I'm confused, are we thanking Obama for the recovery or saying the economy still sucks because Trump is President? The bottom line is that Presidents don't have that much to do with the economy, although the stimulus and tax cuts definitely expanded it. Whether or not tax cuts are good for the long-term is another question.
3
Jobs created in 33 months:
Previous administration: 7,540,000
This administration: 6,279,000
Difference so far: 1,261,000 fewer jobs this administration
Source:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Projection for 48 months: 1,834,000 jobs (almost two million fewer jobs this administration)
With both chambers of Congress and the Supreme Court on its side, and despite a tax cut of 5% of GDP (with a multiplier of 0.20?), this administration has not been able to match, much less surpass, the previous administration’s job creation numbers.
5
Unemployment rate optically low, yet home ownership is still out of reach for many people; maybe unsustainably low rates has something to do with it?
5
Oh, come on - give POTUS credit where credit is due.
Folks below are saying Obama started it.
Let's remember also what he said - among others - 2% growth is new normal manufacturing as we had known in America will never come back, and oh, Obamacare will solve Americans medical problems for ever.
Not this POTUS.
He never underestimated true potential of America.
And he believed like I do - business of America is business.
A rising tide indeed lifts all boats.
Unleashing America is the best thing America can do for itself.
POTUS implemented these with tax cuts, regulatory roll back and demanding equal access to America's businesses in foreign countries.
That's what got us to the point where we are.
At Obama rate - this news would have been a 20 year low unemployment ,- if that.
5
If the trade war goes on and the government doesn’t bail out the bond market with more artificially low rates, you will these ‘fake gains’ get wiped out fast! Also, look at the employment rate instead of the unemployment rate (which overstates the strength of the economy as the denominator goes down) - adjusted for dropouts (not to mention gig jobs with no benefits or job security), it’s gone nowhere; so many middle age/middle class job seekers have just dropped out. The recent ISM numbers were really bad and the stock market has gone nowhere for almost 2 years now. HP today alone just let go of 9000 people. Every day there are more mass layoffs; the terrible Trump trade tariff taxes not working at all, they’re failing!
7
Oh, come on - give POTUS credit where credit is due.
Folks below are saying Obama started it.
Let's remember also what he said - among others - 2% growth is new normal manufacturing as we had known in America will never come back, and oh, Obamacare will solve Americans medical problems for ever.
Not this POTUS.
He never underestimated true potential of America.
And he believed like I do - business of America is business.
A rising tide indeed lifts all boats.
Unleashing America is the best thing America can do for itself.
POTUS implemented these with tax cuts, regulatory roll back and demanding equal access to America's businesses in foreign countries.
That's what got us to the point where we are.
At Obama rate - this news would have been a 20 year low unemployment ,- if that.
Oh, come on - give POTUS credit where credit is due.
Folks below are saying Obama started it.
Let's remember also what he said - among others - 2% growth is new normal manufacturing as we had known in America will never come back, and oh, Obamacare will solve Americans medical problems for ever.
Not this POTUS.
He never underestimated true potential of America.
And he believed like I do - business of America is business.
A rising tide indeed lifts all boats.
Unleashing America is the best thing America can do for itself.
POTUS implemented these with tax cuts, regulatory roll back and demanding equal access to America's businesses in foreign countries.
That's what got us to the point where we are.
At Obama rate - this news would have been a 20 year low unemployment ,- if that.
@Neil
1. The rate of job creation over Trump's first 32 months is 19% lower than the rate over Obama's last 32 months.
2. Less than 19% of the improvement in the unemployment rate came under Trump. More than 81% came under Obama.
3. Over the last 50 years the unemployment rate has declined 6.2% under Democratic administrations and risen 6.2% under Republican administrations.
4. Trump is a corrupt moral degenerate, a con man and a pathological liar.
5. It will take decades to recover from the damage done to our country's reputation by the Trump administration.
6. If you like faster job creation, you should be a Democrat. Historically (since 1939), jobs have been created 82% faster under Democratic administrations.
4
Peter Navarro said this morning on CNN that 90,000 jobs are needed to keep the economy afloat each month and the rest is "gravy," but at no time did he discuss the quality of the jobs. Unemployment is low and jobs are going begging, yet this is not a result of Trump policy. It is still a continuation of Obama policy. The wild gyrations of the stock market suggest we will see a recession sooner rather than later.
Yes, but there’s still time to stop this mess if the tariff taxes are abandoned. ISM numbers weak and getting weaker. Global deflation on the rise again. Unemployment rate misleading because so many jobs are gig jobs with no benefits, doesn’t count labor force drop outs who have given up looking.
1
These numbers like most government authorized numbers seem pointless, decades ago it was determined that 200,000 jobs a month were needed to merely keep up with population growth, what, people aren’t moving here anymore or having lots of kids, if this is the case you would never know it by visiting California or Florida, the places are crammed to the rafters, I doubt 136,000 covers new births.
2
With the recent benchmarking adjustment, the number of jobs added over the last 32 months would be 5,526,000. That's a 19% decline from the 6,838,000 jobs added in the last 32 months of Obama's presidency. I think it is likely that a Hillary Clinton administration would have probably also had a similar decline in the rate of job creation unless Republicans in Congress would have gone along with her policy initiatives (highly unlikely).
So, why do we need all the corruption, dishonesty, chaos and craziness we've had with Trump?
3
Whether or not the data is misleading, I think of these reports, especially if they’re positive, as ‘in spite of Trump’ not ‘because’ of him. Everything he touches turns to rot.
5
136,000 jobs were added last month, **the government** reported ..................
And we believe because why?
3
Because they’re the ones that count it to see?
2
Will the past 35 months go down in history as the best months for our fellow Americans seeking jobs and with that earning the dignity and a livelyhood? There is nothing more pathetic than being poor and homeless in America when there is so much wealth and opportunities. The first 16 years of this century were the worst in terms of the regime change wars and the epic migration of people leaving their bombed out homelands in the middle east and excessive use of police force in the USA. Bush's tax cuts to the wealthy and Obama impotent to take them away was wrong. Although Obamacare was the best health insurance option that reduced the number of those without healthcare. Thanks to the across the board tax cuts that have kept the economy strong and the unemployment at the lowest level since 1969 and restoring the freedom to those who choose not to have any health care without being penalized.
1
When trumpf brags about the low unemployment rate and our country’s strong economy, he always forgets to mention that he inherited it from President Obama. Obama, as we remember, was responsible for putting the economy back on track during his presidency.
Has anyone considered the possibility that unemployment is so because so many of us now work 2 jobs? And that wages are stagnant if not declining because we need the extra work just to make ends meet these days and will take what we can get to do so?
6
@jm
Or worse, because the government is refusing to give unemployment insurance to everyone who needs it
A 2 for 1 win for Republicans: deny people unemployment and tout the low unemployment figures. Meanwhile the number of destitute and opioid addicted rises to record highs
Not a coincidence
6
@jm
Percentage of Americans with two jobs is about 2%. Nice try!
2
As someone who is still trying to recover from 2008, I do not believe any of these job reports.
8
Export orders are down. A trillion in debt.
One trillion
$1,000,000,000,000
The tax free top .01% harvested early in the Trump presidency.
Good times.
He also mentioned that maybe cuts to Medicare and Medicaid could be up in his second term.
They keep wanting to get rid of food stamps.
3
My two usual comments. BTW, to see the table that the NYTimes reports from, Google for BLS Table A-15.
1. The true unemployment rate is best measured by the U6 number and is 6.9% -- noted in passing more than half-way into the report, though this is progress as usually the reporting skips it altogether. The U3 number that is emphasized and graphed is an undercount by design.
2. Population growth requires addition of about 125,000 jobs per month, so correct for that when looking at the monthly totals. Remember, U.S. population has increased by 19 million just since 2010.
1
@Svante Aarhenius
Agreed as to your first point, but your figure that we need 125,000 jobs to counter the effect population growth is almost double what it ought to be. I think you're assuming we need one job added per person added to the population. But that assumes that every infant and 90 year old needs a job. Only 45% of the American population has a job. It seems population growth is about 160,000 people a month. Thus, to "break even" we need roughly 75,000 new jobs.
2
The number is meaningless except relative to previous months.
Yeah. Sure!!!
Faulty stats based on temp hires for 2020 census.
Nytimes. Investigate this statistical ruse.
11
This data is misleading!. The unemployment rate for AA males is not accurately calculated. In spite of Trump's claims there have not been historic gains for black males , it is a lie because these stats are definitely excluding them from their calculations. The economy is doing no better under Trump than Obama. One can argue Trump has done nothing to improve the economy, especially, if you exclude 2017 which was simply Obama/Biden coattails. The tax cut occurred in 2018 and it was the worst year in 10 year for the stock market. Now its the end of 2019, there are serious signs of a recession and proof the trade war with China is failing. The WSJ on Tuesday reported "For the first time in more than a decade, the Federal Reserve injected cash into money markets Tuesday to pull down interest rates and said it would do so again Wednesday after technical factors led to a sudden shortfall of cash." These are emergency measures meant to keep interest rates in check. All the Feds efforts ,cannot over come the incompetence of team Trump and more bad news is coming. Go MAGMA for 4 more years ? ... hopefully not or we may go broke!
6
Yet another win by Mr. Trump! Thank you for these bountiful jobs. There is nothing that matters more than Americans who want work being able to find it. It's a beautiful day in America!
11
@Bob I don’t see what you see. Americans want work, that’s true, but they also want and need to be compensated enough to pay their bills. Low wages mixed with daily effort eventually results in the tightening of the vise and people with direct experience of of this untenable combo will not survive well. I see more working homeless in the current scenario.
9
@BBW
The average American is in better shape financially than they were a couple years ago. We can debate the reason, but that's a fact. More people have jobs and wage growth has exceeded inflation for the entirety of the Trump administration. Not saying there's no stories of financial woe we can discuss, but those stories always exist. It's statistics that tell us whether things are improving, not sad stories.
4
@Bob
Average Americans are not doing better
Just saying it doesn't make it true
9
During the Great Recession, numerous corporate employers "unlocked shareholder value" by discarding workers over 50 (or possibly 40). Even with "recovery," the same age discrimination has meant many of those highly experienced professionals have been unable to find new jobs at anywhere near the level of the ones they lost. And too many others have been unable to find jobs at all. So with official unemployment numbers at record lows, I once more ask: How low do those numbers have to get before those ignored discarded workers become employable again?
Also, even with record low unemployment numbers and employers complaining about the lack of qualified (but not "overqualified") workers, wage growth remains minimal. Anyone (other than Donald Trump) can see that something is very wrong with this picture. Has the classical economic dogma of supply and demand somehow been repealed?
The reported unemployment number is already rigged, as it conveniently ignores "discouraged" workers and the long-term unemployed (e.g., older workers discarded in the Great Recession). Does it also conveniently count someone working two or more McJobs to make ends meet as two or more employed people, negating one or more other people who are unsuccessful in actively seeking work?
Could the wage numbers reflect the fact that so much of the jobs that are created are McJobs that will never pay more than minimum wage?
Do labor statistics reflect the reality of the "New Economy"?
13
Sigh.
Every month we play a shell game with ourselves about our economic numbers. Yes, lots of people are working...in lots of low paying jobs and/or in jobs with little or no wage growth, and diminishing benefits.
And there are more and more and more...temp only jobs; setting up millions of folks to fall off the financial stability cliff with no safety net below.
Yes, consumer spending is up, but how much of that spending...is on credit? I'd like to see that number every month.
How many millions of Americans have not fully recovered from the Great Recession? How many millions of Americans are working harder, more hours, for less benefits than they were 15 years ago?
How much more are they spending on health care? Housing?
If the majority of American families would lose their financial footing if a $400 emergency arose...that's a pretty solid "economic indicator."
Let's look at a simple, straight-forward number...how many American are not better off than they were in 2005?
There's so much smoke and mirrors in how we report and view our economy. So much so that pretty soon...there's going to be a bonfire.
14
136,000 jobs look impressive and of course your corrupt President is taking a victory lap, first many of these jobs may be reported as Seasonal as crops are being harvested, secondly many of these are not high paying jobs, thirdly and probably most important, if you look at farmers not only those that have claimed bankruptcy or have had to lay off some of their employees, none of these is reflected in the
above totals, therefore if you were to put a true figure on this there would be a loss of employment,it truly is amazing that when you look at the totally of hardships caused by loss including the massive fires, tornadoes one need wonder what is the true picture of the economy, tell me how many people commenting on this article actually play the stock market and are successful, how many people reading this article depend on the investors, when you have your company on the stock market the job of the CEO is to work for the company and investors, so before everyone invests much of their energy by proclaiming this corrupt President Great, remember Trump, as well as his administration, congress, are playing the stock market, so do they have the middle classes interest at heart, probably not,
it is always nice to see high figures, would be great if it showed a totally of the picture, not just the outside frame of a puzzle, It's nice that the people of the US feel that they have had a great economical win with Trump it was there prior to Trump's tariffs sustainable questionable
4
@Rachel Quesnel
The numbers come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they are "nonfarm payroll" statistics that are generally reported on (like in this article).
1
The really important question: How will the very stable genius blame this on Biden ??? Or even Clinton ???
Sad.
3
@Phyliss Dalmatian
No blame to go around. This is a phenomenal report! Incredible we still have so many jobs being created with such low unemployment. Really incredible!
6
@Bob, I am loving this economy. My stagnant wages are rising, my income tax is lower, and my employer is hiring more people to ease up the work load. And more importantly, my recent college graduate children have great jobs so they are off my payroll!
5
I guess that 6% growth rate will have to wait until we change president in 2020 LOL Donny none of us are sick of winning but we are sick of you.
5
Reason number 546 to question the NY Times editorial decision making. Why isn't this story at the top of the web page, specifically the 3.5% unemployment rate? It's a 50-year record, yet I had to scroll way down to find it.
10
@Mattbk
The reason is quite simple. Today’s economic news is good news, and the Times is not interested in that while Trump is president. Did you see any mention of the record low unemployment for Hispanics, how blacks maintained their record low rate hit in August, or the 50 low rates for those with a high school diploma or less.
Also, no curiosity as to why job creation is lower than 2018. Is it due to lower economic growth, or is it due to a lack of available employees. After all, the number of jobs added in the past year has been larger than the addition to the workplace. Also, the number of job openings, which first began to exceed the number of unemployed on1y a few months ago, is now 1 million higher than the number of unemployed.
4
@Mattbk
Because then they'd have to report that 3/4ths of the drop in the rate occurred when Obama was President
They'll never give him credit for it
2
@Mattbk Probably because the top of the web page is devoted to the ongoing incompetence in the White House.
Is it real this time or is it just a Tumpifcation?
3
NYT: Please tell us how many people work in the dead-end gig economy?
5
@Peter E Derry That would mean more people than the number shows, probably. I don't think most gig workers report themselves as a new hire.
The gig economy is a good thing for some people, but not right for others.
Gig jobs are not dead ends relative to the sofa. Uber drivers, for example, have to deal effectively with a diverse client base every day and get them safely from point a to point b, which requires them to pay attention for long periods of time. And they have to report to work sober during such hours as they work. May seem like small things but the reality is that it’s the small things that allow the big things to work.
1
Why aren't you reporting the complete picture, with all of the data?
4
Given that I had to scroll down to find this article and that's listed in the 'Other News' section was very telling.
Upon reading it and the unhinged left's comments, my suspicions were confirmed.
This is good news for Trump so it must be downplayed and distorted to either be-grudgingly attributed this to Obama or just outright dismissed as very bad news if you read carefully between the lines. Sigh. Good news (lowest unemployment and wage increases) is no longer a cause for optimism. What a sad state of affairs.
I would like the Times to report how much is added to the Federal tax revenue each month and if that offsets the money given back in the tax cuts. We hear endlessly about the tax cuts shrinking revenues but not a word when jobs are added.
It would be nice if the citizens were properly informed.
8
@Norville T. Johnson
How is job growth that is 30% worse than an average Obama month good news for this dude ?
He promised us growth of 200,000 a month and that it would be "so easy"
And I notice he doesn't talk about the labor participation rate anymore, the rate he called the "real" unemployment rate
Why's that ? Is it because it hasn't budged ?
5
@Marion Grace Merriweather - "How is job growth that is 30% worse than an average Obama month good news for this dude?"
Different starting point. Obama started at the bottom of the curve, while Trump is starting near the top. Much easier to see larger jumps in growth when the labor force is at 10% unemployment. 3.5% might as well be full employment.
7
@Marion Grace Merriweather
Obama took power just as we were exiting a massive recession where 8.8 million jobs were lost. As long as Obama was not the first president to ever preside over a recession that never ended, those jobs come back usually with some gains; although it took him nearly six years, which a lot of people think was too long. By contrast, it's hard to find new jobs when everyone already has one. This is a great report. OP is absolutely correct. The NYT has deliberately buried this because the facts don't fit its narrative.
5
“It’s great news to hit a record low on unemployment,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton
Do people not understand what "record low" means? It is NOT a record low (see link below). Over the last 50 years the unemployment rate has gone up 6.2% under Republican administrations and down 6.2% under Democratic administrations.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
2
@Jon
Not this time. The jobs situation has been better under this President than any time in recent memory.
3
@Bob riding on Obama's coattails. The downward trajectory started in Sept 2010. Thanks Obama!
When is Trump's 4% annual GDP growth going to start as promised?
2
@Tim
It's so funny how the length of Obama's supposed impact on the economy keeps being adjusted depending upon the news. The economy's been great under Trump so folks want to say thanks to Obama, but then every time the economy looks like it's going to slump, people are out in droves saying it's the "Trump slump." But then the economy doesn't slump and in fact does fantastically well, so it returns to Obama's economy. The fact is that Obama should have had blowout numbers, and, in fairness some of them were pretty good (e.g., job and stock market growth). But the economy exited a long and deep recession within 6 months of him taking office. Normally, that means you see huge growth, but instead it felt like we were in a recession until 2014/2015 (i.e., the average length of an expansion!), and that was in spite of unprecedented intervention in the markets by the Fed.
1
Spin it however you want, the economy is Trump's single biggest advantage. You might want to think about that. Most of the plans put forth by the Democratic candidates involve raising taxes. The average voter might not be a PhD economist but they can understand this equation: Higher Taxes = Slower Economy = Less Money for Me.
Trump's behavior is abhorrent, but there is a long tradition in politics of people voting their pocket book. The Democrats are acting as if the election is a slam dunk, it is not. You may want to think about how you can keep the economy going rather than how much you can give away. People are not stupid, they know all those goodies have to be paid for somehow.
6
@Bruce1253
So slower job and economic growth than under Obama is his "biggest" advantage
Probably true, but only because the rest of it is so bad
1
@Marion Grace Merriweather
Under Obama wages had not caught up with the economy. Cite whatever indicators you wish, the only one that matters is wage growth. That happened on Trump's watch.
As I said before this election is not a slam dunk.
2
The US population grows by ~2.5 million/year. That's ~200,000/month. This is split between births and immigration (although illegals having citizen kids is part of the births). We are chasing a disappearing horizon. Want to raise wages and lower unemployment? Cut down on the labor supply. Decrease immigration and end subsidies for having more than two kids. As a side benefit, the local US environment and planet climate change will thank you.
2
“Don’t believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number’s probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.”
Trump 2/9/2016
4
Note the average trend line since December 2018. Continued decline in new jobs. Trump’s tariffs are strangling the economy. Good business people do not make decisions when economic policy is erratic or destructive.
3
Growth of 180,000 jobs were called sluggish, disappointing, and a disaster
So what does that make growth of 133,000 jobs ?
3
and real wages, at best, have only increased at 1 percent.
clearly this isn't full employment or the rules of the market—supply and demand—don't apply to wages.
3
The way we report prosperity may not be reflective of what’s happening for many people. But, if enough people feel like they are doing better, it will, unfortunately, be a win for DJT.
1
Noticeable decline in jobs for 2019, and with a new tariff war front opening against the European Union, the unavoidable damage to the global economy by Brexit, US housing showing signs of devaluating value, and when one adds Trump's administration daily dysfunctional decision making, hang on tight for 2020...
7
Why is there nothing in this article about people picking up 2nd and 3rd jobs because of low wages? certainly that has to factor into the numbers. Wages are holding employees over a barrel and the result is low unemployment. Not necessarily a good outcome for those who have to work multiple jobs to make ends meet. Does anyone care about this?
15
@Diane Roughly 2-3% of Americans have two jobs. There's your story. That's not no one, but it ain't the story most folks in this country are living.
2
Employment is a lagging economic indicator
The last thing a boss wants to do is layoff
and after a downturn the last thing you want to do is hire
Check overtime and inventory growth and earnings are a better indicator of the health of the economy
4
"... wage growth dropped quite significantly,"
That's it. Workers got a little over a year of good, not great, but good, wage growth - growth that is above the rate of inflation - and then it is over and workers are back to falling behind. Falling behind is what workers have had to deal with for almost all of the last 50 years - all of my working life. One lousy year of good wage growth is worthless. How long are workers going to put up with this? Go Warren.
14
@rls exactly, why is my daughter a nurse like me at the same starting wage I was at 15, yes 15 years ago. Something is wrong.
3
@Calleendeoliveira
Illegal Immigration has increased the labor supply.
1
“It’s great news to hit a record low on unemployment, but not on the heels of a slowdown in wage growth,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.
The addition of 150,000 jobs per month is the BLS normal for jobs creation yet only 136,000 jobs were added in September while average hourly wages decreased.
Also, the Labor Force Participation rate remains stuck at 63.2% which barely moved from where it was when Barack Obama left office in January 2017 when it was 62.9%.
Over the past 32 months according to BLS.gov Trump added
a meager 6,027,000 jobs, over one million FEWER jobs, compared to 7,162,000 added during Barack Obama's final 32 months in office ending in January 2017.
Given that the U.S. population has grown by almost 6 million since Trump has been in office the job numbers should be far higher, not lower.
The 2017 $1.5 trillion tax cut giveaway to the wealthiest 1% was supposed to pay for itself in increased tax revenues. The opposite occurred. According to the Congressional Budget Office the 2018 budget deficit increased by over $200 billion while the national debt soared by $3 trillion to $22 trillion.
Trump conflates the 3.5% unemployment figure while ignoring the burgeoning deficits, increasing the burden on future generations, the trillions it will take to rebuild our nation's infrastructure and overhaul the country's crumbling, inadequate health care system.
A Sharpie pen can't disguise that reality.
25
@Richard
And let's keep in mind that Trump promised he would create 25 million jobs, or roughly 500,000 new jobs per month. So I guess that means that his fantastic economy will be churning out 1.5 million new jobs a month over the next year or so in order to meet that promise. LOL.
7
@Richard
Your point about population growth must be discussed in detail, as it is effectively omitted.
These numbers could be from decades ago, in spite of the millions in population added. These number are below the estimates and vastly worse when compared against population growth.
@Michael The U.S. population was 323.4 million in 2016. Today, using the Census Bureau population clock, it is 329.76 million.
Of the 6 million increase (the number I used) you can extrapolate the number of those who joined the the participating labor force age, 16 and over.
The point is, the Trump economy should have created more, not 1,135,000 fewer jobs, in his 32 months in office than were created during Obama's final 32 months in office which ended in January 2017.
Anyone with a computer and an adding machine can verify or disupute those numbers I cited. The same goes for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO.gov) if you wish to track the annual budget deficits and national debt.
With boomers retiring, changing demographics are manifesting as lower employment rates now. But, debt and deficits are still growing faster than the economy's ability to pay them off in the future. A future that will likely be here too soon. That never seems to bother economists and certainly does not matter to anyone in the GOP--but only when they occupy the whitehouse.
9
@glennmr
Rats....typo...should be "lower UNemployment rates."
There are still many who are out of work including those with disabilities and older adults, despite desiring employment. I'm currently not working for an employer but also know that despite the supposed need for employees, I stand little chance of being hired for a position commensurate with my skills and experience. This is due solely to my age as sadly, employers do want what I know and can do but they'd prefer it in the body of a 30 year old.
Having zero desire to obtain a minimum wage job at a retail store or a job washing dishes in a restaurant etc. I am forced by necessity to be self-employed and cobble together a living. This is impacting others that I know as well. So personally, I find the employment figures to be a joke!
14
@Greenie An aging self employed? I wish you the best of luck and health, but imagine you're struggling to pay for healthcare, or car insurance, or maybe even mortgage or the rent every month. I went through it myself! Lets hope for a government in 2020 that confronts the reality of the great majority of Americans.
4
South Dakota Senator John Thune and the rest of the Republicans promised us a $4,000 pay hike after cutting taxes for corporations and the rich. Where is it Senator? One wonders how many times Republicans will get away with their tilting the economy in favor of the already well-to-do and kicking workers in the ditch. And they have the nerve to call Democratic efforts to tilt it back towards workers radical.
12
Job growth has slowed because the Baby boomers are retiring in droves, and a much smaller contingent is entering the labor market. Employers who have been paying minimum wage have had to raise the starting salary to attract and keep workers.
6
This is all a bunch of rubbish.
Job numbers only reflect people who work.
And unemployment % simply shows those out of work.
The fact that unemployment is at 3.5% as it was in 1969 is all the proof you need to see that Trump is trying to take us back to the '60s.
Right?
(crickets, crickets...)
4
Did you check the report for sharpie marks?
25
Interesting how NYT takes on a dour point of view on a positive jobs and wage growth report.
7
@TJ: I think it's interesting that the NY Time places the jobs and wages report in its larger economic context. I welcome that broader perspective for managing my own finances. Their reporting seems largely focused on information rather than interpretation. The opinions presented are mainly from people in the finance industry and represent a wide range of perspectives and concerns. Certainly the more dour elements of the economic outlook have not changed. And as the NYT reports, markets are up slightly but haven't found the jobs and wages report reason to erase the larger losses experienced so far this month.
4
@TJ -- because, the jobs report and what's going on in the economy are more nuanced than a simple headline statistic.
6
@Lilou
Yes, much more nuanced than under the Obama administration.
Neil Irwin will now write about the robust economy and misplaced recession hysteria. Waiting...
5
The economy is faltering thanks to Trump's trade wars and tariffs--particularly in the farming and manufacturing sectors.
Real wages, adjusted for inflation, have not increased since the '90's.
These "new jobs"--it's not said whether they're full or part-time, whether they offer benefits, whether they are a second or even third job worked by one individual to make ends meet.
Also not indicated is how many jobs were lost during this same period of "new jobs created".
These optimistic headlines are misleading, especially given the global economic uncertainty engendered by Trump's trade wars and hostility toward the Fed.
Companies, already sitting on their liquidity, and not investing in employees, job training or R&D for the future, now face an even more uncertain future--they're "clutching their pearls".
Check out Paul Krugman's article entitled "Here Comes the Trump Slump", published in the October 3 New York Times, for another, very interesting, perspective.
Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/03/opinion/trump-economy.html
10
Ironic that this story is right next to the one with this headline:
Another Fed Rate Cut Is Expected After Weak Economic Data
6
Americans should thank President Obama for the success that is now the economy. The Grifter is surfing on Mr Obama’s fortunes.
12
@Welcome Canada
I'm not a trump voter, and his tax cuts were insane, but does it ONLY become trumps economy when it busts?
2
@AT
Absolutely.
When you are given a gift and you break it, you own it. Makes perfect sense.
1
@Welcome Canada
So HRC dodged a bullet after all.
I wouldn't trust anything that comes from this administration.
9
CNSNews.com’s report on the September employment numbers emphasized the record number of people participating in the US labor force, 158,269,000, or 63.2% of the US population, not counting those imprisoned for criminal behavior. In comparison, the percentage under Obama reached a low of 62.7 in September 2010, nearly equaling the low established by Jimmy Carter in the mid-1970s. the highest percentage reached over 67% in the early 2000s under GWB. When Obama took office in 2009, the percentage of participation spiked over 65% but rapidly declined to 62.7% in September 2010 and plummeted further during his presidency. These stats show the obvious in that Obama, who was no friend of capitalism, wanted a weak labor force dependent on the Federalized government for its livelihood, something to which the Marxist-Socialist-Leninists vying to head the Democratic ticket in 2020 want to return. Donald J. Trump, the scion of New York, the epitome of hard work, individualism, self-sacrifice, and personal responsibility, has inspired people to return to the labor force. As for the unemployment rate of 3.5%, the lowest since 1969, before the weight of the Vietnam War crushed the economy, is proof positive that Donald Trump is making America great again. There has never been a better time to be an American than in the Age of Trump. Thank you.
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/158269000-record-number-employed-lowest-unemployment-rate-1969
4
@Southern Boy - Your comment is proof positive that employment statistics can not be viewed absent the broader economic context. Just a couple of fer'instances:
- The decline in employment under Obama resulted from the fallout of the recession (employment is a lagging indicator);
- Full employment under Bush was due in part to the "wartime" economy and deficit spending of that administration. I'm not sure either was a healthy situation (but Bush is a Republican, and deficits don't matter ...).
5
@Southern Boy, Obama tripled the stock market in 8 years, a feat no other president has come close to matching, even FDR and he had twelve years in office. If he was an enemy of capitalism, nobody informed the capitalists.
3
@Rick Gage,
Point well taken about the stock market, but Obama presided over the lowest participation in the labor market, and I do not believe all of that had to do with the recession.
This is history making news:
‘The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, the lowest in a half century’
‘Average hourly earnings were little changed. The year-over-year gain was 2.9 percent’
Why is this not the headline for today?
Too bad Paul Kruger also has an article today called ‘Here comes the Trump slump’
It’s sad to see that great news are bad news for the NYT.
5
@AutumnLeaf
Paul Kruger has not worked an honest day in his life. He is currently living in his university provided Manhattan apartment with, I’m sure, a dacha somewhere nearby. If a proletariat revolution does ever happen in this country, I would like to see him be the first to be taken to the land and forced to toil under the hot sun; maybe someone will have knocked the glasses off his face beforehand too.
Notice a trend there? Job growth goes up until 2018, then trends overall down since then. The Trump slump started when he came into power.
4
These figures come from the deep state and Trump says we cannot believe what the deep state reports.
Rather than report these figures why not report what is going on in a attempt to solve our health insurance problems.
1
Sure….new jobs, low wages and high costs of living, more tariffs on the way, tremendous Federal deficit; and the economy is doing great? These numbers/metrics do not reflect the struggles and hardships of the millions upon millions of average Americans holding more than one job just trying to make ends meet not to mention the high costs of health care and education.
17
I don't believe anything pertinent to the economy, or from any other Federal agency feeding information and propaganda to the public.
Jobs are up? Wages static, and increasing numbers of fast-food drive through so heads of households can feed their families steady diets of highly-processed 'dinner' - and get to their second full-time job.
Don't forget your homework! I've gotta go.
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@drjillshackford
Median household income up $4000
1
Where are you seeing data about median income up? Source please.
1
@G.Talbot
Aah, would that the cost of everything stayed put, huh? If that median income increase actually meant something, there would be no need for the government to make cost of living adjustments to keep up with economic reality! Upped-median income numbers improve little 'on the ground' -- where 78% of the population continues to live from paycheck-to-paycheck with nothing left to put away, and a day or two of lost wages from hourly workers (30% of that 78% who live paycheck-to-paycheck) devastates a family. That 30% lives on hourly wages at or near FEDERAL minimum wage (NOT States' minimum wages): that's $7.25/hr in 2019. Nearly 3% work full-time and earn LESS than federal minimum wage. Without surprise, the percentage of households living from paycheck-to-paycheck also rises steady, as the value of money declines yearly.
For God's sake, don't get sick! Don't have a sick child and need to take care of them because no one else will or can. It's not just medical costs or even OTC medications, it's lost hourly wages that turn routine expenses into family-crippling disasters for one third of the population! That's HUGE! Tell THEM about median-income rise, and hope you don't get asked what planet you live on.
1
Do not underestimate the influence a declining manufacturing sector has on the economy. It may be only 12% of the economy, but every dollar that manufacturing creates gets multiplied several times over. Many service industries support manufacturing such as design, accounting, graphics, engineering, packaging, shipping and so on.
And all of that hinges on trade. American manufacturing exports a huge amount of goods. Trump's trade war with China is having a serious impact on manufacturing as it has contracted for two months now and is now in negative territory. Layoffs are more of a lagging indicator here, not leading. First the sales drop and then the layoffs occur.
As if that isn't bad enough, Trump has just started another trade war with the EU. We are also have disputes with Canada and Mexico, our two largest trading partners.
The global economy is slowing down which is a direct result of these trade wars. This has nothing to do with interest rates. They are currently at very low levels. There is no liquidity crises. Trump created this slowdown and it will continue. In fact, it's just getting started. It takes many months for the effects of higher prices for goods to ripple through and we are seeing the effects of that right now.
Trump will blame the Fed. Then he will blame the impeachment proceedings. But this is all on him.
17
When one person is holding down two or three jobs to make ends meet how does that affect the job numbers?
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@Mike S It can count as multiple jobs in one of the federal employment surveys.
Some of these statistics shouldn’t be compared to previous decades. Every day 10,000 Boomers are retiring, and that’s skewing the curves. Our economy is not expanding as quickly as these numbers would suggest. In fact the retirees are spending less, and their care will become a drag on the economy.
2
@EW
The retirees are spending less due to decades of pay increases not keeping up with productivity increases, thus little or no money for retirement 401Ks and nest eggs, and the disappearance of the traditional pension (thanks again, Ronnie and the 80s powerbrokers).
However, people will be employed providing their healthcare. It is more the lack of retiree disposable income to be a regular consumer of goods and services (which becomes a luxury), vs. their fixed financial obligations, that is becoming a drag on the economy.
5
Baby Boomers are moving from the productive side of the economy to the consumption only side of the economy. We are now relying on a growing shortage of workers to produce more. Those new entrants into the economy are burden by high debt for education and training, high rents and the cost of health care. Their ability to consume like their parents will be diminished for decades going forward.
I'm tired of 'adjusted' statistics that are manipulated to put as positive spin as possible on things.
REAL unemployment - reported by shadowstats has been over 20% (at times over 23%) since 2009
from their site:
"The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.
The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment."
I know people who have been out of work for years with others earning HALF their former salary after finally getting another job. Others scrape by with multiple part time jobs. College grads are working as unpaid 'interns' (illegal but common) for months just to get a foot in the door. These are signs of a 'good' economy?
36
@cynicalskeptic. The U-3 is not manipulated. It is a well-defined measure, as your own comment implies. It is, indeed, the "headline" number because you can't fit the rest of your comment in a headline. The world needs headlines.
1
There's no denying the economy is strong right now. Does that give Trump a pass on his corruption? Is it okay to interfere in democracy, run your personal businesses from the oval office, etc., if unemployment is low?
13
By many measures, the economy is not especially strong right now, and many trends are pointing toward weakness. Indeed, today's jobs number points to weakness. It's not a bad number, but it is weak.
11
@Mford By many measures the economy is not strong? The stock market at near highs, lowest unemployment in 50 years, lowest unemployment among minorities, strong consumer spending, wages increasing 2.9%.
Democrats are doing the same to Trump as they did to Bush - talk us into a recession.
4
@David
If this is a strong economy the future does not look promising for the middle and lower classes.
3
From my perspective as a just-retired economist who has delved into the details of the numbers, this is a STRONG jobs report. First, due to the smaller size of the younger age brackets of our population, and the largely complete retirement of the baby boomers, we only need to add about 70,000 jobs a month to keep even with new entrants (one comment used the now-ancient rule of thumb of 160,000). Second, we can look at age-specific participation rates relative to the period before 2007, when they were flat in prime-age brackets. In both cases, the bottom line is that we have little room to add additional jobs: aggregate employment, corrected for demographics, is higher than that in the period leading up to the start of the Great Recession in 2007, while age-specific participation is likewise slightly above the level that prevailed during the mid-2000s housing boom.
We should thus expect fewer jobs to be added, and slower overall growth (eg, of GDP). "Weak" growth numbers thus will not necessarily be a presage to the purportedly pending recession. [pardon the alliteration]
Now I hope that we see another side effect: rising wages. In the rural Virginia area where I live, fast-food restaurants and 24-hour gas stations have all raised their wages, and have "help wanted" signs prominently placed. That however has not yet filtered into wages in local factories and similar employers.
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@Mike Smitka
However, those increases in wages are still not enough to support a single person, let alone a modest family, with the modern cost of living. Some things are less expensive in some areas of the US, but they are usually compensated for by having to pay for something additional or at a higher rate.
5
@Mike Smitka
Mike, thanks for that perspective. But let me ask you, how do we parse out the "gig" workers in this jobs report? A person may be working days as an Uber driver and nights as a pizza delivery person, to hopefully pull the same income he/she would earn from a full-time job, with benefits. Something seems amiss, here.
This is just an anecdote, but maybe relevant: on a busy Friday night, my local pizza place, in a predominantly white suburban Connecticut town, typically has five, six, seven cars parked outside with their logos attached to what are apparently cars owned by gig workers. From what I've seen, these gig drivers are almost all people of color. Which makes me wonder: how good is this economy if young, eager workers are delivering pizza, when they could possibly be building things, programming things? The pizza's delicious, and the family that runs the place are really nice, hard-working folks. But still, we have these gig workers busting their butts for small wages, tips, and without benefits.
I'm really interested in your thoughts on this, and will look for your reply.
4
@Mike Smitka
"...we only need to add about 70,000 jobs a month to keep even with new entrants..."
Source?
Actually, 165,000 jobs per month, more than twice that:
Labor force
September 2018: 162,055,000
September 2019: 164,039,000
Increase: 1,984,000
Average per month: 165,000
September 2019: 117,000 (48,000 below average)
Source:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
If the economy is so strong why is the Fed still talking about lowering interest rates?
If the economy is so strong why is the Housing market still out of reach of so many?
If the economy is so strong why are so many still without affordable health care?
If the economy is so strong why is there still not a significant national infrastructure program?
If the economy is so strong why are “entitlements,” benefits people have paid into and earned and deserve, such as Social Security and Medicare, still under threat?
Every month job numbers are reported, as if a sign not only of growth but security and prosperity, but detailed data about those jobs-salaries, benefits, location, and longevity-is never included.
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@CA
The economy has been supported/bolstered/propped up, what have you, by enormous amounts of the easiest money ever seen before in our nation. When the 10-year bond "dared" to rise to (the still extremely low) rate of 3.27% last November and Powell indicated the Fed would also continue to raise its ( still historically low) fed funds rate by perhaps another 0.75 basis points this year, Wall St. had a historic December meltdown, the worst Dec. since the 1930s. It wasn't that the economy couldn't handle the still minuscule rise of interest rates. It was Wall St. that objected due to its esoteric and newfangled betting schemes akin to the subprime debacle of a decade ago. The Fed created trillions of dollars of new money to buy Wall St's toxic securities from 2008. That money could have gone to help out tens of millions of scammed homeowners. But Wall St. calls the shots as it did again when Powell waived the white flag last Jan. Millions of millions of jobs would have been created anyway...most are in health care and the service sector. Our health care costs have exploded, there is an enormous health care bureaucracy that supports a bloated system that we pay for. Those are the jobs that have been created.
7
@CA - It seems as though reporters live in a fictitious world when reporting on jobs data analysis each month. Never do they dare delve into the details.
5
@CA --
On your first point, Trump pressures the Fed to lower interest rates because he stands to gain $850,000 for every 1/4 percent interest drop.
He owes Deutsche Bank $380 million in 4 variable interest rate loans, so every time interest goes down, so do his loan payments. It's all about him, not the U.S. (Sources: Business Insider and Bloomberg, August 2019)
Housing Market -- driven by greedy developers, building in high-risk areas, which some insurers now refuse to insure. City and County governments earn more in taxes from richer property owners, so it doesn't behoove them to lower housing costs. And there is an essentially "do nothing" Department of Housing and Urban Development on the Federal level.
Healthcare, Infrastructure and Entitlements -- U.S. taxpayer dollars have been diverted to pay down the loans Trump took to fund the "Tax Break for the Rich" package. That plan pushed the U.S. deficit up to $1 trillion. Bailouts for farmers and manufacturers, due to Trump's trade wars and tariffs, made the deficit higher.
Conservatives love social welfare--when THEY want the money, to bolster investor and CEO payouts, or to pay lobbyists to write our laws.
But when average Americans want the Social Security and Medicare benefits they have paid for their entire working lives, want clean air and water, want the government to save life--human, animal, plant--not destroy it, want a living wage--the Right is suddenly broke.
Short answer: it's all about greed.
9
Imagine what it would be like if we didn’t have Trump’s crazy tariffs playing havoc with the agricultural and manufacturing sectors and with all the uncertainty that entails.
7
Wages are the only important metric to the public. Working class folks took a hit ten years ago and have yet to catch up with inflation and insane cost of living increase nation wide. I can go out and get ten horrible job offers today for part time or contract positions with no hopes of health care, retirement, or wages than can support child care, student loans, or home ownership. If the workers can't spend, its gonna all burst eventually.
51
The key is that Trump can choose when to stop the trade war and unleash huge surge in investment, just at the right time before the election. The 'trade war' is just another of his self made fires he can claim credit for putting out as it suits. Are all Trump policies really just about manipulation of his image?
4
@FM ~
"huge surge in investment,"
Why, and by which companies.
We saw a bit of an upswing after the trillion dollars in tax cuts, but not nearly what Trump promised.
What else is new?
5
I don’t understand how unemployment drops and wage growth slows at the same time. Something is out of whack, and it might be a distortion caused by a contraction in global trade without precedent.
4
@Yeah If you have a couple of jobs to make ends meet you are filling slots but barely getting by. In our area I know people with two or three jobs. All they seem to do is work and it is out of necessity. Not that many “good paying” jobs in the rural areas.
15
How many of the jobs added in September were temporary census jobs?
35
Although Trump has diminished the Presidency during his tenure it is hard not to give him credit for a Dow Jones that is near record highs and amazing employment numbers. Foe re-election purposes will the economy Trump the rest of his disastrous performance. Guns or butter. Glad I am Canadian and do not face this Hobson’s choice.
3
@Milton Lewis @Milton Lewis "Although Trump has diminished the Presidency during his tenure it is hard not to give him credit for a Dow Jones that is near record highs and amazing employment numbers."
Fact is, Trump is merely riding the tail of Obama's comet. If you recall, Mitt Romney's promise to take the unemployment rate down to 6% was greeted with cries of "Impossible" from all quarters... yet when Obama left office it was 4.8%. As for the Dow, compare the 31% increase during Trump's presidency to 44% during Obama's. Credit Trump? I think not.
2
September is typically when retailers hire their holiday help. Let’s see what happens to these numbers in January.
18
@JCAZ ~
Those seasonal changes are usually factored in the number released. There are statistics on the BLS reports that show raw numbers.
5
This quote is key “Mr. Trump has repeatedly placed the manufacturing sector at the center of his economic strategy. Nonetheless, that sector is suffering the most from prolonged trade tensions. Companies in the business of making goods — as opposed to those that deliver services like hospitals and restaurants — are much more dependent on sales to other countries and supply chains that wend around the globe.”
Trump has got to stop this crazy trade war. Does he not realize that he hurts those whose votes he needs to win? Does he think he will just be anointed president for four more years? He attempts to deflect with this Ukraine business, but the small handful of voters in those few, tiny swing states, who apparently hold all the power, might just be a little miffed at the way things are going. Beware Trump. You might lose to a real reformer.
If the republicans had any spine or brains (and apparently they have neither) they would rid themselves and this country of the scourge of Trump. Our politicians represent themselves not the people. It seems that all may be lost.
6
I added a second job to my schedule just to cover the rising cost of my expenses. Does that count as an added job?
62
@Abby Depends on the survey. If it is recorded in the establishment survey (as it should be) then, yes. Put differently, the establishment (employer) survey counts jobs created, not unique job holders.
@Abby It counts as an added job, yes, though it doesn't affect the unemployment rate.
I hope you're able to get a better job soon so you can get back to having some free time. No one should have to work two jobs to make ends meet.
I would not want to be a smaller business right now, especially in manufacturing. The uncertainty about what will happen next with tariffs, health benefit pricing and the supply chain pricing and availability would make it very difficult to make sound decisions. In retail the landscape has changed with online retailers.
I wish these job reports would include how many jobs come with health insurance, a living wage for the locality and so on. A job is a job but is it a good job with good benefits and pay and chance of longevity.
15
Of course the unemployment rate is low. One hundred and sixty thousand jobs are needed every month to cover new entries into the labor market.
9
"The cavalcade of payroll gains continued for the 108th month in September" which coincides exactly with the 108 months Donald Trump has been in office. What, he has been in office only 33 months? You mean the first six years of this was under Obama?
I'm guessing Donald Trump's strategy going forward, given the strong employment numbers, will be further tariffs so he can weaken the economy so he can further seethe and rage at the Fed for not reducing rates so the press will give us more predictions about a coming recession so that Trump can further seethe and rage at press and blame the Democrats and wind the election.
6
Reduced taxes and regulation lead to jobs. Obama signed 99% of the Bush tax cuts into permanent law and Trump cut corporate taxes. Both lead to job gains. Raising taxes and regulation will destroy all of this progress. Warren and Sanders would do well to pick up an economics book. Biden and Trump seem to understand the basics much more clearly.
12
@Jerry- Bush racked up 3.3 trillion in debt during his administration leading to the second worst recession since the Depression.
President Trump has doubled down on federal spending while privatizing more of the government. We are running a trillion dollar annual deficit. Unprecedented during a period where there is virtually no unemployment.
Deregulation may well grease the tracks for a more robust expansion but that ignores the potential liability and the cost of insuring that liability.
See Boeing plane crashes, rising seas, catastrophic storms, forest fires that threaten homes and businesses, along with the threat to the water supply of millions of Americans as an example.
81
@Jerry That is very simplistic thinking. Progress at what cost? My wages have not increased significantly, but healthcare costs have certainly gone up. Student loan debt prevents me and many others from persuing another degree to make a career change.
And Trump understanding the basics of any topic is very debatable. Those tax cuts were instructed of him and the Republicans by their donors and have been wildly unpopular since. What happened to fiscal responsibility in the GOP? Oh, that's right.... only when there is a Democrat in the WH does the GOP care about the national debt.
71
@Jerry Responsible government requires that tax cuts be accompanied by spending cuts. Ronald Reagan and George W Bush both cut taxes and increased spending tremendously, both leading to massive increases in deficits and significant recessions.
Reduced taxes accompanied by spending cuts (to prevent those economy busting deficits) lead to a contracting economy. A very large part of our economy is people who work for our government and companies that do business with our government. If you cut spending, contracts with private businesses are not signed and those businesses lay off workers. The government lays off public servants. The economy shrinks.
Doing what Reagan and Bush W did leads to deficits, debt, and eventual recession. Like we are seeing now.
Stop focusing on the supply side - supply side economics was never a real thing and it has been completely debunked. Our economy has stayed strong so far because of consumer spending. Stay focused on the demand side and you will do far better.
9