None of it matters. The people have already decided that Trump is unfit for the office and, with the economy weakening by the day, Trump is toast.
1
Trump will simply fold his tent on most or all of these disputes, declare victory, and yap throughout the campaign about how he brought these foreigners to their knees. This will be the centerpiece of his campaign and, happily for him, it's completely within his control. "Winning" is what the emperor declares it to be. Dems will be left to explaining why it ain't really so. Classic Trump.
Mr. Trump's goal, the real goal, is the Nobel Peace Prize, the one thing Obama has that he has not been able to touch (aside from asking someone to nominate him).
Trump will do anything to get that Peace Prize on his list of accomplishments.
His recent invitation to the Taliban to meet at Camp David three days before 9/11 was clearly a significant public relations scam - the place, the timing, the players - Peace Prize!
Don't fall for the idea that he wants good things for America or the world. He wants good things for Donald Trump.
13
Manage? He can't stay focused on a simple task for more than two minutes, let alone understand complex international relationships
6
A diplomatic action and a diplomatic win are not the same thing.
4
So much winning! Regarding N. Korea, Kim Jong-un has been playing Trump. Kim has no intention of giving up his nukes, and here's the proof...
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/nukes-07252018142754.html
4
The article ignores the fact that most if not all of our opponents in this negotiation know there's an election in 2020 and, not wanting to help Trump, are surely stalling with the hope that someone more sensible, predictable, and trustworthy is elected president...this reduces the odds on these wins buy the grand negotiator himself to zero.
4
As long as Trump approaches these delicate diplomatic maelstroms, using the business dealing he has used in the past, he is doomed to utter failure.
There is no correlation between a successful business deal that Trump prides himself in, and an extremely tough diplomatic process that requires careful preparation, a serious input from experts familiar with the difficulties of each case, team work and a full appreciation of the cultural traps that characterize dealing with foreign entities.
3
It’s very interesting analysis. Trade war with China is purely a bad strategy. China will surely take the deal if it suits the country. China has definitely spread its wings far and wide. There is no doubt whatsoever.
North Korea is not naive to attack American bases in South Korea. Why does North Korea dig its own pit ?
Ever since Soviet Union is broken into pieces, Russia has become a very weak force. It’s no longer strong to take on a country like America.
Afghanistan is a huge blunder. Other than finding safe means to withdraw, America literally has no choice.
Talking only about Iran and not mentioning Saudi Arabia doesn’t help.
What’s there to talk about Middle East ? It’s status quo as usual.
1
As long as the President can redefine the objectives as often as he wants, the only thing that might matter is the amount of snicker factor that comes with whatever he declares to be a great big win for himself. In any case, I applaud the Times for remaining so optimistic about future big achievements in the face of so many contrary indications - I suppose someone has to back the President on something.
If trump were really interested in big U.S. wins he would have stayed in the Iran Peace Agreement and completed further negotiations to strengthen the Agreement toward preserving peace in the region. Nope. All trump wanted was an all out WIN for trump.
trump could have remained in the TPP and used the Asian Pacific as his bargaining chip with China who had more to lose at that time. Nope. All trump wanted was an all out WIN for trump. (TPP: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.) Instead, it's the Farmers and manufactures that will LOSE markets and supply chains.
trump could be issuing sanctions against North Korea on human rights issues and nuclear issues. Nope. Instead, trump is focused on building out his hotel empire where Kim is testing missiles like it's the 4th of July: "Mr. Trump remains convinced that Mr. Kim will be impressed by the prospect of new hotels on the (heavily mined) beaches of North Korea’s east coast."
Who is the biggest threat to the United States? trump!
4
What isn't mentioned here is the lack of trust any of these nations is likely to have in the Trump administration. Negotiating in good faith is not exactly Trump's strong suit. Why would any of these nations believe that any agreement they make might not survive past DJT's next whim?
2
Sadly, the Trump version of foreign policy “wins” is roughly the same as getting the “Most Improved Camper “ award for over-entitled children. He’ll declare victory over a reduced American presence in the world, and we’ll get to live with the reduced influence and security that will result.
3
The upside on all of Trumps endeavors is that he tried to shake up sclerosis past policies. Neither Obama nor Bush nor Clinton had much success on any of these foreign policies. If he fails, so what, he tried to change the approach.
Iran kept to the agreement made with Obama, which gave us 10 years of no further Iranian progress toward a nuclear weapon. Iran watched Trump throw the agreement in the trash can and resume his "Economic Terrorism" as Iran rightly calls it. They have every reason not to make any agreement at all with Trump, who is not honorable in any way and every reason to work fast toward a nuke. Ghaddafi, who gave up his nuclear weapons, ended up dead and Kim Jong Un has no problem playing Trump and Trump is planning to give the Saudis a good start.
2
The real odds are ZERO. Trump's odds are 100 percent! Stay tuned for a dramatic announcement of the most major, "bigly" deal of any U.S. President as Trump announces, spins, brands a "most magnificent deal" with (choose one):
a. China ending the trade war with the opening of a Trump
Tower, Beijing
b. Afghanistan with the Taliban allowing the end of the 18
year war once all U.S. forces leave
c. Iran ending sanctions for a stop uranium enrichment and
promising to rein in support for terrorists if Trump resigns
the Nuclear Accord
d. North Korea for a Nobel Peace Prize winning agreement
to stop firing off missiles and agreeing to talks leading to
denuclearization after the 2020 election
e. The National Weather Services allowing him to use a
Sharpie on all future hurricane projections
re China: I suspect Xi will either give Trump a great deal in the months prior to the election in exchange for his silence when Chinese troops storm Hong Kong and slaughter the protesters OR Xi will play hard ball and give Trump a lousy deal and Trump will insist its the best deal we've ever had.
2
I’m struck by how much a Trump victory re: Iran looks like the day before he abandoned the JPCOA.
And how much a Trump victory re: North Korea looks like a failure that he spins as the best and bigly deal to the clueless.
1
My concern is that as he gets closer to the election if things start looking worse for his prospects (which could include being charged with campaign finance violations and obstruction of justice among other things) he will start making “deals” left and right to put some “wins” up. It will dominate the news cycle and he will tell everyone what a great deal-maker he is - regardless of what he really accomplishes. And we will live with his seat of the pants decisions for a long time.
1
Folks, remember the last time that the NYTs gave you odds. It was election day 2016. Clinton 85% Trump 15%.
Thank you, Mr. Sanger. That was very clear--and enlightening.
THE MORE SO--
--because millions of Americans utterly detest Mr. Donald Trump and all his works--
--and (deep down) are either WISHING that he fail or (at least) THINKING a failure inevitable.
I note that, in a few instances, you rate his chances of pulling off a win, a diplomatic victory as "good." Or even "quite good." Well--okay.
But you dropped a tell-tale phrase when you spoke of Mr. Xi--or was it Mr. Kim Jung-un--"working for the long haul."
Would not that consideration bedevil ALL these Trumpian initiatives? These much-ballyhooed, would-be "deals"? Our own homegrown Metternich, our soi-disant Otto von Bismarck--
--improvising his way across the international chessboard, pulling win after win out of his hat?
They can ALL "wait him out." Take the long view. They probably will--
--recognizing that, come November 2020, he may well be turned out of office. And even if he ISN'T turned out of office--
--his careering back and forth, up and down, in and out is so NOT of a piece with American diplomacy over the past seventy years--
--that (whenever Mr. Trump quits the field) wiser heads will prevail--
--undo whatever "deals" the man contrives--
--and (in some fashion) bring us back "to normal"--
--whatever "normal" might be in two years. Or six years. Or whenever.
November, 2020 is "game day" for Mr. Donald J. Trump.
It sure ain't for Mx. Xi. Or Mr. Putin. Or . . . . .
1
I learned as a young attorney that any case can be settled if you agree to the other party’s proposal. Then you discuss face saving steps. I think Trump will do this on those issues he sees important to at least say are resolved in order to secure his election. This is not a man who puts country before self.
3
This piece both gave me hope and deepened my skepticism: the former because I have a deep need to believe that our president is a grown-up, playing on the field with some degree of competence; the latter because I believe Donald Trump is neither nor.
1
Trump and Pompeo's ignorance on Iran is staggering, and David Sanger's reporting is not helpful in dispelling the ignorance.
The JCPOA ("Iran Deal") was a "confidence building" agreement to back up the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) to which Iran, the U.S. and about 200 their nations (but not Israel!) are signatories starting in 1970. The NPT ALREADY prohibits Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
In this regard, the JCPOA was unnecessary. The JCPOA was designed as a preventative against Iran possibly violating the NPT, which they repeatedly have avowed they will not do, backed up by decades of continual verification inspactions by the IAEA.
This makes the attacks on Iran from Trump, Pompeo, Hook, and formerly Bolton abundantly clear. They are a vendetta against Iran driven by old anger at the hostage crisis of 1979-80 and other perceived slights, and of course, Netanyahu's lust to destroy Iran, driving AIPAC and other supporters of Israeli right-wing politics. The Saudi Arabian desire for the United States to eliminate its Iranian rival for regional power is just the cherry on this toxic sundae.
If we end up in a war with Iran, we will lose badly, and it will be the fault of Trump and his minions' utter ignorance and recklessness.
5
What is fascinating though is Trump has an agenda, it’s not nutty Neocon, he has the other side engaged on all fronts, and it seems vaguely coherent. And it’s all HIS. This belies the image of him as a crazy man etc. from the ineffectual left, at least on foreign policy. Domestically who could embrace debt environmental cataclysm and right-wing gilded hackery? But wasn’t DT obsessed with foreign policy from way back? Give the devil his due. Very interesting survey.
The foreign policy of the most powerful country in the world has been reduced to gambling odds.
How could we have gone from Obama to Trump so rapidly?
What did we, as Americans, do wrong that we were given Obama who restored the dignity of the office of the President to Trump who had disgraced the office at every turn?
3
@SridharC Let's see - many of us were lazy and did not bother to read analysis or even facts about policy, the law, and Trump.
Others were lazy and did not bother to vote at all.
Others voted like it was a child's game with a desire to blow things up and not care about the consequences.
People with power and money stoked the flames of misinformation - looking at you, Fox and Sinclair news, and Facebook.
Republicans in power who know better are also ruled by greed, religious rigidity, and black and white thinking.
Congress has no idea of what people need because they are millionaires and have gold plated health care and pensions, unlike the rest of us.
Some people with power and money value greed over the health of planet, the health of the citizens, the health of anything alive.
The real question is do many Americans deserve the right to vote? Does the electoral college deserve its vote? Does Congress, which has shamefully abrogated its duty to America and Americans, deserve to even get paid?
2
David Sanger itemised 6 issues where Trump needs a diplomatic win.Trump may need it for his ego,but not for his politics.Trump has fully won over his base,who are not interested in foreign issues.Trump’s base do not feel threatened by Iran or Russia now.John Bolton did serve as a”useful idiot”for Trump.Bolton may think he brought great intellect to the table.Bolton served to support Trump,again as an optical prop.Trump knows that”Washington Tough Guys”get you into wars.Remember George Bush:How tough guy Wolfowitz ,etc got him into Iraq war&cost USA a trillion dollars,
Sanger’s 6 times:
1.North Korea was won optically.Nothing further needed.Kim simply will keep quiet to get Trump elected.
2.Russia does not matter to Americans.No American thinks Russia will attack USA.Like Korea,Trump needs a quiet Russia in 2020&Russia will oblige.
3.Middle East:Middle East rulers love Trump&may create a temporary”optic victory”for Trump to get him elected.
4.Trump wants a deal with Iran.Iran looks like a loose cannon, Concessions will be made.Iran would be smart to pretend to give Trump a win.Think Iran has got a message that Trump wants an Optic Win.
5.China is a tough issue.But China may agree to helpTrump &resume buying farm products.Huawei has agreed to sellout to a Western compamy.China may buy time.
6.Afghanistan matters to Americans-a bad memory.Trump may pullout troops&say he won.Sanger may disagree with me:Trump will win the Optics war.Of course,Trump must not start fresh issues!
The only reason Trump has been the only president to meet with a NK leader is because the others refused to meet with dictators who refused to discuss the blood on their hands.
2
Trump does not need any of these 'victories' before Election Day 2020.
He needs the economy to be healthy. Right now, according to the Consumer Confidence Survey, voters are concerned about a recession next year and the impact on them due to the sanctions.
"It's the economy stupid." Foreign policy victories do not win elections. George H.W. Bush had foreign policy victories and a recession. He lost.
If it hits my pocket/purse, you (Trump) are in trouble. That's why he's lobbying for lower interest rates.
Hard to "win" when you've no idea what the game actually is.
4
Thanks for this fair assessment of the major foreign policy challenges of the moment. I can actually share this article with my conservative friends, and get a reasonable conversation going - without incensing them. And that’s important, but somehow rare for content in the NYT.
1
Mr. Sanger always has a good article as is this one. What he says is pretty much true but the article gives the impression that all of this might have a big impact on the 2020 election.
In my opinion foreign policy will have little to no effect on the 2020 election unless there is a war or something catastrophic happens. Most of his supporters did not vote for The Donald on the basis of foreign policy questions. Lets face it, most Americans don't know or care much about foreign policy.
The evangelical Christians care about Iran because Bibi told them it was bad. The Donald will play tough on Iran and string everyone along and his buddy Bibi will probably help him.
The Donald cares about one thing -- himself. He likes being president because he is the center of attention 24/7 even when he is talking nonsense. Everything he does is calculated to be a photo-op situation where he can shine as the great negotiator, the great deal maker, the great weather expert, the great decider. And everything is calculated to appeal to his base.
China is the only point that is questionable because so many business people and CEO don't like The Donald's tariffs.
I don't how much harm this does to The Donald. Of course China should be a concern to the United States not only for trade and economics but for defense and military reasons. They will be our main concern in the future. But The Donald is only thinking about the 2020 election.
3
This op-ed is asking the wrong question.
Foreign relations are not winnable, they are manageable. And the first rule is do no harm.
Often it’s not clear whether administration policies are a success for many years. Carter was right on Egypt/Israel (wrong on Iran); Reagan was right on the Soviet Union; Clinton was wrong on the threat from Al Qaeda; Bush II was wrong on Iraq; and Obama was wrong on the Arab Spring and Syria (don’t know about Iran, but now will never know).
So those being objective here, and I recognize that it’s hard to be objective on Trump, should admit that we won’t know whether his policies are right or wrong for some time. Call me an optimist, but I’m hoping to be pleasantly surprised.
2
It is fair to criticize the President as 99% of the commenters here do. These 6 foreign policy issues are very important to our country and the world.
But perspective please.
Obama and 8 years of Democratic leadership brought us....
1. ZERO in Korea
2. Humiliation in watching the Russians take Crimea, and shoot down a passenger plane.
3. Ridicule in issuing a "Red Line" in Syria, then standing by as Assad continued to gas his people.
4. A high probability that his complete, rapid withdrawal of all our military in Iraq, created the abililty for ISIS to rise to the power it had, in destroying a 100,000 souls in the mid-east
5. Virtually ZERO in the response to China's stealing of IP, military, commercial secrets, to destruction on US soil of Sonys Computer Data (The interview), currency manipulation, and the list goes on.
6. Syria, Bengazi - disasters.
7. and the crown jewel of the Obama "success", his Iran deal, though successful in halting Iran nuclear aspirations, ONLY HAD a 10 year clock attached. For many who know Iran, (and China), 10 years is but a minute in their "long game".
So if Trump is a "failure" as all claim here after 2.5 years, then Obama was an utter failure.
1
What a laugh.
Obama “failed” because he believed in the whole “coequal branch of government” thing, while Republicans believe in party over country.
The Iran deal “failed” as soon as Trump made it fail.
Bengazi? How long do you think it takes to muster a special ops team and prep an aircraft for an unexpected combat mission? Longer than your video games load screen. And what was that diplomat doing to begin with, boy Republicans don’t what anyone asking that question do they?
And what are you doing in LA if you have such detailed knowledge of Iran and China, your country needs you!
My point? International diplomacy is best left up to those who have spent their professional lives working in the field, not silver spoon reality tv stars with a penchant for racist know-it-all bs.
At least Obama knew that, so if he had failures they were honest and came from a place of integrity.
1
Okay, let’s try perspective. Actual perspective.
What’s Trump accomplished in North Korea, again?
If the Crimea’s so humiliating, why’s Trump trying to get Putin back into the G7? Crimea’s why he got thrown out of it.
Right. Assad ain’t hurt nobody since Trump took over.
Hey, ain’t Trump demanding an immediate leave from Afghanistan? Isn’t ISIS resurfacing?
TPP much?
Yeah, now Syria’s a garden spot, and Iran and Russia gained nothing.
Pookie, that ten years was to buy time and shut down their nukes program. What’s the plan now?
1
Are we even sure Candidate Trump even knew he'd be responsible for foreign policy and diplomacy? He didn't know he would have to replace the staff or that he would have to be a co-equal branch with the congress. Not sure this guy ever passed a civics class in his life but as with everything tRump no records are forthcoming. He's president for 3 things 1) get on TV 2) make money 3) get rid of all things Obama
3
It’s emblematic of this insane administration that a “win” on Iran means essentially to go back to the parameters of the Obama Iran deal that Trump so eagerly pulled out of at the outset of his term.
304
@Vin But that's the entire reason he ran for President. Anything with Obama's name for it must be destroyed. If he ever actually releases a health plan, it will be nearly identical to Obamacare, but it won't be so bad because it doesn't have Obama's name on it.
3
@Vin
Exactly, the deal will be repackaged with Trump's red ribbon on it but it won't look any different than the current deal. Just watch how 45 will twist it to look like he invented it and how Americans will fall for this. And to say that the "wild card" is Rouhani is a typo, no?
5
David Sanger is a wonderful journalist, but I take issue with the conclusions about Iran and Afghanistan.
The allies and the Obama administration negotiated a good outcome with the agreement Trump tore up. Hard to imagine a "not bad" outcome under Trump.
As for Afghanistan, I can't get past embarking on negotiations with the Taliban without including joint or at least parallel talks with the government. President Ghani didn't even know the talks were going on, and Trump has insulted him and all Americans by secretly holding the one-sided talks at Camp David. As if he has the stature of President Carter and the groundwork that preceded those talks.
Not to obsess about Afghanistan, but it is among the most confused and disorderly foreign engagements ever, with the objectives changing all the time. And at the end, Trump is willing to abandon all the woman to burial in the ground, finished off by stoning. An appalling conclusion that Trump doesn't even seem to be aware of. Would someone with Trump access please tell him that's not an acceptable fate for all those young women people have been laboriously educating for decades now?!
8
Trump wants a photo op at Camp David irrespective of whether any agreement with any country or any group will or will not endanger the security of the country. He merely wants the self aggrandizement that may accompany such “achievement “ with his base and possibly, a la Obama, garner the Peace Prize which may help his chances of re-election. With no one around to advise him on the benefits and risks associated with a foreign policy diplomatic “achievement,” and with the talk of Pompeo doing double duty by becoming NSA, we have a smiling, lackey yes man “advising” our C in C.
Hopefully 45 will be fully occupied watching tv and tweeting and avoid any real presidential foreign policy decisions.
4
The win in Afghanistan will be the same as the win we had in Vietnam, withdrawal of American troops followed by a Taliban takeover of the country. Fortunately for Trump, like Nixon, he won't be around when the collapse occurs.
9
Diplomacy demands strategy. Trump doesn’t do strategy; he is at best a transactional thinker. A classic case of skills mismatch.
5
In his book, Confront and Conceal, Mr. Sanger also gave fair criticisms of President Obama’s idealistic approach to foreign affairs, which contrasted with President GW Bush’s hawkish style. Both tactics had hard failings, so I don’t blame President Trump for trying to achieve the achievable. As he often says, “We’ll see.”
2
As usual, Sanger along with all of his NYTs colleagues takes great license in making claims about North Korea that are totally unfounded - and unchallenged only because most other pundits let alone readers share his ignorance about U.S. - DPRK relations.
Here's the latest - "And the North hasn’t turned over a list of its weapons, missiles and facilities, which was supposed to be the first step."
"Supposed to..." according to whom?? What is in fact true is that the Singapore agreement declares North Korea's intent to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in parallel with evolving a new, cooperative relation with the U.S. AND concluding the Korean War with a peace agreement.
It's not so difficult to get this right unless, of course, you are writing from a time-worn Cold War narrative about North Korea as Sanger has been doing for two decades.
According to Trump’s chosen special envoy, actually.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/diplomacy/article/2184578/us-again-demands-north-korea-offer-full-disclosure-nukes-risking
1
Why wouldn’t Iran wait and hand a free victory to the New Democratic President. They have form in timing around US elections.
2
@John Stroughair They waited out Carter in favor of Reagan. So, yes, they have played the game before.
1
You only thing you need to know about Trump's "gambles" is that he drove a casino into bankruptcy. In fact, he drives everything he touches into bankruptcy. Morally, ethically, logically, scientifically, physically, mentally, financially - into bankruptcy.
11
Given Trump's incompetence, his erratic behavior, and his strange worship of dictators, along with the chaos in his national security apparatus, I don't think we have much chance of major diplomatic successes as long as he is in office.
9
Under Trump administration, the US stands alone internationally and no countries trust him- foes and allies alike. All 6 gambles are going nowhere and will end prematurely. The petulant and incompetent Trump places his ego ahead of the interest of the country has not only damaging the US's role as an honest broker but also made the world a more dangerous place.
8
Why is Xi playing the long game and Trump for 2020? It seems more likely to be the opposite. Xi thinks he can get a better deal from a weak kneed Democrat so he is the one playing for 2020. Trump is playing the long game. He may not even win re-election but his Legacy will be Assured. The ONLY President to Take On China will be on his Graveston. Xi is making a huge mistake too. Trump won't lose in 2020 then what will Xi do? Whatever our President requires him to to get a deal so go ahead and delay Xi, this author says you should.
@GregP.......Trumps " legacy: will be assured!?.I can hardly wait to hear what his so called legacy is..aside from Failure with a Capital F
2
It increases my admiration for the NYT’s desire to be fair and balanced that they published this contribution. Good on yer, NYT.
1
Trump's approach is simply far too "personality" based. No wonder he is has a very hard time dealing (or at the very least, acting constructively) with leaders of western democracies. No wonder he likes dictators...regardless of what political ideology they conform to. His idiotic "man-to-man" style of diplomacy is simply not a sustainable way to run a foreign policy and should be rejected by voters next year. Carter's Camp David event is an interesting comparison but it involved far more skilled individual and a Carter and Sadat both willing to try this "Hail Mary pass" engagement towards an extremely truculent Menachem Begin. Suppose Trump's KFC finally catches up with him and he has a heart attack. Does anyone with half a brain believe Pence could carry the Trump doctrine (whatever that is) forward?
3
If Trump ends the sanctions on Iran, he will have exactly nothing better than what Obama achieved. He can claim a victory but he's going to be doing so solo.
The rest of if it is a big, no. Trump will succeed in achieving nothing in any other of the situations discussed.
Trump is a big bozo when it comes to foreign policy. It's clear that he never understood the subject and does not, now.
6
Core issue for America going forward:
Is manhood a matter of winning-vs-losing? (And it is fairly gender-specific; for our definition of manhood being central).
Trump is extremely—radically—old school. To be a man is to be a “winner;” and to be a winner means somebody else must be made, by that winner, to be a loser. It’s a King-of-the-Mountain notion of manhood; and the world view it’s based on, almost explicitly, is dog-eat-dog.
Thus, for the country (any country run by people who share this mindset), it’s always time to make “others”—that is, foreigners and even fellow-citizens deemed to be dead wood—into losers. It’s time to put up walls that clarify who’s “in” and who’s “out.”
The idea of sharing the wealth, of lending a helping hand, of the Golden Rule, of kindness-for-kindness’s sake, is seen as antithetical to being a winner—that is, dominant, King of the Mountain.
Is this really where we want to go as a country? Is it necessary? Is it smart? Is it even in our national interest?
77
Yep. It’s imbecelic, and it’s why we get these endless drivels about how people like Obama and Pelosi lack guts.
Basically, the “leftists,” who go off about such things might’s well be Trump, insofar as their fantasy about how things should get done is a male fantasy. Really, they’d be better off with “Hulk SMASH,” because Hulk was smarter.
In short I agree: these are tough guy fantasies. And they’re always a fraud. Tough guys never tell you they’re tough guys, or stand on the sidelines and yell about how you gotta get in there and throw some punches.
5
Mr. Sanger’s characterization of Trump’s potential foreign policy opportunities is the most tactful analysis I have yet seen of why Trump is utterly incompetent and unfit for Office. When the rest of the world’s foreign policy establishment plays Go or Chess, and you are playing solitaire while your remaining advisors are playing poker, it is time to return to marketing your brand in the real estate bankruptcy business. A little bit of self-awareness would have gone a long way to creating a viable presidency for Trump. It’s a shame he has none.
54
@D. Smith
It’s sort of like Trump is playing by himself while watching tv.
9
These are all self-inflicted diplomatic loses, to begin with, so any "wins" would have to be considered as "the patient stopped hitting himself with a hammer". TPP reigned in China, Iran was following the nuclear accord, The Paris accords were unanimously agreed to by every nation on the planet, NATO and sanctions were holding Russia in it's place and NK was treated with the disrespect all other administrations showed it's crazy rulers. When Trump decided that he would cancel all agreements initiated by Obama he sealed his fate as someone who wasn't looking for "Wins", he was looking for 'Revenge".
142
The president uses an erratic scattershot approach to everything. Nothing is based on the tenets of our foreign policy that have been successful for decades. His idiosyncratic approach to foreign policy — as a series of deals rather than a philosophy of how American hard and soft power is deployed are manifest in his judgments. This is an error that could affect our power in the long future, a standard established many times over.
18
Most presidents try and develop a coherent foreign policy. This lets friends and foes alike know where the administration stands.
But Trump, true to form is all over the place. His engagement with N. Korea was a good move. But then he turned negotiations over the hawks and they stalled.
His canceling the treaty with Iran was a bad move. He could have easily used the treaty as a base to engage on other issues, such as missiles and area stability. Instead, in an effort to please Bibi he scuttled the deal and now has boxed himself into a position of belligerency.
His China negotiations could have been a real coup. China was willing to make a number of concessions to the US. But again, the neocons took over the trade war ensued.
NATO doesn't know where they stand, except they're expected to buy more US made weapons.
The Saudi's have been playing Trump like a drum. We still support them in their war against Yemen while they murder journalists and throw gay men off of buildings.
And Trump's efforts to undo Obama's rapprochement with Cuba has not, and will not produce anything but suffering for the Cuban people.
And unilaterally designating the president of Venezuela, as if Emperor Trump was appointing a vassal has written a new chapter in "The Ugly American."
Trump might salvage some of these disasters, the China trade deal for example. But belligerency and threats has produced little except new global tensions.
Final grade, C+ for effort D- for execution.
12
If one assumes that prior behavior is an excellent predictor of future behavior, then Trump is pretty easy to handicap. ALL of the subject problems will be “solved” in one of several Trumpian ways, to whit: 1. Potemkin Village – promote a false-front image of something that has no real substance, i.e., Trump’s North Korea “ground breaking” agreements that are essentially empty rhetoric and unfulfilled promises. 2. Trump branding – just as Trump hasn’t built anything in decades, his entire business model involves slapping his name on something that already exists while nevertheless taking credit for the entire project, i.e., the USMCA agreement that is basically NAFTA with a new “Trumpy name.” 3. Lie boldly – verbalize some nonsensical, illogical, or impossible claim and then just go off and ignore it and move on to the next lie, i.e., “Mexico is going to pay for the wall.” 4. Working on it – respond to every question about issues in which no objective evidence exists for any substantive solution, with the amorphous “We have some very good people working on it right now, but I cannot tell you any details,” i.e., the alleged ACA replacement that Trump blathered about during his campaign but which does not exist. As the election gets closer, Trump and his toadies, lackeys, and flunkies will say that ALL of these international problems have been solved, when in fact none will be.
15
''And unlike North Korea, they (Iran) have no nuclear weapons, so they have less to give up.
Many would recommend not betting the Kibbutz on that supposition.
6
@Lawrence
I guess you, like Trump, have little respect for our intelligence agencies.
1
Trump is an odd duck for a rich businessman, he conducts himself like a down on his luck degenerate gambler. Big successes in business and diplomacy are not given to an elect class of people because of their superiority but to serous people who study the facts and prepare for the right time and circumstances for opportunities to succeed. Trump always just bets against the odds in hopes of winning big, meaning he bets to lose.
9
He should read The Art of the Deal.
2
The individual needs to win "bigly" to protect his franchise.
2
Putin and Netanyahu are deliriously happy with a Trump presidency. Vlad because Trump has knocked down the world standing of the US several pegs. Bibi because he has a blind eye turned toward settlement expansion and annexation while the screws are tightened on Iran. Bibi complains vociferously about Iran's support of Hezbollah – which pushed Israel out of Lebanon and continues to block Israeli expansion back in.
4
Oh. Trump wants Obama's solution with Trump's name attached. I imagine he can get Obama's agreement and use his Sharpie to cross out his name and replace it with TRUMP.
7
It will all depend on what Trump's Magic Eight Ball tells him. I hope one of the choices isn't nuke Iran.
16
"The wild card here is Mr. Rouhani because he is unwilling to meet until sanctions are lifted, or so he says."
When it comes to issues concerning Iran, Western journalists rarely provide us with balanced, impartial, views of forces that influence events, in particular when the issues involve the US. The reason for that is they often start with the simplistic notion that that country is a dictatorship run by a bunch of Mullahs. But, in reality, the Iranian politics is far more complex than such "bumper sticker" description and - whether we want to admit it or not - there is an Iranian-style democratic framework superimposed on the country's decisions.
In the Iranian parliament, there are outspoken oppositions to Mr. Rouhani's government, who vehemently criticize his domestic and foreign policy decisions. These critics have been arguing against any negotiation with the US, based on the view that the Trump administration cannot be trusted. And they are powerful enough to bring down Mr. Rouhani's government, should he chooses to meet with Mr. Trump without US declaring its adherence to the terms of the Nuclear Agreement.
In short, there are no wild cards in this case. Iranians have no problem sitting at the negotiation table with the US, the minute US manages to earn their trust. And, based on the words coming from Tehran, there will be no trust until the US reaffirms its commitment to the Nuclear Agreement, which implies lifting of the US economic sanctions.
15
I've been pleasantly surprised at the nuanced view of Iranian leadership I've seen presented in some outlets. PBS Newshour and PBS's Washington Week often outline the challenges of getting the Iranian factions to agree.
3
There is a wildcard. That wildcard is called Trump. And the Iranians are right to distrust him. He changes his mind quicker than a change in Alabama’s weather.
10
I think I can manage to loathe the departure from the JCPOA without being naive about the glorious Iranian government, thank you.
Oh right, it’s ‘art of the deal’ all along, silly American people, now we are enlightened, thank you mr. President.
6
Actually there are no diplomatic policies. That would require actual diplomats, analysts considering reliable intelligence, long range planning, and a leader capable of telling the truth.
What we have is a mentality deranged dishonest greedy man with a unsupervised Twitter account. That’s not policy of any kind.
33
All this talk of foreign policy as re-election poker hands makes me nauseous.
15
As if this has undone all the unimaginable damages this president and his administration have inflicted on the people in this nation.
Did people already forget who hired Bolton in the first place for exactly who he was? Bannnon, Trump, Fox News, the lot.
Now that 2020 is top priority and things clearly are not working out in every foreign policy front, so throw Bolton under the bus is how Trump becomes the savior and the ‘right’ President. Yes suddenly all you hear is how Trump didn’t agree with Bolton’s war mongering
policies or didn’t see eye to eye period. How expediant, what lies.
Are American people really that gullible and clueless? Maybe they are.
22
Winning. It seems to be the end all in the Trump regime - even his critics have adopted this philosophy. There is no such thing - only losing. A winner is whoever lost last or least. There is progress - leaving things less bad than you found them Trump has no concept of that.
4
Sanger does a nice job organizing and explaining the chaos most of us see in reading about Trump's "foreign policy." Whether or not in agreement with Sanger's conclusions, a piece like this is useful.
9
Re “he’s playing solitaire. ”
He can’t win at solitaire
6
Trump wants only one thing: The Nobel Prize for Peace, and anyone who gets in the way will share Bolton’s fate.
4
Decades of history have proved without a doubt that Donald Trump cannot be trusted to honor any deal, contract, legal agreement, or handshake agreement. Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he simply cannot be trusted. Consequently, any leader in the world who makes an agreement with Donald Trump is naive, foolish, or crazy.
29
Signing a deal now with anybody would be way too early. Trump plans signing big “deals” with China, NK and Iran late next summer, claiming big wins just in time for the election. Of course we all know the deals are the same with a different name, but that it should be good enough for the base to re-elect him.
4
How can there be Big Diplomatic Wins when there a no
Diplomats?
12
Excellent question.
4
Looking at the recent poll results from N Carolina thsi week its unlikely Trump needs any wins anywhere and will still get elected.
His Line is interesting "These extreme Left Dems will destroy all you have built "
It will work with anyone who came from Europe! if you do not agree you are too idealistic or live in the "Snob" Metro cities like myself!
NC is a gerrymandered super red district. Went for Trump 12. Dems picked up 10 of those. I wouldn’t worry about it unless your a Republican.
6
@weary traveller
Europe has reached its (current, don't forget Nazism) right swing.
We are a center left population, as demonstrated by the last 7 presidential elections which went to Democrats. Granted, they were centrist or conservative, but that was the best option among conservative candidates.
1
Trump is not going to get North Korea to denuclearize because Kim Jong-un has no reason to trust the US not to attempt regime change.
Trump could negotiate a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War. That would be a doable, sensible move, but the Washington foreign policy establishment and the military industrial complex may not allow it.
Hopefully, Trump will bring troops home from Afghanistan. While the Washington foreign policy establishment/military industrial complex might allow some troops to leave Afghanistan they intend a presence in Afghanistan permanently. Afghanistan is a ‘fortress’ with colossal strategic potential if one is planning for a future war with Iran, Russia or China. Afghanistan is sitting virtually across the route of the New Silk Road the Chinese are building to consolidate and expand their control of the Eurasian land mass, which is the future economic powerhouse of this century. The US is determined to push its’ way into Eurasia, with or without the ‘permission’ of the Russians and the Chinese.
There are also minerals to control and pipelines to prevent.
I truly pity Afghanistan, and it is very natural that continued US presence, particularly of the CIA/special forces type will create more terrorism.
A foreign policy emphasizing listening, engaged diplomacy with minimal to no use of the military would make for a more stable sustainable world.
The US would be safer, it did not insist on dominating the world.
1
David Sanger has considerable experience in foreign policy but I think that he is over-optimistic. Yes, a NORMAL president would have reasonable chances at success in several of these areas. A normal President would do the preparation and groundwork, would build a realistic relationship (not a bromance, like Trump keeps announcing he has with Kim and Putin) with whomever he was negotiating with and would gather allies to assist him. President Trump prefers to publicly scorn allies. Preparation? He prefers to spend his time tweeting, playing golf, and bullying.
16
@Marvant Duhon
And besides, Trump's goal in foreign policy is NOT to achieve deals that benefit the USA or our allies. As he has repeatedly demonstrated, he just wants something however flimsy that he can CLAIM is a victory.
6
Seems to me that Trump has given Kim a lot of leverage. Imagine during next year's campaign North Korea hinting it's about to test a nuke. What concessions would Trump be willing to make to prevent this?
4
It's almost cute that people can still write article with a straight face that imagine Donald Trump as capable of performing adult actions. Shrieking on Twitter about how the "radical moose lambs are destroying America" isn't diplomacy.
As others pointed out: the goals listed are goals real adults would pursue. They are not the Trump Show goals. The Trump Show goals are:
1. Use presidency to enrich self
2. That's it
21
Trump will get all the wins he wants because he will lie, the GOP will support him and, despite any evidence to the contrary, his base will believe him. I've said this a lot in the last two years: Trump waged a war on truth and truth lost.
13
@Mark Duhe
Yeah, Truth almost won last weekend but Trump fought it off.
While I truly believe Trump could give a flying flamingo about peace and saving lives from needles, endless war- it’s all about him- , that said, his approach may yield results. The North Korean gambit is a perfect example of a Trump-first-everyone-else-second where his unorthodox approach and personal involvement may actually and irony yield dividends. Can you imagine if Obama, a Nobel Peace Prize winner had the guts to buck convention and ignore our diplomatic and intelligence “experts” ? We’ve all seen it. A promising politician corralled by the Washington bubble to prolong and maintain the status quo. Sometimes a personal relationship among leaders can smooth the way and open a lane for the diplomats as Reagan did with Gorbachev, leading to landmark nuclear deal. What is a fact is that the absence of the war monger, John Bolton, can only help lead to some kind of peace agreement and prevent reckless regime change war whether in Iran, North Korea or Venezuela.
2
@FXQ - Trump is neither Reagan or Gorbachev. The reason that our diplomatic efforts are floundering is that he ignores the advice of professional intelligence and diplomatic officers. As evidenced by Trump's dealings with North Korea and China, we will end up with the short end of the stick on any agreement he fosters.
53
@FXQ, who knew, it’s all John Bolton’s fault all along. Now that he is under the bus we are finally on our merry way again.
Please.
5
You’re confusing guts with being stupid and arrogant.
3
"Mr. Trump remains convinced that Mr. Kim will be impressed by the prospect of new hotels on the (heavily mined) beaches of North Korea’s east coast." Why does this sound like a real estate deal for Trump rather than a treaty with the best interest of the US to me? I guess I just don't understand diplomacy. Pardon my ignorance.
18
The problem is that Trump is not seeking agreements that further US national security, he's looking to make a big splash and a win--whatever that is--for himself...hence the ludicrous notion of inviting the Taliban to Camp David, among his other harebrained ideas. I do hope his cabinet and advisors find a shred of patriotism, and that the repubs in the Senate do likewise, and keep him from selling the country out to make himself look good.
6
@Jim R.
for you, is patriotism having our military all over the globe, constantly creating more hate, more terrorists, making the US less safe, the world less stable and sustainable... and putting the US into huge debt for the honor of making the world worse.
1
@Lucy Cooke
What? No, and where does that question come from? Not my comment.
Mr Sanger, usually a reliable journalist, made a faux pas when he labeled he called Trumps approach to foreign policy "idiosyncratic". It would have been correct and proper to label his approach as "idiotic". We should no longer employ euphemisms to disguise Presidential ignorance, malfeasance and incompetence.
29
@diderot
I suppose you saw Obama's foreign policy as reasonable, despite his presidency overseeing the killing of hundreds of thousands of Libyans, Syrians, Yemenis... and wrecking their countries.
Those horrors were Obama's responsibility.
He was ill prepared and not strong enough to lead a foreign policy of which he might have been more proud.
The Iran deal was a positive, but outweighed by the death and wreckage he left behind him.
I'll bet that Trump is not responsible for so much death and destruction at the end of his presidency.
The Washington foreign policy establishment/military industrial complex needs disruption, even shocks to the system.
Go Trump!
Then elect Bernie Sanders in 2020 for a more sane demilitarized foreign policy.
@Lucy Cooke
You forgot to add :Go Putin, Go Kim Jong-Un, Go King Salman, Go Netanyahu. I could go on but I won't
4
@Lucy Cooke
How much do you want to bet? You may only include the first term.
Trump did nothing to stop the wars. You remember the MOAB? I do. Largest single weapon used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That was Trump.
I ask again, how much do you want to bet?
1
Nothing gambled, nothing gained
For all his faults, Trumps foreign policy is better than Obama's that left Russia in control of Syria, Iraq in control of Iran, and China in control of much of the South China Sea.
1
Iraq in control of Iran???
3
Russia can have Syria. Iraq is not in control of Iran. It’s their sea. What is Trump’s foreign policy?
2
Syria has always been Russia's ally and Iraq is not in control of Iran at all. As usual, anyone supporting Trump has a very weak grasp of the facts.
1
It seems to me as if the Times' journalist are trying their best to convince themselves and the readers that we are dealing with a normal US president. He is not. He doesn't have any policies. It's all about Trump.
1-Meeting North Korea leader and declaring after the first meeting that North Korea wasn't a nuclear threat anymore. Going to the demilitarized zone and crossing into North Korea. Those were just photo-op and be remembered as the FIRST US president to do that.
2- Regarding Iran, it was just about undoing what former president Obama did. Now Mr Trump is willing to go back to that . Having a meeting with Rouhani would also make him the FIRST US president to do so in the last 40 years.
3- Regarding China, Trump called himself the "Chosen one", and made him the FIRST US president to confront China since Nixon trip to China.
4- The Afghan peace plan failed because Trump who can't find Afghanistan on the map wanted to be the one on TV finalizing the negotiations. Photo-op
5- Regarding the Middle East , you can pretend to achieve peace in a difficult region by giving your inexperienced son-in-law, the key to the most dangerous region in the World. Putting Kushner in charge of the Middle East was to put a family member in charge of where the easy money is.
5- As for Russia, it's all about returning the favors to the guy who helped put him in the White House.
In foreign policies like in everything else, it's all about Trump. Nothing else
22
Uncle Sam has dropped six trillion dollars on counter-productive wars in the Middle East. Too bad that money was not invested in constructing a grid system to transfer wind power from the Great Plains to the rest of the country. In that case, the USA would now have abundant, free, sustainable electric power forever. But, no, for eight long years Obama wasted the taxpayers' money over there. If Donald J. Trump get this country out of Afghanistan it will be a huge step in the right direction.
1
I’m afraid that I’m pretty sure the NAFTA revamp is the model here: lots of bellowing and posturing, followed by minor changes or successes, followed by triumphant rebranding and brays about victory, followed by it sits on McConnell’s desk forever.
And I’m sorry, but one other likely thing is that trump’s sheer incompetence and stupidity gets one of these problems to detonate. And I mean that literally.
16
It’s impossible to make a serious deal with a pathological liar.
On the other hand, it’s possible to make some ego-stroking announcements with a dealish tone, and the leaders of North Korea etc. are no doubt carefully weighing the pros and cons of doing so.
Trump is weak. There are many advantages to having a weak man in the office of the President.
8
Not sure the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is a "win". We can do that without the Taliban's consent. If the end result is a Taliban takeover after 18 years of blood and treasure (which is likely) I would call that a huge failure, though I wouldn't lay it on Trump's doorstep. We should have gotten out when Al Quaeda was defeated.
6
The key here is, who would our adversaries rather deal with in January 2021: Trump, or one of the alternatives? Trump is like a dog that will predictably roll over for treats and tummy rubs, and can thus be manipulated to a certain extent, but what's to prevent him from biting your leg anyway?
Actually, notwithstanding his extremely short attention span, willful and profound ignorance, lack of a coherent worldview and manifest psychological deficiencies, they might feel they can get more out of him than from Elizabeth, Joe or whomever. That's because foreign policy is fundamentally strategic and is all about taking the long view. It is not about photo ops and tummy rubs. It may be to their advantage to keep the adult diplomats locked up and just keep tossing the treats and, who's a good boy?
10
The key here is, who would our adversaries rather deal with in January 2021: Trump, or one of the alternatives? Trump is like a dog that will predictably roll over for treats and tummy rubs, and can thus be manipulated to a certain extent, but what's to prevent him from biting your leg anyway?
Actually, notwithstanding his extremely short attention span, willful and profound ignorance, lack of a coherent worldview and manifest psychological deficiencies, they might feel they can get more out of him than from Elizabeth, Joe or whomever. That's because foreign policy is fundamentally strategic and is all about taking the long view. It is not about photo ops and tummy rubs. It may be to their advantage to keep the adult diplomats locked up and just keep tossing the treats and, who's a good boy?
1
The key here is, who would our adversaries rather deal with in January 2021: Trump, or one of the alternatives? Trump is like a dog that will predictably roll over for treats and tummy rubs, and can thus be manipulated to a certain extent, but what's to prevent him from biting your leg anyway?
Actually, notwithstanding his extremely short attention span, willful and profound ignorance, lack of a coherent worldview and manifest psychological deficiencies, they might feel they can get more out of him than from Elizabeth, Joe or whomever. That's because foreign policy is fundamentally strategic and is all about taking the long view. It is not about photo ops and tummy rubs. It may be to their advantage to keep the adult diplomats locked up and just keep tossing the treats and, who's a good boy?
Why do you think he needs victories ? He needs talking points and scapegoats, thats all.
4
I’d like to be happy about the smart warmonger’s departure, but it leaves the fool in charge.
8
It is “diplunacy” and not diplomacy.
5
Sorry, but the words ‘manage’ and ‘Trump’ should not appear in the same sentence.
7
Wrong. Trump could care less. He wants the appearance of a big win, he wants a photo op, a bully pulpit from which to bloviate and bluster and beat his chest like Tarzan.
Trump has no concern for substance. Shake hands with Kim Jong Un at the DMZ — Mission Accomplished! So what if the missiles are still flying and the centrifuges are spinning wildly.
Fiddle with NAFTA, give it a new name — declare victory over ‘globalists’ and Western Hemisphere allies. Who cares if it’s essentially unchanged or that Congressional passage is unlikely.
Impose tariffs, then repeat the ludicrous fantasy that tariffs are not taxes on American businesses and consumers — oh no, not at all! China pays us billions! We’re winning!
Declare ‘we’re opening up the mines, we’re building new factories, millions of new jobs!’ So what if the mining industry remains in decline and employs fewer people in all 50 states than amazon employs in Seattle alone. Who cares if manufacturing investment and employment has in fact slowed since his election?
“The tax cuts pay for themselves”! Pay no attention to the $1 trillion deficit behind the curtain!
This is reality TV, not reality. Trump ‘loves the uneducated,’ and he’s banking on the stupidity and willful ignorance of tens of millions of Americans to keep his Barnum & Bailey freak show going. Thus far, it seems he knows how to count well enough.
17
Mr. Trump remains convinced that Mr. Kim will be impressed by the prospect of new hotels on the (heavily mined) beaches of North Korea’s east coast....
Will Pence be asked to stay in these hotels?
“I do believe they would like to make a deal,” Mr. Trump said on Wednesday. “If they do, that’s great. If they don’t, that’s great, too.”
And what if they can't decide whether to make a deal or not. Oh, that's also great. Great, great, great.
Mr. Bolton’s argument that this was a crazy idea precipitated this week’s rupture.
For once I agree with Bolton: Trump's ideas, in those rare instances when they're comprehensible, are pretty much all crazy.
the Kushner peace plan.
The WHAT plan? Are we slumlords negotiating with abused tenants?
8
Every day/minute, Trump conjures up a situation that he hopes will end up making him look good. He wants to meet with any international leader anywhere anytime. He has 400 days left to do something that he can call a victory, which he can then brag about. So far, he’s o’fer.
He has less mobility domestically, so instead he harms us in the rest of the world.
7
On the Iran deal, we are currently worse off than when Trump took office. He wants the negotiations to produce a better result than the 2015 agreement, but if nothing happens he will have made the world less safe. This is diplomacy at its worst. If he did not like the deal in 2015, the smart approach would be to negotiate a better deal while leaving that in place. That could have been done through stick and carrot --- sanctions and foreign aid -- without giving Iran the opportunity to build a weapon. Had those negotiations failed, we would still be better off today.
5
All the hotspots know that Trump desperately needs a victory or two before next year's elections, less than 14 months away. For a successful agreement in Trump's mind, they know that he will give away much more than he originally intended in his braggadocios tweets and speeches. They calculate the odds of a Democratic victory and the prospects of reaching agreements with the new administration's estimated policies. Which hotspot country can wait in the hopes of getting a better deal or at least a more predictable long-term outcome? In this category I would place Iran, China, and the Palestinians, but not Korea with Kim having Trump's number for a partial deal. Russia would likely want the US not to reach any deal in the hope of maintaining the intra-American polarization and thereby weakening America's foreign influence.
8
So far, Trump's big narcissistic ego that is as impulsive as it is impatient has kept him from an "easy win" in his tariff-tax trade war with China; his sanctions escalation with Iran seeking a "much better deal" than the multinational nuclear accord; his "ultimate deal" for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority; a deal for a "denuclearized" Korean peninsula; or, most recently, a peace deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan. What we are seeing is that like so many people his "Art of the Deal" really represents his fundamental inability to make good deals. So look for a bad or raw deal coming soon to be anointed, spun, or "branded" in true narcissistic Trump fashion as "terrific," "great," the "best deal by any president ever" with his chorus of "yes men" singing his grandiose praises.
10
You mean Jared Kushner will not be singlehandidly bringing peace to the middle Middle East? I would have lost a bet on that one.
15
Great roundup, thank you!
8
Maybe Trump can ask Obama for advice.
23
Swing at the fences.
Historically, Putin is always easier to deal with, and causes less trouble, when the Russian economy is doing POORLY. It's only recently that his poll numbers have dropped, so his shenanigans have come when the economy is down. But helping their economy will not quiet him down.
1
Trump is a very transaction based thinker and doer.
He exhibits almost no methodical or strategic thinking and action at all.. and never has. If he had.. he would not have gone bankrupt multiple times in his business career. Yet is is able to transactionaly manipulate banks and other lenders to get himself out of personal financial disaster.. leaving others holding the debt bags.
In foreign policy for a nation like the US.. it is ALL ABOUT strategic thinking and intent, followed up by methodical carry-through to support said thinking and intent.
This is why Trump is such a failure on foreign policy.. and frankly any policy that is more complicated then eating a stack of hamburgers for dinner.
30
The country or countries involved in each of these situations know about the other situations. They know Trump has no wins so far. They know he has alienated most American allies. They know he is facing re-election. He is stretched too thin, he is operating on too many fronts.
They also know he is a sucker for personal flattery and self-aggrandizement, which will cause them to try this before they offer anything real.
His "America First" policies mean that he must "win" on any deal with another country, which, by definition, makes the leader of a country that reaches agreement with Trump the loser. This is a deterrent to agreements
It is pretty clear that this is not going to work.
Master negotiator? I don't think so.
26
Just like the proposed revised NAFTA treaty and the recent Republican congressional win in North Carolina, Trump's "wins" are largely about his spin. He will claim a win where none really exists and will blatantly ("the wall is being built!") if necessary. His shrinking base will believe him, the Republicans will hide their heads in the sand, Hannity and others on Fox News will praise him, and Democrats and the mainstream media will use facts and logic to point out the obvious - these are not wins. The emperor definitely has no clothes. And when it comes to international affairs, he's dangerous.
18
It's hard to know where to start here given the potential crises that could eventuate between now and the 20220 election. For starters it is a good move by Trump to send Bolton (i.e., the reincarnate of Cheney and Rumsfeld) packing but beyond that there is little positive to say about Trump's foreign policy accomplishments or direction. He has spent almost three years gutting the State Department and undermining his intelligence agencies, the people who largely formulate and implement foreign policy. He has relentlessly spent the same amount of time gutting any and all foreign policy agreements and treaties developed by the Obama administration. He has given no indication that he particularly understands, considers or cares about global issues and the intricate dance between foreign policy, diplomacy and economic dynamics - he is not a thinker and his cryptic, bombastic rants and pronouncements have not changed since he first bumbled (with considerable assistance) onto the stage, For Trump there is a vision, always. And this is where he envisions himself as a messianic figure who brokers THE deal and brings him the ignored recognition (and guess what he hopes - a Nobel!) he always craves to fill the insatiable ego that propels him. Concern for the country, a vision for America, sorry not from this man.
16
Trump will declare he is winning whenever he feels like it. He doesn't live in reality and never has. It doesn't matter what he says since everything he says is a lie. Hopefully folks can see the con man for what he is in 2020.
57
@Jacquie
From what we saw in NC’a 8th district, don’t count on it, unfortunately. Even though it was a tight race, the R won and a win is a win.
I hate what is happening.
6
@Claire I fear Trump and the Republicans will cheat their way to a 2nd term by cheating, voter suppression, closing polling places, and using foreign governments to interfere with our election.
I hope Democrats can overcome with a blue wave but I am not holding my breath.
10
@Jacquie
I am totally with you on this. I've been wondering what would happen if Trump refuses to leave the White House OR cancels elections. I wouldn't put it past him or his "advisors."
One cannot believe the Republicans in Congress are letting him get away with everything, but they are.
In order to have “diplomatic wins” one actually has to practice diplomacy. That practice went out the window when the current occupant of the White House took office.
28
Actually I think the prospects for a win for Trump are basically zero on every single one of these issues. Trump has proven repeatedly to the world that he has no attention span, he lies constantly, and there is no reason to trust him. So North Korea, Iran, Russia, and everyone else, will just flatter him and wait for him to focus on something else, maybe he'll go attack Miley Cyrus.
North Korea for certain will not give up its nuclear weapons. Iran will strive to get some as the only way to ensure their safety. Russia will never do Trump's bidding, it's much the reverse. China will not back down in the tariff war. And of course there is no chance of peace between Israel and the Palestinians, not under any circumstances.
So Trump will fail in all these things but I'm certain he will lie about it and insist he succeeded, and his witless supporters will believe his lies as always. He won't win any more voters over, but he won't lose any due to his total incompetence and failure in foreign policy.
21
When you start with zero credibility, I would say that the odds of any significant gains are zero. There is, however, still a significant chance that Trump will "sell the farm" and claim success.
24
When W wanted to play cowboy and go for the grand effect, he invaded a sovereign nation unconnected to 911 and turned us into a surveillance nation with nearly unlimited executive power.
What more damage will this Republican do, I wonder.
36
This entire fiasco can be summed-up in one simple phrase: Epic Failure.
34
Your Headline offers, [t]rump Wants Big Diplomatic Wins."
But: Whereas I have every reason to expect that his wins, big or small, will be 'our' sufferings, my 'want' for him is one big, everlasting ischemic attack 'upon' the muscles in his head as well as in his heart.
(Dear U.S. "intelligence" agencies and operatives: I do not now plan to be, nor will I ever myself plan, or actually be, alone or in any concert with others, involved in any plan or action that might realize my not-so-wanton 'want' … and wish, as herein 'suggested.')
13
Any deal agreed to by Trump, will be a bad deal for the United States. His ineptitude makes him focus on the optics and not the substance of any of these deals. Even allies, do not trust him at this point. And by going alone, he has no leverage and is working from a place of weakness. The final straw is that the rest of the world knows that he is probably on his last legs.
21
If Trump truly wants big diplomatic wins he should resign, the country and the world would win big.
108
@BTO The resignation idea actually isn't that far-fetched. It is entirely possible that he will do an "I alone" resignation before the 2020 election, with of course a promise of quick full pardons from Pence prior to January 2021, on the grounds that "I have done enough, it's been a great success, and now I'm going to retire."
6
@C.L.S.
Given his extreme reaction to any criticism, even in the face of convincing evidence to the contrary, makes me doubt he would -- or even could -- consider resignation. I believe that, to him, it would be the ultimate recognition of his incompetence. I truly believe he would literally rather die the admit he couldn't do the job.
6
@BTO
*Bigly.
1
Trump has spent his first term destroying treaties and creating many of the messes considered in the article.
China Trade; Gaslighting NAFTA and destroying TPP, both of which were a lever against China, BTW.
Iran; Nearly laughable stunt on Trump's part; Destroy the nuke treaty the claim to be negotiating a nuke treaty.
Absurd on the face of it.
Russia; Gaslight NATO and other partners, then cancel sanctions on Russian aggressors in E. Europe. He's not containing Russia, we are their force multiplier.
North Korea; His game seems to be empowering NK, China and Russia at the expense of SK, Japan, Australia and the other TPP nations who are were our friends.
There will be no diplomatic successes because Trump and his team are not diplomats. They are self interested crypto-fascists.
The only outcome for any of these six issues under Trump will be a cataclysm of either local, regional or global proportions.
We can only hope and pray we are rid of this cretinous mime before it's too late.
38
@Chris Morris. You left out two.
Afghanistan: too many of his buddies are making too much dirty money off of our longest war, the perpetual project to reform the graveyard of empires. The 9/11 hysteria hawks will never relent, and our involvement will not likely follow the Viet Nam model, simply because of Afghanistan's wretched combination of technological backwardness and feudal tribalism shot through with religious extremism.
Middle East: his Bibi bromance and Iranophobia are simply making an intractable miasma utterly impossible, and Bonnie Prince Jared is a laughingstock of a diplomat.
In my view, Fat Donnie's gonna run the table in reverse; 0 for 6.
No pain, no gain, Donnie.
2
@Tom
He's given us plenty of pain, and we have seen no discernible gain.
1
What can the proverbial bull in a china shop accomplish? Actually a bull in a china shop would probably cause less damage than Donald Trump has done already to American relationships around the world. Trump has made America the laughingstock of the world. Even his buddies Kim, Putin and Netanyahu snigger in private about his infantile gullibility.
20
For every one of these matters described Donald Trump will make his decisions based on what is best for him and for his re-election, not for what is best for America. Our commander in chief is really commander for himself. Everyone else is eventually a loser in his mind. I hope none of these matters get any worse before Election Day 2020.
11
No World Leader trusts Trump. Not one. Diplomacy requires deals, negotiations, a dependable outcome. He may be the most undependable "leader" in the world we know. N. Korea now conducts missile tests without interference, Iran is negotiating for a huge payday, Russia is free to impose its will on the free world largely in part to Trump's inability to say "no" or fear of Putin. Trump sells fear, illusion and confusion. World leaders know that and will use him the same way white supremacists, right wing Christians and the gun lobby do...then they will throw him out and he will become some other group's mouthpiece. He is simply a bill board that obscures the real game that supports it. The world knows that. Most of our country knows that. Who would ever take his "word" seriously. He will have to make up a diplomatic success...which he will and 30% of our electorate will believe him. He puts the "dip" in diplomacy.
28
Who says Trump's not playing the long game? If one initiative results in a Russian (or North Korean) Trump Casino, he's also got a destination for legal asylum once once he leaves office!
11
From Putin's perspective, Trump is batting a thousand. No employee could perform better. Thanks to him, the top U.S. spy in Russia is out of commission, and I'm sure Trump will share details with the boss.
44
Trump wants two things re this issue.
One is to be adored and the other is to eventually make money off of it.
He doesn't care about America.
Look for him to make deals with all these countries that will either involve the status quo or damage America greatly.
He will then declare he is the greatest president since Lincoln.
This is the price America will pay for electing him and for running an identity obsessed, social engineering, Neo con like Hillary who did not address the issues that Trumped demagogued.
8
The two hypotheticals inferred in these estimates offer a course of surgically skilled diplomacy taking over right now which may get somewhere America wants to be or.....the Donald’s School of Statesmanship.
1
There is no Kushner peace plan. It is simply a mirage.
24
Fat chance. Don't hold your breath.
2
Trump managing anything besides his own egocentric self-image is beyond comprehension.
5
Wait a minute. You forgot the idea of "Buying Greenland." Or maybe he could annex Baffin Island (who owns that, anyway?).
3
Looks like he's a lame duck on all fronts here. they're just going to wait him out (out of office,that is). Looks like they have all decided he's going to loose in 2020. We can only vote and hope they are right.
5
Oh, please! When will you stop acting as if he has real skills or even knows what a good goal would be?!
He will do what he's done with NK: blabber, then lie to claim he's achieved something.
NK is still testing missiles—ones that can hit our allies. Our allies are nervous, but Trump doesn't even know what a realistic goal would be from any particular round of talks.
Why don't you write the real article: Trump is playing with volatile situations when he has no skills, a declining brain, and interest in nothing but inflating himself?
9
Just create one with your black sharpie.
2
The only goal of this corrupt administration and of its president is self enrichment. There is no interest whatsoever in improving geopolitics which may lead to an impeding disaster at any moment.
71
He's batting 0.000, and doesn't know how to pitch. Time to send him back to the minor leagues.
19
Trump doesn’t do anything of substance, it is all an illusion because his supporters will believe anything he says. Why do anything if just saying it makes it so? Photo optics and stage craft is all we will get of substance from this administration the rest is just salesmanship, verbal manipulation and lies.
13
Thank you, Mr.Sanger for a comprehensive analysis of the challenges facing Trump.He has so much to do and so little time.So far he has wasted valuable time trying to undo every initiative instituted by Mr.Obama.He has traveled the world stage alienating allies and looking for friends among autocrats.He has abandoned American values in favor of personal relationships which may benefit him and his family.I would bet that accommodation with China does happen only because the trade war is hurting our economy and the stock market is the only poll Trump looks at to gauge his chances of re-election.
40
The evidence that Trump and his team will succeed is non-existent. America has not had a professional business person in the White house in a long, long time. It is the difference between a member of the Staff (Politician) and an Operations Manager - an Operator (Trump). The staff person will play it safe, say all the right things politically, do all the right things politically all day long and get little accomplished. An Operator will do whatever it takes that is legal to make it happen.
Will Trump get it done overseas, I do not know. Does Trump stand a better chance than Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush, etc, absolutely.
3
@RCS Sure, Trump is an operator, one with largely mediocre skills. He has enriched himself mostly by branding and selling his name- his record running big enterprises is pretty poor.
The board of directors of any Fortune 500 company would have fired him a long time ago.
11
The problem here is that Trump sees everything as a real estate transaction with either a “deal” or “no deal” as the only possible outcome. Nations don’t tend to like being regarded as transactions on a balance sheet hence the need for diplomacy, a concept totally foreign to Trump.
27
@D. Knight Agreed. I think the working model for Middle East peace is not Carter but the recent attempt to purchase Greenland.
5
The word 'diplomatic' and the name 'Trump' really should not be used in the same sentence.
7
This article completely misses the point. Trump doesn't care about any of these things. He doesn't care whether NK gets nukes, or whether there is a peace deal in Afghanistan. All he cares is that people say he's won.
There is no difference to Trump between NK really not having nukes, and him lying that "NK has no nukes" and having people believing him.
100
The Republicans have installed a president with no knowledge of history, no understanding of the issues he's supposed to be dealing with, and no underlying principles to guide him. What could go wrong?
51
"Trump Wants Big Diplomatic Wins. Here Are the Odds."
The odds are zero.
Or in more mathematical terms, "i".
"i" is the square root of negative one. It is known as the imaginary number. The odds of a diplomatic win for Trump are purely imaginary.
30
I think most world leaders now view Trump as a feckless blowhard whose "bark is worse than his bite". They're playing a long game, whether he wins or loses in 2020, Trump is merely a blip in time. Albeit an unstable, dangerous blip.
49
The word diplomacy and Trump should not be used in the same sentence. As we've all seen before,Trump's base-pandering, "scorched-earth" performances don't sit well with the rest of the world.
9
Or … he could leave them hanging in the air, claim we’re making progress
The Democrats will parrot all the way to 2020 that Trump did not handle these in 4 years, he will counter that we have meetings set for 2021, and they will be resolved early 2021 if he is president, or go under if Warren wins.
Thus putting Warren in the corner, making her say something dumb about how she would handle, and prove he is the only one who can deal with this.
I say Warren and she is sure to fall flat on her face when faced with reality.
He would not try to do this to Biden as he would be able to handle and thus Trump could not use this as a tool for reelection.
Or Sanders as the guy could not handle an ally, so much less NK, Iran or China, they would laugh at the mere sight of Sanders saying anything at all.
“Can produce results that have eluded Washington’s foreign policy establishment for more than ten years.”
Totally misleading. Obama and Europe brought Iran to heel and the TPP that Obama negotiated would have obviated the need for the present trade war with China. Those were significant achievements and both were destroyed by an ignorant reality tv personality with a serious personality disorder. Trump has made the world a far more dangerous place, with the prospect for “deals” resting on the performance of his malignant persona. Trump is no more a deal maker than his present wife is the holder of a degree in architecture.
196
@John David James
The TPP was on the ropes before Trump. Clinton and the other Dems ran against it.
1
Why would anyone deal with Trump now? He breaks every deal. Besides March 16th will be here soon. That’s “Merrick Garland Day”, after which no president can do anything substantial during an election year. So said Mitch.
43
At the present time, a “win” is anytime things don’t get worse.
5
Hard to conduct much meaningful diplomacy when your word is universally held to be completely worthless.
154
He wants TV moments. He wants "wins" even though there will be no substance to these "wins". His braying base is all he cares about. As they say, All Hat No Cattle.
16
Trump claims that his negotiation tactics have always worked for him. Sure, maybe for getting a landowner to sell so he can finish a golf course: threaten, flatter, then sue. Trumps's pathetic attempts at "Good cop, bad cop" are as sad as they are ineffective.
His assumption that he can succeed where others have failed--simply due to his bluster and "genius"--is as arrogant as a bank president with no training thinking he can suddenly conduct a symphony just by yelling at the musicians, or a successful surgeon thinking she can suddenly be a jet pilot.
But he's not doing real estate deals on the world stage, and he doesn't seem to realize that. His 73-year-old brain is stuck in a certain way of thinking, which is why we need younger leaders.
Here's the bottom line:
All of these leaders, whether North Korea, Iran, or Russia, know they simply have to run down the clock. They read our papers and watch our shows, and know that either the next president may be a democrat, or if the worst happens and trump is reelected, he will face a definite impeachment or hostile congress. The US in 2021 will, one way or another, not be politically the same as it is now.
9
@Scott Cole
What leads you to believe Mr. Trump was a successful real estate businessman? His own words?
10
@rational I don't see that he said any such thing--merely that diplomacy is not the same thing as a real estate "deal," which, as Scott pointed out, uses tactics like threats and lawsuits.
5
@Andrea and all, Let’s not throw all developers into the Trump cesspool. Over the past 35 years I have worked with many successful developers across the country who have embraced compromise and demonstrated fair negotiating skills rather than the Trumpian scorched earth approach. They did not file bankruptcy, and they paid their subs and honored their full obligations to their banks. These developers have often gone to great effort to consistently maintain strong banking and industry relationships through tough times, unlike Trump who has been a pariah and a joke for the past 30 years. I believe that most of my developer friends did not and will not vote for Trump, regardless of his self-interested developer friendly tax policies. It’s called integrity which is not one of Trump’s “all the best words.”
And oh, why hasn’t anyone asked Trump where the steel in his fancy towers came from....China? How would that play in NC and PA?
3
45 will never win the Noble.
3
@doodleboi
Hi doodleboi,
I think you meant the Nobel and I agree he won't win it.
He’s going to throw a Hail Mary in order to try for a yuuuge win. Heaven knows what it will be. Don’t be surprised if he stumbles into a war that he doesn’t want but won’t have the brains to stop. God help us all.
4
Here is what will happen: Trump, we know well by now, lives in his own head. TRULY in his own head, in the face of all contradictory evidence. So, once all those rational actors (can't believe I'm referring to Bolton as a rational actor) are removed, he is free to put forth any fictional outcome. Case in point: Kim Jong Un has stepped up significantly missile testing. Yet, Trump - and ONLY Trump - is unconcerned and prone to not even believing his own intelligence agencies on this. So he will proceed with promulgation of the fiction of peace on the Korean peninsula and a nuclear-free North Korea, even though Kim is more belligerent than ever.
5
Let’s clarify - Mr. Trump is not really looking for diplomatic wins, he is looking for photo ops.
44
Interesting how Pompeo thinks that Iran is solely responsible for trouble in the middle east. I would say that just about everyone there is responsible. If you took Iran out of the equation do you think that everything would be just swell there?
Outside of the "death to America" leadership, Iran has a well education population that has a positive impression of America and Americans. Long term I would trust them much more than the Saudis.
30
@Hugh G
And their history as the Persian Empire. I have met many Iranians who identify as being Persian
Educated and cultured people
11
@FerCry'nTears Good point, the Persian identity trumps any religious identity (sorry for the poor choice in a verb)
5
@FerCry'nTears
Several years ago, I believe around 1992 the slums in Tehran were being cleared and many buildings were being raised. I read an account where artists in Iran who were tipped off as to which buildings were to be destroyed. These artists would move in at night and paint the walls in these buildings even though they knew their art was to be destroyed. This story has always moved me and has always given me a greater respect for them the way that their human spirit could not be squashed in the face of great odds
In 1979 I lived in El Paso when the embassy was taken. Many of the Iranians in El Paso were getting death threats and were moved to Ft.Bliss for their safety. I always have belief that the Iranian people and their culture will rise again. You can't keep intelligence down forever
7
President Trump does not lead America’s foreign policy efforts, he controls them. He is singularly out of his depth here, but he is the boss. Even if you were to agree with his goals he is playing real estate mogul and our adversaries are playing politics. Give him a gold plated Monopoly set and send him home a “winner”.
5
I'm afraid that you got the goals wrong. In every case they are the same: 1) Photo-op, claim of unprecedented victory (credibility outside of base is unnecessary), massive PR election campaign; 2) claim to be a serious candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize (credibility, again, is optional); 3) establish connections for future real estate deals.
292
@syfredrick Nailed it.
25
@syfredrick
Donald Trump knows how to bark, fetch, roll -over and beg for the amusement and entertainment of Benjamin Netanyahu, Kim Jong Un. Mohammed bin Salman, Recep Erdogan, Rodrigo Duterte, Abdel el-Sisi and Xi Jinping.
Moscow Trump Tower? Pyongyang Trump Tower? Gaza Trump Resort and Golf Course? Tel Aviv Trump Tower?
5
@syfredrick
Other ex-presidents get taken seriously by the world and have "connections" because they are presumed to have gained insight into other world leaders. President Trump has gained no such insight. He will not have any influence on the next administration, whenever the next one takes over. I don't see why anyone other than entertainers (Fox news or others) would want to do him a favor once he gets out of office. There will be no reason for anyone in North Korea or China to placate him if he loses a year from November.
"The whole country, he notes, is a great property, with easy access to China, Russia, South Korea and Japan."
Yes, let's beat those missiles into timeshares.
177
@bijom I thought that was one area where Trump would succeed- basically bribe Kim with real estate deals and some nice condo developments scattered thorughout Asia. Corrupt politicians in capitalist or semi capitalist countries are much wealthier than corrupt one in communist countries
Either Trump didn't try that tactic or for some reason Mr. Kim isn't very smart.
2
@bijom And this is why N. Korea is the way it is. All of these countries, maybe Russia the least of them, has been using the Korean peninsujla as a way to invade one another. If I were N. Korea, I may well be as intransigent as Kim given the historical treatment, which never seems to be part of the discussion.
4
@bijom
". . .beat those missiles into timeshares."
Great line!!
10
What a joke. Up until now, Donald Trump has shown himself to be utterly incapable of any kind of diplomacy -- let alone make a deal.
He may see himself as "winning" the game, but in truth he will never get beyond playing solitaire.
135
@N. Smith
He cheats at solitaire, too.
1
@N. Smith
Love your "truthful" analogy of "playing solitaire". Excellent word choice!
The NYT has done a remarkably good job at this analysis of Trump's poor international policy. The main problem with making foreign policy a matter of "wins" is that there just aren't that many instances where a "win" can be secured. Kim, Xi, Iran are slippery fish.
57
The words “Trump” and “diplomacy” really do not go together.
182
@Boggle And "idiosyncratic" doesn't quite say it. Ignorant? Chaotic? Bungling? Ham-handed?
These are understatements also.
3
God help humanity.
98