I was a 9th grader back in 1973 and it was the first day of my small animal science class. As I entered the room, I noticed an aquarium sitting on the teachers desk. Inside were 3 adult male mice and 3 pregnant adult females. The teacher called her experiment, "Mouse Nation". Today she declared, we would all see and understand the importance of "population control". As time progressed, the aquarium became so populated with mice that there was barely room for them to stand. So populated that when we walked into the classroom one morning, all 4 sides of the aquarium glass was covered in blood. "Whether it's an animal or human nation, this is the result when a population reaches it's peak". She went on to say population control is something all nations in the world must deal with at a certain point. Whether it's releasing a deadly disease, handing out opioids like they're candy, allowing the use of tobacco & alcohol, filling our foods with sugar, to allowing the sale of a weed killer proven to cause cancer, it's all about population control. She told us it's not that all nations are not evil but rather all nations face a necessary evil.
Seeing "Mouse Nation" cannibalize itself and listening to the teachers declarations that all governments must control their populations at some point by killing it's citizens was a lot for this 9th grader to take in. I've always wondered if she was right or just had radical views. Your thoughts?
1
If the epidemic reaches the US, expect panic, shortages, and prices to go through the roof. Finally the Fed will have its inflation. Be prepared.
1
Was there a 'sudden' surge in deaths in one day or have they been negligent in reporting accurate numbers? It seems odd that there were 1100 deaths on Wednesday and 1370 deaths today. Has the virus mutated and the mortality rate increased exponentially?
1
If the Chinese government lied about the number of cases last week, who is to say the numbers they are providing now are accurate? The Chinese government has been suspected of lying about their economic performance for years, why wouldn’t they lie about this?
1
The sudden jump in infected cases should be greeted with a dose of relief. After all, it means the Chinese are making the situation more transparent. They're not trying to cook the numbers, so to speak. That's one step towards the right direction. Now what the Chinese need is outside medical resources to help it and the world to contain the virus. Yes, the Chinese are responsible for this disaster, but innocent people outside China are already the collateral damage. We need to fight the virus first and then assign the blame later.
6
@Chuck I'm not sure its a relief so to speak, but agree that hopefully this will also lead to China being more open with virus sequences and more case information that can help the rest of the world tackle this.
1
Why labels and names matter:
The American born child of ethnically Chinese immigrants, I have only ever wanted to identify as "American". And, in my naive youth, this seemed possible. I worked hard at school, I read, I watched TV, I did everything I could to learn a language and culture that my parents could not teach. I tried to fit in, to contribute, to be, in every way, an "American". But, through the years, I see that I will never be allowed to shed the "Chinese" in "Chinese American". Yes, I understand that wanting this means that I am not woke enough, but whites don't get criticized for shedding the "Irish", "Italian", etc. And keeping the "Chinese" has costs. For one, when my son applies to college, he will be held to a higher academic, and likeability, standard than his white peers. Now, more and more, I see that it isn't even easy to hold on the the "American" in "Chinese American". With rising US-China tensions, even before the current epidemic, I have been increasing viewed with the suspicion, if not outright hostility, usually reserved for citizens of an enemy nation. "Chinese" describes a nationality and an ethnicity but how many bother with the distinction? This is why labels matter.
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PS teddy Roosevelt do not believe in hyphenated Americans. It is only recently that I think it has become fashionable, in large part because some people like to use it to highlight what they perceive as difficulties They have had Deal with. I suspect the truth is that all people have had a variety of problems to deal with, and in America overcome.
14
A colleague at work once mentioned to me that because she was Chinese, other Americans assumed she was not born here.Since I am not Chinese I had never thought about that. On another occasion when I was visiting a white friend from Kansas, Who was living in San Francisco we passed a car accident at an intersection. She appropriately called it in to the local police because it involved young people. But when she called it in she described the young people as Young Chinese people. Obviously their ethnicity was irrelevant, And I do not believe she meant any disrespect. It probably never crossed her mind That the intake person might very well have been of Chinese ethnicity.Since I am Jewish I understand your concern, and say welcome to the club. University quotas have long been a problem for us too. I was glad to see an Asian association sued Harvard on this point.  only an ignorant person would think that China’s handling of the initial outbreak of the coronavirus has anything to With you.
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@The F.A.D. : Actually, Italian-Americans are facing the opposite problem. Sure, they can "shed" the label, but they are attacked (typically by non-Italian white people) for *using* the label.
I grew up in an Italian-American community in southern New England. Our county had the highest *percentage* of Italian-Americans of any county in the country. All of my grandparents came from Italy. I was raised with a lot of old-world traditions and identify strongly with my heritage. So much so that growing up, we all (my friends, my parents) simply identified as "Italian", no "American" modifier.
But now I am told that I cannot call myself an Italian-American. That I'm pretending to have an ethnicity when I'm really just another mish-mash of European whiteness. That I'm pretending because I feel lost for *not* having roots.
The worst of it is in the Pacific Northwest, where I used to live and often felt like the one of the only Italian-American in the region. White people can be so ignorant of the vast differences in people's experiences and identities.
11
Flu. The real danger is not this over-hyped Fear of the Month.
It is influenza. The CDC predicts up to 30,000 deaths this season in the USA alone.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
With 31,000,000 (yes million) cases. That's a whopping percentage of the population.
If flu got even a third of the PR that Coronavirus is getting, perhaps lives could be saved.
https://emcphd.wordpress.com
5
@Rev. E. M. Camarena, PhD
making the death rate using your numbers roughly 1 percent...
the Wuhan coronavirus has a mortality rate of between 10 and 15 percent.
perhaps you will volunteer to be a front line health care worker?
12
Influenza has had a lonher time in the wild. This is only 2 months old.
12
@Rev. E. M. Camarena, PhD Does your doctor show up in a hazmat suit for the flu.
13
Everyone is eventually going to get it. It spreads like the common cold and stays with you for life. If you don't die of pneumonia in the first outbreak, a recurrence when your immune system in weaker will get you years down the line. Flare ups will spread it to everyone you contact. That is what they are not telling you. It doesn't go away. it just goes into remission.
5
You don’t have any basis for this comment.
4
30,0000 Americans died from guns in 2017. There was no panic about in the NYT or anywhere else in the media. Republicans cared more about protecting gun manufacturers and white nationalists than they did the American people. I. Wish we could get Republicans to care more about the vastly larger number of Americans dying from guns than the coronavirus which has killed exactly 1 dual Chinese-American and no other Americans. But Republicans love guns and they love that so many Americans die from guns which they refuse to do anything about. Republicans fail the American people in every way, 365 days a year.
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If they are under estimating the number of cases, but yet the deaths reported are an accurate count, that means the death rate is lower than thought. It suggests that it is not killing two percent as one would have surmised from the numbers being reported earlier.
@Chris Correct Buckethead. But if the numbers that are being reported ARE correct: 60,400 with 1,400 deaths, the mortality rate is still 2%.
the image that is the most telling so far was that of Xi Jinping the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, president of the People's Republic of China, and chairman of China's Central Military Commission making his staged appearance walking in an undisclosed location somewhere in Beijing in a surgical mask.
we have been told repeatedly for the past six weeks that the Wuhan virus is not air born.
Three days ago that changed and now the Wuhan virus could be airborne.
"Health officials in China are conflicted as to whether the deadly new coronavirus can spread through the air, with one expert saying 2019-nCoV could "in theory" be airborne."
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-could-airborne-chinese-official-claims-1486493
@Mary Elizabeth Lease It's been reported to be airborne for weeks. Where are you getting your (incorrect) information?
I get it that Americans don't trust anything from China and reflexively anti-communism, so I am not optimistic Sander's socialism will fly here. But from those comments I gather they are also biased and mathematically challenged. So I'll try to explain what the counting method change which the reporter failed to made clear to those here making comments without understanding. China has been reporting the cases of infected Coronavirus only if confirmed by the test kits, due to the shortage of test kits and shortage of medical facility, large number of patients in Wuhan were not admitted to the isolation wards and self segregated at home. Those were counted only as suspected cases and deaths resulting were not counted as due to the virus as local officials trying to put a best face on it. Beijing now has sent more than 10,000 medical doctors and nurses to the area to treat all suspected cases and require the reporting change of clinically suspected cases as decided by doctors as actual cases without requiring confirmation of the test kits. So the actual cases of infected and deaths will jump while the suspected cases will decline due to the reporting change. It means those suffering from the virus will be in isolation and treated.
2
Huh. Looks like Chinese officials have change the methodology again. This time resulting in more cases being reported. Does this mean the authoritarian government is able to learn from experience and/or admit errors? Or is the reality on the ground that much worse?
Anyhow, I still applaud the change.
1
The continuing confinement of the passengers on the cruise ship is inhumane to both passengers and crew. I urge the Japanese to better address the situation.
This country is suffering from something far more serious than Covid-19, ignorance and a lack of common sense.
2
@AFJAG
viruses make no distinction between between intelligent or ignorant...common sense or theoretical—we are all just hosts
This tense change of this grammar is entirely confusing>London is experiencing its first case of coronavirus, the British authorities said on Wednesday.
The patient, who is the United Kingdom’s ninth case, contracted the virus in China and is being treated at Guy’s and St Thomas’ Hospital in London.
Britain has confirmed nine cases of coronavirus infections, with five believed to be linked to a British businessman who may have contracted the virus in Singapore. The man, Steve Walsh, is believed to be the cause of five additional cases in France.
Image
Steve Walsh
Steve Walsh
Credit...Via FTI Consulting
On Wednesday, Mr. Walsh released a statement saying he has been released from the hospital and returned home, even as public health officials continue to try to trace the contacts of some of the people he is believed to have infected.
The strategic incident director of Britain’s National Health Service, Prof. Keith Willett, said Mr. Walsh had developed only “mild” symptoms of the virus and had made a full recovery.
“China’s ruling Communist Party fired the leader of the province at the center of the new coronavirus outbreak on Thursday amid widespread public anger over the handling of the epidemic.”
The Chinese people should oust the Communist Party from their country. Public anger for this and a thousand other crimes and indignities should finally rouse the Chinese to yearn for freedom and a government accountable to the people, not to the small circle of goons and thugs running their country into the ground.
2
Replacing one gaslighting Communist Party official with another one is utterly meaningless. The Communist party of China has falsified data for years. if we multiply the official figures for deaths and infected by 10 that would probably be closer to the truth
1
We should not ignore the facts that the medical facilities are running at maximum capacity, the medical staff are strained and medical supplies are in shortage. The infected patients might not be timely diagnosed. Even when they get diagnosed there might not be all the help one would get in a more normal state of affairs.
1
"Learn to distinguish reality from illusion." What reality is has been hard to distinguish from the press that reports a lethal pandemic endangering us all. When in fact the Coronavirus has killed and is likely to kill far less than the common flu.
1
Clever quote but you don’t know what you assert. The fatality rate in January 2020 of hospitalized patients with the 2019 novel CoV from Wuhan as reported this last week in JAMA certainly exceeds the generally reported fatality rate of hospitalized patients with flu.
Interesting that Zerohedge has been reporting for days on the this exact misclassification of cases and the resulting faulty statistics coming out of China. This is the same site that was booted off Twitter for "conspiracy theories ". It would be really nice if the MSM actually did some reporting and investigated the coronavirus numbers coming from China. China has shown a pattern of falsifying economic data, why should this be any different?
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@Robert Zero Hedge is a problematic site in many ways, with occasional bits of truth buried among the many conspiracy theories. They were booted from Twitter for publishing the name and personal contact info of a researcher they accused of being behind the virus, and asking people who were curious to pay the researcher a visit. Is that not correct? Plenty of scientists have questioned the numbers from China and are using actual science and methodologies to understand the scope. But Zero Hedge did more than just that.
6
Has anyone tested the drinking water for this virus?
4
Specialists in infection are Infectious Diseases physicians. Infectious Disease physicians is not offensive, but technically incorrect. From an Infectious Diseases specialist who appreciates your reporting on many topics in ‘ID’.
1
Times virus coverage is needlessly alarmist. For comparison, the WAPO reports that the great majority of cases are mild with more than 80 per cent requiring little or no medical intervention. For myself, I've stopped reading about the virus story in the Times and find more balanced reporting of it elsewhere. The sharp edges appearing in so many Times headlines and writing may attract readership but there are some, like me, who find them a turn-off.
3
I read that WAPO article. Maybe I’m a pessimist, but catching a cold that has a 1/5 chance of putting me in the hospital, possibly in critical condition, is still pretty scary.
Not to mention, it will bankrupt half the county, and possibly one or two insurance companies.
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So with this new diagnostic criteria, does this mean that 15,000 *new* patients with pneumonia, sufficient enough to register on X-ray, showed up in hospitals today?
Or are they reclassifying some of their backlog of suspected cases?
I guess we’ll find out tomorrow when they report again.
13
Half-answering my own question:
Bloomberg is reporting:
“Of 14,840 new cases, 13,332 are from the new category of clinical diagnosis using CT scans, said the statement. The death toll in Hubei rose by 242, of which 135 cases are from the new method of diagnosis. It is unclear over which time period the number of cases in the new category were detected.”
@NYT, this was apparently in the official announcement from the The Hubei national health commission. Why on earth wasn’t this included in your article?
2
Quoting 'official' numbers from China is laughable. They mean nothing.
Countless foreign reports and reports out of China talk of crematoriums running around the clock. Videos show police chasing down people for quarantine. Hospitals have been turning down people who are infected. The definition of 'infected' has been narrowed to exclude asymptomatic people.
Everything possible is being done to minimize the death counts - with continual reports from medical personnel stating that cause of death is being regularly misreported.
You wouldn't have a lock down on the scale we're seeing if this were not a tremendously dangerous outbreak. There are also more reports from around the world - from virologists and epidemiologists stating that this virus looks bioengineered. The level 4 lab in Wuhan has been working on viruses - specifically those transmitted by bats which are asymptomatic but contagious for long periods.
An escaped bioweapon - even if not in final form - would explain much of the behavior shown by this virus and explain China's reaction. We SHOULD be worried given China's response.
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Maybe this disease will provoke the CCP to start thinking there really is a link between a clean environment and "social stability".
One can hope :)
11
Latest Chinese official coronavirus numbers in.
China : Added about 15104 ( 30% plus jump ) to yesterdays numbers of confirmed cases , which jumped from about 44,000 to 59,747.
Number of deaths jumped by 252 ( about 20% ) to 1365.
Number of severe cases at 8230.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
13
How much can any of us trust the Chinese government at this point. They have threatened to criminalize people who don’t follow their orders one day to stay at home and the very next day demand that people go back to work on farms and in factories. Do they understand how serious the implications are if they are not honest in their reporting? Forget about the economy. What about collectively working through this honestly without having to worry about saving face so that the entire continent, surrounding countries, the world for that matter does not all come down and die of this virus.
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It’s almost funny, but also tragic that this morning we had reports saying that number of new cases of Covid-19 is possibly decreasing and several hours later we are informed that there is a substantial surge of cases.
There is more unknown that known about this new disease and yet it has been 2 months since first cases.Of course mortality rate is important, but so is morbidity. I would like to know how many people gets seriously ill, how many lands in Intensive Care Units, how many needs ventilatory support. So far there seem to be only one study (published by JAMA)giving answer to some of those questions and answers are rather scary-mortality rate around 4%, ICU admission rate 26%! Should we all rather take a deep breath and wait for more data, before we make final assessment of this epidemic? It is encouraging that so far new virus didn’t cause pandemic, but meanwhile our healthcare system should be making strategic plans how to address possible outbreak here.
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Why would we prepare? Trump’s big focus at the moment is getting Roger Stone’s sentence reduced.
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@Matt I am sure you read by now that Trump said the virus will be gone by April as the weather warms. I am serious.
I certainly hope that the Chinese citizens will consider their government's cover-ups and general ineptitude in the next Chinese elections. Oh, whoops. No elections in China. Never mind.
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Wonder if the presence of the WHO panel is why there is a change in methodology? Obviously these more accurate numbers indicate the epidemic is worse than previously indicated. However as many already suspected that the Chinese government was underreporting, the spike comes as no surprise.
If anything, there’s a bit of relief that we’ll have a proper understanding and honestly? It’s probably nowhere as bad as some right wing commentators were insinuating.
4
If you want a hypothetical synopsis of how this all plays out -- consult Camus....
11
Ooooo I love that book.
An American medical doctor told me that Coronavirus prefer cold temperatures. These virus unable to survive higher 75 degrees. So far this Coronavirus are not yet in any African countries. Probably because of the warm weather? Just curious.
2
@Tysons123 The virus is doing pretty good in Singapore at 95 degrees.
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Princess Cruises just sent a letter to those on upcoming cruises that if they’ve had any travel to China, Macau or Hong Kong or even just passing through an airport there, passports will be checked and not allowed on the ship.
2
Was the intention of publishing a photo of Steve Walsh to jog the memory of those that may have come in contact with him? If so, I believe you may have omitted the contact information for the NHS. Regardless, I find it rather strange that his photo was associated to the article, where it appears as if it came from a social media network. If that’s what we’re doing now, I’d sure like to see what Professor Willett looks like too!
8
“Coronavirus: Turn off air-conditioners and open windows to reduce risk of being infected, say experts”
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-turn-off-air-conditioners-and-open-windows-to-reduce-risk-of-being
Are there any results from China about using interferon, remedisvir, anti-inflammatories and NK cell suppressing drugs? Any reports of whole blood or plasma transfusions from convalescent patients? Bat viruses are no match for memory B cells.
1
@PictureBook wrote: “Are there any results from China about using interferon, remedisvir, anti-inflammatories and NK cell suppressing drugs?”
No, but I hear that powdered rhino horn has shown promising results — if you can find any. Otherwise, fall back on pangolin scales and trusty bear gall bladder.
Incredible!
SCMP says today's report is 242 deaths, and 15,000-ish new infections. These numbers are huge jumps from yesterday's, as compared to previous days. Hope the NYT finds out soon if this is true?
8
@Sigh
Those numbers are from Hubei Province and Wuhan. The cases have been diagnosed by physicians according to a set criteria that includes a CT scan for pneumonia but does not include the lab test. There are not enough lab tests to go around, and previous days' numbers only included those with a positive lab test. The new numbers give us a much better idea of how many people are very, very likely to be infected. This is according to a press release from Hubei reported elsewhere.
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@Sigh It was also reported that the number of incremental cases day-over-day coming from the new criteria was 13,332 so it would still be a 1000+ case day-over-day run rate from the old measurement method.
What you are seeing is a correction -- now they are acknowledging that past numbers were vastly understated because not everyone who was sick was able to undergo testing, and therefore now including the people who are diagnosed by clinical means instead (based on this article, that means lung imaging) -- https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-hubei-new-cases-covid-19-coronavirus-new-method-12429726
4
Hubei province, including Wuhan, has just reported 14,840 people diagnosed with coronavirus yesterday and 250 dead. They are counting as diagnosed those patients who have pneumonia and have had other causes of the pneumonia ruled out. No word on how many patients should have been counted as diagnosed previously under these criteria. Expect something from the CDC and WHO tomorrow because these numbers are catastrophic.
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@Barbara "Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases"
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
6
@Barbara
There are two categories of confirmed and suspected infections. The former had always required coronavirus diagnosis (swab kit) to be counted. The latter are clinical diagnosis (e.g. lung X-ray) without the swab (unfortunately, many also died from 'coronavirus suspected but not confirmed' pneumonia which weren't tabulated into the official death count). I believe the authority wants to eliminate the grey area (of suspected cases) to get a realistic handle on the situation, thus the jump in number. Otoh, this jump in numbers only happened in Wuhan/Hubei, but not the rest of China. Therefore, this might be attributed to initial overwhelmed medical care in Wuhan, and not an explosion of new cases (and death). We shall see in next several days.
7
@Tim Teng
Yes, I agree and attempted to put what you wrote in layman's terms. What we don't know is how many people would have been reported as infected in previous days had the same reporting been used. It is quite likely that a number like 15,000 would have been diagnosed each day for the past 3 or 4 weeks. And the number does not include people who have not yet developed pneumonia and those who were turned away from the hospitals despite having pneumonia because they did not yet have a lab test. All those people have been able to spread this disease, and some are likely to have died at home awaiting a test which is necessary in Wuhan to enter the hospital. I suggest that you look beyond the NYT for information on what has been going on in Wuhan.
8
We have a long planned bike tour trip to Spain in April. This is exactly the kind of news that leaves me to wonder how effective is our flight cancellation insurance. Will it provide reimbursement if we need to cancel the flight because the bike tour company cancels the tour?
4
That’s the least of our worries, George.
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@George Read the trip cancellation provision in your policy. Generally, though, if tour operator cancels tour they should give you a refund and I expect trip insurance would reimburse you for losses like what you lose on air tickets and other prepaid nonrefundable expenses. Note, however, that trip insurance bought through airlines may instead take position that since even "nonrefundable" tix can be changed for a fee, you should rebook and they will reimburse only for the change fee. You need to read the policy and call issuer if necessary.
1
How do you know he’s a Boomer?
What I'm trying to figure out is why the stock market is continuing to rise despite the fact that it's obvious that the coronavirus is going to have a pretty negative impact on the world economy.
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@Matt
Two reasons. One, the threat of an economic downturn may cause the Fed to lower rates even further, making stocks a more attractive investment. Two, given Trump's latest winning and the Democrats latest losing (including the primary fiascos), the stock market is now banking on four more years of Trump.
2
Wait a minute. Sure, people are dying, but this is affecting the global economy? This is serious.
9
The US Navy has a number of Medical ships which can be deployed during times of war and for humanitarian purposes. Those poor people, including the workers, must all be treated and evaluated by trained personnel who are properly outfitted to prevent further spread. They must not be abandoned.
They continue to infect each other under the conditions they are forced to live under. Cruise ships were never meant to handle major medical problems, and usually do a good job of preventing the spread of infection between large groups living in close quarters.
When the supposed 14 day quarantine is over, they will continue to be at risk of coming down with the virus, because some will not have been exposed on day one.
Please help all of these people.
2
@JN Not to mention the fact that the US military has multiple large military installations in Japan (including, I think, in Yokohama or nearby) that likely have some sort of facilities that could be used to house Americans in quarantine, plus maybe some citizens of our allies (if we still have any), like Canadians.
1
and now this...
"The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says some coronavirus testing kits sent out to states and to at least 30 other countries do not work properly."
...after this morning it was reported a hospital in San Diego responsible for a single infected patient inexplicably discharges that patient BY MISTAKE!!!
not to worry the stable genius tells us it is all under control and a world away.
12
per SKY News 2/12/20 19:23 GMT
the numbers out of China's official sources are underestimated by a factor of between 10 and 25.
Dr. Drek Gatherer
Virologist Lancaster Univ.
7
According to the Taiwan News article about the crematoria in Wuhan, they are operating at four- to five-times their usual rate (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3875039). The usual mortality rate for China is 7.4/1000 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_mortality_rate). Taking the lower range of that estimate, that would mean that the death rate there is now 29.6/1000, or 22.2/1000 more than normal. That works out as a COVID-19-caused mortality rate of 2.22% for the entire population. (Note that this is much higher than the rate of 2% of those infected that is being banded around.) A death rate of 2% of the entire population could mean 28 million deaths in China and 150million worldwide if the containment efforts fail, and if the characteristics of this disease stays constant.
Is that right?
Yes, every single person in the world will be infected. Genius.
1
Apologies, the source for this crematorium data might be unreliable. It is difficult to know, but this story has only been picked up by less reliable sources like Breitbart and the Daily Mail.
2
About China changing who gets counted as infected: are they testing non symptomatic people?
Aren’t there not enough test kits to test the very sick who are dying of “pneumonia” in Wuhan?
1
I would believe it would behoove most countries to not only study how other countries are acting with this epidemic. — Taking it one step forward I would want my country to test different models for handing this and god forbid future viruses etc.
I might even have a plan in place to scale up to house 100,000
I would have the military do practice runs to pick up supplies from manufactured quickly inventory them on bases and get it out to deal with an epidemic. FEMA, CDC, DHS all working together recruiting doctors and having everything in place to pick them up and scale immediately.
I would even suggest a week a year boot camp.
They do war games, naval exercises with South Korea.
I do not get Japan not setting aside an area NOW to to methodically transfer most of the passengers in rounds into off boat isolation.
Yet at a minimum work with boat’s owner to bring in cooked if not diverse interesting meals in disposable plates, and utensils. Reduce crew exposure?
There is no logic in continuing to have staff on contract for 12 hour shifts six days a week to provide room service, pick up dishes and bunk in fours.
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@David Wachter
Obama set up a leadership structure to ensure this kind of cross agency coordination and preparation in case of a major epidemic. Trump (& Bolton) got rid of it (maybe because it was something Obama created).
15
Thanks Obama!
9
coronavirus daily infection statistics can be found here.
These are officially reported numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
3
Disastrous timing for this virus to hit - Lunar New Year when all of China is celebrating socially and hundreds of millions are traveling through bus and train stations and airports. Could not have come at a worse time. What are the odds? Wuhan being the transport hub that it is, the location is awful.
6
... and it’s at the junction of a region where game meat is particularly popular .... and the wet market is next to the railway station in the centre of a high-speed railway system...
4
Amazing how some people seem to be willing to trust any wild-eyed internet rumor - but not a single word coming from the Chinese government. I guess in the Trump era anything you don't want to believe is per definition fake news.
10
Japan has the equivalent of one major hospital in China coping with the Wuhan virus embodied in the cruise ship docked in Yokohama Port near Tokyo and JAPAN—that would be the Japan arguably one of the, if not the, most advanced economic, technological and scientifically advanced nations in the world is running out of test kits for the virus.
"Japan faces COVID-19 test kit shortage as infections on ship rise"
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/national/science-health/japan-covid-19-test-kit-shortage-cruise-ship/
2
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Developing, validating and then manufacturing test kits for, effectively, a NEW disease isn't a process you can just switch on.
Public health labs around the world can usually whip up something quick and dirty for the first few cases but scaling that process is an entirely different matter. Something that stays reliable, robust and compact enough to be used by half trained staff in the field is a different order of challenge.
I mean, look, CDC have just messed up that very challenge.
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@nolongeradoc
my point exactly substantiating that we—the world is NOT prepared.
1
They are not stupid. What is stupid are those lacking the agility to realize its not business as usual.
4
Interesting. Just as very good news comes that it seems the quarantine measures in China are having effect, the NYT opts to not put that in the headline, and not even at the top of the article. Instead some trade show being cancelled is the headline. It would seem that any good news from China is not fit to print. Nothing to bash?
3
@AR
the problem being not a single metric coming from China's reported numbers is credible.
8
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
You know this how?
1
@nolongeradoc
from your The Times and Sunday Times University of the Year 2018
per SKY News 2/12/20 19:23 GMT
the numbers out of China's official sources are underestimated by a factor of between 10 and 25.
Dr. Drek Gatherer
Virologist Lancaster Univ.
Lancaster England
4
Outside of mainland China there has been 523 cases, 62 recovered (12%), 8 severe cases (1.5%) and 2 deaths (0.4%).
In mainland China there has been 44688 cases, 4809 recovered (11%), 8204 severe cases (18%) and 1116 deaths (2.5%).
The discrepancy fits well with the suggestion and reports that China (Wuhan/Hubei) was overwhelmed and initially only hospitalized/diagnosed the most severe cases (giving them a much higher % mortality and % severely ill cases.
7
Yes, and the numbers *in* China, outside of Hubei Province, look more like the international cases than like Wuhan.
4
What is the data source? It would be helpful to know.
@Ivan that’s a huge % of cases somewhere between recovered and dead.
5
I just read that the Bangkok Jewelry show; one of the biggest in the trade will still be held in February. But they will have the following precautions.
“To prevent the spread of the coronavirus, the show will pipe disinfectant in through the air-conditioning ducts and install nurses’ stations and also have rescue squads on site...” Sounds reassuring, I will pass.
8
Seriously!?
Pumping disinfectant through the HVAC? There’s a reason you can’t live in a house while it’s being fumigated....
9
How is it possible that despite the fact that there are many large Chinese communities in the continent of Africa the number of Corona infections is almost zero? Is this because goverments there have a more adequate approach or is it because there is a lack of knowhow and the right tools to identify people that are infected? To me it seems that countries with good healthcare and infrastructure have more Corona infections because they are better able to identify them then countries that don't have these resources.
26
@voorhout
Or it could be that coronaviruses do not survive well in hot climates.
8
We now have 7 days in a row without a new high.
Number of new daily cases:
Feb 3: 3239
Feb 4: 3927
Feb 5: 3723
Feb 6: 3163
Feb 7: 3436
Feb 8: 2676
Feb 9: 3001
Feb 10: 2546
Feb 11: 2071
That is called the turning point; it’s what happens when an epidemic is losing its battle with the health care professionals.
7
@Ivan that is true, if you believe that the reported new cases are an actual reflection of new cases. The Chinese hospitals seem to be stretched to the limit and there are numerous anecdotes of only the worst cases being tested at all.
26
@Ivan
Chinese hospitals are packed to limit and cannot take in more patients.
The ability to test coronavirus cases is also limited to few thousands a day.
So , you may have a million infection a day, but government can only confirm a few thousand a day and hospitals cannot take all the patients
There is the answer.
28
@IdoltrousInfidel
It is not true that "Chinese" hospitals are stretched to the limit. It is true that hospitals in Wuhan and in the Hubei province are stretched to the limit for isolation units. That doesn't say anything about the actual number of cases, just that the "limits" are not very high. Chinese health care is underfunded and have long wait even on a good day - so when panic sets in and everybody comes running to them even with a mild cold they get way over capacity. In China they don't have doctors offices - everybody goes to the hospital with anything. The number of test available has been steadily increasing so if anything the shortage of test kits should have been much more limiting to the number of diagnosed patients a week ago than they are now. Yes it is possible that there are 10 times more cases than diagnosed; but then there were 40,000/day a week ago and 20,000/day now. Still the same good news for the epidemiologists.
5
China looks it runs on a Ouija board and some really bad sci-fi PR.
5
Why does the NY Times repeatedly say the death toll reached “a new high”? Every additional death means a new high.
22
@Pat I think they mean for a given day.
6
I don’t think so, otherwise they will specify that it is the daily count. It’s just usual journalistic sensationalism. It’s the soul of journalism, even for paper of the record.
2
Having worked on global partnerships for tropical health systems, I've been concerned that Africa is not in the readiness conversation. Only today, Tulip Mazundar of the BBC, one of the bravest and most knowledgeable global health correspondent managed to corral a mid-level WHO Africa coordinator. He appeared to respond with canned talking points. A huge contingent of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative workers will go back to Africa after celebrating the Year of the Rat. I'm looking at how overwhelmed the health systems in China and Japan are not able to cope and I just crying for Africa. There could be a viral holocaust in the continent. I'm quite cross that the WHO DG was slow to react perhaps because China is financing the CDC-Africa complex in Addis Ababa. Should this be the case, it will be a crime against humanity. For the life of me I can't figure out why he did not pronto dispatch David Nabarro to oversee preparedness efforts on the continent. An African selling the continent down the river because of geopolitical considerations is unforgivable. This afternoon, I sent an email to the Vatican pleading with Brother Francisco to start praying for Africa. Nkosi Sikelele Africa!!!
27
African leaders need to modernize their countries for the 21st century. That includes infrastructure and health.
They can’t continue to rely on the best wishes and “aid” from others.
3
Please....... it is quite clear that the numbers being reported by the Chinese government are pure fiction. Crematoriums running non-stop, people being isolated at home. China has no idea of how many people are infected or how fast the infection is spreading.
China is admitting just enough to seem credible while minimizing the numbers they publicly admit.
61
Having 365 people who question the number disappear is not a good starting point for credibility by the government. Gut vas.
5
Wow. Please write an authoritative article with all your secret sources and some cites. No, don't have any? Oh, you just made that up, right? Have some common decency and sense please.
2
@cynicalskeptic crematories running non stop? 365 disappeared people. Oh my! Is this phase II of the infodemic?
2
Were the circumstances not so dire, reports of Chinese leaders’ “orders” would be hilarious; Ji orders this, a local government official orders something else, make sure every one of the 300 million migrant workers have transportation to their jobs, everyone looking busy and reassuring. Very like a stern and purposeful Putin sitting across the table facing a sheepish bureaucrat. All this brings to mind the hapless Nicholas ll, who famously complained to one of his ministers that he could issue orders to his bureaucracy, but nothing would happen. Our bureaucracy is bloated and expensive, whose is not? But given a directive, things happen or there are consequences.
5
meanwhile the Associated Press is reporting...
2 Russians flee virus quarantine, in dismay at hospitals
MOSCOW (AP) — One patient jumped out of a hospital window to escape her quarantine and another managed to break out by disabling an electronic lock.
Two Russian women who were kept in isolation for possible inflection by a new virus say they fled from their hospitals this month because of uncooperative doctors, poor conditions and fear they would become infected. Russian health authorities haven't commented on their complaints.
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3875388
10
I would have thought that the Japanese, with the phobias of all foreign, would have had had their folks wear hazmat suits while trying to take care of the passengers.
5
Virus Outbreak
The latest news on an outbreak of respiratory illness from a virus that originated in China.
https://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak
this story from the Japan Times make it abundantly clear at the top of the information food chain in every national government there is full blown panic.
Turned away on coronavirus fear, Westerdam cruise ship risks running low on food
Countries could continue to refuse to berth the Westerdam cruise ship carrying 2,257 people, citing unfounded fears of deadly COVID-19, until conditions on the luxury liner become so dire that it invokes an emergency.
The ship operated by Carnival Corp.’s Holland America Line could be forced to wait until it’s in distress — running out of water, food or fuel — before international law-of-the-sea conventions kick in and legally obligate the closest country to admit the vessel or provide help, according to maritime experts.
“The countries are all passing the buck until it lands in the lap of someone who has to take the ship because the ship’s run out of fuel or food,” said Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor of transit geography at Hofstra University in New York. “When the ship is in distress, the nearest port of call will be bound in this case to help. That’s the law.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/12/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/turned-away-coronavirus-fear-cruise-ship-risks-running-low-food/
8
There has been a lot of speculation about the development of a vaccine for the Wuhan coronavirus, virtually all of it overly optimistic. Here's the reality -- "A Vaccine for the Wuhan Coronavirus? Don't Hold Your Breath": https://issuesinsights.com/2020/02/12/a-vaccine-for-the-wuhan-coronavirus-dont-hold-your-breath/
2
Why does the NYTimes and much of the other major news outlets not add “recoveries” to the major statistics of “infected” and “dead”? Is it unknown? It doesn’t appear to be, so why? Perhaps selling hope gets less clicks than selling dread? I hope that’s not the case for the NYTimes. Please report “recoveries” so your readers are fully apprised of the situation. Thanks!
24
I am interested to know what the incidence of the virus is in NYC- this is , after all, the New York Times. Is Flushing Queens a danger spot?
3
@fritz
Here is a link to the latest tally of cases, deaths, and recoveries.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We cannot believe any of the numbers coming out of China; it is already known that people who were ill were sent home without being tested.
People have also died before being able to see a physician, and have certainly not been counted among the casualties.
On the Chinese-speaking news stations in the US, it is said that instead of manufacturing more masks, they are now busy making body bags; if true, this would mean the Chinese authorities already recognize or anticipate a much higher, devastating casualty count than reported.
22
@mm -check out the Taiwan Times.com....especially re:the hotspots seen from space over the crematoria in & around the Wuhan area this past month(s). Apparently the composite & heat indicate that the death toll numbers may be far more than reported. Add that to the anecdotal social media stories of citizens who have not been able to get family members in to doctors before their death, lack of testing, etc. and one has good reason to be skeptical about all these numbers.
My heart goes out to the innocent suffering folks in Wuhan.
Some of them may be alone or caring for an ailing family member in a small apartment with very little food. This could happen to any human, we are all connected.
9
Among the many different issues that will come out of this virus epidemic is the on going health problem for the cruise industry. Every season we hear of problems on a ship where passengers have gotten sick due to poor sanitation, now this. The underlying problem seems to be too many people crammed into too small of an area. Plus not enough time to clean the ship after one cruise leaves and the next arrives.
Up until now the thrill and fun have outweighed any thoughts of risk, that may be changing and a serious problem for the cruise industry if they do not take aggressive steps to reassure the public.
17
It should bring more attention to really dumb public officials that created the unneeded quarantine. People rant here about the stupidity of climate deniers or anti-Vaxers. These cruise ship quarantines show how little science these supposedly educated officials know. Bureaucrats in action.
@Bruce1253
People who take these cruises value superficial "pleasures" more than their own health and safetu/
These horrible floating cess polls and disease concentrators kill every charming place they dock.
They should be illegal.
God help the oceans. Is there no end to exploitation of our natural environment to make money?
1
The Chinese are preventing many many deaths from being reported as due to Covid-19 for two reasons. Their sketchy health care system is completely overwhelmed and beyond reasonable capacity, and secondly, all deaths due to respiratory illnesses are not being properly diagnosed. We have no idea how many cases there really are. Therefore the patterns of transmission information and the death rates are pure fiction and speculation. Don't ever expect the truth from the Chinese government.
42
@Michele How do you know all this? You sound so confident that I'd love to know what your sources you are drawing from for this very declarative statement.
10
@Jackey Michele is clearly witnessing everything first-hand from Cleveland Ohio, which (as we all know) is in close proximity to mainland China and its government activities.
8
@Michele Exactly, like why do you think it is sketchy? Have you ever been to a hospital in China and be treated?
6
It amazes me that people are not escaping off that cruise ship! Under what legal authority can the passengers be detained? I would rather spend time in jail in Yokohama than spend an extra hour on that ship, and when all is said and done, I'll bet the ship will have an astoundingly high number of Coronavirus cases.
I would also be contacting lawyers about the detainment and illnesses. Any competent lawyer can make the case that those testing positive on the ship did so because of the quarantine. I would be suing the cruise line for about $30 million.
Coronavirus is not Ebola, thank god, because if it was Ebola, the way this has been lied about and mishandled by the Chinese would be a world danger.
6
@MrDeepState
Er, 'quarantine' exists to protect people OUTSIDE the quarantine zone. Healthy people IN quarantine are quite likely to catch the disease as a result of being quarantined. That's how it works. That's why, generally, quarantine is unpopular with those forced to undergo it.
'By what legal authority'? I can't speak for Japan but here in UK, a statement of public health emergency has been declared. That triggers a number of dormant laws giving the government the necessary authority to detain, compulsorily, infected - or suspicious - persons. A sort of martial law for pandemics.
I'd be astonished if such legal tactics were not available to the US government.
15
@MrDeepState
The purpose of a quarantine is to prevent the spread of the disease to a larger population, at the expense of an isolated (detained) smaller population. Put simple, 'sacrifice' the few to save the many.
I empathize with those on board, and hope all recover, but I think they understand why they have to remain on board.
9
The number of cases and actual deaths from Covid-19 are far, far higher than reported in the U.S. The South China Morning Post has the details:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never
17
@M Davis Ever since the South China Morning Post was taken over by the government several years ago, it hasn't been worth the paper it is printed on.
I would like to see a graph, x=time and y=china Corona virus deaths over time AND China corona virus infections over time. Bubble maps don’t do justice to trends.
3
@High chapparal
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
1
@High chapparal A graph is only as good as the data used to produce it. A graph of that sort in the current situation would be pure rubbish.
@IdoltrousInfidel Thank you!
1
From south China morning post. How Coronavirus infection and mortality numbers are hugely under-reported.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never
9
Never understood why people agree to be voluntarily quarantined on a boat for weeks, virus or no virus.
7
The scariest fact so far is the Japanese official contracting the virus by simply surveying passengers. Presumably s/he wore a mask, washed his or her hands, used disinfectants, and followed best-practice, infection-preventing measures. And we keep hearing that more passengers on this ill-fated ship are becoming sick. I suspect COVID-19 is far more contagious than experts realize and can be transmitted through many other means than direct contact (perhaps even via ventilation systems). I wouldn't want to be stuck on that ship!
60
I heard one news report today that said it had something to do with the water pipes ventilation systems in buildings At the market place. It was on only one news report and then vanished. It makes one wonder about the safety of goods manufactured in China for a while.
Or maybe the official did not follow basic hygiene procedures and managed to infect himself or herself? Do we even know if the person was a nurse or a doctor? I would not draw any conclusions yet.
4
This situation is still rapidly developing. Has the virus mutated? That transformation alone can change the entire outcome - and quickly. Its a mystery how accurate numbers are even being arrived at. How is that even possible given the rapid spread and ease of transmission.
6
I don’t think there’s evidence yet that the virus has mutated. One reason for rapid transmission is that a cruise ship is, essentially, a gigantic Petri dish with its extremely close quarters.
Also respiratory infection is just going to spread rapidly because, well, we all need to breathe.
So far, the only thing we know is that the best prevention we can do is to wash our hands, and avoid touching our face (similar to cold and flu).
8
@Out There the ease of transmission isn't really an ease.
1
@Out There Novel virus pandemics mutate to strains of lower virulence, as did SARS. Strains of the virus which do not kill the host spread more rapidly and induce immunity. The lethality of this virus was initially 2%, a horrible tragedy but the 98% who survive will spread less virulent strains that confer immunity with mild disease. The essential measure is to quarantine the more severe cases until the less severe strains spread immunity. Equally important is to modernize Chinese agriculture to minimize species transitions.
19
Early reports had the estimated "infectivity" and "lethality" of this virus below that of SARS. It certainly doesn't seem that way recently. I find it very difficult to trust any statistics coming out of China, and these should be reported with a caveat by this news agency and others.
13
@NS That is due to the vastly increased mobility of Chinese citizens, not a higher lethality of the virus.
1
Why doesn’t it look that way? There have been hundreds of international cases and 2 deaths. That’s much less than SARS (and doesn’t rely on China for reporting).
5
@Adam Fourney I do think it's encouraging the number of deaths outside China are still low, but the long length of this disease, (from symptoms to recovery) shows that some patients still have a while to go before we will know their outcome. The truly concerning statistic (as we know it for now) is how many are requiring intensive care. On Sunday, 15% of the cases in Singapore were in IC. That's a very high number. My hope is that some of the drug trials currently in progress will net some reliable treatments to lessen the potential severity of further outbreaks and get that % down.
10
Wonder how many other patients this official infected during his survey of the passengers. That whole boat should be in hospitals not floating around waiting for the last person to become infected.
16
@GregP
If you do that, the patients currently occupying those 'hospitals' will become infected with coronavirus too. Some of those patients will discharged (in fact, there will be pressure to discharge them to make way for the infectious cases) and will infect more people in the wider community.
I'm not sure you get this 'quarantine' thing. The health of the wider community is the priority. The health of the ship's occupants is not.
And, the Diamond Princess has a complement, passengers and crew, of about 5,000. No country in the world, the USA included, has 5,000 fully staffed, fully resourced, infectious disease beds lying idle and awaiting deployment.
Those 'specialist hospitals' in London that the British corona cases have been transferred to? Not more than a dozen beds between them. 12 beds - for a local population of about 12 million. That's GOOD by global standards.
1
I wish the Times would clearly publish, every day, both the cumulative number of deaths from coronavirus AND the total number of confirmed infected.
And I wish they would publish them in the same paragraph.
Today, I simply can't find the cumulative number of people that have tested positive since the outbreak began.
I realize that neither data point is particularly accurate at this point given the number of people who simply can't get tested -- let alone treated -- in Wuhan due to a backlog of patients.
That said, both of these numbers give a sense of the trajectory and the death rate.
10
@Rose
You can get full coronavirus daily detailed statistics here
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
1
"...how to put more than 700 million workers back on the job without bringing together large groups of people that could allow the virus to spread.". This is the crux of the problem - they can't have it both ways.
25
I was told by my rep in Shanghai yesterday that an order I am waiting on is delayed because 'all Chinese factories are closed.' 'In order to avoid the virus expanding, now most of the Chinese villages, cites are closed.'
I found this to be a bit unnerving.
24
Here is a report from Hong Kong daily - South China morning post
The hospital directly called the funeral home to cremate his body, we weren’t able to see him in the end. My mother and uncle picked up his clothing, drove far away from the crowds and burned it,” she said.
Funeral homes in the city have been working 24 hours during the outbreak. An employee from Wuchang Funeral Home named Huang told Tencent News recently that staff were working round-the-clock shifts and often only have a few minutes rest between jobs."
-- Overwheming majority of dead are not reflected in state statistics.
36
Of the corona virus cases for which the outcome is known, here are the numbers.
Casesd with known outcome = 5,965
Recovered = 4,847 (81%)
Dead = 1,118 (19%)
.. and these are hugely under-reported Chinese govt figures. The mortality rate is close to 20%. There are more than 8000 patients listed by China as "extremely critical" , out of 40,000. Even Singapore, of the 50 cases there has now listed 9 as extremely critical.
The mortality rate is like 20% and not 2%.
31
@IdoltrousInfidel
I don't see such clarity. Is it the direct effect of the disease or the desperate treatments causing the deaths? Where have they spelled out the events in a logical order that can lead us to believe corona is the actual cause of death? So many unknowns and so much of vague presumption.
2
@IdoltrousInfidel if about 1000 died out of about 44000 cases, that is 1/44, about 2.5 %.
3
If it was that high, we’d have seen it already in the international cases.
You are counting only people in hospitals, not the mild (likely undiagnosed) cases.
16
A Japanese official testing positive after surveying passengers on a ship is scary. That tells me that the virus is not only highly contagious but also probably quite sturdy with regard to resistance to being destroyed by disinfectants or other environmental factors that would destroy HIV easily. The death rate still seems to hover around 2-3% with persons over 60 being more likely to have a higher morbidity and mortality.
39
@Girish Kotwal - Without more detailed reporting we must include the possibility that the official did not use protective gear properly, and that the ship has a serious problem with the virus being transmitted between enclosed spaces, possibly even the the on ship sewage system.
10
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The United States should be prepared for increases in the coronavirus, the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention warned.
Although most cases are in China, THERE ARE NOW 13 cases in the USA
The director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said the government, public health systems and communities need to work together.
2
In a notice issued by China's National Health Commission (NHC) on Feb. 6, it wrote that the classification of new Wuhan virus infections will be divided into four categories: "suspected cases," "clinically diagnosed cases," "confirmed cases," and "positive tests." Among these, "positive tests" refers to "asymptomatic infected patients" who test positive for the disease but have no symptoms.
4
That’s how the state deceives - it has a suspected category. It does that for non-performing loans (NPL). They know the loans went sideways, but the report them as ‘suspected’ bad loans.
2
Corona has been roaming the world since some time. We can probably expect it to peak in April in the US judging by the way accidental releases of those exposed to corona are walking amongst the rest of us. The panic around it has astounded me. It seems like governments, administrations, medical institutions are all panicking first and thinking after it's too late.
First, why did it start in Wuhan? There are wet markets all over China and many other Asian and African countries with animals packed unhygienically. Bats are captured and eaten in other places too. What is the event that makes Wuhan special? Did the corona native to bats undergo a seminal mutation that helped it jump to humans? Was the first infectious creature who infected others, a pangolin, a bat or really an asymptomatic human working in the market with this new, jumpy virus?
Secondly, is this strain or closely related strain already present in rural populations that live close to bats etc. Is it present in populations around the world that live in places with the fruit bat? Australia, India, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Middle east etc.
Third, what changed the course of SARS, MERS, Nipah and Hendra? All from bats and all as scary if not more. Why did they reduce? Was it weather patterns, medication, awareness, hygiene?
Four, please folks, eat healthy, stay healthy. Be hygienic, don't eat or drink everyone else's foods. And if you choose alternative medicines, stick to plants we cook with.
9
@Meena While its true that typical winter flus abate in the Spring because of higher temperatures, there is no rationale or evidence to suggest this is the case for COVID-19. If anything the virulence in Singapore should be a counter example to wishful thinking of Spring abatement.
20
@RH Irwin
I believe there is. Yes there is an outbreak in Singapore. But this is an infectious disease spread through bodily fluids. What we have to see is if it spreads anymore and how serious it is. SARS should have decimated South East Asia and it did not. It dried up with the summer heat and so far, thankfully has not shown up widely. MERS did the same. What we need to know is, how long does covid survive and at what temperatures does it survive the shortest. I am sure they are working on it. But going by all the bat propogated viruses, hopefully this too will be abated by just weather. The vaccine is a long shot. It is financially viable only if corona, like the flu makes its appearance globally every year. After all there is no vaccine for Nipah, Hendra, SARS or MERS is there? And trust me, all of these were worse than this present virus. Plus a vaccine.....well the flu is only 40-60% effective and that too if they they happen to gamble on the right strain for the season.
4
@RH Irwin Maybe, I don't know where those people got infected, but a lot of buildings in Singapore have air conditioning and citizens are encouraged to open windows for natural ventilation.
5
My gut feeling tells me the Chinese government is trying to play down the intensity of the situation. First by reporting the outbreak too late, then by stating the virus couldn’t travel through the air, and now this. My heart goes out to all Chinese citizens, who live under this suppressive totalitarianism.
56
I read this article twice to see if there was a date the “Japanese official” visited the ship. There is very little information about exposure/contraction times in most media updates.
22
@MF Look here: http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13121164 The official boarded the vessel on 3-feb and 4-feb in mask and gown. I wonder how many folks he has been in contact with since that date.
12
So far 175 people aboard the Japan anchored ship have tested positive for the coronavirus and have been removed to hospital. I would really like to know the health status of those people. What % have developed severe symptoms, how many require dramatic intervention (on respirators), how many are sustaining with milder symptoms?
Being anchored outside of China, it should be easier to get specifics like this on these patients and importantly, to feel more confident in the information. As a representative case study of the illness, its very useful to follow closely. As a reader, I want this information.
What news outlets are providing the specifics on these 175 passengers and crew? I've seen nothing more than the fact that they have been identified and removed. I want to know how this population of patients is doing, how they are being treated, and what the severity of illness looks like for this group as the days pass. Hey journalists, where is this coverage?
75
I agree
Maybe one less story about trump and a few statistics on known infectious cases.
6
@Name - Unfortunately,
"in December 2014, the restrictive Protection of Specially Designated Secrets Act went into effect amid opposition from international and local press freedom advocates as well as the Japanese public. Under the law, which had been passed in 2013, whistleblowers who leak vaguely defined “state secrets” can face up to 10 years in prison, while journalists who publish leaked information can face up to five years in prison. The law also grants ministers the power to designate certain information as state secrets for up to 60 years."
[ Freedom House, Japan ]
4
@Name Some of the older men (70-80s) from the cruise ship with pre-existing conditions are on oxygen and in the ICU. It doesn't specify what level of oxygen support is required.
5
It would be laughable if it wasn't so serious. Health officials being infected on a quarantined ship - infected people being released through paperwork mistakes the different ways the dead and infected are counted - statements like the virus doesn't live on surfaces and that washing your hands is the most effective way of controlling the virus. They say don't overreact but a whole country is shut down - governments are spending billions, trade worldwide has been disrupted - what's really going on?? You can't find N95 masks anywhere even the Doc who alerted the world died from it - don't you think he took precautions. I'm still scared!
83
The Chinese have CHANGED the way they “count” those sick with the virus. Only those with symptoms are now counted.
So they SAY there are fewer “new” cases. But really, they’ve figured out how to make it appear there are fewer. Simply by counting differently.
How can WHO (world health org) allow this?
There has to be a common rule for counting cases!
89
@TheraP - Due to a limit of testing resources, they only test those with symptoms. That has been true since the beginning though, because of the 1.5 months wasted doing nothing.
Furthermore, more cases without symptoms is better news - it lowers the fatality rate.
4
Does anyone believe the numbers coming out of China. Looking at stats from 2019 about 24000 people a day die in China are they being tested? I think not.
20
As the President of China and famously said, they have an advantage to being a dictatorship, and can pretty well put out information on challenged by a Free Press. Sort of like the queen in Alice in wonderland, Words mean what I say they mean, and I create guess they can create whatever numbers they think will float the boat.
7
Who was stigmatized? Are we going to rename the Spanish flu also? Cmon!
17
@PJ Atlas
The most important thing now is to protect everyone's feelings. /s
5
@PJ Atlas
The so-called Spanish Flu most probably started in a US Army training camp in Kansas. How would you feel if it was called "Kansas flu" or "US Army Flu"? It was only associated with Spain because Spain was not involved in WW1 so they did not have press censorship.
1
We humans should stop eating bats amongst other things. We can’t eat every living thing on this planet.
62
@Nick Humans should not eat any animal that eats other animals, period. (Fish being the exception) Dogs, cats, snakes, etc. That's gross. and this from a guy who eats a lot of thing others would call gross.
13
You got a good point there.
1
@Nick probably no one are a bat. A bat probably gave the virus to a mammal species people did eat. That might be a pangolin. But it's probably also pretty likely it was a pig or cow.
1
I'd like to get some confirmation that China has changed how to count infected or cured people, which would account for China's announcement that the infection rate is dropping. Can a reporter please look in to this? Thanks.
32
China has re-defined cases to exclude positive tests that are asymptomatic. So not only are they not testing everyone, they are also excluding some positive tests from the count! That's why the rate is slowing- dishonesty and redefinition.
106
As has been reported by various reputable Asian outlets yesterday AM in those time zones, by a health official in China, there are now “four categories” of infection and the and the one they changed two days ago was TESTS INFECTED but showing no symptoms. I would imagine that is why the numbers started dropping.
11
Where did you get this information from?
1
@Patrick
I know some people are desperate to remain frightened. However, if there is a change in the definition of a parameter you expect the same trend to continue but from a reset value. So in this case expect that the number of new cases drop when they change the definition and then continue to go up. That is not what the data show. Even if you look only at data from the rest of the (non-China) world there is nothing to suggest that this is an out of control epidemic.
3
"The death toll reached a new high, at least 1,113, but Chinese officials said the infection rate showed signs of slowing."
This is misleading. As used here, the "death toll" will always reach "a new high" as long as anyone dies and none of the dead are resurrected. While I am not saying that the official numbers can be trusted, the number of confirmed deaths over the past day does not represent "a new high" and has actually dropped a little. The total "death toll" at any given moment, however, is always "a new high" by definition. More humans have died by 8:50 AM EST, 2/12/2020 than at any previous point in history. See?
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So was the employee who became infected wearing protective gear during the inspection?
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@Erin
It stands to reason that protective gear might accrue infectious material on its surfaces as one travels or interacts in an infected environment. Then, if not removed carefully or decontaminated first, it’s possible to contaminate yourself in the process of removing it. It may be no more complicated than that.
Also, it’s worth remembering that the standards set up for working around Ebola patients, a far more dangerous interaction, were extremely rigorous to prevent inadvertent contact with the virus. And anything less for COVID-19 may allow the chance for auto inoculation.
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@Erin protective glasses weren't mentioned, for example. Someone sneezed...
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@Erin the following link is from NHK about the story. If you look behind the news announcer at the picture, the Japanese health people interacting with the ship are in full protective gear. Are they double-suiting like people dealing with Ebola? Don't know. But people speculating that, "Gee, why didn't they wear protective gear?" are probably one step behind, not one step ahead, of the Japanese health authorities.
As was seen with the doctor Li Wenliang, if you repeatedly expose yourself to a very virulent disease working day in and day out, sometimes it is only a matter of time before some tiny amount somewhere makes it past your defenses.
People treating this are taking risks for the greater good. Please respect that, instead of second guessing whether they put on their PPE. Of course they did.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200212_24/
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Where are the demographic reports? Who is vulnerable? That information would be more helpful than death tolls...
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@Sheba
are you a human?
if yes, you are vulnerable.
China is officially announcing that the spread of the virus is slowing? I trust this announcement not at all. China has demonstrated time and again that they will lie about public health hazards, if it makes the Party seem more in control of the situation.
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@Edith It's The RATE that is Slowing.
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@Willybee Oh! Well. That makes it better. Still means to most that that government is lying to everyone as much as ours is lying to us.
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Thank you. It’s patently absurd how these numbers are used without a proviso. It’s constantly reported that the Chinese government is repressing doctors, social media and dissidents who are trying to report on the virus. It’s reported that this is the biggest threat to China’s Communist Party in years and yet, the official Chinese numbers are used without provisos. Why?
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Yesterday while shopping In Walmart, the toothpaste display was nearly empty. Both Crest and Colgate. I have never seen such a thing! Either more toothpaste is made in China than I thought or a a key ingredient needed for manufacturing in the US is in short supply.
The other item that I was looking for pickleballs was completely unavailable also.
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Thanks. That was funny.
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@Sailorgirl
OMG!! Not pickle balls!! We’re doomed!
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@Sailorgirl Buy it online from Walmart, Amazon or Target.
So what have we learned and what will we forget in just a year or two.
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Yes. Americans have a very short memory....
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