The CDC estimates up to 26,000,000 flu cases this season in the USA alone – resulting in up to 25,000 deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
If flu got a fraction of the coverage our hysterical media now devotes to Coronavirus, the same way they over-hyped Ebola Fever in 2014, maybe people would take greater care about influenza.
https://emcphd.wordpress.com
5
China is larger than that!
China’s economy is already about four trillion dollars larger than the U.S. economy, according to the World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD
Currently my town is locked down, government vehicle circles about telling all to stay home not to visit and this during the New Year period when there is a traditional order if visits: close family, distant family, close friends, others. Peer out the window and infrequently see individual aimed for the super market; that’s it.
Multiply that by a very very large number and then extent into following week (s). Imagine putting that country back in action and complexities abound.
Good Luck World Economy you will need the help.
All because of one polluted market in Wuhan; not two one.
Hurry biochemist find a cure
I remember the SARS scare. It was later found to have been concocted in a Chinese lab. The same thing happened with the Swine flu back in the 1970's. Mike Wallace went to one of the manufacturers of the vaccine and did a 60 minutes show with the surprise visit. The vaccine was causing gulliane barr syndrome. The manufacturer knew it was doing that but did not recall until 1000's of people had been injured. The Ebola virus was also concocted in a CDC lab. Now this coronavirus has been found to contain HIV components in it. It was also concocted in a Chinese lab. The question is, why is the news media not reporting on that? In my opinion, this is a set up to force all of us to take a vaccine that will not have been tested because of the urgency. I have said this before, quit allowing the news media to control you. Do your own research on these issues.
After a global nuclear holocaust by many nations sending their nuclear bombs simultaneously, the results will be harmful to humans. Nuclear fallout will then be carried by prevailing winds all over the world, and come down by rain. Who is to say that the Wuhan Coronavirus will not spread similarly?
@manoflamancha
Do a little reading on how virus spread.
You will need to be in the vicinity of a person inflicted who coughs. This virus was spread to people who never saw The Market by people who appeared healthy before all began wearing masks --- thus the concern of quarantining possible carriers.
Viruses are not alive to wander about.
1
@manoflamancha
Because nuclear fallout and a corona-virus are not the same things.
1
Now we are finally getting down to what the Chinese Red Nobility and the global 1% really care about - the money! They don't care a whit about how many 1000's, millions, 100's of millions or billions die, because this or a more deadly emergent pathogen as long as they are safe in their air filtered high rise apartments and mansions and villas on the hills around LA and the world's major cities and continue to make trillions due to their open borders access to the 'global labor pool' of no rights slave workers either overseas or imported as slave wage immigrants. Remember a few years ago the head of our CDC (some medical degree holding professional) actually said he recommended against closing the borders in the vicinity of the Ebola outbreak which killed many thousands because ... "it might cost some people some money" in interrupted cross border trade. Definitely in that case black lives didn't matter, but we're not supposed to notice. Also at the time it was being discussed that this emergent still evolving disease with a 95% mortality rate might go pneumonic - be very easily transmissible and our greedy leaders were still allowing people infected into the USA where they infected nurses treating them. Oh, and by the way all containers arriving in the USA are still not being checked for nuclear devices let alone invasive species. That really proves that our 1% think of the rest of us only as pawns and cannon fodder for their God like ambitions and accumulation of wealth.
Everybody is an expert Monday morning QB.
There are the doomsday and then the it'll all back bounce in a quarter and all is well believers. Let's see, how right all the experts were in predicting where the world would be at the end of 2019 at the beginning of 2019, LOL.
China is a huge elephant in the room in driving demand and also making stuff. I'll take Apple as the example, read Tim Cooks forecast, seriously has he any ability to do much. His whole supply chain is in the far East, he has no ability to meaningfully move any production out China. That same goes for so many other business. They all talk a wishful talk, they really have no clue to how this will pan out. No different than the market up 200 points one day, down 600 points another, like anyone can predict.
Now is the time between greed and fear and those who choose smartly or lucky can either get rich or lose a lot!
1
The rise of China is paid for by blood and sweat of hard working Chinese workers, carefully managed by Chinese technocrats. Chinese determination to correct the hundred years of national humiliation is something hard to match in scale and emotional depth by China's competitor. They are just a bunch of whiners, mostly too complacent or lazy to get their hands dirty. Chinese workers have been subsidizing their higher living standard and easy life for some time. Perhaps it is coming to an end soon than later. This coroavirus is just a warning shot.
2
@Observer
You really need tto visit China. 800 million people moved out of poverty shows if you know where to look. Every time I take a bus to a city 3 hours away I see one after another new houses built in recent time, many financed by immigrant workers who post earning home.
It's a booming economy for those at the top but also for the working class. Unlike other places you may know.
1
Why isn't the US press reporting the breakthrough by three Italian scientists (all women) who have ISOLATED THE CORONAVIRUS which is the first step to developing a vaccine?
It is all over the world news and has been most of the day.
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/02/02/breaking-breakthrough-for-deadly-coronavirus-as-italian-scientists-isolate-sequence-of-disease/#.XjhfoWhKjIU
https://www.euronews.com/video/2020/02/02/italian-scientists-isolate-dna-sequence-of-coronavirus
https://newsobservatory.com/coronavirus-after-france-the-virus-isolated-in-italy/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jy3q-hMipA
Why isn't this being reported to the American people? It is neither a cure nor a vaccination, but it is remarkable progress is record time by researchers who worked day and night (literally) after two cases showed up at the hospital they work at in Rome. These women deserve the Nobel Prize for Science this year, and all of our thanks.
And a story in the NY Times.
6
A virus can’t be ”pneumonialike.” A virus is an organism. Pneumonia is an infection. This may seem like a distinction that is not important. However, errors like this undermine the credibility of the NYT and make me wonder if other mistakes are being made.
1
The virus has killed about 300 people in the epicenter, Wuhan, mostly elderly, without any prior warning. This a city of 11.8 million people, located in country in 1.5 billion people. However, the Times implies this "lethal pandemic" will spread to the U.S. and somehow be far worse. Where is the logic and rationality?
1
If it spreads to the US and wipes out the population of both nations, climate change would be solved. Look on the bright side!
1
Hats off to South Korea to send 2 millions facial masks, 1 million surgical masks and thousands of protective suits to Wuhan. Chinese people will appreciate your goodwill and be thankful for your humanitarian effort in time of hardship.
2
The issue becomes whether there will be a recession globally. All I want is for China to be punished for their sloppy health standards that for the third time in 20 years are threatening the World. They prefer to avoid dealing with health threats without losing face. That certainly does not work. They are always found out and they look stupid in the process.
4
And the greatest threat to the world, according to doomsday wonks at united nations, that are drinking cognac, eating caviar and smoking cuban cigars is global warming.
1.5 billion in China, everyone that has been infected in China, much less wordwide is insignificant.
Doomsday democrats are praying for a recession in the US to give them a platform for arguing the President Trumps economic successes is unsustainable.
1
Ah, globalization, the gift that just keeps giving.
4
If Republicans get their way, we may soon have in this country the kind of dictatorship that allows for building a thousand bed hospital in ten days. But, it's much likely that they will use that capacity to build walls to keep out mostly harmless immigrants, prisons to house misdemeanor offenders, and re-education camps for "dissidents" and the "enemies of the people" such as the free-press.
3
The main reason that the Coronavirus is affecting global markets so much is because of fear-mongering articles like this one.
Readers should reflect on the fact that, in the US in 2019-2020 flu season so far, according to the CDC, there have been 10,000 deaths and 180,000 hospitalizations; not one of these was definitely due to Coronavirus.
I'm way more scared of a second Trump administration taking away all our rights, healthcare, Medicare, and Social Security.
370
@Eric H1N1 that killed 285 thousand people according to another nytimes article ( and is responsible for most of flu deaths every year in US) started as a swine flu in Mexico. Every year we see bird flus that can easily mutate and contaminate people surging around the world and it doesn't generate a new pandemia by luck. The corona virus is serious because it was created in a big city in the largest holliday in China that causes a lot of people to travel.
29
Can't agree more. This is the consequence of rapid economy growth from the many US / EU companies and consumers who are more than willing to earn more and/or spend lesser by paying sweatshop prices and leeching off low cost, unskilled, labour. China is just one of the many of these "high risk" countries. Most of these countries are also classified as emerging economies that offers similar sweatshop packages. As much as one can blame the Chinese government for not managing the hygiene and local culture, I think one should point the finger at the companies and consumers first.
35
@Ted Morton I get your point. But the issue here it not one of deadliness of the virus. This is a question of ability of healthcare systems to handle sudden influx of very large number of patients. No country is equipped for that and hence the precautions.
29
If each person infects 2.6 people then how many people need to wear masks in order to stop the outbreak?
If R_0 < 1 then the epidemic burns itself out. I am sure there is a better probability distribution that accounts for super-spreaders or where to ideally distribute masks. But I think a naive analysis also shows a better way to contain it.
For R_o = 0.999 then 0.999/2.6 = 0.384 = 38.4% can be left susceptible to the virus. That means if 61% of people who are not infected wear masks then that is enough to break this epidemic.
If only the people infected are wearing masks to prevent the spread of disease then to get R_o = 0.999, 61% of the infected group (which is much smaller) should wear masks. To stop asymptomatic spread that would include 61% of the group with a degree of separation from a known carrier. Unless the spread is much more infectious due to asymptomatic carriers.
A double layer of bandannas that individually captures 85% of particles would be the equivalent of an N95 mask, assuming it also tied snuggly enough to create a seal against the face.
My point is a full quarantine is unnecessary. If about half the population is under quarantine and the other half is wearing masks is likely more than enough to stop this epidemic. I think China should start relaxing their quarantine. Start small, but still ask those sick or caring for the sick to self-quarantine and let those who are healthy support the supply chains and infrastructure.
1
Is the article IMPLYING at a potential BLACK SWAN event? The financial markets in the forms of derivatives, futures, options, co mingling industrial metal, oil interest rates, currencies and national and corporate debt. If production is significantly interrupted and revenues already baked in to stock prices can we have a signification melt down in asset prices until buyers and sellers find a market. An event of this scales would lead the FED and other national banks paralyzed. Best find a cure to this 'plague' and save lives and even capital.
1
First, treat nature better China / animals especially in this case. And let’s accept that this is very much Darwinian - it’s certainly not rocket science that this virus has hatched and finding its lifeline amongst the human race who could have easily prevented it via sheer respect for other living things.
5
The sub-heading refers to exponential growth. This is something the public in general doesn't seem to understand. When I hear comparisons to the number of deaths yearly from the ordinary flu to current deaths by a pandemic even some news articles fall short. These articles suggest, though may not outright state a linear uphill slope, a stepwise projection. They also ignore things about how exponential growth of a virus is tied to mutation rate. So articles saying that there's "still" little room for panic seem ignorant of how things work.
We need schools that teach excellent math and science. There is no substitute for this in todays world, if we are talking about exponential growth in the global economy, or in a virus. What does this mean, what are the implications?
In an accompanying front page story, there's a photo of a Chinese hospital being built in 10 days. 1000 beds. Image the scope of an economy that can do that after so short a time from being destitute. That has something to do with this exponential economic growth.
Interesting, too, that there's a presidential candidate running on a MATH platform. The acronym means Make America Think Again. The slogan makes sense. We need future citizens who understand exponential growth of all kinds. And other phenomena of the world today that defy intuitive logic.
3
A friend at the super bowl party I was at last night said that Friday he'd picked up at the airport his sister and her spouse, flying in from Shanghai. Needed to get home before there wasn't a way to get home. Upon landing, no screening, no authorities taking temperatures. Walked off the plane, grabbed their bags, into the car and down the road. Way too easy given the circumstances.
5
"No one knows how long the coronavirus outbreak will last, how far it will spread, or how many lives it will claim. "
This paper published a rational article yesterday ["How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors"] so this statement seems unnecessarily inflammatory.
According to that article, nCov 2019 is at least as infectious as the flu or a common cold, i.e., worldwide infection is inevitable. On the other hand, the lowest fatality rate estimate is 0.1%, which the only same as seasonal flu. The top fatality rate estimate is 30 times that, or 3%. That percentage is not written in stone, it depends on a rational non-panicked response, and such details as a supply of anti-viral medication.
Most of the economic effect in China so far has been a result of the quarantine efforts, which appear to have miserably, and have possibly caused more harm then good through lack of basic services and healthy food, as well as hoarding of food and medical supplies.
I expect China will realize their mistakes, at the same time as the number of immune young people who have passed through the disease safely enable a more rational approach, not so different from that of a bad flu year.
This effects will be a blip for China. There is a bigger danger in that that international markets may be overpriced and over leveraged, and this could trigger a crash, but that is a different problem.
I'd like to think that Jared could read a few books and solve this thing ...
... but probably what we need is a publically funded, not-for-profit, global system for fast development of emergency vaccines.
It's madness to rely solely on the private sector vaccine development (which involves private cost-benefit analysis) and quarantines as the sole responses to matters of public safety.
This coronavirus might not combine lethality of SARS with transmission rates of the flu ... but the next one might.
5
"As New Coronavirus Spread, China's Old Habits Delayed Fight " had details why the virus outbreak generates panic around the world. Somehow is more worse than Chernobyl which was limited in Russia
2
Coronavirus may not only be an economic test, but also a test of government effectiveness, which we may lose. The Coronavirus incubation period is unknown but it appears capable of growing at exponential rates, so that two cases become four, eight, and then thousands, etc. Here, however, the local government response (as CDC's early response) seems to be, "don't worry, the cases all came from abroad," rather than vigorously tracking and isolating contacts until we know the incubation period.
If the U.S. ends up in China's position, it won't be able to build hospitals in ten days, as China did. We can't even manage to fill potholes. Here in the U.S., (poorer) people who may be exposed won't be able to stay home, because we lack the social safety to support them. Thus, the virus will spread.
If the impeachment "argument" is a guide, as cases multiply, we will form 50-50 camps of those supporting action and those opposing it, each side hurling ad hominem barbs over Twitter, dithering while the world burns. Trump will announce how very-very-very great his response is. The Republicans will shower us with comments about how Obama, Obamacare, and maybe Hillary's emails caused the outbreak to spread. Democrats will wring their hands, shake their fists, and announce their disappointments, but won't make a winning case for effective action.
Coronavirus may show: we have become like dinosaurs.
6
The article didn’t mention China now supplies us with most of our pharmaceutical ingredients and they supply us with most of our masks.
10
This pandemic started in Wuhan when Chinese consume exotic animals. I would just ask China, why is it not extremely illegal to sell and consume exotic (or even feral cats and dogs) animals?
3
Excuse me people, but can you all (and especially you, GOVERNMENTS / BUSINESSES and "LEADERS") now at least BEGIN to see that we simply cannot plunder and shaft the environment and expect no consequences. This "kick the can down the road" mentality is no longer feasible, it is only the mass of humanity that is getting shortchanged in the end ! Look what is happening now, in real time no less, thanks to turning a blind eye to environmental abuse. Sooner or later people will not be able to function if the environment they depend on cannot, or will not, sustain them due to collective casual and callous treatment of it. Where will your "forever growth" be if half of the people are too sick to get out of bed and get to produce, produce, produce, and the other half of the people are too sick to get out bed and go spend, spend spend ?!
This coronavirus is clearly a warning sign. Keeping doing the same status quo will only mean more global pandemics, on top of very real threats to land (cities and agriculture) posed by climate change. What has been predicted might only even be the tip of the iceberg of calamities that could unfold if heed is not paid to be moving with the environment and the natural world, rather than against it !
11
I try and be an independent thinker but on this either I am woefully ignorant or there is an incongruence here.
In my lifetime, I have never seen a government do what China is doing right now. A self-interested selfish regime has willingly shut its own borders to keep its citizens inside. They are doing this despite catastrophic economic consequences, why exactly? Because they are so concerned about other people? Since when?
China has quietly and passively allowed airlines to suspect flights UNTIL APRIL, borders to close, cruise ships to cancel. To me, I think this signal that they know "this is no flu". So for anyone still saying "but the flu blah blah blah" stop. No country behaves this way because of the flu.
I would instead point it to the incredible coincidence of the work at the Wuhan Institute of Virology which 1) was cited with safety concerns in 2017 and 2) was reportedly studying the novel bat coronoavirus last year.
I would also say to do watch what is being done and not what is being said for a good indicator on where the risks lie for us.
I commend the NYT for its reporting. I fear this is a slow moving train wreck heading our way.
13
We'd better get moving on a vaccine so the Chinese can steal it.
4
So it's okay for China to put in place border controls on their own population but NOT for the U.S.???
6
What? Where is the no borders crowd now?
5
Frightening that Trump is claiming this is under control, again saying different from the CDY and World Health .Org. His lying this time could kill people who think he’s right.
4
I contracted SARS from Yale students in my downtown New Haven apartment building after they returned from a spring break.
The trouble with such pandemics is that local health care providers aren't always up to speed on them or think we could be media attention dramatics. My M.D. had the idea it was SARS but didn't think I could have gotten it as I hadn't traveled anywhere in the previous weeks and there was no news about it among the Yale students.
Nevertheless even as an asthmatic I came out of it OK.
5
Anyone thinking about revising our obsession with shopping and consumption? All that plastic garbage we are dumping in the oceans? Think about it. Read a book. Take your dog for a longer walk. Shop at the Good Will Thrift Store. Several years ago I was able to bu a Harris Tweed overcoat for 2.00 USD - and that was half-off because it was a RED TAG sale day. A full-length Harris twee overcoat, like 600.00 USD, new. And it was warm. We should never let a good crisis go to waste.
12
@SB — Note: that plastic the size of Texas floating on the ocean, it’s not visible from space, so “they” changed the definition of the composition to micro plastic invisible to the human eye.
With today's technology there is no question that we live in a truly interconnected global world with the internet and high speed transportation making everyone (almost) within 24 hrs of every other living creature on the planet. This latest coronavirus epidemic is just a continuation of what has happened over millennia, from the Biblical plagues to the Black Death in the Middle Ages to the almost total annihilation of NativeAmerican peoples with the arrival of the disease carrying Europeans in the 15-16th centuries. We now have the scientific knowledge to stop epidemics at their start. But does our political sophistication match what we need to heal our ecosystem or will we continue to elect ignorant, delusional, egocentrics who think they alone can cure all the world's ills?
3
Maybe this crisis will affect Chinese policy and practice regarding import and murder of hundreds of millions of exotic animals for no less than superstitious reasons. Pangolin shells, tiger bones, rhinoceros horn, bear bile, seahorse, helmeted hornbill, shark fin, sea turtles, elephants- the list is long of endangered species they slaughter mindlessly, heedlessly and often supporting illegal trade.
These practices may not be directly related to the current crisis, but eating animals alive, not having food protection policies and hewing to a past that is unhealthy for people and the planet, as well as being cruel to living creatures needs to change. Maybe they will get the message.
9
Global warming has just become global WARNING.
3
Fascinating that a teeny tiny thing such as a virus could bring the world’s economy to it’s knees.
Life (human and otherwise) on this blue planet is become more fragile everyday.
6
This is what happens when you let neo-liberals, both Democrats and Republicans, permit the off-shoring of American production to China. You run a real risk of supply chain disruption and you destroy the American middle class.
5
Anyone interested in being informed should watch the Netflix documentary-series, “Pandemic.” It’s intelligent and thoughtful. I found it disturbing that once again....the Trump administration has CUT funding to the CDC and other programs that prepare America for a pandemic and the companies doing research to stop a ....pandemic!
We’ve got to elect Congressional Representatives and a POTUS who believe in funding Science and research!
130
I don’t believe trump even has a science advisor as all the Presidents I remember have had. But he does have a sharpie. Vote 2020 as your life does depend on it
32
@Rebecca
I think our lives do depend on it.
I agree, everyone please - Vote Blue.
8
@Mari Of course In a short time if the virus continues to spread the left will blame the whole thing on Trump .
1
This article is a fear mongering “what if” salad bowl. I am no fan of China, however I suspect they will figure out how to get the machine of their economy fired back up in short order. Global impact - unnoticeable in 2 weeks.
But I’ve been wrong before.
1
@Dr R
Most airlines in the US and worldwide just suspended flights to China UNTIL APRIL.
2
Nature has fired another warning shot across our bow. Coronavirus may not be the one that devastates humankind. But it should remind us that one day there will be one that will devastate us.
After all, how long can China keep growing at 5-6%? That is doubling in 12-14 years, 125 to 250-fold in a century. Really? With what resources? And what will be left of the countries along the New Silk Road?
All this, without even factoring in climate change. Look out the door and you may see the Piper coming down the road, looking to be paid.
13
Imagine that after The SARS epidemic China had declared open air markets for live birds,feral animals and pigs an inevitable threat to human health. They would have tested every source for the virus, culled infected animals , and banned shipment of live animals to large concentrated metropolitan markets.
The parallel to the AIDS epidemic is apt. The quick consumption of infected fresh monkey meat and the transport of surpluses to cities by way of paved highways made a world wide epidemic possible.
Age old cultures resist change and protect their traditions. Until China modernizes its food production, processing, and transport, this epidemic will not be the last. Recall that it all began with Hong Kong flu , asian Flu, swine flu and avian flu in the mid twentieth century. The eventual solution for these outbreaks is rigorous application of modern public health measures. An epidemic prevented by rigorous pure food laws, and elimination of live animal transport will needs no treatment
5
Yes, and China is more than capable of such action and chose not to take it. They have just slaughtered a billion hogs in the wake of preventable disease.
Their dictatorship wants showpiece projects, not actual progress. Like democracy, for example. Or sanitation. Or compassion and ethics towards animals other than their feigned adoration of pandas.
3
Who remembers when the governor of Texas, Rick Perry and Sarah Palin stood on the Gulf shore and sought to pray away the BP oil spill?
This will be no differenti. Instead of accepting the science that explains and might correct the phenomena, the GOP and it's president will stick their heads in the place they sit on, and insist that it is out of human control, because if it were, money would need to be be diverted.
15
Fascinating. I suppose the prayer was worth the experiment. God knows we will need everything we’ve got, and prayer too, to stop climate change.
I wish it had worked.
2
@Bohemian Sarah
The prayer was worth exactly what every entreaty to any god or spirit is worth. And had exactly the same effect.
@Jackson
The rejection of science, whether in relation to a
catastrophic virus or any catastrophic event, is dangerous. Especially when those in charge participate.
My microbiology professor was correct. "We are at war with the microbes and, eventually, they will win." Cunning little critters, ain't they? Evolving and jumping species like that.....
11
Oh it's true that a virus must show its passport to border guards before it gets into the country on the surface of the wheels of a roller-blade. So this is a Chinese problem. Also, a country with a flu virus loses all its factories in 6 months to wood-rot, and goes back to the Stone Age.
So all US roller-blade wheels will henceforth be produced in Holler Hollow, TN, which is sprayed nightly with antiseptic (the whole village) and with anti-wood-rot, so that we can never see interruption of chain of supply and billionaires can clip their bonds in their south-pacific spa destinations. - signed, Jared & Ivanka
2
The next time you worry about the TSA and your baggage just remember that bush meat from primates and other exotic animal flesh parts are commonly found as contraband in airports.Border security ,including at the Mexican border exists also to protect Americans from epidemic diseases.Last,in China ,outside the manufacturing centers ,tens of millions live in destitution without sanitation or clean water,refrigeration ect.Animal butchering of every kind known to man is done and kept outside open to contamination.Known to be the origin of the HIV virus in Africa wild animal butchering of primates without sanitation ect. and continues to this day.
6
What is our so called leader, criminal trump, doing NOTHING. He’s too busy thinking about which leader or country is going to do his dirty work for next election.
7
Blaming China for the virus out break is very unfair, however, their first reaction to the problem amplified that disaster. The simple reason of it was their totalitarian governmental system characterized among others by the lack of free speech. China’s government controls everything and in spite of improved standard of living the Chinese citizens are scared of voicing their opinions. During the last decades all world efforts to make China democratic failed. Not long time ago President Xi announced himself a leader for life, which had surprisingly weak response in the democratic world. In spite of wishful thinking of many and the famous phrase that I have heard from friends “we need to work together” the threat of huge (1.3 trillion) totalitarian regime is real. China slowly craws into many European countries for example by buying into sixty biggest high-tech companies in Sweden or owning strategically important sea port in Greece,etc. The human right abuses have been ignored by many west European countries, which are short of cash exhausted by the blown out social system or subsidizing their clean energy. Being careful not to antagonize the benefactor they choose to be oblivions to the threat that the totalitarian China poses to the world. I wish that all the civilized world would become more aware and exert pressure to help the world as well as Chinese people.
4
For those who have never witnessed a black swan event, watch this space. Who predicted the accelerated events in 1989 which radically transformed the world in ways unforeseen ?
4
If the Coronavirus outbreak happens in a small and less developed country, this virus will be stopped easily before it spreads to other countries. On the other hand, China is a big country and people travel during the Lunar New Year. And increasingly Chinese middle class travels beyond their borders to foreign countries during the long holidays. Thus, it is hard to stop unless drastic measures such as closing down cities with iron fists.
Global economy will be affected by this temporary Chinese slow down. But it will also rebound fast due to the recovery process led by the dynamic Chinese work force and centralized government actions. In some ways, Chinese economy policy is more capitalistic than US. Thus, it will push their productivity and innovation to recover better than before.
18
@Usok The Beijing Government has controlled the state owned business, some of which are related to the PLA and pushed the private enterprisers like Alibaba to hand the shares to the central government. Most of listed corporation must have a member of communist party in the board of directors. I doubt if it is the more capitalistic than that if the USA you mentioned.
7
China is so integral to the global economiy that any halt in its production quotas for supply chain parts, or assembly, is bound to have a major impact.
Last week a Paul Krugman opinion piece explained China's role, in response to a rather flip remark from Wilbur Ross who reasoned that manufacturing would return to the US, in effect seeing a silver lining to a world health crisis.
The Ross statement made about as much sense as the moon is made of green cheese. While some companies can quickly transfer their purchases of parts, and other supply chain resources to other Asian countries (labor has to be cheap!), it's not so simple to rearrange your business production sources on a dime.
And if what you purchase from China is assembly of your smart phones, that will do great damage to your company.
An potentially volatile economic year just got more so. To follow this crisis, check a variety of sources and discount what you hear from Wilbur Ross.
144
@ChristineMcM As if we didn't already have enough trouble with Trump & Co., get ready for the greatest gaslighting about our economy since Bush in 2008. If you would believe the political pundits, Trump is running on two planks: white grievance and the supposedly strong economy. Should the latter falter... ruh-roh!
23
@ChristineMcM
So now the expensive iPhone as well as other Apple products and Nike sneakers will cost more.
Isn't every year a potentially volatile economically according to Krugman and other pundits? Eventually one day they (meaning more than one person and not the PC binary singular misuse of "they") may be right...
3
China has modernized rapidly and played aggressively on the world stage with its manufacturing and also opening some of its markets to imports.What it has not done is establish two independent agencies like the CDC to work on public health and be the voice of medical emergencies and the FDA which works to keep food and drugs safe and regulated.Their centrally managed government does not allow for independent voices of agencies which can help protect the population with reliable information-their censorship may seem to suit their goals but this time they were ill served by the coronavirus cover-up-they are about to learn a very costly lesson about secrecy-a rapidly spreading disease cannot be kept secret-not even in a tightly controlled,economy.
66
@JANET MICHAEL
A structural difference to consider between China and the US. China could, if it wished, rapidly impose structures that serve the public good, like CDC and FDA. Under the current US leadership, we have been "choosing" to reduce regulations and oversight in the name of "free markets". But "free markets" alone don't work very well for public goods like clean air, clean water, and prevention or management of diseases.
189
@JANET MICHAEL Remind me: how long did officials at all levels of government cover up the contamination of the water supply in Flint, Michigan? Human nature, especially political human nature, is the same the world over. It’s only when ordinary people start dying that officials are forced to act (and really only when officialdom has run out of plausible deniability).
25
To be purely pragmatic what the Chinese govt. needs to do is create analogues of these agencies (copy them…) and give them the power to override local officials and party heads. Have them only answerable to the Central committee or even just the President/inner circle. Effectively have the Plague Secret Police who treat possible emergent diseases as threats to the State.
6
Perhaps now we can finally disabuse ourselves of the myth that presidents can be credited - or blamed - for the state of the economy. Coronavirus has the potential to overwhelm any efforts world leaders may take to support their economies.
13
Republican presidents are never credited with good economy. So the problem is already partially solved.
1
@no pretenses -- That is because Republican Presidents are usually ruining the economy with rapacious policies.
8
@no pretenses Obama had to pull us out of the recession caused by Republican presidents
4
The current situation really shows why "The trade war waged by the Trump administration..." has been a total farce. A disinformation campaign. And everybody in the investment community seemed to know it, or at least sense it. One look at the S&P 500 for the past year shows that all during the so-called 'trade war', the index barely budged. But now that there's a real threat to world trade - an emerging pandemic in China - the market begins to crumble.
6
Quite a mess - we should have listened to Greta Thunberg's angry denunciations of people who consume things. No consumption, no supply problem.
But there is the other alternative - rebuilding industry in our own country. A great idea, if we can get over the internationalism fad; which serves only Big Banks, Giant Retailers, and Ultra Left Wing politicians, while crushing working people in our own country.
5
@Peter Zenger America First; another empty catchphrase. Trump has kicked our allies in the face; so we stand alone now.America is tied economically to the World; if they have problems; we have problems. You can build a wall around America; we will be totally alone.
6
@Peter Zenger
Ultra Left Wing??
You do know that the captains of industry, who've decimated production in the U.S. in favor of raking in huge profits by manufacturing overseas, tend to be highly conservative?
9
How many times do scientists have to warn the public before preventative or preparative measures are taken? Now it's the coronavirus which, yes was inevitable, but where is the medical infrastructure that virtually all doctors and scientists have advised be put in place? Oh yeah, that costs money, and we need that money for weapons that are never used. Think only China is this way? Even this article takes the point of view of the effect on the economy. Oh how unfortunate. We better not plan for the next outbreak huh? That would cost more money. And while we're at it, let's not plan for or take preventative measures for climate, renewable energy, education, health care, and all other predictable (through science) needs. This is an essentially right-wing, money grubbing attitude for everything, and even the left-leaning press has bought into it. Listen to NPR, for example, and how often they repeat the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq? Probably three or four times an hour. What is the message being sent? Money matters the most. Science doesn't matter unless it's convenient, or when we are staring death in the face. Most people don't know this, but scientists working in academia struggle for every research dollar. If I chose to do military-related research, I would never struggle to get grant money again.
Hope the death toll isn't too high for this and the next crises...
14
Yes if the global threats you mentioned could be marketed to ring as true to Americans as the Super Bowl, we would have these problems licked.
3
At least the Coronavirus will be harder to deny that the current administration denies global warming. But don't expect Trump to take the drastic steps China has taken when the US population is threatened. Even China has more concern for the welfare of its people than the current administration. Only when the 1% are threatened on Wall Street and behind their gated communities will our GOP (Group of Plutocrats) take action.
7
Many Americans are said to be $400 from financial disaster. Cry me a river if Apple, Microsoft or Nike has to do without its steady river of income, if its shareholders have to take a little cut in their generous dividend for one financial quarter.
8
The only place we can stop these new epidemic viruses is at the start. The millions of very small farms mixing pigs, ducks, chickens in close quarters with humans and wild bats forces viruses to jump between species and mutate. Markets with vast numbers of live animals spread the viruses. China has modernized other industries, until they do the same with agriculture and food handling these new viruses will continue to appear.
17
We could have contained this virus if all countries had blocked air travel into and out of China three weeks ago, but because of the "economy," this didn't happen.
When you're dead, the economy doesn't matter.
22
The threat from viruses could be deadlier in the future. So, the Corporations must plan on this kind of disruptions and others that may arise such as economic sanctions and wars. Therefore, their supply chain must be distributed globally and robust to survive in the future. For instance, set up two manufacturing facilities in different countries producing the same parts.
7
I think most of this is overreaction. The US is a consumer based economy and driven by that and lower interest rates and QE. Yes, there are going to be some fear dips but that is really more of an opportunity for those that buy dips than anything else. The first quarter or two of the year are going to be slow anyway so I see this more as an excuse for under performing GDP numbers more than anything else. A 10% drop in the market would more likely just be a welcome correction to an overvalued market but given the lack of opportunities to put your money elsewhere we likely will never see that.
1
I haven’t seen anything about this: how long can the virus linger on hard surfaces? Do we need to Lysol everything produced in China when we open the box?
8
@Louisa Glasson In a recent article, researchers indicated that there was preliminary evidence that this particular coronavirus lingered a bit longer on surfaces, eg door handles - which might explain why human-to-human infection is so efficient.
HOWEVER, it's unlikely that the virus will survive on a surface long enough to be viable after a six-week voyage across the Pacific. Wash your hands anyway after opening the box because *shudder* who knows what the box picked up in the truck.
12
No, China can't have it both ways. Either they're a modern, first-world country, a world leader, or they're a backward, third-world country that allows wild, live animals to be crowded into cages and sold in their food markets.
15
This article focuses on huge and very important economic issues-- but not much on USA public who will be impacted thanks to Trump shut down the US pandemic response system.
"In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/
17
Yeah but he did it in the best interest of our country... right Senators?
1
Would be great if the NYT did a story on the abject hysteria surrounding this flu-like illness, and then also called it the flu, and then add in the bit that the flu happens every winter in these parts, just with a different panic-inducing name. And everyone falls apart, with the flames fanned from every corner of the international media. Sending this from my "quarantined" hotel in hong kong, which offers a wonderful breakfast buffet.
1
@vicsquirts Yes, the ordinary flu is deadly and everyone should take better precautions, including getting vaccinated against it each year. But the issue with the novel corona virus is that we don't yet know its mortality rate. Based on the current data, it appears the corona virus is more lethal than the flu. How much so (or hopefully how much less) is yet to be determined. In the meantime, countries (and everyone) should take adequate precautions to prevent its spread.
3
Except it’s not the flu.
I hope your exile ends soon.
1
Not to dismiss the corona virus but the current flu epidemic in the US has affected 19 million people and killed 10,000. Right now. This years flu also has two versions.
Are you sure you’re covering the right news folks?
5
Once in a while an old adage that my parents taught me “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” seems to be playing out on a global scale. The rush for companies to move manufacturing to China for lower wages and the rush for consumers to pay lower prices has led to what might become a global recession which will hurt everyone. Sad!
10
It's far to early to go into panic mode over any of this, because much depends on morbidity rates, mortality rates, the timing of the effectiveness of control measures and simply the time it will take for this virus to burn itself out before we fully understand the extent of personal risk, and from that the economic risks associated with the control measures. So let's all take a deep breath, wash our hands, keep our hands away from our faces and keep a safe distance from people who may have been exposed. This article speaks of disruption - for sure, but how much and for how long remains to be reliably assessed. Meanwhile, a great many more will die of the flu.
2
Assessing the risks of nCoV will require data and time. Among the most crucial indicators in any epidemic is the fatality rate: the share of the infected who die from the disease. The statistics on diagnosed nCoV cases available as of today would suggest a fatality rate of around two percent. (For comparison, SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, had a fatality rate of ten percent when it broke out in 2002 and 2003, while seasonal flu has a fatality rate of about 0.01 percent.) But that fatality rate will change. At the start of a new outbreak, the most serious cases of illness and death are the easiest to spot and are thus recorded first. As more cases come to light, including many milder ones, the fatality rate is likely to go down, perhaps substantially. In an optimistic scenario, nCoV will have a lethality closer to seasonal flu than to SARS—but it is too early to know. As of now, older adults appear to be most at risk, with very few recognized cases in children.
3
With a strange coincidence when China joined the WTO and registered its presence on the global stage it also terrorised the world with the SARS menace. Since then China has rightly or wrongly acquired the capacity to impact the global society, economy, and the politics,more so due to an enigma associated with its intentions and actions shrouded in mystery. So, whetether it is China's contribution to world economy and the scare through pandemics like SARS and the Coronavirus the world has to learn to live with China's mixed baggage of benign and not so benign influence with due preparedness and cooperation.
3
The best news about the coronavirus pandemic is that it shows how a private, for profit health care system doesn't work. How can a company that needs to see quarterly earnings invest billions in preparing for a pandemic that might not show up for 20 years. Instead of spending millions advertising obscure cancer treatments, the pharmaceutical industry needs to invest in more widespread but less profitable illnesses. This can only be accomplished with government regulations, financing and price controls.
20
@DitchmitchDumptrump Yes, because governments clearly can a) develop a vaccine before an emergent epidemic has ever been witnessed before and b) governments are doing such an excellent job containing this one and avoiding wide-spread panic.
Yeesh. Plenty of ways to argue in favor of improving American healthcare without stretching yourself to these ridiculous lengths to make your point.
1
Wow did we read the same article? I was seeing how private companies are reacting quickly and decisively in a real time manner while the government, China in this case, their bureaucracy got in the way of this crises through organizational inertia. The Chinese government, being a dictatorship, generally can move faster in a crisis than a divided democracy. Do you really think that either of our political parties make decisions quickly?
4
@Tammy No, Our parties can't make decisions quickly. Mitch McConnell is there to block or slow down everything except the impeachment. China can move very quickly. They have built a new hospital in 10 days.
Experts seem to agree that the number of carriers is vastly understated and that we are facing a pandemic, but little is known about the characteristics of the virus - like how it actually spreads or will it die off in milder weather. One thing for sure, it’s moving around fast and will be hard to contain.
8
I was in Hong Kong and mainland China for both SARS and avian flu. Coronavirus seemed much worse from early on due to the level of contagious spread. I was at an HHS meeting in DC last week when early in the week the public was still nonchalant about it. The CDC folks were clearly scared; not for the Chinese, for themselves. It was obvious this was thought to be the big one, or at least one of the big ones we have been worrying about for decades. That was at least my read on them.
17
A coronavirus vaccine is in the works. Even with a vaccine for influenza, "The CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."
1
@Stan Yes, we read that researchers are working intently on a vaccine.
And now we read, 'In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure.'
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/
How will people in the US be affected, would it have been better if Trump hadn't shut down the pandemic disease response teams?
9
Ok, China will now have to take seriously the regulation of food products and markets in its country. A corona virus is a virus that has transferred between species. China's wild, live animal food markets have now been the cause of several such viruses spreading in their country and globally. For example SARS affected the Chinese economy at the time but not to the level that the current virus will have on global trade and Chinese productivity. Chinese authorities will have to decide if they will continue to allow such unregulated sale of live wild animals like snakes and rodents which are the carriers of these viruses to continue.
20
If people get sick or die that’s ok. But let the economy suffer. Now the corona virus is a problem. That’s humans alright.
8
I do not blame people who trust the government data and claim this is milder than flu. But doing so is unjustifiable for the sick and diseased, who fought so hard for their lives in vain. It is also dangerous for the healthy as they lower their guard. THIS IS NOT A FLU. Chinese government is substantially underreporting the severity of it. Videos and reports from the infected areas show victims dropping dead on street like leafs. A lot of bodies are left in the house for long time before being collected. A truly humanitarian Crisis that begs the world’s aid.
4
@Lion Trump shut down the pandemic response teams in 2018-- who noticed then?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/
Maybe China should shut down it's wild game markets. The practice of selling wild animals such as bats in crowed urban cities is just a recipe for pandemics. This virus is believed to be a result of a transfer from a bat to a human.
11
Did this latest Corona-virus epidemic originate in bats sold in the Wuhan market for human consumption??? In 2020 Chinese markets should not be selling wildlife sourced from any part of the world as food for human consumption. China today is advanced enough that it can feed its entire population from well-regulated agricultural sources. The Chinese obsession with exotic animals as sources of miraculous healing powers is a failure of the Chinese educational system. Pangolins, rhinoceros horns and all the other mythological cure-alls must be debunked for the frauds they perpetuate and the dangers they pose both to the Chinese population as a whole and to the planet's ecosystem. Any effect on the global economy is just one more consequence of the perpetuation of superstitions lacking any scientific evidence.
20
@RLW I'm surprised this narrative is still being perpetuated on a site like the NYTimes, where I assume most readers are educated and intelligent. There were no bats for sale at the Wuhan market. The video most people have latched onto (the one where the Chinese woman ate bat soup) was not even filmed in China but in Palau. It was a video showcasing the local delicacies as part of a travel show. They still don't know the cause of it so I'd be careful when throwing out premature accusations.
5
@Jenn I am not aware of any evidence the disease is spread by eating bats, but wild bats are a major reserviour of contagious viruses in China as they can carry a variety of viruses affecting humans while apparently remaining healthy themselves.
1
@Jenn I stand appropriately chastised for implying that the current corona virus epidemic which may actually have originated in bats came from the sale of bats for human consumption. Nevertheless the sale of endangered species sold in Chinese markets for use in traditional Chinese "medicines" cannot be denied.
3
Perhaps it will teach us how idiotic it is to depend on China and other Asian countries for so much that we once made here and that are vital to sustaining our pattern of life. Think about it! Once made here just about everything that prevents us from being naked, mid-winter from our footware to our hats were made elsewhere -- made here within my memory. The same is true of the computer on which you are reading this and the automotive parts that made possible its delivery to the store where you bought it. All this to counter-balance ( and then only partly) our export of soybeans and military weapons?
6
We shall soon find out what happens when China "sneezes."
5
What this shows is how American multinational corporations shamefully helped to make China great and America suffer economically. All of this was caused by the quest for cheap labor overseas.
In order to make America Great again we need to retake our position as one of the great manufacturing countries of the world which might bring income equality to American workers.
Trump ran on a promise to bring jobs back which he couldn't accomplish because he couldn't get manufacturers to agree. I remember when Steve Jobs said he wasn't willing to have his Apple products made in this country but chose China instead.
18
Responding to combat the virus originating in China is a problem requiring a response from the world; and not simply one that is the responsibility of China to fight alone. Microbes have
no respect for international borders. Humans are hosts and her/his ancestry is of no consequence to the microbe.
4
Our own CDC recently reported that the annual flu has killed 8,200 in the U.S. so far this flu season. Normally, 12,000 to 60,000 die every year in the U.S. from the flu, and 650,000 die every year worldwide each year from the flu.
My question is, how does the Coronavirus stack up as a threat to humanity in comparison to the normal flu virus, not just SARS? SARs killed only 800 people worldwide, but the flu kills 650,000 worldwide every year.
2
@SparkyTheWonderPup - how many people get infected by the flu? If 10% of US population gets infected, then the mortality rate is quite low. If SARS infected 10,000 people and 800 died, then SARS is more dangerous. You can use numbers; you have to use %.
3
@SparkyTheWonderPup
The difference is that the flu doesn't send 20% of the people who get it into intensive care as the Wuhan Coronavirus does. Also, unlike the flu, there is no vaccine for the Coronavirus.
4
@Mary - meant to say "can't use numbers!"
1
The most impressive news about the coronavirus outbreak is the time (little over one week) that the Chinese need to build a large hospital. How many months would it take for us? Don't know about the quality of the construction. Probably not top. But still no wonder that China is such a rising superpower.
1
is it?
while not minimizing the danger, it seems less contagious than SARS, less lethal than SARS, and despite China's initial actions, more is being done to contain the virus.
there will surely be a short term impact to trade and travel, some of which can be recovered and some of which will be lost forever.
it's good to be cautious and take every possible action to stop the spread, but it's not good to overstate the risk. we're seeing this from the media with infectious disease, hurricanes, blizzards and more. it's not responsible reporting.
right now, i don't think anybody really knows what the impact will be, if a treatment is found, or if this will burn itself out like most contagious diseases.
the real recommendation should be - don't do anything stupid while this is being investigated. but don't stop living either.
3
trump is finally a genius! trump knew years ago a deadly new coronavirus would emerge in China and his trade war was a sneaky way to get companies to build a few extra months of inventory. trump is also a great weather forecaster, Alabama better watch out, hurricane Dorian still has Alabama in its sights.
5
The seasonal flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). No panic, no special airport screenings, no putting people in isolation, no walling off populations of millions. And thats with available vaccines. A virus cannot be contained, it can merely be managed. Once the overblown fear subsides and we have actual science concerning spread, death rates etc, once the panic subsides, buisness will resume as normal. A vaccine will become available, its just a matter of time, probably months. Since pretty much everybody in the world will want that medication big Pharma will once again prevail. I wonder how much that will cost?
3
@NYer
I highly doubt we’re getting the full story from Beijing. They wouldn’t be shutting down entire cities if this were just another flu virus.
45
Stop comparing this horrible disease to flu. It has deprived a lot of lives. Chinese government is substantially underreporting the severity of it. Videos and reports from the infected areas show victims dropping dead on street like leafs. A lot of bodies are left in the house for long time before being collected. A truly humanitarian Crisis that begs the world’s aid.
3
@NYer
Assuming that everything goes right, an nCoV vaccine could take around a year to develop, according to leading experts in the field.
2
It saddens me so much to see the racism against East Asians that this disease is fanning, even though the flu is a Much bigger concern by Many magnitudes. I can’t help but notice the stark contrast between the media and public’s response to 24 Australians dying due to fires and 300+ people dying because of this disease. I agree with @Ted Morton that articles like these are Not helpful—I see NYT “picked” a comment about someone’s concern for the climate due to the hospital being built. What a shame. The Guardian is the only paper I’ve seen that has an editorial about the xenophobia this disease (and articles like these) is exacerbating. I am truly hurt and disappointed in the media and the public.
16
@DoctorFaustus This is definitely an important subject worthy of attention. And we have covered it: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/world/asia/coronavirus-chinese-racism.html
2
@DoctorFaustus
Genuinely curious, what part of this article do you see fanning the flames of xenophobia? I work with a lot of Chinese people, one just got back from a vacation there and will stay home for a few weeks just in case. The impacts of this are pretty wide reaching, I don't see how it's racist to talk about it.
5
If production is shifted to places like Vietnam, what is to stop the virus from shifting there, too? If it has not already.
9
@John Warnock
Vietnam has reported cases, but it is not clear if those cases are Chinese visitors or Vietnamese nationals who have contracted the disease from visitors. At any rate, Vietnam has closed its airports to Chinese flyers.
1
Given that more than 50 million people are locked down, the number of actual cases must be in the hundreds of thousands and growing. It will take months before a ball-part estimate approaches accuracy.
5
Regardless of China’s response, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
If you don’t think such outbreaks are baked-in to the systems that are de facto in China, google “china gutter oil”.
Don’t worry! We can always cut jobs before we have to cut profit taking! Besides, the Coronavirus might be a gift in disguise. It’s an easier way to reduce the surplus population without having to pass unpopular legislation like cutting medicaid or scaling back Medicare benefits. Win-win winning!
— Compassionate Conservatives and Value Voters
8
This might trigger an economic decline that allows Team Trump to (again) demonstrate their prowess in handling crises not of their making. #BigBluePike11-03-20
4
Question that should concern all of us: How many meetings and briefing has Trump has on this crisis? In a casual conversation with a Doctor the other night (who stated he is not an expert in this area of medicine) he reeled off a page long list of things we should be doing in this country to both detect and prepare for an outbreak. I would venture a guess that Trump has had no such briefing..no instead he is doing Super Bowl interviews with Hannity--where he discusses the height of opposing candidate instead of a coming pandemic- and hosting an extravagant Super Bowl party--when he should be overseeing a plan of action when this virus hits our shores.
19
@Amanda Jones The CDC and the people responsible for protecting America are NOT sitting around waiting for Trump to tell them what to do. They know what to do and are doing it. Stop with the Trump bashing.
4
@NYChap
You mean like when Trump threatened jobs at NOAA because of his idiotic pride? Trump is incompetent and should be bashed often and unrelentingly.
7
This may be the beginning of a pandemic. About 20% of people who acquire this virus end up in intensive care. The number of the ones fully recovered is barely above the one of the ones killed by this disease. Even the ones who recover may suffer permanent difficulties, especially the ones who were ICU patients. I happen to know this, as I do this for a living for a few decades now.
And you talk about the economy and financial issues.
Right now I worry more about my survival and the survival of my kids and rest of the family, and the preservation of our usual health. Money is the last thing on my mind right now.
16
@supereks
I could't agree more with the writer. The Lancet already has an article out that warns of a new pandemic, which could be on the scale of the 2018 flu epidemic. We should be helping the Chinese in every we can and mobilizing resources for the development of vaccines and temporary quarantine health facilities here and abroad. Poor countries with weak health care systems (which the Republicans would like to bring here if they could) will be very hard hit--and will desperately need the help of wealthy countries like us.
9
Read many victim’s first-Hand report, I agree with everything you said here. Money is light in comparison with the weight of life.
1
@Jayne You mean the 1918 flu pandemic.
Paradoxically, in the information age we are actually less likely to acquire information which should help us.
Listening to a Johns Hopkins professor of infectious disease and public health on NPR this morning my take away is that this is a respiratory virus with a very low mortality rate, which has been incubating and present since last November, which most people experience as a mild cold, and which is far less likely to kill you than influenza.
He answered the questions about China's response to isolate the entire province and America's to cancel all flights from China as an hysterical over reaction, predictably in-efficacious,
So what we have is inadequate information, unreasonable panic and an ill informed public led by ignorant politicians intending to score political points--even Senator Ed Markey is excoriating Trump for failing to appoint a "coronavirus czar," as if that would help.
We have information without analysis in the information age.
3
If this turns into a pandemic and takes down the globalized economy, it will surely hurt the stock market and likely affect the economic growth rate and job market.
Just as Trump took credit for the economy when he had no part in it (other than a heroin injection with the tax cuts), he will also be blamed if it goes down the tubes because of a pandemic.
Karma.
12
@Robert kennedy If a stock market crash occurs because of a global pandemic that was caused by China President Trump who has absolutely nothing to do with starting or spreading the Coronavirus will only be blamed by crazy people who hate Trump. The reason he was taking some credit for any stock market increase was because his policy changes helped the economy. There is a direct and rational cause and effect there.
6
This "deadly virus" has, up to now, a 2% death rate. Yet the Chinese economy is thrown into chaos, and global markets are shaken up. This makes no sense. I can think of only two explanations. One is that the world economy is so fragile and investors have so little confidence in the future that almost anything will tend to create a financial crisis. The other is that the mass media likes nothing more than to create anxiety and panic to build its audience. Actually, I think it's both. I would be willing to bet that in six months this "emergency" will go the way of SARS or, looking back further, Y2K (remember that?).
6
@Michael Engel
The 2% death rate is meaningless because 20% of the people who contract the disease end up in intensive care.
2
Technically the threat is to humans, not the economy. The economy is only necessary to provide goods to humans. If the humans die then the economy is not useful to them anymore.
It is not clear that the coronavirus is more deadly than a typical flu. It is hard to know because most flus are not reported to medical statistics gatherers.
If the coronavirus causes an economic downturn that would be a good thing since unfettered capitalism is destroying democracies and the planet we live on.
As a member of the unrepresented underclass I have no worries about either the deaths or the economic damage since I will likely survive a case of the coronavirus (being generally healthy) and I am not benefiting from the economy which is geared toward taking from me rather than allowing me to be successful financially. I am not rich and therefore cannot be above the laws which put me at a serious disadvantage relative to the wealthy who can do anything they want and are not hindered by morality or legality.
16
To think: all this disruption possibly carried by a sick snake or civet caged up, ready to sell in a crowded wild food market.
12
@Lee Mag : Indeed. But not caused by the snakes or civets but by the people who are peddling these at the market -- and the build who keep those people in business.
8
Much depends on dinner.
2
@Lee Mag
Emphasis on possibly please.
1
Wilbur Ross's argument that Coronavirus is good for American economy could not have been a more irresponsible, imbecilic statement.
The global economy we now have has all humans enmeshed into a web of interdependencies.
So, remember the War of the Worlds? Its conclusion was that we humans have earned the right to live on Earth and are able to overcome biological assaults on our very existence, in the case of the movie an externality, an alien attack.
We live with common flue which kills far more than these exotic viruses. So why do we panic? It follows that we humans, due to 'normalcy bias' don't respond to impeding threats such as the Climate Crisis but over-react to fear-mongering which is the product of media gone berserk.
It's Orson Welles all over again!
15
@Nicholas To me this feels like a good dose of Orson Welles with a dash of George Orwell thrown in for good measure...
3
@Doug "over react to fear-mongering was about Coronavirus, wasn't that obvious?
I would be interested in learning if this impacts the US pharmaceutical supply chain both for generics manufactured in China and API (active pharmaceutical ingredients) imported from China and used in US manufacture of brand and generic drugs.
13
@SR
Go to https://www.katherineeban.com/contact and place a request. She has her finger on the pulse of international pharma.
The markets?
That's where the threat lies?
What about the people.
I suppose we ought to be grateful there is a monetary loss involved. Otherwise, authorities wouldn't much concern themselves.
40
@Naples
"the markets...What about the people?
This is the US they're talking about here. Get your priorities straight.
@Naples
You are right about the fear for stock markets and the system being a major factor in any concern being expressed and acted upon. The cost-benefit model of regulation and decision making has a lot do with that (I remember St. Ronnie Reagan mandating that via OMB in 1981). Of course, that did ensure full employment for "economists" and "analysts" determining overinflated costs and undervalued benefits for proposed and existing regulations in the US, something which has continued with only minor corrections over the decades since. It also became a staple of corporate decision-making (let's make everything a "cost center"!).
I would only modify your comment about authorities by noting that the CDC, NIH, and other national and international health agencies and researchers, etc., are and would be the ones concerning themselves. The heads of governments may in countries where they value scientific knowledge.
We are lucky to have a very competent and respected head of NIH (as bad as most Trump appointments have been, his reappointment of Dr. Collins, originally appointed by Pres. Obama, was very smart/fortunate), and a lot of dedicated and excellent people in those agencies. Let's hope we can keep them.
2
No it's not. A 2 % mortality only suits media outlets and alarmists.
3
Now wouldn't it be nice if we all just spent our leisure time staying home and listening to the radio, or records on the record player, played cards or checkers, or just read the newspaper or a good book? We also might throw in the mix talking and listening to each other.
7
Trump’s war on government has decimated crucial functions in key agencies, a key tool in the response to the Corona virus. In July 2018, John Bolton took over the NSC, and disbanded the unit, and there is scarcely a single competent or experienced leader left at the Department of Homeland Security.
Trump’s paranoia about having such government veterans in the White House would likely mean greater personal involvement. And in that regard, senior officials in government agencies may have a view of presidential engagement not unlike Fiddler on the Roof’s prayer for the czar: “May the Lord bless and keep him … far away from us.”
14
The world incl the US depended on one country as its low cost manufacturing hub. That hub benefitted from the authoritarian anti democratic govt diktats in setting up those vast factories and the curtailing of labor rights. Nouveau rich there eat freshly slaughtered wild animals to show off their wealth and bragging rights, animals that humans should not consume under normal circumstances not to mention the destruction such culinary ‘delights’ cause environmentally and endangering of wild animal population. The proverbial chickens are coming home to roost, time to pay the devil for the Faustian bargain.
25
@Observer Thank you for bringing up the Chinese gourmet feast of WILD ANIMALS. Your mention of this reminded me of an incident in Beijing c. 2009. My husband and I were staying in a very elegant hotel in the Second Ring. One evening, we thought we would dine at their special restaurant. When we approached the receptionist to make a reservation, we were advised that this cuisine was “Not for Us” ... and, we fortunately understood. Here was a restaurant that charged $500 per person for the privilege of eating live monkey brains. Imagine monkeys and other wild animals in cages in a market, sold for just this kind of outlandish consumption. Just the thought of this makes me ill.
26
@JAY
"WILD ANIMALS"
The saying, "you are what you eat" comes to mind.
1
The Times articles contain more fear and less hope than we all deserve. As I read despatches from China, Hong Kong, there are glimmers of hope, not reported by the Times or buried deeply in a fear-laden article. A trial of an American anti-viral is underway in several hundred patients, initial reports are surprising to me and are hopeful. The expertise gained by doctors in China from the SARS epidemic is making recovery for hospitalized patients possible, an expertise not found in some countries facing newly infected corona virus patients. It turns out that humans are fighting back. We have more tools to do that than in the past and more than merely wearing face masks as photos throughout the media have shown for days.
10
Humanity would be better served by not "fighting back against nature" but learning to rebalance its relationship with the environment. That includes stopping these unacceptable live markets, among other things.
1
This coming pandemic is a foretaste of what is coming at us with climate change.
Far from being a menace, a radical slowdown of the economy is exactly what we need if, by any chance, we choose to address the real menace that is climate change.
22
One of the interesting contrasts between the US and China is that the latter is now a manufacturing giant. The US is not - it is more of a service industry. How will that play out over the coming months?
10
@ms
(cough, cough) Jobs?
1
And who made China into that which it is today? Only them? Guess again!
I have to protest the recent overuse of the word "exponentially" in NYT. If you choose to use mathematical terminology then do it right. 1% growth over the years would have also be exponential, as would be 0% growth. Exponential growth is the most natural one, and if a country grew non-exponentially this would probably be more noteworthy news. What you meant to say, I think, is that China has grown at an unusually high (exponential) rate.
10
I find it fascinating that there is more attention paid to the economic outcome of this pandemic then to the human suffering and fatalities that are resulting from this in China and other countries.
34
@JRS fascinating? I find it sobering with prayers that others do, also. Very thought-provoking comments.
2
@JRS
Simply not true. There isn't "more attention paid to the economic outcome than to the human suffering." Is this the only article you're reading?
5
@JRS “One death is a tragedy; a million is a statistic.” - Stalin
1
Based on this article if Chinese production continues to erode, Prices on many of the goods we purchase from China will rise & create a global inflation.This will badly afect our economy, just in time for the National elections which will bode badly for Trump who depends on our vibrant economy to win a another 4 year term.
13
It’s okay, the last thing America needs is another 4 years of trump.
3
@Independent1776 Or, it will demonstrate the need to lessen dependence on foreign markets such as China which would be in Trump's wheelhouse. If you think Trump will get the blame for a collapse of the Chinese market you are delusional.
1
Let's not forget that most experts agree that climate change helps these new viruses take root and spread. The press is now in a panic, yet these epidemics are never added in as a "cost" when assessing global warming.
31
@Aerys, probably because global warming has nothing to do with this particular virus. Sorry.
1
after WW1 there was the Spanish flu and that flu killed millions and back then the globe wasn’t even warming according to today’s so-called climate scientists.
It used to said that when the American economy catches a cold the rest of the world gets pneumonia. Now that China has matched the US economy in size, and even exceeded it in terms of economic dynamism, we might wonder what happens when China catches a cold, or worse.
18
I support the decision by Chinese government to ban, albeit temporarily, the sale of exotic foods like cats, baits, snakes, etc. For years, these are one of the main cause of appearing new strain of viruses in Asia. Make the ban permanent! In our age of mass fast transport, these types of antiquated practices represent a great danger to human race. There is no shortage of "normal" food in China.
29
@Marat K : They could make the ban permanent OR we could have a permanent travel ban with China. Then the Chinese could decide what's more important -- these festering wet market or world trade and tourism.
3
Yes, the "economists" who populate the Trump administration should start figuring how to mitigate this effect. Just saying that this virus will "help the US" is idiocy. This is a problem for the WORLD and cooperation is the only cure.
10
With the sudden slowdown of economies because of the Coronoavirus impact one consequence of it could be a dreaded Black Swan Event when an unexpected significant event disrupts economies unprepared for their appearance.
At this frothy stage of the 11 year expansion of the stock market there is no assurance that when the event passes in a few months things will again just keep on bubbling along .
Big bucks will be made and lost betting on all this by summer and more importantly the political impact on the elections could be very significant, particularly for Trump.
6
The economic swings can occur for strange reasons and a major downturn in China that impacts factory output would have global implications. How long the 2019-nCoV epidemic will last is unknown but could it be what tips a booming US economy into a slide. That slide could well turn into a recession considering the ballon the US economy has been floating on for a number of years ignoring the rising national debt. All of which spells trouble in an election year.
13
In comparison, we had more than 30,000 death due to flu virus here in 2019. So far, China has more than 360 death. The situation will be much more clear on Feb. 7 when the two weeks Coronavirus incubation period expires.
In comparison, the people cured leaving the hospitals so far out numbered the patient died dur to the disease.
In comparison, SARS occurred in Beijing and Quanzhou, two largest and vibrant cities in China in 2003. Quarterly GDP decreased 2% immediately, but recovered back to 11% after one year. Today, the Coronavirus occurred in Wuhan, a secondary or tertiary city in the middle of China. Although it has vital industries there, but overall to Chinese economy should be limited. Mainly the small retail, service, and hospitality sectors will be severely affected. Government loans should help those middle and small companies without saying.
In comparison, China is a much more regulated and advanced economy than that in 2003. Her ability to handle emergency is much better and more sophisticated. Otherwise, shut down of several big cities is not that easily accomplished without adequate ability to sustain the people's life there.
We should not limit our mind to doomsday scenario. In comparison, if we can handle emergency adequately, China should be able to do the same more or less. In comparison, Chinese economy is about 65% in size to our economy.
3
I appreciate your optimism, but the CCP is way more concerned that you are by rushing to build two hospitals in 15 days, with a 2500 bed capacity. That should tell you something.
9
It tells me that if China had wanted to shut down the cruel and unsanitary live animal markets, and their traffic in endangered species, they could have.
Building a hospital in seconds flat is the kind of grandiose Chinese gesture that distracts from their craven greed and willingness to sacrifice the entire world’s safety just to keep their strong men in power and people de facto enslaved.
In my lifetime, I’ve never seen a global superpower with 1.2b people first quarantine a city, then essentially close off its borders. I read yesterday flights to China are being cancelled through April and cruise ships have abandoned routes.
With its reputation, I don’t trust a word coming from the lips of Chinese officials....but I do trust their actions. Clearly they know something we don’t. A self interested entity like China doesn’t drive their economy into a ditch lightly. Reading the piece yesterday about conditions in Wuhan in the Times was sobering. I have genuine concern that this is no ordinary illness.
79
Excellent point, I fear that we are not getting the entire information.
15
@GWE Good point, but you understated China's population by 200 million....
1
No suprise China is trying to deflect their massive inexcusable mistakes by calling the U.S.'s actions to protect itself "terrorism". Had China been transparent and forthright instead of sneaky and lying, perhaps we wouldn't be facing a pandemic!
I just hope more countries take Trump's lead and close their borders immediately. But sadly, most countries are afraid of offending China even at the gave expense of their own country!!
9
@American Abroad
Closing borders at this point is meaningless. The horse has left the barn. But it does provide opportunities for people to engage in jingoism, I'll give you that.
23
@EpidemDoc
Meaningless? How can you be so sure when we don't even know what we're dealing with given China's lies. It gives us time to limit the damage and consider more rationally our options.
4
@American Abroad
Because the virus has already spread beyond China's borders, that's why.
2
Epidemic expert Laurie Garrett writes the following in Foreign Policy:
"In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion. If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it isIf the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is..."https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/?fbclid=IwAR2HutJdluTEXoMW9fnN3xKYHCVOqoV7UMtY7Sd_vBlsZAMquU_VCEGWPcg
43
@Bronwyn
I posted this article by the excellent and knowledgeable Laurie Garrett in another NYT comments section yesterday afternoon and was promptly told by another reader that I was "hysterical" and "panicking." Apparently disseminating factual information isn't appreciated.
5
@Bronwyn This is what happens when you spend decades telling people the government is the problem.
6
The tease for this article makes a case this virus will be bad for markets, as if that's the story here.
Nevermind the dying humans, the governmental dishonesty and neglect, the wider health care crisis.
Let's worry about the "fortunes".
18
@James Gyre
I think you're erecting a straw man argument. There are other articles at the NYT as we speak reporting on the human toll.
3
@James Gyre
"The tease for this article makes a case this virus will be bad for markets, as if that's the story here."
If you are referring to:
"SARS Stung the Global Economy. The Coronavirus Is a Greater Menace."
that is not a "tease". It is called a "headline". It informs readers what _this_ particular article is about. Newspapers use headlines to help readers find an article that covers a topic the reader might be interested in.
Specifically, this article is about the global economic effects of the Wuhan coronavirus. It is _not_ about "dying humans, the governmental dishonesty and neglect, the wider health care crisis."
So this article _is_ giving the correct story, based on the headline above it.
If you want to read an article about "dying humans", or "governmental dishonesty and neglect", or "the wider health care crisis" I would recommend that you search for a headline that refers to one of those topics. It will be followed by an article about the topic you are interested in.
Hope this helps.
3
This is what it looks like when the dynasty loses the Mandate of Heaven.
7
If another pandemic can cause serious global financial upheaval, then what can we expect from climate change in 10 years? 20 years?
World leaders are like ostriches with their heads in the sand. This short term, knee jerk reaction to a virus shows no leadership.
The horse left the barn several weeks ago and only now steps are taken to thwart a virus that has shown up in major metro areas.
With so much advanced warning, politicians do nothing substantive to reverse climate change and the dire effects we all know about and can see coming.
In the USA that is supposed to be a global leader, Trump and big corporations reverse course on climate change initiatives by working to allow raw sewage to be dumped, again, in rivers and streams....utter stupidy, incompetence and extremely dangerous to our health and the stability we need to plan for a better future.
23
@Leslie Duval
My point exactly. Thank you.
1
@Leslie Duval
They have plenty of company when it comes to having their head in the sand. They are right next to climate alarmists like you who don't seem to notice the Population Problem we are facing. Seems like there is lots of room for lots of heads to be stuck in lots of sand.
1
Too bad nothing can apparently stop the ships coming from China (lest global supply chains be disrupted) I’m sure the Genoese traders who brought the Black Death to Europe from China in 1347 would have been no more deterred, had they known what they were carrying in their ships. Money to be made, after all.
9
The Genoese sailed to and from Crimea, not China. Nor is it known exactly where in Asia the Black Death originated as opposed to where it was recorded. And Genoa was not the only gateway into Europe for the disease, which also moved by land.
@O. Ellis
Oh, stop with your facts, already.
As much as we -living in a "democracy"- love to castigate China for its authoritarian system of governance (this also motivated by envy of its economic prowess and remarkable infrastructure), we should appreciate that this is a circumstance where the efficacy of its authoritarianism by closing down cities of 11 million -apart from so many others- is trying to contain the virus as much as possible. Building hospitals/triage centers/isolations wards in a week or so are just achievements that would be unimaginable in the West.
So let's give credit to China's single-minded efforts for what it's doing...and let's also express humanity by lamenting the loss of life and the ill health of many others.
17
Infrastructure? Like in the live animal markets that make medieval Europe look like Star Trek? Like in the sanitation in the villages? Like in the Belt and Road project’s environmental disaster? Like in the countless products found to have severe safety or toxicity problems, including pharmaceuticals, children’s toys, and most recently, more than a billion hogs slaughtered in a disease epidemic?
Chinese propaganda may be obligatory in China, but we can keep it out of the New York Times.
1
China is THE world's supplier of electronic parts. All the pieces that go into just about anything electronic come from China. This are crucial industries that fuel the word's economies.
Economists tend to look at macro numbers but those hide the true story of criticality. For example, let's say a product sells for $300. The parts in it from China cost $10. An economist would look at that percentage and calculate that the loss of that $10 is an insignificant percentage of output. But the $300 product will not function without those $10 in parts. So the products cannot be made and sold. This results in huge losses elsewhere as they ripple through the global economy.
We stopped making those parts here 40 years ago. First they went to Japan and then Taiwan. Then it all went to China. Chinese electronic parts drive the world.
If those plants shut down, that's bgd trouble for the global economy.
As Krugman often states. Your spending is my income and my spending is yours. As the Chinese economy contracts, it drags the rest of the word down with it. This is one reason why steel prices have plummeted.
The Trump tariffs are a huge drag on domestic electronics manufacturing. That's where I make my money. As inventories have been depleted, the replacement parts are coming in at 30% higher. This is devastating to profits and viability for us. Trump is ruining our industry. Now this virus could be another blow if the parts plants shut down.
61
@Bruce Rozenblit : If the issue is small, critical parts that are being made abroad, it seems the real fix is to start making those domestically. This would create security at home, and more jobs too.
6
But the final product will cost ten times more.
@Bruce Rozenblit And yet, somehow we all lived just fine 20 years ago.
5
This might be the black swan event that finally hits China in an situation where trust in the China system has been wavering:
- Originally, countries and companies bent over backwards to do business in China, in recent times, protectionism by the Xi government and protests in Hong Kong have made companies rethink their strategies and establish "contingency" plans to wean themselves off the China dependancy
- Censorship continues to be a problem, and it seems that Xi is still more concerned about his image than actually save China's citizens. It demonstrates that he will readily throw anyone under the bus if said person no longer suits his agenda. Eventually domestic sentiments will turn.
- Domestic and international demand from Chinese consumers will take a massive hit given the timing with Chinese New Year, this will make the global community to reconsider dependency on Chinese demand.
- Let's face it, whilst businesses have taken on China consumption, it's never been "nice" to deal with China. Xi hasn't made himself any friends in the process and it's likely that Global economies see this as an opportunity to "reset" the status quo to something a bit more easy to stomach.
Whilst the occurrence of the virus is not the fruits of China's own doing (like black swan events, these things are random) - negative attitude that China will face as a result of this is something Xi has created himself given that his strategy depends on continued dominance of Chinese consumption.
5
Best Case Scenerio:. A vaccine is available in 2021. In the meantime, this virus is highly transmissable like the common cold and influenza. It may well have a mortality rate similar to the flu. But as of now, we simply don't know. I do hope the Chinese government invites international virologists, vaccinologists, infections disease professionals, and public health professionals to collaborate on an international response. Let us also keep in mind that this is not going to be the last emerging pathogen with potential world wide morbidity and mortality.
34
@John McFeely
Not even our own CDC has issued a statement on how transmissible the Coronavirus is. To say that Coronavirus is highly transmissible like the common cold at this point without our epidemiologists making such statements just fans the panic. Let's wait for the actual science data to come in within a couple of weeks to know how contagious this virus really is.
Perhaps trade wars can be won? The victor takes all for better or worse.
1
If China becomes less of a dependable supplier, companies will either switch to other foreign sources (Vietnam, Bangladesh) or in time return production to the United States. But the factories here will be staffed by robots, not humans.
And neither will not occur until after a substantial transition period that is not good for the world (or the U.S.) economy.
10
SARS was the dress rehearsal; corovirus is the main event.
9
Other Industrialized nations have issues with infectious disease control. However China's dependence on rural farms leave a dangerous gap for disease control and need be addressed for the root cause of so many of these pandemics..
3
@Carey Just out of curiosity where do you propose farms be located, if not in rural areas?
3
While the economic factors are important, it is telling that, along with all the fear mongering with very little clear information on the actual illness, that that is what is most important to the U.S. media and political establishment.
For instance it is being reported overseas that most people who have contracted the coronavirus recover with systems like severe cold.
And that most of those who have gone on to develop the more severe phenomena like systems had compromised immune systems to begin with.
Now it is true that it difficult to know who to trust these days, but don’t suddenly pretend that the last four years of American disinformation, coming straight from the top, hasn’t been happening! And this is great politically for the jingoist crowd, just read some of the other comments.
8
I spoke with my friends in China last night, and they told me they’ve been locked away in their apartment for 5 days, and now they don’t even venture to their building’s lobby. “We have enough food to last another week. We’re going to follow the government’s guidelines and stay put until next Sunday.” Now if the government is telling people to be cautious, you know it’s much worse in REALITY. When I told her that Chinese businesses in New York were suffering needlessly in my view, she said “stay away for now”. As she’s a very well educated a dear friend, I’m taking her advice and more than a little worried too. China is losing tens of billions of dollars daily. They wouldn’t do that unless they REALLY had to.
88
To put this in more immediate terms, Wuhan is very similar to New York City in size. Take a look at the companion article, which I couldn't comment on. Imagine how you would feel if you couldn't get medical treatment for your loved ones with a possibly fatal disease. Or see fatalities lying dead in the street. It's not time to panic here: the pandemic will not hit you here, except in your 401(k).
7
@JoeBftsplk Only if you sell. Geo political down turns are buying opportunities.
@JoeBftsplk
Take that hit to the November election and vote all in this administration OUT.
1
If Wilbur Ross can suggest that the coronavirus is a boon to the U.S. economy, then I can suggest the opposite -- that this virus might bring the global economy to its knees so we can focus on health and humanity instead of wall street and high finance ruling our every decision.
83
@Tom J — Wallstreet is the art of knowing when to invest after economies have been brought to their knees and it’s always been that way—from pork bellies to orange juice!
If you desire another global collapse then Wallstreet WILL profit from it! According to the late and great Professor Milton Friedman, the best way to make a crooked, profit gauging system more noble is to make it profitable to be that way.
1
@Tom J
If the global economy is brought to its knees, the last thing on the current governments will focus on is health and humanity. They do not do it even with a roaring stock market.
2
I don't get the next iPhone or Under Armour clothing in time?? oh the horror...
the suffering from this virus is regrettable but being exploited by the news as a fear factory and click bait. The way humans assess risk is perplexing and due to cognitive distortions. How many people die in sweat shops / day in China? There are > 3000 people killed daily from car accidents yet that doesn't make for great news nor do we consider it an epidemic.
Coronavirus is a serious issue. However, let's realize that most people in the world, by a magnitude , are more likely to die from texting while driving.
6
@Ravi Komatireddy Or, opioid overdose.
Make Local. Buy Local.
16
Whenever I hear economists blather on about how critical “global supply chains” are, all I really hear is “American workers are lazy and incompetent.”
I grew up in the 1980s, when nearly everything was still made domestically, and I don’t remember it being that horrible. I don’t see why US trade policy shouldn’t protect American workers from losing their jobs, and American consumers from having to worry about every foreign disease, or uprising, or whatever, from affecting what they can buy.
13
@GREG — Most “U.S.” companies are no longer U.S. companies even if their products are designed in stylish round buildings with free organic fruit for the colleagues. Why on earth should an international altruistic company save your bottom when most of the world doesn’t have chairs to sit on? The bottom line is: Your (our) wheels don’t squeak enough! The solution: One has to do the hardest thing of all to encourage change: Stop buying.
6
Be prepared to pay a lot more -
The virus will be contained - the CDC expects a 30-60 day timeframe until the Chinese measures to control the outbreak begin to result in diminishing numbers. There may several thousand Chinese people who die from the virus- it’s sad.
However, it will be controlled....just like SARS
The effects on the economy and an over heated stock market won’t be lasting - by election time it will be a faded memory.
What won’t change is the number of people dying worldwide from preventable diseases.
I don’t want to minimize the several hundred people who have died since the outbreak occurred, but globally, approximately 25,000 children die everyday from preventable diseases. Every day.
When the coronavirus has been reduced to a few daily deaths, the other common cold and viruses will continue plaguing the poorest countries around the world.
I’m not sure why we don’t see more of what’s actually happening to the poor.
Approximately 30-40% of the children born in sub-Sahara Africa die before they’re 2 months old.
I’m already over this virus.
15
@JMS I completely agree with your point, but I am pretty sure that the data on the child mortality rate in sub-Saharan Africa is wrong. Under 5 mortality rates in the region is around 77 deaths per 1,000 births, I believe, which is still super high, but not that crazy 30-40% number there... https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT?locations=ZG-1W
5
@JMS
Mostly because malaria and car crashes are not contagious and can’t spread at the speed of air travel. This is spreading faster than SARS at the same point in time, albeit with a 2% fatality rate.
If the usual containment / antivirals / vaccine routine happens and works, then, yes, this should be ok. Nature, however, does not take an active role in empiricism.
Vigilance is warranted, hyperbole is not. News orgs have competing interests in informing us and making shareholders happy (=rich).
4
’m old enough to remember when Wilbur Ross said coronavirus would be good for American jobs. That was last week.
41
America has plenty of its own cultural problems. Gun violence is one of them. But gun violence does not cross international borders at viral rates. Chinese culture needs to pull together its food sales and eating habits out of consideration for the rest of the world. We ban Juuls on less evidence.
18
@Snowball Seriously, it's time for China to step up and act like they belong at the adult table.
13
So "the coronavirus" is a greater menace than SARS? The SARS coronavirus you mean?
Can we call this Wuhan coronavirus - or give it some distinguishing name at least.
1
@br "Wuhan coronavirus" is an excellent way to refer to it.
2
While the Wuhan Coronavirus has been a greater menace than deadly severe acute respiratory distress, SARS Corona virus, I don't think there is any reason to panic outside of China at the current time. Even in China the 2019-nCoV as it is now called in the scientific world I predict that the mass murderer virus will have been eliminated in 6 months.
I am an optimist and I am prepared as best as I can but that is not the reason for my optimism. The reasons are following.
1) It seems so far only around 2% mortality rate even though there is a high morbidity rate.
2) The public health world is awake and the blunders of politicians are behind us. China is in high gear and building hospitals and infrastructure at lightening speed.
3) Gloves and proper mask production and supply chain is protected.
4) There are treatments in the pipeline that are being tested.
5)The US has formed a task force headed by the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services in the president's cabinet as the head.
6) The temporary restriction on mixing of the people from PRC with people outside.
7) People will keep safe distance from other people to prevent the spread of the virus by avoiding French kisses or close affectionate expression.
8) Proper gloves and masks religiously worn along with thorough hand washing with a detergent containing soap will contain the virus.
9) Ultimately the world will unite against a common enemy and help each other to cope with this common threat.
3
@Girish Kotwal
How about you replace your use of the word “will” with “should”.
I was in a store just yesterday near a woman on her phone loudly telling a friend she just left the doc’s office testing positive for flu. She then proceeded to shop for anti-symptom meds (no rx) while staying on the phone, coughing and handling lots of stuff, standing in line, etc.
She didn’t get your memo. Many did not.
I would feel a lot more comfortable about the US HHS were it not run by a pharma lobbyist lawyer who is pals with Starr and Kavanaugh, is publicly anti-abortion, and is fine gutting the ACA.
7
@JP from CT. Good point JP . Glad my memo meets your approval and yes I agree that I should replace "will" with should. I could do with help from you to review my manuscripts. Whatever US DHHA secretary's past, failure to prevent spread of Corina virus is not an option or a choice he has. this is his chance to shine or whither away. Azar the Corona Czar sounds good to me.
1
There will undoubtedly be a global economic impact. There will also be climactic impacts with so many factories, manufacturing, businesses and transportation disruptions. Will we see a significant drop in polluting emissions, as well as the effect on air quality?
115
@Wendy - thinking the same thing here. I think the huge disruption in energy and resource consumption is going to be temporarily therapeutic to millions of people and their environments.
11
@Jenny
It will not be at all therapeutic to the vast swath of people here and abroad whose jobs and ability to paying their bills and buy food are affected by a global economic cratering. Not at all.
18
@Jenny
Planet earth and her environment score one.
Humans and their wastefulness score 0.
9
The underlying threat to the human population is consumerism. The planet cannot sustain ever increasing economic growth. Just as there are tipping points in climate change, there are tipping points in consumerism, an economic and social system that demands the acquisition of goods and services in ever-increasing amounts. A pandemic is likely one of those tipping points. The Coronavirus may not be one of the the tipping points that will result in vast, unforeseeable changes to human civilization, but it could be another "canary in the coal mine".
301
@Impedimentus
Consumerisim and growth are signs of progress. The danger with all growth is the need for a firm faundation. Basic infrastructual needs, food, water, transportation, etc. must be addressed before moving on. Compromise on these issues have led to dire consequences.
6
@Impedimentus
You left out ever increasing human population. I don't see how we can address climate change without addressing the 7.7 billion number.
25
@Carey
Dire consequences?? Such as?
In my family alone, both my brother and husband regularly travel to China for business. Their respective companies are intertwined and reliant on Chinese manufacturing.
And here at home I heard a disturbing story about someone returning from China and coming down with a cold. She went to a doctor in NY and was told to self-quarantine at home because no means of testing her. The person who told me this story and who knows the ill lady was appalled by the casualness of the dismissal and worried about who else she might take down with her.
17
@GWE Yes the CDC needs to have a national hotline
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One must credit the Chinese society/government for some achievements vis a vis this type of epidemic, skilled medical and research personnel who can diagnose the problem and work with comparable teams around the world for a solution. Photographs document a sophisticated medical response for the most seriously ill patients, and that was not present twenty years ago. A remarkable physician in Wuhan recognized the issue and was able to communicate on social media about it, although he was then hassled by police.
However, in the last twenty years, they have not done enough to prevent virus spread to humans, nor have they done enough to address virus spread across vulnerable animal populations. Better standards for animal husbandry are necessary. I am not certain that one needs to go to the extreme of western standards, where meat is prepackaged in cellophane and styrofoam, because we still have our issues with Salmonella and toxigenic E coli. It is clearly time for China to rethink the structure of its live animal markets, because the current system all too easily allows for aerosolized animal waste and byproducts to affect humans.
Regarding the issue of governmental downplaying of these epidemics, it pays to remind all that the US government similarly downplayed the scope of HIV infection in 1982. I can never forgive Margaret Heckler, Sec'ty HHS and Ronald Reagan for their delay in response to HIV.
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@Jeff
Following the SARS outbreak specialists went west and studied the structure of our FDA returned and in 2008 set up a copy.
Like ours it is under pressures from producers and like ours very underfunded.
Wuhan market was one of an unknown number of like enterprises, all having operated in the 12 years mentioned; it is not it seems a bad record.
@Jeff
An ounce of wet market regulation is worth several metric tons of rush hospital construction.
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The current interdependence of our economies and supply chains can serve as an immediate model of the interdependence of our worldly ecosystem. And with an incomparably greater number of variables and aspects not understood, disturbances to the ecosystem are incomparably more difficult to fight back or control.
If one can dream of a positive consequence of the coronavirus tragedy, it's that governments and businesses learn to respect our ecosystemic interdependence, and take every possible step to honor it. Otherwise, all the IMAX closings and shut Starbucks will finally be viewed as the sub-trivia they really are.
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I’m so tired of hearing about “global supply chains” and how important they are. If global supply chains are so fragile (and they are), maybe businesses should move their production back home.
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@Greg That ship has already sailed. The US simply does not have enough workers/ money/troops/ expertise or anything else to dominate the rest of the planet. That's not a knock on the US... I'm as gung-ho patriotic as any other American. But the days of the US ordering the rest of the world around are over. We live in a global economy and we need to cooperate with the rest of the world for our mutual survival. Our current President clearly does not understand that
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@Greg, utterly naive thinking. Not every place has all resources locally available, or the skilled people needed for making complex products. Just look at the many areas in the U.S. which clinged too long to dying industries like coal instead of moving to something for which there is actually a demand in the forseeable future.
Also, if the U.S. moved production of everything "back home" then others would do the same, and if everything was made locally then you wouldn't need to import stuff (where you could benefit from lower wages), but it also means you couldn't export (as others wouldn't need your products) so your customer base would be much smaller, maybe even too small to make it worthwhile.
It also ignores the positive effect globalization had to lift people out of poverty.
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@Bob Swygert
I agree with what you say, but we also can't allow other countries to take advantage of us. China was granted Emerging Market status many years ago, which offers many advantages. They are now the 2nd largest economy, and must trade on a level playing field.
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It already is disrupting the global supply chains. The Chinese government is not allowing the respiratory (face mask) manufacturers to ship any of their product out of the country, as their products were initially intended. Thankfully, in the US, there are at least a couple of companies that manufacture in the US, but the majority of respirators used in the US are made in China. Many suppliers here have already sold out of their stock.
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@Yogasong Reality Check i remember ceo once told me i worked for many years .Number one rule is always be prepared for disaster . Was his most sucssefull to why the company did so well. Coronavirse been coming for many years an probley when is now.If 90 percent of human species was wiped out tomorrow life would go on.
@Yogasong And might those made-in-China respirators have defects?
And might this pandemic have been worsened by the multi-step "approval process" before officially recognizing a coronavirus case imposed by this authoritarian and nominally Communist regime)?
And so what if "fortunes" are lost? Oligarchs and billionaire cabals everywhere will suffer! Sheldon Adelson may have to sell a few of his casinos; Koch Industries might have to shut down a few oil wells and stop endowing fancy art museums and universities with buildings named after them; Gordon Sondland may have to sell off a few of his boutique hotels or convert them to rental housing.
Oh, the suffering! Some folks must already be learning how to grow food, repair everyday objects and mend their old clothes, and get by with the help of friends, relatives, and neighbors. The suffering!
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We got into bed with this Communist authoritarian country years ago. We closed factories and transferred production there for cheap trinkets, and short term gain.
We are now seeing one of the outcomes of these decisions. Many saw the problems of outsourcing our manufacturing base years ago. . The chickens are coming home to roost.
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@The Realist
It is comforting to know that the corporations are now moving production to another Communist country: Vietnam?
Best to lay the ideology aside in the globalized world we now occupy and think about what can be save for domestic Supply Chains.
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@The Realist
Very few of us would be willing to pay far higher prices for everything we buy. We live in a meshed world......the average family could not afford an extra 5-10,000 dollars for the commodities they now buy. Moving all production to the US would way DECREASE the purchasing power of Americans. Goods made abroad are cheap because American workers are not willing to work for 5.00 per hour...are they?
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@Phillygirl
Yes, it's a cleft stick. Want stuff cheap but want paid well. Um! Just before Christmas I was standing near the entrance to a large mixed store here in the UK, waiting on my partner. Several assistants were piling up cheap (!) and over-packaged plastic toys in the foyer. I sauntered over to have a look. Nothing there with long term play value - I reckoned 90% of this would be in the bin by the end of January, latest. Every item I looked at made in China. What on Earth are we playing at!!??
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We need to put articles like this into perspective. The article underlines a very serious problem in the critical components area. Business leaders world wide need to assess the risks of concentrating too much of their needs in a single source or single area. In other words, every critical component needs to be multi-sourced from independent sources so that there are alternatives should there be any interruption regardless of cause, which might also be a natural disaster, a strike, civil unrest, a disease, etc.
Also, we need to put the Wuhan virus into perspective. Not too long ago the US CDC estimated that there were 8200 deaths so far this year in the US from ordinary flu, and that number was expected to grow and is probably bigger now. SARS resulted, according to the article, in only 800 deaths world-wide. Of course, there is no way of knowing how many deaths Wuhan will ultimately cause, but we are likely to face a much larger problem with ordinary flu, which occurs every year, than we will with Wuhan.
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Except you’re dealing with a communist dictatorship. Without a Free Press it is difficult to verify the final death toll numbers in Chinese government puts out. I remember years ago a naïve American health official repeating Castro‘s governments claim that all of its citizens have been inoculated for a particular disease.
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@jpduffy3 ordinary flu has killed a lot of people... BUT it is less contagious by a factor of three and it is more deadly by a factor of 200! AND people are not contagious unless they are sick, unlike coronavirus. The meme that flu is a greater threat is just false and should not be repeated.
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@jpduffy3 --->
Have you considered unknown potential of (2019-nCoV's ) mutation? Currently sustained human-to-human transmission is unknown and subject to rapidly evolving outbreak assessment.
"The typical generic coronavirus genome is a single strand of RNA. The largest known RNA virus genome, Coronaviruses have the highest known frequency of recombination of any positive-strand RNA virus, promiscuously combining genetic information from different sources. In other words, these viruses mutate and change at a high rate."
A rapidly emerging animal coronavirus evolving to infect and spread among people presents very real potential of pandemics that shouldn't be poo ... poo'd, especially with case fatality and reproduction rates currently unknown,
See: Gina Kolata .
.
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And with China’s exponential economic growth, and its ongoing-growing-geopolitical influence, come responsibilities and accountabilities which its personal unaccountable leadership, at all levels, refuse to engage.
Committed to a constricting WE-THEY, binary-banality weltanschauung, they “play” with the lives of their Peoples. Shamelessly.
The Chinese policymakers, as ideologically certain as policymakers committed to other beliefs, and systems, are challenged this time, virally,as others are not. Not YET. Daily.
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Oh, please, coronavirus, don’t come to the United States.
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@MIMA
11 confirmed cases in usa.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/03/health/coronavirus-cases-us-monday/index.html
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Maybe....maybe not the great menace. If we depend solely on US domestic sources we may well be just fear mongered to distraction. Where geopolitical considerations exist...as they certainly due with regards to China, the US government and the servile and compliant mass media will undoubtedly use the epidemic to disparage the Chinese state.
Coronavirus and climate warming may well be Trump's Waterloo. With a pandemic beginning in China and spreading now throughout the world, we may be hearing the deathknell of America's soaring economy. Don't ask for whom the bell tolls.
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@NS — If the climate is warming as you say, because of CO2 as “they” say, you will certainly have a CO2 number in mind, either from them
or yourself, towards which we should strive. The parts per million number is...?
Like it or not, America is like the little rubber stopper at the bottom of the boat that keeps the ship from sinking.
Mother Nature fighting back with her own means? In any case; this is good news for The Planet!
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Great news, this is what American companies get for selling out the American people, since the 70 everything we made in this country was rush over to China for cheap labor for all those 2nd hand goods, let them suffer now, DO you think Apple has ever cared about the USA, of course not it about their profit.
Don't work this virus is made in China, so it shouldn't last look like anything made in China, but then again they mostly likely stole from another country like everything made in China.
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Mother Nature fighting back with her own means? In any case; this is good news for The Planet!
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“We may still be in the early stages,” of the coronavirus crisis, Judith McKenna, who runs Walmart’s International business, wrote in an internal memo on Friday.
We may still be in the early stages? A powerful gift for understatement. This article's focus on China fails to grasp the
reality of what will be a world-wide pandemic with large, yet still largely unknown upheavals in every sector. Toymakers will need to rebuild inventory? Toymakers will likely be more focused on avoiding infection and securing adequate medical care for their loved ones, just like everyone else.
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A corrupt “semi imperial” (as a Times opinion article labeled it) government in China initially prevented dissemination of information about the coronavirus; this, and the lack of free press, may have accelerated the virus’ spread.
Our government can now be described similarly, with economic, health, and security threats, as well. The now accepted dictator president has already publicly downplayed the coronavirus, war injuries, effects of tax cuts and tariffs, to name a few of his empirical pronouncements. His obedient senate, state officials, and local cult members are fearful of opposing him. With the help of Fox News, they may follow suit, in these and other areas, potentially with disastrous results.
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@Dorothy Please don't forget our dictator governor. With a few edits, most of the statements in your 2nd paragraph apply to him as well
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I really feel bad for fortunes...
On the other hand it could also make us realizing we depend on each other, especially the people who live nearby and making us buying local products instead of goods being produced god knows where in awfull conditions. I'm sad for the people who die from it but this virus could be a gift for our environment. Yes, I'm a dreamer.
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Depending on low wage, unfree labor for production just to break unions and increase profits and control over the workforce by big companies dismantled an entire industrial Civilization in the West, worsening inequality, and made our economies dependent on what happened in a dictatorship that sells its workers to global companies to be exploited.
The anti-globalization movement in the late 90s pointed all this out but we were demonized by the same press that today demonizes Senator Sanders. Including by this newspaper and its writer Thomas Friedman, prophet of a flat world and the Ear in Iraq. Now we see that every land needs it's own, sustainable industrial development for its its people's livelihoods and well being and it's own independence.
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@steven Without China, you would pay a LOT more for most products.... could you afford an extra 5-10 thousand dollars for the commodities you now purchase?.... most people would answer no.
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@Phillygirl
I see this as a plus, less buying and consuming by all. If the stock market drops, perhaps we can get rid of Trump in the process. Now wouldn't that be reason enough?
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@steven Don't worry, I'll #VoteBlueNoMatterWho I just hope you will do the same if Bernie doesn't get the nomination. Our goal is to oust Shitler, no matter what it takes. Agree?
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