The Republican Party Is Doomed

This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?

Comments: 115

  1. Mr. Greenberg made an excellent case for Democrats to not vote for Joe Biden.

  2. If the GOP is [already] doomed, the Democrats need do nothing. If the moment is [already] transformational, the Democrats need do nothing. Sorry, but I can't resist picking apart cheerleading.

  3. Do you know what hits the hardest, the most devastating, the deepest in our gut? It is the shame. It is the loss of our identity. It is the realization that we have given away our peace, our strength, our happiness to the crass pettiness of life in the gutter of selfishness. Where is our open-hearted love of people? What has happened to the power of liberty and equality? What have we done to our humanity? Can we survive our own downfall?

  4. As much as I despise Mr. Trump and the Republican agenda of tax relief for the wealthy and removal of fiscal & environmental safeguards, I do not see the Democratic Party as the standard bearers for progressive solutions. For 40 years Americans have been subjected to "Conservative" ideas and the Democrats meekly went along with it. The damage done by Gingrich, Norquist, Cheny Laffer, Falwell, Fox News et. al cannot be easily repaired since there is no clear contravening ideology to combat them. We have been beaten into believing that unions are evil, greed is good, government is the enemy, taxes are bad, welfare is nefarious and a litany of other "truths" expounded by the right. I fear we are doomed.

  5. Wishful thinking. Any attempt to rationally analyze the status of the Republican Party is doomed precisely because it has amassed a coterie of non-rational supporters who support it for ideological reasons - antiabortion, anti-women, anti-immigrant, anti-government, anti-taxers, anti-diversity and a host of additional antis.

  6. A wonderful column, and I agree wholeheartedly with its conclusion. That said, I'm well aware that the DNC and the central power structure of the Democratic Party aren't all that unhappy with the status quo and really don't want the Democratic Party to once again be the "party of the people" that it was in its Glory Days. I think they'd rather have four more years of Trump than four years of Sanders or Warren. That scares me.

  7. Gun violence is the number one issue for the Democrats now, whether they realize it or not, because irrational gun violence is the most immediate and tangible threat to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, to most Americans and their children. Tragically the Democratic candidates are not focusing on gun violence, which is the one single issue that unites most American voters. In my Congressional District, for America, polls indicate 85% see gun violence as issue #1. GOP registration in my District exceeds Democratic. Yet many Democrat candidates are campaigning on many other issues which are much more controversial among the general electorate. Go figure!!!

  8. Regardless of party, a president presents an image of the USA. the Obama familly presented a "good image" - handsome, young, charismatic and stable family values. The current POTUS totally lacks all of these qualities, which hopefully will contribute to his ouster via the ballot box in 2020. He is a buffon and a liar and does not command respect.

  9. Republican of Lincoln extinct. Monarchy of Donald and his descendants reigns. The Constitution is thrashed.

  10. Did you see the Trump rally in NC? I still cannot believe we have such people in this country.

  11. As long as the electoral college hangs around the barbarians will always be at the gates.

  12. As my Grandma Rose used to say, "From your mouth to God's ears."

  13. Both parties are broken. You can talk about the dysfunction in the GOP all you want, but you're whistling past the graveyard if you ignore the dysfunction of the Democrats. Congresswomen Cortez, Tlaib, Omar, Pressley, et all are driving the Democratic Party so far to the left, that moderates may once again face no good choice. For all Trump's bombast and ugliness, wages are finally rising and black unemployment is at its highest levels ever. As Tim Russert's dad, Big Russ used to say, "You've got to eat." Trump is the devil people know. And as long as jobs are coming back and wages are rising, I wouldn't bet against him.

  14. Do we? I dread to write this but as a Democrat I must. For me, Biden is our Trump. No, not the lowlife narcissist or the greedy capitalist but Biden is our party's concrete garden statue, a holy cow that no one can touch. Biden tells a huge lie and it blows over. Biden flubs a debate and it blows over. Biden is ahead of all the other candidates. Wow, that affirms my point. We have our very own Trump that defies the facts, doesn't have the original ideas we desperately need for 2020. If he runs and wins, I fear he will be governed by the people around him. Then we will have a paper president. A nice guy. Makes a bad joke pretty often but means no harm. What Trump has done is set the standard so low we are willing to push a guy who, though a good and loyal servant of the United States, is way too old to be president. Sherrod Brown, where are you? Do the Democrats know how to serve the Republican Party it's Coup de Gras? No, I don't think so.

  15. Dem candidates PLEASE hear this!!! This is what you need to stand behind! "More than three quarters... believe that sharper regulation of business is necessary to protect the public, that government benefits for the poor don’t go far enough, that racial discrimination still blocks black advancement and that stricter environment laws are worth the cost. Two-thirds believe that corporations make too much profit.... a very different America from the one Republicans have forged."

  16. What I expect from a Clintonite. Only talks about himself. First. Show the numbers on democrats as a percent of the voting population over time. Then show the approval rating of democrats as a party over time. Second. Government is not your toy to get what you want. Third. Every time by which I mean every time some democrat talks about being true to the cause they will not show the numbers on whether a majority favor whatever cause they tout. The true to the cause crowd does not have the numbers on most of their causes. And yet. Blah blah blah.

  17. And then there is the electoral college ....

  18. As a conservative (not a synonym for Republican), I left the Republican party more than a decade ago. Its support of the imperialistic, militaristic policies of the military-industrial-religious complex is what soured me on it. There is no way I could ever vote for a buffoon like Trump, no matter the policies he may support that I agree with. He is a despicable human being. How it is that the Evangelical Christian community (the majority of it) can support him is beyond me, but it shows its bankruptcy and that it has thoroughly disregarded the the teachings of Jesus Christ. If I had someone to vote for in this election, it would be the first Democrat I ever voted for for president and it would be Tulsi Gabbard. She's an honest broker.

  19. Republicans drool at the thought of being able to destroy social security and medicare, they are the party of the rich, the party of corporate greed. They have no interest or desire to help the real people of America, and until the average Republican voter realises that, they will continue to vote for the party that is actually against them. The Republican Party would have no chance of surviving without the electoral college, the majority of America knows how the republicans operate, and the majority of America is against their greed, dishonesty, and immoral policies.

  20. This editorial seems like a lot of wishful thinking..and useless statistics...-- Remember, the statistics said Hillary Clinton would win in 2016.. Wrong! ....--Also, Republicans currently hold the Presidency, the Senate, Supreme Court, and most of the Governorships... Is this what Mr. Greenberg means by the 'end of the Republican party'..? --It takes a whole lot more to 'transform a nation' then merely winning an election.. We saw that with all the Obama hype. It really starts with ourselves, and not waiting for some messiah to do it for us.. --Though, getting rid of Trump would be a big step in the right direction.. (But don't count your chickens yet..)

  21. Half of top US economists surveyed either agreed (46%) or strongly agreed (4%) that "low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year." http://igmchicago.org/surveys/low-skilled-immigrants

  22. "This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?" All they now how to do is play a winning hand to a loss.

  23. These are the same rehased stories from 2012 and 2016 - Dream on!

  24. "...a Republican Party determined to destroy government outside of defense..." I think a more accurate phrasing would be "The Republican Party is determined to destroy government...PERIOD." They want to destroy the very thing they are a part of, so that Big Business can run rampant over the country--destroying unions, destroying wages, destroying regulation and consumer protection, and making insane profits in the process. Meanwhile, the Republicans in government would do essentially...NOTHING. All while collecting a six-figure income at taxpayers' expense for doing little or no work. The Republican Party is no more than a lap-dog for modern-day robber barons who would raze this country to the ground in order to fatten their bank accounts. I am sick to death of Republicans who still say, "The business of this country IS business." The business of this country is the safety and welfare of 330 million Americans. And Republican voters entrusted the welfare of this country to an orange-faced clown (who has NO idea what he's doing) and Moscow Mitch (who is determined to hold this country hostage while passing tax cuts for the "businessmen" who own him body and soul). I intend to vote STRAIGHT Democrat in the 2020 election. I don't care if the Democrats nominate a popsicle stick in 2020. I'll vote for it. Trump voters rebelled against Obama in 2016. Now Democratic voters will rebel against Der Trumpenfuhrer. There's a hard rain a-comin', Republicans. Payback is a...

  25. Headlines like this are idiotic. Just fueling Democratic complacency. Last I checked, the Republicans controlled the Senate, and are skilled in the dark arts of gerrymandering and voter suppression, fueled by their potent potion of overt racism. Trump will win in 2020, the Party of Evil will continue to control the Senate, and I only hope the Dems can keep the House. And Mr. Greenberg can return to the woodwork and plan Hillary Clinton's 2024 campaign, since he did such a great job in 2016. Wish this were all not true, but I don't see much reason for hope.

  26. A CIA operative confirmed that Putin ordered 2016 election meddling. That is how we got Trump, the most undemocratic president ever. I hope our country can survive him. But I worry daily. Too many people believe his lies and blusters.We have to regain our democracy. At any cost.

  27. Bragging about how your opponent is doomed a year before kick-off never seems wise.

  28. "Source: Democracy Corps" LOL

  29. If politics were a football game, the Republicans currently lead the Democrats 55-3 late in the 3rd quarter. Pundits have been predicating the demise of the Republicans for years and as recently as 2016. To quote Divya, "fool me one shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me"

  30. From that title to God's ears.

  31. The sky is not falling! The sky is not falling! Yes, it is.

  32. You nailed... something. The Democratic Party may be in its last throes as a nationally followed organization. While most workers and most followers of the Judeo-Christian ethic have been secured to the GOP's crusade for black, Latino and female employment, the minority running the Dem party makes the most childishly irrational statements - and plans! - about how they will outlaw or end - most energy industries, most auto travel, all access to airplanes outside of government officials, the meat industry - for the kookiest rationale ever, the private ownership of rifles that actually created this country in the first place, and - need I go on? What will cost the Dems so many elections is that THEY cling to the very things they would deny regular Americans. THEY ae the ones with the gigantic carbon footprints, people like the Obamas are the ones craving pork ribs, the progressives' properties are the ones surrounded by high walls, and the Left is today's enemy of free speech.

  33. @L osservatore, of course, everything you impute to Dems is either misleading or entirely false, but you love DT, I get it. Yeah, the Dems are gonna take your guns, your pickups and your cheeseburgers....except, we will all have to give up our “way of life” as we know it if we want a livable planet. Where is the voice of reason and reality in the Republican Party that articulates that? Nowhere. Which is exactly where you are...even if it looks like Verona.

  34. As long as there is something to hate, there will be a Republican Party.

  35. As long as there is racism, there will be an Republican Party.

  36. A comment in another NYT article included a reminder that the Russians also hacked the RNC. nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/obama-russia-election-hack "They based that conclusion, in part, on another finding — which they say was also reached with high confidence — that the Russians hacked the Republican National Committee’s computer systems in addition to their attacks on Democratic organizations, but did not release whatever information they gleaned from the Republican networks." Why didn't the Russians publish what they found in the RNC hack? Does that give them leverage over the RNC/GOP as well as Trump? The RNC/GOP has been corrupt for quite some time. They, along with Russia, seem quite content to have Trump as their useful idiot. But I wonder if being "spared" by the hack gives any insight into the degree of complicity of the RNC with Trump?

  37. The Republican "Party" died years ago. It was replaced by the Republican Cult. It's adherents are impervious to reason and they aren't going anywhere.

  38. Mr.Greenburg has gone too far in his imagination and I wish that he is right. The Republican Party is morally bankrupt and ethically scores minus F. But they are racially energized and financially rich . They know crook business and they are corrupt. They are fake and fraud. But the Democrats are deeply divided and eating each other. The Courts are with the GOP. They are the best in rigging elections. The most important in our politics that most of us are politically naïve, ignorant , lazy and uninterested.

  39. Trump will be re-elected. Republicans will maintain their ill gotten hold on the white nationalist middle of the country. There is no rational thought left in America.

  40. Much depends on how many more people vote in 2020 who did not vote in 2016. Around 50 % of the people bother to vote in national elections. If the Republicans can get 10 % more of their supporters to turn out then the Blue Wave evaporates. Just because you are an immigrant does not mean you will vote Democratic and not every immigrant is in favor of more immigrants. Pamela Harris lost my vote by agreeing with the man who called Trump a "Retard", such a lack of sensitivity to the use of a disgusting phrase, one used against my brother who lacked oxygen during part of his birth, over and over again in school, shows a side of her that is elitist and ugly. Elections are strange affairs and who know what may happen and who will say the wrong thing at the wrong time. We were told that McGovern would sweep Nixon and his cronies out of office but then Eagleton was given 1,000% support by McGovern and then asked to step aside a few days later. I like Warren, I may vote for her.

  41. @John Brown Who is Pamela? I don't think she is running.

  42. The comments on here must be enough for Mr Greenberg to reflect, and think before he writes.

  43. 2020 is an historic opportunity to wipe Republistan off the face of the political map. For 39 years, the Grand Old Phonies have been leading the oligarchic charge over a Russian-Republican cliff of 'free-market' vulture capitalistic economic violence and record income/wealth inequality. They have gerrymandered, neo-Jim-Crowed, and court-rigged their way into corrupt power so the 0.1% could surf their way to a tax-evasion and slave-labor-wage Shangri La, capped off by the 2017 Trump-GOP 0.1% Welfare Queen Tax Act, the dismantling of Environmental Protection Agency, and the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act and blessing of GOP-gerrymandering. The Republican Party has shown America who they are: greedy oligarchs hostile to the common good, to the environment, democracy, to paying their fair shares, to infrastructure, to fiscal responsibility, to justice, to affordable healthcare and to the economic dignity of the American people....and will to condone the daily feeding of religion and white spite to the duped masses in order to keep an extra dollar in their pockets. The Republican Party has shown America who it is. It is an historically destructive and undemocratic force that requires a resounding and devastating defeat at the ballot box. Register. Help others to register. Donate. Vote. https://www.voterparticipation.org/support-our-work/donate-to-vpc/ D to go forward; R for reverse....over the cliff. November 3, 2020

  44. you forgot to mention that with rare exception the dems are all paid off as well.

  45. This pollster makes the same mistake the conservative columnists do, they think their opponents think like they do. They do not. Conservatives think very differently than progressives and progressives think very differently than conservatives.

  46. I voted for Reagan and the first Bush for President, but switched to democrat shortly after. I am a secular fiscal conservative who is socially progressive. There is no room for people like me in the republican party. The one positive thing I can say about Trump is he will get democrats out to vote, something no democrat could do.

  47. My dear mother-in-law is 95 years old and has voted a straight Republican ticket all her life. This year, she registered as a Democrat and says she'll never vote for a Republican again. Change may be slow, but it does happen.

  48. Political are opinions based on emotion, not reason!

  49. At least we have gotten past the pretense that Republicans are just a conservative political party. Republicans blatant corruption, misuse of government funds to enrich themselves, and desire to turn the US into a country under Putin’s control has been illuminating to say the least. There is not bottom for them, they have long ceased to be Americans. They may be able to decimate the US, that remains to be seen, but they will always be known as the fascists they are.

  50. I suspect the Third Way, DNC, and CAP have their fingers in their ears and are humming la-la-la so they don't have to admit they are wrong - again! A moderate candidate is a prescription for defeat. We absolutely cannot wait longer for the tide to finally, finally turn on the Republican war on government, which is really a war on us and on reason, fairness, truth and science. We will die an ugly death from climate disruption if we don't act NOW. Ask the corpses on the Bahamas what that was like. Bernie gets it. He gets it and he has the best climate action plan, the best educational plan, the best health care plan and the best organization to make it happen. Get your head out of the sand, moderates. We need real change and we need it yesterday.

  51. To paraphrase Lily Tomlin, no matter how cynical I get, it's impossible to keep up. I desperately want this article to be true, but there is an "all other things being equal" aspect to it that I can't quite buy into. They are not. To think that Russia and the Dirty Tricks Division of the Republican party are not sharpening their knives right now is just naive.

  52. The Reps will never die as long as the Dems keep coming up with bad ideas. The father of Meadow, one of the Parkland victims, has written a book on about the development of the shooter by the lax discipline in the schools. There will always be a revolt of some kind against the chaos created by bad unworkable ideas, even when they are defended and promoted by the media. The Reps, or some reincarnation of them, will always be there. We need something better than these two miserable parties.

  53. With the coronation of a carnival huckster as their standard-bearer, the Republican party forfeited any assumption that they should be taken seriously going forward. They relegated themselves to the metaphorical children's table. The adults will now debate serious, even existential, issues in the Democratic and Independent arenas. The Republicans will attend Trump rallies and avail themselves of other forms of delusional distraction. I pity these people. But, at the same time, the stark reality that each person wearing a red MAGA hat at the latest Trump rally has a vote equal to mine causes me to contemplate relocation to somewhere more conducive to base-level rationality.

  54. I'd love to believe that "The Republican Party is Doomed" - but this amazingly lightweight piece doesn't convince me. I was going to call it 'analysis' but I don't think it reaches that level. Moderate people are repulsed by vile stuff that Trump feeds to his base. Ok we know that. Does that mean Democrats will flip back Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and maybe Florida? If they don't, the Republican Party is far from doomed. But there's no electoral analysis here. Stanley Greenberg's optimism recalls his earlier vision of a Blue future driven by Hispanic voter demographic growth. He doesn't acknowledge or measure the process whereby some Democratic voters switch over as Reagan Democrats did, as Obama-Trump democrats did. This liberal to reactionary undertow current continues. Trump sees it and promotes it.

  55. if all the jack donkeys voting for an independent votes democrat, then we will have a new president in 2020. Hint: stop voting independent like it will mean a darn thing!!

  56. "The time for hesitation's through No time to wallow in the mire Try now, we can only lose And our love become a funeral pyre" Let's light a fire, Dems!!!

  57. I don't think so. Your country may be majority democrat but racism survives in its blood like the herpes virus. Surging again and again and again, with a robust malignancy. I think only multi generational change and environmental catastrophe will bring forth a boldly progressive US that can actually join the more forward social democracies of the west.

  58. Is there a Trump supporter anywhere who doesn't watch FOX news? These people believe anything they are told. My Aunt says its the only truthful news. She is a religious fanatic and a diehard racist, her husband grocery shops with a gun. A sad segment of our population is in love with a racist buffoon. They don't believe Trump declared bankruptcy 6 times.... My point is 35% of Americans are just like Trump. FOX has brainwashed them and they are lost in a cult of white supremacy. Vote like your life depends on it!

  59. @Susan C 35% is too low.

  60. God, I hope so. Please, please, please. Any big time, influential, rockstar-type god(dess) .... We need your intervention. In our Republic's name, we pray. Amen.

  61. Mr. Greenberg, there is only ONE democrat that mirrors FDR in the scale of policies to make our government for and by the people instead of for and by the plutocrats, her name is Elizabeth Warren! As with FDR, she will accomplish this because the GOP tore the economic fabric of this country from democratic capitalism into the plutocracy we have today. Just like FDR she wants to save capitalism from its excesses and make it more open an democratic. Only Sanders and Warren are articulating our problems and offering solutions, Sanders wants democratic socialism while Warren is proposing democratic capitalism. She says our system is rigged with uncontrollable money given to politicians while offering solutions with a legislative fix of uncontrolled dark money and bypassing the GOP supreme court. She says our markets are NOT free, because monopolies and oligopolies control their markets and the political process. Democratizing our economy means curtail the power of monopolies and their concubines the GOP.

  62. I would be more inclined to believe Mr. Greenberg if he provided evidence for any of these things: 1. A sharp decline in FOX news and other right-wing media viewership 2. A dramatic decline in the number of single issue anti-abortion and/or gun control voters 3. A wave of Trump supporters admitting they've been conned 4. Broad support for impeachment of Trump on corruption charges Barring any of this evidence, it's safe to say the GOP can double down on its "I'm with stupid" position, win the electoral college and the Senate, stock the courts with conservatives, and continue destroying the United States.

  63. “American voters will not disappoint us again.” I wish I shared your optimism...

  64. I very much hope your optimism is warranted Stanley. Thank you for your writing and research.

  65. Look at what got him elected: In the beginning NBC gave this malevolent worm a platform. Vote denial/ suppression/ gerrymandering. The millions who didn’t vote. The crackpot, ripoff, white evangelical church; gun worshippers; the “sovereign citizen” libertarians; white supremacists; ill educated/illiterate/ignorant whites, male and female; nativists one generation away from immigration; ‘conservatives’ who are radically destructive; ‘family values’ proponents whose politics are an expression of their cruelty, especially toward children. Add grift, sleaze, hypocrisy and corruption and you have the GOP, representing all that is weak and regressive about America, offering useful fools by the million to whom government is nothing more than reality TV hosted by a buffoon floundering from crisis to crisis, propelled by the vacuum of an empty mind, low rodent cunning and a foul mouth. He represents money without national affiliation or loyalty. The Russians found him offshore in their money laundry. This didn’t just happen; the GOP is a project but whose? For the answer, look at what they do: government as a funnel to channel America's wealth offshore. Putin meanwhile plays his hand with a laser focus on the GOP because its America’s weakness, the comic realization of McCarthy’s vision, a body infested with dupes and agents. Hello Manafort, Page, Nunes, and Conway. All of the above says it’s time to break the Republican Party with the weight of a crushing majority.

  66. Republicans who vote for Trump do not trust and do not participate in polls. Therefore, the entire premise of this article is flawed. I am a fairly conservative Republican, who finds Trump's behavior reprehensible. But, he is accomplishing a lot of things prior Republican presidents were unable to do. Am I going to argue with success, because I think Trump has no class? Nope, not on your life. The Democrats gave (and still give) Bill Clinton a pass on all of his terrible, misogynistic behavior, because they liked his policies. The really shouldn't be surprised now that the worm has turned. The press and many of the pundits on the left like to characterize Trump as a Nazi or a wannabe dictator in the mold of Mao, Stalin, and Hitler. All I can say is... I wish Mao, Stalin, and Hitler were more like Trump; 100 million people would still be alive today!

  67. Here's how you don't take advantage of it. Open borders, free illegal alien healthcare, Medicare forced on everybody.

  68. Desperate Measures... What a Desperado Individual1 is lying to his gullible crowd in North Carolina. Can we just add Desperado to 3D's. Considering that he also tries to bring Ukraine to help him in 2020 by befriending Mr. Zelensky, who is the President of Ukraine, so they can interfere with our election on his behalf. He's actually blackmailing Ukraine by withholding military support unless they go along with his conspiracy theory about Hunter Biden. Pit without any bottom in sight.  GOP as usually turns the blind eye. And the lunacy only intensifies, check this out... https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/08/us/politics/trump-family-dynasty.html?searchResultPosition=1"A Legend that Lasted a Lunch time" as smart person put it. Desperado-in Chief surrounded by his desperado gangs, lying on his behalf. The real tragedy is how many complicit people dwelling in this alternative universe.

  69. Indeed. The losses in 2010 and 2014 were rocket fueled by the handing over of the Treasury Department to Wall Street insiders who supplied the senior staff and leadership and formulated US economic policy under Obama. Not to mention a distinct failure to prosecute white collar criminals who literally stole billions. So people turned to Trump and got conned.

  70. The idea put forward by this article that republicans voted for Trump because they felt economically disenfranchised is a myth and has been repeatedly shown to be a myth. Republicans voted for Trump because he promised to be mean, vicious and cruel to the people they do not like. He has kept his promise and is joyfully abusing the defenseless and weak. His voters love it and will turn out for him in the same numbers. The only way he will lose the election is if the total vote turnout increases.

  71. "Mr. Obama’s election and re-election represented the triumph of an America that was ever more racially and culturally diverse, younger, more secular, more often unmarried, with fewer traditional families and male breadwinners, more immigrants and more concentrated in the growing metropolitan areas." This describes an America that will be getting poorer, as fewer married couples, the backbone of the middle class in the past, is replaced by single mom's, the uneducated immigrants, fragmented families, urban men with increasingly poor public educations. Truly a sad outlook for America and it's children going forward. :(

  72. Nothing about Putin"s lap dog or Kim's boyfriend?

  73. I'm not sure how any evangelical can support a man who pushes refugees out, locks kids up in cages, or has affairs with porn stars and then blackmails them to keep them quiet.

  74. @Mark Sounds like the evangelicals that I know.

  75. Make a habit of asking workers in stores you frequent about their health insurance. Many business owners (but not the blessed few who truly love their employees) have denied decent health care insurance to their employees to pad their profits . They sob and moan that they will go out of business or hire less staff if they have to give these American workers a fair shake and adequate insurance. So then we end up paying whether through medicaid or subsidized Obama care. This was the case with Walmart for years an still is for many businesses. This is also unfair competition to those good employers who offer good insurance.

  76. SMS, health care costs do force many business owners out of business, or to hire fewer people. A relative of mine lost his once thriving business for exactly that reason -- a big increase in health care costs when revenues were stagnant. He just couldn't find a way to keep the doors open and 30 people, including him, lost their livelihoods.

  77. The electors have already been bought and paid for. Party politics is just window dressing.

  78. This is one of the most incoherent Op-Eds I've ever read. Maybe with some heavy editing.

  79. Open borders, free health care for illegal aliens, green new deal. If you need binoculars to see the center, it might be you that has a problem with your party.

  80. Not if it dooms us first. And that is looking more and more likely by the day.

  81. I don't why the NYT would publish an article like this. Just for an example it gives a poll about immigrants. So what? The issue has always been about Illegal immigrants and how to stop that. The Republican will survive Trump, of course. This is just an an for the Democrats.

  82. In 2016, the public wanted an alternative to the neoliberalism that the elites of both parties represented. They got an alternative in Trump. They did not get one in Hilary. They took Trump. Even though they may have thought he was a gamble and a clown. If Dems fail to heed this observation, they will lose again. Go Warren!

  83. Interesting analysis, but highly fantastic. It also ignores the reality of the electoral map. The Dems need to pick up 38 electoral votes from the last presidential cycle. In 2016, vote totals were close enough to suggest a different 2020 result in only nine states-NV, CO, MN, NH, ME, PA, WI, MI and FL. Clinton won the first five, representing 33 electoral votes. The other four carry 75 electors. Flipping FL seems unlikely; the Dems lost two statewide elections there in 2018. So the Democratic nominee will have to hold all five swing states that went for HRC and flip WI, MI and PA. Highly unlikely. And the foregoing assumes the Democrats won’t choose someone who scares moderates and the GOP doesn’t continue or intensify its voter suppression tactics, either of which would make the odds of unseating Trump even longer. Anyone who harbors the notion that deep red states like AZ, IA, IN, OH, TX, NC or GA will go blue next year are dreaming.

  84. Your opening paragraph suggesting that the Democratic Party will be free of the polarization that will enable expanded use of government to solve problems is overly optimistic. As is the demise of the Republican Party. What Democrats need to ask is this: Why is nearly half the country is willing to vote for, or seriously consider voting for, a known miscreant in Trump? Dems have to really dig into this because a failure to begin addressing this issue will continue to put the country at risk of another miscreant getting elected. Dems Don’t have to capitulate on core values like diversity, real religious freedom, safety net spending and gender equity but they gotta start meaningful engagement with people to understand and eventually persuade the electorate. This is not going to be done in one cycle or done over social media. Don’t underestimate the resentment and disdain people have for the Democratic Party.

  85. The last presidential election the Democrats presented us (after much finagling) the ticket of Clinton/Kaine. Two essentially de facto Republicans. Just like in all the prior elections, only more so. The (de jure) Republicans will do just fine.

  86. Such astute analysis. Thank you, Mr Greenberg. Regarding who among the Democratic candidates for president ("...which leader best understands this tumultuous period. Which candidate has a theory of the case that pushes aside other interpretations and critiques?"), the answer to that question is Pete Buttigieg. Mayor Pete gets it. All of his speeches, addresses, town halls, policy plans, get to the heart of the approach Mr Greenberg urges here. He is our best hope to win the era.

  87. The GOP will be a strong, often dominant party for generations to come. There are tens of millions of mean-spirited people in this country who don't even know how to vote in their own self-interest. End of story.

  88. Deeply insightful--and encouraging, Mr. Greenberg. Thank you. I cannot but think; the policy of the GOP after their 2010 victory was unprecedented. To resolve to do NOTHING! Nothing at all! To sit on their hands. To frustrate--as Mr. McConnell put it--even legislation they AGREED with-- --out of a malignant desire to deny Mr. Obama a second term. The abominable CYNICISM of such a policy! It takes the breath away. And (in that connection) a quote comes to mind. Retailed by Mr. Theodore White (the "Making Of The President" series). Who recalled JFK (in the 1960 campaign) uttering the following: "The function of the U.S. President is to lay before the American people the great unfinished business of the nation." "Now who came up with that?" Mr. White mused. As he buttonholed this or that speechwriter-- --till JFK wrote him a peremptory note: "Tell Teddy White I came up with that line myself." The policy of the GOP in 2010 was the utter negation of JFK's wise words. The more so because--as the needs pile up--the challenges--the problems-- --not least our bizarre and incompetent Chief Executive-- --the GOP does nothing. Ex industria said the Romans. Deliberately. Oh Mr. Greenberg. This party is RIPE for extinction. And yes! Would to God the Dem's RISE to the challenge. Embrace the needs. Step up to the plate. Hit the ball out of the park. And the GOP? Let 'em die. Wither on the vine. They deserve it. Richly.

  89. .. Mr. Greenberg seems to be living (and writing) in a fantasy.. Republicans hold the majority of political power in this country.. Presidency, Supreme Court, Senate, Governorships... .... And the only reason Democrats won the House in 2018 was because of the success of centrist Democrats in upsetting Republicans.. .... Yes..centrist Democrats saved the day... ....--- Mr. Greenberg's fantasy about an era of 'bold, progressive transformation..'. is really just wishful thinking...

  90. I fail to see why anybody other than racists would vote for Trump. Also, I fail to see why anybody other than rich people would vote for the Republicans. The Democrats passed the valuable social programs like Social Security and Medicare that are of great value to average Americans. The Republicans passed big tax cuts for the rich folks. It's not really all that complicated.

  91. Clark Landrum, I'm not a racist and I will vote for Donald Trump because I like the way he gets things done. And I like the way he tries to build the wealth of the country as a whole rather than just take from the rich to give to the poor. Countries that focus on the former while those that focus on the latter fail.

  92. This kind of prognosticating makes the complex seem simple. But it's not simple. The American people are not a group that can be analyzed in this way. No one can accurately predict what is going to happen in the election more than a year away. As has been noted many times, we learn from history that we don't learn from history. We can't.

  93. Dream on, Democratic mouthpiece. If you hated he 2016 election, you're gonna be even more excited by 2020. Do you have guts enough to move to Canada?

  94. Here we go again with the political crystal ball. Want my prediction about what's really doomed? Punditry.

  95. I am an outsider looking in. I suspect that which ever way you choose to slice the electoral pie a majority of white US citizens do not disagree with Donald Trump from a moral perspective. The most convincing evidence if this being that US citizens continue to butcher school children, almost on a monthly basis.and nobody cares enough to do anything about it. As long as white America continues to act as if Trump is a "good person" nothing is going to change in the USA. Krugman's opinion on the decay of US democracy (today's NYT) describes the symptoms and consequences of this process of individual ethical decay accurately and succinctly. The test will be in 2020 when the world will see if the US is prepared to do the right thing and act to correct the disastrous mistake that was made in 2016

  96. This one sided partisan analysis is nonsense. If the Republican party is doomed then the Democratic party and the entire confrontational two party system is also doomed. The Trump Republican party is an equal and opposite reaction to the Democrats. Neither position is tenable in even the short term. Whoever wins in 2020 will be faced with fierce, even violent, opposition and, potential chaos (think of the reaction if Trump wins; it will be worse if Democrats win). The country is ungovernable by anyone but a centrist compromise candidate committed to making basic government work without fulfilling

  97. Hopefully, the Republican party is doomed. If not, under Trump, America is doomed.

  98. Excellent analysis by one of our best pollsters. As someone who has talked to many voters while canvassing and phonebanking in 2016 and 2018, I firmly believe he is right. However, here is the problem—the one candidate who will really bring about the transformative change Greenberg discusses is Bernie Sanders. The corporate interests, mainstream media and the establishment of the Democratic Party know that he will actually challenge the status quo in the way that no one else will, including Elizabeth Warren. And so they are working overtime to stop him, an effort particularly effective when waged by mainstream media, from which most people get their news. I fear they will succeed in stopping him from getting the nomination and the Democratic Party will nominate Warren, who is much less likely to appeal to the broad range of voters Sanders does. But even if she wins, all signs point to her pursuing only safe reforms that won’t fundamentally upset the fossil fuel companies, private insurance industry, and their ilk. The subsequent lack of transformative change will only lead to another harsh reaction from the voters and the rise of yet another right wing demagogue. I would urge the monied interests to wake up, but I fear holding onto power and short term gain has become more important than anything else.

  99. Amazing how these big time Dem pollsters always believe eternal progressivism is just around the corner, where every American will just sit back and see their nesteggs raided for the common good and be happy about it, too. Keep going, nominate Bernie or Liz and we'll see how that works out in Nov 2020.

  100. too many poorer, poorly educated and older Americans look at democrats and respond, I would rather vote republican no matter a nut is heading it. ultimately I believe emotion plays much more into voting, than when it comes to answering questions on opinion polls from pollsters. Republican wins in most of the south and states like Utah, Wyoming, Montana tell me that all the Trumpian insanity may not be enough to dislodge the entrenched mindset.

  101. When the Blue Wave knocks out Trump and the Dems take control of the Senate on Nov 3rd 2020... Trump will: 1. Claim that the elections were rigged 2. That he and he alone has proof that he actually won and the Dems did not take control of the Senate 3. That this is another national emergency 4. He is considering options but will "listen to his own advice" 5. Declare Martial Law before Jan 20th 2021... 6. State that HE is the one who has to take drastic action to defeat enemies from within and in particular the Dems and the MSM

  102. Just another pipe dream by a Democratic activist- the pipe dream that the U.S is a progressive nation. The U.S (and we Canadians love you guys, you've got a lot of good points) have always been the least progressive democracy on the planet. I mean, you had to fight a civil war to get rid of slavery, for Gods sake.

  103. Why not share surveys on how voters feel about illegal immigration, and about decriminalizing illegal immigration and free healthcare for all immigrants, legal or illegal? Those are the positions staked out by our likely nominees. It seems the article can't bring itself to use the term 'illegal immigration' because those very words are anathema. They won't be to Trump.

  104. Irresponsible title. Irresponsible prediction.

  105. I don't think so. I thought Hillary would beat Trump, but with hindsight I realize now that when Hillary brought up the topic of a former Miss Universe during the debate, it was an act of desperation. She knew she was losing and so she threw a cheap shot at Trump. I have this feeling that the Democratic candidates are similarly desperate because all they have left are charges of racism to throw at Trump.

  106. The glamour shows which were referred to as the Democratic presidential contender “debates” were nothing of the sort. We learned little about each candidate because of time constraints and meddling by moderators (particularly these from CNN and Chuck Todd).

  107. Reads like hope More than reality. If the Democrats run Elizabeth Warren, Trump May win the popular vote. That would be the end of the Democrats.

  108. There's a discernable trend in the Republican Party: Reagan > Bush > Trump > Putin. All of the above are more acceptable to Republicans than Barack Obama or HillaryvClinton.

  109. Oh, please...

  110. How I pray that you are right.

  111. If the GOP is doomed, then America is doomed. America needs both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party to move forward. If you can imagine America being a sailboat with the Democratic Party being the sail, then the GOP is like the keel. The keel counteracts the force of the sail to generate lift. A sailboat without a keel can’t sail into the wind.

  112. Yeah, maybe. If the Democrats win, the Republican Party May indeed be doomed. If Trump wins, we are all doomed. His voters are going to sink with the ship too. Organize, donate, volunteer, vote.