Wow NYT bends over backward for Pete while dissing Biden. Ridiculous
People forget that St. Louis is a southern city. It escaped significant scrutiny during the civil rights era of the 50s - 60s, and imo this is why it and the surrounding metro area remains one of the most racist and segregated in America. This explains much of the violence there. That Ferguson happened and happens to be a satellite of St Louis is no accident.
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Mark Twain had it right. There are three kinds of lies: (1) inconsequential ones; (2) serious ones; (3) statistics.
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What's interesting is the Central Americans seeking asylum in the US because of high crime in their home countries, but the situation in many American cities is no better than what they had at home...
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Thank you for doing this reporting. There should be a special section of the Times where misinformation, lies, distortions are addressed and saved for use during this campaign season. It would doing our nation a great service.
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No, the reality is actually NOT that nuanced in St. Louis.
Yes, St. Louis city and county are technically separate, adjacent communities. But no matter how you crunch the numbers, the city of St. Louis is a dangerous place. As are many parts of St. Louis county where former city residents have migrated.
When you have murders and carjackings nearly every day in a city of barely 300,000, it's simply not a safe place. And now we even have people being shot while just driving down the highway!
Please don't try to make excuses for this well-deserved stain on our community. It's truly awful that our crime rate is so high.
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The author fails to mention what demographic is responsible for
The overwhelming majority of these homicides
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This is a common problem with criminal statistics and other types of social indicator data like child abuse, teen pregnancy and births when for some reason categories or methods are changed from one year to the next. Another general problem is cherry picking statistics rather than doing careful analysis. Politicians especially Republicans and certain news outlets also often mislead especially about immigrant crime and crime in general by using arrest rates rather than conviction rates---a large percentage of people arrested are not convicted including those who agree to plea deals.
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I was born and raised in the St. Louis area. I went to college and lived in the city of St. Louis for about 12 years before I moved to CA. The city is definitely a dangerous place, and I witnessed more than my share of violent crime in the time that I lived there. And the fact that so much violent crime happens in such a small area makes it even scarier. But the root of this problem with the city boundaries goes back to 1876 when the city decided to split. Those problems, which have evolved well beyond the original squabble over taxes, still exist. Every year when the new crime rate stats are released, I hear all about it from family and friends that still live there. Until the powers that be in that city and county decide to redraw those boundaries, the problem will continue. But St. Louis has always had an issue with foresight, so I don't see the problem being corrected anytime soon. And that's very sad for such a beautiful city filled with so much history and so many wonderful things to see.
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@Bill So you want to re-draw the boundaries so the people in the safe areas are pushed together with the dangerous areas? I don't see why any sane person would agree to that.
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“In other words, the evidence is telling us that South Bend didn’t become more violent; it simply changed how it counted assaults. The South Bend Police Department points to guidance received in 2015 from the F.B.I. to count incidents involving a weapon being displayed or threatened as attempted aggravated assaults.” This also means South Bend had been a UNDER REPORTING violent crime prior to the corrected categorization.
City boundaries are of course arbitrary. But they are meaningful as it denotes political boundaries for which responsible parties, be it victims, perps, political forces, civic groups, demographics and economic forces can be cross compared. Not perfect but useful.
More useful would be data that’s more granular, perhaps by zip code or census tract. Clearly police, fire and social services do this as they deploy limited resources to where their presence will be most effective.
While categories of assault can be misapplied and inconsistent, murder is not. There’s a body. Unless the body is “disappeared”, which is rare, the evidence, including grieving families is unambiguous and accurately accounted for. The use of murder rates is a very accurate signal criminal behavior, with other crime types being useful but with the issues of reporting and categorization.
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Interesting tables. By city or metro area, where is Chicago that Trump is always talking up how bad the crime is?
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It's very easy to mislead ot outright lie with statistics. People need to know the story behind the statistic, the background, the context, and how the data were collected. I teach this in my Methods of Social Research class every semester.
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Discerning consumers of news/information should look for quotes and/or anecdotes (true journalism) to support an author's claims. Even formerly respectable outlets now churn out high-volume, zero-nuance pieces relying entirely on interpretations of select 'data.'
The amount of data out there is doubling every few years, and you can find some out there to support just about any agenda / idea.
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@Andy Deckman -- I'm not sure quite what you mean about looking for quotes and anecdotes instead of statistical data.
I read lots of articles full of anecdotes that tend to pull at emotion rather than reason. I've had to explain to people who tell me that of course Chicago (pop. 2.716 million) is "more dangerous" than some city less than a quarter its size because they read about the murders and because Chicago has more murders than the other, smaller city. And they accuse me of using trick statistics when I start mentioning rate of murders per 100,000 people in both cities.
When they still insist that it's just some kind of trick, I put it this way to show the need for statistical basis.
There are two "cities" that will have the same number of murders in a year - two murders a year in both cities.
City A has 100,000 people.
City B has 100 people.
In which city is the risk of being one of the two victims higher?
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@b fagan :"There are two "cities" that will have the same number of murders in a year - two murders a year in both cities.
City A has 100,000 people.
City B has 100 people.
In which city is the risk of being one of the two victims higher?"
I've seen spins on both the relative numbers and absolute numbers.
Take a look at the following:
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2019/01/02/homicides-2018/2461980002/
The Detroit Police Department proudly states that the number of criminal homicides in 2018 was 261 - the fewest since 1966, when there were 214. In 1966 there were about 1.5 million people living in Detroit. Detroit's current population is about 673,000.
BTW, using the averages for Metro areas as opposed to the city's rate is a tactic worthy of Krugman. Since all is well on his run through Riverside Park then all is right with the world.
See:
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/will-fear-strike-out/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body&_r=0
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On a qualitative basis, STL peaked in Metro Population approximately 120 years ago. Please do note the common element of 3 of the top 6 Metro areas on the "adjusted" basis - the Mississippi River. There is a lot of misleading data. For example, STL is always mentioned as a "cheap/affordable" Metro area on a cost of living basis. Well, whose basis? If you want to live poorly, STL is a great place to live. If you want to live well (and, especially, very well), then STL is actually (ironically?) a rather EXPENSIVE place to live. Supply and demand...
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@A Dude St. Louis city peaked in population in the 1960s. The metro population peaked in 2010.
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Nevertheless, the federally-defined Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) for Baltimore, St. Louis and Indianapolis all have high homicide rates. Gun homicides alone are 12.2 per 100,000 population in Baltimore, 11.4 in St. Louis and 7.7 in Indianapolis while the overall national rate is about 4.5 per 100,000. Baltimore's MSA has the fourth highest rate after New Orleans, Memphis and Birmingham. St. Louis is #5, and Indianapolis is #12.
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South Bend's MSA had a gun homicide rate around 7 per 100,000, for the years 2013-2018. Still higher than the national rate. Not a particularly good showing among MSAs either; somewhere around the 70th percentile.
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My confidence in crime data dissipated along with the U$D 500 that was stolen from my hotel room in St Louis; I called 911, but they did not come take a report.
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@Michael Storch My rental car was stolen in New Orleans several years ago. They told me to walk in the report. I suppose that was because I had no longer had a car.
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@Michael Storch
Did you and @Bob the Retina Guy think the police were going to do anything to find your stolen cash or stolen rental car? Like dust for fingerprints or investigate in any way as is done on television? The police don't do anything that is helpful. A police report is only useful when seeking reimbursement from insurance, if the loss is actually insured. The police don't need to come out for you to get the necessary report.
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You know what they say about statistics? Liars figure . . .
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@Ryan Bingham - Those suffering from statistical illiteracy are especially apt to use that quote.
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I have visited St. Louis a few times, and found that it was very difficult to determine where the city limits are. The urban landscape extends far beyond the "welcome to St. Louis" signs.
So how is it that violent people appear to be willing to stay within the city limits?
Clearly, statisticians must look for something else to explain why violent crime happens where it happens - poverty levels, unemployment, drug trafficking lanes of transport come to mind.
At the same time, it's wryly amusing to see how our political leaders are willing to take a clear statistical anomaly, beat it immercifully with a stick, and make it say what they want it to say, regardless of the lack of accuracy in their declaration. Hence the old adage that there are lies, darn lies, and statistics.
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@Steve Feldmann: Because the vast majority of violent crime in St. Louis is between people who know each other. Strangers might get mugged or have their cars broken into, but even if that happens, they probably won't be hurt in the process.
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@Al I will take your word for it. For the record, our visits were very enjoyable.
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@Steve Feldmann Steve is correct. The boundaries between STL and the suburbs run in ridiculous places, like in the middle of the Washington University campus, and neighborhoods that are indistinguishable from the next are carved off into separate municipalities. There has been a local move to rationalize the city-county structure, which would be a good idea.
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What did Pete Buttoning do to REDUCE crime in South BEND? He's acknowledged that he didn't even know that the school's were segregated--an astonishing blind spot for someone who grew up there and was mayor.
His main focus was trying to attract middle class people to move there. He did nothing to improve the lives of those already there--whether in schools, housing, policing, or recreation.
It's astonishing that someone with NO record of actually improving people's lives is taken so seriously, especially in light of so many other candidates who've devoted their lives to this and CAN point to real accomplishments.
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@Kraig
South Bend schools ARE integrated. Buttigieg said that he didn’t know early on that the schools outside of South Bend, in the rest of St. Joseph’s County, aren’t properly integrated.
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@Kraig Another half-understanding of the facts. Buttigieg of course knows that the South Bend schools are integrated. What he was referring to is the surrounding county school districts, which by the way are largely products of white flight in the 1970s-90s and are, of course as white as you might think given that. They are not segregated by law, of course, but de facto they are
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@Kraig Did you read the article? Also, you clearly know nothing about his record as a two-term mayor, but your uninformed dismissal of him is noted.
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Speaking of nuance, what's a branding statement like "G.O.P." doing in a news article? At best this is what Fowler called elegant variation, and on that basis alone it should be eschewed.
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And the saying goes, figures don't lie but liars figure.
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I lived in StL for ten years and just moved this past summer elsewhere. St. Louis has pockets of entrenched poverty and violence, and one must remember that the city peaked at some 856,000 people in 1950’s census, very dense for a pretty small footprint. There are many areas rebounding, and I would not be surprised to see an increase in the future. I never had a single issue in my neighborhood of Lafayette Square, and the city has wonderful cultural, culinary, and architectural amenities.
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@Daniel Fry Lafayette is absolutely beautiful. Live here currently and, like you said, it's exciting to see the city rebounding. Here's to hoping it keeps doing so.
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What is it that makes these cities so violent? Shouldn't this be a central question in the presidential debates?
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@Kai Memphis, New Orleans, and Baton Rouge have relatively low-income populations and relatively struggling economies.
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@Kai Poverty, poor education, joblessness, hopelessness, abandonment, disenfranchisement, and ingrained racism are the leading indicators of violence here in St Louis. If you were to delve further in to crime statistics, you would find that the murder rate is practically zero for those living above poverty in our region, particularly among white people.
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Yes, true, but those are results, not causes, in my opinion. I think St. Louis’ autonomous identity as its own governmental authority along with too many insiders greasing the skids is a big part of the problem.
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"The evidence is telling us that South Bend didn’t become more violent; it simply changed how it counted assaults."
This is what Pete Buttigieg has been saying all along. Thank you, New York Times, for confirming it with your investigative journalism. We need more balanced reporting about Mayor Pete.
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@CTAllie
We do need more balanced reporting on Mayor Pete. That would of course include critical pieces on his tendency (along with so many candidates) to pander to the African Americans-as victims-of-(traditional)-racism perspective. Our country is not stuck in a mindset akin to the Deep South in the fifties (or maybe it is the 1850s?).
Cultural really is a big factor in differential group outcomes. It would be nice to see some politicians step up to the Honesty Plate on this. Collateral damage associated with the endless (and often mindless) racism activism is not acceptable or helpful.
When will NYT include columns by African American critics like Prof. Walter Williams looking at the distortions associated with charges of racism? The last blip along those lines was "Why are Democrats Defending Al Sharpton?".
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