Over 30k+ people a year on average die from the flu. Why is this virus causing more alarm? Even the SARs epidemic is estimated to have killed only 800 people worldwide.
9
Why is the New York Times sending a journalist to the epicenter of the virus outbreak? I’m honestly curious if you think he is somehow immune.
7
What price globalisation now? And is it a price worth paying? All those stuffy international flights, all those crowded airports.
Are we sure that the western world - the WHO and the rest of us - will we react as quickly and effectively as the Chinese have in cancelling flights and shutting down almost all public transportation?
2
The CDC doesn't seem to think that the 2019 flu vaccine was too effective.
The overall effectiveness of last flu season's vaccine was only 29% because it didn't protect against a flu virus that appeared later in the season, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
That means that 70% of the people who got the flu vaccine in 2019 didn't benefit from it.
If you think that this means that it wasn't worth getting a flu vaccine then you agree with the CDC.
We can't argue with the figures.
The flu vaccine of 2019 didn't work and, in my opinion as a physician, should not have been used by medically risky populations and anyone who has had any sort of reaction to the vaccine in the past.
2
The world cannot believe the same Chinese leaders who regularly hide truth if it serves their purposes. This must be treated as a health emergency.
6
The articles I’ve read about this disease so far do not emphasize even the most basic ways to prevent transmission of a respiratory virus: please cover your mouth with your elbow or a tissue if you have to cough or sneeze. Yes, wash your hands thoroughly and often. And wearing a mask may help protect you and the others around you. But please cover your mouth with your elbow or a tissue (not with your hands) if you need to cough or sneeze. One uncovered sneeze could contaminate a number of other people in a car, bus, train, plane or office. Someone sneezing or coughing in their hands and then touching an armrest, stationary pole or grocery store cashier touchscreen could contaminate them instantly. The experts say people can be contagious even before symptoms appear. Yet why are there no signs in all public conveyances and public places urging people to cover their mouth with their elbow or a tissue if they have to cough or sneeze? Free packets of tissues and hand sanitizers could be placed in all transportation stations and public places and in planes, trains and buses. I’d like to see the disease experts weigh in on how effective such a public health campaign might be.
14
Mix a dense overpopulation of people with the consumption of all sorts of live, exotic wild animals, and we can expect this sort of thing to happen on a fairly regular basis. This is what happens when you don't refrigerate meat—the animal and virus is kept alive and quickly consumed. In Asia they often don't have ice or refrigeration, and so people prefer their animals alive and fresh no matter how cruel the practice is. I've seen pictures of 6-8 dogs crammed into a wire cage that fit on the back of a motorcyle....off to the live meat market.
141
@Mike C. The leaders of China are like the Republicans, they hide the truth and ignore the problem until they have a pandemic. The same thing is happening in the US with the lack of gun control. We have gun shot victims day in and day out.
52
@Mike C.
Some news agencies are reporting, and I'm unclear how accurate this is, that this virus comes from bats. The market serves bat soup. Another story said that it was from snakes and bats.
15
@Mike C. Not disputing your comment. But industrial farming in our own country can be pretty cruel to the animals too, even if the consumers don't see it. Also it's precisely my childhood memory of seeing live animals being killed in traditional markets in 1980's Taiwan that continually reminds me to eat less meat.
70
This seems to be so far away. When really it's not. This is not to be underestimated. It's necessary to properly refrigerate meat otherwise the virus is kept alive and the chance of consuming it unwittingly is high. This seems to be so far away. When really it's not. This is not to be underestimated. It's necessary to properly refrigerate meat otherwise the virus is kept alive and the chance of consuming it unwittingly is high.
4
@Gregory A. I'm not so sure that either refrigeration of meat or failure to refrigerate it has any deleterious effect on most viruses.
Viruses are merely strands of DNA or RNA encapsulated inside a protein container. There is an ongoing ancient debate among biologists, molecular biologists, biochemists and chemists about whether or not viruses should even be regarded as life forms.
The way viruses are "killed" in meat is to heat it to a sufficiently high temperature that the protein capsule and its contained DNA or RNA are irreversibly "denatured" ; i.e. the amino acids, their hydrogen bonds and the protein folds are compromised. Because most viruses need their protein capsules to stick to and penetrate cell walls, this heating and damage to the protein container makes it impossible for the virus particle to function, rendering it harmless -- "dead". Most proteins can be reliably denatured at a temperature of 60 degrees C (140 F) or higher. DNA, RNA and the information they carry are destroyed at a somewhat higher temperature.
Refrigeration doesn't kill viruses. Heat is the key.
19
I suspect tighter restrictions for travel to and from China and within China, are too little, too late. I pray the CDC is able to find an antibiotic that is effective against the corona-virus.
1
It seems there are cases in Saudi Arabia - nursing staff. I think WHO needs to change their position - we have a global problem.
3
I send my blessing to everyone in Wuhan, sick or not, old or young, sad or happy. May you find a way to persevere through this epidemic, and I hope all of your family members do too.
8
The word "barbarian" springs to mind when I learned what is sold at these filthy live animal markets for consumption.
I am disgusted and angry beyond belief.
The Chinese government is totally responsible for this coronavirus because they turn a blind eye to these venues.
I can't describe how I feel about the human suffering and the misery caged live animals endure because a Chinese person wants to consume a bat infected civet cat, which is how the first SARS virus started.
Doctors don't know which animal was involved in this one.
No one holds the Chinese accountable.
No one.
7
@American2020 Your comment really hits the nail on the head. This is what makes America so special, so great, what sets her apart from the rest of the world. The barbarians in the world have no compunction about inflicting suffering or killing.They know what they are doing, hence they are barbarians. No so Americans. For example, fire and death rained from the skies upon Iraq, thousands upon thousands dead, but our hands are clean. If you didn't see it first hand and up close, it didn't really happen. God bless America!
7
The rising death toll in China due to the Wuhan Corona viris (WCV) is alarming. All the China has locked down travel out of Wuhan and surrounding areas more prevention needs to be done for people trapped in the Wuhan epicenter as hospitals are overwhelmed and the sick are not promptly cared for.
4
Ah, the wonderful West where meat comes neatly packaged from supermarkets, no animals having been harmed. Neatly arranged in uniform packets, impossible to map to the anatomy of any living creature, never a tuft of fur or, God forbid, an eye or a face to be seen. The wonderful enlightened West.
The uncivilized Chinese, can you believe it, eat animals that they have seen alive! Yes, alive! They actually kill living animals to eat, not content with packaged meats produced by supermarkets. The cruelty, the barbarity! One commenter yesterday appropriately suggested that some of China's live market vendors should be executed in public, their well deserved punishment televised in high def.
Seems that many an enlightened NY Times reader is no less racist than, well, just about anyone else.
19
@The F.A.D. I see your point but is it cool to eat trafficked wild animals or dogs and cats? The animals being consumed are not just chickens, pigs cows etc. They are often exotic and endangered animals not meant for dinner. So save the sarcasm for somebody else. I ain't buying it.
14
Are there any non-Chinese authorities allowed to monitor what’s going on? The Chinese government has a history of not being forthcoming about these things and even trying to cover up information.
In a situation like this, where global health could be out at risk, it seems like officials more focused on transparency and putting health first, above the pride of the Chinese Communist Party, should be in charge.
9
"Chris Buckley, our chief China correspondent, headed to Wuhan from Beijing to cover the outbreak. He is sending live dispatches from his trip." While I am the first person to acknowledge the importance of investigative journalism, there is no means by which your correspondent could work with contacts outside of the area given that little is known about the etiological agent at this stage? Why do I feel like this is a bad plot tangent in an 'outbreak' fiction scenario...
6
"While the headlines are alarming, health experts cautioned that it was too early to gauge the severity of the outbreak. "
Yeah, like...the headlines of this very article. Drop the panic.
4
I think the media is reporting this virus in a way that is causing unnecessary fear. They are not giving enough context. The people who have died so far were older and already ill. I feel this should be emphasized more - rather than focusing so much on every new case and where it is spreading. I also think they should be focusing a lot more of the death rate compared to the flu as well as the fact that the reported cases are only from those who were sick enough to go to the hospital in the first place. There could be 1000s of people who had the virus and just thought it was a cold so never went to a doctor - which would bring the death rate down even further and make the virus even less serious. I understand it could mutate and turn into something much more dangerous and think it is good that governments are monitoring it. However, as it is right now, I think the media is causing a lot of unnecessary fear by sensationalizing it and not adding more context into the reporting.
15
I'm totally grossed out that live animals like bats, snakes, koalas, turtles, and dogs are being sold in the Wuhan markets for food.
Hoping there is a vaccine/spray/pill to handle this virus ASAP before other cities are put into quarantine.
6
"So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children, a group that's particularly vulnerable to the flu and its complications.7 days ago"
Not sure we're focusing on the right disease here.
12
@David Konerding When did the media ever pass up a good chance to spread panic?
3
@David Konerding Have you researched the virus? Have you done any in-depth reading about how this virus jumps from animal to human?
I'd bet not.
4
Is this virus a world-wide health emergency? I don't know. In the past I would never have questioned a decision by the WHO, but that was before I knew that China was now successfully blocking Taiwan's full participation in the organization, because the island nation does not acquiesce to be ruled by the dictatorial CCP, which claims it is a 'renegade province'. What is more important, people's health, or the CCP agenda? The WHO, a UN organization, seems to think the latter. So, again, I ask, is this virus a world-wide health emergency?
9
“There have been millions and millions of Chinese-Americans but zero American-Chinese” said Chinese author Eric Liu of Harvard. The epidemic would be a good reason to address a health risk and obtain fair treatment for Americans instead of a 1 way street completely favoring Chinese while Chinese completely blocks Americans from entry into China except on terms grotesquely favorable to China
7
Considering there had been 2484 passengers flight directly from Wuhan to NYC during 12/30/2019 to 1/20/2020, more traveled other major Chinese cities to transfer, there is a good chance that we already have someone infected here in New York City.
Although most people don’t die from it, further spreading could give the virus more chance to replicate and mutate. Please wear face masks in crowded places to protect yourself and the community.
7
First denied then panicked. China needs to get it’s health act together.
3
On top of everything, how so very cruel are these market owners having various animals in cages, treated so brutally, by heartless cruel indecent greedy money worshipping people. Oh, and did I mention cruel heartless horrible indecent and brutal people that treat captured poor animals so horridly?
3
I read up on this virus. Genetic sequencing found it to be almost the same virus that caused a SARS outbreak in about 2002, that also spread out of China. That outbreak alarmed people because leaking plumbing and the fact the virus is shed in feces caused many people in Hong Kong patient 1's building to become infected, but this wasn't initially realized and it caused panic.
But this virus is in the middle of jumping from an animal host, and not actually very infectious under normal circumstances. It normally spreads slowly and is easily contained by scrupulous public health measures.
In the early 2000s, the virus actually spread to Toronto, Canada, which ended up pretty much quarantined, no travel into or out of the city, but only about 30 people there ever got sick, many of them those who treated the initial patient. It never spread elsewhere in North America.
There isn't going to be an epidemic.
But, to be sure, I wouldn't want to take a plane out of China or Hong Kong right now. Small danger of that, I've taken a plane anywhere four times in my 63 years of life.
1
It's clear there are no reliable figures on number of ill individuals and number of deaths. The Chinese government has not learned the most important lessons from the SARS and MERS outbreaks -- the importance of a defined and well-funded public health infrastructure throughout the nation, but particularly focused on large cities. China is fortunate to have many dedicated excellent scientists, but it's also clear they do not have a way to influence decision making and the planning of strategies for containment and care. It is horrible to think of the poor Chinese citizens who wait for hours to be examined and diagnosed only to be sent away with platitudes and without proper testing. Shameful way to treat their citizens, actually.
10
@Michele - As compared to the U.S. where the poor are just tossed out on the streets without any medical.
The Washingtonian who has this virus was sent to Providence Regional Hospital in Everett, Washington which gets a 2.8 star rating online. Google it and read about people waiting hours to be seen and the chaos of where he is at. I'm sure people in China are feeling sorry for us.
3
@tom harrison Take any ole opportunity to insert a slightly off target political statement Tom? Actually you are preaching to the choir on that issue. However, patients flooding the medical system because of anxiety about an outbreak resulting in long waits would happen in any country experiencing a mystery illness. What is sickening is that they are placated and sent away despite enduring the wait. And when it happens here you know, people sue if there are negative consequences. Try that in China. My main point was, China has not committed to building a robust public health infrastructure. The USA does have one despite all our other shortcomings in health care.
1
Any mass-death event of humans is much more likely from a immune resistant pathogen than from climate change. If the Chinese give a number of fatalities you probably need to square it to get the truth. Governments tend to lie, but China pretty much takes the prize.
16
In China and other countries too, consumption of "exotic" wildlife, freshly killed, often uncooked, has a long tradition. Today we read about snakes and bamboo rats as possible carriers of this current virus and both consumed especially by those who believe doing so has health benefits. Since this practice has gone on since ancient times, outbreaks like this have likely occurred previously. This one is dramatized by instant communication and world-wide jet travel. The beliefs about the benefits of consuming such creatures will persist, assuring the periodic return of widespread illnesses like this in the future.
5
As Prince Phillip said,
If it has four legs and is not a chair, has wings and is not an aeroplane, or swims and is not a submarine, the Cantonese will eat it. (at a 1986 World Wildlife Fund meeting)
5
There is next to no data so far to determine whether this is serious or overblown. Every year, flu is more deadly and nobody cares, because it is not reported that prominently.
What we need to know is how many people are actually infected, but are non-symptomatic. For that we need effective high-throughput detection methods, which are currently not yet available. If 100% of infected individuals become symptomatic and 3% of those die, then, yes, this would be worrisome, provided transmissability is also high. For instance, for chickenpox transmissability is nearly 100%, i.e. someone comes into contact with an infected person, that person get's sick, too. On the other hand, if transmissability is low, the virus will burn itself out using proper isolation methods. Incubation period is another issue, then the infectious period, i.e. if the virus is only infectious while a person is also symptomatic, it makes it feasible to contain it through easy detection.
And so on. At the moment, this looks less serious than the regular flu, but could change, of course.
That's why the WHO did not declare an emergency. At the moment, the emergency is in people's (and writers) heads.
10
The PRC is a lying and dishonest autocratic regime. I certainly hope the WHO is not relying on the statistics provided by the PRC. If it says 19 people have died, the real number is probably closer to 100.
4
The "æ" sound is unique to American English so the actual pronunciation of Wuhan should be closer to Wu Ha-en. In which the "U" sounds more like the U in German such as in "Universität". And "Ha" is closer to the one in "Hannah" or Han solo. The vowel in "en" is close to the one in "emm..".
The numbers for confirmed cases released by local authorities only reflect a fraction of actual ones some of them are very dire. Since censorship comes with a finite reaction time, there is still valuable transient information such as photos/videos which can be spotted on social media, from which one can deduce there is significant lack of hospital beds. Many patients who has virus pneumonia couldn't be "confirmed" owing to the lack of beds and testing kits and are therefore turned back to stay at home (self-isolation) and are therefore not counted.
1
The UN and its WHO serve Chinese political interests, not the health interests of the world, especially not the highly developed world.
We need to take charge of our own health protection and immediately institute an absolute ban from entry to the US of all non-US citizens coming from China or who have been in China in the prior 30 days. Where is Trump? Why is he dithering?
5
@Errol - Your travel ban makes no sense. The guy here in Washington who has it is a U.S. citizen who had been traveling in Wuhan but never went to the market. Furthermore, a true travel ban would also require halting every container ship from entering the Puget Sound to bring you everything that fills your store, as in everything.
That last measles outbreak in New York killed more people than this virus has but did you quarantine all Jews? Jerusalem had an even bigger outbreak. Did you call for a travel ban from Jerusalem?
Meanwhile, last night, there was a mass shooting at a bus stop that I have stood at night after night for many, many years but I wasn't riding the bus and wasn't on that street corner last night. I laugh at this virus. It is a poser.
4
Reporting should include investigation into the public health practices in China, particularly in view of the fact that many concerning viral contagions have originated there (SARS, bird flu, etc...) and are associated with animal reservoirs in contact with humans.
3
The W.H.O., the same people who lied about vaping, says not to worry about the Wuhan coronavirus. Why should I believe them? Likewise for the C.D.C.
3
@Gary K.
Vaping wasn't the issue. It was counterfeit THC cartridges.
2
@Gary K.
Exactly! Once again the UN demonstrates that its agencies have no integrity, deserve no trust, and are the political tools of China and certain other nations.
The WHO pulled an Obama. The WHO admitted that it refused to declare an international health emergency because of its concern about the interests of Chinese. Remember when Obama did similarly refusing to impose a travel ban because he said it would cause economic loss to infected African nations, thus placing their economic interests ahead of protecting Americans health and lives. Now the WHO is doing the same.
The US should immediately ban entry to the US of all non-US citizens who are either coming from China or have been in China within the prior 30 days. Returning Americans who have been to China should be examined upon arrival, and again at 5 days and 10 days. During that time they should be required to self-quarantine. Returning Americans should be responsible, not be like the selfish, callous, know-it-all NYC doctor who came back from treating Ebola patients then went to restaurants and even bowling while he was trusted to self-quarantine...then he came down with Ebola.
1
Suspected cases being reported from all over now.
Five persons in quarantine in Glasgow, Scotland - another quarantined in Belfast N. Ireland. Test results awaited. All of them Chinese with h/o recent travel to the Wuhan area.
Most of these suspected cases will turn out to be something else, common colds, simple respiratory viruses - parainfluenza and the like. But, this sort of global panic phase always occurs.
It has a name here - 'WN co-V' (novel coronavirus from Wuhan). If you don't understand something, give it pseudoscientific name. Makes everyone feel more in control.
2
While it'd be too much to expect from our Administration and our mainstream media that view China as our adversary, we -as well as the rest of the international community- ought to express our hope that this viral outbreak will have minimal impact on the Chinese people and others that may get infected.
The Chinese government seems to take extraordinary measures to prevent the spread of this virus, and we should all be cognizant that it's doing so. Enough with the snark and sniping...and let us all wish the best of outcome to China. Hopefully, our own medical experts in contagious disease (CDC et al) will offer assistance and expertise. These are the right things to do...it's the American way.
14
Well said and I agree!
2
"After two days of deliberations, an emergency committee convened by the World Health Organization decided not to declare a global health emergency — but planned to meet again within 10 days, acknowledging the “urgency” of the situation."
You'd think that of all organizations, the WHO would understand how quickly a pandemic can and does occur. Waiting 10 days to meet again and reevaluate this outbreak is negligence at best, condemning more to death at worst.
4
@Mike
No, this is exactly the right decision. What else would you suggest should be done now? We do not have anything near the information we need to determine how serious (or not) this is. At the moment, this is just a respiratory virus that doesn't even seem to spread that fast.
The danger of the common flu virus to mutate and cause a new pandemic of a highly virulent and lethal strain like the Spanish flu is much higher every year. Yet we don't have a global emergency every winter.
The WHO only issued that statement, because the news have pushed this up to global panic level. Otherwise they may not even have issued a statement yet.
4
This is another deadly virus outbreak that comes from consuming wild animals that have not been monitored or refrigerated (see: Ebola).
Sometimes government regulations can be useful. js
5
I don't think that the Chinese have put millions of people under quarantine and restricted the travel of millions more in order to be good global citizens by containing this novel virus. Instead they very well may have a big problem on their hands that the government doesn't want to reveal because it thinks that it would reflect badly on China. I think that they have under-reported the number of cases and deaths that they are dealing with, just as they underreported SARS, and underreport other health problems, such as HIV in China.
8
A human pandemic and economic collapse would be good for the other creatures on the planet, and in fact actually may buy humans a few more years on the planet. Otherwise, a little pandemic will look quaint in comparison to the global affects of climate change. I guess we want to have the maximum number of people on the planet when ecological collapse comes so as to maximize the suffering. A very Christian thing to do, maximize the suffering.
3
@Chris
There are 4 times, perhaps 8 times, as many humans living now than the planet can reasonably sustain.
So, yes, a global pandemic that kills 90% of humans on the planet would be the best that can happen to the other species that inhabit this Earth.
I just pity the remaining 10% who have to dispose of all the bodies in the absence of the technology we have gotten so used to. Because that technology, i.e. the know-how, will also largely disappear when the people who had that know-how are dead.
We would not be back in the stone age, but probably close to 1920s technology levels - without the organically grown know-how to organize a society under those conditions.
3
Lots of thing can result in the cessation of travel for a period of time: weather conditions, e.g.
I applaud the Chinese for using this as a preventative measure, esp. as we are unsure as to what is going on.
Never touch your face/eyes, nose with your unwashed hands, get enough sleep and exercise, stay hydrated. Do the masks actually help? They might prevent air-borne droplets from getting into various "cavities." Don't eat snake meat (BTW can the virus be destroyed by cooking?
3
(Would be great to get a pronunciation guide to the names and words being used repeatedly in this story about the virus. I have heard many news broadcasters mispronounce Wuhan as "woo-han" whereas the actual name sounds like "woo-hun.")
2
@Mari - Well, the pronunciation will change between speakers. Does anyone living in Boston pronounce the name of that city correctly? Or New Orleans?
Mayor Pete, Vice President Pence, and I all grew up within an hour of each other but all sound a bit different. Mike is clearly south of Indianapolis.
I have lots and lots of Samoan neighbors and they pronounce the country totally differently than we do. We way - suhMOuh - they say - SAMowah
1
The most recent information I got from people inside China is that Wuhan reached its capacity to diagnose and treat new patients. The number of confirmed cases is still relatively low, but this is mainly because there is a lack of detection kit for the virus in local hospitals. There are probably 10 times more suspected patients than what has been confirmed. Many people (in the number of thousands at least) from Wuhan escaped to Shanghai just before and after the closeoff of the city. Some probably went for treatment since Wuhan hospitals could only take new patients with severe symptoms. Those with less severe symptoms were sent to home for self isolation. There are still patients who walk on the street without any protection. It is much worse than what has been reported so far!
25
@John In the nearby cities that just announced close off, each has maybe over a hundred highly suspected cases, but they could not announce the cases due to lack of detection kit, besides that the right to announce the confirmed cases is reserved for the public health office at the provincial level.
8
Sars was first reported - by text message - as a virulent form of pneumonia spreading among hospital staff in Guangdong. A few weeks later, after the media finally acknowledged it, the situation was claimed to be under control, and news of its spread disappeared from official media, until the Hong Kong outbreak forced its way in from the international press. Only then was any action taken, at least officially, on the mainland.
This case appears to be different. There are no reports of widespread infection of medical staff, the cause was announced right away, and travel restrictions are being imposed, though likely too late and rather pointless now.
I'd also like to point out that the population figure quoted for Wuhan is, like all such figures mentioned in the international media, not for the urban area itself but for the much larger municipality of the same name, which is a bigger area that would include many surrounding towns and villages in the total population figure quoted.
2
Question: Were a pandemic to hit, which country would you rather be in? Which country do you think would handle the pandemic most effectively and protect the most people?
A) a country with a universal healthcare system of some sort that covers the whole population, and labor laws that ensure paid sick leave to all workers.
-OR-
B) a country with a non-universal, for-profit healthcare system where accessing healthcare is expensive at best or financially inaccessible/unaffordable at worst for the majority of the population, coupled with weak labor laws where workers are not entitled to any paid sick leave at all.
I choose A.
75
@A.
I was a “paying guest” of socialized medicine last year when I fell very ill on a trip in Europe (my care wasn’t free since I was foreign and my US insurance ultimately paid, but I was privy to what passed for healthcare in a county hospital there). I now choose (B). Our healthcare system seems horrible until you’ve experienced the alternative.
18
@A.
I choose the U.S. because when a threat like this comes knocking on OUR doors, we do what we need to do and get the job DONE. After the crisis is over, then we can argue over the who pays for what details. Perhaps you missed the statements in the articles that referred to medical supply shortages? It appears their health system wasn't prepared in spit of the fact that their types of outbreaks are more common than not in China.
6
@A. As a new contractor with a not-yet accrued bank of 20 leave days a year (which includes vacation and sick), I have to come to work sick or not get paid. So make sure the hand sanitizer is ready.
5
Do they really think those cheesy paper or cloth masks will hold back a VIRUS?
Not.
16
Any type of mask will help prevent infection since it spreads via the air and via contact with infected surfaces. Obviously some masks are better than others and you still have to be careful about surfaces -- face mask or not. It is this type of lazy thinking that helps to spread airborne diseases. A "Why bother" mentality spreads these diseases further across a population.
67
@Dave Ron Blane Most of them wear the surgical masks, following the instruction of CDC. Some wear cloth masks because the surgical masks are almost sold in the market. Stop being sarcastic.
20
No, but the masks allow people to think they are doing something preventative.
1
Our government in NZ doesn't seem too worried as it is only elderly people with underlying health problems that are dying.
3
Chinese lie about epidemic but Trump trusts them to trade fairly? Chinese action closing city borders can be believed but not Chinese promises, and I lived there 10 years. Dictatorship has its advantages; in USA, 1 tiny special interest group could hold the nation hostage claiming some hypothetical discrimination
4
So, good article and research... but...what was the purpose of linking to a video of bamboo rats being beaten and skinned for eating? Not even a warning to the squeamish? Really, really bad form.
2
Nearly twenty million people have been imprisoned in their cities by the dictatorial and authoritarian Chinese government. And everyone's so happy because they can finally feel safe, thousands of miles away from the people who don't know when they can leave their cities again. Or even if.
4
@Andrew Roberts
Managing the spread of a previously unknown virus that is transmitted from human to human by limiting travel is a well-established and effective disease containment strategy. It is a responsible action. To label it otherwise is ill-informed.
4
@Concerned
An article published today in Vox shows that the only thing travel bans are good at is delaying the spread of an infection, and only by a few days. I don't think I'm allowed to post a link, but here's the title: "The evidence on travel bans for diseases like corona virus is clear: They don't work." They interviewed doctors, scientists, other health experts, politicians, and historians, and all the data says that this will, at best, delay the spread of the disease by maybe five days. Twenty million people, locked into their city with no warning, given no information, told they're going to be there indefinitely… it's just as inept and corrupt a move as all their others.
@Andrew Roberts - But 5 days can be a lot of time for a research team.
1
Given what I’ve seen from humans over the course of my long life, I dare say the world would be better off without them.
4
@Jim Anderson
You took the words right out of my mouth - well, off my keyboard. I was thinking about posting just this for the last couple of hours. What with the state of our world, right now.
Total extinction, though? How about 95% of humans, with the remainder having a good understanding about how to do better next time?
1
You’re much more likely to be infected (and die, although unlikely) from the seasonal (usual) influenza, and there’s a vaccine for that. Even when the vaccine isn’t that effective, it’s still your best guarantee to avoid getting the infection besides the usual hand hygiene.
1
It's very hard to know the exact situation in Wuhan. The official number largely is just a reference to what minimally happened. Not everyone who felt sick seek medical attention, and most hospitals and private clinics do not have test kits that detect the virus. And it's in the middle of flu season and in the middle of the travelling season. Estimation reported from the UK using epidemiological model is just, an estimation (by a model, mostly based on unrealistic assumptions and incomplete data, and usually not that accurate).
It seems that the virus is not as virulent as SARS or MERS. Most people who died were seniors with existing chronic ailments, who would as well have fought an uphill battle if it was a common flu. The local government posted a sweeping travel ban on a megacity of 11-million population overnight with literally no advanced notice could mean either the situation is dire or the government unnecessarily overreaching . The latter is likely given that the central government has pressured the officials in Wuhan for a swift resolution.
45
the reported medical conditions of the dead people could be modified to prevent panic. Depends upon how much you trust the people doing the reporting.
12
@sunny
Why would they want to prevent a panic? People are really easy to control when they're scared. Governments, in general, don't want to prevent panic. They want to prevent rebellion.
3
@Minya Konka
You sound so much more certain than the public health authorities. Do you work in public health? My understanding is one of the dangers of a new virus in a novel population is that is that it can mutate, becoming more deadly etc. when a virus jumps species it is hard to predict what will happen. That’s why there have been concerns over the years of a deadly bird flu emerging. Perhaps we might all err on the side of caution while scientists and public health officials figure it out?
8
With so many people in the world living in such crowded conditions, the ease of travel all over the world, and the weakening of our antibiotic defenses, the danger from a deadly virus or resistant bacteria increases.
We need to plan to be able to contain outbreaks like this virus. Banning travel and large public gatherings seem like good first steps.
33
@M Davis you are right about antibiotic resistance being a critical threat. That said, correction here, antibiotics are useless against viral infections. Viruses replicate in a completely different way from bacteria and are technically not a living organism since they require other organisms to reproduce.
8
@M Davis
Let's also put a camera in your house, monitor your location with an electronic tag, and deny you the ability to see your family.
That's what Singapore did in response to SARS.
No matter how many times people are warned, they are still perfectly happy giving up their rights for a feeling of safety (even if it's illusory).
6
@M Davis
People living in cities usually have easier access to medical facilities than people living in rural areas.
My American friend living in N.C. not an old man and with no particular health problems that I knew of,died of the flu while bunking in a friend's house in the area of Aseheville. It does happen here. People often die with pneumonia post flu. but the new vaccines-- amazing.
3
The Wuhan city government has a problem that is faced by hundreds of municipal governments in China -- incompetence. China has some of the greatest scientists in the field, and they were quick to identify the virus, share its genetic information with authorities around the world and advise the city bureaucracy. But the Wuhan party cadres were overwhelmed by the need to create false sense of security during the most important festival of the year. It wasn't until Dr. Zhong Nanshan, a prominent epidemiologist, publicly declared the virus contagious on national TV, some 20 days after rumors of epidemic emerged on social media, that the public finally realized the serverity of the matter and started to take preventive actions. I can only imagine things would be much better had it happened in Shanghai or Beijing where government is much more experienced. But these major cities probably don't have a unregulated, illegal wild animal market that was the source of the disaster in the first place.
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@Alex
The virus was not announced to be contagious because there was not enough evidence to confirm that until very recently. Once it was confirmed, the authorities promptly released the information.
2
Even if that is the case, that they announced the human-to-human transmission capability promptly, there is little doubt the government prioritized social stability above people’s health. Even now the media continues to downplay the severity. The official numbers simply doesn't conform to what people are seeing on the streets, in their community hospitals. Adding to that there came the news this morning that the Hubei Party branch held a New Year gala that was probably attended by hundreds, including all the main leaders of the local party branch, who seem completely oblivious of the crisis under their nose.
6
@Alex
Trump is also downplaying it, having said
"it's totally under control". He only meant
within the US, I think, but still irresponsible.
1
It has been 36 hours since the Chinese government has upgraded the cases that have tested positive and the number of fatalities. They seem to be turning away people at ER for either lack of beds or testing kits and their ability to protect staff.
The closing off of the city and public gather places like cinemas gives one the impression that the spread of the virus has already eclipsed their ability to contain considering a two week incubation period.
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@Sailorgirl
It gives me the impression that the spread of the virus has allowed a dictatorial government to strip rights from its citizens with ease and international support.
China quickly went from downplaying this emergency to banning travel for almost 20 million citizens in 3 cities. Let's hope it's a severe overreaction vs a realization that the situation is far from under control.
127
The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.
35
@Midwest Josh The US should ban travel from China so the CDC and others can determine the threat of this virus.
17
@Midwest Josh
It's not an overreaction if their intent is to restrict what little freedoms are left. They started off downplaying it because they wanted to seem competent, not to prevent a panic or help people see their families on holiday. They quickly ratcheted up their responses after it was already out of the city. It's suspicious, but it's hugely popular because people can pretend to be safe again.
4
For another insight on this situation, read the other article in today’s NY Times by Yanzhong Huang, a Chinese person who is now involved in global health matters
thank you Chris Buckley!
2
Having abandoned Deng Xiaoping's democracy with Chinese characteristics aka a collective term- limited collective leadership model Xi Jinping can act and react with impunity and speed to this health crisis.
1
What is the over/under by the Chinese authorities reporting the true numbers of infected and dead? A factor of ten? Twenty?
3
China is marching in the right direction to stop the spread of the Wuhan Corona Virus (WCV) outside the epicenter but will need a lot more help from the rest of the world. Americans who think they can help resolve the crisis and stem the tide of the spread within the epicenter should be heard and I have begun that process of reaching out to Chinese Americans with an interest in the public health in China, to join hands to do what we can not just because the millions of people of Wuhan are our fellow human beings and brothers and sisters of the world's family because the contagion of severe acute respiratory syndrome could land on our shores and it is in everyone's interest to adopt a multi pronged approach to eradicate the WCV.
I invite anyone who is interested in finding solutions with the urgency of now to come to Louisville, KY at their cost, to hear what ready solutions I have and to share their thoughts on what they might have. Consider this as an emergency for all of humanity and an opportunity in this hour of need for rapid deployment of solutions with a strong scientific backing that will be applicable to eradication of WCV.
3
@Girish Kotwal. Wouldn't teleconferencing be faster and cheaper? Of course, we don't even know your credentials.
1
@Barry Short Yes I as I said I have reached out by telephone but I will not go to Wuhan and want any other American to go to Wuhan until the WCV is contained, but after brain storming with a Chinese American in Boston who knows his motherland better than me for sure, I have a different perspective that will shape a final suggestion to the Chinese Health Officials which will be transmitted via the Chinese Embassy in Washington DC.
As far as my credentials I am just a private American who has researched viruses and wants to be a part of a Chinese solution to currently and mainly a Chinese problem which is gradually spreading. I do not have deep pockets and I am not running for public office or trying to promote tepid snake oil solutions. I want to elicit a collective humanitarian response supported by sound science to the current epidemic.
2
@Girish Kotwal - I appreciate your concern and effort. My neighbor is from China and is a doctor now studying to be a U.S. doctor. I got pretty sick last year and my one doctor was clueless. He considered having my shoulder x-rayed because I was obviously in lots of pain. Talking to her in the yard about my symptoms, she said, "sounds like a problem with either your C-5 or C-6 pressing against the root nerve". No MRI, no exam, no catscan, no tests, just listening to my symptoms. Next, I went to my neurology clinic at the hospital where she is in school and saw their top Ph.D. After an hour exam, he thought it might be my c-5 or c-6 and sent me for an MRI and a couple of weeks later for a 90 minute test of being electrocuted at low doses while wired up. Seven weeks later came the results. Yup, the Chinese doctor (student) was right but it took my American doctors 3 months and several tests to catch up to her. I think China can handle this.
Next time I get sick, I'm going to bang on her door because she is better than her American professors:)
To prevent further outbreaks: don;t eat badgers, bats or bamboo rats.
6
When will the idea that eating exotic animals is healthy be completely debunked everywhere?
2
@Kai Great point. I intend to stop as soon as I finish bamboo rat I have in Big a Green Egg right now.
1
@Idiolect - Your definition of exotic is inaccurate. If you live in Sweden, Chinook Salmon would be considered an exotic animal. And its quite healthy.
Meanwhile, Bamboo Rats would be considered local good eatin' like possum in the south because they live in the region.
From Merriam-Webster
Definition of exotic (Entry 1 of 2)
1: introduced from another country : not native to the place where found
Great coverage by the Times. Chris Buckley is an excellent and courageous journalist. His coverage seems to indicate that the Chinese authorities are finally treating the crisis with seriousness it deserves. It could not happen at a worst time as hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling all over the world for the Lunar New Year day. It seems that the lethality of coronavirus seems not as severe as some feared. As with SARS, the silver lining of this outbreak could be improving China and the world’s response to public health crisis.
Living in Los Angeles, I fear that large-scale homelessness, wide-spread drug abuse, and fragile health care system is a recipe for major public health crisis. If there is similar outbreak of contagious diseases in the United States, could we respond in an effective way when so much of the vulnerable population are beyond the reach of the health care system and authorities? This concern should force the authorities to address the homeless problem and get people into housing. We no longer allow people to smoke in bars and restaurants for the fear of second-hand smoke, but half a million Americans are homeless and without any basic access to sanitary living conditions. This is a disaster waiting to happen.
11
@UC Graduate - I have been homeless before both in L.A. and in Seattle. Both cities do a great job of providing medical care to the homeless. Mental healthcare? No. But flu shots are free just about everywhere, mobile units travel the streets at night providing non-emergency care, and even the foodbank I went to today offers "wound and foot treatment" twice a month. And if anyone is acutely ill, every ER in the country opens its doors. I wouldn't worry too much about this.
I would rather be sick on the streets of LA than in rural Alabama living in a dilapidated home.
The death toll is probably much higher. Since every person in China has a smart phone, the truth will come out, sooner or later. And, when it does, it won't be pretty.
10
@Mike agreed
It seems common practice the underreporting when exists a crisis of this magnitude, most probably to avoid spreading panic. We really do not know the real scope of this breakout, but I, as a Mexican national, this morning I heard through a news oulet, that there is one person infected in the state of Tamaulipas, Mexico, in the northeast. That state adjoins with the state of Texas. This individual is a Chinese citizen, he is a sort of professor and works for Mexico's Polytechnic in that state, an institution of high regard in the country, and he had recently travelled to China. The news outlet did not provide many specifics or I missed them, but this news oulet is considered as one of the most trustworthy in Mexico.
5
Something does not add up. Why are three cities closed down with a population of millions of people, ifthis virus has caused only 17 deaths since December. We have more deaths from a regular flu that that.
4
@Tanya SpitzNagel. Regular flu is a known and somewhat predictable disease. We know it will pretty much die out by summer. We have no such information about this new virus. That's why it's a big deal.
7
I think Nature is telling us something that news writers and government officials don't want to address, and people, in general, don't want to hear: stop multiplying. If populations continue growing (and mismanaging the planet), more outbreaks of viruses will carry on indiscriminately causing havoc and deaths of great proportions. Viruses multiply and mutate faster than any scientist can come up with methods to combat them. Facemasks? What a laugh!
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@Impatient2020 - Actually, China did that with "one man, one woman, one child". Imagine what their country would be like today if all of those parents had 3-7 children instead of one to two? The people of China did the world a great service with this sacrifice.
There have been reports of a case in Glasgow, at the Queen Elizabeth hospital (other cases in Edinburgh also). It appears the patient travelled from Wuhan in the last 14 days and has respiratory problems now and is under quarantine.
I wondered, in the USA, if a patient has no medical insurance, but are a public health risk, who pays for the forced quarantine?
7
@Reasonable
I'm not sure Americans can get their heads around the concept of universal, comprehensive healthcare entirely free at the point of use. Free hospitals, free health centres, rehab, psychiatry, cancer treatment. neonatal, OB/GYN, emergency and trauma, cheap subsidised meds and so on. Nothing to pay - apart from your taxes. As much as you need...
But, boy, do Americans expend a lot of enegy pouring contempt, ridicule and criticism on such free healthcare systems.
3
How many are sickened or eventually die from diseases spread by airlines not bringing 100% fresh air into the cabin ?
Last summer. my friend, visiting from the east coast, fell sick within a day. Then I became ill also. It took weeks before I was back to good health. How many others become ill also ?
Compare the deaths from diseases caused by re breathing diseased air, to the 737 max victims. I have a feeling the deaths from illnesses, caused by greedy airline ceo policies, has been far greater and will continue to rack up fatalities while the airlines rack up profits.
They need regulation. This is on top of their callous stuffing us into smaller and smaller seats that don't recline more than an inch or two, even on a 12 hour flight.
@Getreal
You cannot breath 'fresh air' in a plane at more than 5000ft. It contains insufficient oxygen to sustain life.
Modern passenger airliners cannot carry adequate supplies of 'clean', sea level air except on the shortest of flights. Cabin air is always a compromise involving recirculation, filtration and oxygenation.
It's true that airlines increasingly skimp on cabin air quality - but, 'fresh' it's never been.
1
@nolongeradoc I think it is higher than 5000 ft. At least I hope so. Maybe you were thinking in metric terms? Cheers.
@nolongeradoc
Those giant jet engines need much more air than us.
Like a supercharger compressing air into a car engine to give it performance at high altitudes, the speed of the plane can scoop in the fresh air. If more than 500 mph is needed to do the job, then a supercharger should be used to make sure passengers are able to breath fresh air.
Folks here drive to 12,000 ft and still breath.
The older jet liners had fresh air.!!!
When they changed to re breathing, you could count on red eyes and worse.
I understand the doctors treatment saying that do not worry and go home.
Acutally, there is hundreds of doctors contaminated by sick patients. As the virus pass on by air, it's better to stay or be trated at home than going to the hospital.
Roughly 18 million people are now quarantined inside China's mainland, an epic experiment in infection control that dwarfs anything in history.
Lets hope it works to contain the virus and is quickly lifted. I'm praying that those on lockdown will come through it peacefully and in good health.
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If what the Chinese officials are saying is true, then so far this virus is generally only fatal to older, already ill people. In that regard, it's not any more serious than a typical flu season. The worrisome part is not knowing the origins and potential for it to become more deadly.
3
@Fred Rodgers - From what I have gleaned about the Washington case, the guy started feeling ill as soon as he got off of the plane at SeaTac and reached out to his doctor after seeing the report of the illness where he had just been. They transported him to a local area small hospital (not even the major research ones in Seattle) and he has been kept there for observation only since he is not sick enough to stay in a hospital. He is in his 30's, not 89 and already sickly. No one here seems all that concerned but they are just playing it safe and keeping him at the hospital.
"Some residents worry the government is underreporting cases"
"Chinese state media plays down the crisis."
No government is above this kind of news distortion. But it is a matter of how much trust you have in government and how much it lies. Authoritarian regimes lie more than democracies.
1
Ebola virus isn't contagious in incubation period, this coronavirus appears is. Considering the fact that large number of doctors and nurses infected quickly even with all the protection on, the speed of spreading of virus and so much unknown about it, any responsible government has to take drastic measure to halt it out of an abundance of caution. Crawling out underneath of stone to bash Chinese government to score political points at this moment seems beyond the pale.
5
China has been in the news lately for developing non -traditional vaccines lately. I wonder if it has anything to do with this?
China is always ill prepared for communicable diseases like this one, and the also current, unresolved African Swine Fever that has killed hundreds of millions of Chinese hogs. China is over-and-densely populated with huge human and animal populations living in close proximity to one another. Animal vectors are always close by, such as at the outdoor Wuhan food market where snake/bat viruses quite handy for infecting people. We'll see now if the CCCP really has the control of their population and public health that this latest disease challenges.
2
I wish that people who were sick here in the US would stay home if possible and, if not possible, would wear face masks.
For the last six weeks at work, many of my colleagues have been working with dreadful head colds and with the flu. No one takes sick leave. No one wears masks.
Why, I wonder, has wearing a mask while sick not become routine here? Studies have shown that masks do reduce the amount of virus sneezed and coughed out by those who are ill. There seems to be a desire to appear "cool" and "unflappable" that makes Americans adverse to wearing masks.
When we had bad wildfires and I wore a mask to reduce exposure to the irritating smoke, quite a few people implied I was "over-reacting". Well, no. I just didn't want to have a burning nose and throat that would be more susceptible to viral illness because they were dry and inflamed!
https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/who-should-wear-a-mask-during-flu-season/
Maybe someone needs to create "designer" masks so Americans will be willing to wear them!
2
1/23/2020, 1205 EST
The count is now 600 diagnosed and reported, an increase of about 50. Either this is inaccurate, or the “problem” has already begun to resolve itself.
This is another example of why meat consumption by humans is, at the very least, questionable. On the most extreme end: deadly.
4
Don't go to the hospital or doctor if you have a cold or a flu-like illness unless you're really sick. There's no accessible test to tell you whether you have the new coronavirus - specimens have to be sent to the CDC, which will take them only if certain criteria are met. You won't get an answer anytime soon. There's no specific treatment so you won't be missing out on anything.
The Chinese state media may or may not be "playing down the crisis" but an American media eager to slam China whenever it can can certainly be relied on to overplay it as part of the NYT admitted existential "systems competition" it feels America is in with China. In this competition everything appears to be fodder for pushing the preferred US narrative with China as dystopian nightmare. Reading the coverage and the comments you can almost see the eagerness for things to get worse - in China.Oh well, if your in a battle for hearts and minds your going to break a few eggs and exaggerate and mistate a bit. Isn't that how we got into the last 4 wars. Carry on.
2
The fear is real. Not just because of a virus. When a city shut down, people who do hard labor work or live on an unsteady income are impacted more than others. Without transportation, healthy people cannot return to work. On top of that, the cost of food and medical treatment inflates due to increase in demands and shortage of supply.
In China, the nationwide household registration system (Hukou) utilizes ubiquitous residence permit to control nationals’ mobility. Without a hukou, rural migrants or poor villagers have limited access to the city’s healthcare system or proper treatment. They might be less aware of the seriousness of the outbreak or the preventive measures promoted online.
“Despite claims that services like WeChat are ubiquitous, internet penetration in China is only around 60 percent. Resources such as WeChat accounts or ID cards are sometimes pooled between families, with parents making use of children’s identities.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/22/wuhan-coronavirus-quarantine-china-will-hit-poor-hardest/?fbclid=IwAR3oV0CsoLDydLQ1fyyMQSQMJmA1iM-xvtvWj_7JnO9-ykbZtLz41C0zGf4
We mustn't forget these invisible people in a society even if they are minorities.
4
Every country could learn something that China is facing and doing right now -a fast spread, changing, and deadly virus in a large populous area. China in fact is in a better position since they faced SARS, a similar virus, before and eventually won the battle.
It is hard to image that if our government shut down all the transportation and freeway due to a deadly virus during Christmas or Thanksgiving holidays.
I can sympathize the people during Lunar New Year and cannot go ack home, and also the Chinee government who has a tough job in hand right after a tough trade negotiation with us.
11
@Usok There will be pictures of the effect of the disease and there will be bodies. I'm thinking of the Hong Kong Freedom Riots.
If this is a fast spreading and mutating virus, there will be many deaths outside China. If this happens, the numbers inside China will be very large.
Does the wearing of such pores facial masks really help from contracting the new coronavirus virus?
Isn't that comparable to using chicken wire to keep dust out?
6
@Marge Keller No, not comparable. N95 masks are effective in keeping virus-carrying droplets and dusts from being inhaled. A chicken-wire fence would not stop dust, but if the dust is spread by being stuck on a baseball, then the fence is effective. Similarly, the virus themselves are microscopic, but they usually float in air attached on droplets, which the mask stops.
8
@Chris
@EmilyH
Thank you very much for sharing this important information. I was not attempting to be snarky, merely asking a question out of ignorance.
I appreciate your comments.
5
China will put the health of their economy ahead of the health of their population.They will obfuscate data if it would in any way affect their exports,or travel industry.They took a huge hit to the economy from the SARS epidemic and are on track to suffer that fate again as people distrust their findings and panic because there is so little hard science.If they want respect on the world stage they need to allow some of their excellent scientists to take the lead so that the etiology of the disease can be determined so prevention can kick in.They are not only trying to embargo information from their own people but also from the rest of the world who are concerned and are at risk.
17
The Wuhan city government has a problem that is faced by hundreds of municipal governments in China -- incompetence. China has some of the greatest scientists in the field, and they were quick to identify the virus, share its genetic information with authorities around the world and advise the city bureaucracy. But the Wuhan party cadres were overwhelmed by the need to create false sense of security during the most important festival of the year. It wasn't until Dr. Zhong Nanshan, a prominent epidemiologist, publicly declared the virus contagious on national TV, some 20 days after rumors of epidemic emerged on social media, that the public finally realized the serverity of the matter and started to take preventive actions. I can only imagine things would be much better had it happened in Shanghai or Beijing where government is much more experienced. But these major cities probably don't have a unregulated, illegal wild animal market that was the source of the disaster in the first place.
5
It's unsettling to see how rapidly this virus has spread across continents. I would hope that our U.S. public health authorities would urge anyone who has been near Wuhan in the past month or so to monitor themselves and notify someone if they develop symptoms. Airport screening may not be helpful if it takes two weeks or longer for symptoms to appear. I feel for the residents of Wuhan who are trapped inside this nightmarish scenario. They must be extremely frightened right now.
17
Excellent coverage from the Times. Based on the science, it appears that the measures taken by Beijing are reasonable. It's only human for people affected to complain. Certainly, state media is missing an opportunity to educate people on the situation, but no one in China pays any attention to the state media. Xi is an intelligent leader; my guess is that after the dust settles, local officials will be ordered to crack down on live markets. Many people will complain, but it's clear that the central government does not want to risk a pandemic. Having twice spent spring festival with families in China, I know how disappointing the travel restrictions must be. I wish all of these families good health in the new year.
27
@ShenBowen
It's only human for people to complain. I mean come on, all the government did was abruptly announce that they wouldn't be able to leave their home for foreseeable future. Your faith that the Chinese government is going to be reasonable is misplaced, and your faith that the restrictions will be limited in scope is naïve.
@Andrew Roberts: So, Andrew, you think that Beijing should tell the people of Wuhan that it's perfectly okay for them to go outside and risk becoming infected, or spreading the infection? This quarantine is sound public health policy. China's government is repressive and authoritarian; no one would argue with that... but the government's actions in this case are sound and based on science.
It would be bad policy for Beijing to assure people that they can resume activities as usual. Until more is known about this virus, that would be dangerous and irresponsible. Consider what happened following 9/11 when Christie Whitman, head of the EPA, assured New Yorkers that the air around ground zero was safe to breathe; workers at the site became ill and many died. She later apologized for her statements.
There are many conflicting facts coming out of this. The reported cases have not changed for days yet China's response is bordering on massive. Unlike the AvIan Flu of 2013 where China hid the number of cases but the actual patients who were transferred by bus and driven around to avoid the WHO inspectors. Scientists from the UK have estimated at least 4,000 cases given the nature of spread. The cities in China are all massive with millions of people living in close contact. The government response may very well be robust to get ahead of the spread, or to curb a public discordance given the political climate in Hong Kong. Everything I have read about this new Coronavirus it is not considered as virulent as the previous outbreaks. But the nature of a novel virus is it's ability to mutate. Once it mutates into an easily spread and more virulent form it is impossible to contain. The next pandemic is always the concern for the WHO and the CDC so far we haven't gotten that signal yet.
16
All Americans should stop and think about the wisdom of some type of Universal Heathcare - when it comes to addressing an Epidemic. Especially one capable of mutating as it progresses.
Our society is very vulnerable, when so many (whether citizens, visitors, migrants) are without an assurance that if they present themselves with symptoms they will be treated - without the risk of bankruptcy.
Even the Rich cannot protect themselves, if they employ servants who may not have healthcare and who might be traveling on public transportation just to arrive at work.
A society is better prepared for natural disasters and epidemics if it thinks long term and in view of every citizen.
We can do better! But right now we are woefully behind all other advanced nations in taking care of everyone who may happen to be on these shores at the time of an epidemic.
185
@TheraP And we could be more restrictive in immigration during the time of epidemic
11
@TheraP
You know I thought your argument that the rich who run this country might change their minds re universal medical care if they considered that their untreated "servants" might potentially one day bring illness into the homes of the rich was some type of dark comedy than I realized you were serious. All that argument will do is get them to double down on investing in the robot revolution!
3
@TheraP yes, and a bit of sick time to stay home while contagious would also be a big plus!
7
Always appreciate NYT's coverage. However, I think it is time to drop the adjective "mysterious". Firstly, it is not a very scientific term. Then it appears the medical community already have better picture of this coronavirous. Sure, not everything is known and it might be mutating, but the adjective "mysterious" adds an unnecessarily ominous spin to it. The public should be aware and take proper precaution, but it should be based on knowledge and a fear of the "mysterious"
92
Agreed. There's legitimate concern for any emerging disease that mutates and has the potential to be lethal, but the media coverage all around has been just below panic. Media are responsible for the angst I'm already seeing in the public at large. It's irresponsible.
3
typo. *not a fear of the "mysterious"
1
An epidemic like this could be the spark that unleashes pent up resentment against China's authoritarian government. Massive protests could result, especially if people believe the government mishandled the crisis.
6
@Dan Frazier One can hope.
@Dan Frazier
Unfortunately, the government probably has already thought of this and unleash their propaganda machinery to convince the public what a great job it is doing and that the populace should be extremely grateful to the communist party and how much better they are because they live in China.
Could you cover how WHO is dealing with this by buying all the Chinese government propaganda (the official infection &death numbers, for example, is much lower than the estimated ones by scientists), even praising Xi, for the crisis close to a humanitarian disaster in Wuhan? Such a shame.
3
@Wu I don't see any wrongdoing from the WHO side - You can't deny their efforts simply because they praised the Chinese government. Also, I assume you didn't read the original paper from the "scientists"... There is a reason why it's only a reference - I recommend you read the paper, check the model assumptions and then draw your own conclusions regarding the model.
Bless Wuhan. Bless China.
I understand it's an estimation but seems researchers from Imperial College London and Hong Kong University using different methods can at least agree that the real numbers are much higher than the reported ones. Also, a glimpse into some Chinese social medium would assure one that the real number is higher (we can't have reliable source due to strict media regulation): the usually nationalist general public who despise rumors that would hurt national image as "fake news" is discussing how their local authorities are hiding and delaying to report infection numbers. WHO should at least acknowledge the official numbers are suspicious...
Those open air, meat markets have to be totally revamped—ASAP. Get the good doctor from Hong Kong—who traced the origin of SARS and is working on this corona virus—together with his staff, and several more infectious disease specialists to lay out detailed plans for safer open air markets. That’s assuming they’re still really needed for sustenance for lower income Chinese!
5
@SC Osprey Re-writing 7,000 years of civilization will be difficult. The animals are purchased live, so they may be rendered and used in family recipes. No doubt, this type of health issue has been a part of this civilization for all of those years. And, when everybody had to walk everywhere, local diseases did not become pandemics.
I'm waiting for the pictures to come out.
@Mike Difficult?! Yet, the whole premise of the Chinese Communist regime (and every other communist gov't) is to do exactly that - a rapid re-writing of "7,000" years of civilization."
So many euphemisms for the inhumanity of it all "The Great Leap Forward," "The Cultural Revolution", Uighar "Re-education centers"....
My friend in Mexico said they have one and also he referred to it as WARS-- is that only a Mexican name for it or something?
Anyway, obviously the best we can do is what we're hopefully already doing for the flu: wash hands, stay inside if sick, take care of your health in general.
Meanwhile: just wait and see.
3
17 people have died and 570 have been sickened.
Of the 553 people who have contracted the disease and not died, how many are still sick, and how many are over it?
Or to ask another way, how long does it last and if you survive, how do you know when you are over it?
1
I suppose, to prevent such an ecomomic damage in the future, the termination of all the so-called "live-animal markets" across the country would be a cheaper option.
27
"As China grapples with one of its most serious public health crises in years, the ruling Communist Party’s most important news outlets seem oblivious to the emergency."
Communist Capitalism at work. Surprised? Not.
6
The response, or lack of it, in the media is not surprising. The Chinese government response to anything dangerous and important is to avoid providing the facts to the people. Recall that several years ago after a major train crash, a hasty burial of the evidence was authorized to prevent an investigation. Refusal to admitting there is a serious problem is the first step in making it worse. Happy Year of the Rat!!
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@Janet Baker. Yes and no. The USA govt was sending very mixed signals via the CDC when Ebola started coming to the USA via flights from West Africa. It was a very troubling response from the CDC and later on they never owned up to it.
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over 6000 folks have died with the influenza virus this year in the US alone. Are we closing airports and cities to travel? What 17 dead world wide with this strain of cronovirus. To me the world is over hyping its potentancy as a pandemic infectious agent compared to damage the influenza virus is causing world wide. No comparison. IMHO
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@dennis ditullio
I'm not in anyway disciplined in this field, but that won't stop me from offering my understanding.
It's about the timeline, it's about the rapidity of the spread. It's all about the unknown. When it jumps from animal to human, and then human to human, that's a bigger deal for increasing the fear factor.
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@dennis ditullio The regular flu kills old and weak. This virus appears to kill even healthy people, quickly. Hence the "panic."
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@dennis ditullio
At least when it comes to the flu, we can prepare by being vaccinated.
There is no vaccine for this virus. Plus, viruses mutate. And can do so quickly.
It is nonsense to fall back on how many die from the flu, when faced with a potential worldwide epidemic. Of a new virus. Which can spread rapidly around the world. And about which we know very little.
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State media treat this lightly? Entire cities on lockdown? How long will the people tolerate misinformation and deceit?
It must be difficult to live there. Is it a case of ignorance is bliss?
May the virus be stopped in its tracks and spread no more.
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I wonder the different things that humans do to avoid diseases at high population density could be considered evolutionary adaptions. To live at the population densities present in some parts of the world, you need good public transportation and good hygiene. Or it certainly helps.
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