Look, the EU is a trade cartel that the London Telegraph said today keeps prices 20% higher than with free trade.
I'm old enough to have lived in Europe before the EU and everything was dirt cheap. You can't tell me that suddenly Spain, Italy and Greece should have prices 20% higher than the U.S. because of quality. It's because the EU has created a closed system in which inefficient Euro industries are protected from competition.
Euros make a big hullabaloo about "chlorinated" US chicken. But in the US, consumers can buy a $3 chicken or a $10 free-range chicken. Euros don't have that freedom.
It's insane that we still don't have a free trade deal with the EU, but Trump will soon turn his attention, after successful new deals with Japan, S. Korea, NAFTA and half-way with China.
The EU has a $100 billion annual trade surplus with US, and a $90 billion surplus with UK.
The EU is a paper tiger. All of you Trump haters will sing a different tune when you can afford to tour Europe again without taking out a second mortgage on your home.
3
20 per cent higher than under free trade? First of all, you need to read up on WTO rules, and not least the 'Anything but arms' zero tariffs for countries in the developing world (especially Africa). Secondly, protectionism: the EU is the world's largest free-trade bloc and since Trump started his incessant trade war, the EU has the world's lowest tariffs on average (it used to be the US). No country or customs union are trade completely freely with the outside world. As for your point that everything used to be dirt cheap in Europe, that's not quality or standards, it's called economic development (the purchasing power has increased enormously). As for the cheap chicken in the US, it's not significantly more expensive in Spain. However, higher standards of animal husbandry and food hygiene in the EU means that the death rate from salmonella, is three or four times higher in the US.
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@Frederick Kiel This is flatly false. The price of produce in Europe is well below that of the countries like Australia and the US. And generally higher quality.
27
@Fenella
In some ways Kiel is right. I lived in Spain before and after the Euro was introduced. With the Euro introduction there was an almost immediate 20% raise on the price of everything: rent, food, clothing, etc. You could not have so much economic development in a few months!!
Indeed not only global, but also local economies are highly integrated these days. The integration component is the one controlling competitiveness and efficiencies in all markets. Thankfully, we won't have to deal with British politicians anymore. They can very well continue arguing over and over whatever they may only wish to right now. Oddly, the EU is in no rush. As a whole, the EU, hardly buys anything from the UK, and last remaining production facilities will be moved to the continent sooner rather than later. Thank you.
Brexit is like felling a tree, cutting it down is the easy part, picking it all up is a lot of hard work.
5
In all fairness to the Scots, they should have another referendum vote on independence to decide for themselves whether they wish to leave the U.K. and rejoin the E.U., or remain part of the U.K. This would be especially fair to the younger people, who viewed a greatly wider future and capacity to live and travel in different cultures while in the E.U., unlike the isolationist older people in England.
9
The EU should block all products and services from the UK. London is now basically a money laundering center of the world. They do not ask questions which russian mobster or terrorist buys a property or launders money there.
12
It seems like Brexit is a terrible deal for young Britons (or really for anyone not within shouting distance of retirement). Any trade agreement with the USA or China would require huge, onerous concessions that would undermine the ways of life the Leavers were ostensibly trying to protect. American CEOs are happy to gut their own communities for profit, why would the UK be any different?
10
The EU got about 80% of what it wanted out of the Withdrawal Agreement (aka the divorce agreement). The UK is going to pay 39 billion pounds in contributions for years ahead, Northern Ireland has effectively remained in the customs union, etc. and there is little doubt who has most leverage in the forthcoming trade talks. As Varadkar the Irish PM pointed out it comes down to mass and proximity. The EU is 21 miles away, has 450 million people versus 65 million in the UK, and takes nearly half Britain's exports. Furthermore during the 47 years Britain has been a member its economy has become totally integrated with that of the EU.
6
In the early 2000's, I lived and worked in the cities of Reading, Camberley and London. I saw clearly the disparity for the working people of the urban cities, where I worked, and the more idle "gentry" of the rural countryside, which I visited on weekends.
I found the younger city folk looked to the future through the lens of globalization and of the UK being part of the world community. The rural populace, in turn, wanted their identity back - fox hunting, the Sunday Roast at the Village Pub, a slower pace. Mostly, they longed for a return of "Empire".
Rurals groused openly and often of how, with the fall of the Empire, so many "Western Oriental Gentlemen" had moved to their island, from the India Raj, from their former colonies in Africa and Hong Kong and from the Caribbean. In particular, the rurals disliked the freedom of movement afforded by the EU charter, which they associated with a loss of national identity.
The Tories seized on this in procuring "Brexit". The Rurals have won. With the egress of the Financial industries, London real estate prices are falling substantially. Urban salaries are beginning to sag. There is really very little that the UK produces, other than agricultural & fishery products, that the EU can't get elsewhere. A trade deal will not, in the main, favor the rural island nation that the UK is bent on being.
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@Joe Miksis
Did you miss the disintegrating, increasingly violent, growing in poor, imported population cities of Central and Northern England? Maybe even some of the violent and drug/poverty ridden parts around London?
Denmark's socialist party just won an election because they reversed their position on economic migrants and immigration after realising the devastating effects the 2015 (emotion driven) great migration has had on their carefully built social insurance system. Other EU countries are doing the same.
The Swiss and Norwegian people, being pragmatic in nature, were not taken in by the fine sounding ideological sirens either.
Economics and the general welfare of citizens cannot be substituted by ideological emotions or the desire for happy "We are the world" dream worlds.
At some point a reversal is to be expected. see the US, Canada, Australia, NZ as further examples of such directions being taken.
8
@ Si seulement Yes, and how is the disintegration and decline in the North of England fault of the EU? The UK has never had any regional policies - they're heavy recipients of EU structural funds. Once coal mining became unprofitable and environmentally unsustainable, Thatcher did actually bring some manufacuring back to the region, thanks to the Single Market, but everything and everywhere else outside London and the South East (loosely interpreted) is neglect.
21
@Teo
You speak to economy, I was speaking why the people voted for Brexit. The Polish plumber effect in their daily lives.
The Leavers didn’t worry about trade. It was almost entirely about immigration.
91
Here's a word to contemplate: Scotland.
2
Am I wrong to think the U.K. is a net economic loser whether this ends in no trade deal, a minor trade deal or even a semi-free trade deal with the E.U.?
5
What I find hard to comprehend is that so many isolationist, return to the past, authoritarian governments are invariably voted in mostly by rural folks. The US, Hungary, Poland, Britain. Do they really outnumber those in the big cities?
Anti-immigration , racism, and government propaganda seem to be some of the motivating factors. What are they afraid of? And why are they so susceptible to lies?
13
@Gwen Vilen In the case of America, xenophobia is quite strong. People lost in the rural vastness of America generally only see people who look like them, act like them, think like them. Anyone different, "the other", is suspect. Trump has played on this with a cunning expertise which has effectively divided the country to a greater and greater degree. Also, one must never underestimate racism as part of the American psyche, especially in isolated rural areas. it wasn't so long ago that apartheid was part of the system here.
5
Serguei Semine, PhD
Breakdown of European Union The idea of the European Union (Europe – 92) project (similar to “North-American Union”) is dependent on continuation of the existing Global Economic Order. It was assumed that the favourable economic conditions for these countries not only will continue but will also improve. The economic union would strengthen Europe’s position in the global market allowing for successful competition against the US economy expansion. The breakdown of EU was predetermined. The US was smarter and more clear-sighted, they did not go ahead with the “North American Union”, which should have also included Canada and Mexico. Even though the necessary plans were developed, including introduction of common currency – “Amero”. Global economic crisis was starting up. The first to drop out of global economic system were the economically weaker USSR and its socialist satellite states. The end of the socialist block had extended the perceived success (prosperity) of the US and European economies through access to the markets for ex-USSR and its allies in Asia and Africa. This gave EU members an illusion of even bright economic future fuelled by cheap labour and material resources from the collapsing socialist countries. This illusion has led to expansion of EU to critical size.
Brexit will reveal many divisions, especially in the UK, and even more in England. The UK is the most unequal county in Western Europe and inequality is steadily on the rise. Of the ten poorest regions in North Western Europe only Wallonia is outside the UK. But London is the richest, albeit London inequality is about the worst in the UK.
The UK development is due to the Reagan/Thatcher economic policies and the UK is hit even worse than the US as they do not have the US natural resources.
The EU citizens in the UK is the most productive, with the highest employment rate in the UK, considerably higher than UK citizens and immigrants from elsewhere, who by the way are by far the largest group of immigrants in the UK. EU citizens deliver a large net contribution to the UK public economies.
The UK is an aging population and can't function without importing an educated workforce, as the UK education system is expensive and mediocre for the average citizens. The UK can't even educate their own doctors and nurses, let alone scientists of all kinds. As the Europeans are going home, and most first generation immigrants will, especially the well skilled and educated who can work everywhere in the EU or the world for that matter.
The UK never cared to control immigration, and frankly they are a bit like the US where the "nationalists" happily exploit immigrants while ranting about how inconvenient these "foreigners" are, even second or third generation.
22
To me, it does not bode well that it has been such trouble to do the easiest part of Brexit, leaving, while the myriad of trade deals and treaties need to be negotiated.
5
@Brett Unfortunately Johnson does not appear to care. He seems to be making things up as he goes along.
6
The crisis of 2008 has brought about sobering reality. New members had joined the EU while economic activity had declined. The only solution is to rearrange the global resources and control them. This is why England, cleaver homeland of thinkers such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo, was the first to get out of the European Union (Brexit). The EU is starting to look a lot like Ponzi scheme, the first to join and to get out are the lucky ones at the expense of the others. The main proponent of the Union is Germany since it needs access to a lot of resources to reorganize and modernize the economy of the less developed eastern part. The European Union today is a German domain, its main market where German industry has practically eliminated competition from other EU members by passing favourable legislation in EU parliament and administration. Today’s economic interests of different industrial nations will become more differentiated and polarized. This process has already begun and can be seen for example in Western Europe. Brexit confirms it. At the same time, the role of state control and public sector in the economy will increase. These will cover administration of economic controls, typical for crisis periods, stabilization of the economy (employment, etc), economic security (preserving access to resources for the economy is most important), and economic development.
@Serguei
Actually Britain wasn't one of the first to join. It took them ten years of groveling from 1963 to 1973 and three separate applications to join. And far from the economic interests of the member states becoming more differentiated they are in fact becoming more homogenized as their economies have become more integrated. The UK auto, financial services and pharmaceutical industries to take just three examples are massively dependent on the EU both as a market for its products and the supply chains it provides for intermediate goods. You have no idea what you are talking about.
14
I think this will be a tremendous period of self discovery for many Brits who were so desperate to leave the EU. As the British are pulled further and further into the orbit of the U.S., they will discover just how European they really are. Such revelations are priceless. I wish them the best of luck because there is more pain to come.
20
@Mountaineer
The thought that crosses MY mind about this is the UK is as much a capitalistic country as is the U.S. Therefore, MANY may look forward to this crossing over into our orbit. It is going to be our gain and their loss.
1
Not sure whether this is entirely Britain's loss; EU has a stake in this as well. Knowing the Brits, I think EU will cave first. It is the principal reason for virulent anglophilia.
1
@Kalidan Well - if the last 3 years indicate the future the UK will cave as they did on the easy part, namely the withdrawal agreement, that is pretty much what the EU27 proposed from the very beginning of the negotiations.
5
Economic uncertainty in Northern Ireland which also voted to Remain is at least as great as in Scotland.
Hauliers (trucking companies) are baffled as to what will be required to move goods. Farmers on both sides of the Republican/NI are worried, especially dairy farmers.
And so on. Almost every business group in NI has officially expressed worry.
The last thing Northern Ireland needs is uncertainty and instability.
15
The trade negotiations needed to extricate the UK from 45 years of EU membership will need several years to complete such is the technical involved. EU officials are seasoned negotiators whereas the UK has a lack of expertise in this area. If Johnson, and its very unlikely, terminates talks after one years, a hard Brexit will result in which the UK will face a high common external tariff and myriad technical regulations. The volume and value of its trade would be severely damaged, even if alternative trade arrangements elsewhere were made - which is unlikely to put it mildly. After the 'celebrations' of departure the cold light of morning will gradually become clearer. What a mess, and totally unnecessary.
16
Fair enough they got their Brexit. But who is they? After visiting and doing business with the English for decades it is apparent that the « they » is the very wealthy and the poor. This polarization is unfortunately happening in other countries. The uber rich and the sycophantic poor imposing decisions on the dwindling middle class. The United States seems to read from the same play book. Does not auger well.
41
Yes, it is complicated and will take constant effort... even compromises on both sides.
But since Norway and Switzerland have not imploded (as was predicted by the same "sky is falling lot), my guess is that all will work out and these countries will be able to keep their identities, prized sovereignty and most of their democratic powers rather than turning them all over blindly to the anonymous army of technocrats and functionaries in Bruxelles.
Turn freedoms & sovereignty over to Bruxelles for what? For a larger market they can't control?
Been there, tried that.... hence Brexit.
1
No one predicted that Norway and Switzerland would fall. Boris Johnson doesn't want to adhere to EU standards and regulations, so don't expect anything much by way of a trade agreement.
18
@Si Seulement Voltaire
Every newly minted EU directive is adopted 'per direct' by the governments of Norway and Switzerland. That's why their roofs don't cave-in. It also allows them to maintain such good relations with the EU. However, as non-members, they don't have a say in what those directives might be. O. There are exceptions, and the Swiss in particular love to point those out, but effectively they are non-voting EU members. That is Britain's future. So much for sovereignty. Or the version of sovereignty promoted by Brexit.
23
@Si Seulement Voltaire
"Norway and Switzerland have not imploded (as was predicted by the same "sky is falling lot"
What you said was never said or suggested by anybody, period.
Norway and Switzerland have moved CLOSER to the EU by joining EFTA.
EFTA allows for freedom of movement of people, so those examples absolutely don't apply to post-brexit Britain. Honestly, what universe do you get your information from?
Ukraine's current status more resembles what Britain's future may look like though, again, the difference is that Ukraine is moving towards the EU with more not less regulatory alignment.
The best example of all for a future Britain is probably Turkey--massively underperforming despite having an educated and capable workforce in its capital and poverty in the provinces. Both UK and Turkey are hobbled by nationalists who support a local leader's dalliances with foreign quasi-despots (trump and putin, respectively). Turkey has a FTA with the EU and Britain might get one - a state of affairs that will clearly be not as good as what Britain had as a EU member.
Britain has absolutely snookered itself with this colossal own-goal. Its only realistic "alternate" trading partner, the USA, is well positioned to swamp what's left of British companies with cheap imports.
You can bloviate over "freedoms" as much as you want. No sensible person believes you and I'm 99%+ certain you are not French despite the transparent "Bruxelles" attempt at LARPing.
9
Brexit goes on, Europe loses power, and China’s influence grows. Hope everyone’s ready to adopt Chinese work a cultural practices a few years down the road!
8
Personally I always thought Brexit was dopey. Still do.
But they had the vote, and 2 subsequent elections, and now it's done.
Even so I doubt it will have much impact on either the EU or UK. Trade is trade and trade is good. 84% of world GDP is not in the EU, 86% once UK leaves, while the EU's share of world GDP has been declining as others grow.
My business has no problems trading with the EU, and while a FTA is in the works it's still some way off.
I suspect any problems will be minimal and it would seem in everyones interest to resolve quickly.
In regards to Great Britain being great again. That little Island wasn't great, it was the empire, and the people, and they gave it up a long time ago.
9
@Paul Interesting how the majority in Scotland vote another vote to leave and it will pass. Interesting how Boris the Clown won't allow it because it is not legal, but what seems to be never mentioned is the vote to leave was never legally binding either. It like in the US rich politicians who did not want to pay taxes. Over the decades there had been many such referendums around wages, poverty and guess what they never went ahead because it was not binding. No discussion of Northern Ireland unless you missed it a vote has to be held under the Good Friday Accords, but then again against Johnson will deny that since it is undemocratic. The Troubles are coming back and I won't shed a tear for those Ulsters racists that are going to get whats coming to them. There is no UK and by the way the EU is good to be rid of the Brits who has history is one of racism, butchery. Let sit on their little island and drop dead. Jim Trautman
2
@trautman I would think in all fairness Scotland shold have another referendum on independence, and have the right to decide whther or not they want to remain isolated with England or rejoin the E.U. Most of the young people I know in Scotland view the future in terms of an open, more global world, not trapped on an island with a group of aging, nationalist luddites.
5
England has one large industry - Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, or FIRE. The rest of the sectors (save the public sector) are very small in comparison (BoE data). Meantime the EU is stiffening its rules on banks (etc), so the chance is England becomes further of an off-shore tax haven, which will suit a number of financier Tories (e.g. Rees-Mogg). The other 3 non-states in the Dis-United Kingdom are tiny in population and fairly diverse in industry/farming mixes. Scotland is most likely to ask to join the EU, Wales the least although rural subsidies are important. Northern Ireland is the most worrying, with violence likely between the two N. Irish sides, and is the place of the Cameron-Johnson duo's greatest betrayal. 600 years of English oppression of Ireland and these spoilt brats from Eton never cared less. Most of the UK lives in far worse poverty than e.g. Greece. I say this having endured living in England for a decade. Johnson has left the Brexit non-deal for N Ireland in a terrible mess, whereas the very different Republic of Ireland is perfectly happy as a member of the EU.
46
UK companies, scientists, designers and engineers will no longer have any input on ISO Standards, CE or CENELEC Requirements, IEC, DIN or any other European specifications - but just about everything they do will be controlled by them.
10
@Paul Avery
THOSE are exactly the things that are negotiated. Norway and Switzerland participate in all of the most important and positive organisations of the EU.
They pay to do this ... but have not given up their sovereignty and freedoms for them. herein lies the difference.
2
@Si Seulement Voltaire, they pay a lot of money to get a seat at the table; but that doesn't mean they also get a vote. Their "sovereignty" is a very expensive, but hollow, principle, since both countries still have to adapt a large amount of EU rules and regulations without having a real say in them. As a EU member, you at least get a (blocking) vote, so you are more able to exercise sovereignty than when you're not a member.
8
@Martyn
I'm a US/Swiss citizen and voted against joining back in the 90s. There is no more pro EU movement there.
The latest battle is the EU trying to impose a stop to our laws that protect our citizens' salaries from foreign dumping. The EU wants total competition, a proposal that would deeply harm workers in Switzerland with all the consequences.
You may think sovereignty is not important. The Swiss and Norwegians do.
Furthermore, given that Germany and France decide the vast majority of EU topics, small countries have no "say" either. Better out than in.
4
Well, the idiots got what they wanted. So long UK. Let’s see if you like being isolated.
33
Exactly. Leave voters have no idea of what's in store for them. They were sold a complete dud.
6
@Steve B
I just have one question: Does my favorite scotch get cheaper now? $50/fifth is really spendy.
Seriously, the Brits are now relegated to also-ran status when it comes to economic power. All that because they don't like people who have darker skin than their own and have a hard time with French and German? Brilliant! Just.Freaking.Brilliant!
4
It is a tragedy, if only because it has created so much antagonism, hatred, negative emotion, out-of-place nationalism, xenophobia, racism and difficulties for business. Families have been riven, friendships destroyed, and as of Feb people will be 'cleansing' their phone address lists. The worst is yet to come.
37
@Roger Thurman
Does THIS saga sound familiar?
3
A lot of companies are dropping their investments in the UK and many professionals are relocating to the EU who have lived in the UK for many years. Until there's progress on how regulations will align (or not, according to some UK cabinet members), it's limbo. Many people aren't willing to bet their careers and livelihoods on it and are choosing to exit the UK.
30
No mention of Northern Ireland? I think people are naive when they say that the Troubles won’t come back because things have changed and the original players are too old. There are plenty of Ulster Unionists left who will feel completely betrayed if Britain turns their backs on them. It is a recipe for breaking the tenuous peace.
39
@Ben Not sure about the troubles as much as demographics. NI will be a majority Catholic nation shortly. DUP
5
I agree that the demographics are changing. However, I went to Northern Ireland a year and a half ago. I saw plenty of Union Jacks and not a single Orange republic flag.
4
I’m on the Irish Republican side, by the way. It’s the Loyalists I’m worried about.
1
Congratulations to Britain’s deplorables.
Back to scurvy, back teeth and bad food.
43
As in America, your derision is fuel
5
@RobtLaip
Then you should have a full tank!
4
Nothing encapsulates the EU ethos better than having its unelected Vice President shut off a Member's microphone because he waved his native country's flag.
10
@Charles Remember Great Britain signed up for this rule too...
20
@Charles Mairead McGuiness, who was speaker in the European parlement yesterday and did cut the microphone because of a breach of rules, is a MEP (Member of European Parliament). She is of course elected, twice in fact : she was elected as an Irish MEP in 2004, and then by the parliament as vice president in 2014.
You shouldn't believe anything you read on the "unelected EU".
8
@CV
How many Britons voted for her?
Yeah, thought so.
Great Britain, not for long.
93
@Michael James
Ditto "United Kingdom."
23
@Michael James
It wasn't great to begin with when this whole debacle started.
3
Some of these difficulties echo those faced by farmers and some other industries in the US, as the regulatory uncertainty and tariffs drive down investment. I hope the British are ready with billion-pound subsidies for their farmers.
40
The UK enacted 243 laws as the result of EU directive and another 4000 regulations. Plus the agreements, memos, agencies, NGOs and who know what else will need untangling.
2
@Rick which eu directive is that? Reference please.
15
It will be extremely valuable for the western world to see what comes next. Will Brexit be the catastrophic economic failure that so many neoliberalists have warned about? Or will England flourish in the coming years? The reality is that nobody knows. This is a grand experiment and there will be much to learn from this. I wish the Brits the best of luck and hope it turns out well.
17
It really helps if careful consideration is given to matters economic before taking action. One does not resign one's employment without making certain the rent and car payment are covered until other employment is found. In OKing Brexit without such due consideration, the stage is set for mammoth disruption--and not just in the UK. Brexit is only Act I in what looks to be a genuine Greco tragedy.
57
The European Union has told Scotland on many occasions that should the leave the United Kingdom on no account will they be allowed to join the European Union as an independent nation. If they did allow it this would set precedent for every country in Europe with a rebel region (notably Spain) to do the same.
6
@Pennsport Rittenhouse True, but less so in recent months. French, German and Dutch representatives of the EU have said that Scotland could be re-admitted following a legal referendum. That's the crux of this. The Catalan referendum did not have any legal basis. The Spanish wildly overreacted to it, but the Scottish National Party has no desire to hold an "illegal" advisory referendum. It's going to take a lot of pushing of the current Conservative government to get it, but it's a possibility in 2021, I think.
51
Scotland is not a “rebel region.” It is largely autonomous already, run by its own Parliament.
51
@Ben Not largely autonomous and also not financially solvent. England funds the very lavish lifestyle of Scotland. They will never leave.
Honestly, I dont believe the UK is out of the EU, before they have cut the last ties, and the is pulled up. This story has been long, whit many, MANY, wawes, captains, different directions and delayed deadlines.
If something unthinkable happens, in the next days and weeks, months, my response is - nothing to see here, move along.
It's been voted, no more moats to cross. What are you talking about exactly?
5
@Andy
He is talking about Brexit in name only. Chances are, the British gov't will find a fig leaf to cover up the further extension, perhaps an indefinite extension of the status quo. Great Britain will continue to trade with Europe, Great Britain will continue to comply with EU directives. Any other course is unthinkable because the economic disruption would be too much. Or so some say.
9