The underlying sobering fact is that China is less than ten hours away from our shores by jet travel into our major cities. We are not yet sure how this virus operates (incubation, infection period) or how many infected people are already here. There is no guarantee that it will follow the same, manageable course that SARS did. This is a terrible work in progress and could have devastating implications for the entire planet including severe social and economic disruption.
3
Calling 2019-nCoV a pandemic is not supported by the current data. More people have died from the flu in the US. CDC statistics account for ~20,000 death to flu in 2019-2020.
Here is the latest on the coronavirus from MedCram….it demonstrates that the mortality rate closer to the flu statistics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN9-UXsvPBY
I did not know that viruses are increasing due to climate change. (I just read that seismic activity is also increasing.)
We need to elect people who will actually do something about climate change or it will be worse than we even imagine.
5
A worldwide pandemic is an eventual certainty. If it is not this outbreak (which seems unlikely), it will be another. It’s a matter of when and not if. We are woefully underprepared and death tolls will likely exceed the totals of the 1917-18 outbreak by a significant multiple.
Nature has a way of controlling excesses and human population is clearly expanding beyond the planet’s carrying capacity. We tend to take things seriously only when we are in a crisis and by then it is often too late.
The author has an excellent point and we would do well to heed the warning, but with the denigration of science by many (including the President), I am not optimistic. I hope I am wrong.
5
Wilbur Ross is optimistic about the emerging 2019-nCoV pandemic. He thinks America will see an increase in jobs as people flee affected countries. But the U.S. is also being affected and it is only weeks into the discovery of this dangerous new disease outbreak.
10
@AGoldstein
Calling 2019-nCoV a pandemic is not supported by the current data. More people have died from the flu in the US. CDC statistics account for ~20,000 death to flu in 2019-2020.
Here is the latest on the coronavirus from MedCram….it demonstrates that the mortality rate closer to the flu statistics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN9-UXsvPBY
1
Can it be any wonder that this happens in China, where they treat animals with appalling cruelty? If you want your soul crushed, search for dog, markets, torture, China.
3
Coronavirus + trump = apocalypse.
2
@cocobeauvier what kind of response is that. What does Trump have to do with the coronavirus?
There is no virus that is a threat to human existence. What a severe outbreak threatens is the economic order. A two percent drop in world population from a virus will crash most economies who depend on constant growth to sustain the pyramid scheme they call capitalism.
Let's be clear, humans are a dumb animal and are unable to adapt without first suffering severely. Which means we will be too slow to adjust to climate change. Any wars or epidemics that happen now may slightly delay the inevitable end of humans. However, it's not likely that humans will stop breeding uncontrollably, because, like I said, we are dumb animals, and growing dumber all the time as far as I can see.
3
I’d like to hear from a CAFO operator. You know, where our animal foodstuffs are so lovingly prepared? No doubt, they would have some efficacious remedies that have been developed over the years. On a similarly misanthropic note, where are all the whiners who constantly complain about overpopulation when it comes to climate change. Are they hiding under their beds feverishly canceling their flights? Boo-hoo. Karma is a you-know-what.
2
So, the Trump "administration" eliminated the office of pandemic response?? Do these people wake up every morning and think of stupid things to do?
6
Political lies and obfuscation are incapable of solving real world problems.
China should have followed scientific advice and completely re-engineered the structure of its meat markets to isolate them from known dangerous sources of infection after the SARS debacle.
They did not. Therefore history repeats. It’s that simple.
One hundred years from now, surviving human beings will curse the generations alive today for not following scientific advice in respect of decarbonising our economies to prevent catastrophic climate change.
Even a smart species like homo sapiens can be so collectively stupid as to DESERVE evolutionary deselection ( that is, extinction ).
1
It is absurd of the nyt to attempt to compare the dissemination of public health information in the US with that of China. You carry your Trump obsession to far.
1
As this virus inevitably spreads, I can't help but wonder whether we will see a black Sharpie used to reassure us about the low, low counts of infected victims.
4
Given that we have all these science-deniers and anti-vaxxers, actively encouraged by the lunatic rightwing in this country, no, we aren't ready.
5
Every year there's a different flu, the bird flu, this flu, that flu. Donald Trump's the president for God's sake we have bigger fish to fry.
One year ago, the Trump administration made major cuts to the CDC. Penny wise and pound foolish. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdc-to-cut-by-80-percent-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/
4
You’ve got to love the irony of white Americans completely melting down in fear over the risk of a foreign exotic virus causing destruction in a population.
Or is it BECAUSE white Americans are so acutely aware of the destruction they wrought on indigenous populations that they are so scared?
2
The editors would be well-served to take a glance stock markets before writing a line such as, "...stocks and oil prices are tumbling." The U.S. stock market has remained steady since the outbreak, with a minor drop one day, a minor gain the next. I'm not predicting the future impact of the virus on markets—a fool's game—but the editors need to report the present with some accuracy.
1
Why do so many viruses come out of China? Are these people dirty? Live in squalor? Eat anything?
1
Even morons understands that we're living in a new, deadly "Pathogen Era" be it viral or bacterial. Hospitals are especially dangerous as sepsis accounts for 30% of in-patient deaths, as well as, 30% of the institutional costs. Soon, elective surgery will be performed only on deserted islands after a two week quarantine period. This particular virus is as tricky as Nixon was and certainly as deceptive as Trump (asymptomatic incubation phase with contagion). Hand washing two hundred times a day with lye soap might help but otherwise stay away from crowded football stadiums and anywhere the idea of zoonosis seems plausible. No bat or alligator snuggling. Seriously though, everyone needs to be hand washing freaks and stop using dish towels to wipe your face.
January 30. 2020
Humanity that adapts to experience and develops resolve to live positive and learn will conquer its destiny for history and for the greater good will to all and for all times.
“That which does not kill us makes us stronger.”
― Friedrich Nietzsche
1
If coronavirus is spreading in US, how will the government quarantine millions of people....?? China can do it because it’s a dictature,
For now, what’s spreading is fear, fake news, rumors, because we know very little...
Trump is the absolute worst president to have in power during an epidemic and we are woefully unprepared after budget cuts to the agencies that could help us.
Add to this the number of Americans without health insurance, immigrants who will be afraid to come forward if they are sick, with the crappy leave time policies most Americans work under, and you've got sick people who won't or cannot seek care who are in the workplace preparing our food, ringing our groceries, carrying for the elderly in nursing homes.
Take your vitamins people. Wash your hands often.
3
The sickest I ever was in my life was the ONE year I worked in an elementary school where dozens of children were not vaccinated. I have a chronic illness (Multiple Sclerosis) and my immune system is weak anyway, and it felt like I had woken up in a nightmare.
I don’t know what the policy in other schools is, but teachers couldn’t have information regarding who was and wasn’t vaccinated. The school I was in also had a crazy policy about head lice, where kids could stay at school if they had nits in their hair. It was so gross. Obviously, when kids chronically have nits in their hair, we’re not dealing with people with good hygiene practices. The germs in this school just about killed me. That coupled with anti-vaxers made the environment one where people were always sick. Teachers and kids alike were often sick. It was maddening to not be able to make it through a week without getting coughed on, etc. I realized I could not remain in an elementary school environment after that year due to my health concerns, but it’s not just a problem for people with weak immune systems. I know several young teachers who are scared to be pregnant while teaching unvaccinated kids, and some of them have left the profession altogether because they want to keep their own children safe.
The thought of coronavirus spreading in elementary schools where viruses already run amok is very scary. I hope that schools will be ready for it, but based on my experience, I’m not confident.
87
@Corrie
It this date there is no medical defense for this Coronavirus.
What the schools, and media, need to do is use this opportunity to explain how a virus is transmitted to mouth, nose, or eyes and how important washing hands effectively and not to expose others by sneezing or coughing without covering mouth.
The biochemist in time will find a cure – perhaps.
4
@Corrie The principal at schools is measured by school attendance which is why he can overrule the school nurse and keep unvaccinated kids in the classroom. The real lesson from viral illness is that the public's health should prevail when there is a conflict between exclusion vs attendance.
10
@macman2 Yes, though it's not just pressure from above. Parents (who are understandably stressed at the thought of taking (often unpaid) time off from work to stay home with their ill children) also pressure schools to act as daycare centers when their children are contagiously ill. No win for the principal either way, which is why policy changes need to happen at the level of whoever is judging the principals.
2
Major media is reporting this story as an accidental transfer from an animal to human near a live animal food market.
Yet other reports have stated that the first reported victims could not be linked to this market. Few major media sources have mentioned that a level 4 containment lab for studying dangerous pathogens is located in Wuhan and has been doing work on pathogens carried by bats and the reason they are not symptomatic for long periods of time.
IF it turns out that this virus has escaped from this lab and was being engineered as a bioweapon, expect all hell to break loose.
Chinese already seem to be having issues with the way their government is responding to this crisis. Many reports out of China are saying that infection rates are far higher than what's been reported. Other reports say that cause of death has been misreported in many cases. The videos and posts coming from hospital workers show scenes that are not in line with official reports - dead in hallways, and signs of real panic.
3
Nope
Ready? Nope. I'm fully prepared, like most everyone else, which means unprepared, for chaos should there ever be a real pandemic. I'm just staying home! Work be damned.
I don't think the US, especially now with Donald "under staff the swamp" Trump, will ever be truly prepared for a real pan/epidemic. Where are the drugs being stockpiled, and how close to any serious population center are they and how will they be delivered? Where will they be distributed? At understaffed urban hospitals? Suburban schools, Walk-in Medical centers? (I expect those to collapse under such conditions) Firehouses, churches, temples, etc...?
CVS?
And who's gonna pay? Insurance gonna pay?
Is the WH gonna offer real information, or will they not be there at all? Will they be hiding like they have always done these 3+ years? Will POTUS tweet out the inane and ignorance, as is his SOP? Blame "others"? I dont expect much of anything good from the WH. Not even heartfelt consolation...more like scripted, crocodile tears. "Did I look sad enough? Ratings?"
Forget the distrust aspects...lets look at the infrastructure aspects. People dont want help due to their ill-placed mistrust, so be it...best luck to their family and neighbors. But who wants to bet the bulk of the the vaccine phobic will be the first to stampede for help?
What is the US infrastructure system for these things? Never heard about it, ever.
1
Thanks for this.
I've listened in disbelief as the CDC and WHO have come under fire by laymen with zero knowledge of science, medicine, politics or any historical sense of how epidemics of the past have played out.
I used to read Salon and do read The Guardian, and during the SARS outbreak there was incessant bitching about the "waste of money" and "waste of time" and "outrage" about having to be quarantined or inconvenienced for a moment at an airport. Then there was chortling about how right these armchair experts were when "no one died" (other than the 774 who did, of course).
We were to take their word for it. The WHO & CDC were the deep state intent on making a "mountain out of a molehill" just to "inconvenience" all of us and make money (?). These were not outliers...there were hundreds of posts to this effect.
It doesn't seem to have dawned on these posters that the only reason SARS was not more deadly was precisely because of the precautions taken. I'd hazard a guess that these helpful warriors would be the first to scream bloody murder if it was one of their loved ones who died or if a true pandemic broke out, even though they'd be the same refusing to take the precautions, get vaccinated, or abide by instructions designed to keep everyone safe.
We need to start tackling this mindset before the big one hits, and as someone who has read deeply and widely about the 1918 catastrophe, I share the CDC's belief that it's a matter of when it does, not if it does.
Im horrified by the amount and scope of misinformation in the comments sections, including mangled statistics, race-based pronouncements, conspiracy theories and much more.
4
Has anyone told "the president" about it yet? Because I'm sure he'll fix it with something fantastic.
1
Look beyond the current pandemic and the headcount stats. What are the implications to regional and world economies? Shanghai is virtually a ghost town during the Lunar New Year. That’s like NY Times Square being deserted on our calendar New Years Eve. But Shanghai has 24 million people, the population of all of Taiwan. It’s like nobody shopping in New York during the Christmas season - everyone will be using Alibaba or Amazon. Brick and mortar stores will be stressed and ignored. People don’t want to go to bars or restaurants. Try to drink a beer with a surgical mask on. They don’t come with horizontal sip zippers.
It is cold and flu season in Asia so everyone is wearing masks anyway, but people are not shopping or going to entertainment venues. Every cough or sneeze is suspected to be something worse than it is. This social, political and economic consequences of this coronavirus is hugely disruptive. We’ll see how China’s political propaganda machine spins this to redirect anger by its people to a non-Han Chinese scapegoat.
1
If the world has problems with locust infestation, and we can see them critters, imagine a locust-like invasion by microbes we can’t see. No. The world isn’t ready. All flights must be stopped coming out of China
1
I would urge the NYT and the WHO/CDC to pay extraordinarily close attention to VIETNAM. VIETNAM: neighbouring China does not have a national public health emergency response plan in place that addresses planning for multiple communicable diseases with pandemic potential (source: https://www.ghsindex.org/country/vietnam/). 100m people; the same wild animal markets; an even deeper public distrust than in China, exacerbated by social media mis/dis-information and outright fabrications by the Party to protect itself. Vietnam was recently tested with Avian Swine Flu and failed completely to manage this animal pathogen - with a far greater impact in Vietnam, than in China. The worrying statistic of a static two (2) cases - which is highly improbable; the fact of next to no ability to test reliably (PCR test is the only reliable method); no hospital or hospital systems in the country to manage any kind of an outbreak; no limitations on flights to and from China where there are currently more than 50,000 Chinese tourists in one city (Nha Trang) alone...all makes China the fuse and Vietnam the powder-keg. Of course we hope for mother nature, systems and science to send this virus back to the wild - but the world needs to focus attention immediately on Vietnam. One anonymous visit to Cho Ray hospital in HCMC or the National Children's hospital in Hanoi will be sufficient to highlight the issue.
2
Remember Climate Change and its side effects?
TOO LATE! The Climate has already changed and it is not for the better. WAKE UP!
4
Secretary Wilbur Ross says coronavirus will be good for Americans. "I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.".
How typical of an uncaring administration.
1
if Trump says he pays taxes, it’s government and Congress repeat his lies, or at least try to cover them, why should I believe him/government/congress this virus is under control? For god sake people, stop being naive, buy a mask, wash your hands and hope for a decent government to tell the truth.
Well, it’s not surprising a president who thinks a brain concussion is as simple as a headache (even though physicians find traumatic brain injury) dismantles agencies that may save hundreds of lives if there is a coronavirus attack in the United States.
Our president probably thinks coronavirus comes from eating corn brought in from China. No big deal, right?
2
“Almost two-thirds of airport screening tests fail to detect people with coronavirus, according to new research. A team from the London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine found that the current techniques are ineffective because of the incubation period and the poor sensitivity of thermal scanners.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/30/coronavirus-live-updates-china-death-toll-wuhan-evacuation-foreign-nationals-citizens-latest-news?page=with:block-5e329d4b8f086a28115a2283#block-5e329d4b8f086a28115a2283
Duh. I could’ve told you that. Like all airport so-called security, it’s all a show. Theater. Farce.
1
"In September 1918, war-weary Missourians were bracing for the coming storm: not another extreme weather event, but the lethal influenza epidemic steamrolling through the country’s eastern cities and military cantonments and bearing down on the Midwest.
"Tens of thousands of young people were dead; major cities were on the verge of collapse.
"Former Missourian Dr. Victor Vaughan, raised in rural Randolph County, headed the U.S. Army’s Division of Communicable Diseases.
"In October 1918, Dr. Vaughan concluded, 'If the epidemic continues its mathematical rate of acceleration, civilization could easily disappear from the face of the earth within a few weeks'”
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/
1
“It’s concerning that case reports are increasing, and increasing in a way that’s consistent with pretty efficient human-to-human transmission,” said Derek Cummings, a University of Florida expert in the spread of infectious diseases.
What we should really care is the fact that flu has killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States this winter
Be Vegan and happy
The pending coronavirus panic is *wildly* overblown.
To put things in perspective:
a) SARS had a fatality rate of 9.5%. The novel coronavirus has a death rate of 2.3%.
b) According to the CDC from 1 October (the beginning of the current flu season) through 18 January between 8,200 - 22,000 Americans have died of influenza. Yes, died.
So....if you're all a-tizzy about coronavirus?
Get a flu shot. Come out from behind your silly mask. And take a breath (so to speak).
This exasperating editorial and its illustration are contributing to misinformed panic.
One: "Regular" flu claims TENS of thousands of lives a year. Just in the US. Why is that not a daily headline? It's just flu. It's not new.
Two: Masks are close to useless, unless you are the infected person, in which case a perfectly fitting mask helps contain your germs. A mask will not stop you from becoming infected. Your eyes are still exposed, and the contagion is tiny.
Wash your hands. Cover your coughs and sneezes. Get a current flu shot to avoid the less dramatic flu. You know, the one that kills thousands every year.
Please be a voice of reason.
1
A vaccine for the coronavirus will be met by the Anti-science and Anti-vaxxer communities.
The Anti-science community, led by its lord and savior (both lowercase), Donald Trump, will drag its collective feet getting people immunized.
The Anti-vaxxer community, led by the vocal celebrity of Jenny McCarthy, Jim Carey, the late Don Imus, and many more, will suggest that the coronavirus vaccine causes more harm than the virus itself.
It's difficult fighting so many stupid people. And people will die during this fight because too many have been convinced by both of these communities that the cure is worse than the disease.
Corono virus is a lie by the left to get their environmental propaganda accepted. Climate change failed, now they want to lie about a 'deadly flu' that we haven't seen in a century. Not fooled.
Like the Alan Dershowitz impeachment argument, the Chinese never tell the truth and hide the facts. The number of people impacted is probably much higher as are the number of deaths. That leaves the rest if the world with the responsibility to close all flights from China and isolate those who’ve traveled there recently. Chinese comminities must be monitored as well.
It takes a tragedy like this deadly virus to shift the morning view of the NYT Editorial Board away from the Trumped-Up Bowl of Impeaches.
Both are infectious. One our bodies and the other our minds.
"Distrust" isn't confined to science.
2
“To its credit, the administration has managed to keep some of the world’s leading infectious disease experts in key roles at top agencies, including the C.D.C., the National Institutes of Health and the Food and Drug Administration. “
Wait a sec- you give credit to Trump for NOT getting rid of infectious disease experts at the CDC?
Just because the expectation is for Trump to do stupid things He should NOT be given credit just because he dod NOT do something stupid and dangerous.
If the world survives Trump, this should be a piece of really great chocolate cake.
Whether the world is ready or not, here is how you can give yourself a better chance to stay healthy: Protect yourself from secondary pneumonias.
Germs have an alarming way of piling on to a sick human. For ex., roughly 30,000 Americans die yearly of the flu. But they don't typically die of the flu virus itself--they die of a bacterial pneumonia that follows the flu. Their immunity has been driven low so that any onboard germs may multiply; their nasal passages & lungs provide goopy environments congenial to new germs.
This corona virus may supply the same circumstances. So have you gotten your pneumonia vaccination yet? (And of course, your flu vac?) Here's the CDC guidelines. Your insurance, will likely cover it. And for Pete's sake, if you have or suspect any chronic conditions, get this done--and soon enough for the vac's immunity to take effect!
CDC website:
"Vaccines help prevent pneumococcal disease, which is any type of illness caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria. There are two kinds of pneumococcal vaccines available in the United States:
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine or PCV13
Pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine or PPSV23
CDC recommends PCV13 for all children younger than 2 years old & people 2 years or older with certain medical conditions.
CDC recommends PPSV23 for all adults 65 years or older, people 2 through 64 years old with certain medical conditions, & adults 19-64 years old who smoke cigarettes."
3
The rapid spread of dangerous infectious diseases from wild animals to domestic animals to humans and across national borders and oceans to the far corners of the world is a direct result of overpopulation and globalized, short-sighted, neo-liberal economic policy, now the norm in most of the developed/ing world.
Simply put: if you want to buy cheap blue jeans and hand-held computers at Walmart, you will have to risk early death from pandemic illness.
There is not much we can do in the short-term about overpopulation but wait for natural population control events, such as widespread famine and war, to save us. Water under the bridge.
Globalization results from conscious choices made by politicians and the captains of industry in the last third of the 20th century to emphasize short-term profit over sustainable human welfare. Because it has brought higher standards of living to much - but not all - of what we used to call the 3rd World and has led to the exponential growth of stock markets and wealth disparity in the developed world, there will be much resistance among the wealthy and powerful to walking it back, though a few feasible limits on worldwide trade and travel might not ruin our lives. Horse out of the barn.
Elephant in the room: climate change, which will force all living things to try and adapt to the new normal, including viruses and bacteria in search of new hosts as the old hosts become extinct.
They are very clever at adaptation.
Are we?
Is Trump?
It's instances like this where our extreme polarization on politics and news sources will be to our detriment. Trump has zero credibility when it comes to relaying the facts. Fox News will say everything is fine, MSNBC will have breaking news that these are the end of days. Chaos ensues..
1
The reaction to the coronavirus is just so human. And please don't think I mean this in any but a matter-of-fact way. But, overall, countries have sprung into action to protect their citizens (and their power and economies) and find a vaccine. We do that. We tackle immediate problems and often succeed.
Watching reactions to the virus worldwide, I'm beginning to think we should refer to climate change as something like 'climata-virus' or the loss of biological diversity as 'diversi-virus'. Overpopulation by humans has already been called a plague by many, but we might actually take action if we described our teeming masses as 'homo-poxis'.
1
Instead of stealing and copying American intellectual property, the Chinese need to copy the US Food Safety System. Albeit stubbornness and culture are hard to overcome.
Until many avid supporters of our fearful and thoughtless leader themselves become infected and die from diseases like the coronavirus, I don't think they'll get the big picture being presented here so accurately and timely. Nor will the short-sighted GOP congress clue them in. Alas, a word to the unwise will never suffice.
Perhaps if authorities in China, the US, the UN, etc. actually had the best interests of relatively poor/disempowered folks in their hearts, those people would have more trust toward them. As it stands, those powers seem perfectly content to commit genocides and let people starve until their upper class friends are at risk of falling victim to an epidemic. Distrust and division between people is sowed by those at the top, because it benefits them.
1
People are terrified of high medical bills even with insurance and avoid doctors have no sick time at work so they have to go to work sick.
If it takes off here it will spread like wildfire
1
“Officials appear to have withheld crucial information — including that the virus was spreading between humans and that cases were not confined to the elderly or to people who visited the market believed to be at the outbreak’s epicenter — for weeks”
Well, I’d say you are lucky then that it wasn’t confined to the elderly or it would have taken much longer to identify its virility among humans. I vividly recall how long it took for medical scientists and U.S. society in general to recognize that HIV was not an act of a jealous god.
“But global health experts say that over all, the country’s response still leaves much to be desired.”
I’m still flabbergasted that 5k people died during the newest flu epidemic and no where anywhere in the USA was any type of isolation enforced. Am I to suppose that the flu is now the most reliant form of scything the young and the elderly?
“One would like to believe the president’s pronouncements.”
Wrong person. Wrong time.
If you want to believe in anything it is, adequent physical hygiene, handshaking and NOT going anywhere public while not feeling top-notch.
If you want to limit disease progression it is going to involve building homes for the homeless, a safety net for all persons, and most importantly of all else, a basic understanding that there is a difference between a truth and a the la-la land that so many people live in today.
Humanity will ignore its scentists and kneel before its theocrats as the scimitar of plague sweeps shoulder-high, and it won't be the first time. Fortunately this sweep won't eliminate us, but eventually we will join the T.Rex and the brachiosaur. Evolution does not favor the fittest, but rather the most adaptable.
"The CDC estimates at least 8,000 U.S. deaths from the flu so far this season."
should have been somewhere in this article.
Decades of the Republicans’ attacks on education, rational thought, science and facts may devastatingly come home to roost. The un-/dis-informed are likely to make decisions dangerous to themselves and those around them, as they have demonstrated with respect to vaccines. Unfortunately, the effects will hit all equally.
To halt the growth of the virus’ spread and allow the epidemic to burn itself out, health officials in China are going to have to cut the rate at which the germ is passing from person to person by more than half.
That could be done by quarantining anyone who’s ill, by closing down schools or workplaces or social gatherings, or eventually by administering a vaccine that does not currently exist.
Even under the most optimistic scenarios, Derek Cummings, a University of Florida expert in the spread of infectious diseases said, “a lot of control needs to take place.”
Chinese love face. They won't back down from the frontal assault by the Coronavirus. One can also be assured that they will keep the virus in check and won't let it spreading. And the anti-virus solution will soon be developed to stop the virus. The reputation of Mr. Xi Jinping is at stake. This is for sure.
The total death by Coronavirus so far is much less than those due to flu death in the US. With four times the population of US, the current death toll in China is insignificant. We sincerely hope this will be the case when the end is in sight..
The official death toll is now 170. That ‘official’ from China. I would guess that the real number is far higher.
"That's not a knife."
Ah the good old days when a virus killed tens of millions of the most fit humans across the globe. Unfortunately, enough humans survived that a mere 100 years later the most horrifying news is those surviving humans are, literally (old definition) burning the planet to cinders and poisoning the air and oceans.
But what are the headlines ?
"A nothing virus, does relatively nothing, nowhere."
Good job NYT.
Nice work.
What, you manage to slip in a weak link to global warming in there but no mention of how interconnected the world is now versus 20 years ago? The number of point to point airline flights going up since 2000 is several orders of magnitude more important in global pandemic risk than any weak global warming link.
1
"But Mr. Trump has a history of obscuring facts — especially scientific ones — to score political points"
Obscuring facts? He has a history of blatantly lying about them on a daily basis.
Funny how the expression "going viral" has been applied to mean interesting and noteworthy when the real world implication of "viral" is catching something you don't need or want with sickening or even fatal consequence.
A virus is like a knife to the social fabric revealing how naked and unprotected we all are. We depend on a constant flow of goods from China. Say China just stays home, not out of political high handed command, but sickness. Nobody on the streets in of several Chinese cities of millions is a sign of the drought coming here.
I agree that one danger with a viral outbreak is public distrust of authorities due to chronic, widespread and brazen governmental dishonesty.
Until Trump and the GOP took control of the American government, few would have doubted the integrity of CDC officials or question emergency CDC regulations in the face of Coronavirus.
But, having witnessed the blatant corruption of many American institutions by so many horrific Trump appointees,
Americans who pay attention might justifiably ask if Trump and his pals secretly bought a fat share in the big vaccine makers and treatment centers, and just told the Russians to scare up customers with never-checked Facebook news.
I wish it sounded crazy...
Systems reach maximum complexity one the verge of collapse.
Our entire civilization has grown rickety. We should do better.
I doubt we will.
We’ve have survived AIDS, avian flu, swine flu, Ebola, outbreaks of measles, we have not seen a pandemic and hopefully never will.
4
@George as my parents told me, in my home town every family knew a victim of Spanish flu. We lost 946 folks, in our then-small city.
Never say "never." It will happen. Viruses evolve faster than humans.
7
@George - You mean the human race has survived those things. PLENTY of people died way too early from all of those. You are flat wrong--we HAVE seen pandemics. AIDs was one. The flu of 1918 was another, even though very few people are still alive from that timeframe. Polio killed plenty of people.
5
One of the research teams calculated that in its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. That measure, called the epidemic’s “serial interval,” reflects the average span of time that elapses from the appearance of symptoms in one infected person to the appearance of symptoms in the people he will go on to infect. In the early stages of the outbreak, each infected person who became ill is estimated to have infected 2.2 others, according to the study in the New England Journal of Medicine.
That makes the new coronavirus roughly as communicable as was the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 50 million and became the deadliest pandemic in recorded history.
2
@Mary Elizabeth Lease, Your conclusions are wrong. I long for a Monty Python moment when Graham would dress up as a policeman and declare “This is getting silly!”
1
Chinese scientists racing to keep up with the spread of a novel coronavirus have declared the widespread outbreak an epidemic, revealing that in its early days at least, the disease’s reach doubled every week.
By plotting the curve of that exponential growth and running it in reverse, researchers reckoned that the microbe sickening people across the globe has probably been passing from person to person since mid-December 2019.
1
I do have distrust in science and institutions, but I have more distrust in the media.
2
6000 people have died of the regular flu this year in America alone. The corona virus mortality rate is about the same. If the rate was like MERS, 30%, we should be worried. 2% is just another flu season.
2
This part of the article should have been near the top:
We are placed at increased risk from the consequences of an “America First” worldview that treats global health security as unnecessary. In only three years, the Trump administration has eliminated the office of pandemic response, created after the Ebola epidemic of 2014; drastically scaled back the C.D.C.’s overseas outbreak prevention efforts, from 49 countries to just 10; and discontinued a surveillance program meant to detect new viral threats, like the coronavirus, before they make the leap into humans.
3
Some commentators here have noted that Trump is “anti-science”. He’s not. It's worse than that. Let me explain why.
Anti-science suggests that he has a particular position against or opinion about scientific matters. He doesn’t even have that. He’s largely uninterested in (or incapable of) forming an opinion in such matters. That would require some minimum level of intellectual ability or epistemological foundation.
Rather, he’s non-science, or ascientific (if those are even words), in the same way that a young child or animal is. We would never be tempted to say that a fish is anti-science – we would just say that it’s irrelevant to ask whether a fish is pro-science or anti-science. The same goes for Trump.
4
Some of the commenters sound like Greta Thunberg, urging us to eschew plane travel and take buses or trains. Last time I looked it is impossible to get from NYC to London or Paris or New Delhi or anywhere outside North and South America by train or bus. Who knew? Pretty much everyone, I think.
Also, if international flights are significantly curtailed that will mean disaster for travel- and tourism-related businesses and major attractions around the world, leading to significant shrinking of the economies of the cities and countries where the attractions are located.
Significant reductions in flights would also make it very difficult for companies to manage foreign subsidiaries or offices and conduct normal business relationships, another recipe for financial constriction.
Video-conferencing can do only so much, and would not really solve the problems noted above.
The answer is not to curtail plane flights, but to make their engines more efficient and less polluting.
1
@Mon Ray
Making some true statements doesn't mean you have solved the problem. One can say that preventing massive economic, health and social problems related to climate change would be dangerous. But what if we don't take measures soon? The downturn of agriculture will create famine and very, very expensive food. Many will starve; wars will begin, whole coastlines will collapse economically. Just the agricultural problems could ruin a country and start massive scenes of horror and despair! So what is your point? You miss the point! We sometimes have to sacrifice to save the species, the planet, the survival of people.
And that will stop the spread of am potential pandemic how?
1
I know the coronavirus is "news", but seriously, more than 8,000 people have died in the US alone during this current influenza season, for which there is a readily available vaccine that is substantially effective. We are worrying about the wrong thing. Fearmongering.
2
Why is all the media avoiding the elephant in the room? If the virus can be transmitted by those that have it but are unaware they have it, then it can not, repeat NOT, be controlled until a vaccine can be developed for it. Look for a geometric increase in the number of infections. And pray you don't get it.
2
@Alex Vine
The point you make is the one that the media...including the NYT...refuses to report let alone point out the implications as you have just done and I have been attempting to do for a week to no avail.
Now Trump seems also to be made accountable for the coronavirus spread? I don’t like him at all, but Trump doesn’t hold the communication monopoly in USA! So, he might try to keep the information for himself, or to make it look positive when it isn’t, but there are other institutions responsible for warning and protecting the Americans. Not everything’s going through Trump.
2
@Cristian Sirb
Don't worry it is under control.
I do believe the point is...
"...Mr. Trump has a history of obscuring facts — especially scientific ones — to score political points."
Trump has zero credibility with 80 percent of the American people.
The US public have never accepted the scientific viewpoint as religion usually gets in the way. 10 years of data shows that over 4 in 10 Americans think the planet is less than 10 000 years old. Hard to credit of course, but it also shows how desperately poor, and uncritical, public education is. How can such people possibly understand the cause and spread of viruses? If this gets a hold its going to be a bumpy ride.
1
I'm always happy to see the international community jump to work on problems like this. Despite a faltering start, hopefully this will lead to a quick containment of the problem.
It is sad that the United States can not equally apply itself to the tens of thousands of injuries and deaths each year that are due to acute lead poisoning, a situation that face masks, hand washing and even condoms cannot seem to halt.
1
After reading this article and several others, as well as quite a few comments, I think it's time to call for the historians and literature professors. They would tell you that hysteria always walks hand in hand with epidemics. They would remind people of that scene, in Huckleberry Finn, when fear of contagion supersedes compassion (read the comments, most of us are no Huck Finns). Certainly, they would suggest we reread Camus, whose description of a plague epidemic quite fits the times. Also, they'd remind us of Shakespeare, and poetry.
26
@Marie
I'm a poet and used to be a nurse.
Turning to literature and the work of historians is always good but it would be wise to include visits to the CDC's frequently updated coronavirus page in your reading.
30
For many Americans, the fear of medical expenses outweighs the illness itself.
183
In the 1940s, Aneurin Bevan, the founder of Britain's NHS, published In Place of Fear, the critical mobilising factor to obtain public support. Unfortunately the US Democratic Party has been too right wing ever to follow this approach (National health cover) that applies in every other developed country.
3
@Robert Yep, most of us can't even afford (out-of-pocket) to get sick and diagnosed (even with insurance), let alone think about the cost of getting well.
7
@G Rayns
more significantly Great Britain didn't have to contend with the AMA and Germany's bombing certainly help create perspective on priorities.
3
There are more than 27 million Americans who have no health insurance and millions more who are underinsured. It used to be about 45 million before the ACA.
A single night in a hospital observation unit can cost over $10,000, and that's not including doctors' fees and the cost of tests. So these people are incentivized to tough it until they become quite ill. In the meantime, if they are infected, they're spreading bacteria or viruses to the people they come in contact with. Which could be you or me.
To halt or at least slow an epidemic, people who are infectious need to be detected as early as possible and quarantined. Just as vaccination provides herd immunity, a medical system that allows everyone to seek care when they first develop symptoms would protect all of us, not just the people seeking care.
The rapid movement of people made possible by air travel, the declining effectiveness of antibiotics, and the increased likelihood of the spread of tropical diseases because of the climate crisis, all argue for a medical system that doesn't leave anyone out in the cold.
When Medicare for All is criticized as being too expensive, I doubt that the costs of expanding the reach of an epidemic are being taken into account.
259
@writeon1 Exactly! Also, another part of the problem in the US is that people will not only avoid doctors, they will continue to work while sick, and be required to go to school while sick. Schools and workplaces are so intent on minimizing absences and punishing workers, we get people with public contact jobs infecting people. During one flu epidemic, a vice principal kept harassing my son because I kept him home for his safety and that of his classmates. (we ultimately threatened legal action).
7
@writeon1
"too expensive" is a meaningless term unless put into good perspective. Yes, of course to support another 25 to 30 million people would cost more, every adult person will pay a tax for a med for all (MFA) program but everyone will pay less than they do now. Imagine the huge pool of insured! We eliminate the for-profit insurance companies which removes the high overhead because of duplicate and redundant and wasteful private systems. We also eliminate the profit and the dividends to investors in insurance companies. Billions saved! Then people will pay no med insurance premiums and save in the long run. Everything becomes standardized and you must keep seeing your doctors that you use now! Russia does it, europe does it, nordic countries to it and some of the happiest people in the world are in Finland, Denmark, etc. They use the system described above and the are healthy, happy and stable people. No worries about health care and its cost. Imagine us, allowing a profit motive system for such a critical part of life: med care. Why do you think we do not have MFA now? Our capitalistic system prevents it; greed prevents it; bribery prevents it.
8
The administration deserves zero credit for the infectious disease experts at CDC. Ninety-nine percent of these are career scientists who are devoted to protecting the public's health. They do so in spite of the Trump administration, and not because of the administration.
312
@Edwin
Yes but how many votes did the 'experts at the CDC' receive in the 2016-2018 elections?
What, if any, independent Article II executive office of the President of the United States of our constitutional republic can they do to protect the 'public's health'?
2
@Edwin
I realize that almost every article in the NYT, especially the opinion pieces, is supposed to take every opportunity to bash Trump for whatever he does or do not do in any given situation.
If it is possible to set politics aside for just a moment, please consider what we as individuals can do about the coronavirus outbreak.
Using face masks can fill two important functions:
1. They generally reduce the number of virus particles one inhales, not by 100%, but by a meaningful amount.
2. Masks also reduce the number of virus particles expelled by infected persons when they cough or sneeze, not by 100% but by a meaningful amount. This is why you see pictures of infected patients wearing masks even in isolation wards, to reduce the chances they will infect others.
Thought for the day: If you are on a plane or train or subway and your seatmate starts sneezing or coughing, put on your own face mask and offer your seatmate one, too.
Due to the coronavirus outbreak I have started carrying several masks with me when I travel in order to deal with just such eventualities.
And, while washing one's hands frequently with soap and water is a good idea, it isn't always feasible, so be sure to carry pocket/purse-size bottles of hand sanitizer or those tiny packets that are even smaller.
8
@Mon Ray you do realize that Trump slashed programs aimed at keeping bugs out of the US? Also slashed internal surveillance initiatives?
7
To achieve a comfortable and healthy life for all organisms on this planet we would do better with fewer humans.
Whenever animals are crowded problems develop. Evironmental degradation, disease, food shortages, fighting, etc.
We can accomplish this over a few decades using some proven methods. First, educate women. This leads to fewer births and healthier children. We now have excellent birth control so people can still enjoy intimate love relations. Etc.
When the our government took an active role in educating people about cigarettes, smoking decreased dramatically. Cigarettes were never banned, people were just finally told the truth!
2
It is too soon to say this with accuracy, but the early statistics suggest that this Coronavirus is no worse than the annual influenza that kills some 30,000 Americans each year. And, it will likely be possible to get a corona flu shot shortly. Less than 2% of unvaccinated victims are dying if the stats are right. Probably the immuno-compromised, like our local flu.
1
The amazing professionals at the NIH saved my spouse's life using cutting edge knowledge and procedures to cure a rare, life threatening disease. I got to see first hand what smart government initiatives can do.
Trump and his GOP stalwarts would have us dismantle all of it, turn it over to ignorant and dividend-crazy investors putting their money into corporations run precisely to return "value" to those selfsame investors. Lives like my spouses are so much collateral damage in such a blind system, since her life or death would be immaterial to the bank accounts at issue.
The coronavirus outbreak has the attention of the investors now, of course, since a worldwide plague would not be especially nice to the global economy (We know just how much the stock market dipped, down to the hundredths, while the names of the dead are known only to their grieving families.)
Trump, a leader with subzero credibility, has gotten out his sharpie and scribbled that everything is under control, by which he means, "vote for me." No help coming from that quarter.
We're all in big trouble, but not nearly so much as the sick, injured, and vulnerable among us should the libertarian fever dream of a neutered government serving only money and those who possess it. Thank God my wife got help in time.
9
Trump. Yes. Someone you can really depend on in a crisis. ("Now, how can I make money off this epidemic? Maybe go into the mask business? Score some political points, at least...")
But the Chinese (Communists) have historically - and with this healthcare crisis - suppressed information and made it more difficult for doctors and hospitals to share information and control the spread of SARS, and now this new Coronavirus epidemic. Their motive? Money! Trade. Tourism. (Sound familiar?)
And, meanwhile back in the jungle...this is when a functional national healthcare system in the US - infrastructure, medical training, affordable (not rip-off) healthcare - might come in handy.
"Repeal and replace!" Our "conservative" Republican lawmakers (with great, free healthcare themselves) have the situation under control...
2
The world is now ready for the Wuhan Corona Virus (WCV) but the world was not ready for the speedy spread of the virus. So far even though China (C) is currently taking the right steps for containing the WCV, it did not nip the virus in the bud early enough.
I disagree that there is distrust in science and institutions. There is unjustified panic because how fast the outbreak is spreading. Scientists are not gods and no previous Corona virus infection does accurately mirror the current WCV.
There are a lot of unknowns right now and partly because of lack of isolated virus from patients for study. There is a report from Australia's Nobel laureate Peter Doherty Institute of Infectious Diseases in Melbourne, has a WCV in the laboratory. If the virus is made available for research by others who have the appropriate BSL 4 facilities and antiviral candidates to test for treatment against WCV.
The Edi board should not jump to conclusions like distrust of Science. Give Scientists especially virologists a chance to play a role in eradicating the WHC. C has plenty of public health officials and medically trained personnel but considering that C had recently a swine virus that wiped out 1000s of pigs and now this. There is a global shortage of Veterinary and human Virologists and that is a primary reason why the WCV infections will get worse before it gets better. Those of us who know how viruses jump across species will tell you viruses are too clever for human comprehension.
3
China should have put Wuhan under quarantine weeks ago, but they waited too long, till the virus spread to all their major cities. The reason for the delay, wishful thinking and fear of social and economic disruption. Now the virus is being transmitted from person to person in all Chinese provinces.
The rest of the world should be putting China under quarantine. That will limit further spread of this infection and give us a much better chance of containing it. No one in, no one out without a strict two to four week quarantine. But of course this will not be done. Every one knows that money is more important than lives. A potential death toll in the millions is unlikely but still possible, and governments bury their heads in the sand.
3
"Distrust in science and institutions". Not really. It's more "distrust in institutions" particularly, the governing class and its attendant media. Most people are fine with "hard" science. The distrust of institutions and attendant media comes from observation of how the "preferred narratives" of these "institutions" evidently impact the interpretation of the "science" their attendant media attempts to get the general public to swallow. See Iraq War, Afghan War Libyan intervention, African military presence etc... domestic news coverage of the 2008 financial crisis added to recent coverage of institutionally preferred political candidates presented like unappetizing must eat vegetables before unruly children. "No socialist candidates for you!" All this has made it pretty clear on most days and most subjects the US media serves its role as "mouthpiece" of America's establishment as well as China's People's Daily serves its own.
In the case of the "mysterious" corona virus suspicion of US media reports and analysis produced have to be read with an eye to the US media tendency to use any China news (and that news is certainly carefully selected) to score cheap points in the "systems competition" the NYT and several other US media outlets have several times proclaimed the US is in with China.
In fact, it's hard to disentangle the US coverage of the crisis from its need to constantly hammer China.
So. Yes. Uphill road ahead for the "institutions".
2
“The Chinese market at the center of the deadly coronavirus outbreak sold live animals — including wolf pups, foxes, rats and peacocks — to eat. Other wildlife sold at the market included crocodiles, giant salamanders, snakes, porcupines and camel meat. The wild animals were among 112 items that were peddled at the Huanan Seafood Market in the central city of Wuhan,. “Freshly slaughtered, frozen and delivered to your door,” said the price list for the vendor, “Wild Game Animal Husbandry for the Masses.”
Hindus and Buddhists strongly believe Karma “word meaning the result of a person's actions as well as the actions themselves. It is a term about the cycle of cause and effect. According to the theory of Karma, what happens to a person happens because they caused it with their actions”.
All of our actions, including our choice of food, have Karmic consequences. By involving oneself in the cycle of inflicting injury, pain and death, even indirectly by eating other creatures, one must in the future experience in equal measure the suffering caused.
6
@N.G Krishnan
and the live virus's role in "...the cycle of inflicting injury, pain and death, even indirectly by eating other creatures, one must in the future experience in the future experience in equal measure the suffering caused."
and now about the suffering of broccoli when it's life is cut short.
1
Alas for arrogant mankind. Nature has its own weapons to defeat those creatures who would destroy it. Viruses are a potent component of the arsenal and we have seen their ravages for as long as humans have existed. In our instant-gratification age where we pomp ourselves overmuch about how extraordinary our medical knowledge is, we see the shabby reality of our beliefs and will face our demise, individually and as a race, with a rather poor ability to acquiesce to death.
2
@Tournachonadar, No, it’s like getting a cold to most people. Hardly biblical.
1
In addition to the duplicity of the Chinese authorities, we have the dissembling of our current White House administration. They lie so carelessly, casually and continuously about even the most mundane topics it's hard to see how they will handle any potential problems with the forthrightness needed for a pandemic.
On top of that, we have the discrediting of our science community for the sole purpose of massaging the president's ego, and massive cuts to science and research.
It's not use raising the alarm when it seems to fall on so many deaf ears.
3
The US sure isn't. I tried to buy a face mask, here in Syracuse , just in case
EVERY Walgreen here is out of stock. That is every
Before you hypothesize about distrust: . Write about getting more face masks made, here or in Canada
I would not import them from China -
3
@Sari - The problem is that with "no Chinese goods coming into our country," we will quickly start running out of a great many things. We are far too interconnected with the rest of the world for this type of isolation to be possible.
For instance, as just one example, there are some critical drugs that, even if made in the U.S., rely on ingredients that are only produced by one or two factories in India or China. Shut off the supply lines and our ability to make those drugs disappears.
Globalization has made us far too vulnerable. Every aspect of our lives relies on the global machine running smoothly. The disruption and domino effect from suddenly shutting down China's part in that would likely be as bad, if not worse, than the coronoavirus itself.
7
This is most likely far worse than we have been lead to believe.
How about no Chinese goods coming into our country and how about no flights coming in from anywhere in China and no flights going into anywhere in China. We cannot, nor should we risk the health and welfare of our citizens. Don't let trump get away with calling this a slight cold the way he dismissed our servicemen suffering brain damage as just a headache.
2
@Sari , Well, this is the chance we’ve been waiting for. To stand on our own two feet.
1
Of course trump has gutted American programs designed address the threat of global pandemics. It has only been three years, and there almost nothing his evil has not touched.
6
The world is ready for the Wuhan Corona Virus (WCV) but the world is not ready for the speedy spread of the virus. So far even though China (C) is currently taking the right steps for containing the WCV, it did not nip the virus in the bud in the epidemic.
I disagree that there is distrust in science and institution. There is unjustified panic because how fast the outbreak is spreading. Scientists are not gods and no previous Corona virus infection does accurately mirror the current WCV.
There are a lot of unknowns right now and partly because the isolated virus from patients for study. There is a report from Australia from the Nobel laureate Peter Doherty Institute of Infectious Diseases in Melbourne, has a WCV in the laboratory. If the virus is made available for research by others who have the appropriate BSL 4 facilities and antiviral candidate to test for treatment against WCV.
The Edi board should not jump to conclusions like distrust of Science. Give Scientists especially virologists a chance to play a role in eradicating the WHC. C has plenty of public health officials and medically trained personnel but considering that C had recently a swine virus that wiped out 1000s of pigs and now this. There is a global shortage of Veterinary and human Virologists and that is a primary reason why the WCV infections will get worse before it gets better. Those of us who know how viruses jump across species will tell you they are often too clever for human comprehension.
3
Oh, this is reassuring:
“...Nor will the consequences of an “America First” worldview that treats global health security as unnecessary.
In only three years, the Trump administration has eliminated the office of pandemic response, created after the Ebola epidemic of 2014; drastically scaled back the C.D.C.’s overseas outbreak prevention efforts, from 49 countries to just 10; and discontinued a surveillance program meant to detect new viral threats, like the coronavirus, before they make the leap into humans....”
MAGA - not.
7
Is the world ready for any epidemic?
No.
5
Hysteria is driving the hysteria. No one will even remember what Coronavirus is in 3 months.
By the way, opinions like this are driving the hysteria and selling newspapers.
2
When a new virus is on the loose, it's amazing how I never hear "thoughts and prayers" for a solution. Also interesting is how we start hearing "vaccine" in a favorable light when it comes to trying to stop a new epidemic.
6
if this new strain of coronavirus cannot be contained in China and somehow moves into the U.S. population, the dire consequences of prioritizing multinational corporations over people will be laid bare.
this country is led by a political party which has worked to a) slash health investment, from personal healthcare to healthcare research; b) foment public distrust of science and medicine for its own gain; c) alienated and punished the urban centers which have the highest population density; d) isolated the U.S. from its allies and weakened the UN and other global bodies; e) used lies, deceit and hyper partisanship to score political points and maintain power.
given all of the above, i cannot imagine a president or a political party less prepared to deal with a potential global pandemic if it arrives. god help us.
11
There are a lot of commenters here with no apparent expertise in the medical field who are bandying about statistics concerning the transmission rate of the corona virus. Supposedly, the Coronavirus is twice as infectious as the flu (another corona virus). The fact is that no one knows for sure how infectious this new virus is.
The one thing we do know is that it attacks the respiratory system and kills the old and immunologically compromised. The 1918 pandemic killed young healthy people, which is why it was so deadly. It almost killed my 2 year old father.
So, we don’t know how infectious this virus is, but we do know that like the flu, the only people who will die from it are the old and people whose immune systems have been suppressed.
There is no need to panic. I remember the Swine Flu panic. Millions of dollars were spent for nothing. SARS only killed 800 people. This is not the 1918 flu. The press has an obligation not to contribute to hysteria, but stories about new viruses sell.
5
The "flu" is an influenza virus. Influenza viruses are not corona viruses. SARS and this latest corona virus disease are not caused by influenza viruses and are not "flu."
2
@Bathsheba Robie, But but Trump! Will he be blamed for the common cold?
1
@Bathsheba Robie right, who cares about all those old and immune compromised people? Very thoughtful and helpful comment.
2
Global warming has only a tangential effect on the prevalence and spread of disease. A warmer earth provides a hospitable environment for harboring and maintaining all organisms. An epidemic and its worst case outcome, a pandemic, is preventable through open, honest and concerned scientific communications between nations. These latter points are obviated by the leadership in principal countries such as the US and China who are vying for economic and political dominance. We, the world population, is at constant risk with the likes of Trump and Xi at the respective helms of their ships of state.
7
@ladps8, So how come these flus and viruses attack us in the winter then?
1
Unfortunately "the world" is a very big place that a pandemic makes small remarkably quickly. The question "is the world ready" is clearly rhetorical.
If Trump said the virus is under total control in our country, I'd be very, very concerned since he is ordinarily under-informed and generally dishonest. Only someone who routinely neglects details communicates judgements of that type. He's exactly the type of leader one does not want in a real crisis.
23
China's wild meat markets should have been permanently closed. Of course, there would have been illicit trade but perhaps not in congested settings. Illicit trade would make it hard to source viral appearances but perhaps not. Chinese researchers had already identified this virus in bats and found people with antibodies.
Ultimately, there will be a pandemic in part because of excessive human population density.
15
One of the fears surrounding the threat of this Coronavirus is that it is new and its potential impact is yet unknown.
Lack in familiarity with this particular virus plays a large part in our fears. Such is not the case with the Seasonal Influenza virus which affects bout a billion people per year and can account for deaths in the vicinity 650,000 yearly.
A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease. Influenza is a yearly pandemic of an old disease and therefore does not raise the fears a new one does. It is so familiar to many that they don't even bother to get vaccinated for it.
9
I realize that almost every article in the NYT, especially the opinion pieces, is supposed to take every opportunity to bash Trump for whatever he does or do not do in any given situation.
If it is possible to set politics aside for just a moment, please consider what we as individuals can do about the coronavirus outbreak.
Using face masks can fill two important functions:
1. They generally reduce the number of virus particles one inhales, not by 100%, but by a meaningful amount.
2. Masks also reduce the number of virus particles expelled by infected persons when they cough or sneeze, not by 100% but by a meaningful amount. This is why you see pictures of infected patients wearing masks even in isolation wards, to reduce the chances they will infect others.
Thought for the day: If you are on a plane or train or subway and your seatmate starts sneezing or coughing, put on your own face mask and offer your seatmate one, too.
Due to the coronavirus outbreak I have started carrying several masks with me when I travel in order to deal with just such eventualities.
And, while washing one's hands frequently with soap and water is a good idea, it isn't always feasible, so be sure to carry pocket/purse-size bottles of hand sanitizer or those tiny packets that are even smaller.
9
@Mon Ray As if shutting down valuable parts of the government isn’t relevant to the topic at hand!
2
@Mon Ray Please allow me to point out that the "bashing" of this "president" is completely justified. This is an article about possible pandemic and Trump eliminated the office of pandemic response. There is so much to bash and it's all legitimate.
1
Plague maps throughout history show similar patterns. Seemingly healthy people flee the infectious area, taking the disease with them to infect new populations. We've added air travel and fast trains to the mix, so the spread can happen faster and further. Something like this seems inevitable, this time, next time, etc. Maybe it takes the die-off of 2% of the world population to convince us all that we're on a tiny livable speck - together - in the middle of a vast universe.
9
@Barbara Lee And as harsh as it may be Mother Nature has shown time and time again that these things need to occur for the long term survival of species. What we have seen from the overuse of antibiotics is that our ability to naturally combat infections has been weakened and that the bugs are mutating to become more difficult to treat.
We talk about all of the issues that we think have contributed to global warming but refuse to acknowledge and address the #1 cause - population growth. As we made it possible for people to live longer it means that we have more people buying and using products, more people driving, more people consuming resources. We can, and should, work to reduce material the use of fossil fuels, to significantly reduce the need for plastics, etc. But unless we control population growth none of this will matter in the end.
2
This is a pandemic.
It is appearing all over the world.
Many countries and commercial enterprises are halting operations with and in China.
Russia just announced a border closure.
The Chinese economy is being destroyed.
The Chinese Communist Party, which attempted to cover all this up and deny and stonewall, is now under the gun.
What millions of people who tried to bring democracy to China could not accomplish a virus will.
This is the end of China as we knew it.
7
The Chinese economy is not being destroyed by any means. The rest of the world had better hope that China does get this outbreak under control before it gets much worse. The world economy is under pressure, and if supply chains are significantly disrupted for many months the entire world will slip into a recession. It's a big world, but we're in this together.
We had all better hope that this is not the end of China as we know it. If you think that that the collapse of china's government will result in democracy, instead of chaos, a massive death toll and a worldwide depression, you're fooling yourself.
27
Europe wasn't ready for the Bubonic Plague in the 1400s. The world wasn't ready for the Spanish Flu that killed 50 million people in 1918. And today in 2020 we're not ready for the global epidemic of Coronavirus, which started in China in December and is spreading like wildfires in Australia. Lord only knows how mankind will survive this new virus.
2
I understand the new Coronavirus has yet to be formally named according to reports. How about calling it the Trump Disease? His symptoms spread pretty fast. I can't imagine how many people are truly emotionally suffering the last three years and now this?
Besides the predictable preceding writing, there is the fact of people's concern. I'm reading about it here and I don't watch the sensational television. I'm cool as can be. I bought a few boxes of masks to share, bar soap, and hand sanitizers, and I'm not panicking at all. I'm simply being prepared, and you should know that the mask hording could be doctors offices as well, and I plan on sharing my masks with neighbors and my doctors office. Relax about what you refer to as a panic. It puts demands on manufacturing who recognize the need, can estimate needed production requirements, and figure in production lead times and distribution times and they will meet demand, a necessary function. So any panic will actually better prepare the public. I have 250 regular masks and some N95 NIOSH masks for myself I've gathered since a serious illness last Spring. I plan on sharing my "Horded" masks. That's why I bought so many, because there are always more people unprepared.
7
I believe the federal government would respond to a serious epidemic. However, under the Trump administration, I'm concerned the response would be asymmetrical. As we've seen before, Trump constantly seeks to reward loyalists and punish dissenters. This is the story of disaster relief in the Trump era. Even rules for climate mitigation are designed to exclude non-Trump states. California is begrudgingly receiving funds only because the Trump administration couldn't find a way to exclude them.
This is how I suspect coronavirus would play out in our present moment. If the outbreak occurred in Texas, state officials would receive fawning attention and limitless funds. If the outbreak occurred in California, the response would be late, reluctant, and inadequate. Hurricane Harvey versus Hurricane Maria. And of course, universally dishonest throughout. "Best disease response ever," as people die in unnecessary numbers. That's what I expect from our federal government right now.
Fortunately, I live in a state with robust health services and strong public support. I'm relying on local government in an emergency, not Trump. Putting your life in Trump's hands seems about as smart as sticking your hand in a blender. I trust that man in an emergency less than I trust board walk bottle games. I seriously hope some else is in charge when disaster strikes.
17
I realize that almost every article in the NYT, especially the opinion pieces, is supposed to bash Trump for whatever he does or do not do in any given situation.
If it is possible to set politics aside for just a moment, please consider what individuals can do about the coronavirus outbreak.
Using face masks can fill two important functions:
1. They generally reduce the number of virus particles one inhales, not by 100%, but by a meaningful amount.
2. Masks also reduce the number of virus particles expelled by infected persons when they cough or sneeze, not by 100% but by a meaningful amount. This is why you see pictures of infected patients wearing masks even in isolation wards, to reduce the chances they will infect others.
Thought for the day: If you are on a plane or train or subway and your seatmate starts sneezing or coughing, put on your own face mask and offer your seatmate one, too.
Due to the coronavirus outbreak I have started carrying several masks with me when I travel in order to deal with just such eventualities.
And, while washing one's hands frequently with soap and water is a good idea, it isn't always feasible, so be sure to carry hand sanitizer in the pocket/purse size bottles or in those tiny packets that are even smaller.
6
We need to worry. In a world of global climate change there should be some concern. What about changes to the animal kingdom that affects interactions with humans? Lyme Disease is one example. Rising rates of frightening mosquito born viruses are another. Will a warmer planet increase rates of mutation? Scientists talk about pathogens "jumping from animal to human species" but how has climate change caused this calamity? We cause our politics. Climate change will affect any virus, any vector, and in the end, we must pay attention.
5
The world is ignoring this at its peril. The comparison to to influenza is a fallacy and ignores the seriousness of this epidemic. Yes millions get the flu but it has only a 0.1% mortality, compared to 2% for corona virus by current analysis. That is 200 times as deadly....also up to 20% of victims have severe respiratory issues, far greater than for influenza. The number of institutions maintaining that we should be more concerned about influenza are ignoring the porous nature of borders once this becomes a worldwide phenomenon.
22
Of course we are not ready and we will never because we refuse to make tough decision when something like happens,
We have a press who to focus on hype and sensation, world health organisation that wait to long to act but what worst if we know nothing about this but allow people to travel freely, is doing a quick scan at the airport an answer NO, put anyone who arrived from these areas in quarantine, so what a few people lose their rights for a couple weeks, better then the rest of us dying from them.
People rush to buy medical supplies they may not need or worst they do not know how to wear a mask correctly, kind of defeats the purpose of wearing a mask if you have it on wrong
6
What comes to mind for me here is that in any emergency/unknown situation trust in the government, trust in the information provided and action taken are vital. Problem one is that has been lost here at home and in most of the world. My second take on this is that science/health care/prevention and education are very important than ever before because of the very rapidly changing world we live in. Problem two is we are cutting back and mocking this at least here in the US.
6
As someone stated earlier, those numbers seem scary until you consider the flu season we experience in the U.S. every year. For the 2019-2020 flu season to date, the CDC reports 140,000 flu-related hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths. Millions more flu cases did not result in hospitalization or death. And this flu seasons is about average compared to the last 10 years. Coronavirus news might sound scary, but the flu season we experience every year is many times worse.
The media is blowing this WAY out of proportion.
6
@aunt3x
What if the number of cases becomes the same and the mortality of corona virus is 200 times as great??? What would you say to 30,000 deaths at least? This is deadly serious.
6
@Phillygirl Yes, and also because it is a novel virus, most people are susceptible to it. It is very contagious as well.
3
@aunt3x
Numbers alone do not quantify anything. This virus has a 2-3% death rate, compared with .02% of most influenza. It's also spreading, potentially more quickly, than influenza. And thousands of people are still in the hospital. What happens when the hospitals fill and people need assistance breathing?
6
Can we please keep this issue non-political? Yes, I know you hate Trump. But right now he's what you've got so we all need to work with the government that we have.
That said, I don't understand why flights from China have continued into the US. Well I do understand why; interruption of global commerce, profits, airline revenues, tourism dollars etc. But taking people's temps at originally 5 airports expanded to 20 doesn't cut it. For sure once we learned this virus can be transmitted by asymptomatic people we needed to have rethought this.
Do we have a policy for those returning to the US from China? I know Middlebury College in VT has students in China that they are planning on bringing back to VT; will they be quarantined? Or are they just going to have their temps taken and told to stay in their rooms, wink wink.?
We're not getting a lot of info here in the US. While I don't want to see sensationalist coverage and fear mongering, we do need the facts. Some are just discounting this virus as so many get the flu and the death rate from that is high. But they are forgetting that there is a vaccine for the flu one can obtain. In addition, the mortality rate for the Wuhan virus appears to be much higher than for the flu. If people don't know the facts they will underestimate it which is also an issue.
As for masks, I don't think it's a bad thing at all to acquire masks but one needs to know what type, how/when to use them and what number is reasonable vs hoarding.
7
This is why it’s a concern, his policy doesn’t make us safer, or help to address any pandemic if it becomes one in the U.S.:
...”Nor will the consequences of an “America First” worldview that treats global health security as unnecessary.
In only three years, the Trump administration has eliminated the office of pandemic response, created after the Ebola epidemic of 2014; drastically scaled back the C.D.C.’s overseas outbreak prevention efforts, from 49 countries to just 10; and discontinued a surveillance program meant to detect new viral threats, like the coronavirus, before they make the leap into humans.”
15
Trump, to his credit has managed to pick individuals who actually support the public health mission in top positions at the CDC, FDA, NIH, etc., unlike his choices at the EPA, Interior, and most of his cabinet. That is the only sliver of hope that pronouncements on what to do about this growing epidemic should be heeded.
It is so sad that the major lesson after three years of the Trump Administration is that there is no safety net, that you can expect to be lied to, and that you are on your own. Thank God for the ever dwindling number of journalists out there and good luck to all of us fighting the coronavirus.
10
World popn 7.7 billion.
Coronavirus deaths 170.
7700 infected so far.
So 1 death per 45 million people.
Cancer deaths 9.6 million in 2018. An estimated 100 million people have cancer.
But no panic there.
11
@Arturo, You have to be the only person in the world that believes Chinese reporting figures are accurate. Most suspect the Chinese have hidden this outbreak as long as possible and are only reporting numbers which their government has approved. I would not be surprised the numbers are understated by two orders of magnitude.
1
Cancer is not contagious and generally doesn’t kill people in a matter of days. Sheesh....
3
@Arturo Eff
look at the rate of increase in confirmed cases and then try to remain sanguine.
In the US alone, 8,200 people have died so far and 140,000 people have been hospitalized of the flu during the 2019-2020 season according to preliminary estimates from the CDC. So to put this in perspective, according to the article I should be more worried about one hundred coronavirus deaths (in a country of almost 1.4 billion) than what is happening here with a population of a little more than 300 million & where we vaunt ourselves with the most modern & the best health care in the world?
12
@Michael, Do you really believe the Chinese would attempt to quarantine 20 million people if there were only ~ 200 deaths? Do you really believe anything the Chinese report is an accurate representation of the truth?
It’s the percent chance of death not the hard numbers! Coronavirus is 200 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE DEATH THAN FLU. Why are people so scientifically illiterate?
1
Everything Mr. Sorensen wrote was true until he referred to our medical care system as the most modern and best in the world. A huge percentage of Americans have no health care at all. If corona were to impact the US, they'd rush to emergency centers which would be overwhelmed in a matter of hours. Worse yet, our president would likely refer to victims as "slackers" similar to the way he denigrated our soldiers who suffered from the Iran attack as mere headaches. In normal times and with a normal president, he'd be out front calming the nation, but our loser-in-chief is too busy playing golf and looting to worry about the common man. If the disease hit democratic areas of the US, there would likely be no help at all from the white house.
1
Microbes from malaria to plague to small pox to flu and the common cold have been farming their human domestic host animals for many millennia all over the world.
And the really smart and wise ones spread far and wide and often without killing too many of their human hosts. Killing human hosts before infecting other humans or intermediary animal hosts is really bad for biological business success.
Because the point of evolutionary fit DNA biological natural selection survival is to leave the most best adapted offspring over time and space.
Running ahead of our vaccines and antibiotics and medical paraphernalia is a constant struggle. Becoming a natural part of our biotic regime from birth to death is their ultimate victory.
3
We will know in a couple of weeks as to the real mortality rate of the illness as the 14 day incubation period runs its course. My suspicion is that we have gotten lucky in regards to the mortality rate. Distrust of institutions runs deep not just in the USA. In the UK, news, this week, of a disabled man who starved to death at home because his benefits were cut seemed to hardly raise an eyebrow. When we are unable to care for our weakest, we might as well not even have institutions.
9
@Reasonable
"... the 14 day incubation period..." is a guess as are all the other pronouncements at this point.
1
As far as distrust in science is concerned, there is ample reason to be extremely wary of the Chinese scientific and medical institutions and their professional and ethical standards of conduct.
This outbreak comes on the heels of a major recent scandal involving human experimentation by Chinese researchers using genomic modification (CRISPR-Cas9) in an attempt to suppress vertical HIV transmission - a non-existent problem in China, but one the Chinese state bears considerable financial exposure to in their African client states.
One therefore has to wonder what other covert virology research programs are underway, especially involving the same family of coronaviruses responsible for the earlier SARS outbreak.
If this novel virus -- never before seen in nature -- had in fact jumped from an animal host to humans, one would have expected to see a more dispersed initial pattern of spread. The single point source identified - one local live animal market - seems suspect.
It is more likely that a spatial cluster of multiple such markets within the region would have served as entry vectors, and that one also would find sporadic cases within the rural population living in proximity to the reservoir species.
On the other hand, a single virology research lab seems like a more plausible point source, if that is in fact the actual epidemiological pattern here, and the ensuing lockdown would make far more sense as a containment protocol.
9
No, my take is that the world is not ready, but it is in denial.
Disease outbreaks have most likely been a regulating factor of Nature's since before first humans stood up.
We can do much but my personal thoughts are that another "Spanish flu" will happen again and again. Man will never have the last word against Nature.
13
The cases get reported from the pointy end. The 4500 proven cases are those are sick enough to tolerate waiting in line at a Wuhan hospital, or who are seriously ill enough to get emergency services. There are probably tens or hundreds of thousands of other cases going under the radar.
Interestingly, a planeload of 200 Japanese evacuees arrive in Japan yesterday, all were tested for the virus, and of those 3 were detected to have the virus. Only 1 of them showed symptoms, and the other 2 showed no symptoms. If the population of Wuhan infected at that same rate, that would be 150,000 cases (out of 10 million population). If death rate were 150, that would be 1/10 of a percent.
There are still many unknowns, but I predict that within a month or two the majority of Wuhan will have developed resistance, spreading the slow of new cases in Wuhan, followed similarly by the rest of of China in 3 months, and the USA in 6 to 9 months (will the election be postponed?).
There is really no quarantine policy that can slow the spread that wouldn't result in even more deaths from a breakdown in services and supply lines - which depend upon international trade. Vaccines won't be fast enough this time, but we that might improve in future outbreaks - better to focus on vaccines than spread unfocused panic.
3
Any developments made in the US will cost the rest of the world untold favors to Mr Trump.
Humanity will be sold dearly to those willing to pay the political ransom for medical help.
4
“ One would like to believe the president’s pronouncements. But Mr. Trump has a history of obscuring facts - especially scientific ones - to score political points.”
Trump is scientifically illiterate and that willful ignorance encompasses the field of medicine. His varying pronouncements over the years about the necessity of childhood vaccinations, have never had anything to do with science, but everything to do with politics. I fervently hope that with the informed advice from the CDC we are able to stop the spread of the coronavirus, but Donald Trump saying that “the outbreak is totally under control” wouldn’t reassure me one iota - especially if he has a Sharpie at hand.
42
@Susan To be fair to Trump, I don't know how much of that ignorance is "willful."
As much as Trump likes to trot out the facts that he is super-intelligent and was top of his class at Wharton, (1) Wharton doesn't rank students, (2) he didn't spend his freshman year there, and (3) pretty much everything that has come out of his mouth in public for the last forty years evinces his lack of judgment and character, if not his intelligence completely.
The only source of hope here is that Trump's ego is big enough that he may actually let the epidemiologists, CDC, NIH, etc. do their work to contain this virus, so he can save face w/r/t other countries where data, not politics, drives health policy.
1
Of course we’re not ready. It seems to me that governments around the world are failing at recognising and responding sufficiently quickly in a crisis. The Australian government was not prepared for the bushfire crisis, despite accurate predictions and took way too long to show some leadership and throw resources at the catastrophe. I think it’s failing with this virus too. It’s messages to the public are confusing and do not reflect the seriousness (and the small window for containment). While public health measures may create inconvenience for some people, it’s nothing compared to an epidemic. The Chinese government acted faster than for SARS, but took a month to raise the alarm and really start trying to contain the virus. It’s no wonder people are losing faith in institutions.
6
The corona virus outbreak and the earlier SARS epidemic both originating from China if raise alarm bells across the world for their being catastrophic for the global society and the economy, they also invoke anxieties as to why it is China strangely that is the epicentre of this deadly menace? Is it due to the Chinese penchant of food and culinary (specially non-veg.) experimentation that brings closer human-animal/bird contact, or as the conspiracy theories suggest, it is China's global power obsession that forces it to embrace the biological weapon development with the fallout like the uncontrolled virus epidemics?
6
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma
My personal take on this new virus is that it is related to their bioweapons research. I can't prove that of course but I sure hope those that can are looking into this. It's kind of a perfect virus in a way as it's easily transmitted and transmissible by those who themselves are still asymptomatic. Just up the lethality of it and you've got yourselves a great bioweapon. Sure hope our alphabet soup of federal agencies is having a good hard look at this. I for one don't think it started cause some people in China like to eat bat soup but what do I know?
2
Global warming, growing hostile nationalism, population growth, overuse of antibiotics, increasing income inequality, collapsing ecosystems, explosion of misinformation and information warfare, declining affordability and access to healthcare...we aren't ready.
27
@B Major
And yet we never were as ready: better science which identified and sequenced the virus within a fortnight, respiratory virus surveillance systems always on the go, hospitals being built rapidly, better intensive care than 18 years ago with Sars, a candidate drug about to be trialed after a mere 10 days or so and a vaccine in the pipeline, communication of correct data which can no longer be withheld entirely, real-time information of populations about the epidemiological patterns, streamlined institutional exchanges ... Could always be better of course, but things are actually much better than with Sars and arguably with H1N1, the response to which I participated.
People just have to think a bit, lay off the asocial networks and get their news from legit sources. Democracy is hard work.
20
...and wash your hands, often and thoroughly.
1
The 1918 flu pandemic killed 50,000,000 with a mortality rate of about 2%. This was when there was little science and limited resources after a World War. With climate change, global pandemics and mass famine on the horizon in the next few decades, trust in science is the best thing we have.
57
@Dan
Oh, really?
Trust in science? What science? It is like saying trust in God.
It is a very nebulous concept.
Whose science?
Anyway, the best ( ie. worst) is yet to come.
No treatment, not nothing except hype.
Face masks, hand washing?
Give me a break.
3
@Simon Sez Trusting those who come up with hypotheses, test those hypotheses, draw conclusions based on data, and revise those conclusions if/when more relevant data are available is not like "trust in God."
It may not be perfect, but it's better than just throwing up one's hands and drawing false equivalencies.
5
@Dan - If I'm doing the math properly (and the figures we've gotten are correct--I suspect they are low), Coronavirus has a 2% mortality. Scary stuff.
As a Hong Kong permanent resident I’m looking forward to getting the virus, and surviving. If not, oh well. As for everyone else, “Welcome to the party”! There’s going to be some serious reforms in store, not unlike putting enough life boats on ocean liners 108 years ago. And of course some wonderful real estate opportunities born of serious corrections. Lots of corrections, all around. Political, social, economic, technical and personal.
5
The 1918 flu pandemic killed 50,000,000 with a mortality rate of about 2%. This was when there was little science and limited resources after a World War. With climate change, global pandemics and mass famine on the horizon in the next few decades, thrust is science is the best thing we have.
2
The coronavirus sounds like only the start. Those of the autocratic bent who are currently in power - i.e., the like of Trump, Putin, right-wing nationalists who insist against multilateralism, oil despots, CCP, etc.- I am afraid, are so short-sighted in ignoring the hidden threat posed by the melting of the permafrost, which will unleash microbes that human DNA has never been exposed to. Oh well! I prioritize harmony with nature. But if the mass of humanity believes the pendulum always only swings one way, well tough cookies as it comes to shatter human civilization.
6
China reacted too fast by quarantining it’s cities. It isn’t going to stop the spread of the illness, and the government has made two bad choices for itself: either it admits failure and lifts the quarantine or it maintains it (and for how long) and creates more terrible difficulties for the people and the economy.
2
@David Corwin Too fast? Hilarious. They didn't act fast enough. They knew about the problem in December and basically welcomed millions of its citizens home from around the world so they could celebrate the New Year and then send them all off again to the rest of the world. A DISASTER.
I pray that the international community comes together to work on a cure for this.
I also hope that the NYTimes, government institutions and other major media can work together to come up with ways to perhaps temper their reporting so as not to fan the flames of panic if and when this spreads to other parts of the world.
I hope government officials here in the States, around the world, and in major cities such as New York are working on ways to quell potential public panic if this continues to spread.
In my opinion, there would need to be a concerted joint effort by major media such as the Times, public and private institutions and governments, to quell public anxiety if this continues to spread. I think that mitigating potential panic is almost as important as developing a cure.
4
Distrust in science essentially stems from an inadequate education system that does not effectively teach students to think critically and with sound scientific reasoning.
If people don't understand science, they certainly won't the most likely to trust it.
17
That is intuitive, but as an educator, I don’t find this true in my experience. Kids who get straight As in biology believe all manner of absurdity. Worldviews are not usually rational.
8
@Amy I would argue straight As in biology may not be that instructive in determining whether has actually understood the material and the concept of the scientific method.
But I also agree, humans are great rationalisers. More than seeing science as something infallible, I think teaching the kind of psychology and philosophy espoused by people like Kahneman and Dunning/Kreuger may be better. A bit of humility will go a long way, from all people.
The worst part I see is that people without little knowledge of anything become instant experts of the subject and argue to the death. Humans don't like being told they're wrong. So getting comfortable with that is key and this is where science works - when you actually do original science and fail zillions of times, that's when the humility sets in (almost always).
But the world works on PR...
2
@Leo Perry I think there is truth in what you say, but I think social media has played a huge role in essentially erasing high school science from the minds of too many US citizens. Also, I think there are powerful and well-educated people who are spreading anti-science lies because of political, commercial and personal interests, which function to legitimate social media lies.
I live in Dallas and remember not so long ago, it was ground zero in the US for the Ebola virus. What stood out to me from that episode was how quickly people could become pariahs. If you happened to fly on a plane with someone potentially infected, your kid’s elementary school was closed. If you lived in an apartment building where another tenant could have the disease, you were on lock down. I realized we are nowhere near ready for this.
26
I lived in South East Florida (Broward and Dade counties) during the Zika virus. Few people were effected:from our 4 million population; and there were less than ten cases of infant encephalitis, which is what caused the scare because of an anomaly in Brazil. (The counties are overreacted, and sprayed, fogged, and had nightly insect repellant flyovers to kill mosquitoes. Hardly anyone got Zika, and infant encephalitis was non-existent.
But, parts of SE Florida
Disease challenges the religious worldview, just like climate change does. There are preachers in the West who say that because God made a covenant with Noah, there will be no rising sea levels. There are evangelicals who believe prayer works to cure disease and sometimes forego medical treatment for their children. As people started leaving churches in the developed world, some remaining members became more millenarian and messianic. For many others, absent the familiar religious explanations, people started falling for misinformation and pseudoscience. In China, there is faith in technology, but too much faith in government.
3
The winnowing of access to healthcare is also underway in this country which is a core piece of global health security.
Given the history of flat out falsehoods from our current administration and its chief who would believe anything the government said---especially if it involved restriction of movement and isolation. Who indeed?
6
As a retired ICU RN, I believe we are not even remotely prepared for a viral epidemic. If the 1918 influenza virus returned we would treat it the same way we did in 1918 with supportive care. I don’t fear dirty bombs or terrorist attacks; a viral epidemic scares me because we are unready. Maybe Trump can perform a miracle, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
19
To the NYT: Your subtitle should read:
"Trump's unwarranted distrust in science and institutions could be a major problem if the outbreak worsens"
It is counterproductive to insinuate, even if unintentional, that science bears any responsibility in the incompetence of governments that result in further spreading of highly contagious diseases. Science, particularly under this administration, is already getting a bad wrap based on disinformation for political power and profit. It is sad that our scientific institutions have to devote precious resources to defend themselves against baseless accusations and general public indifference. Our once highly vaunted scientific institutions, the envy of the world, are being challenged by foreign entities on many fronts, and yet each year since his election President Trump has submitted budget proposals that severely cut funding for nearly all federal science agencies. Only the temporary will of Congress has countered these disastrous cuts and modestly raised science funding. And these modest actions are taken at some of the best economic and productive times in recent memory. I dread to contemplate an economic slowdown under this or similar administration at a time when we face the threat of climate change and reversal of decades-old environmental gains. Even casually hinting that science may be a problem will just stir further resentment at a time we need the resources and aspiring new talent to solve the problems facing humanity.
34
The efforts of containment from the Chinese government are all well and good and now necessary.
But isn’t it like locking the barn door after the horses have escaped?
A strong central government that can enact and enforce a vast quarantine can surely find the means to police and inspect its food supply in these meat and wildlife open markets-before these diseases take root.
By the way, I love Chinese food and culture. But this outbreak and previously SARS indicate that the government there needs to bring food handling laws and standards way up.
6
@Georgia M
How many years since SARS have over a billion people been shopping almost daily in such market?
Has a connection been make in fact linking some form of food with this Coronavirus?
Little is known about the problem save the jumps that are being made in the media these days.
Unfortunately the ‘through decantamination of the market’ now hides that link but it is of interest to local scientist and answers may in time be found – by these authoritarians.
3
China had done well in trying to restrict this virus to China. China has the medical expertise to handle this kind of virus spread and has been mostly transparent. The real problem is that the index case(s) were in a city with a large population and where first diagnostic procedures did not send the city into immediate epidemiological measures. No country could have managed to do better with a corona virus because no country outside of China has had such a problem.
The world must understand that pathogenic viruses will arise in human populations from time to time and especially where there is species contact with animals able to carry viruses. All human viruses arose from other species and human DNA carries the signatures of viruses from long ago. Humans cannot escape viral existence. What we can hope for is to limit and control the outbreaks of new types of viral organisms which have pathogenic aspects for humans.
3
@Pushkin Really? "China has done well"? It had an obligation to put out a warning to the world that millions of its citizens should NOT return to the motherland for their New Year's celebration. Instead, it stayed pretty quiet till they were all home and then made the world accountable for their callous indifference to our well-being.
I live in a building in Canada that is 50% Chinese. Almost all of them seem to have returned to their home country for the New Year. I expect they'll all be back soon and this is not acceptable. China should have shut down international traffice LONG BEFORE their new year's celebrations.
10
@m. k. jaks
I'm not fond of the Chinese regime, but...
A US citizen with extra-resistant TB flew home from Rome through Canada in 2007.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11954-man-quarantined-in-us-for-extreme-drug-resistant-tb/
In Paris a case of suspected Sars decided to walk out of the hospital in 2003 because he felt bored.
A french citizen upon learning that Wuhan was being shutdown made his way to another airport, flew to Paris and has declared that he won't observe health safety rules (home quarantine...)
Among the returnees on special flights from Wuhan, will all European and US citizens be disciplined enough to stay home for 14 days? We'll see.
Could the West have done any better than China with it's population in the same situation? I don't think so.
Fine. The people who believe in science can get the vaccine, and the one's who don't can take their chances with thoughts and prayers.
36
@Michael Jay
There is no vaccine for this illness. There are things to do to aviod inflicting oneself with the virus if likely exposed. Do you know them?
2
@Michael Jay Unfortunately, either (1) many of the anti-vaxxers will be spared by herd immunity, or (2) the anti-vaxxers have grown to be a large enough number that even those of us who do vaccinate (presuming there is a vaccination at hand) and those who can't vaccinate because of legitimate medical conditions (age, immunocompromised already) will be infected. I prefer (1), but I'm guessing (2) is more likely--which is why vaccinations should not be optional for those healthy enough to receive them who leave the confines of their own dwellings.
2
@Michael Jay
Herd immunity is not a myth... Those who resort to 'thoughts and prayers' endanger all of us.
1
One of the things that strikes me about this is that the world really needs an "off" switch for plane travel, rather than the gradual tightening of the spigot that we're seeing now.
With the entire globe hours away by air, and absent the quarantine to which seafaring travelers were once subjected, it is possible that a virulent new disease could spread around the world before steps were taken to stop it.
I'm reasonably confident that diligent public health procedures will prevent this disease from becoming epidemic in the US, but there is no absolute certainty of that, or that another disease, more lethal and contagious, will leap across the firebreak. Or absence of a firebreak, really, since the problem is that we don't have one.
18
@Josh Hill people still need to travel. It is unreasonable to isolate 1.7 billion people every time sickness breaks out
8
Why should we trust institutions when WHO is slow-walking this? Only after enormous pressure have they decided for the Emergency Committee to meet again to consider it.
And some of us are old enough to remember NIH playing political games and the City of New York and the federal government under Reagan slow-walking GRID and then AIDS.
Sometimes, institutions need to be distrusted.
10
I’m here in China where it is happening was here for SARS as well. It is major because healthy appearing people who never saw THE MARKET are being hospitalized or walking about as carriers.
Having said all that I would expect the media to assess how likely the expansion of the disease and what can be done to lessen that occurring. What I see instead is one more topic for China Bashing.
Yes authorities were slow to see ‘something new and horrible happening.’ Not that surprising but it appears they are doing rather well in confinement and rushing care where needed.
Will other learn from the experience and are they now preparing for the worst?
16
@wsmrer China saw SARS and under-reported until it was too late for the world and for Toronto, specifically (it suffered a lot as a city, financially). It saw the Coronavirus in December and had an obligation to warn its citizens not to return. instead, not a whisper until millions of Chinese returned to their place of birth just so they could hop on planes and come back to the West. Again.
10
@m. k. jaks
You are steeped in FEAR I fear. The US has 5 cases last I saw and all had visited Wuhan and reported travels. Coronavirus appears as a flue which is itself a milder Coronavirus. Wuhan did not know what it was fast enough but such responses are not ethnically unique. The mayor was sacked for what that is worth -- not much.
@wsmrer
I don't see how that can be considered China bashing, rather than an accurate accounting of flaws in China's response.
The same editorial in effect calls Donald Trump a liar (who knew), and points out that he has weakened some of the institutions that were created to protect Americans from epidemics of this kind.
So if there's bashing going on here, it's equal opportunity bashing!
1
Of course the world is not ready. Way too many countries are creating their own "truth" (authoritarian rule). Way too many people lack respect for science and will believe only what they think is believable. We are in deep trouble - we, as a species - than can be reasonably imagined. And we have only ourselves to blame - so much potential, but so easily misled, and so apathetic.
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My late mother in law always used to say (western) doctors don’t treat the whole person. It’s true. Doctors are trained to look at isolated systems. They treat problems with sledgehammers. When the sledgehammers cause problems they add secondary and tertiary interventions which then cause a cascade of more problems.
I think the anti vaxxers on line are mad but as someone who writes about the philosophy of science I think modern medicine needs an epistemological rethink from the ground up to be more about what is scientifically workable and sustainable and less about creating markets for chemicals that started in C19th Europe.
I wouldn’t trust homeopaths if I had cancer but I also worry about the corporate capture of medicine. Also as doctors tend to be well paid they tend not to question the model. How many of them read research papers or just click the drop down menus on their computer screens?
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@James
As a MD turned epidemiologist (and who would love to be an epistemologist) I can say this: Western medicine is steeped in science. It is great at identifying severe disease, not so great at identifying ailments, discomforts and benign but usually transient disease which can certainly make life miserable for some patients.
It is great at curing or at least stopping many diseases, and unwanted effects of active drugs are more rare than when I was a student, thanks to modern chemistry.
It is great at seeing lesions, thanks to modern physics and computing (imagery).
Treatment is undertaken with the patient now, unlike when I was a student.
We've collectively developed vaccines. We've harnessed the power of many plants, developed antibiotics, heart drugs, anesthetics and pain killers. We've better studied and implemented public hygiene. Life expectancy is on the rise as a result, worldwide since the rest of the World benefited from our discoveries, albeit for a cost: vaccines, antibiotics, insulin ....
Yes, we still have much to learn and improve skills and behavior. Western medicine is definitely not good at making people happy. But it is good at keeping people alive.
People from all over the world and from all cultures come for treatment in the West when they have severe disease.
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@Arnaud
Well why is one branch (psychiatry) totally pseudoscientific and subject to corporate capture?
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"One would like to believe the president’s pronouncements. But Mr. Trump has a history of obscuring facts — especially scientific ones — to score political points."
I was relieved to learn that infectious disease specialists have been retained at key agencies, unlike other types of scientists whose work, and resources, have been slashed to the bone.
But it's not comforting to think that the public helath procedures and protocols put in place during the ebola scare were abandoned, like so many other things put in place by Barack Obama.
I just finished reading the story about the run on surgical masks here in the US, reflecting public panic that may stem from the administraion's general disdain for science and truth.
Health workers are going to need those maks--but do you think the president would consider a public address on Coronavirus to allay people's fears?
I doubt it--and I"m sure I'm not alone.
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@ChristineMcM
The run on masks may not be unwarranted. Do you realize how many people are on immunosuppressive drugs? LOTS.
As a hospital RN I will tell you how completely clueless people are about communicable diseases. They will come to the hospital as visitors and cough and sneeze all over patients including newborns. These clods never wear a mask or consider staying home. I’ve been chewed out by family members who are asked to remove sick children from visiting newborns who have no immune systems and small airways.
Essentially anytime you go into an enclosed environment during flu season you are at risk. A good mask combined with hand washing is a good defense.
BTW just because a person. Looks healthy doesn’t mean their immune system isn’t compromised Don’t judge who is hoarding a mask and who needs it. Right now seasonal flu is the real threat in this country and much underestimated.
As an aside I always enjoy your thoughtful comments
There's something rather odd about all of this. Despite the widespread international concern and large numbers of exposed international travelers, health impacts remain largely confined to portions of China. Latest fatality count, sadly, stands at 170, but with every single one in China. It's clearly spread to a number of other countries, but even now sum total cases outside of China remain less than 2% of the total. This suggests both the primacy of a non-human source within China, and the absence of significant person-to-person transmission. Ultimately, from an epidemiological perspective it thus far seems more like the romaine lettuce E. coli outbreaks than a highly contagious new virus.
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@wkb With 8000 or more cases already your idea of no human to human transmission is ridiculous. And, if you would read the article, already contradicted by medical experts in China.
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The corona viruses as a group including those that cause colds, do not survive outside in the environment more than 24 hours and are more prevalent in the winter and early spring. And they last on surfaces about 3 hours. Perhaps outdoor camping in the summer or rooftops or on a small boat is the way to go.
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@Nadine
I don't survive in the environment more than 24 hours in the winter and early spring !!!
A number of people say vaccines cause autism and avoid them, drug companies don't invest in vaccines and antibiotics (money), we indiscriminately throw drugs into animal feed, governments say they are in control but don't invest, everything travels quickly, virus' and bacteria adapt successfully every day. And don't forget the science deniers in and out of the White House.
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I believe the world is not ready for the coronavirus. For this reason, the spread of the sickness goes fast.
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Trump is the most anti-science president in recent history. In this, as in so many ways, he is the polar opposite of LBJ, who was president when Trump was in college. LBJ, as Senate majority leader, sponsored the bill creating NASA and as president directed NASA through the space program that resulted in the moon landing 6 months after he left office. He implored Congress to pass the first environmental legislation.
In Trump we have a president who denies climate change and defunds any science when it is politically convenient for him. How far the US has fallen in Trump's lifetime!
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@James Ricciardi As a life long resident of Texas I can tell you the main reason LBJ got behind the space program was so he could distribute patronage. Otherwise the Manned Spacecraft Center would never have been in Houston.
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@T Smith That is your view of history. It hardly explains why the Senate voted 100 to 0 after his death to rename the manned space Center the Johnson Space Center.
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@James Ricciardi
And then... there was Reagan.... the progenitor of all the other disastrous republican presidents.
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"Chinese officials appear to have moved much faster this time around."
I am not sure of that, this illness has already spread all over China including Tibet.
This illness has spread already to 6,000 people across at least 15 countries and has claimed more than 130 lives in China alone, that is the official Chinese estimate but you cannot trust the transparency of the Chinese government. At this point, a quarantine in Wuhan is not enough to stop the spread of this coronavirus in China
A scientific assessment of the spread of the disease, assuming an optimistic 90 percent quarantine, still predicted more than 59,000 infections and 1,500 deaths — twice the toll of the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak.
China’s health minister said the coronavirus is increasing in virulence and now could be contagious even before people exhibit symptoms, making apparently healthy people possible carriers.
This illness is a tragedy for China and the rest of the world.
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@Padman Virulence should not be confused with infectiousness. This virus is infectious but has a low (reported) mortality of 2% as opposed to 5% for the 1918 flu, and 9-10% for SARS....
We may get lucky this time but the anti science policies of this administration (and anti health care) put us at higher risk.
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@Annie baker If this is true, then why is China imposing such restrictions on its population? I'm not being snarky, I just keep seeing contradictory statements and would like to better understand.
I was around for the first Swine Flu. There was the same panic and questions as now. Scientists hurried with a vaccine and the world was saved. I suspect we will be hearing about a new vaccine soon. Until then I will be the one hoarding coffee, chocolate and potato chips :-)
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@Missy
Swine flu - now better known as H1N1 - occurred in 2009. I wish I believed we currently have the same ability to mobilize against this latest outbreak... but I don't.
Big Pharma is much too busy direct selling to a small percentage of the population extremely high margin specialty drugs to be bothered with low margin annoyances like flu vaccines. And the current occupant of the White House, when not busy drastically cutting services while making outrageous and distracting statements, will simply blame his predecessor and move on to the next political rally.
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Ready or not, this virus will force humanity to adapt its systems to the environmental context we evolved under.
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@G
When we evolved under the pressure of the environmental context you describe (savanna, caves...), mortality was probably much higher than that caused by this new coronavirus.
Nature is nasty. I went to medical school for a long time to learn to prevent or undo its effects.
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I wouldn't care to bet on that happening!!! It didn't with Ebola, it didn't with HIV, it will find some scapegoat to blame and ignore the spread.
From yesterday's Times' op-ed: We Made the Coronavirus Epidemic
Scientist "Zheng-Li Shi, of the Wuhan Institute of Virology...and her collaborators who, back in 2005, showed that the SARS pathogen was a bat virus that had spilled over into people. Ms. Shi and colleagues have been tracing coronaviruses in bats since then, warning that some of them are uniquely suited to cause human pandemics."
Someone give this lady more authority! The authority to shut down food markets or any other businesses or practices that contribute to this spread. These scientists' efforts are wasted if their authoritarian government stifles or punishes them for their basic decency of servicing the public with the truth, in order to protect their bottom line or unsustainable and unrealistic GDP growth quota.
We should also rethink the necessity of plane travel. In addition to contributing to global warming, it accelerates the spread of pandemics.
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@Natalie
Regarding plane travel, I don’t think anyone thinks it is fun. So much hassle going through security alone. So people take the plane because it is the fastest. I have family on the other opposite coast, I’d like to spend time with them, should I not travel?
@Earthling
Maybe not, if traveling by plane can accelerate the spread of pandemics. And air pollution, and global warming, while we're on the subject. We all have to kind of stop and reassess things we've taken for granted, what we consider our rights, given the state of things now.
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The fatality rate seems very low, and striking mostly the old and weak. How is that different from the common flu ? Could someone please explain ?
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@sissifus
The fatality rate has been hovering just above 2% of reported cases. China has a population of about 1.4 billion. That would be about 28,000,000 dead if the virus were to spread throughout the country.
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@sissifus I believe the case fatality rate currently is being estimated to be about double that of influenza. (About 2% for coronavirus vs 1% for flu.) That could be devastating when you consider that it is a novel virus, meaning most people in a given population will not have immunity to it. There is also no vaccine. Thus, a having high proportion of susceptible people will provide plenty of "fuel" for an epidemic to get going.
I am worried.
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@Mary Rossano
Statistics for the flu in the U.S. so far this year are 15,000,000 infected with 8.200 fatalities.
I calculate that as 0.055%. Which makes the Wuhan coronavirus 36 times more lethal than the flu. (Unless I've made an error somewhere.)
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I thought that I read that the virus is less lethal than the flu? What's the truth?
If it's less lethal than the flu, why is China curtailing travel and setting up quarantines?
I'm genuinely confused.
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@Justanne it is less lethal than SARS, but 10 times more lethal than flu. It is also much more contagious than SARS.
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@Justanne
Statistics for the flu in the U.S. so far this year are 15,000,000 infected with 8.200 fatalities.
I calculate that as 0.055%. Which makes the Wuhan coronavirus 36 times more lethal than the flu. (Unless I've made an error somewhere.)
Apologies for the repost - I responded to the wrong comment first time.
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@Justanne
When an epidemic hits it causes deaths. It also causes disease and personal and collective medical expenditure. Disease also leads businesses, schools, restaurants to close. Tourists don't come. When a health crisis occurs, it rattles societies and authorities, public and scientific... It sometimes leads to societal unrest and even violence against some groups.
The impact of an epidemic should not be considered on the basis of lethality alone.
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Darwin predicted competing evolutionary process. Coronavirus is a stress test to human survival and evolution. Organisms are mutable.
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The common cold is sometimes a coronavirus, too.
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At one time I would have concluded these concerns to be overblown. Not anymore. One need look no further than the anti-vaccine zealots and their followers to see the problem. It may well be that this particular virus will prove to have limited impact - as we all hope - and this concern prove moot. But it could go the other way and, even if not, someday a more virulent virus will, not may, emerge.
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@T Smith Ironically, it might end up being viruses like these that kill the anti-vaxxer movement. For most living Americans, polio is nothing but something in a history book, and the flu is nothing serious (despite 30k Americans/year dying from it).
If nothing else good comes out of this outbreak, I hope it will be a wakeup call to those who think their faith, natural immunity, and/or healthy lifestyle will protect them from epidemics or pandemics.
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Or, there could be yet another measles outbreak thanks to anti-vaxxers.
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