In 2016, my opinion of Donald Trump was..he was sorta goofy, if not sorta creepy. Never passed my mind to vote for him, in fact, he was embarrassing. At the present, I guess there are folks who would now call me a Trump cultist, and it's not just that I like the guy, I love him! And what's even weirder, he now comes across not just as kinda cool, in fact, very very cool.
I can't even explain it...
26
It is very difficult to hate a psychopath, this is part of their charm!
7
@Brains, I've never had a problem hating psychopaths - and cutting them out of my life.
1
I sincerely can’t understand how any self-respecting person can support Trump. He is a vile person. He spews hatred wherever he goes. I can’t even look at a photograph of him, because I am so disgusted by his lies and greed. I despair not because of Trump, but because so many Americans support such an immoral person. Sad days.
1790
Ps. @ReyandtheResistance,
The ultra-wealthy are the ones who create and sustain this structure that gives the vast majority of us so much daily despair and disgust.
19
Hi, Rey &the Resistance~
In this country, where we're indoctrinated to show great respect to "our" "self-made" millionaires and billionaires, self-respect is simply bought (after all, the goal is to commodify everything in this business-run country). And as an example of this, my guess is that many of our nation's so-called liberals show these extremely wealthy people great deference in their personal interactions with them—on the rare occasions when their worlds happen to meet.
Trump's supporters include extremely wealthy businesspersons. Do you think these ultra-wealthy ponder the meaning of self-respect when they're living in mansions in gated communities, having their children luxuriously cared for, schooled, and sent to the top universities, and generally all of them enjoying a life that is completely free of the severe social and economic stresses that you and I suffer under on a daily basis?
My guess is that in living such a life as that, "self-respect" never enters their minds. And they certainly don't share in your despair (they're living quite comfortably, after all).
I would also say, please bear in mind that Trump is merely the most visible (and vile) symptom of much deeper (and nearly invisible) structural problems in this country. And it is the ultra-wealthy that create and sustain this structure.
3
@ReyandtheResistance
1) Some people can support most of his policies even if they think he is an narcissist, idiot, and immoral.
2) You under-estimate how bad the other side is. I do not vote, and I can't stand Trump, but I strongly prefer 4 more years of Trump as opposed to what would happen if the policies of Bernie, AOC and most of the Democratic candidates espouse. A lot of Trump "Supporters" and certainly voters feel this way.
9
If it's true, and I'm afraid it is, now we know with certainty how Nazi Germany came to be. Apparently, lots of folks "approve" of pure evil.
361
Imagine where Trump's approval ratings would be if we had an objective & honest media. It's remarkable how he can still be at a consistent 90%+ approval rating amongst Republicans & a 40-45% overall approval rating.
Also, bear in mind how Trump opponents were adamant during the election campaign that if Trump won & became POTUS he would crash the economy, take us into a recession. We've been told how WW3 was imminent, how NATO is going to be abolished, how Trump couldn't be trusted with the nuclear codes, etc, etc.
All of these claims have proven to be complete hogwash, never mind the whole Russian collusion hoax & how that wasted 2 yrs & $30m just to satisfy the blood lust of many Democrats. Are they humble in their defeat at framing the President, have they apologised to the President for making these absurd & vindictive collusion allegations? Of course they haven't, they'll just move onto the next lie about Trump.
19
It ain’t over till it’s over. He still has the capacity and momentum to destroy our democracy.
3
@kojak
You write:
Also, bear in mind how Trump opponents were adamant during the election campaign that if Trump won & became POTUS he would crash the economy, take us into a recession.
Actually, he is working on that. He may get it done before the next election. Also, he would like to abolish NATO but has so far been unable to push it across the finish line. And the Russian interference was not a hoax. If I were a Alex Jones or of that ilk, I would say that the lack of evidence of his campaign's explicit collusion with the Russians is proof enough that it happened.
3
I'm sure it is white people who like him. He hasn't taken us to war, he's restoring the idea of white supremacy and he gave rich white people tax cuts. Of course they like him and his agenda. We people of color are mere collateral damage to him and his supporters.
178
@Jen How do you explain the people of color who support him? I am white and I am horrified and ashamed of him and my fellow citizens who support him.
17
@fireweed It's mostly white people who support him. He has less than 10 percent support among black people. That hasn't budged. He has 30 percent or less support among LatinX people. If you do not support him, then move along. But it is an indisputable truth that he is in office because a majority of white people voted for him and continue to support him in spite of his racism. Why is it that white people can generalize about other races, e.g. a young black man commits a crime and you generalize it as though it's a pathological condition attributable to his blackness. Yet I make a general statement that is categorically true about the majority of white people (you support trump), then you demand that you not be included. Maybe spend more of your time talking to your Trump-supporting contemporaries and addressing racism rather than being overly sensitive and saying, "but, not me." I really don't care if you are horrified. A majority of people who look like you do not care that there is a man occupying the White House who has no qualms about incarcerating brown children and instigating the hatred that inspired the killing of 22 people simply because they are brown. When the man in the White House doesn't recognize the humanity of black and brown people and his support is growing among white people, I could care less about hurting the feelings of white people who didn't vote for him. Capeesh?
15
@Jen
Rich white people want more money
Poor white people just need to be told they are superior because they are white.
Trump caters to both. And wins.
18
I literally feel nauseated reading this. Nauseated and anxious. Usually, even if I do not agree with someone, I can see their side of things. Why anyone voted for Trump the first time I cannot begin to comprehend. Why anyone would vote for him again boggles the mind.
Four more years of Trump? The country I love is unrecognizable now! Where will we be in 2024 if Trump and the Republicans are still in power? The thought is terrifying. And, incredibly depressing.
910
@Kathryn I'm with you all the way on this. :(
40
@Kathryn well, if it happens, and i pray it doesn't....he is kinda old. There is something we can all hope for....
26
@Kathryn
Hopefully with a still roaring economy and a much more conservative judiciary. Whoohooo Trump 2020
6
I am a Trump supporter, but would never let anyone know that I am. That’s how bad the left has gotten.
150
@J That's interesting. You would think that if only the "left" was the problem, then you'd be happy to trumpet your affection for Trump to your centrist and right-leaning friends.
Generally, we humans don't form our opinions and preferences by grace of an independent or objective read of the environment, but rather frame our view of the environment to match our preferences and ingrained opinions. I know I do it -- but I try to remain aware. Perhaps a disinclination to publicly avow affection for Trump is an indication that he's objectionable across a broad spectrum of the body politic.
367
@J
I live in a fairly liberal area where Trump got about only about 20% of the vote in 2016. Remarkably, I didn't see a single Trump sticker or yard sign during the General Election season in spite of seeing many supporting Clinton. I even saw a some supporting Gary Johnson.
I assume it was fear of reprisal (perhaps even at work) or shunning that caused Trump supporters to withhold their visible support for Trump -- but it's possible that most of those 20% that voted for him were "Anyone But Clinton - No Matter Who The Alternative Is" so didn't really "support" Trump.
Interestingly, as the Democratic landscape narrows, we could soon end up with Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris and then that could get winnowed down to Biden and one surviving progressive. If the other progressives (and their supporters) throw their support to the remaining progressive, the Democrats could again be facing a loss due to votes by "Anyone But That Crazy Progressive [Sanders, Warren, Harris]".
I didn't vote for Trump, but so far he's done much less damage than I feared. I'd not say I "approve" of him, but I might vote for him if Sanders (Warren, Harris) is the alternative. One thing Trump has done well, in my mind, is in the area of judicial appointments and I wouldn't be heartbroken to see that continue. However, if Biden is the candidate, he might get my vote -- in most ways he's less dangerous than Trump and, without the Senate, won't be able to make sweeping changes.
41
@Bob Richards In y neck of the woods in liberal Massachusetts it was the other way around. I almost never saw a Clinton sign on people's yards, but I saw quite a few Trump signs. Trump nevertheless was trounced in Massachusetts. My thought was that people who were voting for Clinton saw no need to try to persuade others -- we all knew she would win our State. People who supported Trump were the ones who felt they needed to encourage other Trump voters. That's how I interpreted it anyway.
51
Who are these people who thinkTrump is great? Do they not see their country burning around them? I fear karma will give this country what it deserves— a recession or depression, war, and climate change catastrophes and people gunning down others in the streets. Oh, we are already there!
40
Why did this NYT article not point out that Hillary did win the popular vote in 2016 by about 3 million votes. Our crooked electoral college then flipped it to Trump. Lets not ignore that fact.
38
"But the possibility that he has lifted his ratings, however fleetingly, to match the highest levels of his presidency is a reminder that the ceiling on his support is higher than some may think."
Horribile dictu!
4
Let's see, we can choose between socialism or capitalism, "Obama-care" or our existing health care, jobs or no jobs, high taxes or lower taxes, condemning/breaking up corporations that provide jobs or working to expand manufacturing in the US, open borders or controlled borders, free stuff for everyone (including illegal immigrants) vs common sense approach to social programs, encouraging illegal immigration vs controlling illegal immigration, ... The list goes on, and you wonder why President Trumps approval numbers are going up???
36
Approval by default. The DNC candidates and platform leave a giant void.
22
With Trump supporters being doxxed, only the exceptionally brave would say they support Trump to anyone. If anything these polls are understating Trump's support!
Atlas Shrugged was supposed to be a warning, Not A Newspaper!
21
I'm going to weight in and say the polls never chose Trump over Clinton. Now they're saying maybe or yes it's so. It can't be that Trump stays. I get it with the Steve Ross bunch. For the rest of us who are neither wealthy nor racist nor misognyist nor Faux fans nor the many issues Trump tweets about, just vote Democratic. As it was w/Clinton or others, don't do it. Use your good human brain not the reptilian one. Progress is good. Would you have feared amendments for citizen reform which included voting rights for women and African-Americans? Regulations for safe water, clean air, drilling permits for oil and gas, unadulterated milk? All symbolizes progress which is to the good, not the perfect.
7
In February of 2016, after watching extended coverage of two Trump rallies, I knew that he would win. His charisma, it was apparent, came from his flagrant refusal to be politically correct; here was this guy, with practically nothing to offer but brashness and the kind of humor that hadn't been heard in public in forty years--and with nothing else to offer. He was like a drunk uncle taking over the mic at a wedding reception. His superpower is the ability to make even his least sophisticated supporters feel morally superior to him. For ordinary, live-and-let-live people, here, finally, was a champion who helped them find their inner "don't read on me!" spirit. For those who say: "they're all white and old," I would remind you that part of the reason Trump didn't lose is that many black voters chose to stay home (not the relatively few who are being blocked; but the significant percentage who enthusiastically turned out for Obama). I think that if it is okay for some to vote their skin color, then all's fair. As for age, it is a telling thing that the majority of "Bernie-or-bust" people were on the younger side, and were too stubborn to imagine what would happen.
15
Democrats are always blinded by self righteousness. Republicans play dirty.
19
How many of the phone surveys were conducted via cell phone vs. landline? Younger voters could well be underrepresented if the preponderance were by landline, and the converse would be true for older voters. How many responses were collected via Internet surveys vs. phone interviews? What was the margin of error in the statistics used?
Perhaps a further expansion of data utilized for the predicted possible 2020 outcome with a little bit deeper look “into the weeds” of this survey would shed greater light on Mr. Cohn’s disheartening assertions.
12
The most depressing thing I have read in a long time....
35
Small wonder. One need only consider the Democratic presidential field to see why he looks better of late.
I don't think it's because of his winning personality.
25
I believe the 2020 elections will be like 2016 on steroids.
2016 manifested the total disconnect between the entrenched and career politicians , bureaucrats and their cheering squad, the mainstream media. Neither have been able to accept the will of the 2016 voter. Au- contraire their hate and disdain for both Trump and his supporters have become cacophonous, vituperative non'stop and frankly, unhinged
The candidates that the opposition is fielding are easier to imagine in a clown show. "vote for me an I'll give you (fill in the blanks) free."I will also get rid of all the essential energy sources that drive civilization.I will also eliminate our borders.
If I am correct, the country will no longer have a credible
public media as we know it today.
The Democrat party will no longer be viable either.
The entrenched elites have failed to listen and worse, remember who butters their bread.
The people.
31
@Ponyexpress Always those danged Dems
2
I’ve read a ton of comments, a ton of opinions on why this poll is or could be wrong. I will just say this, I traveled for work a lot the year prior to the 2016 election and I predicted that Trump had a great chance of winning just from seeing the support around the country. I don’t have a crystal ball but if you can watch people fill arenas and line up for blocks outside all of his rally’s or you can look at the ratings of Fox News compared to the other networks and not see that this man has a ton of support, you are kidding yourselves. A landslide win for Trump would not surprise me in the least.
36
@Scott
There's a ton of reasons trump could lose, for instance if a ton of people who didn't vote last time decide to vote by the ton. Laziness in the past has been responsible for a ton of crimes committed by an unworthy chief executive.
12
I worry that the Democrats' method of selecting candidates for public exhibition via "debates" is already corrupted. Why wouldn't the Russians or their domestic agents already be involved in candidate selection well before the election per se? Not to be paranoid, but it only makes sense: have the Dems run a poor candidate -- selected via tampered polls -- and thereby ensure Trump's reelection. So much easier than messing with individual state election systems, meddling that DHS or the FBI might detect! And quicker, too. No need for the national votes to come in if they assuredly pit the most unelectable Dem candidate versus Trump, who otherwise might not -- probably would not -- win a second term.
Election observer Judy Davis has written about this in the Daily Beast. Yet no one among the official Dems is talking about this possibility. Not surprising, given the quality of the debates so far. Which makes the unspoken danger even more profound, and its deployment more certain. Dems, wake up.
3
I like Trump a lot less now than I did in 2016, but am much more likely to vote for him in 2020. this is due to the noxious politics of the left wing. they've been unleashed in NYC nys and California legislatures with no brakes on radical policies. nothing good will come of this.
30
@Dave
Fear really trumps reason.
7
@dave What about trumps radical ideas?
6
If these are land-line telephones then the results are terribly skewed. I'm 58 and dropped my land-line years ago. The only people who answer land phones are the elderly and conservatives.
18
@Travis -- Land-line usage was essentially the same just two years ago when the comparative polling numbers were collected.
3
@Travis
Many of us who kept a landline did so for the purpose of maintaining a phone during weather-related outages when electricity goes out for significant periods of time. I also have a cell phone.
In fact, as a person who is a senior citizen and a liberal all my life, your broad-brushed assertion that we land-liners are all conservatives is a major ad hominem fallacy.
Would you consider Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, or Joe Biden conservatives? They all are “seniors” as well.
10
This may just reflect people who support whoever is the president, just by his office. It may not mean they would vote for him.
3
@Paul O It reflects those who support the person who is presently IN the office of the President, and that happens to be Donald Trump.
3
We have already seen a post 2016 measure of Trump election possibilities--not polling. It was called th 2018 mid-terms and Trump, who wanted it to be a referendum on him and it was and he lost badly. And exit polls showed people were voting against Trump. Since 2016, Trump has lost suburbanites and Independents, and I have not seen where has made any appreciable gains to balance that out.
29
I agree.
After two exhausting years of craziness from this nightmare president, there is just no way that Trump has attracted more voters.
Perhaps a few children of Trump supporters have now become eligible to vote in 2020 but I would guess an equal amount of attrition took place with his aging supporters as well.
Trumps increasingly offensive behaviors are intended to keep his base happy but he seems to do nothing to increase support from other groups.
So this puts all the pressure once again on Trumps campaign to conscript foreign interference to win. And a year in advance Corey Lewandowski is already predicting Trumps win in New Hampshire using voter suppression tactics.
And we’re waiting to see if Ivanka’s new line of voting machines patented in China in November 2018 are available and installed in key voting locations.
Yet no one even raises an eyebrow. I guess we’re just accustomed to corruption by now.
10
@neil wollman Actually, almost every race Trump personally invested in during the midterms, his candidate won. Running up the score in places like Orange County, CA and upstate NY won't help during an electoral college election.
8
You forgot that Obama has BIGGER losses than Trump in the 2010 mid-terms yet he was re-elected! So by that logic President Trump will DEFINITELY be re-elected!!
7
Trump can never win a majority of voters.
But do not fear! The so called "Green Party" will have his back again in 2020 (while bankrolled by the GOP and promoted by Russian intelligence).
16
@Will. There was "no collusion", but that doesn't mean anything when you suffer from TDS.
13
@Will.Gary Johnson took more votes way from Trump than Stein took away from Hillary.
4
The question is - what does the very fact of the approval of a racist, narcissistic misogynist and elitist say about America and Americans? As well, what does this trend say about the state of the world in general? There seems to be an ever increasing global radicalization as well as intolerance, hate and seeming indifference to the plight of ‘the other’, be they non-white, the poor and disadvantaged, of ‘non-Christian’ religions. Along with climate change and all that that portends, it is a scary time in the world. Evil should not be allowed to flourish or humanity is at a dangerous precipice.
36
@Jazzie
Pope Francis is championing reason in addressing the seriousness of global warming and the urgency in reducing carbon pollution; he makes constant appeals for compassion and action by wealthier nations’ leaders for immediate aid for growing number climate refugees.
3
@Jazzie
Someone once made a speech about
a house divided.
Might be a good idea to think about this.
2
If we are repeatedly told lie after lie after lie, at some point we start to believe that the lie is actually the truth.
Propaganda is a powerfully destructive tool.
5
Muhwahahaha!
10
I rely on fivethirtyeight.com and their well-curated aggregation of polls for this kind of evaluation. There, Trump has been in the red for approval by pretty constant numbers, from -9.8 to -11.1 (43.1 to 53.2) today. I don't share Mr. Cohn's conclusions, which strike me as just more horse-race-ism to draw eyeballs and sell adverts.
And the generic Congressional ballot is 46.1%D vs. 39.9%R, a significant difference, but not yawning enough to predict a Senate takeover.
11
It’s the electoral college that Dems need to worry about.
3
@Leading Edge Boomer -- And fivethirtyeight.com got it so right in 2016.
6
Incomprehensible.
17
@Planetary Occupant Not really, given the direction that the Democratic/Liberal party has taken of late.
2
Trump's approval rating as of this week is exactly the same as Obama's the same 922 days into his first term.
Obama won re-election easily. Trump has a historically good economy. And a bizarre/radical group of Democrat opponents.
Trump will easily be re-elected.
51
@Prof Emeritus NYC
I doubt that PBO had this same personal approval rating at this point, and I think you must mean job approval rating.
In any case, whichever it is, PBO had the same rating with close to 10% unemployment as PDT has with 3.9%, and benefited from an improvement through to election. This current economy cannot much improve, and seems to be softening.
With the big jump in personal approval rating, PDT is now at 44%? That is a weak number and may be a high point.
1
@Prof Emeritus NYC
Yes. He will.
What will put him over the top will be the cohort of voters that won't vote FOR Trump, but AGAINST the train wreck the Democrats seem determined to nominate.
12
@Prof Emeritus NYC
Every Democrat running comes across as desperate. Pete and Andrew seem most able to be reasonable and level-headed (I personally disagree with many of their stands). Kamala and Corey are emotional wrecks, and Elizabeth has joined them, trying to showcase "anger", making increasingly more hateful statements. DeBlasio is in it for the laughs, Joe hasn't met an issue he can't flip on in 60 seconds and no one else has a chance.
15
The polls proved notoriously wrong in 2016 and it can happen again. That said, for those of us who wish to see Mr. Trump and his disastrous regime removed from the WH, complacency is not an option. However, I strongly believe most of America will see that we cannot sustain another 4 years of 'this'!
20
@David Walsh
Actually, the polls were not that wrong. There were two factors that tilted the results in a couple of swing states by a few thousand votes: the Russian and domestic campaigns of disinformation, and the complacency of Clinton's organization. Remember that Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million, and the key states were lost by less than 100,000 votes. The polls were not wrong, people misread the statistics. As long as we have the electoral college, and the winner takes all the electoral votes in almost every state, we are going to have this situation: only a few thousand votes in key states actually count.
14
@David Walsh
There was nothing "wrong" about the high quality polls of 2016.
All the pollsters of such polls said the predictions were within their margin of error.
It was only news media that called them "wrong".
5
@David Walsh We can sustain four more years of "this" just fine. It's only those who suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome and excessive Political Correctness who won't be able to sustain it and will continue to lose their minds as the rest of us sigh, "Thank GOD".
7
This should be a wake up call. We, all of us, must get much more involved. Voting is not enough.
23
The fact that the online and the telephone poll results are so different is a red flag for me that calls into question the thesis of the article. The evidence here is weak. Who on Earth answers a telephone poll anymore?
20
@Andrew
It seems likely that the people responding to telephone polls are considerably older than average.
4
@Andrew older people. This tells me that older people have moved toward him even more while younger people have moved away. That is not surprising of course
2
@Andrew Those are usually planned to confuse with biased questions. Be careful , as you are.
I think doubling down on the 2016 strategy of calling anyone who doesn't agree with the Democratic Party, a racist, is not wise. We'll see.
28
@Gaspipe Casso
You don't need to agree with the politics of the Democratic party to acknowledge that Trump is a racist and racists and other radical right wing groups have taken over the GOP.
Right or wrong don't have to be an issue of political ideology. Many people that are economically and/or socially conservative agree that Trump is feeding racism and polarization in the country. What they do about it is between them and their conscience.
4
Although I find nothing commendable about Trump, a vile man-child, his reelection -- even with new supporters, it would happen only through Electoral College vagaries -- might have an upside. It would turn up the factional pressure-cooker so high that the nation would burst at its increasingly evident seams, releasing us from unitary chains that serve only to bind us to Big Money (local and global) and Big Government.
A devolved America would be so much more in keeping with who we are, provide more people with more choices as to how and where they choose to live, democratize policymaking, and break the national chains that native and global capital have forged. We would do much better as a Canada than a Russia.
As for Trump, let him rule his tiny devolved kingdom and those who believe they'll get a better shot living with his blather. The rest of us can get on with forging regional governments that work for us, not against us as the Constitution should have provided ... and would have, were it not written by petty potentates, clueless philosophers, and slavers, all male, white, and privileged.
7
@Bob Jacobson You're espousing the hollow values of the very ideology which led to Trump being elected in the first place, by people who saw through the phoniness of your fallen idol, Hillary. And it will only continue.
4
@Bob Jacobson -- Your grandmother, Emma Goldman, said it with more charm and flair.
1
Nate Cohn says, "Over all, his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points among registered voters since Election Day 2016, to 44 percent from 34 percent, according to Upshot estimates."
This is a gross mischaracterization of the data. In fact (look at Cohn's first graph), Trumps polls jumped 10 points immediately after after the election, and have remained essentially unchanged ever since. That's the incumbency effect, which Cohn does not mention anywhere in his article.
9
@Darth Vader what you wish to call it doesn’t change the conclusion
Given the approximate 146,000,000 registered voters, wouldn't it help to provide the size of the samples and the standard deviations for the various polls? Much more analysis, please.
13
My view of donald trump is unfavorable because his actions are those of a conman and a puppet.
He is unfit, unbelievable, corrupt, and abusive.
The POTUS should be held to the highest standard, not the lowest.
His administration is literally trashing, plundering, and poisoning the environment. They don't want to clean up the resulting mess; and they don't want to pay for the medical care of the people who become sick from the contaminated environment they created for profit.
Reminder: The statements from republicans are often contradictory. They mean the opposite of what they tweet.
17
l am not a democrat or republican but l am an American, and this man is not goo for America
15
@akin caldiran Only in the minds of those who suffer from TDS. Otherwise, in the real world, Donald is doing just fine.
It greatly reflects the comedy of candidates that is the Democratic Party. Hillary was responsible more than anything or anyone for his election and this mediocre group will get him re-elected....even more easily.
Good grief!!!!
13
I’ve been in a number of states this summer, seeing friends and doing research for a book. I’ve overheard a number of conversations from people who support Trump. One couple - old friends from Vermont, are split - he is for Trump while she is for Bernie. What unites them is their concern for the shrinking middle class. It seems to me that a candidate who hopes to beat Trump must be genuine, not blowing smoke, and speaking to all Americans with the same message, as opposed to saying different things to different audiences. No pandering, in other words.
There is harsh criticism of both parties - both in their own ways are catering to special interests. Trump knows his base and plays it like a virtuoso. Just having not- Trump positions and hoping that will be enough won’t suffice, in my view.
21
A first-term president presiding over what is perceived to be a good economy gets re-elected. The Democrats are going to have to address that if they want to get one of their -- our -- own elected. Everything else is secondary. That's unfortunate, but it's reality.
21
@HKGuy I can agree with you on that! It’s kinda unfortunate that the Democrats are going to have a hard time in 2020, but it’s the truth.
3
@HKGuy Trump my already have addressed it for the Democrats.
1. Tariff war. The current economy is only better than under Obama because the trajectory under Obama spilled over into Trump's term. Trump's ignorant moves are beginning to blunt that momentum; even more, his own supporters are feeling most of that pain, and that will only get worse. Because of several factors, the unemployment rate will perforce bottom out above zero, and will probably start going up, all other things being equal.
2. Failure of the 1%-tax-cut to trickle down to make an economy grow enough to make up the tax revenue shortfall; those effects are beginning to be felt. The Fed is making moves usually reserved for avoiding a recession.
Trump may skate if these things don't tank significantly before November 2020, or he can spin it so that his supporters can fool themselves that all is still well. But that might not continue to be enough to compensate for his other negatives, especially now that he's coming further and further out as a straight up racist.
9
A rational Democrat. Wish there were more. The country would be better for it.
2
If he's elected again, we are all complicit for not doing enough!
If you want something different, you need to vote, donate to your candidate, turn off the TV and Facebook and get involved!
23
@Chris why would u want something different? He is doing a great job! Tackling all the tough problems that the rest of our leaders over the past 20 years have caved on.. The economy is great. We are slowly but surely winning the trade war with China, something no other president even mentioned let alone tried to do something about.
16
Stop reading the NYT. Stop commenting. Knock on doors!
2
Do you honestly believe in this day and age, where there seems to be a very strong partisan dividing line, that knocking on doors will make a difference? Who right now does not know, and that a very strongly know, what they think of Donald Trump...and not just everyone in America...but in the entire world.
I am an independent that has voted to the left the majority of my life. The party has moved too far left for me to support further. I do not agree on the current progressive stances on abortion, massive proposed spending increases, and especially immigration. As a white Christian male, I am very tired of being told I the cause of all evil in the world today. Not only does the Democratic party no longer want me supporting them, they openly dislike me as a person. I do not like Trump, and did not vote for him last time. However, I will either not vote at all this time, or hold my nose and vote for four more years of a great economy. Its really sad it has come to this.
35
@CMiller
I'm very surprised at your comments, and wonder if you've ever voted to the left. Democrats have always been progressive on a women's right to choose, and Republicans have decried Democrat spending increases since Social Security and Medicare. But Republican huge tax cuts to the wealthy, while much smaller for the rest of us, has vastly decreased funding for the Government and social programs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, plus highways and infrastructures, etc. And increased the deficit by trillions (Reagan, Bush, Trump tax cuts, Republican Iraq and Afghanistan Wars). And that "great economy" for you is balancing on a precipice with Trump tariffs and trade wars!
And, if you listened to any of the Democratic debates, you would have seen that Democrats have many different views.
18
@CMiller
What is sad is believing that a vote for him is a vote for continuation of a "good economy" sad too is that your notion of what a good economy is apparently extends no further than your immediate satisfactions. They will soon enough reflect the dire mismanagement and foolishness of current policies, and sadder still is your claim to hear the Democrats rejecting you - far from it. More than sad is your implicit embrace of the extreme right - after all you reject the extreme left and are going to vote the economy you mistakenly believe emanated from the right - one that nonetheless was ( 2012 and on ) tilted in defiance of good reason and is now on the brink of a once avoidable but now worsening crisis. The virtuous sounding "independent" too often stands for something else.
10
@Peggy Ledbetter....and they have American citizens' interest at heart. Not perfect all the time, but devoid of cruelty against mere children separated from their parents perhaps forever just in a failed effort to what trump thinks will appease his "base" voters!
3
This is quite disappointing, but hardly surprising. Genocide, racism, and violence are foundational elements of America. The stories we tell ourselves about American exceptionalism conveniently leave this out. 40% of our population are brainwashed by Fox 'news', and celebrate willful ignorance.
20
@markymark
While the United States has committed many huge mistakes in its history, it has always, at its best, tried to live up to its foundations in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. That is, until the Trump administration. I doubt if Trump has read our Constitution that he has sworn to uphold, or if he has, he doesn't know the meaning of it.
12
@markymark Sorry, we aren't brainwashed by Fox, we aren't racists or white supremacists. We aren't uneducated or deplorable. We just disagree completely with the policies of democrats. Your thinking from your left wing bubble is why Hillary lost, and why Trump will likely win again. You still don't get it.
17
@Peggy Ledbetter Right, trump could not care less for those he presides over, us. That despite his pledge to our Constitution!
2
To those who criticize Senator Bernie Sanders for seeming angry and always yelling, I ask you that with Trump, climate warming, growing income disparity, gerrymandering, conservative Supreme Court for generations to come, institutional racism, Mitch McConnell obstructionism, mass incarceration, and worse;
why aren’t you angry and yelling, too?!
20
@Joel H Mass incarceration. Trump pushed through and signed a prison reform bill. I wonder how many prisoners were freed that were languishing in prison thanks to Bill Clinton and Joe Biden's 1995 crime bill.
5
@Joel H We're not "angry and yelling" because many of the problems you cited don't even exist, except in the futile minds of those suffering from TDS.
4
Simply said: Unbelievable.
12
I know people like this. They held their noses and voted for Clinton in 2016 but now they support Trump. When you probe a bit, you find several reasons. First, they really believe he is being targeted by a liberal media who find fault with everything. Second, they are affluent fiscal conservatives who think those who aren't doing well just don't work hard enough and, oh by the way, their 401ks are doing just fine. They don't believe that Trump has sexually abused or harassed any women, and, most importantly they are closet white supremacists who have zero understanding of white privilege. None. Make no mistake, they might want Trump to tone down the rhetoric, but they support his language on immigration, Islam, etc.
29
@Rennie Carter Keep telling yourself all that, and keep losing elections. We simply do not agree with your party's extreme left wing policies.
14
whether or not trump gets elected doesn't matter in a way, because the country is split beyond trump. it's been brewing since the 90s.
7
I don't think Trump can full take credit for changing the minds of millions of Americans who did not like him in 2016. The NYT, the left-wing media, and the "Squad" have done more to change those minds than Trump has.
35
Once thought that Biden was the best to take on this President but after the debates I now think Gabard and Mayor Pete are probably the strongest that will give Trump a run for his money.
If the economy does not falter I predict President Trump will be victorious in 2020.
10
@NS COULD BE! TRUMP got the Feds to dangerously lower interest rates very recently so the economy got a fake boost thru the 2020 election as a Trump reward.
Having studied the "hutzpa" of the current Dem candidates for Pres, the Dem winner to face off to trump sucessfully seems to be Sen Eliz Warren , with her:
1. extensive plans to benefit middle class and others, fairly
2. her cool manner when subjected to bullying
Nobody else has these key abilities.
4
According to today’s Five-Thirty Eight poll analysis Trump’s job aprroval is at 42.1%, disapproval at 53.2%, an 11.1% net disapproval rating. I think you overstate his approval by voters. As of today, his approval is more or less in the middle of the extremes over time.
13
@Allen
National polls are meaningless.
It's all about state by state polling relevent to the Electoral College.
It's just that this far out, nobody wants to pay for that kind of research.
3
The NYT could help by avoiding labeling Warren's and other democrats' plans as 'socialist' or 'leftist' or 'radical'. Call the plans 'strong' or 'foresighted' - if adjectives are necessary. Trump won't be defeated if non-Fox media contributes to the doubt and fear about the proposals from less centrist candidates.
20
even if valid, he is still a criminal and has aided and abetted a foreign power enemy, and should be removed from office and prosecuted with extreme prejudice.
23
@j fender I see you're keeping TDS alive and well.
As a New Yorker familiar with Trump for a very, very long time, I never liked him. Never liked him for the same reasons we are seeing today as a president. He's a con man. Plain and simple.
35
One thing that I think is good: In 2016, most people were sure of a Clinton victory, and most opinion pieces explained how Hillary would easily defeat Trump. This time around, it seems to be the opposite, and this can only be a good thing. For one, more people will actually vote out of the real fear of a Trump victory, instead of assuming it's already in the bag...
22
Nate seems to be the one pundit not covering the sun with a finger.
Every one else is heading to the echo room and reporting the feedback as research.
His base is solid, and growing.
Meantime the Democrats cannot get their 24 candidates up to 2% in the polls.
The few above them are popular in deep fringe Liberal enclaves that somehow have come to represent the Democratic Party (see other article on this in the NYT today). The leading Democratic candidate is hated by most Democrats.
It’s a quiet wave, bigger and swelling.
Democrats wasted so much time in identity politics and pleasing the AOC acolytes, that they forgot about the actual electorate.
It’s too late now.
28
He's a climate change denier, racist, cozies up to the NRA, dismantles the EPA and other federal organizations, doesn't vet cabinet appointees, cheats on his wife, has been involved in various scandals and lies and the list goes on and on and on, but OK.
20
@JessyHope: But why?
The economy was, and is, still coasting on what President Obama did. The damage done by Trump's regulatory rollbacks, and his fox-in-the-henhouse appointments, will only become apparent in time.
And on, and on. Indeed.
12
We have immigrants from around the World in my area. The Syrian truck dealership owner, Cambodian florist, Armenian phone expert, barber lady from Mosul Iraq mechanical repair shop owner from Baghdad, and more...when politics comes up,sometimes in whispers they support Trump mostly.
Anecdotally support from such legal immigrants seems under estimated.. not many Democrats in this demographic.
25
Climate disaster? What problem? Iran nukes back in business? Ditto. NK firing rockets off yet again? Gotta love that murderous little guy. Treat Mexicans like garbage? Sure! China is not going to buy any of our agricultural products? Farmers tell ag secretary, good ole boy Sonny Perdue they aren't great just now. No sweat! Mass murders, but it's mental illness, not guns we have to blame for all of it. Etc., etc., etc., so what's not to love about Trump? You want chaos, you've got the right guy in the WH. His numbers belong close to zero. Shame on him. BTW, Dems ought to go all in on the fact that 4 more years of this guy will do a terrible number on Mother Earth. You know, where we live, the only place we have to live.
19
This is all noise. He's going to get re-elected or he isn't, at which point we'll find out who we really are and make our decisions for our lives from there.
4
Usually Nate Cohn is pretty accurate, but this article has me baffled. DTs approval rating has consistently been just a little above the 40% line for the last 2 years, and that doesn't seem to be changing much at all. I count 10 polls conducted entirely within the last week. The 5 by YouGov, 1 by Ipsos, and 1 by Morning Consult all have approval ratings between 40-42%. Only 2 by HarrisX and 1 by Rasmussen show higher levels (44-47%), and these pollsters are neither of the highest quality nor particularly even-handed. In fact, they both (especially Rasmussen) have a pretty strong partisan lean favoring Republicans. That is, their forecasts are systematically biased relative to actual outcomes.
Furthermore, the president's ***disapproval*** rating has also been very stable, generally in the low 50s. That hasn't changed either. All but 1 of the recent polls yielded 51-54% disapproving (the 51% was Rasmussen). Just 1 poll showed 49% disapproving (vs. 41% approving). In other words, the president's approval ratings have been in negative territory, averaging -10% or more, right along.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
15
@Stephen J You have to add 10 points to every poll. Trump supporters fear for their jobs, and sometimes safety if they admit it. Trump supporters watch other networks, they know what their opponents are up to. Liberals boycott Fox, they boycott food places that are owned by conservatives. Liberals are in a bubble. That's why all these ratings and polls are misleading.
8
@Stephen J Cohns point is that trump was declared the winner when his approval rating was 10 points lower
As I read about all the surprised and disappointed anti-Trumpers moan and groan over the idea that he might get re-elected. . . .If Democrats moved one inch toward passing even the most patchwork immigration reform instead of not even considering it for the sake of political correctness (and potential voters for their side), it would take away the one issue that he might win on. Most Americans see right through your identity politics and obstructionism on this issue and it insults their intelligence. Start by calling them "illegal" rather than "undocumented" which is exactly what they are. Begin with the most ridiculous laws on the books and change them: i. e. "Catch and Release (such that hundreds of thousands don't show up for trial--you might as well not "catch" them at all now for God's sake). Pass foreign aid bills for Mexico and Guatamala if they hold them until their asylum cases come up (apparently when they do, 80% are denied). Right now the American electorate (or enough to get Trump re-elected) will hold their nose and vote for him because they see as plain as day what this costs them: They know who pays for their free health care and so may other things. For example, no one brings up the fact that each illegal immigrant eligible for K-12 education costs taxpayers $12,000 per year! The biggest insult to their intelligence however is in some states illegals get priority for free college tuition over American citizens!!!! The list goes on.
26
@Irving Nusbaum
Please give me factual specifics on where you get your information.
We ALL are "illegal" in this country, except for the Native Americans, because we certainly pushed them out of their homes!
How would any undocumented immigrant get free healthcare? If they have insurance, they would have to pay for it. If they don't, they would have to pay emergency room fees.
And if those "illegal" immigrants are eligible for K-12 education, then their parents must be working here and paying taxes. Name me one undocumented immigrant that got priority for free college over an American citizen (and name that citizen, too.)
And it was the Republicans who refused comprehensive immigration bills proposed by Republicans Marco Rubio and John McCain. More recently, an immigration bill was proposed but, after initially agreeing to it, Trump rejected it. Therefore, it was dead on arrival.
Seems to me, the biggest identity politics (and the most dangerous) in this country is White Nationalism!
4
@Irving Nusbaum NOW we're talking, Irving. This is where the rubber meets the road. Well said, sir!
2
@Irving Nusbaum you could mostly stop illegal immigration by locking up the mostly republican business owners who are breaking the law by hiring them (that cohort would, of course, include trump). What part of illegal do they not understand? You on board with locking em up?
4
I am happy that the NYT is actually moving away from the clutch of radical lefty news and is genuinely interested in monitoring an election that Trump is going to win by a landslide with 35 plus states. The nyt has woken up. Will the other Lefties please stand up?
12
I only pay attention to Zogby and Pew.
Gallup is wack-wing evangelical, famous in the 80's for pumping up Reagan and the Moral Majority.
Who has a land-line anymore (except me?) and is sitting at home anxiously waiting for that call?
Everyone else that I know has simple cell or iPhone and any unknown numbers are blocked..... just like my landline.
And NO ONE gives info on computer polls.
I have no idea where this info is coming from.
12
"Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do". I no longer recognize this country.
Nate, thanks for a depressing start to my day
9
It could also fall if people get their heads on straight and realize that instead of cleaning the swamp he has dug a sewer for himself. Not is he only totally narcissistic and a liar but he is also a person of self inflected ignorance. He doesn't accept climate change and is undoing the good President Obama tried to do not only in climate change but in everything he did.
Trump is fixated on the people he perceives as his enemies. While he "falls in love" with the people who are his enemies and the enemies of their people and all of us. Kim is an evil man and a world class persecutor of his people. The Tweeter-in-Chief's big buddy Putin is laughing at him while manipulating our elections and elections of other nations. His BFF in Saudi Arabia and viscous murderer is the apple of the Tweeter's eye. Wow, what a resume of monsters.
10
@Bethed I think there's a method to his madness: Trump admires powerful people while recognizing their megalomaniac traits and knows that he must play the game skillfully in order to win.
Democrats need to focus on flipping the Senate. Policy change goes nowhere in the current Congress regardless of the Presidential outcome.
Beto and Julian, go back to Texas and get rid of John Cornyn in 2020.
Steve Bullock, go back to Montana and oust Steve Daines.
Bennet or Hickenlooper, go back to Colorado and beat Cory Gardner.
And somebody in Maine, please run two-faced Susan Collins out of town.
Stacy Abrams, please dump David Perdue of Georgia.
And finally, every Democrat open your wallet and send a dollar to Mitch McConnell's opponent, Amy McGrath.
19
@Sprogita uh Bennet is
Already our Senator.(til ‘22) And there are better candidates to take on Cory Gardner imho. (Mike Johnston and Andrew Romanoff.) But I agree about Maine, (Sara Gideon is running) Texas and Montana and perhaps Georgia. We all need to get behind flipping the Senate so that even if 45 somehow managed to stay there is a limit to the damage he could do.
4
It is hard for me to understand how Democrats can tolerate their representatives' and senators' frenzied, vicious, nonstop focus on destroying Donald Trump & his appointees, to the exclusion of all constructive, cooperative activity for the good of the nation as well as of ethical conduct on their part.
Do they think this makes them look good? Do they think they are being good role models for how to deal with political conflict?
The news media aids and abets this modus operandi and among them -- the Democrats, the media, the FBI and earlier, the IRS, they are ripping the country apart more than Trump ever could or would.
19
@JB. Perhaps look at the record of how much
Legislation has been passed through the House, some of it very bi-partisan. The Democrats are trying to do the people’s work. It’s McConnell who is refusing to take up any votes unless it’s to confirm some appointments for horribly vetted appointees. Drain the swamp indeed.
6
He is also benefiting from the apocalyptic reporting that began the moment he was elected. On election night on these pages, Paul Krugman declared that the markets would "never" recover. We have read articles (here and elsewhere) almost daily that everything he does is wrong and carries drastic consequences. And, while much of what he does is wrong and may carry drastic consequences, it doesn't feel that way because he has outperformed the reporting. The apocalypse hasn't arrived. Maybe he has hastened its arrival but that's hard to assess. But the reporting would have us thinking that Trump would have already delivered a 10 foot rise in sea levels, World War III, huge inflation, mass deportations and some alliance with Russia. Again, maybe this is all coming. But it hasn't happened yet. This makes many critics appear as if they've been crying wolf and makes Trump seem less terrible to many voters.
24
@SJG
You have a valid point, but we have never had a leader that has blatantly made the press and everyone who disagrees with him "the enemy of the country", when, in fact, he is the "enemy" against everything this country has stood for in our Declaration of Independence and Constitution. HIs uses the people at his rallies as his own homegrown mob, chanting his tweets. I've never seen anything as scary. So the press (except for Fox cable) is "fighting" Trump, his rhetoric and his deeds with everything in their power.
for, without freedom of the press, we have no safeguards in our Democracy!
I and many I know are extremely stressed from this Trumpism, and some can't even sleep at night they are so worried for our country.
3
This article confirms what many believe and that is that Trump will not be easily beaten by a Democratic opponent. In fact, it appears likely that only a moderate Democratic nominee will succeed in getting sufficient electoral votes to become president. If this is so, than why are so many Democratic candidates lurching to the left in their ideology and making preposterous promises that will never be kept?
Maybe the answer is that the Democratic candidates believe that their only hope of the nomination is to please their very left wing base at the expense of the overwhelming numbers of moderate Democratic and independent voters who want Trump gone but do not want to mess up the entire American economy with a socialist agenda and the promise of new entitlements that are not free and that must be paid by the taxpayer or added to an already oppressive $22 trillion dollar debt that must eventually be paid.
When picking their nominee, Democrats should be mindful of two words: McGovern & Mondale. Perhaps it is time to look more closely at the candidates who are moderate Democratic Governors.
19
@JAM the overwhelming majority of that $22 trillion was caused by republicans. Democrats are conservative when it comes to money. Republicans are not
1
Your yougov chart disproves your theory. You can't just cherry pick the lowest point in a wide range and arbitrarily say his approvals have gone up since that point - 2016 election day. His approvals fluctuate within a very consistent small range within most poll margins of error. The full yougov chart bears that out, showing similar ranges from well before 2016 election day to now. Add in your good point about people not admitting they like Trump, that adds even more margin of error. How do we know they didn't want to admit it on election day, but once he won they were ok admitting it? It's tough to use this data as evidence that Trump is in better shape now.
15
The only place where Trump is not doing well, and everybody hates him, and he will not get re-elected if they can’t impeach him first, and everything bad that happens is his fault, is in the democrat’s imagination and the fake news media. If their strategy is to try to convert non democratic voters to their side by confusing them, lying and calling them names like racists, deplorable, etc. It is working perfectly but in the opposite way. I would be able to assure them, that if they don’t change their strategy and become “smarter”, they keep going downhill. They’re having a very difficult time fooling even the most uneducated base which they’ve always used as their main target.
29
@Rodolfo Farinas Jr You're talking about someone who couldn't even win the popular vote in 2016, and is on track to lose it again. Thus the idea that Trump is doing well outside of the imagination of Democrats is itself imaginary.
5
Please speak of reason and logic instead of offending fellow citizens
3
Trump's trade war with China has many supporters. Many people blame China for the USs economic "decline" and they want a hostile confrontation. The Trump rally in the stock market and the economic growth during his term are helping his popularity. The GOPs efforts to coop the FED into their efforts to apply more and more stimulus to the economy are done to prop up Trump. The Democrats are being sold as too liberal. That means that infra structure, health care, education, and climate change are not places Trump wishes to venture.
12
Faulty assumptions appear to be built into Cohn's article, as well as the rating and polls on which it is based. Trump's rating among all eligible voters may well be decreasing not increasing, in light of his actions and rhetoric. But the poll is based only on responses given by registered voters, when they typically represent only about half of all eligible voters? Shouldn't the poll pose questions to a random sample of all eligible voters, and not just registered voters? To infer that Trump's approval rating is increasing, when only registered voters are polled, is unjustified. His approval rating, as I indicate above, may well be decreasing among eligible voters who are not registered and may be motivated by his actions and rhetoric to register to vote in order to vote against his re-election, in the event he is on the 2020 ballot and has not been impeached, convicted and ousted from office by then. Cohn's misleading headline is especially regrettable because I have heard commentators and pundits proclaim that half the American people support Trump. Such faulty inferences can easily and quickly grow out of faulty polls and analyses such as Cohn's. Let me also note that registered voters who can be identified and contacted by pollsters may also be voters who have been subjected to relentless social media barrages and even mass media barrages of fake news to distort their perceptions and judgments.
6
Like many voters I’m in a Catch-22. If one is crazy, one does not have to vote for Trump; and one must be crazy to vote for Trump. But one has to elect Trump to stop illegal immigration, and stopping illegal immigration demonstrates that one is not crazy.
As a result, one must elect Trump, because continuing to vote for Democrats proves one is truly crazy.
31
@Charlie Cruelty and racism and denying climate change and failing to defend the country from attack and accusations of rape and perjury and encouraging domestic terrorism should not be attributes that anyone overlooks for any other goals, including the economy or immigration. Doing that is crazy.
39
It’s a race for the Democrats to lose. I wouldn’t be surprised that they find a way to do exactly that.
28
@JamesThey are well on their way.
6
Trump's apparent approval rating speaks more to Fox news than to the minds of Republicans, which are of course, linked. If Fox refuses to acknowledge Trumps misdeeds, most Republicans will never know what he really says and does - and that is a big problem - except for those dealing with cognitive dissonance.
17
@jdevi Trump supporters don't only watch Fox news, they also watch the plethora of fake news on other networks and are disgusted by the lies and fear-mongering, which is why they will continue to support Trump. The left will eat itself.
2
I would like to know more about the "live interview phone poll" and its status as a gold standard.
In this household, we have largely given up answering unsolicited calls after too many turned out to be spam. We have no landline. We are of a generation that grew up with rotary dialing. If we aren't doing it, who among the age groups younger than us are answering calls?
Specifically, Nate, how do you ensure a representative swath across the voting public when many people today don't even pick up the phone ?0
Still, Indivudal-1 won the electi—er, Electoral College—and except for a couple of cities, the GOP maintains a stronghold on my entire state. No one talks about the President, I suspect the legions who live in Bobby Jindal territory secretly approve when they get to the voting machine.
17
@Stuart We don't pick up unsolicited phone calls on our land line because of all the spam calls we get. So I will probably never be polled for my opinion on anything.
6
Bizarre; the "president" tells more lies, incites racial violence, tells more lies, does his best to kill the economy, tells more lies, demonstrates his incompetence on a daily basis, tells more lies, and some Americans start to like him? Very sad.
26
@Joe Rock bottom
Can you give some examples of this. I believe everything that you have said applies to democrats. Just look at the violent mob harassing Sen. McConnel or Antifa or Black Lives Matter I could go on and on with examples. Lies? How about "If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor" On the economy Dems want to raise taxes as high as 70-90%. That will destroy the current great economy.
8
@Rick
Excuse me? Who exactly ants to raise taxes to 90%? Please enlighten us.
2
@Rick
First, it is Trump at his rallies that directly incites his mob. Secondly, Antifa is not Democratic and it's a world wide organization. Black Lives Matter is an organization that came about to protect young black men from unwarranted police violence, they are not politically affiliated, but I'm sure they would be more inclined to support Democrats who, at least, believe in and protecting civil rights.
And name me how many lives were killed and violence committed by these groups. Don't think they're listed as domestic terrorist. But White Nationalists who support Trump have committed violent acts and killing.
Trump's mob is Trump's mob, and if Republicans don't speak out, it will be the Republicans inciting mob violence.
Get out of your right wing bubble. Your talking points are the same exact points I've heard from the right-wing.
thank you Nate for this "heads-up".
4
Let’s be honest, it’s not just the stock market being up, that only appeases the wealthier among us; an awful lot of very progressive folks, myself included, are very tired of being dumped on just because we are white and male, like it or not white males are still a part of the citizenry, (and we’re not all jerks)not for long admittedly, as evidenced in California, Texas, Florida and Arizona America will soon no longer be considered a Eurocentric nation but for the time being I would suggest the Dems get back to the policies of FDR or at least temporarily ditch the neo liberal attitude of pandering to the upper 10%, it’s not working, America’s Middle Class needs good jobs brought home, better healthcare, more opportunities for those outside the Harvard, Stanford crowd and a lot less lecturing to over what is and isn’t politically correct, enough already.
26
@Ted, FDR, Teddy R and Lincoln are the best of our presidents. So I agree with you.
I don't know why some of the "good guys" among white males are so defensive. I don't hear or see a dump on any males; I do see the me-too movement as going to far (Al Franken anyone?), but that's sadly what we do...go from one extreme to another. It seems to have leveled off a bit. thankfully.
What I do see is a president who is vulgar, a liar, a racist utterly and dangerously ignorant and perhaps treasonous but defintely corrupt, which has nothing to do with with decent people at all.
And yes, we need good jobs (and a massive plan to retrain people whose jobs are not coming back), healthcare that is not a nightmare, and please bring back entry level and on the training jobs...we don't need a college degree for a lot of what I see. I see the Dems going there, for the most part.
I see Trump and the R's are taking us down.
And White Nationalists are just thugs and punks.
I don't see comprehensive immigration as something that demands cruelty and chaos ...same with sane gun laws/2nd Amendment. PC? It's nonsense, but civility isn't.
21
@Nancy G Thank you for your insight Nancy and I agree with your observations except for the “ Dems are going there , for the most part”. We have a funny way of showing it if we are “ going there” eg. Supporting jobs for those without advanced degrees etc. I don’t think Schultz, Bezos and Yang are great examples of job creators for the new millennia. Trump whether right or wrong is perceived as attempting to level the playing field via tariffs for American workers, tax cuts for the rich aside. There have been many arguments presented for getting tough and tariffs with respect to China from people much smarter than myself, but with Democrat’s it wasn’t until jobs requiring advanced degrees became threatened that they started paying attention, with the sole exception of Bernie, who everyone was quick to label a Socialist, when the biggest socialists around were at the fed, there to shovel money at banks, even going so far as to let well connected non banks convert to bank status so they might back their trucks up and load up with taxpayer dollars after they blew up the worlds economy, namely Goldman Sachs and AIG deemed too big too fail. The only real socialist in this country is the fed and bankruptcy laws who allows banks and billionaires to privatize the profit and socialize the debt: mega companies and developers like Trump walk from billions owed as little people have their checks garnished if they can’t repay credit card bills charging 35% interest, pathetic.
3
@Ted "very tired of being dumped on just because we are white and male." Poor guy. You've been "dumped on" for a whole year, so now you're ready to hand the keys over to a lunatic. You've probably also been thinking women and non-whites should just "get over it" anytime they complained about getting "dumped on" since the founding of this country.
6
The key here is peeling back the layer of pre-election polling. Many people told pollsters, dishonestly, they didn't like Trump because they feared it would make them seem stupid to admit it. But post-election, it became more socially tenable, at least in some circles, to voice support for Trump. If you look at the poll results from immediately after the election until today, they haven't appreciably shifted from a certain plus/minus range. All this really shows is Trump's proponents and opponents are equally dug in and, predictably, the tiny sliver of "moveable" voters, if they even exist in this climate, will decide the next election.
4
@Matt Peiken I think there is a lot to what you are saying. However, I don't think it is the whole thing. Trump was not viewed as a "credible" candidate with any chance of winning. Obviously, he was. He won. So I think a good fraction of that was a psychological shift. Some was what you are saying.
Also don't forget, a big part of the movable voters are those that didn't move to vote or move to not vote. With both Hillary and Trump being viewed terribly, a good number were moved to not vote or vote 3rd party.
If Trump is the sure loser and you hold a negative view of him, why not vote 3rd party or not at all to claim the moral high ground. I think (opinion based on typical behavior and there was nothing typical about the last election) there are far more people that A) preferred Trump over Hillary and thought Trump had no chance so they didn't vote their preference than B) preferred Hillary over Trump but didn't vote their preference. If the race was viewed as a dead heat, Trump would have benefited more than Hillary.
People that prefer sure losers are less likely to vote than those preferring sure winner. Obviously, the pollsters will still suffer their biases leading the assumptions used to estimate likely voters to reflect their personal preferences (they aren't immune to the reason we need double blind studies) and most will not prefer Trump. However, nobody will believe Trump is a sure loser. This will almost surely move more people in his favor than in 2016.
1
Other than a tax cut that did more for those who didn’t need it, delivering almost nothing promised and threats to blow up healthcare and voting rights for underclass citizens, what specifically has this president done for the economy that the economy couldn’t have done on its own?
18
@HANK: He bulled the Fed Chair to cut the bank lending rates which made him a lot of money on all of his loans. Does that count? I'm sure he'll continue to try and do that again.
2
"phone" and "online" polling?! I don't believe that results are unbiased. Heavy skewed by the selected population that responded to such poll requests. Who the heck still answers their land-line phone to pollers? Who the heck responds to an online poll request? Stupid gullible people, really stupid gullible people (many who support Trump).
8
Nice to see this article. The more I read about Trump in the New York Times the better I like him. Keep it up!
18
@Chris Anderson srsly
Whenever my liberal FB friends begin foaming at the mouth, spewing rabid hate, and acting unhinged; my inclination to vote for Trump gets so itchy and I don’t know if I can help myself.
I like all the crazy NYT and WaPO opinions, late night comedy nutty rants, and especially like to watch Avenatti, Lemon, Cooper, and Maddow weeping and melting into puddles of jelly on my TV. Who can give up that kind of entertainment and/or balanced news?
I can hardly wait to surf the networks during the impeachment debacles starring AOC, Omar, Pelosi, and Schumer. CNN is so unbiased and independent that I laugh at such a foolish idea. The more I hear about Russia interfering the better...three years was hardly enough...I could used five more!
25
The problem with this analysis is that it’s based on economic assumptions. The economy’s doing well so all’s right in the Republican world. The economy, which has been improving since the Obama recovery, plays little role in the trump popularity. It’s all about culture wars, religious extremism, and white supremacy.
8
@Harry -- Can't speak for the rest of the country, but the growing support for him in California has a great deal to do with the economy. Remember that each state has its own economy. And CA is the largest one and the one benefiting most from the boom. The rate of growth in the state GDP is around 10%, not 3.5. So Trump is becoming increasingly popular here.
7
This article is based on the premise that voters, without any propaganda, deemed Hillary Clinton unlikable and unpopular. On the contrary, this "unpopularity" was the result of manufactured consent, a process Noam Chomsky described. The mainstream media played a significant role in that process, and continues to do so when referring to Secretary Clinton's unpopularity. Even the con tinsel use of "Mrs." points during the campaign and after points to this. Quit blaming Trump's illegal win on Clinton or the Democrats. Examine your own role in the spread of misinformation and unwarranted attitudes. Ferret them out before claiming special knowledge and making prognostications.
22
Is amazing and frightening how well "hate" sells in America......
And Donald Trump seems to have refined the salesmanship of it.....
God forbid if he and his base are what we have or are becoming - the Founding Father's worst nightmare........
12
I don't know anyone who is favoring him now, but it sure ain't me!!
8
@Judy Fern I am
9
@Judy Fern -- Maybe that's because you're in New Jersey. If you got out of the northeast you'd meet plenty of people who like him. That's really the only area where he's unpopular.
10
When one looks at the Democratic alternative to President Trump - no wonder his approval ratings are up.
17
@Tessa At least there is not 1 Democratic candidate that wants to curb the freedom of the press, lock up children, close off trade with the world and praises bigotry and hate. Choses Russia over the USA and plays games with nukes
I want an American who believes in our Constitution as President not this vulgar unqualified disgusting example of a human
21
The same system that elected President Trump is the same system that elected Obama. That is democracy .
4
Trump is a disaster for the world that awaits us. The democrats or whoever need to highlight the problems we face- climate, insularity, warmongering, food shortages, medical care, the fate of SS, race, the economic insanity of tariffs. All of the useless competition between democrats fails to bring these issues to a public whose decisions appear to be based on sound bites and perceived personality sketches. Hard to believe trump has any approval without believing that the electorate is impossibility uninformed with tunnel vision of immense proportion.
14
Trump has 2020 in the bag. Remember, calling everyone a racist/deplorable was a losing strategy in 2016 and will be even more so in 2020.
How do I know? I will be voting for Trump after vehemently opposing him in 2016.
I will no longer vote Democrat, as they are no longer about democracy and fair laws, but overt cultural marxists. No thanks.
32
@Cookie Czar Could you explain just what "Marxist ideas you mean? If it's medicare for all then you don't realize that most of us pay for medicare with deductions from every paycheck you ever earn. Unless of course you earn over $220,000/yr then you don't pay anything after that benchmark.
Giving benefits to all in a society as rich as ours is not "Marxist" is humane.
If insisting that the laws of this country apply to everyone equally is Marxist, then I learned something today
16
I think fair laws is about not having Gerrymandering, not having people in the cabinet that supports Trump instead of democracy and fairness (left or right). I think fairness is to take responsibility for actions. I think fairness is to have reasonable immigration laws for legal immigrants of all countries and religions. Fairness is to have equal civil rights of all races and genders. Fairness is that the poor can afford to live in a house and have access to health care. There is a long way to fairness in the country right now...
5
Record low unemployment rates including minorities and women may not mean much to NY times, but to real people it does. You really have no idea what are the things most people care about.
23
Given that many votes count more than mine, it won’t be surprising to see him win. Besides living in a Plutocracy with all that voter suppression, we have a system in which some votes don’t actually count, and others count heavily. Dumb system.
11
The reason we have the system we have (thanks to the founders) is actually to guarantee that every state has a voice in the matter. Otherwise, it would be up to California and New York to choose the president every time because they have the most people.
15
@Switch McConnell, Every state already DOES have that voice. We already have that guarantee in the Senate, in which each state - Rhode Island and California, Wyoming and New York - and all the rest - each have 2 votes regardless of population size.
So why then have an Electoral College, a second counterbalance? The Electoral College was founded to protect the interests of the slave states, that's why.
Wherever someone lives, that PERSON's vote should count the same.
Why should the vote of someone in Montana count more than mine?
2
But the system doesn't quite work. How about the Democrats in the states of Texas and Georgia or the Republicans in Mass and California? There needs to be a better system to break states down to smaller regions.
2
I lost my mother a few months ago - she was 81.
I believe she would still be alive, but the trump thing upset her beyond description, adding head-shaking stresses to her fragile life at that age. She would pace half the night, emotionally distraught and unable to sleep, with an inability to resolve how any thoughtful person - and especially women of her generation - could possibly support such a mean-spirited and unqualified person. She was a late depression era born person who came of age politically with with Eisenhower and Kennedy, and was active in community-service most of her life. Even as a right leaning person in her younger years, I believe the character discrepancy was literally beyond her ability to reconcile.
I doubt she is the only senior to have suffered such profound personal torment over this national nightmare.
31
After watching the extreme positions of the Democratic candidates who want open borders, Medicare for all, including illegals, (and by the way, that means killing private union health insurance) Trump starts to look moderate!! Trump was a relative unknown- now he has given the American economy the lowest unemployment in 60 years, and the lowest Black & Hispanic unemployment EVER!! Why wouldn't his poll numbers go up? Immigration is becoming more important with the "invasion" of caravans of thousands of S. Americans. This is an importation of poverty that the USA can not afford, and that Liberal Americans see as adding to their voter rolls at American citizens expense! The majority of Americans still see Socialism as a dirty word and because of all these things, Trump will be re-elected in 2020!
23
@Lynn Medicare is socialism.
6
@Lynn Social security and interstate highways and the minimum wage and environmental laws are all socialism. And, thanks for continuing to lie about open borders. I remind you that Trump too wants to eliminate private health insurance - for anyone who loses their job or has a pre-existing condition for example. We can debate policy but I will never understand why conservatives can only use falsehoods to support their views. For the last time - as Forbes magazine has proven - TRUMP DID NOT "GIVE" US THE GOOD ECONOMY. THAT WAS OBAMA.
20
@Lynn What you say is frankly just not right No one supports open border. There needs to be well planned immigration laws for people passing the border where instead of cases just being ignored are dealt with. Asylum cases are just being put in lines for more than 6 years with no updates. Having a wall is not gonna save the country. Having proper laws will solve it and for some reason many Republicans have this misconception of having open borders. Additionally a lot of these people are escaping crime and violence. Let me assure you if people were as privilaged as me and you they will never in their lives decide to leave their homes and deal with the current government in the US. If any of these people are criminals then proper immigration laws will keep them out of the country.
3
Keep focusing on Russia: it’s working so well!
14
I guess we'll see how "smart" Americans really are in 2020.
5
What are they approving of? The economy is in shambles with Trump’s incompetent trade war policies. Diplomacy is nonexistent. Unemployment is down because people work multiple jobs to make ends meet and wages are stagnant. Trump foments racism, bigotry and xenophobia. He spews lies and misinformation daily. He can’t make speech. He inspires nothing. Putin and Kim play him for the narcissistic fool that he is, and how any woman could support this vulgar, sexually abusive two timing philanderer is astonishing. Then we have his insidiously insipid family. How can his approvals be going up?
30
@Allan J. Marcil
When you attack someone's family as being "insidiously insipid" you inspire readers to ignore the rest of your comment.
That is, if they read beyond "the economy is in shambles."
7
I voted for Clinton in 2016. I was going to vote Democrat, no matter who the candidate was, UNTIL the shootings, and the vileness and utter discombobulated reactions coming from both the Democrat candidates and media like CNN and MSNBC have given me pause and convinced me to turn to Trump. I even started watching Fox because I can't take the "everyone is racist" mentality anymore.
28
@Switch McConnell, So, racist- motivated shootings lead you to deny that racism is a problem in this country?
And Trump's racist rhetoric - echoed by several of these mass murderers the last few years - convince you to turn to Trump?
So calling someone racist when they clearly are is worse than that person actually BEING racist - and committing mass murder motivated by that racism?
And calling Trump racist when he's shown by his own words and actions that he is, is worse than the fact that our President IS a racist and says vile things that incite mobs at his rallies - and smiles when some call for shooting immigrants?
You're OK with all this, but not using the word "racist" when it fits?
4
1. No
2. No
3. No
4. Definitely No.
5. Yes. When it fits.
3
The Trump vote in 2020 will be one of the best indicators of how many a-holes and bigots there are in the country, full stop. They may be sotto voce bigots, or loud-n-proud racists -- but it's impossible to separate that bigotry from the Trump vote. Whether our country progresses or collapses backward into outright despotism will hinge on that vote.
10
We're in a TV era, and have been there for a long time. JFK to Reagan to The Orange One. The Dems need a TV ace who can do the TV dance. My vote is for Oprah and Geo Clooney, because anything less will assure four more years of you know who. As loathsome as Donald is you have to admit that he has a certain amount of feral charisma and devil-may-care appeal. He's a kind of idiot savant of contemporary politics. His crudeness and ignorance will appeal to the millions who are just like him. Americans by and large live outside of rational debates. Sad, I know. They want professional wrestling. Policy wonkishness as portrayed by Warrren and Bernie just is flat out a no sale. If the Dems don't step up and meet Donald, toe-to-toe...mano-to-mano they'll be Hillary Part 2. It will take a lot to get DT out of the white house and I doubt the current class of drones is up to the task.
8
There's a moral vacuum in the country and it lives in the White House.
Anytime I happen to listen to clips of what Mr. Trump says, I am struck with the Middle School punk that comes through. If my kids talked like that, there would be consequences.
But then, I'm not a Fox News viewer. I'm not an Evangelical. I'm not a gun owner. I'm just one of many who wonder how Trump got here...and why. Maybe the Republicans can explain what I find unforgiveable and disgraceful.
What I am is sick at heart for the country, for my kids and my grandkids.
20
@Nancy G nothing to wonder about. We the silent majority stood up and told all the rest ofyou that we are tired of your ideals and beliefs.
5
This is exactly what Normalizing means.
The most catastrophic damage to any society.
13
While I voted for Obama in 2012, Trump got my vote in 2016:
1.I was concerned that the political establishment had been rendered dysfunctional by and entangled with special interest groups and de facto "gentlemen's agreements" between the 2 parties vis a vis what issues were "third rail"( i.e., immigration, climate change, China trade, North Korea, etc) such that the pressing issues of our time were not being adequately addressed ; 2. I was tired of being told how to think by the MSM( and its arrogant, king-making, gotcha-ya sense of entitlement), the PC cult, the polls, etc. all of which were inhibiting frank political discourse.
Along came Trump who promised to take these on plus I liked his economic policies. Up until then, I had despaired that we'd be constrained forever by "politics as usual". So far, he has put issues in play, grown the economy and has otherwise exceeded my expectations and will get my vote again. Of course, he lacks the style and likeability of past politicians but look what that got us(i.e., nowhere), therefore, it's refreshing to see Trump calling folks out( particularly our feckless legislators and the entitled MSM), stirring up debate etc. So for those of you with TDS, bring it on; Trump and his supporters welcome your hatred! Meanwhile America, get over it and take your medicine; we've needed this for a long time.
23
@pete I'm on your side. We've needed this for a long time.
8
@pete I find nothing coming from Trump refreshing but rather disturbing.
8
@pete Can you show us how trump has stopped the dysfuction? The fact that our farmers are starving, no new factories are being built in the mid west and we are being threaten by Nukes from North Korea I fail to see it.
Of course if you mean crooked rich white men will still get all the percs then trump is your man for sure
10
The blatant bias of the media, including the utterly negative presidential coverage by the New York Times, has helped drive the president further into the arms of many. If Trump wins again in 2020 it will have been partially helped by the very media coverage designed to malign him completely.
23
I don't believe in polling, the last election took care of that for me, and I cannot possibly fathom that enough Americans would want four more years of this. Trump was merely an unhinged buffoon back in 2016, he's far more dangerous now that he sits on his Republican throne. He's set the "dark forces" in motion with these racist fearful rants, and good job numbers won't ever be enough.
10
@T. Giarratano You're living in bubble in NYC. It's just not the same as the rest of the country. The DNC has taken extreme positions and they aren't widely accepted.
14
Does anyone else feel like someone in prison who has to choose between skinheads, the Mexican mafia, or the Crips?
9
Trump in just a neo-Nero, happily fiddling as America burns. I have believed ever since his election that he is merely the visible manifestation of a cancer that has been eating away at our society for generations. It is not so much a question of can we survive Trump, rather can we survive the hate and division consuming us as a nation.
18
Just looking at the title of this article, I know this is dubious news.
The NYT has an algorithm of 2 steps forward, then 2 steps back when it comes to reporting on Trump. He did not win the popular vote. Everyone needs to be getting non registered voters registered in record numbers, to vote this being out of office. Don't be wringing your hands, knock on doors, have conversations, bring people to the polls.
9
I'm a 50-something, financially secure white guy. Even if Trump is reelected I'll be fine and things will hold together as long as I need them to. Yet I'm strongly motivated to help see that he's swept into history's dustbin where he belongs.
It baffles me that young voters - and their children - who'll suffer the consequences of the cultural, environmental and financial destruction of this country at the hands of republicans are not sufficiently motivated to kick Donald Trump to the proverbial curb.
Not long ago, when some toxic despot would take control of a country we'd say, "If only those poor people had open, free elections like WE do."
30
@Mike from NYC you are absolutely right about the connection between the economy and the presidential rating. I was surprised that the gas price was less than $2.40/gallon. I drive a small Mitsu Mirage and I would not care if the price was $3.40/gallon in fact I would welcome an additional dollar per gallon to be set aside to fight climate change but I am just a tiny minority. Most people around me filling gas had 3-5 times bigger gas tanks to fill and I would not be surprised if they were not happy that the gas prices were so low so that they could keep filling their gas guzzlers.
I am not sure whether Trump deserves the entire credit for the excellent state of the union (SoU) and best in history but when individual Americans are happy with their own situation and compare it to the situation when Trump was not the president it is hard not to be fair to the president and give him some credit. Part of the current SoU is also due to what Trump has not done. He said he will not tinker with social security and medicare and he has so far not done that. He said he will not start any new regime change wars and he has so far not done that. He said he will not raise taxes and he has not done that although consumers are facing higher prices of non essential goods due to the trade war. Both these issues have probably contributed to higher Trump favorability. I also think that Americans have had a higher chance of looking at the possible alternatives like Biden and it is very scary.
8
@Girish Kotwal
Actually he deserves next to none of the credit for where the economy is today.
It was the last guy, who took over on day 1 when we were in a full-blown financial and economic meltdown, and managed to pull us back from the brink and get growth up and unemployment down (despite a do-nothing GOP Congress for his last 6 years)
Funny how everyone forgets that guy.
15
@Mike that's why all of trump's financial figures are leaps and bounds better than Obama's. Trump helps while Obama just divided
3
I guess this really IS who we are. Perhaps the Democrats need to stop believing that the people of this country are anything but venal, greedy, petty sociopaths and come up with a different plan.
18
It is scary that half of the country is racist. Who supports one openly or just on the ballot is one. That is the naked truth no matter if a racist does something good for the country. No sugarcoating or if the media is biased towards Democrats. I hope the media stays biased that way and don’t give racists (now equal with Republicans) a speaking voice.
5
@Ralf. The media forms our opinions. Stop listening
4
people read today's front page story about declining food production from climate change will lead to enormous waves of migration and then they look at Democrats united in free services for illegal aliens, and no such thing as illegal immigration,
then you may understand how could people support Trump
I do not but the alternative at the moment is what? Open Borders are not going to work in this new climate changed world
12
@Zenster
Cite and quote the nominee who calls for ¨open borders¨ and ¨no such thing as illegal immigration.¨
Enlighten us all, please.
8
@Sprogita
Every Democrat raised their hand for
1 free health care for illegal immigrants
2 decriminalized immigration
At the first debate
8
I see the Russians are at it again!
10
@ghm
Either that or all these 'I don't mind the Fascism as long as I can afford that 60" flatscreen' comments are real.
Either way, it's frightening.
6
If Democrats are perceived as the party that wants to give away freebies to everyone we are, God forbid, going to be subjected to 4 more years of this man. It should be a relatively easy matter to unseat this man - he’s awful- but Democrats seem intent on shooting themselves in the foot.
Perhaps I can understand those who support Trump because they want a Republican in office, any Republican, who will change the composition of the courts. Perhaps I can understand those who support Trump because he is lining their pockets (see tax bill). I cannot understand those who sincerely believe he is doing a good job. A president who separates parents & children? A president who calls people “jerks” and “losers”? A race baiter? And on and on. Are you serious?
15
@Ray Lambert he's got my vote, again
7
As abrasive as he is he still gets the job done.
18
@MIKEinNYC
To be more accurate, he has managed not to ruin the job that Obama got done, economically speaking.
5
@MIKEinNYC Say more. And I'm not at all picking a fight. Just curios how you assess "job done".
2
@MIKEinNYC and what job is that? Making sure those who are the wealthiest retain their wealth? Yes, he's doing that. I would think that getting the job done would mean that a leader makes sure that they try to keep a country united, safe and healthy and invests in healthcare, education and human rights. On all of the most important fronts, he fails miserably. Americans need to have higher expectations of their president. The bar couldn't get any lower.
9
I fear for my country. As Trump becomes more and more egregious in his hatred, is divisiveness and his overt racism, he picks up support? What is wrong? Can't people see the quality of the jobs that are being created is lower than in the past, or are they just seeing the gross number and celebrating that? And if that is true, is it not at least the fault of the media for not presenting the reality better?
18
Telephone polls? Landline telephones, I assume? Isn’t that already a skewed demographic? Who has landline telephones anymore? No one under 55.
12
@Kai All of the major polling companies are and have been for the past decade at least, trying to do their best to reach consumers in multiple ways while still maintaining randomness. They also weigh their results against the general population demographics (another reason why the Census is not something to mess with). It is not an easy task, but trust that there are many people studying this daily. It is not to anyone's advantage, the pollsters, their clients, etc. to not be as representative as possible. They simply wouldn't stay in business if they didn't try.
I like how the 538 website rates the polling companies. What we really need to keep our eye on are biased pollsters - those hired by one side or the other to conduct a poll for the sole purpose of giving the client talking points. Happens in business and politics all the time. 538 sorts through all that.
3
@Kai
Agreed. I never answer calls from unknown numbers on my cell phone or my landline. I only keep a landline so I can use it to locate my cell phone. I suspect 80% of the population behaves the same way.
2
@Sprogita
“ I only keep a landline so I can use it to locate my cell phone” ... you made me chuckle!
We have ‘no mo robo’ installed on our landline which screens out most solicitations and we never answer any calls from “anonymous”.
Rather than rehash 2016 I am looking more at the mid terms -turn out surged, new voters showed up, and more women ran for office and won.
Have worked on lots of campaigns. Call me a perpetual optimist but I think people now finally realize what the consequences can be when you sit it out.
I 2016 I didn't fully trust his promises to cut regulations or nominate sane judges. I was more anti-Hillary than pro-Trump, but he's proven himself and I couldn't be more supportive now. Well, yes I could; I wish he were a small-government tightwad on spending, but baby-steps, baby steps.
Pointing out the overwhelmingly Leftist bias of the MSM has also been helpful, although I question the judgment of anyone that didn't know it pre-Trump. Nice to have it spelled out for anyone not paying attention, though.
12
Trump's favorability rating obviously jumped up when he was elected and has not really changed since. That is, people are not thinking better of him because of anything he has done, or what they have learned about him personally. This is not surprising, as people's opinions are highly dependent on those of others - if he got elected President, some low-information people would assume that there must be something good about him. But Trump's personal character was well known to most people before the election. He actually seems bent on fulfilling his promises with respect to immigration, in contrast to promises about economic matters. It would be a big mistake for Democrats to think that they could change many people's minds about Trump based on character issues, or the Russia interference matter, or immigration (insofar as putting people in cages and other measures have not done so already). Economic issues is where Trump has flip-flopped and what appears to have been the main difference in 2018.
3
I'm hoping there comes a time when voters simply want the noise to stop. When you live right next to the circus, at first it's fun. But when the elephant keeps trumpeting randomly and the sideshow music blares without warning it wears thin.
14
Trump has an opponent in the Republican primaries, William Weld. Yet Weld has hardly been mentioned in any of the media and no polls have been done that I can find that show how he stacks up against Trump.
This media bias in not covering Weld in any way, shape or form is a big plus for the Trump campaign.
Much of the reason that Trump won the Republican nomination in 2016 was due to him getting some 80% of the media coverage. His outrageous act sold viewership/readership for the media on the right, left and center. For a candidate, such over-the-top coverage in a crowded primary field is pure gold.
Media, how about we at least let America know that Trump has an opponent in the Republican Party? Then voters can decide which candidate they prefer. Enough with the de facto media blackout of Governor Weld's campaign.
23
@Chris. He has no opponent. None. Zip. Get real.
6
@Wolford
We aren't living in a Soviet dictatorship. That's for the voters to decide.
1
The one crucial point that Cohn (nor many other polling analysts) doesn't touch on here is one polling truism: a good economy that's getting better, albeit slowly and not for everyone, automatically builds in a baseline level of support for any President, and also for his party.
With unemployment below 4%, wages slowly rising, inflation all but non-existent, and consumer sentiment at over 98, any 'normal' president should have job approval numbers well north of 50%
As long as the average voter is working and can pay their bills without too much belt-tightening, President bowl of Guacamole could get a decent job approval rating.
A classic case in point: In early 1973 Nixon's job approval was over 50%, even hitting 68% in February of that year. After that his numbers steadily declined, eventually tanking to around 25% in 1974 until his resignation. Most political analysts cite this as evidence that the public had turned against him because of Watergate. While this is certainly partially true, they ignore the fact that in late 1973 the OPEC oil embargo began, eventually raising oil prices by 400%. In early 1974 inflation was at 7% and rising rapidly and unemployment was on the upswing as well, hitting 5% and more.
If Nixon had economic numbers like trump does today, not to mention a propaganda operation disguised as a TV news network, it's almost certain that his approval ratings would've been much higher. And who knows, maybe he would've weathered 2 more years of scandal.
18
@Mike It's hard for me to accept the fact that if the economy is doing better, somehow people attribute this to Trump. It's even harder for me to accept that if the economy s up and unemployment down, how people cannot embrace this good fortune and at the same time see Trump for what he is and not reject him in total disgust. I just don't get it.
4
@styleman
I don't either, but this has been borne out in polling and even election results (including midterms) for decade after decade.
2
Democrats must retain control of the House in 2020 at all costs. Without it, there will be no counter to Trump if he wins.
Also, Dems must pick up Senate seats, if possible, and not lose any.
Also, more Dem governors are needed.
Finally, states must protect themselves from Trump, as California is trying to do.
22
@J. Swift Democrats are the Looney bin. Free free free stuff. Health care for illegals , reparations, school loans. You will not win with a message like that.
10
The fractious Democratic TV debates are providing talking points for Trump.
Waiting for Trump to make a mistake that will hurt his chances won't work. He makes mistakes all the time and it doesn't hurt at all.
It is time now for the Democrats to look at the polls, talk to the experts, contact the delegates and converge on the candidates for Pres and VP. Then all the others get behind the party wagon and push.
31
@Mike: The "fractious" Democratic TV debates are less contentious than the Republican debates in 2016 and yet the Republican's got a winning candidate out of those. I don't think that contention among Democratic candidates in these debates will help the Republicans much because the criticisms that the candidates level at one another are all to the left of where Trump will run. Trump will certainly attempt to label any Democratic candidate as a "socialist" and he's unlikely to attack any of the more moderate candidates as being insufficiently progressive.
Please also bear in mind that we have not had a single primary election yet. It's way too soon to converge on a candidate. Many Democrats were upset that the nomination process was not sufficiently open in 2016. We need to let the process play out in 2020. We need to hear from the voters. It is their prerogative to choose the candidate. And I am confident that they will choose the best candidate to run against Trump. And I don't think we know yet who that will be.
3
@Mike
Right;
And maybe the others should run for open Senate positions: THAT is were we need qualified democrats.
w/o a democratic senate NOTHING will change.....
1
@Stan Sutton
Exactly. People forget the GOP field had 18 candidates, and the debates were typical Republican foreign policy bluster combined with supply-side economic voodoo. The lone exception was the man-child carnival barker spouting faux economic populism (stolen from Sanders, imo) that he had no intention of following up on. Everyone remembers "getting those hedge fund guys to pay their fair share" right? How did that one work out.
1
Aww polls shmoles it boils down to likable candidates and the best of two evils. Trump is candid and rejects PC and a lot of people like that. The dems have once again produced a stinker of a candidate. And they will lose regardless how much time left spins everything Trump does. In fact I think most are catching on of how the press is trying to manipulate the election much like the Russians. Think about that one!
34
@J Clark So you admit the Russians put him in. Thanks for your honesty.
1
@J Clark
The dems still have over a dozen people contending to be the presidential candidate. Who is this "stinker of a candidate" you speak of?
2
@J Clark
Re: " The dems have once again produced a stinker of a candidate."
If you mean Biden, I agree.
Biden is a throwback. Should the Democrats run him, it would prove that four years of Trump shock therapy isn't enough.
1
Comments reflect people who mostly seem to have not actually listened to his supporters. They recoil at what they see as a constant barrage of attacks on Trump regardless of his actions, along with the ascendancy of the AOC extremist wing.
Take the reaction to his condemnation of hate and white supremacy yesterday. He specifically did what they said he would not. Instead of seizing the opportunity to credit him and try to negotiate gun measures, they immediately went into attack mode, even blaming him for the carnage, putting him on the defensive and greatly reducing the odds of any cooperation on guns. MSNBC and CNN have lost their minds, have future blood on THEIR hands, and thus to his supporters Trump looks reasonable by comparison. I'm a liberal btw.
72
@Keith. The President sets the moral tone of a Democracy. We have a President whose every statement is negative, and most of what he says is not true. It is difficult to ‘ Call Out’ the irrational, hateful, rhetoric of a man who has the ability to expose his intolerant, hostile, egocentricity however often he chooses. MSNBC and CNN are not the enemy. What they are just beginning to expose is difficult, even frightening to hear, but they are exposing factual rhetoric and behavior. It is easier to call them names, than to open ones eyes and deal with the reality Trump has imposed upon us.
4
@Keith I will not credit Trump for his dull reading of a few scripted words that are at odds with the bigotry and hate he regularly serves up to his supporters with gusto and energy at his rallies. Nor will I credit him for uttering some vague words about gun safety. After Parkland, he met with victims and legislators and promised action. He even had the gall to lecture members of Congress, boasting that unlike them, he wasn't afraid to take on the NRA. Then he met with the NRA, caved to their demands, and did nothing. You say Trump should be given credit for reading a script. Let Trump change the tone of his rallies and actually get behind gun safety legislation, then he will deserve credit.
7
@Keith, I will believe Trump when his actual real life actions follow his scripted words and, for at least 48 consecutive hours, he expresses the sentiments of that script extemporaneously instead of reverting to hatred and extremism.
That said, I am getting very tired of the torrent of verbiage about all things Trump that CNN and MSNBC are spewing. As allegedly news stations, isn't there more news then just Trump's latest abominations? Several topics come to mind immediately, like climate change, election fraud and Russian interference, and our deteriorating international relations. Coverwhy nothing is being done about any of them by Trump's fetid appointees. There are some real issues Democrats can run on and win (if they get their messaging right).
6
All the more reason the Democrats MUST run a moderate to capture the independent voter.
Those embracing the Medicare -for-All bandwagon are embracing a losing proposition. I question whether many even understand Sanders's genesis of the idea. This is NOT traditional/original MEDICARE applied to all in the US. It is single payer health care with the Medicare name.
This absolutely is a non-starter and WILL lose the Democrats
the election.
While Mr. Biden's proposal on health care is an addition of a public option to coverage under the ACA-so not single payer for many who will retain individual or employer policies-it is a SIGNIFICANT step in the right direction to UNIVERSAL COVERAGE . It is the piece of the ACA proposal that was lost when Mr. Obama took a year and a half to obtain "buy in" and do "consultation"with stakeholders and squandered the only time the Dems controlled House and Senate in his administration. After that the ACA was vilified and continues to be vilified.
Remember it is the ACA that protects coverage of preexisting conditions, it is the ACA that authorized expanded Medicaid--BOTH of which provide benefits for many Trump supporters.
Hit the Trump supporters and independents hard on healthcare--what ACA has done and build on it. Nurture the independents.
Polls indicate that only Mr. Biden will garner enough independents to beat Trump. Trump's approval rating may rise but the key to the election is the independent voter!
19
@human being I agree. The fact that grumpy old Bernie (and Elizabeth Warren) is pushing some socialist, utopian dream at a time of our current national crisis is singularly obtuse and horrible timing. These are not normal times. We need a candidate that can appeal to the widest range of voters, not just the "progressive" Left Wing on the East and West Coasts.
2
and probably lose their own base!
2
@human beingMr Biden will not last for a full year. Sorry. He will gaffe his way out. Why no OBAMA endorsement ??? That's strange, doncha think?
1
Opening the borders, outlawing private insurance, and promising free health care to everyone who pours into the country puts American citizens, many of whom are already struggling, in direct competition with an infinite number of people to meet their basic needs and the needs of their families. Democrats simply do not represent American citizens. They abhor them and believe everything every American has ever worked for should be redistributed to foreigners. They're unelectable.
74
@Davis. Nice Republican talking points. Except no one wants “open” borders, not even Democrats. And I love how you say “outlaw” private insurance, rather than replace it with something much better (if a Democrat wins, it will be a combination of private and public, anyway). And no one is promising “free” healthcare to anyone, at least no more than what we do now which is expensive emergency room care for poor people.
“Pouring” into the country? The numbers don’t support that. It’s harder to get in than it has been, and “pouring” promotes the ridiculously erroneous “invasion” idea. There’s a crisis at the border, all right, and it’s a humanitarian one. Separating young children from parents and then putting them in detention camps with armed guards—whose idea was that? Oh, yeah.
88
@Davis Democrats won the popular vote. They control the House of Representatives. They represent all Americans, not just the pale skinned MAGA hat wearers.
3
@Jordan F I'm a Democrat but Davis is right. "Outlaw" or "Replace" - however you say it the result is the same. Utter electoral suicide and defeat. It was on that issue alone that I wrote off Sanders and Warren.
8
This is not surprising. Objectively, everything Trump has done or tried has been roundly criticized and told it won't work by the pundits and "experts." And yet...he has acted boldly and Americans appreciate that. Trump is the first President to take on China, which was long overdue, as previous Presidents were too afraid to "rock the boat." Trump has avoided new wars, reduced our involvement in the middle east, and -- to the chagrin of experts who hated his approach to North Korea -- opened a dialog (of sorts) and reduced the likelihood of war on the Korean peninsula. Experts predicted the economy would tank under Trump, and that has not happened. The "political correctness" and "identity politics" crowd of Dems has exuded constant Outrage, while many Americans have applauded his willingness to go against the PC dictates. I hate his fiscal and environmental policies, but I think he's right on China and foreign wars (avoiding them). Dems appear poised to again steal defeat from the jaws of victory by endorsing Open Borders. I know that it is anathema to NY Times readers to say anything positive about Trump, but it is precisely that lack of objectivity that will lose the election again.
66
@Unconventional Liberal I can't imagine where you're getting these "facts." You couldn't be more wrong about all of it.
33
@Unconventional Liberal He has been sending troops to help the Saudi's in Yemen so he is NOT bring our troops home. That is just another LIE that Fox news has mamaged to get you to believe.
The economy isl begining to fall as his "genius" economic plans come into play. The tax cut gave a huge push to the economy but it short term The consequences of his trade wars with almost all the countries in the world are beginning to drive up prices much faster than wages. Good paying US jobs are starting to go as overseas markets are closed to us due to tariffs. He is trying to hide this by devalueing the dollar but again this is a short term answer to mask the true disaster that awaits us
2
@Melswhat did they say that was inaccurate? Sorry, Trump gets my vote
4
This is not that surprising considering the policy positions of the Democratic candidates - student loan forgiveness, outlawing employer provided health insurance, tax payer funded programs for illegal immigrants and open borders. If the economy holds up, and it will -Trump will make sure it will in time for the election, Trump will be re-elected. And it will all be on the Democrats for not paying attention to the viability of the candidates for the general election and the electoral college. That Upshot article on how Trump may win with even more electoral college votes should have been a wake up call.
69
@Chatte Cannelle
Absolutely. Decriminalizing illegal border crossings, providing tax payer funded healthcare for illegal immigrants, and removing private healthcare insurance are losing positions (even the U.K. has a robust private health insurance market!!!).
And when I say losing, I mean really losing. Like McGovern losing.
52
@Chatte Cannelle Let's correct your mistatements of fact. What's wrong with student loan forgiveness if it lets young people move to the best job they can get, let's them start a household, buy a car--in short, help the economy. Why punish kids who had to take out loans to afford tuition as if they are deadbeats? Some candidates argue for Medicare for All to replace employer based health insurance. There is no good reason for employers to have to pay for health care. And employers are limiting choice every year. Maybe you get two plans to pick. And then you have to sign up for fitness class! No Democrat is calling for open borders. None. Lastly, I admire the clarity of your crystal ball regarding the economy. I hope it holds up, I really do. But nothing Trump is doing is helping. Trade wars and tariffs hurt the US economy far more than China. Because while we "fight" other countries are moving in to supply grain and manufactured goods. The world doesn't stand still. It finds other markets and other sources of supply. You are correct about the Electoral College. That is the only path for Trump to be re-elected.
21
@Will. Not health care for illegals? What are they supposed to do, drop dead at your feet? Bleed to death in car accidents? Give birth in doorways? Some of the people in this country have no heart at all.
14
We’re at a tipping point where immorality, narcissism, and raw ignorance are ruling the day. It’s as if nearly half the country watched “It’s a Wonderful Life” and said, “Yeah, we’ll take Potterville.”
21
@Jay We were at the tipping point when Bill Clinton was allowed to remain in office after lying about taking advantage of a star struck intern, when Grand Theft Auto was allowed to include murder and rape, when Tarantino films weren’t given X ratings, when Jay-Z wasn’t arrested for beating up women, when a porn star was given her own television show, when taxpayers were forced to pay for the reckless greed of the big banks and the only people who went to jail were the borrowers, and on and on. We’ve all been complicit one way or another in allowing so many to get away with so much. Have you looked at Facebook today or bought anything on Amazon?
5
@DB you hit the nail on the head. Great post
2
If anyone listened to the brilliant speech by Joe Biden today and compares his view of the U.S. to Trump's continual degradation of others, complete narcissism, and racist slurs, and still thinks Trump should have four more years of ruining this country, then I have no hope left. I worry for my grandchildren.
21
When media and politicians engage the vitriol too much and demonize an opponent, you risk creating sympathy for the villain. Psychology 101 and it will ALWAYS work. Get with the program NYT and dems, or we will be stuck with another 4 years,
15
@Someone
Oh, so we just shut up and not call out the president for his racism?!
Sorry, but the future of the country and its people is at stake. A mass movement fueled by outspoken, emotional take-downs of the president and his pro-gun, incitement to violence, White Supremacy, and racist vitriol is absolutely needed. We can no longer afford to stand by complacently.
We need to speak out and actively donate, campaign, volunteer, and work with others.
As Burke once said:
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing."
Or, as Mother Jones said:
“Don’t mourn. Organize!”
(Note: Of course, in the current context, we need to mourn and then organize!)
1
@Someone Are you talking about Trump? Because that's what he does, every single day.
1
So maybe we deserve four more years of Trump after all.
2
@Andrew Zuckerman
You say deserve, I say need
6
Trump is the same old partying boy he has always been. Turn up the volume and let's forget the world in all our pleasures.
3
And the Dems are pushing the most Left agenda they can dream up. Genius.
16
@Blair
“The most left”?!
The moats progressive thing that any Democrat is calling for is universal health care, which all advanced democracies already have! It’s also something that has been in the UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights for 70 years!
Hardly radical; hardly far left.
Indeed, the Democrats will only win by pushing progressive, pro-working class policies. But those, too, are simply good old-fashioned New Deal programs, liberalism, not of the Far Left at all!
4
Millions of Americans who once had enough fear to hide their racism no longer feel they need to do so.
14
Online polls? When did online polls become statistically meaningful? (For that matter, even polls based on phone calls aren't meaningful if those calls are made exclusively to landline phones; the "landline demo" isn't remotely representative of the country as a whole). By not bothering to tell us how the polls he's cherry-picked were conducted, all Nate Cohn has done is add to the endless stream of click-bait that masquerades as news.
6
I recently for the first time helped campaign for a local democrat the month before our local primaries here in Manhattan NYC. I was on the street handing out literature for a few weeks. I was startled and dismayed at how many Trump supporters there were.
What was also notable were how many of the responses I received were animated, rude and sarcastic, after my asking if one was a democrat residing in the neighborhood
My friend who has done this kind of work for years says she never seen anything like it. In the past when she would ask that question... she would just receive a simple no. On rare occasions would anyone make a sarcastic editorial comment in response.
Based on my few weeks on the street here in NYC... I fear he’s a shoe in for the 2020 election.
3
Haven’t we learned that the polling industry, which totally misled us on the possibility of Trump getting elected in 2016, has some serious credibility problems?
14
Telephone polls need to stop being considered the gold standard. People don't answer the phone anymore. Isn't this what lead us astray last time?
8
Yes, and it kind of makes you wonder who it is that DOES answer the phone when an unknown caller is calling?? Just who is answering these questions?
1
trump's national approval rating means little. His approval rating in the states he needs to reach 270 electorally is all that really matters. That he will lose in 2020 is becoming more and more probable. The size of his loss is of much import. This country needs to send a message with its turnout against trump that we overwhelmingly reject him and his brand of hate filled politic.
14
Before Donald Trump declared his candidacy to run for president he mentioned that he will crack down on illegal immigration. This was the first time I also heard any candidate was ready to tackle the situation. I was actually happy to hear it.
I did not like the man, I endorsed the issue. I didn't vote for him. I am profoundly disappointed by my Democratic Party which talks a lot and does nothing. Immigration has been on the mind of the lot of people for at least the last two decades . No one dared to speak up.
Even then I thought it was more of an invasion. Everywhere I looked around Mexicans were everywhere in almost every state I visited. How did that happen? This is not the America I remember from the seventies. I didn't like the picture knowing that these people were here totally undocumented. It looked to me liked an invasion and more so now. Trump did not create this problem, he inherited it. Let's call a spade a spade.
Pushing emotion buttons by the Democrats has being extremely annoying to me. Where are the solutions? They have none! I registered as an independent and vote on the issues not the party. The choice in the next election is in the hand of Independents who can tilt the scale in which ever direction they want it to go. I can almost guarantee that it's not going to be Democrat.
15
@JG- The illegals that you speak of--whether they're from Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala and even from Europe--come here mainly for economic opportunities. These opportunities have ebbed and flowed depending on the economy and our demand for their services.
It is easy to forget how many politicians and business people have used and abused these "invaders" without a problem when they needed domestic workers, landscaping or any other form of labor done.
But, it now seems that they're a liability... Must be the "fake economy" as many of them have self deported themselves.
I could definitely see Trump winning again. The GOP is amazingly good at exciting their followers by, for example, elevating the "Squad" (a few very junior Congresswomen) to represent the whole Democratic party. The rich Republicans that vote for Trump because they need still another tax cut should be ashamed of themselves. But I'm sure that many of these individuals won't admit doing so in public, they will just quietly vote for him and then try to forget about their amoral choice. The question, though, is what the economy will look like in November 2020. The members of the media that mindlessly buy the Trump line about the so-called booming economy do not seem to have noticed that it's only okay, is reliant on lower quality gig jobs , and may weaken further.
6
I have to agree with the article and many of the comments: Mr. Trump is, personally, a vile man. He has traits that, if someone said that I was similar, I would be deeply ashamed.
Having said that, I will repeat that I did not vote for him because he was a sterling human being. I voted for him to lead us economically and to do what he promised.
In both spheres he is doing just that. I did not vote for him to be a friend. I voted for him to be President and make good decisions.
11
@Bill Good decisions!! Name one. Just one. Every decision he makes becomes a catastrophe: the border, the economy, diplomacy, trade... and then throw in the racism, sexism, jingoism and xenophobia and murder he foments and that spells Loser.
3
Notably, though, he is the only president since before Roosevelt who has never seen popularity number above 50%, according to 538.
3
I believe it. I just don’t get it. I never will.
7
r am white, age 69, a veteran, a retired military and airline pilot, a grandfather of two, and someone who has worked since age 12 mowing lawns and delivering papers to fund future goals. I cover my heart when the National Anthem is played and when our flag passes by. Like my father, I vote “for the man” (which now includes “woman”) rather than for any party. I do not consider myself a White Supremist or a White Nationalist, but I do consider myself a patriot, and I am concerned that someday soon an agitated confused leftist is going to mistake me for someone who doesn’t fit into his narrative. If or when that day ever comes, I intend to stand my ground. If the election were held today, I’d vote for Donald Trump mainly because all the Democratic candidates want to move the country toward socialism, which is the first step toward communism, the ultimate political goal of the left. The country can withstand another four years of Donald Trump, but it cannot withstand becoming socialist and still be called America.
20
@John Yes! Well-said.
4
@John of Denver. Can I assume you object to your socialist Medicare and Social Security benefits?
4
@John Social Security and Medicare were both decried by Republicans as Sociailism! Assume you object to taking Social Security and the government providing or paying for your medical care in retirement through Medicare or VA benefits, as that would be inconsistent with your definition of America.
4
I have to comment, because his re-election appears
not improbable.
Perhaps djt is not as disliked more than in 2016, and
he has apparently more admirers too as the writer
explains.
New York magazine’s Andrew Sullivan, who previously
edited The New Republic, coincidently, has written a
fascinating article putting The Donald into the Roman Empire.
Sullivan claims the Executive Branch of the USA
enjoys more power than Roman Emperors.
He claims the USA is crumbling/falling.
I am not distorting, while I wish I were exaggerating.
3
Trump "has a distasteful air about him from time to time." To say that is an understatement for the ages is an understatement.
8
@Ida
But couldn't this be said about most politician?
3
I remember watching the polls (mostly your compilations) favoring Clinton up to and including election night. I watched them evaporate as the results came in. I am supposed to believe your numbers now. Hmm...think again. Get to work America on the ground to convince as many as you can where America is going with four more years.
5
Trump will be re-elected. He has my vote.
13
"Hillary Clinton was an unusually unpopular candidate"
Which has always been a profound mystery---I suppose Russia's dislike for her and her delivery of Obama's sanctions had nothing to do with it?
The GOP's fear mongering?
Alien babies and pizza?
Hillary was attacked like no other candidate in our history---with a lot of very extensive foreign help.
12
@SAJP Hillary Clinton's approval rating peaked at 67% when she was secretary of state. What happened when she ran for president? I think your post explains what happened.
8
@SAJP it was what she projected herself. Her smugness turned me off, and I had been a longtime supporter. Smugness and disdain for working class voters. She clung to Obama, which Biden seems to want to continue fir himself.
2
@SAJP
Amazingly, as unlikable she was to so many people (I voted for her, but found her smug and arrogant), and despite the documented Russian meddling and hacking, AND the Comey bombshell (sabotage?) with 10 days to go, she still could've won with a large majority IF for her own mistake of hubris. That being all but ignoring the upper midwest states and PA during her campaign. Most of these states she didn't even visit once during the general campaign! Despite the warnings of all of her advisors - including Bill!!
3
Trump is succeeding, like it or not. The economy is soaring, immigration is slowly coming under control, he’s standing up to foreign leaders, trade deals are awaiting approval from an intransigent Dem congress which he has been working around. In other words: he’s doing the job. Many who voted in 2016 for Hillary, Dems who didn’t vote and never-Trumpers are seeing his successes and moving in behind him...and that movement will continue. They see him as a jerk - and he often is - but they accept that and they don’t care, as long as he gets the job done. These are people who think, who vote for the country not the candidate...which is a segment of the electorate that Nate Cohn, et al, never include
16
Obama helps pull the country back from the brink of another Great Depression, passes the ACA to get 10s of millions people healthcare coverage, scales back our involvement in two middle east wars, passes an actual infrastructure plan as opposed to holding an 'infrastructure week' photo-op every half year, deports over 3 million illegal immigrants who were actual criminals (yes, you read that right), and coaxes unemployment and economic growth back to good levels despite McConnell and Boehner presiding over a do-nothing GOP controlled Congress for 6 years. And on top of all that, he is a moral, decent, intelligent and empathetic human being, as opposed to what we have now.
Trump takes over and manages to not tank the economy and then gets to take credit for almost everything Obama did. Great job.
I guess for a lot of people Obama's biggest sin was pointing out that this country still has a big racism problem - which it obviously does - and then attempting to bridge the divide. Many white Americans were angered: "We CAN'T be racist! We elected a black President!!" which is like saying that you can't hate seafood because you eat tuna salad - slathered in mayonnaise.
I was born and raised in the NYC area. I've watched this lying, cheating, loudmouth frat-boy on steroids my entire life.
I also raised a smart, kind, articulate, beautiful daughter that I wouldn't allow to be in a room alone with him for one second.
3
Trumpy, the Hater President, has supporters who will double-down on a losing bet, i.e., farmers. Trumpy's supporters can't admit they made a mistake, they would rather deceive themselves into believing they are better off than before Trumpy. Trumpy has delivered for the rich and corporations but no one else. He has raised the cost of health insurance. His tariffs have raised the cost of living for everyone. Minorities have become scapegoats for Trumpy.
10
How? I mean how? How can a sane person who has watched his presidency unfold, then decide they like him?
Americans are strange creatures, it has to be said.
15
@Cattydcat
Your comment shows you are clearly misinformed, Trump is succeeding, doing very well. You don’t know that because don’t look beyond the headlines. The media in the US, and probably the UK, has an agenda. Americans are behind Trump.
6
@Cattydcat I couldn't agree more and I'm an American. I have a Ph.D. in psychology and all my years of study are inadequate for understanding the appeal of this man to so many Americans.
2
Emily Corwith There is nothing appealing about this man. He is irrelevant. If he can put an end to illegal immigration as he promised and actually do it ,I will put up with 4 more miserable years to stop the decent of our republic in the miasma that Mexico and south America are bathing in. Paris is worth a mass as Henry IV, a Protestant, converted to Catholicism In Order to Become the King France.
3
My business and rental real estate owner friends loved their taxes this year, and for most people money is all that matters. My regular car service driver told me that “business is good, so I’m voting for Trump”.
Ethnicity of the four: 3 Latinos and a Syrian-American. They do not give a hoot about anything that comes out of Trumps mouth if the taxes stay low for business owners and if the economy stays ok for the private service cabbie.
8
Maybe because Democrats are still so wrapped up in their own virtue they have done little except hate Trump, try to get him impeached any way they can and double down on supporting and enabling mass unfettered illegal immigration. Those are the only people Democrats seem to care about working and fighting for.
Give me something real other than he's evil, trust that we are not.
12
@CNNNNC What do you mean Democrats have done nothing? The House passed over 200 bills but McConnell won't let them come to the floor of the Senate. Trump and Barr are refusing to cooperate with investigations and ignoring the Constitution. Republicans have said they have a new health care plan for 10 years but we have not seen any details. Our standing at home and in the world has greatly diminished under Trump.
1
People like Trump because he’s angry, he’s fearless, he’s tenacious, he’s disruptive, he gets what he wants. He is the back of the hand, not the soft slap.
He is the audacious that his predecessor was not. And they don’t really care about the results of all of that. They don’t. They like his belligerence. In fact they don’t care about his ignorance. And when he twists the truth they find that kind of corruption not any different than the more prosaic kinds of political corruption, like correctness and formula. I would vote for a piece of furniture before voting for the man, but to so many people, the act is so much more inspiring than the ending. That’s why Bernie would have beat his pants off. He will lose to an ethical Democratic street fighter who is hot to go nose to nose. Be articulate. But also be of courage.
8
Nationalism is a topic of all countries as the new world order displaced the middle class and went for cheeper wages. And as the populations of the industrialized nations see the decline they look at hope for change but its a illusion that hasnt changed to benifit their families hopes and dreams that was a way of life. To where we see anger and nonhope that divides the populations . And now we have the billion to trillion 1 percenters. As change may come to where we believe is a smoke screen. A old friend told me about a slang phrase as he was African American it was a uncle tom to he explained it was a yes person. And now today we have it as I see of all races and cultures around the world so the 1 percenters draw less attention from them selves and we look at ourselves as problems rather then them. I laffed at how history repeats it self and as humans we dont look at history. We thought storming area 51 was a currant issue to have questions answered. But study history or as in many acient history writings and religious books its been a issue .We may look at the words of Enoch or any others culture s writings of the nephilim , Anunnaki , Istar , onu , Inanna , Anunciante , or Anunnaki de to see the same has been for thousands of years. And a conclusion was formed and delt with. We today need closure to form a better situation.
1
This is just plain wrong. After the election, Republicans rallied around him. That's all. They voted for him too. Cohn knows that. Trump got 1% more white vote than Romney, around 56% of whites. A lot more than the percent that said they liked him. Once elected, they rallied to defend their choice. There's no surge there.
3
@Brian You have hit the nail on the head. It’s not that people are coming around to him, but those that held their noses and voted for him are now in a position to either admit it was a good vote or they made a mistake. People that adhere to the right side of the political spectrum tend to have an attitude that their opinions are more worthy and accurate than the rest of the world. They are alone on so many policies, but cannot admit failure. And it all comes down to their fanatical desire to win (remember the dog whistle used during the elections). It’s all that matters. Look at the solid support he gets from GOP in the different polls – it’s always the same , 85-87% GOP support this or that. They just can’t admit they might be wrong on something (which might be why they go to great lengths to defend and deflect his obvious racist attitudes). I can tell you one thing: I’ve met many people from the right that are now against Trump and won’t support him. I’ve personally never met a Dem that said they are now fully behind Trump (although I’ll concede they might exist)
Let’s have another poll on say, Friday. I bet the results will not be in trump’s favor.
3
Trump is expressive, hard working, focused on safety, and has turned the economy around. He stopped the bleeding to other ungrateful countries, especially China and Europe. He speaks directly to the people. Nobody even comes close on the other side. A bunch of cliché slinging talking heads. Not intelligent and not experienced in doing difficult things.
10
@rich williams
Good grief. Trump is expressive, I’ll grant you that, in mean and vile ways. He spends most of his time watching TV or at one of his golf courses. He ignores professional and seasoned foreign policy advice and intelligence briefings. The economy had been trending up for years when he took office. The trade deficit with China has worsened. His trade policies are hurting farmers so much he had to give them two bailouts. And, he only speaks to supporters in carefully scripted rallies while his administration has dispensed with press briefings
I will agree that nobody even comes close on the other side.
2
My doctor says, “He just loves this country.” I’m baffled! I didn’t say anything as I had to get an injection into my eye, LOL.
5
@Bamagirl I have also held my tongue but under less life and death circumstances!
Hillary, "the unusually unpopular" candidate won the popular vote
6
Sorry. Don’t trust your analysis anymore. You have been woefully wrong in the days since Daily Kos and this analysis is broad brush and weak — e.g., it ignores two of the most foreboding bits of data for Trump in all polls that I’ve seen: the ~55% who say they would not even consider voting for him in 2020 and the 2:1 ratio of “strongly disapprove” his performance over “strongly approve”.
4
Joe Biden is going to be a lackluster candidate and Trump will beat him. Warren if she would wrap herself in professorial robes and stop jumping up and down like a skinny school kid could take Trump to the cleaners if they allowed Presidential debate questions to be answered not in 2 minutes but up to ten minutes if need be. There are no other candidates except for the women from Hawaii who believes with good reason that international conflict between the larger powerful countries is closer than we think. Most people who like Trump have no other candidate of strength who can challenge the Presidents absolute lack of intellect, and total lack of ability to grasp any complex subject. This emperor has no clothes and Warren could rip him apart. “I may be Pocahontas but I am not a race monger who has no desire to take thinking well thought out positions that this country needs but would rather roll in the mud of deviousness.”
2
I’m hoping that any increase in the number of people who like him will be in the same Red states that he would get no matter what.
2
Stop paying undue attention to polls. Vote based on your own personal opinion, whatever that may be.
1
You mean White Nationalist Trump is still doing well in the polls? I don't buy it. Polls can be skewed like any statistics, and they mean nothing. First, giving Trump, let alone the GOP, credit for anything is beyond my comprehension of facts and conscience. Do you think your tax refund is a long-term goal of the GOP? Do you think you'll ever see work on infrastructure in this country? Do you think good jobs and fair wages are coming back? Do you think family farms can survive Trump's trade wars? Do you think you'll ever get "the best, most affordable" healthcare (while the GOP is trying to kill the ACA as I type)? Do you think the wall is an effective tool for immigration – how’s that working for us? Do you think their protecting us from Russian influence in the next election? Do you think they'll ever work on gun legislation, ever? Do you think you need to have Trump elected for your own, selfish reasons or for the good of the country? Well, if there's any truth to this poll - we all get what a con man and his GOP confederacy of liars thinks we deserve.
3
What's even scarier is what this might mean when it comes time to tally up Electoral College votes!
1
@JHM It likely means a repeat of 2016. Most people will vote for the Democrat, but Trump still wins because of the Electoral College. I'm fine with the concept of the system. It's good to balance the urban and rural vote to prevent mob rule. However, in recent years it has shown that the rural vote is more powerful. Trump's campaign mobilized a large group of people who don't normally vote to vote. The Democrats need to use this against Trump for 2020. They need to campaign heavily in the midwest, which Hillary's camp failed to do.
2
I have been looking at polls on Real Clear Politics. Trump's approval rating continues to be in the low 40's among the more legitimate polling sources. Rasmussen and Emerson, two unreliable polls, make Trump's overall rating appear better than it really is. This article is not very well thought out.
2
I track Trump's approval ratings on 538 which considers various polls based on all adults, registered voters, and likely voters. Only Rasmussen which uses a likely voter algorithm that favors a high turnout of Republican voters shows anything close to break even for Trump's approval rating. His approval ratings consistently runs 10 percent below his disapproval rating. That said, his opposition should not be complacent, as he has the ability to mobilize the Russians and dark web allies to influence people through fear and hatred.
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@Curt Dierdorff 538 was so wrong in 2016 I am surprised you would cite them Rasmussen is more realistic in their polls due to the fact that nearly every presidential election is 50/50 split
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If any flavor of socialism is running in 2020, trump will win.
I voted 2x for Obama and held my nose while voting for Clinton. I’m a registered republican and will not support socialism and trillion dollar give aways no matter how it’s packaged.
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@alec
Unlike the giveaways to the oil industry and farmers, right? Unlike the giveaways to the lazy rich, which we're actually borrowing money for - borrowing money to help people who are better off than they have ever been.
Sure, farm subsidies aren't socialism, right? Free highways aren't socialism. Mortgage tax breaks aren't socialism, right? The military department stores aren't socialism, right? Military bases in rural states aren't welfare for badly run red states, right?
Sure, registered Republicans hate giveaways, when they go to other people. Good luck fixing health care without socialist 'giveaways'.
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@alec
How do you account for the multi-trillion $$$ giveaways over the last two years? These have been primarily to the most wealthy among us, and some crumbs to others, while accelerating both the deficit and debt incredibly. This is from those who decried the impending doom from the rescue of the general economy starting in 2009.
There's Socialism (think the defunct USSR) and then there is socialism where it makes sense. Highways, water systems, care of the aged and infirm - the list goes on. There are a lot of government programs that promote social good for all, some that are inaccurately labeled as Socialist, that just aren't addressed by the private sector in a meaningful or efficient way. For all its faults, our government can and does provide services more effectively and at a lower cost than the private sector in many cases.
There isn't a candidate, so far, that has a platform approaching what I would consider perfect. But who we have in the White House and in charge of the Senate now has to go.
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@mjw its not a giveaway it is people keeping more of their money which most Americans are okay with the idea of raising taxes is something only progressives celebrate because they feel entitled to other people's money that is why you would think a tax cut is a giveaway rather than people keeping more of their own money
3
Not surprising. Around the world these awful "leaders" are winning elections and public support. These opportunists, like Trump, are not leading these people into a certain way of thinking, but merely mirroring them and allowing them to feel legitimized and justified. They see themselves as the victims of progress. Hence the support for those who want things "as they were". They don't seem to see their racism, sexism, homophobia and xenophobia as really wrong or true even, they rationalize it away. They feel wronged by the government and the so-called elites. It all sounds so irrational but yet, their anger is real and gave us the real disaster that is Trump in the US.
Somehow we know he will be happy with this article and not say it is fake news.
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This says the person who hasn't watched dozens of high skilled jobs move from their location to low cost sources overseas. It's not racism to object, it is self preservation.
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@Bruce What does disrespecting and hurting people of color, women and LGBT, as well as non-Christians have to do with free market incentives that allowed these companies to move in search of bigger profits?
Leaving aside the accuracy of the polls, it is not surprising that the American public is being worn down by the drama, the lies and the gaslighting. It is a constant litany from Republican controlled media, or perhaps more accurately Media controlled Republicans, that no matter what the problem it is the Democrats’ fault. A Trump lie? Provoked by Democrats. A mass shooting? Blame the Democrats. Immigration problems? The Democrats supposedly want open borders. Personal grievance and self absorption sells, and Republicans are selling it.
Many in America simply have gotten too lazy to bother thinking. Work hard all day, listen to talk radio on the drive home, watch the game, watch Fox news, go to bed and repeat.
And tragically, with the demise of local print media, there are fewer reliable sources of factual information placed in the context of informed journalism. Fox, and its chosen political party, succeeds by not just controlling how a story is told, but by the number of times you are hearing the story. Lies and the repetition of lies is powerful stuff. Worse yet, it works.
No, I cannot say a Trump rise in the polls or for that matter anything about the Fox media takeover of America surprises me. Until the average American looks beyond his or her grubby paycheck and decides to think critically and become engaged in the larger world, the Trumps and Foxes of the world will succeed and America will fail.
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@D. Smith Many Americans believe that if they work hard, they don't need to think. It makes them right automatically.
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@D. Smith is this some kind of joke 85% of news journalists are registered democrats there have been several studies over the last few years Harvard did one in 2017 showing the overwhelming liberal bias in news media and in entertainment media
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@D. Smith Your entire premise is wrong, I believe, beginning with your claim that the media is Republican-run. To claim that in The New York Times is indeed rich. FoxNews is but one channel among many that Americans can choose to tune in to. Is it your point that FoxNews should be banned like the alternative voice speakers on college campuses that, if they show up, are shouted down or too intimidated by the left to even speak? You, and many readers of this newspaper, believe that FoxNews has it wrong. Stand by.
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the only thing that can uproot trump is an uprising of the millennials.
there is no more middle.
trump represents a dying, obsolete cohort of white male supremacists threatened to its core by racial, ethnic & sexual diversity.
he also represents a dying fossil-nuke industry being transcended by wind, solar, batteries & led/efficiency.
they will not go quietly. but go they must, or our species is done.
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Sounds like right wing wishful thinking. How many Trump voters have buyer's remorse and will vote against him in 2020?
This article is hype. Five-thirty-eight shows Trump's approval rating holding steady at 42%, as the first plot in this article also shows. There may have been an abrupt shift on election day 2016, but that shift has not continued, as the author attempted to demonstrate with his second figure.
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@Kevin Blankinship 538 was so wrong in 2016 it is unreal people still cite them
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@Mike 538 had the most accurate forecast (way better the the Upshot, sorry Nate Cohn). On election day they had the odds at roughly 2:1 in Clinton's favor, meaning, not a toss-up but not in the bag. With a 5% chance that she would win the popular vote but lost the election. And they had been commenting for months about the lack of polls from the big Northern states (Michigan et al.) and how Clinton was making a huge strategic mistake by neglecting them in favor of places like Arizona.
Trump touches the nerves of many Americans who believe they would be rich were it not for some hated "other" who has unfairly stolen what they deserve. He tells us he is not a racist, and we realize our hidden racist feelings are OK. He tells us he is rich, and we see no reason we should not also be rich. He tells us we should torture those we hate, and our hidden hatred over our own suffering is justified. Xenophobia is an easy route to unlimited political power, and it has been used many times before.
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In order to "like" Trump more than in 2016 one must either be a racist, a bigot, or a tragically uninformed person that only gets their news from right-wing Facebook posts and Fox news, and doesn't interact with any people outside a very small right-wing fanatic bubble.
I cannot understand how any rational, decent, honest person could "like" today more than three years ago a man who not only is unfit for office, but is also demonstrably dishonest, ignorant and is leading America down a dark path of authoritarianism, nepotism, bigotry, divisiveness, denial and active repression of science, environmental destruction, increased inequality and more. There is not ONE single positive thing that can be said about the man or his policies. It is a right-wing dystopian nightmare come true.
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@Andy I am not a racist, and I like to think of myself as being relatively well informed. And I never watch Fox News. And I also think that Trump is incompetent, has probably never read a serious book, fiction or nonfiction, in his life. He should never have been elected. Nevertheless, and I don’t know whether these polls were taken after the Democratic debates or not, but while I will never vote for Trump, I will stay home rather than vote for any of the Democratic candidates I saw. I am a passionate environmentalist, and the population increase caused by large scale immigration is ruining our country. Read the article yesterday regarding water shortages in the world including the United States. Overpopulation and overdevelopment are making our country uninhabitable.
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@Andy the fact that you see no reason why Americans would prefer trump over the Democrat agenda is stunning example of one living in a echo chamber
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Them we get the country we deserve. Sorry, but no empire lasts forever.
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If Joe Biden, presumptive Democratic nominee denies Trump PA, MI, WI and OH, what Trump look at? FL with 29 Electoral College votes will be King Maker in 2020 election? If FL goes with Democrats in 2020 Election night, Trump will probably resign on the following morning paving the way for Mike Pence to be 46th and pardon 45th for Campaign Finance Violation for which Trump's person attorney Michael Cohen serving time and Trump being the co-conspirator no longer will be shielded by US presidency.
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Ask yourself WHY Trump holds sway over so many Americans... Get out of the urban/suburban 'bubble' and drive through middle America in towns like Scranton, PA or Green Bay, WI you can see the carcass of the American Dream. The President used the term 'carnage' during his ill-fated inaugural address, but its not. Closed factories, public schools that do not offer art and civics and music classes along with good jobs at decent wages with full health insurance - ALL GONE. The death of the 'dream' has headstones of closed manufacturing plants, auto assembly lines and buildings that used to house semi-skilled jobs. There is NOTHING left for people who live in these vast stretches of economic desolation. They turn to opioids to dull the pain, violence to lash out at their perceived enemies and listen to whomever will acknowledge their suffering. A 'Place Called Hope' has been padlocked and chained up, the 'Change you Can Believe in' didn't deliver for them, so a demagogue selling snake oil and paying with fools gold wanders into the White House. We have real issues in this country no matter the color of your skin, the gender of your body and the location of your birth. We need real solutions before the real 'carnage' sets in, but I fear after Gilroy, CA... El Paso, TX... and Dayton, OH the carnage is already here. How incredibly ironic that Trump made his own nightmare come to pass.
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All results of unregulated, unchecked, greed-above-all capitalism. Courtesy of Ronald Reagan.
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@TheyHateUsCauseTheyAintUs
If we followed Jesus' actual commandments to heal the sick and feed the hungry, which we need to do democratically and as a nation, then it would turn around quickly. But there's a reason that the Republicans are only 'Christians' when it comes to abortion rules and puritanical attitudes. The pain is the point, opioids made them a lot of money, red states give them a lot of power with no accountability.
This nation will never heal as long as the Republicans are in charge.
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@mjw no Christian in their right mind can support the lefts agenda when they promote social issues antithetical to every thing the bible teaches the lgbt and abortion issue to name few
The more the democrats debate, the worse they look. Trump’s doing nothing and he’s ground on all of them.
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This is so unbelievably depressing. As a scientist who is trained to test hypothesis and believe in data and analysis, I never thought that I would actually agree with Marianne Williamson that “dark psychic force of collectivized hatred” is spreading in this country like the Ebola virus. I am totally befuddled. Totally.
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One simple question, what is wrong with this country if this many people approve of our current President?
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Nate Cohn’s poll findings—if they are reliable and valid, and this assumption is highly questionable—are downright depressing and alarming. That increasing numbers of voters support and sanction this historically unprecedented Presidential level of racism, hatred, divisiveness, lawlessness, immorality, and destruction of democracy and decency is a severe condemnation of what the American people have become. Tragically and disastrously, Trump is the face of America, if Cohn’s findings are credible. In the 1840s, French writer and philosopher Alex de Tocqueville, after traveling extensively in a young, vibrant, and forward-looking nation, said, “America is great because its people are good—but this nation will no longer be great if it’s people are no longer good.” America’s abiding lesson? The never-ending propaganda assault of the past 40 years—think FOX, more recently—has produced consummate success for the radical right-wing revolution.
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A lot of Americans will never again have any respect for the United States The mask has slipped. What has been seen cannot be unseen
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Trump is at a 49% approval rating according to Rasmussen. The ones who don't like Trump are people with microphones like in Hollywood, the news media and late night TV hosts.
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How many of the "now Trump"s (as opposed to his base) said that they could not vote for Clinton because she was "untrustworthy", a "self-dealer", or simply because there was "too much drama" with the Clintons?
If the "now Trump"s like him now then it was all a lie. It was. We have learned nothing new about Trump since he was elected and nothing new since he was sworn in. We knew he was a liar and a racist. We knew he was a narcissist and self-dealer. We knew he was a serial adulterer who told us he groped women. We knew he was unschooled in the issues with which the President would have to deal. We knew he lived in the gutter and that he did his best to drag every down to that level.
Maybe we did not know how corrupt many of his Cabinet appointments would be but we knew that many would be unqualified for their jobs they were given and that many would actively work against the mission of the Agencies they were asked to lead.
In the end, Trump lost the vote of the people but won the States because enough people wanted to grab the Supreme Court seat McConnell held open and hoped for a tax cut (Debt? What debt?).
It is no surprise many "never Trumpeters" fell in line. They were granted permission by Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio -- three men who pretended to have a moral compass and a spine.
There are very few states that can not be won on turnout. We need to register and vote as if our kids' lives depended on it because they do.
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What doesn't this mean? It means that the more racist Trump becomes, the higher his support among Republicans. From that, we can deduce that Republican voters support racism.
For Democrats, the message is clear. Trump is just part of the problem...the entire Republican Party needs to go.
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The people who like Trump more must be the same crowd that thought Obama was from Kenya, then was more convinced with the short form both certificate, and even MORE convinced with the long form. This country lost its mind.
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Think of a 7-2 conservative Supreme Court. This alone fills me with utter dread.
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I am one of those people. I voted for HC in 2016, but I am voting for Trump in 2020. The Democrats, with their animosity toward Trump and their hypocrisy, are no longer worthy of my vote.
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@Rose C. I just don't think that's a reason to vote for a man who is separating children from their parents (really think about that), who treats women with so much disrespect, is getting rid of so many laws that were established to protect our country and our people. And so many of the people he has surrounded himself with are being investigated or already in jail. And you sound very vague about why. I just don't get it.
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All the left wing grievances on this site just highlights one thing - while Mr Trump is a despicable individual on many levels, he is at least DOING something - about China, North Korea, etc which previous presidents didn't do. Secondly, as far as I can tell (and presumably one reason why he is popular) is that he has policies while the Democrats fight amongst themselves or spend all their time on criticising/impeaching Trump. Get over the negativity; develop some coherent policies and say what you will DO in 2020 and beyond. I strongly suspect that s what the general population would like. (But I'm not American so this probably doesn't count).
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@Gary Well, that "doing something" may amount to crippling US industry by shifting China's imports to other countries and/or starting an actual war, but that remains to be seen. At any rate, policy is too complicated and fluctuates too much to serve our purposes over a lifetime. The American identity was founded on a belief in our own exceptionalism, selfishness (pride in the destruction of the commons; i.e., unfettered capitalism), and contempt for intellectualism. We vote for people we could have a beer with without feeling inferior. Pretend to see us and make us empty promises as loudly as possible, and we'll rally for you.
Let's count the votes when the time comes.
Well, my take is:
Many of who didn’t vote for Trump because of their disdain of his naked awfulness in many aspects just have been realizing, over the months of his presidency, that it’s just okey and acceptable not to control their anger and selfishness or not to hold higher ideals (requiring self determination and a bit of sacrifice).
This is how a country degenerates as its people give into temptation of instant joy over efforts and self discipline.
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I wish Mr. Obama could run again. He would destroy Trump in a general election.
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Has it occurred to anyone reading this article that the Media is vested in a Trump win? After all, really, who was reading The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the myriad of online publications that have risen following Trump's 2016 win?
Imagine, if you will, 2020: Trump loses as most people posting on this page want. Great for you but not so great for the Media who are vested in another 4 years of Trump so they can sell their ads, keep their subscriptions up and continue without end the daily rending of their hair when Trump utters any word that they can exploit and profit from.
Folks: I have thought long and hard about this and believe it to be true: The Media, The New York Times absolutely would be devastated if Trump loses. Their "meal ticket" will be gone.
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The arrogance and contemptuousness dripping from many of these comments is exactly why I left the Democratic Party years ago. Welcome to the New Religious Left. Moralistic. Myopic. Judgmental. Intolerant. I refuse to be a part of it. It reminds me of the same stuff I heard from religious conservatives when I was growing up. The so-called ‘basketful of deplorables’ argument is apparently alive and well, and may unfortunately get Trump elected again. Make no mistake- he must be defeated, but demonizing him and his supporters is unjust folly. We must call for unity and empathy. Listen and learn from his supporters instead of mindlessly denigrating then. Then Trump may be defeated in 2020.
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Keep saying he has the election in his pocket. No need for republicans to go out and vote. It’s all set.
Sounds like Democrats can retire that oft-repeated declaration, "This is not who we are!" Maybe it should be revised to, "If this is who we are, God save America because our soul is sick."
Phone surveys trend towards older Americans, online surveys trend younger. Neither of these surveys represents the voting electorate. Unfortunately with the advent of the cell phone we no longer have a universal survey tool except for elections themselves.
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I did not vote for him in 2016 but I will now. My 401K has doubled, and my children's lives have never been better economically. I filter out the noise and concentrate on results.
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@Hank
"I did not..." "I will..." "My 401k..." "...my children's lives..." "I filter..." Enough said.
You can't understand our country if you don't understand how massively the media is biased against Trump and for the Democrats. You can't understand our country if you don't understand how intimidated people who even mildly support Trump are from saying anything positive about him in public. The polling data remains terribly biased against him; far, far more people support him than any poll will ever show. Doubly so among "likely voters." Triply so in the industrial swing states. Get ready for the second major shock when he wins reelection in 2020, possibly without the popular vote. Then we'll have a real meltdown as the Intelligentsia is challenged to come to terms with how their views of what's right and what's good are not in harmony with the electorate.
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During the 2016 election, polls indicated that three quarters of the populace were dissatisfied with the direction in which the nation was headed. They never asked whether those polled were unhappy because it was going too far to the left or to the right. Now pollsters never ask this question. Why?
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I'm not interested in national polls. The polls that matter are state polls for Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, and maybe a couple others (such as Arizona).
I would expect the current president's approval ratings to have gone up in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Idaho, and some other heavily Republican states, as some voters there reflect the consensus around them.
By the same reasoning, I'm unimpressed by polls showing a Democrat (e.g., Sanders) leading the popular vote in a general election; running up totals in Massachusetts, New York, and California doesn't win where it matters, the Electoral College.
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My hope though is this: The violent, overt racism underpinning this guy has simply allowed these "closet supporters" to come out of their hiding. These polls assume that people are telling the truth, when in fact we all know--especially these past two years--that lying is so easy.
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A hidden vote has been, well, hidden since the start. There’s a sizable number of mainstream voters - not the beer-bellied midwestern racist stereotype - that simply fear Trump - a known - less than they fear a social progressive candidate - an unknown. The longer we avoid the doomsday routinely predicted by Democrats, the less credible the Democrats and the better Trump looks to voters. This is why the left’s obsession with Trump is so counterproductive. Better that they would focus on issues of concern to voters, about which Democrats actually have some good ideas. But we barely hear about them. Instead it’s all about Trump, Trump, Trump and that helps nobody but Trump.
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I don’t believe these conclusions are drawn from actual conversations with millions of people so they must be extrapolated from a handful and so I think they are meaningless.
Let’s just see how many more horrors this man perpetrates over the next year and who’s left to vote for him. Meanwhile you can keep your polls.
But if he wins again I’m moving to Canada with that 86 year-old lady, I simply cannot bear another 4 years of this evil.
3
Ummm, didn't polls indicate that Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in for the White House in 2016? They sure did. Right up until she lost.
I don't know about you, but the last thing I need to read this morning after the debacle of Trump's visits to Ohio and Texas is that more people approve of his job performance.
I mean, my confidence in our surviving the Trump Presidency is already at an all time low. Don't know if it can go much lower.
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All the more reason for the Democratic Party to have a robust, thorough field operation. Pro-Democratic areas need to be targeted door-to-door to register voters who have moved since 2016 as well as newly eligible young people.
Get-out-the-vote efforts have to be augmented by an army of paid staff as well as volunteers in the purple states.
This is where the money should be spent. Not on repetitive, annoying, questionably effective television ads.
Don't whine, ORGANIZE !
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Obviously Trump has more support now than in 2016. Now he's an incumbent. All else equal, incumbents generally enter a race with an advantage over a challenger.
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I'm on may way out of the country and can't think of a way to explain to other why we can't end this debacle.
The Russians?
The Republicans?
McConnell and Cho?
Is there some action we could take as a whole country to end this mess? Are we too large?I always feel like I am not doing enough but...what to do?
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I don't believe Cohn. He's beating a drum that brings him a lot of attention within the Times readership. He appears to be a deeply pessimistic young man, which I can understand.
I was too when I was a young man. That's why I dropped out.
That was a mistake because I, and tens of thousands like me, left the field of play to the likes of Nixon, Reagan, the Bushes, and their friends like the Federalists, Dick Cheney, Karl Rove and now Trump. But Trump is unlike his predecessors who were much more sly. Trump's in-your-face style has created a very high maintenance relationship with the body politic. The drama is constant. There is always something going on. Conflict and chaos surround him. He creates it and he can't help it. You can't catch your breath. Relationships like that make such high emotional and psychological demands that people decide they are better off ending the relationship. Trump is wearing the body politic out. And it's not going to get better before November 2020. It will just continue. I think more and more people will just get tired of it, even if they think he's colorful or doing some good things. To be clear, I detest him, but for him to lose the next election voters don't have to feel the way I/we do. They just need to be tired of his shtick. If he keeps on doing what he's been doing, he will lose. That's what my understanding of relationships makes me believe.
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Perhaps not related to this specific poll but aren’t there fewer people identifying as Republican than in 2016? And doesn’t this statistic bear factor in?
3
Maybe we will be very lucky if polls make Trump feel invincible. Hi might "under-campaign" in States like Michigan and Wisconsin and lose reelection.
Might be wishful thinking but it is also Deja Vue.
I am one who did not vote for Trump in 2016 but am leaning toward doing so in 2020. The reason is simple: peace and prosperity. I don’t want to change that.
As President, Trump hasn’t gotten into any new wars, ISIS has been defeated and he may finally be getting out of the “forever wars” in the Middle East. We may be out of a 20 year war in Afghanistan by Election Day 2020 and if so he will gain votes for it.
The economy is doing great, better than it’s ever been by some standards. Unemployment is at record lows, investments are soaring, and we are very close to energy independence. Real wages (after adjusting for inflation) are increasing for the first time in decades, meaning the economic benefits are at last getting to the little guy, ordinary Americans.
And what are the Democratic candidates offering? Empty promises. “Free money” should be the official slogan of whatever Democrat ends up as the party’s nominee in 2020. Free health care, free college, free income, free immigration. There is no way to pay for this except a crushing increase in taxes and national debt. Combine this with the negativism. The Democratic party will lose again if they continue to insult voters with a false and dispiriting vision that the country is somehow racist, cruel and unjust. Sadly this seems to have become the Democratic Party line.
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@Bill Glad the economy is working for you. Not so much for us folks who rely on meager social security checks and never had the money to invest in the soaring stock market (aka legalized gambling casino).
Had to buy a wash machine last week. I don't really enjoy paying an extra $150 for it because of Trump's trade tirades. Doubt that'll be factored into the formula when they give us a less than 3% raise in social security next year.
You have your nerve mentioning the national debt! You have to be kidding after the massive Republican tax cut for the wealthy.
And do you really want Trump in charge as climate change wreaks its increasingly devastating effects on our country?
2
@Bill Peace and prosperity?? Are you kidding? For whom? We're still in the same never-ending foreign conflicts and are on the verge of a major, potentially catastrophic new one with Iran as well as ramping up militant rhetoric against usual suspects, China and North Korea.
The prosperity you're talking about began with Obama and is being threatened by Trump's inane, damaging trade war that has American steel workers and farmers hanging on for dear life. Many aren't going to survive. His campaign promise of bringing back the thousands of jobs sent overseas was a massive election year fib that he knew wasn't possible. The low unemployment you mention is misleading in that most of the new jobs are in the low pay end of the service industry and the new gig economy.
And yes, that the country is somehow racist, cruel and unjust is deeply dispiriting, because it's true, not false. America is a deeply racist country led by a deeply racist president, and your failure to see that is willful ignorance on your part. Trump's "successes" are a mirage that are easily revealed for the empty failures they really are when inspected more closely.
@Karen K. Agree the deficit (approaching $1 trillion annually again) is a big problem. But tax receipts are actually up since the tax cut. A booming economy generates more tax revenue.
He consistently has an approval below 50%. Not once has the majority of the country liked him.
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If Trump's popularity has risen it may be nothing more than a reaction to the antics and positions of the Squad and other Dem liberal socialist. For many, it may well be that there are no Dems running who they would vote for other than possibly Biden who is the most moderate of the bunch. Most people are smart enough to realize that significant changes in social policy do not end well, and that the law of unintended consequences. I suspect that many people who will vote for Trump in 2020 will do so not because they like him but rather that on balance, they dislike the positions taken by the Squad and other liberal Dems. It will be a replay of 2016.
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@Mike
The data presented here does not track the activity and mixed public perception of the squad, which was only recent. Blaming them or their views for Trump's success and resistance to mainstream media's efforts to unseat him would be a blunder, IMO.
@Mike F. I think calling what the three congresswomen are attempting to do in terms of climate change and equality is a bad use of the word. These are serious people. They came to Washington to move things forward. You can disagree with what they are doing, but what they are doing isn't clowning.
@Kate McLeod I don't disagree that something needs to be done about climate change, but I do think that AOC professes to want too much change, too soon than is realistic. Also, her proposal to pay the cost in part by printing more money is not what I would expect from someone with an economics degree from Boston University. Everyone wants to move things forward, but forward is a relative term involving personal perspective. For example, aircraft can be improved but aircraft are not going away anytime soon.
1
I have been called twice in the past week (on a landline) and done political surveys. I don’t see why anyone younger than 30 would ever have the patience to answer all those questions. My kids, both teenagers, ignore the landline when it rings. Reliance on ‘the gold standard’ is one thing that tanked HRC’s campaign. But I do think Donald Trump has won people over because of two things: China and immigration.
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What do these polls really mean?
If memory serves me correctly, on the morning of Election Day 2016, the NYT poll had Trump with a 7% chance of winning, and I thought great, we will have a qualified, dignified, experienced female president for the next four years ...
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The fact that such an obviously unqualified and intemperate person is even in the conversation for dog-catcher, never mind the Presidency of the United States is a national embarrassment.
I am confident and optimistic that the majority will flood the polls in 2020 with an anti-Trump tidal wave. If he continues on his present course Texas, Georgia and Arizona will all be in play This study underestimates the horror and outrage of millions of people who were not engaged in 2020. This time no one will take his defeat for granted and the majority will understand the clear and present danger he poses.
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Sorry, Nate. After 2016. I don't believe any polls, ANY polls.
36
His unfavorability appears to remain steady at about 57% and those people are not coming back. Anyone who supports Trump now might as well vote for Jerry Springer, if combative and uninformed is what you desire in a President.
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@alprufrock At least Jerry Springer actually has political experience as Mayor of Cincinnati...
@alprufrock. I want Trump gone as much or more than most. But every day my fear that his Presidency will prevail hits hard. Jerry Springer it happens is an exceptional businessman who parlayed a television franchise into am empire by exploiting the dishonorable and indecent behavior of some, while appealing to the voyeuristic pleasure of millions. That did not happen by chance but by creative design. Springer’s biography suggests he is an educated, enterprising business man. He has appealed to those who chose to watch, and those who who are exhibitionists. He amassed a fortune, and seemingly has not imposed his personal perspective and will on anyone. Trump on the other hand is a greedy, emotionless, egotistical opportunist, who has no conscience. He is an anti- friend. He is hauntingly manipulative. He is the President, and he is dangerous. I would rather vote for tv personality Jerry Springer than a man who is responsible for the perversion of a nation, not just those who CHOSE to watch his show. I have heard Trump say “he lies”, about anyone he finds disagreeable. Trump has little intellect, and he labels as as a liar anyone with whom he disagrees. I certainly hope these polls are wrong.
1
Trump and the Russians must be contributing to these polls - because everyone I know, and there are many former 2016 Trump supporters do not support him now and deeply regret.
Mussolini did the same thing - he touted false polling information
20
I think we need to revise our understanding of how people vote rather than convincing ourselves that they are wrong. A key lesson to be learned is that there is not a rational argument that can convince people not to vote for Trump.
And this is not the first time this is happening in history. People all over the world vote for nationalist/populist/racist candidates no matter how reasonable they may be in other aspects of lives.
The mainstream media needs to hold the opinion of Trump supporters as equally valid because it is! Demonizing or ridiculing it doesn't take away people's power or their right to vote.
And who wants to be ridiculed for their views anyway?
7
I don’t believe people really like Trump; They just hate political correctness. People believe that Trump is the antidote ( like chemo ). Democrats ( and media ) have embraced PC culture and that led to Trump’s rise. Bill Maher continually warns us that it will destroy us.
7
His ability to rattle the financial markets with a simple tweet scares me. That Wall Street can support this terrifies me. Are they really willing to give up their free markets to an economy that is run by presidential decrees? And for what? Just to make this years bonus a little bigger? It feels like we’re on a sinking ship and everyone is grabbing some free food from the buffet.
14
@EW That is because all media including the NYT is also feeding at the trough, instead of explaining in very simple and clear language what could be understood by a 5 years old and scholars at the same level.
By any measure imaginable, this president is toxic, and I can't for the life of me imagine how anyone could rationalize any positive assessment of him whatsoever.
If indeed his poll numbers remain steady or are rising, what this says about our country is disgusting.
26
How can there not be a single Democrat that can get a solid hold of the center’s vote that is crucial for defeating President Trump?
There’s only one answer, and we’ll hear from him after the 24 candidates finish their food fight and the “Squad” implosion:
Michael Bloomberg. Independent.
8
@Rob W. Rob, we are all frightened. But If we do not rally around our own, we will be stuck with Trump. Families who have differences fare better if they keep their issues to themselves. Instead of ‘food fight’ think of the candidates as formidable personalities engaging in clever, intellectual disagreement. How’s that?
The first explanation I thought of is that many people who in 2016 said they disliked that person now feel free to say what they really think, i.e., that they agree with the despicable behavior of that person.
19
Simple... as you stated, it's not rocket science! They like Trump's toxic swaggu - my passport is updated, and I'm a professional, a big girl now. I can be an expat in a progressive country, where my skin isn't determining my dreams and worth.
@jeroen
Someone oncevpromised "if you like your health insurance, then you can keep it." Millions then lost their health insurance.
Would you characterize this behavior as "despicable?"
1
@jeroen. I just don’t buy that. Maybe it is the Russians who are interfering and supporting their man ‘The Donald’.
“Live interview polls”?
Old people with landlines?
People who pick up the phone when an unknown number calls them?
This sample is going to skew the data.
27
Same polls showed that Mr Trump will loose in 2016.
4
To every Never Trumper out there, to every American that is upset about the tenor and generally bad faith "governance" that brings the party of "fiscal responsibility" to a tax cut that is unpaid for and will result in the necessary gutting of social services, to every American offended about a blatantly obvious race baiter waging a cynical culture war to secure votes of a country unable to reconcile with its past failures, polls and appeals to decency aren't enough. We need every single one of you doing whatever you can to turn up the heat and get our vote out regardless. This election isn't going to be won on 'decency', every Trump voter has indicated as much, this election will be won on those of us who have the commitment and work to not see this country fall any further and get the vote out.
20
Well, if they like Trump now, they're really going to like him as the economy thanks. Enjoy!
And when you've had enough, vote Trump out of office, he's earned it!
2
Four months into Mr. Trump’s term, my then 86 year old mother asked me to go online to find out how much money we’d need to move to Canada. At the time, I said “don’t worry”. Now I’m worried.
10
@JCAZ. How fortunate you are to have such a perceptive 86 yr old Mother. Bless her.
1
Yet I've been reading and hearing from people who voted for Trump in 2016 - and now regret it and will not vote for him again. These include longtime Republicans who agree with him on some issues such as immigration - but are not on board with all the rest.
Surprisingly, this includes a few of my very conservative relatives who have benefited from the tax cuts - but now see him as the totally unqualified, undignified, vulgar, inept, dangerous demagogue he is. (How they missed that while he was campaigning is beyond me.)
With people I know personally, it's as if they've snapped out of a trance.
One elderly lifelong Republican relative was appalled after watching part of a recent Trump rally - as well as by Trump's constant barrage of school bully insults. He has this odd notion that the POTUS should project dignity.
Btw, this same relative, who's very conservative on most issues, actually admires the Latino immigrants in his New England town for their work ethic, traditional family lives and faith.
The question then is: if these people won't vote for Trump - and they still disagree with Democrats on many issues - who WILL they vote for?
14
@doy1. I can answer that. Vote for the candidate who runs against hi-Trump. In this case that old adage that the one you know is safer than the one you don’t-is not true. Until Trump is gone- until McConnell is gone-our Democracy is imperiled.
1
I really don’t understand this. People who voted for Obama in 2012 turned around and voted for Trump in 2016. Trump lost the election in the popular vote. It is asserted that he won the electoral college. But now people who didn’t “like” Trump in 2016 now like him? If a voter believes in anything the Democratic Party has been saying since 2008, how can they think Trump is now acceptable? It requires a lot of strenuous mental gymnastics, as well as self delusion, in my opinion. Either you really didn’t believe that Clinton and the Democrats were good choices in 2016 or you didn’t believe that Trump was a good choice. If you are really paying attention, you cannot logically come to the conclusion that after Obama, Trump is an acceptable choice, in my opinion. Trump preys on unthinking emotionality. If people don’t really think and pay close attention to what is happening, then Trump could win in 2020. Which would be a disaster for the entire country. At their core, the political parties stand for something. And what the Republicans stand for right now is dark and sinister. Wake up! Please wake up.
7
Most people vote based on their emotions. Most are already committed to a party (tribalism). Politicians spend enormous amounts of time and money in finding the emotional buttons of voters. And that is done by all politicians, right, center, and left. Passions move people. Reason, not so much. Some people are going to vote against Trump in 2020 regardless of who is the opponent. The reasonable way to proceed would be to wait for the opponent to be nominated, research, compare the two using a weighted points system, and make a rational decision based on the mathematical points ranking results. What voter does that? Some people already concluded that anybody would be better than Trump. It may well be the case, but it is a gross generalization, and not a reasonable conclusion. The Democrats know that “anybody but Trump is at play” and hence the 20 Democrats field. All you have to do is win the Democratic nomination and you are president. This is also an opportunity to field the most leftist candidate they can find because voters will not be paying close attention. We are not rational beings. If we were rational beings, the world would be so boring. Most of what we do is to satisfy our emotions, not to satisfy our intellect.
1
They obviously know little about the environment nor understand the enormous harm Trump is causing to it.
12
Of the people who didn't like him, how many voted for him. if that is the bulk I am not too worried. If they didn't like him and voted for Clinton then there is a problem. You fails to separate the two group. Unless you can detail this fact the facts are not that interesting.
On both polls, just eyeballing the data points suggest that there is no real movement up or down.
3
Since 2016 i am quite sure not 1 person will be voting for trump. I can’t imagine a Hillary voter saying “what a great job” and regretting the Hillary vote. Trump won the middle and his base. I am assuming many millions he has alienated with his daily antics. I for one was in the middle and many i know have switched and can’t wait for the election. I’m also thinking many million more will show up and bury trump. Then a recession hits and all his bad decisions with foreign policy and trade alienate a few more ......That’s my logic.
5
The one thing that I’d like to know is the WHY of these numbers. So, there is an apparently growing number of people out there who favor Trump and/or have a good opinion of his job. Could the survey ask what they base these opinions upon? What are the top 3 or 5 ACTIONS that Trump has taken (or is thought to have taken, even if he didn’t) that support these favorables opinions? Knowing that (and not going for “rational” guesses or broad, vague statements such as “they’re all racist”) is the only way to start understanding what people who don’t support Trump are truly fighting against and how to effectively address the underlying issues and redirect the debate. Numbers alone foster much talk but don’t really help to plan for action.
Haven’t we learned anything from 2016? Who cares about National popularity polls? Electoral votes are electoral votes. Trump’s increase in support likely comes from the same red states he’s already projected to win. Meanwhile, two 2016 Trump states—Michigan and Wisconsin— have turned decidedly blue, and several others are up for grabs: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and yes, Georgia and Texas. Trump will have to sweep all seven of these states to win again in 2020.
3
Telephone poll? Landlines? That is not very meaningful.
1
In 2016, after voting, my wife and I were confronted by a cigarette smoking woman standing outside the polling station. “Did you vote for Trump,” she asked? “No,” responded my wife. The woman gave us a look as she blew smoke toward us, “This is the first time I’ve ever voted in my life.”
The apathetic, white non-voter turned out for Trump. The anti-government crowd turned out for Trump. These groups will be out in full force in 2020.
Sadly, the schisms of the Civil War never healed. They went into hiding, waiting for the right moment to reappear. Trump’s arrival now looks and feels like the time is here.
6
I did not vote for Trump.
However, I appreciate that China is being held accountable for stealing. The tariffs do not punish them enough in my opinion.
17
Again, there are many levels of support. Strong, somewhat, neutral. How many of these supporters are strong supporters versus those who somewhat support him. I have a feeling those who do not support him are strongly against him. And please tell me which states contain these supporters. Are they in PA, MI and WI? Or are they mostly in states he’s already going to win? The generalizations here seem pretty off base to me. I really don’t understand Mr Cohn’s strange need to prop up his support. I would ask him to dig a bit deeper and tell us where these supporters live and how strongly they support Trump. Also it doesn’t matter until we have a Democratic ticket. And tell me how the GOP will overcome an un-winnable trade war, an existential threat to ObamaCare, more mass shootings (including I fear against journalists) among other examples of “so much winning.” Everyone is so convinced about his base. But I would ask Mr Cohn to please examine how he’s baking in Democrats’ decisions, as Ted Cruz put it, to “walk over glass” and vote next November.
While many raise an outcry against Trump for the outbreaks of White Nationalist violence, those who voted him into office and continue to support his racist policies bear some of the responsibility for the outbreaks of hatred. While many state that his words and the behaviors of the racist killers don't reflect American values, his stable poll numbers would suggest that while this is true, it is barely true, and perhaps may become untrue. The ugly truth is that racist policies, including the failure to institute sane gun control regulations are as much the fault of the voters who keep voting for Trump and his Republican cronies who support these regressive policies.
And to some extent those who stand for tolerance, peace, and harmonious relationships bear some responsibility as well, in that we have failed to win over the forces of inequity to our side. Blame the right wing all you want. The left must persuade enough of the right wing to stop supporting policies (and their proponents) that are forged in hatred and intolerance, or we will have failed our country, our children, ourselves, and humanity.
1
Ever since he took office, he has been (1) firing people (2) fighting with all other countries (3) threatened the livelihood of farmers (3) increased the deficit by trillions (4) increased environmental degradation (5) added more thieves to his administration (6) degraded social norms -- One could go on and on--- If his approval has gone up then there are more people like him in the US which will not help the country and leave a mess for the children. Shame on those who support him.
3
If we elect Trump again we deserve what comes as a result. I intend on retiring during the next president’s term. I can’t imagine how much more solidified the damage will be in another 6 years.
The worst damage may be the collateral damage to the Republican Party. Or maybe I was delusional and it’s been that bad all along.
1
If the “most qualified woman ever” couldn’t beat President Trump I doubt the current crop of Democrats could come close except possibly that Mayor Pete.As a rally woke Republican he and his husband have my vote unequivocally.
5
“If Trump wins this is our last election”
All this drama.
Trump will likely win. Four years later there will be another election. The world isn’t ending. It’s been here for 4 billion years and will remain here. Calm down.
11
@David No, you're right, the world isn't ending. It's just that an awful lot of the improvement we've gained on planet earth by dint of civilization and cooperation will significantly recede in the wake of the tRump-Putin-oligarch takeover. Please try to pay attention to what's going on outside of NYC.
2
I never voted for him. He was just to much of a wildcard. I voted third party for the second time in a row.
But this time I'll probably vote for him depending on if any viable candidate can step forward for the Democrats (doesn't look good).
Why? As sour as he can be the mainstream media and the Democrats are so disingenuous (I'm being polite).
The real issues that affect most Americans he's done a good job.
We have a great economy. Yes tax reform helped me and many more. Wages are higher. China is being taken on (finally). The border is being addressed the right way. (no thanks to the obstructionist Democrats). ISIS is virtually a non entity. He was right about not allowing immigration from a select group of Muslim countries (ask Germany how that's going).
I wish he would tone down his rhetoric. And I wish the mainstream media would stop lying.
12
Nowhere in this article does it consider the question WHY Trump's approval ratings have climbed. If we don't even pose the important questions it's very unlikely we'll be on the winning side of public opinion change and we'll probably become less grounded by the truth. If Trump had colluded with the Russians as was contended by establishment democrats for so long these numbers would surely be different. It was unbecoming to deny the clear election results of 2016... and now the Mueller investigation results, which clearly didn't meet expectations/accusations. As fitting for a democracy, our public opinion seems to be tracking the empirical truth. Democrats need to become more objective if we wish to garner more popular support. Trump was the people's choice in 2016 (given the alternative) and did not collude with the Russians to get there. It's much easier to blame sinister foreign actors or ignorant domestic participants then to blame ourselves for perpetuating an economic system that is brutal to the uneducated and unsophisticated. Sure Trump and many of his supporters are base... but they seem to have clarity for the truth that comes with oppression. And shouldn't zip codes be considered if you're white, as well?
4
I’m not at all surprised to hear that Trump’s approval rating has inched up over the past few months, since in that time, the Democrats have been talking about student loan forgiveness, free college for illegal immigrants, and reparations for descendants of slaves. As much as I don’t want to see four more years of Trump, that’s the kind of talk that will compel many Americans to vote for him.
12
@Robert M Indeed. This is less and less our country and more and more a gift to total strangers, many of whom just bring down our values and ignore our hard-won culture.
How many times must a candidate lose the popular vote but "win" the election before we abandon our claim to free and fair democracy?
The principle of an election is super clear: the person with the most votes wins. Violating this not only cuts against our moral support for democratic institutions, but it also, and more dangerously, undermines our practical support - why bother voting when the game is rigged and one side has to clear a higher bar than the other?
When you add the longstanding efforts to make it harder for certain groups to vote (or deny them completely), as well as the seeming acquiescence to this by Congress, the judiciary and the media, the result can only be growing disgust for the whole system.
At some point all that is left is a democratic charade - a few people going through the motions, but it has no contact, no relation, to the will, or interests, of the people.
1
I'm going to sound like a broken record for a while: Trump is buying his way to re-election, and he's going to ramp it up over the next few months.
Why? He'll be indicted the minute he's out of office and likely go to jail: election fraud; tax fraud (why he's fighting the release of his tax returns); obstruction of justice; witness tampering; possible money laundering; and possible undisclosed connections with Russians. This doesn't include consorting with Jeffery Epstein and what that could mean.
Trump knew the Russians were helping him get elected. He didn't tell the FBI. He communicated openly with them through media coverage of the campaign and secretly through others. Then he tried to hide it by interfering with the Mueller investigation.
Trump is compromised. And, like Michael Cohen said, he's not leaving the White House willingly.
5
Isn't this the guy who had Hilary winning soundly until 7 PM on election night? At which point the 70% chance of winning suddenly turned course? Remember how no one thought T could win? Honestly I no longer put any stock in polls, or especially in this particular pollster. Why are we discussing polls now, anyway? We have another 15 months until the election and what will happen between now and then is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, I believe that as those of us who recognize the existential threat Trump presents to Americans, the rest of the world, every species of animal, clean water and fresh air, we are giving up before we even have a Democratic nominee. This country can and will save itself from the hatred T peddles and we cannot say, "Oh well, the polls..." We will take our democracy back. Hate will not win.
2
Like in 2016, people who don’t like Trump are amazed that anyone can. Nothing has changed. People love Trump because he says things that people too often feel they can’t say, for fear of being branded as a bad person. People love this. And not for the wrong reasons.
The passionate leftward push in response to him, completely understandable, only helps him though.
If you want to defeat Trump, pick a safe moderate. No one on left wants to do that though, understandably, but otherwise you’re likely to have 4 more years of this.
The way to defeat Trump is to stop caring so much, ironically, and pick a candidate who will be best to move entire country forward, recognizing what it is many love in Trump (hint: it’s not because they think he’s a white supremacist) while being true to one’s own beliefs and ideals.
It can be done. But screaming and getting angry while putting down those who support Trump is the best way to get him re-elected. Let Trump hang himself. The Dems just need to focus on a more middle of road / slightly left plan, not get overly upset by Trump (laughter helps!) and it can be done.
But if Dems (both voters and candidates) collectively let Trump get the better of them emotionally, Trump will win. Guaranteed.
I see way too much “there’s no way he’ll win again” and it’s exactly what happened in 2016. Wake up, have a vision, don’t go too far left, respect ALL Americans, and Dems could win.
Otherwise we’re doing this another 4 years.
6
What’s infuriating to the liberal left is Trump’s focus on the economy and push towards full employment. They cannot ignore it or sell anyone on their fable that Obama brought this about. They sidestep the issue of fixing our immigration problem by demonizing Trump which is not working. As always, Liberals are trying to sell their version of socialism and Middle America wants no part of it.
10
People who used to be afraid to say they support Trump are now emboldened to do so. The polls in 2016 didn’t reflect the level of his actual support. Now they are inching in that direction. Outside the echo chamber of the “cancel NYTs” crowd, most people can see that Trump has a better chance of a landslide victory than a crushing defeat. Like him or loathe him, but get used to the idea of four more years.
9
When was the last time you had a respectful disagreement with a Trump supporter without either showing contempt?
If that is not possible then democracy will not survive. Difference of opinion should not lead to a civil war.
5
Is the country’s polling system still thrown off by the emergence of cell phones and the internet? I’m honestly asking.
When telephones were first emerging in the U.S., polling by telephone did not produce a random sampling of Americans—it produced a skewed sample of wealthier Americans, so the results of the polls were the opposite of how the public actually voted. The predicted winner - announced in newspapers - was not the actual winner.
With the 2016 election, polls were off too. Was it the effect of the internet and cell phone skewing the sample AWAY from being a random sample covering the breadth of the population (and thus AWAY from being accurate)? Or perhaps the “shy Trump voter” effect where people answered dishonestly about the fact they were voting for Trump?
At any rate, I’m not convinced polling in this country has gotten its sea legs since 2016. Were going to have to wait and see.
...and work like heck to un-elect Republicans in 2020.
1
If these polls are correct I would ask those that now like him. Would you like, support and justify one of your family members that always lies to you, creates division in your home and takes advantage of what others have done in benefit of your home saying he did it. If they answer Yes, we know then why they like him (Just think about principles, honor and values at home), If they respond NO, Then I would ask them if they do not feel insulted mentally and on their most important values when they support and justify a person that is doing exactly that.
Economy is the reason?. Unless they are very rich and had a very considerable reduction on their taxes and a huge increase of their income or they are very poor and do not pay taxes and their income is small, it does not make sense to support him. If they are middle class they are along with us paying for the benefits given to extremely rich, the irresponsible debt increase, the golf tournaments with his close friends and close supporters and the broken and damaged Country that will pass to our children and grand children.
For the most majority, the Republicans just view and listen to the biased right television and communication channels that does not present the facts and their objective is to make a brain wash to their viewers. If these polls are correct then they are accomplishing their objective on more people.
How can you say “millions of Americans “ now support Trump when each of the pollsters you cite typically only interview 300-1100 people? Further, your data links do not work, so this entire column could be make-believe.
In this day and age, especially after November 2016, telephone polls like Gallup are not an accurate measure of public sentiment, and should not be used as the basis for reporting, op-Ed or otherwise.
2
Ironically, a democratic majority congress/senate and a trump presidency might actually accomplish something decent. He’s a populist after all. Bet he’d change his right wing tune quickly. When you stand for nothing, you can stand for anything!
Seems a common reaction here to good polling for Trump is denial.
That hasn't been a winning strategy across the Western world since the financial crash of 2008.
It's not actually true that the ostrich sticks his head in the sand when threatened but it does appear to be true of so many self-proclaimed "liberals"
2
Trump makes it OK to let the ID out, plain and simple. We are an emotional species, prone to violence and tribalism that is always there. We all feel what he says, it's a visceral reaction, whether positive or negative. We live in a more reactive and tribal time than any in the last 50 years. Few of us have the ability to filter out truth from reality, emotion feeling from rational thought. Trump goes straight to the core of our fears and sense of entitlement. He's proven it's acceptable to violate norms of decency, and people love him for it. Do you really think it will end with him?
1
The uptick is easy to explain, Fox News is very effective at their disinformation campaign. If and when FOX abandons Trump he will be gone in an instant and the GOP will then their come to Jesus moment.
3
You‘ll have him four more years.
Why?
At the core, he‘s addressing the topics voters worry about every day: jobs, the economy, immigration, defense, America‘s status in the world..
His style is appalling, his motives are wrong and his interest is ego-driven.
But Joe and Jane America finally feel represented, somehow.
8
This is Nate Cohn speculating about Trump's current approval rating compared to his approval rating on Election Day 2016.
It ignores all current polling -- which shows Biden beating Trump by 8.5 points according to the national poll average at RCP
It ignores Trump's current approval rating average of 42.1% and his disapproval rate of 53.1%, according to 538.
It ignores the Emerson Poll that came out just yesterday showing Biden and Bernie both beating Trump by 2 in Texas.
It ignores the Quinnipiac Poll from last week showing Biden with an 8 point lead over Trump in Ohio.
1
The data suggests that Republicans, in the end, don’t care if the outside appearance of their party is ugly, at times, as long as their core values of lower taxes, pro-business laws get passed to help the rich. Everything that Trump and the republican Congress have actually gotten done (tax reform, increased defense spending, protecting the gun industry from regulation, upholding Citizens United decision via conservative Supreme Court picks, rolling back environmental regulations and preventing new ones from becoming law) have been done to promote big business and help the rich. To the surprise of traditional republicans, the grotesque face of Trump emotionally connected with enough people so that they now enthusiastically support Trump even if they did not initially. The epitome of the data, this post election turn from reluctant Trump voter to passionate supporter is, tragically, Lindsey Graham. Mitt Romney seems almost there now too. They have abandoned their values, our countries’s values, for the sake of business and protecting the rich. Regular people benefit in the short run from jobs but, their long run outlook is bleak.
Even the tensions with Iran, China and renewed nuclear race with Russia are all designed to help the defense industry. It’s about helping big business and the rich no matter the face that is put on to get elected. At least the act was prettier in the past (e.g., “compassionate conservatism” of GW Bush, “it’s morning in America, again” of Reagan).
1
Just wait for the tariffs to kick in and the stock market fall.
China has just said it will buy NO American agricultural products. As in zero.
I’m seeing my broker tomorrow to attempt to shield myself for the fall, trump lovers, keep propping it up for me for just on more week.
2
Do the Democrats have a candidate who can win? I look at the offerings and don't see anyone I'd feel comfortable giving my vote to.
7
Trump's new favorable ratings have much more to do with Democrat ineptitude in startong impeachment inquiries officoally than with trump.
Pelosi's caution in not taking him on is exactly what is making him appear strong. The Democrats cannot act anywhere with success. Democrats can only be liked by those who see a danger in trump, not by any Democrat candidate's strength or vision.
Obama looked good because Bush was appalling. But Obama could not deal with trump and so far there is no Democrat who could.
This is what an independent voter sees. Its completely depressing.
3
We all see the long list of reasons why DJT is not qualified for this job. I've resolved that his popularity is primarily because he's a familiar character, he's fallible (so a likeable underdog) and a successful conman. Drilled down, all the sensible reasons that can be shown not to elect him just do not make a difference to enough Americans. He's built a cult of personality.
Right. Booming economy, a scary bad slate of Democratic candidates who are either half dead (the once formidable Joe Biden) or embrace loony ideas like the decriminalization of illegal immigration, and a Democratic house that under Nancy Pelosi is too scared to exercise its constitutional authority -- all conspire to give Donald Trump a real chance at reelection.
I would argue that we're making exactly the same mistakes we made in 2016, *combined* with the mistakes the Republicans made in their own primary.
The way out of this is obvious -- a more economically populist approach that would appeal to all, rather than a leftist social justice warrior approach that will alienate moderates and even some of us liberals.
But as four years ago, we seem to be doing our best to lose this thing.
4
We are inundated with polls anymore. I’ve decided that unless polling methods, sample size, and methods used to assure poll is representative of all Americans are clearly stated...... I’m not giving them any attention at all.
1
Well if I wasn’t depressed enough before, I certainly am now. I am so fortunate that I am old. I think the next 2-4 generations really have their work cut out for them.
5
Opinion polls aren’t about taking opinions they about setting them. I believe in the truth but it depends on who I’m hearing it from.
1
What's going to matter most in the November election (barring any exogenous shocks such as Russian interference or the "Comey effect") are the suburban voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is unsurprising that Trump's job approval ratings have stayed within a band since the election but it is equally problematic for him that they haven't improved. Everything else remaining equal (turnout levels, impeachment inquiries etc.,) it still comes down to the electoral college and key swing districts in key swing states. Northeastern and southwestern districts in my home state (Pa.) in particular will be pivotal as in 2016. They went heavily for Trump to counteract the urban votes in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Right now, Trump would need +15 in these key districts to win the state (as before) but is polling single digits or losing in some cases today. That spells trouble for team GOP in good old Pa. .
4
Trump got 62,984,828 votes in 2016, more than any Republican has ever gotten.
Given the roaring economy and a weak Democratic lineup there’s no reason to think he won’t get to 70,000,000.
7
I find it interesting statistics for employment do not yet reflect the decline in job openings. Interesting but not surprising.
So Trump's approval rating is up? That is also interesting, as I know liberals and conservatives, democrats, republicans and independents, in every region of the nation.
I do not know a single person who has a positive opinion of Donald Trump - regardless of political party, ideology, demographic.
I believe the forces that worked effectively to manipulate the Electoral College swing states just enough - by 72,000 votes- for Trump to overcome a 3 million vote deficit - have moved on.
They tell you the economy is never better, even though the Fed and other global central banks are reducing interest rates to stave off recession.
The tariff war, currency depreciation, and retaliation are crushing global markets.
Trump appoints family members and loyalists to positions of great power despite a lack of competence, so manipulating numbers and spinning propaganda is Trump 2.0.
The economy is going into a recession directly because of Trump's devastating economic policies, coming from the man who has bankrupted more companies than any other person in modern history.
He has lost more money than any other American, though managed to retain wealth through failing to pay bills and fraudulent conveyance in bankruptcy.
Look at Putin after nearly 20 years as leader of Russia. The people suffer, not Putin.
25
I won a bottle of single malt scotch whiskey on the result of the last presidential election, a bet I would have been most happy to lose. If anyone is interested, unfortunately, I would bet a case of single malt this time around. Any takers?
4
Pure conjecture. Nate has lost his fastball. This article trades facts for supposition. The guess work is terrific. But take notice, Nate’s theorizing ignores the amount of trickery and theft that went on in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016.
Everyone should be aware that Trump and his tin machine is out to steal the election again.
Be forewarned: Guard the vote. Not the polling data.
10
In my local area, well, at my morning cafe, I’m taking any and all bets with my political friends against trump winning next year, double or nothing the taking of the Senate by the Dems, thus far, no one will take my bet.
2
Didn't the media, based on polls, predict a win for Hilary in 2016, almost up to the announcement of the election results? I still remember the stunned expressions of some of the tv commentators, as well as my own disbelief, because I too had been fooled by the polls and the talking heads who followed them.
6
Seeing as how our voting machines are not the best arbiters of truth, since they can clearly be manipulated in various ways, I can only imagine how these polls might be affected as well.
Basically, nothing in the era of Trump speaks as real truth to me.
9
I’ve been reading the comments and have focused on those supporting Trump’s re-election, especially those who did not support him in 2016. His new supporters put much emphasis on the purported open border/noncriminalization of illegal entry arguments touted by the more liberal Democratic candidates, as well as Medicare for all, no private option, coverage for illegals also supported by these same liberal candidates. It seems like the first 2 Democratic debates have indeed scared a portion of middle of the road Americans. Democrats need to move back towards the middle or any lofty goals will have to wait at least 4 more years.
14
I believe in good government. Good government is not possible with this Administration. Even though every professional political scientist knows that this President is illegitimate because of foreign government interference during the campaign.
Now, because his removal from office would be destabilizing to the social order, most members of his party are keeping quiet because they think the government and foreign relations is too fragile to risk speaking out on the Presidents policies or behavior. Most are just waiting for his certain defeat and they don't want to lose their own seat by calling attention to their selves.
I think most of the GOP members of Congress who were opposed to Mr. Trump being nominated or being elected have decided to be very quiet until this sad chapter in U.S. history comes to an end.
2018 turned out as everyone expected. The House majority was anticipated and there were not enough GOP seats in play in the Senate to change the majority. 2020 will be different in the Senate and I project that the Senate will flip to the Democrats, and we can start to repair the damage. I think after the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina primaries you will see a significant change in the approval rating.
2
Nathan,
Your analysis is flawed. You state that Trump’s personal favorability rating has surged 10 points according to estimates from Upshot. You’re apparently basing that estimate off the Gallup and Youtube polls cited above. That surge was pre-election to immediately post-election. However, you have no way of distinguishing new voters from voters who voted in 2016. That’s an important distinction because there are many reasons why people who may have had an unfavorable view of Trump In 2016 nonetheless voted for him on Election Day. After all, I had an unfavorable view of Clinton, and I still voted for her. What is the basis for your assertion that Republicans were less likely to vote for Trump? There is evidence, in fact, that key demographic segments of the Democratic vote were suppressed. Lest we forget that you’re still talking about an approval rating in the low 40’s as well. So, then, you assert without evidence, that Trump’s job approval rating numbers are more important than his approval numbers. Again, based on what evidence? Until you begin citing your sources and defending your assertions with evidence, your conclusion that “millions” more Americans approve of Trump now is suspect at best. At worst, it takes on the appearance of fear-mongering.
1
This poll doesn’t matter. All that matters are the bought and paid for electors.
3
Could it just be that his supporters have come out of the closet? There isn’t any correlation between liking him and who voted for him.
3
I did not vote for Trump.
However, I do appreciate how Israel is being supported against hostile actions from her neighbors. The sovereignty of this nation is paramount in my opinion.
6
The intriguing question is not answered: why would anyone save the very wealthy (who have benefited financially) have a more favorable opinion of this man?
10
Comparing vote share and job approval is apples and oranges: two different things. And 46.5 vs 45.9 is probably within the margin of error, not higher. Please take a remedial statistics course, soon.
1
Let's be honest, Trump is a historically unpopular president. But he seems to enjoy a bizarre loyalty from corporate media, in spite of his calling them "the enemy of the people". I don't think people realize how disastrous another four years will be. Democracy hangs in the balance, climate change will not wait for deniers and fossil fuel shills to leave office. The idea that poorly educated rural voters because of the electoral college have the ability to give an unbalanced narcissist a mandate to destroy the planet for my kids and grandkids is infuriating.
10
Rotary telephones for Trump, the oldsters that have come out of their shell to voice support for an incompetent racist will find themselves overwhelmed by the mass of disaffected mobile device carrying 21st century justice seekers in November 2020.
Racism aside the economy is President wrong way peach fuzz’s sole underpinning when running for re-election, a burgeoning trade war with China accelerated by their recent currency devaluation will damper that outlook, Ceaseless, somewhat effective bullying of the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates will leave no room to bail the U.S. out of a recession via further interest rate reductions. The net result may be a victorious Democratic President stuck with rising unemployment and a cratering stock market of his predecessors making.
Should this scenario sound familiar, it’s a bad remake of George Bush’s gift to America on the eve of Barack Obama’s inauguration.
I suggest newly uncovered landline supporters of Trump start reading the WAPO,
NYT, The Economist, or the Constitution. Either or all will disabuse them of their newly uncovered support for an ignorant would be despot. In this day and age a landline will not be stout enough to pull America toward a safe shore. So cut the frayed rope and get a phone with a GPS that points toward democracy, long term economic health and a semblance of societal justice.
5
I'm a bit confused by these results. What happened to all of the Trump voters who shifted to the Democrats in the 2018 midterms?
6
The Republicans lost 40 House seats in the recent midterms. They gained in the Senate.
Obama lost 63 House seats in his first midterms. He still won reelection.
What does this tell you?
1
I guess when you hit such historically low approval ratings, and required a foreign adversary to win by 72,000 votes despite a 3 million popular vote deficit, even dismal looks grand.
3
One thing Trump knows how to do is market Trump.
President Obama and congressional Democrats saved the economy from a great Depression in 2009 and 2010. We went from losing 800,000 jobs a month when Bush left to gaining over 200,000 jobs a month. Remarkable! An improvement of over 1 million jobs a month. Remarkable! They saved the , Automobile industry, Real Estate and the economy from a Great Depression. GDP rose over 11% from a low of NEGATIVE 8.9%. Remarkable! Problem the Dems didn't tell anybody. They failed to market their accomplishments. We have steady job growth ever since. Unemployment and the budget deficit were cut in half and the stock market more than doubled during the Obama years. Remarkable! But again no marketing. Today the Dow is about where is was when President Obama's tax and budget polices ended January 2018. Sadly the budget deficit has doubled and the national debt is growing faster than ever. What does that mean for the future?
29
@MrUniteUs The reason why the Democrats never told anyone about this remarkable recovery you talk about is because it never happened. Delusional comes to mind. The GDP under Obama was at near zero. The Dow is no where near where Obama's tax & budget policies ended.
As Trump would say: Sad. Very, very sad.
5
Some of my confusion interpreting these data relative to his re-election was forgetting that he will for sure lose the popular vote, as he did by >3 million in 2016, indicating the lack of a nationwide majority of support, yet the tyranny of the electoral college is the reason we’re having this conversation at all.
47
@Jordan
The tyranny would occur if NYC and California determined the result of every presidential election by piling up millions of votes and disenfranchising the rest of the country.
1
In statistics, there is so called - self selection bias, which means the sources and/or methods of data collection are flawed or intentionally biased. For example, phone call surveys can be highly skewed because the people surveyed tend to be older age with phones at home and time of hour called...etc. It’s can also be that the calls made were to a certain geographical areas that over represent one group and under represent others...etc.
The bottom line is, take a grain of salt and don’t blindly trust what data are being presented without more details of how they are being collected and compiled.
16
@Francesco As someone who conducts such polls (not the ones mentioned here) for a living, I can say that survey designs incorporate such basic assumptions and correct for imbalances by using quotas for age, self-identified ethnicity, zip-code, even phone type.
8
@Ek Right, and that’s why all the polls assuring us Clinton was a lock in 2016 were so accurate. I’m surprised the entire notion of polling wasn’t thrown out the window after that election. Why are we still taking this seriously?
16
@NYCJP
Actually, the polls were pretty close. They never gave Clinton that much of a lead.
In the end, it was low Democratic enthusiasm and turnout, not to mention the electoral college, that gave Trump the election.
If the Democrats had come out in the same numbers they did for Obama, the polls would have been almost spot on.
1
Two reasons why Trump is more popular than he was in 2016.
1. He won. Most people who voted for him voted for him expecting him to lose. The media makes it seem like there was a landslide majority for him, there wasn't. It was a well managed vote by his team and a gross failure by the Clinton team.
2. The economy has not collapsed, we are not in a major war. It usually takes 2 years or so for a President's impact to show up in the economy. It is like turning the biggest oil tanker in the world, the effect of the turning the wheel shows up with a major lag in time and distance. Witness Bush's tax stimulus taking a couple of years to kick in, Bush Sr's recession was the end of the growth cycle started in the Reagan administration, Obama's first 2 years were still a hangover from Bush's tenure, and so on.
This leads to a truth the media is not talking about, yet. Like it or not, Trump's fans are going to find his economy is not very pretty. Unlike the 2008 crisis where China was able to (and had to) pump in hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure projects and propping up state-run banks, the US Federal reserve pumped in $14T into the financial system, and so did the EU, Japan and other central banks (Quantitative Easing.) This time there is much lesser available to throw into the mix.
As of today we are seeing a "beggar thy neighbor" policy of countries devaluing their currencies. Trump will take the bait and jawbone the Fed some more. Nov 2020 is far away.
15
@Suppan Adding to what you say Trump's policies as well as his actions have sown seeds that are now coming up. The tariff's against China and others have given these countries reasons to develop markets elsewhere. Huawei, which has the best G5 technology in the world will be accepted in the market. The U.S. technology which is more expensive is a late comer. U.S. anti-immigration policy is discouraging more of those that excel to look elsewhere.
Trump's Iran policy has made it vastly more difficult to help stabilize the region including Afghanistan raising costs to the U.S. His Iran policy has also alienated much of the EU and increased the cost to the U.S. of addressing other threats. The embarrassing failed coup in Venezuela supported by the U.S. has weakened the capacity to stabilize the nearby region, which has been a major contributor to people fleeing to the U.S.
Trump's non-climate change policy has opened the door to Chinese global leadership in this issue, which will have economic and human capital ramifications drawing to scientists away from the U.S.
Trump's total failure in taking any steps to address infrastructure and long term competitiveness of the economy points to the possibility of the evaporation of the "Trump boom" as global conditions worsen and job creation declines. The picture does not look pretty for the next president who will have to cope with a mess with weaker capacity than Obama left for Trump.
The anomalous Presidential approval rating increase in telephone poll vs. online polling data could be explained by respondents who still answer land-line cold calls. Who still has a land line and who still answers the phone?
17
@Bar1 These surveys would target both cells and landlines and would include quotas on age, gender, zip code--even phone type--and selecting questions to ensure as balanced a sample as possible.
5
@Bar1 yup. I’m 53 and our children (millennials) don’t have landlines. Our friends (empty-nesters) who’ve downsized also don’t have landlines .
People here are perplexed that Trump can have more support since 2016. They focus on his character. I say, Follow the money. We know that Trump's tax law favored corporations and the wealthiest people in our country. Maybe not so many new supporters in that group. The tax reform law also had goodies for small business owners and professional corporations. E.g., pass-through tax treatment for professional corporations. It may be that people in that latter group have raised their opinion of Trump. They don't like him personally but they like the sizable increase in their bank accounts.
15
@DJY -- people would be perplexed in San Francisco. They probably dont know a single working class person. But if you know anything about the new tax law beyond what's been repeated in Democratic talking points, there is a provision that doubles the standard deduction, a handy item for those whose incomes are low enough that they don't own their own home and therefore dont itemize. It cut my household's tax liability in half. I assure you there are more supporters in my group than in your wealthy .01%. Oh, and we have jobs now (not high tech; you dont see us where we work) and higher wages.
25
@PL Yes. Absolutely a positive change in the tax returns is important enough to trump other concerns for a sizeable number of Americans.
4
@PL this tax policy disproportionately benefits red states at the expense of the blue states that have been the net contributors to the system. Those states were singled out by the GOP by eliminating the deductions on state and local taxes. This was a deliberate move to give to those states that were already takers of federal largesse by taking from the states that were already net contributors. Where was Joe the Plumber when this “redistribution of wealth” was taking place? Didn’t matter anyway, this tax law plunged us into even more massive debt because they lied that it would “pay for itself”. The same way they lied us into wars with Iraq and Afghanistan. And, as always, the unwashed masses bought it hook line and sinker.
5
It's an interesting graph, if not strictly possible. 10% of the electorate did not change their mind the day after the election.
Perhaps a better explanation is that the graph is showing what happens when decency leaves the room and the new occupant gives people permission to express their darker impulses.
Otherwise known as fanning the flames. Very bad stuff has always been with us and in us. Some leaders help keep it in check and some don't.
29
Hard to believe. But it is so easy to manipulate the numbers in a survey or something like a medical study. One study I was re visiting this week had the claim that the drug in question had reduced deaths from heart disease by 54%. Amazing. Then you look at the actual number and 12 people died in the group that tested the drug and 12 people died in the non drug use. So after some magic number working you get a 54% drop in the deaths by using this (actually deadly) drug.
14
Looking at the first graph, it could be interpreted that many people felt obliged to think well of a new American president they disliked so intensely, once he had won. But to keep this in context, Trump's favorability is none the less very low - still - for a first term president.
13
@JCam This is true of most presidents when they first take office. Their job approval starts out high during the honeymoon period and drops off, Obama started at 64%. Trump started lower than normal then dipped and has stayed at his relatively low numbers.
9
Registered votes reach by telephone are a very different demographic than people who don't even know what a landline is anymore. As I recall, GOP supporters tend to be registered in greater proportions and telephone interview reflect an older demographic if they are based on landlines and substantial work was not done to augment the sample with calls to cell numbers. It inflates Trump's numbers unless properly weighted to reflect that. The discrepancy could, in part, be methodological especially given small differences between online and call modes.
30
Donald Trump is still wildly popular in a number of places. But national polls do not reflect the disproportionate power of voters in certain key swing states. Trump won the Electoral College because of 77,744 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received a total of 132,476 votes in those three states. If just 59% of those Jill Stein voters had instead cast their votes for the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton would be president.
As of July 19th, Trump's Morning Consult disapproval rating was 55% in Wisconsin, 54% in Michigan and 52% in Pennsylvania. Not since April of 2017 has Trump's approval rating been above 50% in any of those three states.
62
@Big Electric Cat -- It was that close in those three states for some very good reasons.
Don't do it again, or the same thing could happen.
Do what? Democrats really need to ask, because they still don't seem to get it.
2
@Big Electric Cat I voted for Jill Stein and have zero regrets. Very happy Clinton did not win. The country would be a disaster.
2
@Ari
You mean, like it's not a disaster now.
And I assume that as a Green Party supporter you're okay with the complete gutting of EPA regulations and drilling in the arctic wildlife refuge and the sale of public lands, etc.
Wow! This is really disheartening. I thought as a nation we were better than this. Democratic principles, national security, justice, sense of fairness, honesty, decency, and concern for the environment have all been sacrificed for narrow self-interest. We have lost our moral core.
132
@Ray Barrett, in U.S. history, one of the biggest and most tragic losses of moral core, of fairness, of decency, and of democratic values was when the Democratic Party's leadership actively worked to thwart the presidential candidacy of Sen. Bernie Sanders. All major polls at that time showed him beating Trump by greater margins than Hillary, so you might as well lament and blame the Democratic Party for this presidency.
44
@ErikW65 -- and many of the Bernie voters (assumed to have a moral core) went on to vote for Trump in the general. Ray Barrett, you think Trump voters have lost all sense of fairness, honesty, decency, sacrificed to narrow self-interest. Well, after the Democratic party sacrificed the working class to justice and the environment, starting the long dive to shortened life expectancy, it was about time that self-interest asserted itself in supporting a candidate who restored their economic well-being.
15
@PL The Democratic Party sacrificed the working class alright, but not to justice and the environment. They sold them out to the big money of Wall Street, and the mainstream bigwigs of the party are still doing it.
I'm trying to think how the working class has been restored under Trump. If anything, it's in even more rapid decline with him in charge. It's open season on the consumer; he and the Republicans are ramping up their war on unions; restoring coal was a joke from the start; farmers and steel workers are reeling under Trump's tariff's and thousands won't make it; the thousands of manufacturing jobs Trump promised to bring back from abroad during his campaign haven't appeared; Trump's tax cuts were aimed at his cronies in the 1% while working people got a relative pittance, if anything. That's just a small sampling of the damage Trump has done to the working class with more to come if he's reelected.
In reality, Trump has nothing but contempt for the working class and his lip service to them is strictly to get their vote, after which they once again become the forgotten people.
3
I did not vote for Trump.
However, I must admit that I appreciate that the law is being justly applied in Mississippi. Depriving legal residents of jobs should be a priority...these companies must pay a wage that attracts qualified persons.
41
@Charlie
I was just wondering if any of the employers were arrested? If not, I'm not sure the law was being justly applied.
58
@Charlie
Just a few years ago there was a story on NPR about meat packing plants down south that offered $25 an hour in an effort to attract an American workforce. The Americans hired quit after either 4 hours, 1 day or 1 week. The Hispanic and African immigrant workers remained on the job for years. Let's face it: there are simply some jobs Americans won't do either because it's hard or because they feel it's beneath them. I think immigration should be done legally, but let's be honest: we need both legal and those who arrive illegally to make our nation run. Plus, several immigration policies spoken about would only allow PhDs and highly-skilled tech workers. Pretty sure they're not going to work in a meat packing or rendering plant.
3
@Charlie
How about throwing the owners of "these companies" in jail for illegal hiring practices, instead of their workers?
3
Even without having the facts at hand about sample size, I'll go out on a limb and say there is no statistical difference between the poll showing 46.4 and another 45.9. The actual swing occurred immediately after the election and has remained steady since. Perhaps those that held their nose and voted for "the lesser of two evils" felt vindicated in their choice. To make a leap of faith that they will not do the same again - and that the outcome may fall to the Dems this time - could be risky.
13
@JKN
The continual holding of rallies shows that Trump is not taking any support for granted. He has continued his campaign mode after inauguration, much to the bewilderment/insults of chattering class.
1
The DEMS better find a legitimate candidate and pronto. Because this Democrat might just stay home rather than vote for the likes of Warren, Sanders, Mayor Pete and others. Right now, I see no one on the DEMs side that I actually like and, believe me, that says a lot. Not going to vote for a socialist and not going to vote for some one with limited experience.
I sense four more years of Trump and I am not sure that is even close to being a good thing.
45
@Seth Your post was interesting to me, because there is such a lot of variety in the field of Democratic candidates, that I figured there was something for everyone (moderate with experience = Biden and probably Harris; progressive with experience = Warren/Sanders; progressive but sounds like a moderate, in a good way = Buttigieg, etc.). It could be instructive to folks for you to voice what you are looking for more specifically--it would be to me at least. Also, I am curious how many others share your opinion of general dissatisfaction with all candidates. I am genuinely curious here, not trying to start an argument.
22
@Seth
You should really do a lot more reading concerning what democracy, capitalism, socialism, and Republican hypocrisy have in common when it comes to politics because there are a number of ways to interpret GOP policies as 'socialism' for the wealthy corporate oligarchy and their version of government-in-the-bedroom-intrusions as Communism under the worst dictators.
None of the so-called socialist programs being urged by Democrats are ruining Democracy or Capitalism in the myriad industrial nations in which they are being practiced. Quite the contrary, social/economic mobility, longevity, health, murder rates, innovation, general prosperity for the majority of citizens (i.e., income inequality) - all kinds of metrics and comparisons show America to be sorely trailing other nations with regard to quality of life, especially compared to what the trendlines used to be.
Please less attention to the terminology and propaganda and focus on the results and outcomes - the truth is that pretty much nothing is black & white when it comes to political economics no matter what one side wants to claim about the other. It used to be that Americans knew how to compromise and simply strived to do what was best for all and our future, even if the going was a little bumpy along the way.
2
@Seth I don't, and I think nobody should, care what you think if you don't even vote. It's clear why you sense four more years of Trump; you don't vote while his supporters likely will. If you don't vote, it's the same as voting for him.
1
It's not surprising that telephone polls would show higher job approval ratings than online surveys. People reachable by phone, esp landlines, tend to skew older than those who respond to online surveys.
68
@PL
Totally. Landlines are dead letter offices...only old people use them any more.
@Brian -- and they dont count?
On November 9, 2016 Trump was excoriated by the losing side as a monster unleashed. Today we have near record stock market highs, near record low unemployment and the fewest American combat casualties in a quarter century. And those same prognosticators of Imminent Doom can’t figure out why Trump has gained some support. Fascinating.
61
@John D the Stock Market is hardly an indicator, for the average American, of the economy. Co's have inflated their values by buying back their stocks, depriving investors of dividends, to enrich the CEOs whose bonus are tied to options. "When shares go up in value, executives can make a fortune from options. But when share prices fall, investors lose out while executives are no worse off... Some companies let executives swap old option shares for new, lower-priced shares when the company's shares fall in value.
....the incentive to keep the share price motoring upward so that options will stay in the money encourages executives to focus exclusively on the next quarter and ignore shareholders' longer-term interests... prompt top managers to manipulate the numbers to make sure the short-term targets are met."
I'll give you low unemployment; but, "For 2 adult, 2 children families, the minimum wage covers 64.6% of the living wage at best in Washington and 41.6% at worst in Virginia. This means that families earning between the poverty threshold ($25K) and the living wage ($67K) on average they frequently fall short of the income and assistance they require to meet their basic needs."
Combat casualties dropped to near record lows by 2015, and have remained stable since then. I guess its a benefit that Trump hasn't actually got us into a war
77
@John D
Trump inherited an economy on an upswing from Obama, tho neither he nor many republicans acknowledge that.
More important; the 2 major items in his economic 'plan' will cost us in the future: (1) tax cuts will increase the debt (2) cutting environmental regulations will result in more pollution and people with illnesses, especially breathing related.
Your use of the term 'Imminent Doom' may be brilliant sarcasm to you, but not to people with heart & lung problems.
I agree: Fascinating.
3
@LesISmorr... and 45 is still a "monster unleashed" as far as many of us are concerned. I see no good or decent thing coming out of that administration.... the sooner he and his cohorts are gone, the better. The damage they have done will take decades to repair. I find myself in a constant state of despair and depression over this... just when you think he couldn't sink any lower, or do something worse.. he does.
2
I think this poll misses an important aspect of human behavior. Think of a voter who didn't like Trump but voted for him anyway, perhaps out of Party loyalty or other motivation. After the election results were published, there were more people moaning than applauding. Our voter takes offense and begins to justify his or her backing of Trump. Over time that choice gains more and more points of rationalization. That describes what the poll data shows, but it is likely that our voter will not ardently support a second round of Trump.
20
@Don those who didn’t mind trump now seem to love him. I don’t agree with your conclusion.
When will politicians/media understand not to trust polling data? In elections across the world in the last 2-3 years, polling data has shown to be an unreliable indicator of the eventual outcome.
48
@David B
You said it. When this very newspaper insisted day after day that Hillary had an above 80% chance of a win and the result was a debacle, I will never trust *any* poll again.
The Dow is down badly this week. If this continues, I would redo this survey. The economy is the only thing keeping Trump alive. If we start seeing that the economy's strength is illusory, watch what happens to Trump's numbers.
38
@macman2 I think Trump's appeal, unfortunately, runs much deeper than the economy. Many conservative voters may dislike him personally, but they like that he plunked conservative judges into the SC. They like that he acts out against the perceived strictures of political correctness, even if they may not like everything he says. And, of course, many like his harsh stance on immigration and gestalt towards governance (deregulation, etc.). They wanted a conservative and they got one. I honestly don't think his approval would change much even if the economy tanked--because his base would still think he was the best option out there. Dems have not been able to enact policies recently enough to really show voters what is possible under a more progressive administration, so it will be a tough sell.
12
@PL
Keep up the trade war with China and workers are going to see their more ox gore than they believed possible. Who will they blame then?
@PL
Unless it drives us into a recession.
Oh. And don't forget that China owns about 25% of our total debt and that if they continue to refuse to buy American agricultural products, China could drive many of our farms into bankruptcy.
We may damage China more than China damages us but then again Xi isn't running for reelection anytime soon and I suspect that Chinese citizens are more willing to bear some short term pain for long term economic dominion than we are.
I'd love to see a breakdown to include education, income, zip code, etc., broken down by areas of job growth, stagnation, etc. The number of new deplorables could not have increased that much, something else must be afoot.
52
@Elias Guerrero
There are very few deplorables, as defined by Hillary, and certainly not the 47% of people who voted for Trump as Hillary asserted. The other 53% of people who voted for Trump were not economic losers. Hillary was off in her assumptions about the people who did not vote for her.
The more intelligent, the better educated and the more prosperous people become, the more likely they are to vote Republican. That's why the majority of individuals with college degrees voted for Trump, not Hillary. The majority of voters who lack a high school diploma voted for Hillary.
Democrats had large majorities for decades, until they started evicting entire groups for failing litmus tests. They held a House majority for 40 years, from the 1950's though the Clinton administration. They held the Presidency for 20 years from 1933 to 1953.
But as the number of people with college degrees increased, Democrats lost ground.
Those in favor of a strong national defense: walk softly but carry a big stick were the first evicted, followed by those who did not believe that abortion on demand was a human right. American Democrats do not recognize the far left position they have taken. In most modern democracies, elective abortions are only legal during the first 15 weeks of gestation.
Think about this: three times as many blacks voted for Trump as voted for McCain or Romney. The combination of Democrat advocacy for illegal aliens plus their stance on abortion has consequences.
1
@Elias Guerrero
Trump's reign of demagoguery teaches us much more about America than it does about Trump. This country isn't what it used to be, and that isn't a complement.
@Elias Guerrero nationwide prosperity and a positive tone about Americans goes a long way. Ask Reagan.
1
This is yet more evidence that the Biden/keep the middle of the road approach by the Dems will fail again, just as it did in 2016. There are very few votes in play on the right. It all those folks to the left who don't bother voting because they don't see the Dems really standing up for working Americans who hold victory in their hands.
A lot of Dems still seek to marginalize progressives because they somehow believe that this will scare away moderates. The problem with that is that there are far too few of these voters left to win. Even if they won everyone of those votes that was in play, Trump still wins.
Now, motivate the tens of millions of voters who have been let down by empty promises of change from Dems and made a habit of staying home and you're talking real change. 2018 was proof of how close we are and how much can be accomplished simply by getting people to vote their interests.
And that's what Republicans fear. Everyone showing up at the polls for a change. That is why the Reps take every opportunity to suppress voter turnout - it allows a minority party to hold sway when it should be going down in ignominious defeat.
60
@Mike -- Exactly. However, it is about more than just voters.
Donors will pay a lot more to get one or another flavor of Republican.
They won't pay for Bernie. Fortunately, Bernie found a way around that for his own campaign.
However, most of the Democratic candidates need that money to be contenders.
In addition to them, the party establishment itself needs big donor money to pay for the party apparatus and consultants. They only place to get it is by being the more reasonable Republican.
Hence, they disregard voters for money.
3
@Mike -- the trouble with Biden is that while he has positioned himself as middle of the road in hopes of appealing to white working class voters in the general election, his relentless attacks on Trump (required to win the primary) are turning off those same voters. Because Democrats, such as the many commentators here, apply all the evil they impute to Trump on his voters ("deplorables"), any attack on Trump will be perceived by those voters as an attack on them. As the radical element has taken over the Democratic party (as seen in the recent prominence of the squad), more moderate voters, including some Democrats, feel they have nowhere else to go but Trump.
2
@PL
Interesting spin, but the folks who most often have no place or person to turn to in American elections are those who would vote to the left - if only that were a choice on the ballot in front of them.
For all the bleating about "socialism" one would think there was actually something radical about the Dem platform.
There isn't. But only in the US are concepts like the right to employment and just compensation, universal healthcare, and a justice system that is fair to all, not just the wealthy, are all concepts most of the world embraces. Yet the mere mention of their need brands one somewhere to the left of Pol Pot.
Really?
Some folks seem to not get enough of the scripted reality delivered by Fox "News" so they someone think Joe Biden's a card carrying something or other? That AOC is Che Guevera in a skirt? Come on, that is such palpable nonsense it makes me glad that kindergardeners aren't old enough to vote. But millions of adults do?
The fantasy of white "oppression" (the polite way of talking about "white replacement" if you're D. Trump and need to position yourself to the left of something) may attract millions of voters who seem to not care about any nation but a lily-white one. But they remain a minority who any fair-minded person will hope don't win again based on a minority of votes.
New voters? They're still mostly on the left. Who will wake this sleeping giant before it's too late for a just America? Even many D's fall short of representing us.
1
Conservative judges, tax cuts and deregulation, essentially uncompromising gun rights and anti-abortion advocacy, and so on - look beyond his personal awfulness, many of his supporters do because of these sorts of policy choices, which are typical for the GOP. I can't stand him and will vote against him and against just about any GOPer anywhere (at least as long as Gorsuch remains a member of the Supreme Court) but the opposition better look for someone who's not just "more popular than Hillary" because with the GOP apparently sticking tightly to Trump, the 2020 election is looking like a close fight no matter what.
47
@brian
There are many establishment Republicans who did not vote for Trump: the entire Bush family voted for Hillary, and did everything possible to get Hillary elected, including turning over their Trump opposition research to Hillary as well as releasing a ten year old tape of Trump locker room talk.
Trump was elected by people smart enough to know that Merrick Garland was a threat to the constitution and rule of law and by independents, libertarians and the disaffected working class who finally saw that the fake elite were laughing at them.
Is there any consideration of just who is being polled? The graph's numbers from telephone polling are higher than for online polling. How are the telephone numbers obtained? If it is randomly, the numbers may have less meaning because, given the abundant spam calls lately, many of us don't answer the telephone if we don't recognize the number calling. The poll may be of people who answer all calls (and are more likely to be scammed.) A poll of the gullible isn't a reliable poll.
It may not be much different for the online polling numbers.
32
Trump was not my pick for President in the 2016 Primaries. But in the end, I reluctantly voted for the man. Staying home was not an option and to not cast a ballot is, in my opinion un-American. Regarding the uptick in his approval rating, nasty double entendre tweets aside, the economy has improved as he promised. Many groups of people now find it easier to get a job, stop receiving aid, and the like. What is not to like? His tax plan, not the postcard for he promised, made a big difference in many lives. True, the wealthy benefitted but so did the middle class and lower middle class (including my family) and for that I am grateful. What then is there not to like? To read in many stories across the internet that I am worse off now than before is simply wrong. I work, my taxes are lower, life is good even if the 'messenger' has a distasteful air about him from time to time. And while this week has been rough regarding the stock market, investors small and large benefitted immensely during Trump's first couple of years as record after record was set. During those years, the stock market was the one area where no one in media or politics be they D or R or I could find any fault or condemn Trump. It is possible that the most virulent of anti-Trumpers were reaping benefits. And when people's lives change for the better through the efforts of a President keeping campaign promises rather than ignoring them after the election, their political alliance will also change.
62
@old sarge yes, and the national debt has ballooned. Suddenly the party of fiscal conservatism doesn't think twice about adding trillions to the deficit for a tax cut. Nobody - absolutely no group of voters, least of all multi-national corporations and wealthy people - needed a tax cut of any sort, since the economy was already doing extremely well in 2016 and still on an upward trajectory. The tax cut and deregulation are not the reason a reason why the economy is doing well at the moment, because the economical effect of policy always appears with a few years of delay - that's how long it takes for the effect of the changes to ripple out through the economy of a large country.
23
@old sarge 83% of the Tax Cut went to corporations and the 1% - meanwhile the middle and lower classes were given a token break while many others suffered in the form of deductions that were taken from them. Corporations used the tax cut not to hire more Americans or increase manufacturing but to buy back their stock. It was a flawed tax bill - they should have tied any corporate tax cut to hiring and investment in the USA. But the GOP does not care about you; they care about giving business what they want and running roughshod over us and our environment. Trump is complicit in cutting back regulations that hamper business and were protecting us. Now he is poisoning the air and water, and allowing outlawed insecticides to be used again, while cutting the budget in the fight against dometic white supremacists.
What's not to like? PLENTY.
5
@old sarge I suppose if all you're looking at is economics, you could make a case for Trump. Personally, I think he gave the economy a sugar rush with the tax cut and his administration continued it with cutting interest rates. It feels like hollow economic progress to me. Millions are still working 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. That aside, you are ignoring the utter lack of principle or morality in this administration. They are dragging our collective conscious through the mud and it is rotten to the core. By extension, it is making this country rotten too. We've sunk so low. To trade a few dollars for our dignity is not a fair trade in my book. What we've lost in a matter of a few years will take twice as long to recover--if we recover at all. Seems short sighted and a bit selfish. But to each his own, I suppose.
6
Who in the world actually picks up their phone for a live poll on anyone? By their nature live and online polls are skewed by the type of person who will actually respond. Out there in the dark matter of polling are a lot of untouchable non-respondents. Show me the margins of error and for safety, keep them wide. In the world of Donald Trump there is no chance of plotting long term trends. At the end of the day, it is just constant noise.
26
Answer: Liberals and other people who generally feel good about themselves and like to talk about it with unknown professionals from distant, cosmopolitan places (as opposed to the obese, diabetic or underemployed that may be managing their pain with opioids). Sure, the numbers were a tad skewed way in 2016.... (And Bernie and Tulsi will be the ticket to beat in 2020.)
1
@richard wiesner
According to the polls, Hillary is president.
Excuse me, no reason to the think he's limited to the support he experience in 2016? Not even one. Polling rather than economics may prove the dismal science. First, this article assumes the opposition to be static. Candidate and platforms rejecting a dystopic view of the future may result in greater turnout than 2016.
Additionally polling this far removed from the election more fun reading than predictive.
8
When it comes to voter remorse I have yet to run across one single person who voted for Hillary who now wishes he or she had voted for Donnie, nor have I found Democrat lawmakers in any great number switching parties though numerous Republicans have switched. Look at the number of GOP members of Congress are hanging it up. Despite the national GOP voter suppression blitz, I suspect, barring some really huge event, the GOP will suffer huge losses at both the state and national levels in 2020. I saw it happen in 1964 and it took the so called "experts" completely off guard.
48
@Jay BeeWis
Republicans welcomed the grass roots TEA party candidates in 2010, who rose up in opposition to the single party rule of Democrats. The platform was simple: Taxed Enough Already. They wanted a smaller federal government, lower taxes, and stronger states to deliver services, other than those like national defense that were more logically federal responsibility.
It did not take long before establishment Republicans adopted the Democrat rhetoric that the TEA partiers, unorganized, or the freedom caucus, were extremists. Which was funny, because their platform was the traditional GOP party line.
The retirements from GOP elective office are the old line Republicans who are being replaced by conservatives.
There are few Trump voters who regret voting for Trump. Most of us are pleasantly surprised that he has honored so many of his campaign promises.
The two major ones not yet accomplished, immigration reform and the repeal of Obamacare, we blame others. Democrats are unwilling to vote in favor of immigration reform because they fear Republicans will get credit. Partisan activist judges are working to prevent reform. [Had Trump's termination of DACA not been blocked, Congress would have resolved their status in 2017.]
McCain blocked the repeal of O'Care out of spite, so it gets to live on for a few years, twisting in the wind.
The Democrat Party has yet to find a unifying theme or platform to address the conflicting priorities of its diverse interest groups.
14
@Jay BeeWis -- please allow me to introduce myself, I voted for Hillary and very soon regretted it and wished I voted for Donnie. I thought she was clearly the most qualified to be president, but by Election Day, it was almost a tossup. Her disdainful attitude about working people, smugness and insincerity, and vague policy positions made the straightforward boldness of Trump seem attractive. His later successes in cutting regulatory red tape that had been piling in since the 70s, tax cuts -- which did in fact benefit low income taxpayers as well as corporations -- and subsequent jobs boom (with wage growth to boot) convinced me that he has achieved good things for the country. His unconventional approach to foreign policy has produced results in moving relations with North Korea and getting respect from China. ALL of the criticism directed against Trump had been about what he has said (much of it misconstrued), not about what he's actually done. It's not been easy being a Democrat with sympathy for the devil, but I do exist.
1
@Jay BeeWis Yep. You see a lot of Trump voters saying they won't vote for him again. I've yet to find someone that voted against him who said they will. He lost the popular vote by 11 million. He will lose it by 20 million this time... but sadly might still be re-elected.
The "enthusiasm gap" was created by the media. Analyses of the media coverage of Hillary was 90% negative. Trump and Sanders received much better coverage, almost all of it related to crowd size and perceived enthusiasm. There was no analysis, just constant coverage of the horse race. Nearly every mention of Hillary included "email" but no one put it in perspective by talking about how widespread the practice was in government. There was very little discussion of issues, no mention of Sanders' record of passing just one law in 40 years. The problem wasn't Hillary. The media elected trump.
154
@Marlowe
You have got to be kidding Trump got favorable coverage? It is true that he was created by the media, but only because they used him a click bait for ad revenue by constantly laughing at him.
5
@Marlowe the media accurately covered where the enthusiasm was. It wasn’t with Hillary.
3
@Marlowe
But the media did report that Bernie Sanders was called the "Amendment King" because between 1995 and 2007 he had more roll call amendments passed than *ANYBODY*.
So why didn't you mention that?
5
Why should we assume the 2020 Democratic candidate would be more capable than Ms. Clinton who brought an unusually impressive background of major league political experience and acumen. None of the current candidates based on recent “debates” could match her skills.
It may well be that 2020 will be determined not so much on how voters favor/disfavor Pres. Trump but on how they see the Democratic alternative. So far t he alternatives are not filling stadiums or drawing impressive national support or major fund raising. And more than a few are far left of the traditional Party platform. That Pres. Trump has encouraged such a turn of events might well lead him to victory in 2020.
28
@Peter I Berman Capability and skills, including debate skill, are not what win elections for US President. Our elections are decided partly by the state of the economy, and most importantly by raw emotion, by who people "like." Trump is the most hated person ever to hold the office, and deservedly so. That doesn't mean he will lose but your analysis leaves out or minimizes the emotional component, which is the most critical one.
@Peter I Berman I am unsure which of HRC's skills you refer to. She was a poor debater, an unispiring leader, and twice has "shot herself in the foot" as a campaigner. Is she a policy wonk? Yes. But so is Waren and she's 10x more dynamic than HRC; Bernie is 10x more dynamic. Buttigieg has the smarts and poise, but only lacks the experience (in a national setting) Harris has everything needed and a left of moderate approach, as does Booker. And Papa Joe has it all, except for some slips of his memory (on a par with Trump however) but doesn't come across as dynamically as the others; though he can give a good speech (like today), his debate appearance was lacking, but improved from Debate 1 to 2. As far as Dems filling stadiums, not one has used a "rent a crowd" which Trump certainly has.
Every Dem beats trump on Morals and truthfulness, though I will not go so far as to say they are 100% truthful.
And none match her disapproval ratings.
Nothing in this poll shows him going over 47%. How's he supposed to win with that? Moreover, this poll was before El Paso and Dayton, before the "send them back" comments, before the trade war with China went to Defcon 4 as the Chinese decided to retaliate, and before Wall Street took a dive over the past five days.
It's significant, too, that there has been zero change from online polls. So this entire argument is based upon a .5 percent shift only in live interviews. Sorry, I am unimpressed with the argument this can be anything of any significance. Next week's polls are going to see him trending decidedly lower.
69
I’ll hope for that next week, but also I think he actually can win with 47% of the popular vote. And the various problems he’s had recently seem like par for the course.
7
@Carla Because Republicans - particularly Evangelicals vote at much higher rates than Democrats...
1
@Carla
Bill Clinton won in 1992 with 43% of the popular vote. He was up to 46% by 1996. [This is the third time that the stack market has taken a hit "DEFCON 4" because of Trump China policy. It recovers nicely and quickly.]
Online polls are not random pools, and no amount of "adjusting" makes them anything other than interesting in directionality.
Far left-Democrats just aren't trusted by the vast majority of voters though they are quite popular among a big chunk of Democrats. This is a major conundrum.
As for me, I consider myself a very liberal Democrat. If Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren can win the election & manage to implement their plans, I will be ecstatic. But I also know it's next to impossible. Furthermore, I am not too eager to see those policies implemented.
Free college is unnecessary. Universal healthcare is necessary. It doesn't matter how you get there. If universal healthcare can be EVENTUALLY achieved by having a "public option" to start with, I'm contented. Thousands, if not tens of thousands have perished annually in the U.S. owing to lack of health insurance. Since Obamacare became in effect, such deaths have been cut substantially, which is a huge achievement. Improving ACA will be a great achievement in itself.
Similarly, if we can raise taxes on the rich, modestly, it will reduce the budget deficit greatly, which even a sizable segment of Republicans would agree with. They would also go along with strengthening the safety-net programs.
I would suggest, if it will fly, to have three higher marginal rates: 40% on taxable incomes of households OVER $1 million; all incomes over $1M should be taxed alike; 45% on >$5M & 50% on >$10M; 99.5% of taxpayers wouldn't pay higher than what they pay now.
Payroll tax on first $20K needs tone cut; lift cap but cut again to 1% on >$300K, or so.
31
@A.G. Such taxes would also change the relationship of management to regular employees. What you propose reduces the incentive for CEOs to take away from their workers because doing benefits them less -- and the psychic rewards of treating others better might become relatively valuable to them.
5
@A.G.
Universal healthcare is a desirable outcome. Universal health INSURANCE which guarantees that big medicine can overcharge and will get paid anyway less the deductibles, is not.
The earned income tax credit refunds payroll taxes as well as income taxes on the first $20,000 of earned income.
The mega wealthy are not going to pay the taxes you believe they should unless and until their ability to move untaxed wealth into foundations their heirs will control in perpetuity is reduced. As Romney suggested, put an annual cap of $100,000 on the ability to tax a tax deduction on unrealized appreciation, and Buffett, Gates, and Soros will have to pay 20% taxes. That aint happenin.
Bush was accused of cutting taxes on the rich. His tax cuts reduced income taxes across the board. Obama shut down the government with his demand that the Bush cuts on the rich be allowed to expire. The tax cuts on the rich expired. Per the definition of rich used by the Democrats, an individual earning $150,000 or MFJ with income of $200,000 got tax increases.
1
@A.G.
"Far left-Democrats just aren't trusted by the vast majority of voters..."
I don't think there's much evidence of that, just a bunch of hot air from pundits in the echo chamber.
But let's suppose it is true. Whose fault is that? You can look straight at the Democratic Party leadership, who have been letting Republicans define the debate on nearly every issue without putting up much of a fight. What does this party even stand for anymore? And yet so many Democratic voters are buying into this idea that we shouldn't stand for anything too "far left" or we'll scare away those moderate Republicans who might, fingers crossed, want to vote for our candidate this time.
It's time to take back our party and make it viable again.
If his audience or supporters are expanding, who are the new supporters?
By just about any measure, his party got its clock cleaned in the recent election. Maybe this wake-up call makes some independents and Republicans less likely to say they disapprove lest it lead to more retirements in Congress or other jostling of the White House of Cards.
There is every reason to think his ceiling is quite low. If his approval is higher than it has been but not a new and significantly higher peak, this is not really evidence that he is not already at or near his ceiling. I cannot imagine an imaginary "Trump approval trader" would do anything other than short any shares they could get their hands on.
This is an interesting statistic, but not conclusive evidence that the world is different than it appeared.
12
@Alan
Mid term elections traditionally favor the party out of power - one reason Paul Ryan didn’t run. And Republicans still control Senate. If Dems don’t find a centrist message, Trump will likely win and have coattails.
15
If you want a more scientific opinion, look at the 538 web site which analyzes in real time many polls, adjusts them, and averages them. Trump's support has not increased at all in the past year or more. The gap between approval and disapproval has stayed almost constant at about 10-12 points (Disapproval - Approval) since April 2018
47
@Jack
Trump's approval from likely voters has been better than the comparable statistics for Obama for the last eighteen months, according to Rasmussen, which polls every Monday through Friday.
@ebmem Look at the ratings that Rasmussen has for reliability and accuracy on fivethirtyeight website. I'll give you a clue (it's low.....)
This reflects what has happened on my street here in Central PA. I was naïve in thinking people would join me in rejecting Trump. Three years later I sadly accept that the majority of people on the street and in the town are life long Republicans and Trump supporters. I was fortunate to have a young man move in next door who is a Democrat, inspired perhaps by my Dem signs on the front lawn (?) Besides me, only one other person put up a sign and that was for Trump.
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@Boomer Just take pride in knowing you are (and your young neighbour) are on the right side of history...
The focus is on his approval ratings, which is indeed important. What isn't mentioned so much is his disapproval rating, also very important. For all of the people who may like trump or the job he's doing, there are many more who loathe him and think he's ruining this country. We need to wait until next November to see which of the two sides is more motivated to show up at the polls.
50
Among all Presidents in recent memory, he has worked the hardest at fulfilling the agenda he presented in his campaign. You may not like the agenda, or his demeanor, but he is taking on fights that needed to be taken on as predecessors sometimes kicked the can down the road.
I view the Democratic nomination race to be pre-season skirmishes for where the party is going, and who it will go with, in 2024.
47
@RM " he is taking on fights that needed to be taken on"
And just what fights are those? I can't think of any.
45
@Bob R
China is a notable fight he's chosen for the US to finally take on.
@Bob R
High corporate tax rates, an issue that Obama supported but was unwilling to take away the corporate loopholes from his friends.
Elimination of regulations Obama illegally imposed. [The regulatory roll back is not exactly a rollback. It prevented Obama ill advised and illegal regulations from taking effect.]
Attempts to enforce immigration laws as written. Trump has been stymied by partisan judges, who have made the situation worse.
Refusing to bow down to China's theft of intellectual policy, even though it has been disruptive several times to the stock market. Sometimes principles are more important that this week's Dow Jones index.
Bombing, with allied support, of Syrian chemical weapons, even though Russian advisers were present. A reason why Obama ignored his line in the sand.
Polls 15 months from the election are worthless,however if the Democrats are going to run a campaign that tries to sell President Trump as George Wallace they will lose. Most Americans don’t even know who Wallace was! The President has an enormous advantage with his incumbency and a reasonably prosperous economy and a country at peace what’s not to like? The rest smoke and mirrors.
28
@KB. Most of the polls themselves may very well be meaningless. No information is provided about the poll itself
@KB: A country at peace? Tell that to the folks in El Paso and Dayton.
1
A country at peace? With whom? Afghanistan? China? Dayton? If I were living in a country at peace, I wouldn’t wake up every morning filled with dread
The Democrats won 40 seats and took the House less than a year ago in a real life poll that actually mattered but from reading some of the comments here about them anyone might think that they had lost it a second time.
60
@Fisherose but with moderate democrats that are largely absent from the presidential contenders. And they were polled to flip even more. It was an average first midterm for a president.
3
@Fisherose
The House seats they won in competitive districts had Democrats who represented themselves as moderates. It did not reflect a shift in political opinions.
Democrats lost four Senate seats in competitive districts over the Kavanaugh debacle.
In 2006, Democrats took a majority in the House using the same strategy. They lost the majority on 2010 after moderates in swing districts had voted in favor of Obamacare, the stimulus and carbon cap and trade.
Nancy is carefully protecting the moderates from revealing that they are not moderate. If the House votes to impeach, Nancy loses her slot as Speaker and has to go back to flying commercial.
1
@Eric Redo your count. MOST of the current democratic are moderate. I'd exclude only Warren, Sanders and DeBlasio, the latter of whom has no chance.
Then those Trump loving people should consider what will happen if Trump wins in 2020 and no longer needs his base to win elections, he will no longer need to pretend that he cares about them.
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@dlb
Wouldn't that be similar to Obama, whose lawlessness and autocracy increased, as well as his pandering to Russia after his re-election? Why would Trump behave that way?
Obama ran for office promising protection for dreamers, withdrawing from the war in the ME, global warming legislation, a great economy, universal health care, a post racial presidency, hope and change. He won re-election, but Democrats consistently lost ground over his eight year rule without having accomplished anything other than the stimulus legislation [which failed to build infrastructure or prevent unemployment from increasing to 8%.]
Trump, on the other hand, ran on ending illegal immigration, reducing regulations, appointing conservative judges, reducing taxes, defeating ISIS, repealing Obamacare.
Obama accomplished nothing other than the failing Obamacare. He undermined it in 2012 by declaring he would not collect employer mandates in 2014 and 2015 to address the fact that all private sector jobs being created were part time. He further damaged it by grandmothering 8 million private insurance plans when the exchanges melted down in 2013.
What is Trump going to do if he is re-elected in 2020? Appoint Merrick Garland to Scotus? Introduce a bunch of new regulations? Advocate for raising taxes?
1
It’s the one thing Trump supporters will never understand or believe. They will be the first to go once he no longer needs them. I almost feel sorry for them, knowing what’s coming.
3
@dlb -- the obsession with the Trump base is a uniquely Democratic fixation. He doesn't need them, not the way Dems slice and dice identity groups. He is not a politician. He doesn't pretend anything. He just says what he says and does what he does. This is the man who said he could shoot someone and his supporters would still support him. What do you suppose he will do in his second term that he's not doing now for fear that he will lose this amorphous base?
3
Knowing the hate for him that awaited in El Paso, he went anyway. I can only think of one other such case like that.
20
@John Doe: that's because it's always, only, all about Donald Trump. He doesn't care what others want or don't want.
Ah...the re-emergence of the silent majority.
Yet now they're being called, to quote from the article, 'a “shy” or “hidden” Trump vote'.
A la Mr Potter, I chortle to think of the absolute consternation on the left in 2020 if Trump pulls off getting re-elected (still a very big if).
Maybe all those progressives who threatened to leave the country in 2016 will finally do so.
31
@Common Sense. If Trump wins and all those horrified Trump-haters actually try to move to other countries, won’t they be surprised to find out that other countries actually enforce their immigration laws?
It’s not to easy to obtain resident status even in Canada, UK, NZ, or Australia. Much less a work permit. Or access to that “free” medical care.
That’s probably why many of them haven't left before.
1
@Common Sense
Maybe the Northeast, the West Coast, and the Upper Midwest will actually leave? Why should they stay in a country dominated by a Republican minority that values power over Democracy? Will Ohio throw in with Indiana or PA,MI? Which way will N.C. go? Surely SC will go with Alabama, MS, and TX. What will those red states do without the largess of the blue states through federal tax redistribution?
1
@Common Sense: And I chortle to think how you'll be reacting if Trump loses. Best to watch the election returns with an empty stomach.
1
It is a depressing thought and at this point lowers my opinion of the average American citizen. I only hope it is some sort of polling quirk. If trump wins in 2020, our country and American democracy are doomed.
109
Or not. Maybe things will be more or less fine, like the last 3 years. Or the 8 years under Obama. Maybe the doom and gloom needs to just end, because for the everyday life of most Americans, it doesn’t matter who the President is.
@James
The everyday life of people in dictatorships is fine too, you know? That doesn't make it OK.
Not true...not true...not true...It can't be...we can't afford four more years of this craziness...
38
Yes, true. Go Trump!
People responding favorably to Trump in these polls are not necessarily being completly forthright because they are ashamed to admit they were wrong. Tell me how you factor that into these polls.
15
@Freddi -- given the level of outright hatred for the man, I would say the opposite is true: no one, in many communities, would dare admit to supporting Trump.
@Freddi .. Just the opposite. There is a hidden trump voter because those folks are publicly slammed down, shamed everyday in the media, by academic elite, entertainers, etc.
I'm a realist, not at all a Trump supporter.
That said, it's a long way to the election. Individually most current candidates for nomination poll slightly positive in head to head against Trump. The combined totals in polls for Democratic nominees polls far outweigh Trump's polling.
Probably rigged, just like the election.
17
@BD Highly unlikely. There are people who are willing to ignore the racism and hatred if it doesn't affect them. I'm really not surprised by this, but very disappointed.
Every time I read a Nate Cohn article I need a drink.
20
Here’s the laundry list:
Pathological liar
Adultery
Tax evasion
Hate speech
Fat shaming
Bullying
Obstruction of justice
Hush payments
Engaging enemies of the United States
Mentally unfit for elected office.
174
@Robert
Hard to believe people are willing to overlook all of these behaviors, and you forgot to mention rape and sexual assault. People will apparently put up with anything as long as they agree with whatever they think he is providing them, economic improvement, white nationalism, anti- abortion support? That is the crux of the matter. Sad commentary on our country.
8
@Robert Here’s a better laundry list:
Almost 4 million jobs created.
More Americans employed than ever.
New unemployment claims hit a 49-year low.
Median household income at highest ever.
African-American unemployment at lowest ever.
Hispanic-American unemployment at lowest ever.
Women’s unemployment at the lowest rate in 65 years.
Veterans’ unemployment at lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
Almost 3.9 million Americans off food stamps
Signed biggest package of tax cuts and reforms ever. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the economy.
Record number of regulations eliminated.
Obamacare individual mandate penalty GONE.
FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever.
Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on drugs.
Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight opioid epidemic.
Signed VA Choice and Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
U.S. oil production reached all-time high.
Withdrew US from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord.
Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year.
NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016.
Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration.
Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Withdrew from the horrible, one-sided Iran Deal.
Moved U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
3
@Smart American
The first half of your list is only relatively true. The median salaries of Americans keep going down in real dollars, many people are underemployed, or employed only half time, and most of the money of the tax cuts has gone into buy backs of company stocks. That looks good for the stock market, but doesn't help the people who need it the most.
The second half is just good only if you don't mind the long term results of global warming, enjoy having more international instability, want to have judges that will pursue an extreme right wing agenda at the expense of our democracy, and believe Israel as a country is not accountable for anything to anyone.
A few things in the middle are actually good (or look good, throwing money at a problem without a plan, or just so your buddies can get it back in government contracts is just wasting taxpayer money) but don't compare to the long term damage to our country.
Inexplicable.
19
It's not black or white with my impression of people. I voted for and liked obama but also did not always agree with him or his policies. Likewise, with Trump. It's not 100% like or dislike. He hasn't been that bad and he doesn't just say what he thinks you want to hear like all politicians. I typically identify with democrats on moral issues and with republicans on being pro-business and foreign policy. I actually like Eliz Warren for prez, but I may prefer Trump over many of the democratic candidates.
23
I have not heard anything about possible third party candidates (Green or Libertarian) whose votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were greater than Trump's margin of victory. How many people voted for a third party in 2016 because they assumed that Clinton would win?
16
Just a reminder:
Trump's approval rating is 42.1% and his disapproval rating is 53.1%, almost exactly the same as it was a year ago.
Biden is beating him by 8.5% nationally, according to the average of polls at Real Clear Politics.
According to Quinnipiac Polling just last week -- Biden is beating Trump by 8 in Ohio.
According to Emerson Polling yesterday -- Biden and Bernie both beat Trump by 2 in Texas.
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@Barbara T
If Biden is so popular, then why are his donors only in 2 states, and even in those Bernie beats him in the number of donors?
1
@Barbara T You're right: Trump's #s are pretty much the same as they were 12 months ago.
(although, I have to say.......I do not believe any poll that shows Bernie beating Trump in TX. Uh, not way that would happen.
@Barbara T
If only... were there not a lot of polls predicting such success for Mrs. Clinton in 2016? Polls just before the election had her leading by 2 to 4 % and she did win the popular vote by 2% but we know what happened. I marvel that Americans did not choose her over Mr. Trump by something like 90%, but it's not my country.
No body called me or polled me on the internet.
Not that I would interact with any anonymous call or
internet poll in this day and age.
Who are these people that were polled. ?
I'm not sure polls can be accurate anymore
54
@New World I agree 100%. Explain the polling methods before and tell me who conducted it before expecting me to believe it.
17
@New World If they are phoning people who have land lines that could skew the data to reflect the older generation. Even in El Paso today it was the older generation that thought it was OK for Trump to visit.
Oh my heavens. I'm not going to sleep well tonight.
32
This country is lost.
45
What a joke.
I do not understand how anyone thinks he is doing a "good job". Or is "likable". (personally I have always thought he is revolting, but that is another discussion). He is selling off our protected public lands and sacred First People land. Selling our farmers down the river with tariffs, destroying the trustworthiness of the US in the eyes of almost every other country on Earth. The EPA has been turned into the Environmental Plundering Agency, and really not much legislation has been passed except to give tax breaks to the people who need it least. The national debt is growing and growing for no good reason. That's disgraceful without even mentioning the "immigration crisis" horrors that have been cooked up into a crisis to distract everyone. Really, is South American refugees our biggest threat? I don't think so. There are much bigger threats that are not even being discussed, even though our own Intelligence agencies are concerned.
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@ALB
I agree with you, but when wondering why people like him, you just have to think back to High School. Why were the bullies popular and successful in many ways, and could get away with unusual cruelty? Because of all the people that supported them. Apparently they have a great attractive for a lot of people. I got over that by 4th grade, but then I was never part of the popular crowd. It served me well in life, though. Trump would had been a looser right out of high school if he hadn't inherited so much money.
Cool! More deep concern from Nate Cohn. Meanwhile his counterpart at 5:38 places him at -11 in approve/disapprove so go figure.
17
I have several observations, several push-backs.
How do you reconcile your on-the-whole-optimistic assessment about Trump's job-approval rating since June 2019 with the recent results reported by two of the pollsters with the highest ratings per FiveThirtyEight, namely, the Quinnipeac University and IBD/TIPP, both 40%?
How do you reconcile your results with YouGov polls of the past several rounds---all 41% or less---of approval rating, as reported by FiveThirtyEight?
If Trump's personal favorability rating has gone from 34% on the eve of 2016 General Election to 46% as of today, how do you account for the Democratic Party flipping as many as 40 House seat----the largest quantitative pro-Democratic party flip in the House since 1974? When in fact there appears from all available evidences the sign that Trump's fortunes and those of the GOP are joined in the hip: effectively, the two are symbiotically conjoined?
Doesn't make much sense to me.
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@Vox populi The 2018 midterm results were largely the result of a change in voter turnout as well as a Democratic surge in suburban districts. 2020 is going to be a voter turnout war with Trump attempting to motivate his base to turn out in even greater numbers than 2016.
12
And don’t rule out Russia or Iran or China or North Korea giving a nudge to the outcome.
@bellboy
Trump has dedicated himself to alienating everyone but white men as he vilifies and rails against everyone else. There aren't that many to turn out compared to everyone else.
I hope Democrats read this article.
So far, the Primary - and the debates - have been a master class on how to utterly destroy your credibility. A circular firing squad is trivial to their current mode of activity!
Republicans have done a brilliant job of gradually moving the Center ever more to the Right. The Political Scientists among us (myself included) have been warning of this for YEARS - but it falls on deaf ears.
HARD TRUTH TIME:
It took ages to get this transformation done, it will take years to switch it back!
The Democrats have many proposing European style policies, which I personally agree with, but I KNOW SURE AS LIFE cannot be accepted at this time. Pushing them GUARANTEES a Republican win.
Even Obama was vilified as radical - and his politics lined up more with Eisenhower, than anyone else!
To win the chance for profoundly progressive policies, you must first win - AND THAT MEANS WINNING THE CENTER!
The country is frantically digging a Right Wing hole. To stop it doesn’t require considerably Left politics: it first requires... that we stop digging!
The “I want my ‘Progressive’ and I want it now - or I won’t vote!” is the sure way to keep getting the Trump’s. That brings Trump type destruction in policy, the Courts, the International Order... the works!
The erosion is worse than we think. It will take numerous election cycles to fix it. Democrats have to FIRST WIN CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENCY for several cycles just to start the repair process.
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@GWBear, thank you. A voice of reason on appealing to the middle. THAT is exactly what we need.
3
@GWBear
Wasn't that the plan last time? And it failed.
5
@GWBear
You can yell all you want, but Democratic voters want a real leader who will fight for them. You can call that Progressive or whatever you want. There's no way you're going to win the presidency with same-old-same-old. That doesn't get us out to vote and it doesn't get us out of any holes.
Democrats need to get this straight: there is never going to be some "perfect time" to start talking about getting the country back on track with bold proposals. The time is now. If you don't start pushing for it now, it will never happen, and the Republicans will continue to steamroll over us with their more persuasive messaging (propaganda).
Now is the time to fight, not the time to put up some namby pamby, middling Democrat who won't get people out to the polls. We tried that.
5
For so many years I convinced myself that the American GOVERNMENT was responsible for the Native American genocide, for the Spanish American war, for the annexation of the Kingdom of Hawaii, for Vietnam and Laos, for the failure to enter WWII until we were attacked, for the failure to allow escaping Jews to find refuge in the US, for the Japanese-American internment camps, for the failure to aid the Hungarian revolt, for an invasion of Iraq that was based on a lie, and so on. Now I must face the reality, that these actions may have truly reflected the sentiments of a majority of the American people. Mr. Trump has created a climate where people feel free to own their worst instincts. Even if a Democrat is elected in 2020, and things go back to normal, my view of the 'American people' will be forever changed.
Philip Roth's 'The Plot Against America' seems all the more brilliant in the light of current events.
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@ShenBowen: I know, time to dig out my copy and re-read it...
@ShenBowen
Yes, the Trump presidency has been a real eye-opener, and not in a good way. He has stripped away any illusions we may have had and laid bare the ugly Hobbesian (“man is wolf to man”) truth about who we are. And, as you say, he has given that “truth” permission to run amok. Trump supporters say: “Trump says what we are thinking.” That chills me to the bone.
I had always thought that, if nothing else, most of us shared some common norms about our humanity, about how we should behave, about ethics, what comprises a fact, and how logic works. And yes, part of that common understanding was that governments lie. It was a given. But even though we agreed that governments lie, we also agreed that it was wrong. Now, apparently, many of us agree that it is OK. Trump has shown that in America norms are flexible, negotiable – are for suckers.
He has clearly revealed an America composed of people who can look at the same thing and see something completely different – that there exist any number of vastly different epistemological paradigms, different lenses, through which people see reality. And those lenses are inflexible. I know now, in the Age of Trump, that where I might see a circle, many people actually see a square. And nothing I can say can shake their conviction.
Friends, neighbors, family members – I no longer know who to trust. It’s as if we are all speaking a different language. Facts are just forcibly argued opinions.
Fascism: sow division attack truth
3
People who read these numbers and think it is fake need to wake up and smell the coffee. They don’t think he is handsome, funny or kind. They care about immigration. Many Americans feel this tide of 100k immigrants a month is too much and creates an irreversible change to the average education level, culturally, and economically. They don’t feel heard by their representatives and they can see the democratic candidates are tone deaf to what the majority of Americans want.
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It’s impressive how well the right wing media has set the tone & crafted a narrative of immigrants taking over. The GOP is salivating over comments like this. More tax breaks for the rich!
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@Allright
Those "many Americans" you refer to need to wisen up. First, US education may be terrific at the tertiary level, but at the primary and secondary level, it isn't all that what it is cracked up to be. Statistical comparisons with other industrialized countries bear that out. Second, people should stop acting as if culture is a static phenomenon that never changes. In fact, having people from different ethnic/racial/cultural background can only enrich a nation's culture (actually, "culture change" is just a phrase they hide And while I'm neither an economist nor in possession of a crystal ball, I think in about two or three decades Germany's economy will be humming (even more than now), because most of the one million refugees it took in are likely to show their gratitude by making a significant contribution to that nation's economy ,
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@steffie
"US education may be terrific at the tertiary level"
Our very best IHEs are indeed among the very best in the world. It is the level below "the very best" where US IHEs are no better than those in many other countries. We tend to conflate the performance of the best with the median performance.
4
This is the trend in Trump’s approval from 538:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
He has not regained the approval he had when he took office. He went down after the election, then went up to 42%, where he has remained for over a year. What in earth is going to cause him to become more popular over the coming year?
90% of Republicans support him because he’s their guy. Congress is a microcosm of partisanship. They’re not all white supremacist didos. Most support him because they think this will keep then in office. Gallup has the percent of voters who identify as Republicans, Independents, and Democrats as 29, 38, and 27%. That means only 13% of independents approve of Trump, assuming that Gallup, which is only one source, and 538, which is an amalgam of many sources, are consistent. Both have Trump at 42% now.
8
Racism has been around since the beginning of time. I truly wish it was otherwise. Lectures from home or the bully-pulpit won’t change people’s mind.
I truly wish it was otherwise.
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I think Trump is a despicable, divisive, unethical person. I voted twice for Obama and for Hilliary. This time, I will probably vote for Trump. Why? First, because the Democratic candidates are absurdly left of center offering admittedly socialist solutions and budget busting health care programs. Second, China has been getting away with murder: stealing intellectual property, undermining civil economic behavior. They are bullies that no one has stood up to before Trump. The Democrats can take moderate liberal stances on these issues that will get my vote and win the election. However, they won't do this. The presidency is there for the taking and they are blowing it.
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@Marc Don’t tell me you buy into this “China is paying our tariffs” idiocy. It’s a regressive tax that the middle class is paying for imports. In addition, you ought to worry about Russia. No arms deal with Russia? That is scary. This whatever in office is going to lead us to war with his eagerness to destroy his enemies and ignore the real threats of realpolitik.
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EML: The Democrats are more inclusive, more compassionate, and more interested in the welfare of all Americans than Trump. But Trump is destroying them in terms of issues concerning the economy. The plans of the Democrats make no economic sense, and they will lose on that basis. I disagree with your stance on China, but that is not the point to debate here. The point is that the Democrats have offered absolutely no alternative plan on the China issue. Again, the Democrats failure to make reasonable alternative solutions will doom their chances of obtaining the presidency.
@Marc Assuming you are sincere about having voted for Hillary in 2016, it makes no sense to support Trump for the reaons you cite:
1. China -- Trump is really doing nothing about China that will help our economy. He may inflict some short term damage on them, but it won't help us. Moving production to Vietnam or other oppressive nation won't make life better for Americans. We're paying the price for tariffs, not China. Yes, China steals intellectual property, but U.S. corporations do a great deal of stealing as well -- from individual creative/scientific inventors and from each other. Furthermore, they have used their powerful lobbies to extend patents and copyrights well beyond what the original laws were intended for.
2. "Socialist solutions"? This is a joke, right? You can only be echoing right wing pundits on this one. Single payer options and Medicare for all is not more socialism than our defense procurement system. None of the proposed Democratic health care plans takes over ownership of hospitals or forces medical professionals to become government employees. Just as the government negotiates with private defense contractors, the government will negotiate with hospitals and professional medical practices.
Missing in your comment is mention of the Supreme Court, climate change, voter suppression, corruption, human rights in America and the world, women's reproductive rights, etc.
1
I no longer know these people who call themselves Americans.
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Who wouldn't Americans approve of a presidents who supports white supremacy, denies climate change, rolls back environmental regulations that protect human health, puts children in cages, praises dictators, gives the cold shoulder to leaders of liberal democracies, and gives massive tax cuts to the wealthy and large corporations? It's surprising his approval rating isn't higher. Maybe he can finally start a war with Iran and really get his approval rating up there. Clearly the American public can spot a president doing a great job when they see it.
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@Bob Yeah you are right. I am so proud to be an American. NOT! I still say he cannot win. I still say he is dragging the GOP over a cliff from which they cannot return. Yes it is too bad a large percentage of the Democrats are fretting more about getting money from their big donners by protecting them and ignoring the voters needs so they are not all that appealing to voters but really we have that many idiots here who are stupid enough to vote for trump who destroys everything he touches? Even the corrupt Dems will not openly try to harm us much. Of course I want an uncorrupted candidate to win. Love how the status quo has to demonized the honest candidates. Ooh Evil abounds doesn't it.?
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Republicans came home...
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This article has no substance. Please explain what they like about him now?
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My guess is that Mr. Cohn's assessment probably understates the case for the size of Trump's support. Going into the 2016 election, the Times claimed that the probability of a Trump win was less than 1%. Remember that circular meter that appeared on the front page of each day's paper? I suspect that, if the polls are showing that even more people think that Trump is doing a good job, then the actual numbers are probably higher. Even a good Democratic candidate won't be enough, the Democrats will need an unprecedented turnout. My guess is that a well-organized Republican party will make sure that all Republicans get to the polls.
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@ShenBowen The Republican party will use illegitimate means, such as voter suppression and gerrymandering, and relay on the bias of the electoral college, plus, (as Bruni writes) depend on the huge advantage of the incumbency.
The president is elected by the electoral College. When will The Upshot start focusing on the data that matters, the swing voters in the swing states, the ones who tilt the EC one way or the other?
Nationwide changes in voter opinions are not relevant if we're trying to predict the outcome of 11/2020.
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Mr. Cohn has written an enormous number of words which boil down to, Trump is guaranteed at least 45% of the popular vote in 2020, as is his Democratic opponent.
It is how the final 10% of the public chooses to vote that will make the difference in the final outcome, as it does in most of our presidential elections.
For now, I am reasonably optimistic that Trump will have a harder time reaching 49 or 50% than will his Democratic opponent. And if the turnout of black voters improves in MI, PA and WI, Trump is likely to lose.
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@Raindog63
Please help cancel out my family's vote (Pickens Co.). They've voted GOP their entire adult life. When I asked my brother why, he couldn't answer.
Can't understand why they think the Republicans are good for the economy and national security.
Who actually answers their phone anymore when they don’t know the caller? I get calls every night asking me my views and I never answer. I have to question any and all polls in today’s world, esp. after the last election. Why do we still believe them?
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I consider polls to be entirely worthless. At any rate, they only take an exceedingly small sample of the population. I say this without regard to which side of the current existential divide I am on.
But.. and that's a huge 'but', if at all this turns out to be true and Trump somehow manages to get reelected, that would the last thing I would need to know about America. A repeat of the United States Apprentice would almost certainly seal the deal for downward spiral of America. Especially for someone like me who is brown and reaching my late 40s. I would much rather spend my remaining working energy and my golden years in a country that values human rights, is truly cosmopolitan and for the most part is free from white nationalism. Canada, expect my permanent residency application on November 8, 2020.
15
Trump has become the new normal and a major contributing factor is the hatred and scorn heaped daily on him by the news media.....nothing is too absurd, outrageous or disgusting to get into print. Now while that might make those who don't like Trump feel better, it gives him the advantage of being perceived as the underdog....we Americans are famous for that. The idea is that if you excoriate your opponents too savagely and too indiscriminately, you give them validity, "surely no one can be that bad so maybe people are exaggerating and people and are just sore losers". Think about it. If you are one of the nattering classes or chancer politicians looking for work think hard and fast because you are doing the heavy lifting for him and make him daily more plausible.
11
Cohn is always worth reading. Today I wish he wasn't.
And remember that in the last Gallup poll before the 3016 election (a big one) Trump had a 34% approval rating. Then, as is normal, he added a share of the undecideds. Today he has a rather higher approval rating. And once the Democrats nominate somebody, many who disapprove of Trump will decide they disapprove more of the Democrat. For various voters, the Democrat will be too leftist, too socialist, too female, too homosexual, or too colored, or otherwise disqualified.
8
And millions more have decided they loathe him. What is the purpose of analyses like this, again?
19
I, for one, have trouble believing anyone who did not like Trump in 2016, likes him now. I have never met one of these people.
It does not really matter. Trump is playing with fire with tariffs and that will be his undoing. The farmers are just about at the end of their rope with Trump. The Chinese have been around a long, long time. They know just how to handle a rookie like Trump. They will play him like a violin. Come election day, when recession is in full stride, Trump will be toast.
20
@John - China has never been a global power until now, large yes, rich yes, but they have no history of exercising power or influence beyond their immediate neighbours.
3
@Phil Daniels
When China exercises power in its neighborhoods it hurts as it did in Korea and Vietnam.
@Phil Daniels By abandoning and alienating one American ally after another, Trump is ensuring China will be the most powerful economic force in the world.
I am glad that the NY Times is publishing articles like these, whether true or unsubstantiated: it might scare the readers of the NYTimes enough to vote and get Trump out of office.
26
Free Healthcare for Illegal Immigrants?
The Democratic Candidates must want to lose.
They cannot even float a plan for free healthcare for Americans, without breaking the bank similar to the way Trump is ($trillion dollar annual deficits). This will not work.
I will always vote for the Democrat, but even Obama followed the laws on immigrants, and even Obama worked to incrementally raise health care coverage, and for American citizens many of whom are woefully uninsured. The Democratic candidates must want to lose, because they make no sense right now.
27
This makes me even more depressed than the recent gun carnage. What is wrong with people? What is wrong with our society that they would approve of vain, thin-skinned racist and want that representing them and their country? I am even more determined to continue canvassing and volunteering to get him out with the VOTE in 2020!
23
Trump is going to lose. There will not be a Hillary in 2020. There will not be a Jim Comey to open an investigation of his opponent a week or two before the election. People are sick of an obnoxious personality. His approval rating is 42%, according to Real Clear Politics, today. No president can survive those disapproval numbers. Trump is going down in 2020! Too many people cannot stand him.
20
According to various polls, half of Americans believe in ghosts and aliens; 38% don't believe dinosaurs are millions of years old; 15-20% think the moon landings were staged. Then you have all the anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers, holocaust-deniers, Sand Hook-conspiratorist whack-jobs.
So, that leaves, what? Maybe a THIRD of Americans are beyond educating. Most of that American third is Trump's base, and they follow him like lemmings.
38
Let’s not forget the Qanons, that’s a scary bunch. & they love trump.
11
Here is a thought I think you have to factor in when you think about the 2016 and 2020 elections: I think if the 2016 election had simply been rerun one week after the first election, Trump would have lost and Hillary would have won.
I think people like this author and media like the NYT had everyone so convinced that Hillary couldn't lose that many marginal voters in crucial swing states didn't bother to vote. I also think many voters thought, well Hillary is going to win anyway, so I am voting with my middle finger for trump. NO ONE is going to do that in 2020!
The day after the 2016 election, in that incredible " holy s " moment, if the election was simply rerun, I think many voters would have changed their vote, and Hillary would have won.
So 2020 is the rerun of sorts that many of us wanted in 2016. Most of the dem voters will turn out and there will be few throw way votes for trump, i think this fact favors the Dems in 2020
5
"a better candidate"
Is that even possible? I seem to remember that Hillary was sold to us as the best candidate ever.
11
This was always the fear -- that people would become inured, indeed 'ok' -- with much of what and who he is.
Most depressing thing I've read all day. Which is saying something.
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I might suggest that a good deal of Trump's incremental approvals come as a reaction from those voters who find the new progressives, led by the so-called Squad (the new face or some body part of the Democrats) completely repulsive. The rest of Trump's new fans probably find nothing much to like in those Democrats running for the office of President- as all their faults, warts and all, are continually pointed out by their fellow Democratic candidates. Isn't there an expression that "When it gets hot the rattlesnakes start biting each other"?
14
In the sweep of history, we have to realize that a democracy in which all people are viewed as equal is a recent aberration. Our own democracy hasn't even truly been equitable for more than 50 years at the most, since the striking down of voter suppression laws, and by many metrics we are still struggling towards real de jure equality. But much in the same way that promises of legal equality and the election of a Black president cannot excise the stain of ongoing racism and bigotry in our society, the fact that we are a representative democracy does not do away with the authoritarian impulses in many Americans.
The jump in approval ratings from one day to the next following Trump's win smacks you across the face with this point: there are many Americans who started to approve of Trump simply because he won. Humans are social creatures, and for thousands of years the best way to survive in a society was to make nice with the men at the top. People with an "authoritarian streak" don't care about ideology. They want to obey. Trump plays squarely into the authoritarian mold with classic strongman behavior - mocking and dehumanizing opponents, making light of morals or ideological consistency. His only real policy goal is remaining in power, and there is a certain segment of American society who would put their lives on the line to keep him there. My only hope is that he doesn't call on them to do so when and if he is defeated.
24
I would bet the back forty that Donny T will call for armed resistance if he loses in 2020. He will pronounce the election illegitimate and proclaim that our Democracy is under attack. He will become the ultimate terrorist leader. Some military and law enforcement will pledge allegiance to him - most will remain loyal to Free America. It will get ugly and bloody before it is over. As painful as this will be, in the end it will move this Great America Experiment forward.
3
@Chuck DeVries
I heard the former Judiciary Committee counsel say we are in a cold civil war, Are you suggesting it is going to turn hot?
Stop crying in your beer already, put that energy into supporting Bernie/Liz.
They really do have a chance. Biden will pick an inferior running mate. Just like Hillary did.
Bernie and Liz can win, they have the most contributions from the Most People!
Let us get really happy about our candidate, you already know in your heart Biden cannot win, otherwise you would be smiling!
9
And millions of Americans who did not like Trump in 2016, still don't. You're reporting both sides, right NYT?
20
It's been clear for some time that men in the upper-middle class are willing to ignore the multitude of horrible things that trump has said and done because the stock market was doing so well. The NYT did an article saying that before the 2018 election. The article was based on interviews of members of a private golf club, in a suburb of the capital. Only one was willing to give his name. They admitted that they feared they would lose business if they identified themselves. My sense was they weren't terribly concerned with social issues or the longterm health of the country. Their allegiance was to their stock portfolios. I think just one had been eager to vote for trump but that most of them had done so, and signaled they would be much more comfortable to do so again.
We can only hope that his ill-conceived trade wars continue to suppress the stock market up until election day.
19
Especially with something as vague as "favorability," the "devil is in the details." Somewhat (but only somewhat) astonishingly, there are zero details provided in this piece, not even in the linked-to "data" file, apart from a trend over time.
How do the ratings break down by age bracket, region, gender, ethnicity, political party, and whether or not the respondents voted in 2016?
Zero information.
How were the poll questions phrased? Zero indication.
In what context of other questions asked? Ditto.
What is the "favorability" relative to (if anything: past presidents, other celebreties, other incumbent politicians, Democratic candidates for president, William Weld)?
Again, absolute zero clue given.
I wish this were an atypical column about Trump.
It is not.
That fact alone gives more information than the article itself (e.g. much more than zero) about what possible reasons there might be for these sustained, and even improved, favorabilty ratings.
11
For some readers of the NYT, WaPo and other mainstream publications, the relentless identitarian and social justice propaganda ends in Trump as one of the few defenses of sanity and common sense. It is amazing but also it's true.
What the Democrats are promoting now (free healthcare for illegal migrants) irritates an increasing number of previously undecided voters. Certainly those who struggle daily with healthcare premiums and expenses.
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@Kai
It's not like Democrats are offering free healthcare to illegals while trashing the Americans. In fact, Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to get Americans the healthcare they deserve. Illegals would get healthcare on two grounds: (1) humanitarian - We are one of the wealthiest countries in the world. If we take profit out of healthcare, we have more than enough to care of anyone who resides in the U.S., citizen, green card holder or not, and (2) infectious disease agents do not look for citizenship papers. By providing medical care for illegals, we are ensuring that any diseases won't spread in the population. But I guess thinking for yourself is too much to ask for Trumpists and 'undecided' voters.
12
@Kai
Free college for all (including undocumented immigrants) probably does not go down well with those young people already economically saddled by college debt. No one is talking about debt forgiveness or repayment for those who have struggled for years to pay off their college loans. To the average working voter Democrats promising "Free stuff for all" is kicking dirt in their faces. Yes, there was economic socialism to bail out big companies during the last recession. You think the average worker (other than those in the banking or auto industry) was happy with those as well? Right.
15
@Kai The Democrats are not promoting free healthcare for illegals. They walked that back in the second debate. They were referring to IF we had a single payer, healthcare for all system, EVERYONE in the country would be covered, much like if you are in a foreign country and you get sick or injured, they treat you. You may still get a bill, but it is usually very low. Like when my Father in law broke his hip in France, they did the surgery and took care of him for several months, and he had to pay very for the excellent care he received. SOME of the candidates are supporting the idea that undocumented people here should be allowed to BUY into our healthcare system. As far as identitarian and social justice "propaganda" what is WRONG with accepting people as they are, trying to get along with people who are different from ourselves, and striving towards more equality in our country?
9
Unbelievable that this man could actually be building support given his heightened invective of hate and division. These people should take heed this man is truly dangerous.
20
The democrats will cannibalize each other then end up with someone too far left to beat trump. We only need enough decent people in the middle few percent to see what's going on ("southern strategy" extreme, demagoguery, treasonous acts, disruptive and destructive guiding principles on every front, etc etc), yet we think we have to save the world right now. It's imperative that trump is removed. That should be the highest, maybe the only, priority. Then we can restore and improve things. But they'll talk esoteric big picture issues and lose the middle.
11
@C T C
Save the world? We can't even save ourselves.
4
I'm sorry, but I find it hard to believe that those who regarded Donald Trump with revulsion when he took office, now view him favorably. Where are these polls being taken and how are the questions being phrased?
26
@Anita
Perhaps he's an "acquired taste"? Like Kimchi. Smells terrible, tastes different than it smells and has some redeeming qualities (other than the high sodium). In retrospect, maybe that's not a good example. How about rattlesnake bites? After awhile you get immune. Is that even remotely true? No? Maybe someone else has a better example? Maybe there isn't one?
3
Please stop writing about trump and people who favor him, about his base, about his rallies. And about his re-electability. Why not write about the governance of this administration -- is there any?
PLEASE write instead about the majority of Americans who do NOT favor him, are NOT in his base of support, and DON"T attend his rallies. It is as though the Times is insisting that we must read about every little thing this guy says, does, doesn't do, every day all day and all the time. STOP, please. Write about someone and something positive.
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@jo
Write something positive? That wouldn’t be newsworthy.
2
@jo
I agree that the fixation of the NYT on every horrible thing Trump does to the near exclusion of coverage of issues of importance to the daily lives of Americans is tiresome. Most of its readers will not vote for Trump and already know how horrible he is. Why not devote some investigative journalism to evaluating the relative costs of private insurance and medicare for all, as just one example. An honest assessment -- not one designed to promote particular candidates. And this would include employer as well as employee contributions to private insurance plans. The question should not be framed as "would you be willing to raise taxes on the middle class to pay for Medicare for all," but how much more or less would the average American be paying for healthcare if we were to make a switch to Medicare for all? And of course, the number of persons covered under both scenarios should also be factored in, as should the quality of care. The candidates did not have time to address these important issues in the 15 seconds of "rebuttal" time they had in the debates.
3
I am one of them. It is the media including New York Times. You have criticized, demonized, ostracized .... 24 hours a day on CNN. I started to feel bad for him.
i consider him to be objective and media conspiratorial.
24
If you can call Donald Trump “ objective,” you were a budding Trump supporter to begin with.
13
Stupidity is like snow balls. it accumulates and rolls bigger and bigger until the end of all of it.
The question is how long it will last.
We have seen it with Germany and Italy in the 1930s.
It has lasted 15 years.
It is possible that in the USA it lasts that long and produces the same kind of worldly cataclysm.
13
I want to see the polls after these killings and his reaction.
12
I don’t believe it. His numbers have been in the basement since he the electoral college did the deed. I will, and many millions more, will vote for ANYONE other than the domestic terrorist living in the WH.
23
I paid lots of attention to the polls in 2016.
As Joe Biden would say, "What a load of malarkey."
What are the pollsters doing to prevent Russian trolls from hacking the numbers?
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Go out and vote like your country and your life depend on it.
21
@Just Live Well
Because it does!
4
It astonishes me that anyone would again vote for this acknowledged liar, con man, misogyist and racist. I feel like I live in an alternate universe where bad is good and up is down. Trump is a disgrace to the office he holds and has diminshed our country in so many ways that it breaks my heart. Please folks, wake up.
29
There are lots of secret racists in this country. They feel more emboldened everyday. Democracy is not the answer. It won’t weed out the racists politician if our country is filled with more racists who vote than non-racists who don’t. In that sense, democracy works as intended.
7
Is Trump going to get the black vote? The Hispanic vote? The white suburban women vote? The vote of farmers going bankrupt? The vote of steel workers, auto workers and coal miners who will soon realize they were duped by the liar-in-chief? How on earth is this man polling in the 40’s?
8
@ohio
He is not getting my vote - a senior, white, rural female!
12
If Trump continues to hammer China (many Americans are nothing if not xenophobes and racists) & beat the war drum against Iran and Venezuela, he will sail into office, no problem. Should the Dems run someone like the old foggy Biden, it won't even be close. Gun control (against), abortion (against), LGBTQ rights (against) all put Trump with the US adult majority & work wonders as wedge issues agains the Dems. The fact of the matter is the majority of Americans are not liberal, the majority of whites are not particularly sympathetic toward blacks and Hispanics, and the majority of white Americans hate the Chinese (out of principle) and the Iranians (for embarrassing the US by throwing out the puppet Shah and defying America). Trump rides those issues hard because he knows that's how to win.
11
@Cephalus
Could be, but as an foreign Observer it is really interesting to follow. Obama 2008 suprised me in a positive way and could be we are positively surprised again next year!
1
@Cephalus
I don't know where you get your information, but the majority of Americans do want gun control and abortion.
Oh, you're in Canada. You can't even vote here. Why do you have an opinion about our idiot president? I have no opinions about Canadian politics. All I know is you have a nice looking head of government that Trump is jealous of. But I don't care a whit about what happens in Canada.
3
@John - your second paragraph just proved Cephalus' point regarding most Americans being xenophobes.
3
Something is very wrong with this data.
First, notice how there's only 3 entries in 2019 for Gallup? Gallup publishes poll data every two weeks, and not once has it ever reached 48 percent, as this data claims it did on May 2 Gallup published a report on 4/30 that did say 46%, which is the absolute highest he has ever been. The previous data point is 3/2. The published report from Gallup is 2/28 is 43%(44% cited by the article), and before that at the end of January is his nadir for the previous two (Gallup says 37, article says 39.)
If you look at Gallup's actual data on the subject, it shows a nearly flat line that has never strayed below 35 or above 46 percent over the course of his term. This data only acknowledges a rating below the 40% line twice in it's entire sampling. It is not representative at all of what Gallup reports.
The Times needs better copy editing and verification before taking in articles like this, because this has credibility issues.
8
To read that trump's favorability has increased almost makes me sick. What in the heck is wrong with Americans?
12
If the media giants who hate him would report on Trump and especially his stupid tweets with anything like a proportioned response, his numbers might be lower. The overkill is working in his favor.
11
What happened? - he wasn't racist enough in 2016 but now he is? Bottom line - Dems got to vote. Dems lost 2016 cuz not enough voted.
17
Wow, really stretching the “numbers” to make the imbecile look like he now has more supporters. Which “high-quality polls”, whatever those are, did you ignore in writing your click bait?
7
Do voters have no sense of decency? How does anyone get behind this poor excuse for a human being, then sleep at night?
Totally brainwashed by Fox News propaganda and Russian bots?
What a nightmare is America now.
16
Trump is a Total lowlife criminal in my book, I think these polls are all lies
8
I want to see the actual data showing "millions" were actually called and took online surveys- but of course it can't.
Anyone having taken a statistics course knows how these numbers work; "X number of people where called on a given day...or responded to an online poll...adjusted +or- for error.. Then the sweeping pronouncement:"__________% of Americans say,feel,like,dislike, believe,,,"
And then, we get articles...
4
Fourteen months to go until the general election, Democratic candidates still fighting amongst themselves for the nomination, and national traumas in the form of mass shootings that tend to rally people behind a president, so please don’t put too much stock in these polls. If the Democrats can nominate someone charismatic, like Bernie, the polls will shift overnight.
Danger democrats: make no assumptions based on polling. Look what happened in 2016 when we assumed something. Don't fall for it again.
6
We ARE what we Do. That is the simplest baseline when evaluating the character of a person. In the case of Trump, no one is touting instances of ethical behavior on his part. His supporters evade that conversation by tearing down his competitors (including Clinton...yawn). I think a majority of people in this country have the gift of discernment, see this man for who he is, and will vote him out of office in November 2020.
3
I am this person and I know many like me who don't speak publicly. I'm a minority (Asian), well educated, live in a progressive city (NYC).
I did not vote for Trump last election (voted Hillary) and despised him as Commander in Chief initially. Voted for Obama twice as well.
I still have many issues with The President's rhetoric, but in time I've also appreciated:
1. That he'd stood for enforcing the immigration policies of the US even under pressure (wall not so much)
2. That he's at least addressing the trade and IP issue with China
3. That he's been willing to speak out against the over reach I see when it's come to Black Lives Matter, anti-police rhetoric, etc.
4. That he's at least addressing the nuclear deal with Iran.
5. That he seems to understand that some Islamic values conflict with western values (many Hindus or Christians living near majority Islamic countries or communities would say the same).
I've seen the Democratic party swing far left in recent years (Obama's accomplishments on Healthcare, his position on immigration, etc would make him a conservative by today's Democratic party).
Hence, yes I view Trump favorably even though his performance on the job is mixed at best (he's a blunt instrument, often takes extreme positions rashly and is too close to Russia).
But....what's my option?
29
@John Thoughtful, thank you.
I ask, how do you know that the other candidates would not address these issues as well or better than Trump? There is a fundamental truth that whomever holds the office has to deal with these things whether they want to or not. All of it requires negotiation and diplomacy in one form or another.
Rattling sabers and bluster is a tool. You are right about the blunt instrument assessment. I don't see the Democrats' positions any more or less extreme than Trump's rhetoric...neither will get their way because government is an ongoing negotiation. It is divisive and uncomfortable, but apparently we have to come to this place to figure out who we are as Americans. It's not a simple or static thing and I hope it doesn't get much more violent...but I fear it will.
3
@John Let me paraphrase Martin Niemoller for you: First they came for the Hispanics...then they came for the Blacks...then they came for the Jews...and when they came for the Asians, there was no one left to stand up for me. The man is a racist and a white supremacist, so while you aren't his target today, trust me—history shows us you will be if he's allowed to continue in his despicable ways.
17
@John
Trump is separating families who are LEGALLY seeking asylum, meaning they’re fleeing terror at home that we have had a hand in creating by our support of military juntas in the region.
His trade policy with China is an abject failure. Soybean farmers in this country are going broke and are actually lobbying Washington to raise the white flag, and the markets are now gyrating because of the uncertainty created by this fruitless trade war. Trump has responded with government handouts.
Overreach of Black Lives Matter? Have you not been paying attention to the racially motivated mass shootings since the beginning of Trump’s tenure?
The Iranian nuclear deal was supported by almost all of the world’s nuclear physicists and was intended solely to contain that country’s nuclear program. It did. The hope was that a less belligerent Iran would join the family of peaceful nations. Now that we’ve pulled out of the deal, war with Iran is more likely.
This president has done nothing but tear at our democratic institutions, commit crimes deserving of impeachment, and denigrates people of color, including congressmen, on a daily basis, and you don’t think you have any options?
17
The main takeaway is that his job approval numbers have remained remarkable stable. This makes sense because, whether you love Trump or hate him, people's views of the man's performance as President are pretty intense and fixed. This fact is not good news for the RNC given that the number of people who disapprove of the job he is doing as President has remained equally fixed at well over 50%. If the democratic candidate wins 52-46 in the popular vote (approaching the size of Obama's win against McCain) , Trump will lose all of the close ones and lose in an electoral landslide. His "head on head" numbers against a known DEM quantity like Joe Biden should also be troubling to the RNC.
3
Except for my oldest relatives, I know absolutely no one who still answers their phone when the call is from an unidentified number. So there you have Gallup's numbers in a nutshell.
And online polls? Give me a break.
17
I wasn't a fan in 2016. But I will vote for Trump in 2020.
19
@M
And your reasoning for that is?
5
@M
Just like you voted for him in 2016
4
Based on Maria Konnikova's "The Confidence Game", it appears we are exiting "the breakdown", when the scheme starts to go wrong and the con artist sees how much of a beating the victims will take; and entering "the send", when the marks pledge their loyalty because the cognitive dissonance ("surely I am too smart to fall for such a con") is too much to bear. All just a prelude to the full realization of the con... I suppose in this case reelection; when he will be released from any pretense of lawful behavior, and free to unleash his most corrupt and self-dealing instincts with impunity.
6
I voted for Hillary with a clothespin on my nose, after the DNC torpedoed Sanders in the primary. I work with blue collar craftsmen who dislike Liberals and for the very rich. I see why Trump retains his popularity, he's just not that bad a President when reviewed without fake new driven bias.
If I don't have a progressive choice this time, I will not vote. Trump may win my swing state. So be it. I am not on the Trump Derangement bandwagon and it's a very well considered position. The Russia interference meme is a hoax, he's less a problem ethically than GW Bush.
But most important is the integrity of my side; I will not empower Neoliberalism. Neoliberalism has to die for me to vote Democrat again. The enemy in your own house is always more dangerous than one on the other side of the fence.
14
Back in July 2016 I stopped in a motel on the way to visit my sister. I don't have a television at home, but in the motel Trump was on CNN and the way he came across on TV and the enthusiasm of the crowd there and then convinced me he could win.
The 538 polls had Trump with a ⅓ chance of winning, and yep, ⅓ of the time the ⅓ guy wins.
Baring catastrophe (environmental, military or economic), battleground states, vote suppression, newly registered Puerto Rican refugees and Florida felon enfranchisement all come into play.
3
Another unmentioned factor may be that Americans respect anyone who persists - and, despite his endless flaws, Donald Trump persists undaunted in the face of a daily barrage of criticism that would deflate most sentient humans. In fact, he seems to thrive on it.
17
Looking grim for Democrats. They're bringing it on themselves. Not the first time.
19
This is a very sad commentary on far too many "Americans."
Yes, in quotes.
4
In 2010, the GOP was 35% of the voting block in America,. Today, they are 24%. In 2016 2.8 million more democrats voted than republicans. In 2018, 9.7 million more democrats voted than republicans and in both elections, the GOP had an 84% turnout. Since that time, the GOP has attacked minorities the LGBTQ communities, healthcare, climate change, women's rights and education. Women will seal this presidents fate.
6
the only thing of value in the survey results is their publication. The influence that the survey results has on voting in small states.
Nate Cohn - The president is elected by the electoral College. When will The Upshot start focusing on the data that matters, the swing voters in the swing states, the ones who tilt the EC one way or the other?
Nationwide changes in voter opinions are not relevant if we're trying to predict the outcome of 11/2020.
3
Polls are flawed until they figure out how to poll people’s true feelings and intentions which is increasingly hard in a world where you’re bullied and shamed for thinking anything not approved by the thought police.
2
This is the most depressing thing I have read recently. Trump as a two term president means we all own him and his administration’s actions because he’s not an anomaly; he’s a knowing, conscious choice.
3
Would you willingly divulge to a pollster or anyone else, for that matter, that you do not have a searing hatred for Trump--much less be willing to vote for him? The wise among you will start to realize that he is being made a sympathetic character when now it is clear he will be thrashed and threatened no matter what he says or does.
8
How do polls work now? I hang up on any person posing as a pollster because they are usually scam artists or trying to sell something. I have a landline!
Polls said Hilary was sure to win. Remember that? How many people attacked and tore her down figuring Trump couldn't possibly win.
5
I did not vote for Trump. One of his first acts was to pull out of the Paris Accords and everything since cemented my disdain for this cruel, crude, bigoted excuse for a President. His administration and this country have been in turmoil from day one.
His opinions are formed by watching Fox News and consulting with Sean Hannity. He has run off anyone who deigns to disagree with his ill formed opinions. He has proven to be corrupt, brings in his equally ignorant family and encourages crudity from his followers.
I could go on but I believe my point has been made!
13
Trump will crush the Dem candidate in 2020. Senate will hold. House will likely shift . Only hope for Dems is Biden. The rest are wildly out of the mainstream.
16
I don't think it helps the Democrats now, after the terrible gun killings which are being universally blamed on hate, to blame Trump and his speeches for these killings. Hate is hate, no matter toward whom it directed. Hating Trump and/or those who support him may only increase approval for him in a period when everyone is sick of partisan bickering.
7
As a moderate, I've been watching the white liberals that are the constituency of this paper get drawn further and further away from reality in some kind of recursive fashion of outrage (and feel free to check the NYT stock price to see the incentive structure). The blue bubble looks like a kind of matrix for people to simply get entertainment out of outrage. I would prefer a moderate choice for dem over Trump, but I can't support the polarizing behavior of the far left.
15
So, a “shy” or “hidden” Trump support is now changing to a bold and openly one. If this is true, it might be the biggest achievement of Mr. Trump (and the biggest defeat of American progressives).
6
Biden can never win.
Status Quo.
3
And what cohort has died and who are the incoming young voters? Is voter ‘turnover’ considered?
The main reason that Trump (disclaimer: I have disliked (ugh!!) him ever since he stepped off a rooftop helicopter in the 80's with Ivana) is gaining support is that the Democrats are not providing a viable alternative. Their ONLY campaign "anything" is, "Vote for us & beat Trump!!!!!"
5
@Hilda. Your Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren looks to me even from far away to have far more policy proposals out there than just voting to beat Trump.
6
Her proposals aren’t realistic. Somebody’s gotta pay for all the stuff she’s promising and the people that actually vote are the same ones that pay taxes and they’re not gonna go for it.
1
@Nick In Canada, Trudeau won on those same type of promises. Now, Alberta's big oil economy is in the dust & not only there, the government's popularity has dropped, even in Quebec. We have a national election in October, so we'll see Already had one in Ontario & that climate change focus premier is gone. Which is why I feel the Democrats are helping, more than hurting Trump.
The 2018 mid-term election results really demonstrate the strengthening of trump support. Oh, that’s right. They did just the opposite. But that was an actual election (where we were told angry white racists would outnumber non-deranged voters). But hey, if you can create some good click bait by using some “high-quality polls” (and ignore readily available current head-to-head polling) to conjure a trump surge, go for it.
4
In this day and age, when it doesn't pay to answer a phone call whose Caller ID you don't recognize, and online polls that can be swarmed and gamed...
The REAL Poll that will matter will be the One in the Voting Booth in November 2020...
Because all the other polls are answers that could be convenient lies...but the one where you have to sign the Voter Book and Pull the Lever (Or fill in the circle & Scan)
THAT Number will be the Final Number.
And don't forget...the Recession is coming. And Obama and Clinton will have nothing to do with it...
4
We don't know whether there will be a recession before the 2020
election which may reduce Trump's support enormously from current polls.
Economic indicators, particularly the interest rate yield curve, strongly indicates an economic recession is imminent.
7
In 2018 many Trump voters said they had had enough. Cohn doesn't account for 2018 at all. 2018 throws cold water on his story here.
"His personal favorability ratings surged after he won the presidency, and they haven't fallen back."
Let's say there really was a surge, It wouldn't necessarily be because he won the presidency. Other events are roughly correlated with (Russia helping him) win the presidency. For instance, at that same time Congressional Republicans stopped criticizing him and abandoned their Constitutional oversight duties. To my mind that action (or lack of action, as it were) was one of the largest forces that normalized Trump's corruption, treason, etc.
The difference between phone polls and online polls isn't curious at all. I did volunteer phone calling in 2016. In many hours of calling, I do not recall ever talking to anybody under 50 over the phone.
21
His approval hasn’t changed from 42% in over a year according to 538. What’s going to make it go up, the impending recession?
9
Yes, there is a possibility Trump will win more electoral college votes in 2020.
And yes, we cannot take his defeat for granted.
But Nate, you are both misreading the data you present and you are neglecting several important factors which will shape the 2020 vote.
It is not surprising that online polls show different results than telephone polls. Fewer and fewer people answer their phones now than even 2 years ago. We received at least 2 spam calls before the 2018 vote where the caller ID said something along the lines of “voter survey.” We’re never going to answer similar calls again. It would be informative to know if the political preferences of people who continue to answer their phones lean Republican.
Online polls may be more accurate, and your data shows a downward drift in Trump’s approval in online polls. Not a massive decline, but a tendency to fall.
When analyzing voter preferences and turnout, you have to also look at other factors beyond poll numbers. Voter suppression is increasing. Social media manipulation of people’s views is increasing. These could of course help Trump.
And on the other side, interest in voting is climbing higher for Democrats than for Trump. You have to address voter motivation, which is not mentioned in your analysis.
Based on your article, the 2018 Blue wave should never have happened. But it did, Nate, so try to be a bit more careful and accurate in the future.
25
@Richard There was no blue wave in 2018. Republicans picked up some senate seats. Democrats performed on average for an out-of-office party in a mid-term. But, tell yourself what you like if it makes you more complacent and feel better.
7
@Richard Fleming -- I suggest that you, Mr. Fleming, need to be more careful and accurate in the future with your comments. What voter suppression is increasing, can you tell me exactly what that is? Recently there was a report showing, as just one example, black voter turnout actually increased in areas after a voter ID requirement was added. See The Economist, Feb. 19, 2029.
5
@William
Not true. 41 seats picked up in the House and Governors in States carried by Trump. The Senate seats lost were the reublicans to loose. Yet Dems kept Montana, and picked upBev and Arizona... Nit good for GOP
2
Polling has a generational challenge. The old way of phone calls is gone. Landlines are gone; unsolicited calls are blocked or ignored, so who's left to answer the phone? I can't imagine a truly representative sample can be established. And on line surveys are voluntary, so how are they representative? In 2020 we should pay less attention to the reported number and more to the margin of error.
20
I continue to wonder if these polls, even the highest quality ones, are now accurate, given the change in communication patterns:
- decrease in landlines
- increase in cell phone
- surge in robocalls, such that many people do not answer calls from numbers they do not know.
Given this, it remains unclear to me if people who respond to polls are representative of the population of likely US voters, or if poll respondents represent a distinct population, possibly with different political views.
21
@L - polls also need to take into account the importance of geography, the reality that only a few states really matter in deciding the election outcome.
10
Perhaps an explanation is that Democrats are still committed to show, yet again, that they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. If the main effort in the Democratic Party is supporting ultra-left candidates, even though the middle is wide open, the party seems determined to prove that it is possible to win even bigger margins in NY, CA, etc. while still losing mid-western states that will determine the presidency.
26
@John
This is what primaries are for. "The Democratic Party" is not a top-down monolith -- it's the opposite. Voters in 50+ individual state party primaries choose their favorite nominee from the spectrum of candidates that choose to join the race.
2
@John
The democrats are their own worst enemy.
6
@John This is Absolutely Positively TRUE!
2
I wonder how many who voted for him as an unknown re now never Trumpers. If overall ratings are terrible given how strong the economy was. If that can;t elevate him what will. Dies the GOP thik 200 million dollar campaign blitz will save his sad soul. I also suspect many of these people were conservatives who just didn't know him.
Not knowing Trump doesn't imply the person was an independant or moderate.
2
Currently, the average of national polls at Real Clear Politics has Biden beating Trump by 8.5 points.
That's an average of quality national polls and Biden's winning by 8.5 points.
7
@Barbara T - We need polls to recognize the Electoral College and filter results on a state by state basis. As we well know, nationwide majority vote figures are meaningless on their own.
Does Real Clear Politics factor that in?
I'm going to their site now to take a look.
4
@Barbara T
Go back and look at Real Clear Politics polls in the few weeks before the 2016 election. By the third week of October, Clinton held leads of 9, 12 and 14 percent over Trump in some national polls.
7
@Barbara Your party’s left wing extremists will never let Biden be the nominee, that the number is irrelevant.
3
If the economy is doing well then people will approve. The Democrats need to come up with a viable candidate that is going to address the needs/wants/desires of the majority of voters and not play to the fringes.
12
@Ken S - Well the majority of American voters approve of the Sanders progressive agenda, and that's why he beats Trump in swing states. If moderates Democrats refuse to vote Sanders because of the Neoliberal lies about electability, they are hypocrites who can live with Trump for 4 more years.
2
@Ken S
When enough people want something, it is no longer "fringe.". And people actually do consider things other than the economy -- like a president with only 4 modes: corrupt mobster, authoritarian bigot, narcissistic grifter, and cranky toddler.
8
I agree - I was so disappointed that Trump was the Republican candidate. Very disappointed.
Then, look at what's happened - the economy is the strongest it's been in decades. Millions of people are being lifted from poverty. Black unemployment is the lowest since LBJ.
I'm far better off now than 4 years ago. Re-elect Trump.
29
@Prof Emeritus NYC
C'mon, don't believe the (Trumpian) hype.
Outside of a fleeting sugar high from the huge corporate tax giveaway, the economy has not been demonstrably better than it was prior to 2017. Look at any of the multiyear trendlines: unemployment, black unemployment, GDP growth, etc etc all tracking as they were before last presidential election.
Frankly, I'm surprised Trump and Repubs havent blown the economy up yet (as they did at end of Bush term). But they have time, twisting the Feds arm and trade war with China will have their toll, not to mention backwards looking policies vis-a-vis energy/sustainability.
28
@Prof Emeritus NYC
Look at the yield curve. I can get a 3 month CD with greater interest than far longer out.
Remember when people were afraid of deficit spending? Maybe you are part of the 1%, in that case you are doing better.
Boeing was too smart by half. They got rid of the pesky regulators and optimized profits; then down go two airplanes because of their negligence.
Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.
9
@Prof Emeritus NYC -- But you voted for him, didn't you?
NYT readers are too educated to buy your Republican taking points. Trump inherited a growing economy, and the Republican corporate tax cuts have temporarily juiced the market.
Those tax cuts came on borrowed money.
Despite Trump's false claim that tax revenues would make up for the cut, they have not come close.
Attributing black employment gains to Trump is ridiculous. Unemployment has continued it's 10 year trend, and blacks still trail all other groups in both unemployment and income. Do youa attribute that to Trump?
11
This column makes me break out into a cold sweat. I still have trouble believing that nearly half the electorate like this man enough to return him to high office. Lord, we must be in worse shape than I thought. I understand Republican-leaning voters not liking HRC, but after four years of turmoil and nearly standstill government, can't we do any better that this?
57
@Bob
It's the economy...Bob.
4
@Bob
Yeah, Bob, the people giving you a cold sweat, I think Hillary called them 'deplorables'.
7
@Bob
The turmoil has been entertaining. Think of how many people love horror shows; dog fights, cock fights, gladiatorial contests. Entertainment need not be pleasant.
Everyone who watches FOX believes he's doing a great job, and all is well. They believe he has improved our national security, economics and domestic policy.
The Democratic Party (or media) by focusing on issues that don't have widespread support, and ignoring major attacks (Democrats support infanticide says GOP/FOX) are in danger of losing what should be an easy race.
2
Every day I get more and more depressed. How anyone, ANYONE, could now have a more favorable impression of Trump than in 2016 is mind boggling.
106
@confounded Look at the Democrats then look at Venezuela. It's really that easy. A weak and fading Joe, Warren, and "bread lines are a good thing!" Bernie scare people on a primal level.
8
@confounded I must concede that my impression hasn’t improved but I thought extremely high of him already. When your. 10 out of 10, it’s hard to get better.
5
@confounded, it certainly is confounding. If anything, his "rhetoric" -- if you can call rambling rally presentations, incessant lies, and angry tweets proclaiming himself to be a victim with everyone else to be invadors, rapists, or socialistic losers in favor of open borders "rhetoric" -- has escalated since his election. And it was bad enough before he descended that silly escalator, or when he took out full page ads to make false accusations.
Sickening,
11
Nate, do not concern yourself worrying about Trump's popularity. Trump has 15 more months to continue his quest to convince the rest of America how inept and ill-prepared he is to be President of anything, let alone the United States of America. Convincing me was a piece of cake; now he can concentrate on suburban college-educated men and women. Then he can try to distance himself from his white-national followers. That will be impossible because he's one of them.
11
@PoliticalGenius Keep repeating this to yourself and it might come true. Oh, and click your ruby slippers as you're doing it.
3
A valuable warning, hopefully the candidates carefully heed it.
1
This election will be decided on the issue of illegal immigration. Mark my words. For better or worse, Trump can point to the metaphorical 'Wall', and the more concrete Safe Third Country agreements secured from Mexico and Guatemala. So far have been hearing nothing but vacous palitudes from the Democrats.
19
If these voters dislike Mr. Trump personally but will vote for him because he is taking action on immigration, they are morally wrong. On immigration, Mr Trump and his policies at are their most cruel. You don’t have to want open borders to want us to treat the helpless at our doorstep with dignity and compassion. If you feel it is justifiable to destroy a hundred families to keep out a dozen MS-13 gang members, you have lost your way.
26
@Bill Garr. Mr. Garr, while I deplore Trump's style, I support his insistence that we finally enforce the law on illegal immigration -- as do so many other developed nations including Canada (but the Times cannot be bothered with ongoing reporting on that, because it would show Trump as typical rather than an outlier). You charge cruelty -- the only cruelty I see is our past laxity on enforcement and in providing freebies, which contributed to would-be migrants risking their lives and their children's lives attempting to get into the US. Separating families? Obama rightly instituted that to avoid kids being housed with adults, a dangerous mix. What on earth do people expect when they mob the gate -- hotel accommodations with room service? All is preventable, they simply need to top trying to jump the queue and instead follow the legal immigration processes.
13
I think this reflects the 'Never Trumpers" such as Lindsey Graham who have succumbed to the squalling of the Trump base.
7
Between trickle down racism, recession indicators flashing, stock market trending down, daily scandals, kids in cages, Anne Frank inspired round-ups, lies by the thousands, Epstein parties, and a lot more. I keep asking what will resonate, which scandal will stick? Anyone?
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@AAA
I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were you.
Bush-Cheney were re-elected in Nov 2004, and, by then, it was pretty clear that those two had lied the USA into an unnecessary war in Iraq... and the IEDs were already going off in greater numbers and with deadlier force. And, that’s not counting Bush2’s numerous gaffes in public speaking, attempts to privatize Social Security and Medicare, increasing deficits, etc.
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@AAA
Perhaps ones that are based in reality, unlike most of what you just listed.
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Apparently many of us aren’t as nice as we thought we were.
Well, we know where nice guys finish, don’t we?
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@Joan In California Except that Trump is not a nice guy...
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My point exactly.
The old saying is "Nice guys finish last!"
Really? Didn't the polls say that Hillary Clinton was going to win the 2016 Presidential election too???
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My instinct is that what this data captures is the Republican voter who knew that Trump was an awful standard bearer for their party and regretted his nomination and was afraid that he would lose to Hillary Clinton. I have learned that these voters value Republicans winning more than holding a President to any sort of standard of decency, the long-term interests of the country, or even the long-term interests of the Republican Party. The fact that he won and Democrats means he goes from the “don’t like” to the “like” category. They probably voted for him at the time, so these numbers don’t mean Trump’s chances of winning (which are real) have gone up.
One thing to take heart in: the 5-6 states that Trump barely won have more than 100 EC votes. The 4-5 states that he barely lost have 22.
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I don't believe more people like him now then did in 2016. I can't prove that statement, but I know its true. Even Trump voters seem to be tired of the constant turmoil. Come 2024, the Republicans will have a new golden boy, probably someone who hopes to be granted work release to preform the duties of the office.
All of the cannibalism in the Democratic primary is giving ammunition to Trump; who ever wins the nomination will be very bruised and Trump will use the same criticisms to make the nominee look ineffective. We don't need a poll to predict this: Trump will win a second term. There are many closeted Americans - not just working class whites, but also suburban and educated white males and females - who will "secretly" vote for Trump. Even Hispanics will vote for him as they did in 2016. Four more years. Unfortunately.
By any logic Trump is a disaster. Economy may look good, but it is soft. The 2017 tax bill is aimed directly at middle and lower income people and enriches the already rich. Many countries don't respect us. Despite all this, he will win.
So far, I have not found a Democratic candidate without a major weakness. Biden has stumbled multiple times. Sanders and Warren come across as angry. And so on.
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@Srini Biden was very eloquent on the news earlier letting Trump know what he thought about him. This is the first time I saw him in a better light. I'm still going with Amy Klobuchar, I think she has what it takes. She may start off slow , but she warms up while she is speaking and hits a home run. I want to see her tell Trump while he is standing behind her at the debates to "back off pervert!"
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@Srini Right. We're not concentrating on good candidates like Buttigeig, Gabbard, and a couple of others whose names we forget, and although Joe would make a good president, we have people like Harris to tear him down. Harris, Booker, Warren and Sanders seem to have the specific job which is to lose Democrats the election.
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@Srini So what? I'm angry, too, about what Trump is doing to this country of ours. Everybody should be angry. Trump's tearing us apart and bleeding away our economic and political power in the world. Get rid of him in 2020 and really make America great again.
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Count me as one of those. I did not vote for Trump in 2016 (nor Clinton...voted third party) but despite his being a complete personal mess (searched hard for a printable description here), I expect to vote for Trump in 2020. The economy booms, he has confronted China, he is talking to the North Koreans, he is actually doing something in other areas of the world, and the Democrats promise to take away private medical insurance and fling open the borders. Not a har choice.
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Then count yourself complicit in all of his behavior. All of it.
But, hey, jobs and he’s “doing something in the world”, right?
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@Michael Smith, I appreciate your comment because I can't fathom how any sane person of character could support and vote for Trump, and you have explained. What I still don't understand is how you think Trump's "standing up to China" will help the economy to "boom." Everything (everything!) you buy will be more expensive, and the economy will inevitably slow. China plays the long game, so they will just wait it out; Trump has no leverage with them. Meanwhile our economy will slow, your 401(k) will lose value, and people will lose jobs and then houses. As to medical insurance, not all dems are calling for an end to private insurance--but hey, if you want to pay 8-20K a year for it instead of at least having a public option, so be it. Immigration reform doesn't mean "flinging open our borders," but it doesn't mean shutting them down completely either or throwing out people who have been here for decades and contribute, financially, socially and culturally to our way of life. What I really don't get, though, is how you can support a person as morally bereft, racist, misogynistic, mendacious and vulgar as Trump. Does character just not matter? What do you say to your kids, assuming you have them? How do you explain that character means less than nothing to you when you decide who to vote for?
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@Michael Smith - And here we see why Trump will win. This is really sad. Do you want to "take away private medical insurance and fling open the borders?"
2
I will no longer buy any grocery items from a red state. I had to put back organic beef and dairy from Wisconsin and replace it with beef from NV and dairy from CA. I would never have considered doing this under Bush, but the division that trump causes and his people celebrating the division have to be fought by the dollar.
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@Colleen Blinoff Hadn't thought of that but will work on it too.
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@Colleen Blinoff. Calif dairy areas trend red, ha ha, joke's on you.
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Wisconsin is not a true red state. That it went for Trump is an anomaly. Wisconsin farmers are suffering tremendous losses under Trump and his tariffs with China with a record number of them no longer able to stay in business. Please don’t boycott Wisconsin products.
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If these polls hold any merit what it tells me is that millions of Americans have unbelievably low standards when it comes to presidential candidates.
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This has been patently obvious since the election of Andrew Jackson.
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@Zed18..so right....but part of the problem is the squabbling amoug the Democratic candidates. Some of them need to told “ go home” or “go away” etc. But Trump for all his faults and he has many appears to accomplishing something.
7
@General Noregia Accomplishing what? Denying climate change and the devastating effects it is already having instead of putting every power of the federal government into combating it in every way possible? Overturning regulations so now it's just fine for corporations to poison air and water, sickening and killing people? Caging children and separating them from their parents? Starting a tariff war with China that is damaging businesses here and is going to hit every consumer, and damage the global economy? Making health insurance harder to get and more expensive? Slashing taxes of wealthy corporations and increasing the national debt, which then becomes an excuse to cut programs for the poor, and will become an excuse for damaging Medicare and Social Security? Alienating our allies? Fomenting hatred towards blacks and Latinos? Insisting that it's just fine for anyone to be able to buy and use military assault weapons? Believing that women don't have a right to control their own bodies?Using his office to enrich his businesses? And even if I somehow believed these were "accomplishments," I would never vote for someone who doesn't know how to read and learn, who lashes out at anyone who disagrees with him, who feels it's perfectly okay to lie, and who is so fundamentally dishonest that he won't release his tax returns.
7
I fail to see much of a basis for Cohn's contention that Trump is noticeably stronger as a candidate in 2020 than he was in 2016. Both the interview poll and the online polls show that he is less popular now than he was after the election. Where's the beef?
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We have been reduced to a third world country. White working class people resent people with more education than they have. Trump exploits the resentment. The oligarchs, including some who are out of country, (eg. Russians) exploit Trump. They don't care what Trump says or does, so long as he can attract frightened, angry, rubes. The haves will have. The have nots will have to do without clean air and water, good nutrition, decent medical care, and adequate shelter.
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It's difficult to know what this means. I'm a Republican, so if I'm called by a liberal pollster, I might have a tendency to defend Trump, just as I'll always say nice things about Philadelphia to a New Yorker. Does that mean I'm going to vote for him? Not necessarily.
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@Michael Livingston’s
I sure hope not.
6
I suspect the immigration issue is turning in Trump's favor. If he coupled a get-very-tough approach with a Dreamer plan, many would see that as a solution, ignoring the role the undocumented play in our economy.
8
I’d bet a sizable fortune that his improvement in polls is due almost exclusively on two things: conservative Supreme Court Justice appointments and the economy. Nevertheless, a depressing set of data for the moral condition of our polity.
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@Steven H., could you explain your conclusion to Gary Abernathy? He doesn't understand that.
Wake up and win. It’s about money. The far left are about money to pay for social programs. The far right are about tax cuts for corporations. Centrist voters? Plain old jobs that pay decent salaries so we can pay our own way.
What is your plan to increase wages? What are your plans to spur growth?
There are (astonishingly) still enough people who believe in trickle down economics to vote the Republican incumbent in for another four years. I guess they think he’s some sort of gold bullion good luck charm.
He is vile, yes, and a great many people do not care. Incessantly pointing out the obvious is fair and fine and, in some ways, necessary. However, that is not going to get anyone else into the White House. It’s about salaries and 401K’s and healthcare costs. It’s about money.
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@Anna America does not have a "far left". It barely has a left.
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The ridiculously huge Dem candidate pool must come together and strategize on how to get a Dem win. Of course, that would mean putting aside personal goals and political aspirations, which most are too stubborn-headed to do (even when it's crystal clear they have zero chance of winning the nomination, never mind the election). We should be asking ourselves 'who are the 2-3 Dem candidates with the best chance of getting the most votes from Moderates and Republicans?' Focus on them, and forget about the others. All this 'debating' and one-upmanship is an utter waste of time and energy, and will only tire the voting populace as they try to get to know all the candidates and ultimately come to a decision on who to vote for.
17
@Lisa The Republicans are laughing and clapping their hands with glee. Unless the Democrats find a good middle of the road candidate with appeal to the milder Trump element, they are going to lose. Count on it. I've voted Democrat in every election since 1964. If the Democrats put up one of their far lefties, I might not this time.
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@LisaThanks for this.The selfishness of Democratic candidates in attacking others they hope to defeat does not draw voters. It makes me feel sick.
2
all this analysis becomes moot the day after Trump's tax returns finally see the light of day.
Trump knows this better than anyone and explains his maniacal fight to keep them hidden.
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@teoc2, I expect all of Trump's supporters to completely excuse anything that Trump's tax returns might reveal.
They'll either view them as demonstrating what a smart businessman he is [right], or as "FAKE NEWS!!!" Unfortunately.
2
It looks like our foundering economy is going to take care of this problem.
7
On election day 2016 Trump won 46% of the vote. Polls show his favourability in the low 40% range so it is unlikely his base is increasing. It will come down to voter turnout in swing states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin where Trumps popularity is in the negative double digits.
Can Trump fool voters in these swing states twice?
6
@Joseph B - Morning Consult has been doing a good job of tracking changing views on Trump on a state by state basis and has a good page summarizing the results.
Trump is trending downward in those states you mention as well as several others that could become important.
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
The Upshot, by neglecting the importance of a state-by-state analysis, is making a big mistake.
2
@Joseph B "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time..." Well, you know... Just sayin'.
Just mind boggling that millions more would like this man more than in 2016 after all that we’ve witnessed since then! This does not reflect positively on the ability of too many Americans to appreciate the damage he’s done and continues to do daily to this country.
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@Joe B, or it reflects on our tendency to be influenced by propaganda.
7
@Joe B "Damage he's done" -- that's a matter of opinion. Has he damaged the stock market, the unemployment rate, relations with North Korea, evening the trade score with China?
3
@Scott Yeshe has damaged all of those. except the unemployment rate.
If you like a bloviating serial liar who has thrown away every sense of decorum and dignity of the office he holds then I guess we deserve four more years.
For me, I would rather see any of the Democratic candidates run and beat him. I miss civility. I miss feeling secure in my own country. I miss feeling I am safe and that my president represents ALL people, not just the ones who like him.
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Absolutely nailed it. Thank you.
7
They might want to re-poll El Paso and Dayton right about now.
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@D. Wagner. The Dayton shooter supported Warren, for gods sake. Although that might not have been reported in the Times.
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@RLS It was reported, but the thick miasma of hate that is choking this country is down to Trump, and he loves it and stokes it.
He also clearly revels in pitting people against each other, even against poor migrants fleeing crop failure and starvation due to climate change, but that’s a discussion for another day.
I’d rather see this polling and message through the election so that the left gets out to vote. This is no time to be complacent or comfortable in polling like we were in 2016.
12
Studies and surveys that focus on nationwide numbers rather than state by state are essentially flawed, given our electoral College system.
That said, I contribute this regarding nationwide numbers.
Look beyond just the 2016 numbers for Trump and Clinton and factor in also the numbers for Johnson (Libertarian) and Stein (Green). If you accept that most Libertarian voters lean right and most Green voters lean left, then consider teh total.
GOP+LIB = 62.98M + 4.49M = 67.47 million
DEM+Green = 65.85M + 1.46M = 64.31 million
"Left" and "Right" were separated by 0.04%. The vote was almost perfectly split down the middle.
I'll add this. The Libertarian vote increased by 3-fold over 2012. I believe this was in large part GOP protest votes. Those votes will likely return to Trump. However these are not votes being lost by DEMs.
With the country so perfectly split what it really comes to is which candidate will perform best at turning out the vote in key swing states. It will require high voter turnout among the base as well as success at capturing the precious swing voters in those states.
That is how 2020 will be decided.
A more rigorous analysis would be like the one I did above, but with state-by-state numbers focusing on the swing states. Start with the 2016 numbers then do frequent and extensive polling in those states to track changes in opinion.
Anything else is pointless.
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And many who voted for him now don't like him. Some only voted for him , or didn't vote at all, because they didn't like HRC. None of it matters this far out and when there is no opponent yet. What matters more as it gets closer is where purple states are leaning. No doubt this weeks shootings won't help his numbers. If the economy declines for certain they go down.
12
Can any of the whiz kids who analyzed this data try to correlate it with each Dem candidate’s campaign announcement and the subsequent leap frogging leftward push? Seems to me that there might be similarities between, say, Elizabeth Warren announcing and a move of the needle. Or of the stream of free stuff that is being offered and an increase in the Donald’s popularity.
2
Trump will center his re-election on himself, the stock market and jobs. He will ask people of color if they are better off in economic terms than before he became president.If the answer is yes his personal failings (of which there are many)will not matter. The economy will trump character.And there is no doubt that he will hold his base. As a persistent Trump critic this comment is painful to circulate.
6
While I think that Trump and his policies are often horrible (unneeded tax cut, unrestrained spending, massive deficit, etc.), he has chosen two issues that are clear winners with US voters - taking on China and illegal immigration. I believe most voters support going after China, even if it means that they will pay more for stuff imported from China. Likewise, most voters do not believe we need more low skill workers at this time.
If the Democrats are to win the presidency next year, they need to find some way defuse these issues.
17