WHO says Coronavirus outbreak is not a pandemic? W.H.O.
What difference does it make? Really nothing. Every country has to do what it has to do to prevent global spread of this deadly virus. As I have said panic will be unproductive but precautions will be highly productive and should be taken. Better to be safe than sorry. Education and prophylactic trratment is right now the best vaccine against Coronavirus, just as it was a powerful missile against HIV and AIDS. Waiting for a vaccine will be a long wait. After billions of dollars spent on vaccine research over 30 years against HIV all we hear is that the latest vaccine trial in South Africa has failed. No surprise here. Why ? Because we still do not fully know how the clever HIV virus evades human defenses.
Trying to develop a vaccine against Corona virus without fully understanding the pathogenesis ie how the virus causes lung failure and escapes immune surveillance, we will not have figured out how to eventually eradicate the virus from our planet. Wuhan Corona virus is enigmatic right now in terms of our understanding of its ability to kill so many. That is what I keep repeating that we need a multi-pronged global approach to eradicate the Wuhan Corona virus also called by scientists 2019-nCoV.
3
Watching the human misery unfold in Wuhan, China, it makes me think about what would happen if the United States government was suddenly forced to quarantine a large metropolitan city such as NYC, Chicago or LA? Assuming it was even legal or the government had the means to enforce such a maneuver, how would the people trapped behind the lines even cope? How much food is inside the five boroughs of NYC? How long would consumables such as diapers, milk and other items of modern convenience we take for granted last under the same conditions as Wuhan? In places where people typically eat out and don’t keep more than a few days’ worth of food stuffs on hand for personal consumption, would our civility towards one another be better or worse than how the Chinese in Wuhan are handling the pressure? Does the government even have plan to handle such a crisis? If you’re answer is FEMA, I wouldn’t hold your breath.
3
The only silver lining, if there is one , is this is showing us how ill prepared we are to face an epidemic. Here in NYC. Chinese people bought up every single surgeon mask, they kept some for themselves and sent the rest back to relatives in China, they are now doing the same with alcohol based hand sanitizers, emptying the shelves of them. None of this should have been allowed , Just as the Planes from China should have been stopped weeks ago, many Chinese have fled their country and are turning up with relatives here in America , many no doubt have the virus. There are lessons to be learned here .
7
@Lonnie
Just curious: How do you know that "Chinese people bought up every single surgeon mask, they kept some for themselves and sent the rest back to relatives in China, they are now doing the same with alcohol based hand sanitizers, emptying the shelves of them."
?
So there's no way that other New Yorkers have been buying face masks and hand sanitizers?
I agree the U.S. is unprepared for a pandemic, if we get one, but we can do without the jingoism.
5
@Lonnie wrote "...Here in NYC. Chinese people bought up every single surgeon mask, they kept some for themselves and sent the rest back to relatives in China, they are now doing the same with alcohol based hand sanitizers, emptying the shelves of them. None of this should have been allowed..."
It's a free market. And I don't have problems buying them in other states. NYC is an international city. I'm surprised with your comments. It sounds racist to me. This is America, not the Communist China.
3
@Lisa @summer "It sounds racist to me. This is America, not the Communist China."
Yes, this is the USA, a Constitutional Republic, not repressive Communist China and we should all be thankful we live here. The USA is the only nation on this planet where free speech is a constitutionally protected human right. Over time Americans seem to have lost an appreciation for how unique, how precious the First Amendment really is.
Passing subjective judgement and chiding, trying to silence a fellow American for his crimethink personal opinion because "it sounds" racist or jingoist are examples, imho, of not fully appreciating what the Founding Fathers enshrined in our Bill of Rights.
1
More reports are coming out all over the world that question the official story about the origins and extent of this outbreak.
I can't recall ANY outbreak anywhere in the last 50 years that has inspired the type of response we are now seeing in China. We are also seeing shutdowns of air routes worldwide. While China keeps downplaying the outbreak it seems that they are very aware that this is NOT typical of a naturally occurring virus.
It is quite possible that this outbreak has its origins with an accidental escape of a virus from the level 4 containment lab in Wuhan which has been doing work with corona viruses and how they can be carried by bats without them showing any symptoms.
Where are mainstream media investigations into this possibility? If there is only a small possibility this is the case it elevates the danger level of this outbreak. When even a US Senator claims this is a bioweapon, there should be diligent investigations into the possibility - even if only to disprove him.
4
Question: Is there a persistent infection component in the Wuhan coronavirus?
5
Hiding the info will make the spread worsen because people could be too late to react on it.
3
@John
Perhaps Inspector Clouseau can get to the heart of the matter...if he can find the nearest telephone!
Wash your hands. Early and often.
4
I haven't seen much mentioning the other viruses running amok in China.
Two thirds of the pigs in China have died from a swine flu.
Chickens are dying from the H5N1 bird flu.
Is more going on than we've been told or is this all a coincidence?
10
This outbreak has laid bare for the whole world to see how cruel Chinese government can be and the lengths they go to cover up a monumental mistake even if it costs hundreds of lives. The President of China has no term limits after their last big meeting. I am not sure his future in power is that certain anymore.
Other than the Chinese healthcare workers their government has not learn any lessons from SARS experience.
15
This just in: China has been proactively quarantining ethnic Muslims for months.
12
Wonder how many cases of corona viruses that group has contracted? Perhaps they will inadvertently be the ones to avoid this pandemic.
1
I live in San Francisco and it is unnerving and concerning to know that there are people infected in where I live. I really wonder why those tested positive with Coronavirus are not isolated in the hospital. Self-isolating? Really? Then, please disclose their location so we can protect ourselves as well. They could be my next door neighbor and if that's the case, I would ensure I stay away from them as a precaution. Otherwise, they need to be isolated in the hospital until fully recovered.
Airports need to stop incoming flights from China. Are waiting for more infections before this happens?
20
@Hendry
"Please disclose their location"? Why, so you can harass them??
Wow. You might want to read this companion article from the NYT to get a little perspective:
China, Desperate to Stop Coronavirus, Turns Neighbor Against Neighbor
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/business/china-coronavirus-wuhan-surveillance.html
15
@EpidemDoc
EpidemDoc:
Hendry explicitly said that the reason he wanted to know was so he could stay away from them, just as they were supposed to stay away from him. He absolutely did not indicate a desire to harass them in any manner, large or small.
I remind you of the NYC doctor who returned from treating Ebola patients and agreed to self-quarantine for 14 days. But he violated his agreement and went to restaurants and even bowling. Then he came down with Ebola. Contact with someone who is supposed to self-quarantine is exactly what Hendry is trying to avoid.
14
@EpidemDoc Please stop trying to shame and silence a fellow American from asking for the release of public health hazard information from gov't agencies, that exist due to taxpayers' largesse, and whose mandates are to serve US taxpayers' needs and concerns. Hendry has every right to know what health risks are in his neighborhood, in his work place, in the public square, that may harm his/his loved ones' health. Your accusatory attitude to Hendry is inappropriate, imho.
9
There's a lot of "I've heard..." and "I've been told..." type of comments, and none of them are substantiated by identifiable/reliable sources and/or links. These comments are nothing but suppositions and speculations based on hearsay, rumors or fake news.
There's also a number of comments denigrating China and the Chinese. Stop that. As Americans, it's beneath us.
As people to people, let's wish the best to the Chinese and others affected by this virus. If the roles were reversed, we would expect the same.
22
@Confucius
If the roles were reversed, we might expect it as you assert, but we wouldn't get it. We never have. The whole world DEMANDS from us, but very seldom do they come to our aid, and when rarely they do it is very little.
5
@Errol
Sounds like you have a persecution complex.
10
@Confucius "Stop that. As Americans, it's beneath us." Stop. Thinking you are a monarch of a kingdom. Who can decree what Americans should or should not do.
2
If you happen to be on an airline flight and someone begins to show symptoms, when you land you may find yourself quarantined for 2 weeks. Good times.
6
How come there isn't any mention of this anywhere in the NYTimes:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/
8
@David Lange
And the incompetence of the add hoc team created by Trump is evident in its "lock down" type of response. Any professional with just a little bit of knowledge about epidemiology knows that lock down and isolation is the worst thing you can do. The last thing you need is for sick people to try hiding from a heavy handed punitive government effort.
It was classic Trump stupid to dismantle the Obama era leadership team of professionals, but to then put another one together that consists of people with little or no relevant knowledge is - a disaster.
8
@Ivan Actually President Trump's decision to restrict and quarantine a highly transmissible virus is sound, tried and true, public health policy. Please get over your 3 year long emotional antipathy to our President.
@CM
For those of us who read the scientific literature or simply turn our brains on and evaluate facts - the approach of driving potentially infected people into hiding is insane and counter-productive.
My 3-year long antipathy to President Trump is not emotional - it is fact-based and very practical. He is the most fumbling and incompetent person ever to be placed in the White House. His ego is so frail he doesn't take advice from those who know things. His process of finding people to lead agencies is basically to find out how much they love Trump and how rich they are. As a result he gets surrounded by advisers who are incapable of giving him good advice (both because they don't know what they are talking about and because even if they do they can't tell the President that he is not smarter than them).
1
Interesting that there was a group of chinese tourists who returned to china yesterday from cambodia. These people were originally on the same plane as the "lone" case in cambodia, diagnosed on Jan 23. Turns out when they arrived back in china, three were infected with corona virus... there are a lot more cases in cambodia and all of southeast asia than those countries will admit. This could be a disaster because these countries are not recognizing, quarantining, or treating cases of corona.
20
"China’s Health Commission reported on Tuesday that there were 632 recoveries and 425 deaths nationwide."
Except that there's good reason to believe that the numbers of deaths and infections are being underreported. See: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-02-03/china-wuhan-coronavirus-censorship
10
Is bird flu that deadly? That point in the graph seems like a mistake.
I am white but speak good Mandarin and went to a the best hospital in Beijing, Union Medical College Hospital built by (gasp) a nonChinese, John D. Rockefeller. When I walked in the door there were patients sitting on the floor and roosters, dogs, and other animals in the hallway. Then a nurse said I needed to enter the foreigner side. I went out and reentered the hospital thru the foreigner side. No animals in the hallway (thank God for small favors). I went into a doctor’s office and first thing I noticed was no books or the smells of a doctor’s office(such as my dad’s). I told the doctor I had an ingrown toenail. He verbally danced about the subject of what needed to be done and he said he’d be cutting into my toe soon. No aesthetic was in sight. The dancing unnerved me. I then asked a question that infuriated him, “Have you ever done this before?”. He jumped out of his chair as if his rump was on fire, pacing the floor and muttering indignations at a ‘white savage’ (me) having the gall to question him. I didn’t need to know anything more and exited with my Chinese girlfriend. I put some iodine in the nail groove daily for 2 weeks and all was fine.
11
Why aren't the Chinese using their excellent medicine: Traditional Chinese Medicine, using acupuncture and herbs?
8
Some probably are. I certainly would be.
1
At a Super Bowl party last night I heard a disturbing story about a relative who just got back from China and is sick... went to the doctor in NYC and was told to self quarantine as there was no means is testing. It was not reported anywhere or to anyone.,,
25
This seems extremely unlikely. While it is plausible if he/she went to a small primary care practice using paper records, the large Electronic Medical Record companies have all pushed alerts into their products with travel screening, symptoms and recommendations, along with connections to the health department. I work in a large hospital network in New York, and we are actively preparing for this.
"Health experts say they are encouraged by the steady rise in the number of recoveries. They take it as evidence that the treatments meted out have been effective and that the virus does not appear to be as deadly as SARS."
They had better look at a day-to-day increase in severe cases, which are stayed far ahead.
7
We need drastic measures to stop this from becoming pandemic in the US. Remember, there will be no vaccine for at least 12-18 months. And, the medical community has, at least until now, been repeatedly downplaying this disease.
Do you really think our hospitals and doctors can deal with their normal load of medical care plus deal adequately with tens of millions of corona cases and all the necessary examinations, testing, and treatment....especially all the hospitalizations?
I don't believe they can. I believe millions of Americans will suffer the disease with little or no medical care.
15
What you mean is epidemic or endemic. Pandemic is applies in a global context only. Stop spreading fear and follow trusted sources (epidemiologists) for better info on the timing of a vaccine which will likely be sooner given the resources focused on the issue.
3
@Luxe
I beg your pardon for the technical error in word choice. I was in error and I apologize.
However, those "trusted sources (epidemiologists)" should certainly be consulted. But the trust you want us to have is unwarranted. It was on these very pages only 10 days ago that I went back and forth debating with a self-identified "professional epidemiologist) who was certain that there was nothing to worry about with this virus and who declared that a travel ban and quarantine were unnecessary.
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. There is no vaccine and will not be for at least 12-18 months. We should not take chances when there are ways to gain some protection.....even if the "experts" tell us it isn't necessary.
3
I have been posting here repeatedly for 11 days that the US should immediately do a travel ban and quarantine of returning Americans. I was severe in my criticism of Trump for failing to do so just like Obama stubbornly refused to impose a travel ban during Ebola.
To my relief, Trump finally relented and, to my surprise, imposed almost exactly the same terms of travel ban and quarantine that I had been calling for.
However, Trump's delay may have made those terms no longer sufficient because only some other countries are doing travel bans similar to ours. The rest are letting the disease in wholesale. I am beginning to think that we should do a total ban of all non-US citizens from entering the US. In other words, all are banned regardless whether they have been in China or not. That is a very drastic step, but I think unless we do it soon, we will be dealing with a pandemic in the US. Remember, estimates are that there will be no vaccine available for at least 12-18 months.
10
@Errol With that logic, then why not ban everyone from re-entering the U.S., including U.S. citizens who have recently been abroad? The virus doesn't know or care what your nationality is.
8
@Maria
US citizens have a Constitutional right to be in the US. Non-US citizens have no Constitutional or any other legal right to be in the US. Non-US citizens have Constitutional rights only when on US territory. US citizens retain their Constitutional rights wherever in the world they are.
5
How about US citizens who have been living abroad or can only non-citizens get infected?
I'm reminded of 9/11 when folks in the South Tower were urged to return to their offices because the "problem" was in the North Tower.
The US is in the South Tower. "Do you feel lucky, Punk?" The Chinese Communist Party and the CDC got this under control, right? Keep in mind the CDC took Super Bowl weekend off because their website didn't get updated until Monday. CDC taking it seriously this weekend just like the FAA and the 737 Max. Looking at the lack of N95 masks right now, a lot of people are leaving the South Tower and don't trust either government.
23
Buried in the text of the article today: "But even as the death toll has risen, the number of people who have recovered has also climbed in recent days, suggesting that the fatality rate of the virus is relatively low."
Yes, it very low. Why does the NYT hide this important information?
5
@Paulo
The fatality rate appears to be about 20 times as great as for regular flu (1/10th of 1% for flu, 2% for coronavirus).
With no vaccine for at least 12-18 months, perhaps a pandemic with 2% death rate means nothing to you. But it means a lot to me!
Furthermore, the deaths are concentrated among the older people and infants. Therefore, the death rate for them is much higher than the average death rate.
16
@Errol Yes! And it's not been determined whether the "recovered" patients have sustained long term heath damage, which may take time to present symptomatically in terms of chronic diseases.
8
@Paulo
You just quoted it. From the NYT. So how are they hiding it?
5
It's times like this that I wish I were home in the U.S. instead of in a country that appears to be more concerned about losing Chinese tourists and alienating their cash cow China than limiting the effects of the Coronavirus with a health care system that is already overtaxed!
15
From the NYT:
A spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hua Chunying, criticized the American response, adding that, “the U.S. government has not provided any substantive help to the Chinese side yet.”
In an online news briefing, Ms. Hua noted that the United States was “the first to withdraw its consulate staff from Wuhan, the first to suggest the partial withdrawal of embassy staff and the first to announce a ban on entry by Chinese citizens.”
Thank goodness we are ok with offending the global leader in pandemics.
9
Maybe this is only of interest to people who are immune-compromised, but POZ Magazine recently conducted an online (POZ Poll) survey about readers' concerns over this coronavirus debacle.
It was very interesting to see the most recent results that show the percentages being somewhat evenly spread at (very) roughly 25% for each 4 categories, being:
Very concerned
Moderately concerned
Slightly concerned
Not concerned at all
1
"They found that the genetic makeup of the new virus, temporarily called 2019-nCoV, is 79.5 percent similar to that of the SARS coronavirus — a cousin of Wuhan virus that seems to spread more easily, but is less lethal."
Shouldn't that read "spread less easily, but is more lethal"?
6
Good news provided you believe China's numbers, which I tend not to given their tall record of lies.
19
If Chinese hospitals are turning away sick patients, the mortality rate we need to know is for people who get sick when a hospital is unavailable.
Should the population of infected individuals continue to grow at 20% a day, there's the very real possibility that hospitals in the United States (or anywhere) will not be able to provide treatment. I'm also not counting on a robust government response from the White House that slashed the budget for the Centers for Disease Control. This is the team that doesn't believe the science behind climate change..
28
@Alec
"Should the population of infected individuals continue to grow at 20% a day, there's the very real possibility that hospitals in the United States (or anywhere) will not be able to provide treatment."
Very likely because, first and foremost, hospitals will not have enough beds. In his eye-opening and in-depth history of the 1918-191 flu pandemic, this is precisely the point author John Barry makes in his Epilogue.
In tiny RI a hospital recently closed in Pawtucket, and since then nearby Providence hospitals have been overwhelmed by routine ER cases, causing them to reroute less serious cases elsewhere.
Like so many manufactures and retailers who subscribe to just-in-time inventories, the number of hospital beds are determined by current demand. However, an emphasis on reducing costs and improving income has yielded a net loss in surplus hospital beds should they be needed in an emergency.
In late1918 Philadelphia, there were not only an insufficient number of hospital beds, there was also not enough space in morgues to accommodate the dead. Bodies rotted in homes and hundreds were placed in cold storage at a brewery.
Barry makes the point that the 1918 flu actually increased in virulence with each transmission to a new host. We know so little about this ominous coronavirus but its epidemiological contours should become better known soon enough.
Nevertheless, if it calls for thousands of hospital beds, the country does not have them.
8
@Alec What has the CDC done for American taxpayers lately that has had a direct positive protective impact on our public health? Imo, the CDC is more interested in pursuing politically correct agendas abroad or of interest to small groups of US government protected classes stateside, rather than doing something tangible about a public health hazard that threatens all Americans. PFAS are just one example. The CDC, EPA, and DOD have known about the toxic impacts of trace levels of exposure to PFAS for all Americans since 2001 - long before DJT was in the WH. Yet the CDC and its behemoth afore-mentioned sister agencies sat on that information for nearly 2 decades. To this date, the CDC has taken an ostrich approach to PFAS. Superbugs are another example of CDC indifference. Despite the public health risks of antibiotic resistant microbes, the CDC doesn't even attempt to convince federal lawmakers to compel all states' public health departments to send it a complete data package of superbug infection cases that occurred at licensed medical facilities. The CDC doesn't want to know.
Okay folks, here are some facts that unfortunately no news outlet in the USA that I have seen has reported about this virus outbreak in China. First, the fatality rate of this disease is around 2.1 %. That is very low. The fatality rate of the flu last year in the US was at over 10% during the peak months. SARS had a fatality rate of 9.6%. The H1N1 swine flu that originated here in the US in 2009 had a fatality rate of 17.4%, had over a million 600,000 cases and spread to 213 countries. So far in the city of Shanghai one person has died. Shanghai has a population of 24 million. The gross majority of cases of this virus are in Wuhan city and Hubei province of which Wuhan is the capital. And lastly and probably most importantly more people have recovered and been sent home in China from this virus than have died. As of yesterday 361 have died, but 475 have recovered. Draw your own conclusions.
28
@John Coppola Ok folks - key fact: we don’t know. You can’t trust the statistics coming out of China 1) because the CCP is not renowned for its honesty, and 2) they have stated that they can’t test everyone who maybe infected or who has died. Therefore we don’t know the number of infections or deaths so we can’t calculate a fatality rate.
128
@Jon Coppola Please be accurate with your stats. The fatality rate for the flu is 2 per every 100,000 persons per the CDC 2017. Even if it's a little higher this year it's far from 10%, which would be 10 per every 100 persons. If the coronavirus fatality rate proves to be 2.1% that's 2 people for every 100 infected. I suspect it will be far lower as there are very likely many more people who have it but are not sick enough to be hospitalized or tested (so not included in the stats).
72
@Jon Coppola
The flu doesn’t kill 10% of the people infected.
114
Expect a “who knew healthcare was so complicated”..from Mr. We-are-on-top-of-things..
22
Cambodia’s leader, Hun Sen, is discouraging the use of face masks. A poor SE Asian country like Cambodia is likely to become a second cauldron of the corona virus, especially with a leader who is ex-Khmer Rouge, has ruled dictatorially for over 35 years, and for whom in practice life is cheap.
21
This virus is really a competition between US and China, welcome to: "How political can we get".
1
I was disturbed to hear that the NYC health authorities were unable to test the 3 people who are suspected of having corona virus. Instead they had to send samples to Atlanta and will have to wait 36 to 48 hours to get back the results.
The delay means that the virus has time to spread from those who came into contact with the suspected patients.
It was completely obvious to everyone that NYC would see suspected cases, so why wasn’t testing already available? This doesn’t bode well for containing the virus.
23
@JA Are they not isolated or put under home quarantine while awaiting the test results? Do they begin contact tracing, or not until the test is confirmed? I might be overly optimistic as to how the testing is done, but it seems odd that doctors in NY would be suspicious enough that the patients have the coronavirus to have them tested but also send the patients merrily on their way with no restrictions.
10
China is finding out there are major drawbacks to it plan of becoming a world leader. It can no longer conduct 'business as usual.' At the beginning of the Coronavirus debacle it tried its usual 'nothing to see, move along' and it broke down in a few weeks. Now because of that, the world does not trust China's response and they are taking their own actions to protect themselves. The result is ghost town cities, the shutdown of major factories all over the country as foreign businesses cancel orders and pull their ex-pats out of the country. There looks to be a very large impact on China's economy.
China could be facing a Come To Jesus Moment: It can be a world leader but only at the price of transparency in how they run their country, something the Communist Party fears over almost anything, or they can continue to conduct business as usual and not be trusted by the world. That could relegate them to second tier status.
16
The Chinese Communist Party sees scenarios that can result in its overthrow; thus the hysterical overreaction.
3
I would rather be cautious than sorry. The likelihood outside of China may be low, however, the cost of not taking action is very high. The current restrictions in the United States are not sufficient. There are many countries who do not restrict travel with China, such as Pakistan. Unless we restrict travel with those countries, the number of cases will continue to increase.
This is not a position against China or Chinese people. The world should do anything and everything possible to help China. We are in this fight together.
What this experience shows us is that WHO needs more authority to enforce restrictions on countries. These are not decisions to be made by politicians, who are slow to act and have conflicting interests.
24
@Dulcinea
"What this experience shows us is that WHO needs more authority to enforce restrictions on countries."
This from a citizen of the one country in the world that allows no external, supranational body to have any authority whatsoever over that country's affairs. If America can't be the leader of those bodies, America undermines and sabotages them - NATO, UN, WTO, WHO, JCPOA, the International Criminal Court and the rest.
The WHO to have more 'authority' over the USA? Sure...
11
@Dulcinea Why would any US citizen want to assign power to WHO, a political international organization over which we have no electoral control, to make public health decisions impacting our sovereign nation's citizenry? US citizens have enough problems with our own self-serving unelected fedgov't bureaucrats. To add an international layer of powerful faceless bureaucrats would be unhelpful, to say the least.
5
@Dulcinea
WHO needs more authority to force autocratic government s in southeast asia to not allow their countries to become epicenters of new infections because they refuse to acknowledge that they have a problem.
I know newspapers have to ressort to generate fear to get some clicks and money but this is ridiculous. To this day this virus has only killed people with a deficient immune system. An average Northern American or a Western European has more chances to be ran over by a car crossing the street than dying from this virus and I have yet to see the NY times having 24/7 articles about death tolls on world's roads.
7
You’re using the exogenous terrorism over reaction thesis. It’s fair, but terrorism events have been shown to be relatively limited in scope and duration. The potential for a global pandemic that could continue expanding at an exponential rate, for which we have no cure, is quite simply different.
Of course we’re over reacting, but in this case it has a very real chance of impacting most people in the world. I’ll score your comment as fair, but the fear response is not completely irrational in this case.
16
@Robert
There's nothing fear-generating about this article. It's pretty straightforward factual information. Perhaps you should examine why you see it the way you do.
16
China manages its economy on the cheap for the benefit of the wealthy at the expense of its population.
On the ongoing pandemic of Coronavirus, as will as the previous pandemic of SARS, etc., all of which originated in China, China’s unregulated livestock industry is a cesspool of dangerous viruses and bacteria. There are many reports of the outbreak of dangerous virus among animals, most recently pigs, in China which forces the culling of large herds of animals. This is why the West has a prohibition for the import of any animals, fowl, etc. from China. The science of the transfer of virus from animals to humans has been proved. There will be more pandemics originating from China as long as China’s livestock industry is unregulated.
27
Most of the attention has been on Wuhan, the original epicenter of the outbreak. But I'm hearing reports of sizable outbreaks in other cities like the city of Wen Zhou in China's Zhejiang Province. Also today heard that Beijing might be surpassing Wuhan in risk level. Can NYT do more reporting on this development?
52
Taking public transportation, I am suddenly hyper aware and hyper disgusted with how many people rub their noses, put their fingers in their mouths, and cough and sneeze without covering their mouth and nose. Humans have so many different attitudes towards "hygiene" (if it can be called that) that it is maddening. There's also no way of knowing whether people are keeping up with the news, or whether they care. We all have different levels of sensitivity to caution and danger.
28
I had to get chemotherapy last year and became hyper aware of the threats when my immunity was shot. Humans are disgusting. Avoid!
35
@Clarice
Agreed! I needed blood drawn at a lab today and realized too late (after she started juicily coughing without covering her face) that I was seated next to a revolting individual.
10
I've heard the Chinese government under reports mortality rates. That they're handling the pandemic in a similar way the Soviet Union handled Chernobyl.
1 - Deny
2 - Attack anyone heroically trying to deal with the crisis as smear mongers
3 - Admit to a problem only when the west becomes aware something is wrong
4 - Minimize the problem
5 - Convert the catastrophe into an opportunity to praise their government for being great at dealing with crisis situations
55
@Luke "4 - Minimize the problem" - and there are indications that the Chinese government is still not admitting the full scope of infections and deaths.
Aside from speed-building two new hospitals in Wuhan and the lockdown of said city which are drastic actions, look at the transmission of coronavirus among the patients in Bavaria. One person from Wuhan infected six others in an employee training exercise in Germany. Now, it turns out that one of those employees, a 33-year old father, has infected his child (https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-03-20-intl-hnk/h_5832d95702ace0c6863d0b2e3d16d344).
That's an impressive chain of infection. When one keeps in mind the much higher population density in Wuhan, then it becomes almost certain that the level of infection and mortality in Wuhan must be much higher than stated.
31
@Margrethe I've been following YouTube blogs created by expats living in China for the last few years, like SerpentZA and ADVChina. They report that people are routinely bribing their way past quarantine check points in Wuhan. I'm not at all surprised. In alot of countries that's how law enforcement (or lack thereof) works.
16
@Luke
Identical to Individual One's vile tactics.
18
“They found that the genetic makeup of the new virus, temporarily called 2019-nCoV, is 79.5 percent similar to that of the SARS coronavirus — a cousin of Wuhan virus that seems to spread more easily, but is less lethal.”
Is this sentence a mistake? I thought SARS spread less easily but is more lethal?
6
@Law Chun Yin
I think they are referring to the Wuhan virus as spread more easily and less lethal. It should say a “cousin of SARS.” It is a mistake!
3
@Law Chun Yin yes it is a mistake
1
The NYT and Washington Post both recently reported that 10,000 people have died in the U.S. -just in this current flu season. And yet no one is losing their mind about it or stocking up on surgical masks. Why? The numbers are pretty typical and not really newsworthy. I’m going to predict that the exhaustively covered Coronavirus will end up exactly like its’ panic-based predecessors (I.e. SARS, Zika, bird flu, Y2K) -a minor footnote soon forgotten. Or, to put it another way, much ado about nothing.
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I don't think SARS or Zika have been forgotten by public health defenders around the globe. They are the reason you can forget about it.
We in the US have a great opportunity now to ship many 100,000s of masks and hazmat gowns to China during their time of crisis (assuming these supplies were not all sourced from China in the first place and some were actually made in the US). We can then manufacture more here to replenish since the virus will not reach us very quickly. The goodwill this will engender will be substantial and will set the tone for better cooperation on trade laws in the future.
As an aside, we made a big mistake with Russia in not giving them massive aid after the soviet union split up, contingent on anti-corruption milestones, to shape their country. The examples to consider are how we treated Germany after WW1 vs after WW2. The US failed to shape post-breakup Russia, and now we are paying the price. I wish that we Americans could think a few steps ahead in the Chess Game of geopolitics. Being clever and thoughtful wins the day.
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@Will Hogan
Don't forget who our president is. So much for good will.
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@Will Hogan
The president thinks ahead and works with foreign leaders towards an end that benefits....him personally!
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@Will Hogan
I disagree with your priority for our federal gov't to consider [ good will for hypothetical future trade cooperation from China]. Protecting us - the American public - is the primary mandated constitutional priority of our federal gov't. In fact, by upholding the 6th District circuit's decision in Flint v Guertin last month, SCOTUS recognized that the American public has a fundamental constitutional right that is first among equals to "personal security and bodily integrity." Trade and commerce is not even mentioned in the original text of the US Constitution and is way down the list of fedgov't responsibilities added by penumbra rulings.
The Wuhan novel coronavirus is very worrisome because of ease of transmission. New reports suggest that the GI system -feces contact - is a 2nd route of transmission, not just pulmonary cough. It's to early to determine how lethal this novel can be. The Wuhan novel coronavirus now meets WHO's definition of a pandemic because residents in 2+ continents have been infected. IMHO, our federal gov't should ban flights from and to China at this time. Sending supplies like masks should be sent to China through an intermediary border nation as a proactive, health protective measure for Americans' public health benefit, but not for benefit to trade negotiations with China.
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I'm concerned that the CDC web site crew takes weekends off. A lot of people rely on the CDC for information, but this weekend they were out of luck. It didn't get updated until around 10 am today. Also, the site says they only have 82 pending tests, with 6% of the samples tested turning out positive. Given the public health ramifications of missed infections, I'd say they are not testing enough samples! The case definition should be expanded to include sore throat and myalgia and probably diarrhea. The test is not expensive, missed infections are catastrophic.
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@Diane
Missed infections are catastrophic ... 2% of the time.
Please do yourself a favor and just relax.
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Small government is a virtue, according to the Republican Party in power today. The CDC’s is under budgetary constraints and can’t hire enough people to work round the clock in an emergency.
By the way, have you considered the “marketplace” for your health needs?
Try “shopping around” for the “best” information available, at the lowest prices that “free enterprise” can deliver. That will create “jobs, jobs, jobs” for an improved, private contractor CDC.
Oh, and if you’re not satisfied with the contractor’s customer service and unfortunately fall ill, you can fill out a survey online. They “always take customer feedback seriously and will do everything possible to address any quality issues that might arise,” right after reporting earnings to Wall Street, so please wait.
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@Sixofone Actually the repercussions of a missed infection are catastrophic because of the expense and stress of caring for patients they infect in an ICU. In China patients are getting put on ventilators or non-invasive ventilation, and a large number require oxygen. Many require IV fluids, some will get antibiotics and other drugs. Anti-virals are expensive, at least in the U.S., and we don't even know if they work yet. China put at least 3 people on ECMO, which is crazy expensive. The CDC is missing an opportunity here, the positive rate of tests shouldn't be 6%, it should be much lower. They are either not testing enough or are not communicating what they are doing. I'm shocked the CDC can't update their web page on the weekend. I called my senators and state rep about my concerns. I'm personally not afraid of getting infected, I'm afraid our health care system is going to get a stress test and fail. China gave us the information and a huge head start.
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If handwashing is the most recommended way to avoid the virus, would light gloves (or something like that) being changed frequently work?
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The issue is getting virus on your hands from the environment and then transferring it to mucous membranes of eyes, nose or mouth. Gloves would probably only be effective if you don’t touch them to eyes, nose or mouth.
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@Chris Most people will contaminate themselves when they take off their gloves. If you wash the gloves for 20 seconds with soap prior to removal, and after you touch anything, and don't touch your face, they will be effective. Public health folks usually don't recommend them since people tend to skip the hand washing step.
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I have been considering that -- I have a ton of cheap nitrile gloves for painting from Home Depot. I tend to use them once and throw them away. I have also stocked up on hand sanitizer and wipes to use when away from home as most public restrooms where I live -- airports, transit hubs, cinemas, museums, stores, Starbucks, etc. -- have only cold water and little or no soap.
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Why is it that so far, even though the virus has made it onto countless airplanes, only Chinese residents have died?
I find this odd. Anyone else wondering about that?
I mean I understand why ebola was localized because few people fly out of that region, but with the coronavirus, hundreds of people of various nationalities have been on airplanes since it erupted.
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@KA because the outbreak just started weeks ago and Wuhan is where it originated. This outbreak is still only weeks old. We don't know how bad it will get yet.
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@Legendary We're not even certain if the novel Wuhan coronavirus is from a natural source i.e. a 'wet market' in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province, or whether it is a bio-engineered virus that got out from the Chinese government's Wuhan Institute for Virology research lab. There are many 'wet markets' across China. Why haven't the other Chinese provinces been as heavily affected as the Hubei province?
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Anyone else notice the bars on the hospital’s windows?
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@Pat Roy The hospital looks to be largely built using modular trailers, similar to what you see at construction job sites. Those usually have bars on the windows to prevent break-ins.
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@Pat Roy That's to keep the virus trapped inside
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@Pat Roy To prevent break-ins.
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Philippines President Duterte says that only by chance the virus came from China, and that it could have easily incubated outside of China.
That is just wrong.
There are conditions specific to China, such as the live animal markets, that make China the prime breeding ground for these novel pathogens.
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"live animal markets" only present in China?
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@Marc
Live animal markets.
Secretive regime.
Repressive regime.
Nearly full control of the media.
Many densely populated cities.
Though these 5 qualities aren't unique to China, they may combine to a greater degree the conditions necessary for a viral disaster.
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@Sixofone
We have most of that...we'd better make sure we don't allow live animal markets.
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To build a hospital in 10 days and expect it to be up to a standard that prevents further infection and provides care is unthinkable.
I am not sure they have built anything but an incubator for it to infect or an "end of life" care facility.
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@Herry China has for years developed the logistics and management to do a very good job of building large things (apartment complexes, bridges, airports) in a very short time, with three shifts of 8 hours work schedules, plus they are using their army who are well trained to deal with emergencies. Don't be too quick to denigrate.
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@Herry So what is your proposed solution, since the media has already reported on overburdened hospitals with not enough beds? Do we just maintain the status quo?
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They could easily convert the eXisting housing structures, e.g., hotels and empty new apartment buildings, into temp hospitals. But that would not showcase the might of the Chinese building power for the dazzling effect.
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This report is a piece of work to increase the irrational anxiety in the general public by reporting cases that has yet to be confirmed mixed with the confirmed. Making it an INCREASING threats in countries that has not reported any local transmission: the reported cases are from Chinese tourists (probably from Wuhan) who are on their New Year holidays, and all of them are quarantined and isolated by now in those countries. And the US will benefit from this chaos in China, as one of the Trump cabinet members said,
which is more than disgusting to me.
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@Bill Whitehead The report is actually quite tame considering the facts on the ground in mainland China. Have you even considered why every country is closing borders checkpoints, trains, planes, buses, cars and foot travel into and out of mainland China? Perhaps what you are being told isn't entirely correct?
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I see a misrepresentation towards the public. The death rate is being compared to the newly infected count. They say its a 2.2 percent ATM. Lower then The flu(influenza). However, We are at the early stage of this disease. I feel this rate is being misrepresented. The total daily death rate needs to be represented against the total daily patients that survived. So currently China says that so far 475 patients the beat the virus which was stated today and if you take the 362 people who died against the 475 that beat the virus. That percent is extremely alarming. Remember with sars there was 10 percent death rated which was calculated at the end of the viruses run. 800 died and 7200 survived. See my concern
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@Eric
Influenza is 0.1 percent.
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@Eric The number of those surviving reflects the number of people who were severely ill and required hospitalization and recovered. The true number of people infected, including those with mild illness, is unknown. So don’t freak out yet!
4
My dad (a US citizen) is retired, elderly, and lives in HK where he grew up. We can't decide whether he should stay there or if he should fly back to the US for the time being. So many what ifs. What if he gets sick in HK? What if he flies back to the US but there is a sick person on the plane and he is on a flight with the virus for 15 hours? What if he flies back to the US but gets sick anyway? What if, what if. I'm worried sick.
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@SL It is really hard to make decisions about what to do in times of crisis with a new disease like this one, I hope your father stays safe, whatever you decide to do. We are in the Osaka, Japan area, people are getting scared here now and two thirds of people on the trains are wearing masks, it is a bit scary. The Japanese media is trying to pressure Mr. Abe for more protectionist policies....Abe is worried about Japan's world stage moment-the Olympics coming up, and making money for Japan Inc. I think they need to be concerned about average citizens who live in very densely populated areas.
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@SL
This a difficult decision. I hope your father stays safe. For right now, there are 14 confirmed cases so the situation is still okay in Hong Kong. Perhaps thinking about the quality of life that might help to figure it out what to do. Most importantly, it's really about what your father wants to do.
In Hong Kong, after the SARS in 2003, hospitals went through renovations to create 1500 separate units. Many medical staff gained experiences in dealing with the outbreak. General speaking, doctors and nurses are not too terrible in HK. I hope this helps.
1
Please keep in mind that death toll doesn't equal death rate. Its high virulence will result in more deaths, but the mortality rate right now is many, many times lower than that of SARS.
Take a deep breath, everyone. That means you, too, NYT.
5
This will be another depressing week when Duterte is more statesmanlike than the US administration.
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In terms of net gain (births minus deaths), we are adding over 220,000 people to this planet every day, or over 150 people every minute. That equals over 80 million more people every year, about the same as the combined populations of California and Canada.
I wouldn’t worry about us running out of humans, even if this does become a pandemic.
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We won't run out of people or bats. But humans with coronavirus, which may be everyone, will have a shorter life expectancy, if things progress as is. You can look at the upside, social security is saved. Or, you can look at the downside, that retirement plan you worked for is useless.
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@John Tollefson If you're the human negatively impacted by the novel Wuhan coronavirus, then birth rates and net gain statistics are no consolation.
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'China's foreign ministry on Monday sharply criticized the United States for its overall response to the epidemic, saying that it was “creating and spreading fear” instead of helping contain the coronavirus.'
Funny, China failed to contain the virus by not saying a thing (in the beginning), so they sure have a nerve saying anything at all now. (I have to admit though, any country that can build a hospital in 10 days is pretty impressive.)
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@Mary wrote "... I have to admit though, any country that can build a hospital in 10 days is pretty impressive."
It's not really a hospital, but a jail to prevent patients escaping from that place. There are bars on the hospital’s windows. In fact, the military is in charge of operations that tells a lot. I feel sorry for people in Wuhan.
1
How is it that NYTimes, an NYC paper, isn’t mentioning the status of Coronavirus in New York City? NBCNews does. Editors: please include local news in the live updates page!
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I mostly get my info from the Times and believe they have reported that 3 people are hospitalized as suspected cases and more than 100 more are being loosely monitored. They haven't been screaming about it as on local TV, but local TV hasn't been reporting anything new, just asking people on the street what they think about it, showing footage of people in Flushing wearing masks, etc. The city has not released much info on any of the people.
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@Jesse I have always found that it is best to get news (local, national, _and_ international) from several _different_ news sources - by that i refer to "newspapers" and/or their online equivalents. That offers the readers a multiple number of reporters and editors, with multiple editorial policies, to feed local and international news to them. I am _not_ including "broadcast TV news" in the above suggestion, _but_ there is nothing wrong with broadcast TV news as an _additional_ source.
1
The stories coming from Wuhan are terrifying.
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We have trade diplomats who openly suggest that forced labor in China doesn't concur a trade advantage on the Chinese. If we're that stupid on trade nothing China says on the virus outbreak will make any difference.
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This is the third new coronavirus that has emerged, after MERS (2012) and SARS (2002). What will the next coronavirus be like when it appears between 2026 and 2030? And the one after that and the one after that?
3
Does the FLU shot prevent or mitigate the effects of Coronavirus?
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@JimmyJames Unlikely because it has a different mode of entry into lung cells, I would expect and a completely different outer covering. Having had SARS exposure previously would probably help a lot. Possibly exposure to other corona viruses might make a difference.
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@JimmyJames
A vaccine improves adaptive immunity against a single given pathogen, typically a virus or bacteria. The immune system will then recognize and destroy that particular pathogen.
But a vaccine against the flu virus has no effect on another kind of virus. It's like trying to open different locks with the same key.
Note that flu shots are also ineffective (or at least not as effective) against a different mutation of the flu virus: the virus evolves each year and the vaccine does not necessarily match the circulating strain. The more similar the vaccine is to the actual virus, the most effective it will be.
Note also that a virus is not necessarily lethal by itself. It can also reduce the immune system efficiency to a point that the body is exposed to bacteria that are usually harmless.
14
What are they "disinfecting" in all these photos? Viruses can't be killed.
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@Second try failed sure they can. Chlorine will kill anything by oxidation, and a strong enough acid will work too
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@Second try failed
Viruses can't be killed with antibiotics, but they CAN be killed.
18
Chlorine does not kill giardia
1
Hats off to South Korea to send 2 millions facial masks, 1 million surgical masks and thousands of protective suits to Wuhan. Chinese people will appreciate your goodwill and be thankful for your humanitarian effort in time of hardship.
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Even most of our high quality face surgical masks come from......China! Don’t get silly. They can ramp up production on more any time they want to do so. What you should be worried about is us running out of them. We do make our own hand sanitizers and disinfectant soaps, thankfully.....
I went to a health practitioners office today. They had a box at the check in window for anyone needing one in the waiting room who had a cough, flu, or the cold. Do not believe those who tell you they do not work. Nothing is perfect, but most health experts agree they are helpful if you use them properly.
4
The US is working to contain it, by restricting travelers from the epicenter of the virus. That’s the only way to stop it from spreading.
Kudos to the administration. I never thought I’d say that.
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@PP
We have reached a sad state of affairs when we start Thanking our government for doing what it should be doing as a matter of routine business. That’s what they are elected to do and for which we pay taxes. The GOP is training the citizens to expect nothing and to be grateful when the government does what any sane government would ordinarily do. That’s not to say I don’t say Thank You to a government employee when they perform a routine service for me, DMV etc.
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@PP
Actually banning travel is the most idiotic and counterproductive thing you can do - and that's a fact. Look up the literature of the worlds experience with trying to contain an infectious disease by closing down the border.
I the real world what happens is that people who desperately want to come home to their families will find a way to get back. However, the authorities have no idea that these people have come back nor whether they have been infected (or are infectious). So instead of being held in quarantine and closely monitored for illness, they are running around infecting others. You don't need to have watched to many horror movies to understand why that is a very bad thing.
6
Except it is wrong. Public health experts say that travel bans do not work - people find a way around them. Instead what bans do is deter people from reporting - which is what is absolutely critical.
5
“In the face of the public health crisis, countries should work together to overcome the difficulties and not shift one’s troubles onto others, let alone take advantage of people’s precarious position,” Hua Chunying, a ministry spokeswoman, said in a regularly scheduled briefing that, because of the epidemic, was held online...”
Yunno, it’s not like the authorities in China have been honest / forthcoming about this mess from the very beginning. They’ve obfuscated and minimized from the get-go (much like SARS) and look where we’re all at now.
Why would anybody place complete trust in the people running the show in China?
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The people running the show in China are more trustworthy than those running it in the United States, because there the chief executive of the United States has lied 16,000 times since taking office, with the support of the governing party.
I’d say the Chinese are much, much more trustworthy than the Americans at the point.
The Chinese today have their nation’s best interest at heart, while more than half of Americans today have their skin color- and nose shape-defined tribe’s best interest at heart.
8
Yasser, that would be a big no. Everything you say about Trump is true. But don’t confuse that with most in our government and don’t be ignorant of China’s well known and very long history regarding abusing its own people. And I don’t mean only by being untruthful to them....
8
@Yasser Taima wrote "...The people running the show in China are more trustworthy than those running it in the United States..."
It's easy for you to say that because you're living in California. People here in Hong Kong are petrified. No one believes that the Chinese government is honest, giving the history of the Chinese Communist Regime on handling and lying about SARS in 2003. The WHO sent inspectors to Beijing to check their quarantine facilities. The Communist China had claimed it had no SARS cases, so when the inspectors arrived, all the SARS patients were taken out of hospitals and driven around in ambulances while the inspections took place. The plan was to lie to the WHO.
In Hong Kong, the SARS outbreak was at its most serious in March of 2003, a month after the Chinese New Year. Four months earlier, in early December, some news outlets had reported that in a couple of towns in Southern Guangdong, all supplies of bleach had been sold out in days. SARS had been around for at least four months before it was identified.
This is likely the case. China lies.
If you've not lived in the Communist China, you would never understand what is like here. Don't make the mistake of thinking that the Chinese Communist Regime and the US are morally equivalent. One is a democracy (notwithstanding Trump) and the other is a vicious dictatorship, Emperor Xi, that observes no bounds in asserting its power.
You’re welcome to move to the mainland China.
2
Virus is effecting over 70% of Males --say stats ???
71% of cases were male.
The WHO, in its FAQs, addresses the question: "Does the new coronavirus affect older people, or are younger people also susceptible?" by answering that:
People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
@john
More males than females in China on average. Could also simply be biased based on source and exposures at this point. No way to know without relevant data sets to evaluate and seems more conspiracy theory than relevant. I doubt a virus like this discriminates on gender itself.
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@john I believe you may well of stumbled across a piece of research that was carried out on the first 99 patients in Wuhan that did produce a bias to more males that female. Could be explained by more male market workers exposed than female at the initial outbreak. If it wasn't that early study then could I have a link please to the new statistics you have seen
5
@john Like SARS, 2019-nCoV is more lethal in older people. SARS reportedly didn't kill anyone under 24 years of age, but over 60 it had a 50% mortality. I'm guessing mortality will be higher in China on account of worse baseline air pollution. Good time to quit smoking.
3
Well, you can't expect them to be thrilled about the US when Ross, figuratively speaking, all but danced a jig on the graves of the dead.
China is certainly a rival, but not an enemy. It does behoove us to generously offer aid, support and collaboration in dealing with this disease though I admit that I do favor closing the border. Even if this turns out not to be the Big One, a terrible pandemic *will* come and unless we learn how to work together, we are basically doomed. Wet markets or not, the Earth is becoming so densely populated with humans that zoonotic disease is all but inevitable.
65
A little math:
SARS killed 6.0% of those infected
To Date, New Coronavirus has killed 2.0% of those infected
Yearly, Influenza kills about 0.10% of those infected
This is why we need to worry.
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@M Horowitz
Influenza infects more people in one hour than this virus has infected in its first two months. There is nothing to suggest that this virus will infect more than at most a few hundred people in the US - so its a nothing event for the general population. Lightning strikes will have killed more people than this virus, when it's all over.
3
@M Horowitz
A wider perspective, CDC data:
SARS Nov 2002-June 2003, over 24 countries, 8096 infections, 774 deaths, mortality rate 9-10%.
2019 nCorV , Feb 4,2020., 20,623 confirmed cases, 20438 in China, 425 deaths (90-95% in epicenter Wuhan), outside China 24 countries, 185 cases with 2 deaths 1 in Philippine and i in Kong Kong infected from Wuhan, mortality rate 2-3%.
Influenza USA affects 5-20% population annually, death range between 12,000 to 56,000 annually , 2018 80,000 deaths. current flu season over 10,000 deaths, mortality rate 0.1%-0.5%.
1
Too bad that China is a country that has a bad habit of hiding or distorting the truth to retain social control. They cannot alter natural acts nor alter what has happened. Their deceptions delay addressing problems like this pandemic.
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@Casual Observer
Kind of like the US and other governments, especially since late January 2017.
15
Editors: I love the chart for "How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors" and the fact you repost it. I have discussed it with friends who have also seen it. It's a great quick visual way to understand it and put it in all in perspective. Thank you for reposting it daily!
21
NYTimes - can you please find and publish demographic information about the patients who have died? What was the median age? And the 44yr old man who died, did he have other problems or was he otherwise healthy? This will say a lot about who needs to worry. Normally healthy people from 16-60 do not succumb to the flu or typical respiratory infections
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@Brad Burns Over 70% are Male says W.H.O.
Do a search for thier stats.
1
@Brad Burns More men than women, older over the age of 55, had chronic medical condition like smoking related lung disease, heart failure etc.
Both NEJM and Lancet have the articles free access. You might go their websites.
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@Brad Burns
From the available published data, majority of the death are elderly age over 65 with underlying medical issue in particular diabetes, heart disease.
5