The Republican Party Is Doomed

This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?

Comments: 151

  1. Of the six people I know who voted for Trump in 2016, two decided they had made a mistake by summer 2017, two more joined them before 2018 ended, and a fifth just told me a few weeks ago that he'll vote for anyone but Trump or Bernie. This is all anecdotal. My circle of conservative friends may not be at all typical. But it does give me hope that people can change their minds as long as they haven't locked the door against new ideas and thrown away the key. For that reason alone I am continuing my political activism, even in the face of current Trump idiocies. Hope is not enough. Real change requires real action. Vote.

  2. This is not chiefly about how activist or big the government should be. Trump won because he explicitly *didn't* go on and on about small government and deficits and such like a typical conservative. Pretty much nobody wants Koch Brothers type government anymore. However, that in no way means that people want an empowered government to shoehorn in pet progressive projects. As one example, I want a much bigger government in the form of hiring way, way, way more immigration judges and court officials. But I want them so they can slog through the gigantic backlog of spurious asylum claims that have been piling up for the past five years so that the people making them can finally be deported and we don't have to house them, hold them, or otherwise keep them here for years while they wait.

  3. @Lesley Ragsdale Clinton won the people's vote. Trump won the Electoral College. The Democrats have good ideas to go forward. The Republicans want to go in reverse, less rights for women, gay, handicapped. I want to progress, not regress.

  4. Human knowledge is cumulative, not progressive. It's a historical and logical fallacy to conflate those things.

  5. I agree with this article and THANK YOU Stanley B. Greenberg. The Green New Deal is good for business because of all the work that is needed to accomplish it along with Infra Structure spending. Spending produces taxes and spurns more NEW business. Those who are invested in the old will not stand to gain and that is what I think Maryland talked about 56 minutes ago.

  6. I wish I could share the author's optimism. Schattschneider is an interesting name-drop, but what group is more mobilized to further its own interests, with less transparency, than business and industry? We have reached a point late in the development of corporate capitalism where government has mostly been captured. As have the two major parties. One reason Trump is so popular among his base is because he's letting the evangelicals have whatever they want. Usually the GOP pays lip service and ignores the culture issue constituents. As for the democrats, their inability to project a coherent party message isn't all bad--marketplace of ideas n'all. But the DNC is a cabal of politically-connected elites. Perhaps another author to consider would be Steven Lukes ('Power: A Radical View"), who explains how power has multiple dimensions, the most insidious being structural and appearing as simply the natural order of things. And the trend to support Lukes' 'third face' view? Trump's election and continued popularity, despite the fact he is consigning his own base to second-class citizenry with a few perks (rallies, merchandise, the comfort of confirmation bias). If the lessons of Trump's 'success' are those that democratic leadership takes to heart and seeks to put into practice, we'll just keep drifting toward a waterfall of undetermined height.

  7. Mr. Greenberg states that: “…leaving it [Republican Party] dominated by evangelicals, the Tea Party and observant Catholics.” Currently, six of the nine members of SCOTUS identify as Catholic. The Catholic Church has well known positions on the theological and moral acceptability of several current legal rights in the US. Additionally, Thomas Piketty has delineated the role of the inter-generational transfer of wealth for the 1% and for the 0.1% in maintaining wealth and income inequality. Importantly the 2017 "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" enhanced the position of the 1% in this regard; but is vulnerable to future changes. POTUS has repeatedly indicated that an election loss will be challenged and additionally that a term longer than 8 years is a desirable goal for his presidency. The critical importance of a continuing Trump presidency to the evangelicals, the Tea Party and the Catholic Church and its theology as well as to the 1 % and its inter-generational transfer of wealth, suggests that the most plausible outcome of the 2020 election is a second term for Trump.

  8. Setting aside Betteridge's law of headlines (the adage that any headline asking a question can be answered with "no"), I unfortunately still think Democrats have no idea how to take advantage of this situation. All of the points made here are great and encouraging, but they still fail to account for the willingness of the GOP to lie and obfuscate, the unwillingness of Democrats generally to come together on key issues, the anti-factual secular religion of Trumpism, and the ease with which people on the fence can be manipulated via social media and elsewhere. The Democrats face a lot of headwinds in 2020, and I genuinely hope they can find a winning strategy, but it's not enough to be "on the right side of history."

  9. I'm hopeful this next election will be transformative. The Republican Party does not represent working or middle class interests. They are increasingly the Party of WEDGE issues that fewer Americans care about over bread and butter issues like access to healt care, housing, and education. The Republican Party of today cannot even grasp the mantel of fiscally conservative since the current Administration has managed to borrow over $4T in just 2.5 years. Americans are tired of wage and social inequality and growing weary of headlines indicating that billionaires are paying little to no taxes at all on their massive income while most working class people are paying more under the so-called tax cut. Enough is enough. If people vote their own self-interest in the next election, Republicans are in for an astonishing defeat.

  10. I am skeptical of anything that comes from looking through a lens of any ideology from political "science" (which is not in any sense a science unless one includes astrology as a science) that like any ideological blinder distorts reality. Of course, the Republican Party has looked through an array of ideological lenses for a few decades now and though Trump has replaced some of those lenses with his own hallucinogenic filters, I am not convinced that enough Americans are unaligned with those distortions to allow his defeat. It is in part irrational fear prompted by racism that prompts Trump's voters and though Greenberg's reading of the polls is the basis of his prediction, I see much of the reading as biased by his own ideological political "science" viewpoint. I see his bias as a rose-colored view of the citizens of the United States. To a person with reason, Trump's behavior and the failures of his policies which have been pushed through by the Republican Party he now controls would rule out his re-election by a nation of reasonable citizens. But a reasonable person viewing the citizens of the US would also realize that they are not in any sense reasonable. There is, for the most part, a complete void of reason among them. In part this is due to the various societies being engulfed in a morass of pop culture, a people without any sort of reason-based education (most of them cannot even read with comprehension). All they know is pop culture.

  11. Seems premature. Surely the Democrats will still need to demonstrate clearly that they’re doing their job as the center left party, which includes looking out for working people without regard to race or gender.

  12. The Democratic Party is a gaggle of geese, and the pronouns to use are not "it" and "its," but "they" and "theirs." And that's going to be the most distressing thing of this election: THEY won't get THEIR act together well enough to adopt and commit to a unified message. Their problem has been well-documented by many observers, but by none so well as Mark Lilla of Columbia in his little essay, "The Once and Future Liberal." All progressives, and particularly those with any involvement in strategizing for this election, should be familiar with it. Only by coaxing the geese into some kind of order will the party be able to hasten the "doom" of the comparatively unified and focused Republican Party, as Mr. Greenberg hopefully suggests.

  13. All of this will be moot if the Democrats do not take control of the Senate in 2020.

  14. @MRod Parts of this column are very inaccurate. Americans are not more favorable to illegal immigration and immigrants. That's the word you left out: illegal. Voters are against any legislation that would increase the flow of illegal immigration. The right word to use is illegal simply because they're illegally in the US. The left wants to stop others from using the term illegal immigrant, often invoking the idea that no human being is illegal, but that's nonsense. The term is accurate. It's not a semantic discussion. I think, when the left hears illegal, they say let's change the word & we'll be done with it. Is there something about illegal immigrant per se that is so dehumanizing that it can't be used in polite discourse for people who are trying to have an honest conversation & aren't trying to spin it? We need to speak clearly so we define what's at stake. Undocumented seems to imply that some people forgot to fill out the correct paperwork when crossing the border. That's not what happened. They entered the US knowing they were breaking the law. They're here in the U.S illegally. That's why it's an issue. Can the left admit that a large number of illegal immigrants in the US, gives rise to economic competition that harms job prospects for voters who live here? This plays perfectly into the FOX News narrative that Democrats are offering illegals free healthcare, welfare, drivers licenses, in-state-tuition, & sanctuary. Guess what they're right. This is a terrible idea.

  15. @Bill Brown Liberals don't want an honest discussion about illegal immigration, hence their allergy to the adjective "illegal" and their disgraceful insistence on the euphemism "undocumented." We have about 12 million illegal immigrants in the country, and over 100,000 such individuals have come across the border *each month* so far this year. Progressives are unwilling to admit that the endless inpouring of desperate, unskilled, often illiterate workers into the US makes any progressive goal they can imagine - to rebuild unions, rebuild good blue collar wages, provide "free" college, get a $15 an hour minimum wage, provide comprehensive medical care, make housing affordable, even maintain functioning public schools and municipal services - is undermined by their numbers. Progressives like President Obama, Paul Krugman, Cesar Chavez, Bernie Sanders, Barbara Jordan and others used to be able to admit that we can't have both an endless supply of unskilled labor AND these things. Now we can't, because of "white supremacy" and Donald Trump.

  16. @MRod Democratic control of the House and Presidency in 2021 means the GOP is Blocked; just like they have blocked us. Dems passed 285 bills so far; Grim Reaper blocked almost all of them. Republicans are in deep; deep; deep trouble. America is tired of Big Business making tons of money; NRA allowing us to be Murdered; and Trump/Republicans painting brown people/immigrants as criminals.

  17. Dear Dr. Greenberg, you say that the GOP are doomed. Are you saying that the Democrats will retake the Senate in 2020? Because otherwise the word "doomed" is meaningless. Doomed parties do not keep control of the Senate.

  18. Steve Bullock, Democrat, Governor or Montana is the man for this time. He's not from the east coast and he can talk and reason impartially. He's a Democrat, reelected by Republicans and Democrats in Montana. He sees money as a corrupting agent in politics and isn't afraid to say so. For the Republicans, "It's never not about the Money", they have lost any idea of what's morally/ethically good and what's morally/ethically bad. Republicans' talk is cheap and it's costing us our country.

  19. Trump will win in 2020 because Kris Kobach's Interstate Crosscheck will see to it that millions of legally registered voters will be purged from the voter rolls by election day, as they were in 2016. That's how Trump took power, and that's how he'll stay in power, because nothing has been done to stop it. Everything else is noise.

  20. The article begins: "The 2020 election will be transformative like few in our history. It will end with the death of the Republican Party..., leaving the survivors to begin the struggle to renew the party.... It will liberate the Democratic Party from the country’s suffocating polarization...." At best, this is wishful thinking. At worst, it's just plain fantasy and indicates that the author is either blind to reality or willfully denying it. According to the pundits in the press, every election is going to be "transformative." They never are, not should they be. Obama wasn't a transformative president. Reagan, by any real measure of impact here at home, was not a transformative president. Even including Lincoln and FDR, the entire concept of transformative presidents is a topic for debate. Every four years, we hear of the impending death of one of the two major parties. Whichever loses the last election has its death knell sounded, then whichever is the party in power is said to be on the verge of expulsion and perpetual irrelevance. These things never happen. Whichever party wins, things will not change. Congress is intransigent. Obama spent his first two years with a Democratic congress. What changed? Not gun laws. Not abortion laws. Not immigration law. Nothing except the introduction of a bad heath care program proposed by the Heritage Foundation. In short, nothing is going to change, at least not very much. And, that's exactly how our system is supposed to work.

  21. With regards to the issue of immigration discussed in this article, the descriptive word omitted is 'illegal'. Many Trump supporters are legal green card holders or naturalized citizens who deeply resent that they have waited their turns, often for years, while illegal entrants get ahead of the line. This is a deeply unethical policy pushed by Democrats who even want to extend them financial benefits, while our own legal immigrants still struggle to pay off medical, educational, and vocational loans.

  22. @subway rider - Let's have some data on what undocumented immigrants give to this country. Find the link here contributions-of-new-americans/ New York - "If all unauthorized immigrants were removed from New York in 2008, the state would lose $28.7 billion in economic activity, $12.7 billion in gross state product, and approximately 137,013 jobs, even accounting for adequate market adjustment time, according to a report by the Perryman Group." New Jersey - "If all unauthorized immigrants were removed from New Jersey, the state would lose $24.2 billion in economic activity, $10.7 billion in gross state product, and approximately 103, 898 jobs, even accounting for adequate market adjustment time, according to a report by the Perryman Group." Pennsylvania - "If all unauthorized immigrants were removed from Pennsylvania, the state would lose $5.3 billion in economic activity, $2.3 billion in gross state product, and approximately 27, 718 jobs, even accounting for adequate market adjustment time, according to a report by the Perryman Group." The report provides similar information for every state in the union.  I am sick and tired of reading descriptions of undocumented immigrants as drains on our economies and society. They provide huge cultural and economic benefits that need to be better understood in order to bring our immigration debate into a saner realm.

  23. What should be more explicitly expressed is that presidents can put 1000% tariffs in place and still manufacturing jobs are never, ever coming back to this country. Those jobs will be soon be filled by robots. So then what? Corporations paying their fair share of taxes and our government investing that money in infrastructure and education is what. No one working three minimum wage jobs to pay their bills is going to tell you the economy is good. And they're right. They have no chance to get ahead! But good paying infrastructure jobs might just fill the gap until the next generations have the education necessary to move us out of manufacturing and into the future.

  24. While the demographic and issue-related data Mr. Greenberg relies on might be accurate, Republicans could very well continue to win elections based on changes to voter eligibility, registration, and election administration that will continue to further entrench a flailing minority. Voter ID laws and other disenfranchisement schemes have abounded in the lead up to, and since, the 2018 midterms. Remember the Georgia governor's race? What about the Florida State Legislature's response to the ballot measure restoring voting rights to ex-felons? The Florida Legislature passed a law making voting almost unconscionably risky for ex-felons, who are subject to criminal penalties if they register to vote, even under the mistaken impression that they have paid their court fines and fees. This functionally nullifies voting restoration to 1.5 million people in Florida. This is all without even mentioning gerrymandering. So, while I fervently hope Mr. Greenberg is correct, I can't help but take a more cynical view in light of the way political power is wielded against non-Republican US citizens.

  25. The Democrats need to get into TACTICAL ploys if they want to get seats and win. NZ political system is different to NZ but the National Party used to drop off candidates standing for an electorate so votes wouldn't get halved between two candidates thus putting in the party candidate that would get the most votes and put out the candidate whose party wouldn't vote to pass legislation with your political party. It requires strength of character to bowl out of electioneering so the political party with similar policies as yours can get elected. There seems to be too many Democrats standing in Texas, compared to Republicans, and that's because they don't want their votes divided up and they loose the electorate. Trump seems to be focusing on his voters, only and stuff the rest of the country. Democrats need to be tacticians like Trump is. The Democrats seem to be all over the place and need to show up the errors in Trumps comments so people get 'facts' and not 'tweets'. Pull out stats or show up what the stats are leaving out.

  26. @CK Ooops! Should read NZ political system is different to USA

  27. Deja Vu - Seems to me the same smug attitude predicted the death of the republican party in 2016. How did that work out?

  28. Great piece! I have an idea. Why don’t you put out a pull out section in the Sunday Times entitled “ Europe vs USA, what they have that we don’t”. List the amount of money (taxes) each country pays and the benefits citizens receive. Put it all in black and white. Dispel the myth once and for all that Europe pays higher taxes than Americans. My theory is simple: if Americans ever really knew and understand just how poor their quality of life is compared to other industrialized countries, they would actually vote. We pay for everything in this country and get bombs in return. Last I heard, you can’t put bombs on the dinner plate. Do the pullout and educate Americans as to the truth. We pay the most and get very little in return compared to Europe. Sometimes the truth just hurts.

  29. What Mr. Greenberg describes looks more like just another partisan boom-and-bust cycle than the beginning of a stable electoral majority for the future. It sounds suspiciously like a rehash of the now discredited myth of the "Emerging Democratic Majority." The fat-cat funded tea party revolt took less than 6 months to crystallize after Obama's inaugural. One of the Koch's is dead, but there's always the other, and plenty of people still take Ayn Rand's idiocy seriously. No sooner will Biden or Warren get elected than Mr. Greenberg's polls will start heading in the opposite direction with a burst of corporate propaganda. I regret not supporting HRC in 2008. Unlike Obama, she would never have wasted her time believing the Reps could be her friends - which is also Biden's delusion. Warren knows better and I don't see her rolling over and whining about how mean they are.

  30. We are drowning in government debt. FDR/LBJ socialism has created a permanent underclass, especially in the African American community. So, your answer Is more intrusive, sclerotic federal bureaucracy? The death of the Republican Party would be the death of America as we know it.

  31. @Art Hudson Corporate Welfare debt that's been steadily climbing up and up since 2008. Corporate Welfare and bailing out big business - now that is communism and socialism. Someone needs to analyse government debt and why Trump gave tax cuts to the top 1% when the public debt is so high - a tax cut for the richest is socialism.

  32. @Art Hudson - Let's look a some history on the debt. After WWI, we had 10 years of balanced budgets. Here are the debt figures: 07/01/1920 $25,952,456,406.16 06/30/1930 $16,185,309,831.43 In 1929, the debt was only 16% of GDP AND THEN WHAT HAPPENED !? BTW History shows us that every time we embraced austerity and paid the debt down 10% or more, we got a depression and every depression followed a period of surpluses. After WWII we had even more debt as a percent of GDP, but we had mostly deficits for 27 years, Here are the debt figures: 06/28/1946 $269,422,099,173.26 06/30/1973 $458,141,605,312.09 As you can see, the debt almost doubled, but we got the interstate highway system, Medicare. a median real household income that was 74% larger, and we even fought a couple of wars. 1946 - Public debt 109%, Gross debt 121% What about today? Public debt about 77%, Gross debt about 101% (Much lower than in 1946) It way past time that folks like Art understand that the finances of a country that can create as much money as it needs out of thin air are NOTHING like your personal finances (unless you have a printing press in your basement).

  33. Without social security and Medicare I would be dead. And so would most senior citizens.

  34. I'd love to believe Mr. Greenberg's poll data! But since he is not a non-partisan pollster, I wonder if we can.

  35. One factor that's mentioned only in passing in this article, but that we shouldn't forget, is Republican weakness on gun safety. I'll always remember the sign I saw a young woman holding during last year's post-Parkland March for Our Lives demonstration in DC. It read: "An Entire Generation Is About to Reject the Republican Party."

  36. Of course every moderate I know, every independent I know and every Democrat I know will vote straight Democratic ticket in 2020! Even my Republican friends are quick to reassure others that they did NOT vote for Trump in the last election! Perhaps some of them are lying, but if you're too ashamed to admit you voted for him BEFORE we got wind of what he is really like, well then, imagine voting for him now. The reality is everyone I talk to has already decided on this ticket for 2020: ANYONE but Trump. More moderate Republicans (and there appear to be only a few left) are not going to run against Trump because they know the party is tethered to the anchor of Trump's sinking ship. The "base" they keep pandering to is only about 20-25% of this country, at best, many of them old, and many can be swayed by foundering economics--(like Wisconsin dairy farmers who are declaring bankruptcy like never before thanks, in part, to Trump's tariffs and trade wars). Young people can't stand him; women can't stand him, the educated despise him, Blacks know he is a blatant racist who views all minorities as criminals, anyone who is or has an immigrant in their family hates him too, and so do environmentalists and most American Jews and anyone who is LGBTQ. Please tell me who is left? His "base" of old, white, rural or uneducated people? Really? Anyone who lived among society in the last few years must realize how that is, at best, a rapidly shrinking populace. We just need to vote.

  37. I hope you're right, but this country is far from democratic. It's a republic with states' rights that supersede voter's rights. The US Senate is not representative with 67% of the people in the 16 most populated states getting the same 32 senators as only 6% of the people in the least populated states. This is tyranny of a minority, an unrepresentative Senate and taxation without fair representation. Since the unitary President picks SCOTUS justices that are either confirmed or not by the unrepresentative Senate, five/sixths of our alleged government for the people is autocratic, really plutocratic since the super-rich pull the strings. I'll get lots of push back that the House is the house of the people. That's nice except for the partisan gerrymandering and voter suppression. But, it doesn't make up for the rest of this autocratic government. Democrats have to win by large margins to ensure a win in any state or in a federal election. And, due to this unfair representation, the unfair Electoral College is gamed by overemphasis on a few states in the election of a president. I really hope I'm wrong. Trump could loose the "popular" vote by more than 2.85 million and still game the Electoral College. And, what exactly will happen if this occurs again? What will happen if he looses by 4 or 5 million votes and squeaks through in this unfair, antiquated Electoral College? I don't know, but it scares the crap out of me.

  38. More sunshine and lollipops (or rainbows and unicorns). It all works as stated if we ignore: 1. The Electoral College 2. Russian interference. 3. Voter suppression. 4. Hackable voting machines and computer systems. 5. Corrupt election officials. 6. Corrupt administration officials. 7. Right-wing stacked courts. 8. Hundreds of millions of dollars from the Koch family, Sheldon Adelson and other billionaires protecting their fortunes and power. 9. And on, and on, and on... Sad how progressives scream about how damaging all of these things are, only to leave them out entirely when projecting Trump's demise. So, do these things impact presidential elections, or are they just things to bitch about (aka "fake news")?

  39. @gleapman Probably because you have bought in lots of new immigrants from corrupt nations that are high up on the world corruption index. These people get jobs in government position and lower your nations status as not being corrupt.

  40. @CK Funny. Clearly the Trump administration and all those Republican governors and secretaries of state have hired primarily immigrants (especially new ones) to fill key roles, especially those that handle elections. Trump is all about rewarding new immigrants. (Maybe you are Louis CK.) We were in your town two years ago. Our sense from speaking with the locals is that New Zealanders are well-versed on US politics. But, of course, ever country has clueless people.

  41. @gleapman I suppose I should apologise for being born! lol! The 'qualifying words are,' ..from corrupt nations that are high up on the world corruption index'. We've had a number of court cases where the media has exposed new immigrants bribing ministers by giving donations to their election campaigns - one had to resign because of it. The media keep an eye of corruption and bribery in government, by having access to the , The Official Information Act. NZ was also the top least corrupt nation, on the less corrupt nation index but I think we've slipped a point or we might have climbed back to top spot after investigations into bribery of politicians by new immigrants from corrupt nations.

  42. Analyses that only examine aggregate national data cannot predict elections. Because of the Electoral College, it is necessary to query voter preferences state-by-state, with a focus on the swing states. Looking separately at groups by race, class, ethnicity and gender, while a step toward a more complete analysis, does not account for regional variance within these groups. The suburban women of Scarsdale cannot be assumed equivalent to their counterparts in Birmingham. Unfortunately, this article, like the national polls that missed the 2016 Democratic defeat, provides no state-level breakdowns.

  43. As a pollster, Greenberg has a lot of statistics to prove his argument. Unfortunately voters can and will say one thing and do another. It would be same thesis if I were to say, based on my view of the upcoming election through the eyes of the NYT, that the GOP will be smothered in 2020.

  44. Sadly, the Republican Party is far from doomed, and Trump could easily be reelected. I appreciate the data provided and the graphs, but I remember seeing similar data prior to GWBush being reelected in 2004. And, remember all the polls that said Hillary was sure to win? That said, I think Mr. Greenberg is onto something when he says the key to winning against Republicans is to correctly identify exactly what fight is being fought. Hopefully, a Democratic challenger will emerge (Not Biden or Bernie), who can convincingly make that case

  45. To the extent the party is Pelosi, who is out of step with much of the party, her answer to the transformational moment will be to continue her supine fear of Trump's power.

  46. Yes well, haven't we heard his before. As long as democratic pollsters and pundits don't distinguish between legal and documented immigrants (everybody loves them) and illegal and undocumented (70% of voters are against), they will never understand the mentality of (especially) lower income voters whose jobs and wages are threatened by such undocumented persons (we should not refer to them as immigrants).

  47. I working on Barack Obama's campaign in 2008 and 2012. I was particularly impressed with OFA - Obama for America. This was an operation with flawless execution, vision, leadership at every level and a great ground game. I am not seeing this kind of organization today in the Democratic Party. There was a poll out today indicating the dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party was at the same level as the Republican party. After the success in 2018, voters are expecting results from the Democrats, which they are not seeing. And neither am I. We need to get more organized and ready to fight the Republican machine or we are going be sorely disappointed in 2020.

  48. Currently, each Dem candidate is vying to be accepted by the most vocal social and environmental warriors. Keeps the negativity down. Their current promises and pronouncements are, of course, untenable to what is a mostly-moderate voting public. Once a Dem candidate is anointed, one would expect a much more rational, more do-able party platform. If not, the Republican Party won't be the one that is doomed.

  49. The Republican Party is not doomed unless the Democrats start getting some teeth and do some critical thinking and take on Trump. At the moment on the facebook page of 'Donald J Trump' official, he has some competition where you buy a straw and can win a free hat if you send in a photo of yourself with straw. Straws are made of plastic and pollute the environment and plastic kills dolphins and other fish in the ocean. get some young Democrats in the party to take him on and get yourselves some media time. Trump gets media time because he is controversial and it costs him nothing. It you don't get gutsy and take him on, and stick to your policies when criticising him, the democrats will not be seen as strong. Get your younger party members to take him on and have some guidelines; someone notable or personalities who will get media coverage time. Someone needs to point out that a free Trump hat won't get you hospital care or pay the bills. It's not a personality show and people should remember you're voting for policies not personalities.

  50. Let's not be optimistic or pessimistic about 2020. Let's be realistic. If the recent past is any indication of the recent future, the Democrats will continue to cannibalize themselves instead of putting their party above themselves, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Not only that, if more of them would decide to run for the Senate, House or governor, they would set the agenda through 2028. Remember, Trump never thought he'd win and managed his expectations. Dems would benefit from borrowing that page of his playbook. Vote.

  51. Donald Trump won’t say it, but Republicans in the Senate will: Social Security and Medicare would be on the chopping block in a second Trump term. Pointing to rising deficits, Republican senators have all but promised to gut entitlements if Trump gets four more years according to Forbes.

  52. We've heard this before--after the Goldwater debacle of course but also other times. Take it with a grain of salt, but make sure you vote and financially support the Good Ones.

  53. The Republican Party is not "doomed" and Mr. Greenberg does not remotely imply that it is. He just believes Trump will get a smaller share of the popular vote in 2020 than in 2016. Absent a war, he is probably right about that. The Democratic Party leadership is clueless and gutless, and has been for many years, and the GOP leaders have known that for many years. For this reason alone, the GOP will survive the defeat of Trump. If top Democratic politicians were fighters with backbones, their Republican counterparts could not survive for long degraded into the Party of Trump as they now are. But, in a two-party duopoly, where only one of the two parties is consistently ready and willing to fight hard, and to unscrupulously exploit any possible weakness of its "rival", that fighting party can escape doom even though it has almost no principles or purpose or redeeming value to the country left. Once Trump is gone, the GOP will quickly pivot away from any discussion of him. And the Democratic Party will soon enough be forced to stand for something other than being anti-Trump. The two will then contest the rubble they helped create, one fighting aggressively, the other wringing hands. Abraham Lincoln's grave is troubled. FDR and LBJ would be shocked. America will survive. Its political system as we have known may indeed be gone. But the two parties that have helped bring it down will live on. Americans appear incapable of imagining politics without them.

  54. We all know what polls are worth...

  55. Stop calling it the “party of Lincoln.” That has not been true for many, many decades. Now it’s just another right wing lie.

  56. I can't believe how many of my friends and Christians support Trump like good German lemmings on Kool aid as the cliffs grow closer. He embarrasses them, but they mumble: "Well, the economy is good" or "the Bible says there are no perfect men." To paraphrase Mencken: "You can never convince somebody of something they think is contrary to their economic interest." Factors bound to make it tough on democratic candidate: Roaring economy, Reduction of government restraints, Tax breaks, Voter suppression, Unsecured ballot boxes..Putin. The democrats have no obvious choice. The Republicans haven't started all out maligning. Kerry was up 20 points -- and lost to a man who was playing golf while he was being shot at on the Mekong River. I appreciate the author's sentiments but I'll believe them when I can celebrate.

  57. From your mouth to God's ear, Mr. Greenberg.

  58. To answer the question posed in the headline: No. No they don't.

  59. Can we pray for a fair election?

  60. "End Racism" is about as meaningless as "Pay Equality in Sports"--as if there is anything equal about sports, male or female, from ability to ad revenue to fan-following. In tennis, for example, how is it equal work for equal pay when women play best of three, men five? If the issue is biology isn't "fair", Nadal v. Andreescu, so, despite innate ability and its necessary limitations, culture--the Committee of Public Safety--should do what nature didn't do? And the ad nauseam "bloody shirt" waving of the left aside, where is "racism", save in college admission policies--which have produced nada--where competence becomes secondary to Cultural Marxist dogma? Whatever self-serving DNC Politburo ideology says it is?

  61. @Alice's Restaurant Therefore all those who think racism is a real thing and a bad thing are communists?? Good grief. Think much? And by the by, women make about 80 cents for every dollar earned by a man, often for doing exactly the same job. Wake up.

  62. @B It just so happens Cultural Marxists wave the "bloody shirt" as if "racism" is replete--like corruption in the deep swamp. Certainly isn't in the Post Office, or TSA, or airline workers of all sorts, or med school graduates, or many thousands of other jobs done by us all in America. And that 80 cents on the dollar is propaganda for those who like simple answers--don't like to "Think much". Men and women have different interests--e.g., orthopedic surgeons v. family medicine, Boeing engineers v. secondary teachers, the list goes on--which pushes them into different occupations with different pay scales. Now, if you are suggesting that a female healthcare workers should make what a male plumber makes, you have an argument--the Cultural Marxist uber alles argument.

  63. Trump won the electoral vote. Never had a mandate. This was done by kicking off millions of voters from the voting rolls and having a little help from Putin. Fox so called news tells as many lies as the man in the white house which is aired from coast to coast. Only one republican has said anything against Trump. The republicans have done nothing to help this this country at all. I love dirty air, I like the environment getting trashed, I like my autos to get five miles per gallon and on and on.

  64. Been waiting for it since last century. Hope you’re right.

  65. These read more than like the rambling fantasies of a partisan zealot than the sober assessment of a pollster. Perhaps this is why the polls were so off in 2916, leading some to ponder - other than the polls what other evidence is there that Hillary is ahead?

  66. @Wilbur Clark The polls were not off. On the eve of the election, they largely predicted a toss up. While Clinton was still favored, most pollsters recognized that Trump could win in the way that he did.

  67. This assumes election results will be honored. There is increasing evidence Republicans do not hold such a view if they lose, their plan b if their constant disfranchisement of the populus on occasion fails. Indeed it is almost certain Trump will not leave office if he loses, confirming his alter ego Michael Cohen's prediction. It is time for citizens to confront this question directly.

  68. The Republican Party might be doomed if they do this in Trump's 2nd Term: Donald Trump won’t say it, but Republicans in the Senate will: Social Security and Medicare would be on the chopping block in a second Trump term. Pointing to rising deficits, Republican senators have all but promised to gut entitlements if Trump gets four more years according to Forbes.

  69. I want to say so many things. We need to make it mandatory that every single adult in the country has to vote in every election and issue that comes up to be voted on by the people. There is no valid or legitimate argument to be made against the idea. How could making us more democratic be bad? I'm not naive, I am sure the same forces who worked for decades to come up with the scam reagan pulled on us to destroy the New Deal & get us here will find ways to corrupt that system too. But to not do it is like not putting your money into a bank because they get robbed.

  70. My parents live in Florida. Their experience doesn't match this article at all. I live in Chicago and get out to Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin pretty regularly. I don't see this in the midwest either. I don't think that any poll was made for the oddity that is the Trump presidency. The whole thing is so abnormal and pushes all the American buttons on race in such a way that I don't think polling will ever be accurate.

  71. I think it's wishful thinking. The Republicans are so strong in so many parts of the country - those which can produce the electoral college votes. Maybe those big states that Hillary lost in 2016 will go Democratic, but what does that need to happen? A great Democratic candidate. Maybe one pf the current leaders will develop into someone we can rally behind with enthusiasm. Let's hope. And, those who call for impeachment are probably just ensuring Trump's re-election. His real failure is not (just) that he is corrupt to his core, but that he is completely unfit for office - mentally unbalanced and totally incompetent to boot.

  72. As better minds than mine have observed, it may be democracy that is doomed. Even our founders weren't convinced that the populace at large could govern themselves, and our political system reflects that. That was before the chaos of instantaneous connections, social media, and networks devoted to misinformation. They feed the most reactionary parts of our primate brains. All over the world democracies are being shaken at their foundations and authoritarianism is on the rise. Now add in weapons of mass destruction, the growing threat of cyber warfare in a world ever more dependent on technology, and environmental issues. Our future is not so bright.

  73. For the last 40-50 years, the federal government has been unable to address teh type of problems which it historically handled reasonably well. Infrastructure: whether it is "crumbling" or not, it has not kept pace with population and economic growth. That was NOT true before 1975 or so. Education: This is primarily state responsibility, but the ridiculous variation in quality and the emergence of debt peonage for many who obtain 'higher' education were and are matters of at least partial federal concern. Healthcare. Inncreasing inequality, which is both a cause and consequence of the failure to address these other problems. The reason is the Republican Party: its refusal to offer solutions or cooperate with Democrats in fashioning them. Obamacare is symptomatic: the Democrats passed Romneycare on a national scale, only to face bitter, implacable and mindless opposition from the Republicans.

  74. My grandfather was a small businessman who was doing quite well before the great Depression. He lost everything but to his dying day he blamed Roosevelt for his problems not the bankers and financial factors that were the real cause. Today when I talk to small business owners they are overwhelmingly for Trump and blame most of their problems on the government. Some things never change but luckily the majority of people in this country are not small business owners.

  75. Never, at least in our USA, has political doom been more deserved.

  76. "The 2020 election will be transformative like few in our history." Sorry but I'm having transformation fatigue.

  77. It is funny for me to hear some of the cautioning against things like Medicare for all and eliminating private insurance. People love their private insurance, they say. Really? Who actually loves their health insurer? Those with insurance through their employer know only one thing: medical care will still be very expensive, but if you did not have insurance it would bankrupt you. Where is the love in that? Employers change their insurers every year. I never hear anyone say, "Oh, no, don't change to Anthem, we must stay with Blue Cross Blue Shield!" No one pays any attention, except to complain about both, probably. And yet, Medicare has a very good reputation. People love Medicare. So, I think, some see political danger, political suicide, where it does not exist. The Green New Deal, what is so scary about that? It's an infrastructure plan. Finally an infrastructure plan. A jobs plan. Finally a jobs plan. Who cares, green whatever, we need infrastructure, we need jobs. Why is this so scare. To the voters, it is not. And so on.

  78. Eulogies to the GOP have been happening for a long time, I can find several saying the GOP was a finished party in 1964 after the loss of Goldwater. In my lifetime I remember that being said yet again in 2008 after their major loss under Obama. Somehow reactionaries survive. The simple fact is as long as we have billionaires we will have the GOP. The Democratic base and the Democratic Party Leadership are two very different things. The problem with the Dems is that the leadership is actually vehemently opposed to most of their own constituents goals. This is why they always come across so wishy washy and weak. They have force behind them but rather then targeting and unleashing it, they capture it and attempt to diffuse it. Trading large powerful programs like M4A for small victories in the world of manners towards elites and respect for the media. The Democratic Party its incoherent because the leadership badly needs to be completely replaced.

  79. "Mr. Greenberg is a Democratic pollster" Great and why should we care what he thinks about the Republican Party? This whole "the right is doomed" has been circulating for as long as I've been around. It's wishful thinking. Think about this: it's not a coincidence that Americans are politically divided 50/50. Traditional bases of support may change, but we should expect the 50/50 left/right divide to continue for the time being. In a two party system, that seems almost inevitable.

  80. Is Mr. Greenberg a secret Republican? 2018 was about Republicans taking away your health care. If Warren or Sanders are the nominee, 2020 will be about Democrats taking away your health care. If thats the kind of transformative change being offered, Democrats will lose. Losing, even when its is easy to win by doing the popular thing, is one of Democrats' core competencies. Mr. Greenberg is one of the reasons they are so good at this.

  81. I have great hope that this entire editorial is true and wil unfold throughout the 2020 election. But we Democrats will not win next year with ridiculously expensive proposals like Medicare for all and free college tuition for all which Trump and the GOP will scream that all income taxes will have to rise to pay for those ideas. And the constant drumbeat of impeachment with only 14 months before the election is an unnecessary distraction as most voters feel impeachment should happen in Nov. 2020 and not before. Stick to the issues and the facts if we're going to make Republican rule a bad memory.

  82. “Automatic weapons”? There we’re NO automatic weapons used in the various mass shooter events in the USA in the past few years. Repeat it after me. “NONE.” The black rifles that this author tries to cite are SEMI-automatic weapons. An automatic fires so long as you hold the trigger. It’s darned near impossible to buy or possess these legally as a civilian. Can’t buy them, can’t even find them, not unless you’re rolling with big time drug dealers and arms smugglers with international connections. The semi-automatics used in the attacks fire only once per trigger pull. The removable magazine enables a fast reload but there is nothing magical about the weapon. One squeeze, one bang. Bigger magazine means more shots before reloads. They do not spray bullets like in a cheesy action movie. It can be fast but it’s not the brrrrrrrrrrpppppt of a Rambo movie. Get it right. GET IT RIGHT! Stop lying. Words matter and people on the other side know immediately when you have it wrong. When you get it wrong, everything else that you just said becomes meaningless because you’ve proven that you do not know what you are taking about, dear author.

  83. Automatic, schautomatic. We all know kind of weapons of war did the killing in Newtown, Dallas, Las Vegas, Odessa, Orlando, Parkland, etc etc. We all know they were all purchased after Bush II let the Clinton-era ban lapse. We don't need to split hairs. We have it right: More Guns = More Deaths. Military weapons have no place in a civil society; reasonable people are starting to catch on to that. Gun worshippers have left lus little choice: Repeal and Confiscate.

  84. This appears a bit too pedantic and intellectually oriented for even an NYT Op Ed. Democrats need prepare 3-4 word slogans that precisely present Trump’s harm and Democrats answers —responsive to, and delivered to each critical voting area of the nation.

  85. Vote Blue, no matter who.

  86. I’m a moderate republican that voted twice for Obama and against trump Based on the socialists running on the democratic side I will either sit out this election or swallow the vomit in back of my throat and vote trump 2020

  87. @alec you should read more about socialism before you comment. None of the democrat candidates are calling for the state/government to take over industry, business, all means of production. What some of them are advocating for are better services, protections and supports for the people. Before you go on about “welfare” please think about the current tax breaks to corporations and the wealthiest people, the tax payer supported farm bills that only support corporate farmers, the minuscule cost, thanks to the taxpayers, the extraction industry and cattle industry pays to ruin our public lands...I would rather our taxes go to supporting medical care for everyone, free education, restrictions on things that threaten our health and safety, daycare for working parents- in other words all the things citizens of civilized nations enjoy.

  88. NYT might want to clarify the following misleading text: "...his administration's rescue of the big banks..." The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (the bank bailout) was signed into law by President George W. Bush before the 2008 presidential election.

  89. Trump was doomed in 2016. Perhaps you grossly underestimate the number of White Nationalists in this country.

  90. Or the fact the Hillary was a known and unpopular candidate. And I’m being generous.

  91. I hate peace and prosperity ,bring on the dems .

  92. How better to personify Republican doom than our zombie president?

  93. "... the Republican Party as we know it." Republicans as I know them, starting back in '63 or so, are; law abiding, flag waving, "my country right or wrong", "love it or leave it", pro government, pro business, tax paying, police supporting, church going, folks who imply they have more and better morals than you. So what do the Republicans of yesteryear, "as we know" them, have to do with the tax cheating, fraud scheming grifters with ties to corrupt foreign leaders, money laundering, lawless liars we now see occupying the White House and other political offices, judges benches and cabinet seats?

  94. The American people decided some time ago not to vote or educate themselves about the nuances and complexity of their beloved nation. They decided to forget that the country was built on principles of liberal democracy and they decided to ignore the inalienable system of ethics underlying said principles. If it were any different, every city in this country with more than a thousand people would look like Hong Kong has for the past several months. The Republican Party is in control permanently. Get used to it.

  95. What the Democrats must do is make the case that unless we take care of our environment, nobody wins and the Earth will reclaim us. That should be an easy case to make, and it's a win-win, creating real jobs when non-renewable industries are closing up shop and/or feeding at the trough of corporate welfare. The Republicans are backing the horse that will bury us in waste.

  96. The Republican Party is doomed? Be interesting if Trump wins again.

  97. It's obviously just a matter of time. But how much--and can we last that long?

  98. From your mouth to God's ear. But I'm not as optimistic as you are. The Democrats have a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Just yesterday I believe there was an article about Sanders supporters who did not vote in 2016 or were ashamed to admit they voted for Hillary. If Biden gets the nomination they will stay home and elect Trump.

  99. Articles like this ignore the massive right wing propaganda machine ('a 'la Fox News), the behavior of the electorate, and the temerity of the media in not truly challenging lies and deceptions by the Republicans (a point the Times' Paul Krugman often laments). Trump's base is alive and well, as is the Republican party, who will have plenty of victories in 2020. And quite possibly again in the White House. Mr. Greenberg needs to widen his lenses.

  100. Here's what is missing: there aren't anymore Trumps. That why the GOP is doomed. None of your "he's losing the support of this or that group of white people". He's going to make a solid run in 2020 and, if he loses, he'll be back in 2024. Stop and think: there IS some chance he'll lose in 2020. Then what? He isn't just going to disappear. He'll either demand a rematch--fabulous television; better ratings than LaBron got--or he'll do an apprentice-type show (Spring of '23) to find his own replacement. Outcome: it'll go right down to the wire (Pence vs Kid Rock )and he'll say, "I just have to run again myself". What a finale!

  101. The problem with both parties right now is how they are being bullied and manipulated by the most extreme elements of their parties. The moderate Republicans are being manipulated by the Trump-supporting extremists, which is why Republican politicians often act sycophantic to the President and his base. Meanwhile, the Democrats are being manipulated by the "woke" twitter mob, which represents only a small percentage of their party.This often makes people like myself, someone who is in the middle of the political spectrum feel like a man without a country. Hopefully, this election will be a referendum against radicalism of any sorts.

  102. Maybe, maybe not in 2020. But I tend to agree long term. What really strikes me is the tone of these comments. It's truly amazing. So much civility and intelligent discourse. After looking at Fox News commentary a number of times, it really blows me away with the contrast. Are Fox readers such a minority? Or are there just so many people out there able to hide their hate/ignorance so effectively?

  103. The answer is: no, the democrats don't. They are still back at the 2016 primary when it was centrism vs progressivism - that is where their focus is, sadly. The loudest voices on the left are sending the message to America that it's either full blown democratic socialism or Trump. This idea that Trump will be SO BAD that democrats will have no choice but to have their revolution at long last. It likely won't go that way because they'll lose the middle and Trump will be right there to snatch it up...

  104. Make voting mandatory. The Republicans will be a powerless third party.

  105. Just out of curiosity, how are you going to get someone to vote if they don’t like any of the candidates?

  106. Greenberg’s inspiring, evidence-based analysis must not become part of a presumption of Democratic victory that likely caused some Democrats in 2016 to not vote, due to presumption that Clinton would win. We must work for 2020 victory as if Trump is as likely to win as he brashly believes he will. The real message here, to my mind, is buried at the end, as the conclusion to a long, well-argued case: “Democrats should ... get to work building a bold era of progressive reform.” EXACTLY what needs to be done to quickly undo Trump’s damage, when the Democratic presidency hits the ground running? Think of where the economy would be, if the U.S. had followed through with the brilliant Trans-Pacific Partnership that, with U.S. engagement, would compel China to comply with its WTO commitments. Think of the greater willingness of corporate America to comply with the Paris Accords agenda, if they could rely on U.S. leadership. Think of prospects for avoiding military action when collaborative global leadership works diplomatically. Business investment wants this! Think of the cost savings to national debt. On and on, one could imagine: Infrastructure programs that will give U.S. business greater futures than tax breaks that get funneled into buy-backs and dividends. But the Democrats must dress their progressive policy proposals in an inspiring vision for overworked citizens who can’t keep up with details. Democrats must not shy from authentically inspiring rhetoric.

  107. We have a family member who lives in the midwest and visited our city, out on the West Coast. In the midwest, Fox News reigns and so does Trump, no matter that this relative is highly educated. When this relative visited our city over the summer, he was surprised to see the misinformation he had been fed. Example: local FOX news in his town in the midwest had reported an exodus of people leaving our City...False..He spent 2 weeks with us, plane ticket paid by my husband and while he was with us and after dinner we got into some pretty healthy conversations about the "true" nature of all Trump things. Alas, once this relative got back to the midwest, he got into his typical Fox News and "I support Trump state of mind." Why? because everyone around him also supports Trump.

  108. Instead of the phrase "observant Catholics," might I suggest "right-wing Catholics" or -- if that's too pejorative -- "conservative Catholics." Like so many other groups (Latinos, Asians), Catholics are a very diverse bunch. While there's a modest link between regular Mass attendance and support for Republicans, it's by no means a given. Many observant Catholics are deeply committed to social justice and progressive policies. Just ask any nun.

  109. Make no mistake. The GOP isn't waging war on government; it's waging war on democracy, itself. The GOP understands that their power holds up only by depriving the majority of proper representation in government.

  110. Would that Mr Greenberg is correct, but I am reluctant to trust Democratic pollsters after the monumental mis-call in 2016.

  111. If Republican voters applied logic to their selection of candidates, the party would be doomed. That has not, and will not happen: Republicans are ignoring all the things that are wrong with trump and trumpism out of their hatred for "elites, Liberals, people living on the coasts and Democrats in general".

  112. I did consider myself a genetic Republican as I am a descendant of William Henry Seward, the Secretary of State to President Abraham Lincoln. But I am not of anything that Donald Trump stands for. So I will vote Democratic in 2020. I was impressed with John Kelly and Jim Mattis who often kept a check on President's worst impulses. I am reading "Call Sign Chaos Learning to Lead" by General Mattis. I never have been comfortable with governing by Twitter. Most presidents know how to operate behind the scenes and then come out to give press conferences on important stories. The Shuttle Challenger explosion Ronald Reagan, 9/11 George W. Bush, the death of Osama bin Laden Barack Obama. Some of the incoming Democrats, both female and male are pragmatic and many are combat veterans. Some former prosecutors. Women, especially of color are more prevalent. Republicans used to be for fiscal restraint. Under Trump this year we are likely to break a $ 1.0 Trillion deficit. And states are in lockstep saying no Republican primary for 2020. Even though there are three good candidates. Notice that Trump gives a few off-hand comments on the way to Marine One, the presidential helicopter. His rallies are the way he gives his supporters red meat. Almost always castigating and blaming the Democrats for everything. If he mentions "The Squad" one more time, for me it will be time for a stiff drink.

  113. I wish I were optimistic about transformation but over the last four decades the GOP has succeeded in systematically weakening the ability of the electorate to be fairly represented. The measures they've implemented, combined with the Electoral College and disproportionate red state influence in the Senate, present a formidable obstacle to the transformation sought by most Americans. Here's the latest example: closing polling places in red states

  114. Obama did the right thing. He took one for the team by going to the mat—and spending a ton of political capital on health care reform, to say nothing about bailing out car companies and pushing through a stimulus program in the face of stiff, and largely unprincipled, opposition. Yes, Dems took a hit in 2012. It was worth it.

  115. I am cautiously optimistic that trump can be defeated in '20 if the Dems avoid radical or controversial candidates, but progressives that address the concerns of voters who feel left behind or ignored. And as important, the Dems must get their base to the polls. That means the base of all the Dem candidates!

  116. The Electoral College still ensures an over-representation of voters in less-populated states, most of which are "red." Also, I'm very alarmed by the Democratic Party where two of the front-runners -- Biden and Sanders -- are obviously too old to take on such a job as President in January 2021.

  117. Incredible how this facially thorough piece ignores the Democrats’ Achilles heel: identity politics and the progressives’ social justice platform. We’ve known that most Democrat gains in ‘18 were by moderates - not AOC progressives. We’ve known that economic populism has solid crossover appeal. But if the Democrats pick a social progressive, we will learn again that even if the Republican Party is woefully damaged, voters will vote the middle, as they do, and as we know, and treat the Democrats to another electoral - and possibly popular - drubbing. We are blundering ahead in the face of a known danger. Why?

  118. @MWR Because "moderation" means moving to the right. More corporate welfare, less healthcare, more inequality, more punishment of the poor, more oppression of women and minorities. To me, that is Democratic Moderates represent.

  119. Isn't this the same kind of thing that the Times predicted right before Trump's election? That the Republican Party was doomed? I would argue that the Republican Party speaks for far more Americans than does the current iteration of the Democratic Party, which still seems to be run by polarized interest groups and neoliberal pro-corporate economic policy. Take the blinders off. The cultural left has torn the Dems to shreds with infighting and intolerance toward anyone outside specific interest groups. It is a divide and conquer strategy that the Clintons honed quite well; it will continue to lose elections. The vast majority of the country despises far left cultural politics.

  120. Yes! Ask Sister Marybeth of the Fillipini Order here in Morristown NJ about her lifetime commitment to social justice; she is an inspiration to anyone who enthusiastically practices Jesus’s commandment “love your neighbor as you love “. She does this around the world by helping educate orphans and many other life transforming/saving efforts.

  121. I share the countless different concerns of the countless tribal special interest groups (tall/short, rich/poor, black/white, gay/straight, etc) but I value my paycheck more. I have a 1/3 of my check directly withheld as income tax and probably have 1/2 or more taken in tax once you include them all (gas tax, property tax, etc). I don’t think the world will be any better off by my losing even more of my paycheck. I share this because it’s a powerful unspoken motivator at the ballot box for anybody who has a job.

  122. If Democrats gain control of the political system it will not last long. To fund the continual expansion of government and benefits that generates public support, you must eventually reach more deeply into the pockets of those that you relied on to provide a winning majority. To produce a pre-ordained equality of outcomes, you must jettison merit and eventually cast aside many who bought into the rhetoric of a benign government that cares for all. To expand the state's reach into more areas of life, you must limit the liberty that many of your supporters thought the government would provide. Eventually, you either lose elections or you more tightly hold onto power via the government colossus you have created. Either way, the democratic political panacea you started out to create can't last forever. All politics is, if not cyclical, constantly evolving.

  123. @Robert Stalin solved this inherent Grand Collective problem with gulags and state confiscation of wealth. Warren, Bernie, Buttigieg, et al. know this truth, just not willing to be honest about where it will take us all. Total control of healthcare is just the beginning. The citizens and the property of the state are the same--listen closely to Bernie, Warren, Buttigieg, Booker, and Harris.

  124. So rather than asking voters which candidate is more “electable” or who has the best chance of defeating President Trump, we need to ask which leader best understands this tumultuous period. Which candidate has a theory of the case that pushes aside other interpretations and critiques? ... Yang?

  125. The mistake Democrats can make here is to go too far to the left in a mistaken belief that those who have left the Republican party behind them are not endorsing some basic reorientations in the purpose of government. Many Americans are just not as enamored of the Scandinavian welfare state's cost as some American socialists may believe. On top of everything, the Democrats have to come up with an immigration reform plan that is not based on amnesty first, implementation second.

  126. @Adrienne So, GOP policies are just fine as they are, and you doubt they could ever implement anything better

  127. As someone with an MA in political science & PhD in IPE from a prestigious Ivy school, let's begin by recognizing that, as currently devised by Greenberg and other mainstream pollsters, polls measure ONLY the pollster's understanding of the things to be "measured" Should the pollster NOT understand either relevant internal dynamics, or how the dynamics of what she wants to measure relate to other interdependent phenomena, the results are intellectually humorous and politically absurd This seems to be the case claiming the imminent demise of the RPBs Quite apart from being deeply if unintentionally fallacious, the argument avoids addressing, let alone solving, the key un-formulated but politically crucial question: If the "data" do, in fact, say what he says they say, what does that mean for the concrete policies & candidates Dems at ALL levels should run? A "list" of "findings" is nearly useless in guiding choices for many reasons, not least that "single-issue" voting is a major reason RPBs can continually construct seemingly heterodox, yet consistently winning, coalitions Within the modern Dems, there are two main wings: the corporate, exemplified by Biden, the Clintons and Obama; the progressive, exemplified by Ted Kennedy and, variably, Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren To be useful, Greenberg needs to say which wing, espousing which program, can do better in the current scene He avoids this completely Given this, what's the point of the whole exercise?

  128. To respond to the question, based on recent comments made by Democratic candidates, it's not likely they will know how to respond. They will probably whimper and whine about some single progressive issue and pose little more than a distraction. Meanwhile, the presidency will slip by them in the next election as they hand it over to the Republicans. Sad, sad and sadder still.

  129. Obama is examined by rational people and seen to have been a disaster in more ways than one. He escalated the troops abroad in general and the Afghanistan war. He bailed out the banks. He created a horrid medical plan which gave the private companies great power; not a medicare for all. In Israel and Palestine he made horrid, biased criminal decisions. He made the tax break to the wealthy permanent. He did nothing for unions. He was a moderate Republican. He supported the military industrial complex like all the neo-liberals do and he took great sums of money from Wall Street and the wealthy and did nothing to control the huge disparity in wealth in america. He carried on just like all the administrations do pushing Americans closer and closer to the brink of destruction. There will be no medicare for all, no elimination of nuclear weapons, no control of climate change, no change in the wealth distribution problem nor the horrid monies in the campaign finance system. Doom is in the air and we all can feel it. The corporations control everything and what the people want is ignored. Corruption will continue though.

  130. I don't share Mr. Greenberg's optimism, but I do agree with this statement: "the fight is ... to set the agenda and motivate voters to get involved and pick a side." Exactly why Hillary Clinton lost.

  131. Saying the Republicans are in trouble because they did so poorly in 2018 indicates that the writer isn't thinking too clearly. Obama and the Democrats got steamrolled in 2010. I seem to recall him doing OK in 2012. Reagan got blasted at the polls in 1982. I seem to recall him winning 49 states in 1984. I surely hope we kick this bum (and his buddies) out next year. But 2018 doesn't mean anything.

  132. If the Dems pick Vice President Biden to be the nominee then I fear that it is the Democratic Party that is doomed.

  133. No. Americans have a choice between a smart President or a democrat and if (and that's a big if) you can find democrat that is smarter than a brick..., well, we'll wait till that happens.

  134. I have become convinced that the democrat's slogan should be "Do Something!" Government of the people, by the people, for the people. Government. Boy does that sound like the promised land to this exhausted citizen!

  135. "The Republican Party is doomed," says the Democrat poll cat. Yeah, sure, and Hillary had the election in the bag. When Idi Amin, I mean Trump's machine goes into the next election, expect to see super sized fraud, violence, voter suppression, closed polling places, sheriff roadblocks, ballot stealing in polling places and post offices, hacked computer voting machines, ballot stuffing of Richard Daley proportions. The Dems who have been known to cheat and fix elections are virgin Girl Scouts compared to what the Republicans will do. The Democrats had better find ways to stop GOP operatives from shamelessly cheating in the next elections. that will be tough, even if Dem turnout is at record highs.

  136. Observant catholics supporting Trump? The Catholic Church made Mother Teresa a saint - now called Saint Teresa of Calcutta. How is support of Trump consistent with that? I suppose the poor and needy should just be told to get lost.

  137. "This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?" The circular firing squad forms up...

  138. The Republican Party is Not going to weakened until its huge money supply is dried up. A spy from Britain noted what is different from the Cold War days is that Oligarchs in the West are now working with the Oligarchs from the East. Oligarchs in the West who are so far to the right that they make a kind of natural cause with those on the other side of the world. Both of them have in common a great contempt for the ordinary conduct of democracy. They want to diminish it. They see it [democracy] as their enemy. John Le Carré On His 'Legacy' Of Spying The only tool we have to deal with our own Oligarchs here in the USA is with Taxes. We have to drain away enough of their wealth to inhibit their bad behavior and control their very destructive influence that they have over others. This goes a long way in explaining the behavior of Republicans in the House and the Senate.

  139. I have little to no confidence in the political skills of the Democrats. Just look at 2016 if you think I'm being too harsh. They should have folded up their tent when they couldn't beat an obviously unqualified G.W. Bush...TWICE. Once was even after Bush had started a needless war! For decades they have been bringing a knife to the political gunfight the Republicans have been waging. Sadly I don't see any changes coming from this current crowd.

  140. Nice dream. More likely our country is doomed, in which case so is the world.

  141. I hope your optimism is justified. I used to be a Republican when they were a party of conservatives, not the trillion dollar deficit party of Trump and racist demagogues. I changed my registration to independent which means I can vote in either primary since I live in Colorado. I will be voting in the Democratic primary based on electability. I can appreciate Warren; I would have to swallow hard on Sanders, but he is not Trump. That's what matters most to me.

  142. Seems like we should remember that Trump didn't really win the presidential election in 2016. He only won the Electoral College and that is where the US has gone wrong--TWICE!!!

  143. @bbop To win the Electoral College is to win the presidential election. THAT is what we should remember.

  144. You really need to take a basic Civics class.

  145. Oh I really hope this happens, but I'm skeptical. Maybe its just because I live in a Red State (that went Blue for Obama 11 years ago), but it seems like Trump, for all his personal repulsiveness, has genuine admirers and supporters. I can't name a single Democrat with that same kind of support. Remember, the GOP is the dirty party, and my God, they play dirty. They even eat their own - think of John McCain in 2000 when Dubya's campaign passed out the smear in the south that his adopted Bangledeshi daughter was his love child with a Black woman. This is a party that invented the Whitewater "Scandal" out of thin air and acted like it was worse thing for 10 years. This is the party that accused Barack Obama of every crime in the book and of being a communist when in reality he had rather moderate and even some arguably conservative policies. This is a party without a conscience, without a soul. This is a party that has convinced virtually an entire religion (Evangelicalism that is) to side with it above all else as an article of faith - even when its policies violate the tenets of the Bible. This is a party that will go to any lengths to win, with no thought of decency or patriotism to stand in their way. And why? My God, why? Because they are being paid a whole lot of money, and because - hate sells. So I while wish the Democrats every victory and plan on supporting whomever is the Dem candidate, I am not sure we should break out the champagne just yet.

  146. I definitely agree that the time to go big for Democrats is now. Among the shocks of the 2016 election was the discovery that even rank and file Republicans are done with Trickle Down economics, want a more activist government, and want to trim the power of corporations. This is right in the Dems' wheelhouse. The problem? Their stand on illegal immigration, which is the liberal version of climate change denial. They refuse to admit that an uncontrolled in-flow of desperate, destitute, unskilled, often illiterate people into the workforce obliterates our ability to shore up the middle class, increase blue collar wages, rebuild unions, obtain a $15 hr. minimum wage, get "free college," provide comprehensive healthcare, reduce costs of housing - even have functioning pubic schools and other municipal services. They will not only deny reality, but slander anyone willing to say the truth as a "bigot."

  147. @Livonian Absolutely right on. Lots of us are scared about changes to "entitlements" and the inequality of wealth. The erosion of environmental safeguards. If the Dems stuck with those things, I and a lot of other Republican-leaners would jump on board. In a heartbeat. But they colossally misjudge the immigration issue (on which Trump is dead on right), and then add reparations to the stew. Oh, and on all matters racial, a white Boomer male like me simply needs to shut up. I'm not at all convinced the Dems won't blow it again.

  148. Hopefully, these ideas will influence the upcoming Democratic campaign to unseat Trump. While championing small government and frugal budgets, Tea Party Republicans have enabled a level of greed that has weakened restrictions on corporations and created a gigantic and growing level of income disparity between the wealthiest and the poorest in America. Trump was able to fool many Americans into believing he would stand up for them despite the obvious reality that he cared vastly more about his own fortunes than theirs and didn’t possess any of the skills needed to accomplish what they thought they were supporting. What he does understand is greed. It is the foundation that underlays and supports the Republican Party. That greed is antithetical to what the voters who supported him in 2016 thought they were voting for. Democrats need to look at the data presented here and stop obsessing about Medicare for All. Greed! Avarice on a vast scale that has and will continue to run amok if left alone to breed it’s special brand of contempt. This is the winning theme of the 2020 campaign. Slap that label on every single Republican running for any office, anywhere. Make the Republicans own it and force their shameless self-interest into the light. The policy plans are OK, but they need to be bathed in a blinding light that reveals how Republican corruption is working against average Americans. It may not matter which Democrat prevails, as long as there is a clear focus on greed.

  149. As brilliant and refreshing as this article is, my gut tells me this is wishful thinking. 80 percent of repulblicas support this president. we are split right down the middle. look at the elections since gore. doesnt matter who runs. similar razor thin wins. immmigrants are not all democrats nor voters. Race is all Trump needs and as he says if you have a hit show don't change it. This worked for a few guys over the course of history. putin has a hit show too.

  150. Mr. Greenberg made an excellent case for Democrats to not vote for Joe Biden.

  151. If the GOP is [already] doomed, the Democrats need do nothing. If the moment is [already] transformational, the Democrats need do nothing. Sorry, but I can't resist picking apart cheerleading.