Should You Be Worried About the Coronavirus?

Jan 28, 2020 · 37 comments
Stop Eating Wildlife (NYC)
SARS outbreak originated in China because Chinese people were eating Civet cats. Chinese people will eat anything that moves with zero regard for worldwide consequences , so even after SARS they kept eating wildlife (Bats, snakes, camels). I normally don't care what people eat, but these disgusting cuisine choices are wreaking havoc worldwide. They are repeat offenders.
cynicalskeptic (Greater NY)
More and more evidence is indicating a link to the Wuhan Institute of Virology - a level 4 biohazard containment lab that has been doing research n corona viruses and bats. In November the Institute was seeking to hire one or two post-doc fellows, who will use "bats to research the molecular mechanism that allows Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses to lie dormant for a long time without causing diseases." The person heading this research is Dr. Peng Zhou. Searching for him will reveal far more information. It is far more likely that this virus escaped from the level 4 lab in Wuhan than a natural cross over occurred in a live animal market. The long dormant period would be very useful in an engineered bioweapon. If this outbreak is related to a bioengineered virus, things are likely to get far worse. While the media may not be reporting this possibility for fear of causing panic it seems that panic is already occurring in China.
Padman (Boston)
Unfortunately, we do not have a vaccine at this time that worries me but things are changing. Historically, vaccines have been one of the greatest public health tools to prevent disease. It took researchers about 20 months to develop a vaccine against SARS in 2003 and six months when the Zika epidemic struck in 2015. Scientists want to halve that time with the coronavirus. I am happy to note that Scientists in Australia and at least three companies — Johnson & Johnson, Moderna Therapeutics and Inovio Pharmaceuticals — are also working on vaccine candidates to stop the spread of the disease, which has infected about 6,000 people and killed more than 130. But pharmaceutical companies will not move fast enough unless there is a financial incentive However, I am optimistic that the CDC, Atlanta will come up with a vaccine very soon. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the N.I.H., is saying that the vaccine research is moving quickly. He said: “If we don’t run into any unforeseen obstacles, we’ll be able to get a Phase 1 trial going within the next three months, which will be record speed,”
EnergyDan (Houston)
Of course it is inevitable that a city like New York, with a huge Chinese population going back and forth to mainland China is going to get the coronavirus. New York, coastal California and Vancouver have such large populations of Chinese, it will be amazing if there aren't some infected people coming back unknowingly or knowingly. No doubt many fled China as the news spread. The mayor of Wuhan said 5 million fled the city before the lock-downl
ett (Us)
Death rate from the flue: 1 in 10,000. Current best estimate of the death rate from the coronavirus: 2 in 100. The coronavirus is 200 times more fatal! If as many people got the coronavirus as the flue in the US, 7,000,000 mil Americans would die. When Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, says “When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s just no comparison," he is right, but in the wrong direction! Ms. Sabo is right when she writes. “For them, the flu is old news. Yet viruses named after foreign places — such as Ebola, Zika and Wuhan — inspire terror.” Yes, it's all xenophobia. Precautions like that suggested by Coulter of banning travel from China--racism.
Martha (USA)
People should not worry because there's nothing we can do in the event of a pandemic, we don't have the means or will to impose a working quarantine and never had. The best we can do is pray it is not very lethal and let it die out.
Dave (Albuquerque, NM)
Funny the neighboring article says "Scientists rush to develop vaccine". Sure, its no biggie, you should be worried about the flu - but hey we are RUSHING to make a vaccine.
Meadow (NY)
Some misinformation here. It's being transmitted without sneezing and coughing and those aren't primary symptoms if I read correctly.
ALF (Philadelphia)
Flu seems to have a death rate of 1/2 of 1%. The corona virus seems to be about 3%. While RIGHT NOW fewer cases, it is more deadly, although not as bad as SARS. If it ever takes off in the US or elsewhere there will be more deaths than we see from the flu.
Warrantone (California)
So this opinion is a day old. More have died and more cases have appeared. We still don't know how to stop it and there is not surety that we ever will. I understand the need for calm but the best way to do that is for officials to show they are taking meaningful measures. In this case, they are not. "It's racist", "it's an overreaction", "there is not cause for alarm", "the flu kills more". None of those comments are worth a dime in prevention. First it was not airborne, now it is. First it was not transmissible by people without symptoms, now it is. If you want the public trust, you have to earn it. A travel ban is unnecessary, until it's not. China has so far locked down 15 cities. Surely they wish they had been able to act sooner. Will the USA say the same, when it is too late?
Ana (Boston)
Just like any other imperative virus, after an outbreak panic follows. This time it is the coronavirus, originated in Wuhan, China. Along with the sickness itself there are other connotations that the article highlights. It is very interesting to see how misinformed, at least in my case, individuals are as it is an "old" disease. You could also say that this is a “mutation “or the virus holds new and improved genetics. However, it is also important to note that while it affects physical health it also affects emotional health. The article also highlights the racist effects. For example, it targets people from Asia or Asian descent where instead of help being provided, fingers are being pointed. The sickness indeed was generated due to an exotic diet by eating bats. Still, once the virus spreads, it takes innocent and for the most part, victims who did not indulge in such exotic pleasures. As individuals in a global society, we must help one another because we are more connected now than ever. Rather than blaming the epidemic and immediately panicking, we must get more informed. Just as the article highlights, other commonly known diseases such as influenza and the flu are even more threatening, but the difference is that we are accustomed to it. Today the outbreak is taking place in China, however tomorrow it could be anywhere else in the world. Further research, control, and consideration needs to take place to battle diseases and prevent them as well.
Truth is out there (PDX, OR)
High fatality rate is lesser an issue if the disease can be stopped from spreading, which is the case for MERS and SARS. In both cases a virus-carrying patient only become infectious after symptoms show up; therefore it's easier to contain the spread. While a typcial seasonal influenza is highly contagious, it has a typical mortality rate of only 0.13%. On average about 500 millions worldwide catch seasonal flu, and about 650,000 died each year. The 1918-1919 Spanish Flu have the unfortunate combination of high fatality rate and highly contagious. About 500 millions were infected and an estimation of 50 millions died from it. This novel Wuhan coronavirus so far has shown fatality rate of 2-3%, a figure that is still changing. There have been reports (but not confirmed) that it 'might be contagious' even before any symptom shows up; which could potentially make it harder to stop the spread. Let's hope this is not the case. Frequent hand washing and wearing mask are the keys to protect individual.
Girish Kotwal (Louisville, KY)
Right now anyone in the US should not be worried too much about the Wuhan Corona Virus (WCV) because the sleeping giants China and USA have been awakened and are doing a lot to contain the spread of the virus. Since the epicenter is Wuhan, China has closed off its exit points out of a large regions and Hong Kong has closed off entry points from China. The US is no longer receiving flights from Wuhan and many departure points from China. So there is a trickle of cases going out of China all over the world in every continent except Antarctica and Africa. Being a virus transmitted by the respiratory route, WCV is as dangerously contagious as pandemic influenza virus strains and more dangerous than HIV and Hepatitis C virus (HCV) which are not transmitted by the respiratory route but by the parenteral route. Panicking will be unproductive. There are a lot of scary unknowns about the WCV that should not give rise to complacency, which is not good either. It is better to be safe than sorry. Everyone should continue with common sense hygienic practices like 1) proper hand washing with detergent containing hand washing soap by leaving the soap applied for a minute before rinsing, 2) In case there is news that the contagion is spreading in the US, wearing masks that will trap aerosols as well as virus particles, and also wearing eye protection. Avoid traveling to places where there have been cases of WCV infected persons, avoid contact with exotic imported animals or wild animals.
Padman (Boston)
Of course, I am worried about this illness since we don't have a vaccine to prevent this illness at this time This is a deadly virus and it has spread quickly to many parts of China besides Wuhan and has spread to the US and thirteen other countries in Asia, Australia, and Europe within a month. As of January 26, the 2019-ncov virus has infected more than 2700 people and has killed more than eighty. This situation is similar to another pandemic the SARS, that is also a Coronavirus In 2002-2003, SARS spread to more than two dozen countries, infecting more than 8000 people and killing 774.
Truth is out there (PDX, OR)
@Padman As of now the total confirmed infection cases wordwide is 6,057. This website tracks the data and locations: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Padman (Boston)
@Truth is out there Thanks for sending me the reference. This virus is spreading very fast globally, I hope the CDC or some other agency will find a vaccine very soon.
Mandy (USA)
It is highly contagious so it will spread like wildfire. Abilities to contain any contagion in any country are negligible, despite what the government or institutions might say. So far it hasn't been very virulent, but it can mutate and become more lethal at any time.
jgury (lake geneva wisconsin)
@Mandy Hasn't been very virulent. Compared to what, Ebola? Which is to say it is in fact very virulent. Also, mutation in these generally drives them to less lethality - as the mutations tend to make them rapidly extinct just like in higher life forms. Which of course does not rule out it becoming more lethal and contagious - so it's complicated as you might expect.
RamS (New York)
I think in ALL situations it is better to react with a cool and level head than to freak out, etc. It is never useful to overreact. But it is easier said than done. Drugs that work against SARS are likely to work against this virus (86% similarity in the polyprotein sequence - checked it ourselves) and we're working on discovering new drugs that already approved that may be useful against this virus. For SARS, we predicted that HIV protease drugs would be useful against the SARS proteinase and this was confirmed by other groups. So we'll try again specifically to this virus and see what we get. Our paper on this was awarded the most cited from 2003-2006 in the journal it was published. If we went at it with 100% effort, we could do it in a few hours but we're working on a lot of things right now and on top of it our platform is only about 20-25% accurate (but the goal is to get it up so that in the future this becomes routine). So we'll give it a shot. Main issue is testing since it requires a BSL4 facility.
Truth is out there (PDX, OR)
@RamS I read this article that a clinical trial is under way in Beijing using ritonavir and lopinavir (brand name Kaletra) to treat cases of the new coronavirus.
Joshua Schwartz (Ramat-Gan, Israel)
"For perspective: The flu kills roughly 35,000 Americans every year. This season, it has already sickened an estimated 15 million Americans and killed 8,200, according to C.D.C. estimates. Influenza kills more Americans every year than any other virus, Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor at Baylor College of Medicine, told Liz Sabo at Kaiser Health News. But the flu is rarely paid such attention, and fewer than half of adults get a vaccine." This would be a good time to remind people to get the vaccine, especially elderly, chronically ill, and anybody with any common sense, after being advised by one's physician. Worried about Coronavirus? Not much. About the flu? You bet. Did I get the vaccine? Of course.
Frank Knarf (Idaho)
@Joshua Schwartz This virus was not present in humans until 2 months ago. Google "exponential".
jgury (lake geneva wisconsin)
“When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s just no comparison,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told Ms. Sabo. “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison.” Uhhh, thanks for that reassuring comparison Doc but I think I'd rather take my chances with regular flu than a new pandemic virus that has no vaccines and is more lethal. The same goes for driving my car and getting in and out of bathtubs.
Milton Lewis (Hamilton Ontario)
Currently in Hobart Tasmania. Scheduled to fly back to Toronto via Shanghai. Trying to make other arrangements to avoid entry into China even if limited to the airport as presently planned.
Dave (Albuquerque, NM)
“Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison.” Maybe. Schaffner is overconfident. Predicting the future is a fool's errand. Sure, its not time to panic but there is also the possibility that it will be the reverse. Phony certainty is not what's needed.
kj (nyc)
@Dave It's not phony certainty; it's using logic and rational thinking in light of past history, science, and experience. Have you had your flu shot yet? How about your neighbor?
Dan Stackhouse (NYC)
Very sensible article, glad to see someone working against the hype. The common flu is definitely far more of a threat than the coronavirus, not just here but even in China. If this new virus had slain tens of thousands by now, it'd be an extremely dangerous threat, but just over a hundred makes it less threatening than the flu, over the same time frame.
Biomuse (Philadelphia)
@Dan Stackhouse No, the common flu absolutely is not "far more of a threat than the coronavirus." For the 2017-18 season, for example, mortality rate from influenza in the US was less than 1% in all age groups. For 2018-19 it is less than 0.1% for all age groups. Statistical breakdown for these and other flu seasons are readily available at https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm The current and very early mortality estimate for this strain of coronavirus is about 3%, and that could be revised up or down. The virus is not currently a major health threat in the US; it is presently uncommon in the US.
kj (nyc)
@Biomuse The coronavirus is currently judged to be less lethal than SARS; SARS killed 800 worldwide. The common flu has already killed over 8000 in the US. We need to keep things in perspective.
jgury (lake geneva wisconsin)
@kj According to the head of China's CDC it's a good news bad news kind of perspective. The good news is it doesn't appear quite as lethal as SARS. The bad news is it's much more contagious with a long asymptomatic transmission period.
Kenneth J. Dillon (Washington, D.C.)
Frequent gargling may prevent the virus from establishing itself in the oral tract, then spreading to the rest of the body. See https://www.scientiapress.com/mouthwash-oral-respiratory-infections . Japanese researchers have published many studies on the value of gargling to ward off respiratory infections. We can be sure that Japanese are doing a lot of gargling right now, and CDC should advise Americans to do likewise.
ACH (Berkeley)
Perspective is important here: The 2009 H1N1A virus that originated in Southern California went off to infect and kill an estimated 280,000 people globally in 12 months.  Compared to that, all the hysteria about this outbreak and the criticisms of the Chinese medical system are rich in hypocrisy. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22738893 Oh, and let's not forget, the 8200-20,000 people killed since October from the Flu in the US this year, and the 1400 people who died last week. Doesn't that merit an article and a media call out? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Sándor (Bedford Falls)
“When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s just no comparison,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told Ms. Sabo. “Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison.” ^ Uh, okay. So, nothing worse than the average flu season during the next few months? All right. Great to hear. I have saved this article to revisit in a month's time.
Anne-Marie Hislop (Chicago)
Personally, I think all the talk of people being panicked is just sad. A look at the number sickened vs the death toll suggests that this is a serious disease, but one from which the vast majority of folks recover. Certainly, in Wuhan where people are experiencing restraints, fear of insufficient medical care, and perhaps of insufficient food etc., people's anxiety is high. For Americans, though, it seems that the usual self-care advice is best - wash hands well & often, get enough sleep, stay healthy generally and if you become ill call your doctor to report symptoms rather than going to the office sick.
Justin (Seattle)
@Anne-Marie Hislop And--I would emphasize--if you're sick, stay home.
Marie (Grand Rapids)
@Justin Visit your doctor then stay home? Most Americans can’t afford that. Starvation always ending in death, self-preservation will make the individual choose his interest over society’s (which, to be honest, is the American ethos). Without paid sick leave and affordable care, most Americans have no choice but to spread contagion.
Adam Fourney (Redmond)
@Anne-Marie Hislop The trouble is that we simply don't know the denominator. On the one hand, it is likely that the infections are underreported, and that would tend to drive the fatality rate down. On the other hand, they aren't reporting how long people were infected before being hospitalized or dying, making it difficult to estimate how many of the currently 6000 infected will survive. In any event, a 3% fatality rate *is* scary -- that's one in every 33 people. Put differently, 33 is about as many students as in my son's grade 2 class, and it would be an absolute tragedy if one in his class, and in every class like his, was not expected to survive this flu season.