The recession in Germany is only to a small extent caused by US Tariffs. We (Germany) brought most of it on ourselves by bad political and business decisions and recently by talking a lot about change but not setting a course. No one wants to invest if they don't know where they're going. E.g. I'm sure the economy could handle and even thrive with carbon taxes, but if you don't know if and how they will be implemented you probably want to wait until you know before making a big investment in new technology. Additionally, our infrastructure is falling apart and, as correctly stated in the article, the government is more committed to budget surpluses than investing in infrastructure and education.
1
China could simply raise wages so the Chinese workers have more money to buy China made goods. They can pay for it by calling in the debt the US owes them and the US can get the money out of Trumps bank account.
2
Trump mistakenly things that he has the upper hand in the trade war. The Chinese people almost universally resent the treatment they have received from Western nations in the last two hundred years. If they feel China is being targeted by Trump, their nationalist feelings will be asset for Xi. Xi will most certainly be able to outlast Trump in this fight.
2
I have to ask. Having had 2 jobs shipped to China and been forced too train my own H1B replacement at a third. I should cry for China or Global trade WHY??
Global Trade for all the pious protestations by economists and so many posters hasn't benefited a big chunk of us. And for all the protestations of the winners it isn't going too. So I and other people who have been shafted by"Globalization" could care less if China gets hit hard by a trade war. China benefited at my expense and I DO NOT feel the slightest bit of sympathy for them. Why should I???
And to head off all the proclamations he must a pro Trump if he doesn't like how Global trade is. I didn't vote for him. I voted 3rd party. But I got news for you You don't have to be pro Trump to utterly hate and despise China & Globalization! If China's entire economy went down the White Porcelain Fixture in the bathroom, I might throw a party though. I care about as much for China or the Global Economy have cared about me. I am not a beneficiary of this "Global Economy" the Economists boast about and like so many others I never will be. So don't expect me or so many others to care if China or Germany is having a bad quarter. Globalization, Global Trade benefits relatively few. Don't expect the rest of the rest of us whose wages, benefits & future have gone down the porcelain in the name of "Globalization" to care! We don't!!!
87
@Stephan The benefit of the global economy is that it has created opportunities for literally billions of people, both in an outside the US. Absent that, growth in developed countries will stagnate, underdeveloped countries will remain poor. Without the global economy, the lack of growth would mean higher unemployment rates in the US as companies are forced to cut costs to generate shareholder return which is not available through increased revenues. The unfortunate, but natural consequence is that workers are forced to improve their skills to remain relevant. Your particular case aside, the current low unemployment rate in the US and growth and strength of the US economy is largely due to global trade.
56
@Stephan
Global trade has been going on way before America even existed. The truth is American manufacturing has never been able to compete on the world stage. It was only after a world war where the rest of the world lacked any capacity to create goods that US did well. You might not care but we're all connected whether you like it or not. An effect in markets aboard will effect us. China is a major buyer of soy. There can be no growth without globalization.
45
@Michael
"Opportunity" doesn't pay anyone's bills or improve their economic wellbeing.
As income inequality indices show us, global trade as benefited a tiny minority of people at the expense of everyone else.
This has nothing to do with the failure of people to "improve" skills. As economic stats have shown us, worker productivity has skyrocketed and wages have stagnated, in defiance to free market economics. Marginal Cost = Marginal Product, that's how it's supposed to go in the free market remember?
What productivity increases has the executive/managerial class achieved to merit their sky high salaries? In what way is a manager more productive now than 40 years ago, in comparison to his workers - whom we regularly trash for lagging in productivity and not upgrading their skills?
What "developed" countries advanced from being developed countries since global trade really emerged during the 80s and 90s?
What advanced in China, assuming you can even believe their nationals statistics? The overwhelming majority of wealthy Chinese are still CCP oligarchs, as they were before. It's not the emerging "middle class" who are sending their kids abroad to study.
27
For @Stephan: I agree that globalization has it virtues, but the economist pundits have greatly over exaggerate it. As I think of you, 3 jobs to China?, I say to myself the bottom line is an individual is nothing more than a swallow of meat to a dog. June one more guy used by the plutocracy in the White House for his financial gain.
1
@Stephan, you seem not to realize that the United States dose not exist on another planet. Last I check my global maps it looked like America is on planet earth. A history lesson: it was American capital with the acquaintances of the our government that exported millions of jobs to China helping to developed It’s economy in the 1980’s and on. Neither America’s capitalist class nor the the political parties had the intelligence nor the foresight to see what the results can be. So, don’t blame China for wanting development. You ought to blame America’s capitalists and their political servants for their greed, and incompetence. What happens in the rest of world will inevitably effect the US. Intelligent and prudent economic policies coming from government, the capital class and labor might easy global ill effects in the future. But I know that’s a pipe dream. Only pain can teach lessons.
7
Probably need to start hearing the bona fides of Dem presidential candidates as to how they would dig us out of a recession, including propping up housing prices (restoring the mortgage interest deduction) that will have peaked for all time in 2019. Democrat administrations create wealth and Republicans do profit-taking and train wrecking. With every stroke of the Obscenity's pen we are less prepared for a recession, from deregulating financial institutions to strong arming the Fed and interest rates.
5
Instead of the "oath of office" (which clearly didn't mean a darned thing to Trump), maybe the Hippocratic Oath that includes the words "First do no harm," should be the new things presidents must swear to. Trump has trumped Hoover in his isolationism, tariffs, and racist policies. Donald, Fred would be proud that his son had put their fatherland on the path to ruin.
103
@Max And Max
Just remember, Fred Trump was born in the U.S. (Queens in NYC). Trumpie lied yet again when he claimed to be the son of an immigrant. His grandfather came from Germany and changed the name from Drumpf to Trump.
1
The one last remaining selling point for Trump that you hear from many of his supporters is that well, the economy is strong. This is something often used to excuse overlooking his racist rants, his inciting racist violence, his power grabs, his low-brow Tweeting displaying that he's less intelligent than and not as literate as most fifth graders, and all the rest.
Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying that it's a good thing that it seems like a long-overdue recession is coming, but since it was pretty much the one remaining selling point that Donald Trump had, it would go a long way toward removing the one remaining excuse for anyone voting for him next year.
The truth is that presidents have very little to do with exactly when and why recessions happen. Sure, Trump's disastrous trade wars based on his imbecilic understanding of how trade works could contribute to a recession, but if a recession happens it will be for many reasons, usually just part of the economic cycle where things contract and regroup. Trump also had nothing to do with the current recent economic growth, which started long before he took office.
But since most people don't understand any of that, a recession will doom his chances of reelection.
426
@Jeo
But the trouble is that Trump supporters will absolutely refuse to blame him or hold him accountable for a recession. He'll blame it on China and they'll listen and obey or they'll blame it on someone else or some other thing. Even a recession will not change the minds of these intractable types.
144
@DJ
That doesn't matter. If a recession comes enough of the rest the rest will, rightly or wrongly, blame him and he'll lose.
And I can that wouldn't bother me near as much as the recession would.
28
@Jeo
I wish I believed this to be true. However, I think his followers SAY they like the "strong economy" when what they mean is they like his racism.
I honestly don't think Trump supporters care one little bit if he causes a depression as long as he sticks it to "the libs" and minorities. Allowing the oil and gas companies to do whatever they want with the environment is just icing on the cake.
130
Tariff Man appears to have done Putin's work destroying the west politically, socially and now economically.
505
@L'historien Europe has done that to themselves
2
@L'historien
Since when is China part of the west?
4
@L'historien I believe his actions hurting the US economy will force a corrective action at the ballot box next November.
15
Maybe Germany is learning too late that large money transfers from uncontrollable immigration are draining her coffers and sapping her domestic economy as well.
In just the last two years hundreds of billions of dollars of remittances to third world countries have jumped 7 per cent from the USA alone. Property prices are rising in Mexico, Philippines, and the Middle East as more money flows abroad.
When you add the drain on our social security of retiring immigrants who may return to their homelands to reside you have a messy situation.
3
@Charlie, Remittances from the US to other countries probably keeps more poor people from moving to the US then any US government program could.
Would you rather that the families of the people working here to send money home just came here instead?
The reality is that a large percentage of illegal workers in the US would rather be at home working, but there is no work at home.
Many Mexican farm workers who came to the US to work the fields in the 60s, 70s and 80s returned home, after every harvest, to their families. When the US made movement across the US/Mexican border much harder, many just stayed here and sent for their families.
4
@Charlie
Immigration has zero to do with the recession in Germany.
3
The tariff man with the oversized brain who gifted the plutocracy with a massive tax break and insulted practically everyone of our allies possesses a perverse economic ideology based on threat and bankruptcy. Not hard to presage where this is going.... that flapping sound you hear is currency flying to places where cash is parked.
87
The world reels as an ignorant 3rd-rate TV has-been throws the global trade balances askew.
You can't make up this kind of tragedy.
454
@Plennie Wingo,
Actually, read the novels of the late Phillip K. Dick. He made up stuff this crazy on a regular basis. I loved reading about it. Living it is something else, however.
21
@Plennie Wingo There is no balance in global trade, that's the point.
The world economic system developed after WWII was unsustainable, What's more many countries like China and Germany were cheating on it. Trump recognized how badly broken it was and to his credit is trying to set it right.
14
@Amy
The world economic system that existed before WWII was also unsustainable which, to a large extent, is what led up to WWII.
9
15% corporate tax cuts ( without any repatriation of even one U.S. digital- or Pharma- giant’s Irish or Luxemburg HQ so far), elimination of estate tax even for estates worth $50 million, tax codes that allow real estate speculators to write off bad investments without paying a dime in taxes for perpetuity and a global recession caused by recklessly idiotic tariff-policy without any logic or strategy, supported by an ignorant segment of the constituency who pretend to support him because they “feel” so much more positive about the economy under Trump than under Obama ... great recipe for a total disaster that will leave government funds entirely depleted and the most vulnerable in the crosshairs of Trump and his henchmen - the Mulvaneys, Mnuchins, Rosses, et al - so they can direct racist Trump sheep against a new scapegoat to distract from the real reasons of the next economic shipwreck, this one brought to you by ”Maga” as opposed to banks lying about mortgages.... great improvement from 2009! :)
2
If it takes a recession to flush the Republicans from office I am willing to absorb the pain. Resist. Consume only if necessary and wait for the Democrats to come back and clean up the mess.
2
Trump lied to Americans again. I am the best job creator ever. Well his failed tariffs are destroying the world economy and he and the GOP are living it up . Weekly trips to Florida at 3million a trip. I am tired of him and the waist. At least President Obama stayed at Camp David lots of weekends to save us money. The amount it is costing for those weekly trips needs to come out for public to see so we can decide if we can afford four more years of this Republican greed.
Ahh, now we can clearly see Trumps business acumen at work with the willful destruction of the US and worlds economy. The last economic upheaval under Bush almost cost us our house, now the Republicans are again hacking away at the economic underpinning or our economy again. You simply cannot create tax cuts for the wealthy and expect everything to be sexy. How much is our debt under Trump? How many times did Trump declare bankruptcy? Is there anyone in his government that can correct anything? Are you joking? The total lack of leadership coming out of this administration is appalling. The ship of state is veering towards a waterfall and Captain Trump is too busy tweeting to notice.
2
Trump is an addicted gambler at heart, but as we can see a willfully ignorant gambler, who bluffs his way through daily life without a clue about what he is doing or even going to do next.
All we needed to do was to look at his track record when he declared his intention to run for president: a string of bad bankruptcies, bad judgement, bad marriages, bad behavior, and bad ethics before he even was elected to be President by the antiquated Electoral College.
Trump seeks no solid information and expert advice, never anticipates the consequences of his actions (which are generally hurtful and harmful). Many a preschooler is more mature and has better moral judgment than the 73-year-old Mr. Trump. Worse, Trump cares only about himself, and is a flaming, egotistical narcissist with multiple personality disorders.
What could possibly go wrong?
As Bob Dylan sang: "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing."
Actually, the Republican Party and its big donors desperately need a weatherman, because they are perfectly willing to turn a blind eye as they lead this country and most the world into a perfect storm.
Why is Putin smiling?
1
"Chinese Factories"? for world's consumption?
Perhaps they should grow something.
1
Since borrowing is so cheap (and apparently will become cheaper, soon) we in the U.S. need a massive public works project similar to the WPA; fix our roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. More solar, geothermal, wind, and hydropower investment would provide well-paying jobs (unlike the “full employment” we have now—I live in a semi-rural area, where half the people I know cobble together a living from several part-time jobs; part time so the employers won’t have to bear the cost of health insurance).
Instead, the ill-conceived tax cuts have been used to buoy zombie corporations (mismanaged businesses that would not survive in a free market—they survive because of cheap borrowing), stock buy backs, etc. What we have is money making money with no investment in our society—and do we even have a society anymore? That’s the core question that motivates both the left and the right. I would conclude that we do not; perhaps a worldwide economic crisis is what we need to come together as a nation again. The current administration only divides us from one another; tribalism can only harm us economically.
1
We will know we are facing an economic extinction-level event when Germany applies to Greece for an economic bailout.
5
@EMIP
Mere two weeks ago, the NYT was lamenting that there was a labor shortage in Germany, in part because the refugees they trained were being deported and businesses were not happy. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/world/europe/germany-refugees-jobs-merkel.html
Yet in a matter of 14 days, they've changed their tune and now there's a slowdown due to Trump's policies? Come on.
1
@EMIP
or when we start buying Greek cars and eating German food!
1
@Viv your comment is right on the money; especially when one considers that the German workforce is aging without sufficient younger generation Germans to fill in: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/german-economy-not-aging-gracefully/a-47499524
Euro-centrism and opposition to immigration based on ethnic and religious bigotry are not conducive to economic growth.
2
It‘s 2019 and globalization has been the core principle of our time for at least 25 years.
Even if the US economy today is mostly based on small business with less than 100 employees and a less global appeal – it still depends on the free flow of goods and competitive prices, e.g. for steel.
Trumps short-sighted and unpredictable approach to foreign trade (and politics in general) will deter investments, it will force big corporations to cut thousands of jobs (like G.M. just did) and it will make the already struggling auto industry a trigger for global recession—which will at the latest then hit those small American businesses.
1
@Martin
Trump is true to his colors. He alone with his administration of sycophants will demolish the global economy. He does to the nation and the world as he did to his business partners who paid for his bankruptcies while he filled his pockets and walked away.
1
'Economists say the country should take advantage of record low interest rates to invest in infrastructure such as its aging rail network, in education and in research and development.'
I think that is something we Americans should be doing, as well.
Unfortunately, we won't.
10
Let's keep in mind that neither one of these places gives a hoot about us.
Once we get that straight, things will start to get better for us.
5
Wherever Germany "cares" about the the USA is irrelevant to the fact that Trump's idiocy is damaging the world economy. I would be less concerned about whether other countries "care" (although this thought is the symptom of a malignant, destructive cynicism), and more about a president who a) doesn't understand how global trade works, b) has surrounded himself with yes men to back up his ignorance, and c) most definitely doesn't care if you, your family, or your community gets hurt as long as he "wins."
1
Can the reporter also explain why China and Germany exporting less stuff to other countries is bad for those other countries?
I dont have enough knowledge to understand global financial stuff.
6
It means other countries are consuming less goods, meaning consumers are tightening budgets aka, global recession. Also we provide substantial amount of goods and services to both countries meaning if their economies slow, they are less likely to consume OUR goods and services and basically its bad news for all.
5
The Trump effect has finally started to snuffed out the Obama effect.
Now Trump can set his sights on beating the George W. Bush’s efforts at undoing in Bill Clinton’s economy.
Here we go again.
5
I have to ask--do Republicans know anything about business?
3
This is how world wars start...power vacuum left be declining power, rising nationalism, slowing economies, all we need is a royal shot and it is to the trenches.
But this time...it could spell the end of humankind according to Herman Kahn.
3
@Nathan
Yes, wars always start for resources and markets, never for ideals like democracy and freedom, that is jingoism, propaganda. Trump wants regime change in Venezuela for the oil, not to bring prosperity to the people, the same for Iran. One does not impose sanctions starving the people in order to bring them the blessings of democracy and freedom.
2
The rising tide of right wing nationalism in Europe coupled with sinking economies sounds eerily familiar. Think post-WW I Germany.
1
Morally bankrupt, mentally unable to grasp the trending economy. His reactionary policies remind me of a B actor who 's wife had to whisper the answers into his ear.
Vote democratic.
6
This has been expected. We've had an econometric expansion for over a decade. Since Obama took office, the S&P has more than tripled, and this has been one of the longest bull markets ever. It has only been a question of when, not if, the contraction will begin. The great prognosticator of recession, the bond inversion curve, showed up many months ago.
One can only hope the recession is shallow and short.
OTOH, if it lasts until November 2020, there will be a moving van at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave in January.
1
Econometric?
@Rich
it is easy to start a trade war, not so easy to end it
Boom & bust, boom & bust, boom & bust. De rigueur. What's new? Why do we act like each economic slump is the end of civilization? Business is cyclical, unless, of course, you've got a genie hidden away in a bottle...
4
70% of the U.S. economy is fueled by consumer spending and consumer spending is at the highest level seen in 20 years. 66% of the United States economy is small business owned. Therefore a majority of Americans don't work for corporations, in fact 99% of all businesses have employees of 500 or less.
"According to data from the Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs, there were 5.6 million employer firms in the United States in 2016.
-Firms with fewer than 500 workers accounted for 99.7 percent of those businesses.
-Firms with fewer than 100 workers accounted for 98.2 percent.
- Firms with fewer than 20 workers made up 89.0 percent."
In all reality of global slowdown is not that bad. According to traditional economics when demand lowers the price of everything else also lowers. I have to agree with other kind of iron's the global elite have gotten too fat off of the blue collar worker. Only 54% of Americans have an investment in the stock market, which by the way is up 6000 points since January 2017.
Just goes to show you how much the world was taking advantage of the United States of America. Never more proud to be an American.
6
@akeptwatchoverthewatcher
I guess all those little businesses were selling their homemade knitted projects with knitting needles made in China.
@akeptwatchoverthewatcher Yep. We've been taken advantage of to the point of being the richest country in history!
In China's case, our laissez-fair attitude toward unfair trade practices and intellectual theft essentially created some of their most successful companies and catalyzed booming trade. Pax Americana allowed Germany (and others) to invest money, otherwise needed for their own defense, in their economy, thereby assisting their auto companies. Sure, the US benefited from the stable, growing global economy aided by the infrastructure largely paid for by the US, but was that benefit commensurate with the high cost paid. Trump, I think, has correctly pointed out that the US has been taken advantage of by many of our trading partners in a number of ways. It is long past time that our trading partners compete by the same set of rules and fairly contribute to the stability of our world order, the one that allows everyone the opportunity to thrive. Disrupting the status quo for a better future will be painful, as today's economic announcement and market declines prove, but hopefully will result in a fairer and more profitable future for all.
12
Thanks. Nobody else ever thought of these platitudes and cliches.
Good grief.
1
@toni fair points. Sure, our European and Asian allies have benefitted from US-funded and nurtured Pax Americana but as the term implies, we built the post-war world order. We didn't do so for purely altruistic reasons but because stability, mostly on our terms, benefits us most of all. The order needed tweaks for sure, but to junk it ensures chaos will be followed by an order not of our making. It will surely benefit someone, likely China, far more than it does us.
@Toni
Be sure to let Britain know that you are including kippers in your diet.
What else do expect when our economic policy is being dictated by a man who declared bankruptcy six times and a party whose members believe humans rode dinosaurs?
6
@Sterling
Lincoln and his partner started buying out other stores' inventories on credit, but their own sales were dismal. As the store's debts mounted, Lincoln sold his share, but when his partner died, the future President became liable for $1000 in back payments. Lincoln didn't have modern bankruptcy laws to protect him, so when his creditors took him to court, he lost his two remaining assets: a horse and some surveying gear. That wasn't enough to foot his bill, though, and Lincoln continued paying off his debts until well into the 1840s.
Lincoln's not alone in the annals of bankrupt commanders-in-chief, though. Ulysses S. Grant went bankrupt after leaving office when a partner in an investment-banking venture swindled him. Thomas Jefferson filed for bankruptcy several times, including after leaving office, possibly because he threw around a lot of cash on food and wine. William McKinley went bankrupt while serving as Ohio's governor in 1893; he was $130,000 in the red before eventually straightening out with the help of friends. He won the White House just three years later.
Also Henry Ford went bankrupt, Walt Disney went bankrupt, Milton Hershey went bankrupt, HJ Heinz went bankrupt, and PT Barnum went bankrupt.
Not sure what your point is but Trump at least understands how the blue collar person feels. The United States internal economy is doing well.
2
@Sterling And that has what to do with Germany?
We have gotten the government we deserve and that government is led by rich men from commerce and the usual political parasites that have never had to actually work.
These men are pleased with what they have done to help their social order and businesses.
We are fighting religious zealots around the world that will not ever go away. Never.
The public needs to grasp that our government is broken. We helped it slide into a private club.
Our children are fighting the wrong people.
We need to support the young when they oppose the banks and the government. We need to help them fight. We even need to join the fight.
Are there even enough of us that are fed up enough to take a stand?
History is repeating itself economically as it always has, the only difference is the middle class slide into poverty keeps us too occupied with stying afloat to be able to help burn something down and march to the steps of the country club and threaten to burn it down , with the occupants. The heat is rising.
We have created a social status mess. The money and the markets are just the tip of the iceberg.
3
Nothing like gratuitously poking in the eye one of our erstwhile closest allies (Germany) and also pointlessly provoking another economic power (China), perhaps the only nation that could potentially help with N. Korea and other Asian hotspots!
And for what? The overweening ego of an egomaniac? A crazed desire to disrupt and destroy simply because it's in your power?
And then, let's all be "shocked, simply shocked" when Germany and China refuse to cooperate with the USA during diplomatic, international security, or economic crises! Along with Canada, England, France, all the Euros, and Australia.
The USA is increasingly isolating itself from the rest of the world as a rogue nation! And this self-isolation isn't the same as traditional "isolationism" (in part because isolationism demurs at getting involved in military conflicts overseas!)
6
This trade war seems like a great way for Putin to hurt his top three enemies: USA, China, EU.
Good leadership on his part by installing a puppet dictator in the US
3
This is good news for Russia, whose GDP is considerably less than that of California. Keep up the good work comrades trump and McTurtle: Russia needs your service. The only way that crime infested system can become an empire again is if the rest of the world lowers *their* standards of living.
4
The chickens of Trump's foreign-policy-by-stunt approach are coming home to roost.
3
Trump went about trade negotiations in a completely ignorant, hostile and
one sided manner , even with our longstanding allies .
The world is now reaping the benefits of this short-sided and regressive policy making by a man with a truly dark soul .
4
I was willing to buy another German-made car so I visited the showroom but the price tags were ridiculous...they have really priced themselves into a deep hole.
As to China I do not like to buy from controlling murdering thieves period.
3
@Charlie - We now have a couple of free EV charging stations in my neighborhood and I recently talked to a Tesla owner while he was recharging. In the short time it took to recharge his car, I was completely sold. He had looked at a BMW first but went with the Tesla and never looked back. His only complaint about the car was that it has no motor noise so it took some getting used to when he first drove it. He said it was really, really quiet inside.
His dad went and bought one after his son had his for about six months.
1
This will likely be censored by the NYT but I think I will say it anyway. I look at the commentary on this article. And I realize it's 8 in 10 will be reelected. If only because the winners (And let's face it the average NYT reader/writer is a winner in this mess) prove in comment after comment they are completely and utterly ignoring or don't care what had a lot to with Trump winning in the first place. Yes Global trade has benefited a handful of megacities but for the rest of country? Denigrated here as the Rust belt or flyover country or deplorables. The attitude form so many of the winners is I got mine sc--w you jack. And this is hardly Republican sight. Vote democratic has so many of winners here proclaim ? I'd sooner put a bullet in my head. I think I'll stay home. If one thing the comments of the "Democratic Winners" of globalization beyond reasonable doubt is they care more about China and the 3rd world then their fellow citizens. The Democrats are no more interested in the welfare of the losers of globalization then the Republicans. A plague on both parties. I'm staying home. I doubt I'm unique!
5
The blame in the GOP which destroyed the unions and then passed tax cut after tax cuts to the rich while taking away healthcare and education from its base. Then it tells the base that the “others” and immigrants are taking away their job. Perfect demagoguery and it’s frothing at the mouth base votes against its own interest by voting for the party that just took money their benefits away and gave it to the rich.
The solution is to fo tax the rich and corporations that benefit from globalization and then use it to educate Americans for new economy jobs and provide healthcare and infrastructure.
1
@Thought Provoking - "...and then use it to educate Americans for new economy jobs."
You can't teach a Golden Retriever advanced physics. Fetch, maybe a raised paw for hello, but no chance of working for NASA.
Half of all Americans have average or less than average intelligence. Go to any store today and talk to the average employee. Most can't find a product on their own shelves with a nearby computer to help out. How do we retrain less than high IQ people for jobs that require so much intelligence?
@Stephan
In 2018, New Mexico exported $3.7 billion of Made-in-America goods to the world. In 2016, exports from New Mexico supported an estimated 15 thousand jobs. The state's largest market is Mexico and its second largest market is China. If you would truly rather put a bullet in your head (please don't do it by the way) than vote Democratic, because only rich Eastern elites benefit from free trade, then I would respectfully suggest that you are being disingenuous or you are misinformed.
1
But is it hurting American liberals?
—-asking for a Trump supporter friend.
A slowing economy is bad news for many people because our entire grid is based on relentlessly increasing population and consumption that's creating anthropogenic mass extinction.
It's good news for the biosphere and all the other organisms that evolved here with us because it means at least a temporary slowing of the rate of anthropogenic mass extinction.
Just remember, the exploitive ideology behind our current world economy--relentless growth regardless of the consequences--is the ideology of cancer cells. Both ultimately lead to death.
6
If you are unaware, Chinese companies as a majority of them are small even though they work in cohorts, have a limit on the amount of actual dollars and other currencies they are allowed to hold. There is no transferring the money directly for yuan in the bank. China holds a vast majority of other countries' physical monies in digital supply. It is fair to say the lack of demand for the physical supply means China holds a surplus of other countries wealth in a large part to home delivery. What needs to happen with a noncompetitive clause is to use public Wi-Fi to read in product RFID tags in the area of a stadium distance to relate to buyers within a larger distance if a product is on the shelf and can be bought cheaper than ordering online or requesting mail service from a third party hindering all goods priced made.
1
Forget Trump's tax returns let take a look at his GPA at Wharton. Are we sure he graduated? I am confident he received a failing grade for Econ 101. Welcome to the Trump Recession.
.
7
Here is a thought. Perhaps Germany could stimulate its economy by providing its own security. (And the greatest portion of Western Europe's security needs.) It would allow the US to withdraw from NATO. The European Union could replace NATO with an Article 42(7) Mutual Defence Force.
5
@R
The US would never agree to that.
2.5 million Americans are employed in aerospace and defense. That's 2% of the employed population and 20% of manufacturing jobs.
The average salary of an American working those jobs is $90K, and a huge portion of them are in Texas.
So you want to tell your fellow Texans to find something else to do?
3
@R
We could cut our defense budget in half that way.
2
@Viv
We never asked those in the rust belt that question when we shipped their jobs over seas.
Thank God for Trump! Free Trade has never been "free". It comes at the cost of the domestic worker. The only people to have ever benefited from it are the rich. America's economy was never stronger than when it had strong protectionism. Clinton and Obama sold out the American worker. Trump is actually working to protect them and America's long-term interests so of course liberals are opposed to it.
8
@Sparky The way in which the president "protects" domestic workers is a misfire, even if I agree with some of his protectionist instincts. He has been guided by his own Dunning-Kruger-addled mind and the ill-informed, hawkish opinions of his advisors. Expertise and altruism have been shunned since Inauguration Day 2017, and as a result, the world economy is being steered into an abyss by a deeply unqualified figure.
7
@Sarah Meisch
You mean the same "expertise and altruism" that got people into this trade position in the first place?
It is "expertise and altruism" that China shunned decades ago in pursuing academically discredited mercantilism policies. Yet it's those very policies that turned it into a global financial powerhouse, undercutting the financial wellbeing of most people around the globe.
6
Trump will blame Obama for the next great world recession.
10
Let the TDS comments commence with fervor.
Trump will shout "fake news."
The most gullible among us will believe him, the racists won't care as long as brown and black people are being harmed, and the faux-Christians will view it as a sign of Armageddon, which is all they are concerned about.
This is how far a once-great nation has sunk.
18
It's working!
He alone can break it.
World, as an American, I am mortified daily. We must fix this in 2020.
9
For all those posting that trump's base will stick with him in spite of the economy, I say its not his base he has to worry about. If the King Makers start to lose money, if their investments fail to pay off as they expect, they will pull the plug on trump. It is already starting to happen...there is a slow drip coming from the Right about trump's unfitness, the worm is turning, and I will bet you five bucks he won't last another two years.
5
Imagine how much actual good that Fox News, could do if they care about their listeners. They have a large voice and yet use it to denigrate, gaslight and promote debunked conspiracies. They hire yelling screaming mob inciting far-right activists.
Fox still has a tabloid mentality and a uniquely dangerously symbiotic relationship to The Donald who uses them for narcissistic supply. Imagine if Fox actual spoke truth to power.
Marry a Narcissist and they ruin your life. Elect a Malignant Narcissist and they will wreck the world economies, safety nets, civility, and world health.
The GOP too is delighting the gaslighters. They don't appear to be conservative for all, just increasing the 1% wealth positions. Or even at all. Conserving resources and clean and water...nope. Quite the opposite. Because profits matter more.
That reckless impulsive tax cut was done in dim lighting.
3
@ My fellow NYT readers:
It’s time for us to stop moaning, and begin to do everything we can——persuasion, financial support, political efforts—- to defeat Trump and all his Republican enablers, and to elect a Democrat President and a Democratic Congress in 2020!
The soul of America is at stake.
11
Let’s pick one. Someone who’s nice; someone who’s smart; someone who likes women and believes in equality; someone who will protect a woman’s right to dominion and control of her own body; someone who will protect children at the border and inside the border and outside the border; someone who is educated; someone who acts as if there is a God; someone who is a soldier; someone who understands the human cost of war; someone who confronts racism; someone who is not beholden to special interests; someone who is not dynastic; someone who will remember the names of disaster areas when in then; someone who does not play golf; someone who does not cheat on their spouse. someone who is not just one thing; someone who will win.
4
@Mix Rix. I was waiting for you to say Mayor Pete!
1
This is more than Germany and China: their problems are theirs to solve. Yet it's not so easy: the economy is linked globally and no return to isolation, even if feasible, is going to come without a global downturn and maybe a global war.
Trump is the biggest wrecker imaginable: yes, China was stealing our IP but this dunce and cause of serial bankruptcies is using a sledge-hammer when a scalpel should be employed.
We will ALL do down together, and we know who to punish: Trump.
4
I just don't buy what this article is selling even with its statistics. Unemployment may be a tad high some places in this great big world of ours but with lots of folks getting a pay check every week by working for it or thru investments we got money in folks pockets that are gonna live their life style and burn thru it. (the wise may even save a bit of it). The world economy is a lot bigger then trump's tweets that try to inhibit it with his tariff on and off again diatribes. Chill and enjoy the longest world bull market in history and ignore trump and his stupid tweets. He'll soon be history.
2
How long before the “Obama did it” segments start on Fox News and appear in Trumps twitter feed?
3, 2, 1...
3
A draft-dodging incompetent, who has the loyalty of veterans; an adulterous sexual predator who has the support of evangelical "Christians"; a braggart failed businessman who left a trail of bankruptcies and unpaid bills. This is the president put into office by non-voters and Green Party idealists. We need to put as much work into getting him out of the White House as we put into our comments - otherwise we are just as culpable.
5
Good. Let’s stop producing cars altogether and sending bad quality toys and other goods all over the world. Enough of trashing the environment and our planet. There’s a silver lining in having imbeciles in power after all.
2
At least we can say Republicans are consistent. Bush killed the global economy leading to the 2008 economic collapse (which Obama rescued), and now Trump is repeating Bush' dismal performance.
Demonstrating how completely unsuited he was for the job, Trump alleged that "tariff wars are easy to win" but now his tariff war is leading the global economy into recession.
Of course, Trump will never admit to his mistakes because that might cause the remaining, uninformed Americans to vote Dem.
In the 60's, JFK challenged America to compete with Russia in the space race and we succeeded. With training and organized leadership, America can compete with any nation, including China. But Trump doesn't create, he destroys as evidenced by six bankruptcies and policies that are leading to war. And when that war with Iran begins, Trump gets War Powers Act privileges meaning the next election is "postponed" and free speech is throttled by Trump.
Impeachment can't rescue us, rather, Hong Kong is demonstrating how to change direction.
4
The two countries which have have profited the most from export while not growing their domestic consumption to balance the scales are now paying the price. And I'm supposed to be bothered by that because? While there are no true winners in a global trade war the abuses of Germany which runs both budget and trade surpluses while failing to meet it's own agreed upon defense obligations and of China who's violations of global trading standards are too long to fully mention in this format, are finally being called to account. Could Trump being doing a better job of it, sure. Could he have found allies to make this mission more multilateral, sure. But US presidents have talked about this issues and done nothing for decades and now finally a president is taking a stand. Better late than never.
8
No surprises here. Most don't understand that Trump's trade war is intended is to prove that the U.S. can take more economic punishment than China, Germany, etc. and that the U.S. will inevitably win this trade war one way or another, i.e. China's economy is ruined or China cries "uncle."
7
See Regan v USSR
1
Global trade benefits everyone only when it is FAIR. China never has been willing to engage in fair trade. They make promises that they don’t keep. America competes successfully in many sectors when the trade is fair.
9
I’m amazed at the narrow views of most of the comments. Yes, if we only care about ourselves and always act in only our self interest, many of these comments makes sense. However, we all live in this tiny planet and we need to figure how to get along, lift each other up and start solving some of global issues in a rational way, otherwise, it’s going to get ugly fast.
8
@Tim Rutledge
I umherstand the parties this way:
GOP = Me First
Dems = We all do better when we all do better.
Those views are mutually exclusive.
8
More properly put-- GOP= Capitalists, Americans first, make us richer and more powerful a nation. Dems= Socialists, Share our wealth globally, make us poorer and weaker as a nation...
@Lindsey E. Reese
Amusing.
Norway has balanced budgets and a huge Sovereign Fund with lots of money in it.
The US is raising its debt ceiling again. 50% of Americans cannot handle a $500 sudden hit.
I agree the super rich are doing well and you totally support the super rich at the expense of the workers.
These economic measures are acts of war, pure and simple.
4
@arvay. How so?
It seems unbelievable that Germany is not fighting back, showing some sign, some actions that will financial hurt the U.S. as a result of the trade wars Trump has dumped on the world economy. Why. The sooner Germany starts realizing that only Germany can take care of itself, not the U.S. then better off Europe will be. It has been a long time since the end of WWII. I think Germany needs to wake up to living in the present, for the future, not asking for forgiveness of the past. Look what the U.S. did to their black immigrants, to their American Indians, to their present day immigrants. Isn't that enough proof Germany should be imposing tariffs to offset the harm Trump is doing to Europe. Wake up, surely you must have someone, not Merkel, that has a strong back and the will to led the nation.
1
@Me Too, Germany can not take care of itself. It relies on the export of 'luxury' automobiles-- the list price inside Germany itself is thousands cheaper.
1
@Ryan
Agree. It's complicated. Maybe changing the terms of the agreement for U.S. military posts in Germany would be a start. At least something to show an "upper lip" to our outrageous president.
1
@Me Too First of all, Germany doesn't do trade politics, that is the domain of the European Union. Which is a smart move because the EU for all its failures is a behemoth of 500 million people and not as easily pushed around as its individual members would be. That is, I assume, one reason why US right wingers are so delighted about Brexit. I guess they think it is more convenient for the US to deal with an island in the North Sea rather than the EU.
The EU has strictly gone tit-for-tat in this whole trade madness. I don't think anyone in Europe really wants a trade war. So they play defense and keep their powder dry. One day one hopes there must be a more sane approach to trade (or any) policy in Washington again and then they'll all sit down and come to an agreement like adults. Escalating it in the meantime to where it becomes a matter of pride and willful damage doesn't help.
So I don't think the EU's handling of the trade issues so far has been unreasonable.
3
I have travelled extensively both through Germany and China and I disagree with the arguments behind their slowdown. Germany is slowing not because of some trade war but because it no longer makes anything that anybody wants to buy, their products are not innovative and expensive. The problem with China is that wages have grown rapidly in the last 20 years, it no longer has 1 billion workers ready to work for a bowl of rice, wages have risen so manufacturers are looking elsewhere, e.g. India, Bangladesh etc.. which are much much cheaper. The government there is investing heavily in infrastructure in a bid to get the economy going, but since the economy is so big that infrastructure investment no longer grows that economy by 10% but by 1-2%. Most of that new infrastructure is in my opinion unnecessary, for example Beijing has 6 ring roads when the likes of Paris, Berlin or London have only 1. Building expressways through city centers is common there, something like that would never be allowed in Europe.
5
The thing about Trump is that he has shown that democracy, and its principles, are subject largely to the good faith of those who represent it. As soon as leaders choose to abandon good faith, chaos rapidly ensues. Putin has shown that a democratically elected leader without good faith is a tyrant, and, alas he becomes a role model for others such as Trump, who seek to emulate him.
The destruction of good faith means that so-called “values”, which are uncodified imaginations, are supplanted by the blunt trauma of reality where a leader abandons precedents and rationality. This is what Trump has done with China and Germany.
If his intention is MAGA, then he should have started by eruditely realigning US trade doctrines, defined by globalised ideas of shipping manufacturing jobs to where labour is cheapest, so that American industry was in the best possible position to step in to seamlessly take back it had already given away. This would have taken time and patience, neither of which Trump has. He would have needed the support of industry, the financial sector, and organised labour to build a coalition of capable partners to assume an immense burden of becoming the factory of the world. Instead, he foists this burden on to a system profoundly unable to cope.
This man, and his administration, must be removed. His brand is catastrophic incompetence. He thinks he can snap his fingers and the world falls in line. He is about to make America weaker than it has ever been.
7
One of the reasons of having free trade is to have countries trade goods and services instead of bullets and missiles.
Well, our dear leader has created a trade situation where the bullets and the missiles might become in production.
I hope this is a very bad dream I am having.
4
@freeasabirdNot really fair reasoning. Free trade has NEVER been a cause for war. Greed has, and is linked to free trade.
1
Russian finally stuck it to the West, without even firing a single shot.
All they had to do with help put Trump and office and watch him go.
17
Great news!
4
@Sean
I cannot tell if this is sarcasm or not.
1
Once the majority of the Trump voters grow weary of the single-issue that gives them so much joy and excitement (i.e., brown immigrants), they will hopefully expand the aperture a bit and realize their lot in life is getting worse every single day.
All the jobs and promises of a return to 1950's America area an illusion, and they're being suckered. Big time. Wake up people.
3
It is astonishing how NYT and its readers hate DT. For them, he is source of all evil that there is and their blind hatred prevents them from any rational considerations.
US is entirely entitled to rearrange the trade with China. That this is turning into an ugly dispute is their choice, and DT is not causing any sort of 'trade war'. Contrarily, he is trying to maintain US as the paragon of the global economy. Not that the liberals will ever be able to understand something like that …
As for Germany, why would we worry about them having troubles selling Mercedeses or Audis? It is only fair that the countries hell-bent on selling their stuff abroad rather than selling domestically, as China and Germany, be hit by those foolishly buying their products for many years now. Enough is enough. China and Germans massively sell their luxuries everywhere and totally depend on the openness and friendliness of foreign markets.
7
I think it’s more complicated than this
2
“DT is not causing any kind of trade war.” Your words. You do realize that it was DT who said trade wars are easy to win?
1
Another Trump-bashing article with few facts and even less knowledge of the situation in Germany. I would recommend to keep emotions at bay if you wish Trump will not be re-elected. Now to the facts - I live and work in Germany for 20 years. My colleagues and myself (all very well-qualified and high-income) are not happy and do not support the Merkel socialist government. Why pay taxes to support illegal immigration of muslim male migrants who live off of our taxes? The social system that caters to politicians (if you are incapable you go to politics)? The state-run media what we pay for and what provides propaganda? Not functioning military (actually in shambes) in a state that thinks we need NOT to co-operation with the US. So many have decided to work part time. Productivity? What for? If a state stands for nothing it is nothing. Welcome to Germany!
8
Indulge in destroying enough lives and something is bound to come back in fair payment. The US has destroyed too many lives, counties, and families to expect anything different.
4
In other words, our morally bankrupt president, who bankrupted numerous business enterprises in his past, is now going to bankrupt the global economy? I’m shocked I tell you, shocked!
10
Can we change the constitution and be like Russia where Obama can be President again after sitting out for four years?
4
I say let the market free fall and that will take away Trump's bragging right and re-election chance.
7
You seem to forget we are in a post-fact world now. If the market drops, its obama’s fault. Fox news says so.
2
I believe we are slowly moving towards a global recession -
thanks to the incredible lack of foresight of Trump.
It seems to have escaped him that the US does not exist in a vacuum .
Anyone up for educating him?
Or should we all just wait for the big boom?
4
We were heading there with or without DJT. There are simply too many people in the world and too much of the wealth gathered at the top (that includes most Americans compared to the rest of the world).
1
There is a school of thought that Trump and friends (Pompeo , Bolton). are not motivated to "win" a trade war. Rather, the goal (and this is definitely true for Bolton) is to cripple China and maintain US economic and military dominance, no matter the consequences. Unemployment, a ruined economy ... so what? As long as US is in a position to fulfill its destiny. And what is that destiny? According to Pompeo, to protect ISRAEL. IF that is so, well just stay out of the stock market!
6
Someone had to deal with China
It’s not perfect but something had to de done
8
Trump was finally able to reverse the best Obama era accomplishment, the growing economy! He/they should be proud.
5
Here comes the Trump Recession.... yes he will own this!
3
When you give the keys of the kingdom to a fool, this is what you should expect. The tragedy is that there are people so ignorant that vote that do not see the damage their choice is creating to this country and to the world.
7
Donald Trump and his evil elves will bring down everyone's economy. Was it well thought out and done by the wisest of economic experts? No it was done by whim and TV experts from the world of Fox. Why didn't the leaders in the Republican Party stop him? Because they have no clue as to what global economics is all about. All they want are tax cuts for themselves and their backers and reactionary jurists to rewrite the laws. Well done G.O.P. you've ruined the economy again.
5
S&P stock prices are not the real economy. So far, the picture is such that China and Germany are in trouble, while US GDP growth is still solid. We'll have to wait to see how the US performs over the next couple of quarters - but don't dismiss the possibility that US keeps strong while trade partners such as China and Germany struggle.
Trump may seize this of course and claim victory (and re-election).
1
I hate to say it, but a recession may be just what we need for Donald's minions to turn against him. Bernie 2020.
2
I am from Germany, The Stubbornness of the German government to rely on 2 factors - the car industry and the Chinese market- will take its toll and gonna hurt the German way of life big-time. The bonanza period is over and we are gonna see big trouble with the far right.
6
So much winning. Don’t worry. The Republican Party will respond with more tax cuts for the rich, hearings into the Clinton’s whatever and looser gun laws.
8
Trump recession on its way! Well, one positive side effect is that it would put him in the dustbin of history and we could get on with a rational, uniter president. Just a dream????
3
So, with Trump at the helm everyone loses. And yet he talks and talks and talks about liking “winners” ... which the world is running out of ... fast. Oh, the damage he does!
4
Wow! It is amazing how Trump and his Republican enablers caused a global recession. For all those in the business community who supported and continue to support Trump, are you happy now? Is this the result you were hoping for?
4
There's good news on the horizon, however. Our "President" just received a "very beautiful" letter from Chairman Kim Jong-un. Once North Korea starts buying American goods, the economy will magically rebound. A really stable genius, this guy.
3
@Feugo
Even if Trump would take advice, from whom? None of his “advisors” have any expertise. Are we talking Wilbur Ross? Peter Navarro? Steve Mnuchin? Larry Kudlow?
Trump chose these people to affirm his uninformed, ridiculous economic “policy”
I truly fear for my economic security.
6
One thing is certain Trump won office by saying he was different with no prior record to scrutinize, now he'll have to stand on his own two feet and his disastrous record will be shredded in front of him when he starts those sweeping fantasist lies about how wonderful he has been.
2
let's put another businessman in charge of the economy how is that working out? Donald Trump, George W Bush, let's get rid of these clowns it's time to put a Democrat back in charge the only people that know how to actually implement normal, established sound economic policy. Trump is a joke.
3
Trump, in his malign ignorance and egotism, has started a trade war that's lose/lose for virtually everybody. And his hard core supporters dismiss his serious critics as a bunch of spiteful Cassandras.
What frightened me initially (and still frightens me) is that people have given the incredible power of the presidency to Trump.
82
@Brody Have you looked at the stock market recently? Corporate earnings? Corporate investment? Wage growth? The US is not winning either.
15
@Brody check our bond rates and leading indicators. We are going to lose with China. Then go look up the expression "Pyrrhic Victory."
Trump knows NOTHING.
9
@Brody would you care to wait a year , things might be different then
1
German auto manufacturers employ thousands of workers throughout the south in Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama. Trump's tariff threats are playing with the livelihood and lives of those workers. And indirectly also causing havoc for the various vendors here in the U.S. that supply those manufacturing plants with materials and services.
I doubt Trump realizes any of this or cares. But these companies are already adjusting for the upcoming U.S. recession. We are going to see a domino effect here in the next few months.
4
It looks as if Trump’s amateur economics is starting to take effect. Once the tide reverses it can hard to turn it back. Lowering interest rates will have limited effect if the system bogs down. Another stimulus might be hard to implement. Is it worth suffering through a recession to see the end of Trump? I’m not sure but we may find out in a year or so.
4
@RW Unfortunately a recession may be the only way to see the end of rump. His working stiff followers will vote for him regardless if they are starving but the rich will hold back any money to support his campaign. I doubt Trump will spend his own money this time if he thinks he may lose. There is still the Mueller report and a few other surprises that Trump will have to deal with. I do not envision any good news for him.
The only economy Trump understands is the world of money laundering... where the people with the most buy expensive real estate to flee elsewhere.
How about some special taxes on real estate settlements for purchases from foreigners? A 30% tax sounds good to me. Can we possibly ruin his business as he is ruining other businesses? It's only fair.
4
We need win-win economic policies, not policies that are designed to hurt others and inevitably lead to lose-lose and assured mutual destruction.
A bully only sees the latter possibility.
Such a “stable genius”.
6
Trump's Lose-Lose economics are bearing fruit. The only question is, will it be a recession or a Depression.
5
Trump has sought to undo everything that President Obama accomplished. He can soon check "Obama's economic recovery" off the list.
10
Ironically, Trump is helping reduce Carbon Dioxide emissions by slowing the global economy. Sadly, unintentional....
4
How nice that Jack Ewing (otherwise unidentified as to his qualifications to offer such lofty views) has now explained it all for us peasants: it's the trade war, baby.
Oh? This article--part of the NYTimes's efforts to "contextualize" everything around the Trump Monster-- reduces the almost incomprehensible complexities of international trade and the growth cycles of capitalism to a pastiche of shopworn phrases. Subtext: absent this "trade war," and the vulgarian in the White House, everything would be hunky-dory.
Well, one might mention the Potemkin Village that is the Chinese economy (whole cities built and unoccupied; it took an Australian journalist who visited them to point this out); ditto the auto industry, plagued in Germany and elsewhere with over-capacity and a fitful transition to electric cars that no one actually, absent tax-breaks, seems to want to buy.
But, no...it's all...well, his fault.
7
W. allowed Wall street to melt the global markets, now Trump will melt down the global markets for his own egocentric manipulations of trade wars. We middle class can never get a break these one percenters will wreck it, just to buy it all up after the crash at pennies on the dollar.
It is just a game for wheeler dealers who play fast and loose with our lives. But as long as the typical staunch republican can get a tax break on his business and get cheap fuel for his fleet of delivery trucks, nothing will ever change.
The sheer lack of morals in our senate and business class is sorely lacking. So tired of being trickled on, it burns my eyes!
203
@pizza man
President Obama's "TPP" was trade strategy which would have avoided this reciprocal pain and potentially USA loss of currency supremacy.
Had we adopted TPP not only would we've isolated China from Pacific ring, but also caused them to retract demands to extract Intellectual Property as price for doing business there.
However, more importantly, we would have maintained relationships with allies rather than placing them in crosshairs as economic casualties.
1
@pizza man
You are so right, pizza man. The corruption is deep on both sides of the aisle and in the corporate/ media/1% world as those of us who are not in this high roller world get played for fools.
2
Huh? Where do u have this from that it is Trumps tariffs?
Since the VW / Audi scandal the mood here is pro e-cars and contra fuel burners. That s 90% of the prob.
Karl
7
It's comforting the know that we have such strong, wise leadership in these trying times. Not....
2
Trump's chickens are coming home to roost from every conceivable direction. Go chickens!
I’m sure that the knuckle heads think that a global recession necessitates domestic expansion.
Just like many people and countries smile at the troubles the US have, I smile at Germany having issues. They really needed to be knocked down a few pegs with their lack of respect when dealing with us. HA!
7
So schadenfreude is more important than the fact that their economic slump will harm us too?
3
@Susan This isnt just for schadenfreude, although thats a part. It will also weaken their position when dealing with us.
2
@Don Q
The point of a global economy is that what happens to one, eventually happens to all. I can't laugh at any of it. -- thegamesmenplay.com
1
Democratic party just got dealt a poke hand of four aces. The ability of a president to individually do much to affect the global economy is well established in the field of economics, but Trump's prominent, aggressive, ridiculous tariff induced trade war, coupled with the general population's ignorance of how the economy really works, means that he's going to get blamed for it.
"Being blamed for something that's not your fault." We are about to witness what happens when a sociopath loses face.
2
We need to slow down our growing consumption and polluting the world leading to increased rate of climate change and destruction. It's also creating growing income and social inequality all around, even in most developing countries including "communist" China.
Global economic growth was and still is mostly fueled by American consumption. Any country wanting to be more prosperous or to remain rich (e.g. Germany) basically rely on export mainly to American market and exploit American consumers. That proverbial American middle class, who form the backbone of post WW2 american consumerism, were also exploited by most American millionaire/billionaires and companies owned by them. Those rich folks enriched themselves at the cost of the country and its people, while contributing very little to the country. Trump tax and other policies made the already bad situation worse, far worse. Hope this trade war would bring some sanity back to American voters and make some positive development for the planet.
3
One thing is certain; we should eat more soybeans. This nation cannot afford a collapse of farming.
2
@PATRICK,
I agree, time for citizens who have previously avoided any contribution to this country, in service, to put our endeavors to help our greatest national resource, our farmers.
Make every possible food with soybeans; it's our "French Fry" at this time.
1
If you are an investor and you are feeling the urge to safeguard your investments, instead of Treasury Bills with their declining Yields, try investing in companies here in America, safe from foreign risks in other nations. Perhaps the safest place now is in American companies with no holdings in foreign lands.
2
Cue the Trump apologists to come onto Fox News and Fox Business to boast that the tariffs are 'really hurting' China and Germany. As if that is the goal. Actually, for a lot of Trump fans that is probably just what they want.
Maybe someone can explain to them that trade is supposed to be mutually beneficial and that when our trading partners and allies are hurting, it hurts us too. But that doesn't go over as well at a rally, I guess.
9
@DALE1102
There in describes the problem with your comment:
"Maybe someone can explain to them that trade is supposed to be mutually beneficial... "
China' current foreign cash reserves is at $3.51 Trillion dollars!
Absolutely nobody with even the most simplistic understanding of trade, would describe the situation with China as being "mutually beneficial!"
4
The guy who is well know for going through bankruptcies, will do the exact same thing for the USA. At least he is consistent.
How many times will it take for the economy to do well under Democrats only to fall apart under Republicans for Americans to wise up? Budget surpluses under Clinton followed up be the Great Recession at the end of the Bush term. A steadily improving economy under Obama, which Trump only was riding his wave, and now, we'll see how bad it gets.
Make America Great Again? I wonder if the Great Depression is what Trump has in mind when he talks about greatness. After all, we're just a few months away form the 90th anniversary of the Great Depression which started on October 24, 1929. The timing is interesting.
5
Our liberal brethren hugely overestimate the economic power of the President. Trump first imposed tariffs on China in July 2018 and a year later the economic sky is falling down around Germany and China. What the media doesn't tell the public is that the RMB actually increased in value by 7 percent from mid-April to the first week in August 2019. During the same period the value of the Euro remained virtually unchanged. This certainly doesn't support the narrative that President Trump has wreaked havoc on the world economy.
It is no secret that China has been a bad actor on the world economic stage for quite some time. Past world leaders were content to let a sleeping giant lie, allowing its economic sins to accumulate and permeate their economies. President Trump absolutely did the right economically calling China out, implementing tariffs and leveling the playing field. With our without Trump, the day of reckoning would arrive at our doorstep. He saw it coming and struck first.
9
So let me get this straight: On the one hand you argue that liberals overestimate the influence President Trump can exert on the economy but then on the other hand you claim that President Trump saved the day by taking action that no former president would. So which is it? Can’t be both.
6
Let's hit China even harder. Now is not the time to back off. They will continue to devalue their currency in an attempt to stave off the punishment of trade sanctions by the U.S., but the burgeoning middle class in China has gotten a taste of consumerism, and they will not stand for the spigot of goods being shut off due to sanctions. The rising up of the populous of Hong Kong is proof positive of that. Short term economic pain will result in long term economic gain if China is finally forced to play by the same rules that the rest of the world must play by. Anything less, and the U.S. economy is just like a sheep being lead to slaughter.
8
Small difference: Chinese politicians do not have to win elections.
1
@paul, Do you think that US economy will just hum along while the rest of the world is hurling towards recession? We're already bailing out the farmers. Who will bail out the American consumer? Here's a hint: nobody. It is at this point that the Trump supports will start to realize that they've been conned. That the Great Con Don will bankrupt our economy the same way he has his past business. Only the US Economy can't really declare bankruptcy and shed all it's debt. Nope, this will land squarely on the American taxpayer. So strap in, it's going to be quite a ride.
If I hear one more oblivious liberal wish for a recession, I am going to start flipping over chairs and tables. I am fairly certain that I feel more strongly about Trump than even most of the left - but my family can't survive another recession. The thought is frankly terrifying.
People saying a recession would be bad, but hey, it would get rid of Trump - you guys may as well tattoo "oblivious liberal elite" on your foreheads. It says to me that the person writing it is so removed from paycheck-to-paycheck normal American life that it barely factors into their political calculus.
9
@France "It says to me that the person writing it is so removed from paycheck-to-paycheck normal American life that it barely factors into their political calculus."
...and most of those people voted for Trump. Sympathy is hard to come by.
5
It is President Trump who is out of touch with the paycheck-to-paycheck struggles of the average American family. He is driving American businesses into bankruptcy in order to “win” his trade war. If you can’t suffer through another recession, then write to Trump. Liberals wish for a recession to punish Trump may be cynical but that’s not what is going to cause a devastating recession. Trump’s trade war will.
5
Agreed - I work in a volatile industry and a recession could destroy me.
Since 2010 and until recently, the US economy had been on a steady trend toward a recession by late 2020. It is only recently that the process accelerated itself. All reasonable minds noticed the inflection point was crossed six month ago. Yet the markets have continued running into the wall. The Feds response came too late. Arguably, Trump's economic strategy has contributed to the early onset of a recession. More importantly, the reasonable question is not whether a recession is coming, but how the US will recover from it. Here will be the biggest price for Trump's lavish economic policies (tax cut, bursting debt, etc).
7
America , You really wonder can Nero burn the Rome.
Trust me he can.
8
Party like it's 1929.
Thanks, GOP/NRA Party.
2020. Bigly.
8
Presidents from both parties sat by for decades as they passively watched blatant manipulation of trade by the Chinese government. I'm glad a president has called them out; I just wish it had not been THIS president, who had done it in this ham-fisted way.
11
@HKGuy, you hit the nail on the head. Yes, China needed to be dealt with, but not with ham-fisted tariffs that have global repercussions, not to mention the hit on our own consumers. Trump was peddling lies when he said that China would be paying us billions. They don't pay a dime to us. It's a consumer tax. But all of us (well almost all of us) already knew that.
2
Job growth has been slower under Trump than Obama, and the deficits have ballooned. Economic growth is not why his supporters voted for him...racism is. The economy continuing to grow along with the deficits would just provide an excuse for this supporters. However if the economy falters, they don’t have that excuse, and will no longer be able to lie to themselves about why they voted for him to begin with.
11
As you ponder the losses in your 401k (and who to vote for). Please remember what our fearless tweeter said; "Trade Wars are easy to win!"
9
@Great Laker, The one thing that is sure, they'll rebound.
While auto sales are usually a good indicator of the direction the economy is heading, for the last couple of years auto industry is facing a secular decline in years. It is not limited to China, Germany, and the US. India is also facing a steep decline in auto sales.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/08/13/business/india-car-sales-slump/index.html
1
It started with sacking Janet Yellen, the trade war and then continuing deporting decent hard working immigrants who help the economy expand. This guy doesn't know what he's doing. We just need to hold on for a year and half. No Russia to help this time bud. Oh yeah and blocking trade with Cuba and Iran didn't help either. Get ready for a deflationary spiral with the Baby Boomers retiring and dying.
5
It is not surprising, Trump is a destroyer. He wants to destroy Chinese and EU competition, nothing new about that. Sanctions are hurting, that is why there are sanctions in the first place. He was after the German economy from the beginning, he will destroy the currency also given a chance.
He is a nihilist if there ever was one.
1
One of the things NYT readers won't be hearing about or commenting on, is the fact that Chinese activities against the United States is being described as a war!
The Chinese Government is actively stealing proprietary secrets from our company's and corporations!
The Chinese Government is actively blocking our company's from their markets!
The Chinese Government is actively harassing our military in the South China Sea!
The Chinese Government is actively harassing our pilots, including pilots from Australia and other countries, with military grade lasers - that have caused injuries!
The Chinese Government is actively harassing our ships, including other countries ships!
The Chinese Government has, through numerous sources, indicated that they will not hesitate to attack our Navy and military!
The Chinese Government is engaged in hostile activities against our country - all of which can easily be confirmed if one takes the time to do basic research... and all the NYT and readers can do is complain about Trump!
7
@The Critic
Yes we do that...…..
Sir,
I’ve read tons of articles in the NYT about all the Chinese activities you listed.
Not all folks are interested in the fact that China is building fake islands (military bases) in the South China Sea. For example.
2
@The Critic
You bring up many valid points!
Despite claims by others, there has not been "tons" of articles from the New York Times!
1
Trump's intellectual deficits and emotional immaturity have caused him to favor bully advisors and bottom feeders whom he thinks can make him look 'tough&strong.' His anxiety about his 'appearance' has dominated all his activity as POTUS.
Now this gross limitation in savvy thinking & strategy is crashing the global economy. His 20th century trade war tactics are simply dumb in a 21st century economy.
The bright side?
2020 may have him look like George W Bush redux !
3
Good job Trump. You are making your hero, Vladimir Putin, very happy, by tanking the rest of the world's economy, including ours. Russia's economy is already in very bad shape apart from energy exports, so they won't decline as much as the rest of the world. As an extra added bonus for Vlady, you are also destroying the relationships with our most important allies in Western Europe.
1
Trump is happy. The others loose. And he does not care if his fellows americans loose too, since his billionaires pals and his family and golf course continue to make money.
And cherry on the pie, the whole wiorld is talking about him.
And he would rather be critizied, insulted, and proven wrong at all times, than be ignored
His ego is a sort of Andromeda Strain feeding on critisism until he destroys us
4
"Trade wars are easy to win"
quote from Donald Trump
3
Trump's myopic win/lose world view leads him to think that cutting everyone else off at the knees makes you taller.
4
Not just China and Germany suffer under Trump's trade chaos. We pay a high price for his economic incompetence.
Are the right wing billionaires who helped grease Trump into office still happy with their investment in election corruption? Will their tax cuts cover their other losses? Trump is indeed chaos and instability personified..in every sense of those words.
118
@Jefflz
Billionaires and others in the .1% don't lose money in recessions. They make money with their hedge investments, rather than equities. That's all.
The big lie that is finally being exposed is that the GOP has always been free-market, pro-economy. The GOP really has always been about low taxes and low regulations for the super-rich. They can care less about the macro economy. Job losses and diminished 401(k)s don't affect them. Trump's inept economic policies (which are really just an extension of his nationalist instincts, playing to his base; He doesn't really care about China either way) are merely exposing the big lie the GOP has told since at least Reagan for what it is.
12
@Jason Vanrell
I agree with your comment in principle with respect to hedge fund profits in a predictably declining or even plunging market (the GW Bush Crash is proof of that phenomenon), but total chaos was not an environment that the right wing billionaires sought. They thought they could control Trump's polices..but Trump cannot even control himself.
10
@Jefflz
"Are the right wing billionaires who helped grease Trump into office"
Are there many of them? Clinton outspent Trump 2:1 at the 2016 election.
1
We need to slow down our growing consumption and polluting the world leading to increased rate of climate change and destruction. It's also creating growing income and social inequality all around, even in most developing countries.
5
For most (i.e., white) Americans, nothing has really changed for the worse since Trump took office, except perhaps for those upper-middle class people in blue states who saw their taxes hiked last year. Otherwise, it's been an entertaining sideshow, an embarrassment at worst. The stock market has been at an all-time high, and unemployment at an all-time low.
All that changes once the economy tanks, and people start losing their jobs, their life-savings, and their homes. Then, at long last, the Trump sideshow will have outrun its entertainment value, as people start yearning for a grownup to be in charge again.
2
That US tariffs would bring Germany into recession shows, to put it mildly, lack of understanding of economics.
Germany has been going downhill for a while, in part to *their* being a bad citizen, which maintained a huge surplus through exports and saving. It was unsustainable, as well as unfair.
China's surplus was in part due to exploiting millions of loopholes that are now slowly closing. Not a recession, then - rebalancing.
5
It's only a matter of time before a recession occurs in the US. The only question is when and how bad will it be? I believe Trump's mismanagement of the economy is a contributing factor, but given the length of the expansion, a recession was/is inevitable.
The only silver lining is if it occurs between now and Nov. 2020 it might convince a few moderate Republicans, and Independents, to vote Democratic. Trump's 'cult like' supporters will just blame the 'libruls'...
1
The current expansion has been living on borrowed time. The average between recessions since 1960 has been 7 years, heavily affected by the double dip of the early 1980s. Has Trump helped, no. However, believing this expansion, which has been pretty paltry and horribly uneven in benefit, could go on forever is ridiculous. Hopefully a recession can chase Trump out of the White House in favor of a reformist Democrat and we'll actually get some reform in labor, banking, securities, and industry regulation.
1
Brexit anyone?
"the German economy is hurtling toward recession."
So why should the UK stay in the EU if the leading participant is heading into a recession?
Also, doesn't Germany now have a greater interest in maintaining its market in the UK? Shouldn't the Germans try a little harder to get the UK to stay in? It probably wouldn't take much.
3
@Mike Edwards
Mike Your understanding of Economy and trade is not superior to Trump.
2
At the risk of mentioning reality, because if Europe goes down, Britain goes down.
See, there are these thingies called, wossname, oh yes, TRADING PARTNERS. And in the world economy that’s been developing since Queen Elizabeth—no, the first one—trade with trading partners is vital to prosperity.
If Europe crashes, in fact, we also crash. No, we cannot make it just by passing stuff back and forth among the countries you are pleased to think of as white.
It’s maddening that so many Americans are so completely clueless about where their jobs, money and stuff comes from, or even what it all costs.
2
This articles analysis is somewhat flawed in my view.
German economy woes are more complex then just the tariff wild man in the white house. They face pressures from all directions within the EU (which overall has been weak for some time now). It's a small miracle that Germany has fought off EU coupling effects for as long as it has.
As for China's industrial base... that is a complete miss by the article authors. China has been rapidly retooling over the last 3-5 years.. moving away from the the generic exporter for western nations for everything from nail clippers to capital equipment. China is now a consumer driven economy and as such.. it is re-scaling and refocusing what it produces and how much it produces. The strong economic performance by Chinese industry, even though at lower total volumes, tells a more accurate picture of China's economy.
Make no mistake about China though.... it's days of year over year double digit GDP growth is largely over. They are no longer an rapidly modernizing economy relying on exports to fuel growth. They have matured now and will see GDP growth better then most modern western economies for some time yet.. but are slowly converging to growth rates in line with other first world nations.
3
So now I really want to know what was said at the Southampton captains of finance Fund raiser Trump attended last Friday. Who is initiating the market movements? Attendees possibly? I find it highly inappropriate that the sitting President attended a meeting with the Chiefs of Wall Street in what might be a conspiracy now. Did you wonder why I called them "The Trump Wall st Administration? Where there any fossil fuels industry figures there? Publishing a roster of known attendees would be highly advised.
4
In the future, can we just reduce the power of the President to one of ceremonial status like the British Queen/King? President this, President that...I am so tired of hearing about the Presidency and the obsessive media coverage of it no matter who holds the office. While we're at it, let's do away with the wholly undemocratic U.S. Senate and Supreme Court.
1
Yes. The Chinese economy and the German economy has been impacted, but the impact on these 2 economy is nothing compared to what will happen to the economies of their trading partners who will also face a decline in sales and income.
Chinese and German love to save. So their consumers will tap into savings, and look at this episode as a warning to those spendthrift youths who have never experienced a recession.
The same cannot be said about American consumers and many of the European Union countries. Many Americans still live paycheck by paycheck, and some are still recovering from the last Great recession. And unless Republicans in the Senate and even those in the House act in concert to directly or indirectly to contain the random policy announcements made by the White House on a daily basis, both Donald Trump, and all Republicans holding national office should be held responsible for precipitating the next global Recession that may have already started.
5
@Elizabeth "Many Americans still live paycheck by paycheck"...Actually, it's "most" Americans.
3
Why is it that every time we get a Republican President, they work hard to tank the economy? And what is wrong with the people who vote for them?
21
@David
Everything wrong literally.
@David Why is it you think the economy was good under Obama?
1
This is good news. Endless growth isn’t possible. Just like limitless consumption isn’t. This race to destroy nature has to end somehow and this might as well be the way.
13
China being hit hard by the trade war is in fact the entire point of the trade war. That essentially means that the leverage Trump has asserted is being entirely effective and will hopefully convince the Chinese to become considerably more amenable to reasonable trade terms, much as Mr. Schumer and Mr. Trump wholeheartedly agree. Otherwise unfair trade terms and the outright theft of our intellectual property will persist. We are in far far better shape than the rest of the world to wait this out, a few technical (chart) gyrations aside.
7
9:30 am Pacific Time: Stock market is down 600 points.
How can we let one person have so much power? We must get him out of office fast.
18
I would like to blame this on tariffs. But the ECB has a history of enacting good monetary policy a day late and a euro short. Germans are still very afraid of hyperinflation. Their belief that austerity is the path to eventual economic growth has been disastrous for the EU and the UK. Germany had a double dip recession in 2012. Italy, Spain, Greece and the UK had trouble overcoming their stagnant growth with budget cuts and restrictive monetary policies. The US did not have a double dip recession and pulled the EU out of their 2012 slump because the FED quickly lowered rates, bought troubled assets, and the government increased spending.
Our worry should be that this austerity contagion spreads and tips the US into a recession. If tariffs are that disastrous for the EU then it is only because the years of austerity left their economy fragile. People forget the EU is the world’s largest economy. Germany has a lot of influence within that economy and their ethos is inflation is bad and they should not have to bail out their neighbors with government spending. Trump has created problems. But austerity and a central bank afraid of a little inflation is the nightmare fuel of the first world.
2
Our stock market is in a Trump propped up bubble. I have pulled all of my money out of the stock market as I am absolutely convinced that there will be a recession and the stock market will crash Trump is holding it off as best as he can by pressuring the Fed but that will last only so long.
2
@LAM Trump's not doing anything to stave off a recession. His protectionist policies and the general uncertainty he creates through his irresponsible tweets are the cause of this global downturn.
The upside: a bad economy might push Trump out of office. He's destroying the environment, our nation spirit and the global economy.
1
This is a republican setup. We will need central stimulus to limit the damage of a recession, and that requires taxes.
Automobiles have enjoyed a decade of unprecedented market growth which everyone knew was not sustainable over the longer term. Electrification is not quite ready for prime time and the installed base of cars is too new and too reliable to justify the rate of replacement that would sustain current growth rates. That Germany's economic output is dominated by the automotive industry simply makes things look worse than they actually are. No doubt Trump policies are attenuating the growth that would otherwise result from current economic conditions. No doubt we are more than due for a recession in historic terms. It's not clear that Trump's trade war is any worse for the economy than post recession austerity during the Obama administration.
3
I am not a brilliant economist but I do know trump does not listen to experts who are much smarter than he. They all agree Tariffs are bad and do not work! Trump's trade policies are going to throw the world into a recession. He is a fanatic but always changes his mind at the last minute when he knows he is wrong. The trouble is it may be too late to do this on many policies. Chaos and whiplash is a hallmark of his reality tv show presidency.
8
Development reaches a point then it slows, when costs overwhelm the possible returns on the development. The idea that alll 7.6 billion can live like 1950s American suburbanites with cars, tract houses, luxury jobs and jet vacations is a self-consuming fantasy.
There are a billion- plus motor vehicles in this world, save for a few countries behind the development curve, the market for cars, trucks and other vehicles is saturated.
Yet the call is for government to 'stimulate' by spending borrowed money to make and sell more cars. When is enough enough?
A cost of the current car surplus is the unraveling of our life support system. How much are our convenience- signalling toys really worth?
Fiscal stimulus likely will fail. It's not working in China, nor in America where car sales have plummeted and overall vehicle sales are stagnant. 21st century economy has become Ponzi speculations in shares, bonds, art, housing and other assets.
Maybe countries can figure out something to do with their time other than making wasteful junk that earns nothing for users, like the cars ... meandering like flying dutchmen from gas station to gas station.
Meanwhile, German stagnation is the consequence of that country's overlordship of European Union finance and its mercantile approach to the EU south. German has exported deflation to the rest of the Eurozone for years and is now stuck with the bill.
5
I see the Trump Wall st Administration strategy; they want Americans to move their money back into our nation from foreign investments they are risking under foreign governments. Trump's trade wars are all about creating uncertainty which has had the effect of bringing money back here as shown today with some moving money from stocks into Treasury Bills. It all appears to be a calculated policy by the Administration. Manufacturing wasn't returning so now the investments will. Additionally, following the Tariffs taxes on consumers, those consumers may be cashing out some investments to maintain the cash reserves to pay for the Tariff taxes which ultimately go to the Treasury. Money comes back home, the Treasury swells, and the national economy will enrich the rich, and hopefully perpetuate our economy independent of foreign dangers. I can only hope clashes are averted in this biggest of gambles.
2
This is not all bad.
Germany's population is growing very slowly, so a recession is not as painful as for a quickly growing country. Germany also can do with more public investment. Back in February, Bloomberg reported that Germany's municipalities see a combined need of 159 billion EUR in spending. Germany also has very low debt to GDP ratio compared to the EU, so fiscal expansion is a good option.
China's economy is 6x to 10x the size it was 17 years ago, so the same growth rate is just not feasible any way. Also China still has many ways to liberalize its economy. Now is a time aim for more equal development across different regions. A slower growth rate focused on the interior would still benefit more people than a faster grown concentrated on the coast, given the different baseline.
Back here in the US, lower asset prices could help the millenial and later generations. There's not much to gain if a starter home cost $500,000 (here in LA) and a 401(k) entering the market at DJIA 26,000. A more sane level would be $300,000 and 15,000. Assuming unemployment is kept in check by an aging population and average people aren't too expose to high-end housing and stocks, this is a much needed cross-generation (and cross-socioeconomic) wealth transfer.
4
Yep. The recession is well on its way and it will be significantly worse than last time.
Why? Because we didn't learn a darn thing the last time and now our economy is taking a further beating from the nonsensical, egregious economic policies of the Trump administration.
Just imagine how hard this recession is going to hit the millions of Americans who never fully recovered from 10 years ago?
This administration is pulling down everything of value in this nation...including our values.
We should take the example of the brave people of Hong Kong and be out in the streets trying to protect our freedoms and our way our life.
Maybe when the economy tanks we will step out of illusion into reality.
3
No president should be able to manipulate the U.S. and global economy to this extent.
Especially one like Trump who knows nothing about world economics and could care less.
For god's sake, he still swears that China is paying the tariff's that American consumers actually pay.
9
Our gift to the world—an economic time bomb from our Apprentice president. Another Putin victory?
5
Nothing a good war won’t cure. Putin laughs.
2
Tell me again what brought down the Roman Empire,
2
Trump breaks China, and Germany.
MAGA!
3
I'm tired of winning ........
1
Trumpenomics.
3
Immigrants will be blamed.
2
Infantile Trump gleefully toying with global economic dynamite — as idiotic and dangerous as it gets.
3
This has been building since long before the President. The EU in general, led by Germany, consistently focused on austerity as way to recover from the recession. This was included in loan covenants for Greece, Spain and other EU countries that required financial bailouts.
The coming recession is simply the result of not priming the economy with government spending. As for China, they are long overdue for a recession. The tariffs exposed China's predatory trade practices and caused them to have to adjust their economy to the realities of real market capitalism.
3
Trade wars and tariffs are a tax on goods and services which essentially dampens aggregate demand.
Anyone who doesn't understand the Trump trade wars are a major contributing factor to the downward spiraling world economies hasn't been paying attention.
4
The world economy is sliding toward a recession because of Trump's reckless desire to make Xi Jinping say monkey and admit that Trump is the biggest bully on the playground. It's worth keeping in mind that our president is not exactly an economic whiz-kid: many of his multimillion-dollar projects as a private citizen declared bankruptcy, and over and over again, Trump senior ultimately bailed out his son with millions of dollars. Now Trump holds the economic stability of the world in his hands, and if he guesses wrong, it will be all of us who pay--for many years ahead.
3
So sad for both. EU paymaster will affect all, save Britain, and China's self-serving intransigence, happy Vietnam et al., save Hong Kong.
1
Wait I thought China was winning the trade war and tariffs were completely ineffective??? Sad that so many of the pundits are still fighting this. Hopefully someone puts together a huge montage of all the idiots (or sellouts?) that said we had to keep letting everyone rip us off because we would lose a trade war after this is over so they can be blacklisted from the media.
3
You think this means we’re winning?
Oh, brother.
5
Sorry Jack : "The Trade War is only part of it" -
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/upshot/global-economic-trouble-is-brewing-and-the-trade-war-is-only-part-of-it.html
The troubles are much deeper. The Central Banks printed a deluge of money sloshing around - that is the real problem
1
It is all going to blow up in Trump's face. Too bad the rest of us and our USA will suffer wounds from the shrapnel.
2
Make no mistake about it, Trump's will blame the ensuing U.S. recession on Mexicans and – you guessed it – Obama.
5
"Trade wars are good and easy to win." Maybe HE will win, since he is only looking out for him, but the rest of us lose. And that is his whole policy in a nutshell for any field that demands policy: If I win, it's good. Too bad for the rest of you suckers.
5
It’s been a little over 10 years since George W. Bush’s policies created the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression.
And now we find ourselves on the verge of Donald Trump’s “hold my beer” moment.
Republicans have led us down this path repeatedly, and the lesson is never learned.
It looks like those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
8
It is noon, and the Dow is down a mere 650 or so.
Hey, the day is not over. We could set a record for a one day loss.
3
Here is what is the most unfortunate (and likely) result of this news: Trump's fervent supporters will take this de-stabilization of two of our major trade partners as evidence of a job well done by their president. That is the goal, is it not? America first, at the expense of all others? The problem with this rhetoric is that it relies on zero knowledge of how economics work in a global economy. If China and Germany topple, others (and the U.S.) will follow. Autocratic regimes, such as Russia, are the only possible beneficiary.
4
@Rita
Most of Trump's followers do not read the NY Times or similar media outlets.
Unless FOX makes this a story, they won't even notice.
Here is what Fox said online:
Quote:
U.S. stocks Opens a New Window. plunged on Wednesday as a known predictor of a forthcoming recession Opens a New Window. has entered the mix. At one point, the Dow was down more than 600 points.
Investors are also concerned about weakening economic data in Europe and Asia.
...
The Associated Press contributed to this article
End quote
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-aug-14-2019
1
@Rita A frighteningly accurate analysis. Yes, the world (and the American) economy will collapse into a heap of rubble, but that's ok for Trump as long as he can stand on top of the heap as the "winner." We have elected an ill-informed and possibly mentally ill (read the account of his deranged hour-long speech on Monday at a Pennsylvania chemical company building site) narcissist as our president, and we shall pay for that error.
The one man wrecking machine, Trump, is sending into motion a world wide recession. He was bent on undoing all the accomplishments of President Obama, and has been true to his word. He has undone most everything he did, and all that is left is a recession; Trump is going to be a success by creating one.
It is going to be hard to have 3% growth to cover the tax cuts, if you are in a recession or there is no one to trade with.
The markets, as I write this, are in free fall, Down was down over 600 points.
Nice work Mr. president. What do you do for an encore? Another tax cut for the 1%, and corporations, to stimulate the economy? And, hope that too trickles down? I am still waiting for my trickle.
313
@Nick Metrowsky: don't overestimate the impact this so-called trade war has on anybody except the us. Yes it hit China a little and yes car sales have gone down. But in the end neither economy cares. European states have learned, that the us is not a reliable trade partner because of the overwhelming power the potus has on the us policies. No state which can switch from a free democratic society to a raging divide between racists and other patriots can be stable in the long run. I know. German history proves it to the t.
Fact of the matter is, articles like this one show the general inward focus of the majority discussions in the us and if no change in perspective happens, will mark the point where the us will descend into a second row state on the global theater.
Tldr it's not a worldwide recession.its the death of us economy as a major player. Everyone loses, but the others will recovet
14
In two days, he’ll announce good news and the market will instantly recover.
Happens repeatedly in a predicable pattern
5
@Fourteen14
This time I have to disagree. Trump, by his own policies, words and actions has done great harm to the US and world economies. He has created uncertainty; something that scares investors, manufacturers, and consumers. Trump has created an element of fear. He has also, by flip flopping, is fueling this uncertainty.
Yes, no one man can upset an economy, but Trump has been going out of his way to do so.
5
It is amazing how one incompetent, ignorant, self-absorbed individual that was 'elected' by less than 100,000 votes in three states can, with a tweet or two, crash the world's economy. No one person should have that kind of power because, we we know, "Power corrupts and absolute poser corrupts absolutely". All tariffs should have to pass through Congress before they can be instigated. Congress has the 'power of the purse'. If this doesn't involve the purse, the nothing does.
249
@BigFootMN Trump's tariffs bypass Congressional and independent agency consideration by the use of a seldom-used provision of our trade law (Section 232) designed to allow additional tariffs when imports are judged a threat to national security. This has always been known as the H-bomb of trade policy because there is no requirement to demonstrate that imports have injured U.S. industry, a decision ordinarily left to an independent regulatory agency for all other trade actions. This is reckless stuff. Trump is like a kid playing with matches when it comes to trade.
16
@BigFootMN Great comment. The President has way too much power, especially this one! And especially when they are as uninformed, ignorant, functionally illiterate, and emotionally unfit in temperament and personality. Congress needs to have more checks and balances. We have seen too much questionable behavior from this White House from; Russian meddling, abuse of power, his team indicted, sentenced and jailed. The list goes on! Remove now! Vote Blue 2020...before it is too late.
7
@BigFootMN Don't forget the Bernie-bros who put Trump in power to begin with.
3
It's ludicrous that they blame the US.
It appears Germany can't get its economic act together -- excessive dependence on heavy industry (esp. automotive industry which is seeing negative growth), negative interest rates, ridiculous energy policies that have made electric power too expensive for businesses, a dithering/listless government that is incapable of policymaking in the past couple of years, a massive (relative to population) immigration of unskilled workers -- and yet it's turning around blaming others.
Give it a more serious analysis, please. Or give it a break.
4
Putin wants our economies to fall apart? Trump is so busy insider trading he doesn’t care. Does Trump even realize what’s going on? I’m sure his family and Fox News will tell him what is what.
3
The only way to stop the madness that is Donald Trump - is to vote him out of office.
Boycott All Republicans. A no vote to a Republican is a no vote to Trump. Make your message heard in the only way Republicans will hear it.
13
As Alexander Pope said in referring to Donald Trump, "Where ignorance is bliss 'tis folly to be wise."
3
"Germany’s economic performance was the worst of any eurozone country during the second quarter, separate data from the European Union statistics agency indicated.'
This is false. The data for the EU-28 are, 2nd Quarter change relative to Q 1
Germany -0.1%
Sweden -0.1%
UK -02.%
The winners were
Poland +0.8%
Hungary +1.1 %
Low wage countries gained, high wage countries fell behind
Is this accidental ?
Read the Automotive News
"VW confirms Passat production will move to Skoda plant"
Automotive News 11/22/2018
The Skoda factory is located in the Czech Republic
==============================================
https://europe.autonews.com/article/20181122/ANE/181129924/vw-confirms-passat-production-will-move-to-skoda-plant
3
One thing is certain; Trump will blame it all on Obama.
5
@William Mutterperl C. The other thing that will be certain is that Trump will be right. China played Obama for a hapless chump for two terms. Now Trump has to clean up the mess left behind. I say this as someone who loathes Trump.
You know what else falls off a cliff in a recession? Modern Monetary Theory, which depends on revenue outpacing debt service. That won’t fly into a recessionary headwind.
2
German trade tensions causing their recession? hardly
Trump is now trying to bankrupt the US and the World while congress fiddles around on another break at taxpayers' expense. Who, if anyone, is going to stop this soft-handed man baby.
5
So basically Trump is ruining the Obama economy. That was predictable.
13
@Mike
Triump has attempted to ruin anything that President Obama accomplished.
Trump has been tearing up all the international agreements that President Obama worked to put in place.
There is no reason to think that the economy will be any different, although Trump will mess that up because he has no business sense, as his record shows. His "great strength" is as a huckster.
2
Thus far it was win win for china. They are great in stealing intellectual assets but low in innovation, thus America will prevail. for decades they have stolen our technology and intellectual properties. Their stealth fighter had been designed based on stolen Americas blue prints. Their cell phone, Cars, computers,as well as Biothech advances have all been designed along stolen American assets. This must be stopped and the trade war is the beginning of teaching them a lesson. without stealing future American innovation, they are doomed and will leg behind. America has to stand against the Chinese pirates.
3
The bright side of this is that a recession here, if it comes, will decrease the likelihood Trump will win next year.
Also, recessions generally slow down greenhouse gas emissions. At least the last one did.
4
Germany and China are suffering financially, due to Trump's Trade War.
Guess who's really happy about weakening Germany and China?
Putin.
11
Trade wars are a lose lose proposition every time. Period!
Econ 101.
6
The Chinese & Germans agree/that tariffs will win no Grand Prix/They don't like the slam/from old Uncle Sam/which makes of their cash filigree.
It is a World Economy. Trump does not understand that destroying others will also destroy us.
5
Interesting! When you read the German Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, short FAZ (faz.net), the head article of today's edition is: German companies make more business in the USA and China.
3
So our fearless leader and his feckless trade wars have sent markets on a deep dive and may yet trigger a global recession, the effects of which would be compounded by deficit run-ups from the Trump tax cut.
But hey, he's "tough." He's a "man's man" who won't let 'merka get pushed around, except to trigger market forces incomprehensible to his feeble mind to push us off a fiscal cliff.
MAGA?
4
This was totally predictable.
Trump, you own this !!! Don't try to deflect it on the Fed or anywhere else. This is of your doing. What happened to 'trade wars are easy to win', and 'that we would be tired of winning'? We handed the reined to an incompetent novice and now are paying the price.
This is where we find out that Trump is a fair weather president and has no idea how to handle a crisis.
14
The coming global recession can be directly traced to the economic policies of the Trump administration, most particularly his totally uncalled for trade war. There is ample evidence Trump didn't have a clue that tariffs were in fact a tax on American consumers and would contribute to a global recession which was already overdue.
8
Hard to feel sorry for Germany (or China). Maybe if Germany spent 2% of GDP (as agree to by NATO members back as far as 2007) on defense instead of 1.4%, GDP would be positive.
The US auto world for VW, BMW and Mercedes is interesting. BMW's of US sales, production, import and export (SUVs) is in balance while Mercedes is 75% (that is make 75% of what is sold).
For VW's brands (VW, Audi and Porsche) the number is 15% (that is make 15% of what is sold. Time for VW to make a big investment in US production. Volvo recently opened a US plant so no excuses.
@Jim
Are you really calling on Germany to fight more wars to get out of an economic slump?! Because that worked out real well last time.
Anyway, the 2% target is meant to allow the US to make a corresponding reduction in military spending. It wouldnt do anything for the world economy but shift where the resources are spent.
5
I expect the trade war has some impact, but to blame it all on the trade war is, in my opinion, misplaced. China's population who can afford German imports eventually reaches saturation and the growth curve flattens. U.S. consumers also have everything they need and want which results in a lower demand for Chinese goods and services. And, as we see, some degree of recession is just around the corner, further dampening demand. We should not give Trump credit for the boom and he should only bear partial blame for the recession.
2
@Tom
If saturation was the issue in China, the economists would have said that. Its not the issue.
The trade war is entirely Trump's creation. Its a bad policy and only tipping us sooner into a recession.
@Tom any president that inherits a growing economy and takes credit for much of what was in the works already, gives tax cuts to the top, gives handouts to industry while raping the environment,gives handouts to farmers (primarily big farms) etc to compensate for poorly thought out tariffs.... basically everything has been done to increase wealth at the top with zero long term plans for anything else. ZERO. His gift to the future generations is the ever increasing record deficit. In addition the Federal rate is so low that Trump has helped steer it to the point that it has no tools left in their ability to make significant changes in stronger down turns.
I think this has earned him more than partial credit. The Senate backing him with disregard for the country can take a little credit also. Of course Trump will not take ownership of any failure - it's his pattern.
2
Several things are put into question under a weaker Germany. What will this do to the leverage the EU has had over Britain under the Brexit negotiations? Will this mean the EU change its stance on the Irish backstop and give more favorable terms to Britain? What does a recession of the largest economy in Europe mean for the stability of the continent as a whole and the sustainability of the most powerful progressive government in the world (e.i. the EU)?
Also, I wonder what the status of corporate debt is in Germany, are corporations as highly leverage there as they are here in the US? If so, could this recession lead to a new financial crisis?
Any chance we could get some NYT commentary on these crucial questions?
Not to mention that the United States is getting very little if any benefit from Trump’s seat of the pants trade war. Putin and Russia seem to be the biggest winners in Trump’s trade war.
It feels to me that the Constitution, the Rule of a Law, Congress and common sense and decency have become obsolete during the McConnell and Trump’s assault on America and beyond.
9
The post WWII world economic model so cherished here did not contemplate the gigantic Chinese economy or the EU trading block. The reality is those two economies are swallowing us and adjustments are needed together with fairer trade rules and protection of intellectual property by China. In the scheme of nearly 45 trillion in combined economies Trumps few hundred billion in tariffs amount to fine adjustment.
4
@Mkm
EU, China and US are roughly equal to each other economically. They are not swallowing each other. Post-WWII rules were favorable to US when everyone else was much smaller and the second world isolated. Now its a fair (harder) fight.
The trade war just puts the brakes on international trade. It isnt clear if it contributes to a transformation toward a better trade and growth environment down the line. TPP would have been a better move, but Trump realized it too late.
2
This sounds like a number of "just so" arguments. No where in this article do a I see any evidence to support the claims that Trump's trade war is responsible. For example, where is the evidence that trade threats are discouraging Chinese consumers from buying big ticket goods?
1
@Todd Johnson
Recessions decrease demand for all nearly all consumer items.
Econ 101
9
I suspect the Democrats will have to come in again to straighten out the mess the Republicans have made of the global economy. We
25
Donald Trump has a history of bailing on people who have worked with him and supported him.
As the recession hits the U.S. next year, I look for Trump to bail on the GOP late in the game when he sees he has no chance.
He'll turn on them and the blame he's had for Democrats will be directed toward his own party.
He'll also leave them with no time and little choice but to make Pence the candidate at the last minute.
Donald takes care of Donald and loyalty to party means nothing.
8
@Baba
Trump has never been a part of the GOP--missed the RNC Politburo hate-Trump news flash in 2016?
I suppose that there’s some poetic justice in the timing of the oncoming recession, just in time for the 2020 election. The growth that the Obama administration had set in motion was not spectacular but it was steady for the last decade. Along came Trump, who claims that it was he that has created the best economy EVER, and whose main ambition is to undo anything and everything achieved by his predecessor.
With his tariffs and tax policies, if we can call them “policies”, he will soon be able to boast that he has succeeded in destroying the Obama Economy and ending the unbroken string of 120 months of slow but steady growth, just in time for the 2020 election.
9
No Candidate from Democrat or Republican side wants to talk about white elephant in the room, Military-Industrial Complex.
$180 Billion Federal Education Budget
vs.
300+ Overseas Military Bases in 150/192 Countries. True Military Budget $1.22 Trillion/year($1220 Billions).
It is time we stop being policeman of the world.
Russia Has 5 Bases outside Russia; China 1; India 2.
The US has 20 aircraft careers, Russia 1, China 1, India 2.
The US Military is responsible for thousands of innocence deaths(Collateral Damage), every year.
Even if we spend half of the Military money home, this country will eliminate its budget deficit and free college tuition to all. WHO DOES NOT WANT TO DO THAT?
58
@Aditi .. You just have to convince the Republicans .. good luck w/ that ..
1
@Aditi
I don't want to do that. I paid for my children's college education. I don't want to pay for yours too.
1
@Aditi
China has a lot more bases outside of China than 1.
But they’re an imperial power. So when they slap a military base down on an island that isn’t China, they hoist the red flag and dare someone to come try to take it down.
Reading an article like this, I would naturally expect to see some description of data that demonstrates the degree to which the slowing economies of Germany and China can be attributed to the tariffs and the "trade war" in general, as opposed to the myriad of other factors that contribute to changes in the health of an economy. I found no such information. How is an educated reader supposed to draw any conclusions?
12
@cd Re-read the article carefully.
Germany's economy is shrinking slightly, and will soon be in technical recession.
China's economy is growing three times faster than the US economy, although its rate of growth is slowing compared with when it was six or ten times the US rate.
There are different situations.
Their causes may be related, but it is a mistake to describe Germany's stumble and then say, "China too."
The CIA World Factbook lists the Chinese economy as $23 trillion in purchasing power parity, though half that at the official exchange rate. The trade deficit with the US is $350 billion, and thus 1/66 part of its total economy. It may eventually be reduced, but not eliminated, but it hasn't been yet.
How much can we really think this will impact China's total economic activity?
US trade policy with China was foolish, and in fact the whole globalization concept was self destructive. However, we need to be realistic here. Nothing we could do today has the prospect of serious harm to the total Chinese economy. It has outgrown that.
5
Who cares. The economies of Western Europe (the model for Democrats) have been stuck at or near zero growth for a decade.
+01.% growth or -0.1% growth is all in the noise of zero.
The US economy is hitched on the American consumer (75%), government spending (20%) and exports (5%).
Even if global exports would fall by 25% (an unthinkable amount), that is only a 1% hit to the US economy.
Trump is right. We can easily win a trade skirmish.
Lack of critical thinking to imply that a slow down in Germany from +01.% to -0.1% mean anything to the US economy. It doesn't.
The fact that US wages are growing at 3.2%/year is what really matters for our economy.
5
@Baron95 .. Any strategy build on greed will fail BIG time ..
1
Which “trade skirmish,” would that be, exactly? One with Liechtenstein?
Thing is, we’re IN several “trade skirmishes.” Looked at the Dow today?
1
Germany should just say enough already. First, say thanks for the military bases, but, you are correct, Mr. Trump, we don't deserve the free protection so please, we insist, go. Having finally conquered Europe via the Euro, Germany can then pursue constructive relations with its historic backwater, Russia; only this time without the archaic need for military conquest. Safe under the Russian nuclear umbrella, it may finally say to Israel, enough, too. Also they can pursue relations with that other pragmatist power, China, as well as Iran, Japan, the Koreas and anyone else interested in this new, post regime change order.
3
I’m sure I am speaking for millions of my fellow Americans when I say thank you Donald Trump and the Republican Party for ruining my retirement.
We will remember in November 2020.
98
@Ignatz Farquad
The market is still up huge compared with the date when DT took office.
I hope you are planning on returning that dirty money.
Trump has taken his orders from Putin. Theory being that German slowdown will prompt EU to reopen Brexit.
4
The fall in Germany's car sales couldn't have anything to do with the fact that they have lost a tremendous amount of goodwill and revenue after being caught lying about emissions tests, could it?
7
@Damoin it should right? But I hardly doubt it, the slow down in China is the biggest influence. The Chinese Market works different, where it's rather important to flaunt your wealth. Also the German Government has kept this ridiculous idea to not make any dept. Which they achieved mostly by giving up and selling a lot of their assets.
Trump, stable genius! Stable genius! Stable genius! Baaa, baaa, baaa.
20
Three cheers for Trump and his cronies. Way to go guys. Drag the whole world down. Next thing on the agenda is to drag us into a major war.
30
Donald's bankruptcy tour now goes worldwide.
46
Yes, trade policy will impact the global economy... but lets be careful with attribution since other things are happening:
1) Shift to purchasing from Chinese domestic automakers
2) Shift to electric cars in China (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/09/business/china-hastens-the-world-toward-an-electric-car-future.html)
3) Shift to ride sharing services from car ownership slowing purchases
Regardless of trade, the above will be a major challenge to German automakers (and other automakers).
4
Headline in Nov 2020 - Trump loses election by 25 million votes after he and republican party cause global recession....
33
@Markymark,
...yet, still wins Electoral College and remains POTUS.
1
Chinese dumping of cheap manufactured junk is much like having multiple bleeding wounds when pressure is added to one it just sprouts from another.
When Trump slows our import of cheap trashy goods they have to go to the next leading economy, Germany.
Xi is like a monster that must be destroyed before it is too late and Biden gives away the farm.
6
@Charlie that is not at all how hemorrhage works.
Aren't we in an interesting world. The US setup the new world order after WW II. Regarding Europe: Starting with the Marshall Plan the US gave away unbalanced trade agreements to help Europe grow. It was a great deal for Europe and helped them pay for their social programs. On top of that Europe did not even want to pay 2% of their GDP for military security. Regarding China: Since Nixon, the US embraced and nurtured China. We allowed unbalanced trade, since China claimed they were a developing nation. All along we hoped that China would move from being autocratic (i.e., even after Tiananmen Square) to being somewhat of a democracy. Now that Mr. XI has arrived he has revealed the real Chinese strategy. Militarize and claim the totality of the South China Sea, steal as much technology as they can from the Western World (i.e., why spend money and time developing their own technology) and get the West to pay for their Belt and Roads initiatives by selling the world cheap goods, This way they can be a worldwide hegemonic power and setup their version of a world order. I read these media narratives that the US is putting the world economy into a recession. I think there are bigger issues out there that the world needs to be concerned with rather than the price of toys for Christmas.
10
In other words, our involvement in Europe brought peace and enormous prosperity for Europe and for this country, at the relatively-small price of the Marshall Plan. This was a Very Bad Thing. And in Asia, our current refusal to live up to our obligations or lift a finger to help is allowing China to expand mostly unchecked, and this is a Very Bad Thing.
Okay, sure.
4
@Rod And if you think the USA will do well despite Trump's trade discord, you should study Economics 101.
Tariff Man to the rescue
The reckoning has come for the mercantilists of the world. It's no longer okay to play Industrial Age strategies. Trade in the Information Age means mutual exchange and respect for intellectual property. Germany building autos in the US so they can pay non-union workers here less than they pay Union workers at home is a very curious state of affairs.
5
@Charles Becker, in Tennessee, the republican-brainwashed auto workers voted against a union. Their foreign employer was open to one.
With Boris Johnson in the wings, really, what could go wrong?
24
Having bankrupted all his businesses Trump is doing the exact same for the global economy. What else could come from turning America into an ignorant bully on the world stage. Did anyone think this would not happen. Oh yeah, the poor, misguided souls that voted for him. And when his trade war inevitably causes recession in the U. S. the “stable genius” will blame Obama along with Fox News and his supporters.
64
Germany? What will happen now to the rest of Europe and Great Britain as it continues a quest called Brexit? This is indeed ominous. We have been here before. It started under the Bush administration and, again, in the United States. It was called the Great Recession. Now under another Republican president we watch in slow motion the dominoes fall. And like dominoes, an ignorant showman, consumed by his own lust for self-glorification and power, perceives the world as a game. Fool that he is, Trump begins a trade war while dismissing policies like the TPP to rein in China. He looks reason in the eye and then pokes his stubby finger into it. Stay tuned.
338
@Kathy Lollock Germany is hit harder because its economy heavily relies on exportation to both China and USA. The rest of European economies are largely turned inward making them more resiliant to the ongoing trade war.
However, said diagnostic wont protect Europe from the annouced crisis.
5
@Kathy Lollock: Lady of the Wine Country: This was all visible the day that Donald Trump glided down his gilded escalator in Trump Tower. Like the serpent in the garden, he said “Take a bite and you’ll be like me!” America (those who bothered to vote, anyway) took him up on the dare. Now, I ask, was that apple poisoned? As you closed, “stay tuned.” This is only going to get worse.
5
@Kathy Lollock
Trump is messing with the economy in negative ways—but make no mistake: the Great Recession began with the deregulation under the New Democrats and Bill Clinton, and was continued by Bush. People like Trump get elected because the New Democrats (and Obama was one of them), help the billionaire class willingly, and give scraps to the rest begrudgingly.
"China is the world’s largest exporter of goods and services, just ahead of the United States, and Germany is No. 3. Both have been countries hit directly by President Trump’s tariffs, and more broadly by the disruption to the global economy that the trade conflict has caused."
If we are the number 2 exporter, it is logical to think that our exports will also be diminished by reciprocal (a word that Donnie LOVES!) trade sanctions.
Our reality tv potus does not have a clue. He thinks that when we spend money for foreign made goods, we are getting ripped off. Not necessarily.
I have a trade deficit with the doctor, the pharmacist, the supermarket, the gas station, the utility company, and quite a few more vendors. I buy stuff from them, but I sell them nothing.
Should I stop buying medical services and pharmaceuticals, food, gas and electricity? That would get my deficit with each of those vendors to ZERO. How smart is that idea?
As long as I make enough money (or have enough reserves) to pay my bills, those deficits are of no consequence. I need what those people are selling. Just don't buy what you do not need, and/or what you cannot afford. Pretty simple.
On the other hand, my wife and I sold a second home a few months ago, and we have parked the cash in federally insured cash-equivalent vehicles. We can pay our bills for the forseeable next couple of years.
Hint: In the 1930s, when most people could not rub two nickels together, cash was king.
8
Further comment:
If you do not know what the term "deflationary depression" means, look it up.
We now have quite low inflation. Inflation comes about when too much money is chasing too few goods. It can happen when necessities become scarce, for example. People respond by buying things "in advance" because those things will just cost more tomorrow. They also exchange their paper money for assets that they think will go up in "value" measured in cash money, which is equivalent to having the cash money go down in value relative to assets.
On the other hand, when people have very little cash money, and they do not think they will come into a lot more money soon, they hoard their cash. That pushes priced down. If demand is low enough that goods are in surplus, people decide that they can get a "better deal" by waiting until tomorrow to buy. That is the typical response in a deflationary depression. Nobody wants to buy anything that they do not need in the immediate future.
Which way do you think we are going?
How many consumers are just "tapped out" and are having a hard time paying their bills (and accumulated debt) now?
Oh, wait, .. trickle down will save us!
If you believe that, tell me how many meals a billionaire eats in a day, how many changes of clothing one wears in a day, and how many cars one drives in a day.
4
When economies falter around the globe, migration takes place. The end result will be more upheaval in places where "natives" are fearful of newcomers. Trump will blame Germany's economic downturn on accepting refugees and not his disastrous trade war. The man will spin like a top and his followers will lap it up.
29
@Sue Salvesen .. or to sum it up .. "Fascists love ignorant Democracies " ..
2
A trade war between the world’s two largest economies has economic ripples all over the globe.Too many people are looking at the trees and not at the forest.The uncertainty and chaos which Trump has initiated will spread like a malignancy and there will be adverse effects, particularly for us.Trump’s reckless “tweets” will hasten a worldwide recession!I can’t prove it, but get back to me in a year!
16
Germany may sneeze, but the world will catch pneumonia. There is a inherent ability to rebound, as well as built up riches in infrastructure we can all be envious. I'll grant you could worry about the nationalists, but no more than in other countries, like the USA, for instance.
3
Has there ever been a situation where the president of the United States has done more to bring about an economic slowdown throughout the world? If so, I am not aware of it.
Mr. Trump's supporters may now revel in what a great destructive business genius he is. Unfortunately, that is quite the opposite of what they expected.
43
Since Germany has been economically one of the strongest countries in Europe, what does this mean for the rest of Europe?
13
China has seen huge growth over 30 years. The money of China has been so manipulated by their government to protect the Chinese citizens a logical deduction would be fear to purchase "big ticket" items if they actually see a strong recession as possible.
5
A majority of the commenters are quick to jump on Trump. Let's get real. I'm no Trump supporter. The recovery from 2008 is very long of tooth. Tariffs, trade and monetary wars pushed by Trump are going to make recession more likely and probably deeper. We are in a unique time and we have a fool steering ship, but he didn't put us here and now.
12
@Charles said "We are in a unique time and we have a fool steering ship, but he didn't put us here and now."
Our reality tv potus has no idea what he is doing, never stays on the same tack for very long (he likes to be "unpredictable"), and reacts badly to any criticism.
What could possibly go wrong?
26
Trump had single handedly, and with intense self centered praise. pushed two trillion dollars of debt and uncertainty on the US and the world
he brags about what he thinks is good, he takes the blame when it's not
7
@Charles
But he has certainly done everything possible to destabilize world markets, confidence and business long term planning.
10
Germany has benefited greatly from the Euro. Left on its own the old D-Mark would have priced it out of many export markets and reduced its competitiveness. Yet it has done little in return: Running a budget surplus has hurt the EU economy; failure to do its share for the common defense; unilaterally opening the floodgates to immigrants has destabilized politics throughout Europe.
It is high time Germany meet its responsibility and initiate a large productivity enhancing infrastructure investment program to stimulate demand and economic growth across the region.
17
@van schayk Anti-migrant attitude which is no way near the cause of the political unrest in Europe but many people see that way will destabilize the economy further people will blame migrants and vote for far-right leaders who have nothing to offer except talking shouting anti-migrant rhetoric and shameless self-promotion.
1
So we are hurting China badly enough with the Tariffs to slow down their purchase of German Luxury Cars and that is a bad thing? Ok, got it.
14
@GregP Sending the global economy into recession the American economy to follow is a good thing? Ok, got it.
12
My car is 18 years old. But I am not planning on buying a new one anytime soon. I don't want to buy a gas fuelled engine when they may be obsolete in 10 years. I will wait for electric cars to improve, come down in price. And when they build more electric charging stations. I suspect I'm not alone.
56
@Lorne Berkovitz
Great electric cars (Model 3, Kona/Niro/Soul, Bolt, I-Pace, etc.) are already here.
The prices can come down still, but the driving experience and home charging make up for that. Comparing ICE to EV isn't always apples to apples.
Infrastructure definitely needs to be improved for those without home charging options, but you may be surprised to see how many public chargers are already in your area. Plugshare is a great resource for finding chargers.
4
@Lorne Berkovitz - gas engines will hardly be obsolete in 10 years. Electrics will be increasingly common, but gas will be around for another generation, at least. And the fact that you feel the need to cite the age of your car hints that you a moralizing to the rest of us for being frivolous. I buy cars probably every 3-4 years because I feel like it. Something new comes out that I like better. Who cares? It's just a car and not that consequential or important.
8
@Lorne Berkovitz
Indeed you are not alone. As an apartment dweller, full electric is not likely for me so I'd be planning to go the hybrid route and I want to get more recent technology (particularly battery!) when it's time to get a new car. My car is 14 years old and I am hoping for *at least* two more years out of it.
2
This ominous economic report is another sharp reminder, like the rise of hateful white supremacist violence, that Trumpism in all of its deeply injurious manifestations has dire consequences of both a global and national nature. Our Fake President is a “clear and present danger” here in America and throughout the world. Trump MUST be removed from office, either through the ballot box or by Congress. Time is decidedly not on our side!
48
@John Grillo - calling Trump a "fake president" is asinine, considering that he was duly elected. Argue against his policies, fine. But language like this just marginalizes you.
4
@DRS,
Agree. After the next Great Depression, Trump will displace Harding as the worst POTUS ever. Until then, we and the rest of the world will roll our eyes, throw both hands in the air and suffer.
2
This complete pretender is a Fake President par excellence : literally, by virtue of Republican gerrymandering, voter suppression, and other corrupt ballot subterfuge, in addition to widespread and systemic Russian criminal electoral activities, all of which were decisive in his favorable Electoral College, not popular vote, results achieved with a paltry 70,000 vote margin; figuratively, in that no previous President in our country’s history has ever acted in such an unpresidential manner, fully revealing himself to be a bigot, racist, serial lier, misogynist, monetizing opportunist, and entirely contemptuous of pre-existing traditions, norms, and values. Still not a Fake President?
But nobody thinks the lying German emissions cheaters had anything to do with lost sales. I have owned VWs and Benzes in the past but I bought Volvo’s this time.
21
@Rich Murphy - shame. Volvo is owned by the Chinese. The profits from your purchase, rather than going to a western democracy, are going to help intern muslims in China and oppress the people with vast police state.
10
do you think it is still affecting the Chinese market, it it ever did ?
1
@Rich Murphy
Actually, German auto sales in the US are up. Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota have seen decreases. As the article states, the problem is with sales in China. Many German cars are built in the US (the largest BMW plant in the world is in South Carolina. Finally, Volvo is now owned by the Chinese.
6
Trump will be hung on his own petard. His foolish, impulsive, unthoughtful decision will shower the US with bad outcomes at an accelerating rate in the final year of his reign.
There is no way that Trump can be reelected if the US starts to slide into recession, or crashes into a 2008 style great recession. Watch for him to do anything to avoid this fate, including lifting all tariffs on China.
Because he will open to prosecution for a myriad of crimes starting with Obstruction of Justice the day he is escorted out of the WH, and he will do whatever it takes to avoid this.
This canary in the coal mine article is sure to get his attention.
Expect some big reversals from the WH...of course he'll let his broker and friends know beforehand.
69
@L Burr
Trump's supporter: hold my beer. They don't really care. They will re-elect him no matter what. Recession can't be undone by reversing the tariffs, it's too late. Just like you can't unkill a person by pulling out the knife from his heart. The economic has a good run, we should be grateful for the longest bull run in history. We should name this newest recession the Trump Recession.
1
@L Burr
Why would anyone expect that one piece of bad news is going to make Trump "straighten up and fly right"?
I expect that his first reaction will be to ascribe blame to somebody else, long before he worries about fixing the problem.
What about all of the treaties that Trump tore up, claiming that he would do better? Basically he has accomplished NOTHING on that front.
As Paul Krugman recently pointed out, when business people are uncertain about what actions (or changes to the economic environment) are likely to happen in the near future, they hunker down, and do as little as possible as regards new plans.
Even if Trump were to reverse direction (once again), many business people would still be very cautious. Under those conditions, the trends run for a while.
4
@L Burr "Trump will be hung on his own petard."
A petard is a small bomb. Shakespeare wrote "hoist on his own petard." (Hoist as in lifted.)
1
Trump's trade war may have kicked off a world wide recession. It will take decades to fix world trade markets that his foolish tariffs hath wrought.
11
A bad patch for a German citizen is ever so much safer than the routine battering hitting Americans even in boom times.
Germany has a more comprehensive social safety net for its citizens. How we Americans could learn from the insulation it provides against the buffeting of economic reversals! Here in Europe, you’re not going to end up on the street, unemployable at 50, with zero health insurance and Social Security too low to sustain life, and families too dispersed, alienated and broke to help.
Yes, there may be pain and struggle in Germany but not the one-way ticket to oblivion you’d get in America’s new oligarchy.
How ironic that a state that committed such crimes in its past values human dignity and the welfare of its citizenry so much more than we.
Even in my bucolic corner of Slavic Europe I’m better off than at home.
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@Bohemian Sarah
"How ironic that a state that committed such crimes in its past values human dignity and the welfare of its citizenry so much more than we."
Well said.
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@Bohemian Sarah
Ironic isn't it? Here in America where we claim to cherish freedom and capitalism, we instead are yoked with unbridled capitalism that benefits very few and the freedom to live with subsistence wages, inadequate and overpriced healthcare, little security in old age and the ever present fear of gun violence.
Kris Kristofferson's lyrics ring true.
"Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose"
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Oh not that again. Especially the US is the last who can open their mouths about “past crimes”. Or is it really not taught in your schools that you wiped out a race just to have space for yourselves?!
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It will be fascinating to see whether recessions hit those two-export dependent economies and whether those recessions are contagious. We remain particularly vulnerable to the depth and duration of potential near-term recessions due to current interest rates at record lows and deficits at record highs.
The nation's monetary and fiscal arsenals that have provided the traditional policy remedies for recessionary cycles have been rendered unavailable like no previous time in history. Under these conditions, the next recession could make 2008 look like the canary in the coal mine.
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Automobile sales have already hit a deadline globally not on account of any trade war but purely on account of reaching saturation point. Everywhere in the world, vehicles are found left, right and centre. Many middle class families have at least two cars in America and even in countries like India.
Middle class is the biggest consumer market one can ever have globally. These people have been lured to the extreme by providing ridiculous loans to the point of extreme. Middle class is squeezed more than it can afford.
The writer could have given more examples other than this issue. However China will not feel the trade war impact greatly. It’s only American consumers, who suffer most on account of this issue due to non availability of American goods in many areas that too at cheaper rates.
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Elect a clown, expect a circus. The worst part of Trump's cultured ignorance is his inability to know what he doesn't know, on top of his willful refusal to take advice from those that do. Global recession, nuclear meltdown, fraying alliances, geopolitical hotspots (India-Pakistan, Korea-Japan, etc.) burning and climate catastrophe are but a few achievements of this "President". The tariff war is one of the most profoundly ignorant, ill-conceived actions ever taken by the United States. Germany's impending financial crisis (never a good thing) is likely the tip of the iceberg. Hard to see how the contagion will be contained. And the Republican Party still props up this malignant conman. How far we have fallen in less than 3 years is staggering and depressing, even as it was completely predictable.
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@Fuego
So what evidence do you have that its not Brexit Chaos and Confusion causing the contraction with Germany? Oh, this article suggests its the Trade War with China? So how does a US trade war with China affect Germany?
But having a No Deal Brexit hanging over everyone's head not having any ripples? You sure?
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@GregP
As was stated in the article, and is generally known, China is the growth market for automobiles. Automobile sales in China have fallen and German automakers, Germany's critical industrial output, are feeling the pinch. Sorry, but the U.K. doesn't much matter when it comes to auto sales.
Brexit certainly doesn't help but the information that indicates the issue with auto sales is presented in the article, and countless others, quite clearly.
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@Fuego spot on, except for the 'cultured' part
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Trade wars are easy to win! China is paying the tariffs!
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@Everyman
... and Trump is a "very stable genius."
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@Everyman
So much winning!
“auto sales there have been slipping after years of explosive growth,...”
The expectation of ceaseless economic growth across as countries, industries and metrics of the world, especially in the face of stagnant and soon to be declining populations, is baseless fantasy and oftentimes counterproductively cruel to everybody but stockholders.
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It took Bush nearly 8 years to tank the world economy.
Can Trump break his record?
We may know soon.
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@Grove
Many believe the root cause of the 2008 financial crisis traces back to deregulation of the financial services industry under the "corporate democrat", Bill Clinton. Clinton let the horses out of the barn, the damage they caused is not the fault of George Bush.
Also, many people believe the current delicate economic situation in the world is the result of the monetary policies adopted in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Trump is not responsible for that situation, although it is certainly not a good time for a "bull-in-a-China-shop" President.
@Grove
Bush had help; it was Bill Clinton who repealed Glass-Stegall and allowed Wall Street, and banks to become "too big to fail", invest in derivatives, manipulate mortgage portfolios and create super national banks. It was eliminating the Depression Era safe guards that caused the Great Recession. What regulations, which were put in place, under the Obama Administration fall way short of what Glass-Steagall did. The Trump Administration, and Wall Street, have helped to weaken what was in place. Add to that Breaxi, and trade wars, and this toxic mess will create a recession. Remember, though, it was Bill Clinton, by repealing Glass-Steagall that not only caused the Great Recession, but the feeling most Americans have, that the Great Recession never ended.
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@Nick Metrowsky
Bill Clinton did sign the repeal, but it wasn’t as though he came up with the idea.
It did stem from Republican relentless pressure to make the rich richer.
True though, Clinton should not have signed it.
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The 2008 crisis was largely due to the US and now Trump’s trade “policies” are dragging the world down again. How long does the rest of the world put up with our economic mismanagement?
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@gVOR08
Keep in mind that both times that mismanagement took place during a Republican administration.
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I do not wish a recession on any country or its people. The question to consider given BREXIT and inverted yields in the US Bond market is when will the Untied States and Great Britain join in recessions. I suggest we may soon be experiencing a global recession.Investors and markets prefer stable global conditions. Wars, disease, extreme weather conditions all contribute to human suffering and the instability of global financial markets. Recessions are not just market corrections they bring wide spread suffering. Recovery may take a decade or longer.
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@ek perrow
Great Britain contracted 0.2% last quarter so GB may be in recession as well
Would be interesting if this provides the Tories political cover for Brexit and any hardships that causes in The UK. It is easy to imagine them rationalizing that the bad times following Brexit were the result of a global downturn and not due to anything they did or didn’t do.
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This is exceptionally bad news. It is perfectly timed to hit Gen Z as they graduate and we will have two generations in a row who have fallen hopelessly behind and can not afford to buy a home due to a financial crisis.
If you are afraid of socialism, this is the path to it. Two frustrated generations who will shape politics for the future.
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@Ken Perhaps a definition of "socialism" might enlighten us as to whatever fear you mention. If by "socialism" you mean "irrationally-based protectionism," or "foolishly contrived national-security scares (see also: immigration policy)," then I am right beside you.
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@Ken
"afraid of socialism" ?? No I am afraid of a bumbling Trump using an oncoming recession, as a way to blame "the other". That is how dictators rise to power.
I am afraid we could see the rise of a Fascist dictator, who has never been constrained in his disastrous trade war by a compliant Republican Senate.
7
Any loss of sales by VW in the U.S. is more likely the result of the diesel emissions scandal than the Trump-created trade tensions.
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@Gene S
Don't quite follow.
I did not think Trumpers cared a hoot about diesel emissions.
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@SV
The weakness in VW sales is not due to El Trumpo but because people like me, who were considering buying a VW (the dealer is less than a mile from my home) were turned off by the distrust of VW engendered by the emissions scandal.
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That is precisely why my husband and I refused to buy a VW three years ago when we moved from the city to Albany! Volkswagen cheated on something very important and didn't want to own up to it!
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We are unprepared for a recession.
Trump has contributed greatly for squandering whatever opportunities there were. The tax (not a) cut was a tax increase for the coasts and will only make the recession deeper when it hits.
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Yes, a tax increase for the coasts. But it will
be the Trump voter who will be most affected.
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@Dodger Fan What do you mean, "we"? The top .1% has already moved into cash or short sell positions, and will party like it's 1999 when the markets crash and real estate goes into foreclosure.
I shed no tears for the German economy based as it is on vehicles which will, in a few years, replace buggy whips as a metaphor. But, to use another car industry saying, "what’s good for the country is good for General Motors, and vice versa." That works for those of us whose horizons extend below the lower 48. A President who sets out to crash another country's economy, be it target China or passer-by Germany, will eventually crash his own. You don't need to read Adam Smith or even Karl Marx to understand that.
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@Andrew
Many good points, particularly in terms of Trump's having set up the conditions to grind us all down into dirt, financially speaking. But aren't German automakers going full bore in trying to catch up with Tesla? Electric is the future, no? (And never mind wind turbines causing cancer, according to some.)
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@Andrew
All car manufacturers, including Germany's big three, are strongly investing in EV's, which they know is the future. This said, the life span of cars is about 17 years in the US, meaning that about half of the present cars and light trucks, essentially all gas powered, will be still around in the mid-2030s, as the turnover to EVs is still quite slow and the majority of vehicles produced within the next 5-10 years will be gas powered. Their lifespan will only be shortened by government decree with huge financial encouragements. I doubt that will happen, The other way of reducing car demands is by vastly improving our public transportation system. In the US that will not happen either anytime soon.
3
Hardly need for panic. Germany has the largest trade surplus in the world; huge reserves; and hasn't had a budget deficit for 9 or 10 years. The UK btw which is in the EU but not the Eurozone shrank 0.2% in Q2.
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@John
"Germany has the largest trade surplus in the world"
That honor goes to China, by a wide margin ($900 vs $300 billion).
1
Worst possible situation for Germany. This gives some more ammunition for all those nationalists.
Would it be fair to say that globalization of economies is not always a fair and winning formula? It picks winners unevenly and inconsistently.
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@SridharC
No need for pearl clutching. Germany has the largest trade surplus in the world, huge reserves and hasn't had a budget deficit for 9 or 10 years. Germany is the ultimate big winner and probably the best run country in the world. The US should be so lucky.
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You wouldn’t know it was the best run country in the world with the way the Germans complain about everything and everybody these days. They have an aging population and a labor shortage. Markel tried to fill the gaps with the migrants but she completely botched it and made the situation worse leading to ever lurking nationalists to crawl out of the woodwork. Ultimately, I’m more confident in Germany’s ability to get things right before we do
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@SridharC "more ammunition for all those nationalists." This is an idiotic statement. The nationalists you seem to fear are more worried about a gutless, feeble-minded government letting too many illegal migrants stay in the country living off German taxpayers. These people are called German citizens and "nationalists" is no derogatory description. They know how important the export economy is, and how much Germany exports to Europe. And how important superior quality is for their products. Your comment is idiotic. Obvious that you have never been out of the US, much less to Germany.
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The fact that Volkswagon sold cheater diesels and hasn't owned up nor apologized might have dinged sales, too . . .
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@Mtnman1963 The U.S. has more than its share of owed apologies for environmental damage at the hands of industry; consider that and then please dismount from that there high horse.
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@Richard Steele . . . and they are not part of the German economy, nor part of this discussion, correct? Sanctimony much?
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@Mtnman1963 Yup, a few dinged sales in one car company is rocking the economies of Germany and China. Are all Trump supporters economic geniuses?
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I've said it before and I'll say it again. You can't hurt the world's two largest economies with a trade war, ours and China's, without hurting economies in the rest of the world. Germany's looming recession may not be the only one.
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@Christy "I've said it before and I'll say it again."
I told you so. When? Where?
Question: how much of this is about reality (the impact of trade wars on the global economy) on the one hand;
....and how much of this about perception (the perceived threat of possible drag on the economy by trade wars) on the other hand?
I realize of course that in economics perception is its own kind of reality.
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@Paul McGlasson
Reality or Perception; the effect is the same.....
1
@Paul McGlasson
Many German auto makers do their assembly in Hungary. In the last few months one new plant slated to open has been shelved and another plant has closed altogether because of the economic uncertainty Trump has created. More are scheduled to follow.
That’s not perception, that’s reality.
3