Two things.
1. 12,000 people visiting a "shopping center" "in late January" means it was either a very small center or they're understating the numbers. While the end of January was Chinese New Year, and many Tianjin residents may have returned to their villages for reunion, the city does have 15 million inhabitants, so 12,000 over a week+ still seems low. An average Starbucks alone probably does 1,000+ pax/day.
2. The port cities of Northern China send many (~thousands, if not tens of thousands) sex workers abroad to the major and minor cities of Asia. If they went home for CNY and are able to return to where they work (CNY just ended Sunday), that could spread the virus widely.
Some are hollering "xenophobia" because other countries are keeping out mainlanders. That's ridiculous. The fact is the virus originated in China and China has tens of thousands of infections we know about so far. Any ban will be temporary. To succumb to political correctness and not ban travel to one's country from the mainland would be dereliction of duty by one's leaders. There's nothing racist or xenophobic about taking temporary precautions based on what we know and, more, what we don't know about the virus. Better safe than sorry makes a lot of sense here.
121
@West Coaster RE the number of people visiting the shopping center. I bet they have excellent records of who BOUGHT something while they were there. Many other people might have visited, but not left such a definite trace.
3
@West Coaster
I'm sure it is an informed estimate.
As for the use of the term "shopping center" please understand that they do not mean the equivalent of a US style shopping center. It is more like an enclosed strip mall, if you need a scale comparison.
5
@Lynn Smith Pinging cell phone towers and more accurate - location tracking enabled.
It is curious that the virus is terrible in places where people have been forced to stay together in close quarters, but not in other places. Obviously it’s convenient to propagate the infection when people are clustered together as bats in a cave. Cold temperatures, lack of exposure to sun. No wonder the Corona feels at home. Would that they could take people to warmer, sunnier places. At least those ships should dock in warmer countries. For us, folks please get some sunshine and Vit D.
I wonder if the antivirals being used to treat people in China are causing adverse reactions. Or maybe in desperation they are using drugs which are not as well researched. Or the fact many might be resorting to strange home made remedies. I really wish the CDC would tell us what exactly is causing all these poor people to suffer. Because I am getting the distinct feeling Corona is a virus that is getting blamed for a whole load of other things leading to death.
2
It is not curious but well documented, in places like Wuhan, China there are open air, street level, slaughtering and selling of animals, both domestic and wild in some of the most densely populated areas of the world. Add to that a repressive, communist, dictatorship that is China and manipulation of the media by the govt. keeping information under wraps
22
@Meena What evidence-facts- do you have that the Corona virus thrives in some temperatures but not others? I’d be interested in any links or cites you have. Keeping in mind, of course, that correlation does not equal causation.
4
@Maggie
Absolutely right, apart from conjecture, no concrete evidence that it may not survive in warmer temperatures. Just going by where and how bats cluster in caves. Not very warm in there, and certainly not much light or uv radiation. After all, any research has to have some hypothetical beginning. So why not start with the primary source? Bats with happy corononaviruses, cave conditions etc.
1
What comes to mind is the shortage in the USA of scientists and doctors.
I picture a poor Mexican, Black American, Puerto Rican, Muslim and white children etc being given the opportunity for higher education from K-12 on to College in this richest nation on earth.
Brilliance is everywhere to blossom - given a chance. I wonder if the germaphobe in the White House has ever thought about this.
8
I picture all the children you mention; and I know that those of them who buckle down in school and spend their afternoons studying, and do not instead hang out on street corners, can and do become our doctors and scientists.
In New York City, K-12 is free, our City College and State College systems are reasonable, and there are scholarships available at private universities for bright kids "of color."
19
@B. A message of rapists, birtherism, race bans, nativism and Betsy DeVoss as our Sec of Edu school privatization is not a message of encouragement. Military spending is going up - are school teacher pay and supplies equal to that?
4
@Daniel
You are right. Since the government is not doing this, why not tithe your income to help poor kids become doctors?
WHO cares about the political correctness of W.H.O. or Fed chair closely watching the COVID-19 outbreak. Did theoretical micro and macroeconomics algorithms ever take such outbreaks into making wild long term predictions of economic stability or instability while making changes in the interest rates? Chill out and calm down politicians bureaucrats and technocrats who know nothing about viruses leave alone a clever complex contagious virus like COVID-19. Panic, political correctness, wild speculation will not make the virus disappear into thin air from our planet. The stock market seems unconcerned about the Corona threat. In fact China throwing 10 billion dollars at the problem will boost the Chinese economy in certain sectors such as construction of hospitals/quarantine facilities, supplies needed for hospitals and transportation for distribution of food and supplies.
Let the proper trained virologists, infectious disease specialists and pulmonologists teams be the educators and the first responders.
10
Sorry, but it’s the “Wuhan Coronavirus.” The people of the world have no obligation to help the Chinese save face after their consumption of exotic wildlife foisted this monstrosity upon the world stage.
75
@Steve . And their suppression of the doctor who wanted to raise the alarm in December.
2
@Steve so much judgement in these comments today! Everyone needs to calm down. Let he who eats nothing questionable (pink slime, anyone? Flaming hot Cheetos? Just about every aisle of the US grocery store?) cast the first stone. You want to talk about food culture wreaking havoc on global health? Look no further than mass exporting of culinary monstrosities like McDonalds. The US is a global leader in the sickening of the world with its food ‘culture.’
5
I am a molecular virologist who works on other positive-strand RNA viruses, viruses similar to the new coronavirus. I am also a sitting member of the International Committee on the Taxonomy of Viruses, which actually supersedes the WHO on virus naming within the scientific community. It is common practice to name viruses after the location of their first outbreak (Ebola virus, Zika virus, Norwalk virus, etc.), their discoverers (Epstein-Barr virus, Theiler’s disease virus, etc), or their symptoms (dengue viruses, SARS, HIV, papillomaviruses, etc.). China must’ve spent a lot of money lobbying the WHO for the name devoid of reference to Wuhan, which would have not been any more “stigmatizing” than the examples I mentioned above (note, most of which are in underdeveloped countries). The problem is the new name is devoid of any meaning. I suggest it be named after the symptoms.
84
@Brett I think it would have been fitting to have named the virus after the whistle blower doctor who died from the virus after he tried to alert people, Dr. Li Wenliang. He was then shut down by authorities who wanted to keep it quiet. Too political I suppose, but there is an important lesson connected with that man.
19
My brother is a member of the Coronavirus Working Group for your committee that submitted a paper for peer review today recommending a different, and far more descriptive, name (SARS-CoV-2) than the one WHO came up with, which merely restates the coronavirus family name and the year the virus originated. Taxonomy by fiat serves no one; we all are better off if the disease, including its name, is subjected to the rigor of research and review.
16
Common practice is not always justified. And you may not be aware of, but NYT has some stories on how sinophobia keeps inflamed after the epidemic. A stigma-free virus name is a good practice and does mean a lot.
7
We are living in dystopian times. Under the "whistling past the graveyard" + lying leadership of Donald J Trump, conditions in this country, and the world, are only going to get worse.
10
A few months ago in China 100 million to 130 million pigs had to be put down. They claimed it was a pig disease not related to human viruses. It may have been a test by a human made scientific experiment. There’s also the possibility that after the pigs were put down 20% of them were actually resold into the market and this led to the disease that is currently being spread in China. The correlation of two diseases causing such destruction without investigation is just amazing.
8
What is your scientific basis for this opinion?
6
Pay attention for God's sake. That was African Swine Fever Virus, which is not transmissible to people. It bears no similarity to COVID-19.
8
Try to find a product here that is not made in China. I'll sure not be buying any.
1
Cross-species infection virus
Xi-virus.
4
At least we know why they stopped calling it the Wuhan virus.There are no accidents (or coincidences) in world affairs.
The Eyes of Darkness by Dean Koontz, a 1981 novel predicts Coronavirus like outbreak called Wuhan-400 Coronavirus
4
I would like to know from the most authoritative source (CDC?) possible:
What is the best advice to everyday people like me who work, go to the gym, socialize, take mass transportation, buy food, may buy goods made in China (which is almost everything), have children in school, grandparents in nursing homes, so on.
Should we all wear masks in public and, if so, what kind? Where are they available?
This country is full of garden-variety flu cases. At what point should anyone worry about flu-like symptoms? Do we visit the doctor, the ER, or stay home and isolate?
Should anyone with cold-like symptoms be staying home now or is that over-reaction?
Most comments on this thread are the "isn't it awful" genre. And I understand that. But what's the pragmatic advice and guidance? Or, does no one have any?
It would be commonsense for one spokesperson to keep in daily touch with the public through the mass media.
19
@HotGumption
The CDC and NIH will most likely be the ones to dispense such information, only when and if there’s a serious outbreak here in the U.S., which thank God, hasn’t happened yet.
Until then, the government doesn’t want to stoke fears and cause unnecessary panic, which would be calamitous, worse than any Hollywood movie.
Yes, there’s a lot of hand-wringing type comments, but that’s only natural.
You should simply employ whatever sensible precautions you’re comfortable with.
@HotGumption
The CDC and NIH will most likely be the ones to dispense such information, only when and if there’s a serious outbreak here in the U.S., which thank God, hasn’t happened yet.
Until then, the government doesn’t want to stoke fears and cause unnecessary panic, which would be calamitous, worse than any Hollywood movie.
Yes, there’s a lot of hand-wringing type comments, but that’s only natural.
You should simply employ whatever sensible precautions you’re comfortable with.
I suggest you take a brown paper bag, shut yourself in a closet, disconnect your internet and cable TV, and breathe deeply into the bag. If you paid attention to the CDC you would have known to just calm down, wash your hands regularly, and go about your normal business. There is no COVID-19 on the loose in the US, anymore than there is the bubonic plague.
3
A politically-correct name for the virus, as a headline news item, is a sign of the times. But it was among the least significant actions that could be taken to control this virus in the long run. We wish the best for all front-line public health workers who put themselves at risk.
13
I suppose if we should not refer to it as the Wuhan coronavirus, we should not refer to it as Trump's wall, as both names references the true origins.
C'mon folks, this virus is serious business.
To paraphrase my mother:
Sticks and stones will break my bones,
But names will never harm me.
Instead of the name game, how about focusing on yesterday's excellent piece, "The Urgent Questions Scientists Are Asking About Coronavirus"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/opinion/coronavirus-china-research.html
4
You ae what you eat .
Its time our leaders and scientist should give more importance to life style .
2
I’ve been following this since very early on. If there is anyone else out there that thinks China, the CDC and the WHO are out to their depth and playing constant catchup with this virus then you aren’t alone. No one is on top of this; and those governments and organizations that claim they are, are guilty of PR before facts. This virus is not understood well and all models are null and void until we do. There is no single scientist that can answer the most vital questions about this virus. This virus has attributes that are frankly, blindsiding the best.
18
You might want to get a N95 mask, just in case. I bought the last three at our Loews tonight. Home Depot was sold out. I ordered some from Amazon two weeks ago, and they haven't come in yet.
1
It's admirable for WHO to avoid stigmatization of China over the disease. Any suggestions alluding to racist accusations against Asians should be unequivocally be shot down. That said, the origins should be thoroughly investigated by a third party (WHO) and recommendations should be made to the Chinese government, hopefully, to be implemented and avoiding the conditions ( i.e. likely live wild animal markets) that gave rise to the disease.
2
No need to rename, 2019-nCoV is already pretty clear in describing the virus. COVID-19 seems to forced.
And you cannot take the politics out of this outbreak. Half the people here in this comment section are here because they have an ax to grind and not because they want to learn more about the virus; there are far better source for that.
3
Only Corona beer was stigmatized.
14
Trump, China, and The WHO. And we believe what?
5
Back to work means China us willing to tolerate the rapid spread of the disease, probably globally. Yikes.
6
There seems to be an awful lot of hyoe around this coronavirus. In the meantime we are in the midst of the 2019-2020 flue season. The CDC reports 22 to 31 million cases from the flu here in the US and 12 to 30 thousand deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
3
To the Editor(s) of NYT
The daily latest updates is informative. It perhaps can be further enhanced by a trend-line chart showing the rate of new confirmed and suspected cases. A sample chart updated daily can be seen here: https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121
While the "Inflection point amid novel coronavirus outbreak remains unknown: renowned expert (Zhong Nanshan) - Xinhua news 2/12/20, the chart seemed to show certain downward trend for daily new confirmed cases.
3
Some Chinese don't know the meaning of hygiene.
Some who teach and engage in best hygiene practices are....Chinese.
Comprising close to a quarter of all humans, the "Chinese" are an incredibly diverse group in every way. So, whatever the behavior, there are a bunch of Chinese people engaged in it.
Yet, day in and day out, I am confronted with these blanket statements about Chinese people. "Chinese people have outdated superstitious beliefs". "Chinese people don't care about animal suffering". "Chinese people don't respect intellectual property". Etc.etc.etc.
People in the West are all too ready to see the Chinese as a single group. Already we have commenters arguing that China needs to be nailed to the pillars of shame in perpetuity. But "Chinese" is both a nationality and an ethnicity and applies to a heck of a lot of people and many don't seem to be too concerned about the nuances We have to take every step possible to avoid stigmatizing every 4th person. This is where names matter.
Course the NYT will not publish this
11
Oh how sweet, a Politically-Correct name for a pandemic! Call it what you want, but don't allow into the country people arriving from China.
7
I'll bet the Corona beer brand will be glad to see this flu re-named.
5
The only "stigma" that could conceivably have been associated with the word "coronavirus" is that it comes from drinking Mexican beer, which has nothing to do with the actual virus. This is silly.
4
The WHo is a joke.
They downplayed the virus until after the lunar new year so as not to upset China.
Now they change the name ...oh some leadership but then again it’s part of a bigger joke the UN.
7
@alec Why didn't we call H1N1 the North American Inffluenza? It killed 248k Americans and infected about 60 Million in less than a year.
In comparison to all other viuses and flus we've faced globally...at this moment the coronavirus is not that bad but no one wants to be reasonable in case they're wrong. They'd rather feed the fire.
These ‘experts’ actually thought that the highly-contagious coronavirus originating in a China food market needed a neutral, politically correct name...so as not to offend anyone’s delicate sensibilities.
More evidence that our overpopulated species is becoming increasingly...undeniably... frighteningly...stupid.
9
Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts has a partnership with Tianjin. The virus could spread thusly to NYC.
3
The inevitability of human error:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/us/san-diego-coronavirus-patient.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
“A person sick with coronavirus was released from a San Diego hospital this week after a labeling error led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to incorrectly indicate that the person did not have the virus, federal authorities said on Tuesday.”
“Ms. Nordlund said that C.D.C. laboratory staff members would now take part in field teams working to prevent such errors.”
that was a close call.
5
Can anyone speak to reports that the 14 day quarrantine period appears to be too conservative and should be outwards of 24 days? Some reporting is suggesting the benchmark should be 24 days now and I've heard no response to that question from organizations tasked with implementing these policies.
7
@Name
There is some speculation that maybe a single case of infections taking 24 days from exposure to diagnosis. However, that is just one maybe speculation - the median seems to be more like 3-5 days. You don't need or want the central quarantine to get out to the longest imaginable timeline. Just go past the mean+2SD, take a test at that time and send all negative cases home for another week of supervised home quarantine.
2
Hopefully, explanation for the Amoy Gardens (Hong Kong/Toronto) cluster in the SARS epidemic 17 years ago, will help public understanding of virus transmission. It was discovered that a sewer line draining sewage from a high-rise apartment building was damaged by utility workers. The result was a seemingly minor water leak that emerged from the adjacent lawn and flowed slowly across the sidewalk near the building entrance. The pedestrian traffic picked up the contamination on the soles of their shoes and tracked the virus into the apartment tower. This created a cluster of infections that mystified investigators. With the population densities, the exponential increeases in the volume, speed & range of travel, the complexity of infrastrupture combined with the political imperative to avoid responsibility in the Chinese political system, the outcome of this epidemic is self-evident.
13
Thank you for explaining this
2
'The virus now has a stigma-free name'.
And along those lines, a rose by any other name...
22
@David Bartlett When I want current info I just google "china virus" and everything pops right up. Not fooling any search engine with fancy names.
2
How or why was it so important to spend precious WHO resources on giving a new name to the virus??
Instead of a feel-good measure, can they work ok something more tangible?
24
@L There's work on a vaccine and an ongoing test of a promising antiviral, but both of those take time. It doesn't take anything for the Organization to declare the virus has a name.
3
For clearer news coverage on the situation with this virus please read the news from Singapore through their newspapers. So much more information than we are accessing through news out here in the western world. I must say I am quite impressed with their systematic, forensic approach in tracking down and dealing with this illness. At least the news seems to convey this. The medical details are also far more informative.
And for those following this virus, the incubation period is almost 28 days now. I wonder what those quarantined in our US bases are going to feel about this....
20
@Meena
I found the same thing about the reporting in Singapore.
@Meena what website do you suggest?
What are some examples of Singapore news sites?
Not a surprise.
Governments don't care about people.
They care about power.
7
For layman's purposes, I think this virus will always be thought of as Wuhan coronavirus. If WHO and China are so concerned with stigma does that suggest that there is some expectation that this outbreak is going to leave a strong dark mark on our collective consciousness? Their action may unintentionally decrease confidence this can be defeated, given the apparent tint of propaganda. I understand they don't want to stigmatize the region, but pretending we don't know where this originated seems a little pointless and may reduce the impetus to change the animal husbandry and cuisine practices that led to this outbreak in the first place as well as the bureaucratic structures that delayed response. Accountability begets behavior change.
22
What the ....? Were Mexican Beer sales dropping?
Nice to know that the world is focused on IMPORTANT things.
With reports of crematoriums working non-stop in Wuhan it's clear things are not as officially reported. This seems to be a readily transmitted virus with a long latency period - something that will spread easily without being detected.
20
Certainly wouldn't want anyone "triggered" by an inappropriate name for COVID-19. "Safe spaces" are at a premium.
25
I don't think this has anything to do with being "triggered" or "safe spaces". You should probably conjure the left wing Boogeyman somewhere else. This is about a giant economy named China pressuring the WHO to do a rebranding campaign on a virus that has caused them significant pain. Although, calling this thing coronavirus is like naming a cat Cat or Kitty. it's literally what it is, and becomes confusing when you have more than one cat. A real name was needed anyway to differentiate it from other coronaviruses like SARS.
7
I understand how the Pakistani student left in China must feel - but how can it be that he doesn't think of his friends and family, everyone in Pakistan that could be killed if he and others in China went back home where they are so badly prepared to handle an outbreak?
It's natural, but so very disappointing, to let your concern for your own safety be put over so many potential deaths of people you know and care about.
And Coronavirus 19 is far easier to pronounce. But Wuhan would really be a more appropriate name, no matter how China doesn't want the association.
13
Isn't coronavirus a "stigma-free" name? I haven't heard anyone say Wuhan flu or Chinese flu or even advise to distance oneself from a Chinese (exaggerating to make a point).
11
"Coronavirus" is a class or family of viruses, not an individual virus.
8
@Lynn in DC The problem is that coronavirus is the type of virus. It doesn't say which coronavirus it is. It would be like calling lions big cats. They are big cats, but so are tigers and jaguars.
5
@Lynn in DC
Okay, coronavirus is the broad name for the virus. My larger point remains that no person or organization created a name for the virus that shamed China or the Chinese people.
Viruses don't care much what we call them. They just do their thing.
22
As some commenters point out, there appears to be an official push to at least give the appearance China is back to normal. I believe it's a false narrative because one of my suppliers in Shenzhen whose owners are from Hubei sent me the following reply:
"I'm staying at home now, we all fine with the virus.
All of us are advised to stay in home, it can help to protect us from the risk.
All of us, goverment and people, are doing our best to solve this problem, and everything I think it's better soon."
Clearly my friends live fear of the government reading their email...
23
Today on NPR, I heard a report China is asking that countries pare back travel bans because of the economic fallout. When WHO delayed declaring a global emergency a short two weeks ago, it seemed China's economic interests were part of the equation. Will efforts to contain this virus bow to economic pressure? Is that good epidemiology?
In todays Upshot, Dr. Carroll tells us we can wash our hands well, get flu shots, clean our phones, computers etc.and hope our employers allow those with illness to stay home. That was NOT reassuring, nor is the call to lower travel restrictions at this time. Should we be concerned that China is beginning to consider containment a failure and now pushing economics ahead of safety?
WHO feels compelled to play political semantics with the very name of the virus. China certainly will be appreciative if they are not in fact the one's to stipulate it. I was hoping to hear much more substantive info from WHO as was portended by yesterdays op-ed by a top Hong Kong epidemiologist.
Todays WHO release reminds me of that scene in Lord of the Rings where the Ents engage at great length in a discussion our little hobbits believe to be a resolution to war but, hours later, turns out to have been only their ponderous Entish greeting. Please, WHO, give us the info you are convened to piece together, not semantics. And do tell us if you and the powers that be are throwing us under the bus in favor of economics. I need time to stock up on soap.
37
So the WHO is now enabling China.
28
@cbarber
they have been doing so for a long time now. Even according to the NY Times, the WHO has done nothing but "lavishly" praise the Chinese govt. for their handling of this disaster.
6
I see. It is
CCP
Obviously
Very
Incapable
Disease
19
Easy to remember. WHO is just a puppet serving what CCP wants. Head of WHO had seen Emperor Xi and received an order.
17
I, for one, welcome this new name for the virus.
Also, we are 100 years late but a new, stigma-free name for the Spanish flu would be nice too.
After all, it didn't even originate in Spain...
25
China did not learn it's lessons with SARS so here we are with this version of the coronavirus.
More sophisticated, able to mutate and creatively enter a cells as is required to replicate and survive.
This virus is intelligent and that is what is so worrying to scientists.
16
COVID-19 (corona virus disease 2019) .... it really just rolls right off the tongue.
What lovely infectious disease marketing.
I think I'll go out and get some COVID-19.
13
@Socrates "Ask your doctor if COVID-19 is right for you. Side effects include nausea, vomiting, shortness of breath, and in some cases may lead to death."
Not sure how this sounds any different than the current medical ads hawked on TV.
They can name it what they want, it will always be attached to China and the example of a government and country once considered "too big to fail" but now showing it is "too big to succeed" when it comes to battling the spread of epidemics (but so are most countries).
16
Indeed, and this Christmas, Covid-19 teddy bears will be a sellout on Melissa and Doug's website.
2
Exotic animal caused it, my foot. It escaped from a gene splicing lab.
13
The explanation makes sense. It’s present in Pangolins that are butchered without refrigeration in the open air market purported to be the origin. Literally anyone within the splash zone is breathing in aerosolized infected pangolin blood after it’s chopped up in front of people. It’s a wonder it didn’t happen sooner.
What reason do we have to doubt the given explanation and what evidence do you have to the contrary?
10
@Ryan Bingham I found this article based on a search about gene splicing labs:
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502
2
Is this for real? Sounds like a Saturday Night Live skit. Instead of wasting our time with political correctness, we should focus on containing and curing the disease, and sending a stern message to rogue countries like China that covering up this kind of world disaster is unacceptable.
26
@ERA
Pc aside is actually the best reason to name it something innocuous. It doesn’t matter where it came from now, does it?
I’m seriously concerned that you guys seem to think scientists were working on the name instead of containment and treatment. I ate Cheetos instead of not working on a cure today. Believe me, the effort did not suffer.
6
Re "Coronavirus Outbreak": Why rename a plague? Why call it "Covid-19" that doesn't mean diddly right now? Okay, world health authorities have renamed the Wuhan animal market virus something else to mute its provenance in China. A plague doesn't need renaming. A rose by any other name...A pandemic is a pandemic is a pandemic.
15
@Nan Socolow probably doesn’t have anything to do with the racial abuse in the US or Britain. Right? No. People aren’t like that. It’s important that people know where the plague came from so they can... avoid the area? Force Chinese people in their community to be tested for the disease even if they haven’t been to China? Yell at random Chinese people in the street? The odds hate crime?
Help me out.
2
@Kate
Good grief, we all need help, Kate! A plague is a plague and there's no blaming anyone anywhere for its beginning or end! Viral diseases burn like forest fires and eventually burn/die out. All humans hope this pandemic will die soon.
2
Isn’t it much more likely that the two occupants living ten floors apart came in contact with the virus in the elevator or hallway rather than the pipes? That pipe theory seems outlandish to me.
6
Stigma free? There SHOULD be a stigma attached to places that allow such unsanitary and reckless conditions that bring harm to the world!
Why is is that 4 of the most recent deadly pandemics originated in China and the rest stemmed in equally undeveloped countries.
There should be severe global peer pressure to get through to those countries that they need to get their citizens need to clean up their acts!
34
@American Abroad AMEN!!
2
Seriously- it takes 3 weeks just to come up with a name? Did they get in some management consultants or an advertising agency?
10
COVID-19 is a reasonable scientific name for what is also termed the Xi virus.
15
Xi virus is the best one yet
4
Even the WHO is woke. I didn't realize that Communist China had such tender sensibilities.
26
A “stigma free” name is not in our best interests and suggests they are choosing political correctness over the spread of the disease and our health—especially since it has already been given a name hundreds of millions of people recognize.
12
Undocumented immigrants of Asian descent have been arriving in West & East coast cities by the tens of thousands for decades. It seems inevitable that at least people with the virus will enter the US undetected through this vector. As xenophobic as Trump is toward Hispanics with his crazed obsession over a senseless wall on the southern border, this should serve as an ironic wakeup call. By myopically promoting his wall, Trump has failed to grasp the big picture which could have lent assistance to California and New York in dealing humanely with their share of immigrants--some of whom may carry the virus.
8
@Tom The spread hasn't been from undocumented workers, but rather from business men and government officials travelling back and forth by air. The fact that a person can fly on a plane while showing all signs of cold and flu within the US and spread it among the cabin kills more each year than SARS and COVID-19 combined in total.
Putting things in perspective is more important than stoking racism and blaming the end of the socio-economic ladder.
7
@Tom ... and Tom is the guy who accuses Trump of being xenophobic ...
@Thumbo Xenophobia is a blanket mistrust of outsiders. But let's get get serious--neither you nor I would welcome a houseguest from Wuhan right about now. I would take a few million of Trumps's wall dollars to better help NYC and CA health-screen the many thousands of recently arrived undocumented folks there, many of whom are from Asia. Call that whatever you like.
2
The pattern emerges. Name change...blame local officials....all that is happening here is that Xi is protecting Xi. I bet that his minders made sure that those around him in the photo op were flunkies. Someone so important cannot actually show real leadership and visit the real centre of the outbreak. What a third rate performance. I still think that the knives will be out for him from many powerful people that he has removed from office over the last few years. He can pretend that he is the all powerful leader...but he is politically wounded maybe fatally especially after the long running Honk Kong debacle. Leader for life...do not bet on it.
11
There’s good reason why the origin of the virus should be known. Asian food markets trading in exotic animals for consumption, particularly in China, are a danger to world health!
How many pandemics do we have to contend with before they’re forced to stop this dangerous practice?
24
Another reader has asked key questions about the virus. The best summary in a major medical journal so far is in the current issue of the New England Journal of Medicine. That study and two others are readily available online.
Epidemiologists, infectious disease specialists and virologists are still working out the transmission characteristics of this virus. Other key questions include: How many people can have COVID-19 infections and have minimal symptoms? Does the virus affect children differently than adults? For people who eventually develop symptoms, when in the prodrome do they shed virus? And when seemingly better, do they continue to shed virus?
I am not a public health officer, but I think it is safe to assure the public that this situation, international in scope, is not receiving the type of "it can't happen here" dismissal that we saw in 1981 at the advent of HIV. Scientists learned much from SARS, and that knowledge seems to be translating to the management of COVID-19. I was in practice and in a role to formulate some local plans for SARS when it was a threat, and the current response seems to be faster and more comprehensive than was the case previously.
Initially, the response in China seemed to be influenced by local politics. I hope that politicians around the world will get out of the way, let the experts do their jobs to bring this under control.
26
Well, I think with the internet, that name is not going to stick. Someone will give it acatchier name ( Hope the virus does not stick around.)
5
We need to call this the Wuhan Coronavirus or the Chinese will avoid all pressure to make changes in their live animal markets.
80
@John Pancoast Another source may have been from their animal-borne research lab, according to some reports.
3
Great, so now I'll die of a virus that doesn't stigmatize anybody.
I can't tell you how thrilled I am.
82
I do not understand how corona is stigma. The name change is to hide information
39
@Ann – There was no name change. Coronavirus is a family of viruses. 2019-nCoV is the coronavirus in this outbreak. The illness it causes is COVID-19.
I'm sure South Park can make fun of this name too
20
You mean like the scientists that wanted to quarantine the plane from Wuhan to California for 3 days? Oh yeah, trust those scientists.
5
News: "To avoid the stigma associated with the disease"
Spanish people: "Hold my beer"
28
Get a timeline of recent diseases in China. I highly doubt it is from bats or snakes. Most likely insects. A few months ago about 120 million pigs were put down or killed in China. However knowing how corruption exists in China most likely 20% we’re not put down. Corruption is widespread in China. Scientist should study weather pigs are still infected and if any insects may have spread to different regions and this is the cause of the current virus.
5
@Ralph Petrillo They found an almost identical virus in bats.
4
@David Weintraub
And in pangolins...the armadillo like creature that is sometimes eaten. I thought the working hypothesis was horseshoe bat to pangolin to human.
3
The spread of the virus to patients and doctors in a Wuhan hospital has made it clear this is as an airborne respiratory virus like SARs. It is much more contagious than the flu and people on a cruise ship are infecting each other despite being isolated. In Hong Kong a resident was infected through a “pipe”. Was “air vent” lost in translation?
If Indonesia, Africa, and India do not report a surge in cases despite having many tourists then is R_0 < 1 those countries?
It is likely the water droplets loaded with viruses quickly evaporate in hotter climates. The sun is out longer and is more intense and quickly destroys the exposed viruses with UV light. Many poorer countries are tropical and do not have central heat and AC. Their air conditioners are single room units that do not share duct work with other rooms. That may be enough to reduce the number of new people each infected person infects to less than one.
Hopefully, the virus will not burn through poorer countries. Unfortunately malaria, dengue, and zika are primarily spread through mosquitos in hot climates instead of being airborne.
11
@PictureBook
Or maybe they don't have access to testing.
4
@PictureBook you are probably correct with the temperature aspect, however I am curious as to the extent it has infected and sickened, non-Asians.
Maybe it is particular to Asians alone!?!
Which raise more troubling questions about the potential of ethnic inspired targeting. It is a reality now:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/oct/28/thisweekssciencequestions.weaponstechnology
What's wrong with calling it what it is? It's the Wuhan virus and China really does need to "clean up its act" with regard to allowing the mixing of animals and people in close quarters. Every flu originates in China because of its lax public health. Let's not protect China by sanitizing the name of the latest, deadly virus from China--the Wuhan virus.
68
@Paul Wortman It's not about protecting China. It's about protecting people of Chinese descent (or people who others perceive to be Chinese) from racist attacks, or isolation, when there is a 0% chance that they have or will transmit the disease.
14
Scientifically speaking saying every flu originates from China is ridiculous. Do the words Spanish flu or Russian Flu resonate with you?
3
@Paul Wortman
We should call it the Xi Disease in retaliation for the petty cheesy inhumane exclusion of Taiwan from WHO cooperation.
2
For the World Health Organisation, apparently it's more important to control the narrative than it is to fight the disease.
And so, the World Health Organisation re-brands Coronavirus. Henceforth, we muppets must call it Covid-19.
By dissociating it with any person, place or animal, we will not stigmatize the virus.
Is this not crazy?
People are dying and our esteemed international health organisation is treating the crisis as a re-branding exercise.
64
This is a name for the *illness*, which has been unnamed until now. There was no renaming or rebranding.
According to the Ministry of Information, the enemy is not Corona virus, the enemy is COVID something or other. Or is it Covefe? I’m confused.
11
So much bickering about the political correctness of a name yet no one has developed the vaccine yet.
19
@Scotty The naming of the virus has nothing to do with the vaccine schedule. It's not like they have to choose between 'funding a vaccine' and 'naming the virus' - the agency is capable of doing more than one thing at once.
10
Exactly how did calling it "The Coronavirus" stigmatize anyone? It isn't like any news agency was calling it "The Chinavirus" or the "Wuhan Flu." Does this mean that the epicenter of the outbreak will no longer be identified as a city in China?
Still, it is reassuring that W.H.O. is on the job! Maybe they should use multicolored protective suits instead of white ones?
24
I fail to see how the word "corona," which means the gas surrounding a star or "the part of the body resembling a crown" references any PLACE.
Am I missing something?
I'm quite convinced most people will continue to call it the coronavirus, rather than COVID-19, which is a more technical and scarier-sounding name.
4
@NEMama Coronavirus refers to a whole family of viruses, not just one virus. The WHO decision was in reference to calling it Wuhan virus. The thought police won.
9
@NEMama I think they changed the name from coronavirus, because there are multiple types of coronavirus in the world. Also, people were starting to call it the "Wuhan coronavirus," which can stigmatize people of Chinese descent who in no way are at risk of spreading the disease. Does that make sense?
2
Coronavirus is overly generic. It’s a family of viruses, including 7 known to infect humans (from the common cold to MERS), and dozens more that infect animals.
That’s why they were calling it “Novel Coronavirus”, but that’s only descriptive until they discover a newer one.
2
All the effort to stop this will be for naught. It should be allowed to spread and we'll get over it soon, rather than drag it out and hurt people economically trying to prevent what is inevitable.
It's not even clear if it is worse than a normal flu.
Let's also be clear on this point, it is not a threat to human kind, it is a threat to the wealth of our cruel and criminal overlords. Their concern is for the money, not the people.
7
Hmm. I’m not thinking of the markets or the rich, I’m thinking of the scientists. I’d like to buy them a little more time to study antivirals and develop vaccines. I’m also thinking of the patients that will benefit.
22
@Chris They don't have a vaccine yet. The COVID19 could go world wide and with a 2% fatality rate that means a death sentence to 180 million people. We are all going to die but why rush it.
8
@Chris Even if it is no worse than a normal flu, literally no one is immune to it, unlike the flu. So even if it is no more deadly than the flu, it may still infect (and kill) more people.
But yes, to your other point, I have no doubt there are many in power that care more about how this will affect their economic prospects than how many lives it might take.
6
The relief I feel after today's announcement is profound. After the work of the dedicated bureaucratic, and scientists, at WHO we now can see the daylight on the horizon. There is a stigma free name for this plague the world is enduring. Praise the heavens, stigma free, I'm sure this will make all the difference.
56
@TED338 The medical workers like Dr. Li Wenliang, the experts like Dr. Gabriel Leung and WHO President Dr. Tedros Adhanom, and notably President Xi Jinping deserve our human thanks. There is something about an indiscriminate killer that breads fear. On the front lines workers are fighting for everyone. Scientist understand the problem and are creating strategies of defense. Political leaders are making the though decisions to isolate and treat. Thank you.
@Jeff Stockwell
Am I living in an alternate universe? Since when do politicians like Xi and Trump make decisions for the benefit of their citizens?
It does no good to panic, but I don't think it's wrong to be concerned. Quick fixes don't seem to be part of potential pandemics.
1
@Jeff Stockwell
“On the front lines workers are fighting for everyone” Except for the Taiwanese whom the WHO have let themselves be bullied into pretending that they don’t exist.
2
Saw my first storefront ad for Lysol as an effective disinfectant against corona virus in Florida. People, get ready.
5
@Pamela H for what
1
Let’s remember the dictator who needs to take responsibility for this debacle by using Roman numerals: COVID-XI-X
16
Now, no one will know where it started! No one will remember the courageous doctor who tried to “blow the whistle” and was castigated for doing so! I remember Thomas Friedman’s piece a few years ago about how great it would be if the US could be China for a day. He was wrong.
7
Only took one month to officially name it. Seems like we’re making good progress.
11
No need to fear, out Great Leader has declared the the coronavirus will end in April, when the weather gets warmer.
13
This is starting to look more and more like the movie Outbreak with the exception of the death rate. Truly scary.
5
Speaking of origins is it true that the Wuhan is the center of China's biodefense laboratory?
If so, dig deeper on this, please.
11
Yes. from
https://www.wired.com/story/chinas-swift-id-of-a-new-virus-is-a-win-for-public-health/
"In 2017, China opened its first biosafety level 4 lab, in Wuhan. "
7
@Jill
There are plenty of articles on the Wuhan Virology Institute and the research being conducted there - including job postings in November describing their work on how bats can carry and transmit viruses without showing any symptoms. There are also articles on Chinese nationals being involved in the theft of coronavirus samples from a level 4 containment lab in Canada. India has published articles on the modification of this particular virus to include HIV segments.
But any references to this virus being bioengineered and having escaped from a lab - despite clear evidence that past SARS outbreaks were linked to other Chinese labs - are outright lies according to the Chinese government. Most MSM are avoiding this possibility as well.
2
@Jill Exactly and the Harvard head of chemistry i would guess has to much to do with this. But he should be in jail if not bonded out by now.
1
I have my own name for the pathogen: Wuhan Virus. That's where the epidemic originated, and there are plenty of examples of infectious diseases in which its place of origin is eponymous with its name. Lyme disease, Coxsackie virus, Marburg virus, Lassa fever, Ebola virus, West Nile virus, German measles, and so on. It seems reasonable to conclude that the scientific community has a buckled under pressure from China to abstain from linking the name of the disease to the city of its origin. If they don't want it named after the city of Wuhan, then why not call it Li Wenliang Virus in honor of the Chinese doctor who was arrested for warning his colleagues about the new illness only to succumb to it shortly thereafter.
33
I’m not sure that having a deadly pathogen named after you is an honor. I might go with “Dense Urban Wet Market Virus” (DUWM Virus) to serve as a warning.
3
Prevention of animal to human viral transmission has been addressed on numerous occasions. But until exotic wildlife is prohibited for "mass consumption" the problematic health issues such as Coronavirus will simply return. And at what cost? Even if it's illegal, it's unlikely to disappear.
19
True, but don’t you think that bioweapons research (and deployment!!) shroud also be banned?
7
I'm wondering about how well a person is protected from the COVID-19 virus by wearing a face mask. If the virus is transmitted through the air could it be contracted through the eyes of someone wearing a face mask covering only nose and mouth?
5
Or through the skin, which also breathes for us as well as being an entry path via even the tiniest of scratches, nicks, cuts or abrasions, not to mention membranes.
4
Wearing masks and gloves, if not switched out regularly can actually contribute to spreading the disease. The mask can serve as an incubator, warmed and moistened by your breath. Wearing gloves has the same problems, and is not a replacement for regularly washing your hands.
The best you can do, is stay clean, disinfect, and use alcohol based sanitizer.
3
@Lorrie A face mask is worn by someone potentially infected with a virus to limit the exposure of others in the vicinity. If enough face masks were available, the logical thing to do would be to have everyone wear them. Since there aren't, they need to be reserved for people in areas subject to a high risk of exposure, like hospitals.
1
In my opinion the U.S. should temporarily halt all travel in and out of Asia. I personally know two people who have returned from Hong Kong this week. In order to halt the spread of this clearly highly contagious, rapidly evolving and dangerous virus, the U.S. and other countries must take extreme measures. It is the price we all pay for living in a globalized world and if we want to ensure global public health, it's what is necessary.
37
Can we just stop with the Flu comparisons?
This virus *will be* endemic in the population, just like the Flu and just like the 4 other common Coronaviruses. Containment is slowing but not stopping the spread and we’ll see exponential growth again once it hits India, Africa etc. The question is *when* not *if*.
So the best case scenario is that it’s no worse than Flu. The Flu doesn’t go away so we now have twice as many hospitalizations and deaths — this would strain any health system.
I hesitate to think of the worst case, but perhaps the most likely case is that it’s about 10x worse than the flu (CFR 1 percent), and now we have 11x as many hospitalizations and deaths than usual.
Comparing this to the Flu is completely shortsighted.
15
Wrong. The actual fatality rate is unknown and certainly likely to be significantly lower, since the total number of persons sickened is far greater than has been possible to confirm by test. You are correct that it will inevitably and eventually become pandemic, but the efforts by China are buying valuable time.
3
According to Dr Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong and delegate to WHO, mortality from the 2003 SARS in Hong Kong was about 17% (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/opinion/coronavirus-china-research.html). But COVID-19 is about 2% in China and that percentage has held steady for several days.
The numbers indicate that many lessons from SARS, including starting with the protection of Health Care Workers, have been implemented successfully internationally. In spite of the horror stories, most people in the areas with high infection rates are observing quarantine measures (in in the press we are seeing fewer references to 'draconian measures' as the scope of the disease becomes known).
2
@Svirchev I think SARS mortality rate was about 10% worldwide.
We now have several hundred people in quarantine in the US for at least 14 days. Are any of these folks going to lose their jobs? Are there protections for them?
17
I believe I am one of the few people who knows the cause of the coronavirus: it is massive lack of curiosity by scientists. While the epidemic rages, people look for how to protect themselves and nowhere do I read any account of scientists examining the cause of the epidemic. All that seems to be written about is how to contain it. Is it a mere coincidence that China is one of the most polluted countries in the world? Is it likely that this massive pollution together with overpopulation has severely disrupted the ecosystem? Is it possible that this severe disruption in the ecosystem has led to the growth of this and perhaps previous epidemics such as SARS? I don't read anywhere that anyone is looking at these questions. Maybe this line of thinking will end up as a cul de sac, but it would be nice if I saw some scientists at least asking questions like these.
7
@SM Actually, curiosity is what drives those of us in epidemiology, in attempting to understand, scientifically, the variables that cause a disease condition to spread through a population. See for example this excellent article in the NEJM on how these epidemiologists modeled the spread of the SARS coronavirus in an apartment complex in Hong Kong https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa032867
22
@SM Some reporting from yesterday: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/science/pangolin-coronavirus.html
It's also a known issue that as humans spread and disrupt environments, the encounters with bats, rodents, and other animals increase and therefore increase the likelihood of these sorts of outbreaks.
7
You are conflating two different problems that have very different time scales and completely different solutions. Maybe leave the science to the scientists...
3
I know someone who returned from China and was told to self-quarantine for 14 days. She has been going out instead, and mingling in crowds. How are the health authorities monitoring self-quarantine, and what actions are being taken to make sure suspected carriers are abiding by the restrictions?
119
@Concerned Citizen Thank you for your comment. You can find information about how American authorities are monitoring those in the United States under "self-quarantine" here: https://nyti.ms/2SiRpLq. I hope this helps and thank you for reading.
13
@Concerned Citizen
That's incredibly upsetting to hear, you're colleague/friend should be ashamed of themselves.
This is a huge city, if she were to be infected and riding the subway, the untold amount of misery, hardship and even death that would follow in her wake would be entirely because of her negligence.
Do this city a favor and make it clear to her how ridiculously immature and irresponsible she is being.
35
@Nick
Exponentially speaking, it's way too late; that ship has sailed!
Ashamed of herself or not, she should be under mandatory quarantine.
20
In the face of an apparently unstoppable mass illness (thank you media) from a teeny, weeny, virus, isn’t it comforting we to draw succor and comfort in the knowledge that our president is in charge of all efforts to protect us? Just as long as the thing doesn’t strike until after 11:00am...
11
@J Looks like you are one of the very few commenters who decided that they would take a shot a Trump for coronavirus. The President has turned the coronavirus protection efforts for US citizens and illegal aliens alike over to the experts as is appropriate and the smart thing to do. You can rest assured that just because you hate Trump it doesn't mean he is stupid or evil and would do something that would allow coronavirus to harm any residents of our country if it can be prevented.
9
@NYChap
You mean just like he turned the sentencing of Stone over to the professionals at DOJ?
The US was one of the first to close travel from China. That is an action known by expert (studying facts) to be inefficient - yet it was instituted by Trumps government. This would not have happened without input from a fool who thinks he knows more than the generals.
1
@NYChap No he hasn't. He's been going around his rallies spreading falsehoods about the virus as if he is an expert. Just yesterday, he told a bunch of people in New Hampshire that they have nothing to fear because it will die once the weather gets a little warmer.
He also requested a budget cut to the CDC after the news came out about this virus. Apparently, not even his germophobia can equal his hatred for science.
3
"It was not immediately clear how the authorities had tracked the shoppers..."
anyone who regularly reads the NYT knows full well "...how the authorities had tracked the shoppers..."
"Chinese City Uses Facial Recognition to Shame Pajama Wearers"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/business/china-pajamas-facial-recognition.html?searchResultPosition=8
21
Now that they have a name, will they soon have a vaccine? Here's hoping. For people like me with breathing issues this is very scary.
5
@Curious Probably in a year or so. A bunch of teams started work on it, but vaccines are difficult things to get right, and they need frequent testing.
4
From yesterday W.H.O. Press Conference, we first learned, that the cited paper refering to a maximum incubation of up to 24 days, however showed a Median of 5 days. Today, when reading the abstract of the said paper (with n=1099 cases) the Median in fact an even lower figure: it is 3 days.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1
This is below my expetations and maybe some real good news indeed - for China and the world.
3
@j.keller So it means if you got the virus, you will feel ill after about 3 to 5 days, and you could be passing it to others unknowingly in those few days.
1
Modest proposals
Hypothesis: “The heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus,” Trump said in the State Dining Room.
Why wait until the heat comes in April. Bring on the heat
Tests:
1. Require indoor temperature to be set to 75F (24C) or above.
2. Get cruise ships sailing to warmer ports or ocean spots where air temperatures exceed 75F. Refueling/stocking can be done by submarines and/or ships.
Thesis 2: higher humidity limits virus survival - April showers bring May flowers, higher humidity and less flu too.
Tests:
1. Keep mucous membranes hydrated - require 8 or more glasses of water a day; require saline nose spray 2 times a day.
2. Require indoor humidity above 35% and below 60%. Educate public on proper use of home humidifiers.
Reference: global environmental drivers of influenza. Dealer, ER et al, proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, oct. 31, 2016.
And don’t forget it will be winter in the Southern Hemisphere in a few months so if temperatures and humidity are factors there might be more cases in the near future.
1
@Agent 99 The 'heat' needed to kill virus particles is far greater than 75F. In fact, they thrive at body temperature, 98.6F, that's why they can use us as hosts in order to multiply. The temperature needed to kill viruses exceeds 165F.
9
@Sue
Understood. The issue is not necessarily killing the virus it is impacting transmission. It is “proven” that respiratory virus cases drastically decline as weather warms up and drastically increase as ambient temperatures decline.
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2016/10/25/1607747113.full.pdf
1
Ambient heat doesn't "kill the virus." What idiocy. The increase in relative humidity simply makes it more difficult for suspended particles to remain suspended. Artificial heat systems decrease humidity. Humidifiers aren't possible in the streets.
It is highly unlikely that the virus moved “through a pipe” from one apartment to another in the building. Far more likely is that one person was infected, touched railings or a door handle and then the other person also touched that area within a short period of time and then touched their own mouth, nose or face. This is why washing your hands frequently and trying as hard as you can not to touch your face at any time is so critical.
18
@E Campbell Great question. The SARS coronavirus epidemic in Hong Kong illustrated how virus particles can, in fact, be aerosolized from sewer plumbing. Apartments in the 33 story, 13,000 resident Amoy Gardens complex had powerful bathroom exhaust fans which effectively pulled virus particles through dry U-traps in floor drains, which are interconnected with toilet sewer plumbing. The affected residents inhaled airborne virus particles created by the exhaust fan. The particles were also deposited on fomites (sinks, countertops, faucet handles, towels) in steamy bathrooms. The SARS coronavirus is found in feces, particularly among individuals ill with diarrhea, and can remain viable for over 48 hrs. So, plumbing and normal human behavior led to the environmental spread of the SARS coronavirus in the Amoy Garden apartment complex. This is an excellent case study for our epidemiology students. See this NEJM article for more detail https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa032867
16
@E Campbell All those buttons in elevators...
It looks dangerous to walk through a disinfectant fog as shown in the photo in this article. Is it safe to inhale? I hope the spray is not alcohol or bleach or one of the quaternary ammonium compounds, all of which could cause respiratory problems.
10
Right now, shaving 5 days off life expectancy is not the concern. In any case sprayed disinfectant is likely to have little impact.
In a dystopian country, a deadly virus and quarantines that feature citizens being dragged out of homes. And it's not in a work of fiction.
10
Sounds like America and AIDS. I'm glad the authorities are forcibly quarantining anyone suspected of having the virus who doesn't comply with voluntary orders. Any responsible government would do the same. Didn't you read about the Americans who have been forcibly quarantined on military bases surrounded by cops? Get real.
1
I'm interested in learning more about his experiences after having caught the virus. What were his symptoms? How did he feel as it progressed? How long was he sick with it?
4
Not in any way to diminish the suffering from and impact of the Wuhan coronavirus, but let's keep a little perspective. The C.D.C. estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. In the current season, half over, it is estimated there have been at least 22 million flu illnesses, 210,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths from flu.
While we appropriately pay serious attention to the evolution of Wuhan coronavirus, let us not let it cloud out the ongoing risks from flu and the need to act accordingly. If quarantining cities in China, cruise ships, and others is sensible and legitimate, maybe we should consider the same for anti-vaxxers here in America.
As with the 40,000 annual deaths in vehicle crashes, the flu is not a "sexy" news story, so does not get nearly the coverage deserved. On the other hand, the Wuhan coronavirus, makes for excellent clickbait. That is not to deny the legitimate stories, many hooked to the unknown elements. Novelty and the unknown get attention, until what was once novel becomes the new normal. That's human nature. Think of suicide bombers. In the mid 2000s when they started happening as more than a rare "curiosity", each had huge news coverage, complete with psychological "analyses", biographies, detailed descriptions, etc. Now when there is a suicide bombing, it is simply covered as any other bombing, "suicide" simply being consigned to being an adjective.
10
@Steve Fankuchen
and this strain of coronavirus is NOT the flu and if the true numbers were disclosed would prove to have a mortality rate of between 10 and 15 percent.
21
@Steve Fankuchen
Effort like yours to minimize the significance of this potential epidemic are a disservice to everyone.
Comparisons to the regular flu are especially misleading since nearly all the measures that are or can be taken to prevent spread of this virus will also simultaneously act to prevent spread of the regular flu.
Every epidemic starts with only a small number of victims afflicted. Ignoring them until they afflict a large number is the height of foolishness.
21
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
The thing is, we sadly do not know the "true numbers". So, you may be right or wrong. This is on the one hand side due to the sub-zero trust level to the official Chinese figures AND on the other hand side (at least to some extend) also due to the non-transparent data base of the WHO. If ordinary citizens could overlook the daily developing database with each case in China and abroad (indicating some basics on th patiensts such as age, sex, date of first symptoms, etc, and foremost the current Status of Health) we might feel a bid more informed. But, as things are up to the present day, we try to figure out the "true picture" by reading one story after another.
6
To criticize the Chinese government in China is Forbidden, because he criticized the government.
We criticize right here in America. Demonstrations. Right. Deaths.
But here we don’t overturn the government. The same person criticized the Chinese government. So we as Americans may applaud him for his criticism... But he is after the government!
Right here As a transition The presidents recognize each other. And they may totally disagree.
We need to overturn the government of the billionaires.
The virus is passed through the air ducts on board ships and buildings. By quarantining people on a ship, in particular, it just ensures the virus’s spread.
Without secure, autonomous venting systems, as hospitals constructed during the Ebola outbreak, more people will die.
9
@Anonymous
Speculation being presented as fact.
there is one incidence in Hong Kong of "possible" spread through an opened and unsealed pipe in an Apartment building.. likely a sewer pipe.
4
@Anonymous
Although air ducts are not a concern for this particular virus it would be great if Cruise ships installed HEPA filters in their ventilation systems, the way the newest airplanes have. Maybe the lack of such systems should be required disclosures for all ships and airplanes.
3
Re: American released from quarantine then testing positive:
How long was the person held in quarantine?
Is the quarantine duration every quarantine site is using is incorrect?
8
"One of the people evacuated to the United States from Wuhan last week is infected with the coronavirus, U.C. San Diego Health said in a statement. The Centers for Disease Control shared the diagnosis on Monday, the hospital said; the patient had previously been discharged after testing negative.
The patient, one of 167 passengers on a State Department-arranged flight, has since returned to the hospital near Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego."
This is tucked into a piece filled with disturbing facts. Testing procedures are ineffective if a person can be cleared yet be infected. How many of the 4 people in direct contact on the flight became infected? How many of those infected individuals also tested negative because they were asymptomatic? If this infected individual was cleared, (as the others on the plane were), how many have they now infected when placed into Federal quarantine with all who were not infected?
There's no ability to control the spread of this virus, just slow the spread. Each person infected with this pathogen can remain asymptomatic for 14 days yet readily transmit the disease, and transmit it through a building. Testing via symptomatology is not working. A vaccine is a long way down the road, but there needs to be a way to quickly develop a test for anti-bodies. Testing based on symptomatology means an unspecified number of infected individuals are cleared and released when they're actually infected, contagious, and spreading the disease.
13
@Robert B
A person can be infected, in the very early stages, and not test positive. Testing at a later date, same person.. positive result.
Since they are still trying to characterize the incubation rates and at what point a person become contagious... most protocols currently require a 14 day quarantine (what is believed to be the outside limit of symptom free incubation.
Apparently, this was not done with the San Diego case.. or at least it does not appear so.
7
42000 of 1.7 Billion. We should moderate our hysteria. Hearing that visits of Chinese restaurants in Chinatown New York dropped 50 percent is ridiculous. Do people think the virus comes from kung pao chicken or wantan?
Some health education desperately needed.
20
@Oliver No. But maybe they assume the owners/workers are Chinese (likely) and perhaps had either visited China, or have been in direct contact with someone else who had (again, likely). It's even more likely given the timing of the outbreak - Christmas and Lunar New Year when Chinese-Americans were (likely) visiting family in China, OR had family visiting them from China. It's not a bad assumption that someone working in a Chinese restaurant is in close contact with someone else who was in China.
3
The numbers of infections and fatalities from China seem highly suspect. China began an unprecedented quarantine of 11 million citizens after reporting just a couple dozen deaths from nCoV-2019. We have no idea how many of those confined to their homes in mainland China, now upwards of 50 million people, are sick or have died. This is one of the major problems of dealing with a totalitarian government that has a history of censoring communication.
13
@M Davis Good Point! Maybe the international code that covers medical emergencies and other matters of health and well being needs to include a provision for mandatory transparency and open communication. A lot of scientist types, medical sleuths, if you will, are scrambling to make sense of this virus, and without all the information, it may be near impossible to fully understand it.
5
@M Davis
Interesting... considering all the NYT drive by "experts" in the comments sections all declaring that China was slow to respond and incompetent.
So.. which is it?
Given it is a new virus, and it took some time to isolate it, gene type it, and confirm it was not seasonal flu or cold virus... I do feel China responded very quickly on this one. Which does not mean that they instantly have effective treatment protocols, much less sufficient healthcare infrastructure to address rapid movement of infection once they isolated it as a new and novel coronavirus.
3
@M Davis
There have been two fatalities outside of China, and hundreds of infections (1 fatality if you count Hong Kong as China). These cases are well documented, and contact tracing has exposed more of the “iceberg” than is visible in China.
Watch these numbers over the next week. We’ll then have batter idea about the danger.
With more reports of obscure and mysterious outbreaks of the coronavirus, the Trump administration is proposing to cut three billion dollars intended for global health in 2021 according to the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
This is the sort of crisis where having a president like Trump may be the greatest danger Americans face from the expanding epidemic.
22
When will America's ' Stable Genius' and ' Really Smart' President who knows more about everything than anybody be called upon by China and the world to fix and solve this coronavirus crisis?
Or is this a task for Jared ' Hidden Genius' Kushner?
35
@Blackmamba The President tweeted, or communicated in some way, to say that President Xi told him that this novel virus would go away when the weather changed in April and it becomes warmer outside. That's still a long ways away. But I wonder how Xi knows this about the virus.
1
@Chuck Neither of them can, in any way, shape or form, know that to be true. Some experts certainly hope that warmer weather may slow the spread of the virus like other coronaviruses, but since this is a new strain, it cannot be determined yet. Both Trump and Xi are both likely just spreading rumors hoping to make it sound like everything is just fine.
2
The number of infected has fallen below 3000 a day. That is certainly not bad news. But it's unclear to me if these are newly infected or newly reported. Also whenever the numbers suspiciously smooth, I become skeptical.
The narrative sounds more Alarming. Cluster of infections in Tianjin. Same-building transmission in Hong Kong. Super spreader from Britain. Diamond Princess as an incubator at sea. The saga of the cruise ship Westerdam eerily reminiscent of MS St Louis.
I can't figure out how to square decreasing numbers with increasingly more concerning narratives.
12
@William Fang As at Jan 23 when the Hubei lockdowns started, the confirmed case count was doubling daily. If that rate of spread were allowed to continue, by Feb 12th we would have had 850,000 confirmed diagnoses. Even with more than 50 million people in lockdowns there's increase of 2000+ sick people per day. Also, the course of the illness runs for 2-3 weeks with the 2nd - 3rd week being decisive for life or death. Two weeks ago, there were around 5,000 confirmed cases. Now we have 1,000 dead and approximately 4,000 recovered. So the rate of mortality is definitely above 2% because saying it's 2% is making an arrogant assumption that everyone who is currently alive but ill can be saved. That will not be true, and you can expect deaths to surge in the next few days as we comp onto 10K people, 20K people confirmed infected 2 wks prior.
4
@William Fang
The virus is contained but the panic spreads like wildfire.
The numbers are reported cases, which speaks even better for containment efforts. The number of reported cases are falling in spite of improvement in reporting.
1
@LHY
Hubei can only process about 6000 tests each day and each patient must be tested at least twice. Therefore, the ceiling on new confirmed cases per day is limited to about 3000.
1
I don't understand how the quarantine process aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship will work. Given there are healthy people and sick people together, doesn't the 14 day quarantine process essentially start over every time a new case is identified?
151
@ SL yes I think you are correct.
Just called my senator and asked that the US citizens be airlifted off the ship and be taken to one of the many military hospitals in Japan to be cared for properly. I urge everyone to call their elected officials. This will cause action.
Everyone needs help on that ship but now it's at a stalemate.
9
@SL Agreed. Plus, aren't they infecting each other?
7
@American 2020
This is NOT within the United States power to do so. Japan controls access to healthcare facilities in Japan... NOT the US.
The US may be able to get an agreement to have these Americans airlifted to the US, and then quarantined and treated in the US...but I would be that the US is hesitant to do this in the case of a known and growing infection rate on the ship.
1
How has this virus seriously not affected the stock market yet? China is the second-largest economy on the planet. China is basically closed for business.
13
@RVCKath It is affecting oil producing countries as China imports a very large amount of oil. They import the equivalent of 2 or three Western European countries.
That particular sector has been hit very hard
3
Interestingly I have something to add. We are a NYC based AC energy company with a Hong Kong subsidiary to sell our product in China. Things had come to full stop until last night when our chinese customer, a large manufacturer ordered shipment. This means their factory is back in full production. We may be an anomaly but it’s a good sign.
17
@Patrick R good sign in some ways (getting back to business), but I’ll wager that an explosion in virus cases will ensue. It is a mistake, and Xi Jinping will probably pay.
7
Given---at least as it appears from this and other articles---that officials have not yet isolated every conceivable person infected with the virus, or even precisely the numbers of ways the virus transmits (water pipes, possibly?), I think the overall numbers are encouraging.
If 1016 +/- deaths in a nearly six-week period seem alarming, they really are not. So far, the numbers aren't any worse than the average flu season toll of most westernized industrial nations. And as officials corral and isolate potential victims, and the incubation waiting-period passes (they believe, 2 weeks), we'll start to see a diminishing in the infection and subsequent mortality rate.
The coronavirus is likely at its peak---that is, if everyone, especially individual citizens everywhere, mostly in China, do what is asked of them. Two weeks of quarantine is a small price to pay for saving humanity; washing your hands is good business with or without a pandemic.
6
@David Bartlett
And you know that the virus has peaked how? On what data do you base that conclusion. Even WHO (and they would know) has not made such a claim.
5
Do they normally build 3 hospitals in two weeks for the “flu”!
9
"Hong Kong officials have put into quarantine dozens of residents of one apartment building after two people who live on different floors of the building were found to be infected with the coronavirus, the authorities said on Tuesday.
The two cases appeared to suggest that the virus had spread through the building, perhaps through a pipe, raising new fears about how the virus spreads."
Why does this suggest transmission through a pipe? Walk inside elevator, stand next to infected person, catch virus. Or touch the same button. Or maybe they each visited the same corner market within minutes of one another.
178
@Petrichor
All possible.
Prudence dictates evacuate the building and quarantine the residents, while they try to figure out the vector path, if any between these two people.
5
@Petrichor
of course you may be right. But there is the SARS story and, this time, I Read somewhere it must have been an appartment on the same corner of th building.
2
@Petrichor
Check the history of SARS in Hong Kong. The most devastating disease cluster occurred in a poorly maintained, high-rise apartment building. The transmission of the virus in that case was due to faulty sewage plumbing that allowed contaminated water to drip down through the central light well of the building. The initial reports of the apartment building transmission of the Wuhan virus is also via leaking plumbing.
9
I’m no epidemiologist, but it doesn’t look to me like this virus is under any control. Quarantining and sealing off buildings can only do so much, but in the end it will still get out of the bag. The main objective must surely be to buy time and produce a vaccine of some sorts, as quickly as possible, because it’s more a question of when rather than if this becomes a pandemic.
177
@Cosminoff
To get a pandemic each newly infected person must infected at least 1 new person - on the average. That doesn't seem to happen any more, not even in China. The number of new daily cases has fallen from about 4000 to about 2600.
14
The number of REPORTED cases. With 50 million or so Chinese confined to their homes and some reports of patients being turned away from treatment centers how could we expect to have accurate information?
37
@M Davis
I am not in disagreement with your concern that reported numbers may be inaccurate (whether by inability, incompetence or intend). However, even if the actual numbers are 10-fold higher the trend is still down (40K vs 26K). Furthermore, the rest of the worlds observations and numbers fit will with the Chinese numbers if we make the presumption that they are overwhelmed and have been undercounting particularly the milder cases.
3
Reading about all the unknowns of this virus is very concerning. After reading the article about President Trump as a germaphobe, quite frankly, I am glad he is. I think he can relate to a significant many of us that sit on the side of prudence. Money or possibly your life, you decide which you see is most valuable for a possible endemic.
2
Since some viruses are known to survive on airplane seat arms or tray tables, is it possible that this is also true of the corona-virus?
If so, is it also possible that the corona-virus could survive for some time on clothing or other personal objects imported from China?
8
Science is going to have to get us out of this one. The numbers of infected seem to be going up not down. It’s only a matter of time before there is an outbreak here and although we may be more prepared in theory, our constitution doesn’t really conform to the idea of whole cities being shut down or forced long term isolation. The communists are much better at that.
4
Stock up on water and canned foods.
9
Especially having a good way to boil the water if need be would be good, as in if the power goes out, but then, if that would happen you could potentially lose water pressure in the house too! So, a few canisters of potable water stored locally would be a good idea.
3
@Nycdweller Fill the bathtub with water. You can drink it and also use buckets to flush the toilet.
1
I wish the Times could get more information from Chinese Health Specialists. We are still very much in the dark with regards to transmission of the virus. We should also have some information of how leaky the quarantine measures are in terms of implementation. Is the virus spreading in spite of effective quarantine measures or is it quarantine in name only? I saw video of people being forcibly dragged out of their homes to be quarantined. That almost never works.
10
Traveled to the Grand Canyon, Zion National Park and Vegas the last week of January. I observed hundreds of mainland China tourists at these locations before the airport screening kicked-in. There are many ways this virus can leave China.
45
Why do otherwise scientifically educated governments still rely on the whims of scientifically ignorant leaders like Xi and Trump to decide how to fight epidemic viruses like this coronavirus. Respiratory viruses are undoubtedly spread from person to person by either direct person to person contact, or aerosol spray when someone coughs or sneezes spraying droplets through the air to those within a small area near the infected person, and through FOMITES. If an infected person touches a coin or an elevator button or a handrail or anything else he can leave behind infectious virions which can be picked up by the next person to touch that fomite. Face masks may reduce the chance of spreading viruses by aerosol spray, but most infections are probably acquired by touching contaminated "Fomites" like money or door handles or anything else. Handwashing is probably more important than anything else. We must assume everywhere our hand touches in the public domain is contaminated with corona-virus. Spraying disinfectant around is about as effective as the incense used to keep away the black plague in the Middle Ages. The minute you walk into your home you need to wash your hands before touching any object or surface and above all never touch your face, eyes, nose, mouth before washing thoroughly with soap. Now, what do we do about the objects we buy and bring home which may have been placed on the store shelves by human hands which have not been washed.
27
@RLW cell phones are a huge fomite, too. People cannot keep their hands off them. What use is washing your hands when you get home if your phone is covered in virus, and you pick it up immediately after?
1
@RLW cell phones are a huge fomite, too. People cannot keep their hands off them. What use is washing your hands when you get home if your phone is covered in virus, and you pick it up immediately after?
I’ll tell you what also helps: don’t touch things outside your house with your fingers. Touch elevator buttons with your knuckles. Handrails with your elbow, if you need the stability. Wear gloves if needed; not latex gloves, but any fashion/wool gloves will do the trick. I started this 10 years ago during flu/cold season (winter), and I’ve rarely got sick since.
5
It’s WATERBORNE? Heaven help us.
This may explain why the Japanese government doesn’t want to let people off that cruise ship (that has a self-contained plumbing and waste processing system).
3
@USAer
It is also transmitted through feces
1
Why would they come to the conclusion that the virus is spreading through piping in an apartment building when the logical explanation is that it’s probably being transmitted by the front door of the building ?
19
Pretty clear from the article that they haven’t come to any conclusions, but are looking into the possibility and acting out of an abundance of caution.
“a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong, said that the exact route of transmission had not been confirmed”
16
@Mike S This kind of thing actually happened during the SARS outbreak where the virus spread among buildings in an apartment complex (Amoy Gardens) through the pipes and vents. It was a very well studied situation and since the viruses are so similar it's not that big of a jump to assume it's happening again.
21
Gina8 corrected me. She pointed out that during the SARS event, they found that the virus was transmitted through pipes.
2
Pipes? Does the article mean sanitary vents, sanitary lines, kitchen and bath exhausts, or heating and air conditioning ducts? Don't panic people with a generic word like "pipes".
92
“...Infections in a Hong Kong building raise fears about how the virus spreads....”
You just need one of the building habitants and his family, who could be infected without knowing, to touch the door handles or elevator buttons and then all others habitants that touch the handles will get it.
Now we are imagining that the virus has wings and flies trough venting systems!!. It could be true, like legionella, but there are also easier explanations.
Same way you will catch the flu if YOU DONT WASH YOUR HANDS
After a few days of traveling inside the USA and watching how we behave in public, I think that if people is not re educated on how to wash their hands, avoid buffet style dinners and practice simple infection control etiquette, this infections may not be that easy to handle
13
@Jlad If I had a nickel for every person I see who does not wash their hands after going to the restroom, I'd be as rich as Mike Bloomberg. As a former teacher, I've learned to detect the clues: too short of time in the restroom, no sound of running water from the faucet, and conspicuously dry hands. Most people don't know how to wash their hands. You need to spend the time it takes to recite the alphabet for lathering your hands, including the backs, before rinsing.
80
@L Bodiford Dry hands? I vigorously wash my hands every time, but the blowers and paper towels render my hands bone dry as I exit.
I'm not sure that people would be willing to go back to the practice of having a bathroom attendant in most bathrooms, but maybe that could help?
1
US citizen patient cleared by CDC after testing negative is released from San Diego hospital. US citizen patient urgently readmitted to San Diego hospital after CDC admits error in testing. Patient DOES have coronavirus.
Oops!!!
What was that about China's 'arrogant' Public Health bosses refusing to accept 'help' from CDC? I'm sure they're glad the WHO has now arrived.
25
@nolongeradoc
Isn’t there an app for that?
1
@nolongeradoc
Right. The article didn’t mention where this patient traveled upon initial release (remain in SD, fly to another location) or how it is possible for the same samples to test negative but then test positive. Are other people infected after being exposed to the false negative patient?
5
There was a similar case in Canada. No tests are perfect. All tests have false negatives — especially when the viral load is low early or late in the course of infection.
3
By far the Guardian has given more continuous news and advice about this virus and its consequences than any newspaper or news outlet in the United States. Shame on you for covering in such detail the tiniest news items about the self serving rages of Trump's synchophants when such a tragic health crisis is not. Just because it is in a seemingly distant location is no excuse when we are in a global economy.
78
What news do you want?
It’s a virus. It can kill but certainly not always, just like any virus. Did the Guardian report a cure? No? Then it hasn’t brought anything new at all except more warmed up virus-talk that we hear every year.
9
I disagree. I’ve been reading both the NYT and the Guardian daily, and I find the NYT superior in this instance. The Guardian is always a little more fleet of foot. The Times has far more breadth and depth in content when articles ultimately appear.
8
Square bracket request. [Xenophobia] is different than racism.
Xenophobia is a dislike of or prejudice against people from other countries.
Racism is prejudice, discrimination, or antagonism directed against someone of a different race based on the belief that one's own race is superior.
7
Why is no one talking about the real culprit in the Coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese governments total lack of safe food regulations. We get concerned when there is a small failure in our food inspections and a few people fall ill before recall. They allow the sale of live animals for food. If Trump wants to build walls maybe he should start by protecting us against inadequate FDA regulations.
51
I’m sure the new regulations allowing self-regulation of meat processing plants will help. I’ll probably go vegetarian.
19
@Surele
They allowed Boeing to self regulate. What could go wrong?
14
Well why not? Mad cow disease, salmonella poisoning, SARS, now nCorona. Join the dots and see the pattern.
If the world becomes vegetarian, such diseases won't arise, bilions of dollars will be saved, billions of animals will live, lots of water will be available..
What's not to like?
5
Profiling someone may be inappropriate as cause for an officer of the law to pull over someone over in a traffic stop. It's unfair to assume someone is criminal because of their appearance.
Suspicion or fear of carrying a communicable infection is not the same thing as thinking someone is up to no good. You can't blame someone for carrying a virus. However, sorry to say, there is no equal protection clause or civil rights to a virus or the person carrying it. Quarantine is a form of martial law in a time of public health emergency, which is where we are. Political correctness may not apply with the same obvious logic in matters of any new virus, no matter the source or the carrier. Admonitions against fear itself, fear of the other, fear without reason don't work when there is a new virus.
So what is a fair and brave and balanced reaction to this situation?
I won't be on a cruise or carousing in Canton, but what happens when the outbreak reaches home?
9
@larkspur
Don't forget, Donald Trump, and the Republican controlled Senate have cut funding to the CDC, and the NIH.
The new budget, cuts their funding even more. I hope US voters remember this in November , when the 2019 Coronavirus reaches our shores.
33
Scientists have suspected that 2019-nCoV can be spread through the air similar to influenza given the rapid rate of confirmed cases. It is also suspected that infected people can spread the virus before showing any symptoms, as well as for some unknown time after they are asymptomatic, though presumably that is only a few days.
So the folks at that mall back in January, they've been spreading the virus already if they've gotten it.
A lot of the measures being taken, such as spraying a disinfectant, seem aimed at easing public fears rather than there being any evidence of their effectiveness.
39
@Cheryl
WSJ is reporting that there is now concern that the virus might be transmitted for up to 3 weeks.
10
@Michele So this would be another aspect of its "novelty;" not only is it a new genetic structure but it has a built in capacity to incubate, or remain viable, longer than any other type of virus. That's interesting.
@Cheryl, I believe the assumption that people with the virus can spread germs before symptoms are present has been debunked. I think Germany concluded that initially, but later found no evidence to support the initial conclusion.
Serious unanswered question: How dangerous is this disease to well-nourished, otherwise healthy persons exposed:
*Means of exposure (food, air, physical contact or other vectors - which vectors actually transmit the virus?)
*Population: are males/females equally vulnerable? Any sign of genetics of a given population making it more/less vulnerable?
*Do existing anti-virals, either given post-infection or as prophylactic seem to be effective? If so, which ones and dosed how/when?
*Aside from “high fever”, by what mechanism does this virus kill. Which systems are affected?
Sorry, but I don’t think I’ve seen these kinds of questions addressed by any media. There’s lots of panic, but, aside from suggestions we avoid sites where there have been outbreaks, contaminated food or individuals exposed themselves, there’s been little information.
Real data reminds me of the nonsense guesswork from allegedly informed sources during the early days of AIDS (at first, amyl nitrate, a recreational inhaled drug popular in the gay community was blamed), or total ignorance being pedaled as fact - the “demon” theory that encouraged mass cat slaughters during the Plague outbreak of the mid-1300s, an act that helped the disease spread when flea-carrying rats were left unchecked.
Please publish a story on the actual disease beyond photos of the virus.
210
@Eatoin Shrdlu from what I've read, the experts don't have solid answers yet. As with any area of science, researchers don't want to put forward any conclusions until they're rigorously tested. This takes time.
26
@Eatoin Shrdlu
The picture of the doctor who first warned of the coronavirus outbreak showed a seemingly fit and bright person. He certainly had access to health care and good information about how to respond. Died.
Of course we don't know how many people had a mild infection and survived or even had no symptoms. Could be 10 times more than reported. How many colds have we survived in our lives to date? 10s.
36
I think the NYT is doing the best it can, given very limited sources of information—my sense is that scientists themselves don’t yet know the answers to the questions you’re posing. Yes, they’re very important questions, but I think we just don’t know enough yet to be able to answer them...
24
Hard to grasp that people are still getting on cruise ships, even fighting for their right to board a cruise ship.
167
I’ve always maintained that cruise ships are just floating cesspools. No thanks.
38
@Mary Zambrana As unappealing as I personally find cruises, I don't see why anyone should cancel a planned Caribbean cruise due to a virus centered thousands of miles away.
10
@Mary Zambrana
Many cruise lines are no longer accepting passengers with Hong Kong, Macau or Chinese passports, or passengers who have traveled to China within 30 days of sailing. I believe one or more of the cruise lines cancelled all Asia cruises for the next few months. Caribbean and Panama Canal (current seasonal itineraries) sailings should be safe although subject to the normal risks of norovirus, slippery decks, drunks jumping overboard, etc.
2
I'm guessing you can get a real cheap cruise right now.
while I see the concern about this virus ; folks wash your hands ALOT and don't don't touch your face at all---dont touch doorknobs use a paper towel etc
how does this compare to the flu? Is it worse somehow?
I don't see these drastic measures for the flu and I think its just as
deadly?? I don't know.
3
It’s believed to be at least ten times as deadly as the flu, possibly more (for example, especially in cases where health systems are overwhelmed, like in Hubei province at the moment). For this reason, even though it’s not as deadly as some other diseases,like Ebola or smallpox, it still has the potential to cause many, many more deaths than would be caused by the flu...
24
@Joan It is deadlier than the flu, but not drastically so. And the VAST majority of the deaths are the elderly who had other pre-existing conditions that made it harder for them to fight this virus. Teens to middle aged adults weather the virus about the same as someone who has the flu.
But on the contrary to your point, you see gargantuan efforts to fight the flu every year when we inoculate hundreds of millions of people around the globe for what strains of that virus we expect to appear in certain communities.
But the flu is uncontained. We live with it daily and have normalized it. If we can stop that from becoming the reality of the corona virus by stopping it before it becomes a self sustaining virus within the human population on a global scale, then we should. We will save ourselves from having another flu-like vaccine every year.
16
@Crim
"the VAST majority of the deaths are the elderly"
I'm sure the elderly are truly comforted by this.
3
This is the first time I can say I support Trump as the Times attempts to ridicule him as a germaphobe. This animal-borne virus is clearly very contagious and I support all precautions and frankly the picture of US evacuees getting off a plane into a bus without hazmat suits on worries me. They are all more than likely candidates for the virus and should be treated as imminent sources of such especially now that new information suggests transmission is other than extremely close quarters. Go get that virus Trump bc your instincts appear to be dead-on correct.
13
@Nancy
Donald Trump and the GOP have cut funding to the CDC (Centers for Disease Control) , NIH (National Institute of Health, which pays for basic medical research) and other US Health agencies.
While American hospitals have luxurious waiting rooms, with carpets and fireplaces, ask your local hospital how many (positive pressure) Isolation Rooms it has, or how many Respirators are on hand..
49
@skier 6 President Obama also cut funding to the CDC.
The shortfall in funds was made up by Prevention and Public Health Fund.
In FY 2010, the budget request for CDC funding was $6.31 billion.
In FY 2011, it was $6.26 billion. That year the Prevention and Public Health Fund helped soften the blow by adding $610 million.
In FY 2012, the budget request was $5.81 billion while the Prevention and Public Health Fund helped soften the blow by adding $752 million.
In FY 2013, the budget request was $4.99 billion, while the Prevention and Public Health Fund helped soften the blow by adding $903 million.
In FY 2014, the budget request was $5.22 billion, while the Prevention and Public Health Fund helped soften the blow by adding $755 million.
In FY 2015, the budget request is $5.39 billion, while the Prevention and Public Health Fund is expected to add an additional $809 million.
There is a trend in those numbers as well.
4
@skier 6
I think you mean negative pressure isolation rooms!
2
Looks like your graphic needs to be updated? In the last week, what has been learned about how contagious the Novel coronavirus may be (human-to-human transmission, possible transmission through air vents and pipes) means it is more transmissible and thus more contagious than this graphic shows. And, is it more deadly than depicted in this early assessment?
28
@Cindy Sage
Actually the graphic shows a boxed range of infection rate and mortality rate... which echos what health officials are currently communicating.
So, for now.. that graphic shows the right range.
The rumor and panic mill on the internet however.. have in some cases blown those numbers through the roof.. for no other reason than fear, suspicion, doubt, and perhaps desire to sow some hate as well.
5
The Times and the news media in general should remind us in each story about the virus of how it’s severity affects those with compromised immune systems more than others.
A comparison with other current and past flu outbreaks would be helpful each time too.
It is scary, but let’s limit the panic.
10
The number of worldwide cases and deaths are not being accurately and consistently reported. Compare numbers given at various sites. Where is accurate information available?
4
I’m not sure accurate information is available to ANYONE in China, for multiple reasons—both the degree to which their medical system is overwhelmed, and the degree to which secrecy is ingrained in their governmental system. In order to have truly accurate data, everyone in the country (as well as all other countries) would have to be tested for the virus, and that’s just not logistically feasible at present (& indeed may never be).
19
@L. Summers Goodness, give the scientists working on this a break. If countries don't report (and some haven't) there's no way to get an accurate count. And it's likely some people have the virus but are asymptomatic -- but able to spread it. There's nothing easy about tracking this disease.
10
This is going to put a bigger short term dent in globalism than Steve Bannon.
40
Is there any evidence "disinfectant" works against a virus? Infectious disease experts say simple masks are not effective.
15
@FHS
Disinfectants work against viruses. Even a simple 5 or 10% bleach solution will dissolve a virus on a hard surface if left to sit for a minute. Wiped up and thrown away to never hurt anyone.
Hand sanitizers not so much because there's no rinsing or wiping action like washing at a sink.
7
Please explain the pipe hypothesis a little more clearly. I'm left almost with visions of Magritte .
55
Google Hong Kong SARS and pipe. The Fox News article actually has the most detail about sewage pipe, droplets and exhaust fans (not a news source I would normally recommend).
2
@Mister Box
Good one.
That's not Coronavirus either. ;-)
2
“two people living on different floors were found to be infected with the coronavirus
The two cases appeared to suggest that the virus had spread through the building, perhaps through a pipe”
Sounds ridiculous. Why not through simple touching of the elevator buttons?
222
@Jay Peters
If the second case had a pipe leaking sewage from the units above the pipe then that is the more likely explanation since everyone else is touching the elevator buttons also.
That sewage would have been diluted by many other users by the time it got that low. It ups the risk since a great many people have dilute sewage exposure routinely without realizing it.
11
@Jay Peters : I seems to recall that with SARS there was a sick resident whose drain pipe was shared with apartments below. When the residents in the apartments below also became sick, they realized the virus was travelling through the pipes. Maybe something similar is happening with this virus.
62
After analysis, experts have concluded this virus may spread via fecal matter as well as airborne droplets. Experts see "close contact” direct spread via airborne droplets as far more likely than having these droplets spread indirectly versus surface transfer in the person’s absence (a risk they consider relatively low, though obviously disinfecting frequently touched surfaces is still recommended to mitigate it). Perhaps, in the scheme of things, transmission via fecal matter through a sewerage pipe is still seen as much more likely than surface droplet transmission for two who never had close contact in an apartment building?
6
Wouldn’t it be more intelligent to check if she’d traveled to China recently rather than decline her Chinese passport? Would they potentially allow an American passport holder on board without checking if he or she had recently visited China?
43
@Lola
Of course, and BTW, the passport would show if there was a recent visit to China or any other country.
11
@Linda
Not so, very few countries stamp passports. And unless airport officials share and have access to all travel data, I can't see how to know where in particular, the traveller has been.
17
@Lola & Linda; Her passport would not show if she had been recently visited by a relative or friend from Wuhan. Not sure why the couldn’t just question her and accept her answers.
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Think of Hong Kong as a cruise ship with 7.4 million passengers.
Watching the spread of illnesses (including but not limited to the Wuhan coronavirus) on cruise ships is a microcosm of a possible contagion among the residents of Hong Kong. Both Hong Kong and cruise ships are densely packed living spaces and both have hundreds of nano or micro cabins and apartments (‘gnat flats’) between 100 to 200 square feet. How the coronavirus infects passengers on cruise ships might also predict what might happen in Hong Kong (7.4 million people mostly living in very dense high-rise buildings). Sealing off Hong Kong from China and quarantining cruise ships are necessary. Protecting the people of Hong Kong also protects the rest of the world.
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@Charlie Chan Quarantining seems to be widely misunderstood. Quarantining the Diamond Princess does not protect the passengers / crew on the ship. rather it protects everyone else! i.e the people of Yokohama. To the degree that people isolate close contact from one another this may provide some small level of protection. The 2019 N-CoV transmission modes are unclear at best..... Asymptomatic transfer from person to person, droplet transfer or aerosol transmittal and viability/lifetime on surfaces is just not known.
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@Charlie Chan
That’s a ridiculous statement. The same argument could apply to Singapore, Manhattan, and basically every major city with high population density.
Hong Kong’s reaction to this outbreak have been ridiculous and shows major sign of societal breakdown. Students pretending to be medical workers going on strike, pipe bombing a hospital and train station, set fire to back-up quarantine building, and clearing supermarkets of everything like preppers.
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Charlie - I’m surprised that Hong Kong has a population of just 7.4M people. Interesting fact.
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