Its best to let Britain go. the EU will be better off in the long run without them. Britain was so disruptive and thinking they were “Exceptional” that it is better now than later. Britain was used as a wrench in the cog by America to weaken EU as a competitor. Britain will find out they have nothing to sell America except financial products and America does not need more financial products. Soon Britain will find out how loyal America is and that they are really just a small country dreaming of the days of Lord Nelson.
329
@Darryl Leopold
The EU 27 are the UK's biggest trading partner but the
the USA is the UK's biggest single country trading partner beating Germany into second place by ~ $18Bn
3
@Darryl Leopold
Are you an American? Maybe in name only. The USA has been the best supporter to Europe for 100 years we intervened in two world wars, we rebuilt Europe after the second world war, and allowed them to develop their much vaunted welfare state. I am sick and tired of Americans throwing the USA under the bus and lauding Europe. If it wasnt for the USA Europe would be ruled by fascism or communism.
15
@Darryl Leopold Britain IS exceptional and the EU is a ramshackle failure. Can’t wait to celebrate on Brexit Day.
12
For years Germany has carried the EU due to its successful exports to the US and China. Now with the US turning isolationist and Trump tariffs slowing world trade it is the end of an era. Germany is being pushed into the arms of Russia. US and UK may get their wish to sink the EU....by accident.
16
Time will tell. Maybe it will prove an economic disaster for Britain If there is a winner it is Putin and Russia. Putin's goals include a weaker EU and NATO. His best ally in achieving these goals has been Donald Trump. Trump has been the gift that keeps on giving. Putin will do all he can to make sure that Trump is reelected. Brace yourself for a torrent of misinformation from Putin and perhaps others nations. Trump likely to amplify the misinformation and lies if he believes it will help him.
7
This may turn out to be like France's relationship to NATO. Officially decoupled but still tied in so many ways.
1
Brexit had to be one of the most confounding, pointless and clearest exercises in futility. I really do not understand what Great Britain hopes to gain by this?! I mean, I understand the mechanics, sentiments and issues behind this whole rather pathetic episode, in broad strokes at least.
Yet at a time when the world is facing an array of challenges and threats (pick your choice), nations have to literally pull closer, not further appart, cooperate and combine their resources to be able to face what is to come. The time for going at it alone has passed, no matter how much some want to turn back the clock and regress to some idealized time when life was supposedly better (and they were in charge).
No question, the UK leaving, is not a positive for the EU, but at the end of the day it will hopefully adapt and move on (along much needed reforms). I think that in the long run (and perhaps even short term), it will be Great Britain that stands to loose more.
Someone should remind the UK that the era of Empire and Rule Britannia has expired. Ironically, the wave of nationalism and populism that swept the country, has emboldened Scotland, Northern Ireland and even Wales to become more assertive and seek their own independence from England.
"Keep calm and carry on" might in the end turn out to be a hollow proposition for the United Kingdom.
4
I think the Author over estimates Britain's diminishing importance on the world scene. His concept of a rich partner applies to London and a few outliers. without the Eu farming is dead, manufacturing is a joke and the ruling class is so inward looking it is cross-eyed. Time is now going to be spent negotiating a trade deal with the EU which will never be as good as the one they had, the EU holds all the cards.
English speaking international companies will move to Dublin, the best and the brightest have already left. Huge area of the country are populated by a fourth generation of unemployed and under-educated. Scotland will leave and in Northern Ireland, the growing population under forty will shake off the shackles of sectarian myopia and join their sisters and brothers to the south.
The aim of the ruling party is London is an offshore tax havens serving the kleptocrats of the world, inhabited by shady banks offering dubious investment instrument, and money laundering bucket shops.
4
Well, there is an upside to the UK withdrawal, and that is its position as US lackey, heavily lobbying the EU to adopt positions inimical to its own interests, but rather to sign on to the latest moronic initiatives coming from the US government. Frankly, a far more independent stance vis-à-vis American policy is a big plus, IMHO.
2
"Quitaly" is much better than "Italexit."
5
Uh, I beg to disagree. I believe Britain is the one who will be the biggest loser; Brexit was a delusion from the start.
Calling out winners and losers at this point is foolish.
2
I do not know what adverse effects will haunt the EU for its loss of England as a member. I do know that the England will suffer far greater adverse effects. A lose-lose outcome.
5
The single biggest disadvantage to the membership of the European Union is fundamentally political and therefore also economical. It is the erosion of the ability of a country to decide its own laws and to repeal its legislation and to sack its lawmakers. That is what democracy is all about. If someone is going to promulgate a law that affects my life I want to know who he or she is, who put them there, and how I as a voter can remove them. The problem with the European Union is it takes that right away from the British people. We have to minimize that loss of democratic accountability whilst retaining as much as we can our freedom to trade, to be friends and to develop European relations in other ways. - Boris Johnson 2014
4
@Eric
Where did Boris Johnson publish that, out of interest?
1
Ah yes. Nationalism. The pernicious brand that serves to separate people, promulgate wars and conflicts, engender suspicion and bigotry. The EU has brought the peoples of Europe together in ways that seemed historically impossible. There are local governmental institutions in place that serve to promote the interests you cherish. On a national level they are archaic.
3
The UK is the home of modern democracy, and its constitution, legal system and political philosophers gave birth to the USA via the Founding Fathers. So when the British people, particularly working people who suffered under an EU regime, restored their democracy and sovereignty and reclaimed control over their lands and waters, that is something to be celebrated, not mourned.
The EU by necessity is an undemocratic institution that makes decisions for hundreds of millions of people without their direct participation in those decisions. So when democracy is under attack around the world Brexit is a shining example of how democracy can be reclaimed.
3
I think the EU will be fine. It will be adding members. The UK on the other hand will find it difficult to appease the EU with their strick trade regulations. Some companies may leave for the continent to stay within the trading bloc. Scotland may leave the UK. Given the current state of affairs the article should have been written about the UK's hard road ahead.
3
Brexit was backed by a few folks that wanted more freedom to line their pockets with the EU out of U.K. decision making. That’s about all the “benefit” that will take place in the U.K. Monaco and Switzerland will have some new London competition for tax dodgers and money launderers.
4
That marks the coming end of UK then the total decline of England...
Scotland will leave first to join the EU, then Ulster to form a united Ireland and finally Wales...
London always played a specific game.. I am in the EU but not tally in... I love you, neither I... in some way.
Boris Johnson plays kind of a poker game in which he is having far from a full hand. He dreams about an ideal deal with Donald Trump and the US but firstly he has not much to sell (mostly as Trump will always put America first and give priority to its own products) and secondly Trump is everything but reliable so you never can trust what he says...
Probable internal consequences are many...
Airbus might leave to keep all theroduction in the EU
Several car makers could leave
Financial institutions might leave
Life's cost will probably increase
Cost of production will necessarily increase
As a result of it, growth should slow down...
By the opposite, I think it is a good thing for the EU with 27 members rowing more in the same direction... No integration of Turkey and hopefully Ukraine's one in the future.
1
What a great forum with people all around the world discussing the issue politely.
Its really interesting to read American, European, Australian etc comments to try and gauge how this story has been met in their countries.
My take as a Londoner is this...
I voted remain for what it is worth but I was close to voting leave.
There are clear benefits and negatives for the UK being in the EU, anyone who argues in absolutes one way or the other is misguided or brainwashed.
I voted remain to keep up the status quo but now we are leaving I see it as a (nerve-wracking) opportunity.
The EU have pledged a FTA (issues with level playing field to be addressed admittedly) so if that is agreed the UK could have a best of both worlds.
Trade agreements with the rest of the world AND the EU. How is that doom and gloom?
On Immigration Boris has announced his strategy of making it easier for skilled workers and students to come to the UK.
Our Universities are some of the best in the world and the London Fintech hub is huge so there will always be talented people looking to come over.
No British person I know longs for any restoration of our place as a colonial giant, that was my only frustration in reading these comments. We recognise we are a small but at the same time not insignificant cog in the big wide world.
Also we love Europe just not necessarily every aspect of the European Union!
We will be fine, Europe will be fine, the US will be fine.
7
Let’s face it: Since the era of Margaret Thatcher the British didn’t want to be a member of the EU. All they wanted to be in was the common market but the EU also means free movement of people. It was about time for them to realize that they wanted to be a member of a club that doesn’t exist.
5
In five years time the Brits will be eating chlorinated chicken and the NHS will be run by the likes of Blue Cross & Aetna.
If the EU was clever they would squeeze whatever they could out of the UK before the US does.
1
In all fairness to the other countries in the U.K., and especially the younger people who see the world in apparently broader terms than their isolationist elders, I would think that a referendum in both Scotland and Ireland, giving them the choice to remain in the U.K. or break off and rejoin the E.U., would be in order.
3
Interesting to see the scarves "United in diversity" as if that was the goal.of the EU. Sorry to break it to them, the goal of the EU was always about money, not people.
3
Not sure about that comparison in the title:
Texas: 695,621 km²
Population: 28,995,881
GSP 1.8 Trillion USD
U.K.: 242,495 km²
Population: 67,545,757
GDP: 2,744 trillion USD
And last time I checked, Texas wasn't in the UN or a Security Council Member.
3
I am disappointed that the UK left the EU, but the issue is so complex that it is difficult to predict the economic and political consequences. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
As always there will be winner as well as losers. I'm just glad that no one wants to fight a war over this succession.
6
In democracies, a resounding majority equals a decision, however ill-founded and misbegotten. But it does not absolve those responsible, and for my money, Jeremy Corbyn is the one most responsible for leading the opposition -- and the Remain faction -- to such a resounding defeat. Get him out, and replace him with a centrist!
2
After centuries of fighting, the EU was created as a peaceful project of cooperation; there would be a common good guarded by rules so there is fair play but also great benefits like the single market, trade without tariffs, freedom to move , live an work in the member countries and more power as a block to negotiate trade agreements with third countries and more.
50 years of cooperation thrown out the window by a bunch of Old Etonian conmen.
The UK has always been confused about Europe and exceptioned itself consistently, not sufficiently committed to the European project, and its innumerable tantrums and exception show that it was in only for the benefits, but not for the obligations. The EU is the sum of its members, one of which was the UK. The UK therefore took part in all the decisions; things weren’t done that hadn’t been agreed to. The UK was not a real team player.
Having advanced from the position of a sick man of Europe to the economic premier league thanks in large measure to EU membership UK has now decided to spit in the face of its European “friends and neighbours” and begin the relegation process.
Delusions of grandeur, arrogance and sense of superiority are particularly prevalent amongst the English, maybe that’s the reason a developed nation decided to impose sanctions on itself, willingly voted to restrict it's own rights and freedoms and a worse trading situation with its neighbors.
Brexit, everyone gets what nobody wants.
Perfidious Albion, Good Riddance!
8
Brexit is what happens when an inferiority complex masquerades as a superiority complex,
It’s all anger, bitterness and hatred of a project that makes 27 nations coopererate, unlike in the UK where Westminster rules by dictate over its “subjects”.
Now that England voted to supposedly slip the shackles of the EU, isn't it time to allow the Scottish and Irish people a vote on slipping the shackles of the so called equal union with England?
Nationalism and xenophobia were major drivers of the Brexit vote. It will therefore be very disappointing for the Brexiteers to realise that the immigrants are as numerous as before. The only discernible difference will be that the new immigrants will be various shades of brown. It will lower EU immigration, immigration from elsewhere will not only still happen but increase, but with less rights for the people coming in. Prepare yourself for the presence of an easily exploitable group of workers.
Brexit explicitly removes rights and freedoms.
Except, perhaps, the freedom to exploit workers and soil the environment - something that will benefit very few Britons.
So on the stroke of 11.00pm on the 31st (midnight Brussels time,of course) the be-leavers will leap off their couches having been set free of the chains of the EU and start negotiating these wonderful trade deals that the world is just waiting to deliver "oven ready" into their arms.
A good day for Europe and many would say that England deserves to suffer for its arrogance and hubris
7
I lived in Europe during the EU planning stage and ran manufacturing operations in the UK, Belgium and Germany. As an American my comments were always taken as negative no matter how rational they might have been and the UK always had a grudging attitude about the whole process. I remember Mrs. Thatcher referring to the "contagion from the continent". The UK rejection of the euro was the obvious proof that the UK never truly embraced the EU from the beginning.
3
I'm afraid this is going to lead to chaos, and it will only get worse. There's years of negotiations coming up to determine the economic relationship between the UK and the rest of Europe. I doubt, though, the current English (and I mean English) government will negotiate in good faith. One of the pillars of Brexit is disdain and resentment for anything European. The government's core supporters will oppose any terms that might benefit the Europeans, even if the UK benefits as much or even more.
These supporters also will demand not only draconian restrictions on immigration but expulsion of the current legal immigrant population. I'm sure they'll polite at first. Then not. And the Unionists in Northern Ireland will demand the government renege on its commitment to a soft customs regime, no matter how much it enrages the Catholic population.
And that brings up Scottish nationalism. There's so many ways that could go, and almost none of them are good. Culloden: The Sequel anyone?
1
Just as the election of Donald J Trump has destroyed the idea of the United States.
7
Independent people scare the bureaucrats and globalists. England lights the way,
3
You have people voting on an issue about which
they have zero understanding: all they know is they are angry and it’s someone else’s fault.
Brexit is the result.
Ask anyone who voted for it why, and what were they hoping to achieve. I doubt you would get a coherent answer.
But then anger always ends up hurting oneself.
6
Seems like a major step backwards for the UK and the EU. Have the British forgotten 1939 to 1945? An Anglo-American friend told me his sister was in favor of Brexit because she was tired of the EU controlling the size of cucumbers that could be sold. HUH? He told her she was crazy.
Or was Brexit really about darker migrants and the fears of people who didn't interact with them in their daily lives.
4
@Hambone Willie
Might help matters if maybe we didn't remember 1939 to 1945 so much.
Not in the long run. The UK is now a money laundering center of Europe. They have very little else left to offer the world.
2
Brexit is not a defeat of Europe.
Brexit is a defeat of the American Post WW2 Concept of Europe. An obsolete, shopworn American Experiment to remold Europe in the image of America.
..
From NATO, to Common Market, to the IMF.....and now the Frankenstein Creation of the European Union......with three different captials each run by non-elected bureaucrats who rule by fiat with the approval from Bankers who believe in their own "Divine Right to Rule"(most European Bankers are the descendants of Aristocrats, anyway).
...
It is time for the USA to chart its own course and stop pretending to run the entire Planet.
1
There is nothing- not even impeachment - that brings out legions of gloaters and expert prognosticators like Brexit.
Strange, considering how insignificant they think the UK already is.
3
It's keeping illegal, disruptive migrants out of Britain which is at the heart of Brexit and the ascendency of Boris Johnson.
I would imagine that if Britain could avail itself of the economic benefits of EU membership, without getting stuck with EU rules as to immigrants and border control, that they'd enthusiastically go along with that.
I don't blame a country for wanting to exercise border and immigration control so as to preserve its national identity and not have to deal with incompatible migrants that Germany, mostly, let into the continent, and who would dilute the prevailing culture.
The nation-state Britain is for the British and those certain select foreigners whom they choose, in their sole discretion, to offer residency and eventually citizenship. This is not something that should be forced down their throats by Germany and Merkel as a condition of EU membership.
Germany already messed up Europe twice. Here we go again, but for the ascendency of Boris Johnson, a New York boy with Trump-like hair, looking out for Britain's interest.
3
This says it all. Quote "“Brexit is a defeat, a rebellion against the concept that working together makes Europeans stronger,’’ said Rosa Balfour, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund."
1
The EU has given birth to a new class of people to which I belong. This class is composed of members of the EU who have spent so many years in another EU country that they feel, really feel, European before anything else.
A British citizen who has evolved to this point finds them self in the absurd position of having to apply for the nationality of their host country in order to officially remain European.
There are a whole bunch of us who are beginning to feel stateless. We desperately need a European passport.
8
It was a defeat in the same way that it is a tragedy when a geriatric pet that has been causing nothing but vet bills and carpet stains dies: it may be sad, but the relief is palpable.
The UK has not managed to come to terms with the fact that it no longer has an empire, nor has it behaved as a good partner in the EU. Goodbye and good riddance. They'll whine and scratch at the door again eventually. We'll remember them turning their backs on our anthem, and the braying Farage in our parliament, and the lies and abuse peddled by the Russia-sponsored right wingers, and we'll have to think long and hard about allowing them back.
4
Maybe allow them in peacemeal, as a bunch of smaller seperate nations. That way they won't have any influence, and they'll know it.
Not just England and Wales separately, long after Scotland and Ireland, but as separate counties, sitting at the table behind Liechtenstein. Although combining them into a country of four to five counties each would simplify things a bit.
But no matter what, no exemptions, no privileges - use the Euro and drive on the right hand side.
1
Congratulations to Great Britain! The country will be around alot longer then the EU
3
The EU is lauded as a peace-dividend of the post-WWII era, and as a device that prevents European countries from being at each other’s throats.
It was that maybe 50 years ago. But now it’s just a cynical club of Christian nations (No thank you Turkey, you just can’t make the grade, ever) that expanded East to find poorer former Soviet countries to provide cheap labor. And the goal was to make sure that labor was poor, white and Christian, because the one thing Europe wanted least of all was non-white, non-Christian immigration. So, it is a cynical utopia, with race-religion at its core, and a bizarre, bullying bureaucracy.
Much has been made of Britain’s bigotry and xenophobia during Brexit, but Europe way outdoes the UK in this regard. Period.
The UK is quite simply a proud nation that chafed mightily at receiving Brussels’ dictates constantly. This is a huge loss for the EU, and maybe also for the UK. But the EU pushed Britain to this divorce.
3
A defeat for the EU, a defeat for the USA, a defeat for world peace. And a victory for Vladimir Putin, but not for Russia, which should have JOINED the EU and NATO rather than oppose them.
Our radically uninformed and uninhibited President thinks the EU is an enemy of the USA. He's totally wrong.
The IDEA of what became the EU goes back to our reasons for entering WWI over 100 years ago. Following the Great War, the writings of Austrian Richard Coudenhove-Kalergi for a "United States of Europe", not an empire, but a confederation took root at the same time that both the Democrat Wilson and the Republicans who succeeded him were ALL pushing for a balance of power between the eternal enemies of Germany, Britain, France, and Italy.
After WWII, the USA ENCOURAGED the formation of the ECSC, the EEC, and EurAtom, even with only 6 nations. When they merged into the EU, little changed. The plan was ALWAYS to have an economic bulwark in Europe as an ally to match the military alliance of NATO.
How on EARTH did Trump ever graduate from the Wharton School at U-Penn without EVER understanding basic economics and trade theory?
1
I hope I live long enough to see britain be the third rate country it deserves to be. They exit only due to the ubnbridled exploitation of other countries for hundreds oy years. there wealth has never been based on what is on that island.
3
Idea of Europe? Good riddance to that. The only point of that "idea" was for US to simplify dealings with its European protectorate. That protectorate is no longer worth the price of its upkeep. It may still make some sense for small Central and Eastern European countries to continue banding together for the benefit of size, but there is no reason whatsoever for UK, France, Germany or even Italy to hang around and keep throwing good money after bad into this failed project. EU is done. Whoever gets out of it first will be the least sorry of the bunch. Well done, UK!
3
The primary objective of the European Union was to peacefully tie Germany politically and economically to the rest of Europe.
That was the lesson of two world wars that originated in Europe from Berlin.
Winning the peace in order to avoid the next war is always the much more critical and difficult challenge.
Ironically the Britsh royal house has been German for centuries.
While there are more German Americans than there are any other kind of Americans by cultural and language national origin. Including the Trump German Scottish famlly.
English is a Germanic language.
2
The EU has over reached. The march towards increased “federalization” of Europe was to much.
Now if Trump would live up to his promise to take the US out of NATO.
As with other things, Europe may be miscalculating its disunity. Even so, this is just a stumble.
I’ve met many Europeans, and British, who charge that America is racist, and if only America were more like them. Yes, America is racist, yes. However, in Europe, in its series of homogenous states, latent racism went undiscovered for a long time. I’ve seen more blatant racism in Europe than the US, such as my American friend with Chinese ancestry not being allowed into the bathroom at the train station, referred instead to one “downstairs,” while white customers were continuously ushered in.
So also may hold true for disunity. Its one thing for the Italians or Greeks to identify with Europe in an abstract cultural sense, but another to adhere to a German restructuring of their economy. The various Spanish regions aren’t certain they even want to be part of Spain. Its one thing for the Germans or French to identify as European, another to share governing choices with their neighbors. These sensibilities can be a strength, though.
The EU’s stumble here, a stumble, is that it has so far failed to recognize its diversity and the strength inherent in that. Instead it has papered itself over with bureaucracy. There has always been a strong historical divide between “Continental” Europe and Britain. While disappointing, not surprising. Brexit may allow the EU more latitude to reset.
1
Brexit is on par with FakeDonalds exit from Global warming world pact, or his withdrawal from Iran Deqal or his accommodation with Putin and other dictators. But Brexit is a desire to bring back the "English" empire. That is not going to happen.
England never thought it was a part of Europe. It did not need to be part of a treaty that defined the boundaries of various European nations, Britain was never European after Henry VIII declared a separate church of England. So Brexit is English peoples fantasy of going alone like fakeDonald.
2
Brexit is a big blow to millions of us Brits who thought our future was as part of a family of similar European countries. It seems we were wrong to assume the country was comfortable with this future. It seems we as a country have yet to come to terms with what we are and what our place in the world should be post Imperial Empire. Our leading politicians seem more influenced by their desire to impede French & German influence & try and maintain their own on the world stage, than encourage a proper national debate on this. English nationalism won't provide long term answers. Meanwhile all this is sapping energy, time and effort that should be spent working with other countries on the world's really pressing issues. When we leave tomorrow It will be a very sad day and the answer to nothing!
1
Defeat for everyone? Not for Russia, at least in the short term. Russia cannot compete economically, and its biggest customer bloc is now in disarray.
2
I disagree.
This is another step in the process of the deterioration of "Great" Britain. As a member of the EU, they had the opportunity to "step up their game" in producing goods and services that people in other countries would demand, and fell way short competing for those Euros.
1
I'm a bit surprised the author is silent on UK's early decision not to accept a common currency, agreed to by all other members. Monetary nationalism was the "canary in the coal mine" leading to the eventual vote of BREXIT. It was when, not if, the UK departed.
@Philip
There are several eu countries that do not use the euro:-
Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
1
@Philip
You are incorrect.
Denmark and Sweden also opted not to adopt the Euro.
@Al Walters Uh...He includes both countries in his list of places that have retained their own currency.
Putin smiles. Everything is working so well!
Britain is no longer Great Britain, just England.
He owns Trump and an unknown number of Republicans in the Congress.
He has a treaty with China.
The Eastern parts of the EU are becoming more autocratic. He gets along well with Turkey's Erdogan.
His policy is working in the Middle East and with time Ukraine and the Baltics will be his.
And Trump and the Republicans have given him the green light to determine the 2020 election results.
6
My fear is to see Britain disrupted, if Scottland obtains its independance ? More North Ireland asking to be linked with Eire. It might to have new tensions in Ireland. That will weaken United Kingdom but also in despite of all western Europe. It will be more than a disaster but a tragedy.
No, my British neighboors didn't reflect what could may having as consequences. It is a pity for Great Britain but also for Europe.
3
@Jean-Michel
Scotland will be much better off staying in the UK and they know it. It is unlikely that Northern Ireland will want to be part of a united Ireland whilst Eire remain in the EU. If Eire left the EU it might happen.
On the other hand, now that the UK are leaving the EU it will make Eire a far flung outpost of the EU. Most of irish trade is with the UK. Eire would be better off it was more aligned with the UK.
1
@NP
Scotland will be much better off staying the the EU and they know it.
A good number of UK businesses would quickly relocate to Scotland if it were to remain in the EU.
The EU/UK Withdraw Agreement has essentially reunited Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. All that's left is the formal declaration and a bit of paperwork.
2
@Al Walters
Wrong! Infact when Scotland were having their independence referendum in in 2014, many of the larger companies based in Scotland were getting ready to relocate to England.
1
Europe is a work in progress, not a static idea. Britain since its entry has had an ambivalent position between an integrated Europe and an Atlantic (US) alliance.
The choice is now even starker, siding with a retrenching antagonistic US power or an emerging China. It seems to the US that it will not allow both positions.
The current Brexit (before called Eurosceptic) leaders have the view that they will be within the US orbit, do frictionless trade with you Europe (without contributing to the cost), and become a safe haven for Chinese money/finance and trade. It seems unlikely that they can attain such contradictory goals. This will take at least one decade to become apparent.
Another aspect of Brexit (at the electoral level) was the desire of the general public to drastically reduce immigration (which is one of the common element between Trumpism and Brexit). The UK (and more particularly London finance and service-based) economy has greatly benefited from an open immigration and economic policy. If Brexit ends up closing down this, it will damage the economy and the well-being of the society to a far extend than imagined by the public here. The attrition of talent is slow and will take again a decade to show itself.
So the benefits or damages of Brexit will only be visible in 10 years from now. By that time, Europe will be different too.
1
The loss will be mutual but the split has been written long ago when the Brits stole a lot of Greek shipping biz, not to mention keeping its own currency, £, instead of the €, has been such a long tell.
So whose fault is it anyway? Neither the Brits nor the EU folks have spent any efforts to integrate themselves after the initial grand plan. Then came the Great Recession and no one could cover up with all the glaring disparities between the rich countries and the not-so-rich countries. The disparities the far right gang has exploited so thoroughly in so many countries
The UK claim they want to leave to regain sovereignty in regard to the European Court of Justice and immigration. For this, the UK are willing to sever ties to the EU, thus leading to a diminished economy. If so, so be it. But those who voted to leave should be apprised of the consequences--that is, lower wages, less wealth and more uncertainty.
3
"Unity makes strong", they say.
The U.K. does not agree.
It claims going it alone does pay.
As Trump would say: "We'll see!"
1
Now that Brexit will be achieved on Friday, the work on the weekend will start the process of reintegration. Regardless of what many appear to think, there is plenty of trade to transact between Europe and the UK. Commerce, which is a reason for the EU in the first place, will march forward. This is probably fine with many member states.
Johnson and Trump will announce a big trade at some point. All will be good.
This takes a bit of the spotlight off the France and its pensions--a far more serious problem. It is one thing to tell the Greeks they can't retire at age 50 because their nation is broke, but another to tell a French that. How retirement will be financed and by whom hangs out there.
5
Met with lawyers in London this week. These have a large practice in financial services. One told me deals in progress just died on the day after the last British election. Despite the stiff upper lip and all that, the view about the future of London’s place in the financial world can most politely be described as “deep concern”. After a few beers at the pub they’ll even start talking about their contingency plans - that usually involve moving away.
Given the financial sector represents an enormous part of the British economy and the EU represents an enormous part of that trade, the populists will get exactly what they voted for, giving the top spot to NYC and Frankfurt.
4
UK has been the 2nd largest net contributor to the EU after Germany. The remaining 27 EU countries will now depend on primarily on Germany with France, Italy and the Netherlands each contributing about 1/3 of that. It’s a big loss however you spin it.
7
@CNNNNC
This fact was only recently revealed in European newspapers. Shocking revelation to ill-informed Europeans who were lead all along to believe the exact opposite.
So, Brits were not a bunch of ingrate takers after all. It will be interesting to see which country will join the EU next and pick up the slack? Turkey? Macedonia?
1
The UK will be absolutely fine outside the EU. The UK is better placed to go it alone than most countries in the EU.
Look at the geography. Many of the smaller countries in central europe are land-locked and border up to 7 other countries. it makes more sense for them to have frictionless borders and be part of the EU.
On the other hand the UK is a maritime nation surrounded by water. It is not an insular inward looking country. It is a flourishing, dynamic and innovative nation. The EU keeps the UK from capitalising on trade with other major economies such as Japan, China, India and the US.
The UK is a net contributor to the EU and pays in about £13 Billion per year and gets back about £4 Billion. It does not makes economic sense.
When the UK joined what was the EEC back in 1973 it was just a trading co-operative with 6 founder members. Now the EU is something totally different with 28 members and likely to get bigger.
The UK no longer wants to be controlled and regulated by the inflexible, bureaucratic and bloated EU.
7
@NP Good luck with that. Trump is offering you the best trade deal of all times, so I hear. So much winning.
1
UK was vulnerable to a facebooks election about banning immigrants. Yaay success!
(Don’t count on USA)
1
A lot of Brit hating on here.
We just want to leave an EU that doesn't give a direct vote for its President or its lawmakers (which are the Commission members not the Parliamentarians) and be an independent nation making its own laws like Canada, Australia, S Korea, Singapore or NZ (all of whom have smaller economies).
It's merely an opportunity. One that can lead either way just as when the thirteen colonies left the British Empire because they had the temerity to want to make their own laws and shape their own destiny. We are not leaving Europe, which the UN recognises as 44 nations, but the political entity that is the EU (now)27. Nor are we cutting off any diplomatic ties or cultural connections. We will be partners with the EU not ruled by its court or its un (directly) elected President.
Brits never voted to join the EU. In 1975 we voted to remain in a 9 member EEC, which was a trading bloc accounting for a third of global trade. This morphed from a trading to a political union without the UK electorate being asked. The union has expanded to 27 nations that only now account for a quarter of global trade with really slow growth. The dynamic economies are all in Asia and Africa. Leaving the EU gives us more opportunity to trade with these nations as well as our Commonwealth and the US.
Que sera but directly-electing your lawmakers and Chief Executive strikes me as a better model than the top-down EU's, which Americans themselves would never stomach.
5
@John
You lay out the Brexit case very well. I worked for 20 years with Brussels based trade associations dealing with EU issues and the complaints about EU red tape were European wide- it wasn't just the Brits. And they often weren't the most vocal.
Example: Our voluntarily agreed to standards lowering certain chemicals in our products was nit picked and sat on by the EU parliament for years. It would have been adopted in a year by my members' individual country legislatures.
I never detected anything anti-European in my Brit members' sentiments. They were anti-EU red tape, a sentiment often times more vociferously expressed by their French, German, Danish, Belgian, etc fellow European colleagues.
Brexit might actually wind up saving the best part of the EU enterprise -furthering economic integration and cultural exchange among Europeans by learning not to ram policies they didn't vote for down their throats and thwarting their economic progress with red tape.
5
@John So when does Scottland gets a chance for a referendum?
2
From Yes, Minister:
James Hacker:
You know what they say about the average Common Market [EU] official. He has the organising ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans, and the modesty of the French. And that's topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch and the intelligence of the Irish.
1
The idea the UK is a big loss for the EU does not sit very well with many continental Europeans, as it does with the"anglo world"of the Commonwealth and of course the US. There often people and commentator do not grasp the fact the with a population of half a billion people (from Friday a little less) the highest GDP in world (average) the strongest manufacturing in the world (...yes ain't China), it remains the only place in the globe where at least you can try, despite all the problems, to balance free enterprise and welfare.
Also The UK has always been perceived as a difficult partner, truly an island; it was the last to enter the Union (out of interest when the country was the sick man of Europe) and first to leave, due a populist choice that betrayed the will of 50% of its population. Often UK at EU parliament voted to block common initiatives, including the process a EU defense something the US,Russia and China do want to happen. The UK also got a lot of money from EU and despite its claim, it was not among the three biggest contributors to the budget (Germany France and Italy are). The sad aspect of Brexit is that, unlike the big three (Germany France, Italy) does not have a strong manufacturing and London will become even more a "sultanate" for the rich and all type of wold organized crime in search of money laundering.
But there is hope, people from Scotland and Ireland who have no intention to be cut off from the the Eu soon will vote to join the Union.
8
England will continue to atrophy and fade from significance along with the star British comedy team known as the British Royalty.
4
@Celeste: Ireland is already a member of the EU. If the people of Northern Ireland feel that being part of the EU is that important, their options are to join the Republic of Ireland (more likely since it would automatically resume EU membership) or try to go it alone as an independent nation (less likely for historical and practical reasons, plus it would have to apply for EU membership just like any other new country).
1
@Celeste Isn't Ireland already part of the EU?
As Chirac (always with his great sense of humor) when they were competing for the olympics and said their cuisine was so great - Chirac said "yes, they were known for Mad Cow disease"! Now with their trading with the US (I suppose) they will have chlorinated chicken and meat pumped full of hormones and antibiotics. Good Luck Little England.
10
Dealing with Trump, England will be the meal. London will continue to be a great walking city, Kew Gardens will beautify in April, and theatre will continue with its excellent performances and talent.
Then take the Chunnel to Paris and enjoy the beauty of France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal terminating the visit with Germany’s most significant contribution to European history, the concentration camps.
As a Brit who favoured remaining in Europe, I could quite easily argue a better phase would have been "It's an Alaskan-size Defeat." Alaska is, afterall, by far the largest US state.
2
putin is eating caviar with a spoon.
china is waiting to cash in.
scotland will join the eu.
britain, erstwhile empire, will lose its adjective; great no more.
uk has been a thorn in the eu since inception, mourning its lost empire.
but everyone loses; eu is a peace project-at that it has suceeded beyondcthe imaginable. where it failed was in the capitalist takeover.
4
@John: Scotland would have to become an independent nation first. And during the run up to the last referendum for independence, the EU flat out stated that should Scotland become independent, it would have to apply to join the EU as a new country. It wouldn't be automatically admitted just because the country it split off from was (at the time) an EU member,
@retnavybrat
But, given the other small countries that have joined in recent years, is there any reason to believe that Scotland would be refused entry?
1
Let me confess my ignorance: Will Britain need to make a bunch of new laws to avoid upsetting the apple cart? And what happens to lawsuits in the EU court now under way?
2
In the long run the UK will suffer and the EU will not. I suspect over time the EU will realize they are way better off. The UK is a metaphor for Snow White's evil queen. There aren't enough mirrors in the world to keep it happy. Never mind that it will now be an extremely poor country that eventually loses Scotland and Ireland, both of which will be EU members. Good riddance.
8
@Jonny Walker this is the second comment on this thread vis a vis "the UK will lose Ireland" or "Ireland will join the EU" or some such thing. Ireland has been independent (again) for almost 100 years. It joined the EU at least 15 years ago. What am I missing in these comments.
(I think it relates to the fact that 100 years ago, six of the nine Ulster counties voted to stay in the UK, whereas 3 Ulster counties and all the other counties in Ireland voted for independence. I suspect when the similar vote called for in this agreement is held in a few years, all or all but one will so vote this time.)
3
@Jonny Walker: Ireland is an independent nation and has been for quite some time. Perhaps you're thinking of Northern Ireland?
1
Megxit by the Duke and Duchess of Suffolk will look brilliant in five years compared to Brexit.
2
My grandfather served with the Royal Navy in WWI, and circumnavigated the globe afterwards with Admiral Jellicoe to assess the dominions' readiness for another war. I can't imagine what Grandad would say were he alive to see this. How the mighty have fallen.
2
The British government will end upas the weaker part, they are ni longer the empire they once were and their dependency on the EU is greater than they estimate
2
“Texas sized defeat for the EU”?! It’s far worse for the UK. Its global wealth, power and influence will be a fraction of what it once was.
3
I am sad that the EU is in trouble because of Brexit, which I think is a huge mistake for Great Britain (which could also result in the breakup of Great Britain), but the EU must take some ownership of this result. The EU was guilty of huge overreach and consumed huge sums of money with little accountability. I hope that the remaining countries can learn to reconfigure their governance and financial practices to stuff it to the Brexiteers by succeeding to retain a functioning confederation while it watches England sink further into the sunset that it has been experiencing for over a hundred years. The Brits just cannot seem to accept their proportionate place in the world.
“Great Britain” is an oxymoron. It is anything but great. Soon it will no longer exist. The pieces will be known as Scotland, Ireland, and England.
1
@Mister Ed
"Little accountability"?
All EU accounts are audited and signed off yearly.
As a U.K. citizen I feel the loss of the E.U. very strongly. I’m still yet to hear from a brexiteer a good reason for leaving. Bigotry was a big driver in the referendum along with a poisonous media infecting the ignorant with nonsense. I know this sounds harsh and leaves me wide open to metropolitan elite sneers. But that’s nonsense too. I’m from the working class, I’ve benefited from social mobility through the policies of our transformative 1945 government. Most importantly I’ve retained my engagement and not retreated into an insular bubble which sadly so many in the leave voting areas have. Brexit is a tragic mistake which we will rue for many a day. The truth is we have been led to this place by elites - privately educated wealthy men like Farage, Tice, Ratcliffe, Dyson, Johnson, Gove the list goes on. They have stolen our country and our future.
145
@Michael
As someone viewing this from afar, the electorate had a few bites at the apple on this issue and the last one was an overwhelming vote for conservative.
I think it is tragic that the Labour Party was in disarray, They were not included amongst your list of thieves. Perhaps they could be the Keystone Cops?
1
@Michael With Brexit accomplished......Great Britain is less encumbered and prepared to enter an even greater Trade Network..........the Commonwealth of Nations..
If I were in Britain, I would be preparing for a more positive role in a sharper defined Commonwealth, which is the remnants of the Empire....all with common language, laws, and governmental systems........much better geared for economic success than the Babble of European Aristocrats called the European Union.
2
Sorry for your loss. Being a citizen of a country following your footsteps into oblivion I can empathize. Like father, like son.
12
I disagree with this article. Johnson and his followers have told lies about the EU for years. I think the EU is in a much better place now that the Brits have gone.
3
The eastern European countries that Britain worked hard to bring in are the EU's biggest problem right now. The EU will probably be better off without England, anyway. And the US might just be better off without Texas as well.
3
The EU will be a better place without Britain, which has been a major pain in the neck of everyone from the first until the last day of membership.
Good luck, farewell, no hard feelings and thanks for the fish!
53
Ok, you had to know that you were inviting the “usual suspects” to come and play. As I have discussed previously, the “usual suspects” are posters who consistently argue the Kremlin party line. Brexit, like Ukraine, is just one of those subjects which serves as a honey trap for FSB employees.
3
Let's not jump to conclusions just yet.
1
I hope the EU comes out of this stronger.
The real threat is Russia which has worked hard to destabilize Europe. I doubt they stop now.
2
It's a pity, but the result of a French interest driven EU policy.
3
Congratulations Great Britain! We wish you the best in your decision! When we think back to the years of obstructive & venomous hysteria displayed in the House of Commons - what a sight - as if it was, literally, the end of the world.....well, the voters rejected it & the voters put an end to it, thanks to their courage & Johnson's maneuvers.
2
Very little of what is said in this article is accurate.
While Brexit may very well be a Texas-sized defeat, the defeat is for the United Kingdom, not the European Union.
Throughout its EU membership the UK has consistently blocked EU efforts towards greater integration, more robust financial oversight, stronger human/worker rights, establishment of an EU defence forces, etc. Thanks to Brexit, that obstructive force is now being removed. The result will be a much stronger and more united European Union.
The notion that the UK leaving will somehow drive the EU towards Russia is completely absurd. Compared to Russia the EU is 3 times its size, has a combined military that dwarfs Russia's, and the EU's economy is 8 times larger than Russia's. One should not assume the EU to be weak simply because it does not pursue the warmongering policies of the US or Russia.
It should be noted that we're expecting to see the breakup of the UK within the next couple of years as both Scotland and Northern Ireland pursue their interests independent of England.
However this isn't to say that the European Union doesn't have its challenges. But the EU's challenges are not all that different from any other large, diverse union of peoples. At least now it can meet them without the hindrance of the obstructionist United Kingdom.
12
@Al Walters
I believe Brexit could well be an instrument that helps save the core values of the EU.
I spent a lot of my formative years in France in the 50's, have always had an interest in European affairs, and worked as an attorney with international trade associations in Brussels on EU matters for 20 years. The complaints, and not just from the Brits, concerned EU red tape, chiefly emanating in EU the parliament. I think perhaps the parliament for THE PRESENT may have been a bridge too far in the historical evolution of the EU.
The Brits aren't going to abandon all of the Brussels based trade and professional associations, many of which were started there to further the Marshall Plan and its progeny the subsequent EU integration. They are going to continue to work through them to smooth the transition.
The strong personal and professional bonds that have developed over the decades since WWII in rebuilding Europe aren't going to disappear because of Brexit.
I don't see Brexit bricking up the Chunnel.
3
I can't say I agree with you. England was, at best, a reluctant member of the European Union... the grumpy grandfather at the dinner table... the argumentative partner in a soured relationship.
The European Union still consists of 27 nations, which makes it a formidable collation. On the other hand, England is now a 'small' nation, as the Irish Taoiseach said recently, that faces a David v Goliath battle in every (trade) deal they try to negotiate.
Old sayings such as - 'there's safety in numbers' and 'there's strength in numbers' didn't stand the test of time because they're false. Quite the opposite in fact.
To answer the question - would the EU be stronger with England in it? - I think the answer clearly is 'yes', which is why years from now the current younger generation in England may well decide to re-join the Union. Time will tell of course.
3
I can't say I agree with you. England was, at best, a reluctant member of the European Union... the grumpy grandfather at the dinner table... the argumentative partner in a soured relationship.
The European Union still consists of 27 nations, which makes it a formidable collation. On the other hand, England is now a 'small' nation, as the Irish Taoiseach said recently, that faces a David v Goliath battle in every (trade) deal they try to negotiate.
Old sayings such as - 'there's safety in numbers' and 'there's strength in numbers' didn't stand the test of time because they're false. Quite the opposite in fact.
To answer the question - would the EU be stronger with England in it? - I think the answer clearly is 'yes', which is why years from now the current younger generation in England may well decide to rejoin the Union. Time will tell of course.
I can't say I agree with you. England was, at best, a reluctant member of the European Union... the grumpy grandfather at the dinner table... the argumentative partner in a soured relationship.
The European Union still consists of 27 nations, which makes it a formidable collation. On the other hand, England is now a 'small' nation, as the Irish Taoiseach said recently, that faces a David v Goliath battle in every (trade) deal they try to negotiate.
Old sayings such as - 'there's safety in numbers' and 'there's strength in numbers' didn't stand the test of time because they're false. Quite the opposite in fact.
To answer the question - would the EU be stronger with England in it? - I think the answer clearly is 'yes', which is why years from now the current younger generation in England may well decide to rejoin the Union. Time will tell of course.
Britain is the loser - cut off from cheap food and wine, no more properties in the south of France, no more jobs on the Continent. I more cheap holiday travel. They will be at the whims of the US, Russia, and China. The US is already suffering from the ack of skilled foreign labor. Americans have neither the will nor the ability to work construction. The immigrants are not the ones on the dole!
@Barbara Brits have been wintering in the south of France for hundreds of years. How does this change that?
(And what does "Americans not having the ability to work construction..." Not only not true but so far off topic it defies explanation)
1
In that sense Brexit has unleashed a bigger and long overdue political overhaul.
Overdue indeed.
Brits could use this opportunity to become a true Republic and overthrow monarchy.
And take the Magna Carta to its correct and logical conclusion that we in America took to.
And just see the difference what it has made to America.
I lived and worked in UK and have great friends there. The brits with this class conscious society fed, supported and strengthened by a royalty has weakened the social fabric.
While many claim that brit royalty is wonderful for tourists - it does no good for commoners who are pay taxes to support their "masters."
So, I suggest - brits take this opportunity of freedom to be able to echo MLK Jr
“Free at last, Free at last, Thank God almighty we are free at last.”
1
Like the coronavirus once bitten and infected by the populist bug societies become hostage to the demagogues' dictates and succumb to serious troubles as the coronavirus infected humanity and the Brexit hit Britain would suggest. It is not EU's failure, rather the sense loss of a nation that once claimed to be the Great Britain, now reduced to be a little kingdom,thanks to a power hungary and maverick, Boris Johnson.
Russia ran a propaganda campaign designed to sow division, and succeeded in splitting the EU. Britain will be fine because it will align more closely with the US and we will fight their trade battles for them. The result is simply a slightly weaker EU.
1
If I can take one consolation from this whole sorry affair it's that maybe this needed to happen. Watching from a distance these last few years it's clear how England – and England specifically – is straight-jacketed to its past. Specifically its Thatcherite past, IMO.
After the Suez Crisis in 1956 Britain seemed to realise it was no longer a leading player and couldn't boss its way in the world. Thus by 1961 the UK was asking to join the then EEC, and in the '70s it finally did join and doubled-down on membership in a confirmatory referendum in 1975.
Then came the Falklands War with the result that suddenly people felt like Britain could do it all solo again, rescuing colonies in far-flung parts of the world. The hardships and austerity of World War II were forgotten and conflict was reimagined as the shining example of plucky little Britain facing down the evil forces of the European continent all on its lonesome.
It's that poisonous attitude that's at the root of all of this. How right the Sex Pistols were 40 years ago when they sang "there's no future in England's dreaming". England needs a wake-up call and maybe the harsh realities of life alone outside the EU will provide the cold shower required. With the EU bogeyman removed, Scotland sure to leave, Northern Ireland likely to join the Republic (even if only for demographic reasons), England (and maybe Wales) will finally be forced to look hard at itself and realise its problems are all of its own making.
Brexit is a Texas-size defeat for the EU with UK-size devastation. The predictions about Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Nationalist survival ideology are already coming true for marginalized people of the UK, mostly women, children and disabled people. It's the same here with President Trump and his tariffs and cuts to social welfare. Brexit will weaken the UK militarily.
Sir Winston Churchill would never have approved of Brexit anymore than FDR would. Neither would support Mr. Trump's nationalist policies, which has alienated the EU and worsened our isolation. It could be the economic ruin of the UK and USA, if not lead to a revolution.
It's about helping one another as best as possible to build a coalition of coexistence and protect against fascist dictators. History may have to repeat itself to remind those who voted for Brexit and Mr. Trump that they were clearly warned, especially if climate change is not addressed globally in reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
1
"The loss of such a rich, sizable, powerful member state will weaken the European Union’s momentum and its diplomatic weight."
They may align themselves more closely with Russia and China.
1
Follow the money in Brexit. Do the 1% receive the most tax relief? The EU can continue making member nations financially and economically successful. The people of the UK are facing challenging times.
4
The outcomes may not be pretty - neither for the UK/England nor for the EU but if a majority of people in the UK would rather be outside the union then so be it.
I remember how this went on for decades, reaching back to Margarat Thatcher and her populist cries for relief from the EC and on and on.
After all, the UK has to figure out where its place in history and in the world should be. And those countries who are convinced a membership in the EU is part of their destiny can stop begging another country to comply with its rules and to be loyal to its values and goals.
Now both sides can find out first hand what leaving the union will mean (or remaining - for that matter).
The EU and the UK have to now do the hard work and keep working on policies and strategies for a sustainable future - with the difference that their fates will be less closely tied to each other.
3
The majority of the people want to be in the EU as of right now. Poll after poll after poll confirms this, as does every sensible demographic analysis of voter trends. To put it bluntly, the leave vote was heavily due to old highly suggestible old people reading tabloid rubbish. So much so, that it is a statistical certainty that so many of them have died in the period 2016-2020 that remain would now easily win. Which is exactly why leavers pushed so hard against a confirmatory or clarification vote, even though had had they won such a vote it would have strengthened their hand domestically and in brussels. Brexit continues to be a spectacular own goal that will make britain poorer, contribute essentially nothing to "sovereignity", and turn britain into not much more economically than turkey or brazil plus or minus marginally more ability to attract more dodgy russian and arab money to launder by dint of escaping the light of upcoming eu regulations.
1
Britain will disintegrate within a decade with Scotland and a united Ireland as independent countries. England will wag its tail furiously but in the end, it will become a has-been in the emerging world order. It is always bittersweet to see the end of a once-dominating power but it is inevitable if history is to be believed.
3
First, kudos to Mr. Erlanger for an excellent comprehensive article on a very complicated subject.
You rang all the many bells - no easy task.
But my read on this -Things will work out.
I worked with a Brussels based international trade association for 20 years. I saw a lot of frustration with EU red tape from all of my members, not just the Brits. Pro clean air voluntarily agreed to standards for their products were held up in the EU parliament for years by indifference and knit picks. Their individual countries would've enacted them in a year.
But the Brits are going to stay in all those Brussels based trade associations to work things out with the EU long after Brexit.
Most of the plethora of trade associations in Brussels were born with the Marshall Plan and were instrumental in creating the EU.
I don't see the Chunnel being bricked up anytime soon.
2
So, about your "pro clean air regulation" anecdote. The eu sets benchline, minimum standards. Any given country has always been free to exceed this. So, for example. Johnsons claims that out of the eu the uk will "finally" be able to improve workers rights through parliamentary action is an abject, outright, no holes barred lie--they have always had that ability. In the uk theres a particular group of cretins going around celebrating brexit on the basis that it will enable britain to "re-wild" (essentially re-forest) certain pastureland on the claim that eu farm subsidies made farming the land too attractive--nevee mind fhat such land was pasture since the 1600s or that the uk always had the ability to do this though parliamentary action, as several other eu member states have done. Essentially every major claim of brexiteers falls totally apart under examination. The only two that stand up are that britains financial criminals will escape the ecj (european court of justice) and new tougher money laundering laws... which, between that, a bit of generalized racism and envy, and putins willingness to destroy covilization so that he can equivocate, is all that brexit has ever been about. Nearly all of the chief brexiteers have alternative (typically irish) passports in their back pockets.
The eu should take the gloves off on feb 1-- no more playing nice. Send a message. If you invest in currency, dont be fooled by news of a japan fta. The uk is dying.
2
All that is needed to assess the value of the EU to the UK is a quick visit to the website showing EUs contributions to its member states. I went and looked at the UKs development in ALL areas, contributed by EU members. I found the answer to my question "what does the EU contribute to the UK?". I wanted to know for myself.
I was astonished. Developments in infrastructure, education, agriculture, culture, Welsh walking paths...SO MUCH in the past, and for the future: now gone.
Politics and nationalism aside...there will be nothing, for decades, to replace this worthwhile partnership... certainly not the U.S.!
6
The United Kingdom is not united, Scotland and Ireland are holding on by a thread. Great Britain is no longer great, just another country that used to be in charge. The ideals and diversity of the EU is the future. The young eagerness to succeed in continental Europe, especially central and eastern,, is evident everywhere, the optimism is contagious.
8
It is not a defeat, it is a loss. I think most Europeans agree that countries that want to leave, should be free to do so, although we may be disappointed ofcourse if people turn their back to us. In a marriage, would you say the abandoned partner is defeated? Both EU and UK will suffer losses, inevitably, and we will also both see some advantages to the separation in the long run. It would be best to wish each other well and not use this war-like language.
6
England survived the War.
She will survive the EU.
She may become more economically agile
now that she does not have to appeal to Brussels.
I think the UK, Canada, the US of A, Australia and New Zealand
should form an Economic Union.
3
Boy, it sure must be easy to make such pronouncements from up there in idaho, untethered to reality.
So, please allow me to burst your bubble. Can you name a single thing that uk businesses will be able to do on feb 1, 2121 better, cheaper, and easier than they could do right now as eu members with tarriff free access to the largest free trade area in the universe? Dont handwave about supposed "bureaucracy" and "regulations" that you obviously know nothing about. Go on--name one thing short of silly things like suggesting that land rover no longer would have to build cars to european taillight standards (of course it would). Can you sitting in iowa name one good or service that the uk could conceivably sell better or cheaper to the usa than it can now?
I didnt think so.
4
Britain was never a willing partner in the EU to forge an alliance as a centre of influence: Synergy the whole greater than the parts thereof. Nationalism never far from the surface; mob rule? England by retreating from Europe has made a regrettable decision based on illusions of grandeur. No man is an island. Europe must reshape its destiny without the English complaining all the time. Nigel Farage was a thorn in the side of the EU parliament.
Mass immigration as the reason for the English panic attack with desperate people (war refugees) arriving daily by small crafts on the beaches of southern England from Iraq Libya and Afghanistan. Michael Heseltine former deputy PM pointed out more immigrants arriving from non-EU countries than EU. The decline of standards like the national health service not related to the EU. British management has a poor track record with failures including Carillion a major service company holding many government contracts. The taxpayer picked up the losses as with the British banks that went under in 2008 and doubled the national debt. Austerity and inequality the root cause of cause of English anger and frustration. In 2016 EU referendum provided the perfect opportunity to punish the Cameron government and his London crony ruling class. Now Boris Johnson promises the "good old days" hoping for US trade deal. Not impossible but highly unlikely.
4
It's a defeat, but not for the EU.
While it makes sense to have the UK in the EU, Britain has never really been a full member of the EU, and has often been obstreperous or counter-productive.
On the other hand, for those of living in Britain, it's a huge step backwards and not going to improve quality of life or the economy.
17
I'm an American, with a center left disposition and voting record, but I say let a thousand Brexits bloom. It's not about the money for Christ's sake. Identity, family, and belonging are more important than the promises of free trade wealth that never materialized for wage earners. Instead, we've been given a big spoonful of debt, a hyper competitive labor market and are told to be grateful that finally there's a decent Thai restaurant in town. So, every city across the West begins to look the same, as global freedom of movement and goods erases a sense of place or connection to the land or local culture.
To be clear, immigration is fine and can be very beneficial to all involved, but there needs to be a deliberate effort towards assimilation, by both the locals and the immigrant community, especially in the Old World where ethnicity and nationality were one in the same until very recently.
As for military agreements, protect the homeland and defend close allies in the case of an actual invasion. Neither the U.S. nor the E.U. have any business in any other part of the world for so called "national interest" and if we do, let's just call it conquest and not beat around the bush.
Will there be pain? Yes. Will we be objectively poorer? Probably. But even in the worst case scenario... it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.
3
@Dante
So by following this rationale US and Europe should apply a new way forwards by backing-out of the middle east (Syria Iraq and Afghanistan) plus Ukraine in never-ending war with Russia. The Generals need their wars?
We have "no business to be in any other part of the world" except that is where we are today with new US Russia China arms race in COLD WAR 2.0. Wars act as the perfect diversion from the real problems in society. 1984 Orwell: Freedom is Slavery?
@Simon Cardew Yes, back out. Close all the bases. Absolutely.
Watching Nigel Farage get his mic cut in his last speech to the EU parliament perfectly encapsulated why Britain voted to leave. The EU strong-arms its members. Whether it means forcing them to take refugees they don't want and who destabilize their societies, trying to force a constitution that member states wouldn't vote for via the Lisbon treaty, or any of the other tactics they have employed over the years. The British, already in the grip of massive demographic transformation - against the will of the majority - have had enough. To see Nigel Farage stand up and rebuke the anti-democratic EU made me proud. Over the long arc of history the British were the first to articulate real human freedoms: free speech, habeas corpus, universal voting franchise that gave citizens true representation in government. They were a great civilization. And it is heartening to see that even today, they can still stand up for these values.
4
Brexit is a makor defeat for Britain and the latest chapter in its decline since the days of Empire. I want to bet the final agreement between the EU and the UK on trade and other economic relations will look a lot like when the UK was a member of the union, but without any of Britain's say in Brussels.
17
The EU, even with its (relatively unspectacular) imperfections, appears to be the only market taking the climate crisis seriously, while, at the same time, being big and rich enough to set or change the trends in favour of mitigation.
Break the EU up into a bunch of smaller states and leave them to negotiate with the markets of China, Russia, the US on their own? Really?
What does that look like for humanity, when the US, the world's richest economy, is its biggest polluter, and currently rolling back every restriction and effort to forestall rising emissions and prevent ecosystem collapse?
China, also up there among the big economies, makes noises about the crisis, but is building new coal power plants and buying up the stuff from Australia--a country rendering itself uninhabitable in order to sell it to them.
Mine is not a political position. The world scientific community is telling us we have maybe a decade to change course. The EU is a big source of hope for those of us who happen to like human civilisation.
If you're cheering for the collapse of the EU, the only powerful bulwark in the international community against the climate crisis, you must disagree, or be counting yourself out of whatever the future you dream of actually looks like...
12
Brexit is a rejection of globalism, not a rejection of countries with common interests working together with each country maintaining its own identity.
4
Brexit isn’t a rejection of globalism although it’s tempting to think so. For goodness sake, the entire public face of Brexit is a desire to “trade freely” with the rest of the world (whatever that means), make trade agreements independent of the EU and become a Singapore on the Thames! A rejection of globalism? No.
Brexit is largely an English nationalist attempt to find identity by a rerun to the past when Britannia Ruled the Waves. It’s an exercise in delusional nostalgia. It is a solution in search of a problem which doesn’t actually exist. It is the blaming of all social ills on “foreigners” and an utter refusal to look in the mirror and take responsibility for the mistakes that the U.K. has made over decades. It’s always easier to find an external enemy. In this case the EU.
Brexit is simply moving the deckchairs on the Titanic instead of doing something to avoid the iceberg. But it is not a rejection of globalism.
6
@JohnR I can't agree with you. Globalism submerges national interest which is reinforced by history, culture and often language. Nationalism is simply that measure of self-interest that every country is entitled to. That self-interest includes treaties with other nations which are mutually beneficial, but that's not globalism. It's been said that nations don't have friends, only interests. No need to worry about Britannia ruling anything anymore. They are no longer field discernible military and naval power, not when compared to the US, Russia and China. The days of the British Empire are long gone. What I do find interesting is Britain's need, as a western democracy, for a hereditary monarchy that exists on the back of the taxpayers.
1
Enjoy negotiating favorable trade with 27 aligned nations.
12
You state that the UK is the 2nd largest contributor to the EU’s budget, but in your own link it is 3rd, barely above Italy. How can you get such basic information wrong?
8
If you read it again carefully, you will see the article says FRANCE is the second largest economy, and Britain is close to France’s economy in size.
I am sure the eu will thrive post brexit. This article is overly pessimistic.
12
Britain, you may not have noticed, but 45 is only about the deal, which is significantly different than an ally. Don't forget, he has deals with Russia and China, whose foreign policy doesn't always align with yours. The nation with the largest deal potential matters most to 45, and Britain, that isn't you. I wish you well on your negotiations for a trade package with the U.S.; it might not be what you are hoping for.
7
Too funny!
NYT dire predictions for UK 100% wrong, as usual.
Remember NYT announcing the stock market would crash if Trump was elected?
Never trust liberals when it concerns money productivity or freedom
7
@William Rodham
And yet you're also reading the opposite opinion in the NYT. So funny.
4
While the market is up now it’s likely to fall if 45 stays in office, 2008 was not that long ago.
4
Oh, it’s not so bad for the EU. In time they will gain all the U.K. except England. It might be bad for Switzerland and Monaco though, if their banks now have to compete with London for tax dodgers and money launderers.
11
Great Britain had to beg to get into the European Union decades ago. It is now ironic that they are withdrawing. I think everyone will regret this moment.
7
@William O, Beeman
Britain was denied entry by de Gaulle, the same de Gaulle that was extended British hospitality when his country was occupied. He didn't have to beg for it either.
1
If this isn't the formal end of England (GB, UK, whatever) as empire, I don't know what is. Pretty soon Northern Ireland will realize they are better off with the union, and Scotland will wander off, leaving England and Wales, for the time being. Soon they won't even be a whole island nation. And the world will likely be the better for it.
8
If Texas left the United States, there’d be 51 GOP Senators to 47 Dem (Dem 2 margin vs current), House would be 220 Dem vs 174 GOP ( 10 from current) - (I’m leaving out the 5 vacant seats). And 2016 election Trump would have won, but with 38 less EC votes. I fail to see how that wouldn’t be an improvement heading into 2020.
3
@Goblue72
Your oil prices would go up, and you haven't converted to solar or wind yet, not by a long shot.
You would also lose a LOT of recruits for the military. while CA contributes slightly more in total, they contribute a much smaller percent of there 18-24 year-olds than TX (CA has about 50% more people).
To the UK, good riddance. For most of its time as a member of the EU they have stalled actions necessary for better integration and efficiency. So, good for the UK they have achieved their desired end, tootles as they say. Enjoy being a small country with little to export besides finance. Not sure how far that will get the Midlands but good luck.
9
I think we all need to pray for the UK, as I don't think this will be very good for them in the short run. Hopefully, in the long run, things will get back to normal...
2
The rich ignored the less privileged for decades. Can you hear them now? Probably not.
2
Scotland's and Northern Ireland's voters chose overwhelmingly to remain in the EU.
Scotland has the wheels turning for a second independence referendum and the economic consequences of Boris's Brexit deal for Northern Ireland's business will have them leading the way out of England's last grasp at empire and into the welcoming arms of Republic of Ireland.
Northern Ireland is poised to lose more than £350million of European Union (EU) funding to 38,000 farmers and rural projects across Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland's small businesses will be faced with trade friction and all the costs associated.
"Barnier rejects Johnson's claims over Irish Sea trade checks"
'EU’s chief negotiator says UK agreed to checks as part of withdrawal agreement'
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/27/customs-checks-needed-on-irish-sea-trade-after-brexit-eu
7
The bigger the market the more opportunities abound for consumers and producers ....Forming of the EU meant national borders and local currencies were swept away making for more efficient markets and a larger consumer base ... in turn consumers would see more competition and lower prices ... it was a win win... Putin and nationalist forces were threatened by this unity however ... England will rue the day ..
7
Scotland will leave the UK. You can start the clock on Friday.
13
Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last five hundred years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?
Hacker: That's all ancient history, surely?
Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing — set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch... The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.
5
The world did not end with Brexit. The biggest adjustment was the pound after the initial vote, but the pound has been over valued since WWII.
110 yen to the $
1.11 Euros to the $
1.3 Pounds per $
Equilibrium if you ask me.
Now let's see the US make a no tariff deal with Britain and put pressure on the EU to do the same.
Trump not so dumb.
3
It’s actually a Texas-size defeat for the UK (or what will remain of it)...
7
I have been following the Brexit debate, referendum, and the
desparate aftermath of negotiations between Theresa May, and yes B. Johnson for the last 4 years on The Guardian.
I don't think Boris Johnson, as PM, is up to remaking the UK when out of the EU; he has never done anything remotely like this before, and neither have the people in his cabinet. He is best known as a politician as failing as the Mayor of London.
I was almost in tears listening to the magnaminious speech by the Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, and the singing of that Scottish song by the rest of the house.
Compare this to the disgraceful performance by Nigel Farange, Trump's 'friend' and supporter, on his last day in Brussels as an MEP, the only political office he has ever been able to win from a constituency in SE England. He has drawn a salary there for 21 years, and has contributed nothing.
Nigel tried to get elected to the House of Commons in the UK seven times, in five general elections and two by-elections, but has not won any of those elections.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/29/emotional-last-day-brussels-nigel-farage-had-message-eu-didnt/
He was thrown out of the room after that performance, and missed the goodbye from his European, I can't say peers, because he was never their peer.
Yes, the loss of the UK is a loss for the EU. The mess that the UK will descend into now will be a worry to them.
9
Maybe, the British people think of it as their victory.
Always the negative, with the NY Times.
4
Suggestion: let’s have Texas leave and see what happens. I’m gladly willing to take the chance. Worst case, I use my passport to visit my nephews in Dallas.
5
Britain is like a hermit crab, withdrawing into its shell. Very sad.
5
Maybe it will inspire Texans to leave the US...and take their electoral votes with them.
3
Brexit is a loss for the EU, but it is not a defeat. The EU for decades has catered to the UK all the way to making the language of the UK the language of the EU. In 1970 French and German were. For decades the EU has given the UK special treatment; it has allowed the UK to cherry-pick, in German, to pick the raisins off the cake.
What would you have had the EU do when the UK against all reason and self-interest broke away? When Texas did, the US fought a civil war. Should the EU have done that and lost, that would be defeat. But it is now 160 years later and the EU was not going to hold the UK in against its will.
Loss yes. Defeat no.
9
One interesting and potential outcome will be the effect on the aid given to certain countries by the EU. As the NYT pointed out some time ago, many subsidies granted to these countries are pocketed by the de facto "oligarchs" and not used as intended. This is the weakness of the EU: countries like Germany, France and the UK pay for the poorer, corrupt countries. The EU has increasingly accepted countries that should not be eligible. Subsidizing corruption has never been the purpose of the EU. If it falls apart and, yes, goes back to "the old ways of Europe", that could well improve the economy of the "strong" countries. And, the corrupt countries won’t really change that much since the richer will continue to get richer and the poorer will continue to get poorer.
6
We'll see how long Great Britain stays "rich and powerful" on their own. Scots should be allowed to leave the union, why should they pay for the landlord's mistake?
3
A tragedy, I grew up in the post-accession period and truly believed in the project, in “being European” but the truth is many of my fellow countrymen did not feel the same way, for a range of complex reasons. Now we will see if the grass really is greener on the other side, I suspect it will not be and in the end we will have to hug Europe tight, even if rejoining is a decade away at least. This is not the end though, the EU is a beautiful idea and I and millions like me will continue to believe in it
5
They should never have been allowed to stay on the £. Instead they should have been forced to convert over to the €. It would have avoided this whole problem. They either would have pulled out of all agreements back then or they would have agreed and settled in for good.
2
Surprised that this analysis overlooks that the UK was not an original member of the EU. The precursor to the EU, the European Coal and Steal Community, was formed in 1951. The UK had nothing to do with it. The European Economic Community then came along in 1957. The UK refused to join. Only after more than 20 years of deepening European political and economic coordination/integration did the UK realized they'd missed it. They finally got on board and joined in 1973, on the third expansion of the EU project. Their leaving will mean *nothing* to the EU. No more than if Texas left the US. Indeed, the EU will probably advance more speedily without the UK, just as the US would without Texas. Readers would be better served with properly historical analysis.
11
I find it very difficult to think of Brexit as anything other than a return to the old ways of Europe, which were highlighted by mass bloodletting every generation or so.
I grew up right after WW2, and remember the newsreels of the camps on the first TV, and what seemed to me, at a very young age, to be the absolute determination for "never again", even on the part of the Soviet Union, our magnificent enemy. Now, nationalism is trendy, and the slide into European war has begun. I'll be dead, but I will have seen Europe through the longest time of peace in centuries.
Did England miss wars so much?
7
It is true there are no immediate "winners" in the Brexit scam. The UK is deeply divided, likely with a pro European majority. But as the UK has a "democracy" even less representative than the US, the UK is ruled by a government elected by a minority.
The UK is largely unprepared for Brexit, while the other 27 nations have been busy preparing for years. In case the UK want to deviate significantly from European standards there will be mutual damage, but the damage will disproportionately hit UK manufacturing, farming and services, including the UK flagship financial services. It is hard to see how UK companies can compete on the world market without significantly lowering real wages for the vast majority.
In the larger strategic perspective Brexit only benefit Russia and China, certainly not the US. The EU will be forced to pool our military much more than we currently do, and the role of NATO will diminish, including dependency on US military systems and hardware.
Concerning the political balance it remain to be seen if the Scandinavian nations will lose influence, or if we can further build on the already large block of smaller nations in the EU. The UK has not exactly been a uniting player on the European scene.
Much depends on the development in the US. Will you continue to drift away from democracy and international cooperation? Or will other and more credible policies emerge?
8
Congratulations to our English cousins. This is wonderful news!
5
@Adam If it is, perhaps you could enlighten us as to some benefits of Brexit? Tangible, real benefits?
we r witnessing the most dominate county aka culture in the world 100 yrs ago turn herself into an irrelevant country by their conservative party. The same forces exist in our GOP today and if we r not careful we will suffer the same faith in much lesser time.
10
The EU has been dressed up to seem idealistic and progressive but it's really a financial (banking) entity.
3
Does Britain have to spend money on defense anymore? Who would attack them?
Cameron had some pretty reasonable requests, and the EU embarrassed him, led by Merkel. The Brits were expected to be cowed in the same way that they cowed Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
Since the referendum, all the talk was economic collapse around the corner.
6
Economic collapse may yet still be round the corner, we haven’t left yet!
2
I don't think Merkel fully understood the English (and I mean English) psyche. Cameron may well have been too diffident when he requested a change in freedom of movement of people (not labour) and changes in welfare payments obligations, but the writing was on the wall when he left empty-handed. It was like Chamberlain returning with his piece of paper, the longbowmen at Agincourt giving the French the V sign and the Peasants Revolt. They had been pushed just that one step too far - bankers bailed out and able to carry on as before, schools and hospitals deprived of revenue because of austerity, wages being cut in real terms and jobs being 'reserved' for migrants only with employers setting up job fairs in eastern European countries.
1
"But for the European Union, the loss of Britain is a significant defeat. It represents a loss of size, reach, momentum and permanence, comparable to Texas deciding to break away from the United States."
Can we get Texas to break away from the US? And take the rest of the old Confederacy with it?
15
@Tom DUDE! do you know how many of my fellow New Yorkers say the same thing about Wisconsin?!?
2020's your last chance: go blue or go home!!!
3
@Tom My thoughts exactly!!
The EU is better off without England and their half-hearted membership. Hopefully Scotland will show some pride and dis-unite the kingdom.
9
@Tom Texas is #2 state in percentage of contribution towards US GDP, behind CA and before NY.
3
Britain is Johnny come lately into EU with one leg in and one leg out by keeping its currency. No worries. The status will just reverse to what it was before Britain joined EU. It is too bad for Britain that it cannot influence EU as much as it could if it is part of it. Texas has more influence on US as part of the US than it would if it breaks away from the US.
3
Meanwhile, Brits are scrambling to secure an EU passport to allow freedom of movement.
5
Time for GREXIT! This EU dictatorship has to end. Globalism cannot and should not succeed.
3
The EU is Germany and France. It will go the way of Yugoslavia which broke in to 7 individual countries and the Soviet Union which broke into 15. The Globalists will have you believe otherwise but the world likes to hang out with others along religious, ethnic, language and cultural lines as PC incorrect as that is to admit.
5
Brexit is complex, but one thing is clear—it’s a major plus for Putin.
10
Some real forces are at work to divide people everywhere. Maybe it is our own foolisness, maybe not. United we stand, divided we fall.
3
Wouldn't it be wonderful if Texas left the Union? We could call it Texit. All the climate deniers and gun lovers could lock and load while they stew in their own juices as the sea level rises. Trump could be their leader for life and the rest of us could get on with the 21st century.
11
I’d sure like to see Governor Abbott continue to be our leader if TEXIT was to occur. It’s like heaven down here in Texas under his current leadership. I guess that explains why so many people are moving to Texas everyday.
1
@JaneDoe And most of the Deep South along with it. They won't be missed.
Save us from mad dogs and Englishmen.
3
Texas seceeding? Would you miss it? Would you miss it?
1
I was just watching a video of the media-created moron (MCM) Farage acting like the class wimp and sniggering as Britain headed back to the 19th Century. But what was staggering was the level of comment below the line: 'We speak English, so bad luck.' Really, these people think Disraeli is still Prime Minister, I guess. Well, Brexit split the Labour vote, which is what it was all about. Meanwhile, the Commodity broking Farage 'speaks for the common people' - not. Thank God I left the place for good ten years ago. I now live in Turkey, where the government is more progressive than the UK's and the population, evidently, better educated.
2
@Richard Crawford what?? Erdogan?
4
I would not miss Texas much. Our textbooks would probably improve.
7
I would feel bad if Texas left the USA but if the rest of the Confederate states left I would be ecstatic.
9
@Pecos Bill
Of course, many of us feel the same way about NJ.
Brexit is Britain’s first step in becoming the 51st state admitted to United States.
Who else is left? China? Russia?
2
I would like Texas to leave. Texit in 2020.
7
Have you seen the show Occupied on Netflix? It might become real in the near future. scary.
3
Exactly what Brussels deserves for overreaching on immigration mandates and disrespecting Britain’s sovereignty.
7
The English created the Industrial Revolution so we know that they are capable of great things. Maybe a little adversity will be beneficial for them and they will re-discover their creativity and drive which seems to have gone missing since WWII?
5
As with Texas, the answer is good riddance. Britain only jumped on the European train to pull the emergency break.
It was Churchill, who floated the idea of the EU, but thought of Britain as a world power that would not have to join the club. When the British policy elites realized that the UK was just another European country, and that they had to join to fend off economic collapse, a large segment of the English (as opposed to the Scottish) was deeply offended. And as a reluctant member, Britain did more to undermine the European idea from within than it could have done from without.
Everything Britain did was to damage European unity, for instance by insisting on Eastern expansion, brining up Turkey as an EU candidate, and, of course, free movement of people. Of course, there were some economic benefits to this, but the main goal was to tie the EU to deeply unpopular policies, while serving Britain's economic interests.
This calculus failed spectacularly. The British policy elites lost EU membership, because it enraged the English with the policies it pushed. Now, Britain either has to accept European rules without any say over them, or commit economic suicide. Anyone who remembers England in the 1970s knows what I am talking about.
And no, Johnson won't do a Trumpist deal. Just look at his Huawei decision. The writing is already on the wall. Britain will get a Norway-style deal: pay membership fees, shut up and put up.
10
This was not a victory for the British people, this was a victory for Vladimir Putin. The E.U. Is a major problem for Putin’s long term goal of breaking the West. In pursuit of this goal, Putin set his Russian trolls and bots into U.K. social media so demonstrably one third of opinions came from outside the U.K. Second, Nigel Farange was seen on RT, the Russian TV network multiple times, extolling Putin’s propaganda that leaving the E.U. was the U.K.’s destiny.
Putin's forces went to work and nearly influenced Scotland to vote for leaving the U.K. The same was true for Putin’s support of France’s Marine LePen. We know his greatest success was in the U.S.
25
@B.L.
This Putin guy...he like the world leader? Sounds pretty smart?
@wallace Nah - it is the Anglo-Americans that are pretty daft and easily conned.
1
Good Riddance. The rest of Europe can't wait to rid itself of an ever complaining member who is longing for its previous imperial self. Let the island remain just that, isolated and eating fish and chips. That is the reason for a unanimous vote in the European Parliament to rid it of the UK.
9
Wish Texas would leave, and as a collective it’s arrogant enough to.
5
Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it (George Santayana).
It was a wise man (Helmut Kohl) who often said that that what is at stake over European union is nothing less than "a question of war and peace in Europe."
L'union fait la force.
9
The problem with movements which are driven by populist nationalism is that there is little if any post Brexit planning. I will eagerly await the “Unicorn” trade agreement to come stampeding in. But when it doesn’t and conditions deteriorate you can bet it will be the “Evil EU’s” fault. It is now a race between the oldsters dying off and England(?) rejoining the EU or total economic/military separation, which of course be “their” fault.
Thus the question, if not the EU, then what?
4
I watch sadly from afar as Brexit is about to become a reality. It will indeed hurt both Britain and remaining EU, but the balance of harm will weigh far more heavily on the Brits. The EU will have to renegotiate only its trade relationship with the UK. The UK will have to remake multiple separate deals; and its own unity is now threatened by forces in Scotland and Northern Ireland reacting against the consequences of Brexit. Little England fondly imagines that trade deals with the EU and countries like China, Japan, India and the US will by some miracle all end up more advantageous to itself than its previous arrangements. Good luck with that, especially in the case of the US.
The Brexit movement gathered steam thanks largely to English nostalgia for its imperial past (in which Scots played a disproportionate part) and its glorious WW II defeat of the Nazis (conveniently forgetting the roles of the US and USSR). To put it bluntly, Brexit is the result of my former country's arrogance. Sooner or later - and probably sooner - it will wake up to understand that it had nothing to be arrogant about.
21:10 EST, 1/29
18
@mancuroc Churchill didn't even want to invade western Europe. It was done on Eisenhower's insistence.
If only Texas would break away from the US.
And Florida.
And Louisiana.
Anywhere Red.
8
The comparison to TX is strange and weak!
10
Erlanger wrote an excellent piece
Brexit will make the dissolution of the "United Kingdom" nigh inevitable. That will be its legacy.
11
I wish Britain well. The country was being torn apart with anti-Brexiteers refusing to accept the 2016 vote. Sound familiar, USA?
7
What sounds familiar to me is that a con man and liar, Boris Johnson, sold a country a bill of goods that they will ultimately end up regretting.
9
Congratulations Britain! And to the globalists; Just give Italy and the other potential 'exiters' some time.
6
What a self-inflicted wound for all concerned.
With leaders like Trump and Boris Johnson, who needs enemies.
16
The UK now needs a trade deal with the EU which is economically 10 times the size. It reminds me of the Nafta agreement between Canada and the US. No matter what, it is far more important for the small country (Canada) to get access to the big market (US) and we know who has to compromise. Britain will now find out how it is to be the little guy - as the saying goes in Canada, when you get in bed with an elephant you better sleep lightly.
9
Dear Britain
A message from the EU to the UK, Little England don't let the door hit you , "You Know Where'.
There is still issues like the border in Northern Ireland , and then there is Scotland, the residents of which voted a resounding Remain, then there is London and its surrounding counties also voting a resounding Remain.
In terms of the EU British have been more resistors than participants for many years now they could not give up their precious pound for the Euro among other things. Its not surprising aside from the Russian interference that a small majority voted to leave.
As far as Trumps Big Trade Deal well that will be a wait and see, Trump foisting American style Heath Care Insurance on the British will most definitely be a deal breaker for him , so say Tally Ho to the NHS. Get used to the idea of paying hundreds if not thousands of your pounds monthly for health coverage.
Its not like The Conservatives ever supported the NHS, and Boris Johnson well next to Trump, he is the biggest liar on the world stage . He will sell out the NHS in a minute.
So buckle up Buttercups there is a rough road ahead.
21
Waiting to see if the “troubles” return.
1
@Alec Trump is not Emperor Xi. He will go away, even if it takes another six years. The Democrats are pushing for a single-payer system. By the way, at least in the U.S. when you reach 65, you get a lavish health care system--with certain supplements, I pay a monthly premium of $300, but with that I can go straight to any specialist or hospital I want, without waiting, with no co-pays and no deductibles. Yes, that includes ultra-long inpatient stays at the best hospitals, if required.
So the one thing the UK had got going for it in these negotiations is it’s military importance. And the EU will likely take that into account. But what kind of economy will there be to back that military power up? And what will it be like to live in a country that will be so dependent on this one “sector”? Let’s just hope that Brexit facilitates more EU integration so that, maybe someday there will be something worthwhile to join.
1
Humanity's future is unity. All our main problems such as climate change, overpopulation, food supplies, etc. can only be solved together. The UK leaving the EU is a retrograde, a step backwards that will cost them dearly. I lived in London in the late 70s. If I recall correctly, the UK economy was nothing before Thatcher pushed the UK into the then ECM. Leaving the EU will terminate the UK and GB. The Scots will leave. NI will get its independence. The rump England and Wales will be like Montreal, nice to visit, excellent restaurants and museums and that will be it.
15
It is possible that Britain will not remain stationary in this discussion of realignment. Yes, an American trade agreement is desired. However, if you watch events closely, conceivably Britain will attempt to reassert closer economic contact with its former colonial interests. And if that occurs, a new dynamism will very likely develop on the British Isles.
2
Britain will turn to Africa for trade
@Mark Africa for raw material, however, my guess, India. Another Asian nation that is economically rising, and wants to gain entry into Europe. The India-China rivalry will be a defining 21st Century story.
1
Sure, there will be some hick ups in the beginning. But long term the EU will be fine. And Britain will have to figure out what their new position in the world really is. I suspect they overestimated their power and status. Who do you think has more bargaining power? A bloc of many, to include France and Germany, or Britain? I know who I would back.
7
I see it as an American size loss for Great Britain!
5
I wonder if it would be feasible for Europe to now make a point to offer fast-track membership to Scotland or Northern Ireland if they desired that.
2
Unfortunately that would be unwise. Those two places are hardly so important as for the EU to start encouraging secessionist movements elsewhere.
3
If the same template than when Catalonia tried to secede is used, the answer is “no”. Each new applicant will have to follow the full path to membership. EU respect its members rights and doesn’t want to stir secessionist movements.
2
You're asking the wrong question, which is "How will Britain benefit from giving up its EU membership?" - the UK's losses - economic and otherwise - will soon far outweigh the gains, while the loss of the UK hardly leaves the EU in a precarious position, as virtually all of its members will remain.
13
I suspect Brexit will be like net neutrality - a magnet for prophets of doom who move on to the next life or death issue when this one turns out not to have been worthy of their doomsday predictions.
7
Balfour’s notion that this may well result in an EU shift towards Russia is pure silliness.
5
@Laura Cisneros The shift shall be mutual. The EU needs to coopt Russia, as well as Ukraine to be able to compete against China and the USA.
Ukraine within EU would be an agricultural powerhouse. Russia will provide raw materials and military strength. Brexit may speed up such development.
Months ago, I would have agreed with you but meanwhile (a few months ago) Macron made some arguments explaining how this could happen. That you agree with him or not, his points were valid.
2
In 1986 I saw a chart in Le Nouvel Observateur showing which was the SECOND most telephoned country for each of the 7 member states, the first being their own. Not surprisingly these followed mostly linguistic paths - Belgium-Netherlands, France-Switzerland, Germany-Austria. The U.K. stood out to me since it was the only country for whom the most calls were to a different continent.
You guessed it.
In the same way Laura Bush and Sherie Blair within a day of one another commented on the Iraqis “ripping out fingernails” - London and Washington continue their “special relationship” by this time turning propaganda on their own people.
In a world that:
A) desperately needs global collaboration to solve global problems and
B) has the means to allow over half of the 7 billion people to communicate online
what a tragedy for the human race to have the feeble minds of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson (with a little help from the likes of Facebook, Rebekah Mercer, and Cambridge Analytica) leading the way with childish name calling, simplistic fear-mongering, unhinged racism and towering cynicism!
When we created a Supra-national Entity after the wars we carefully made sure to ignore our most fundamental Republican beliefs and gave ourselves veto powers forever assuring the world that along with China, Russia, France and Great Britain we would always be a little more equal than everyone else.
It takes courage, respect and patience to see all humans as peers.
3
Brits are going to suffer the declining living standards and loss of business after Brexit, much more than Europe, and UK is going to fade into the sunset.
That is for one reason: aging population.
Without the import of many young Europeans from Europe, UK will soon have difficulties to fill many essential jobs (like nurses, doctors, etc.) required to run the country, and loss of tax payers, consumers, and child bearing families.
Sad, but self inflected decline...
16
Except that Texas is only in the US because the US government illegally annexed it and provoked a war with the Mexicans when Mexico refused to sell them it and California and New Mexico despite President Polk's offer. England has been at war with individual European nations, but the EU never annexed the UK! The UK decided to join and now has decided to leave the EU. It's too bad they are doing this, it won't go well for them, but it's their decision to take the plunge.
6
A third of the United States is part of the country because we picked wars with Mexico and Spain. Another third is because we picked a war with England. Another third is because we picked wars with the native Americans.
What’s your point? The Texas is special? Because it ain’t.
5
@BrainThink
Gee, you forgot the Louisiana Purchase from France and the purchase of Alaska from Russia.
Both acquisitions came our way because those European nations were broke from fighting wars.
4
Let's see what history tells us in 10 years. The UK - if there is one, will probably be just England - will be poorer in all likelihood. Already, London has lost financial services companies. The UK passport will soon be less useful, too. Leaving the eu will do nothing to bring back jobs to places like Newcastle, Norwich, Leeds, etc. Brexit is probably the biggest own goal in British history. And the UK looks pretty bad for it considering the racist oligarch lot in charge now.
19
It is ironic that some people see Brexit as somehow increasing the “freedom” of UK citizens. Prior to Brexit, all UK citizens could live and work and retire anywhere in Europe. Post-Brexit, those citizens will all have to return to the UK. I doubt that those who are forced to return will feel very free.
17
The main reason for the EU is not to have weight on the world stage but to create a single internal market for trade. The loss of the UK is mostly a loss for the UK, not the EU. Trade will continue to grow between other member states, with or without the UK, or rather England and Wales.
7
Brexit is sort of a super nova: they first blow up the size disproportionally, then leave with a very big flash and ultimately the light slowly diminishes until it only glows into oblivion.
11
Your catastrophism is misplaced and your overall projection and analysis, wrong. In the short term obviously everybody loses, business will be lost. But in the political side of things, the UK was a liability in the EU, has been for a very long time, was a drag for further integration and the challenges you name, for the most part, are the kind that should be addressed with further integration and cooperation. Your view that France and Germany will be at their throats because the UK wont be there to mediate is rather quaint, to say the least, but mostly just nonsense. The UK already IS the US's poodle, which was a major source of friction in the UE (Iraq War rings a bell?). Good luck with the special relationship, 'sans-the-eu-option', because for the foreseeable future, in the US, madness will part of the menu. UK was a major contributor, but also a beneficiary, not nearly a loss as you describe it. The UK was in the UE not as a member of the family, but as someone looking after its narrow interests, that was Thatcher's poisoned legacy. For conservatives, and some hardcore lefties, the UE was a favourite punching bag. In the medium and longer term, Brexit is a net win for the EU: we got rid of a fake-partner, (that will serve as a cautionary tale to other dummies within the EU) and when the dust settles you'll see that much business has fallen on this side, already has. The catastrophe your describe, if any, will play out in the other side.
14
@jackson Ok, I see your “people in Brussels have not been elected” angle, so pointing to a democracy deficit. But these people have been chosen (or elected depending on their position) by people who have been elected.
Now let’s compare this with your Electoral college, where the value of the vote of a Democrat is less than 1 (perhaps something to fix, like at the time when a black vote was 3/5 of a white one).
Thank you for letting me pick up on your comment.
5
@Jackson This is the meme that the Brexiteers have been pushing forever. NOBODY is told what to do by Brussels. Yes, there is a commission that drafts proposals--how else could a conferderation get anything drafted when it has no central government? But then, every proposal has to be approved by the European goverment and then UNANIMOUSLY by the heads of state. As I said, the "dictatorship of Brussels" is a myth perpetuated by those who do not believe in the idea of a European union, which the Brits obviously don't--after all, they have never been subjected to the endless wars the rest of Europe has.
In short, I'm also much in favor of the Brits leaving--a chain gets stronger when its weakest link is eliminated (not fair to the Brits, I agree, but that's the gist).
5
@UFlemm OOPS--I meant to say "has to be approved by the European PARLIAMENT"!!!
1
Britain is neither rich nor powerful. Only its few super-wealthy capitalists and big corporations are.
14
With England thumbing its nose at the elites, we can see the reaction from urbanites used to government in all facets of their live.
"Uk should wither" blah blah.
6
Cut them off. A bunch of other countries minus one will be fine. As an American, I'd say the same about Texas, should it ever secede. Cut them off, fully and completely. Build a fence even. What does it matter? If people won't learn, teach them a lesson. Show people how bad things are when you insulate yourself from the rest of the world. It's the only way people ever figure out anything. Just ask the laughable citizenry that make up this country. The UK got its Donald Trump in Boris Johnson. Let's see them suffer for it, and maybe they'll finally be able to figure it out.
5
The concept of the EU appeals mostly to leftwing statists who see no reason not to subordinate individual liberty to the desires of unelected technocrats and bureaucrats.
‘Stay in your place. We know what’s best. Obey!’
The real question is who will be the next to go?
7
EU=US-Financial unity
@EGD
"the desires of unelected technocrats and bureaucrats"
We elected our Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The Council of Europe consists of the leaders of each Member State. Member States have a veto in all matters not solely within EU competence.
There is a LOT of misinformation/ignorance floating around about the EU.
9
And it would be great if that last term changed. The UK was an obstacle for fiscal union. Not the only one, but one of them.
1
Bonjour! A Texas size defeat?? Wow. Finally the European Union can be rid of Britain as they often espoused a free market capitalist approach that , honestly, most of the world doesn´t subscribe to outside of Washington and London. The European Union dwarfs Britain just like the USA dwarfs Texas, right? I sincerely believe that the EU will flourish more sans Britain and the backdoor way that Washington meddled within the EU through London. Another thing that this evokes in my thinking is that once the dust settles and Britain sees just where it really is at....... on the outside of one of the largest monetary unions on the planet, it is possible that Scotland may want in the EU and out of Britain. We will see how this all shakes out within the next 10 years. However, as an American, I am much more worried about the state of the USA´s political fragility and the systemic problems facing this country.
24
Brexit was in fact just another version of Trumpism that emerged in Great Britain as rightwing nationalism took power in the United States. I don't quite understand what Britain gains from separating from the European Union other than accelerating its comparative decline in the international system. The British are world powers in finance and they have a first class university system comparable to the top universities in the United States. But Brexit weakens finance as it no longer is seamlessly integrated into the EU. The UK is now 2 percent of the world's nominal economic output and that share will decline every year far into the future. How will Britain stand as a strategic and economic power as the rest of the world grows and expands eclipsing an independent Britain? Finally, will the other shoe drop? Will Scotland decide to leave the United Kingdom? That will reduce a once global empire to an area around the size of Pennsylvania.
13
As I grew up in the US Midwest, I took it as given that our Civil War was worth the cost in lives and political division. As a college freshman one of my dorm-friends was an upperclassman majoring in Political Science. When he once remarked that perhaps we would have been better off had we let the South secede, I was dumbfounded. Now, many years later, I wonder if he was right. Our Deep South still feels, 150 years after the war, like a hostile sub federation within the US federation.
In a sense, perhaps the UK should never have been allowed to join the EU as an explicit confederation of states. This has always made the UK feel special compared to the other 27 EU countries.
I am deeply saddened by the UK’s choice. I think there will be at least two generations of disappointments and bitterness before England and Wales are ready to rejoin.
8
You sound like y’all never been down South.
There would never been a USA except for the Revolutionary War battles fought and won down South, their defeats made the redcoats report in dispatches to London “We cannot pacify this country “.
1
Britain was kept out of Europe by De Gaul, who knew that the UK was in practice a bridgehead for US corporations (into the postwar Continent).
Of course, UK (soon to be known as the Kingdom of England) now becomes a colony of the US, instead of a bridgehead. Good luck to all!
9
Brexit is already a disaster for the UK. Leaving the EU weakens the UK on the world stage as, on its own, it’s a third-rate power. And its reputation as a model worth emulating is beyond repair.
A free trade deal with the US is years in the offing. Furthermore, there is no way Congress, even a Republican one, will approve a pact unless the UK guarantees an open border in Ireland. We’ll see then what Farange and the animals who support him prefer. The question answers itself.
We can only hope that Scotland leaves the UK and joins the EU. That Northern Ireland is reunified with Ireland. That the lack of European and other “foreigners” in what’s left in the UK bring it to its knees. I hate to be so un-Christian, but it will be just desserts for the regressive, revanchist, narrow-minded and short-sighted choices made by Britain’s voters and its incompetent ruling “elite”. That’s you Boris.
10
Why should we hope for that dystopian future?! The EU is the new Soviet Union where unelected bureaucrats dictate to the population. Britain is smart for leaving, hopefully this is the beginning of the end.
7
The Brits are demonstrating they aren't anyone's poodles.
10
That’s a non-sensical comments. Countries are all equal in the EU, so if you were correct, it would mean that all its members are equally poodle-like.
Perhaps what you are describing is called democracy.
7
The “Brits” still refuse to believe that Putin had anything to do with the brexit vote. The class system of the English was ripe to turn the “Toffs” against the “Skivs” They despise each other so much now , that they refuse to associate or even be in the same space as those who voted against their bias.
Putin laughs, Pres Reagan taught him, arms race is impossible, he discovers Social media is free and far more effective
8
Would it be bad if Texas left the US?
4
@Dr if
Yes.
3
@Jackson I thought CA had already left.
2
'Big Brussels is infallible and all-powerful. Every success, every achievement, every victory, every scientific discovery, all knowledge, all wisdom, all happiness, all virtue, are held to issue directly from its leadership and inspiration.'
3
Three cheers for the anglosphere and our mom!
5
Good luck. A brave, bold decision to leave the EU. I hope it pays off! I certainly don't blame you for leaving. Best of luck to Britain.
16
What do you know about it? The supposed weight of the EU?
Brilliant play by Putin and the global oligarchic Right.
26
Brexit was a mistake. It's going to play itself out and the proBrexit group will not admit it even as the mistake gets bigger and bigger.
8
They should let the queen handle it. She took care of her DIL in less than a week. The UK will be WAY better off out of the EU. Now if we could get rid of the UN & NATO. They don’t do their jobs anymore, just peddle leftist policies. And they are just another place for politicians kids to get rich.
4
Amazed how many comment writers seem to have no clue what Brexit was and is about.
None of them seem to know despite many news reports that Russia has been involved from day one to get the UK separated from Europe in the same way that Russia was involved in the American 2016 election to get a authoritarian individual elected as Presidential.
The more dictator types are in charge, the more powerful Russia will become.
British and American naivety is stunning and self destructive that only a world disaster can wake up the voters who have been following like blind sheep a leader, whose only goal has been from day one to destroy democracy.
As in Russia, soon there will be no work for many Americans and Brits left, as both governments have sold their own manufacturing industry to any country that doesn’t mind to pay slave salaries to their workers. Both countries have fully ignored their infra structure, their development, their workers health and welfare.
Both leaders are full of lies and empty meaningless promises and fake gestures, copies of Russia’s leader, another country running on empty.
Blind people following the blind.
12
This article sounds more like wishful thinking on the part of Mr. Erlanger and the “remainers”. Just as economic devastation was predicted when Trump was elected economic devastation was predicted were Brexit to occur, didn’t happen. For a more balanced narrative I would suggest reading the excellent article in last weekends F.T. by a Londoner. He accurately explains the cost to the middle class Brits after joining the E.U. Yes as he described it was terrific for the professional classes, in particular the banking set who were able to get cheap household help from former Eastern bloc countries and developers able to hire cheap foreign labor but just as in America it was the working class that got the shaft, and NHS devastated. The E.U. benefited Germany primarily and hurt Southern European countries especially Greece, who it should be noted were helped along to the poor house by who else but our very own Lloyd Blankfein and Gary Cohen, yes Trumps ex economic guru when they were heading a portion of Goldman Sachs picking the pockets of Europe. Mr. Erlanger suggests that Brexit put a halt to populism, I would suggest the populists are just getting warmed up or are the Uber wealthy of Europe buying bolt holes abroad for reasons other than their future safety. There has been one article after the other on the positive aspects of Brexit, just not for bankers and London housing prices, who knows real Brits may be able to buy in their own country again one day.
11
@Ted That sounds like a lot of Trumper talking points.
In fact, there were tens, even hundreds of thousands of English middle-class, both living and working on the continent as full-fledged citizens. They will be looking for home and condo-buyers , and packing their bags in a few months for the return to London Rain.
12
Another false Putin like promise, soon the Brits will be able to buy their own products again.
They must be ghost products as British manufacturing as in America are disappearing on a massive scale.
Have you ever driven through our country recently or through England and Scotland?
If you haven’t, you have no right to make these false statement and promises, you just talk like another false prophet.
4
@Tara Yes and they maybe able to afford a London house again if some of the banking class returns to the Continent. BTW that London rain is nothing compared to the long grey days of Paris nor the interminable Winters’s of Northern Europe, who for the most part escaped the blitzkrieg of Western bankers and strangely enough those socialist types in Finland and Norway are the happiest citizens of our world. BTW Tara I have many English friends living in Southern Europe and I would not consider many of them working class, and more than a few of them would love to live in England again and with London luxury housing prices in a free fall ( just as New York City) they may be able to return to London, those charming little French and Spanish villages really aren’t so charming anymore anyway, not after being overwhelmed with foreign buyers, just ask the native folks that live there, unless they are realtors they probably aren’t any more thrilled with globalization than most of us not directly lining our pockets with the remunerative benefits for a few. Sorry Europe and Britain were far better off before the formation of the E.U. and the use of a common currency, not to mention as a tourist why bother these days, you’ll see the same Starbucks in France as in Spain and the same hordes of Chinese tourists. Nope Europeans for the most part would be better off all leaving the E.U., if we would quit starting wars they would be even better off so as not to be faced with a refugee problem.
2
This whole brexit movement can be attributed to one person Angela Merkel and her decision to allow a million migrants into Germany who thanks to no borders could freely move within the EU. That alone is the only reason this passed
74
not true. according to German law refugees are not permitted to leave Germany or even the respective city they ve been allocated after claming asylum. Many refugees fleed without any papers and can only identify via temporary asylum passports. So tell me now, how do you think these people “travel” to UK? A county with stricter entry requirements than the US. Get your facts straight.
83
Actually, the real reason is England not being able to come to terms with being one country amongst other - European - countries. English logic is either to rule or to be ruled. The idea of working together and compromise is completely missing in English politics. It is a real shame that England is dragging Scotland into the abyss.
97
@EAH That threat is way overblown and in any case the UK is not a signatory to the Schengen agreement. You have to show your passport to get into the UK even if you are from the EU. The threat of millions of refugees crossing into the UK never materialised. Instead, UK citizen became afraid of Polish people settling in and taking their job. This, too, is way overblown. Instead, when the UK announced Brexit, EU doctors and nurses started to leave causing staff shortages in hospitals.
62
The European Union certainly does not need the UK.
The original EU concept was as a confederation of economically like minded peoples. That included France, Germany, the Benelux Countries and Scandinavia. Later, at the insistence of French financiers, the Mediterranean countries were included.
But England and its tagalong folk groups (Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland) were always an EU problem. The English insisted on their own currency, and have always had a hard time with the racial impurities that accompany EU freedom of movement and acceptance of globalization.
The UK is going to have a much harder time adjusting to being a mere island nation again, I lived in the Thames Valley for 4 years, and can't think of anything I bought in Britain that was manufactured there, other than gin and medications. Good people, but hopelessly stuck in their desire for "Empire" to return again. The UK's sun is set, particularly as the EU disperses what was its financial hub (London) to Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin.
The EU is vibrant, and for the future generations. It will do much better without old England. In a year, I expect the EU will welcome Scotland as a member country into its ranks.
524
@Joe Miksis
Brexit was a as much a vote against residents of the Thames valley who consumed nothing from Britain as it was against Europe itself.
29
@Joe Miksis
"England and its tagalong folk groups (Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland)"
I don't think the Scots, Welsh and N Irish look at themselves in this way. A bit of an insult, really.
83
Joe Miksis, it is hard to say what will happen with Scotland. But it is not hard to say that nothing is going to happen in the next year. If it ever happens that Scotland joins the European Union (and I doubt that it will), that event will be years in the future.
7
Wrong. For Europe, Brexit will be a Relief. But for England, Brexit will be the Major Defeat of the Idea of the United Kingdom. Good B-riddance.
18
And then reality hits the UK
It falls apart and the EU laughs
8
Maybe, the British people think of it as their victory.
Always the negative, with the NY Times.
12
The real losers are the average blokes that are going to get clobbered by those right wing fanatics like Boris. They had their hands tied by EU laws that protect workers. No more. They’ll treat them like American workers.
12
All these comments make me think of that great Marxist quote (Groucho): "I wouldn't want to belong to a club that would have me as a member."
6
For all the Americans so envious of the beauty of EU, and bashing the UK for leaving the EU, why don't you try emigrate there, in that Eldorado?
As is, a lot of people from that Eldorado come and stay here. Same holds for UK, they also like to come over.
And all of them like to bash USA ...
6
Well, I have met Americans in Paris who said they would want for nothing to move back to the US under the current situation, after I left the US after 13 years (and got the citizenship) as I couldn’t stand its toxic environment any longer.
Perhaps you should try it, you may even like it.
2
Perfidious Albion.
4
Astonishing by the boorish acts of trashing the EP with bottles and flags. Shame on you Farage for thuggish holiganism. I'm grateful that President Mareid of Ireland kept things from getting out hand. Somehow, I wondered what the Queen thought about her subjects' lack of civility. Do we want to trade with these people? Really!
3
Total nonsense. It’s a complete marginalization of the UK that may well lead to its breakup. Erlanger is clueless. Suggest that readers read the Financial Times for intelligent reporting on the matter.
8
Merkel's decision to allow a million young Muslim men into Germany remains the single most destabilizing act recent decades.
The oh-so-goody-two-shoes overthrow of Qaddahfi was another brilliant stroke-that one by USA, FRA and UK.
These massive migrant flows are changing the world and calling forth serious resistance. Brexit is one example. Trump is another.
I hate Trump and will vote against him for sure but the Immigration issue is not going to dissapear.
6
I kinda like the thought of Texas leaving! I guess it would have to be "Texit". Sure would change the political landscape of the US...
4
@Chuck Berger
Or maybe smug Democrats and ‘progressives’ should drop the sneering, hatred, and condescension and try to find common ground with people who don’t share the same views as them.
4
Interesting analysis, but perhaps the author doesn’t quite grasp how many people in the US would love it if Texas DID secede from the country!!!
8
"Italexit" sounds horrible. Better names for this bad idea are "Exitalia" and "Divorzio all'inglese."
1
Why does the author assume that it is a defeat for the EU? It looks to me like a self-own on the part of Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, and the rest of the Brexit faction. England (and it will just England once the Irish and the Scots have voted to stay in the EU) hereby become a less attractive place to live and do business, less attractive for trade, etc. The English people will be poorer, sicker, and less free. This looks like a loss for England and a win for continental Europe as they absorb the trade, financial services, highly skilled immigrants, etc. that will no longer be going to England.
7
I think EU is better off with Britain. Britain belongs to United States due to language and cultural similarities. I hope someday we integrate Britain as 51st state.
2
The real winner of course is Vladimir Putin. With the weakening of all Europe he believes he strengthens Russia. In reality he doesn’t strengthen anything but it plays well politically for his plan to be president for life.
10
Texas-Size defeat for the E. U.?
I think that England will suffer more from Brexit than will the E. U.
Ten years from now the English will look back and see that Brexit was a terrible mistake.
Best wishes.
6
Mr Erlanger is mistaken if he blames the EU for the fact that one of its member states has committed political and economic suicide. The UK made this decision against the wishes of all members of the EU and must accept sole responsibility for its consequences. The truly unfortunate thing is that the UK made their decision on the basis of ignorance and fraud. Leavers mistakenly believed that their country could be made great again and they were encouraged in this by a leave campaign which was based on lies and fraud. An interesting point is that immigration was a huge issue in the referendum but has since largely disappeared as an issue of public concern. The leave campaign have now taken over the government of the UK but have betrayed their allies in Northern Ireland by splitting off Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, and they have alienated the people of Scotland who are likely to vote for independence in the next number of years.
6
“[T]he loss of Britain...represents a loss of size, reach, momentum and permanence, comparable to Texas deciding to break away from the United States.”
The fortuitous loss of the rebel states after Lincoln’s election allowed the United States Congress and the President of the United States to finally proceed with the Transcontinental Railroad, the Homestead Act, Land Grant Colleges, and the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments to the Constitution.
It may therefore be said that the loss of not only Texas, but also Virginia, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee, produced a burst of progressive governance not repeated until the New Deal.
Maybe the European Union can do more, not less, after they have cut out the English cancer.
5
The surrender of all national priorities to the whims of those disinterested or even in conflict with the interests of the citizens of any member of the EU was a mistake. Mandated policies and taxation that are detrimental to the goals of voters are still consistently being demanded by bureaucrats in Brussels for the benefit of the power of the bureaucrats over the people of European countries.
Britain is better off out of the EU.
7
The nice part about the brexit is that the people who wanted it will always think they are better off even when they are not. Just like Trump voters they don't live in the real world. So they will be happy to be in decline just as middle america is.
I am glad they finally got around to it. The end of the evil British empire is a good thing.
8
We learned in the 1920-30's that disunion, brings disharmony, brings confrontation, brings war. Russia foments insurrection in its former states. Iran and a variety of disenfranchised groups have ripped the Mideast apart with America's blessing and instigation. China is developing African and South American nations. North Korea is, well, North Korea. The beacon of hope for the world, America, is busy isolating itself and guarding its borders from who knows what. Britain follows suite. I think bad things will happen sooner than we think. Too many of the agreements that held our world together past World War Two are collapsing too quickly. I think our governments are not up to the task of making good decisions for the future of the world. For Gods sake, in America they can't even admit to climate change, or focus on a sensible, humanitarian immigration policy. Nothing good is coming.
4
"It represents a loss of size, reach, momentum and permanence, comparable to Texas deciding to break away from the United States."
Explain to me, please, why Texas deciding to break away from the United States would be a bad thing?
4
Farewell, UK.
If you should ever change your mind, we will gladly welcome you back to our European family.
In the long run, nothing can separate what belongs together.
1
A defeat for the European Union, but a major victory for Vladimir Putin. What is happening in England seems to be an ominous sign for what may just come to the United States. The actors in Parliament seem to be mirror images of our Republican-led Senate, perhaps just not as corrupt and amoral. Boris Johnson and Donald Trump with their phobias against globalization and for nationalism - or rather, nativism - are brothers in not only looks and demeanor but also in character, but again the former seems to not be so entrenched in a viper's pit as the latter. Meanwhile Putin must be dancing the Barynya thinking of his next puppet and conquest. You guessed it, "home sweet home." Think about it: Our waning democracy may not even be allowed to have witnesses in a trial. How's that for autocratic rule.
3
Does Texas have its own currency , the Texas Pound ?
Britain from day one, was trouble. From the start it was torn internally by the class conflict between those who identify themselves as being British (pro EU) and those who identify themselves as being English (anti EU) resulting in Zig Zag policy vs the EU.
The winner is Macron who hopes for Paris to take over from London as the EU financial capital.
As for those Brits, that want to stay in the EU there is a simple method: Apply for a second citizenship , getting a passport from a EU country
The French evening news, yesterday,
"Brexit: the British who become German
As Brexit approaches, many Britons have applied for and obtained their German nationality which will allow them to keep a European passport.
Most of those interviewed saw themselves as European, rather than British or English
Remeniscent of the transition in the US. Before 1850, Americans identified themselves as e.g. Virginians first, Americans second. After about 1870 it switched
Except maybe for Texas. I suspect many her citizens consider them selves Texan's first, and Americans second
It is very interesting to listen to those interviewed and thus should you understand French watch
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe/la-grande-bretagne-et-l-ue/brexit-ces-britanniques-qui-deviennent-allemands_3803531.html
1
Dear NYT - this article was poorly written and deserved to be in the Opinion section. Using interviews with American figures to justify the narrative that the EU will be severly minored with the exclusion of Britain is an overstatement at best.
As many commentators have noted, the UK was never a fair-playing, policy & vision aligned member. It was a capricious, yet influential scheemer.
While we regret the decision for the UK to leave and are prepared for a recession-like scenario, it has provided a needed reflection for the EU. The system is far from perfect, yet there are opportunities.
As can be noted with Switzerland, there can be good conditions to be out of the Union, but easy to be bullied. Also, one must be sure that its own system is better. For the UK, deregularization seems the way, in Switzerland, it's a bit of the opposite - higher standards than EU (not on all, but quite some topics).
Yours,
A capricious reader
5
Excellent points—I was shocked it wasn’t in the Op-Ed section.
4
Africans are cheering the coming demise of the protectionist EU. While I have no sympathy with the jingoist and racist Brexiteers, the vile impact of EU tariffs, subsidies, dumping and protectionism on African economies has been devastating. EU policies have driven mass migration as millions of Africans are forced to flee the economic catastrophe caused by the EU above all others. It is nothing more than a mafia trade block under German domination, created to fight US and Japanese capitalists, not the union of humanity. Too many people are taken in with its fig-leaf of alleged unity. While it will inevitably collapse due to the competing interests of the rival gangs of capitalists that run each of its member countries, how much more misery will it inflict. We do need unity, of all working people of the world, not rival trade blocks.
2
Excellent. Congratulations to Great Britain on getting their sovereignty back.
Trump should announce a bi-lateral trade deal with Great Britain.
With, Brexit, a 2nd Trump term is all but assured at this time.
7
Yes Britain was an Important organ of the EU. But the EU will stay a well functioning well and growing body.
On the other hand: how well does an organ survive without a body?
1
This is a huge loss for the UK. Goodbye Northern Ireland. Then goodbye Scotland. I hope the Little Englanders are proud of themselves.
2
My wife is English and her family still lives there. Her brother-in-law is the typical Leave voter. He lives in South London. He hates immigrants and wants to make sure you know it. He says openly racist things all the time especially about Asians. I saw him a year or two ago and he kept wanting to talk about how great Trump was the whole time. That kind of ignorance isn’t limited to the USA. I wouldn’t tolerate it from anyone but family.
8
I showed this to my wife thinking she would approve...my mistake. Too personal.
2
Britons will regret this for a long time.
7
Worst mistake in the history of Great Britain.
6
“But it also destabilizes a lot of the countries, like the Dutch and the Nordics, on issues like the free market, anti-Russia policy and trans-Atlanticism,” Mr. Leonard added. “And it will further the imbalance between the eurozone and non-eurozone countries, leaving those like Poland, Sweden and Denmark more exposed.’’
Central European countries, Turkey and countries hoping to join the bloc may also feel Britain’s absence.”
Nothing, absolutely nothing in these paragraphs makes any sense to me in the context of Brexit. The fact that Turkey and its murderous dictator Erdogan would count on Great Britain for access to the E.U. had me laughing out loud.
Thankfully, the comments are of a much better analytical quality than the article by Mr. Erlanger, which appears to have been ghostwritten by Nigel Farage, perhaps?
7
A sad day for Europe!
A sad day for Peace!
Putin and Trump won, sadly.
5
Everyone seems to think the European Union is innocent but essentially it was designed to benefit the big players. Why would European Union be so great? Not because we are all morally minded people trying to help the poorer countries out within the bloc. EU is a people’s trading market and a market of extortion. Give small countries little bread crumbs like pointless agricultural grants, or pay for a little paint for small insignificant towns to look better as long as you allow freedom of movement.
Scholarships and grants payed for by smaller governments to their students to then only seek top paying employment in the major player such as France, Germany, previously UK. The small countries are losing out on their best talent, keeping their own countries down in the pits.
There isn’t an invisible pit of money or skills just because you form a Union. Someone has to pay
61
@NJL
It's also massively corrupt, as the Times investigation last year found, to hundreds of billions of dollars. But I think there's something to be said for fixing things instead of blowing them up.
11
@NJL due respect I watched as poorer countries built highways, bridges and rail lines with generous subsidies from Brussels. I saw member states shift from centrally governed economies to more free market economies (for better or worse), I watched as -now solidly middle class- tourists began to arrive from countries they were once forbidden from leaving.
I fear you paint a rather simplistic image of something that is far more nuanced.
110
@NJL
You are mistaken. It was created by countries that had suffered hostile foreign military occupation during the war and were absolutely viscerally determined that no such catastrophe ever happen to them ever again. (Btw, Britain never suffered occupation, so never felt the need to buy into the project.)
No one claims the EU is perfect. Yes there is fraud. Yes there may be waste (Although the monthly move of the E.P. to Strasbourg is the living embodiment of Franco-German reconciliation and as such worth every penny it costs). And yes there is administrative latency. But all of these faults are being addressed and in due course will be fixed, until new issues and challenges naturally come up.
As for only benefiting the big players, you must be kidding. Ask my fellow Belgians. Or ask the Irish, who for the first time in their history have the upper hand against the English.
103
Brexit needn’t have happened, if the UK’s recent leaders had listened to their people and decreased immigration. Instead, elites among both Tories and Labor insisted on maintaining high immigration levels. Hence the over-the-top backlash, with all sorts of negative consequences, some of which will likely emerge in the coming years.
Sound familiar, my fellow Americans?
7
In a sense, for the UK to leave the EU is not without some possible long term benefits for both parties. The UK lost an empire, but has still to find a role and its relationship with the mainland has always been a troubled one.
As the Scots say, the English need to dree their weird and come to terms with what they are. After that, they may or may not rediscover that they have always been part of Europe.
Europe will probably survive either way.
2
The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Anti Brexit people were mainly corporations and business people who are worried about the flow of money. I doubt average working people are going to feel much change at all, and a year from now no one will be talking about it.
3
Average working people are the first people to be affected by an economic collapse. They ignore politics at their own peril.
8
“It also gives the bloc potentially less clout. “Any room the E.U. walks into, it will carry less weight than when the U.K. was a member — on trade, climate, defense,” said Paul Taylor, a senior fellow at Friends of Europe, a research institution.”
This works both ways. Britain also has less clout and likely will pay a price outside their shores in influence for their actions.
At least the parting ways has been peaceful. A lesson for the US that if we continue will likely require us to part ways as we can’t even agree on the details and facts here with republican states.
2
@Mathias, let’s wait until this December before deciding how peaceful the parting of the ways has been. Hope you’re right!
I lived three years in England and my family is Northern Euro. My take is this:
The Brits are islanders, and that enables many things, including a pronounced eccentricity of national character not found in mainland Europe. There’s no German or French Monty Python. The age of great, eccentric, brilliantly imperial island cultures is past. The world now is all about the corporate, the universal, the global homogeneity that has made the leading edge of everywhere more similar.
Thus it’s true that brexit is a longing, a dream of an idealized past where even lord and peasant bore the same familial essence, being both of the same tribe and local system, -rather than a corporate relationship, the unrooted, borderless reality of prosperous corporatism.
So the “elites”, the professionals of London and Paris and Berlin are appalled at the victory of the Brexiteers. It will indeed impact their prosperity.
But there’s another aspect: all these sneering and doom predicting comments! I believe that unconsciously the prosperous, well educated, corporate workers of Europe and Canada and America ... are envious. No not envious of the economic pain that probably awaits the Brits, but of the freedom and willfullness they have exercised, to choose a dream over money.
12
Monty Python is your argument? Very well informed. I’ve changed my mind out of deference to your superior critical thinking skills.
7
@Chuffy
Right you are. I envy the Brits their freedom, and wish to emulate it. Can blue state America exit the US and leave Stupidstan to figure out who will pay their welfare?
8
The tone and content of this piece comes as a surprise. As a European, I don’t believe Brexit is a positive change but I find the notion that it’s a huge loss for the UE laughable. While I can understand that Americans instinctively side with Leavers - the rebellious, let’s reclaim our freedom and our rights narrative is a very popular delusion in the USA - I am still looking for the fact supporting that claim. The UK was always half in half out, expecting to benefit from the EU when wanted and avoid the inconveniences that come with the partnership. I don’t see how that ambivalence ever made them the “rich, sizable” member described here. While they did contribute, they fully benefited from free circulation of goods and services. While conservatives rage against immigrants, they like to ignore the fact that parts of the service economy would collapse without said immigration. Another parallel with the USA. I wish the UK and its citizens well but I do hope that in the future the barrier to entry in the EU is much higher so to avoid the same “half in half out” situation we had to carry for so long.
71
@Foodie Bravo!
3
@Foodie “parts of the service economy would collapse”, you mean restaurants would have to pay living wages and there would once again be really terrific career waitpersons rather than members of the gig economy trying to survive on
several jobs including service businesses. This doesn’t even begin to address the problems created for the once terrific NHS when flooded by everyone “ seeking a better life “ including free healthcare that British taxpayers had contributed to their entire lives. The E.U. was great for Germany for awhile but even they were hurt in the long run by the less responsible nations. When everyone had their own currencies they could better determine their own future, but just as has happened here to many people looking for freebies killed the golden goose that was the middle class, globalization and offshoring of jobs finished the job.
1
@Foodie "A popular delusion in the uSA." You mean the American revolution of 1776-1789 that kicked the British out?
British Prime Minister Ted Heath's aspiration in 1973 (when the UK, Denmark & Ireland joined the then EEC) was that Britain "would come to see the World through a European lens".
Sadly, Mr. Heath - a WW II Veteran who advocated close relations between European Countries, some of whom had warred with one another - was to be disappointed. Britain proved to be a consistently awkward "Partner" within the EEC, the EC & EU, constantly carping, and declining to "engage" constructively with the various Members of an evolving union of European States.
Underlying all this, was a significant view in Britain that "We were an Empire, deferring to Nobody", so why should we now have to humor the French, the Germans or anyone else? Unlike America, Britain does not have a tradition of welcoming Immigrants, so for all that they hugely contributed to the success of the British Economy + its Health Services, for all that the UK hugely benefited from its Membership of EEC/EC/EU, chauvinism and racism won the day when it came to "Brexit".
And now ? The remaining EU 27 will probably be heaving huge sighs of relief that this once promising "Fellow Member", but latterly constant thorn in the side, has left.
And, for all that the UK may think otherwise, they will have extreme difficulty securing anything approaching a favorable relationship with the 450 million+ who remain in the EU...
34
@Jackson
The German Economy in 2019 grew for the 10th year in a row - the longest period of growth since German Reunification in 1990.
The French Economy also grew (but, of course, it's convenient "Trumpist Propaganda" to claim they are "continually on strike").
And, overall, the EU Economy grew in 2019.
But, maybe you just don't want to respect the facts...
3
The smartest thing UK ever did was retaining its own currency. Much of the economic problems of the Mediterranean countries are due to being in the Euro because their trade balances cannot support the Euro exchange rate. Meanwhile Germany, with its strong trade performance, benefits considerably from the lower Euro rate generated by the poorly performing Med countries. UK maintained control of its monetary policy while those on the Euro did not. The EU need to centralise fiscal policy if it is to succeed in all countries. Meanwhile they need to sort out an EU wide asylum/refugee policy and dismantle the stultifying beauracracy of Brussels - the two issues that were the drivers behind Brexit.
11
Although the UK technically will have left the EU by Saturday, they are still in the EU. Trade and visas etc are all the same until December.
Only in December will we know what type of Brexit it is.
If there is no deal the United Kingdom of Great Britain and North Ireland ceases to exist as Northern Ireland will remain part of the single market to maintain a frictionless Irish border.
If there is a soft exit then the UK will remain part of the single market.
If there is something in between then Northern Ireland more or less effectively leaves the UK.
3
@Kevin Niall
Where would Ulster go? There are currently a whole bunch of under utilized terrorists on both side, and an economy that would be a drag on the Republic. I’m not sure the Republic will welcome them without terms.
Britain was never a full member of the European Union, retaining its own currency. Sure, the EU has its own problems, but as in dealing with anyone who doesn’t want to be there (and never really did), good riddance! it shouldn’t have taken this long.
Of course, what will most likely happen is that both sides will emerge weaker. Strength (and peace) in unity, esp after 2 World Wars, is why the union was formed in the first place.
8
I’m British and I’m devastated by the inevitable damage which Brexit will wreak. If anyone had told me back in, say, 2013, that we’d be leaving the EU by the end of the decade, I wouldn’t have believed them. Only cranks, oddballs and eccentrics favoured doing so. But anti-EU hysteria seems to have taken hold of a large part of the electorate, whipped up by media barons and hedge fund billionaires who want to make even more money. And it all leaves us without the precious right to live, study and work throughout the EU. Not to mention leaving the world’s largest trading bloc. What a loss. In the next (imminent?) international financial crisis, we’ll be pitiably vulnerable. And what do we obtain in exchange? Having to go cap in hand to Trump for a trade deal in which we have negligible leverage. Ditto with China. Maybe you guys might like to adopt our Royal Family? We don’t have much else to offer. We also have a prime minister who makes Trump look like George Washington when it comes to telling the truth. Help! We’ll need all the help we can get.
92
@Monterey Sea Otter Very, very well said. Today I had minor surgery at a hospital in South London. Of all the doctors or nurses who saw me, only two said they were native Brits. The NHS can't survive without imported labour. Ironic, given that "save our NHS" is one of the strongest rallying cries for the pro-Brexit crowd.
30
"Having to go cap in hand to [the loser] for a trade deal in which we have negligible leverage."
...and even (and far) worse, will likely sacrifice the NHS to the altar of corporate-pact-NOT-"trade deal" Mammon, all to appease offshore-hoarders and racists.
Brexit is the new longest suicide note in history.
7
@Monterey Sea Otter . Don’t worry. Trump will do a bi-lateral trade deal with Great Britain. He’ll make England great again.
5
Welcome to the tangible power of disinformation.
The British were subjected to the same embryonic methods of informational subversion, courtesy of Russia, that were employed against the United States during the 2016 election. To great effect.
In both cases, the popular majorities interests were subverted by the radicalization of a highly motivated minority. The failure of the majority to exercise their voting rights is acknowledged.
We have only begun to see this suspect informational warfare reach a level of mass destruction. If Brexit or Trump hasn't primed the pump for authoritarian state actors to further undermine our Western democratic model then wait for 2020.
Red Alert. We're in an information war that we are woefully unprepared for and blindly naive to. Full stop.
80
Too many white people are scared of brown people. If that wasn’t the case, then the Russian propaganda never would have gained a foothold in either country.
8
I disagree most strongly. Brexit has strengthened and united the EU like nothing else in its history. A recalcitrant member who blocked almost everything progressive won't be overly missed. I believe greatly in the efficiency and co-operation of the EU. I consider it the most noble political project in world history, which has brought Europe peace and prosperity post WW2. I raise a glass of champagne to my fellow europeans and will work for the greater good of all of us Europeans.
71
Beautifully stated!
7
As an applied economist, I am disappointed that the UK is leaving the EU. That's because the UK can achieve so much more economic growth within the EU than outside the EU. The European Union is a grand vision for uniting Europeans. When Europeans continue to unite, especially politically, other nations like Asians, Latinos, Africans, etc. will also speed up their political unification efforts so that they can increase their economic wellbeing. However, the decision to leave the EU was made after a second referendum, therefore, that wish must be respected.
I believe that a big mistrust by many conservative citizens of the UK and I dare add, the US, can be attributed to a belief, supposedly from the Bible, that it is in the best interest of the UK & the US, not to be part of the EU. I submit that due to economic reasons, it would be better for the UK to be part of the EU. But now that the UK has left the EU, it is clear to me that the economic hardship that will ensue in the UK, will also bring the beginning of new structural changes in the UK governance.
But, I'm an optimist and is bullish for the United States and the United Kingdom, especially when they have responsible & expansive governments. For that reason, it is my belief that a Democratic President and Congress would be very good for the United States for the next 4 years. But, this may not always be the case in future. As for the UK, I'll pay more attention to the issues. But now, omg!
5
@James O. Mboya I don't think you can call the election a second referendum,. The vote was not a direct referendum because it was an election with implications for Brexit. It is clear that many conservatives "remainers" chose their party over the opposition and in the process gave their vote to people who favored Brexit. If a referendum had been held, Brexit might may have won, but it definitely would not have had the large vote that the political election gave Johnson.
1
the truth is that England always wanted to have a foot in two shoes, being in the EU and at the same out of it. It always voted to support the USA when these had policies that were against the rule of the EU like estrogenized beef.
So it all depends to the real European nations (England never considered itself a total European country) to see clearly and go for a more intelligent and democratic Union.
4
This headline has it all wrong. It’s a loss but not a defeat for the EU. The only ones who will suffer from this will be the residents of the UK, many of which never wanted to brexit. It’s a singular and historic case of self-defeat and self-harm that the UK will sadly spend many years recovering from.
129
"But for the European Union, the loss of Britain is a significant defeat. It represents a loss of size, reach, momentum and permanence, comparable to Texas deciding to break away from the United States."
Yes, but if Texas broke away from the United States, the United States as a whole would experience a net gain in tolerance and a net reduction in right-wing belligerence.
So, too, with the U.K., which is experiencing its own version of Trumpist leadership and a revival of Thatcherite approaches to the economy and to human services.
60
@TimesChat Very true.
@TimesChat For what it's worth, California is the world's fifth-largest economy, so the loss of Britain would perhaps be more like the secession of California--economically. Certainly not culturally (to the credit of California).
It took a century to go from the Union of the Crowns in 1603 to the Acts of Union in 1707. From 1707 to the late twentieth century, the United Kingdom was an imperial power, of which Little England was merely a small part.
Indeed, without the Irish and the Scots (and later others) fighting on the front lines, the empire would not have existed at all.
It might take another century for Scotland and Ireland to achieve the independence they once had, but it’s probably inevitable. Both have a lot in common with the rest of Europe, and when England no longer opportunities for their energy and talent, the nations of the EU will be the main beneficiaries.
Anyone who doubts this should look up “The Green Hills of Tyrol”, and ask themselves why the Scots would necessarily see themselves aligned with Little England.
8
@Global Charm
It will not take a century for Scotland to join the EU. Things are moving faster than it seems.
14
Perhaps the exiting member is not so sizable nor as powerful after all. It will be the poorer as the EU will be, but the economic loss on the EU side is shared among a block of countries 10 times larger in population and wealth. If “Britain” - an invention that came on the heels of the Second World War - won’t be eaten up by the United States, it will be weakened and diminished further with the exit of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The British empire got powerful and rich on the backs of the Chinese and Indians. Without them there is little wealth to show, and I expect Britain or what’s left of it will have to give up its security council seat to India or Brazil sometime in the not too distant future.
100
@Yasser Taima
The assumption that British wealth is based on the "backs of Chinese and Indians" ignores the transformational effects of the Industrial Revolution. The steam engine, the powered loom, the computer, and the railroad were not inventions of the Indians or the Chinese. They were British.
17
@Yasser Taima
Northern Ireland is not part of Britain but it is part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
10
Those numbers are stunning - 45% of all exported British goods go to the EU, and 53% of all imported goods to Great Britain come from the EU. By years end, if there is no deal (and don't expect one), all of this trade will be subject to WTO tariffs, inspections or outright bans. British products in Europe will be more expensive and thus sell less, and European imports will be more expensive in Britain, the added cost swallowed by the average citizen. Lose, lose. If the UK was ill, it's relationship with the Common Market the disease, then the medicine of Brexit will cause so much pain it might very well kill the patient. The dynamics within the EU will change, yes. But Britain has now been set back 45 years. No contest as to who emerges unscathed.
32
Irish Prime Minister Varadkar said it well in a BBC interview: "I don't think the UK has yet come to terms with the fact it's now a small country... I think the reality of the situation is that the European Union is a union of 27 member states. The UK is only one country."
Of course, this incensed Boris Johnson and his followers. The truth of the statement will be hitting home to those living in the UK soon.
528
Walrus Carpenter, of course the United Kingdom understands that. That's the whole point. The United Kingdom would rather be a small country standing on its own rather than a small country governed by overlords.
19
@John Smithson I'm in Denmark, a small country in the EU, and we're certainly not "governed by overlords" in the EU. That's ridiculous.
134
@Walrus Carpenter
Brexit is a loss for everybody with some redeeming features. The ability now for the Irish to rub English noses into their new-found position of inferiority in a way that will have the English spitting feathers, is one of them.
68
I think this is a very bizarre analysis.
Let's take just one "British" industry, cars.
The only wholly-owned British car company is Morgan. Morgan can probably survive without the EU and Mr. Erlanger is welcome to own one.
Jaguar and Rover, owned by the Indian company, Tata.
Rolls Royce, owned by BMW.
And on and on.
There is almost nothing produced in the U.K that does not depend upon "just-in-time" input and output. And that includes food.
All of this aside, the value of the EU to the world at large has been peace (more or less) in Europe for the last 60 years.
The British never seem to grasp this nor does Erlanger.
26
@Fred Old style manufacturing isn't that important to the British economy any more, that's why our economy is expected to grow more strongly than the rest of the EU. Services are more valuable but not more important. Our government still supports our very high tech industries such as jet engines: Rolls Royce. Aerospace: BA & Quinetiq. Microprocessors: ARM. Ship Building: BA, all world leading companies. Most American and expat views of the UK are way out of date. I was an expat once but saw the light.
2
@AngloSaxon
Old style manufacturing may not be important anymore but I'd be willing to be that all those industries you named require inputs from the world at large and those inputs will become more expensive after Feb. 1.
And, the costs of those product to the EU, the UK's major trading partner, will get more expensive.
@Fred In the new world the material content is trivial compared with the intellectual inputs. Most of the inputs you speak are available from multiple sources and we intend, where we are able, to remove tariffs, not raise them. The main problem, which is a world problem, is world population growth and consequent mass migration which is placing a huge burden on our health and education services. We have to have stronger immigration controls.
After what the EU did to Greece I'm glad to see our closest ally get out. The EU is not a club I would want to belong to, nor my friends.
Best of luck to the Brits. I have a feeling they'll be fine.
12
@laurence lie the US will be with Trump. Got-it.
Feelings were the driver of Brexit. That was the problem.
I split time between the US and Europe. People like yourself do not understand Europe for one reason: unwillingness to learn a language and get out of the Anglo-Saxon bubble.
@CitizenTM Britons are the worlds most travelled people and next to the Chinese probably have the largest diaspara, not bad for a small island. I've been to Europe many times and its usually closed.
Britain will be hurt far more than the remainder of the EU. Americans will have difficulty understanding the vast amount of trade that occurs within the EU. I have seen the truck traffic on the autoroute between Perpignan on the French side and Barcelona. It is amazing, and that is only one minor route. The presence of a customs border now with the UK on the outside will prove to be a terrible hindrance. Granted that the EU has problems with its many rules and continued issues with integration of cultures, but it remains a huge market. As such, it has far more negotiation power than does the UK alone. In addition, we have yet to see the whole issue of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK play out, as there will inevitably be tracking of goods as they cross the Irish Sea. Brexit forces the North to align more with the Republic because of the demand for cross-border economic activity. If one looks at economies as they will compete over the next century, the various camps and spheres of influence will remain important, and the UK has divorced itself from others who would protect its interests.
15
Divide and conquer -- a time proven strategy to defeat your enemy.
1) Divide and conquer the E.U.
2) Divide and conquer Americans.
3) Divide and conquer sentient beings over Climate Change.
4) Divide and conquer the community of nations over the Iran Nuclear prohibition.
5) Divide and conquer the free world over the Kurdish allies and Syria.
Russia & Divisive Forces = 5
Free World = 0
28
To employ the divisive virus of social media for gain requires a complete lack of moral values. Perfect for the Russian oligarch fascists.
1
I’ve mentioned before that I find Purity of Essence really easy to remember, as it is from my favorite movie, Dr. Strangelove. (Jack D. Ripper was obsessed with POE.) I remember their posts. I know very well how much they support Russia and the Putin party line. And being pro-Leave is definitely the Putin party line.
1
Good riddance! The British Empire is now reduced to a sidelined province,soon to be orphan of Ireland and Scotland who won't give up their hard won European membership. God save the queen! She will need it...
19
@Herbert FYI the British Empire ended a long time ago.
2
Brexit isn't ideal for the EU, but it's not a "major defeat". Britain was never truly at home in an integrated Europe.
If France or another "core" continental country were to leave, then I truly would be worried about the EU's fate.
With Britain out, the EU may be able to reach its full potential as a diverse, yet coherent bloc.
511
@Abdou War
It's a defeat for the EU and already proving to be UK's loss as predicted. That will affect the EU considerably in lost revenue.
If worse comes to worse, people will revolt as they have. It will fall on the small majority who voted for this nationalist nonsense strangely called Brexit.
The EU was formed to strengthen Europe against fascist dictators. There's no question changes needed to be made, but to leave without trying to make those changes is cause for concern.
5
@Stan Current It obviously always is a defeat if something is lost. However, I also believe that in the mid to long term it will be better for Europe. The UK was often pushing US interests more than the European ones. They also never really seemed to want to be part of the EU (see all the special deals they had).
Only time will tell. I only feel bad for the young people with wanted to stay in and have less opportunities now
7
Good to see that the British government is finally doing what the British people voted for. Whatever you think of the merits, this is a victory for democracy. Not surprisingly, the governing elite fought it hoof and mouth, arguing that the British people are too stupid to know what's good for them, and almost succeeded.
59
@J
Keep in mind the vote happened in 2016, and was heavily influenced by Cambridge Analytica and Russian misinformation. It was a warm up for the elections in US a few months later which were similarly skewed by outside influence.
This is not a victory for Democracy, it is a victory for Putin.
185
@J
This is not a victory for democracy. Russia interfered in the Brexit election just as they did in the 2016 US election. In addition, Boris Johnson and his crew of Brexiteers told an astonishing number of lies to win the vote. This was all on top of years of the British media's endless lies and misrepresentations about the EU. (https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/the-eu-have-archived-all-of-the-euromyths-printed-in-uk-media-and-it-makes-for-some-disturbing-reading/14/11/?fbclid=IwAR1uETir3eOCV6FGGSMfiO1lQe2mpsqPGjKi_-2ttkiGs-jRpeiZYME6uE0)
If democracy functions best when the electorate is informed of the facts and can make an educated choice, then this was certainly not an example of functioning democracy.
One more thing: the governing elite did not fight it tooth and nail. It was very divided. And if you don't think Boris Johnson is part of the British elite, you haven't been paying attention.
41
@J
Brexit is the consequence of lies, lies and more lies. This may indeed be a form of democracy -- in which case the Brits will deserve to get it good and hard.
47
Will it really matter? I don't think so. A little. Not much. Geographic and cultural closeness will remain, as will differences. The European Union is not like a real union. It is just another layer of bureaucracy on top of what was already sufficient for the larger countries.
If some of the small countries were to leave, the change would be bigger. Britain leaving will have fewer consequences -- more symbolic than real.
27
@John Smithson
The EU regulations where applicable do replace all related national regulations. It is NOT an additional administrative layer. It is 1 rule replacing 28 rules.
33
Ronald Grünebaum, my point is that the United Kingdom already has all it needs to be an independent country. It has a lawmaking body. It has an executive. It has courts. It has diplomats. It has a military. None of those went away. None will need to be created. They will all function now, just as they have functioned all along.
But now the United Kingdom will not be forced to adopt as its national law anything passed by an overarching government, which in many cases are imposed by bureaucrats rather than representatives of the people. This, as Boris Johnson as often emphasized, is one of the main reasons the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union in two days.
12
@John Smithson only a deep misunderstanding or ignorance to reduce European rules to a layer of bureaucracy. I wouldn’t qualify the ability for European citizens to study, work, vote for some elections anywhere in the Union as a layer of bureaucracy. There are European elections. That the laws adopted by the union do not satisfy some citizens doesn’t diminish the fact that the EU is not solely ran by technocrats disconnected from the citizens
31
Putin has to pinch himself. Use the internet, free speech laws and ignorance to weaken two of his biggest geopolitical foes. Genius.
23
There are those that would argue that Texas seceding from the US would be a good thing..for the U.S.
6
Watch for trouble in Northern Ireland.
4
Well China and Russia got just what they wanted.
A weakened Europe at odds with itself
Good luck Britain with your dishonest MP who with help from Russia and others lied this mess into place.
4
Brexit, trump, Putin, erdogan, bolsonaro...did someone leave the asylum door open?
7
Germany, France and other influential countries are probably wringing their hands and consumed with worry now that the "most important" member has decided to leave. They will be so envious within a year or so that they will follow this brilliant move and dissolve the Euro economy and all the devastatiosnd it has caused them. It only took Britain 40 years and a lot of turmoil to realize that they could not ride rough-shod over the EU. Boris and the Brexiteers are riding a crest of popularity in Britain now. We'll check back in later next year to see how it's going.
2
on th escale of 1-10 form bad t good, this opinion piece has to be about -3.
What a one.sided load of codswallop.
The real losers are the people of Great Britain. All of them.
17
Putin wins; thx Johnson; trump
7
Brexit is also a California-size defeat for the U.K. Its GDP is expected to get a 2% haircut. There is also the reasonable possibility that Scotland may exit the U.K. in order to remain in the E.U. Remember, Scotland was talked into not becoming independent with the promise that the U.K. would remain part of the E.U.
12
@Alex
This Scot living in Scotland would tentatively disagree. Holyrood voted today to keep the EU flag flying outside parliament. Unimportant in practical terms but still a strong statement of intent.
8
Fractionation is bad, except when good.
Putin must be thrilled. Not only did he ensure that his complicit puppet, Donald Trump, would become president of the US, he has effectively ruptured European unity as well. In his wildest dreams, Putin could not possibly have anticipated such an outcome. And let’s not forget that Putin has also managed to coop the entire Republican Party into being his lap dogs.
27
Wouldn't write off Frexit just yet, without putting it to the people...
Leadership has more or less said to them:
"You want us to let you eat cake, and have it too?"
After their fiery response – the state's rejoinder:
“Belgian waffles – on us”
Seemed to just make things worse…
1
In ten years’ time all the ‘let’s get back to the empire days’ Brexiters will be dead.
We will return to Europe as we are first and foremost – Europeans.
7
The Brits have committed national suicide. This will become obvious in two years.
18
To get another perspective on this, look at the article in the Guardian today: 'Britain will feel the pain of being excluded': the countries clamouring to join as UK exits the EU"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/29/britain-will-feel-pain-of-being-excluded-the-countries-clamouring-to-join-as-uk-exits-eu-brexit
Plus lets see where Scotland and Northern Ireland end up. It may not be the loss of Britain, just England and Wales.
5
Nothing encapsulates the EU ethos better than having its un-elected Vice President shut off a Member's microphone because he dared to wave the flag of the country that elected him as MEP.
6
I remember the UK pre- Brexit - poor, dismal, grey. Then came the EU, the Chunnel, holiday homes and no customs on wine, beer, and spirits. London brought investment as the financial hub. As far as being “told what to do” check out Trump. He gives nothing away for free. Let’s hope everyone is “jolly old” 5 years from now.
6
Get ready for Scotxit and NIxit. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
4
The victory of Brexit is a victory of nationalism, anti-immigrant feeling, anti-globalization, racism, and anti-Semitism. It will lead to monetary instability and to severe financial shocks.
4
They'll be back.
1
@RMurphy They might not be taken back.... I hope!
1
I find it very nice to have the arrogant British gone, and alone on their soggy little island. From Spain we send you hearty “saludos” and fabulous new tariffs on our wine and olive oil. And we will figure out how to tax you for our sun. “Good riddance”, as we say in Castellano.
16
That will happen again when you force undemocraticly the will of a few elites over the whole population.
1
Whatever else the fallout, Brexit was a HUGE win for Ireland. I’m sure there’s a lot of unhappy Northern Irelanders.
2
Another win for Putin in his never-ending campaign to weaken the West.
4
One of the biggest issues for Brexit was Islamophobia, Xenophobia and pure racism. The UK has done what Stephen Miller is trying to do in the US.
7
Just makes me envious that texas can’t leave the usa so easily. Just think of usa without past presidents johnson and bush and assorted house bullies and senate deviants. If only....
Anyway, the eu will do just fine with or without the uk (actually probably just england and wales).
4
Before another decade passes Scotland will have become an independent state and Northern Ireland will have unified with the Republic of Ireland adding to the validity and primacy of the EU and diminishing Great Britain to a singular state of England.
7
I remember listening to the BBC weather forecast: ''there is heavy fog over the channel, Britain is cut off from Europe''.
To some extent, many British never felt they were part of Europe.
It should be noted however that the well educated, the well off, those who greatly benefited from open borders and free trade, overwhelmingly voted to remain. Less educated, poorer Brits overwhelmingly voted to leave.
Had those who benefited from the EU and globalization shared some of the fruits with those who suffered the consequences of globalization instead of imposing years of austerity to finance tax cuts for the wealthy, Britain would still be in the EU.
Brexit was never about the EU, most voters understood little about the EU, what it does and how it does it. They understood that their lives seemed to only get more insecure for themselves and for their children. They threw a wrench in the machine feeling they had little to lose.
15
They lose bigly.
Let them go - and never visit England again.
4
@Publius
England will be great to visit for its old estates, museums and palaces. It will be like vacationing in Greece, but without the sun and good food.
5
@Joe Miksis We have plenty of those (old estates, museums and palaces) in the EU, with the sun, good food and joie de vivre (something deeply missing in the soon to be broken UK).
It is quite sad that the departure of the UK is based mostly on economic complaints, and that those complaints have taken precedence over the idea that the EU was and is about cooperation and peace-keeping. The EU has many problems which are undeniable. But the idea that leaving it is a triumph of any kind, as British Leavers maintain, is nonsense. No one really stands to benefit, no matter what wishful thinking is being promulgated - not the UK and not Europe. Actually, I'd rather say "not UK citizens and not European citizens," because in the end this is supposed to be about people, not companies and institutions. But I also think that the idea that the EU is going to experience this as a massive defeat is wrong and not supportable. Some regrouping is going to have to happen, and yes, there will certainly be some pain points along the way -- but predicting collapse or disaster is groundless. Sometimes, journalism really does seem to exist to try to keep justifying itself.
9
The UK is and isn't part of Europe. They have always considered themselves apart from "The Continent".
It was a mistake for them to have joined the EU in the first place.
Living with Germans in peace after two world wars is one thing, but taking orders from them, including who to admit to your country and how to manage your national budget, are among the things that most Brits found unacceptable. I don't blame them. The UK will be fine after Brexit, probably better than ever.
10
@Asher The EU does not have a say in how its member countries manage their national budgets. I don't know where you get that information from
3
The major problem with "multilateral-ism" is that it can force a country to support things that are not in the best interests of it's citizens.
Open borders sounds great until yours is the country with the most generous welfare system and you find yourself overwhelmed by people that don't even speak your language demanding benefits.
The other great downside is a flood of people that are willing to work under the table so they don't pay taxes to support the welfare they demand, for less than the prevailing wages. This is what has happened here in the USA.
9
Not a defeat for the EU, who did their best to accommodate a petulant UK.
Not a defeat, because it shows that countries who want out of the EU can indeed get out, nobody is being forced ; Not a defeat, because the Brexit was orderly in the end and all the EU members did their best to protect Ireland ; Not a defeat, because in the fullness of time Ireland will be reunited again, and maybe Scotland will break out and join the EU as an independent country.
Indeed a defeat, because the UK is making a massive mistake. The reasons for leaving the EU were dishonest and UKIP lied to people.
In the end, the UK will have no choice but to continue to cooperate with the EU and nothing much will have changed. Rest assured that the tabloid will continue to complain about Brussels.
34
Mother was a McRae and i wear the Clan's Tartan most days here in America. All my life I have dreamed of a FREE Scotland. Finally it looks like it will happen. Thanks GB for never wanting progress.
7
This is a huge win for Russia - Putin, to be more precise. And when the history of Putin's efforts to subvert western democracies is fully told, my hope is that the right-wing populists who played fast and loose with our Democracies will face a reckoning of epic proportions.
3
@Norman
And how exactly is that a win for Putin? The UK didn't pull out of NATO, nor does it have plans to restore punitive penalties on Russia for its dealing with Ukraine. And EU and UK aid to Ukraine will not subside. A win for Putin is for Trump to pull out of NATO, which he has toyed with in the past.
4
The article is wrong to argue that E.U. is , from a military perspective weaker without the U.K.
While it is true that Britain ‘s army has a respectable power, it has not been deployed during the last 20 years to protect EU’s interests. Since the war in Irak , the British army has become a suppletive army for America, providing troops where the US needed it.
Europe isn’t loosing much in this respect.
6
The UK should be punished, not “ held closely”. Caused an untold amount of damage over an unwise referendum.
@PeterH wow! whatever side you're on, I want to be on the opposite side.
1
The fact that Britain and France have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council highlights how out of date that institution is.
5
Few of our problems will be solved by leaving the EU - nearly all are home grown. The Brexiters don't care though - they have successfully provoked a nasty popularism mainly in England's small town and rural areas, and particularly among fairly well off older people in the more prosperous southern England and less well off in the north/midlands. It's similar to Trump's MAGA nonsense.
My own district in London voted 79% to stay in...
47
How can this possibly positively effect Northern Ireland?
@Lawrence It could provide the push needed to reunify the island and join the EU again.
2
"But for the European Union, the loss of Britain...represents a loss of size, reach, momentum and permanence, comparable to Texas deciding to break away from the United States."
Um, Texas breaking away from the U.S.? And this would be bad because...?
5
Texas leaving the union would be bad for the USA because ... they’re a massive land area, have more people than New York State, have a larger GDP than New York State, and are growing far far far faster than New York State (which is shrinking fast but for the flow of impoverished international immigrants into NYC). NY is old and dead. TX is young and growing by leaps and bounds. 3 of the top 10 growing cities in the entire country are Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Austin. DFW and H are together bigger than NYC and Philly.
Additionally, TX supplies the oil and gas on which large areas of the USA are utterly dependent. How bout all them oil and gas fields in NYS? Your car would be dead by Tuesday without TX oil, homes would freeze, stoves would go cold, and you’re utterly dependent on their natural gas for fertilizer, plastics, etc. coming out of Houston’s petrochemical industry.
3
Brits will be forced to put the monarchy on a budget . The royals are so embarrassing to the un- united Brits . SNP will declare independence & the North will once again be Ireland .
Turkey, especially with Erdogan in power, is a "non-starter" for entry. In time, the Brexiters will find out that the whole idea was a sham brought forth by Farage and the "Little Englanders". What happens when, and if, Northern Ireland and Scotland decide, as they voted, for unity with the Republic of Irleand by the former and independence by the latter. The U.K. will be no more. Sad.
5
Texas-Size Defeat for the E.U., yes but the EU has no one to blame but themselves, why did they keep give the UK so much time, what was it 4 years, this is the failure if the EU its too big and it can't make a decision it let in all those worthless Eastern European countries that don't this or play by the rules, then the EU stand around wondering what to do.
Stick a fork in the EU, it's worthless.
TIme to end NATO let Europe defend themselves, they don't mind using all that Russian oil and gas sending money to Russian that used again them.
I don’t know. Britain is a relatively small part of the Union and always an odd fit. Smaller and more unified is not always worse
1
I disagree with almost all the views presented in the article - all conventional wisdom.
The facts on the ground point to another, darker future: Britain will continue to lose international influence, its internal conflicts will rise as a result of being free of European labour laws, financial controls and environmental regulation; its secessionist movements will grow stronger, and finally, its impeding sell-out to trump's America will cause its long-termdownfall.
To Poodle-dom.
The EU, on the other hand will have less money, but more cohesion and less distraction by the UK. Hungary and Poland will at some point have more liberal governments, not that those two little countries are seriously going to rock the boat and risk their massive subsidies. The times ahead will continue to be stormy for everyone, but Europe will master them more easily than
(rump-)UK.
39
@Prof Dr Ramesh Kumar Biswas
>> Hungary and Poland will at some point have more liberal governments, not that those two little countries are seriously going to rock the boat and risk their massive subsidies.
lol good one
1
I understand why the EU has less clout. Smaller is size, etc.
But do the people in the U.K. really understand how much their clout has shrunk? Maybe they don’t care but their strength in everything, militarily, negotiating trade deals, attracting companies, just went way down.
24
I question this analysis. In reality Britain never really conducted itself as a "full" member of the EU. Years ago it refused to forsake the Pound for the Euro, effectively signaling that it would one day leave the Union.
Similarly, it never took part in the Schengen program -- again for reasons of aloofness from the other key members of the EU. Such a policy essentially ensured that Britain would stand apart from the EU's policy of greater integration.
In the end analysis, Britain was always an "odd duck" member. It was the only one of the major members which had been a victor in WWII. Consequently, it always held itself apart from the founding members, particularly France and Germany.
And of those two founders, it was particularly hard for "victorious" Great Britain to countenance being at best a big country "partner" with the defeated, yet now economically powerful, Germany.
As the Brits continue to maintain the apartness of their "Fog in Channel; Continent cut off" attitude the Union will now be able to move ahead without having such a "reluctant" leading nation within it.
In the end the Brexiteers might want to keep in mind the old adage of being careful what you wish for....
34
Funnily, most statements in the article can be read in the opposite way.
The Euro currency laggards will now need to get even more aligned.
Germany needs to go back to the much closer relationship with France pre 1973 (and pre 843 for that matter).
The global impotence of Britain will be more obvious.
The democratic legitimacy deficit of Britain will make the EU look rather democratic. Scotland will take note.
EU fisheries policy will suddenly look smart compared to UK governance.
Good article nonetheless.
8
The EU can start reinventing its relationship with the UK on February 1 and vice versa.
The EU needs to start rethinking some fundamentals--much of what drove the UK out are issues that matter to other members.
It is much the same as a couple that divorces and continues to share the same house because they can't sell the place.
Frankly, the pension situation in France should be of more concern than the Brexit.
2
The big fact I didn't know going into this is the incredible discrepancy between UK and EU re: trade. The EU accounts for half of Britain's trade, which is 10% of its own total? Yikes. No way the US is replacing that, particularly since we COMPETE with Britain for a lot of products.
Like, the UK has a huge financial sector. In addition to Texas, the UK is New York. Finance and other services are hard enough to offer globally even within a multilateral union. What is Britain's plan for going solo on that?
18
Northern Ireland will remain part of the single market, that's part of this exit deal, Scotland doesn't want to rush into splendid isolation either, while London, the capital, voted overwhelmingly to remain in Europe. Most young people never saw any sense in leaving. So you basically have rural England and a small bit of Wales left (which made up the minority of I think 37% of voters who actively pursued Brexit). If that doesn't mean disarray and a disUnited Kingdom, I don't know what does. Johnson has no intention and no chance of escaping the chaos of the deal he favored (to further his own career). The insistence on a ridiculously short transition period to negotiate the details of future relations - about seven months - mean further insecurity(talks start in March and by October parliaments will have to debate the results). The Canadian-EU trade deal alone took seven years to negotiate, and those were partners who negotiated in good faith. Time to sell Sterling.
42
‘Rural England’ includes Manchester, Leeds and Birmingham now, does it? I’ll let them know.
7
@Claire Leavey
Damage Limitation is correct. It is essentially rural England and left-behind small towns. The places you mentioned are cities and almost all of England's big cities voted against Brexit, a number by a substantial margin (Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol etc.. Leeds and even Newcastle voted Remain too. Birmingham was one of the few exceptions - voting Leave by a majority of less than half a percent
@Claire Leavey
In respect of Brum you're right, they voted for Brexit, maybe hoping for closer Commonwealth links. My comment sums up what a group of us, all former Londoners, were discussing. Like many people, one of us had to get a German passport to make sure his family was alright. If Johnson carries on like that, it'll be easier to travel to Russia soon.
"It also gives the bloc potentially less clout."
Is that a joke?
The largest trading bloc in the world will have less clout because of the loss of the no longer relevant "United Kingdom"?
The kingdom is united in name only, its economy is already suffering and the German Foreign Minister just reminded the UK that if it wants access to the common market it has to play by EU rules.
The EU holds ALL the cards here. The UK holds none.
There will be no return to, as most Brexiteers have deluded themselves into thinking, a return to the glory days of empire.
They have lost whatever clout they had by leaving the EU and in every trade deal they make they will be the supplicant and not the one calling the shots.
The UK decided to leave the EU, the EU did not leave the UK.
With a soon to be independent Scotland, a reunified Ireland coming along in the future, probably sooner rather than later, the UK is finished.
But hey, they're still great at...Well, I don't know what really.
330
@Raven The statement that the EU is weakened is true even if everything else you said is true. If Texas leaves the US, Texas would likely become less influential, as it can no longer effect US policy, but the US will also be weaken too - these are not contradictory things.
12
@Raven I could not agree with you more. Damn! You made it as clear as possible to those deluded Brexteers!
16
@Raven: Agreed.
The U.K. is committing outright economic suicide, chasing dreams of Britannic empire that disappeared a century ago. Back then, Britain fought two crushing wars to stay a major regional power in Europe. Now... they are walking away.
The vast economic engine of European finance that powered London, as the financial capital of Europe, will be gone, along with that vast revenue flow.
When the economy tanks, Scotland will leave, followed by Ireland.
English and Wales - alone.
Good luck!
15
It is important to understand what drove Brexit
When the EU was enlarged to include Poland (wages 1/4 of France), Bulgaria (even lower) , Romania (yet lower) factories closed in high wage EU countries (UK, France) and moved East. A famous case study is that of the Whirlpool factory in Amiens , (labour cost Euro 35) moving to Poland (Euro 7.80) that nearly derailed the campaign of Mr. Macron.
That is, wages moved to the EU average. Welcome in Poland (that however turned less democratic) and it was not welcome by the working population in Western Europe.
Concurrently, under the EU policy of free movement, Polish plumbers willing to work for less , moved to London, putting British plumbers out of work. This was welcome by the British elite, that now could their plumbing in their Victorian Townhouse repaired cheaper and promptly, but not by
British plumbers.
Eventually, the lower middle class revolted (as we see in France with the gillets jaunes, and in the US with Trump voters)
But the fault lies not with the lower middle class. The fault lies with the educated elite that should have foreseen the political consequences and installed a system of transfer payments from the elites (winners) to workers that lost good jobs)
That a) would have helped UK workers and farmers, and b) would have lessened the increasing inequality that, lies at the bottom of all
150
@Woof
Very poor understanding of economics.
Poles now make American washing machines for the EU market and 200 French workers lose their job. Most refused alternative offers by the way.
That allows 20 mio French to get their washing machines cheaper, saving money they spend on French food, securing 200.000 jobs in France.
On top the better paid Polish workers now buy their food in Polish supermarkets owned by leading French retailers, creating 2000 new jobs in France.
26
@Ronald Grünebaum . When corporations secure lower labor costs, they rarely, if ever, pass the savings on to their customer. The benefits are enjoyed by executives and shareholders.
11
@Woof
To Ronald Gruenbaum who writes
Very poor understanding of economics.
Mon cher ami
You have very poor understanding of the French working class
The French working class would rather pay Euro 80 more for a washing machine and have manufacturing job than being a greeter at Walmart at 1/3 of a manufacturing wage,
20
Great Britain will be great only in name. Its disintegration is just beginning. There will be no significant alignment with the US. The EU is more important than little England.
42
I beg to differ, but time will tell.
I believe most Americans have a soft spot for Great Britain and this soft spot will show itself pretty darn soon
2
@William Perrigo (U.S. Citizen) I used to have a soft spot for England, but it's gone now and I doubt it's ever coming back. Notice I said "England", not "Great Britain". Presumably Wales may stay, but Scotland and Northern Ireland are leaving "Great Britain", and I'm cheering them on.
4
"It represents a loss of size, reach, momentum and permanence, comparable to Texas deciding to break away from the United States."
No, because the UK was never in the EU like Texas is in the United States. The UK was half in, at best, and has been resentfully non-cooperative in contradiction to the spirit of union.
The EU lost the hope that the UK would become a better member. But in reality, the EU lost a problem.
252
Yeah, it's not so much that the United Kingdom was a bad or problematic member of the European Union. The United States is not like the European Union, which is more like what the Articles of Confederation provided in the early history of the United States. A loose union that didn't mean too much. In or out will not matter much, as the same relationship factors will remain.
4
'Brexit is a defeat, a rebellion against the concept that working together makes Europeans stronger,’
Yup, that in a nutshell, is the nativist idea clearly espoused by the brexiteers and trumpeters. Everyone for themselves.
Next up, Liverpool exits the UK citing the need to make their own decisions. "We don't want Londoners telling us what to do. And we have better football so we want out of the Premiership too."
60
No, it isn't. The EU is way ahead in this battle.
109
When there's a will there's a way. Britain's breakaway will last until things start hurting, that goes for the EU too. Then level heads will prevail as the markets and their economies start to unravel little by little.
Then the term Brexit will vaporize, leaders from both sides will get their heads together, figure out a way (trade agreements) to prosper economically again, keep it low keyed and in 5 years or so, all is well.
9
@cherrylog754 Even if things go bad for the UK, Brexiters will never admit that Brexit was a mistake. No one likes to admit they were wrong, especially on very emotional issues such as Brexit. It will be a long time before the Brits envision reentering the EU, provided the EU still exists.
If Scotland and Ireland leave the UK, what will remain will be even more hostile to joining the EU.
1
Another way to settle the issue of E.U. choking bureaucracy without 'Brexit', would be - admittedly 'tongue-in-cheek' - to move its H.Q. from Bruxelles to London.
1
Without UK the EU will be more cohesive and more dynamic. UK has always been the biggest opponent of further integration. E.g. British support for accepting Turkey to the EU was a tactic to destroy the latter - EU could not have continued to exist with Turkey as a member. UK has also been open about its intent to ruin the EU from within, which is why many pro-EU folks have been cheering for Brexit.
And just to make sure we're on the same page about this being a goodbye: UK will never rejoin the EU because that would require adoption of euro, Schengen zone membership (abolishing internal border controls) and unanimous agreement of all member-states.
51
@natan Definitely agree the UK will never rejoin. The EU, however, has huge internal divisions that are simply a mess. As the article points out, the UK was a powerful moderating force in Europe, pulling its extreme views towards the middle. That will be very hard to manage once it's exited.
12
@natan Hear, hear.....You saved me writing the same words. Independent of the Island, the Continent will be more uniformly in agreement, financially and politically. The UK was always an unhappy outlier in the EU. The Empire was and what was, was!
4
@natan
"UK will never rejoin the EU "
Never say never. There is a generation of young people coming up who will change the political calculus.
1
Britain realized what the USA realized when we formed our country...It’s not right to be told what to do by others and to be taxed to prop up other nations.
29
@Randy L.
The US is a federation of 50 states and all are represented in the Senate, same as the EU has, all members have a veto right and vote on issues, where is the problem? All the states wanted to join, including GB because its economy was behind the united European states. English workers have many benefits, better labor laws they would not have had without the EU.
It is good GB is gone, they always set in for the US. DeGaulle was right, GB is not a part of continental Europe. He did veto the GB membership twice, but before the third request, he was not there anymore.
18
@Randy L.
Newsflash: Individual US states ARE being taxed to prop up others, while also being told by what to do by a federal government that is weighted towards smaller, poorer states.
106
Divide and conquer.
It’s Putin’s game and he plays it so well that he’s halfway there against the UK, the EU, and sadly the US.
168
Spokesdude, last time I looked Vladimir Putin hasn't conquered anything. Nor does he want to. Russia is hard enough to handle as it is.
8
@Spokesdude
don't blame Putin, it was Trump and the Tories.
4
@John Smithson
Putin conquered Crimea but I get your point.
3
I think it’s a question of how you see the glass, half full or half empty.
I think it’s great!! You don’t want to have people in your house who don’t want to be there, people who spend their time undermining you!
The sooner you get them out the better!!
Europe needs members who want to be there, not saboteurs!
Let all who want to leave stand up and leave! So that those who want to stay and work together can do so in peace without being sabotaged by those who have nothing better to do than sabotage and say no for a living!
Europe should be for those who want to be Europeans, not for those who don’t want to!! Let the latter go away and leave Europe alone!!! Smaller better stronger through a shared vision, not by cumbersome relationships with saboteurs I think!!
41
@Fread
You said it. Europe did well without GB.
4
@Fread the EU has one fewer country to force people on; in the 1980's t was the failed Turkish worker program, where nobody returned after the period of the program. Then in the 1990's the EU forced countries to take in Eastern European migrants due to war and poverty. Then the current wave of migrants,promised houses, jobs, $$, which was the final straw for the UK.
2
The EU and especially Germany could have dealt with the caravans of economic migrants in a better way. My country the United States should have done their fair share by offering asylum and homes to political refugees from Syria. Germany has been made better by providing refuge, and can be forgiven as they offered hope.
20
@NYT Reader
Germany handled the problem very well, not perfectly, they had to learn as they went to deal with so many people very fast too, but they did it.
5
@NYT Reader
Refugees are handled by people in the area - as we get the massive majority of South American refugees, also fleeing horrible conditions, we are doing our bit - or were before Trump.
1
I don't see brexit as a major defeat for the European project at all. I think the continent has been looking across the Channel in great puzzlement and pity.
What brexit is to many in the EU is a wake-up call to the EU political institutions that they must pay much more attention to what the people want.
94
"Brexit Is a Major Defeat for the Idea of Europe"?
No: Britain was always an add-on to the idea of Europe.
It would of course have been nice for Britain to be European, but Pres. de Gaulle was right: Britain has never had a European vocation.
So, the EU maybe gets an 'A' for its effort to include Britain. Britain will be content with a "Gentleman's 'C'."
207
as you say, UK has never been a reliable european partner. As long as they stayed in Europe they were "a pain in the ..."
66
de Gaulle hated the British. Hated the Anglo-Saxon world. Wanted to see France vanquish Britain. It was all about envy and hubris.
4
@Gadea Kinda like France...
1
The UK is now a grade one listed nation. No changes or modernization allowed without planning permission, which won't be forthcoming. It will look quite romantic as it decays.
62
The EU has mutually beneficial trade deals with Norway and Switzerland. Hopefully the UK will do as well with the EU to promote their mutual prosperity.
14
@James F. Clarity IV
The UK had the opportunity but it wanted more preferential treatment it could not get. We will see how the trade deals will work out with the US.
3
@James F. Clarity IV Norway and Switzerland abide by EU rules including the free movement of people. Any European can settle in both countries and vice versa and does not need permission to do so. Once there, he is entitled to the same rights as citizens.
I can not imagine Boris Johnson explaining to those who voted for Brexit that Polish plumbers will continue to be able to emigrate freely to Britain.
The EU is far more than a free trade area.
4
At the end of the day the will of the people prevailed as it had to. The UK has never really fitted in with the EU project as our historical differences have just been too great. We leave as friends and there is no reason why we can't remain friends. Who know the UK outside the EU may be advantageous to both of us, the future will tell.
25
@Trevor Downing
The UK now: No voice, no vote, no veto.
We were in with a lot of opt-outs and now the best we can hope for is to be out with a lot of opt-ins.
106
EU should ask to european citizens about any project of including any new country. And as a starter ask to european citizens if they wanna stay in EU. In France my bet is:NO
6
@Trevor. Does the UK leave as a friend though? The political discourse within the UK and the stance of the British MEPs, especially from the Brexit party, doesn't feel friendly. Brexit could have been an amiable divorce, but it feels as though the UK has made it into a goal on its own to burn as many bridges as possible. I'm afraid that after everything has really been arranged, there will be years of rebuilding required to regain the trust that was before.
20
Let’s not forget that Britain was also an annoying member. It requested opt-outs for many of the EU’s policies, it was against any further integration of the EU even where it made sense (e.g. militarily), it had its membership rebate, their politicians constantly blamed the EU for everything that went wrong in Britain. That badmouthing rubbed off and gave the EU a bad reputation in other countries too (bureaucrats, undemocratic etc.).
And let’s not forget London controlled room much of Euro-denominated trade despite not being in the Eurozone. They had the best deal of all.
Since Brexit, the reputation of the EU in the remaining 27 has vastly improved. There is more ambition (e.g. European Green Deal) and coherence in policy too.
And let’s not forget who’s the winner here, as Britain almost certainly will seek an EFTA-like deal to avoid economic disaster: The EU. They’ll get to trade with Britain without their interference.
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@Liz
How did military integration make sense. The major countries have substantial defense industries, how would these have cooperated in pursuing lucrative contracts. How would the military be used...each country controlling their own military OR at the behest of Brussels. While I disagree with Brexit, the particular point regarding Defense raised by you highlights the issues at the heart of Brexit: economic or political bloc....the EEC (the precursor to the EU) was all about economic cooperation. The EU was trying to become a superstate.
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@Liz - Sorry, your "wish is father to [your] thought." Mr. Lesser, instead, had it right:
“It’s a defeat for everyone — for the European project, for Britain’s position in the world and for American interests, since the U.S. was the beneficiary of Britain in the E.U.,”
Yes, the Brits will suffer and eventually (perhaps sooner than people think) will re-join the project (if it lasts that long.) That's how democracies work: two steps forward and one step back. And there is always another side to the coin: little Manny Macron will get a well-deserved slap down to his arrogant ambition to control the continent.
But any talk of the EU being better off without the British is nonsense. Who would replace the UK? Oh, yes, I understand Romania is lining up to petition for membership in Schengen. That should make everyone forget England. Really?
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@Liz The Eu is not really all that great a model to get hitched to. Their economic performance has always been anemic compared to the rest of the world mainly due to the EU's obsessive bureaucratic systems. Being free of the stultifying hand of Brussels may be just what the UK needs, if they can get a working forward thinking Government. There is not much sign of that sadly though.
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