The Republican Party Is Doomed

This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?

Comments: 193

  1. Yes! Now let’s follow up with stories about people who are organizing, registering, running for office, and show people how to be active in this democracy! Enough with the Trump rallies and the fetishizing profiles of Trump voters. Show us the 60% who are mad as hell and are going to fight to save our Republic; Berners, Buttigiegs, mod Dems, new candidates at every level...why aren’t all these patriots featured on these pages every day?

  2. All these Times Op-Eds are the same: - President is evil but actually has a point about ____ - Democrats are better but actually will lose because of ____ Once again, the ONLY way this dude can win re-election is he same way he won his first "election" ... by CHEATING

  3. Every good American will be working to oust as many Republicans from every level of government possible in the coming years. Their violent racist xenophobic ideology is poison

  4. Wishful thinking on the part of an avowed liberal. The Republicans under this idiot President will suffer but as the electorate watches the venerable Democrats inch closer and closer to Socialism and enslavement of people of color with debilitating government programs all they will do is usher in 4 more years of this kook. Democrats led by AOC and the other "Brides of Isis" will do nothing but snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

  5. Yawn. Another op-ed that says the days of the GOP are numbered . No way. The party will survive Trump, even his reelection, which is looking like a sure thing. Don't underestimate those who did not and will not vote for Trump , but have zero faith in the direction of the Democratic Party. The ideals of limited but focused government, personal responsibility, and fiscal responsibility will stand in the face of the administrative\nanny state that AOC and Beto are espousing. It'll be a different Republican party, and needs to be, but it will survive. Have a great day!

  6. @My Aim Is True And the 2018 midterms prove your point how?

  7. I've seen this obit before, but the GOZP (zombie) continues to stagger back to animation ad wreak havoc.

  8. I hope so

  9. Dear Mr. Greenberg, I will believe it when I see it. Republicans are like dandelions in my lawn. No matter what I do, they still pop up and try to kill my lawn.

  10. Correct on all points.

  11. Don't count your chickens. Everyone else must vote.

  12. After watching and listening to Trump the past couple of weeks, I don't think there is much of a chance that he will last until November 2020. He is obviously mentally compromised and looks like a physical wreck. Even his makeup has become very clown-like. What is going on? What an horrible spectacle this has turned into. What a mistake.

  13. Great article, but political parties and their voters and control of branches of the government (both state and federal) are not driven by logic and reason.. they are driven by reptile brain reactionary conflict based US vs THEM emotions.

  14. i'm leery of most attempts to argue one's personal and already convinced opinions from polling data. the 2016 election showed us all, definitively, what polls are not good for: they are not good for predicting the future -- especially the future that one passionately desires. i prefer the method of groundhog day, which is that you have one really good, really reliable predictor of the future, and you go with that. some people prefer a large rodent for the coming of spring; i prefer the sentiments revealed in widespread behavior. i see no widespread repudiation of racism, or the public flaunting of firearms; no pullback from extremist crimes or conspiracy theories; no groundswell of material support for the poor and newly arrived. i only read a lot of wishful thinking or dire forecasts in the press about social trends that have piddling significance in comparison to climate change. over a century ago hans eysenck defined the personality trait "toughmindedness" in political opinions and implied it had a genetic basis. i see no reason to believe that the "crazy 30%" of the electorate, strongly motivated by religious superstitions, will relent in its opinions anytime soon. "the poor will always be with us," -- yes, and the misguided too. they have the ballot, and they will not conveniently fade away.

  15. @drollere You’re wrong. The polls predicted the popular vote win for Clinton almost exactly. They were well within the margin of error for the slim wins in three states that gave Trump the electoral college.

  16. Oh, do I wish the title of this editorial were a true statement. But alas, with the vast majority of Republican voters choosing their party no matter who the candidate is, I doubt that The Republican Party can be vanquished from national government.

  17. @Eric Holzman No one can "vote for their own interests," if one party offers them the interests of billionaires and the other side offers to compromise with that. What does it even mean to compromise, when you haven't offered an opposing view to compromise from. Compromise is not a party platform plank. It is the last step of the process, after two sides offer opposing solutions, and make strong cases for why they are right. Only when the negotiations are near the end are you supposed to trade away items from your wish list for items on their wish list. Values are the things you never give away. Values are your power and GET YOU ELECTED. If Centrist Democrats stopped helping Republicans push through bad policies by refusing to actually oppose them, but instead, compromised with the Left base of their own party, who (despite lies from corporate media) mostly tries to help workers and their families with programs like the minimum wage, healthcare, education, and infrastructure, then many workers on the Right would follow their greed and vote for the party offering them "free stuff." Mitch McConnell is in the Senate because he brings $2.50 in federal spending to Kentucky for ever $1.00 they pay in federal taxes. When Republicans say they don't want "free stuff" they are lying. Greed is all about free stuff and they praise greed. Workers will trade racism to help their families, but you have to promise to actually help them, not tell them, "there is no money." Left values win

  18. @Eric Holzman In the words of Grover Norquist, and mixing metaphors a bit, the Republican Party might someday be small enough to strangle in a bathtub.

  19. This analysis leaves out two important facts: Many districts in potential "swing" states are extremely gerrymandered. Therefore, although the total number of votes garnered by Democrats exceeds Republican, Republicans continue to hold many more Congressional seats. Secondly, the Electoral College system favors the GOP candidates - even Trump. Liberals are concentrated in large, urban areas. Winning by a landslide in CA and NY doesn't mean anything. Unless people in FL, MI, WI, PA, and OH decide to swing a bit to the Democratic side, Trump will win again. The number of electoral votes given to large population states dominated by Democrats is not proportionately large enough to out weigh the states that will always vote GOP. Smaller conservative states have an influence much larger than there population deserves, and this is why Democrats win national elections by number of votes, but still lose.

  20. @dairyfarmersdaughter: This entire system revolves around making votes not count at all.

  21. Americans may be gaining an appreciation for immigrants and their hard work, but the gun lovers will always vote Republican, as will the right-to-lifers and all the evangelicals, no matter what. It will be a close race and it will all come down to turnout, with Republicans having the advantage of voter suppression and Gerrymandering. No, Republicans might be morally bankrupt, but they really know how to hang on to power. Vote like your country depends on it, because it does.

  22. @Jim Dennis: These folks just cannot abide the constitutional prohibition of faith-based legislation. They believe they act for a God that is just themselves in their mirrors.

  23. I don't believe that the majority Americans are single issue voters. Yes the gun lovers and anti-abortion people probably won't vote Democratic, but they are relatively small numbers compared to the voters who recognize just how damaging Trump's Presidency has been to our country.

  24. @Mebschn - I can only hope you are right. I wouldn't discount the numbers, though, especially for gun rights. For abortion, I think the two sides are evenly matched.

  25. Please stop referring to people living on the coasts as elites. Most of us are not and we're struggling as much as anyone else is to survive. It's these types of labels that push people away from good ideas and interfere with their ability to listen and understand what is being proposed or discussed. As far as this reader is concerned both parties are filled with and run by people who have no comprehension of what life has become for the average American. Nor do they care because they are more interested in getting elected, getting in the news, or making a viral tweet. The hard work of governing the country is beyond most of them. It's easier to be wooed, flattered, and "whined" and dined by rich donors. Those rich donors are the elite, not the people in the cities, living on the coasts, or going to college.

  26. @hen3ry: Scoring political popularity by how much money candidates raise gives positive feedback to wealth concentration.

  27. Mr. Greenberg writes: "A quarter of Republicans were moderates in 2018." How does this figure jibe with current polls that indicate nearly 90% of Republicans approve of Trump's performance in office?

  28. @Larry Sherman It means most of the moderates have left the party probably to become independents.

  29. Mr. Greenberg, I hope you are right. However, your op-ed reads more like a hope and less like a data driven consensus view. It seems to be mixing cause and effect with desired outcome. I wonder if the same type of mistake in 2016 caused the complacency that led us to current state. Please remember that what is happening can sometimes be very different from what we wish would happen. America has always had a dangerous affection for misplaced rhetoric and ideology. That is how we elected Reagan. That is how we got to Trump. I would not at all be sanguine about this ship turning around this soon.

  30. "Democrats should be looking not just to defeat Donald Trump and the Republican Party, but to get to work building a bold era of progressive reform." Exactly. This is the moment we built toward. We must avoid those who want a return to status quo before Trump. They are the ones insisting that defeat of Trump is all that matters. Many are really Republicans who just want a better Republican candidate, safely from the Democrats so the Republican ideas cannot possibly lose.

  31. I have said it before and I will say it again: The first thing the Democrats need to do if they ever again hold the House, Senate and Presidency simultaneously is to lift the cap on the total number of seats in the House. It is why Republican gerrymandering is so effective and why the Electoral College so tilted. As long as the map is so tilted toward less populated areas of the country, the Tea Party strategy/message will continue to choke the system.

  32. I respect Mr. Greenberg, but NO ONE knows what will happen next year. So many voters were complacent in 2016, thinking Hillary was a shoo-in. Therefore they stayed home or cast spoiler votes. This must NOT happen again! Yes, your vote DOES count!

  33. The pendulum swings, and then it swings back the other way. There is nothing unusual about what is going on here. It is very possible that the Democrats will win in 2020, and maybe even win big. But then they will over-reach. They will misinterpret a disgust for Trump for an endorsement of everything progressive, and that will be a huge mistake. When Obama ran as a centrist in 2008, at a time when Bush Jr was vilified for his foreign wars and the great recession, it was very likely that a Democrat, any Democrat, would win. Obama took that and ran left. He was able to enact the ACA, but antagonized enough of the country to ensure he could not get much other legislation passed after that, and his further executive actions around transgender bathrooms and the Dreamers further divided the country. And that gave Trump the opening he needed. If Elizabeth Warren or another progressive wins next year, it won't be because so many Americans want to give up their employer-provided insurance or because they want open borders. It will be because people are tired of Trump and want "anyone else". But if the Democratic winner starts to enact Green New Deals, reparations, or Medicare for All, we will likely see Trump Version 2.0 in 2024. Republicans are not doomed, as long as Democratic winners overreach. And they always do.

  34. the largest metropolitan center in the United States that the Republicans had went blue in 2018, Tarrant County, Texas. Reading the Tea leaves as many as 9 Republican representatives have elected to spend more time with their families in Texas. Texas will go blue next year and with it the Republicans electoral college chances of ever regaining the White House. Republicans win when the turnout is 55% of less. The turnout next year will be in excess of 70%, at this level the Republican party will cease to exist in most areas of the country. Hope is Trump was worth it.

  35. The author's argument assumes the American system is perfect, therefore capable of self-adjustment at all possible scenarios. This is evidently not true: America will disappear someday; it's only a matter of how and when.

  36. Mr. Greenberg you may be correct, but over the years I have read so many post mortems on the Republican Party I've lost count and yet, they are in control of the United States. Almost lock, stock, and barrel. Bobby Jindal said that Republicans had to stop being the 'stupid' party and then that same party doubled down on stupid and won again! The Republicans are just like Marvel's 'Hydra,' cut off one head and seven will replace it! Never count these people out - never. They are well financed, they have the finest strategists, covert operators, and think tanks that money can buy. They may re-brand, they may say 'new and improved and now with extra (fill in the blank) ' but they will be the same people pushing the same agenda.

  37. @JD Ripper Good points and it will take decades, but even the Republicans can't fight all of the trends going against the party forever. More women, more minorities, more urban dwellers, less religious and more educated are all where this country is going and where the Republican party is not.

  38. @JD Ripper I don't think that Greenberg is saying that we shouldn't work to win the election. I think he is saying that to win this election you have to trust your own values and not try to sacrifice your values to win a center that doesn't really exist. What Greenberg is trying to show you with his numbers, is that moderates are not halfway between extremist Right-wing Republicans and sellout centrist Democrats. Moderates lean left, because the left is not nearly as extreme the Right, despite corporate media telling us that the left is just as dangerous as white supremacist terrorist sympathisers, because they vigorously oppose white supremacist terrorist sympathisers who openly call for ethnic cleansing in the USA. Extreme is helping a president who acts like a king by calling for violence against citizens without due process, demanding personal loyalty from public servants (fealty), claiming he can ignore the 14th Amendment to take away citizenship from those born here, musing about multiple terms in office or being "president for life" which he equates to "king" and saying that Americans should "sit in attention" for him with "fervor," and always governing by personal whim rather than faithfully executing the law. Extreme is an entire party taking the side of a hostile intelligence service attacking our elections, while attacking the FBI. There is nothing like this on the Left whose values are aligned with the Constitution. (Read it and compare ). Left Values Win.

  39. @JD Ripper That is the threat. There will always be new people to co-opt. Repealing Glass-Steagall financial protections and consolidating commercial banking with mortgage lending unquestionably led to the trauma of 2008, but somehow, the bankers got to party on the bailout passed in the last days of the Bush administration, and the Obama administration was never able to go for full reinstatement. Citibank and Goldman Sachs, the principal architects of this disaster, today remain forces for unbridled, anti-democratic exploitation worldwide. If you have any doubt about their intentions just search the web for Citibank's infamous "plutonomy memos." They identified the "one-person, one-vote" governing principle as the sole remaining risk to the their very wealthiest clients, but not an insurmountable one. The convergence of plutocratic interests from Putin to Trump to Johnson, empowered by Russia's disinformation campaign, Murdoch's propaganda empire, and well-funded Republican think tanks, has nearly neutered any hope for governments "of the people, by the people, and for the people," to promote rational, democratic policies in the face of the constant bark of fear and hate. "Divide et conquista." No one knows that better than the heavily tax-exempted 1 percenters.

  40. The Republican Party was a rotten shriveling corpus without Trump. But beyond 2020, Trump is a reputational disaster for them. A generation of kids coming of age in last four years, whether they were ready or not, gained political consciousness, and will associate Trump's vulgar hateful racist incompetence with the Republican Party for their life time. The Republicans may remake itself and become a viable party for modern America at some point, but they'll have a Trump legacy problem for years to come.

  41. Excellent Piece! “....a defining partisan difference: a Republican Party determined to destroy government outside of defense and a Democratic Party determined to use it expansively.” And do Dem leaders know how to make advantage of this? I say no, they do not. Because The GOP strategy & tactics dating back to Gingrich’s “The New Contract for America” was not a political assault but actual anarchy against The USC or the lawful, legal & identifying framework of our Public governance itself. Impeachment’s, Impeachment’s & Impeachment’s Proceedings against not just Presidents but any and all US Public Officials guilty of improper conducts as judged by Peers (House Members) but not by public courts and or The Public itself is the first essential Duty of each House member even before doing legislation. Congress is ‘the’ self-policing and judgmental Body of the USA. One does not have to hold a law degree or a high school diploma to be elected President or a Congressperson. ‘Good’ wisdom, judgement, honesty & trustworthiness are the requisite personal qualifications required to perform the job. Senate or House members can remove each other by simple majority votes without an impeachment Trial! What are ‘We’ suppose to wait every two or four years to exercise a new Voting judgement? While those We are paying and are in direct charge are politically befuddled. Firing employees is seldom comfortable but sometimes necessary. Manage personnel or resign now!

  42. @Samuel Owen: Newt Gingrich is proof that failure to enforce minimum standards of decency surrenders any human pursuit to the foulest.

  43. @Steve Bolger Well said, Sir!

  44. The far-left Demos agenda is doomed. Trump will easily win re-election in 2020 and will save the USA from a far-left socialistic doom.

  45. Yeah! Americans can never have what citizens of every other first world nation have had for decades! We will never invest our taxes in the health and education of our citizens! Let’s have more medical bankruptcies! Let’s chain our children to high interest student debt! Tax cuts for the rich!

  46. We are all doomed. What else is new?

  47. Beware! Beware! Such a smart man is Greenberg but so wrong. This analysis is the kind of sweet-tasting pap that led to the week-after-week predications on the front page of the NYT online in fall 2106 of a HRC victory "probability" of 75-80-90!% Remember always: HRC won the popular vote, but it is the ELECTORAL COLLEGE that decides the election, not the 3MM votes in Cal. And as that Ornstein-Mann analysis reveals: increasingly, 70% or the electoral college vote will be in states with 30% of the population, and 70% of the population in states with 30% of the electoral college.... Greenberg is not helping us with this stuff.

  48. Trump, a cruel and mendacious narcissist, has been a moral catastrophe for the nation. How much of the damage he has done can be remedied? Maybe Mr. Greenberg is correctly diagnosing the trends in the electorate, but at this point I'd settle for a good person as President. Not a saint, but simply a person without hate in her or his heart.

  49. @Mel: We all come with the same set of emotions. The differences lie in their relative importance to us, and our capacities to manage them.

  50. A political party that denies that public sectors of mixed economies were created to conduct socialism is just plain sociopathic and worse than useless.

  51. This column is profoundly ignorant of US history and encourages the already complacent democratic party to just sit back and let it happen. Real analysts and informed people are aware of the period following US Civil War and reconstruction ,and how it took almost 75 years for the franchise to become freely available to women and african-americans. Many Trumpers are quite open in their ambition to repeat that period with violence, vote suppression and use of a see-no-evil supreme court to maintain supremacy for a group that considers only itself really american.

  52. The lame “Russia” excuse has been beat to death. The only thing the Russians did of impact was exposing DNC’s own internal e-mails. Which shined a needed light on their candidate and campaign.

  53. Just about everyone with a modicum of accurate information disagrees with you.

  54. Wishful thinking at best, unfortunately...

  55. I read these same words in 2015.

  56. I'm not impressed with the conclusions. hard to see the death of the GOP if 26% of the population view immigrants as a burden, and 16% of moderates still identify as Republicans. GOPers are with Dorothy, skipping down the yellow brick road in search of courage, a brain, and a heart. May they all stay in the land of OZ

  57. @John MD: The diehards will stick it out to their deaths because that's when the payoff is supposed to happen: happiness forever.

  58. @John MD Probably the best and funniest comment I read so far.

  59. So unspeakably sad the delusion behind this piece, that there will be a "free" election in 2020 for president or any other office...because Putin has already decided to keep 45 in the White House. Good luck running interference around Russian interference, since the Russians also know that our venerable two-party system is a dead joke.

  60. I've been reading articles like this for 20 years and I'm getting the impression that we all could grow old and die waiting for the Republican party to be doomed. All it does is get noisier, more racist, more spendthrift, more tax avoidant, more anti-science, more anti-women, more vote-suppressant. Considering how solidly mobilized the reactionary financiers of the party are it would not be surprising if this power matrix simply leads to the abolition of voting and elections altogether. It's not as if the current party sees any legitimacy in the Democratic opposition.

  61. It’s facile to say this is just wishful thinking. However, 2018 is proof of this wish fulfilled. There is no reason to believe that the 2018 wave was a fluke or that things look better now for Trump and the Republicans. Today, we learn from the Times that people are losing healthcare because Trump and the Republicans are taking it away from them. Republicans are bailing from Congress like rats on a sinking ship. Democrats need to do what the people want, not what the Tea Party and CEOs want.

  62. @Doug Lowenthal: Money front-runs the voters in the US. Republicans have been funding selected Democrats for decades.

  63. Good luck with that bold progressive reform now that McConnell has stuffed the courts with radical ideologues who will side with every challenge to every "reform" the Dems throw out.

  64. @gdurt Even right-leaning judges will *usually* put the rule of law above just winning. Yes, there will be decisions that don't go toward restorative justice or advance progressivism but not many decisions will re-instate segregation or take the vote away from women and minorities either. The 44% who didn't vote in 2016 are coming back to the polls and will give Trump and the GOP lasting comeuppance for governing as if they had an actual mandate.

  65. @gdurt: These "judges" can't even honestly tell us what an "establishment of region" is.

  66. Will you please stop referring to anyone who doesn’t live in Nebraska as elites? It’s a divisive, political talking point, not an accurate characterization.

  67. @Dave Kellogg: Where one lives defines one's political relevance in the US. It doesn't matter how educated one is if one's vote counts for nothing for living in a wrong place.

  68. During his tenure, the Democrats representation in state governments plummeted but Obama was always just about Obama. We all got to feel good about ourselves for electing a black man as President and then he gave away the store to Wall Street and his Ivy League buddies, after delegating a Citibank chairman to pick his cabinet. Having left office, Obama now snaps selfies with billionaires, which should surprise no one. This bait-and-switch paved the way for Trump and his faux populism. I'm still waiting for any of the Democratic candidates to swear that there will not be one Wall Streeter in their cabinet; now that would get my vote! Not even Warren or Sanders has yet taken that oath.

  69. @stan continople: Obama made quite plain in "The Audacity of Hope" that he wanted to be a kinder and gentler Ronald Reagan who would crowd-source political solutions. He got so much Republican money to run against Hillary that he believed the party would support him as president.

  70. There is really only one way to take gerrymandering out of US Congressional elections: electing the state's entire delegation in an at-large state-wide election.

  71. For a doomed party, it appears to have rather stable vital signs. The current Republican Party has successfully manipulated the fear and anxieties of rural whites and aging suburban homeowners with the skill of a maniacal Elmer Gantry. As long as there remain a class of Americans who are skeptical of science and afraid of anything 'other" I suspect the GOP will continue to be able to feed cash into the mouths of the wealthy whilst pacifying their starving constituents with reassurances that they are protecting them from people who wish to take their guns from them and force them to embrace Islam.

  72. @Robert As long as centrists control the Democratic Party and refuse to offer a real alternative to policies based on hate, greed, and violence, the Democrats will continue to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The Republicans represent the richest .01% and the richer 20% that they pay to promote their policies. The Democrats are supposed to represent the 60% of the population that works for a wage plus their families. With odds like that Democrats should never lose. Indeed, Democrats controlled Congress for nearly 60 years when they promised to tax the mega rich to invest in All Americans. Democrats won when they enacted policies Republicans decried as "socialism," like Social Security, Medicare, giant public works programs like the WPA and CCC that employed a combined 11.5 million people building infrastructure, built the Interstate Highway System (with a signature from Ike), funded basic research and put a man on the moon, sent kids to college, paid down the debt from WWII, and more, all with high taxes on the very rich. Ever since centrist Democrats started giving away our values, getting nothing in return, turnout is down and they lost control of the states, were election law is made, and the Senate for 16 of the last 20 years. If the Left does not take over the Democratic Party and make it the Party of workers once again, workers will not vote, the Left will not help, and the Centrists will whine that no one voted for their "safe" candidate, yet again.

  73. @Robert Farmers still support Trump even though farm bankruptcies and suicides accelerate. If they still don't see the con man for what he is they need to leave the farm every now and again.

  74. @McGloin You've got it backwards. The center is no more in the Democratic Party. It is all about the evil white Americans and removing any barriers to even reasonable controls on poor, uneducated, unskilled immigrants flooding into the country. This doesn't benefit anybody who works for a living or pays taxes of any race. The center at one time, stood for working people, the environment, tax fairness and main stream issues. No more. The left and their identity focused and free everything politics have taken over.

  75. What the United States will get, at least for a number of years, will be a stream of federal court rulings. Some may undo the modern regulatory state that began to develop under Theodore Roosevelt and flourished under Franklin Roosevelt. Clean air, safe drugs, safe food, and much more may disappear as the authority to regulate returns from agencies to Congress.

  76. @David Martin: Congress has abrogated its most important powers because the state elect drones to it to avoid adult supervision.

  77. The Republican Party is unraveling, a pollster just told us so. He backs his Opinion piece up with great stats and polls and the result of the last midterm election. Where incidentally moderate Dems won. But 85% of Republicans support Trump. If the Republican party is falling apart there will be fewer votes cast for Trump. So all the Dems have to do is turn out and vote. HaHa. Do it and stop complaining about the other side or the Media which daily published Trump's tweets which tells all. Just vote

  78. I agree that post-2020, the GOP will be a transformed party. The question is whether it will be crushed in a blue wave, or morph into "national socialism," with the added frisson of evangelical inquisition.

  79. While I’m glad the message is one of an imminent blue tsunami, we’re fourteen months from the election and anything can happen. Trump can start a war. He can change VPs. The economy might rebound. Democrats might choose the least attractive candidate. GOP defections in the House are a promising sign. But if I were advising the Democratic nominee, I’d suggest that he or she deliberately embrace a moderate agenda and tone, and spare the public the details. Remember, Trump promised a big, beautiful replacement of Obamacare even though wiser heads knew only repeal was on the agenda. Republicans never agonize over policy details because they’re anti-intellectual. They just wrap themselves in cultural values and call Democrats anti-American. It has worked for decades. Democrats need to borrow a little from this playbook. People’s eyes glaze over when Democrats argue over the merits of single payer and public option. Reasonable people just want to make sure Dems aren’t going to do more harm by lurching too far to the left, even if we Dems want it. The nominee should avoid sounding wonky, not overpromise and sound the least threatening possible. Then, when elected, go big.

  80. The stake in the heart of the GOP, the silver bullet, will be the overhaul, if not outright abolishment, of the electoral college, which has undermined, and made a mockery, of our democracy. Let each vote count and the majority rule.

  81. @riddley walker Can we assume there will be a majority? Why not a six-way split with the "winner" getting 20%? We haven't seen another Perot since 1996, because Ross Perot and all other billionaires discovered in 1992 that you may affect the outcome of the election but you have no chance to win under the current system with 20% of the vote because it won't garner you votes in the Electoral College. If only the popular vote counts and in a multi-candidate field no one gets more than 20%, it's worth jumping in as a billionaire, and getting your 20%, which might be a winning total. It's true that the obvious benefits of the EC (usually inflating the margin of the popular vote winner) have been replaced with serious weaknesses. That does not mean that any new system will serve us better. It could be worse. Have a runoff? And how much longer will our two-year election campaign take? Can the runoff be squeezed in before Inauguration Day, what with more debates and printing new ballots? Ranked voting: How long did it take to determine a winner in one lonely House seat in Maine in 2018? Imagine the legal challenges to ranked voting in a close national election. Anyone think someone like Donald Trump, for one, would go quietly if he/she won the popular vote in the first round without a majority, but lost in the count of 2nd place ballots, like Bruce Poliquin in Maine? Would those legal challenges end before Inauguration Day? If not, who is president on January 21, 20XX?

  82. @riddley walker: That miserable coward Trump could have gotten the Electoral College consigned to the trash heap of history by refusing to take office 3 million votes short of a plurality. Instead he has played "Gotcha!" to a helpless nation.

  83. Hillary's shocking loss (stolen election) and Trump's outrages have awoken the women in this country who have been more passive in the past. Moms Demand Action on more than just gun control! We are never going back or taking anything for granted again. We will remake this country to OUR vision-so it works for us and our families! BUT: This article can only come true if there is a vast and continued turn out of Democrats and left leaning third-party voters working together to remake our country. Democrats must pick a Progressive candidate who energizes the young so that they actually turn out to vote like they did for Obama.

  84. This all sounds so wonderful, but I remember a lesson I learned in grammar school, that if something seems too good to be true, it usually is. First of all, if Mr. Greenberg is a pollster, is he polling people from both parties or just Democrats? Second, is he communicating his findings to the candidates? Most of the present bunch of Democratic candidates seem pretty clueless as to how to beat Trump, Joe Biden most of all. The other commenters I read are right. Ignorance is a strong force to pierce through and the fervent believers who are convinced that acting against their own best interest is the right thing to do will be hard to beat once Trump starts whipping them into a rabid frenzy. And if the lofty goal is achieved of more firmer control of government by progressive choices, the defeated party won't ride off into the sunset or scatter to dark corners. They will continue to make themselves heard in the destructive manner which they have adapted since Trump began encouraging and empowering them. Even the change in administrations could be disorderly and violent if Trump won't admit defeat, which is entirely possible. I will bookmark this article and go back to it the day after the 2020 election to see how accurate Mr Greenberg ends up being.

  85. The NY Times today has an article about how the surging energy sector in Texas has created many new jobs for down and out Americans. As the article points out, the USA has now become the world's largest oil producer. The Democrats would work to destroy the fossil fuel sector and on top of that massively expand social programs when we have a trillion dollar deficit already. Is that a formula for dooming the Republican Party? I don't think so.

  86. Your point completely ignores the true cost of fossil fuels, and what their use will ultimately do to the US economy. Try to imagine what the climate-induced depression will do to our employment rate. Fossil fuel production is just another trump sugar high - it's not sustainable, and comes at a dear cost.

  87. @Aerys Well, Barack Obama just plunked down $14 million for a beachfront estate in Martha's Vineyard. He doesn't seem to be too worried about global warming and rising sea levels.

  88. A trillion dollar deficit doesn’t seem to matter when the issue is tax cuts for the rich or more trillions for our bloated military industrial complex. But investing our taxes in the health and education of Americans? Oh no! Can’t have that!

  89. One quibble with your terminology: you say "large numbers of observant Catholics" support Trump. As a LIBERAL "observant" Catholic who knows many others like me, I can say NO, we are NOT Trumpers. We are socially-progressive Democrats. You're confusing "observant" with "conservative." Religious participation does not exclude liberal thought and actions.

  90. @Mary the Librarian And you're confusing anecdotal evidence with broad trends.

  91. The implication of all this number-crunching is that "America" is ready for an activist, even a progressive wave election. Maybe. The trouble, as we are all painfully aware, is that the Electors in a few districts in a handful of states wag the national electoral dog. My question is whether Mr Greenburg's thesis applicable in Western Pennsylania, etc., right now? Or will Trump be granted four more years to destroy the country while opinion slowly shifts just outside the borders of these places? Is this a thesis about a broad shift, or one presuming to direct a 2020 electoral strategy?

  92. @Gregory Adair: A court has ruled that a presidential elector can vote as they choose. Voting in US presidential elections is about to get even more ridiculous. The 2020 election could be litigated for years.

  93. Until he -- and the scourge of Regan-republicanism that he metastasized -- is gone, we are still under siege. This piece feels good but should be no excuse for anyone to let up on the diligence this moment demands. Resist. Resist. Resist.

  94. Talk about an out-to-lunch pollster. We're going to be gagging on Republican legal rulings for the next 50 years because of all the right-wing judges appointed by McConnell Inc. up through the Supreme Court. Even if he were correct, the epic battle between the 3 branches of government and states hasn't even begun. As I've realized in recent years after moving near the South, the Civil War never really ended - it just metastasized into multiple other issues. The modern Republican Party is a continuation of the pro-slavery Democrat Party of the 1800s, and it'll just change shape again in the future.

  95. I do not think the Democratic leadership understands how to underscore what they have done. Pelosi called her first bill regarding voting rights HR1....does she understand the American public does not have a clue what HR1 is? If the Dems cannot even let the public know what they have tried to do in English...I do not have hope they can take advantage of anything.

  96. We should never underestimate the Democratic Party's ability to drop the ball.

  97. Nothing like NYT objectivity: a Democratic party operative opining on "bipartisanship" and why the Republican Party needs to leave the scene. I applaud the editors for their out-of-the-box/never-would-have-expected-it/unparalleled-fresh-insight approach to "issues."

  98. From your lips to God's ear.

  99. “No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.” H.L. Mencken, 1926 One can only hope than Mr. Mencken will be wrong this time...

  100. I've been hoping for a long that that the GOP just goes away, and the Dems split into 'center' and 'left' Really, they've been an irrelevant and evil party of racism since before I was born, with Nixon. The Reagan era really set them on the path that has culminated with Trump, though.

  101. "Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?" Probably not.

  102. Democratic Pollsters are not to be trusted given recent experience of the 2016 election. Vegas Oddsmakers have Trump beating any and all Democrats. The smart money says this pollster is full of it!

  103. The Republican party is NOT doomed. Recent history (since Reagan) has shown that the American electorate has enuf believers in the nGOP ideology that the party will remain viable and operative.

  104. Pitching to the far left for a primary is not the same as campaigning for POTUS. It was far right who delivered Trump, and as much of a disaster as he's been, he still has advantages. But, if Dems continue down HRC road of slice and dice, many voter may stay home. Dems need something more compelling than what we've seen. 1.) Presidential command. Trump can call his base white trash and they'll still cheer. Too many Dems are acting like they want to be teacher's pet, and won't survive Reps' seasoned bullies. 2.) Vision all Americans can buy into. Reps create fear then come in as savior by selling a 19th c. fantasy (and 21st c. plutocracy). Dems - i.e. "America's success in the 21st century means restoring to all Americans the power to succeed." 3.) Focus on values, not details. The devil is in the details, and no one likes the devil. Support Medicare for All -- as a future policy goal. We cannot deliver now anyhow, so strengthen this basic 'American right' that "Reps want to destroy," instead of taking away something many like. 4.) Don't take the bait. POTUS is a leader of people, not an underling with spreadsheets. 5.) Go very high, and let Americans watch as Trump digs a new low.

  105. Republicans have always wanted to destroy government except for defense. That's nothing new. So that ersatz de novo nugget makes me wonder about the validity of the rest of this piece. The only message that matters is turnout. If blue voters voted for Democrats with the same reliability and regularity as red voters vote for Republicans, the GOP would vanish overnight. So no more pouting, no more staying home, no more 3d-party votes. Unless you want to see Donald Trump re-elected.

  106. I don't know that fascism is ever entirely doomed, any more than history ever ends, but that is without a doubt what the Repubican Party stands for now. Destroying the reputations of good people with chatter and dismissing critical ideas with anti-science cultism, while uplifting the most despicable of frauds and promoting destructive nonsense. Today, it radiates outward from Putin in Russia, from Mitch and Trump in the USA, from Balsonaro in Peru, Johnson in the UK, and reverberates throughout the world fanning riots, lynchings and even genocides. The forces of contempt, division and domination are fanning hate everywhere, because rational solutions are not what they do. In the end, they have only disaster to offer.

  107. By electing and enabling Trump, the GOP has etched its own epitaph. After the Presidency of Donald Trump, millions and millions of Independent and Democratic Americans will NEVER vote for any Republican or any office ever again because they know that the GOP DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THEM. I could go on forever with examples but we all know it's true. Trump isn't even pretending to be a President for all Americans. The GOP isn't even pretending to care about anyone but their voters/donors. And that's bad. That's awful. That's un-American. But what really pushes this from "next election" to "not ever"? It's that millions of regular voting conservatives see this, know this, and don't also don't care. The conservative voters of American have apparently decided I'm ok with ignoring their fellow citizens because "we won". This demonstrates that the modern GOP voter lacks empathy and principles and believes in only power which should be used only for their party's benefit and not for the benefit of all Americans. If you're not part of the GOP this is easy (and depressing) to see. And millions of Americans are never going to vote GOP now, ever again. It's not everyone. But it's enough to push the GOP into the minority forever and soon.

  108. I would like to think Mr. Greenberg is right, but the implosion of the GOP has been repeatedly predicted for 40-odd years and right now, with the recent exception of the House after the mid-terms, they ARE the Government. Moreover, they control the electoral college outcome in numerous key states that they have gerrymandered to the point where they will always hold power in those states, having stacked the courts as well. So, barring a massive shift among the electorate and a massive turnout for the Dems, I'm not very optimistic.

  109. @AMS I'd be more inclined to agree with you EXCEPT that a NORTH CAROLINA court - I forget whether there was 1 Dem out of 3 or 2/3, but the ruling was unanimous - basically said (and this after the Supremes - no surprise - decided to dodge gerrymandering by saying it was "not their job - legislators decide!") "NO, those lines are simply outrageous - violating one person, 1 vote!" Yes, there's some heavy headwinds blowing here, but Mr. G's point is along the lines of "When it gets to 50% 'natural Democrats' and 15% 'swing voters,' you simply HAVE TO like the Dems' chances." I'd be more "with him" on all that, except that the RED team seems to show up more predictably on E.Day - most years!

  110. @pfusco friendly reminder: both parties have gerrymandered districts. be careful what you wish for.

  111. @G.G. It is true both parties have gerrymandered districts, but the current gerrymandering is almost exclusively a Republican tactic. Many Democratically controlled states are pushing for reforms which will help end this travesty.

  112. To be realistic both the Republicans and Democrats are ignoring the whole of this country and making no effort to achieve any consensus in any manner. Each Party is controlled by narrow issue groups who could not give a damn about anyone else. Each proudly proclaims how they will lead this country into their ideas of perfection without the annoyance of discussing what they want and their priorities to see what they can work out that satisfies everyone’s concerns. The gridlock in the Congress is reflecting gridlock across our politics.

  113. It's the corruption, stupid.

  114. I have not seen much change in the Republican Party from thirty plus years ago when their patron saint, Ronald Reagan won the Presidency while playing the race card. Trump has just allowed the GOP to expand its platform to now include the KKK, the Neo-Nazis, and other far right groups. In fact, the White House has its own dues paying member in Stephen Miller. Souther Republicans lead the pack. They were previously Democrats, only because Lincoln was a Republican. But with passage of the Civil Rights Act. they quickly abandoned the Democrats and formed the souther conference of bigots and bosses. It will take more than just a good thrashing at the polls to change the long held racist beliefs of Trump loyalists.

  115. I like his points, but I will believe it when I see it. None of my friends who voted for Trump have peeled off. They still hate minorities and our government.

  116. @WesTex "None of my friends who voted for Trump have peeled off. They still hate minorities and our government." Nice friends you keep. Why do you do that?

  117. @WesTex You're friends with people who hate minorities? Really? I realize that it's so much easier to just demonize the other side as racist, instead of actually acknowledging a good faith disagreements (which would require actual engagement), but these people are your friends!

  118. Maybe look for new friends?

  119. Keep dreaming- Trump wins again.

  120. Promises, promises....

  121. Could it be that the doom of the Republican Party becomes the undoing of the Democratic Party as well. If the Republicans lose big as the article is suggesting perhaps the outcome is many if not most of the Republican centrists and independents join the only party that matters or stay independents. Then vote their centrist views. The Republicans become a marginalized right wing party and the Democrats become the vast majority party that can't get anything done because of in-fighting. Most polls suggest the majority of Americans are centrist that accept progressive changes, but over time. Any party that ignores that and pushes to far left or right will be undone in the next election or two. Unfortunately we don't have a Center party so the push is to the right then the left and back again.

  122. I’ve sat in too many focus groups of Republicans over the last year to believe this. I think not only is the GOP here today, but its partisans are even stronger and more resolved in their beliefs than ever. I do think more Democrats than ever see corporate greed as a problem, but without an alternative, aspirational vision for what our country could be like, this narrative just makes people mad, and doesn’t lead to action.

  123. A Socialist society should be our goal. We have nothing to lose but our chains.

  124. we also have to face the fact that along with the Russians helping Trump win, we will also have the criminal regime of Saudi Arabia and Israel helping undermine our elections

  125. I disagree with this article. One thing that I have noticed: Democrats haven't sold business owners on voting against Trump. In my county, business owners are die hard Trump fans. They see Democrats as bad for business and business is everything. Under Democratic presidents, they have to do more paperwork and make less money. I recently got into an argument over this--my job is purchasing and Trump has thrown purchasing into a state of chaos--but I am told that Trump is "fantastic for business and understands what this country needs." You can say any statistic that you want and people won't change their minds. In their mind he is linked to good business and "unless you're a business owner you won't understand." If you could convince business owners that a Democrat would be good for business, I think Democrats could win the election. But how do you get there?

  126. @S Business owners are also fond of policies that don't hurt their bottom line. Like trade wars and tariffs. They also generally are NOT bigots, and respect the rule of law. All these things are way out of line with today's Republican party.

  127. @S There's one thing that business owners, like the GOP, love more than anything else, even low taxes, and that's low wages. And the GOP, including Trump, is all about lowering wages. Business owners claim to want "certainty." We hear this ad nauseum. But they want it only for themselves. For their employees, not so much. And, given that our economy is 70% consumer-driven, it would make sense for them to remember that their employees are someone else's customers and their customers are someone else's employees. And no business survives without customers. If you could convince me that business owners are considering where and how they will come up with customers in a country of low wages and downward mobility, I might view their opinions as having some credibility. But I'm tired of their opinions. Despite the fact that they are a tiny minority of the American workforce, the country has been run to their advantage for the last forty years. The result has been increasing insecurity for the majority of citizens, lower mobility, and a lack of opportunity. Enough already. Democrats need to convince *workers* that they are good for workers. Why? Because we're the majority.

  128. @S - "They see Democrats as bad for business and business" Despite the fact that analysis after analysis shows that the economy, i.e., business, tends to prosper with Democratic governments and suffers under Republican ones. And they had a clear example from Bush to Obama. Yet they believe in their myths.

  129. If Trump loses, it will either be because (1) boring, apologist moderate Dems were able to grab the nomination and young people, POC and progressives will stay home AGAIN like they did in 2018; or (2) moderate Dems decide to stay home or vote for Trump if a progressive wins the Democratic nomination. Moderate Dems cannot understand that most people don’t want their version of bipartisanship that caters to companies and continues the status quo that screws the middle class, poor and POC. That is the reason Clinton lost and Obama could not convince people to vote to retake Congress. Obama, and lying Trump, won because they offered change and repudiations of the status quo. If moderates can’t get behind real change, then we will see 4 more years of Trump.

  130. "Mr. Greenberg is a Democratic pollster." So begins a "thought piece," and one cannot help but think, "SURELY, he bears more responsibility than most for our having Donald Trump as President." Obviously, Hillary ran a poor campaign, ... and she certainly WAS badly advised by pollsters, among others. All but Nate Silver had colored in Michigan BLUE, and whatever else you can say, that boner was/is right up there with "Dewey wins." So ... moving right along - we have the 20th iteration of "Just look at the demographics." BUT ... the many new Latinos - the smallish percent who (for whatever reason) vote - are often TERRIBLY [sic] conservative, ready to pull up the gangplank now that they've gotten on board - among other things. African-Americans? May be "nice & progressive" in NYC, but "women's rights" don't seem to resonate down South, among millions who have too much church and too little education. And then we come to the anointed "YOUNGER GENERATION." There hasn't been activism "on campus" in any must-heed way since 1970! ... Just as hard-working union men & women, voting Dem. from age 20-50 TURNED on the party and its message somewhere between 1990 and now IN HUGE NUMBERS because they were ill-represented by the Dem. party ... I predict that the half (is it that high?) of the 20-40 year olds who are doing OK in this economy and many of the others who find it easier to blame immigration than themselves ... will both welcome and be welcomed by the Rep. party!

  131. As long as there are deep-pocketed business men with enough money to manipulate elections, and insecure racist white people, the GOP will likely keep going for quite sometime.

  132. @Andy. And as long as there are people who hate socialism and big government.

  133. I always scratch my head at the “Socialism” haters. I guess they don’t like police officers, firefighters, National Parks, mail delivery, highway systems, public schools, etc. List goes on. Guess we shouldn’t improve our infrastructure since that would be Socialism.

  134. As long as people think it’s ok that Americans can’t afford expensive for profit health care. As long as people think it’s ok for young people to graduate college with high interest student debt that will take a lifetime to discharge. As long as people think starvation wages are ok.

  135. paragraph #6 brought it all flooding back..... and it didn't feel good. such a terrible time. obama was and remains clueless about his role in the slow rolling disaster. great. we had a black president. great. he was "smart"..... but he was as callous to the suffering as any republican. the wealthy got bailed out the rest of us were expected to find new bootstraps.

  136. @coale johnson Sorry for your disappointment about Barack Obama's presidency. You noted: "but he was as callous to the suffering as any republican. the wealthy got bailed out the rest of us were expected to find new bootstraps." How's Donald working out for you? Is he hearing your concerns? I ask because to me, he sounds like a fake New York billionaire wannabe doing everything he can possibly do to eliminate the framework of equality we have struggled for, for generations, to enact--regulations on the financial systems, the environment, on both civil liberties and civil rights, that attempt to empower the least wealthy of us with the same rights as the most wealthy. I get that your, and millions of other Americans, had your feelings hurt. We are paying that price now. A year away from our next presidential election, we have a choice between the most corrupt, the most dishonest, most divisive, most incompetent, most self-dealing president this country has seen, and, well, just about anyone else--including challengers from his own party. How, really, do that black president's slights to you stack up against the loss of health insurance for millions of Americans? The weakening of common-sense environmental laws? +++ There's a reason this generation of conservatives feels looked down upon and seen as, just this week, incandescent bulbs. You can change that in your own way by noticing that billionaires are NEVER going to be in your favor unless you are also a billionaire.

  137. @Woody Packard i am capable of disliking obama and despising trump at the same time. don't get me wrong i am fully aware of the challenges obama faced and the things he did accomplish. the best thing about him was that he had a steady hand and a long game..... but the long game does not really work in this country anymore. there is no continuity there is a right wing that sees compromise as weakness.

  138. I seriously doubt the Republican Party is doomed. Trump will probably be re-elected. I hope I am completely wrong on both accounts.

  139. Mr. Greenburg aptly asks the question, "So rather than asking voters which candidate is more “electable” or who has the best chance of defeating President Trump, we need to ask which leader best understands this tumultuous period. Which candidate has a theory of the case that pushes aside other interpretations and critiques?" As a moderate myself, what we're looking for is a candidate who presents a clear vision and understanding of what today's problems are and regardless of how we got here, has the solutions to navigate the times and place us on better footing. For me, there is really only one candidate who embodies this and that's Andrew Yang. His identification of technology and automation as huge transformational forces, economically and socially are spot on, and his solutions present an America of the future, rather than one that's trying to relive an economy (and a past) that is looong dead and gone. And in his vision, he's already found support among moderates who are tired of old and used up talking points which continually echo through the halls on both the left and right. Andrew Yang may sound like a futurist, but isn't that what America presently needs? Recent polling suggests his support is broad enough to soundly beat Donald Trump. To restore our union we must retire old playbooks and embrace the fact that the world is intrinsically different than at any other point in history. Yang recognizes this and the Democratic party needs to as well.

  140. Lincoln stood for a strong Federal government that was willing to go to war to enforce its progressive, civil-rights agenda on the States. The republican party has no commonality with Lincoln at all.

  141. As my mom used to say, "from your lips to G-d's ears". My it be so that the Repubs are utterly crushed in 2020, the Dems take the Sentate, White House and expand their lead in the House. Then let's get to work together to address the massive challenges - and opportunities - facing America and the world. Climate change, corporate and personal greed beyond the pale, the lying. the corruption the disregard for American values and trashing those that built America - all of us are immigrants, by choice or by force (slavery), and we committed genocide on the Native Americans who were here long before anyone else. Time for truth, trust, honesty, and a higher level of consciousness and collaboration. Good luck to us all.

  142. @LoveCourageTruth my sentiments exactly.

  143. From your keyboard to God's ears. If only the DNC could get their act together. It's their election to lose and they very well might blow it.

  144. Take a page out of Grover Norquist's playbook: shrink the Republican party until it is small enough "to drown it in a bathtub."

  145. As my Mom used to say, "From your mouth to God's ears."

  146. The Republicans had and still have the winning platform, which is "we will help you keep your money in your wallet". The Democrats have a much harder sale with their message "give the government more of your money so we can make things better". Most people know that the government misuses and wastes money and the more money they get the more the waste and the misuse. So it's an uphill battle for Dems.

  147. I wish I had a dollar for every time in the past 25 years that the NYT has told us that the Republican Party is doomed.

  148. They’ve been so “doomed” that their every agenda item has been codified. They never get convicted or imprisoned for anything substantial. And the Dems are complicit with them. So don’t hold your breath.

  149. If this happens it will be short-lived. The Democrats might have the trifecta (President-House-Senate) for two years at most. The 2022 elections will be a reaction to the Democratic wins, and the GOP will retake one or both houses of Congress. In that respect, I would urge the democrats not to waste their opportunity like they did the last time, catering to the likes of moderate centrists like former senators Max Baucus and Blanche Lincoln. They must use their short available time to destroy the Republican structural advantage: pass anti-Gerrymandering bills, make election day a full week-end, pass a tax incentive for those who vote, outlaw disenfranchisement, support the interstate compact, and many other things. I'm not sure Nancy Pelosi is the one to lead us through that short-lived but incredibly important period, but I hope the next president sees the urgency of the situation.

  150. Under the heading of "understanding the political," do you have any thoughts on how to avoid overreaching? If the Democrats overreach, such as by pushing the abolition of private insurance or decriminalization of border crossings, they can put the Republicans right back in the fight.

  151. There is no question that the Republican Party, if not doomed, is going into a transitional phase. However, the next question is what about the Democratic Party? It too is in a transitional phase. The problem with the Democrats is that their leadership does not appear to recognize that anything is wrong. They, sadly are living in a bubble, out of touch with the Average American. They seem to want to live by polls, which is dangerous. A word of advice to the Democratic leadership: Go listen to Tom Russell's song "US Steel". Now, if when you listen you think it is only about the US Steel corporation, you are failing to grasp the real message of jobs being shipped overseas. Listen and get the message and maybe, just maybe, you might begin to understand the plight of Middle America.

  152. OK, so increasing majorities of voters are hostile to CEOs and think immigrants are a positive. Got it - good news. If those are the most important issues in swing voters' minds then the GOP is about to be toast. But if at kitchen tables in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania the important issue is how much Democrats' policies are going to stress their already uncertain economic pictures, the toaster is about to pop up some crispy progressives.

  153. I hope you are correct, Mr. Greenberg. I have heard this opinion over and over and yet the Republican party continues to strengthen itself and gain more power every decade. They control the media, they gerrymander, they suppress votes, they receive money from corporations, billionaires and the NRA. I don't see the Republican party, dominated by rich white men and their heirs, going away soon.

  154. Progressive magical thinking at its worst.

  155. @GANDER-FIR Have to agree with you here. The propaganda network, the hundreds of billions and the relentless plotting, strategizing and working will continue. It’s not going to disappear because they lost an election. There is always an appetite for resentment, fantasy and lies.

  156. Rumors of the death of the Republican Party are greatly exaggerated. If I remember correctly, if not supposedly dead pundit opinion had it on life support when Boehner quit and nobody wanted the job. Some death.

  157. I agree with everything here except on immigration. I don't think it is good policy to be for open borders, or even increased immigration. Immigration causes GDP per capita to fall. The idea that immigration is always good is erroneous. I read that because of China's one child policy, the number of Chinese people today is about 400 million less people, had they not enacted that policy. Think about that for a moment. That is more people than there are in the U.S. or even Europe. China would be so much poorer today had they not enacted that policy. Partly because of that policy, China's GDP per capita rose THREE times in the last twenty years or so.

  158. No surprises here. The party of Abraham Lincoln has become the party of Trump, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Laura Ingraham, and Ann Colter. Speaking of Lincoln, the great man would have switched parties long ago. Nominating Trump to Lincoln would have been the moral equivalent to Congress passing the Kansas-Nebraska Act. I'm serious.

  159. Why does a growing part of my Democratic Party want to follow an election strategy of complaining about President Obama? What reality are you in? Not one lived in by a majority of voters across many segments of this great country .

  160. @david: Obama did nothing to turn out Democrats to vote in the critical 2010 census year election. That ended his capacity to accomplish anything.

  161. Probably not. The guess here is that over time it will adjust it's philosophy and agenda so that it can reclaim a greater share of the electorate. Republicans have some smart and moneyed (influential) people atop their organization. Republicans did not capture the White House, the Senate, and thus the Supreme Court by accident or chance. In a more perfect world the Republican Party would get it. That it seems to be more out of step each day with mainstream America indicates decline, not demise, however. The proof will be in the pudding. 2020 will be a good indicator.

  162. The daily harangue against progressives and in favor of "moderate" Democrats. When a progressive wins the Democratic nomination, will you still be campaigning against them? Why is Bernie so much more scary than Trump?

  163. @Glassyeyed: Trump looks more presidential.

  164. Yes, trump has pushed the moderates, not to mention real conservatives, out of the republican party. But have Democrats given them an alternative they can live with? I don't know any Democratic moderate voters, most of the voters I know, who support removing the negative consequences of entering the US illegally by both decriminalizing illegal entry and then providing health insurance to those who do, and eliminating private health insurance, each of which was bought into by the top-polling presidential candidates at the first debate. If the Dems can't forge a coalition between progressives and moderates, they will leave a vacuum into which trump will swoop. Again.

  165. The Democrats continually put the "hate" on big corporations but they forget that 350 million people in the US have to be fed, clothed and housed every day along with medical care, etc. Only large corporations can deliver this scale of operations efficiently cost-effectively and upon demand. Ask the USSR how that central planning and forced collectivization plan worked out.

  166. You are creating a false choice. Businesses were highly successful in the past in the US (and currently in Germany and other countries) while paying real wages and offering some security in retirement for their loyal employees. Now they pay as little as they can get away with and have stripped any semblance of security from most jobs. The alternative is not central planning and no one is suggesting so. It’s Unions and decent minimum wages. It’s guaranteed (not free) Healthcare. It’s access to affordable tertiary education.

  167. This is an opportunity for Democrats. Let's hope the DNC eschews the policies and direction they took in 2016 and don't run a Republican Lite Neoliberal Candidate. Sanders, hate him or love him, and the Squad have established a far more progressive blue print and direction for Democrats that is very much embraced by younger voters and some of us older ones who remember that Democrats once represented working and middle class Americans before they represented big fossil fuel companies, corporations and Wall Street. It is more than obvious with looming issues like Climate Change that we can no longer indulge the extravagant avarice of unregulated capitalism.

  168. I don't buy this notion that Trump is on some kind of libertarian crusade to abolish the federal government. No president in US history has ever claimed such sweeping, unrestrained power to dictate the course of business and override the self-determination of free enterprise. Trump uses his regulatory powers to punish businesses for attempting to voluntarily limit their own pollution output. He believes he should have the unilateral power to suppress the free speech of any private entity. He thinks that he can single-handedly order all American businesses to stop doing business with any country that he doesn't like. He's steering us towards a Soviet-style centrally-planned economy in which all businesses are controlled by the government. Under Trump, profit and innovation have taken a backseat to his demands for loyalty and ideological conformity. The worst part is that none of this is intended to benefit America. He makes his decisions with the intention of benefiting foreign countries. He's intentionally destroying our ability to compete because foreign leaders are telling him to do so.

  169. Although the writer is clear on the current trend of people's frustrations with Trump and the GOP's embrace of pathological lying and sychophancy that ultimately rots the the native ideal of the former Party of Lincoln, there's an entirely new dimension that isn't discussed and that has to do with the rise of a poisonous combination of rightwing propaganda and international conspiracy that helped torpedo an election of 2016. There was an attack on our American democracy as never before which enlisted the efforts of a Russian dictator as well as the efforts of members of the Republican party in key battleground states by the use of gerrymandering and voter suppress aided and abetted by the propaganda network known as Fox News. The fatal flaw in our elections was well identified by GOP operatives by the concerted effort to obtain overweening power in the so-called battleground states. It was an effort that paid off handsomely for the extremists of the party both racially and culturally in their effort to elected a pathological liar and con man to the highest office of the land. The continued political attacks of Republicans used against the Democratic frontrunner based of spurious charges known as 'Benghazi' helped undermine her candidacy successfully, a subject they openly bragged about. Add to that the unique fumbling of the FBI and against the Republican efforts helped weaken and suppress an otherwise strong candidacy of the Democratic nominee.

  170. "...a Republican Party determined to destroy government outside of defense and a Democratic Party determined to use it expansively." Well, at least later you recall that this has been going on since before FDR, but why should this be the time that it sticks long term? Wonderful majority opinions, but will that majority get out and vote proportionally? And even that may not be good enough, given how far the gerrymandering has gone. America is sinking fast; get out and vote or we're doomed.

  171. The truth is, both parties are Capitalist parties, whose function is to reward the handful of billionaires--who pay for the campaigns of both Democratic and Republican politicians--with government policies that increase further their power and wealth. . . . The alternative fund raising method, via millions of small contributors over the Net, has made possible the candidacy of the Socialist Sanders, which is why he is anathema to the leadership of both parties. . . Under President Honest Don, the G.O.P. has already gone Fascist. If the Democrats remain simply one half of the Capitalist political duopoly, they are doomed. If they can transform into a Socialist party, they can save American democracy.

  172. @Red Allover Yes, the left must take over the Democratic Party to save democracy. Tell your left friends.

  173. "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." Trump knows how to keep his core. Give them judges who will overturn Roe v. Wade, kowtow to the NRA, provide cover for racists, and build a wall. That about covers it, and it's enough to keep them all on board. despite polls that look at disparate single issues and aren't tracking the voting intention of the responders . Trump has his eye on the electoral college, and no national polls are going to give us the granularity needed to win each state.

  174. @edv961 Trump knows this is a base election. Do the Democrats?

  175. I'm a person who did quite well after the Great Recession and am looking forward to a very nice retirement. And I'm someone who survey after survey (including the one the NYT just ran) says I should be a conservative and a Republican. And you know what: I'm voting for and work for Warren. Because I know that our country can't go on the way it is going Because I know the average person is not getting a fair deal and because I know the game is rigged. The Republicans have spend years and millions slowly turning my country into a servant society for the very rich. This must stop Warren in 2020

  176. @sjs In other words, you are already rich and converted your income into equity investments. So, higher taxes on income won't hurt you. Thanks for pulling up the ladder once you made it to the top!

  177. @James Don't read what isn't there. I am not rich (although I don't have any money worries because I frugal) and no, I have not converted my income into equity investments (although I do have a nice portfolio built up over 30 years). I'm still going to work and getting a paycheck. And yes, the actions taken by trump did hurt me. But most importantly, I doubt you read past the first sentence (or did you make it to the second?). If you had read the entire comment, you would know that I am very concerned that America no longer rewards hard work and playing field is long past level. As I said, things can not go on the way things have been going. Vote Warren and give people a fair chance again.

  178. He wants to help his fellow Americans, not the super rich. If you bring in ten million a year you can afford a marginal tax that would be lower than the tax Eisenhower imposed. If you stand to inherit $3.5 million, you can afford a estate tax. If you are going to inherit $1 billion, you can afford to be taxed—and you will still be filthy rich.

  179. Democrats should, nonetheless, organize and vote as if the word "Republican" in the headline of this op-ed was actually "Democratic". This election, and all subsequent elections.

  180. Don't allow yourself to get complacent; the Guns and Oil Party have baked-in advantages in their favor: Disproportionately high Senate power for trump supporting states, Electoral College, their own "news" network (Faux News), the ENTIRE AM radio band, a growing lack of civics education among poor whites (resulting in no understanding on the role of government), a large group of billionaires eager to get even greater amounts of wealth, The Koch Brothers octopus, a complete and utter zeal for lying, cheating, voter suppression, and, finally, Uncle Valdamort Putin, who knows what trump is doing to our country, and gleefully offers his significant support. Better to get all of your friends and children to register Democratic, and get their friends to vote as well. We have only one more chance to defeat the evil that the GOP represents; if we blow it, we will nd lose our democracy, aautomatically revert to a dictatorship overnight in November 2020.

  181. Can a party so well financed possibly be doomed?

  182. Nonsense: Trump shot the dice because he was getting too old to wait. The Democrats lost the election by being absurdly overconfident. The presidency of Obama convinced too many that it was a "woman's time" and that the NY Times -poll was evidence enough for them,(see Dewey v Truman,'48) Even Mr Trump gave up active campaigning in the last month because he was convinced that he was losing . He won only because Democrats-so absolutely positive they could not lose, decided to punish Clinton for not being far left or liberal enough, and voted for third party candidates. Had the voters who decided to punish Hillary , voted for her, instead, she would have won the election. Trump didn't "know" anything that anyone else didn't also know. His election was a miscalculation that Democrats often make and that Republicans also made in 1992, electing Bill CLinton. The difference is the GOP's learned not to do that, again. Many who often vote for Democrats become so convinced of their godliness, sure they only know the way , that they repeatedly throw elections in the trash, declaring they ought to have won-and will win next time-and then lose out of arrogance, again. Democrats of the "left" are the X-mas present the GOP always wishes for.

  183. @meloop We aren't punishing Hillary. We we abandoned by a Democratic Party that told us we should compromise with the Right instead of following or own values. How did Democrats think that insulting Bennie supporters would win them the election? Bernie is more of a "real Democrat" than Hillary will ever be. Compare the policies to FDR. If you do the same thing again, Trump will win again. It was necessary to get rid of Hillary. Now it is necessary to get rid of Trump.

  184. @meloop Doesn't explain Nixon, Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2 and the LONG line of rightwing extremist maniacs we have had elected here. It is far more plausible to consider Obama the aberration.

  185. Trump is fracturing the people apart, but so are the Democratic candidates contributing to the divisiveness with proposals that are not considered in terms of building support for them but to excite specific constituencies, while ignoring the challenges that they obviously present to everyone, else. We are in for a nasty and divisive 2020 general election campaign, and it's not clear that Trump will not be re-elected as a result. It's also not clear that either the Republicans or Democrats will endure or not into the future. Neither seems to want to deal with reality by bringing together a consensus of the citizenry of the country. Both seem to think that electoral victory entitles them to dictate to others how they should live.

  186. The author writes, hopefully, that "American voters will not disappoint us again." News flash: American voters did not "disappoint us" in 2016 or in 2000. The electoral college did, as it overturned the will of the majority of Americans and put clearly inferior candidates (to put it politely) into power. Anywhere else, such a system might be called corrupt. In the United States, it's called democracy. Go figure.

  187. I thought I was suffering from severe Deja vu. But no, I was simply remembering the 2002 book by a couple other Democratic party hacks called "The Emerging Democratic Majority." It made, essentially, the same points, give or take a dire reference to "the Climate Crisis" or "Black Lives Matter." Turns out, Americans aren't ready for a 16 trillion dollar Green New Deal, or to pay for a trillion dollar default on student loans, or to erase the southern border and allow unrestrained illegal immigration -- with the accompanying taxpayer bills for health care, education and food stamps, or to pony up a trillion dollars to pay for reparations, or several other far-left initiatives. Moderate Americans would gladly sound the death knell for both of the extremist parties that hold us hostage, if only a champion would emerge to relieve us from the excesses of the far right and the far left.

  188. @Philboyd None of those things were pushed by Kerry, Clinton, or Obama. Key, Clinton, and Obama protected the status quo and all paid dearly for it. Obama ran to the left and won, but governed from the center and got nothing done. When the Delights Party moved right, it only helped Republicans. Left to win hearts and minds, and the election and legislation.

  189. @Philboyd Fact Check; there is an election today in N Carolina that Republicans should win easily; no sweat; no work. This district has elected Republicans for 55 years. GOP spent $5 million and flew Trump in last night to "help" their man. GOP is worried; very worried. They should be.

  190. Oh well, Trump was still worth it based on the Supreme Court candidates he was able to advance. And we will likely get another appointment before the 2020 election.

  191. Worth it? Really? He has lowered the standards of truth and integrity that have been associated with that office, and rendered commitments made by any US President dubious. He has thrust us into more debt, and we now see the rate of people without health insurance going up for the first time since the ACA was enacted.

  192. @Mark Marks Yeah, but the alternative was Hilary Clinton. Trump has governed like any traditional republican, lower taxes and less regulation. The trade war with China had to happen, and Trump has actually done more to reduce our entanglements in foreign wars. Agree on the lowering the standards of the office, which is why I didn't vote in 2016 (that, plus Illinois was already decided).

  193. The Republican part will not disappear, but it is indeed becoming something different from what it was. I think that's what all these republican retirements tell us. The GOP was in my lifetime the party of low or no taxes, free trade, no regulation, and government is at best a necessary evil. They were also the party of Christianity and social conservatism. The latter has little changed, but the former is changing markedly. Many look at how Trump has governed and think him a typical Republican, beefing up the military budget and lowering taxes, even when not needed. But that isn't how he campaigned and that isn't what made him popular. He campaigned saying that he, as head of the government, would fix people's problems. He would get them better, cheaper healthcare. He would make sure they had jobs. He would take on our trade imbalance and get manufacturing going again in the U.S. None of that jives with the old GOP.