Trump took an existing good economy, added his ignorance of economics and usual blather & destruction method of operation, refused to listen to even his own advisors, and has us headed for another recession.
Trump's solution? - blame the FED.
And if that doesn't pan out maybe he can blame Hillary Clinton's emails, or the hoards of murderers and rapists at the border.
What does it take for the right to figure out that this guy has no clue what he's doing?
4
Before trying to to solve a problem, first define what the problem is.
In the case with China I am confused. I think the real problem is Chinese company's stealing our company's secrets. Can't we more simply identify those companies and not import their goods nor export to them the products that contain our proprietary data? I am sure there are other ways of tactically hurting these thieves thru the financial banking system, refusing their kids access to our universities etc. How did we end up trying to solve the problem by screwing some poor farmer in Iowa who could care less about balance of payments etc.
Trump has initiated an economic World War. He already put into effect sanctions against Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Syria, North Korea (for all his love to a dictator, he continues his sanctions) and the EU if they trade with those countries plus tariffs. Trade war with China. Renegotiated NAFTA. Wants a balanced trade which is illogic, as if the USA had no money. Still believes China and the other countries will pay for higher tariffs when is the American consumer who will pay at the end. If the American consumer wants to spend, well, that's his /her choice. Wages war against immigrants who come to do work Americans don't want to do. ICE arrests workers who are actually working in tough conditions and ICE don't arrest the owners of those companies. I heard an African American talking to her friend at the post office, showing compassion for undocumented farmers: "we already did that kind of work in the past, we don't want to do it again." Why deport these workers if the unemployment rate is so low? Plain racism against brown people, criminalizing them when most immigrants to this country came for the same reason. This madness seems to have no end. Hope in 2020 common sense prevails and the country continues its path forward, not backward.
2
No worries, the moron president is going to a rally tonight. Remember Obama, after his election he hunkered down into meetings and reading about the economy into early hours of his mornings. This one, after yesterdays whipsaw, he goes to a rally. Aren't you afraid? You should be.
6
@Frank Lopez
Yes exactly and speaking of Obama he increased the Dow Jones Industrial average by 41.7% over the same time span that the stable economic genius increased it my a mere 30.4% The so called "good" economy under Trump is a myth. Like just about everything he says it is a "fake" meme. He is versatile. He can wreck anything.
3
The Village Idiot has acted like a 5 year old having a tantrum for his whole life. This has consistently led to six bankruptcies over the decades after he broke loose from “Daddy”. There has been no change in him and so get ready for world bankruptcy number seven. For those who voted for him - own it! For those who didn’t vote - own it! For the rest of us, remember who got us into this for every second of your suffering and make sure they own it for the rest of their lives.
7
Of course retail sales are up. It's back to school shopping. And they'll probably be up before Christmas too. But any excuse now will do.
2
So is anyone really surprised by Trump who went bankrupt 6 times and bankrupted a casino, crashing the economy? Who bankrupts a casino? Trump is at least partly to blame for crashing the economy and we will all pay dearly. Most people knew that he didn't have a clue, nor did he care to put in the effort to know or even care to know at all about how the economy works. Now things are going south. Get ready for more racism and tweets. Somehow he is going to blame Latinos.
6
He's already blaming the Media and the Federal Reserve. Of course when the economy was looking good it was all due to him.
2
One wonders if the SEC is looking at options trading by family and associates of our president. I smell a rat. His associates either thru complicity with the president or just happenstance knowledge of "the next Trump tweet" could be making a fortune as Trump continues daily to roil the markets. But alas, as is the case In so many of the govt agencies sworn to provide oversight to politicians actions are grifters appointed by Trump ….As is the case with the SEC.
4
trump wants to buy Greenland ??
He’s more familiar with purchasing stuff like
Stormy ‘ s merchandise .
1
I have a stock trader wonk friend who likes to boast of his uncanny success at it as due to his “beautiful mind-like analytical abilities”. Early this morning when I saw him in Starbucks he looked like a haggard hung over beach bum who could barely stay standing, he was so discombobulated.
3
Trump really knows how to squander a good thing.
That’s his entire life story.
3
Corporations and wealthy Americans sold out their working countrymen for cheap Chinese sweatshop labor.
And now they whine about IP and unfair trade imbalances?
It’s time to pay the piper, SELLOUTS!
4
"Stocks swerved up and down on Thursday ..."
"Trump swerved up and down for 30 months ..."
2
Republicans took a US economic boom and chucked it in the toilet this week. Following Trump over the cliff. Idiots!
3
"Unemployment remains near its lowest levels in a half-century. Government data released on Thursday appeared to confirm consumer demand remains robust."
Why does the Times need reporters, if all it is going to do is to republish government handouts?
Working people know firsthand that unemployment figures are not an accurate gauge of the health of the economy.
Consumer debt is still up, people are working harder than ever, and real wages are at the same level they were at in 1970, adjusted for inflation.
The seesaw prices in the stock market reflect the concerns of the wealthy, not the modest retirement accounts of working people, who depend not upon buying and selling stocks, but reliable dividends.
5
Gullibility seems to be an internationally shard trait. It is multicultural. If the president reversed his trade war policy today the damage is done for at least 20 years in terms of supply chains. The elements of the economy that are "good" are inherited from Obama's good work after the Global Financial Crisis. How quickly that is forgotten. Trump inherited the "good" economy just as he inherited his father's fortune. And we know what Donald did with his inheritance. Now he is trashing the American economy. I cannot believe the Dems are not getting this across more effectively. Just like Donald's hair-do and "patriotism" the narrative of the "good" economy is fake.
5
Thanks for the interactive 3D inverted yield curve graph. Now I think I finally understand string theory.
4
Gosh. It seems like it was just 24 hours ago we all met here to describe the plummeting recession likelihood and then insult those who voted for our President. Now, it's not a great deal rosier today, but the gloom 'n' doomers must be apoplectic by now. Yes, it was just a blip yesterday.
2
Did some snowflake get triggered yesterday when his idol was mildly insulted?
Learn to live with it NC.
Some of us didn't bat an eye when our President was trashed daily by Fox & Friend Rush from 2009 to 2017.
Grow a spine or go back into your safe space.
Rosier? Drop or 3 points, followed by an increase of 1/4?
The fact that the accident only killed 15 people rather than 20 makes it "rosier"
Yes, maybe not as bad as it looked the day before, but still bad.
Then again, maybe you are an eternal optimist. Less bad = rosier
3
There are so many reasons to insult this president, that it would be easy to let this one go. Yet all this uncertainty is surely about him and his constant erratic moves. As for your choice to support a man who most of us know to be a rapist, a dyed-in-the wool lifetime racist and an unceasing pathological liar, I will reserve my opinion.
4
Trump's economic "policy" is no deeper than what he hears on Fox & Friends. Brian Kilmeade, Steve Doocey, and the blonde in the middle are basically trolling Trump every morning.
6
trump put all the great Economic minds together and they All shouted with one accord .SHOW US don HOW EASY IT IS TO DECLARE
BANKRUPTCY .
7
Donald Trump is a day trader. He has no long term strategy other than "I want to win, and I want to be RICH and FAMOUS."
There is no plan for reaching deals with anyone. The method used by Trump is to negotiate to a "deal", and then to demand a "sweetener" just before agreeing to sign the "deal." He has done that for years in his business deals in New York, with the result that most people decide dealing with Trump is a one-time event, never to be repeated.
He has unresolved trade issues with China, North Korea, Europe, and even Mexico and Canada (because the USMCA is not final yet).
If you consider that there are multiple ways in which Trump can mess up our economy, and the world economy as well, and there are very few ways things "come out ok,"my money is literally on the proposition that we are in for a rough economic period in the near future.
69
I'm not too worried about this because the business genius says "trade wars are easy to win." Another truism is that in the casino business "the house always wins." Have you ever heard of a casino group going bankrupt? Nothing to worry about I say, nothing at all.
62
@Bob
It takes real talent to go bankrupt running casinos ... er ... money machines.
It takes a "very stable genius" to go bankrupt 4 times running casinos, because that means you learned ZERO from bankruptcies 1, 2, and 3.
37
@Joe From Boston
Trump doesn’t “learn” he burns. He burned through every bail out Daddy ever gave him until no US bank would loan to him. He was already in debt to the Russian mob who basically foreclosed on his casinos with criminal racketeering.
4
I realized only after I sent my response your facetious intent. My bad.
China will try their best to help Trump win 2020. Xi Jinping definitely prefers to deal with Trump who can easily be bribed and manipulated. Actually Trump's trade war rhetoric has worked out well for Xi, who has been using nationalism to boost his support in China.
9
@Shell W. There wouldn’t have been the remotest hint of trade wars with anyone else as President. That’s because NO ONE WINS! Does Trump think that we’ll recover from the next global recession if we’re still doing trade wars?
6
@Shell W. Sorry but your comment seems tell that you don’t have much knowledge about China and how China thinks and operates. I’m sure it’s intuitive to have the stereotype that CPC is all about bribery and corruption, and they were indeed systematic problems before Xi’s administration. Most of the people in China recognized that and Xi’s administration responded to that, which leads to huge changes and improvement that are palpable to many nowadays.
As for Trump, he is the president your American people elected to the office under your system. Set aside how he wants to take advantage of other nations at every corner by every chance (if you disagree, ask Mexico, Canada, the EU), the fundamental that matters in the Chinese system is stability, something Trump does not understand and is not remotely close to. So, while Chinese government will never comment on if they want trump or not (which would be inappropriate and more because it’s your internal affair, American people got him into the office), as a citizen I would say we don’t want him (cuz he is dragging the whole world down into this downward spiral and he has been since him joining the 2016 campaign eroding your precious democratic system which I 100% respect and admire and hope it works well)
It’s a day trader’s paradise.
4
No.
It's a paradise if you are Close Associate of Donny boy.
Note that I did not say friend. I'm not sure he has a single one except his dwife, Ivanka.
1
The NYT is the last place I would look for unbiased, independent, and balanced reporting on any subject matter involving the President whatsoever.
And yet, here you are reading it!
10
@Charlie
Balance. Yes, I agree.
We should meet Trump halfway; i.e., accept half his lies and half of his inept handling of the economy.
/s
2
@Charlie
Why Charlie? Because they published the painstaking piece about the Trump family corruption that was entrenched decades before he was elected? Did you read it? It presented facts. Facts are the opposite of fake. It is very hard to help people escape a cult. I would like to help Trump cultists escape but it is a lost cause as it is with any personality cult.
3
The Koch network, John the Vulture Paulson, Sheldon Adelson, MBA, Putin and Netanyahu are at it again, making themselves the beneficiaries of another global recession. Except this time the trade war with China is going to tank the world economy not during the October before elections but this October, just as the stock market winds down the drain and Europe craps out a Brexit.
This time China won’t bail us out. They’ll flip the bank and turn the petrodollar into Chinese currency. Then we’ll be jumping out of windows building phones for the Chinese.
Did anybody ever wonder if what’s happening in Hong Kong and Washington is the bait and switch fall of the US empire to a police state manufacturing economy while China establishes a consumer capitalist economy?
2
Some way to fight a trade war: China holds a trillion of US Treasury bonds dated between 10 to 20 years. The capital gains on these bonds year to date is 25%. More tariffs, threats, and retribution drives yields lower and prices higher. More than a good portion of these bonds are owned by the Chinese Communist Party. Nice job Mr. President you are making our adversaries...Every tweet drives the thirty and ten Treasury bonds lower resulting in still more higher prices. Why would the president of China settle with you. He can buy Mara Lago Fla and any of your towers? And I suspect the President's cabinet is doing very well too.
1
@King of clouts Addendum: that is 250 billion dollars plus in just 7 months plus interest.....
1
In these times, which are special in multiple ways (if any) I commend almost any effort by the Times to find multiple causes for the effects we observe. I really don’t worry too awful much about the press excessively broadening its analysis.
1
It would be interesting if readers could see, weekly or monthly perhaps, a set of graphs of the major exchanges over their entire histories.
At the nadir of the 2008 mess I printed a graph of the NYSE over its entire ~century-long life. As I had suspected, it was possible to fit to that jagged graph a smooth curve that showed 2008 - and 1929 - as corrections. There is nothing correct about hunger, suicide and war, but it set me pondering the unquestioned (by some, often including me) assumption that the price of stock is the best proxy for human welfare.
Not to worry, your stable genius knows all about trade wars. And don't forget all his business deals that went south. The day he walked down that escalator was the beginning of the end and those wimps in congress won't try to restrain him. He and his cohorts don't care about their children/grandchildren, but we care about ours and hope for a better world for them once we are rid of him in the next election.
3
The people who vote for Trump will find out when he’s re-elected that he will forget everything he ever promised. They will no longer be useful to him since He can’t run again. His supporters don’t buy real estate and he doesn’t care about impressing them. His lifelong pattern is sell to the greater fool and then walk away. Rural voters who trusted him will be the biggest losers but, We’re all in for some hard times...
4
Do we have any responsible world leaders?
1
Nothing will move DJT supporters until they feel the pinch of this in their own wallets and pocketbooks. The ones who aren’t white supremacists and absolutists on phony immigration solutions like walls and cages care only about money.
And maybe once McConnell and his ilk have their ill gotten gains lost to poor “decisions” by DJT, we’ll see some reason there.
There is nothing DJT, the GOP and anyone sane who cast a vote for any of them care about.
2
With interest rates falling and economic stimulation increasing the bond markets have reacted. Whatever good news on the markets today, economic news will not change the current trend. Poor leadership and stupid greed put a growing US economy on the fast track to a recession.
2
So, will Congress sit quietly while the Republican false king of finance, trade, and everything so brashly and foolishly bankrupts the whole world?!
Congress: Siting idly by makes you, each and every one, complicit, cowardly, and unAmerican. DO WHAT YOU MUST To actually SAVE THE WORLD. Or be part of this history for the next 50-100 years.
2
China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia...and our ship of state has Captain Queeg at the helm...
13
F5 in the neighborhood.
What do we expect when we elected as "Leader of the Free World" a man who has had numerous bankrupsies?
3
This incompetent fool is destroying what was a solid growing economy from the previous Larry Summers team.
Kudlow has no PHD and limited knowledge of how markets operate. A seriously authentic president concerned about the country's economy would have the best team for the job. International markets aren't to be monkeyed with. Republicans in the senate are complicit with this incompetent creature.
3
“Dark psychic force” meet Inverted Yield Curve
2
American export can grow only when the economies of other counties grow. When foreign consumers see a drop in their disposable income, they are less likely to buy imported, and often more expensive goods.
As many of suspected, including a few Republicans, Mr. Trump's self-proclaimed business skills as a real estate developer and defrauder in his many failed enterprises such as his airline and Trump U., are not working or translating at all well into what is required of a president of this country, which require most of all planning and strategy, diplomacy, working for stability, and demonstrating a genuine concern for the public well being and good.
1
The Trump/Republican economic policies are about to bear the fruit of a recession. Obama’s economic recovery is over.
The Trump publicans news after tax cuts for the wealthy would cause a recession, not to mention trumps trade war policies.
Here they are again, the Republicans destroying the economy.
5
A lot of commenters are saying “China’s too smart for Trump and they’ll let him wreck our economy.”
The thing is, China would like nothing better than four more years of Trump. It’s in both of their interests to rattle their spears now and make peace around about June, 2020, just in time to build consumer enthusiasm ahead of the election.
1
@Josh Wilson, no they don't. At first Xi may have been happy about his election (because China realized that Trump's aversion to mulitlateralism would make China's Belt and Road initiative easier to enact as well as he realized China could dominate new energy industries such as solar energy and battery technology) but now he sees Trump is too volatile. Furthermore. he realizes, since he is a ruler for life that he needs a partner in fighting climate change. He knows it is real and that is why, after building so many coal-powered plants, they (like India) are at the same time trying to transition to carbon-free energy sources.
"The only problem our economy has is the Fed" ... so says stable genius trump. Really? How about tariffs imposed willy nilly without fore thought? Or government shut downs over a wall that Mexico won’t pay for? Or a ballooning federal deficit because of tax cuts that aren’t paying for themselves? Or a complete dysfunction and utter chaos in the WH now aggravated even more by the deliberate reckless dismantling of national security? And the nonsensical tweeting about firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve doesn’t help either.
7
China has no choice, they must go all-in against the bully.
When a bully threatens you, the correct response is not to ignore him and hope he settles down, it is to go straight for his jugular and inflict maximum damage. This way, the bully never comes for you again.
This is China’s moment. The world is watching. China can take a punch, but will she throw one against a stronger counterpuncher?
China can withstand an economic hit if it benefits their big picture and global stature in the long term. They will take that hit. The US can’t stomach three days of stock market decline without going into a collective panic. We will lose a trade war, even though our economy will suffer far fewer consequences than would China’s.
(There is also that the world knows we are governed by a mercurial ignoramus blowhard running for re-election to avoid jail and the complete ruin of his family business. So basically we lost already).
93
@A. Simon
Who says they'll keep punching? Study Aikido. There's no attack; you use your opponent's force against them. There's more than one way to engage an opponent.
China can go the distance. Can Trump?
11
@A. Simon No, that is the predictable US method, even Trumps method but certainly not Chinese or Asian for that matter. China has build and is building alternative routes for their manufacturing for the world concept.
The growing internal market, but also the Belt&Road program, and buying massively agricultural real estate across Europe aswell as Industrial infrastructure.
Thanks to the US partially for being obsessed with other matters "me first" instead of strengthening a WTO team, and ofcourse the UK busy sailing of to the sunset.
Russia is happy dealing with China, and together they are dividing Africa like the foreign colonial powers used to do. Lessons learned.
11
@S James
Even with Aikido you have to take measure of your stamina, and your opponent is still an “opponent”.
Of your opponent blows himself up, great, but if he also manages to blow up the entire world in the process, you have to take measure of that. In this case, America’s weakness affects China’s strength. Until China has achieved their world domination goals, they will have to brace for incoming. My point is that today’s China can, and will, be ready for it.
6
Cripes, are we ever in hot water.
Thank you, Republicans! You’ve elected a wrecking ball for the US economy.
Nice going!
13
For those who are quick to blame Trump again, don’t forget the other party, CHINA. The US demands are very reasonable in seeking a fair and balanced trade policies and China has refused to come to terms. The US demands are very reasonable. The trade war would end quickly if China just accept the same rules the US has with our European partners.
6
@Qcell Consider this for a moment. We don't own anything in China but they own everything here. Who sold it to them? Folks like Trump.
31
"Fair and balanced," huh? My poker buddies would call that a tell. Nice try.
24
@Qcell, you’re not serious, are you? You believe what you just wrote?
14
This reminds me of Bush Jr., MBA's approach to the economy.
You drain the treasury surplus through massive tax cuts, wage a war and keep the costs (short and long term) off the books, and then look like a deer in the headlights muttering "this sucker could go down." Just another in a long list of his financial failures over the years, ones that his daddy, George Sr. and his friends, had bailed him out of in the past.
And the country has done it again. Elected a guy who hasn't a clue what he's doing, without a daddy in sight to bail him out this time.
What did George Jr. like to say? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me ... you can't get fooled again. We should be so lucky.
53
I applaud Trump's words regarding Hong Kong. Even if they seem tacked on as an afterthought, statements like this may very well keep the Chinese government from brutally cracking down on the protesters there.
1
@Mr. Adams china has historically murdered 100,000s ,In 1971 west Pakistan invaded East Pakistan to impress the Chinese w Nixons help & 3 million were murdered.
I doubt they care what we think.
6
@Mr. Adams, if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you ... Trump is signaling to Xi that he could not care less about HK or their commitment to the treaty ... he’s a wimp under pressure and with these silly tariffs has tossed away our leverage for addressing important issues like this one or China’s aggression in the South China Sea ... the man is not strategic at all. Stupidity is his greatest asset.
9
@Mr Adams — He means not one word of it. If he did, he would have made a comment about Hong Kong long before now, and not tied it to the tariff war. As usual on any kind of human rights issue, or anything involving a dictatorship, he’s quiet. But if he can manipulate it...
Oportunism and cynicism at their worst.
3
Volatility in the stock market preceded the 1929 crash that ushered in the Great Depression. Just saying.
3
I continue to be astounded at how markets react to what Trump says he will do, as time and again this has proved to be nearly worthless. They should look at what he does, but through a particular lens.
Trump is terrified of looking weak, so he's afraid of giving anything to Xi. He must be seen as not just winning, but also as making China lose. That's how he thinks the world works in all settings. Xi knows this, as Trump is as transparent as hard vacuum.
Trump also is tough if and only if he is punching down. Time and again Trump's bark has been orders of magnitude stronger than his bite. He's threatened so many lawsuits that failed to materialize it's almost impossible to keep count (to give one of many examples). Xi knows this, too.
Finally Xi's ability to get his population to fall in line is vastly greater than Trump's....and Trump is facing and election that Xi is not. You usually win a boxing match by outlasting your opponent, and Trump has a glass jaw.
Yet more evidence that the stock market is not as coldly rational as Adam Smith worshipers like Greenspan would have you believe.
33
@Nathan Hansard, he’s not just saying things—not that a president’s utterances are insignificant—he’s also doing things. Tariffs? Threats? Hello?
A wise leader keeps quiet. His words should be rare and considered. They should have meaning when spoken. Otherwise, they’re just inflated currency that overheats everything.
Our blowhard-in-chief talks too much about nothing and nonsense, but the world is used to taking every word a president says seriously.
We’ve installed idiocy where people expected wisdom.
14
@Nathan Hansard Consider his half dozen tweets just today, Xi is a great friend, meeting suggestion by another tweet and then retweeting himself to say that he is certain Xi will find a "Happy and Enlightened" way to end the Hong Kong situation, or trade who can remember? He has rarely seemed this insane, I've spent over half my life in Asia, no one can take him seriously or trust a word he says/tweets.
7
Excellent.
The pundits, the economists, Krugman included, American politicians, most of whom have never even visited China continue to underestimate China.
China is not some third world country that can be manipulated, threatened, or blackmailed by a real estate developer turned television entertainer, turned politician.
American pocketbooks, 401Ks and ultimately their jobs, will be the sorrier for allowing Trump to remain in power and not impeached or removed by the 25th amendment.
186
@A P
You have that right. Every time I see footage of China's cities I am surprised by the infrastructure. Trump seems not to have processed the changes in China's in the last 25 years. I suspect that soon even he will learn that trade wars with a superpower are not so easy to win. Meanwhile, farmers are asking what to do with all of those soy beans.
58
@A P
You nailed it....
and people still believe Chinese are living in some kind of obscure world...
They haven't even notice that they are acquiring real estate in the US like crazy.... In my building six Chinese families just moved in.... How much they paid per apartment? Up to $700,000.... How many people can just afford that like that.....
21
AP — Absolutely. Trump seems to think his primitive, strongarm negotiating tactics that cowed investors and other patsies back in New York and other locales will work just as well with a behemoth like China.
His bluff is about to be called, big time (or bigly). The halcyon days of markets in the stratosphere will be but a pleasant memory, as will our retirement savings.
Farmers are the warning bell as to what may be coming to other sectors. We all see it, but will Trump’s base? Yet again, they will be key to this country’s future. Be afraid. Very afraid.
22
Among other things, Trump bankrupted his casinos, defrauded students and demolished Trump University, displayed a lack knowledge about complex issues, misused his Trump Trust, and at one time incurred the largest financial losses of any U.S. taxpayer.
Folks, why would you think Trump will handle the U.S. economy or global trade issues any differently?
408
@Richard
My thoughts exactly, however, I think most of his die hard supporters don't comprehend how the markets and the global economy work. If they did, they would have understood that it was the choices of the previous administration that pulled us out of a recession.
90
@Richard
Doing what he does best — leaving a wake of desolation & destruction, this time on a much larger scale.
At least he’s consistent.
11
@CKA
Many of his supporters don't care about it as long as he's beating up on Those People (non-whites, LQBTQ folks, liberals, the list goes on). Hate and resentment motivate the GOP base more than anything else.
Trump's genius was his seeing this more clearly than anyone else, and his personality disorders let him harness this old GOP strategy more loudly and shamelessly than anyone since Nixon's Southern Strategy.
It will work again unless we make sure it doesn't.
52
Once and for all, I hope we can stop reading that U.S. presidents can’t really impact the U.S. economy or world economy all that much. Oh yes, they can, and Trump’s completely counterproductive and unnecessary trade wars are a textbook case showing precisely how it’s done.
For all you willfully ignorant business people who have supported this mind-bogglingly destructive man: the stock market, 100% of the time, always does better under Democratic administrations than Republican ones, as that bastion of liberalism, the Wall Street Journal, has reported time and again. So if money is what you really care about, you should never, ever want a Republican at the top.
And for everyone else who voted for Trump: you can’t get something for nothing. If you want government services that provide, e.g., good schools, good roads, safe food, and a clean environment, you have to pay for it.
Furthermore, if you don’t want self-inflicted chaos, don’t vote into the White House a lying, thieving, lazy, ignorant, amoral, huckster.
Let’s just hope it will be possible for the next Democratic administration and Congress to dig this nation and the world out of the mess Trump and the Republicans have indubitably created for all of us.
106
@ALB
A democratic government may be able to undo some of the mess, but when the current government invoked Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, some of the tariffs may be impossible to undo. Let's face it Trump is determined to undo the WTO. Yes, it's not perfect and can be improved. Trump views trade as a zero-sum, win-lose game. He enjoys the power of the leverage created by tariff and his constant public threats to trading partners. Look at the current situation: 140K US steel worker jobs created at the expense of approx 3.2M American farmers on welfare. That should make you pause.
10
Anyone who can read knows trade wars end badly, often leading to real wars. Of course, it helps if policy makers can read. With Trump, Pompeo and Bolton I have serious doubts if they can read sufficiently to understand the lessons of history. Their sole concern is gaining and maintaining power through a semblance of winning.
Now that most people realise the illusion of prosperity has been achieved through unprecedented debt (same as if someone lent me $1 billion to buy mansions and yachts to make people believe I'm a millionaire), so too will the U.S. economy crash as it did in 2008-9. Already global economies are crashing under the burden of trade wars and debt inflation, and possibly the one that crashes last will crash hardest.
100
@Hamid Varzi,
You are exactly right. Stock prices have been going up due to stock buy-backs, which have been financed by corporate borrowing enabled by low interest rates.
It is exactly like borrowing millions so you can dress and drive like a millionaire.
The US equity bubble is large and just waiting for the trigger to deflate it. And the only question is, will it deflate slowly or collapse with a bang?
14
@Hamid Varzi And, on that bugaboo "globalization," it's a broken record but it needs to be repeated: "Globalization" is driven by competitiveness, meaning producing same quality goods cheaper in one location vs. another. Tariff walls can be built to try to artificially skew price differentials, but are not a permanent fix. In fact, world economic growth, including U.S. economic growth, is driven by trade. "Trade wars" are a throwback to nationalism impulses that led to the two world wars in the first half of the 20th century. We are now 75 years into the future since those times. "Nation vs. nation" thinking, and notions of "winners" vs. "losers," are mindsets of the past, but regrettably are fixed in our current president's head.
24
@Hamid Varzi
(same as if someone lent me $1 billion to buy mansions and yachts to make people believe I'm a millionaire)
You need to talk to Vladimir Putin for that kind of loan...ask for same deal he gave Trump.
12
So you have to ask, who in the Trump administration is taking the short on major world economies and how are they doing it this time? I’m pretty sure when he took office he needed the definition of tariff explained to him. Or maybe this is continuation of Bannon’s burn it all to the ground ideology.
4
American politics are too predictable and too easily purchased; we’ve had a recession after every Republican President since Woodrow Wilson “unwittingly” signed our Democratic Republic away to “a bunch of wealthy bankers” with the Federal Reserve Act in 1914.
Except now we have a President who can’t pretend to have a wit about selling our dollar and Democratic Republic to the Bank of China.
4
Some people are like ostriches with their heads stuck in the sand. None so blind as those who cannot see.
The facts are in the statistics; an inverted yield curve.
3
It took Trump, with his deficit busting tax cut for the rich and his insane trade wars, less than 3 years to kill Obama's economy and to start a new recession. Who knows how long this recession will last or how bad it'll get, but it'll be up to the next president to clean up the mess that Trump has created.
6
The only certainty is that Trump's inner circle is profiting.
5
Simply the wild fluctuations of what is a bubble stock market who can see that its about to pop. The overwhelming majority of traders are overpaid ignorami that know little about economics markets monetary policy or pretty much anything else they are simply a herd of that is trying to follow the wave. Since the election of Trump (Ignoramus Maximus) they have piled up debt by artificially buoying a market that had sound fundamentals but boring growth. Now as expected and accelerated by our Ignoramus Maximus policies of alienating our friends and rocking the markets by tweet they are facing the abyss of economic reality. Welcome to the ride down the black hole created by our own hand. Hopefully given the limitations imposed on bank lending the crater will not be catastrophic like the last time, however, in the process a lot of people will lose their shirts!
2
The single biggest threat to the world economy and the U.S. economy is Donald Trump. Trump's drunk driver style economic policies are not based on any sound ecomonic rationale. They are a result of his ignorance and his malignant narcissism. Furthermore, there is no one in the Trump Administration with valid economic credentials.
7
Long term the USA will end up like China if it doesn't join international agreements to improve the environment in their nation. You need very strict environmental laws on industrial businesses so they don't pollute the rivers and streams and lakes and oceans. You need inspectors to check up on them so they don't dump all their chemicals in rivers etc.
Big business needs to pay to clean up any mess it makes and fined and taken to court otherwise government debt will go up because the government will be left to clean up the mess.
No accountability by big business as all they're interested in is profits so you need laws to regulate the vultures.
2
I don't understand why american businesses are having to scramble to find replacements for their Chinese pipeline? Wouldn't it have been prudent to have invested long ago more conservatively in other countries as their suppliers?
It seems to me this situation with China growing more and more of a threat to our trade situation was nothing that hadn't been expected? Has their buying up great quantities of our currency been a great part of the devil's bargain?
💰
6
@Arthur
Some of those “Chinese” companies are “American” companies with an HQ wherever the tax breaks are. Like Apple.
@Schedule 1 Remedy
Thanks for the reply. I still don't understand why they have allowed their eggs to be in nearly one basket (CHINA), or is that a mere false impression I'm getting from reading mostly the NYT and listening to Public Radio/TV?
Trump is the wild card here. Who knows what he'll do from one moment to the next. He's clearly unhinged from rational consensus about trade or the economy. He has no interest in thinking long term or working with allies to leverage policy goals. He cares about winning the 24 hour news cycle, mostly conservative media. And Trump has to keep ratcheting up the distractions as his trade war stumbles and impeachment looms.
So what rational business can make major investments that take years to pay off. Some are no doubt spreading some offshore production to more sites to hedge their bets, but those facilities may take years to come on line. Some may hope Trump quickly goes away.
Soon consumers may start to act more defensively, limiting discretionary spending. Those with resources may choose to wait on major credit purchases for items like cars and homes, expecting better rates in a downturn.
It's hard to argue Trump ever did much productive in his private business dealings. Mostly he left behind a string of failed business ventures and unpaid debts. He never expected to be president but had the ego and narcissism to stumble along, enabled by a feckless and fearful Republican congress.
So now the world waits to see if Trump will makes things worse or really, really worse. Meanwhile he remains determined to double down on lies, play to his base, and never admit a mistake. The economic uncertainty only mounts by the day, and US treasuries look like a safe haven.
4
If the USA is one of the top oil producing nations in the world then how come the government has such a large debt and there is an inverted yield curve. So much for the trickle down effect of tax cuts for the rich - not trickling down into clean drinking water for all of the USA or better infrastructure.
6
"The only thing to fear is fear itself".
The U.S. Economy is on remarkably solid ground. Consumer spending is strong. Unemployment is low. The stock market has done very, very well in recent months, and I fully expect the momentum to continue.
Yes, the world economy is inter-connected, and the Trade War does dampen the prospects of various companies in various sectors, but the United States has unique economic positioning factors. First and foremost, our currency is the Reserve currency. Furthermore, we have incredibly vast oil reserves and we are the top producing oil nation in the entire world. Moreover, we have a robust educational system (which though very imperfect, as seen in the student debt crisis), is the envy of many nations.
I am bullish on America.
1
@Raphael. Well, I wouldn’t say envy of the world, maybe just some.
After all, you do have people dying because they can’t afford insulin. Old people going blind because they can’t afford glaucoma drops and probably don’t get cataract surgery only because they got cataracts.
Some urban places can’t drink their water. And I heard that they shut down a High School somewhere in Chicago so those kids just don’t go to school which in some places in the world would be seen as seriously wrong.
Gun violence.
Money is an empty construct until you give it meaning. What you do with your money is how people actually judge you by.
3
We're going down, folks. No use looking at day-to-day gyrations, unless you have too much money in the stock market (you should not). Know your risk tolerance. Create a portfolio appropriately.
Oh, and vote Democrat and rail against the electoral college at every opportunity.
Otherwise, get on with your life.
4
There has been fluctuation in the market over the last six months, but each time it drops, it bounces back. Market volatility is measured by the VIX, which is at 21 and dropping. 21 is high average. Dropping is good news.
Low long term bond rates are a sign of caution. There are all kinds of reasons for caution. Recession is only one of them.
Putting the stock market on the front page when nothing particularly unusual is happening is tendentious. I checked the Post and the LA Times -- neither has the market on the front page. CNBC's top story is that the market is rebounding.
This just is not a panic situation where market followers are selling off in fear of a recession. But if you want a recession to bring down Trump -- even though millions would suffer -- you profess panic and try to spook others. Totally irresponsible.
2
@michjas Put it another way: if you want political chaos and instability, install a con man with a proven track record of bankruptcy, fraud, lawsuits and non-payment in charge of our country.
Go ahead and lecture us about "irresponsibility". The irony is delicious.
4
@michjas Is this your first time here?
Pssst...this just in; the Times happens to be based in NYC, which is where Wall Street and the Exchange are. You know, New York, world’s financial capital, any of this ringing a bell?
This also just in: China’s GDP dropped. So did England’s and Germany’s—last quarter, into negative territory.
The primary reason? Laughing boy jacking around with the world economy in chaotic, confused, contradictory ways. And no new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. And some fool pulling out of TPP. And Brexit, now led by a similar fool. And the fading of the sugar-rush tax cuts, with nothing real to show for it by way of jobs, wages or investment. And a mushrooming Federal deficit. And a dimwit trade war or three. And a potential war with Iran. And a...and a...
Nice try on the Deep State guff, though.
1
Rev donnie up, call broker, place bet, cash chips.
Repeat as often as you can.
6
Cassandra here reflecting on the irony of hindsight when first hearing of the coming presidential elections in the year 2014. 'This is not the time for a changing-of-the guards; in fact it would be dangerous, and we do not have any candidates of the caliber of President Obama, etc., etc.' and look where we are now in August 2019.
Wait, let's not whine but be fair. Apparently, to the ordinary citizen, "The Economy is booming". Not in my seasonal town where the stores keep closing and large companies moving away.
Earlier, an attempt took place to divert Messrs. Badger, Fox & Otter with the tale of 'Let Them Eat Cake', erroneously attributed to the doomed Queen of France when the French populace was starving. Bread was more expensive in those days.
An economic trade war has been in the forecast predicted by responsible experts since the 90s. The leaders of the two world superpowers now at odds; the dismantling of Europe; East Asia struggling to keep its composure and the global financial markets in a melt-down.
We have reached 'High Noon', and barring a global international economic emergency forum to set matters, with cool heads and steady minds, we are not going to be merrily rowing our boat down the river in the near future.
The 'Follow the Money' slogan needs stronger leadership in our nation; we missed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Alliance and are hardly prepared for another recession.
Atlas is calling for action. Unite.
4
Traders are much more interested in the volume of trades than they are about whether the trades are sell or buy.
Commissions baby, commissions.
2
Do you get the feeling that neither knows what they're doing?
6
Time and again, NYT and its readership are so deeply immersed into hating Trump that they apparently lost their mind and openly call for the catastrophe here in order to get Trump out of the office. Aside the obvious shamefulness and deplorability of that attitude, isn't it sort of treachery to so obviously root for a foreign country to affect the political situation here? And destroy livelihood, jobs, economy etc. merely in order to get some one from their side in White House? How low can you fall?
2
@ss Objectively reporting on stock and bond market declines during the Trump presidency is not the same as calling or wishing for a recession to occur.
15
@ss
You've got to be kidding!
Trump is a disaster for world markets and that's why people like you voted for him.
The NYT and other credible news sources--obviously Fox News is not one of them--merely report the news.
Stop killing the messengers and sit back and enjoy what you and millions of others voted for.
2
Well, some good news: given that Louis Gohmert, Steve King and Trump are pretty much the floor of human stupidity, we still have several thousand feet to go.
2
I’m wondering how many cheering Trumpists would be all happy if they were on a plane that changed altitude like the market has this year.
14
I wonder how much profit the .01% will make in the next world wide downturn?
Trickle up seems to be doing just fine.
18
What’s the point of Trump’s schoolyard antic - linking Hong Kong to trade? Other than his penchant for discourse anarchy, there is none. We already know that he is a loose canon and so do the Chinese. In this case he is playing Russian Roulette with our and the global economy.
22
Is it possible that the uptick in retail sales represents an effort by consumers to get ahead of price increases? Some of us have already noticed that our grocery bills are higher. And most Americans know their electronic products very well might come from China. Why not buy that new cell phone now if we believe it will be more expensive later? Trump’s greatest contributions in all realms are uncertainty and chaos, which screw up normal ways of anticipating events.
9
Trump constantly underestimates China. China is playing the long game, bent on world domination. It is funding much of the infrastructure in Africa and South America. It is becoming an energy/oil giant. It is investing in AI tech. It owns a huge chunk of the US debt. It is pumping money into US and European real estate, sports teams, even Hollywood. China can withstand Trump's little "trade war" a while longer. Meanwhile, Trump is putting my tax dollars not into improving infrastructure or healthcare here but into a $28 billion welfare program for farmers in red states and a vanity project of a wall that Mexico still isn't paying for. Oh, and I'm sure he's manipulating the stock market with his idiotic tweets for his own personal gain and starting a global recession to boot.
25
“Clueless” is how Trump describes Chairman Powell in his incessant, incoherent and irrational tweet storms.
No sir, it is you who is the clueless one.
Any many times over.
18
Chinese leader has Trump's number. Trump wants to meet one on one. Why? He is an absolute embarrassment to the US with his ignorant, backwards views on economics and all other things. No one respects him.
16
@Kathryn Aguilar
Yeah but Xi could've been entertained by Trump imitating him, like he imitated the Japanese and S.Korean leaders last week at his fund raiser on Long Island.
More winning
9
Market needs to fall a lot. Fed needs to raise interest rates. People deserve a choice.. Predatory Capitalism. Neoliberalism, laissez-faire capitalism, enslave the poor capitalism -- whatever you want to call it -- needs the famous checks and balances. People should not be encouraged to gamble or invest their money in a product which has as its ends monopolies (Amazon) and enriching the rich... We don't have a competitive economy-- and we the general public don't really even know who owns what exactly.
We need to reuse (forget the recycle nonsense-- that ship has sailed), buy less, want less, starve the beast as the bulls are wont to say. Thanks to all the presidents from Reagan on who helped create the current mess.. and PS I love tariffs -- we must buy less.
7
I'm not so sure that retail sale is as good an indicator of economic strength as a few years ago. I read from CNBC that retail has lost about 140,000 jobs from January 2017 to March 2019. I also read from WSJ that retail rents are falling.
That sounds consistent with the rise of e-commerce. And the spoil of retail goes to fewer workers. Also, doesn't the tariff means more $ is spent for the same amount of stuff?
For example
10 years ago - Retail sale is $100.
Retailer takes $50 of which $4 is profit (think B&N)
Wholesaler takes $25 of which $4 is profit
Manufacturer takes $25 of which $10 is profit
Thus $82 of the $100 flows to the rest of the economy.
Now - Retail sale is $110
Tariff takes $10
Retailer takes $50 of which $25 is profit (think Amazon)
Wholesaler takes $25 of which $4 is profit
Manufacturer takes $25 of which $10 is profit
Thus $61 of the $110 flows to the rest of the economy.
That's not necessarily better.
2
At a time when we need the best possible president to deal with multiple global crises, we have the worst possible president--one who is incapable of understanding, let alone tackling, those crises.
10
Are we tired of winning yet ?
10
This guy went bankrupt with a casino. A casino!
Now he’s supposedly steering the dialogue between the world’s two largest economies?
Look out below. Trump’s biggest bankruptcy of all will be all of us.
23
Looks like the cat hit something on the way down today, a slight bounce.
3
Even if China suffers thru this trade war, history has shown it (and its people, who see it as caused by the US) is more willing to take the pain than American corporations, stockholders and voters, who now have the majority of their nest eggs in stocks.
Trump’s eagerness for a ‘deal’, to the point of staying mum on Hong Kong, further demonstrates his weak hand.
You can only make the kind of deal you want if you are willing to walk away with no deal
6
As someone nearing retirement, I typically check the stock market looking for encouraging signs about my nest egg. I have decided, however, that the most valuable thing I can leave my children and grandchildren is a United States free and clear of Donald Trump. I'm willing to take a substantial hit to my portfolio if it will clarify the vision of those Trump loyalists who continue to trust and believe in him. Few of my friends still cling to any notion that Trump is capable of caring for anyone but himself. Hate-mongers will remain after Trump is gone, but still, the sooner this charicature of a human being is gone, the better.
35
Stocks fluctuate because that s what professional traders do, they use news and current events to cause stocks to move so that they can buy on down-swings and sell on up-swings. This is the traders at work.
4
@MIKEinNYC Yes, but paving the road for the ones who are the most adept at making oodles of cash because they know how to is another thing. This to me is exactly what 45 is doing. He uses his presidency to achieve ends that in any other instance would be considered against SEC regulations. I have no doubt that he is unethical, why stop here? He always has his "reasons" to fall back on. The companies and traders who are at the top of their game win---anyone else need not apply. If there is a crash, at least many people he fortified will have their gazillions already made. Won't affect them----no siree.
2
Huge and growing deficits. Increased debt of college graduates. Stagnating wages. Companies that engage in stock buy-backs, rather than increasing wages. And they are surprised at the incoming recession?
17
Successful business requires stability--Trump's rule is the opposite of that.
16
The Obama economy officially ended Jan 1, 2018 ('tax cut' went into effect). The economy has been headed to the ditch ever since.
1) the 'upward wealth redistribution' (aka tax cut) bill went into effect:
1.1) corp 'savings' went for C-suite bonuses and stock buybacks, not investment and wages
1.2) massive govt borrowing (mostly from China) ballooning the national debt.
1.3) sugar high due to billions of borrowed miney injected into the economy.
2) huge national sales/VAT (aka tariffs) levied on to the middle class, placing drag on consumer spending. Recall two thirds of GDP is consumer spending,
3) Revoke Volcker rule, thus re-enabling proprietary trading by a handful of rich guys with access to gamble with FDIC backed depositor's savings.
4) Stock price chaos caused by erratic tweeting.
There is more, but I'll stop here.
I've been writing this same comment since diaper don got hold of power.
16
@oldBassGuy
Don't forget that China and Russia are divesting their U.S. dollars from the central banks and investing in gold instead. They are encouraging other countries to do the same. If that happens to any significant degree the U.S. will no longer be a superpower.
4
Something is fundamentally wrong when markets move on insubstantial remarks.
It shows the trade war is taking center stage and that there is no data, no algorithm that can pierce the fog of Trump’s trade war, so the drips and drabs indicating the mindset of the parties matters the most.
8
Since so much of trading is now conducted by algorithms, which are still not smart enough to nuance the news, I wonder how much of these swings depicts a tug of war between automated trading and the night sweats of the panicky plutocrats who can read a newspaper.
12
Sounds like China is driving this car while Trump throws a fit in the back seat.
22
@Panthiest
While republicans siphon gasoline from the gas tank to throw Molotov’s at those that oppose them.
3
Hey, .01 percent and you corporations, are you rich enough yet? Unfathomable greed and this administration’s sheer incompetence and lack of IQ is on the brink of ruining the world economy, just as Reagan and Bush did before them. Rotten to the core.
16
What has he accomplished with China besides getting favorable treatment for his and his daughters companies.
19
I’m not sure down 800 one day and then up 40 the next day qualifies as a “whipsaw”.
29
Imagine the rush Trump must be experiencing knowing that his very words, his whims, can can roil the markets. What more could a narcissist want?
Trump is like a child with a new toy determined to see how much stress that toy can take until it breaks. And it’s always better when the toy belongs to someone else.
26
This helps China more than us? Sounds delusional, but that's what he thinks and that's why we, unfortunately, are going to lose this trade war big-time. The Christmas surrender exposed the weak position and clueless strategy of Trump and the incompetent advisers and sycophants that he surrounds himself with.
16
Rising or falling, someone is making money on the market. I would bet that many of those making it are the friends of Donald Trump, and that the losers are not. This could be the ultimate insider trading action Wall Street has ever seen.
16
Trump, this is YOUR fault.Drop the tariff war, rejoin TPP,get back into Iran agreement..in fact reverse every decision you have made.Actually see Hugh from Maryland.
8
So Trump ran as a great “businessman” when in fact he inherited .5B dollars from daddy, squandered it all with multiple bankruptcies, has been sued about 1000 times, brags about not paying taxes, is barely literate, doesn’t study or read, not even daily intelligence briefings, and is a multiple time wife cheater, draft dodger, racist, and xenophobic by all accounts from his statements and tweets.
And to to top it all off he has lied over 6000 recorded times, obstructed justice, separated babies from parents, started trade wars that cost us all money, gave the wealthy a tax cut, increased US debt to historical levels, and has a goal to end healthcare as we know it.
But the icing on the cake is that he weakened the Western alliance, gave NATO intel to Russians in the Oval Office the day after he fired the FBI director (who didn’t promise loyalty to him), saluted to dictator Kim Jong Un, and been on the record that he believes Putin over US and NATO intel that Russia cyberattacked our US election system and refuses to protect the US from another cyber attack.
I don’t get how anyone can vote for this certifiably unqualified mean spirited man or anyone who supports him. He has ruined the GOP party forever.
25
Trump has ruined the GOP... until an “open borders” Democrat takes office. The lack of intelligence, and courage, from both parties is very depressing.
3
"Work humanely with Hong Kong first!" What does this man know about humanity?
9
Our economy was already on the rebound and headed in a positive trajectory when Trump became President. Obama had already seen us through and brought us back from a recession caused by the previous administration. All Trump has done is destabilize and cause chaos in everything he touches. His tax cuts for the rich and tariffs are not helping anyone. I really hope we can find our way back out of this mess before our wrecking ball of a POTUS does too much more damage.
22
Last night was spent at the campground at Honeyman State Park on the Oregon coast. It was built by the CCC during the Great Depression. Rather than tax cuts that favor the rich, how about investing in infrastructure that benefits the rest of us?
21
@Caveman 007 the CCC projects like the Blue Ridge Parkway, that brings billions to the area. The Interstate highway system, the (at one time) finest public universities in the world....I could go on, but the "horrors" of socialism are just too much. Snark off.
4
Earnings drive stock valuations via P/E multiples. The Shiller P/E ratio, based on a time-adjusted 10-year "trailing" earnings multiple, is currently at 29.4, which is well above its historical average of 16.1. Also, for the first quarter of 2019, S&P 500 average earnings were down -0.21%; while for the second quarter of 2019, these S&P 500 earnings were down by about -0.70% from the same period of 2018. From past historical precedents, such current US high market valuations require high present quarterly earnings, and very robust future earnings forecasts by management to maintain such high valuations.
Also, at the earnings announcements presented by management, the frequency of managers citing the trade dispute as impacting their companies performance increased by 41% at the 2nd quarter's announcements versus the first.
A "virtuous cycle" has been created by: The poor relative performance of stock markets globally and the very low yields from US debt that have forced investors to funnel money into US stocks. And, the very low cost of debt, or interest rates, have funneled easy money into stock buybacks. When this equity source of corporate funds is replaced by cheap debt, fewer shares outstanding result in higher EPS ratios. And, these higher EPS ratios propel P/E multiples upward, while supplying a source of funds via buybacks to reinvest in the market, and help to levitate it.
[8/15/2019 Th 11:00 am Greenville NC]
4
@John Joseph Laffiteau MS in Econ
Not sure I understand all that, but it sounds like a swirling vicious circle down the toilet. Am I wrong?
4
Remember working for a Fortune 500 company while attending college and Wal-Mart was always the feared entity because they controlled so much of the company's revenue stream with their high purchasing and distribution power of our product. If they stopped buying our product our company would go "bust" and so would many others. Worked for Gillette and their other brand categories in Marketing.
Similarly realize this situation with tariff's has a huge global impact because it does not take a lot to push the market and world over the edge into chaos these days. The power lies with major producing countries, companies, and billionaire people and when they make a chess board move, look out world.
8
Oh, so the stock market tanks yesterday and today lo and behold, the Commerce department said that retail - which has been tanking for years - had "stronger than expected earnings." Yeah, I'm going to believe them.
15
And today it's "start to recover." Yesterday it was "fall on the floor and writhe." Tomorrow it will be "leap from a seventh-floor window," and Monday "rise from the grave and eat a hearty breakfast." Trump plays with the market like a gleefully malicious toddler with a toy. But the stakes are real and high. When the music stops, who will be standing? And how did one man get such power?
27
@jb It's not just Trump in this case, this is the way the short term stock market reports always work, with meaningless fluctuations eagerly reported. Every once in a while something actually changes in the real economy, and the stock market actually reflects it. But that isn't these hourly and daily fluctuations.
1
@John Bergstrom, these aren't wind-from-the-northeast changes. Trump is announcing hundreds of billions in tarriffs one day, and adding "but not till January" the next. This is him, ripping up trade agreements with allies and making demands they can't and won't meet, with our own products and jobs on the line. Our farmers get the shaft, real threats to their livelihoods--will there be a bailout? The drama is real. The losses are real. The consequences are real. The pain we deal China--and for what?--will come back to us, yes. We play musical chairs, but Trump is making up the tune. And he doesn't know or care what will happen next. He'll have his mansion, and all the cheeseburgers one man can eat.
2
It seems to me that almost all the thinking about China is not strategic. There is some short term problems but the big stuff will be the long run issues. Xi has used some anti-American sentiment to unite his people, so has Iran, Mexico, N. Korea, Russia, etc. If Xi gives in he will be unpopular, if Obrador give up too much he will be unpopular, etc. Hating the US for being the Hegemon is balanced by the projection of our Culture and perception of fairness compared to alternatives. We still have that suasion if we don't mess it up, and that is the long term solution. Sure negotiate hard, but insist on Fairness and openness for all to see, but unilateral attacks will only make enemies. When China becomes twice our size, we will become their Iran
4
Much easier said than done, but individuals and corporations need to make an effort to not be so easily affected by the comings and goings of the financial markets. Sure, your momentary “value” may rise or fall, but your life still needs to be lived.
I once heard it said that even though a hospital’s stock may skyrocket, it doesn’t necessarily mean the patients are doing any better.
5
@Andre Hoogeveen, let the stock fall long enough--and it may mean one nurse for twenty patients instead of four. It may mean higher prices for the surgery you need. Or no hospital at all where there was one. People lost jobs and homes when the housing market frauds crashed the markets, people who had no connection to any of that market at all. The financial system is a web, a big one. I hope we don't have to find out its complexities when it comes undone.
5
Why do we keep seeing these front page stock market reports about daily or hourly fluctuations in response to what one person said, and then what another person said? To the extent that there is a relationship between the money people are making in the stock market, and what is happening in the real economy, it doesn't have anything to do with these speculative sales and purchases based on the day's news.
4
@John Bergstrom
Because the NYT and the majority of its readers have a pejorative view of our booming economy and they would like to see it falter to make Trump look bad at any cost. Same with Immigration and China Talks or basically anything else he is trying to accomplish that will help our country.
@Alternate Reality, nothing he is trying to accomplish will help our country because immigrants and trade deficits are just scapegoats for what corporate America is doing to us.
5
@Alternate Reality: Well, no, that's not it. But thanks for commenting.
1
Tweet UP, tweet DOWN, just make sure you tell your friends in time so they can act timely, O and make sure you keep an eye on the fee you get from this ofcourse. I geuss they call this a Trump Name license fee as that would make it fully legit.
Whipsaw is a great metaphore, as indeed it needs 2 to handle this.
4
The term "whipsaw" just leads me to further believe that the stock market is a joke. A very bad joke, which enriches the traders while impoverishing the masses. We need to burn Wall Street to the ground and start over with a more equitable system.
14
@Chris from PA it always enriches traders, but only impoverish those who hold stocks. Besides that it is no qualification at all about the "real" economy.
It is a virtual "make believe I might or might loose game" played by professional jugglers.
3
@Ko, there are a lot of people with retirement funds and others who have been forced into the market who surely wish you were right about that. The real economy depends on the market a great deal, as has been the doing of marketeers, politicians, bankers, and such for a long time. They know we "can't" let them crash--see 2008 about that.
5
@Chris from PA
For all the talk of sophisticated logic and computation driving investment decisions these days, it is actually proof of irrational and emotional decision making. I don't see any fundamental logic that would create such wild flip-flops day-day.
A better explanation is brainless herd-mentality of an investment crowd that is guided by dimwit twitter rants and CNBC shows.
2
Whipsaw, in this case, means market instability.
A big reason for big drops in the stock market.
Donald J. Trump is the personification of instability.
It's going to get worse as long as he is the president.
We should all rewatch the movie, "The Big Short".
Yes, I know it's just a movie, but there IS some truth in there about what happened to our economy in 2008.
Does anyone believe that the powers that be are attempting to prop up the economy artificially?
Does anyone believe that made the ultimate outcome in 2008 worse than it should have been?
Are they REALLY just trying to get consumers through this year's holiday season?
REALLY?
Who did I say IS the personification of instability?
6
Let’s just summarize the current situation. The Fed is lowering interest rates and financial markets are volatile all in anticipation of a recession caused solely by the idiotic and erratic policies of our own President.
37
@Baldwin
I doubt we will have a recession. Once the China Tariffs get settled and they will the market will continue its rise.
Stock up and think long term and not so politcally biased.
1
@JS What goes up, must come down. Same for stock markets 7 - 9 yr cycle.
I think Trump is now influencing it down, so maybe next year in election mode it might go up and he can do his usual song & dance "see I fixed what I broke first" .
Economy, the market, stocks it is all emotion and perception, so yes politics aswell.
3
@Ko
I dont disagree with you but I dont anticipate a large downturn, a small correction then up we go.
China is the issue right now. Whats happening is painful but it must happen. We'll see who blinks first. The Chinese Communist Government is the biggest threat we face in the future. Sorry readers not Russia.
Were we to ask for a meeting of the G 8, who would be stupid enough to believe our word would be kept?
The S&P could be lower when he leaves office than when he entered.
4
Is America Great Again yet?
4
You can put it this way, trump has whipsawed his way being president. After 2 1/2 years his blade is dull, ripping thru morality, trade, debt, allies, lack of truth, environment. It's impossible to go thru all that trump has harmed our Nation. he's good for one thing, corporate greed and lying to the world.
11
@al
Not so fast, he still comes up with new atrocities on a regular basis...latest being gutting the endangered species act. He and his henchmen are phenomenal.
2
Stocks and bonds no longer seem to follow any odds/they have become the playthings of fiduciary gods/Traders in a frenzy know not where to turn for help/they're sagging in deep melancholy/ like shipwrecked strands of kelp/Should tariffs multiply some more/and upset their frail skiff/I think the traders will jump off the nearest, highest cliff.
1
Some people likely have advance knowledge of these apparent random changes in Trump's position on the economy and trade wars and are benefiting from it. The matter needs to be investigated by the AG under a new president after Jan 2021.
17
Volatile markets is how inside traders make huge money.
Inside trading is illegal everywhere except in congress.
When one makes money whether the market is on the way up or way down (shorting), volatility is your friend.
15
The "adults" have left the Trump administration, and fiscal policy is set by toadies and incompetents. This is what any rational person would expect.
This is also just what Putin & Co. expected in their successful shopping expedition snagging them the GOP and Trump, who are hastening the demise of the U.S.A. and the Western Alliance.
11
Independent from China's trial to benefit from the world market, the real problem right now is fake Trump's weather- vane's capricious bravado, the nonsensical zero-sum game he claims to defend. Can't he see we live in an inter-dependent globalized enterprise where collaboration and mutual assurance to keep markets stable is the way to go? It seems to me that, given the tremendous powers the U.S. presidency confers, no one ever thought we would end having a most unscrupulous, irresponsible, and arrogant bully in-chief...intent in destroying what took years to build?
3
“ ... leaving certain Chinese goods off the (tariff) list until December, like laptops, cellphones and toys,” all populate Christmas gifts.
So, Trump does understand his tariffs are sales taxes on Americans. Which, by inference, more than suggests he knows he’s lying ever time he claims the Chinese are paying them.
Lying repeatedly to the American people is at the very least a misdemeanor. High crimes? For those, go to the mueller report.
Nov. 3, 2020.
8
@Tomás It depends upon whether importers raise prices or eat the tariffs or find other suppliers. You can't show me evidence that Trump's trade war with China has thus far raised prices for Americans in any significant way thus we've seen no jump in inflation.
Meanwhile China is losing income and closing factories and has been forced to devalue the yuan thereby making every citizen of China poorer.
China is paying and I might add paying out the kazoo. The sad thing is that previous administratioins sat back and did nothing while China gamed the USofA.
As to Trump lying, that's just tendentious. EVERY President lies and lies regularly. One might say that it is part of the job description. Remember "If you like your doctor..."
@Barooby
Of course tariffs raise prices. It's ridiculous to claim that businesses would just "eat" higher costs.
The reason that so far the impact was not as visible is that the trump administration has specifically targeted less visible areas for initial rounds for this very reason, on top of phasing them in to coincide with election cycles. According to Goldman Sachs, when looking at the targeted CPI's, the impact has been dramatic already, but the best is yet to come.
And, oh the old "all do it"... There is absolutely no comparison on how many lies trump-the-liar spreads on a daily basis, compared to any president. It's in the stratosphere, well documented and not an opinion at all.
1
@Tomás Ofcourse he knows and understands. He aint stupid, dont mix "acting stupid on stage" with "being stupid". That's what got him in the WH.
1
For those of us paying attention the headlight on the train's engine that's about to go off the rails was visible two years ago. Hold on, this train wreck ain't gonna be pretty.
7
This is the result of electing a child to do an adult's job.
11
China manufactures a load of trash that world of today and
tomorrow doesn't need, but seems to be based on what the western consumer wants to make their life meaningful.
However, a stable global economy is needed to transition our world into one that will literally save the planet.
So - Trump needs to stop this palaver and the tweets, and his nonsense and actually - resign so that someone can take the helm and guide us through these rocky and uncertain times.
(Of course, his ego won't let him do that.)
1
Take back the tax cuts for the 1%. Invest in infrastructure and green energy. New leadership essential. Elect a new president to do this. "Take care of the things that remain." - Bob Dylan (who borrowed this from the Book of Revelation).
6
Maybe Trump should call Obama for advice. He has lots of experience rescuing America from GOP economic policies.
43
Why should the stock market be any different from the rest of us when it comes to being whipsawed? One day the president tells us new tariffs are coming in September and the next day he tells us they are coming after Christmas holiday shopping. One day he tells congressional leaders he will sign any immigration deal they agree to and a few days later he says he won't sign anything. In mid-June he tells all Americans that great new healthcare plans are coming in a couple of months and two days later Mitch McConnell informs Trump and the rest of the country there are no plans to address healthcare legislation this year.
We've all been told that the stock market hates uncertainty. Join the club, stock markets. We all have to endure it in virtually every facet of our lives and you are no different.
11
Trump is 100% responsible for this mess. He inherited a solid but slow-rising economy and stock market, formed out of the Great Recession that Obama inherited from George Bush and his Republican administration.
With breathtaking arrogance and foolishness, our current president started to almost immediately shock our economic systerm with one bad decision after another, in crude attempts to goose up performance of the economy by favoring corporations over people and wealth over those of modest means. The trade war was the last straw, and now the entire world will suffer for the president's greed, incompetence, viciousness and ignorance.
224
@Hugh ~
While the economic problems might be very severe I think the real damage is that we might never be able to restore the strength and cooperation we had with our allies.
If only for political reasons, because they would face a constituency that now distrusts the entire Unite STates because of what one person has done in 30 months.
45
@jhanzel
" The trade war was the last straw, and now the entire world will suffer for the president's greed, incompetence, viciousness and ignorance."
That is the immediate result of Trump's actions.
". . . the real damage is that we might never be able to restore the strength and cooperation we had with our allies."
That is the long-term result of Trump's actions.
30
@jhanzel
Agree with you on pretty much everything, but for one point. This was not something that one person did - Trump enjoys a ton of support from a sizable majority of the Republican Party that has fallen into an incredibly backward state, and who have been voting for progressively more retrograde candidates across a variety of government offices. It's not just Trump - it's also the Tea Party - and before Trump it was W.
Our allies should be rightfully wary because these voters are still too foolish to not vote for similar (or worse) candidates. And one should even be concerned that they would actively support Trump if he loses his reelection bid and then tries to hold on to power in some way. It pains me to think this could happen in America.
8
The brilliant investors on Wall Street appear to have ADHD and inflated egos, much like the current occupant of the Oval Office. Adults of the world are at the mercy of spoiled, out-of-control children.
3
nobody who has been paying attention is surprised by any of this. trump is not only going to bankrupt the country, he is well on his way to facilitating a bankruptcy of the world economy.
34
@Angel This is not possible. One man doesn't have that power, and there are too many forces which will resist destruction. You are being hysterical.
@David Henry
At some point, I would have agreed with that but let's wait and see. A lot that I thought was unthinkable has been proven wrong in the last few years.
I'm surprised markets held up for so long, considering the isolation Trump has driven us into. Now, as he usually does, he's trying to shift the blame to his own pick for the Federal Reserve chair, Jay Powell. The world economy is slowing because of uncertainty caused by 1) Trump's inane tariffs and 2) Trump-clone Boris Johnson's inane Brexit or bust.
We don't have a solution available until 2020, when we can get rid of Trump if we're smart. It amazes me, however, that farmers still support him after he has ruined their markets. Perhaps they deserve what they get, along with all those industrial workers and coal miners whose jobs didn't come back.
20
I keep saying "follow the money". Who benefits from this up and down roller coaster of a stock market. People who can play the market on its ups and downs. Short selling etc. is how you make fast, large sums of money in a short period of time. Trump is a dream to these people. He signals he is going to do something that will cause a downturn and then backs off and stocks come back up. "Buy low, Sell High". It's a game to these people. In the meantime Rome is burning and they are all playing their fiddles.
24
China entered the global economy as the worlds workbench and had a good go of it. The problem is they never made products for their country, did anything to better their people. Party leaders and a handful of elites kept the bounty for themselves and instead of investing in their country found enclaves around the world to stash their fortunes. Travel westward from their Chinas coast and it's not within the first hundred miles that you begin to see how primitive and remote the country and people are. Those which have wealth in the country know firsthand what it's like living without, the political and economic times are that new.
The United States and Europe allowed China to grow out of hand. Administrations didn't want to deal with an economic situation that would be hard, long fought and difficult. They practiced the sleeping dog method of dealing with a problem. Trump could have very well done the same, he certainly wasn't the cause of this debacle, but he didn't, he confronted it head on. That's part of the job of being President that recent holders of the office turned away from. Being liked was more important than being right.
If the United States is having problems having fair trade with China so is every other country that deals with them. If the United States won't trade with them, neither will other world economies. Xi knows that.
3
@Kurt Pickard
What China are you talking about? The one I know has lifted hundreds of millions of people into the middle class over the past decades. Yes travel to the interior, it's still tough. But that first hundred miles along the coast was practically nothing 50 years ago. Name a place in Tennessee, or any location in America, that has developed a tenth as much as Pudong in that time.
Regarding allowing them to grow out of hand: It's not anyone's job to keep China down. They have a right to develop as much as anyone else and have done a great job at it. It's up to us to watch out for our own interests, but remember that our capitalist Wall Street was helping to lead the charge in developing China, and Walmart and the American consumer backed them 100%.
Lastly, not every country is having problems trading with them. Germany, in spite of forced technology transfers, has a huge current account surplus with China because they focus on quality and things that the Chinese want to buy.
2
@TJGM
I've spent several years living, traveling and doing business in China so I feel that qualifies me to make such comments regarding their economy. TN is not at issue here.
The US got punch drunk with the low labor cost in China and didn't anticipate the future threats to our economy. As you correctly pointed out its not anyone's job to keep China down just as it's not the job of our government to ensure that China's economy prospers at the expense of ours.
No one is denying China's right to develop their economy; we are however, denying them the right to develop at the expense of others.
Germany's trade surplus with China is fast waining. BMW, VW, Audi and Mercedes Benz are all now being made in China. China does not need Germany to exist. They do need the US because of our soybean exports. I guess they could go back to eating rice morning, noon and night.
@Kurt Pickard
Thanks for the response. I've also worked some in China (Architect) and have seen the one-way value transfer difficulties. There is definitely a problem with China trade, but the current administration is making it far worse. Trumps caving-in on the tariff issue regarding Christmas commodities (of all things!) is not a show of strength to the Chinese, as I'm sure you realize as you've worked in China. It betrays the weakness of his resolve and they will use it to undermine our side at every turn. As long as Trump and his team are negotiating we, along with everyone else, we be losers.
Also, just an aside, most of the American soybean imports are used for animal feed. And even after the introduction of western food, my experience has been that they still eat rice in some form at every meal. Lots of carbs, so I usually pick out the meat and veggies.
China has been manipulating its currency for years, and
steals our technology. We Americans live in a disposable society
that seeks instant gratification. We so lack patience that it
appears we would capitulate to China rather than be forced to
endure some temporary economic hardship in order to level
the world trade playing field.
2
@cbarber
They were an apt, eager student.
Seems that we taught them currency manipulation well, via the 'fed', the 'sec', and our stock market paper shuffling.
3
It is clear that Mr. Trump does not know what he is doing or he is intentionally manipulating the market for his own purposes. Who is looking into the profiteering that could be going on?
In either case, he is desperately terrible at his job.
9
Your retirement portfolio is now just a tweet away from destruction.
When did America become a one man show?
We're a de facto authoritarian state now that the Republican senate is simply a rubber stamp?
Bankruptcy number six will be the U.S.
75
Yet Trump’s base continues to cheer. Of course they don’t have retirement portfolios.
Does anyone believe that Trump insider-cronies are not finding ways to profit from these market swings?
23
Jared is the only crony who matters. He needs bailout after bailout in the form of a timely tweet from his FIL. Bless his heart.
1
he is on the road to bankrupting this country the way he has bankrupted his businesses. i'll vote for anyone who is going to save this country from financial and social ruin.
22
I would hope that a Putin-proof majority to oust Individual #1 in 2020 can be assembled without a Trump Recession. But if that's what it takes, so be it.
11
I just don't see that much left of an upside in the markets. With full employment and modest wage gains in the US, I'm not sure if there's much unfulfilled demand. Given the situations in the EU and China, my guess is that regardless of Trump, the stock markets will continue flat or hit a V-shape because of a single event.
1
Trump sure knows his economics. I bet he failed the economics course in college 101. Don’t be a bully to other businesses or countries. It will turn your economy south fast. Since 1945 there has been a bad recession in every Republican administration that has run this country. Why they keep getting support to follow the same failed plans shows the GOP supporters have smaller brains than the 3million more of us who supported Hilary. We need to cancel building that budget buster wall of Trumps which the nine states surrounding Mexico said is not needed.
17
@D.j.j.k.
They have differently configured brains for sure, as has has been recently researched and qualified through MRI studies. Generally, conservatives have a larger amygdala, which translates into emotional responses (mostly manifest through fear), as opposed to more cerebral and rational responses of those more liberal.
6
@D.j.j.k.
What about the "brains" who didn't vote or voted 3rd party despite repeated warnings that doing so would lead to exactly what we have now?
9
Here's a better question: Why do you insist on referring to them as a Grand Old Party?
Either tell me what's so G about the OP of yours, or just call them by their name.
I'm rooting for Trump to fail no matter what the cost.
13
Remember, too, that China hold loans on some (unknown to me) portion of our debt. Think about this, DJT, before you continue playing with fire.
7
@LHB
China holds about $1.3 Trillion of our US debt. Americans hold over $14 Trillion.
If China were to try to tank US debt, they would be damaging their own holdings. The way they would have to do that is to sell their bond holdings at a discount in the market, not demand repayment.
In addition, US debt is not "callable." It is issued with a fixed term. When it matures, the US Treasury pays it off. If necessary, the US Treasury issues new debt to generate the money needed to pay off the maturing debt.
It is almost unthinkable that US debt will become an issue in the sense you are worried about.
3
I feel badly for all who may be inconvenienced or downright hurt if the markets go down and stay down in recession.
Nevertheless if this is what it takes to topple trump, let it be!
29
@TheraP, everyone will be hurt, but if we keep Trump around, the hurt will be much worse than a recession.
5
@TheraP
Sounds good. Let's start with your pension.
@TheraP
I agree with you 100%. I will gladly lose some of my portfolio in order to get rid of Trump and stabilize this country.
6
Trump’s threats and bullying, egged on by his hawkish advisors Bolton and Pompeo, have failed to intimidate. They have failed against North Korea that hasn’t surrendered its nukes. They have failed against Iran that has’t given in to Trump’s demands. They have failed against Venezuela that hasn’t replaced Maduro as its leader. They failed against Turkey that has completed its purchase of a Russian air defense missile system. So now, with our economy teetering on the precipice of recession, does he think he can intimidate China?
These are dangerous times with a dangerous President in office. Other countries have taken Trump’s measure and are calling his bluff. Trump is fading in the polls and knows the economy is the key to any hope of reelection. Desperation is setting in.
60
Learning from mistakes is sentiment almost universally held. Often overlooked is we learn even more from success and achievement. Trump's history is evidently light on the latter. The consequences of this shortcoming are being realized with increasing impact on the country and the world at large.
4
Between the 1960s and now, 2019, there were 5 trade wars in which the US declared.
The Steel Tariff in 2002 was disastrous which resulted in higher steel prices and the loss of up to 26,000 jobs in steel-using industries.
In 1982, the US argued that Canada was unfairly subsidizing its softwood lumber thus beginning the Canada-U.S. Lumber Wars. The standoff led to years of disputes and continued tariffs. While Canada was expected to pay hundreds of millions in softwood lumber tariffs in 2018, U.S. consumers also faced record lumber prices as the home construction industry boomed.
But there was also the 1987 Trade War with Japan over cars, electronics, motorcycles. In the end, Japan chose not to strike back.
Perhaps Trump underestimated the resolve and determination of Xi Jinping and thought he would fold.
But in the end, it seems much of the world besides the US relies on many goods manufactured in China. Their economy is worldwide. However, China also relied on American products as well.
Both countries need each other and presently, both countries are hurting across the board on many levels. This financial and trade spat has spilled over into the rest of the world. In the end, I just wonder how much good will actually come of this trade war?
6
@Marge Keller The US needs to stop promoting & funded Thuggish dictators.We need to end any military protections for Islamic countries that suppress womens rights to equality .We need to end Free trade w The Chinese that have satellites killers in orbit that threaten any nations communication satellites.
free trade is killing our oceans & the planet faster &faster as each year goes by in order for Wall St investments overseas.Ships spew out the worst exhaust from burning bunker oil .No way does free trade benefit Americans in the long run.
1
no good will come of this so-called trade war because it is illegitimate. This "war" is based on Trump's pig-headedness and inability to negotiate anything. If America is business than businessmen better get Congress to stop Trump NOW from doing even more damage. China can take care of itself.
4
@mag2
I agree that China can take care of itself.
But the rest of the world is feeling the pains of Trump's trade war. Those results are no longer America based only.
I completely agree that Trump's "pig-headedness and inability to negotiate anything" on any level is at the root of this entire financial nightmare. You are so spot on with that assessment.
My question is just how far, how long, and to what end will this trade war result in? Total collapse of the world economy?
2
Apparently Trump can’t bring himself to openly support the pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, but will gladly use them as a bargaining chip with China.
Everything has a mercenary motive with this man. Absolutely everything.
41
This go it alone approach from the “great deal maker” was never going to work. China looks long term and can withstand more economic pain as a nation and politically.
Trump is doing what he always does and leading us to a bad financial outcome.
14
The USA must hold against China. The Chinese will prolong the trade war in the hope that it will sabotage Trump's reelection bid. They anticipate that any of the demo candidates will curve to their demands. Thus far it was win win for china. They are great in stealing intellectual assets but low in innovation, thus America will prevail. for decades they have stolen our technology and intellectual properties. Their stealth fighter had been designed based on stolen Americas blue prints. Their cell phone, Cars, computers as well as Biothech advances have all been designed along stolen American assets. This must be stopped and the trade war is the beginning of teaching them a lesson. without stealing future American innovation, they are doomed and will lag behind. America has to stand against the Chinese pirates. This is a war and America will win it. Don't let the Chinese dictate the terms.
2
@lieberma Not fully understanding all the dynamics of business between US and China, I doubt very much if both sides ever played fairly. US sent as many jobs to China as possible for cheap labor. If we thought for one minute that China was not going to take advantage of that then well....
I would never paint a picture showing US as the victim, if we were then at some point we accepted it and kept sending jobs to China. Sadly to state both sides is playing unfairly.
We are living the results of sleeping with the enemy.
5
it's too late "to hold against China." the damage was done long ago. Believe it or not, the American people are more important than China.
@lieberma
"They are great in stealing intellectual assets but low in innovation,..."
"This is a war and America will win it. Don't let the Chinese dictate the terms."
Kind of hypocritical don't you think, when the US (meaning the Trumps AND you too), had taken advantage of the cheap labor and cheap products that China has been offering the US for decades....
The illegal immigrants working the land should to go back to their countries too. So you and your kids and grand kids pick the fruits and vegetables and earn two cents per pound picked that your American companies set for the farmers.... (care to learn more about that?, maybe not right?)
Do you still want cheap....?
4
As has been reported many times: Trump's supporters are better educated and wealthier than the American average. As long as their 401Ks are doing well, they're fine with Trump. One presumes that when their 401Ks are not doing well, that will change. Perhaps we'll find out.
8
@Bunk McNulty ~
Overall, whites with a four-year college degree or more education made up 30% of all validated voters. Among these voters, far more (55%) said they voted for Clinton than for Trump (38%). Among the much larger group of white voters who had not completed college (44% of all voters), Trump won by more than two-to-one (64% to 28%).
39
@Bunk McNulty Just the opposite, actually. Trump's supporters are less educated. Though the wealthy typically do embrace the GOP.
8
@Bunk McNulty - Reported where?
6
The pundits, the economists, Krugman included, American politicians, most of whom have never even visited China continue to underestimate China.
China is not some third world country that can be manipulated, threatened, or blackmailed by a real estate developer turned television entertainer, turned politician.
American pocketbooks, 401Ks and ultimately their jobs, will be the sorrier for allowing Trump to remain in power and not impeached or removed by the 25th amendment.
3
Yeah China can win, because they will let their people starve in order to win.
In our case we don't even want to win because if we do that makes Trump looks good and that might reelect him.
2
@John
Nice try, but you are a bit off. We are not China's only trading partner. Perhaps you might have missed how they have been cultivating their "brand" in Africa and South America. As for letting their people starve, I guess you missed the last 20 years of economic development in China. This is not 1954 no matter how much you wish.
6
How is it that our nation allows one man to throw the entire global trade and financial system into complete chaos? Where is Congress and the Courts? Stop this insanity!
127
@Michael Dee I have a solution. Naive as it will seem. Trump, if I am correct, is unilaterally (without Congressional approval) imposing tariffs on China and other countries and/or threatening to do so, and he is relying on "national emergency" powers to claim his authority. There is no national emergency in these matters. He is misusing, or to be more clear, abusing this authority. Congress, if it had the guts, would advise Trump that he is overstepping his authority on tariffs, and demand that he first seek Congressional authority to impose tariffs. If he does not abide by this message, he should be impeached on the grounds of Abuse of Power. PS: I don't see any other argument other than national emergency, or perhaps "national security" (remember the feeble excuse for threatening tariffs on Canadian and European aluminum and steel?), that can justify his tariff actions. This is not imposing countervailing duties on countries accused of dumping, or other measures permitted under WTO rules. So, what is it? It's abuse of power.
24
@C.L.S.
SCOTUS is also enabling him, by approving his use of military funds for the war. The Republicans in Congress have acted weakly, and SCOTUS has reinforced it.
10
@Fourteen14
If a President were to nuke another country, that would have minimal effect?
An extreme example, yes; but maybe a whole bunch of seemingly minor actions add up to something much more influential.
3
I know this sounds crazy, but i hope the markets tank. It's the only way to make Trump loyalists realize that he is an embarrassment to this country. The only thing keeping his approval rating above 40% is the Obama economy he inherited.
116
I never thought I would write this, and I realize that the people who lose in a recession are those least prepared to weather one, but if it takes an economic crash to get Trump out of office, I will gladly take whatever hit I have to endure. And I am just a few years from retirement, so I may lose money I will never regain.
I do find it sad that it might be a recession that turns people against Trump, when his self-proclaimed sexual predation, his clear preference for the power of dictators over the rule of law, and his downright cruelty and inhumanity toward the most vulnerable people in the country - immigrants, the poor, the vulnerable - have not been enough to sway his most ardent followers.
While I do not agree with the anti-abortion movement in this country - I strongly support legal, safe and unrestricted abortion - I absolutely respect and understand those who object to abortion and wish to see it outlawed, as long as they work toward their goal in a legal and peaceful way. I hate what they are doing; I respect their right to do it. That is how our country works.
But at some point, even the most vehemently anti-abortion activists must ask: When do their principles become too much of a Faustian bargain? Children have died in U.S. border detention. How do they trade reverence for life in one situation, with a disregard for life in another? If you oppose abortion, I urge you to find another candidate who matches your values, without the cruelty of Donald Trump.
194
@DLM
Beautifully written commentary. I struggle with family and friends who voted for him. There is no decency in this man and I just don't know how you ignore that when you cast your vote...I probably never will understand it.
65
@CKA...my DITTO to all above. Political discussion is no longer allowed by me with my children just so I can sleep. Their reasons for voting the way they did in 2016....."what's the choice"? They were brought up to study the choices and the consequences. Pay back time has arrived.
7
@DLM. Eloquently spoken. I commend your willingness to sacrifice for the common good.
4
It should be clear, by now, who is in charge. Trump claimed that "tariff wars are easy to win" but there is no sign that China has capitulated on IP theft. In response to Trump's tariff war, China made secular changes to their purchase of soy investing large amounts of $$ in Brazil to create permanent alternatives to American farmers.
China expedited the completion of the C919 single aisle airplane to reduce their dependence on Boeing. Wherever you look, China rose to Trump's challenge with decisive action & organization.
In marked contrast, all we got from Trump was bluster and 3am Tweets. He failed miserably to prepare farmers and their $80 billion loss. He failed miserably to bring back manufacturing jobs to his base which fell for the lies that he could turn back time.
Trump squandered our long standing relationships with our allies and weakened our negotiating stance with China.
He failed to bootstrap America's R & D which is how JFK won the technology war presented by Sputnik.
Trump has repeatedly demonstrated his incapability as president and with Climate Change exacerbating an ever increasing threat to human existence, it is insane to wait for 2020 to remove a man who advocates fossil fuel and is destroying our democracy.
The people of Hong Kong are showing the way. Are we up to the task?
295
@Joe Public
And what happens if Trump implies -- through his tweets -- that those of us who take to the streets should be strongly deal with? A real possibility. We've recently seen such on smaller scales.
People are afraid. Widespread social unrest is possible, perhaps likely. The people may stick to their (now) safe homes.
11
@Joe Public
And that Brazil solution for the Chinese exacerbates Climate Change. These trade policies, coupled with the anti-immigration rants, raids, and rule-changes, are utterly ruinous.
11
@Joe Public
Count me in. I've got an AK-47 around somewhere if I could only remember where I left it.
3
“There were a handful of catalysts adding to the markets’ roller-coaster ride, including continuing civil unrest in Hong Kong and escalating fears that trade relations with China are becoming even more derailed,”
It will be interesting to see how far and extreme the civil unrest in Hong Kong will become. Who knows, maybe China's own citizens will be the true heroes and bring this tariff war, Xi Jinping and Trump to its knees.
But then if that did occur, Trump would no doubt take all the credit . . . but in the meantime, European markets continue to sour.
4
The DNC should be running ads on every network that show Trump saying "trade wars are good and easy to win"
174
@R Biggs. Good idea but for the fact that his worshipers would accept it as true.
1
"...trade wars are good, and easy to win."
Donald Trump March 2, 2018
53
@Mike
A trade war is a zero sum game. If it’s easy for one side to win, it should be just as easy for the other to lose.
Seems like Trump has the “easy” part of the analysis correct for this trade war, it’s just that he’s a bit mixed up on who’s winning & who’s losing.
1
Where is the "eject" button on this Trump machine?
80
China may hold the trump card in the 2020 election.
67
Xi is playing Donnie like a violin. This will not end well for his Presidency which in the long run is going to be good for America.
110
@Phil Forve Write him a love letter, and he'll let you build nuclear weapons and threaten the world with long and short range missles. Flatter him, sabotage his country's democracy, undermine its social fabric through social media, and he'll be indebted for life. The leaders playing this parasite are generally thugs, psychopaths and dictators, all of them out for their own personal gains.
7
Excellent. China can take trump down. And I'm all for it.
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@William Thomas
Rooting for a foreign power and one that seems to be straight out of Orwell's books over the US, just because you hate Trump, talk about the proverbial cutting the nose to spite the face.
Regardless of the hyperbole we use that we have become a dictatorship etc. We are no where close to the awfulness that is China.
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@John I don't think he is rooting for China. I read it as valuing decency more than $$$. I know I am willing to take a hit to be rid of Trump.
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@William Thomas — Thing is, China will take US down with him.
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But I thought "trade wars are good and easy to win." Was Trump, after all, wrong when he said that? And how much are his billionaire supporters losing in the stock market?
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@Christy nothing if he gives the heads up and they short the market prior to every ill conceived tweet
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@MDM
True enough. Wilbur Ross has made a fortune doing just that.
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"“We are in uncharted territory with few historical precedents to guide us,” said Shaun Roache, chief economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global. “The latest temporary reprieve on tariffs does little to ease this uncertainty."
Uncharted territory--how often have we seen that phrase in the past 3 years? We know Donald Trump is an iconoclast on numerous fronts, but up to now he's pretty much confined his norms-busting to the United States.
Now, with his trade war against China, he may hold the distinction of helping set off a global financial crisis as well. I believe he and his advisors have totally underestimated President Xi, throwing our own economy into peril over a strongman's game of financial chicken.
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@ChristineMcM
As usual, an extremely solid comment!!!
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@Marge Keller Thanks Marge, I always enjoy reading yours as well.
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"Trade wars are easy to win".
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@otto Trump promised that with him as president I would eventually get tired of all this "winning." He was right and then some. I'm actually getting exhausted with his kind of "winning".
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@otto
Trump was right....I am sick of "winning".
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...said the know-nothing “Hands-Off Commander-In-Chief”.
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