https://www.muscatineiowa.gov/638/Chinese-VP-Xi-Jinping-Visit I cannot believe this has not been scrutinized and investigated especially with the Iowa Caucus debacles of 2016 and 2020.
We must remove the coronavirus from the White House. SAD!!
15
Looks like what they are doing is helping and we should be thankful. We should help out with money and supplies. I don't think a handful of CDC observers is likely to be all that helpful, but perhaps they could tag along with actual relief workers.
3
You put the word "virus" associated with a sickness and the USA and the rest of the World goes bonkers. The worldwide deaths from influenza is six figures and no one gets excited. This will pass, like the flu season, and next year there will be a corana vacine and the pharmacuticals will make a fortune.
4
Considering China's censorship and the people who do not show symptoms, it is better to assume the numbers are grossly underreported and the virus has spread farther and has infected more (at least double).
21
If there was a Corona outbreak in some American cities, and Trump decided to have authorities or the military -- like in China -- go house to house taking everyone's temperature and forcing those with symptoms into a mass quarantine, I'm wondering whether at this point Republicans in Congress would back Trump violating Constitutional rights on such a massive scale.
6
@Dan88
Why always about Trump for God's sake?
6
From the MSM and other posts there are many people saying that the coronavirus is nothing to worry about since in a normal flu year the U.S. has about 45,000 flu related deaths. They say just chill, compared to that this is nothing. But I keep circling back around to the fact that China also gets the flu and has at least 100 thousand flu related deaths every year but they hardly every quarantine more than a school or apartment building. So what is really going on that they feel the need to quarantine 60 million people (the equivalent of California and New York state combined) and shut down much of the rest of the country and economy with economic loses I can only imagine are in the tens of billions per day. The official numbers coming out of china don't justify the measures they are taking. It must be worse.
83
@Patrick THINK about the # of cases OUTSIDE the US and the # of deaths. I don't think things are worse given what we've seen. They may even be better. It is overall still bad but it aligns with a rate in the low single digits and a high chance it will be controlled. Probabilities aren't certainties but neither are they uncertainties.
The problem is uncertainty. We don't know how bad it will look and while China did something bad initially now the repsonse is overkill I think but they don't want to be blamed if something goes even more wrong. So I think their actions are purely precautionary.
This is like saying "Why is the US putting all the people coming from China in a military base for 14 days? It must be more dangerous than it looks." No, since those 14 days are already over and no one else has died but this way it prevents things from getting out of hand.
The flu is a known quantity.
16
@Patrick the unknown. That is what is going on.
5
@Patrick
China is as susceptible to hysteria and politically motivated "do somethingism", as the rest of the world. They actually have a better excuse for their over-reaction than we have, because they were dealing with it in the initial phase where nobody really know how infectious or how deadly it is. The good news is that whatever they have done so far has brought the number of newly infected per new case down below 1.0 so the epidemic is slowly going away as long as they keep the same measures in place as they have now - that goes for the rest of the world also.
5
In the last day, they reported 2,650 new corona infections, a 33% reduction from the previous day.
In the last five days, they reported an average of 3,400 new infections each day, an average of 6% fewer new infections per day as compared to each previous day. This was down from 10% increase for the previous three days.
In the last five days, they reported an average of 77 deaths per day, an average daily increase in new deaths of 5.4%.
If that 5.4% daily increase in new deaths continues, 55 million people will die of corona virus in the next 365 days.
That won't happen of course. But, this situation isn't completely under control yet.
2
@John Huppenthal
Given the time delay between being infected and dying from the infection it is completely expected that the number of newly diagnosed cases per day will begin to fall before the number of new deaths per day falls. We had the peak new cases per day on Feb 4'th (3927), that has fallen by more than 1000 by now (2676). The number of deaths is expected to clime until around Feb. 14'th and then it should begin falling.
4
@John Huppenthal
You wrote: "In the last five days, they reported an average of 77 deaths per day, an average daily increase in new deaths of 5.4%. If that 5.4% daily increase in new deaths continues, 55 million people will die of corona virus in the next 365 days. That won't happen of course."
Double check the math. If the number of deaths each day increases at 5.4% each day, and the initial number is 77 deaths, we're all dead before the year has elapsed.
2
In the US we have 44 million people with no insurance at all and 38 million with lousy insurance. In real life 82 million that can not afford to purchase a flu vaccine, go to a walk in clinic, or God forbid go to a hospital and face a bill of 10,000 dollars per night.
So those people if infected will have to continue their lives, go out to work and shop, contaminate four more people each and finally drop to the ground.
That's life in the US.
38
@Leon
That, right there, is a reason why many societies decide that everyone gets healthcare - just by presenting themselves at a clinic or hospital.
22
@TheraP Just thinking if the fact than we have 82 millions w/o real insurance has incidence in the 80000 deaths that we had last year due to the flu. A vaccine runs from 50 to 90 dollars here in Florida.
1
The W.H.O. has been ignored for weeks by China? Why hasn't that been the headline for weeks?
10
Let us pray for all those brave men and women who are on the frontlines in this battle with this killer virus. And let us pray for all those poor souls aboard that ship off Japan. The human race is connected by a thread , and the wars we fought are pathetic and stupid, the pet projects of the vain and egotistical adventurers. This virus will be defeated by human beings from all corners of the globe, trained in their field by other humans who passed on their knowledge. Just as it took many men and women from many countries working off the theories and studies of many more before them, each a rung up the ladder to discover and perfect antibiotics, these antivirals have the same trajectory. Men and women , different colors and different races working hand and hand to save the human race ...and yet we continue to kill each other in wars. Bless the peace makers. Continuing to fight wars against each other is not only completely insane ,in many ways it’s suicidal.
10
I simply want to express my gratitude for these continual updates along my heartfelt concern for anyone treating or coping with this virus, whether they are patients, family, friends or those of us trying to keep up with the daily changes and potential for worldwide pandemic (now or in future).
The world gets smaller all the time. And we are all part of the same human family.
39
People here are wondering why the "hysteria." Well, in the 2017-18 flu season in the USA, about 49,000,000 people got the flu, and of those, about 79,000 died. At a 2% death rate, if 49,000,000 Americans get the coronavirus, we'd have 980,000 deaths. Plus, the burden on the health care system would be huge, and who knows how our nation's businesses and schools would react. And if the coronavirus is more contagious than your average flu virus, we could end up with a lot more than 49 million people in the USA catching it, and well over one million deaths, in less than a year.
46
@Chad
We have had a total of 10 imported and 2 home grown cases of this Coronavirus, so far. At that rate of "homegrown" we would have to import 47,500,000 cases to get to your 49,000,000. China so far has only had 40,000 cases and their new case numbers are getting lower every day. So even if we allowed every new case in China to come here (and we won't), we would still fall about 1000 times short of your 980,000 dead people - still only 10% of the deaths from this years flu. So yes with about one new case reported in this country each day it is complete hysteria to be more concerned with this virus than the flu.
1
@Ivan we don't need to import 47,500,000 cases in order for that many people to get sick. It is obvious by looking at the statistics the virus has the ability to spread quick enough to reproduce at an exponential rate at least within confined corridors. People die from the flu because people don't get vaccines and so it more easily spreads. How soon do we want another disease whose best prevention relies on people getting vaccines? You say Corona virus isn't to be worried about because the flu kills more Americans, but that's not good argument because the fact that the flu is already so deadly would only make any other seasonal bug worse. If the disease does in fact spread at the rate authorities have seen and if the the virus mutates quickly enough, it would not be surprising if in a couple years flu and Corona vaccines would be the norm so let's try to temper the spread the best we can. Better we had one flu than two.
6
@Josh
In this country we had 10 imported cases (infected in China) and 2 homegrown cases (spouses of the imported cases who were not taking special precautions. Those simple facts are not compatible with your theory of "reproduce at an exponential rate" or "spread quickly". With current precautions this virus will not become a problem in this country.
This routine update from CDC is very helpful. It has a chart that shows relative death rates for various diseases....the percentage of people who die from contracting the disease. While the actual number of deaths from common flu is large, the death rate from the flu is very low -- far less than 1%. It looks like the death rate from this coronavirus is somewhere around 2% but it might be higher because there is so much still unknown. Dr Fauci said 'we don't know what we don't know'.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
8
@B
And a link for the WHO, updated daily:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
5
Why hasn't our compassionate president ordered military or arranged private MEDEVAC of U.S. citizens aboard quarantine vessels before they start dying? That's right, he's run out of paper towels or "thoughts and prayers."
5
As much as I dislike our Conman-in-Chief, to be fair, those whose wanted to get out were given many opportunities to do so.
1
@T. Rivers Are you sure the people on the cruise ships were given a chance to get off? I hadn't heard that.
3
Why do I suspect that the fallout from the Coronavirus could have been worse if it had happened here in the US than in China where it began?
The US is grossly unprepared in dealing with such a crisis.
Look at the photo showing the shop employee checking temperatures of shoppers in Wuhan. Apparently they are doing what it takes to contain the spread.
Do you think we can do something like that here for the greater good? Think civil rights organisations, activist lawyers, nation wide injunctions, circuit court appeals, supreme court, etc.
Do we have a plan on how we will tackle such an emergency? Or do we just bury our heads in the sand and pray?
18
@Bhaskar
Down the road we may be in healthcare difficulties, but there is way less likelihood of such another such novel Coronavirus to start here, because it is rare in the US for strange species of live animals to be marketed all in the same place over long periods of time.
7
Yes. the US reponse would be far worse. Just remember AIDS, Katrina, and the hurricane in Puerto Rico. Just imagine if this took place in India, which already has the worst health indicators in the world. Utter catastrophe.
10
@Bhaskar
"The US is grossly unprepared in dealing with such a crisis"
On what basis are you making that judgement? You provide none. China went into denial with this, just as they did with SARS. The doctor who first raised the alarm was silenced and is now dead from the virus. As for nation wide injunctions, etc. Ridiculous. There actually are emergency policies in this country that would be enacted far sooner than they were in China.
2
Unfortunately, thanks to cuts to the CDC from 45, the U.S., is ill prepared to deal with the Coronavirus!
50
@Mari Anybody is susceptible to any disease and the U. S is not the only one dealing with this virus
3
@Emily : Mari didn't say the U.S. was the only country dealing with the virus -- or that it was the only disease that people here are susceptible to.
She is simply stating the fact that our current president has made significant cuts to the CDC and other governmental public health roles. This leaves our country ill-prepared to deal with this particular virus.
18
@Emily, you didn’t understand what I said, I simply pointed out that Trump has cut funding to the CDC and also, other programs that will be crucial IF Coronavirus becomes an epidemic here in the States.
4
If they would stop eating everything that walks and the Chinese Government have some honesty about what is going on.. they would not be in the mess they are in.. Stop and Think about what you are eating.. China is killing our Animal World!!!
26
@Erick, Walks, slithers, crawls, flies, swims, hops, runs. Some creatures were just not meant for human consumption. What pandemic will it take to convince the Chinese?
2
@ORS And who decides, you?
2
The real question is, of course: what is the denominator? Deaths are assessed with great certainty, cases? Not so much. This is vital information for both containment, protection of the vulnerable, and reducing fear.
Also? Get your flu shot if you haven't. Flu is peaking in the US now and has already killed tens of thousands of people.
3
@Multimodalmama According to the CDC, there have been 8,200 flu deaths this year. Let's not get carried away.
3
@Multimodalmama You are referring to morbidity rate which is extremely important and always takes a while to sort out.
Although sad, this is a great example to the world how pathetic a communist nation works.....they hide and lie to their people to protect the falsehood about how tremendous the "my comrade" system works.
This is why a free press is so key top democracy!!!
17
@The Fig and you think the US will do any better under the current regime? Oh, and do you need a "good used car", or, perhaps, a bridge?
13
@Multimodalmama Spot on. America’s current regime leader can only offer paper towels, lies and insults.
8
@The Fig I truly don't see what the Chinese Communist Party has done about this epidemic that is so "pathetic".
They're reacted very speedily to release the genome, taken drastic measures to stop the spread as much as possible, diverted resources to support the front line personnel, and collaborated with international governments to help foreign citizens leave. Not to mention, the numerous updates provided to the international community.
I'd call this impressive.
Also, I respect the Chinese people for their self-quarantine. Apart from extenuating circumstances, they've chosen to stay home during their version of Christmas/New Year/Fourth of July. If this was America, people would be protesting in virus-spreading crowds and getting in the way of the government and medical organizations actually trying to help. Any and all quarantine measures who be denounced as encroaching on our civil rights.
At the height of the SARS scare in the U.S. I needed to make a round trip flight from Atlanta to LA within a 24-hour period. It was a job interview. The flight was a little over 3-hours one way. I landed, went to the interview, spent the night and flew back home the next morning.
I got the job and within a week of my trip I became ill with an upper respiratory ailment that nearly cost me my life. It was touch and go for about four days. My poor new employer wound up paying me for thirty days that I could not work.
My point in raising this experience is to say that people who live relatively isolated lives in small towns like me are susceptible to some of the diseases that others are immune to and I believe that what ever made me sick was akin to the SARS virus that I contracted on that trip while closed up on those planes for hours. My lungs were permanently damaged from that ailment and I am vulnerable to pneumonia as a result.
Wearing a mask when traveling in planes and outside of our normal areas make sense given that we do not have immunity to the same diseases that others do in places far outside of our homes. If I had only been just a little more careful I could have avoided getting sick. A mask could have given an extra layer of protection that I was unaware that I needed.
27
@Judith
What is your age, medical history? If you were hospitalized why didn't they test you do determine what made you sick?
3
@Judith
Thank you. I am finding it strange that people are upset to see people wearing masks, or are in some way judging people for it. I ride crowded subways and trains all the time. The guy behind me on Amtrak was coughing the whole trip, and when I got up to get my coat, I saw he looked feverish as well. I would have been glad to have been wearing a mask--if I could get the right kind--but I know people would have "reacted," which makes it uncomfortable. I seem to be OK so far, but feel like a mask would not have been a bad idea.
10
@Scott I assume that I was tested while hospitalized however it was not shared with me. My doctors treated it as pneumonia. It started in my head and then progressed to my lungs. I was 60-years old at the time. I had never been that sick before and was in average to good health.
6
I checked the statistics on line and it seems that last year alone about 80,000 Americans died of the regular flu and its consequences like pneumonia. So far out of a population of millions in China around 800 have died. So why is everyone being so hysterical?
4
Because it’s it kills between 2 percent to 4 percent of people (20x to 40x deadlier than the flu), and there’s a sting possibility that it will become endemic. If quarantine fails, it’s going to be a tough few years for humanity (take the number you found for Flu and multiply by 20).
25
@Susan in NH Presumably China is thinking that this virus will end up causing far more than 80,000 deaths.
10
@Susan in NH because zebras are far scarier than thundering herds of horses. The unknown terror, tapping into entrenched bigotry and xenophobia, makes people who don't know how to do math or research go into primal terror mode. It is certainly a strong indictment of our population's scientific literacy! Particularly given the anti vaxxer people not getting their flu shots and then panicking about this!
3
Hard to understand how China got here. They have as close to total control of their society as anywhere. Why haven't they eliminated the sale of wild animals- the source of most of the viruses that jump to other lines of food sources, then to humans- in their food chain?
9
@DJSMDJD
Lol...China has a LONG way to go to becoming a "first world" country. I don't care how much money they have. How about their educational system? Their understanding of Judeo/Christian values? Their treatment of the environment? Their political/legal system is like a mafia, Xi is a hardliner against individual rights. They have no free press/media. Their only difference with North Korea is that China is desperate to make money. So...I disagree with you, its not hard to understand how China got here.
6
The reporting to date would appear to lack a sense of proportion.
In Wuhan, the epicentre of the virus, there are around 11 million people, of which some 800 have died - as a proportion of the population, even though it is spreading, that's a miniscule number. How many die of ordinary flu in a year, or malaria?
2
Unless I missed it, the Times does not seem to be carrying the story of the business meeting of the global gas company at the hotel in Singapore, where numerous people were infected and then traveled back to their home countries. This includes the Briton who from Singapore stopped in the French Alps and spread it to at least 5 people, including a child (causing the precautionary closure of two schools) and then traveled onto Brighton where he went to a pub. This case did not originate in China and could be a vector for international spread because travel hasn't been banned from Singapore as far as I know.. And it seems to indicate "super spreaders," infected people who spread the virus quickly to a much higher than usual number of people. The Times coverage is great but has a socio-political slant. I would like to see more medical/clinical stories on how it spreads, on individual cases etc.
39
@Clarice Check out the JAMA website; they posted a very detailed study from a University hospital in Wuhan on Friday 2/7. It analyzes the first 138 coronavirus cases treated at the hospital in great detail.
The website is “jamanetwork.org”.
A few high points -
1. 40 of the 138 patients were hospital employees, who became infected while working at the hospital.
2. 6 of the 138 had died by Feb. 3 (the end of the study period), so the fatality rate was stated to be 4.3%.
3. 26% of the patients required treatment in the ICU. Complications included shock, ARDS, arrhythmia and acute cardiac injury.
HOWEVER.
At the end of the study, 6 patients had died, 47 had been discharged, and *85 were still hospitalized*. 11 patients were still in the ICU. The stated 4.3% mortality rate assumes all 85 still-hospitalized patients will survive. Seems a rather optimistic assumption, no? The study does clearly explain this caveat, but only of you read the whole thing - it’s kind of buried in the discussion, near the end.
Side note - On Friday night the NYT briefly posted a link to this 138-patient study on the JAMA site, calling the results “alarming” in their headline. As best I can tell, the NYT took the article & link to the study down soon after...rather odd. The study is still available on the JAMA site,, at the top of the home page.
9
@Clarice,
Your information seems very specific. You mentioned that the Times has not carried this story. Can you provide your source for the rest of us? (Serious question/genuine request.). Thank you.
@Matthew
I initially read it in The Daily Mail, which is sometimes dubious, but The Guardian also covered it:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/hunt-for-coronavirus-victims-as-trail-leads-from-singapore-to-uk-and-france
3
I can't find an article anywhere that mentions how long the virus and symptoms last in the people who have recovered. How bad were their symptoms? What were they? Did most get pneumonia and need antibiotics and fluids or did the symptoms resolve on their own? How many of the 37,000+ are still sick?
4
You won’t find it in the news, but there are studies published on JAMA, the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine that lay out these details. Heck you, you can even just look at the figures.
Quoting from the latest JAMA article:
“The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. (...) As of February 3, 47 patients (34.1 percent) were discharged and 6 died (overall mortality, 4.3 percent), but the remaining patients are still hospitalized. Among those discharged alive (n = 47), the median hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0).”
9
@Adam Fourney
I found the 138-patient Wuhan hospital study posted to JAMA fascinating, but the the stated 4.3% mortality rate is misleading.
At the end of the study, 6 of the 138 patients had died, 47 had been discharged...and 85 were still hospitalized (including 11 in the ICU).
Mortality is listed as 4.3% in the study, but we really only know that 6 patients died, and 47 recovered. We don’t actually know the outcome for the other 85 patients.
4
@emily
Yes, I wasn’t passing judgement on the outcome of the study.
In fact, the extremely high rate of ICU cases, and of ARDS is terrifying, as is the fact that people are hospitalized for long periods of time. (indefinite for a majority of the cases in the study). Almost certainly, there will be a higher mortality rate among this cohort.
My hope is that the milder cases are excluded from this cohort. Given the strain on the Chinese system, I believe that by studying only admitted patients, we are just seeing the most severe cases and not those recovering at home.
3
These are the questions I have:
- Does the notoriously bad air quality in China help explain (in part) the higher death rate there? Are people’s lungs diseased so they are more susceptible to infection?
- Given that they disease can be contagious before it is symptomatic, is a pandemic now inevitable? Should the diagnostic question now be not “Have you been to China?” but “Have you flown in the past two weeks?”
I’d love to hear any responses to these, or hear others’ questions.
31
Wait, so is the global toll greater than the global toll from SARS? Or is the toll in China higher than the global toll in SARS? Or are we just talking about mortality in China across the board? I’m a little confused about the two headlines (one on the main page and one once you click on the articles). I’m on the app, by the way.
5
@Shane Davitt The toll in China alone is higher than the global toll from SARS.
7
Ok it’s clear now. The titles may have been edited since I submitted my last comment.
2
@Shane Davitt
I always read the responses that start with 'Wait'.
It usually means that someone wants to dig deeper.
1
Just what exactly would the US government do if we had a virus epidemic? Or, say, a retrovirus epidemic? The government would blame the victims for their unhealthy lifestyle, and many in the population would claim that God was exacting revenge. Certainly the US government would not be providing free hospital stays.
Why is there so much finger pointing? That is just so easy to do, and so satisfying, for some reason.
26
At this point, we need to assist China with ALL of the help that they need. From face masks to canned goods. China is capable on their own but at the very least it will show some good will.
Outside of that I think we have been doing and are doing what we should be, canceling flights, planning and enforcing quarantines. There are only two things that will save the USA from what does appear to be the modern day version of the Spanish Influenza pandemic that afflicted the world in 1918. 1) Cutting the country off from whatever country becomes significantly infected. 2) A vaccine that is ready in less than twelve months.
10
@Michael Anthony We do not need to help China they can deal with it on there own. Our people went to China where this disease started and they are to blame on why this virus is now worldwide. I agree with cutting the country off from other countries that are dealing with this virus but more people will die if it takes a year to find a cure
1
Gee, why would the Chinese decline such a "noble" offer of all of 13 people from the CDC? Might they be a little busy? Might the translators be more effort than is worth it? Might it be because the CDC is notorious for spying and stealing medical information during other medical disasters for which they later claim patents to profit off of the disaster? Might it be because the US has not actually provided useful aid? Might it be because of all the China bashing? China already provided the Coronavirus genome to the world as soon as they had it. The US is still seeking to profit off the Ebola virus, why should anyone trust US offers of Trojan horses? It's too bad.
7
The United States offered personnel from the CDC but the Chinese declined. I don't think they want witnesses to what's going on And from that I inferr that things are a lot worse than reported by the Chinese government.
30
The Times should not only continue but enlarge its coverage of the voices in China protesting the official response to the public health crisis and calling for freedom of speech. As one commenter suggested, A medical Tianamen in progress.
7
I read an article about the coronavirus mutates at a molecular level and how it becomes so deadly for some people.
It involves the virus entering the cell. It does it very efficiently and creatively.
No, folks, this is not flu or a bad cold.
The coronavirus virus strikes the lower respiratory system, not the upper.
Old and young are being affected and science hasn't got a handle on it yet. Many in China get very ill too quickly and because their medical system is completely overwhelmed, their patients are dying instead of recovering.
Many patients may get dehydrated from fever and go downhill from there.
Crisis always reveals weaknesses/gaps in society. Our Hurricane Katrina comes to mind.
This is terrible for China and for people trapped on cruise ships. How many doctors are on those cruise ships? Medical supplies? Crazy situation.
13
@American 2020
Those who become ill are takeoff of the cruise ships and taken in quarantine to hospitals where they are treated.
3
I am tired of all the outrage about cordoning off Wuhan. While what is going on there is truly and horrible, horrible disaster, what were/are the options? People shouldn't criticize until they truthfully answer the following question: if teleportation were possible, would you feel okay about Wuhan citizens, coming to your city or town to access services?
3
Dr. Li Wenliang reported his urgent public health concerns, was arrested for speaking the truth, and died from the virus.
As reported by CNN: has a second reporter on the virus, Chen Qiushi, disappeared? And if so, why?
The Chinese government might think limiting information sources on an epidemic is smart and will scare reporters and residents. It might scare tourists, along with foreign governments and diplomats they want desperately to take them at their Word.
Until the Chinese government makes a clear and convincing case (not words) over an extended period of time that journalists, residents, diplomats and tourists are all safe, why go?
Maybe they should see Jaws.
The Chinese government sometimes feel describing them as “inscrutable” is unfair. But with 50,000 sick and 1,000 dead projected by next Sunday, and their behavior to date, perhaps they would be more comfortable with “unfathomable”.
The condolences of Americans and everyone else are extended to the deceased, their families, and the Chinese people. This is very sad.
Is the Chinese government making the ordeal worse?
4
Looking at the trend line, it will be about 1000 deaths by this time tomorrow (I believe we’re at 900 right now, and is climbing by 80-90 per day)
This virus is a serious threat to the people of America. All flights to the US should be stopped. Anyone that has travelled outside if the US needs to be held in 14 day quarenten.
All travellers need to be checked for a temperature. The US government needs to start stockpiling antiviral drugs that treat this virus.
1
When will the authorities in Asian and African countries finally eliminate, once and for all, the trade in exotic and/or bush animals for culinary and ‘medicinal’ consumption? That this practice continues unabated is unconscionable and dangerous.
How many pandemics do we have to suffer through before our own governments insist upon mandatory quarantine for any and all individuals who’ve originated from or visited these at risk countries?
Many countries require a quarantine for dogs upon entry...why not humans?
12
@Susanna
When I was a child those with small pox, yellow fever, measles or chicken pox were quarantined by law. But Civil liberties arguments stopped that. Chances of bringing those laws back? Probably nil unless king Trump decrees it!
4
The Chinese Communist Party continues to lie and deflect blame, leaving over a billion Chinese people as well as the global populace at severe risk. Such is the danger of an autocratic government. If you care at all about free access to information and holding truth to power, vote for the Democrat in November like your life depends on it. Otherwise we will end up exactly like China.
6
Each day the New York Times reminds me of decency and humanity with its reporting. Thank you, NYT.
22
It strikes me that the reporting of this virus lacks a sense of proportion.
So far, in Wuhan, the epicentre of this outbreak, there have been about 780 deaths - Wuhan has around 11 million population!!
The chances of catching it and dying are miniscule.
Regular flu has a far higher death rate.
8
@cristofa Not true. Seasonal flu has a far lower death rate at about 0.01 to 0.05%. It has killed more people because far more people have been infected. The flu is estimated to infect up to 1 billion people worldwide a year. If the flu death rate were 2%, you'd have 20 million deaths per year. About 60-90 new deaths EVERY DAY in a city like Wuhan is remarkably high mortality. The coronavirus case fatality ratio may seem low, but even if it were only 0.5%, you could still have terrible increases in deaths. If just 1% of the world were infected with the coronavirus and 0.5% of them died, you'd have still have about 350,000 deaths. That's a lot of people who could die if precautions aren't taken.
8
The death rate of this is 100-200 times the regular flu. The regular flu is much more prevalent though.
4
Actually the mortality rate is undoubtedly significantly lower, not higher, since the number of confirmed cases by testing is far lower than actual cases due to overwhelmed resources for testing. Models indicate actual cases may range as high as 150,000-200,000. What is clearly worrisome is contagiousness but the fact that the spread remains at the same mathematical rate means the quarentine is having effect in retarding the spread. Without the quarentine measures the rate of contagion would have become exponential.
2
Over 10,000 dead from the flu. Why isn’t the press covering that?
4
@Doug Because it happens every year. And the death toll in the US this winter hasn't reached 10,000 yet.
1
From all the clinical data gathered so far of the Wuhan Corona Virus (WHC) also called the 2019-nCoV and the previously recorded data on the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus it seems the WCV spreads more rapidly and thus more virulent than the SARS virus. With over 37,000 infected persons in close to 35 countries, WCV is highly contagious and to date the mortality rate is 2% but could go higher as the medical support needed by patients to recover will be stretched thin.
1 silver lining in SARS and WCV is that most infected persons will be cured on their own with optimal medical support. Persons with suboptimal immune system such as persons >60 or those with inherent or acquired immuno deficiency will have difficulty clearing the virus or preventing spread within the body especially with the lungs.
The lessons from SARS are key to build on for eradication WCV just as SARS was.
1) Quarantine and containment goes a long way.
2) Proper masks, eye protection, hand washing with detergent containing soaps, application of hand sanitizers and avoiding exposure to untested exotic animals in wild animal markets like civet cats (the source of SARS virus).
3) Staying away from persons running fever or coughing who are not your patients or family members.
4) To ward of an infection from a microbe for which there is no vaccine and building a robust immunity one needs to ensure intake of balanced meals.
5) Even though there is no specific treatment, symptoms can be treated.
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Between 2011 and 2015, MIT was investigating a general antiviral treatment called DRACO that seemed to have great promise. Their web page about it even mentions SARS as something it might be able to treat.
http://news.mit.edu/2011/antiviral-0810
I'm sure they had their reasons for halting research, but I have to think it'd be worth a try on 2019-nCoV.
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When I took a citizen’s disaster preparation class offered by NYS a few years ago (because I live in a rural area and am a public servant), I kinda knew all the stuff (stay calm, have a plan) except one thing. They recommended having enough supplies to live on for *three weeks.* Originally born in the city, this seemed like an awful lot of food to store. Reading the (excellent!) coverage here about China’s experience and the necessity of “holing up” to avoid getting sick ... boy, do I now see the wisdom of this recommendation and why NYS did it proactively.
I’m sort of surprised none of our leaders are saying - hey, make sure you have some food and basic medicine on hand in case this hits us. But I guess that would cause panic buying a la Hong Kong and the toilet paper. So I will say to my fellow NYT readers - psst, if you can afford it, throw in some extra T.P. and dry goods when next you shop. Get your 3 weeks’ supply and make sure to have extra on hand for people who might not have been able to stock up.
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Eventually, man will seize to exist on earth, not from a nuclear conflict, but by a simultaneous multi-continent virus outbreak.
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Typically, it's in our nature to jump to the worst possible conclusion. This noted, I believe it's going to get worse before it gets better. Is this simple? Yes. Possible? Yes. Likely to become pandemic? No; with a very large "N".
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But the question isn’t “how many have died so far?”, it’s “how virulent and contagious is the virus?”
Announcing death is dramatic, but I would hope for more from the NYTimes.
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Recognizing that the Chinese government is probably under-reporting cases and deaths, I still appreciate hearing the estimates on new cases and deaths. I've noted that the ratio of deaths to reported cases has hovered around 2% (1 death per 50 cases). I would find the reporting on new cases to be even more complete if I was (we were) also told how many of those who have been afflicted are judged to have recovered.
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@RT
There is a national tally of deaths collated against confirmed cases released from hospitals, updated daily. This number broke even several days ago, and now each day the treated and released outnumber the deaths more and more. However, western news media for some reason only present the number of deaths (believed to be accurate) but not the numbers treated. Perhaps the numbers are cooked, or perhaps only the bad news in China is ever to be believed. Believe what you may, for what it's worth.
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@RT
It is unfortunately not very popular for newspapers to provide actual data. I suggest the following website for good "digested" data with links to the original sources.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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I recognize the concern people have for this new threat, but what I find interesting is that the death toll so far is still a tiny percentage of what we see from other forms of preventable death, such as gun violence or motor vehicle crashes. The level of urgency, allocation of resources, and collective focus is extraordinary. Why is it that we as a species cannot seem to muster anything remarkably close to this level of commitment for human caused premature death?
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@Daniel H Good point but there is a difference. A new infectious disease can become much bigger very fast.
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Because they don't affect peoples' portfolios the way a global pandemic would.
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Perhaps the economic repercussions.
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Like climate change we knew the next virus, and many more, would arrive because we don’t relate for the health of the environment, animals, and people with the need for government and regulation. Rather we let the market decide. The markets only care about money.
We have the horrors of factory farming with the unregulated delivery of antibiotics. We sanction for some nuclear weapons (unless you have it already) but not when the markets need the trade. China should be sanctioned for human and animal rights violations. They aren’t and we deal with the symptom not the problem.
Only governments and regulations can help minimize the threat. The same with climate change.
We have three key opportunities to teach civics and embrace the role of government.
1. CDC
2. Climate change
3. Limiting the power of the president and new laws to put pressure on elected officials to ensure they work for the people. First, publicly funded elections.
Now let’s fund them.
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@How Much Is Enough?
"First, publicly funded elections."
Given the extent that social median now engulfs our lives, would publicly funded elections make a real difference in what the voting public hears? I can see TV ads dropping off but it seems social media could replace that, especially for voters now entirely within their respective media silos.
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@How Much Is Enough? Where did the coronavirus originate and which country is the most heavily polluted in the world? Same country. With very heavy top-to-bottom regulation.
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@How Much Is Enough?
Really disappointed in NYTimes commenters that the #1 most recommended comment doesn't at least make mention of Trump's role in this.
Are we really going to ignore the Trump angle?
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