“Britain is going to have to come to terms with being a small country.”
Better to be a “small country” than to be Germany’s doormat.
49
@Maureen They were not Germany's doormat. They always had one foot in and one foot out and that was their choosing. The fact that Germany is a powerful center of the EU is historically not a bad thing and the villifying of Germany by Americans and Britains is a frightening form of historical amnesia. We need a strong Germany and France to keep peace in the region and economic prosperity. Do you not remember the error of the harshness of the Versailles Peace treaty after World War I...that puished and weakened Germany so harshly that it led us to World War II? My goodness. Stop this nonesense about Germany. A strong Germany is good for everyone. I am tired of Americans and Britans blaming everyone accept themselves and projecting their hatred onto France and Germany. Open a history book, please.
99
@S "We need a strong Germany and France to keep peace in the region" - really? Because of all the unrest happening in... Where exactly? Slovakia? Luxembourg? Austria? Someone whose education in European affairs appears to be limited to the first half of the 20th century (and only a partial perspective, at that) should not be advising others to seek further education. Perhaps, if one is to be charitable, you are speaking of Ukraine? Well, the EU's milquetoast approach to ensuring Ukraine's sovereignty vis-a-vis Russia certainly throws into question how capable or willing Mrs. Merkel & Co. are at keeping "peace in the region."
10
@S Keep peace in the region? Where, pray tell, was the EU when the Yugoslavia was imploding & exploding at the same time?
Besides, how can Germany 'keep the peace' when they have no military to speak of?
4
1. I’m not sure how it’s constructive to have kept predicting doom after the British public voted for Brexit. Indeed, if you are predisposed to believing that it will be bad, it would be your patriotic duty to make it work to the extent possible. Yes, that does involve telling those you represent that it can be successful - but that it will require sacrifices.
2. The predictions of doom and gloom for the UK are based, in part, on the assumption that the E.U. will continue to exist in the medium term. There is no reason to believe that the E.U. will continue to exist - at least not in its current form. It suffers from internal contradictions, economic mismanagement and is rife with bad governance. It’s handling of the various sovereign debt crises threw all this into sharp relief. This state of affairs will either force reform - likely leading to a scaled back version of the E.U. - or lead to the collapse of the project altogether.
4
What if? Of course Brexit will work. England survived and thrived for centuries without supporting an army of Belgian bureaucrats.
13
@Reader In Wash, DC
Of course historically England only "survived and thrived" on the backs of a conscripted "supporting army" of several hundred million exploited second and third class non-voting subjects across an extensive empire that no longer exists.
Not clear what exactly Brexit can do about that.
15
@Reader In Wash, DC You might want to read up a little on British history, specifically the 1960s and 70s.
7
The army of Belgian bureaucrats is of course smaller than the employees of one the UKs larger cities and they are all European nationals, not Belgians. There are less than 40,000 EU civil servants for what was a population of over 500 million. But hey, don’t let the facts get in your way.
15
Of course, it will work. It simply cannot not to. And an obvious result will be that it will inspire other EU members to follow UK. EU is doomed. It is finished. It was a good idea in principle when it started, but it's got corrupted by ideological Russophobia which led to the poorly thought through, unsustainable and costly overexpansion into Eastern and Southern Europe. That changed the nature of EU from an economic union of equals into a purely geopolitical stitch-up job with no vitality or real purpose. EU cannot change now. Therefore it cannot survive. It must and will die.
4
@David
And guess who pressed for the fast expansion to the east? Yes, the UK.
I can agree the EU should have taken longer time to engage with the deeply corrupt Eastern European nations who needed some decades to free themselves from autocratic Russian influence. But the inclusion of Spain and Portugal is a success.
10
Brexit could indeed work for the UK,despite all the vacuous dire warnings and ignorant rather smug witterings from so many armchair experts and wanna be economists in this comments section.
If you believe some of the more absurd drivel,you'd think Britain was some third world country afflicted by rampant unemployment,social unrest and poor productivity rather than say, a country like America where 1 in 5 people live below the poverty level. ONE IN FIVE.
6
And how would you define “it works“?.
Things don’t get worse?’
Things stay the same?.
Define “gets better”
I’m betting pretty much stays the same
2
The brilliant Welsh writer, Jan Morris (aka "James" before the change) wrote a 3-part history (link)of the British Empire. The one trait that comes through strongly, over and over again, is the sheer arrogance of the English in their colonial role. They were so full of themselves that you want to reach through the centuries and pages and just slap them. Times change and no one is going to endure their arrogance and insolence now. They no longer "got game". Morris writes beautifully and it is a tale very well told and a worthy read.
https://www.amazon.com/Heavens-Command-Prorgress-James-Morris/dp/0140049266/ref=pd_sbs_14_img_2/136-6231225-3778940?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0140049266&pd_rd_r=c7693dd2-7791-43da-811c-b3e4c35fd409&pd_rd_w=WCybV&pd_rd_wg=4UEQN&pf_rd_p=5cfcfe89-300f-47d2-b1ad-a4e27203a02a&pf_rd_r=KHW2V9NY4J7T46N9A11T&psc=1&refRID=KHW2V9NY4J7T46N9A11T
6
The forces that animated England's break from the E.U., are not unlike the forces that animated England's decision to break from Rome, and form the Church of England.
You are not the boss of me.
3
Other than money laundering, what has the UK got to offer the world?
8
Beneath all the rhetoric,Brexit is simple a huge money laundering scheme. The rich wanted to be able tokeep their money off-shore and the EU rules were closing in on their schemes.
7
Dear Brits, do not trust Trump to give you any special deals. He will look out for himself and give you crumbs.
3
I think Britain will do just fine
1
This will likely not end well for them. It's now a global world, and the demographic that supports Brexit is white, old and remains stuck in post-WWII times. The UK will be left behind as the world economy moves forward. For all its charming façade, it is one of the most racist, nationalist countries I have lived in (e.g., it wouldn't opt in to the Euro monetary system because the money would not have the queen's picture on it and when Harry married bi-racial, American Meghan, well, we know how that turned out).
7
or will it morph to Breakxit.
I still have not heard a single actual benefit of Brexit. Not one. It's more about a feeling of wanting control...Which Britain in fact had through MEPs. But as the whole pro brexit argument is not based on fact I cannot see how it can possibly succeed.
So far since Brexit was announced yesterday the EU has aligned with Spain regarding Gibraltar and Johnson basically indicated a willingness to see a hard Brexit happen. Good luck with that going well. I would not bet on it. Sadly the majority of people who now don't want Brexit will have to wear the cost of this stupidity. Total own goal.
6
If Brexit works, it will confirm that Trump and the conservatives are ON THE RIGHT TRACK!!!!
Aaah...the country that looted other countries for centuries threw tantrums when they it few foreigners on their land. Let’s see how Great Britain becomes without access to other countries’ wealth and resources.
6
the youth will suffer
Who is that fellow in the Union Jack suit and specs? He has been all over the place; one would like to know a bit more about him.
1
Two considerations after Brexit.
1.What will the culture of UK be like as it moves into the future?
It seems that bigotry motivated a large swathe of Brexiteers and their anti-immigrant pro-white views have prevailed. Narrow parochialism is a friend to tyrants and to the like minded. Certainly this is a blow to the country that was profoundly instrumental in giving Republics a real chance to function in a complex world. But who will be attracted to the new model? Those who seek to learn a better way forward, those who want education, experience what a forward looking culture really looks like, one that embraces difference, one that understands the common roots of all life and all humanity, one that can show the world how to make it work for everyone? I don’t think I will be wanting to visit the UK anytime soon. How about you?
2. What will the economy be like? Let us assume that Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and London leave England to be England. Not much left. Might be good pickens though. Cheap labor, great opportunities for predatory buyouts, etc.
On the other hand, maybe the UK will find a way to bury its head in the sand and be just fine. Nah!
4
At lot of wishful thinking on the part of Brexiteers. If A and if B and if C happens, then maybe we could possibly get D. Britain has been in decline for a century, looking wistfully back at its past and wishing it could return to its former glory. That isn’t going to happen. I predict that, having petulantly shot their economy in the foot, they will not take off racing toward a brilliant future, but limp along till gangrene sets in and hobbles them permanently.
4
The beneficiaries of Brexit are the oligarchs who will have an easier time laundering their money and the political con men who will help them. It's going to get really ugly when manufacturing is disrupted, if not outright destroyed, in the areas that supported Brexit. How will they respond? Are they so blind that they continue to blame immigrants, who don't even live there in large numbers? Probably. And the spiral downward will continue until these old, white bigots are gone. Same in the US.
5
Looks like tough sledding - all of that dirty russian money won.
2
If Brexit "works," autarky will become the prevailing macroeconomic theory. Even though it never worked for any other nation.
If Brexit "works," nativism will be become the cultural norm. Even though it weakened every other modern nation that embraced it.
If Brexit "works," mass stupidity and ignorance will be the methodology of every authoritarian government. Even though every slave society ultimately collapsed.
If Brexit "works," Mammon is God.
2
The West’s three pariahs; USA, Britain and Israel need their own club now so none feels too alone.
3
Boris Johnson lined up a bunch of industry predators waiting to sup at the public trough. Maybe the question is ... Works for who?
They followed Trump's MAGA scam, apparently inspired by Steve Bannon, where the votes he needed came from the very groups who would pay the dearest price.
2
What if it doesn't?
3
Name 10 things that the UK can export to the US. Quick. Off the top of your head.
5
Yes indeed. "What if Brexit works?!" Akin perhaps to "what if trump turns out to not be a vulgar, cruel, misogynist, racist president?"
4
It's not a matter of thix it or thats it... COMMERCE will prevail.
1
Considering the 21st century behavior of European central banks (government policy?), it is time for somebody to something different. I see this as a sign of life in an otherwise moribund continent.
1
Contrary to what the elites in Brussels and Washington want, the world is moving towards more devolution of political power. That is demonstrated in the Scottish and Catalonian independence movements as well as the resistance of Kurds, Uighurs, and Rohingya to government suppression.
The world - and the US - is too diverse for a one size fits all government. Individual freedom and decision making at the lowest level should be the goal of politics.
1
The Brexiteers are not going to get used to being a small country. People voted for Brexit out of a strange mix of arrogance, resentment, xenophobia and truly toxic nostalgia. It got them out of Europe, but it won't get them what they want. Their leaders, who are fools, bigots and would-be tyrants, can't give them what they want, even if the leadership actually wanted to. Spoiler alert: they don't.
So they will not negotiate with the EU in good faith. They will fantasize about a partnership of equals with the US, which won't happen. Trump doesn't think anyone is his equal, and too many Americans in general think of the UK as a kind of theme park, or a studio lot for streaming shows. What the leaders will end up doing is finding a new group of targets to punish: immigrants, the left, anyone who isn't pasty white, the Scots, Ireland... They'll be no end of the villains they will manufacture.
It's not a question of whether it will end well. It's a question of just how bad it will be.
8
I am fascinated about the level of dishonesty on whole national level of English. They completely lost retail positions in EU /tesco vs lidl/, they are loosing on manufacturing fields to GER-FRA cooperation, most of the Britons voted to leave because thier "dislike" towards eastern EU migrants. But the most fascinating to me is that BAME voters /former commonwealth/ decided for brexit once Roma people from Romania, Slovakia, Hungary started showing up in Midlands/Birmingham area....Roma people once expelled from India and Pakistan /as the lovest class/ started showing up in UK in large numbers once migration barriers fell. And that was the tipping point in my opinion. But of course, none of this is in the news like Daily Mail or Mirror...
4
When pigs fly, Brexit will work.
4
It isn't going to work -- the world is too interconnected for any one nation to make it 'on its own'. Britain will be at the mercy of it's need to import food, materials, labor, etc. It will become a small, stagnant backwater, dreaming of past glory as it totters into senility and obscurity.
5
I am rooting for Britain and I am not even British. Anyway to get away from Germany is always a good thing. Oh and France? Macron, one of the 3 stooges, come on Britain. Let's not forget the other stooge, Merkel.
1
Jeremy Corbin's demise as Labor leader is the only good thing to expect from Brexit.
Racism was the impetus and a lack of understanding of the problems of regulating fisheries, energy and inequality made the right-wing Brits want to go back to a time when they could fish where they wanted, drill where they wanted and keep out the refugees of Western meddling.
London's loss of the financial center will doom the UK from its previous world leadership.
Boris is a mini Trump. unserious. radically reckless.
3
Anti-English or anti-British comment seem to prevail here. As with most things, we start with attitude.
5
I for one did not find our relationship with the EH as 'deeply unsatisfying'. Stormy at times, a contrary voice is always good. What I do find 'deeply unsatisfying' is that just over half the country has deprived just under half the country of rights and freedoms they have held and used (if they had any brains snd gumption) for decades. That is not democracy, its tyranny.
The old lie that we shall struggle but our children will live in paradise has been trotted out by stalinists and fascists alike in the past, and is now simply bring used by opportunists and reactionaries to justify their blatant grab for power. One can promise anythkng for 20 years in the future. What matters to ordinary people is the now.
Saddest of all is the realisarion that a substantial portion of my countrymen are unpleasant and ill informed bigots, who are supporting this nasty clique.
I remain a patriot and a Tory (a real one), but also a European and look forward to the day that sense, reason and progressive humanity are once again paramount.
6
There are both pros and cons when it comes to trade deals. This time the trade deal to be completed by year end will lead to Scotland, followed by Northern Ireland and finally Wales leaving this old world driven British nation to being just another small country with only moderate offerings to the rest of a very competitive world.
1
Best news yet for both Scotland (seeking and soon achieving independence), and for the possibility, at long last, for a united Ireland. Good luck England. There's a lot of charm in English villages, some lovely castles throughout the country, stately manor homes and Oxford and Cambridge. London, which had been boomibg as an international financial capital will downgrade after Brexit. What else but a divided, and in many cases, impoverished people who think they can stand alone in an increasingly global society. This is the same stupidity we see here in the US with Trump supporters. It is naive at best and often based on ignorance and racism at worst. Trust me England, it's downhill from here. It will take years to recover from Trump. And this foolish endeavor will also be the bane of England's existence. But hey, at least it bodes well for Scotland and Northern Ireland. So much for "great" Britain.
3
One has to look at the underlying root cause that drove Brexit, Populism 'thanks Mr Putin' and Xenophobia.
Both of which in my view are flaws in the national character of a people.
Now that the British have their Brexit it remains to be seen if there will a sudden exodus of the workers from the former Eastern block countries whom apparently have filled all the super high paying jobs that the' Brits don't want to do'.
There will of course be no more free trade,or freedom to access EU countries without travel documents.
I am certain the people of the EU or their elected representatives are in no mood to give the British the same accommodations currently enjoyed by non EU members like Norway and Switzerland .
The great US trade deal that the' Orange One 'promised will be a big Nothing Burger ,or at least nothing that benefits the British. In order to get the conversation rolling the first talking point from the US side will be the National Health Services and how best to privatize it. Giving the British an opportunity to pay sky high health insurance premiums monthly, caps on what the Insurance companies pay for , and higher than the moon costs for medications.
Then of course there is the dealing with the millions living in London, and its suburbs, Scotland and Northern Ireland all of whom vote Remain.
Brexit will be interesting experiment to say the least ,
1
I think there’s a danger in thinking that if Britain doesn’t totally collapse and turn into an Apocalypse Now, Road Warrior world that Brexit was a success. No! Lack of total collapse of civilization is not proof that this was the right thing to do. If they’re measurably poorer and less happy at the end of this sit show then before it wasn’t worth it.
3
In theory Brexit could work if HMG invested very heavily, on a never before seen level, in modernising our infrastructure, investing in innovative research, and easing immigration laws to attract the best and brightest to these islands.
There is no possible way that any Tory government, let alone this one, will do any of these things.
4
Sinderland. The home of Nissan's largest factory. In the event reorganization of Renault Nissan the French have been put in charge of Europe. In the coming shrinking of the manufacturing foot print of the auto industry any custom restrictions on this factory will leave it stranded and likely abandoned in favor of Continental factories.
Honda is closing and moving production to E Europe and Turkey.
Toyota?
Peugeot Opel FCA?
4
The majority who voted for Brexit knew absolutely nothing about Northern Ireland and the invisible border it has within Ireland, and when they became aware of its significance they couldn’t care less. In fact several Brexiteers announced Ireland could “have it back”. Most people in Ireland were stunned at the significance of what Boris agreed.... to have a customs border outside Northern Ireland, down the Irish sea thus cutting off Northern Ireland. Next step is a border poll, which nationalists will win, then reunification of Ireland and Northern Ireland will happen. Scotland will follow. Even Shakespeare couldn’t make this up; the drama, the hubris, the breaking up of the United Kingdom.
5
The truth is that Johnson did not deserve to win but Labour deserved to lose for sheer pig-headed incompetence.
Corbyn is no leader, his enablers are fantasists, his vocabulary is obsolete and the give-away menu offered everything but a workable strategy to achieve power, confirmed by a colossal own goal when Corbyn agreed to go for an election on Tory terms. These are not people you'd trust to organise a two car funeral.
Above all they failed to counter the Leave fantasy whose core is the unsubstantiated belief that the EU and immigration are responsible for the post industrial disaster areas of Britain; an easy target to knock down one would have thought because it's a lie, but nevertheless the travesty was actively encouraged for years by many Labour MP's even though it played against them and let the Tories off the hook. Political self poisoning.
The carnage was the result of the abject surrender of Britain's industrial capacity, not as a global exigency but as Tory 'economic strategy'. It caused the steepest decline among G8 countries and unemployment for millions . Disinvestment and offshore tax evasion, all convened managed and directed by a Tory regime, the same thinking that's driving Brexit. All forgotten by the very people to whom it happened, not to mention their supposed champions, Labour.
Brexit, of course, is the next chapter in this rolling scam a reboot to capitalise on the clear and evident fact that people in pain can't think straight.
6
Simply presenting the views of "economists" like Patrick Minford and joke politicians like Daniel Hannan alongside those of people who actually do know what they're talking about and aren't serial liars does not make for a convincing argument for how Brexit could actually work out to be a fabulous idea. These Brexiteers' ill-founded arguments have been well known since before the referendum, and reasoned rebuttals to them have been ignored by those inebriated with jingoistic throwback visions of world domination. How well is the buccaneering free-trade Minford's view of a Britain untrammeled by the need to follow EU rules and regulations in order to trade with our biggest export market going to work for those folks now employed in auto factories in Sunderland? Once they're out of work because of daft notions of sunlit uplands that have been conclusively demonstrated not to exist, will they suddenly become AI tech geniuses? Oh, right that might take...awhile, say, a generation or two. In the meantime, what? "It is hard for people to miss what they never had," Mr Landler writes, but the thing is people are likely to be missing their jobs, though it is unclear whether they really will be well enough informed under the circumstances to know they should hold their hero Boris to account for their misfortunes.
5
The British wanted their departure, they got it. It does have a huge price, they have to negotiate with many countries. They cannot whine anymore. It is not 1900, they cannot throw their weight around. Good luck!
1
And so the forces of the entitled in the UK have finally slaughtered the strawman that they created.
Now what new strawman will they find to distract the populace?
3
"Britain is remaking itself yet again, cast off from Europe"
Beg pardon, the past participle "cast" implies that Europe booted Britain. "Casting off" would be more accurate.
Remember, "Fog in channel; continent cut off."
2
As of this morning (2 Feb), Johnson has said there will be no alignment with the EU for tariffs etc....and is basically dumping the already agreed legal 'deal' with the EU which was passed a couple weeks ago. He is saying all sorts of things about the EU that are simply not true. He is attempting to cast the EU as uncooperative villains and creating a negative atmosphere for any negotiations. One can only assume that Johnson (not the strongest on work ethic) wants a 'no deal' Brexit which is what the hard right of his party want. This really would cause big economic problems for everyone in the country. But it is the easiest option for work shy Johnson...and the way his mates make the most money. There are no 'sunlit uplands' for the people of the UK. They are being sold down the river. Already Johnson has broken several campaign promises...this already is an unholy mess.
7
So many complex problems, so little understanding and so little time. Are we capable of learning from the testing of a complex issue such as Brexit? Think of Brownback and his experiment in Kansas. Illinois would be an example at the other end of the spectrum.
4
All that happened is that citizens like me can no longer live and work freely in Europe. This is like an American citizen now being restricted to living in Michigan. This is simply a loss. There is no practical, factual gain to compensate - just feelings.
6
Only if you believe that the UK and the countries of the EU are not sovereign states. That is exactly the problem.
2
The United Kingdom has a misguided belief that it’s still a colonial power that holds sway in the world. Wake up - no one cares about a tiny island off the coast of the EU! In actuality, Brexit is the beginning of the end for the UK. We will end up seeing Irish unification (finally!) and Scotland voting for independence. What remains, will be a hobbled version of the UK - smaller, with less gravitas, buckling under its inability to negotiate international treaties/trade agreements. Little Britain indeed.
7
Britain is a highly educated, industrial democracy. She adjusted to the loss of the Empire fairly well. Her relations with the old colonies is good. There is no danger that she would collapse!
Would she fare better alone than as part of the largest Free Market? It is past time to brood over it. Besides anyone's answer would only be a speculation. The more pertinent questions are:
1.) Can UK hold together or split apart? The burden falls on the English leadership.
2.) Brexit coincides with much uncertainty in the World economy and markets. Hopefully, the proverbial English empiricism and adaptability would stand her in good stead.
I thank the NYT for publishing an opinion piece that differs from the majority of the comments I've read about Britain's departure. Those comments,such as ones made by Roger Cohen in yesterday's edition, suggest that Britain has no hope for a prosperous future outside of Europe and that the decision to leave was a triumph of the uneducated over their betters.
Yet nations outside of the EU with their own currency such as Switzerland demonstrate that prosperity and non-EU membership are not mutually exclusive categories. Let us wait now and judge later.
1
The title strikes me as silly. Brexit has worked already. The UK is out.
Alas, an export-oriented country will always be a rule taker. Simply put, if British car makers wish to sell their cars on the continent, they must mount the steering wheels on the other side. An alignment of rules is inevitable.
I presume no British politician wants to be blamed for a renewal of the Troubles. If the Irish border is supposed to remain as open as it is, the solution will be a Norway-type relationship with the EU no matter what Johnson is going to call it.
Furthermore, remember that the Leave referendum was borne out of unhappiness with immigration. Britons felt that the massive influx of workers from the EU, particularly from Eastern members, was changing their towns beyond recognition. It remains to be seen who is going to fill the immigrant jobs once new regulations kick in, and whether the locals will be happier with the newcomers.
Most importantly, this articles does not discuss the high likelihood of Scotland leaving the UK. I am unsure whether England and Wales will see the rosy economic growth predicted here, once Scotland is out.
3
English friends tell me that Eastern Europeans flooded English towns and sold their labor cheap, putting English workers out of work.
The Brits are a wily people who withstood the Blitz with courage and humor.
I went to college in London for a year and fell in love with the Brits who welcomed me warmly.
Good luck to the British.
4
More power to the Brexiteers if it works, but what does it mean?
The UK has never embraced EUC - case in point, it has retained £ instead of going all in with € - and the concept of the union has been flawed to begin with and the bureaucrats have been more about fortifying their own positions than about advancing the union ideal anyway. So indeed getting out might not be as catastrophic as one could imagine.
However, the whole UK idea is about expansion dated back to its sea power, East Indian Company and the Opium War. Scotland and to a lesser degree N Ireland and thus Ireland remain a thorny issue. Australia, New Zealand and Canada may give the UK lip service but they are really commonwealth in name only.
Obviously, Brexit is what the monarchy wants to retain its diminishing power. But believe it or not, Harry & Meghan exit may very well be the shape of things to come. The Royal Family is still very rich, for sure. But Brexit really caters to the wrong crowd. The Arabs and the Asian Tycoons may continue to patronize London for their own benefits but the best and the brightest like the Eastern European technocrats and specialists may want to find more welcoming pasture. So can an Empire shrink to grow? Time will tell
If Brexit were only a reaction to the outrage culture of the ultra-politically correct European Community and its laws being foisted on a much older polity...Belgium itself is only about 200 years old, having previously existed as the Spanish Netherlands and then as a French enclave under Napoleon, for example, not to mention the 300+ tinpot polities that united under Prussia in 1871...France, Spain and the UK existed as unified countries during their colonial expansion of the 17th and 18th centuries. Let Britain find its footing without having to brook the interference of inane overreach and overregulation from Brussels.
2
"Britain is going to have to come to terms with being a small country.”
They were once an empire, now they're just a small country with virtually no natural resources. Brexit will not make them great again anymore than Trump made America great again.
3
Brexit will be (thankfully) the end of the UK. Ireland will be united and Scotland independent. The English can hope that the rest of the Island will want to keep them around.
Have the Ravens left the Tower yet?
1
Well, it has already 'worked' in that it got GB out of the EU, and the Conservatives have gotten a clear majority. Did the Leavers really have any other goal, or plan? Brexit is was simply the British version of "Build he Wall" or, "Lock Her Up", a rallying cry for the far right party to gain power.
3
“Professor Minford contends that Britain could add 8 percent to its gross domestic product over the next decade if it is able to strike down all trade barriers...”. Sounds like a great plan - Britain should consider joining a tariff-free trading bloc comprised of its closest neighbouring countries.
4
First to equal the European Union with a bunch of bureaucrats is missing the point. The EU is the most freely band of Nation States ever conducted.
Second talking on free trade as a solution to everything simply forgets in what kind of state the planet already is in.
EU is currently discussing, as part of a green deal, to put a price tag on carbon emission during the production of products as entry barrier for goods produced with high output of carbon emissions.
UK is according to the NYT making currently half of its trade with the EU. Will not be easy to change directions quickly.
And there is a lot of evidence that the Brexit campaign was a deeply flawed false and disinformation campaign.
3
Post WWII Britain changed itself radically because the veterans of that war were determined to not be treated as their fathers were after WWI.
When I press my friends in the UK who voted for Brexit they mostly say what is written in this story: their desire for independence, the right to make their own laws and not to be ruled by Brussels, etc., well at least at first.
When you dig down they talk about all the foreigners in the country who take unfair advantage of social welfare programs, the crimes they commit, terrorists, and the ones who will work for cheaper wages and take jobs away from British people. Go into any pub or sandwich shop in London and you would be hard pressed to find one native born white Brit. It is xenophobia rather than racist that has driven them to vote Brexit in many cases, they fear white eastern Europeans as much as Africans or Arabs. As story on the BBC last evening was about British fishermen who have long complained about foreigners (other EU countries) fishing in their waters. Brexit they feel will increase their catch and make them richer. Only problem is that more then 60% of their catch is exported to the EU, if that blocked by the EU or hit with high tariffs they will have no place to sell their extra catch. This is just one small example, there are many more in the automotive and aviation industry and others.
I wish them luck but it will not be easy, the EU will make it hard on them so as not to encourage the others with similar ideas
4
One excerpt from your reporter captures it all: "In the early 1980s, Margaret Thatcher led a free-market revolution that dismantled parts of that state and nurtured a British nationalism that fully flowered in the wrenching debate over Brexit." Similar to Reagan's deregulatory reign in the US, Mrs. Thatcher created a monster that eventually consumed her country. Beware of achieving what you wish for....
2
Why does everybody think that Scotland will exit the UK? The couldn‘t keep the British Pound and would have to start their own currency. They would not seriously consider joining the doomed Euro currency. The would have to apply for EU membership and any of the EU members could veto that. Spain for example, which fears to loose Catalonia. England would set up a hard border, effectively disconnecting Scotland from the continent.
1
We should stand ready to help our friends because that is what friends do for each other. My concern here is that both Britain and the US are led by two utterly untrustworthy people, we need to remember that it is the British people who are our friends not the leader of the moment.
1
Since the end of empire Britain has lacked an explicit industrial strategy. This has led to a notorious lack of R&D investment. Thatcher and her heirs exacerbated this with an over reliance on the market to make what should have been strategic decisions and thus we find ourselves in the middle of the 21st Century with an economy distorted by the requirements of a overly powerful financial sector focused on the global economy and located in London.
Nothing about this will change with our exit from the EU, in fact it is likely to get worse. Especially for those communities in the North and the midlands who hoped that wresting control from Brussels would help. It won’t. Westminster will double down on the gig economy, and low value added, low regulation, manufacturing for the country while London tries to find a way to continue that global financial role.
2
One thing that is common to all cons: the promised payout is always coming, never here. It's comforting to know that Boris wants Englanders to wait 15 or 20 years to find out they've been conned. Remember that 4% growth and reduced deficit that Trump promised us when he gave $1.5 trillion to the wealthy? In 20 years will we have forgotten that promise too?
4
Supporters of Brexit assume that a trade deal with the US will generate the boost they need to succeed. On its face, this seems like a tricky assumption. For one thing, everyone knows they badly need this deal so they will be negotiating from a position of weakness. Also, the UK economy has a heavy bias towards services as opposed to goods, and we don't need their banking nor their oil.
2
What exports exactly are the British expecting the rest of the world to be waiting for with bated breath.
The two most well known British brand names currently available in the US that spring to mind are Land Rovers and Jaguars , both companies producing gorgeous vehicles with abysmal reputations for reliability.
The third import the Mini Cooper the most reliable and also popular vehicle one associates with Britain 'adorned with their Union Jack motifs is ironically ' made in Germany by BMW.
I have 3 siblings who until recently lived in the UK , My sister and her family have moved to Greece full time ,where my English brother in law has his business. My brother moved his head hunting business from London, to Dublin as he needs access to his EU clients unencumbered . My younger brother and his wife both doctors in the NHS are moving back to France , my sister in laws home country this week .
So in effect three highly productive well educated families have left the UK within the past two years courtesy of Brexit . I also have four cousins two of whom also plan on leaving within the year taking their business and families with them.
Their choice to leave was based largely on their having no desire to raise their kids in a society intolerant of diversity in every aspect.
7
There has always been complaints about the number of civil servents in the EU making life in the UK difficult, but there are about 30 times more civil servants in the UK than in the EU. Boris Johnson says that there will now be an explosion of dynamic activities and Innovation, as if they had been prevented by the EU from carrying them out. The Tories have neglected many of the underdeveloped areas, even though the EU has paid for many projects in these areas.
How is the UK going to close trade deals in the near future with the US and other countries when the are going to be mired in negotiations this year and beyond with the EU. The UK doesn`t have the resources to tackle both? How is Industry going to cope with car manufacturing leaving, as well as the loss of qualified workers from Europe, whose statuses are unclea? How is the infrastructure for Import and Export controls (harbous for example) going to be built up by 1.1.21?
After all the lies and promises, I am not optimistic.
5
The world longs for British Leyland, Lucas and Marmite. Everyone will be fine.
4
@john, what were those things you said world longs for? Never heard of those.
2
No need to be complacent indeed. Look at the strength of eurosceptics in many EU countries, and you realise that Brexit is a wake-up call for EU policy makers to further improve decision-making in the EU institutions, communicating about the value-added of the EU, and advance. Many EU citizens are no sufficiently convinced.
5
Once the German industrialists swallow their wounded pride and remember that Britain is their fourth or fifth largest market (China, Germany itself, the US, either the UK or France depending on the sector) and craft free trade agreements with the UK similar to NAFTA, then Brexit will really only have been about other tenants of the EU, especially the free movement of people. Merkel and her German dominance of policy in Europe have imposed heavy prices in their "partners." Forced austerity through a decade of economic languishing, hyper regulation, and openness to refugees beyond their capacities. Scotland can do as it likes. The Irish will stay with Britain. The UK and the EU will be fine
5
Please tell me, where is that second Germany from where UK customers can buy their Mercs, BMWs, Audis etc? Most people in the UK who can afford to get one of those luxury vehicles won't really be affected by the markup they'll face. Once the other carmakers leave, which they will do since production (60-80 per cent of which is exported) will be economically unviable after Brexit, all British consumers face the same markup. The UK is 80 per cent services, and has voluntarily chosen to leave the only trade bloc in the world with free movement of services.
3
Brexit is ultimately the realisation that the future is being built on the shores of the Pacific not on the banks of the Rhine. Britain is a small country, we at least recognise that we have long ago given up on dreams of empire even if lazy foreign commentators accuse of living in a state of nostalgic yearning. The trade we have with the EU is based on the old economy, high-end German cars represent the past, Britain needs access to Californian AI and Shanghai based health tech. Britain has, depending on which rankings you look at, about a dozen universities in the global top 100; the EU has possibly one or two. There are individual Cambridge Colleges with more Nobel Prize winners than France. That is going to be the source of our future prosperity if we can exploit it. The question was will the EU help us do that? The answer was a resounding no. Whatever the EU has done in the past, it is now a crumbling bureaucracy destined to go the way of the Holy Roman Empire. The world is now flat, Brexit is a recognition of that fact.
7
And why would the UK need to leave the EU to do pursue those sectors? Sweden and the Baltics are behind several success stories in IT, Skype for instnace. Pharmaceuticals are doing better in the EU than they're doing in the US. As for universities and Nobel prizes; sure, but many recent prizes are the result of collaboration between universities across Europe, and a lot of research funding comes from the EU.
9
@John Stroughair
The folk supporting Brexit were well at the other end of the educational spectrum from the Cambridge Nobel Prize winners. They most certainly do not embrace a world that is flat but could well be flat earthers.
4
Remainers turned a legitimate and complex question regarding the impacts of EU membership upon resolution of routine political and economic problems into a polarizing and simplistic debate about the Rise of Fascism in British society. Ironically, the absurdity of the extremists on both sides is precisely what turned the matter into a valuable democratic exercise.
The closeness of the population's extreme split between Leavers and Remainers reenergized Parliament and the Courts, forcing the country to initiate reforms that were long overdue. The Supreme Court's rise, coupled with the decline of the House of Lords, and serious renewal of the argument over conversion of the UK into a federal structure were accompanied by energized public interest in the creaky bureaucracy of Parliament. The American concepts of separation of powers and judicial review have even begun blasting their way into this new vision of government and law. By contrast, the byzantine structure of the endlessly expanding EU bureaucracy looks like madness.
Brits haven't seen this level of national overhaul and renewal since the Act of Settlement and the Act of Union in the early 1700's.
3
Endlessly expanding EU bureaucracy? The EU makes do with 1/10 of the civil servants that the UK has. As for the powersharing, Boris Johnson is planning on doing away with both challenges of government in court, and the ability of the House of Commons to scrutinize trade deals negotiated by the govrnment.
2
Why will Brexit not work? Britain will be free to make its own decisions on its future interactions with rest of the world, one country at a time. Just like the USA has. The British want to emulate the path to American success and for starters they have elected a Trump like prime minister in Boris Johnson who trounced the party of the mayor of London Sadiq Khan. The British also want to make Britain riddled with problems great again and if it means they are going to restrict the influx of migrants shoveled by Angela they will do it. Immigration to Britain will also become more skills based like Canada and Australia than it is now where chain migration and asylum seekers receive priority.
I suspect that Brexit will also mean greater boost to the private health care industry while also keeping the NHLS strong.
6
@Girish Kotwal Unfortunately the UK is not the US, nor is it Canada or Australia. All those countries have huge amounts of natural resources. In addition, the US is a large and diversified economy with a gigantic internal market and enough economic clout to make other countries do things its way. The UK has none of that. The main “asset” the UK has had is its international reputation and links with other countries. These now risk being trashed.
10
The EU has freedom of movement for services. The UK economy is 80 per cent services. Services are notoriously hard sells in bilateral trade deals. Boris Johnson has openly declared that the UK will not adhere to EU standards and regulations. 70 cer cent of UK trade is either directly with the EU or via the EU-negotiated trade agreements or arrangements with close to 100 countries. They expire for the UK on 31 December 2020. The typical trade deal takes 5 to 7 years to negotiate. The note of optimism stricken by the author is entirely without foundation.
8
@Girish Kotwal
Just like the US has? Sorry the empire is long gone. Can’t bully other countries like the USA can do.
2
While I wish them the best, it seems unfair to try to imagine the future of the UK without considering whether the United Kingdom will in fact remain united.
5
Brexit might or might not be an economical success , although I simply can’t see how a medium-small county like the U.K. can stand up to giants like the USA, the EU and China, but it is already a moral failure of depressing proportions.
All this talk about “ trade “ distracts from the true core of Brexit , one which is based on emotion and feeling.
Up until 2016 the public was not concerned about trade and in many years time , as this mess becomes the new normal , they won’t be again. International trade is complex requiring study and direct experience , and most of its treaties are massive tomes full of mind numbing dull detail. To think that Kev the joiner and Gary the bus driver were sitting around their local Harvester ( a provincial chain of cheap pubs ) in left behind Newcastle or Middlesbrough spending their evenings discussing about the WTO is ridiculous.
It was only after being informed by tabloid headlines that this was important , that suddenly everyone started to behave as if they had been pining for trade deals with Uganda since the cradle.
For Kev and Bob , Brexit was an irrational decision based purely on feelings of resentment towards other groups who they feel were doing undeservedly better in society than they were, mingled with a crude English nationalism they felt was being ignored by London.
This is the original sin of Brexit: a phenomenon based on small minded faith and never framed factually which will stain the years to come no matter what .
17
Exactly, and the UK's problems are all of its own making, and there's zero need to leave the EU to remedy them (education, housing, regional divides etc). The EU is quite simply a convenient scapegoat for unscrupulous politicians. Things are going to get a lot worse in the UK before they get better again.
5
@David Mecoli
Your apt description also works in Trump-landia.
4
As an American living in the UK, I feel similarly to how I felt following the 2016 election. I want to be open-minded, but I can’t square that with much of Brexiteers’ rhetoric, which ranges from implicitly to overtly racist. That rhetoric is shifting. Note that even this article posits only the economic advantages of Brexit. But many people voted for Brexit specifically out of an aversion to the presence of nonwhite immigrants. I understand and share the desire to engage productively about the short-term future, in which Brexit has happened and lemonade might as well be made, but it’s important not to forget Brexit’s reactionary roots. As in my home country, there’s work to be done to figure out how to make our world more just. Brexit won’t be the panacea that many voters sought, and if it’s rebranded as a purely economic ploy, they’ll continue to seek solutions elsewhere. Only by honestly acknowledging the true breadth of voters’ motives, and by holding Brexit accountable to those motives, can we understand how to build a 21st-century state that’s both prosperous and humane.
14
There is no such thing as "free trade". All countries protect their special interest groups, or join in trade associations with other similar economies.
The UK will find it very tough in a world which will inevitably see it as weak, and sentiment will play no part---special deals from The Donald? Don't make me laugh!
Brexit was entirely driven by a right wing media and English nationalism. All the powers repatriated from Brussels are to be concentrated in London--including Scottish fishing which was the responsibility of Scots since 1920--now to be run by English politicians, and probably used as a trading pawn. One of the reasons many Scots now want independence.
The UK is still run by a tiny clique who go to Eton/Oxbridge, and rise through society on the back of their "old schools ties". Only financial services do really well, but the bulk of the population rely on old under-invested industry and areas of the country with poor services and bad life chances.
To leave a huge trading block and be cast adrift, is an act of hubristic lunacy.
19
There are troubling aspects to the wild celebrations of the British leaving the EU referring to "independence day" as if liberated from its largest trading partner. Nearly half the country voted to stay seems to be conveniently forgotten.
Trust in the European Union has evaporated after years of anti-European snipes by the tabloid press claiming Europe infringed on the English identity. To quote Mike Pompeo "the tyranny of Brussels is over" confirms the driving force in this scheme. The EU caste as the enemy within; it was an easy message to sell to an angry public tired of austerity. What BREXIT means to the British economy is not really known. But for sure the negotiations will deliver some shocks if the EU decides to pull the rug from under the British government to teach them a lesson in the art of war. Cool heads need to prevail; not so easy with Boris Johnson as prime minister with his jocular refrain and lost in translation humour.
9
From what I understand, the output from a totally English workforce would be, well, second to most. As in the U.S. the unpleasant jobs in the UK went to immigrants who were motivated to move up, the jobs that most felt natives felt were "beneath" them, in wages and stature. Let's see how that works. If I was a company like Toyota, I would be building in the places these immigrants came from, central and eastern Europe. No tariffs, lower wage costs, and no attitude. Just honest hard work.
17
That's exactly what the multinationals are doing. Voting against Brexit with their feet.
4
Brexit cannot be successful because it’s not a plan but an act whose consequences are not anticipated well enough to either monitor nor the measure. People will claim that it benefitted or did not based upon purely subjective considerations.
7
Troublesome predictions galore, none of which by the very nature of forecasts, will come exactly true.
Only these points are certain:
- The UK is in a transition period for the duration of this year. Which means it is currently and for the next months still enjoying the market effects of full membership. What businesses are really interested in is the future relationship - and since that has not been haggled out yet, and since the UK has to renegotiate the details of over 500(!) international agreements, each of which usually takes several years to flesh out, only one thing is clear: Brexit will not leave the headlines in the next 12 months, and is unlikely to do so for years to come. That is just the nature of the beast.
- How Brexit will play out can only be forecast more precisely when we know the future relationship. If Brussels and London fail to come to decent terms quickly, things could get quite dire. If they don't, Brexit will display little of its touted advantages: Either the UK gets a free trade deal with little say, or no free trade deal with lots of trading hurdles, none of which can be compensated even by trade deals with the US and China (look at current volumes). If the EU were to give up its core principles to grant the UK unprecedented access, it would give up its raison d'être. I would not bet any money on that.
All that makes it more likely that London will cave in and celebrate small successes as a great gain, while the EU lumbers on.
9
The most difficult question will be how to work out a negotiation strategy the can be supported from a human same as from an economic and political perspective.
From a economic perspective:
Europe is certainly much less dependent on UK then the other way around. UK as a less then 70M people economy will certainly have no priority for economic focused politics compared to China, US and rest of Asia.
From a political perspective:
If you give away too much of free trade and special treatment for the UK you increase the "risk" that the Brexit may work out which would send a catastrophic sign to rest of Europe and to future right parties which may be elected in different EU countries in future.
From a human perspective:
As Europe wants to maintain their role as "the world`s ethic benchmark" (yes of course you can argue if that is the case or not) you cannot just execute a "hard liner" negotiation strategy because you have to keep in mind that the UK without any big partner can be catastrophic for Britain individuals.
4
I don't see any contradiction here. If the UK is unwilling to follow the standards and regulations agreed by EU28 > EU27, why should the EU be expected bend them? It's surely down to UK politicians to act responsibly and stop lying to its own people?
2
Brexit was about freedom from the shackles of the bureaucrats in Brussels. It was about reclaiming the British identity and deciding on their own future and not having to satisfy the demands of the other EU members. Freedom, which seems to escape the EU Elite, as well as their US counterparts, is the right to choose wrongly. Yes, wrongly. What it means is to not have a government that controls every aspect of one's life so that it doesn't conflict with the guidelines established by those who govern.
Britain will the first of many countries who will decide that the cost of membership is not worth the loss of freedom.
3
Contrary to the predictions in your last paragraph support for the EU has grown in every member state. Even the populist and far right parties have dropped leaving the EU from their manifestos. As for freedom, your post reminds of the largely illusionary allure in today’s world, for medium and small counties, of national sovereignty in a world dominated by trading giants. For your simplified version of sovereignty we should read nationalism.
Every time a country strikes a deal it carves out a piece of its sovereignty, judging that the gains outweigh the losses. This is the real world that we must live in. Not one in which reasonable compromise is equated with a loss of freedom.
The U.K. is about to find out, the hard way, that international negotiations on trade, which it hasn’t conducted in over 40 years, are strictly about business and not friendship.
12
@Mike Whenever I hear people say Brexit is about "freedom from the shackles of the bureaucrats in Brussels", I always ask them to name the top five shackles. They never can. It's just an empty slogan.
2
In my mind, Brexit will EVENTUALLY work. The UK has many institutions going for it. The question is when...? It has been woefully ill prepared for the transition. And during this transition 3 4,5...10+ years, the older and less well off (probably also the ones who voted for Brexit) of UK's society will suffer.
1
"With Britain likely to hammer out some sort of trade agreement with the European Union, the most alarmist predictions about Brexit...are not likely to happen."
If Britain reestablishes a customs union with the EU, they will be pretty much back where the started before Brexit, except for having gained control over immigration, which may have been the point all along.
7
Not so. Firstly, the U.K. has specifically ruled out membership of the customs union. Secondly, the big gain for the U.K. would be trade in services which isn’t covered by any trade deal. That would require membership of the EU internal market. The U.K. has ruled that out as well. It has also ruled out membership of any EU body, such as Eurotom (nuclear energy) and Europol (policing) which involves any jurisdiction or oversight by the European Court of Justice. There’s not much wiggle room left here for them. Even if they joined the customs union they would still be immensely limited by non-membership of the internal market. But these are their own choices. Good luck to them.
5
Its pretty clear that Brexit supporters have to think like this. What else could they predict after pushing so hard for Brexit. Good luck.
5
I think Brexit is a big, but not catastrophic, mistake. It a huge mistake for the Brits but not for the world, because the UK scarcely matters in the global economy. Their economy (GDP) is about the same as the states of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio combined. So if those states seceded from the US, are you saying that they would be stronger as an independent country than as part of the US? Please. This idea is the product of xenophobia pure and simple. When major companies ink their plans to relocate to Dublin and Frankfurt the money that matters will have spoken with their feet.
25
The one thing that is certain is that Brexit is a huge loss for the EU and a slap in the face of Germany, the EU’s puppeteer. There are any number of EU countries whose voters are increasingly fed up with the bloated, faceless, bureaucracy in Brussels. They envy Britain’s hard won freedom, and are watching closely,if not actually rooting for, England’s success. They understand that the EU has overplayed its hand in trade, has over bureaucratized everything from manufacture to marketing, has underdefended Europe militarily in an ever more dangerous world, and laid Europe bare to despoliation by masses of unassimilated and hostile migrants. They watch in frustrated awe as a Tump lead US strides like an economic colossus be it because or despite his Presidency, and know without doubt that this will redound to Britain’s favor. Above all, they sense that the era of Europe is over, it’s people culturally and demographically defeated, and that the future is in Asia and America for most of the world while Europe’s future is probably in the Middle East and North Africa.
6
The future is here, it's a mess, it's China, and humans are dying there and animals are being tortured, the air is unbreathable, and they are destroying species. Still, I feel a surge of joy when I see Chinese students on the bus attending our local university. Things were so horrendous in China when I was a child and still bad there when I was their age, that I have hope for the future of the young people who have to clean up all the mess. If the Chinese can't be free in China yet, at least they are free to go around the world and pursue opportunities for advancement. FYI public transport is better in China than it is here. Let's hope that they get around to improving more aspects of daily life, especially the lives of persecuted minorities and the lives of animals.
1
“The elemental case for Brexit is the democratic one.” True enough. As shall it be when Scotland exits the UK.
At least Britain will get what it wants: less regulation, including fewer environmental protection rules and the right to overfish. Freedom!
10
I’d like to zoom in on one tautoligic argument I hear a lot and also spotted in this article why Brexit is good for the UK. The claim from Brexiteers that “Britain will be a magnet for investments, trade and innovation now that they are unshackeled from the rules of Brussels”.
I wonder what drives the economics behind this, given that Britain is at best a stand alone market of 60 million consumers, assuming the british union will not break up. A mere blip on the global economic stage that will have to agree with much bigger powerful parties (China, US, EU) a trade agreement that will make them better off, while also navigating the mutual exclusive demands of these parties if it wants all agreements at once. Unless of course, Britain can provide unfettered access to the European union at more favorable terms than dealing with the EU directly. Which hardly seems a reasonable to be expected outcome if you start from the premise that Brexit is all about getting out of the European Union.
7
The British voter has called the EU bluff, now perhaps common sense will prevail. The Germans want to keep their largest European export market for vehicles, and so on, and the British access to Europe, so a decent trade deal would be mutually beneficial if the EU can control their political impulses.
2
@Dactta
"Germany" exports nothing. German companies do.
And German car companies make cars all over the world. They can (and do) export say Volkswagens as easily from South Africa and China as they can from Poland. (Helpfully, South Africans even drive on the same side of the road as the UK.
The UK will likely get cheaper cars. What they will lose are all the manufacturing jobs in the auto sector (which will go to South Africa, China, etc).
The German companies will maintain their revenues.
8
Germany will continue to sell cars for about 10 years, in decreasing numbers. Then, China will produce all the cars.
Very good article. This reminds me of how Québec separatists realized before the first referendum on independence in 1980, that Quebec should keep a monetary and economic union with the rest of Canada. The referendum question was formulated that way. There was a lot of thought put in the Quebec question. The British question was ill-conceived and brought out the protest vote. Now the Brits have set the wheels in motion to something over which they have little control.
7
The EU should perhaps accept and embrace a separate UK's desire for lower standards. Brexit does not alter the facts of geography. The UK without EU markets and subsidies will soon lose all of its farms but this land will offer a convenient location to send nuclear and other toxic waste.
Win Win!
8
Britain is on the absolute forefront of Western politics in the 21st Century. We Americans should pay close attention over the next several years. We are fortunate to have such an experiment happening before our eyes with such a close ally.
5
To me brexit fells like the whole Y2k computer scare. Lots of talk leading up to it followed by a dull thud. My humble opinion is that brexit will be neither a great calamity nor a catalyst to great success. I do look forward to it receding from the headlines.
4
@FW The point of the Y2K 'scare' was to prepare so that the 'thud' was proof of is success.
2
Oh dear. Y2K wasn’t a “scare”. The predicted disaster didn’t happen because the problem was identified and massive resources put into recoding software before it became a major problem. The exact opposite is true in the case of Brexit. If you are going to draw analogies please do your research.
2
We will have several new countries soon. They are a United Ireland, Wales, Scotland and "Britain Who?". Let's kick them off the security council.
9
Personally I thought it was a bad idea but the Queen wanted it and I have to wonder if she knew what she was doing. She is somewhat aged.
They will always have their footy, even if all the owners are foreign.
Populism strikes again!
3
Virtually no one commenting here appears to hope things turn out well for Britain.
I find that sad and scary. It's a strange kind of judgmental arrogance that has taken over much of our thinking.
9
@Talbot Economies run on more than hope.
You’re correct. Nobody is “hoping”. NYT readers are not Brexiteers and are looking at the facts. Not hope. There is nothing sad about it. Brexit is all about the “sunny uplands” and with “one giant leap we threw off the shackles” kind of thinking. In other words it’s all about hope and not realism. The world is as it is and we must engage it from that point and not wishful thinking. Hope is indeed sad if that is all that the Brexit project is about.
3
What if Brexit Works? Pigs will fly...
7
Free trade? This was about free trade?
Please, this was about people in small towns making high wages in the British auto industry. Wake me up when cars that match Toyota quality are manufactured by British companies and are accepted by British consumers. Wait until Lucas Electrics, otherwise known as the "Prince of Darkness", is resurrected.
34
@Djt
Come to think of it, British automobiles, with the possible exception of Rolls-Royce/Bentley, have always had a bad reputation. Much of that have had a lot to do with Lucas Electric.
When I lived in Los Angeles, there was a firm that remade Jaguars with Chevy drivetrains and Bosche electronics. Suddenly, it became a very reliable car.
And on occasion, you might see a Jaguar with a license frame or bumper sticker reading, "My other car is a tow truck."
It has also been rumored about for years that, the reason the British prefer warm beer is, their refrigerators are powered by Lucas Electric.
Of course, this has nothing to do with Brexit but, since you brought up the subject of British cars, I had to share a few factoids.
13
@Djt
This was about the loss of identity and the loss of control over their own daily lives. Bureaucrats in Brussels, with no care about local conditions, norms or mores, instituted policies and regulations that conflicted with local traditions. It was about controlling a nations borders. It was about using monetary policies rules to stimulate the economy without having to request permission of the Germans.
It's not about the .05% of the economy that was tied to the automobile manufacturing industry.
5
@Mike None of which are/were true...
Britons - or whatever you choose to call us - have never had control over their daily lives. That is what governments are for. The simple choice is, a government more concerned with the elitist few increasing their wealth - & control - at a heavy cost to the whole population, or a government concerned with improving the lives of ALL citizens, whilst eradicating poverty and homelessness, with a miniscule increase in cost (taxation) to all - and virtually imperceptible to the mega-rich.
On immigration, far more immigration occurs from outside the EU than from within it.
On the economy, "we've never had it so good", since 1973, certainly not in living memory.
On manufacturing, we haven't had a manufacturing industry to speak of since the Thatcher/Conservative government of 1979-87 systematically destroyed it, in favour of the 'fake' economies of IT & finance.
11
People forget that for many centuries before the E.U., England had many deals with European countries that kept changing. Not being in the E.U. doesn’t mean that the UK will have no relations with Europe. Norway and Switzerland are not in the E.U. and haven’t gone up in flames. Neither will England.
2
Norway and Switzerland are not in the EU but they are in the core institutions of the EU while non members. Both are in the internal market and both have freedom of movement. They have literally nothing in common with the position that the U.K. finds itself in.
5
@reader Norway (member EEA of and EFTA) and Switzerland are closely associated with the EU, though – almost like a membership without voting rights. And Britain has always rejected either model: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf
3
The proliferation of apocalyptic claims in politics is not helping anyone.
5
Britain is likely to become more desirable to do business and find work than the EU. Europe's "maze of rules and regulations".. Germany's ability to carry southern Europe may not last furthering a decline.
Unless Brussels administrators,rules and regulations are thinned the Brits may well again have to rescue the Continent again !
4
I couldn't believe many would believe Brexit could deliver anything. But, the Brexiteers won (by 48 to 52%), so I was wrong. If I was a younger Brit (say under 30), I would really be very angry to loose the opportunities of staying in the EU would offer. (Fortunately I'm not a Brit, and very unfortunately, north of 30).
I still think it was the wrong choice. Good luck to the people of the UK, you'll need it, particularly with the leader you have now. I only see a poorer, less relevant, less important Britain over time, probably loosing one or two bits as well.
12
Joining the EU was dubious in the first place but it probably needed to be done. Even those on the inside of government for the first few years were skeptical about its likelihood of success but it needed to be tried because the UK had its own problems and maybe the EU membership offered at least some partial solutions. The UK kept the pound as a sort of safeguard of its independence and planted other measures to attempt to relieve the burden of Brussels and European dominance. There was always a potential Brexit or a dissolution of the EU into parts.
Is leaving a good idea? We won't know for 5-10 years. The UK will be mostly England and Wales with Scotland and N. Ireland reverting to their drives for non-domination. Old messes will re-emerge, and some won't be a continuing problem. Time has changed the places.
In the British culture is a need for a social hierarchy: it's in the blood. Expect more stratification... but they do this very well, and it has worked for them in the past... and never really died. There will be movement to recapture cities and neighborhoods that have become "overtaken by foreigners". This will not be pretty and may even lead to an enforced deportation movement.
British industry has some bright spots in technology but manufacturing is in horrible condition. There is too much consumption of liquor, and efforts to curtail alcohol and drugs have failed. There is serious homelessness along with other social problems. Not good news.
Good luck.
5
@Swamp Fox “the UK had its own problems” – that’s a nice paraphrase for being bankrupt ;o)
1
At first, Brexit will depress the economy. Let's see how it does in the longer term.
1
Pretty much a given that economies of scale (at least in the current global environment) tend to perform better than smaller ones. Brexit seems to have been a socio-political movement. Could turn out to be a big mistake. Best of luck anyway.
3
Lol so England gets a divorce and then has to sort out its terms in the next year? Oh you all got you Monopoly game backwards, what leverage are you working with now?
Why would the UE give you any favorable terms? I know the USA won't give you anything without a steep price. Why should we? It's just buisness after all.
It's a dog eat dog world. I just hope you don't have to pawn the Crown jewels.
12
What if it works? You mean like validating anti-immigrant sentiments.
3
Brexit is what the people voted for, and Brexit has occurred despite the efforts of so many for so long to keep it from happening.
I think the Brits are going to do just fine; and the sky is certainly not going to fall as so remainers warned.
44
@Mon Ray
Did you know that California, the state, has a larger GDP than the UK does?
Like the United States (notice how United is in the name), the EU draws it’s strength from being a united entity, with common goals, mechanisms for diplomatic conflict resolution, and borders that are welcoming to all member citizens.
Imagine if California just decided to stop being a part of the United States. Would their world end? No. Would the lose every single advantage of being a member state in a world leading economic bloc overnight? Yes.
It is pure hubris of Brits to believe that they are stronger apart from the whole. Just history repeating itself. With Russia on Europe’s doorstep, with intentions on kicking the door in, the citizens of the UK have in all likelihood made a gigantic tactical error. Of course no one can see the future, but that doesn’t mean hypotheses based on historical data are invalid. The hypothesis that Brexit was a catastrophic error is based on thousands of years of human history.
28
@Mon Ray
The British train has not yet left the EU station. In January 2021 the show hits the road with tariffs and border checks between Europe and the UK. Chaos?
Mark Landler gives an excellent insight of the risks of this grand illusion assuming that countries actually exist as singular entities. Even Trump realizes his trade war with China has been a damp squid. For the UK the basic problem that so much of the national infrasture is foreign-owned by QATAR and EU companies like EDF and Renault-Nissan. The government must invest in home production to build a new economy as suggested by the Labour party. Things will change rapidly because Europe will not allow Britain to get any advantage from BREXIT. For Ireland the border stakes could not be higher; don't look now?
8
@Mon Ray
Sadly, a country reborn in infamy is doomed to failure and breakup
3
What if "Brexit" works? Britain will resemble the world of "Mad Max" combined with "A Clockwork Orange."
4
It'll work fine for people like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson, the people who've put their money elsewhere (like Ireland!) and don't have to care about imports and the NIH...the rich, in a word.
8
Yes, UK had to compromise with other EU members when it came to trade deals with third countries. However, the EU had a lot more leverage in negotiating those deals than what UK now has. On the balance UK was better off inside the EU in terms of trade deals. Also, UK had the power of veto in the EU when compromising with other members. Someone needs to explain to brexiteers that EU membership was a voluntary compromise of their sovereignty much like having a job is a compromise in which a person gives up some of their personal freedom in exchange for money. It's not irresponsible to keep a job even though you have to trade some of your freedom to do so. The key word is "voluntary" participation. I thought that was common sense.
5
The men that drove Brexit have no desire to bail out the Midlands or spread the wealth. And if someone thinks this was about fishing rights they are crazy. This was about taxes. Particularly how not to pay them. Northern Ireland has no choice but to leave. There will be no money for them. Scotland will go too. Working class people will have to rejoin Labor, but they will not get back some of the industry they will lose now. England will be small, and not very good at it either. Ultimately, Johnson is like Trump - more of a destroyer than a builder. He has already shown us his best moves. But unlike the US, which is so big it will take years and years to destroy it, the UK only needed one critical catalyst. Remember London in the 60's - here it comes again. But it's ultimately good for the EU, even if it scares them a bit.
8
I would be a little cautious on making predictions that Brexit will be great:
Small matters of what Ireland and Scotland will do haven't been factored in.
Half the country disagrees, and that can't just be papered over.
Customs issues?
Assumes there won't be a global recession with or without help from climate change. Europe's growth is small; the US is going to have to pay the piper real soon.
I assume there were some positives about being part of the EU. They are no longer there.
I won't compare a positive outcome to when I see pigs flying, but one might check the imported pork from Denmark or Germany for feathers.
3
While I wish them the best, I hope the Scots remove themselves from this disaster and that the Irish find a way to separate themselves from this. It is highly unlikely that GB will flourish from this disaster as they most certainly have not garnered good will with the EU nor with their trading partners. Never forget that This country is very likely to be under different leadership next year, a leadership which favors the EU as well as other alliances that have been abandoned in the last four years.
7
If Brexit works, very good. Almost 50 years ago, I could not understand why a country would give up its sovereignty, but for decades afterwards I was lulled into thinking that a borderless Europe could be a good thing.
Visiting Greece in 2001, I saw all the EU-backed building that was going on and exclaimed, "How will Greece ever pay this back?"
And of course it couldn't. The Euro was a false hope, and following Berlin's orders as to what it could grow and what it could export was Greece's downfall.
The EU's generous, but misguided, welcoming of economic migrants was likewise a disaster, and Greece was on the hook for that too.
So now we'll see how Brexit goes.
6
@B. You don't have the faintest idea of what went on in Greece. The EU sponsored buildings and roads were a gifts from better functioning and richer EU nations, not a loan. That's part of the EU cooperation that we try to lift the weaker nations to a common level ground. Ask the Irish how it worked for them.
Unfortunately the various Greek governments ran a large deficit and buried their nation in a debt they couldn't honor, and the capital markets smelled blood and raised the interests the Greek national debt to a punitive level. The rest of Europe had to step in and guarantee the loans to keep interests down.
7
@Old Dane
And why did the rest of Europe have to step in and guarantee the loans? Loans go bad elsewhere all the time - bad news for those doing the loaning (they lose some of their money) - and bad for the borrowers (folk are unlikely to lend much to them again for quite some time). But nobody else has to step in.
Could it be that the EU and those doing the loaning were in fact one and the same?
2
Nope. The EU Eurozone countries stepped in because without financial assistance Greece would have gone bankrupt leading to even worse social, political and economic problems. But Greece had to choose to accept assistance and they did. They also chose to stay in the EU and the Euro. The U.K. which often cites the EU’s treatment of Greece as a reason for leaving did precisely nothing to help Greece. It was the Eurozone countries that bailed Greece out.
4
“Partly that may reflect Mr. Johnson’s determination not to be triumphalist after a debate that divided the country. Partly, his critics say, it reflects the prime minister’s lack of fixed convictions. He used Brexit more as a vehicle to amass power, they said, than to impose a particular worldview.”
Bookmark that folks. It’s very telling.
1
Britain will be fine, they will struggle to get their footing and then they will do what the British always do, they’ll figure it out.
54
@Ron
As I recall, "muddle through" is the expression Britons often use.
1
@Ron
They Brits also managed to force a sun that never set over their Empire to dive into the Irish sea.
Do they really "always figure it out?"
Are you sure they have not figured out a sure way to become a wholly owned subsidiary of their former colony "across the pond?"
6
Good luck to England. Soon, it will no longer be "Britain". In the next 5-10 years, both Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave to be part of the EU. England will still have Wales. God bless the Queen.
3
It's going to be tough sledding for the folks in the UK, they don't realize the beneficial position they were in, in the EU. They let tribalism get the best of them. Tying their fate to Trump's America isn't going to help them very much because Trump's America is also the result of tribalism. Trump's base will see them as elites and socialists - only the very wealthy will benefit and then only in the short term. One defeated imperial power grasping onto a declining white nationalist imperial power won't end well.
6
Wishful thinking... A country of 66 mio.will doubtlessly have difficulty to compete economically.
1
Define 'works'?
Is it, the number of things perceived as 'better' after leaving the EU? Or, the number of people who perceive to be 'better off' outside the EU? Or is there some other imaginary yardstick by which it will be judged to have 'worked', or things to be better?
2
“Disruptive change can be beneficial for a country,” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “That is, in a sense, what Brexit has accomplished.”
Obviously, the Uk has managed to put itself in limbo. They no longer have a say in the EU rules but have to abide by them and the UK has not come to an agreement trade with the EU. If a trade agreement is not come into existence by the end of the 11-month negotiation period, the UK falls out of limbo into sho knows.
There is no “disruption” here, just hubris.
3
Well, chances are very high that it won't work. Since all Brexit promises are based on lies it is very hard to imagine that that unicorn Brexit is about to happen.
Soon there will be grim negotiations and the crash out Brexit is just around the corner in 11 month.
60
I'm not sure about Brexit, but I know that the EU was a disaster for the Greeks, so it obviously doesn't work for everyone.
@Two in Memphis Pessimists rule, right?
The arguments in favour of Brexit could theoretically be used in favour of Scottish independence. Here’s betting the Tories won’t have a bar of it.
2
Well, smaller might be better after all. Even if it restricts economic growth. Not everything should be measured by material indexes, especially in a firat world country where there is a lot of wealth (the more urgent issue may be redistribute it in more equitable ways). The standard of living is fine, why covet more and more things? There may in fact be more control of politics and a national vision this way. If things continue the way they are going in the US, some exits from the Union by big (liberal) states may not be such a bad idea. I can't bear continued Republican control of government for years and decades to come. Not in the name of "economic growth." Maybe is time to break up a bit mammoth countries (even smaller ones are in tune: Catalonia is coveting independence from Spain these days).
3
The success in implementing Brexit is entirely due to rabble-rousing propaganda and servile MPs obeying billionaires’ orders. Having demonstrated exactly how to manipulate the public and implement rule by sound bites, Britain serves as an example for others eager to employ these devices for their purposes. Notably the owners of the GOP and half the Supreme Court and about 30 State Legislatures.
11
Depending upon one's definition, Brexit could "work". But nationalism and a trend toward less cooperation worldwide will make addressing problems of climate and technology harder and could even prevent solutions that would otherwise save millions of lives and make the planet better for our species as well as the others. The trend toward nationalism is not a solution for problems that inherently cross man-made borders.
11
The British can go to Trafalgar Square and think they're back in the days of the Empire. They're all delusional.
"What if it works"? What if the sun really does rise in the west?
17
@george eliot No-one in Britain who was born since 1960 ever thinks of the "Empire". It's just not relevant to us.
It's a term I really only heard on moving to the USA from Britain; I think American's think of and refer to the British Empire far, far more than the Brits.
It's like Cowboys and Indians...something in the past.
12
The integrated economy of Britain and the rest of the EU is a huge hairy monster that few people understand. Least of all the host of working and lower middle class Brits who voted to leave. Britain is not going disappear. It's a very rich country. However. there is absolutely no doubt that Brexit will leave Britain somewhat poorer. How much poorer is the only question and this depends on the trade relationship that Britain ultimately establishes. Several think tanks and the British Treasury reckon it's going to mean an economy that is +/- 10% smaller than had it remained in the EU. This seems plausible. It's already lost 2.5 to 3.5% of potential GDP since the referendum and they haven't left yet.
Some major industries are going to be devastated including autos which I know very well. It's already happening. They published the 2019 auto output numbers 2 days ago and output has fallen by 26% since the referendum to 1.3 million units (the lowest figure since the recession of 2010). The UK auto industry is wholly foreign owned; takes 45% of its parts from Europe; and cannot sustain a JIT production regime without frictionless trade. Honda is leaving in 2021; Ford is closing its engine manufacturing plant in Bridgend; JLR is moving Land Rover Discovery production to Slovakia; and the PSA plant at Ellesmere Port is running at a large loss and hangs by a thread. And all this against a background of about 20% over capacity in the European auto industry.
23
@John And the Nissan plant in Sunderland which is a JIT Japanese owned assembly plant. Sunderland is in the north east of England and is not doing well economically. Thatcher got that plant built there, one of things she did that she was most proud. The managers of the factory told the workers if Brexit passed the future of factory would be endangered. The workers went ahead and voted for Brexit anyway, effectively voted away their jobs. The assembly plant will probably be moved to Spain in the next couple of years.
3
Doesn't Norway pay for the privileged of its relationship with the EU. Why would the UK get something Norway has to pay form. Do the think a potential trade deal with the US scares the EU. All three pretty much trade the same things. the UK in the pipsqueak in ether trade deal. We should all wish the UK well but they shouldn't labor under any illusion this spit will be easy or painless. The best they can hope for is in the long runs it was worth it. Not a forgone conclusion.
12
Well Norway is a different story, they got an EU deal in the 1990:s and furthermore UK doesnt want a deal like that. The will bee like Singapore.
::
2
@Tia J
Well Singapore does not have deal with the EU - it's also very small and part of Asia.
2
@Tia J
Maybe London could be like Singapore but seriously the UK is not going to be like Singapore. I don't recall the UK being an economic powerhouse when it joined the UK, do you.
Like Singapore is the UK version of Trumps moronic MAGA
2
If the people I see celebrating Brexit are any indicator then Britain is doomed. Now that Britain is no longer part of the Union they are a direct competitor. Germany will go hard for their financial sector and their manufacturing sectors will no longer be competitive against other nations in the Union. Britain prospered because it was considered a gateway to continental Europe. They have now lost that.
As far as being the Singapore of Europe, what a joke. The conservatives sold this lie to the people to get Brexit over the line All it means is lower taxes for the rich and more austerity for the poor. So those people you see celebrating don't know what they have gotten themselves into. Unfortunately the poor British are easily manipulated.
48
Why speculate about the future of GB? The “genius” US President promised Mr.Johnson the greatest trade deal ever - so get ready for harsh tariffs on British luxury exports to the USA! For anyone believing that there will be “deals” that benefit GB: I don’t know anyone getting good “deals” why being desperate - and GB will be desperate when the real Brexit will happen towards the end of this year.
9
I would have voted Remain but I honestly hope this works out for the best. The ideal scenario is that it quells the rabid xenophobic voices in the UK, encourages some healthy policy competition between Britain and the UE, and draws a divided Ireland closer together.
4
It is not going to be an economic catastrophe as long as Britain is willing to adhere to some minimum conditions for trading with the EU. It is however, profoundly stupid to give up any influence she could have on EU policy, Neither the EU nor Britain are better off with Britain cut off from the inner EU sanctum. It remains to be seen if after trade negotiations it will still be Great Britain or Little Britain with Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland joining Ireland.
8
That someone is seriously asking "What if Brexit works?" demonstrates eloquently what a reckless and irresponsible act it was to lie voters into approving an action that no one had a clear idea how to accomplish, or what its consequences would be. This is more akin to how lemmings behave than how humans are supposed to.
10
@Peter Aretin Sort of like passing the bill so you can find out what's in it.
It would be ironic if Britain "prospers" from Brexit. But the triumphalism of the Brexiteers, their leering hatred for "Brussels", the white nationalism, the stated preference for the breakup of the UK over continued membership of the EU - all of this and more reveal the real impetus behind Brexit, which was ignorant xenophobia. If that is part of a recipe for prosperity, so be it. But it seems like a reactionary preference for Little England rather than the ballyhooed birth of "Global Britain".
7
@Martin Daly Agree it was xenophobia that drove Brexit. But I'd take issue with your adjective "ignorant". Those who voted for Brexit were mostly highly cognizant of the changes that rapid, uncontrolled immigration had inflicted on their communities over the last 20 years.
by the way, I'm a remainer.
3
@julie
Rapid uncontrolled immigration? There are some 3 million EU citizens in the UK. But there are many many more immigrants from the former UK colonies, aka the British "commonwealth".
The EU citizens are more productive, with a higher employment rate than the native English and third world immigrants, and they fill out jobs the English haven't bothered to educate their kids to do. And it is everything from skilled blue collar workers over health care professionals to high level scientists. If all the EU citizens leave this year, the UK will take severe damage.
The UK never bothered to implement the limitations on the EU freedom of movement and they do not even know how many "immigrants" they have.
5
I am rather fed-up of Americans telling us how to live: sheer arrogance. Also, people here don't "think they are Great" - they live on the island of Great Britain, hence the name.
8
What If Brexit Works, It wont.
8
Brexit will end up being a plus for the EU (no more "we're the UK and we're special" to deal with), as well as for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales after they've left the UK and separately joined the EU (they'll no longer be ruled by English patriarchs who really never cared about them).
As for England, it's really hard to imagine how being economically isolated could ever turn out to be anything but a big minus. But, the English are welcome to surround themselves with a big wall and jump in a latrine if they want to. Enjoy.
11
“Disruptive change can be beneficial for a country,” said Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics. “That is, in a sense, what Brexit has accomplished.”
It has been beneficial for a country: Russia.
Aside from that, the professor's remark seems a bit premature.
Brexit's happened (technically) but now we're in a transitional period where essentially nothing has changed (other than that Britain no longer has a say in the EU). Brexit has yet to actually _accomplish_ anything, and what it will accomplish that could seriously be considered 'beneficial', nobody knows.
11
I wish Britain well and hope they don't crater.
Brexit doesn't look like a smart economic decision, but maybe the price of lost materialism is worth some nationalistic pride.
Will be instructive to see how people feel when it starts to pinch.
8
Britain's only product for centuries has been marauding imperialism. Since, because of modern geopolitics and a lack of resources, it really can't do that anymore, it is doomed. I was recently disappointed to learn that indeed, my family lore that we're descended from British aristocracy as well as from the Irish, proved true. I am ashamed of the English lords from whom I have a considerable amount of DNA for, especially, what they did to my Irish ancestors. I hope Brexit makes it possible for Ireland to be reunited since Northern Ireland will undoubtedly want to reap the benefits of being in the EU, which is what led to Ireland's Celtic Tiger era. England deserves to rot in isolation.
9
@Sweetbetsy
You're an American descended from British aristocracy? I myself am British, descended from good Irish peasant stock. which one of us should be held responsible for the ills of Empire?
1
Brexit will work...work to reunify Ireland 20 years sooner than it otherwise would happen and give Scotland sovereignty 10 years sooner that it otherwise would
Those time frame could easily be reversed and happen much much sooner.
Particularly the Irish unification given the financial hardship Brexit is imposing immediately on the Northern Ireland's economy.
9
What does the U.K. produce that America wants? Maybe whiskey from Scotland? If the U.K. breaks up and Northern Ireland and Scotland leave the union, Britain will be a small country like the Netherlands and no longer a world power. Without free flow of goods and people from the EU, Britain will be a poorer aging country. The benefits of immigration have allowed the U.K. and USA to greatly expand economically, stopping immigrants will hurt both countries which is the underlying reason for Brexit and the America First policies. Long- term both countries will face slower levels of innovation and face a China that will surpass the USA economically and turn the tables to dictate trading terms to the EU and the USA. A weaker U.K. and USA only benefits Putin.
9
No doubt the rich will do very well, thank you, and that is all that matters, as is true in the US.
14
I hope it works but I dont think so, continental Europe cannot allow it to be a success too much at stake for them.
1
If the people of the UK come out as well or better than before Brexit. That would mean that Brexit worked. I hope they benefit. There are too many open questions to make a guess, now, to use Trump's favorite expression, we will have to wait and see.
4
I fail to understand how Britain, giving up any role in governance with its largest trading partners, the EU, thinks that it will be better off making a hypothetical deal with the US.
Didn't the British notice the tariff on steel from Canada to the US, for "national security" reasons. The last place you want to be with Trump is to be dependent on his beneficence.
27
@Mitch Lyle Canucks have understood to be nice to Americans for the simple reason that they are our biggest customer. Normal people take good care of their clients.
Unfortunately, your president doesn’t understand this. Canada is the US biggest client. Instead of being nice, he’s a bully.
Trade between the US and UK is less than half of what it is between Canada and the US. It took 3 years to change a few paragraphs in NAFTA. Brits have been told so many lies about Brexit, a free trade deal with the US is one of the them.
11
I suppose there could be a reward for guessing correctly about the future of Britain but the reward should only be for a lucky guess. And there will be someone guessing on the other side. And the unsurprising thing is that one of them might have the better guess. That might be newsworthy to some when the winning guess is determined in 15 or 20 years, but the guess now is not as interesting to me as the arguments behind the guess.
2
England's tortured processing of the seven stages of grief continues apace.
Bargaining and anger will be the most destructive.
Their bargaining over trade deals will confirm and amplify the source of anger that drove Brexit—it having joined the ranks of second tier economies.
With Ireland’s economic vibrancy and the economic burden Brexit creates for Northern Ireland the unification of the Irish Republic will move on an accelerated pace.
Scotland voted 62 percent to remain in the EU.
Norther Ireland voted 56 percent to remain in the EU.
Northern Ireland and Scotland will become targets for Brexiters’
anger now that they no longer have the EU to kick around.
As trade negotiations prove England to be a beta economy it will pour salt in the open wound as Northern Ireland and Scotland organized to depart a less than great britain that in fact is a tattered England.
14
@Mary Elizabeth Le
How little you know...how can Scotland leave without a section 30 order? and in NI the majority are loyalist who are very true to the crown.
Please do not comment on something you clearly do not know about.
@scarlett scotland is at this moment testing the idea of it's own advisory referendum. That may yet become a disruptive influence within the UK. They may seek other more radical pathways out.
Seems you wish to deny the same "opportunity" to Scotland and Northern Ireland that you apparently took for granted in England's brexit fetish (and it most surely was an English thing).
3
There was a dismay crossing the border today between the UK and Ireland - so many individual deaths and tragedies that went into that simple journey that the author of this article is unlikely to understand.
The English failed to appreciate sufficiently that the strength of their economy in the world was due to membership within the EU economic bloc.
There will always be a struggle between national innovation and cultural harmony within the EU , however, most nations have found it acceptable as power flows between larger and smaller nations or where advantages and disadvantages of particular EU federal policies prevail. There can be no one-size-fits-all European but given powerful economic blocs externally, neither can there be an isolated nation acting outside these blocs as England would wish.
The brexit referendum was an empty gun pointed at their own heads, after today, that gun becomes loaded.
21
The UK may be too far down the socialist path, worried to kick of the EU-like habit, complete with new AI-based cameras to track their people ever more.
But, if they took note of their Hong Kong success and decided their island should be similarly wise, they'd go for free markets, free trade and regain the power of their financial markets.
2
@David
Ironic, given that the seed for the current unrest in Hong Kong is the crushing, systemic inequality the CCP inherited from the British, and then did absolutely nothing in the past twenty-something years to address.
4
@David
HK is a semi authoritarian city state of just over 7 million people whereas Britain is pluralistic Social Democratic state of 65 million people and their financial market is already the second most important in the world. Until recently it was adjudged the most important in the world but Brexit has already eroded that position and it's going to be further eroded when at best they have only equivalence with European financial markets. Somehow I don't see the British embracing Chinese authoritarianism. The lack of understanding of some Americans is quite astounding.
10
@David The UK had the largest trading bloc on the planet to trade within. Now, they're only hope is to get a quick deal from a mendacious and capricious reality tv star posing as a President across the Atlantic. Good luck.
11
The issue behind Brexit is the desire of the Euro fanatics to undermine nation states with shared sovereignty. The idea of a federal Europe has never been given democratic approval by the people of Europe. At this rate the UK won't be last nation to want out.
6
@Trevor
How does the EU undermine nation states? I have not noticed that France is no longer France. That applies also to the other member states. Who are the EU "fanatics?" States do give approval of the EU because they are elections, a fact that seems to be sourly unknown by many people who write in.
Assumptions and half-knowledge do not make a good basis of judgement.
24
@Birgit
Greece?
Greece? So you think the EU undermined Greece? Greece was bankrupt because of bad economic management and endemic corruption. It fiddled it’s national accounts, lied to other members of the Eurozone and tolerated tax evasion on an industrial scale. Then it asked for everyone to entirely forgive its enormous national debt and give it a free pass. There was a massive debt write down agreed and then the Eurozone counties gave Greece a massive loan so they could stay afloat. Greece also opted to stay in the Euro and the EU. A wise move seeing as how many Greeks have experience of the worthlessness of their former currency, the Drachma. The U.K. didn’t lift a finger to help Greece or provide any loans. Instead they criticised from the sidelines. The EU didn’t undermine Greece. They saved it.
3
As we say in Denmark: There two kinds of nations in Europe, small nations, and those who have yet to realize they are small nations.
In the EU the UK is uniquely unequal. The wealth, income and real services not remotely evenly distributed among UK regions and with fast rising inequality among citizens. The UK bureaucracy is also the least effective among comparable Western European nations. It has very little to do with the EU, and leaving the EU will not solve any of these challenges for the UK.
All this talk about EU "bureaucracy" is a hoax. Yes, we democratically decide common rules and regulations, but they are not anymore "bureaucratic" than for instance US rules and regulations. The entire "bureaucratic" body in the EU is less than 40,000 employees for a population of +500 million.
The flawed propaganda concerning "immigration" in the UK is very illustrative. Refugees from the constant Anglo-American wars in the Middle East is not a EU matter but a matter of sharing the burden. Freedom of movement inside the EU is only for those who can get a work within 3 months, and there are other limitations too, though the UK never cared to employ them. The vast majority of UK "immigrants" are not EU citizens or refugees, but from the UK commonwealth.
It is perfectly OK to oppose the EU rights of workers, the protection of the environment, the food standards, the financial regulations, the social charter etc.
Just say it openly, instead of the vile and pathetic propaganda.
166
@Old Dane
I could agree with you more. Thank you for your post.
13
You nailed it. Well done.
2
good luck to them. What you miss (an basically every columnist in of the NYT with the notable exception of Mr Cohen) is that Europe is an idea (just like the USA still pretends to be) built in the aftermath of two horrible manslaughters. The British never adhered to that idea and constantly endeavoured to neuter EU from that respect. With them gone, it remains to be seen whether something can be salvaged from the messy inclusion of Poland, Hungary etc. If not, EU will fall back on an 11 countries configuration and so be it...
12
I care about how Ireland does. I hope the Troubles don't come back. And only wish peace and prosperity for the entire island of Ireland.
12
@Innisfree I will never undersand why "The Troubles" are still a thing. The Brits have ruled Northern Ireland for centuries, and the Irish haven't been able to eject them or come to terms with it. At a certain point, they have to 'get over it.' There is simply no reason to kill anyone today over an arbitrary line on a small island on the periphery of Eurasia. I wish more people would openly scorn the idea that there is a valid reason.
1
@Innisfree
If it wasn't for European solidarity with the Irish and concern for the Good Friday agreement I guess the English would have been told to stop their whining and leave several years ago. In Europe we know and appreciate peace in Ireland was only achieved with strong US assistance, though the EU participated as well.
The Irish north and south did not want Brexit, Scotland neither, it is mainly an English fantasy of lazy sunny uplands and everlasting imperial supremacy for free.
8
You don’t understand why the Troubles are still a “thing”? The Irish should “get over it”. An “arbitrary” line drawn on a map.
If this is the extent of your knowledge I can appreciate your lack of understanding. You could educate yourself for a start and read a few books. If only the downtrodden and marginalised would “get over it”. Perhaps the US colonists who overthrew British rule over petty things like “no taxation without representation” should have “got over it”.
Your views are the expression of the conqueror and imperialist throughout the ages. Irish independence was achieved after conflict lasting hundreds of years. Perhaps the conquered Irish should have “got over it”? Oppressors everywhere must be thrilled at your display of Stockholm Syndrome.
6
Britain’s deplorables won Brexit.
They voted against their own self interest in today’s global economy.
They’ll get a return to a British empire that no longer exists and the younger, engaged, forward looking Brits will pay the price and have to sort it out in the future.
Trump’s election (and re-election?), Le Pen’s rise.
Putin must be so pleased; Russia isn’t rising, he’s dragging the r.o.w. down.
18
Brexit-voting towns should start campaigning to leave the UK.
Think about how much control you'd be taking back then! How democratic it would be, your own little town as its own country. You'd be free to make your own rules, so imagine how much innovation would occur. And it would be extremely disruptive, and disruption is beneficial, right?
As far as I can tell, disruptive=good and smaller>bigger are the only arguments being presented for how Brexit might "work".
25
I suspect that Britain will somehow muddle through the consequences of leaving the E.U. The fallout is likely to be slow enough to be uncomfortable but just not fast enough to be very exciting. Too much is at stake for even the most crass of politicians to believe that England can exist on its own so compromises will be made.
Some people will grab on to anything that they can claim proves that Brexit is working. But look for concrete and critical trade issues for "proof." What if Airbus elects to take the majority of its activities and leave Britain for the Continent? Same for the financial markets. They will tell you of the true effects of Brexit. Such economic losses will be difficult to make up, no matter how many Poles you send home.
21
"Professor Minford contends that Britain could add 8 percent to its gross domestic product over the next decade if it is able to strike down all trade barriers, and 4 percent if it is able only to eliminate a portion of them. "
Patrick Minford is not a "mainstream economist". Eight percent has no basis in evidence, and is ideologically driven.
31
@Joan
How losing easy access to the largest trading block in the world is beyond me. Most countries in the region are desperate to join. Britain adding 4-8 percent more to GDP is pure fantasy.
18
Mingled is a fantasist and is not taken seriously by any serious economist. His remedies, he admits, would lead to the complete destruction of British agriculture and the loss of most of their manufacturing industry. This is not a recipe for success but for revolution.
4
It's difficult to see how Brexit can be a success in anything other than economic terms. The UK is bitterly divided, foreign nationals have been made to feel unwelcome, hate crimes have risen, our educational, scientific and business communities face an uncertain future and our standing in Europe and the rest of the world is diminished. 20 years after the second world war Germany's economy was growing, but you'd hardly describe the war as a success for Germany. Closer to home Trump still presides over a strong economy. I'll leave the judgement on whether his presidency is successful to your readers!
10
What if Brexit works? What does work actually mean? Because here in the US, right now, our economy is 'working' -- many would even say thriving.
And yet I can't help but think that if we continue to empower the speculators and tax avoiders — and keep borrowing from the future through debts and deficits — that this all must collapse at some point sooner or later.
But 'working' here in the states right now seems to be 'my 401k is up and I get to bash some liberals'. And sadly that seems to be enough.
32
Brexit could make the UK more economically flexible in the long run but will definitely inflict pain for the next 10-15 years. Businesses need certainty to invest and they won’t have that until details of the trade deal with the EU are cleared. New trade deals signed with other countries will not translate into demand right away. So if businesses are not expanding and a good portion of financial flows and high paying jobs of the City move to Europe, you have a shrinking tax base in a country that wants more money for infrastructure, NHS and social care. The voters from the rural and industrial areas will be disappointed by the slow pace of change. The Conservative government will need to increase taxes and I expect they will squeeze it out of the urban middle class which will be their revenge on the Londoners who voted Labour, Lib Dem and Greens. Taking back control is all about ensuring economic and political power is once again concentrated with the public school and Oxbridge educated upper class.
13
Define works. Lots of countries aren't part of the EU and are fine. Are they better in or out is the issue. Hard to measure. They will need a bigger government to handle issues previously outsourced to the EU. They won't really benefit from not complying with EU regulations as every business in the UK sells into the EU. They will be able to keep people from moving there from EU nations.
2
@Irish
I guess in this context, "works" means "is not an unmitigated catastrophe."
5
It will be interesting to follow, especially as those younger Brits who were not involved in this vote will recruit into the political mainstream. Remember that the demographic of those voting to leave was associated mostly with older age, white ethnicity, and low educational attainment.
106
@Thicko Northerner Are you disagreeing with the demographic statistics? Guy, above, is right - of course it's not going to be true for every individual, but it's been clearly shown, and the data is readily available - that Remainers were younger (3/4 of the youngest voters voted Remain), from more highly educated areas, more economically well off, more likely to be working (both full and part time), and less white as a group.
5
@Guy i am not sure you are correct. in central London, I am surrounded by highly educated, middle-age (or younger) people (admittedly, mostly white) who voted to leave. It is not just the old and uneducated who made that decision, (I, myself, a long-time resident but not a citizen, would have voted to remain had I had the right to vote, but I am optimistic the future will be better than remain doomsayers have predicted.)
1
Well if the cap fits, wear it!
"Disruptive change can be beneficial for a country"… in this case it may be true, but for the EU. They have been stagnating in an untenable state of half union for a while, unable to proceed partially due to British nationalism (amongst others) throwing a monkey wrench into any further loss of sovereignty [which is something your local municipality, your city and your state also surrender to be part of a country - or does the old Idea of the European city state appeal to you?]. Without the English, the EU may ironically prosper as they enact vital reforms to move beyond the current quasi union they are stuck at, which was only supposed to be a temporary stepping stone for closer integration. Already the concept of the Pan European Army, long opposed by Britain, is moving ahead with a Franco German homogeny setting the standards.
So the shock of BREXIT has shaken the rest of Europe out of complacency. And now they have to deal with a highly motivated trading competitor on their doorstep. And that is something the BREXITeers don't seem to fathom - it's in the EU's best interest to wreck them (without looking like the villain). So they will play hardball and not allow a new Singapore to humble them, they will attract the best and brightest from the UK, and they will offer incentives to steal British based businesses. All's fair in international trade.
[Dear NYT, a series of articles on the EU and it's future would be more interesting than the back and forth of UK expectations].
40
@casbott
Usually, though, nations are the political embodiment of a people who share the same language.
The EU is a financial (banking) entity made up of countries with distinct languages.
No doubt it aims to level the unique histories and cultures of its countries so that a new artificial non-national construct can result.
One state, one demographic, one currency!
1
@casbott Well, if they embrace freedoms (a hard sell in modern western intersectionalism and self-loathing), they will succeed and then the EU will be worried that Germany and France and others will follow suit.
@Alex Cody
Have you traveled in Europe? If you have you would have noticed that there is no corrosion of the unique cultures of its nations. Perhaps you would be interested to study medieval Europe and find that there was always a Pan-European reality through the church and political conditions. As then Europe's nations today love their indigenous language and the character of their built and natural environment. Vive la difference.
11
United Kingdom. United States. First order of business for these two countries is to drop the word united.
13
@RNS The UK could break apart. Not the US, at least not yet. Perhaps "kingdom" is the word they should abandon as antiquated nonsense of royal people. They are fine entertainment and a nice tourist attraction, but you don't need royalty to enjoy museums and castle tours.
The UK and USA could refocus on equal protection under the law versus special interests; trust in citizens spending their money more wisely than central planners who make a mess of even nice programs like welfare that seems to hate on its people (UBI is far kinder); free markets and free trade. Sadly, authority and central planning is what ignorant youth drive forward to their lowering standard of living.
2
@David I never mentioned breakup and unless the light from the shining city on the hill is blinding you, the USA is not united.
I'm not sure why the NY Times is providing so much coverage of this rather diminutive event. Must be a large contingent of Englanders that are buying the paper. I'm not a fan.
The English empire has been a scourge to the planet. They pillaged the countries they ruled. They left a dysfunctional still struggling Middle East in their wake. They introduced slavery to the U.S., a sin for which we're still paying.
They continue to dress up their royalty in crowns, robes and jewels - and the U.S. media has made their royals our celebrities. NY Times should relegate their reporting on them as they do other small countries. That's where it belongs.
39
@Bill They have a powerful economy and military, and a chance to re-embrace their Hong Kong smarts for free trade and free markets.
Their so-called sins of the past are non-issues. It's about today. Do you hate on Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Russia, China, Japan, Korea, African nations, the Middle East nations, South American nations, etc. for all their awful rulers, ruinous wars, empires, slave trades, etc. from the past?
10
The economic appeal of Great Britain was of being one of the three big boys in the EU together with France and Germany. Now they're just Great Britain. It's in the UK's best interest to keep a close relationship with the EU and keep the hard Brexit skimmers at arms length, people I know in Europe are waiting to see the final arrangement, but I hear the name Amsterdam as a possible substitute for London as a travel hub, business opportunities etc.
12
Mark my words: in two years the UK will be just like Canada, with no independent trade or regulatory policy, completely dependent on whatever crumbs it’s larger neighbour is willing to toss it.
13
@Graham Because Canada is a horrible nation to be avoided at all costs? They seem rather happy to me, with no need to be ruled by other nations.
8
You don't have to look too hard at the photos to spot that the people in the UK celebrating Brexit come from the same demographic as the people in the US who attend Trump rallies - lower levels of education, older than the average population, and predominantly from rural areas.
68
@Matt Rowe
I only got one of the three from the photos.
1
@Dan That's probably because you haven't been trained as British people have, to be able to recognize social class on sight. It's the same in France, where I lived. Americans haven't developed this faculty as keenly.
2
The very title of this article is absurd.
All the wisdom of The Greatest Generation - and they were, in America, the greatest since the Revolution make and fighting the Axis alone was no cakewalk for Britain make no mistake - is lost in a sea of entitled whinging from people with no idea of their own privilege. These ingrates are literally inheriting the remains of the world’s greatest Empire or in America, the richest country in the world.
For which their governments appear to show little willingness to stop whinging and look for real solutions, rather than merely assert their right to whinge more loudly as their freedoms so to do are eroded by themselves to nothing.
“We must all hang together, or most assuredly, we shall all hang separately” - Benjamin Franklin.
The irony in this situation? I first heard that quote at three years, directly from a then Member of the (then hereditary) House of Lords of The Parliament of the United Kingdom.
10
Britain has never understood what the EU is about and the EU will be a much better place after Britain has left.
45
@Chris The EU is antiquated and has failed Europe which seeks real progress. We will see the EU dissolve in the coming decade
6
@Nana - Seems like people imagine EU as some great power of itself. It's nothing more than a big ongoing conference for the members with staff that write the decisions down. EU decides nothing, the members in it's different branches do. Sadly it's no more drama than that. I've been there as a bureaucrat a couple of times. Haven't seen any totalitarian dudes in the corridors yet.
22
@Nana
Couldn't disagree more.
The UK is far more likely to dissolve now that independence for Scotland and a united Ireland are no longer a remote possibility.
24
You rest your entire case on the UK's ability to trade freely with Europe. So I assume that your celebration flows solely from the new lack of regulation? In my view, that means the UK will decline into a more polluted envionment with even less sustainable agriculture and industry. The UK is already one of the least appealing western countries. France, Germany, Spain, Norway, Sweden et al are far better manged.
30
The country with the worst productivity in the industrial world will now be deprived of the workers who helped it to stay at a viable level. This will create a huge problem and it will be interesting to see how Johnson et al will try to solve it. An underclass of Indian, Malaysian and other imported workers perhaps? One way of going back to empire days?
17
Sure it might work. The tooth fairy might also live on a moon made of green cheese and fly to a flat earth. Toxic nostalgia.
47
What metrics are being used to measure success? Lifting up the lower and middle classes, or turning away immigrants?
15
@Chris
The latter, plus a healthy helping of dependence on an overbearing US.
3
Growth over the last 5 quarters:
Germany 0.5% GDP
UK 1.5% GDP
And the UK is highly meritocratic.
We don't have an inherited presidential system as seems to be the case in the USA.
As for influencing EU rules-the EU rulers are unelected apparatchiks. As a UK resident I don't remember casting a vote for anybody in the EU commission which effectively runs the EU.
The EU parliament is a joke. Its role is to rubber stamp what the Commission decides.
The new President of the EU is a German politician who the Germans were delighted to get rid of.
In the "election" for President, she was proposed by the Commission in a field of one, and then she only narrowly got approved by the EU parliament-not that it would have made any difference.
When countries like Ireland get the wrong result in a referendum, for example over the Maastricht treaty, they are told to run them again.
4
@Soracte
"And the UK is highly meritocratic.
We don't have an inherited presidential system as seems to be the case in the USA."
You have GOT to be kidding. Most of the senior Tory politicians are in office as a direct result of the elite public school (like Eton in the British sense) to Oxbridge to political office pipeline. Politics is one of the least meritocratic aspects of the UK.
24
You sound like the British equivalent of an American Trump supporter. Fun with statistics: German GDP in 2019 was $4.2 trillion, Britains was $2.7 trillion. Given Brexit, expect British GDP to decline for the foreseeable future. As for the current importance of Britain in the world economy, one of the fifty American states alone, California, has a larger economy than Britain.
22
@Soracte All of Britain's neighbors have a higher GDP per capita: Ireland, Belgium Netherlands, France and of course Germany.
Ireland couldn't be happier with the EU. Their GDP per capita rivals Norway thanks to a thriving service economy and they know the EU has their back on the Irish border Brexit issue.
20
There will be tears within 2 years. The Brits think that they're "Great", but they're not, they just have a very narrow view of what they are and what they can achieve, and, alas, all this becoming and achieving is based on a model that died with Queeen Victoria. WW1 bankrupted the Empire; WW2 finished off any chance the Brits had to be a "Leading Power", a fact confirmed when Dulles forced the Brits and French to retreat from Suez in 1955. Now, we're about equal with Spain, which makes sense for once they. too, were a World Power. I write this as an Englishman living in New Mexico. I've been here since 1976 . I don't recognize London now when I visit; It's a different world. I fear that it has now commenced its journey down the hole and into the world of the third rate.
16
I think both will do great.
1
Word to the wise - be careful about whatever our snake-oil salesman-in-chief tries to peddle to you about your medical/health care 'markets.'
I've basically accepted aging and dying will bankrupt me. Just trying to save you some grief.
15
@itsmildeyes You just hit on one of the privileges of being European and part of the EU, get old and die with dignity. It is already extremely hard for a big percentage of Americans, and I fear that Boris and company will eventually do the same in the UK.
5
Britain has fought to prevent invasion from European countries for centuries. Even long before the failed Spanish Armada, to Napoleon wisely deciding that an invasion was not possible, (so invaded the middle east instead), to Germany's intent in WWII, perhaps Brexit is felt culturally as another example of a widely felt survival instinct. So...endless treaties and alliances to follow, for a long time.
1
Would it be churlish of me to point out that Britains ability to ward off European invasion ended more than a century ago? In both WWI and WWII Britain would have lost if not for the aid of its long lost colony, America. Brexit is not a survival instinct, so much as it is an elderly man hitting his carer with his cane, declaring he can walk by himself, and proceeding to fall on his face.
12
Brexit is now a fact and the future is unclear.
What is clear to outsiders is that while the EU does offer Europe a chance to benefit from a continental sized political entity, it’s unable to function as one without some over arching authority that can assure an acceptable coherent system that offers equity and prosperity and security for all. It can’t do that, now.
The U.K. was a country with a world wide empire which was moribund one hundred years, ago. The Great War began with the greatest European empires complacently brandishing their martial power and ended with all of the shattered and unable to remain imperial powers. By mid-century, the U.K. was a county in Europe without a lot of economic power, without a get navy that dominated the oceans and without colonies to feed it’s productive industries. While the U.S. rapidly expanded and achieved great prosperity for most Americans, he citizens in the U.K. barely got by with shortages and a weak economy.
Brexit seems to have been a great venting of frustration about not being the greatest country on Earth and being tied to an EU which was not offering something as good. But it was not a plan for achieving anything in a manner likely to work.
7
This debate was never one about logic, or growth rates, a large proportion of people were missing out because the status quo wasn’t working for them.
I voted remain, primarily because I was happy with the status quo, but since the vote was lost I can’t see the point in harping on, we just need to move on.
It should be a lesson though for all western democracies, large chunks of people are feeling left behind and are voting for individuals or causes which disrupt the status quo!
12
Yes, Germany in the twenties voted to disrupt the status quo. How did that turn out again?
2
Britain became a financial hub because of the close ties it was able to forge with the Continent. Financial services are the hardest goods to get free trade for - but Britain had it with the EU. They will not get the same from the US, because we have our own financial hubs that compete directly with London.
Similarly, auto and aerospace manufacture are two industries the US protects vigorously. This goes double for agriculture; California alone produces more food than almost any country in the world. What crack is the UK hoping to fill here? They keep talking about artificial intelligence and innovation. Guess again. The United States might entertain free trade with the UK right now, because it pleases our white conservatives to imagine an alliance with other white conservatives, but our conservatives like money more than people, even people who look and act just like them.
Britain's best hope for surviving Brexit is, ironically, Europe. Britain should hope that Europe puts the kids' gloves on for them.
103
@Roarke : you’ve hit the nail on the head with these comments. Thousands of banking and financial jobs (and hundreds of billions of pounds) have seeped out of the UK over the past two years and into Dublin, Paris, Amsterdam. The entire financial trading system is about to relocate and it’s anyone guess what London will look like once all the jobs, money and power are gone.
4
But u forget, trade deals are made on power of the relationship so the US will get the upper hand in opening up the UKs market which a lot of brits do not want. And with the EU still the number one export market for the UK, like it or not, the UK will have to abide by EU rules and regulations on food and product safety.
It was wrong to say the brits were rule takers when they were in the EU, as they had a seat at the table and could influence the rules, outside the EU and if they want to continue to trade with the EU, then the brits have to be rule takers without a seat on the table.
Finally, unlike the US which has a huge economy and is an economy geared towards consumption, the UK needs to export as it does not have a large enough economy to do so.
So go figure, it’s most likely the slow decline of a nation
22
Great countries are sometimes shackled to their past, even after they are less than great. UK was never completely in the EU. Class system is engrained in its psyche. They are out of it EU is a mere formality. The Sun also sets. Very slowly. There is only so much for refusing to let the Sun set. There is nothing preventing UK becoming another Singapore -- there is something to aspire for -- not an empire but proudly sovereign still!
3
Brexit "working," whatever that means, will result in a variety of winners and losers. The question may be, are the benefits to the so-called winners worth the pain, the real pain, inflicted upon the losers? Not only that, but will the gains go to those who suffered under the EU and the losses go to those who prospered under the EU? Somehow, I doubt it. Capitalism just doesn't work that way. Never has, likely never will. More spoils will go to the already spoiled. Anything else, national pride and the like, is mere window dressing.
45
"Britain, the critics say, will continue to be a rule taker. It just will no longer have a seat at the table where those rules are drafted." For me, that nicely sums up British idiocy over Brexit. You cannot become stronger if you don't have a seat at the table, you only end up at the mercy of those at the table!
65
@S
The only people that have “seats” at the E.U. table are Germany and, to a lesser extent, France.
4
@S The EU rule makers are individual nations acting in their own interest. There is widespread distrust, rule abuse and jealousy. It isn't working very well.
After the last EU elections the national leaders basically ignored the results. They appointed a French politician to lead the central bank and a German career servant as President of Europe. Nobody is acting in the interest of the union.
In this climate of distrust, it's quite possible the EU won't work as a practical matter. It's not crazy for the UK to want out.
3
@Maureen 27 members? and they all have a say, even the struggling ones, like Greece. The UK who will depend on heavy trading with the EU, is now standing outside, looking in.
14
One can imagine Mr. Trump, after a loss in 2020, stewing in Florida, decrying all the rules made in far off Washington by the deep sate bureaucrats. What does Putin and the Fox News crowd whisper in his ear then? "If Brexit worked, then..."
2
@Mr. Jones
In a moment of avarice, I think to myself “...and he can take the rest of the Deep South with him.”
9
The UK's future "place in the world is clear"--less.
3
Britain leaving Europe is like the US leaving North America. Close the Chunnel, restrict immigration, enjoy wine from Wales and bananas from nowhere.
The old empire, on which the sun never set, will now be limited to goods and ideas from a small isle stuck in one time zone. Talk about a recession!
Being insular, ecologically and politically, reduces ability to adapt or to engage, a fast track to irrelevance and extinction.
Ask Darwin or Dodgson - this is the path of the dodo.
47
@Woodrat
Spot on.
BTW, nobody in Europe - Brits especially - ever talks about 'the Chunnel'. A man in a London street wouldn't know to what you were referring. The term seems uniquely American or a 1970s anachronism from the earliest planning stages.
The construct is known as the 'Channel Tunnel' or, more popularly, after the trains, and train company that operates, them as 'the Eurostar' (although there are now multiple direct routes to cities in France, Belguim and the Netherlands). As in 'we took the Eurostar to Amsterdam...'
The engineers, developers and other specialits who maintain the rail link often use the abbreviation 'CTRL'.
10
@Woodrat It is easy to concentrate on what will Happen (?) to the UK after BREXIT...Maybe a bit of thouight about what will happen in the EU would be in order..
BREXIT has caused..and will continue to cause ...a monumental rethink of the whole EU and Eurozone mold...as it has within Britain....
I would surmise that both Briain and Europe will emerge much stronger ...Both had grown flabby...growing rich whilst losing their IDENTITY...
Now ..both will have to change ..getting back to their roots...concetrating on doing what is best for their citizens..not what is best for some Globalist ideal....
we will see, I am sure , a new mantra ..MEGA ( Make Europe Great Again ) as a counterweight to MAGA...
Maybe America will lose out of the whole MAGA phenomenon ...
3
@nolongeradoc
Adequate public transport. How quaint.
2
Here is the danger, in the prophetic words of a government adviser in 1949. “We persist in regarding ourselves as a great power, capable of everything and only temporarily handicapped by economic difficulties. We are not a great power and never will be again. We are a great nation, but if we continue to behave like a great power we shall soon cease to be a great nation.”
79
@D Na I disagree. Continue the big ego. Punch well above your weight. Like Napoleon, be small, think big.
@Chip Napoleon was average height for men of his time period, and he died in exile (by the British!) after the collapse of his empire.
1
The rather pollyanna-ish views offered here depend on a number of things:
1. The Farage fascists will not take over when the economy tanks.
2. Trade with the US will make up for lost trade with the E.U.
3. Or that the E.U. will trade with the U.K. without social, labor and environmental standards (those pesky rules of which Europe is quite fond).
4. The E.U., having been burned by the U.K., will be willing to do anything at all on a basis of community/trust. ( I wonder if the E.U. will enter into any agreements with the U.K. that don’t include a large sum placed in escrow against the U.K. bailing yet again...).
5. Scotland will not decide to do a lot Scexit and take their North Sea oil fields with them.
6. The Unionists in Ulster will not start another war that will require a sizable garrison of British troops in Ireland.
I think the author hopes for far too much. I don’t particularly care what happens to the Brits, as they have made the bed upon which they will now lie. But an understanding of history compels me to care about Farage and Company gaining power, and about a war spilling into Ireland.
8
“Disruptive change can be beneficial for a country,”
Except when the change comes from a base of corrupted politicians allowing propaganda to flow in from corrupted foreign influence. Russia did it in the UK and they did it here.
61
Revenue will get tight as the economic consequences of Brexit take hold.
Wonder how long it will be before Johnson and friends start taking a good look at the NHS and begin to dream of what they could do if they could creatively divert some of that funding given the “emergency” they have created?
5
@Chickpea The NHS is a sacred cow in the UK.
Nearly £2 billion pounds has been committed over and above current spending over the next 5 years.
How is your National Health Service?
4
Politically my only real question is which leaves Britain first, Scotland or Northern Ireland? I think I'd put my money on the Scots at present.
31
Wales and England can be renamed Engales.
6
The placard in the first picture is telling: “Remoaners are traitors”. I don’t think we can divorce the legacy of Brexit from the divisive and demagogic politics of the right that engendered it. The article also fails to mention the likely exit of Scotland from the U.K., which would be a profound repercussion. Our merry Brexiteers will need to change their flags.
19
"Britain is going to have to come to terms with being a small country.”
May I suggest a slight change that better reflects the current political reality in the UK: "England is going to have to come to terms with being a small country.”
The Scots alone account for much of Britain's historical success and world standing. The Brexiteers have willfully and insultingly thrown it all back in the Scots' faces and treated them like an appendage rather than a partner. Northern Ireland may finally decide that it will be better off reunited with the Irish Republic, a thriving EU member, and even Welsh nationalism has been rekindled.
I can see a day when there's a customs border between England and Scotland, after Scotland separates and rejoins the EU. Many EU companies exporting goods to England will set up in Scotland, instead of shipping by sea and dealing with ports. Scotland will claim a significant portion of the former UK's fishing grounds, and it will be able to keep all of its oil and gas revenues.
The loathed Boris Johnson and his Brexiteer Conservative Party have no vision for the future of a united kingdom, and have made themselves the prime reason the former resistance to independence is melting in Scotland. Indeed, Brexit is far from over.
100
@Nick Wright Scotland, the Brave!
4
@Nick Wright
'Scots alone account for much of Britain's historical success and world standing'. Perhaps, but what of today?
I believe there was a poll before the referendum in Scotland that if the English were allowed to vote in it the vote to leave would have carried the day 2 to 1. There might be more English that want an independent Scotland then Scots.
Oh and the 'loathed Boris Johnson and his Brexiteer Conservative Party' certainly did quite well in the recent elections. Much better then Trudeau and his party did in Canada.
1
Brexit might work, and that’s the irony. It won’t be because of sage leadership at the helm who engineered this decision by creating divisive rancour and uncertainty after long procrastination about what it is truly best for Britain and the British. It’ll be because erudite and pragmatic wheels in the unelected civil service will turn to make it work, leaving the Johnson and the Leavers looking like statesmen instead of parasites.
The reason why it will probably fail, plunging my birth country into dystopia, is because of the racism and toxic prejudices that have been unleashed that the politicians will exploit and which the civil service will never be able to contain. Worker’s rights and civil liberties will be denuded as a direct mandate to Brexit which will not stand unopposed by the legion of Remainers. When Thatcher introduced the Poll Tax, cars were burned, property destroyed, and people were hurt.
Britain now desperately needs trade partners and will likely be forced to endure weaknesses to be exploited by stronger forces such as the US. The NHS is in dire peril, no matter how it was touted as the focus of the Leavers cause.
Now that Brexit has occurred, Trump’s acquittal almost assured, a new neo-fascist axis looms across the Atlantic, but, hopefully, one that lasts only ten months. Trump has similar designs as Johnson and they both emulate Putin. Can it be left to Americans have the wherewithal to save the world in 2020?
152
If the Democratic President in 2020 (assuming a honest election…) introduces Medicare for all in the US, the American health insurance industry might set it's sights on the NHS as a safe haven [it could even be a quid pro quo with the administration "let us rape Britian and we won't be as nasty to you". Besides the American pharmaceutical companie's lobbyists are always trying to slip language into free trade deals to allow them to sue the Australian Pharmaceutical Benifts Scheme (PBS), but the Ozzie's are wise to that]. The UK will be so desperate for a US trade deal they won't have much bargaining power, and the Tories don't like the NHS anyway (which will be in trouble with the mass exodus of EU medical personnel). Of course it could be worse and Trump wins a rigged election in which he'll show no quarter to the UK as he thinks of trade as a 'zero sum gain' and will rant and rave and start a trade war with Britain unless they roll over.
8
@Marcus Brant In a word, no. The end of the American Century is here. Look to Canada and no other to guide you. Australia is lost to climate change, most other places to dysfunction and dictatorship. Oh, Canada, please lead us all.
17
@Marcus Brant Well, the UK has about 30 times the number of civil servants than the EU and they were not elected either.
1
“What if’ will take a long time to measure and then there’s defining the metrics by which its success is judged.
1
The election in December gave Mr. Johnson a mandate not only complete Brexit but power ahead on the new economy. It is a fascinating opportunity.
A trade deal with the US would be a nice start.
7
Please name products made in Britain that any smart consumer would consider good value and quality. In my experience the UK trades on pretension and images, rather than reality. Financial and insurance brokerage are their strengths, but I would say, based on some experience, that you risk much if you put your financial well-being in the London market. Good luck to Boris. But, being a posh Brit, he will come out well taken care of. He's probably already shopping for a place in the south of France or Malaga.
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@Lane Wharton
Men's clothing.
Bentley automobiles.
Certain scholarly books.
8
@Lane Wharton
Jeremy Corbyn should be the one run out of the country for Labour's poor performance. What a mess.
5
@Lane Wharton 1, TV comedy. The Brits are so consistently good at it. 2. Popular music: just astonishing that so much life-affirming music has come out of such a relatively tiny country ...
5
The Thatcher revolution did definitely not work. It increased economic inequality to the point of making it obscene, it dismantled essential parts of the welfare state, it embedded structural underfunding in health and education politics. People have died from starvation in Thatcher's Britain. More people have died from curable conditions. We all remember those who died because of a fire in a building built and maintained according to market principles rather than civic ones.
If Brexit brings, as has been predicted, Thatcherism on steroids it will be even worse. There is already talk of getting rid of the BBC and leave public debate to the tender mercies of Rupert Murdoch and his ilk. Look at what this policy has done for democracy in the USA and Australia.
The best thing to happen as a consequence of Brexit would be for Ireland and Scotland to leave the UK. If the English don't want to take rules from Brussels, why on earth would the Irish and the Scottish want to take rules from Westminster?
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@Jose Ferreira
Exactly. What if Brexit works ? It works just fine for Mother Russia.
17
@True Believer
But not for most Russian people.
3
The UK's trade negotiations with the EU, the US and other countries should be interesting. The US has not gained as much as it hoped for in its trade negotiations with China, the NAFTA countries and others even though it is an economic superpower.
1
Britain may see a boost, of course that's possible. For one thing, its companies will not have to abide by regulations set by the EU. In a sense, the UK has joined the race to the bottom. Also keep in mind that the UK is already a rich country. The indicators people tend to focus on - GDP, particularly - will probably say things are great. Then you should look more deeply at the quality of life - inequality, the number of people in poverty, etc. I suspect that examination will reveal things are not so good.
27
@Joe
While the rules of the EU will not inform the UK’s trade position with non EU partners, the UK will most certainly have to abide the EU’s rules in order to trade with the EU. I doubt that Europe will make exceptions to their labor and sustainability rules for the increasingly insignificant island across the channel.
14
I assume from all the predictions there are huge traffic logjams at the UK - France border and at UK ports. But I have not seen any YouTube videos showing them.
There is a recent video for the Port of Dover but that video show virtually no traffic.
How is the traffic situation?
1
@Mark W. Miller EU laws are still in effect until 12/31/20 11pm GMT
i.e. nothing really changed besides UK loosing voice in EU institutions
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@Mark W. Miller
That's because, despite the formal withdrawal date being Jan 31, no changes or new regulations--assuming they can be figured out--will go into effect over the 11 month transition period.
To the overall article: What if pigs fly? As the saying goes.
11
There is still a one year transition period
10
Why is it that when the Right wins there are examinations & protests & voices of doom. Your article on Boris Johnson's win, was within the same venue. Yet when the Left wins as with Trudeau in Canada in '15 full of hope & promise & his election this year ignored, with no examination of why he now has a minority government with only 33% of the popular. Brexit is going to work because Mr Johnson is actually working on it.
12
@Hilda
I think it is because the reactionary forces that run the UK and the US are looking back to some glorious past - Empire in the UK; people who know their place in the US. Rather than being something to celebrate, it is something to keep a wary eye on. That Canada now may be following the US, the UK, Brazil, and Australia into the catastrophically unsustainable sewer of what passes these days for conservatism is likewise something to keep a wary eye on.
9
@Dan The right is reactionary because of history. Well, the left is revolutionary because of history & why shouldn't they be kept an eye on? After all, their revolutions include Russia & China, bigger than, with larger populations that have historically been butchered & terrorized & yet on par with power with the United States.
2
I’ve been dead set against Brexit admittedly, but I accept I could be wrong on its consequences. But then I think, what were the ideas behind Brexit, what were the truths and the lies, what were the emotions it engendered, who were its champions? Who were the ‘high minds’ on the Brexit side? And then I see it again as a sad debacle - politically, socially, strategically.
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@rowbat
Rich people who were about to have new asset reporting requirements enforced were the winners.
43
@rowbat
The simple idea, lost in froth, was the reclaiming of a national identity and the reclaiming of their own governance. No longer required to follow the bureaucrats in Brussels, where most members have little connection to the people of United Kingdom, the people of the United Kingdom will no have a single government that will be responsible and one that can be held accountable.
When was the last time an unelected technocrat from the EU was removed from office? They were unaccountable as long as they had the backing of the Germans and the French. Do you really want your government to be dictated to by the whims and demands of a foreign entity? That's why Brexit passed and why more people now, than then support it.
5
@rowbat You've had 3 years to sort out your questions.
The best way for Brexit to be a success is for Europe to put its house in order now that the Brits are no longer there to sabotage things from the inside.
I don't care about Britain anymore. I want to see Europe move forward.
229
@David - Well David, Russia and their dictatorial allies -- one of which is the United States -- convinced a lot of voters that authoritarianism is in their best interests. I'm pessimistic about saving democracy, and believe it's too late to save it. I have no hopes for any country, none.
19
The UK is certainly not responsible for the EU's failings. The EU's biggest problem is the Euro - since its creation the Eurozone has been the slowest-growing region in the world, and many of its members are stuck with high debt and stagnating living standards, even as we approach the end of the economic cycle. The next recession will be interesting, to say the least.
9
@Edmund Langdown The EU would have to throw Germany out to allow higher growth in the stagnant countries. Even then the stagnant countries would have to get their rears in gear, which is even less likely than the EU shedding anti-inflation Germany.
3
It is hard to see how Brexit will provide any benefits to Great Britain. Indeed, with most of Scotland wanting to leave Great Britain, there is a good chance that Great Britain will become Little Britain, comprised basically of England and Wales. That will lead to even less power internationally than GB has right now, which is not a lot.
The end of WWII saw the power of GB diminish significantly. Brexit will almost certainly decrease that power much more. I fear that many who voted for Brexit were hoping to bring back the glory days of the Victorian Era. But what they have brought about is merely a greater distance from those glory days.
147
@Tom Krebsbach GB has the fifth largest economy in the world. They will be fine.
7
@Emily S , no, Britain *was* the 5th largest economy - now it's California.
25
It's not "most" of Scotland. Polls have it at 50/50 and the majority of Scots don't want another referendum for the time-being.
5