This is what happens when the Kingdom puts the court Jester in charge. How on God's earth could ordinarily bright people believe that voting for a fraudulent fool like Trump would bring them prosperity?
The man has walked away from bankruptcy a half-dozen times. That means he used other people's money to make really HORRID "investment" decisions, and those people lost.
Get ready to lose, America.
4
He is fulfilling his campaign promise to run America like he runs his businesses. Right into the ground.
5
Never underestimate a 5 time loser's ability to stumble into disaster.
5
The "dual mandate" to the Federal reserve Bank works about as well as Boeing's kluge to hide the pitch instability of its Maxed-out 737s. Financial markets gyrate because the Federal Reserve Bank is forced to deviate from stable monetary policy by vicissitudes of employment levels because the hopelessly incompetent Congress handed off its own responsibilities for fiscal policy (taxation and spending) to a body with no real fiscal powers. The result is a casino where most of the action is in options.
1
Congress should end Trump’s trade wars.
6
As the economy goes, so does Trump. Economic reality is a you know what.
4
Trump promised 3% growth and manufacturing jobs renaissance in exchange for his massive tax cut for ultra wealthy. Trump/GOP promised a trickle down of crumbs from the wealthy down to the rest of us. Just as Trump/GOP’s promise of a Mexico paid wall, climate change denialism, and America first trade wars, Trump/GOP were spewing massive lies. Lies and extremist racism politics won’t feed our families. Uniting Americans and our allies and the world will feed all families forever!
4
@simon simon: Trump just funded the biggest binge of corporate self-privatization in history.
4
Trump's next bankruptcy; the US economy.
7
Once again Trickle-down economics is failing spectacularly. It will never profit the entire nation when given to the rich and corporations because they keep the trillions given; remember greed is good.
We as a country swing back and forth from Papa Bush destroying the economy to Bill Clinton restoring the economy to Bush Jr. destroying the economy succeeded by Obama rescuing the nation’s economy from the deficit spending of Bush. Now we swing back with this administration once again giving trillions to the rich with the same lie of creating jobs. Isn’t this the definition of insanity?
I blame the American voters for falling for this lie yet again.
9
The perfect fix for the economy in 2020: Get rid of Trump.
6
It's a shame now that when we had to opportunity to invest money on infrastructure, paying down the debt and giving an honest leg up to the worried and stressed middle-class, we didn't.
Instead, we gave a tax cut to folks that don't care about the long term health and economies of this country. And they didn't need it. One more yacht in the fleet...
Trump disparaged Baltimore, Maryland, for its inner-city crime and economic problems. And Rep. Elijah Cummings.
Trump used San Francisco's homeless and drug problems to criticize Pelosi.
Trump went after Rep. John Lewis, who represents part of Atlanta, for pledging not to attend his inauguration in 2017. Trump wrote that the city "is in horrible shape and falling apart."
I think Trump hates NYC most. Esp. the Southern District.
In Trump's mishmash of policies and his 'Monster Trump Rally' vitriol, many USA cities are his number one enemy. The blue ones mostly, that carries the most weight.
It's a shame that the Trump Tax Cut scheme didn't prioritize city and city infrastructure investments. Or give thought to desperately needed rural communities development & investment. Healthcare wasn't replaced cheaper and better?
Imagine the actual good Trump could have done but he needed the far-right sociopaths more than the socialists to adore him and give him applause, high ratings, and votes. And Mar-a-Lago memberships.
7
If that's what it takes to get rid of Trump, so be it. I will gladly take the hit to my IRA, which is well diversified.
4
Trump's abysmal lack of knowledge started this downturn. In thinking, mistakenly, that the U.S., buying more from China than they bought from us, was a "national security issue", he was quite wrong. It was longstanding "business as usual" -- the U.S., a service economy, buys manufactured goods from overseas.
Trump's trade wars and tariffs haven't brought manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. It costs less to manufacture overseas. All of Trump's products are made in China.
He is crushing Americans financially -- buyers of low cost Chinese goods, manufacturers, and farmers--victims of trade war retaliation. Add to that a $1 trillion deficit and higher income taxes.
His insistance on unilateral international "deals" depress foreign and American markets because they are not collaborative -- Trump uses them to punish, and all parties lose.
Trump has plunged the U.S. into a near-recession, with nothing to show for his hubris. His red hats should say, "Make 2008 Happen Again". He's taking the world economy down with America's.
6
If the economy really starts to tank, I'm wondering if those betting parlors in Ireland will be giving odds on the likelihood of Trump resigning from office. He has proven time and time again that when things truly get hot, he runs as far away from the kitchen as his out-of-shape body will carry him.
Then again, if he resigns, he will be indicted immediately, because he will no longer be a sitting president, but a sitting duck.
His friend Vladimir may have to take him, but no guarantees Vlad would want him either.
And that concludes this retro episode of "Fantasy Island."
10
Since the GOP follow failed trade war policies i hope this recession lasts years. Maybe this is what it will take for the Voodoo, trickle down fake economics these fake leaders promote to stop getting support. In 1932 the Republicans voted for a trade war . That went south fast and in the next year the GOP who supported it were fired. Had enough i have. Impeach now.
8
USA should never have pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Big mistake.
To get economic growth you have to form partnerships with other nations and free trade agreements as it is the nations exports that pay all the governments bills and gets the governments debt down.
I've been saying this for ages but you can't deregulate the financial and banking institutions because of greed and people overextending themselves with debt. You need regulations to curb greed and the government having to bail out big business when everything goes belly up. Since the last economic collapse in 2008 and all the USA government bail outs, the rich have got richer and the USA government debt has got higher. What happens this time? I suppose China has the cash to buy up all the bankrupt businesses and will make a passive takeover of USA. Why go to war when you can just loan money to people and repossess the real estate and business when there is a recession.
There should probably also be a law in USA that say no foreign takeovers of USA businesses and farms.
9
We should remember that it's not just the farmers who will be hit, it's entire towns and states. Many farm regions rely on a single crop or a few crops. If those farmers can't sell, they also can't support the grocery store, the restaurant, the gas station, the department stores, the equipment dealers, and so on.
9
Trump might have been able to ride to reelection on the strength of the economy. But he just can't help himself: if anything within his reach is healthy and thriving he's got to find a way to break it to pieces.
What's amazing is that it's taken so long for the U.S. and global economies to feel the impact of his maniacal policies. The only good thing about a worldwide economic slowdown would be that it spells doom for his chances in 2020.
12
Here we go. The other recent slumps in the stock market were often linked to actions against China and rebounded the moment the president was forced to back down. This one is different and it reflects much deeper forces. The president's actions, however, have contributed to the current trouble. If Hillary Clinton had been elected, economic growth would have continued more slowly but we would not be in the current situation. The policies of the GOP lead to faster short-term growth that ends in a steep collapse. Trump claimed that he was going to drain the swamp. In reality, his economic policy is written by special interest groups and this administration is the most corrupt in history.
Trump is clearly shaping up to be the worst president in history. His foreign policy is a disaster that has undermined western interests and the cause of democracy. His economic policy will end in tears. His immigration policy is both inhumane and ineffective at the same time. We need to challenge Trump's supporters forcefully when they argue that they like Trump's policies but not his tweets. There are no positive aspects to Trump and there is no method to this madness.
11
Donald and Vlad will be rejoicing soon.
The demise of the USA economy was their true hidden agenda.
12
If only these super-traders were half as smart as soybean farmers.
They know enough to wait it out and let their President produce the economic miracle he promised from the beginning.
Wall Street...home of The Bozos.
where is policy wonk paul ryan on this? Oh I forgot , he went to lobby and spend more time with his teenager kids
11
Gee thanks Donald.
11
I'm socially conservative but economically wet (in Australian parlance). I never quite understand the American capitalist hyper drive and gross inequality which destabilises social cohesion and rocks crumbles the dominance hierarchy (for those seeking to maintain status quo). Regardless of recent calls by Andrew Yang and a universal basic income, it seems to me that a society where the poor have money beyond subsistence are able to spend these funds in their communities. Win for all.
6
A recent poll has Trump down 9 points in Arizona. I have lived in Arizona since 1983 and if he is down 9 points as the economy craters in Arizona, he has no chance in 2020!
12
Trump wants lower interest rates despite marshalling the best economy in U.S. history.
Jerome Powell lowered interest rates because of worries over the economy worsened by Trump's tariff policies and tweets.
Both cannot be right.
4
The Democrats need to get their messaging together and shout from the rooftops that this president is tanking an otherwise healthy economy. SCREAM THIS FROM THE ROOFTOPS. Every candidate needs to be tweeting about this (among other key issues like, oh you know, we still have kids in cages). They might not care about kids in cages, that much is clear, but if I was a midwestern middle aged Republican middle class man I would be very worried for my 401K right now. Where's the Democrat spinning machine when you need it?!
21
So the biggest loser (1 billion over 10 years) and his erratic destabilizing of trade markets and exploding deficits has finally made us grate again. And the republicans have allowed it as long as they got tax cuts for their donors and could take woman’s rights away. Woohoo, so much winning
15
So, how’s the President going to blame President Obama for this one?
Fox and Friends I’m sure will explain
22
President Trump is blaming the Fed. Well, I blame Trump and Navarro. The WSJ is calling this the Navarro Recession of 2020. But it doesn't have to be. Trump says he likes law and order - well, how about some law and order in the tariff policies and negotiations. Stop threatening and bullying the Fed into another rate cut. Stop the trade threats to China and our allies. Mediate the trade war about to breakout between Japan and S. Korea. Stand up for Hong Kong. Negotiate the best deal that is possible, which may mean, as Trump's theme song says, we may not get everything we want but we get what we need. Act like the world leader that the U.S. is supposed to be. And know that the time to wrap this up is running out because there will be no second term if the Navarro Recession comes to be.
6
As always it will be the people living in high tax, low benefit countries like the US that are hit the hardest by the next recession.
9
Trump's trade fantasies have succeeded beyond everyone's expectations... in slowing the global economy to the brink of recession. Donald's shot himself in the foot so often, it's a wonder he has any toes left. If it paves the way for his defeat in 2020, the pain may be worth it.
16
@Mark McIntyre
"If it paves the way for his defeat in 2020, the pain may be worth it."
For those wondering why conservatives believe the left has been wishing for a recession. Let me repeat for those gleeful: "A low tide drops all boats equally".
4
Global economies were already slowing over the past year, but the tariffs are making things worse. However this 10 year recovery from 2009- 2019 that started under Obama is recognized as one the most anemic economic recoveries in history. For reference the 1991-2001 gross domestic product increased 43%. This cycle of recovery the GDP expanded only 22%. The Obama recovery was weak and frail and the Trump tariffs may be too much headwind for the expansion to continue. Lawrence Summers has called this recovery one of 'secular stagnation.' We need interest rates to be far lower (we are the highest in the European/US arena). What would also help is a 500 billion dollar infrastructure project to juice the economy and spur continued manufacturing activity. Pelosi wants it; Trump says he wants it. They need to get it done.
3
What will Trump brag about today? Who will he scapegoat for the precipitous decline in the Dow Jones today?
11
Could it be possible that "someone" has no clue what to do or why the current approach makes no sense? Are there any economic gurus willing to tell the truth to power, if that applies? When does incompetence become a crime? Probably not anytime soon...
6
Wow, its a really good job that all that debt that was around in 2007-2008 doesn't exist at all anymore, because we could be in for some real problems if it was wouldn't we? Anyone...hello?
12
Hate to say it but maybe we could use a little recession right about now. If the economy is Trump's strongest argument for reelection, recession would weaken that argument. (By the way, I would lose money too. It would be worth it.)
383
@Thoughtful Feller, many would lose more than money--jobs, homes, healthcare, educations, and all the work and services that would be cut--in a nation already among the meanest of developed nations to its poor, aged, or sick. That's the rub--those who gained by the good times may gain by the wreckage--the small and weak pay the price.
42
@jb, Unfortunately many of those who are going to be hurt the worst by his policies are the ones who voted for him. Farmers in heartland USA in particular would have been particularly badly off if not for billions in bailout money thrown at them to save Trump from their ire.
They're seeing the results of their votes but many of them may not like it. To all to many of them however this recession will be because of welfare queens and government handouts... not the awful tax cut for the rich or any of Trump's awful attempts to "win" a trade war.
26
@Alex, sorry to repost, but need to point out that ALL the poor and marginalized will suffer most--including in states like Florida, with its government (like mine) unlikely to extend much help to the afflicted. But what state will. There will be no political litmus test making the fallout fair.
10
My head always ends up hurting after reading these business articles.
The headline gets my attention, like RIGHT NOW - "Stock Markets, Jolted by Economic Worry, Suffer 2nd Worst Drop of 2019" while throughout the article, there are various references of stocks and commodities in Europe, US and Asia tumbling.
I feel like a ton of concrete fell on my chest because I seem to have difficulty taking all of this intel in - it feels like the hits just keep on coming.
And then the closing paragraph states "The S&P 500 remains up more than 13 percent in 2019."
So now I'm totally dizzy from being nervous but also relieved at the same time.
5
Wealthy businessmen who voted for Trump bear responsibility for this economic mess. The Deplorables are a convenient scapegoat for the disasters unleashed by Trump, but Big Business supported Trump wholeheartedly because they thought they could thrive in a deregulated market.
12
The stock and bond market is the good news. If you really want to weep, over something that is almost certainly irreversible, look at the environment. Some communities are drowning; others are going up in flames. Be sure to remind the Denier-in-chief while he's on the back nine.
17
It's a sad indictment of the American electorate that a tanking stock market will cause them to vote against Trump, when the fact he stole the election with foreign interference didn't faze them in the least, nor his innumerable other outrages.
24
Notice those big price S&P index spikes around Monday (midnight, up) and Tuesday (midnight, down). Those are off-hour trades being done by the oligarchs based on superior automated trading technology, making sure they capture most of the upside and sell-off before price crashes.
This is gambling, pure and simple, and the oligarchs have their money vested with companies who access the tier-1 stock price supercomputer fiber optic network feed in Newark New Jersey run by Cyxtera, which allows the super-rich to beat the market. Cyxtera guarantees less than 200 microseconds time between trades and data presence in Newark. Fiancial Elites call this "making money," but it's really what in boxing is called "beating the other guy to the punch."
8
Once and for all, I hope we can stop reading that U.S. presidents can’t really impact the U.S. economy or world economy all that much.
Oh yes, they can, and Trump’s completely counterproductive and unnecessary trade wars are a textbook case showing precisely how it’s done.
For all you willfully ignorant business people who have supported this mind-bogglingly destructive man: the stock market, 100% of the time, always does better under Democratic administrations than Republican ones, as that bastion of liberalism, the Wall Street Journal, has reported time and again. So if money is what you really care about, you should never, ever want a Republican at the top.
And for everyone else who voted for Trump: you can’t get something for nothing. If you want government services that provide, e.g., good schools, good roads, safe food, and a clean environment, you have to pay for it.
Furthermore, if you don’t want self-inflicted chaos, don’t vote into the White House a lying, thieving, lazy, ignorant, amoral, huckster.
Let’s just hope it will be possible for the next Democratic administration and Congress to dig this nation and the world out of the mess Trump and the Republicans have indubitably created for all of us.
29
To paraphrase Nathan Hale, the 21-year-old American Revolutionary War soldier and spy who was captured by the British and executed: I only regret that I have but one stock portfolio to lose for my country.
11
"We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning"
OK, we've got houses on Marvin Gardens, Ventnor, and St James Place.
Now what?
9
The governments of both countries should be happy with their actions, but especially China. The CCP doesn't much care about anything or anyone. This is not to suggest that the Trump administration is faultless in this business. Trump is plain stupid, and his complcity is predicated on ignorance, whereas Vhinese involvement is calculated.
3
This economic recovery, a recovery engineered to make the fabulously wealthy even more fabulously wealthy, using and abusing the main driver of our economy, and the world economy, that 70% engine of growth, aka the consumer, you, me, and all the other poor schlubs mindlessly buying all the crap we truly can live without, this recovery is starting to wobble, as it nearly always does after a 7 to 10 year run.
Of course Trump is exacerbating the reality by meddling, with no real plan, in the economic engines of our international partners, accomplishing absolutely nothing, adding fuel to the developing conflagration causing consumers worldwide to scare and snap shut their pocketbooks.
The real elephant in the room is the fear of another meltdown, far worse than the big money trap sprung on the consumer just over 10 years ago, a trap that destroyed the lives, and future confidence of tens of millions of people worldwide; the effects, and the memory of that economic shock never went away, so here we go again.
And, as is always the case, the wealthiest elites never really feel any pain, insulated from losses, beneficiaries of a rigged system which unfailingly beggars the masses; what their insatiable avarice prevents them from seeing is that every now and then, and we might just see it occur, the engine sputters on for a bit, and then stops.
We are overdue for a real shock, the kind of shock that required a world war to start the engine, after the economic debacle of the 1930's.
6
As the impacts of Obama's economic recovery efforts come to a close, and the changes made by this administration take effect, the economy will spiral downward just as everyone with a brain predicted. Thank you Barack, for all you did, saving us from financial ruin and putting us on the path you did.
20
@Robert Saltzman If what you're taking is legal, come back and tell us what it is, 'cause everyone's gonna want some!
And do you see cartoons when you close your eyes?
@Robert Saltzman Of course. Every mistake the Donald makes is Obama's fault. We understand, Rob.
5
America is getting greater by the minute and seems to have exported that greatness all over the world.
Let the billionaires buy sixty new yachts, fifteen new mansions, and whatever underage servants they can use to feed their insatiable and revolting lives.
I, for one, will fiddle whilst “Rome” burns to the ground.
8
@Rene Pedraza Del Prado
huh?
1
Hey Donald:
Congratulations. You've made the American economy a model of your Atlantic City fiascos.Only you can;t declare bankruptcy here (unless it is moral bankruptcy). I look forward to hearing the "everybody but me" analysis of the coming crash.
12
@Tom Nonsense. He can preside over anything bad and still walk away saying he's made America great. He's just that blind to anything around him outside the range of his mirror.
3
Glad I moved all to cash!
4
I blame Trump and his reckless tariff wars.
8
This rhetoric about a trade “war” needs to stop. When will the times learn that this rhetoric increases nativism and nationalism and engenders fear and angers towards others? Calling it a “war” is sensationalism and makes matters worse by scaring the public. Can this please stop? Who agrees with me
1
@Tom, it is a trade war. The weapons are tariffs and prohibited sales. And Trump is fighting without a workable plan on too many fronts, with too many enemies, to win. We don’t have a single ally in this war.
8
@Tom Right, Tommy. Scaring the public will only make the public think about reality, and we all know how upsetting that can be.
Let's just think pretty thoughts.
5
Get this con artist out of the White House before he bankrupts all of us like a New Jersey casino. Does this seem like hyperbole? It's absolutely not. Tariffs, tax cuts and twitter all this decade's boiler room operation.
19
Unfortunately, it will be the middle class who will be the ones that pay for Trump and the Republicans reckless policies.
Trump will blame everyone...the Fed, Hilary Clinton, China, AOC, Mexicans, etc. Everyone except himself. He's great at taking credit for anything and everything, but loath to accept responsibility when his actions turn our poorly.
This is what happens when elect a serial fraudster, a person who has declared bankruptcy 7 times, and a worthless liar.
24
Could you imagine if a socialist got elected? Everything would tank.
3
Buy The Dip.
2
@Pat advises "buy the dip".
Sure, Pat. Could you just show us the calendar that pinpoints the bottom? Thanks.
1
The financial markets always contain a sense of humor and irony about them. Whether Pres.Trump is ousted by a failed re-election campaign, impeachment, or wins and serves out a 2nd term I fully expect that the stock market will have given back all gains since he was elected and end lower than where it was when he won the 2016 Election; it's only logical that the conduct of all of Trump's policies as they play out will have caused far more problems than the injustices that it was claimed they would remedy.
5
Performance enhancing drugs are illegal in sports because of the destructive effects they have on athletes.
Likewise, financial fentanyl should be banned from our economy. It may feel good during the rise, but the longer and more it is used, the harder and more painful the fall.
8
you guys know that President Trump is secretly a Bear when it comes to investments, don't you?
besides on investing in what is certain in the medium in the now and its guidance,
he loves, *LOVES* finding a bottom to see where he can make his money, or some money until the next thing.
he's been doing this since the early '90s at least,
no point in mentioning also,
so the new democratic montra is let the economy fall,
we'll get rid of president trump!
watch what happens. leadership always wins in downturns,
why do you think hillary lost, again? right. :)
2
@Thomas W "no point in mentioning also," But you simply couldn't resist anyway ?
2
We need to explore the political aspects of the operative moral hazard here.
When Republican administrations call the shots, they act like drunken sailors with slurred promises that tax cuts pay for themselves, deficits don't matter, and wars can be charged on the national credit card. You can also add the Trumpian lies that trade wars are easy to win and tariffs are paid by other countries.
Democrats, by contrast, feel compelled to make government work and assiduously clean up the mess after the prior bums are thrown out.
The moral hazard has to do with privatizing the gains under one Party (making the rich happy, happy), and then socializing the losses under the other (Dems are the party poopers and too nice to take prisoners). Republicans have no incentive to do better the next time, since it came out great for them. Dems keep wiping the slate clean and then getting more blame than credit.
Somehow, I think the Dems will try to do better this time. First, Trump is so manifestly bad at his job that large majorities will almost certainly repudiate him by 2020. And the Republican Senate minority will probably not be allowed to have the filibuster to grind operations to a standstill. Real reforms can then be established more easily, and disastrous tax and trade policies quickly reversed.
If Dems fail to do more than provide a weak bailout from Trump's mess, their time in charge will be short, and a worse version of Trump may follow.
8
Trump is a business man. No worries. Look how he fixed all his financial troubles. The US just needs to take some loans out from Deutsche Bank and Putin. This is how Trump makes America Great, and his supporters are thrilled.
14
@gratis He makes America great by borrowing from German and Russian lenders? Where does the money go? (Maybe we're not supposed to know.)
1
@Kenneth
Just following Trump's historical pattern. The money goes into his pockets, just where his voters want it. And his voters will be happy to have their money pay Putin back. He's one of the GOP all time favorites.
2
For a moment, imagine that he did not pull back on the most recently announced tariffs due to go into effect in September. Then imagine where the stock market would be without the Fed lowering interest rates. The simple truth is the even when Trump recognizes a problem (like China), he uses the same tools he used in business, bully and bluff. That approach works less well in his current position than they did when he was in business - and look where his businesses wound up? Bankrupt. Will our nation suffer the same fate as Trump's businesses?
9
Today's headlines may finally cause Mr. Trump to reconsider his economic "policy" (using that term very loosely).
A continued trade war increases the likelihood of recession, which decreases the likelihood of his re-election, which increases the likelihood that he'll have to contend with a sealed indictment that is already been issued in the Southern District of New York before statutes of limitation can expire.
I don't believe for a moment that the President is concerned with the welfare of average Americans, but he has a very well-developed instinct for self-preservation.
9
And the GOP, business people, and his Wall Street buddies are letting Trump do this why again?
5
I just wonder. Why isn't any elected Republican speaking up against his lies (yes, not untruths)? Why isn't anyone speaking up against his policy (ahem, campaign) speeches being funded by taxpayers? Why aren't we outraged enough to just. stop. this.? Because not enough has been taken away yet? Or are there more of us left to gut? OMG.
7
We are the ONLY place on Planet Earth to expect products to sell and foutunes to be made.
Europe could CHOOSE to trust their citizens with real democracy, but their leaders are married to their little chats and plans, and have convince majorities of their people to hang onto gov't planning no matter what.
So why the loud news? Thisis simply the mid-Augist Hate-Trump scheme.
The late-August Hate-Trump scheme is already in the pipeline and the early September one depends on when some strippers get out of jail, or if any GOPer shows up on Epstein's videos.
The consumers of news are being played as relentlessly these years as in any society in history.
The ongoing hate Trump scheme is the man himself.
4
Look, you can do your talk in any way you think you do best. You can reason it and bend any words that you think will make you feel better. Fine. But just know that at the end of the day, as a simple test honesty and decency to yourself, you ought to, with the same candor you pounded your chest with pride saying that the Stock Market was doing fantastic thanks to Trump, now when the markets collapse, you ought do the right thing and assign the equally same responsibility to Trump too.
5
@King David
The DJIA today is STILL 7,100 points above what it was election night.
That is still astounding.
But should the markets do as badly as you think, your side was already saying that this is the Obama economy.
President Trump picked the trade war fights, in paranoia, arrogance, ignorance and entirely devoid of the advice that qualified economists and policy experts could provide.
No, Peter Navarro does not qualify on either count. He is a partisan toadie with a moderately better vocabulary than his boss. He is no more an "economist" than Newt Gingrich is a "historian."
What the entire sorry crew shares in common, however, is that they are Republican. And we are so mindless of our own interests that we vote for them.
5
Where does this leave me for the year? Last year did not end well.
2
Trump only thinks about himself, got elected to get a salary, and medical for life.
3
VOTE DEMOCRATIC and save the economy again.
14
"But there is increasing evidence that the fight between the two largest economies over trade, technology and economic dominance has already done significant damage to the world economy."
Basically, the person who made up the stupid MAGA slogan didn't realize that the USA is not an island, that every economy in the world is dependent upon each other. Together we survive; try to tear us apart, isolate, and bully others into submission, and "be best" , then unfortunately, we are all brought down by the shortsighted people who elected a failed businessman to lead what was once the most affluent country.
I wonder what it will take for those people to realize they have been hoodwinked.
5
@mariamsaunders "I wonder what it will take for those people to realize they have been hoodwinked." A FALL GUY
2
Stock market bullies to the people of USA
We need more rate cuts or else ...
1
I assumed from the start of this administration that the king of bankruptcy would likely drive the U.S. economy into the ground, but I'll admit that I never thought he'd take the whole world with him. Wharton must be so proud
9
Tired all of Trump’s flailing around.
Oh, I meant, tired of all the winning.
7
@Karen Lee the fight between the two largest economies over trade, technology and economic dominance has already done significant damage to the world economy.
YES, ALL THIS WINNING MAY YET DRIVE US INTO THE GROUND.
3
So Trump says it’s the Fed’s fault and they are “clueless” ...
Thank you Mr. President, for your clarification on the condition of the Market ... What would we do without someone who is an expert in “All” matters ?
Just repeat after me : “Make America Rich Again”...
3
Elizabeth Warren was warning about this—she's an economist, and she knew what she was looking at and what she was talking about. Time to put somebody in the White House who isn't just trying to figure out how to fill his own and his buddies' pockets.
9
@dutchiris
Actually, despite her knowledge in this area, she's not an "economist". She is a lawyer and Harvard law professor who specialized in bankruptcy law which taught her a lot about economics. Not sure what qualifies one to be called an "economist", but she's got the knowledge down pat. She certainly knows what she's talking about regardless of what title we put on her.
5
@Inkspot
Similarly, Trump specialized in bankruptcy which taught him a lot about ________ (fill in the blank).
2
Trump and the Republicans, the divine wind. ASAP on that impeachment. We may need adult leadership soon.
3
@sdt
"May need"? We are in desperate need of adult leadership or, at least, supervision, as of several years ago.
3
@Inkspot
You are correct, please forgive me.
2
"We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning"
Democracy protests in Hong Kong
Edge of war in Kashmir
Nuclear-powered missiles fired by Russia
Missile tests by North Korea
Japan and South Korea at odds
US tariffs on China raising costs on American families
US tariff war with China bankrupting American farms
White nationalists committing mass murders on American streets
Financial recession haunts a return to our shores
American ideals of welcoming the world's poor being scourged
American ideals in general being scourged
And where is the President on all of this?
Where is the GOP on all of this?
Where is American exceptionalism?
9
Throughout the steady growth of the Obama years I would read one quarterly report after another from major U.S. companies proclaiming it had just set a new record for quarterly profits. Yet the same companies claimed they could not hire and expand because of all the "uncertainty." As so many backed Trump, I can only wonder, is this the certainty they craved? Or, as I suspect, did they really just want a return to an unregulated environment that allowed them to engage in predatory practices, harm the environment, engage in wage theft, and manipulate their stock prices? Surely at this point, there can be no other reason for their continued support of Trump.
11
I miss the time when American presidents showed economic and moral leadership in the world. Currently Trump's irresponsibility in finance extends to lack of support for American and western values; which he has abdicated. I was listening to Woodrow Wilson's radio speech in 1924 just before he died, where he criticised the abdication of foreign responsibilities by variousAmerican leaders. Whatever Wilson's flaws (regarding his allowance of departmental racial segregation), he at least was a dignified and presidential leader. Just listen to him and compare it to the current President Scary Clown. But then, Wilson had a doctorate so he must have read books. Who knew? A president who read books!
The speech is on youtube with some interesting footage.
I don't think Trump has even heard of him.
9
@Bob Guthrie You don't know ANY of the millions of black, Latino, or female workers whose household finances are looking MUCH better purely because Pres. Trump saved the economy?
Whoever sold you on hating the Prez and/or the county was being NO friend.
President Trump saved the economy? I didn’t know it was in trouble!
4
@L osservatore
There is a slight matter of your guy being an un-indicted co-conspirator- individual1- whom a court has concluded instructed his co-conspirator to make the payments to the pornography actress with whom he allegedly had an affair. His co-conspirator is now in jail. President Scary Clown is not in jail nearly because he is the president.
Who said I hated the self-confessed groper?
Who said I hated any county? I certainly do not hate the country. I love America. There is something over-reactive about your straw man logical fallacy expressed so vividly in your comment.
2
I rarely give any president credit for the economy. I am always watchful for a president's actions that may derail it (a war of no credible impetus). I also don't equate the speculation market with the national or global economy. I NEVER imagined that emotionally sideways fact-less fecklessness by a US president would sabotage the global economy and the markets! It is only sensical from the point of view of facts. A conman with a bankruptcy problem fused with insecurity competing only with his dishonest brand of ignorance was placed at the helm of the worlds biggest economy with reality TV rules. Mediaocracy kills.
25
Let's not forget the farmers will be getting another welfare check in the billions of dollars early next year. They can't sell any of their crops, but still vote for their beloved trump. It's a world wide supply chain, the faster he goes the easier I'll breath. Unfortunately if I don't produce, there are no bailouts for waiting for me.
22
@PB
If they grew chick peas instead of soy then there would be a huge domestic market for them, and it might have pushed the price of hummus down. I mean it's over $5 a half-quart, for what? Crushed and pureed chick pea DIP?
Fortunately, Biden has experience bailing out Republican financial catastrophes.
22
I was at the University of Pennsylvania (class of '66) when Donald Trump was supposed to be at Wharton. I'm absolutely sure that he didn't attend a single class. Certainly from his obvious Neanderthal understanding of Economics and the Global market place, we are all in big trouble.
Of course, he will blame this decline in the stock market on the Clintons!
Our country is now in the hands of an Insane Clown President.
HELP!
30
@doc No, he will blame it on the Fed (is already doing so).
5
@doc "...supposed to be at Wharton. I'm absolutely sure that he didn't attend a single class. " Funny, that's just what the dean said when the Don first made that claim. But Daddy made a very large "contribution" to the school's building fund. So Penn got the money without the Don-- I'd call that sweeping a double header !
1
Moral turpitude ought to count for something here.
5
@Chac The market dropped because of moral turpitude?
The guilt for the current growing economic disaster will fall on Trump and the silent inept Republican senate, no matter what he or they say.
The only good that will come out of this tentative recession is that Trump may be finally out of our lives and we won’t have to put up with his name calling, distracting lies, his bombastic Hollywood scandals, his horrendous mismanagement of America’s needs and the millions of taxpayers money he had wasted on his personal expenses and at racist rallies. Perhaps even the mean mouth Twitters will end.
Impeach him.
16
Recession is coming
It is Trump's fault - I think everyone knows this by now
15
I always said Trump will do for America what he did for Trump casino.
20
I’m curious on how Trump and his legions will spin this impending disaster... Of course he’ll blame Obama and Hillary. And Tucker Carlson will blame some impoverished refugees. And Supporters at the next Trump rally will froth at the mouth and talk in tongues praising Cyrus 45 their god appointed king.
15
No worries, Trump's gut has some great ideas how to juice this baby.
7
The global economy was in recession some years ago - and Obama kept our economy strong, minimized the effects. This time we have the opposite - Trump's stupidity and pointless trade wars and deliberate assistance in Russian ploys has severely damaged our economy, and it hits the world as well. And we don't have an adult at the helm this time to help us out.
14
Prediction:
Economy goes in a downturn.
Biden wins presidency.
Democrats are blamed for the recession.
Republicans win presidency in 2024,
Republicans finally destroy US and World economy
1
I thought that trade wars were easy to win?
Now the only question is what are we going to call the coming recession? The Trumpcession?
12
@D
What? You haven't noticed that we ARE winning? Why, I'm so tired of winning I've been screaming for Mr. Trump to stop all the winning.
If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it must be the Trump recession let’s see how his immigrant rant plays with people losing jobs, getting taxed on Chinese products and with imminent war across Asia. Happy holidays everyone
8
He’ll say it’s Obama’s fault, or Hillary’s, or both.
6
Turn on the Machines!
2
Not surprising, but these comments are rife with partisan hacks. Our discourse on matters of public concern are predictable, stale and invariably unuanced.
2
Said the Greek chorus
Trump has shattered many institutions and assumptions. One less well known truism is though a president may be blamed or take credit for the economy, he actually has very little influence on whatever happens to it. Trump, all by himself has thrown the whole world economy into the ditch. He has taken his ability to bankrupt companies to a global level. Maybe he subscribes to A.G. Barr’s notion that infamy doesn’t matter since we all die.
7
@DO5
Trump has shattered many institutions and assumptions.
Indeed, thoughtlessly and without suggesting or producing anything better to fill the proverbial gaping void left behind.
2
It's called voting with your feet. In Britain they call it a "no CONFIDENCE vote ".
5
Donald Trump is thrashing the world economy, and it's going to play havoc on the U.S. He believes he knows best everything/anything financial, but remember, Trump went bankrupt more than once. Of course, it was the U.S. that lost in those deals too. What a mess we are in because of a blabbermouth the people thought would clean the swamp.
9
Blame it on Obama. Or Clinton. Or immigrants and refugees.
In any case, expect some new horrific official statement, as his tweets are, as he had the department of justice argue, official statements, to require a day's worth at least of refuting the lie, threat, whatever it's going to be, in attempt to distract.
He is desperate, and when desperate becomes more dangerous and venomous and violent-mouthed.
Impeach. Remove or not,,impeach. give him something to lie about every day to divert him from actively burning the house down.
There are too many days and weeks and months to keep holding our breath and hoping we get out alive.
This type of crisis could have him on the phone to lover Jong-Un begging him to nuke Japan to get the spotlight off Wall Street.
7
Wow, so all our tariffs might not be working as planned?
Well, if Recession hits, I think we ALL KNOW the cause:
Hillary's private email server.
13
@Lou S.
... and Benghazi.
5
Didn't trump say that trade wars are easy to win? This said after going after our allies in Europe and Asia and South America and Canada. trump must be in Putin's pocket!
6
OK Democrats--are you ready to have 30% sliced off your portfolios in order to ensure that Trump cannot run on the economy ---sure he will be blustering about everybody but him--but the markets are unforgiving and will not be bullied--fasten your seat belts
4
How can any of us pretend to be surprised that a former game show host, multiple bankrupt sitting in the White House has laid waste to our country's economy?
Thank you Trump voters, one and all.
12
Recessions -- or worse -- cause true economic pain and suffering for most Americans and our families, mine included. A Trump recession now would be no exception. BUT! If it takes a severe recession to awaken our USA to the destructive, cocky incompetence that is President Trump, I value that silver lining.
5
In 1991, Fred Trump purchased 700 gray chips -each worth 5K - ($3.5m in casino chips) to help Donald stave off failure at Trump Castle.
Who's your daddy now Mr. Trump as the country heads inexorably into recession?
16
As my sister said, “I don’t mind losing everything we have in the market, if it means trump Loses”.
4
'The S&P 500 remains up more than 13 percent in 2019.'
Um yes - but is *flat* since January 2018, so what's your point?
5
Oh goodie! We're hurting China and Germany. Germany is our loyal ally. We LOVE hurting other people, especially our friends.
Oh baddie! We're hurting ourselves even more. Are we getting tired of all this winning for losing yet?
11
Don’t worry folks, I’m sure we’re still winning.
5
While Trump's feckless trade wars are not helping (and in fact are hurting) matters, recessions are a natural and expected part of the economic cycle. The problem is that with interest rates already so low and the corporate tax cut passed in 2017/18, there is very little that the government will be able to do to alleviate the pain and longevity of a recession. So, we'll get what we deserve for electing Trump and the other know-nothing Republicans.
12
No worries. The market is just taking a breather. It will bounce back. There is no inflation. Low unemployment. The housing market will rally. Political upheavals in Asia will calm down. This is an opportunity to buy.
1
Today's market action may be a headfake, but anybody who cares about the climate crisis should be cheering for policies that depress global industrial production. Less production = less pollution.
8
I'm surprised both that this did not come sooner and that so far it is not worse than it is. I'm hoping my retirement funds, on which I live in part, will not disappear.
3
There is a pattern here going back to before the dawn of history at the time what is today China first expanded to regonal economic importance. The same was true after 1840 when for the first time the sun never set on all of the British Empire and was also true during the golden Age of American prosperity primarily through the nineteen fifties. Perhaps if history repeats itself more study of what history repeats to avoid it is the only way to keep this eceonomic downtown from being cyclic in world economics.
1
I bet if we took a sliver from the incredibly bloated pentagon budget and invested it in the lower and middle class, say by raising the minimum wage or investing in universal health care we could stave off a recession and bring down the debt a bit.
27
While the folks on the left will hang this coming recession on Donald Trump, we all deserve the blame. After decades of global economic integration, liberals and progressives wanted to pull the plug on China, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and NAFTA. American left joined with Trump's call for punishing China, scrapping global trade alliances, and exporting American manufacturing jobs. What Americans are finding out is that economic nationalism ALWAYS leads to economic slowdown and, if left unchecked, absolute decline. International trade and its corollary, comparative advantage, are the foundations of economic growth. If you listen to Trump, it is obviously clear that his economic strategy is the discredited "import substitution model" that mired much of the developing world from 1950s to 1980s in poverty. Trumpian mantras such as "Make iPhones in America!" "Use American steel!" "Open up factories in the Midwest!" all point to someone who cannot grasp simple ideas behind modern economies: specialization, economies of scales, moving up the commodity chain, and intermediary vs. final products. Trump is basically a 15th century mercantilist trapped in the 21st century: just look at his preoccupation with trade balances. People with economic common sense have a lot to fear: Democrats and Independents who've been cheering Trump are also supporting Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren who also speak the language of economic nationalism.
1
Since occupant wants all the credit - we will hang this on him.
3
Let's just leave it to Professor of Economics Donald Trump. He knows what he's doing despite warnings from every leading economist in the country that a trade was with China will be devastating.
12
If everyone just held onto their investments and didn't panic, the market wouldn't tank.
3
The stock market is not rational.
It’s dominated by the rich, not by small investors with retirement accounts.
The rich are the manipulators, always fighting for an advantage in order to amass more.
To everyone’s misfortune.
13
I wonder when Trump will blame President Obama for causing today’s slide, or maybe blame President Obama for telling him to say that tariff wars are easy to win.
12
It's amazing it hasn't collapsed sooner given the vacuum of sound leadership. I guess the "rocket fuel for the economy" tax cuts didn't work.
16
At over 25000 the Dow Jones is still up significantly It was just under 20000 when Trump started.
For everyone younger than 55 just hold for a bit. Stocks were massively overvalued for a bit there.
6
@snake. And it was just over 7000 when Obama started. As a matter of fact you can see the massive increase in volatility and the curve starting to bend down after Trump started. Just saying. Oh, and the deficit increased by a massive 27 percent year over year during an “economic boom”. Go figure.
18
@Snake6390 A voice of reason amidst the "end of the world" wishes of Democrats, liberals and progressives who would have the U.S. economy implode simply to remove Trump from office.
@Paul. Like the conservatives who kept falsely claiming the economy was really bad under Obama, ignoring the fact that Bush left the economy in ruins and McConnell’s commitment to do anything to obstruct Obama including slowing anything that might help speed the recovery from the 2008 crash. SMH.
6
No problem all Trump has to do is tweet that he is thinking of lifting the tariffs against China and the stock market gains 800 points tomorrow.
8
Right. And then he says or does something stupid again and the market drops another 1000 points. It's insane.
But, then again, so is he.
2
This may be a blessing in disguise. If Trump plunges the U.S. into recession (and it's looking more feasible by the day), that might be the catalyst for his defeat in 2020. We may have to suffer economic hardship in order to reclaim our Democracy from a tyrannical autocrat. Sad but true.
45
What everyone conveniently forgets about expansions is that they are supposed to come with contractions. It's the flip side of Keynesianism. It's not fun, but it's necessary to maintain an economy tethered to reality. The federal reserve has been kicking that reckoning down the road for awhile now.
I'd have preferred this happen closer to the election though - more like a decline that starts in May or June of 2020, and starts getting broadly painful in the fall. I guess you can't have everything.
6
It's hilarious, and sad, to read the Trump bashing here. As if Trump is to blame for the refusal of past presidents to confront China. Thank goodness, finally, that this president has the courage to confront China with blunt economic force. The very same Democrats, liberals and progressives who claim to be patriots would rather turn the American economy over to a despotic foreign power, instead of finally confronting them, and compelling them to level the international economic and trade playing field. Is the devaluation of your national currency in a reaction to economic sanctions fair, when it reduces the purchasing power of your own people? Is the outright theft of American intellectual property fair? Is the loss of American industry and jobs to a despotic regime that pays near slave wages and no employee benefits fair? Is the denial of the rights of the residents of Hong Kong fair? Apparently so to Democrats, who seem to have their wallets and 401k's ruling their minds. These critics of the president would have our economy implode, simply to expedite Trump's removal from office. How do you people look at yourselves in the mirror? Despicable, and deplorable, in the words of your own 2016 candidate for president.
3
@paul. And how does a trade war help if the Chinese win the war? And p.s, lower interest rates are a way to devalue a currency
19
@paul
Maybe you've got a point. Then again, maybe not. Has China stopped doing any of the things you listed? Nope. Has anything Trump tried so far convinced China to budge an inch? Nope. Is there any evidence so far that the economic wreckage is leading to some sort of resolution in favor of the US? Nope. Is there any evidence so far that the US even has clearly defined goals for how this dispute should be resolved? Nope.
So far, I see a huge bar tab and none of us has got a single beer out of it. Maybe that means my wallet is ruling my mind. Or maybe it just means our so-called president launched us into the middle of an ocean of debt with no compass, no map, and no radio.
23
@paul, Convergence is getting long in the tooth with many (finally) realizing that our system (at least what we used to have) of a democratically elected government, business friendly regulations, social safety net, checks and balances etc is not likely to be adopted by all countries.
China has done very well for itself with its centrally controlled one-party ruled system. High growth for decades, creation of a large middle class, development of a market economy, acceptance into the WTO (albeit with the assumption that China would “converge” to being like the US).
The US has always worked, traded, fought wars, negotiated, invested, conducted business for its own self interest (that’s what the liberal world order after WWII was for).
Central control with basically an autocrat in charge with little or no checks on his power is a horrible system - and very unAmerican (what makes us great is our strong Constitution, independent institutions, three co-equal branches of government, and holding our leaders accountable - whoever threatens that should go to China and live with Xi). But China isn’t the US. It’s nuts to think we can tell them that their way of doing things that has taken them so far is not successful and they should be “just like us.”
Can you imagine if any American said that the US should be one-party system, ruled by an all powerful autocrat, who had his cronies running our institutions, questioned our judiciary, berated our free press - they’d be laughed at!
4
“No deal” Brexit is coming too.
We won’t even have a strong Europe to help stabilize the world economy!
It’s gonna get rough!
Please note, in all cases, far more rational, data focused realists - not driven by blind Right Wing hubris and ideology - repeatedly and loudly warned of the dangers.
Remember the days when Conservative used to mean: “stable, rational, and good for business.” That ship sailed more than a generation ago...
22
Since he is well known to not even read important Intelligence briefings and has obvious difficulty even reading pre-sanitised comments off a teleprompter; one can hardly imagine him even getting through a single Harry Potter book. Who the heck thinks Mr Trump could read an economics book? The supposedly strong economy, like everything else he squandered and sent bankrupt, was inherited. What could Trump have possibly organised when he is incapable of sending simple condolences? He took credit for the inherited economy when it was good (only maintained by a deficit inducing sugar high) as yet unpaid for by means of a massive tax cut. We know he will not take responsibility for the coming fall out of his crazy tariffs.
16
So Trump wants a rising stock market, lower interest rates, and a weaker US dollar. His economic antics are buying him a lower US stock market (with warning signs of a recession; e.g. inverted yield curve), higher interest rates globally, and (since the US dollar is considered a safe haven for investors) a stronger US dollar! And he will blame the Federal Reserve and Democrats for a mess of his own making. He is such a child! I'm waiting for him to threaten to hold his breath unless the Fed lowers interest rates.
13
Right on cue...President (the buck stops nowhere near my desk) Trump blames Jay Powell and the Fed.
18
And Trump is attacking and acuusing our allies about playing games with us?
How can people like Rush and Sean even defend this?
Oh, that's right, it's all Obama and the liberals' fault.
9
Why do these Articles always say The White House said this and The White house did that?
Trump says and does this and that. Not the White House, 45 is the problem!
I know 45 is in the White House but right now we have a one fool show in the USA.
He Has To Go!
11
Thanks Trump. No one will win this trade war.
11
The economic damage wrought by the Blight of Trump, including his foolish trade wars, is staggering—
And Republicans (and Senate-dictator Mitch), you're front and center in it.
11
There are even more fundamental economic problems afoot. Might as well add a sub title: “Nothing to see here...move along!”
1
But, to be perfectly frank with you, and you know I always am, if you think about my track record of investments I always do really well, regardless of the market.” - DJT
7
@Quiet Man. He is now manipulating the market. BetJared is always on the right side of his trades. And we will never know how Donnie has done in the market. Never any paper behind his claims.
1
Trump just dissed yield curve inversion.
The people at Wharton must cringe every time Trump opens his mouth.
Trump is a failed businessman with no real clue about running a business, let alone the American economy. Welcome to the crash of 2019.
12
Thanking the US economy is Trump's 7th bankruptcy in the works.....
11
God help us if Trump’s ship of fools needs to handle an economic crisis. It could be 1929 all over again.
15
All these people volunteering for other people to lose their jobs and homes in exchange for ousting Trump...I assume you're not volunteering your own family for poverty and homelessness.
That is the kind of stuff that got us Trump in the first place.
1
Corporate, government and personal debt bubbles are all ready to pop. Once the fear level reaches this level, and a giant sell off happens, there will be no stopping a huge recession.
5
The market loves this kind of volatility. It is where you make the most money. What matters is that America is great and it will only get better with time.
@ST: This is the kind of market where the spreads become prohibitive except to the players who don't know what spreads are.
2
As Trump continues to fumble and follow the Herbert Hoover playbook while trying to grasp "The 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act For Dummies" - he may realize he needs more than around-the-clock viewing of Fox programming to figure out what to do.
In any case, there's still his fallback position - attempting to convince everyone postmortem that again he delivered "the greatest one-term presidency in history."
11
Investors and stock brokers have been partying on Wall Street for too long.There have been warning signs including the inverted yield curve for some months but still there was the attitude , let the good times roll.Trump juiced the market with his tax cut for the wealthy and by shredding regulations for companies so more money would fall to the bottom line-he has even threatened the Fed about keeping interest rates low.This was all disastrous monetary policy but all the economists who knew better were silent.Trump can do for our country what he did for Trump Inc-precipitate bankruptcies.Trump and his economic team are incompetent and this will not be just a nuisance, it will be a major economic fiasco.
13
Tariff man will make 'the best deal ever' and save our economy. The stable genius has cut taxes for corporate America and the 1%, so the rest of us continue to work two, three jobs and use credit cards to get by.
Tariffman points to all the money pouring into the U.S. Treasury, but we can't see his tax returns or his grades from Wharton where 'I was top of my class'.
Our first reality star to reach the very White House. Our first 'successful businessman' to file for bankruptcy six times.
45 will wake up tomorrow and admire himself in the mirror, congratulate all the bigots who voted for him, and hope and pray they will do it again.
17
Mr. "I like trucks," "I know construction," "I love coal," "I'm bringing back manufacturing jobs to the Midwest." Ironically, the industrials have suffered the most. There will be no new jobs, no new growth, no holds barred negotiations. This will all end very badly for Donald and our country. If it takes more losses to get him out of office, I'm all in.
29
@Alan B
Count me in too.
1
Trump is eager to claim credit every time the stock market goes up. Is he going to claim credit for this?
24
@citybumpkin. Of course not. Pick a name from the current enemies list if you must. Not 45 of course
3
This could be one of those Samuelson situations where the stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. Right now apart from the trade situation which is entirely an own goal by Trump the one great cause of crashes namely leverage is largely absent. Yes household debt is up a trillion dollars in nominal terms from its previous peak in 2008 which means in constant dollars it's lower (I'm too lazy to work out the exact number). And what's equally important there is no sign of widespread distress among borrowers as was the case principally in the mortgage market in 2008. Yes mortgage debt has risen in nominal terms but lending standards are tighter. The NINJA mortgages are not there. The only area of serious delinquency is student debt. What we appear to have is a slowing world economy brought about by the current clown in the WH (who is rushing around blaming everyone but himself) and yes it is going to cause slowdowns, even mild recessions in some countries, but it doesn't really appear to have the essential ingredients to previous market crashes.
8
@John: Crashes happen as liquidity crises, a chain-reaction of IOUs that can't be covered.
4
@Steve Bolger
The liquidity crisis grows out of the leverage (aka debt) problem. People can't pay their debts, the banks and other financial institutions refuse to lend and/or call in debts and only then do you have the liquidity crisis. The starting point for this process is overleveraging.
2
@John: We are all components of a vast river of cash flow. One's credit score is a measure of ones history of paying one's debts on time.
I do not understand inversion or yield curve but I know Federal Reserve no longer has any bootstrap to pull us out of recession when it hits. Interest rate is near historical low and Mr. Trump bullied the Fed Chair to lower it further. Also with Trillion $ deficit, there will be no Keynesian government expansion.
Hope we do not get into another mess like 2008 or 1930s.
14
Our economy is built on a house of cards. Trillions of dollars have been siphoned out, and off, by the corporations and oligarchs leaving the masses to barely squeak by, unable to afford a $400 emergency. Dollar Stores, Title Loan stores sprout up through the strip-mall asphalt of what were once were middle-class areas. People living out of their cars. Basic insulin unaffordable. Student loan debt in the trillions. Credit card debt at loan-sharking interest rates through the roof. No, this is not an aberration. This is what forty years of neoliberalism and trickle-down economics gets you, from both of our corrupt political parties.
16
@FXQ Actually, every economy is built on a house of cards. But some houses have better housekeepers.
5
@FXQ: US politics is a game of name recognition and fundraising, signifying nothing.
1
Contrary to what the White House Squatter claims, the US is not an island and cannot be economically managed separate from the world's other countries. We learned this in the late 19th Century when Teddy Roosevelt sent his Great White Fleet around the world to highlight America's global economic emergence and that we were ready. America needed to trade with others as the expansion west slowed and closed. Our natural resources are limited and we rely today on the influx of resources to fuel our economy and fuel our factories. The so-called "trade war" with China, the EU and our continental neighbors has driven this schism towards us being adversaries and not partners. No one. no country, trusts the US today, be it on economics or policy. We, and the world, require better leadership from America. And, we all deserve better.
17
@ALUSNA He didn't say the US is an island. He said that "his" US is the mainland and the rest of the world is the island. They just refuse to follow humbly and be saved.
3
If a collapsing economy drags the Dotard off a cliff - with his Trumplican flying monkeys strapped to him - it will be worth the pain. We can recover from a recession and even a depression. We can NOT recover from another term with these mutants at the helm.
39
We let an interior designer and money launderer who lined up barely profitable businesses of his own and put his name on profitable businesses built and run by others run our country. He is only qualified to decorate the White House and promote it!
8
Day after day
Alone on a hill
The man with the foolish grin
Is keeping perfectly still
But nobody wants to know him
They can see that he's just a fool
And he never gives an answer
But the fool on the hill
Sees the sun going down
And the eyes in his head
See the world spinning 'round
27
@Kenneth-while I appreciate the correct sentiment used here, I’m cringing that my beloved Beatles, who espoused peace, love and harmony would be used to speak
of He Who Resides in the Whitest House currently. Makes me throw up in my mouth a bit.
4
@Suzanne: Trump is never still.
Tell you what, let's find out what happens when you put the financial future of the global economy into the hands of a man who's filed for bankruptcy 6 separate times, ran a casino into the ground, and lost an average of $100,000,000 a year for ten straight years - many of which he was the single biggest financial loser in the entire country.
Let's put our faith and trust in a man who has a decades long history of stiffing everyone who's ever got into bed with him financially, and is unable to negotiate his way out of a paper bag unless he could sue if first. A pathetic, two-bit, pathologically lying snake oil salesman, who has never missed an opportunity to turn success into a massive failure.
Let's try that out and see what happens.
But don't worry, after another 8 years of Democrats playing clean-up. and putting the economy back on track, the GOP will come along and destroy it all over again - just like they have the last 4 times in 40 years.
I hope everyone enjoys the latest, upcoming, GOP wrought Depression!
58
@Chicago Guy- you are so right but it is so sad-we never learn!
3
Some people made a lot of money today as they bought cheap on Monday and sold when it was high on Tuesday. They will do it again when the market "recovers". Artificial manipulation by this President, either clueless as he is manipulated by a cabal of wealthy internationals or a financial genius.
12
Don't worry, MAGA minions, once Trump wrecks the economy he'll just force the US into bankruptcy, lawyer up, stiff working-stiff creditors, leave the world in ruins, and bail out with a billion-dollar orange and gold parachute.
Oh yeah,"Trade Wars are Easy to Win."
23
Nooooo! I just entered the market last week! All my gains are gone!
5
@NotGivingUpOnOhio
This is why I've been going out of my way to avoid any risks, financially speaking. The writing has been on the wall for a bit now... instability in the markets, evidence of another artificial bubble, and just generally things feeling a lot like they did just before the Great Recession.
I was planning on going back to school and finding a job closer to where I live, but I felt it was just too risky to take on that financial burden and give up my seniority at my current position right now. I'm glad I waited.
3
Ah, trickle down economics--the Republicans make sure your savings and paycheck trickle right down the drain.
25
The NY Times would rather our country be sold out to the Chinese then suffer a bit of short-term economic pain. Which is better for the country's long term future?
2
@Mary sounds like someone who has never had to worry about even a bit of "economic pain."
11
The US economy depends upon an eqitable balance of trade, i.e., markets for its products.
Trump has thrown a hand grenade into that balance.
You cannot blame China for the predations of US capitalism and the ignorant bungling of its commander-in-chief.
9
Too many ignorant people posting here that know nothing of how the financial system works in this country. Maybe you haven't noticed, or maybe you have, that the news media hates Trump. The private run for profit federal reserve and it's owners also own the central banks around the globe. They are the ones that set boom and bust cycles, not any POTUS. They have allowed Trump to do pretty much what he wanted up until this point. The elections are not that far away and to tank the economy to be blamed on Trump is a part of their plan to try and turn his base away from him. The unemployment is at never before recorded levels. The stock market at recorded levels, the black and minority employment at never before recorded levels, 65% reduction in food stamp recipients, the doom and gloom by the news media has not happened. 2 years ago Trump instituted tariffs on Europe and the news media fearmongered the same thing they are now. The real problem? We have a main stream news media that is also owned by these same globalists, they hate Trump, hence all of the nasty vulgar racist comments from them. These globalists know that a huge segment of this country rely solely on the reports from their own media. That is a huge problem because if I had the where withal to report in the main stream, I could convince most of the dumbed down public of anything I wanted, true or not.
2
@allen blaine
Oh boo hoo. Blaming the media sure didn't work with people like you when Obama was trying to repair the damage from the Bush years.
The majority of people in the U.S. do not USE the "mainstream" media. They don't read the Times or the Journal. They watch their local TV news or Fox.
It's Trump's last LAME excuse but it's bogus.
12
@allen blaine Maybe you could make your case convincingly if you owned huge media companies, but you sure cannot do it with this silly little regurgitation of the standard Trump talking points. I like your use of the word "globalist". It suggests the sort of capitalist who would build big projects all around the world, preferably in Third World countries with authoritarian leaders. Sort of like, ummm, Donald Trump? And I appreciate how you suggest that it's the media making vulgar racist comments about...who? If you owned media companies you could hire people to explain what you are trying to say, such as reporters and analysts. Unfortunately, on your own, you don't seem to have a firm grasp on facts.
8
@allen blaine
I love how you say the doom and gloom that the media predicted hasn't happened, as it's happening.
11
Isn't it past time for the gloves to come off?
Isn't it clear that bankrupting the country was the exit strategy?
Isn't it clear that every deranged DJTweet was deranged? And that the Gods laughed, or at least Putin, Xi did.
Do the Deplorables deserve it? Of course, they do. The rest of us don't, praise be to Hillary's staff and hubris. But don't punish the Deplorables, Father Sanders or Sister Warren, for they know not what they do. Or soon will.
4
Trump totally owns this slippery slope towards an unstable world economy. His fiscal ignorance coupled with an incompetent Cabinet (of his pwn choosing) is a dangerous combination.
12
I have read about half of the "picks" and recent postings (total now 512) and am surprised that not a single one defends or rationalizes this market reaction in favor of Trump. Perhaps I'll have to wait for Bret Stephens or Ross Douthat tp enlighten us.
1
And we thought that we could get away with having a president who did not care about anything other than his ego and low self esteem.
4
Donald Trump, Wilbur Ross, Peter Navarro and wait for it...Larry Kudlow!
What could possibly go wrong with the economy?
5
It doesn't get mentioned a lot, but consumer debt is on the rise again; in particular, student loan debt is very high and credit card debt is increasing.
The economy may be adding lots of jobs, but what we don't hear is how many of them are "living wage" jobs as opposed to "barely getting by" jobs. And it's those "barely getting by - which does include many middle-class families and even some upper middle class - that are increasing their unsecured debt.
We hear and see that sedans aren't selling, that everyone is buying trucks and SUVs thanks to cheap gas. How much of that buying is leasing? (Another form of debt with upfront and monthly charges).
Eventually, spending will slow down and people will have to do more with less, which will start a recession. Retail chains are already feeling the pain, as are shopping and strip malls. Healthcare costs and drugs are sky-high. There is an growing shortage of affordable housing.
Trump's punitive tariffs just sped up the process. He evidently never heard the old adage, "If you fool with a thing long enough, you'll break it." or, "If it ain't broke, DON'T FIX IT!"
15
The great negotiator and great economic manager strikes again... When will the electorate learn?
4
The 13% will likely be erased within the next few weeks. The unstable genius has us racing towards a global recession.
12
I may lose a not insignificant if this continues.
Yet, if the result is Trump's losing the 2020 election, I will rejoice.
18
The American economy might suffer from Trump's incompetency, but I am sure that he is a making another fortune.
8
So the big corporations that went the "stock buy back" route instead of the wage increase route are now puckering up a bit. How many out there base their living on the stock market?
6
@armo Not my living right now but my retirement in (hopefully) a few years. I’ve lost a lot of money today.
8
@Allison,
As have I. We’re not alone.
1
@Allison Shutt and Jerry,
I came off as insensitive. Apologies. The fact of the matter is that I collect pensions dependent on bond markets. My point is that the trump tax break did not improve the economy. The big companies that got the breaks gobbled up more of their own stock shares and now they aren't feeling so swift. I believe a huge downturn is coming. Hopefully if it has to happen, it happens before the elections.
2
So the big corporations that went the "stock buy back" route instead of the wage increase route are now puckering up a bit. How many out there base their living on the stock market?
1
The Markets might bounce back but we should focus on reliable leading indicators. Look at the trucking industry.
2
Elections have consequences.
I hope that Trump supporters pay dearly.
34
@Fausto Alarcón We all will, unfortunately.
Trump's idea of business acumen is having his father give him a loan under the table. Maybe his plan here is to ask England to buy a bunch of chips at his casino?
20
Here comes the "Trump recession." It's been in the works for a while and boosted along by tariffs.It's sad we have a man at the helm who has no true business sense and no economic understanding.
21
oh guess this is back at the top.
27000 was below the fold, but we want fear!
Trump said we would be tired of winning. If this is winning I am very tired of it. Tired of him and his entire entourage also. A good economy is built on confidence not on taking care of yourself and your friends through tax breaks and trashing all treaties on whim. Erosion of confidence in American products, trade, our word as a nation, mass murders unchecked etc. are bound to drag us and trading partners down. Right before our eyes. Our 401k's are not as protected as AK47s.
51
Very good...but sad post...
2
Very soon, possibly by Friday, the hair-afire hysteria and the puzzling but definite glee here over the possibility (however remote) of some economic downturn will be proven wholly inaccurate. As it has every other time these one-day blips occur. It's not enough to worry that so many have no clue about the whys and wherefores re: this occurrence other than their own hatred for this administration. It's that they flock here to celebrate their own demise - punching holes in the bottoms of their boats and then adding ballast.
2
It’s actually Trump supporters who are “celebrating their own demise.” They just don’t realize it.
11
@JBC
No, what is puzzling is how people like you ignore everyone who has experience in this area while believing someone who has lost millions upon millions of dollars in the business world and whose only known financial success is starring on a reality TV show. And why you don't give credit to the person who's really responsible for the grown of the last few years: President Obama.
14
@JBC no one's celebrating, they're just confirming what they already knew: this was bound to happen under tRump. And will you come back "very soon" to admit you're wrong if this isn't a one-day "blip"?
10
Even if the economy tanks, his supporters and those near the fence will still support this “President” because racial purity is the primary issue and there are those willing to sacrifice their comfort in support.
Our population is as much in lockstep with its government masters like China.
Keep doing parades, rallies and beating up Central Americans.
22
@Practical Thoughts
That, and nothing is ever his fault. For example: Trade wars result in a stock market tank? It's the Fed's fault because they didn't reduce rates fast enough (even though they're already in the basement).
3
Is this what Putin wanted when he helped elect the craziest most dishonest President in US History? I'm sure he's got billions in cold, hard rubles tucked away somewhere, but I can't imagine he thought a sparking a global recession would be good for Russia, too. But, who knows? It seems possible that this is exactly the vengeance he wanted to wreak on the West. If so, the Donald has managed to deliver in record time.
15
I wondered when we would get rid of those lingering effects of Obama’s economic recovery, and Make America Great Again.
47
"But there is increasing evidence that the fight between the two largest economies over trade, technology and economic dominance has already done significant damage to the world economy."
It appears that any economic hardship coming our way is the direct result of the very foolish, destructive and ignorant actions of trump: provoking a tariff war, reckless tax cuts, walking away from TPP, leaving NAFTA in the lurch, and completely mismanaging the worlds greatest economy.
18
In the September 2016 debate, before his election, Trump said that the stock market was in ‘big, fat, ugly bubble’ ready to burst and blamed the bubble on low interest rates under Obama. He then said "the only thing that looks good is the stock market".
Then after his election, he bragged about the heights of the stock market thanks to his election.
Now he makes economic decisions based on whether the market is going up or down. His goal to get elected is that the market be up until election day.
Many people say that they dislike Trump's character, morals and behavior but then they add "but my 401-K is up". So if their 401-K is not up anymore will they vote for him?
11
@Mike C
"and blamed the bubble on low interest rates under Obama"
And then he blows the bubble up even further with a tax cut, and blames the Fed for the inevitable slowdown by claiming they didn't lower interest rates fast enough.
I'm really tired of living in a world where, if it had been a TV show, everyone would've tuned out due to unrealistic writing and unbelievable characters.
2
For a stable genius Donald Trump is seriously inept. The president should have realized our allies in North America and Europe are facing the same threats from China and the best policy was to create a united front that pushes China to make structural the required legal changes that lead to protections for intellectual property and improve transparency in conflict resolution.
Instead Trump is fighting a trade war on multiple fronts and while China is hurting, their system does not have to account to its constituents. It is tempting to wish to wish Trump falls flat on his face (perhaps the greater good), however his failure will create economic misery for millions of people in the form of layoff and lower wages right when families are planning their Christmas holidays. I would not wish that on anyone, however much I hate the current administration and its GOP backers.
9
Blame Trump's advisors. Wait a minute, he doesn't have any.
20
It took W almost two terms to ruin the economy.
Trump, the pea-brained wrecking ball, seems to have done it in 30.5 months.
Awesome.
45
Naturally Trump’s erratic policies,wild tweets and unhinged behavior played no part in to-day’s dramatic decline in the Dow.(according to Trump). There is no doubt in the Trump narrative that the alien Obama is fully responsible.
5
Oh good. Yet another Republican president plunges our economy into the tank. I guess it'll have to be Warren who cleans it up this time.
27
President Trump will not take blame if there is a recession.
He will blame the recession on someone else---Barrack Obama if possible.
13
@janye
He's already blaming the Fed. Said the rates weren't lowered fast enough even though they're already in the basement and we're losing one of the arrows we normally have in our quiver to help during a recession.
1
This couldn't be Trump, could it? His is a brilliant financial mind.
5
And of course, Trump's busy tweet-blaming the Fed.
4
Perhaps Trump will announce 'Cash for Clunkers, Part 2' to boost stock prices next week.
2
Another Republican president, another economic disaster! People, Republican economic policies are a BIG FAIL!
Trump Recession 2020.
14
Ah, this stable genius who has gone bankrupt many times...
Wants America to join him into the abyss. No parachutes for this
ride. And tomorrow could be another rocky horror on Wall Street. Enjoy the chaos !
4
It'll take a Recession to push The Donald out the door!
3
The sickening childishness of the far left posters here is extremely disturbing. Everything is politics to them and yet people will suffer because of this. As I like to say, if the far left takes control of this country you can kiss it goodbye.
P.S. I voted Democrat my entire life until I stopped voting at all. We are finished...Republican or Democrat.
3
@MM That moment when you honestly can't tell if something you're reading is very clever satire.
4
@Nomad It isnt satire. Cheering with glee as the stock market tanks when many people are relying on their investments to prepare for retirement or in retirement is not funny to sane minds (unlike the far left).
2
@MM
"Everything is politics to them"
You're complaining about people talking about politics when the subject is directly related to politics? Huh?
"until I stopped voting at all"
Then you really are in no position to complain.
2
The world economy is tanking thanks largely to an ignoramus president who loves trade wars, tries to manipulate interest rates by threatening the Fed chairman and monumentally increases U.S. debt through tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy--a perfect storm. The only good that may result should be a Democratic landslide in 2020.
9
All we have are theories about why any of this is happening. A traditional politician would not be deliberately trying to sabotage the economy as he headed toward re-election.
1. THEORY: Knowing that he can't win re-election, Trump is trying to make as much money off market manipulation as he can in his last year in office.
2. THEORY: Trump is simply following instructions from Putin with a goal of sending the West into a Russian-style perma-recession.
3. THEORY: He's trying to distract attention from his connection to Epstein, knowing that the National Enquirer has the pictures.
10
My guess is the markets will rise higher than ever tomorrow, as if the Wizard is pulling the levers. I pity the working people who rely on stocks for their retirement.
2
Bill Maher used to say we needed a recession to get Trump out of office. So here it is. The Great Recession. Just hope it doesn’t turn into The Great Depression.
6
Stock market value is a flawed indicator, at best, because it measures profitability of a company—no matter how it is derived. In some cases, it's one-off tax windfalls, in others its understaffing and/or cuts to benefits, and in the most severe cases it is offshoring—whether manufacturing, staff, money, or all the above. Investment takes sustained long-term spending but quick paper-profits get more immediate results—and investors love and reward them.
But the government only has so many tools in their emergency toolbox when things turn bad. Artificially-low interest rates, tariffs, corporate and municipal bailouts, and deficit spending are shots of adrenaline that can make a bad economy less painful.
Unfortunately, the self-anointed "king of debt" has run through our emergency kit and already used many of these supplies to create this false-positive economy. Instead of strengthening our tools in a good economy, they have been left to rot and will not be very useful or effective.
The bond markets know that this pace and policy is unsustainable and it is starting to show.
9
The stock market is not that rational.
Profitability is a factor, of course.
But the “value” of stocks comes down to what people are willing to pay for them, and that is stoked just as much by fear and superstition.
2
@Jerry Engelbach Wholly agreed (but that would be another post!). One of the CEOs I used to work with railed against NPR's Marketplace daily market summary—and rational explanations to seemingly everything.
All valuation runs as much on basic human emotion as data. Or, as they say in the antiques business "it's worth is what we can get for it." :)
1
Just thinking that if the US and world economy is tanking next year, the Democrats would be wise to choose the smartest, most prepared candidate. Someone who has thought about economic problems and will have a well thought out plan to carry us through stormy economic times. Someone who is energetic and fearless and capable of building global cooperation. That person without a doubt is Elizabeth Warren.
12
Trump is a complete waste of negotiating time to experienced negotiators. Trump snags only the desperate. The US is on ice as long as he presides.
10
The genius of Donald is showing in the graph.
7
Uh, THIS is what Trump calls a "great economy" under his reign, er, I mean, pseudo policies?!?
5
How many businesses does it take to bankrupt before you understand that's the only thing this individual as an 'unstable genius' is capable of? Him and Congress! If you "don't learn history, you're doomed to repeat it". So, his base doesn't know enough to know his history of bankruptcies since the 70's & the GOP went out for a permanent lunch break. Shame on Mitch McConnell whose in it for the $ and not the people. Shame on all the lockstep sycophants who blindly follow. If nothing else, how does anyone have trust in someone who bankrupted a Casino! Too much damage to repair in my lifetime. And you can't blame baby boomers for everyone else's ignorance. this is our president and his Congress. Shame on all of you.
5
Trump will blame this on Obama. Trump's followers will believe it.
15
Trump, with his ignorant misunderstanding of what trade deficits mean, is blundering into a recession that could guarantee the demise of his presidency.
3
We now head into the "Trump recession"; certainly a product of our president's idiotic notion that "Trade wars are good and easy to win." So while this inept and incompetent 'master of disaster' president has disrupted the world with his clumsy antics, we now get the benefit of an impending recession on top of the indelible stain Donald Trump will leave on this nation. Who could have ever guessed that Donald Trump's presidency would be such a disaster? (Answer: 71 plus million voters in 2016.)
6
Trump.
The child who hammers a delicate toy until it finally breaks, then walks away in disgust.
He won't pay for his ineptitude.
But we will with jobs and prosperity.
8
Excellent analogy.
1
Way to go, Mr. President!
You’ve already undermined the core laws and values of this nation of immigrants, divided us against each other, and failed to protect American democracy against Russian attack.
Now your erratic bullying and undercutting of international allies appears to be pushing even your kleptocratic friends off a cliff.
12
Those who sow in tears shall reap in joy. Psalm 126-5:6
But people who want to get rich keep toppling into temptation and are trapped by many stupid and harmful desires that plunge them into destruction and ruin. For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil, and by craving it, some have wandered away from the faith and pierced themselves with many pains. 1 Timothy 6,9:10
Im not a holy roller, but the Bible provides guidance for all.
The first quote suits Xi and China
The second is trump
1
I see in that graph the origin of the news earlier in the week that the stock market "soared." Now it's plunging. Check your watches for the timing of the latest on the Big Casino.
1
I'm not a Trump Twitter follower. Whose fault is this? Obama's or Bill Clinton's? Or is it Hillary's or the Deep State's?
8
@Michael
On this particular topic? The Fed's.
He blamed Epstein's death on the Clintons.
2
The extinction of species and the utter criminality of the Republican party may not be enough to change people's minds, but who knows perhaps a recession will be enough to convince voters to throw these corrupt, criminal and immoral traitors out of power?
8
Looks like I'll personally be paying for the financial fiasco of the Trump years. Money well spent if we can dump this guy!!!
4
While Nero golfs, Rome burns.
12
No worries.
Trump will blame Obama for this.
2
This looks increasingly like a harbinger of another Democrat arriving to clean up a Republican administration's mess. They say the progressives tax and spend, but now we have seen decades of proof that debt spikes when the Republicans rule.
When will we finally learn not to hand the keys of power to the reckless?
3
It's the Fed's fault!
--#45 (in anticipation)
4
Economic policy at the WH is largely driven by the aides in power. A lot of them are quite "apolitical" in that they can serve either a democratic or republican president as long as their agenda is adopted. This bright idea of a trade war is most likely conceived by Peter Navarro - his latest target is the Fed; easy-to-win is Trump's sales adjective. You will find as many democrats as republicans who are clueless on this topic, and willingly go along on such a reckless path.
If the republic party were a half honorable organization we could work together to try to avoid its three-peat. (The republic party owns both the Great Depression and the Great Recession. )
It is a venal bunch of, by and for the big boys and Trump's very fine people. Once again all of the rest of us will pay the price.
10
@Muleman I got news for you...the Democratic party is not half honorable either. They like to play race wars and flood the country with poor illegal immigrants while forcing struggling middle class taxpayers to pick up the tab.
Give it a rest. If you cant see the ugliness on your own team, you are in your narrative too deep to understand what is really going on.
@MM
"They like to play race wars and flood the country with poor illegal immigrants while forcing struggling middle class taxpayers to pick up the tab."
Except not one is proposing a tax increase on the middle class, except for an across-the-board increase which would replace your medical insurance costs.
Even poor immigrants tend to put more into the economy than they take.
And one person's "race war" is another person's long-overdue recognition of racial injustice.
1
Oops, now add to this news report that the one at the helm and main responsible of this economic crisis is trump and his doubts digits level of secretaries that cannot handle even an economy not seen in decades. Worried? You should be.
3
No one, but this narcissistic person, DT, who was also a very poor businessman, whose organization needs to borrow lots of money to keep it afloat each year, could have this effect on the world economy. Is everyone paying attention, already, who voted for him? I hope so!
6
No matter what happens, tRump will blame it on someone/thing else.
Sadly, there will be people who believe him even if they suffer because of his foolishness.
I guess that is what Faith means.
5
You can't get blood from a stone.
Trump is a serial bankruptcy artist and a serial business failure.
The secret of his wealth, besides inheriting it, is by laundering dark money from foreign entities.
This is the only business model he knows.
15
The Republicans are trashing the economy again.
18
Wait! How could this happen? He’s “a very stable genius.”
And “only I can fix it.”
Did I miss something?
6
Speaker Pelosi, can we please put this impeachment into high gear and rid ourselves of this incompetent catastrophe in the White House? I am not sure we are going to make it until January 2021.
9
The market can't fall fast enough far enough. Here's hoping the fallout is enough to kill Trump in 2020.
9
The “very stable genius” is destabilising the stock markets; so how stabilizing is this “stable genius”?
3
Short sellers are happy to read reports like this and there are 100s maybe 1000s of them out there.
3
@Marian my trader friend is CLEANING UP purely following the tweets - i wish i had liquidity like him to benefit from this chaos
4
...No matter what, the “impossible in chief” will continue to lie, blaming China and the rest of the world for his ignorance with trade.The biggest drop will come soon, but his gullible still will vote for him. Democrats have a full plate to combate him in 2020, if not, we all need a 4 year vacation.
2
If we had a parliamentary system, a vote of no confidence would remove this incompetent.
3
To those who voted for Trump, and the nocturnal Zombies who feast on Fox and still support him. I have a question, does the news of this upcoming recession make you just giddy in your Greatness.
4
Listen carefully, and you'll hear the hushed sound of market manipulation at the highest levels.
9
Countdown to Republicans saying that what they need to do to prevent a recession is they need to cut more taxes for the rich and take away more benefits from the poor in 3... 2...
13
So based on global manufacturing has the recession already started?
2
If Trump is successful in cajoling the Fed to reduce already historically low interest rates by a half point at their next meeting, he will have succeeded in damaging the perception of the Board as an independent fiscal and monetary policy entity. This may have short term 'sugar high' stock market impact but long term, would be a disaster for the stability of the world economic order as well as the ability of the Fed to respond to a 2008 style economic downturn since political considerations would likely preempt sound economic decisions.
5
The always morbid Alan Greenspan did his usual 'irrational exuberance' number on the already jittery markets. Can't he just go away or is he shorting key stocks? SEC needs to look into his activity.
2
Until there is a global minimum wage, capital will pursue the globe in search of cheap labor.
Contemporary tech and low-cost transportation mean that if somewhere in the world labor is stable and cheap enough, capital will move production there.
The tariffs are about protecting and expanding current US corporate interests within China. They are about opening Chinese markets to contemporary US corporate interests. They are not about restoring production in the US. IF they were about the latter, the tariffs would be directed at US companies producing abroad and seeking to import. The talk about this from the administration has been pure bluster.
The tariffs are not about American workers. Quit pretending.
17
I think the worst thing that trump has said regarding the tariffs was to boycott Chinese products and shop at a "great American store, like Walmart." I'm still shaking in my boots. Congress needs to be arrested for letting this nightmare continue.
34
Actually, it’s not Congress that needs to be arrested it’s the Republicans!
4
@Belinda - I wish a reporter would ask him about the Trump products made in China.
3
Seriously, is ANYONE looking into Trump's market manipulation?
He has done this before with far less power to control markets during his "green-mailing" days.
Another question: At what point do corporate buybacks of their own shares cease to be effective? When the buybacks were interrupted last December, shares fell precipitously.
Also, why are the massive bankruptcies and the absence of "greater fools" being ignored. The junk bond market for frackers has died this year.
Ditto for the farm economy.
Anyone?
12
Caution: Stable genius at work.
21
Trump appears to be attempting to blame the Federal Reserve Board for this situation.
I forget whoever it was that predicted Trump would try to blame the fed for his gamble but they were correct:
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-trump/trump-sees-fed-rather-than-trade-war-as-source-of-market-turmoil-idUSKCN1V41R8?il=0
10
I'm wondering....Will Trump be making a return strut around the tables at Mar-a-Lago? This time saying the opposite of his claim of two years ago:
"I lost you guys a lot of money today."
As we all know, he likes to take credit for everything....
14
Donald Trump and his oligarch sponsors are determined to complete the destruction of the American economy that began during the George W. Bush recession. Thank goodness we had eight years of pragmatic economics during the Obama presidency, to right the ship. Otherwise , we would all be living in caves today. We can vote these Trump troglodytes out next year, in 2020, and begin the economic recovery anew.
14
Bush1, Bush2, Reagan, Hoover. They all managed to wreck the economy. Now Trump. If you look at job creation the Democrats beat the Republican 2-1 on that score.
When will we learn that lesson.
24
The operative word in this column is “chaos”. The schizophrenic chaotic President has done everything to make everything freeze in place, as business managers all over the U.S. and World have no idea what comes next from this President. So, new business purchases and expansion plans get put on hold until they can see some certainty from Trump.
Investors and companies are sitting on a mountain of cash ready to be deployed into the economy, but they have no idea what the next tweet will bring, so they stay frozen. Uncertainty and chaos are an excellent way to destroy economic expansion, as we are beginning to see. And, we have just the President to make that happen, and much worse.
8
Trump is a branding expert. Unfortunately, his tariffs and bad faith negotiations will leave him with a brand he will abhor: Trump Recession.
The only question to ask now is how serious will the Trump Recession become? Will it be a mild recession, a typical recession or a deep recession? The fact that the longest running Bull Market is ending is simply no longer in dispute. We will see a recession in 2020 and all the tweets and blame that are inevitable cannot change that reality.
8
I guess it would have been boringly successful for Trump to just glide along with an economy that was inevitably going to slow down.
But why not give a kick in the gut with trade wars, verbal attacks on the Fed, insane unfunded spending coupled with reduced tax receipts? And since consumer spending is 2/3 of GDP, why not just ignore their needs?
6
"I alone can fix it, folks." Apparently nothing could be further from the truth.
14
This is an economic Trump effect. Playing with tariffs as if they were Monopoly money. Running up a single-year non-recession budget deficit of $1 Trillion. Castigating his own fed chief. Labeling colleagues in government by adolescent name calling. Lying about anything and everything. Bragging about non-existent jobs and industries. Appointing his children, cronies, and sycophants to key government positions. Profiting from his position. Whipping his true believers into a froth using racist tropes. This representation of America has been around from the earliest days, supporters clamoring for power, for self-enrichment, for war, for slavery, for land and resources, for the Native American genocide. It’s fueled by greed for money and power, made acceptable by socioeconomic mythology and pretense, and has always been present. But it’s mostly kept at bay by a bare majority of voters. Sadly, four more years of Trump may bring the American experiment to an end. If he loses he will unleash a scorched earth campaign during the 2 month interim. It’s his nature.
10
yes, hide your money in bonds, I'll buy the dips.
1
It's time we realized that this relationship between Trump and Wall Street is abusive and addictive. It's like any other other abusive relationship, where the abuser hands out little treats to satisfy his addictions and keep his victims happy.
And Wall Street is okay with taking a beating from their abuser once in a while. They know their Sugar Daddy will be handing out treats very soon.
4
Does Trump have enough fingers to point at the world to blame it for the recession coming to America?
8
Trump has driven virtually every enterprise that he has touched: "Trump Steaks", "Trump Water", "Trump University", "Trump Airlines" "Trump's Taj Mahal Casino", etc. It now looks like he is driving the "Trump Economy" over a cliff with his crazy tax cuts and tariffs. Who would be surprised that his grifter presidency would end up any other way? I'm not shocked.
13
Since Trump claims to have an undergrad degree in business, it is reasonable to expect he was expected to take an economics course or two. But nothing - nothing - in his business life suggests he comprehends even basic economic realities. If you are familiar with his career as a Page Six grifter and wannabe, none of this will surprise you. How's the GOP gonna explain this to their diehard backers whose portfolios are taking on water? Can we please come to our senses before all of the good china is in pieces?
14
Feels too late my friend.
3
So if there is a recession, the question won't be "if" Trump will blame it on someone else... it will only be "who and how?".
7
@Derek Martin
He will blame the people we need to help stabilize it and fix it.
1
Maybe I'm just not wealthy enough, smart enough or both. I'm 66 and just finally made up for the losses I experienced during the last crash. So the market crashes again, and we eventually end up with another recession. I can't tell you how enraged I am. What really enraged me is this is happening under another Republican administration. What is it that Republican Americans don't get?
35
So sorry, Janet. You are correct what is it that Americans don’t get about the failed economic policies of the Republicans?!
5
Some of us have been saying this ever since Trump got elected.
"The robust economy won't last long." The fall was so very predictable.
Trump started monkeying with the economy because he thought the markets could stand it, and now that everybody knows that they can't, it's too late to do anything about it. The tariffs have already hurt us so severely that other countries do not trust us.
It takes many months to rebound from a recession and we're too far down the road to stop it.
Barring a miracle, Trump's economic failure, the immigration fiasco, plus the white nationalism tag he now wears, will doom him at the ballot box next year. Donald Trump will forever be branded as "the president who tried to bankrupt the country." A miserable failure.
We will have to physically evict him from the White House. NOTE TO WHITE HOUSE STAFF: please count the silverware.
14
The only thing that "trickles down" under Republican economic policies is my 401K.
20
King Trump who won't show us his own IRS reports as he has much to lose in credibility has already declared today's business report as untrue.
I feel sorry for Larry Kudlow having to work for this man.
6
Carlyle T. Larry Kudow does NOT have to work for Trump. Nobody needs to work for Trump. I'd like to see mass resignations of those who work for Trump, but none of them seem to have any integrity at all and they will remain Trump's lackeys.
1
Carlyle T. Larry Kudow does NOT have to work for Trump. Nobody needs to work for Trump. I'd like to see mass resignations of those who work for Trump, but none of them seem to have any integrity at all and they will remain Trump's lackeys.
The markets don’t like instability and uncertainty, be it with either financial policies or presidents.
This recession will go well into 2020. So the question becomes: Will the base vote against their best interests — again?
9
At least when reading an EKG the ups and downs means life. When reading an EEG a sharp spike or steep climb means a psychotic episode. Stock charts, maybe something in between with perhaps more toward the latter.
3
It will be like the Trump Taj Mahal - up up up and then crash when borrowed money runs out. If you believe in Trump’s economy, why don’t you buy his real estate program or the video phones infomercials he was pedaling with the same pretty words.
10
I’m reminded of the famous quote by Joe Kennedy who got out of the market just before the 1929 crash.
Something like “when shoeshine boys talk stocks it’s a good signal to sell”.
Well this is way worse in that the market is actually reacting to what the shoeshine boy (Trump) pronounces. Witness Aug13 followed by the reality of Aug 14 DJIA.
I realized this about a two years into his presidency and basically got out of equities altogether.
I’m sure there’s money to be made by astute major players of the Joe Kennedy mode , but I’m not one of those. Neither I expect are most investors.
4
Too bad Trump doesn't have Obama on speed dial. He could use advice from someone with real accomplishments during an economic crisis.
Unfortunately, Trump's 'business' acumen consists of stiffing contractors, declaring bankruptcy, laundering money, evading taxes, and leaving US banks holding the bag.
Somehow I think US taxpayers are going to be the next to feel the Trump burn, and I don't mean that in the VD sense.
18
TRUMP Recession - first Trump term. TRUMP DEPRESSION - if there is a second term. Rich Republicans - your time of reckoning is near. Leave this guy in place and see your wealth go poof.
19
I seldom agree with our stable genius president, but I do on this one issue - President Trump is totally responsible for this stock market and this declining economy. He and his republican administration own it 100%. They've done well for the 1% and corporations. Now let's see how they do for the rest of us.
17
@Markymark "Now let's see how they do for the rest of us."
Nothin' to see here, folks. We're just busy making money for the "right" people. Move along.
So we end the day down 800 points. I suspect it will bounce back. But only temporarily. I think a recession in the not too distant future is inevitable.
Trump has abused the economy by using trade wars and immigration, which is important for jobs most of us don't want to do, as campaign slogans to energize his base.
There can't be that much political interference without it having an effect on the economy eventually.
11
Trade wars are fun, and easy to win.
34
@DLM so are paint wars...when you have all the paint.
Forget economic analysis. The surest predictor of a recession is when the irrationally exuberant punditry claim there's no evidence of an impending recession.
9
Hiding gold in the back yard is beginning to look like a sound investment move
29
It won’t do much good. No one has any idea what value it’s worth if you had to barter with it.
2
@sjs For those folks who own a back yard.
1
Hard to digest, though.
Is there an index that shows the effects on global warming from this industrial slowdown? Looking for the silver lining.
3
@Julio Auto and air travel decline; people consume less and produce less waste.
@DLM people travel less in warm weather ???
We used to have an economy based heavily on manufacturing.
We gave that up for our glorious service economy and income inequality not seen in 100 years.
But hey, cheap TVs!
Our wonderful global economy means nothing happens in isolation. This is only the start of a massive upheaval. Trump's moves are only a small part.
12
@Talbot Actually, we made the transition from a manufacturing economy to a service economy back in the mid 60s. But hey......
@kenneth Hey back at you! 20.6 million manufacturing jobs in 1989. 18.1 in 2001. 15.5 in 2005. 13.4 in 2009 (recession), 14.1 in 2013, 14.8 in 2018.
That's 5 million manufacturing jobs lost between 1989 and today, Ken.
1
@Talbot Actually 6 million (20.6 - 14.8)
1
You never hear anyone moaning when the price of booze goes up! People need to live within their budgets and do a weekly budget and don't spend over x amount of dollars on booze.
1
Well, at least you're not scolding people for spending too much on avocado toast, I suppose...
The silver lining in all of this if you can call it that is if the economy tanks so does trump and the Republicans. Even trump's die hard base will abandon him.
29
@Steve not likely. this is the "blame it on the Stones" administration.
How many times do we have to go through this before people realize Republicans are bad for the economy? You'd think 40 years of failure after failure would wake people up by now.
90
When will the Bard of Bedminister ask Lou Dobbs to play "Blue Skies" when reviewing the day's economic report?
2
The stock and bond markets are now entering Trump Phase Two, which, like casinos, airlines, clothing labels, etc, etc, involves realizing that Emperor Don has no clothes and no clue, and leads to the inevitable plummet into Trump Phase Three, where bankruptcy and personal despair lay waiting for all except Emperor Don, that is, who’s already onto his next con.
When will they ever learn? Hey! That’s a lyric in a memorable song about ruin. Que sera sera. Chain of fools. (A few more that fit the occasion.)
17
😥The economic protectionism applied by Donald Trump, the breakdown of economic trade agreements with the main trading partners, the unilateral attitude in trade issues with the rest of the world have caused the start of a worrying global economic recession, and that is already reflected in the Wall strett with - 750 red points, the Central Bank has nothing to do with this, so the poor economic management of Donald Trump and the Republican Party have caused severe damage to the national and world economy that the middle class will have to pay.😫😫😫
19
The legacy of Donald Trump: Recession and thousands of trillions in fiscal deficit.
35
The GOP is in the very odd conundrum of having a base now completely decoupled from the market, and a "board of directors" of plutocrats who live by it. Both groups have so closely identified themselves with Trump, that it will be nearly impossible to dissolve the association, yet aside from his tax cut, he has done nothing for anybody, except himself and his family. Between Madoff, Trump, and Epstein, we've now seen that being a sucker is an equal opportunity position and does not discriminate between rich and poor.
18
Trump is going to put us in a recession but at this point it is worth it to get rid of him.
28
@Joseph: Dumping Trump and the Electoral College could turn everything around.
1
@Joseph That's the spirit! Have you relayed your message of hope to all the people who are going to lose their jobs and homes if we have a recession?
1
@Steve Bolger The only way the Electoral College goes away is if every state agrees. That means places like Montana and Iowa agree that the election should be decided by California, Florida, Texas, and New York.
1
If this is the Trump administration’s “Make America Great Again” he needs to come up with a new plan. It ain’t workin’.
12
"Who knew that health care (and the economy, foreign relations, etc., ad nauseum) could be so hard?" DJT
20
If a recession can bring Dangerous Donald down in 2020, I’m all for it. If The Deplorables bear the brunt of the Trump recession, I’m delighted.
13
@Mark: Recessions are opportunities for the debt-free to buy the physical assets of debtors for a song. They almost always concentrate wealth.
6
@Steve Bolger
Only if you have large amounts of capital. I’m sure the under fourth crowd has none. And just because the assets go down doesn’t mean they are accessible to every day people. There are often entry requirements to buy assets in fire sake that favor the obscenely wealthy.
@Mathias: Extreme wealth concentration is one of the most conspicuous runaway positive feed-backs in the US complex system. The rich lend to each other at the lowest rates.
The party that excels in crashing the economy has struck again.
26
Remember Ttump claiming credit for the economy and the record stock market (conveniently ignoring the fact that most Americans don’t own stocks)? I remember it. I hope everyone reminds him that he owns the economy now.
Unfortunately, delaying tariffs or passing more tax cuts won’t be able to goose the economy this time. Will be funny to see clueless republicans try to do something to correct it.
8
Always listen to Paul:
In his yesterday paper on the subject, Paul Krugman underlined that the real measure of the economy can be revealed by the performance of the bond market. He added that, by this perspective, the outlook was grim.
24 hours later, Wall Street appears to have reached the same conclusion and the implausible peak recorded yesterday, on the illusion that things could go better with China, was short-lived as it could have been predicted. Back to realities, which are far from the brilliance trumpeted by the Trump crowds. The only thing booming for sure is the deficit.
Ladies and gentlemen, the best is yet to come... Keep listening to M. Krugman
11
It took W seven years to wreck the economy. Looks like Trump will do it in three.
29
@Don We lost 2.5 million manufacturing jobs under Clinton.
1
"Trump lied about China paying the tariffs just like he lied about Mexico will be paying for the wall".
OKAY....since I am NOT a liar, I will give credit that I saw this tweet on CNBC story in regard to Wilbur (a horse is a horse, of course, of course) Ross today, and have paraphrased it.
Perfect.
5
I find myself wondering how long this downturn will last.....much as I would love to see it bad enough so that the Donald gets egg on his face, I am also aware that for months at least and maybe for years, the Journal of Record has been predicting disaster and it hasn't arrived yet. Will anybody believe the boy who cried "wolf!" when the wolf finally arrives???
3
Donald done did it again and in less than 3 years should be a record.
7
While I am certainly not disagreeing with you, I do want to make a correction. The first year of any administration is operating under th economic plans of the previous administration (due to the one year lag of fiscal policy being established and new tax policies kicking in). So Demolition Donny actually did this in 1.5 years. The Wharton School must be so proud.
1
Don't count on the stock or bond market to get you out of the Trump/Fascism/Racism mess. It might, sure, but two things we've learned since trump was elected suggest we shouldn't count on that:
1, When things go bad for democracy, community, civilization-- they don't rain- they pour.
2, This presidency has afforded us a stunningly ugly view of American society and that won't simply go away by having the stocks crash.
12
All of this because of Trump being the only one who can fix . . . everything!!! How much more of Trump's brilliance can we handle? I've never watched The Apprentice, but the one part that I've heard everyone say was the reason they tuned each week was to hear: You're Fired!!! Mr Trump, if you're listening . . .
7
Investors need to take a chill pill. The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.97% as of yesterday. It will be even higher after today's selloff. A 10 year Treasury note pays 1.68% as of yesterday. The S&P 500 is up about 46% over the last 5 years; going from about 1980 to 2900. That's less than 10% per year. Not crazy at all by historical measures. To put things into perspective, the S&P 500 rose nearly 20% in 1999, going from about 1228 to 1469, right before the crash. We're not in a bubble.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield
https://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate
Arthur Laffer should return his Presidential Medal Of Freedom.
8
That precisely is the predictable result when a many time bankrupts and completely ignorant about economics trump surrounded himself with equally ignorant business owner advisors. He and his base mistaken business people for economists. These are people of two entirely different personalities/characters. The former are mostly thugs, especially in real estate; the latter are mostly nerds/intellects if and when they have integrity.
4
Typical. Trump makes a mess, blames someone else, and then continues to make the mess larger.
I guess electing a bankrupt to lead our nation was a mistake.
Who knew.
BTW: how is it that Trump is loosing more money than he has ever been worth by doing us the yuge honor of being the deplorable's POTUS (the rest of us have too much self respect to claim him)? What, are green card sales down? Russians ran out of money to launder? Are the stock manipulating tweets not garnering enough investment opportunities? Wow, wonder how he's managing to lose money this time. Again.
3
Trump, our financial advisor; tariff champion; is now clearly identified as incompetent ‘n’ chief. This will earn him lots of respect around the world. If the world scene is a sandbox, the US is not invited to play anymore. We have gone from supreme leader of the World to unwanted chump.
4
Only a self- acknowledged "business genius" like our President Donnie the King of Chapter 11 could have accomplished this feat -- pushing an entire healthy global economy off a cliff.
He really does have special powers.
7
"Trade wars are fun and easy. We win!" Really?
8
When Trump started a trade war with Canada, Mexico, Europe and China, all at once, it was a sign of someone who had no clue about working out differences with other nations.
War is not the first option any sane person should take but it was Trump's first option. No negotiations until after his tariff attacks. It should have been the other way around. In short, he acted like a bully because he is president of the world's most successful economy, believing he had the power to force his opposition to accept his terms and back down.
I bet he never thought that one of the reasons the U.S. had such a strong economy was because it encouraged open trade with other nations.
I just hope he does not fix things so that no one else can fit them. The 2020 elections cannot come soon enough.
4
@Tahuaya Armijo: Some negotiate for reciprocal benefit, others only to humiliate. Trump is one of the latter.
2
@Steve Bolger We agree. Trump views the world as zero sum. Someone has to lose for someone else to win.
That is sad because the world's economy can be a growing pie where everyone can have more. It can be win-win.
3
At least no one is jumping out of windows...yet.
1
You know that feeling, when your toddlers start playing around a bunch of breakable stuff...
That was 2016. Now, here we are--you break it, you buy it...
7
Yet another fine mess thanks to Trump. Of course, what else can we expect from an incompetent fraud who managed to bankrupt his own business four times and now fights to hide his tax returns.
8
Welcome to Atlantic City, folks.
10
This explains why real estate developers love Trump. Bankrupt the country, scoop up real estate at a cut-rate price, sell once the next Democrat in the White House mitigates the next disaster and cleans up after those slobs.
6
The brilliant businessman, Trump has finally done it.
With his 'pet tariffs' he is sending the world markets into a tail-spin, huge drops in the stock markets, world wide, and soon what the US citizens will pay the extra dollars for all the goods coming from China (and other countries for which
Trump is exacting tariffs!)...not to mention the forthcoming increase in job losses in the US.
The recession under Trump, has already started...
2
Obama/Trump comparisons are pretty silly. Obama came into office when the market was at multi-year lows. He passed TARP which stimulated the economy and helped bring the market out of the doldrums. Once it was clear that we were out of the recession, the market made sharp gains. From that time forward, the consensus was that there would be slow and steady growth, which turned out to be right. After its initial recovery, the market was moderately pleased and made moderate gains. Obama's policies were not pro-corporate -- he had different priorities -- so the market was solid, but not spectacular.
Election day 2016 was one of the most interesting days in market history. Anticipating a Clinton win, the market made moderate gains. But overnight as it became clear that Trump would win, futures turned negative big-time. But when the market opened on Wednesday, it made sharp gains. Overnight, fear of Trump had turned into optimism. And once he took office it continued. Reduced corporate taxes and reduced regulation is just what corporations want. And the market has made great gains since November 2016, reaching record highs. It doesn't like trade wars and dips when matters heat up. But it has recovered from these dips multiple times to set higher highs. What happens after the present dip no one can say.
So these are the facts about the market. Everybody argues about it and most don't know the facts. So here they are. Have at it.
3
@michjas
George W Bush passed TARP 10/3/2008. Obama was not in office until January 2009. Try to get the facts straight. Apparently you are correct about "most don't know the facts."
2
@Doctor No Bush passed it but the Republicans didn't want to spend it, so Obama had to make sure they did.
You do try, but, like most, you miss what matters.
1
You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.
What have we allowed to happen ?
The market fools are calling me foolish for stashing my money under the mattress but that uninvested dollar may be more valuable than the coins I get back thru investment. The rich are using us. Badly.
1
Trump's only redeeming quality (if you aren't an evangelical or a white nationalist) is that he is *supposed* to be good for the economy. Turns out that was a big lie, just like everything else about this morally bankrupt carnival barker. Hang on to your 401k folks! Are we tired of all this winning yet???
6
Finally 45 and the Republican Senate own this economy! My husband has only been retired one month. Sequence of returns will make a lot of retirees and everyone in general pull in their spending. Nothing is certain anymore including my home renovations.
Life has just changed!
8
Wall St/stock market has been the greatest enabler of Trumps bizarre and racist antics I say more so than the Republican party.
3
I agree with Bill Maher. No one likes a recession, but better suffer a little pain now if it unseats trump - than have 4 more years of his criminal, anti-American, racist regime
3
Stable genius strikes again. Millions succumb to "Winning Rapture".
6
Trump broke it so he'll fix it … uh, right?
4
the orange occupant and his business of losses. stable genius. watch your 401 like i am . vote him out lock him up
4
So basically Trump is perhaps responsible for the pending global recession -- all in the name of America first. And while Rome burns, Trump fiddles about how much potential money he perhaps lost because he is this country's 'greatest president. ' Truly, we don't deserve him.
2
This is the usual over-reaction by the stock market. Domestic companies are doing fine and US consumer confidence is high, as is employment. Even wage growth is modestly positive. When China stops demanding or stealing US industrial secrets, then we can go back to a new normal on the global front. Meanwhile, Buffett buys when there is blood in the streets, which appears to be the case....
1
How does anyone expect growth when the economy is a consumer economy and the workers have been made ever poorer in real dollars as the years have passed? I am not a proponent of growth. I think it is unnecessary in modern times, now that we have utterly defeated nature. However, just as a point of debate, how can anyone think that a nation that increasingly treats it's people as chattel will prosper?
Anyway, this little downturn that is still coming will be nothing in comparison to the extreme economic and social chaos that will be encountered when even the initial harmful affects of climate change become more prevalent. Like in the next 20 years.
4
Bear in mind virtually every government metric is a lagging indicator.
Trump's abrupt backtracking on tariffs is a consequence of a torrent of calls form frantic supporters/ donors in the business community who are seeing demand implode today. They are also reading the papers and seeing their investments in China imperiled by unrest in Hong Kong and the trade war that is turning out to be not so easy to win.
3
The president puts tariff on a large volume of imports and constantly claims that taxpayers have nothing to worry about because they’re not paying them.
LIES!
The president today is blaming the Federal Reserve, led by his appointee, for the problems.
The cause of the market decline lies at trump’s feet. His policies. His consequences. Strange how he takes credit for the market going up, but blames others for the declines. Around the world, economies are suffering because of the impact of trump’s policies on foreign currencies and a decline in demand for a wide variety of products.
The tariffs won’t offset even a fraction of the economic losses and the decline in GDP that result. In the meantime, taxpayers are forking over the funds used to pay for outings at trump properties and he collects the payments from foreign governments that try to curry favor by spending their money there.
China is prepared to suffer in the near term for long term prosperity. Trump’s long term is sundown. He is ill prepared to lead the country politically, economically, or humanely. Xi will wait out his ejection from office to deal with someone sane.
Is anybody else tired of all this winning?
4
Expansions don't run forever. We've been on borrowed time for this one, and it was always anemic. A recession in the next year could be the deciding factor in pushing Trump out of office, and give the Democrats a chance to enact better labor, banking, securities, and industry regulations that are sorely needed to break corporate grip on profits.
9
The Democratic Party gave the Republican Party a healthy, prosperous and growing economy, but the Republican Party under the leadership of Donald Trump, will return it with a recession and fall of the product, with a huge fiscal debt that the Americans would pay off from living Your jobs All the expert economists warned Donald Trump not to destroy globalization and world trade, but his indisputable stubbornness overcame, He left us in broken banking as he left his empresss a few years ago.
9
Lack of sound leadership has gotten us to this juncture. And worse yet, there is no competent leadership in this “Trade wars are easy to win” administration or in Congress to act responsibly when we most need it.
14
Gee, what a surprise!
Especially since 6-time champion of bankruptcy, Donald K. Trump, our self-proclaimed "stable genius," put himself in charge of the economy, and:
1. Give the rich a terrific tax cut in a overheated economy
2. Plus, greatly increase military spending and boost the federal budget deficit sky high to over $1 trillion in 2020
Note: the Republican GW Bush regime did 1 + 2 and we ended up in recession/crash in 2008
Who said the definition of insanity was doing the same over and over again and expecting a different result? Seems to be a pattern with Republican regimes.
Then as icing on the fake MAGA flaming red cake, Trump:
started trade and tariff wars with China and any other country he could bluster about
rails against government regulations on banks, environment, gun safety, corporate mergers, agriculture and food safety
See the pattern:
Republican administrations get in office & make a mess.
Democratic administrations get in office & clean them up.
Republican administrations get in office & make a mess...
25
So much winning. Rex Tillerson and John Kelly must be glad they were there in the early days, when they still had some guardrails to keep the Toddler in Chief from driving the economy into a ditch. When we see KellyAnn "Alternative Facts" Conway and Stephen "Space Cowboy" Miller resign, we will know a complete meltdown is imminent.
13
A Recession is likely but preceding this will be a slow down in growth caused by stagnant consumer demand exacerbated by an ageing population a direct result of demographics ( Baby Boomers are retiring in droves)
An ageing population leads to a slow down in demand for homes and autos and many other products due to a moderated consumer demand and income.
It does lead to higher demand for health care however we need people to care for the elderly . Right now our real issue is lack of trained people in most vocations ( over 7 million open positions)
Economist need to focus on labor participation rate which is way below our peak and many other countries.
We need vocational training , an efficient health care system covering all , a new infrastructure including renewable energy investment , decrease in income inequality , a vibrant immimigration system .
Of course the Trade turmoil created by Trump will hit all, not least of all our 401 K .
Reducing interest rates will not help industry invest if they cannot find people and they are not going to invest in rural areas and inner cities.
The future is bleak
11
The world narrowly avoided a depression last time, but with Trump in charge of the largest economy, I hesitate to see that happening again. Obama surrounded himself with highly competent people and was focused on the job - two things nobody can say of Trump or his government.
48
As I write this, apparently the only thing the White House has said so far is Mr. Navarro's tweet that the problem can be attributed to the Fed. The administration's "Blame someone else" policy is getting increasingly threadbare.
28
At the rate Trump and the Republicans are running up the deficit and increasing the percentage of our GDP spent on national debt service, the slogan for presidential candidates in 2028 may be "Make America Solvent Again."
20
I'm not at all worried--our stable genius will fix this one pronto. It's just a question of who'll be blamed.
10
Economists can't understand why the yield curve is inverted with no inflation. I don't understand all this crystal balling,
but the economy is now supported by consumer spending.
When that maxes out, probably by debt, We will have some
fun days in the market.
7
I am not angry. I am just looking forward to seeing my first MAGA hat on the side of the road, selling apples, two for 25 cents.
21
@rslay, the people you describe so happily won't be hurting first or worst. I live among them, and despite odd coal-miner sorts of stereotypes, they're pretty well off. They have retirements, a number are professional, oil men, rich folks, evangelicals of many sorts. The people hurt, here and in all the land, will mainly be minorities, disproportionately so, people already poor of all races, minimum wage workers--in every state. I'm not sure how much care even the "virtuous states" up north will be willing to give. Not to mention seeing minority and white people moving up for the help. Bottom line: this country isn't heaven, the wicked are not punished here while the holy buy apples from them with a smirk. That's just not how it works.
9
@jb
"They have retirements..."
You do realize what happened to Lehman Brothers the LAST time Republicans were in charge, right?
6
@Jbugko, to be sure. My point is that they are not poor working people on the edge. There are people on the edge, though. Minority members and white single mothers, elders, the sick. We are all in the same nation. All vulnerable. If I, a liberal for decades, wanted to hear that the world is a morality play or lick my lips at the thought of sinners suffering, I could as well be an evangelical after all, in terms of my own character. But it isn't. And kindness is requisite, in my view. That's why I became a liberal in the first place.
4
If the European and Chinese, and soon to be British, problems continue it will be interesting to see how Trump can deal with it.
He claim the success, he takes the blame for the failure. Well, not with his 63 million followers, I guess.
I don't think the Fed really succumbed to his pressure, but since the interest rate is very low for the end of a slow but record long positive economy, they don't have much they can do with that. Maybe buy a few hundred billions of bonds back?
And I think the market has already factored in the high probability of two more .25% cuts this year, so it might have to be even more to have any real results.
Which means we could soon be like Japan and other countries, with a negative interest rate.
7
@jhanzel
Trump has never taken responsibility for anything.
It is Hillary's fault, or she did it, it is Obama's fault or the Squad, or Nancy or brown people
2
My son enters the job market with his Masters in STEM next month. If the inequality that I’ve witnessed in my much humbler building trades occupation continues, this Blue State moderate is starting to consider a well-regulated militia in order to claw back what the greedy robber barons of our age have hoarded for themselves for the last forty years. The government of the people is becoming a joke. At least the gates around their communities will make them easy to find, not that I would have any trouble with that, having catered to their every whim as I built their mansions that I and mine would never have any hope of living in. We fought a revolution for this?
29
@Thomas
The Green Mountain Boy redux. Just in the nick of time.
1
Ah, naught to to worry about. Trade wars are easy to win, especially when you have Tariff Man on your side!
13
@Jerry Smith
RIGHT!
And American consumers won't pay the tariffs, and Mexico will pay for the wall!
And my favorite quote of all time, a la Trump:
"Just what IS a soybean anyway?!?!?!?!"
1
What the self-procleaimed Stable Genius is incapable of understanding (among seemingly everything else) is that the market prefers stability and clarity of purpose. The Stable Genius is neither stable nor a genius. Each time he opens his mouth and speaks using his 6-year old playground vocabulary he utters lies and blatant contracdictions and inconsistencies and interjects uncertainty, instability, and a complete lack of vision. The only thing at which he shows any talent whatsoever (but not talent to the level of a genius) is self-promotion and lying.
12
So, what does our "stable genius" have to say?
8
@Ed Andrews. I haven’t heard him say lately, “I alone can fix it,” as he did in what seems a million years ago.
1
trump and his cronies single-handedly bankrupting 'we the people' of our hard-earned money and savings, and America.
Should come as no surprise from this man.
10
Maybe Ivanka, his advisor, will have a solution.
22
As they say in Mother Russia after a nuclear meltdown, not great, not terrible.
6
@McQueen
Bad bad, not good ?
Trump is a bull in the world economic china shop. The man has no understanding of the functions of the world economy. Witness his assertion that an exporter pays tariffs when it is universally known (even by FOX news hosts) that they are paid by importing companies and ultimately passed on to consumers. He also thinks the Fed is his housekeeper sweeping up the debris of his trade war. Whack China's economy so the yuan devalues. Cut rates! Confuse CEOs about what the future holds. Cut rates! Threaten tariffs on Mexico our biggest trading partner, then Canada, the European Union... With each thrust of the horns the world economy shatters. The Fed has little choice but to follow him down the rabbit hole of negative rates. What is at the bottom will be ugly for us all.
12
I'm tired of winning.
14
Any study you look at shows the stock market doing better when Democrats are President. Conservatives try to make excuses for this, but even when Obama was handed one of the worst economies in history, he managed to turn it around. Trump has people advising him with no education in the fields they advise him on. He doesn't understand how tariffs work. He doesn't understand what rolling back environmental regulations means. He doesn't understand the implications of anything he does. The conservative ultra rich have propped him up by manipulating the market when he makes a mess, but at some point his actions are going to bring the market down like a house of cards.
11
Dems must assert that the fundamental social policy question as to economics (aside from the promotion of prosperity itself) is what policy orientation you prefer when recession (or worse) strikes. Do you want reasonable safety nets/security to mitigate the downside of an inherently cyclical economy, or do you ant the raw social darwinism promoted by Republicans?
They should accentuate how under this administration interest rates have been lowered to artificially jack up the economy for the short term in anticipation of the election, so the sense of prosperity will bolster confidence in this administration, under the false illusion that current conditions (however merely superficially prosperous) is sustainable. This is the equivalent of a caffeine or cocaine high; we all know what follows. Are we prepared?
In a cyclical economy, each booming prosperity is built on the hardships and suffering of the preceding recession, precisely as a pendulum's swing in one direction provides momentum for the equivalent swing in the opposite direction.
Which party addresses with appropriate fairness & justice those (such as graduates entering the workforce) bearing the brunt of the recession? Which party treats prosperity with due regard to the conditions that invariably follow?
Those who coasted into easy wealth riding this wave: what about your children who may enter adulthood in vastly different conditions? Which party will have their back; which will leave them in the lurch?
11
USA will loose it's mojo for producing and exporting soya beans if the farmers are not working the land and training up other people to work the land. It's not good for businesses that sell machinery to farms either; or the people who service the farm machinery. Subsidies won't cut it long term as farmers will end up like the manufacturing sector in the USA and all the knowledge will be in other countries and not passed down from generation to generation for on the job training. You'll loose your international property if that knowledge skips a generation because government paying farmers to not farm. (That's an oxymoron in itself)
9
@CKOoops! should read 'intellectual' property.
4
The roller coaster tycoon is at it again.
Would any sane human being go on a roller coaster that hasn't been inspected in almost three years? Of course not.
Trump's deregulation/no regulation/do as I please philosophy is coming to hand. Seven times this month alone, the Dow has had a 200+/- day.
It usually take at least 6-18 months for a recession to hit after the inversion.
JUST in time for the 2020 election.
Can Obama run again?
18
Even if you're not getting overly rich from a healthy economy, there's still plenty of money to be made in shorting the right stocks just before the recession starts.
3
Has anyone investigated whether Trump is doing a lot of day trading. Sell stocks short (i.e. stocks he doesn't own), then announce new tariffs to drop the stock (buy it at lower price) and make a lot of money - the difference between the high price he sold before tariff announcement and the lower he bought after tariff. Then he buys the stock at a new lower price follows with announcement that tariffs are suspended. Stocks go up and he sells at higher price. He doesn't have to be the brains behind it - he has staff.
14
Glad you noted this. I have wondered the same thing. The situation is rife with potential abuse by him and his cronies.
1
It is time once more to resurrect Yeat's quote about "what rough beast" with the same lack of clarity but perhaps with much less despair as it relates to economics.
The inverted yield curve is not telling us as much about recession as it is telling us that our current level of understanding about economics is obsolete to the needs of our current and emerging reality. It is one more indicator, along with low inflation, low productivity, and low wage growth in the face of low unemployment that demonstrate we are getting to and beyond the Kuhns' shift.
We manage, we understand what we can measure. We all, everyone of us, know that we are living in what is sometimes called the age of digital disruption but we cannot measure, therefore cannot name, the gains in understanding and wisdom that are occurring throughout the world. We are too much in touch with the negatives. It will take years, possibly decades, for us to reflectively get what is happening now and the unseen benefits arising. Future observers will wonder at our myopia.
The rough beast coming comes with costs and risks. I truly hope the costs are small but they are not avoidable. In the meantime I will continue in these interesting times to keep breathing.
2
We are headed for the same liquidity trap that Japan and Germany find themselves in. Anyone who doubts it is just whistling past the graveyard. Remember the 4 most dangerous words in the English language are: "It is different this time."
7
So, is this saying that maybe giving the one percent over 80 percent of the taxcut that's depleting the treasury by hundreds of billions, so the big stocks could get blown up and then blow up was a good idea? This has been the M.O. of GOP presidents since Reagan, except GHW Bush reined in the tax cuts to save the country from a major recession.
The big CEOs got compensated for the outstanding stock performance to date, but will they keep their doors open? The working stiffs stuck in funds will take the brunt, again... maybe lose their jobs, too. After all, the farmers saw their steady markets go away, why not the steady jobs other Americans depend upon?
9
@Carl Lee, retail sales. Clerical labor. Food services. College teaching. These and many more have been made contingent already--temped, part-timed, contract labored--the raises, insurance, retirements, promotions, in the main are gone. The steady jobs we depended on--and yes, more to follow. The rich are glutted, the vast bulk of our nation's wealth in their hands. From Reagan to this day, the powerful have been unleashed. And no, the CEOs aren't interested in opening doors to anyone. Other people open doors for them. Noblesse oblige died a long time back--the robber barons are on top once more. We forgot them in a middle-class dream of a fair and decent country. But they didn't forget us. Or their own dream of their aristocracy of wealth revived.
3
He alone is fixing it, all right. One, among many, of my fears when Trump was elected was that when he failed at governing as utterly as he has failed at everything else he has touched was that he would take the country down with him. Now I just hope that the abyss into which he's dragging us is not so deeps that we're unable to claw our way out.
13
Here we go again. American misfeasance in plain sight once again crashes the global economy. Will America ever again behave as though it was mature and responsible enough to be trusted with the power it holds?
11
Looking back to the beginning of industrial capitalism, we see that the main technological drivers were rapid increases in the power of transportation and communication to penetrate space and speed-up information. These technologies opened new markets for capitalist expansion. Capitalism cannot exist without growth.
Leaving aside that the planet and its resources are finite and that population growth is nearly maximized, we are now faced with a plateau in transportation and communication.
Beyond jet planes, container ships and automobiles, it is hard to imagine advances in transportation that will allow markets to colonize new places on this planet. Similarly, the smartphone and the instant communication it brings for everyone everywhere seems to set a limit beyond which only marginal utility can be gained. The point of capitalist transportation and communication was to open new internal and external markets for exploitation. What technology will open new markets for capitalist growth in the future?
Nationalism, militarism, colonialism, client states and other reactionary components of capitalism using coercion and war exploited societies that were competitors or not industrial. But modern capitalism cannot use these strategies without limiting its scale. Reactionary policy will lead to restricted markets and shrinking growth, as will protectionist trade wars.
It is now time for planned economies, the global regulation of planetary problems and the end of war.
7
@JSS Planned economies slow down the rate of change or arise when the rate of change drastically slows as a means of distributing the gains previously achieved more evenly. I don't think there is much hope of slowing change but I know without a doubt that there will be great and repeated efforts to do so.
2
The recession will be Trump’s. Responsibility. Obama is no longer here to save us. It will be the end of Trump and his Republican senate.
17
@Grandma -- Yes, but can't you just hear Trump now telling his base that "Only I can fix it."
11
History lesson for my dearest fellow democrats.
deficit-recession-recovery cycle which is depicted in your comments is true.
Republicans are the creators of Deficit and recession except George Herbert Bush , a.k.a Bush 1.
First deficit recession cycle was the Regan economy's hubris, Bush one even acted his own campaign promise and increased taxes. that will help a lot to Bill Clinton.
But then Bush 2 literally wrecked the economy globally.
Obama achieved recovery.
Trump as everybody knows from his business acumen, trying hard to bankrupt what is given to him.
So
I am a democrat but GH Bush was great states man, He was a rare republican called Nixon resignation before even Watergate hearing started, He was the first person who called Republican trickle down economics, voodoo economics. He is the man raised taxes , even though he knew it was his presidential suicide in the eye of republicans.
GH BUSH was one the finest president in US history , like Carter.
Unfortunately America loves fame and gilded people like Trump and Regan ( which I wouldn't like to equate in any way Trump and Regan , But his Hollywood fame and handsome charm worked for him)
2
The trend around the world is to clean up your environment and have electric cars etc etc. Our government giving lot of incentives and grants to citizens who buy electric cars. Even China has signed international treaties to clean up the environment and get rid of lots of toxic chemicals their nation uses. Even China realises that they have let businesses destroy their land and water supplies and are now cleaning up their act as it is profitable to do so. Trump refused to sign an international treaty to get down pollution. Lots in trade deals involve being part of the international treaties that Trump refused to sign. You won't get trade deals with Europe or other nations if you don't sign treaties to clean up the environment - that's the latest trend. No one wants to buy or eat chlorinated chicken or food with lots of chemicals on it or in it. I avoid USA food imports at the supermarket and stick to organic certified food and milk.
7
For all those people who made lots of money in the last 30 months, the ends justified the means.
So, having elected a short-term-profit-at-any-cost president, how do you folks like those ends now?
7
It’s time to say that if Trump wants to have even a remote chance of being re-elected he has to blink on trade and fire all his nutty “raise tariffs” people. Otherwise the 2020 recession will do him in!
6
It's always bad to have a recession or even worse, but given the passivity of the Democrats, it may be the best way to defeat Donald Trump. Bill Clinton eked out a victory over George H. W. Bush with the help of a recession and Ross Perot, and Barack Obama was elected in the wake of the George W. Bush's Great Recession. With Donald Trump doing his damnedest to wreck the Goldilocks economy he inherited, it may be poetic justice as well as the Democrat's best hope to retake The White House and the Senate as well.
47
Perhaps the prospect of losing the support of their wealthy backers will be what pushes the GOP to trot out the 25th amendment. One can but dream.
5
It is all about the money. Everything comes in second behind the money. The wall, illegal aliens, guns, abortion, religion, identity politics... Everything is behind Money. You show the voters the money they'll put you in office. No money no White House. End of story.
8
@P&L Wrong....the GOP have been picking their constituents pockets for years. It's all about racism!
1
The total incompetence and chaos of the Trump administration rank amateurs is today pummeling the global stock markets:
• Donald Trump is profoundly incompetent on all topics.
• Wilbur L. Ross at Commerce, Bank of Cyprus incompetent.
• Mick Mulvaney at Mgmt & Budget, Tea Party incompetent.
• James Richard Perry at Energy, universally incompetent.
• Steven T. Mnuchin at Treasury, pure political incompetent.
• Robert Lighthizer at Trade, protectionist incompetent.
• Peter Navarro discredited, academic incompetent.
• Larry Kudlow is a silly Fox News announcer.
These inept, blundering individuals are why the American and the global economies are tanking. Not voting has consequences. Vote in 2020, if you love America and want to get us back on track.
31
@Joe Miksis: So true. I would have added Betsy DeVoss, Ben Carson, and Wm Barr, who is dishonest rather than incompetent. And his recent failed choice of a Congressman with virtually no relevant experience as Dir of National Intelligence.
2
@Jomo
DeVos, Carson are indeed incompetent, as are Jared and Ivanka. Barr, Wheeler, Perdue and Bernhardt are all extremely dishonest. Bolton is stark raving mad. But none of them are currently directly destroying our economic system.
The trouble is the Democrats are almost as protectionist as Trump on matters of global trade. And it's Trump's deranged view of nationalism in that trade that has led him to measures now slowing the world economy, of which the US is a central part. So don't look to the Democrats any more than you look to the Trumpites (which is what I now call Republicans) to restore our economy. I am afraid that in their fiscal imprudence and economic nationalism, our politicians have failed us utterly.
@Wiltontraveler
Republics via the filiblister OR actual vote margin have controlled Congrease for 24.2 of the last 25.6 years. Anyone that places blame for the economic distresses of the last quarter century on Democrats hasn’t been paying attention.
6
@Wiltontraveler, I can't think you see the effects of Party on our economy as comparable. what party has always hated unions with an undying hatred? Which under Reagan stripped unions of protections and leapt to destroy pensions and benefits nationwide? Not the democrats. Who fought to make the stimulus under Obama smaller than needed or removed regulation to let global frauds explode--and now works to undo re-regulation daily? Who pours trillions to the rich from our treasury as soon as they take power? Who destroys trade agreements and wrecks our allies trust? Who initiates war's unnecessary carnage and pours trillions to arms dealers and military corporations? Yes, democrats have been imperfect, impure--but come on. There IS no comparison there. And it matters.
2
Doesn't the President's postponement of Increased tariffs against China indicate that Americans desperately want Chinese goods? The postponement is intended to allow retailers to stock up on lower priced goods for the year-end holidays. Mr. Trump really doesn't expect American Xmas shoppers to support his war on Chinese manufacturing. Does anyone expect this blustering president to then push up prices for Americans in an election year? He's playing a con game with our economic futures.
8
Who could have predicted after 8 years of slow and steady growth by the Obama Administration (and out of a major recession), that the economy would be tanked under Trump?
Was it his failed businesses, his fake wealth, and his grifter mentality?
1517
@greg. And it has taken less than three years to tank it. He’s a genius, all right.
136
@greg When Trump was elected, I predicted it. Not hard, either. He trashed his own businesses, which he actually cared about; he doesn't care deeply about the American economy because he no longer depends on it - he has Russia to sustain him, and has for a while. And Trump is all about Trump, so...
Donald Trump does not really understand business or economics, not even on a small scale much less national or world scale. All he knows is the hammer, and thus to him everything looks like a nail. Bully or con artist are his only strategies, and even with those he has no finesse. We've just been lucky that Obama's economy rolled on for another couple years after he turned it over, and even Trump can't totally ruin it all that quickly. Even though he's been busy knocking out support struts one by one since he took office, especially if he thought it had Obama's name on it.
Sometimes I wonder if things would have been different if Obama hadn't well roasted Trump at that 2011 White House Correspondents' Association dinner. I think that's when Trump determined he was going to destroy Obama and his legacy, leading to his 2016 campaign and win. "He laughed at me. Me! And made the rest of them laugh, too!" A horrible event for Trump from anyone, much less from a black man.
152
@greg
Maybe because he doesn't think clearly, in the ordinary sense of the work "think"
33
Time to start bringing all those companies that are in China, home to the USA, so the USA can have a booming economy again and get down some government debt. (Includes Trumps daughters companies as well.) Give USA companies incentives to bring manufacturing back to the USA as USA is Chinas biggest buyer of all their unnecessary Christmas junk. Make America great again - bring manufacturing back to the USA.
Change the law so USA companies are heavily taxed for starting up a business in China instead of the USA.
1
@CK It's profits over people! US corporations don't want to pay living wages and consumers have been conditioned to buy on the cheap. Jobs are not coming back.
2
Not to be cynical, but do you think Trump might be calling his broker before he drops any of his tweet bombs?
11
We get up, go to work and produce. We are why the economy has had a semblance of a fighting chance despite Trump's gross mismanagement. Just imagine how well the economy would be doing, on a firmer foundation, without the destructive short-sighted policies / chaos created by Trump.
10
...additionally, the approval ratings of any other half decent president would be in the 60s or 70s or even higher with an economy this strong. But Trump’s behavior is so dismal he can’t break out of the 40s. He hurts even himself.
6
Recession is short for "Republicans are in Session"
38
Trump inherited great economy from Obama with a significant potential for continuous growth but due the his horrendous incompetence and ignorance the economy is being ruined. Trump's swamp in Washington will pulls all of us under water.
9
I hope people can see that he is destroying the economy.
10
I hope someone told Individual-1 that he crashed the DOW.
4
This is what one of the commenters wrote here, however absurd it may sound "If the economy is Trump's strongest argument for reelection, recession would weaken that argument. (By the way, I would lose money too. It would be worth it.)"
This just exemplifies the insane hatred the liberals have for Trump. They would even be willing to crash the economy just to have their man or woman in the White House. Incredibly stupid and self-destructive.
As for what is happening now, nothing exactly to do with DT. By all accounts the US economy is not in the bad shape by any means and the recession talk is a political ploy or concerted subversive action by some "investors" more than anything else. Besides, however simplistic and emptyheaded DT is, he will not risk the economy in the election year.
2
You are very confused. Yes, liberals hate Trump and want him out of office. But their cynical desire to have a recession isn’t what will crash the economy. Trump’s policies will.
16
@ss: People who voted for Trump wanted to 'shake things up'. Well, they got their guy, someone who likes to tear down and destroy. Trouble is, he doesn't know how to create and build.
The Great Builder, which is how he thinks about himself, is a fraud.
6
@ss. It’s not that Trump wouldn’t risk the economy in an election year. It’s that he’s incapable of understanding and working WITH it at any time. All he had to do was accept the gift Obama gave him and go with it, but no, he has to undo everything Obama did, and this time it meant making the economy and everything else so shaky and uncertain that it’s going to be hard to straighten it out, even if the next administration is close to perfect. Insane hatred for Trump? Sorry, but my hatred for him is very rational and well thought out. He’s earned it by virtually everything he’s done or said. The insanity is with the people who still think he’s a gift from God.
2
Meanwhile our Twitterer in Chief is spending his time tweeting Epstein conspiracies and making fun of Cumo. Republicans are your'll missing Obama yet?
9
As written, the sense of investors is "Concern over growth". I was just thinking, although we are all disappointed or angered over companies using their tax cuts to buy back stocks, as may be occurring here, there is an advantage; the stock buybacks will enable the companies to hold the line on, or reduce prices of their products making us more competitive on world markets, so I would invest in American companies that have no foreign risk in holdings and wait for this dynamic to begin.
There are no safer investments than in your own home so to speak. That means American companies with all their operations here in America.
@PATRICK, you think so? I don't. Long-term thinking, actual investing, takes too long. And in America? Where people don't eat two bowls of rice a day and live in company dorm rooms? Why would corporate men do that? The mantra is profit above all. A livable or decent nation with a middle class isn't their goal at all. And long term? The market guys don't do that anymore. I think it's going to be grab-the-loot and run. IBGYBG act two.
It's not brain science-if you are not inventing the next big thing or improving what USA has invented then consumers aren't going to buy your product. And really, how many cellphones and cars etc do people really need?
Maybe back to the future when USA was an economic powerhouse and inventing and putting franchises on everything except their internet invention. (big mistake - kindness doesn't pay the bills.) Government debt climbing and the rich are getting richer so tax the rich to pay for research and development and give grants to start businesses or the government should do what our government does, buys shares in promising NZ start ups, like Datacom, and invest in kiwi businesses. You have to invest in your own citizens if you want economic growth. Where are the incentives and government loans and grants to help the businesses ALREADY IN THE USA, to expand and export.
Someone needs to compare and contrast what USA was doing when they were an economic powerhouse and government debt was low; to what is happening today in the USA.
The higher government debt gets the higher the interest rate from your borrowers as you're seen as a risk for lenders.
Research and Development and laws to stop new start up businesses in China would be somewhere to start.
1
The current occupant of the White House, a businessman by all accounts of limited vision and poor success, has through poorly thought-out economic "policies" done much to destabilize world markets and to alienate our allies. Questions arise as to how western economies and internal political forces will respond to lagging growth and how countries will fill the "gaps" generated by the ineptitude and isolationlist policies of this administration. I fear we will have to weather quite a few storms before this is over.
8
Trump is probably blue about the stock market, it seems to be the most important economic indicator to him.
1
Don't rub your hands in glee that Trump will necessarily be hurt by this. In case of economic collapse, he's been grooming his fall guy for the last year: The Fed, who he excoriated for raising interest rates (which is of course what the Fed is supposed to do during a boom economy), and then for not dropping those rates more and faster in recent weeks.
Of course he and his acolytes will never acknowledge the damage done by his trade war or his massive budget deficits. This is the glory of portraying yourself as an "outsider," always fighting the evil forces of "insiders" and the "deep state" (aka our government's longstanding institutions). An "outsider" always has someone else to blame.
We'll see if it works. Perhaps if workers hurt long and hard enough, his finger-pointing will eventually lose its magic. In the short term though, get ready to see his approval ratings continue to coast in the low-40s, as they always have — juuuust enough to win the presidency in an electoral system rigged to favor the GOP, if juuuust enough Dems decide not to rally around the eventual nominee. Which btw is why Dems better get ready to rally — hard — around the eventual nominee.
10
Cool. So, I'm not so great with economics, but if I'm following the patterns, this is when we cut taxes and lower interest rates again, right?
6
Is it just the fickle nature of economic cycles that burns the economy down every time there is a Republican administration in Washington? Could it just be coincidence? Errrr, no.
22
@John David James
No, it's neo-liberal (that is CONSERVATIVE) bankrupt ideas that do this. They know they can get away with it and they now someone else will clean up the mess in time for voters to forget and then vote them in again.
1
Trump followers may be willing to forgive him if, as he pointed out, he shoots someone on Fifth Avenue, but not so if the economy tanks. His luck may finally be running out.
11
Market volatility is slightly above average. It is measured by the VIX, which is at 21. During the 2008 recession, it reached 80. There is a consistent pattern whereby the business section exaggerates the fear of recession. They have have been suggesting that it is on the horizon since November 2016. I wonder why that is?
3
@michjas
When you have the longest economic expansion on record EVER, it is logical to consider that the expansion might come to an end.
Unless Congress repealed the business cycle, this expansion will end too. Did I miss that repeal effort? There have been so many ...
With a guy who has very poor economic understanding making decisions announced by tweet, it only takes one "blooper" to cause serious problems.
Oh, wait, ... Trump has committed quite a few "bloopers" so far.
2
@michjas, is it your point that the business sector, recently engorged through Trump trillions of tax cuts mainly for the rich and corporations, is secretly plotting against their benefactor? The low-rate demands make them mad? The audits of the poor offend their human sympathy? So now perhaps they'd like the democrats to raise taxes and succor the sick and aged? I don't think so. I know he said he was the most mistreated man in America-- but he isn't really.
2
A tanking stock market will likely do more damage to Trump's re-election campaign than anything the DNC is capable of mustering at this point.
975
@Arctic Vista I'm all for it. Whatever serves as the bucket of ice water to snap us out of this intoxication half the country has suffered from in recent years. We have survived many, many recessions and even a Great Depression. I'm genuinely concerned, however, that our republic as we know it won't survive two terms of Trump.
310
@Arctic Vista This might be true but I don't know is Trump's base will care about the stock market tanking. The damage done to our economy is not something they're able to grasp.
136
@Arctic Vista Trump's base doesn't know about stocks. They won't budge over the stock market.
91
What do people expect from a guy who bankrupted six companies? The man couldn’t even make money running a casino. He’ll do to America what’s he’s done all his life, leave a trail of destruction and walk away smelling like a rose blaming it on any and everyone but himself.
42
@FXC. He won't be walking away smelling like a rose if he gets voted out in 2020. He'll be dragged out of the White House kicking and screaming to face indictments for obstruction of justice. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
4
And so the next major recession begins. And for what? To satisfy a criminally-minded malignant narcissist's ego. It's utterly senseless and this tragedy is squarely on the Republican's shoulders for not impeaching this incredibly destructive and divisive President. His damage to the economy will be very hard to undo once it kicks in for good.
24
Trump will no doubt be blaming Obama for this mess before the week is out. Anyone with a brain (leaving out Trump, of course) could see that Trump's incompetence was leading us to economic problems. Now the rest of the world as well as the USA will suffer the consequences. Trump's rich buddies don't care, of course - they got their billionaires tax cuts, which is why they paid for his election in the first place.
13
Trump will blame immigration and fill the Ignorant Electorate with Fear and False Hope.
3
Who is surprised that trump is going to bankrupt America just as he bankrupted his casinos and other companies? Bankruptcy isn't a bug in his "business" plan; it's a feature. Now we all get to crash with him. Thanks, Republican enablers. Your silence will make great campaign ads next time you try to run for office.
18
I'm really tired of winning.
22
Anyone look at this president’s current twittering? Classic. Completely drives home almost everyone’s comments....
13
It's the season.
2
As of this writing, the DJIA is down 733. The market has been volatile on a daily basis for quite some time. It could make up this loss in a day or two or it could be a sign of things to come. Worth watching, for sure.
6
Trump is doing the same thing to the country that he did to his businesses. Does anybody think he will do well in a crisis?
10
If you are an investor and you are feeling the urge to safeguard your investments, instead of Treasury Bills with their declining Yields, try investing in companies here in America, safe from foreign risks in other nations. Perhaps the safest place now is in American companies with no holdings in foreign lands.
Lest we not forget, this from the man who once proclaimed, I love debt! Trump has no idea, is totally out of his league with how international monetary policies are interconnected and function. That his party, the Re·pug·nant·cans have allowed a massive tax break to occur which has failed to stimulate significant growth and the ballooning deficit will be their legacy long after this tyrant is out of office, hopefully.
8
Trump actually told us that there would be suffering. I’m sure he doesn’t know, but after the global recession that he caused ends, how will Americans be better off than they were before Trump’s trade wars? Assuming nothing fundamentally changes in the US economy and society, like investment in education, training, and technology to make us more productive, will the standard of living in the emerging nations rise to ours, or will ours fall towards theirs? The US middle class has been in decline for 40 years. I expect more of the same.
7
So now I really want to know what was said at the Southampton Captains of finance Fund raiser Trump attended last Friday. Who is initiating the market movements? Attendees possibly? I find it highly inappropriate that the sitting President attended a meeting with the figures of Wall Street in what might be a conspiracy now. Did you wonder why I called them "The Trump Wall st Administration? Were there any fossil fuels industry figures there? Publishing a roster of known attendees would be valuable to look for patterns and players down the line or behind the scene.
20
Which is it? First we are told that the Trump tariffs really do not affect China, only us. Now we are told the tariffs do affect China and now even Germany. So, Trump gets the blame for the recession we are told is coming. Trump was not getting the credit for the economic growth we have had. Obama deserved the credit according to CNN. How about the economic cycle getting the blame for the bad and the credit for the good and not any persent or past president? Aside from blame, we now have to decide how we ride out the expected recession. I also wonder if the talk of the recession is a self fufiling prophesy: in short, we did it to ourselves. Here is a thought. Instead of obsessing over impeaching Trump and the never ending investigation of Trump, congress could pass infra structure legislation and other needed legislation that would stimulate our GDP and help us either avoid a recession or at least mitigate the downturn. In short congress could actually try to be constructive.
4
@Bian Passing infrastructure legislation would require that Republicans vote for it. They won't. they have not. They have fought it tooth and nail. If you want responsible government, vote for Democrats.
2
We should blame "the economic cycle"? Why, what did it do? (Hello? Anyone home? Economies are run by people!)
2
We are running a trillion dollar deficit this year. How would you like to pay for it?
4
The economy is fine. This is fake news. Everything is grand, and the trade war is going great and is real easy. No problem.
But if the economy goes downhill, it's Obama's fault.
11
Under the best circumstances impacts on the economy are a vast unknown. It's not for nothing that economics are called the "dismal science." The current administration seems to be running the economy with blinders on, strictly for short term political gain. It looks as if we are going to soon be "paying the piper."
6
Just yesterday, Trump announced that he would delay implementation of additional tariffs against China until mid December. Supposedly, he wanted to spare American consumers higher costs over the holiday season. Today, the real reason for his change of mind is much clearer: a recession is in the offing. Trump has been kept afloat by a strong economy (thanks, President Obama), but a recession, especially one so closely tied to Trump’s ineffective economic policies, will seriously damage his re-election chances. Trump’s political survival is the only thing that matters to him. Buckle your seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
14
I hope that when the Republicans call on us taxpayers for another bailout, we're wise enough not to do it again! Let the abusers of the market suffer the consequences, and bail out people with rising debt instead.
The way to jumpstart the economy is from the bottom up as we saw in our recovery from the Great Depression, the recovery that lasted us for decades, not the few years until the next Democrat -> Republican cycle. The current methods only make us keep spiraling downward. "Trickle down" economics has never worked for the long term. Investment in our people, infrastructure and public lands and services has.
9
I am waiting fro Trump, Pence, McConnell, et. al. to say "The fundamentals of the economy are strong". The last time a Republican utter that exact phrase was John McCain, the very day America realized they were in the onset of the Great Recession. The Dow dropped nearly 900 points while John McCain uttered those words. The 11th anniversary, when he uttered these words is coming up, 15 September, 2008.
Just two months later, voters elected Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. By then, the GOP created recession was about 11 months old, as the Bush Administration withheld the fact that the recession started in December, 2007.
Today, we have another Republican in the White House, and he and his party, are about to repeat history, With probably even a worse one, the the Great Recession.
And, like then, the US deregulation was responsible for bringing down the world economy. the first time by greed; the second time by ignorance of how the fundamentals of the economy work.
16
Don't think for a moment that investment bankers are losing sleep over these wild gyrations in their market. They have prepared to sell short ever since Trump started his trade wars. But as was asked during the Great Depression, where are their customers' yachts?
5
I agree with Bill Maher. No one likes recession, but if it unseats trump it will be worth it. We recover from recession - won't recover from 4 more years of crime and destruction of trump regime
20
For Trump's re-election, this is virtually the only thing that matters.
I cannot tell you the number of Trump supporters I know who basically say "the economy is booming, don't rock the boat, and I don't care what kind of crazy/thievery/evil he does otherwise."
Next to them are all of the people that say "the economy is booming, that's proof he's a genius" and then don't look in any way critically at all of the mistakes he is making and disasters he is creating.
The first group will instantly change their allegiance if the economy goes south. They care only about their wallet, and will vote him out based on that, although they'll no longer care to give him cover for other things.
The second group will split in two. The first segment will blame the economy on "the libs" that won't let Trump do everything he wants (or else on "cycles" which no one can control) and that's it.
The second segment, I think the larger segment, will blame the economy on Trump (the tax cut, the trade war, and an unwillingness to make a deal or find compromise in other areas). When they do, they'll also look at everything else with new eyes, and begin to see that he declared victory over North Korea and then retreated, that his actions on climate change are damaging everyone, now and for hundreds of years, that his mindless deregulation is helping no one but the very rich, that his tax cut helped no one but the very rich, that his immigration actions are evil, that he committed obstruction...
12
Trump has been putting his stamp on our politics, our economics, and now on the financial markets - a stamp of irrationality, brashness and deep underlying insecurity.
7
This economy has been strong not because of the Trump Administration's policies, but despite them. Only a matter of time before the other shoe drops.
9
The price of stock now depends primarily on monetary policy - a lifted eyebrow of the Federal Reserve Chair can send it up and down hundreds of points.
The recent slide may be simply the fact that the players realize that the Fed is running out of options - the trade war is simply a trigger point
The Central Banks have pursued a policy where you now can borrow money in some EU countries at negative interest rates. Yes, negative - the bank pays you money to borrow money to buy a house.
Capitalism is based on the assumption that capital is a prized resource, handed out by a competitive market place to those most able to use it.
That system has broken down. No one knows what will be next
4
@Carl
Financial feodalism
OMG, enough will all the winning. My retirement accounts can't handle any more winning like this!
21
@Randall
The Dow closed at 18,332.74 on Election Day, Nov. 8, 2016.
Today: 1:30 PM August 14, 2019: DJIA : 25,610.00
Conclusion: In less than three years, even after the current market drop, the Trump rally has provided you with a 39.7% return.
Lat month the DJIA hit 27,398.00.......a gain of almost 50% in less than three years.
Don't blame Trump for your own greed.....and the expectation of a never-ending parabolic stock market.
Yields on the 2 year bond are healthy. It’s the long term bonds that are problematic. The most frightful long term prospect for the market might be recession. But it also could be a progressive president.
1
@michjas
A progressive president? You mean like Obama who cleaned up the mess after the last recession, who brought the country back from the brink of another great recession. Or the progressive president that single handedly saved the US auto industry and put financial safeguards in place in an effort to protect investors from roiling markets. Or perhaps its the president who provided slow but steady growth for his 8 year term and left a financial leg up for the incoming conservative president.
3
Who would have thought... physics says nothing on a finite planet can grow forever.
This is world-wide, and more than just about Trump. We are reaching the point of diminishing returns. Thousands of business owners world-wide are scraping the carcass of an overdeveloped planet looking for gimmicks for people to shell out their money in a desperate search for 'growth'.
We ran out of natural oil in the ground, so we 'frack' out shale at a loss. We sit in traffic all day rather than being productive. We build in flood plains, or where there is no water, in order to keep up housing starts. We print money uncontrollably and need a dollar of debt to create 40 cents of growth. I rarely see an IPO where the company is profitable. We are incapable of living with a stable population, so we promote immigrants to keep coming in regardless of their skills or education.
We are absolutely terrified of a recession now because we know it will collapse this deck of cards. We have already used every weapon we have to keep the party going.
9
@John Dyer ~
There is a LOT of natural oil in the ground. It was the rapid increase in fracking which, much to the demise of many, started under Obama and has caused the price of oil and natural gas to drop such that more traditional resources were not economical.
1
@jhanzel
Fracking for oil and gas has been used for many decades... long before Obama was President.
2
Apparently “make America great again” was based on losing a race to the bottom.
10
Republican stupidity (corruption?) followed by the Democrats having to clean up their mess, is a cycle I’m more than discussed with. We need Warren and a Democratic Congress to get back to reality.
13
Time for a recession and then a succession if Trump mania and Republican dominance remains... enough of this stupidity and backlash volatility already, they don't care about sovereignty or solvency of the average American ... it's destructive, exhausting and inane.
9
"Yield-curve inversions are considered one of the most-reliable leading indicators of recession in the United States, having preceded every economic decline in the past 60 years." Blah, Blah, Blah… I believe the current economic situation is much like the presidential polls in 2016, the majority were wrong, and nobody really had any idea what in the hell was really going on. There has not been any economic situation close to the market conditions we have right now in the last 60 years, so I don't think any of the formerly reliable predictors are a good crystal ball as to where or how the markets go next. Finally, the biggest factor to consider about the markets right now, is that Trump will do anything to keep the economy spun up and at least (looking good) through the 2020 presidential election. He’ll continue to do that by brow beating Powell and the FED into more ill-advised rate cuts, folding to China while declaring a great deal, or he’ll get Mnuchin and Kudlow to cook the books and fabricate a super rosy picture about just how great economic conditions are for the US. I am not, and you should not be worried about a recession until, well, we have a recession. And there is not going to be a significant recession before the election, because Trump's weak ego couldn’t handle it, in addition to his desire to be reelected at any cost, in order to avoid being prosecuted for all his past and current crimes and misdeeds. Trump’s ends always justify his means.
6
Is it raining, is it snowing/
Is a hurricane a–blowing/
//
Not a speck of light is showing/
So the danger must be growing/
Are the fires of Hell a–glowing/
Is the grisly reaper mowing/
//
Yes, the danger must be growing/
For the rowers keep on rowing/
And they're certainly not showing/
Any signs that they are slowing./ - Willy Wonka
5
Oh dear, Donny's billionaire supporters might start thinking the stable genius should have been kept in in the stable shoveling horse manure instead of being put in charge of the U.S. economy.
12
When the recession comes, it will be:
Obama's fault
Hillary Clinton's fault
Jerome Powell's fault
Elijah Cummings' fault
Jason Epstein's fault
Janet Yellen's fault
Justin Trudeau's fault
Beto O'Rourke's fault
Elizabeth Warren's fault
Andrew Cuomo's fault
We may even change the name of Hoover Dam to Trump Dam.
22
. ..and John McCain's fault
1
I expect that by later today, Trump will be nit-twittering that it's SOMEONE ELSE"S FAULT.
Trump's fallback position when he isn't taking credit for things he had nothing to do with.
President Clinton left office with a budget surplus after inheriting a mess from the first Bush, and Obama left a rising economy after the second Bush.
For those new to this, those were Dem presidents who cleaned up the messes the "fiscally responsiblel GOP" left in place.
So this irresponsible behavior did NOT start with Trump. He just compounded it when he was elected by the Phone-Diddle public who really believed a moronic TeeVee show was real life.
1214
@Ignatz The Washington Post article on this topic states that the White House is blaming the Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
So they have their scapegoat already. And the Trump supporters will buy it hook, line, and sinker.
143
@Ignatz Trump Recession is almost here; Trump will blame Obama and his cult followers will chant "Lock her up".
79
@Ignatz. Thanks to his bullying the Fed into cutting its rates, instead of raising them or holding steady, there will be fewer tools to bail out the trump slump and the Donald debacle when they come. He will blame the Fed for that too.
104
I hope Trump's billionaire donors enjoy their larger slivers of a shrinking pie. Just how long did the titans of free markets imagine the global economy would shrug off Trump's contempt for free trade and multi-lateral trading agreements? Did they imagine the Federal Reserve could forever buffer the inane economic policy tweeted out of the White House?
Well, if volatility is your game, then have at it boys. Don't worry, nobody notices how generous and supportive you are with the disgusting man who signed off on your billions in tax relief. The rest of us paying, with uncertain health care, crumbling schools and congested roads, better forego this last shot at cheap import goods and prepare for a rainy season.
7
Unless anyone still has doubts, here we go again, Republicans are about to cause another recession.
If you want a good economy, don't ever vote for a Republican!
9
@Matt
One of the few times the budget balanced.
Conservatives always complain when everything is not free. They never want to pay for anything, even for stuff they say they want.
Great job, Donald Trump! That's what happens when a person is elected who has no government experience and has a history of failed economic businesses.
15
But didn’t you see how brilliant he was on The Apprentice? Just kidding.
I guess the Trump will have to blame Obama and Clinton. Can't have anything to do with his trade policies, tax cuts, deficit spending and destruction of the global economy.
7
Our economy! Who does it serve? It serves about 8 people and their lackey classes on Earth (economists, please do correct this number). Meanwhile back in the lives of the People, housing, education, and healthcare are ruinously expensive. Every transaction has been rigged to send 70% of those ruinous profits to 8 people. Further, this economy is predicated upon the infinite growth curve model of success on a planet that has finite resources. If businesses' bottom lines don't go up every three months, heads roll, and payrolls are cut. Three people are supposed to do the work of one. Benefits are nearly non-existent. Further, authoritarian males all over Earth are trying to force all women to have as many babies as they can pump out. Amazon and their ilk are urging us to buy buy buy, to want it all, and to want it all now. Money, money honey, honey, sweet money. We certainly do our best to keep sending 70% of everything to those 8 people. We are all to blame for this mess. Stop buying anything but real necessities. Recycle, refurbish, renew. Rely on yourself and your friends and neighbors. Rebuild our social and economic life from the ground up. What else can we do?
9
Our beloved president, clumsily stomping around and waving a reactive, emotional tariff policy, may have lost himself a 2nd term.
While he may escape self-immolation by poor and unethical behavior, financial markets aren't forgiving.
Trade policy is driven by the executive branch. This one's on him.
9
Is it obvious to anyone else from reading all the headlines lately that the multi-billionaires that control the world economy are paying Trump to escalate the trade war to trade the petrodollar to Chinese currency?
Trump is now checking off another of Obama's successes he wants to upend, his economic expansion and low unemployment.
All Trump cares about is starting little fires everywhere and then sitting back and watching them burn. Soon he will burn American democracy in the process.
7
Trump says tarriffs, the market plunges. Trump says not till Christmas, the market soars. He plays with the Market as a malicious toddler with a toy. I'm sure someone profits in it, but for him it's the power, watching the serious people scurry when his careless weight is thrown around again. Workers abroad suffer at his whim, farmers here are hurt--he'll throw them a bone. Species shudder, waters are poisoned, and sure there's more. How did one man's power grow so great? He stacks the seats of power with his friends. And the market acts like the dying Camille thrashing around a stage. We're all clapping for Tinkerbell--the day we lose hope will be a bad one. November 2020 can't come fast enough.
11
Wharton? Really? He learned nothing but greed.
7
@Figgie of course we'll never know what DJT learned at Penn because he's blocking access to all of his academic records. The Commander-in-Chief does not have to be an economic genius to grow our economy; he has to incorporate smarter people than he is with such matters. And with the dream team of Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro, I have no doubt by 2020's elections, we'll be screaming for relief from such legendary leadership.
2
@Figgie Of course he is blocking access to his academic records. He is an ignorant bully not a stable genius. He probably didn't get a degree just hung out there with Daddy's money so it looked good.
1
@Figgie - You're surprised by that? Pretty sure that is what Wharton and HBS excel in teaching...
…. and with that, the 'Trade War' is over.... We Lost !!
4
“Trade wars are good and easy to win.” 3/2/18 DJT
6
It seems that humans have to go into self destruct mode every so often.
A huge segment of the population went hook-line-and sinker for Bush’s Iraq war.
Those who tried to warn us were savaged as unpatriotic or worse.
And now we have a self proclaimed “stable genius” who is literally trash-canning all of the principles that America was founded on to move us to an authoritarian model, and a large part of the country follows blindly along.
It seems that bullying others can be satisfying, even if it kills us.
5
Trump's economic miracle is as phony as his business acumen. Does "two cars in every garage and two chickens in every pot" ring a bell? Finally, something that the fair weather Trump supporters could understand, the collapse of their retirement savings. Trump and the GOP are toast as the financial recession sets in.
4
We know Trump had shown incredible losses in his own financial dealings. What about Mnuchin and Kudlow? Trump's best and brightest economic advisers? How do they explain this?
4
If China is a monetary manipulator, then
Trump is a market manipulator.
2
Why is it that the Democrats have to always bail-out the country when the Republicans deliberately mismanage our economy and continue to irresponsibly give tax cuts to the people who need them the least ?
Quick review for just this century alone:
$2 Trillion dollar plus (unfunded) war with Iraq that had nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks-Republicans.
$1.2 Trillion tax cut for wealthiest over ten years (Bush-Republicans)
$1.4 Trillion tax cuts for the wealthiest over ten years(Trump-Republicans)
People, this is real money !! A trillion dollars is one million million dollars. That's the budget deficit for this year alone. Don't buy into this insane and dishonest Republican double-speak.
WE CAN DO BETTER - WE HAVE TO DO BETTER.
7
This is what happens when Mr. Trump can't file for bankruptcy.
6
Stable genius my foot.
8
can the recession just start already? 3 years of talking about it has gotten stale
1
Can the Wharton School rescind his degree?
6
The crash cometh.
The only good news is that it might help get rid of Trump.
9
This really underscores why no one person should be able to undo trade deals on whim, especially when he/she is ignorant of economics and is a bully to boot.
9
It's time to start calling Trump what he is; the Failure in Chief.
5
I’m tired of so much winning!
4
America is just another casino for Trump to bankrupt. Hold on to your retirement accounts!
8
Trump INHERITED a thriving economy from Barack Obama. Trump has been destroying the economy and dismantling our democracy.
Get ready folks, the Trump Recession will be a dozy!
7
We need some insight into Trump's meetings with rich people just as much as with Putin.
5
Reagan, H.W., Bush II ALL led to severe recessions! Clinton and Obama had to rescue our economies! What is it that the “geniuses” on Wall Street not get?!
5
Poor trump! He adores money, but it won't love him back. Investors want profit, they don't care about his ego. The stock market won't flatter him by staying at 'an all time high' just to please him. The economy WILL react to his trade war idiocy, no matter how he dictates.
He is good at corruption, greed and hate, but his life-long business record is filled with bad decisions. He's NOT the business genius his base believes him to be, and his daddy's not here to fix it for him. Nor is Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, DuetcheBank or "Moscow Tower" Putie, for that matter.
725
@deb
He's saving money by shutting down the goverment agencies, like Environment, Weather, Agriculture, Census Bureau, etc. etc.
15
@deb Just to be clear, Putin actively wants America to fail. Putin most certainly won't do anything to help fix our situation, and any advice he's giving Trump is surely detrimental to our well-being.
37
@G That's not "saving" money. It's neglecting the needs of the country to cover his gambling debts (read: trade war).
30
Sadly there's no surprise here.
A failed business person like Trump, who has bankrupted so many business ventures that he can no longer get loans from American banks, is ruining a resurgent American economy Obama rescued from the Great Recession.
16
Who knew that international trade, tariffs, taxes, and so forth could be so complicated?
8
I agree with some of the comments that Trump didn't directly cause the coming economic storm.Economic policies enacted by the Republican party, starting with Reagan, had more to do with it.The steam from the Obama- led recovery was bound to run out sooner or later.The problem is that the president and his economic advisors(Kudlow etc.) have no idea what they're doing.It's like 12 year olds trying to fly an airplane.Automatic pilot (the recovery) gets them by in sunny skies but they're helpless and frightened in turbulent weather.Trump has no policies other than to talk big and promote himself.Bashing Central American asylum seekers at the border(less than 0.1% of the US population) isn't going to cut it this time.If the general public ever learns that Trump has been trying to build a luxury hotel and golf course golf in Indonesia with money from a state-owned Chinese investment firm, even his supporters might become a little skeptical.Of course, as world economies worsen he could always try blaming Obama.He will never understand that talk alone will not solve serious problems. Particularly on the world stage.Trump has said" I can be more presidential than any president this country has ever had except for Lincoln."Right!......I guess we'll see about that.I only hope it's not too late.
5
@Iamcynic1
It only looks like they don't know what they are doing bc your lens views that an economy should benefit everyone, even the 99%.
But if you consider that T and the Republicans have as their goal to enable the upper 1% and themselves to grab ALL the money at all costs, and as quickly as possible, through the pillaging of the US Treasury, the sucking of the economic life force out of the bottom 99%, then, from that perspective, they are doing a bang-up job and know EXACTLY what they are doing, and extremely efficient at it !!!
"Trade wars are easy to win" - uniformed President Trump
And keep in mind that the stock market is dropping on top of Trump badgering the Fed to cut interest rates even while he touted a "tremendous" economy.
11
The Stable Genius is about as stable as the market.
12
I see the Trump Wall st Administration strategy; they want Americans to move their money back into our nation from foreign investments they are risking under foreign governments. Trump's trade wars are all about creating uncertainty which has had the effect of bringing money back here as shown today with some moving money from stocks into Treasury Bills. It all appears to be a calculated policy by the Administration. Manufacturing wasn't returning so now the investments will.
1
@PATRICK
The economic principle of comparative advantage is completely foreign to him.
1
@PATRICK
NOT THAT SIMPLE! You're ad hoc rationalizing; Trump isn't calculating, he's creating a world crisis in order to declare even more unConstitutional Executive authoritarianism and distract from his upcoming impeachment and criminal prosecution.
Any American money that is "moved" back to the U.S. will be a target for Trump and his cabal to pillage. They will steal it to offset huge deficits, spin it to ignorant Americans and leave office as billionaires instead of multi-millionaires. NOTHING IS RIGHT OR HONEST HERE and they're doing it in broad daylight!
6
So when the market is doing great, Trump takes all the credit.
Credit where credit is due. Right?
"Trump the 25th" strikes again.
7
Germany that rode out 2008 by taking advantage of being the leading economy in the EU faces a situation where they are more vulnerable. Their exports are slowing and their banks are much weaker. The Chinese economy helped the US and the west with its powerful economy in 2008. Now the trade war has made China more likely to work against the USs interest. Chinese economic ambitions are contrary to the USs powerful hegemonic position in the world's financial markets. The US under Trump has wildly stimulated the economy so that Trump can win reelection.
3
I took out student loans in 2011, when the federal interest rate was at 0, and still had to pay 6.8% interest - more than most mortgages at the time. How dare I try to better myself through education (at a public state school) so I can better contribute to society?
My loans are through the government, not private companies. I was hoping that the government would come to its senses and decrease these student loan rates, but I am stuck with them like millions of other Americans. Another recession is coming and my generation (millennials) is still recovering from the last one. Very few of us own homes (I don't), and the ones that do were able to afford them with help from parents/older family members.
Thanks baby boomers and whatever generation came after you, we appreciate the climate change, eroding American values/democracy, crippling recessions, ongoing global extinctions, and possibility of destroying social security (that we pay for you to have but we'll probably never see). All the while removing abortion rights, passing ridiculous bathroom bills, marginalizing the LBGTQ community and making sure our children have the opportunity to be gunned down in the street and at their schools with assault rifles. Perhaps America was "great" when your parents and grandparents sacrificed to make a better world for you, but what is going to be your legacy?
18-29 yr old voter turnout was up 79% in 2018. My generation was the blue wave.
59
@Tom Unfortunately Tom the legacy is the strings have been pulled by a man who cares not a whit for anybody but himself.The damage is so great that those suffering will no doubt will send him on his way in 2020 and hopefully those that follow him will work to repair the damage and somehow find a way to ease the suffering.
14
@Tom the nation needs more of you to come out in 2020. I hope enough voters come out to counter the antiquated electoral college.
13
@Tom
Sorry for your troubles. I have a 24 year old son who is a boat builder. He is engaged to a primary school teacher. Yes, my generation has left you with all the problems you describe. The only thing we managed to avoid was WWIII. On the other hand, you can’t blame all of us. I have never voted for a Republican in my life. I have always advocated for equality and protection of the environment. I hope you can except me at least partially from the problems your generation has been left with, just as I except you from the same problems various members of your generation are contributing to.
10
Again, past is prolouge. We learned nothing from the mistakes that led to the downturn in 2006. Instead, we took the ensuing economic rebound and squandered it with as President Trump said "Let's call it what it is, a tax cut". It was never meant to be tax reform. Add to this tariffs that American consumers will ultimately pay for and the writing is pretty easy to read. President Trump anger by the Feds not dropping interest rates shows how completely out of touch with reality he is. Interest rates gradually rose to keep pace with what WAS a growing, healthy economy. Now, it's nothing but smoke and mirrors.
14
@Randy N. Hate to say it, but you've nailed the player responsible for squandering what was quite a strong economy. With his ego-centric games, he played in the casino of global economics and is losing far worse than he ever did in Atlantic City. The sheer arrogance of his comments and the audacity to think he could tariff the world into economic submission belies his total lack of sophistication when it comes to how the world works. Hopefully this debacle will create some opportunities, the main one being some lucky Democratic candidate should not have any problem tip-toeing into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in 2021. Whom ever it is, the present guy is going to leave lots of low-hanging fruit to be fixed.
29
I hate to be cynical, but I'm having a hard time seeing a bright future. While it is inevitable we will experience a recession, economic cycles are relatively predictable. However, the severity can be controlled with good economic policyl. Given the economic illiterate-in-chief who is running our economy, the severity of a downturn will be devastating. Why? Thanks largely in part to giant tax giveaways to big business and the 1%, we are already seeing the loss of revenues in the Treasury.
A healthy economy needs three things working equally and in tandem; government investment, business investment and consumer spending. Trump, at the behest of the dark money running the Republican party, is driving towards 0 government investment. As these people also run the big corps, they will only investment in that which benefits them personally. That leaves consumer spending to pick up the slack. And that only happens with increased wages and/or more consumer debt (guess which one it will be). But wait, it won't stop there, this is simply setting the table for the dark money behind the Republican party to finally kill Medicare and Social Security.
Trump couldn't manage his way out of a paper bag let alone steer this country out of a recession (he'll just blame Hilary and Obama). And with monsters like the Koch brothers clearly pushing to remake this country into their scary dystopian vision, we may very soon resemble a third world nation as poverty quickly takes hold.
45
@JK
"...this is simply setting the table for the dark money behind the Republican party to finally kill Medicare and Social Security." - and then blaming the Democrats. It happens every time.
6
Sometimes I don't like my reaction to Trump's election. I am so afraid of his reelection that a recession may be the best thing for this country. A recession will help many people see through Trump's lies and if the economy hurts them, they will turn away from him. I feel badly that in some ways I hope for a recession, it's not something I'm proud of.
81
@Linda Sometimes you have to destroy something in order to build something better. If it takes a recession in order for trump's supporters to see through his lies and to understand how unfit he is for his office, then so be it. I know many will be hurt by a recession but many are being hurt now and our country and everything we once stood for are being destroyed. As a retiree, I will definitely suffer from a recession but not as much as I suffer now from seeing the destruction he has brought about.
14
Too bad Wall Street couldn't live with the Barack Obama slow but steadily rising growth. No, that's too long term. And of course we needed a tax cut for the wealthy to stimulate an already growing economy. And a trade war to show just how tough we Americans are! Wall Street was all in for Trump. How do they feel now? Unfortunately we are starting to see. I hope for everyone's sake that we can correct what this genius president has done to destroy the world economy.
1393
@Bearded One THAT OIL in The Arctic Refuge is going to stay in the ground permanently. This great country must lead the world in clean energy, not more fossil fuel tech. The fossil fuel industry is to blame for our dire climate crisis. We need to say no to the Oil industry and its' greed to destroy. Alternative energy like solar, wind and more are the wave of of future!
96
Well, ANWR drilling was actually the excuse Paul Ryan used to pass the massive tax cuts. He claimed in the budget projections that 15 trillion would be made up for from ANWR. At the time and likely still today, Exxon and other fossil fuel giants said they weren’t interested. It’s too expensive for the return on investment to drill there. The entire idea of drilling in ANWR right now is being promulgated by Trump administration to fluff the numbers and chest pound. Let’s not forget Ryan’s profound fiscal irresponsibility in that excuse for a “budget.”
79
The year 2120 is going to look more like 1820 than 2020.
49
Like Yogi Berra said, "this is deja vu all over again". Clinton cleaned up the Reagan-Bush welfare for the rich mess and W squandered it and gave us an even bigger mess with more welfare for the rich and it fell to Obama to right the economic ship. Now comes Trump, a true ignoramus spouting idiocies like "it easy to win trade wars", aligned with a party that, despite years of evidence to the contrary, clings to the self-serving kool-aid of the Laffer curve and crackpots like Navarro. And he institute an even bigger welfare for the rich program.
Madness has been described as repeatedly making the same mistake while hoping for a different outcome.
66
Does anyone think that an economy headed towards the one we had at the end of the last republican administration is enough to convince all those Americans loyal to our president that he might just be incompetent? Probably not...
32
It's about responsible stewardship. Trump and his Republican enablers have been juicing the economy by borrowing like mad, but what tools remain when things slow down, as they must eventually? The inevitable crash, which will happen regardless of who is president, will be much worse than it might have been.
20
I am convinced that Trump is fed up with the Presidency and wants out---what else could explain one boneheaded move after another---not that his entire presidency has not been boneheaded, but, tanking a strong economy---that takes a special talent--which, he does have a lot of experience with.
12
Time for Republicans to jump into action and dream up some new lies to try and pin the blame on Democrats.
17
This approaching economic calamity will be on Trump’s “dime” : Donald’s Depression, a/k/a the Terrible Tariff Tumble.
17
What happened to the rosy picture painted by Trump and his administration about future economic and job market growth……………is it all imploding or was just smoke and mirrors? A failed economy and recession will end Trump’s tenure as POTUS and chances for re-election. I t will also accomplish what his supporters, the GOP and the Electoral College failed to do in the first place and that was to keep and incompetent, divisive, pathological liar and hateful person out of the oval office.
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@A.A.F.
Where do you see our economy imploding..GDP growth positive, unemploy,ent near 50 year lows...go get a job!
Another 'win' for the administration.
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This market must be either a day trader's paradise or worst nightmare! Which is it, do you think? How about long termers? What are they to make of it -- or do, if anything?
3
Republicans are in control of our economy so buckle up Buttercup a recession is coming your way .
It never fails whenever there’s a Republican in office the economy crashes . Between Trump and his really good for the consumer Tariffs . Coupled with the trickledown tax breaks for the rich. Oh and let’s not forget shall we the trillions of dollars deficit he has us in hock for . What else could happen but economic collapse.
Any chance we can have the election before 2020 so we can get a Democrat in office to Clean up the Republican mess . ‘ Again’
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Perhaps the obligatory Republican recession will arrive sooner than expected? Maybe just in time for election season.
23
I retired recently. My closely watched RC Cola / Moon Pie Index persuaded me several weeks ago to shift my retirement portfolio from 10% short-term reserves, 45% bonds, and 45% stocks to 12% short-term reserves, 48% bonds, and 40% stocks. About 90% of all bonds and stocks combined are in index funds. I know this is conservative and forgoes some growth in the long run; but I needed to sleep at night, and in the long run I'm dead. (My late uncle used to say that personal finances ought to be like an Army bridge; the whole thing collapses just after the last truck in the column reaches the other side. Would that I could predict and time things so well.)
15
Stop moving your cash from stocks into Treasury Bills. That's just what the Trump Wall st Administration wants. It's all a scam to create hysteria ultimately showing a favorable federal budget they want to win on. We are "The Little People" and the Republicans are treating us that way. Would you want your money in a government the Administration is sabotaging?
4
No one wants to see the Trump recession end the Obama expansion. No one wants the deficits explode as our already GOP-slashed federal tax revenues are further reduced by a shrinking economy. No one wants to hear Donald Trump railing against the Democrats for not giving us deeper tax cuts (Kansas, anyone?) and for not agreeing to absolutely no regulation of corporate behavior. No one wants to read his Twitter-blathers about firing the entire Federal Reserve Board so he can install puppets. No one wants to see American carnage. But we might.
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@Mike Iker No one? Really? There will again be winners in this recession. Short sellers and vultures who could freely move into cash and will now swoop down on low priced stocks and real estate.
3
The bond market has been looking like a deflationary cycle could be in the works. Good luck Fed, trying to hold it off.
4
Recession talk surely begets a recession.
History will describe President Trump’s economy as a strong President Obama’s economy that ended with a blunder after a blunder as far as President’s Trump policies took hold.
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@freeasabird: What bird? The ostrich?
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45's reckless trade war against all is the salient reason of the market collapse and the slip into a global recession. The balance is due to his tax break euphoria and huge budget deficits which have only temporarily brought respite to the middle and lower classes. In other words this unreal economy is teetering and, as it did in 2008, the stupidity originated in the US.
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@Baboulas
Yes but it originated with Republicans.
22
Republicans gave their class a large tax cut then paid for it with tariff taxes on the rest of us. Now they are offsetting the deficit more by deliberately promoting chaos in the news leading to movement of vast sums from stocks into the treasury.
13
The global economy has been built on a house of cards for many years. Negative real interest rates, and now nominal negative interest rates, have driven the stock market to unsustainable levels.
The insane increases of the price level on housing, automobiles and health care have crowded out savings and consumer spending. Consumer debt levels are in the trillions and a lower educated workforce costing the social system trillions more.
The coming storm will not be pretty. It's not Trump's fault but the so called professional politicians and economists who are dumber than a rock. Nothing lasts forever and the piper is calling.
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@Jon Galt Educated workforce! They wouldn't want anybody educated (read, pricey) in the workforce, now would they?
1
There are two article on one issue at the same time in this paper. Is it coincidence or deliberate ?
The economic growth of any country should purely depend upon the prosperity of all citizens rather than few individuals, who own big business.
The points one should always ponder are
1) whether education levels of citizens have increased thereby upping the prosperity.
2) Whether adequate and suitable employment opportunities are provided to the citizens based on their qualifications ?
3) Whether basic facilities such as child care and healthcare are properly taken care of ?
4) Whether employees are provided with house rent allowance, city allowance, commuting allowance, maternity leave and paternity leave, medical allowance and leave travel allowance etc ?
5) Whether college education of citizens affordable ?
6) Whether adequate public transportation is provided ?
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@Sivaram Pochiraju Have you lived in the US lately?
On the other hand, how does India stack up with these metrics?
1
@Doug Lowenthal : Thanks. India is better in providing all the perks mentioned by me. In addition they get deafness allowance and annual increment even in the public sector. In private sector it depends upon firm to firm. Big firms provide plenty of facilities to employees whereas smaller firms provide few facilities.
For your information, India’s population is more than thrice that of America. America is said to be the richest economy whereas India is a fast rising economy.
1
@Sivaram Pochiraju You're thinking democratic socialism. We are cutthroat capitalism here.
1
I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop economically for some time. we are beyond a bubble in the markets which are moving more on emotion than fundamentals. Our tremendous deficits and trade wars aren't helping. America has been on a drunken binge of tax cuts and failure of trickle down--the piper is demanding his due.
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" the markets which are moving more on emotion " But that has been utterly true for 30 years now regarding the markets. It is too easy I sense a recession is coming because there is always a recession coming -- it is just a matter of how many years. It is like saying I predict rain in the next month.
4
Sorry, but these truisms are even more true in the Trump administration. the presidents mercurial temperament and repeated bullying of the FED to keep rates high to buoy his reelection prospects are not healthy moves to preserve the stability of markets.
11
We dont disagree about Trump whatsoever. Your comment seems to combine two ideas that are valid on their own but aren't quite related.
I am not an economist and cannot talk intelligently about the significance of an inverted yield curve or other harbinger of the future of the economy.
But I know what my family does with its money and. It has mostly been a good indicator to me.
As retirees, our savings earn basically nothing these days. The little money we have in the market is up 2% at 9:30 am and down 2% by market close, yo-yoing at the mercy of Wall Street algorithms. We cannot plan ahead. So, we cut spending.
We cancelled our annual summer vacation this year and my son, who lives in California just informed us that his Xmas visit this year is “not in the cards”. That’s around $10 to $12000 that we will not be spending this year.
And I am sure that we are out the only ones cutting spending.
That’s enough for me to predict that we will have a recession before the 2020 elections.
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@DJ
We don’t need predictions.
Every Republican President for the last century handed Democrats a recession. We don’t need to predict, we need to end Citizens United and return the dollar to a stable bank note like before the Federal Reserve Act of 1914. Billionaires are playing our entire economy like a casino with beneficiaries.
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@DJ
Tighten your belt and fasten your seat belt, its going to be a wild ride.
3
@DJ I decided I have enough clothes and knickknacks. I'm not paying for Trump's tariffs by buying a bunch of stuff. I'm only buying necessities until Trump is out of office. Food. Pet food. Toilet paper. Books (because most authors don't make much money and need all the help they can get.) I refuse to pay more because of Trump's economic follies.
11
It was just a matter of time before the cracks created by Trump’s trade war began to show. I worried that between Trump’s bullying of the Federal Reserve and the fizz created by the tax cuts, the cracks would remain hidden until after the presidential election. Glad it’s happening now so that everyone is clear who is responsible.
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Consumer debt is at an all-time high. People just can't buy more and more "stuff". Absolutely no one should be surprised that after 10+ years of stimulus that consumers simply can't absorb any more debt.
Trump and various economists want to raise inflation so that debtors don't have to pay back the value of their debt. But that's a zero-sum wealth transfer from those with savings to those with debt. Trump himself is a perfect example since his money is highly leveraged in real estate and stands to make huge gains from inflation.
30
Capitalism seems to want to find out the lowest amount of money that people will be willing to get up and go to work for.
Each recession, people are laid off, which seems to present a new opportunity to hire people back later with fewer benefits, part-time, with a lower salary.
I fear for what things will be like in the next round, things are already bad now, and at the moment it’s supposed to be a good economy.
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@PNicholson
Adam Smith and other Classical economists described this effect (and classified a host of other market failures, like the fact that the cost of pollution is not reflected in the price so the market creates too much of it).
It was inconvenient for mega rich shareholders to have economists explain the market failures they we manipulating to get rich, so they paid a bunch of economists to invent Neo-Classical Economics which says the market its always right and government should never do anything except cut taxes on the rich.
Adam Smith, the father of economics, who studied markets fifty years before the word capitalism was invented, called getting paid for owning stuff "rents" and was against it. Rents are profits and Adam Smith thought that profits were a form of corruption.
The Invisible Hand was based on the interplay of small businesses people who got Gains from Trade by specializing to become more efficient.
The owners of capital bought controlling shares in all of mass media so they could convince us that favors from the government, like special tax treatment, tax cuts, subsidies, regulations designed to hurt small competitors, and large government contracts are not an interference in the markets, but somehow makes them free.
Notice I don't need socialism to criticize capitalism. I only need market economics and the desire to understand tree definitions of words amid use logic to contract them.
Neoclassical Economic and "Capitalism" are a lie.
13
Expansion financed by debt is not "Growth".
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"Rising Concern About Growth." That corporate investors need to see constant non-stop "market growth" or else they signal "concern" IS the problem.
15
Admittedly not a stock market analyst or broker but for all who are living outside a safe bubble should a recession hit, what about their financial well being? Hoping for a recession, deep or otherwise to defeat Trump does not harm only Trump supporters but the other Americans who live in flyover states or outside major Democrat strongholds who did not vote for nor support Trump.
If a deep recession hits, there will be layoffs and pullback on investments for housing, car sales, retail goods, commercial development, stock market and many other financial transactions.
It is easy to pull for a recession, deep or otherwise, when one has the financial means to survive an economic downturn without suffering life changing financial harm.
If Trump cannot be defeated without a recession, then what do you believe will happen if one does hit? Really think Trump supporters will turn on him? No, they will read comments from celebrities, wealthy families, billionaires and others who advocate for a recession. That will produce a backlash and may be the impetus to create a stronger movement to get out and vote for Trump.
If the Democrats cannot offer a candidate who can defeat Trump without a recession, then the message from Democrats is really in trouble.
Think about it. You may have the means to survive but will other families living paycheck to paycheck be able to survive? They may end up supporting Trump because of a recession.
This is a dangerous message to send.
20
@peddler I agree with you that no one should wish for a recession for political reasons though I disagree that those considering voting for Trump wouldn't ascribe the weakness in the economy to Trump's performance. I'm not talking about his loyal supporters who will never see no wrong but those on the fence which is the swing vote that matters.
Trump has touted his presidential performance by constantly referring to the growing US economy while in office. As a result if it slumps it's hard for him to escape voters holding him responsible for it. Especially considering the damaging effects of his continuing trade war and tariffs with other countries. As always Trump will blame others for the recession such as Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve but voters won't buy it since in the past he's made clear that he alone was responsible for the growing economy.
9
@peddler
Hoping has nothing to do with it. I hoped Hillary would win.
6