of our subways, disinfecting them nightly and letting us know they are being disinfected. I know this isn't the most important issue right now, but this whole crisis has made me take a good look around and see how disgusting the city is right now. Garbage on the streets, trains never cleaned. New York is really at a low point (I lay this at your feet, Mayor DiBlasio). A clean city would make people feel more optimistic about their health, which in turn would lower stress and boost the immune system and improve public health!
24
Let me tackle the a flu is worse misnomer
According to PBS Newshour, a much larger threat than coronavirus is measles affecting millions of children around the world without vaccinations.
And the useless UN spend its time again and again attacking Israel on behalf of global liberal, anti US “enlightened” leaders with European support for the sake of Palestinians who have continuously rejected Israel and peace in favor of terrorism, ANTISEMITISM and delegitimization. Ignored are the many more lives of legitimate victims around the globe.
In our world, brainwashing and delusion is the filter that shapes policy and political discourse.
I grew up when we had institutional racism, Vietnam and assassinations. Today’s gripes are fabrications that produce power for woke elites at the expense of real people who need our support.
2
@Alberto Abrizzi
Mortality from measles may not be as high as that from coronavirus.
1
I wish that you would update your map to include the new case in San Antonio Texas.
We need CURRENT information, not this stuff you've had up for 2 weeks.
14
The classification system used by the Chinese changed to better reflect reality. It was only a classification rule change, and maybe better ascertainment, but no change in behaviour of the virus. But the number of formal cases listed went up as a result. So, US media reported the "case numbers surged" and the US stock market went down. Are all these people idiots? There is no change in the virus from 2 days ago, only a classification rule change and improved ascertainment. It is the (dumb) media leading the dumb public. Did the media say cases surged to capture money from eyeballs? Technically true but very misleading. Or are they just so dumb that they don't know the difference? Does the US media want to earn the title "fake news"? If not, then show some skill and judgement, Times included.
2
@Will Hogan well if you read just headlines that’s what you get. If people don’t want to verse themselves in anything but headlines there’s not much you can do about it - other than count their vote for Trump this year. NYT and other outlets have done a great job following this virus.
3
Ridiculous, these people are only suffering from headaches.
MB
3
All the conspiracy theories in this comment section it looks like a Trump rally,
4
While a number of cases have arisen in other parts of the world, including the US. The fact remains that the most virulent "hot spot" remains the City of Wuhan. Other places report cases in the double digits or so. Whereas we're talking tens of thousands in Wuhan.
This begs the question whether, even given the fact of human-to-human contagion, is there another reason it's so prevalent in that city?
One has to wonder if the water supply or some other broad infrastructure system is spreading this virus?
3
The exponential grow in the number of people recently reported as infected with COVID-19, as well as, draconian measures taken by the government of China to prevent its spread (including offering bounties) should be enough to get most people's attention. Those refusing to consider this infection as no dangerous than seasonal influenza might want to study the limited data publicly available.
to consider that this is no more
8
anyone else think this virus was created so China could expand their surveillance state?
Why would they need a deadly virus to do that?
5
@michael no. not at the expense of their now quiet economy.
7
Uh, no. What was stopping them from increasing their surveillance state prior to the outbreak?
8
the pain this virus puts on the chinese
economy will last for years.
1
Not just China, the world
3
@wargarden
And ours, since every product in this country -- almost every product -- is manufactured in China.
1
The cities have not "been hit hard by the crisis". Is there something called The Crisis infecting and killing people? No, the people and cities have been hit hard by an outbreak of an infectious disease.
This is not journalism 101, it's writing and grammar 101. If they were being hurt by the carry-on effects of the infection, like suffering an economic impact, then they would be suffering from the crisis. Of course, this would not necessitate rounding people up. The writer meant to say hit hard by the infection, or by coronavirus.
6
I would think that mass roundups and the quarantine of millions qualify as a ‘crisis.’
4
@Weave
True, not sure why you point that out as it is not germane to my post. You may not see the nuance.
An actionable thing creates a crisis, a crisis is not the actionable thing. For example, a loved one has to go to the emergency room. Heart attack! It is a crisis! There it would be equally incorrect to say that your loved one has to get CPR because of the crisis.
Fire in your kitchen! Crisis! Firefighter come in and spray water all over your crisis.
Et cetera. Here the cities have people getting rounded up because of an infection, not because of the crisis caused by the infection.
3
No gloves. And bare hands touching all those unknown germs! For shame.
2
Something about the term “mass roundup” doesn’t feel right.
8
Sure took the heat off Boeing.
9
Maybe this virus was created in a lab by China or North Korea. Possibly the virus got out and we shall see if warner weather will stop this disease. Strange how fast the North Koreans headed out of China. Macau is completely empty. Anyone who would go there sharing a boat , a gambling table , hotel room , meals is nuts. Well if scientific experiments were dine on the deceased enter the data and see if their correlations with man made viruses. If diseases increase with warner weather China is in very serious trouble.
1
Not just China.
2
@Ralph Petrillo and perhaps the moon is made of cheese.
3
I think that it is very odd that such a high percentage of the US citizens evacuated from Wuhan that are being held in quarantine actually tested positive for the virus. I am sure that anyone very sick would have been prohibited from the planes. Statistically speaking expats represent a small subset of population where there 20 million persons living in the Wuhan area. Their activities, overall health, standard of economics would protect them more than the average citizen..So the original 150 passengers were in the first evacuation and about 500 passengers more in the subsequent. So far there are about 15 cases in the US where 3 cases were confirmed at their quarantined military base facilities (2 California and 1 in Texas). The initial 150 were tested multiple times and were released yesterday.
As a subset you could take 3/350 there would be about a 1 percent infection rate. Given the agreed upon misinformation of the Chinese government. The real infections would be 20 million at 1 percent would be a 200,000 person outbreak with a 1-2 percent fatality rate.= 10,000-20,000. Adding for delayed symptoms onset, super spreaders, insufficient diagnosis, sanitary facilities for care- rates of incidents numbers would be increasing exponentially.
What makes our healthcare system so much more prepared? I keep reading about risks to persons with underlying respiratory conditions- does this include asthma sufferers? There are 26.5 million in the US. Wash your hands before you eat !
5
This story is misleading. Whenever you change the basis of measurements you will get a large change in the numbers. This is a re-calibration. No reason to get alarmed just because of the jump in numbers. Cases outside China are not jumping, and there appears to be a slow-down in infections.
This is not to say that the situation is not critical in Wuhan. This is definitely a time to help China instead of always making reference to old tropes. The news from inside China is that the US talks a good game about helping, but has not done so well in actually providing help. Some may be due to communication problems, but we all know that the Trump administration talks a good game, but is poor on effective application.
9
It is not a political contest, nor a common game. His majesty the virus is a very well armed, sophisticated and evolved enemy.
I would say that we must have a definite “respect “for this epidemic event ,hoping that the peak will be reached in a short time. Let’s give a personal tribute to the sacred dignity of journalism. We are not here just to update ourselves on the latest isolation rules of a suffering population.
We are men, fragile and strong, not omnipotent voyeurs.
3
"Mass Roundup" because the Chinese government's tactics since communism has been one of shame and blame so while this tactic might seem innovative and helpful, I'm afraid it will be be more bad than good. I think the message should be one that stokes less fear.
1
While never a good idea to have a totalitarian regine - this virus controlling could be an exception.
China is facing not just a health crisis but I think its reputation has been tarnished for ever.
India is notorious for Delhi Belly - but this is at worse.
It's their Vietnam and they should own it.
I have been to China many times and travel a lot - just returned from Kashmir - days of bus loads of Chinese tourists being catered to - are gone - for good.
Governments around the world are going to tighten visa requirements for the Chinese - requiring health clearances like the old days of TB free certificates.
And that's going to make it difficult for Chinese to travel.
I also think it is their Vietnam because it is going to leave them with a sense of everything they have done economically - like our efforts in Vietnam - have come to a nought - and there is nothing they can do.
For commerce, many companies will now actively redo their supply chain to ensure they are not putting all their eggs in one basket.
Thanks to its strange eating habits - the Chinese have done themselves in.
No tarriffs ever could have strangled Chinese economy as this virus has.
And like us in Vietnam - they alone deserve the blame.
6
Oh dear. Oil demand is falling? Whatever will we do? This could be the end of civilization as we know it!
8
Let’s hope there’s an antibiotic for the Coronavirus soon! Under the Trump administration, the U.S. has seen severe cuts to the CDC and other who are on the front lines of preventing a ....pandemic!
@Mari viruses don't respond to antibiotics, bacteria do. I think you mean a vaccine.
3
Antibiotics don’t work on viruses.
2
Antibiotics have no effect on viruses.
2
Influenza can kill 650,000 people per year. Barring a mutation of this coronavirus, influenza is a more familiar but more deadly risk.
4
@Martha Reis
MOre from the mathematically ignorant (and spewing made-up numbers to boot)
(1) FLu -worldwide 250,000 -500,000 depending upon the strain -NOT 650,000 (per WHO)
Flu infections rates = roughly 10% of the population
Flu hospitalization rates = 1.5 -2% of those infected (57000 cases +/-)
Flu deaths = 1 in 1000 of those infected 1/10th of 1% (CDC past 4 years) = 39,000 deaths in US
(2) Corona virus - looks like an infection rate comparable to flu (8-10% of population) but some carriers have infected 60% of those whom they came in close prolonged contact)
Corona virus hospitalization rate IN SERIOUS OR CRITICAL condition (not including mild or moderate hospital cases) = around 16%
Corona virus rate of death in hard hit areas where the medical system is overwhelmed = 27%
Now infect 10% of the US with it = 3,290,000 cases
Have 16% of those cases in SERIOUS or CRITICAL condition and that is 526,400 ICU cases (not just hospitalized)
Have 27%of those infected die = 888300 deaths in the US
Hospitals would be overwhelmed with patients - critical care alone would be 8 times the number of all flu patients (mildly to seriously ill)
NOW do you GET IT?
31
@Martha Reis it’s only more deadly because it infects far more people. This virus is as contagious as flu, but kills more of those who are infected. The authorities are right to try to contain it, even if I don’t agree with China’s specific tactics.
14
Despite the human rights abuses which is what this piece strives to report, I am amazed by the daunting, to put it mildly, challenge faced by China. Their response, its results, have yet to be fully evaluated. They are in extreme crisis mode, dealing with millions of people. They are doing what makes sense to them. Those who sit far away in the comfort of their homes and criticize China are doing the easy thing. While in this crisis mode, it's premature to pass judgement on their effort.
19
I see no reporting on how lockdowns affect the itinerant workforce in China. A huge population of construction and day laborers would have no work right now. Because the virus outbreak began at the start of New Year celebrations, these workers would have likely already left cities to return to their families, in rural areas, for the week. And they will be stuck in the countryside with no income, or — maybe worse — stuck in the cities with no work. This is a largely invisible population that works for cash in hand, often off the books. How can they survive?
The notion of being locked down in place, or rounded up and transported to a virtual prison, scares me more than the virus does. When people are prohibited from taking care of their daily responsibilities, there will be collateral losses. I saw a story about a disabled person dying from dehydration and because the family member (father, I think) who was his sole carer was placed in quarantine. That is a cruel death. I think of the elderly who have no one to see to their needs, and people with chronic health issues needing and not getting daily medication or home nursing care, and of abandoned pets — not human, of course, but living creatures — dying from lack of water or food.
Even for the people stuck on cruise ships — provided for, but stuck nonetheless — I think of how many things would go wrong in my comfortable, reasonably organized life if I were forced to sit on a cruise ship for weeks. It’s a terrifying thought.
28
Given the standard of logic newly discovered to have validity in Wuhan, China, perhaps patients formerly counted among those deceased ostensiblely due to Covid-19 & who have subsequently been cremated, should no longer be counted with the statistical analysis of the epidemic. They no longer show any sign of infection, no longer require treatment and are unlikely to make further demands on medical resources. Family members are typically not available for comment.
8
The headline we should be seeing to help everyone rest easy:
“No ‘dramatic increase’ in coronavirus cases outside China"
WHO The World Health Organization said on Thursday there hasn’t been “dramatic increases” in coronavirus cases outside China, aside from cases on the Diamond Princess cruise docked in Japan.”
6
Mass round ups of people with mild symptoms will likely make more people sick and break the back of medical providers. Rational preventive efforts should focus on avoiding sending people to hospitals or camps except as a last resort. People with preexisting medical conditions should not go to mass camps.
25
I wish people would stop comparing this to the common flu. If anyone thinks China would take these measures over a virus comparable to the common flu then they are very naive.
Is China willing to admit to what truly caused this and stop obstructing along with their puppet WHO? Or will China continue along the same road? My guess is that the leaders feel they can risk losing a substantial portion of their population and carry on.
The problem is if this starts wiping out other populations, especially 3rd world countries where China was making inroads for access to natural resources. The backlash would be tremendous. Anyway China after the coronavirus will have to deal with big changes.
42
This virus is straining the resources of the country with the second largest economy on the planet. There’s no way poorer countries will be able to stop this.
4
I am indeed glad and heartened by the fact that China is responding to this epidemic by relying on its core competencies. After all, rounding up large numbers of their own citizens, imprisoning them for their own good and letting them die is something all communist regimes have been uncommonly good at.
23
@A Cynic: well-named indeed. Since it is the US that has the largest prison population, the US that has been caging people on the southern border in rapidly constructed facilities, a little humility is in order. Or maybe simply a greater cynicism regarding human nature in general. Humility and repentance are required of all.
8
The Trump administration should consider itself lucky we didn’t have a serious outbreak of disease on our southern border. Yet.
1
So the Japanese government is unable to test even the people on one cruise ship? Compare that to hundreds of thousands the Chinese have tested. Does anyone really believe the US could handle such a crisis any better? Let's not forget that US has hundreds of evacuees detained on military bases under armed guard. No article on that NYT? No doubt the Chinese regime is and will be brutal, and no doubt the US would be brutal too.
18
@AR The main concern will be billing sick people. That will be the brutal quality of the US healthcare system.
9
Cruise ships have never been my thing... it’s a Petri dish. My last two airline flights resulted in contracting common cold 3 days later. What seems to be missing from the reporting
Are statements from the epidemiologists / infectious disease experts....the disease complications, mortality percentages, incubation period etc.
Generally all of us need to wash hands thoroughly so much more! And get those flu shots each season and when symptomatic stay home.
23
@Marie Walsh, okay, not your thing. I’ve been on many cruises never been sick. You can pick up any virus at WalMart, Target, the local grocery store....ANY public space IS are petrified dish!
1
Read the paper @call_111 refers to in his comment! Yikes!
@Marie Walsh
Life is a petri dish. Airports, flights, train stations, trains, malls, supermarkets, the office, etc. We are all exposed unless we remain at home and seal all openings. Is that a life?
Currently almost all hospitals in the US are packed with patients due to flu related illnesses. We currently do not have any capacity to manage an outbreak of Covid 19. So for those of you who keep saying what is the big deal, we have no place to evaluate or treat. We too might have to look at military bases and college dorms. It is a big deal and that is why both the CDC and health care providers are worried.
68
@SridharC
This also is or could be a profound danger to people who must go to urgent care centers or ERs for unrelated issues. The wait is always forever, sitting in waiting rooms with people sick with who-knows-what.
5
Not that this doesn't deserve some attention, but for all the attention this is getting, keep in mind that almost every year, about 40,000-70,000 people die of influenza in this country, 10,000 - 20,000 die from drugs like ibuprofen, and so on.
Americans choose what they decide to care and get excited about, not always in a rational fashion.
Dead from Influenza is the same as dead from Coronavirus
And people still don't get vaccinated against influenza.
25
@BDR50:
Because they believe the hysterics of the anti-vaxxers. (Probably the same people who don't get the flu vaccine are the very ones now demanding that a vaccine for Covid-19 magically appear in a matter of months. More science-ignorance.)
7
@BDR50
100% agreed. The irony is quite amusing.
3
@BDR50 "Dead from Influenza is the same as dead from Coronavirus"
No. No, it isn't, but I envy your naiveté. The number of people dead from the coronavirus has already reached triple that number. Single-party dictatorships have no obligation to you the truth, public perception of their competence is their top priority.
15
This virus is a stark reminder that China is extremely autocratic and nationalistic. We in the US should crack down harder on China - maybe raise tariffs even more not reduce them; substantially curtail visas for Chinese students and business travel and pregnant women and generally increase sanctions on those who jail Ughirs and inhibit freedom of speech in China.
These measures will help US companies become less reliant or even independent of Chinese suppliers while forcing China to deal with the repression of their own people. We should stand with the voices within China that are bravely challenging repression and not with the oppressors.
14
Oh So Us is not nationalistic? Fines foreign companies everywhere? But people just complains in silence because they don’t have the choice.
6
Why are you still using coronavirus? The disease has a name COVID19.
9
@Ann
It is STILL a coronavirus.. and nobody is confused as to which virus we are discussing.
21
@Ann I think COVID19 is a type of coronavius, just like human is a type of primate, so it is not wrong to say coronavius, which by the way is a lot easier to say.
11
Maybe we should stop calling facial tissues... ‘Kleenex’. The WHO can name it whatever they want, but to the rest of us, it’s become Coronavirus.
23
I get a little unsettled when I read comments about how this is just like the seasonal flu and we should all just chill.
I'm not an epedmiologist nor do I have any medical training, but I do know a little bit about statistics.Anyone who is a skeptic regarding the potential exponential risks associated with the Covid-19 virus should study the four graphics displayed in this article at the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/feb/11/how-novel-coronavirus-spread-across-the-world-visual-explainer
I call particular attention to the last of the four graphics (two side by side graphs) which carries this header:
"The coronavirus is one of the most contagious and deadly of similar epidemics. In less than a quarter of the time, the number of cases and deaths has dwarfed those associated with the outbreak of Sars, a related virus, in 2003."
48
@Math Guy
What are you talking about? Nationwide in China the coronavirus mortality rate is at 2%. Those most at risk from dying are elderly, individuals with a weak immune system or pre-existing medical or respiratory conditions. This percentage comes from a nation that cannot properly give medical attention to the sick because it is experiencing a health crisis.
The mortality rate for the Flu in North America is around 1%.
The SARS mortality rate was around 15%.
Stop feeding and believing the propaganda.
The coronavirus is very much like the flu. The mass fear it is instilling in individuals like yourself has served 2 purposes. 1) Fill the pockets of pharmaceutical giants. 2) Serve hidden political and economical interests.
I'm sorry, but you're no "Math Guy"
8
@Chris The mortality rate for influenza in the US is around 0.1%, one tenth of what you mentioned. If the same number of people in the US were to get the coronavirus as got the flu this year, you'd be talking about 41.3 million * 2% = 826,000 deaths, compared to 57,300 estimated deaths from flu this year. It's hard to conceptualize such big numbers, and you're right that it's still relatively small, but it's a much bigger risk from infectious disease than most Americans are used to.
31
@Meg
Your numbers are based on mortality rates for China, not the United States. The rates in the US, for both disease transmission and mortality, would be considerably lower.
This was seen during the SARS outbreak. Even countries like Canada which have more crowded hospitals and patients left in hallways due to overcrowding plus more shared rooms and rooms shared by multiple patients as the norm saw significantly higher mortality rates from SARS compared to the US.
Bottom line is that comparing health outcomes in China and the US is like comparing outcomes between the United States in 1925 and today.
3
One thing China can do better than any other country is mass roundups, rapid building of hospitals, quarantine and containment to prevent person to person transmission of the Coronavirus COVID-19. With 15 cases in the USA and the virus found in all countries except countries of the continent of Africa and Antarctica, if China can stop any further spread more power to China. It has a good track record of stopping spread of another Corona virus SARS in the early 2000s.
China should share accurate information about what it knows about the virus so that the global results in the rapid eradication of the virus. response to eradicate the infection.
6
Why is this referred to as a mass roundup? Bringing the infected to quarantine is public health 101.
7
@Mkm Probably there is trademark authoritarianism in the country's medical management ...
4
There are some videos (people in China upload them using vpns, etc) circulating of some folks being taken into quarantine (Four hazmatted folks each grabbing a limb and carrying the resisting persons out of their homes), officials welding/sealing all exits from buildings where there are infected people, and young children left in a dwelling alone because the adults were all forcibly taken into quarantine. Also, videos of quarantine centers having no real medical care, no inside toilets, et, are circulating. The quarantine centers SEEM to be a holding place for people to wait to die. “Mass roundup” helps convey the desperation and horrors associated with some of the quarantining going on in China.
26
@Mkm
Public Health 101? Not according to public health experts.
And quarantining certainly isn't helping if the sick are put in with the maybe-sick-maybe-not, and if they can't get medical treatment, which, as you can see from this article and so many others, isn't happening. Quoting from this article:
'"In the meantime, he was getting progressively sicker and finding it more difficult to breathe. He said that several security guards had been stationed at the entrance to his hotel to prevent patients from escaping and that there were no doctors or medicine available.
'“Send me to a hospital, please, I need treatment,“ he said, in between bouts of coughing. “There is no one to take care of us here.”'
13
I am concerned that a lack of eye protection is a serious oversight allowing many infections. "Over the glasses" goggles are available as well as regular goggles. The fast spread is alarming and that may be a contributing cause.
22
@PATRICK , and disposable gloves (frequently changed) as well.
1
World-wide, at this point there are about 60,000 cases reported and a little more that 1300 deaths. The deaths are overwhelmingly, nearly all of them, in the Chinese province containing Wuhan with a little more than a handful elsewhere in the world. That makes for an exceedingly low incidence and death rate. Of course, that may change. It speaks to something unique about the core area of infection which may reflect how China has bound so many people to remain in close proximity with one another. We are seeing the effects of the disease but also, importantly, effects of how it's being handled in China. It's a perspective to keep in mind when reading about the daily new infections and deaths.
6
Experience tells us that nothing the Chinese government ever says can be trusted. Whatever they're saying about the number of people infected and who have died, expect that the actual numbers are really 10X to 100X what they're saying.
33
@fact or friction Correct! This is worst than Chernobyl. It's hard to sweep under the rug long unexplained absences of tens of thousands (probably 200,000 missing by now). Uyghurs and minorities they probably got away with it because of geographic isolation and inherent otherness. Not so easy in modern industrialized cities.
8
@Friction: it is instructive to read about the US military’s coverup of the Spanish plutonium accident.
Then again, the Chinese government is calling people to account in the Wuhan case, and steps are being taken. It is wrong to prejudge. Let’s see what the final analysis is before imputing wrong motives in this case.
1
Various news images show thousands of people wearing cheap masks that are worn with the ostensible purpose of avoiding infection by the coronavirus. Those masks are not air tight. People are being sold a "bill of goods" about the value of the masks.
5
This is going to be ruthless. China is well versed in "mass roundup" and has facilities and support personnel already in place to do that for very large numbers.
The irony of the education centers that were built for "educating" Uyghurs now soon may be getting used for "recuperating" everybody.
7
By all indications they've been keeping everyone on that cruise ship until they're all sick. Left in their cabin rooms to deal with it. All the time, spreading more germs. What could be worse, than getting locked down on a cruise ship as the virus spreads...I've always had a low opinion of cruise ships, but this is beyond the pale.
74
@Mike C.
This is the stuff made for a Stephen King novel.
I can't imagine what a nightmare it must be to be on that ship.
9
@Mike C.
The Japanese government would rather the people on the ship to infect each other than bring them ashore to house them in a larger facility that can better separate the sick and the well.
4
@Mike C.
To quarantine all passengers on this ship was the most idiotic decision the Japanese government made to date.
Does anyone except me think that a ship in such circumstances is an incubator for spreading the virus?
Taking all of them off and putting them in quarantine even in stadiums, etc. where medical personnel could keep an eye on them would have been much smarter.
I hope the passengers of that ship sue the Japanese government.
Our stock market keeps hitting new highs as if coronavirus epidemic is over and Trump is reelected. Money trumps everything, even common sense.
13
PLEASE, NYT, report on how many people are SURVIVING infection with this virus, and what their experiences of the illness, recovery, and life so far afterwards.
Without this kind of reporting as well, you may be spreading a possibly inaccurate and harmful impression that the virus is always, or almost always, deadly to humans. An impression that furthers the psychological torment of those infected, those who’ve come in contact with them, and their families, all of whom may then be stigmatized or worse. Mindlessly stoking panic or withholding credible hope-sustaining information is not what journalism is for, and we need a fuller picture.
71
@Mother WHO waited before it called this epidemic a pandemic. The thing about novel corona viruses is that they can kill indiscriminately and without being seen. It is good to fear them. Health experts and health practices kick in and people will take protective measures and send help and supplies. When there is a bomb raid in Syria people go running for cover. Fear can save lives.
4
@Mother
Exactly! Finally some common sense.
Nationwide in China the coronavirus mortality rate is at 2%. Those most at risk from dying are elderly, individuals with a weak immune system or pre-existing medical or respiratory conditions. This percentage comes from a nation that cannot properly give medical attention to the sick because it is experiencing a health crisis.
The mortality rate for the Flu in North America is around 1%.
The SARS mortality rate was around 15%.
2
@Chris Please cite your source saying the mortality rate for flu is 1%. Per the CDC's data, the mortality rate for flu is generally around 0.1%. That's a big difference.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
20
The origin of this killer virus is most likely the Wuhan Virology Lab, not a wet street market in Wuhan.
From Science, “Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak’s origins”
By Jon CohenJan. 31, 2020 , 6:20 PM
“Concerns about the (Wuhan Virology Lab) institute predate this outbreak. Nature ran a story in 2017 about it building a new biosafety level 4 lab and included molecular biologist Richard Ebright of Rutgers University, Piscataway, expressing concerns about accidental infections, which he noted repeatedly happened with lab workers handling SARS in Beijing. Ebright, who has a long history of raising red flags about studies with dangerous pathogens, also in 2015 criticized an experiment in which modifications were made to a SARS-like virus circulating in Chinese bats to see whether it had the potential to cause disease in humans. Earlier this week, Ebright questioned the accuracy of Bedford’s calculation that there are at least 25 years of evolutionary distance between RaTG13—the virus held in the Wuhan virology institute—and 2019-nCoV, arguing that the mutation rate may have been different as it passed through different hosts before humans. Ebright tells ScienceInsider that the 2019-nCoV data are “consistent with entry into the human population as either a natural accident or a laboratory accident.””
30
@Charlie In Taiwan
The following text appears in the same article which you cited:
'The viral sequences, most researchers say, also knock down the idea the pathogen came from a virology institute in Wuhan...
'Conspiracy theories also abound. A CBC News report about the Canadian government deporting Chinese scientists who worked in a Winnipeg lab that studies dangerous pathogens was distorted on social media to suggest that they were spies who had smuggled out coronaviruses. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is the premier lab in China that studies bat and human coronaviruses, has also come under fire. “Experts debunk fringe theory linking China’s coronavirus to weapons research,” read a headline on a story in The Washington Post that focused on the facility.'
The full article can be found here:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins
I would welcome comments or clarifications from any epedemiologists who have read the Science article.
While I am very concerned by the trend lines suggested thus far, I think we need to very cautious in jumping to conclusions regarding the source of the virus itself until more studies have been conducted.
23
@Charlie In Taiwan Thank you! This is exactly what many have been saying. As unsavory as these illegal food markets are (and they should be cracked down on for the sake of the environment and species conservation), they've been in practice for decades, so have their densely populated cities. It doesn't make sense for this sudden "jump" to occur in late 2019 and not earlier, or steady ramp-up after SARS. This has man-made accident written all over it.
9
No! Read the original letter cited. Charlie has quoted just a small part of the letter. The letter, in its entirety, is saying we just don’t know. It even says that each time there is some outbreak, there are always people saying it was ‘man made’, which NO ONE in the scientific community is saying.
8
The ease with which people are getting infected is shocking. This is from latest Honk Kong infections.
The number of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) cases in Hong Kong has increased to 53 as of 8pm local time on Thursday, after three new case were confirmed, Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said.
One of the additional cases involves a 43-year-old man who has good past health and lives in Hong Kong's Tuen Mun district. He had no history of travel during the incubation period, but attended a family banquet on January 30 where the patient of Hong Kong's 47th case was also present.
The other two cases involve a 67-year-old woman and her 37-year-old son. They both had no history of travel during the incubation period, but had dinner with the patients of three previously confirmed cases at a restaurant on January 26.
10
@IdoltrousInfidel Yes, everyone should fear COVID-19. You can be in good health and not even know you are a carrier. Other people can be in good health and then become infected. A slight sneeze a cough or whatever can be the vehicle for a virus.
2
I thought I read statements by health officials that masks are not effective, but frequent hand washing is essential. So why aren't more people wearing gloves?
9
@Dave gloves don’t necessarily help - like masks, there are lots of ways to use them incorrectly (eg you’d be changing loves each time you needed to use your phone, touch any part of your body, etc), and provide a mental barrier that may be stronger than the actual physical barrier. Hand washing actually gets rid of germs, vs the gloves which keep them on, juston the other side of a barrier.
11
@Dave
From what I've gather, it is easy to get contaminated when taking the gloves off.
Probably there are other reasons like shortage, etc
Best practice, as we all know by now, is to avoid touching your face and wash hands as often as possible.
4
I think the chinese policy of rounding up people suspected of corona virus and dumping them in hotels, motels, stadiums, exhibition halls with almost no medical care is counter productive.
It may be better to keep patients with mild symptoms at home and quarantine families in their home setting. That way only family members are at risk and the patient is in a home setting and relatively more comfortable.
Only serious cases should be moved to hospitals, which are overwhelmed with no spare beds.
Its a gigantic challenge and my best wishes and prayers for people in the front line fighting it.
16
My neighbor just cam back from China on Tuesday and he's not self-quarantining. First of all, I thought no flights were coming from China and now people are arriving without restrictions. Granted he may not have been in the hot zone, but I thought the whole country of China was now considered suspect? He left DC January 18 to China for the Lunar New Year celebration and returned February 9.
68
Could it be that he traveled from Hong Kong or Taiwan? The interpretation of “Traveled from China” really depends on who you are talking to.
4
@Andrew
Its dangerous and God help us. In our office we made sure that an employee who returned from China, works from home for next 2 weeks. We cannot say, if he is effectively self quaranting at home.
24
@Andrew
Where was your neighbor's connection? The US is blocking flights from China. As far as I know though, Europe is not. The US is not blocking flights from Europe. Ergo, the disease moves through the Atlantic rather than the Pacific.
If I wanted to get out of China, I'd go spend a few days in Germany on a tourist visa and fly back to the US from there. If anyone asks me about China, I'd lie about my whereabouts. The disease lands safely in Newark airport. Have fun.
18
There is no mention in any of these articles about medical treatment for the virus or its symptoms - so why are people at the initial stages of the disease being packed into stadiums and schools if there is no medical help that can be provided? Surely the risk of contagion would be less if they just stayed home.
13
@Megan Exactly. As if this could never happen here, it's only a "Chinese" thing. The coverage of this is terrible. Why are we all still going to work? That's the real question. Gotta keep that economy humming, lol.
This week, in the United States of America, 7.1%, just 0.1% under the CDCs categorization of "epidemic", of all deaths in this country were from THE FLU. That's about 3,500 people. Twice as much as the coronavirus has killed worldwide in 3 months.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap
But we're just going to work. Going to school. Keeping the machine running.
China's got a problem though.
3
@Megan
I think the virus is so contagious that anyone exposed to it, will catch it. The severity of the symptoms may vary but it looks like everyone exposed may get it. So they may be trying to reduce the total infected pool of
6
@Megan There is no medical treatment for viruses. Best that can done is to focus on the symptoms.
1
USA has evacuated about 800 Americans from Wuhan and 15 of them so far have the coronavirus, with more to be expected as per CDC.
That's about 2% of the people evacusted from Wuhan, before they cross infect others. That 2% number has held consistent about other groups evacusted from China.
In China, you can expect that the rate of infection among the population is more than 2% of the population, because infected patients continue to infect others , just because the numbers are so high and they cannot be isolated as effectively ,as have been done in USA. So 5% is a more likely infected rate among the population.
So in Wuhan province alone, with 50 million population, at 5% infected rate, there are 2.5 Million corona virus cases. I hope WHO does some independent analysis and comes up with realistic numbers.
32
@IdoltrousInfidel That’s not true. There are 15 total cases total in the US. Only 2 or 3 are from the ranks of the the 800 evacuees. That’s less than 0.5%, not 2%, not 5%. The rest of the 15 US cases are mostly among thousands other travelers returned from China in late January. 3 out of the 800 is actually lower than 50k infections out of the 11MM Wuhan population currently reported by China. There are other errors in your comment, like Wuhan is a city, not a province.
Please learn the facts before throwing around words and numbers as if you are educated and making sense.
11
@IdoltrousInfidel Not all of the 15 cases are from those who were part of the evacuation. Most of them were in people who traveled back from China on their own.
6
Add in the worrisome rumors from multiple sources of funeral homes operating cremation furnaces 24/7 in Wuhan right now, and the whole picture looks frightening.
I just know that cities don’t round people up, spray disinfectant in the air in cities, and order immediate cremation of infected bodies for deaths that are similar to normal (Not the 1918 Spanish flu) seasonal flu numbers.
10
This is all really concerning, and increasingly so as the days and weeks pass. I would like to know more about the virus: are people recovering? How many have it and don't need hospitalization (it feels like a regular flu)? Should travelers flying domestically in the US take precautions, and if so, what is effective? Could the virus possibly be traveling undetected within communities in the US already?
37
@Emily Australia has had 15 cases of the virus, all of them were isolated and looked after by the qualified medical practitioners. Five patients have recovered and are now home with their families. The rest continue to improve. Travel restrictions to/from China have been extended and appear to be working but this virus appears to be highly infectious and currently nobody really understands its mutating capacity. Our Government measures may appear draconian to some wanting to enter Australia but their responsibility is to protect Australian citizens and in this instance they have our total support.
1
@Emily
You ask good questions.
1
Air pollution in China and other parts of Asia (from burning coal, low quality diesel and plastic) cause many people of all ages to suffer respiratory distress. This may increase the likelihood of catching the virus and make it more severe if infected.
56
The Chinese are the largest consumers of cigarettes of any nation in the world - in addition to having very bad air pollution.
6
@doug mclaren The CCP government has called for a war on pollution. Now they are in a people's war against the virus. The lesson here is that we are our own worst enemy not this nation or that nation. Everyone should elect leaders that work to protect health and life. If a country does not have a electoral process, they need one.
2
@doug mclaren
It 'may' increase the likelihood of infection, it may not. For all we know, air pollution might be protective against the virus. There is no data. We have no idea.
How did the virus reach this woman or the taxi driver? Or the Japanese official who was infected? Have Japanese authorities failed their people by not conducting the ship’s quarantine properly? Did they give their official a faulty biohazard suit or to train staff and meticulously supervise their donning and work in and removal of said suits?
5
@Mother Hi, Mom! I think that this means that the virus is *very* infectious. It is important.
Almost 30% of our mild colds are caused by human Corona viruses, so we just need to add yet another one to our sniffles and move on. For folks with preexisting conditions, any flu or illness can be deadly, so just take the same kind of precautions. As our global economy becomes even more inter-dependent, we are going to be transferring a lot more than just economics. I hope people who vote in November remember that our present government, with their current proposals to disarm the CDC with funding cuts, disabling scientists, destroying food safety and environmental safety issues, will increase the likelihood of not being able to address the future safety of Americans. Simply having a great economy does not guarantee you will live to earn or spend your money. Please vote Blue.
166
@MakesNoSense I don't think Meena is denying the danger of flu virus. The issue is that these viruses mutate all the time - hence the need for new flu vaccines each year. Every now and the, a mutation will break out which is very contagious and dangerous. Remember H1N1 / Swine flu / Spanish flu? The point is we need to have a well funded and active public health system including enough vaccine production capability to defend against these periodic outbreaks. When funding to our public health services are cut, THEN that is denial at work.
16
@Meena Advice for “folks with preexisting conditions to take same kind of precautions “ is simply mean, inconsiderate statement. Big chunk of US population have preexisting conditions, sometimes due to their lifestyle, but many times due to no fault of their own. Covid-19 is much more serious than flue or common cold and it cannot be taken lightly.
17
@Meena its not the virus but the secondary infection with treatment-resistant bacteria that is scary. After Spanish flu pandemic, it was staphylococcus that killed because we did not have antibiotics, but now we have many but most do not work.
6
If the test they have been using is only 30 to 40% accurate, depending on what that means, then the number of false positives may be or actually is huge, meaning that the number of positives who actually have the disease may be only a small proportion, which places all the statistics we have been seeing into some kind of netherworld.
It would be nice to know what is actually going on.
22
There’s no indication which way the test fails. It’s just as likely that there are a huge number of infected people who tested negative.
This was Dr. Wenliang’s experience according to the article.
15
@John Binkley
Reports patients from those being quarrantined in CA said they tested NEG 4-5 times before testing positive so these test may ere on the side of producing false negatives not false positives. The 30-40 % accuracy was reported from those given Chinese patients with no indication of what type of inaccuracy they were experiencing but I would be more concerned about it looking like the false negatives seen in the CA population. These CA people have been isolated fully from each other since arriving and thus there eventual positive test result means they have carried some level of virus into quarrantine but though undetectable over the course of multiple tests. It seems unlikely the issue with accuracy is falling on the side of false positives. And yes, it would be nice to know exactly with testing. Reports are not specific enough, though it's pretty easy for journalists to ask for this clarification and report in more detail on a critical concern like testing accuracy. Still, I don't think your scenario is at all likely.
8
@Name
Well, I hope you can see my point, despite the typos. Threw that comment out a little too fast...
The astonishing numbers of infected people either on the cruise ship (over 230 so far) or a hotpot gathering in Hong Kong(11 of 20) provide additional support on my assumption that high humidity will promote spread while very low humidity may kill the virus right away.
I understand that humidity should not be the sufficient or only parameter to cause an infection or not, maybe unless it is too extreme like that on the plane . From WHO , I find that the normal humidity inside cabin is under 20% . Would this be the reason that no confirmed transmission has been recorded so far by someone sitting close to a virus carrier this time ? Would the COVID-19 die easily at humidity under 20%? On the other hand, why was spreading on plane occurred during Sars period whereas the number of current air passengers carried for China is 200% more than 2003 but with no case ?
9
@John Lee
The general thinking is that high humidity causes free floating viruses to fall to the ground faster than low humidity. They're easier to clean and less likely to be inhaled from the ground.
Viruses don't need moisture to thrive, they're not living, eating, breathing things. They're little self contained eggs just waiting for a host to incubate.
14
@John Lee To all who have been commenting that the presence of the virus in Singapore defies the principles that coronaviruses tend to fare less well in high heat and humidity -- given that Singapore is a densely packed nation of 5+ million people, half of whom are using public transport daily, the rate of spread looks relatively controlled. In contrast, on Diamond Princess there were at least 12 known crew member infections and the crew can pass the virus on to the passengers since they were going door to door delivering food and activity items to keep the passengers entertained.
11
@larkspur Thanks for the info .
What else may contribute to >200 infections in one cruise ship versus none on hundreds of planes ? I just do not believe it is purely by chance or only isolated cases .
2
The question posed by the new cases that are apparently not related to the quarantined cruise ship is- How did this corona virus appear in three widely dispersed geographic areas. Clearly we need more data to ascertain if we have the spread of one virus or the appearance of independent unrelated viruses. Before running off at the mouth and pen and concluding only one virus is involved the media and the public should wait for the science to provide facts.
10
@Tom. Yes wet markets are clearly the proximate cause, and widely known since SARS to be the most likely source of pandemic threat.
But their is another alarming aspect to what caused this crisis and one that in particular all those in the US should weigh heavily. That is a pervasive systematic cause of policy influenced by expectations from leadership. Expectations that clearly warped information coming from the provincial level through December and January. Today many wonder about false reporting from China and for good reason, for China is now fighting a massive provincial epidemic while simultaneously fighting at least a dozen other smaller potential epidemics through the country. Anyone of these has the potential to bomb out into regional epidemics.
Viral epidemics do not listen to false facts, false reports, or false hopes. As Justice does not listen to false facts, false reports or or like the current GOP leadership false hopes of the President’s pervasive influence on the Justice Department and the Judiciary. We in the US must now fight as we have always done on multiple fronts for our common interests are clearly known and much indeed all is at stake.
41
I agree with the lady in the net and blue gloves....
Shouldn’t everyone be wearing gloves?
27
@MIMA Gloves may be more helpful than masks which should be changed several times a day - masks get wet and are not effective.
9
@MIMA
Masks keep you from touching your face with hands you haven't washed. The mask is a constant reminder never to bring your hands anywhere near your eyes or mouth.
Gloves are only effective if you change them constantly and they never rip. Depending on the job, this is easier said than done. Try mopping a gymnasium floor with a wooden handle and disposable gloves. Better to just wash you hands long and hard when you're done.
Also, if you accidentally touch your face with dirty gloves, what good did the gloves do?
3
@MIMA - A glove will do no good if I rub my eyes or my nose with that glove. Think of gloved hands as a pair that have not been washed all day - yuch!
China has a self inflicted flesh wound which risks contaminating many more countries. However instead of casting blame it would be more productive to produce the vaccine.
13
@Arnie
“produce the vaccine”? What vaccine? This is a novel virus discovered a few months ago with much more unknown about it than known. Producing a vaccine takes money, resources and most of all time. It takes years of testing in the lab on animals and then ultimately in the field on human beings before it is ethical to declare a vaccine safe and effective for use. All the time development and testing are taking place, the virus has the opportunity to undergo antigenic drift - making vaccine development the equivalent of hitting a moving target. The common cold is a coronavirus. It causes million of illnesses every year, has likely been around as long as we have and we still don’t have a vaccine. Remember when HIV was first identified? US officials said they expected to have a vaccine in testing within a year. That was nearly 40 years ago. Just this month the NYTimes ran a story about yet another HIV vaccine trial being shut down because it clearly wasn’t effective against the spread of the virus. Creating a safe, effective vaccine isn’t a matter of just saying “get it done” and throwing some money at the problem.
33
@Todd
1. Edward Jenner developed a vaccine in the 1700 for rabies without all of these tests.
2. There are now supercomputers that can speed up the process.
3. It might be just finding the right combination of antivirals...
@Yanni25
Jenner also had no medical ethical standards in place that could cost him his medical license and leave open to enormous liability whatever pharmaceutical company produces the vaccine. More to the point, do you really believe Jenner did no testing? Or are you just advocating for putting an untested vaccine out in the real world?
Yes, there are supercomputers that can speed up vaccine production, but that doesn’t eliminate ethical, legal and medical standards of practice in place to ensure that vaccines are both effective and safe for use.
I agree that the most likely successful treatment option will be a regimen of drugs already in existence. The Chinese government finally accepting outside help from the WHO and the US CDC is a big step in the right direction toward finding the best treatment and containment options for COVID-19.
1
What happens to a provincial leader after they are fired by the Communist Party? Retirement? Reappointment? Emigration?
16
@Observer
Depends on the reasons.
If they are convicted of causing severe harm or death to Chinese citizens, generally they receive a death sentence.
If they are convicted of corruption, depending on the severity of said corruption... either prison sentence, long prison sentence, or death penalty.
If they are simply convicted of incompetence on the job... they are generally dismissed from both job and party.... and that pretty well ends their career as anything other then a store merchant.
Excellent question. I talked to my contacts in China. It turns out that there is a special well trained squad that does the firing.
22
The number of infections is double due to new diagnosis. Then why the number of dead is also double than yesterday?
46
@Luna The mortality rate will lag behind the diagnosis rate. If there is, for instance, a week on average between onset of symptoms and death for those patients who die, the mortality rate will mirror the diagnosis rate from a week prior. So it will continue to rise as the diagnosis rate begins to decline, then it will decline too.
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@Luna I do not know, but I fear it was the other way around...when the officials found themselves with 250 death cases that could not be hidden any further...so, to keep the fatality case rate at 2,2%...more confirmed cases were needed. Otherwise, fatality would have gone up to almost 3% in a single day…
Anyhow, we will not know fatality case rate until the epidemic is over...SARS in its first few months was considered to have a fatality case rate underneath 4%. Finally we ended up with 9.6%.
This time, we may (hopefully) stay far underneath SARS case rate...but that doesn't necessarily prevent us from a very high death toll. Spanish flu is said to have had a fatality case rate of no more than 2%.
Sorry for These inconvenient figures.
AND I do not think we should panic. But I DO THINK, we should take this Epidemic as the serious menace that it is and bring up all we have to prevent its further spreading.
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@Luna
When they changed the diagnostic criteria a number of people who had previously died but not listed as having been infected with the Coronavirus suddenly had a new cause of death. Same goes for a number of sick people who was previously not listed as being sick from Coronavirus. So you get one day of a huge jump in numbers reported for both deaths and infection. Tomorrow we will be back with about 2000 new cases and about 100 new deaths.
The use of clinical diagnosis is a bit problematic since it will end up counting some influenza cases as Corona cases. That would be fine if they did individual isolation of Corona cases. However, they are warehousing huge numbers of "confirmed" Coronavirus cases in big open halls. This means that people with the flu and people with the Coronavirus will be cross-infecting each other. This could be the biggest mistake since Japan decided to quarantine people in a cruise ship.
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I think the real problem is the CCP and Xi Jinping. So there’s no solution for coronavirus in that great masterpiece, Xi Jinping Thought? What a surprise.
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The current pandemic, like most pandemics, originated in one of the many live animal markets in China. Like the coronavirus crisis, both the avian flu outbreak and SARS were traced to this dangerously unsanitary practice. The world is literally sick of "wet" markets. If China's government cannot put an end to them, the nation should face an international embargo and quarantine.
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Because it gives the Party leaders an opportunity to show they are doing “something “ in this national crisis. In a totalitarian government the show is more important than the substance.
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Your post raises many disturbing questions. People everywhere need to prepare themselves. We may be in for a global shift we’re not ready for.
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Maybe, maybe not.
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