Take a full time job with benefits, chop it into 2-3 part time jobs with no benefits = “job growth”.
7
225,000 part time jobs with no benefits?
1
Where are the accountants who should be pointing out how must of that economic growth is financed via the Feds borrowing more money and increasing the national debt by around $1 trillion each year? Take that trillion out of the economy and jobs will fall around 4.5%. At some point we will no longer be able to borrow via bond sales and will have to take the LBJ approach (required for financing the Vietnam war) and have the Feds inflate the currency. When that happens those in office are not going to be too happy for the taxpayers will blame them and not the creators of this coming problem.
3
This is a very good report, and we should all feel positive about it. However, it is a great stretch to give Trump credit for the job growth. He did not make the weather warmer driving increased employment in construction and hospitality industries. If he wants to take credit for the increase he should also own the 500,000 over count for previous months.
3
There's still no reported measure for how many people are earning a living wage for a job with any kind of benefits or security. GDP is not a reflection of overall economic well-being; nor is the performance of the stock market. An isolated figure like the number of jobs does not tell even half of the story: what kind of jobs? how many jobs are full-time? how many workers must have two or three jobs to get by? I continue to see the effect of the power of repetition: every time the media makes mention of the "booming economy," it becomes more and more accepted as an established fact, without reference to what is actually meant by "booming."
For 5 years I ve been working for the same fortune 500 company as a Technician .Since the day I got hired 5 years ago I've been trying to find a better paying job What I dont understand is why my resume was getting more hits 5 years ago with higher paying employers as compared to today .These companies want you to work for free with less benefits. Since the big tax cut my company cut out alot of perks such as holidays ,over time monthly rewards for work performed and benefits.It still is a decent job but I feel like stuck.
3
Why the obsession with a single measure: the unemployment rate as an indicator of the health of the economy? Would you go back to a doctor that diagnosed your ailment by taking your temperature only? A balanced view of the state of the economy would include measures of the size of the active workforce. And the size of all working age adults that would no longer be looking for a job - and not counted as unemployed. With flat salaries, low paid jobs, no benefits, part-time jobs, being treated you like a peon on the job, how many decide to make their living outside of employment? And do measure how much of the increase in GDP goes to the 99% - the obscene inequality of the new robber barons? And do measure the level debt of governments - Federal and States? And corporations, and households - the debt castle of cards? And do estimate the risk of collapse. And measure the distance between people's good feelings about the economy and the reality - the propaganda machine effect? You do not have to feed the illusion.
1
And most of the added jobs were added in California the state that Donald hates but is willing to take credit for...
Let me remind you that the 'jobs created' is a net number. You take 2,500,000 jobs created minus 2,275,000 job eliminated, and there's your 225,000. At the same time, millions of workers resign from one job and start a new one every month. Millions more graduate from school and get a job for the first time, while millions more retire.
Wages for a particular position may be stagnant, or even go down. If a guy making $80K retires, they may hire a fellow who was making $50K to do his job for $65K. His old employer may hire a new graduate to do his job for $40K. The wage for each job went down, but the new holders of these jobs are making more money than they made before.
This is why the economy is so difficult to figure out. However, it is safe to say that as large numbers of retirees who were making big salaries exit the labor force, and more younger workers at lower salaries are added, average salaries will trend lower.
In a society with a large number of retirees, a smaller number of workers have to produce enough goods and services for everyone to consume. This means that workers will not get as much for their own consumption, because they have to share with a large number of non-workers. Economic theory would predict lower wages and higher prices in such an economy, and that seems to be the case.
3
I find it disturbing when the media talks about this so called great economy when 44% of the workers earn $18,500 or less, with much of the population unable to afford an extra $400 bill, much less any form of healthcare, while housing is also becoming unaffordable and our infrastructure is crumbling.
Here’s an idea for you media outlets...emphasize these issue rather than how well a very small portion of our wealthy are doing.
3
NYT readers are complaining because prices have risen, wages don't pay for everything they need, too many people have personal debt and some people are still poor.
As if these are "new" problems and haven't always existed.
It's like complaining about the weather, which they also do as if it's within someone's control and that person isn't doing his/her job.
2
The question that Americans who are "economy-first" voters have to ask is, whether it's possible to have a robust economy without the pettiness and hatred? And if it is, who they confidently believe can deliver it.
1
Who are the beneficiaries of this unemployment report? It makes a great sounding headline, the equivalent of "We're not failing!"
In truth, corporate employers are the real winners here. The "bump" given by the tax break was good only for corporations, who used it for stock buybacks, not wage increases.
Increasingly, more workers cannot afford rent, medical copays or medicine. They must buy clean water, as it is an increasingly rare commodity.
There may be a surplus of low-paying, part-time jobs. Employers escape paying for benefits, workers work 2 jobs.
The desperation to survive among workers leads to workplace abuse by managers, be it sexual, or unpaid overtime. Corporations take advantage of the most desperate individuals, those least able to fight back.
How many Amazon warehouse workers need to be injured or killed before their conditions improve?
Workers, even middle class, are one illness away from total financial collapse. The "economy" is only good for the "haves"--those who take advantage of the "have nots".
3
Job growth is much like 7 Takeaways From the Democratic Debate in New Hampshire, when there really is only one: The system is broken and needs to be replaced. Stop tinkering and start building.
1
Just bought a $ 500 Samsung that cost $1,500 ten years ago. But everything I buy costs 10 to 20 percent more than it did a year ago. I expect those increases to steepen real soon. The Deficit is ballooning as Trump increases military spending (billions of which are going to build a wall) and cut taxes.
No immigration and the baby boom grand children are pet dogs or nonexistent. Within three to five years, Humpty Dumpty is going to fall off his Wall and there won't be a penny to pay the repairs.
5
The negative impacts on efficiency and productivity from tariffs and the positive impacts of both fiscal stimulus from the trillion dollar deficits and rollback of environmental regulations impact different segments of the population very differently.
The segments of the population whose wealth and income are primarily derived from labor, are mostly unable to offset the negative impacts on efficiency and productivity from tariffs. They generally must pay the higher prices that tariffs cause for all products made from steel and aluminum, and many items that come from China such as bicycles and Christmas tree ornaments. Furthermore, the reductions in productivity and efficiency caused by trade restrictions that disrupt supply chains and raise input prices reduce the ability of most workers to obtain higher wages from their private sector employers.
For those segments of the population whose wealth and income are primarily derived from investments, it is much easier to offset the reductions in productivity and efficiency caused by trade restrictions that disrupt supply chains and raise consumer and input prices. For many investors, the low interest rates, caused in many cases worldwide by actions of central banks, in response to the reductions in economic activity, productivity and efficiency caused by trade restrictions boost the value of their fixed-income securities. Lower interest rates also lift equity prices..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4315039
2
Economic booms should involve paying down the national debt, not increasing it to astronomical levels.
9
Until now, whenever the US economy was zooming, OPEC would rise oil prices. Higher gas prices don't affect only those with cars. Everything gets more expensive, since things are transported, and soon you have a recession.
It is our energy independence which saved us from a recession, baffling all the economists.
The foundation of the Green New Deal is to make energy more expensive. It's a promise. Ban fracking in the first day in office.
That would bring us back the missing recession. With a vengeance.
3
I guess you are not aware of the number of bankruptcies in the exploration and production business. 208 in the last five years. $122 Billion in debt. 94 bankruptcies in Texas alone. These are the little guys.
The fracking shoe is just starting to drop!
I remember watching the 2016 election results on all the channels, in turn. At some points it became clear that Trump will win.
Fox had some kind of expert in something on set, and the fellow suddenly apologized and left. Half an hour later, he was back. He had called his broker, and placed all possible buy orders.
Since then, his money likely doubled.
3
@novoad
So you’re saying he had missed out on the massive Obama Stock Market Boom, and then is happy that the stock market has grown more slowly in Trump’s first three years than Obama’s first three?
3
Is this just more fake news? Has anyone actually attempted to verify the accuracy of these numbers? Isn't the job of journalism to verify the number being fed to it by the Administration. Trump accused Obama of making up the jobs numbers. How far fetched would it be to believe that Trump is doing precisely what he accused Obama of doing?
8
The number of unhinged comments in this space is collectively more disturbing than the target of their hysterical hatred.
This is great news. More people are working and at increasingly higher wages. Give Obama partial credit if you wish. But genuinely good news should not trigger venom in reasonable people, regardless of political affiliation.
5
@Chris
If only it were 'genuinely good'.......
Unemployment numbers are far higher than what's being reported - as bad as the Great Depression. I'm seeing plenty of stories about mass layoffs - and seeing the same with my neighbors. Nothing good about job 'creation' except low paying 'gig' jobs with no benefits.
Inflation is in double digits in most cities.
6
An aside: Fantastic photo♡
1
How can we know, one way or another, that the job data is true?
@CarefulReader
I think you can believe the Fed Chair. He is on record stating that the greatest wage gains have been by low- and median-wage workers. There is no question that this is a positive outcome.
2
Nitpicking the economy should be left to analysts. Anyone else complaining about a general economy with such low unemployment that really needs work should probably be out looking for a job and leaving macroeconomics to the professionals.
3
Lets wait for the readjusted numbers next month. And we are still all working two to three jobs,paying out the nose for living expenses, outrageous health cost, enormous debt, no savings and in the end nothing to show for it. Great economy.
5
Let’s hope we’re getting something for Trump’s 60% increase in the deficits in 2018 and 2019 versus the CBO forecast just prior to his inauguration. Deficits should be going down in a booming economy; historically they’ve averaged 1.5% GDP when the economy is strong, versus the 4.6% we had in 2019.
7
Trump obviously is going to take credit for maintaining economic improvement that has been ongoing for over a decade. Obviously any time 225k jobs are added to the economy during a given month is great news. While much attention is focused on aggregate data, not enough focus is directed to the public understanding of what the data actually means. Such as, how many full time jobs with benefits were created; or many jobs in manufacturing does the report include.
Are we actually experiencing an economy that is in a golden age, or living in one reflective of the roaring 20s of the past century. History informs us that the roaring 20s ended in the Great Economic Depression of the 1930s; and it is very possible that the current golden era will end in a similar situation. It will be interesting to see how Trump will blame such an outcome on Obama.
4
@Dearson "It will be interesting to see how Trump will blame such an outcome on Obama."
A pool of major investors predicts indeed a fall in stock prices of about 40%. In the unlikely case in which Sanders or Warren wins.
Trump would blame them indeed.
Are we on the cusp of another 10-year recession?
The US economy just keeps inflating, like a bubble.
Economies falter when debt outpaces earnings. As the GOP continues dumping borrowed money into the economy, we are mesmerized: it seems magical--as if money was free and everywhere.
Alas, as we all know, but won't admit to ourselves, this free and everywhere mindset is nothing more than more "voodoo economics". The debts accrue, they come due, the bubble bursts, and 99% of Americans fall on hard times.
5
Democratic presidential candidates would like everyone to believe they will magically wipe out debt, raise wages and cure the planet.
In fact, this is what progress looks like.
4
America is more respected abroad. Painful for some but true. America with more jobs than ever before. Painful for some but true. It is what it is. The electorate’s not going to make a sharp turn on a long stretch of the road at full speed and no brakes.
4
@sebastian
Trump is the envy of other leaders because of the strong US economy, which they wish they had.
5
This despite all the news reports of job cuts, and bankruptcies? Macys closing stores, banks shipping departments to India and retail collapsing? There are far more reports of job losses than hirings.
There are so many questionable 'adjustments' and 'assumptions' that these numbers are near meaningless. Adjustments after the fact are usually downward.
I've been seeing continual layoffs over the last decade - with many people approaching what should have been their peak earning years. They run through their 401K's while looking for work - which is taking years for many. Those that do find new jobs are lucky to make half of what they used to earn.
Meanwhile college grads are seeing far lower starting salaries than expected - half of the earning power their parents had when they finished college (though loaded up with 5 to 10 times more debt).
9
If Trump was just continuing the trajectory under Obama, why does Trump have 5 million more jobs than the forecast from the Obama Administration? The question answers itself. Trump blew away job and unemployment expectations with policies that reward work. These policies of empowerment and accomplishment broke the stale Obama trajectory based on dependency. Trump had a vision that more was possible. It was a vision Obama and Hillary lacked.
6
After being unemployed for a long time, I finally found a job plucking chickens for minimum wage and no health care insurance. Thank you President Trump, without you I wouldn't have found this job.
8
@Joseph B
If the Democrats had their way, that job would have gone to an undocumented worker who would have been paid a fraction of the official minimum wage.
You would have been priced out of the market and remained unemployed.
Bottom line: If there were no illegal workers, you would be making above minimum wage, and you'd have health benefits.
4
Undocumented workers have a way of taking the minimum wage or below jobs Americans refuse to do, like picking pesticide-full fruit, night shift dishwasher, landscaping in Arizona in the summer.
2
@Laume
Yes, and as more undocumented workers arrive on the scene, wages will be further depressed for other occupations.
And many of those jobs, with their shrinking wages, will now be taken by undocumented workers, because Americans who previously held them, will now "refuse" them.
And that pattern will only get worse.
1
The Obama economy created more jobs in his last 3 years as president than Trump did in his three years as president. Wages of the working class have been stagnant since 1973 when adjusted for inflation. The stock market is not the economy and many of the 'Trump jobs' are part time or have few if any benefits. It's not a 'great economy' for the majority for working folks, period!
21
The same lies over and over. The economy is humming. Yes, for the upper class it's humming along nicely. For the rest of us, not so much. I know people making more than their parents made who are on the bleeding edge when it comes to finances. I know people who want to work but who can't find jobs in their fields because of age discrimination. I see job descriptions that classify jobs as entry level but want applicants to have 2-3 years experience. I hear of companies turning a nice profit and then cutting jobs.
Salaries are still stagnant. I started working in 1980. It was not a good time to enter the workforce. Most Americans born after 1954 or so have not had the ability to save for retirement, to stay with a company long enough to retire from it, to feel financially secure in the present or for the future. We did not surpass our parents living standards. To keep up we overextended ourselves on credit. Living beyond our means is now the norm. We have to in order to live in decent housing, put our children in good schools, pay for our college loans and their college tuition, pay the medical bills, and try to live decent lives.
Welcome to America where the only way up is to be born there.
16
@hen3ry
MOPE - management of perception economics. Keep saying 'All is well!' often enough and people may believe you.
It's astounding how you can have record low numbers for workforce participation - with real unemployment at 20% - while officially claiming unemployment at 3%.
Both parties found out that it is far easier to lie about the economy than try to fix things. Hence the blatant manipulation of CPI and unemployment stats.
7
Indeed, a great news.
I don't work any longer but I wish I was at that age and in need of a job.
I would have no worry.
Strangely, I am watching the Democrats debate.
Not one acknowledged this good news. They could have said that they would build on this economy, but no it's all doomsday.
What started as a Great Recession under Obama - is sure looking like a Great Abundance - at least for jobs.
And as the POTUS says - good times are still ahead.
8
It would be nice if more of the jobs paid a living wage and had benefits.
10
@Neil Please check the timing of the Great Recession. This was beginning in 2007. Obama inherited the mess and thankfully kept it to the scale of Great Recession and not Great Depression.
Dear God, of course the economy is humming! We have a $1 Trillion deficit. That’s the equivalent of $3,000 of free money for everybody in the United States. It’s a sugar high. No, it’s worse. It’s financial heroin. We are all junkies, and we will eventually have to clean up.
13
How much do these jobs pay? Is it a boom economy if you’re working one job at Walmart for $9 per hour and a second job at McDonalds for $8 per hour? We need to train people for better jobs than this.
16
A lot of comments by folks that are bitter. It's sad that some would rather see the US in a recession than low employment under Trump.
8
Involuntary underemployment, minimum wage jobs with no benefits, and juggling multiple minimum wage jobs with no benefits because full time jobs with benefits are rarer is not a “great economy”.
9
@Laume
The unemployment rate is 3.6 per so it is a great economy. Some of those issues were present under Obama as well with a higher unemployment rate. If a person has a minimum wage job it usually means they don't have either any skills or an education, which they should remedy.
1
It's laughable that anyone would believe any statistic from this administration. That's the point of this administration--what can be trusted when everything may be a lie? I guess if a person wants to believe in job numbers so they can believe in the economy, it's an act of will, or willful self-deception. Without a living wage, or a living wage from one job-- not two or three jobs cobbled together--these stats are fairy stories. When you go into the forest leaving bread crumbs to find your way out, they'll all be eaten, and then you'll be lost.
10
“We’re opening up the factories! We’re opening up the mines! We’re adding millions of jobs!” You will no doubt hear this refrain at the next Trump rally near you.
Sorry, Mister President, not so much. Total U.S. mining employment remains around 50,000, and has fallen slightly since your inauguration. For perspective, Starbucks employs over 180,000 in the United States alone. The solar energy industry currently employees about 240,000. Coal is yesterday’s news.... yet it’s one of your favorite topics. Pure showmanship targeting voters in depressed rural areas in swing states.
The American manufacturing sector is in continued decline, losing jobs month after month. No, we’re not ‘opening up the factories’ or creating ‘millions of jobs’ in manufacturing.
Wages also are stagnant and have not kept pace with the cost of essentials like housing, healthcare, education and child care. The scant wage gains that are reported are largely the result of substantial increases in the minimum wage in ‘blue states.’
These wage and employment statistics in fact document the continued expansion of the ranks of the working poor. Whoopee.
GDP growth has been anemic — hovering around 2% — despite massive tax cuts and a ballooning federal deficit in the midst of an economic expansion. Most of the gains flow to the top 1%, whose net worth has grown an estimated 29% since the Trump inauguration.
Sorry. None of this is good news or evidence of ‘the strongest economy in history.’ Au contraire.
19
Pelosi should have shut down the government over a budget with $1 trillion dollar in deficit spending in a growing economy.
Instead she handed Trump his re-election with a turbo charged economy.
Republicans keep outsmarting the Democrats.
2
Another win for Trump and America. I'm not quite sick of winning yet, but I'm getting there.
5
I haven’t yet read the article but my first thought upon reading the title is: And part of trump’s government reports these figures, so they are doubtless lies.
3
i ask once again why is it that the stock market always tanks when these "wonderful" jobs numbers come out?
2
@Jj Ganesh
Because they decrease the chances of an interest rate cut.
1
I know the job market has growth.
I have 3 of them.
12
With most of this growth in the Services sector, which is rampant with low wage job slots.. often at minimum wage..... which is NOT a healthy way to make ends meet an raise a family while keeping roof over the family....
... can we please stop with the peddling of the cool-aid here.
The only people doing well in this economy are those who are financially secure... which is a small minority of the total US population. I fall in that category.. but I would never be so arrogant as to ignore the real financial struggle facing most Americans today... and with Trump.. their plight is getting worse... and their children will be saddled with the debt burden that Trump is using to artificially keep the economy looking "normal" and "strong".
14
We just don't know if even more jobs would have been created under a different administration. We just don't know if the economy would have grown at an even higher rate under another administration. People just don't understand fallacies like correlation implies causation.
5
320 billion divided by 12 equals 26.666 billion per month over spending stimulus. We paid $118,518 per job.
4
This chart looks like the rate of growth peaked when Trump was elected and then started to decline. It is not a straight line, but tends generally downward. How does that square with Trump’s golden age rhetoric?
9
@Sherry the fed lowered rates to near zero and printed billions to get the economy back to 2008 levels i.e. this is not growth which was actually only 2% over 8 years
6
The share of adults between ages 25 and 54 who are employed reached 80.6 percent, its highest level since mid-2001!!!
That is all you need to know. The Trump economy is pulling people from the sidelines, including minorities and ex-convicts.
Keeping job growth going late in an economic cycle (as opposed to early on, like Obama) is really, really hard.
Those claiming that President Trump has no impact on the economy are very wrong. He reversed the slowdown with his tax cuts. He appointed then pressed the Fed to realize their mistakes and reverse course on rates. He replaced a whole slew of anti-business regulators with pro-business individuals.
All of the above is a huge boost for the economy. And one that no Democrat would ever advocate for.
11
@Baron95
I tend toward Democrat and abhor Trump's personality, the way he ridicules people who oppose him and some of his policies, including those that are eroding the environment.
But to be fair, a robust economy this far into a presidency cannot be attributed to a prior administration.
(It was Obama who signed legislation making it easier for those with criminal records to apply for work.)
5
Yes, you are right. Unemployment rate has gone down and economy has improved. Excellent.
6
@Anil Where can we find a report of the raw numbers? With so many retail jobs lost, I am curious to know what jobs people find and if the rate is at all reflective of people who have one than more job or a salaried job and a side hustle. How does wage compare to living expenses (housing + food + medical+ childcare)? It is quite likely that the job holder remains financially insecure, such that this job report is a bit misleading.
12
The information I would like to see is how many of these “new” jobs are being filled by people that need a second job to make ends meet. Wage growth is slow for our unemployment figures and should be higher. Many people are having their hours cut so benefits will not have to be paid. It may just be these people who are taking these jobs. If that is the case it really shouldn’t be considered a “new” job.
14
Will the labor department ever report the salaries of these jobs? Or are we pretending a job that pays $20,000/year is basically the same as a job that pays $200,000/year.
27
@ben
Not everyone has the ability and qualifications to hold a $200,000 a year job...
3
@Marcus Aurelius Of course, but why doesn't the labor department report on how many have been created. Out of the 235k, were 90% $20k jobs?
112 straight months of job growth! Let's see: Trump has been President for 36 straight months so I guess that at least (112 - 36 =) 76 months of that must have been down to some other guy. I doubt that Trump will mention that.
28
@Andrew Whataboutism at its finest. You think this doesn’t help Trump? Bernie is torching your party. Trump will bring the Tiki torches and burn up what’s left.
The breakdown gives a better picture. Manufacturing
actually LOST jobs. U.S. manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs due to a strong dollar and trade war. Durable goods lost 11,000 jobs. Auto manufacturing lost 10,600 jobs.
What increased: Health care added 47,200 jobs. Construction gained 44,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality gained 36,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing gained 28,300 jobs. That is, a lot of TEMPORARY jobs.
BTW, the government gained 19,000 positions.
18
@citizen thanks for the info. It is my understanding that people who return to work after a strike are counted as "new" , giving us a false metric. Public access to the number would be useful.
3
How many of those jobs are 2nd or 3rd jobs for people already working? How many are part time? How many are temporary? It's easy to make such numbers lie?
24
With these reports I really wish they would give a salary breakdown of new jobs. It is relatively meaningless to crow about new jobs if they are minimum wage jobs.
19
How much do those jobs pay? What benefits come with it? How hard will it be to get that job if it pays well? How much is our deficit? How much is our taxes going back to the people that pay it? How much $ is at the top compared to most workers? When is Obama going to get credit for this "great" economy? If economy is all that counts, why did Obama get bashed everyday by evil GOP and supporters? Why is GDP barely at 2%, CA is higher than that. Why is the headline misleading?
17
Funny...if the economy had lost 225,000 jobs, this would be front-page news, likely the lead story.
11
@Chris: Not that funny; Losing 225,000 jobs would mean we are entering a recession. The economy has gained jobs for 112 months and in the vast majority, it has been between 150,000 and 250,000. In any case, the figures can be revised at least twice and large gains are often offset by smaller gains in earlier or later months.
I'm black and searching for a job for more than a year now. The unemployment rate for blacks is still nearly double that for whites at 5.9%. I will try removing my photo from my Linked In profile. Maybe that will help.
26
What a nice round number.
4
Date Total Public Debt Outstanding
02/05/2020 23,246,514,802,464.92
01/20/2017 19,947,304,555,212.49
This is the legacy of the 45th president of the United States. Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow or the next day. But for the man who said he could reduce the debt in 8 years........
Well he grew it by about $1 trillion a year. What’s next?
https://treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current
14
The US Census is hiring a huge number of people right now. Are these hires part of the jobs report?
7
Cadet "Sharpie" Bone Spurs. Message: It's not the economy stupid!! It's venality, lies, insults, tweets, Dunning Kruger Syndrome, Narcissism, idiocy, Spiritual Advisor, P grabbing, eye candy syndrome, disastrous judgement -- etc. etc. etc. You are a national disaster, an international embarrassment. And, yes -- clearly demonstrated and proven - Collusion, Obstruction, Blackmail, Quid pro Quo. (Barr lied -he sold his soul). On top of all that - the ultimate sin - Commander in Cheat - you are famous for cheating at golf. Are you unique - absolutely - unmatched in the history of the human race. God is not pleased.
13
How many of those jobs were taken by people who needed an extra job to cover expenses? How many of those jobs were taken by people who were already working more than one job to make ends meet? How many of the people in homeless camps are collecting unemployment? This is a skewed picture of the economy, as we all ought to know by now. Stop by a freeway overpass and ask the people living under it how they're doing these days.
19
@dutchiris
The conditions you describe also existed under Obama, who I loved.
4
Our economy is great for the folks at the top of the food chain. Our film and media industries are in love with this. They can't stop talking about how well the rich are doing, what they eat, what they wear, who is having sex and babies with whom. Rich boy Musk's car company, whose products only the very well-off can afford to buy, is touted for being worth more on the stock market compared to car companies serving the People's needs. The People don't count here. No metric captures our experiences with trying to barely survive in an economy by and for the rich. Mr. Trump is the quintessential rich boy: no morals, no compunctions, no compassion, the large living party guy you'll obey or suffer severe consequences. This economy serves him well. The bottom 50% of us are on our own, holding 2-3 of the jobs the NYTimes touts, making $18K/year on average. We should eat some cake. I know the upper 50% think we are stupid, powerless, and don't count. We'll see.
17
We all know 45 is a liar, cheat and thief. He has successfully toppled democracy and lead a GOP Senate to stand against what was left of American laws of the Constitution. A labored population, complacent from long working hours, long commutes and interested only in ability to purchase goods, doesn’t care. Interest rates were falsely dropped in a good economy three times last year alone, to keep the economy falsely booming until the election.
16
That's huge! Up from the "forecast" 165K
Must be Trump lucked out by inheriting the on fire Obama economy.
The loony left doesn't have a clue.
The FIRST president in modern history to elevate RESULTS over swamp PROCESS beaurocrisy (never ACTUALLY getting anything done).
I stand behind you Mr. President!
7
I have no idea what I just read. Is this a code of some sort that I have to decrypt?
10
If Trump keep going like this, his jobs numbers might catch up to Obama’s. Look it up.
1
Make America Great!
5
The triggered democrats just don't get it. This is all that matters. The economy. Trump didn't screw it up is enough reason to vote for him. Yes, wages aren't growing mostly due to crazy high healthcare cost that these employers are paying. If you want a job you can get one. Yes you can. Stop the Obama nonsense 8 million people out of work, and he pumped in over 6 Trillion with QE2 essentially printing money to help the economy. Voters vote their pocketbook and your getting 4 more years of Trump. Get off of social media and you'll be just fine.
7
Wonder why we were bleeding almost a million jobs a month in 08 and 09?? Thanks Republicans and thanks Obama for stemming the ride and turning it around. Recovery would have been even better if it wasn’t for the do nothing obstructionists in Congress. And speaking of pumping money....how about all the money “pumped” to the wealthy with the radical tax cuts that have led to record deficits. Get over it!
1
@C The cult of Trump just don't get it. The data or facts show Obama created more jobs per month, the stock market increase more as a percent and the deficit he inherited was cut in half. The deficit has double under Trump, without that GDP growth would be under 2%.
To quote Jesus, Man does not live by bread alone, Trump is the most divisive corrupt President in history.
2
With repeated interest rate cuts, more than $2T in stimulus, and running an annual deficit in excess of $2T (subtract the incoming taxes from tariffs), Trump has achieved a growth rate 60% of Obama's.
Winning...
15
This is truly incredible! The Trumpian economy races onward. Those who claim this is somehow a continuation of Obama or even a slowdown of jobs creation willfully ignore the fact that we are and have been now at full employment for years! If we created no net jobs and lost no net jobs for the next several years that would be fantastic. Stupendous is the reality now!
9
I’m a registered nurse making at least once would be called a middle class wage, and can’t afford to live near my job in Seattle anymore. So much for full employment.
19
@Bob Your comment would seem to indicate that you either didn't read the article or you are purposely ignoring the fact that the statistics show a very mixed picture, i.e., the continuing loss of jobs and recession in manufacturing. But as recent events have proved, the cult of Trump ignores facts that they don't like.
8
It doesn't matter how many jobs were added if they still don't pay well and aren't full time. Endless part time jobs still won't help people live.
17
How many jobs were full time and how many of the part time jobs were actually one person holding two or more positions? The government statistics are very misleading.
9
A lot of posters are stating that Trump doesn't deserve any credit for the robust economy because it was Obama's policies that created the present situation.
Others - who are also critical of Trump - are saying that the present economy IS mainly because of Trump's massive tax cuts and profligate spending. i.e., The economy would have shown less growth without these stimuli.
So if the strong economy is the result of the latter, then the country's present economy was less the result of Obama's policies and more because of Trump's.
5
So tell me again why there are 1.5 million homeless children in this country if the economy is so great? If 1 million "jobs" are created that pay $10 an hour, don't have benefit, and have no guarantee of a 40 hour week or a position the next day (remember, federal jobs data doesn't distinguish between a temp and a permanent job), are we really doing that well? I would suggest that everyone read Andrew Yang's "The War On Normal People" to be enlightened.
13
@notrace There were always poor people. The point isn't if poor people still exist. The measurement of success is if there's less poor people now than before and if there's more wealth in general.
6
As I stated above, I’m an RN, not poor, and could not afford to live anywhere remotely close to my job. Moved to Mexico, and live better on SS than I did on eighty grand a year in Washington. Crazy, and unsustainable.
7
@Hunt
They're are plenty of places in the US that are cheap.
During Obama’s last three years, the economy added on average 224,000 jobs a month. During this regime’s first three years the rate has been at 190,000 per month. So for one month the number has risen to the average Obama had set?! And like many others have commented, are these jobs quality jobs?? Why does it seem that so many supposedly level headed, intelligent, independent people keep saying things about a booming economy?? And if you add GDP into the comparison, it’s roughly equal also. I just don’t get it! Can’t the media just show the comparison between the two and let people figure out the “blowhard in chief” is doing about the only thing he ever does well....lying and bragging about lies!!!
12
Thank you. I don’t know what kind of cool-aid they have been drinking but I my experience has been to loose our deductibles, including our deductions for helping the poor and hungry, and paying thousands In extra federal taxes since 45’s big tax break for billionaire’s, mostly himself, that ran up our deficit and did nothing for the The middle class.
9
@Ed Smith
Thanks, Ed. I just re-ran the numbers with the latest BLS revisions. The 36 month averages are:
Obama: 224,417
Trump: 182,194
Thought you might be interested.
2
Just about the only thing I agreed with Trump on, prior to him being elected as president, was his claim that economic numbers, particularly the highly visible ones like inflation and unemployment, had been politicized. There is a lot of evidence for that, even though some of it is a little technical and requires some understanding of basic statistics. But, bottom line, both unemployment and inflation are understated and have been since the 1990s.
Now, of course, Trump uses this flawed data to tout his achievements. How can an average person tell whether the economy is as great as advertised? Just look around, 25% of the population is $400 away from financial ruin, many need 2 jobs to pay their bills because of low wages, income/wealth inequality is the highest it's been in modern times, and there is widespread incidence of mental health disease and drug dependency. Are these signs of a healthy economy?
Yes, the stock market has exploded upwards, but most people don't own stocks. The advance in stock prices reflects a very accommodating monetary policy and huge tax cuts for corporations and affluent folks.
Given the propensity of this demagogic president to mislead and cheat, I would not be surprised to see strong data on the economy going into the election. He'll insist on it and his people will oblige, no matter the reality on the ground. Mark Twain comes to mind. He once said "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics ". Be warned.
24
No, our economy is not the “best it has ever been."
Despite Trump’s false claims about his economic “accomplishments” during Tuesday’s State of the Union, numbers don’t lie—and the jobs numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today fact-check Trump’s lies.
Trump is obsessed with comparing his economic record to President Obama’s. Well, here’s a comparison for him: Monthly job growth under Trump is down 15% from Obama-era levels.
Also, Trump has broken his promises to bring back manufacturing jobs. He boasted in the State of the Union about the “thousands upon thousands of plants and factories being planned or built” under his administration. Really? Instead, the manufacturing sector is in recession, and plants are closing across our nation.
This is the story of the Trump administration’s economy: the rich and powerful benefit, and working Americans get left behind.
No wonder Speaker Nancy Pelosi tore up Trump's State of the Union Address. It was a pack of lies and misstatements.
15
Should we still believe these numbers? Has the Trump corruption reached into the BLS yet? We all know that is just a matter of time before the BLS, like the rest of the executive branch, is corrupted and providing numbers that help re-elect Trump. Are we there yet?
7
How can anyone with half a brain look at the chart of adjusted job growth since 2016 and NOT see that we are on a downward slope? You don't even need to read the article in order to understand that!
10
Very disingenuous reporting. The uptick in the unemployment rate was due to more people actually looking for a job, participating in the labor force. In other words, unemployed people looking work. Why didn't the reporter explain that? Does he even now? Or does he chose not to report? No wonder they call it fake news!
1
@Southern Boy My version of the article says: "The unemployment rate ticked up in January to 3.6 percent, but the rise doesn’t suggest any trouble in the job market. In fact, the opposite: The rate increased because more people joined the labor force to look for work." Either you have a different version or you should read more carefully before criticizing others.
7
When he announced his candidacy, no one would believe me, but I just had a feeling he was going to make a great President. Some say the greatest ever.
Make america cheesier.
3
Repeat after me... $1 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see.... growth is on the credit card!
9
@Arthur Retired banker. Have known about Cadet "Sharpie" Bone Spurs for years. Reviled by most bankers except the fools at Deutche Bank (due diligence severely lacking). He has lived up to his reputation. Time to get him out of Washington D.C. Register, do your homework, contribute, VOTE!! Vladimir won in 2016. America lost. Take our country back, Make America Great Again. The tax man cometh Donnie - check out Al Capone. Enjoy Alcatraz.
1
I was reading middle family earnings are higher than ever. Based on what? One or two wage earner, corrected for inflation? Too many numbers are quoted without the facts behind them. I am looking at you NYT and WaPo and other news services.
4
These kind of jobs you will be paying for the clean up because these jobs centered around everything but responsible manufacturing and consumer practices will cost a fortune in medical response and compensations as well as re-structuring the Pentagon has already begun.
I mean, if you like drinking contaminated water and eating mass produced processed foods you'll probably never see the day we begin the clean up, but your kids will.
How one can play the game with numbers and also as Mr. Trump loves to shout this is rigged or that is rigged or there is a deep conspiracy. Well want one little notice even in this article how the job numbers were cooked from the tax cut time March 2018 to March 2019 by 514,000 jobs. How will these great numbers for the past year look when the real job numbers come in. Give me a break Boeing suppliers are cutting thousands of jobs, but lets see Boeing that sold a whole four planes in December and lost $18 billion shares are up. Listen to the brokers who have millions of shares pumping up the stock. Read up on pump and dump the mob knows how it works. Lets see 30,000 less working in coal mines, Macy's, Caterpillar sales down and this year with China bleak, wage growth stalled and on and on, but the economy is fantastic. Notice they never mention the type of jobs created and the thousands laid off from Boeing subcontractors pay big wages and then that since no one knows if the Max will ever fly spin down into the grocery stores, coffee shops etc. Don't worry even if the Max never flies the Boeing shares will fly higher and higher. Wall Street is a Ponzi scam and they now keep interest rates low and one is forced into the market whether one wants to or not. Lets see Uber lost almost two billion, but good times ahead. Interesting an the Republicans never mention the largest deficit and debt in US history. Hey, time for another tax cut don't worry be happy. Jim Trautman
4
1) Of the total 225,000 new jobs in January, 19,000 were government jobs and not private sector jobs. So, 8.4% of these new jobs were not private sector jobs.
2) With an increase in, year-over-year nominal wages of +3.1% for the year ending in January, 2020, combined with an increase in the CPI of +2.3%, again, year-over-year, then real wages actually increased less than 1%.
[((1.031/1.023) - 1.0) x 100 = +0.8%].
3) Recall that for the calendar year 2019, the Dow returned 22.3%, the S&P 500 returned 28.9%, and NASDAQ returned about 35.2%. So, the Dow returned 27.9 times what wages did, or 2,790% of wages. The S&P 500 returned 36.1 times the percentage gain in wages, or 3,610%. And, the NASDAQ gained 44.0 times the gain in wages, or 4,400% of this wage gain. For the Dow compared to wages: [(0.223/0.008) = 27.9; and 27.9 x 100 = 2,790%].
4) I think this is an accurate, although very brief summary, of a few of the points Dr. Thomas Piketty made in his book, "Capital in The Twenty-First Century," which was published in 2012, and discussed growing inequities in the US income and wealth distributions. The problems seem to have worsened over the years.
[02/07/2020 F 12:50 pm Greenville NC]
4
@John Joseph Laffiteau MS in Econ
In calculating the ROIs from the stock indexes, they too should be adjusted for the 2.3% increase in the CPI. So, for the Dow: [((1.223/1.023) -1) x 100 = 19.6%]; and, [0.196/0.008) = 24.5 times the wage increase]; or 2,450% of the wage gain. A small change from above, but the gist of the examples are accurate.
JJL 02/07/2020 F 1:15 pm Greenville NC]
1
So jobs rose by 225,000. That's great, but It would be interesting to know what, exactly, those jobs are and what the pay is. Are the employees making a living wage or do they need to have more than one job to make ends meet?
Economists say "they are not sure what is behind the recent cooling in wage growth, or whether it will continue.
Let's face it. Any raise in salaries means less money for the employer. They want their bottom line to keep growing and if that means less money for the workers, TS. They can get another job.
5
The local McDonald's has a big sign advertising jobs for $15-17/hour. Great salary...if you don't have to live on it.
I know quite a few people -- friends, family, neighbors -- looking for work right now, ranging from brand new college grads to experienced professionals with advanced (MD, JD, MBA) degrees. The jobs aren't there, and many have been searching for months.
And apart from our president's cronies, who has job security?
10
@Zamiatin The cronies are constantly falling off the merry go round. Future prospects for them - dismal. Guilt by association.
I would really like to see more research done on how many of these wonderful jobs pay minimum wage and how many are part-time not full time and how many Americans are forced to work at 2 jobs in order to support their families......I think if this research were done, the picture might not be quite so pretty, but you can't expect government workers in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (indirectly on Trump's payroll) to do this research for you--and it is only slightly less likely that the economists who work for the country's big banks and securities firms will do it either....
3
Economics is hard to understand. With
nearly 2% growth the economy is
adding jobs at a fast pace. In India
the economic growth is reported
at 5% and the unemployment is
rising, It is mind stretching to
make co-relation between
growth and jobs creation.
2
@s.khan, don't believe the numbers coming out of the Trump administration - they are being cooked. What they don't tell you about - ever - are the downward adjustments that are made a month or two after the initial inflated job growth reports come out. An economy allegedly growing at 2% a year isn't any prize to write home about to mom, either.
8
These glowing reports on the economy by The Times remind me of the ancient parable of three blind men describing an elephant. The first, feeling its tail, says it’s like a rope; the second, feeling it’s trunk, says it’s like a thick snake; the third, feeling it’s tusk, says it’s like a sharp spear.
We all see what we want to see, and believe what we want to believe. That is the message of the parable.
It takes a truly open mind to comprehend the complexity of the economy, with some people doing well, often very well, and others poorly, often very poorly.
For politicians, this lesson is important. Their credibility with the voters depends on their seeing and acknowledging such complexity, and in devising solutions that work for everyone.
To the extent that Democrats insist on only one view of economy, the abysmal view, they will lose the swing voters in the swing states who will decide the 2020 election.
4
@Ron Cohen, all I can say is come to Milwaukee and you'll see the true state of the alleged "growth" economy. Adding 300,000 jobs that pay on average $10 an hour and provide little to no benefits to the employee does not a good economy make!
17
@Jan N
I don’t disagree with you, but your reply has little or nothing to do with my comment.
In fact, your reply illustrates my comment. You read it and saw what you wanted to see, and believed what you wanted to believe.
4
@Ron Cohen It's not about the economy. It's about honesty, integrity, venality and more. Character counts!!
By the column's own evidence, this is not a "strong" economy. Industrial output dropped 1% in December, the 4th consecutive monthly drop. The increase in workers wages needs a little more analysis. State minimum wage laws passed over vociferous objections by Republicans are mainly responsible for the small bump seen in the lowest paid workers paychecks. And the bifurcated economy continues to reward already well paid employees far more than middle and lower paid employees. Consumer debt (not mentioned at all) continues to soar, and is already driving auto repossessions through non-payment through the roof. About the only group who can really sing good times are here are the Wall Street traders making mountains of money through a volatile market.
10
how long can this economy and job growth continue, well here is one view, the United States is a country with a variant group of population, when looking at statistics it would be nice to know how many of these jobs occurred due to retirement, due to relocation, how many of these jobs are sustainable, how many are good-paying jobs, how many are held by student workers, therefore, sooner or later jobs that are created due to retirement may soon decrease as the majority of these jobs are filled, second, it would be nice if the job growth was done by state, eg. you may have a larger increase say in New York due to wages and business growth and you may see in farmlands due to bankruptcies a decrease as well as in areas that deal in delivering of Energy eg. coal, gas, etc., this should tell how, in the long run, jobs and economic growth will occur. Also, a factor in decline are companies that have investors, quarterly gains will determine the addition of jobs, eg: if by chance a company with investors find themselves with lower profits during two consecutive quarters you will find uncertainty and often job loss as layoffs and downsizing occur, so the thought that Trump is the major reason for the job steadiness is false, the same as the thought that more home pay is a result of Trump, economic growth and stability happen thru good management, strategy and development period Presidents and Prime Ministers love to take credit for what is usually done by the Private Sectors
4
No wonder the approval rating of the president is 49% probably enough to win the electoral college but also probably win the popular vote. Soon a fear factor will set in. Does anyone in their right mind think that things will be better if Bernie or Butti or even Bloom becomes the 46th president. Personally I would be petrified that the job growth will not be as strong if any of these wanna be presidents really becomes our next president. If anyone disagrees give me a reason to think differently.
12
@Girish Kotwal. don't hold your breath that it will happen the way you think. If Trump wins, it will be because he cheated - again.
2
@Girish Kotwal: You are exchanging truth and integrity for money and getting very little money. Sure there are more jobs but wages are not keeping up with the cost of living unless you are already wealthy. It is like the unemployment figures. the only people in the US who are designated as unemployed are those getting unemployment benefits. When their benefits run out and still have no job, they are no longer counted as unemployed.
7
@Girish Kotwal
The President’s approval rating hit 49% once in January, and apparently that number will be cited in perpetuity as proof of something. Right now, on Five Thirty Eight, his aggregate approval numbers are 43.4%, pretty much right where he always is.
2
I have to wonder if those “flexible hours” really mean part time employment or temporary employment
If so, I would not think that is a sign of a strong economy.
A real strong economy is reflected by full time, good paying jobs with good benefits, not a surging stock market with lots of people working more than one job to barely make ends meet
Let’s call a spade a spade.
11
Is there a metric for The Race to the Bottom? How is wanting health care, a living wage and addressing climate change radical? Bernie2020
11
@Lilly Nope. Liberalism OK, Socialism - nope. Socialism a 3rd rail in America - always has been, always will be. Donnie loves Bernie.
This good news must be caused by what Obama did five or six years ago. Otherwise, why is the New York Times reporting on something that Trump can claim credit for?
6
@William McCain
What exactly did Obama do 5 or 6 years ago that is occurring now that he couldn’t accomplish while in office? The annual GDP, which is the best measure of economic growth, was never above 2%; during Trump’s 3 years in office it has never been below 2%.
@William McCain. take a good look at the chart of job growth since 2016. The original estimates of growth by the current Trump regime were WAY off base, and were drastically adjusted downward. The actual "growth" is shown by the ever-trending downward black line since 2016. Job growth, great economy? HOG WASH!
5
@Raul Campos, so what exactly has Trump done since 2017 as the black line indicating jobs created year over year is consistently trending pretty much downward??? As I wrote in another comment, 2% growth rate is nothing to write home about, particularly since Americans are now making any more money than they were in 2016, but are paying a lot more for goods because of the tariffs they're now paying.
4
Im sorry to tell you all the numbers are cooked as everything this president does to make himself look good. He manipulates the stockmarket everday by him saying something stupid or positive to sway as it works for him. Buy low sell high right boys. It's all a farce!!
8
Anything Trump touches should be viewed as lies. I'm sad that I cannot trust anything this WH does or says. Lame Duck WH and Senate!!
8
The article briefly mentions the real reason for the jobs increase but like all in the no higher level thinking media Ben Casselman ignores the truth. The ONLY reason for the 225,000 jobs were the 275,000 boomers that RETIRED! This has been the case even in last 2 or so years of Obama term. Its the boomer retirees being replaced by new hires. Last month less than half the retirees were replaced probably because they sat out the holidays in HR departments. Come on, someone do a real look into this. Pathetic reporting!!!!!!!
4
@JP Yup, some 10,000 boomers retire each day and have for years and will continue to retire at this rate for years to come. Thus, we see replacement numbers, not job growth!
14
@David Gould, true. The figure of about 10,000 boomers each day retiring gives us an average figure of about 300,000 boomers retiring each month. So much for Trump's vaunted "job growth!"
5
@JP Thank you for pointing out the obvious. Too bad our white shoe pundits in the business media can't seem to see it. Also not contested is the sorry state of good paying career jobs replaced by more workers chasing fewer available hours by splitting up the crumbs tossed by their employers.
5
Another triumph for the Trump economy, more people working ever in the history of the United States, and more people looking for work ever in the history of the United States. I support the President. I support Trump. I look forward to his re-election. And as he said in his historic State of the Union address, "the best is yet to come." Thank you.
7
@Southern Boy: Wait a second, if there are more people working why are there even more people looking for a job? In the real non-Trump world if there are more people worked there are less people looking for jobs.
2
@Southern Boy My brain tells me that as our population grows, our job market grows. Am I wrong? Just so you'll know, the discord in our nation is still to some extent influenced by the tears still shed by some for "The Lost Cause" = CSA.
It’s amusing seeing these writers straining for some anti Trump news to find in these great economic numbers
13
@Dish Like many others, would like to see these numbers broken out by State. Curious to see how the Southern tier of our nation is doing. I have a suspicion that the results would be revealing.
Once again, thanks President Obama.
10
@RG
I hate to tell you this but Obama is not the President now.. it’s a guy named Trump...and if you look out the window you’ll see that the recession is over! Can you believe it? People are actually working again!
2
@Raul Campos Look back 12 years. Draw an honest conclusion. Get away from FOX propaganda.
2
Thank you President Obama. Good job
10
New York Times readers find this news extremely depressing. Why? Perhaps some reflection is in order.
12
@Susan We do not find it "depressing" but rather suspect. The numbers look good (prior to the updated, revised ones) but the devil is in the details. What are these jobs and how much do they pay? Benefits? Healthcare? Does one need three of these jobs to live? What, pray tell, is wrong with asking for some clarity in context? Not all of us savor the kool-aid without the list of ingredients.
2
Hurrah, hurrah, soon many Americans will slave in the fourth job just to pay for basis necessities while the fat cats enjoy the horrors of socialism which we can safely call American jungle capitalism in full display!
PS. I am facetious!
2
@Nicholas Let's be clear - Liberalism is not Socialism. Never has been,never will be. Go on line to Churchillisms. Winston Churchill on liberalism and socialism - 5/14/1908. Winnie will set you straight.
Ah, just more good news! Things don't look so good for the Democrats. But keep spinning the Jobs Report due to the weather. Oh, and "global warming" LoL!
3
@Matt Not in any sense an intelligent post. Kind of sounds like FOX/Limbaugh and company. No, couldn't be.
It frustrates me that even the “left-wing” media such as the New York Times fail continuously to report to Americans that Canada's employment picture has been improving at almost exactly the same rate as yours, despite our “left-wing” government headed by a “socialist” Justin Trudeau. This last month, on a per capita basis, our jobs growth was precisely the same as yours.
And this despite your extortionist in chief Trump hobbling our economy with endless tariffs.
18
@Doctor A , same in Britain. The unemployment is low despite
the chaos of Brexit. Did Trudeau of Canada and Theresa May of Britain
use the same magic as Trump.?
In reality neither Trump nor Trudeau have much to do with jobs creation.
Free enterprise system in all three
countries has its own dynamic. Trump's typical day involves watching Fox tv, twitting,traveling to
deliver monologue in a dull voice that Stephen Colbert imitates well.
3
@Doctor A Thank you Doc. Think you must read "The Economist" The world would be a better place if more people did. Denigration of the New York Times a consistent mantra from the Trumputin fans. FOX addicted - not good.
I wish trumpists would learn to read a trend line or at least learn to read a bar graph, but then I wish they’d learn to read the part where manufacturing jobs dropped by 12, 000, wages continue to be largely stagnant, and 514, 000 fewer jobs were created in 2018 and 2019 than initially reported.
Above all, though, I wish they’d learn this simple sentence structure: “The ——— report looks good, but there are concerns with ————.” You know...the format adults use for telling the truth?
Instead, we get these tiresome chants.
11
@Robert If they learnt all that
they won't be Trump supporters.
Ignorance is the fertile ground
for Trump.
3
Any article reporting on job grow and a "strong economy" that doesn't analyze (and center) the question of whether those new jobs include health benefits misses the point. Healthcare costs so much in this country that, without insurance, 100 jobs won't do you much good.
4
@Meagan C.
Good point Meagan: according to the most recent BLS report (Mar. 2019) 87% of full time employees in the private sector had access to employer-sponsored health care plans and on average, the employer paid about 70% of the cost of the premium.
1
When Trump took office the economy was healthy and getting stronger by the day. So he didn’t have to do anything to have a good economy.
But he did do something . He started rolling back environmental regulations thereby lowering production costs and increasing profits. And the economy got even stronger.
But those regulations were put in place to battle against global warming and its various manifestations like extreme weather. And the sort of thing that has happened to California and Australia.
So the economy is stronger than ever. But at a cost that will be paid over and over in the decades to come.
7
I am in my mid sixties and have been through many economic cycles. That said what I have observed is a when you ignore a massive tax cut with no intention but to line the pockets of the rich and corporations and nothing for the country’s welfare, infrastructure etc, there is a mountain of debt and a recession that will claim the few programs that actually make life better for the not so well off.
It’s just the replay of these cycles that is so disturbing, and this time Trump can’t blame Obama, even though he will.
14
Why is one of the headlines "No manufacturing rebound YET." when the actual content is 'Industrial slump continues with no end in sight' ?
12
Does the NYT ever consider listing the number of JOBS LOST during the same period? Would be of value I think.
7
What all these articles neglected to mention was what kind of jobs and where. Can we have a list please? And verified.
7
@Anxious Anonymous
Months ago I did see some listing that claimed new jobs in the teaching, fast food sector which of course was to further confuse as to why two such different occupations, one rife with low pay and small hours and the other full time, benefits, would be lumped together so maybe those of us that complained then are responsible for zero info now. I've notice insightful complaints are immediately addressed by the media manipulators as to eliminate the problem.
Who calculates these numbers? And why are there such large "adjustments"? Why do we allow the Psychopath to dominate the employment news when it is really not that great?
Why aren't the headlines about the SLUMP in manufacturing jobs? Why aren't the headlines about stagnant wages for workers and skyrocketing compensation for top level executives?
Where is the statistic that measures how many jobs a person has to have to survive now vs years ago?
Does the public know that the "unemployment" numbers reflect people who are filing for unemployment benefits but ignores those who have given up?
Why aren't you doing your job NY Times? Why aren't you telling the whole horrific story?
2
@Bob Bruce Anderson The story is positive and most employers are struggling to find workers.
2
@Karl Struggling so hard to find workers that they have to offer them more wages/salaries? No. Your wrong.
1
What is the source of the “official” jobs report and how do we know that Trump’s trolls aren’t cooking the books?
1
This has been a is great, Trumps win in the senate, the fiasco in Iowa, the DNC attempting to give Bernie the shaft and now the fantastic jobs report. Liberal democrats are in a dither, negative and confused, It's enjoyable.
3
thank you NYT, where else can I get so much entertainment for $1/week.
1
“Under my watch theUS economy is better than it has ever been”! So says trump. At his inauguration he vouched for economic growth of “5% or 6%”. Now after almost a full first term into his presidency economic growth is barely 2%! ,,, far below even Carter at 3.3% let alone JFK (5.7), LBJ(5.3),Reagan(3.5),and Clinton(3.8).
"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." — George Orwell, “1984”.
15
Oh, no. This is terrible news for Democrats. How will they convince Americans to scrap this vibrant free-market economy for socialism?
4
It's based on record corporate, consumer, student, and national debt.
Coupled with an insane trade war against friend and foe alike, it is gonna implode.
The only question is when and how bad.
3
This is very good news for all the people who can now put food on the table, look at their wife in the eye and pay the bills, or even buy the kids a toy.
It is unfortunate how many people are seeing this as bad news.
The numbers are there, reported by blue and red alike, yet most people here find them fake and suspicious.
You can believe them, or you can believe Paul Krugman who has been saying for 3 years that the economy is about to die, any moment now.
Google them, look it up yourself. You can find the data above, or a writer that shares your opinions. Whomever you believe is up to you.
For those with a job, this is good news, whether you like it or not.
1
It's all numbers! These jobs are low-paying, no insurance or benefits. It's akin to ballot stuffing. i.e. I pay some person to pick up garbage off the street (for a week) -- bam! I have added a "new hire to the labor market"
Do not be fooled by this misperception. It's an end run by the Celebrity President as he tries to steal another term. They're not real jobs that put food on the table or pay for higher education. It is a sham meant to "look good".
3
I read this and fail to see anything but Wall Street propaganda.
One would hope the Times would get it together and present a real report, don't get your hopes up.
That the Times keeps pumping out these kind of stories is (to me) pretty suspicious.
When it publishes the real facts we close readers will applaud.
In the meantime we remind the Times that the stock market is not the economy.
How many jobs are short hour jobs with no benefits?
How many jobs are without benefits?
How many jobs are unsecured?
How many workers are food stamp eligible?
This list just keeps growing, I find the Times employment reporting incredibly irresponsible.
Millions of Americans struggle to keep head above water and millions are unable to do this in this economy. The precariat are growing every day.
"In sociology and economics, the precariat is a social class formed by people suffering from precarity, which is a condition of existence without predictability or security, affecting material or psychological welfare. The term is a portmanteau obtained by merging precarious with proletariat.
To report on this economy honestly the downside has to be part of the report.
2
A downward revision of 500k jobs is a serious scandal! Trump has been riding the good news every month for the last 2 years, and surprise! The good news was fake news!
6
And how many of these jobs are actually life sustaining type employment that isn't those who force someone to work 2-3 of them??? My guess is it's service jobs...you know, like fast food, hotel cleaners, and the like...
4
No wonder the Democrats are losing it. Every policy agenda they have promoted for the last 50 years has been proven wrong. The so called experts have been made to look like fools. Trump is a do'er, he gets things done. Politicians, on both sides, have made the same promises for years, with no results.
Never again will the American voter accept incompetence and corruption. Trump has changed the political landscape for years to come.
2
Those who with straight face will deny Trump credit for this great American economic success must be seething reading this article...
2
@Mikhail23: Funny, when Obama's unemployment numbers were good, the Republicans all claimed that Obama had nothing to do with it. So, why do you now give the credit to Trump?
2
The BLS is now run by William Beach, a Trump appointee. It is a unit of Trump's Labor Department. Therefore, its numbers are NOT to be trusted.
The Trump Administration LIES about EVERYTHING. Trump gets to see the numbers (and manipulate them) before they are released (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/01/us/politics/trump-jobs-twitter.html)
The NY Times and Washington Post need to find the Truth.
Trump and his Republican Congress have proven that "IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH".
2
I see two reasons for the strong economy.
First, the economy was healthy and getting stronger every month on the day that Trump was sworn in. So, right from the start he didn’t need to do much, if anything, to have good economic news.
But he did. He started rolling back regulations that interfered with industrial processes, thereby lowering production costs and increasing profits.
But those regulations were put in place to combat global warming and its various manifestations such as violent weather. And the burning of California and Australia.
So, the economy is thriving. But at a price.
1
Where are these jobs being created? There are still no jobs in areas of Missouri, Oklahoma, & Arkansas. They are not being created in rural areas of the country. I am wondering how accurate these numbers are since everyone seems to be afraid to report anything that might make trump mad.
We are living in a 1984 world & will be as long as trump & gop are in control.
5
It takes years to turn an economy in a positive direction. Way to go Trump...take credit for work done by the Obama Administration. You inherited this economic upturn.
8
In 2019, real (inflation-adjusted) wages rose 2.9%, but their buying power was reduced by 2.1% inflation.
Wages are barely keeping up with inflation so still not a living wage.
5
Jobs Jobs Jobs as per promises made and promises kept. Now there are those who are still looking for their dream jobs and hopefully they will find one in their near future. In the mean time be content that you have a job and the dignity that comes along with having a job.
3
Oh, my, yes, “be content.”
Indeed the proper slogan for a free nation.
We have GOT to get some folks a proper pair of sunglasses.
3
Interesting that the robust growth of payroll is linked to climate change aka unseasonably favorable weather.
1
@Girish Kotwal
Oh yes! Dream jobs available at Walmart, Taco Bell and Mc D’s Thanks but no thanks.
2
400,000 fewer jobs were created after revising 2018 and part of 2019. This is how there can be a disconnect between what a politician says you are experiencing and what actually is happening. Do you hear this Democrats?
4
If the Democrats had half a brain (which they don't, they only appear intellectual compared to the knuckle draggers on the GOP side), in their campaigns they would ask workers if they are better off than they were 4 years ago? Do they have less fear of getting sick and going bankrupt or not getting treated? Do they have steady employment at a living wage, or are they still struggling, needing multiple jobs to survive? Do the jobs they work have good benefits with pay, or are they gig work?
Every economic indicator shows that only the top 1% have seen a boom, yet Trump nation pretends like the 3.6% unemployment rate means something alone, or pretend that once Donny is done getting rid of all those illegals and welfare queens and the like, why, then are wages are going to go back to the 1950's; the sad truth is, though, they will still believe that in November, will still believe it 4 years from now, they don't look at facts. Among other things, that the tax cut didn't create new jobs, it created new wealth for the top .5%.
3
When Obama was in office Birther trump said he was cooking the books. Now with the Fraud university and Foundations being exposed as cooking the books makes some ponder about that projection. Pay is rising because of the Dems demand for higher min wage. Of the jobs being created how many of those are under $20 an hour. These full time? With any benefits? Hollow numbers for the forgottens.
4
It’s that time of the month again, the Friday job report , when hyperpartisans on the left and right cheer for their team.
4
As reported, the pace of hiring has slowed.
That is an onimous sign of what lies ahead.
Given trump's history of bankrupting companies (casinos no less), the future looks very dark indeed.
3
@Phil Hurwitz
Try praying for a recession. At least you'll feel like you're doing something.
1
The numbers indicate this: 57% of the jobs are low-wage, no benefits jobs. How many are part-time or temporary? The retail sector is failing as is manufacturing, down 12% this month and another 5% last month. The economy works for those whose jobs have benefits. How many health care jobs include benefits? What about all those nurse's aides, nursing home workers, and those caring for dementia and Alzheimer patients. Are they all compensated well? Why are they still applying for Medicaid and food stamps?
Meanwhile, the rich get richer.
21
Main takeaway for me: the forecasters are always wrong. Future iterations of this article should also include a graph on how the predictions and actual numbers diverged over the last 12 months. Second takeaway: I see less and less evidence that the economy isn’t working for us they way Warren and Sanders like to yell about. Really not sure why I should vote against Trump when that is in my best interest.
3
The fact that he embarrasses the nation on a daily basis with his ignorance and lies isn't reason enough to vote against him? Politicians can simply buy your vote?
1
If democrats are arguing that the economy is not working for many American families, just what do they plan to do about it? They certainly haven't had much success with making it work in recent democrat administrations. As I recall, wage growth was stagnant most of the Obama years and unemployment was high and millions were on food stamps and other forms of welfare. Sorry, but the Trump administration has changed all that.
2
@George Fisher Were you not around in 2008? You don't remember what had happened in 2008, that big recession with 800k jobs being lost MONTHLY, just before Obama became president don't you? Go look at the govt # for those 8 years to see where we started (in the black hole) and where we ended up in 2016. Go see where Obama's "bailout" to the banks & auto companies were paid back (unlike GWB's no-strings grant to the banks). Go see where during Clinton's terms, the annual budget (revenue - expenses) went from -$300B (left by Reagan) to +86B, i.e. more revenue than expenses. Go see where Obama inherited $1T deficit annual budget from the GWB years (including the perpetual war costs) & got it down to $400B annual deficit.
The actual republicans financial policies defying their "fiscal responsibility" is one reason I left the party.
What has Trump & the Rs changed? A ballooning annual deficit now approaching $1T again, ballooning the debt, in a "good" economy - exactly the time when budgets should be shored up, not ballooning. Facts are your friend - go seek them.
6
Taking a major food source from children languishing in poverty, but hey, at least we're saving money, right?
3
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
the data is indeed encouraging
the sky is not falling.
wages are rising at all income levels. Outside of the images we we in the media, the economy is actually in fine shape
Some of the comments imply that some folks are rooting for bad news. Kinda says a lot about them.
31
Trillions in debt is great news! Any screwball can ratchet up a credit card! Great news indeed
24
@Run From Nothing The cooked Numbers will be revised shortly, look for it in a tiny section headlined "Job Growth numbers" in next months opinion column.
10
@Chris “cooked numbers”? You insult every BLS and of govt employee. Yet you probably believe in and want big government, right ?
These numbers are always revised so wise economics look rolling averages, trends, and multi-year numbers.
Clearly you don’t like good news
1
I've been off the rolls for over 3 years. The economy has not improved for those of us stuck at poverty.
The good news is very few talking heads on TV seem to care about this.
5
@ABG: Good point! Officially one is no longer counted as unemployed if their unemployment benefits run out but they still don't have a job.
2
Totally fake news. Unemployment rates only show individuals who qualify for state unemployment benefits. The vast majority of people who are unemployment do not. Like contract workers, freelancers and those who benefits ran out. Unemployment is much, much lower than these numbers. How about everyone start telling the truth?
3
@Chrysse These numbers do not include those who have timed out of unemployment benefits, those who have dropped out because they see all this as hopeless, & some who have become to ill to seek employment. Unemployment is not as low as trump wants you to believe & now he wants to take away benefits for those who are struggling to find employment or are unable to work not the jobs that he says are being created. You still have to be hired after you apply. Which seldom happens.
3
@Chrysse LOL. Yes, unemployment is actually at negative six percent. All hail King Trump!
Are we at the point now where we're calling good economic numbers "fake news" because they're not sufficiently praiseful of the White House?
1
To the Trump fans the jobs increase are education and the health care sector with some construction due to nice weather. Manufacturing and retail are down. So how does Trump get credit for health care increase aside from pollution now allowed?
3
What jobs are these sectors in?
Part-time jobs at the mall? Part-time jobs in hospitality?
These aren't high-paying, benefited jobs.
Stores and companies continue to shut doors and announce massive layoffs.
Most of the unemployed aren't in the unemployment statistic because their benefits ended long ago.
5
@Gus
It's of note that while Trump is touting his economic success, Macy's is closing over 100 stores and laying off thousands.
I assume he'll blame that on Macy's breaking their ties with him.
1
This administration has a habit of issuing rosy employment figures one month then "revising" them the next. I'll wait for the next downward revision before I pop the champagne.
6
@Christy I am glad people are paying attention. Why doesn't the NY Times publish a story about how the financial sector is being manipulated to make trump look good. They are lying about all of it!!
2
@Christy
The "administration" doesn't issue the Jobs Report. It comes from the U.S. Dept. of Labor. Oh, are they Russian agents too? Lol.
@Matt: What make you think that Trump, as President of the United States, has no control over the Department of Labor's job report? He get to appoint the head of the Department if labor. I am fairly sure that when the jobs report was good under Obama, your position was that they were good, despited Obama.
1
Gosh, I’ve been out of work since December 20, 2019! But I sure am glad that the economy is doing SO WELL.
10
@Ricardo
The job market is lousy on the West Cost too.
These numbers are a farce.
Stay focused and positive and your ideal job will emerge. Go directly to websites of employers you are interested in or knock on their doors. Best of luck!
5
Wait a minute. I’m confused. I thought all the “woke” people and the booming economy was on the coasts and everywhere else was full of deplorable uninformed losers? What gives?
3
@Gus Thank you, Gus. Much appreciated!
If the average person could work one job to support themselves and pay for medical benefits, lodging and food things would be better. But, alas, that is not the case.
19
Another nail in the coffin for the remote possibility of any Democrat being elected president in November. The American people recognize a thriving economy when they see it. Numbers don't lie, despite the raving comments from Democrats, liberals and progressives here. Trumps economic record of adding jobs, reforging American industry, dramatically lowering unemployment for African-Americans and Hispanics, reducing the food stamp roles due to job gains, favorably renegotiating the extremely one sided NAFTA agreement as well as signing a very advantageous trade deal with China, will be remembered by Americans when they pull the voting lever in November. It's not rocket science, it's simple economics. Americans are better off today by far than they were the day Obama left office.
12
@paul Marginally better off with a massive debt and deficit growing exponentially. This will not end well.
10
@paul
The numbers are wrong.
Part-time, low-paying, unbenefited, temporary jobs in hospitality and retail are being added, not high-paying, well-benefited jobs with job stability.
Lots of part-time jobs under $20 an hour which is hard to survive on.
Housing, healthcare, education, utilities, gas, insurance, groceries are at an all-time high. Cost of living is rising.
The numbers released are a farce. Most of us are making far less money than we were 8 and 18 years ago.
7
@paul you mean wealthy Americans. The regular worker not much. This time period is irrational exuberance of the lower end worker and employers who have cut payroll taxes thanks to Trump's tax cuts for the rich (except NY, he hates NY of course). So where are we? oh I know, the rich get richer, the middle class is still in a slow, death spiral, our grand kids will have this huge, bigly debt that mom and dad and grannie and gramps made out like bandits in because they paid less tax. the piper will call, be sure about that. the debt will for our kids and grands into a dark future. where's the bigly trickle down?
3
But wages remain stagnant: hourly earnings aren't salaries, so the focus on hourly wages gives a skewed view of the economic fortunes of workers. And despite a modest wage increase from a year ago, these aren't family-sustaining jobs and wages that will quell anxieties about workers' futures. Trump touts employment, but he doesn't tout job stability or the growth of personal wealth. That's not what this economy is about, though it should be as the path to solving inequality. Nor does adding jobs solve health insurance problems. Overall, no one is getting ahead except the wealthy, and that's the core of the economic insecurity that tears at American society. The focus of the story is misplaced.
17
I completely agree with you!
The Trump administration actually for the first time ever in history lowered the benchmark for middle class families. In the early 2000s it was 38k, its now only 30k. So even though inflation is high and the cost of living has gone up, the government thinks we can live off less money 20 years later. It’s completely bogus facts.
4
The labor statistics need to account for (1) how many jobs pay a living wage in the relevant geographic area; (2) how many regular hours the jobs offer; (3) do the jobs offer any benefits, e.g., health insurance. In my area, southwestern Ohio, we see far too many people working two, or even three, jobs for low pay with irregular hours and no benefits. They are one medical expense or major car repair bill away from disaster. The economy simply isn’t working for many middle and lower income Americans.
10
@J. I think if you ask middle and lower income Americans you would hear otherwise.
I haven't had a raise in over three years, have upcoming medical expenses that will wipe out my savings, and I'll likely get nailed by Trump's "tax cut" when I do my taxes in April. But Wall Street is happy, so all is great, right?
30
Trump acquitted, unemployment at record lows, 225,000 added jobs, black wages finally rising, Iowa election debacle. Can it get any worse for the left? Perhaps they'll actually nominate Bernie and seal the Trump re-election.
13
@peversma Let's try this: The Republican majority of the Senate has now sanctioned (1) Presidential collusion with foreign powers to jimmy the national election to their favor, thus invalidating elections, (2) Presidential holding up foreign military support that had been already approved by Congress, and (3) Presidential immunity for Congressionally-submitted subpoenas.
If this is the kind of government you want, vote Republican!
But I sincerely ask: Is this what you want? This question should be put to every voter this fall.
13
peversma
When Obama was president, the Republican line was that presidents had nothing to do with economic recovery.
Now that Trump is riding on Obama's coattails, the Republican line is Trump has everything to do with the economy.
A bit hypocritical, don't you think.
I won't go into the incredible debt Trump incurred to merely keep pace with the Obama years.
And you do realize U.S. manufacturing is now in a recession, don't you?
80
@peversma every democrat party candidate comes out and says the economy is horrible, the middle class is suffering tremendously, etc. the amount of mental gymnastics they must be doing...
2
I wonder if this bump in the numbers is a part of a larger strategy that includes a quid quo pro from trump to corporations who benefited from the tax code to hire to fudge the real numbers. After the election there will be massive layoffs.
No trust for trump or the companies who are hiring for under 30 hours to avoid insurance for workers and who are in cahoots with trump in the fleecing of the American worker.
7
Ultimately, the entire world economy runs on plundering the biosphere, hastening anthropogenic mass extinction and climate change, and wrecking the commons.
Trump's program has been to get rid of regulations protecting the environment, citizens and consumers so corporations can do whatever they want regardless of the negative consequences to all the rest of us.
This kind of program always creates short-term job gains, as entire ecosystems are mined, logged, fracked, drilled, developed, paved, and otherwise destroyed.
The Trump boom, to the degree it exists at all, is fueled by destruction of the only living planet we have. But to the oil field worker making big bucks in the libertarian unregulated scenario Trump has created, things have never been better!
15
You go it. The democrats message is things are terrible, when for the average voter they aren’t. Their continued push for more mass immigration shows they don’t really care about the environment either.
7
@AL
things ARE terrible for the average voter.
your statement about immigration is nonsensical.
since the 1970's half of the worlds immigration came to the U.S. who do you think powered the U.S. economy? it wasn't the evangelicals.
3
@eastcoast
Can’t have it both ways. Mass immigration saved the economy which you seem to be saying, but wait!! The economy is terrible we need more immigration! No economy ever got better by importing poverty as you suggest. Plus flooding the economy as you all suggest with low wage workers doesn’t benefit workers already hear. Your thinking is why the democrats are in trouble.
2
Facile analysis. These flat numbers tell an informed citizen very little about the job market and its implication in the overall economy.
This sounded like a campaign ad for Trump.
NYT, let's see the frequency distribution of the new jobs vs wages adjusted for inflation, then another of new jobs vs general sectors of the economy (manufacturing, retail, food service, health, etc) for starters.
I'm not an economist so there must be more ways to provide some details. This goes for the GDP as well.
9
I have to wonder how many people believe the numbers reported by Trump's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There is no federal agency that has not been subjected to pressure from Trump to report information in a "different" manner than ever before.
Why would the Bureau of Labor Statistics be any different?
We might ask:
Do two or three part-time jobs -- that one person must work just to break even each month -- count as one job or three jobs?
How does one job at minimum wage with no benefits get counted?'
22
@Lilburne The Bureau of Labor Statistics is beholden to no party, nor to the president. It is an independent federal government agency that uses actual statistics provided by states, corporations and private businesses to report on the level of hiring each month. It sounds like you would prefer that the economy tank and people get fired simply in order to remove Trump from office. The American people will get a chance to vote on their choice for president in November. Based on his performance to date on improving the economy and adding millions of jobs, it appears that you will not get your way.
8
@paul
From the list of: "Independent agencies of the United States government" at Wikipedia:
At the top of the list is the CIA.
Do you really want to tell us that Trump has not meddled with the CIA and its work?
Or The United States Postal Service, which Trump has harassed to charge Amazon higher shipping rates?
It's a long list, and Trump has sought to meddle in many of the "Independent" agencies of the United States government.
4
@Paul The BLS is now run by William Beach, a Trump appointee. It is a unit of Trump's Labor Department. To claim it is Independent is to claim Trump is a Saint.
@ Lilburne I have been saying the same thing for 18 months. The Trump Administration LIES about EVERYTHING. Trump gets to see the numbers (and manipulate them) before they are released (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/01/us/politics/trump-jobs-twitter.html)
The NY Times and Washington Post need to find the Truth.
"IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH"
4
And how much did health care costs rise? I heard a news report that over 1,000,0000 lost their health care coverage. And Trump in his state of the union speech had the gall to say he was going to save those with pre-existing conditions while has taken to court ACA to dump the whole thing. Mendacity is all that comes from Trump.
10
Look at different numbers to get a clearer depiction of the American economy. How many people are working at full-time jobs and at what rate. And how does that compare to pre-recession numbers. Everyone I know l, including me, is merely hanging on, treading water at a furious speed just to keep their financial heads above water. Technology has actually made getting hired much more difficult. Thousands of people applying for jobs for which they may or not be qualified. Human resource departments don’t have the time to go through all those applications and give up. The result: Businesses day, “We can’t find good people.” So, it’s back to the old fashioned way: If you know someone at the employing company that should be a help but is no guarantee. The amount of information needed to apply is daunting and time consuming to supply. Many, like me, have simply given up. Measuring the strength of an economy far exceeds just looking at job availability. All around, businesses are closing because few have the money to buy the products being sold because even those who are working are not being paid a livable wage. Please stop giving the current administration cover by reporting on a small corner of the entire picture.
9
“The revisions showed that employers added 514,000 fewer jobs in 2018 and early 2019 than initially reported……by the end of the year, the gap between the original and revised figures had narrowed to about 400,000 jobs”
How accurate are these latest numbers? The job story would be more complete if the numbers entailed the benefits and pay associated with these jobs or even future prospects. When something sounds too good to be true…it isn’t. People are struggling just trying to make ends meet…. working multiple jobs, living paycheck to paycheck, not having enough savings in the event of an emergency, worried about their health care and entitlements, educational loans, credit cards debt , etc.; while everyday costs continue to rise. All sounds rosy with the economy if you are already well off……it maybe rosy for the CEO’s, business executives , the rich and Wall Street but not for the average American worker.
BTW…trump gloats about the economy but fails miserable to acknowledge the economy started to pick up during the Obama era.
8
@A.A.F. , the economy picked up under the Obama era, but grew more slowly than any economic recovery in history. and that despite the recovery was coming off of a historic contraction during the crisis. Those are the facts.
why did the economy perpetually grow so slow under Obama? regulatory burden and regulatory uncertainty made it impossible to hire or invest in new business.
6
@Run From Nothing Slow and steady wins the race and should be much preferable to boom and bust. There is a reason the expansion has lasted over 10 years. It was built on a solid foundation.
3
@Run From Nothing “ why did the economy perpetually grow so slow under Obama?”
It didn’t. GDP growth in Trump’s 1st three years is only slightly higher than during Obama’s last 4 years. With forecasts of below 2% growth in 2020, that won’t even be true. Not to mention that Trump has doubled Obama’s deficits with more to come.
Two things help the economy under Trump compared to Obama.
First, Congress suppressed government spending under Obama. They forced government to cut spending by 10% under what was known as the Sequester. This tended to dampen economic activity. Whereas under Trump, the GOP Senate let Trump increase spending.
Secondly, there has been an increase in big wind and fire disasters under Trump. Rebuilding after catastrophes increases economic activity. Good for jobs, but losing property, like their homes, actually makes people worse off.
8
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the job creator Obama created 11.2 million jobs for an average of 116,000 a month. Trump in 36 months has created 6,990,999 for an average of 194,194 a month. Trump took office with unemployment at 4.7% and today it is 3.6% a fifty year low. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trump's GDP has averaged 2.66% in 11 quarters. Obama's GDP averaged 1.57% starting from Jan. of 2009 through Dec. of 2016. Obama had the help of a 1 trillion dollar stimulus plan and record low interest rates and spending 10 trillion dollars. Obama's eight years wages increased $1,000 and under Trump's 34 months wages have increased $5,000. Employment Cost Index, a measure of salary and benefit costs, has registered a +3% gain for 16 straight months. Over Obama's 8 years it averaged under 2%. Consumer confidence at a 17 year high. Indisputable US Government FACTS!! Sorry Dems the county is doing so well under Trump.
11
Facts and Trump have never met. These numbers are not real. All federal agencies have been gutted and Trump cronies have been installed. There is no way to reconcile the high rate of homelessness, farm failures and the high rate of industry shutdowns under Trump with these curious numbers. Others have pointed this out in more detail.
14
It’s a bit more fair to count Obama jobs created starting a few months after he took office when the Bush Depression finally bottomed out. There were over 500k jobs lost per month at the very end of Bush’s tenure and start of Obama and it turned around bigtime once Obama was able to start actually implementing policy.
1
@Iconoclast Texan The thing is, nearly any republican who ran for the nomination in 2016 would have implemented similar policies and had similar results economically.
The difference is that they wouldn't have sunk the party.
The economy is indeed strong, unbounded by well intentioned but burdensome regulations that Obama piled on with unforeseen consequences.
Trump's speech, I have to admit, highlighted many of the positive aspects of the current economy.
sadly, Pelosi sat there teary eyed, as if the good news saddens her. It certainly dings her "sky is falling" myth and undermines her agenda. Sad that she looked like she's rooting against good news.
Bloomberg is my top choice to continue the economic expansion with a heartfelt, thoughtful approach
11
Good news, but this kind of thinking is incompatible with long term sustainability. The US population generally grows between 2-3 million per year. That means the US needs an average of ~200,000 more jobs each month, just to keep up with population growth. The way forward is with a country of falling population, not endless, unsustainable growth, in the human numbers or the economy. We will make no progress on the environment here in the US or climate change globally, if we don’t realize that endless growth of people and the economy is what got us here and can’t continue. A smaller, sustainable population and economy is where we need to be headed. If the democratic hopefuls are as sensitive about the planet and climate change as they say they are they need to step up to reality and say so.
4
Wow, can this week get any worse for the Democrats?
The Impeachment ended as predicted with a desperate Chucky Schumer now in the asterisk/footnote business largely to lick his party's own self inflicted wounds. The STOU was uplifting and well received (outside of those in the unhinged Left's bubble) by many. Nancy's classless act was largely condemned by fair minded people that saw it as more hypocrisy from the 'When they go low we go high" party.
Then the debacle in Iowa showcasing the identity politics faction driven party being unable to count their own votes while the DNC party leaders changed the rules allowing a billionaire in to the race in a direct conflict to the rules that drove Booker and Harris out of the race. A genuine endorsement of Diversity if there ever was one.
The plot against Bernie is picking up steam while the voices of those saying Bernie or bust are growing louder. Trumps approval numbers are up and now a positive jobs report and another terrorist likely killed.
For a short month, February is going to seem quite long for the Democrats
27
Check back after November.
1
@Norville T. Johnston If you gloat about a president who goes to the Congressional Prayer Breakfast and glorifies his hatred of others, then there's something really really wrong with you. I don't care how rich you or the president are, you and the president are poverty stricken in character.
2
@notrace
I'm not gloating at all. I'm an independent so I feel free to point out the failings of both major parties. I think they are both hypocritical. I just pointing how inept the Democrats are and you really do have to admit that February hasn't been kind to them so far. No need for an attack on my character. I'm quite happy with the volunteer work I do and the charities I support.
1
I'm happy for those people finding work and that so many have jobs, but boy talk about a week of winning for Trump. I'm pretty sick of it.
4
This is part of the reason the democrats may not do well next fall. It’s like listening to bill Maher call for a recession so trump will loose. Honest people will say yeah this are going well in some respects but here is what is not going well and here’s why we’re a better choice. Simply saying “we hate trump and you should vote for us and I hope you loose your job and the economy tanks to teach you a lesson” is not what the public will vote for. Stop just hating trump. Start offering a better future.
1
@orchardwriting. While President Trump isn’t my favorite human either, you would actually wish the economy was lousy and people were out of work? May it not happen to you
1
Is there a data source I can view that clarifies the type of jobs this figure represents? Thanks.
8
@YouGetTheGovernmentYouDeserve The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their report this morning. It's on their site.
@YouGetTheGovernmentYouDeserve ,
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
1
What the ' U. S. ' are you talking about?
The U.S. government didn't add any jobs.
America isn't a business and the President isn't a businessman.
America is a nation state and the President is the head of government and state.
Economics is not a science and economists aren't scientists.
There are too many variables and unknowns to craft the double-blind/ randomized controlled experimental tests that provide predictable and repeatable results that are the essence of science.
There is no more science in economics than there is in history or journalism or sociology.
Economists and politicians are akin to charlatans, fortune tellers, journalists, oracles, preachers, psychics, pundits, snake oil salesmen and soothsayers.
10
@Blackmamba , thank you for your rejection of the data.
your points are interesting; not so much in the lack of analysis but what it says about your attitude.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 225,000 in January, compared with an
average monthly gain of 175,000 in 2019. Notable job gains occurred in construction,
in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1. For information
about the annual benchmark process, see the note at the end of the news release and table A.)
In January, construction employment rose by 44,000. Most of the gain occurred in specialty
trade contractors, with increases in both the residential (+18,000) and nonresidential
(+17,000) components. Construction added an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2019.
Health care added 36,000 jobs in January, with gains in ambulatory health care services
(+23,000) and hospitals (+10,000). Health care has added 361,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
Employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 28,000 in January
Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up in January (+36,000). Over
the past 6 months, the industry has added 288,000 jobs.
Employment continued on an upward trend in professional and business services in January
(+21,000), increasing by 390,000 over the past 12 months.
In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose
5
@Blackmamba A governments role is to allow the private sector to operate in an environment that permits growth without exploiting (which is a debatable point) workers and to operate those activities that the private sector cannot such as national defense which I hate to say, includes the TSA. When government acts like the private sector, you end up with the NYC MTA. This administration has created a favorable business environment. The expansion has lasted longer than anyone thought likely and while every job may not be desirable, going to work every day is better than sitting around doing nothing.
5
Government jobs should be added only as necessary as they must be funded by the rest of us thru higher taxes. The government needs to protect the country, the environment and the rest of the productive parts of the economy thru government workers, but that’s it. We aren’t doing this but that’s another story.
1
"A major annual revision showed that 2018 and early 2019 produced more than half a million fewer jobs than previously reported."
Hmmmm!
12
More evidence that Wall Street cares nothing about Main Street.
3
Under this corrupt administration, how can we believe these or any other numbers?
12
The graphic illustrations show much of the true picture which is that these jobs are not a net positive effect of the health of the working people. Clearly, wages are not going up over time. And despite the introduction of new job-seekers…i.e. people looking for work, usually lower paying low level jobs to replace jobs lost or as a third part-time work…who are not just people changing jobs, but mostly workers who do not get a better job.
When workers are competing for a job, only unions, historically, have given new employees a chance at better wages to keep up with costs of living, but with job security and full-time jobs with benefits.
Competition in the workplace only guarantees a lower or stagnant wage for more work.
3
How many of these jobs are full-time salaried at a living wage, with benefits?
Try living on $13 an hour in any mid-sized American city and see how you like it.
12
As others have pointed out, the economy does seem to be riding high right now. So, why are wages not increasing? Why are we not paying down the deficit? Why are we not investing in infrastructure? If not now, when?
26
Not doubt the economy is strong and some credit is due to the Federal Reserve oversight. Let's not forget Powell often mentioning monetary policy should benefit ALL Americans. Dont forget, we all would be living large if our credit cards were maxed out and lenders continued funding this lifestyle. Reducing commercial regulations, particularly environmental, will also come back to bite us when we either sink under a tidal wave of debt or a tsunami of melting polar ice.
1
Just how robust is our current economy? Since 1/20/2017 DJIA +48% for Trump. Clinton +70%, Obama +59%.
4
@Pauljk are you saying it took 3 years under trump to get +48% and 8 years for Obama to get +59%?
1
@loma NO! These are all apples to apples, from Inauguration Day to Feb 6 close, 3 years later for all 3 Presidents.
1
So, either the economy is not good or it is due to Obama.
Which political spin is it?
13
The economy was on a balanced track under Obama. But the steroid injection tax break by Don Jon was a temporary boost and we are in a fragile place now with all the debt.
1
225,000 jobs at McDonald's while Trump and his friends collect the big profits.
12
@Kajsa
You do know that fast foods jobs are a net negative ...
Same Song and Dance.
Trump PR-as Trump is-
Not Precise
No Substantial Facts
No Reliable Data Analysis
5
Need to keep an eye on the employment rate and workforce participation. There is a large reservoir of unemployed people that are not part of the stats. Trump called that out in 2015, even though Democratic Economists were saying the US was a full employment. Now that he is in power - he is OK with the rosy (and fake) numbers.
I notice during the Bush Jr era - the US unemployment rate was lower the Canada's, but Canada had a higher participation, especially when you consider the US has a larger military and prison population. The numbers are messaged to prop up the people in power.
3
@Tom Correct.
It really is basic math... with a lower denominator (Labor Force) and the same nominator (jobs) you will have a higher % of employment rate or as it in commonly referred to lower unemployment.
1
How about all the jobs that will be lost when Macy's closes approximately 228 stores throughout the country. Another chain restaurant, Ruby Tuesday is closing. How do numbers like that figure into those calculations.
6
This jobs' report means nothing to me. Where and what are these jobs? What are the wages? How many are second jobs taken to make ends meet? This data is nothing but graphs on a scale. It is not made of flesh and blood.
12
Wow if the Democrats had these numbers the Fed would raise rates at least three times. Now they are simply thought of us as obedient to Trump. At this time raising rates should be taken out of the hands of the Federal Reserve. Close to incompetent. If Bernie wins the Fed will change course and raise rates fast. The fraud continues.
3
Pretty sad, that many commentators are unhappy with a good economy under Trump. They hate Trump more then than they love the AMERICAN people.
7
A downward revision of 500k jobs over the last two years is nothing to be happy about and a reminder to be highly skeptical of the monthly figures, which under Trump have been continuously revised downward after the fact.
19
@Mike Because he didnt do anything to create these jobs except raising the national debt to lower taxes for companies. But who will pay those debts back?
8
@Mike If you could see past one or two years you would realize there are implications to unhinged growth. Trump took the easy route - debt. I really do hope there is not a down side but with a President who obviously does not care about the long term (see environmental policies) I do not expect this tax cut was done with much reservations.
1
January wage growth at the bottom can almost certainly be attributed to minimum wage increases mandated by state laws that kicked in with the new year. The reason wages at the bottom rose while those in the middle did not is that employers had no choice in the matter!
5
@Andy
some truth to that
also some truth that a few people lost their jobs due to that sane pay hike ...
Never in my life have I wanted an economic downturn, but I do now. Assuming these numbers remain the same, Trump is going to be reelected.
2
@Kristin
You must be a very angry deeply frustrated and unpleasant person to be around if Trump keeps winning.
3
I'm honestly confused.
With the retail sector Like Macy's closing hundreds of stores, and hearing that GM closes manufacturing along with coal mines, and steel mills.
Where are these jobs coming from? I don't honestly know.
I'm sure I have no reason to doubt the honesty of the government agencies these days, but is this really true and are there other ways to verify where these people are being hired and what for?
17
@Travis ` the largest job increase are coming from 1. Education and health services 2. Construction 3. Leisure and hospitality 4. Transportation and warehousing. that's where they're coming from.
News of job tallies, Wall Street wins, economic strength make the GOP gloat. The falling birth rate in the US tells another story: Few want to birth a child in these days of the cult of Trump. This is extremely worrisome for any thinking adult, but unspoken by the GOP.
5
Actually a lower birth rate is among the best news we can hear. Unless you think climate change is a hoax and the environment is some abstract concept. AFA the economy goes its good for that as well. Fewer workers means higher wages and low unemployment. It’s called supply and demand. The way forward is not the endless Ponzi scheme of endless population growth on a finite continent. That’s what has brought the planet to the brink of environmental destruction. The most desirable places on earth are western democracies with mature populations that are naturally falling. Where are most of the immigrants coming from? Places with booming unsustainable population growth. This isn’t rocket science, although it is not PC.
2
All the indicators are excellent, including wage inflation.
The only downside is that the growth is partially borrowed, i.e. based on demand created by $1 trillion deficits. We're burning some of the economic fuel of future presidents, who might need it more when the world economy is bad.
5
@Elizabeth On point... this mess will not be Trump's to clean so he obviously does not care. Why else would he go for the "easy" option. Being a leader takes thinking outside the box, thinking about those that will come later but that is what we lack today. Both our leaders and society have tunnel vision combined with a very bad case of instant gratification and you have people hailing Turmp as as genius... when all he did was prop the market when it was going through its normal and healthy cycle.
That being said these numbers show clearly how wages have been lagging this will ultimately catch up and when the American people stop spending we will have a heavily overvalued market that will crash harder than it would have otherwise. "The bigger they are the harder they fall."
But like I said it does not matter be cause it won't be his mess to clean.
1
Deficits are probably warranted when things are tough and the country needs a boost, say when Obama took over the mess W had left. With things going better, like now, trump should raise taxes to start to pay down the debt, just like a family should save more when they start getting ahead, not just party harder. The middle and working class will spend much of the extra money to get by, so the fat cats should be taxed more. Sadly, this being an election year, the party in charge will just deficit spend more to juice the economy.
2
so many negative comments about good economic news. everyone so quick to dispute the numbers. looking forward to what bernie, joe and pete have to say on this.. rest assured they will tell you how bad this is... having the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years is bad. once classy nancy will tear this report up.
16
I guess you don’t count Elizabeth Warren because she is a woman?
@loma
" looking forward to what bernie, joe and pete have to say on this.. rest assured they will tell you how bad this is."
What else do they have to run on? Trump looks like a Genius compared to Schiff,Nadler,Nancy,The Squad and Chuck.
2
Anybody who’s objective about the longer-term economic trends knows (and the graphs all show) that recent data are completely consistent with the expansion that started with Obama.
The most amazing thing, though, is how little we got for a $1.5 Trillion tax cut—no surprise, since almost all the benefits went to the 1%, corporations, and the stock market (stock buy-backs). Along with climate-change denial you can add “Deficit Denial” to the consistent short-sightedness of Republicans in general and Trump’s base in particular.
Don’t these people have kids and grandkids, too? What kind of a legacy (and scorched-earth environment) are they leaving them? “Let THEM pay the bill” is hardly comforting to the younger generations!
49
@David Walker yes, I’m looking forward to plans by the Democratic candidates to reduce our budget deficit and national debt. We can’t continue on this path.
1
I took ten years off to care for sick parents and now I cannot re enter the workforce. No one will hire.me. I certainly am not counted among the unemployed, nor are others my age who have given up looking for work. Nobody wants to hire older folks. I n the meantime, retail stores that do hire older workers, are closing. We need to find a new formula that realistically reflects the state of employment in this country. How about full time/part time or underemployed/long term unemployed.
34
@kr That's the U6 employment figure which considers the underemployed. It's about double the U1 figure that is cited in this article.
I wonder if these statistics are "on the level", not that I would ever suggest that the Administration would benefit from Fake Figures. I'm a boomer; I'll be 73 in May. There's a lot of us about and many retiring now and I wonder how that huge slice of the workplace effects these numbers? Are all the boomers gone and their jobs filled? How does it work? Are there opportunities to make Orange the new Bogus?
6
@MacIver I, too, am 73. Let me tell you what to worry about: Social Security and Medicare cuts that the GOP will campaign on as Trump has already thrown out the idea. On top of the 2017 tax cut Paul Ryan birthed, our once Great Society will be nothing but GOP detritus
4
The two most common complaints among the uniformly negative responses by commentators here are "why is homelessness up" and "why is there no wage growth". The answers are quite publicly available:
Homelessness is down in every state but CA
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/794687084/california-governor-pushes-1-4-billion-plan-to-tackle-homelessness
There is wage growth and it exceeds expectations:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/us-nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html
Maybe people wouldn't be so negative if they actually knew the facts.
5
@Mike James Wage growth paints a rosier picture than what is reality. If a 10 dollar an hour worker gets a dollar raise. he now makes 11 an hour. He has a 10% pay raise. He still aint makin jack and he has no health care and no pension and he is probably working two jobs to clear 40 hours. Now that he has a 40 dollar a week raise, he finds out his rent is going up 100 dollars a month and his grocery bill is going up and he does not have time for much except working and hours spent travelling back and forth via public transportation.
A deep dive into homelessness will show that many homeless in CA are from other states, decreasing homeless there.
7
@Mike James
Wage growth is just 1% above inflation. Much of that is contributed by states-mandated minimum wage increases.
Broad unemployment rate is at 6.9% - this is the one Trump always used to say is the "real" unemployment rate.
Minority unemployment rates - Blacks, Asians, Hispanics - are all up. Trump bets on these.
44K of the 225K is construction, aided by an unseasonably mild construction-friendly winter. I'll count the minutes until he takes credit for the weather.
The CA homelessness initiative is a state based one, not a federal one, initiated by his daughter-in-law's ex, the guy Trump bashes at every available opportunity, in the state where he claims no one is doing anything about homelessness.
So yes, facts are valuable.
3
@shakree k
Hey that is great. Keep proclaiming that full employment and wage growth is not happening.
All of this is just evidence that there is literally no good news that will be accepted by the left as long as Trump is in office. It is kind of silly.
Obama took shots at Bush’s economy the entire time he was there. I never once heard Obama go after Fellow Democrats for getting rid of Glass Steagall and their insistence on trying to get Wall Street/Fannie Mae to promote subprime mortgages that was the cause of the economic hand grenade that happened during Bush’s administration.
Spare me the whole Trump is not accurate and taking credit and blaming other people for this current economy. I find it rich how so many Democrats cry foul when Trump bloviates as much as President Obama did.
11
Bush did crash the economy in the 8th year of his presidency, and Obama was blamed constantly for it. Spare me the revisionist history.
2
@jason
Obama was dissappointing . Dont be a sheep. let me say it again. Trump is not accurate and he is misleading.
1
You believe Democrat’s caused the subprime crisis? Wow hopefully you are not a historian by profession
You do try to present a balanced picture. Not far enough. (1) What has happened to the size of the active population? It has gone down while the population size went up. The greater the number of people of working age who give up looking for jobs, the lower, and better, the unemployment percentage looks. How many people have been discouraged to look for jobs because of low pay, no benefits, only part-time work on offer, and being treated like peons on the job? (2) Do you measure the strength of the economy by only one figure, the employment rate? (3) What about reporting on indebtedness of the federal government, state governments, corporations, households and individuals - the castle of cards?
5
All of this is great except for one thing.
Nobody ever talks about the deficit!
With employment about as good as it can be, with the economy doing well; when will we start to pay down the national debt???
If not now, when?
And then there is the issue of Social Security and Medicare running out of money.
Sometimes it seems as if we are full speed ahead into a potential depression.
20
Well I'm about to find out first-hand how white-hot this economy is. My wife was just laid off from her job and I'm facing the possibility of being laid off myself in the next year. We both work solid middle-class white collar jobs with skill sets that stay fairly needed. Nothing we see in our area (which is experiencing unprecedented growth) pays remotely what we make now and many of the openings are now contract labor where they used to be FT positions. I suspect this will be the first time in our careers that neither of us winds up in a better job than the ones we were in. I firmly believe these reports are smoke and mirrors. I'll be happy to report back if I'm wrong.
59
@JB JB ... I wish you the best of luck. The sad part is that you are in the part of America where the Republican politicians say that low/no taxes will lead to a great economy and tremendous job opportunities for everyone. As you are pointing out, that's not the case. The emperor has no clothes.
5
I think it would add to the context to include at least the previous 3 years of available data in the graphs that are presented.
2
All the letters seem aimed at denying Trump credit for the low employment. But anti-Trump lies will not win in November. Only the truth will. The Democrats CAN do better than Trump. But to do better they have to move away from this constant Trump-bashing.
Democrats could work on the climate, they could work on reasonable health care policies, they could work on less difference in income between rich and poor.
But Trump-bashing is merely a distraction. I fear that you will lose in November and lose big unless you return to rationality.
7
Another question I would ask is how many of these jobs are 'gig' jobs where the individual has no benefits and basically is expected to be working for themselves.
13
The tenor of the comments reflects the problem Democrats face this year. Most Americans look at the positive economic news as a good thing. The left wants to deny that there is good economic news, refuse to give any credit to anyone other than President Obama and even worse, root for bad economic news.
Being the party of negativity, regardless of the news, is not a formula for winning.
13
@Mike James Negativity worked really well for Trump.
3
Just read some comments by your president.
2
And your walls, guns, hate crimes pipelines, and 15,000 lies are positive in what way?
2
I'm not sure that this measurement is the best indicator anymore. Too many people are under-employed and can't earn a living wage with just one job. Lack of access to healthcare is costing too many Americans their life savings (personal bankruptcies are up 72% this year over last). There are also a large number of people that have given up on finding a job and therefore are no longer counted as unemployed. Wages are flat for those of us that are lucky to have a job. These issues need to be addressed.
29
It does not take a genius to cut taxes by 20% and run with it.
What does take some sort of thinking is alternative solutions... Adding 2.6 trillion in debt when wages remain the same is a recipe for disaster.
The market is already way over its head thanks to all the 'steroids' (20% tax cut + constant rate lowering by the fed) it has been pumping. This instead of perhaps letting the economy run its normal and healthy up/down cycle.
The real question is what happens when the music stops? When the market goes bust on an 'unnatural' cycle? What happens when we have to repay the debt? What happens when we have to raise taxes again? What happens when we raise minimum wage?
People like to talk about how much money they're are making... and how they're 401ks are "through the roof" but the fail to see beyond a year or two. They fail to understand those gains in the market are unrealized gains and the only winners here are those hedge fund managers with the infrastructure to make money whether the market it up or down. This is why you have hedge fund people like Bridgewater Co-Chief Investment Officer Bob Prince claiming the "boom and bust cycle is over". He does not believe this for a single second... he just want people to keep pumping money into an overvalued market. Because he will make money on the upside and trust me he will make money on the downside. Unlike most Americas.
However I guess it does not matter because it won't be Mr. Trump's problem by then.
29
Perhaps you should sell now and lock in those big gains
@Jose Ariza On tiny bright spot may be BlackRock, the largest money manager in the world, is divesting of holdings that do not promote sustainability.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/blackrock-is-overhauling-its-strategy-to-focus-on-climate-change.html. “Climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Tuesday in his annual letter to company executives. “As the largest investment firm in the world, it was very clear to me that more and more clients are looking for advice from us,” Fink said. “Probably the most important inference from my observations is I believe we are just beginning a major reallocation of capital.”
It isn't progress to have a job that doesn't pay a living wage.
Where is the job growth and what wages are paid?
If all or most gains are in the service sector, than wages for service jobs need to rise..at least as far as housing costs and food have.
40
Why haven't wages gone up? maybe it has something to do with the fact that 90% of the growth of the economic cycle has went to the top 1%? Maybe its because the separation of wealth is a bad now as it was in the roaring 20's. the world may never know...
32
@Zach Hillesland
Wages have gone up:
"Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% over a year ago to $28.44, ahead of estimates for 3% growth."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/us-nonfarm-payrolls-january-2019.html
Why do so many folks here not know about these numbers that are quite widely available?
6
@Mike James Its wrong to say no growth... what is actually correct is "slow growth" aka under what is expected given the conditions.
1
Why do so many Republicans deny climate change?
1
Manufacturing jobs are way down in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, farmers are being given subsidies due to loss of markets and profits because of tariffs, wage growth is worse than under Obama if you adjust for inflation, and the only people getting rich are stockholders and the 1%. Not to mention, and no one ever does, that the national debt has never been higher. How will Trump deal with that debt-he wants to go after Medicare and Social Security, which his base relies on. He won't tell you now that he wants to go after these programs until after he wins. Then, once he has nothing to lose, in 2021, if the GOP still has the Senate, he will rob Americans of programs they have been funding out of their own paychecks their whole working lives. He does not care about you.
114
@CJ
That's just not factually correct. Manufacturing jobs in all of those states you mention are up over the last several years. It's not a great revival to levels like the 1960s of course, but it's not "way down" either.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2019/07/10/in-trumps-first-30-months-manufacturing-up-by-314000-jobs-over-obama-what-states-are-hot/#21de3b432677
1
He is already attacking these programs as we speak!
2
@david
How about using an article from the last 6 months. Manufacturing jobs were down 12,000 last month and they’ve been down more than 4 months in a row meaning they are technically in a recession.
I have little understanding of all the factors that make up the economic big picture. However, it seems to me that the stock market resilience is due to the massive amount of money placed in the economy by the tax breaks for those who already had savings and wealth accumulation. Indicators that would normally result in adjustments or caution are overpowered by money looking for a home with a never satisfied bent towards greed. (Basic capitalism). A self fulfilling trend makes it look never ending. History has always been hard on bubbles. What could possibly go wrong?
5
Regarding the wage increases, what percentage were due to the minimum wage going up in that state. For instance, here in Arizona, on January 1, the minimum wage went up to $12 from $11.
9
Trump wants us to believe the economy is booming. Yes, my stock portfolio is doing very well (not as well as under Obama....just facts). However, Macys just announced more than 100 store closings the other day. The manufacturing sector is in recession despite Trump's constant lies. One other point, wasn't it Trump who claimed the stock market was a "bubble about to burst" when he was a candidate 4 years ago and did his best to undermine any of Obama's success? Now, even with the same growth rate, Trump lies to the country stating it is the greatest economy of all time when it is not even close.
55
Looks great—until one looks at the whole report. Non-farm jobs decreased over the past year by 514,000. That's rather grim, and much of the decrease comes in the manufacturing and retail sectors. Not such a great report, after all.
36
@Wiltontraveler Every silver cloud has a dark lining and trust NYT readers to find that lining. Whatever happened to being objective and fair?
Trump is rude and irrational. Also, his policies have decreased unemployment. For your own sake, see reality as it is.
1
I would really like to see a breakdown of where all these "new" jobs are, for those returning to the workforce who are accepting under-value or second/third jobs, and how our economy is doing so well. I see more homeless in the street, cost of base-groceries going up, medical costs up, fewer good jobs advertised and a hundreds of people applying for jobs that used to curry only double digit applicants.
I used to work with demographics for a major real estate investment company. The numbers themselves don't really say anything. Just like individual words can have multiple meanings depending on the context of a sentence or paragraph, the numbers can have subjective meaning depending on the context and who is structuring the "sentence".
So Mr. Trump and your cheering squad...lets see some FACTS, not manipulated numbers.
15
These results are not the work of some brilliant economic policy but a demographic shift , the simple fact is we are getting older and retiring in droves
This is consistent with similar low unemployment rates in Japan, Germany, UK , even China.
The consequences of this aging is growing budget deficits ours now over a trillion dollars as we fund Medicare and the increase in jobs in the health care sector in sharp contrast to manufacturing and retail.
Another fact is the percentage of Americans employed is well below its peak in early part of the century and even below the first half of the last decade those Obama years
We need to stop indulging in self congratulations and ask ourselves how are we going to fund our vital social programs , our growth is tepid where are we going to find the people to care for us in the future.
Immigration , not if Millar has anything to do with it
3
@Carsafrica "the simple fact is we are getting older and retiring in droves" It is not a simple fact and it is not true. I am 83 and I am still teaching. People are retiring later and not earlier.
1
@Ludwig I think that Carsafrica was referring demographically to the situation of retirement. The US is an aging society. We have a growing misbalance between the folks using Medicare for example and those who will pay for it in the future because people simply are having fewer children than they did 30 or 50 years ago.
Of course individuals defy the norm, such as yourself. But the exception proves the rule.
3
@Ludwig
Good for you.
The statistics for the record are as follows
Percentage of population over 65 in 2010 12.4 %
2020 16.3 and projected to be 20.1% in 2040
The number of people working supporting those on Social Security and Medicare in 2010 was 3.4 , 2020 2.6 and projected to be 2.1 in 2040
Is this situation sustainable , can we keep the benefits we have worked so hard for with a growth rate of around 2 percent.
I don’t know the answer, maybe we all have to work longer but then the sad fact our average life expectancy in the USA has reduced a tad.
It will be an interesting study for the NYT
Why the mystery?
Wages will not grow until -
- workers own their work.
8
How is it possible to have a record number of homeless and record-high employment? Is it possible that the employment numbers seem good because those in need have been cut off from services and are no longer reported by various agencies?
24
@JacklynD I think this has to do with the definition of Labor force. Form what I gather there seems to be a continuous shrink of what is defined as labor force. Hence less jobs to "place" in order to archive a low ("good") unemployment rate. At the same time I would assume these people are not included in the work force.
4
Sounds wonderful, of course. But one must wonder about workforce participation rates. Hard to reconcile these glowing tales with persistent reports of factory closings, farm bankruptcies and the like. And there is also the definition of a 'job' -- see too many reports of folks who need two or three to make ends wave at each other. In short, are these reports any more real than Trumpian tweets?
11
Considering the slump in blue collar employment, and the problems in the farming industry, there are questions. Trump has reportedly manipulated many agencies of the government. No one will disputes that many are puppets of his administration. Can we trust the way the employment rates are being determined. Could there be computer improprieties. I, for one, am not going to trust anything I am told unless it is reported how the facts were determined. Going into this political season I think we might listen to one thing Trump has told us- “Don’t believe what you see.” - especially if it reported by our current government.
23
@Wanda There is a private sector equivalent that also shows the same strong jobs numbers
1
@William who are they? Where can we find out how they determine their statistics? Who funds them?
1
@Wanda Remember when Trump claimed unemployment was 42%?
No, that is not a typo...
4
I am so sick of news that the economy is growing with all these $225,000 new jobs kind of statistics. Start putting these news stories in context with the salaries that go with these new jobs.
Please break down the 225,000 new jobs into salary ranges and careers. That would be the real story. I suspect a majority of these new jobs DO NOT pay wages you can actually live on or health insurance or benefits of any kind.
102
@Elizabeth Stout
The BLS does track wages as well. If you read down into the story you'll see that year-over-year wage growth was up 3.1%.
Not amazing, but generally the best it's been since the recession of 2009.
1
The truth about Trump's economy never matches the reality. His record about subpar performance with excessive pump priming.
7
Prices up 2%, wages up 3%, full employment, no signs of an inflationary spiral...sounds pretty good to me.
29
@Greg M. Yup, it always sounds good, but finding evidence--actual people with "great, new jobs"--is NOT easy.
3
@Greg M. "no signs of an inflationary spiral" you mean like a McDonalds breakfeast sandwich that I was paying $3.71 in 2019 that is now $5.82 in 2020.
You mean that "imaginary" inflationary spiral?
6
Debt up 100,000 percent! Still sound good..
1
These have to be positions where salary is not easily negotiated by the employee, e.g, temp to hire, hospitality and part-time positions. If people believe that the economy is good and they deserve a fair shake, they would ask for more money. I doubt that the question of low wages is difficult to understand. You just do not want to.
4
@Dr. Girl I work in a small biotech company, we are hiring several new people at a very good hr/rate, the increase in hiring has been steady for a few years. We have a very good health care plan, I pay $60.00/month for excellent coverage for my wife and I. It's difficult to fill positions in a timely manor. Most people have good jobs they don't want to leave. New employees start around $65,000 , not bad at all for a young person to start a career. That's without a collage degree,
3
@Jimd That's great, Jimd, but small, high-paying biotech companies are what percent of the economy? Most of the new job growth is in low-paying fields such as restaurants, customer service, etc. I literally don't know anyone who only pays $60/month for family health coverage. You are very lucky. Most Americans are not in your situation.
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There is no denying that these are extraordinary jobs numbers, and that is great for the American people.
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@Michael If they are true. Who heads the agencies reporting and why is there a huge growth in homelessness?
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@JacklynD
Because housing prices in California have shot through the roof.
"The report noted that while homelessness declined in most states over the past year, it went in the opposite direction in California, where the homeless population jumped 16% in one year."
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/08/794687084/california-governor-pushes-1-4-billion-plan-to-tackle-homelessness
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Not extraordinary. Very close to average since 2012. Bureau of Labor Statistics posts them. Facts welcome, adjectives not so much.
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Trump is trying to take credit for others work. So who's surprised? But frankly, it's the near steady price of oil since the economy harming peak of 147 dollars per barrel back in 2008. Steady oil prices allowed the economy to grow since then. If you disagree, you don't understand the massive use of oil in the economy. I will give Trump credit for being a darn good cheerleader though, but it's still Americans hard work that enlarged the economy, not one man.
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Especially not this man, who has done little other than bluster, lie, make petty attacks, take credit for his predecessors achievements, etc.
@PATRICK, don't tell that to the Obama Fan Club that will credit him for anything positive that happens in this country regardless if he lifted a finger beyond sitting in the Oval Office as POTUS and Commander and Saint.
The Obama expansion continues, with extra vanilla tax-cut frosting for millionaires and billionaires.
It's still a daily struggle for the unrich, with relief in sight for healthcare, housing and college costs for average Americans.
At least the national debt is exploding thanks to trickle-down fraudonomics on a credit card, though - a reckless and unprecedented occurrence in an economic expansion.
I'm not impressed with the GOP's historic economic malpractice.
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@Socrates
The economy expands while the environment is ravaged and the rich continue to skim all the benefits off the top.
The federal deficit now tops $1 trillion thanks to Trump's giveaways to himself, his wealthy friends, and his GOP "warriors" in Congress, most of whom also benefited.
Economic malpractice indeed.
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I meant:
"With NO relief in sight for healthcare, housing and college costs for average Americans."
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@Socrates
Do not forget the tariffs that hurt lower income people the most. Don the Con.
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How would the Green New Deal and it’s promise of jobs work when we are close to full employment? The Green New Deal seems better suited to 1933 than 2020. The rhetoric aimed at the unemployed needs updating to offer better to those already working. What’s really encouraging about today’s number is the return of people who had left the workforce, but are now attracted back by its vibrancy and employers — hungry for workers — reaching out to the disabled, ex-convicts, the elderly and likely offering more training to inexperienced workers.
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I think it is in the quality of the green jobs. Better jobs, better pay, and the competition for those workers will help drive the economics as well.
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@Rick The threat of climate change, needing an end to fossil fuel industry and transportation, would require the the creation of jobs in alternative energy and transportation. Perhaps understanding will come when
Florida and large parts of coastal cities are under water.
The world lives in hope.
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1933 is coming. But one has to read past headlines and tweets to get a grasp on it.
If the deficit begins to cause problems and the economy faulters will Trump’s policies be blamed?
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@Just Thinkin’ No - he'll be out of office by then and the Dems will be in power and will be blamed by the so-called deficit hawks who don't care about its ballooning when a Republican is in office. Same story, over and over.
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Again, most of these jobs are fairly low-paying with very limited benefits. The wage growth is feeble, certainly when compared to the staggering increases in monthly rent payments, child care, tuition and health insurance premium increases along with added co-pays and deductibles. These have far, far outpaced any meager wage gains. However, this is the reality of our economy...hollowed out in the middle as the middle class evaporates amid banks paying 1% on their slight savings while charging 25% on their credit card balances. Such is the state of our nation.
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Keep touting this amazing economy fiction!
Wish I knew one person in my extensive and multi-state social circle who is leaping for joy over a new job with wonderful benefits and high pay and insurance.
They don’t exist. I know plenty of people still hitting the pavement and if you’re over forty forget it. Yes I do know all my friends’ kids are getting jobs that allow them to keep living at home with mom and dad whilst paying off their ridiculous school loans, and a tiny fraction that can afford basement apartment cubbies for exorbitant costs that prevent them from having much else.
Rather, All I know are extremely well-educated people holding Masters and Doctorates worried about losing Obamacare and going back to paying high premium health insurance with no pre existing conditions clauses and limited ceiling of benefits and who live month to month saddled with a never-ending increasing cost of living.
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@René Pedraza Del Prado are any of your friends accountants? I can’t seem to hire one in the DC area. Send them our way, we’ll gladly take them.
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@JTCheek I wonder what the pay is for an accountant in DC. My experience from 20 years ago was that our family of 4 found it challenging to live in DC on a ER physicians salery. The commute to work was brutal, adding 2 hours to a 12 hour shift. Saving for the kids education and retirement was impossible. So we visited all the wonderful museums as much as possible and left within a year. So while it’s wonderful you are hiring who other than a local resident can afford to take your job??
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It's time for the left to stop being the party of hate and realize that Trump and the Trump economy have been great for the United States. Time for the left to reach across the aisle.
I voted for Hilary but I give credit where credit is due.
Yes, Trump says some outrageous things. But, his policies are sound.
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@ABC123 Not an American, just an outside observer (I am also not a fan of Barrack Obama or his foreign policy in any way).
Having said that, surely this is the result of Obama's policies though, not Trump's, right? Wasn't employment steadily rising throughout Obama's two terms? The US economy has been expanding for 11 years, the longest period ever. That's not down to Trump's policies, he wasn't in power. Honest question, which policies of Trump's do you think have boosted employment? The trade war certainly didn't help.
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@ABC123
Not at all he gave tax breaks to the wealthy and we have large deficits. When he leaves office the market will crash for it is based on no checks and balances. If you still support Trump you are a member of the right wing .
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@ABC123
Yet, job growth under Trump's first 36 months as President is more than 1 million less than the last 36 months under Obama. If jobs are the measurement, please explain how this economy is booming with more than a million less jobs under Trump in the same time period despite him juicing the economy with a stimulus ($2 Trillion tax cut that was needed but added to our debt) and his pressure campaign on the Fed to cut rates?
The day will come when the bill will be due for Trump's unnecessary spending. Then what will happen?
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