So long as the U.S. has an Economic Policy "by Tantrum" the entire World Economy is imperiled. Cause and effect are neither amenable to, nor ameliorated by, ignorance.
8
Stock markets, ideally, should be for investment - not for short term gambling, and especially not for massive computerized microtrading such as is now common for hedge funds and other large investors - or traders - or, in some cases, traitors.
Yes, that's harsh. Deliberately so. Anyone who is only in this game for the money is not doing the world any good.
7
@Planetary Occupant
Support the Robin Hood Tax, .a .0025% tax on each trade, which would slow down High Speed trading.
11
Trump's tariff-taxes did it. Every economist knows trade wars are anathema to the prosperity of countries that engage in them. Before the Donald dubbed himself "tariffman," every economist on his staff and in his cabinet had at one time or another in the past attested two facts: !. Tariffs are paid by and collected from people who live in countries that enact them, and 2, Trade wars are always bad news for prosperity worldwide.
Trump's economic advisors have had to say they now think trade wars are a good thing, but watch them carefully as they repeat the drivel Trump taught them to say, you will see in their faces how much it pains them to spout economic nonsense. They know giving credence to Trump's economic burlesque will be a permanent stain on their resumes and their reputations.
After his tenure is up, Larry Kudlow will probably have to find work at a Chick-fil-A, and Steve Mnuchin will have to settle for peddling vacuum cleaners door to door. If Jerome Powell caves in to Trump's bluster and cuts interest rates, his next job is likely to be cleaning gutters.
The economy is destined to go into a tailspin on the wings of the nation's debt and deficit. If it does so before the 2020 election with the help of Trump's buffoonery, he more than anyone else will be responsible for the election of a socialist or progressive. The devastation such a disastrous turn of events will have on America will be owned by an ex game-show host, living testament to the Peter Principle.
8
Those who put Mr. Trump in the WH know quite well that the health of the stock market is critical to his re-election. That is partly because many in his base have been taking his words regarding the future of the markets seriously.
In January 2018, when DOW broke 25,000 mark for the first time, fervent supporters of Mr. Trump fully accepted his claim that the credit for that should go to him . And, when he said: "I guess our new number is 30,000,” they all rushed to invest their savings, and also as much as they could borrow, in the stock markets.
A market crash, or even a significant correction, will remove trillions of dollars from the market, forcing out many small investors. And, of course, they all will be blaming that on Mr. Trump's unwise economic policies. As such, they become reluctant to vote for him in 2020.
Obviously those who have put Mr. Trump in the WH would like to see the markets stabilize and even climb further to ensure Mr. Trump's re-election. Now the question is: do they have sufficient financial clout to control the markets and make them behave as they wish? The answer is: yes, implying that Mr. Trump's re-election chance is also high.
Looking back, many market observers agree that in the last 30 months markets have come close to a crash at least three times. But, every time the large investors quickly came back and started buying, causing markets to recover within days. And, there is no reason for this time to be any different.
5
Markets go up and they go down. That’s what they do. The headline is a bit on the sensational side. And, as bad as Trump is, and he is in my opinion very bad, his bumbling economic policies are not as significant a factor in the movements of economies as he or the press in general likes to think. After all even if he jacked all tariffs to 25% for the 555 billion worth of goods currently being discussed this would represent .7% of a 19.3 trillion dollar economy. To be sure some companies will be hurt (and naturally they have the loudest voices) but “The End Is Near” sentiment of total collapse is overblown.
This said it would still be better to run that man out of town along with a few other politicians.
5
It was no surprise that the Trump tax "cuts" for large corporations and the wealthy made stocks go up through smoke and mirrors. By decreasing corporate tax, it appeared to increase the P/E ratio without any increase in sales or productivity. Besides making the wealthy wealthier, it substantially increased our national debt at a time we should be paying it down. It appears that this country and the world are getting closer to paying the piper for Trump's tax "cuts" and his tariffs and the general movement towards "conservative" Trump like leaders. I wonder if we are witnessing a deliberate world wide destabilization power play orchestrated by Vladmir Putin.
4
If there's going to be a recession, let it come soon. That way it will make the case clearer in 2020 that this man needs to be voted out, and his idiocratic administration gone.
If it's going to happen anyway, and the signs are surely there, let's at least avoid another 4 critical years we need to begin doing something about, wait, where's the list?
Climate Change
Nuclear Deescalation and Non-Proliferation
Healthcare Reform
Election integrity
Income Equality
Social Equality
Infrastructure
National Cyber Security
Wildlife protection
The Deficit
Not privatizing the VA
And I could write Climate Change 50 more times.
And there are, of course, so many more critically important issues, but it's pretty clear: this administration is screwing up every one of these issues. If the economic pain is coming, then let it at least do something good.
12
@DP: I could not agree with this commentary more. This is a case of Trump`s dereliction of duty; in failing on almost every level to fulfill his oath of doing what is right for his country. Instead it has been three long years of unparalleled disasters as Trump has abandoned the majority of American citizens as he has played to his base at the cost of all the issues mentioned. As a result 59% of the American public (and about 90% of the entire planet) agree Trump is tearing the U.S. in half; and it only gets worse every day. I will never really understand how so many continue to be led like blind sheep to the slaughter. If a recession and economic downturn is the final straw that finally gets Americans to take the blinders off; So Be it!
9
Seems simple...
Versus very-coarse criteria of whether a:
> Half-billion-scale population has a currency – or 2 – that’re widely recognized/used in global trade
1. North America
2. Europe
3. China
4. Pacific Archipelago
> Billion-scale population has the potential to bootstrap to a standard of living like the above 4:
1. South America
2. Africa
3. India
4. China
5. Pacific Archipelago
Several things jump out from this asymptotically-simplified world-view:
> China and the PA can prosper independently of the rest of the world, simply by staying in their lanes. Both have ethnic tensions – though China’s are intranational, while the PA’s are international
> India has similar tensions, but – while things may be changing – let them badly stunt its capital-intensive infrastructural and economic growth. Once resolved, they can proceed a la China or the PA
> SA and Africa would – by history and proximity – tend to ally with NA and Europe, respectively. But all of capitalism and communism and public-sector and private-sector corruption have conspired to fray those alliances
> Normally, alliance cyclicality to be expected – but now is interesting times. China sees South America and Africa not only as opportunity for economic growth – but for (currency/law/banking/language) political and social influence
Though Monroe had no satellite imagery available – he had a land-mass globe in the Oval Office...
Things haven’t changed much since...
The land-mass globe, that is...
1
Stop the stupid tariffs and trying to "win" the international game by squeezing the world market into recession. Instead of trying "fix" markets, gerrymander votes, subsidize the wealthy with the working classes taxes, and encourage the slaughter of the poor, we should rejoin the Paris Climate Accord and offer large tax incentives to Americans who trade in gas-using cars for electric or solar, or who sign up for solar panels or retro fit their houses to be more energy efficient. We could light a fire under manufacturing and help our country, the climate, and perhaps the world economy avoid the recession that will burn another generation. We could build something, not just move money around. I think Elizabeth Warren and other democrats have plans along these lines. The Republicans are the party of yesterday, of no movement, no growth. Time for a change.
10
Why is everyone so upset about the economy? I’m sure Trump has a plan, He’ll probably throw the US into bankruptcy as he did with his businesses. He knows all about tax “avoidance” and exit strategies when the going gets tough. What a guy!
You know, I can’t help but be a little satisfied that Trump is tanking our economy because now maybe the not-so-bright people who put him in power will finally see the error in their way, but, unfortunately, I have to live here too.
16
I can't say that I'd like to see a recession - too many people would be hurt - but if that's the price of taking the wind from Trump's sails and having him lose his re-election bid, it might be worth the cost. He is a cancer on the body politic, and the sooner he's gone, the sooner we can begin to rebuild the esteem and confidence that we've lost globally since he took office.
If we do enter a recession, it will be Trump's supporters who will be disproportionately hurt by it. Do you think that might wake them up to the idea that they've been conned? He might be able to get away with shooting someone on the street in New York, but I doubt he can pick their pockets with impunity.
Hope springs eternal...
12
@Bill McGrath
Well, Bill, the farmers *know they are being royally "hosed" by Trump's Tariffs on food, and, even as they
lose farms and go into foreclosure, very few of them are willing to repudiate Trump out loud and in public. That is one advantage to conning people. Very few people are later willing to admit that they were *so easily fooled into supporting a politician who wiped them out without care or any semblance of sensible reason.
Live and learn, unless denial and false pride prevent the "learning" part .....
2
I don't know about you, but I'm tired of all this "winning."
18
Trump's global trade wars are paying off in spades!
7
Donald Trump was given a winning hand in life and repeatedly blew it. History repeats itself.
You can't teach pigs to sing opera.
34
"Trade wars are good, and easy to win." (US President Donald J. Trump, March 1, 2018.)
We knew how idiotic this madness was when he said it and now here comes the evidence. This president is on a path to destroy the world economy, much as George W. Bush did leading up to 2008.
And yet, we elect these mindless belligerents into positions of frighteningly high power, again and again and again.
22
@John LeBaron Technically, the majority of people didn't elect him.
6
@John LeBaron
Do We? Do we really? With the Russians hacking into our voting machines, of which we are now just learning to what extent, how can we know for sure that the 2016 vote was legitimate? We know Putin wants to destroy us, our economy and therefore our power, and our commitment with our allies. With Trump as our president, it’s like a dream come true for Putin.
5
@John LeBaron. Just like Bush, a Republican President drives the country into economic crisis, and moves toward confrontation and war. Democrats (like Obama) prefer peace and a stable economy, so steady growth, quiet negotiations and real imperfect solutions become the "new" Democrat policy. Republicans criticize loudly without any alternative solutions, but with focused, simple, unrealistic campaign slogans. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell allows nothing to reach the Senate floor for a vote.
Repeat, repeat, repeat.....
8
For the sake of a future of economic and political sanity forthis country... 25th Amendment ..PLEASE??
12
You don't think the Don won't try to revoke the 22nd ?
@Steve Snow...How does President Pence sound, Steve? Not so good, huh.
1
@Albert Edmud
Sounds good enough for one year.
1
Arrogance, ignorance and reckless behavior all have consequences. Time for another supporters rally I'm thinking, in between the golf trips.
8
So Tariffman has finally succeeded in wrecking the global economy. To what end? So he can brag to his MAGA-hatted faithful that he's being tough on China? Germany's recession will not be the only one. Let's see how many Americans become unemployed when our economy tanks. And maybe, just maybe, our Do-nothing Senate will finally do something about getting this bloviating wrecking ball out of the White House.
17
@Christy
And, who benefits from a crippled World Economy ?
If I am Putin, I am dancing like a Cossack ! Trump wrecked it ? Following directions from whom ?
2
Trade war is restoring free and fair trading practices and fear mongering of the trade war that was urgently needed shows no signs of global economic trouble and even if it is it is temporary. Don't expect me to panic and the stock market which panicked yesterday is steadily rising today. Agreed that it is a roll coaster ride and a giddy feeling of those expecting to keep the spoils of a booming economy are naturally frustrated. I am not shedding crocodile tears over BMW car sales going down. I guess those who can afford BMWs can now buy Lexus. How is that a sign of economic trouble.
2
@Girish Kotwal . Well then, it's a great time for you, and all Trump supporters, to buy into this market.
Trust Trump. He'd never lead you wrong.
1
Maybe Mr. Trump is running the country like his business :) sadly, there is no option to file for "bankruptcy " here.
12
A five-time bankrupted businessman who apparently can't read and prefers his gut instincts over Intelligence Reports is making economic decisions affecting the entire world.
What could possibly go wrong?
31
We seem to only talk about the trade war from ours alone. Other countries are slowing as well and that can be felt in China. I don't see asking for balance in tariffs is worthless. I don't see not having to release trade secrets to open a factory is unreasonable. Protecting intellectual property seems like a good thing. It sounded like we were pretty close a few months ago. So we don't have to start at zero each time. As far as Hong Kong goes, it is China's second largest trade partner. They don't want unrest there. We are at a place where both our side lose equally to continue the war and to gain if things are agreed and everybody gets back to peaceful trade. lets hope they see it that way.
2
@Ron: Trade secrets are integral to factories. Move the factory and its trade secrets move with it. Trade secrets are what people do not patent because patents must publicly disclose methods.
7
@Ron If you think the demand to release trade secrets to build a factory is onerous, don't build in that country. No business is required to build in China. Plenty of other places to build.
3
Let's all stand back while Trump folds his tent against China and announces the resulting "deal" as a great victory. Possibly the very best deal ever made in the history of the U.S. trade (based on his extensive personal study). This should take about 6 weeks to unfold I'd predict.
11
Democrats and others who would like to see a stable economy misread Trump's intentions.
Trump essentially doesn't give a hoot about the country. His focus is to feather his and his family's own nest. To do so, he must remain in office, which means mouthing the words that sound good to his base.
Look closely. All of Trump's policies are meant to help the 1% and his beloved bankers who loan him money. The rest is all a con.
19
@dave: Trump rubs everyone's noses in the travesty of losing by 3 million votes and presuming to take office anyway.
Where we live should not make our votes worthless.
5
@Steve Bolger
If you're lamenting the fact that Wyoming has the same Senatorial representation as California or New York, I completely agree. If you're talking about the inequities of the electoral college, I also agree. Unfortunately, the bar is set very high to structurally change those things. Popular vote should of course be the way to go. But it's hard to see the present system changing any time soon.
3
@dave Trump's beloved RUSSIAN bankers
It always bears repeating that Trump managed to bankrupt 3 casinos. Casinos! Owning a casino is like a license to print money but Trump ran them into the ground. It's astonishing that this one-man economic wrecking crew has the power to shove all of us into a world-wide recession.
17
@Hugh CC
Really ! It was like W Bush running TWO *oil companies into the ground IN Texas ! ;-D
1
The USA must hold against China. The Chinese will prolong the trade war in the hope that it will sabotage Trump's reelection bid. They anticipate that any of the demo candidates will curve to their demands. Thus far it was win win for china. They are great in stealing intellectual assets but low in innovation, thus America will prevail. for decades they have stolen our technology and intellectual properties. Their stealth fighter had been designed based on stolen Americas blue prints. Their cell phone, Cars, computers as well as Biothech advances have all been designed along stolen American assets. This must be stopped and the trade war is the beginning of teaching them a lesson. without stealing future American innovation, they are doomed and will lag behind. America has to stand against the Chinese pirates. This is a war and America will win it. Don't let the Chinese dictate the terms.
6
@lieberma: You are way behind the times. Most US educated people cannot compete with foreigners at the graduate levels of its own universities anymore.
7
@Steve Bolger
Your mindset is that of a loser. If many Americans would think like you we will lose the war. Stop winning and behave like a proud American. We are still a superpower and the most innovative country in the world. More than 50% of Nobel laureates are Americans how many Chinese there are?. Change your mind set and Join USA in kicking the Chinese into submission.
2
@lieberma The world is changing.
During 2017 (the latest year available) China filed 1.38 million patents vs. less than half or 606,956 for the US followed by 318,479 for Japan.
As for industrial designs, China filed 628,658 applications, followed by 111,021 for EU, 67,357 for Korea and 46,875 for Turkey. Guess where the US was?
Of all the issues the US Chamber of Commerce in China lists, theft of IP comes as the tenth issue at the bottom.
Looking back in history, every country goes through a stage where they are stealing IP. Yes even the UK, US, Germany, Japan, etc. But once they start accumulating IP, they become protectors of IP.
China should be there soon if not there now. Look into how the new Chinese court for IP is doing. Recent reports suggest US companies filing for IP theft have had a high rate of winning in this Chinese court.
1
I've found that when Trump as right, as he is here with China, the criticism of him is most shrill. Progressive hubris and outrage has become a barometer of his effectiveness.
2
@AACNY - I find that right wingers will make up and cling to any fairy tale they can muster in order to make themselves feel better.
13
@AACNY - "Living is easy with eyes closed.." Lennon/McCartney This quote is a fine example of how Trump supporters live.
10
@AACNY
The louder people complain the more right he is? How about some critical thinking on your own regardless of how loud or soft the critics are?
6
Trade war does not have any effect on American economy, though NY Times tries very hard to create such an impression. Because of the inverted inversion of interest rate Fed can cut interest rate much further to reverse it. What ever is happening in China and Germany is their own making. It is not because America imposed a 10% tariff on a portion of its imports from China. It has not affected overall inflation. It might have increased price on some products imported from China, but consumers can make conscious decision not to buy those products and buy an alternative product. The tariff America is collecting can be used to help our farmers as China stopped to buy our farm produce. Tariff may also increase manufacturing in America helping American workers. So, Trump should continue his trade war with China until China agrees to play fair trade practices and reduce trade deficits. Only Trump can do this!
3
@Alex E Good summary, right up to the obvious falsehood (Only Trump can do this). He took it from Elizabeth Warren's playbook and she would continue the fight.
2
@Alex E. Oh yes, “trade wars are good and easy to win,” and Trump will eliminate the national debt “over a period of eight years.” Reducing taxes on the richest Americans, coupled with increased spending, is an interesting strategy, and could be mistaken for meaningless campaign slogans.
Perhaps if we approached the Chinese with a group of nations who have formed a trade alliance, and controls 40% of the world’s economic output? We could call the alliance the Trans Pacific Partnership....
11
@Alex E I’d like to think our economy is in hands who can get beyond simple slogans like “Only Trump can do this”.
Go bankrupt, repeatedly, running a casino. Only Trump can do this.
6
The alleged trade war is about products the US doesn't send to China due to Chinese trade barriers. If not mistaken, total goods and services to China is approx 127 billion. That represent 0.58% of US GDP and approximately 1 million jobs or about 0.63% of all jobs in the US.
Interesting numbers when you look at the market cap loss in the US markets. What would be the effect of NO Trade with China? Maybe they would sell all their dollar denominated debt they are holding all under 2%. What would be the impact on the USD with the Dollar index at 97.96?
Sounds like a lopsided economic battle
1
@Matt
"What would be the effect of NO Trade with China? "
Well for one thing the semiconductor market would come to an abrupt halt.
The Chinese dominate the market for rare earth's...
2
@John R. Carroll
The semi conductor market would hardly come to a halt.
top 10 semi companies:
1) Intel
2) Samsung
3) Taiwan Semiconductor
4) Qualcomm
5) Broadcom
6) SK Hynix
7) Micron Technology
8) Texas Instruments
9) Toshiba
10) NXP
How many are headquartered in China? The supply chain may move around but not the companies
1
Trump lost money running a casino, to say nothing of his other bankruptcies. Why in the world would Americans have thought he would fare any better in running the country’s finances? He played a financial wizard on TV. I guess for many Americans, celebrity and reality TV are more preferable than reality itself. That’s probably why many prefer Jenny McCarthy’s health advice over their own physician’s advice.
16
Trump and the GOP destroyed our economies of the world probably permanently we better impeach for our Democracy will be next. How these GOP keep getting elected shows the Electoral college needs to end and let the popular voted person who receives the most votes win. That is a true Democracy.
6
@D.j.j.k.: The Electoral College is the most blatant travesty in this fake democracy. Trump's presumptions are only amplified by the falsity of his mandate.
6
What's surprising is not the market's slide, what's surprising has been it's steady rise under Trump. The market seems to have finally realized what credible economists have been saying all along, namely, that Trump knows nothing about macroeconomics, tariffs, international trade, the trade deficit, deal-making, or the importance of maintaining the independence of the Fed.
21
@WmC Why surprised? Trump inherited a perfect, slow-growing economy, much to the dismay of Democrats. He added a tax cut stimulus. Things got even better. Even no inflation.
We Americans are still acting as if we have a middle class. Nobody under 35 has any money except a few (mostly because their families are at the top). They won’t be buying enough new cars to keep auto employment up. Car loan defaults, a canary in the coal mine because they are fixed payments (e.g. $500/month vs credit cards which can be adjusted down to the minimum payment for a while), are not doing badly except among younger borrowers. It is true that delinquent car loans just hit record highs (seven million people are now 90+ days delinquent on their auto loan). However, the share of auto loan borrowers who are three months behind on their payments is now only 4.5%, because the total number of borrowers has risen so much in the past several years. Liar loans are common, as they were in housing last time, and, like 2008, they have been bundled into bonds that will fail. Of course, that also means nobody needs a new car.
So, nobody under 35 has any money, and nobody needs a new car. Everybody except old people is spending now on credit and saving too little for retirement.
5
"Perhaps we should meet?"
Begging for another photo op, and a chance to lie again about "progress" in the trade war with China. And I'm just waiting for Trump to call himself Santa Claus for delaying his increase in tariffs on some consumer products. It's all about the optics, but this isn't a reality show, it actually is the real world. Trump has never been good at that.
10
Nothing will win blue collar voters like blaming Trump for the woes in China and Germany. They love him for it and at a time when our economy is strong, is the time to make re-set the playing field with unfair competitors.
1
It is tempting to attribute blame or credit to economic performance to the president or a particular party. Presidents are quick to take credit for a good economy and the public to blame the president for a bad economy. But it is much more complicated than what we believe. Obama had a republican Congress, Clinton had a republican Congress, Reagan had a Democratic Congress, the Carter economy was abysmal, the Clinton economy went into recession a year after he left power, Bush Jr. ended in the Great Recession (and the measures to handle it were devised by Bernanke at the end of the Bush years, including letting some financial institutions go bankrupt). It seems that there is not enough evidence that the economy can be completely controlled and that we know how to do it. If it was that clear and easy, we would have done it already, and we would have only growth and happiness.
Why does everyone pray to the altar of growth? Perhaps a gradual population decline, a reduction in consumer goods output, and a reduction in extraction of the world's natural resources is just we we need.
20
@Ed Not only needed, but inevitable (except for the gradual part).
2
Trump's red hats should say, "Make 2008 Happen Again".
Trump's trade wars and tariffs have done no one any favors. Perhaps the investment houses that bundle and sell bad debt to other investment houses are making some money.
But Trump's unilateral trade schemes (next target, the U.K.) are directly responsible for the slump in the global economy.
Americans pay higher prices from absorbing tariffs passed on to consumers. They have a $1 trillion deficit (tax break for the rich, bailing out farmers punished by Trump's trade wars) which U.S. taxpayers must pay down.
The drop in bond yields hurts my 93-year old dad, a Depression baby who protected himself with T-bills. Now, he earns nothing from them, is poor and scared.
That Trump called for fair treatment of Hong Kong is pure political cynicism. Fair treatment of any person or sector has never been on his radar.
The U.S. problem with China is industrial espionage, not competition. That should have been Trump's target.
The next President might have to dig the U.S. out of another recession, and re-earn the world's trust.
Vote Republicans out of office in 2020.
32
Looking at the data since 1955, it takes months and sometimes years (the average is 18 months) before the economy goes into a recession after a yield curve inversion. Yield curve inversion seems to be a good predictor but you cannot predict when the recession is going to happen. I am not hoping for a recession to get rid of Trump simply because of all the pain a suffering on the American people. We also need to consider that economics is not a hard science because the unpredictability of human beings, who are the main actors in the economy. If economics were a science, we would be able to predict with precision what is going to happen and when, but that is not the case. In this case, the ones causing the yield curve to invert are investors based on their intuition about the future. For the benefit of humanity, I just hope they are wrong.
5
@3Rs If you aren't hoping for a recession to get rid of Trump, then your priorities are skewed.
1
It’s an opportunity for the genius to reveal his
expert economical background by showing us his taxes .
24
German manufacturing and precision engineering will always be strong and will continue to be an exporter powerhouse. But it's main strengths that has enabled Germany's past strong economy is it's protectionist policies to protect it's industries. That strength created an invincible aura that German prosperity would continue despite what shape the global economy was in. No more as it's competition in many of it's high wages industries have moved much of it's production to eastern European countries and has seen many of it's own industries weakened by Chinese competition. German autos is seeing a major sales drop worldwide and is under attack by the US for preventing US auto exports into Germany with it's 13% tariffs. Perhaps it's only fair that that German car makers are now building their products in the US. Germany has much social issues to address and Europe as a whole will probably be affected by Germany's fast deteriorating performance.
1
Hatred of Trump should not the basis for US policy, and, yet, it seems to be the basis for so many commenting here.
We should not allow China to continue to steal our intellectual property; nor should we continue our unhealthy dependence on China for trade. The alternative, and what many seem to be arguing for here, is the status quo. That's just not acceptable and it's long past the time that a US president should have addressed it.
5
@AACNY
For some of us, this is about a belief that a constant stream of threats, and removal of the US from international trade agreements,is not a particularly effective method of achieving a healthy economy.
And his GOP supporters seem to want a regulation AND tax free operating arena for coporations, yet are supporting a man who acts is if isolationism is his underlying goal. Or at other times, as if he regards everything as an ultimate zero sum war; where it's good if other economies slide into recession or worst.
Economics has a lot of flaws - - - but it's pretty clear that world recessions and high tariffs are not good the the US. That no one can wave a magic wand and make this a prosperous country, if isolated from the world.
5
The Republican recession was due to happen, spurred on by Trumps tariffs, and reckless behavior.It’s a dream come true for the DEMS. Without a Strong economy Trump doesn’t have a chance to win in 2020.
This is a disaster for Moderates, as it opens an opportunity for the radical left to take over, and turn us into a Socialist Government.
Don’t wish for something you just might get it.
2
@Independent1776
Please how do you define "socialism"? Is it ownership of the means of production?
Or is it ensuring that citizens who work full time jobs do not live in near poverty, have unaffordable health care that takes up to 20% of their disposable income, and housing costs that are impossibly high? Is it a society where all of the spoils go to the top 5% of the income distribution is viewed as a moral and political failure?
If it is the latter, then you are a socialist as am I.
10
Right. Let them elect a way left person - the debates have shown us that they are - and then let the Democrats (as distinct from the Social Democrats) pay more taxes, stand in longer lines, wait for their "fair share". You are right - watch out what you wish for when it is driven by animus instead of ideas.
3
@Mike
I had a business relationship with a Swedish Co.when they had a Socialist Government & the Swedish people were taxed 70% of their income, and in return they were taken care of from cradle to grave.One of their Engineers came to the US to work with me on a project.At that time i was driving a Swedish Volvo. I asked him what a Volvo cost in Sweden, he replied Swedes cannot afford a Volvo,This was the trade off, big brother took care of all your needs, but you could not afford
to buy things you would like to have like an automobile, or a home of your own.True this took place in the 60s & I don't know how it is in Sweden today, but the experience left me with a fear of Socialism.I would still take our system over Socialism. I worked hard for what ever I accomplished, and my Auto & home are mine. I don't like to put my efforts in the hands of big Government,I rather, I didn't have to depend on Government, to take care of my every need.
1
Look at the bright side, less C02, less cars and less plastic now and less ignorant bombast and tweeting later, effective Jan 20 2021. The planet and our collective psyche need this.
9
@Mr. B
Right, approvals are underway for a new plastics plat in PA, because -- there is so much excess natural gas that prices are low -- and making more plastic waste is the obvious solution.
If only this slowdown actually meant that. But what it will mean is companies around the world cutting corners, polluting more, etc, to generate product.
1
The inevitable ruinous results of the gross incompetence of the Con Man-in-Chief and his fourth stringer tv blowhard economic advisors are coming to fruition.
If you think the economic damage of Trump and his conservatives is bad just wait until these frauds have to deal with a real international or military crisis.
God help us all.
15
@tombo
I am glad that Americans will attribute the recession to Trump, but it's really due to the fantasy most Americans have that they are in the middle class. Everybody is up to their neck in debt with no savings for retirement. Nobody can afford a new car (and, advances in technology have made cars last for 20 years, so nobody needs a new car). No money, no inflation and eventual long recession.
2
Trump only know bully negotiation. This is why he favors tariffs. But he also doesn't know his own mind and threatens then and then backs off on tariffs throwing business people into chaos.
Looks like the GOP is tanking the economy again. Took 43 6 years to tank the economy and Trump looks to be getting there in 3.
Look folks, GOP policy favors the rich. You can't eat guns or pay your mortgage with guns. And making poor people have children they can't afford is a recipe that only favors for profit prisons. How many times have Democrats pulled the fat out of the economic fire, only to see the GOP wreck it again when we have forgotten the misery of the last downturn.
9
"The global economy is under increasing stress as growth cools..."
...all thanks to the 'Wharton School Dotard' who slept through class and personally manufactured this impending economic crisis because he dreamed "Trade wars are good..."
Thank you stable genius, with the "large brain."
What next?
A national push to revive the long neglected effort at alchemy?
8
Wise leaders generally have wise counselors; and he must be a wise man himself who is capable of distinguishing one.
We have two ears and one tongue so that we would listen more and talk less.
When I look upon seamen, men of science and philosophers, man is the wisest of all beings; when I look upon priests and leaders nothing is as contemptible as man.
The mob is the mother of tyrants.
Of what use is a philosopher who doesn't hurt anybody's feelings?
We know nothing, except the fact of our ignorance.
It is the privilege of the gods to want nothing, and of godlike men to want little.
Dogs and philosophers do the greatest good and get the fewest rewards.
There is only a tiny difference between a wise man and a fool.
In a rich man's house there is no place to spit but his face.
The vine bears three kinds of grapes: the first of pleasure, the second of intoxication, the third of disgust.
The great thieves lead away the little thief.
Modesty is the color of virtue.
No man is hurt but by himself.
Calumny is only the noise of madmen.
Those who have virtue always in their mouths, and neglect it in practice, are like a harp, which emits a sound pleasing to others, while itself is insensible of the music.
He has the most who is most content with the least.
P.S. Nothing has changed. Humanity has failed to learn anything. The aforementioned are Diogenes statements from few millenniums ago.
We should celebrate the recessions. That’s the great news in regard to the global warming.
4
Well so much for retiring this year( silly me thinking I can do that during Trumps fiascos.)
10
It looks like Trump has lost control of this conversation.
8
Leave it to Republicans with their endless one-trick pony of tax cuts for the rich plus the shock of Tariff Man Trump's "bully in the China shop" trade policy to put us back in the economic "ditch" that Barack Obama and Federal Reserve Chair, Ben Bernanke, dug us out of. The only bright spot, if this does push the U.S. into recession, is that it almost guarantees a Democrat will be our next president as it did with the last two Democrats who were victorious.
9
Let's see, Uber lost $6 billion in 2019 thus far, Lyft lost $644.2 million in Q2 2019, and Netflix losing an estimated $192 million a month. I guess actual positive earnings doesn't matter in this economy. Hard to see how ends well when Wall Street continues to believe in fairy tales about how these companies (let's not forget Tesla either) are 'just around the corner from turning a profit'.
4
Trump is always blameless. He blames the Federal Reserve. Not his trade war with China even though he he pushed back his next rounds of sanctions from October 1 to December 15. Farmers have crops they can't sell to China but Trump sees no correlation to the dark economic clouds ahead that have the potential to rain down a heavy recession.
9
Just as we're seeing an "inverted yield curve" in the bond markets, I wonder if we're about to witness an "inverted support swerve" by Trump supporters. Many, if not most, Trump supporters have insisted all along that they've been willing to tolerate his racism because of the good economy. Will we now find that those same supporters are willing to tolerate a cratering economy because of Trump's racism?
17
@WDG
One thing Trump supporters will never tolerate is the false and specious accusation of "racism". They are likely the only rational Americans at this point who understand what racism is and isn't.
1
@AACNY There is a useful distinction between "bigot" and "racist." Anyone, regardless of skin color or creed, can be a bigot who hates others for no particular rational reason. A bigot can simply be avoided. But a racist, by virtue of having political/economic power that derives from being a member of the dominant community, has the ability to act on that bigotry and make life miserable for the hated "other."
So what is your non-specious definition of "racism?"
The tax breaks to the top 1% will prove to be part of the failed economics of the GOP. The money is never directed responsibly. Meanwhile tariffs will tax hard the ret of us - after Christmas will add to the misery of tax time. On the word stage we just set an example to help the calamity spread. Keep the coverage coming. And - see if there are any better directions from others to lead us once again to address what looks like the start of a 2008 and probably worse scenario.
2
The president's incompetence is going to cripple the economy for years to come. I hope voters comes to their senses in 2020.
13
As a layperson in all things regarding the economy, I try to read a variety of sources and experts to learn what I can.
For sure, all bull markets and growing economies come to an end, either in slowed growth or severe recession depending on the "fundamentals" as we are supposed to call them,
I do believe that the psychology and sense of stability in investors is also critical, and we are in a HUUGE unstable period as the WH jumps from one treaty to another, unilaterally pulls out of some, throws tariffs up like they were candy, gives a totally unnecessary tax cut to corporations instead of using that tool as a stimulus when we need it
Now that Germany is heading into recession, the EU and the debacle of BREXIT loom, China gets damaged in the trade war along with us, and that once reliable recession indicator bond indeces inversion, seems we should just fasten our seat belts and get ready for the roller coaster ride,\MN
And of course the big boys and higher rollers were come out fine, while the little shmos with hits to their 401K just before retirement take the brunt of it,
5
I awaken
To the news
Markets are shaken
Windows are rattlin
Black clouds are rollin In
I confess
That the news of a
Global mess
Gives me stress
And the blues
Economic trouble
Should I call
My broker
Sell my stocks
On the double?
Then I see
Day is dawning
Lovely morning
I have hope
Like the sun
Stock markets
Will be rising
1
Trump will find a way to blame Obama.
17
Recession, or worse, usually start under Republican leadership, which I found quite odd in the past. But I now understand that it is their reckless greed and profit taking that precipitates economic downturns.
Now we have those factors plus a imbecile child in the white house and it is inevitable that the economy will collapse. I am moving my retirement savings from mostly stocks to all bonds as soon as possible. I strongly suggest that anyone who is not set up to take advantage economic volatility do the same. I believe that we are in for a very rough ride and it seems that we will never learn.
20
Actually no one can be that surprised with person Trump as president, a guy who went bankrupt so many times. A guy who is a threat to world economy.
Interesting for oeople to check out the US national debt clock.
8
The only good thing is is that the day of reckoning for this presidency might be coming just in time, before the next election. We, Earth people, can hardly wait.
10
Congress: We're done with this! Read the Constitution! Which branch of government controls TARIFFS?
Figure it out and save our country! (Oh, and watch Rachel Maddow!)
9
I don't have the expertise to know whether the Chinese are taking unfair advantage of the U.S. nor whether their early negotiating positions were moving in the right direction for us on trade. But I do think they will have greater stamina in a protracted standoff. Trump will cave in if the markets continue to slide.
8
We have a repeating pattern here: After a decade of Demcratic economic growth, Republicans spend lavishly on defense and redistribute wealth (tax cuts) from the middle class to a small oligarchy of the super-rich, then the economy collapses. Democrats come back into power during the recession, then claw the economy back to health. Repeat. But, in the meantime, the rich get richer and the middle class stays stuck. Who votes for this pattern? Why? Americans are so ignorant. Pay attention to the pattern!
401
No worries because I doubt we will see another R president for many years after 2020.
6
@Joe
The Democrats keep letting the Republicans do this to them without ever pointing out the pattern.
Why would Obama say, "this is my economy" a few months into his term, when we were still at the bottom of a record downturn? The Republicans immediately used that to blame the Great Recession on him!
Democrats need to go on TV and explain in detail why the Republicans are bad and why they are no better.
Promising to compromise with bad policy does not win elections. Saying that you can't do anything without the Senate makes you should like losers. Explain what you would do with 60 Senate seats, so you can win those seats!.
21
@Joe
About half of the American people are too busy screaming “lock her up” or “send them back” to even notice Trump and his allies have their hands in their pockets. They are being fed a steady diet of lies at Fox News and from talking heads on a media controlled by the rich recipients of the republican power structure. It also carves out their heroes and villains for them. In the meantime, the American education structure is being downsized to keep the public barefoot an pregnant, as the saying goes, and the money-lending institutions have found another lucrative way to separate people from their money through student loans. This is a formula for ignorance.
42
I turn 70 in December and still working. I’m ok with a low market value until then because my RMD will be lower meaning less taxes and a deflated market to reinvest money I don’t yet want or need.
And I’m also willing to put up with a limping market if it pushes Trump out, and he backs off the tariffs. But he’s so willfully ignorant that it may not register.
9
At least Trump is consistent. 6 bankruptcies. Now he's bankrupting the entire nation. What else did you expect?
19
New York City real estate baron heir Siberian President Donald Trump's "trade war" is malignly meant as a distraction from whatever Trump Organization profitable advantage arising from his occupation of the White House that Trump is hiding from the American people in his income tax returns and business accounting records.
By failing to declare, disclose and divest his assets into a blind trust you can't tell where Trump Mar-a-Lago ends and Trump White House begins.
Wikileaks please disclose this to the American people. China? Iran? North Korea? Russia?
10
When the Dow falls to 20,000 for more than a day let me know.
3
Trump will bully the Fed to get reelected. But do any of these other players have any interest in Trump getting re-elected? Germany? China? Remember, despite what Trump says, the economy did do better under Obama. Not great, but better. And he didn't go around bad mouthing every other place or hurting their economies. If you think the Chinese want to play ball with a guy who would stab them in the back while shaking hands with them, think again. Americans, when they think about the recipient of any Trump policies, need to ask themselves "If I was in their shoes, what would I do?". When confronted with the bully on the playground, how eager would they be to help the jerk who stole their lunch money and knocked them down to the pavement in the process. Many like having a bully on their side, thinking " Now I will get what I 'deserve'". But they need to remember, the first thing that comes to mind for anyone subjected to Trump is to get him back for the way he has treated them. Even if they pay a price to do so. And if you don't see that he had it coming, you are very naive in how the world works.
4
As we see, Trump has chosen the Federal Reserve to blame for the worldwide economic woes. Trump desperately needs another major stimulous from the Fed to attempt to temporarily lift the economy, and get him reelected before the economy collapses.
Of course, if this takeover is successful it will only deepen the subsequent recession, and weaken one of the few bulworks of our country, and our economy. If Trump can fire the Fed Chairman, he will ultimately weaken the world's investor's faith in the U.S. dollar, perhaps for generations.
There are other courses of economic stimulous available to the President, that would be helpful to the U.S. economy. Most involve backing down from his tarriff wars, and building unity among our allies and trading partners. These are unlikely avenues for Trump. The one obvious approach would be to join with Democrats and pass an infrastructure stimulous plan as soon as possible. Our country is so divided, I wonder whether any mutual action for the greater good is possibile today.
3
"Trade wars are easy to win". D. Trump. Meanwhile the casualties are piling up.
6
Ironically I am not too concerned about our economy next year. Trump is riding on a decent economy and if it tanks a bit because of his tariffs, he will not be re-elected, which will be better for the US in the long run. Back to normalcy.
6
The global billionaires, especially Trump, feel themselves above mere countries, most of which have a lower net wealth than one of them. For them, all borders are open, and the point of money is to amass as much as possible so that you can say you have the most
They don't care if tree entire world economy falls apart, because it just means they can buy assets cheaply, making themselves richer.
For those so obsessed with money that they collect it a billion at a time, it is not about the absolute wealth of the human race, but the relative wealth of them versus others.
If an alcoholic is hurting themselves and others by drinking themselves to oblivion, you try to limit their alcohol consumption. Billionaires are hurting themselves and others by systematically manipulating markets and governments to make themselves richer. It literally kills people by the millions across the world.
The money and powerr mad used to be royalty, with the most ruthless ending up king. We had an age of revolution to stop that, and the USA created the inheritance tax so that we would no longer have aristocracy.
But the Right was loyal to the King and still wants a king, and Trump aims to be their king .
They cheer while he calls for violence against citizens without due process like a king, claims he can take away people's citizenship like a king, calls for personal loyalty from public servants like a king, says that citizens should "sit in attention" with "fervor" as if he are king...
9
Such wisdom coming from a Democrat.
Trump is making the smart play in getting tough on trade with China. Trump blaming is simply a favorite pastime of the emotional lowbrow. The biggest threat to the US economy is the debt bubble.
1
@DecliningSociety I'm one of the "emotional lowbrows" who blames Trump for the crashing stock market because of his trade war, you know, the one that all economists say is not the way to deal with China?
Trump still thinks China is paying the tariffs, not Americans who purchase Chinese products, and he's the one who signed off on a budget that increased our debt bubble.
17
...the debt bubble...which is also worsening under Trump. But I’m just an emotional lowbrow, so what do I know?
4
I've worked hard for 50 years, lived frugally and saved for my retirement so I wouldn't be a burden on society.
Yesterday, I lost $5,000 from my retirement account because of the stock market tank.
Is Congress going to let Trump bankrupt all of us?
13
The stock market goes up and down and has always done so. If you don’t want to reap the rewards just put your 401(k) under your mattress and let it lie there. The only problem is that you will eventually regret that decision.
5
What kind of investor are you? You can gain five thousand and then lose five thousand any day of the week. If you don’t like the risk, put it under the mattress.
1
@Confused My retirement funds go directly from my employer into my retirement account. I have no control over that. I didn't see "put your percentage of monthly retirement under your mattress."
Not all of us have control over whether we put it under a mattress or not.
5
Shake rattle and roll
Shake rattle and roll
Market's in trouble
Sure can take a toll
Shake roll and rattle
Shake roll and rattle
Fear of a recession
We have got to battle
Roll rattle and shake
Roll rattle and shake
I don't know how much
More that I could take
3
Mission accomplished!
Trump is going to undo Obama's legacy.
And in the process he will assure himself a spot as one of the worst presidents in history.
23
I'm guessing that President Bonespur's crack team of "economists" is working feverishly day and night trying to figure out how to place the blame for this mess at the door of President Obama. I have no doubt they'll succeed since it seems that everyone is good at at least one thing, and obviously it is not economics.
13
@jim allen
They are blaming it on the Fed.
@Carl Lee
Yes, blaming it o the FED which just did his bidding by lowering rates - - and contributing to the inversion.
1
In the case of Germany there are also important domestic economic problems. Their main industries have seen a devastating series of catastrophes with Bayer losing over a third of its value or more following its acquisition of Monsanto and waves of lawsuits, Volkswagen and Daimler holed under the waterline by DieselGate, and Deutsche Bank facing all sorts of issues. We’re used to seeing Germany as an economic God but for multiple years they have been in serious trouble.
6
@Alina Starkov Excellent information. It does seem that there are a variety of factors slowing several nations growth now, but that combined they will have the ultimate effect of a recession.
2
@Alina Starkov So they are being held back by the usual pitfalls of capitalism- a bad management decision (Bayer buying Monsanto) and ethical problems (VW, Daimler and Deutsche Bank)
Bad management decisions happen, but the ethical ones could have been avoided. Making a product and selling it for more than it cost you and satisfying a bunch of investors isn't very easy. It is a lot easier to take shortcuts
2
Commenters seeming to blame this entirely on Trump are missing the point. Yes, voters are likely to blame the party in power when the economy goes south, but this expansion was bound to grind to a halt eventually, and probably soon. Periodic recessions are built into the structure of the national and global economy. Let’s also not fall into the economist’s trap of assuming people and governments will behave rationally; political instability is a natural consequence of wealth inequality. Bad trade policies, irresponsible fiscal policies - these things are not external factors affecting the economy. The very factors driving economic growth, drive apart society, fueling inequality, and in doing so undermine the foundation for the growth in itself. That’s not a flaw, it’s a feature. That’s capitalism.
8
@Jerome S.
Boom and bust are features of a poorly regulated capitalism. Slow and steady growth, where gains and declines are more modest and evenly distributed over time is possible and desirable...for those mature enough to manage the economy properly.
6
@Jerome S.
Boom and bust are features of a poorly regulated capitalism. Slow and steady growth, where gains and declines are more modest and evenly distributed over time is possible and desirable...for those mature enough to manage the economy properly.
1
@Jerome S.
The point, Jerome is that TRUMP caused this situation. Nothing you post will change that.
6
The real question is, how many times can Trump bully the Federal Reserve into adjusting rates?
7
@Mark until the fed rate goes into negative territory. And who knows, soon banks will join the party. Just think banks have been making billions of profits, and soon customers will pay them to park their deposits. Love it.
3
The first time I hear a politician say, "The economic fundamentals are sound," in defense of the Trump economy will be the day I stop all unnecessary spending, because the recession will have begun and it will be an especially bad one.
11
@Stephen Beard Just like a "vote of confidence" from a team owner to a coach
I might receive negative feedback from this, but here it goes: I worry about my economy, not anyone else's. I have a steady job, not too much debt, military retirement check monthly. Didn't happen overnight and it took a lot of hard work to get here. I do however love seeing Wall Street executives sweating. Their weekend in the Hamptons might be cancelled.
You get who you elect.
18
@Scott Franklin
Wall Street executives aren't sweating. To a large extent they make their money from arbitrage and hedging so it doesn't matter whether stocks or bonds go up or down. Think of them like bookies laying off bets and then you will get the idea. Unfortunately your neighbors who may not have your gold plated defined benefit pension which they are helping to pay for are not going to be so lucky because of the interdependence of the whole economic construct. No man is an island etc.
16
@Scott Franklin
One of the points of this article is that our economy doesn't exist in isolation. More than any time in history, it's intimately linked to economies like China's and Germany's and their failing fortunes will eventually affect our own.
Trump wants to believe that we can return the global economy to a pre-WW II time when production chains and consumerism were largely contained within national boundaries, and you could legitimately talk about "American" corporations. That's unrealistic. Most corporations headquartered in the U.S. rely on overseas factories and consumers. And they feel no particular allegiance to the U.S. If the trade war persists, corporate capital will do what it needs to sustain profits, regardless of the consequences for the "American economy."
11
I live in Australia. The lack of understanding of economics and World trade on the part of the President of the USA just cost me over $30,000 from my retirement savings in one day.
Many others in many other countries have suffered similar losses, and anticipate worse to come.
The strong likelihood that Presidents Trump's supporters will also suffer from his ill considered policies gives no comfort or satisfaction.
38
@Steve, Australia's largest exports are iron, coal, gold and natural gas and one-third of all your exports go to China. "He who rides the tiger should not dismount or he will get eaten." Before you blame Mr. Trump, consider your country's priorities and trading partners.
5
@Steve Bright The issue is not Trump himself, but that a sizeable portion of Americans don't have an understanding of economics- and that leads us to electing him.
3
@Mark Exporting to China is "Riding the Tiger"? What bizarre propaganda
President Trump was reported to be considering putting tariffs on Australian goods, believing (incorrectly) the US had a trade deficit with Australia. These problems were caused when President Trump decided trade wars were simple and easy to win.
Maybe having someone so poorly informed and impulsive as President of the USA is riding the tiger.
Front end (sales price) margins on cars have evaporated during the last year. Back end margins (warranties, financing, etc.) have been cut in half. The markets have not just slowed recently due to tariffs. Just like the government, people are becoming overwhelmed with debt because they SPEND TOO MUCH. Before we point our finger at somebody else, we should notice the three fingers pointing right back at ourselves.
5
The great concern I share with many other readers is that there is no safety nets left standing to stop a quick descent into a global Depression. Pass Recession...go directly to Depression.
16
The Dubya "great recession" was technically a depression.
6
When we have a White House occupant who is meddlesome, reckless, erratic and subject to the blandishments of a few outside the mainstream thinkers like Navarro, Ross, and Miller, we are bound to see the results in the form of severe turbulence in domestic and international issues.
42
It appears this is what the Tax Reform bill has done for the Country.
The wealthy and the wealthy Corporations only invested in themselves. Corporations spent their tax savings on buying back stock not investing in R&D or training employees or giving raises, or expanding their businesses thereby creating new job opportunities, as was the supposed excuse for the Tax Reform bill in the first place. As for the wealthy, a new yacht anyone?
You can not build a healthy economy unless all citizens are included. It is short-sighted. And the resultant penalty is recession or in the case lately a Great Recession, aka, a Depression.
You do not need to be an economist, a Fed Chair or a President to know this.
85
Italy, which has horrible public debt, but is also the second largest manufacturing country in the EU with good surplus in world export, suffered terribly because the German recipe, of limiting Govt spending in infrastructures. Germany, after summoning Italian economy for years, it's now poisoned by its own medicine, no public spending and a flat internal demand.
After mocking Italian banks(including big ones such as Unicredit and Intesa which are in relatively good shape now) while protecting its Sparkasse (local banks) from the Basilea 3 stress test because they are full of debts, Germany had to admit that even Deutsche bank is in big trouble. Also for years the Minister of Finance and other German experts criticized Mario Draghi,head of the European Central Bank, for his aggressive Quantitative Easing policy, despite the fact that Germany was the first one to benefit from it.
All that said Italy, as well other big countries in Europe, should not be happy about the situation in Germany, because the country is vital to the EU economy. In certain models German automotive industry uses up to 35% of high end components designed and made in Italy. Italy and Germany are strong trade partners. Italy in 2018 exported to Germany for about 58 Billions Euros, Germany to Italy for about 70. These numbers, along with all the others, tell you why MrTrump would do anything to trip the EU economy, which unlike the US is still very strong in manufacturing. Europeans please stand united.
10
The US does not live on an economic island isolated from the rest of the world. We are connected to all other economies. It might take more time for bad times to come here-but they eventually will. Trump does not understand the ramifications of his trade policy as it effects the rest of the world and how it will eventually effect us here in the US. We have passed the tipping point and be prepared for a good 2 years of bad news.
210
@Den
Trump does not care about the ramifications of the economy. He wins no matter what, as he eats at the public troth.
5
He understands but his agenda is different from ours.
5
@Den
One thing Trump does understand is how China operates. It is not our "friend". We may all be interconnected but to ignore China's acting in its self-interests is foolish.
Previous US presidents have been complacent, disinterested, etc., resulting in a policy that allows China free reign over the US markets and intellectual property. Trump is the first to sep up to the plate and address it. We should applaud him, not throw rocks.
1
Pull the plug on the market and it's "show over folks". For its long term health, a market implosion might be the urgent cleanse our democracy urgently craves.
10
Not a lot of Americans who went through the Great Depression and FDR's stewardship through the run up to WWII are still alive. It's not ancient history. We're in a run up to World War III in 2019.
In 1929, men were throwing themselves out of tall buildings on Wall Street in New York. The market went down 800 pts yesterday, scaring all the generations still alive after WWII. Economic and financial jitters are ringing global alarm bells.
The PRC and Hong Kong are at swordpoints. One country, two systems. Trump and his base are at swordpoints with Democrats and "fake news". Climate-change is affecting all our lives on earth. The Markets are shaking in their boots. Stay tuned for more on Trump's trade war with President for Life Xi Jingping. And Trump's other wars.
15
A recession will certainly hurt Trump's reelection chances, but not if Democrats come across as just as (or more) economically illiterate. Eliminating private insurance entirely in favor of Medicare for all would be have disastrous consequences not just for that industry, but for the medical profession and for hospitals. The host of giveaways Democratic candidates have promised exhibit a lack of serious thinking. Anyone who wants to beat Trump in the polls needs to win over independents as well as markets, and that requires sober centrism.
20
@Julie read the papers. Not all Dems are in favor of no insurance, most support a public + private option. If you are not in favor of a public only option, vote for the guy who is in favor of both. It’s pretty simple, do the research and vote for the guy/gal who has the policies you support. If you support Trump, fine but don’t claim that all Dems are in favor of giveaways or lack serious thinking. There are many who have been in office a long time, know how to get things done and most certainly would not send us down the destructive path we are on.
23
@ND
I would vote for a bag of rocks before I voted for Trump. My concern is that the Democrats will nominate someone too far to the left to win independents. Biden's age is a concern. Warren is, I think, good, but too far left on health care. The person who can win independents will have a plan for how to get to universal health care without blowing up the system.
5
Medicare is not a giveaway. People pay into it. The government manages the funds. As to who benefits it is the patient, which I think matters. If we spend the same lower percentage of GDP on medical care as the civilized countries we’d use those extra multi billions of those dollars previously wasted on the medical industrial complex on education and infrastructure.
To spend one dollar out of 5 on medical care is insane as millions remain uninsured and medical bills a major cause of bankruptcy.
The medical industrial complex has been bilking the public for years.
Wake up people!!
10
Tariffs instead of engagement with allies and trading partners to correct inequities in markets. Tax cuts without significant reform. Tossing prior agreements and relationships to the wind in favor of the unknown chaotic models of trade.
Who knew that economic and defense policy could be so complicated? Trump, his talk show host advisors, and outlier "subject matter" experts? This clearly has not been demonstrated, and whatever deepening market chaos that comes, was predicted.
28
@Leithauser we had 40 years of engagement with China, nothing, they kept right on eating our lunch. Hillary lost because people did not want more of the same ole. China does what's good for China, Trump has switched the dynamic after 40 years, the results are coming in - what's good for China has changed.
1
If the inverted yield curve - which just happened - is a certain harbinger of recession, then let us hope the recession happens in time to doom Trump's re-election chances. Also, the only criteria by which this GOP Senate would ever convict him were he impeached would be a tanked economy. Maybe.
75
@Rethinking
It's not an 100% certain sign of recession, but one of its main indicators.
An inverted yield curve indicates capitalists are now preferring to lose money slowly but at a lower degree than investing (either in the financial market itself or the real economy).
1
Senate GOP brains have been permanently altered and are totally controlled by Trump.
2
President "Bobby": Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?
Chance: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
President "Bobby": In the garden.
Chance: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.
President "Bobby": Spring and summer.
Chance: Yes.
President "Bobby": Then fall and winter.
Chance: Yes.
Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy.
Chance: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!
Benjamin Rand: Hmm!
Chance: Hmm!
President "Bobby": Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I've heard in a very, very long time. … I admire your good, solid sense. That's precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill.
16
@Wenga
One of Peter Sellers' best performances. Thank you for reminding me of it.
3
No Republican administration in my lifetime has ever failed to crash the economy. I'm pretty old too.
252
@Cheryl I've noticed that also. It recently took W almost 8 years, but Trump is a superstar at crashing financial situations and can do it in 3 or 4 years.
77
@brooklyn
And the subsequent Democratic President has to fix it and they get the blame for the pain.
18
Why consumer confidence looks good: cheap credit, 0% interest for 2 years on credit cards, $27 a month minimum payment on $10,000 balance/14.99% after that. This and the tax cut adding trillions to the Country's debt. Individuals and the Country are on a debt fueled spending spree. We've seen this movie before. Only this time, with interest rates already near bottom, there is no slack to pull us out. SAD!
48
@06Gladiator
More like 25% after that+ even for people with good credit scores. Only the wealthy, who can pay off debt without interest can win the credit card game.
2
@06Gladiator
And Trump the self-styled King of Debt is in the process of running the country like his failed businesses—right into bankruptcy with no investor willing to toss us a life preserver and no self help tool. With relaxed regulations, a neutered CFPB and the Fed bullied into dropping interest rates further—the perfect storm. Trump better pray he has the chance to change his mind about a second term or gets beaten because the Four Horseman are on the way.
1
Goodness me!!
For the life of me I do not know what all the fuss is about!! Don't people know that we all now live in a globalized, deregulated, privatized, neo-liberal world economic paradise, where the free-market forces self-regulate to correct any imperfections that may arise? I mean, you only need to read the likes of gurus Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand to be convinced of that.
This new fancy, fan-dangled economic system has delivered us all into an economic Utopia (especially those hard-working corporate executives who take home millions every year at the expense of their employees and customers).
I am sure that the 'economic stabilizers that all the post-Keynesian economic textbooks talk about will operate as expected and keep us out of any trouble. After all, neo-liberalism has created a recession-proof economy. Hasn't it?
17
Stabilizers have a chance to work if the people in charge actually understand economic principles, pay attention to facts and cooperate with allies, instead of antagonizing them with beggar-thy-neighbor policies at every turn.
26
@S.C.Surely you are not suggesting that there is a flaw in the neo-liberal economic ideology?
This is the mind of a stable genius upsetting the business world and bringing the global economy to ruin.
Trump was never a good business man, politician or diplomat but he knows how to lie with the best of them.
The country should do the same as him and hire as many lawyers as needed, to sue him into oblivion.
76
A slow down seems inevitable, what is troubling is that few tools remain to contain the recession. There has already been a tax cut, that could end up contributing to a recession and interest rates are slipping lower already. Predicting a recession is best done looking into the rear mirror, and what I see are tariffs, a top heavy stock market, and wild gyrations in that market. And ten years of growth, along with weakening steps taken in the economic and personal safety nets protecting the country. When will the recession hit, it"s already here.
18
There are so many "moving parts" to the myriad of problems/emergencies Trump has created that it is virtually impossible to get a "read" on economic issues from hour to hour. But it should be kept in mind that as far back as the mid-1990s even Alan Greenspan thought there was an economic "conundrum" with regard to the US treasury bond market. The "conundrum" was that our bond market became a "safe" haven for the world's excess capital anytime there was a world-wide catastrophe or panic that resulted in the sale of equities. This pattern has held true to this day despite seemingly great economic conditions.
We are in uncharted territory. The Fed raise interest rates at the slowest pace in modern times from Dec. 2015 to Dec. 2018. But those rates were still historically low despite a 10-year economic expansion. Wall St. had a huge Dec. 2018 selloff prompting Powell to "raise the white flag" with regard to further rate hikes. But the 10-yr treasury had already begun a huge rally, the interest rate dropping precipitously from 3.27% in Nov. to 1.60% as of today. There are still trillions in QE money created by the Fed, most of which never circulated in the economy as the funds were used to buy investment banks toxic debt from 2008.
Trump's tariffs and the literal hour to hour uncertainty has driven the world to the brink of disaster as the foundation of our economy is based on the easiest of money in modern times with extreme debt. Where do we go from here....??
10
Tariff Trump has been manipulating the markets for his own gain. The White House has made him a wealthy man, finally.
64
Every cloud has a Silver-lining, economic recession means a slowdown in the growth of carbon and other pollutants since people will be tightening their belts Greta should be happy and the environmentalists.
8
@Darren
Greta, and any living entity that breathes. That leaves tramp out. BTW, Greta is absolutely beautiful and brilliant.
1
Trump gives the appearance of a man lacking any strategic perspective; someone who reacts without any overarching plan. He moves from one decision to the next without any conception of how the parts relate to the whole, hoping against hope that somehow this disjointed activity will coalesce to bring about a desirable outcome. His approach seems more akin to alchemy than understanding of economic theory or practice. I hope I am wrong and there is some pattern underlying his decisions, the outlines of which are too subtle for my eyes to detect. There is a lot riding on his success.
24
Although we've seen how world markets tremble and shake at the slightest provocations, this latest sea-saw; ( reportedly down several hours ago- stabilized now...) bears witness of the power of words and actions.
Donald J. Trump has gotten what he has -apparently always imagined; The World in the palms of his tiny hands: "I speak and the world trembles." Unfortunately, what he speaks and does, is not for good. It's just because he can.
Perhaps the global economy will grow a spine and call his bluff. Americans will suffer but...tyrants- even our own must be held at bay.
53
Herr Trump's economic policies, like those used in his failed businesses, make a typical "flash in the pan" at the onset in order to bolster his ego and awe his devotees, but then fail in the long term. Except in this case, instead of a few investors and workers, it will affect millions of Americans and drag the rest of the world with it.
136
The holiday season will be an utter disaster. Vacations will be much closer to home in 2020. We are not hearing of the "new" decade and it's 2020 ! You'll need to liquidate as soon as possible and invest into proven upside commodities to hedge against all your declining worth. Say "no" to the ever increasing spending of your dependents and cease trying to keep up with the Jones. Status expenditures will cease. Luxury will be the fact that you are eating well and look awesome plus have no debt and own land.
28
Maybe Trump's base doesn't yet realize that he is clueless regarding economics, but it's clear that the world is not oblivious. One begins to understand how Trump failed in the casino business, when other owners have the world by the tail. Maybe history will label Trump's tariffs as "the big Con".
167
@batpa, his base doesn't care. They are only choosing to hear what directly appeals to them; that is not the same as what directly affects them. That penny has yet to drop. It will happen and they will look to blame everyone but their leader.
6
When the yield curve inverts - investors will pay less for short-term paper (resulting in higher yields) and more for long-term (with lower yields).
They know that a big capital letter "R" that has been floating around out in the ozone is getting ready to make a landing - a hard landing called recession. Short-term looks so bad, that money gravitates toward the safer long-term future even though you have to pay more for it.
Senor Flim-Flam can bumble, he can stumble - with his dog-and-pony economic show - but now it looks like his act is about to crumble...
107
When it seems that half the world has negative interest rates on 10 year bonds, and they are going even more negative, you feel like you should cash in everything you have and put the money under the mattress.
I am looking forward to buying a car with a six year car loan, where they pay me interest on the unamortized balance.
20
Trump should be proud of himself. As for the rest of us, if you’re not paying off your debt ASAP and ditching discretionary spending, you’ve not been listening.
40
@Monterey Seaotter What do you mean, "proud of himself." He is largely the cause of the latest economic (worldwide as we are not alone in what we do to the economy) downturn. He has crashed our government bonds. And he blames the FED, it is him not the FED.
73
@Monterey Seaotter
My Mom - a Fox disinfo devotee- last week told me, "Fine, the Chinese will just have to sell their soybeans to someone else." You appear not to understand that Trump cut taxes (adding debt but not value), added tariffs (raising prices but not adding jobs or growth). Trump is following his life pattern of borrowing excessively during a period of growth, inability to add value, then going broke.
23
@JHM Is Monterey being sarcastic, maybe? Urging people to financial care seems to suggest it.
1