It’s the conservative disease.
1
Racism is a core problem worldwide
Tribe vs Tribe warfare with so big a world population we cannot get away from each other
China may win by long term planning
USA short term planning with a few rich people thinking money wins
$$$ is not food nor shelter just a delusion
War drums beating WWIII will bring a Post Human era
and our earth will evolve again
1
Chinese don’t believe that god made them
Great and will protect them and just in case their handgun will serve as a backup while they teach their children the Bible and claim science is a hoax.
3
Trade with China is slow suicide.
1
The scary part of this isn't China's advance; it's America's retreat. Thanks a lot, Mr. Trump. Demonizing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (Oh, no! A trade agreement!!") was immensely stupid and short-sighted, and the biggest gift that China ever got.
6
Let's not glide over the fact that much of China's rapid and otherwise inexplicable rise can be traced to US corporations VOLUNTARILY turning over US technology, nearly all of which was developed in the public sector, not the private sector, and paid for by US taxpayers.
This is a stupendous years-long betrayal of the American people perpetrated by corporations on a scale that dwarfs even that of US companies that continued to do business in Germany under Hitler. (One US automaker with plants in Nazi Germany even sued the US government for bombing damage to its German factories -- and won!)
3
There is no doubt the US has ceded a lot to the Chinese, our investment in basic R and D has plummeted and our lead in science and technology is at risk. Not surprising, given the anti education bias of the GOP, especially their religious right base, who see science as a threat to 'long held beliefs'. Corporate R and D has always been something of an oxymoron, beancounters have always said "What's the ROI", which with basic research there may not be one (or a huge payout). When GOP types ask about Bell Labs and IBM research and so forth, they immediately tell me about how the private sector 'gets it', etc, what of course they ignore is most of the research places like that did were paid for by Uncle Sam (hince, all you drawling idiots with your "government doesn't do anything", the key technology of the 20th and 21st century was all paid for by uncle sam, the transistor, the laser, fiber optics, nanoization of components, carbon fiber materials, the integrated circuit, the electronic computer, microwave transmission, packet radio (ie wifi), all done on Uncle Sam's dime....same with the pharmaceutical revolution we see, on top of other things.
The Chinese have some inherent flaws that the US should be exploiting but aren't. The Chinese authoritarian culture has a big one, innovation is done by mavericks, by people who jeer at conventional thought, and China spends a lot of time and effort suppressing that.
1
Repeat after me: “Donald Trump is NOT the root nor the major cause of American decline.” Repeat 5,000 times.
The rot of the American soul began in earnest in 1981 with the presidency of Ronald Reagan. To this day, I cannot fathom the charisma of that manifestly shallow man. When the PATCO Air Traffic Controllers went on strike in 1981, Reagan hamhandedly broke the union using military ATCs. In contrast, when the US Postal workers went on an illegal strike in 1970, Nixon re-organized the Post Office as the US Postal Service, made it self funding, and gave postal workers a fair wage (which LBJ and Congress repeatedly refused to do). But Reagan was hailed as a “strong leader” when he busted PATCO. Thus began the demise of American organized labor.
Under Reagan, care of the mentally ill was shifted from hospitals to prisons. The healthcare system was shifted from “non profit” charitable entities to for profit money sucking, profligate, unaccountable fiefdoms that consume 18-20% of GDP (compared to 8-12% in other developed countries). Maintenance of infrastructure was scorned as government waste. While Nixon began the “war on drugs”, under him 2/3 of government spending went for treatment with 1/3 for enforcement. Reagan just said no to treatment, cut spending, and put drug users in jail.
Clinton and Bush-43 continued deindustrialization and reckless deregulation leading to the crisis of 2008.
American moral rot preceded Trump and will not go away when he leaves office.
7
The problem with China is that we are at war with them. Any country that hacks it way through another country's information such as the OPM hack should be considered an act of war. Stealing defense armaments is also an outrage. Would we have allowed Nazi Germany these transgressions with "A Get Out of Hell Free" card? Don't think so. China is a toxic culture we should avoid all contact with.
2
"China is not preordained to supplant or even match the United States as the world’s leading power."
But Mr. Leonhardt then goes on to point out that in the past decade the United States has moved backwards. It is probably true to say that it also wasted the previous decade, dominated as it was by G. W. Bush's presidency and a disastrous, costly and ultimately futile war that sucked up America's attention and resources.
China does not allow itself to become embroiled in foreign wars; it prefers to conserve its energy to achieve more worthwhile and influence enhancing ends.
On the present trajectory, and there is no reason to think that it will not continue, the Unites States will lose the influence in international affairs that is one of the most important underpinning factors in holding on to superpower status.
2
I can't speak for China. But under Trump, the U.S. is acting like a power in decline, grasping for past glories and historic accomplishments while completely ignoring the future. Even the American people, by and large, are following this script, with all of us fighting for a big enough piece of the pie instead of trying to grow the pie.
Even if climate change wasn't real (it certainly is), we should be investing in green energy because that is where there is money to be made - not wasting time with fossil fuels. We should be protecting the quality of our air and water, not giving a green light to polluters. We should be protecting our forests, coasts and wildlife reserves and promoting going outdoors to more Americans so more of us get off the couch and develop a healthier lifestyle, and not drilling and cutting and killing our finite natural resources. We should be investing tax dollars in education and research and development in a wide range of areas, not throwing good money after bad by increasing the budget deficit with corporate tax cuts and more defense spending. We should be strengthening alliances instead of weakening them. We should be strengthening our diplomatic corps instead of weakening it so that our military can catch its breath and not be stretched so thin.
In a couple of weeks, senators will surely acquit Trump and we'll continue on our merry way, the future be damned as long as stocks are up and the rich are richer.
Sad.
3
What do you mean, "semidysfunctional government"? It is fully dysfunctional, verging on terminally ill.
1
The bottom line for the US still is to rid ourselves of the autocratic rot of this grifter president and the GOP.
2
I don’t care if you post this, David – but please watch or read this:
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/events/2019-wriston-lecture-end-computer-age-thiel
“…We're simply not able to compete with China at scale when you have 7 out of 10 of the largest container shipping ports are in China. The largest in the US, Los Angeles, is only number 11…
1
Of course I forwarded this very well written, informative article to my “Trumpy” pal, who of course responded by asking if the NYT looks for less flattering photos of the President on purpose...
1
The republican party is the biggest threat to the American future.
1
Murdoch might as well be a Chinese agent for all his politics and right-wing media empire have achieved to weaken America in all the areas this article mentions – gutting America’s education, science and infrastructure. The ultra-wealthy and their for-profit, publicly-owned corporations all paying next to zero taxes, especially in relation to their income, suck profits and resources from local communities coast to coast.
And Murdoch’s well-oiled propaganda machine Faux, masquerading as vetted news has the very people the ultra-wealthy and mega corporations are victimizing to vote against their socioeconomic interests year after year. They have done so by cunningly framing what is going on in America as a culture war.
This allows them to savagely undermine everything, from consumer protection to the environment to the stock market to make room for ever-increasing profits for the wealthy.
It’s brilliant, and while Murdoch, Trump and Moscow Mitch’s hamstring America for years, decades to come, China is smiling broadly.
Team Right-Wing-Conservative is making it easy for China to win and win. All this winning on China’s part and all this losing on America’s part has momentum.
.
3
I'll be dead before it matters, but Americans better start to learn Mandarin and brush up on The Little Red Book....
1
Trade with xenophobia is slow suicide. But Americans are addicted to cheap goods like a heroin addict. Chinese use the money to fund the greatest military expansion in world history, fund concentration camps, a global spy network.
2
Pretty far down in the comment section which to me is a co-equal branch of the news without ANY mention of human rights. If population decline is a problem, why are they doing such wrong to their Muslims?
Maybe you don’t understand China’s power. Everyone I know realize that we are losing it badly. The real reason is our type of capitalism versus theirs which followed a socialist path to capitalism. Read Branko Milanovic’s “Capitalism, Alone.” You May learn something.
1
We only need to be worried about the future of American power (and I question if American power even matters) if we continue to elect idiots for the presidency who have no intellectual grasp of anything worthwhile, like economics. We might very well elect Trump again because the game is rigged for the GOP through the Electoral College and voter suppression. So, while rural America destroys America, urban China will allow it to grow and become the greatest nation in the world.
1
While China has lifted millions of people from poverty through "reform and opening the door policy" over the past 4 decades, it has regressed on its treatment of ethnic policy. One must not just look at the dazzling skyscrapers and find satisfaction with it, he also must look at dungeons, concentration camps with Chinese style where China holds millions of innocent Uyghurs, Kazakhs are suffering just because they are Non-Han.... This is NOT progress, that is regression; This is NOT development, that tragedy for Uyghurs, Kazaks and also for more than Billion Han people....
This China's crime against humanity, this blood and this stain will not be washed away forever. If I were a Han Chinese, I would feel guilty, very guilty.
What Han Chinese to Uyghurs and Kazaks today, what Japanese invaders to Chinese in 1930's....Sooner or later, criminal Chinese officials would be shamed globally.
World prefers an open, welcoming, free and prosperous America with shortcomings to racist, narrow-minded, cruel and selfish communist thugs led materialistically perfectly well developed China
Freedom for Uyghurs, Kazaks, Hongkong people!
Strength and prosperity to America!
Reason and humbleness to China!
Peace to the World!
1
Couldn't be a better word to Sum up Democrat Politicians -American stagnation!
I remember when all the smug liberal media types -- in the 70s and 80s -- told us to fear Japan, that they were "eating our lunch".
They stole our dominance in the auto industry and in electronics. They worked longer hours and saved far more money.
We were supposed to become JUST LIKE THEM! or else! or else we'd be awful humiliated failures and our culture utterly dominated by the clever, hard-working Japanese!
How'd all that work out?
You are so off base. David Brooks tells us today that American workers just need to be more productive! The lazy bums. That's why China is pulling ahead!
What do the US, the UK and Australia all have in common. They are all stagnant, or in decline and they are all strapped with a Fox News media juggernaut that uses disinformation and propaganda to grind the national governments down into ineffectual bodies unable to service their own populations but dedicated to corruptly servicing a cabal of greedy corporate interests. It’s literally insane to consider that Australia has a robust group of white nationalists dreaming about white male domination of the world as a growing and strong nation of 1.5 billion people only hundreds of miles from them, propping them up with coal purchases, grows daily. Please NYT and all other media outlets in the US, drive this devil away from us. Help the poor twisted people that Fox has poisoned to see the light of their better self interest.
2
I took a train from Shenzhen to Guangzhou that reached speeds of over 200kph. I took another train from Holland MI to Chicago, a two hour drive which took 4.5 hours at 30mph because it was raining and the "rail bed was too wet' to go any faster.
The Chinese built the U.S. train system over 150 years ago. We should bring them back in to overhaul it completely. They would probably complete it under budget and ahead of schedule.
3
America is not a country. America is a continent.
This op ed is an objective assessment of the current state of US China competition, a rarity in NYT reportings on Chinese affairs. Congratulations.
Another click bait article from NYT. Blame Trump for everything, even though he’s only been in office for 3 years of the decade the author mentions. Western expats having lived in China always quick to brag and promote themselves as “China experts”; like the old saying “you come here and you learn quickly, but the rest has got to be lived”. The only Westerner who truly understood communist China was the late Sidney Rittenberg because he actually experienced the hellish Cultural Revolution first hand himself. You cannot understand modern China if you had not lived through those outlandish years. You need to experience what it was like getting sent to remote cow pastures as a teenager. Some loved it like a Woodstocks experience, some did not survive to tell their stories. The author of this article is clueless about what is happening in China currently. If he dig deeper he would realize most upper middle class families are looking for ways out of China, most already had opened up conduits to diversify away from China. Don’t be foolish. They know the emperor can take away everything if push come to shove. Chairman Mao was willing to destroy his own country to save himself.
The credit that Trump is given is well deserved as will be the consequences of opening up Chinese state run business to American banks so the derivatives flow to where we can’t regulate them. So will the recognition that tariffs will be high and the Chinese will not live up to their purchase promise.
The devastation will greatly outpace the 2008 crash as there will be no way we can recover that debt. Trump will be gone but never forgotten.
Obama was putting a team together. Trump was given the team and fired the linemen so he could be quarterback.
Stand up and cheer. Trump will buy the tickets and say it was the biggest crowd ever. Nobody will be there because there will be nothing to watch.
Thoughtful, balanced, predictive and useful. Key point: China is investing in education, infrastructure, scientific research and bridge-building to other nations, all crucial to long-term growth and development. The U.S. needs to step up in these areas. Unfortunately, the current administration doesn't have the knowledge and know-how to do it.
1
America is being run like a business - specifically like a business targeted by hedge fund managers who are only concerned with extracting value. They have no interest in growing the business or investing for the future. All they care about is maximizing revenue now.
I don’t know where they expect to move onto once they’ve drained the country dry, but they don’t care. Money has no loyalty or morality.
If China is so nice why are our universities full of Chinese students? Why do so many Chinese people want to emigrate to other countries? Why do Chinese women come to the US to give birth to their children?
1
Trump has a major victory in neutralizing a crooked government and the NYT finds someone who claims to be an expert to criticize the POTUS. Where was the expert before Trump made striking economic moves against China that were effective. The expert admits it was smart to make a move. Wall Street responded well to the trade agreement resulting from the tariffs but this one "expert" chooses to differ. It is obvious. Trump says yes and the NYT says no every chance it gets. What gives?
1
“We have the confidence, patience and resolve to realize our goal of great national rejuvenation.”
We have lost all of those qualities. Those very attributes which used to define Americans.
Instead, here in Virginia, we have a wave of angry white men, waving their guns around as they descend on the Capitol, and barking like a bunch of blubbery seals stranded on a beach.
We will never make it to the end of this decade in one piece if we don't turn our priorities around.
2
You really think that the US is only stagnating? The rest of us see you as circling the drain.
With or without Trump, China will rule.
Yeah well we are getting a new wall while they just have an old ancient one..so there!
1
One major problem is Trump.
On the first glance this piece reads, as if it was about China. It isn’t. It is a cry in the night about the US’ loss of its precipitous global dominance, be it political, economic, or military.
Why else would the author pepper his text with words, like “challenge” or “contest”?
2
Leonhardt extolls the "simplicity" of Chinese electronic commerce: "much of Chinese commerce happens within one of two digital networks" and suggests this might be a model for American tech companies. Is this the same Leonhardt who wrote an op-ed piece last year bemoaning the growth of monopoly power in the U.S.?
1
China is a paper tiger. Not only are their buildings empty inside major cities - but they’re a currency manipulator and they regularly steal international IP.
Good for the Trump administration for finally standing up to them. Unfortunately the NYT opinion writers still seem to laud them
The WW II generation’s attitude was communal. “I’m no better than anyone else, but no one is better than me” & “we’re all in this together”. The baby boom generation, my generation, was focused on the individual. It’s credo, “do your own thing”. Sadly, it’s been taken to the extreme. My generation’s elites, perhaps all of my us, have little appreciation for the common good. We have not left our children a better America than our folks had.
1
Americans think they will always be the shining city upon a hill. Keep electing the most ignorant, cruel, and greedy leaders and see where it leads you.
Mock China all you want, furrow your brows from a moral high ground as they continue to commit crimes against humanity, but the simple fact is that China's success via leadership in the past 2 decades has vastly outstripped the U.S. In 1981, the poverty percentage was 63. In modern times, that number is about 3.
While the U.S. government was busy pillaging its entire populace for sacrifices to the wealthy, China has brought a majority of its populace out of poverty. Opposite directions is putting it lightly.
I won't even bother mentioning the differences in the way the two cultures value actual schoolwork and studying. Opposite would be putting it lightly.
The Republican answer to our winning WW II and then the Cold War is to flush it all away with tax cuts for the rich. No investment in the future, no helping working Americans, no improving the lives of and opportunities for the poor. Instead, a new religion of worshiping wealth and a winner take all, kick 'em when they're down economy where poverty is simply the result of laziness.
We won, let's party!
A recipe for defeat.
It's easy to offer this upbeat view of China and its future just as long as you ignore its fatal flaw the unmatched repressive character of the Chinese regime as David Leonhardt does.
Even the likes of demons such as Hitler and Stalin never came close to having the kind of Orwellian grip the so called Chines Communist Party and its leader XI have.
China's vision of the future is economic prosperity wrapped in complete control over the Chinese people and no possibility of an open democratic nation. And a China that will export its system of absolute control to like minded dictators all over the globe.
1
You left out a number of issues that plague China. It is an environmental hellhole with unhealthy air, land and water. Biggest emitter of green house gases. China can air feed her people. They lost close to 50% of their pork production. Look at what Australia sacrificed to make China it’s #1 trading partner: massive wild fires. The future belongs to those that respect nature and live accordingly. The adverse affects of climate change are just beginning with no end in site. The Chinese are the worst polluters in the history of the world. I truly believe they will succumb to corruption and choke on their success.
1
China is a command and control economy of course they have natural advantages.
Just look at the Hong Kong people living in fear of their communist government.
Freedom is expensive but ultimately worth it; no true man can live under the unquestionable nature of Confucianism and stupid mystiques.
My ancestors were chinese and we left a long time ago.. don’t fall for the China story trap, when they become richer and get Hong Kong level gdp the citizens will demand a restructure of the government.
Confucianism and it’s mystiques are no match for the demand for truth from a truly empathetic, educated and free populace, not the competitive cutthroat, corrupt and inhumane people that don’t flinch when somebody gets kidnaped on the street or hit by a car ( not my problem ). Who wants to live in such a society even when there would be so much wealth? It is just a lie.. and the dystopian nature of combining AI and surveillance makes China even worse . NO THANKS
1
China's #1 advantage; no GOP
to dumb down her citizens, and
US democracy is failing, for all the
world to see.
The accompanying picture says it all: China looks forward while Trump is navel gazing.
China is older than the Jewish religion which essentially is God for Christians and others alike. China has patience.
Just four recent New York Times articles/features provide some very instructive insight into the long, slow demise of the United States and the ongoing rise of China:
Why Does America Hate It's Children?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/opinion/children-america.html
Two States, Eight Textbooks...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/12/us/texas-vs-california-history-textbooks.html
A Maine Paper Mill's Unexpected Savior: China
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/us/maine-mill-china.html
China Renews Its ‘Belt and Road’ Push...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/15/business/china-belt-and-road.html
I could have searched for and included articles highlighting America's declining infrastructure woes, poor public transport systems (especially the national rail network), and much more.
Unfortunately, for all his bluff and bluster, the current White House incumbent is clueless and could care less about where this country will be in the next ten years, while his focus is on the next ten months, and (gawd help us!), possibly on the fours years following.
1
my professor from UC Berkeley ended up being a tenured professor at Tsinghau University as she couldn't get tenure here in U.S.
Brilliant! thanks
There seems to be no NYT/Establishment media coverage of the Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi’s visit to China from Sept. 19-23, to make a 20-year deal worth billions to supply Beijing with oil in exchange for Chinese investments in projects to repair Iraq's war-damaged infrastructure.
The US had demanded too much for repairing infrastructure the US had wrecked.
Protests in Iraq started Oct. 1.
The link between the two is the US, outraged with the deal, decided to force Mahdi out of office.
Arab sourcing for Mahdi's comments. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/blowback-from-the-soleimani-assassination-increases-as-iraq-reveals-how-trump-tried-to-steal-its-oil.html
Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi: "I visited China and signed an important agreement with them to undertake the construction instead. Upon my return, Trump called me to rescind the agreement, and when I refused, he threatened me with huge demonstrations against me that would end my PM-ship."
Abdul-Mahdi:.. "And so indeed huge demos materialized against me, and Trump calls again and says, if I don’t comply w/ his demands, he will station Marines snipers atop highest buildings, who will target and kill protestors and security forces alike, in an attempt to pressure me."
Abdul-Mahdi: "Again I refused, & handed in my resignation, and to this day the Americans insist on cancelling our deal with China.
Is the Iraq/China deal not acknowledged by US media, because the US intends to kill it
1
China is hungry -- we are bloated. China is willing to work very hard -- we would prefer to play. China plans -- we flop around from election cycle to election cycle. China has smart leaders in charge -- we have an idiot who thinks he is a very stable genius. I believe this country has a far better set of ideals than China. America sees itself as a land of freedom, of hope and of opportunity. But it will take more than a set of fine ideals to stay ahead of China in terms of raw power. And it will take much more than trust in the markets and a belief in unregulated, rampant capitalism. The current trajectory of history is not in our favor.
1
Three events happened to USA that helped China's rising in the past decades:
1. 9/11
2. Invasion of Iraq
3. Election of Trump
what Americans don't understand is legion.
Americans revel in their willful ignorance and when reality smacks them in the face they whine that no one warned them.
Understand that it wasn't long ago that China was closed off to the rest of the world and everyone there was wearing Mao suits and waiving the little red book. Go fifty miles in from their coast and you're smack dab in the middle of a third world country. Hundreds of millions of Chinese live in abject poverty. What's portrayed as solid gold in the media is nothing more than gilded tin in reality.
13
A fascinating comparison, with less of the usual preachy verbiage and condemnation.
The root of it all can be summed by paraphrasing an Indian diplomat: the US has an open society but a closed mind.
A closed mind leads to several issues. Here are just some:
1. Human rights and free speech are absolute. No, they are not. They are relative to historic experiences (try doing Nazi salutes in Germany) and current circumstances (tiny Singapore has compulsory land acquisitions to survive). Think what apocalyptic climate change will do to human rights and free speech when survival of mankind is at stake.
2. Democracy is good, all else is bad and there is nothing in between. There is a huge difference between popularity and competence. Winning the popular vote will not give you competent governance. It is so puzzling why the US refuses to see this. It even thought introduce democracy to Iraq and all problems will be gone!
Recall the famous Chinese saying? Cross a river by feeling for the stones. This is open-mindedness. They study how the Soviet collapsed and how the US will follow next. Then pick what work and what don't. No blind ideological worship of "human rights" and "free speech".
34
Why, oh why, do we in the USA forever have to see progress in other countries, continents and cultures as a threat? Why can our answer not be to study the other peoples of our world, as have the Japanese, the Turks, the Chinese and since WWII almost all European nations? What can WE learn from THEM, from others’ advances? I am continuing my studies of Mandarin, in order to be able to better accommodate Chinese guests in our AirBnB - Hawaiian language and history so that I understand why Haole are hardly welcome in Hilo, and Colombian cuisine to better explain cooking to my Colombian culinary students. We are NOT exceptional. We are human, even if we have some odd habits like eating jam, peanut butter and Wonder bread as a sandwich. Get a (global) life, man! Why fear “the Chinese”? Why fear “the Mexicans”s? If German cars are better, study the why and not the wherefor. The world is not a sandbox, it is a population of the species Homo sapiens on a small, fragile planet Xin Nian KuaiLe. -Happy New Year (the year of the rat).
32
China has always played the long game and it is well ahead of us in bullet trains, solar energy, 5G and artificial intelligence. China's handling of Trump's trade war has been masterful. As the world's biggest market, it simply prioritized trade with Europe, which has now overtaken the United States as the biggest buyer of Chinese goods. While Trump was bragging about how he put one over on Breijing in the Phase One trade pact he signed this week, the Economist called it a "shabby deal," only good for two years that commits China to buying more soybeans from Iowa but does nothing to stop China's currency manipulations, theft of U.S. technology and other forms of cheating. Instead of antagonizing Iran and sucking up to Kim and Vlad, Trump should be worrying about a Russian-Chinese alliance against the United States.
11
China is the future. The whole, authoritarian, government controlled future. The US decline isn't about it's economy, it's about it's moral rot from within. That's how empires collapse. Other countries don't put a blade into the reigning power, that power cuts it's own throat and slowly bleeds out. The US aren't the good guys anymore. We are just as morally bankrupt as any other country on the planet. We have been invading countries and occupying others nations since the end of WWII without let. The lying, the cheating, the entitlement, the utter disregard for common decency, civility, and rule of law runs from the top to the bottom and moves in all direction. This guys talks about China's surveillance and control of it's citizens, but what do you think this country is doing? How is standing in line at the airport waiting to have your privacy violated any different than what the Chinese do, or allowing law enforcement to scan though millions of surveillance photos with no oversight? And that's just the tip of the irreversible assault on our supposed freedoms. When our economy collapses, and it will, we're not going to recover. The only real gains from the last economic catastrophe were made by the rich. The middle class was hammered, and the poor were ignored. The average American is drowning in a debt that they will take to their graves. China won because they tried to improve their society, not exploit it to ruination.
5
"I think the rational conclusion is to be worried about the future of American power."
ALL empires fail in time (eg. the British , the Roman , the Spanish , Alexander`s . the Persian , the Hittite , the Aztec , various Indian & Chinese , etc). The Trump-Kushner crime family are greasing the skids on the USA`s empire of 800+ foreign military bases & the primacy of the US dollar in global economics. The US is now a distant 2nd to China in issuing new patents.
Trump`s tariffs will not stop China from surpassing the USA. As this article points out the US must invest in education just as China does. ALL empires fail in time. China is moving ahead of the USA & India is probably next.
1
@Duncan Lennox . Simply put, "what goes up, must come down".
I won't blame Trump entirely for our descent, but he is greasing the rails.
2
Let's see, what was happening in America circa 2010? Ah yes, their was a Tea Party revolt and the Republicans took the House and decided to obstruct, obstruct, obstruct. Investment in things like infrastructure, education and scientific r&d became evil socialists plots hatched by globe trotting elitists. Once fringe, anti-intellectual positions became planks in the platform of one of our major political parties. And a right-wing media machine went into overdrive to cheer this all along. I would hate to lay the blame for America's slippage at the feet of one party, but...
508
@Patrick ... I wouldn't. Great post, but Democratic actions (or lack thereof) have also contributed to the stagnation/diminution of the U.S. (albeit not to the same degree).
Most notably, I'm thinking of selling out to big money (eg., Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood) as well as lack of commitment (despite plenty of talk) to equality (income, race, gender) and infrastructure investment.
4
@Patrick Yeah, corporate Dems are not a lot better, just different social wedge issues. Dem socialists really scare the oligarchy.
@Patrick try one man. Rupert Murdoch.
1
“The No. 1 reason China has made such stark progress in geopolitical terms is that its rival just endured a bad decade by virtually every measure. While China takes more steps forward than backward, the United States is moving slowly in reverse.”
That purported reversal did not begin January 20, 2017, and as history has shown repeatedly, nobody fails as often as the Chinese Communists.
So NOW the Chinese think in terms of Decades? REALLY, David Lionheart?
Traditionally, it went like this:
CHINESE think in terms of Millennia (not Melania).
RUSSIANS think in terms of Centuries.
It was the WEST EUROPEANS who thought in terms of DECADES.
And Americans? Well, back when Chinese thought in Millennia, Americans thought in Terms of FOOTBALL SEASONS! OR THE NEXT QUARTERLY REPORT!
Which makes the current Hong Kong situation so hard to understand. In 2019, all China had to do was wait another twenty-eight years, until 2047, when the 50-Year (1997-2047) Deal with Britain over Hong Kong Expires, and there is no longer:
"ONE Country, TWO Systems"
But:
"ONE Country, ONE System". That would be the Communist one.
Compared to 5,000 years of Chinese History, 28 years (or 27 years in 2020), is analogous to a Long Weekend!
2
David L , are you moving to China? We may have issues, but I bet few of your readers or you are moving there any time soon. And as much as T needs be elected out of office I am not ready to adopt or exchange the China leaders to run our country . We had a rough recession in this past decade primarily caused by a world wide housing bubble and excess leading to finance the housing bubble—-for which blame can be found in many causes supported by both sides of the political aisle. Now times are getting much better with material work still to do. Let’s stop all the hating of our neighbors who may vote differently. Hating mostly diminishes the haters. Let’s move on as we have in the past with caring concern and affirmation of our oh so many freedoms.
The disaster of the current Republican Party under the the cult leader Grump seems intent in turning the US into a retrograde economy emphasizing production of raw materials read oil etc and farm commodities. Even it’s ham handed attempts in the area of technology are going to have the ultimate effect of creating a closed loop technology industry whose domestic market remains the worlds largest and will likely remain so for a couple of decades. Trump and the anti science anti technology outside of instruments of war followers of his are doing their utmost to undermine the US. And this bunch doesn’t mind because it’s more concerned with preserving power in the hands of conservative white men. As for the planetary crisis of global warming? The more CO2 and methane the better says Trump and his gang of coal lobbyists in charge.
1
The US subsidizes many parts of its economy. Americans pay twice as much for second rate health care through subsidizing millionaire CEOs and a million and a half irritating parasites in the healthcare insurance industry. Americans spend many times what China spends for an obsolete and unnecessary military. China is spending selectively and advancing faster than the US. The holy trinity of any economy is: Government, Capital, and Labor. That the US is becoming dysfunctional in coordinating these three is the problem. It's time for Americans to stop resting on their laurels and take stock of a system more and more built on myths and momentum.
1
You portray them as a proud country moving confidently into the future. But then there is the other side, the Trumpian side, where dealings with other countries are purely transactional, China has no allies. And like Trump they continually lie and then double down on those lies to cover up their misdeeds (though misdeed seems a bit mild for what they are doing to the Uighurs or have done to the Tibetans.) And then there is the famously thin skin that rivals any angst ridden teenager where they demand we respect their rights to commit crimes against humanity.
2
@Brian When their belt and road answer to our Marshall Plan kicks in fully they well have allies a plenty.
1
Actually there are almost 40 cities with subway lines on the mainland of China.
1
Excellent article. Good reason to continue my subscription this decade.
1
I don't think Mr. Trump wants allies. He want vassals.
1
Leoonhardt writes:
"China’s challenges are real, not just the protests in Hong Kong but also the dissent in Xinjiang and Tibet, the bloat in its state-run companies and the looming decline in its working-age population."
The so-called "looming population decline" is not a problem.
Deng Xiaoping introduced the one-child policy in 1979. Like lemmings all of the commentariat regard this as a problem.
Controlling population growth allowed China to focus on improving living standards for a more slowly growing number of people.
When I visited Shanghai a few years ago, I sipped wine at the top of the Jin Mao Tower, one of a trio of skyscrapers that dwarf the Manhattan skyline. The elevator ride to the top had passed through a hotel too extravagant for me to afford.
Yes, there is still lots of poverty in China, but compare with India. The poverty I saw in Delhi was bone-crushing. India has had no one-child policy and its population will soon overtake that of China.
Journalists not only engage in group-think, but there is a pervasive misguided morality in the US which regards efforts to control population growth as "racist."
The journalists who write for the New York Times don't seem to notice what should be obvious. Population growth is the primary reason for global warming. And as the planet warms, carrying capacity of planet earth will decrease, enforcing a smaller population.
Maybe things aren't so bad. Perhaps the world will soon look to China for leadership.
2
Chinas biggest advantage has been the willingness of Wall Street Dons and Takeover Artists to cut the economic throats of the working middle class for the past 30+ years, closing and moving factories, leaving toxic environmental legacies and shrouding the Nation in guilt, despair and confusion. The pathetic irony of Our "Wall-mart Thinkspeak" is to save money in the marketplace while supporting a system that eliminates your job. To quote Pogo, again; "Yep son, we have met the enemy and He is Us."
1
Trump has no real policies and no long-term strategy for anything. He himself has said he goes with his gut. He shoots from the hip. Good luck with that when dealing with President Xi of China!
And when it comes to any achievement by President Obama, Trump feels he MUST reverse it or eradicate it just to satisfy his own petty jealousy and his need for revenge. Remember that Trump led the racist Birtherism movement against President Obama.
Thus, Trump pulled the US out of President' Obama's TPP. This handed a huge victory to China, allowing China to replace the US as the most important trading partner in the entire Pacific.
Trump's petty jealousy, his lack of knowledge, his unwillingness to listen to professional advice, his unwillingness to learn from more experienced and smarter people dooms America to failure in many areas, but especially when dealing with smart negotiators from China.
Given all this, of course China is winning against Trump and as long as Trump is in office, China will continue to win.
China knows that this impeached president is under pressure from his trial in the Senate and from the 2020 election. They are using these facts to full advantage and will continue to clean Trump's clock just as they did in the Phase One agreement Trump just signed.
2
What you failed to mention is that America built their successful scientific research on certain values: reciprocity, integrity, merit-based competition and transparency. These values foster a free exchange of ideas, encourage the most rigorous research results to flourish, and ensure that researchers receive the benefit of their intellectual capital. China has only cheated and stolen intellectual property.
1
America after WW2 was the most dominant country in the world and in order to neutralize USSR and communism it built a new world order for nations to trade and cooperate including China for world dominance bringing down costs by using other nations and creating a market for its goods and services. By sending production to countries with cheaper labor and costs the US was able to develop its service industry in the form of its lifestyle goods, movies, music and technology which it exported to other countries and labelled them as the American way of life. The problem was that the other countries notably China and Europe are now competing in this area of lifestyle and technology services. Instead of competing and improving Trump is backing off and trying to stop others from building their own doing a crab mentality that in history had shown is the start of a decaying society. The world must stop America from preventing other to achieve , stop them from weaponizing their currency which accounts for using the swift and federal reserve to do sanctions on nations that don't agree with them. Europe, China, Russia, Africa and now even South America should unite and Make America Go Away and just let Trump do what Americans believe which is Make America Great Again. Let those white supremacist think of themselves as superior insulting the billions of Muslims as terrorists, calls the 1.4 billion Chinese thieves , South Americans rapists and Europeans opportunists and just go our own way.
Stop supporting the authoritarian government of China. Stop supporting the Chinese economy. Stop buying Chinese products.
1
We elected Donald Trump as our President - that’s a “Nero fiddled while Rome burns” inflection for America. Of course, we are in deep trouble. It started long before Trump, but Trump will ensure that the American Empire will burn while he and his plutocrat friends get richer.
1
Biggest step backward was electing the craven GOP and the ill informed, self obsessed Trump to the Oval Office, even though he lost the popular vote.
It shows how we have lost respect for qualified individuals and institutions over fake self-promoting celebs.
The old saying goes "Voters get the politicians they deserve"
God help us all.
1
Sadly the processes seem self-reinforcing. The worse things get in the US, the more people trust fake solutions like blaming foreigners (that includes Russiagate), pseudoscience (that include neoliberalism) and senselessly acting out against other countries (see the murder of Suleimani).
1
It's heartening to read comments in the NYTimes showing some knowledge & understanding of an issue,
instead of mindless repetition of Fox News talking points or self-delusional cant that voting every 2 or 4 years is going to solve our massive problems
Re China, it's gratifying to see comments based on actual experience there & elsewhere in the world,
a much-needed corrective to ignorant self-congratulatory blindness of most Americans re where we actually stand
It's particularly reassuring to see comments linking our rapid decline in both hard & soft power
to domination of US political economy by the RPB party of Reagan / Rove / Cheney / & Trump
Their slavish pro-0.1% policies are not just inhumane & embarrassing,
they have destroyed the internal legitimacy of a government that has done little for decades to improve the lives of ordinary Americans
Missing, tho, seems awareness Dems have played their usual "me too" role w their OWN mindless antagonism to China
As much as RPBs, Dems blame China for self-inflicted actions that have damaged the US economy at home, & its power / prestige abroad
This is the main reason Dems have failed to offer any real alternative to radically self-damaging RPB policies
Rather than confront Wall Street, Dems condemn China for actions ALL developing countries -- including the US throughout the 1800s -- have taken to promote growth
If the US has any chance of recovery, Dems dropping anti-China rhetoric will be a much needed first step
3
China has come down hard on religion, perhaps too hard.
While the U.S. is promoting theocracy by the republicans.
China will be the world leader looked up to, while we are going backwards.
Do keep in mind that the so-called "evangelicals" are mostly dangerous people, as time will tell.
2
Nice article as it recognizes co-existence rather that struggle and recognizes significant attitudinal differences in among the peoples. China’s economy is already about four trillion dollars larger than the U.S. economy, according to the World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD . Its growth rate a multiple of America’s this pattern will open further in all likelihood.
Xi Jinping has plans to expand China’s influence in the world by soliciting business related interactions with nations on all continents; what one may ask will be America’s response?
Containment was the policy in the Cold War days and its revamping seems to be a lingering attraction for policy makers, but what has the USA to offer attractively to a changing world – ‘Leadership’?
Finally China’s disputes with its incorporated areas of Xinjiang and Tibet are ancient and reoccurring questions of sovereignty, Taiwan and Hong Kong locally viewed as sovereignty the open sores requiring ‘thoughtful input’. Will it occur? Read the Times and watch – not really our problem.
Maybe it's the case that more Chinese citizens have full stomachs at the end of the day, and don't have to sleep outside at night.
1
One of China's advantages is the values of its people. Chinese people value education and science. Americans value the NFL, the NBA, and the DoD.
2
China has always had people and brains. Now they have money, and will be a powerhouse. Whether for better or worse remains to be seen.
1
I stopped reading at: “Beijing effectively holds veto power over their plans for growth.”
I bet they’re good at building Autobahns too.
We can focus on inequality that affects most of us: private schools attended by the children of the affluent offer an academically rigorous education that prepares graduates for our tough new world. Until we undo the notion that all students can graduate from high school, we will continue to slide into a mediocre future. As a full time community college professor, every fall I see the poor results of our local high schools with a new class of college freshmen, half of whom flunk out because it is the first time they have encountered real demand for homework and the reality of academic failure.
1
It’s extremely impressive what China has accomplished with its dramatic improvements in education, innovation and infrastructure. So, it's particularly perplexing that a country which prides itself on science and progress would be so retrograde when it comes to its treatment of animals.
While currently no country in the world is advanced in terms of animal rights, China has no legislative protections whatsoever for animals, the government failing to outlaw wanton atrocities such as the Yulin dog festival, bear bile farms, fur farms etc.
If China could civilize and upgrade its treatment of animals (maybe even lead the way and surpass the US and Europe?), they would get a lot more respect from myself (and I imagine, others), but without dealing with this glaring moral failure, I am filled with a deep unease at their increasing dominance.
1
@TraceyL Animals? Okaaaaay....
Americans are:
1) Interesting
2) So cute
3) Toast
Because animals = lunch
"The United States is skimping on the investments like education, science and infrastructure that helped make it the world’s great power. "
"Skimping investment in Education ", This statement screamed at me.
The current cost of procuring a secondary education has created a student loan debt of $ 1.53 trillion and rising. This 4 year college degree offers you an advantage over other job applicants who don’t, and this includes positions that don’t necessarily require college. The cost before you here the works 'your hired'? An average IOU of $37,172.00. The current administrations answer addressing this debt?
Djt; "Congress should require institutions to provide more regular, effective financial aid counseling." The quote that came to mind when I read this was by Maximilien De Robespierre;
"The secret to freedom lies in educating people', whereas the secret to tyranny is keeping them ignorant."
I agree Mr. Leonhardt
"The other listed the steps the United States should take to stay strong — like reducing inequality and investing more in the future. The contrast, between progress and stagnation, was clear. I think the rational conclusion is to be worried about the future of American power."
I stand firm that "The contrast, between progress and stagnation" begins with embracing and investing in the design of an of education system that is affordable to all citizens.
4
Suffering from chronic ADHD where domestic, let alone international affairs are concerned, most Americans are hard-pressed to "understand" much of anything that might require more than a few seconds of extended thought, especially where self-examination is concerned.
And therein lies the real issue. While education, the rule of law, ecomomic equity, infrastructure collapse here with zero planning, in typical fashion, we blame the rest of the world for our ineptitude, and cry fowl.
And lamenting Chinese business subsidies while we allow Corporate America to bail on its own people through tax and employment evasion is so pathetically out of sync with our own realities as to be laughable.
We're a losing team whose forgotten that to win, we have to regain our mastery of the fundamentals, and invest in the team. Until that happens, we should expect other countries with an actual game plan to win, while we slump.
3
What makes this worrisome is not simply China’s absolute and relative gains. What is wrong with another nation prospering as best it can for the benefit of its citizenry ? We would not much begrudge or fear if this were to occur in Greece or Japan provided it was not net reducing our ability here in US to do our best. Provided it was not a zero sum game, which it is not. Britain and France would not have feared and loathed the US’s path from 1880s to 2010 when it in absolute and relative terms it eclipsed those great powers. Solely it was USSR that was bothered greatly by the US trajectory for fifty years for politically ideological and hegemonic reasons. It is more the less commented ‘elephant in the room’ that is bothersome. This growth in Chinese strength coupled with its principles many of which are antithetical to our Western Liberal values. The fact that Tencent and Alibaba are virtually state sponsored and any notion of privacy and political freedom is long gone in both the political articles of the CCP and in the small print and the operations of the apps which have fully penetrated Chinese smart phone society. What is most scary is how Americans are becoming sheeple. Follow the touchscreen. The US tech industry is following Chinese tech app footsteps because they are so powerful in their use and the US government gains access and leverage as another article in NYT today points out concerning facial recognition. Something the Chinese are five years ahead on in public.
2
A lot of food for thought, but no mention of the fact that China has a billion more people than the USA. That's a huge cohort of people who make and consume things. I believe Americans have not internalized what that means for the future.
3
Rather than fear China's rise, we should be terrified of our increasing irrelevance to the world, and to eroding our rule of laws, investments in non-military research and development, and infrastructure. Over the past decade, the rest of the world looks to America only for weapons and pharmaceuticals. They don't see America as a force for anything else good or decent. We have become our worst enemy.
9
China has a long history which the present regime has tied itself to. Mao and all of his flamboyant genocidal catastrophes are long behind them. China has been lifted up by the fact that their economy provided cheap labor controlled by a tight no jokes police state. Deng provided for economic transformation of the country but absolutely no political compromise by the regime. The west threw money and technology at China little thinking that the Chinese would turn this around and become a huge growing economy which the wealthy countries didn't see coming. Now the rest of the world of is resentful at their success and appalled by their repressive behavior against political dissent. Trump has fully realized the anti-China resentment in the US. Trump has ended the Bretton Woods system of free trade which China abused to its advantage. But Trump has now used US tariffs to extort compliance with his nefarious misguided foreign policy goals.
Leaders in China looks into the future in 10 year intervals.
Business leaders in the US don't look past individual quarterly earnings reports. News outlets, including the NY Times, treat the daily stock market report as the most relevant measure of economic health.
We treat college students as a short-term investment opportunity instead of a long-term national investment in the future.
I could go on about infrastructure and climate, but, most of all, we have a minority party in power who are 100% focused on making a handful of rich people yet richer as the best national policy going into the future.
No wonder.....
16
The US has become a clear and dangerous predatory state. It threatens its allies, it routinely violates international law, it tears up international agreements and treaties, and it has weaponized its economy to blackmail and punish its enemies and friends. It needs to be stopped and contained. By contrast, for the most part, China obeys international law (far moreso than the US) and minds its own business. Its foreign policy, at least in principle, is to respect the sovereignty and history of other states. Most importantly, it is a growing and necessary counterweight to abusive American power. The US' growing failure is due both to inherent flaws in its fundamental ideology and its failure to manage the inequality and political/social tensions that have resulted from its economic and racial inequalities. The radical neoliberal philosophy that governs the US is slowly killing it but the fanatical devotion of its political class to NL remains intact. Even more, the American right wing is defined by its hatred of foreigners - both at home and outside the US. Abusing and bullying people whom you hate and fear is not hard. Now, with Trump, the Republican base's hatred and contempt for everyone who is not American has been given full expression. In the face of all of this, the US deserves to stagnate. Indeed, for the rest of the world, the decline of US power is the best way to protect ourselves from American abuse.
4
@Shaun Narine
The view of many Europeans, also.
Two decades ago I was dealing with the international trade issues for an international organization.
Great was my wonder to see how many times the competent committees had to provide exemptions and authorizations for imports of everything from China to the West.
Once I played naif and asked the bosses why the West had to help the China undemocratic development and State owned Chinese companies.
The reply was a patronizing smile with a short but very enlightening explanation: "My dear, we are supporting Western companies, which are making a lot of billions, US Dollar or Euro whatever"
Where were the Western ruling and political classes to better govern the commercial relations with China and avoid to impoverish the Western middle classes to enrich the 1% owners of the corporations and as consequence their Chinese partners?
Maybe the Communist and authoritarian Chinese politicians are smarter or more aware of the general interest of their people than the Western democratic rulers?
2
"President Emmanuel Macron of France now argues that Europe should position itself as a third global power between the United States and China, rather than what it has been — an American ally."
This sounds as if a united Europe that takes a position among the US and China as an equal could not or would not be an ally to America. Or, from the other perspective, as if the US, in your opinion, don't need a strong ally in Europe so much as a kind of dependant colony.
As to the first, why wouldn't it? At the moment there is a reason: Europe believes in democracy and human rights and the rule of law and many US politicians and voters obviously don't. That doesn't make the US a perfect or even viable ally in most areas except where raw military power is concerned. But then.. see Iraq etc. So, definitely problems to solve.
The second possibilty: try to not even suggest something like that.
1
@PE I forgot the last sentence in my last but one paragraph: .. Iif that happens, of course we can be best of friends (again). And we do have interests in common, so a strong and united Europe that is a power on its own could and would of course ally with the US, at least in certain situations.
The title should be: "What Most Americans Don't Understand About China's Power."
The Opinion begins well with: "Chinese leaders stretching back to Deng Xiaoping have often thought in terms of decades." It should have continued with: "In America, we no longer think in terms of decades, but in terms of the corporate quarters and election cycles."
I think the Opinion would have done well to have explored that idea further. All of the dysfunction, all of the failure to support education, science, infrastructure *and the arts,* flows from that lack of an ability to postpone short-term profits and advantage, and focus instead on long-term planning and goals.
Some Americans have known this for years.
Trump is a symptom, a canker on the body politic, he is not the cause of the disease; but he leverages the disease for his own gain. Half of the country, and most of the corporate heads, support his actions, since his actions seem to serve their own.
For them all is well. The Dow is poised to hit 30,000. Abortion is nearly vanquished. A steak on every burner and a rifle in every home. All's right in the world.
China slowly gains.
18
China's progress is remarkable, but the use of their incredible technological prowess - social credit/Uighurs camps is frankly terrifying.
7
China is building infrastructure at a pace that makes America look like she is still in the 19th Century. I am more hopeful of China’s progress than I am of America’s progress. And that would be in al measures such as spending, inequality, infrastructure, democracy, etc. The GOP has filled our courts with their pick that will continue to retard American Progress with antiquated thinking that contributes to the rise in inequality, destruction of the environment, lack of infrastructure, income stagnation, etc. Unfortunately, our diversity is causing a backlash with tribal nationalism driven by white fear instead of a realization that we all need to make progress to compete with China, India, and the rest. And Trump has only hastened America’s demise with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer but working three jobs since our minimum wage is $7.25/hr which equates to a yearly salary of $15,080 a year. And what quality of life can one expect making a gross salary of $15,080? And this is the case with the cost of education rising and unchecked thereby placing economic strains on families and individuals that recognize the value of education to increase individual and family household income. But, as they say, it is what it is. America has chosen to become a Third World Country while the so-called Third World Countries have decided to become the World’s Emerging Economies and Global Geopolitical Leaders. All while we have the worse corruption this generation has seen.
16
David,
I wish that I had been with you at the New Economy Forum. I think I would have introduced the concept for a stronger international alliance based on the common sense reality that the major users and producers of fossil energy, Europe, Russia, China, India, North and South America, and the oil, natural gas, and coal producers must treat climate change as a threat to the global economy and to the standard of living and life expectancy of all mankind.
Despite current U.S. leadership, we must make the shift to non-fossil energy and the modern technologies required to provide the water, food, and other technologies that operate on electricity.
It is absurd for world's capital and governments of the current civilization to continue to ignore and deny the need to increase the investment in developing non-fossil electricity and the other technologies required to light, cool, heat, and transport millions of items of goods that are integral to our standard of living.
If fossil fuel consumption rate stays constant. World primary energy consumption will grow greatly in the decades ahead. Present world population, now 7.5 billion, is projected to be 9 Billion in 2050 and 11 Billion by 2100, according to the UN. Moreover, the standard of living and per capita energy consumption is rapidly growing in the World. Assuming the World per capita energy consumption in 2100 is the same as that of Americans today, 11 Billion people in 2100, would use 6 times today’s consumption.
3
Unfortunately it's all too true...if you spoke to many
Americans about whether there should be a high speed
train from New York to, say Cincinnati, if not Chicago or Atlanta, you would get such wide stares of bemused incredulity....
How could such a thing ever become possible, and who could possibly want to pay for it? (and what form of energy would it use...but that's another issue). It's up to (rugged) individuals to figure out how to get from one place to another, it's not the government's role to decide for them, nor make it easier, more convenient, etc. etc. Why should my taxes go
to make someone else's self displacement a pleasant
and simple experience?
So we stew in our own self imposed and rigidly ideological inertia, keep our eyes firmly focused upon our screens, and try not to imagine a better collective future.
Indeed, I wonder whether the idea of "the future" is now
passe in anything other than as a dystopic and very
very dark, dangerous, unhealthy place that no screen will
be able to screen out.
17
On the economic impact of increased consumer spending in China, there is a great deal of leeway for this to increase even further--steadily increase--over the next decade. To the point where it will drive the economy, as it does in the U.S., where mistakes that the government and banking system make will be overshadowed by it.
And the attempts at economic colonialism of their neighbors will increase, especially as the U.S. under the policy of Trump and Putin have abrogated any serious push back against this. (Putin-and-Trump in that it is clear that Trump takes orders from Putin. Ukraine is not just a Crime Boss trying to fix an election--the latest being surveillance meant to intimidate an Ambassador who was seen to be in the way; make her think she was in danger--but someone acting on behalf of the Russians to drive a wedge between Ukraine and the U.S. and help Russia's continuing war effort to keep territory seized and add to it. While there was a direct computer link from Trump Tower to the Russians during the election, and Trump has tried to repeatedly arrange secret meetings with the Russians, all of that is actually no longer necessary, as by now Trump knows exactly what the Russians want him to do. The "perfect" in that call was meant for Putin)
All of the under-funding of education, science, and infrastructure is thanks to the White Supremacy movement started with the Tea Party and Gingrich. Dixiecrats like McConnell and Graham have jumped on board...and Trump.
2
And I visited Africa, Namibia specifically. There the Chinese are funding the construction, using Chinese labor, of a huge expansion of the port making it a gateway for trade with the south of that continent. Many other projects across Africa are Chinese funded particularly infrastructure to enable easy access, for China, to these markets.
America spends money on endless wars, and begrudges the foreign aid budget. China spend money making friends and building markets. The invisible hand is Chinese.
14
I lived in Beijing for a year in 1996. I returned for a visit in 2000 and was stunned at the change in just 4 years, both in the sophistication of the residents and the infrastructure. Clearly they have kept up the pace.
But the heavy handed re-education of the Uyghur people still shows the regime holds the power over the people.
2
As an international student who grew up in Nanjing, China, I witnessed my city evolve into the impressive hub of commerce and communications. However, the ever-present fear that someday China would become an all-powerful authoritarian state that penetrates all corners of civilian life still drives students abroad, seeking a society that knows the importance of dissent and critical thought.
I, along with the tens of thousands of other students juggle the choice of going back to China and testing the chance of staying in the States. Though Chinese society is seemingly beneficial to the majority of the population, much suffering and dissent is silenced and swept under the carpet. On the other hand, inner turmoil in American society is evident, with widening partisan divides and growing fears of Chinese power. It is us who stand in the middle who are most vulnerable if either establishment fails.
12
It's impressive that China has invested to make more people enjoy the benefits of its success. The future of the US determined by greed, which doesn't care if everyone in the country is successful. Hope our new leaders are wiser and find a better balance.
1
Thanks, very important story well done.
3
One of the factors holding the US back is ideology. Any attempt to have the US government spend more on education or infrastructure is opposed by the right as 'socialism'. Somehow the private sector is expected to make the huge investments required. Europe and China accept that the state has a legitimate and essential role in the modernisation of the nation. In the US government funds are diverted from modernisation to a bloated and largely unproductive military sector. The multi-trillion dollar Middle East wars have contributed nothing to US modernisation, or even its security.
17
America's stagnation undermines our nation and advantages our adversaries. Both China and Russia know this and act to amplify chaos that helps them and hurt us. It should be clear by now that Russia's aid to Trump is in their best interest, not ours. Divide and conquer is as old as time and those supporting it are not our friends. Our adversaries don't want us to succeed and will try everything to stop us. Unity, not division, is our strength. Americans need to come together to regain our technical, political, and moral lead in the world. That, and only that, is in the best interest of America and our democratic allies.
3
Two other important items that Americans don't understand about China:
1.4 BILLION people and a history as a country that exceeds 5000 years.
12
@Deus
What Americans and other freedom-loving people around the world cannot understand is why 1.4 billion people with an ostensible 5,000 year history would permit themselves to be ruled over by an ignorant, oppressive government headed by a petulant, insecure man who has shown no respect for human life — least of all, Chinese — and who has unilaterally decided to be ruler for life.
Other than that, Americans understand plenty about China.
5000y is false to the current China . CCP’s cultural revolution shortened mainland China’s history to only 70 yrs .
1
Why have incomes, wealth and life expectancy in the United States have stagnated for much of the population? Because the United States is now overpopulated. How can wages rise, when we endlessly import cheap labor?
Sure, there's lots of land left, but most of it is too dry or too mountainous to support additional population; that's why adding population is now a negative, and not a positive, as it was when the country was sparsely populated.
The way forward for the United States, is too start maintaining a rational approach to immigration.
5
Your point doesn't make any data proven sense. Wealth, health, and education have suffered in the US because of a lack of investment. Some conservative politicians have decided that short term savings are more important than long term prosperity. One of the most consistent drivers of economic growth has been immigration and this is still true today. The US would've gone into the red with social security if it wasn't a young population of immigrants paying into the system (in fact one of the solutions for SS today could be increased immigration). It seems you want 'overpopulation' to be the issue rather than it actually being an issue.
9
Simply put: If you're a 20-something or 30-something in China how can you not be proud of the strides China has made in your lifetime?
In the same period of time, America has entered into winless endless wars to waste trillions of dollars that could have been spent rebuilding its infrastructure, educating its children, advancing clean technology and confronting the issues of climate change.
And yet we have to ask what Americans don't understand about China's power?
23
@George
The US has squandered almost $6 TRILLION dollars on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - accomplishing none of our stated goals. God knows what we have spent on the 800 bases our military has all over the rest of the planet.
Meanwhile China has only a few military bases outside mainland China.
The US has shipped most of its industrial base overseas - much of it to China. Instead of contributing to the GDP of the US, those factories now earn money for China.
We have accelerated the rise of China by 50 years.
21
I found the column and most of the readers comments quite sympathetic towards China as well as pessimistic regarding the potential for the US to keep the number 1 position as World leaders. I found extremely intriguing that the the word Democracy neither appeared in the article nor was mentioned in the comments I followed. If democracy is identified with the defense of the interests of the whole population of a country I would ask the columnist and the readers: who is more democratic nowadays the President of the US or the leader of China?
10
Democracy in America is a deep fiction. The truth is that in America the only thing that speaks with force is money. The cacophony of voices stagnates progress until forceful action, driven by money, moves us forward.
All of our self-righteousness won’t change that and our history complicates that even further. You need look no further than the tenure of Robert Moses to realize that in order to make massive infrastructure projects a reality, a forceful state is needed. Compare that to the challenges that currently face the rebuilding of the Brooklyn Promenade. In the time it will take us to build 2 miles of road, China will have built 100,000.
So while I love the principles of democracy, I also understand the heavy handed Chinese approach because even we have used it in the past; we just have a very short memory.
So the interesting conundrum is, does democracy require a heavy handed government in order to ensure the most even handed benefit to most? The Chinese would probably agree. We, at one time, did too.
The great advantage that US had in 2010 was that it could provide unmatched opportunities for highly talented individuals. As a result, the top of the top talent from all over the world would seek opportunities in the US. It didn't matter that China (or India) turned out many more PhDs, when the top 1% of their PhDs all immigrated to the US and helped build up US technology and science.
The combination of improved conditions and opportunities in other countries and the hostility and xenophobia flaming out from Trump, has made the move to US much less attractive (or even impossible). Our legal immigration has fallen from about 900K to 600K per year. That is a lot of initiative and talent that no longer will flow into US and instead stay in countries we compete with. Trump will mark the beginning of the end of the American century. Once your reputation is ruined it is almost impossible to get it back again.
21
Re: "The United States is skimping on the investments like education, science and infrastructure that helped make it the world’s great power."
That's most of the problem. The public doesn't support this type of spending with votes so it doesn't happen. The donor class supports wealth concentration above everything else. The Washington establishment supports American Empire, Inc over America.
The Democrats confuse "normal" and "panacea" with change. Even after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi showed Democrats how to make health care a winning issue in the 2018 election (a masterclass really), the Democratic presidential candidates can't get it right. Make America more economically competitive? That ain't on the agenda.
Trump's a symptom of decline. The drivers of decline lie elsewhere.
14
While the strategy for handling China is prescient the methodology of using real estate bullying tactics doesn’t translate well in international relations.
Since the president is also intellectually hampered by his own genius he continually fails to address the nuances and cultural issues in trade negotiations.
The consistent quality of negotiating by bullying is failing but he doesn’t have the insight to understand that these tactics are hackneyed, trite and unable to deliver the end goals.
What he will leave us with is a trade negotiation that will not deliver on the promises made. He is using short term bullying tactics against a long term Go/ Chess exploitive cabal in China.
1
@Rh
Trump is handling his role as President exactly the same way he has handled his business, threats and intimidation, winners and losers, no empathy for anyone or anything, never admit to mistakes and no room for compromise.
These are the exact reasons why you never elect a so-called "succesful" businessman with no previous government experience to lead a country.
The U.S. has been stagnant in many ways, and not only in the past decade. Our country has been misgoverned for decades. We have allowed inequality to fester. We have failed to invest in education, infrastructure, and research. Major problems--climate change, immigration, race relations, etc.--are not solved or even addressed.
16
Maybe the next generation of American businesspeople will understand more than the bottom line of profit and share value and be conscious of social contract with the rest of the community. We tend to look at the finance numbers and ignore the social and environmental impact of business decisions. The Republican Party needs to be shamed out of existence.
9
Very informative article Mr. Leonhardt. However, it would be interesting to look at the metrics comparing relative process in China and the U.S. since the end of the second world war. The Chinese mainland was significantly impacted during war and the communist revolution that followed. While the Chinese were rebuilding, in the U.S. we able to focus on development. The major question here is a whether a decade is a sufficient amount of time to use in developing a deep understanding of the two nations now at opposite ends of a bi-polar world.
1
The Chinese have national pride and even though it is diverse in culture the population is ethnically homogeneous. The control by the government to check foreign influences makes it less likely to rebel and be divided. America is not stagnant but the freedom of choice and the influence of the media and the free press is divisive and there is no unity in national pride. It is free for all in the USA. Very rarely we can get Americans to agree on anything. The Trump derangement syndrome has resulted in many tying America to Trump's presidency and there are people who think that when America succeeds Trump succeed and that to some makes it harder to remove Trump from office. Contrast that to China's Xhi who has consolidated his power almost to the same extent as Mao. I don't think the Chinese are that divisive they support China even if they think that makes Xhi look great.
Our over charged Democracy is vibrant and not stagnant but yes when there are a large number of addicts in America it may seem that there American stagnant. Its only in Trump's rallies that we see little stagnation and a lot of enthusiasm and a whole different patriotic America.
2
It could reasonably be argued that China thinks, not in decades, but in centuries.
We tend to forget that this nation's history dates back a couple of thousand years. We also are at fault when we chide China for its lack of democratic rule when, in fact, over those two millenia it has absolutely no history of democracy. How can you be at fault for not following a tradition you do not have?
And we are also remiss in failing to acknowledge that, much as we hate to admit it, under communist rule, China has made remarkable strides. Yes, the Red Chinese (to use a pejorative from the 1950's and '60's) have brought a nation of one and a half billion people from poverty and starvation to the level of being on the cusp of a broad middle class economy. An economy, by the way, which is arguably the largest in the world.
America under Trump is living deep in the past. It is living under the continuing illusion of "exceptionalism" such that it fails to acknowledge, much less, understand China's rise and growing strength.
America is falling backwards in many ways against many standards throughout the world. Our decline vis a'vis China is real but not unique.
We now choose to view China as a rival rather than as possible co-leader in a diverse world.
The Chinese will not wait for us to wake up to the new reality of the 21st Century. They are moving ahead (yes, with problems too) while we allow ourselves to follow Trump and navel gaze.
9
I’ve always wondered how the US is getting away with its low output education system, its lack of funding in fundamental research and its lack of investment in infrastructure.
Highly educated immigration (H-1B, L1, ...) and acquisitions certainly play a role in compensating, but surely this can’t last, especially when the rural part of America is in charge of policy.
6
One comment on this unified ecommerce model in China: this is a godawful idea and I hope it never happens in the west. We already cede far too much power to social media companies and I believe making them the storefronts of every business would only make matters several times worse. Imagine if Facebook knew your purchasing habits, bank account numbers, credit card numbers, where you've travelled, and what sorts of coffee you drink. Sounds like a nightmare scenario to me.
So, no thanks. I'd very much rather not pay for or order train tickets, gas, food, and coffee via Facebook or any other social media company. In fact, I'd rather pay with cash than do that.
5
@Mr. Adams What would a social media company possibly want your information for except to give you a better experience? Even when they sell user data to other companies, the end goal is so that consumers get a better experience. I see no problem.
As a frequent visitor to China, I couldn't agree more with Mr. Leonhardt's assessment. When the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, the US responded with the National Defense Education Act and the School Mathematics Study Group, both of which helped in my education as a computer scientist. Today, we meet China's growth in the sciences with complaints that their knowledge is 'stolen' and by strong-arming countries around the world not to buy technology from Huawei and ZTE.
The comparison between the New York subway system and those of Beijing, Nanjing, or Kunming, is simply astonishing. We invest nothing in our nation's infrastructure. The US scores low in measures of educational achievement https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/15/u-s-students-internationally-math-science/ft_17-02-14_stem_table/
The problem has been many years in the making. It can't be blamed only on Trump. Many Americans equate strength with military might, not with education and infrastructure. The result is that the US is coasting while China moves ahead. Change will happen when Americans care enough about making the needed investment to elect a congress that will pass appropriate legislation.
Part of the problem is that Americans know little about China. It's a wonderful place to visit and it's possible to get bargain airfares. Consider China for your next vacation.
11
When you allow rural conservative state politicians from nostalgic think places like Kentucky, Mississippi and Idaho, what do you expect to happen. These people prioritize maintaining social constructs over issues like technology and innovation. A lot of these places are extremely parochial and few are in driving distance of major international airports.
Therefore, spending on education or technology is not a priority. Instead it’s prayer, abortion, guns and other social issues that rule the day.
For what it’s worth, progressives have their own parochial, inward world views too.
16
Practically every empire declines: the Roman empire, the Spanish, the British, and now the American. Many think that America is an exceptional nation, and will avoid decline. Ronald Reagan, in his last message to the American people, assured us that our best days are ahead. That was about 20 years ago.
Nations decline, in large part, because its elites are selfish. Instead of devoting themselves to manufacturing, teaching,
research, they focus on finance, which enriches them and few others.
In his inaugural address on March 4, 1933, FDR urged his audience to drive the money changers from the temple. They are now back, stronger than ever.
In his new book, historical sociologist, Richard Lachmann claims that we are First Class Passengers on a Sinking Ship.
17
I think America's Asian pivot strategy was perhaps unnecessarily confrontational at a time China might have been open to concessions in the spheres of climate and technology, if not territory. Chinese officials visited the US for an official state dinner in late 2010 or early 2011. Since Xi and Trump began their ascent, though, both sides have hardened. We'll see where it goes from Nov. 2020, because China has an interest in US success––despite talks of being a superpower, China has a cultural history of caution in foreign affairs. The US also wants China to improve its behavior. This is not a hot relationship like with Russia. Or it doesn't have to be. A lot will depend on economic deescalation, but cultural feelers could rectify a lot of the differences between us and set us both on a better path of coexistence instead of hegemony.
3
To compare the growth rate of a developing country vs a mature economy like US and then conclude it is growth vs stagnation is at best laughable. China built their growth on high national debt which will be due soon, riding on existing technology n stealing when necessary, and reneging on their WTO promises while taking all the benefits. Now the world is waking up to their economic, cultural, political and territorial ambitions, the game has changed and China will find it difficult if not impossible to challenge US.
4
What the GOP has missed with their war on woman and non-white people is that excluding so much of the population from the fruits of capitalism has a devastating effect on competitiveness on the world stage. We need the gene pool of ALL Americans to compete. Add this to the GOP's war on science, war on facts, war on the environment, war on our constitution and war on the rule of law and we will continue to fall behind other nations. Why can't the GOP see that, polluted food and water will be served at the country club as well as the drive thru. In the short term, the GOP and Donald Trump can live in a hallucinatory state and pretend that "America is winning," but facts are stubborn things.
15
It is true that American economy is "mature" and has little room for expansion whereas China is in a growth phase. The so called stagnation of America is accompanied by retrenchment in human rights, upswings in racism and white supremacy. America does not do well in education for young people, placing far back in the pack in International Testing in reading and math. The anti-science stance of many government officials in America does not bode well for science and engineering to excel in universities.
In spite of the Trump tariffs, China will continue on their road while America is stuck with Trump somewhere in the 1930s mindset. Without a major renewal in America, China will automatically surpass all other countries in economic gain and scientific achievement in this decade. "Make America Great Again" are words without any real connection to reality.
12
If only our government approached and understood China like Elon Musk and the team at Tesla.
1
Why is it bad for the U.S. if China improves? Why is this a zero-sum game? If China’s economy grows and its people make more money, that’s more potential customers for us, and less competition from low-wage Chinese workers. What are they going to do, take Alaska from us? We should worry about our own problems for their own sake, not because they affect our status relative to China.
12
I visited China. They are a hard working, wealthy and have very modern cities.
America has lived off the prosperity passed on to us by hard working Americans of long ago. For many years we as a people, and particularly our dysfunctional/fractured government, have allowed our country to slowly deteriorate. It really shows when compared to the Chinese.
12
@Roger G. I wonder why then so many chinese people want to come to American, and why chinese women are crazy about white men?
The following as stated by the author may be true: "The No. 1 reason China has made such stark progress in geopolitical terms is that its rival just endured a bad decade by virtually every measure." What is just as true is that the only reason the US seems to have been making progress is that China has had a few bad centuries over a span of millenia. For most of recorded history, China has had the world's largest economy and, for a fair bit of time, has had a large part of the world's military might. The decline of the Qing Dynasty just happened to coincide with the rise of West and the industrial revolution. China sees the current direction as just a return to normal.
6
This is one of the most sober analyses I've read on the current state of China. The NYT plays a critical role in our understanding of an often misunderstood frenemy. I've found the NYT disproportionately fixated on China's weaknesses and flaws. Out of 20 articles, 18 will be negative, conveying a sense of failure, unsustainability and a horrifically oppressed population yearning for revolution. This is simple untrue and I urge the Editors to take a more balanced approach in their reporting. By focusing almost solely on China's flaws, we run the risk of being both complacent and bigoted. We've predicted a China collapse for twenty years but the country has only gone from strength to strength. Time to accept that the system they have works for them and we may even want to learn a thing or two.
22
The very reason that American has been going backwards in the past decade or so is because the American people elected the wrong Presidents: Obama especially, then previous Bush. Wasted tremendous amount of money and energy in midEast for nothing.
Finally Trump started to do the right things.
2
@Jay The country would be better off if Trump stuck to running his fake University.
The People’s Republic of China’s has been in existence since 1949. Our Republic began in 1789. Johnny-come-lately can take a hike if he thinks the future belongs to him.
1
Wait, China existed since recorded history...
1
It's good that David Leonhardt walked on Chinese streets and talked to people in China, locals & expats. The tone of this op-ed is entirely different from those Americans who harbor weird opinions about China and embrace USA exceptionalism, yet never spend a single day in China. They need to see modern Chinese airports, hi-speed trains & subways. Many Americans still think China only produce goods for their neighborhood dollar stores, not knowing the majority of the world's fastest supercomputers are homemade in China, yes, including the computer chips. They still imagine Chinese as oppressed people just because Facebook is shut out, together with fake news. Cultural exchange is essential to bridge the gap of misunderstanding between two people, but recent flare up of Yellow Peril revival in USA is not encouraging.
I have at least one bone to pick with David Leonhardt though: he wrote "...a remarkable share of contemporary television shows cast the Japanese military as villains." It is historical fact. Chinese should learn their history. Ask any American GI who fought in the Pacific Rim during WW2, especially those spent time at labor camps. Japanese military forces were more than villains. They were barbaric, as the Nanking massacre demonstrated.
8
The disparaging difference is the 'dumbing' down of America and the educational leap in Asia, all happening in a juggernaut technological revolution. Nothing could be more evident than the election of Trump, Geo politically clueless yet dangerously thinking he has a "good brain" and "so many words". He is the most negative child of capitalism and celebrity fealty. As the old saying goes, we are the Hertz to China's Avis. We are getting fatter, lazier, and more apathetic, leading to arrogant patriotism based on fears, negative impulse, and a misplaced sense of military might. Clueless people lead to clueless leadership, and in our case, falling to the vices of unrestrained capitalism and a near corporate oligarchy. Both parties are at fault , but the Republicans have been completely bought without half the apathetic public realising it. As evidenced by past empires, descending into the maelstrom is our future.
10
@Ron Cumiford "He is the most negative child of capitalism and celebrity fealty." Spot on. Thank you for this.
1
Donald Trump is the worst thing that could have happened to America in terms of its global competition with China. We need a president & a Congress willing to invest in America, its people, & in America's "soft power" around the world.
4
Shall we coin a new term? "Chinese Exceptionalism" vs. American Exceptionalism.
The "Chinese Model" based on their performance in the last 40 years would qualify China as an entirely different kind of Exceptionalism. Just one statistic is enough:
"According to the World Bank, more than 850 million Chinese people have been lifted out of extreme poverty; China's poverty rate fell from 88 percent in 1981 to 0.7 percent in 2015, as measured by the percentage of people living on the equivalent of US$1.90 or less per day in 2011 purchasing price parity terms."
Former NY Times China correspondent Evan Osnos recently wrote "...When I started studying Mandarin, twenty-five years ago, China’s economy was smaller than Italy’s. It is now twenty-four times the size it was then, ranking second only to America’s, and the share of Chinese people in extreme poverty has shrunk to less than one per cent. ..."
Economists would attest that this success in eliminating poverty is an historical achievement. Seems Chinese leaders take Lincoln's famous words to heart: "government of the people, by the people, for the people".
13
What America should have been worried about is the way it has supplied much of the demand for China's industrial expansion and export trade. This has led to shrinkage of manufacturing and stagnation of wages in this country, but enrichment of the leaders of the corporations which have been able to take advantage of the trade. These economic developments were an important factor in the rise of Donald Trump, and trying to change this situation is one promise that he has actually made some effort to fulfill, albeit in an incompetent way. Those who want to remove Trump should be proposing constructive ways to remedy the trade imbalance, not just insist that the status quo must not be disturbed.
As Leonhardt says, consumption in China itself is expanding rapidly and there should be less need for China to rely on exports in the future. The US should encourage this trend in a cooperative way. The two countries need not always be in a position of hostility. Cooperation will be needed to face major world problems such as global warming.
5
I see this point raised frequently, but I don’t understand it. Why is it an issue that the Chinese government subsidizes its companies? If that’s how they choose to spend their money, why should we care? The US government subsides the oil & gas, agriculture, and finance industries to name a few.
393
@Thad How is neo-Mercantilism hard to understand in the case of the PRC? Actually massive resources have been pumped into favored companies/industries, including stolen IP, for a couple of decades now to support an essentially Brezhnev economic doctrine: What is yours is mine, what is mine is mine ...
Agriculture and oil & gas can be put down to food and energy security. When it comes to Agriculture, the Chinese and others had larger subsidies, at least between 2015 and 2017.
9
@Michael Dunne You did not answer my question. All you did was taunt me for not already knowing, restate the issue, then rationalize what America does and complain that China does more of it.
55
@Thad Simply the US empire is afraid of the powerful collective spirit of China (aka. mix of state and people). The 1% US elites that separate from 99% American people cannot compete with that Chinese blending, so they want to force China to dismantle this spirit under the banner of state subsidies.
31
I've been living in a second tier city in China for past 11 years, and the change I've seen is remarkable. High speed rail, subways, a tremendous building boom, and online shopping were all things that did not exist when I first arrived.
One of the things not mentioned, but is a marked difference between the US and China is optimism among the general population. Almost all Chinese people think that through hard work they can improve their lives. I don't think most Americans feel that way.
I expect that most innovations in green technology are going to be produced by the Chinese. Electric motorscooters have replaced blue smoke spewing motorcycles. Electric cars will soon be common as well.
And the subway is cheaper than Mr Leonhardt reports. The exchange rate is about 7 yuan to the dollar, so it's about 14 or 21 cents.
394
@emsique
This last means that in a price-adjusted comparison China's economy is much larger than appears.
13
@Thomas Zaslavsky : Yes, on price parity their economy is larger than ours.
18
@emsique - "Almost all Chinese people think that through hard work they can improve their lives." That's the boom talking. A boom is what gave America its own middle class post-WWII. It's what gave Europe its middle classes after the Industrial Revolution. As much as it depresses me, I've really come to realize that you only get a thriving middle class full of people who feel empowered to improve their lives when you have a boom--a sudden, astronomical rise in wealth--so much wealth that the rich and rapacious are kept busy snapping up the big pieces and there are plenty of small ones for the rest of us. But once the big pieces are gone, the wealthy go after the small ones, and when the small ones are gone, the wealthy eat the middle class. Then hope and optimism vanish and the middle class merges with the poor. The pursuit of wealth for its own sake is possibly the greatest evil in the world, and at the root of every major problem we are struggling with.
17
In China, higher education is affordable. Teachers are respected. In the U.S., neither is true.
China is building infrastructure at a prodigious rate. In the U.S., our roads and bridges are crumbling and our mass transit is virtually non-existent.
If anyone thinks that the U.S. has an edge in Intellectual Property, guess again. China has been turning out more PhDs and advanced degrees than the U.S., and it's not even close.
China is winning and the U.S. is losing. And one party is to blame - the party that doesn't support education, the party that only loves military expenditures, the party that is led by an authoritarian of our own.
729
@BigBlue Infrastructure and science have taken a backseat to social welfare spending . Meritocracy has taken a backseat to income equality.
15
@BigBlue
When I first came to Shenzhen to teach English in 2003, it had a population of about 10 million, from just a backwater fishing town on Hong Kong's northern border just 25 years earlier. Now it has 11 subway lines and 4 more scheduled to be completed this year. The trains are clean, quiet, cheap, and frequent. China will only become stronger with its infrastructure spending and emphasis on education and technology. Eventually it will have to become a democracy to avoid social unrest, as ordinary people become better educated, travel more, and will demand more freedom.
102
@qiaohan
There isn't going to be social unrest if the citizens have been raised to believe making a living is far more important than being politically active. It would take a lot for the citizens to turn on their government, and even if so, I'm sure many other countries would want to help because their economies are so heavily integrated that it would be in their interest to keep China stable. They've been planning this for a while, and now that the Western world is waking up, I think it might be too late.
34
The Federal Reserve board, along with Congress are leading us to economic decline. First, historically low interest rates has eliminated all incentive to save. Second, Congress is running a trillion plus annual deficit. These factors are driving mass consumption which will be paid for by future generations. Like global worming many leaders choose to look the other way as we borrow, spent and fail to save. These trends, along with Chinese plans for growth spell the demise U.S. economic and military preeminence.
3
The rise of China is not necessarily a bad thing. One does not need to see China through a singular dimension of democracy vs authoritarism. There is no need to manage China's rise, if anything, every country should learn how they can exploit China's rise to their own economic advantage. Certainly President Trump is doing the right thing to take a tougher line. The smart trick is to exploit the Chinese the way they have exploited the Americans since Nixon.
4
China has succeeded for millennia with this form of government. Historically China had an emperor and an army of mandarins that rose up in ranks through the imperial exam and merit. There is nothing to say that this form of government is better or worse than democracy. The main risks of centralized power is that once a benign ruler is gone, his successors may not be so benign and inevitably the empire collapses due to bad policies. However, we are not even in the first 100 years of universal suffrage and we are already showing cracks in society and governance.
3
The great majority of the Chinese population agree with their government.
Our western "democracies" have half the population unhappy most of the time.
The west constantly opposes their system of government but the people overwhelmingly support it.
Their system seems to be working for great majority and western opposition gets no traction.
7
This a thoughtful and well-researched piece based on a valuable historical perspective but I find the underlying premise of chauvinism and zero sum competitiveness misplaced. While US policy awards China has been driven by an Us vs Them mentality to maintain economic and political superiority, I don't perceive the Chinese to be primarily driven by overtaking the US as #1 in trade or other areas. I see these countries as being in different, non-competing positions on the arc of development: China is rapidly developing and will continue to do so while the US is floundering and slowly devolving. Anything else is political posturing.
7
the liberal democracies of the world have to realize that the effort to democratize china has failed. tiananmen square marked the turning point where it should have clear that the communist party was willing to massacre its citizens rather that give up power. the opening by nixon to china had a two fold purpose. first as a cold war strategy to isolate russia and move china away from its influence. as the first strategy seemed to be working the second, to move china away from its totalitarian communist political and economic system was implemented. by increasing the wealth of its citizens and creating a more capitalist oriented economy the theory was this would make china more democratic. this second strategy has completely failed and its failure has had the effect of reversing the success of the first as china and russia are renewing ties. the hold of the communist party in china has actually increased, and with the advent of modern surveillance technology is more intrusive than ever. much of china's new wealth is being used to increase the size and technological advantage of its military and to spread its influence world wide. we have until 2047 to tame the chinese beast. if we do not then once the chinese take over hong kong they will move on to taiwan, and their pernicious influence over asia, africa, new zealand and australia will be impossible to counter.
1
The US has been on a self destructive path for some time.
We have helped advance China's ascendancy while hastening our own decline. China manage to industrialize by promising Global Corporations cheap labor. Factories were moved from the US to China. They had no need to borrow funds to build those factories - the US gave them to China. In return China put a surplus rural population to work - raising their living standard - and industrialized its economy. The dollars it now made making 'stuff' sold back to the us were used to pay for mining companies in South America, long term energy contracts in Central Asia, farmland in Africa. China has become a major power in Africa, Asia and elsewhere, building infrastructure and securing loans with the natural resources of those nations.
China has modernized its military - it is no longer dependent on the sheer numbers it used in Korea. Avoiding the direct application of military force, China acts through proxies when it does take action.
3
Americans should be more worried about American disfunction than Chinese prowess, because eventually the total surveillance state will become a liability for China. David Leonhardt should visit some of the wealthy communities with excellent school systems on the East and West coasts. In these communities wealthy mainland Chinese are paying cash for homes and moving in their children (often with an extended family member). In doing so they are getting their money and their children out of China, where a person can be a millionaire one moment, and imprisoned the next, without trial, for crossing the government. The rule of law matters. Many Chinese recognize this, and they are leaving with their money and their families.
8
Totally agree with you. USA should not be so irrationally defensive when Chinese investing in USA's companies and properties. Like you say, they may buy up USA's companies and properties, they did it to bring money and jobs into USA. They also bring in more diverse culture and good work ethics.
1
@CK I dont agree with good work ethics. Working with some chinese managers is like working in a slave driven factory. There is a lot they need to learn about social etiquettes and being unbiased.
If China keeps advancing in AI and computer technology as they have been, we will be the ones stealing technology from them. We stole technology from Britain and, just like any other country that's behind, we will steal.
3
The biggest advantage China has over the US is pure size. America was exceptional because, mostly, we were just bigger than everybody else that mattered. Except now for China. The advantage of size shows up as scale -- scale to invest. Scale to screw up and still succeed. The US has had that enviable position for decades relative to European countries. The US is in denial about pure scale and demographics and vastly improving its investments in education, infrastructure and science. It's no longer good enough to just do it. We have do it much better than we have before and, indeed, we are totally failing. Like the Romans before us, we are getting dragged down into fights over zero sums. The English are exhibit A in self destruction and how long and far the fall will be.
4
China has focused on improving itself. The US has focused on international military interventions. If those trillions spent in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Africa etc had been spent domestically, we would truly have the shining city on the hill. It is still not too late to change course. 2020 is here.
71
@Daniel
Could not agree more. Military spending vs infrastructure and education spending.
8
@Daniel The PRC has been pursuing an arms buildup for a couple of decades now, and their budgets are not exactly published. So, questionable point on focus with that country.
As for the US, had a pretty low footprint in Syria, and still does in Africa. Afghanistan wasn't exactly a choice - not sure why people bring that one up as if the Twin Towers were never around? Otherwise the US got invited back into Iraq because DAESH became a real problem.
1
@Michael Dunne
I'm not going to judge here whether those expenditures made sense. I think the point here is that they happened and continued to happen. Military spending is a bit like health care spending- we all think more is better and we'll vote for folks who increase both as long as we don't get sent a bill. Everything has an opportunity cost- a dollar (or 500B/year) spent on defense is 500B that's not spent on early childhood ed, bullet trains, research to improve health and batteries. We the people through our leaders have made these decisions and we get to live with the consequences. If you believe we could not protect ourselves with any less military spending then it was $ well spent. I tend to believe we could have spent 100B less per year with no loss to our safety- other countries get by with <1/2 what we do in terms of % of GDP.
4
Mr. Leonhardt: Excellent summary on how America is enabling China.
However, I have a question: What is wrong with China becoming a true world power?
Let's look at how the US has played out its own Hegemony since WW II.
1. Invaded Korea where China easily pushed American troops back to the 38th parallel and stopped.
2. Invaded Vietnam, where Ho Chi Minh, with a bunch of teenagers, easily pushed American troops out.
3. Invaded Afghanistan, where the Taliban has easily prevailed every day since, while we have ensured a mass diaspora wrought by destruction.
4. Invaded Iraq based on the Weapons of Mass Destruction Lie, and, destroyed every old, beautiful city there creating yet another huge human diaspora...which has destabilized Europe.
In the meantime China is:
1. Establishing relationships by building infrastructure in many major countries. Not destroying infrastructure like us but building infrastructure.
2. Building high speed rail infrastructure within China to enable mass transportation of people and goods. Not hiways that will never be maintained properly like us.
3. Managing education for children so that, well, children can add, read, and are multilingual.
Sure, China is Authoritarian. Minority populations have challenges just like the minority populations in the USA.
I say: Maybe it will be good if China overtakes the US? More peaceful. More infrastructure. Less war. Less destruction.
How about you?
48
@Michael
Perhaps if Truman had followed General MacArthur's advice we would not have this problem today.But unfortunately we have no real leaders but just managers who act at the behest of their true bosses which are the big corporations. I just wish that MacArthur had prevailed and taken care of the problem before it grew to the menace that we face today
1
@Michael
There are plenty of studies which show authoritarian behavior in the short run can accomplish more than the disruptive-seeming chaos of democracy.
But in the long run... just take a look at Hong Kong, where the emphasis is not on building high speed rail but dismantling free speech. Also while recently in China, I overheard residents complaining about how the central authority was cutting stipend
It's not all apple pie and ice cream over there..
4
I don't believe anyone thinks it's all pie and ice cream in China BUT I do think most people would say the same about the states. We have failed to invest in our future - choosing short term profit over vision and the result is rampant health care problems, a failing education system that is remarkably out of touch with how children learn to love learning and at the same time failing to prepare them for the future, and a crumbling nearly third world infrastructure. I couldn't keep a straight face defending the "greatness of America".
6
American power will mean nothing if we don’t get our progress toward democracy back on track.
26
I keep thinking of the literal trillions that the U.S. has spent on illegal wars of choice and unwanted meddling in other countries, just since the year 2000.
It's not just the past twenty years, either. In my lifetime, the U.S. has fought the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the invasions of Grenada and Panama, and countless so-called peacekeeping missions in countries that were seen as disrespecting us.
Although a major talking point against Saddam Hussein in 2003 was that he went to war against his own people, the U.S. has actively supported brutal governments that repressed their own people and helped them put down justified uprisings in the name of "fighting Communism."
Meanwhile, China and other countries have spent their wealth improving their infrastructure and their quality of life.
This country reminds me of an old man who lived in one of my former neighborhoods. His slum of a house was surrounded by barbed wire festooned with threatening signs, and the yard was patrolled by aggressive dogs. We used to joke that he probably had machine gun turrets on the second floor.
But he was no less ridiculous than the U.S. with its deteriorating quality of life and ever-expanding military.
97
@Pdxtran Hyperbole is not constructive. Afghanistan wasn't an illegal war, nor the return to Iraq in 2014 (unless you are a fan/fanatic of DAESH).
And its not been trillions - that comes from pretty questionable Total Cost of Ownership approaches.
China and Russia have pursued arms buildups, with the latter engaging in that kind of activity for over two decades.
Otherwise, the Korean War and Gulf War were pretty legal and justified too. Not sure where the revisionist propaganda is coming from.
This Op-Ed is one of the most balanced analyses of China's rise on the pages of NY Times. There are three major issues in China that Leonhardt's Op-Ed provides a solid context.
First, Nanjing might be the best place to understand the big themes of modern Chinese history: from being the Sick Man of Asia to reclaiming their proper place. China is not seeking global domination but to be slotted into the global order that reflects their standing in the world. As the dominant power, the U.S. must get this right. The alternative for a constructive China is a destructive one. From Iran to North Korea, China's cooperation is essential.
Second, there is a great big race between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese Civil Society. The big question is: can the CCP evolve and grow its capacity to manage the Chinese population as that population becomes wealthier, more educated, and more global and cosmopolitan? How long will ordinary Chinese citizens tolerate their inability to choose the leaders of their government when they make free choices in other parts of their lives?
Third, China has already become a mature, capitalist economy. Even as U.S. is working out tariffs against Chinese imports, China is already a service-driven, consumption-based, high technology economy. The United States should not fear Chinese exports--rather, we need to focus on accessing the Chinese market. This means that we need to view China differently. Much like the CCP, we too must evolve.
47
@UC Graduate
Much of China's success has been because they have always demanded one-way trade deals for decades. They require companies to turn over intellectual property, or if that doesn't work, they simply steal it. The government subsidizes most of the industries etc. It's common knowledge that they don't play by the rules, and never intend to play by the rules, but everyone ignored these problems in order to gain access to their markets.
Trump bluntly has called them out on this, and things will never return to the old ways of doing business, regardless who occupies the White House. China will never agree to all of Trump's conditions in order for the tariffs and export bans to be removed, so the trade war will continue. U.S. companies will relocate manufacturing to other countries as quickly as possible. China will be considered as another Russia, in terms of trade and cooperation. China is our adversary.
17
@Jack Are you talking about the same China that manufactures the iPhone and is now home to Tesla’s second manufacturing facility? Without Chinese manufacturing, American companies could not function: and so, in your book, an essential partner is an adversary? The U.S. has used China as their manufacturer for the past three decades. Do Americans think that it is the proper place for China to be the cheap workshop for American capitalism forever and ever? Francis Cabot Lowell stole the design of the cotton loom (protected by patent) from London and he was a national hero. The trade surplus between the U.S. and China was orchestrated by Americans ourselves to bring China closer to capitalist “us” and away from the Soviet Communist “them.” We have succeed fabulously and now we view this as a problem. It is clear that Americans are seeking an enemy and, by God, we’re determined that China will become one. But, we should be careful what we wish for, Xi Jinping is a lot smarter than Donald Trump, Chinese people are more united behind Xi than Trump can ever imagine here in the U.S., and we are looking right in the eye of Trump’s reelection as he rides the anti-China hysteria back into the White House.
A nuanced understanding of China remains the blindspot of NY Times and its liberal left readers. Sinophobia remains one of the few things that unite Americans left and right. The rise of China pulled a billion people out of poverty—Americans are responsible for this. Have some grace.
8
@Jack : Why do you want to make an adversary of a country that will soon dominate us in every way? You can't keep 1.4 billion people down forever.
3
The subtitle is correct.
To stop stagnation we MUST actually WANT
to be great again. And that cannot done by even suggesting socialism. We must revert to having the government not waste money on losers. By losers I mean the people the Democrats solicit for their votes, especially poor people. The Democrats never propose to actually make them prosperous ... just dole, dole, reap votes, and dole some more.
150 years ago the government was still giving away a very valuable thing: land. It gave to those would could, and would, develop it. Today we do essentially nothing similar.
Its all private capitalism.
China does ... it gives opportunities and perks to those who develop it, and they get rich.
In terms of what we need, countering China's putative power, we NEED ti rich and super rich. We should want people like Leland Stanford and Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford , and Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos. These people actually create wealth. They use the wealth they use to create more. And remember even this: when they build even $100,000,000 houses and yachts, the money they spend goes in much extent to actual individual craftsmen: its not mass produced.
The cure is simple: re-elect Trump and send forward looking people (Republicans) to Congress. Listen to media who espouse MAGA. Generate policies that help our inner cities: i.e. support gentrification, and run out the poor and homeless ... get them to ... work on projects like repairing roads and opening new mines.
1
only Republicans are good for the Republic.
@Doug McDonald
FOX gibberish.
Neither tRump nor, from what you say, you would recognize greatness if you sat on it and got bitten for your effort.
"forward looking people (Republicans)" HA. Quick, point 'em out to us before they evaporate.
"Instead of building a coalition to manage its rise — including the Asian nations in China’s shadow — Trump is alienating allies. Instead of celebrating democracy as an alternative to Chinese authoritarianism, he is denigrating the rule of law at home and cozying up to dictators abroad."
Imagine where the US will be if Trump wins 4 more years.
China has been stealing scientific research and development from American universities for years and they have been slow to catch on.
We lived in China from 2005-2013. Earlier, I lived in China from 1989-1992. The China of 2013 was as different from the China of 2006 as 2006 was from 1992.
Many Westerners have heard the more or less standard greeting for Chinese, Ni hao - 你好, literally, your good (okay, happy, etc.) The common response is Hao, Ni na - good, you?
In 1989, in the country side, the greeting was still often, chi fan - 吃饭 - literally eat rice, meaning, have you eaten? If you've eaten, you're good. That was all but non-existent in 2006.
In 2010 or 2011, I read in the news that in the Chinese courts, when individual citizens, or groups, sued the government, they won about 35%+/-.
Two of the most powerful impacts on me, beyond the above, was how tenacious everyone we encountered was in negotiating down to the last .10% of a yuan (Chinese dollars), a little less than a US penny. Number two was it was not a transactional society, it was about relationships - 关系, guan xi.
At our own peril, we ignore this. The current president imagining he has a relationship- in the Chinese sense of such - good or otherwise, with President Xi after eating chocolate cake is beyond dangerous in understanding how we might develop guan xi with the Chinese leadership.
If we want a more equitable relationship with China, we need to work on relationships first, then make a deal, then figure out how to negotiate what'll actually work for both.
6
America should pay heed to the advice
of historian Paul Johnson who
reckoned that the superpower
militarily stretched decline. It is
becoming obvious that increasing
expenditure on military and neglect of
infrastructure, education and healthcare will lead to decline. No
one outside America is impressed
with polarised politics which make
it hard to accomplish much.The
soft power mostly accruing from
democracy has largely eroded due
to dysfunction. Election of Mr. Trump,
no one considers fir for the office
except 62 million voters, his strange
antics, bullying, unpredictability
and uncaring for the allies has
damaged the image of the country.
China despite its authoritarianism
at home may yield more influence
because it doesn't demand what they
should do unlike USA which uses coercion and bullying approach in foreign affairs. Countries are getting tired of sanctions abusing the dollar based financial system.Read the lead in the latest issue of the Economist.Social problems of suicide, overdose of opioid, substance abuse, alcoholism, gun violence, racism don't erode the soft power.
1
A majority of Americans believe military power makes a country a great power. The truth is the only true power is economic power. China has realized this and has spent the last 20 years building their path to economic power. Taking advantage of capitalist greed to steal and develop their own industries that now compete worldwide. This is the basic Econ 101 "guns or butter" theory. The US has chosen guns. The Chinese chose butter. We have been lead to believe that we are always under attack by some 2 bit country. Do you think the Chinese people get bombarded by major news networks that they need to fear a general in Iran or their neighbor Lil Kim. Our infrastructure is failing, our education system is failing except for the elites, and our mortality rate is rising. However in a crowded theater during the movie Captain Phillips the audience cheered loudly like at a football game when the Somali pirate stuck his head of the the rubber ducky rescue boat and faced about $3 billion in military might. Americans were so proud that we could capture that shoe less malnourished pirate.
7
Mr. Leonhardt, as do most Americans and certainly the current Administration, need to look further back than a decade to understand China. My first contact with China was in the early 1990s. At that time, China had little foreign exchange and real-world knowledge. They came to us and asked for advice on how to grow. Should they follow the U.S. example? I told them no, that they should follow the Japanese example. Remember when Japan was known for cheap radios? They made a lot of foreign exchange with those and moved up the development ladder. They decided to follow our advice. They went from buying second hand equipment because it was all they could afford to where they now buy only the best because they can afford it. Focus, dedication, eyes on the prize, not individually but as a nation. When was the last time the American population pulled together as a nation? Not in 2011, because that was more a knee jerk reaction to a horrible experience. I would say it was during Y2K. Shortly after that began the steady, public rise of the Investment Bankers, presaged by Mr. Milken. Now, every American, for themselves, wanted to be a millionaire, the heck with the nation. Americans eagerly sold and taught China and gave away our knowledge and industries. And so ... Trump. Don't blame China for our choices, learn from them now.
2
America has been stagnate since Japan beat the tar out the United States economical, 40 plus years ago.
Americans haven't understood a lot things for a very long time.
1
@Trina You seem to have missed the second half of the 1990s, when the US economy did quite well, and there was broad expansion benefiting many (industry, the middle class, etc.).
it was also the time when corporations broke from their long practice of recruiting, training and keeping employees for decades, usually until retirement. The economy was good for some but did little to support unions, provide decent heathcare, invest in education and pay living wages.
3
And yet there is a long queue of Chinese people looking for overseas passports as an escape route, and not many lining up in the opposite direction. Maybe deep down they know something we don’t...
3
Maybe your lists contain the wrong issues. China is trying to make its environment healthy, bring all of its people into some sort of middle-class economic existence, and remain an independent. fully sovereign state.
To do this it has to compete for resources and geographical positioning with other states that have had a head start and have managed to control of influence much of the world.
What is needed is an international order that looks to improve the lives of everyone while improving the global environment. We all need a changed mindset that moves from excessive production and consumption of things to a better social life for all.
In the age of Xi, Boris, and Trump this is hard to imagine. They are goons looking at things the wrong way and unwilling to understand the human condition.
Think of it -- parents just want their children to grow up safe and smart and happy. There are better ways to accomplish this than by continuing barbaric practices inherited from our past that justified inhumanity in the name of growth and innovation. Do we really need to talk to our light bulbs? Do we really need to buy bigger cars and buy them more frequently? Do we need home entrances that rise to the heavens and consume fossil fuels to heat and cool the sky?
Both China and the US (and others as well) should first get a handle on what we should become before we kill each other to become what we might dread.
7
Trump wants to keep immigrants out but instead the U.S. should let as many skilled immigrants in as it can, especially from China, because those folks will be helping the U.S. economy instead of China's. The worst day of the future will be when China's brightest no longer want to come to the U.S., and Trump is hastening the arrival of that day.
2
Chinese students studying in the U.S. seem to have an important edge. While many U.S. undergrads in college seem to resent and/or blow off homework or tests as getting in the way of their social life and sports, Chinese students in the same classrooms are diligent and appear to center their studies. For many U.S. students, being serious about studying is de-emphasized, starting before college. Serious students are seen in unflattering ways (e.g., bumper sticker: My kid beat up your honor student). If this represents students in each system, the U.S. education system has its work cut out.
For too long, politicians on both sides have played ideological football with the education system. Making sure the textbooks convey a certain ideology (Texas standards, conservatives) or centering self-esteem over content (liberals) have both been wasteful strategies, to give just two examples. Decrying the education system as corrupt (both conservatives and liberals) is not a winning strategy. Where the system is weak, we need to strengthen it, not denigrate it.
We need a new culture that centers challenge in learning and excellence. There's a precedent historically. How about a post-Sputnik type effort in education from both parties? Make sure our students are the best, as they once were. We have a common competitor, just like post-Sputnik.
7
The trade deal on agriculture could break WTO rules. Why does that matter?
The US has used its dominant position to push its subsided farm exports at the expense of other countries who also export agricultural products to China. And you haven't even noticed you have disadvantaged several of
your allies.
The America first tariffs already alienate your trading partners but you go on to push us out of the Chinese market and demand we buy non Chinese technology. As a trading partner you are worst than China.
And then you are surprised we don't obediantally fall in line with your policies?
2
Re: Evidence of Chinese shedding humility (which I never bought into and thought was fake and a display of contempt) and affecting swagger and strut. This is some mutated version of 'kiss above, kick below' characteristic of Chinese culture. You are not rich unless you have a Steinway piano in your cramped apartment.
I will bet a small fortune on the following wager: this portends China is about to overplay its hands, aim for something it cannot pull off because it vastly over-estimates its influence on other people outside its borders.
Why will they fail in influencing others? Because one thing China has not got is a culture that calls out to others, and has them wishing they were Chinese (for dramatic contrast, see American culture, or the British culture prior to WWII).
Instead of triggering fear and paranoia, I suspect this article might serve as fodder for the very clever mandarins in Foggy Bottom, as they figure out ways to help China overplay its hands.
1
Do not forget China's space program-seems to be as good as ESA and catching up to USA.
1
I believe what China says, basically, is :
"Democracy no longer works, our political model of co-opted meritocracy is better".
The chinese view the present economic mess in the West as the result of politicians pandering to the whims of a lazy and uneducated electorate seeking instant gratification, and no longer capable of taking a prudent long term view.
Of course modern democratic practice in the days of Mr Murdoch, TV soundbites, showbiz journalism, and reality show elections is mediocre at best. The chinese will have none of that stupidity. They prefer Sparta to Athens : power to the better few.
The problem with oligarchies, however, is that they tend to degenerate when fathers try to favour their scions over better outside candidates.
However the chinese have a better history at dealing with this. Chinese clans are large affairs : somewhere a competent nephew or grandson will be found.
Also they inherited the mandarinate system of anonymous nationwide examinations to identify and promote the best. Of course kids from privileged backgrounds will have a better chance to pass the exams, but at least the brilliant kids from the masses won't miss out. The local schoolteachers will see to it.
As long as the oligarchy is kept honest and competent and the brilliant elements from outside recruited in, I do not believe that the chinese masses will demand any "better" system.
3
I'm not denying we have awful systemic issues in the US. However, I don't see much in what you write that benefits the average Chinese.
I see a lot about corporations and the wealthy and the government, but what about regular people? Oh, a subway... so they can spend money somewhere other than where they live or work in a place they can't afford to be... we have plenty of that in the US.
An article yesterday in this very paper was about a young Chinese woman who died because as a child and young adult she'd starved herself so her BROTHERS could be educated. She was so poor she had to crowdfund her hospital stay. When she died she weighed 47 pounds and was 24 (i believe) years old.
Let's talk about people, shall we? After all, without people all of this is just nonsense.
1
@mj Let's not take an outlier story and use it to paint a broad stroke across the Chinese population. How many anorexics in America have died in hospitals who had access to healthcare and great health insurance? How many millions of American workers are struggling to work and commute long hours to pay for housing, food and childcare expenses while wondering if they can afford to cover their retirement or even an emergency? Let's talk about taking care of our people before we point fingers and turn our noses up at another country.
1
Every Trumpster should be required to read this column and the comments thereto. Maybe that would wake them up.
Often heard is the term "American exceptionalism" which is tossed about. Somehow, it has become broadly believed that Americans are inherently smarter, work harder, and generally "entitled".
Try voicing the opinion that this is nonsense and you will be shouted down in the public arena if not physically assaulted.
Americans have a level of insecurity about their place in the world as a people and nation that is consuming us.
Becoming a Great nation is a goal that has to be constantly strived for. Declaring ourselves a Great nation and declaring job done is a dead end.
5
You know, I notice a lot of columnists like you praising Trump’s tough stand against China. It is really the opposite. As soon as he withdrew from the trans Pacific Trade Pack, which he did just to spite Obama and with no desire to promote the best interests on the US, he weakened the US vis a vis China. But columnists like you proceed under the assumption that Trump cares about the best interests of the US which is, of course, a fallacy. He is only concerned with one thing: personally looking good. We heard the transcript of a phone conversation with the president of Mexico where he told him that he didn’t care if he paid for the wall or not he just wanted him to say he would so he would look like he won. We know that he didn’t care if Ukraine investigated the Bidens as long as they said they would. Now we see a trade deal where really nothing was accomplished that has no teeth and only lasts through 2021. Why? So Trump can act like a great deal maker and his sycophants can cheer. This man is worthless for this country and people who take him seriously only enable him.
9
I believe what China says, basically, is :
"Democracy no longer works, our political model of co-opted meritocracy is better".
The chinese view the present economic mess in the West as the result of politicians pandering to the whims of a lazy and uneducated electorate seeking instant gratification, and no longer capable of taking a prudent long term view.
Of course modern democratic practice in the days of Mr Murdoch, TV soundbites, showbiz journalism, and reality show elections is mediocre at best. The chinese will have none of that stupidity. They prefer Sparta to Athens : power to the better few.
The problem with oligarchies, however, is that they tend to degenerate when fathers try to favour their scions over better outside candidates.
However the chinese have a better history at dealing with this. Chinese clans are large affairs : somewhere a competent nephew or grandson will be found.
Also they inherited the mandarinate system of anonymous nationwide examinations to identify and promote the best. Of course kids from privileged backgrounds will have a better chance to pass the exams, but at least the brilliant kids from the masses won't miss out. The local schoolteachers will see to it.
As long as the oligarchy is kept honest and competent and the brilliant elements from outside recruited in, I do not believe that the chinese masses will demand any "better" system.
1
Never before in the history of the human race is so much information available to so many so readily.
And yet humans willfully choose ignorance.
3
Every dollar an American spends on Chinese goods strengthens China and weakens the US. Whenever you have a choice, do not buy Chinese.
We must move on from Reaganism. It has produced the stagnation in wages, living standards, infrastructure and education investment as well as caused havoc in the nations finances with its discredited supply side, trickle down nonsense.
Lets once again put in charge people who believe in good governance.
These republicans create the dumpster fire then pretend they had nothing to with its creation.
5
On target analysis.
The risk of democracy turning into kekocracy and bankrupting populism is all to evident here.
And to think that we depend on a Republican Senate to save our institutions.....
1
China is a dystopian nightmare; its economic success makes it all the more so. There's very little to praise or envy there. In fact, what Americans must recognize is the Communist Party, as the world's largest, most powerful dictatorship, and authoritarianism worldwide are the biggest global threat the world faces, along with climate change. Mr Leonhardt is certainly right to emphasize that in terms of competition between the US and China, the US is its own worst enemy, and what the US needs to focus on is getting its own house in order, something that can only be accomplished of Americans have the clear-sightedness and will to elect a Democratic president and Congress. But it's also important that Americans recognize a CCP-ruled China as the global threat it is, inimical to basic universal values of democracy, human rights and freedom, and this means also that at home and abroad, the US government has to emphasize and promote those values. In turn, this means the government and Americans in general have to look up and gain a greater global perspective. The US, for being the center of the world, can seem a very provincial place at times, with a penchant for navel-gazing, the fixation on Trump being the most recent example of this. Trump is a symptom, not the disease itself. The disease is in the body politic. Put that right and there's no question but that the US will 'out-perform' China, which actually now has many more problems than this article suggests.
When your reason to vote for a candidate is to "shake things up" or "blow things up," you deserve exactly what you're going to get: Trump.
Also, the cognitive dissonance of the American voter is astounding: you're installing an elite billionaire to blow up the elites in Washington. Mhm. Makes total sense.
3
David, if you believe the Chinese government's claims of 7-10 annual growth in the economy, every year, for decades, I have a bridge from Hong Kong to Zhuhai to sell to you. People who know China knows those figures are made up.
1
It IS preordained. China will leave America in the dust. No question whatsoever.
Because a society that invests in education, science, infrastructure, and its own people will ALWAYS eclipse a society that spits on teachers, women, the poor, and expert knowledge while spending its resources killing and being killed in deserts on the other side of the world.
6
China is about 5 or 6 times bigger than us. And, they can imprison anyone, like Muslims, they see as a threat. And, they can make prisoners work like slaves to produce product. And, they can pay slave wages (worse than ours) to 'citizens' that are employed.
How do I know that corruption is world-wide? Well, I would say that billionaires are an example of economic corruption and I see them in the US, in China, in Russia, in India, etc. Greed, lust for mammon, love of lucre is a human desire, sin, sickness.
Americans, and most of the world, are really terrible at citizenship. We are so self-centered, so self-concerned, that we can't comprehend a society of equals, of honor, of compassion.
China will eat our lunch because we don't care. China will take over Africa and Southeast Asia and Australia and everywhere else because we are the worst at being noble human beings. Money is truth, power, religion.
It's really not China; it's the absence of morality, soul, spirit, honor , compassion, love and honor.
Human beings must evolve, grow-up, actualize. We are destroying the sacred planet and each other; due mostly to selfish greed.
Love. Be good. Fight the wickedness and corruption and ignorant, lazy citizens that surround us.
6
The "long memory" of the Chinese is a power unto it's own. They learn by understanding history. America is all about self...and how "I" get ahead.
2
What is the racial diversity in China?
Perhaps our government could establish large re-education camps to better manage feral children, substandard unemployed citizens, and all students who are lazy and have cognitive impairments. The “students” of all ages would build the re-education camps in order to insure costs are kept to a minimum.
Facial recognition surveillance would be in effect 24/7.
We of course would also electronically track eye movements in re-education classes and thus be able to use appropriate and immediate active measures (let’s say, I don’t know, electric shock of increasing magnitude) when students stop paying attention to the instructor or stop reading material presented.
This seems a valid alternative for moving America forward, and clean up our cities.
2
China, for all its faults, is seeking a new glory for the country. The United States, for all its faults, is in many respects is sitting on, even sabotaging its past glories.
China thinks and plans time periods way longer then that! Go back to WWII to understand Mao's ideas of strategic retreat, add that to Sun Zi and then add yet in on top of that what role the study of history plays in formulating long term goals. This is just one sub set of concepts that most US Americans have no clue about.
3
We have a president who obsesses over old style light bulbs, toilets, and appliances. In the meantime, we have and continue to lose ground in all fields. This was not the time to be looking backwards. Only our competitors and enemies rejoice at the undoing of America.
2
If Americans could see the threat that China poses to us in leadership in green power, we could engage in a race to prevent this from happening. Our panic over Sputnik I motivated us to a very productive space race with the Soviet Union, which we won. The main problem today is that China's lead in green energy has crept up on us rather than bursting as a bombshell.
See further analysis:
"U.S. Must Rise To The Occasion of Energy Race With China"
https://www.newsmax.com/paulfdelespinasse/photovoltaic-wind-buffett/2020/01/07/id/948720/
1
If Bill Clinton were running today he would probably say, "It's all about education and infrastructure, stupid." And his statement would be right on the mark.
China's leaders said that in 2010. They were then, and are still, right on the mark too.
During the past decade there were more Chinese university students studying English than there were American university students. China is building an infrastructure for modern industry and commerce. The most significant US infrastructure projects during the past twenty years have been building the port facilities needed to unload cargoes from China.
US trade negotiation has focused on creating conditions favorable to off-shoring manufacturing operations and protecting corporate capital investment in China and other countries. The result has been to hollow out the American economy.
We no longer have the infrastructure, the well trained workforce and the industrial base needed to support defense. Our allies can see this just as clearly as China.
1
I look at it this way. China historical has been a great power for far longer than the United States has been in existence. This is a fact. But another fact is China's historical tendency towards....for lack of a better way of saying this....a navel - read here belly button - gazing power.
By this I mean that the Middle Kingdom sees itself as the center of all things and, as a consequence, tends to develop an inward focus. Being arguably the inventor of the Bureaucratic State, a highly centralized top-down, governing style, it has always tended to limit their ability, indeed their desire, to pursue the more exploratory and aggressive strategies of the West. The structure has been a strength, and a flaw.
And while they may evince differences from their earlier incarnations even so, underneath the Kabuki mask of the CCP this is still their essence today. They are still a top-down extremely hierarchical society. Xi's defacto claim to the role of Emperor in the form of ruler for life is the proof of this.
And for them this might be okay. It's a system that's worked for well on two thousand years; so why fix something that clearly isn't broken? This might be their societal viewpoint.
But how they will fit themselves within the context of the modern economic system will be interesting to see. If nothing else America now has a competitor worthy of consideration. And to address it she certainly needs to get her house in order.
John~
American Net'Zen
1
Reducing inequality.
That is the Graves challenge in America. Why, Racism!
China is more of a monolithic authoritarian society, while America is a society full of different ethnic groups from around the world. (that could be America's greatest strength)
However, America for too long only saw itself as a white male dominated society, not recognizing and providing true equality to the other ethnicities and women for their capable contributions.
The role Racism has played in our society is staggering! Destroying for centuries what so many of it's citizens could have contributed, produced and created, leaving it to only one group that has to be white to succeed.
The time for equality has come and has been neglected/rejected in America, simply because of Greed, and an unwillingness to recognizing the great potential that has always existed in the "Other" people of the society.
1
Forced labor, organ harvesting and full authoritarian surveillance; China cannot be trusted.
1
The US has hollowed out in the middle paying for endless wars.
1
Most important: in the ending decade China hasn't spent billions on two wars - Iraq and Afganistan - that both were lost. Instead the government invested in infrastructre, like that high speed train mentioned in the story. For the 880 Billion Dollars spent in Iraq alone the U.S. could easily have built a nationwide highspeed train network. Instead the trip between Washington and New York Penn Station still takes a stagering 2:55hrs.
1
China looks long. We now look backwards to the 1950s, as is evidenced by our President.
2
Personally, I think that the government of the United States is a second-rate organization. A college education is exorbitantly expensive and the government offers little or no assistance in that regard. Infrastructure and transportation are sorely lacking. A small number of oligarchs control a majority of the wealth in the country and the recent tax cut for the wealthy simply added to that problem. This country needs more intelligent leadership than that offered by Trump and the Republicans. In the not too distant past, the Chinese were paupers in comparison to the Americans. That has all changed.
2
An excellent article although I don't entirety buy the premise that China's rise is a direct result of America's stagnation as if the Chinese themselves don't have the imagination or will to grasp their own future. This economic miracle comes about through careful planning by the Chinese leadership and efficient though sometime brutal implementation with no dissent or regard for long term consequences (ie, environmental degradation and health risks), with vital foreign direct investment led by US inc. China benefits from the misguided Western notion---promoted by the same Neocon luminaries like Kissinger who architect the thaw--that an opened market will inevitably transition authoritarian regimes like the USSR, Vietnam and China into responsible democratic members of US centric orbits in the guises of IMF, World Bank and US$. And once the Chinese got American inc. hooks on the alluring, mythical Sangri La market that hypnotized Marco Polo and countless of other traders, they employ the trial and true classical Chinese methods of stroking Western execs egos and greed into divulging secrets.The Chinese mindset is that technology, ? based on science and entrepreneur innovation second nature to any Chinese since ancient time, is what elevates the West and hobbles China in the Century of Humiliation. Inward isolationism, first brought on by the conservative Qin imperial rule and later Mao's Cultural Revolution, exacerbates illiteracy, poverty and internal strife. Sound familiar?
1
The U.S. puts profits ahead of progress. Government functions to serve and reward the 1% over the 99%. This was a country that was built on American exceptionalism. Now it's a country that is assessed by the strength of its stock market. The health of shareholders is more important than the health of the people. We would rather spend money on weapons that destroy than on projects and programs that preserve, protect and improve quality of life. I could go on.
7
"China’s military has also become stronger." Mr. Leonhardt does not elaborate at all on this assertion. When did we ever see China use its vast military complex and sophisticated technolgies to engage in endless wars like the U.S. in the Middle East which have cost not only thousands of lives but trillions of dollars. China is indeed a "sleeping giant" with immense power to change the geopolitical landscape of the entire world in this century.
3
Two important metrics about China in the context of this article.
Since I first visited China in 2001:
1) there is a true and powerful middle class now in China.
2) wage income has grown >1000% in less than 20 years
3) China moved from a largely subsistence economy to a consumer driven economy and is now moving quickly toward a service based economy.
4) China has become the second largest economy in the world and continues to grow at a rapid pace.
On the flip side:
1) Labor costs in China today dictate that corporations are now moving operations away from China and into lower cost emerging economies elsewhere in China.
2) China's consumers are now rapidly embracing consumer credit and debt.. and stepping away from traditionally high personal savings rates.
Chinas economy and society are following almost exactly the same path as the US economy did over the last two centuries.. it's just that China is moving at 5X the speed of advancement. What took the US 2 centuries to do.. China will do in 4 decades.
8
China is literally following the same growth path that the US did in the 19th and 20th century. It is just that it is doing so at an accelerated pace compared to the US.
China literally went from a backward economic society with literally no middle class.... to a full blown broad ranging society with a large and influential middle class in the span of 30 years.
And the rest of the world benefited by this rapid expansion in China.... as it gave a large labor pool for world wide corporations, followed by the largest consumer society on the planet.. all in the time span of one generation.
5
The US is loosing because half of our population believes that self interest is all that matters. If there's a way to game the system in this pursuit, they will do it; but our strength has always resulted from a respect of democracy.
1
@Al
"but our strength has always resulted from a respect of democracy"
A dose of reality and history is in order: Native Americans, Slavery, South America, Latin America, Asia, S.E. Asia, Middle East and last but not least, the reign of Donald Trump.
1
China is simply doing what every powerful nation in history has done: expand its own self-interest as much as possible. In China's case, it is unhampered by several inconveniences such as democracy or any sense of responsibility to other countries (not that the U.S. under Trump exhibits any such sense, but it used to). The U.S. is only threatened by China insofar as the U.S. is destroying its own integrity and values. And it's doing one of the best jobs in history at self-implosion. Pogo was right. The enemy is us.
5
Very cool and not at all problematic to refer to the "dissent" in Xinjiang and Tibet as one of China's "challenges," rather than as a situation defined by active, ongoing cultural genocide and mass internment.
4
@chris
Careful with throwing stones inside a glass house here.
The US largely paved the modern world with cultural genocide.. both domestic and international. In that regard, the US has been a role model to China.
And speaking of role models.. Chinese society very much follows and embraces US society... sees it as a role model in many things as China advances into growing first world status.
4
I’d say throw as many stones as possible.
We shouldn’t give China a pass on cultural genocide just because our ancestors did the same thing.
two observations: democracy is a part of our problem, not just in the individuals we elect, but also the unwillingness of so many to fund needed programs such as public higher education, infrastructure, pubic transit because we rather have lower taxes for now, or inconvenience ourselves in any way to combat climate change, homelessness, plus public support for the bipartisan unwillingness to take on the excessive weapons and military spending that drains resources from everything else; as for China's lack of population growth, perhaps that will be a blessing as food insecurity grows with climate change and overall population still growing rapidly in the world stressing resources
4
Nice work, Mr. Leonhardt. I lived in or on the edge of China for 26 years. Your points on China's increasing investments in education, science, and infrastructure are on target. These investments are in stark contrast, as you point out, to the situation in USA. And, as you note, these investments are the foundation for future increase in quality of life. China will reap the rewards from their investment while we stagnate until we reverse our anti-education, anti-science, and, as Paul Krugman noted, anti-children policies.
11
How can the US stay ahead of China?
Introduce universal health care, improve state schools and establish debt-free university education.
The US is much smaller than China and, in the long run, cannot afford to have a huge pool of untapped talent.
3
president Obama started the tilt to asia. he prepared to outdo China through the tpp, which would further stimulate productivity in the us. Leonard foolishly underplays these facts, while he is correct that trump has accomplished little or nothing with his contretemps. Leonard is also wrong in assessing Chinese economic prowress. either state capitalism works better than free markets, or it doesnt. both sides have staked their bets. may the best man win.
The premise of "power" in this article is based upon guns & money...I agree with the fact China is on an upward trajectory and it alarms me for some of, but also different reasons. You see, I also happen to think we need to stop making comparisons based on a power framework that doesn't include quality of human and planetary life. And with only a small percentage of humans benefiting from the power structures we have previously worshipped...and with the planet suffering as much, if not more, than humanity...I think we need a new set of goals. A new way of evaluating our position in the universe. (Many would say these more mercenary and gonzo goals are the folly of Men. I'm not that sure it's all the fault of the Masculine Psyche. But that's a discussion for another article.)
7
I have to disagree with David Leonhardt's central assertion. Even if America wasn't stagnating, China would still be an ascending economic power.
Here's why; China's biggest advantage isn't American stagnation, it's the fact it's the largest consumer market on the entire planet. Every company that has any aspirations of being a global powerhouse in their respective industry MUST have a presence in China. That gives China tremendous leverage which is why companies are willing to concede technical knowledge, or even ignore whatever values they may have about free speech, or human rights.
The second advantage is China's authoritarian government doesn't tolerate a lot of dissent. When it comes to plans to implement national policy or government programs once something is decided it gets done. There is no partisan bickering or horse trading. That's why the country is able to implement high speed rail, and highway, bridge, and tunnel projects with breakneck speed. If one looks at a list of infrastructure in terms of the longest bridges and tunnels, a significant number of those projects are Chinese and they have been done in the last 20 years. In America we can't even decide what needs to be done or how to do it.
9
I like the implication that we should be more concerned about shaping our own destiny. Good article.
5
1. Rectify income inequality through taxation, fair wages, education. Eliminate poverty.
2. Fund education like your lives depend on it. (What's with Trump and the scientific community?)
3. Fix the infrastructure. Clean up the mess.
4. Look to solar, wind and water power as the key to the future. (Coal is dead. Gas will be next.) It is cheaper in the long run, and getting much cheaper in the short run.
5. End corruption. Maybe this should be number 1. This also means create a universal health care system... cradle to grave. (It's way cheaper than the current shell game.)
6. Ease up on the military a bit. If you're doing things right, you don't need to fight all the time.
20
In business school we’re taught that products have a life cycle. Similarly it is common knowledge that companies have a life cycle.
Any student of history can tell you that empires (countries close parentheses rise and fall. Another way to put it is that countries have a life cycle.
I cite examples of countries/empires whose profile has waned: Egypt, Rome, and Greece. More recently Austria, formerly the Austro Hungarian empire; England, formerly great Britain; etc.
China, which dominated much of the globe multiple millennia ago, rises again. The United States of America, which dominated much of the globe for the last 70 years is fading.
Our dogma has touted democracy and capitalism as the best societal and government system. Yet despite all of our advantages, the data shows that the jury is still out.
10
I am old enough to remember when people were saying similar things about Japan overtaking the US. China's rise is an extraordinary accomplishment but I remain skeptical that the transition from an assembly economy based on cheap labor to a mature knowledge economy can be successfully directed by the state. I guess we'll see.
2
@John Murphy True. But China is on another level to Japan in the 86-92 (assuming you are referring to that), most importantly in terms of its massive size and population and its single-minded focus to once again become the world's superpower. If you are referring to post-WWII Japan, Japan had no such ambition, which was relinquished with its defeat in WWII. The energy one feels in modern China is immediately palpable and startling to anyone familiar with it. Unfortunately, the optimism in the 2000s has given way to an increasingly totalitarian state. But this has not put a dapper on the confidence and almost arrogance of the Chinese people to be number one.
8
One of the best articles I have read in years.
Very good effort.
In 2050 China will be the biggest economy in the world.
China is not bogged down with religious fanatics or nationalist extremists like the United States.
The United States' downfall will be these two groups who view the world as something to dominate socially.
China is pure pragmatic economics.
Every Chinese leader has a copy of Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations.
The Chinese practice capitalism better than the so-called democratic nations of the world.
And, lastly, of course, Trump makes the Chinese look more like...well...the United States: forget human rights altogether.
10
@Tommy Obeso Jr China economic momentum will surpass the US within THIS decade even with major headwinds such as US restrictions and Chinese debts and decrased consumption. Like the US, China is a continental size country with incredibly ethnic, religious and cultural diversity, which can be daunting to manage, from the current attacks and crackdowns of its Muslim Uighurs in the northwest to the simmering tension in Tibet in the southwest to open rebellion in HK in the East. That doesn't even taking the increasing gripes among the majority ethnic Han Chinese over rural migrant workers rights, runaway housing costs, pollutions and most importantly corruption. Externally, the country is at odds diplomatically with most of its neighbors (India, Japan, S.Korea, Vietnam, Phillipines, etc.) over recent Chinese border expansions except peaceful democracies like N.Korea, Myanmar and Russia. While China sits on top a mountain of currency reserve the largest in human history, shadows bankings and other hyper leveragings of asset and capital permeate underneath and threatens to shake loose the house of cards.
2
Thanks for an insightful and thoughtful essay on China's rise and America's decline over the past decade. Pretty much spot on. But I think it's be a mistake for focus on the decline of American power. Rather we should focus on improving America, in particular making the American economy work for most, ideally all, Americans rather than for a few billionaires. Most of our current woes derive from the wrong turns taken under Reagan in terms of unionization, taxation, government subsidy of business, cuts in science and education funding, the phase out of heath care and pension benefits, deregulation, privatization anti-trust, and numerous other political policy choices. None of these are market forces but rather are political choices. At a remove of 40 years from Reagan we need to ask ourselves how these political choices have worked out for America and for almost all Americans and their families. The unavoidable answer is disastrously so let's reverse and change course. The magic sauce of America's mixed capitalist economy has always been the initiative, willingness to work hard and take reasonable risks and community spirit of the American people. We can't compete with China's top down elite directed control of the entire economy nor should we want to. Reinvigorate America's economy and the relative power balance will resolve itself. Continue on our current course and it won't be long before our economy will be unable to support American power projection.
5
I've lived in the U.S. for over 71 years. And loved it. But I've watched schools worsen. Bridges degrade. Cities smother its citizens in traffic, segregated poverty, and high-rise multi-millionaires' projects. Strip malls proliferate. Guns outweigh butter. And profits beat up people.
Technology has zoomed ahead, but tainted by devastation to privacy and social regard. Innovation driven by profit benefits a few, but many are left behind.
I haven't been to China, nor have a desire to visit. And, yes, all countries have problems, most worse than those in the U.S. And it was comi-tragedy listening to Trump talk about a commitment to the country's infrastructure, knowing his obsession was "building the wall" to keep out immigrants.
It's almost as though we've quit trying. The "me generation" I grew up in is now the selfie generation -- ironically, with another old baby boomer as its most self-centered illustration leading the country into greater mediocrity.
Make America Great Again -- he didn't even try.
8
US leadership has ignored China for two decades, not realizing the true cost. Politicians only get concerned about manufacturing when we are gone. Can it be reversed? A new trade deal is a start.
That’s a really big deal, the USMCA is an even bigger deal as Mexico and Canada are our biggest trading partners. Many said it couldn’t be done
And what is the media talking about? Some guy named Parnas and the GAO, an agency they mostly ignore.
1
“We have the confidence, patience and resolve to realize our goal of great national rejuvenation," says Wang Qishan, China's vice president.
This says it all. America is no match for China, in the long run, unless our "do nothing" Congress starts to put country first and "do something".
And who elects Congress? We all do and we're all guilty of America's potential decline. We all don't have the resolve.
5
MAGA and America First mean only one thing, a decline of America as it gives up it’s position of leadership in both the political and economic realms of the world. Greed, fear and hate have gripped the United States. We have disdain for our allies and turn our back on our principles of an open and welcoming society. As mentioned, we no longer make the investments to secure our future. We starve the government of the resources necessary to ensure our growth. Government is a social contract among a nation’s citizens to benefit all, rich and poor. That social contract is broken in today’s America, and without it’s reinvigoration, the nation is doomed to a continuous disintegration of it’s power and morals. To ensure we as a nation remain “the city on the hill” we must work together so all it’s citizens can contribute and benefit equally.
5
I find the economic race concept unhelpful. I don't think the Chinese are trying to "overtake us" as much as they are trying to create a "great" nation for its people. In our country, we are only working to benefit the corporations and 1% who own our current government. We aren't working to create a "great society." The question is how do we once again start creating a government that works for everyone here, not how can we compete with China. It is an internal rather than an external struggle, except that someone like Putin benefits from a government whose foreign policy he seems to be influencing. Our divisions have left us without a coherent vision for our future here or abroad. Russia & China have leaders who will outlast Trump, and we have empty sloganeering, a marketing campaign with no correlation to most Americans experience or concern for their future.
13
@Uofcenglish Have you been to China? One cannot avoid noticing an expressed obsession "to be number one," from the students all the way up to the party members. While it is true most Chinese people don't bother themselves with politics--thinking they have very little power to effect change--the Chinese people are indeed caught up in the rhetoric to once again dominate the world and to be first at everything. Their history books are totally biased towards identifying the origins of all things civilized to China, which in some cases is not without merit. But the recent hypothesis pushed by scholars that English is derived from Mandarin, for example, is a measure of China's capacity for blind hubris.
What this article gets right is China's government is much more effective, for better or worse, at getting things done. It has a single-minded focus to win at all costs, which is reflected in the mentality of the people whose minds have been shaped by relentless propaganda and massive efforts to erase traces of foreign influence in the mainland. The government has recently ordered hotels and businesses with foreign names to use Chinese names instead. The foreign bar and shopping district in Beijing, Sanlitun, is in the process of being purged.
As Graham Allison put it in the Atlantic, China demonstrates an "unbounded aspiration" that is "driven by an indomitable determination to reclaim past greatness." The superlatives here description accurately capture the spirit of China.
4
@Uofcenglish
"I find the economic race concept unhelpful. I don't think the Chinese are trying to "overtake us" as much as they are trying to create a "great" nation for its people."
You are deluding yourself. China's initiatives in Africa, Central Asia, their military aggression in the South China Sea, and efforts to apply economic pressure to other countries and foreign businesses in China, are all about establish dominance.
1
@BP I have been there, and my son is an expert on the region who speaks fluent mandarin and has lived in and traveled throughout China extensively.
China has been investing in education, infrastructure, growth of their economy. The US has been investing in war. Nuff said.
4
Great article -- but without mention of China's expansion into Africa.
60
@aksantacruz It's interesting the note that the Chinese are, if not always, then for the most part, welcomed into Africa. The authoritarian leaders understandably prefer them because they'd just keep it to business only and don't try to change the political system but I was surprised to learn that the general population has a good attitudes towards China as well. They think the Chinese understand and empathize with colonialism in a way that Westerners don't and are interested in mutually beneficial deals that don't take wealth away from the country but invest it locally.
Whether or not it's true I don't know; I assume that like most things, it's a mixed bag. There are videos of Chinese managers disrespecting their Nigerian employees but there are also stories and pictures of developed architecture, increased exports, more businesses and foreign investment, etc.
7
@aksantacruz exactly. Special entrance gate for African-China "partnership" members at airport customs, and Nigerians everywhere in Beijing. To leave out China's imperialism and genocide makes this article hollow.
@aksantacruz - and what of it? The white man has raped and pillaged Africa for centuries. China's now just doing what's good for China and some tinpot dictators currently in Africa Country X gets the windfall while he/she is in power. Win-win.
1
Not a word in this article about the absolutely monumental environmental problems China is facing and the things they are doing to try to address them. Not a word here about working conditions and access to quality health care; not a word about a lax regulatory environment that sees poisonous foods leaching into consumers' food-baskets more often than acceptable; not a word about the corruption that permeates so many aspects of life there. This is a very half-baked appreciation of the the issues facing China notwithstanding the tremendous growth and progress it has made in so many areas.
4
@Mark - those are problems of rapid development which will pass. We however are turning backward allowing more pollution and lower standards for working conditions and stagnant wages. We also have poisons in our food and water supplies.
3
@Mark Unfortunately, a lot of what you describe can also be applied to the United States. Trump is relaxing environmental regulations as we speak. He is trying to dismantle the ACA and has no plan to replace it. Working conditions at Amazon.com warehouses are atrocious. Corruption is rampant in Trump's swamp and in corporate America (I consider the fact that multibillion dollar corporations pay almost nothing in income tax to be a legalized form of corruption due to the efforts of their paid lobbyists).
The main idea of Leonhardt's article is that the Chinese government has been successful in investing in the development of their economy and infrastructure, and the American government has made little improvement. Their subway and train systems are perfect examples of where America has been left in their dust. America can do better, but we need better political leadership that is willing to do the hard work and make the difficult decisions to help the country move forward.
2
China is part of the reason we are a country experiencing paranoia. We are no longer the last major country standing after World War II. We are no longer the sole "king of the hill" called earth.
This paranoia is a significant part of the reason for Trump's election. Many in America are hoping, against the odds, that he can restore are dominance. It is not going to happen and the sooner we accept this fact the better off we will be.
7
Mr. Leonhardt writes an insightful piece. From the American perspective. In twenty years, or less, China will be the undisputed heavyweight champ of the world. It doesn't matter what America wants. It has less than a fith of the population of China. And the planet doesn't hate the Chinese.
Instead of making specious comments about cultural/political relativity, (for instance, the US imprisons more citizens than China, and has children in concentration camps), a less subjective tone might be more helpful.
Now-aday's the Chinese innovate, and the US copies, especially in consumer goods, energy, infrastructure and transportation. How does it help an American citizen to be told they have an emerging competitor, when the game is actually over, and the US should be figuring out how to be a good member of planet earth, in a world dominated by China's massive economy (already larger than the US).
Failure to adapt is a sign a society has run its course. That time has had it's say. Americans should not take this as an opportunity to re-load, but perhaps get into a different game.
11
Over and over again I am stuck by what I see as the biggest difference between China and the US. They have a shared national vision of where they want to go and they think in terms of decades.
In the US we have no national vision, some companies to, perhaps a few sectors, but no unifying vision, we are like cats, each going our own way. Lastly, we think in quarters. We only worry about what is going to happen 3 months out or even shorter, this month's numbers.
If this trend continues, China will blow by us and not even look back.
20
We need to invest in education, scientific research, and infrastructure. Sadly, we seem to have forgotten what's required for success over the long term.
5
I don’t begrudge the Chinese for making their country great again. But I find it unendingly frustrating that America did not in the preceding decade address it’s own issues on the list. Nor do we seem poised to do it. Shame on us for squandering time and the potential it held.
7
We could use a dose of Chinese optimism and enthusiasm. They’d be a tricky ally to cooperate with but it’d be better than driving them into Putin’s arms.
3
My upshot here tries to balance the economic tides of greed affected by political weather. Freedoms of U.S. business structures allows for the Trumpian attitudes while China is still restrained by its governmental platitudes. As China begins to climb the mountain we are sliding into a swamp.
1
A lot of people in the comments suggesting trickle down economics is the reason ‘America is poor’.
Except USA has like 4th highest National MEDIAN income In the world. With a population of 350 million people.
No, Germans are not richer than Americans on average. Nor Canadians or Swedes or japan or South Korea. But leftists try to make the argument that we must adopt their economy
@Garrett , Income distribution
is the problem. Almost half the
population 175Million are barely
getting by. A recession and many
of them will be in difficulty.
2
For most of the past 2200 years China has been a socioeconomic political educational demographic diplomatic military scientific and technological superpower.
Ruling with the Mandate of Heaven from the Central/ Middle Kingdom.
America not so long nor well.
2
China is taking advantage of our achilles heel: our businesses are addicted to growth, and will pursue profit at any cost. To the detriment of our country.
7
David Leonhardt, you are absolutely right. When I visit China's shining cities, it largest population centers, we see progress, and new, much more current infrastructure, we see forward thinking technology, and they have taken much of what America "invented" and made it newer, better.
Of course their farmers are still poor...but...that is true in much of the world. America's infrastructure, technology, business systems, schools, communications....have been copied and made better in China, Japan, parts of India and other places.
We need politicians that embrace and encourage science, education and new technologies, not to seem to want to politicise "science and education", punish them or chase them out. I notice our leading edge "Tesla" car is now manufacturing in China...wow. China, taking our best, and watch, they will copy and try to make one better.
How about incentivising the young bright minds of the USA, reinvest in science and higher education and give them encouragement to "start rebuilding America" before politicians completely cripple our nation internationally.
Keep up the insightful writing.
Ben Boothe, Sr.
From high on a mountain where the view is clear, far away from "Foggy Bottom" of the Potomac.
4
I am beginning to think that autocracy is more successful in helping its people than a divided democracy.
5
I didn't have to read the story to know you are correct. May I recommend,
"The Industrial Revolution", By: Patrick N. Allitt,
The Great Courses: Modern History, Narrated by: Patrick N. Allitt Length: 18 hrs and 11 mins, on Audible.
It is how the Industrial Revolution(IR) started in England. He details how it grew in England and Europe and how it supersized once it came to America. The short answer is, the IR grew to fill England and her Common Wealth. However, it could not grow forever.
When the technology moved to the Colonies(US), it grew, evolved and grew more. You can summarize the IR in America like this; Invent. Improve. Replace.
Like America, China can build on the earlier lessons learned.
The number of familes that get out of poverty is the machine that matters and the near future of poverty elimination. What about the massive number of STEM graduates overshowing the entire world fueling innovation and invention.
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost the US over $2 trillion over the past 17 years. Imagine if that money had been used towards education, infrastructure and all the other things Mr. Leonhardt mentions. And what do we have to show for it all?
7
According to the I Ching, stagnation is overcome by a storm that clears the air and the extreme tension. The difficulty will be resolved.
I suspect that China likes to avoid stagnation and storms as it has had a much longer history than us. This may be a reason for its patience and its form of profit taking.
Or, as one Robert Zimmerman, a former resident of Hibbing, Minnesota said: " You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
47
@Mark Dobias Your observation makes sense.
Time does seem to be on the side of those who know how to use change for improvement and how to avoid being changed by circumstances.
Too many in America, from government to industry, only know how to make change from a dollar and that is small change.
1
The US should have an active policy of dismembering China, supporting independence for Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. We should also recognize Taiwan and be more aggressive countering Chinese island building in the South China Sea. China is an enemy to be broken. Unfortunately, being nationalistic is no longer in vogue here, but it certainly is in China.
1
@QED
You policy positions are just wrong. The United States needs to get out of the business of trying to dictate what should happen in other countries. It did us no good in Viet Nam and it's not doing us any good in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We need to focus on improving America.
2
@QED And how would you know that nationalism is in vogue in China? Do you speak Chinese? Have you lived and studied there prior to our own recent "trade war"? This has not been our actual experience of China and Chinese people at all. I would agree that we should support the rightful independence of Hong Kong, Tibet, etc. But I find your tone unhelpful and disrespectful of the Chinese. Hatred is going to get you nowhere most of us want to be in the modern world. China is not our enemy, but your attitude and actions flowing from it, can make them so. This is why such jingoism is not in vogue.
Good luck with that.
This is a good piece, but it understates the problems with our China policy.
We have issues with China, but a unilateral trade war is not going to resolve any of them. Our recent phase one agreement is a case in point—like our agreement with the North Koreans it does little more than tone down the belligerence we created. Stuff they were going to buy anyway and unenforceable statements of principle.
The trade war itself, however, has lasting consequences. Trump’s threats to destroy the Chinese economy legitimized Chinese hardliners’ position that the West was still colonialist and not to be trusted. Complete independence and self sufficiency were imperative. Intellectual property theft went way up.
Our current Chinese policy is nothing more than unproductive grandstanding. It is not “finally getting tough with the cheats”. Obama actually reduced intellectual property theft and the balance of payments deficit, rather than the opposite. Same for Chinese behavior on climate change.
If we actually want to make progress, it needs to be together with our allies (to double leverage) and in the context of international rules of fair trade—rather than what we think we can shove down their throats to maintain our dominance.
The trade war does not resolve issues, does lead to a fracturing of the world (with reduced security, prosperity, and US influence), and—as Leonard says—distracts us from the things we really need to do.
12
I can't help but wonder WHY Americans are "anxious" about China except that they are vilified in the media constantly. Of course there are issues with the government, but given the state of affairs in the U.S, it would seem that their anxiety is ill places to say the least.
7
I traveled to china twice in 2019 for business and will continue in 2020. It was my first trip to China in 2019. After travelling in 3 cities and interacting with local companies I walked away with impressions as outlined in the article. I have been sharing my impressions with friends and colleagues back in the US. I can now just forward this article that does a nice job of discussing the progress that has been made and the challenges for the US in the long run. Of course China has its share of problems but progress is steady towards a larger vision.
6
@Ranks, Good thing you're not Canadian. Thanks to the U.S. war on Huawei, they jail us for being in China as a proxy for doing the same to Americans only because they can't afford to challenge the U.S. directly.
Not only is China extremely patient, making moves that are decisive and clear, the country takes the long view and of a positive and exciting future. Modern Chinese history is about creeping not spinning in misdirected and unpredictable circles as we in the US are now awhirl.
I fear we will be viewed increasingly as the United States of entertainment while the Chinese put one step in front of the next.
10
Yes. What was dearly needed was a coalition that included Asian partners. And exactly that was on the table when Trump became president in the form of Trans-Pacific Partnership, that included most pacific countries with the notable exception of China. This accord would have worked to shore up democratic values in the region. Instead, Trump cast it aside as a disaster.
13
@David Brown
It wasn't just Trump that was against the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Hilary Clinton also turned against it once she found it didn't go over well with people who felt that NAFTA hurt work class people in manufacturing jobs.
America is not only losing ground in the Pacific, it's also losing the race for influence in Africa which is economically one of the fastest growing regions in the world.
1
China is patient and pragmatic. Events in the world can change the direction of any nation as climate changes rapidly or other events take place, but right now they seem to be taking a lot of the correct steps like building 21st century infrastructure and bringing in millions to the middle class. I don't see the one child policy being anything but a blessing for them as I continually wonder where more and more people are going to find work in economies that continues to shed jobs to automation and robotics.
2
@Bella You are extolling the merits of an authoritarian regime in a publication that that authoritarian regime blocks all Chinese from accessing. The irony is deafening.
1
Still, he’s right.
Interesting article. One point that many do not make is that while China may subsidize their industries, so too does the United States, in dollar terms 68 billion dollars in grants and subsidies to very large corporations including Boeing, Ford Motor, General Electric, General Motors and JPMorgan Chase as well as many more. What the Chinese have done and we haven't is increase spending on infrastructure. The picture of a subway car in Nanjing is an example. As one comment here notes our infrastructure is third rate and continues to fall behind.
15
We should not underestimate or take for granted the importance of America's soft power. Several years ago, when the Vietnamese students at my university presented their annual cultural program, one group of young people born long after the Vietnam War performed a cover of an Eagles golden oldie. It nearly brought me to tears. What the mighty US military had been unable to do, win minds and hearts, US rock music had done with ease. And I can't tell you how often people in Taiwan told me in 2008 that I should be proud of my country for having elected its first African-American president.
When the US is true to its commitments and principles, even when we might be paying more than our partners, they don't view this as our being weak and easily taken advantage of; they see it as the behavior of a truly great nation. That Trump seems wholly incapable of understanding this shows that he is the opposite of truly great.
24
I heard a lecture once: The 10 Greatest Mistakes of History.
One mistake was assuming that other cultures have the same values as ours. China is an ancient society that clearly does not. I do not pretend to speak for the Chinese and that China is not entirely Chinese needs to be noted. However, Confucianism seems to still run strong in China, stressing long-term (not short-term) goals and obedience to the parent -- with the government cast as parent and the population as children.
Though cultures can change (as in Hong Kong), we should not make the mistake in believing that this is what most Chinese are striving for.
8
Informative opinion Mr. Leonhardt, that many China watchers will agree with.
The main takeaway from this opinion is that China is moving forward and the US is moving backwards. For many, the inflection point in our nations slide backwards occurred in 1980. That is when the Reagan revolution was born and began its methodical destruction of our government, the courts and the American dream for so many.
Reagan's words have guided Republicans, in their zeal to deregulate markets, privatize govt., defund people programs, while increasing corporate welfare, and advancing destructive neoliberal policies.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem ." R. Reagan, 1981, inaugural address.
In short, the Reagan revolution has given the American people: the biggest transfer of wealth from the many to the few in history, failing infrastructure, failing schools, a healthcare system that destroys families, and endless wars.
But wait there's more! The Reagan revolution created the Federalist Society, a group of lawyers that has been quietly packing the courts with Republican and Christian right ideologues, and the Justice Dept. with people like Bill Barr. Trump is not an aberration, he is one of the many negative outcomes of the Reagan revolution.
That said, China trudges forward and the US slides backwards on its way to join Russia as kleptocracy that exploits its people and serves the oligarchs.
64
The points made in this editorial regarding the decline of the U.S. are well taken, but we aren’t falling short just with respect to China. Any American who has lived or traveled abroad knows that our infrastructure is third rate and that the well being of ordinary Americans is not close to that of advanced countries. (I have stopped saying “other” advanced countries, because we are no longer one). If I could wave a magic wand, I would give every American a passport and the means to travel. Trump’s support and that of the Republican Party would crumble overnight if his followers could see how they have been sold a bill of goods.
34
Two additional points -- first, the US and China are so economically entwined that acts justly penalizing China are difficult to undertake; second, the U.S.'s investment in science and technology is stagnant or declining, while China's continues to rise.
8
Things are never as bad or good as they seem. Recent FT review of the Red States in the south reveals that inward investment from China to US welcomed for obvious reasons. Unfortunately with heavy US tariffs that foreign support is now struggling with tariffs; despite Trump efforts to lower the temperature.
Now we learn Trump threatening Germany with car tariffs like re-run of 1970's Japanese car industry so-called invasion; partly fixed by revaluation of Yen / USD rate. In fact Americans were not exactly happy with Ford Pinto or AMC Pacer. Today US car industry in profit and leader with TESLA. However ironic the largest US car exporter BMW Spartenburg USA. China is now a global player which has implications for the US and Europe. Managed trade works; more ways to solve problems than problems themselves?
1
Trump has reversed the course of the fight between China and USA. This analysis is so partisan that you cannot see the light. If anything should be portrayed in the China battle is the innate industriousness of the Chinese people. Unlike a good 50% of Americans that are lazy and entitlement oriented, Chinese people love to be efficient and productive and help the greater goals of their country. Only Trump supporters think that way in the USA.
3
@rich williams Except it is the Red stated that take more Federal dollars than they contribute, have higher rates of divorce, lower educational achievement, and generally reject and fear innovation, like Florida did a few years ago when Gov Scott nixed the bullet train.
10
@rich williams Only Trump supporters? How about Trump himself who wants to support one thing, himself!
Please take note that a growth rate of 7% today is greater than what 10% would have been 10 years ago. The Chinese leadership has demonstrated that it is possible for the government to successfully plan an economy, but however clever the leadership of the Communist Party of China, its disregard of the freedoms we take for granted in our country should concern all of us.
The overpaid CEOs who run corporations in our country and in Europe have been foolish in their dealings with the Communist Party of China, which correctly understood that the kind of people who emerge at the top of western corporations will do anything to realize short term profits. These CEOs gave away all our technological and industrial advantages to the Chinese during the half century of deals that followed Nixon's decision to play pong with them. They also gave away millions of good-paying jobs of the American people.
Today the Chinese have a the best chain of supply in the world and produce more engineers and scientists than we do. They are emerging as a global power.
Why did we make this mistake? It was made because our educational system, which offered a tunnel viewpoint of history (Western Civilization) led our corporate leaders to underestimate the capabilities of a great civilization due to the fallacy of racism.
It will take bold leadership to regain our former position in the world, but one could argue that the horsepower has already been stolen out the barn door.
13
At a corporate level this erosion is due to prevalence of the bully and bombast style of management exemplfied by people like Chainsaw Al Dunlap.
When you put shareholders and current share value above everything, you throw the proverbial baby out with the bathwater. A case in point is IBM and Watson, although there are many examples.
If we are going to hand US corporations huge tax breaks it should come with a provision that at least a portion of the money be spent on R&D and innovation, as opposed to meaningless share buy backs, which are a road to nowhere.
14
Interesting analysis. However, it is very sympathetic to China, who in my opinion does not deserve sympathy. For the so-called "well-educated" New York Times readership, I suggest reading "The Hundred-year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America As the Global Superpower" by Michael Pillsbury, a China expert who served several US Presidents. One theme explicit in Pillsbury's book is how since the Nixon era, the United States has facilitated China's goal of global dominance to gain an ally then against the former Soviet Union, to play the Cold War superpowers off each other to gain geopolitical advantage, which proved to be an acceptable strategy until the fall of the USSR, leaving China as the power in the East. Then the strategy backfired in China's favor, not to mention concessions made to China in terms of technology transfer during the Clinton administration and beyond. Had HRC been elected President, America would have kowtowed to China in every possible way. Finally America, under Donald J. Trump, has a president who is willing to stand up to China, and attempt to curtail its attempt to replace the USA as the world's superpower, despite push back from the Establishment. I hope in the name of patriotism and nationalism, Americans will be patient as the tariffs combined with Trumpian trade policy, will level the playing field and restore American economic global hegemony. I support the President. I support Trump. Thank you.
5
@Southern Boy Michael Pillsbury, the same man that advised the Reagan Administration on arming the Afghan Resistance Movement in the1980's - think Osama Ben Laden here. We all know what that brought the USA in the long run.
Mr. Leonard is spot-on in his analysis of China and its world position.
1
@Southern Boy
In that case, you're more than welcome to pay MY share of the tariffs your hero has imposed on Americans ($1,300 per capita and rising).
Great observations,but I disagree with the premise. We should not be asking how the US can stay ahead of China. Instead ask how western democracies can maintain their position as the most desirable form of government. If the US tries to maintain its position as undisputed #1 economy and military power it will go bankrupt. If instead it tries to maintain its position of leader among strong and powerful democratic nations it will implicitly be a world leader for many years. As you note it is currently doing a very lousy job at this.
18
With trump and the GOP in lock step with Putin’s Russia, the Democrats may well need to partner with China if they hope to survive as a political entity.
Our country has been sold by trump and the GOP. I believe the Chinese would be a better partner for the Dems. And maybe even some Iranian hackers to break into the RNC, the trump tax returns, and that server where trump has put secret conversations with Putin and others.
1
@Charles Asia operates differently bribery is apart of the culture. Trump is the best ally of China.
Ivanka Trump has been given patents in double digits for future businesses outside the US.
China's strength has developed by embracing capitalism, loosening government restrictions, and increasing income inequality by virtue of limiting socialism. It is only under Xi that they are pulling back from these policies and their economy is slowing. David Leonhardt is right in their general threat (I have done business in China since the advent of capitalism in the early 90's, have had a JV with a government entity and three other business ventures). But wrong in his solutions. He is also right that Trump has been so inept and destructive to alliances and trade structures by fighting the last war, he is ceding new ground to the Chinsese despite their current economic weakness. We have to embrace alliances with S Korea/Japan, Vietnam, etc - do disassemble them. We need to establish a multi-laterial trade alliance in the region that counters Chinese influence. TPP would have been a good first step. The US should be a sanctuary for the best and brightest minds (instead of a place the restricts immigrants), a place that places educational attainment at the center piece of economic development (not wiping out student debt and keeping the same system intact), establishing policies for business formation not entitlement programs.
3
I think the author asks the wrong questions: how can we stay ahead of China as a great power, how can we better compete with China, how can we keep China from "closing the gap."
In my opinion, the right question is how can we better cooperate with China to improve the lives of American and Chinese people.
On a personal level, I buy products from both countries. For example, I recently designed and installed an LED lighting system for my apartment's master bedroom that makes it appear as bright as day when the lights are on (200 watts). Some of the components are American and some are Chinese. American companies and workers benefited, Chinese companies and workers benefited, and I really enjoy being in the bedroom because it is the best lit room in my apartment.
America should also confront China to discourage it from cheating (for example to end the theft of intellectual property and state support of industries that put American companies out of business). Some of these goals require tough negotiations where the reward is continued cooperation.
6
What should the US do in response to China's rise? That is the question for us. Do we engage in another arms race, only to end up the same way the last one did, or worse (the Thucydidean trap)? Do we let all the brakes off our economy, and compete with China in the degradation of the Earth? Must we compete at all?
I think it's interesting that the answer to the first question would be a response that would also be a necessary precondition for either an arms race or a radically deregulated economy. We have to get our house in order. We have to recommit to the ongoing democratic experiment that defines what America is better than anything else. The situation today eerily resembles that foreseen by Lincoln, where he warned that the greatest threat to the country's survival wouldn't come from the outside, but from internal divisions.
Corruption becomes dangerous not when it simply occurs, but when it becomes accepted. This to me is as disturbing as anything, what seems a growing acceptance of gross and obvious corruption at the highest levels, whence it naturally flows downward in both business and politics.
The best US response to China's rise is what it always has been: To restore and rebuild the corrupt foundations of our own house.
13
I am a Chinese and I have got my share of gains from China market. In the past 2 decades, I have been profiting from China. Trading and manufacturing products out of China.
The first decade of my life I have seen many MNCs and SMEs from all over the world gaining from China's growing economy and China's thirst of technological knowledge. Yet we do not see that China's business has shifted from countries helping to grow it to China's ambition wanting them to depend on China.
I have seen China's companies first hand with no regards for patents, royalties and becoming competitors to the same companies who has given them businesses to grow. In the end, many of these companies are bought over by them. Pricing lower than the inventors themselves.
We see everyday news about Foxconn who has once spearheaded manufacturing from China and was subsidised by the Chinese government. Today the government has stopped subsidising them and instead has subsidised and support their own Chinese company to grow ahead of Foxconn.
How often we have read Huawei employing Cisco engineers and reverse engineering of Cisco's network solutions. Do they pay for patents and royalties. Not forgetting, infringement of royalties when China company pays for 1 royalty but sells 10.
Ericsson and Nokia were once the giant of GSM backbone network. Today Huawei owns 15% of the world 5G patents. Huawei is subsidised by the government to offer better price to all countries. How can they compete with Huawei.
8
I don't think China understands what power is and most Americans and Canadians don't either. A totalitarian state (and China is) have little understanding that bullying is not power. An example of this weakness in China is the reemergence of Confucius. However if your understanding of power is being able to tell people what to do, remember; What goes up, does come back down.
4
The glaring concept that most Americans don't get about China is its size. I say this as a mainland Chinese who spent 4 years in the US.
China is not a country by your normal understanding. It is a whole civilization, on par with the Western civilization for the most part of history. Its size is almost same as the entire Europe, its population more than Europe and North America combined, its northern people more genetically different from southerners than Swedes from Greeks. Spaniards could roughly understand half of Italian in spoken form, I can't understand 10% of the dialect spoken by another Chinese living in the neighbor province. Yet we write and read in the same standard Chinese for the past 1000+ years. The Europeans are experimenting the EU with much frustration. While China is the legacy of that exact experiment done 2000 years ago.
That's what puzzles many Westerners. China is at the same time rich and poor, progressive and conservative, peaceful and belligerent. Why, it is supposed to be! Imagine you try to fit Europe into one of these words. The entire Europe up to the Urals, not just the EU.
20
@Isaac I've been to China and have heard many Chinese Americans say the same thing as you about dialects.
I thought China beautiful and compared to America, where I grew up and live, totally alien. The written language is different from the spoken language and all the signs are in Chinese with no English translation. I've never felt so "out of the U.S." as I did in this visit. But I loved it. What I don't understand is how China can be unified when it has so much diversity of culture, language, interests, lifestyle, etc. Your comparison to the entirety of Europe helps. So thanks.
8
@Stephen George Thank you. Your word "alien" nailed the problem. Among great civilizations of the world, Chinese and Western are probably of the largest differences. We are the nearest thing to space aliens to each other. The langrange barrier is so daunting---I spent 15 years in schools and 4 in the US to finally have a grasp on English. And according to linguists, Chinese is five times harder to a third party learner(say an Arabic native speaker) than English. I cannot say which civilization is better in general, but the lack of understanding certainly isn't helping. that is much worse on the Western part, because at least 100 million Chinese understand proper English, also because you believe your propogandist liars (on China issues, to some extent), while many of us don't buy a word from ours. Believe me, all you heard about China on the Western media (I read a truckload of them everyday) is 95% intentional misleading or outright lies. Mr. leonhardt is among the 5%, though not entirely accurate on some points.
3
@Stephen George Thank you. And your word "alien" nailed the problem. Among all major civilizations of the world, Chinese and Western are of the largest differences. I can't say which is better in general, but the distance is really alienating. The language barrier is so daunting——I spend 15 years in schools and 4 years in the US to finally master English! According to a native Arabic linguist, Chinese is five times harder than English... For the most part, I think the problem is that we don't understand each other, which is far worse on the Western side, because at least 100 million Chinese understand proper English, and because you believe your propaganda liars (to some extent on China), and we don't believe a word from ours.
1
China is ahead on wind, ahead on solar, ahead on 5G, funded the new Silk Road. On and on. Meanwhile we can’t pass a law as basic as a universal background check supported by 90% of the country. Our political extremism is doing serious damage to our long term global competitiveness.
22
@Wechson
I agree. There are solutions, however, and they all begin with finding a President who exploits what unites us rather than what divides us. One who isn't a thief or a liar. One who is emotionally balanced, not a psychological cripple. One with the maturity of an adult not an 8-year old.
When that happens we will find that individual surrounds himself with real experts, not sycophants. You can't learn if you don't listen.
2
During the nearly 20 years the U.S. has been spending trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan (two unfunded wars of choice), China's economy has grown 20 times in size. China has invested in science, infrastructure and global funding initiatives. The U.S. has invested in war while gutting education, science, infrastructure and environmental funding. U.S. corporations prostitute themselves to access the global markets because they know the future is China, not the U.S. By every marker the U.S. is falling behind China. If there is a military conflict, China will win and has in war games run by the military.
I'm certain more tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations will reverse all of these changes.
16
I live in China as an American. It's incredibly simplistic to say that that the U.S. and China are engaged in this zero sum game for success. They are not. Apple and Huawei? Yes, they are. Google and Baidu? Not really, but maybe in the future.
But Chinese people are almost relentlessly pragmatic. Forty years ago, things were really tough in China. That breeds realism. Are they nationalistic? Yes, they have thousands of years of history, culture, and wisdom. But if you - any country - make the best phone, the best car, the best whatever, most of them will buy it.
I think the US has an advantage in the fact that it generally encourages more individual creativity and initiative. I may be wrong, but I've taught in several countries, and Chinese students are used to a very top down approach. That doesn't encourage innovation.
But I think this whole "we have to beat China" meme that dominates Western media is misguided. Why not view China as an opportunity? it's a 1.2 billion person market that is just becoming middle class. There's a lot of money - and jobs - to come out of this market. Economics and trade are not zero sum games.
39
While China is moving away from sustenance farming and smokestack industries Trump has negotiated a deal to sell billions of dollars worth of soybean, pork, and raw materials to China while keeping tariffs on the smokestack industries in the hopes of returning the U.S. to the industrial revolution. In the mean time China is developing a network of high speed trains, is leading the way is solar and alternative energy technology, will be powering the world's 5G network, and will have access to the world's markets and raw materials through its global, one belt one road initiative.
Trump and the GOP are trying to take the U.S. back to the 1950's while China is leaping forward. We can predict how this will end: with U.S. wealth greatly diminished, China surpassing us as the next world superpower, and our cherished public lands stripped of their minerals, beauty, and cultural heritage.
27
Our stagnation is multifactorial. War has been a chief cause, because of the vast resources that have been diverted from investment at home in order to fight enemies overseas. At home, the US has spent a far greater percentage of GDP on healthcare. We have also as a society perpetuated habits that will harm us, our wasteful gas-guzzling cars, our purchase of stuff that clutters our homes and is not used for good purpose, our energy-inefficient homes. Let us not forget the current battle with demons, the opioid crisis, that has sapped resources widely throughout the US.
What China has that I wish we had is a vision for the future. Agreed that China is still totalitarian, but at least there is a plan. Our political leaders are caught up in the present, and some pander to the past. We cannot compete with countries that are willing to invest more in the future by sacrificing now.
17
Dave, I'm hoping that Evan Osnos will do a forensic analysis of this deal. He's one of the few journalists who gets China. Beyond the shabby smoke and mirrors show at the White House signing, what stood out was the dignity and patience displayed by the Vice Premier and his delegation. 45 wanted a rah rah Vegas-style signing show with Xi, but anyone who understands the Middle Kingdom, it takes 1000 years for the earth to move.
13
Is any of this growth, in the US and China, and reliance on consumerism sustainable? How does China continue to run this global empire when the oil runs out? When the resources it exploits all over the world run dry? China is far from exempt from the reckoning of living beyond limits on a finite planet. And, of course, climate change.
Please, enough of the rah! rah! on la la.
1
I understand president Macron's contention that Europe must position itself as a third global power to counter the U.S. and China, rather than just a partner or ally to U.S. interests.
After all, when Trump is gone from the stage, the madness that enabled his rise in the first place will still exist in America. Who would want to bet their future on a partner that has revealed these neuroses?
12
I’ve spent a lot of time in China since the early eighties. What has always struck me is its patient, long-term view, while Americans focus on an obsession with the appearance of short term results, some of them illusory.
I’ll take capitalism over Communism any day of the week. But ask yourselves this: if there’s nothing to be afraid of, why are we so afraid of China?
33
World capital chose China a few decades back as a site to develop fixed capital which is the best indicator of its social reproduction and its concomitant phenomena (science, culture, and growth of the social division of labor). That happened before in Japan after 1945 or the USA after 1864. The cycles of fixed capital are important for the determination of the social forms or manifestation of social reproduction of capital. States or individuals become unconscious agents in this process. However, national chauvinism or individualist delusions tend to obscure this process.
2
U.S. universities still produce top quality PhDs in the sciences. There is a deep foundation of knowledge from older professors. In fields like earth science, and other field-based research, a lot of knowledge is transferred to younger scientists through going out in the field and “seeing” the science through the wisdom of older mentors. In China, there are many fields of study that are far behind us. They don’t have the depth of experience that the U.S. has. Since funding for science has decreased in the last couple of decades, however, these mentors are retiring and there is not enough funding to carry on knowledge to the younger generations - there is a brain drain. With time, China will acquire a better foundation of knowledge and the U.S. will lose that foundation.
19
The American problem is: It has lost its moral authority. Leaving aside the bad war in Vietnam, the more recent Iraqi campaign, which started to find and destroy WMD and ended up bringing democracy to the Middle East(!) and finally electing someone like Trump and observing that almost half of the Americans actually support him left a real bad taste. In my youth years we saw the USA as the savior and champion of democracy and freedom. Today the feelings are much different.
48
Pres. Donald Trump is already destroyed the Iowa farmers by his tariffs brought on by his staff Navarro crazy about business doesn't know anything. But the damage has been done to American workers it would not be fair Pres. Donald Trump owes the American people I have $1 billion of lost wages and farm subsidies bigger than the auto industry bailout in the 1980s. The man had the deal had no deal he will tout that he's done well is not a successful businessman. This will only better big business bankers and Wall Street, not the American workers they been sold off wages are still stagnated. They might say we have a robust stock market but is only a house of fiefs and bankers.
So when you go down American streets Wisconsin that was a poster employed 2000 workers from China on the news the other day lesson 400 this was a promise Pres. Donald Trump on his campaign to the White House in 2016, Michigan and Pennsylvania is it any better now since Pres. Donald Trump been elected not for long miles. But is now all Pres. Donald Trump's fault lot of the problems people we elect go to Congress. And if we didn't turn our backs on Ho Chi Minh on the yellow River. From old politicians in the 1950s.
2
I do not agree with the op-ed writer that China has had a "good" decade. Sure, some indicators are good. Some things are better. But the things that have gotten worse in the last 10 years outweigh the things that have gotten better, and the author is naive if he doesn't see that.
Maybe the problem is that he apparently only observed China at both ends of the decade. Unlike him, I was in China for the entirety of the decade, and it was clear that the overall trajectory of change was negative, not positive.
Yeah, yeah, the high speed rail is great.
10
@Matt Could you give us some details on what you perceive to have gotten worse? Environment/Freedom - probably. However, the author was largely focusing on economic points
4
@Matt Some concrete details that led you to your conclusion would be interesting. The conclusion with them doesn't much inform us, unfortunately. Perhaps you can find a channel that affords you the space you'll need.
@Matt ask the Chinese people the question if they are better off. Ask Americans, suffering under Trump and the ugliness of our politics, the same question.
The Chinese are long term thinkers. We just care about getting rich now. The Chinese don't have a lot of energy resources and have to use energy efficiently. We believe we can burn as much as we want with no thought to any future environmental accommodation. All our leaders want is low taxes for the top 8% that they serve and are part of. Meanwhile the Chinese invest in education and an already impressive infrastructure. The Chinese are not resting on their laurels or indulging in any kind of "exceptionalism"
14
@Buoy Duncan The Chinese are not "long term thinkers" as you, and many others frequently state. The one-party system which effectively anoints leadership for life presents the illusion that their strategy is long-term.
If we want that kind of longer-term focus in the U.S. let's abolish the 22nd Amendment. While we are at it, let's also get rid of one of the political parties - flip a coin on which one. Then we can have a leader for life like China, with a "long term thinker".
Me? I'd rather keep the fickle system we have, where the power still rests with the people every 2, 4 or 6 years at the ballot box.
1
@Dave B / Dave, China is a long term thinker, strategically pushing to be the dominant power economically, politically, and militarily. You are correct, they are centrally planned , but with a nuanced three-tiered capilatistic overlay. I agree, US style capitalism works, it just needs some governmental controls to insure all interests are served,consumers and cooperate. As far as American political choices, I don't see much to choose from. The 1 percenters and their corporate overlords run the show. The middle class just pays the taxes.
5
I'm a Chinese currently pursuing an undergraduate degree at one of the most well-regarded institutions in America. As someone who comes from an affluent county-level city in one of the most prosperous provinces in China, as well as has traveled to a dozen countries, I would unhesitatingly put the United States on top of the list of countries that I feel most comfortable living in.
Indeed, China is catching up very fast in most fields it's competing against the US, but we have our own problems—severe problems, and I know that much better than people who spent some time teaching English here.
Folks, if you, for whatever reason, think the country you are living in right now is one of the worst places on earth, I’d suggest you that immediately pack up and book an air ticket to the outside world. When you finish up your global tour, you will have a better sense of how to weigh your own country.
Republicans are certainly not the issue here.
18
@Big Happy to have you. If you're fortunate you will the opportunity (and the inclination) to experience our country more broadly and deeply than what you'll find at any of our "most well-regarded institutions" of high education. You may then conclude that a quite small number of American citizens occupy themselves with negative comparison of their country to most others. When they compare life situations, they compare themselves to other groups in America. Don't mistake the chatter of the Academy class for prevalent opinion here.
8
@Big You are confusing levels and trends.
There is a concept called Loss Aversion in behavioral economics. Basically it means we feel the pain of losing something a lot more then the pleasure of gaining it.
Americans enjoy a high level of freedom and quality of life. However, they perceive a drop of quality relative to others. Therefor they are pessimistic. While in China, the citizens enjoy a lower level of freedom and quality of live. However, they are experience a trend of upward movement. Therefor they are optimistic.
4
Most societies progress due to creative contributions by a miniscule minority of people ( inventors, successful entrepreneurs, intellectuals etc.). Majority of the population of such societies prospers by jumping on the bandwagon. To that extent, the majority of the population does not, on its own earn, the right to prosperity. Yes Institutions that helped that miniscule minority to cause wealth creation and dissemination deserve the credit due to them. With globalization, the contributions of this miniscule minority are not confined to national boundaries and lead to wealth dissemination across national borders. This has led to reduction in inter-country inequality ( the gap between developed economies like US, EU and China, some ASEAN countries and even India, has narrowed down over the past 30 years). At the same time, the domestic wealth dispersal in developed economies has reduced ( deservedly or undeservedly so). Now even if globalization is rolled back it, the chain of events cannot be contained. There will be a hollowing out of the middle class and working class in the developed world inevitably. However if a nation wants to keep its dominant status it will have to be an attractor of talent, something that USA does much better than China.
1
It is a remarkable saga.
China, an ancient, sophisticated and venerable culture, found itself caught flatfooted as it was beaten and humiliated by superior Western science and military technology.
After many decades it regained its footing when it developed an atomic weapon, and thereby became militarily unassailable.
Once secure again within their own borders, China's citizens set about to restore their nation.
They have made extraordinary progress towards that end.
22
There is one point which I think has not been mentioned. When China decided to "modernize" it needed western companies to build and organize factories, which resulted in what we call "technology transfer." That has been going on for at least 25-30 years now, and independent of how successful the US is in limiting it, the genii now is out of the bottle, China has far less to learn from western (especially US) technology than it used to. Concrete example: Huawei. We were dominant in matters related to high-tech, but Huawei is doing fine even as the US tries to cripple it (shown in several Times articles). I suspect Huawei's top engineers have had lots of experience in the US, and even our graduate schools have long depended on Chinese enrollment. Much of what Trump talks about is returning to an age (US clear supremacy) which ended decades ago.
37
@Bert Floryanzia : China, once one of, if not the most advanced nation on earth, got smug and complacent. What did it need from the "barbarians"? It shunned the outside world, moth-balled its merchant marine, and contemplated its superiority. Then, the barbarians showed up, with modern artillery, and took from China what they wanted.
I keep getting the feeling that America is doing the same thing, secure in its assumed permanent superiority.
1
As someone suggested below competition is probably not a bad thing for the US. Sitting on your laurels never helps.
I note though that Chinese debt is around 300% GDP. The US around 80%.
And the reason Chinese infrastructure is all shiny and modern is not much of it existed 40 years ago.
Friends tell me that travelling on the VFT Shanghai to Beijing you see many brand new empty cities.
China's future no doubt rests on how its politics develops as its wealth grows.
9
@Paul The 300% of the GDP is all the national and local government, corporate and household debt. The state debt is only 50% of the GDP. The total US federal, local government, corporate and household debt is about 400% of its GDP. The Chinese Debts are better handle since their yearly GDP is growing 3x faster then the US GDP. I worked in China, banks and credit are very stable. The Bank reserve is 13% vs 10% for US banks. The central bank interest rate is 4.5% vs 1.5 for the Fed here. There is an underground lending economy that is present in all East Asian countries. The extent of it is unknown but that part of the loans are the most stable of all. It involve informal loans from family/friends to start a business. Default on those loans are rare since the debtor owns his family and not the banks. The loans are much like the informal loans that the Korean Grocers made to each other in NYC during the 80s. Those loans were almost always payoff by working 16 hrs and 7 days
16
History shows investment in productive infrastructure trumps unproductive military spending. No surprise here. What is surprising is that the United States choses to compete with ineffective, theatrical trade restrictions, and military posturing.
The United States needs to wake up if it does not want to fall further in status.
25
As Joseph Stiglitz says in his People. Power and Profits it is basic research has to be funded by the Government. Advances in knowledge are the most important sources of improvement in the standard of living.
As Elizabeth warren says in This Fight is Our Fight scientists like some of the commenters below flock to other countries now for better chances--professional and otherwise. It is just too tragic that Trump only thinks about the millionaires and add to their wealth instead of attacking the scientific institutions and leading ultimately to the worsening of the standard of society at large.
Economic power is the basis opolitical power.....and so.
8
China's big advantage now is its demographic profile. A huge generation is at its peak earning and productivity years; they are like the US in the 90s, when the baby boomers were between 30 and 50 years old. The US, on the other hand, is burdened both economically and politically by the huge older generation that is starting to retire.
However, a reversal is coming. Let's look at what things will be like 30 years from now. In the US, the huge mass of baby boomers will be largely gone, while the equally large generation of millennials will still be working and productive. However, in China, over 40% of the population will be over 65, with relatively few prime-age workers to support them. We will be dynamic, and they will be sclerotic.
9
Having recently traveled extensively to China and visiting
some large cities such as Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen as well
as smaller cities and cultural sites and was as impressed
as Mr Leonhardt was in their remarkable advances. Their bullet
trains speeding at a smooth and comfortable 300 plus km/h
are but a dream to American travelers not to speak of clean
well organized cities and futuristic airports.
I cite these observations of Chinese advances not to denigrate American know-how but to express frustration
at our impotent government stagnating in grid-lock and
unable to deliver.
62
I chose to move to China and work at a start-up university because there are many more opportunities here than in the States, both in terms of being able to build a university as well as much better pay and benefits. And it's not like I didn't have job offers there. It's that the working conditions here are much better. Who would have guessed that decades of crumbling infrastructure, social services, and reduced funding for education along with rising costs of living would make the US not as an attractive place to live? Case in point: The institution where I got my PhD from recently cut the number of doctors at their health clinic from 15 to 5. Instead of same day appointments, folks now have to wait weeks. Bit by bit, these quality of life adjustments that Americans are asked to make add up. Given a choice, folks go elsewhere. And believe me, I'd like to be closer to my family. May the short shortsightedness of the corporate mindset give way to something more human.
109
@Tyjcar
Yeah. We moved to Switzerland. It makes me sad to see my country go down the tubes but for a scientist, Switzerland is much better.
1
This says it all: "The United States is skimping on the investments like education, science and infrastructure that helped make it the world’s great power. It is also forfeiting the soft power that has been a core part of American pre-eminence."
32
The trains run on time, but the politics are running off the rails.
After experiencing Mainland China, Taiwan, HKG and the USA for the past 20 years, it is increasingly the political process in Taiwan and the USA that makes me optimistic for the future.
The Mainland used to be better with mandated leadership changes every 10 years, arguably somewhat equivalent to the USA, but the rise of the emperor-for-life seems to have done away with this rejuvenative process.
Let's check back in 10 years and see if China can get it's politics back on track.
7
When I visited china also about 10 years ago, the Chinese government and country was in the midst of a building spree especially infrastructure and middle class housing much of which was beyond the means of most Chinese workers. The construction of these clean modern buildings were meant to stimulate the economy perhaps to the point of over reach, as they stood empty for years, but also as an investment in future growth.
The Chines as in most civilizations seek status and a comfortable life style which to them includes a nice place to live and as my guide told me an SUV which to me gave me visions of 100s of millions new gas guzzlers with the concomitant pollution which we now see in many chinese cities.
But China has not dropped out of the Paris accords and has taken steps to deal with its pollution. It has a plan that has lifted it out of the desolation of its own revolution and its subjugation to the western powers of the 19th century. Whether that plan which includes high tech and more moderate growth will make it 'better' then the US is not the issue. Rather it is whether China can be brought more clearly into the international community as a partner rather than as an adversary.
5
A thoughtful article that underlines what works. The Chinese are benefiting from simple and fundamental cultural values, e.g. a work ethic, an education ethic, a respect between generations, relative freedom from drugs. In the last few decades they have had a half way enlightened government that understands what causes humans to devote their efforts to improving the productivity of the society. Xi also seems to be attempting to suppress the inevitable corruption associated with human and corporate greed. So far the Chinese population is buying the package. The real question is can their 'one party' system continue sufficient self correction to sustain these traits and results, or will they go off the rails with Tiannamen Square like massacres or foreign stupidities like building fake islands in the South China Sea or grabbing territory.
A two party democratic system is obviously no guarantee of automatic self correction that avoids criminal stupidity, at least in the foreign relations sector, e.g. Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq wars. On the plus side, the multi party democracies have so far avoided Tiannamen Square like massacres. Unfortunately a two party democratic system doesn't seem to have too much to do with sustaining healthy work ethics, valuing real education for all, encouraging intergenerational respect, and preventing individual and corporate greed from producing gross distortions in the financial and political sectors.
30
There is always a country on the rise to become a world prominence. China would very well be, but not in the status as America after WWII. I am sure China would avoid becoming the world police or take in as many country people as we had. But, yes, it could indeed become the next leader. China thinks long term and structures everything on that plane. America does actions quarterly and always about profit. 45 has not done America any good with his personal aggrandizing and belligerence to our allies. I would have to accept China, but I would like America to at least be in the game, holding her own.
11
What most Americans do not understand about China
It is set to MILITARILY challenge the US
1. With Ships and Missiles, China Is Ready to Challenge U.S. Navy in Pacific NY Times 8/29/2018
2. China Commissions 2nd Aircraft Carrier, Challenging U.S. Dominance NY Times 12/17/2019
3. Australia signs US$35 billion submarine deal with France as countries vie for influence in the Pacific
South China Morning Post, 2/11/2019
4. Japan builds an island ‘wall’ to counter China’s
intensifying military, territorial incursions
Washington Post , Aug 21, 2019
Instead, most Americans, American Economists included, still focus on trade, economics, and innovation
The conflict with China is way past that. It is which Nation will dominate the 21 Century.
11
Great article! I wish we had more people who understood this type of talk. Sometimes I feel we are the minority.
I know for the US to change, its needs a fundamental change/shift in it's way to seek knowledge, to learn. In this generation, I see some changes but there is not much that sticks out for better change. Just meh and that's a problem, in my opinion.
7
I think it is good for the world that power and influence is more distributed. It will likely become even more distributed as frontier- and emerging markets continue to grow faster than mature markets. It will give greater cultural diversity and hopefully more peace
10
@Finn Majlergaard It was the co-called Balance of Power that led directly to World War I.
@Finn Majlergaard
While I have concerns about China's use of its power, I believe that there needs to be a counterbalance to America's power.
Trump's presidency has shown that the US has no compunction for abusing it's military and economic power to even bully and disadvantage it's allies and friends. The world needs a powerful Europe and China to ensure that America's greed and aggression is moderated by competing powers. An alternative leader of the western world would be most welcome.
1
Many commenters have pointed out that the mindset of shining optimism in the future, which used to be a defining American feature, now more accurately describes the average Chinese citizen.
What I also find interesting is the way the American mindset has evolved to become closer to the British mindset-- a sense of decay and ennui reflecting the twilight of a once great empire. One really does get the sense that we are approaching the end of one cycle and beginning another.
52
China has never been able to take for granted what the United States has for so long - its global influence. So while Americans for far too long assumed that they were the most powerful country in the world, the Chinese have been working towards that distinction.
7
I have been blessed to work and travel regularly in China over the past 25 years. During that time, the US infrastructure has declined in ways that endanger our safety and security every day. During that same time, the infrastructure of China has advanced in ways that Americans could not possibly grasp. This is key, and this will continue as long as the US spends trillions of dollars on wars of opportunity at the expense of our own nation's needs.
173
It is hard for Westerners to realize, but for most of recorded history China was the most powerful nation in the world. When the Roman empire was at its height Han China ruled over more land and millions more people. During the European dark ages the Sui and Tong dynasties were dominant in the world. The early Manchu emperors were admired by Voltaire. The years from 1830 to 1950 were an aberration and China is recapturing its traditional place in a world that is much more unified than ever before. We have our work cut out for us if we want to remain competitive.
78
@Cassandra Actually, the Han and Roman Empires have typically been guestimated to have similar populations at their height. But historical demography and cliometrics is still pretty much an exercise in rough estimation.
Otherwise, the domestic Chinese dynasties were regional empires, however outsized, and more than a few occasions, northern territories were overrun by peoples of inner Asia. In a few cases, China would be taken over entirely by foreign invaders, like the Mongols in stages, and the Manchu (the Manchu were not Chinese originally, and practiced segregation policies in various ways).
Not sure why you give 1830 as a year when problems were emerging earlier, even by Manchu accounts, like with the White Lotus revolt and corruption in the later period of the Qianlong Emperor's reign, in the 1790s. However, rounds of disasters, disunity, foreign invasion, etc. had been noted by the Chinese scholastic gentry over the millennia since the Han dynasty fell in the third century.
10
@Cassandra According to the recent best-seller "1421," after the great expeditions all over the East, the Chinese emperor severely restricted trade and especially shipping in that year, which led to its decline. I don't see how you can deny that, from Columbus' and de Gama's voyages, Europe was the supreme world power.
3
@HKGuy Sadly for China, it was the Ming emperor Yongle, advised by court officials who did not value trade, who made the disastrous decision to burn all of China's ships, which at the time were were far more numerous, larger and faster than anything the Portuguese or Spaniards had. That terrible decision took China out of the race for world colonization as it ceded naval and sea power to Spain and Portugal, both neophytes relative to the Chinese back then. The voyages of Admiral Zheng He on behalf of the Ming emperor remain legendary throughout Asia.
9
I am a scientist, with many colleagues around the world, including ones in China. I am always getting inquiries from potential grad students and postdocs. Mr. Leonhardt: you nailed the situation about science in the U.S. and China.
Qualitatively, the U.S., Europe and Japan still lead in science. Quantitatively, China leads. China is spending WAY more money than we are on infrastructure, instrumentation, education, facilities, technology, you name it. Not to sound harsh, but Chinese scientists pretty much parrot what scientists in the U.S., Europe and Japan publish. They are extremely good at it, but the Chinese scientists don't seem very good at prioritizing or developing concepts. Because of the weird reward system in China, their scientists flood top-tier journals with manuscripts, 98% of them rejected. They are undaunted and steadily improving.
Given this funding trend, the U.S. Europe, and Japan should expect to be eclipsed in science.
13
@David When it comes to R&D, if the UNESCO statistics folks are correct and the data current (2017?), the US is still ahead of the PRC.
UNITED STATES
FINANCIAL RESOURCES
R&D spending as % of GDP
2.7%
R&D spending in PPP$
$476,452.0M
CHINA
FINANCIAL RESOURCES
R&D spending as % of GDP
2%
R&D spending in PPP$
$370,605.5M
That being said, the US should step up investments in all dimensions of research and scientific inquiry.
We could also pick up on the infrastructure, where the PRC clearly leads.
2
@David : Thank you for your insightful and relevant opinion. Very glad to hear from a actual scientist on this topic.
The difference in national trajectories results from cultural values.
In China, children are expected to be respectful, disciplined, and dutiful. Here, feral children are the norm.
In China, the educational system demands objective evidence of learning, advances those who study, and celebrates academic achievement. Here, we pretend that tests are unfair and unnecessary, pour resources into lazy students and those with hopeless cognitive impairments, and disdain intellectual achievement.
In China, people expect to work extremely hard, live modestly within their means, and save. Here, people expect a high standard of living regardless of economic productivity, expect others to subsidize their education, mortgage, healthcare, and retirement, and rarely save a dime.
In China, people are self-reliant. Here, we fetishize victim status and imagine that every struggle or failure is due to racism, sexism, and Republicans.
China's "peaceful rise" can be attributed to the incredible efforts of her people, while our stagnation is due to a completely pathological set of values that deter industriousness and personal ambition. It is no surprise, no surprise at all, that the children of Chinese immigrants to the US run circles around native-born sloths . Pass the Doritos, please.
55
@Troglotia DuBoeuf But but but is not it all the main attributes of "the society of consumers"?
2
@Troglotia DuBoeuf : You wrote: "In China, people are self-reliant. Here, we fetishize victim status and imagine that every struggle or failure is due to racism, sexism, and Republicans."
Ugh, this sounds so Ayn Rand: stark, oversimplified, and mean-spirited. But...oh, lord, even as a progressive Dem (& boomer), part of me says "yep; there's some truth here."
Our problems are huge and deeply systemic: income inequality (which goes to the heart of issues like affordable health care), corporate & government cronyism, as well as global warming. Yet somehow we spend inordinate amounts of attention on who can use which bathroom and the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.
I disagree with you, however, on this point: the Republicans do, indeed, deserve blame for not even attempting to address the big issues.
10
@Troglotia DuBoeuf -I've been following the rise of China globally, inking up deals for precious and natural resources across the planet and building new infrastructure over the last decade--while the U.S. was mired in war and continues to run deficits (borrowing 1/4 to shore up the government's annual budget) and adds trillions to the national debt. Looking at the picture of Trump and President Xi Jinping that accompanies this op ed is telling: Trump, the ever- clueless fool and Xi Jinping, the shrewd stable genius.
3
This is the key, competition with China can be good if it is manifested in the form of making America better rather than making China worse. It's the same way healthy competition between companies is based on both companies trying to make the best products rather than one company trying to damage the other company's products. Unfortunately, we seem to hear way more about strategies for hamstringing China rather than strategies for improving America.
33
@HO : Thank you for this great comment. You are right.
Unfortunately, the U.S. doesn't seem to be able to improve anything any more. All we can do is undo whatever the previous guy did.
8
NYT opinion writers are understandably tempted to see American stagnation, in areas where is correctly diagnosed, as a Trump-related problem. Be that as it may, it is only a (small) part of the problem. Canada moved in exactly the opposite political direction during the decade, from the dour conservative to the fashionably liberal, but the stagnation is, if anything, much worse here. We can't build anything, and not a single major national project has gotten off the drawing boards. The causes are many: NIMBYism, Aboriginal discontent, high levels of government debt, environmental concerns, and above all, social fragmentation by language, culture, region, the rural/urban divide, and identity politics. The Chinese can accomplish things because theirs is a top-down society. It's fine to suggest that the American government should be promoting democracy and human rights, but until we learn to balance rights with duties and responsibilities we in North American will continue stagnating when it comes to national initiatives. Of course our lives aren't stagnating: the big tech companies, American and Chinese, are turning them upside down.
13
@William Benjamin
Canada weathered the recession well and continues to enjoy an admirable living standard. The median household net worth even surpassed the US a few years ago. Of corse, 50% of US households have a negative net worth.
8
This is a realistic article. But China does not have a problem with "dissent" in Tibet and Xinjiang. It has a problem, of the Party-state's own making, of resentment by the oppressed people of two occupied nations. Occupiers always face this problem.
7
Tibet and Xinjiang are 2 provinces in China compatible to two western states in USA, say California and Oregon. Give the government time to bring up the economy and good economy will attract population movement to populate the two provinces and make the two provinces prosperous and nice. History of USA pacification of the west coast states are encouraging precedent for China.
@CK They are far larger than say California or Oregon. And they have cultures that are quite different from provinces of Eastern China.
One reason with Tibet, its the Tibet Autonomous Region, with ~90% of the people Tibetan.
Similarly, Xinjiang is the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, with a majority Muslim population.
10 years ago I thought China could not fix the systemic corruption, but they did.
10 years ago I thought China could not fix rampant desertification, but they did.
10 years ago I thought China could not fix the out of control housing bubble, but they did.
10 years ago I thought China did not have the creativity to create competitive technology companies, but they did.
I've stopped doubting China. They are able to solve these huge problems and then move on to the next one in a way that the U.S. can only dream.
Meanwhile, our politicians spend most of their time undoing the achievements of the previous administration. Just because. No forward progress on any issue of substance.
Anyone can see where this is going.
189
@David Bosak Don't think its clear that the corruption has been "fixed" nor the desertification. Where did you hear that?
As for real estate bubbles, and overleverage in that area, that is still a concern.
Where did you those issues were "fixed?"
17
@David Bosak Yeeeah, I lived in China for six years and only came back recently. From what I saw, none of these issues have actually been fixed and some have gotten worse, in fact. The problem is indeed what the writer said: The US is moving backward more than China is moving forward, and that is hugely beneficial to the CCP (though countless Chinese citizens are actually suffering greatly because of it).
2
Not to mention air quality improvements for which they have made remarkable strides in Beijing, based on my last 10 visits there.
1
The U.S. should respond to China's influence with a belt and road project of its own to build renewable energy infrastructure connecting all of the continents together to provide biofuels, transport, and electric service 365/24/7. It's only about 12,000 miles around the world at 60 degrees latitude. Most of the land in the world is in the Northern hemisphere. Most of the route is overland. Ships can carry fuel (stored energy), water, equipment, trade goods, and passengers. HVDC cables can carry electricity up to 1200 miles. We can work with the Chinese where our networks meet, developing new technology.
Bringing people and continents closer together should be a part of our foreign, energy, and transportation policy. Our objective should be a world that works for everyone.
7
@chuck
I cannot imagine a One Belt One Road level of vision and commitment from the United States these days. American empire has become debased and degenerate compared to post-WWII era with the Marshall Plan and its bold strokes. As a Persian character observes in the film, House of Fog, Americans have become spoiled children.
2
The US right now reminds me of Britain as its imperial power was on the wane, or indeed if Qing Dynasty China on the eve of the Opium Wars - we’ve become so used to being on top, the “Middle Kingdom” if you will, that we’ve come to believe our position there is just the natural order of things, and we’re there by rights. As such, we fail to notice others gaining on us and whittling away at our power while failing to invest in the things that got us there in the first place.
It’s inevitable that we won’t stay on top forever. But within our power is the decision to make either a soft or a hard landing. Unfortunately, the election of Trump and continued failure to invest in our future sets us up for the latter.
Leonhardt mentions Nanjing’s sleek and modern subway. Just today, I was late to a doctor’s appointment because of one of what have become routine signal meltdowns on the NYC subway - whose decrepit state is almost the perfect metaphor for American decline.
The worst thing about all this is that China’s rise and America’s decline risk delegitimizing democracy around the world. When people see China’s shiny new infrastructure and grand accomplishments, versus America’s crumbling infrastructure and inability to accomplish even simple things like fixing healthcare, which system will look better to them?
185
@AD Perhaps that is because the USA is actually not a democracy. It is a democratic republic, meaning that it is open to the concept of minority rule. Which by the way is what is happening right now. The majority of the populace wants sane gun control, more affordable and better healthcare, cheaper medically mandated drugs, improved infrastructure, etc, etc. Instead the USA is fed a constant diet of the other side is wrong, evil, and should be feared. That the only way up is to step on your neighbour and by bullying. With this type of environment, the USA can only continue to decline on the world stage.
3
I see a lot of people thinking the same in India about China. That’s probably why the elected Modi as a strongman to replicate China’s success (and this despite the fact that the two countries dislike each other to say the least)
When schools no longer teach economics nor civics in any meaningful way, and money is allowed to freely pass from corporations to government and directly into the making of law, the expectation that citizens will understand the myriad ways that they are conned every day is like believing in unicorns.
66
2010 was pretty much the year of Citizens United and partisan bickering which had turned into outright screaming. Because of this, very little was done and politicians became more focus on staying in office. Meanwhile, China, despite internal political struggle, keeps their citizens and officials united and doesn't let them get divided over LGBTQ rights.
I dare say American corruption is far worse than Chinese corruption because American corruption is actually blocking the government from taking long overdue action.
23
There's no doubt China will continue to advance technologically, but many of the infrastructure projects mentioned here are not really comparable to the United States. Large subway systems and high-speed rail are necessary due the sheer amount of people in China, 4-5x US population. The author doesn't discuss the population strain on the food and water supply. What about the amount of waste produced and lack of recycling? Flashy buildings and infrastructure the modern equivalent of smoke and mirrors.
3
@Nick R Large subway systems and high speed rail are necessary to move people who live in large population centers. California, especially the Bay Area and Los Angeles, would benefit mightily from having this infrastructure, especially with the majority of its 40 million people concentrated in urban ares. Yet we cannot make it happen. Why? We are falling behind other countries that make efficient transportation systems that - Europe, Singapore, Malaysia, even Thailand. America generates more waste per capita than China and doesn't know what to do with all the recycling waste since China no longer imports most recycled waste products. These countries are educating their children to a higher standard of functional literacy. Why can't America do the same?
28
For someone who lived and worked in higher education in China for eight years, this article rings true, mostly.
However, I would also say that it would be good for us and the world on the brink of climate disaster if we could see China more as a prospective partner and less as a rival.
In fact, we might expect these words on the gravestone of humanity: "They much preferred to fight each other than to fight together for their own survival."
51
The U.S. needs to be reminded of the incredible soft power it weilds. A country that can create things (before anyone else) like Rock and Roll, Space launches, TV and Movies, computers and iPhones and on and on is what needs to be remembered. This happened because of the freedoms, diversity and liberty that we enjoy. China is big. China is powerful. But how do you lead the world when you can't even criticize your own government? The U.S. needs to remember how we became powerful.
12
The article is a useful summary, but let's take one issue not discussed, "education culture", that is working to Beijing's favor. The government provides a vast centralized education bureaucracy that provides a strong basic education for all students through high school. it is harshly competitive for access to better schools as students progress through middle and high school into university. For those with less academic interests there are vocational tracks. Most good students take classes after school, and both days on weekends, in English, math, science and Chinese. There is NO emphasis on competitive school sports in the Chinese system.
The culture is geared to prepare students to be the brains and leaders of a world led by China. If you live in Beijing, and understand the education system, you will also understand the enormous pride students feel for their country, on the leading edge of what they see is a world that is Eurasian, no longer centered on the United States.
Currently, the value students see in the US is university education. That is changing as more good Chinese universities gain international reputations and graduate research programs.
37
@Bob Fonow : Yes, once the Chinese universities advance to the point where they start attracting their own students and students from other countries, the U.S. is done. Our universities can't live without the talent and tuition from international students.
6
@David Bosak-It's already true that China graduates more English-speaking students with advance STEM degrees than the U.S.
3
@David Bosak Not sure of that. But we need to nurture every bit of talent we have. China has four times every A student, four times every student with an IQ over 130.
What the Chinese don't understand about American's is that Americans see them as rivals and enemies. They don't see Americans that way. Sadly, this article continues that rivalry, rather than what the future truly needs: collaboration. The chances of the American empire seeing things that way is zilch.
5
@Mark
Collaborators that ease China's rise perhaps. Most Chinese assume China's dominance is inevitable due to historical revisionism, propaganda, and the real truth that the Chinese economy will surpass the U.S. if it continues its current trajectory even if the pace of growth slows just getting the lagging parts of China to meet the surging parts halfway will lead to that outcome.
China would have an easy time without the legacies of WWII and Communism- in fact, it has to be careful not to inflame old antagonism's that have benefited the U.S. up to the present.
@Mark...
Unfortunately most Americans view the world as a football game.
1
Here is an example. The most significant economic opportunity of my lifetime (maybe ever) is reinventing our energy/logistics systems. China is now the leader in solar, wind, and EVs. The U.S. is the only nation of significance that walked away from the Paris Climate Accord. China wins, the U.S. loses. Climate denialism is uniquely American, except for the other shining example, Australia. Ideology trumps science and good policy.
57
@BigBlue
China is by far the world's leading producer of coal and has been since 1985, visit iea.org. Not to mention the hundreds of millions of tonnes they import from Australia and other countries each year. Not sure how those facts fit with your narrative of climate denialism being a US/Australian only ideology.
Just a brief mention in passing of the surveillance state. The dichotomy between Hong Kong and the mainland on personal freedom is remarkable to me, and the difference can only be attributed to several generations of British rule. Over a billion docile mainlanders have willingly submitted to being monitored on a minute by minute basis in exchange for plentiful consumer goods, with every aspect of their lives ruled by carrot and stick algorithms. Will there ever be a backlash or has any thought of resistance just been bred out of the population? We're not far from it here ourselves but seeing this zombification occur on such a massive scale without a peep of protest is terrifying.
24
@stan continople : It is not terrifying to them because it is not being abused. They are using the surveillance to enforce the laws, and that's it.
5
@David Bosak
Ask the estimated 2.5 million Uighurs what law they broke when Xinjiang was turned into worlds most comprehensive surveillance covered area.
6
@stan continople Unfortunately, USA is already there. It's just that the data are collected by private companies. And do you think these corporations will sell or turn over such data to the government? My guess is that 99.999% will. Not every firm has deep pocket like Apple to fight FBI demands.
1
I totally agree. I have been to China every year for the past ten years. I admire the Chinese ability to move forward while recognizing their history and tradition. People in China love their country and want it to succeed and modernize. They are proud of their economic growth while at the same time speaking respectfully of other countries. Here, we are two nations conflicted who blame our failures on other countries and not ourselves. Our leaders seek to rub the other side’s noses in the dirt. No one really cares about modernization and in fact we are creating barriers to change more and more. We assume that we lead the world. Like the philosopher Descartes who posited “I think, therefore I am” we ignore the world and experience. Many Americans never leave the US and are unaware of other countries having passed us in the standard of living. We put up barriers to North and Central Americans south of our border while China is reaching out everywhere. Our time has passed because we don’t have a grip on our place in the world and others who also live on the same planet.
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@PAUL NOLAN
So perhaps we should learn from China and start doing what they would do to mass migration of illegal immigrants into their country...let's round them into camps and make them work in factories and take away their freedom and rights..paying below minimum wages...if there are dissenters, quietly take them into prison and place them in isolation until their rebellious mentality literally breaks down and the person realizes how futile it is to rise up against an authoritarian system and becomes docile.
The special brand of authoritarian “Communism” In China, where everyone seems obsessed with money and many with buying prestige (like kids running wild in a candy shop) has a glossy surface but is thin. The children of the one child generation are reaching the age where they must take care of their aging parents, and there is very little help. Some years ago when I was in China, the overriding concern of most younger Chinese I met was making enough money to be able to afford (without mortgages, which were illegal) to buy an apartment large enough to house their parents when they reached mandatory retirement age. That I could discern, there was also no Socialist or Communist health care for seniors, just their one kid to shoulder all responsibilities.
Just as China engineered a tremendous economic rise based on having a gigantic but impoverished population (limitless cheap and desperate labor), its future also lies in its people. Demographics is destiny.
13
What an excellent, important, set of observations! If only the current President's "base" could see what a disastrous course he is leading us down - of decline in our country under him in the things that count (education, scientific research, infrastructure, government by law not a dictator, open-ness to the world), and in China's taking (understandable) advantage of our poor leadership and decline in all those areas.
20
The federal government bears the great responsibility of promoting all of those things that will help this nation regain ground lost over the last two generations: education, infrastructure, healthcare reform, and so on.
This process starts first, of course, with a change in both politics and the polarization that grips us. Conservatism will speed our present course to history's dust bin. Progressivism, or a take on it, is the best chance we have to halt and reverse our national decline.
Thereafter, the name of the game is money: where it comes from and how it is spent. Our tax policy is hugely inequitable and collection is poorly enforced. Our spending policy ever increasingly tilts toward caring for the elderly and for expanding and maintaining our massive military-industrial complex.
All of this must be slowed to the extent that funds in abundance can be found that promote the wellness of and fairness in society, the lifting of minds through schooling and experience, and the expansion of the fundamental infrastructure upon which all great nations, their economies and societies, are built.
5
China faces several systemic challenges which this article touches on but quickly glossed over, the primary challenge being demographic. Due to the one child policy, China's working age population will see a drastic increase at the same time it's over 65 age will explode. Demographers predict by 2040 China will have twice as many elder people as children under the age of 15. No country in history has turned as gray this fast. To make matters worse, the one child policy resulted in mass - and often forced - abortions, typically of females. As such, China will have to cope with tens of millions of surplus men who have no prospect of marrying, having children, or carrying on their bloodline. A rising generation of increasingly forced urbanized Chinese youth (mostly men), who have no siblings, no spouse, no aunts, and no uncles will shatter China's 2,500 year old reliance on tight familial networks.
The economy is propped up to a large degree by a government aware that if its fortunes take a slight downturn, they will have to deal with millions of disenfranchised individuals. Its why the army mostly points inwards as opposed to outwards. Its why ghost cities are built with no inhabitants. Its why megaprojects are undertaken with little regard for their final outcome. Development must continue for developments sake, because it all amounts to a type of welfare system whereby the government keeps idle hands busy and injects money into a house of cards.
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The US, on the other hand, faces a problem of citizens claiming we don't want socialist handouts or government protection, while ignoring the many benefits and safety nets we receive. Based solely on services provided to our citizens (social security, welfare, medicaid, medicare, expenditures on public education, insurances of safe food/water/air), our government is far more "socialist" than China, which provides little to none of these services. When the US went from an agrarian society to an industrial one, we had a rapid burst of development as farmers moved to factories. Now that we are experiencing a shift from industrial to an informational economy, we are in the midst of our own societal upheaval. Factory jobs are gone and are never coming back, so we must dramatically increase spending in education to prepare workers for the knowledge sector, and increase short term assistance and work programs for those who are unable to make it in a tech based world.
China has skyrocketed because they went from agrarian to industrial / information in a short period of time. But their economy is naturally tapering, and their citizens will be facing harsh realities as mentioned in my prior demographic post. Shanghai is a glistening, global mega city. Xi'an is an Orwellian concentration camp. The growth is not equal. The course of China's rise is the natural progression of an economy shifting from subsistence farming. But will its model sustain for the next 1/4 century? Unlikely.
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@Mash "Xi'an is an Orwellian concentration camp". Huh?? Really? Xi'an is a bustling second-tier city where the Terracotta warriors were discovered. I don't know where you have got this impression. Book your flight tomorrow and see that ancient city for yourself.
Seems fair to give some credit to President Trump for realizing
that China, a totalitarian state with dominance tendencies, competes with us.
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@John Corr : I would give Trump credit for making an enemy of a country that a very short time ago was our friend. He could have negotiated these changes to our relationship in private. His constant public bashing of China has turned the U.S. government, the U.S. media and the American public sharply against China. In the long run, I feel this will be to our great disadvantage.
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@John Corr Haven't been to China, have you? Or even to Asia? You have no idea about the energy that is propelling China forward and how it uses its soft diplomacy and funding to create alliances with other countries. Trump cannot hope to compete for American interests when he rubs elbows with true totalitarian dictators like Putin and Kim Jong Un.
1
Chinese average household income is equivalent to $5,000 with far fewer public services provided by the government. But I'm glad to see the NYT extolling the virtue of dictators progress on the backs of it's people.
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We have decided to decline. We can reverse that decision.
We have decreased our investment in basic science and made it impossible for most young people to obtain a college education without going into crippling debt. Upward mobility declines. Our infrastructure crumbles, and our answer is to cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations. We fail to provide for the medical needs of scores of millions and our infant mortality rate rises while longevity falls. Our population is aging. We promote the use of fossil fuel and destroy our environment in the name of deregulation.
More and more wealth goes into the hands of fewer and fewer people. Our decline is wilful and the result of greed and the maldistribution of wealth.
We are still the preferred destination for millions of people from all over the world, and you can't say that about China. Contrary to what DT says, we are not full up. Controlled immigration is potentially an important resource, but we let racism and religious bigotry prevent us from taking advantage of it.
China has four times the population of the US. Our influence will continue to decline unless we commit to investing in our greatest resource - people. Those who live here and those who want to.
We need a Green New Deal.
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It is good the Han have better lives.
But otherwise who cares what China does or doesn’t do and whether it is or is not a global power? So what if it is, so what if it isn’t.
If an American is being American they don’t care either because they have their hands full leading their own lives. And the south seas will remain open to international shipping.
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@In deed if you don't care China is going to become a superpower and dominance in the world, the jobs will disappear and Amercian people can never afford to buy house, will you still not care ?
I think China may be weak in its psyche more than in reality. Once they learn they need not clamp down on every aberration, then they will be strong in way they are not yet. Sadly, America under Trump is suffering similarly. Only when there is no need to project power will either be truly powerful.
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What? America is stagnating? Can we call TimesUp on Trickle Down? Can we institute a 2% wealth tax on people worth over $50 million? Can we make Amazon pay their taxes?
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How can you seek business contracts, attempt to sell products and services, and simultaneously be forced to share your intellectual property all while decrying China's emergence as a truly global player? You cannot ultimately be in bed with someone and at the same time take a position that they are bad for you. We want money. We want access to the markets and will go to any length to do so. See the NBA. The blind spot seems to be that China supports their businesses as a government they are not free enterprises. The other side of that coin is the glaring abuse of segments of its own population. Suppression of those who dare to speak out even in the most innocuous ways. The latter are things that do not come into play when discussing China. These are best left under the bulging rug.
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China's vast potential is clear in "American Factory." the Oscar-nominated documentary about a Chinese-owned factory in Ohio. Bottom line, U.S. workers just can't compete with our Chinese counterparts.
The difference between the American and Chinese workers was staggering. The fresh-faced ambitious Chinese workers were proud of their jobs, company and country. They're willing to do whatever it takes to ensure quality and meet production schedules, even if that means 12 hour days and working on Sunday.
The American workers were unhealthy, older and slower. They rightly complained about safety, low salaries and production pressures. But there wasn't any sincere enthusiasm for the company or it's products. Meeting production goals was a dreary impossibility rather than a challenge to be met with dedication and optimism.
The U.S. needs to take a page from the Chinese playbook. There's strength in unity and dedication to country and American ideals. And that belief powers hard work and innovation. How can we overcome our current divisions to meet the challenge?
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@Jane - that's fine if you want strict obedience to the head honchos. No talking, no breaks, 28 days in a row working, lousy pay - at $14./hr these folks can't feed a family. Besides which the bloated Chinese billionaire lives like a KING, rules with an iron fist, and mercilessly commands fealty to WORK! I'm sure American workers who are valued by their companies give 100% or more. But to be treated as automatons that work for the glorious state above all else is a throwback to the 19th century robber barons. If that's what makes America great, working for these people, I'll take a pass! They are simply using us, using our resources for China's gain - and no one else's. They also ignore UNIONS, SAFETY STANDARDS, EQUAL EMPLOYMENT, and other issues that we worked hard to obtain - let's see what happens in a few years when Fuyao makes martinets of all their "treasured employees".
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@Jane The problem with American companies is that there is no job security. Layoffs are often the solution to a unprofitable quarter. This makes it hard for anyone who wants to work hard continuously.
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@Jane They i.e. China's workers are not our counterparts. They are not working under a free enterprise system. Can a company here have the financial support of the government of their enterprise whether or not they make a profit? When allegiance is mandated under threat of death or a reeducation center is that real dedication or potentially fear? Many workers here in the U.S. decried the quality being built out of their industries and products. Also, it is a false premise that "all" products made in China are all quality goods. Please note W. Edward Deming an American the "father" of the Quality Evolution (I understand other leaders in this area), not China. Perhaps they so successfully reversed engineered that concept now you think it is their innovation.
Of course China’s economy is growing faster than ours.
They steal intellectual property; we try to stop it.
They manipulate currency; here it’s illegal.
They don’t regulate drugs; our drug companies are heavily regulated.
They allow cloning of animals and even people, not to mention human genetic alterations; we have “ethical” rules against that.
What do you want us to do?
Do you want us to become more like them?
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@Steven Roth This sounds like something Trump would say at a rally. Surely you know better than that.
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You didn’t mention how much they have increased their already massive carbon footprint- progress isn’t always a good sign.
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@Guidomele China does have the largest carbon footprint, but per person, we produce twice as much carbon: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/10296/economics/top-co2-polluters-highest-per-capita/
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@Guidomele : They are much more serious about reducing their carbon footprint than us. They are investing heavily in nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, and wind, and plant 1 million trees a day. You can see the greening of the Gobi desert from space.
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@Guidomele And we have a president who claims that global warming is a hoax, and tens of millions of Americans who believe him.
Amtrak train #50 (The Cardinal) leaves Cincinnati at 3:27 AM and is scheduled to arrive at New York Penn Station 18 hours and 31 minutes later. Service is three times a week.
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@Peter Indeed. This says it all. But Cincinnati has a lovely old train station that houses some nice museums and similar nostalgic stuff.
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This comment says it all!
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The US should certainly pay attention to China’s rise and proceed with a clear strategy, but what hurts us competitively is our unwillingness to adapt. The Trump approach is focused largely on tripping up China, but we are like a racer that is so busy figuring out how to trip up our opponent that we are forgetting to run. We neglect education. We neglect developing future key sectors like green energy and AI. We neglect infrastructure (and information infrastructure) and let wealth imbalance get out of hand (which threatens social stability.)
Even the supposed triumph of the trade pact has warning signs. What is $200 billion of exports (half of which is raw material goods like fuel and agriculture) in the long run? Those are the exports of a colony!
We need to obsess less over China’s development and a bit more on our own. And that doesn’t mean trying to re-live the 1950’s. It means look forward to and anticipating 2050’s.
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@citybumpkin Ignoring global warming as we have makes worrying about 2050 more like escapism than anything real.
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@citybumpkin You are right on. Another reason why we're unwilling to adapt is because we refuse to see the Chinese as they really are, we prefer to characterize them as nothing more than IP thieves, cheating their way to the top, incapable of any kind of innovation or creativity. With that kind of flawed and simplistic thinking, only taking them to task like Trump has is the only solution. It has never been about raising our game with STEM education and having a more competitive workforce, China is convenient economic pinata.
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China is ambitious, to be sure. To a large extent, it's harvested the low-hanging fruit, and the GDP is slowing. Still vigorous, but slowing.
At the macro level, we're witnessing a contest between free western-style capitalist national economies vs. a large, managed semi-capitalist economy. Their interactions induce friction.
Seen from a different perspective, that of the flow of money around the world, the latter is so easy and pervasive that new questions arise regarding mega-corporations as more powerful drivers of economic policies than nations.
An interesting question is: How much does China have invested in U.S. stock markets?
If, for example, The Party, via China's sovereign funds, owns many shares of Apple, or index funds that contain Apple, it can apply pressure on the company to comply with its desires only to the extent at which the stock does not suffer from a loss of sales in China.
Thus it is that for all the heated ultra-nationalistic talk these days, behind the talk, where the big money is, the hippies had it right when they intoned, Ommm... We're all connected. All advantages are temporary.
The world needs leaders who get it, not leaders who act as if it's 1950.
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Mr Leonhardt argues that the demise of the US has resulted in its "semi dysfunctional" government. I would argue the opposite.
Otherwise, an excellent summary.
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At the most basic level, the difference is quite simple: on the one hand you have a country that continues to invest vast amounts of money in the public realm in the way of new infrastructure that makes life better for all involved; on the other, a country that basically deserted its public realm when the Interstate system was more or less completed 50 years ago.
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The planets increasing inhospitably could be a factor that may change the equation for them to the far worse, or not.
And if that isn't bad enough, the past 3+ years has already felt like a decade. Another term is to dark to consider.
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I think Mr. Leonhardt still doesn't understand China with his decade long sightseeing. The strength doesn't depend on America's stagnation, although Chinese think tanks and political leaders welcome Trump's ascension despite the problem of trade war. They welcome the acceleration of the decline. The reason is Chinese civilization and values. The reason Marxism takes root in China and becomes Socialism with Chinese characteristics is because it meshes well with Chinese values and philosophy. Wait until the end of next decade when China finishes the "Red Flag Canal" connecting the waters of Tibet to Xinjiang's desert. I look forward to what Mr. Leonhardt will say then.
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@xeroid47 Although I have spent some time in China, over a 20 year period, I am not Chinese so cannot speak with authority about Chinese values and philosophy. However, Xeroid47's take on this does not mesh with what I have observed. I hope some folks who know more about China than I do will check in about this position.
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As a Chinese high school student came to America shortly after WWII and I am still here enjoying my retired years. I agree with the observations by David Leonhardt. I hope more Americans especially young Americans with an open mind to visit China. They will tell the true story about China to their friends. I am so grateful to American people's helping hands in order to fulfill my American dream. Now is the time for Chinese young and old to inspire all Americans understand China better. I won't be here for another 70 years but my grandchildren will. Thanks Mr. Leonhardt for your penetrating and interesting observations. My father owned a home in Nanjing, No. 10, Beijing Road. The house is still there but now confiscated by the Chinese Communist government in Nanjing. I took a photo of our old home in 1992. Our neighbor was the French Ambassador to China in 1936. They have a tennis court inside their yard. I was a second year elementary school student. I am old but I still lucky to have my memory. America and China should be friends not adversaries. They are competitors. I am proud to be a Chinese American.
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@McLean123 : Thank you for your comment. I want you to know that there are still a lot of Americans that think the U.S. and China should be friends.
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I have lived in Shanghai since 2007. The pace of change here, the growth I have witnessed over the past decade, is breathtaking. You look at Shanghai’s skyline and wonder “Where are the flying cars?” Architecturally, economically, artistically, gastronomically, you name it, this place is burgeoning. I can’t imagine a more exciting place to be. Whereas, on my infrequent visits back to the USA, ennui and resignation seem to have supplanted even anger. Most assuredly China has problems, but the spirit of progress here is infectious.
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@Thomas Caron Three points: 1) If you've been in China that long, you know that life in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing is dramatically different than life in most of the rest of China. 2) The spirit of progress you talk about is getting crushed under Xi's ever growing desire to control all aspects of Chinese life. I've lived there, and many of my friends have mentioned how similarities with the cultural revolution are developing, at a rapid pace. And, 3) As you know, "face" is of major importance in China, and at every level there is a tendency to make life sound/look better than it really is, whether we are talking about government reporting of pollution, GDP, etc, or of individuals driving the BMWs they can't really afford.
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@Thomas Caron Rapid and transformative growth is often present at the beginning of a cycle. Once the economic base is really large (as in the US) growth rates of nine, ten or twelve percent are way, way more difficult to achieve. Even China’s growth rate has slowed somewhat although it is still high.
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@Thomas Caron How is the "progress" on human rights?
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Wait, I thought the only way to have a successful economy was through pure capitalism. Somebody should tell those Chinese folks they're doing it wrong.
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Please do not fall into the "generalizations about Americans" trap. There are more of us who know what (exactly what) is happening in the world than "silence is complicit media". To do so, is to be a participant in this regime's faux world.
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This point captured an striking paradox with the current administration: "President Trump plays a telling role here. More so than his predecessors, he has been willing to treat China as the strategic threat that it is. Yet he is confronting it so hamhandedly as to strengthen China."
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There are many conceptual errors here. China using only one or two apps for "everything" is a weakness, not a strength. Lack of competition, monopolistic centralization of power, isn't good for a nation's economy. China has growing inequality, a stagnated public education system based on rote learning, and a government that is changing in the wrong direction, toward central decision making.
The analysis of the U.S. is telling. You only talk about one president's 3 years, even as you say that China's strength is in thinking about decades at a time. We have structural weaknesses because of Democratic/Republican consensuses that Trump tried to disrupt but was too stupid to. That consensus sent our wealth away from ordinary workers and has been doing so for decades, since Reagan. Clinton was Reagan lite. Obama hardly made a dent with Obamacare, which is under assault. In the long run, Trump will not matter as much as Reagan's successful attack on redistributive taxation in the name of a false theory of growth that wasn't shared.
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@Daniel "There are many conceptual errors here. China using only one or two apps for "everything" is a weakness, not a strength. Lack of competition, monopolistic centralization of power, isn't good for a nation's economy."
So the ubiquity of iphones is a 'weakness' to your mind? Standardizing on one gauge for railroads was a mistake, to your mind?
Much like the iphone, alipay and wechatpay are platforms which support many other features and activities. Their success is due to the fact that they have built thriving ecosystems of other firms and users. There are only 2 dominant mobile device OSs in the US just as there are 2 dominant payment systems in China. What's the difference?
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@Daniel
I was reading about author's touting concentration of online services in China on two platforms and couldn't help but think that it's akin to putting all your eggs in one basket. Once those platforms are hacked, as they inevitably will be and most like already have been by the likes of the NSA, the unimaginable amount of exploitable information becomes available to the hackers. After all, there was a reason why the Chinese broke into the Office of Personnel Management - a single place for information about the US Government employees.
The primary things that will get Trump elected again in 2020 are his disenfranchised base, and their benefactors, China and Russia. But, the big irony here is that most of those who actually cast votes for Trump (his base) will be the biggest losers from Trump's election victory, because despite his anti-immigrant, anti-regulation, anti-outsourcing rhetoric, he isn't doing anything tangible to help these people. The big winners? You already know the answer to that: the rich, Russia, China and North Korea.
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The US needs to embrace their values when dealing with China. We need to make it know that there is room in the world for a prosperous China, but there is no room for authoritarian regimes. Democracy and liberty should be our North Star.
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@NKM We do not have the right to tell other nations how to govern themselves.
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@NKM This is difficult when you have an authoritarian regime in the US.
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As American manufacturers were leaving (and still) in droves, China had no choice but to cave to President Trump. They need American imports more than we need Chinese exports. After incurring steep costs to leave China for other southeast Asia countries.... They won't be back to China.
Good job Mr. President!
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@John S.
China may not be looking to those kinds of jobs for the future; that is one point of this opinion piece. I guess there is no way of removing the Trump blinders.
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@John S. Wishful thinking. Where can the manufacturers go? Vietnam as a small country has already reached limits in capacities and Trump will enforce trade tarrifs on Vietnam soon. Malaysia and Thailand are even smaller countries with more limited capacities.
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China's biggest threat is maintaining all of the infrastructure it's been building. Even the US can't afford to keep roads and bridges properly maintained.
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@Monsp
We can afford it. We choose not to do it. We choose to pay money to billionaire people and businesses instead, through cutting their taxes.
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Trump seems to be looked at as the villain. However, it was during the Bush administration that a lot of the damage happened, and the country- and the world- are still dealing with the consequences. Obama then came in and recovered the Wall-Street economy, but the middle class was basically left to eat cake. All the political capital was spent on healthcare reform which still is riddled with a lot of problems.
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@Mark Browning
an example of "What Americans Don't Understand."
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@Mark Browning
U.S. support for science is still too weak. That is not only Bush's fault.
"Incomes, wealth and life expectancy in the United States have stagnated for much of the population, contributing to an angry national mood and exacerbating political divisions. The result is a semidysfunctional government that is eroding many of the country’s largest advantages over China. The United States is skimping on the investments like education, science and infrastructure that helped make it the world’s great power. "
But the stock market is booming, and unemployment is historically low! What could be wrong?
As you point out David, much is wrong. And much is wrong because the MSM, along with our "leaders" keep Americans in the dark about these issues, while crowing how great things are. But if things are so great, why are so many Americans stressed to the point of using drugs and alcohol to numb themselves, and dying sooner? And raising tariffs aren't going to fix any of this, and will only make things worse.
In short, it's easy to win a race when your opponent runs backward.
The only way to reverse this decades-long situation is to elect someone who will undo the "trickle down" economy America runs on, and restore the wealth robbed from the working and middle class - a.k.a. consumers. Th only ones talking about that are Sanders and Warren, the rest - especially Biden - are willing to accept "incremental change" towards some future promise of improvement. This would simply be a continuation of the Status Quo, and which most Americans are fed up with.
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@Kingfish52
Americans aren't "kept in the dark" Americans choose to live in the dark.
Never before in the history of the human race is so much information available to so many so readily.
5
"There are no bad soldiers, only bad generals" - Napoleon
In the early 60s Singapore was divorced from Malaysia. This left the city/state w/out a hinterland to trade with. Singapore's President Lee Kwan Kew was desperate to make something happen for his country.
To the astonishment of Lee America's <1% was more than happy to export its industrial base & much of its tech to Singapore as an offshore outsourcing center in order to break the backs of the American working class & gain higher ROI. The people who died protecting America in Europe, the Pacific, Korea & later Vietnam were summarily thrown under the bus for the sake of higher profit margins.
In other countries, Gemany & Japan in particular, the social contract between labor & capital was refined. In Germany labor sat on the board of directors: unions/workers knew when they were asking too much & managers opted for market share growth instead of ROI as a success paradigm. In Japan employees were given tenure but only company unions: that modeled had the same affect on boards & produced an even better worker to company relationship & productivity. The point is America's elite chose to break the working class not advance it. The median wage has been flat since 1972 despite growing 150% since then.
China's growth didn't begin until Deng in 1978. That's 6 years after the last raise in the U.S. median wage. Ethics is a middle class characteristic. America sold its own people down the river.
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@Tim Kane
Not all nations have elites as bad as the U.S.
Since 72 GNP has grown 150% but median wage has been flat.
Stunning how the US sent working class to fight communist in Vietnam then 6 years later shipped factories to Chinese communist dictatorship.
As ethnic Chinese, Kew and Deng had a relationship. Deng asked for advice in 1978 on how to most rapidly improve China. Kew of course suggested the outsourcing model for American capitalist: provide first class infrastructure w/ cheap disciplined labor with strong english language skills, roll out the red carpet for the executives & feed their egos as masters of the universe that they think they are.
(See The Miracle: Asia's Quest for Wealth)
Japan & Korea took another tact. Targeting industries ripe for a combination of import substitution & export promotion w/ cheap capital. Japan erected barriers (tariff & nontariff) for industries Japanese was on the cusp of mass consumption; then granted loan guarantees to capital investment in targeted industries & allowed for "overloaning" creating a "big push" (See Robert Allen's Economic History: A very short Introduction; Chalmers Johnson on MITI & the Japanese Miracle). This created cos hyper capitalized, hyper competive sectors w/ excess capacity. Roughly a 3rd to a half of US auto capacity was off shored. Korea followed suit. China grew under the Singapore model & simultaneously has adopted much of the Japanese model w/ exceptions for Chinese dictatorship.
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@Tim Kane
On flat median wage vs GNP see:
Bit.ly/EPI-study
Graph #2 (the aligator graph).
From 1945 to 1972 GNP grew about 100% and the median (meaning everone's) wage grew in lock step with it.
Since 1972 GNP has grown over 150% more but the median wage has been flat. Nearly all (roughly 90% of) the wealth gained has flowed to the <1%. (The top 1% have only seen 10% in gains)
Since some workers wages have gone up (tech/health) & some in decent unions have floated okay (7%) we know that the broad majority of workers have had 48+ years of declining expectations in an economy that has grown over 150%!
This has gotten us protofascism, an opioid crisis and Trump.
We can presume for workers America was "great" between 1945 & 1972.
This trend was not possible w/out complicity from elites in both parties. It's created a seam so great that Putin can see (& exploit it with ease) from his window.
This trend makes the case for the progressive movement & we can expect elites from both parties to resist progressivism. But at some point working class Americans will begin to vote in their own best interests.
On the other hand, some workers will take their opioids & go quietly. However, we cannot expect all workers to go quietly into that good night. It's Bernie now, or another Bernie later & if not, mobs w/ pitchforks later still.
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@Tim Kane What you describe is the route of capitalism all over the planet. Businesses must make a profit and if they can do it with government help that’s great for them. If not they must do it anyway. That is the a-moral bottom line of Capitalism: reduce costs to maximize profit. Ethics and human harm do not enter into the equation. Companies go to where they have the least restrictions and the most profit. Without understanding that, people in advanced nations end up bickering about crumbs.
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Thank you for a balanced look at both China and the US.
China realizes that it has to raise the living standards of all its people to maintain political power.
The US realizes that it has to raise the living standards of the wealthy donor class to maintain political power.
As the author's notes from 2010 demonstrate, China recognizes the problems and acts to correct them. The US recognizes the problems and chooses to make them worse.
The US continues to live in its 'Exceptionalism' delusion as it crumble internally and throughout the world.
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@JMC
Aptly expressed JMC.
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@JMC When ones abuses their power with repeated lies and deaths, they would face their own karma. Karma is powerful and inescapable!
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@JMC: Our goal needs not to be some competition with China, but focus on our own and the world's needs, foremost of which is to cope with greenhouse gas accumulation. Second, having thus helped assure the continuation of human life on earth, we should concentrate on encouraging the health and welfare of our people. Becoming militarily dominant in Asia detracts from achieving those goals. It is a pointless waste of energy and resources. One man's opinion.
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Obsessing over the comparisons between the US and China is counterproductive. We should be celebrating rather than begrudging China’s advancement. Our focus should be on peaceful coexistence, planet sustainability and prosperity-sharing. All deserve live happily and healthily.
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@Peabody
"China's advancement" and "planet sustainability" are mutually exclusive.
1
Thank you for this update. It seems balanced and one that we need to pay attention to in 2020.
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@Matt Goldner
The thing about this is that Trump has been instrumental in cutting back on science research and increasingly doing so. Besides in wanting to eliminate research on climate disruption he is cutting back across the board.
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@Peter Taylor
This has been U.S. behavior for much longer than the Trump era.
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I wanted to write a great deal more, but I realized I was just rehashing what you had already concisely laid out. I agree with you--unfortunately for the US.
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The number one reason for China's rapid growth is that its productivity per worker had been substantially below it potential and its now catching up. Public education policies have a lot to do with it. China's growth does not stem from the weakness of other countries. That is wrong. Economics 101.
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@David GDP = Output per person x Population