Perhaps this will change the minds of those that believe that borders should be 'erased' and people should come and go as they please.
64
Time for media to call this what scientists are calling it...another SARS outbreak.
New SARS-like virus in China triggers alarm
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6475/234
Chinese scientists isolated a new strain of coronavirus – given the initial designation of 2019-nCoV – which has been found to be at least 70 percent similar in genome sequence to SARS-CoV. With the development of a specific diagnostic PCR test for detecting the infection, a number of cases were confirmed in people directly linked to the market and in those who were not directly associated with it. Whether this virus is of the same severity or lethality as SARS is unclear.
11
Remember, there is no social media in China & most popular comm channels are monitored. Those that do have it travel outside & have a VPN. They are already clamping down on people violating SM governance. I guarantee this is way worse than we’re being told. In the west, the poor & uninsured will pay the price. Should be interesting to see how this plays out in the US.
27
China manufactures a lot of our pharmaceuticals. That’s an overlooked national security threat. Now we might get an overdue wake up, if the transport of goods from China is curtailed due to this virus outbreak.
45
My daughter is currently in Wuhan (where she lives and works). She says the US consular staff have left the city and any calls there or to Beijing get an automated message telling them to go to the hospitals (which are crowded and turning people away). Rumor are rampant and people are frightened. She sent me a screen grab reported to be a crying doctor saying that the size of the outbreak is larger than is being reported, but I (or anyone?) have no way to verify this. The consular web site has no information. This is very, very distressing!
79
If Chinese Govt didn’t lock down Wuhan, it will be criticised as being slow in responding and allowing the virus to become a pandemic. But when the Govt does shut down major cities like Wuhan, it is perceived as draconian and hence the Govt must be covering up the severity of the epidemic. The truth is that the new coronavirus so far appears to be closer in deadliness to the flu than to SARS. So why the drastic response? Because this is a new virus and has serious risk of mutating and turning into something much more infectious and deadly, and the number of people potentially carrying the virus is much larger than the confirmed cases because Wuhan is a major transportation hub and the seafood market had over one thousand shops and is close to the train station. What was most likely inadequate was the local Govt’s initial response to cases of infection because of lack of coordination with national health care officials and because of political incentives that prioritise economy and stability. But the subsequent response by the national Govt has been swift and decisive, which will help to curb the spread.
Instead of falling back to the standard trope about how Chinese Govt always covers things up, readers should try to understand better the complexity of China’s political system, it’s commonly criticised flaws as well it’s advantages. Max Fisher and Amanda Taub’s Interpreter column at NYT is a good starting point.
38
As a Chinese millennial who has studied abroad in the US, I would like to share my side of the story. The government had quarantined the city of Wuhan and the Hubei district stopping all transportation to stop the spread of the virus. From the social media platform of Weibo, individuals have condemned those who chose to take anti-fever medicine to try to get out of the quarantine zone, but these irresponsible individuals do not represent the tens of millions who choose to stay in Wuhan. However, the supplies in the city are falling short but ordinary citizens are trying to contribute as much as we can. The government is trying to build a temporary hospital in a week for Wuhan, and hopefully it will be finished. The government is also showing live updates on how many people are for sure infected and possibly infected and now it’s almost 2000 and 3000.
The most important challenge now is the LACK OF TEST KITS. It’s hard for all people (that’s probably tens of thousands) who show symptoms of the virus to test the virus and it’s been a long process for confirmation. This is the reason why all of us in China are also doubting the official number given by the government. .
In terms of the market where the virus came from, most Chinese doesn’t consume wild lives. We despise those who do because this action has encouraged a chain of illegal activities.
At the end of the day, we are all humans. This virus could be a problem we conquer together. Let’s try to be more open minded.
141
We should not admit any one From China, - of course we have to admit American Citizens, but we should put them in quarantine.
Our consulates in China should not issue ANY visa for Chinese citizens - this disease is spreading everywhere in the country and if Europe is not careful about their visas, it will spread to Europe too.
21
SARS 2003 from bat and now this coronavirus might be from snake. I think we all should eat more veggie and less meat. It is better for the environment and better for our health.
37
I agree but chicken is my favorite food. There are many farmers producing organic chicken and if people stop eating meat it would put them out of business. Leaving only the hormone fed chicken.
7
Enough of sitting back, eagerly anticipating the next misstep to mock or increase in deaths to show that the Chinese are bungling their response. In Trumpspeak, they responded in the biglyest way in history. They have locked down 35 million! Of course things are a bit strained. Remember how well we did with Katrina and the overflowing hospitals with H1N1. Where are the stories about the US offering help or supplies? We need to send some folks over to learn because sooner or later, something like this will happen here. We need boots on the ground to witness a mobilization of this magnitude, to see how they manage the logistics, the supply lines, the panic. What works and what doesn't. And, if this turns out to be a bad one, we need to help them hold the line. If they break, if the nation that has the will and power to lock down 35 million citizens fails, what chance does anyone have?
55
It is inconceivable that under Trump that the US will be of any help.
26
This is a looming disaster at a time when WHO is underfunded and the US is no longer leading global health policy. Perhaps the NYT can send a reporter to the Bloomberg Center at John Hopkins. They conducted a coronavirus simulation of New York city and the estimated death rates were dire.
25
@CHARLES @seat 1A
It is preposterous to blame underfunding of WHO and campaign for yet more money to them. Why? Because it is a corrupt organization that intentionally does not put public health as its first priority. Want proof? Just look at how it has handled this coronavirus matter so far.
The WHO refused to declare an international emergency and it admitted that China economic interests were part of their decision making not to declare an emergency.
You seem to be putting some partisan criticism of Trump and some of your own political agenda into this matter which is one of public health. Can't you take a break from partisan politics for at least just this once?
8
It has been reported elsewhere that China has built a BSL-4 (the most secure level) facility for studying dangerous pathogens in Wuhan. It is possible that the current situation may be due to a leak at this facility.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/amp/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html
There have been admitted leaks from other such facilities in China in the past.
18
China should ban the capture of wild animals for human consumption.
39
@Meenal Mamdani What about stop hunting deer and fishing in US?
We all need to eat more veggie and leave the poor wild animals alone.
24
China and the USA should work closely on fighting this WCV spreading like wild fire.
2
Those who show immunity should have their dna tested for a vaccine asap. They already have the map of the new virus. As for snakes as the source, there is anti-venom.
1
This is crazy it will only get worse the problem is people dont pay attention til.its to late I have a mom that has pnemonia but she isn't getting better o scared I dont want to lose my mom but she has had troubl breathing so I'm very scared she has been in and out.of hospital but I'm so afraid. She may have got it from hospital
8
@Michelle jones That is super scary; really hard to feel like you don't have the tools or any control over the situation. Good luck to your mom, sending a prayer :-). xo
12
There should be a worldwide ban on these wet markets in China and other Asian countries. It is completely unhygienic and disgusting . We can thank China for all these horrible deadly viruses like SARS .
28
Maybe this outbreak will force the Chinese authorities to finally crack down on wildlife trafficking and consumption of wild animals that was the source of the virus.
41
The Ebola virus caused so many more deaths. Remember the Vika in Brazil? No, those were not as important. Ask yourself, why?
12
"The C.D.C. told reporters that 63 patients in 22 states were under investigation for the coronavirus; 11 have tested negative. "
Oh my, not good! Imagine having to close O'Hare and quarantaine Chicago. Not possible in the U.S.!
Some right-wing nutjob would call it a power-grab by the "Deep State", acouse FEMA and the CDC of running secret prisons inside (or was it under?) Walmarts and call on all his friends to get out their AR-15s.
Because, if you have a pandemic, a civil war is just what you need, just ask all these Ebola-stricken countries in Afrika, the two go along like a house on fire, literally...
So, I wish you all the best, but I actually fear the worst, sorry.
16
There is no way Beijing would implement this quanrantine if it isn't worse than is being reported, especially when they're conscious about the economy right now. Videos coming out of Wuhan are now showing dead bodies in hospital hallways covered with sheets.
24
We’re all doomed, doomed I tell you.
8
Sorry NYTimes, this story should have top billing over the impeachment. I didn’t have a single person bring up the impeachment this week but everyone was talking Wuhan.
45
"The new figures, announced early Saturday, represented a nearly 60 percent jump from the previous death toll of 26."
Please stop the sensationalism. 26 to 41 does not remotely equal the Spanish Flu (the toll would already be in the hundreds of thousands, if that were the case—the 1918 flu killed people in a day, 100 million by the time it ended).
Should we have our guard up: yes. Should we panic (as the market did a bit today): no.
Try to make me believe that the NYT has not descended into yellow journalism, or, as Gore Vidal once wrote, become "the Typhoid Mary of journalism." Do some responsible reporting here, as in, the mortality rate among those who are confirmed as having the virus.
13
@Wiltontraveler
Far as I can see, no one has mentioned the Spanish flu except you.
13
The US should quarantine everyone entering the country from China, immediately.
12
Trump compliments the Chinese response. Why does that fill me with dread? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/trump-thanks-chinas-xi-jinping-for-handling-of-coronavirus.html
10
World population is well over 7 billion. People can’t even comprehend what that means. It took over 200,000 years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion, and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion. Over population is stressing all resources. Maybe technology could help but governments of the world are being taken over by people who deny scientific research. We are due for a correction. Mother nature always wins in the end.
29
In 2002 I had booked a flight a flight to Shanghai with KAL, prior to the SARS outbreak.
KAL allowed me to cancel without penalty and refunded my non-refundable ticket. A year later
I traveled to Shanghai where my temperature was checked by handheld scanners wielded by
security people on arrival and at every train station during my stay. I was checked multiple times
On departure from Pudong a/p.
I wonder how effective these remote scanners were, if they are still in use and are there even
More effective ways to do a “remote screening of masses of travelers w/o bogging down the system.
3
I was in Chernobyl - on way from Kiev - we are shown a documentary on history of this accident.
It showed how the Communists in Moscow did everything to minimize or even deny an explosion. Only when, Scandinavian countries reported a nuclear dust cloud - Moscow came clean.
Something similar here.
The Communists - having spent decades - convincing Chinese of the utopia they are creating - are loath to admit - may be, it's not utopia after all.
I have been in some of these Chinese markets - hard to believe that we don't have more epidemics of these kinds.
I think it's going to be a deja Vue SARS all over again.
Though it may last a little less long - though with warmer weather around the corner - there is no telling.
What I don't understand is why we are not enforcing a travel ban on Chinese in the first place. This is an unintended bio terrorism if you ever saw one.
The least could be to ban any direct flights to Wuhan and insist airlines disclose origins of passengers.
15
There is nothing similar. What China is doing is the gold standard in infectious disease control. They published the genome of the virus, they lock-downed the city when evidence support this approach, they are making sure only accurate, verifiable informations given to the public.
21
The article reports negative reaction from Chinese citizens to the Wuhan government’s handling of the crisis, but it is not clear to me, at least not from reading this article, how the government fell short of the proper response. To me it seems like they have been all over this right from the start ...
5
From a personal perspective, I’m curiously thinking that China isn’t being entirely honest regarding the number of individuals infected by the Corona Virus. I’m leaning toward the thought that the number of infected people is much higher than what the government in China is reporting. It is common of government to keep things such as this under-wrap, in order to avoid public hysteria. This is possibly much more serious than what it is being portrayed.
15
Or its possible that it is exactly like what is reported and the Chinese government is discovering new cases as was expected.
9
A friend of mine who knows many mainland Chinese was told that the government is seriously under-reporting cases. 1,000 cases have been officially acknowledged but 5,000 - 10,000 may be the more accurate number.
If that is true, it is more likely that this virus is being spread person to person and could pose a serious health risk to millions in China and beyond.
8
Bar travel to and from China. It’s the only way to make sure this doesn’t spread around the globe.
We have a carrier in Seattle, and one now in Chicago. This is insane.
I don’t trust China to contain this.
26
Mr. Zakaria said that The Doomsday clock cites, "...nuclear war, climate change, and [and in 2019] the emergence of disinformation and cyber warfare, which “undercuts society’s ability to respond” to the first two. “Agreement on facts is essential to democracy and effective collective action."
This is the existential threat looming over this latest disease outbreak, having started in a country known for its disinformation through state run news media and now beginning to spread in the United States, under a president who may well be a more malignant liar than the Chinese government.
10
The reason so many of these new diseases are coming out of China is because they eat exotic (and endangered) animals, which they consider delicacies. Humans have had very little contact with these animals in the past, and now they are in outdoor food markets everywhere. Please read David Quammen’s book “Spillover.” He discusses the rise of spillovers—animal to human diseases. It’s fascinating and frightening.
18
@Kb What makes an animal "exotic" beyond the fact that it doesn't show up on a McDonald's menu? They eating unicorns or something?
3
Fear in the affected area reasonable. In the US during SARS global outbreak of 2002-3 there were 8 infected mostly having visited the Guadong area and none died. Even before the outbreak hospitals always ask where one has traveled from in past few weeks to protect the vulnerable.
3
Death toll rising....and rising at increasing rate. Now spread to Europe and another case in US. Meanwhile, Trump still either asleep at the wheel or pulling another Obama (Ebola) and refusing to impose total ban on all non-US citizens from entering US if they have been in China within prior 30 days.
UN's WHO still protecting China's economic interests by refusing to declare emergency. Our CDC (still headed by a presidential political appointee like during Obama) withholding information from public.
We must protect ourselves since we have been abandoned by our government.
1) Do not fly, not even domestically. Planes pack you in like sardines and intentionally recirculate the air during flight.
2) Avoid hotels, especially major ones that cater to international traveling businessmen, government people, and tourists.
3) Get masks while you still can.
4) Stock up on packaged foods to reduce needed trips to go out to shop later.
5) Avoid all tourist attractions.
6) Avoid major West Coast urban areas since Chinese visitors frequent them.
7) If you must fly, avoid connecting in LAX, SFO, and SEA since those 3 airports receive most inbound Chinese flights and passengers connecting on pass through the airport.
8) Avoid crowded venues like theaters and restaurants.
9) Pray this thing burns itself out on its own and all your precautions turn out to have been unnecessary over-reaction.
10
Or rent a house in the Northern Kingdom of Vermont and wait it out, or Saranac Lake NY.
8
This all originated in a live animal market.
Just another of over a hundred reasons why we should all adopt a plant-based diet.
28
I sure wouldn't want to share airplane cabin air with whoever is bringing this illness to the United States. Airplanes seem like the perfect transmission medium.
11
China, What a country! They continue manufacture internationally banned CFCs, chemicals that both destroy the ozone layer and are 11,000 worse than CO2 in causing global warming. Due to horrible agricultural practices, China manufactures for the world annually new viruses that kill millions. And the Chinese belt and road project exports political corruption to vulnerable third world countries, bankrupting nations across the globe. No wonder Trump has nice things to say about the current Chinese president.
14
Are we getting accurate numbers? The Chinese lied about SARS. There are too many sick people, and the virus is spreading too quickly, for it to be communicated solely through contact with animals or close contact with an infected person - as the Chinese continue to claim. It sounds as though this virus has mutated and is airborne.
I don’t trust the Chinese. The World Health Organization needs to declare an international emergency before this virus explodes into a pandemic.
11
Gotta love the armchair doctors and epidemiologists being out in full force. Back up your claims with credible source, not just ‘my friend somewhere said this’ or ‘I don’t think that’.
15
The US should quarantine cities due to gun violence. Or opioid deaths. Works for me.
5
The planet is a living organism. People are the parasitic invaders. Lethal viruses are the Earth’s natural immune system. Think about that. Did we really think that we could spawn another 6 billion people in the last 100 years without some kind of response? No healthcare system in the world can operate in a crisis at this level. No country has a credible response plan to deal with millions of sick and dying people. Yes, we’re all scared of the possibilities, and it’s not just the virus. It’s still a dangerous world out there, and events like these show us just how insignificant we are in the grand scheme of things.
8
The problem with epidemics is that not enough people are dying from them. As such, they are an inefficient way of keeping human population in check.
6
Little Greta wanted a brighter future
2
Put on a mask, made in China! Wonder how long the virus can live on one of those.
1
The root cause is bad health practices in China. This is how it starts. Once it starts it quickly spreads in this day of easy international travel. Why do Chinese officials still allow these virus breeding animal practices to exist? Same reason ours allow practices on animal farms that are almost as bad. We pump animals full of antibiotics. Really stupid in the long run. Animal farming and breeding need more, not less control. And the really bad practices in counties like China simply need to be outlawed. Take one look at the facility where it started. Would you want to eat anything that passed through their?
9
SARS and Ebola were both supposed to wipe out humanity. Yet we are still here.
This too will pass.
9
There seems to be a lot of undue freaking out for what seems to be a rather nasty cold. Even if the amount of reported cases and deaths is understated, it probably doesn’t warrant this level of media hysteria. Secondly we are most likely witnessing the media reaction to the communist Chinese government’s over reaction. The state run dictatorship in China can impose sharp curbs on human rights and impose unnecessary quarantines just to look like they are busy.
I happen to live in South Korea which is a much more free country by comparison, but they pulled a lot of the same paranoia when the swine flu was in full swing. I’m guessing that a lot of people will probably catch this virus and then not do anything, because it will just feel like cold symptoms, their bodies will fight it off and then they will have an immunity.
7
This could be a big one folks, maybe even _the_ big one.
#1:Block - or quarantine - anyone trying to enter the U.S. who is coming from China.
#2: Quarantine anyone who is currently in the U.S. who entered from China within the past 3 weeks
#3. Implement emergency public health task force with power to declare Martial Law and control all movement within the U.S.
4
@kenzo
Almost the last person on the planet I want declaring martial law is Trump.
6
The "patient" being moved to a hospital in the accompanying photo looks more like a corpse to me. Are we sure that was really a patient and not a corpse?
7
Get your flu shot, you are much more likely to die of flu than this Corona virus.
17
Maybe Kosher rules make sense to prevent outbreaks of disease. Now that the newest deadly virus has penetrated American, European and Asian borders, the WHO will impose more sanctions.
3
The new coronavirus was identified by the Chinese on Jan. 8. By that date, the new virus had affected dozens of people in Wuhan. Then there were isolated instances of the virus in nearby countries – Japan on Jan. 6, South Korea on Jan. 13, Thailand on Jan. 13 and 15. By Jan. 17, 2 people had died, and at least 45 been sickened with the new virus.
Then, on Jan. 18, there's a potluck banquet in Wuhan for 40,000 families. That is crazy and absolutely irresponsible.
11
And just what would a “forceful response” be?
Isn’t it now clear that the Chinese government is a bad actor. A bad actor in stealing intellectual property, historically a bad actor in currency manipulation, a bad actor in surveillance and political oppression, a bad actor in the internment of Uighur ethnic minorities in concentration camp-like conditions while denying this fact....and once again a bad actor by not only permitting the conditions which foster pandemic conditions but then actively cover up and suppress facts of the virus placing their own population and that of the entire world at risk. Just when will the world hold China accountable for their actions?
13
Both of China's infectious disease outbreaks in these last decades -- SARS and the emergence of the current coronavirus --are zoonotic in nature. China's insatiable appetite for animal protein, whether dead or alive -- namely a live game market which has been found to be the culprit in the current outbreak -- hatches these epidemics.
This reality, layered on top of rampant dog meat farms and Chinese gangs deliberately spreading pig swine for profit (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3042122/chinese-criminal-gangs-spreading-african-swine-fever-force) -- amoral, boundless gluttony.
16
For anyone interested, the best movie concerning the events which are occurring in China is "Contagion". It is much more realistic than "Outbreak". I gives a very reasonable portrayal of the beginnings and spread of a contagious disease. It presents concepts such are Ro which represents the ability of an infection to spread. Measles is highly contagious with an Ro of approximately 12 (each infected individual will infect 12 additional susceptible individuals). "Contagion" not only covers this basic concept but also the efforts to monitor and contain the spread of infection.
It deals very well with the complexities of this issue in a globalized civilization with easy and affordable travel.
12
Many of my fellow commenters on this article appear to under-estimate the difficulties involved in controlling an outbreak in a world where you can get on a plane and be anywhere in 12 hours. I support the hard work and tremendous effort that is currently being expended by the brave and hard working public health workers in China. They are facing a major challenge.
88
@PAUL Tribble- I sure hope that we aren't looking at a pandemic.
1
Is it possible to get independent international monitors in there? I do not trust the Chinese Communist Party, which is known for censorship and propaganda, to tell the truth.
Given that this could become a global health crisis, we need a reliable source of information.
34
Monitor for what? They are doing the best they can to contain the virus. How is monitor going to help? If you really care, send some doctors and medical supplies.
6
@L
When has the US ever permitted the presence of 'international monitors' for anything?
4
@L
Great idea except for one thing...who would be dumb enough to go there to monitor?
4
"Contagion" was a great movie. I don't care to see the real-life reenactment.
22
My friends in Wuhan estimate a total death in the thousands, for the hospitals are now full and suspected patients have to go home. They will get assigned a bed only when another patient dies. The number of confirmed infected/deaths is low because Wuhan lack the proper tool to examine the coronavirus. It's like Chernobyl both in the sense of the reading is breaking the scale and in the sense that officials are too scared to learn about the latest and craziest development.
The disease is worse than SARS. Similar to SARS, it can be killed by immune system but no effective cure has been found. It's different in terms that it spreads faster and patients die slower. Unlike SARS, the coronavirus spread quickly in wild animals, making them dangerous vectors. Unlike Beijing government, Wuhan government surpressed the news for a full month, allowing worst possible spread of the disease. The Shanghainese paramedic organization Jizhenyeying estimates that it will be over by April or May. I would expect worse.
89
Based on your comment, I now actually support Chinese government’s effort to crackdown down on rumors.
NYT journalist is on the ground in Wuhan and there’s no report of mass death or any suggestion of intentional under reporting. I thought NYT readers know better than spreading words with zero creditable support.
15
@ZL this is similar to what I am hearing from my daughter who lives in Wuhan
13
I wonder if our university systems are ready for an outbreak? The University of California system has a very large international Chinese student population. I read that UK universities are placing a quarantine on students traveling from China for the New Year holiday. Seems like a prudent decision.
54
Keep messing around with factory farming and antibiotics and hormones and eventually you reap what you sow.
20
@Hmmm
This is not that. This is antiquated style, live animals in open markets from small vendors, coupled with human overpopulation. In the US we sell dead animals and that is better as it is less likely to allow animal-to-human transmission. And antibiotics do not affect animal viruses. Do some deeper learning, since the sun has finally come out in Seattle.
43
@Hmmm ...actually it was illegally sold wild snake starting this outbreak.
6
@Hmmm @Will Hogan
Factory farming, antiviral usage in livestock, live animals in open markets, and human overpopulation are all things to blame. There are probably many other reasons as well, but this is no time to be hostile.
1
Some of the comments propagating false news denigrating China's efforts to contain this calamity are shameful and repugnant....even if China is viewed by some of us as an adversary, or an enemy by some of the Taiwanese and sympathizers.
It would behoove all nations -including the United States, and yes, even Taiwan, to provide support to the people of China by offering to send teams of infectious diseases specialists, masks, and whatever else might be in short supply in China.
We, in the United States, are blessed on many levels and are known for our generosity and willingness to help others during hard times, earthquakes, epidemics, fires etc.
Let us demonstrate to the world what we really are...and not the current aberrant anomaly of our Administration.
82
@Confucius
NO! We are going to need all the masks we can get and all the infection experts we can get. China is in a serious problem because China let this thing get out of control. The US will soon be in a serious problem because our government refuses to take action to prevent people coming into the US who have been in China. We will now likely have a rapidly growing outbreak.
Our "experts" withhold information from us. They think they know all and are much smarter than the public. They think they should withhold information from dumb us because we might panic if we knew the truth. Only fools now trust our government to protect us.
3
@Confucius Stop stealing our IP. "False news", i.e fake news, is an American invention...
Kidding aside, I am 100% in agreement with you that when it comes to threats like these, national borders and national ideologies must take second place to assistance in time of need. Not only is helping the right thing to do, but it will lead to gratitude and a reduction in tension exacerbated by aberrant anomaly administrations that are worse than any disease threat...
2
I am fine with assistance. But in return I expect their government to worry less about infringing the rights of their people and spending more time on their archaic and awful animal practices that lead to such out breaks repeatedly.
5
I watched Soderbergh's "Contagion" with a dispensation of belief. And now I'm not sure.
13
This coronavirus does not seem to be as lethal as the SARS coronavirus, and SARS was contained after a much larger outbreak, so it is probably not the end of civilization as we know it. I'm just saying this since the stock market seems to think so.
11
@Will Hogan
Yeah. Because what’s really important is the stock market, not the suffering of humans and the possibility of a worldwide epidemic. This attitude is what sickens me.
4
@Will Hogan "probably not the end of civilization as we know it"
Until a little but critical mutation occurs, and then it is...
4
@Will Hogan ...exactly Will. Not that I making light of the problem, but in 2019, 61 thousand people died worldwide and 2017-18 flu season 81 thousand and I didn’t see it in the breaking news.
8
Unfortunately, China has a tenuous connection with intellectual honesty and truth-telling. That is why the World Health Organization needs to take control of the Chinese medical response. The alternative is an increased possibility of a pandemic. The west should bar travel to and from China until the WHO is given authority.
35
@Snowball Not that I making light of the problem, but in 2019, 61 thousand people died worldwide and 2017-18 flu season 81 thousand and I didn’t see it in the breaking news.
ABC news:"Flu deaths are up more than 65% so far in 2020, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized."
Check out your own backyard, before you bashing China.
8
Chinese officials publicly posted the genetic sequence of this new virus within a few days of the outbreak, confirming the virus originated in China and prompting global scientific collaboration on a vaccine.
Is this to atone for China's inadequate response in the early months of the SARS epidemic when they attempted to hide the SARS virus and its origins? Or was the sequence so readily shared because China's officials recognized the need for international cooperation on a vaccine because the virus is much more dangerous than they are currently stating? I sincerely hope it's the former.
17
Probably both. Also just the fact that sequencing technologies have improves leaps and bounds in the last 15 plus years.
2
@Sarah ... I live in China and what I see is that the government’s response is just as good as you would expect from any government. The government is closing down number of cities to curb spreading of the disease. Considering that it’s the most important Chinese Holliday period and it’s unpopular decision, you have to give them credit.
10
The key metric to follow is evidence of local spread (outside of China, none so far), not how many imported cases are reported.
If/when that happens, it will likely push the WHO over the edge to declare an emergency.
A key question still being investigated is the ease and mode of transmission, particularly if asymptomatic carriers exist and if and how much one is infectious during the incubation period. Secondary screening of contacts of the imported cases is certainly warranted.
20
@cbum
Exactly - we won't know how serious this is until the virus has time to cook in other localized populations. We must stay vigilant.
2
Of course many people do not seek medical care for the flu or a flu-like illness. I never do. So who knows how many people may be infected and unknowingly carrying it.
There are so many viruses and a new one is just a mutation away at any time that it is inevitable that at some point we will be faced with a very virulent pandemic.
19
And this is why I think the true number will be drastically underreported. The younger people who are reasonably healthy will fight this at home and that never see a doctor, survive but will never be counted. Most that are dying are older or immune compromised, like the common seasonal flu.
My opinion is that China’s reputation of hiding things won’t help them. I have no idea if they’re actually being transparent (I suspect not) but even if they are, no one would believe them. It’s clear this is a big problem since infected people have been diagnosed across the northern hemisphere.
27
@BC I live in China and what I see is that the government’s response is just as good as you would expect from any government. The government is closing down number of cities to curb spreading of the disease. Considering that it’s the most important Chinese Holliday period and it’s unpopular decision, you have to give them credit.
6
@Scott Werden ... exactly Scot. Not that I making light of the problem, but in 2019, 61 thousand people died worldwide and 2017-18 flu season 81 thousand and I didn’t see it in the breaking news.
ABC news:"Flu deaths are up more than 65% so far in 2020, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized."
Obviously, this new virus outbreak deserves all the attention, because there is no vaccine and common flu is preventable by vaccination. I haven’t been sick with flu ever since have been vaccinated, past 30 years.
1
This is what the Chinese are allowing to be reported--it is probably far worse. The air travel worldwide will probably drop severely. The stock market is already reacting because travel restrictions make it difficult to go to work in China.
39
Two years ago I came down with "the plague"--at least that is what I called it. I had a hacking cough, fever, etc and it would not go away. Early on I got tested for the flu--they said no, you have the "corona virus". I remember it because of the many jokes I mad about the kind of Corona, with a lime, that I would really like to have.
Anyhoo.
I was sick for a really long time. I went to urgent care 2x. But I never felt in danger.
If this is a more acute version of that, yuck. That was one memorable illness. It was truly hard to shake.
Hope they can keep this contained.
51
I don't suppose any of the medical professionals you consulted offered any ideas on how you might have contracted this virus?
1
Coronavirus is, along with rhinovirus, one of the causes of the common cold. And in response to your comment about the patient looking like a corpse, I reviewed our hospital infectious disease containment policy today, it is stipulates that patients be fully covered with a sheet or blanket when being transferred. Likely the reason for your “corpse”.
4
We will have people with no medical insurance and no sick days showing up at work with, perhaps, early symptoms. Store front medical clinics and the risk of a $100, $200 or more bill won’t be an option. This may be a good time to rethink about how we protect life, which seems to be a priority of our president.
82
Unfortunately Americans have to learn through experience. We are dismissive of experts, science and facts.
15
@Practical Thoughts ...exactly. I live in China and what I see is that the government’s response is just as good as you would expect from any government.
On other hand...
ABC news:"Flu deaths are up more than 65% so far in 2020, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized."
I see no one is making this breaking news.
Many of the comments here are unfairly bashing China instead of checking their own backyard.
Chinese government is doing all they can to curb the spread of the disease, as oppose Americans are worried about finances and praying to non existing entity.
1
@Practical Thoughts And a president who gutted the CDC
5
26 people? And this sort of immediate and ironbound response?
Not believable.
I am not given to conspiracy theories, but this number sounds likely reduced by a factor of 100.
47
No way. This is history being heeded. It’s an appropriate preventative response.
6
@Hollis
That would be unlikely, but considering the fact that all those hospitals are currently overwhelmed, a good number of oversea cases, quarantining 23M people and terrifyingly unresponsive politics, the number is certainly higher; 10,000 would be a moderate estimation as of 24 Jan
10
Please note the big elephant in the room: overpopulation, industrial low-grade (i.e. no nutrition & lots of chemicals) food production, and in general, globalization & climate change...due to overpopulation/overconsumption & global poverty---i.e. poor people only have access to cheap foods.
It's an insidious loop, no matter which way you look at it.
Re-localization is only a first step to solving these problems.
Re-directing all war machine $$$ toward the welfare of the global society would also be an essential step.
Then let's also look at BigPharma, the overuse of antibiotics, the raping of the Amazon forests (courtesy of the Brazilian dictator) which unleashes dormant ancient viruses into the biosphere...etc etc. The human species is at the heart of Malthusian scenarios.
60
The population was much lower at the time of the 1918 flu pandemic. We also had very different conditions in terms of travel, urbanization etc. I think pandemics just happen. How bad they get may well be affected by the factors you noted.
23
@cassandra antibiotics have nothing to do with viruses. And this is not an "ancient dormant virus", it's likely a newly mutated strain of what is an extremely common virus that pretty much everyone gets infected with at one point or another.
31
@James
The mortality of flu and corona viruses is primarily due to bacterial pneumonia which of course is treated with antibiotics. So while antibiotics have no effect on the virus itself, they are key to subsequent infections.
29
This shows that we’ve all got to be a lot more careful regardless of where we live. We’ve all got to pay more attention to practicing good hygiene, being more aware of what our body is trying to tell us, be discriminating in the foods we consume, demand our governments enact and enforce stringent requirements on those who sell us product and the like. And we’ve all got to watch out for each other too.
15
@Peter And if we live in China or elsewhere in the so-called developing world, stay away from Wet Markets, where wild animals are sold as food.
9
@Lyn ...ABC news:"Flu deaths are up more than 65% so far in 2020, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that 4,800 people had died and 87,000 people had been hospitalized."
I see no one is making this breaking news.
Many of the comments here are unfairly bashing China instead of checking their own backyard.
2
In January 2018 China inaugurated the Wuhan bio-safety level four (BSL-4) laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). I believe that this is the source of the outbreak. The (commonly found) live animal market is the government's alibi for the accidental release of this pathogen.
37
The most important issue is not discussed: Are sick people contiguous before they show symptoms of fever, or after? This issue will have the biggest impact on the near future spread of the disease.
22
It may not be known as of right now if someone is contagious during the incubation period.
4
@Herzel there are Chinese social media posts about asymptomatic cases spreading the disease. Not sure how accurate they are but it is certainly worrying.
1
To get a bid closer to actual fatality of this Wuhan Virus, we may start asking the necessary questions and then look at the available data: One such question is on how do the first 100 people with an admitted case of 2019-nCoV do today? How many have died, how many of them are still in treatment and how many have been lucky/cured and able to leave hospital? When do we see a news article - maybe here in the NYT - going after this question? The WHO needs to know...just as much as we need to know.
18
This is simply an unbelievable story of this virus spreading so fast.
I lived in Indonesia during SARS epidemic.
And it was alarming though not sure more from the press coverage than a reality.
2 plus decades later - this one seems even more ominous.
But I am thinking why are we even allowing planes from China to land in America?
As I understand from news reports this virus is fast spreading.
While nothing comparable - we quarantined a lot of folks during AIDS when not much was known.
I also think that for a long time during the heydays of Al Quaeda - we worried about a "dirty" bomb.
Heck if I remember right - there was a panic in Chicago over a dirty bomb incident.
Here is a situation where a virus could kill a lot of Americans.
Very akin to a dirty bomb.
Come to think of it - potential terrorists may have found a new weapon unless we demonstrate a forceful response.
27
Too bad for us that the CDC is part of the "Deep state"...
O well. FOX is having a special tonight where they will advise the people how to proceed...
The President will be listening.
20
One more reason for the US to adopt universal healthcare
96
@Hank Morgan ...scary words you are saying. I mean to all the insurance executives.
3
"She said France reported the first European cases “because we were very quick in establishing the test and identifying the cases.”
In the interests of (essentially pointless) national pride, I would point out that the UK completed the first tranche of suspect case testing 48hrs earlier. All negative so far - but now many more persons are under medical investigation.
10
Two decades ago I would have been up in arms to defend our French equivalent of CDC and our healthcare system but nowadays I'd advise you to not listen to our authorities. They are as derelict as anywhere else in the world and what Ms Buzyn says is mostly to show French people everything is under control, our politicians are good to talk the talk. Considering the state of our public hospitals, nothing will be under control if there's a serious pandemic.
11
I know that the ACLU would go to court immediately if the government were to impose travel restrictions or attempt to close cities down to prevent people from entering or exiting.
6
@JimH
But we can should already have done a total ban of all non-US citizens from entering the US if they come from China or have been in China within the prior 30 days. That means EVERYONE including diplomats. But Trump is either asleep at the wheel or pulling another Obama (Ebola) refusing to impose a travel ban, which is effectively rolling out the welcome mat for this disease to keep entering the US.
13
@JimH And the ACLU would lose since the old laws still on the books providing for mandatory quarantines are still valid in an emergency.
9
@Errol Why allow US-citizens to enter the USA if they come from China or have been in China within the prior 30 days? You are "effectively rolling out the welcome mat for this disease to" enter the USA.
If you are concerned about contagion, the "citizenship" of a traveller is irrelevant. Imposing a travel ban for "non-US citizens" entering from China but allowing US citizens to enter from China will not address the issue of "contagion", as the US citizen returning from Wuhan might be a carrier of the virus.
This is a problem we have faced in the past and will most likely have to deal with in the future. Blaming the President at the time, no matter his/her party, will not solve it.
11
Watch what happens in China.
It's going to happen here. But we can learn from the cautionary tale.
We probably won't but we still can.
It seems completely predictable that people are nervous.
That the symptoms of cold and flu during the cold and flu season will make everybody afraid they have it — but keep that fear in check. Don't panic.
When they announce It's here! Call your doctor. Schedule a test only if they say it's warranted. Don't flood the emergency rooms where the real sick people are if you're sniffling for two days.
Don't believe anything on Social Media.
Nada. Zilch.
Even take info on news sites with a grain of salt. Listen for updates on the science and stay focused on the science.
A big pandemic is like a big earthquake — it's when not if.
So far this does not seem to be the big one as it seems to kill only a fraction of those who get it and mostly only the weak. Cold comfort I know but keeping that in mind, when it does get here be willing to self isolate if you get it. Don't rush to see grandma one last time because you'll probably live even if you catch it and she might not if you give it to her.
Contagion is not rocket science.
Dare I say it — walk or ride a bike instead of the bus or subway. Don't kiss and shake hands. Wash your hands _ all that stuff is easy to do. Because if it comes here the government is not going to save us, we'll have to save each other.
79
@Arthur Don't kiss or shake hands? Is that subway advice or just advice in general? I'm probably not going to stop kissing my wife and holding her hand even IF she happens to get the virus. I'll simply go down with the ship with her.
One thing you can do at home is use good common sense practices in the kitchen. Wash dishes, etc., with HOT water and don't worry you might get your piddy pats too hot. ;)
3
Doctor in a Wuhan hospital estimates the number of infected patients to be 100,000. Many doctors melted down after a day's of work facing hundreds of patients begging for any treatment.
21
@John Yep and it's not very comforting to see the medical personnel donned in full body hazmat suits......
2
@John Where did you get this info?
1
@John my daughter sent me a screen grab of a doctor crying, making this claim while also saying she saw dozens die. My daughter is currently in Wuhan. There is a lot of fear and rumors AND the US consular staff LEFT THE CITY!
1
If people are being turned away from hospitals, it already seems probable that it is a larger concern than presently stated. This will undoubtedly get worse, but is it already worse than stated.
29
I hope your reporter is safe. Please update us. Colleagues from China are telling us that their health care system is overwhelmed. There is a severe lack of protective gear for the clinical staff. It seems many clinical staff are tired after extended hours of duty. Clinical staff are being flown from other cities to affected regions. Death rates appear to be greater than what has been admitted thus far. It seems most of the people who died had other medical conditions and very few healthy people succumbed. It seems to behave like Flu in that regard. But this is very preliminary. The Goverment of China clearly has failed in providing important updates to their people. There is total chaos. All this tells me that China, as big as they are, needs help. They should ask as the world is willing to help. We are in it together.
32
May I remind all those judgmental eyes in the West
USA Population - 327 million
China Population - 1390 million
You say, "China’s propaganda machine has ramped into overdrive as the authorities fight the spread of the coronavirus, praising the sacrifices of responders and everyday people amid continued criticism online of the government’s efforts to address the disease"
Lines like these only shows how threatened the propaganda machine in the West is about China. It may continue to serve the purpose of the mighty US military-industrial complex where most of our money is burned to keep the empire going but it does so much injustice to the fantastic technological advancements that humanity has made to address global epidemics in a timely fashion.
Learn to give credit when it is due.
20
China‘s population is 1.435 Billion as of 11-2019
1
@Jagan Right on Jagan. I am American living in China. My doctor’s visit cost is $1.50 and meds are also inexpensive. I wonder what are your expenses.
Sure, there is propaganda, but is aimed mostly to prevent panic. Many of the comments here are unfairly bashing China instead of checking their own backyard.
4
Evidently there is a National Biosafety Lab located in Wuhan, the epicenter of the current disease outbreak. I’m not seeing any attention being paid to this. I’m wondering if this is just a coincidence or if in fact the disease outbreak is related to this research facility. It would be great if attention were paid to this question and maybe less speculation as to whether it’s due to eating bats or snakes for now.
40
@Greenie
Link to a Nature Journal article from 2017 about the lab :
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
7
That’s quite the theory. The explanation, tracing exposure back to an open air market with wild animals, who commonly are infected with coronavirus, being butchered for food (a common vector of transmission) doesn’t cut it?
11
I honestly don’t know. But given the existence of this lab, I’d like to see this potential link explored. And given how fast this virus is exploding in the population and the drastic steps China is taking in an attempt to contain it, I just wonder....
6
When the coronavirus death toll in China from the current outbreak was at 24, the ages of these victims were published by Bloomberg. The average age of these victims was 71.9 years with a median age at death of 71.5 years. Many of these victims, in addition to their age, which may be indicative of less efficient and effective immune systems, overall; also had other illnesses which probably increased the chances of a successful invasion by the coronavirus, simply because this virus could now act as a more opportunistic disease. It could now attack a previously engaged, or weakened, immune system. With the immune systems of many of these individuals protecting against a more diversified, panoply of illnesses, the coronavirus attacks were more lethal.
[01/24/2020 F 1:56 pm Greenville NC]
9
The videos leaking out show chaos in hospitals with infected people stuck in long lines of thousands of worried well. Those chaotic waiting rooms are obviously exposing hundreds of thousands to the infected people seeking treatment. Definitely NOT under control and getting worse by the day.
11
In discussing perspective, one must consider the possibility of under reporting. Present data does not appear to support the unprecedented quarantine. A possible reliable derivative is to determine movement of Chinese population not under the quarantine. (Specifically the families of high ranking members of the CPC.)
6
Audio from a doctor in a Wuhan hospital at the frontline said to family estimated that number of infected to be at least 100,000, many more than reported. Many doctors melted down.
9
@John
Doctors are as vulnerable to panic and exaggeration as the general public.
Trust me. I used to be one.
10
@nolongeradoc I watched some of the leaked videos by patients and doctors in those hospitals, the number of suspected patients are in hundreds for sure. If you add them up, I think that will go well beyond 10,000 in the city.
4
@nolongeradoc I watched some of the leaked videos by patients and doctors in those hospitals, the number of suspected patients are in hundreds for sure. If you add them up, I think that will go well beyond 10,000 in the city. In one hospital, one medical work stated that at least 40 of medical workers in that hospital are working with symptoms of fever, but they had to because of lack of replacements.
3
Only the PR of China could effectively shut down 35 million travellers; in this instance we should be very grateful for their lack of the democratic politics where the individual is king.
9
@Broman ... you may not believe this, but the government you are talking about is very effective. Shutting down the cities was very unpopular decision in time of the biggest Holliday in China. You have to give the government credit. There were 81 thousand deaths in 2017-18 flu season from preventable disease, preventable, meaning flu vaccine and no one is making news out of that.
5
2 confirmed cases in France, one in my city. I went to a hardware store to buy N100 masks and I bought the second to last box. It almost gave me an epiphany thinking about how media and instantaneous world wide information was making us paranoid. I still bought it, just in case...
31
I think some perspective on this is needed. I was in China during the entire SARS episode. Not only did I survive, but no-one I knew was affected at all. There was a lot of crazy panic - boiling vinegar to clear the air, to the point that vinegar was going for hundreds of yuan a bottle; burning herbs to fumigate rooms, buying up of certain kinds of antibiotics as they were thought to be a preventitive cure, and so on.
I think a lot what is happening now, such as 'sealing off' cities (I suspect they are just closing the train stations of smaller places nearby to Wuhan, so people cannot travel to those places to get back home), is likely a similar over-reaction.
This disease doesn't appear to be spreading quickly among medical staff, which was a key problem in the spread of SARS. It's new year in China; pretty much everything shuts down now anyway.
12
Thank you to The New York Times for your outstanding coverage and continuous update of this evolving story. The commitment, dedication and perseverance of your China corespondents is commendable. With family members in the Wuhan area, NYT is my best option for knowing what is going on in that area; much better than local sources. Please know that your work is critical and greatly appreciated.
170
So all of the non-China confirmed infections have so far occurred within people who have visited Wuhan and travelled abroad. There is no doubt that this will get worse. Assuming one of the criteria for a CDC test is “have you visited Wuhan, or come into contact with anyone who has” may only represent a smaller percentage of people who have made some sort of contact with an infected person whom they did not know personally. This is also flu season, so many people who get sick may just think it is the flu. As time unfolds, I would not be surprised to see these numbers increase significantly.
24
@Ty I bet by end of weekend, there will be 250+ cases minimum in the USA.
But don't worry, Trump has his best minds working on it.
And in between burgers and fries he will bray about fake news, Hillary, pro-life ( a serial cheater who uses HIS equipment as he sees fit...no need to ask....) and witch hunts.
Hey. At least we have a wall.
14
We are on our own here regarding this disease. The WHO admitted that it is concerned with economic damage to China, not putting the health and lives of people worldwide as highest priority. Trump is either asleep at wheel or is pulling another Obama (Ebola) by refusing to impose a travel ban. No one can trust statistics coming from China which are surely understating the incidence of the disease.
So, lacking both information and a government that acts with our health as its first priority, we must do what we can to protect ourselves.
1) Do not fly, not even domestically. Planes pack you in like sardines and intentionally recirculate the air inside during flight.
2) Avoid mixing with large numbers of people.
3) Stock up on food now to reduce the number of grocery store visits if the disease spreads here. Later, do necessary shopping at off hours to avoid larger number of other shoppers.
4) Get a supply of face masks now before they disappear.
5) Do not visit West Coast major city areas, especially San Francisco, LA, and Seattle as these are major ports of entry for people traveling from China. If you must fly domestically, then especially don't book connections through West Coast international airports like SFO, LAX, and SEA since they are where incoming travelers from China will be changing to their connecting domestic flights.
6) Avoid all tourist attractions.
7) Don't stay in hotels, especially major hotels that cater to international tourists.
36
@Errol
You forgot a few precautions:
1) Don't drive and never get in a car. 1.25 million people per year die from car crashes worldwide. That's an even bigger number than the total cases in the US of this new disease (2).
2) Don't go outside-ever. Almost one hundred US citizens die every year from bee stings. And don't live on a farm. There are several US deaths EVERY year from cow kicks.
3) Don't cook or use electricity, to prevent the possibility of deadly fires.
4) Don't ever let anyone in or out of your house. Flu kills 650,000 people per year, and flu comes from people. And you know, some doctors work for actual money! so you know that's all they care about. We are on our own here.
107
@Errol The CDC was actually right about Ebola. They said it was difficult to spread unless you came into contact with copious amounts of bodily fluid from an infected person and that it couldn't be spread by casual contact. They turned out to be absolutely correct. That didn't stop some folks from getting hysterical about it. We should listen to what our public health authorities are saying and try to keep calm unless and until we have reason to believe otherwise.
46
@Linda LOL. Everyone panic. Apparently that is the order of the day.
6
Times have changed from 2003 SARS. However unfortunately there are also things that are still equally bad if not worse. Coverups in the early phase, propaganda communication with lack of transparency.
With the development of internet though, Mandarin speaking people with local connections could get information of fast deteriorating situation on the ground by the day. It’s almost a joke to see the official numbers disclosed of those infected and demised. Videos and front line doctor comments being spread suggest adding two 0s behind could be an underestimation. Not enough supply of clinical PPE even masks or gloves at the hospitals in Wuhan. Some doctors and patients in the locked down cities are on the verge of breakdown.
WHO does not think this qualifies as pandemic or global emergency. China is so big and the spreading is fast from province to province. But you know, it is one country - not international. I’m not good with politics but I do know with the globalisation of this age, no major country could stay out of yet.
10
@Crown You ask: Why is it (the Coronavirus) a big deal when the flu kills many more? Well the statistic that you cite for US flu deaths, 61,200 for 42.9 million sick, is .14 of one percent .
However the early numbers for the Coronavirus , cited in the WSJ, are 25 fatalities out of 830 ill, or 3% of the infected. So initially this new virus is killing at 21 times the rate that the US flu did in the 2018-2019 season. And there is no vaccination available at this time to slow it down or weaken its impact (like flu vaccinations here in the States). And we are not sure what happens when Coronavirus reaches those the elderly, young and those compromised by other illnesses.
This fatality rate may change when care is given earlier. But based on the article, Wuhan is not prepared for this and the hospitals are already full.
Perhaps the world will rush supplies. They should. Or perhaps China will take a breather from imprisoning its ethic minorities. Instead of participating in mandatory re-education programs, they will send the minorities to surgical mask factories.
In the meantime, “Go, Wuhan!” from the government's cheerleaders may encourage the populace. Ironically, the citizens of Wuhan have nowhere to go. But no matter the politics, lets hope the rest of the world lends a hand. We are all in this together.
23
@Bill Cullen, Author China is where our PPE was made for our federal research lab. Most of global production capacity for PPE and vaccines and reagents and test kits and pharmaceuticals is in China. They should not need outside logistics assistance. Hospitals running short means things are breaking down due to panic.
7
"Chinese health officials reported on Friday that there had been 26 deaths from the outbreak and 830 cases of the coronavirus, a sharp increase."
26 deaths => 35 million residents locked down
Does this not strike others as odd? China is notorious about not being truthful about their internal affairs. I'm wondering if the actual death toll/infected cases is several orders of magnitude greater.
185
@Will Daniels The reported cases are only those confirmed, which means a positive reverse transcriptase real time polymerase chain reaction test. Take one look at the mass of desperate people seeking treatment and you know immediately that most patients are not getting tested with an expensive and technically demanding test for the simple reason it would be impossible. So the reported number of cases is merely the lowest possible case count.
16
@Will Daniels It’s not like 35 millions people are carrying virus. It’s when you don’t know who has the virus, you tell them stay where they are so virus don’t spread around. Is this really so hard to understand?
8
@Will Daniels It's only 26 deaths because they have 35 million residents locked down. You have the cause and effect backwards.
Without the largescale quarantine, the death toll would no doubt be much higher right now.
5
We must expect a bigly humanitarian disaster in China. Could end up looking like a Morgan Freeman movie. Fear for those stricken in China. Anything could befall them and we would never be the wiser.
3
So when is Trump going to announce a "travel ban" to protect him from infectious diseases that arise in China? Sealing up our borders seems to be his gut reaction to everything else.
11
@KJ
In this case, sealing the borders as soon as possible would be a sensible move. No one knows how bad CV will get. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
5
@Nancy Robertson
Have you noticed how many countries are now afflicted?
1
"some residents complained they were not able to get the treatment they needed"
There IS NO specific treatment for this virus (if you can't breathe, you can get oxygen, if you can't drink, you can get IV fluids - supportive care only) . Tests to diagnose the infection have to be performed by the CDC AFTER state dept of public health and CDC determine that there's a high enough probability of the disease to warrant testing. You're not going to get an answer quickly even if you are tested. The test is for epidemiologic purposes, NOT to help the patient, because there is no specific treatment for the infection. It will be bad for us all if many concerned people with flu-like illnesses overwhelm doctors' offices and hospitals.
55
@semaj II
Let's unpack "some residents complained they were not able to get the treatment they needed":
Some residents were not about to get oxygen, IV fluids, or other palliative care that was necessary to keep their airways viable and hearts pumping. I suppose they feared for their lives.
5
@semaj II Not a flu like disease. Coronoviruses cause pneumonia quickly.
@semaj II Not true. The patient's test here in Washington was sent directly to the CDC, not to the state first. CDC ran it immediately and the result was available the very next day. The test is for the patient and only secondarily for epidemiologic purposes. Check your facts before posting. Please don't spread misinformation!
1
Mortality rates, while important, aren’t the only consideration in a new outbreak. Survivors who have to spend weeks in the hospital or many days in intensive care before discharge consume large amounts of care. It appears hospitals are already taxed in and about Wuhan. And people generally aren’t hospitalized just for fever and a cough. They have to have serious problems like respiratory distress, shock, or underlying illnesses that place them at significant risk.
For now we have to trust the Chinese government and their public health system for most of the facts. But even in the most advanced countries, data lags events. And in rapidly expanding epidemics, things can escalate in a matter of days. Interestingly, Google has been able to correlate certain searches with the incidence of flu in a community. Perhaps the surveillance state and associated AI being established in China can brought to bear. I’ve little doubt they’re looking at that, but they are less likely to share those methods.
We also have to hope the mortality rates are low, most infected individuals don’t need hospital care, and contagiousness can be managed with simple measures. It’s also a reminder that there are no shortcuts to having a robust and adequate public health system. It’s very hard to spin one up in an emergency.
15
I should add that it matters whether the mortality from this new coronavirus is primarily among the very old, the very young, and the infirm, or if it is just as likely to strike down those who were previously healthy.
5
@Michael Tyndall, not if you're old, young, or infirm it doesn't.
3
@ondelette
I certainly didn’t mean to disregard the effects of this new coronavirus on the the very young, the old, or the infirm. Obviously, any extra mortality due to this new coronavirus is tragic and worth preventing. But it’s worth stating that even common respiratory viral illnesses, i.e.'colds,' can be dangerous in the elderly and infirm. That’s why seasonal flu shots are recommended. Instead, my point is that it matters a lot to public health if this new virus equally endangers folks in the prime of life.
2
As Wuhan citizens, we now only see information like desperate doctors, lack of food, medical devices for hospitals. We try our best to raise money for resources, but we don't know how the money will be used and if they will be deployed properly. I just wish those patients in the hospital can receive the best treatment but not another waiting for death.
28
There is no treatment so unfortunately, “waiting for death” is the only option. Fortunately, thus far most deaths were in elderly patients with already compromised health, and at least 30 people fully recovered.
1
@Jason There may not be a cure, but the supportive care one can receive in a hospital - oxygen and IV fluids - can help one survive while the immune system is fighting the virus. Let's not be so morbid!
2
The CDC says of 63 patients under investigation in the US, 11 have tested negative. How many have tested positive?
13
@Sherry Two have tested positive.
10
@Kerry Night
Yes; and the other 50 patients under investigation?
2
@Sherry
"Yes; and the other 50 patients under investigation?"
I'll bet any amount of money that the number in the US is already FAR greater than 50. Just as it will be in many other countries.
As clinical suspicion - and public anxiety - rises, so will the numbers 'under investigation'
It's the number of PROVEN cases that matters.
4
So for 26 people die from this new coronavirus. But according to CDC's estimate that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died from the flu in the US alone. So why is this new coronavirus a big deal?
26
@Crown - Its only a big deal because its new and scientists don't know what to expect. Will it simply turn out to be similar to a bad flu virus or will it somehow morph into something sci-fi like and take out large numbers of otherwise healthy folks?
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It’s POTENTIALLY a big deal if it turns out to be sufficiently contagious and with sufficient morbidity that it replicates something like the Spanish flu of a hundred years ago. That infected roughly a third of the world’s population and killed 20-50 million of all ages. The essential trick is to catch a potential pandemic early enough to control its spread. Once it’s loose and widely distributed, you mostly just watch and deal with the consequences.
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Good point on the Spanish Flu as many people have no knowledge of it and certainly would not believe the number of deaths.
It can and will happen again. Hopefully it will not be this time.
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One of my fears is that China is covering up the extent of this new virus. One of my friends living in Taiwan says that the number of people affected by the virus and the number of people that have died in China is way more than the numbers reported by the Chinese government. The Chinese government as usual cannot be trusted to give the truth.
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@Jerome apparently there have been thousands of deaths due to the virus and the Chinese are obstructing the true extent of this disaster
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@Jerome What is your point besides degrading Chinese government? Does it matter to you whether there are 500 or 50,000 people infected? The government is doing everything it can even quarantines the entire city. Had it not done so, there would be much more people infected in US and Canada.
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@Jerome - And your friend in Taiwan knows this how? Are they directly speaking to people in Wuhan?
What government can be trusted? Less than two weeks ago, our own government reported that no soldiers were harmed in a missile attack. Our own government is still lying claiming they just had headaches which is why they were all transported to hospitals for treatment. Has our own government accurately reported how many families were separated at the border or how many children are living in cages like Tyson chickens?
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so it's not just old people who are at risk. good to know.
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The youngest victim was 36 so not just old people
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Do we know the ages of the people that have died?
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The youngest was 36 but most were fairly old
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According to Chinese media, they were in there 70s. They did publish exact ages for all the victims, but I don’t remember the exact numbers.
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Don"t know if was in NYT or Guardian, but I have seen breakdown of disclosed fatalities to do date and ages were in 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s. 70s and 80s, with higher numbers at older ages.
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NYTs: please cover all CDC press briefings live. And thank you for keeping us informed.
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@Dorothy You can go to the Centers for Disease Control yourself at CDC.Gov. I learned while reading their report that the initial victims were the vendors at the market.
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The disgusting conditions at the market where rats, bats, and cats were chopped up on the the bare floor speaks to a need for our species to move beyond our toxic reliance on animal flesh. Notice that the deadliest and least treatable outbreaks (swine flu, avian flu, coronavirus) come from consumption of dead animals?
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News accounts I have read point the finger at a SEAFOOD MARKET, though I have also read virus originated with snakes.
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@ellienyc Per Chinese news sources, that wet market sold more than seafood.
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@CP - Well, we could all just stock up on American Romaine lettuce and take our chances.
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From the map it appears that everything is contained just in time.
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Planning a visit to China. Wondering if it’s safe to eat Street food, considering the exotic animals being consumed. How is anyone to know what’s being offered. I’ve seen travelogues where everyone goes yummy yummy sitting on tiny stools in narrow streets enjoying the food.
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In general it’s safe on condition that the street food is fully cooked. Consumption of exotic ‘meat’ is actually uncommon. It depends on the upbringing. Many people I know are uncomfortable with organs and blood, let alone wild animals. Personally I only ate fully cooked lean meat when I was a child, discarding skin and fats or anything that looks like unclean. For example, when I have steamed stuffed buns, I toss out the stuffing unless it’s home made or veggies. That said, better ask a local guide what is included. There are a variety of vegetarian food as well, some of which are local tidbits.
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You should rethink visiting China at this time. It is a closed society and much of the new we get has been scrubbed by the Government. The info we are getting now, restricting travel for 35mm people, means it’s much worse than initially reported and probably much worse than they are telling us now.
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@Jerry Davenport - I love the term "exotic" animals. Look up the definition of the word and one finds that Chinook Salmon would be an exotic animal in Europe and bison would be an exotic animal in the middle east. And where I grew up in the midwest, most everything they eat in Alabama seems "exotic" even though by definition it is local good eatin'.
Chinese mainlanders consider cheese to be exotic. Bruce Lee could not understand Americans' fascination with dairy and my local Asian market is almost completely empty of dairy. Meanwhile, the other markets in the area have a cheese counter right up front with at least 50 different kinds but not a single tub of gochujang paste in the house.
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Could the US with its fragmented private health care and starved public health systems handle such an outbreak any better? Will the Times follow up with an article reassuring the public that we're safe despite the president's $68 million budget cut (9%) to the Center for Disease Control's immunization and respiratory disease control programs as partial payment to add $20 billion to the Pentagon's war-making slush fund?
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@Henry
Sexual Transmitted Infection ( used to be called STD ) are in epidemic for past several years. The highest incident rate state wise for chlamydia was in Alaska, gonorrhea in Mississippi and syphilis in Nevada. The highest rate for all three are in Washington D.C. according to CDC M&M report 2018.
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@Henry Whatever. Our Russian asset loves weakening our country by any means necessary.
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@SK
“Epidemic.” Right. Like the opioid epidemic, or the suicide epidemic, or the vaping epidemic.
No, a true epidemic is the exponential transmission of an infectious disease in a short period of time. The West African Ebola outbreak a few years ago had epidemic potential after multiple Americans were infected, but our “fragmented private health care” indeed contained the problem.
A better analogy is the HIV epidemic. However, it wasn’t our health care system that failed. In fact, precisely because the health care system wasn’t controlled by the homophobic Reagan administration, mainstream gay activists were able to work with sympathetic healthcare professionals at local hospitals in San Francisco and New York to do what the government wouldn’t: develop a new protocol from the ground up. But they could only do so much in a country that was already sick with homophobia, and facing opposition from the radical Stonewall “gay liberation” activists and academic luminaries like Foucault who propagated the lie that HIV was a socially constructed conservative bogeyman created to force gays to adopt “heteronormative” lifestyles.
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It’s quite funny, one of the episodes on the Explained series (on Netflix) talked of possible pandemic outbreak and a very probable cause would be something just like this panning out - beginning in a meat market, the animal to human virus spread. Viruses (such as swine and bird flu) spread like wildfire because although they may be tamed within the wild/animal species, once they have made human contact, it is a whole new virus our bodies have not yet seen, hence the lack of immunity we have for it.
https://www.netflix.com/title/80216752?s=i&trkid=13747225
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Netflix also just recently released “Pandemic”
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This is honestly getting scary, and this isn't some fear tactics nonsense. The biggest fear I have is human to human transmission, and the huge migration of people worldwide right now for the Chinese New Year. It doesn't take much for a contagious virus to spread, especially how we are mostly centered in cities and around air travel nowadays. A case was just confirmed in Chicago, and it was from a woman who traveled to Wuhan back to Chicago via air.
While WHO hasn't declared a pandemic yet, but it's time for the airlines to be ready to start cancelling flights to and from China, put all of Asia on on a watch list, and offer free waivers and refunds for any cancellation out of concern to prevent the spreading of a virus. The health of world needs to be considered over profits. Sadly this personally impacts me since I have plans to go to Taipei next month for the Lantern Festival, and I am very concerned stepping foot in Asia if this continues to spread.
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@Patrick - You would also need to include halting all container ships entering U.S ports from China and that would crash our economy almost overnight.
The first American case is just up the road from me. The guy only went to a doctor because he saw on the news that Wuhan had a virus, he had just flown back, and started feeling a little ill when he landed. They moved him to a small city hospital (not the major research hospitals in Seattle) and the only reason he is in the hospital is for observation and just to be safe. Otherwise, he has not gotten sick enough to even go to the doctor, he just did so because of a news report. He says he never went to these meat markets.
So far, it appears as though some old, sickly Chinese people got this virus and have died. I have yet to read of some strapping soccer player in his/her 20's dying. Everyone in the media is trying to make us very afraid so we keep clicking.
I have had HIV for 20 years now and have a rather low T-cell count. This virus has now hit Sea-Tac and the guy would have had at least a 2 hour drive back to where he lived and has come into contact with quite a few people. Am I at all concerned? Not even. But I will never again buy lettuce in the stores. I only grow my own now. And our local mass shooting? At a bus stop where I have stood many a night to catch the bus home. This virus will not kill me. Nor my kids who live in the city where the American case is hospitalized.
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@Patrick
We should fear the things which threaten us, not the things which sound scary. The Climate Catastrophe comes to mind as a much more dangerous situation, as does the return of fascism, the end of nuclear arms treaties between rivals, or the blind embrace of dystopian technological discoveries.
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@Patrick Don’t go. There are videos of packed hospitals, wall to wall, with corpses in corridors. There are videos of people dropping on floors and sidewalks, hardly even getting their hands out in front of them. This is nothing to mess around with.
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Could you keep us updated on the locations of potential cases in the US, please?
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The coronavirus appears to be shutting down Chinese New Year. Imagine the economic impact in the USA if we cancelled Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's and the Super Bowl. How will a similar hit to the Chinese economy impact us? It might trigger a wave of debt defaults. Suspect that our big banks will be hurt and they will pass that on to us. I mean, that's what they do.
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Maybe they should watch "Contagion" instead of running around saying "Remain calm. All is well!"
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If not mistaken, mentioned are 24 writers and contributors to this article. The information must be taken very seriously by decision makers. Pleased to see that some of the unsung heroes are not only residing in China's healthcare services, but in some of your news redaction offices as well. No speculation, no blame game, very low level of sensation seeking, searching for solutions, putting the various pieces together; in one word: congratulations!
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Everyone was so supportive of the Chinese government when they locked down Wuhan. They ignored everything they were taught in school because it made them feel safer.
And now over thirty million people are locked down, with no information and no end in sight. The lockdown is indefinite, and some are already saying they expect the outbreak to last for months.
How long till they lock down cities like Hong Kong? And when will Americans realize they should be ashamed for supporting China's destruction of human rights and abandonment of their people? Travel bans don't even work!
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@Andrew Roberts
While I have mixed feelings about China's capacity to use it's authoritarian system to address this outbreak with a widespread travel ban, this may be an exactly correct reponse to what they are seeing on the ground there. Isolation containment is a primary and necessary medical response and their reaction is that tenent of infectious disease epidemiology writ large.
I actually have real concern about how western societies would handle a virulent contagion and wonder whether governments cojuld get whole populations to engege in the necessary behavior to stop the spread of a pandemic. We can't even get people to vaccinate their children against horrible preventable diseases or evacuate in the face of devastating hurricanes.
Asia is ground zero for the origination of many of these outbreaks. It could be a public health emergency if huge swathes of infected populations were permitted to travel. We will see this move slower because of this travel ban and that time delay is important in other countries ability to respond to cases that do show up outside China. For China, travel bans may well be needed in this case right now and I am reluctantly supportive of this aspect of their response. What concerns me is that their officials conduct all their other efforts with utmost efficiency, competency and success. That point is where the world's concerns need lie at the moment.
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Yeah we are now kinda desperate, now it seems that so few people are supporting us outside WH. Thank you so much for standing out for us!!
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@Name
Travel bans are ineffective. Vox went through the evidence recently, which shows that at best, travel restrictions delay the spread of infection by a week or so. There is some evidence which may suggest that the subsequent outbreak could be worse (lots of caveats to that one). Infectious disease experts are largely against China's lockdown order partly because there are so many other, less restrictive measures which could be taken first, like handing out face masks and hand sanitizer. They also say it could make things worse by cutting off external aid, confusing and scaring people, and cloistering a large number of people in a very small area. And remember that the virus has already escaped containment.
It's not just that it's inhumane to do a lockdown without consent, knowledge, or expectation of relief—it's that it doesn't even work. We need to be alarmed by the virus and we need to keep an eye on it, but its danger lies in its potential, not in what we've actually seen so far.
And again, travel restrictions are ineffective.
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I just want to say I really appreciate the hard work that has gone into translating a lot of the coverage of this outbreak into Chinese. However I hope as this situation continues to develop the Times may find away to also translate this live updating Developing-Story Thread. It would be immensely helpful for the readers of the Times who are living in or have loved ones in affected areas (who may not speak English). We need all the info we can get.
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@Liu ShenSheng
If they need to hire more translators, they could always shift resources from their race and gender coverage. There were two opinion pieces by transpersons this past week alone, and I’m not sure readers have much of an appetite for black veganism or “queer” culinary cultures. (I’m not making it up; those were actual articles.)
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Given the speed with which China went from locking down Wuhan (pop. 11 million) to adding cities with 24 million additional people, there’s a lot that they’re not telling the rest of the world (or their own citizens.) The central government appears to have failed to grasp the severity of the virus and the rapidity of its spread and is now desperate to contain that which has already widely broken out. Just a thought, but how about a permanent ban on ingestion of bats? They’re perennial carriers of all sorts of diseases and thought to be the source of this coronavirus.
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@Katie
All sorts of animals are eaten there, even dogs. I hadn't heard about bats, but suspect it will be some time before the source of the virus is confirmed.
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@Katie Where did you acquire your information about bats being the source of coronavirus? The only persons that should be spreading any sort of information regarding the found object of any disease is the World Health Organization and Center for Disease Control. Do you work for either and are acting as a public agent either one of these organization?
As far as I can see, the Chinese seem to be reacting properly to what may turn out to be a pandemic. Creating bumper zones is standard practice.
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@Susannah You seem a bit confrontational. Is everything okay?
Since this outbreak is in China, I hope, in your position of assumed authority, that you’ll grant the Chinese and their disease control entities the right to speak about the virus (in addition to the CDC and the WHO.)
My information about bats came from reading social media posts from people in Wuhan and from reading other news sites referencing said bats. You are correct that no authoritative statement has been made as to source of transmission. However, bats are the only animals listed by the WHO on its website as the possible “animal reservoir” for the Coronavirus SARS. The current outbreak is being widely compared to SARS and I don’t really see a problem with halting the consumption of bats until we know for sure. However, if you want to go ahead with SOP on the bat front, you be you.
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