Recalculating.... they all know they can't count on Trump. Bibi was very shortsighted when he gave a speech before Congress disparaging Obama, and subsequently turned his back on Democrats generally. He's burned some bridges that will make it harder for Israel to get help from the U.S. if he remains prime minister.
35
I don’t want war in the Middle East. I want out. We never should have been there. Why do politicians who get money from weapons manufacturers think I should believe a word they say?
If anyone is interested in getting a newsflash on the Nytimes and their pro-war stance, check out Jimmy Dore’s videos on youtube.
3
I've had it, the overwhelming stupidity, ignorance, and arrogance exhibited by Trump and the morons surrounding him coupled by our milquetoast news media too cowardly to even state indisputable fact, even when there is video, is heart breaking. Glad I'm an old sentimental romantic, there's no place for people like me anymore. Minds well surrender to the MBA's who think they are educated, are full of themselves, as they toil every day calculating the next jump in prices.
2
We know that Putin controls the fool Trump's insane mind as much as anyone. There is no doubt in my mind that Erdogan, not a fool, listens to Putin more than any other nation leader. So, now tell us Tom what Putin has planned for the Mid-East? How does NATO continue with Turkey as a member? What do world leaders do about the unstable fool Trump?]
4
It was Iran or Santa Claus - what more proof do you want?
It was Israel's Pearl Harbour - but Israel was not attacked. Exaggeration?
Is it all about Israel - or not?
The Sunni (led by Saudi Arabia) and Shia (led by Iran) are deep into a religious war - but is Israel that is the target.
What is the definition of paranoia again?
3
Mr. Friedman:
Wondering if you might continue this analysis with another column that might include links to Russo/Turkish interests in this debacle.
1
Couple points to keep in mind while reading this article:
a) Trump pulled out of the Nuclear deal, imposing sanctions which does not allow MS patients get medicine
b) Do not forget the author used to be the great promoter of Muhammed Bin Salman.
c) "Iran’s is an awful regime!!!" compared to US ally Saudi Arabia, Iran's regime is saint
d) Pulling out of Nuclear deal, Trump did not give Iranian any choice to cause more trouble in the Middle East
e) Trump plan to pull out US troops from Middle East could work great, if he would have done slight deal making to enforce US interests. The problem is that Trump is not clear what US interests are and folks like this author care more about Israel's interest rather than US.
3
My only hope is that Jared Kushner will get the chance to sort out the mess in the Middle East before his father in law is impeached. It could end in disaster otherwise.
As much as I can't stand Trump I have to agree with him on the idea that we have no business getting involved in never ending middle eastern conflicts.
If they are never ending then how do you get out? How do you know which side to take? Your enemy today may be your ally in the future. How many times did we switch sides with Iraq?
But they are killing their own people !
So did Abraham Lincoln and we have a monument to him in Washington. Whichever side you take will cause problems with the big picture. If they are never ending then it's best to stay out of it.
George W. Still the worst ever.
2
This "shake up" sounds like the last Middle East one you got so excited about: regime change in Iraq.
There is nothing "new" about what Iran has done, other than showing its technical capability (BTW, the black and white nature of your description of the attack on Saudi oil operations is not matched by any other publicly available description).
Do you really believe Iran is trying to "encircle" Israel through Syria? Or do you have a more pragmatic belief that Iran is ensuring, through its heavily costly involvement in Syria, that the one country that has helped it in Lebanon (with Hezbollah), won't be lost to a sycophantic lackey to the US?
And if you feel Israel is so important in the formulation of Iran's policies, do you feel Israeli actions and policies have anything to do with this alleged pre-eminence in Iranian policy formulation?
And to argue that Iran is like North Korea! One really doesn't know where to start. Isn't the Iranian population highly educated? Aren't more than 50% of Iranian university students, women? Doesn't Iran have a reasonably well developed infrastructure (at least until our crippling sanctions)?
If so, then are the problems in Iran a creation of Iran or a creation of our policies? What other country in the Middle East so well educates its women and empowers them to work and divorce men (include Israel)? What other Middle Eastern country so fully engages the entirety of its population, including Jews (again, include Israel)? None.
7
The prospect of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE and Qatar sitting down and talking out their issues instead of murdering Yemenis sounds like an objectively good thing. We really need to examine our received ethic of Israeli exceptionalism. It helps nobody--Israelis least of all--and simply guarantees that the near east will continue see generations of innocents sacrificed by self-serving and morally untethered autocrats in the service of ideals nobody even remembers anymore. Here's the thing: your description of the ills wrought by the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon its people could very easily be repurposed to describe the manifold desecrations imposed by the government of Israel on the peoples under its jurisdiction. Anticipating claims that my critique of Israel has some connection to the phenomenon erroneously dubbed "antisemitism" (Ethiopians are Semites, after all), consider this: the fetishization of Israel on the part of the majority of Americans has nothing to do with the Jewishness of the majority its citizens (see America's most prominent antisemite [sic]: President Donald John Trump) and everything to do with the country's enthusiastic adoption of the nihilo-captalism that is the true American ideology.
1
Friedman has zero evidence that Iran, and not the Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia. He bases his accusations on the words of an Israeli scientist, not an unbiased source. In fact, it is Israel , not Iran, that is the terrorist nation in the Middle East, attacking Iraq,Syria, Lebanon , Gaza, and threatening Iran on a daily basis.Netanyahu has been trying to drag the U.S. into a disastrous war in Iran for a decade.
5
Tired of winning yet?
Mutually Assured Destruction kept the U.S. and the Soviets from annihilating each other for decades; maybe it will work in the Middle East.
When I read or hear about the tensions between t rump and other leaders, like Erodagan, it sounds like the kinds of hissy fits Renaissance princes and kings used to throw when someone else's court would not recognize them.
The entire world could use some grown ups in charge.
I used to love reading the New York Times and Thomas L. Friedman's column until he started making up stories. It is not proven yet that " In the early hours of Sept. 14, the Iranian Air Force launched roughly 20 drones and cruise missiles at one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil fields and processing facilities. " It should be against the law and integrity of a distinguished paper make a false statement. Iran has every right to defend itself. Iran has not attacked any country in 270 years. How many times Isreal has attacked Lebanon or Syria? The US should leave Mid-East and let Iran take care of her own backyard. Iran's government might not be perfect but her presence in the neighboring countries, fighting ISIS, has made Iran the safest place in the world. This issues and sense of pride has united Iranians more than anything in 40 years. Today, Turkey is entering Syria, this is wrong. It was Iran's foot soldiers who got rid of ISIS, not any other country. It was US who created Mujahedeen of Afghanistan, Taliban, Al Qude and ISIS. It is cheaper for the US and Saudis to make peace with Iran and let Iran run the Mid-East as she had for thousands of years. Mr. Fiedman's story ignores a very important factor in such an event, the Arab populations' reaction of an Isreali attack on Iran. You hear Suni Arab government's friendship with Isreal against, but you do not hear anything about Arab populations reaction to this friend
4
That Mr. Friedman continues to unashamedly advocate for Israel, fabricate lies, and promote war should surprise no one. But to pursue his questionable agenda in such brazen insult to human intelligence is astounding.
America has had its own Pearl Harbor and we have made the necessary sacrifices to undo evil. It is time for the rest of the world to take care of their own Pearl Harbors.
At a time when our nation is challenged by economic inequality, social upheaval, cultural fragmentation, environmental degradation, political corruption, and alarming decline in our democratic values and practices, we must not fall for the war mongers’ call to jump, yet one more time, to defend the alleged threat to the security of Israel.
Advocates of America’s perpetual wars, like Mr. Friedman, should seriously consider, well, an alternative mode of thinking appropriately grounded in …
recalculating, recalculating, recalculating.
3
I love how Friedmen always parrots the talking points of right-wing israelis, it's as if Israel hasn't been bombing in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria for the last few years. Thinking this was going to continue indefinitely is nuts. As for bombing Tehran another of Friedman's hero's Saddam tried that and it didn't work out too well in the long term I doubt Israel would try something similar.
4
Thank You Tom for your testimony to Iran's superior capabilities..in strategy and weapon capabilities. Be careful..your check from Israel might not be in the mail too much longer.
P.S. You do realize even Saudi has not confirmed the strikes were from the Iranian governmentHaven't you read that Iran and Saudi are moving forward on diplomatic agreements?You do realize that Iran 's military advisors and soldiers are the reason behind Isis weakening?
5
My head hurts but thanks Tom.
1
Your column is already hopelessly out of date. Iran has not bombed any civilians in the countries that border on Iran.
Turkey has already dropped bombs on Ras al Ain as we can see from the first images published by the Times. We do not know who these bombs are landing on, but we do know they are not oil processing installations as was the target in Saudi Arabia.
Thomas L. Friedman, turn your attention to the terror that the President of the United States has given his friend Erdogan the signal, Erdogan was waiting for - movement of a cluster of American troops out of harms way, where the harm is being carried out by US ally, Turkey.
Enough, no words suffice here or in any of our now 1000s of comments.
Only voting in 2020 will matter, far too late for the Kurds and others who will die in the coming hours, days, weeks.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
3
Why is it that authors insist in not saying "Ayatollah regime" instead of just using the word "Iran"? Let me explain.
If you use the phrase "Ayatollah regime", you will be able to say, that the same Ayatollah regime, that is carrying out human rights violations in Iran, is attacking other nations. It all then becomes very clear. But more importantly, it does not implicate innocent non-violent secular Iranians.
3
"In the early hours of Sept. 14, the Iranian Air Force launched roughly 20 drones and cruise missiles at one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil fields and processing facilities. " Mr. Freedman we do have short memories but not as short as you seem you think: it hasn't been established by anyone that the Iranians launched that attack. Not yet anyway as your statement presumes.
7
One has to wonder what our relationship with Iran today would be like if the US and Great Britain had not worked together to overthrow a democratically elected government in 1956 over oil. Then installed the Shah of Iran, who used the secret police, Savak, to brutally suppress all political opposition until the Iranian Revolution tossed him out. One could argue that western powers created the Iran we have today. I never see this background information included when columnists talk about Iran. Thus, very few people know about the US's culpability for Iran's current harsh stance towards the west.
2
Mr. Friedman opines that Israel has notified Iran that missile attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria will be met by massive retaliation - with nukes, presumably knowing the Israelis - on Tehran. The retaliation is supposed to be accomplished by Israel-based ballistic missiles and Israeli cruise missile subs operating in the Persian Gulf.
The Iranians are ready to risk this now.
Notably, retaliation is not going to accomplished by the former US, as Trump has de facto declared.
The former US neocons and Israeli Fifth Column in the US have been pushing American politicians to go to war for Israel for over twenty years.
Now, they have their answer. Trump and the former US military are not going to launch a preemptive war against Iran for Israel.
They won't retaliate if Israel gets hit by Iran or its proxies.
Mr. Friedman needs to face the reality that Israel and the Israel-Firsters in the former US are on their own now. Public sentiment is against them. They have run out their credit.
Now as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are seeking a rapprochement with Iran, as a result of its decisive military strategic advantage, so the Israelis and Israel Lobby in the former US should also cease the belligerent talk and posturing.
Any war in the Mideast that they provoke is going to not only devastate Israel, but also seriously jeopardize neocon influence in the former United States.
High time they climbed down. Most of the former US will be glad they're off our backs.
2
@Charlie
If Iran launches a full-scale missile assault on Israel using its missile bases in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, and succeeds in quickly destroying much of Israel's infrastructure, Israel will CERTAINLY threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran, and the US will CERTAINLY rush to Israel's assistance to stop this from happening.
Remember that Congressional Republicans are solidly pro-Israel, as are many Democrats. Remember too that the Democratic Leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, is more of a pro-Israel hawk than are many Israelis.
Seems to me Israel will likely go it mainly alone against Iran if Iran wants a war .The Saudis will be publicly cheering for Israel as will the US but I dont see them getting involved and Tom is correct that Lebanon as Iran's proxy would likely be the first major casualty
Bibi didn't like Obama, but at least Obama was straight with him. Obama told him honestly: we don't want to get involved another Middle East war, but we also care about protecting Israel from a nuclear Iran, so we will do what we can. We'll make a deal--however imperfect--that halts their nuclear program. Many in the IDF were on board with this as the least bad option available.
But then along comes Trump, promising the moon. Move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem? No problem. Tear up Obama's nuclear deal with Iran? Done. Jettison peace negotiations based on the two state solution? Fine with me.
Many in Israel have misread Trump's cost-free rhetorical support to mean that he actually had their back. They are now starting to realize their mistake. Trump has no more desire to get involved in a Middle East war than Obama did. But Trump is a pathological liar, so he's not going to come right out and tell you that.
Now Israel has the worst of all possible worlds: no nuclear deal AND no guarantee of military support from the U.S. in the case of a war with Iran. They have understood too late that Trump's business model has always been to give something that costs nothing in return for something of value. He charges people a lot to put his name on their buildings. And his price to defend your country with American blood? Don't ask. You can't afford it.
85
@Htb
If Iran attacks Israel and does extensive damage to Israel's strategic assets (or kills many civilians), Israel will threaten to use nuclear weapons to prod the US into providing whatever military assistance is needed to quickly defeat the Iranians. Trump will listen to the Republicans and Democrats in Congress who are SOLIDLY pro-Israel (Chuck Schumer, just to start), even though he would prefer to stay out of the fight.
1
Yippee kiyay, the arms dealers must be ecstatic. More markets are opening up every day. Who says trump isn't good for business.
I'll bet that the mid east leaders are now ruing the day that trump decided leave the 6 country nuclear deal to wage economic war on Iran. Iran is not some Queens contractor that will quietly fade away when faced with a trump lawsuit. That they struck out at the Saudis, trump's bestie in the ME, indicates Mr. Friedman is right. The Iranians read trump exactly as a man who has no friends.
3
Is there proof positive that these missiles/drones were Iranian? Who else would benefit by triggering an escalation of animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Who in the Middle East actually has the technology to launch and guide long-range cruise missiles and drones so precisely? Which Prime Minister in the Middle East was facing a tough re-election campaign while under indictment for corruption and would benefit from a perceived escalation of tensions in the Middle East?
3
What I get out of this, besides feeling depressed, is that we are seeing just how much American involvement in the Mideast has kept the lid on a simmering pot. Now, with Mr. Trump’s lack of perspective, planning, and spontaneity, we are pulling back from trying to stabilize the region. We’re now looking at this part of the world through the rear view mirror, and it’s not a pretty sight. The United States has made mistakes throughout our history, but we have generally been guided by some principle of making the world a better place. With our new nationalism, we don’t have that philosophy any more, and I fear we will one day pay the price. Mr. Trump and his enablers are systematically making the world a worse place, and the Mideast may well be the poster child for this view.
3
So Iran or Houthis attack Saudi oil installation, it should require us to have troops illegally in Syria, because it is good for Israel? Give me a break. Israel doesn't run the world, at least it doesn't yet.
Israel just a few weeks ago attacked Iraq from territories occupied by Kurds who are supported by the US troops. Israel is jeopardizing American troops. The sooner the Kurds of Syria reconcile with the Syrian government the better they and we are. This withdrawal will precipitate that, and that is a good thing. Israel can fix their problems by treating Palestinians as human beings. They shouldn't expect us to spend more blood and treasure on their behalf. Times are changing, deal with it Friedman, even your MBS is changing.
3
Mr. Friedman explains much and it is frightening. Trump must be stopped. Almost every policy move he has made has been in service to Russia. All this illuminates for me that Russia controls Trump. How much more evidence do we need than this concession to Turkey. The Kurds are Christian, honorable people, and have been our allies for many years.
5
All True Mr. Friedman, all true. Yes, and when it comes to honoring our commitments to a friend, we just put a giant question mark (followed by a happy face) on our trustworthiness by letting Turkish President-for-Life Erdogan play Red Light/ Green Light, at the expense of our 'Allies' the Kurds. Ecch, with friends like this- Well you know the rest.
5
Most wars fought by the United States in the Middle East have been aimed at protecting Israel from an alleged land bridge between Iran and Lebanon. Have other countries in the Middle East no national rights? Do they not have any security concerns regarding Israel's almost routine attacks on Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq and possessing an arsenal of nuclear weapons?
The Middle East would be a much more peaceful place if US governments adopted a more balanced approach towards Middle Eastern issues and were concerned more about the US than than Israeli interests. The answer to insecurity in the Middle East is to devise a collective security system that ensures the security of all regional states as well as Israel. The continued lopsided love affair with Israeli rightwing governments will perpetuate wars and insecurity for all.
7
The countries of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Iran have long proposed a nuclear free zone in that region, only to be rejected by Israel and US. They insist that Israel be allowed to be the sole nuclear power and not allow inspections or join NPT. Any country that doesn’t have the nuclear deterrent is subject to regime change at the whim of US.
5
Clearly, a broken clock is right twice a day, the first time was in this case and the second time was in the current case of Turkey. After this? Lets pray for forgiveness.
Israel, like our other close allies, now realizes that Washington is under the control of a man with little regard for other people, no less other nations. The kernal here that rings true is that Iran will not stop its meddling and subterfuge to destabilize the Middle East until it suffers a consequence to its homeland that may in fact destabilize the fundamentalist regime.
1
This means that, provided Iran is prepared to fight to the last Lebanese Shi ite, which I am pretty sure they are, they do not need a nuclear weapon to aspire to cripple Israel.
whether we agree or not with current Israeli policy toward the Palestine Arabs -- i certainly do not, and believe a major change is critical for Israeli relations with the U. S. -- we need to take this on board and work out what to do, starting with further augmentation of what I assume are strong Israeli anti-missle capabilities. However, this is not enough and we need to build further deterance whilst seeking to change Iranian behavior.
@Philip D. Sherman
Iran does not even need the Lebanese Hezbollah fighters to wage war against Israel. Iran controls missile bases in Syria and western Iraq (both within strike range of all of Israel), from where it could launch massive barrages of cruise missiles and drones against Israeli strategic targets. Even if only 40% get through, Iran can cripple Israel without launching a single plane.
By contrast, Israel needs to use its jets to hit Iran (and only a relatively small number have the range and payload to do much damage). Not all these jets would get through, so the amount of damage which could be wrought on Iran may be much less than what Iran can do to Israel.
Bear in mind that Iran is 80 times the size of Israel, and has 10 times the population so (at least in theory), Israel needs 80 missiles for every Iranian missile to do comparable damage.
That leaves Israel's intermediate range ballistic missiles (designed to carry a nuclear payload, but could be armed with high explosives) and a very small number of conventional subs with nuclear weapons. But if Israel refrains from using nuclear weapons, it lacks the ability to defeat Iran or do much damage, compared to what Iran could do from Syria and Iraq. And then, there is also Hezbollah in Lebanon, with its thousands of missiles.
Bottom line, in a major war, the US will need to come to Israel's assistance to stop Israel from using its nuclear weapons against Iran. The likelihood of US intervention is 100%.
1
While Trump is retreating on all his fronts (China, N. Korea, Brexit, Venezuela,) he might as well reinstate the nuclear agreement with Iran.
That will leave us back where we started, and we can begin to sort out our foreign policy without his bluster and blundering.
5
Thank you for, once again, giving the wider picture of this very complex situation. Unfortunately, I now feel worse about it than I did before I read your article!
2
Did I read this correct that Thomas Friedman hopes and wishes Israel to nuke Tehran from their submarines (made and paid by Germany) if the US withdraws from an illegal (at least this was said by members of congress and mostly Democrats) deployment over 2 years ago by Trump? So this was all about Israel, and Israel doesn't want it any other way?
Friedman's support for wars on Iraq, Libya, Syria, his support for MBS, and MBZ and the rest of Arab dictators, 3 letter or otherwise, genocide in Yemen, and everything around and in between is all about Israel? When do we Americans get to have a say about it all? We are exhausted with two decades of unending wars, doing more harm to us than good. Time to bring the troops home. If Israel wants salvation they should treat the Palestinians as equal human beings, because in my bible, the constitution of the USA, and declaration of independence "all men are created equal". We should stay far away from tribal affiliations. Promote with humility equality of all and prosperity of all nations as best as we can, and let the rest of the world figure out their way.
2
The new "axis of evil" is the Trump/Kushner-Netanyahu-MBS group, and it has Iran in its crosshairs.
10
The photo, accompanying the column, of Hezbollah supporters wearing a geadband with a picture of Khomeini attached reminds me of Trump supporters werain their red "MAGA" hats. True believers all.
7
Is there ever the possibiity that Iran and Israel could talk to each other. They have more in comon than with any other counry in the region except Egypt. This madness has got to stop. If Jews were freed from Babylon and resettled there must be some way that the two real powers and real civilisations in the area can talk before the other players recreate the last years of WW I with Russia and Turkey fighting to see how many Kurds and others can be killed. If only we had some leaders in the world. Why not Obama for Sec. Gen of the United Nations. Why not Tom Friedman?
5
Simple these politicians can’t exist unless they are destroying planet earth. The ridiculous slogans ,words of hate across the world just demonstrates that putting on a clean shirt doesn’t make you a human being
It’s exhausting the racial superiority lies, murders, religious persecution, famine, rape children in cages, tariffs suppression of speech, selling our technology to dictators for profit.
The list goes on and it is apparent that the human race has no desire to leave in peace or to scientifically advance the human race.
Now I understand why science fiction stories realized that we had no future we just can’t be normal we would rather be dead than to live in peace
This has gone on for centuries so it will continue. Not enough normal people who truly care about life,liberty and the pursuit of happiness
3
Fake news—but the fact is we are lucky to have Netanyahu keeping the Occupation going, and the spending of US tax dollars heading full steam ahead.
5
Tom,
A fools errand to trust trump pays dividends for adversaries. Is there a Hebrew euphemism ?
2
Meanwhile, back in the Oval Office, our dear leader, tans, eats, golfs, and tweets.
4
Let them have it out.
So instead of all the war mongering- wouldn't it be more beneficial to have Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US make a peace deal with Iran? One that would have benefits to all countries? Let's say- one that would limit Iran's nuclear activities while also pulling it into the modern world.
I remember how much Netanyahu hated the idea of negotiating with Iran and wanted JCPOA trashed. Maybe the problem isn't Iran. How does that translate into Hebrew?
10
“The Saudis and the U.A.E. got the message. They, too, got busy looking for the Iranian leader’s cellphone number — and the number of the pro-Iranian emir of Qatar, too. Time to get right with all the neighbors.”
Why is that a bad news? The ‘anti-Iran’ front was designed with US support. Now that US support goes away, they are trying to mend fences.
This is exactly what the framers saw and anticipated. They saw the evolution of an Austro-Prussian conflict into a seven years war - maybe whetted and abated by the Superpowers of the day.
We should stop putting up irrational frontlines when the local leaders can solve it themselves.
4
I say good for Iran to have the capability to defend themselves against the advantage the U.S. has sewn into the fabric of the creation of the State of Israel. Unfortunately it takes a well armed foe to make countries think twice before destabilizing the world. I wish we had that prior to our unilateral Iraq malfeasance. The U.S. has changed destiny's for the worst in the Middle East. If any aggressions happen with U.S. financed munitions gifted wrapped to Israel with a money-back guarantee, we might as well be fighting the war instead of Israel - and won't Israel love that.
4
"Iran is now trying to semi-encircle Israel with proxy militias like Hezbollah — in Lebanon, Syria and Western Iraq, armed with precision-guided missiles."
Only in the NYT comment section could the above be characterized as Iran "defending themselves".
If some of it is going to be about "out crazying" each other, I can only say that only one of them has used suicide brigades in a war, except that next time they probably wont keep that sort of thing to the battle fields of the Mid East only. The Israelis should probably look for back channel solutions with Iran. Their new found Arab friends are already doing that and so is, in-effect, the US.
1
The only reason any of the constituents surrounding Israel have teeth is because we still value their oil (and gas). In fact, the oil and gas on which they sit atop utterly maintains them and is the resource that makes them relevant and scary.
You want to know the best way to tame Iran? Make their oil and gas non-essential. If they can't sell their oil and gas, then their money dries up and they will be forced to be more democratic to maintain a peaceful citizenry.
How do you make their oil and gas non-essential? Help expedite the transition to renewable energy and to electric cars. Trump doesn't understand that renewable energy and electric cars aren't just about combating climate change; they are also about combating terrorism and rogue states like Iran and Russia.
3
Seems to be missing at least one important angle that would make it an even better plot for a thriller ... if it weren't so real and so serious. I wonder who is helping Iran build those sophisticated drones? Could it be China? Could it be Russher? Certainly it is not some 400 lb guy sitting on his bed. My guess, Putin is the benefactor. Russia benefits most if there's a serious, long-term disruption in Middle East oil. Putin is playing 3 dimensional chess. Trump et al are playing tidily-winks, and losing nearly every day. Obama advised "don't do stupid stuff". Sadly, Trump is simply stupid about this stuff.
2
Under the heading: Crazy? Crazy like a fox. Has Trump calculated that he’ll need a Middle East war to escape his domestic disaster?
2
This article is not about Iran or the GCC states or even Trump's reliable though erratic stupidity. it is about Israel. Why not say so?
3
Shrill.
An unrestrained exhibition of prejudice.
4
Even without nuclear weapons, there will soon come a time when Iran and its proxies will represent an existential threat to Israel: imagine how much damage could be wrought if 500 precision-guided missiles were fired simultaneously at Israeli strategic targets from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Even if Israel could intercept 60% of them, 200 would get through and could turn Israel into a paraplegic.
This is why Israel has been bombing Lebanon, Syria and Iraq frequently over the past year: to SLOW DOWN Iran's encircling of Israel with missile bases for precision weapons, drones and other conventional arms. But Iran pushes forward, and will eventually amass enough firepower in these regions to massively overwhelm Israeli missiles defenses.
There may not be more attacks against Saudi Arabia. The Saudis will pay billions of dollars to the Mullahs to buy peace (and to partially offset Iran's loss of revenue from the economic sanctions). This money will go to purchase yet more high-tech precision weapons for use against Israel.
The "crunch" will come if Iran begins to enrich uranium beyond 20% and shortens the "breakout time" for a nuclear weapon. Israel will not permit this, and will mount a pre-emptive strike even without US assistance and even at the cost of a massive Iranian/proxy counterstrike.
The worst case is that the Iranians may force Israel to nuke Tehran if the US does not intervene to stop fighting which Israel can no longer endure (but the US will step in).
1
@Gualtiero They can't fire 500 precision drones simultaneously, no one can because each missile needs a pilot somewhere to pilot the drone.
"The chickens are coming home to roost."
From the destruction of the Iranian democracy in 1953, to the destruction of Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Gaza, and the deaths and destruction of a 100 million lives throughout the middle east, finally a glimmer of recognition of what we have wrought.
I blame the Israeli Zionists. They want a Greater Israel and before that can happen, every healthy nation in the middle east must be subservient or destroyed.
Want a roadmap? Just read the "Project for a New American Century" (1997) authored by a familiar crew of pro-Israel American neocons. An early victory for this crowd was convincing Bush that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. That was $6 trillion ago, and it was our tax money.
It has been evident to careful observers that the Iranians are the adults in the middle east. They are not bending under American threats, they did not surrender during the 8-year American sponsored Saddam war of annihilation (1980-88), they are quite literally defending themselves which every nation, every member state of the UN, has full rights to do. That goes for Yemen, too.
What next? Force Israel to accept the Arab Peace Initiative of 2001. Or, else, force Israel and all other states in the region to abide by all the UN Resolutions on the Israel-Palestinian conflict, starting with UNR 194 (or before, I am not sure).
Force? Yes, money talks.
6
Written by someonw who obviously never been to the Middle East nor studied the history of middle east. What a weak attempt to paint a bad image of Iran. Maybe he should pay the former US Embassy in Tehran a visit and seek the truth.
3
Persian proverb: “ a smart enemy is better than a stupid friend!” Why don’t they ditch the Americans who have done nothing but raise havoc in the region to sell arms. Give diplomacy a chance: form a collaborative alliance between Iran, Israel, key Arabs and Turkey. With all the talent, technology, natural resources and young population that region could be a powerful economic hub. For starters Iran has a severe water shortage problem. Israel has great technology in water creation. Take it from there!
1
Netanyahu should have learned his lesson: Relying on Trump is foolish. He will forget his friends when it is convenient for him to do so. His promises hold as much water as a strainer.
2
Message to the whole world. Donald Trump wants to be your friend. Even if you abuse every human right known to man. But if you are shown to be a loser; and we can find more profit in dealing with your (and former U.S.) enemy; because they look like winners and are willing to make a deal with the devil like Trump is forever willing to do; you too will be thrown under the Trump bus in a New York minute. After all; it`s all just business; Right?! Recalculating, recalculating, recalculating...By the way; ask the Kurds how much loyalty you can expect from Trump!
1
Krugman's useful idiots analogy is becoming rather prophetic.
Useful Idiots and Trumpist Billionaires
Greed, ego and willful blindness at the top.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/opinion/trump-billionaires.html
I'm not so sure that Trump's change in behavior towards Bibi, is just because Bibi lost. There seems to be a fairly clear pattern here with Russia, Russia's alliances, and Trump. I mean, was the objective really for the sanctions to work (when they clearly were not) or was there another reason for backing out of the deal with Iran?
Now, they are all moving into Syria unrestricted...Perhaps the plan was moved up a bit due to Trump's sudden problems at home, I mean this decision was rather sudden, but there is a pattern here.
Now, I am reading that the Trump administration is going to announce an exit from "Open Skies" treaty. The treaty allows 34 member states to conduct unarmed surveillance flights over one another's territories and could affect the American military's ability to conduct aerial surveillance of Russia. The treaty is used to help verify arms control agreements.
Can the writing on the wall be any bolder - or is it just me?
2
Bizarre. NYT always publishes the 'truth', as seen without evidence, and ignores even the recent past. What about the agreement pullout, the sanctions, the embargoes, etc. They will kill people in Iran. Friedman's idea is the Iran is encircling Israel? Really? It seems different to a no nothing like me, but coming from a no nothing like Friedman, it must be true.
2
No surprise. Exactly what happens when what used to be 'the world's policeman' and last resort for peace, freedom and leadership has been corrupted by a narcissist and his sycophants for their self-serving needs instead of their country's.
Anyone but Trump.
Vote.
No mention by Mr Friedman of the Iranian connection with Russia (Putin is grinning his Cheshire cat smile) for the missile technology that was key to the surgical strike on the petroleum facility.
Nor the hypocrisy of Saudi Arabia in being a "victim" in a world which is victim to the petroleum technology they feed their ambitions on.
I expect better from a Pulitzer Prize winner.
2
With this current occupant of the White House, a Middle Eastern catastrophe is very possible. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, this man doesn't know what he doesn't know. All he says is he has his gut feeling in the moment. Really it's just his standing orders from Putin.
I think that the American military is going to be unilaterally withdrawn completely from the area and then we will just leave them all to fight it out. Under the watchful, gimlet eye of Putin, of course.
The backstory here is being missed by the writer. The overarching plot is being hatched by Putin and the president dare not defy his handler, for fear of financial and sexual Kompromat being published, for all the world to see. This, to him, is so scary that he will sacrifice anything to avoid humiliation. He has already sullied our reputation abroad with his clownish faux pas. He would certainly throw any person, or country, under the bus rather than let his financial and/or sexual deviance be exposed.
I believe that the biggest fear in his mind is to be exposed for what he truly is - a grifter and a phony.
1
Wow, maybe trump should not have torn-up the pact...but that is another story.
1
One of the best articles on the Middle East that I ever read.
It is an illusion that Israel can forever stay stronger than its neighbors combined. Sooner or later it will need to come to terms with its environment. That will mean: stopping the theft of Arab land, stopping destabilizing neighboring countries and stopping considering genocide as a serious foreign policy option (see Friedman's threats regarding Lebanon).
5
@Wim Roffel
"...and stopping considering genocide as a serious foreign policy option (see Friedman's threats regarding Lebanon)."
So Hezbollah and Iran can attack Israel but if Israel were to retaliate, you consider it "genocide as foreign policy". The double standards are mind-boggling. This is exactly why the Jews need their own state with a strong military.
Mr. Friedman is quite confident he knows the source of the drones or missiles. Not even Uzi Even claimed certainty about that.
A more fundamental lesson faces us: Iran is poor and repressive but it is not scientifically and technologically backward like the desert Arab countries. It has good capability, like Israel, if not at the same level.
1
"Drone wreckage discovered in Saudi Arabia shows that the Iranians are manufacturing and operating drones so advanced (with jet engines and significant stealth capabilities) that they do not lag behind Israeli capabilities in this field."
Maybe that's because inside the Iranian cloaks there WAS Israeli capabilities.
2
Although there is no proof, it starts with a premise that Iran did it. What is Israel did it to finger Iran? They have the technology.
1
Translated into Arabic, Trump was saying to the Gulf Arabs: “I forgot to tell you. I’m only interested in selling you our weapons — not using them in your defense. But don’t forget to stay in my hotel when you’re next in D.C.! Operators are standing by.” this sums up trump's idea of leadership, loyalty program, profit sharing, racketeering, family business - no one else need apply - mentality.
Get off oil, quickly....this would cause the whole region to "recalculate, recalculate, recalculate".
3
Iran’s is an awful regime. The ruling clerics have deprived at least two generations of young Iranians the freedom and tools to realize their full potential — one reason that a brain drain and drug addiction are rampant among Iranian youth."
Funny how Freedman doesn't spare an iota of lament for the women and youth of Saudi Arabia, who have to be far worse off seeing how they've been locked into a fundamentalist regime for much longer than Iran. Oh yeah, they're the good guys, somehow. You'd think he at least could have found a sentence to mention the state-sanctioned murder of one of his colleagues, but apparently that would detract from his mission to make the Saudis out to be a bunch of helpless doops rather than a bunch of thugs with titles who have overseen the bombing of a country literally back to the stone age, with thousands of civilian deaths and the outright decimation of a generation of children as a result.
Meanwhile, you have Iran lashing out because they figure they've got nothing to lose thanks to the crippling of their economy brought on by heartless sanctions designed to make the Iranian people as miserable as possible.
Thus far, I'd say the Trump-Bolton calculus is failing spectacularly.
2
What am I missing? While we try to deal with a maniacal, narcissistic, tin horn, ‘it’s show time’ in the Middle East. A pox on both your houses Republicans and Democrats. We have our Nero. The only question is whether we have the courage to do something about him.
1
You are so right in your comment: “But there’s far more going on. Those troops were also interrupting Iran’s efforts to build a land bridge from Tehran to Beirut to TIGHTEN A NOOSE around Israel — and their removal could help bring the Iran-Israel shadow war out into the open. This is the really big story in the Middle East today.”
I hope this Betrayal by Donald trump has shown the Israelites that he is NOT their friend as he loudly professed to be.
I disagree that Iran's actions are all about Israel. I think they are about the Sunni/Shi-ite conflict. Pretending everything is about Israel is a recipe for disaster.
3
If someone other than Thomas Friedman had written this article, I would be concerned. But since little that Friedman has predicted in the past has actually ever materialized (I recall his support for the Iraq invasion and later for Saudi Arabia's prince who had a journalist killed and dismembered), I'm not overly worried.
3
Tom, Scary stuff - on the other hand, just imagine a world where your cheer leading on taking out out Saddam wasn't successful.
2
Pretty good analysis but it's unclear as to what point this op/ed columnist is trying to make. Does he think that Trump is being canny telling our Mideast allies (?) that they can't rely on the U.S.? The thing is we all know that our clueless leader would never allow an attack on Israel by Iran itself to go unanswered (i.e., by the U.S.). After all, he'd have the wrath of Adelson to contend with- never mind that of AIPAC. And if Bibi and his West Bank Raiders get hit too hard by Hamas or Hezbollah we wouldn't allow that to stand either. And then, of course, there's Israel's nuclear arsenal (shhhhh!!!), the doomsday option that remains in Israel's possession. The U.S. needs to clear out of the Middle East- period. Excluding only the Kurds (whom we're presently in the process of abandoning) there's no one in the region deserving of our time or attention, our troops or our finances.
2
Iranian regime might be a rootless dictatorship, but they are not dumb, on the contrary the mullahs are extremely good at self preservation. They will not attack Israel, and they have no reason to. This is all Bibi's scaremongering, trying to keep his position and avoid jail for corruption.
2
thank you, mr. friedman, and the new York times, for publishing this piece.
So, when all is said and done, Russia will be there to pick up the pieces, give aid and comfort to whomever they choose and a hearty thank you to Trump for making it all possible. Oh, and China's Belt-n-Road Inc., will be handing out invitations to join the true path to the future. And the USA will just be ever so very yesterday.
2
Friedman makes the argument that Iran has developed advanced drones and missiles. How come the CIA and Israel's famous intelligence services didn't know this - and tell policy makers that the threat of a retaliatory strike somewhere in the Gulf was a high probability response to the "maximium pressure" campaign. Or perhaps they did tell them - and were ignored by Trump and his then overconfident allies (like the Saudis) who dismissed the Iranians. We need to recalculate what we know about Iran and how the Middle East works - and soon!
1
Let's face it, this is Hitler's 100-year war.
Around 1918 he was but a Corporal in the first World War.
Within 20 years he was the fuhrer of Germany and occupying European nations.
By 1939 World War II began with the invasion of Poland, bringing England and France into the fight. The United States and Russia joinedi in within a couple of years.
All along, the Jewish populations of Europe and Russia faced genocide. The Jews had left their ancestrial Middle Eastern home centuries before and spread across Europe and Russia, and became the targets of Hitler's war.
At the end of WWII, England, Russia, and America, unwilling to absorb the remaining Jewish populations, gave them the green light to occupy ancient Israel.
The modern-day Arab occupants of the land objected, as did the surrounding Islamic nations of Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, and others objected to the United Nation's plan.
That was 1948, and the fruits of Hitler's war started a cycle of non-stop warfare in the region, drawing in America. This has continued to 2019, some 100 years after Hitler envisioned the 1,000 year Reich.
In the meantime, with American evangelical political support, Israel developed nuclear weapons, while neighboring nations faced sanctions against their defensive efforts.
This was a foreboding of biblical prophesy of Israel populating the entire Middle East. Hitler's war continues to this date.
Now that we are energy independent, it simply doesn't make sense for the US to be in a never ending state of war in the Middle East. If Israel wants to ramp up its nuclear capabilities to defend itself, that's fine with me.
Iran didn't claim the airstrike. Show me the evidence that it was coordinated by Iran.
The best way to avoid war is for Israel to make very clear to Tehran that it will pay the ultimate price if it wages war through regional proxies. And then make good on that threat if Iran ignores the warning and turns loose its surrogates.
Once again Friedman is selling the Israeli narrative.
He sells the idea of "Iran's airstrike" while Iran is just one of several suspects.
He sells the the idea that only Iran has the capability in precision cruise missiles in the Middle East. Not so. The US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have the same capabilities. Individually or together one or more could have been responsible with the objective of demonizing Iran and promoting armed conflict in the Middle East. Could it be that the Saudis themselves conducted the attack with recently purchased US war technology to engineer a war against Iran.
He sells the idea that Iran is the problem in the Middle East as it threatens Israel. He makes no mention of the illegal and inhuman activities of Israel which Iran is helping to resist.
4
The real detente in the Middle East needs to be between Israel and Iran. It is the straw that stirs the drink of chaos in the region -- to include the root cause of our courting objectively terrible Sunni allies who are an affront to our liberal values. Alas,when "Death to Israel" is your State mantra, tangible deescalation seems impossible. Regime change in Tehran is the only way things change -- and that may never happen. If we're being honest with ourselves, the nuclear deal was never really going to work as a long term solution. Iran is a nation run by religious zealots. They are hellbent on destroying their Sunni neighbors and Israel. They scoff at freedom and due process. They employ secret police to torture their dissidents. Some regimes are simply not worth reasoning with.
The accuracy of these drones is also their vulnerability. Such accuracy is only possible via remote control, i.e. pilots sitting in a command center somewhere piloting the drones. I have no doubt that will be Israel's next target.
It's scary because Israel has no friend in the Middle East, and it certainly wasn't because they extended their hand of peace and friendship, but the Arabs turned them down. Israel is a racist nation, and their actions, such as confiscating land in the West Bank, only causes more tensions. What next will it take for the sophisticated, advanced military might the U.S. supposedly has for the U.S. to realize it is not welcomed in the Middle East. It doesn't take any think tank to understand why Europe has pulled its military back home. And Trump's hostile relations with Europe is certainly going to placate tensions. Naturally, this is a good time for Turkey to jump right in, as well as for Trump to withdraw our troops from Syria. Assad has been so quiet lately, guess his participation would help, as well as Putin. Interestingly, maybe it is all coming together for the best.
If Persian Gulf states get excited and do something that they shouldn't, then they will regret that within 5 minutes. Iran will degrade them to the stone age, in a manner that they will not even find a single phone line to call United States for help.
Not one mention of the efficacy of current sanctions against Iran -- they're working!! Another way to interpret this crisis (albeit self-inflicted) is that Iran is striking out in desperation. Don't play their violent game (yet) if you don't have to.
Iran was so much better when our freedom loving Shah was running the country. The problems in Iraq and Iran are all thanks to the CIA getting rid of elected governments and putting autocrats in charge.
1
No Mr. Friedman, the really big story in the Middle East is not Iran's attempts to isolate Israel with a land bridge to Beirut, it's about the secret negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia to end their mutual hostility -- something that seems to have escaped the attention of the stable genius in the White House whose great and unmatched wisdom has removed every vestige of U.S. influence in that region.
1
I couldn’t agree more with your assessment Mr. Friedman.
To those of us who can read between the lines and don’t always trust what we hear and see, reality was obvious.
Sadly, the US is mostly to blame for the situation in the Middle East. American involvement has enabled Israel to ignore negotiations towards peace and compromise, play the victim game and continue apartheid. Having the backing of a super power allowed Israel to overestimate its power and become an authority in the Middle East.
The Saudis, like the Israelis saw in Trump a useful idiot and both used him to serve their agendas. Saudi Arabia was hoping to have the US settle its disagreements with Iran without getting involved themselves. The Persians are no fools and knew that Saudis didn’t want a war that could halt their only resource, the production of oil and they ignored the Saudi threats.
The bottom line is, America is using the Middle East conflict to sell weaponry and profit and the Middle East misread the US involvement as support.
A US complete withdrawal from partisan politics in the region, might cause turmoil at first but it might also end up forcing leaders to come to the table and negotiate compromise.
Knowing they are on their own, in a region where oil is their main source of revenue, fear and interests will be a great motivator. Kids grow up fast when there is no daddy to protect their every outburst.
1
I believe it was Thomas Ricks, in FIASCO, who said of the 2003 US-Iraqi war, something like...This war can't be won. The most we can hope for is the war doesn't spread through out the Middle East.
Well, ask the Syrians how that worked out.
Mr Friedman--like almost everyone else in Washington--got on board with the US invasion of Iraq. Now he is analyzing phase three of that war for us. Maybe he's right, but he didn't get the "Arab Spring" right and he certainly misread the Saudi killer-in-Chief.
Frankly, allowing the Turks to deal with Iran's highway to Lebanon works for me. I suspect they know exactly how to talk to the Iranians.
1
All this Thomas with a "Madman across the waters" (trump)
who has no idea of what foreign policy is, of for that matter reality. Great article as usual. Thanks
These horrific developments deserve a more precise and less cavalier heading than "Trump and Tehran Shake Up the Middle East."
1
Meanwhile, over at Fox News, they're getting ready to roll out the "War on Christmas" coverage. Soon, Trump will be obsessed by stories about nativity scenes in front of suburban city halls.
2
If such a thing should happen, we should expect to see all of the Evangelical Christians running joyful in the streets because the second coming and the end of times has arrived.
Trump will have fulfilled his promise to them.
2
Thomas Friedman paints a grim picture of the vulnerability of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey and the Emirates by reason of technological breakthroughs in drone and missile guidance in Iran. Mr. Friedman makes a case that the new technology is a gamechanger, but the ultimate solution he suggests is inevitable is regime change in Iran.
Since the scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal (primarily because it was a significant achievement by Barack Obama), there has been a ramping up of sanctions against Iran by Donald Trump at the urging of Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman and hardliners in the Trump administration.
Since the Iranian youths who are bitterly dissatisfied with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have no arms and tanks, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, answerable only to Khamenei, are armed to the teeth, the desired regime change will have to be accomplished from the outside.
Whoa! As memories of Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Douglas Feith and Scooter Libby fill our heads with memories of the regime change sold to America as the neocon solution to Iraq in 2002, we need to remind Thomas Friedman respectfully that he grabbed a tiger by the tail when he bought into that approach during the presidency of George W. Bush.
3
Oh yes let's make sure we keep pushing the be very scared of the Iranians and forget all the atrocities that the Arabs have committed and keep committing, they are now such angels and are need of protection. Instead of writing columns to keep insisting that everyone should come together and bring peace to the Middle East and push that idea, you keep writing articles to denigrate various people in the Middle East. Every country in the Middle East including Israel is as bad as the next one with varying degrees. The leaders all want the demise of each other, and the majority of the population just want to live with dignity and in peace.
“the Iranian Air Force launched roughly 20 drones and cruise missiles at one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil fields and processing facilities.”
Quite a statement to read first in an opinion column. Even the Israeli scientist quoted hedges his accusation.
And not a word about what would make Iran do this now. Maybe unilaterally pulling out of the nuclear deal and reimposing sanctions?
2
All Iran has been trying to say with the tanker incidents, the drone shoot down and the attack on the Saudi oil facilities is if you continue to choke the lifeblood out of me, before I die, there will be consequences... It appears the message has gotten through, hopefully now Iran will not have to up the ante.
1
And the Kurds are still in the way.
I'll bet that not one of the thoughts analyzed in this column will have been considered by Trump. His staff may be thinking about these things but I doubt that Trump wants to listen to any analysis and fraught decision-making. Not his style.
Could things be worse? I suppose it's possible.
Mr. Friedman, does this mean we should not be comforted by having the Very Stable Genius and his Extraordinarily Smart son-in-law in charge of Middle East policy?
Do not expect the Trump administration to understand the broad strategic implications of the actions of others.Strategic is not in their vocabulary.
Additionally if Iran can accurately hit locations many kilometers distant with their drones what is preventing them from migrating the same technology abroad to harm western nations including the U.S.
Perhaps that is what Iran had in mind when they threatened retaliation against the U S for any U S attack on them.
2
It all started, Mr Friedman, in 2003. What were you saying then? I forgot. Perhaps you would rather forget as well?
As to what is next? The Middle East turns out to be the Balkans of the XXI-st Century. The only way out of the quagmire, assuming there is a way short of comprehensive war that exhausts all participants, is patient diplomatic effort by the united front of all Western nations. Europe should actually take the lead in these negotiations because, like in the Balkans, they will be embroiled first. The problem is, that the speed with which the US has been imploding as a world power stunned everyone and created vacuum which, in turn, created this devilish vortex.
Trying to solve this problem through the calculus of raw force, or the spheres of interest, will lead to war. We have been there before. We need moral authority in the rule based world with all nations with some power to act, acting in unison. But, there is very little moral authority left.
War is likely. Get ready, if you can.
4
Thomas Friedman assumes that the air strike on the Saudi refineries was conducted by Iran, but gives no evidence to back up that assumption. He makes no mention of the Yemeni Houthis claiming responsibility.
On exactly what basis am I supposed to believe him and his analysis?
Or should I blindly follow his analysis into war with Iran?
@Jack Friedman does address the Houthi claim. He just does not find that claim credible given the sophistication of the weapons used in the attack. "The pro-Iranian Houthi militia in Yemen claimed responsibility for the raid. That was as believable as saying that Santa Claus did it."
This Iranian attack really exposed the ineptness and moral bankruptcy of the Trump administration. Trump is your friend only in the good times and when it is convenient for him. With no moral compass or even a basic strategy, he cannot be counted on when the chips are down. He is undoing decades of delicate complicated diplomacy that has largely prevented a middle east disaster by maintaining a semblance of a balance of power. Effective foreign policy is critical and without a leader who appreciates it, or even has a basic understanding of it, makes the world a much more dangerous place.
3
Just another illustration of how much damage Trump can create on an international scale. Middle Eastern nations need to recalculate on a regular basis as do American politicians and companies in light of Trump's flighty, ignorant and ever-changing policies. The lesson is you can't rely on either Trump's integrity or intelligence. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
2
Scary- right? Well I am more concerned about Trump’s head. He doesn’t AND will not understand the complexities of geopolitical problems/relations- ever. It can’t be explained in a single page with bullets.
A miscalculation is more likely to come from Trump’s empty head, i.e. lots of glia with an empty parking lot of gray matter.
Who is going to call the shots when a serious Middle East conflict arises? THAT is scary.
3
Informative article made possible through Friedman's inside Israeli connections. Yes, Trump made a big mistake canceling the treaty that Obama and some or our allies painstakingly negotiated. We now see the alternative to peace negotiations. But Trump does deserve some credit for not following through on his stupid bluff to escalate the conflict. Our mistakes in dealing with Iran can be traced all the way back to the Eisenhower administration, when the CIA backed a coup to overthrow a legitimately elected government that wanted to nationalize the oil industry in Iran. Both Democratic and Republican presidents then backed a terrible dctator for decades in that country and the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crises was an understandable result of these misguided policies. As for the drones that were invented by the West, it was foolish to think that other countries would not eventually build their own "smart weapons." Macron is right that Trump should reopen negotiations wtih Iran. No permanent peace can be realized until we acknowledge our errors in the past. Iran would never have become a medieval regime if the CIA had not intervened to overthrow a constitutional monarchy that up until that time had favorable relations toward the west and even changed their name to sound more European.
4
This is also one more reason that we have to get our sick democracy in order, otherwise we will continue to find leaders like Trump and McConnell that will continue to put the wealthiest power brokers in charge. Greed has gotten us here, we need to find democracy and sell it to the world, otherwise we can all sink into the cesspool of autocratic reactionary power pitches together.
1
My own thoughts are that Trump is following Putin's instructions to destabilize the ME even more than it already is to give Putin openings for his own goals and objectives. Russia is a petro state and if Putin's actions are successful, with Trump's assist, he could end up controlling much of the world's oil supply.
Watch Russia's actions in Syria. Trump has given Putin a birthday present by pulling out of Syria and abandoning our allies there. Trump is not the mastermind that Putin is regarding strategies and tactics. He simply doesn't have a clue as is obvious. So, who directs Trump's actions?
Who bombed Saudi's? Would not surprise me if it was Putin.
2
Its not just the Arabs who are frightened by the results of Trump's make it up as he goes foreign policy. We all should be! That painstakingly difficult deal we worked out with Iran doesn't look so bad in the rear view mirror now, does it?
I just wish the Republicans were the ones recalculating, but it already likely too late. Turkey has been waiting so long they can taste it. Is this is the disaster coming that we were all afraid Trump wouldn't be able to handle? and surprise, surprise, he's the one who instigated it.
If this is a calculated diversion for Trump, it may well work regards impeachment proceedings. Hard to pay attention to that if WW III breaks out in the Mideast.
3
This piece illustrates that Trump hindered by his short attention span, ignorance of history, economics, religion, diplomacy, geography, his personal greed, lack of education, distrust of our institutions is somehow a poor manager.
5
The writer of this Op piece gives the impression he is disappointed that the US did not attack Iran in the interest of the Saudis and Israel. But towards of the end of the article, he is comforted by the thought that Israel can do its own carpet bombing. No mention of the nuclear agreement that was scuttled, no mention of the economic warfare / sanctions against Iran. This endless state of hostility against Iran seems pathological.
3
Trump’s chaotic and ill conceived Middle East policies have been a disaster and now leave the region at the edge of a dangerous precipice.
A conflict between an existentially challenged Israel and a fanatically intolerant rigidly religious
Iran would devastate the entire region and lead to horrors and incomprehensible instability.
Trump has accomplished this all in just 3 years of
unparalleled incompetence. For that alone his Presidency will be regarded as an unmitigated failure and the Republican leadership as amoral and irresponsible fools. Their opportunism for power enabled him and reveals their total absence of intellectual honesty in conducting foreign policy and protecting our national interests. Trump with his impulsiveness and ignorance could never be trusted to handle complex diplomacy and have any role in making critical decisions about the security of this difficult region.
3
As in the Middle East, new vulnerabilities and risks abound through the globe, as do endless recalculations. No continent is free of such.
The world progressively smoulders under the "stewardship" of Trump and malignant ambitions of other leaders.
There was a great American president who launched two bold and promising ventures to improve stability in the Middle East by engaging constructively with Iran and bringing it closer to the more sophisticated globalizing world economy. One of these measures by this American president was a broad-based nuclear nonproliferation agreement tied into economic liberalization for Iran. The other initiative was a highly innovative, efficient, and well-thought military campaign in Iraq and eastern Syria using the Pentagon and its military to its best advantage in decades.
Both of these high-potential, region-improving initiatives were effectively destroyed in the first 24 months of the new American reactionary regime.
The right-wing government of Israel was overtly hostile to the great American president and exceeding welcoming to the reactionary American regime. The powerful and rich pro-Israel lobbies smoked the right-wing dope of "regime change" and the prospects of peace through a more militarized American foreign policy in the Middle East.
A lot of people flunked basic strategy -- and now we are where we are.
But we sure showed the great American president how wrong he was!
4
The US has no more right to muck around in the ME, than they do to invade and occupy Nebraska. Our continuing empire-building misadventures over there are idiotic and shameful.
2
A sobering analysis, even though Mr. Friedman omits the growing issue of the Turks to the north in terms of a larger power struggle amongst Muslim cultures in the region. It’s only been 100 years since the collapse of what at one time was arguably one of the great world powers.
3
"It's got a lot of real scientific talent."
So do we, but this administration and a large plurality of the country could care less about science, disparages it, denies its conclusions and don't fund education and research adequately that nourish it.
In short, our debasement of truly intelligent approaches is going to lay us wide open for another Pearl Harbor, except this one will be a lot worse.
1
It's not exactly surprising then to find the Iranian government less than thrilled about a hostile neighbor with nuclear weapons pointed in their direction. Israel has every right to be afraid.
It's like pointing a cannon at someone for decades only to blink and find yourself stabbed with a knife. Precision indeed.
The irony of course is the US gave Iran the drone. The RQ-170 incident launched Iranian drone technology light years into the future. Iran reversed engineered our technology and their latent potential manufactured a fleet. That happened in 2011. Iran is demonstrating that, yes, they are smart enough to reverse engineer a drone correctly. What did you expect?
The true solution to the Iran-Israeli conflict though is parity. If you accept that conventional warfare is incapable of regime change, you need to accept that the Iranian government isn't going anywhere. You also need to accept that the Iranian government will one day become nuclear. That's what parity really means.
The US had the power to set the terms of this transition. That's what Obama's nuclear deal was really all about. Managing the transition. Manipulating Iranians into behavior more acceptable to both the US and Israel.
Trump, in all his infinite wisdom, tore all that up. We've been in a slow motion slide toward crisis ever since. Trump is not only unwilling to manage the crisis. He's incapable of managing the crisis.
4
Whoever is responsible for the strikes should be commended for their restraint. The holes indicate that the munitions were limited to only puncturing the tanks, not exploding them. The strikes were a "message" indeed, but only a message. Next time, things could truly become explosive.
2
The Iranian regime is not pretty but then neither are the Saudi or Russian ones. It's time to recognize that the attempt to isolate Iran has been a complete failure just as the attempt to isolate Cuba. The reality is that Iran is the natural hegemon in the ME. It's a fairly sophisticated country of 85 million people and it's not going anywhere.
The nuclear deal that the Obama administration and five other countries (Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China) struck with Iran wasn't perfect but it was a step in the direction of normalizing relations. This of course was anathema to Israel and it's propagandists in the US (like Stephens who writes for this newspaper) who couldn't wait to destroy it, and Trump for no sensible reason tore it up to the horror of at least three of the other signatories. The other two were probably quite happy to watch Trump shoot the US in the foot.
Now the situation is much as described by Friedman. There is no way the US wants to get involved in war with Iran. What are we going to do? Kill hundreds of thousands of Iranians in bombing raids, send half a million troops to invade Iran? Of course not. The US needs to finds some way of establishing dialogue with Iran. Even now the Saudis and others in the region have woken up to this reality and are making quiet moves in that direction. Israel needs to do the same.
6
This article is about Iran and their smart weapons, or weapon kits. The assumption seems to be that the Iranians can and might supply those precision guided weapons for use against Israel. But how far fetched would it be to conjecture a rapidly disintegrating Saudi Arabia, with disintegration perhaps helped along by weapons supplied to enemies within? What then in the Middle East? And what if Iraq fragments at the same time?
It would be a novel idea for America to stop funding Israel, to stop selling weapons to the Saudis and the Emirates, to move its warships back to it own coast, to shut down its bases in the region and to let these folks resolve their own issues. Iran simply want security which it will never have with an American backed Israel and Saudi Arabia threatening it at every turn and with those countries having the weapons, money and logistical support from America to make really bad things happen. Perhaps real negotiations could be had between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel if the affect of America's obscene funding and weaponry were removed.
4
Inspectors were in Iran monitoring its military preparedness and restricting its nuclear weapons capability. All measures indicate Iran was complying with the 6 nation accord and the hardliners were temporarily sidelined in Tehran with the possibility that more moderate players such as Rhouani would gain even more control. Then, because it had former President Obama's name on it and Netanyahu had previously opposed it (we can assume also because President Obama supported it), Trump tore of the U.S. portion despite strong objections from U.S. (former) European allies. Welcome to lighting the fuse to Middle East war.
6
How about some solutions or at least paths versus simple observations?
1
@Rowdy Burns Maybe you should ask our dear “leader” that question. That’s supposed to be his job, not that of a newspaper columnist. Ah, the need for basic competence and trustworthiness in American leadership starts to become clearer...
Oil will remain useful....petrochemicals are refined for numerous purposes beyond powering automobiles. Plastics, fertilizers, drugs, etc.
However. 30% of oil/coal/natgas comsumption goes towards Power Production............
Consider this.
Take a cubic foot of earths surface....1x1x1.....and imagine it as a cubic foot of oil.
Then consider the amount of sunlight that hits just the 1x1 square foot of surface of that cube.
The amount of energy recoverable from the sun on that square foot of dirt is EXPONENTIALLY larger that the recoverable energy squeezed from the oil.
Anyone that tells you that Solar Power PVs are "alternative" or even "green" .....they completely miss the point.
The Future is Now.
4
I concur. By becoming truly energy independent, it would nearly eliminate the financial power of two of the most disruptive players in the Middle East (Iran and Saudi Arabia) and defang Russia. Unfortunately, due to lack of political will and our own greed, that future is distant. Regional conflicts have a way of growing much larger. Brexit and the volume of refugees flooding into Europe is creating a resurgence in populism, just as we see here and in other nations. And you don’t need more fuel for that fire.
First, what is going to happen to the Kurd and to Turkey? Most likely a long drawn-out guerrilla war, perhaps Turkey's Vietnam.
Second, the situation in the Middle East has been dangerous and unstable for over 70 years. Neither Mr. Friedman, nor John Bolton or Pompeo, nor Bibi, nor the various leaders of Iran and the fresh prince of Riyadh seem to have any idea how to do more than survive and repeat.
Can Israel and the Palestinians coexist? Can Saudi Arabia retain its economic power? Will Iran implode? Can Iraq become a well-governed society?
Before we answer these I think we had better get our own house in order. And the Brits need to do the same.
7
If Israel gets involved militarily, Trump will have no choice but to join the war. He moved the embassy and cheered on Bibi's other decisions regarding settlements and territorial claims as these were incredibly popular with the evangelical base. How do you think that base would respond if Bibi turned to Trump and said...."we are in a bit of a war here, can you lend us a hand" and Trump said "No We aren't getting involved in Middle East wars"? That would cost Trump the election for sure. Oh the Kurds. Americans don't really understand, trust, or care about them. Israel is a whole different matter.
1
The Kurds. Sadly we take for granted our best friends in the area.
I suspect if you polled the Trump base and asked if they would want the U.S. to send troops to help the Kurds if they were facing Turkish slaughter they would say no. Same question to help Israel in a,war with Iran and the base would not only want it, they would demand it. I would further suggest the base views the Kurds as just another Muslim group not worth defending.
This article does a great job of detailing the complicated interrelationships of the various nations and religious factions in the Middle East. Here's my questions: Does any of this matter to MAGA-hat-wearing voters? Does any of this matter to the three gentleman with red headbands with pictures of the Ayatollah? What can be done to engage these groups to gain a better understanding of what is going on in the world? As the complicated geo-political recalculations are underway more and more citizens of the world are looking for simple answers. MAGA hats and red headbands with pictures of the Ayatollah are manifestations of this.
2
I believe that another player who is not mentioned is involved here. That player is also in the background in the Trump move to remove troops from Syria. His name is Putin. Putin’s mission is to sow discord. His mission is to also raise the cost of oil. Oil is all that the weak Russia of 130 million people has. And make no mistake, Bibi is in lock step. His ploy to his people is that they need him to protect against the imminent threat of Iran. The relationship between the Jewish people and Iran goes back to the days of Cyrus the Great who treated the Jewish people with chesed ( kindness). The Israelis and Iranians should be friendly and cooperate. Their deep mutual history makes this an easy choice.
4
@Ira Allen -- There are many instances in which Putin sows discord.
There are other things he does too.
There are others who sow discord too.
In this instance, it would be in Russia' interests to raise oil prices, but it is the US that is doing the things that would raise it. those are US wars, against Iran (economic for now) against Libya, against Venezuela, and of course wrecking Iraq for a generation already. The US has crippled most of the largest suppliers. Putin has not crippled any.
In Syria, Putin has goals, and in Syria they are not about oil. They are about jihadi success very near his own restive Muslim areas, just a short distance overland. They are backstopping his only ally. They are using Syria for weapons testing the way Spain was used before WW2.
1
Mr. Putin is deeply involved in Venezuela. The regime was about to topple and its dictator was on the tarmac ready to fly to Cuba when Putin called him and told him to stay. Russians are on the ground there. Putin is mixed into every equation in the Middle East. He wants to act as the spoiler, and to undermine the West, especially US policy. And we have a fool running our nation and JV players playing in the Super Bowl of foreign policy advising him.
I don’t get Iran’s animosity toward Israel. They don’t share a border. They don’t compete trade-wise. I do get why Shia’s feel aggrieved by the Sunni’s. The Saudis seem a more likely rival. I feel bad for the Iranian people. They “coulda bin a contender”.
"In the early hours of Sept. 14, the Iranian Air Force launched roughly 20 drones and cruise missiles at one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil fields and processing facilities. The drones and cruise missiles flew so low and with such stealth that neither their takeoff nor their impending attack was detected in time by Saudi or U.S. radar."
They were not EVER detected.
Friedman is just accepting this from people making this up without any known evidence. It is a theory of what happened. It is just theory. Nobody claims to have seen any of this happen, nor to have reconstructed it from actual data.
Only the US and Israel make this public claim, and do so without any evidence made public. Even the Saudis won't go this far.
The Saudis just show junk they got out of the desert around the strikes, and decline to speculate about just exactly what happened.
11
I heard all about WWII from both my mom and dad because dad served in the U.S. Army during that time and my mom was in London, England.
I just don't want to see it happen here or anywhere in the U.S. and it's Territories and Allies. Even though we're closer to WWIII with President Donald Trump.
Someone once told me in the late 1990s. Before 9/11. That Republicans start wars and the Democrats clean up afterward.
7
"Those troops were also interrupting Iran’s efforts to build a land bridge from Tehran to Beirut to tighten a noose around Israel"
That is what Friedman really fears. It is all about Israel for him.
However, the small number of special forces along the Turkish border are not blocking that. That is happening elsewhere.
The Kurds are not blocking that either, and can't, unless a new Kurdish state is created much further back from Turkey, in a much larger area that sits on the Syrian oil fields and regions near Iran and Iraq.
Some Kurds do have that ambition, and the friends of Israel have an ambition to help them do it. They'd love to give them parts of Iraq and Iran too.
None of that relates to the Turkish border, which is far away from all that. The only connection is that it is part of larger Kurdish ambitions, to take territory from Turkey too. Hence Turkey is willing to fight that.
Now, if someone wanted to take a piece of another NATO ally, say France or Italy, which side would the US be on? But many of our foreign policy mavens want Israel in NATO and Turkey out. They mean larger redesign. That is why they protest this.
It has nothing to do with this move opening the way for Iran.
4
"If you think Trump’s withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria will make the Middle East more explosive, you’re correct."
Trump's staff has said the US is reassigning about 50 men, from the Turkish border to other positions inside Syria, positions that also work with the Kurds.
The US is not pulling out of Syria, nor is it abandoning the Kurds.
The US is just not going to assign US personnel as a trip wire along the border with Turkey.
That border with Turkey was not Kurdish before. The US moved them in. Before then, it was Turkmen. Most of them are now across the border, in Turkey proper, in camps waiting to go home, numbering near 4 million Syrians who want to go home from refugee camps in Turkey.
This is being mischaracterized, and especially so here by Friedman, who certainly ought to know better than what he has said here.
3
It is Trump's betrayal of the Kurdish militia-the US allies--that is the issue pertinent to Trump's Syria policy reversal, and not the Middle East stability question that is already in turmoil due to intense power play between various global actors and their regional proxies apart from the ISIS and al-Qaida terror Groups. In addition to this, Trump's policy shift will cede ground to the rival alliance led by Russia, which it appears that it was a conscious choice on the part of Trump to oblige Russia as a quid pro quo for the latter's help for his reelection.
2
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma -- A step deeper, it is about the US making promises to the Kurds about independence, promises it never could have kept, never world have kept. The US enticed the Kurds out of the autonomy deal they had with Assad, and the Kurds were fools to do that.
2
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma
Agreed.
1
As a result of that Iranian strike, Trump declares that he doesn’t want war with Iran and is even willing to talk with its President (but left holding the phone). And Saudi is also, now, saying the same (after bombastically claiming a couple of years ago that they would crush Iran).
That Iranian strike might even go down in history as the strike that, preemptively, prevented a war.
3
The strike on Abqaiq was extremely precise - no loss of life and relatively easily repaired damage. Lots of optics - Saudi oil production cut in half - but for how long? More plausible than that the attack was by Iran is that the attack was an attempt by elements in Saudi Arabia to derail the possibility of negotiations between Trump and Rouhani while continuing Maximum Pressure to force regime change in Iran. Under present circumstance Iranian weapons can be purchased at the right price by anyone.
The Houthis had more than enough reasons to launch an attack on Abqaig and their claim of responsibility enhances their position even if they were not responsible.
If Iran knew it had no responsibility for the attack the situation provides considerable leverage. After all, who would admit to a false flag attack?
Iran's President Rouhani proposed the Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) to address regional security. This proposal is receiving serious attention by Iran's Arab neighbors. Countries develop weapons when faced with attacks by hostile neighbors. Iran was devastated by one of the longest wars in the past centuries. Perhaps a million Iranians lost their lives. The IRGC was born out of that conflict. Iran is now at peace with Iraq.
The security of all countries in the region must be addressed including Iran and Saudi Arabia and Israel. There is no military solution possible. All countries in the region need to be talking to each other about their own security interests.
1
If neither side 'dares', it seems to me that we have a form of cold war, even though one side does not have nuclear weapons. Perhaps this is what Iran wants.
Dear Mr Friedman,
I think we can all agree that Mr Trump is right to avoid war with Iran at all costs.
Now, let's hope that whoever is responsible for this attack can further succeed in knocking over The Butcher or crippling his petroleum production.
2
After signing of nuclear deal, Iran complied with everything, relationships between Iran and US improved, but Trump and Netanyahu destroyed everything and are the only ones responsible for the mess in the Middle East. Do we really want another war, it appears that Mr. Friedman is pushing for it.
13
Mr. Friedman. As always, a great analysis.
Withdrawing from the Iran Deal, and reimposing more sanctions on Iran, was the biggest blunder. Does one expect Iran to go silent? Iran was kept in their place with the Iran Deal. Now they are going rogue, and gaining head line news.
When Iran targeted the oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, that was calculated and strategic. Iran's foremost enemy or adversary is Israel. However, choosing to hit the Saudi Kingdom instead, Iran is showing the region and the world what they are capable of. The fact that the Saudis did not respond, shows it would be unwise to challenge the Iran calculation.
We have also to take into account the most recent decision for a US pull out from the northern sectors of Syria. With this decision, Iran is one of the immediate beneficiaries. Iran is fast expanding its influence in the Middle East. Another beneficiary, Russia vying to take over a major player status in the region. Russia and Iran are old allies, together with Syria. Russia is growing their influence in the region, ably supported by Iran.
With an unclear US foreign policy in the Middle East, our traditional allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and others are now placed in a situation, with many unanswered questions.
6
This is getting scary enough that Iran must be recalculating too - what is Israel's nuclear threshold? How far can Iran go before triggering that. In another year, Trump will have not only doubled and tripled North Korea's nuclear capability replete with submarine launched missiles but also introduced Iran's own home grown nuclear weapons. Trump is not merely the worst President in all of US history, but the most dangerous one for this nation and the world.
24
I agree (but why don’t the Republicans see it too?).
Thank you for explaining this chessboard. It never ceases to amaze how complex the region is and how pushing one piece has such a ripple effect.
6
I'm surprised Mr. Friedman did not also address a significant larger context. Namely, what does this do for Russia? It is beyond peculiar that every foreign policy move and many domestic policy moves Trump has made has weakened the US vis-a-vis Russia.
Republicans need to open their eyes to the wanton destruction Trump is doing to our international security. If they don't want to complicit in our diminution they need to act.
12
This has nothing to do with Trump. It just happened on his watch. This is the result of nearly 30 years of failures and defeats of the US in the Middle East, starting with the failure of the 1991 Gulf War to overthrow the Iraq regime and establish a "stable" domination by the US. Then the 2001 and 2003 invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq ended in greater defeat amid widespread anger and unpopularity in the US, and unleashed instability throughout the entire region. Iran, the target of ending US hostility, benefitted from each debacle and at the most perfect moment imaginable struck and revealed the empire's nakedness. The limits of US power were being clearly demonstrated, as Saudi is driven into total defeat by Yemen. US military doctrine of fighting two major wars simultaneously has been defeated and now the US is forced to retrench as it focuses all its military, political, economic weapons on China to prepare for what the Ruling Rich and their twin parties perceive as its existential conflict to defend US world domination. Yes, there is massive 'recalculating' all across the world as every puppet, ally, and enemy take stock of US weakness. The borders of the Roman Empire are being pulled back and redrawn as the US rukers prepare for more war.
4
It has everything to do with Trump. His abrogation of the nuclear treaty with Iran provoked the reaction of Iran.
Who do you think we are? Rulers of the world? Get real!
Not one mention of Trump's unnecessary withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the expansion of America's crippling sanctions in this column. Are they not the equivalent of an economic war against Iran? Would any country sit still while being economically strangled?
We lost more than a verifiable cessation of Iran's nuclear ambitions, thanks to Trump. We lost the opportunity for an economically successful Iran to do what most successful nations do, reject aggression in favor of growth, which is fostered by stability, And stability in Iran might have meant moderation domestically as well as internationally.
We lost that opportunity thanks to Trump's America First foreign policy, which we now know is really a Trump First policy.
27
Friedman is right, if any of these accurate missiles target Israel, Israel will instigate Shock and Awe like the Middle East has never seen. The end result will be destruction of Lebanon, Gaza and Syria if they participate. Then Iran will have a choice, risk nuclear war or stop attacking Israel.
6
Guess what country attacked, unprovoked, a US Navy ship in the Middle East during the Johnson administration? Hint: it starts with an I and is not Iran.
Why is the writers bias for his co-religionists so obvious? I suggest better camouflage, words chosen to obfuscate, hints rather than heavy handedness. Really! This is the NYT, and you must try harder.
13
If Israel wants to "carpet bomb" Lebanon, or shoot precision missiles at Iran, then I say fine. However, keep MY country--America--out of it. No American troops, no American intelligence, no American resupply. If Israel wants to start this kind of war, then go it alone.
We don't need no more 1973 oil embargoes (that wrecked our economy because of Israel support). We don't need no more 9/11s (that wrecked our freedoms here at home because of Israel support). And we certainly don't need no more Iraq invasions/wars (that wrecked my kids future from all the war debt because of all the neocons and their desire to take out Iraq to support Israel).
There simply is no real benefit for America in fighting Israel's battles or Israel's wars.
39
you don't seem to be fan of the state of Israel? did I get it right.
9
“…The Iranians, or their proxies, showed that they can hit specific targets with great precision and from a distance of hundreds of kilometers. We have to accept the fact that we are now vulnerable to such a strike.”
Maybe it’s over-stating the obvious, but when an adversary sends you an invitation to join them in battle, you’re being led into a trap. If Iran has drones which are as advanced as those utilized by the IDF, then their technology is on par with ours as well.
“The ruling clerics have deprived at least two generations of young Iranians...one reason that a brain drain and drug addiction are rampant among Iranian youth.”
Another reason that drug addiction is as rampant as it is in Iran, is because of our continued presence in Afghanistan. I don’t imagine that the leadership in Tehran are not cognizant of this fact, either.
2
I, for one, am heartened that after decades of inspiring and sending their youth out into the world for such bravery as attacking unsuspecting civilians at malls, pizza parlors, bars, and sporting events (often against the countries that buy their only product that's worth anything), the Saudis are showing their courage once more by doing nothing, and hoping the Americans might do something about it.
9
I like this analysis, probably accurate. But it brings one basic question I would love to bring up with the Iranian leadership. What's all this with Israel? Really, what is your problem? A country several hundred miles away, is it a threat to you? The Palestinians are your keen and you want to help them? I certainly can see that and Palestinians and their plight have my support. Now, you Ayatollahs, think about the money you have spent on all this. Wouldn't it have turned Gaza into an economic hub like Singapore? Why did not you do that instead?
7
Hate to say this (ok, not really, lol) but i am laying the blame for this squarely at the feet of The Donald. His determination to abdicate US responsibilities and peace-keeping roles in the Middle East no matter which ally gets hurt, has emboldened Iran to the point where they now have no qualms at all about potentially starting a war with their arch-rival Saudi Arabia. If there is an all-out shooting match in the region, Herr Trump's unbelievably inept diplomatic efforts (plus his virtual destruction of the Department of State...) will be to blame far more than any of the participants.
2
I thought the attack on the Saudi Oil fields was pretty funny. I hope nobody got killed. I guess the Iranians said, "If the world won't buy our oil, they won't be buying Saudi oil, either." And I don't blame them, either.
With all the advances in aeronautics, guidance systems, electronics, etc. that we've had over the last 40 years it wasn't going to be long before those technologies would become readily available to most of the nations of the world.
So, all this talk about bombing Iran back into the stone-age is ludicrous. As was pointed out, Israel realizes that their nuclear reactor complex is now susceptible to attack. And even a limited attack with a limited corresponding response is not a valid option.
10
First, Trump is a warmonger nonpareil and now he is a coward non-warmonger!
Make up your mind, Friedman
5
There is more mischief Iran is doing than reported here. Such as Iran instigating Shia militias in Iraq to oust American troops.
From Le Monde, one day ago
These all-powerful pro-Iranian Shiite militias who want to oust the Iraqi Americans
The all-powerful pro-Iranian Shiite militias who want to oust the American troops from Iraq
These powerful militias are integrated into the Iraqi security apparatus but their leaders swear loyalty to Iran. They continue their rise to power and worry the Western coalition.
The former deputy of Ramadi still remembers the dinner at Barham Saleh, the President of the Republic of Iraq, organized in honor of Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran. "Larijani recognized that Iran would never have imagined that the United States would give him such great gifts by intervening in Afghanistan in 2001, and especially in Iraq in 2003, to overthrow his enemy, Saddam Hussein," Jaber recalls. Jaberi, former Sunni elected official of western Iraq.
Since then, thanks to a vast network of political and paramilitary relays, Iran has turned Iraq into its backyard, a territory for her safety, a placet where Tehran's influence now seems irreversible. A neighbor who, never again, would pose a threat to the Islamic Republic.
Le Monde
3
The Mideast is going to hades in a hand basket. The US has failed to retaliate for the attack upon Saudi’s oil field. The withdrawal from northeastern outposts will enable Iran’s plot to attack Israel and allow Turkey to attack the Kurds. If Obama was only more aggressive as Clinton and used our military to intervene in Syria, all of this would be avoided.
Is our Mideast influence on the decline because of we did not use enough military action?
Is Iran’s bridge going through a tumultuous Iraq that is rent with ethnic hatred and violence and bypass 112,000 US soldiers already in Iraq. Does the repositioning of 50 soldiers make the bridge more likely?
Nikolaos Van Dam in Destroying A Nation wrote the mistake the US made was not sending a quarter million soldiers, but cutting diplomatic ties with Damascus. Our presence would have kept channels open, it may have ameliorated some of the violence or gave us input into a settlement.
John Mearsheimer in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics makes a strong argument that a great power has trouble in extending its reach across oceans. Relying upon surrogates is an option.
Turkey may destroy the Kurds, but not likely to take on Iran. The Gulf kings cannot defend themselves with our arms. They want our soldiers. Israel has peace on two of its borders. Neither Syria nor Lebanon pose an extensional threat. Iran is “a bridge too far.”
Friedman’s concern should be about decades of failed US policy, not imaginary bridges.
3
Enough about Israel. Israel can take care of itself, and they don’t even need to - they have our unconditional support.
3
$7,000,000,000 into Iraq/Afghanistan!! I totally disagree with Trump, but on this- we need to sit it out! no need to barrow more money we don't have (from china) and spend it in pointless wars that are unwinnable. at some point, people in the area have to figure it out on their own. and maybe with less outside involvement, they will!?
2
Once the war is over, maybe President Trump and his GOP backers will be able to green-light several of his high-end hotel/condo towers to be built on the ruins and Mike Pence will personally bless them.
3
George Bush Junior (and his brain, Neo-Con, Dick Cheney) destabilized the Middle East with their phony WMD trumped-up (excuse the expression) short-term political strategy of winning the 2004 election. ("We're at war now...you can't say anything or you're a traitor...support out troops.")
Now, you've got a reality-TV host and seller of frozen steaks and long neckties running your foreign "policy." Same strategy though. Make an international mess and then: "You can't say anything - we're at war - or you're a traitor."
Netanyahu is Trump's brain. And it's not a bad brain if you're an Israeli. But Iran settled the Saudi's hash with their cruise missile attack on the oilfields.
The Iranians are not complete idiots or impotent as the American TV star provokes them unnecessarily.
10
What it exposed was the incompetence of Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. and Israeli hubris.
Carpet bombing civilians in the Shiite suburbs of Beirut
and missile strikes on Iran will only lead to escalation and unless Israel uses a nuclear weapon against Iran demography and ability to absorb pain and still fight back favors Iran.
Israel might consider diplomacy with Iran for the Democratic president who succeeds Trump in 2020 is not going to war with Iran to save Israel.
6
This is consistent with the Trump Administration's policies apparently designed based upon the Christian belief in Rapture and a desire to create Armageddon in the Middle East. Of course, an aspect of Rapture is the Christian belief that Jewish people will accept Jesus Christ and their Lord and Savior of be put to death. While I don't believe in Rapture, the belief is about the elimination -- erasure -- of diversity. This is a central theme in the Trump Administration. And, I, for one, can't think of anything more antisemitic than the belief that Judaism will cease to exist and enacting policies designed based upon such a belief.
11
The Saudis have not retaliated. The Turks are reaffirming their ongoing relations with Iran. The bombing was clearly intended to settle a score between Iran and the Saudis. And the bone of contention is likely Saudi aggression in Yemen.
What Trump or the Israelis may make of this is mostly beside the point. A precision bombing of Saudi Arabia with a precise purpose is not a show of force. It is a military attack with a military purpose. If Israel’s GPS is resetting, it ought to get a new one that understands that the settling of a score between Iran and the Saudis was not designed to intimidate the fabulous military arsenal of Israel.
6
So, this is what happens when the U.S. stops being the Middle East referee. Who coulda thunk? God help the Isrealis. Fools to the left, jokers to the right, Bibi stuck high and dry.
3
Please stop saying "Republican Guards" ! ...... You're mixing up countries and looking uninformed.
It's Revolutionary Guards.
Better yet, Use their real name : Pasdaran
Merci.
4
We can all assume that trumps pullout in Syria is not well thought out but reactionary besides it provides the media with another distraction while trump is trying to undermine his impeachment. It is just the conman's shell game that he repeats over and over again.
I think that your analysis is spot on Mr. Friedman. If Bibi and company had not been so focused on stealing Palestinian lands in the West Bank and made an attempt to make the Palestinians more inclusive then perhaps Iran would have failed to enlist them in their battle with Israel. But just what have the Palestinians to lose at this juncture or the Lebanese stuck on a narrow strip of land.
This will not end well. One can assume that Iran already has a plan in place or nearly in place to launch a drone attack on Israel. This will drag the US into another middle eastern war that has a "no win" scenario. The Israeli people will suffer and Iran may face annihilation.
5
"Iran’s airstrike on Saudi oil sites exposed vulnerabilities around the region."
At least for the time being, the aftermath of the airstrikes had the following effect on international oil markets: Zero. The price didn't rise, gasoline prices showed a little blip and then fell back to where they were pre-strike.
According to oilprice.com, six of the nine prices it highlights every day fell in the last 24 hours. Oil people are in a tizzy, hoping and hoping and hoping the price will leap into uncharted territory.
Well, maybe it will. But not so far. Better gas mileage around the globe and the emerging electric car industry has evidently taken a toll on oil demand, as reflected by the market.
I hope Israel survives and Iran fades, but for the rest of them, let them go on an internecine tear, go back to their kingdoms and newly fancy cities, and disappear from the daily news.
64
@Stephen Beard Do not mistake a warning short, for the full battle. Oil production in the Gulf will fold up like a cheap card table and the economies of Europe and China along with it. Now consider the possibilities for global war.
10
@pinetree -- You may well be right, but aren't you tired half to death with the continuing drama in the Middle East? Caused large by our hand?
That turmoil seems, at least for the time being, to have had little effect on oil prices.
If what you see -- oil production collapsing like an empty suit and war on the horizon -- we'll deal with it one way or the other.
4
@Stephen Beard
I hope IRAN survives and ISRAEL fades, but for the rest of them, let them go on an internecine tear, go back to their kingdoms and newly fancy cities, and disappear from the daily news.
An added bonus would be a just settlement and a real homeland for the Palestinian people.
3
Whew...this is complicated. There were thoughts and questions that came to mind while reading this op ed. First, of course, is Mr. Trump. There are so many untoward consequences at the ready after the Trump-Erdogan infamous phone call. Much of the focus to date has been on the fate of the Kurds and a subsequent vacuum left welcoming a resurgent ISIS. I did not realize until now the threat toward Israel via Iran with its subsequent land "bridge" to more violence and possibly war. But Thomas is on to something. Mr. Trump does not like losers, and Bibi is losing. Add to this recipe for disaster, the probable ingredients of favors passed and traded between two dictatorial presidents, both caring not one wit for the Jewish homeland. (Jared, are you paying attention?) The other thought is that if there is a full-blown war between these enemies, Israel will win. But the cost will be great to the Persian people. Their leaders may be ruthless, but their culture is rich and proud. I end this with a question: Is there a correlation to be made between this present ominous unrest and our pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal?
94
@Kathy Lollock Yes. The nuclear deal was a step toward less confrontation and made moderates in Iran more powerful. Reneging on the deal undercut them and put the radical Islamic fundamentalists in control.
9
It has to do with the Trump Towers in Istanbul. Are you that naive? Erdogan’s call reminded Trump of the investments made on his name in Turkey.
3
@Kathy Lollock
I wouldn't be too certain that Israel will "win." In a war of 21st century violence a nation as physically compact as Israel is at a disadvantage. Further, anyone's victory will likely be Pyrrhic.
11
How great would it be if this crazy emperor made a deal with the Iranians and told Israel and Saudi Arabia to pound sand?
6
“We will hit Tehran. You will not sit out this war. And you will not out-crazy us.”
So the Israelis are boasting that they are crazier than theIr enemies. The boast has a long pedigree. Threatening irrational violence in response to political pressure has been an Israeli impulse from early on.
Moshe Dayan: “Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.” As quoted by Martin van Creveld, the famous Israeli war theorist.
But if Israel is likely to strike out in unpredictable ways, so too may Donald Trump, he of great and unmatched wisdom (isn’t that like just totally crazy?). He may actually have the nerve to double cross Sheldon and Bibi, instead of kowtowing which is all he has done until now.
How about NO war, NO regime change in Iran, and NO American soldiers dying in someone else's conflict? Now that would certainly be a new tack to say the least.
7:20pm
10
It’s easy to blame Israel when you’re sitting behind your computer in cozy New York.
The Israelis are rightfully terrified because they can’t afford to lose a battle.
Iran denies it had any role in attacking Saudi oil installations. And as desparate as the US is to come up with proof that Iran launched the attack, it has yet to produce it. So this column is more speculation than fact. Thomas Friedman is lucky he’s writing pro-Saudi columns. At least one unpopular journalist in Saudi Arabia ended up chopped up in pieces in the Saudi embassy in Ankara. Which brings up this question: Is Israel wise to be cozying up to the Saudis to keep themselves safe from the Iran/Lebanon axis? Can you really count on the Saudis? I look forward to hearing what Mr. Friedman has to say on that topic!
4
Ditching the 2015 Obama/US/European accord doesn't look too smart at this point. Rather than bringing Iran to its knees economically, it motivated Iran's government, army and Republican Guard into a lock-step military march that President Trump never imagined and has no idea how to handle. The U.S. imports about 500,000 barrels of oil per day from Saudi Arabia, a quantity that could threaten national security if compromised, yet President Trump didn't respond and has not mentioned it since the brazen attack. Israel is on needles, the Saudis are in disbelief, the region is destabilized, the U.S. seems paralyzed and Iran is emboldened. What a remarkable win for Tehran. The opposition never took the field. It seems to me American foreign policy can afford some misguided fender-benders in Europe, but the Middle-East is the wild-west and Iran is thumping its chest saying there's a new sheriff in town.
137
@Ralph braseth So you think it would've been better to give the Iranians a full decade to conventionally arm themselves, along with building what would be, after 10 years, a fully internationally legitimate nuclear arsenal?!
At least Israel will be facing off against a conventionally-armed Iran. An Iran with nukes is beyond the pale.
7
@JOHNNY CANUCK It postponed everything by 10 years. Perhaps it could've been extended another 10 years if Iranian economy had been doing well. Right now, that has gone away so of course Iran is going to do what the worst instincts are, just like the US right wing is lashing out against its death.
Unless Iran is modernised and becomes a proper democracy (as should Israel for that matter, though it is closer), there's no solution here. The 10 years is time to accomplish that. Regime change needs to come via Iranian youth.
The US started this mess in 1950s. So what goes around comes around.
19
@JOHNNY CANUCK JCPOA is an act of the Security Council guaranteed by the five permanent members plus the EU. Central to JCPOA is the most intrusive inspections regime in the history of the IAEA. Iranian president Rouhani even agreed to a more intrusive inspections regime that was anticipate later within JCPOA. The CIA confirmed Iran's full compliance with JCPOA to the Senate Intelligence Committee in late January 2019. Iran has no nuclear weapons development activities. With the full backing of Russia, China, the EU and the U.S. there is no possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons.
Resolution of the missile threat is a far more complicated problem, but it cannot be addressed as long as the U.S. is not abiding by the JCPOA. Resolution of the missile threat requires the development of a security framework for the Middle East that guarantees the security of all countries in the region. Israel has attacked the positions of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) that were formed by Iraq in 2014 to fight ISIS that threatened to seize Iraq and Syria. PMF receives support from Iran and includes participation by Hezbollah. ISIS remains a potent threat to all countries in the region including Iran. Regional threats like ISIS and missiles need to be addressed jointly by all countries including Israel.
Macron/EU working with the Saudis and Iran have the capacity to initiate a process towards a regional security framework serving all countries in the region including Israel.
12
"The Gulf Arabs can and will find a way to buy off the Iranians. Israel can’t. Israel has a real Iran problem. Beware."
If Israel grants Palestinians their freedom they can normalize relations with all their Arab neighbors. That way they won't feel so vulnerable from Iran.
13
"in response to any missile attacks, Israel will carpet bomb neighborhoods in Lebanon where Hezbollah’s families live"
How is it so easy to use this ugly, genocidal language?
Also, if Friedman thinks it's ludicrous that Yemen launched the drones and not Iran, he needs to check a map.
9
@Vive la resistance
It's not genocidal, it is self-defense. It is Iran and Hezbollah who would be responsible for resulting genocide by hiding missiles in homes and schools.
5
Wait... what real proof exists that the Iranians bonged the oil fields? None.
12
The Donald's got form as a fickle romantic and bromantic partner.
What's outrageous about those with the capacity to defend themselves defending themselves anyway?
I'm thinking more of the plucky Kurds at this time.
4
And we thought the Persians could not read nor write. A true shock to our sensibilities.
8
Unfortunately, Mr Thomas Friedman lost all his credibility a few years ago when he openly advocated for and espoused the virtues and liberal ideas of MBS... Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammad Bin Salman; who has since acted nothing like a butcher, and been responsible for the deaths of Washington Post Journalist Jamal Kashoggi and tens of thousands of Yemeni civilians. Let’s be frank here; Thomas Friedman was incentivized by the Saudis then, and he probably is now as well. Why should we believe anything he writes as anything but a mouth piece and PR agent for MBS????
20
Nobody wants war between Iran and Israel. The Iranians don’t want it, the Israelis don’t want it. The Iranians hitting Saudi oil, had a very legitimate reason. The US sanctions are strangulating the Iranian economy cutting it of its oil revenue. Iran needed (needs) to retaliate. It also needed to send a message to its neighbours: "you won’t let us sell oil? No one gets to sell oil then". I think it makes total sense. The sanctions and the US leaving the nuclear deal are the main issues causing instability. In the long run, the Islamic government in Iran will adapt to sanctions the same way bacteria adapt to antibiotics. And then you’ll have a superbug on your hands you won’t even know what to do with it. Time for America to learn not to keep repeating past mistakes. Normalise economic ties with Iran and peace will ensue.
308
@FK
Well stated. Trump is the cause of these recent instabilities by having deliberately knocked out the stabilizer. I'm not referring to the longer-standing instabilities, which the Iran nuclear agreement was not designed to address, but to the demolition of the nuclear agreement and the unilateral American embargo imposed by Trump for no discernable reason.
18
@FK "Normalise economic ties with Iran and peace will ensue" I'm not so sure. Friedman's right: the Iranian regime needs conflict or the threat of it to remain in power - also an internal fear apparatus. When economies start improving, the masses start gaining influence, they start seeing possibilities for their own prosperity and power. This would be a threat to the current regime. In this respect, I think the sanctions work well for them.
3
@FK how can America not repeat the same mistakes? Every four years a newbie and bunch of inexperienced people take over the government. All eager to repeat past mistakes by trying out their own solutions. There’s no continuity of a sound strategy.
6
Defending oneself against such attacks may be as much of a matter of infrastructure design as it is one of air defense.
A single massive complex sending oil into a pipeline, or a single giant nuclear plant, are extremely vulnerable, smaller, dispersed facilities and moving oil by rail, or, even better, road could limit the damage from any one strike and make each damaged target easier to repair, replace and live without.
All countries should be factoring this in to what were once purely economic decisions because of the risk of terrorism over the several decades any one facility or system has. In an especially volatile region doing so may be necessary to preserve one's sovereignty.
1
Where did the Iranians get the advanced technology to build the drones? Is China a strong possibility?
2
@Sean - Actually, you don't have to look too far to find out where the Iranians are getting their technology.
I did some googling after the bombing on the Saudi oil field. The Iranians already had a "drone" fleet. Years ago, one of our drones that was being used in Afghanistan landed in Iran. So the Iranians just copied that as a head start.
When you factor in that there is more computer power in a current day cellphone than what existed on the Apollo 11 space capsule and lunar module you can get an idea on how far technology has advanced. We have corporate America that is launching satellites into outer space. Pretty soon your children will be able to launch a rocket into outer space from your backyard. Not quite, but you get the picture.
Google "guidance systems". I thought you could "jam" the GPS but they have other guidance systems that don't rely on Google Maps (just a joke).
Designs for the V-2 rocket that the Germans used in WWII are probably on the web. It is just a question of making improvements.
And you probably have a lot of smart, smart engineers in the former Soviet Union who are will to work from home for a little extra cash. They are as equal qualified as our Boeing engineers.
Yes, it is a can of worms.
2
Here's a suggestion as to why Trump has abandoned the Kurds.
Russia told him to do it.
Russia's war in Syria was meant to drive refugees into Europe to create chaos. It worked. It has wound down.
This will ramp the refugee situation back up.
8
@Alan very perceptive about the refugee chaos.
I didn't think of that. But you can bet last dollar Putin told him to do it. That much was very obvious to me. Hence the Republican shrieking.
A major lesson to be taken from this fine discussion is that our nuclear agreement with Iran accomplished far less in promoting Middle East peace than many claimed. Precision conventional weapons have always been more effective tools of war than nuclear bombs that threaten but are effectively unusable.
3
@michjas - You are absolute right. Having nuclear power means you a subject to blackmail as was pointed out. Even’s conclusion: Operations at Israel’s “Dimona nuclear reactor should be halted. It has now been shown to be vulnerable, and the harm it could cause would likely exceed its benefits.”
Can you imagine nuclear accident in Israel like Chernobyl or the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan.
1
@michjas
A war using precision conventional weapons greatly favors Iran, which is 80 times the size of Israel and has 10 times the population. This 21st century form of asymmetrical warfare greatly favors the attacker over the defender. Israel will be decapitated if Iran and its proxies can successfully land 200 precision missiles at strategic targets. Given Iran's land mass, Israel would need to strike it with 16,000 missiles to have a similar impact. This means that an Israeli nuclear strike against iran is very much in the cards, and yet another reasons that the US will become militarily involved, no matter who is the President (even Elizabeth Warren).
I've been on vacation. When did Iran become 100% responsible for bombing the Saudi oil facility. It is now presented as a certainty in the news. What happened while I was away?
18
I am an old city boy who agreed with Obama’s Iranian Nuke Deal and ‘TPP’ Deals specifically because the foes whose behaviors we wanted changed, attempted without diplomatic and economic dexterity, can create significant blowbacks to USA
In the case of ‘TPP’ our debt laden economy and phantom wealth could not force China to do what’s in our interests-by ourselves. The proof of failure is how it’s going now.
And conversely with Iran our overwhelming total powers versus theirs cannot take them down without causing catastrophic injury to many nations on our side. And like China would include worlds financial structure.
As we see Iran and China, although suffering, are proving why President Obama made his choices. With attacks on Saudi refinery’s Iran or proxies showed how quickly it’s neighbors would be back on Camels than driving Sports Cars.
But Trump’s bombastic legions innately believe force will overcome the ‘thing’ that only realism can provides winning hands for everyone.
Thus Trump’s fantastical goals are expediting the unmaking of America‘s greatness.
10
What's the bottom line here? Cheap, accurate weapons are now available to everyone, the cost of war has been shifted to the defenders, the cost to the attackers is low. Everyone should now be talking to everyone else, they need to. Iran isn't going away, it was always the biggest player in the middle east, even in Roman times. Mr. Trump understands that in the end we want to make our arrangements with Iran, not Israel, or Saudi Arabia. We also don't need the Saudis, we have our own oil, so our strategic interest there is smaller now than at any time since WWII. Everyone should be recalculating. Even if Mr. Trump strikes some as a madman he is in fact an arch-realist. Reality is changing fast in the middle east; Mr. Trump is helping it along. Want to know why Mr. Trump is a popular president? Because he isn't bothering to play by the old, no longer applicable, rules. He's a man of present reality, not past, as are his political opponents and critics.
4
@Ronald B. Duke I completely agree that we need to engage seriously with Iran, and we, as Americans, need to acknowledge the role we played in debasing our relationship with them. Where we disagree, though, is with your apparent assumption that Trump is a strategic genius. I appreciate that he’s not by inclination a warmonger, but when he gets something right it’s more like a stopped clock than the product of a keen intellect.
5
The Middle East , the graveyard of empires .
3
It’s time for Israel to start discussing its own MAD policy. Ambiguity is passé.
2
Partly true, mostly a dooms day fabrication.
There is a theory floating around that Israel is running out of time while the Crazy is in the White House and is running out of options to get the Crazy invade Iran. As a last failed attempt, Israel hit Saudi oil fields so that Saudi and the US would fight Iran on behalf of Israel.
Mr Friedman, you stopped making sense after you staunchly supported the Iraq invasion by W.
7
There is no proof that Iran is responsible for the attack, and the Israelis are not to be trusted. They've dragged us into enough already!
Israel can carpet bomb all it wants, as long as it also cleans up its own mess. This is their neighborhood, not ours. What have they done for us lately, other than continue to cash checks for their welfare state?
As far as Saudi Arabis is concerned, Friedman should re-read his own gushing columns on MBS, then take a break from the Mideast and write about something else.
31
It’s all about Israel for Friedman. Maybe Iran is not pleased that a puny little state like Israel bombs Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and the Iranian homeland with impunity and has a long standing policy of promoting chaos and disorder in the ME. Iran is a major player in that region and it is understandable that it punches back after repeated threats and attacks by Israel and its American “proxy”.
20
@RL Groves
Israel is hardly a "puny little state." Little, yes, puny, no. The day Iran choses to begin a second holocaust of the Jewish people by exterminating Israel, is the day Iran is itself destroyed. And, the fanatical Iranian mullahs will have deserved it.
5
@Jim Smith
I wonder if you had the choice, would you allign with USA or Israel? Clearly your only purpose here is to cloud all criticism of Israel. All your comments here are critical of any Israel-critique!
7
The Republicans are running wild the facts leads to the White House Pres. Donald Trump picked up the phone to Ukrainian President to use political dirt on vice president Joe Biden and his son. It's time to act to impeach Pres. Donald Trump from office.
We public and the House and Senate has said this is not impeachable. Please read the law of the land it is impeachable and offensive to the American people. Republican Party and GOP have gone rogue against the American people. Is time for the Patriots to come out from the mountains the valleys in the hills of America and protests and remove the GOP Republicans from office they lied to the American people that they were going to serve and protect the Constitution of the United States the party of law and order the GOP are aiding and abetting a criminal president of United States Pres. Donald Trump.
Already this weekend after President Donald Trump talk to the president of Turkey their moving their forces in to slaughter the Kurds they serve with our American boys in the middle east to wipe out Muslim this and this is a things will giving them sleep well are Republican officeholders maybe you can sleep tonight as woman and children are being slaughter on the border of Syria what hypocrisy Republicans.
2
Kick the hornet nest just to see what happens.
A good basis for superpower foreign policy.
5
I wonder what Trump in his great and unmatched wisdom plans on doing if Iran and Israel go to war.
3
@Steve Trumps so smart he’ll buy up radiated land in both Israel and Iran for glow in the dark Trump Towers. The thing that should scare the pants off everyone is Trump when we have a crisis.
3
It’s amazing how Friedman repeats CIA talking points without any proof. Where’s the evidence that Iran struck Saudi oil fields? Apparently Friedman doesn’t see the need for evidence.
16
@Ken He is one of the Players in the equation of the middle east through Journalism, after all, he has a point of view that shifts from time to time that influences a lot of people, and has friends in higher places in all those countries.
'The first thing you do, kill all of the laywers'
Somebody said that once. We seem to be there.
I have nothing more to say. The US has ended.
2
"Here’s the background: In the early hours of Sept. 14, the Iranian Air Force launched roughly 20 drones and cruise missiles at one of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil fields and processing facilities. "
Iran did this?
We've seen no evidence to support this claim Mr Friedman Iraq Invasion Supporter. We've seen 2 weeks of claims.
Submitted Oct 8th 5:27 PM eastern
10
The Saudis finally got taught a lesson for their inhumane butchering of journalist, Jamal Khashoggi - by the Iranians.
Be careful if you do bad things. You just never know when and from where your comeuppance is going to come.
5
Really not enough here to definitively conclude that Iran did the oil field attacks. Given NYT's role in Iraq War misinformation, I wish they would demand more scrutiny from their writers than this
13
Still think the Iran nuclear deal was a good deal for the US, Tom?
2
Obviously, we do not possess “ great and unmatched wisdom “. And presumably, neither of us are megalomaniac, sociopathic, delusional fools, surrounded by lackeys and professional boot lickers. What’s the WORST that could happen ? Well, does anyone in the Middle East possess Nuclear Weapons, and the will and desperation to actually USE them ???
THIS is what happens when stupid people Vote, and others stay Home. 2020: VOTE. NO EXCUSES.
12
@Phyliss Dalmatian this is the smartest thing I’ve read including the column.
2
@DP
Thanks. And Cheers.
Israel will bomb Iran with nuclear weapons?
1
Doesn’t it all come down to antiquated religious conflicts stemming from in best light, two thousand to thirteen hundred years ago? When, if ever, will we learn to fight the existential threat that exists now as a planet, climate change? After all your extraordinary experiences and knowledge, Mr. Friedman, do you have any insight into why we are mired in religious battles two millennia old and not for our survival as a planet here and now.
Always, thanks for your amazing reports that no one else seems to ever relate to us. Why is that? Shouldn’t this be as important as our village idiot that nothing seems to stop?
2
@ElleJ In answer to your first sentence question: no.
“Every time Tel Aviv is hit by your proxies, we will hit Tehran. You will not sit out this war. And you will not out-crazy us.”
And make no mistake about it -What they cannot pronounce is:
"And if push comes to shove a ten megaton nuke will end all our existential problems with you once and for ALL!
Inshalla
1
@dave a perfect incentive for Iran to"go nuclear."
No, Tom, the mideast is not calm, it's a powderkeg you don't understand. Most countries are on the verge of civil war, tamped down by dictators, you know how that ends.
You advocated invading Iraq, you and neocons would love to invade Iran, easy to overthrow their hated regime, right?
Why did Saudi citizens kill thousands of Americans (not Canadians, Swiss, Swedes..?) wasn't it American troops in the mideast you'r so hot to trot over there?
And if we protect Saudi Arabia, isn't the moral hazard is they can do anything they want because big brothers behind them?
6
Where is proof that Iran fired those drones and missiles?
Sounds to me like another aluminum tubes story from the New York Times.
13
President Trump is following the right policy vis a vis Iran: Maximum pressure without useless pin prick bombing. Unfortunately visceral hatred of the president has led many not see obvious facts: Tehran is an expansionist power and must be contained, that means that the Obama deal was fatally flawed as it left Tehran with total freedom to expand its missile programme, which was Tehran's main intention anyway. How can the president be blamed for telling the Saudis that they must do the heavy lifting in defending their own interests?
And if anyone believes that this administration has gamed out these scenarios and recalculations so as to develop some hint of what's about to happen, they need to have their head examined.
The POTUS is once again taking a huge risk with other people's lives and livelihoods.
Were I advising the Kurds I might suggest that they release all ISIS prisoners and prepare to battle Turkey. Take a page out of Trump's own playbook, sow mayhem and hope for the best.
4
If anyone thinks that if Iran’s proxies target Israel with a large missile attack, that Israel will not retaliate directly against Tehran using their nuclear weapons and will not turn Southern Lebanon into a wasteland, then I have a very nice bridge between Manhattan and Brooklyn to sell to them. If Iran tries this gambit with Israel then the Israeli government will have no choice but to protect its people with the most powerful weapons at its disposal and they will not give any warning or seek a diplomatic solution. They may decide to incinerate Tehran only and then wait to see what happens, but more likely there will be immediate nuclear strikes on Tehran and on a score of military targets. Just saying!
5
I still have not seen a single report describing any injuries or fatalities for this so-called strike from Iran. Was it possible the entire work force was at lunch? I propose that it was a strike set up to frame Iran complete with mock confessions from the Houthis.
3
@Richard Savoie To me, the curious aspect to these missile strikes, no matter who launched them, was the low level of explosive damage: pinpoint accuracy but they only punched relatively small holes in some metal tanks? Not exactly Shock and Awe.
2
These circumstances call for leadership like that of Harry Truman, John F Kennedy, Theodore Roosevelt and Barack Obama. The people who thought enough about their obligation to the world and to their country elected them to office by voting. What will it take to get a voter turnout of more than 50% of those eligible? Or we betraying ourselves out of habit and complacency? I fear for the world and for our country.
1
I have no understanding of why Friedman believes Iran attacked Saudi oilfields.
Canada is at war with the Saudis and our oilpatch needs $100 a barrel oil.
We are sneaky and cannot be trusted and we have the technology we steal from Saudi's most reliable ally.
Marie L. Yovanovitch was born in Montreal where we are plotting the overthrow of America's legitimately elected Sovereign President.
While you build your wall on your southern frontier we are sneaking across your northern frontier by the millions. Meanwhile millions of Americans look to Canada to rescue them from your remarkable and brilliant leadership.
As we welcome in the 21st century we are hoping to prevent America's return to the 20th century when you were great and we were the frozen north.
3
I usually agree with Tom Friedman's p.o.v., but not this time. The Saudis and their Sunni Arab Sheikdom allies have been committing genocide against Shi'ite Houthis in Yemen and they are not friends of the U.S.
They smile and take our money and weapons. Behind closed doors they wish us death, so let them deal with Iran and the consequences of their actions. Not one American soldier should die for the repressive Saudi monarchy.
6
We sold the Saudis billions in defense supplies - Iran went through it with low priced drones at a fraction of the cost. They used their brains and now people have to talk. A good thing. It's developing into a "mutually assured destruction" situation(MAD), like we have with Russsia.
The Saudi prince got caught with his hands in his robe.
8
I'm a bit confused as to when it became official that Iran directly launched the attack and not the Houthis? Is that the official account now of what happened or is this hearsay?
4
Well, if GWB hadn't created the Iraq situation we might just be better off. That cascade has led to the disaster that is the Middle East. Trump and Netanyahu certainly are icing on the cake.
4
As one expects from Friedman, there isn’t a word about the US supported Saudi war on Yemen. A fairly typical example of murderous American meddling in the Mideast, something that began under Obama because our meddling has generally been a bipartisan affair.
If the attack on the Saudi oil installation leads them to pull back from their genocidal war and leads to peace talks with Iran, that would be a good thing.
5
Excellent piece on the complexity of the situation. Meanwhile, while our president is engaged in a game of checkers with his ultimate goal is to say “King Me”, the rest of the world is playing a complicated game of chess of whichTrump has no understanding.
4
In the immortal words of Martin Luther King, Jr. “Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men.”
6
Thomas Friedman (prime cheerleader for the disastrous war in Iraq) has now become very concerned about stability in the middle east, implying that America must do something to make things better. I would respectfully ask Mr. Friedman (or anybody else) to articulate exactly how US involvement in the middle east over the past 40+ years has helped expand democracy, promote peace, or improved the lives of those living there. Please forgive me if it is not immediately apparent.
13
Well Iran just let the world know its current capabilities. Noted. Can someone explain to me, however, why we shouldn't thank Iran for an action worthy of being considered a response to the murder of a US journalist? Iran may be a despotic theocracy with a despicable foreign policy, but I never cared much for the "Kingdom" of Saudi Arabia. All those princes, Pshaw. The only real Prince in the world died in the US in 2016, and his music will live forever.
1
The USA should let Israel fight their wars. As for Saudi Arabia I will celebrate in the streets when the place is in flames and the monarchy is being hunted by the populace. They will be replaced with a Sunni religious government even worse than Iran. And I am fine with that too!
2
Doomsday Clock at 1 minute to Midnight?
1
"Iran’s is an awful regime. The ruling clerics have deprived at least two generations of young Iranians the freedom and tools to realize their full potential..."
Or, fill in the blanks:
"(Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, UAE) is an awful regime. The (despotic oil sheiks, corrupt oligarchs, military dictators) have deprived at least two generations of young (etc, etc.) the freedom and tools to realize their full potential..."
If we are honest (and we are not), there is no intellectually defensible reason to call out the Iranians as being morally worse than their competitors. It's a rough neighborhood.
The Iranian leaders are not more corrupt and vicious than the Saudis. The difference is that we long ago befriended the Saudis in exchange for their oil and lucrative military contracts, while the Iranians threw out our puppet, the beloved Shah, and never forgave us for imposing him on them.
US policy in the Middle East has never been driven by anything more glorious than our official desire for resources, wealth and power. It's time to stop pretending otherwise.
Trump's impetuous withdrawal from the Iran nuclear pact and imposition of sanctions were purely designed to embarrass Obama. Trump is fond of Erdogan because Turkey let him build a nice hotel there; he isn't quite sure exactly who the Kurds are. Somebody told Trump that ISIS is no longer a problem, and he's sticking with that. Bibi cynically hitched his wagon to Trump's and now will pay the price.
Surprise!
15
Middle east as usual, except 1990's.
Why 1990's
During 1990's old actor's of politics in Middle east , has already been fight decades long futile wars , never ending conflicts.
Like Arafat, and Israeli politicians and high ranking army. inching towards some sort of peace, Except Iran proxies but then their voices somehow subdued.
Then New actors came, in to the stage, Rabin and Israeli PM assassinated ( unheard of, impossible happened) following things started deteriorated steadily.
Voila we are here, pre 1967 or 1973 tension high , one minute away from war situation.
then Israel won the war but never won peace, Today Israel will won against Iran but Israel and its advanced status is extremely vulnerable to anything which previously tolerated.
In short , We are at square one.
Let start, if you don't fed up already.
The political dysfunction in Washington has left the US military crippled. Deep partisan political division means the US is in no position to fight a major war right now.
However, the non-response to the attack on an important US ally is going to have bad long term consequences. It raises serious concerns about the reliability of the US as an ally. And the Iranian provocations are not going to stop. Appeasement didn't work with the Nazis and it is not going to work with Iran.
If the Iranians can mass produce their new cruise missile then they are going to have a very powerful capability. The ability to strike targets with 3 foot accuracy could cause havoc throughout the Middle East. These missiles are not unstoppable. They fly low and hide behind the hills so air defenses can't detect them until it is too late. If the Saudis had radar planes like AWACS in the air they would have been able to detect the incoming missiles and scramble fighters to intercept. However, it is expensive to keep planes airborne 24/7.
A major war with Iran is starting to look inevitable. This was a fairly predictable consequence of tearing up the Iran nuclear deal. The Republican party is directly to blame for that.
2
At 82, and well “beyond it”, I have long appreciated Thomas
Friedman’s national and international perspective and presentation. While I’ll leave any attempt at interpretation of
Friedman’s article today to better minds, I wish only to comment,
from a personal bias, on the active presence in the title and
content...of our “President” Donald Trump. (Maybe, more so,
I should say that my concern is that Trump is present and allowed to be present and in effect, at all, in our National and
International daily Scene.). I am, as a long- retired Licensed
Family Therapist and Protestant Pastor, troubled that we, the People, are governed by a man who has blatantly presented
himself as a free-floating chronic liar and one who does Anything
simply to “Win”. I believe Donald Trump actively and constantly
fulfills the Symptom list of a Sociopathic Personality Disorder.
Occasionally, a Commenter will use that term and once
David Brooks called Trump a “Sociopath” on PBS. In my life’s
Work, I counseled a few Sociopaths. “President” Trump is
beyond Treatment; we, the People, seem to be in Need of it.
5
With friends like Saudi Arabia and Israel,who needs enemies? Neither country has shown any interest in finding common ground in the Middle East. Each has only cared about their selfish interests. Yet we continue to arm and economically support both. We have simply allowed this nation to be used for their gains.
6
Donald Trump's endemic policy ignorance is a metaphorical match in a region crammed with explosives. Implicit in Tom Friedman's column is the incredible stupidity of the Trump administration's decision to withhdraw from the JCPOA, when Iran had met all the protocols. The reimposition of sanctions has severely damaged the Iranian economy, increased the sense of desperation in Tehran, and empowered the hardliners. The attack on Saudi Arabia and the increased chance of war in the Middle East, can be linked to the sheer idiocy of Trump's decision to withdraw from the JCPOA.
422
@Don Shipp. Let us not forget that he did not pull out to further some strategic advantage for the U.S. He pulled out, as he does everything else not purely for his private advantage, to put a finger in Obama's eye. The JCPOA was carefully constructed with the Europeans to avoid the kind of explosion we now see.
63
@Regulareater Trump’s father should have pulled out.
12
@Steven Well said.
Thank Bush, Cheney and the band of neocons for destroying the main buffer between Iran and the Sunni Arabs with the Iraq invasion of 2003, a military incursion ("accomplished"?) that Mr. Friedman supported. As bad as Saddam Hussein was, he at least produced a degree of stability that helped contain Iran to the east and the Sunnis to his west. Now that we have unleashed the whirlwind so to speak and Trump has sabotaged any attempt at détente with Iran by abrogating the nuclear deal, which could have provided an opening for diplomacy, it is too late to try to put the genie back into the bottle(lol). At the risk of appearing cynical; Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria; when has any U.S. military middle eastern intervention resulted in a successful out come? At least Trump, like a broken clock, is right sometime.
1
Iran has no modern jet fighters and its only has low cost air attack weapons such as cruise missiles and drones. Saudi spends five times as much on defense as Iran and it has several hundred F-15s and Eurofighter jets and many Patriot missile defense systems. Saudi could not prevent Iran severely damaging its oil industry several weeks ago. Iran is clearly the dominant military power in the Gulf. Without a massive number of U.S. forces to support Saudi Arabia, it can be defeated by Iran in the same way that Kuwait was defeated by Iraq in 1991. If an Iran - Saudi war happens, Netanyahu will get involved somehow if he is still the Israeli prime minister.
2
@Frank Hynd
Your right.
The Saudis can’t figure out how to use all those fancy war toys we sold them.
They rent their fighter jet pilots from Pakistan.
1
@Frank Hynd
To put it politely, the Saudis would have trouble finding their own you know whats without western military advisers.
2
Mr.Friedman, you speak convincingly of the explosive Middle East and the challenges for the players.Trump has seen the problems and decided to throw his lot in with Erdogan and Turkey and pull,our troops out.Who knows what our Secretary of State is doing besides traveling around Europe looking for support for conspiracy theories that justify Trump’s feverish push to delegitimize the facts of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.Everyone should remember that one of Trump’ s brags is that “ we” wiped out Isis.The Kurds with our backing contained Isis.He will never tell the truth about the Kurds-that is why everyone is up in arms because he has cynically abandoned them to the “ tender mercies” of the Turks and Russians.
19
From a Eurasian perspective it seems that a key to the Mid East is a functioning Iraq, which stands between, or among, Sunni and Shiite interests. Sectarianism may not be the whole story, but is certainly an important cultural and religious cause of Mid East conflict. During the Iraq War I always thought Israel and the NeoCons made a terrible strategic mistake in failing to support the economic development of Iraq, which with a strong economy of its own, and a fledgling democracy, would have had a beneficial impact on the region. Iraq is the lost key.
5
@Bob Fonow
Iraq is now essentially Iran thanks to U.S. meddling. Also, wait for the Kurds in the north of Iraq to spit off taking their oilfields with them. And, yes, Russia will be closely involved...
3
I do disagree with the title of the column that Trump and Tehran shake up the Middle East. Aside from past colonial interventions of the West in this area, including the toppling of democratically elected Mossadegh in Iran by the CIA or the war against Iraq based on a lie, I consider the close cooperation of the US with Saudi Arabia, both in Syria and Jemen, the most catastrophic energy of our time in the Middle East. To speak of an US betrayal of the Kurds in Syria is wrong in itself because it is simply against international law that the US is acting militarily in a sovereign foreign country without the consent of the respective government. I am also surprised that Friedman claims to know that it was the Iranian airforce that launched drones and cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia. He is describing the whole scenario of the Middle East in black and white terms, bad Iran, good Saudia Arabia. And the most absurd thing in my opinion is that Trump whom I consider to be a terrible American president has strangely enough at least one advantage: in contrast to other US presidents he has not yet started a fullblown war.
28
@C.O. "Not yet" is the operative phrase, it might cost him money.
3
Outside of his unholy alliance with the Saudis, PM Netanyahu has done little to develop alliances with his neighbors. He has pandered to extremists within the Israeli population, allowed settlements to flourish and has rendered the two state solution all but impossible.
Mr. Friedman's solution is not to work with some of the more temperate actors in the region to restore some semblance of stability. His solution is not negotiations and compromise from all sides.
His solution is to ramp up American military presence. Change nothing else. We should continue to enable and excuse Israeli settlements and Saudi genocide, in Yemen. After all, our military will be there to clean up the inevitable mess.
It is rather like insisting on rubbing poison ivy on one's arm before amputating the limb to treat the eventual rash.
156
You hit the nail on the head. Trump is lighting the fuse and doesnt even know it because he is fully ignorant of where we are and how we got here.
4
Trump’s Mideast policy is “Speak loudly, sell weapons, and don’t carry a stick.” Allies are abandoned. The end result will not be pretty. And the next administration will not be able to fix it.
5
The source of the evil is the Wahabis' Sunnis in Saudi Arabia. Where was the "West" when the Sunnis started to slaughter the Shiites in the southern part (Yemen) of the Arabian Peninsula?
Put the blame where it belongs.
113
@Hrayr Karagueuzian The source of evil is the terrorists’-enabling Iranian Regime. Where was the West when the Shiites started slaughtering the Sunnis in Syria? Put the blame where it belongs.
1
@WestSider
Nonsense. That war started when Assad used disproportionate deadly force on demonstrators. Although jihadis did coopt much of the resistance, the Free Syrian Army was built around Syrian army defectors. Iran went to Syria to preserve an Ala'wite govt. and build their landbridge to Lebanon.
2
@Hrayr Karagueuzian
The Wahhabis have proliferated jihadist violence training in many countries, financed by the Saudi government. This has led to much of the recent terrorism, including the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban, and Pakistan's increasing internal intolerance and lawlessness.
1
Are GOP senators reading this? Do they have any doubts where Trump’s loyalties lie? When the senate vote for removal occurs will it be fast and smart?
Trump should be worried.
7
Oh yeah, whatever happened to "nothing is off the table" in response to the Iranian attack? Someone cleared the table?
4
Recalculating, recalculating indeed. The Kurds have been close allies of US in Iraq and Syria. Their abandonment will warn others from placing trust in the United States as they did.
52
I do not think that Iran's involvement has been proved. Until it is, it is poor journalism and irresponsible to write as if there is clear evidence. The fact that the drone might be Iranian is not enough for if it were, western countries would be responsible for many acts where their weapons have been used.
172
@Peter Schaeffer lol -like Mossad doesn't know what it's talking about
6
@Peter Schaeffer This is exactly what I was thinking as I read the first part of this article. There is no proof that Iran led this attack and directed these weapons to their target.
2ndly, Friedman will never explain how Hezbollah became a fighting force to take on Israel. It happened because of the repeated incursions of Israel into Lebanon where Shiite farmers and shepherds took the brunt of these attacks. Then came the massive invasion that led Israel to drive its tanks all the way to Beirut pursuing Yasser Arafat's forces. At that point, Hezbollah became a fighting force of magnitude with the determination that never again would this occur. But we don't pay attention to the sources and causes of the problems in the Middle East. Once the hideous bombing and deaths of 220 US Marines occurred in 1983, it was clear no one asked questions in the Reagan White House and the pattern recurs. Why are we not looking at Israel's role in this conflict? Why are we seeking to support Saudi Arabia in threatening Iran with aggression--a conflict that would be over in hours without the US presence? Why cannot Israel live within its borders and arrive at a governance arrangement with the Palestinians? I don't presume to know what that arrangement would be. But there has been no one in a position of leadership for 20 years in Washington, D.C. that knows how to communicate to the Israelis we aren't going to supply them or fight for them.
27
@Peter Schaeffer
Thank you. I, too, found it beneath the dignity of NYTimes to allow such a unproven fact be stated as a fact. This is exactly how the we got onto our boats to Iraq 16 years ago. Many of us with one way tickets.
18
Wait a minute, who concluded thoroughly that the strikes on Saudi facilities were the work of Iran?
Does repetition create a truth? Surely NYT would like to cite its sources for the claim that Iran carried out the attack.
Did you know the US has a history of subversion in the Middles East itself? When ousting Iran's democratic government led by Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953, the CIA printed pamphlets claiming Mossadegh was actually a communist. At the time, Iran was battling a communist insurgency in its north, so such propaganda maligned Mossadegh very effectively in the eyes of the populace.
201
@Jack
Maybe it was an Israeli operation
disguised as an Iranian operation
hoping the US would attack Iran.
21
@Jack
And then someone, Obama, tries rapprochement and who knows if it would work, but the traitorous Republicans, violating all precedent, try to embarrass Obama with that awful, Bobo, Bebot, bitibo, no Bibi, coming to our congress to lambast our president, while he angers everyone in the region. Two state? more settlements. Pax Americana? more weapons. Sorry there was a chance and Trump and the Republicans blew it. That place is a powder keg with nukes.
44
@Jack The Houthis have openly admitted the attacks on Saudi refineries. They even produced evidence of how they had done it, and have threatened that they would repeat those attacks if Saudi bombing of Yemeni civilians do not stop. It is highly irresponsible of Thomas Friedman to so categorically blame Iran for the attacks in harmony with MBS and Bibi without producing the slightest evidence.
Over 100,000 Yemenis including thousands of children have been killed, millions are on the verge of starvation, a whole country has been destroyed, and according to the UN the situation in Yemen is the worst humanitarian disaster and not a bleep from Friedman, but a few drone attacks on Saudi refiners which had no casualties and only cut some of Saudi revenue that goes to finance the brutal war launched by the Saudi butcher makes Friedman wax lyrical about peace and security in the Middle East and the need for Israel's total immunity to any attacks. This is truly grotesque.
4
Ref the attack on Saudi refinery...The perceived wisdom around Asian Govt's security and media is that 'Bolton did it.' with all the associated reasoning as required.
14
What are the chances taht Trump giving the Truks a green light against the Kurds came with an OK from Saudi Arabia?
3
Mr. Friedman neglected to mention a still more frightening possibility, namely that if Israel finds itself existentially threatened, they will undoubtedly consider a nuclear strike on Iran itself. Before that might occur, Israel would force the U.S. to face a Hobson's choice, to defend Israel or see the region descend into complete chaos.
156
@Jeffrey Waingrow
Trump always wanted to use our nukes so...
9
@Jeffrey Waingrow:
"Mr. Friedman neglected to mention a still more frightening possibility, namely that if Israel finds itself existentially threatened, they will undoubtedly consider a nuclear strike on Iran itself."
But Iran isn't threatening the existence of Israel.
You really need to watch more than FoxNews.
Submitted Oct 8th 5:30 PM eastern
28
@Yaj Maybe you've missed the threat leveled at Israel by their neighbours for the last 70 years to drive them all into the sea.
15
I, an older former Marine who three times served as an intelligence officer, still follow military matters. Many of those (including in the US government) who first described the precision missile strikes on the Saudi oil fields inaccurately underestimated what had happened, and even got wrong where the missiles had come from. Missiles fired in the past by Iran or by their allies seldom hit anywhere near any target, so we were used to being
complacent.
The Saudis saw nothing coming until the missiles hit, nor did we. And by now the Iranians have had time and opportunity to assess and correct for future strikes the unexpectedly few missiles that had little effect on target (some of which hit precisely but did not explode and so caused little damage).
Definitely we should all be recalculating.
23
@Marvant Duhon
You are presuming sans evidence that Iran fired the cruise missiles.
Also the attack occurred on a Friday evening, so the Saudi radar was likely unmanned.
Furthermore, it's likely that whoever fired the missiles had a man/men on the inside to install homing beacons, which were only turned on say half an hour before the missiles hit. That's how specific parts of the facility were hit.
Or some party with access to far more advanced weapons hit the oil processing plant(s) and made it look a like a strike with Iranian designed cruise missiles/drones.
Submitted Oct 8th 5:34 PM
5
Mr Friedman gives trxmp too much credit. He has shown over and over again that he is quixotic in the extreme and his pronouncements are as subject to change as are his dalliances. There's no calculating or recalculating. Witness the last two days re Turkey. His handlers may be putting some thought behind his positions, but he frequently ignores them. It's very hard to draw conclusions from what he is quoted here as saying since he always leaves himself an out and usually takes it, all at his whim.
7
When Trump, Bolton, and Pompeo were threatening Iran with war a couple months ago, it was clear they knew less about Iran’s history, religion, politics, and war capacity than Bush when he invaded Afghanistan. Iran has the highly motivated, battle-tested troops and allied militias to create the largest regional war with highest casualty rates since Korea. For the first time in history, we will witness high-tech asymmetric warfare, with Iran using coordinated swarm attacks of small, relatively low cost drones, cruise missiles, smart torpedoes, one-man submarines, cyberattacks, short range ballistic missiles, as well as low tech sea mines, rockets, and speedboats to block tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, destroy Saudi and UAE oil production, spike oil prices, and cause a global recession. They can continue this dispersed warfare even if the U.S. and Israel bomb Iran. The Iranian people are suffering food and medicine shortages under U.S. sanctions, putting pressure on the hardline regime to either negotiate or fight. Iran has offered to make the nuclear deal permanent, with iron-clad inspections. No one, even Trump and Khamenei, wants war.
22
Let’s hope everybody in the neighborhood stays cool.
Get Saudi Arabia to keep talking to Iran.
Then set up the stage for a false Trump victory and get those sanctions off Iran’s neck.
10
Sobering thoughts to be sure , thank goodness there is such a calm, grounded ,and far seeing Administration in place here in the States. "Unmatched wisdom "even , and yes ,of course that was meant as dark sarcasm .
32
Iran has a meddlesome policy and the US has no policy anyone can depend on, which makes meddlesome policy more dangerous. If a leader is recognized as crazy like a fox, he is to be weighed carefully. When he is widely suspected to be just crazy, he is always to be tested. That makes miscalculation always a factor and the uncertainties of all actions go up exponentially.
18
Mr. Friedman (who rather recently waxed poetic about how MBS would spread democracy across the ME) is here, yet again, toeing the Saudi/Israeli line by warning of the perils of Iran if the US even considers removing some troops from the region.
Mr. Friedman, do you really want us stationed there indefinitely? And how much good have our interventions done so far? You're worried about Iran? The Iraq war was the greatest thing that ever happened to Iran! Talk about expanding their influence.
Perhaps it's time for us to step back a little.
225
@Halboro Yes w edo want to be stationed there forever like Japan , Germany, Korea, etc. Would you rather fight here like 9/11.
6
@Halboro
Yes we are all tired of our military involvement in the middle east but GWB -Cheney couldn't leave well enough alone and embroiled us in an endless war with no winners. It stirred up a rat nest with Iran, ISIS, Syria, Yemen and destabilized the Middle East. We will not escape involvement here, you can smell it. Without at least a toe hold in Syria we will be solely on the outside looking in. Trump should have never reneged our our nuclear deal with Iran, his move was asinine.
38
@bill walker
You have forgotten 9/11. There was no fight. Stop the hysteria.
4
It's about time we admit that Iran is the big player in the Middle East. Trump and his pawns in the administration fail to recognize that in a game of Chess, the opposition gets the chance to make moves as well. Since having put Iran "on notice", Trump has conveyed well to its Arab partners and Israel that it has no applicable strategy to contain Iran, other than the impulsive sanctions.
Iran is the big horse in the Middle East. Others are merely donkeys. Despite the many billions spent by Saudis on US defense purchases, the Houthis now living in 6th year of abject poverty, civil war, blockades, continue to pose existential threat to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a hollow state. You take out the ruling family, the country crumbles. UAE knows well that should Iran be attacked, they will be the first ones to face the wrath of the Iranian might. Baharian, too, which boast 50%+ Shia population, its populace is waiting for liberation from its Sunni autocratic rule.
You can be a big player in the neighborhood. But if the other party knows how to move strings better than you, doesn't matter how strong you are, you will not succeed. History has taught us that might is not always right.
We, the U.S, should establish communication with Iran. Not to discuss restrictions or sanctions but rather to accept their heavy sized role in the middle east. Time to say our ungrateful allies Israel and Saudi Arabia goodbyes and acknowledge and accept Iran for its realities.
94
@John
Donald Trumps strategy consists of running his mouth and making threats based on who he talked to last or what was said on Fox. No thought beyond that. No worry about strategy because that requires information and thought. No worry about consequences because he has never had consequences for his actions. We are at the mercy of an undisciplined 5 year old and his behavior.
5
I love how Friedman just casually drops the notion that Israel would retaliate against Hezbollah by indiscriminately bombing civilians in Lebanon. Friedman's apologia vis a vis military action by the United States and Israel, though unsurprising given his oeuvre, is both strategically ill-advised and morally myopic; it relies on a terribly unsophisticated and one sided view of the complicated geopolitics at play, which cannot be divorced from the ethical minefield upon which every actor treads. For a startling example, take the Dimona reactor mentioned by Friedman. A strike on the reactor would be an atrocity causing a horrific environmental and humanitarian disaster. However, Friedman fails to mention that it is also the site of Israeli nuclear weapons development. Israel possesses an arsenal of the most dangerous and revolting fruits of the human imagination; it is NOT an ethical or moral state, and any discussion of the politics of the region must address the virtues and vices of all of the regional actors. This does not permit a strike on the reactor, but it demonstrates that Israel is not an innocent actor caught between violent neighbors. Rather, it is an active participant in the violence that characterizes the Middle East, and we ought to be skeptical of anyone that omits mention of Israel's role in precipitating regional conflicts
184
@selfloathing Israel has possessed nuclear weapons for at least 50 years and never used them. Not even in 1973 when it was surprise attacked in the Yom Kippur War. Joining the nuclear club perhaps ensured its survival.
8
@Atllaw This is an enormously fallacious analysis. No country has used nuclear weapons since 1945, and yet reasonable people recognize that their mere existence is a threat to humankind. That is why we worry about nuclear proliferation and aim for reductions in the existing stockpiles of nuclear arms. Israel, though suffering heavy casualties, decisively defeated the Syrians and Egyptians in the Yom Kippur War and did not need the help of nukes to do it. Had they launched a nuclear strike, it would have had a high likelihood of spiraling into a nuclear confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union (both of whom were already on nuclear alert because of the conflict), thus ending civilization. Furthermore, their nuclear stockpile hasn't prevented war with the Syrians, Lebanese, and Iranian proxies in the decades since the Yom Kippur war (not to mention Scud missile strikes in '91) so I fail to see how they improve Israel's security situation. Finally, your comment ignores the point I made, which is that Israel is hardly an innocent actor and that Friedman's omission of its role in precipitating conflict in the region (not to mention Saudi Arabia's brutal campaign in Yemen) is irresponsible and paints an incomplete picture of the geopolitical context. Iran's is an odious regime, but so is Israel's and Saudi Arabia's.
37
If Israel engages Istanbul's F-16s to stop a genocide of Kurds in Syria, would America and Europe be obliged to come to the aid of their NATO ally - Turkey?
If ever there were a time to entrust Stingers and TOW missiles (anti- aircraft and anti-tank) to anyone outside of NATO, that would be now: give the Kurds the means to defend themselves.
11
@raphael colb
Right on both realpolitik and moral grounds!
The last time I heard anything about the number of Iranian scientific publications (that is, in recognized scientific journals, and with peer review) was in a UN Report on the State of the Islamic World. And they had one chemist, trained in America, who once published a respectable paper in Iran, got published, then jiggered a few numbers, and got republished, and then jiggered a few more numbers and got refused. I'm really dubious about any internet published scientific papers from Iran since then, and not convinced that they aren't just the best copiers of Western technology around. I also wonder about these huge numbers of college graduates cited in Iran (also other Muslim areas of the Middle East): are they all refugee rights lawyers and students of religion? There certainly aren't enough doctors, pharmacists, dentists, people who know how to put together and maintain a clean water system. This is an honest question: are you sure you're not being overly terrified by the heirs of the Persian Empire who can't put together a decently functioning country, but are convinced that they are the future of the region, particularly if they are more committed to violence than anyone willing to oppose them? I am reminded at the Japanese Admiral who said at Pearl Harbor: "I am afraid that we have woken the sleeping tiger". Fact is, if the West gets angry enough, Iran will be a parking lot in a matter of hours.
1
@Mary if the West gets angry enough, Iran will be a parking lot in a matter of hours.
So Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq can verify that after how many trillions of dollars and lives destroyed?
4
It never fails to amaze me how little Americans know about Iran.
10
@Mary But you make the case for why wouldn't we want Iranians to be well trained and well educated? And who says they don't have learned societies with published research? Who were my best students in the 1970s at Berkeley in Physics and Engineering studying for advanced degrees? I wonder where they are now? If the USA were not so blind, the State Department would be giving student visas now to Iranians to bring them into a world that they can help build. But we forget. Stephen Miller is responsible for policies about immigrants and visas.
10
Well, there goes the theory that Trump is a militarist who will embroil us in foreign wars.
By this point in his much more decorous presidency, W. Bush had attacked Iraq and proclaimed "Mission Accomplished!" Of course, he first got Congress on board (Hillary and Joe gave thumbs up to attacking Iraq). GWB even convinced a few pundits (including TLF) that we were doing the right thing, even if Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 and had no WMDs, because we would bring peace and democracy to the Middle East. So much for elite theories.
In this case, I'm content to let Saudi Arabia and Israel use the billions of dollars worth of weapons that we give/sell them every year to defend themselves from Iran. The sky is not falling. We are pulling US troops back a few miles so that Turkey has a buffer zone to insulate them from the Kurds, who helped with ISIS but also hate Turkey. Complicated, indeed.
39
@Unconventional Liberal
We are pulling US troops back a few miles so that Turkey has a buffer zone to insulate them from the Kurds, who helped with ISIS but also hate Turkey.
What a nice dismissal of what will occur when the Turks attack the Kurds. Everything’s okay in my backyard, eh?
Is Mr. Friedman suggesting that he wants the US back in the Middle East full time? This whole idea that Israel deserves to be protected as well as Saudi Arabia is old. If Iran takes over the entirety of the Middle East, which is not going to happen, what will happen next? Will Iran take over Greece, North Africa, Italy? What would the next step be? These are some questions the next US president and Congress should consider. Trump should not consider doing anything because he will just mess it up. He has already allowed Iran free reign.
25
@Anthony Yes, but at least Mr. Trump didn't give Iran permission to develop atomic weaponry to put on perfectly capable Iranian missiles. We can tell Israel and Jordan and Egypt and Saudi Arabia to fight their own battles, but the US is still the world's superpower, and therefore has the obligation to keep freedom of the seas world wide. If we want to maintain military and economic supremacy on this planet, we need to confront threats from Iran in the Straits of Hormuz and China in the South China Sea. I understand the desire to not fight for decades in places that seem to get nowhere, but I'm not at all sure that retreating behind our oceans is an option.
2
@Mary the US is still the world's superpower?
Who'd a thunk? We are not the only country with nukes. And Iran took out a refinery with low flying drones. The meek shall inherit the Earth. Pride goeth before the fall.
4
@Anthony Iran has not attacked any country across its borders in more than 150 years. They don't have a policy of waging aggressive war as we do. They have a policy of defending their nation. Perhaps our country and Israel and the Gulf States have forgotten how to make peace, and establish diplomatic relations so that Iran can be talked to daily, if necessary. Imagine US President and Secretary of State being able to meet with an Iranian ambassador when necessary in Washington. And further, if we would get on with it and put the carbon-based energy system behind us, our country would realize we don't need a presence in the Persian Gulf, and not do we need the persistent meddling with Iran's economy through dubiously legal sanctions.
8
As good policy we must support real democracies and nations that respect human rights. This is why it is difficult to get excited about potential conflict between Iran and Israel. Or Saudi Arabia.
29
After a lifetime of witnessing incessant turmoil in the middle east, I'm at the point where we should let Israel settle it. Look at the damage the US has inflicted by getting involved in that area of the world. If Iran wants to take on Israel, then Israel should respond in kind. And decisively. It just never ends.
10
@cece Israel should stop hiding behind the skirts of the US. But launching a nuclear attack on another country would make Israel a pariah among the nations of the world.
5
We cannot now directly control what any of the regional players do. But we can control our own house. The ways in which Trump is irresponsible and dangerous -- to us and our own national interests! -- are too numerous to mention.
Happily, Trump's behavior has now undeniably crossed the line, and he can be removed from office--either by impeachment or at the ballot box.
Since the number of Republican Senators willing to vote their conscience is far fewer than 20, our best hope is the ballot box. I only pray that voter apathy will subside enough to get the job done.
34
So everyone is trying to reconnect with Iran? Sounds like the optimal outcome. Maybe if the USA would engage in some serious detente we can improve the situation for Israel before that erupts.
Or we can just blame and punish Iran and be surprised when the inevitable happens.
87
@Joe
"Maybe if the USA would engage in some serious detente we can improve the situation for Israel before that erupts."
You mean like President Obama's detente of negotiating an agreement with Iran - i.e. the nuclear deal, where Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities & allow in international inspectors in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions?
You meant the detente/agreement that was working before Donald Trump, with his "great brain" & "unmatched wisdom", scuttled it? You mean THAT detente?
4
"Iran’s airstrike on Saudi oil sites exposed vulnerabilities around the region."
As Cokie would say, "now it's out there", with no evidence or opposing views.
The question that occurred to me after the attack on Saudi oil facilities: could a swarm of kamikaze drones overwhelm the radar-based defenses of American ships in the Persian Gulf?
No American naval vessel has been sunk by enemy action since the Korean War. If an aircraft carrier were sunk by anti-ship missiles, the psychological effect would be tantamount to that of the 9/11 attacks.
8
@Matthew Hughes
There's no doubt that an aircraft carrier could--with enough technological sophistication and enough effort--be sunk. The US would then lose one of its eleven most expensive military assets--and the lives of many men. Any hostile country that undertakes such a move would then have to deal with its the military consequences. I think the American response would be formidable.
7
@Geoman
It also depends if our carrier is sitting alone.
I think ordinarily when a carrier goes out, it is accompanied other support craft,
A carrier strike group[1] (CSG) is an operational formation of the United States Navy. It is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers or frigates,[2] and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships and a supply ship. (Wiki)
1