I will be sending Elizabeth Warren money for her campaign. America needs her to be the Democratic candidate come Nov. 2020. With her articulated plans she should win 1 or 2 states while President Trump sweep all the others. Republicans should win the House back as well.
1
The one group that has consistently been noticeably the most pro-Trump is white men, both college and non-college educated.
And they are often (not always) very angry! You can blame social media for creating thought bubbles, or climate change, immigrants or robots, or anything you want, but along with so much else, people are getting angrier.
Hate, like anger, is an addiction - it feels good to rant and rave and hate.
I see people raging with"hate" on meaningless articles in the local news... about a street being renamed from "Sunny" to "Sunshine". Like that.
So... I say, pick an angry white man as the candidate. You will entice many, many new voters and enthuse many more who will switch teams. People want a fighter.
51
@Patsy Nope - been there, done that. No more "Cadet "Sharpie"Bone Spurs types. Not a good or pleasant experience. Chaotic, disruptive, unbalanced. That's the last thing we need.
22
@Patsy
Well then, Bernie Sanders fits the bill.
8
@Patsy "Couldn't Bring Myself to Vote for Email Lady so Pulled the Lever for Trump" is a longish bumper sticker, don't you think? And it says more about the driver than the Democratic Party.
12
As a Trump supporter, this is the best news I have heard in days!
52
@William, if I were a Trump supporter, I'd be hard up for good news these days, too.
137
@William
As a trump supporter, I wonder what it is that you care about that you think Trump also cares about?
Trump threw the Kurds under the bus over real estate deals in Istanbul. Do you really think your interests and his line up enough for him to look after yours?
Tell you what, you and I can talk more about this when we see each other in the concentration camps that dictator for life Trumps shoves us into for no particular reason other than Trump owns the camp and he can bill the federal gov’t $300 a night for our being there.
Kindest regards,
Take care and I’ll See ya then.
50
@William
I agree
With Trump as your President, you do need all the good news you can fabricate...
31
What a shame that in the U.S.A. we don't have a one-person, one-vote system whereby the person who wins the most votes for president nationally actually wins the election. In other words, what a shame that we don't have real democracy in this country. Any one of these candidates could easily beat Trump because a majority of Americans - a majority of voting Americans - want Trump out of office. Unfortunately, under our system of government, we don't get to have majority rule. That is why Democrats and Democratic pollsters, pundits and advisors are so wracked with anxiety about 2020 and the primaries. In order to win, any Democratic nominee needs to overcome massive systemic Republican advantages. That is why we need to fundamentally change our system of government and replace it with an actual democracy. Four simple things would accomplish this: eliminating the electoral college and electing the president by national popular vote (I'm counting that as one thing), making all political campaigns exclusively publicly financed; making the senate proportionally representative by population, and banning gerrymandering. It may take a century or more to get these things done through the process of constitutional amendments but the time to start is now. We owe it to our descendants at least to begin the process of trying to create a democratic system of government in the United States of America.
5
Biden has been attacked relentlessly for the last month or so by the president of the U.S.A. Tell me how that has not hurt him with some of the voters and not affected his standing in the polls.
Yet, I have only seen it mentioned in one opinion piece as a contributing factor. It seems to be the elephant in the room that no one is talking about.
3
This Poll shows that Iowans are learning what Bay Stater's already know. Elizabeth Warren is a MODERATE PROGRESSIVE. She has progressive ideas but understands that they must be moderated to work in Real World America. Also she will not let Trump steamroll her (like he did to Hillary Clinton) during The Debates. I think that Pete Buttigieg's showing in CONSERVATIVE IOWA is surprising. Twelve years ago I wondered whether or not America as a whole was ready for a Black President. The hatred spewed against President Obama (which helped elect Donald Trump) shows that they were not. Is America as a whole ready for a Gay President?
2
“To the expansive populism of Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders,”
What is the word Populism doing here? It is typically used in a pejorative sense and I suspect that is the intent here. For some decades the American Presidential Elections have been a contest between Tweedledum and Tweedledee; entitled self-styled ‘elites’ who had enormous control over media and message, (and yes, this includes President Obama). This entitled class, which I prefer to call the Nomenclature, traded favours and looked after one another – taking turns to share the steering of a vehicle going only in one direction.
The neo-liberal ideology – which lives off the working class and transfers obscene amounts of wealth to the entitled class is the straw that has broken the camel’s back. The unthinkable happened; the Republican Party was unable to manage its nomination process and an unschooled outsider broke through. Worse still this unschooled outsider believes he has some control over serious business, but he has reckoned wrongly. Thinks must be done in a certain way – so that the Media do not have to ask serious questions and practice real journalism.
Now the Democratic Party is losing control of its nomination process; and it is fighting back to try and ensure that Corporate Greed continues to drive the nomination process.
Populism means responsive to the people. The essence of Democracy and I hope, in that sense, Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders may merit being described as Populists.
2
Biden's campaign suffers from a permanent defect - Biden's first objective is not to be president. Instead, it's to unseat Trump. Biden expressly said so much when he entered the race. Biden's negative motivation in this regard will taint his campaign efforts and ultimately, rightfully, keep him from winning the presidency.
1
I'm not sure why your analysis includes no mention of the campaign of Tulsi Gabbard, since it is not limited to the top three or four candidates. Could it be that she has been scurrilously attacked by both Hillary Clinton and your campaign corespondent, Lisa Lerer? She is virtually the only candidate discussing foreign policy and the heavy hand of the war lobby, so reaction to her campaign, whether strong or weak, is significant.
7
Yang is honestly the best choice. His policies have substance. He looks at the data while Warren has yet to acknowledge automation. Bernie is cool but his FJG is pushing for automation even more. UBI is something that will be needed once machines start taking jobs. Andrew Yang is the only one bringing up the problems no one else knew about while also having great solutions for them. None of these politicians started talking about automation until he brought it up. Obama basically endorses Yang!
2
Too bad a simple poll can't give us the answer to the more than $25 billion dollar national debt that will be awaiting the next President in January 2021. What a waste the last twenty years have been...
2
It’s hard to understand why Iowa is important. Remember John Edwards?
2
Pete Buttigieg being a young war veteran has what none of the others have, First hand experience being in war.
Add in Rhodes Scholar, Harvard grad, mayor of a middle American city dealing with budgets and real problems every day Americans have, and married to a great man who is a teacher. And isn't afraid to speak of the role his personal Christian faith plays in his belief that ALL citizens matter.
He speaks in a civilized strong manner and isn't afraid to call you out if you are wrong. He lives up to Michelle Obama's adage, when they go low we go high!
These are why we support him!!
8
We all need to crush the Republican Party in the impeachment trial. The Senate won’t throw Trump out but the voters will. We need to turn out the voters. Are we going to continue to allow corporate welfare continue to own us by way of a cheating Republican Party?? WAKE UP AMERICA. Boeing has received $76,000,000,000 in government hand outs since 2000. That is just one in our corporate socialistic system. And, look at the handouts people like Trump get. Come on people stand up to the Republicans underneath their bully pedestal they are all cowards.
2
$25 trillion, of course. Sorry for the typo!
Edmund Muskie, a moderate, was leading in the polls in 1972 over George McGovern, the left-leaning candidate, before the Nixon campaign smeared him with false rumors, etc.
McGovern went on to win the nomination to represent the Democrats which lead to a huge win by Nixon.
"This election was between United States President Richard Nixon and Senator of South Dakota George McGovern. Richard Nixon won the election by a landslide (winning 49 of 50 states). George McGovern got 17 electoral votes. John Hospers got one electoral vote by a Virginia faithless elector.
This was the highest of any Republican nominee as a vote, as well as a highest electoral vote in a United States election until Ronald Reagan was re-elected in 1984 by a huge landslide."
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_presidential_election
Oops. Looks like Trump will not need that Biden dirt after all.
Go Pete!
Polling margin of error should have been reported.... At face value, the top four are all polling equally.
9
Warren sounds more like a preacher promising salvation than someone who can actually accomplish something needed.
What is Warren's foreign policy that allows for cutting $800 billion from military spending and promotes our economic growth, allowing her wealth and business taxes to produce another trillion or ten? So far she hasn't said jack about the rest of the world, including foreign competition, trade policy, and threats.
Given the huge shortage of doctors and other medical personnel, especially in poorer and rural parts of our country, insurance is of minimal use if there is no person/facility available. How will she increase the supply of qualified doctors, which the increased demand produced by universal coverage will necessitate?
How would costs be controlled and decisions made as to what is actually covered?
What of the union and middle-class folks whose investments, 401k, and pension plans are currently invested in the health care industry?
A moral, aspirational policy is all to the good, but it should never be confused with political, social, and economic realities, both domestic and international.
It's not just the attitude of the 1% wanting to be part of the 0.1% that is the problem. How many people vote against the cost of filling potholes, when the cost of repairing their front ends from driving over those potholes is much greater? Unless you consider real people's attitudes in the real world, plans such as Warren's are largely smoke and mirrors.
11
@Steve Fankuchen
$800 billion over 10 years is $80 billion a year and the 2019-2020 Defenselessness Department spending was $754 billion....so that’s about a 12% cut from Defenselessness.
@Steve Fankuchen : And how is Trump’s much better and cheaper health plan for every American coming along? What are Republicans going to do about America’s ridiculously expensive and ineffective (compared to other Western countries) health care? Under Republican rule, unions will be sabotaged and with them their negotiated benefits, and stocks are always risky investments. The pharmaceutical industry will continue just fine under Warren’s plan and health insurance providers should be non-profit anyway. As far as health care goes, I never understood Americans’ willingness to pay more for less than the people in other countries with universal and well-regulated health care, or run the risk of going bankrupt in case of a serious condition or accident if they have no (sufficient) insurance.
2
Warren has plans. She’s not afraid of facts and knows how to use them.
7
I absolutely hate polls because they are meaningless, but I love elections - just give me a chance to vote.
3
Pete can handle the job as President with integrity, honor and diplomacy and heal our nation and restore our democracy..
He’s young - who cares
He’s gay - who cares
He’s kind - we care
He’s brilliant - we care
He has served his country - we care
He’s a proven leader - we care
He’s the “best fit” for the job..
• Vote for Pete because YOU care •
12
@JB Mayor of a small city with racial problems is hardly a proven leader.
3
@JB: Hey JB, Mayor Pete is America’s Mayor to me, not that miserable consigliere to Trump, Giuliani. I’d love to be able to vote for Peter Buttigieg when the time comes, as I would for any other Democratic candidate! I’d also like to see him as VP or SoS under any of the other candidates.
1
He’s shifting his positions as I write...from progressive to centrist. I care.
1
In 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa in the Republican primary. This proves that Iowa is not necessarily a good judge as to who will get the party nomination.
9
These polls were taken before Warren’s health care monstrosity was revealed.
6
One startling result of this poll is the strong support for increasing Social Security benefits, something that Sanders has proposed for years and for which Warren issued a plan for before the last debate They will pay for this by reinitiating the payroll tax for those making 250000 and above. and in the process stabilize the SS Trust Fund. But this has received barely a whisper of attention in the press and never brought up in the debates although it is significant and monumental change. The question is why. Also if this issue is elevated as it should be by the press, how much will the minimal support currently received by voters over 55 increase for both Sanders and Warren
9
Biden beats Trump in PA, WI and MI.
Does Warren?
8
Why should I care what some pig and corn farmers discuss at one of their caucuses? When we have a real primary of several important states, I will pay attention.
7
The poll shows most voters favor more progressive policies, but they assume many other voters oppose them, so they cautiously say they want to nominate a more centrist candidate. Who is running our political norms?
Meanwhile per article --most voters want liberal goals---breaking up big banks, increasing Social Security, single-payer health care. But out of political caution, the poll found that more Democrats prefer a nominee who will support "improving the private health insurance system rather than replacing it altogether." How many uninsured? 27 million?
And most Dems say favor working with Repub? Really? After the blockage by Repubs of anything worthy of a modern democracy, I'd think few Dems really want to work with them. Instead they yearn for change and progress. But they assume the rest of the country doesn't. So, to beat Trump, we'll get a cautious nominee?
Most voters want strong gun laws. What chance that will pass? So will Dem candidates be hold back and be careful? So our norms stay warped? What time is the next mass shooting?
So let's ask--- who is really determining our politics in America?
The question is, what do Americans really want? Do they think they stand any chance of getting what other capitalist democracies offer their citizens? Guess not.
So much for the 'great American Experiment' in democracy.
13
I wish Joe Biden had been the Dems' nominee in 2016 but I don't want him to be the nominee in 2020. I'm a senior. We need someone (hopefully younger) who's at the top of their game and that's not Joe. That said Joe Biden has been invaluable in the fight to defeat Trump and I will be forever grateful. If Trump hadn't tried to torpedo Biden's chances via the Ukraine quid pro quo we probably wouldn't be in impeachment mode right now.
Thanks Joe! Now give it up.
13
@JammieGirl... Because of the reasons you cited I believe Biden has even more of a right to be in this race.
2
I'm really frustrated at this idea of people discarding Sanders as merely another straight white male.
The very reason why AOC, Tlaib, two women from ethnic minority backgrounds have endorsed him is because his policies are for the working and middle classes.
14
@J
Sadly Bernie cannot win the General Election. He would win the popular vote just like Hillary did and lose the swing states just like Hillary did. Maybe even more of them.
1
The poll has a margin of error of 4.7%. It is misleading to say that there is any one leader among the top four with this margin or error. From a statistical standpoint, they are all essentially tied.
11
Universal HC? Contrast is a good eye opener.
See NYT video/article/comments-- “How Europeans See America”.
Quote:
“We asked young, ordinary Europeans to take a look at U.S. policies on everything from food to guns. As they discover facts about America, they’re not impressed.”
Europeans are shocked to learn that the American government does not guarantee social protections that citizens in other advanced economies take for granted.
Their reactions reflect how European governments prioritize citizen welfare, offering national assurances like universal health care and affordable education.
Americans have grown accustomed to the exorbitant costs of basic human services, the absence of parental leave protection and the unregulated presence of chemicals in food — things that would “cause riots” in Europe.”
1450 readers commented on this, many very interesting by people who have lived abroad.
It was just a short video—we need more. This contrast should be front and center, used by our media and candidates to enhance and widen our debates. We need reality---not Reality TV politicians.
What works in advanced capitalist countries is deemed unworkable here---by the powers that be. This has long put many of our progressives on the defensive. Some are pushing back, but it's not easy in our political culture.
At least the Times saw fit to give readers this unusual video. Please give us more.
13
As a non-affiliated partisan – issues, not party – centrist leaning , average American citizen…
When Trump was elected my sister warned me of the consequences that we would face due to Trump being elected president. Speaking as a veteran and proud American, I attempted to persuade her to give the new President a chance. Explaining that he was the President of the United States and deserved respect and to be at least given the opportunity to govern, after all he was elected by the people.
I have since learned how mistaken I was.
Everything I have ever learned about values, honesty, integrity has been dis-proven by our current President.
I’m very concerned. I’m not as proud to be an American anymore. Worse than that… I am having a real tough time encouraging my children to be proud Americans. Its very sad.
29
@PW Thank you for your honest and soul-searching reply. I share the same concerns.
13
I’m upset by Buttigieg’s rise.
He seems nothing more than an empty suit. His whole message seems to be “big ideas won’t work; I know because I went to college!”
No thanks.
16
How interesting because I’m delighted by his rise. He is a thoughtful person who wants change but with a plan to get there that includes unity rather than division.
How I miss Obama - an imperfect but honorable president and human being.
16
@C if you liked assault weapons shipped to cartels, he’s your guy. If you liked “strategic patience,” While China built fake islands, he’s your guy. If you liked spying on a presidential candidate and corruption at the top, he’s, once again, your guy.
1
@aldebaran : If you like assault weapon in the hands of mass shooters, Trump’s your guy. If you like to pay for tariffs and have American businesses and farmers go bankrupt due to tariffs, Trump’s your guy. If you like breaking election law, the emoluments clause and rampant corruption at the top, Trump’s your guy. Obama wanted to ban assault weapons, he wanted strong trade agreements to curb China, he did not spy on any presidential candidate and he was honest and ethical.
1
Warren or bust!
no go Joe is unelectable
8
@Richard — I'm afraid it will be bust, then. I regret this.
6
Buttigieg is a very intelligent and well spoken man but he can not win a national election for president at this time; maybe he could be VP first to give people a chance to get to be comfortable with him but many people can not get past his sexuality for the Presidency at this time.
4
@JRS: You mean those hypocritical Evangelicals who got past Trump’s crass and sordid sexuality?
3
I’m a huge Mayor Pete fan !!!
GO PETE !!!
10
@Chris M. *** so are all the big money PACS .. pharma, military complex, health care & insurance lobby ... he's bought and paid for
3
The only way to stop prejudice against any woman candidate is to vote for her.
Vote by vote prejudice will disappear and it will become a non-issue.
Just like it is a non-issue if a woman is a Governor, Senator or a Congresswoman, doctor, lawyer, executive, journalist, teacher, minister, singer, astronaut, writer--you name the vocation, it is a non-issue.
Warren/Booker 2020.
7
Still like Biden but alas he's out. Bernie should have bowed out post heart attack. no way will he win. Thus we turn to Warren but she's so left that when people go to vote they'll hold their nose and vote Trump to keep their money.
14
...or they vote for Warren to reverse/claw back the asinine tRump tax cutcutcut which should easily make it possible to fund her plans.
1
We have a failing education system, an infrastructure of roads and bridges that are decaying, overly expensive healthcare system, environmental problems, drug problems, racial bias problems, I could go on and on. Every four years we elect a president and then, almost immediately, start the election process again. And its the same for Senators and House Representatives. And all the candidates make promises to fix all of these problems. And four years later, we still have the same problems. I live in Oregon and our two Senators, Wyden and Merkley, live in Washington,D.C. I'm not sure if they know where Oregon is anymore. We have all of the problems listed above and have had for many terms of these two Senators. They have done little for Oregon that improved our condition. And yet, they keep getting re-elected. We blame the do-nothing politicians for all of our problems. We, the voters, are to blame. I'm tired of hearing what Warren or Sanders or anyone else will do if elected. They won't. They can't. The House is run by Democrats and the Senate is run by Republicans. That's like jamming on the brakes in your car. You'll not progress at all, and not progressing is what we are doing as a country. And I see no progress in the future. Maybe its the process and maybe us, but if nothing changes, in four, eight, twelve years from now we'll be in the same place if not worse.
12
@JrpSLm Spot on.
2
Honestly, what are you talking about? Where do you want your senators to be? Portland or Washington? They can’t vote in Portland.
Oregon is doing just fine. Net federal funding: $2,477 per resident. Total revenue from fed. gov.: $45.7 billion (24th least). Median household income: $60,212 (20th highest).
Your politicians are basically doing their job.
6
In today's New York Times there is an important article entitled "Trump's Opposition to Endless Wars Appeals to Those Who Fought Them". Yet in this piece not a word about our endless and senseless wars, foreign policy, national security, Syria, the Kurds, North Korea, China, etc. And where are the Democrats on all of this?
Since I have been alive, we have dropped two nuclear weapons on Japan, fought against North Korea, overthrew the elected leader of Iran, replacing him with the Shah, overthrew the elected President of Chile, replacing him with Augusto Pinochet, waged a 10 year, senseless war against Vietnam, invaded mighty Grenada and then launched an unwinnable, 18 year war against Afghanistan, invaded and fought two wars against Iraq.
This brings me to China. No nation in the history of the world has done what China has done since Mao Tse Tung said in 1948 "The Chinese people have stood up." Mao created a state, Deng Xiaoping modernized the state, Xi Jinping is exporting the modernization for infrastructure of the state with the Belt and Road Initiative. This isn't Chinese altruism but the path to influence and power. And China is much better at it than we are.
China built a high speed rail network covering its 5 time zones in just ten years. It is one of the best in the world. Outside the NE corridor, most Amtrak trains are slower now than in 1900.
What will be our response to China and our crumbling infrastructure, our divided Democracy?
20
The Democrats provides Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, ACA. These program help people. Ms Warren Medicare for all will be good for all Americans. All I want the Dems to do is to push this accomplishments, and most of Trump followers who live in Florida and in other part of American will know that the Democrats are the reason they are alive. Compare to the Republicans. All they did was, to take us to war, spend our money, 22 Trillion $ in debt. and break our heart. They Take from the poor ( DT new tax) and give to the rich. When you make money, I think you are supposed to pay off your debt? We have a good economy as the GOP says, but this year alone our deficits increased by 1 Trillion dollars? Will this MAGA? Think people for the sake of your Kids.
12
@Peanut Slept through the warning signs of immanent attack that was 9/11; conducted a 750K dead and $3 trillion war on false pretenses; and took the brakes off regulation and looked the other way while the economy crashed in 2008.
These are unconscionable. These our are neighbors.
2
There are moments when Mr. Biden really impressed me such as that moment on sixty minutes when he looked into the camera to speak to Trump and said in a steely low key voice 'c'mon buddy. Show us your tax returns'. We need someone who can meet Trump with such steel and at the same time relate to voters needs and present policies clearly. Each of our candidates have some of these traits to one degree or another.
I wish Biden were a little younger, with less baggage and consistently tough. I wish Sanders were less a lecturer and less like an old uncle. I wish Warren were less of a cheer leader and more flexible though her policies are fine. I wish Mayor Pete was a bit tougher, more experienced though he is so articulate.
There is something about Amy Klobuchar that says this lady is tough though low key, not a grand stander, smart , knows her stuff and could reveal Trump for the Trump into the idiot he is. Will she slip in there at the last moment? Happy, but surprised if she did.
9
@just Robert Two things we should not wait for: the perfect life partner. Tne perfect candidate.
7
NY Times — you missed the important point that President Bernie Sanders would be our first Jewish President. Thanks.
18
@Molly L also our first unAmerican socialist
1
The striking thing is the rise of Buttigieg. People see in him a sincere man, a brilliant person ( a Rhode's scholar) who doesn't flail his arms like O'Rourke and Warren, who speaks with a calmness that the country needs now. Many of us are sick and tired of strident voices on both sides ( Warren and Trump) and would prefer a united not a divided nation. Speaking thoughtfully with conviction will be the counter to Trump. You can't out trump Trump. You have to have a clear contrast. Go Pete!!
23
I just don’t get any of this electability handwringing. Trump just needs to go.
Biden is way too old and feeble. He gets overshadowed at every debate among his own party. Warren is definitely better.
This country needs real change and someone on the dem side aggressive enough to put the republican party out of its misery. I’m not sure any of the candidates are that person.
Regardless, I’ll vote for a cat, dog or plant over trump. Whoever is in opposition to that monster has my vote.
20
Beto dropped out? No one will notice.
7
@Brewster Millions
Beto will be President one day.
Yes, president of his cub scout pack
5
Personally, I am getting tired of having two of the whitest states in the country, one of which is dominated by the ethanol industry/farm sector, having so much say about the nomination. I am tired of reading about Iowa.
24
Do polls really mean anything these days?
7
This may be good news for Elizabeth Warren and not for Joe Biden, but the Iowa caucuses turn on how many voters come to the caucuses and argue in support of their candidate. This system, unlike a straight primary vote, may produce a winner, but the number of participants in the process, in the dead of winter, is very small. It may give one candidate or another a psychological boost and help attract more donations, but is it a real reflection of acceptance of the person’s policy positions?
We all know that campaigning is a rough business and promises made are rarely carried out by the election winner. Many other things can intervene. So, what is the Democratic Party doing to unite its extreme wings with the mainstream middle to produce sufficient voters to win in November 2020?
Is Biden a has-been? I’m two months younger than him and I think he’s had more than one bite at the apple and lost. If he were to be the Dem candidate, I think he would lose and Trump would win. Trump would hammer him on Hunter’s board membership of a Ukrainian gas company. He would have Putin’s backing. If Warren, Klobuchar, or Harris were to be the nominee, it would be more difficult for the Trump crowd to attack one of them on substance without alienating a major share of the electorate: women. His team would have to brand them Soviet commies. Trump would have to go after personal character and this would be a joke.
4
Blanket forgiveness of student loans makes absolutely no sense. This suggestion is where Warren lost the middle ground. I totally wrote her off. And I am an NPA that votes in every general election but is not allowed to vote in a primary. BUT, BUT... I will never vote for Trump.
1
@TDD
She hasn’t proposed forgiveness of all student loans. Sanders did that. Her plan has a limit for amount to be forgiven and a phase out based on income level. The details matter.
12
Love Joe, but if he's the nominee, Democrats will be repeating the same mistake of 2016: nominating an tired, old, "it's my turn" candidate who can't energize young people to get out and vote. Additionally, very much like Clinton, Joe has one faux scandal that will be plaguing him the entire 2020 race: Hunter Biden is the new emails. As in, not a *real* scandal (especially relative to Trump's rampant daily corruption), but also not easy to explain away. Just like Hillary's "I broke no rules" defense on the private server, "it was allowed" is not convincing when it comes to describing why the VP's son was involved in some shady energy company in Ukraine.
We can't repeat the mistakes of 2016. Fortunately, it looks like we won't have to - even Sanders is a better pick in my mind. "He's honest" sure looks compelling when you're running against the most corrupt president in 100 years.
12
We keep tying ourselves up in knots about whether the Democratic path to victory is by turning out the progressive base or persuading independents. We need both. And every time a multi-trillion dollar project is proposed or an expensive give-away is mooted, people get scared and will stay home or reluctantly vote for Trump.
The election will be decided by a small number of people in a small number of States (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota). Voters in the general election (unlike primary voters) know that Congress will water down any overly ambitious "plan".
Did Lincoln or FDR or Obama campaign with a freight train full of plans? No. They campaigned on trust and hope.
It's a shame that Klobuchar and Bennet have not done better. They may not be the most appealing candidates in a primary, but probably have the best chance of trouncing Trump next year and increasing the likelihood of also carrying the Senate.
5
The Democrats need to come up with plan B. I look at this list of candidates, and there is no way that enough swing voters would vote for Warren or Sanders. They may be the best candidates, but, that's not what 2020 is about. 2020 is about getting Trump out.
12
Ahh, the trolls & others who sew dissension among the faithful are fully represented here. How the dynamics of “using schemes to pretend to join, agree to all & then subvert Dems” do play out so well.
Realistically, all those beneath the top 4 are not going to gain traction in this cycle, Beto proves this & wisely let go. So sad that his ego did not allow doing greater good for the country be his next move.
Gentle Joe now needs to read the writing on the wall; Too little & too late. Thanks Joe.
Senator Sanders dreamings gave birth to needed causes but Father Time eventually gets to us all. Senator Warren is his offspring to give real life to his dreams.
Mayor Pete is articulate, well read & w some limited experience but with baggage that will sink any ship. No Dem ship will pass muster without people of color. For Mayor P, that muster won't happen, written by one of his obstacles.
That leaves the Good Lady from MA & ONLY that Lady. Anyone pushing any other idea is only going to help our defeat.
Hate these words, if you must, but give this a thought; We know that the GOP is seeking help from any & every group, they would sell out their mothers to stay in power.
The frontrunner is the ONLY one who none of the others can claim she/he is not ready. No one can DENY: She has done her homework, She is a pillar of strength, She is always open to new knowledge AND She has shown she can take a lick, even a beating, & fight her way back.
Sen Warren 2020 to finish the HRC Dream.
11
I’m not gung-ho about our chances. as I am a large bit depressed and just cynical, a terrible politico combo
I still am waiting for deity’s phone call, and I’d accept the charges...not, too dumb to be a good politician
DJT is pathologically cynical amongst other such disorders
He is a true fake and without a decent moral conscience.
Bonne luck to our semi lucky winner
I’m for all to please constructively help her/him in
any/every way, unity ain’t bean bag either btw
Try not to be too regretful, while we as junkies empathize/understand what it has to feel like
2
Warren will be McGovern redux.
I knew George and was a classmate of his daughter Terry at UVA and worked on his campaign.
America wasn’t ready for a thoughtful, self effacing war hero and progressive and re-elected a crook instead.
Unfortunately expect the same in 2020.
9
@winthropo muchacho
America seems to fall for crooks.
We elected another whose wife modestly only had a "good Republican cloth coat."
3
Mayor Pete Buttigieg could be a surprise candidate .
His intellectuality could be hard to beat.
But Amy Klobuchar has the personality to be a great President.
14
She's not my favorite, but yes Warren could win. We shouldn't be dissuaded from supporting a clearly superior candidate seeking in good faith to lead for the national benefit just because she is a woman and some of us are still hung up over gender. Someone *is* going to shatter the glass ceiling, and if Warren is the choice of Democrats in 2020, then heaps of shame on America if it chooses Trump instead. The key is white women: Will they mostly vote for a misogynist again, or will they finally do what men do and factor their own gender in and support another woman?
7
Progressive thinking includes free rides for all. Sad to say, there are no free rides. Unless one lives with their parents.
9
Once conclusion I've made. Klobuchar or Buttigieg need to be on the ticket. Midwesterners. That may count for more with Klobuchar who has good experience with rural voters in Minnesota. While not having Pete's CV, she is more experienced in politics and knows about Washington. Pete's support may be stronger on the coasts than the heartland despite him coming from there. But neither one could carry the ticket. There needs to be strength at the top. So far I don't see it. But at this stage, Obama was far behind and his chances being discounted. Will a star yet be born?
11
@blgreenie
Neither appears to be polling well in the Midwest and the VP slot on the ticket will have little impact. I wouldn’t count on the nominee choosing another candidate from this group.
3
Who cares whether Warren appears to be ahead. Her plans of Medicare for all will lose the Democrats the election. But then again, the Democrats are their worst enemy. They have not learned one thing from the last election defeat!
18
@Don Juan
Democrats always want to do the right thing which too often is to their detriment, this being politics. It's finding the winning thing that they need to do.
1
@Don Juan
Maybe they will hire you so that you can teach them.
3
Could never vote for Warren. Could never vote for Bernie. Neither will win and sad to say, we need someone who can bring votes from quietly terrified Republican voters who worry about Trump and Friends wrecking the country and the spineless senators and congresspeople who are respinning the interpretation of what is against the law.
Warren is just too far off. She may have a few reasonable ideas, but she hasn’t the ability to keep away from saying things that make her look as if she’ll be unpresidential.
We need a strong leader, reasonable, moderate and smart. We need someone who will be able to pull the country back from the edge of the gutter of lawlessness where this current out-of-control liar has taken us.
We’re in dire straits here. Too many voters skipped their history and political science classes so are ignorant about what this means to have this destructive man in office and that they are represented by selfish and corrupt enablers. Party over ethics.
Never did I dream that this would happen in my lifetime, but the framers did imagine this - and made this Constitution to enable a sustainable republic. They were escaping a monarchy that had driven them to seek a better way. If people read our country’s history they would understand this.
Read: Declaration of Independence, The US Constitution, The Federalist Papers, and the Bill of Rights, timeframes and what led to the Civil War, WWI, and WWII.
Our republic is precious and fragile. We need a miracle.
3
WAKE UP AMERICA, the only way this country will experience a new vision is when Trump is out of the White House. The only way that will happen is to vote for a Democrat, and the only Democrat that can make that happen is Biden. First and foremost is to rid ourselves of the corruption that permeates Trump’s administration; having accomplished that, then we can construct a new vision. Warren and Sanders will be tarred and feathered as socialists and/or communists and Mayor Pete (who is the best of the bunch) will be subjected to venom and vituperation relating to his lifestyle. OUR DEMOCRACY CANNOT SURVIVE ANOTHER FOUR YEARS OF TRUMP.
8
I never understood the overly hyped importance of the polls in Iowa apart from the fact that they are the first state to vote in a primary. The Des Moines Register newspaper gets the same clout as The New York Times when its editors reveal which candidates their paper officially endorses. Average Joes and Janes are interviewed by out-of-town national correspondents over coffee in the local diner about what issues are most important to them. Iowa's caucus draws a lot of attention now but for the rest of the year it is a rather quiet, largely agricultural state. What about the rest of us throughout the country who have our own diverse interests for voting for a candidate? I feel left out of the process and have never even been polled in over 20 years of voting in a primary. Do I have to move to Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina to have my voice be heard at this stage of the primary election cycle?
10
That we allow Iowa to go first every Presidential election and have such a disproportionate influence on choosing our nominees is about as undemocratic as anything I can think of.
9
I really believe that once voting begins.......people will be shocked at the high levels of unpolled Bernie support.
10
Senator Amy is the one. Bern and Liz are political anomalies - their ideas will never pass muster. Mayor Pete is a close second to Amy.
9
@Ia Rd Hog
Amy gets nervous when someone stands too close to her on a stage. How do you think she would handle Putin or Kim? That stunt eliminated her for me.
4
@TDD Why would either get close?
2
@TDD
Agreed. She was shaking while speaking during the last debate and sounded as if she was about to cry.
4
Not sure why money and energy is being spent on these polls and the discussions about their results. I guess perhaps because it helps sell papers and keeps people believing the choice is theirs.
The only opinion that matters is comrade Putin's. With US intelligence agencies' hands tied behind their backs by this administration, he will again determine the outcome of the next election.
3
I would love to see Amy Klobuchar as P and Pete B. as VP. There is no way that treasonous trump could compete with Senator Klobuchar and likewise Mayor Pete would turn pence inside-out on his doublespeak.
11
I'm reading way too many comments obsessing about who other people might vote for. That is a big mistake, and it usually backfires.
Vote your conscience in the primary. And vote for the Democratic nominee, whomever it is, on Nov 3, 2020.
20
@MidtownATL
Your reasonable comment just isn’t suitable for these types of threads.
5
I am saddened that the Democrats are working so hard to help Trump overcome his own failures and obvious ignorance and venality and win in 2020.
For every "intersectionality", "privilege" , "diversity", "gender" and other symbols of ideological dogma and identity wars powered by extreme left's cultural re-education campaign (where are the camps?) more middle of the road voters will simply not vote or even hold their nose and vote Trump.
Socialism under every guise is an anti-evolutionary philosophy. It can't succeed among Homo Sapiens'. Same goes for claims of complete "equality" between sexes, gender "fluidity", and other puzzle pieces of what constitutes today's fringe left "platform".
10
Warren is leading? Trump and the Republicans could not be happier.
Warren thinks a school teacher in flyover country (e.g. swing states) who responsibly worked his way through a state college and his dental hygentist wife who attended community college should pay more taxes. That way Warren can forgive the $150K - $200K student debt of someone who got a degree in creative writing or womens studies or queer theory or art history and spent a semester abroad in Barcelona.
That is Liz Warren's idea of justice and fairness. Warren says only the rich will pay more taxes. There are not enough rich people to tax for the amount of giveaways Warren is promising.
15
Gabbard is the one to watch - female, of color, and Hindu - beat that for diversity. Some polls now have her surpassing Harris and Yang and neck and neck with Klobuchar. Unlike Klobuchar, Gabbard is not a Republican! Ignore Gabbard at your peril - ordinary people like her because she has a raw, honest foreign policy and Progressive domestic policy
6
@Redneck If a progressive primary winner doesn't pick Gabbard for veep, they're giving up that rare politician capable of uniting disparate elements & drawing people into the progressive fold. She has more foreign policy chops than all the rest put together.
4
@Apple Jack
Agree. I will go one step farther. If a moderate Dem wins the nomination, they will do well to chose Gabbard as VP. She will heal any wound with the Progressive wing of the party and get a young, robust and energetic partner to carry the fight to Trump. Dems need to get young people enthusiastic.
2
John Kerry, We Need You!!!
Save our Country!!!!
@SaviorObama -- What? That has-been? No thank you!
7
I don't believe that any of the top four can beat Trump alone. Polls have proven to be seriously wrong and America less predictable than assumed. Possibly a Warren/Biden ticket could win but would be a weak win at best. Pete and Bernie just won't carry the Centrist vote. I still have high hopes for Klobuchar and Harris: both are experienced and directed but Harris seems to have played out her hand. I would like to Steyer more out in front of America but alas something isn't clicking.
BTW where is the guy in his sixties with military experience, a law degree and experience practicing law as well as time being successful in state politics... and little or no dirty laundry? He is staying very far away from the Democratic party because it's all the leadership's show, and they want it to stay that way... regardless of how good that guy might be.
Good men need not apply.
3
You really think Harris is presidential material??
4
I vote to stop showing NYT and other polls to determine where the candidates stand. Just putting up those numbers every week sways people's opinions to get behind a winner and don't give much of a chance to the lower tier candidates. I just read an interesting in-depth article for example about Bullock who is a compelling candidate and someone I never heard of before the debates. He is not even on the radar. All those polls also seem to be overly contingent upon campaign funds raised so far? If so, what an unfair way to get to know other candidates for what he or she stands for instead of the campaign dollars they have in their coffers. Additionally, just who is being polled? I have never received a call in over 20 years of voting nor have any of the friends I have asked. Besides, when all is said and done, how well did all that polling data work out for Hillary Clinton?
9
Just one poll. The numbers are all over the place. These primaries will be all over the place before they get decided.
2
Joe Biden, upon close inspection, is a seemingly nice old guy with a mind that is obviously fading. It also doesn't help that he has allowed his son Hunter, who has suffered from alcohol and drug addiction, to make money off his name. That kind of is nepotism is exactly what the grifter Trump is doing for Ivanka, Donald Jr., Eric and Jared. Time to get some honest people in the White House in 2020.
3
@Joe Miksis Yes!!
3
Joe Biden is history. Once the darling of the democrat establishment (much like Hillary), his own arrogance got the better of him. He just had to brag about the firing of Victor Shokin, the Ukraine prosecutor investigating corruption in Hunter's company. But the real gaffe was stating, "Hunter and did nothing wrong - but we won't do it again..."
Mainstream America recognizes corruption and establishment swamp when it sees it. Buh Bye.
6
@99percent -- Biden is anything like arrogant and he is nothing like Hillary. Seems you are a trump supporter.
6
No surprise that Gabbard's and Steyer's 2% are not included with the others here. Tulsi Gabbard just got 4% in the USA Today poll, ahead of ALL the candidates except the top three and Buttigieg. Instead of this, the news is widely reporting that Tulsi "failed to qualify" for some Iowa campaign event - as though it were an issue of her popularity, rather than because her campaign chose not to purchase the DNC's donor list!
6
Warren has absolutely no appeal to blacks or minority voters. Iowa is mostly white. She also has no appeal in the rust belt. She and Bernie will probably force a second ballot where the insider superdelegates will pick the winner. It’s all rigged just like the last time.
3
Iowa? Isn't that a Red State? The media gives Iowa an outsized importance simply because it's first.
If you want a reality check -- word is Trump plans to sign the short-term trade pact with China in Iowa.
He knows where his bread it buttered -- even if we Democrats are fooled!
2
Just heard Vice President Biden's interview with NPR's Judy Woodside -- the guy rocks! Realistic, quickly actionable plans, passionate support for real people hurt by the current administration.
3
As a Republican - my dream ticket is Sen. Warren and the Mayor.
Our candidate will get in blind folded without saying a word.
Hard to believe these polls.
But that one chart that boxes these candidates as per identity shows the Democrat dilemma clearly.
Identity politics at it's best or worst.
I wish Democrats would go away from this model.
At the end of the day - political science has long told us that presidential elections are determined by 15% of our population.
Almost 40% of electorate is either Republican or Democrat.
Out of remaining 20% - almost 5% don't care one way or the other.
Trick is to convince remaining 15%
And if I were a betting man - majority of this 15% will not go for Medicare for all candidate and a candidate who got nomonated only because he is gay.
3
The country needs a new vision. Warren and Sanders provide that new vision.
It isn't a vision of Men vs. Women, it isn't one of Old vs. Young, but it is one of Rich vs. Poor.
We will either become more egalitarian or we'll lose.
What does losing in this respect mean?
It means we'll fight within, we'll have a weaker national defence shell, and we'll all wish for the past.
We could go the way of the Soviet Union of we can't become more egalitarian.
Winning the next election cannot be the main concern. Makeing us a strong nation within should be the main concern.
It isn't hard to do this. It just means we have to believe that our incomes shouldn't be so far apart. I'm not suggesting we all get paid the same, far from it. Doctors need to get paid quite a bit more than those who do manual labor because of the educational demands.
We can bring incomes back to reality. I think that top doctors deserve as much as the top CEOs. Maybe a million a year. That seems like a good cap, which can be enforced with taxes.
That said, the salary of top doctors will need to be brought down to reality. A top doctor deserving a million a year is one that is doing top research and top work at perhaps 10 universities, and maybe 2 or 3 of them there.
CEOs -- They deserve far less. A top CEO would be one at Amazon, Apple, GM or something like that. They wouldn't be the head of United Health Care. That CEO gets capped at a million a year for sure. You don't do much, sir!
8
@Dave What we need more than a vision is to preserve our democracy. And the only way we can do that is to vote Trump out of office. Nothing, and I mean, nothing, is as important as that!
4
I am not surprised that Biden is falling; by now every thinking literate person in the USA knows that he bragged about his contribution to quid pro quo and that he got away with it.
As for Warren, as soon as the people wake up and think seriously about her proposal for free medical care for all, and common sense sinks in, those who work and contribute and take care of their families the old fashioned way will abandoned this pie in the sky idea. Increasing social security benefits by $200 per month? You must contribute, put money in the pot, Ones contribution is based upon what they earn; to get more you have to either earn more or contribute more. Wishful thinking! Free college? Someone will have to pay: salaries, rent, texts, lab fees, maintenance, etc. Dream on folks. I am running out of time so I will not go further than the Headline and the first Position chart. Just not worth it.
3
Yeah, health care for everyone? Ridiculous!
3
@old sarge Biden isn't failing. Actually, he is the only sane one in the lot!
1
@Don Juan
I won't argue that but to me Gabbard seems a tad more sane. But that is splitting hairs.
2
And she leads a morally bereft party. Kudos to her.
3
A shame Amy Klobuchar's rating is so low, because IMO in middle America she has the best chance of beating Trump, and she has altogether the most reasonable program for the US going forward.
9
@gbdoc
Basically a Republican (Democrat in name only).
2
To have the top 3 runners be a woman with a health care policy that America will not support, and an aging septagenarian who can hardly say a sentence straight, and a young gay mayor as our top 3 candidates is to beggar disbelief
Somehow the Democratic Party seems to be finding a way to lose to the most hated and least popular president in modern history.
14
Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Hands down. Warren is a purveyor of byzantine credit card law that only the dimmest of wits fall afoul of. That's not a paving ground for this gig. It's a 60 Minutes spot.
4
I'm done with it! Obamacare premiums, deductibles and co-pays were not fixed, although it could have happened if Bernie & Elizabeth had not attacked a decent program. Socialism! Everybody gets the same. Take from those who work to give to those who want to watch TV all day! This is why the Republicans will win again. The freeloaders control the Democratic Party.
9
@Ann
Those who want to watch TV all day? You are easily distracted, and misled. With voters like tou, maybe democracy isn't the best way to go.
9
"They traditionally require Democrats to gather at myriad locations around the state for a multiround process in which voters group themselves behind their first-choice candidate; if a candidate registers less than 15 percent support, their supporters can reallocate themselves to other candidates." I have never lived in Iowa but I have been voting in primaries in a variety of states where I lived for almost fifty years. If every state operated their primaries like these archaic and convoluted Iowa caucuses, I might have never voted in a primary at all.
1
The interesting and contradictory results of this poll just goes to show how vacuously out of touch most people are with their own perceptions.
89% of these voters support a $200 increase in Social Security checks, 73% support single-payer healthcare, and 70% support free college tuition. But when asked what sort of candidate they would like, only 41% said they would support a candidate that "is more liberal than most Democrats" and only 43% said they'll support a candidate "who will fight for a bold progressive agenda."
You know what that means? It means these respondents support candidates who are "more liberal than most Democrats" and "who will fight for a bold progressive agenda" by a wide margin, but they are apparently averse to the words "liberal" and "fight"
That's why when you are out polling, you need to be aware of trigger words and avoid them.
8
Candidates like Sanders and Warren would do better if instead of pushing for Medicare for All, they just focused on the cost of prescription drugs. For most Americans with chronic health conditions, it's the cost of their drugs that is really hurting their finances. We don't want to stifle innovation with a universal health care system, but devising a plan to ensure that Americans can afford the drugs they're prescribed is ethical and doable.
7
What kind of innovation are you talking? Innovated ways to take as much money as possible and deliver as little as possible? Thank you but I don't want such innovations. Affordable healthcare will be just enough
1
You know what stifles drug innovation? Maintenance drugs taken forever are much more profitable than cures.
2
@Mark -- that's what I have been saying as well!
The race comes down to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Anything else is political entertainment.
The Democratic nominee has to win those states. More specifically, they need to be polling well in Macomb County, Milwaukee suburbs, Lehigh Valley and Western PA.
There is not going to be this huge turnout either. The electorate will look similar to what it has always been. Inner Party shenanigans with voter suppression, discrimination and foreign political interference will see to it.
Ohio, Texas, North Carolina and Arizona will continue to have Outer Party mob support.
The only question/poll I want to see is how each of the leading Democratic candidates poll in the three battleground places because that will determine the election.
2
@Practical Thoughts
Of course. So far press is curiously not paying enough attention to those places, similar to last time. Polling there is one thing. Will Democrats' candidate choose to campaign there?
2
@Practical Thoughts
You’re claiming you know the particular counties that will determine the outcome of the general election, but you have no idea how the candidates are polling in the states where those counties are located?
4
If history is any judge, the Iowa caucus will be quickly forgotten by the time of the New Hampshire primary. Super Tuesday will determine the winner, so cut Joe some slack. The road is long.
7
My taxes will go into the stratosphere under Warren, Sanders or Buttigieg, but my children's future will be healthier, safer and happier, and the last thing is the only thing that counts.
9
@reader
Your taxes are going into the stratosphere under any President, unless we return to rates which were effective prior to Reagan’s Administration.
3
@BK
That should have read “not going into the stratosphere...”
4
Does it matter which Democrat is in the lead? Think of it!
Most of us moderates, no matter the party affiliation, will most likely vote for whomever the Democratic candidate that wins the primary party ticket and goes on the ballot for the 2020 Presidential general election. I will.
Trump needs to go.
10
It’s time for the Democrats to whittle the field down to the top 4 candidates. The remaining candidates are just noise and steal valuable media time from the front runners. The impeachment is already sucking all the air out of the room so it’s time to focus on the most likely candidates.
6
This is fantasy.
3
Hey, what happened to the "Hope if Newark NJ? Lol...
An empty suit that can't attract believers.
2
So much of America is so biased and twisted they won’t vote for a woman, or a minority, or someone who is not heterosexual. And, for God’s sake whatever you do, don’t wear a beige suit.
7
Biden ? Come on, be serious !
White men of this generation need to get out of electoral politics.
(BTW: This is not sour grapes. I am a 75 year old white male).
8
When does Bloomberg enter the race?
7
@LS Agreed. I'm still hoping.
2
@LS
I’m sure a NYC billionaire who disagrees with Trump on many issues will play well in the Midwest.
4
I support Mayor Pete because of his intellect and the impact his sound policies have on me. I think most voters are beyond voting based on sex, race, or sexual orientation. Trump is a white male and look at the damage he did to our nation.
9
@Joseph B
He is 35 years old. Not enough exprience. Sorry but running a town of 100k people is not enough prep for being POTUS.
3
@Reader In Wash, DC
What prep did Trump have? Or Obama?
4
@blgreenie
Obama was a U.S. Senator and had many connections to D,C. prior to that. Pete would be relying even more on other people to help him choose a staff.
1
I will work against Warren, Sanders and any other progressives who will derail our chances of victory. However, that being said, if that's is all we got, heaven forbid, i'll vote for either of them. I'd vote for a wolverine before i'd vote for the oaf. I'm Biden al the way.....president on the first day who knows the ropes and can bring normalcy back to our discourses. Warren and Sanders are divider's. They belong in the Senate where we really need their input.
6
interesting stance. does that mean wolverine as in a fan of the team from Michigan? or does that mean any mammalian beast? define divisive please. define unity please.
@hal Paris. I respect your opposition to Sanders an Warren and your preference for Biden. What I admire is your wisdom to vote for any Dem candidate that opposes Trump in the general election.
8
Try Andrew Yang. Have a look and let us know what you think about him?
2
50 years? Try 12BC Augustas Octavian
Remember when you had us all convinced day after day that Hillary had a 99.9% chance of winning according to whatever wildly useless polls you were using? Thanks for that. #neverforget
16
She did win the popular vote by a large margin. And every poll had some chance of Trump winning. The problem is most voters (and pundits) don’t understand statistical probability.
7
1) That was Huff Post
2) She got some 3 million more votes than Trump did.
3
I vote for Buttigieg. I know he's young. So what that he's gay; that's a personal choice. Here's the most interesting part of this: who he'd select for Vice President and who'd be in his Cabinet. (After these past few years of total chaos in the WH, now we know how important that is!) It could be a delightful group and could even come from the whole long list of fellow candidates. What I want, more than anything, is coalition among the party. EVERYONE needs to be behind him. That's why I want Buttigieg: he's consensus forming.
7
Try Andrew Yang. Consensus forming AND revolutionary. We need to move forward in 2020.
4
what if all of the nominees got together and each asked for a portfolio, and created a coalition with rotating chair of the cabinet? what if with Warren and Harris, or Warren and Yang, or Biden and ..... decided to run as a team? what if Biden stepped down in favor of a different candidate and ask to be the Secretary of State for the next administration?
2
@Jenna O'Sullivan
Lol. Being gay “is a personal choice”?
2
PLEASE, PLEASE include the measurement error with all your data, and then USE IT to distinguish between numbers that are likely to represent real differences/changes and those that are not. It makes me crazy when reporters report small ones with polls running +/- 5 pts.
4
Why this poll only ask voter if they think those 4 candidates can beat Trump, but not each of all candidates? See Q14-Q17.
Warren will lead to a popular vote and electoral vote landslide......for Trump.
14
Frankly, it should be mandated that we begin campaigning in January of the election year and take big money out of it. Surely ten months is enough to make your case of why you should be elected.
7
@Fran. Taking private money out of politics will solve most of our political problems. No money influence means the elected officials must only listen to their constituents. No outsized influence from those who have a lot of money to spend. No influence from rich people outside of the constituency. No need for long/endless campaigns. Politicians don’t have to spend the majority of their time raising money and can focus on solving our problems. The one best thing we can do for our country is to take the money out of politics. We’d have to raise taxes by only about $10 per citizen per year to pay for it. Well worth the investment.
3
Warren is brilliant, affable, HONEST, incorruptible, and committed to the people. I hope folks give her a chance. I believe, like all Liberal Presidents, she will move closer to the Center if elected. After going thru the past 3 years we need someone with honest integrity.
14
@Philip W -- to be electable, Warren will have to move closer to the center NOW!!
1
I’m definitely a progressive. But I have no problem whatsoever voting for a moderate; in other words I can vote pragmatically or “with my head.”
We progressives, with our purity tests, are hopelessly romantic. We want to fall in love with a candidate like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren because their big ideas inspire us. And people vote because they are inspired. I get that.
But Republicans vote out of anger. They will hold on to that anger all the way to Election Day and hold their noses and vote with their heads for someone they wouldn’t invite to dinner.
Meanwhile progressive Democrats are still stuck on 2016 with Clinton, the DNC and the superdelegates. They have a point, but we should move on.
I will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is. That’s because it is more important to me that Trump is defeated than to sit out the election because I didn’t get all that I wanted.
16
Caucuses are the playgrounds of party activitsts. I love Elizabeth Warren, but until she proves she can get people to the polls to vote for her in primaries in various parts of the country, I won't be convinced of her national appeal. Let her beat Biden by getting voters to the polls and she'll be far more convincing.
3
Gotta love the liberal use of the term "Free" by many of these politicians when it comes to government services and payouts. But really "Free" just means you figured out a way to make someone else pay for it. For the moment at least, until that person becomes you. And it always does because in the end the consumer and tax payer always foot the bill.
7
“Free” means not having to be paranoid about losing your paycheck or health insurance at the wrong moment, leading to a cascade of events resulting in the total destruction of your life.
6
@Jose Pieste -- that is a myth. But if you do not have money in this country for care, guess what will happen? You will lose your life. Think about that!
On election day, Democrats will vote for whichever candidate has been nominated.
Independents (who are mostly centrists) and moderate Republicans who don't want to vote for Trump will both likely vote for a candidate closest to themselves in the political spectrum. These are the voters we must have and only a moderate Democrat will appeal to them. Those are Biden and Klobuchar.
Biden is worrisome. Let's listen again to Klobuchar and focus heavily on her in the next debate.
7
Me thinks the Democrats have been running scared since Reagan won the presidency about 4 decades ago. One would at last welcome that some Democratic contenders are showing signs that they recovered the long lost spine and are espousing progressive causes. This is a fresh relief, not something to be afraid about. Let the forward looking candidates keep ascending in the polls and, some of us at least, keep cheering them on. Go Elizabeth Warren, go! Many of us have your back.
9
All this year my motto has been “I’m for anybody that can beat Trump”. I must confess, however, I am thoroughly discouraged by Warren’s agenda w Medicare for all. Yes, I’ll still vote for whomever is the candidate to get the crook out of office but her platform is a disappointment for my friends, family and me. Sorry to confess this, but that agenda is going to lose a lot of moderates. And we’ll be stuck with him until 2024.
15
@SuzieQ -- He'll destroy the country. We have to have regime change.
2
Sanders and Warren will doom candidates in swing states further down the ticket. Having either of them on the ticket in MI, MN, KS, IA or TX will make it hard to flip or maintain seats in tight races. Kansas is a good example, a former Republican is running as a Democrat for Senate. She has a better shot than Kris Kobach, the presumptive Republican nominee. *BUT* having a super liberal Presidential candidate closes the door on potential moderate Republicans voting for a Democrat. People need to keep in mind that the Senate is almost more important than the White House. If Dems hold both houses of Congress, Donald Trump’s second term will last approx. 2 months.
10
The trend in these polls is consistent with what we have seen all along. As Warren and Buttigieg become better known through their rallies, interviews and debates, their popularity continues to rise. These are the candidates that are generating the excitement. To know them better, more often than not, is to be won over by them. Thus I am not overly impressed with the species of amateur punditry in this forum that foresees disaster based allegedly on how the rest of America will never accept a progressive, a woman, or a gay man as President. If, on the other hand, these commentators are saying that they personally would vote for Trump before either of these two (or three candidates if we include Sanders) then they have already imbibed the Kool-aid of the radical right, and we should put no faith in their authenticity as "moderates."
6
Many colleges have multi billion dollar endowments that they invest in real estate, vineyards, groundwater, etc. How about investing that instead in backing student loans? That would be most fair, invest in the product that you are turning out. And if your product fails and doesn't pay you back then you will rightly go out of business. It's time that colleges had a lot more skin in this game, as they have none now.
3
@baba ganoush
Colleges invest their endowments to make money, not lose it. And student loans, at best, return principal plus interest; they never appreciate.
3
While one can get an inkling of trends by studying percentages, we need more basic information before we consider options based on these numbers.
1. Total number of eligible dems in Iowa.
2.Subsets of this number by age, gender and locale ie. rural. urban.
3. Just what is the actual percentage of Iowa votes in the National election? How many electoral college seats does Iowa have?
4. Other than something to talk about till the big show actually starts, why in the world does anyone care about the Iowa caucus??
5. Have they ever had an impact on a presidential election?
2
All I can say about this is thank you Iowa for encouraging Biden to fade. I hope that fade continues and the race can begin in earnest. I've nothing against Biden, really, but his candidacy was replaying the last election and maybe a few before that, not this one, so I'm a bit relieved if this continues.
He probably would have defeated Trump in 2016. However, in every race for the presidency I've seen him participate, Biden seems like a hapless campaigner, like he can't be bothered to do what it takes maybe because he doesn't really want it? That's not an age thing. He's always seemed that way to me and I feel like it reflects how he would conduct himself in office.
The Hunter Biden issues Trump brought up...yeah the cozy Hunter Biden stuff was icky but they only reinforce my already stated impression that Joe Biden is hapless. Frankly, the other Democrats dropped the ball by not bringing that up themselves, really. Maybe they didn't want to damage a potential nominee but leaving that untouched was counterproductive. I feel like if my daughter was making tons of cash, clearly because of my position, that it would be a red flag for anyone who took the time to look, (for example Joe Biden, if he'd bothered) just on the basis of appearances. That he let it go on only underscores my original impression, that he's hapless. I don't think he's corrupt though.
5
Where is justice for those families who lost their loved ones do to the willful recklessness of Boeing executives. It is the false premise that government is there to ensure that its citizens are kept safe and no harm comes to them, when in truth the government is there solely to protect the money
And it's all done out in the open. What say you?
1
This poll does NOT show Warren in the lead.
With a 4.7% margin of error, readers and writers with any basic understanding of poll results know that this poll shows it is EQUALLY likely that Buttigieg or Sanders are in the lead. A 22% versus 18% spread, in a poll with 4.7% margin of error, does NOT EVEN mean it’s significantly more likely that one candidate truly has more voter support than the other.
This is another example of the many, many ways that American journalism does not meet what should be a top-tier goal: to elevate public understanding, and strengthen, rather than sometimes weakening, our democratic processes.
Virtually all journalists and politicians and pundits, along with many voters, know that reports about a candidate being “in the lead” or “not being in the lead” — whether correct or false — have immense impact on the candidate’s voter support, fundraising and general momentum. Mathematical illiteracy in reporting thus undermines our elections.
11
There are never perfect candidates but the degree of imperfections in the four front runners when combined with electoral college makes my heart sink. We Democrats in a sorry state. The only centrist candidate that can win nationally is sinking fast. Four more years of Trump post impeachment by the House will be far worse than anyone of us can imagine.
4
Please, everyone: "I would never vote for this one." "I would never vote for that one." Please don't say that.
We have two responsible choices to make: to turn out to vote, and to support whomever is the Democratic nominee, even if that person is not the one who captured our heart. Vote blue, no matter who: our country needs us!
4
I will vote for whoever is the nominee of the Democrats. I live in Illinois, a very blue state.
But I fear in my soul that Elizabeth Warren will lose to Trump, and that will be the end of the country.
8
I find it so undemocratic that tiny Iowa, with a fraction of the population of California, New York, etc., gets to have such a big say in who the nominee is. All primaries should happen on the same day.
3
I take note of the fact that, on one hand, of people polled, 54% (over 42%) clearly preferred a Democrat promising to bring "fundamental systemic change to American society." On the other, 51% (over 41%) want a Democrat "more moderate than most." Something is whack here. Are voters asking for an omelette made without breaking any eggs, or is this just another example of badly crafted polling in which we should not place much faith?
5
Our candidates seem so much more predetermined than in the past, when a dark horse unknown like (Bill) Clinton could suddenly surge ahead. I fear that the money machine is picking Warren, kind of like (Hilary) was pre-ordained in 2016. But I desperately want a next generation candidate who can excite and energize turn-out. I like Booker.
I'd like to see Klobuchar and Yang move up to serious candidate territory. They sound more intelligent than the others. They lack donor $$$ or clout behind them. Yang's policies require reading comprehension skills that are sadly lacking countrywide... I like Buttigieg but worry that this country is still too backward to elect him, despite his accomplishments and temperament. Harris stumbles when making points; she is however, a master of shade throwing, a skill that become more valuable if the current president's behavior is any predictor of what people want. I wish Biden and Sanders would drop out. Warren deservers to be in the top spot.
2
It's interesting to see the top 3 Socialists running have risen to the top three positions. This bodes poorly for the Democrat Party in that it shows just how far Left they have zoomed. They are essentially not electable. Add to that the fact that Democrats have literally accomplished nothing in the past three years than try to impeach Trump (and will fail even at that) and you have a scenario where Democrats are going to get brutally clobbered at the ballot box in 2020. The head of the DNC is a unrepentant Socialist and now Warren is proposing a $54 trillion dollar Medicare for all program. The entire Federal government budget is only $4.4 trillion dollars folks. People will scratch their heads and vote for Trump. I see a Trump landslide in the making.
5
I agree. The Democrats are going to shoot themselves in the foot once again and lose the race. This is a replay of McGovern's bid. Most of these folks don't remember McGovern though so these new progressives will have to learn the hard way, as I did so many years ago. I was stuck with Nixon and they'll be stuck with Trump.
1
Early in the process. Polls only one tool and often prove unreliable. My take at this point -- Biden/Warren ticket. Bernie graciously bows out and decides not to be a "spoiler" again. Throws his support to Biden/Warren. The rest of the field, get exposure, your time will come. Key of course is the ultimate Democratic Platform. Must have broad appeal. Above all else, must focus on Cadet "Sharpie" Bone Spurs and his well and frequently demonstrated venality. Vladimir won in 2016 -- America lost. Never again.
Why do you specify Ms Warren and at the same time you use Bernie Sanders or Mayor Pete as easy accessibility to these persons? I think Ms Warren could be treated with the same familiarity as her opponents, otherwise it gives the sense that she is far away or scary as strong women are usually pictured. Thanks for your comments
1
Many of us were elated when Trump was booed at the World Series. But for me, his prime time campaign ad replaced the elation with the brain numbing reality that although money will be no problem for his campaign it may determine the winner of the race in the flyover state.
2
None. Where's Bullock, wasn't he polling ahead of Klobuchar and Harris in Iowa just a couple weeks ago?
1
Knock Mr. Biden out of the race and the chances improve that the Democrats will defeat Mr. Trump 52 weeks from now, assuming that Mr. Trump will still be around to run for re-election.
Mr. Biden exemplifies a candidate whose time has long passed. For those of a certain age, Mr. Biden reminds one of Harold Stassen's repeated runs for the same job. From 1958 and 1990 Mr. Stassen ran with increasing humiliation for Governor of Pennsylvania, Governor of Minnesota, Mayor of Philadelphia, US Senator, and Congressman. He sought the Republican nomination for president in 1964, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992. Those who remember him cannot do so without having to suppress laughter.
Sometimes one simply needs to know when it's time to pack your bags and go home before it simply becomes overwhelmingly humiliating. Don't do this to us, Mr. Biden, and don't do this to yourself. Joe Biden, the Democrats answer to Harold Stassen and his repeated humiliations.
If Mr. Obama really likes Mr. Biden, as Mr. Biden claims, he will counsel him to stop this foolish campaign.
4
I'm optimistic about the American voter.
Buttigieg has held his ground late into the game. Let America open its heart and eyes.
Could we be on our way to a huge, glorious equal opportunity first?
Then could we all say with price,
"God Bless America".
5
Bernie Sanders appears to have "surged", now second in Iowa and polling in first in Nevada and New Hampshire, but it's difficult not to notice that his name fails to appear in the headline. I'm probably just imagining it, just like I would be imagining that for the second presidential campaign in a row the New York Times has chosen former Black Rock analyst Sydney Ember to cover Sanders' campaign. Every single one of her last four "articles" have mentioned how Sanders' campaign was failing and how he's struggling to expand his base. It is indeed a struggle when corporate media does its best to make you invisible by keeping you out of the headlines and having a corporate Hillarycrat cover your anti-corporate campaign, so in that context I would say the Sanders campaign is doing quite remarkably.
7
Bernie has a lot of unfortunate baggage from 2016 and the Bernie Bros stuck to him.
2
@Barry Kaufman
Agreed. The NYTimes ignored Bernie’s candidacy in 2016 and favored Hilary. They are doing it again this time. Friend of mine just unsubscribed from this newspaper for this very reason. I hope I won’t have to do the same.
1
Whether he ends up impeached and maybe removed from office for it, Trump did damage Biden. Of course, Biden has done some self-damage of his own, but the Ukraine thing really didn't help.
4
It is nice to see Biden float downward. I can never forgive him for Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill. We need a President with character, not a smarmy apparatchik.
2
All I can say is thank heavens. it was time. More moves coming.
2
There shd be a poll to see how many former Republicans plan to vote for Biden rather than Warren. My #1 goal is to beat Trump and for this reason, I am voting for Biden.
4
Tight poll? Statistical dead heat for all four at the front of the pack. Like New England weather, it will change.
3
The math on 1st and 2nd choices, 81 liberal to 50 something moderate is stunning maybe not as stunning as Warren and Bernie's war chests.
A slight correction/oversight to add the list of firsts:
Buttigieg - first gay candidate
Warren - third woman candidate (Shirley Chisholm, folks)
Sanders - first Jewish candidate
For some reason, the fact that we have never had a Jewish person as president fails to get mentioned, but it, too, would be a first. He is a real mensch who stands up for those who can't stand up for themselves.
3
@nora m Who cares about these identifiers? Let us examine their platforms...
2
The Democrats are blowing it. At a time and they need another Obama, Clinton, or JFK, they’re pulling a McGovern or Dukakis out of their hat. This, against arguably the weakest competition they could face.
4
That’s because the majority of people are progressive not corporate centrists. People want change for the better for Americans not global conglomerates who are permitted to act like parasites in having access to our market but who either receive corporate welfare, corporate incentives or pay no taxes. They don’t want this to continue. Instead of getting on board these throw backs like Biden criticize the voters. The remaining centrist probably are too lazy to understand the programs that could restructure America or lack they vision or intellect to support them. Change is coming whether they like it or not and the earth is not waiting for them to catch up. No black person or woman in their right mind would vote for Biden at this point.
3
Take the hint, Joe. It's not going to be this time either.
3
You go, Liz.
1
This is TERRIBLE, FATAL news for the people, our nation, our human civilization and species.
As we spiral toward extinction of our civilization and all or most of our species, these terrible Democrats, media (NYT), and Iowa citizens divert our attention to everything else.
It appears they are all misleading our grandchildren and generations that follow to the ELIZABETHAN EXTINCTION.
1
Another news alert that conspicuously doesn't mention Sanders, who is in second place. Bernie who? Let's just write more "Klobuchar In 14th, But A Strong 14th" pieces.
5
The comments are rife with cliches. Still I am getting a kick out of reading the enthusiasm of American voters.
Iowa, your caucuses rock.
Hillary Clinton was also the "frontrunner" during her entire run for office -- until she lost to a buffoon orangutan game show host that she herself promoted through the media.
Polls? People lie. When the base data is false, the output can never be correct.
The problem is that people have not progressed much from the times when the guys in funny hats killed goats and tried to predict the future from the mess on the rock table. We still are looking for prognosticators not reporters.
Remember this ?
"Donald Trump will never be president"- just about everyone.
All published polling results predicting an outcome should be required to include a standardized measure of previous accuracy of prediction.
4
Actually she remained the “frontrunner” in the sense that she got some 3 million more votes than Trump did. The problem was about 70,000 votes in 3 states: the Electoral College, which wildly overvalues votes from barely populated states at the expense of densely populated coastal/urban ones.
4
@Laume
She did know about that before she ran , right ?
2
6 out of these 7 are millionaires.
The 6th has signed corporate book deals, like most of the others, to get on the path to become a millionaire.
As far as I am concerned, people who elect millionaires forfeit all credibility when they later whine, as they will certainly do, that our government doesn't serve the needs of working people. Go ahead and vote for the rich. Just remember: as Smilin' Jack Smith used to say, "YOU asked for it."
https://emcphd.wordpress.com
4
I'd like to see how the top 4 stack up against a Mitt Romney/ Nikki Haley ticket.
1
@Midwest Josh While I agree that is a most formidable ticket, it is fantasy elections, 2020 version.
The Trump crowd and progressive crowd both HATE Romney.
1
Who knows, Warren may be in the lead or it’s equally possible that it’s one of the others. Your hyped headline really misses the point of your own poll. As of November, Iowa is a toss-up.
2
Warren is not likable.
And her socialist bent will alienate many many people.
5
As most articles on this topic from the times, it reads like a desperate plea for votes for this poor old man that can't catch a break. These runs of articles are nothing but a copy-paste of 2016 articles about Hillary Clinton. The times has never learned it's lesson from the last election cycle where Trump largely won not because of Russian Facebook propaganda, but a tsunami of articles telling boomers to vote for the incompetent establishment that hasn't gotten anything done that hasn't had to be fixed by their successors in decades.
3
Biden is the only candidate who can lead the country into the 1970s.
6
I can see the replay of 1972. The Democratic primary electorate was so repelled by Richard Nixon they nominated Saint George McGovern. He won one state, Massachusetts. Nixon was reelected. The difference in the aftermath is today we do not have any Republicans in Congress who will stand up to Trump. Very bad news indeed.
4
Did the poll ask about any of the other candidates with strong resumes who are campaigning actively in Iowa? Bullock? Bennet? Sestak? I read that there is an Iowa poll that has Bullock at 5%
The "Biden fade" is the same story the press botches every year: at the start of the polling, well-liked candidates with broad name recognition have impressive numbers.
As the campaign proceeds, and other candidates, previously unknown, become better known in the initial primary states, their numbers inevitably go up at the expense of the "front runners" ie people well known nationally before the campaign.
3
I would support Bernie Sanders in the Iowa poll.
Elizabeth Warren is my close second choice. There is nobody else in the Democratic field that I would vote for in either the primary or the general election.
6
@Richard From Massachusetts
"There is nobody else in the Democratic field that I would vote for"
Mr. Trump thanks you for your support.
7
@Richard From Massachusetts
Then your no vote is a vote for Trump. This doesn't make sense. Given the last three years of Trump drstruction, you're going to cut your nose to spite your face? Besides, none of their plans will see the light of day in a Republican Senate and even a narrow democratic majority. This attitude elected Trump.
6
These figures dramatically illustrate the current, significant split in the Democratic Party between the progressive wing represented Warren and Sanders with 41 percent and the centrist, establishment wing of Buttigieg and Biden with 35 percent. The biggest challenge for the eventual Democratic nominee will be to unite the party by picking a running from the other wing. This something Hillary Clinton failed to do that was a major factor in her under performing with progressives that cost her the election. A united Democratic Party will be essential to get the massive turnout required not just to defeat Trump, but to retake the Senate.
1
As indicated by elected leaders being wealthy entrepreneurs and/or with direct investment ties to other big businesses, the U.S. political party situation is (like here in Canada) fast becoming what I term as a corpocracy.
I view corpocratic rule as that in which the two established conservative and neo-liberal parties more or less alternate in governance while habitually kowtowing to the interests of the very wealthy but especially big business’s crippling threats (whether implied or explicit) of a loss of jobs, capital investment and/or economic stability. Also, corporate representatives writing bills for governing representatives to vote for and have implemented, often enough word for word. This of course fails to mention, amongst other things, the corporate-welfare-cheque subsidies doled out annually to already very profitable corporations and the forgiveness of huge loan debts owed to taxpayers. Also, almost all of our information is still produced and/or shared with us by concentrated corporate-owned media.
This corpocratic political reality may be why so many low-income citizens perceive futility in voting at all, let alone waiting in long lineups to do so.
4
I think it is good that Warren finally released some details about how she proposes to fund Medicare for All. Now Democrats can have a substantive debate about how to provide access to health care for all Americans and how to pay for it. All other Democratic candidates who have also been evading this issue, need to be clear about their approach as well (not necessarily every detail). But, as noted, any Democrat elected as President must work with a broad spectrum of views and possibly a Republican Senate.
1
Bernie's my pick. He's a real leader. Look at how he's brought issues like free college tuition, minimum $15 per hour wage for workers, Medicare for All into the mainstream. He's got the political and government experience necessary to pass bills and bring real change. Biden seems like a "safe choice", so did Hillary, but like Hillary, he's the wrong choice. We have to make the right choice, and I believe Bernie is the right or maybe better said, the correct choice.
11
@biglovingmama I'm with you. But read the comments: these people mostly want a "moderate" like Biden. So even if Trump loses, big deal, another four years of bad Democratic policies, no real change, and then another Republican in 2024. Any progressive change is impossible with the current leadership of the Democratic Party, so we're stuck with either a GOP lunatic or another four years of neo-liberal worship of corporations. Why vote at all?
1
Because more Trump would be a catastrophic if not apocalyptic setback: that’s why vote.
1
A cautionary comment regarding Mayor Pete (who I like). A few decades ago the University of Notre Dame (South Bend, Ind) took a real gamble and hired a high school football coach (Gerry Faust) as their head coach. Elevating a high school coach to one of the top college coach positions in the country was considered questionable at best. How did it turn out? It was dismal. Gerry Faust was a good guy and everyone wanted him to succeed (to prove that the prevailing notion about what it takes to be a successful college head coach was shortsighted). But it turned out that that the job qualification levels were two different things. Could this be the case with Mayor Pete?
7
@jack I think that even the least qualified democrat would be an OK president if he/she listened to their advisors. Since Mayor Pete has many admirable qualities what is there to lose? I would like a Pete Bernie ticket, God love those two fine fellows....
2
@ Jack
Talk about comparing apples & oranges. Your comparison is even worse; completely irrelevant.
3
Medicare for All would be an instant raise for most people who have health insurance through their job. Right now employees on average pay $150-$175/month for single coverage or $500-$600/month for families through paycheck deductions. While these deductions are pre-tax, M4A would mean a lot more in take home pay especially for families. This is a game changer for lower paid workers as most companies charge all workers the same amount for health insurance.
9
I am very much for Bernie, but I will vote for Warren as my backup choice.
I personally admire both Buttigieg and Biden, but I think they represent the same kind of corporate co-option of the Democratic Party, and their true constituency is the professional and managerial class, not the working class. I don't know if I would vote for either of them.
15
@Ken
I am of the so-called "professional class" and will vote for Sanders or Warren. We are, after all, a community, and cannot survive as a country with such a large percentage of the population having fallen so far behind. I do not want to succeed at the expense of others. That's called parasitism. Too much class divide spells sure catastrophe for us as a nation.
1
The last Iowa primary Bernie came in second and pretended he was first, what will he do this time?
Why is Iowa the first state, it is almost all white. It doesn't have a primary. Caucuses are known to suppress votes, so why start with a process that doesn't exemplify the Democratic party's commitment to getting everyone their right to vote? I suggest Colorado, or New Mexico, and then South Carolina or Missouri.
10
"The survey is full of alarming signs for Mr. Biden"
I wonder where the more moderate, traditional Democrats and independents will feel they can go if someone like Warren or Sanders is the Democrat nominee and more extreme politics are presented ....
Democrats lost the rust belt the last time, despite presenting a more traditional Clinton ....
Uncertain times.
5
What about Voltaire? I don’t get it.
@Si Seulement Voltaire It would be sweetly ironic if Trump were impeached for the Ukraine quid pro quo when it appears Biden won't even be his nemesis.
Come on Karma, do your magic dance!
1
@Si Seulement Voltaire:
The surreal fact that nearly half of American citizens actually voted for the Cretin-in-Chief now staining the once noble reputation of the White House does not bode well for the 2020 election: his "base" has remained blindly enthralled by his buffoonish antics, and show no comprehension of the surrealism that characterizes All Things Trump.
Beginning with the Obama presidency, wherein half my my country vowed to make him a "one term President", **PURELY** on the basis of the pigment of his skin, all that was once noble about the United States has been subsumed by a reeking toxicity that may never be cleansed.
As a child in elementary school, my classmates and I recited a pertinent pledge at the beginning of every school day, which was in part, "...United We Stand, Divided We fall."
That simple yet profound admonition seems to have long ago evaporated from my fellow citizens' consciousness . . .
Barring a sudden stroke of Enlightenment, like ancient Rome, the United States will collapse under its own self-imposed political toxicity.
As the Buffoon-in-Chief is apt to utter:
"Sad. Bigly sad."
Indeed.
2
When (if) Elizabeth Warren is elected president, she will have some political capital to spend. Her Medicare for All bill may pass the house, but will almost certainly be rejected by the senate. What is Plan B?
4
@Richard Chisholm:
Your crystal ball may be due for an "out of order" tag.
Given the large amount of time yet for any and all sorts of unpleasant surprises, there's zero certainty that Warren will be elected. As horrific the possibility is, The Buffoon-in-Chief now staining the White House may well be re-elected; fully half of our citizenry, if not more, have swallowed deeply of the Trump Kool-Aid, utterly ignorant of the toxicity and consequences.
Denial -- strong it is.
@Richard Chisholm Negotiation and compromise.
Next is to use the bully pulpit. Make a case for the healthcare bill to represent a call for open discussion and contrast that with Republican obstructionism (labeling it accordingly and frequently). Any Senator who chooses the latter can be painted as unrepresentative (frequently), impacting their election prospects. Elevating public will as a counterbalancing force is how it can succeed.
Not word one about the biggest underlying issue for any good policy to move forward.
The reason Warren and Sanders are popular is that they are adamantly opposed to systemic corruption. The very corruption that will thwart the policies and laws that Americans want.
I'm waiting for any courageous big news outlet to have the candidates address systemic corruption and what it means for getting policy done. Systemic corruption is the root of why Trump is president. Seems ironic but it is the root of anti-establishment sentiment on the left and the right, which is also seeping into the middle.
15
@trebor What systemic corruption are you talking about? Give examples or you comment is meaningless.
1
President Trump is the frontrunner and can beat all of the Democratic presidential candidates. They are all too far to the left especially Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. They all want to give away free things like college education and healthcare which will cost the taxpayers more than they are willing to pay. Ms. Warren's Medicare for all will be exorbitant but sounds great on paper. The middle class will bear the burden in taxes and will flee her campaign. She is going down a slippery slope.
President Trump is the likely winner and once the debates begin he will outshine the Democratic presidential winner at every debate. He is excellent at this and will come out on top. He did it in the 2016 race and he can do it again.
12
KMW, it’s good you cannot vote in the primary and that your state will most likely overwhelmingly vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is.
3
Just try telling this to all those protesters at the Nationals game. You’ve got a pretty short memory.
2
Actually he did not do that well when debating Hillary. There was perhaps one debate where he looked decent, but I would ease up on the “Trump will shine” enthusiasm. Regardless of what your political views are, I would not want to debate Ms. Warren. She is sharp as a knife and she will cut Mr. Trump more than once. Don’t be so assuming based on a bunch of bravado. It takes serious intelligence to win in a debate.
3
And so, even though Biden did nothing wrong, Trump has succeeded in defeating the one candidate who could win against him by putting him in the news and just repeating his name over and over again in relation to something Trump actually did wrong.
16
False choice, so early in the process. I am watching Gov. Bullock, the only governor left in the race and the only democrat elected by impressive margins in a Republican state, particularly as Biden is fading. He is moderate, sensible, and can beat Trump in the swing states.
8
Still wishing for a Bernie Presidency. I’ll vote for anyone running against trump.Bernie is the next FDR.
12
I would agree with you except to add that he will be even better than FDR.
1
Lord, please don't give me another 2016 choice between Trump and a woman I don't want in the presidency. Nothing against women, mind, but I genuinely fear Liz Warren, the Woman With a Plan. For Everything. Here we are, currently running a trillion-a-year defecit, and it's freebies for everyone, don't worry about paying for it: there's a plan for that, too.
Yes, I'm a senior, and thus a Biden supporter. I think the office of the presidency requires someone with wisdom and experience, both of which usually come with age. The last thing we need (IMHO) is yet another learning-on-the-job trainee. If Trump hasn't convninced you of that, nothing will.
10
@OldPadre. Why ? Do you think Biden is wise ?
1
“Nothing against women, but I’d rather vote for an old white man.”
2
Warren has earned the top position through brilliant hard work with a fearless, under control temperament. She is the right person for right now. I wish her the best.
Biden is the Bob Dole of this election - -great guy, great American, but too old, and no thanks.
12
@Paul Shindler Lizzie has never had legislation passed.
Here is a problem - the states that have the most say in who the candidate will be because they weed out people who do not do well are Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. These small states are not representative of the electorate writ large. By the time any voice gets to many western states, for example, its a done deal. My opinion on who the candidate is meaningless....
7
Agree. I actually support all the progressive ideas but appreciate that that does not win this election. Buttigieg is our best bet and as you listen to him, he is outstanding.
10
I’m dismayed that the poll ignores trump’s so-called tax reform bill (that he constantly and proudly touts so brazenly) when it should be called out big time for what it is ... the most massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy in US history! It’s already precipitated unbridled deficit spending and national debt going through the roof. But the consequences for the middle class including hardened red-neck trump supporters have yet to really take hold. By 2027 those earning annually $40,000-50,000 collectively will pay a total of $5.3 trillion MORE in taxes. While those earning more than a million annually will collectively pay a total of $5.7 trillion LESS in taxes. These are numbers certified by both the CB and the Joint Committee on Taxation. This is so outrageous that people should literally be up in arms.
13
@John Townsend
The top 1% of taxpayers pay 40% of all federal income taxes. The top 10% of taxpayers pay 70% of all federal income taxes. Get real and ignore the socialist talking points of Bernie and Lizzy W.
1
If nominated, Warren will lose the election.
22
@Don Juan
Have to agree. Hope she gets a good cabinet position.
2
Reading the comments here, the Democratic voters seem to be suffering from an illusion that they have a choice in the General elections. Vote for whoever you think will make the best nominee, in the primaries. Come General, vote for whoever gets nominated against Trump. If you do, we will beat Trump handily. If you don’t, be prepared to suffer through another four years of Trump. It’s as simple as that. Stop the handwringing about Warren or Biden or whoever is your favorite Democrat to hate, and get ready to vote. If we stick to this plan, this election is already over and we will win.
18
I just don’t see any of these potential candidates beating Trump .
Again, like 2016 how bad of a candidate do you have to be to lose to Trump?
Now .fast forward to 2020 , again ,how bad of a candidate do you have to be to lose to an impeached Trump?
The only way Trump loses is if he starts a war, economy gets ugly.
Impeachment know longer has the teeth it use to have.
8
@Independent voter I agree. Folks should stop looking at the election as voting for who they personally think is best for themselves--and instead see the bigger picture and plan their vote from the perspective of who has the best chance to win the election for their party. But Democrats seem to have a problem thinking in such a more common-sense, strategic and far-reaching way. I applaud anybody who likes and stands faithfully by a candidate they like. But if that candidate will probably rob your party of the election, don't you care about that helping cinch a win for the other party's candidate you don't want to be elected?
1
said it before and I'll say it again...what a ridiculous system where at this part of the process, the opinion of a candidate by someone living in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Ames, etc. means significantly more than mine as a citizen of North Carolina. Same could be said for someone living in Missouri, Idaho, Vermont, etc.....
7
Keep it up Liz!
Government run departments don't have to be as bad as American (?) run corporations. Not to mention their repub corporate lackies in Washington.
2
I think this is hard to predict this far out.
2
Hillary lost the "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a mere 55,000 votes. She did so not only because she failed to turn out the Obama base of blacks and young people, but also because she moved too far left for many moderate Democrats and independents, offering what they regarded as pie-in-the-sky instead of pie-on-the-table. In effect, she failed to connect with their real economic concerns.
By contrast, the Democrats flipped 40 GOP seats in 2018 by focusing precisely on those pocketbook issues—jobs, income gap, healthcare and Social Security.
Now we’ve come full circle, and the Democrats are once again offering pie-in-the-sky—grandiose schemes of the Twitter Left, promising free this and free that. Some 6 million Obama voters turned to Trump because they had lost faith in the Democratic Party. What are Democrats offering to lure them back?
Warren is impressive, but she has little support among black Americans, and little among non-college whites in the battleground states where the Electoral College will be decided.
She supports wildly unpopular ideas: 1) free healthcare for illegal immigrants, 2) decriminalizing illegal entry into the U.S. and 3) abolishing private health insurance. This is part of a pattern of thumbing her nose at moderate voters, not only by over-promising, but by occasional dismissive remarks. She can’t win. https://tinyurl.com/y2d6qqaz
Bernie and Biden are done—too old. Buttigieg is looking better all the time.
10
I completely agree. None of the top tier candidates can beat Trump unless they can capture moderate votes in the swing states. Although my favorite candidate is Pete, I don't think America is ready for a gay president... at least the America of the swing states. Either way, Warren and Sanders have no chance against Trump. Too far left.
2
I surely hope you are at least African American, judging by how well you seem to know their voting behavior. Even if so, you’re still speaking in terms of monolithic behavior, which is too imprecise to consider.
1
Buttigieg is an opportunist center rightist. He is already the darling of Wall Street.
He went to Afghanistan voluntarily. An unjust and stupid war that we got into because of our myopia and greed for their natural resources only. A person who volunteers for such a war is not progressive but a resume padding opportunist.
There are plenty of Harvard grads I know who would run circles around him in intellectual achievement and linguistic ability, so that is hardly a selling point!
1
Buttigieg has some appealing attributes as a candidate, but how foolish it would be for the Democrats to take the wild gamble of nominating a gay man to be their choice in one of the most important elections in history. Do they really believe homophobia is dead and gone? News flash --- it isn't. Probably especially in the swing states that are going to be crucial to winning.
11
@Joe Langford Yes, they do think that. Because unfortunately, and although it would be wonderful and shouldn't matter if someone who's gay runs for and wins the election, many elitist far-left Democrats are clueless when it comes to strategically presenting and electing successfully one of their own candidates.
1
@Joe Langford
"Do they really believe homophobia is dead and gone?"
Does anyone believe racism is dead and gone? Yet Barack Obama won the presidency, twice. This included the swing states, plus Indiana, NC, and Iowa.
3
Interesting that if you look at the age spread, Buttegieg seems to have the broadest appeal across all age ranges.
7
@Jon Alexander Bernie Sanders also has supporters across many ages. In 2016, Bernie won the Democratic caucus in Minnesota. The Sanders delegates were all ages. There are many Bernie supporters over middle age. We are 60 and are big supporters.
1
Time for the pair of geriatrics to drop out. Bernie and Uncle Joe are not going to be elected by the American public.
8
“Biden fades”. This screams bias. It’s one poll. There will a differing poll tomorrow. Oh, well, it’s all about selling subscriptions.
Warren cannot win the center of the country. Period. But, Biden can. And, he will undo the damage inflicted since 2016. I imagine him walking into the Oval Office, pulling a red Radio Flyer wagon filled with Trump’s executive orders, and undoing each one, as his first order of business, on January 21.
Biden-Klobuchar 2020
6
After Iowa there will be 4 or 5 candidates left in the race. Anyone can see that Biden, Pete and Klobuchar - the moderates- have
40% of the vote and that Bernie and Warren have 40% of the vote. That is in Iowa- an almost all white state.
Q. What do Pete, Liz, Amy and Bernie have in common?
A. They all have ZMS- ZERO MINORITY SUPPORT.
Once the race goes Down South- Biden will pull away.
5
Many racial minorities support Sanders and Warren. Mainstream news is suggestive, not fact.
2
Oh that darned DNC!
Failing to declare Bernie the winner outright without all the rigamarole of caucuses and primaries and debates.
It's a conspiracy I tell ya.
4
Democracy is in deep recession. It’s no miracle that Senator Warren is ahead. As the poll found, Ms. Warren enjoys “broad appeal”. “Capitalism with rules” is what all Americans want.
The Meritocratic Trojan Horse on Americans in the 1970s brought catastrophic destruction -in the form of Neoliberalism- as Trojan Horses have historically. The 1980s saw the aggressive adventurism of the corporate raider. Michael Milken, the bond trader did time and was fined over $600M for insider trading; according to the Times, he’s back at it.
Hedge fund trader, Leon Cooperman just launched a five page letter attacking Senator Warren for challenging vulture capitalism with a system of laws and regulations. Clearly the Senator wants to destroy the fine and successful system of democracy for the few special meritocrats. The nerve!
4
This will sound ignorant, but why is Iowa the deciding factor of who runs for president?
11
Arghhh....I read this data as saying the top four candidates are essentially tied. That’s what you use margin of error for... why report it if you’re going to ignore it to make a headline? The only difference that might be significant is Warren vs Biden. But Warren is not different vs other top two.
3
Warren proposed, today, a plan for healthcare. Cost? $20.5 TRILLION. That’s TRILLIONS, folks! That’s why she can’t win. It’s one thing to have aspirational goals and another to be out of your wind. Democrats, should they be stupid enough to nominate her or the heart attack prone 78 year old Sanders, might just allow the defiler-in-chief to sneak in a second time and THEN we’ll be FOREVER lost and have “healthcare for none”.
6
Do you know how much will be spent over the same period of time if the system remains the same? It may be insightful for you to know.
2
If Warren is the nominee we lose, that’s it.
12
Oh too bad for old Joe Biden.
Maybe he can become Hunter's partner? Oh, right, he's already an invisible one.
4
When is the Iowa caucus? How much time is left? How accurate have such polls been at similar points in time? Dear New York Times writers, please show some empathy for readers and answer such questions proactively so we can use the information in its appropriate context. Thank you.
1
"The New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research Institute survey of 1,435 registered voters in Iowa and 439 likely caucus-goers was conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 30."
By reading the comments one would believe 1400 Iowans are the pulse of the nation.
4
So um.....
The "most electable" chart gives Warren better numbers yet puts Biden at the top?
Accidental? or Deliberate?
NYT readers want to know
12
“Warren Leads Tight Iowa Race as Biden Fades, Poll Finds”
In previous polls Warren was at about 19% and is now at 22%. Buttigieg was around 5% and now 18%. Hmm, what do you think happened? To quote Yang’s pin here, “Math.”
This headline while factually correct is incredibly misleading. Just pandering to the peanut gallery.
Separately, NYT publishing all these polls as absolute truth and treating the election as a game is quite disappointing. Just a repeat of what NYT did for Hillary, and we know how that went.
Just imagine..unbiased news about each candidate with no poll numbers. But here I am, reading what I get.
13
So idiotic, and such a business and fun for the media, certainly not politics of any sort, to feature those political gladiators for the full year before the election year. Why are wasting so much time on them ...
And on IA too, what people there think or do is of very little consequence for USA except that the show starts there, I mean the real entertainment, like wrestling, not something of real value.
7
Factoring in voters’ second choices, which can play a key role in the complex caucus process, Ms. Warren had the broadest appeal: She is the first or second preference of 47 percent of Iowa Democrats, with two-thirds of Sanders supporters naming her as their backup choice.
************
Dear DNC - are you paying attention?
4
Hmm, Donald better start coming up with some new Pocahontas slurs. Polarizing the American Indian population? "Whaddaya, didn't we wipe all of them out?? Get Jared on this, now!!"
3
I would donate a kidney to have a system similar to the Brits. Around 12 weeks of elections and there it is! And no confidence votes! Why do we spend three years campaigning for something that entails wasting 3 of four years campaigning. Iowa and NH should have been moved to the same date as NV and SC, and they should all be primaries. Caucuses discriminate against working people and the mobility challenged, not to mention people with children or family members that can not be left alone. And if Warren wins the nomination, we can't just swipe left to end the living hell that will ensure when Trump is re-elected and the GOP takes over 60 seats in the Senate.
11
I think if there's one single lesson everyone should remember is that in 2016, NO ONE ever thought Trump would beat Clinton, much less be elected president.
Realizing that the unexpected has and can occur again, it's well over a year before the presidential election. I have come to terms that ANYTHING is possible and there are no "for sure" or "for certain" winners - period.
That being said - go Pete Buttigieg and kick some butt!!
16
@Marge Keller
We will need to win some over to win and Pete with his lifestyle, I’m sorry to say, isn’t the one who could do it.
5
@Marge Keller
Great, Marge.
Mayor Pete is my candidate too!
@rebecca1048
There're some 30% of the population who may not vote for a gay/lesbian person to be president.
But when they realize it's not a choice, many of them may change their attitude. They were born that way. They can choose to be abstinent & live like monk or nun. It's unjust to demand that of a person. If they choose to be abstinent, that's commendable, but the society can't demand that.
Criticizing some one for being gay is no different from saying that a woman's place is in the kitchen, or expecting a black man to be only a janitor. Being gay is no different from being born female or black.
There's some evidence that homosexuality is higher in whites than in other races. And most people, regardless of their race, would like to be white (I'm not white) with sharp features.
I agree wholeheartedly with Warren about changing the electoral process and most issues, but we need someone who can win and that is not going to happen until she embraces private pay options for medical and outlines a more realistic plan for paying for all of these services that she has proposed. Of course, she will never win over the Trump proponents, but she at least needs to try and reach the moderates or she hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell!
11
Everyone thinks Warren will take us to the left. What? Like Obama did? It's the presidency. Not a dictatorship. Any president must work with the Congress to pass laws. Stop being so scared. We've already been lurched back 50 years in the last election results. We have some room to move forward!
610
@Eleanor Kilroy
Elizabeth Warren would be a disastrous nominee and an automatic Trump re-election. Her appeal to swing voters is far worse than Hillary Clinton's.
30
@Eleanor Kilroy
You are absolutely right. The only president in my memory of 74 years who tried to be a dictator is the incumbent. That should be part of Warren's message: when you have a would be dictator like the incumbent, look what happens. She should make it clear as you point out that she's prepared to compromise. That's the only way to move forward and I think the electorate would welcome that.
45
@Eleanor Kilroy
She's very smart, the thing is, bills aren't laws. It's the laws we need. Ti change in order to have a more equal society.
4
Her lead may fade because of the M4A price tag in new taxes. ...
3
Vote for you think will make the best president. Do NOT vote for who you think other people will vote for!!! That's a recipe for disaster.
6
I can't help but think all the negative Warren comments and the she's not electable articles are coming straight from Moscow. They're terrified of Warren just like they were of Hillary.
12
@steve123474
Yep it's the Russians. Itwas the Russian army on the borders of Penn., Mich., and Wisc. that prevented Hillary from campaigning in those states.
4
The GOP has been pushing Warren hard, hoping to pivot to attacking her from the right ( Socialist ) and from the Left ( Pocahontas ) come the general election. Mayor Pete, Bernie, Tulsi, and Andrew Yang are their other darlings
They tried this with Obama in 2008 and it backfired
They tried it in 2016 with Bernie and if not for Comey, it too would have failed
Will it work this time ? I don't know, but I wouldn't be looking to the Times or cable TV for an unbiased take this cycle
5
Warren thinks that she projects passion and wisdom.
She does not.
She projects skittishness and condescension.
And yet she will probably still beat Slow Uncle Joe and Crazy Uncle Bernie.
And then lose Trump in every swing state that matters.
Go, Sen. Warren, go!
8
Every election year, we go through the same thing, with polls not just assessing preferences, but shaping them, especially when given such prominence as this one is by the media. This is just a single poll, and Biden is still pretty close to the top, but the NYTimes declares "as Biden fades." Which suggests that Biden's time has come and gone. This is a rather ridiculous assessment, given that we have not had a single primary, and yet it will do doubt affect the next poll, and so on, down the line.
5
Billionaire Leon Cooperman just release a long letter disputing Senator Warren’s call for capitalism with rules. Cooperman feels the system is just fine. For the South Bronx native, becoming overnight billionaire manufacturing nothing and having settled an insider trading SEC charge, the system is just fine, why change it, he says. Senator Warren will kill the stock market he says. Insider traders want to keep the stock market healthy, even as the Fed is pumping billions into the repo market to prevent a meltdown on par with 2008. Still think centrism works? If so, for whom, other than hedge founders like Leon Cooperman. Not if you’re a single parent with two jobs and are barely making it.
8
Victory has just been handed to Trump again because the Democratic party is its own worst enemy. May as well trot Hillary out for another run.
8
With a plus or minus margin of error of 4.7 points for this poll, is this news really very helpful at all?
Just vote for a Democrat, no matter who it turns out to be, to end this circus.
11
A Warren/Buttigieg ticket would cover the bases.
Too many articles on Biden show his mental faculties are deteriorating. Black voters take note! Trump is a danger to the United States and the world (ask our allies!) Warren's plans show her to be as fiscally responsible as Nixon was. The country is listing to the right; Warren can right the ship of state. Her time is now. The country needs her smarts, courage, and energy.
6
Ah, let's remember that Iowa is a state that no Democrat will win in the general election on their best day, so who cares. Now, Pennsylvania is a state that a Democrat must win to get to the White House. Biden is currently leading there by 12%. What does that tell you about Democratic contenders?
7
@Dooglas
Obama won Iowa ... twice.
1
And that is the sound of 4 more years.
6
This has become a no brainer. Whoever drops out first between Warren and Sanders, the other one will siphon his or her votes because the Sanders/Warren coalition is highly liberal/progressive. So buh bye Pete and Joe! Time is not on your side. It is though, on the side of Liz or Bern.
#Sanders/Warren 2020!
8
Aside from being the first and second, why should the
Iowa and New Hampshire be so important ? With populations
of only 3.3 and 1.3 million respectfully, that are upwards of
90% WHITE to boot, surely they are not representative of the
reality of the country.
BIDEN should not panic about his situation there and concentrate on other states, much larger and that reflect racial reality in the USA.
4
The 2020 Democratic primaries will one day be seen (by future analysts and historians) as a veiled attempt by the wealthy ruling class, who controls the party's establishment, to neutralize and stop Bernie Sanders' agenda and candidacy from gaining traction by muddling the (political) waters with lies and deception.
Every single candidate in the field, except Bernie Sanders, is what's come to be known as a "corporate Democrat," and that includes Elizabeth Warren, who by-the-way has received campaign contributions from quite a large number of billionaires and millionaires.
One (red-alert) sign pointing to the fact that the establishment and their mouthpieces, including almost the entire corporate media, are very nervous about Bernie's candidacy, agenda, and most importantly, left wing populist movement, is the ongoing news brownout/blackout against him. People who have been paying attention would notice that this is just a continuation of what happened in 2016.
I'm dumbfounded to read comments from people saying that Bernie's supporters would automatically shift their support to Warren if he drops out. That's antithetical to everything most of his supporters believe in. Establishment Democrats assume Bernie's supporters would all of the sudden be fine with voting for a Neoliberal Corporate Democrat like Warren? That's not going to happen.
Mark my words: the next president of the United States is going to be either Bernie or Trump. That's it.
11
@Luis Mendoza
The only person that is "nervous" about Bernie's candidacy is his cardiologist. Every else is just laughing or shaking their head in dismay at the arrogance of this doomed and divisive vanity project.
3
Bernie Sanders will never be President. His ideas are too far left, he is too old, and has no appeal to swing state voters in sufficient numbers to beat Trump.
2
I'm a liberal/moderate who thinks that Mayor Pete has the best campaign record to date. He has raised the needed money and set up large well-run organizations in all the early states. He has not stumbled in any of his debates. He's smart, personable, and pretty experienced for someone his age. If voters could elect a six-time bankrupt, adulterer from New York, with no government experience, I think voters could go for a brilliant, gay, nice guy from Indiana.
5
I am a Pete supporter but fear that his appeal will not be enough to sway swing state voters. I went to one of his rallies recently in Washington, DC. He was, as expected, excellent. But I did not see as many black faces as I had hoped. An indication that he needs more African-American support.
@John Bence No, they won't. That's because, unfortunately, there are many more voters in the inland part of our large country who liked voting for that bankrupt, adulterous President, than there are who would for the the brilliant, nice gay man. It might not be right, but it's reality. The Democratic Party does not like to look a reality, however that's the dimension inside of which this upcoming Presidential election is constrained to take place.
so the majority of Iowa Democrats want a candidate who is "more moderate than most Dems," but at the same time "promises fundamental systematic change to American society"?
Do they not see how contradictory this is?
Democrats haven't really changed much, have they? They want the blandest, most milquetoast candidate, due to mortal fear that he or she might (gasp) actually offend someone with his or her stances, but they also want someone with big, transformational goals. This simply does not compute.
Democrats: take your cue from the election of the last two presidents: they were both elected largely because they promised bold change and were unequivocal in their stance. Granted, results varied, but the lesson should be clear: voters have rejected the "safe" candidate in our past two non-incumbent presidential elections. Choosing the safe candidate in 2020 is going to lead to more of the same. Ask President Hillary Clinton or President John Kerry how the "moderate, electable" route turned out.
9
I’m worn out from” the woe as me” reaction of the middle of the road Dems. I’m a 72-year-old and I’d vote for Sanders or Warren in a minute. That said I’d vote for Santa Claus if he was running against DJT. I have a college age grandson and he totally supports Bernie Sanders and his policies, as do many of the students at his school. I think the American people want a new approach to politics and policies. They’re tired of being controlled by large corporations and the money that funds their candidates. When I hear that the two most progressive candidates have raised the most money from small donations, I can’t help it feel that Americans want change. I think that’s why a number of voters throughout the country voted both for Obama and then for Trump. Unfortunately they were sold a bill of goods by the crook that presently occupies the WH. That said, the most important thing is to vote and to vote against the corrupt politicians that have taken over Washington and our democracy.
10
@Lany
I'm a Trump supporter and even I would vote for Santa Claus over DJT.
Santa would shower us all with free gifts, just like Biden, Warren and Sanders promise to do.
The difference is that Santa can deliver because he has magical powers. Biden, Warren, and Sanders most certainly do not.
2
get someone with sense, itelligence and logic in. Spend a year working on policy that will actually make a difference, and as bold as this is leave the "taxing the rich ideas" alone for a bit.
I know many many wealthy Trump voters who want no part of him going forward, but will not vote D if the tax stamps are already in the mail. Let that be for now- sounds bad, I know, but need some way to say "thanks, for not voting for Trump again; we appreciate it and will not attack your bank accounts right away with larger than life untested programs.
3
All of the top two tiers would make good presidents. There's really no point in slicing and dicing their policies. But who is best positioned to beat Trump? Let's get practical.
6
I realize that we are still barely into the caucuses. PLEASE, dear voters, remember that our NUMBER ONE goal should be to get Donald Trump OUT of office.
11
I get this awful sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach when I review this poll. Not a one of them can defeat Trump with the economy humming along as it is. Sanders could have beaten Trump last time around, as poll after poll showed (but polls couldn't reveal what Wikileaks could, that the DNC simply wouldn't permit him to be the candidate), but I have my decided doubt this time. Hopefully some other Dems, true statesmen and stateswomen who have crossover appeal, will enter the race before it's too late.
4
Speaking of Deja Vu. I've seen this show before, in 1972. Ed Muskie, a solid but not exhilarating politician, was the odds on favorite for the nomination. His problem? He wasn't radical enough to satisfy the left wing of the party. It was as if that fringe was convinced that Nixon hatred (of which there was a lot) would be enough to propel any democratic nominee into the White House. So, Muskie was shunted aside and voila! George McGovern was anointed. The result was a shellacking for the ages.
4
@James R. Filyaw Nixon was riding high in 1972. Remember his meetings in Beijing (opening in China) and Russia (detente!) and the thunderous applause he received from Congress when he had returned from those trips? He had ended the draft, taking much of the steam out of the anti-war movement. Nixon was a popular figure that year, with support from both moderate and conservative branches of the Republican party. Trump's appeal to a 35% "base" is not comparable.
1
@Edward Agreed, but my point was that there was a considerable segment of the democratic party who thought their party's nomination was tantamount to election. It wasn't true then; it isn't true now. I just hope we don't have to learn that lesson again.
1
I am curious about the age break down for candidate support. I think the strongest candidate is too young to appeal to boomers, which is going to create a repeat of the 2016 election where we have a democrat who can’t beat Voldemort because younger voters won’t turn up to vote for Warren.
1
Pete Buttigieg has the understanding of a young transformational candidate, combined with the practical approach to governing that is making him popular with the over-65 crowd, who seem ready to abandon Biden for him.
Warren can certainly lead as well. But diminishing Buttigieg to a "he'll be ready in 2028" argument is denying what only he can do: change the course of this nation for the next 50 years, while aggregating the votes of the older generation who will actually show up at the polls to kick Trump out.
I have two staunch Republican parents who are continually singling Pete out as "a really smart guy." That's more compliment than I've heard them pay any Democrat in my 49 years on the plant. They're ready to vote for Pete.
9
Warren is from Oklahoma. Trump is from New York City.
3
@WeHadAllBetterPayAttentionNow And how is Warren doing in Oklahoma. For that matter, how is Trump doing in NY?
1
The Times, in their survey study for HRC, left out her nemesis and fundamental threat: Tulsi Gabbard.
3
Who’s Tulsi?
1
Trump and his trolls have done their job.
8
i like a Warren/Buttigieg ticket.
13
How about Buttigieg/Warren?
when discussing firsts for these candidates, you forgot to mention that Bernie would be the first Jewish president.
11
@Michael
They never mention it. Politics trumps ethnicity, and Bernie's just too progressive for the mainstream media, this paper included.
1
I wonder if Trump has sent some henchmen over to Harvard yet???
2
Where is Tulsi Gabbard?
1
Hope never to hear from her again. Wherever she is, let her stay there. GOP is full of her type if you miss her.
1
@Blunt You are going to hear a lot more from Tulsi. She has moved up to 5th in national polling.
What Republican is truly against these endless wars in the Middle East and North Africa?
I will vote for any Democrat even if they run a lizard against our possibly criminal King "Colorado" Trump.
10
I've seen a "Warren moment" before. I grew up in the UK of the 1940s when a very left government with an agenda much like Warren's ousted a tired conservative government of fat old white guys. The end result was an economic disaster which took the country 30 years to recover from. Best to remember Rousseau; "all men are in favour of liberty, freedom and equality, but not at the expense of peace, food and justice". Given the choice between societal upheaval and another 4 years of Trump I think the electorate will choose the latter.
4
@mitchell
So the U.K. reduced crony capitalism within government agencies, adequately enforced its laws, and that was an economic disaster? I don’t think so. It appears that you’re not aware of Warren’s agenda and are focused too much on debate answers.
3
Biden is a poor re-run of the past. Time for new leadership. But thanks for playing.
10
3 cheers for Elizabeth Warren. She has the zeal, enthusiasm that neither Biden nor any of the younger candidates seem to have. ALSO goes to show that as a pol. sci. professor of mine at NYU once said, there are old fogies and young fogies. De Gaulle, who returned to power as head of the newly created Fifth Republic when he was in his late sixties, and settled the long standing Algerian problem which none of his predecessors could resolve, PM France and Guy Mollet r just 2 examples,before the end of his "septennat,"always said that old age was an "epave(a shipwreck)!" but fortunately none of the candidates of either party has reached that point. Biden always struck me as someone who was in politics mainly for the money, and public service, recognition came second or third.EW has told a few fibs along the road of life, but no one's
2
Clinton fatigue helped Dems lose in 2016. Biden fatigue will do the same thing. Time for new possibilities.
8
Biden will be out before the voting starts. He’s dropping like a rock, in large part to his poor performances. He reminds me of HRC’s “It’s my turn’. That won’t cut it. Voters want answers, not history.
6
I am a Bernie supporter but I will not SIT OUT regardless of who the nominee is. Biden, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg ,anyone of them is a far better choice for America !! Democrats, please do not do this again. Your vote is crucial.
21
We need a ticket that looks like America. Buttegieg and Harris would win in a landslide.
2
@J. I disagree, simply bc the polls seem to be concluding that Harris doesnt cut it for most. I think she (is) comes off too bossy and intellectual because of her prosecutory background. To many, I think she is Hilz again...
1
@J.
Harris is way behind in her own state of California, no chance, she is falling like a leaf.
4
@J. Harris is a disaster. As San Fran DA she refused to go after a cop killer. Even Diane Feinstein called her out for it. It would make for a campaign ending ad.
3
So Trump's dirty tricks will win--they neutralized Biden and put two people (Sanders and Warren) who cannot win on top. Trump will never be impeached in the Senate and the precedent will have been created: do anything you can, lie any way you want, obfuscate and cheat and you will defeat principled people and put the latest dictator willing to do any means available to assume power. I fear for the United States electoral process. We need a new, strong, untainted candidate right away!
6
The Republicans and the voters who are unconditionally supportive of Trump are indicative of an existential crisis that threatens our liberal democracy. Trump is most obviously unqualified and corrupt but all the evidence of this is being dismissed by his supporters. They fear his being replaced by some Democrat over his malfeasance in office. The fundamental consensus among all of our citizens that makes liberal democracy sustainable has been lost.
Unfortunately, two very sincere and thoughtful people, Warren and Sanders, are deeply entangled with this crisis. Their sincere proposals are divisive because they have not convinced enough people that what they suggest will address all of their concerns. In addition, they project inflexibility and intolerance of those who disagree by displaying an unwillingness to compromise and reconsider their proposals.
We need a Democrat who can prioritize addressing global warming in a productive way, inequities which are diminishing the authority of democratic policy making, promote efforts which increase prosperity, restore public services and institutions which enable social mobility while restoring the consensus of trust in our governance.
2
Warren’s “Medicare for All” may doom her candidacy... she may have strategized a tach left would peel off Sanders supporters in the primary & then move center in the general election... but primary voters question the cost of "a chicken in every pot" or question the value of a promised chicken that does not suit their diet… i.e. they want to keep what currently works for them. … Medicare realities not explored in the primary, will become full throated in the general election. 1) Medicare charges premiums, co pays & obligates enrollee to buy secondary insurance (Medigap currently provided by private companies) to pay the 20% of what Medicare doesn’t cover. 2) Medicare doesn’t cover any medications until a beneficiary spends an annual amount (donut hole). 3). Medicare bureaucrats can deny coverage even if drugs/procedures are FDA approved, or deemed by a physician to be the most appropriate treatment for their patient… Fortune magazine recently covered the Medicare denial of an FDA approved oral kidney medication that would ultimately drive the patient to seek medications that are only available as IV infusions at a much higher cost (Medicare covers those)…. Lastly, as far as the Canadian model of “free” healthcare for all… that just covers the basics… Wikipedia notes “30% of Canadians’ healthcare is paid for through the private sector” … oh and check out the wait times in Canada to schedule an MRI… sobering granularity on the grand idea that most voters might balk at
3
Biden I think is done for: his performances are poor, his connection, however exaggerated with Ukraine, is a weak element, and the fact that gay Mayor Pete is doing better is a sign that even a gay man is preferred to a straight normal Catholic married man. Biden deserved better but I guess he chose to run for president four years too late. Ending a public career as VP is not exactly bad. But finding someone to beat Trump is still a terrible problem for the Democrats.
5
Any of these fine Democrats would be a massive improvement over Trump or any member of the GOP for that matter.
15
I'm all for elections lasting 90 days. Period. Other civilized countries do this. You would think running for the Presidency in the USA is like electing a god.
12
@Reader In Wash, DC What on earth does my comment have to do with censorship?
@Nightwood Agreed. And it's not like the months and months of process made people think longer or deeper on the serious subject of who will lead this great nation. All that time and money and we ended up with a Trump???
3
@Nightwood
You apparantly want to limit campaigning and debate and reporting on it to 90 days.
This is way too much conclusion making about one poll in an extremely white state. I love the NYT and read it regularly online and in print, but this article borders on irresponsible. We have to dig for the margin error of almost 5 points which points to a convoluted cluster at the top. Iowa is in no way representative of what these candidates will face in states like SC, CA, MI, OH or other diverse states. Shame on the headline writer and journalist for putting out this piece based on a single poll.
7
Vote! Everybody Vote! Make a choice and vote!
8
What about the margin of error? It doesn't show up in any of the charts and it's not mentioned at all until paragraph 14, which reports a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. That would put Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg and Biden in roughly the same group, with no clear difference in the poll.
Why doesn't the Times include this essential information? Instead, we get lots of "analysis" of differences that aren't supported by the statistics.
(This happened a lot in the stories about Clinton and Trump, too.....)
7
Warren is leading? Trump and the Republicans could not be happier.
Warren thinks a school teacher in flyover country who responsibly worked his way through a state college and his dental hygentist wife who attended community college should pay more taxes. That way Warren can forgive the $150K or $200K student debt of someone who got a degree in creative writing or womens studies or queer theory or art history and spent a semester abroad in Barcelona.
That is Liz Warren's idea of justice and fairness. Lizzy says only the rich will pay more taxes. There are not enought rich people to tax for the amount of giveaways Lizzy is promsiing.
10
@Reader In Wash, DC
I agree that whatever salary level she is talking about as
"rich" we all know is what those of us probably making it (barely, and certainly with no retirement savings) will be good.
This is a plan to start now, for 2 generations ahead of this to use. She thinks telling us that she is wiping out college tuition and debt now is fair to my son who just finished paying of 100K in loans? Thats too hard a pill to swallow and will have to be taken by a couple generations from now, after she lets everyone go to college for free, and they feel bad about the poor jobs they end up with because the competitive field just quadrupled...It is a fairy tale, and frankly I do think Millenials will figure it out for themselves, but this is
not a time for a driverless car, free school dream...this is a time for a good, steady trucker to get our packages to us on time, get back to some degree of social homeostasis, and forget the big dreams for 4 more years.
3
The typical US citizen wants more of this corporate overlord government. They like being fodder for the wealthy. Their educated to be passive and subservient. They will get a choice between a corporate apologist and Trump. In that case a vote for Trump is warranted since a moderate will simply continue the status quo, while Trump will destroy the country and in so doing allow the brainwashed masses to wake from the cult stupor.
I expect Trump to win, because the people are willing slaves who know they don't deserve better.
3
I'm pulling for Sanders, but the fact is that a rotting tree stump would be a better POTUS than Trump.
13
Love seeing Yang on this list. There is a candidate to keep your eye on. A virtual unknown who has so far beat out such established or popular candidates such as Booker, O'Rourke, etc. He has some great momentum building - I would put my money on him.
7
No one knows what will happen, so many wasted words here.
Warren, IMO, is by far the best candidate and it looks like that will be reflected in the voting.
1
@Citizen
when She wins, if the Senate is still majority R, they will do more stonewalling of her even than their self proclaimed blockade of Obama.
This is going to get worse, either way, before it gets better.
We have seen dictators toppled by brave revolutionaries, only for the honeymoon to be over and 6 months later they are a country in ruins because no one really gets "there man". It is not going to be some dreamy smooth change if the Dems win-ugly hatefilled streets. A leader whose job may only be to "Gerald Ford" it, just have the office between a nightmare and what comes next.
1
I think conservative-leaning Americans who don't like President Trump are more likely to vote for a personable gay male candidate than a hard-edged female candidate. I think Mayor Buttigieg's chances are better than Senator Warren's.
I know this is unfair. Sexism continues to create a headwind, especially in cases like Senator Warren's, whose manner may remind some of their fourth-grade teacher who scolded her students for giggling during class.
What I don't understand is why Representative Gabbard hasn't made greater headway, because she's quite personable and offers refreshing policy proposals. Maybe the congressional bipartisan permanent-war consensus has more traction among Americans than I would like to think.
4
@Cyclist
Callig it as it is is fine. I'ver worked decades in private and non profit and government. Generally men like men leaders better. Women like men leaders even more than men do.
4
@Cyclist
there has long been a Dem suspicion that she is merely running as a spoiler-Russian plant.
She is very robotic, in my opinion, not the least bit personable. I have not met her, however.
1
She’s made a very impressive push for likeability this summer, hosting town halls nationwide. Her ears are on the ground which is how she caught up in the polls
We should do away with both the Electoral College and the whole presidential nomination circus. Have a national primary in September or October, with participants regardless of party, then run the top two against each other in November.
4
@PJ
OK, thanks Pollyanna. But down here on earth, we know that doing away with the EC requires a Constitutional amendment, and massive other changes to the law, none of which are likely to occur before Nov 2020. Focus!!
2
I am a lifelong democrat but do not think I can vote for any of these top 3. Perhaps I am person without a party that reflects my views.
1
@George
So you prefer Trump and vote for him?
4
I'm afraid of a redo of McGovern v Nixon if Warren wins the nomination. Please convince me otherwise .
8
@jo You are correct. But you might as well invoke Al Smith and Herbert Hoover for the know-it-all-know-nothing youngsters who are pushing the primaries.
2
Take this poll again, now that Liz has released her $20 billion dollar plan for free healthcare. I didn't think it was possible for Trump to win again but now I do.
6
I don’t understand this Bernie love. He’s had 25 years to if not pass then at least encourage his agenda. And did nothing. He just likes to hear himself screech.
9
Why have an opinion based upon a phenomenon you do not understand. Research him. He is the real deal.
I wonder if it is the same polls that had Hillary beating Trump by 20 points, why don't we wait till actual people actually go to the polling stations and pull actual levers.
4
It’s time to give Buttigieg truly serious consideration, just as the NYT finally seems to be doing.
9
Okay, in a sense this is still "early" - if there is such a thing in U.S. politics anymore. But it sounds to me like this may well mean a second term for Trump, and makes me wish I had left the country when I was young enough to do so.
1
Bernie's the best! He's experienced, smart and likable, and he's Mr. Integrity. His positions on health care, income inequality, access to higher education and many others are what we need. A Sanders administration would draw the best people into our government and recharge America's currently diminished soft power across the globe.
7
I would think that the Democratic Party elders would act to convince Mr. Biden to withdraw from the race to preserve his reputation. It's obvious in his campaign appearances (and the degree to which his own campaign shields him from exposure) that he is simply not up to the task of running for President, never mind being President. Moreover, his departure would clear the way for more accomplished new moderates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris and Booker. They don't share that unwanted "Restoration" appeal that defines the Biden campaign. I really don't think Democrats want a Restoration.
4
@Sam Agree. Also, if Joe withdrew, it would strengthen the impeachment process.
@Sam
So rarely has it been noted that he has tried, and failed this before.
@Laura
How?
Iowa is a beauty contest that quickly fades. Shame on the NYT for trying to stir drama.
3
Come on Dems! Please do not, AGAIN, put us moderate Republicans in a no-win choice when we cast our ballot. Warren will alienate the middle. Didn’t you learn anything last time?
250
@CS
Go find a Republican!’
86
@CS Yeah, hopefully we learned to not nominate someone with the fantasy that they'd pull in mythical "moderate Republicans." We're not going to nominate a conservative just to appease the minority of conservative voters who won't vote for him anyway.
134
@rebecca1048 Unfortunately yours is the attitude too many progressive Democrats have. Big tent party has strongest chance of taking both Presidency and both houses of Congress. We should be welcoming centrist Republicans who feel without a home..
43
as potentially the 1035th letter, I write this to communicate to Biden and his supporters:
Hunter Biden is a big problem. And Joe's explanations come across as lame (and Hunter: you need to look at yourself in a new mirror). I like Joe, but he has been mixed up with Delaware politics too long to know what clean looks like anymore.
PS and I hope that Elizabeth Warren can take advice on how to sound less preachy. That style did not help Obama.
6
Bernie, Joe and Elizabeth should put their heads together and figure out a winning strategy to insure defeat of Trump. That would be the smart, progressive, forward thinking thing to do. If Warren has the best shot, the other two need to come out in support of her early. They can hone her Medicare for All message and make some compromise palatable to voters...
1
Which of these Democrats would be your first choice in the Iowa caucuses?
My answer? Who ever stands the best chance of defeating Trump.
Honestly, I don't any of them do though. Which is a huge problem.
2
Ups and downs in the GDP, employment, inflation, trade deficits etc. are always in flux, and unless they not out of normal bounds the US can and will survive. What it cannot survive is the destruction of the democratic institutions, legal framework and Constitutional guardrail that have been the mainstay of the US prosperity and social order. Once destroyed or tampered with, as Trumps is deliberately doing for personal gains, the damage to the government and legal machinery that ensures judicious management of the US economy and preservation of social order is irreversible. The biggest criterion for selecting a Democratic candidate must be that he or she must be able defeat Trump, and the rest can be managed.
2
@PK2NYT
Biden, flaws and all, is the only one who can win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Minnesota. Otherwise, maybe Pete, but not Warren.
3
When are we going to put Iowa and New Hampshire at the end of the line. A caucus (Iowa) is not fair - it is who has stamina often physically difficult. Neither state is in any way representative of America. The excuse that it is "retail politics" is just that - an excuse. The Party has to have some guts and eliminated them as first in the nation. It skews everything. Yes Iowa gives a chance for an unknown to get into the race, but who says that is good?
3
The poll results should not be surprising I just wish she would offer a more realistic healthcare proposal ie one including a Public Option. The M4All plan leaves Dems wide open for GOP soundbites ie taking something of value rather than providing something of value. Let’s remember how many of those swing voters that previously voted for Obama that voted Trump in 2016, still baffling to me. Do those voters actually look at the details or are they simply led by the soundbites? I agree with EW on all of her proposed policies except this one and only because it will be used against her to greater affect than any of her other plans.
2
Once the Democratic nominee is established, we all need to COLLABORATE and support that candidate. Putting energy into having Democrats split apart into bitter factions is *exactly* what the right has been doing for decades, and not only at election time: the more the left has to contend with internal fighting, the less the focus on dissolving the right's power grab. Desperately fighting over crumbs, from that tiny slice of the whole pie - the right knows this weakens our collective strength.
2
I agree with everyone commenting on the general inanity of polling, but when it comes to a party "buckling to Mr. Buttigieg's calls for generational change" – I'm a millennial and I don't know a single fellow millennial who supports Pete Buttigieg. Perhaps he represents a push for generational change, but that push isn't coming from his own generation.
4
Agreed. I see support from a slim demographic (top-tier college graduates, professional managerial class warriors, and cosmopolitan gentrified or new-money neighborhood residents). He seems to evoke thoughts of a bright son or grandson, who people want to believe in (like Pres. Obama and Kennedy). My similar age and younger peers however either love him (they’re mostly either lgbtq or professional class straight edgers) or see him as singing sweet nothings, that ring a bit hollow in the post-Obama era where straight talk is desired over soothing (blinding) words (the pay check to paycheck crowd drowning in student loans and unable to afford a home typically falls in this camp). Interestingly though, this primary is offering an insightful glimpse into what the various factions in the Democratic coalition care about. Being an early millennial, with friends that span the generations, it’s an interesting position to find oneself in, as all members of this coalition have incredibly rich experience and wisdom that they seem to draw from in choosing to align with Democrats over Republicans. I hope we can all remain more curious about the lived experiences of our fellow citizens, rather than let the mainstream media split us up into artificial teams.
I’m proudly ridin’ with Biden. While I like other candidates as well, I think he’s the only one who can bring the country back together. Everyone likes Joe, red or blue. I read other candidates will simply drive the country further apart.
Grand promises are all well and good, I want someone who has accomplished what he set out to do.
5
As a libertarian, I desperately want to see Trump turned out of office, one way or another. Biden and Sanders are too old and too tired to be elected, and Warren's unaffordable economic policies will guarantee a Trump / Republican victory. Dems: please put up a sensible candidate who can win. It is not Biden, Sanders, or Warren.
5
Biden/ Buttigieg or Biden/ Klobuchar for the win - if you want swing state support.
Warren could be a stellar cabinet level secretary for any variety of departments.
Bernie just had a heart attack and he’s 78! He needs to let his supporters down easy and hang up his spurs. Seriously, we’re talking about laws of nature here.
8
"Ms. Warren had the broadest appeal"
No, she has been spending the most money in Iowa.
Warren is actually an extremely unappealing candidate - she shares Hillary Clinton's total lack of raw political talent.
What am I talking about? Look at AOC in front of a crowd, and then look at Warren in front of a crowd. AOC is like Bill Clinton - she smiles wonderfully, and feels everyone's pain. And Warren? Warren snarls, and waves her arms around over her head - she thinks that is how you work a crowd. She could not be more wrong.
9
AOC strikes me as an empty suit. Which unfortunately is what a lot of people fall for.
5
Why? I am a highly educated, wealthy individual with degrees including a PhD from Harvard. I ran a hugely successful business at the investment bank which mass produces Treasury secretaries including the current gas bag. I find AOC highly intelligent, articulate and politically astute. She is anything but an empty suit by the way.
2
@GC
I was referring only to her stagecraft ability.
Beyond that, she has demonstrated nothing. In addition to his on stage ability, Bill Clinton was also a brilliant man, so there can be no general comparison.
Evita might be a good match for AOC.
While I've read some comments unrelated to this article lauding President Carter and I agree he is a wonderful man, people forget he was a horrible President, elected in response to the horror that was Nixon and Watergate. Let us not make the same reactive mistake in electing Warren or Sanders. Buttigieg seems to be the most qualified leader.
4
Elizabeth Warren was my first choice initially. She's a great speaker and campaigner with progressive policies which made her a rising star. But her policies are too far left I am afraid to give moderates a viable choice. Biden's debate performances revealed an old man rambling with folksy stories losing track of the question. Bernie Sanders had a heart attack, Klobuchar and Harris have no traction at all.
Enter Pete Buttigieg. An amazing speaker with well thought out answers to complex questions. He emerges in a sea of ultra liberal aging candidates as the voice of progressive moderation. The distinction he makes over Medicare for all is not an upheaval of the system but a more palatable sensible approach to healthcare with a public option as a trial that evolves. Buttigieg in essence is the younger Joe Biden.
Strong on foreign policy, Buttigieg served in the Navy reserve counterterrorism in Afghanistan and speaks Arabic and Farsi. (8 languages in all!) His age at the election would be the same as France's Macron when he was elected.
Buttigieg is rising in polls because he is a brilliant choice. Openly gay, he is a diverse choice giving pause only to a dwindling group of homophobes.
I've noted that Buttigieg possesses that essential ingredient, leadership. A rare presence like an Obama that only comes along once in a while. His decency would be a real contrast to a Trump on a debate stage and a solid choice anyone could vote for.
9
@jeansch
I agree that he would like be unflinching on stage debate with Trump (who will by the way, allow his minions to do the dirty work of gay bashing), however there has been wind that Trump wont debate? why should he? he has his base and neednt risk the attacks. The reason I know Biden cant cut it is bc I think hes the only one The Donald is willing to debate. That really says it all. We dont need an old man squabble.
@jeansch I'm with you
1
I’m beginning to think Mayor Pete may end up being the nominee.
14
Everyone knows you can't trust the polls anymore. Given that the top four are within the margin of error, no one is fading just yet. The headline is nothing more than click-bate. Shameful.
That said, how nice to see Pete Buttigieg among the top four, especially in Iowa. Iowa may not be the East Coast, but given their enthusiasm for the brilliant Mayor Pete, Iowa minds are more serious and open than most places.
Looks like I'll be sending Mayor Pete another $100.
8
Amy Amy Amy! We MUST win the Midwest and Pa.! I too love Elizabeth, and would LOVE to see Bernie go mano-a-mano with Trump, but...Amy's what we need. Many people do NOT want to give up their private health insurance!
1
@Dusty Love
Amy has no staying power. She is shaky and obstinate in debates. She is angry bc Warren has the chunk of her votes she thought she would win. Pete is the better moderate than Amy. Amy will always seem local to me.
@Liz rynex I agree. Amy Klobochar is a great Senator but her voice quivers when she starts to get fired up. You just know she doesn't fair well in a general election. Pete Buttigieg is a great choice for a moderate and from the midwest he's killing it.
The main news of this story seems to be in the massive, somewhat disturbing disparity between what younger voters want and older voters' preference for Biden. It doesn't surprise me in the least, but hopefully it'll put an end to all of the talk about how Biden is the most electable and how "Twitter isn't real life."
Older voters actually voted for Trump, last time, and a lot of them will do it again. Catering to the 50-and-over crowd again is a foolish strategy.
2
As a Yang supporter, yay! Without accepting funding from corporate PACs, his message is getting through to lots of “small dollar donors,” like me.
It’s especially pleasing that he’s made it difficult for the NYT (and other mainstream media) to ignore his message.
If we want to continue with this “great American experiment,” then we have to work at it. To MAGA, I say MATH. Citizenship isn’t easy, but it’s worth it.
5
Expect declines after release of her MfA proposal
2
The most important number in this article (which is buried) is the error margin on the percentages presented in this article: that number is +/- 4.7 percent. That number should be shown below each graphic.
That means the top 4 candidates are indistinguishable, but are well separated from the bottom 3+ candidates. The only true rise in the polls is Buttigieg because before he was in the single digit and now he has 18%.
1
I am a Democrat but don't believe that my side is perfect. Biden is a Washington Beltway insider just like the Clintons and (now) the Trumps. They all benefit from the system. Yes, the Trump children are exploiting their father's position to make money in their real estate empire but let us call a spade a spade - why on Earth would companies around the world give massive paychecks to Hunter who had no special qualifications if they didn't believe that he could influence his father's and US policies in their favor? Or contribute to the Clinton Foundation if they weren't expecting Hillary to do them a favor as Secretary of State (the contribution to the Clinton Foundation fell to its lowest level in 2017 after Hillary lost the race). If the Democrats plan to portray Trump as corrupt during the run up to the general election, he will turn around and point to Hunter the same way he pointed to the combined failings of Bill (rape charges) and Hillary (highly paid speeches to Goldman Sachs) in 2016. The level of corruption may be lower with the Clintons and the Bidens but such nuances are lost during the the debates and the advt campaigns where it just becomes a s/he said he said.
1
White candidates are apparently popular in Iowa. Who knew?
1
My appeal to Bernie Voters. I hope and beg you to not stay home should Warren or Biden get the nomination. I love Bernie but if it is not him again this time, I will still go and vote and encourage people to vote. Look where it got us by staying home in 2016? I hope the all the other candidates will appeal to their supporters to vote regardless of who is in the ballot.
8
@ALN Did it ever occur to you that that's why you lost 2016 and gave the nomination to a pariah, by telling people to compromise?
People should vote their conscience, period. That's how the right person wins.
2
@Viv , go ahead and vote your conscience again and endure the next 4 years of this polarization and scandal. I am rooting for Bernie but if he does not get the nomination, I am not sitting home to let DJT win another 4 years. Sometimes you need to vote with your head and not with your heart specially at times like this.
2
@Viv
Trump couldn't have said it better himself. Next term's on you!
1
It’s time to wake up and smell the coffee. Biden is not the winning card.
Sanders has the charisma, and could beat Trump.
But the new world more likely belongs to Warren or Pete. Youngish or very young, and progressive, with a new perspective about how to live and how to govern.
As much as 2008 was a generational election, 2020 will be just as much another generational election. And so also future elections.
The baby boomers are heading towards retirement and steadily being outnumbered by new generations of voters who are more diverse and more progressive.
2020 will be the test to see which generational group carries more weight in a decisive election, amongst an increasingly divisive electorate.
10
@Andrew B Your comment has some merit. But to be fair to the other candidates in their 70's, Warren is 70 years old. I wouldn't necessarily call that youngish....
1
@Laura
I am not a Warren fan, but while she may be 70, she looks & acts 50. Age is not an issue for her, unlike Bernie, especially after his heart attack
2
Regarding comments here on Warren's Medicare for all: first, Medicare participants pay monthly premiums (mine is $503 mo.); and second, Medicare participants all carry PRIVATE INSURANCE (mine is BCBS for $181 mo. and UnitedHealthcare for $75).
In other words "it ain't free." For one to have total doctor and hospital coverage under Medicare means that one must carry PRIVATE INSURANCE policies and drug co-pays can run $4k to $5k a year for out-of-pocket. It seems that even Medicare for all would still involve carrying private insurance and mothing is free.
5
@JMM My parents have both transitioned to Medicare in the past year and explained that their premiums are deducted from their Social Security. Both also still working and carry their employer private insurance too. I think this folds into part C? My mom actually didn’t want to sign up for medicare because she has very good private insurance, but was told that she couldn’t delay any longer. As much as a I support cost efficient medical care and access for everyone, I think Medicare for all will have a hard time finding support in this country. We are simply not like Germany or a Scandinavian country, though their models are to envy if you don't mind the high tax and consider health a top priority.
It doesn’t. And tell them that a) when they signed up for Medicare, it became their primary insurance; b) if they’re using a HSA or HRA or Sec. 125 plan to which their employer contributes, they’re gonna get a nasty letter from the IRS about double-dipping.
1
Regarding Warren as a serious candidate and her call for student loan forgiveness...I could support this part of her platform only with modifications. There are many students who are graduating and have graduated with small amounts of debt due to how frugal they were in selecting State colleges, working part-time, attending community college.
2
People who complain about the schedule and system of primaries need to keep in mind that, for practical and economic reasons, all primaries, and most caucuses, are held on the same date for both parties. Thus, the DNC can't change the calendar by itself, but only in consultation with the GOP and the individual states. It's not as simple as a lot of people believe it is.
3
Wild card here. Due to the rocket scientists that decided to go ahead with impeachment (which Pelosi - a superb tactician - resisted until she was overwhelmed) the early states might get bizarre.
The House inquiry has to go for at least a couple of months - Pelosi has to avoid the appearance of a rush to judgement at all costs, and she knows it. They can't just open an inquiry, and then vote to impeach two weeks later.
Then it goes to the Senate. And by the rules of the Senate, Senators have to be present, in chambers, for the trial (they can't just show up on the last day for the vote.)
So during the course of the Senate hearings, six of the primary candidates - including two of the top three, Warren and Sanders - will have to be in DC instead of in Iowa, or NH, or SC, or NV. This is a big deal, especially in Iowa and NH, where people expect high-touch retail politics. They expect candidates to be there, on the ground in person.
Yes, McConnell could waive the rules, but the Democrats have asserted such one sided domination over the process where they have home field advantage, they should expect to be on the receiving end when this gets to the Senate.
McConnell has absolutely no motive to facilitate the Democratic primaries. And likely sleeps with a well worn copy of Machiavelli under his pillow.
Couple months from now many Democrats may be complaining very loudly about this. But should remember that it is one of the downstream effects of what they did yesterday.
4
I'm one of those young people who puts Yang into 4th ahead of all these other establishment candidates. He's offering a new and boldly futuristic vision for the country, which we desperately need in the face of automation, cybersecurity issues, climate change, and all aspects of our society affected by social media, like my peers and those younger. Please listen to the youth voices, we like progressive, and Yang is younger and sharper than the rest by miles.
9
@Dylan I'm a GenX'r and with you 100%. It is scary how little understanding people my age and older have of technology and its effect on the economy. Yang gets it and has my vote.
4
To those who don't believe Warren can win nationally: Did you believe Trump could?
10
I hate to say this but Warren cannot win. Her tone is too strident, and she will not attract any swing voters. And I say that a woman. sorry!
8
@Courtney: Yes, a strident tone (do they ever accuse men of that?) is sooo much worse than selling out the Constitution, breaking the law, betraying allies and kissing Putin’s boots. Just sayin’ ...
3
While I agree with your sentiment, I would vote for a fire hydrant if I thought it could beat trump, but unfortunately warren has the same chance as the fire hydrant in the states where it is necessary. That is , zero. Let’s not get stuck in our echo chamber again, we need a candidate that moves voters in those swing states.
2
Have had it with neo-libs and am now on the progressive bandwagon with Warren and Sanders.
6
@Cheryl R Leigh
In other words, you're just fine going down with the ship!
President Trump thanks you for your support.
Please take notice of who is driving the bandwagon, it’s trump and he is about to throw a brick on the gas and bail. We are being taken for fools. Warren cannot win. Bernie cannot win. Pete cannot win. Kamala cannot win. Unfortunately Biden is the only candidate who in theory could win, but if there is anything in his closet trump will find it, exploit it, and destroy him. In fact he already has. So, we need another choice, it is clear. Bloomberg 2020.
2
If either Warren or Bernie gets the nomination, I would be thrilled. I give the edge to Warren because she is brilliant and a woman. But Bernie is pure gold to me. I’m just a bit concerned his health could be an issue. Those two on the same ticket are unbeatable! And contrary to most editorial comments, I’m a senior citizen with plenty of friends who feel the same! Bernie or Warren or Bust. Bernie and Warren and it’s in the Bag!
2
Draft Brown.
3
Trumps smearing of Joe Biden with blatant falsehoods, just as he did with Hillary Clinton, worked it's magic. Trump wants Elizabeth Warren to be the pick. He will win in a landslide similar to Nixon/McGovern. It's so easy to manipulate people. Trump is a master.
5
@Displaced yankee He is not a master. He has people behind him who are the masters.
1
Everyone reading about a poll should always ask "Poll of who by whom?" This poll is described as "The Times/Siena survey of 439 Iowa Democratic caucusgoers"; a 439 sample size is tiny; who exactly was determined to be "a caucus goer" is nebulous at best if there has not yet been a caucus.
On another observation, is it just me, or maybe major news media ought not be reporting on their own polls?
2
Just elect Biden and win. This should be the goal. Warren and Sanders will not win in the general election. Haven't the Hillary crew learned anything?
PS: Half of these pipe dream policy proposals for wealth tax, medicare for all and college tuition forgiveness are just that.
8
Read Thomas Edsall's column from this morning. This is not good news.
1
Now imagine, that the rumours turn into reality and Hillary runs again. What will that do to the race?
I tell you. Trump is already several horse lengths ahead and with HRC, he'll be a shoe-in.
2
This Biden supporter will in no way move to Elizabeth Warren. Please remember that Iowa is not representative of the Democratic Party and certainly not the country at large.
141
@Jake
Well it’s clear then the country at large doesn’t know how to pour water (?) out of a boot with instructions on the heel, because the place is a mess with homeless, opioids, guns, medical bankruptcies, and not a soul able to sit with a sick child home from school!
24
@Jake
This Warren supporter will in no way move to Joe Biden. Remember, neither your opinion nor mine is representative of the Democratic Party or of the country at large.
31
@Jake In the general? So you’ll opt for DJT or sit out?
44
The best way to guarantee a Trump second terms? Nominate Warren or Sanders. They may be the darlings of the readers of these pages; however, their views and policy proposals will not capture the national electorate. If you want to make a statement on progressive bona fides, by all means nominate Warren or Sanders. If you want to win (and I view a second Trump term as an existential threat to the Republic), vote for Biden.
10
@DPM
Miami has such a large degree of income inequality and a small middle class. It’s a libertarian paradise. People in the Midwest think very differently about economic issues.
1
Problem is that most people don’t think let alone read. Trump won on one liners, lock her up, do nothing dems, emails. If we cannot remove trump via impeachment, which at this point would require mass protests to gain traction, we will have to find a popular moderate alternative. Bloomberg 2020.
The Democrats have to nominate someone who is: progressive enough to get out the young voters, but not so radical that it scares voters in the general election; and who knows the system well but can position themselves as an outsider; is likeable and relatable, and has never, in any way, had a public or private misstep; and who is not female, or black, or gay, since apparently Americans aren’t ready for anyone other than a white male more than once in a lifetime.
The Republicans are nominating someone who: can not articulate any sane, consistent agenda; who openly shows disgust and/or bias against women, people of color, people with disabilities, and poor people; who doesn’t seem comfortable during public functions, or talking with anyone other than his cronies; who states admiration and support for dictators who disdain the American way; and who lies almost daily and has publicly admitted to impeachable offenses.
What’s wrong with this picture?
4
@Frances: The American voters.
4
@Frances It's called apathy. Most Americans are apathetic.
The influence of just one state need not be underestimated. Iowa is important because the Democrat electorate there is paying far more attention than Americans in general. The country relies on Iowa to give the rest of us a head start on choosing a candidate.
In my 73 years on the planet a progressive candidate has never won a presidential election in this country. In my youth I have had the disappointment of voting for some. It’s simply not in the current DNA of the majority of those that vote. Be smart, the goal is to get Trump out of government ASAP. I still feel Biden’s experience gives him the best chance of beating Trump in 2020.
4
My top issue is campaign finance reform. We can't deal with any of the other issues, climate, health care, guns, immigration, opioids, etc. until we have more politicians who aren't bought and paid for by corporations and dark money. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is the only person to bring a challenge to Citizens United in the Supreme Court. That, and his progressive, but realistic positions are enough to convince me to support him. Too bad he hasn't gained traction, he would be a formidable candidate in the upper Midwest states the Dems have got to win.
2
@JA
So what would he do with a Republican Congress? They’re not going to compromise with any Democratic President. His plans on how to deal with this are unclear.
1
I really hope that the next debate is narrowed down to a maximum of six candidates. I’m tired of getting two minute answers to very important issues.
5
It frightens me that nearly half of Democrats favor a populist left wing candidate. If we swing from a populist right President to a populist left President, America is truly lost. These polar swings do nothing to unite a very divided America. Empires crumble from within and our decay has already started.
4
@James
What are Republicans in Congress going to do to unite the country? That should be your concern. They’ve obstructed the last two Democratic Presidents. Clinton caved and signed conservative legislation just so that he could say that he accomplished something.
No President is going to unite the whole country when half, or nearly half, of the country refuses to compromise and will cause chaos when it doesn’t get its way. This idea that someone can unite the country right now is, in the words of centrists, “pie in the sky.”
1
Can we just cut to the chase and get a Warren/Sanders 2020 ticket already?
1
Good poll numbers ... for Trump.
2
If Warren gets the nomination, the democrats will not hold the rust belt, will not hold the flyover states, and will not hold aging boomers. Prepare for four more years of grifting, corruption and treason with trump.
5
The exasperated, stuttering, fumbling Mr. Biden needs to go. Let us hope it happens expodentially.
4
Okay, if he takes St. Bernie with him.
1
I'll never forget the poll NYT released on North Carolina a little more than a week before the 2016 Presidential Election.
It said Hillary was up by 7 points.
5
The democrats could run a Muppet and I’d vote for it. Anybody but the supreme tangerine.
15
Biden intentionally threw Anita Hill under the bus and gave America Clarence Thomas to rule on the Supreme Court.
His shameful behaviour and his lack of a sincere and authentic apology to Ms Hill should not be rewarded in double digits.
On that one issue alone Biden should be further down in the polls.
8
I can’t help but wonder what the Kremlin is making of these polls in planning for 2020 for as we now know what we feel is not own own but what Putin and Facebook tells us to think.
3
And let us not forget . . . Hillary! I read, probably in this paper, she's 'considering' another run. You think I'm kidding but given the hubris I wouldn't be surprised.
2
Please, folks, Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat. He is the Independent Third Party candidate, as he was in 2016. That turned out really well.
Don't get me wrong, I admire and like Bernie, but I like accuracy even more.
4
@cl
And you would be a Republican?
Looks like 4 more years for Trump.
1
I intend to vote for Pete Buttigieg in the Democratic primary here in NY. His brain power, his authenticity, his calming demeanor, his respect for all voters, his ability to inspire. I challenge all voters (especially the Bernie or Bust ideological purists to listen to all of his longer interviews.
I will of course vote for whomever the Dem. candidate ends up being.
Two major concerns about Pete:
Mayor Pete has got to make the case to African-American voters that he is totally on their side. They are not connecting with him yet. If not, he can still do exceptionally well in Iowa and New Hampshire but will crash and burn in So. Carolina.
His being gay will be something that Trump will not use against him directly. He will have his surrogates do the dirty work for him. And it will be dirty. In the general, if Pete were the candidate, it will be enough to lose No. Carolina and Florida for sure. And possibly Arizona as well. And forget Georgia.
One major concern about Warren:
Elizabeth Warren, who I think is great, has got to sell her Medicare for All plan to the majority of Americans who are afraid of losing their employer health plan. This far she has not. This is critical.
If not, we can lose in Nov 2020.
3
@MICHAEL
What do you think is the probability of Medicare for all being implemented given how difficult it was to get the ACA, particularly given that we have a Republican Senate? If the Democrats controlled Congress, do you really think their constituents would allow them to abolish private health insurance? Let’s stop playing into the media narrative that this could happen. It’s just creating drama.
2
All fine candidates. Any would be better. Warren, Pete and Bernie would all wipe the floor in a debate with Trump. I’m glad Biden is in the race, he won’t win probably, but he raises the bar. Realistically, it will be Warren, idealistically, it will be Bernie. Next election it will be Pete whose still too green, but I’m glad he’s at the top. I’m fully behind Elizabeth.
2
The Democrat who can beat Trump is the one with the courage to admit that some of the things Trump has done weren’t totally wrong. He’s just not capable of, nor is he interested in, being a president for all Americans. The current Democratic candidates are showing that they are not really listening to or looking at what’s going on in America. The millions who fear Trump because they have already seen that he doesn’t care about them do not have anyone to turn to. But when that person shows up he or she will have millions of thankful voters.
2
At some point Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders will be the last two standing and they will have to debate each other. If Sanders loses the nomination ( to Warren) at least he won’t be able to blame the DNC establishment.
Trump was elected because people were fed up and wanted drastic change so in 2016 the choice was status quo OR take a chance on this guy who although sketchy was departing from the norm. Problem is departure from norm shouldn't include destruction of institutions, disbelief in science and destruction of planet and not relief for people that were "left out" just for top 1% and corporations. Warren or Sanders can deliver what was promised as long as the obstruction of Republicans doesn't sabotage the process. The people have to be heard otherwise things won't change without civil unrest if they continue this way. At some point people will have enough and take to the streets. Personally I think we should be in the streets to get Trump and not let Republicans continue this charade.
2
Any polls showing Biden slipping should be viewed with skepticism since we know he is on the radar of internet trolls and countries which are still meddling in our elections.
2
None of them even have a chance!
1
Right on. Warren has the demeanor and brains to be a great leader of our country.
3
@Jill, I can think of 20.5 trillion reasons why she's not.
1
Bernie aging like a fine wine
2
@eeeeee, He won't live long enough to enjoy it.
3
a few years of him is worth it, and i fully believe that whoever he picks as a VP will embody and work to implement everything he's been working his entire life for... also, the hardest part of his presidency will be just getting there. the campaign isn't about him, but all of us who get up and go to work each day, or who are strapped with inhumane debt or afraid to go to the doctor or switch jobs or go to school because of debt etc...
1
Hard work and big ideas appear to pay off. Good to see.
2
1. Iowa has way too much power over presidential elections.
2. The caucuses are in February, eons away.
3. People decide who they'll support mostly based on who others support, so merely printing that so-and-so is leading in the polls makes it more likely that they'll lead in the polls.
9
A lot will depend on who Sanders, eventually, throws his support behind. He will not be able to sustain himself through a vigorous campaign, much less four years in the White House, and four years after that to pull off his reforms. I doubt he will support Warren because of personal animus but who knows. It's all an academic sport at this time because many, many things will happen in the next six months. How would things change, for instance, if the Democrats are running against President Pence? Would that embolden the progressives to go full tilt? I think the wild card is Buttigieg who will become more and more attractive as a candidate as the months roll along. I'm so tired of Warren, Sanders, and Biden. Mayor Pete has the kind of innocence and intelligence the American people will clamor for after Trump is impeached just as they did Carter after Nixon/Ford.
2
Go Warren. Proves that many who were luke warm on HRC were not misogynistic but just wanted someone who was a reliably progressive Democrat with a consistent policy message.
5
Of the current four top tier candidates, look at the one that has had the most impressive rise from a crowded field into this rarified group: Pete Buttigieg. That says something about his validity and the feelings that the more people who hear him, the more they will like and support him.
One possible solution to the lack of black support for Buttigieg would be for him to choose Stacey Abrams as his running mate.
13
@John H A most excellent suggestion! Stacey Adams is not only very likeable, she knows her stuff.
5
Excellent commennt. Thank you
I don't know what the stats say about margin of error etc. However anyone with any experience with surveys of this type knows that there is really no difference in the numbers for the top four. There is so much error of many types with this kind of poll that you can only draw conclusions with huge differences.
2
“I’m really all for making going to college more affordable,” Mr. Nix said. “That is my biggest thing, because I want to go to college myself.”
Bravo! Education unlocks people’s potential and creates real long-term opportunity.
3
It's going to be Sanders. His supporters were many in the last race and they are still there waiting for redemption.
4
Can you say Trump 2020?
4
The two people of color at the bottom of the polls? This country is such a mess.
1
@Alx , I say the opposite.
Trump exposure of Biden's corruption in the Ukraine and his qid pro quo have sent him into retirement.
1
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html
People’s memories are short - but not that short . . .
1
Where’s the link to the actual poll and methodology? That used to be SOP in political reporting. Should always be available in an article.
1
Donald Trump has the gumption to declare his treacherous Ukraine call was ‘perfect’. He loudly repeated his ‘perfect call’ again & again over a dozen times. He has shown he is a Fighter. Joe Biden remained Dumb & Silent in the face of Trump’s public attacks on his honesty & integrity. Joe Biden cannot Fight to even defend his own character ! Clearly Joe Biden is a Dud - unfit to be a leader of men & Totally Unfit to lead the Free World in the Bitter Struggle against Bigotry, Nationalism & Fascism.
2
Free healthcare for illegal immigrants and busting union benefits ain't going to elect a Democrat... Just Sayin'...
4
Except for the fact the Dems support unions disproportionately more than Repubs. We pay far undocumented immigrants’ healthcare already. We do it through the most expensive way possible-the emergency room.
I’ve done union work for twenty years, and he is dead right about how union members will react to this. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not.
1
If Warren does become the candidate, the question will become how he will objectify and marginalize her. Somehow I think she’ll be better prepared for it than Hillary.
3
@Shawn Hill, She will be labelled as a socialist, which Hillary was not. She will fail.
2
These polls are pointless.
This is simply more evidence that the media will never give Senator Sanders unbiased coverage. He can’t even snag a mention in the article’s title despite placing second. It’s always Biden/Warren.
The media decided who they would favor before this race started. That will once again be this country’s downfall.
7
@Gabriela You are absolutely right! Sadly, this is why the media is universally despised. Media is already beginning to get it comeuppance. "Fake news" is now on everyone's tongue.
The media needs money to operate. For example the person screening this reply needs a job and a paycheck. Where does that money come from ? Corporations and the top 1%. Sanders is the last person they want to see elected.
"the poll found a substantial bloc concerned that anyone other than a heterosexual white man might struggle to defeat President Trump."
Those who would vote only for a straight white man are unlikely to vote against Mr. Trump anyway.
4
@Che Beauchard
Nonsense. Studies tell us a sizeable chunk of such voters went for Sanders in the 2016 primary. That 10%+ of his voters switch to Trump. Their motivations for the switch were entirely based on race and gender.
1
Don't know about you folks, but I'm just about sick and tired of reading about the Iowa caucuses and seeing the media frenzy of excruciating detailed analysis, most of which is baloney.
9
@Stanley Jones
Nope. I’m fascinated by it.
1
The country is beyond centrism, unity or appeals to reason. Destroy the Republicans by voting them out for office forever. This isn’t about who has a better health care plan. It’s a fight for our nation and the future of life on earth.
12
The big story is Mr. Buttigieg's surge in the polls, but you wouldn't know it from this story and headline. NY Times, you're at it again, putting your thumb on the scales!
8
Bye bye Joe just like in your 2 previous runs for prez
5
Clearly the takeaway from this is a progressive agenda must be embraced. Warren + Sanders +Buttigieg = vast majority of Dem voters.
This is long overdue - a decisive push-back against overly concentrated wealth & power, returning to basic democratic fairness. Strong agendas energize voters, and Biden is not offering that.
7
This country is split in half. This is not the time for extreme progress! Biden is an experienced leader that Republicans in Red States, who are fed up with trump destroying democracy, can hold their noses and vote for.
1
Buttigieg isn’t a progressive. Warren says she’s a capitalist.
"Like," "admire," and "respect" is one thing, which Bernie and Warren have in spades for refocusing political campaigns on people, corporate domination and corruption, and a better future for all.
However, winning the national election is another thing. Democrats must get as many swing states as possible. 42% of Americans identify as Independents (though they be registered in either party). And Never-Trumpers are up for grabs. The current off-the-rails, chaotic national situation calls for moderation, and Trump and the GOP don't have it.
But when it comes to moderate Democratic candidates, Biden is fading for lots of reasons. Most of all he is tired in every way. I get tired just looking at and listening to him, and I am 77. He should step aside.
The media can be faulted for giving so much attention to the horserace candidates, when at this stage, we should be getting to know the other candidates better.
From what I see, I think Klobuchar might be the dark horse. She wears well and expresses more common sense than many Democratic candidates. Too boring?
Wake up, Trump and the GOP have put this country way out in right field with their corruption, nasty behavior, and mounting failures at home and abroad. But lots of Americans won't vote for liberals for lots of reasons, such as a decades long smear campaign from the far right.
We don't need any more ideology; we need to common sense to bring us together & fix what the GOP broke from Reagan on to Trump.
4
Yeah, cause that worked out so well in 2016
@PB
Bernie had the independent vote last go around, so I really don’t understand why he or Elizabeth wouldn’t have it this time? I think you must be from the other side and know Trump can’t beat either Bernie or Elizabeth.
Warren needs to pare back her spending plans. And a big part of spending needs to be infrastructure and jobs, not all social spending. She needs to pick one big social spending priority and focus on that. Not proposing to fund every single item on the wish list. Even liberals realize that is unrealistic, and it makes her look foolish.
4
@Madeline Conant - Better education leads to better jobs.
3
Warren's 'plan' announced today is nuts. It is basically soak the rich, soak Wall Street, and soak employers. She is last on my list, and I dearly hope that we don't allow the fringe left to elect an academic to run against Trump.
She will lose. A lot of independents and moderates will simply stay home.
3
@dmckj
Sure, when 99% of the country is facing medical bankruptcy? I think most can see your ruse.
1
@rebecca1048
99%?! Clearly you have a progressive's facility with math.
3
False headline, false lead sentence, false article. This poll does not show Warren is leading in Iowa.
In fact it shows that she might be slightly behind Buttugieg; or slightly behind Sanders; or behind both; or she might be slightly ahead; and the probability of any one of those being the truth is no greater or lesser than any other one of them.
That is what the poll’s 4.7% margin of error (mentioned almost at the very bottom of the article) means.
The failure of almost all major media organizations to provide basic training to their reporters and editors on how to understand and report accurately on statistics is embarrassing and in the case of election-reporting it’s really harmful.
7
maybe its agism. Fine. But I dont want an old guy who just had a heart attack as the nominee. I think Bernie needs to exit, asap.
6
I honestly believe that Pete is the only candidate who can take on Trump in a debate (although I have my doubts Trump will even participate in general election debates). He keeps such a level head and I believe his comments will be so witty and subtle shade to Trump that Trump will not be able to deal with it at all. Buttigieg will be able to destroy him on a debate stage.
11
@Connie
'Subtle Shade' will go right over The Donald's manicured orange head (now turning an interesting but not distinguished shade of silver). And many of We the People are weary of witticisms. The Donald -- and the People -- need someone who is a direct and forthright speaker.
That person is Amy Klobuchar. Plus, she has a secret weapon -- a good sense of humor, something lacking in most of the candidates but definitely helpful, as it was to Obama.
1
As a former Trump voter, I would vote for Warren and Buttgieg in a heartbeat. I prefer Butgieg but Warren is better able to personalize herself to the average American. If Bernie is nominated and gets a heart issue again, that would not help. Trump does not have the intellectual depth to argue with Warren. Biden is boring and prone to mistakes.
3
Judging from my Iowa neighbors and friends, I'm pretty sure Buttigieg will come in 1st or 2nd in Iowa. People are tired of Bernie haranguing everyone all the time, and are afraid Trump will ridicule Warren to the point she couldn't win.
Buttigieg is the change he purports to be
8
What about Pelosi? She knows how to manage Trump, loves a good fight and would get under his skin skin like no other. And, she’s managed to hold the Progressive Dem’s and Moderates in tack.
2
@linda
Herding cats in the House as Speaker - and 4th in line to the presidency - is the sweet spot for Nancy Pelosi. She is more powerful that the president In many, many ways.
2
@linda
Yes, but it is crucial we keep her where she is. I'd nominate her for sainthood, she's saving us all.
2
@linda
I respect her skill as Speaker but, in the words of Joe Biden, "Come on, man!" Pelosi is 700 years old and can't string words into a coherent sentence in front of a camera
1
When you look closely at this, the ones who really vote, will decide Iowa, and the primaries. The article points out that young voters, may want Warren or Sanders, but a fair number of them don't vote. Meanwhile, Those, who do usually vote, are older voters and more than likely vote fro Biden.
Biden indeed has his faults, but he certainly can beat Trump in the rust belt. Biden comes from the same humble roots. He needs to attract those voters Clinton alienated by called them a "basket of deplorables". Biden can win the blue collar vote. He can also win the African American vote. He can also win the Latino vote. The vote he can't win are those who want free tuition, their student loans wiped out, all day pre-school starting at three years old, paid leave for parents for 12 weeks, and taxing single tax payers, and the 1% to pay fro it all.
What is lost here is simple. While I want a great society, while I want to not worry about health care. While I woudl be comfortable knowing my Social Security will be enough to survive on. What I want affordable housing, and the like. There are things which people want which can only be achieved by hard work.
I left college with loans, and I worked to pay them off. I worked, received grants and scholarships. My parents could not afford college; I did it on my own. In the late 1970s, this expected. You want college; you work for it. You want anything else in life; you work for it.
You do it with our own two hands, no by hand outs.
3
I don't believe any of these polls for a second. I have been a registered voter since 1969, living and voting in Ohio, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and North Carolina. Not once in these fifty years have I been polled.
Clearly, the "winners" are those whom the corporate media and the DNC have chosen as such, or at the very least, the "representative" sample of people surveyed has been selected in such a way as to reveal the desired results.
Just for the record, I am supporting Marianne Williamson. She often quotes FDR: the job of the president is moral leadership. And that is what she talks about and what she demonstrates. Everyone else is talking about plans and programs, which are a dime a dozen.
If these folks can't lift their rhetoric and get people excited, we're stuck with Trump until he dies, or with Pence at least until 2024.
Why can't the Democrats ever learn from their disasters?
3
@Christopher Ross
Marianne Williamson cannot win the primary, so it’s time to choose a candidate who can, and she needs to get out of the race.
2
@Christopher Ross
I've never heard the answer to this question. Are the polls all done by telephone? Does that mean only people with landlines get polled? I don't know anyone with a landline. Who are they?
1
Seriously disappointed at the shadow campaign to deprive Sanders of any positive coverage.
There is real enthusiasm for Bernie Sanders, who has started a political movement that stands apart from any other, and which the other campaigns (except for Biden) are obviously inspired by.
Unfortunately this piece manages to avoid any quotes from the numerous, enthusiastic Sanders supporters, yet manages to throw in negative jabs.
8
The Democratic nominee has not emerged yet. Maybe some of the current pack may end up as the vice presidential nominee but the top of the ticket is still out there somewhere. None of these folks are generating the kind of enthusiasm among voters that can overcome Trump’s command of the news cycle and his focused vision of an America that is right there in everyone’s rear view mirror. I’m very worried.
1
We must have different rear view mirrors because there is nothing about Trump that appeals to me. In fact, he is Lord Voldemort to me.
So the top three people on your chart are the best we can do? The problem is both Warren and Sanders are effectively or literally socialists. Buttigieg seems very grounded and practical, but there are two problems. First, his experience is limited to being the mayor of a small city. Second, and please understand this isn’t an issue for me, I do not believe this country will in 2020 elect a candidate who will bring to the WH a male partner. We are evolving, but it just won’t work in 2020.
3
Bet you said the same thing about Obama’s race in 2008 and look how that turned out. Pete’s not my #1 pick but I’ll be happy to vote for him if he’s the Dem nominee.
1
If we must pay attention to the Iowa caucuses, could Iowa caucus goers and caucus organizers please pre-emptively take into account the known shortcomings of the caucus format? Older and working and poor and brown people disproportionately don't participate in causes. The caucuses disproportionately favor some candidates: extremists, the young, celebrities. Finally, caucuses tend to bring out the not-best in us. For instance, a surprising proportion of our own 2016 caucus goers were shockingly misogynistic and very outspoken about it. I myself like Warren not because she has of late been behaving like a Sanders minion but rather because of her long and diverse record (her bankruptcy work, she was once a Republican) which Sanders purity progressives are now pillorying her for. I don't dislike Biden. He was pretty much on the right side of everything Obama did right and usually on the right side when Obama made a mistake. Biden has always suffered from a disconnect between his brain and his mouth. Both Bushes suffered from something similar, and we learned post-presidency that 43 has dyslexia. Buttigieg is wonderful though I had always imagined he would make an excellent president some ten years down the line after he has a bit more experience. After all, he is at present the mayor of a university town. Harris, Bennet, Klobuchar, Castro, Inslee (sadly now out), Bullock (now out too?), Booker: please give these folks a chance, and act in light of these caucus shortcomings.
3
What we should remember in Warren’s Medicare for All plan is simply this:
Compare the number being spent over the next ten years — $20.5 trillion, sounds big, right? — to the number representing the ways we currently pay for health care in the US, which is more like $50-$60 trillion.
So Warren’s plan is not “tax and spend liberal” — such a tired phrase from almost forty years ago, that was a lie to begin with, as massive Republican overspending and thieving from citizens’ pockets has proven, time and time again — but, in fact, a significant REDUCTION in medical care spending, one which gets rid of massive fraud and bureaucratic waste in the insurance for-profit and pharmaceutical for-profit industries.
That’s something real Republicans and Democrats should applaud, yes?
And they will, a year from now, at the polls, unless the media can obfuscate and confuse sufficiently to prevent such cost savings from being enacted. Which I’m sure the corporate-owned media, large and small, will.
Meanwhile, $800 billion from the military budget sounds woo-Halloween-scary, but in fact it’s a tiny drop in the bucket, given the size of our military budget now, and is also an excellent cost savings idea along the plan for our healthcare industry.
See Warren for whom she is: someone committed to fighting the ludicrous, criminal quantities of fraud and waste our unchecked oligarchies have accumulated for their private ends, fighting FOR the American people, and our Constitution.
3
I fear nether Warren nor Sanders can appeal to those moderates who will be crucial to win against Trump. Medicare for All, with its tax hikes, loss of familiar, employer-based coverage and a $20 trillion price tag, will be more than enough to scare lots of those critical voters off.
So with Biden dropping like a stone, I’m putting my money on Buttigieg and hoping he’ll pick Stacey Abrams as a running mate. Anybody who’s heard those two speak knows how smart, articulate, competent and pragmatic they both are—the kind of folks who inspire confidence, do their homework and think carefully before they act and have a track record of dedication to the public good. And on top of that neither of them brings even a hint of scandal to mix.
After the daily drama, corruption, divisiveness and pure chaos of the Trump presidency, we desperately need someone who not only exudes that aura of solid competence and integrity but who operates from that solid middle ground where we can feel safe and where maybe we can start to heal.
6
@Steel Magnolia I'm with you 100%. what a fantastic team.
2
@Steel Magnolia
It wasn’t all “moderates” who failed to show up for Clinton in 2016. Why do you suggest Abrams as VP? The people who like her will be lining up to vote against Trump in 2020, regardless of who is on the ticket.
1
@Steel Magnolia
Abrams has never won an election outside of her small majority black Atlanta district. She is even less qualified for national office than "mayor Pete". The social justice warrior left has lost the last shred of brain matter it ever had.
The identity politics politicians first need to win big elections: Congress or governor. Even AOC was a stretch, winning with only 6% of the electorate. That's not a mandate, but it is a frighteningly dreadful turnout in a democratic nation.
Andrew Yang is my choice. He will give a lot encouragements and inspirations to future young Americans. Race and skin color make no difference. Ability and talent are most important factors to become our leaders. America is a land of equal opportunities.
4
I don’t get how people don’t think Pete B sounds conceited and superficial. And that he used that tone on the debate stage talking to his competitors, particularly the two women: Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard as well as Beto. In an age where how we treat one another needs to matter more than anything, he showed he is unevolved in spirit and consciousness. He is one I will definitely not be voting for.
5
I’ll take any of them over the con man we are stuck with, but I love the vision and willingness to take on the big issues that Warren has shown.
3
I will support the Democratic nominee, regardless of who wins it. They are all so much better than Trump. It's very unlikely Bernie Sanders will win the nomination and I only fear that like last time, his followers will sit on their hands and whine and let Trump win. Democrats didn't like Al Gore or John Kerry enough either, what's wrong with them? Hw many more times will they lose?
1
@getGar
Had we whined louder we might not have had Trump!
An impeached Trump or a socialist. Interesting choice. Capitalist America may as well toss a coin November 2020, its fate is the same either way.
1
Warren's big heart and comprehensive brilliant plans to right all the Trump/GOP kleptocracy wrongs makes her right POTUS 2020. She’s a caring leader committed to democracy, decency, clean gov, rule of law. She'll beat Trump hands down & we'll breathe free.
2
I'm still with Sanders. I think he, more than any other Dem candidate, has the ability to pull away from Trump some of his voters who have grown unhappy with Trump's behavior, but who also still don't trust the 'establishment'. He also seems to have a fair amount of appeal across the entire US while other candidates' popularity (ie, fundraising) seems to be centered in the area each candidate is from, at least based on the interactive map of fundraising the NYT created a while back
158
@Chris
All that and more.
Agreed Chris.
Sanders has positioned himself in the front pack the whole primary. Winning more new voters in the 3rd quarter than any other candidate. New votes, at lesser donation amounts, yet easily raising the most funds amongst all the candidates.
The more voters here and see the mensch, the more his already massive base grows.
There is a good reason Bern holds the most Blue collar donors; they know he fights for them and always has. He's not one to fold or give away the store in negotiations.
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/09/sanders-vs-warren-who-has-more-working-class-donors/
25
@Chris
Sanders won me over with his speech against the war in Iraq. It showed that he was a man of principle that would not go along with the crowd. It also showed he had a lot of common sense.
He's still the same all these years later.
26
@Chris Sander lost me forever when he honeymooned in the Soviet Union. Apparently he learned a lot and brought back many of his ideas there.
Just as Sanders and Warren are fighting for the left wing of the party, so to are Buttigieg and Biden for the moderate wing. In the end, Iowans will sort this out and we will be left with their choices for who they think should be the standard barer for the left wing and the standard barer for the moderate wing.
If I were a betting person I would bet Warren and Buttigieg come out as the big winners in Iowa. All others will be playing catch up as they go into New Hampshire and Democrats first primary.
2
By reading the comments it seems most people in America will question people who wants to better the society but if their govt tells them to bomb a country or invade a country they don't think of money. Cut the defense dept. budget by half and we will have all the money.
7
STOP WITH THE RIDICULOUS POLLS.
POTUS elections are the real deal, yet still seem to be popularity contests with no sense of realism. That how we got Trump. Warren and Sanders sound better but are really no different . We don't need fantasy.
Michael Bennet, Amy Klobuchar and Buttgieg speak reality. But no one pays attention to them.
The media has a responsibility here to be like Cronkite, Murrow, Brinkley. Just the facts, not hyperbole, not polls. Bring back Charlie Rose to do one on one interviews. At least we would have some intelligent dialogue.
Oh I forgot, nobody wants intelligent dialogue. They just want reality TV. Which is how we got the knucklehead we have now.
12
@Viking East
What will Bennet, Klobuchar, or Buttigieg do with a Republican Senate? What have they ever done to decrease crony capitalism within government agencies, which does not require additional legislation? Have you even heard them discuss this issue during this campaign?
3
@BK
Well, Klobuchar has been dealing with a GOP senate for 12 years, with 100 bills to show for it. She was the only judiciary comm senator to even come close to steely eyed handing sex predator SCOTUS Brett Kavanaugh a taste of his own medicine...but with facts and Minnesota nice.
225
@Maggie
So you have no idea what the answers are to my questions. Who cares how many laws she has helped pass? Do you even know what they were and who they helped? Did she prevent Kavanaugh from becoming confirmed? This is just empty rhetoric coming from her campaign. You’re basically stating that she has had no more of an impact than most Democratic Senators. You have no idea what she would do to ensure better enforcement of existing laws. It’s scary that people form their support for candidates based on the questions they ask during Congressional hearings.
1
Bernie Sanders, steady comin' at ya!!!
We're coming for you, Donald!
8
Too early to tell anything. We'll see how all this changes when the race gets around to states with a less all-white population.
That's where the rubber will really meet the road.
4
@N. Smith,
Like South Carolina?
Now, does it really matter who wins the Democratic caucuses in Iowa? Sanders won there in 2016 and didn't even come close nationally. More to the point, Cruz won the Republican caucuses, with Trump a close second. Trump won the general election there easily. Iowa is not representative of anything important to Democrats. What is the point of hanging on the edge of polls about the Iowa Democratic caucuses and trying to determine something, anything, from the results?
8
@Dooglas
Ya, we realize you don’t need us to win, or that we aren’t figured in lot the Great CNN Electoral Wall, but it doesn’t mean we don’t know how to choose a candidate able to solve the homeless problem in Cali, or the climate change threatening Florida and the East Coast (I think we lead in wind energy!), or the healthcare bankrupting us all and the childcare problems plaguing us all. We’ve been jumping over the crazy hurdles the East Coast dreams up for quite some time. Maybe it’s time to listen to Iowa!
Bernie Sanders is to be valued as an idealist, not as a presidential prospect. By staying in the race at this point, he could play a helpful role in establishing the Democratic platform. Joe Biden has peaked as a politician. He is a senior cheer leader whom, despite his age, has added vigor to the Democratic side of the race. He has been best suited to the role as a vice president. We need strong leadership to move beyond the Trump era. A younger person of either gender should carry the torch. Perhaps Elizabeth Warren is that person.
2
As much as I love and respect the Times and other journalists, I wish that less press was dedicated to polls and more to where candidates differ on issues. Despite watching all of the debates, I still do not know where I stand on Medicare for All versus a public option because I feel that all I know is candidates' talking points and not facts. Nor can I differentiate between candidates' climate change plans or immigration plans. Perhaps this is my own failure to find and read these stories. If not, I believe that we should be focusing more on scrutinizing candidates' plans rather than polls which change frequently and may discount certain populations. Elections are not a game show.
6
@Mary Good comment. At best we do only get the talking points of each candidate. Newspapers could really contribute by getting off these horse race stories and paraphrases of candidates' policies, and delve into the current programs and describe how the candidates programs would differ. That would be information. The Times seems to not like all the lies put up on Facebook, etc. but it could do a lot better job itself of getting out facts and the truth.
1
@Mary
Agreed.
Politico has had a comprehensive outline of Democratic Party candidates positions that includes all those running, not just the silly so-called debate winners.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/
Polls, especially this early, are overrated.
I am confident that Warren and Sanders could defeat DJT handily, no worries there.
I do share a concern about the Medicare for All policy and favor a Medicare option that is less sweeping and destructive.
The Dems must focus on an additive healthcare message not one that takes things away- like existing plans that work.
Regardless of who gets the nomination the VP picks will be important in securing the WH in 2020.
3
Since "Mayor Pete" supports none of the issues most important to voters, especially those under 45, he will be a "one off" in Iowa and not much else. Since Joe Biden, as expected is fading, "Mayor Pete" will ultimately replace Biden as the establishments choice going forward and despite the medias hype of Klobuchar and Harris(who is fading fast)they are a non-issue to the vast majority of voters.The problem for Buttigieg, is other than Iowa, not much is happening in other primary polls to date.
I am curious to know, if ever, when the corporate establishment wing of the democratic party and its media cohorts are finally going to come to grips with the fact that despite the never ending barrage of Trump antics and the constant publicity it receives , ultimately,the voters are concerned about real issues and who are the candidates that will be committed to actually dealing with them not just telling people what they want to hear at that moment.
It is also clear that when it is all left standing, Sanders and Warren will be at the top and if only one of them was in the race, they would be walking away with it. Change is coming and the establishment is terrified of it.
4
@Deus Thus far, the polls and the enthusiasm about Mayor Pete are not showing what you say. In fact, his poll surge is led by younger voters.
1
@Jim Ward
Buttigieg is right up at the edge of being a moderatre Republican and religious conservative, at that.
One of Buttigieg's strong stands is to increase the Pentagon Inc. budget, if you can believe it.
Yeh, that's what this nation in $22 trillion debt needs - more military spending!
1
I'll say it again: We don't need free college tuition. That would only make a college degree the new high school diploma. Why should someone need a college degree to flip burgers or paint houses or do landscaping? It's "credential creep," and it is already making it hard for folks with a bachelors degree to get many entry-level jobs. My daughter is graduating from college soon and has already learned that she'll need a masters to get the job she'd been preparing for. Rather than making college free for all (including many who are not academically inclined), we need to pay a living wage for all work, separate healthcare from employment and protect workers' rights. One full-time job ought to pay enough to live on, whether the work in janitorial, teaching, or practicing law. College shouldn't be a requirement for a decent life.
13
A bachelor’s degree aside from engineering is not sufficient education for any profession. It’s a first step. Entry level jobs that place anyone in an administrative leadership role career path require any bachelor’s degree. Without generous taxpayer support, only the affluent can afford public higher education without difficult to repay loans.
3
@Casual Observer The real issue is students who overpay for their education. Not everyone has to go to a private school. If you can't pay for it, go to a community college. Next, so many students don't know how to study, don't have a good foundation, and some are plain old undisciplined and lazy. I'm not paying for that. Not everyone needs to go to college. In Texas half the students flunk out.
@ARNP College isn’t a requirement for a decent life. Have you ever heard of the trades? And please define living wage.
1
Trump's tactic at destroying Biden is working. He is unlikely to be removed from office and the match up between Warren and Trump is a tough one, IMO.
7
I don’t think Trump’s attacks on Biden have anything to do with his diminishing in recent polls. For most people it’s his hesitant and too moderate stand on issues. Biden is very bright and much, much more loyal to our country than Trump, however Warren can think several steps ahead of him when it comes to consequences of policy decisions, especially economic.
1
@Tim
Biden is destroying himself, without any help from Trump.
1
Biden's candidacy was collapsing long before Trump smeared Biden, Tim.
Warren is honest, knowledgeable, earnest, energetic and passionate.
Trump is a serial grifter, liar, scofflaw, tax-dodger and bankruptcy filer.
Such a difficult choice.
1
I like any Democrat. Any of them are a lot better than Trump whose level of corruption is horrifying. Doesn't anyone care?
9
The 1st time I heard Buttigeg,and read his in-depth programs @PeteforAmerica.com , I thought what a shame, he's up against household names. That he now is 3rd or 4th (depending on Polls) is certainly testimony that he understands the nuances of campaigning....just as he will know how to navigate through the morass left by the current resident in the WH.. .as shown when he states at every debate and interview that the important issue is the action on the day after Trump leaves, Taxes, Medicare, education, and any of the other buzz-words thrown out by the other candidates will be handled., what should be most important for all of us is his forward thinking, armed with an intellect and global vision is what will really make America Great..again.
7
Is there a link for the actual poll? The article says that younger voters tend toward Warren and Sanders. I’d like to check that out directly, because I bet it’s primarily Sanders and I don’t trust the NY Times editors to report honestly about Sanders.
6
Amy Klobuchar.
9
Why are comments limited to three in the app when all comments appear on the web site? Can you please answer this simple question?
1
Because this isn't a debating platform, it's a public comment platform. Leave your thoughts on the article and move on with your life. This isn't the place to have long discussions with strangers.
time for trump to dig up dirt on Warren and the others. oh, right, shes a socialist.
1
Interesting how the article headline makes hay off 1st, 3rd and 4th placement in polls. I wonder why No. 2 is rarely addressed or given real coverage....
2
Go Pete!
6
Hard-core socialist winning the primaries. Best way to lose the elections.
16
the media needs to say what the polls are showing. the people can clearly see that biden needs a doctor far more than he needs a vote. he is suffering from severe cognitive degeneration. his family needs to intervene and pull him out of the race to save him from further embarrassment.
4
Lol. You seem to see things invisible to the rest of us. Biden leads in national and most state polls. He may not lead in Iowa caucuses at this point in time, but these polls are fluid. It’s clear Biden is the candidate Republicans fear.
Let’s stop the personal—and insulting—attacks against Democratic candidates who may eventually face Trump. We know from the 2016 election that these memes stick.
Of course I don’t know whether you’re a Democrat or a Trump supporter. The latter seems more likely.
2
Interesting but too early to take results seriously, especially numbers being close among leaders. Reminder that Obama was far at the bottom of the pack at this point with Edwards, Clinton leading.
6
There were 2016 polls that showed Sanders beating Trump,
but the Establishment had coronated Hillary.
About nine percent of Obama voters voted for Trump,
after having voted for Obama, when the hope and change they wanted became lost jobs and foreclosures.
The time for real change is now.
The colossal and growing inequality, where the richest take in over 188 times the income of the bottom 90 percent, demands change. https://inequality.org/facts/income-inequality/
The times and the people demand the integrity, bold ideas, vision and courage of Bernie Sanders.
There are more ordinary people, than status quo protecting Establishment people, and Sanders will enthuse people to get out and vote for him, and the possibility of a more thriving future for themselves.
In the last debate, did you notice the emphasis Sanders placed on the value of work.
His policies of quality free/affordable childcare for all,
quality free early childhood education for all, quality k-12 education for all, tuition free continuing education, coupled with medicare for all would level the playing field, create more equal opportunity, and create a better educated, healthier and more thriving society.
I trust Sanders integrity, knowledge, choice of advisors and authenticity on foreign policy, more than I trust Warren on foreign policy where she is basic Establishment.
President Sanders 2020!
A Future To Believe In!
6
@Lucy Cooke
I will take either of these two over all others.
Warren may be the favorite candidate for the left but it also provides the opportunity for Trump to win the second term despite his ignominy because people will vote by holding their nose. Tax and spend will drive away voters in the middle and the government cannot spend its way out of all social ills. With 4+ Trillion in spending, what we got are- one of the worst infrastructures in the road, port, railway, airport, ever decreasing in the performance of our public education systems, out of control cost of Medicare and Medicaid, ever-expanding in entitlement spending, etc. When the government spends other people’s money carelessly and needlessly that is the time taxpayers have the responsibility to stop it.
4
I'm really tired of polls. That said, Bernie feels better to me than Warren and if Bernie chose Sherrod Brown as his VP, that's a winning ticket, I feel. A woman won the popular vote last time but look where that got us. Better to be realistic and vote for a man-until we lose the Electoral College, which would be a real game changer.
97
@CJ I am honestly curious. How do you think we are going to “lose” the Electoral College? It would require a constitutional amendment ratified by two-thirds of the states. It isn’t going to happen. More importantly, it shouldn’t happen. We are a nation made up of sovereign states. The purpose of the election is to select a leader of those combined states which was the intent from the beginning.
12
@CJ It is NEVER better, nor more realistic, to vote for a person based on their gender, skin pigment, religion, sexual identity, etc...
The better and more realistic thing to do is to vote for the candidate with the best platform and ideas like the rest of the civilized countries have been doing.
22
@CJ
Sherrod Brown has more sense than most in the Democratic residential field. He has said he wants to be in the Senate where the Democrats are still a minority. Yet so many senators are running for president. We will never get anywhere in this country while Mitch
McConnell is running the Senate. He is holding up bills submitted by the House just for the sheer spite of it.(Proudly calls himself the Grim Reaper because his desk is the place where bills go to die.)
We need more Democratic Senators to prevent disasters like every Trump appointment. McConnell and Trump are destroying our judicial system.
I take it you mean eliminate the Electoral College, not lose it it, because we've already done that.
7
A fairly accurate representation of the American voters.
It looks a bit more like Pete Buttigieg having an easier time attracting voters than Elizabeth Warren. If she hadn't been this far to the left, she could easily get the nomination and beat Donald Trump, or another Republican nominee, in the event he's replaced.
Though gay, and looks a little too young, his genuine gifts, including his wisdom, courage & indefatigability can surmount his real handicaps. Eventually he will attract the vast majority of black & Hispanic voters. His popularity among the senior voters was surprising; I thought they maybe less likely to vote for a gay president. Admittedly, I'm very old & also a supporter of Mayor Pete. However, if Warren had the policy positions of Mayor Pete, thinking that she would be better at beating Trump, with more energized women after Hillary Clinton's 2016 loss & with her debate skills & indefatigability, I would have voted for her.
5
This poll makes Iowa caucuses pretty much irrelevant.
3
I would hardly call Trump's direct hit on Joe Biden a "travail." The NY Times article ought to discuss the impact of Trump and Giuliani's attempt to damage Biden's candidacy. The Ukraine scandal led the Democrats down the path to Trump's impeachment.
4
Joe Biden might had been the best candidate going in, but he is just not the Biden of 2008. I strongly believe that Warren is right now the best candidate, and has always liked Klobuchar as a more moderate option. That in fact is my Democratic ticket.
2
Team Buttigieg!
4
I don't like any of them. Still, any one of them would be better than the horrible squatter in the White House today.
Warren is a woman, and given the hatred so many men feel for women, she would not be elected.
Sanders is too old.
Buttigieg is gay. Given the hatred so many men feel or feel they should feel for gay men, he would not be elected. (How would Trump trash him? What nickname would he select for him?)
Biden is too old and aging fast.
Best ticket? Probably Buttigieg and Swalwell.
2
For a better clue as to how things will play out over the long term, I suggest stripping away the personalities and specifics of each candidate and just look at their general positions and then do the math.
Specifically, Warren and Sanders are garnering 41% of support while Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar are collectively at 39%.
As things play out, it is clear that Warren's rise is somewhat equal to Sanders decline. The same can be said for a comparison of Buttigieg and Biden.
While personality certainly comes into play as well as voters' sense of relationship to a specific candidate, philosophical leanings I believe have a greater role here.
Sanders suffered a heart-attack that made some of his supporters consider what else to do with their vote, their say. Where else could their support go other than Warren.
The same can be said for Biden. Between unsettling gaffs and Hunter's Ukrainian issues, the candidate has suffered loss of support and Buttigieg has been the beneficiary of this shift. I include Klobuchar's numbers as she too runs as a midwest moderate and at 4%, once can easily imagine that her supporters might more likely cast support for the moderates in the race.
So essentially, Iowa is split between a more moderate platform and its candidates and a more progressive platform and its candidates.
The first round of primary challenges will center on progressive and moderates with the candidates in the best position to attract their voters to lean their way.
2
I am not impressed with this 'Medicare for All' mantra. This is a tactic, rather than reality. We are already buried with so much in debt and deficit. How would that even be better, with what some of the Democratic Candidates are offering the people?
With the 'Medicare for All', and free 'Education' icons shining brightly in the campaign, the Candidates are not making it clear, where the funding will come from? All the time, the talk is that the source of funding will be from taxes on the rich and wealthy. This is pure fantasy world thinking. What guarantee do we have if that source will stay alive in the future years. How do we know if our great economy of today, will remain the way it is, or even be better in the future? What is the guarantee?
For some unknown reason, some of the Democrats have a problem with private health insurance. We do not see them stressing on the value of both private - public participation. This is where they are wrong, and misleading. That leads to the argument that the Democrats are moving too far to the left. And, Mr. Trump is already gearing on an anti - Socialism banner. The Democrats should understand this. They should concentrate on reality, instead of offering ideas, and just to grab people's attention and their votes.
3
Not only do we have inequality between persons and households we have it between states, as New York just proposed $Billions in bike paths and my little community has none. I don’t have a sidewalk or a curb, a block away from the only K-3 school, and two blocks away from a community college.
True.
Blue states generate $$ (federal tax dollars) and use state and local tax policy to improve their living conditions (not perfectly, but they try), while red states lap up anti-tax, anti-government rhetoric while their senators find ways to divert the federal dollars generated primarily by blue states to red states (Military spending, Agricultural subsidies, Medicaid, etc.) while refusing to acknowledge what it is.
A woman, a Jewish man and a gay man all lead the straight white male who served as vice president to a black man and yet we still have to read NY Times pieces on how the Democratic Party is failing to be inclusive.
This is a pathology, not a party. And I no longer wish to participate in it.
10
What does that even mean?
The pathology of the GOP is on full display in the White House right now.
And in the persons of Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell.
@LuLu An admission of not understanding swiveling to a 'whatabout' re the Republican Party is less of a critique than one might imagine. And with more than a little sadness I find in it some of the rhetoric of that pathology I am dismayed at.
The Times should represent the poll's margin of error with error bars, at the very least, if they're not going to aggregate polling in a responsible way.
3
"But despite the historic diversity of the field, all the top candidates are white." And there it is. As always, the NY Times can't get through an article without it's commitment to identity politics showing through. For a news organization that claims to be committed to facts, you seem to ignore facts when they might challenge your toxic commitment to identity. Let me share a couple facts:
1) The Presidency is a single-incumbent position and the Democratic party can only nominate one person for the job. There is no way that all the desired identities will be represented in this individual.
2) If one of the four top candidates were black, that would be 25% of the group which would be DOUBLE the representation in the population.
3) To the extent that white people are over represented among the top candidates, well so are gay people. You would not expect to find a gay man among a sample size of four and yet, there's Buttigieg. So should you point out that gay people are over-represented as well? Of course not. But this just highlights how toxic this type of thinking is. Please stop.
3
An “incumbent,” is the person who already holds the political office, just so’s ya know. And the point is that for all the diversity of the field, it’s still tough to get to the top if you’re black. Not sure what part of that seems untrue to you.
Personally, I think the point’s basically right, but a bit skewed by the fact that Booker and Castro and Harris have turned out to be weak candidates. They’re just not on Obama’s level, is the thing.
@Robert
The term "single incumbent" is used in organizations to describe positions that are only held by one person at a time. And this accurately describes the Presidency. You might expect to see diversity of identities in the House of Representatives but you will never see it in the Presidency.
But your point ("It's still tough to get to the top if you're black") is entirely NOT supported by the facts in the article. There is one black candidate in the top seven of the poll. Again, this is greater than black representation in the population. There are facts that can legitimately support the challenges that black people face. This poll is not one of them.
Iowa is a strange state - one that gave us one of the most liberal senators in Alan Harkin and one of the most conservative senators in Charles Grassley.
My personal prediction is that the primary will be a big win for Bernie. The kids like him. He seems genuine. Warren seems like a Bernie-lite.
2
The poll confirms Pete Buttigieg’s steady and noble trajectory as the born leader and statesman that he is. He is remarkably and firmly versed on all issues, and evidences the decency and overarching integrity that he will use to restore America’s values and leadership in this troubled and diminished world. My husband and I have supported him from the beginning and will continue to do so enthusiastically.
5
Two big problems here:
Iowa, the State in question is likely going to vote for Trump
And
Biden is the candidate that can win the key swing states along the rust-belt, or have we forgotten that.
6
Honestly Iowa and New Hampshire should not be the states that set tone for the primaries. They are not representative of the diverse population in this country.
5
@Suresh
Ya, we’re the first to choose a black man while the larger states were mired in a white woman. Give me a break!
4
@rebecca1048
Just proves my point that you set the tone, while your population is miniscule.
I have no problem with Obama as I voted for him.But it would have been better, if a state with larger population would have chosen him first.
The time has arrived to wrest America's future from the death grip of unbridled unregulated capitalism and Republican conservatism/fundamentalism.
It makes little difference whether the Democratic ticket is led by Warren or Sanders. Both fully understand this nation's need for revolutionary policies to correct the economic and social imbalances that are destroying our democracy.
If America fails to defeat Trump in 2020 or sooner, democracy and America as we knew it is doomed. As a former U.S. Army officer, who took his oath to protect and defend the Constitution of the United Sates very seriously, I weep at at what we've become.
4
My heart tell me Liz, but my brain tells me Pete. I think a joint run is a dream but I will vote for anyone from the Democratic party. I still have time to vote. I also hope that all democrats promise to vote for anyone from the Democratic party. No switching sides like Bernie voters in 2016.
1
@TheniD , your first line makes more sense with those names reversed.
1
@TheniD
Your brain should consider Pete’s age and lack of experience. He would get run over by Republicans in Congress, the bureaucracy, and probably his own staff.
1
Biden continues to uninspire through his vague, lackluster and slightly off-putting interviews, lack of ideas, vision, and plain old tired look about him. If he somehow manages to clinch the nomination, I'll vote for him, but I don't expect any change in the status quo except perhaps more civility in DC.
4
I like Joe Biden, and if not Biden, Pete Buttigeig.
Biden was a loyal vice-president for President Obama, who was a model leader, an intellectual and visionary for the country, calumnied by the current president. Biden's vice-presidency is a significant factor for me. IMHO the criticism of Biden is too harsh. Yes, he makes and has made mistakes, perhaps he did things in the 70s-90s that we shudder at today, or think better of, yet noone is pure and President Obama is correct to repudiate purity tests. Biden or Buttigeig can unite the country because each is principled but has an eager-to-please personality, a personality that is based at least to some degree on accommodation and compromise. That's what is needed, in a country of brothers and sisters that differs sharply about where to go in the future, fraught with anxiety. I think that is what President Obama (and VP Biden) understood especially well when they put forth Obamacare.
3
Where are the details on this poll? I can't find the link to the raw data.
2
Joe needs to drop out, just like Bernie. Joe was too old in 2016, his only plus was 'not-Hillary & not-Trump' which is not that exciting a message.
1
...First choice in the Iowa caucuses? How about, "Other"...?
1
Help me! How does Sanders get to get included in Democratic primaries when he's not even a member of the Democratic party.
4
Speaking of generational divides, they did not ask about candidates under 40 years of age, and whether that could be considered a liability. I think it is. I saw from Pew (I think Pew) poll that said 28% of Americans would not vote for someone under 40, while 24% would not vote for someone who is gay. I love Mayor Pete, but worry about his age more than anything.
2
I don't understand the appeal of Buttigieg. I like him but he is woefully under-qualified for the job. He has been mayor of a small city. Yes, he has combat experience and so forth, but I am living in Portland Oregon and it is a city twice as big and a mayor from here should NEVER be running the USA. I want him to get more experience. I have no problems with him being gay, though I don't think that will work to win a Trump supporter.
6
It is quite clear that Republicans would hammer Biden relentlessly over the Ukraine. It would be a repeat of Hillary Clinton’s email server and the 2016 outcome. Also, Biden doesn’t inspire his base, and has a poor history with the Anita Hill hearings. It’s over for Biden. We must give progressives a voice in Washington or face obsolescence. We cannot turn the Democratic party into a Republican-lite party like we did with Hillary Clinton. Today, Ronald Reagan would be running as a Democrat. And that has been the Republican strategy all along: to create an alternative so horrific that democrats would willfully vote for (old-style) Republicans. We shall see if Democrats take the bait - or vote their conscience.
This is a horse race analysis of a predominately white state. Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg have yet to show that they can add black voters to their base of support. That to me is key. Do we really want to nominate someone who doesn't appeal to broad coalitions? Iowa and New Hampshire will tell us a lot, but the lens will become clearer once we hit South Carolina. "Biden fades" is simplistic but I guess an eye catching headline.
4
Elizabeth Warren understands that the invisible hand of Adam Smith, left unchecked, will strangle the life out of democracy. Everybody wants the security provided by a living wage, good education, and affordable health care. In the global economy that won't happen unless the government plays a major role, particularly with global warming.
As I read these comments I fear we are a ship of fools sailing into the perfect storm.
3
Whatever else happens, Bernie's gotta go. His politics are fine by me but he is personally destructive, so much so I wonder if Putin is financing his campaign.
5
It seems fair to cover this poll as one data point in the trend of Iowa polls (Biden declining, Buttigieg climbing). However, it’s misleading to cover this particular poll as anything other than a 4-way toss-up; the 4.7% margin of error (buried deep in the article) puts the top 4 all well within this range.
2
I really don’t care who is the candidate. My only concern is that if the cancer in office isn’t removed from office, I will support the Democratic candidate as long as they will beat him. I will vote for my dog’s behind as long as it beats trump. Yes, he or she needs a strong platform, but the goal must be a return to democracy.
I cannot understand why some Democrats continue to cling to the ideas which have failed us - look out over the land —the homeless in California, fires abound, the poor in Appalachia, dead from opioids, abandoned rusted heaps in the Midwest, which might as well describe the people, too, ——no thank you, I would like to try a progressive.
1
If Elizabeth Warren would alter her health care policy so that Medicare would be one option on a menu of insurance choices it is my opinion that she would be the next President of the United States. I think Congress would alter her plans anyway but this is what the people want and the President needs to give the people what they want. I think either Pete Buttigieg or Stacy Abrams will make a fine choice for VP with the edge to Abrams. Ms. Abrams brings in the African-American southern voters, a very important block.
3
@ScottC
She simply stated in debates that she supports the legislation that Sanders sponsored. She would not prevent people from having an insurance plan that they currently have and prefer. In addition, this whole discussion is useless if the Republicans retain the Senate.
1
We shouldn't not pay any attention at all to the Iowa caucuses. The caucus format is problematic, and Iowa is unrepresentative. Thank heavens our state (Washington) has finally, at long last, got rid of the caucuses. The number of folks who attended our caucuses was significantly smaller than the number who participated in primaries. Ponder this: The 2016 Democratic presidential primaries here, which didn't even count, drew four times as many participants as the caucuses which did count. Moreover, the caucuses here always suffered much from a predictable set of built-in biases. Older people, who are reliable voters, were frightened off by the physical demands of the own caucus scheme, and participated at lower rates than did other demographics. And Caucus goers were disproportionately, for instance, extreme in their politics or unusually politically active or driven by a fanatical belief in a single issue. Sanders won the 2016 caucuses here by a landslide but in the non-counting primary the result was essentially a tie. I was a precinct captain in 2016, and so all of this firsthand.
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@Robert
Fixing a very important typo:
WE SHOULDN'T pay any attention at all to the Iowa caucuses. The caucus format is problematic, and Iowa is unrepresentative. Thank heavens our state (Washington) has finally, at long last, got rid of the caucuses. The number of folks who attended our caucuses was significantly smaller than the number who participated in primaries. Ponder this: The 2016 Democratic presidential primaries here, which didn't even count, drew four times as many participants as the caucuses which did count. Moreover, the caucuses here always suffered much from a predictable set of built-in biases. Older people, who are reliable voters, were frightened off by the physical demands of our own caucus scheme, and actually participated at lower rates than did other demographics. And caucus goers were disproportionately, for instance, extreme in their politics or unusually politically active or driven by a fanatical belief in a single issue. Sanders won the 2016 caucuses here by a landslide but in the non-counting primary the result was essentially a tie. I was a precinct captain in 2016, and saw all of this firsthand.
3
Bidens done. For the liberal wing it’s either Bernie or Warren. And Bernie seems more authentic (hence he keeps coming back in the polls).
And for the more moderate wing it’s Pete.
I hope that Bernie/Warren choose Pete as VP. Or that Pete chooses Bernie/Warren as VP.
1
Quick background on myself, I live on the border of Illinois and Iowa, am 26 years old, and have long supported Bernie Sanders as the only candidate that is going to act on behalf of poor and middle-class americans if elected. A decent amount of my friends are not going to vote for Bernie but that is because they are either too conservative or just don't vote. But there is no possible way more younger voters are going to vote for Warren over Bernie. These polls just don't account for the support Bernie has. I guess I'm the only one that remembers Clinton having a 20 point lead in the Michigan primary polls only to lose to Bernie. Most of my co-workers are between 35-45 and only one is going for Warren over Sanders, and even he admits Warren has just copied every single plan Bernie has put out. I'm not saying its going to be a blowout, but these polls do not reach Sanders voters and Iowa caucus's are going to show that.
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Bernie people staying home likely gave the election to Trump. I get the Bernie appeal. But he’s a crank. And he’s NOT a democrat. And somewhere in this stance is the reason he doesn’t work well with others.
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@Cameron This is of course also personally anecdotal, but as a younger millennial (mid-20s) living in DC but hailing from the Midwest, I don't know a single person around my age from either location that ISN'T currently voting for Warren in the primaries. I voted for Bernie in the last primary as the clear progressive choice, but most of us younger folks are not interested in being represented by another senior white man given more diverse options, and just don't view Bernie as a viable choice this second time around.
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@Gub
Half of the nation is living in poverty or near poverty. How could you NOT be angry at the way things are? Sanders is the only candidate who even dares gives a voice to the working poor, who have long been rendered invisible in the mainstream media, only to appear as objects of ridicule in reality shows such as COPS.
And when you mean "NOT a democrat", do you mean the democrats who
dropped two atomic bombs on civilian centers? Democrats who got us into the disaster known as Vietnam? Democrats who sold out the working class since the 1970s and officially in the 90s by passing NAFTA? Democrats who bailed out the banks in 2008 and not the victims of predatory lending? Democrats who propelled mass incarceration?
Those Democrats?
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The poll didn’t surprise me. Warren will be the next president. Sanders contribution to change the political narrative on Medicare for all and free college education is immense and would be recognized and remembered for that. But, it would be Warren who is good at implementing it and CFPB is a testimony for that. The rest is simply the same with different wrappers.
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Warren appears to me to be the compromise candidate between the NeoLiberal elites and the progressive base.
This is an old game for the elites.
They sent us Obama who said "yes we can" - vague platitudes that well meaning progressive base filled in the blanks with their hopes, dreams and prerogatives, but in substance the rich got richer and the opioid crisis, a symptom of a working class with 47+ years of declining expecations, only grew.
"The plans" of Elizabeth Warren look to me like the same old bad faith effort to make it appear that she represents a good faith effort for progress and progressiveness.
But in the absence of change on the ground and then working up through congress the plans never make it through congress.
We all know that. The one plan missing from Warren is the plan that would push her plans through congress controlled by the 1%.
That means Warren's plans are really purely inspirational, just like Obama's "yes we can."
That means Warren's plans are not a good faith effort at progressivism, but really consist of a bad faith effort at progressivism. And the opioid crisis will grow worse and the working class will continue to be tempted to vote for rogues like Trump.
Only Bernie has a plan to impel the congress to pass the progressive legislation that he has already written - by taking things to the people.
I love Warren's plan, but they won't happen without Bernie's plan to revolutionize our politics in favor of ordinary people.
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@Tim Kane
I have a different recollection. Yes, a message from Obama about hope and change—on that we agree. But empty platitudes? Repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, Bin Laden taken out, averted impending financial collapse, enacted Affordable Care Act (not perfect but first move toward health care reform in decades), same sex marriage moved forward, budget deficit reversed, Supreme Court appointees were not Federalist Society hacks, strengthened relations with allies through diplomacy, bailed out auto industry... The list goes on. Your recollections are sadly influenced by your political regret. I think the majority of the D candidates will continue to move our country in the progressive direction—in their own style.
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@Tim Kane
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think moderate Mayor Pete's 1st priority is changing the system. He's got vision, he just doesn't yell or wave his arms about it.
And he certainly doesn't insult veterans or sell them out.
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@Tim Kane
It appears that many are not familiar with how executive branch agencies work. Those agencies create regulations to supplement laws and they enforce laws differently, depending on who leads them. Warren has helped create an agency, the CFPB, and is aware of this.
You don’t need new legislation to reduce crony capitalism and ensure that existing law is adequately enforced. As a voter, outside of tax reform, I’m not looking for new legislation. I want someone like Warren who will appoint people to lead executive branch agencies who will enforce laws as intended and support the missions of those agencies.
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Turns out that at least in Iowa, you can still find simps who believe in “common ground.”
The political reality that we are dealing with is that America is more divided than ever. People are wary of each other. People are distrustful of government. Donald Trump has torn down institutions.
We also have major healthcare and economic policy issues on top of that, but the democrats are "missing the forest for the trees" if they think this election will hinge on healthcare policy.
It will hinge on uniting America and appealing to our common values.
2
Entitlement from Iowa, 2019 edition.
Wow, Pete is beating out Biden in Iowa, will wonders never cease. He’s hard working and appealing and comes across as firm and polite and not ‘gay’ as you find on Will and Grace shows. If Biden the white male WASP is being beaten by a woman, a Jew and a gay man, then that is really a break through cultural moment and shift, even it is just one poll. Diversity really is still on the rise.
2
Warren needs to re-think Medicare for All. Cost is too high. How about fixing Obamacare first, and ensuring 100% coverage. A gradual change to single-payer could happen, but surely Warren must realize that a multi-trillion dollar health plan is too much. The US will need that money just to deal with climate-related natural disasters in the next 5-8 years.
1
I’m retired and in favor of “Medicare for All”. I pay over $5000 a year in Medicare premiums and for supplemental insurance to cover gaps in Medicare coverage. I have deductibles and copays. I paid Medicare taxes for many years before I qualified for benefits. I do not get a subsidy. There are none. Let’s see. A family of four will pay over $20,000 a year for “Medicare for all”.
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I like Biden but my motto is : ABT= Anybody But Trump.
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Ok, ok, Elizabeth is the front runner now. Let’s see how she polls now that she has released her Medicare for all plan. While I support the concept, I have issues with the wealth tax and her plan still does not answer all the important questions. Does it go far enough, or too far? I am still of the mind set that it will be independents like myself that will determine the next president. And as a group we always lean towards centrists. Viewing Sanders and Warren as to far left, and Biden as too old and a has-been, then Buttigieg seems the most centrist and most likely to win. It will take a centrist to beat the far right trump. Otherwise prepare for another electoral college trump (pun intended) over the popular vote and a sounding victory for trump.
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@Ski bum
I don’t think that’s going to make any difference in Colorado. In addition, people are not complaining about a wealth tax because they don’t have more than $50 million in net worth.
Who cares about the details of anyone’s plan regarding healthcare and insurance? If Obamacare could barely be passed, what are the chances of anything further passing any time soon? Warren has not promised she will implement Medicare for all. She simply stated in debates that she supports the legislation that Sanders sponsored.
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I think and say it often: it's time to stop the angst-filled hand-wringing over Pete Buttigieg's electability. He can beat Donald Trump. Why? Because he's a statesman in an era when we desperately need someone to lift us up. My prediction is this: at the end of the day, voters of all stripes, all ideologies are going to go to the polls to change the tone in Washington, DC. I think it will be that simple. Pete, more than any other candidate, is able to connect with voters' desire for a moral commander in chief. To riff on a now-hackneyed expression, "It's about the inspiration, stupid."
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@Carol
Anyone can beat Trump right now. People need to get over their irrational fears and just vote for the candidates whom they prefer.
1
The biggest take away, for me, from these polls is the generational divide among the voters in terms of their preference for president. Indeed, younger voters who have few life experiences would prefer socialist candidates like Sanders and Warren. Voters who are older, have more life experiences, prefer moderates like Joe Biden. This also speaks to the indoctrination of our younger folks in the public school system and college. Believe it or not, conservatives share some of the same concerns with liberal progressives do in regards to government corruption, affordability, crony capitalism. However our solutions to fix those problems are vastly different.
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@E Robichaux
Identify anything in Warren’s career or record in Congress indicating that she’s a socialist. This is just propaganda.
In addition, what has any Republican President in recent decades done to reduce crony capitalism? They have all enabled it.
1
@BK Lets see. Heavy taxes on the wealthiest Americans and businesses and touting a government run healthcare program. Sounds socialism to me.
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@E Robichaux
That’s not socialism. Check out a dictionary since you don’t appear to have taken an economics or political science course. In a socialist country, no private business would exist.
Seems President Trump's Joe Biden and son Ukraine link is having quite the effect. Biden's own gaffes don't help either.
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And, how accurate are these polls? Let’s not forget that the NYT projected Hillary Clinton to win by a landslide.
The NYT polls said no such thing; three years later, and people STILL don’t know the diff between a poll and a prediction. Not much on margin of error data, either.
2
Warren would be the better president. She is amazing.
My only qualm is -- will any on-the-fencers vote for her? I could see some trump voters switching to Biden (the ones with the higher IQs and a sense of dignity) but not necessarily to a strong, intelligent woman. Sad commentary on our society but at this point we have to be pragmatic and get the scourge out of the White House, whatever it takes.
1
Warren has finally come out with more details how she would pay for medicare for all, and once again she is pandering to the middle and lower classes to get votes. If she is the nominee, Warren stands a good chance of being beaten by Trump and an even better chance of losing the 2020 election if the Republicans have a more establishment candidate running (Romney for example). Maybe the far left is buying the idea that the wealthy and the corporations will pay for everything, but that isn't going to happen. We need a Democratic candidate that can put a stop to the divisiveness and chaos, not make it worst.
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I was surprised to see a question about breaking up banks and tech companies combined as if they represent a single entity. These are two (or more) very different industries. If the question is about redistributing assets and power from the top 1/10 % why not ask about breaking up or nationalizing insurance companies and banks? Breaking up a “tech” company takes something functional and potentially renders it useless, thereby punishing innovation, capitalism, and functioning solutions (while hurting the economy). Eliminating profit or Moving profit from insurance companies into the federal budget could allow for lower deficits for the country or lower premiums for the citizens paying insurance “tax” to the 1/10 %. Of course, if you break up and weaken tech companies with the skills and money to compete with the big boys.... the result is to guarantee the status quo of big money at banks and insurance companies continuing to profit off (your) “other people’s money”.
The irony of this poll is that Joe Biden will be the fall of Trump. Of course Trump will take credit for Biden's drop in the polls. Maybe the fake Ukraine news had some impact, but Joe Biden was a weak candidate. Let's hope that moderates are angered by Trump's illegal Ukraine bidding and eagerly vote against him. If they don't, your candidate may never be safe from foreign governments again. Warren will be next up!
I think a Warren, Pres. and Buttigieg, VP is a winning ticket! I'm all in on that combo! Ready for big structural change baby!
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The largest message here is that Sanders & Warren draw the majority of support
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And that even among Democratic voters, only a minority support such things as Medicare for All.
1
Trump just won 2020.
He did not even need a real investigation of Biden.
He did not even need an announcement by Ukraine that they would investigate but then do not.
All he needed was a threat there might be an investigation.
And that alone spooked half of Biden’s Iowa supporters.
Getting impeached was worth it.
Bye, bye, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan.
Good luck with your $20 Trillion Medicare for All that forces 70 percent of Americans to give up the insurance they already have and like.
Thank you Iowa — you are just so smart.
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Thank you; it’s useful to be reminded that Trumpists really do think any lie or slander is Just Fine, as long as they think it’ll get them what they want.
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Warren as possibly the first female president, and Buttigieg as the first gay president are both mentioned - why is it that the NYT fails time and again to mention Sanders as the first Jewish president on the topic of the candidates’ diversity?
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I know it doesn't make for a good story, but please, add error bars to your plots!
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joe biden's mission is accomplished. while using joe and hunter biden as impeachment bait, the democrats snagged a hugely great orange sucker , hook, line and sinker. well played, joe and hunter.
The Iowa caucuses have always favored whoever could eat the most fried porkchops-on-a-stick at the state fair. If you could remind us who that was it'll save us a lot of debate time.
The most ridiculous poll yet! Then again, it is Iowa, where voters are really white and Warren', Buttigieg', and Sanders' voter base IS REALLY white. Now do a national aggregate and South Carolina. The NY Times learned nothing from 2016...
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I appreciate this article noting that so and so was the preferred SECOND choice of various likely voters. Why not show that in your graphs and ask about third choices as well. That way we would have a much more accurate picture of how to identify the best choice for the most voters.... and therefore the strongest candidate in the future.
Prediction: Today's announcement by Warren of tax increases she proposes to fund Medicare for All will begin her slow but steady decline in the polls.
She seems unaware of just how many active, voting, moderately (and more) affluent progressives have health insurance they like.
I wish I had confidence that these voters would take a long view and look past their narrow personal situation in favor of a long term solution providing care to millions desperately needing it.
I don't. None.
1
#PresidentPete
#AnybodyButTrump2020
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Wow, not even a single peep in this whole article about Beto O'Rourke. Remember when everyone from Oprah Winfrey to LeBron James was touting this guy as the next POTUS? And now he doesn't even get mentioned in a lengthy article about the Iowa Caucuses? Again, wow.
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He talks like a college sophomore. He comes across as passionate but clueless.
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@David R He is done. Very shallow.
15
Same thing I was asking myself. Where's Beto? I've actually donated to his campaign a few times. The only one I've done it for so far.
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Warren or Biden = Too Much or Not Enough.
I never really thought how Americans would seriously believe we should have POTUS in their late 70's . Call it ageism or whatever you like but the idea is ludicrous IMO and one of the most Anti American non progressive things we can do as a nation. Why is a large segment of Americans literally afraid of moving forward and not being more progressive to benefit our country . Why is it so hard for Americans to let go of our past that has horrible practices and policies that doesn't benefit us as American citizens, for example how does it benefit us to have homeless people, starving children, no medical health care or free college and trade schools which benefit us all as a nation.
Reelecting the same type of people (sorry it is old white men) to govern us only keep us stuck in the same miserable place we constantly find ourselves complaining about being in.
Warren is a nightmare. Pete is the one.
2
Steve Bullock !!!
Buttigieg just doesn't have the experience,
Klobuchar is the experienced moderate under 70 years old.
3
The worst part of the upcoming election will be that we are forced to vote for an obvious fool in order to get rid of an obvious villain.
Is this the best the Democrats can do? How dare they call themselves a party, given their poor organization and fawning over superhero candidates.
2
Pete seems to be the answer to your issue here. Rhodes scholar, Harvard graduate, veteran, marketing and economics experience. The list goes on and on. He’s a good man, he stands for what he believes in, and he is a STRONG candidate. The way he speaks in almost Obama-esque.
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@jessica haegele
And there's the fawning.
1
Makes sense Warren is in the lead. NYT has been promoting her as the candidate to beat since day one. Whenever I think they are fresh out of loves stories to write about her, they keep finding ones to write.
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@Kevin
Check out the articles about her here from January and see if anyone supported her “since day one.”
It is the second vote that matters in a caucus.
Looks good for Buddegeig not Warren.
Warren cannot win. Once again, Democrats are setting ourselves up for failure. A Warren (or Bernie) nominee means four more years of Trump.
The NYT clearly wants Warren and not Biden - shame on you when we end up with President Trump again.
4