In just the past two decades, we have three viral pandemic originating from China, specifically from Chinese's penchant for wild animals. When will the Chinese people take stock on this fact? When will their government? Or globally, the Chinese people's love for wild animals might just be the death of us.
8
I think it is wise that Chinese authorities are accepting help from international experts to control the ongoing virus. It is scary to know that many people are fleeing and trying to keep themselves safe, but at the same time, risking others health. I am relieved to know that many countries are being extremely cautious when it comes to travelers coming in and out. I hope this virus gets controlled and no more people have to die. Very scary time to be alive.
5
All the infected cases were people who have traveled to Wuhan in January. What about the people who traveled there in December when infections of the virus had already started but not yet publicly known? If the incubation period is said to be two weeks, seriously, where were all those travelers in December? Did none of them get infected, or....? This is the flu season in United States, how do we know if the corona-virus infections/deaths were hidden as regular flu?
3
@Doodle
The chance of getting infected early (when there may only be 50 infected people in a city of millions) is much lower than later on when thousands of infected people may be roaming the streets. Given an estimated transmission rate of just 2.6 transfers for every infected person, the lack of transmission to outsiders in December makes perfect sense.
4
@Doodle
I did not consider this. This is scary to think about because as we know of, this virus just became public. How long was the virus active? Do the flu and corona-virus infections have similar symptoms? All I have to stay is stay clean and wash your foods. Protect yourselves!!
1
Wash your hands frequently and Lysol all high-touch surfaces, as with flu season prevention.
This may sound rude, but another helpful trick is that if someone coughs on you, tell them they’re disgusting and need to learn better hygiene. We underestimate the value of calling people out for gross behavior. I used to work in an elementary school, one of the germiest places on the planet, and calling out bad hygiene was very effective during flu season. People need to realize that we each play a role in preventing the spread of infectious disease.
If elementary kids can understand it, so can adults. And it’s not being “OCD” to sanitize surfaces before touching them, or to use a wet wipe on your face and hands if someone coughs on or near you. It’s common sense.
8
Well, according to The NY Times, “they” have thankfully apparently figured out formula/code/whatever of the corona virus, so can we expect a vaccine in about a year, or hopefully much sooner?
There are reportedly two or three companies working on the vaccine, and there is some collaboration apparently
Knock on wood, let’s not “jinx” anything, because luck is surely needed
I read on the internet business Global News service reports that Geovax, Atlanta, is apparently working with a
Wuhan lab/company
I’m sure there is much going on, most of which I am not equipped
qualified to understand
What is worrisome is the apparently rapid spreading of the virus
And Ebola has not been extinguished
1
I doubt that China - or any government - wants the world to believe that this outbreak is anything but a naturally occurring 'cross over' at a live animal market but that is looking to be more and more unlikely.
Information has been published linking the Wuhan Institute of Virology - a level 4 biohazard containment lab opened in 2017 - to research studying some of the world's most dangerous pathogens.
In November the institute posted that it was seeking to hire one or two post-doc fellows, who will use "bats to research the molecular mechanism that allows Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses to lie dormant for a long time without causing diseases."
This is a job posting for the lab of Dr. Peng Zhou, Ph.D., a leader of the Bat Virus Infection and Immunization Group at the WUhan Institute.
It appears that China was conducting research specifically focused on the type of virus at large and on the mechanisms in bats which allowed them to carry virulent viruses without showing symptoms.
More information can be found via a search on the person noted above. Too much information is available to dismiss this report out of hand.
3
Actual numbers help keep perspective on these things. If the numbers coming out of China are correct, the corona virus is killing about 2% of the diagnosed cases. The 1918 influenza pandemic infected about 500 million and killed 20-50 million, 4-10% of the cases. The SARS outbreak killed 9.6% of the diagnosed cases. For comparison the annual flu in the US currently kills about 0.13 % of the cases.
2
@Paul
The problem in these numbers is the fact that very early in an outbreak of a new virus the only number you can use for mortality rates is "death/diagnosed" rates - and the only people who get diagnosed are those who get hospitalized. If you want to compare to other viruses like the flu you should use death/hospitalized rates. That is by no means perfect but a lot better than comparing to total infections in a matured epidemic. Later when testing catches up and numbers become more reflective of total infection numbers the mortality rate goes down.
4
The WHO does not seem to be publishing any of the usual statistics of sex, age and info on preexisting health conditions of the people who have died of this virus on their situation reports. They have done this for every other outbreak- why not this one?
This lack of information and their strangely subdued response seems very out of sync with the photographs of masked hysteria coming from Wuhan.
I am really hoping that this is not a “Gee, we probably should have...” moment in the making.
12
@BT
I'm hoping that this has nothing to do with viruses being 'studied' at a level 4 biohazard lab just built in Wuhan.
We my manage to get a significant reduction in the world's population without WWIII.
2
The Australian government has totally dropped the ball on this. Our summer holidays are ending and children are due back to school. The education department is only telling students with confirmed cases of coronavirus or those who have been in contact with confirmed cases not to go to school. Well excuse me but there are loads of ways a person might have the virus but not be a confirmed case: they don’t go to a doctor, testing takes time, and doctor’s may not pick it up (there have already been such cases). Also, the incubation period is 14 days and a person might spread it during that time without having symptoms. There’s still a lot unknown about this deadly virus. Also, children’s immune systems are not as strong as healthy adults. It would be reasonable to ask all students who have flown in from China to stay away from school for the incubation period. Some top private schools have gone against the government. The government is hiding behind its so-called medical experts. But, what’s really driving this decision? Not offending China, is more important than protecting our kids.
5
@Kay
If you demand that kind of hazzle and expense enforced upon others to perhaps prevent a handful of deaths - then I am sure you agree that all motorized traffic (which causes many thousands of deaths each your) must immediately be banned (back to the old walking and pulling carts). People seem to be willing to impose enormous inconvenience and cost on others, not so much when they are the once paying the price.
1
I guess this is another reason for the United to have open borders¿
In my own personal opinion, this situation is highly frightening. A hospital very close by me apparently has a possibly case of this virus. My friend who was warned that it could be the case. Documents were not released yet as far as I know nor have been told to media. I myself have a poor immune system and is highly susceptible to getting sick as it is. If cases pop up here, it will go everywhere.
1
Another reason not to have free trade with China. Put pressure on them.
1
I'm not sure I would trust a vaccine made in a rush like this, and even with DNA technology where it is I have my doubts that an effective vaccine can be made in a couple of weeks as if we were in a "Star Trek" episode. I did some digging and it wasn't hard to find papers on SARS indicating vaccine candidates actually make things worse. Oh, and they are still working on it.
4
Let’s hope one of these experts convinces Chinese officials to ban once a for all the sale of live animals (bears and, yes, even dogs) adjacent to butchered meat. The causal connection between such practices and these outbreaks is beyond coincidence.
13
@Conservative Democrat
The odds are rapidly decreasing that this outbreak has anything to do with the live animal food market currently being blamed.
Odds are increasing rapidly that this outbreak is directly related to work being done on virulent pathogens carried by bats at the Wuhan Institute of Virulogy. Think bioweapon research.
China is unlikely to admit this - the question is will western media pursue this line or try to keep the story focused on a 'naturally occurring' crossover.
The most disturbing number on the Johns Hopkins tracker is the ratio of deaths to "recovered", whatever that means. It's currently 131/107. We don't have a number for the time between presumed infection and death for those who died.
4
@Frank Knarf
I find it even more disturbing that an otherwise reputable organization like John Hopkins will publish anything depending on a concept like "recovered" when any graduate student at that institutions infectious disease program should know that this early in an epidemic the concept of recovered is meaningless and basically reflects how many people were infected so early in the exploding transmission that they had a chance to recover. You may expect alarmist stupidities from newspapers that make money on scaring people, but I do expect better from a University.
6
I think precaution is warranted, and it’s extremely tragic that over 100 people have died from this disease. However, everything that I’ve read indicates that the people that have died from this tend to be the same groups that are also more likely to die from other diseases like the flu. When a virus comes along that is fatal for young, healthy people I’ll worry more. When that happens, everyone is in big trouble because that means even the healthiest people can’t fight it off. So far, that doesn’t seem to be the case here.
9
So, it’s on every continent and everyone is worried about people traveling from China. Hate to break it to you, but now you have to keep everyone from entering the US. Also, the asymptomatic first two weeks means checking passengers’ temperature is meaningless. It will be everywhere very soon.
4
It's not the total number of deaths reported (now at about 150) but the rate of infection and death that are alarming to health officials. Projections based on the current spread of 2019-nCoV
are very sobering indeed. Health authorities need to treat any arrivals from mainland China with compassionate caution. Limited quarantines seem within reason.
Johns Hopkins has an online coronavirus dashboard that is being updated continuously.
6
Can my cats get the virus when they drink Corona ?
4
Am I supposed to get upset about this? China has a billion and a half people. 130 died of corona virus. I would imagine that over the same period more people than that died of the flu.
9
@MIKEinNYC Talk to an epidemiologist. Or a statistician. No, never mind, It won't help you.
8
My understanding is that Chinese espionage agents stole the coronavirus from a Winnipeg, Canada lab in 2016 and the virus later leaked from the Wuhan bio-terror facility due to its highly engineered virility. All the snake and bat soup live animal market talk is a muddled back story. Xi knows it’s serious and China is at risk. US legislators and the bureaucratic ruling classes appear to be catching up quickly.
5
@Bernie Sanders Libertarian That is possible, or it might just be a conspiracy theory. We know that the Chinese scientists who were removed from the Canadian lab did something wrong, but it's not clear what. In any case the Chinese are scared and the numbers we are getting are not credible.
3
@Bernie Sanders Libertarian maple syrup must inhibit the virus spread
Airport screenings are just for show and essentially worthless.
We should days ago already have begun total ban of EVERY non-citizens from entering the US if they have been in China anytime during the prior 30 days (returning Americans should be required to enter strict quarantine for 15 days).
If this Chinese disease spreads in substantial numbers around the world, then the ban should be extended to stop EVERY non-US citizen from entering the US whether they have been to China or not.
30
@Errol citizenship is a poor criteria to determine whether one works/lives in the US
11
@Errol Globalization. The virus is already on every continent.
6
@Errol US citizens also get sick, I'm told
7
Where’s the plan to control the virus from expanding in the NYC subway system.
29
@Ted take the bus
6
@Ted is there even a single patient diagnosed in NYC?
3
@Ted lol that assumes that the MTA can make a plan and execute on it
2
We have treatments and vaccination for the flu today. When we didn't (1918 flu pandemic) 30% of the world population was infected and 10% of them died. That was 50 million dead, 500 million infected out of a population of 1.8 billion. A global pandemic, likely to come from a form of coronavirus, which spreads easily person to person, could kill five times that today. That would be 2.5 billion infected and 250 million dead.
10
One of the most distressing developments are reports that pharmaceutical companies and the WHO is saying that there is only minimal funding/interest/resources for further development of vaccines and medicines for drug-resistant diseases, these cheery reports coinciding with the coronavirus debacle we now face.
Unless the NIH and CDC get their collective acts together, there will come a day when one of these viral and bacterial horrors will mutate into something on par with HIV, or maybe even worse, although I can’t imagine anything worse at the moment than HIV, but temperamental Mother Nature has a way of going dark side like a proverbial woman scorned.
3
@Larry
Pharma companies don’t work for free.
3
from Ontario Canada's department of public health...
"Note that definitive testing for 2019-nCoV is not currently available. Testing protocols will be revised as more information becomes available."
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/laboratory-services/test-information-index/wuhan-novel-coronavirus
2
Yes, new viruses can be frightening, mainly because of the potential for mutation. At the moment this virus has not mutated and its infection/mortality rate is far less than the common flu. On average 60,000-80,000 people die in the USA from the common flu......wait...wait. I know what you’ll say next, ‘but there have been so many cases in such a short amount of time’....ok, 4,500 confirmed cases, but hey maybe the government is lying, so lets say it is 45,000 since December. Sound fair? Ok. Great. Globally there are between 3 to 5 million severe cases of common flu per year....most falling within a 22-week period. Now, I am not great at math but hmmmm.....given that happens yearly I can kind of see why the WHO and other health organizations are trying to calm the panic of irrational adults in places like New York that, statistically, have a greater chance of dying from chronic constipation than the novel coronavirus.
13
@Mike Sniffles
hey Mike...there are no accurate numbers of those infected, China might be testing 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10000 there is no way to know.
the average mortality rate in a bad year from common flu is .03 percent...MERS mortality rate is 30 to 40 percent; SARS mortality rate is 10 percent and this current betacoronavirus is of the same strain.
8
@Mike Sniffles
"greater chance of dying from chronic constipation"
This is so funny. Thanks so much for the laugh!
4
@Mike Sniffles Assuming the first infected human was less than two months ago, you may want to fiddle with some epidemiological models using various estimates of R(0), incubation period, lethality etc.
President should send some of our valiant TSA agents to China to assist in passenger screening and quarantine control as a token of goodwill.
7
@Bernie Sanders Libertarian With a population of around 1.7 billion, why would the Chinese need more people?
3
A plane load of American citizens including General Consulate staffers are on their way back to America. Let's show the world their human rights will not be violated and mix them into the public right away. Everything we said about China should apply to ourselves. Don't be a hypocrite.
5
A Prayer for The People of China, and it must be very frightening to live, or to ail through this epidemic time in its history.
The world is not only watching, but taking action to send added relief emergency assistance, and courage will be needed in generous supply for both those taken ill, and those with knowledge of how to save lives.
Responsible measures are now being taken around the Globe to contain Coronavirus from spreading, and if some of the Public-at-large here in America are able to help in some way, please keep Us informed.
11
I've seen no reporting on whether the hundreds of Americans evacuated from Wuhan on a State Department chartered flight will be quarantined when they arrive in California.
12
just reading update now, people with this virus have traveled all over the world. China shutting down cities is way late, its already out of China. I think you can expect this to get alot worse before it gets better, particularly in China where the government does not tell the truth.
8
for those drawing comfort from the Kabuki theater of "screening" should reflect on the FACT that those infected and contagious will not show symptoms for as long as two weeks and maybe not even then.
sweet dreams.
3
No one knows yet if the virus can be transmitted prior to symptoms such as fever occur. No one really trusts the Chinese government on reporting the extent of the outbreak . We should quarantine anyone arriving in this country from China. People are very scared for good reason.
48
@Pepperman
Unfortunately the horse is out of the barn and the people who have been here for two weeks well we hope that they were not contagious since we have no vaccine
Unfortunately hope is not a stragedy
5
@Pepperman nearly every expert in viral epidemics has gone on record explaining why your radical idea to detain people will not work. I strongly suggest you do a google search and read what these global health experts have to say. In the meantime, did you get a flu shot? That's here, that's now, and flu can kill you.
9
@Tony I love the mix of tragedy and strategy! Unfortunately you meant only strategy, but without a strategy, there is tragedy. [I always mess up saying both diligent and vigilant...]
3
China has supposedly and finally banned the sale of wild animals, but it's too late in this case. You would think they would have learned, after the same thing happened with SARS. And we're letting people in China fly here, before they're superficially checked for the virus. If a bus driver caught it from tourists, what about the long flights from China to California? Better get ready for this one, folks. Let's hope it doesn't mutate slightly, like we've seen with influenza.
75
Mixing politics and authoritarianism with epidemiological practices in assesssing and controlling the extent of potentially global disease pandemics is a recipe for disaster. That is to say, health agencies all over the world like the CDC, WHO and the CCDC can be overly influenced when politicians think that the disease control recommendations are unfavorable to the respective politicians in power.
46
I don't believe a word China says about the number of cases, screening, protective measures, or anything else. Until they clean up their agricultural habits and the way they treat livestock and wild animals, such diseases will continue to arise on their soil. And we all know that's not going to happen.
117
@KJ Actually, it is China's failure to embrace "factory farming" that causes China to be the source of many new pathogens, that cross from animals to humans.
Most Chinese farms resemble U.S. farms of a century ago. People, poultry and pigs (and cattle) mingle freely. Pigs can host human and bird flu viruses. Flu viruses readily trade genetic material and so mutate constantly. Pigs are a perfect mixing vessel from which new flu strains emerge.
If China had embraced "factory farming" pigs would never get near poultry and vice-versa. Further, "farmed" poultry isn't allowed out-of-doors, where over-flying wild birds can deliver the bird flu virus in their droppings.
Finally, because pigs are subject to many diseases, human access to "farmed" pigs is limited to workers, who wear protective gear and disinfect their boots before entering pig enclosures.
China's leaders plan to encourage the spread of industrial pig-raising, to improve disease containment. That may be less pleasant for the bids and animals. But it will reduce the likelihood of new diseases arising from virus-sharing.
8
Query. Who is exerting pressure on the World Health Organization to downplay this growing global health crisis? If the global risk assessment for the coronavirus is now deemed to be “high,” why hasn’t the response from WHO escalated accordingly?
153
@Beatrice
"why hasn’t the response from WHO escalated accordingly?"
The WHO is a political organization rather than one guided by science and global wellbeing.
China is also preventing another country with Corona infections (Taiwan) from participating in the WHO, thus obstructing effective cooperation and endangering people globally.
28
@Beatrice If you watch WHO's coronavirus press conference from last Thursday, the answer is clear. You can find it on youtube, posted by USA Today. Pay particular attention to these times in the video: 13:45, 22:45, and 24:45
5
Follow the money.....
14
If this virus can be present WITHOUT symptoms for up to two weeks how does screening for symptoms work?
Other reports have noted that Wuhan is the location of a level 4 containment lab - a place where work is done using highly contagious viruses.
China has has outbreaks occurring elsewhere when samples escaped from other labs.
If this virus IS the product of bioengineering - as part of work creating a bioweapon - then things are going to get a lot worse. The long asymptomatic period would be highly advantageous in a bioweapon - giving it time to travel without any symptoms showing. The reported R0 rate is reported by a researcher in Britain to be higher than reported as well.
There are also many reports out of China that cause of death is not being accurately reported in many deaths and the number of sick is vastly under reported.
44
@cynicalskeptic
the only effective screening involves blood work and the Chinese have exhausted their supply of testing kits and it is not clear they have the laboratory capacity to handle the number of test required to make any meaningful screening.
6
@cynicalskeptic you do realize that the common cold is caused by coronaviruses, right?
4
@Multimodalmama
This hardly seems to be a 'common cold' - your point is what?
It is not clear what the actual infection rate or death count is. There are clear reports that cause of death is NOT being reported accurately in a deliberate effort to keep the official death rate low. The R 0 - reproduction rate which indicates how contagious it is is not clear either. On British researcher has it at double the rate claimed.
China seems to be underreporting the severity of this outbreak - while taking extreme measures to contain it.
Whether naturally occurring or an escaped bioengineered virus, the ease of world-wide transportation makes it all too easy for an infection to spread.
6
Another brilliant plan to close the barn door after the horses have the left the barn. If the incubation for infection is up to 14 days and people are contagious while clinically symptomatic, then airport screening is totally useless as one person without symptoms could infect 2 or 3 people on a flight who could then travel onto other destinations and infect 2 to 3 people and by the time the original traveler becomes acutely ill, literally hundreds of people will be contagious but asymptomatic. What we have here is a version of the Dark Winter war game run from June 22-23, 2001, by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies, the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention Terrorism. The result of that war game and every wargame involving the threat of biological agents and pandemic risk is that prevention fails and contagion spreads faster than governments can comprehend and react to the risk. Only AI could recognize and stop contagion fast enough to prevent a worst case global pandemic which is what we are witnessing in slow motion. No nation is prepared for this and no nation will be able to cope with the disaster once containment fails (and it already has failed).
1
@American Akita Team With respect, I disagree.
When ebola spread to Western Africa - Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone - it quickly made its presence known. Unlike this corona virus infection - the initial symptoms of which resemble flu - ebola symptoms are hard to miss.
The instant response should be have been a total shut-down of air travel within the three-country region and the rest of the world. Most residents of the three countries are too poor to afford air travel: only the wealthy minority would have been affected.
Road travel in the region is for the brave, especially in the rainy season, when ebola arrived.
Thus, ebola could have been contained. An ebola-infected air traveler from Monrovia (Liberia) to Lagos (Nigeria) collapsed in the airport on arrival. Happily, Nigerian authorities at once hospitalized the man, who soon died. To their eternal credit, the Nigerians found and monitored all, who had had contact with the sick traveler. Ebola didn't spread far in Nigeria.
Thus, all flights from China should be grounded, except for evacuation flights. The flight crews should wear hazmat suits and not leave the plane. Passengers arriving on such flights should be quarantined for a fortnight. The planes should be thoroughly de-contaminated (inside and outside).
Thereafter, no flights to or from China should be allowed, until this disease has run its source.
Harsh? Perhaps. But sailors on a ship that hits a rock and starts to flood rush to close water-tight doors.
5
It is misleading and irresponsible for an International expert to state that a person who is asymptomatic or symptom free is Corona virus free. Any virologist will tell you that after exposure to infection there is an incubation period during which viruses multiply without symptoms and could potentially transmit infection to a person in contact with them or are sharing the same air. Agreed that once symptoms are manifested as fever, sneezing, coughing, shortness of breath the rate of transmission will be much higher. Sensitive testing of patients suspected of exposure will be required to detect the virus during early stages of the Corona infection.
7
The US should deny landing rights to all planes where the flight otriginated in China.
14
@MacIver where would they go? China don’t want the sick.
1
@MacIver
you mean all those not chartered by the US government.
1
@MacIver how about boats?
How're we going to get our cheap Made in China goods?
1
Several days ago I commented on the existence of a bio weapons research facility in Wuhan. Maybe it’s just a “coincidence “ but I don’t like “coincidences “. The WAPO is now reporting on this and how many now suspect this virus did not originate in the market as was claimed and that the timeline for the outbreak is off. I’d love it if the NYT would put some effort into this. I think this is important as if it’s a bio weapon that got “loose”, this is important to know.
33
@Greenie – The Washington Post or the Washington Times? Very different papers.
3
@Greenie we know a virus is loose, so what difference will it make if it is such a facility?
2
@Is wrote "we know a virus is loose, so what difference will it make if it is such a facility?"
The difference between a virus jumping from wild animals to humans and making a bio weapon, I'm not knowledge if other countries are okay with the Chinese Communist Regime inventing a bio weapon. I certainly don't feel comfortable about that.
1
And there is an experimental virology laboratory about 30km from the market. (Just saying)
13
@CK Why look 30kms away - the live animal market itself was the experimental virology laboratory.
19
Funny how so many people distrust the Chinese government when our own government is the biggest liar of them all.
36
@Eric,
You can always go to China and try to stay there.
You can bask in all their honesty.
10
@Eric
If you've not lived in the Communist China, you would never understand what is like there. Don't make the mistake of thinking that the Chinese Communist Regime and the US are morally equivalent. One is a democracy (notwithstanding Trump) and the other is a vicious dictatorship that observes no bounds in asserting its power. The Chinese Communist Regime is an authoritarian Orwellian nightmare.
If you believe in Emperor Xi, what is the reason living in Minneapolis?
4
@Eric
One more thing: it's not funny to compare which government is the biggest liar when you're unable to provide evidences.
Back in 2003, the WHO sent inspectors to Beijing to check their quarantine facilities. The Communist China had claimed it had no SARS cases, so when the inspectors arrived, all the SARS patients were taken out of hospitals and driven around in ambulances while the inspections took place. The plan was to deceive and lie to the WHO.
In Hong Kong, the SARS outbreak was at its most serious in March of 2003, a month after the Chinese New Year. Four months earlier, in early December, some news outlets had reported that in a couple of towns in Southern Guangdong, all supplies of bleach had been sold out in days. SARS had been around for at least four months before it was identified.
This is likely the case. China lies. People in Wuhan are suffering. Enjoy your life in Minneapolis.
5
Trump is completely incompetent;hates Science and believes in conspiracy theories. We are in grave danger;not just the virus but from our GOP leaders.
32
What’s gonna happen when a million plus people from all over the World head to Florida for the February 2, 2020 SuPeRBoWL? They will be able to call it the “Petri Dish Bowl”!
We can all hope for the best but it seems like our health organizations are under estimating this 14 day, human to human deadly virus that is doubling its cases by the day, Worldwide.
14
@Bay Any world where a million people from "all over" show up is not a world I'd prefer to live on.
2
The Superbowl must be cancelled. It will save lives.
2
I found it regrettable that NYT came up with a title of "Cases Up Nearly 60%". This type of eye-catching sensational titles does not reflect true journalism. Any medical professional will tell you that the confirmed cases are not true cases. They are what they are -- confirmed cases. Many factors contribute to the total number of confirmed cases, such as availability of test kits and medical professionals who can conduct these tests.
There is no need to stir public hysteria. I have much higher expectation for the Times than this.
26
Does anyone know if posts/packages from China are ok to open?
@CD no- and since iPhones are made in China, they may carry the virus.
Boil them in water for 30 minutes before using them.
4
If Republicans need an example of why blind loyalty to a dictator is dangerous, this is it. I mean, I would’ve thought Chernobyl was a good enough example, but here we are...
You see, the best and the brightest don’t like to work for governments or companies that dictate what they have to say or how they have to act. Because that stifles innovation. It also undercuts the mission. When a government or a company places a higher demand on partisan loyalty than they do on pursuit of innovation, facts, and improving the public welfare, then they end up with a whole bunch of mediocre yes men who don’t know how to respond to an emergency.
The best and the brightest, truly, would have already been all over this. They’d have immediately assembled emergency international communicable disease response teams, and set up transparent networks for information dissemination in the early stages, when the virus first presented.
But because China placed a higher value on its political appearance, it tried to suppress facts and reality, and now their country is in crisis. It’s the perfect allegory for climate change, industrial pollution, and political corruption in the United States. Trump has never had to face a true crisis. I pray to thousands of higher powers that day will never come. Because if you want to know how he would respond: look at China.
9
There are 4 confirmed cases in Bavaria (Germany), all working in the same company and there are at least 40 people who were in close contact with them. The first guy went to work although he was sick the whole weekend. How cool! And the kids in the kindergarten where he sent his own kids? Will his kids also turn sick and how many others? Irresponsible workaholics, that's the only comment I can have at the moment. Sick people should stay home, no matter what. But martyrs are the favored employees.
23
Many comment on the cruelty of selling animals in cages at the wet markets. Yes, it's a heart-saddening sight to see, but unless you're a vegetarian, most of the meat that you eat are also from cruel, crowded farms. Some are privileged enough to be able to afford free-range meat in a push for more humane treatment of animals, but that is not a current reality for most others in the world.
Modern agriculture has simply removed consumers from having to witness or face the reality of animal slaughtering and, in fact, has turned the wet markets onto an industrial scale. Wet markets as a concern for public health is a real concern, but to argue it's animal cruelty is the epitome of hypocrisy.
12
I'm slightly perplexed about the hysteria here -this morning we were reminded tht 8,000 people have alread died of the regular influenza in the U.S. this year (CBS Morning News). While this is certainly a concern and no one wants a disease to spread, I'm unclear as to why it is more of a health emergency than a normal flu outbreak, except for the fact there is no vaccine at this point. However, even with vaccination flu deaths in the thousands occur annually. What is the percentage death rate for this virus as opposed to the seasonal flu, for example?
20
@dairyfarmersdaughter I've read on various sources that this has a mortality rate of around 4%, but even that is hard to confirm at this point because we just don't know the full picture and the official statistics are hard to trust. The flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1% in developed countries. There are various charts and graphs on the internet comparing this to SARS (also a coronavirus): the initial findings are showing this is infecting people more rapidly. Hysteria is not helpful. Measured concern is called for.
15
@Joe C At this point, evidence suggests that this version of coronavirus spreads more easily than SARS but has a much lower mortality rate. The numbers out of China are questionable. I tend to think that the total death is accurate and the total number of cases is severely underreported, which translates to a lower mortality rate than 4%. The fact that no death has recorded outside China also suggests that the death rate is not significantly higher than flu.
8
@dairyfarmersdaughter
no hysteria, just simple math.
MERS mortality rate was 40 percent of those infected.
SARS mortality rate is 10 percent of those infected.
the current SARS variant loose primarily in China cannot be detected in those infected for up to two weeks when they might or might not show symptoms.
currently China is testing perhaps 1 in 10?; 1 in 100?; 1 in 1000? no way of knowing as they no longer have any test kits for the virus.
3
When will our Siberian President Donald Trump Sr. who always claims to know more about everything than anyone offer his expertise on how to deal with the looming coronavrus to the China and the world?
5
China has finally accepted expert medical help from the outside, to be coordinated with WHO. Such expertise was apparently not high enough on their technology theft list. But it reflects their disdain for the well being of their citizenry, except when their plight threatens the communist regime. It must have been a hard pill for Xi to swallow.
12
@Rudy Ludeke
True but the world is a small place now and we don't want to have this disease coming into the states. We need to be prepared and every person in the medical community needs to know what is going on and helping patients vs doing what they usually do when people arrive at the ER room which isn't much of anything.
These numbers need to be updated and we need to know what is going on. Ignorance is not bliss
5
These are the numbers from 9am GMT, they have been no real updates for more than 12 hours.
5
My question is if this virus is more problematic than the typical strain of flu. Is it killing healthy young adults or untreated kids or untreated elderly? Depending on the answer we either don’t really need to be afraid yet or need much harsher measures than what we are currently taking.
3
It's good that airport screening has started. Better late than never!! Theoretically, it is less effective than to start say, last week, because by now, an innumerable number of people who are infected with the virus without symptoms have already left China and already arrived in the US. incubation period is about 2 weeks anyways. Effort is delayed given how the number of symptomatic cases grow exponentially but the effort is better than none. Government funding and action are needed in situations like this. and when this is over, funding is needed to prevent future outbreaks by funding the study of animal-derived viruses--think of how much of the global economy is saved with a few million dollars.
5
I thought they've started screening people from China at all the major airports? Not that it helps much since symptoms can develop later. But I've heard of accounts of people flying from China to NY and the West Coast in the last couple of days with no check at all, not even questions about where they are originating from?! The U.S. response to this is a bit head scratching. Banning all flights from China is not realistic, but there should be self imposed 14 day quarantine for all travelers from China at this point, and promise of fines for those who break quarantine and end up affecting others.
5
Face masks are completely sold out online and in major city pharmacies, especially around chinatowns. If this isn't deadlier than influenza, I doubt they'd be panicking as such, but it is; they know the real potential for infection and information hiding, they've lived through SARS. Travel ban to the country would be a good idea. Visas should be extended/denied while the pandemic is still active.
10
@M. Paire the only thing that makes it potentially deadlier than the flu is the fact that there is no vaccine.
4
@M. Paire These masks are of little use. Note that those, who treat those known to be infected, wear hazmat suits with respirators.
Fabric masks - whether paper or cloth - do not seal tightly against the wearer's face. Further, these masks do not protect the wearer's eyes. This virus may be able to enter via eyes.
10
Yep. And companies like Walmart have been accepting orders but not delivering. Ordered some a week ago but it’s not showing up it appears. We are on our own folks.
"Airports expand screenings".
Feel good effort.
No indication it will help much.
Symptoms are not present for several days AFTER the person is contagious.
Plus those people can take medications that will reduce temperatures.
The realistic thing to do if we are concerned is do like the Chinese and not let people into this country from China.
Period. Although it is probably already too late for that.
But we will keep spending money or something that is at best only partially effective.
12
@esp Companies are already dissuading nonessential travel there. I doubt any company lacks internet connectivity and remote conferencing technology. Travel ban needed to happen last week, now, tomorrow.
And we need to re-evaluate any and all human activity with unnatural close proximity to wildlife. This is nature's way of saying "You reap what you sow"
3
@esp do a google search on what experts think of your ideas of quarantine. I'd rather listen to them than some armchair "just so" story.
2
@Multimodalmama
For your information, the United diplomatic workers from that town in China are being evacuated from China and flown to Alaska where they WILL BE Quarantined.
The Chinese government doesn't want to "lose face" on this matter, thus their reluctance to accept international help. I read somewhere that five million people escaped Wunan before it was closed, leaving eight million behind. Is that right? Isn't an epidemic supposed to be contained? Those five million must be scattered around the globe, by now.
18
@Mike C.
The outbreak occurred during the Chinese New Year holiday. It is like Thanksgiving here where it is a massive travel holiday. The 5 million did not escape, it was just traveling for the holidays. And they went to visit relatives within China.
4
For all those panicking about this virus, here's some important perspective:
1. if you haven't had a flu shot this year, get one. Flu is here right now and kills tens of thousands of people in the US each year.
2. understand that for most people this is a self-limiting and miserable, but not lethal or dangerous virus. That is part of why it is spreading so fast - it isn't debilitating for most people.
3. Think about where you work or go to school or live. Are parents harassed by administrators about school absences? Are workers able to take time off to recover? Are people forced to come in sick to work? Are teachers allowed to have sick time without harassment or peer pressure? Start working on those issues and your community will be more resilient.
62
If something like this originated in the US, would we be prepared. We need universal health care precisely for this type of situation. Otherwise, infected people without healthcare will spread it to the general population. Sadly, the Republicans do not understand this at all and seek to increase profits for their corporate friends at the expense of society.
18
@Jackson it has everything to do with it. Sick people not going to the doctor because they can't afford to? Hello!
5
@Multimodalmama they have universal health care in China, but this still happened
2
If this was a virus from the Middle East we’d have already banned them from entering the US
9
@PhD please recap what happened when a coronovirus epidemic did emerge in the Middle East. Hint: it happened more recently than SARS.
2
This seems to be getting a fair amount of media coverage. However, I am more concerned about what is NOT being said. Could this turn into a worldwide pandemic like the Spanish flu of 1918? With 1/5 of the population wiped out? If there was ever a time to err on the side of caution, it is now.
19
@Cate R The figures they mention are the same as they were 12 hours ago...
The lack of change seems more concerning than a steady rise. They keep saying 'more than 100' deaths...is that 199? It is odd...
8
@Cate R The death toll of the Spanish Flu is estimated closer to 5% of the world's population, not 1/5th of it.
3
@Cate R Absent a further mutation, this corona virus won't give rise to a repeat of the end-World War I flu pandemic - caused by a bird flu virus (Type H1N1) - which killed some 50,000,000 world-wide, an estimated two percent of those infected.
This virus has circulated for about a month. Were it as virulent as was the end-World War I flu virus, there would be tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands ill.
While China's authorities plainly have no clue as to how many are ill, they likely have a good idea of the number of fatalities. Even if the published number - just over a hundred - is off by a factor of five, the corona virus is far less lethal than was the end-World War I flu virus.
The virus may have mutated. The number of cases outside of China grows far more slowly than does the number in China. That suggests those who left China quickly, may have an older and less-transmissible form of this virus.
Therefore, the prudent course is to shut-down all flights from China, and to quarantine for a fortnight, anyone, who has left China within the past two weeks.
Quarantines are akin to closing water-tight doors on a ship, that has hit a rock. Sealing-off compartments open to the sea saves the ship. Sailors get this. Politicians - who aren't sailors - not so much.
8
Videos on social media in China have appeared claiming that 70,000+ people are infected. The people in these videos say that they are medical professionals and that the Chinese government is engaged in a cover-up.
Given China's history of covering up negative events, SARS, and their seemingly overkill public response, quartinting 10+ cities, I suspect the situation is a lot worse than is being portrayed.
31
106 deaths are tragic - sure it will climb - hopefully not as high as the yearly average loss of about 35,000 per year from the common flu.
14
@Russell ***********
the average upper limit of those infected with the common flu in the US is 20 percent of the population of 327,000,000, or 65,400,000.
of that 65,400,000 the upper limit of those who die is 20,000—a mortality rate of .03 percent.
how can opinion and real concrete knowledge be sifted through? will the internet sometimes help and other times cause fear, distraction, and bad decision making?
2
So out of over 4,000 cases so far 100 people have died. The number of deaths is sure to tick up a but considering 200,000-600,000 die every year from the flu - it’s actually not looking like the new virus is all that strong. It isn’t anywhere close to being as dangerous as SARS (which had a fatality rate close to 10%) and not anywhere remotely close to Ebola (50%). Definitely good to be catious of course!
8
@Anna Using the numbers we have right now, the estimated death rate is about 2%. A rough estimate based on US CDC numbers gives a death rate for flu of .14% (based on estimates of 37,000 deaths/year and 27,000,000 cases/year, which are each the average of the extremes given on the CDC website). So this estimate suggests that the death rate from this coronavirus is 15X greater than the flu death rate, and if the virus turns out to be as contagious as flu and we don't take any special measures to prevent its spread (leading to about 27,000,000 cases like the flu), then we would expect 500,000 deaths in the US alone.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
4
@New World The Spanish flu had a fatality rate of 10-20% and spread during a completely different era (war, famine, extreme poverty). I understand that people are worried but I think there’s good reason to not compare it to the worst case historical scenario. This may sound crass, but most of those who have gotten very ill/died are either very old or have an underlying health condition. Few, otherwise healthy young people are getting very ill or have died. Caution is good (!) but at this point anxiety/fear is most likely overblown (unless you are in Wuhan and elderly/or have a health condition - of course!)
5
@Anna I suspect that the death rate is actually lower than that. Remember, that coronaviruses often cause common cold-like symptoms or none at all. We may only be seeing the severe cases.
1
Why does the world continue to believe the reports put out by the brutal regime of the number of deaths from the virus in China ?
When, if ever have they announced truth numbers of deaths from their earthquakes, mud slides or concentration camps or any catastrophe to hit China? They say 100 deaths I think it’s safe to say the real number is in the thousands by now.
147
@George You could not be more right! The Chinese Officials always understate the number of death tolls, especially on the infectious diseases. Cannot be trusted 100%!
22
I am pretty sure they have thought about how to precisely publish their numbers. The fact that people fall right for that is crazy to me.
7
@George
So far over 70 reported cases outside of China and not a single death. The reported mortality rates in China seems a little high if anything (although not likely being due to deliberate over reporting).
12
People arriving from China, for that matter, from any where in the world, who show symptoms of the coronavirus, should be either quarantined or sent back to the nation from which they came. I prefer the later, at their own expense, of course. Thank you.
4
@Southern Boy I'm betting that it is already here. It doesn't debilitate people, incubates for two weeks, etc. I would also wager that it didn't jump from a market to some hapless elders - most respiratory epidemics spin up in schools and universities long before they become evident. This is a flu-like illness and it is not severe in young healthy people. Many probably shrugged it off as a cold or flu, and were sent home from the doctor and told to rest. Only when people started dying would such a thing be noticed as out of the ordinary.
1
@Southern Boy They should be quarantined. Sending them back would put others on the return flight at risk.
@Southern Boy Trump should be sent out of the country for his 2020 Budget plan.
President Donald Trump’s 2020 budget proposal includes $25 billion in cuts to Social Security over the next 10 years
4
Screening for a virus that can be transmitted by people not presenting symptoms is meaningless.
"Reported illnesses have ranged from infected people with little to no symptoms to people being severely ill and dying." the CDC reported yesterday.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html
9
No worries. Trump will use his Sharpie pen to draw a line around China on a map, effectively quarantining the entire country. We're safe.
97
@Rupert
Best comment so far this year!
2
A planet of ~8 billion people, often packed into cities of 10s of millions with almost instant international travel combined with adaptable organism (viruses) ready to jump from animals to humans and I’m surprised we’ve lasted this long without a deadly pandemic. Nature will have the last laugh at our completely unnatural civilization.
30
@AL to say that humans creating cities isn't natural is farcical on its face. Sorry, but humans create cities as part of our natural behavior. Natural is becoming a meaningless word.
3
The hazmat suits in these photos remind me of the movie Outbreak. Not reassuring at all.
3
@NYTimes: It is unclear to me how many of these new cases are actually newly infected individuals, and how many were already infected, but are just being diagnosed now. Can you ask some experts what their best estimate is and report?
This question is far from academic: If these new cases are mostly newly infected patients, then this new corona virus is quite virulent and spreads quickly. If the increase in numbers is mainly due to better ability to properly diagnose the patients, it's still serious, but not spreading like wildfire. The first scenario can require aggressive containment, including preemptive quarantine also here in the US, the latter a much less restrictive approach. Thanks!
4
Concerned about the WHO’s PR handling of this epidemic . I bet that if this were happening 10, 20 yrs ago, when China was not as powerful on the world stage, they would have been much more forceful in their risk evaluation. Once again, politics and power take a back seat to science and reality.
8
I'm not shouting "fire" in a crowded theater.
Accurate science based Information prevents panic.
The timing of Netflix's recently released [January 8, 2020] production "Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak" was exquisite.
8
There's something else - something ominous - happening here that we are not being told about. We shouldn't rush to assume that the Chinese government (or the American government, for that matter) is being honest with its reporting about this strange new virus. My calculations suggest this virus may become fatal for at least 2-3 percent of those infected. That is VERY scary. We need the truth, and we need it now.
5
I don't want to panic, but does anyone know of a good deal on a hazmat/biohazard suit?
4
@New World
Not sold out. I found some but they're made in China. Never mind.
Only "business critical" travel allowed by General Motors. Another way of saying "if you can make us a buck, we're willing to sacrifice you." Capitalism at its finest.
18
Not surprised at all, and expect the numbers to go far higher. Stands to reason that a country/culture like China, would have tried to squash any leak of what was happening...to hide it from the public at first...until of course, it was too late...and then they had no choice but to acknowledge the problem.
I too am a bit worried, living in a place such as NYC, and with such a large Chinese population. I mean, I don't even have to spend much time in our Chinatown, without understanding that with our subway system, and all kinds of people and travellers in close proximity to each other...well.... we are all at risk...esp. in big and international cities with lots of travellers/tourists here...
4
@Lynn honestly, do you think this would be reported accurately in Russia? Or even the United States of Trump?
4
"After repeated offers of assistance, China will allow in international health experts to help with research and containment."
That is great, after you let the horse out of the barn, there is no putting it back. As usual, they hide the facts and we have a mess.
2
Unfortunately, testing at ports of entry, even if they are using virus test kits, is an incomplete approach. If the virus spreads between passengers on the plane, not an unlikely event based on what we know, passengers infected on the plane may not yet have sufficient virus in their blood to test positive.
So in this critical period, the US and other countries are taking only half-measures to prevent the spread of the virus, presumably in the name of minimizing disruption to the normal flow of business. But if the virus takes hold here, it's likely that disruption to business will be much greater, to say nothing of the human impact.
8
@Nicholas
Why would you think that disruption to business would be any worse than the disruption from the much worse flu epidemic we face every year ?
4
@Ivan See my response to your earlier comment, and see the CDC page on annual flu burden at:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
A reasonable estimate from the data on this page gives a flu mortality rate in the US of .14% (~37,000 annual deaths from ~27,000,000 cases, with these two numbers being the averages taken from the extremes given on the site). Since our current best estimate of the death rate of this coronavirus is 2%, our current estimate of the relative mortality is that this virus is about 15X deadlier than flu. It is too early to know accurately how contagious it is, but it may be as contagious or more so than flu. If it were as contagious as flu, and we treat it as we do flu, without special measures, then we would estimate about 15X as many deaths, or 500,000 deaths in the US. An epidemic of this scale would certainly cause massive disruption.
@Ivan The mortality rate is many times higher than seasonal flu. If containment measures are too slow or passive the impact could become overwhelming globally
Yes, we should better contain seasonal flu spread - but that doesn't mean we shouldn't respond to this as a potential major health emergency.
1
Voluntary quarantine is advised to respect travelers and patients dignity and promote their sense of responsibility to all. It would certainly be truthful to tell them their personal sacrifice of a few weeks of mobility would likely save many lives from severe illness and worse.
4
@Ivan
The point was, not rules, but appeals to their good nature to care about others. The same goes for a seasonal flu. No one wants to see a sick person at work. Do you have a more pressing concern?
@Ivan Because it doesn't. CDC reports 18/19 seasonal flu mortality rate at approx 1 in 1000. This coranavirus currently kills 25 in every 1000 people infected. Misinformed? Or the intentional viral spread of misinformation? Maybe you can edit your post for the common good.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
1
@PATRICK
Why would you apply such rules to a virus that has half the fatality rate of the flu virus - and not do the same every year for that years flue epidemic?
2
According to this article, there are 4515 confirmed cases of the Coronavirus and 106 deaths. That's a rate of 23 deaths per thousand. As of last Friday, the CDC estimates that 6.4 million people in the U.S have caught the "normal" seasonal flu. If people were dying at the same rate as the early cases of the Coronavirus , that would be almost 150,000 deaths. We better hope that public health services all over the world take this threat very seriously.
15
@Steve
You are comparing apples to oranges. There are an estimated 6.4 million infected with about 120,000 hospitalization and 6,600 deaths from the current seasonal flu. Given that all confirmed cases of this Coronavirus have been hospitalized - the 23 per thousand (2.3%) is about half of the rate of 55 deaths per thousand (5.5%) for the current flu epidemic.
The actual number of people infected with the flu but never getting sick enough to go to the hospital is about 50 times more than the number hospitalized. The exact number of infected but not hospitalized for the new Coronavirus is yet to be determined. But if we expect a 50 fold difference we would expect about 225,000 people who have been infected but never got sick enough to go to the hospital.
4
@Steve there were an estimated 8,200 to 20,000 flu deaths in the United States from 10/1/2019 to 1/18/2020. and that was from the 'normal' flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
5
@Steve
Those reported cases have not been resolved. Of those that have been resolved, there have been 106 deaths and 60 recoveries or about 600 deaths per thousand. That's a frightening ratio, but China's figures are probably not accurate as yet.
3
"I can assure you that there will be a vaccine specific for this Corona virus most likely within 3-6 months"
No you can't.
For those claiming there is a SARS vaccine - there is, but it doesn't work.
The epidemic will play out long before any vaccine is developed.
10
I think residents of all major metro areas and cities should be taking preventive measures, especially when grocery shopping or shopping in department stores, etc.
Think of all the strangers handling food products and merchandise.
Grapes and similar edibles should be washed/rinsed in water with diluted bleach and then rinsed again in plain water. Many smart housewives make this a common practice on a regular basis anyway.
I might even suggest cooking all veggies in the meantime and forget about raw salads for a while.
Even when taking in packages and deliveries from Amazon or whoever, wear gloves, that box has passed through many hands en route to you.
Even the USPS workers wear gloves, so it’s not so silly after all.
Wear disposable medical examination gloves and a mask and wash hands when you get home.
Laugh if you want, but it sure beats being hooked up in an IC unit, sound advice for all, especially for the immune-compromised.
40
@Larry Chan - raw salads? I will never buy any kind of lettuce in a market ever again after all of the Romaine lettuce recalls. I grow my own greens in the living room closet next to the green beans and snap peas.
My greatest concern right now shopping is getting shot. My biggest concern going outside is drivers texting behind the wheel.
As for exposure? Too late. The first American case landed at Sea-Tac and my landlady's mother-in-law works there so I might have already been exposed. Meanwhile, the Washington guy never got sick enough to see a doctor, he called simply because he felt a little ill when he landed, saw the news report, and called his doctor to be on the safe side.
Meanwhile, Chairman Kim may decide he wants to eliminate my city. No matter what I do, I will die. Even the Messiah died. I have better things to do than freak out over SARS, Ebola, Zika, etc.
7
@Larry Chan
Those are all very good advice.
The laughable thing is that what prompts you to suggest it is a Coronavirus that at this time has all indications of being less transmittable and less deadly than the current flu (so far caused 120,000 hospitalizations and 6,600 death).
3
@Larry Chan the virus can probably only survive less than an hour on a soft, porous surface like a grape. The risk of infection from this is minimal. Maybe on a nonporous, hard surface it might survive a day. The risk is being in close contact with the sick, not through handling produce and packages.
4
Are they using the SIR disease model or the SIS disease model? How much historical data do we have on the origin of common cold viruses? I suspect all common colds start with higher fatality rates and then mutate to keep their hosts alive longer in order to spread farther. Why was the 1918 flu the exception in becoming more lethal?
Assume there are two strains that are nearly identical but one outcompetes the other by keeping more hosts alive with mild symptoms not requiring an ER and quarantine. The better virus would burn through the population faster than the lethal strain that is killing its host and being quarantined. One strain is more fit to spread. I would assume the hosts temporary immunity from the better more fit virus drops the susceptible population left for the lethal strain to infect to zero.
Do they know if it is the exact same virus in people who are hospitalized that is infecting people who are not hospitalized? If a more fit and less lethal virus is found then it might be better to lift the quarantine before the less lethal strain burns out. The first and more lethal strain always escapes before there is a total quarantine.
1
@PictureBook. Agree on the current diagnostic uncertainty. I hope the CDC can bring local health authorities such as the States departments of Health up to speed so the validated assay (believe it's RT-PCR) can be be used to screen a lot of potential patients much faster.
2
As far as I’ve read, the 1918 flu outbreak became more deadly as time went on due to natural selection. Most diseases select for less dangerous symptoms because when exhibiting less symptoms people are more likely to go into public and pass on the virus, and those with worse effects will stay home and not spread the disease as much. In 1918 however with worse effects, people seriously ill would be put into large hospitals (as it was WW1) and those who didn’t have bad symptoms they would not pass on a their virus as much.
Not an expert but that’s what I know.
3
@PictureBook
Unless something has changed, the virus is confirmed using rna analysis. Since the disease is zoonotic those sort of changes may have occurred around the time it began to infect humans.
The modern "age of deadly pathogens" began in earnest several decades ago and this particular epidemic is yet to be fully characterized. There is zero irony even though dangerous conditions are explained weekly or daily in the news regarding antibiotic microbial resistance or that 30% of all hospital deaths are secondary to sepsis (classically as a result of a bloodborne infection). The public forgets that China slaughtered 1/2 of their pigs due to a virus screaming through the farms. This particular virus, Coronavirus, is likewise of zoonotic origin and cross species contagious. The world needs to stop building mechanism of war and spend that munitions money on infectious disease or expect a pandemic of epic proportions heretofore unthinkable in numbers of untimely deaths.
17
current reporting of numbers out of China of number of cases and mortality are fiction.
China might be testing 1 in 10 or 1 in a 100 of those presenting with symptoms because they've run out of the test kits and can't manufacture a number anywhere close to what is required.
29
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Every data piece out of Chinese officials is fiction, and has been proven so in the past as well.
There is a special incentive to lie in this case, as stock markets tank on uncertainty and Chinese oligarchs risk losing massive amounts of money.
19
@Mary Elizabeth Lease - They just have headaches.
1
@tom harrison
or so snake oil salesman Trump would have us believe.
If this virus multiplies in the U.S., I blame Trump for not imposing a travel ban to/from China.
30
@Father of One
And if he did you'd probably say he was a "racist". Honestly I think Trump should be left out of at least ONE conversation.
4
@Father of One - A travel ban is only good if you also stop all of the Chinese container ships that pour into the Puget Sound (and your city) which do not run on autopilot. Just stopping airplanes is not keeping the virus out of the country.
3
@Father of One No country has banned flights from China yet. China is big - banning flights from all of China is like banning flights from Poland after a breakout in the UK. Countries should have banned flights from Wuhan instead of just screening those flights, but anyway that's a moot point as the airport in Wuhan is shut down.
If Trump tried to ban flights from China half a dozen states would file lawsuits and there would be injunctions against the order being enforced anyway, any by the time the case gets resolved in the Supreme Court in 8 months this epidemic will be over.
2
Gee....Too bad for us that if or when this virus takes off in the USA, Trump will start braying about how the CDC is "Deep State", full of "losers" who he didn't have much faith in from the beginning....
FOX is busy preparing the "blame notes" so Trump can then blat out that all the CDC people are at fault....
Here's what I think" Trump invited all them Chinese furriners into the US to sign his magical "Trade agreement", thus allowing the virus to come in ( it WAS about two weeks ago wasn't it?).
How's them soybean purchases going? BEtween the swine illness and now the people illness, I guess we better open our wallets to give another Billion Dollar helping hand to Our Patriot Farmers......poor babies.....
Hey!!! ANyone think this might be the time for Trumpy to implement the "most beautiful healthcare" we will ever see?!?!?!
Just think. The virus comes to the USA, and the infected don't get treatment because they can't afford to go to the doctor.
13
@Ignatz given Trump's shaky health and age, he is seriously at risk, while most of the US is not likely to become critically ill.
Then there is the problem of low wage workers being forced to go to work sick because they "just have a cold" and can't afford or would be fired for missing a shift.
2
@Ignatz given Trump's shaky health and age, he is seriously at risk, while most of the US is not likely to become critically ill.
1
The approach to news coverage of the current health crisis in China and the implications for the human population is as troubling as is the SARS virus responsible for the crisis.
It IS another SARS virus outbreak responsible for the crisis.
"The new virus’s proteins are between 70 and 99 percent IDENTICAL to their counterparts in the SARS virus, says Karla Satchell, a microbiologist and immunologist at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago."
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers
"...between 70 and 99 percent IDENTICAL [DNA]..." renders a guilty verdict 99 percent of the time in a court of law.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and defecates like a duck—IT IS A DUCK, or in this case a SARS outbreak.
The reported number of cases is underestimating the true numbers by many many magnitudes.
China isn't testing tens of thousands of patients presenting with symptoms because they've run out of the test kits and can't manufacture them in anything close to the required numbers.
10
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
If between 70 and 99% identical DNA would render a guilty verdict in the court of law - then our local zoo Chimpanzee should be in jail for every murder committed in this city (99% identical DNA to humans). The Gorilla (98% DNA identical) should be a close second suspect.
Although the SARS virus is in the same family as this they are substantially different both protein sequence and fatality rates (SARS was much more deadly).
7
@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Humans share 96% of DNA with Chimpanzees. So I guess chimps are legally human?
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/8/chimps-humans-96-percent-the-same-gene-study-finds/
4
@Ivan
your conjecture is not supported by the facts this betacoronaviruses could have a mortality rate equal to that of MERS and SARS just as easily as not.
"Although the SARS virus is in the same family as this they are substantially different both protein sequence and fatality rates..."
from ScienceNews Jan 24
"Usually coronavirus illnesses are fairly mild, affecting just the upper airway. But the new virus, as well as both SARS and MERS, are different.
"Those three types of betacoronaviruses can latch onto proteins studding the outside of lung cells, and penetrate much deeper into the airway than cold-causing coronaviruses, says Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, M.D. The 2019 version is “a disease that causes more lung disease than sniffles,” Fauci says.
"Damage to the lungs can make the viruses deadly. In 2003 and 2004, SARS killed nearly 10 percent of the 8,096 people in 29 countries who fell ill. A total of 774 people died, according to the World Health Organization.
"MERS is even more deadly, claiming about 30 percent of people it infects. Unlike SARS, outbreaks of that virus are still simmering, Fauci says. Since 2012, MERS has caused 2,494 confirmed cases in 27 countries and killed 858 people."
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers
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Strange to hear people question China's decision to quarantine infection hotspots, especially after the country was criticized for lax action after the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't, I guess.
It would be nice to see the same critical-minded media entities and armchair second-guessers being as vociferous about helping the country with any temporary shortfalls in medical supplies and other logistical needs.
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@Alex
With a fast mutating coronavirus slowing the spread makes it easier for it to evolve become less lethal and better adapted to its new host population. If people are infected but can still work like with the common cold, then it will overtake the lethal version and burn itself out.
I want to know if the 1918 flu was more lethal because 5% of the hosts died in trenches and it always had fresh recruits to infect. Why become less lethal if your host dies from a bullet, gas or bomb?
Then when the war ended that massive population moved back home and through shear numbers outcompeted less lethal versions. Shutting down schools, hand washing, and face masks means a less lethal version that is better adapted to people is more likely to spread than a virus that keeps someone in bed. A total quarantine makes more sense on a small scale with known carriers put into that population. That makes it harder for the more lethal virus to spread. I only hope that the New York Times does a postmortem (pardon the pun) when this burns itself out. I want to see the after credits scene. Does this become common cold virus 201 or will it wipe out humanity?
China is the master of facade. All the photos are essentially presentations of what the Communist Party wants us to see, as likely are the numbers. In the photos the health care workers are in nice protective suits but the reality outside of those photos and in the the countryside is probably very grim.
I remember when China hosted the Olympics in 2008 and the torch came through San Francisco. There were so many protesters in the city to express their views against China's many outrageous policies from human rights violations to Tibet to name a few. The route of the Olympic torch was supposed to be along the Embarcadero and families from around the Bay Area had gathered to watch the historic event.
Unfortunately Gavin Newsom, mayor at the time, made a backroom closed door deal with the Chinese so that the route was changed at the last minute and kept secret. This all so that China good avoid the embarrassment of visual photos and videos of protesters like those from London and elsewhere. The route ended up going down Van Ness Avenue instead, and China got its pretty pictures and videos of the torch in SF sans protesters. I was down at the Embarcadero and watched as disappointed children and their parents returned to their cars and hours-long drives home in traffic having been disappointed by the collusion between Newsom and the Chinese.
It's all about pretty pictures and presentation to China. So I'm sure if what we're seeing is bad, the reality is so much worse.
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By the time this is over, and hopefully it will be over, there will be over 1 million cases in China of the coronavirus, and over 10,000 deaths. I hope I am wrong. But with a 60% jump in cases virtually overnight, and China's huge population especially in the cities with people in such close promximity of one another, and the time it takes for the disease to incubate, today's numbers are just the tip of the iceberg.
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@Gaston Corteau - Our current flu season has 13 million cases and 6,600 deaths already...if we can believe the CDC:) Both our flu and the Chinese virus are killing older people with preexisting medical conditions. The case here in Washington is a guy in his 30's who never got sick enough to call a doctor. The reason he did was because he saw a news report about the virus and since he didn't feel well when he landed, he called the doctor to be on the safe side. They put him in a small, regional hospital for quarantine but are not treating him. Does this sound like a Bubonic Plague to you? Or more akin to a very bad flu season in United States?
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@Gaston Corteau
it is the SARS virus.
"The new virus’s proteins are between 70 and 99 percent identical to their counterparts in the SARS virus, says Karla Satchell, a microbiologist and immunologist at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago."
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers
Anyone who has experienced the street "wet markets" in, say, Hong Kong could see that it was just a matter of time before something bad broke loose. For all China's swagger it's still a fairly primitive place in terms of valuing public health and life quality.
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I feel like this NYT is pushing hysteria and could really do a much better job of putting this in context for all of us.
Is this virus really "Mysterious"? We know quite a bit about this virus and have seen versions of it in recent history (MERS, SARS etc.)
100 deaths worldwide with the overwhelming majority in China. How does this compare to annual flu deaths in China?
Number of deaths in relationship to the number infected. That means the mortality rate is not very high right now. Right?
I'm just not quite sure I can buy into this hysteria quite yet. I do understand the mistrust of the Chinese government. That is well founded.
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@Kelly Several differentiating factors are the cause for such a large reaction. The alarming increase in the number of infections and the rate of that increase, the lethality of the virus, and the novelty of certain elements of the virus.
Within only a few weeks and relatively few number of confirmed infected patients over 100 people have died.
Take the 5k number which is probably much lower then the actual number of cases. Even assuming no delay, 1 in 50 will die within a few weeks of being exposed to the virus, and the real number is probably higher.
If history has taught us anything it is not to underestimate the importance and impact of public health crisis's.
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@2-6 I agree every reasonable precaution should be taken but let's remember: 35,000 people, in the US alone, died from the flu last year. The current mortality rate of this virus is about 2%. It would have to infect almost 2 million people in the US to have the same impact as the flu last year.
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@Kelly That's if we can trust the numbers disclosed by the communist government. When PRC officials admit to a thousand cases one can assume the real numbers are in 10 thousand. From Mondays' under 2000 cases to Tuesdays over 4000? Either the virus is really bad and spreading fast, or previous numbers are not real!
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The mall shoppers have masks but many have their hands on the escalator rail. I would tend to defer the mask and prefer avoiding touching anything with my bare hands. And if everyone else is wearing masks the likelihood of someone sneezing in my face is nearly nill. Cold viruses can survive on indoor surfaces up to 7 days.
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@M.B. I've been noticing that. Gloves are a good way to keep some germs away.
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@M.B. - Then I would advise you don't hit the overnight delivery option if shopping Amazon:))
When a warship is holed below the waterline - by attack or by striking a rock or reef - to limit flooding, the crew at once close water-tight doors. That enables the ship to make port, where repairs can be done.
To contain human-spread - contact and/or sneeze-transmissible - diseases, quarantines should be imposed promptly.
Cutting-off all flights from China is disruptive. But this is the best way to contain this new virus.
Further, anyone with a passport stamp showing they've been in China since, say, 1 December 2019, should be quarantined, unless they have been out of China for at least a fortnight. This should ensure that only those, who have recently left China - and may be carrying the virus - are quarantined.
When ebola erupted in West Africa in 2014, there was no shut-down of flights from Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. That was error. Most residents can't afford any airline ticket: only the wealthy - a tiny minority - would have been affected. Road travel in the region is only for the brave.
An air traveler from Monrovia (Liberia) arrived in Lagos (Nigeria) and collapsed in the airport. He was at once hospitalized. He soon died. By quickly finding those, who had had contact with him, the Nigerians kept ebola from spreading.
Quarantines are disruptive and so costly. But there's no better way to contain sneeze-transmissible, human-spread diseases.
Equally, diseases spread by birds or winged insects can't be contained, so quarantines of humans are futile.
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@Jay E. Simkin - You would need to stop all shipping into the U.S. from China since live crew members man all of those container ships coming into our ports. All I have to do is ride my bike to a nearby hill and I can watch them come in all day long.
This is what happens when you allow another country to make everything that you buy in your stores. You leave yourselves vulnerable.
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@Jay E. Simkin Oh good - another non doctor, non scientist, non public health expert is telling us that they have this amazing idea that something that has NEVER worked for respiratory outbreaks is magically going to work this time.
Sorry, but there is an enormous amount of literature on why quarantines are damaging and ineffective. Even in the NYT. I suggest you read up before making such comments again.
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We get it. Coronavirus is spreading fast and furious. What is the comprehensive multipronged approach to stop the trans continental spread and spread within an infected person.
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Reading about the developments, just some observations. The DJIA is up 250 points, so many have followed the recommendation to buy the dip. But China is still enduring seismic damage to its economic infrastructure. Hong Kong is virtually attempting a "stealth secession". And people from Beijing to Shanghai to Guangzhou are practicing "self-quarantine". This will continue after the Lunar Holiday. How exactly is a nation under these conditions to function? (Not to mention the heavy outlay of financial resources to counter the epidemic.) Most likely this is just the beginning of China's economic and political difficulties. If correct, the shock to the global economy is just beginning.
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@R It will have no impact on the global economy unless the tell toll starts to reach a few million.
China has a lot of people and only 106 of them are dead. There is no shortage of living people to fill the jobs the dead 106 were doing.
A respectable news source should limit themselves to speculating with stock market articles until the bull or bear has persisted at least a month. The number of articles the NYTimes has run that incorrectly predict a stock market boom or bust is at least equal to the number of days the stock market has either risen or fallen.
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@KDigg Right. After the Chinese holiday (with extension) ends next week, everyone is going to rush back to work. No disruption. People will be working in close quarters. Streets will be full of traffic. Commerce will carry forward unimpeded. Just a memory.
@KDigg - Since the 106 patients that have passed were mostly elderly, previously sick people I doubt they had jobs to begin with.
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I don’t get it. People are still flying into the US from China. We’re expanding our “checking “ to 20 from 4 airports. Since there’s no quick test for the virus, all we’re able to screen for is obvious signs of illness such as fever or a cough. As supposedly the virus is contagious before people show symptoms, how is this going to protect our country?
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@Greenie - I do not believe anything will protect our country if by that you mean measures that prevent the spread of this new virus in the U.S. The goal is to buy time and minimize the number of people infected until a vaccine is available. The decisions about which airports to monitor is not a random decision but is based on the best epidemiological experts available in the U.S. I would defer to the experts. Just keep politics out of it.
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@Greenie
Banning entry or screening people at entry points is not effective for anything other than trying to calm the nerves of an ignorant public.
The pathetic and sad part is that this is being done for a virus that is less deadly and much less contagious than the annual flu pandemic.
An ignorant press is feeding the fears of an ignorant public in order to sell clicks and eyeballs - and make money.
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@Ivan Really? Will you go to Wuhan now if it's less potent than a common cold?
Letting a new virus spread to infect more people could potentially help the virus to mutate faster and become a superbug.
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Today's Opinion section : We Made the Coronavirus Epidemic by David Quammen
Brilliant scientific, insightful summary explains the root of the viruses and what's ahead.
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@ga Read his book, Spillover. Fascinating stuff.
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@Anne
I want to also plug Quammen's 2018 book, The Tangled Tree. It was longlisted for a National Book Award in 2018 and was a NYT notable book. I suspect there is a lot in Spillover that covers some of the material in Tangled Tree.
When China puts the same effort into closing the cruel live animal markets and exotic/endangered species trade that they put into building sweatshops and grandiose public projects, I’ll stop resenting them for putting all of us in danger just a few years after the SARS wake-up call.
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This is very, very worrying, because we don’t know a lot about the virus. We don’t know for sure how many people have actually died, it could have been covered up by the Chinese government. And I don’t know what my country will do if the virus reaches us. I doubt it’ll deal with it well. I hope that all these countries can try and work together.
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@Blàthnaid Lastname
Unusual name that is.
For sure, China is run by one man, with a complicit party.
Why, it reminds me of america.
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With Washington seemingly in shambles, and with the recent history of our government’s apparent disregard for residents of our states and provinces dealing with life-threatening emergencies, how can we trust that in the face of this coronavirus pandemic, that our government is making its country’s health a priority?
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This is the second major viral outbreak in China in the past one year.
Totally overlooked is the fact that nearly a quarter-BILLION pigs -- representing one-quarter of the entire global population -- were recently slaughtered due to an out-of-control African Swine Flu pandemic.
As a direct consequence, the country has been facing serious meat supply-chain shortages, along with price spikes of available pork supplies.
That is what led to recent increases in consumption of alternate meat sources - possibly sourced from a new population or species due to market demand.
Either way, the underlying causal mechanism was a catastrophic animal disease outbreak leading to a secondary human disease outbreak.
And increased risk of outbreaks caused by livestock and crop pathogens is precisely what scientists predicted will occur when ecosystems are disrupted due to environmental damage or... yes, once again... climate change.
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“It was to be expected that the virus would come to Germany,” Jens Spahn, Germany’s health minister, said in a statement on Tuesday. “But the Bavarian case shows us that we are well prepared.”
Honestly, this Bavarian case does not say anything about how well Germany is prepared for a likely epidemic. Let me guess, the next statement out of this minister could sound like this"It was expected that 100 K of germans would contract the virus. But of course we are well prepared..."
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It was the single biggest audience for an inauguration. Period. When you lie about inane stuff like that, do you think anyone will believe you about anything else?
The Chinese government may have a credibility gap, but at least it’s not a chasm.
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@T. Rivers - Mercy, you must have a headache or something. :)
This corona virus has killed “over 100” thus far, and its famous cousin the SARS virus infected 8,098 people, killing 774. Meanwhile, according to the CDC, in the US thus far this season at least 120,000 hospital admissions and 6,600 deaths are linked to the seasonal common flu. And of course the so-called Spanish Flu of 1918-19 is believed to have infected half a billion people, killing somewhere between 50-100 million.
Apparently nuance and context doesn’t sell newspapers.
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@JFB
Yes the death rate for the flu this season is about 5.5% of hospital admissions. This Coronavirus from Wuhan has less than 3% death rate - yet panicked fools suggest we should close the border. Exit from Wuhan was closed down and all that did was make people desperate and help fuel the current global panic attack.
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@JFB Initial 13 victims didn’t go to the market they received virus from the lab in Wuhan
1. On March 31 live Ebola and Henipah viruses shipped to China. Probably their largest lab located in Wuhan.
(Radio Free Asia last week rebroadcast a Wuhan television report from 2015 showing China’s most advanced virus research laboratory, known the Wuhan Institute of Virology.)
3.Based on the way the virus looks probably mutated strain of Henipah virus but weaponized
4. Based on the way the virus spreads for every known victim there are about 4 unknown ones.
5. If we run a simulation of this virus it will have about 65 million victims.
6. US borders need to immediately close or we’ll have a pandemic larger than any thermonuclear explosion that is according to professor from John Hopkins University.
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This respiratory virus seems to be spread mainly by airborne droplets and contaminated hard surfaces so there should be signs and pictures/diagrams in public places and trains, planes and buses urging people to cover their cough or sneeze with their inner elbow or a tissue, and to use hand sanitizer or wash their hands before touching their eyes, nose or mouth. Also announcements could be made in public places, trains, buses and planes to ask people to cover a cough or sneeze with their inner elbow or a tissue. Hand sanitizers and tissues and maybe cough drops could be made available as well. One person with an unprotected sneeze or repeated cough could contaminate a plane, train car, bus or office and if they sneeze into their hands and then touch a tray table, handrail, supermarket or bank touch screen then those surfaces could be contaminated as well, then the next person who touches the screen or handrail and then their eyes, nose or mouth could be infected as well. Media reports about this virus or the flu should be making all of these public health points as well.
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@John Smith Masks should be required to be worn outdoors by all those who visited China in the past month. Not sure about the legality of it, but certainly it's less likely to be challenged than trying to detain and quarantine them.
Wearing masks is just good hygiene during flu season, as it mostly prevents infected people from infecting others (it also helps, though not 100% effective, at protecting the wearer).
It's not just China that has short-sighted politicians when it comes to public health.
"Trump released his fiscal year 2020 federal budget proposal in March, recommending huge cuts across the federal government, including a 12 percent cut to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and a 10 percent cut for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
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The problems with a new illness are threefold:
1) The illness itself.
2) The economic impact of imposing quarantines to control the illness until it is understood.
3) The unknown ripple effects from both of the above.
Because we live in a global society with global markets, a new illness could be devastating not because it kills a lot of people, but because it causes major economic upheaval, which (as people blame each other) could then lead to major political upheaval.
Nations need to do a better job of planning for new disease response that includes managing all three problems.
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@Heather
All the more reason to not have a global economy. Globalization and diversity are at the heart of these pandemics. Time to raise the drawbridge and flood the moats.
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@Nancy Robertson - Depending upon another country to manufacture everything we buy is much like asking another country to defend us with their military while we have none.
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@Heather, Wuhan is a mega city with population density unimaginable to most Americans. It is highly ironical just last week pundits and reporters were lamenting the declining fertility rate in China. They never could have imagined the complexity of dealing with contagious disease on the scale and density of the population in China.
What is wrong the the WHO? Between their slow response to the coronavirus and their reluctance to reject traditional medicine pseudoscience, it seems that there is a need for an investigation of the political influence that certain governments have developed over this once storied institution.
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@Sloan Kulper
There may be things wrong with WHO (no organization of humans is perfect). But their insistence on using traditional medical science approaches rather than unproven woo-doo alternative medicine is one of the things that are RIGHT.
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@Sloan Kulper
Traditional Chinese medicine practitioner Tu Youyou discovers artemisinin which used to treat malaria, saving millions of life in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and South America. Miss Tu is awarded with the Noble Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 2015 and Lasker Award in 2016.
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@Sloan Kulper Do you know why? Because as far as we can tell right now, only Chinese nationals are getting killed. No Caucasian.
I'd like to read much more about the nature of these coronaviruses. For instance, after nearly 20 years since SARS was an issue, hasn't China tried to develop a vaccine? And, since the major reason people die from the current virus is because they develop a pneumonia, wouldn't the pneumonia vaccine help at all? Or, for that matter, isn't there any medicine at all or other treatment that people could take on their own at home? The fact that everyone has to stay in the hospital is what's causing such a problem. It would be the same over here or anywhere else.
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@Ron A
SARS was a different virus and vaccines are specific for specific viruses. So your Flu vaccine works for this years Flu strain but you need a new one for next years - even though it is the same type of virus. The pneumonia vaccine is for pneumonia caused by bacterial infections it doesn't work for the pneumonia caused by any virus. But I can assure you that there will be a vaccine specific for this Corona virus most likely within 3-6 months. In the mean time take all necessary hygiene precautions.
It is probably best for very sick people to stay and be treated in the hospitals. After all those places can institute strict isolation procedures to minimize transmission. The problem is the doctors office (which in China is in the hospitals). Everybody with a cold runs in there so you have huge lines of mostly not ill people mixing with a few that have the Corona virus. As I have always said, if you want to pick up an infectious disease, go to your doctors office, it's full of sick people.
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@Ron A
Take a look at Remdesivir (GS-5734). Here is a link relevant to your question:
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-mulls-repositioning-failed-ebola-drug-china-virus
@Ivan
Thanks for your response. You're right about the pneumonia vaccine only covering bacterial infection but I think you're wrong about a vaccine coming for the current epidemic. It's been 17 years since SARS, which has been officially described as 'similar' to 2019-nCoV, the current virus, and yet there is no vaccine for it. My comments above were really directed at the NYT's lack of investigative reporting on this illness.
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The Chinese made SARS, and they made this new coronavirus. Why isn’t the WHO cracking down on China? How can we allow one country to jeopardize the health of the entire world?
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WSJ, NYT, and Washington Post all have articles on the coronavirus coming from a live animal market in China.
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@Mike
WHO doesn't have the power to "crack down" on anybody. All they can do is help.
It is true that close contact with wild (and domestic) animals can cause outbreak of new strains of infections. Given the traditions for such contact and the huge population of China, it is not surprising that they have been the center of a fair number of new epidemics. Hopefully this episode will convince Chinese authorities to do something to change the culture
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@Mike Making something and a virus evolving are two different things. I'd say it's was more of a coincidence that the corona virus evolved there.It could've happened anywhere most likely.
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Just when we need a real president we are saddled with this conflicted, mean spirited, ignorant man who could care less about anything except his own political survival.
I can imagine his response to any plea for assistance from China: "Sure we can send supplies, but I need to ask you for a favor first..."
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@interested party. No, Trump will ask for China to announce an investigation into Joe Biden's role in creating that outbreak. Or, ask them to announce that they're looking into Michael Bloomberg's role in this, too. And, maybe add Bernie Sanders to the list of suspects, while they're at it.
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@interested party It is disheartening to see that some 120 found value in your comment. There is not an iota of evidence that suggests Mr. Trump's views of this situation - if any - are relevant.
If you want to criticize leaders' incompetence, focus on China's leaders, who once again have been blind-sided thanks to their own subordinates' fear of the consequences if they speak truth to power.
African Swine Fever (ASF) - no danger to humans, so far - spread to half of China's provinces in 2019 before Beijing's moguls decided to take it seriously. As China is the largest producer of pigs and consumer of pork, should not China's leaders have grasped that so lethal a disease commanded their attention?
ASF had spread into Eurasia from Africa in 2007 - see http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/230205/EW_ASF_Georgia_Jun07.pdf - so there was plenty of time for China to have prepared.
But Beijing's top leaders did nothing.
In short, Mr. Trump does much that many find objectionable. But he has had no hand in the development or spread of corona virus infections.
Mr. Trump might do cut-off flights to/from China and require quarantine of all, who - having left China within the past two weeks - want to enter the U.S.
China, a police state, surely stamps all visitors' passports on entry and exit.
If you want to criticize any country's leadership, I suggest you focus on China, whose leaders - perhaps more quiet-spoken than is Mr. Trump - are grossly negligent.
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@Jay E. Simkin I think they were just joking . They would probably agree with you and put the blame on Chinese authorities too.
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Saying that "known cases jumped nearly 60 percent overnight" is misleading and poor journalism. It didn't get there overnight. These cases were in the incubation period. There's a lot of unknown's. We should be expecting to see waves of new cases coming as this virus seems to spread from person to person. Viruses that spread person to person have a epi curve that has successively large peaks. This is due to one person spreading it to x amount then those spreading it to even more ppl etc. I'd expect a propagated epi curve just based on the information.
There's also been reports on R0 which roughly translates to the amount of secondary cases that will happen from one infected person. People are panicking due to high reports, that have since been revised as more information comes out. However, this number isn't static. It may be possible to decrease this number which public health interventions.
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@al It's not poor journalism. It is a lapse in reporting and testing ability. It's like if your speedometer did not work and it jumped from 0-60 in one second. The data has either not been reported adequately or the testing has not been performed routinely due to poor resources (testing kits, etc) or more likely: both. Also, politics.
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@Kevin I get your point but it doesn't really apply to the situation. You can't measure whats not there. While people are incubating you are going to get reports of no cases. This is why the epi curve will spike in intervals and isn't continuously growing. This isn't due to reporting or gaps in surveillance; although, those are real issues that are happening. It's just how person to person outbreaks function.
I understand that people are unfamiliar with some aspects of epidemiology but that's why it's so crucial that the media gets it right.
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@al the operative word here is "known" -- also meaning, in this case "counted". So it is accurate to say that the number of known cases jumped overnight, even though the real number of infections is unknown and probably rising. While they cannot report on what is not know, the growth of the number of cases that ARE known give us some sense of the rate of new infections at this point in time.
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So the mortality rate is less than 3% of those who get sick enough to be diagnosed are ending up dead. That is not bad at all. We have had influenza epidemics worse than that. And this virus appears much less transmittable than the flu. It seems that family members (who have shared living spaces, kisses etc.) are not sure to be infected.
One question not yet answered is how many of those who are exposed end up getting sick enough to be diagnosed - and how many just get minor symptoms that disappear before they are diagnosed.
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@Ivan Saying that 3% is not bad is wrong way to look at this. Look at historic cases for a better understanding, also what all will change about people's behavior and customs all across China? What was done with all the animals in the "wet markets"? Have you see a single report or video of the animals being killed humanely and buried? Were they collected for testing? What if the virus mutates? The media keeps quoting "11 million" people in Wuhan, but how many got out to other cities and provinces before the shutdown? /P Are Chinese people going to stop spitting and clearing their noses on common areas? Are they going to stop eating endangered and rare animals? Are criminal gangs going to stop spreading African swine flu onto livestock purposely to drop stock and raise prices? Will people concede that TCM is a liability? How many asymptomatic carriers got out of China to end up in Europe and North America? Are Westerns going to follow stricter food/safety protocols at home, at work, and in public? /P Do you see how many variables are at play here? And don't discount the virus coming back for Round 2 after it subsides on this go.
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@Robert
We really don't have effective treatments for most viruses (including the flu). For viruses the game is prevention. Some medicines may help some people a little bit - if taken before you get seriously sick.
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@Ivan Personally, I will feel more confidence in the data when the unfortunate but likely outcome occurs: when it leaves China. Until I know the number of deaths vs actual infected in places *other* than China, I will continue to feel a little apprehension. The truth is, the reaction of the Chinese government (building a hospital in 2 weeks, closing off 50M people etc) worries me. They act like they know something we don't.
I hate the obvious in my statement: that I need to have it leave China and kill others but only then will the data be reliable. Let's hope that I am wrong, it stays put, and no one else dies....unlikely as that may be.
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