A Brexit Logjam, in Three Dimensions

Its going to be so funny watching the Labour MPs who backed Johnson's deal explain to their constituents why they have no sick pay or holiday pay any more.

The major problem to a solution is in the person of Jeremy Corbyn. He doesn't really know what to do as he is caught between his party activists who want to remain, and his party constituency that wishes to leave. Unfortunately, the Labour party is stuck with him as they don't know how to have him step down. It would have been easy to form an interim government among the opposition parties and the independent conservatives. But Corbyn insisted that only HE could head it, even if only for a very short term. The independent conservatives could not agree to this which would give Corbyn a leg up in the next election. The interim government could have ruled out "no deal" and found a better compromise with the EU, or even provided for a second referendum--probably the only way to put this issue finally to rest. Soon though, there will be an election and the Labour party with Corbyn at the top will suffer an historical defeat. Their manifesto, if you can believe it, will be to negotiate a close relationship with the EU and then a referendum--and in the referendum campaign for remaining in the EU. Corbyn has proven that he is indecisive, adding to the qualities that make him unacceptable to the average UK voter.

i wonder what would happen if EU simply granted a long extension — a decade-long extension, maybe — and put the burden squarely on the Westminster government and the British people to sort out this mess. Despite all the uncertainty, the status quo is functional. And, in the long run the EU has little to gain by being played in the present game of brinksmanship.

I'm not certain that, if there's a general election, Johnson would gain an outright majority. The Scottish Nationalist Party will campaign to remain in the EU & for a second referendum. In the EU referendum Scotland voted 62% remain 38% leave. In the 2014 General Election the SNP took 56 of the 59 parliamentary seats in Scotland. In the last GE that fell to 35 seats. However, given the strength of feeling in Scotland that number is likely to increase. I can't see a single tory holding their seat in Scotland, especially if there is tactical voting. In England, if the tory MP's ejected by Johnson stand as independents some might hold their seats. Tactical voting could also see Liberal Democrats making gains. If UKIP fields candidates that is likely to reduce the vote for any tory they stand against. Labour will likely campaign for a second referendum & I can't see that doing their chances any harm; it might even mean that they make some gains. The DUP view Johnson's Bill to leave the EU as a "betrayal", so no help for Johnson there. If there is a hung Parliament, I can't see where Johnson can look for help in forming a coalition government. The most likely outcome is a Labour & SNP coalition. In that eventuality the SNP is likely to press for a second independence referendum which they would probably win, leading to the breakup of the UK.

A comment is too short to explain the implications of a multi party parliamentary system with first past the post elections to someone who hasn't followed but here goes. Long story short the British parliamentary system is roughly like the electoral college on steroids and it takes a lot less than a 50% vote for the Conservative party to win an election. A referendum in theory takes 50%÷1 vote to win in the simplest case. But the simplest case is not the best and wouldn't be accepted, so a referendum would take more time than the UK has before the deadline runs out. So Boris Johnson says he wants an election. And surprise, he is playing the clock again because when time runs out and the deadline is passed he gets what he claims he wants anyway which is a no deal Brexit, with or without an election. To confuse things further, the official opposition Labour party leader Corbyn personally wants Brexit too, but he needs to be able to blame Brexit on the Conservatives because Labour supporters are themselves evenly split on Brexit. It's all about power plays and the appearance of democracy rather than actual informed public choices for the public good. And this suicide pact between Labour and Conservatives has held for 3 years so far because more than Brexit itself both Labour and Tory leaders are interested in keeping their jobs, whike all each party's supporters want is for their own party's agenda to win out. Sound a bit more like Congress and American politics now?

Why can’t the EU ask for a popular vote as a requirement for an extension? Seems the simplest way for everyone to save face.

All the opposition parties should be extremely distrustful of Johnson's proposal ,to debate his withdrawal bill, in return for a December the 12th election. Undoubtedly this date has been chosen by Johnson as young students at University would very likely be away from their term time residences and unable to vote other than by postal ballot, which many will not apply for. These student votes matter in marginal seats. Other people are less likely to vote in the run up to Christmas. The negotiated deal with the EU allows for a no deal Brexit at the end of 2020, if there is no free trade deal with the EU. This will result in a melt down in the UK economy for which there are no government economic models, it is so dire, and untold misery for 90% of the population. The Johnson government is currently avalanching the public with photo opportunities of him visiting NHS Hospitals and children in Junior schools. This is nauseating propaganda as he is no friend of any public services. His Government is a disaster and hopefully when the election comes he will be decisively defeated.

Britain started this entire mess. Let them make the first move.

Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, loyalists threaten political violence and the IRA is showing its muscle with paramilitary policing of Catholic areas and bombing attempts against police. This is not going to end well. And 3/4 of Scotland voted Remain. They are not going to stand for being dragged out by England.

If I were the EU I would have already given them the boot. Years of Thatcherite austerity has destroyed the social safety net while Brexit propaganda has focused on the costs of EU membership rather than the benefits. We are about to see the privatization of services previously provided by the government as the new "Universal Income" scam has impoverished even more people. They haven't seen anything yet of how bad it's going to be. A growing homeless problem among other things.

Why would the results of a second referendum be less valid than the results of the first, would the opposite not be true. The only downside is if it led to a third of fourth referendum...

Ireland and Scotland should not have to suffer for Brexit. Independance and EU membership for Scotland and N Ireland. The Republic of Ireland already has both but should not have to be penalized. There should be no border re introduced between N and S Ireland. To watch shows such as Downton Abby one would think that the Irish are just a bunch of disgruntled pests who should follow the lead of the character Tom and become obsequious loyalists.

I've got a question. Most articles in recent months seem to assume that Conservatives would win an election, and so are willing to go for it, but that they might lose a second referendum, so are resisting that. I'm surprised by the assumptions, though maybe opinion polls bear it out. But I would think that any election for Parliament would be largely a proxy for Brexit, and with hindsight, I'd think Conservatives would lose handily? Unless Corbyn is that unpopular? Might someone clarify...

Europe will blink. They'll sigh, roll their eyes and grant another extension. A no deal Brexit is not in their interests either. Of course, what might already be in tatters is the British brand, the stoic no nonsense steady as she goes reliability everyone used to expect from the island. Her reputation is finished. No election will solve that.

Labor should make a counter offer of an election shortly after a new referendum. The combination of the two in that order is fairly likely to lead to a resolution of the issue. The referendum could be structured with 1st, 2nd and third choice options. This is at least worth a try and it might help people accept the outcome of the referendum because, after all this time, people are better informed about the consequences of a Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn is stalling because he is pro-Brexit himself. That’s why Labor has no clear message on this. Any other leader would’ve been pounding the pavement for a new referendum — but not Corbyn.

A non binding referendum that didn’t even meet the minimum threshold of action put forth by the government itself should never have been used to determine something this monumental. That’s why it was never designed to, for this very reason. England, not the UK but England, has made a fool out of themselves for three long years because they decided to simply this ungodly complex question into a simple yes/no. Apparently, putting one of the most difficult and far reaching questions to the same group of people who by and large don’t even know Ireland is a separate country, was a bad idea? Shocking. The arrogance displayed by the British conservatives is an example of a forlorn empire taking its final breaths of relevancy. Once this process is over, the true pathetic nature of these revanchists will be revealed. And the rest of the world will just move on without them.

Putin, especially, must be quite happy with the political messes in both the UK and the US.

There is much to be said for France's argument that the UK must come up with a proposal. The UK keeps telling us what it doesn't like but cannot come up with anything constructive. Maybe it is something in British culture that makes it impossible to cooperate with others in a group on an equal footing; in the UK it first has to be determined who has the power, and then a decision is made accordingly. So it comes to a decision in a different way, and arguments do not matter. Johnson who now is in power uses on Northern Ireland the same arguments that he opposed when May was in power. Instinctively the UK kept wrecking the European project with often silly arguments, such as arguing against crooked cucumbers. The only good EU would be an EU wherein the UK was boss. Economically, a Brexit would be a disaster for the UK, and it would be detrimental to the EU as well. But the rulers of the English tribes fear to lose their power when the EU's culture would pervade the UK's forever backward-looking culture. As it is, the UK is wrecking the European project. It may be done instinctively or on purpose: purposeful wrecking can certainly not be excluded given the mentality of Johnson, Mees Rogg and the British press. In that case, the faster Brexit arrives, the better.

"For good measure, the Treasury announced it would delay the introduction of a commemorative 50 pence coin to mark Britain’s exit from Europe." This stupid coin shows you exactly where the government's priorities are. Spend the taxpayers' money but only if it helps get you votes.

It's amazing to see Johnson win support for his "deal," only to have him suspend debate on the legislation required to put it in place. He clearly wants a hard Brexit, no matter the cost. In the UK, as in the US, nationalism has overcome common sense.

At this point, as one of the Britons (dual citizen with US) who voted remain, my mood is one of grim despair and incredulity. The Conservatives (that is, the Conservative and UNIONIST Party), starting with the 2010 Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition, are destroying this country. It started with "austerity" under David Cameron and George Osborne: yanking the social safety net from under the poor and disabled, forcing a massive, expensive and destructive reorg on the NHS, selling off Royal Mail, pushing an expensive Academy/Free school vanity project while cutting funds for school building and maintenance. You get the picture. And now, they are finishing it off with the hardest and most destructive brexit they can get away with. The damage to the UK is incalculable: inward investment down, breakup of the union a real possibility, complete political paralysis, a laughing stock on the international stage... I am limited by the word count allowed. I was one of the million who marched in London for a final say in the form of a referendum on what happens next. Other than that (and writing to my MP), there is nothing I can do. No one can say what will happen. What is just unbelievable is that the politicians involved, especially Boris Johnson, would allow this catastrophe to go forward.

Put a vote to the people to revoke Article 50, or keep Article 50.

I think we need to make one or more of those Scottish Islands that are currently uninhabited but used to have monks on them habitable and just send all republicans and brexiteers to live on them once this evil mess they have perpetrated upon us is put to an end.

If the British government can't function efficiently, then isn't it time for the Queen to act briefly like a monarch and step in to break the logjam? It's time for her to take a side on the Brexit question.