Perhaps very quietly Hyundai should shift part production to a nicer place even if it has to start from zero and educate/train the workforce. Why can’t US companies compete for this business? Companies like Hyundai could make a huge PR advantage if they just put Americans to work.
8
@Eric Harold This suggestion is so completely out of touch with the cost differences in labor between the US and China markets, it's laughable. Actual question: how much money do you think a single manufacturing employee in the US is paid per hour, vs a single manufacturing employee in China?
17
This outbreak appears to be far worse than China is admitting. More and more this is looking like an engineered virus that escaped from the lab in Wuhan.
China is trying to talk down how much of a threat this virus is while acting like it is a HUGE threat. The extreme response by the government exceeds any effort we've seen in previous outbreaks.
Reports in mainstream media seem focused more on reassuring the public than reporting the severity of things and investigating the all too real possibility that this is an escaped bioweapon under development.
This could have immense repercussions for the future of the Chinese State if the people find out this was an escaped bioweapon, that government failed to respond to initial warnings by doctors and then continued to lie about what was happening.
17
@cynicalskeptic What evidence supports that it's engineered, let alone that it escaped a lab and was inflicted on China's own population? How did it escape? Please share the science that supports this. Given that the virus is already under close scrutiny by researchers and labs around the world hoping to learn more about it and create a vaccine and treatments, I would believe that any evidence of such a theory would be forthcoming.
I do not doubt that the outbreak is far worse than what is being shared, because China is trying (and failing) to pretend that they are in control, and also because their infrastructure is completely overwhelmed and unable to test the full spectrum of cases. But I certainly object to the spread of conspiracy theories where evidence is completely lacking. If I want to read that, I'll go to Twitter.
25
This is an opportunity for the Chinese people to demand reform from its government. Autocracy is archaic and inefficient.
8
Another opportunity for diplomacy lost. Trump continues to misfire.
3
I am white but speak good Mandarin and went to a the best hospital in Beijing, Union Medical College Hospital built by (gasp) a nonChinese, John D. Rockefeller. When I walked in the door there were patients sitting on the floor and roosters, dogs, and other animals in the hallway. Then a nurse said I needed to enter the foreigner side. I went out and reentered the hospital thru the foreigner side. No animals in the hallway (thank God for small favors). I went into a doctor’s office and first thing I noticed was no books or the smells of a doctor’s office(such as my dad’s). I told the doctor I had an ingrown toenail. He verbally danced about the subject of what needed to be done and he said he’d be cutting into my toe soon. No aesthetic was in sight. The dancing unnerved me. I then asked a question that infuriated him, “Have you ever done this before?” He jumped out of his chair as if his rump was on fire, pacing the floor and muttering indignations at a ‘white savage’ (me) having the gall to question him. I didn’t need to know anything more and exited with my Chinese girlfriend. I put some iodine in the nail groove daily for 2 weeks and all was fine. Harming a foreigner was he least of the Chinese doctor’s concerns; Face matters far more than integrity in China
22
@ABC Your story beggars belief; animals wandering the the halls of a Beijing hospital? A special entrance for foreigners? I have lived in Shanghai for thirteen years, and on the occasions I have had to go to the hospital, the physicians were courteous, professional, and effective. For forty years the American medical establishment told me that my Crohn’s Disease was incurable, and at best could only be “managed.” After undergoing a minor surgical procedure at a Shanghai hospital, and a monthlong regimen of Chinese medications, I haven’t had a Crohn’s attack for five years. Total cost, $800.
10
Asians need to stop eating wild animals. The virus is a result of culture and lifestyle. That needs to change.
2
Chinese from Wuhan city do not represent the entire Asian. Clearly you are not educated citizen and the type of comments create more racist environment - thanks for your thoughtful contribution.
5
Now being reported in other news outlets that Princess line cruise ship quarantined in Yokohama, Japan after 10 passengers test positive for virus (they have been removed to hospitals).
Here's what I remember from my visit to China: "They will eat anything with wings except airplanes, anything with legs except tables." I lost 30 pounds.
Every single day was an adventure there to find safe food and often I ended up in McDonald's, which I hate. No one wants to talk about the fact that you can still buy ivory or rhino tusks in Hong Kong. No one discusses the fact that endangered species are regularly traded in Beijing markets. A wander through a wet market in Shanghai, will make you cry. Animals held in cramped cages, people with dirty fingernails dealing with meat, and the fact that many Chinese find it fine to defecate in the street. Why were these things not dealt with after SARS and MERS? And further, go to any Chinatown outside of China and you see the same stuff, New York, Bangkok, Vancouver, San Francisco...why do they get a pass, when it is clear that these practices are spawning disease? 500 people dead...and yet no one wants to talk about the real infection.
4
The video is dystopian.
2
Latest coronavirus toll death toll is 490 out of 24000 infected in China.
In the US the flu season is at 8000 deaths for 2019/2020. The sky is not falling but it could if the world leaders' irrational actions turn the world economy upside down.
2
Death toll from flu every year is more deadly. I agree with you. Stop being paranoid and just keep your hands clean folks!
1
They say most of the deaths are people over age 60, as though that's old and to be expected.
1
China is still a third world country, just as India is.
Simply because an Authoritarian regime can enable a huge populous with gleaming airports and trains, make their urban homeless people disappear, steal our IP and pander to our greed; does not mean they have a clue how to handle infectious diseases.
2
A friend just came back from an Asian cruise. At her last stop in Singapore, the news there was reporting much higher numbers than are being reported in the US. Hope the global medical communities can get together to get this virus under control. In the meantime, do what our parents always taught us...wash your hands.
1
What about all of the people who are quarantined and have no one? Who will help them?
What about malicious folks who may have hidden the truth from us? (Ahem, GOP...) Who will protect us?
What about container ships with all of the imports coming to the States and elsewhere? Who will receive them?
What about the World?
1
The CDC seems exceptionally quiet regarding the risks of the Wuhan coronavirus in the US and globally. 20,000 confirmed cases and 500 deaths in 30-40 days seems extremely high given testing kit limitations.
Is the Whitehouse dictating health policy so as not pierce the record breaking stock market before the State of the Union and Impeachment vote?
What happens if this pneumonia virus becomes endemic after becoming pandemic?
3
So for the 98% that survive the virus, how long does it last and how bad are the symptoms? Can you get it a second time or do you have immunity?
4
There is nothing quite so trite and tiresome as the commenters who rush here to point out statistics about the flu and wonder aloud why everyone isn't as smart as they in getting a flu shot. We get it. Now can we discuss the coronavirus?
3
I live in Hong Kong. Our borders with China, albeit not all, are still open, meaning people form China can still enter Hong Kong, and then have access to the rest of the world.
Most countries have banned flights out of China, but not Hong Kong.
And as long as the world allows flights from Hong Kong, the virus will keep spreading.
Leaving the border to China open is strongly opposed, contested and protested by the people of Hong Kong. The rest of the world should, too.
9
So far eleven confirmed cases of the Coronavirus in the USA, but 10,000 flu virus deaths in this 2019-20 flu season. Eight children have died from flu this year here in Tennessee. Washing hands is a good idea and also cleaning door knobs, keys, etc, with alcohol. Things are getting more complicated...
3
One thing that leaves me puzzled is why the quoted death rate from multiple sources seems to hover around 2%. If we conservatively estimate about a week between a positive PCR for coronavirus and the outcome of death, then we need to base the death rate on the number of people known to be infected one week prior.
When dealing with a fast moving logarithmic progression, this makes a tremendous difference.
For example, the most recently quoted figure of 490 deaths should not be divided into the most current published figure of 24,552 confirmed cases (~2% death rate) but rather the number of confirmed cases say a week prior (7,816 on Jan 29th), or a 6.3% rate.
This significantly shifts the calculus when considering the virulence of 2019-nCoV. Paired with published estimates of R(o) in the 3-4 range, we must assume that the potential for this pandemic is far more extreme than is generally advertised.
41
Purely from the mathematical prospect.
If there is a one-week delay because of the PCR test, (actually now it has been shortened into 1 day to get the result once you are suspected and get the test done), then the actual infected number should be larger than the number of confirmed cases by the test at any time point.
Therefore, when calculating the death rate instead of using the total number of confirmed infection cases 1 week before, we should use the total number of confirmed infection cases 1 week later to be divided by the current death-case number. Or using the death number 1week earlier to divide the total confirmed case number at the present, which means the death rate would be lower than the estimate value based on the reported cases.
1
@EW The case fatality rate is calculated by the number of fatalities over a given time divided by the number of new diagnoses for the same period. The key here is the time limit applies to both the numerator and denominator. It is not applied only to the denominator. When we limit the denominator to the number of new diagnoses but not limit the numerator (cumulative deaths) with the same requirements, we will artificially inflate the case fatality rate.
In an evolving situation like this, it is difficult to calculate an actual case fatality rate. Additionally, it is even more challenging to know if the case fatality rate in China applies to the US population. To make an apple to apple comparison, we would have to apply risk adjustments, controlling for environmental and behavioral factors that would make these numbers applicable with in the US.
Given some recent articles publish in NEJM and Lancet, some risk markers for the coronavirus mortality include past and present smoking status. Given China has a more significant percentage of smokers (an estimated 68% male smokers), the case fatality rate in China is likely much higher than it would be in the US.
2
Looking at the detailed record of the first US case [NEJM, "First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States"], we see that the patient began to recover in less than two weeks, in indeed was released from hosptial jin a non-contagious state just two days ago after less than three weeks of being sick.
The flip side is that 6 days of IV drip, antibiotics, 3 days of supplemental oxygen, and an experimental anti-viral drug were given during the critical period and any or all of those may have been critical life saving treatments.
So it may be that difference between a typical flu fatality rate of 0.1% and a higher rate of 3% (0.1% - 3% being the estimated range offered in [NYT, "How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors" ], is going to depend mostly on the ability to deliver necessary treatment over the a critical week or so.
As long as the number of cases are few, this will be possible in the US. The only problem will be if patients outnumber the available treatment spots, or if panic and fear causes many to go untreated (as appears to be happening in China).
We should calculated available supplies and other resources, and plan ahead to make sure that a increase 30 times the number of cases in a usual flu year can be successfully treated. While that may seem an excessive margin, even a couple of weeks of being unable to treat all cases could result in extreme spreading, making that number a reality.
64
@Craig H. Do you think that the last victim in Hong Kong did not take an appropriate treatment of the same sort? We need more time and evidence to prove this theory.
@Craig H. This suggest that we should give help and supplies to the people in Wuhan - nuclear help. Our lives and theirs are now intertwined. Let go communist on this virus and just try to stomp it out.
@Jeff Stockwell :
probably too late for that...5 million from Wuhan are said to have left the city just prior to the quarantine.
3
It’s too bad that Xi’s government is only now realizing the threat this virus presents to CCP’s mandate to rule China —a lesson you’d thought the Communist Party of China learned during the year that SARS spread. However, recriminations aside, I do think the government of China is now doing all in its power to reverse the tide of this epidemic and cull it before it becomes a global pandemic. Xi’s Party depends on the success of the response, the Chinese people suffering are depending on a successful outcome, and the entire world is watching and preparing for a Chinese failure to contain this virus from spreading globally. Godspeed in their efforts, and hopefully when this recedes, lessons are heeded about the power of nature and man’s arrogant encroachment on domain we do not understand and exploit for our amusement, pleasure, or profit.
57
@Jeff To fix the problem all the communist party members need to be reeducated. Their corporate party need checks and balances. Right now they are operating no the profit model alone. Only went a deadly virus strikes or the air quality gets too course do they go into public action. The rest of us are at risk too. The litmus test will be what happens to the wild game markets. What does the world think now that the global economy is at risk?
2
@Jeff Stockwell :
I imagine after this is finished that the wild game markets and "warm meat" markets will start up again in China.
Bad Air all around... Mother Nature issues serious wake up call—to all of us.
4
Close our U.S border with China. Bar any incoming flights from China until this Coronavirus is under control. I do not want to see this getting more spread out in the U.S.
11
@Hendry Where _is_ the US-Chinese border? I cannot find it on any maps.
1
@Hendry Where exactly is the US border with China?
1
So Wilbur Ross was right, this will bring jobs back to America
3
How much of our packaged food - sold under well established famous US brands - comes from China?
8
Hopefully we as a people are becoming more aware that new and exotic microbes are emerging at a rapid rate. The Wuham virus is just the most recent example. However, we can not rest reassured that this will be the last one, nor do know when or where the virus will emerge. We should always be aware and careful not to demonize. For the problems faced by another today, will become a problem faced by us tomorrow.
3
It is said that WHO was informed of this new virus either on 12/31/19 or 1/1/20. Why did it cooperate with the Chinese government to hide this viral outbreak from the Chinese people and the world until 1/20/20 when it was finally revealed?
WHO repeatedly praised the Chinese government for doing a fantastic job, part of which involved putting 60 million residents of Hubei in quarantine; yet it chastised other countries from wanting to isolate potentially contagious people from their uninfected citizens.
As it is said, the virus is the enemy, not the Chinese people. So the point is to ban entry for any people who are potential carriers of the virus, Chinese people perse is not the issue.
11
For all the talk about the Coronavirus, there were over 50,000 flu related deaths in the United States last year, with 15 million infected, and we are well on the way to that number this year, that with a flu vaccine. I have never understood why, in all this time we as a nation have done so little to shorten the odds on getting sick. We fight the same fight in the same way year after year, with very little information or a national plan of action.
Some ideas
Change the way sick days are tabulated for Flu and viruses, to make sure infectious people stay home, staying home while sick with flu or other infectious diseases means you stay home with pay, and it doesn’t count to your yearly sick days ,usually a meager 5 or 10 days, and since flu season comes at the very beginning of the year people invariably come to work sick so as not to burn through every sick day.
Everything in our daily lives should be Hands free, from bathroom faucets, soap dispensers, paper towel dispensers. Doors in and out of every store should be automatic
Anti- hoarding laws should be implemented to stop incidents just like we have seen with surgeon masks as recent as this week. People panic and hoard because they worry their neighbor will hoard so they act proactively
All these and more are common sense ideas that will help lessen epidemics. It’s a lot better than what we do now- which is - every man for himself,
12
@Lonnie Anti-hoarding laws???!!! Good luck enforcing that...
When I learned that the Wuhan coronavirus was still maintaining exponential growth trends with no sign of abatement, I became alarmed. But 3% fatality rate is still pretty good odds if pandemic blockbusters are to serve as a point of comparison.
But what really scared me - and for this I am ashamed - was today's news that Hyundai has stopped production due to supply chain disruptions resulting from the Wuhan coronavirus. This is the first of many manufacturing difficulties that may kick the entire world into a forced economic slowdown as a result of China's growing health emergency.
Arguably, a recession is a more potent killer than a low-intensity pandemic. All-cause mortality rates for unemployed individuals have been reported to be 50% higher in comparison to employed individuals. For the US then, a 5% increase in the unemployment rate will lead to 240,000 recession-connected deaths per year. All this and the US population may not even suffer a single direct death from coronavirus.
A pandemic that seals up China affects the economy in similar ways to the most extreme kind of trade war one can imagine. As such, strategies like rationing, price freezing and stockpiling are forward-thinking options that may reduce significant initial economic harm. The US needs to use this event as a case study for learning how to weather extreme supply-chain disruptions without inducing total economic shock on our system.
8
This is what happens when you rely on supply chains in an autocratic communist nation. A nation that acts like it’s a first world country but in many ways is still a third world country. I have no sympathy for companies that chose to cut costs by setting up shop in China. It was always a political gamble at best and a deal with the devil at worst. Karma has a way of getting you in the end.
15
I assume that some unknown stories related to Coronavirus worldwide spread has been concealed under Xi administration...
1
The statistics given out are way off. There are probably 100,000 to 500,000 infected. China is over populated, crowded and underserved. The Chinese government is trying hard to catch up to the virus.
However under reporting infections is incomprehensible.
15
This is your Chernobyl, Mr. Xi. Don't mess it up.
27
The global economy is taking a hit from this virus. How are governments helping those who are quarantined and not able to work?
8
They telecommute and work from home for 2 weeks
I am confused about how I should feel about this. Here in SF I am told it is no big deal and the flu is more dangerous. Yet I am seeing millions of people being quarantined world wide. Which is it? Why is there such a difference in responses? Why do I feel like I am not being told the truth for the sake of economics?
77
@Vincent From my understanding, the fact that the virus could "jump" from animal source to human is worrisome. Normally, this should not happen and it should not cause human illness.
And what's even worrying is when the Coronavirus in human "jumps" to another human. This human-to-human infection makes the Coronavirus more "humanized" making it easier to be spread to human population.
Is this a big deal? Yes, little is known about Coronavirus. Comparing it to Flu should not be drawn.
13
@Vincent
You are not being told the truth. The flu is to be concerned with but this new virus is extremely dangerous .
13
Same feeling in nyc. Something is not adding up.
12
"One Wuhan resident who asked to be identified as Lao Mao, or Old Cat, told Reuters that his team of volunteers had rescued more than 1,000 pets since Jan. 25, and estimated that as many as 50,000 pets remained unattended in the city."
I've heard of people leaving cats alone with food and water, but a dog? Have dependent relatives been left as well?
I understand not allowing travel out of China, but denying their citizens a means to travel back home is cruel.
7
@Nancy D but see, they have pets over there and no, they did not all get eaten while their owners were away.
1
A severely disabled boy starved to death after his father was detained by quarantine and his also-disabled aunt was physically unable to check on him to care for him. County officials were responsible for him but did not check on him. The father hysterically sought help on social media pleasing for netizens to check on his boy, but it was too late. One case of many that you can read about on Twitter, which makes translating tweets very convenient.
It is truly heartbreaking.
I love Huang Ping lecturing the American state department for recalling personnel from the city where his own government mismanaged and obfuscated an outbreak into an epidemic.
26
The video that appeared with or adjacent to this article, showing how empty of people the region’s public spaces have become, should not have a music soundtrack.
The NYT is first and foremost a source news, not entertainment or even opinion. It’s well-known that music is an effective method of shaping human response to visual cues. That’s why it’s used in movies to great effect.
But NYT journalism is and should not be merely a form of entertainment and, thus, should not have need to use the subterfuges of the entertainment or influence industries when reporting the news.
If you include any soundtrack at all, let it be the actual, factual sounds existent at the time and in the place where your photo/video journalists shot their images. Period.
49
@Reader Absolutely correct. Let images speak for themselves. Adding music is manipulative.
13
I watched with the sound off and it was powerful.
1
There is no reliable and independent way to verify even so much as a syllable from the Chinese regime. Close the border; China cannot be trusted on anything.
26
Not many leaders or countries can be trusted
4
What I can't uderstand is why people do compare it with the flu. The contagion rate seems to be a few times higher than that of the typical flu. The number of people infected is growing every day in both ways - in additions and cumulatively. The fatality rate seems to be significantly higher than that of pneumonia. Actually, it looks more like the severe pneumonia not the flu. Right now we have two deaths outside China, which give us a fatality rate of 50% in the Philippines and about 5% in Hong Kong.
18
@Vitali It's unclear whether people are just misinformed or deliberately not trying to get people in a panic. Like you said, though, this is not the flu. The origins are from wild animals and thus our immune systems won't be able to fight it as well. Also, it may evolve much more quickly than the flu.
9
The WHO Director General said the following:
"We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit,”
In other words the reflective panic reaction is not the way to go.
9
@Ivan
Personally, I do not trust the WHO. Among other things, all they did for weeks was praise China’s government.
I will stick with common sense, & the CDC, and some trustworthy & realistic experts in the field, not the WHO, which has trade seemingly on the mind more than public health.
48
@Moosh
Actually that statement from the WHO Director General is nothing but common sense. Furthermore, the conclusion about "little public health benefit" is backed up by facts and what all scientific studies of the issue have concluded. So there would not be a single trustworthy expert who would contradict that statement.
4
As a point of info, WSJ has an article yesterday that notes that Chinese doctors have been using a combination of 2 antivirals commonly used in treating HIV to treat patients. The medication is very expensive in the US, but is widely available in Africa and other developing economies. The treatment appears to be effective, and more people are recovering.
If the virus does break out in the US where the medication is expensive, this will create a whole different type of crisis.
33
@Elizabeth
The article further states that the fatality rate for SARS is around 9.4%, but it is not easily transmitted. The new coronavirus is more easily trasmitted like the flu, but the fatality rate so far is around 2.2%, and as more people receive effective treatment, the rate will go down.
4
What is the first thing that leaders of a pyramid style organization do when things start to go wrong because something new has happened? They assert control. They have no grasp of what is wrong nor what is needed to correct it, but they need to feel in control again. That is why Xi and his colleagues are what makes this virus from a public health problem into an international crisis. They could not grasp that the problem with viruses is that being the powerful head of a big government is irrelevant. What is needed is understanding and that requires open and free communications among all who can fix it an who are affected by it. But that is something which these kinds of leaders reject, collaboration and equal access and freedom of action and of communication which they do not impede by trying to control to serve their preferences.
26
President Xi did the right thing to shutdown city of Wuhan and other affected cities. He also gave severe warning to local officials who neglected their duties and responsibilities to control virus.
This is a test of his will and power to lead China forward.
In comparison, WSJ mentioned today that US had 10,000 flu-related deaths among all ages this season. And we also had most unfortunately 68 pediatric flu-related deaths this season. Most important of all, we had 10M cases of flu overall this season. Just keep calm. We are fine.
9
@Usok
There is a vaccine for flu. Many - probably most - of the children who died this year were unvaccinated. If EVERYONE got vaccinated, the number of deaths would drop.
There is no vaccine for this Wuhan virus. There is no immunity TO this virus. That is the difference. If it really gets out, 100 million people globally could die. That's a big number. Time to panic? No. Time to take it seriously? Yes.
91
@Usok So President Xi is doing the right and proper thing when he quarantines 45 million people (more people than California) and virtually shuts down the whole country but here in American we should just disregard this and worry about the flu? They also have the flu in China and if the Wuhan virus is no worse than the flu than why are they treating it like a national emergency. You can't have it both ways.
40
@ Lee It's common knowledge among the medical community the flu vaccine missed its target this year. So no, I don't think many of us should get the vaccine at this point this year.
8
Does it now show the issues with autocratic systems !
Buyers remorse .. when the world loves to get the progress that China is making it forgets these pitfalls of the system.
When a Doctor who actually noticed this outbreak when only less than 10 persons were affected he was paid a visit by Police and asked agree to "shut up!" and now the world is reaping the "benefit" of such a system!
41
Shocking. So it turns out you need to do more than torture and jail dissidents to run a modern society properly? Who knew.
28
Would you expect anything different from a totalitarian society, and in a world where mis-information ( aka lying) has also become an epidemic?
22
@Gary
Like we don't have a lot of lying going on in this country
This crisis has hit the world hard and it seems that the response instead of being sympathetic to many Chinese people who are suffering is rather based on fear only.
Just a quick reminder people any many Chinese people are suffering, and CNN I want to send out some healing prayers to the world. Wishing quick recovery to all.
P.S. not sure why Chinese Red Cross doesn’t have English page for donations— they should.
11
I bet this instruction is part of the CDC and WHO recommendations: Wash your hands regularly and don't panic -- this isn't SARS.
1
I want to know about the Chinese presence in Africa and how many people have been going back and forth. Engineers and workers for all these infrastructure projects....now with this new information that the virus can stay alive for five days on surfaces or the latent period where people can come into contact with someone that has it but not show signs for 14 days or more.
This would cripple Africa, as explained by many officials.
19
The H1N1/009 pandemic which originated in North America and killed over 200,000 people and infected more than 20 million Americans was identified months after it became a problem. It lasted nearly 2 years, early 2009 to late 2010.
So far, the speed in which China has address this is remarkable. And if anything, reporters should bear that in mind. Hopefully, with every country making concerted effort to find a vaccine, this disease will be short live.
7
The Chinese gov can build a hospital in ten days but there aren't enough medical professionals to staff it.
I've read their doctors and nurses are terribly overworked and many have become ill from this alone.
A Hyundai factory has shut down from lack of parts and that's bad because people need to make a living but the government in it's rush to produce produce produce did not prepare for this or any other medical crisis.
From what I've read, factory workers in China are often forced to work many hours and many live in dorms where the living conditions are far from sanitary with poor air quality.
Illness could spread quickly in a place like that. But there are no unions and no worker's rights. Pollution is everywhere.
China is a communist country, period. It doesn't take care of it's people. They are expendable.
I am angry that the Chinese are going through this. Little children getting sick and hospitals all full.
My daughter and her family live in Japan. I care about them and all other families, and these I-Told-You-So commenters need to shut up.
It could happen anywhere.
15
If President Xi Jinping has so much power and control, then invest some of that money in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and get the people on a new diet. You can't always eat what you want.
5
Living here in New York City, one would think racism is not as common. As an American Born Chinese, I've seen the number of hate people can have because of fear. It is far too common now to see a person bullied for wearing a mask while commuting on the train. It just hurts to see people being picked on for an issue they had no control over. There is no doubt that there is a rise in bigotry against Chinese people and other Asian groups. hopefully, there may be some reporting done to bring awareness.
20
@Ray G.
Maybe it's not bigotry but just good risk management by just staying away from Asians that are unknown to you at this time since no one knows whether that individual has been to China or not. Unfortunately it is better to be safe than to be sorry, it's basic human instinct.
3
@philly
bullying a person for wearing a mask while commuting on the train is not risk management. It is racism. PERIOD
10
Apparently the Chinese released information on this virus and how fast it was spreading quite some time after they knew what was happening.
All we have to do is put a moratorium on planes and boats bringing people and goods into our country. We can do without Chinese products fort a while, we'll make do and that's far more important than risking getting the Coronavirus.
6
Good luck getting hold of any of the 150 essential drugs used in the US then (think anesthetics, heparin, insulin, antibiotics). All made in China and no, we have no stockpiles.
12
The past year tole the whole world that Hong Kong people really wanted democracy. But the medical workers there do not have humanity. I expected that they would volunteer to go to Wuhan where medical workers are on demand.
"Hyundai is suspending production in South Korea amid supply chain problems".
Hyundai and other manufacturers should NOT put all their eggs in one basket.
Cheap is not always the best policy.
Or find two or three countries to supply one's products.
Poor planning, depending on one country for one's products.
8
This virus is far worse than we are being officially told. My Chinese friends tell me that the infection, death and recovery rates are woefully inaccurate. Maybe we will never know the true numbers. In China the hospitals are full, people are dying in their homes and the government is struggling to pick up the bodies, the morgues are overflowing. China isn’t being “more aggressive” and shutting down a whole country for nothing. It can’t just be a normal flu. Sympathy for the Chinese people. Prayers that the public health measures in place elsewhere will stop the spread around the world. The economic impacts simply show how much the world depends on China (and maybe outsourcing whole industries was a bad idea). People are scared. I live in an area in Melbourne with a large Chinese population. The shopping centres and restaurants are empty, you can’t buy hand sanitiser for love or money. I’ve heard people are buying them all and sending them to China. But, once this crisis is over the economy will quickly bounce back - focus instead on the people.
118
What is the status if hospitals in cities adjacent to the Wuhan outbreak?
If patients are being turned away from hospitals in Wuhan and these patients are not being tested for the virus, it’s important to know where else this is happening.
This could provide a better understanding of the true volume of infections than the official Chinese information.
12
Just want to state that we should not make the mistake to believe that a capitalistic/democratic system would do better in a public health crisis. Case in point: 60,000 people are dead yearly due to prescription drugs. 60,000 people are dead due to gun violence.
We have no adequate response system either.
87
@Jzu
Amen
1
I live in China. The New York Times says over 600 cases have recovered. We are still in lock down in my big city. The streets are mostly empty. The only stores open are convenience stores, a local supermarket, a fruit market, and a vegetable market. I haven't gone to the megastore but it's probably closed. All these stores are downtown.
I bought vegetables tonight - red peppers, green beans, brocolli, etc. - it's still cheap. Under 20 yuan for a full bag, which is about 3 dollars. The vegetable store was full, even had boxes of strawberries.
So our zombie apocalypse continues. The streets are mostly empty, in my huge apartment complex you have to pass a cop and get your temperature checked to get in. Checking google all the time, no one in my city has the virus yet. Life is strange and eerie here, but people aren't dying.
There is a real feeling of being trapped in your home. But what are you doing to do?
169
Living in the countryside doesn't feel so bad afterall. I would certainly not allow a random cop to check my temperature in order to be allowed to enter my home.
4
@David it sounds like plans put in place are working. Have faith and keep us informed. Good luck.
15
@David
Hope your city continues to be spared.
If ever you wanted to write -- your life story, poetry, that children's book, a novel, play, letters to your future self, what-have-you -- if only you had the time, perhaps now is that time.
I'm a writer. I'd be reading like mad, trying to catch up on all the books I've had to put aside over the years.
Best of luck to you, David. Really.
Please keep posting to NYT articles. I bet I'm not the only reader who'll be watching for your updates.
14
If we were to face a substantial outbreak are we ready? First the leadership question - What will Trump do? I hope he listens to experts from CDC, NIH and State DOHs. But he tends to do the opposite of what Obama did. We know what Obama did during the Ebola outbreak. He was criticized for following CDC recommendations so much so that state Governors took over. In the end, CDC was not totally wrong.
So what else is different? We have a free press. Yes some fake news can get out there but by and large we do very well and if you take this newspaper it has been responsible.
Finally our healthcare system - we are overwhelmed with Flu activity currently and so a new outbreak will test our limits.
Even before that, we need to fund CDC and other agencies substantial more. CDC just ran out of money managing the current outbreak with just 11 patients in the US. Congress should authorize funds to be transferred from the Pentagon to Public Health.
21
A friend in Sichuan told me that with her restaurant closed, she is losing 500 rmb ($71) a day, which is a lot of money in China. She has been pretty vocal about her displeasure on WeChat, the do-it-all app that also serves as a message board in China. Today, after openly worrying about getting in trouble, she has gone silent.
26
Wow! So relieved to know that coronavirus has been almost instantly eradicated. Well, at least Wall Street (with a 500+ point gain in the Dow) seems to think so. Or is it because Trump needs to have the stock market at its peak before his State of the Union address tonight, and the Fed and his other minions (Wall Street, MBS, Xi, Putin etc. - who knows) are working hard to obey His Majesty?
25
I was struck by the headline of the companion piece (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/business/china-coronavirus-government.html) "Coronavirus Crisis Shows China’s Governance Failure. As the Communist Party cements control, more officials worry about pleasing their bosses than taking care of the people."
I'm in the middle of listening to "A Very Stable Genius" and I'd say that the above description fits the Trump administration and Senate Republicans PERFECTLY.
The difference between Xi and Trump is that one of them knows that China and India share a border, and I suspect that Xi also knows what happened at Pearl Harbor.
My hope for the people of Wuhan, and everywhere else, is that this outbreak will soon be contained and people can go on with their lives.
17
China is going to look like a model for efficiency when it’s up so someone like Betsy Devos whether public school need to close in infected US cities.
14
By ending democracy with Chinese characteristics aka a term limited collective leadership model, Xi Jinping has claimed and seized the Mandate of Heaven of a Chinese Emperor.
To reign and rule until his natural death he can't blame anyone else for his leadership failures during this coronavirus crisis.
Punching down makes him look cowardly and weak. And by governing political definition he has no peers.
Sending his feckless Premier Li Kijianq to the frontlines was like Trump sending Vice President Mike Pence.
As the son of a Chinese Long March legend who rose and fell under Mao Zedong, before rising under Deng Xiaoping, Xi Jinping has something in common with Donald Trump.
Winning the genetic wealth and power human daddy lottery doesn't make you humble, humane and empathetic by nature and nurture.
15
This is all got started due to the Chinese appetite for fresh killed exotic animals where the killing takes place in a market crowded with shoppers and all sorts of living creatures awaiting their own deaths. For a country that mythologizes its 'culture' these practices are dangerous and just plain disgusting!
43
@joseph gmuca
For a country that mythologizes its gun culture which kills more people in a year than this virus will kill, these gun practices are dangerous and just plain disgusting.
All cultures have something within them that are dangerous and just plain disgusting.
14
The health issue is not only illness from the virus but hospitals becoming so jammed that people with other critical or chronic illnesses, heart, cancer, will not get the care they need because of crowding and because staff will become overwhelmed.
This all has repercussions far beyond cases of coronavirus that might emerge here.
30
For the first time the second largest economy China is sneezing and its people screaming for help, but is not impacting American economy adversely. In fact it looks like China has become a red hot potato that countries around it and the rest of the world are shunning.
China should focus on a multi pronged strategic approach to respond to the crisis and outsmart the Wuhan Corona virus. Tough talk and panic will not enable the dragon to spit out the Corona virus. Right now China also needs to ensure that every Chinese person has access to a balanced diet. A malnourished person cannot mount a robust immune response to clear any virus from the respiratory tract or the body. There is a shortage of vegetables in Wuhan and other key food items that constitute a balanced diet. Wild animal markets need to be shut down and supply chain of fresh foods need to be revitalized only then China will be rising again.
11
They say wearing a mask is not that effective unless you’re sick so not to spread the virus.
But yet they say a shortage of masks puts healthcare workers in danger.
Contradiction?
13
@Anonymous
Good question. It may have to do with the fact that "everyday" face masks are no protection but the ones medical staffs use are. Some are just flimsy; others impermeable. If non-medical people shell out for top brands, it might cause a shortage.
8
@Anonymous Healthcare workers need to put masks on those they care for. It is likely they'll wear the mask as an additional precautionary method. The masks are to prevent the virus from leaving the body through sneezing and coughing; not to prevent it from entering by breathing.
4
@Thomas
Only partly correct. The top rated masks prevent disease from entering.
5
I hope that this virus will convince people to not eat animals out of normal diet for humans. Humans are not supposed to eat Rhino horn, bats, tiger paws.... it's not a surprise if people get sick from it.
27
No one claimed that humans are not supposed to eat pork after a swine flu outbreak or eat lettuce after a salmonella outbreak.
The problem isn’t with eating “weird” food by our standards, its with eating diseased unsanitary food.
15
@HR
People get sick in this country because they eat food that is contaminated with e coli and Hep A and other diseases. And some people actually die.
Many of the people in China that get their live wild animals at the market are NOT eating Rhino horns, or tiger paws. They are eating wild animals as a delicacy. Those wild animals are not always endangered.
@Julie
Machine farming is weird food
1
When I first heard about 2019-nCov I was worried sick. My parents were both from China and had their parents living there. At first I thought that things might be ok. But is has now reached the province of my grandparents residence. At secondary school, many people said I had the coronavirus. At first I thought they were joking around and waved it off. But now as it becomes a very serious thing, is started getting angry. I started to ignore them. Whenever I see an article about how people are being xenophobic towards Asians. I got mad. If anyone had done that in my country I would’ve reported them to the authorities. Now my true friends are serious(although we joke about other non-sensitive things) and don’t joke to me about the new 2019-nCov. They feel sorry for me and threatened anyone who was being racist to me. For instance this S1 came up to me in computing and had the nerve to say “Sup, Chinese man, stay away from me.” I told my friends and they were mad. They even threatened the little kid! I was happy and glad I had such friends. I hope the people that are racist could just stop doing these cruel things. Even in other countries there are many people who help in anyway they can. China has a problem in their hands. Hong Kong riots, 2019-nCov and a feeding issue. And that may not even be the start. This is getting serious. I hope people can stop the cruelty and start setting up a fight against the threat to us. I hope that this can end. Every little cruel thing. Please.
8
This virus is no a Chinease problem- it's a problem for the entire human race. To defeat it we must work together. China, USA, Thailand( whose Doctors discovered a new way to treat the virus), EU,- and the whole world.
I can't believe it when I hear stories like yours. This is a time for the world to unite to solve this horrible problem.
3
As to why China is dominant in manufacturing the answer lies simply in the size of the Chinese marketplace.
For example, in China over 23 million vehicles were sold in 2019 which is more than that of the US, Germany, France and the UK combined.
With that giant marketplace comes a massive supply chain which is a big reason the world buys Chinese components. The larger your manufacturing base the cheaper unit price can be.
4
The biggest economic impact right away is that people will avoid contact with other people. Restaurant, travel and leisure businesses will take a big hit right away. If it lasts too long it may be enough to precipitate a recession.
9
The article about what you need to know about the virus is sketchy, assuming because a lot still remains unknown. The big question is how is the virus spread, through touch or through the air--or both and to what degree. Other questions:
1. How long are virus particles viable once expelled from a carrier?
2. Which mucous surfaces carry the virus; where does it replicate fastest in the human body?
3. It's suggested old people are more susceptible because of lessened immune systems. Is this solely related to disease or to aging in general. If the latter, are there tests to correlate what type or amount of immunity is compromised in relation to susceptibility of infection--an epidemiological study?
One would imagine that airborne tests to determine infectiousness are dangerous to perform. Are samples that the CDC works with live samples, and how are they kept viable, or is everything done on site with patients?
The article states that confirming tests of who is infected are done in a CDC lab. Why is this not done in the field, and what field tests are available to determine the presence of any virus, i.e. what is available to doctors for routine testing; what viruses are detected, and how expensive is it?
One other note: While we are awaiting a vote by Republicans to approve election criminality, they are also criminals on the infectious disease front, proposing cutting funding for pandemics and research, and opposed to insurance coverage of pre-existing conditions.
14
The shutdown of the Hyundai factory, is a reminder that there are costs associated with outsourcing products to low cost 3rd world countries. Yes I know China is not technically a 3rd world country, but much of its support systems are entirely 3rd world. We are seeing a demonstration of that right now.
26
We know that 500 people have recovered from this infection and there may be thousands more who have also recovered and are now immune. Can a person who now has antibodies be given interferon alpha and other immunotherapy drugs to increase white blood cells produce even more antibodies to fight the virus?
If a person is immune and a compatible blood donor with someone who is infected then can they share blood an immune system that is resistant to the virus? An immune person with milder symptoms would probably make better donors and they would continue to produce new antibodies as long as blood is supplied with new viruses to destroy.
If this method works then are both individuals then immune to the virus and also able to perform additional transfusions?
@PictureBook
Unfortunately, I don’t think that could happen because of your bodies white blood cell control. What could happen could be you body might kill far too many white blood cells causing your anti bodies to might forget how to fight the virus. Also, the viruses impact on your body depends on how strong your immunity system actually is. I’m only a secondary school student but I know this much.
3
@PictureBook There is no evidence that Immunoglobulin from recovered patients is neutralizing/protective. Even it is, at best, you can create a very small pool of doses. Alpha interferon injections have major side effects and never shown to increase selective Immunoglobulins that you are seeking.
1
@PictureBook I have read that immunity to this is short lived -- it is not permanent (like the mumps), thus someone who has been ill with the virus can catch it again and become ill again.
2
One important lesson here. To not consider China as the one main location as the world's production center. One can see what is happening to the supply chain. This has nothing to do with China. In the first place, why is it that all those corporations, large and small, take all their production plants to China? As much as China had to offer cheap land and labor, there are other locations as well with the same incentives. It is time, for those businesses who have gone into China, to start diversifying the location of their plants, and not concentrate in one place. The pros and cons of that exercise is now right in front of us to see.
14
Can we learn from this? Sars, Ebola, and this outbreak can teach us a great deal about systemic responses in crisis. One thing we've learned (that we already knew) is that the true rogue element is human fear. We have fire drills relentlessly at my school (more than a dozen a year) for a single contained, potential event.
Nations need to start practicing for the coming crises that will range from climate change catastrophes, to food shortages, to wars, to outbreaks of illness.* It's difficult to respond in the moment when panic has set in.
For years, I've been calling for an international committee that does nothing but plan for pandemics and global crises, and I mean down to the last details, where known. Where, exactly, are we putting the millions who will (not might, will) be displaced by rising sea level? Exactly where. Who pays for it? How do we compensate those who may be asked to give land? How do we provide millions with food during a crisis like this? Where are the backup generators? How do we keep medicine cold? How do we quarantine large numbers of people and enforce it without violence?
We aren't, frankly, very good in the day to day management of things. In a crisis, the stakes are higher even as our resources are at a low ebb. Sure, there are myriad organizations all of which dabble in or even focus on different aspects, but we need a global plan. Now.
---
* A bit sobering to think of those four horsemen on the hill and how prescient our ancestors were.
31
This virus shows the strength of a highly organized
government via its ability to built a new hospital in 10 days
and to control the movement of people's.
However, the inflexibility of organized governments
to do anything common sensical until the Central Power
has made up its minds, demonstrates its weakness.
All the more reason to keep the Electoral College.
4
@John Brown I don't see the connection of what the Chinese government and the Electoral College. One could also make the opposite conclusion. Since the Electoral College gives more power to rural areas, there is less interest in protecting populated areas i.e. states with big cities where serious epidemics are much more likely.
Also, in the early stages of the outbreak, Beijing tried to sweep the problem under the rug and was slow to respond. It's true that when the problem was recognized as serious they reacted seriously.
4
@Jackson The instant hospitals oly have to last a year. The hosputal built in Beijing for SARS morew than ten years ago is still standing, and is being renovated for coranavisus
It looks like the Chinese Emperor has no clothes.
11
@David H
This isn’t a joke. We need to be serious about this. I’ve been bullied about this and all you can say is that. I hope you can read this and start doing something to help the world.
14
@Ming Chang Z
Are you being bullied in Edinburgh??
5
@Ming Chang Z I feel for the chinese people. This time must feel very isolated for them. Also Mr. Xi Jinping I think looked intensely concerned about the situation on a photo some weeks ago, that he really feels about this. Sometimes I am angry that it has gotten out of control, but we all are human and need to help each other. Not to say that people don't have a right to be angry, feel powerless and want to protect themselves. I feel guilt when I am avoiding a Chinese person with a cough in a grocery store. I'm paranoid about meeting a family member who has traveled by plane. And maybe I get infected in a high speed train when I visit my mother, and unwittingly infect her. It's a scary unpredictable situation.
I feel so bad for the people of China. How sad and scary for them. I worry about them being able to survive not just this virus but in general with food supplies running low etc. I do hope that this does start another condemnation of the Chinese people in general.
39
@Zoenzo
Thanks man. My mum and dad are from China and I was born in England (Not gonna specify). This shows that many people like to joke, but some people are actually noting this and giving support. I would just like to thank you considering the amount of people at school bullying me about it. I appreciate it.
49
Xi and his cronies will unfortunately not pay the price for initially covering up the crisis, allowing the spread of the virus into a potential pandemic.
24
@Roy S
As you very well know. The government has problems with the situation. The most likely reason he done that is to not cause the Chinese people to start freaking out. I’ve been to China several times and everyone is happy, ready to assist, and helps every man in need. You can just think about how all 1.4 billion people will freak out if they straight away told them. More reasons for them to keep it a little down is also due to the fact that it might be a small little thing, and they cannot yet confirm the fact that it will be an international health concern. Even ESP cannot predict that much.
2
Does Xi realize that it is precisely because lower cadres believed they were obeying “the unified command “ that this crisis has gotten as out of control as it has ? That he and the government is responsible for the very bureaucracy he now decries ? Talk about double-speak. Almost makes me feel for the officials ...
64
@lm communism doesn’t work and has never worked. It has been a disaster for the citizenry wherever it has been tried. It is a good idea on paper but a mess in the face of reality. There will never be a Steve Jobs or Elon Musk in a communist nation. Instead you have governments in which hardly the best men rise to the top.
5
@Lonnie Hmm, I don't think much of dictatorships and I think democracies are the best form of governments but the Russians did beat us with Sputnik, and a few other things.
I think being democratic + being an immigrant nation rich in resources helps a huge deal.
1
@Lonnie All the best people - noble prize winners, dissidents, and rights lawyers - are jailed.
Glad that Great Leader for Live, Mr. XI is going to spend money on sanitation now. Should have been doing that instead of building islands in the south seas for military bases.
30
Global supply chain beginning to falter. Hyundai can’t get parts, suspends production. This is real, folks.
10
Have we considered the food Americans buy from places like Walmart. Many of the foods they sell are sourced or packed for distribution in China. Big pharma, in the constant push to produce big profit, compounds majority of our drugs in India and China. When we finally discover a vaccine, will it be packaged at ground zero?
12
"It appears that while they can slow the spread of disease when worn by sick people, the masks — of which there is now a global shortage — do little when worn by healthy people."
rather than effectively explain this paragraph creates confusion.
those NOT apparently sick ARE contagious so wearing a mask in that instance would be effective.
6
In China each infected person was transferring the virus to an average of 2-3 other people. This was before much was done to stop infections and in a country where sanitation and health care systems are sub-standard.
In the US we have had 9 "primary" cases (people getting infected in China then brought themselves and the virus back to US). They have transferred the virus to 2 other people, both times a spouse living with them. That is a transfer rate of 2/9 or 0.22 - you must have a rate of more than 1 to get beyond sporadic cases to an actual epidemic. Yes these people may have spread the disease to others that have not yet been diagnosed - but at this time they have been under quarantine for so long that even the worst case scenario would not produce more than 1 or 2 "yet to be discovered" transfers. Thant would mean a maximum transfer rate of 0.44 - still way below what could produce an epidemic. If we keep doing what we had been doing this thing is over before it really begins.
9
@Ivan : The true data on transmission rates here won't come out for a couple of weeks, at least. Here's the issue:
About 5 million people left Wuhan for Chinese New Year celebrations before the quarantine was imposed. Those people traveled all over China.
Infected people may take up to 2 weeks to show symptoms, but are contagious during that time. (At least, that's what's currently believed about Wuhan coronavirus).
While flights have been suspended to/from Wuhan and Chinese nationals are barred from entering the U.S., it is still possible for American citizens and legal residents who were in China during the outbreak to fly back to some key places in the U.S. (including JFK and LAX).
Unlike those who took the last planes from Wuhan, these people coming from other parts of China are NOT being quarantined -- just scanned to see if they have a fever!
So it's entirely possible that the U.S. is admitting -- and not quarantining -- people from China who may have been exposed to Wuhan coronavirus and are asymptomatic but infectious.
Only time will tell what happens in the U.S. based on this.
11
@Ivan I have my fingers crossed that you are right, but the CDC admitted yesterday they are not able to identify 100% of infections in the U.S. and are hoping to slow the spread. Given that they only have 82 tests pending, as of yesterday, I don't think they are looking hard enough. I'm sure they are having logistical issues, but I suspect Bolton trashing the pandemic response team in the NSC has something to do with our lackluster response. Optimism is great, but an ounce of prevention is worth a heck of a lot of ICU beds.
9
@Rose
There will I'd guess be young, healthy young people who develop symptoms but shrug them off as a simple flu case because they never get sick enough to see a doctor. Those they contact might not be so fortunate.
8
At Harvard Business School I learned about assessing country risk which was critical in determining the net present value of investments. Professor after professor also bemoaned the fact that few business actually do this risk assessment in real life. Diversification was another big buzzword.
I don't believe American companies would have put all their eggs in the China basket had they factored in the real risk of doing business in China, a country whose government is wholly untrustworthy and vindictive with an abysmal track record for unleashing major diseases that disrupt global markets and, in this latest case, may very well cause a global depression!
46
@American Abroad So Harvard teaches methods nobody uses... How much did you pay for that?
5
We are going to need to work together as a community if 2019-nCov becomes a problem here. If a city determines people need to stay home, we’ll need to do that even if we feel fine. I see comments about staying home for a day and losing a day’s pay. With an incubation period of up to two weeks while being asymptomatic and contagious, it’s possible folks would be home for weeks as our cities and country tries to stop this coronavirus. That will be difficult. We’ll need to cheer each other on and work together. This might eventually mean not going to things like concerts, book readings, parties, etc.
Hand washing is crucial. We’ll also have to accept that we might feel fine while being contagious with a virus that could kill someone else. I’m unsure why people flatly say that wearing a mask is useless. There are studies on mask effectiveness. Go search the NIH database, etc. With the freedom of the internet, fact check things for yourselves.
IF 2019-nCov becomes a problem here, it’s going to be hard. We’ll have to help each other and stay strong. We’ll have to make decisions based on what’s best for all of us rather than what we as individuals want. We’re going to need to treat and consider ALL AMERICANS with love and responsibility as we weather this storm.
53
This reminds me of how "work from home" strategies could be a boon in many circumstances.
13
Not all masks are equal. While not entirely useless, commercial masks are not effective at filtering the 2019 NCoV particles. For that you need an N95 respirator that should be fitted expertly with testing. Perhaps what any mask does best is keep one from touching the nose and mouth. The best thing to do is to wash your hands frequently. I say this as a licensed and certified physician assistant.
16
Unfortunately that's not how it works in Communist China. Where there is no empathy, compassion or concern for the individual. The party elite deals with error or opposition of any kind from man or nature with brutality and myopia. They have tried to drill out humane traits in their population for generations. They refuse to learn from their great failures, like the cultural revolutions, disastrous agricultural policies and the one child policy that has created a gender imbalance in the country. They will keep secret the death tolls dispose of their dead secretly and eliminate any who cry out.
8
Although todays article is toned down, the headlines remain deceptive, even inaccurate. This is a novel virus, without ANY herd immunity or vaccine, perhaps as much as 30 times more deadly and 2-4 times more contagious than seasonal flu. “reassuring headlines” comparing NCov favborably to seasonal flu can be dismissed by everyone. While we dont know the danger at yet, there is certainly NO evidence yet this is “less a risk than the flu”=quite the contrary. A healthy adult, having expsoure to multiple flus and multiple flu vaccines in the past decade is clearly at more risk from NCov.The only question is HOW much....we can dismiss the data coming out of chiuna at this point. On the one hand , this possibly overetimates the death rate as the number of cases are being under reported and unknown/untested.Xis concern and response have been unprecedented; much of china is on a quasi martial law footing, millions of reservists and actiev duty are to imposing tarvel bans and quarrantines. Obviosuly he views this as an existential threat to the party, so much so hes willing to suffer a signfiicant decline in GDP while he fights NCov. The deaths occuring now are from cases exposed 1-2 weeks ago. Extrapolating at thsi point sugegst an Ro 3x that of seasoanl flu. Now that its out ion western world though we shoudl be getting accuaret spread data int he next 2 weeks.Until then theceiling for this contagion remains scary, lets be honest.
47
@John Wesleyi : I couldn't agree more that there is ambiguity around the data. The Chinese are certainly underreporting cases if for no other reason than their hospitals can't handle all the cases and they have insufficient test kits.
But an article in the NYT a day or two referenced people in Wuhan complaining that family members had died at home after never being diagnosed -- let alone properly treated -- due to the medical system being overwhelmed.
As a result, know there is an underreporting of *cases* of Wuhan coronavirus, but we don't know how it compares to the actual death rate, which could be higher, or a lower, than the current data suggests.
19
@John Wesleyi I agree with much of your post that there is still a lot to learn about the full scope of this virus. But I'm not sure I understand this claim: "A healthy adult, having expsoure to multiple flus and multiple flu vaccines in the past decade is clearly at more risk from NCov." Can you clarify? And how do we know that the current deaths are from cases that were diagnosed awhile ago? One of the things that we still need is a lot more detail around all the cases - recoveries, fatalities, the stats on those who passed or needed significant medical intervention, etc. And I don't think any accurate data will be forthcoming for quite a while, possibly until China allows foreign medical specialists in to see the full scope and assist with the overwhelmed hospitals.
3
The reality is extremely worse than what is reported. On the NPR/BBC news show this morning, the reporter spoke over phone to a lady in Wuhan. The women in thirties lives with her parents, uncle, brother and son. The uncle died of the virus at a quarantine facility, which she said were hotels with absolute no medical staff and very poor conditions. Her father at home with same symptoms, extremely high fever, coughing, having verydifficulty to breath and dying. Her brother and Mom are now also showing the initial symptoms of fever and cough. All their efforts to get medical help for his dying father has been futile as there are no hospital beds available. None of them can even be tested. So none of the 4 above, including his dead uncle and dying father, are among government statistics. She said her family situation is repeated all over Wuhaan.
189
@IdoltrousInfidel
these circumstances were reported by at least two credible news outlets a week ago
there simply aren't resources available to test for the virus let alone treat and this has been the case for close to a month now.
the fact that there is not a high profile "A-Team" collectively working on a vaccine is telling.
China's apparent bureaucratic failures are arguably understandable—the international community's bureaucratic failure not so much.
24
The limited supply of test kits is a terrible excuse. The patient showed repeated symptoms that is different from a flu: particularly an infected white lung in X-ray. Nonetheless, refusing or unable to provide medical treatment is one thing, but refusing to count in the patient is another. It is a straight LIE to the Chinese people and the world. We need to fight for the right to know.
25
This is definitely the way I see this row of dominoes falling. They are overwhelmed. They are going to run out of food, and their supply chains will all be disrupted. This does not bode well for any of us. Thank God my husband works from home. I am getting “ready.” I suggest everyone paying attention do the same. God bless.
22
I would like to know the percentage of people that not only die but get sick enough to require hospitalization. I saw somewhere it was 25% of those affected. Let's say 10% are intubated (hooked up to a breathing machine). Is it just me or does anyone think "they didn't die but spent a week in ICU" It is not being reported and that makes me wonder..
11
@Daphne : Indeed. I think we need data on hospitalization rates, serious complications, and long-term health problems as a result (like lung scarring).
8
I have carefully read and reread all the mask articles. I still can't find a downside beyond creating a shortage where they might be more critical. I get the importance of protecting medical providers and that my risk mitigation by using one is quite minimal. However, if you have some available to use, what is wrong with decreasing risk but even a few percent?
Specifically this is how I think about it: Currently,the odds of having an infected person spew enough virus on you for infection while riding the 7 train is statistically quite low to begin with. So most of the time the mask is wholly useless. And if it does happen, the mask is far from 100% protective because you could get it in the eye, the mask may have slipped off your nose, etc. *But* it could still work and at some point, the odds could go up. Starting with masks when infection is already rampant may be too late. And, if everyone masked up, including the virus shedders who are not feeling sick, how would that not decrease transmission? This of course assumes hand washing, etc.
51
@The F.A.D. The problem with the masks is that most are seen wearing a surgical mask. That kind of mask only prevents the wearer from spewing their germs out. It does not protect the wearer. The n95 masks protect the wearer but does not stop germs coming from them. So if everyone wears a surgical mask the rate of transmission may slow down since germs are not actively spewed as easily but it leaves the uninfected person vulnerable. The only other benefit to wearing either mask is that it may remind you not to touch your face unless you vigorously hand wash before. Goggles or face shields are also a good idea but if it's coming down to that it's best just to stock up and shelter in place.
6
N95, N99, N100 (or the P versions) ventilators (masks) are best. They can be fitted and hold their shape. Even if they aren't specifically medical. Contractor grade will work. 3M or Honeywell. Look at their videos on YouTube to get donning, fitting and removal as well as fit test instructions. Surgical masks are useless except to the patient, they won't protect you. They cannot be fitted. The CDC, NIOSH, WHO etc... Recommend N9x-9100 or P9x-P100 rated ventilators internally. Also wear eye gear. Leave it at the door in the garbage when you come home. Leave your shoes and eye protection at the door, don't touch your mouth, nose or eyes. Go wash your hands thoroughly with good antibacterial soap (I know, its a virus), grab your can of lysol and go spray your shoes and eye gear. Oh, and you touched the door and the sink, lysol those. This lives on fomites for up to possibly 72 hours. Check it, it's in the Lancet. Good luck. Stay safe. Hope it doesnt come to this, but it did over there.
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@The F.A.D.
The point is that masks protect against the wearer infecting anyone else, not the other way around.
The best way to avoid this chaos in the future is to make the ban on sales of exotic food (like cats, bats, snakes, etc) in China permanent. There is no shortage of "normal" food in China, and these antiquated practices should be strongly discouraged in the 21st century, as they are one of the main sources of new strains of viruses that ultimately can endanger the whole human race.
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@Marat K
After SARS in 2003 such a ban on wild animal markets was already put in place...and they did close...just to pop up again some 2-3 years later. It appears also in China Habits and Traditions might change indeed… but over centuries and maybe over generations...but not in lesser time.
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@Marat K
No, the best approach is to regulate and modernize the production for these kinds of foods. A rigorously inspected factory farm for cats would have the benefit of being as safe as American pork form as well as being able to process many times more cats than these manual, low-tech markets. Efficient and sensible.
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@Marat K
I just want to clarify that most people in China DO NOT partake or condone the practice of eating such wild animals. For example, I lived in China for 12 year and have never encountered or heard of anyone eating bats. These stereotypes probably have some element of truth, as surely a few people among 1.4 billion people do indulge in these "delicacies", but the practice is by no means widespread nor a part of Chinese tradition.
I think at this point people in China realize the danger of this practice and more strict action will be taken. It is unfair to blame the vast majority of Chinese people and stigmatize a whole culture for the fringe of a few. Think what various fringe practices or beliefs that some Americans have that can get out of hand if reported in the foreign media and out of context...
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China manages its economy on the cheap for the benefit of the wealthy at the expense of its population.
On the ongoing pandemic of Coronavirus, as will as the previous pandemics of SARS, etc., all of which originated in China, China’s unregulated livestock industry is a cesspool of dangerous viruses and bacteria. There are many reports of the outbreak of dangerous virus among animals, most recently pigs, in China which forces the culling of large herds of animals. This is why the West has a prohibition for the import of any animals, fowl, etc. from China. The science of the transfer of virus from animals to humans has been proved. There will be more pandemics originating from China as long as China’s livestock industry is unregulated.
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@Gerry O'Brien
"China manages its economy on the cheap for the benefit of the wealthy at the expense of its population."
How is that different than our system here in America?
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@Gerry O'Brien I have to agree. First it was SARS, then it was MERS, and now it's the Coronavirus.
How many opportunities is China allowed to send a pandemic across the globe.
The Chinese individual in this article said the enemy is the virus and not the Chinese people. I get that. However, it is not okay for the Chinese to allow practices that might kill many thousands of people to occur every 10 years or so.
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I believe the best way to avoid this is to wash your hands often, avoid crowds and stay off of planes. This is playing out just like a "B" horror movie as one sick person fly's around the world while governments and officials make major mistakes. Its really all about money from a sick person deciding if they should lose a days pay and stay home to a government deciding how a response will effect its economy.
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@Thomas Renner All the politicians seem to have missed your point about staying off planes. Probably fleeing on planes will temporarily spread things worse, but at least those rescued can be quarantined in somewhat better conditions than is happening in Wuhan.
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@Thomas Renner : I couldn't agree more. If ever there was a time to severely curtail air travel, it's now. Not just with China. One contagious person boards a plane and they can infect a lot of people with so many people crammed in so closely. And then they land and start a new center of infection somewhere else.
Stay close to home, stay off planes, avoid crowds.
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Coronaviruses like the SARS virus are transmitted by shaking hands, indeed the secretions from eyelids and nose carry the virus and we pick it up with our hands. We touch our faces hundreds of time a day. Not touching hands but a fist bump, hand sanitizers, as important as the mask on an acutely Ill person.
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The Chinese people in the video are exceedingly brave and my heart goes out to them. Being amidst such a public health emergency, in a country that knows only how to use threats and terror, not ever reaching for, or understanding, truth and transparency, is a nightmare indeed.
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Dada Wang, we have the utmost compassion for your family and those effected! Fear always brings out ugliness, but light is stronger than darkness. We are holding those effected in the light at our Quaker congregation and reminding those we encounter to remember the human element here. Peace be with you.
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Thank you, truly, for this response. Due to visa issues, I have not gone back to China for two years. Since the beginning of the epidemic, I have seen people in the “developed world” criticizing Chinese people based in an imagination of their collective behavior, with no concrete knowledge of the lived experiences of those actually affected by the virus. A discourse have been created in which Chinese people are somehow deserving of such misfortune, while their true “crime” is spreading their disease outside of the country. While this mindset is understandable, it breaks my heart to hear about my old grandmother and young niece not being able to go outside for weeks, about my extended family in Wuhan whose lives are constantly in crisis. It is compassionate responses like yours who keeps my fear and sadness at bay.
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@Dada Wang I traveled every few months to China since 2017, and have been treated with boundless generosity, hospitality, assistance and kindness from every single individual I met...from policemen, to subway attendants, to strangers helping me out to find an address, to vendors, to passengers making room for me to sit on the subway...
My heart goes out to those affected and others, and I am impatient to return as soon as possible. I wish the best to your family,
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Everyone is in a mask (really not so terrible, will certainly help some transmissions, as long as there are enough to go around, that seems the only issue), but what of gloves? Interesting that such protection seems far less popular. In public areas where transmission is possible, I would certainly cover my hands, with something either disposable or washable.
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@Moosh Gloves are only useful if you change them immediately after touching something that might have the virus on it, before you touch anything else. Otherwise the gloves can spread the virus the same way your hands can. That means you would need to change your gloves many, many times per day.
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I don't know how that will help if you touch the glove to your face, or any other surface you come in contact with.
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@T
True, true but if, say, going into a large store, I would put on gloves - disposable or washable - seems safer than bare hands, even with hand washing. Stores or airports or airplanes or stadiums - anywhere there is an infected populace and people gather - should perhaps have disposable gloves handed out at the door, and then proper disposal when people exit, along with signage everywhere reminding people to not touch their faces. Perhaps some horrific germs are contained (if, yes, more plastic waste). Proper use of masks and gloves can be quite helpful when it comes to germs, just look at hospitals.
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With the news on the cruise ship,,,hopes may go to zero...for any nation to be speared. The virus will spread and we may soon think also in the US, EU and around the globe to bring public life to a (near perfect) halt for Maybe 10-14 days to finally do the Job Wuhan should have done in the first week of January.
By the way, China has started to suffer from a lack of Energy from Coal mines…
This is no fun. When do we start to acknowldedge full extend of this Crisis. Time is really of the essence here. The sooner the WHO and Leading Countries (G7) will agree on a global "Health-Brake" the more lives will be safed. I might be wrong with all this...but I am afraid, I am not.
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"The committee called for an overhaul of environmental sanitation standards, Xinhua reported, and for a crackdown on the trade in wildlife, which has been identified as the probable source "
The crackdown on the trade in wildlife should have been done long ago after the SARS epidemic, China has been responsible for at least three major epidemics of zoonotic origin the Swine Flu, SARS and now the new Coronavirus epidemic .
According to experts, the new coronavirus likely originated in bats. More than 75 percent of emerging diseases originate in animals, these are called zoonotic diseases meaning they can jump from animals to people.
At least 10 outbreaks in the last century have spilled over to humans from animals such as bats, birds, and pigs. Ebola jumped from fruit bats in west Africa 40 years ago and has killed more than 13,500 people in multiple outbreaks. The SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), MERS (Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome), and Nipah also originated in bats.
The H7N9 and H5N9 bird flu, meanwhile, jumped from infected poultry to people in Chinese markets, together killing more than 1,000 people.
The 2009-2010 swine flu pandemic (also known as H1N1) started, of course, in pigs. It killed nearly 300,000 people in a global pandemic and spread to 214 countries in less than a year.
According to experts, diseases will continue to spill over from animals to humans as the global population grows.
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@Padman
This really was a health crisis Made In China.
Woe is the rest of us, even though they were warned.
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Mortality rate of 2% sounds low, but is a good 10 times higher than "average" flu rate.
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@Paul
So wake me up when the number of cases her in the US get counted in millions not dozens.
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@Paul It's very low until you're part of the 2%.
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@Ronald Weinstein
Remember that your actual chance of becoming a part of that 2% is thousand of fold less than your chance of becoming a part of the "died from seasonal flu" club.
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Much has been written about how panic is an unnecessary aspect of this crisis, amplified by politicians both within China and in other countries banning Chines travellers. Calm public health experts point out that corona virus is in some ways no worse than flus, we just need to quietly quarantine those affected and it will all go away. For those in the US or other first world countries this may be a reasonable approach, keep good virus spread habits and if you get a bad case some hospital will provide the supportive care you need to survive. However, what is happening in Wuhan seems to be truly terrifying. People put into quarantine have no medical care, and if they need respiratory support they will die. The result is that many avoid quarantine, further spreading the disease. Is it possible to enlist the efforts of those quarantined, if provided with oxygen and masks and some basic instruction in how to keep the most sick alive? Dying unnecessarily of dyspnea is not a great prospect for reducing panic.
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@WHM
Completely agree. The spread of this virus in China is in large parts due to the insane punitive approach to containment and an underdeveloped overwhelmed health care system. The only way to contain an epidemic is to have potentially infected people eagerly seeking out interactions with and help from government. This is done by offering them options, not trying to force them.
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@WHM I am an RN in a rural area. When the H1N1 epidemic fears came to the USA we were told by major medical centers in San Francisco that they would not be able to help us with supportive care anticipating that they would be completely overwhelmed in their immediate areas of large cities. Rural hospitals have very few little resources such as isolation rooms and ventilators. I attended pediatric seminars in the Bay area where they speculated the amount of children who may need respiratory support. The number was overwhelming. Our hospital is the largest in our county and we were prepared to ventilate two children. Had the epidemic hit us, that would have been a drop in the bucket. Americans should not be so complacent that they believe they would get help at a "some hospital". That is definitely not the case.
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As horrible as China’s response to the Coronavirus threat has been, it is the right thing to do.
Premier Xi is right, this is a test of China’s governance model and a successful containment of this threat will represent a significant vote in its favor.
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About wearing masks: could the masks help healthy wearers by reminding them to refrain from touching their mouths and noses? Could wearing masks serve a as tangible reminder to exercise caution?
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My partner is a doctor and he’s said they do little to protect you, but that they do serve as a good reminder not to touch your face (to ur hands come into a lot of contact with bacteria - think the tube, ATM’s, supermarket tills) and will definitely reduce the likelihood of your sneeze or cough particles landing on someone else.
If you are young, robust in health and live in a medically forward country, that works in your favour.
Sadly, as much as we try, we never can fully avoid getting a cold or the flu (which is what coronavirus is), so whilst may help limit transmission,and you need to be changing them frequently, it’s not a one stop shop.
Definitely worth it if you plan on travelling through airports and sitting on planes.
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@DD
More importantly protect your hands from contact with the virus. Wear protective gloves and refrain from touching your face. If you have a fresh mask, great. If not, a clean bandana will work to remind you not to touch your lips or eyes. If you are reasonably young and healthy, you should be fine.
Care for your sick and elderly.
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