Not only are the “deals” with Mexico and China more about lawless hand overs to other economies so selfish and incompetent in nature as to give our oil and soy exports to Russia and Brazil, but there are also deals BETWEEN Mexico and China, both legal in auto manufacturing and illegal strip mines in failed states. That didn’t happen before Trump.
The Trump disadministration so profoundly lacks credibility that even if by some miracle China did renew its soy contracts American farmers will not reliably plant new soy crops for the spring growing season. None of Trump’s promises materialize. Only thing reliable about Trump is the price tag stuck to his shoe.
Republican Senators are losing farmers and the working class over this charade. Dump Trump.
4
The "experts" have been saying the same thing since he came down the escalator, and have been wrong every time. The "experts" claimed the economy would crash if he wins, well? The "experts' claimed his tax plan would ruin the economy driving us back into a recession,well, wrong again. You cant argue about the numbers, wages have tripled since Obama, lowest unemployment in our countries history, not to mention the USMCA he got with bipartisan support, and now phase one deal with China.
4
wages have tripled? where? name one city or industry?
3
Create a fake crisis; achieve record TV 'ratings'; solve the fake crisis and declare 'victory'.
The Art of the Hyped Fake Deal strikes again.
At least billionaires and farmers got their welfare payments while exploding the national debt at the expense of the middle class, the poor and the American common good.
Dupe America Again: Trump 2020
134
@Socrates
‘Megxit’ is more important. Vegas odds for 2020:
-135 Trump
1
@Socrates Please explain how China stealing our technology and jobs for 40 years is not a crisis?
6
@JGaltTX
You are probably holding the answer in your hand. That cheap iphone is the trade off. US corporations eagerly gave away their technology to build cheaper gadgets and enter a billion people market. The Chinese just took advantage of our greed.
8
Obama inherited an economy in deep crisis. Trump inherited an economy in comparatively great health.
The real question should be, "How have Trump and Republicans damaged an already roaring economy for short term political gain"? In order to further "spur" a racing economic horse, they greatly lowered the taxes on the wealthy and corporations, pushed the Fed to lower interest rates, and despite this, the GDP and unemployment numbers have barely budged, while running up a $2 trillion deficit in 2018/19.
Clearly, the stock market boomed under Obama as well (up about 11,000 points over 7 years as opposed to Trump 10,000 over 3 years). Between 2009 and 2016 the unemployment rate lowered 5.3% under Obama. Under 3 years of Trump, it lowered a further 1.2%. Under 7 years of Obama GDP increased an avg. of 2.17% per year. Under 3 years of Trump it is expected to rise an average of about 2.4% once 2019 is calculated. Meanwhile, under Trump, a $2 trillion deficit due to the tax cut.
On the one hand Trump tries to take credit for the rising of the sun. On the other, it seems Trump thinks the U.S. can get out of a financial hole by declaring bankruptcy, as he did personally.
18
Actually, you’re understating Obama’s record.
https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/9-charts-comparing-trump-economy-to-obama-bush-administrations-2019-9
3
I read somewhere that big banks had been given tax cuts as well. What about the nations debt being paid off. It's like he's working for the wealthy and not the nation as a whole. That isn't patriotic. What is the USA governments net debt of G.D.P. Instead of giving tax cuts to the rich, shouldn't the irresponsible president be paying down some of the nations debt.
2
Our government in NZ has a strategy and doesn't hope anything. Apparently, our government is using any surpluses it has, to future proof our nation from any unforeseen catastrophes. NZ governments net debt is 20.1% of G.D.P. (Gross Domestic Product)
1
Trump the simpleton starts a trade war and then claims a shallow victory. He has accomplished nothing during his entire administration, except possibly sweeten profits for his Trump Organization. He is the head of a dysfunctional government with no credibility…..the most incompetent, divisive and corrupt President in the history of the United States. A disgrace to America. Vote 2020!
4
Economic expansion, growth, follows demand. No increasing demand, no opportunities to make more money from investments. Capital does not create demand but rising consumer ability to buy, does. Tariffs are protective not stimulative. Trade agreements are constraints not stimuli. Our country’s consumers are tapped out for the present. If Trump wants to generate expansion, he should start with government infrastructure projects and move into expanding and upgrading telecommunications systems, and replacing energy systems which rely upon burning hydrocarbons. That will boost demand and give consumers more money to spend.
2
Too bad financial experts/opinionators referenced on these pages aren't required to have an actual or hypothetical Financial portfolio reflecting out comes of investments based on stated opinions.
Following most economic opinions stated here in last 3 years would have indicated to shorting the markets and receiving severe haircuts.
1
Trump is very eager to contradict what people who actually study how the economy works if it suits his intuitions. He never actually studies, anything except the mass media as a viewer, and he is the dilettante extraordinaire, and remarkably uninformed. But, as with everything regarding Trump's expositions, we await independent corroboration.
2
Trump would like it a lot better if everybody accepted that if he and his administration says it's so, it's so. Republicans in general are heavy into the concept of what you can make people believe is reality. They rely on propaganda; military style information warfare, and actually benefit from the influence operations of the Nation's adversaries like Russia. The Free Press must continue doing its job. Truth is knowable. Call out Trump and the Republicans on everything, especially things like economics and the economy. They are not good-faith contributors to the National discourse.
3
how did that "tax cut paying for itself" work out?
4
With the national minimum wage at HALF what it should be, there will be no "jolt" to the economy. Revenue requires the middle class positioned to put more money into the economy, but they cannot, not if they're barely making ends meet, a FACT the rich (really?), spoiled, inconsiderate, corrupt crook in the WH will never understand (he has no capacity).
The Dow is NOT the true measure of our economy.
3
"... begin purchasing American crops... growth may be slowed by troubles at Boeing...other forecasts are less optimistic." Looks more like a PR stunt for a hot dog stand. As fir business investment, invest in what, specifically? The next tweet?
The classic line "businesses using China as a platform for products destined for the U.S. market" could even mean secondary sourcing. To get around US tariffs, buy in China and then export to the US from somewhere else to avoid tariffs?
If certainty is a critical factor, and this blurry load of garbage boots certainty, the only real certainty is more uncertainty. The Great Chosen Stable Genius has yet again failed to deliiver anything that wouldn't have been delivered without is trade tantrums. Check out the NYT article on "basking with forporate friends" while you're at it. Nauseating is not the word.
Why would anyone be skeptical of Trump Administration claims?
Here’s why:
“The tax cuts will pay for themselves.” Instead, and inevitably, we have the largest federal deficit in history and still growing.
“China is paying us billions and billions of dollars in tariffs.” No, any school kid knows that tariffs on imported goods are paid by the purchaser of the goods, i.e., American importers, distributors, manufacturers and ultimately American retail consumers.
“We’re opening up the mines, opening up the factories, millions of jobs.” No, in fact the manufacturing sector is in decline and the mining industry employs the same paltry 50,000 workers that it has for quite some time. Coal mining employment in particular peaked around 1925 at 850,000 and has been on a downward march ever since.
As for growth in GDP, it’s stuck around 2%. The ”Trump economic miracle” is a fantasy. Those feeling less charitable might just call it a lie.
Expect similar results from the super duper new and improved large economy size trade deals, which are in reality relatively minor tweaks of pre-existing trade pacts.
Sure, stocks continue to soar, and why not? Republican policies and low interest rates have accelerated our already toxic inequality of opportunity, income and assets; and funneled productivity gains and economic growth from the working class to the wealthy. Asset valuations are sure to follow.
How in heck any of that passes for ‘populism’ I will never, ever know.
4
By now, everyone should realize that Trump destroys everything he touches. He tosses hand grenades into issues, blows them up and then we go through months/yerars of wasted time and effort to get back to essentially the same place we started and Trump claims a big, really Big, BIG victory.
In the meantime he's going contrary to establish policy and law every chance he gets. The destructive path he's on continues. 'Donny The Menace' seems an appropriate nickname for him.
4
Hope is not a strategy.
2
@Gazbo Fernandez A very sharp observation!
China is going to do what they were going to do anyway before Trump's minions started this foofaraw. Some deal. The USMCA is merely a tweak on NAFTA. Trump is lazy and inept and so are his minions. The economists consulted are politely saying that if the lot of them would just go crawl back under their rocks, trade would improve.
3
A very lousy deal because Trump’s capricious choke hold on the economy via tariffs and sanctions will continue.
We cannot perform a controlled experiment relative to how the economy would perform under global free trade agreements. In a different world corporations would have much greater confidence to invest and grow, not be on edge about the levels or imminence of tariffs and sanctions.
Under this deal Premier Xi would be considered lax by his politburo if China did not continue to steal intellectual property and drive its trucks through gaping holes in the new trade agreement, given Trump’s lousy reputation. A laughing stock!
13
Like his promise that his economic acumen would raise GDP to 3 or 4 percent per year.
Like his promise that his economic acumen would lower the national debt to the point of extinction.
Like his promise that his economic acumen would create a lower cost medical insurance costs with broader coverage.
Like his promise that his economic acumen would result in terrific trade agreements with the Trans-Pacific nations.
Like his promise............
3
People with money in the bank are patiently waiting for a crash so they can buy a cheap rental. What goes up must come down. Those who forget history are condemned to relive it.
3
Any economic growth is not because of Trump, it is in spite of Trump. Even the slight improvements in USMCA vs NAFTA are the result of House Democrats and labor leaders, who had to fight against the Trump White House to improve the agreement.
5
Well the NZ stock market has risen on this news, as well. Though I wouldn't put my money in the stock market as it is always sky high just before a bust. My father has his savings in the stockmarket and lost all his savings and my mum had hers in the bank and lost nothing. So stick with the boring old bank because at the end of the day you still have money and not just worthless stocks.
2
Do you remember when Paul Krugman of the NYtimes predicted that Trump would destroy the American economy? I think it was the day after Trump was elected. Considering how this president has performed, it's about time the "experts" reconsider their forecasts and save themselves further embarrassment.
4
@Mark
While Krugman wasn't entirely right, he also isn't entirely wrong. We can thank the Donald for the trillion dollar deficit and all those tariffs being paid by us the consurmers which divert monies which could be better used to purchases goods. This increases the economy while what he has done diminishes it.
2
Trump likes to display like a peacock seeking a hen. He claims victory no matter what are the facts. Listen to the experts and let the fools listen to Trump.
2
Typical Trump: Cause a problem for no reason, indeed use the wrong strategy to solve the problem. then "negotiate" a poor deal for America and let the other country off the hook. Then claim victory when your partial, useless deal is signed.
Trump is the worst negotiate ever. A total disaster for the US.
If he has simply put thru the TPP, which was designed to isolate China from other Asian countries, he would have had a much stronger hand in negotiating with China. Stupidly he threw it out. Now he has almost nothing to show after charging Americans billions in tariff taxes (are we going to get a refund for those?). All the "China to buy American stuff" will only take us back to square one. No gains whatsoever. What a fool. And anyone believing him is a bigger fool
3
oh! you mean the same experts who predicted a stock market armeggedon and global economic holocaust? that the whole world would go down in war and flames, and that trump would basically ruin the world? that a trade war would be an absolute disaster? that blacks and hispanics would suffer grievously under the racist trump.
those experts??
oh. ok.
3
If they don't boost growth, Trump will lie and say they have.
3
"The World Bank said last week that it expected the United States economy to grow by 1.8 percent this year.", which is lower than the projected rate of inflation.
4
I hate to say it, but at this point I believe Trump more than I believe the "experts." The "experts" have been wrong on just about every economic prediction they've made during Trump's presidency. There's lots wrong with Trump, but on the economy, frankly, he seems more clear-eyed to me (and right!) than a lot of economists.
5
What I read about business investment is that Trump caused it to slow down with his trade disruption and once anything is nailed down, anything at all, business will have the stability needed to start investing again. Sounds typical. Trump starts a fire, puts it out and claims credit.
1
This article continues the pattern of the media only reporting on the economy as it relates to corporations and Wall St., while ignoring the effect of the single biggest factor in our consumer-driven economy: consumers, a.k.a. the working and middle class. And because of this failure to account for this, the MSM and the "experts" are consistently baffled as to why the economy is still dragging.
It's astounding really, that supposedly smart people don't get this. When we talk of trade, exports, and imports, we're not talking about the U.S. shipping $200 billion of crops to China where a Chinese State Buyer pays for them. What happens is that Chinese consumers buy them. Likewise when we import goods, we don't have a U.S. Buyer sending a check to the foreign country for the goods, it requires that U.S. consumers buy them. And in all cases, in all countries, this requires the consumers to have enough disposable income to make these purchases. But, when jobs and wages are suppressed for decades, this doesn't happen, and the economy breaks down into "boom and bust" cycles, rewarding ultra-wealthy investors who can withstand the busts, and profit from them.
This is why Trump's loud proclamations about how he's going to fix the economy are empty. The ONLY way to fix things is to undo the "trickle down" mechanisms that have been in place since Reagan. This is what Sanders and Warren are calling for. If Americans want true prosperity, they need to vote for one of these two.
9
Well, the "experts" that are actually putting their money where their mouths are just took the US stock market, past 29,000 (Dow) and still going up.
Obviously all the major markets think this is a very positive development. And people are putting real money, not just words, behind it.
3
@Baron95 Most of the people can't put in real money because, after decades of "trickle down", they don't have any. Does this disqualify them from a serious conversation.
3
When do we get a refund on the tariff taxes we have been paying for the last years? Trump owes us.
9
Well then, he should bring in a nationwide minimum wage of $20 an hour like Australia and New Zealand have; and give something back to the working public. The 1% have had their tax cuts so now he can do what Australia has done; make the first $20,000 of income TAX FREE.
6
Actually those earning less than $50,000 a year effectively pay no federal taxes after the new tax law. Less than six percent of federal income taxes are collected from them. Those with the top fifteen percent of incomes pay over seventy percent of all federal personal income taxes. Why do you want people who earn between $20,000 and $50,000 a year to pay far more in taxes?
Experts also predicted that we would be at war with Iran because of the killing of Soleimani.
The experts were wrong.
1
His amazing trade deal is another example of him creating discord and disruption that has actually hurt trade (farmers hit hard), to come in at an opportune moment (distraction from impeachment and the near disaster in Iran), re-enact a slightly altered version of the agreement he tore up, claim victory, pat himself on the back, then tell his MAGA hat rally goers how he beat up China and saved America.
Same story, same act, same cake with a few sprinkles added to the icing.
6
The dotard just signed back into place what was there already.
Just called them a different name !
China plays the long game, and while Phase 1 is no different to what was already there, they will wait til he is out of office next year and renegotiate with a new administration.
3
It doesn't matter how great the economy is if it doesn't filter down to the voting public. Parents with kids will vote for their kids futures. Not much good having a great economy if you don't have a house to live in, clean drinking water, no pollution, food to eat, high debt because the cost of living is too high and you don't earn a liveable wage. Your health is your wealth.
6
Being a patriotic kiwi all I'm interested in is whether or not it would affect our exports to China. Apparently not, as we export diary to China, and it's exports like soya beans that will double for USA. In NZ news I read that USA won't be able to fill the order for the amount of soya beans China requires, because of the magnitude of the beans required.
1
what does it matter even if it does bolster growth? a lot of us wont see any of that money anyway.
3
Well, the GOP tax plan delivered a jolt -
"Budget Deficit Topped $1 Trillion in 2019
The budget gap widened despite a growing economy, hitting its highest level since 2012"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/business/budget-deficit-1-trillion-trump.html
Anyone remember when Republicans claimed deficits were bad, and they claimed they were serious about reducing deficits? Ha.
8
Are these the same experts who predicted a recession in 2019? Who guaranteed the inverted yield curve proved Trump was ruining the economy?
6
Phase 1. Actually back to no where. Dropped a few tariffs, stopped some really damaging ones from happening that would have cost US consumers more billions. No real changes and phase 2 will be very difficult if not impossible.
Meanwhile US consumers have paid billions, farmers on welfare, manufacturing jobs lost and many many markets lost that will be gone forever. Meanwhile China is doing fine.
2
As I recall, the economists predicted the trade war would slow GDP, and that was why Trump's tariffs were a bad thing. So, are these the same economists predicting no impact on the reduction of tariffs? Or is this cherry picking?
3
GDP growth will be 6%, right? So much winning....
Anyway, back in reality, if a trade deal that basically only partially rescinds the actions of the trade war Trump started is supposed to bolster growth, isn't that just the administration admitting that the trade war hurt growth?
2
This article misses two important points:
First, how much will an executive agreement reduce uncertainty? It can be torn up with 6 days' notice from either side. On the US side within a year that person could be a Democrat, whose party has completely disagreed with Trump's go-it-alone approach. And even before then, Trump, himself, may tear it up in a fit of rage if he sees something on TV that suggests China gained more from the deal than the US did. Is that really an unreasonable scenario?
Second, there's little discussion about how much the increased exports to China from the US will cannibalize other markets. Does China actually need more soy beans on a net basis? If not, then they'll import less from Brazil and more from us. But then we would export less to the EU and Brazil would export more. Same goes for any other commodity. Unless there is a net increase in global demand that the US is now getting a larger piece of thanks to this deal, it's not really a benefit for us.
4
@JS
On point 1 you are correct which is why Trump is keeping $370B in tariffs in place. This is the gun to the head to make sure China follows up. As to what a democratic president would do who knows.
On point 2 I see your logic. But when tariffs were first applied and China stopped purchasing them, US soybean price plummeted. It would seem only logical then that they will go up and benefit farmers once China begins buying again.
1
This should be an opinion article, given that the NYTimes is arbitrarily choosing experts that disagree with Trump, despite the fact that many economic experts agree that the end of the trade war is a positive and significant event for growth. These types of articles show a bias against Trump, which shouldn't be necessary.
5
Because he is solving a problem he created. It's known as Munchausen Syndrome by Proxy.
4
Since facts have a bias against Trump, hand picking experts who disagree with him isn’t necessary.
2
The last certain expert prediction as I recall was that Hillary was to be POTUS. . . . But please experts, continue to try to prove the worth of your existence.
2
@John Doe I sure wish the Expert in Chief, who claims to be the best in just about everything, would prove the worth of his human existence, sooner rather than later.
Who would believe one single word anyone in the Trump administration has to say about anything?
6
I’m sure glad that those in the Trump Administration who are providing information that can remove Trump from office should not be believed.
I can't think of a headline that would push Republicans' buttons more.
9
@Anne
What you really mean is that the Democrats are praying for a recession, and the more economic pain to American citizens, the better.
1
@G Democrats are indeed praying......for a fair election, free of foreign influence and money.
3
@Anne The truth hurts, and the repubs want no part of truth.
4
Always remember that Trump has spent his entire adult life as a cheap con man. If he says the sun is shining, you can assume it’s raining. His so-called trade agreement with China is just another diversionary tactic and a con to fool his followers into believing he is accomplishing something besides racking up a record number of golf games.
49
I just wonder, if ending these trade wars and reducing tariffs is not going to increase GDP growth, according to the "experts," then why did the same "experts" uniformly predict that imposing them two years ago was going to be a disaster because it would depress GDP growth?
Either trade wars and high tariffs hurt GDP growth or they don't. It would seem that you can't have it with ways. Unless you are part of the establishment that must find a way to criticize Donald Trump no matter what he does.
2
Trumpe said that Trade Wars were easy to win, but since he started the Trade War, 40% of farm income is now paid by Government Subsidies which is a form of Socialism and those are mostly going to the large Corporate Farms, some of them Chinese owned, while family farms have seen a 26% growth in Bankruptcies. He's now spent more money on farmers than Obama paid to save the American auto industry and the auto industry paid the tax payers back. Now, he's talking about Government subsidies for the Coal Industry. In addition, his latest deal gives China a win and nothing for the United States. Why should anyone vote for him again?
8
Philadelphia Fed 2018 Q4 survey of professional forecasters has the median forecast for 2020 GDP growth at 1.8 per cent.
The World Bank projects in Global Economic Perspectives that the US will have GDP growth in 2020 of 1.8 per cent.
The IMF projects 2020 US GDP growth of 2.1 per cent per the World Economic Outlook released in October 2019.
The OECD projects for 2020 US GDP growth at 1.98 per cent.
We can stop pretending now that the only people saying that growth is about 1.9 plus or minus 0.2 per cent are unnamed nobodies.
5
They predicted huge growth from the tax cuts.....how did that work?
13
They neglected to mention all that growth would be exclusively in the rich man’s pocket.
4
@Colonel Belvedere ....Also neglected to mention that the budget deficit was increased by $400 billion dollars.
4
Can you better identify the "experts" that disagree please. Are they far left leaning folks that align with the far left, which has become the democrat party today. Hardly independent voices.
1
Considering historic low interest rates and massive governmental fiscal stimulus to the tune of $1 Trillion dollars added to the federal deficit each year the differences in growth rates that are being predicted seem rather small. Regardless of “far left” or “far right” voices my question is are we even measuring the right thing. Will any of this actually make the typical American better off?
4
NYT last year: trumps tariffs will negatively impact the economy.
NYT today: trump removing tariffs will have no impact on the economy.
Honestly you guys are becoming the caricature he’s making you out to be.
Of course free trade deals will have a positive impact. Just as the lack of free trade deals has a negative impact. That’s Economics 101.
You can argue with the inconsistency of the strategy, but he can’t be wrong to impose tariffs AND wrong to remove them. Donald trump takes so many positions that It would be impossible for him to be wrong on 100% of them, but still the NYT tries to make it so.
5
Is one of those experts Krugman?
3
Trump literally finds the Constitution to be too difficult to read.
Why should Americans assume that his grasp of Economics and Trade are any better than his grasp on literacy and reading comprehension?
5
“Experts don’t agree” falsely implies no experts agree. But “some experts disagree” doesn’t make a very snappy headline. But it is fake news.
2
@Stephen Gianelli About as fake as Fallschirmjager floating down in 1941.
Well, of course it will super-charge economic growth with huge exports to China! Its the best ever deal, the greatest and certainly far better than anything any President has ever negotiated with any other country, ever! China will buy my steaks (scrumptious!) and enrollment in my new on-line College of Hucksterism (you can fool enough people to get rich quick!) will surge!!
Trump's "innocent hyperbole" and innate hucksterism at work yet again.
44
“Experts”, lol!!! The same that predicted Trumps tariffs would harm the economy, the same that totally missed the 2008 big depression, the same that predicted 2019 wouldn’t be a great year for stocks, the same that predicted Trump would loose the election, etc., etc,...
4
There are "experts" who disagree on everything including global warming. What's your point?
1
Trump is all full of himself - again - over this latest trade deal. But I have yet to hear from him exactly why he thinks it's so great. What makes this deal sooooo much better than what we had before?
If Trump was a football coach, he would declare every game his team played to be yet another blowout win, regardless of what the TV playbacks showed. What a total fool.
2
Trump is just a baffoon and full of hot air!
Always assume he is lying first - than your chances of getting it right increase 100fold!
4
When the NYT says, "Experts don't agree" I read, "experts chosen by the NYT do not agree." In other words it is not news.
I do not expect an unbiased analysis from the NYT, and only time will tell. Sorry NYT!
2
When you bang your head against the wall for a year, it may feel better when you stop, but your head will be in worse shape.
2
The deal, like the tax cut for the one-ercenters, is all about politics, not the real world. Mister Trump gets free press attention for a con job. And this from a guy who knows all too well what bankruptcy is all about.
2
Not much fun being a reader looking for information anymore. Trump says he and everything he does is perfect. The Nytimes and the democrats say everything is terrible and couldn’t be any worse unless trump is re-elected. To even a casual observer none of this is true. Absolutes make people look like idiots.
1
At this point, there is simply no reason to take anything anyone in the Trump Administration says seriously.
2
We are at the point where we can only expect lies out of the White House.
There is not a less credible government on the world stage.
The only debate is over the size of the fibs, and if the actions are criminal.
4
What about the timing of this announcement—which coincides with the articles of impeachment bring passed to the Senate?
Lies and more lies. Enough.
Any decent senators remaining in the Senate representing the people, for the good of the people and defending the Constitution for the people?
Please, please Decent Senators — please push for John Bolton to testify and other pertinent witnesses to go in front of the Senate. Or else— you, The Senators will be complicit in the farce of which this Trump government represents.
28
@Jocejoce
It coincided with the impeachment because Nancy Pelosi decided that impeachment wasn't so urgent after all.
On Trade with low wage countries
Global , tariff free, trade MUST move the average wage towards the global average wage.
That is down in the US, for US workers exposed to it, and up, in China, for Chinese workers exposed to it.
As to economic experts, many have made their career to formulate theories that pleased the elites. And thus denied this elementary fact.
More recently, it tentative evidence has emerged that suggests that not only US wages moves towards the global average, but also their life span. This is a complex topic that deserves more study
As to economic experts , their past escape to reject the elementary fact that US wages had to move to the global average, was to tell workers to move up the value chain. Let them become coders
These experts overlooked that low wage countries would do as well , and sometimes better. IBM now has more employees in India than in the US
China is ahead in quantum based information transmission, artificial intelligence, and high speed trains.
And all that at still much lower salaries. The average monthly pay of 2018 college graduates in China is 5,429 yuan ($828.74).
And thus the incentives to move more jobs to China persists - unless trade is managed to protect industries in the US
1
Wanna know what the dead giveaway is? The same people who say these “new” agreements will boost the economy are the same people who said the tax cuts would pay for themselves and increase wages.
They’re also the same people who think it’s okay to give farmers $20 Billion in welfare in exchange for votes. Those farmers literally call it “Trump money.”
27
The USMCA is really NAFTA 2.0 with minimal changes. The China Deal moves away from a free-market system for agriculture to a managed market with China all while keeping many tariffs in place.
Now I am supposed to believe that this is going to be some great Trumpian economic panacea. Count me as skeptic. No, count me as very concerned.
13
Since trump does nothing but lie why would anyone believe him or his administration about the effects of these trade deals.
23
On the new trade agreement with Mexico . Vox
Quote
Trump’s new trade deal is better for workers than NAFTA was
"the most striking difference from NAFTA involves protections for workers in all three countries. Mexico has agreed to pass laws giving workers the right to real union representation, to extend labor protections to migrant workers (who are often from Central America), and to protect women from discrimination.
"American auto companies that assemble their cars in Mexico would also have to use more US-made car parts to avoid tariffs, which would help US factory workers. And about 40 percent of those cars would have to be made by workers earning at least $16 an hour — three times more than Mexico’s minimum wage for an entire work day."
" When NAFTA was enacted in 1994, labor unions worried at the time that allowing goods to cross the border untaxed would give US manufacturers too much incentive to move factories and jobs to Mexico, where wages were super low and environmental standards more relaxed."
Vox 2018/10/2/
And this is what happened.
Read : Becoming a Steel Worker Liberated Her than Her Job Moved to Mexico.
The Democrats had 8 years to fix the old NAFTA. Sadly it took Trump to do it.
5
@Woof Are we now counting robots and automated systems as workers? Yes, domestic production may see an increase, that doesn't necessarily translate into jobs for human workers. More and more production is being automated.
4
True. So why does the left continue to want to flood the country with cheap labor in the form of immigrants? Anybody who really cares about workers and their rights should calling for a restriction on low wage immigrants in the face of job losses due to automation.
3
@Woof trump hasn't fixed anything. He created a mess with China and all he did was undo some of the damage he created. And NAFTA 2.0 such a great move that Detroit Steel just eliminated 1500 jobs and now Ford will no longer make Focus Fusion and Fiesta in the U.S.
You don't just flip a switch and the economy instantly perks up. That only works for Wall Street, who responds to news like this in a Pavlovian fashion, and is by no means a gauge of the economy's actual health. Trump's base didn't see a dime from his tax cut show up in their pockets and they won't derive any benefit from this deal before the election, yet they're all convinced they've never had it so good. No wonder he loves the uneducated.
16
From a layman’s perspective it looks like Trump has artificially made the economy look good by grotesquely driving up the national debt. Future generations of Americans will be paying dearly for Trump’s financial con jobs.
19
Democratic candidates should label trump as a flip flopper, “governing like a democrat” as he is doing the exact opposite of what he campaigned on.
4
Actually, doing the opposite of what they campaign on is a hallmark of Republican political elites.
Why the need for more growth? President Trump says that the current 2% GDP growth is "the greatest economy of all time"?
3
With deregulation and a corporate tax cut, Trump promised us a growth rate of 4-5%. So where is it? Let's tackle that question before relying on Steve Mnuchin's fabulations.
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All the deal does is work towards what was. At least the uncertainty is gone but NAFTA and the China deal are just minor tweaks to what was.
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Look at:
ANNEX 6.1
INCREASES IN U.S. EXPORTS TO CHINA OVER 2 YEARS
for the details on the $200 billion, total, over two years, based on the 2017 baseline.
For instance, the increase in agriculture is $12.5 billion in the first year and $19.5 in the second year. It was about $20 billion in 2017, so indeed it is a nice increase.
Except it was $26 billion in 2012.
Oh, and this is only a two-year deal .... and a whole lot of the "agriculture" stuff is not corn and soybeans.
And ... isn't there a law of supply and demand? Doesn't this imply that prices might go up?
Yeah, all those complicated facts.
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Are these the same experts who predicted a stock market collapse and depression immediately after the President's election in 2016?
5
@mbpman
Or are they the same ones who predicted 4 and 5% GDP growth under this President
7
First of all the revised trade deal with Mexico and Canada is not a Trump deal.
The deal his "negotiated" was pretty much in the end when you read the fine print the status quo of the original deal.
The new deal is the one revised by democrats but that too is subject in the end to scrutiny if it truly brings back any jobs.
The China "prelim deal" is a joke. It has a couple of make me look good Trump things in it for the upcoming election, like them buying more food but subject to China doing it and bringing back what was there already until Trump blundered into a massive trade war with China where nobody will win.
10
Fool me once, fie on me; fool me twice fie on thee! Tax cuts did not work as promised; Trump's trade war "win" wont either. Trillion dollar deficits under Trump and we are back to 2 percent growth......
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Trump should just declare that the US economy is growing at 5% annually. His troops will believe him and consider anything contrary as fake news.
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You mean Left leaning, Never Trump-ers don't agree
4
I guess some of us look at the facts.
2
Will China build ' the Wall' and make Mexico pay for it?
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In many ways this “Phase 1” restores the status quo ante regarding US agriculture product purchases by China, and follows the Trump model of governing: Blow something up, rant on about “bad deals”, then claim to fix the problem he caused by essentially returning to conditions before the blow-up. Ignoramus.
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As always, the question to ask is: what did Trump give to get the economy he keeps yapping about?
I think he gave the country’s future—and possibly the planet’s. You hand me a credit card that works by sucking the next century dry, and I promise you, I’ll create ya some prosperity.
For a while.
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Who are these experts? Krugman, who said the stock market would collapse if Trump was elected? Who else?
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@Jerry who were the experts that said if trump was elected 5% 6% GDP
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Trump's China tariffs have devastated tool and die suppliers and distributors in the plastics industry. Over past decades plastic products manufacturers have often relied on distributors to maintain equipment such as mold machines to make car dashboards or medical tubing or thousands of other plastic products. Many of the replaceable parts carried by distributors, such as mold ejector pins for example, are made in China, but the tariff has caused the prices to skyrocket. Now the manufacturers go to China directly and purchase entire new mold machines instead of purchasing replaceable components, bypassing distributors. No one benefits from this: not the manufacturer, the middleman, the consumer, nor the laid off employees.
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While studying for my MS Economics I found out very early that it isn't an exact science. Most "experts' are college professors with no real world experience. The biggest factor in driving an economy up or down is expectations.
If corporations and consumers expect to earn more, they will spend more. And vice versa, if we expect to earn less, we will spend less. Much of this is driven by the by our leaders.
Trump came in with high expectations. Obama was telling us that we had to accept lower growth for years to come. The signing of China and USMCA agreements signal optimism and certainty. The economy will continue to grow and make mockery of the so-called experts.
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@JGaltTX Tariffs raise barriers and costs of trading. The only thing rising are transaction costs while efficiencies of free trade are decreasing due to Trump’s tariffs. The only realistic conclusion is that consumers will pay more to give surplus to businesses and special interests unable to compete in a world marketplace.
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@JGaltTX
Well, unfortunately, so far Obama has proven to be correct. Growth has still not risen above 3% for a single year since 2010. Regardless of who is in office, the economy just seems to keep plugging along a ~2.5% annual growth. Under Trump we've seen 2.2% in 2017, 2.8% in 2018, and the expectation is that 2019 will come in at just under 2.5% when Q4 data comes out.
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If prices go up and wages stay the same, people will spend less.
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Based on what I'm seeing in this piece, even the optimistic predictions of the trump administration don't get us back to where we were before the trade wars. The disagreement of the experts is certain to help maintain a level of uncertainty, and trump is bound to shake up the box again at some point in the future. Some markets are so damaged that they will have to be rebuilt practically from scratch. And what about all of the business that went belly-up as a result of the tariffs? A couple of stacked bricks don't undo the damage of the wrecking ball.
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This is the Trump method. Mess things up. Back track and claim victory when things go back to where they were before the mess up, or even if they become better than they were during the mess up.
10
It doesn't take a genius to figure out which way the US economy his heading. Wages are rising, unemployment is at a 50 year low and job growth is holding steady. All this is taking place prior to the China, Korea, Japan and U.S.M.C.A. trade agreements kicking in. The Democrats can't stand it.
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@Kurt Pickard
The House approved USMCA, which does not fit your narrative of Democrats wanting the economy to turn for their political gain.
As an economist I was against the $1 trillion deficit spending stimulus in a booming economy, as it goes against conventional Keynesian logic. But I changed my mind, partially because unemployment was not as low as most experts thought and more importantly because of wage inflation.
It seems, in the absence of collective bargaining, it took an extra economic boost to get the kind of wage gains going that have happened much sooner in places like Germany.
But that's not nearly a reason to vote Trump, with overriding issues like preserving our democracy, climate change, international policy, ... overwhelmingly urging a vote to get him out.
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@Kurt Pickard
What I can't stand are half truths. Yes wages are rising, but the largest driver has been increases in the minimum wage passed at the local and state levels. The great majority of those minimum wage increases being enacted in Democrat controlled geographies. Wage growth for middle income earners has not accelerated, and wage growth for high earners has actually slowed. While I'm all for reducing inequality, I'm not sure it makes sense to count this situation as a vindication of Trump's economic policies.
Similarly, while unemployment is currently at a 50 year low (3.7%), it was at a 10+ year low when Trump was sworn in (4.6%). Riding out the last couple years of a decade plus of falling unemployment also doesn't seem like a huge achievement. Also, the second part of you statement is not entirely true. Average monthly job growth is currently at 143K for 2019, which is lower than for every year of Obama's last six years in office.
While I agree that the economy is in good shape today, and that is obviously a good thing, the best you can say about Trump's contribution to that is that (surprisingly) his policies haven't yet been bad enough to totally derail the 2010 - present expansion. He should probably thank the Fed for lowering the Federal Funds rate 3 times in 2019. Not typically a step that is necessary in a good economy, but something had to be done to blunt the impact of the trade war I guess.
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@Kurt Pickard
Kurt, you're overlooking that the economy was improving a lot in the last 5 years of the previous administration.
The economy generally takes a long time to change direction, and whoever became President in 2017 would have had a couple good years or more on the coattails of the economic trend that already existed. (If you'd became Pres, if I'd became Pres, if Mickey Mouse became Pres; any of us would have looked good for a couple years regardless.)
What's being done now will affect the economy in 2-3 years a lot more than in the short run. Whether it actually takes a genius or not, it takes someone with a better understanding of economy to recognize the pattern, the cause and effect.
Suppose Trump promised that once he was President, he would make spring happen? If he boasted in April that it came because of him, would you believe it?
21
These are anti trade deals. They abandon the marketplace for a regulated view that raises the transaction costs to businesses of doing trade and finding efficient supply. The Trump objective isn’t to achieve low prices for consumers, but to protect businesses and special interests that can’t otherwise compete in a global marketplace. All that Trump has accomplished is making the US even less ready to do business and grow in this century.
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@PAUL NOLAN
To be fair, the majority of Americans (and Canadians) are being protected to various degrees from 3rd world problems.
People in poorer countries would gladly do most of our jobs for less money. I'm not singling you out, but economically speaking, most Westerners would lose their jobs, or have to settle for lower pay, if we were truly forced to compete in a global market.
1
Remember Trump's claim that his tax cut for corporations and the super wealthy would unleash economic growth of 4%-5%? Even with that sugar high growth in 2018 was 3.1%, dropped to 2% in 2019 and experts predict it will drop to 1.8% in 2020.
But Mnuchin claims growth will be 2.5% to 3% in 2020. That is obviously less of an economic statement than a political statement to improve Trump's chance of being re-elected by making Americans think the economy is improving.
Trump has lied repeatedly about negotiations with China. This time he was even more desperate to get a deal done. So, look for the evidence emerging that this deal is far from what Trump and Mnuchin are claiming.
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@B
Growth did not hit 3.1% in 2018, it was in fact 2.86%. There has not been a single year of GDP growth above 3% since 2010.
5
Watch him rally over the next few months in the Midwest, farmers cheering for "Djinah buying their big beautiful crops", as if international trade didn't exist before, and forgetting extreme rainfall might ruin their harvest again and again.
8
Trump expects praise when he stops doing something that was wrong in the first place. Rather than tariffs, the US should have joined with other countries to negotiate better trade behavior by China. Trump, though, does not value our alliances, and does not understand that international trade is not a zero-sum game.
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@James Ketcham "Rather than tariffs, the US should have joined with other countries to negotiate better trade behavior by China"
Which was exactly the reason for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) that was stupidly thrown out. It was designed specifically to isolate China from other Asian countries and vastly improve intellectual property laws. If that had been put in place the US would have had a very strong card to play against China. Instead, with it gone, China stepped in and brought all those countries into it's own agreement that shut out the US. Trump is dumber than a rock.
1
The thing is, there is little belief that whatever Trump says will happen will. Outside his base, there is a great deal of doubt about the Administration's policies -- not because they dispute the details, but because they don't trust that Trump hasn't made private agreements with the Chinese that will in effect offset the potential benefits.
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It seems likely that these deals could reverse some of the damage done by Trump’s disruptive “strategy,” if you can call it that. But how is this supposed to bring about additional growth beyond what we were seeing before he started his trade wars?
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This seems to be true for just about everything: Trump thinks , experts don't agree.
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@jaco Like the deal with North Korea that NK is ignoring?
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@jaco
Can you provide even a single example where this has been the case?
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@jaco In what way exactly? Oh, I forgot, this is always where the conversation stops.
5
Trump assures us that whatever he does is "Best deal ever", and experts disagree. Then when it turns out he's wrong and they're right, he blames the media for reporting it and flips to another issue to distract.
This is such a constantly repeating theme. Why does anyone even slightly believe anything this guy says?
30
Mr. Trump also predicted Mexico would pay for the wall. So far all the money has come from the US taxpayer (about 35% of whom were stupid enough to believe him).
19
Your comment indicates to me that you believe that all campaign promises must become true. I hope that you continue to hold that high standard for any Democrat candidate that is soon elected President.
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@William McCain Your position seems to be that campaign promises are just rhetoric, not to be taken seriously. Lots of people vote based on those promises, though, and this was no ordinary campaign promise. It was more like a solemn vow.
1
Do you mean we will just be back to where we started before trump's ridiculous and ill-thought- out tariffs? ALL of trump's problems are caused by him. He creates disasters then takes credit for fixing them when he puts things back together. The Iran deal he pulled out of is another example of his stupidity which could lead to a war. Get him out, he is truly disturbed!
15
I guess that time will tell. The experts of course, forecast a plunging economy if Trump were elected. The opposite happened. Those who were proven wrong said that the tax cuts that benefit over sixty five percent of taxpayers, small businesses, and also some corporations were the cause. Rich people were taxed more and they are complaining that they can’t deduct all of their state and local taxes. It shows that you cannot know the outcome with certainty until all of the intervening events occur.
7
@William McCain Rich people were taxed more? Which rich people are you talking about?
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@William McCain I don't think you have been reading...rich people were taxed less, and companies were as well, and they have not passed it on to their employees. Further, the economy is set to do less well thanks to the fiasco at Boeing, than the previous year.
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The sugar high from the inequitable tax cuts is fading, tariffs remain in place. Steven Mnuchin isn't any more truthful than his boss. So 1.8% sounds about right to me (if we get that much).
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@Saints Fan
Average GDP growth is about 2%. That is 1/3 lower than it was under stagflation and oil shocks in the. 1970s
That's not overdrive.
The trade deal isn't a trade deal at all. It is an agreement to stop escalating tit-for-tat tariffs. The tariffs already in place stay in place. How is that supposed to help the economy?
21
Well, let's at least be honest here. This is a vote-getter from Trump's perspective. Nothing more.
8
The experts are obviously Democrats. If we told them the sky is blue they would clearly disagree.
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@Confused
Maybe you should stop telling them the sky is blue on a rainy day.
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@Confused
And if Trump told you the sky was green you'd believe him.
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@Confused obviously, because all Democrats think one way and Republicans the other. The world is black and white. Nuance, debate and discussion are passe.
2
Of course it will bolster growth. To think otherwise is foolish and partisan pandering.
6
Trump is the dumbest business man on the face of this planet, he only makes money when he can hire an army of attorneys to make his case.
A steady economy depends on stable leadership and if there is one thing for sure it's that this country does have unstable leadership.
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I’ll raise a glass of wine to that. On second thought...
2
When I see the words "Trump," "predictions," "says," I see "lies," and go no further.
10
What a political stunt!
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All he needs is for it to take him thru November. A few more lies might do it!
7
So, the very stable genius is attempting to undo some of the damage HE has wrought, for his re-election Campaign. The mind reels, the stomach turns. The usual.
Had enough ??? VOTE THEM All OUT.
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Trump only caved because he knows that if the economy tanks, centrists will drop him like a brick in November. Without strong economy voters he can't get elected.
The deal is obviously flawed. We could have really used a big drop in prices of Chinese solar panels (tariff 30% China to US vs. 0% China to EU) but the GOP oil barons would of course not let us have that. And not surprisingly the Midwest farmers were catered to anticipating the election.
45
"Ease uncertainty" and "revive business investment in the United States" seem to be the most important needs of our economy. Why? One aspect of uncertainty is the haunting possibility that consumers might begin to face their severe addictions to credit. As the Christmas bills come in, how many families will have the talk: "Babe, we really have to cut back; the credit cards and the car loan are killing us." "OK, hon, we can do that. I'm with you." Even the slightest consumer contraction will increase unemployment and decrease variable work hours available enough to trigger defaults on sub-prime auto loans, loans that have been bundled into securities just like the sub-prime home loans in '08.
Revising business investment. Businesses borrowed and bought their own stock to look better to investors. With the slightest slowdown, they will do even worse -take the money and run instead of investing in the future.
The end of first Q 2020 is a critical time. The Fed has given up its leverage to get us this far and will be impotent.
10
For a president who has built his entire legacy around a "booming economy" which in many respects he had nothing to do with -- it's not surprising that Trump would hail his signing of a new trade agreement with China as a success. Especially after creating a choke hold on U.S. and world economies by starting it in the first place.
Leave it to this president to see himself as the hero of his own show.
Too bad several economists don't agree with him.
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@N. Smith
Before the "conservative" revolution average GDP growth was over 3%.
After forty years of Right-wing Economics (with the help of centrist Democrats who put compromise before good policy) average GDP growth is 2%, even after $5.5 trillion in tax cuts for the owners of capital.
Supply Side Economics and "unfeterred free trade" have reduced average growth by 1/3! They reduced productivity growth, wage growth, and capital utilization.
We had a better economy under stagflation and Jimmy Carter!
The Left has been correct the entire time.
Our government must invest in America.
1
For the economy to surge to 3%, tariffs must be eliminated now, not in November.We must open all avenues to trade with China .
A stabilized economy with China will assure peace, in the world.
12
I would like to see more articles on what our unusually high deficient is doing to our economy.
For years we have have had a substantial part of our electorate warning that we must reign in deficient spending and know everyone is just quiet on this subject.
What is going on?
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@A reader the Republicans always go on about the deficit when a democrat is in the White House. This holds back government spending and therefore the economy. They can then accuse that dem of poor growth. See 2010. When the Republicans are in power, deficits don’t seem to matter.
If a democrat wins in 2020, and I pray that one does, you’ll see the fanatical howling that we can’t afford to live this way. IfTrump wins, expect the debt to soar even higher PB
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@A reader
The federal government is being managed for short term sound bite gains. No one cares about long term planning.
I’m not surprised. This is the same way trump manages businesses, frequently resulting in bankruptcy. However a federal government has no bankruptcy backstop.
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@A reader
The government isn’t the economy. The economy isn’t in debt. Deficit spending tends to boost the economy, depending on how and where the borrowed money is spent. Spending on infrastructure (i.e. the interstate system) has both short-term gains in construction jobs and long-term gains in business use of that infrastructure.
The economic thing that should worry you about the debt isn’t what it’s doing to the economy now, which is actually positive, it’s that eventually the government has to either raise taxes to meet interest payments on that debt, or cut back on services, which will have a negative effect on the economy.
If you’re really worried about the subject, you should do something about the Republicans who keep increasing the deficit by cutting taxes while simultaneously increasing spending.
19