The Republican Party Is Doomed

This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?

Comments: 184

  1. Greenburg needs to accept that polls are just less useful than in the past.

  2. These numbers may not lie, but the Republicans do, and they cheat too, which is why no one should take Mr Greenberg's confident prediction at face value. Although the Obama and Clinton approach may not have been radical enough to bring about the change that the country really wants, the true impediments to change have come from voter suppression, gerrymandering, and misinformation, all courtesy of the GOP and its media allies. Remember, this is the party which exists in order to prevent action on climate change, health care and gun control. They are, in fact, the party of pollution, addiction, and death by carnage. Does anyone actually believe that they'll ever let a fair democratic process stand in their way?

  3. @Bob Chisholm Giving up your values before negotiations start and without getting anything in return is not compromise, but surrender. Surrender is a losing strategy by definition. You don't get control of the Senate by predicting you won't be able to do anything because you don't control the Senate. You get control of the Senate by explaining what you would do with 60 votes in the Senate. Centrist Democrats keep helping Republicans cut taxes on the rich by claiming "there is no money" for the government to help worries afford their families. Let Republicans tell them three is no money. The job of Democrats is to raise taxes on the mega rich to invest in We the People, just as it says in the Constitution (Article I and Preamble). Your values are your power, not a liability. Centrist Democrats keep demanding that We sacrifice our values to win elections, then complain that their base didn't come out to win the election. Compromise is the last thing that happens in a successful negotiation, and you stop trading things away once you reach your values. Essentially, your values are the things you refuse to trade away. If you denounce your values to get elected, you can't get elected, and even if you did, you would have no mandate to enact your values. Obama ran to the left of Hillary and won, then governed to the Right and lost to Mitch McConnell. Corporate Mass Media likes its tax cuts. Stop believing them when they say you must help Republicans to win.

  4. Personally I get suspicious when a commentator disguises his personal opinions as predictions for the future. Reminds me of Harold Bloom, the literary critic who proclaimed in 1997 that Harry Potter would be forgotten in 10 years. More than a decade ago commentators said that minority groups would be able to dominate the country in the future due to their demographic advantage. Hasn't happened yet. The "prediction" turned out to be the result of wishful thinking and an undercount of the white population of the US ( people of mixed ancestry were classified as nonwhite). Democrats need to work to get rid of Republican corruption, not to depend on prophecy.

  5. @Charlesbalpha I'd love to see a citation for the claim about Bloom. He certainly thought Harry Potter of no literary value, but I can't imagine he made any prediction about its continuing popular appeal. Are you confusing the two?

  6. @Charlesbalpha - who is Harry Potter?

  7. The downfall of the Republican Party of today (which already destroyed the Republican Party of my parents, the GOP of Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Eisenhower, or even Reagan) is one that this gay Democrat from a big city will surely welcome. But Democrats will need to cobble a new 'New Deal' that seriously tackles issues that are affecting not only my city's neighbors but also people from rural areas as well. I grew up in a small New England town that had several dairy farms and farms that grew vegetables. While we city people are angry by Trump's treatment of immigrants and his flaccid view of gun control laws, farmers are not happy with Trump's trade wars that destroying their business lives. And there is the opioid crisis that is also destroying lives in the countryside. Hence the need for a new New Deal. If a Democratic candidate has political smarts, he or she will talk about a new New Deal, which will be welcome by voters in both the city and countryside. It will be a real deal, not a fake deal promoted by Trump and his cohorts. Greenberg's timely thesis rests on such a deal.

  8. @Thomas Alton Don't get your hopes up too much. After the almost complete wipe out of the Republican Party in the 1936 election it was thought that the conservative Republicans who had ruled the party since Theodore Roosevelt had left the presidency were done and the party would move closer to the progressive Dems. Sure didn't happen that way.

  9. @Thomas Alton I agree that the ideal candidate needs to appeal to voters in both the city and countryside and should offer a "real deal" that helps the working class. I would add that the ideal candidate should also understand what drove some voters away from the Democratic party in 2016, leading them to look to Trump for hope. Of all the candidates remaining in the field, Andrew Yang seems to be the one who gets it and has answers to the coming disruptions brought on by the inevitable automation of jobs. Also judging by what I have seen in the comments section for each one of his clips I have watched on YouTube, he is capable of peeling away both Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters, and that is quite a unique capability.

  10. @Thomas Alton... Forgive me for pointing this out, but the opiod crisis is not a far onto the radar in Peoria's of the nation as everyone in the press is trying to contend. Yes, there is a problem, and yes, it has serious impact on those who are addicted and their families. I live in an area that has about 340,000 residents. There is a hard-core problem of drugs in the anchor city, and sub-rosa problems in surrounding towns. In the summer, when t he population doubles, walking down the streets of the "fashionable" town one is assaulted by the obvious smell of the smoked version of drugs, and are constantly passing the glassy-eyed and shuffling. It is important that the accessibility of recreational drugs of any type are limited to reduce the chances of the general population having to deal with the risks of the stoned on the highways and sidewalks, but, please, concentrate the efforts on where the problems actually exist and leave the rest of us alone.

  11. No time to cogently address your thoughts this morning, Mr. Greenberg. My hobby-biz will take me into a town on the other side of the mountain today; absolutely necessary to supplement my anemic social security. It is wise to remember that for millions of Americans, the need to rise at the sound of the alarm clock will place them in a situation where deliberation on anything other than pressing familial & economic concerns will be dismissed..and then there's television in the evening for most, taking them to another mental place where political deliberation is thwarted. For these people Green New Deals & environmentalism are bugaboos & threatening. Gottta go.

  12. @Apple Jack What's the matter, you depended on social security to support your retirement, or did Bush and his deregulations rob your 401K plan?

  13. I appreciate the optimism. Having said that, two things need to be considered. First, while I agree that the GOP is eventually going to be toast, predicting when this will happen is a fool's errand. The ideology that drives political parties (especially one completely at odds with reality) runs deep. Secondly, don't discount the cognitive dissonance of moderate Republicans. While many may indeed hate Trump, they simply tune out what that cannot bare to hear. There is still plenty of anti-government sentiment among these types. Just as the numbers may have improved in the Democrats' favor in the short time since 2018, these numbers could easily go back to where they were come 2020, if the Democrats ring the progressive bell too loudly. These "moderate" types will cherry pick what arguments to hear, and will choose to prioritize long-held beliefs that appeal to their fear of "socialism" and "handouts", if those become the calling cards of the left. People have short memories when it comes to current events, but don't give up ideological thinking easily.

  14. @Jason Vanrell Absolutely! Think of the majority of white women who - barely a month after the "grab them by" tape - pulled down DJT's lever. Next - and I know it IS elitist-sounding - while you and I may view Trump's every action as SELF-SERVING and - at most - serving the top 5% in terms of wealth, poorly educated, gun-toting Americans by the millions think Trump muscled through a genuine tax cut. AND they think that his enemies - people of color, the press, immigrants, etc. [a long list, to be sure] really ARE "their enemies." You and I may view the INCREASING gulf between rich and poor as part of Trump's legacy ... and one which should galvinize the bottom 3/5 of our nation (financially.) (They've all LOST GROUND since 2016, and the millions that still have subsidized health insurance do so "by a hair!") But, just as in 2016, many of those people are mad as hell and determined to support a man who channels their anger. EVEN IF that person has absolutely, positively NOTHING else in common with them ... and has demonstrated his I-don't-care-about-youse almost every day for the last 3 years!

  15. Historical/technical note: that Obama was the first president in a long time to have a smaller margin of victory the 2nd time is less notable than it might seem, because: 1) some presidents actually lost their reelection bid (e.g., George H.W. Bush, Carter, Hoover, Taft; and 2) In his first election, Obama faced neither an incumbent nor a substantial 3rd-party candidate--which one can't say of George W. Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon or FDR. Although the Tea Party, the bailouts, the economy and the ACA undoubtedly cut Obama's 2012 margin of victory, the drop had much to do with his lack of challengers the first time around, and was not symptomatic of anything in and of itself.

  16. It seems the GOP has been ripe to become nothing more than a Southern regional 3rd party for about thirty years now, with the Democratic party splitting in two between the progressive/liberal wing and the centrist wing. That has yet to happen. Greenberg nailed the 2018 midterms so I respect his opinion but I still think we have a lot of work cut out for us to create this progressive fast lane.

  17. Warren is proposing a JFK like economic hope and expansion. Trickle up. Rich people, many of whom are major societal contributors, will still be rich and have access to abundant capital. I believe Warren is proposing capitalism-for-all. Capital and government should both work hand-in-hand together. Trickle up economics.

  18. This article emphasizes economics but two issues that are very important to democrats are saving democracy from being destroyed by Trump and his white nationalist base and taking strong action finally to address a climate emergency. Younger people are particularity motivated by the climate change issue because they expect to be living in a catastrophic world decades from now if action is not taken now. And Democrats of all ages are worried about the US moving toward something that resembles fascism under Trump. Voters going to the polls are going to have to decide whether or not democracy matter them and whether the US having a decent long-term future beyond a few more decades matter to them.

  19. @Bob I hope you are correct, I suspect you are. Climate change should be the number 1 issue for every politician. There is no longer any doubt that we have already emitted enough carbon to ensure that our climate will become more chaotic and damaging going forward. However, we could stop making it worse. Unless we address climate change, none of our other policies and politics will matter in a few decades.

  20. @Bob Fascism? White nationalist base? How can you say such things in seriousness? White nationalists are a miniscule minority in this country. Those guys marching in Charlottesville - that was pretty much all of them. It's considered so unacceptable to express even the slightest hint of racism in public discourse today that people can get banned from Twitter and YouTube or lose their careers just for making a joke. White nationalists have zero credibility in our society. And Trump is simply nothing like a fascist, he wants our troops out of the Middle East, he wants less government, not stormtroopers coming to take you away. He lies a lot and he's corrupt, sure, but that doesn't make him Hitler by any stretch of the imagination.

  21. With one warning, catastrophic: If the GOP keeps the senate, the Supreme Court will return America to the 19th century. Social Security, Medicare, even a woman's right to vote will be in jeopardy.

  22. Mr. Greenberg I am one those folks hurt by the economic crisis of ‘08-‘09. “Shattered” is not quite the word I would use but it certainly “changed” my understanding of my world. I first felt demoralized as a business owner when I could no longer offer health care to employees. That happened right before this century. I thought at the time something will happen - a program, maybe. Certainly something to lower costs for small business owners. Then prior to the economic crisis it looked like I was not going to be able to afford healthcare for my family, much less employees. Then ACA was passed and we still have a Bronze healthcare plan but there is no metal lower than that, so I hope the costs stay low. Before ‘08 I had money in retirement. Retirement is now a dream. All our money goes to pay taxes, pay down the debt we took on to save our business and our house, and pay for healthcare. I like the progressive proposals in your article but would feel better if they were grass roots movements rather than government programs. Most of the things you discussed boil down to a big labor movement. The common denominator among the races is an economic one. Race, city, rural - compare the economic hardships and the country would come together. The Republicans have done a good job alienating us by race and elites or city dwellers. The Democrats should use the economics to show us how we’re all much more the same rather than different.

  23. @Sheela Todd Thank you for this important comment and insight, especially about the common denominator and the need for a unified message around that.

  24. Polls. How'd that work out for you in '16. Want to beat Trump ? Come up with a better candidate. Clinton wasn't it. This time don't forget. You have to win the EC. That HAS to be your strategy. There are a lot of people out there who may not particularly like Trump's rhetoric. But they like the 'Green New Deal' a whole lot less. They don't want to hear about 'racism'. Don't want to hear about 'climate change'. Lose those folks and you've handed the '20 election to Trump on a silver platter.

  25. @sheikyerbouti You might be surprised how many people are exhausted by people like Trump, even the previous Trump supporters. They are done. So much so that they crave a positive outlook, need one, are interested in bright ideas, do want to heal the country of racism and see a leader who feels the same way, do want to hear practical and optimistic plans to tackle climate change and give their grandchildren and safe planet. If You are one of these people, please vote for the candidate that understands you are absolutely finished with anyone who uses fear, division and pessimism as their manipulation tool.

  26. Stanley, where I live, Trump and the GOP are alive and well. You can't be elected in the region if you are a Democrat - just will not happen. I think that the GOP is not in any jeopardy in the rural areas of this country and that's a lot of space. Just saying that what is true in NYC and Boston or CA does not mean it is true for the rest of the country.

  27. @Sarah99 Might be true though in Reno, and Boulder, and even parts of Texas.

  28. Simple. If the Democrats insist on replacing private health care - rather than augmenting/improving Obamacare - with universal Medicare, we will lose. If they decriminalize otherwise illegal border crossings - we will lose. How many people from"around the world" will they allow otherwise illegal entry into our country? One-million, two-million...... ? Compassionate, moderation of our immigration laws/policies is the answer - not a "free for all." Unless that is, we want to snatch election-defeat from the jaws of Democratic victory.

  29. @logic I don't believe for a minute that decriminalizing border crossings will lead to mass immigration. It should and hopefully will be part of a broader immigration reform package which will manage immigration, provide a path to citizenship for the millions of undocumented immigrants living in this country, and provide border security with technology not walls.

  30. I work with Millennials and Gen-Xrs every day. Even if the ageing red state Boomers were to give Trump a second term via the Electoral College, I think that will represent the last dying breath of the GOP. These "kids" don't listen to Limbaugh or the other right-wing shouters, they don't watch Fox News or any network TV, but they want and need higher pay, more job security, more affordable health care, less expensive higher ed and better terms on higher ed loans, they don't go to church but care about each other...and the environment. In short, there's no question in my mind that the "values" of the "conservative" Boomers are going to be kicked into the dustbin of history in the very near future no matter the outcome of the Presidential election of 2020.

  31. @Cowboy Marine Cowboy, good points! However, I'm an original Boomer who lives in a red state, yet I voted twice for Obama and am 100% against Trump and his divisive, hate-filled rhetoric. And while it's true that we are "headed for the dustbin of history" (along with the WW-II "Greatest Generation), I know that I'm not alone in my age group in feeling this way. Americans--young and old--CAN make a change in 2020.

  32. @Cowboy Marine you do realize that those millennials will get older and many/most will naturally gravitate to a more conservative mindset just as the boomers did.

  33. The Baby Boomers were the last idealistic Americans to be born in this country, people who believed that everyone could live well and enjoy liberty and equality before the law. That people could work together without being totalitarian drones. That all began to go South when the economy went South, and never came back.

  34. It may be a minor point, but this article is too kind to Republicans. The shutdown of the government after 2010 was not ideological. They understood the need for stimulus perfectly and did everything possible to prevent it. No Democratic President would ever deliver the Koch tax cuts, so it was scorched earth to produce dissatisfaction for the 2016 election. It's common enough for parties to disagree on how to govern. It's not common to deliberately govern against the country.

  35. @Jerrryg If you did not benefit from the tax cut you either make tons of money or live in a high-SALT blue city.

  36. Maybe. However, you need to remember that the Democrats overplayed their hand so many times, and have proven so remarkably adept at shooting themselves in the foot that the kind of transformative change you think is coming may not be coming so fast. Hillary, don't forget, was the presumptive candidate in 2008 until an unknown freshman senator from Illinois came from nowhere and beat her AMONG DEMOCRATS. The same thing almost happened in 2016: Bernie almost beat her and may well have succeeded had not the DNC had its finger on the scale for her. Regardless of your thesis and your polls, a candidate with whom people are comfortable IS important. Grand ideas are less compelling than the perceived temperament of the nominee. Democrats will nominate a shrill, wildly ambitious and divisive candidate at their (and our) peril. Running for president is NOT about great ideas, but about service. It will most likely be he or she who demonstrates interest in voters' concerns, rather than inflated and grandiose programmatic proposals, who prevails.

  37. The Republican Party has not been the "party of Lincoln" in at least 50 years. The GOP was the progressive force in America during the latter 19th century. Among other things, they used the power of the federal government to force the South to end slavery and permit black men the vote. They were the dominant institution promoting civil rights. Can you even imagine the GOP promoting African American voting rights these days? In fact, they have replaced the old conservative Democrats in a stealth campaign to deny African Americans the right to vote. If Theodore Roosevelt were alive today, he would be a Democrat.

  38. @Ladyrantsalot ...and Abraham Lincoln.

  39. Certainly, both demographic trends and Trump's and the Republican Party's weaknesses provide a basis for hope. But the Democrats next year will be running not only against Trump, but in effect against voter suppression efforts in many states, Russian and perhaps other foreign efforts to manipulate matters, state voting systems that (thanks partly to Mitch McConnell) remain subject to potential hacking and other abuses, and Trump-appointed federal and Supreme Court jurists who may do little to reign in any of these problems. Plus, Trump will do his execrable worst to divert attention away from policy solutions and toward racism, nativism, sexism and exploitation of his opponent's actual and alleged flaws. Finally, given the above challenges and the structural advantages Republicans have in the electoral college, the election could still come down to key districts in key states. I'd feel a lot better about Greenberg's very optimistic analysis if he translated it into state-by-state results that in turn point toward the transformational Democratic victory he predicts.

  40. Am I the only one who thinks that the Preamble to the Constitution is the proper scorecard for the performance of our government? It never seems to get mentioned by the big shots, probably because few would want to own up to the results of an honest report on our achievement of its six objectives: >form a more perfect Union, >establish Justice, >insure domestic Tranquility, >provide for the common defence, >promote the general Welfare, >and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity. When did we last dare to be that honest? But there are inklings that time is coming. Pray God, for the sake of our children, let it be now!

  41. Observations about the current state of our politics and the current campaign tend to be overblown, alarmist, and repetitious about the events of the past three years. Calmer analysis and less repetition would be appreciated.

  42. @William The ignorance, racism, fraud, and lies continue every day. Reporting the news will remain the same as long as the story remains the same. I know that is not appreciated by those who support same.

  43. Just a quick note: 45% of the US population support Trump. Republicans support Trump at the rate of near 90%. The Republican Party is doomed you say? On the contrary, they are here to stay. The question is: how do you govern when a significant segment of the population believes the lies they are told by the Republican Party on climate, race, education, war and peace, infrastructure spending, college loans, health care, student indebtedness, vaccinations, the Russian threat, non-taxes for wealthy campaign contributors, the weather, endangered species, and oh, unless I forget, the crimes committed by the President?

  44. @Robert G. McKee And how large, now, is the remaining Republican/Trump Party - that 90% of its members support Trump?

  45. @Robert G. McKee "The Republican Party is doomed you say? On the contrary, they are here to stay." Even after they've been voted out of power?

  46. @KEF How large are they? About 45 % of the voting public.

  47. But first they need a candidate everyone can actually rally around, and a specific, detailed platform with a realistic plan to fund it, that nearly everyone will support. The paying for it part is the tricky part. I don't think focusing on immigration or other controversial social issues is a great strategy. The Democrats are at their strongest when they focus on pocket book issues like wages and health care.

  48. This analysis provides a foundation from which we can better understand the polling which continues to suggest Trump and Republicans are deeply out of touch with the majority of Americans. Today's polling showing a further erosion in Trump's support simply confirms what Mr. Greenberg is projecting over the long-term for Republicans.

  49. As I read this hopeful and extremely illuminating article, I can look out my window and see my American flag hanging outside my house. I am not a religious man, but every day I offer a prayer that the day will return when instead of using it as a pretty piece of decoration it will once again stand to represent a country that I am proud of. I left the republican party last year after 38 years of voting straight R's almost every election. The only way to bring this country back to what it was and should be is to end the republican party as it now stands. Everyday brings a new outrage from 45 and a scandal that would end most presidencies. Under our system of government the only thing I can do is vote to change it. So right now I am biding my time, waiting for next November as I waited for last November; To vote and do my piece to make me proud to hang my flag again.

  50. @KEM I haven’t flown my flag since the clown in chief was”elected “ if I was a few years younger it would be flying but upside down.

  51. @KEM Under Our system of governance, We the People have far greater responsibilities than voting. We the People are the official authority behind the Constitution and the law. We are responsible for keeping track of what our government does, communicating with each other about what is happening and how We can make our Union more perfect, and hold public servants accountable to Our Will. Your comment is a fine example of a citizen fulfilling their responsibilities. And there other things that can be done between elections. Not only corporate lobbyists are allowed to seek redress asked policies from Our Government. The Constitution protects our right to peacefully assemble because protest is an effective means of educating the public and pressuring politicians. Mass Media has been almost completely bought by billionaires directly or through controlling shares, and while mass media calls itself "liberal," it actually keeps demanding that the Left gives up our values (which are aligned with the Constitution) to compromise with a Party that espouses hate, greed, and violence. It is not an accident that corporate media (which also received massive tax cuts from Trump) pretends that aggregate statistics weighted by billionaires wealth measure the well-being of workers who are losing ground. We must use creativity to force the media to discuss the real problems of real people. We the People must take time to manage or public servants every week, or criminals will steal the USA.

  52. @KEM - as a Maine voter you also have a unique chance to achieve these goals by voting Democratic in your state’s US Senate race. That vote is equally important ... jus’ sayin.

  53. I am ready for a "bold era of reform". In fact, I am past ready, I am hungry for it. May this column prove to be prophetic. I can no longer tolerate living in a county in which evangelicals the Tea Party and Catholics blindly provide votes while dark money, corporations and the extremely wealthy provide policy and the majority fo secular, rational middle class people suffer and pay and pay and suffer. I want to live in a democracy that appreciates the self-evident truths we as Americans hold so dear to our hearts. I am ready, I am hungry.

  54. @JW There will be no era of reform without first a reform of the judiciary, especially the Supreme Court which the right has established as a backstop against all reform. And reforming the judiciary, if the Democrats ever regain power and have the stomach to do what is necessary, must be backstopped with an immediate reform of the electoral process to guarantee that a reactionary minority never again gains the power they have today. Ultimately, the Senate must be changed to a representative legislative body, not a supercharged power base for Wyoming and other conservative small-state voters.

  55. @Pete "Ultimately, the Senate must be changed to a representative legislative body, not a supercharged power base for Wyoming and other conservative small-state voters" The Constitution allows for the House to represent populations and the Senate to represent states. This allows for the populous states to have more power in one body while still being recognized equally as a state in another. This seems more than reasonable to me and I also live in a populated state. Of course, if you think an Amendment would pass containing what you wish, good luck. I'm not a gambler, but I'd bet the farm on that predictable outcome.

  56. It’s a simple message. The Republicans are the party of obstruction, destruction and division. They have broken the government in order to serve a small group of the wealthy elite. Because of this the quality of life for ordinary Americans has gotten worse for decades. We need to help ordinary Americans build prosperous, healthy lives. We need to fix a government that can no longer act the interest of all Americans. That is what Democrats are here to do.

  57. I live in a GOP controlled state. Our legislature, like those in many red states, has done its best to suppress the votes of those who will likely vote for Democratic Party candidates. Voting hours for early voting have been significantly reduced, New voter ID requirements have been imposed that can prove difficult for those who do not have a drivers license. Moreover, if you lack a birth certificate or a state issued ID, you will need to get a copy of your birth certificate which costs $24 and takes 6-8 weeks. Many poor people will likely think voting is not worth this modern day poll tax of $24. Then once you have your birth certificate you can spend several hours at the DMV trying to get your state issued voter ID issued there. Folks, voter suppression is alive and well in old Dixie. For that reason the data reported on on voting day will always lag behind what polls report. To sweep Trump and the GOP from power, we will need a landslide.

  58. @Bill If voter suppression means having to show an ID then all first world countries have voter suppression. Canada, Australia, Germany ALL OF SCANDINAVIA! Wow! Racist countries all of them by forcing people to prove citizenship aye?

  59. I wish I could be as sanguine as Mr. Greenberg. But the animating vision of The Times's 1619 Project is that antiblack racism is intrinsic to American life. Reagan's, the Bushes', and now Trump's political careers are inconceivable without it. Its irrationality made a mockery of every 2016 election model. And for each supporter hollering out his racism at Trump's Three Hour Hates, how many more stay home, declining publicly to wear the bigot's red cap but determined to vote that way in November 2020? I can only be pleasantly surprised, and hope to be next year. But when it comes to race, I learned a long time ago -- Election Nights 1980 and 1984, to be exact -- not ever to put my faith in the American electorate.

  60. Party of Lincoln is such a funny misnomer. The GOP hasn't been the party of Lincoln since the 19th century -- that's not just one, it's two centuries ago. Party of McCarthy, party of Bob Jones, party of Robert Welch, party of Mitch McConnell, party of Trump -- any of these would suffice, but not Lincoln. Lincoln wouldn't recognize these people at all.

  61. I agree with @Been there, the Republicans have perfected the art of lying and cheating their way to power through voter suppression, rampant gerrymandering, and the Electoral College. Unless Democrats gain a majority in the Senate and/or take the Presidency, you can bet on the minority part keeping control. A primary goal for Democrats is removal of the Electoral College unless they want smaller, less populated States to continue to lead our country around by the nose.

  62. We forget that during the Obama administration, Republicans blocked and delayed nearly every attempt at Democratic legislation. Great ideas stalled, Republican legislators pulled out all the stops to try and prevent what might make Democrats popular. Of course better stragey to defeat their blocking would have been good, but it wasn't for lack of trying. The R's must be held to account for everything they blocked, and everything they are now ruining.

  63. @lh And Democrats block every Republican idea. What’s the difference? Or are Democrats just superior beings?

  64. @Shamrock Clearly it's the latter. Democrats offer real solutions to real problems. Republican conservatism is an ideology that is based in emotion and not fact. It's completely reactionary so there are no historical examples of it succeeding, ever, anywhere.

  65. A pollster predicting the future. I hope you are right Mr. Greenberg.

  66. @John Yes. Just like I only want a stock analyst that makes predictions that become reality. I try to stay away from people who make predictions that don’t become reality. I would like to see Mr. Greenberg’s record on predictions. How do I know he does better than my 5 year old granddaughter?

  67. This essay presents a useful analysis based on national polling data and favorable trends. Unfortunately, all of our elections are fought at the state and district levels. Advocacy and dark money groups are well aware of how to win locally and cobble together working majorities or obstructive minorities. They’ve also used the last decade to stack state and federal courts with right wing robots as a backstop supporting conservative goals. Republican operatives will narrowcast their messages and disinformation based on detailed, voter-by-voter information. And they have gobs of money to spend and a cadre of propagandists in right wing media to dutifully amplify there messaging. I guarantee they’re busily looking for opposition research and electoral fault lines to exploit. And if all else fails, they’ve left many of our state electoral systems highly vulnerable to hacking. Democratic presidential candidates have won the popular vote in five of the last six elections, but we still ended up with Bush junior and Trump, probably our two worst presidents. The electoral college is slanted towards smaller and rural states, and gerrymandering has stacked House elections for a decade. Voter suppression and even voter fraud (see NC’s special election today) too often blunt the Democratic Party’s numerical advantage. So I’m not so sanguine about 2020. 2018 was a great harbinger, but past results are no guaranteed of future performance.

  68. @Michael Tyndall My conservative, Trump supporting mother was admitted to a skilled nursing facility last April. She still maintains her home for now and one of my jobs is to collect her mail. Despite not responding, she still receives over one hundred pieces of mail per month from right wing advocacy groups and the Republican Party and its surrogates. Trump, Gingrich, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter (?!?!?), et al. The message of all this garbage is uniformly crafted to terrify seniors and of course shill for money. Think of it. The right wing kleptocracy advocacy block has such deep pockets that it continues to lavish thousands of dollars in collateral and postage on a single, essentially broke, old woman without receiving a single response.

  69. @Michael Tyndall My conservative, Trump supporting mother was admitted to a skilled nursing facility last April. She still maintains her home for now and one of my jobs is to collect her mail. Despite not responding, she still receives over one hundred pieces of mail per month from right wing advocacy groups and the Republican Party and its surrogates. Trump, Gingrich, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter (?!?!?), et al. The message of all this garbage is uniformly crafted to terrify seniors and of course shill for money. Think of it. The right wing kleptocracy advocacy block has such deep pockets that it continues to lavish thousands of dollars in collateral and postage on a single, essentially broke, old woman without receiving a single response.

  70. Did Mr. Greenberg predict the Democrat losses while Obama was in office? Did he predict Hillary losing? If not, why would anyone hire him to make predictions? Anyone can make predictions, the important thing is to make predictions that become reality otherwise you are just like the person who takes rental car reservations but doesn’t hold the car. Holding the car is the most important part of the reservation.

  71. @Shamrock The greater theme to examine would be these polling numbers he presents. It is a well known fallacy in polling that people will gravitate towards giving pollsters the answers they believe they want to hear. The constant drumbeat in the media that an aversion to more immigration is pure prejudice still carries the day.

  72. To these excellent points, I would add a potential constituency: small business. According to, "the number of companies less than a year old had declined as a share of all businesses by nearly 44 percent between 1978 and 2012." Subservience by both of the major political party establishments to big corporations and big money is harming American entrepreneurship.

  73. For the first time I am working at my local polling place, I am pulling the straight blue lever and I am using all my free time to register voters. 2020 is all about turnout. We cannot be outraged here and do nothing in our home towns. We all need to do something to improve turnout. What will you do?

  74. @Deirdre, thanks for your efforts! What am I doing? The same things I did when I realized back in 2008 what GW Bush did to our country (yet seems so minimal now): - Work at campaign offices doing canvassing, voter registration, or making phone calls - Donating small monthly amounts to any Democrat running against a Greed Over People party Senator I'm a baby boomer who goes to local Democratic meetings and campaign offices and sees 60-70% of the attendees having white or grey hair. We want to pass the baton, but need younger people (any age group under 60 years of age) to step up. Thanks Deirdre for doing your part! Don't let it be the last time you work on campaigns. It is up to citizens to recognize that We the People may mean more than voting to undo the Citizens United damage to our democracy.

  75. @Deirdre I am headed to Wisconsin in the Spring for a month of voter registration.

  76. @Deirdre Been doing what you're doing for 21 years. Currently volunteering on City Council campaign. Have volunteered for 8 campaigns since 2015 (Obama neighborhood organizer in 2008 and 2012). And I'm burned out! Where are the young people, and the youngER people?

  77. Logic and good reason may yet again abandon the electorate. Unfortunately, the impacts of the media and the internet on voters are huge unknown factors in the next election. The mainstream media has 2 major flaws - they will try too hard to appear fair to Trump and GOP and water down any reporting on their flaws and they will over report any minor twitch or stumble from the democratic side for the same reason. Add to that the uncontrollable spread of misinformation on the internet.

  78. @rd The fact that you think the media is too easy on Trump and GOP is proof of how out of touch you are. The fact that not every news anchor is Rachel Dowd does not mean the media is being easy on them. I implore you to find one news story from the past 3 years where the mainstream media painted any sort of Republican action in a neutral (forget positive) light.

  79. Agree on almost all - but his mistaken “slaughter from automatic weapons” was cringeworthy. Automatic weapons are largely illegal and very rarely used in America. The slaughter is from the proliferation and easy access to semi-automatic handguns, and weapons and ammunition designed for war (such as the AR-15). It’s difficult to argue with the NRA when you don’t have your facts straight - and the facts are strong enough in this argument. In so many current Republican policy directions, the facts are NOT on their side - so a critical strategy for Democrats is to push back on current Republican ideas with facts, science, proof. Let the party of reality TV, conspiracy theories, failed trickle-down experiments, war on press/facts/science/higher education own those labels all by themselves.

  80. If Greenberg is correct, nominating Biden will be a huge mistake.

  81. @Gone Coastal ... And if he's not correct, then it will be a perfectly reasonable thing to do. That's how it is, with opinions and predictions of the future: they may, or may not be correct.

  82. @Gone Coastal But if not Biden then who?

  83. @Gone Coastal - he is correct, and nominating Biden would be a misreading of Obama-then-trump voters (who wanted what Obama seemed to promise but didn't deliver) and a colossal mistake. But no worries. Elizabeth Warren is the real deal (finally!) - as we all will soon see in the early primary results. That said: VOTE BLUE - NO MATTER WHO

  84. I remember when Mr. Greenberg and other "experts" were predicting after the Republicans won the House in 1994 that the demographics were against the Dems ever regaining it. As someone once said, it's hard making predictions especially about the future.

  85. @Steve Someone is probably Yogi Berra.

  86. @Steve @Richard Frank Get out the vote!

  87. @wcdevins Wikiquote says it's misattributed to Yogi. It claims it has Danish origins. Niels Bohr said something similar. He was Danish, so perhaps he'd heard it there.

  88. Is the GOP really doomed, once again? The answer is found in the number of people who go to the polls, not in the number of people who answer them. Vote.

  89. Mr. Greenberg provides sound arguments with supporting evidence - very refreshing in this Trump era of nothing but mindless statements. I also appreciate his strategy recommendation to the Democrats and his avoidance of hate filled anti Trump rhetoric. I used to belong to a republican party, it was for free trade, fiscal responsibility and containing the deficit - but that party is gone. We need to depart from the Trump era at the earliest possible date - we need that 1776 spirit and George Washington leadership.

  90. @donnyjames today's republican party is the endpoint of your politics and you don't want to admit to it. fiscal responsibility and containing the deficit was a dogwhistle for defunding social programs that benefited minorities and the poor, free trade facilitated globalism and moved factory jobs out of this country. its interesting that folks who preach the most about personal responsibility will never take any for their own rhetoric playing out

  91. @donnyjames Washington was a slave owner and disloyal to his king during a tax revolt. Trumpets are loyal and will do anything Dirty Don says.

  92. @Concerned Citizen So, it doesn’t matter what a republican tells you he’s for, you’ve already decided it’s a “dog whistle”. Racism is to you what Socialism is to Republicans. Both terms are meaningless. Conservatives don’t like social programs for anyone! White or black, doesn’t matter but for some reason you’ve decided to put EVERY intention of a republican as being racist. Every Republican in this country would vote for Thomas Sowell if he ran. Has NOTHING TO DO WITH skin color but with ideology! Jeez! This is why Democrats miss the mark time and again. You don’t know how the other side really thinks, they’re just dumb, evil, backwoods caricatures to you.

  93. The logic of Mr. Greenberg's argument is sound, but I will believe that the Republican Party is doomed when I see it. I worry that this kind assurance breeds compliance, just as it did in the 2016 election when Hillary Clinton's presidency was "assured" in polls and opinion pieces. If people want to oust Trump, they need to actually show up and vote. That's all there is to it.

  94. Of course there are many Republicans who don't like how Trump governs, even if they like or have benefitted from some of the policies. But none of these people are big fans of progressive economic policies or progressive social policy. To decisively win, Democrats need to turn out their voters in large numbers, and get 10-15% of Republican voters from 2016 to either switch to them, vote for a third party, or stay home. So the question is whether the system that the Democrats have put together to choose their candidate will lead to the nomination of omoeone who can do these things, and get disaffected Republicans to hold their nose and vote for the Democrats. And a different point. The clickbait headline is reminiscent of the crowing 11 years ago that the Republican party was doomed in 2008, and that doom lasted....for a whole 2 years. That will repeat, in that once Trumpism is defeated dissafected Republicans will return to the party.

  95. If Democrats can stop obsessing about gender, race, and sexuality long enough to focus on these universal kitchen table issues, they can crush the 2020 election. Basically, the platform of someone like Warren or Sanders is a winner, and the divisive culture warrior attitude of Harris or (the thankfully gone) Gillibrand is a loser.

  96. Didn't virtually all the polls pick Clinton as the winner in 2016? The democratic party didn't even campaign in Michigan in 2016. Your polls are apparently flawed. Wishful thinking if you don't get out there and talk to the common man. Wishful thinking if you don't get boots on the ground in 2020.

  97. The Democrats, the conservative party of our time, fear Mr Greenberg's prognosis like the plague. Many of the comments here indicate that fear. That is why the Democrats lost so many offices at all levels of government during the Obama years. Benign neglect, refusal to build a movement, and then blame the Republicans for getting nothing done, was and still is the plan. And of course, should they exhibit the same arrogant disregard for the people that was on display in 2016 by nominating a Biden type candidate - Biden being one of the most right wing Democrats ever to run for president - then they really do deserve to lose again to the absolute worst presidential in the history of the United States.

  98. Really? Really? Trump pushed moderates out of the GOP? Every major Democratic Presidential Candidate wants Medicare for all, decriminalized boarder crossing and free healthcare for illegal aliens. Which party is expelling moderates? One. Democratic Party (which lost seats in the Senate and lost the SCOTUS for a generation or more). Thanks OBAMA!

  99. 2020 will only be transformative if democrats win and Agent Orange hair ACTUALLY concedes and respects the outcome. Recent daily episodes of abuse of power do not make me optimistic.

  100. Stanley, you assume the GOP intends to play by the rules. Don't you think that the demographic trends, the shifts in public opinion, the loss of women voters, the change in mentality with the younger generation, the inevitable loss of a white majority, etc., have been obvious to the GOP for years? They can't possibly be so stupid that they didn't see this coming. And yet instead of putting on the brakes and changing course, they doubled down and floored the accelerator pedal. Why? The answer is simple, and already obvious from their prior actions. They engage in foreign policy alone, at times working with foreign powers to undermine the lawfully elected US president (e.g., the Iran deal). They gerrymandered districts to prevent loss of seats across the country. They have engaged in severe voter repression and disenfranchisement, purging voters, implementing strict requirements, etc.. They have been packing the courts and blocking Democrat nominees. They have been filibustering everything in the Senate. They gave us debt limits, shut down the government time and again, and treated a president who was elected with a minority of votes as if he had a huge mandate. When pro-slavery Democrats realized in 1860 that they were going to lose in the long-term, they decided to secede from the USA. What will the GOP do in the modern era? Do you think they'll just give up and go along with the emerging Democrat majority? Will they respect democracy now, when they never did in the past?

  101. The Republican party has needed a remake for some time, and this may start it, but only if the majority of conservatives are able to wrest leadership from the evangelicals and racist factions. Our country has a long history of both parties making bargains with unified groups out of step with the majority. It is the Republican's turn this time. The evangelicals will still have their judges and will lose interest in politics (while they gladly enjoy healthcare benefits courtesy of the Democrats). The racists will never change but will pay their NRA dues and arm for the coming apocalypse, also losing interest in politics. As they age, and their needs are met by immigrants and a healthcare system they don't pay for, perhaps the grim reaper will slowly erode their numbers, Then, a new Republican party can be born.

  102. This wildly over-confident prediction of a Democratic victory in the 2020 presidential race as well as a fundamental realignment of American political sentiment towards an anti-nationalist left-liberalism is delusionary, a rerun of pollsters' hubris in 2016. The Democrats will likely lose on immigration alone. Among the polls Greenberg ignores at are those of Harvard's Center for American Political Studies. One finding speaks volume: a huge majority -- some 76% of Americans of all backgrounds -- wanting immigration slashed by 50%. This isn't consistent with Greenberg's heralding of the victory of multiculturalism. The DEM's midterm victory primarily registered Trump's personal unpopularity. Admittedly, the hyperbolic media babble about "concentration camps" on the borders and Gestapo ICE agents -- and the genuinely distraught reaction to the separation of the children of illegal aliens from their children -- had an impact. But the President's very smart moves over the last few months have much reduced the inflow of the illegal population. The 9th Circuit (amazing) overruled a District Court which now permits the US to detain would-be asylum seekers in Mexico rather than release them into America and the Mexican government has been strong-armed into protecting their sovereignty along with ours, etc. Americans cherish their familial history of legal immigration through Ellis Island, but they are strongly opposed to the illegal sort. Greenberg doesn't get it.

  103. The Evangelical voter has not changed their point of view. Until they are faced head on the USA will continue to be run by Republicans and folks who clearly want to witness the end of the world. Tax them. Educate them. Challenge their leaders. We have lost years now when we could have addressed climate change. Their belief in their shortsighted, corrupt leaders over valid science is affecting the lives of children and grandchildren, perhaps irreversibly.

  104. As I recall, the word was out in 2008 that the Republican Party was dead and buried after the election of Barack Obama...We were entering the long-anticipated period of post-partisan politics... And them came the passage of Obamacare and the walloping of many congressional Democrats to the point that the Democrats lost control of the House... In our republican system of democracy, the rules of the game of each race is "the winner takes all". That being so, it is the nature of elections that two parties are favored as opposed to those electoral systems that specify proportional representation. Until such time as proportional representation makes it into the constitutions of our federal and state governments. and/or a viable third party is capable of contesting one or both of the other two, our nation's political discussions will be between two parties. While the fortunes of our political parties ebb and flow over time...a good feature of any heathy form of governance, the prediction of the demise of one of our great political parties is about as foolhardy as suggesting that that cow over there will jump over the moon next Wednesday as 9:47 pm EDT. So, let's cut the hyperbole and get on with working together to solve the problems of our cities, our states, and our nation And just maybe, if we are able to work together on these levels, we might be able to reach across national borders to solve more internationally based problems. How about giving it a try?

  105. "...his America First, populist trade policies cemented the addition of a large number of observant Catholics to his coalition" What? Why on earth would you claim that "observant Catholics" would be attracted by America First, the successor to the anti-Catholic Know Nothing movement?

  106. Hillary had a 90% chance of winning two weeks before the election.

  107. "From your lips to God's ears." But, fellow readers, please: no complacency! We MUST turn out in HUGE numbers to defend democracy, justice, ordinary decency, the environment, and the lives of the 99%!

  108. Businesses are not very smart. Left to their own devices, they always crash the market that supports them. Like the scorpion on the frogs back, they simply cannot help it. It is in their nature.

  109. The downfall of the Republican Party took place when greed and money became their blatant creed - turning a blind eye on the most fundamental principles of ethics - compassion, due process, respect of human rights and fairness.

  110. Republicans have been pushing the same agenda since Reagan, and most of it never worked to the benefit of the country but only to corporations and investors who decided to profit through global rather than domestic enterprises but not ever have any candidates confronted the public with those facts. Neither have they confronted four decades of running the budgeting funding of the government off of borrowed money instead of tax revenues. In fact, I don’t think that aside from global warming much of our public discussion has dealt with hard facts. It’s been one big dumb display of melodrama which never honestly deals with any problem. The result is an endless generation of imaginary scenarios attempting to explain most social problems, few of which actually address all the facts. Taxes are too low and wealth creation domestically is low and not shared reasonably. Few people are better off than the were if they were around forty years ago. It keeps people from improving their circumstances and their dependents. If people are not affluent already they are less likely to become so. It’s resources not virtue that propels material success. This country is full of racists and misogynists and homophobes but never in history has there been less of it and more popularly challenged. The rise in reactions to these injustices is understandable, people are listening, but it goes too far, stereotyping people as open or stealthy adversaries when they are not. Our politics are poor.

  111. Look - if GOP (i.e. Trump) wins, USA is doomed and so is the rest of the world - simple, straightforward truth.

  112. Blah - blah - blah. And Hillary was to supposed to win in a landslide. I don't doubt for one minute that Trump will be re-elected. His base simply isn't budging. And I'm a Dem. Other than universal healthcare, the candidates are tripping over themselves to shoot their own foot with one extravagant offer after another. And with the exception of Warren and Bernie, no one has the same plan from day to day. Their visions change with the wind and audience. Democracy is seriously broken in the U.S. and Europe. It's only a matter of time before all so-called democracies have a strong man (or woman) in charge as de facto dictator.

  113. Stanley Greenberg's excellently penned, incisively analyzed Opinion foretelling the imminent demise of the Republican Party compellingly illustrates the continuing shift of attitude expressed by Americans that the GOP be relegated to permanent minority party status. The electorate, finally confronted with witnessing and experiencing the constant incompetency of the Vietnam War draft dodger's go it alone attitude, spoke loudly in November 2018 to strongly rebuke right wing motivated policies. The Republican Party made its Faustian bargain with the diminutive dwarf, believing that playing the race card and persistently pushing unfounded xenophobic fearmongering would save America from the alleged invasion of dark complexioned peoples. Saving jobs, preserving so called 'American family values,' and keeping people of colour 'in their place' are the hallmark indicia that attracted less than educated, blue collar working, and clueless Caucasians to the Republican party. Never mind the GOP Congress pushed through a record breaking deficit generating tax cut, which traditional Republicans - even Barry Goldwater - would decry. And ignore the fact that climate change is real because the draft dodger has expressed doubt. The Democratic Party is the future of America, multiracial, multiethnic, and multi immigrant, In this new party we shall overcome the bigotry, racism, antiimmigrant loathing, and homophobic demonization. The Republicans face oblivion due to race baiting. Race matters.

  114. Mr. Greenberg's lopsided analysis is an inducement to two habits that are typically disastrous: underestimating the opposition and complacency. I think Brad Parscale would've paid him out of his own pocket for an essay so potentially helpful to Trump.

  115. I’ve read articles about the death of the Republican Party for decades. I almost believed it before the last presidential election. Then came Reality with a vengeance.

  116. @Darkenergy Agree - he has a solid 35-40% approval rating no matter what. Some help of the Russians- and a recurrence of the “Clinton-Sanders Syndrome” of 2016 - voilà - Trump wins. The Democratic Party and its leaders are on the verge of the annihilation of the Democratic Institutions - that constitutes negligence, IMHO.

  117. I think millions of Republicans -- even Mitch McConnell -- already understand full well the disaster that Trump has turned out to be. But this will not dissuade them from continuing to support him and vote for him. They know which side of the bread has the orange marmalade on it. They know they are as guilty as he.

  118. "Of course, Mr. Obama was met by a Tea Party revolt that helped push many white working class voters away from the Democratic Party, but his administration’s rescue of the big banks, along with prolonged unemployment and lower or stagnant wages for the whole of his first term, meant that the Democratic base failed to turn out and defend him in election after election." Cool story, bro. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was authorized by Congress on October 3, 2008. Congress authorized it through the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. President Barack Obama was elected to his first term on November 4, 2008. "Alongside this, his [Trump's] America First, populist trade policies cemented the addition of a large number of observant Catholics to his coalition." The support for Trump among Catholics is overwhelmingly based on Catholic opposition to abortion. Who doesn't know this (besides you)? Why in the world would Catholics as a group be more motivated by concerns about populist trade policies than any other demographic groups in America? Baptists have a much higher percentage of families making less than $30,000 annually. Do you not understand that a large portion of the nearly 30% of Hispanics who voted for Trump did so because they're Catholics and their church opposes abortion? When you can't even report accurately when TARP was enacted or properly analyze demographics, don't expect any of your exercise in disinformation to be taken seriously.

  119. This article is choke full of valid observations, alas much of the analysis is canceled by the author's unwillingness to address the single, glaringly obvious issue on which Trump can still get re-elected, even without any improper interference. It is perfectly OK for the Democratic party to be pro-immigration. It is far less OK to be pro-ILLEGAL immigration - it is in fact suicidal politically. Over the past two years Democrats have gradually moved to the point where they are openly advocating for open borders and decrying any enforcement of the immigration laws as racist... I strongly suspect that there are many reasonable, moderate voters in the proverbial Middle America who may choose to keep Trump in office on this issue alone, even though they are perfectly aware, and do not approve of, all the outrages of this administration. The fact that the author chooses to ignore this issue completely, and in fact keeps using the word "immigration" in place of "illegal ..." or "undocumented immigration" throughout the article significantly reduces his credibility as a fair analyst.

  120. I totally agree, as I am one of those. I also, however, favor a restriction on immigration until we achieve a zero population growth rate. We have doubled our population to unsustainable numbers as far as an ecological carrying capacity in only a few decades. Why will no one discuss this?

  121. I've seen this prediction proven untrue so many times that I don't believe it anymore. I made the prediction myself after the disastrous presidency of W. Yet, like sequels to bad horror movies, they keep coming back. They outmaneuver Dems on the state and local levels. They leverage every systematic advantage possible. They use money, gerrymandering, voter purges and deceit. They win. They survive. I wish they were doomed, but I'll believe it when I see it.

  122. I get that many progressives are anti gun... so much so, that this singular issue is what keeps the Dems from gaining the political power they need to show people that government can the force for good that I believe it is... except for the constant danger of "we are coming for your guns"... so when talking about your anti gun vitriolic position, at least have the decency to get it right... these are long barrel SEMI automatic weapons... fully auto was outlawed many many years ago (not that a few aren't allowed here and there... but automatic weapons are HEAVILY regulated and haven't been used in a shooting in quite some time....)

  123. An effective Government responsive to the People is necessary to address the urgent and extraordinarily complex and existential issues we face today. Unchecked Capitalism fosters life nasty, brutish, and short. Compassionate Democracy encourages Life worth living.

  124. “American voters will not disappoint us again. Mr. Trump’s frantic efforts on immigration will not work. Taken as a whole, the voters want to affirm who we are as a country — and to marginalize a Republican Party that stands outside the mainstream on so much of our recent history, on civil rights and immigration in particular.” Donald Trump isn’t just leading a political party, he’s leading an ego cult. And to that cult he bestowed one gift: arson. There are few things as revolting as the thought of Donald Trump managing to wait out the statue of limitations, by securing that narrow electoral college victory. And still, we all know that Donald Trump will not simply relinquish power.

  125. Democrats need to stop being the party of free giveaways. Trump won because he understood the plight of the working class. To Democrats they were a basket of deplorables. Democrats need to be the party of OPPORTUNITY for ALL. FDR got It Hillary never did. Beating Trump with continued loss at the state governments will not be a true victory.

  126. isn't it pretty to think so. (hint: voter suppression and gerrymandering)

  127. If the Democrats nominated Mr. Ed, the horse, I would crawl through barbed wire and broken glass, to vote for the horse. I have a feeling that I am not alone with this view.

  128. Didn't see any discussion of how this might possibly benefit Dems in the Senate. Haven't seen any coverage of competitive Senate races where Dems can take back the majority there. Crickets. With a GOP majority in the Senate, there will be no transformation.

  129. "This is a transformational moment. Do the Democrats understand how to take advantage of it?" Let's consult the Magic 8-Ball. We ask the question, turn it over, and the little triangle appears in the window on the bottom: IT'S THEIR ELECTION TO LOSE.

  130. The test of this thesis is now on as Mark Sanford can run against tRump saying what GOP voters should be listening for.

  131. Don't be too sure. 3 million popular majority for Hillary wasn't enough to overcome the "electoral college" and voter suppression by a Republican party desperate to retain domination of the USA. America will not win back the government from billionaires without a fight. Fight!

  132. This is an interesting and astute analysis. But as Abigail Adams advised her husband, don't forget the ladies. Women also worry about the economy, the rise of anti-immigrant bigotry and its practice in separating thousands of children from their families and cruelly abusing them. Women do not approve of the forced birther movement that denies the most basic rights of bodily integrity and reproductive health decisions to the woman herself. You cannot lose a gender and have a viable future, politically or otherwise.

  133. Except, that no one person or organization can compare with the collective Democratic Party's ability to continually snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

  134. The thing that most gives me hope in the accuracy of this prediction is that California went through an ugly anti-immigrant and anti-affirmative action period in the 1990’s, as the state’s population shifted from majority white to majority people of color. California Republicans lead this divisive, destructive charge—and their party here is now thoroughly out of power. This same demographic trend is now happening nationally, and the Republicans are again leading a divisive, destructive charge. Hopefully they will be as thoroughly out of power nationally as they are in California, as a consequence. Hopefully then government and the elected officials running it can get back to the business of enacting solutions to the nation’s problems.

  135. Obama was not perfect but he did know how to behave as the leader of the Western World, which could use America’s leadership right now. He also provided optimism, hope and stability to the ship of state - one that is now constantly rattled by inane tweets and emotional outbursts that are pessimistic, angry and leave chaos in their wake. Trump has debased the GOP politically as reflected in this article, but also legally, morally, economically, financially and racially. As the party of Trump, what does the GOP plan to do for anybody else?

  136. Mr. Greenberg doesn't want you to remember this but he was Hillary's pollster. And predictably, he has a new book out that's favorable to Dems and attacks those mean Republicans. Mr. Greenberg's data doesn't really show his conclusion -- that the Republican Party is doomed. But his article will be taken as a matter of faith by the NY Times Progressives. More importantly to him: it should help sell his new book. Which is the purpose of the exercise, after all. My takeaway from this article is that, whether or not the Republican Party is doomed, by Mr. Greenberg's own assessment the Democrats apparently don't have a clue about how to actually find and select a viable presidential candidate. So, doomed party or not, it still appears that Mr. Trump, awful as he is to all right-thinking Progressives, will find a way to squeak out a victory in 2020. And then we can all look forward to Mr. Greenberg's new book that he'll write thereafter, telling us all why the Progressives were wrong, he was right, and, once again, the Republican Party is doomed.

  137. I love these “pronouncements” by pollsters. Is that really still a job by the way? Anyway - like it or not, there are tens of millions of people like me who don’t like Trump but will hold my nose and vote for him. Why? Because the left has completely jumped the shark and frankly I don’t think the system needs to be torn down. I’m sure this echo chamber of NYT commenters will call me racist, xenophobic, or some other label that they love to pin on people with different opinions. But that’s the reality. Get a viable candidate with a pragmatic platform and I will listen. But right now Trump is the safer play.

  138. @Jason Sadly, I am forced to agree with you, and I am a registered Democrat. The Left has devolved into lunacy. Instead of seeing red flags and listening to wake up calls, it sees enemies and hears conspiracy, and then convinces itself to step on the gas and drive off the cliff with greater determination. If Trump wins the next election, one wonders whether even this will be sufficient to actually wake the Democrats up.

  139. @Jason Sadly, I am forced to agree with you, and I am a registered Democrat. The Left has devolved into lunacy. Instead of seeing red flags and listening to wake up calls, it sees enemies and hears conspiracy, and then convinces itself to step on the gas and drive off the cliff with greater determination. If Trump wins the next election, one wonders whether even this will be sufficient to actually wake the Democrats up.

  140. As long as republicans keep indoctrinating their youth at Hillsdale College in Michigan and Liberty University in Virginia, they will continue to pump out mindless drones parroting the politics of division, hiding behind God and patriotism. The republican party is not doomed until someone cuts off the money being poured into the republican party by wealthy private and corporate donors.

  141. I saw the headline “Republican Party is Doomed” and had to wonder if I was reading The Onion. The GOP controls the White House, the Supreme Court, the Senate and a healthy majority of state governments. The Democrats wish they could someday be doomed to a similar fate. I have been reading about the imminent demise of the GOP since the Nixon Administration. Remember all those polls that said Hillary would wipe the floor with Trump’s hairpiece? This sort of article only leads to complacency on Election Day. Trump would love Greenberg to write a piece like this every day.

  142. @Victor James It is presented as the long view, not the short cycle transaction of today. The only lasting power of the republican party will be their salting the judicial system with conservative (and sometimes inept and pliable) judges. This can be overcome with good control of the other two branches, which Trump is single handedly helping repbulicans to lose both.

  143. @Chuck "It is presented as the long view, not the short cycle transaction of today." That's not what the opening paragraph states. "The 2020 election will be transformative like few in our history. It will end with the death of the Republican Party as we know it, leaving the survivors to begin the struggle to renew the party of Lincoln and make it relevant for our times" As far as that statement goes, I think someone forgot to send it to the 30 state legislatures controlled by Republicans (18 Democrats, 2 split). Turning those kinds of disparate numbers around probably won't happen overnight (or next year, for that matter).

  144. @Victor James What Greenberg is trying to tell you is that you have to have faith in your own values to win the election, because the vast majority leans to the Left. Look at his data. That is what he is trying to show. Democrats keep losing because Centrists refuse to oppose the Right and would rather attack the base of their own party than their actual opponents. The Right is Extreme. The Left is not. Moderates know this and as soon as the Democratic Party stops attacking its own base, but instead tries to grow it, Democrats will win.

  145. Who can do it Mr. Greenberg?

  146. New data makes it clear: Nonvoters handed Trump the Presidency. "The data also makes another point very clear: Those who didn’t vote are as responsible for the outcome of the election as those who did." Translation: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS "NOT" VOTING. If you "don't" vote, you vote by default. You say you can't change things by voting? BULL! You in fact DO change things by not voting. I'm going to post this every day until Election Day, 2020. The only meaningful political activism is to put your time, energy and focus into registering voters and getting them to vote. All other protest and demonstration is just playing defense. Playing political defense, the best you can do is tie. You cannot win. If you don't vote, the people empowering ICE, stay in power. If you don't vote, the people putting children in cages, stay in power. If you don't vote, the people heating up the planet, stay in power. If you don't vote, the people polluting your air and water, stay in power. If you don't vote, the people making the rich richer, and the rest of us poorer, stay in power. Not voting is exactly what to do, if we want to keep Trump and the Republicans in power, and keep ourselves powerless.

  147. Senator Dianne Feinstein was asked about Senator Susan Collins. ==== “Yes,” said Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), when asked if she’s conflicted. “I’m very fond of her. I consider her a friend. I trust her. I believe she’s a good senator.” ==== Apparently Feinstein thinks the Senate is a girls club. Also Speaker Pelosi didn't impeach Bush and won't impeach Trump. We are dealing with the gang that can't shoot straight.

  148. So foolish. They will never die! They will cling to life just long enough for the world to burn

  149. If only...

  150. Funny. And untrue.

  151. Most Americans now view the Democratic party as the anti White party. Don't expectto win with a platform like that.

  152. @Cookies & Milk Hillary got three million more votes than Trump so I'm not sure how accurate your post is.

  153. @Cookies & Milk Then most Americans are either stupid or don't take their eyes off Fox Fake News because that is decidedly not the platform of any of the Democratic front runners.

  154. Lest the Democrats forget the words of James Carville, "The economy stupid".

  155. As long as Democrats call everyone racists and sexists and call for socialism, moderates like me will stick to free enterprise, liberty-loving Republicans. Democrats have lost the center.

  156. Good Riddance! G.O.P. - R.I.P.

  157. As long as there are greedy people and people who hate other people, the Republican Party will survive.

  158. "The elites who mostly live in America’s dynamic metropolitan areas were satisfied with America’s economic progress after the financial crash, but overall it helped make Donald Trump electable." It seems that the term "elites" is a pejorative meant to conjure up Dems and Independents in the tech sectors with good educations and stock grants. I think it's an overused term with an elastic definition that is meant to separate "real Americans" in rural (Red) taker-states from those who live in the Blue giver-states that fuel America's economy. Let's get real about where our money comes from. How do you categorize Betsy DeVos and Wilbur Ross? They certainly appear elite to me. Aren't the Trumps elite? The Murdochs? The Kochs? Isn't it true that Trump prefers those with Ivy League educations? Either define your terms or don't use them please.

  159. Democrats could screwup the recipe for making ice!!! They have proven time and time again how dysfunctional they are as a political organization. They have no message that resonates with their constituents. Pelosi is herding cats in Congress dealing with the daily nonsense from AOC and her gang of odd balls. The GOP is on the rise.

  160. From Greenberg's lips to god's ears as they say. I do think this is an era when the world needs radical progressive change. If Trumpism is beginning to fade, let's hope timid centrism among the Democrats doesn't thwart progressive momentum and allow Trump to sneak back in as the only candidate who can excite the masses.

  161. Nice article, Mr. Greenberg, but I don’t buy it. As a high school kid in 1964, I read articles predicting that Goldwater’s loss was so devastating to the GOP that the party would never recover. Four years later, Richard Nixon was elected president. Four years after that, he was re-elected. Eight years later, Ronald Reagan was elected. And so on. Trump offers simple answers to complex questions, and that’s the perfect lure for voters who lack intelligence, curiosity, and logic. And there are millions and millions of them. Trump wins in 2020. Count on it.

  162. @R. Law. They’ve already abandoned both.

  163. I think we have arrived at a time in history where the very fundamentals of our democracies need to be scrutinized – not just in the US, but around the world. Despots terrorize their populations, but officeholders in the great democratic nations did not push previously push their powers to the extent that we are now witnessing. The party that successfully guided the Union to victory and its role in the abolition of slavery is now a vile shadow of its former self. A century ago the Republican Party underwent an ideological shift to the right and since then has inexorably mutated into one that now both courts and supports a ‘wanna-be’ dictator. Abraham Lincoln would be shocked, appalled, disgusted and disappointed with what the GOP has become, and immediately disaffiliate himself from this party.

  164. The decremental arc of the Republican Party is complete. Allegiance to Trump is now absolute, and adherence to principled values is now extinct. As a tool of the wealthy, and wielding wedge issues as its weapon, the Republican Party has, for the last several decades, kept America from its goal of egalitarianism... not socialism. The Republican Party has been a spoke in the wheel of America's progress for the profit of the few. It will not be missed by me.

  165. ".....but it also revealed what has become a defining partisan difference: a Republican Party determined to destroy government outside of defense and a Democratic Party determined to use it expansively." Greenberg, you nailed it in that sentence. Your extraordinary article should be required reading for every Democrat and non-Trump Republican. We can save our democracy from the rampant unbridled capitalism that has been devouring the heart and soul of this country for decades.

  166. Hope this column is not Pollyannish. Greenberg has been wrong before. But the column does make one consider how critical the issue of “electability” should be. If this really is a wave election for Dems, why elect a more-of-the-same guy like Biden? Warren’s many plans will have to go through a congressional wringer of more moderate Dems who will file down the sharp edges before they become law, assuming Dems win the Senate (a big assumption, despite Greenberg’s optimism). Things need to get done after so much Republican cruelty and opposition to even mild solutions. Climate is threatening, women’s health care is jeopardized, specifically, and for all middle class and below generally, our foreign “policy” is bad to non-existent, guns need to be reined in, the New Gilded Age must end equitably . . . the list is long. Why nominate another person beholding to Wall Street who seems to be happy throwing a Dixie Cup of water on the flames when a fire hose is necessary? Warren is smart, appealing in an earnest grandma kind of way, and does not campaign by trashing others. It is still too early to take sides, but, at this point, the gods seem to favor Warren. That is not a bad thing.

  167. Just this: I hope you're right.

  168. There are some very good points and analyses in this piece. The most salient, is that elections are essentially about emotion, and the winners are those who understand those emotions and are able to use that understanding to seek votes. So, when the leading Dem nominees are: a rigid, scolding Socialist committed to follow a failed ideology from the 1930s, an intellectual professor who comes across as harsh, and a comfortable, soothing, unchallenging moderate with experience in government during the “good old days”, who is likely to win?? But, for change to occur, Americans must be willing to briefly put down their mobile devices, accept their responsibility as citizens, get off their butts, AND VOTE!!

  169. I am far less sanguine than Greenberg that the 2020 election will sound the deathknell for the Republican Party. But if the party does die it will be from self-inflicted wounds. Once upon a time the GOP was the party of fiscal and secular conservatism—made up of Alan-Simpson-type conservatives who wanted government out of bedrooms as well as pocketbooks and led by white-shoe professionals who saw themselves as the adults in the room. But Richard Nixon couldn’t win with that base, so he lured in conservative Catholics with an anti-abortion plank and the Southern defenders of white privilege with promises of “states’ rights.” And the party has been a magnet for social and white-pride conservatives ever since. And now they’ve taken over the store. According to Greenberg, seventy percent of the GOP base now consists of evangelicals, Tea Partiers and Catholic conservatives. And while not held across the whole, look at their causes: the preservation of white privilege and a white majority, Christian Zionism (which sees Jews as eschatological pawns), the marginalization of the LGBT community in the name of religious liberty, the unconstitutionality of abortion (which would institutionalize diminution of women’s power in the name of the “unborn”) and fiscal conservatism (to the extent it denies benefits to the “undeserving”). Trump rode these issues to victory in 2016. Whether they sustain him and the GOP will be up to the turnout of voters who see their malignancy.

  170. Great article and I hate to quibble over details but the phrase ‘Mr. Obama, Hillary Clinton and Mr. Trump’ is bothersome. If you have to ask why, you are probably not a woman of a ‘certain age’.

  171. Sure, I'll believe it when I see it.

  172. "Which candidate has a theory of the case that pushes aside other interpretations and critiques?" And critically, how does that candidate dumb that theory down enough for the public, which seems to have the attention span of a flea, to swallow?

  173. From Stan’s lips to God’s ear.

  174. When will we see an NYT-hosted debate between Mr. Greenberg and Bret Stephens? That I’d like to see.

  175. OK Stan, and Hillary is going to win with 93% of the vote, 100 million votes to 1. Go away Mr Greenberg!

  176. A political party that foisted presidents like George Bush and Donald Trump on the American public did more harm than good. Such incompetents allow national problems to linger on and on without any resolution. Trump has created an immigration problem practically out of whole cloth while at the same time trying to take health insurance away from millions of Americans.

  177. Headlines like this make me cringe. Presenting an opinion as a statement of fact is not helpful. You can reference all the polls and studies you like, slap up a few charts and graphs analyze it all to your hearts content and it all adds up to nothing. The only certainty is that nothing is certain.

  178. Mr. Greenberg, despite your intelligent analysis and wide, and so many other pundits, JUST DON'T GET IT. This whole autocratic, authoritarian, strong-man movement - led by Trump and the Republicans - is all about fear of the "other" (i.e. race/religion, sexual orientation), at least as much as it is about economic fears. Trump sparked people's fears about "illegals," brown people and women - coming in and taking so-called good jobs and entitlements that white males are supposed to have (which is total myth but they believe it). Sure, Dems can try to go after these "fear-based" voters, but if the Dem nominee is a person of color, or a woman, or gay...those fear-based voters are probably not going to pull the lever for them. Just saying.

  179. @Sdtrueman Yes, fear of "the other." The left is morally pure and has never had a bigoted thought about Christians, pro-life supporters, those that want a strong border, Catholics, those that favor a one state solution for Israel, Trump supporters, anyone that believes in God or religion, white men, anyone that went to prep school, anyone that wears a red hat, those that are supposedly "rich," or dares to hold an opinion outside of liberal orthodoxy. Talk about fear of "the other!" It's fear, loathing and hate!

  180. All that matters is how voters feel: I for one am motivated because I am tired of an unfair field of play. I want to see a middle class and a lower class that has more power over politics than the Koch clan's billions do... And Democrats, some of them, understand that they need to connect the dots on how government can fix our social problems. I continue to hope for an end to corporate welfare, useless tax breaks, and a return to a nation where we expect those who receive the greatest profits to shoulder a commensurate responsibility to contribute to the upkeep of that same system. Hell, maybe we can even get a senate that debates and passes legislation! That would be wild!

  181. Even though the Feds are saying they do not predict a recession, the housing market is starting to slump. In addition there are other indications that the economy is at least slowing. This is on top of the large amount of crap-jobs that we have a choice of. The problem with this administration is that they have a way of saving Trump from any embarrassment, even if it means burying the truth. Clearly, contradicting him means the death of employment, see NOAA. I do not know if the republican party is done, but I wouldn't even consider voting for a moderate republican, even if he were the epitome of honor. I like John Kasich, but he should look for another political party. The current Republican party is now synonymous with white boy anger and hate. And they have shown themselves sympathetic to the plight of white supremacist terrorists. By the way, we are now 10x more likely to be shot down in the supermarket by one of these blue-blooded Americans, than killed by any immigrant.

  182. I respect Mr. Greenberg's work, but take issue with the big-picture conclusion. The GOP is ALREADY dead, it just hasn't fallen down yet. It died when a two-bit punk from Queens hotwired it for a joyride and then kept it. The politicians and party "leadership" showed just how brittle they were, and how thin their convictions were, by their abject capitulation to this Trumpification. The Trump Dynasty party without The Donald will be risible and pathetic. Led by... Junior? Ivanka? Please. Not to say that that the Democrats couldn't screw this up with great aplomb. We have great talent, we can run unopposed and lose.

  183. The notion that the Republican Party is dead is premature. The same has been said of the Democrats over the years. Political parties cycle in and out of power. The Democrats have a great opportunity. I hope they don't waste it.

  184. It's significant that one of the articles cited at the end of Greenberg's piece was "Trump Is Starting to Lose His Grip," written almost a year ago. Well, guess what? Trump may be losing his mind, but he's not losing his base, despite more and more evidence that he's screwing them. And never underestimate the ability of the Demos to shoot themselves in the foot - after shooting at, and fatally wounding, each other. As one letter-writer said, "I'd love to believe you're right." But I ain't holding my breath.