Beijing Was Confident Its Hong Kong Allies Would Win. After the Election, It Went Silent.

The protesters are not anti government, they are anti totalitarian regime, anti communist, anti Pooh bear the blessed leader for life on the mainland. #freehongkong

A lesson for every government: Proactive ignorance deserves major setbacks, at best.

The rift between Hong Kong and the communist regime is far more than political. It is also linguistic and cultural. More than 70% of China speaks Mandarin. The lingua franca of Hong Kong, Yue (Cantonese), is spoken by less than 5% of the Chinese population. Some linguists argue Yue/Cantonese isn't a dialect at all but an entirely separate language. Beijing propagates the myth it is a dialect of Chinese to perpetuate the falsehood there always was and has ever been just one China. Add to the political and linguistic divide the fact that Hong Kong has, for 200 years been an outpost for Western civilization, trade, economics and cultural chauvinism. Framing the strain between Beijing and Hong Kong only in terms of Democracy v. Communism is only half the problem and half the story.

This has been the problem ever since the 1997 handover. Beijing has never come to understand the fundamental realities of Hong Kong, its local history, culture, and core values. It is deeply connected to the social and political trends that make up the modern world. In sharp contrast, China seems to keep sliding back into its classical dynastic cycle with all of its historically well-known problems. For Hong Kong it picks leaders who are either incapable of or actively refuse to communicate the reality of Hong Kong to the leadership of the PRC. This on-going practice of active ignorance appears to have accelerated in recent years with nothing learned from the 2012 protest against National and Moral Education, the 2013 Umbrella Movement, the 2016 Mong Kok riot, and of course everything that has happened for the last six months in Hong Kong while the whole world watches on in wonder. The truly telling comment comes from Wu Qiang. “They believed in their own propaganda, … They thought the situation would pivot and the public would support them.” Deaf, dumb, and blind is not way to go about solving problems in the world. Will power ever get around to listening to the truth?

Every time I have visited China, I came away simultaneously convinced that they will dominate the world and that they will disintegrate under the weight of ethnic and economic divides. Nothing about the Hong Kong situation changes that.

China indeed is a big loser! What heppened to China's Hong Kong and Macau Office? No more intelligence services? Where are those Chinese apies in Hong Kong? Gambling in the casinos? Xi Jinping is the biggest loser. He should step down and say sorry to all Chinese people. It is time for Hong Kong to declare independence. Long Live Hong Kongers!

It might help to quit using terms like "Beijing" or "China" in discussing the dynamics. The Communist Party of China runs the PRC. The Commuist Party itself adheres to a totalitarian political philosophy which is in turn influenced by Han 'racism/ethnicism/ whateveh' bigotry. Totalitarians view elections as something to be manipulated if they are allowed at all. We are viewing Xi Jingping "thought" in action. And his political theory is informed by Carl Schmitt, Adolph's favorite theoretician, after himself of course. So quit calling it Beijing or China or the capital. Call "it" a totalitarian Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist political party with a history of violent repression/oppression of any opponents.

Let’s see. You lose an election you were supposed to win. It can’t be your fault so you blame a foreign government. Where have I heard this before?

Stand with Hong Kong.

If US is so unsatisfied to China government, China can simply rescind the Three Communiqués. US has no issue on that.

I do not know whether Trotsky said it but he should have done: "The first victim of insurrection is the truth". I find little credibility in most of this article. The losing party were the doom mongers. Throughout the disturbances, despite the persistent conflating by Western media of China with Hong Kong, and repeated (ad nauseam) expectations of PLA tanks coming across the border, China took a hands-off approach. Early on the HK & Macau Affairs Office said the HK Police will handle it. Some days ago Xi Jinping said exactly the same thing, In Western parlance - "your problem. you fix it". It's called a "high degree of autonomy", doncha know.

The US HAS supported the unrest in Hong Kong, though. Mike Pompeo said that the US stands with the protesters. Ted Cruz visited hongkong and lied about the fact that he had no evidence of protest of violence. Does that not count as support?

The Chinese Communist Party is evil and should be overthrown. Period. Their leaders should be put on trial and face whatever consequences their people see fit for them. I think Romania in 1989 is a good example.

Xi's cult of Xi is the problem and his heavy and ham-handedness of enforcing the Cult of Xi. He could instead have built a solid structure of leadership, trained int eh next generation, and stepped aside at the end of his term to watch the crop he planted to flourish. Instead, he is trying to fashion himself as the next Mao. How well did that work out the first time?

I want my America to support democracy and freedom everywhere. Here and in China and in Hong Kong and everywhere else. I want everybody to know that my America will always support democracy and freedom. I want my America to fight for democracy and freedom no matter what it costs, because those principles and values are priceless. I want my America to never fail tp oppose demagogues, fascists, white supremacists, dictators, kleptocrats, autocrats--here and abroad. I want these things to be the worse-kept secrets on the planet.

I doubt the self-acclaimed dictator for life, President Xi, has any idea why the election failed to support his authoritarian approach to handling Hong Kong. China is used to throwing its weight around. After all, he has suppressed the aspirations of over billion people in China so Hong Kong should be easy. Xi's Maoist fixation with thought control has kept mainland China on the rigid path of authoritarian intolerance of intellectual diversity, the basis of democratic societies. What is present in Hong Kong - the catalyst of freedom of expression - is missing in mainland Chinese life. Economic growth, alone, will not in itself further the development of Chinese society and culture. The people of Hong Kong know this, and having it, have no intention of letting it go. In mainland China, the Chinese Communist Party has identified what it refers to as the "seven grave threats." These threats are seven topics they fear the most that cannot be spoken of openly in academic settings or in public meetings. They are: constitutional ​democracy, human rights, an independent judicial system, the rule of law, freedom of the press, civic society, and any mention or discussion of the of the historical errors and crimes perpetrated by the CCP against the Chinese people. Based on his failure to understand what democratic reform means, President Xi has succeeded in awakening Hong Kong.

All this celebration is a bit premature. The government in Beijing just needs to run out the clock as the Special Administrative Region status ends in 2047. HK’s future after that will be determined by it’s capitulation on three things: 1) HK is an inextricable part of China; 2) Hongkongers are citizens of PRC before they’re Hongkongers; and 3) Whatever autonomous rule HK enjoys after 2047 comes at the good graces of Beijing. In the end, HK will not become a city-state like Singapore nor will it become the 51st state of the United States. Put away the American flag and focus on brokering a long-term, practical solution for co-existence. Thankfully, Xi Jinping will not likely be around in 2047 and so there’s are possibilities for rebooting this relationship. Who knows, within this century, a president of PRC may be a Hongkonger who protested in the 2019. Stranger things have happened in Taiwan and South Korea.

I truly hope it won't have to get this bad here in the US before our own deluded nationalist autocrats are deposed.

It's stunning how incompetent Xi and the CCP are - in HK, trade negotiations, Xinjiang, etc. With HK, China had another 18 years to slowly, imperceptibly bring the water to a boil. Instead - Xi plunked the HK frog directly into extradition law. No surprise - HK jumped, and is now hugely conscious of the situation.

It's not all about you, we're getting blamed too. And the Chinese government is especially mad about the paperwork that has come to light relating to the imprisonment of the Uighurs. Hopefully the British National (Overseas) passport holders of HK will be given the right to settle here.

The next Nobel Peace price has to go to the people of Hong Kong. No one else comes close.

"The sudden pivot reflects the ruling Communist Party’s continuing struggle to understand one of its worst political crises in decades." Oh, I think it's clear that they understand this political crisis completely. What they are struggling to do is to find a way to brutally crush that dissent while not appearing to outsiders that they are brutally crushing dissent.

I am stunned by the first sentence in the article. I assumed the Chinese government at least understood the Hong Kong opposition and just could not figure out a way to stop it without a destructive massive intervention. I have always believed that a sure sign an authoritarian organization of any kind is in real trouble if it believes its own propaganda. At best it leads to the kind of fumbling the Chinese government controlled media made during the run up to the election. At worst for them it causes authoritarian leaders to be blindsided by a complete collapse of their regime. In the case of the Chinese government it is likely that the success of their contract with the Chinese people of economic prosperity in exchange for giving up political rights has been so successful that they could not imagine it failing in Hong Kong. It may also explain why the Chinese government is so afraid that an economic downturn could severely undermine their authority. Going forward there is still no path to victory for the Hong Kong demonstrators. My advice to them would be to build on the surprise of their massive victory has dis oriented the government. I would do nothing for a short while and then periodically organize another peaceful massive demonstration with millions of people. The goal would be to constantly thew the government off balance by surprise actions while making the disruptions small enough to make the price of massive intervention unproportionately destructive.

The Chinese government spews government propaganda through their state news sources. The Republican Party spews their propaganda through the White House, the House and Senate, Fox News, Breitbart and a slew of Internet sites. Little if any “ news” is based on fact. When is the MSM, reliably sourced, going to begin to call it for what it is?“ Disinformation “ is a word people ignore. Fact checkers are wrongly accused of being partisan. However “ propaganda” backed up with credible evidence should get most people’s attention. That is a word with a very ugly connotation that most of us understand. How similar we are becoming to the Chinese...the people that most of the GOP, with the exception of DJT, think of as the devil.

"The sudden pivot reflects the ruling Communist Party’s continuing struggle to understand one of its worst political crises in decades. At various moments in the monthslong protests in Hong Kong, Beijing has been caught off guard, forced to recalibrate its propaganda machine." It's very simple: No repression, no problem!! There is no reasonable way to rationalize repressing other humans. But I will happily watch them continue to try in silence until they realize its a crisis of their own making. #freehongkong #freedomisneverfree #allpeopleshouldbefree

Chinese leadership have taken a page from Trump's play book. When you lose, blame someone else.

What else is new? China needs a scapegoat by blaming the U.S. in order to keep up its crackdown on human rights. No doubt they're also miffed by a seemingly endless tariff war started by this president as it starts to take a toll on their economy. Nevertheless, it's amazing they've shown as much restraint as they have. Perhaps only because they know the world is watching.

Is China accusing the Trump administration of being pro-democracy? That's hilarious!

Yes--the appearance of a successful democracy anywhere on the planet angers China's military junta, as well as all the other despots and wannabe dictators and fascist regimes. Our democracy--still the world's most powerful country--is anathema to the corrupt who cling to ancient strong-man ideologies rather than accommodate their peoples' desires of freedom and human rights. All the USA has to do is merely exist and Beijing will remain suspicious of, and thus despise us, forever.

Despite holding a lot of authority in its hands, the Chinese govt lacks the confidence to implement wise decisions, preferring simple-minded force. Their effort to dominate the world economy by its Belt and Road Initiative will suffer when prospective countries understand an inflexible iron hand is being extended, not a helping hand.

Xi has only himself to blame.

Are we starting a new tradition? If your side lost, blame foreign interference in the election.

Wow, about the Chinese government you say, "They believed in their own propaganda." Do you really think that's the case. Do think the same could be the case with Trump & Co. regarding the climate crisis? I don't. I think the oligarchs and their lackeys in power in the US know exactly what they're doing -- to the environment, to poor people, to the rule of law. In my book that makes them more than cynical, it makes them evil. Why not the same with Xi & Co.? They don't believe their own propaganda, in fact they know perfectly well what's going on in Hong Kong. They just won't budge because it might lead to what they really fear: the loss of their stranglehold over the Chinese people.

As long as the one country two systems model is in place Beijing is happy. The vast bulk of demonstrators and the overall population have, apparently, clearly indicated that independence is not what they are seeking just increasing democratization as set out in the Basic Law. The Chinese architects of this system saw it as an ideal approach to encourage Taiwan to come back into the fold with its own systems intact. Beijing does not "fear" democracy. Beijing fears separatist and independence movements. As clearly laid out in the two systems approach HK can move towards universal suffrage under the system. Beijing offered a deal for that in 2007 that required candidates for the leadership of HK to be vetted by Beijing to ensure they would not advocate independence. (As many countries in federal systems do.) This opportunity was foolishly passed on over disputes about how this would be done. The whole idea of two systems was for the two forms of gov to learn from each other. If the HK democracy model is handled properly and peacefully it could spread as the Shenzhen experiment in capitalism and opening up did across China. However, the US as a strategic competitor has no desire to see anything happen smoothly in China. Given America's very long history of destructive meddling in other countries with zero concern regarding the human suffering unleashed China is absolutely right to watch their backs. Anyone who thinks otherwise is both delusional and historically illiterate.

This could spell the beginning of the end for China, politically. And depending on how painful this transition is, it could spell the end of China economically. After the insignificant vote in Hong Kong, people around the world now know that the ideology of democracy has settled in permanently in Hong Kong. There is no getting around it. It’s lodged in. And it’s only a matter of time before this democratic ideology spreads to the Mainland. The very thing China does not want. So what’s ahead? More violence? Of course. But China needs to realize that the cat is out of the bag. There’s no putting it back. Before long, isolated camps of Communist resistance will pop up everywhere only to be replaced with Democratic ideals. In fact, we see this all around the world in Chile, Iraq, Lebanon, and even Russia. Democracy is on the march. So while Democracy is eroding in America because of intransigent Republicans who cling to a false narrative, we see Democracy resoundingly gaining a foothold in places we never dreamed of. How amazing is life. How amazing is evolution.

I read it was a record voter turnout. Yet, at 70%, it seemed low. Were one out of four fearful of simply voting? Will Xi, with facial recognition available, know who to blame for this big defeat?

China as a economic powerhouse, and not just in Asia, should realize that Hong Kong can play a crucial part of it export economy. The chinese people have always been entrepreneurs and they are very good at making money. That is in their genes. I look at Hong Kong as a filter through which not just goods and services flow through, but also a filter for things comming in and goping out. It is a buffer zone which moderates and modifys thought, political and personal, and goods. It is like a control valve to me. I look at taiwan in the same light. A buffer to protect Chinese political, social and industrial activity. I think it allows a much more controlled access to the mainland. But there are limits to which they mainland Chinese will put up with. People need to respect these limits.

Like the Russian Republicans and Commander Bone Spurs, the dictators in China actually believe their nonsense propaganda. Funny, that.

A government afraid of its own people.

HK will become Puerto Rico, a territory without the help from Trump. Beijing government for sure will not help pay for the damage reconstructions. The immense recovery costs from all the destructive actions by the mobsters and rioters will crush down on HK people. Who is going to pay? Certainly not HK government. The guilty participants and private business engaged in the riots will have to pickup the bills. Now I don't see a bright future for HK especially those naïve newly elected democratic advocates. They think of their electricity, water, meat and vegetable are fallen from sky. They don't know it is provided and subsidized from mainland China. They think their election will help reducing the high cost housing problems. And they have no idea the four big families control the real estate empire in a capitalistic society are untouchable. They think they can improve the inequality instantly. And they are dreaming. China will let HK government to take care of its own problems. They will maintain "One Country Two system" agenda until 2047. I don't foresee HK can recover unless they ask for help from Beijing.

This reminds me of the way the Republicans are blaming Ukraine instead of Russia for election interference. If you can’t handle the truth, create your own.

Ok Xi, We will take credit. What are going to do about it?

Hmmm ... What does this remind me of? "By directing their anger at the United States, Chinese officials are reviving a theme that will likely be popular with the masses and allow the government to avoid taking responsibility for the defeat, analysts said. “Beijing knows very well that they lost the game in the election,” said Willy Lam, a political analyst who teaches at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “Beijing had to blame somebody, so in this case it is blaming outside foreign forces, particularly in the United States, for interfering in the elections.”"

We have meddled in foreign elections no less 80 times (in 40 nations) since the end of the Second World War...so there's ample history and justification for the Chinese warning to our ambassador in Beijing. As for The New York Times' use of the word "stunning" to describe the electoral victory, it's worth reminding ourselves the elections are for positions responsible for collecting trash, fixing defective traffic lights, etc. Let's use the word 'stunning" when and where it's appropriate, rather than using it for developments that do not warrant it.

“The United States believes that societies are best served when diverse political views can be represented in genuinely free and fair elections,” according to the embassy. Sadly this statement sounds ironic coming from the U.S. Government right now!

Maybe we could learn something from the Hong Kong situation. I hate to say this, but the only way democracy may be restored to the United States is by the young people fighting for it, like we did in the Revolution. We now have a country that is run by a few old white men (trump, McConnell, Graham, the Supreme Court). We no longer (if we ever had) one person, one vote. The Republicans have seen to it. Gerrymandering, voter restriction, Citizens United, The ELECTORAL COLLEGE all affect our "democracy". What kind of logic is it when McConnell says he will not bring Obama's selection for the supreme court because it is an election year, yet he will bring trumps supreme court nominee up for a vote in an election year if a vacancy occurs. Hong Kong is fighting for its independence as it was guaranteed during their separation from Britain. The United States Congress voted to support them. Why then will the United States congress not vote to support the constitution of the United States?