Vladimir Putin’s New Orchestra

Russia will only stop being the world's most corrupt kleptocracy when Russians get rid of Putin and his robber barons. His security apparatus won't let him be toppled by popular will, so it will have to be a cabal in the security services; in other words traitors. Such a coup will doubtless be bloody but necessary if Russia ever stands a chance of becoming a civilized nation.

The article's headline is an apt metaphor. The orchestra developed in Europe during monarchies and reflects that social order: conductor (king/queen); concertmaster and section leaders (prominent lords and ladies); other players (nobles); audience (the people/peasants). Vladimir Putin wants to be king without actually calling it that, creating a social structure that has the appearance and trappings of democracy while actually being a monarchy. Which is exactly what President Trump wants as well.

I am so tired of of all this negativity poisoning our minds day in and day out, so I am gonna give Putin the benefit of a doubt. Maybe this is more about his legacy than anything else. ‘The man that saved Russia’ and gave the country its confidence back and slowly, but steady moved towards a more democratic society (currently the President indeed has too much power and the proposed changes will change that fact). Lets not forget it was the US empire who pushed to give major powers to Yeltsin when he was president because they were scared of a parliamentary coup to kick him out , the same Powers the US deemed authoritarian under Putin. These changes will prevent any future president from undoing the work Putin has done , to weaken the presidency so he can still be a major influence from parliament once he leaves the presidency. He is preparing for when he leaves office making sure that Russia does not return to the Yeltsin years when the country was plundered by Western banks , corporations and domestic oligarchs. The Russians are tough people, and they respect hardness, that is their history, but the Americans have utterly double crossed them at every turn. Putin is not a dictator, he is popular in Russia, but he's certainly no western-style democrat, and you can get bumped off if you cross the wrong people. Maybe Putin will just ride into the sunset, shirtless and all, wrestle some bears on the way and write a book about it all.

PLAY IT AGAIN VLAD? Putin is rearranging the orchestra of state in singularly unmusical ways. After all, there aren't many partners who would wish to dance with the Russian bear in the person of Putin. After all, his military mixing in in the Mideast has caused untold upheaval, political unrest and the suffering of million--both as refugees and as people held captive in war zones. He has created a dystopian landscape on a scallethat no communist leader would have ever attempted. Whatever the case, it is foreseeable that the orchestra-of-state will be playing his tune. Marching to the beat of his drum. And be required to dance with the Russian bear at Vlad's discretion.

Fascinating column. Thank you. How ironic that perhaps the last word in Russia may come from the people. If Putin’s tower base is stagnant, (crumbling?), he’s acted preemptively in an effort to put himself on a throne for life. However, he may well find out that the people are collectively even more powerful than he.

Any demigods desire to stay in power is directly proportional to their benefit of such power. Vladimir Putin. Not only does he have Russia, and Russians under his thumb, but he has America, under the leadership of Trump and the Republicans, under his thumb. Therefore we can expect Putin to stay in power for a very long time. For the benefits are extensive. The ability to rule and control two countries from a single perch. This power comes in many forms. With Russians, it’s State crushing authoritarianism. With Republicans, it’s called power-sharing and assistance. With Trump, it’s called blackmail.

There is no doubt that Putin is in control of what is happening in Russia. The reason for his timing is simple: to ensure that he remains in total control of what he is doing. He's got a four year grip on power to make these changes. The nature of the change is also simple: whatever Putin wants it to be. There is no hint today of anything that could alter his total control of these events, and again his timing is to ensure that. So what does Putin want for Russia? He's already got everything he wants for himself, and need only keep it. No doubt high on his list of what he wants is to continue to keep it. But what else does he want? Putin is so much the designed bad guy in American politics and press today that it is hard to get a serious answer to that serious question. Putin has been President for longer than he was ever a junior to mid level KGB officer. Being President is no doubt the dominant influence on his world view. What lessons has Putin taken from being President of Russia for so long? First, he perceives powerful enemies doing their considerable best to harm Russia as much as possible. Second, he perceives foreign efforts all around to turn Russia into an obedient resource colony to be exploited along the lines of other devastated resource rich ruins of countries. Third, he perceives that Russia does have the potential to rise above that, by discipline and hard work, and willingness to fight. Those lessons predict enough to understand.

Putin wil install puppets that he can control to keep power for himself. Thereby, he will not have to worry anymore about winning/rigging elections under his own name. And whenever there is a crisis or mass demonstrations, he can simply change the puppets.

What people fail to understand is that if it is that easy to change the constitution and it can be done in such secrecy, none of this speculation amounts to a hill of beans. If Putin doesn't like the way it's going in four years, he'll change it again. Same thing seems to have happened in Venezuela. Let's just hope it won't happen here.

"Mr. Mishutin, who took office when Mr. Putin announced the changes, is said to be an effective manager and a capable bureaucrat, but his major quality is that nobody could imagine him as the next Putin." That's what they said about Putin twenty years ago, and Stalin a hundred years ago.

If all this proposed change were real, it would have started now, so to get rid of the current oligo-kleptocracy (under the 'able', however disguised, dictatorship of Putin) where citizen's political freedom is nil (you may ask Nalvani), and their potential contribution, even diversification of their economy, is being wasted (to depend only on an eventually exhausted oil and gas industry). For now, the Russian people are being shortchanged, kept quiet as Putin spins his autocracy to 'free' them from the ills (i.e. corruption and inequality) of democracy...while actively trying to undermine it with cyber-subversion (no doubt, with Trumpian fervor but smarter). Putin's evil plan may boomerang, as the "Chekhov's Gun principle looks more and more like Damocles' sword (an allusion to the brittle position of those in power).

Unless mr. Putin's nature is indeed devine like mr. Xi's, he won't be around for ever. Most likely the Russian President realizes this fact of life and is construing a more decent way out of the labyrinth of authoritarian rule other than a coup d'état and its possibly nasty consequences.

"... one cannot escape the sense that he is haunted by memories of the sclerotic and impotent leadership of the Soviet Union in its waning years. That period led to crime, economic decline and chaos." At least Mr. Putin is thinking about the future of his country and how to ensure its long-term economic and political stability. I don't believe Mr. Trump's plans - assuming there is one - address anything but his own self-interest.

They say Putin is the richest person in the world; I don’t know for sure. I do know he’s by definition richer than Trump, because Putin owns Trump.

It is ridiculous to suggest that Medvedev was any danger to Putin, considering that his rating is much more weak than Putin's. It is also naive to think that the new Prime Minister could not be a next Putin, because he is unknown figure. When Putin became the Prime Minister he also was very unknown and nobody believed he would be so popular and would stay in power for so long. The lesson is just because Mishustin is unknown now, he could not be a strong leader in future.

2024 will come - and Putin will not step aside.

The Neocons and their liberal-interventionist fellow-travelers came to see Putin as a major and unwelcome obstacle to their dreams of permanent U.S. dominance over the planet, which they would promote through what amounted to permanent warfare. (The main distinction between Neocons and liberal interventionists is that the former cites “democracy promotion” as its rationale and the latter justifies war under the mantle of “humanitarianism.”) In February 2015, American oligarch George Soros laid out his “Russia-regime-change” vision in the New York Review of Books with an alarmist call for Europe “to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia” – despite the fact that it has been NATO encroaching on Russia’s borders, not the other way around. Soros’s hysteria amounted to a clarion call to his many dependents among supposedly independent “non-governmental organizations” to take up the goal of destabilizing Russia and driving Putin from office. As a currency speculator, who is not welcome to speculate in Russia, Soros recognizes the value of inflicting economic pain as well as military punishment on a target country.

"Resisting the West is Mr. Putin’s definition of Russian sovereignty." Why shouldn't resisting the West be of prime importance to Russia? December 2017 the National Security Archive at George Washington University posted online declassified US, Soviet, German, British and French documents revealing promises made to Gorbachev in February 1990, that if he removed all troops from East Germany and agreed to the reunification of Germany, in the words of George H. W. Bush’s secretary of state, James Baker, “iron-clad guarantees that NATO’s jurisdiction or forces would not move eastward”. Baker, assured his Soviet counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadze, that in a post-Cold War Europe NATO would no longer be belligerent – “less of a military organization, much more of a political one," The Clinton administration immediately began pushing NATO closer and closer to Russia’s borders. Most media ignored the release of these inconvenient documents revealing the GHWBush administration promises to Gorbachev. The Obama State Department admitted spending $5 billion to get a Ukrainian government that would want to join NATO. NATO expansion is the driving force behind the new US-Russian Cold War. Pushing for Ukraine to join NATO is insane. And Trump's understanding Russia's point of view, explains the Establishment's need to impeach Trump... for whatever. The US should try getting along with Russia.

I never thought Russia had a democracy, I'd always assumed it was a dictatorship under former KGB entities. I always assumed the Russian people knew this and were ok with it kinda like the modern Republican party wants to live under a puppet king whose owned by Russia. This is a given.

Putin's masterful manipulation of Current Occupant of the White House is the opening act of Scene 2. Many Senate Republicans are co operating in the final act of Scene 2. What happens in this so called drama will be determined by a few strong Americans some smart independently-minded Republicans could save the USA. A weary Nation waits its fate!

This op-ed is sort of naive. What motivates Putin? Survival. In the literal "will I stay alive" sense. Putin has maintained his position by pitting key interest groups against one another. He set up the continuing struggle between the corrupt oligarchs (who blatantly stole Russia's wealth in the Yeltsin era and grew it under Putin) vs. the siloviki (the government/security types who regained the levers of state enforcement and grabbed much of the wealth back). At every turn -- every wink, nod, understanding, formal approval -- Putin got his cut. A financial cut, individually and personally. There is much bitterness. Not so much from the narod (the "people") but from the interest groups held up for bribes. What Putin desperately needs is a strong enough federal government center to protect him in his dotage. Sort of like he protected Yeltsin. That's what he's struggling to build. And he's likely to fail. Personal retribution twinned with greed tends to be a stronger force than government institutions, at least in Russia.

The analysis is pretty weak and could be summarized by 'I have no ideas how the reform will work but I am sure Putin will be in power'. I understand distrust in Putin by the West, but I don't think it should influence of the objectivity of analysts and journalists. This analysis has a bunch of holes and misstatement. Sharing with claim that Soviet economic decline, crime, and chaos came in the last year's of 'sclerotic' Soviet leader, I assume, the author meant Brezhnev, but in reality it happened under relatively young and energetic reform-minding Gorbachev. So, if anything, the past of the SU taught not to introduce too much reforms. Actually, it is difficult to imagine why wouldn't be the next President won't be leader of the country just because the Prime minister will be appointed by the Parliament. The President in Russia has much more powers than just appointment of the Ministers, that are now a subject of the Parliament confirmation. And the limiting its tenure to two-terms hardly abolish the leadership of a President, not to mention, if the next President will be as strong as Putin, that could be changed as well. If anything suspicious in the reforms, it is probably the new powers to the State Council, but it is not defined yet and therefore, difficult to judge.

Top down corruption rules in Russia. Unless we want to support it here in the US we need to call out political conspiracy and corruption where we see it. Especially when it involves foreign governments and especially Russia.

Group Think is very, very hard to fight, for we humans are hard wired to resist standing up in our clan and pushing back against the majority. That would mean we stand outside our family circle, and that is frightening. China, Russia, and of course, the American military, are experts in making the minority view the only one that matters. Hugh

Interesting how Putin and his Communist buddies in the Russian secret service could so easily convert to Fascism and become capitalists. It only goes to show the sheer sillyness of getting too hung up on ideologies. Too me its fascinating to compare the way Russia has evolved to that of China over the past 30 years. Not that we have not evolved as well...but devolved might be a better choice of words in all three of these very complex and different societies. As Ross Perot said, the "devil is in the details." And so are the angels if we will take the time to cultivate them, but this requires giving up the world of entertainment for the hard work of political reform. In the meantime the Colosseum plays on.

"Chekhov's Gun"principle--I love it. The Russian equivalent of "be careful what you pray for." I can't imagine that Putin, if all he has is he world to run, would stand by as an onlooker should the demand for real democracy wash over the country. I'm sure there is some sort of escape hatch he has in mind for his technically less powerful position as head of the State Council should his administrators be confronted by the push for self governance led by Galvanya and others. Authoritarians don't cede power lightly. I wonder if upheaval in that country might indicate upheaval here as we face the undoing of our own institutions.

Krastev’s insight and lucidity has been a welcome addition to the editorial page. If one tries hard enough one can imagine the rules based world, which his thought processes and evidence elicit, actually exists. Knowing little about his background, other than that he is from Bulgaria, I wonder how he came to express such democratic ideals so cogently. Here’s to hearing more from Mr. Krastev and to being able to comment on his excellent writing. It’s a hopeful thing when evidence of what used to be thought of as American democratic principles is evinced by people worlds away. There’s far too little of that now in the home of free.

Putin's power base extends well beyond Russia and rests on a network of oligarchs that resembles the Ptolemies left behind by Alexander the Great. Putin is really more the President of Oil than of Russia. Oilmen have ruled this world since World War II, and Putin has harnessed that power by having his agent elected president of the U.S. Trump is driving the other oil-producing nations into Putin's arms. He has ceded the Middle East to Putin, along with Venezuela and Indonesia. He has signaled to the former Soviet Republics that they will get no help from the U.S. or NATO, which should help Putin tighten his control of the oil fields of the Caucuses. Corporate control of the world is trans-national and is based on oil and the defense industries created to protect it.