Let's be honest, Mr. Bruni. The advantage you rightfully cite is not the decisive one. The decisive advantage that Trump has is his allegiance to White Christian Supremacy in the midst of a fast changing world of non-white human progress; period.
35
I'm not sure that many people know this but Joe Biden had a terrible stutter when he was young. So bad it was that he refused to speak on many occasions rather than trying to speak and be humiliated. My daughter, a lifelong stutterer, pointed his stutter out to me during the debate. Many of Joe's apparent speech problems in the debate were due to the fact that his stutter is reemerging. It makes him seem feeble minded and confused. It was horrible to watch once I caught on to it.
19
Oh, if only the author of this piece happened to be in a position to influence the coverage decisions of the best-known newspaper in the world.
10
Am I completely misreading the first paragraph or did you forget about Jimmy Carter???
15
Something will eventually be revealed that will show how base, corrupt and unintelligent he is. He can't dodge these bullets forever.
15
Journalists and fact checkers-all. We must never accept the daily litany of lies and exaggerations, from a compulsive liar and low-life sleaze. We depend on you to keep up the pressure there. Never give up, please.
14
We just have to win by 9,500,000 votes just like the midterms.
16
Trump's biggest advantage going into 2020?
Probably sheer Darwinism, mindless struggle for survival which seems to be gripping not just America but the world in the face of overpopulation, environmental degradation, etc. Opponents of Trump seem to want to paint Trump as primarily a racist or pinpoint other such offensive features, but the reality is worse: It's just mindless greed, consumption, unconcern with science and ecological problems which makes it difficult to see how ultimately he benefits even say, white nationalists who support him.
It seems America is just tossed between an unthinking left and unthinking right. Either we have the left with these impractical socialistic/save the environment schemes, or we have a brutal right wing Darwinism which cannot see anything good about the left, such as environmental concerns.
It's as if the U.S. instead of making an amalgam of the best each political side has to offer (cautious economics from the right, science and more science from the left not to mention environmental science) instead seems to be devolving to the worst of both (Social Darwinism from the right mirrored in Militant Socialism from the left) with result that ultimately Trump is favored because when it comes down to brute, ugly struggle usually a hard authoritarian core forms no matter whether politics is left or right (Stalin vs. Hitler).
Can't anyone at all form a broad, central and sensible plan to get us out of this mess? Where is invention?
10
You're forgetting James Comey k.o'd Hillary twice. And then there was her campaign, its staff and those ads. Suicide by video.
7
What he has is true authenticity, which resonates deeply with many Americans. You can be a pig and still be absolutely authentic - and for many, being authentic is more valued.
10
The president is incurious, mendacious, error prone, manipulative and more, but those are the defects that his base loves. His imperfections mirror their own, and spare him from association with elitist pretensions.
13
Trump’s verbal gaffs and lies?
Trump voters have been so swept away by un-American Fox News propaganda that millions will vote for a person which overwhelming evidence shows to be an unprosecuted criminal.
13
If Trump is allowed to reap the rewards of his utmost perversity, akin to getting away with 'murder', then we must look in the mirror, and see our own inconsistencies...and willingness to overcome 'schadenfreude' for the sake of entertainment...by a clownish jerk empty of morals...but full of contempt towards his very audience, his by-choice clueless base.
5
Bruni is right that Trump enjoys a special sort of protection from the gaffes, exaggerations, etc., but he misses the mark as to why. As James Carville said, "It's the economy, stupid."
As long as unemployment is in the 3.5-4.0% range, and as long as 401(k) accounts continue to grow, Trump is a lock to win re-election. Voters do not want a return to the moribund economy of President Obama.
10
The timing of this article's publication leaves much to be desired. I don't want to hear about Trump's 2020 advantage when he's busy sowing division in the wake of three massacres, at least one of which is tied to his rhetoric.
8
It's not gonna be close.
Either Trump gets walloped because America rejects the vulgar racist and his malignant, incompetent narcissism or America wants it. He will lose the popular vote to any Democrat by far more than Hillary won it but the Electoral College may prove that rural white America is little more than grievance and more racism than we ever imagined. But either way, it's not gonna be close. Somehow I'm sure of that.
4
To me the Outrageous Advantage is that None of the Democratic Candidates are Presidental Material ...Trump is a Mover and a Doer...and This Nation needs More of that and not the 8 years of Nothing that was before 2016....I have not read anywhere anyone saying O how they miss Obama or O if Hillary had Won...NEVER and for all the Negitive Bias News feed ...Trump is Doing a Great Job!
10
We are all El Paso now. Any decent person has to be.
11
Sounds like somebody got called to the office and was told to walk back that last column. So much for expressing your opinion, Frank.
Here's one of the other legs up Trump has in 2020: journalists like yourself describe a renowned pathological liar without once using the word lie. Falsely claimed is called sugarcoating. The word lie is a much more succinct and accurate journalistic term to describe what a pathological liar does. Pathological liars don't falsely claim. They LIE. Your column never once uses the word lie. Words matter. This is an example of the kind of passively structured journalism that put him in office to begin with.
19
Your views are common and widely know. What was your point. Do better vs. your deadline.
If Trump is re-elected, it will be an indictment of the American people. They can be forgiven for having been bamboozled in 2016, but with all this filthy, repulsive water under the bridge, what kind of nation would give him another four years to be the president only of those white folks who agree with his noxious view?
It would a country so badly dysfunctional and self-destructive that an attentive observer would conclude the United States is falling into the dark hole of autocracy.
19
Translation: Trump's advantage is the low bar Trump voters hold for their candidate.
Trump voters require nothing more than that Trump hates the people that Trump voters hate.
As long as Trump is a White Nationalist, nothing else matters for Trump voters. This is their sole issue: White Supremacy. And they don't even care if Trump is the poster boy for White Mediocrity. Or worse.
13
Good luck convincing my family...Democrats, all....to vote in support of ‘free’ health insurance for illegal aliens, decriminalization of illegal border crossing, the demise of private health insurance, the transfer of $Billions in student debt onto the backs of taxpayers, slavery reparations...
Furthermore, the American citizenry is under NO obligation to offer up our country as a pressure release valve for the world’s overpopulated Billions. Our government’s obligation is to serve the best interests of the American citizenry. Period! And we have OUR OWN poor huddled masses, our elderly, our veterans, ourselves and our own children to provide for...
We will ALL be voting Republican for the first time in our lives. Good job, Dems
20
Trump has "perverse protection" from criticism for lying and uttering or committing outrages not just because that's part of the deal he made with his supporters. He enjoys such protection because his supporters LOVE him for not being afraid to lie and LOVE him for being outrageous. A huge portion of the electorate in essence is itself perverse.
8
People were led to believe for 8 years than a 1 to 1.5% GDP, high unemployment, and stagnation was the norm. Obama said to get used to it. Trump promised growth, higher wages, and that he wanted to Make America Great Again. It was immediately considered a racist trigger. Enforcing immigration laws, racist, build a wall, racist, you get the picture.
Today, better economy, higher wages, and Democrats reverse, saying Obama made it happen. The border is a mess, and Democrats say it’s Trumps fault, and any attempt to slow the flow, you guessed it, racist.
Trump was investigated by seedy investigators for everything up to, and including treason, and now its obstruction of the investigation that he’s being investigated on. Resist, change the subject, and did I mention, he’s a racist?
Things get better for most Americans, Democrats tell us the world is ending, everyone is a victim, a little socialism is all we need to get back on track, and don’t forget we may impeach the racist.
All of the resistance from the media and Democrats, and all we hear is doom and gloom, the world is ending, and did I mention, Trump is a racist. Please excuse me and half of America if we ignore those “facts”, and vote for the guy who is ignoring you, and attempting to achieve a future we were told was lost forever.
11
The problem is not Trump. The problem is the Democratic candidate, whoever he or she happens to be. Trump is an idiot. His policy agenda is incoherent, he is dragging us into a stupid trade war with China, the stock exchange is tanking, and science deniers are appointed to EPA. All true. But elections are about a binary choice. If the opposing candidate is a self-declared socialist who threatens to nationalize health industry, open the borders, and pay reparations for slavery, people may choose the familiar evil over the unfamiliar one. Virtue signaling won’t work either. If you tell every Trump supporter that they are morally corrupt, don’t be surprised that they are not listening. And blaming Trump for white supremacy that has a 200-year-long history is not a winning strategy. Democrats won in 2018 with moderate rational candidates who promised to restore sanity and decorum to political life, while focusing on actual improvements to capitalism rather than on the “revolution”. In other words, with candidates like Biden.
12
Trump's outrages are like a bed of nails. You lie on one nail, and: ouch! You're punctured; it hurts. But a bed of nails? Suddenly, you don't even notice each one, because there are so many.
3
Yawn,
Maybe, just maybe, his advantage isn't an invisible cloak of obfuscation, but rather that he isn't like other politicians - he talks and speaks and thinks like many of us. Sure, he's a braggard. So what? Sure, he's fast and loose with the facts. So what? Sure, he can be crass and unsophisticated. So what?
While the liberal elite sniffs the air with haughty derision, the rest of America has said, "He reminds us of, well, us, and many of us like it."
5
Mr.Bruni, just a suggestion Frank, why don’t you ask or do a article on the 100 million could be as high as 125 million American eligible voters why they don’t vote, they all can’t be lazy, uneducated can they?
I
4
The reason that Trump will win is because he is doing great things for America. Tax cuts, better trade deals, enforcing immigration laws etc. Another reason Trump will win in 2020 is the clown car full of Democrat candidates with their post birth abortions, open borders, free healthcare for illegals on full display and America isn't buyin it.
9
OMG! A NYT writer that GETS IT!
As another lib writer so CORRECTLY described Trump:
"The left and media take Trump literally but not seriously, while his supporters take him seriously, not literally."
Once a person understands this, they understand Trump. It makes me laugh every time I see a media talking head try to explain a Trump comment literally - it's a fools errand.
But if you listen to the overall message and what the guy means, it makes sense.
And now that millions more understand that, Trump is building many, many supporters who were not there for him in 2016.
7
The atrocious Electoral College is the worst insult to intelligence in this rotten to the core built on slavery system of government,
7
I have no doubt that Trump will get called out when he lies, or makes stupid mistakes like referring to those who were killed in ... TOLEDO.
The media were very polite, and simple reported whatever "stuff" Trump said in 2016, without any indication that some of what he said was simply not true, or a deliberate lie.
What the media need to do is to point out when any candidate tells a tall tale, or a flat out lie. Sure, report the bloopers. Call them what they are. But also report, and call out, the lies.
4
Another column about Trump rather than policy.
I forget who said "Good press? Bad press? Just spell my name right."
We can see his main advantage right here.
3
trump's people like his sarcasm, straight-talk 'telling-it-like-it-is" style. is it a New York thing? 'cos I find pettiness, revenge-seeking, people unnecessary. People who mock others is a waste of energy. trump's people must attend his rallies simply to be there, since I cannot imagine they truly listen to his off-center, off-point, rambling, wacky, personal stroking spews. They are there. Do they know what he has done? pppfffttt
Trumps biggest advantage is the collection of incompetent misfits running against him
10
Donald gets away with his outrageous behavior because he has no shame and no conscience, makes no apologies and never admits mistakes. A sociopath does not live by the rules that govern a society.
8
In other words a huge chunk of the American electorate (especially Evangelicals) are morally bankrupt.
10
It's Trump's very mediocrity that gives Trump voters comfort.
It's their confirmation that they, too, are worthy of privilege.
6
it's because you don't start EVERY column concerning Trump stating the obvious. Let me help you: "he is a liar, a cheat, a fraud, a racist who actually hates anybody who does not in that moment lick his boots and who would have been in jail long ago had he not been born rich. He sold his soul to the devil and America to Putin. It is useless to even discuss what he or is minions say, as it is only lies or meant to spread hatred all around. Let me now talk of what we can do to get rid of him as soon as possible and lessen the impact of his crimes on the poor victims and the whole nation"
There. If you and your colleagues did that, took and held the only possible high ground, you would help. Otherwise, you will keep justifying the poor deluded, swindled or evil folks who support him.
3
Whoa, there. It is my understanding that journalists like to earn money BUT this ongoing diatribe and microscopic analysis of every politician is enough to produce diar---of the brain Time for all media to change the subject, take a well deserved break. Imagine the peace, the quiet, the tranquillity of a month without all this noise, this reporting of every move, every nuance, every hiccup of every wanna-be politician.
Take a deep breath. Take 5.
There don't you all feel calmer.
Take a walk: in the woods, along a beach. (Stay out of the water which may be contaminated}. And never walk alone. Cheers
1
Maybe those "perverse protections" work for some .. but not me. Every time I hear one of his unethical utterances, I am reminded that we need to get rid of this man ASAP!!!!
3
Biden much more popular than Hillary. Just need to get him to the primary finish line.
3
Do you not understand that we are in a state of mourning, outrage, anguish, shock and fear? How could you think this was a good day to suggest there's little hope? Why not use the money you're paid to give us something useful, some good advice, some hope, some strategy. This, like so much else these days, smacks of white, male privilege. Since you'll be safe either way, dash off some smarty pants bad news....
We are in crisis. Write like it.
1
Stop calling him President and just call him the person occupying the White House.
He hasn't earned the title, or respect, and doesn't deserve free rent.
His latest performance should get him cancelled before the new season begins. Television star indeed. 👎
4
Why are we calling them exaggerations, fabrications, falsifications? They are lies. The leader of the free world has to be fact-checked every time he opens his mouth or Tweets.
1
We don't usually dump presidents in the middle of a war. Let's hope he doesn't start one before we can vote him out.
2
Frank, I love ya, but God do I hope you’re wrong.
2
Perhaps the biggest arrow in Trump's quiver is the Russia Hoax.
Every hour, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, for 2 - 1/2 years, the democrats and the democrat media machine (CNN, MSNBC, WAPO, NYT) told America that Trump was a Russian agent, a Putin puppet, that he was mentally unstable, that he was incapable of being a president, that the sky was falling... But Mueller stated clearly, in two very important sentences:
“We focused on whether the evidence was sufficient to charge any member of the campaign with taking part in a criminal conspiracy. It was not.”
“As we say in the report and as I said at the opening, we did not reach a determination as to whether the President committed a crime.”
Mainstream America is sick and tired of media pundits lying to us. We are sick and tired of the democrat liars pouring gasoline on the flame of division in our nation.
(Not to mention the lowest unemployment in history, taking on China and Iran and even Russia, and a good dose of common sense.)
9
Since you understand that, Frank, why not just knock off blasting Biden or other Democrats for picayune "offenses" for the next 15 months. It won't kill you.
1
One of the most depressing op-ed from NYTimes.
If we have to live through 4 more years of this horror, will end in a most lawless country on Earth, with mass shooting, horrific racial conflicts, rise of Neo-Nazis, criminal elements openly committing heinous crimes, total economic collapse, open disgust from our past allies and "America Alone" floating in space without any moral ground...that's a grim, dystopian horror I would rather not live to see.
3
So 2020... Candidates so far:
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Joe Biden (D)
Bernie Sanders (I)
Kamala Harris (D)
Michael Bennet (D)
Cory Booker (D)
Pete Buttigieg (D)
Julián Castro (D)
Andrew Yang (D)
Steve Bullock (D)
John Delaney (D)
John Hickenlooper (D)
Jay Inslee (D)
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Wayne Messam (D)
Seth Moulton (D)
Beto O'Rourke (D)
Tulsi Gabbard (D)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)Tim Ryan (D)
Bill de Blasio (D)
Joe Sestak (D)
Tom Steyer (D)
Marianne Williamson (D)
Etc.
Donald Trump (R)
Bill Weld (R)
Hello? Anyone else.(R)
I, maybe we, would love to see a final debate with the
top 3 (D)s and 3 (R)s. Before either primary. Imagine that great debate?
A real debate. Each team has to choose 3 contenders.
The long list of Dems may seem exhausting but there are many gov positions to appoint and hire in a term. We are starting to know them now. They are being vetted now! That's comforting.
4
Nailed it.
1
Oh my goodness. You are right.
1
And God help us all
2
When we wanted to win WWII we overlook all the obvious character flaws of Patton and MacArthur.
Investors in Standard Oil didn't care if Rockefeller was a nice guy.
No one really cared that Jack Kennedy and Bill Clinton were womanizing on the clock.
Most people care about good results, not the character of the people getting the good results.
Date/marry nice people. To get things done, some times you hire the not-so-nice people. They tend to get the best results.
That is why Trump wins.
8
Bummer, Frank. Your last few columns could become a pamphlet for expatriation.
Oh, come-on Frank, calm down! At the end of the day, the American people are just tired and fed-up with this joker and will not tolerate 4 more years of his drama, hate, division and just down-right mean-spiritedness ... and, if they do ... well, then we deserve what we get ... so: 11/03/2020 ... be there and vote!
2
The biggest advantage Trump has is the corporate news media. They willingly allow themselves to be led by the nose because his tweets give them "news" to report and profit from. ABC, CBS, CNN, all of them, this newspaper included will give America "The Trump Show" 24/7 until the show is over.
The corporate news media will also continue to sell us baloney about Joe Biden being the most pragmatic, electable Democrat. They are doing that because they are more afraid of progressive change than they are of 4 more years of their cash cow, Donald Trump. Biden is a disaster. Look what he did following the shootings-
https://www.dailywire.com/news/50245/huh-biden-expresses-sympathy-tragic-events-houston-joseph-curl
This latest fumble should have been on Page 1.
But, the absolute biggest advantage Trump has is the one the MSM refuses to talk about and that is that, despite his racism and sexism and pathological lies, Trump has the unwavering support of virtually every single company on Wall Street, the petroleum industry and the military-industrial complex.
4
The WH occupant's slogan has been MAGA. Democratic demonstrators should brandish their one of their own: BOBA (Bring Obama Back Again) instead of IMPEACH.
What a statement about America and who we are
To bad there isn't any Kennedy's willing to run.
Sounds like a lot of overthinking. Stick to the issues, Frank
1
Are you giving up?
Outright surrender??
Unconditional capitulation???
If it's what you say, I hate it.
1
Perhaps then the media could discuss substance rather than style.
2
Another article in the NYT to defend Trump.
Americans have strangely reversed perverse reasonings.
This is the wicked culture of a violent nation with a duplicate evil unconscious morbid tendency.
The new American Awakening of the 21 st century is a death wish .
Okay. So where’s the basic problem? With him or with us?
1
I appreciate the column but I’m not sure this is a new insight, especially for anyone who lived in NY during Trump’s “rise.” The advantage you speak of has never been a secret.
1
if it's socialism (any flavor) vs Trump, Trump will win.
5
So, Mr. Bruni, will you (and you media colleagues) cease the incessant micro-analysis of everything each Democratic candidate says, or are you so driven by ad revenue and ratings that to make yourselves interesting, you can't help but contribute to the problem?
1
You missed President Carter when you identified only George H.W. Bush as the only incumbent who did win re-election. Likes your column otherwise.
The truth is a majority of white Americans still want to hold on to the social status and economic privileges for being white.
3
PA, MI, WI & OH elected Trump in 2016. If Biden is a presumptive Democratic Challenger of Trump he can take at least 3 of them like PA, WI & OH. Then comes FL with 29 Electoral College votes. Probably FL will decide who will be next POTUS in 2020.
1
Trump has rascal appeal to dissatisfied voters, who love him. Most of his voters are colluders, who hate Democrats.
Actually Trump's grandfather, who changed his name from Drumpf, was born in Germany, which town has disowned him.
Trump's mother was a very poor immigrant from an island north of Scotland.
1
Trump didn't give himself the inoculation...the news media and the government did. Trump is a media creation; when he displays his crassness and vulgarity, journalists would just shrug and say "that's Donald being Donald." He is a lifelong racist and criminal, who has violated federal and state laws numerous times. Why isn't he in prison? Because he's "rich," and the law doesn't apply to people with money. He's never had to deal with the consequences of his actions. First, his daddy protected him. Then, the media and legal system did. If you have money, you don't go to jail, you pay a fine.
Trump is simply a reflection of how corrupt and sick American society has become.
3
Most of the commenters here seem not to have seen the polls showing Trump's approval rating has risen since 2016. Bruni put the link to the NYT coverage in his piece.
Covering your ears and chanting loudly is effective only if denial is your preferred state.
3
I think the larger point of this editorial is that the Democrats are fighting against a bully who will use any tactic and tell any lie to stay in the White House, and the Dems don't have a clue about what to do or, let alone, a contender.
Given the 20 Democrats still running, it's like a fly weight against a heavy weight in the boxing ring. None of them has the strength to counter Trump, they might get in a punch once in a while, but Trump only needs to land a single punch to win.
It seems that the Democrats have forgotten that the Marquess of Queensberry is dead and the big deal now is MMA.
Remember how Trump stalked Hillary in the debates? Do you know what effect that had on certain people in this country?
If your answer is NO to the last question, you can plan on four more years of Trump before The coronation of Empress Ivanka.
The Democrats need to hold their dainty noses shut and pick the biggest and meanest contender they can find - someone who isn't afraid of dragging Trump and his family through the mud and kicking him when he's down.
1
So don't allow that line "to blur..."
Each day, or the following, print a chart of Trump statements or assertions that don't align with truth or reality.
Don't editorialize; I heard a news broadcaster on NPR this evening say "Biden slammed President Trump today..." On NPR? Really?
The media used to say" "Biden criticized President Trump today..."
Don't editorialize, don't provide entertainment, simply lay out the facts, ma'am.
I love you Frank Bruni, and I do not accuse you of any of the above, but this paper is sliding into the abyss that led to the Trump election.
These are the simple things this paper can do to try and restore journalistic integrity and principles to the coming election...God help us.
2
Four more years of Trump?!...God help us!...What a depressing thought. Given his numerous gaffes, lies, outrageous acts, and his obnoxiously toxic divisiveness, one would think that Trump wouldn't be able to win a seat on a local city council, never mind the presidency, wouldn't you?
And when you also factor in his threats to kill Obamacare and its coverage of pre-existing conditions, one could reasonably conclude that the Democrats would have ample political ammunition with which to end Trump's reign of terror.
Democrats need a "take no prisoners" mentality when it comes to defeating the Trump regime. Trump has generously given us ample ammunition to do so.
3
Shockingly, this is perhaps one of the most negative, nihilistic, and self-destructive evaluations of our electoral process which we have ever read. This is not the way it's supposed to be Mr. Bruni. Our advice is to go and find yourself an acceptable candidate that you can root for and throw all this nonsense into the nearest garbage can. After all, there are more than twenty on the Democratic side from which can choose from. C'mon man, use your brains!
this is perhaps
Jimmy Carter...one term.
1
Maybe I did not read it correctly, did Bruin leave out Jimmy Carter as a one term president?
Two. Jimmy Carter lost his bid for re-election in 1980.
Factual error: At least three sitting presidents besides George H.W. Bush have lost re-election bids since 1900: Carter, Hoover and Taft.
Not exactly encouraging.
If he wins ; what does it say about us ??? Ovine like we will allow this false pied piper on the path of destruction and undoing of what America represented ; might as well rip up the Constitution and all those wonderful amendments his followers like to stand up for that have been perverted in their interpretation . The cheating continues and blindly those have swallowed it all hook line and sinker .
Frank, you’re supposed to be a journalist, not a partisan. Is there somewhere people can go for straight news?
1
...and that is why impeachment proceedings must commence immediately.
1
“Now he reaps the rewards.”
And the nation — indeed. the world — suffers. Billionaires excepted.
3
Argh! He has no advantages. His base is worth 125 Electoral Votes tops. It’s pointless to discuss the Democrats when there are 22 candidates running. He’s destroying his great economy with an unwinnable trade war (Farmers don’t want a handout. They want their markets back). This lawsuit (supported by the Trump admin) against all of ObamaCare could get an OK in the appeals court and then could go before SCOTUS next spring.Democrats are diverse but they are united in wanting Trump gone. Georgia and Florida both came within a single percentage point of electing progressive African Americans...in an off-year election. If Beto O’Rourke had run in a Presidential year, he would have beaten Ted Cruz. PA, MI & WI are not swing states. GA, NC, TX, IN and AZ are. Yes I saw the Upshot thing about Wisconsin, but it neglected to split his support/lack of it into categories of “strong” and “somewhat”. He won in 2016 because everybody figured HRC would win and that made it possible for them to protest vote...for Jill Stein. And then there was Jim Comey, the dumbest FBI guy ever who stopped her campaign in its tracks. It was one black swan event after another. He hopes to raise a billion dollars. Well HRC raised 1.4-billion and she still lost. And Trump keeps on digging into racism because it really is all he has. His rallies reflect a base that won’t put him over the top. Trump is sawing through the floor around his feet. I say 400 EVs & the Senate.
2
Rob K. commented earlier: "Let us not forget the fault of those who do not vote at all." That struck a nerve, because I've been struggling with something all day.
I consider myself a New Deal Democrat. I am 62, and I have *never* voted for a Republican in my life. (I guess that makes me a Yellow Dog Democrat, too.)
I despise Trump. I consider him to be an enemy of the Constitution -- a set of principles for our self-government which on multiple occasions I have sworn to uphold and defend; I take seriously that obligation.
For a liberal who believes that *all* of the rights guaranteed in our Bill of Rights and in the Civil War Amendments to the Constitution are precious -- and hard-won in bloody wars -- my own party's candidates' positions on gun control that I read in today's online edition of NYT give me great concern. (Believe, me; as an "armed liberal," I know I'm *very* much in the minority here, although not alone; see https://theliberalgunclub.com/
Hence the difficulty. I will *not* vote for Trump; yet I cannot in good conscience vote for someone who proposes measures that are unconstitutional or unenforceable; will lead to noncompliance, division, and rebellion; and make criminals out of otherwise law-abiding citizens. My own party will be "sowing the wind, and reaping the whirlwind."
I have never missed voting in a presidential election. I never dreamed that I might. I hope one of the Democrats tempers his or her position.
1
The Democrats need to change their messaging. Instead of Trump this or Trump that .........
"Just Say No!"
Catchy, isn't it.
No to Trump.
No to McConnell.
No to a right-wing extremist Supreme Court.
No to Climate Change deniers.
No to white supremists.
No to health care rip-offs.
No to misogyny.
No to tampered elections.
Yes to America for all Americans.
3
this opinion piece gets off to a rather good start... First 3 points are solid. And the 4th- which really addresses Biden's lack of intellectual sharpness, compared to Trump... ( the unspoken sentence here is: in comparison to Trump's obvious intellectual advantage in quick thinking and pointed delivery.)...
But I think the author takes a wrong turn when he claims that Trump's "lies and gaffes and errors" are what his constituents expect. The fact is--- that at least when Trump makes a case for "Truthful Hyperbole"-- which he no doubt often does... He does it with a great deal of WIT and INTELLIGENCE.. And we all know where the hyperbole is. Because it is ARTFULLY applied, and smartly and effectively stated..
As opposed to Biden, the Democratic frontrunner, who doesn't have the least sense of artful hyperbole. In fact, with Biden, it is simply pure dementia I think. As Pres. Trump put it succinctly, Biden can't throw a fastball anymore. haha
2
you are actually citing Nate Silver? The guy who had all of the data and all of the knowledge to explain in the months leading up to the election that it was essentially a toss up given the margin of error, a message that just might have encouraged the few thousand people who decided not to go out and vote to go out and vote, but who never actually honestly said that until the result was announced.
And falling back on the idea that 'the Russians' are the only ones who have the ability to influence opinion with targeted messages to the clueless and the 'undecided'.
Get a grip dude. Sad piece to say the least.
bozo's advantage is that there are far too many clueless people in this country waiting for someone to tell them what to think and how to act instead of going out and finding real information and then making an intelligent decision. Just ask the people who used to work at Cambridge Analytica. They have the answers.
There was in incident in El Paso this past weekend. Seems to be the case that the person behind the act was relying on bozo for continued support of his bad ideas.
How stupid do you actually have to be to think that shooting a bunch of people shopping for pencils and notebooks for the new school year is going to change anything materially in this country?
The more talk there is about 'the bad ideas' the more people read those ideas. Then the word 'bad' starts to blur and disappear.
Maybe you're helping by spreading the nonsense.
2
You can’t put up a old jalopy like the dems are doing against a Ferrari and expect to win. Can you?
2
I will vote for Mr. Trump, not because he is a great human being or that he is eloquent. He is not. He, however, seems to know what America needs to move ahead.
The opposing Democrats, however, do not seem to know that: "It's the economy, stupid."
Any and all of their proposed programs will cost the taxpayer additional money in taxes.
If any one of them emerges with a workable program, not pie in the sky, I will pay attention.
So, show me something.
5
Another major advantage Trump has is the disinterest the major media outlets have in giving Governor Bill Weld, the other Republican seeking the party’s nomination, any attention at all. When was the last time you wrote about Mr. Weld? How about asking him to comment on the recent mass shootings on national TV? How about covering one of his rallies? You guys are gatekeeping, limiting Republican voters’ choice. Shame on you!
4
As I read this I am uplifted by Joe Biden's speech today. We are a long way off from Nov 2020 and there is a lot of damage that trump can and undoubtedly will do.
trump is and remains a thief and a crook. That is the bottom line. He and his administration do not even pay their debts.
I know it's depressing at times. But maybe better times lie ahead. Regardless lots of people seriously despise him.
If he wins he could seat up to SIX supremes.
Trump the Terrible can do some serious damage.
1
After Daddy Bush, "W" Bush,
where Pubs became normed to dumb and dumber,
Trump does, indeed, look like a genius most days.
Let's face it, the Pubs and their supporters don't have a long history of picking, umm, well spoken men.
You reap what you sow. Yes, it' a cliche, but like all cliche's, there's some truth to it.
Trump has sown so much divisiveness and anger and fear and 'us against them' hatred that sooner (than later) people are going to get fed up.
The American people are not stupid; they are starting to get tired of the Trump nonsense.
Oh, and by the way, do you feel safer today than you did three years ago? There are now 40,000 killed by guns each year in America. We need new leadership.
1
Mr Trump is a potent cult leader as hypnotic and seductive as Jim Jones and many many people have gladly swallowed his kool-aid. He is difficult to fight because he skillfully invokes cathartic emotion at a very high level - in fact his abilities are unmatched. Why oh why do people keep confusing him with standard reality. He is not and never will be a leader - only a cult leader. The only way to unseat him is to treat him as if he were dangerously mentally ill and in need of help, and his mental illness manifests itself in lying. Outrage only fuels outrage like opposing football teams. Get some help candidates - but from psychiatrists and psychologists - quit looking in there for sanity, there isn’t any.
I think it's called normalization.
Before ceding the 2020 election to that bumbling, hate-filled liar, I’m willing to bet on a surprise that might turn everything upside-down. For example, what if there’s a surge of minority and/or young voters who go to the polls to vote against the stable genius, or what if China gets involved the way the Russians did in 2016, or what if enough people in key states just wise up and say, we’ve had enough of this incompetent enemy of the people. Four years is enough of the clown show.
2
I go back to the days of JFK. I've never witnessed a president this reviled, this hated. I predict DT loses in a landslide. There may be a few people who didn't vote for him in 2016 who will vote for him thanks to a better than average economy, but the majority of American voters will not want four more years of an embarrassment to the country, egotistical, narcissistic, racist, white supremacist-leaning president. I predict that voter turn out will rival that of Obama in 2008. All those folks who didn't vote in 2016 because they hated Hillary or were disappointed that Bernie wasn't the nominee, will suddenly find a reason to come out and vote against Trump. There are enough voters who hate this president until he will not only lose, he'll lose big. Never before have I witnessed a president so hated as this guy.
1
Trump 2020 - the number of years he should spend in prison.
3
The Republican Party is a sick political organization; Trump is doing a masterful job of controlling that messy lot.
1
Do you think, as a member of the elite mainstream media, that maybe, maybe you can call him out on every gaff and innuendo and falsehood he makes? If you have to cover him 24/7, which has been done since 2016, can you, the media, highlight his ignorance, his racism, his deviance? Please?
1
Precisely. It's the Hillary emails writ small.
1
Yet another columnist who seems to ignore the last election, also a referendum on Trump, in which there was a resounding defeat of the Republican agenda across the country. I get that you have to fill space, NYT, but honestly, some of your crew are really wasting our time with their endless hand wringing over a future that will never be.
1
"I want them to talk about racism every day,” Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump’s former strategist, told The American Prospect last year. “If the left is focused on race and identity, and we go with economic nationalism, we can crush the Democrats.”
The Democrats’ White-People Problem
Donald Trump likes to pit elite and non-elite white people against each other. Why do white liberals play into his trap?
theatlantic.com
What I the topic of today's NYT headline?
1
What do you do with a bully who is lazy like a bag of potatoes, dodges assignments and duties alike, and is a pathological liar?
You treat him like that student that is worth nothing. You do not help him to enrich himself at your cost. You kick him out of your boat, plane, class, house, life. It is time to wean a sucker, America. Trump does not know that because when he looks into a mirror he believes to see America. And Melania won't help, she lacks basic skills for everything, which is why bullying is highest agenda item. Time to wean the suckers, America.
2
The Democrats can win. First they need to take an absurd position. Maybe something like decriminalizing illegal immigration and giving illegal immigrants free health care. Then they need to say that anyone who disagrees with that position is a facsist, racist, bigot Trump supporter. Then they reap all the votes. They are already half way there! For bonus support they should demonize all white men. I will only vote for someone who kicks me when i am down.
3
America is sick. Even speculating that the Liar could win does not change a thing. A pervert, a liar, a grifter, a womanizer, an amoral individual and on and on and people might vote for that crass? America is hitting bottom.
I cannot look at him and even less listen to him: he makes me sick.
I am blessed to live in Canada where people like him would be laughed at off the stage and permanently shunned.
5
Perhaps a majority of Trump supporters aren't white supremacists, but they evidently don't care that their president acts like one and is supported by such racist miscreants. It's rather like the Germans who at first supported Hitler, but not necessarily all his policies. Looking back, could someone argue that they didn't really support the Nazis? And as we have seen, the GOP's base has become even more Trumpian since his inauguration as they have become increasingly anti-trade and politically divisive, as well as tone deaf to their leader's blatant lies and racism.
Let me propose an alternative course for the Democrats. Let Democrats continue to call white supremacists out where they see them, but also promise that they'll take themselves and the states supporting them out of the union if the electoral college gives another victory to Trump despite his winning a lower popular vote. Over the years, many conservatives have threatened secession if they don't get their way, so turnabout is more than fair especially now that the United States is becoming an increasingly intolerant, corrupt nation. Besides, only fools consent to play a game they know is rigged against them.
The Republican Party, AKA the Trump Party, is the current spiritual home of America’s angry white guys including neo-Nazis and the Klan.
The country is badly in need of a new Conservative Party --representing traditional conservative voters -- to replace it.
Liberal Democrats -- working alone -- will never be enough to restore a measure of unity to this country.
2
One is put in mind of H.L. Mencken: -- “As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
Democracy has it's limitations - The ignorant sheep are easier to herd and they breed like Voles.
So dictators are never benevolent!
It knocks me backwards to read, still, how little you hold yourselves accountable for this innoculation. You rubbed the alchohol, you prepped the syringe, you made the injection.
1
Yeah, NYT pick apart the democratic nominee while giving trump tons of coverage, just like last time. Thanks a lot.
2
The white supremacy of low expectations.
1
Isn't this interesting that on the day that Trump is condemned for his racist policies and remarks by almost every one, suddenly two articles - one by Nate Cohn and this one by Frank Bruni - appear in the NYT, and elsewhere, trying to convince the US public that Trump is in fact popular, is covertly supported by many, and has a good chance of getting re-elected.
The timing of these articles are of particular interest. It reminds those who followed Mr. Trump election campaign in 2016 of another "coincident."
In February 2016, while visiting Mexico, Pope Francis, alluding to Mr. Trump, stated that:
"A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian. This is not the gospel."
This was an important message to American Catholics, essentially suggesting to them not to vote for Trump.
So, what did happen next? Immediately - that is, the next day - an old story, which dragged the reputation of Vatican and its popes through the mud, resurfaced. Almost all major media outlets in the US and Europe carried that story. It was about Pope John Paul II relationship with Anna-Teresa Tymieniecka, a Polish philosopher, who used to live in Vermont.
The story was not new and had been previously published by those working on Pope John Paul's memoir. It was based on letters that were exchanged between him and Tymieniecka. Those letters were bought by the National Library of Poland in 2008 and were available to researchers.
1
To all of the people commenting about the health of the economy, low unemployment, etc., I have a question. If a democrat suggested incurring the deficits and debt that this bunch is incurring to achieve those goals, would you be touting their benefits? This is not the “Trump economy”. This is an economy that is being paid for on a credit card in the name of our children and grandchildren. This is a disgrace.
4
I preface this by saying that I hate Trump:
He will get reelected. Maybe he SHOULD get reelected. There is a large percentage of people in this country, the ones who have most of the guns, who support this pathetic little man so vehemently that I have no doubt they'd go to war for him against their fellow citizens. It's like a cult.
So let's imagine a Democrat gets elected. Without a big majority in the Senate, nothing will get done. So we will have, through no fault of his own, an ineffective President who can't get anything done. The nation is due for a recession, so if we don't have one before the election I bet we will shortly after. Ineffective Prez, and bad economy....that's a recipe for Repubs getting emphatic control of both houses of Congress.
I hate to say this but I almost think we have to have this nightmare of a President for another term in order to eventually recover. But I'm pretty depressed about the state of this country and world so hopefully I'm wrong.
2
One by one, black leaders whose cities have been demeaned by Trump, are speaking out against him. The ice preventing outspoken criticism of Trump has been broken, and that criticism will only increase.
Trump supporters now have to defend racism and the killing of innocents to maintain their support of Trump. Gradually, fewer will be willing to associate themselves with mayhem and mindless killing.
These are trends which eventually grow and neither one is good for Trump's reelection. He knows if he loses 2020, he's likely to face jail time for the crimes articulated in Mueller's report. Trump's only hope is hacking of the polls and I'm certain he's working hard to accomplish the complete usurpation of our democracy. He is a rat who will gnaw thru every shred of decency and morality to retain his position.
1
I hope someday we can live in a world where shamelessness, pathological lying and lack of ethics and morals are no longer advantages.
1
Frank, whom I admire, is wrong here. Trump fans watch Fox, which never, ever points out gaffes by this president. Me, I read Bruni and the other distinguished journalists at NYT, who regularly point out Trump's whoppers, weasels, and whacks. I watch as Stephen Colbert picks apart the gross mispronunciations, inaccuracies, and misnomers so unendingly spewing from the presidential mouth.
And, unnerved, I watch Trump. And listen. And hear. Trump fans receive their idol in carefully curated doses. That way they can say he quelled the crowd shouting "send her back," strongly condemned white supremacy, is the least racist person they've ever met — although for a lot of his base, that last is probably true.
1
Lots of white Americans, but also plenty of immigrants who are here legally, like Trump because they genuinely believe he likes them and is looking out for them. They also forgive his dumb stuff because they love that he’s not an experienced beltway politician. And they consider his racist comments as poking the media and Democrats with a stick, not as true racism. There are also quite a few Democrats who may find Trump foul but could stay home on Election Day if the party’s candidate wants free college, single payer, and lax border control. All of this and a good economy and, yeah, Trump could win again. People aren’t deep thinkers. It is what it is.
2
Mr. Bruni, does this mean you're sorry you criticized Biden's debate performance? I can well understand the regret, if that's what you're feeling.
2
Don't forget Carter. He wasn't re-elected, either... thank you, Iranian meddling?
Factual error: I don't believe Jimmy Carter won re-election either. i wish he had, but he didn't.
1
What EXACTLY did Russia do in 2016? Never saw a Russian ad on TV, online or in a newspaper. Never saw a Russian lawn sign on any of my neighbors front lawns. Don't know any Russians who talked to me about the election. I don't get it!
3
If you need be like Trump to beat Trump, what is the point?
The squad's messaging is not going to help even if there was a slightest chance of Democrats winning in 2020. Why do you think the GOP picks up on everything the squad member say? because the squad is their secret weapon.
1
I expect you wrote this before hearing Biden speak today. He was great. He’s not my first choice, but he is presidential.
1
Another esteemed NYT Op Ed colleague suggests that the only Democratic candidate who can stand up to Trump's bullying is Kamala Harris. I am not a particular Harris fan, but I get his point - there needs to be a prosecutor standing up to the White Supremacist in Chief, who knows (as your colleague said) that bullying is manifestation of fear.
1
His supporters know that in many ways he really is one of them: the über wealthy know he will do what benefits them; the anti-choice know he will support them; ditto the bigots; ditto the willfully ignorant.
That covers ~50% of the American electorate. And Trump knows he quite likely will carry the Electoral College again.
1
You're right. Everyone else has to fight to demonstrate their principles and their policies and their leadership, except for Trump.
Not because he's the incumbent. God no. But because his glaring LACK of principles and leadership - and that sine qua non that is the GOP wall of silent agreement that there should be no consequences for Trump, ever - are his body armor.
He's got Mitch, he's got Kevin, and he's got Bill Barr.
What's another scandal? who cares what shocking thing he says or does? He's protected by his own slime.
2
Frank Bruni claimed that when Trump was "caught on tape bragging about the unwanted touching of women and much of the electorate’s (Trump supporters) reaction is: Yeah, sounds about right."
Many of of my American relatives voted for Trump. When I asked them about the tape, their response was that they had a choice between a guy that bragged about making unwanted sexual advances on woman and a woman who used every tool at her disposal to destroy other woman who made sexual misconduct accusations against her husband, an accused rapist.
1
If Trump wins it’s because voters decided against America and for an authoritarian dictatorship.
This may be how America dies.
3
Let's be real here. Why did Clinton lose ? She was a bad candidate. Simple as that. She had more skeletons in her closet than a Hollywood haunted house. Nobody trusted her, and she had to fight her husband's legacy as well. Trump ? Like my buddy who voted for him said, 'Why not. Give the guy a chance'. OK, well he's had his chance. He's had chances and plenty of them. I can't kind of one single positive thing he's done for the average American taxpayer. But again, let's be real. Much of rural America is very racist. Trump played these people like a fiddle with his 'fear the immigrant' schtick. And he'll do it again. Why not. Worked once. What the Democrats HAVE to do is come up with a good candidate. Someone with ideas, who can talk about something other than gun control and racism. Trump has done nothing, he can't beat a solid Democratic candidate. It's as simple as that. If they don't, Trump will lose the popular vote and win the EC. Again.
2
Trump is fundamentally a bully, with a bully's sophisticated sense of who he can bully and who he cannot. If the Democratic Nominee is someone he can't bully, he will refuse to debate -- the pretext will be that the debates sponsored by the "fake news" networks are inherently "unfair," and that he won't participate. He set this precedent when he refused to participate in a debate with Megyn Kelly as a moderator/questioner.
1
Frank, you forgot to mention the biggest unfair advantage of them all - the Obama Economy that Trump inherited.
It’s the economy, stupid, and the economy is in fantastic shape. Plus, this Kansas City Fed Governor just gave a speech last week saying The Fed remains steadfast in making sure the economic expansion continues. It pains me to say this, but not even Donald Trump could lose with this economic scenario, and the Fed is going to loosen the money supply to guarantee the economy hums along at least through Election Day.
1
Tell me who won the race for POTUS in Wisconsin in 2020 ,and I will tell you won the presidency.
1
Trump speaks to the working middle class without calling them a “basket of deplorables”. Clearly Democrats have total disregard for this constituency which still carries enough political power to win the rust belt. I’ve been voting for over 45 years and have to say Biden is the weakest candidate I’ve ever seen on the debate stage. He is a disaster. He’s the candidate of the ruling elites because he can be so easily manipulated. He stands for nothing
Please watch Anderson Cooper's interview with Biden and then the speech Biden gave in Iowa today (8/7).
Then talk to us about him.
A good name for a Donald Trump biography would be Diminished Expectations.
I agree, Mr Bruni, ignorance underlies suffering. White privilege has a legacy of suffering without a comparator.
Don't be naive Mr. and Mrs Voter. Vote as though our lives really matter and remove the occupant of the White House. Toni Morrison may not be in her previous place of residence but she will not abandon we the people.
Some people who voted for him wanted regulations reduced, check, wanted conservative judges, check, and wanted tax cuts for the wealthy, check. They will continue to offer tortured rationalizations. Others are angry, racist, less educated white men, they still are angry and hate progressives even more check. Few will admit that for the most part they've been conned, every Republican Contender called him a phony, a fake, a fraud but so quiet on that front even as his behavior degrades further. It's all about turnout and maybe flipping some suburban mom's who can no longer tolerate the stench coming from the oval office.
2
The Democrats need to gracefully retire their well-intentioned but ineffective geriatric leaders to advisory roles.
People like Pelosi, Schumers, Sanders and Biden have to admit their fundamental responsibility for the Republican ascendancy over the last few decades despite a litany of enormous Republican-led failures - wars fought on the basis of known lies; a global financial crisis enabled by laissez faire policies and self-interest; climate-change denialist idiocy.
This article, well done Mr. Bruni.
It would be so nice if the Democrats said something about why free trade is a good thing and why Trump's trade wars are ridiculous.
1
Trump's divisive rhetoric is unparalleled among US presidents . His advantage, like that of all demagogues, is that every statement or comment is abrogated or modified by a subsequent one, leaving one with nothing.
1
Hillary called Trump and his supporters deplorables. Things did not work out well for her. The current label for Trump and his supporters has morphed from "deplorable" to "racist". The term "racist" is politically charged but really only means to a Dem liberal that you disagree with them. Many people resent this and will vote for Trump out of spite. Whomever is chosen by the Dems to run against Trump will not have an easy time debating him. Biden? Forget it. Beside which, the one thing most people say about Trump whether they like him or not is that he did try to deliver on his campaign promises, whether one agrees with the substance of those promises or not. The Dem liberals obstructed him at ever turn. One only has to look at the actions and histrionics of Feinstein and "Spartacus" during the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, a jurist ultra liberal Ruth Bader Ginsberg has called a highly intelligent and effective jurist. Look at the actions of Jerry Nadler whose deep personal animus of Trump has destroyed any claim to his objectivity and judgment. My prediction is that Trump will be reelected in 2020 and it will be the Dem liberals who can claim the credit for this.
2
Trump has been campaigning for reelection ever since he became president. He had a huge crowd last week in Ohio which the MSM hardly covered. If they come out for rallies they will come out to vote. How can any Democrat compete with that? We don't have a democracy as long as we have the electoral college, gerrymandering, voter suppression, foreign interference, fake news and a gullible electorate which believes obvious lies.
2
On election night in 2016, when I realized that Trump had won, I had the same horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that I had on September 11, 2001. If he wins again in 2020, I can't imagine how I will feel. I can understand the apathy, the Hillary baggage, and the sheer ignorance that gave Trump his 2016 win. If the American people elect him in 2020, after 4 years of his corrosive presidency, we are doomed, and that is not an exaggeration.
3
I think his biggest advantage is that he generates so much money for media companies, that they have a giant financial interest in seeing him re-elected.
I'm still waiting for the major media outlets to basically have warning banners and dedicated pages that you can click on from the home pages (prominently displayed) to find out how often he lies, and how racist he is, how much better off the economy and deficit would be if he hadn't interfered, his failed attempts to take healthcare away from 20 million people, the progress on the many investigations ongoing against him, etc.
Can the NYT and WaPo say they did everything in their power to make it clear how awful Trump is, and how awful his constituents are?
1
“All of these complaints (reference to Democratic presidential candidates), I think, were accurate and fair. But they’re also picayune….”
Mea culpas are appreciated Frank, but I hope you’ve learned a lesson. In the future, it might be better to pick your words more carefully when you write about the only likely option for change is through an election. I know a journalist strives tries to be objective and fair, but the danger of writing about Democratic candidates performance, as if you were trying to critique a fashion show, is counter productive for brining change to the White House.
Democrats will suffer at the polls because they are worse than Trump. Think about that. Democratic policy proposals have been awful, and the unending stream of phony accusations Democrats in the media have made in an attempt to discredit Trump given the party a bad name.
2
On good days, I think the country will throw Trump out of office in 2020 given his blatant indecency. In bad moments, I think the country won’t be rid of Trump, due to the cult of personality surrounding him, until his passing—like Venezuela was not rid of Hugo Chavez until his passing. This is absolutely and in no way about an untimely death, in my mind it’s only a natural passing. This is about the spell he seems to be able to cast over people, blinding them to the corrosive effects of his leadership. I don’t think he even knows what it is. He simply has it.
That’s what I think in the bad moments.
Great. Hope He wiil, like FDR, be re-elected to a third term. Best president, aside than Reagan, in decades. Hail the Chief!
Trump is a clear reflection of the mediocrity of much of America.
It is the voters that are responsible for Trump and the country’s decline.
Our public education system has failed America, mostly corrupted by local boards of education and their biases.
Now in 2019 America is reaping all its mistakes from its past.
Well, given that Trump pretty much defines ignorance in action, a recession or some terrible foreign policy disaster seem likely outcomes. Boris Johnson leading the UK to a crash-out and setting off a global recession could be the ultimate tribute from student to master.
It is our responsibility as citizen’s to vote. Figure out the candidates, the voting rules. Every citizen needs to vote. Do the home work. Mail in your vote if you’re in a gerrymandered or corrupt manipulating district. We need to take back the country peacefully. We do not need to circum to the hate of the US government. Abolish citizen’s united!
1
The GOP sets miserably low expectations for this president and he excels at failing to achieve them.
I think that even for Nate Cohn it is too early to predict the outcome of the next election.
Polls show that among 4 different categories of registered voters, emphasis on registered, Democrats, Republicans, Independents either lean Democrat or Republican, slightly over 50% will vote for a Democrat.
The only problem will be in which state they live and if some are again throwing their vote into the trash bin by voting for a possible third party candidate.
My only hope is that yet not registered latino heritage citizens will register in masses and vote as if their lives depend on it - which is indeed the case -, and that the younger among us register to vote en masse as well.
2
Will someone please do this country the favor of revealing more about the family that Trump grew up in? We know every detail about Obama's single mother and grandparents, his upbringing and education, but almost nothing about Trump's relationship with his mother and father or even if he has siblings, let alone former wives and girlfriends. How did he get to be the way he is?
It is our responsibility as citizen’s to vote. Figure out the candidates, the voting rules. Every citizen needs to vote. Do the home work. Mail in your vote if you’re in a gerrymandered or corrupt manipulating district. We need to take back the country peacefully. We do not need to circum to the hate of the US government. Abolish citizen’s united!
Maybe then the media shouldn't nitpick the Democrats? Criticize big things on both sides, not little things? If there is more to criticize on one side, criticize that side more. Don't seek balance where there is none.
2
Advantage back to the democrats if they pursue impeachment, which will motivate their base, and pick Elizabeth Warren or Amy Klobuchar as their candidate
The author seems to be subtly suggesting that we the voters give Trump a pass on his outrageous behavior.
Trump's advantage is the left's blind hatred of him. His supporters in 2016 are still largely behind him. Those on the fence see the irrational behavior of Trump's critics and they go his way. The left is too infuriated to see that they are their own worst enemy.
The guy has a ton of support because his supporters get to pick on people of color without any consequence. It's their dream guy. He's dreamy to them.
The rest of us? Not so much.
But we will be ok...he's old.
Does it really matter to the average guy who is president.
Probably not. When you look at the Democratic mumblers and fumblers, maybe we're better leaving well enough
alone. At least Trump is fun to watch. Just don't take him
seriously.
Trump doesn't need the nomination to be rigged.
If the press fails again, if lies, corruption, convictions and pending charges, and lingering scandals are glossed over again we may have another 4 years. Bruni and all others in the press must take the time to carefully analyze their roles in burying the news and racing toward any distraction Trump offers. Yes the press is like a middle school gossip. Breathlessly rush to shiny distractions and abandoning Helsinki. You are all complicit.
All that Trump and his zombies have to do to secure the next election is simply a bit of judo. They can claim any day that they just now have enough evidence of climate change, and yes, it is driving all those people from their farms and homes south of us, creating those hoards at the border. Africa, and much of the darker-skinned world, are right behind them
With a few exceptions, Democrat contenders mostly only murmur about climate change, The Republicans can be fresh zealots, though of course their policies will likely only help the wealthy and the military-industrial complex and will doubtlessly involve more nationalistic cruelty. Trump and his followers will appear intelligent for having seen the light, and perhaps considered rightly cautious, as though they were justified in needing a higher standard of proof than all the world's climate scientists have provided to date.
Trump's intellectually challenged base will believe whatever he says, and his base that is intelligent but morally bankrupt can relieve themselves of some idiotic denial. And there will be Democrat defectors who hold their nose, but believe that their own party will not do enough to match the threat.
For the Republicans, climate change can be the moral equivalent of war. That war's manifestations are likely to be anything but moral. Climate change = border security and immigration threat = Trump. So easy, a child could do it.
It’s the same advantage he had in 2016. If the left hasn’t figured out how to manage it in 4 years, shame on us.
There was a line in the 2016 election that said Trump supporters take him seriously but not literally, while his detractors take him literally but not seriously. Nothing has changed.
The literal press gets Trump wrong. There’s little that’s literal about Trump. He’s narcissism and hyperbole and bluster, like the annoying guy in the office. He’s not a politician. He has little patience with protocol, which he sees as tiresome and ineffective. He believes in himself. He works the phones. He’s not brilliant, but he’s also not stupid. And he’s not ineffective.
None of this is to say I support him. His language is cruel and divisive. But much as I think he must be turned out of office, not any substitute will do. The democrats are drowning in incompetence. Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris — none is electable, and none would be good for the country or world. Mayor Pete, he’s interesting. My first political dollar went to Tulsi Gabbard. Both may be too inexperienced, but maybe not.
But the party’s a mess. It has no uniting vision, no story, no there, there. Like Hillary. Which in my view is the real reason Trump may win again.
1
Daily reading of NY Times op/eds often become ever more jarring experiences. Frank Bruni =s pice today seems to almost be hoping trump wis another term to be able to write and say "I told you so".
I realize the dead seriousness this country faces in the likelihood of another 4 years of this grossly incompetent president's remaining in office and the continued destruction that would entail. A major threat , aside from the inevitable hacking into our election process, is Trump's intractable 'base' , those citizens who will never give up their blind, ignorant loyalty. They are complicit in his mission to destroy the foundations and principles upon which our nation was founded.
"That’s not because we in the media have stopped scrutinizing him and chronicling his errors and outrages. It’s because there are so many that they blur. It’s because they’re baked into the Trump brand. They’re part of the deal that his supporters have made. This is the Trump they bought. This is the Trump they’ll keep."
This is the phenomena called being "Trumptuse", willful obliviousness of the facts so that one can hate.
1
Out of all your reasoning and assumptions of how Trump got elected in a manner that democrats couldn't, you never once mention the most obvious fact: that millions of Trump supporters have fallen for a conman. Which makes them marks. Sheesh.
No.
You’re wrong.
It is precisely because you ‘...in the media have stopped scrutinizing him and chronicling his errors and outrages.’
Frank, What you are really saying is that the media likes to write about the low hanging fruit. It is much easier to write an article about Biden getting the places of the two recent shootings wrong or to write about his fuzziness in debates, than it is to write about the policy positions of candidates. And we all know that the media has long used a false sense of balance and equivalency when reporting. For example, if the medi is writing something critical of one party’s candidate, they have to find something critical to write about the other party’s candidates, even if the one candidate’s (in this case the president) actions are continuously horrible and outside of normal and the other candidate’s are more in the order of putting a comma in the wrong place. There is also the tendency of the media to accept the premise that there are always twos sides to an issue and report on both, even if one side is supported by facts and research and the other is supported by lies, made up “facts”, and misrepresentations.
If the media, including the NY Times would do a better job of ignoring the trivial and reporting on the important, and not giving oxygen to those who consistently lie, misrepresent, and push racism and bigotry, he country and the election would be in a much better state. Remember that it was the media, including the Times, that gave Trump so must uncritical coverage in 2025 and 2016 and did not do the enterprise reporting that would have derailed him early on.
1
This advantage is true, and it starts with the media. Journalists have been giving him a pass since the oranges of his campaign, while shredding Clinton to pieces (see Trump Foundation vs Clinton Foundation coverage in 2016–and which campaign had to close due to shady activity? We didn’t hear much analysis about this, except for David Farenthold at WaPo).
Installment 400 in the Times series, 'Nobody Likes Him, There Was Definitely Cheating Last Time, But He Will Magically Win Without Any Cheating Next Time And Here's Why ... "
If he wins, it will be by cheating - just like last time
The only question is whether or not Frank Bruni is actively participating in the cheat. This article strongly suggest he is.
Latinx Americans, here legally, all over the country are now terrified to even shop, or speak their native language in public, so why would they dare risk standing in a line to vote?
The El Paso shooter drove all the way across Texas to target that Walmart because it is one of the 10 biggest in the country and mostly Mexicans and Latinx shop there. The shooter clearly stated in his manifesto that these invaders had to be wiped out. There is great fear among conservatives in Texas about the fact that the Latinx population will soon outnumber white Texans, which is well documented and widely known, also by the shooter.
This is the most monstrous and dangerous advantage of them all, and no, Trump not only won't do anything to stop it, but will continue to foment this terror. It's the ultimate tool of voter suppression.
1
Mr. Bruni forgot to mention that Trump has the advantage of leading a Republican party devoid of ethics, patriotism and respect for the rule of law.
1
Another advantage is the Democratic leader is afraid of his base.
So he will not be held to account for his obtruction of Justice.
With all due respect to Joe Biden, I hope he is not the chosen candidate; it will be 2016 all over again. We need a fresh candidate, I prefer Elisabeth Warren, but any of the others will do also.
This column has always provided an insight, a point of view, or just the right amount of humor to keep me from completely losing my mind about the current sorry state of our politics and culture. But in the last month or so, I feel compelled to ask, "where is the real Frank Bruni and what have you done with him?!?" It is understandable if you need a short vacation or some time to regroup. Whatever it takes, but for all our sakes, pull yourself together!
Better the music hall turn than the cold, ruthless arrogance of the people, including much of the media, that was the alternative. You could have had Bernie, but you preferred the dark side and the voters smelled you out. You missed your tide.
Trump is fission to the formerly nuclear fusion of outstanding_white_man_leader and moral_righteous_benevolent_chieftain.
He exposes and perhaps personifies the seediness, cruelty, salaciousness, and grift that was always present on the other side of the powerman myth.
So maybe it’s progress that our country’s original sins, lies and baked in unfairness have been exposed. Let’s hope.
You forgot one factor in the 2020 election that do Trump in: mass violence.
1
The Donald only has to be presidential but for a few moments for the Media to be fawning over him.
Went to Omaha Beach yesterday and cannot stop thinking about how Trump is deliberately destroying Pax Americana. 75 years of America on top through leadership of the Free World and driving the Soviet Union out-of-business through economics of a cold war, not a hot war. Reagan: Crazy like a fox!
Is Trump aiming for creating a USA/Russia/China Axis Superpower? Is he that strategic? Is Trump "crazy like a fox", too? Or just transactional and resents subsidizing Europe and having IP secrets stolen by China?
I don't believe all is not lost.
I am buoyed by a morning consult poll (taken in July) that showed Trump is upside down (having higher disapproval ratings than approval) in the following 2016 red states: Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida & Michigan.
And his approval ratings are a net positive five points or less in the perennial red states GA, North Dakota, Indiana & Kansas. In GA, it is razor thin 2 points.
To me that is a sign that the fever breaking. I know it is early, but I think that this nation and its citizens are craving for something better than this..... And they are no longer going to overlook his lies and obfuscations
186
Besides all the op-ed's cited advantages, 2020 comes down to Trump versus 'X', and the current 'X' is a basket of deplorables. The outcome seems pretty obvious at this stage. Four more years.
Sorry to say, America is a broken, divided country. The Democrats and collective media's relentless focus on Trump's copious flaws has done nothing to heal it. And the other media outlet (look up the definition of fox - the animal), and social media (whether Russian influenced or not) that bolsters Trump with equal fervor has just deepened the schism.
History is a great teacher of societal collapse. Examples abound from the HRE to Mayans to the former Soviet Union. America may just be the next chapter.
3
I think we cannot underestimate the likelihood that Russia has put this guy where he is and will keep him there. Let's assess:
- US now a completely divided almost dysfunctional country - check
- Russia's two biggest opponents on the world stage are pulling each other into economic collapse - check
- little or nothing has been done to improve voting security since last time - check
- Oh, and Great Britain fell for "Brexit" and now a stooge is running that country too - check mate
Perhaps this is war of the 21st century - why waste money on bullets when you can spend money on bits and spread hatred and ideology through social media for $0? Then let countries tear themselves apart and you can mop up the rest. Even better, all you need to do is nudge - you don't have to act until later when you can just start taking what you want and who will oppose you? That divided, failing country over there?
I'm interested to know how the FOX propaganda channel factors into this - which I don't think this paper has truly explored. But it's clear to me that Trump will win again - perhaps down 10m in the popular vote - but he'll win and that's when Moscow moves West to the aptly named Foggy Bottom...
5
He would never have won if it wasn’t for the Russian interference, and he as well as the GOP are making sure that stays the same in 2020.
3
Great. Hope He will, like FDR, be re-elected to a third term. Best president, aside than Reagan, in decades. Hail the Chief!
2
There’s one other big advantage Trump has and that is a vibrant economy and low unemployment. Democrats don’t like to talk about that as most of the policies of the candidates would put an end to all that in the name of “fairness” or “diversity” or “global warming” or some such thing all financed by higher taxes. Good luck with that!
3
The Dems disadvantage is largely self-inflicted - they are falling over themselves to prove to an uninterested public how "woke" they are. Trump is the antithesis of "woke" - so people who are uncomfortable with Gillibrand's witch hunt on Franken, for example, find themselves more aligned with Trump.
1
As toast is a (boring) convenient delivery system for supplying yummy jelly, Trump is a (not boring) convenient delivery system for supplying what much of America wants, from a conservative court to legal immigration to economic policies that favor middle class people. Thus Dems need to understand, with the MAGA hats and the rallies and the chanting and all the rest that the cheering is just a little bit for the toast, and a whole lot for the swaths of sweet jelly.
Have you folks seen "Margin Call"? Jeremy Irons has one of his great moments playing CEO of a Lehmann-type operation, leading a 2:30 AM meeting of the brass and some junior analysts, just a few hours after one of the latter discovered the entire financial edifice, beginning with "Lehman" itself, is about to collapse. The scene's power entails him acting oblivious to the issues involved, presenting his talent and his job as responding to inscrutable jargon with simple common sense logic, distilling a predicament (which he has the discovering analyst summarize) into blunt essentials (a moment of ultimate reckoning) and a basic survival plan.
We need something like that 2:30 AM speech now.
I believe it would go something like this. The Democratic Party is in free-fall, like the bank in that picture. The Democratic Party starting with Clinton, and barely veering ever since, made a pact with the devil embracing neoliberalism. This alienated the American worker, who was promised M Atoinette style "Let them eat Walmart" (i.e, with their low paying service jobs or govt benefits). Trump swooped in and said to them "the Dems sold you out, but I got your back. Protectionism is the worker's friend, not unemployment and Walmart."
Dems must own up to their mistakes of the last 27 years and say Clinton and his ilk were a con, pure snake oil. Now turning over a new leaf. Pundits who were complicit: major contrition or begone. The cancerous past must be cured or excised.
1
Regrettably, (as you note in your well-written article) sounds about right.
"Every nation gets the government it deserves"
Joseph deMaistre 1753-1821
French diplomat, scholar and philosopher
What I cannot bear is the fact that approx 40% of the electorate voted for him. The sickness is pervasive. The Electoral College (which should be abolished) and whatever Russian interference/hacking took place were the icing on his cake. Shocking how little it took to put the USA in such peril as we watch the Constitution continue to be alternately ravaged and ignored.
3
The die-hard majority of Trump supporters are essentially Cultists, who will still be drinking the Kool-Aid next November. Their fellow travelers will continue to vote their perceived financial self-interest no matter what.
For Trump to be defeated, the Democrats need to do only two things well: 1) Resist the formation of progressive 3rd parties, and/or marginalize their appeal. 2) Get out the progressive vote in large swing states. I'm sure the Party understands this, and hope they can work out viable plans.
I also hope that many of the people who want to end our national nightmare will be willing to work to get out the vote. Success will depend on having enough "boots on the ground" in the right places.
The die-hard majority of Trump supporters are essentially Cultists, who will still be drinking the Kool-Aid next November. Their fellow travelers will continue to vote their perceived financial self-interest no matter what.
For Trump to be defeated, the Democrats need to do only two things well: 1) Resist the formation of progressive 3rd parties, and/or marginalize their appeal. 2) Get out the progressive vote in large swing states. I'm sure the Party understands this, and hope they can work out viable plans.
I also hope that many of the people who want to end our national nightmare will be willing to work to get out the vote. Success will depend on having enough "boots on the ground" in the right places.
Bruni left out, that when the latest accusation came in 2 months ago, Trumps response was..."never, she's not my type".
How many of us (including me) went back and looked at her photos and said, he is right, never happened, she is not his type.
The die-hard majority of Trump supporters are essentially Cultists, who will still be drinking the Kool-Aid next November. Their fellow travelers will continue to vote their perceived financial self-interest no matter what.
For Trump to be defeated, the Democrats need to do only two things well: 1) Resist the formation of progressive 3rd parties, and/or marginalize their appeal. 2) Get out the progressive vote in large swing states. I'm sure the Party understands this, and hope they can work out viable plans.
I also hope that many of the people who want to end our national nightmare will be willing to work to get out the vote. Success will depend on having enough "boots on the ground" in the right places.
I think you underestimate the extent to which voters make allowances for Biden’s verbal fumbles. He’s a known quantity—never the most articulate or clever of candidates but one with many admirable qualities. His support in the polls did not waver after either of those widely criticized debate performances. So he may be benefiting from a Teflon of his own.
Don (share subscription with wife Gay)
Just WHY is Biden the leader for the Democratic ticket anyway????? He is even more lackluster than Clinton was - certainly not the Progressive Fireball that the party and the country needs now!! Color me disappointed and disillusioned - and i'm definitely not the only one. The stakes here are INSANELY high: the amount of damage Mr. Trump could do in a second term, is much higher than most people realize... for example he could continue to politicize and bias the courts of the land to the point that they could carry on and re-enforce the various agenda the Trumpites hold so dear.... and the destruction of consumer, worker and environmental regulations, combined with the systematic witch hunt to minimize the role of science and accurate data of all kinds, in government decision-making... well, let's just say that a second Trump 4 years is NOT an option, and the progressive voters of the nation should be acting accordingly - which would include not offering up another incredibly lame presidential candidate.
Anyone who thinks that Donald Trump will NOT be re elected in 2020 is in serious denial. Of course he’ll be re elected! (If for no other reason than another ‘rigged election’. )Wake up and look around you. Your neighbors voted for this man! Your colleagues support him!
2
Trump made a bet that few, maybe no other, candidates could have pulled off. He seems to play by a different set of rules than those that govern the rest of us. His sons try to act like him, but even they can’t pull it off. It often feels like the only thing that will stop him will be his mortality (the expression goes that only death and taxes are certain, but the only thing certain about taxes for Trump is that he evades them). Until his final day, I fear he’ll be able to behave with impunity. And with his terrible diet and lack of exercise, it seems he might even be getting the upper hand on death.
If your assessment is correct, Mr. Bruni, American citizens now live in a waking nightmare world where up is down, truth is false, and evil is good. And what do we do in such a nation? How do we cope? My own solution would probably be Australia, if I could manage it.
But I do not believe that you are right. I do not believe that even such a monster as Trump could have so totally poisoned our good and great people in a few years. I believe that we will prevail, and that he will be repudiated and forgotten, save as a warning to future Americans that our democracy cannot be taken for granted.
I believe history will judge harshly Republicans leaders who tolerate behavior they abhor in their hearts but refuse to call out because they see Trump as able to implement their preferred policies, and to criticize him might incur his wrath.
After reading this I am scared, because on many levels you are right!. It’s his new normal and unless we work on getting out the vote, we will be stuck with four more years.
1
I believe Trump's outrageous advantage is that he "entertains", whereas most of the Democratic lineup challenging him do not entertain. They appear earnest which is a losing proposition.
4
It seems to me that Mr. Bruni is only looking at the people who are extremists at heart. What about the average, decent person in the United States who wants a government that works and wants a real leader. What about those of us that hate to see how 45 has destroyed our reputation around the world. What about those of us who worry about the future for our grandchildren with the harm coming from climate change or the effect of that on food for example (see today's column). We are being left out of the pundit calculation meter in determining the next election. Try harder for us.
3
Frank,
The inoculation that he has from criticism because, well "That's just the way he is" and "He's not going to change, oh, well" only matters because of the Electoral College. As Nate Cohn points out, it's possible for the Democratic candidate to can win by 5 million votes and Trump can remain in the White House. As long as people, like you, pretend that other things are the bigger problem, then we will continue to have a man in the White House the American people don't want.
4
Mr Bruni, I am not ready to concede the ultimate and essential goodness of the vast majority of Americans (I do realize that you are not making the argument to concede).
I know that our journey has been characterized by all the evils that afflict the human condition since its very beginning.
But I also know that our journey has been a hard and often unsteady movement towards to enlightenment and freedom and redemption.
We are clearly at a moment where the good citizens of American can stand up to say we are ready to defend America's dedication to the principle that all of us (all the people of the world) are created equal and deserve life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
2
“Whether by design or lucky accident, he has given himself a singular armor, a special inoculation, which is that no one expects more from him.”
Yes, Mr. Bruni, this is an advantage. But it is also a disadvantage. People want to look up to a president. I’m sure there are many who voted for him ( Reagan Democrats/ Obama Republicans?) that will either sit 2020 out or vote for the Democratic nominee. And what about the trade war? That could very easily backfire.
Finally, Bill Clinton doesn’t win in 1992 if Ross Perot is not in the race, so a third party candidate could also derail Trump’s “advantage.”
1
Let's not forget another big, possibly illegal advantage. His frequent campaign rallies subsidized by taxpayer dollars. Let's have loud, frequent calls for his campaign to reimburse government coffers for travel and security for these events. They should be treated fairly under campaign finance laws.
4
Frank - All True except one thing.
There are many who voted for Trump but are now disgusted by him. However, if given a safe choice to vote for, perhaps enough voters from critical Electoral College swing states will vote against Trump.
But the key here is what does "safe choice" mean to these voters that will make all the difference in 2020?
And based on the field as of today, I still believe that Joe Biden is our best hope for the "safe choice" voters.
And what in certain ways works for Trump also works for Joe. By this I mean that when Joe sticks to one message (Trump), he looks great. When he gets into details, he gets picked apart by his own party and friendly press which gives Fox and all others plenty of ammunition.
Joe, if you are listening, stick to one subject and one subject only ... Trump. You are good at it. It is working. When confronted with policy issues, turn the question to something Trump. When you are cornered with "gotcha on your record" questions, "malarky" them out of the way and turn to Trump.
By sticking to one consistent message ... Trump ... you can use his own formula against him.
3
You didn't mention data analysis firms like Cambridge Analytica. If you watch "The Great Hack" on Netflix you will see how Trump really won. Even though C.A. is now closed, you can bet that there are other firms like that waiting in the wings for the next election. They have data points on every voter in the US. They zero in on the "undecideds" in key states and make sure they see ads against the candidate running against their guy. In 2016 their candidate was Trump. It will be again, so it really doesn't matter who is running against him- they don't stand a chance. We need to get rid of the electoral college to have fair elections for a start.
5
All this is to say, the problem is us. We are the problem if misogyny is okay, if lies are acceptable, if fate and fear can be normalized, if we accept an election system that denies the majority, if we destroy the diversity in our democracy and seem to prefer a tyrant. If we, the people, had ever learned to love, participate in and support our democracy these problems would never have come this far.
7
Have we ever had a President that had "campaign rallies" starting right after their inauguration?
I read something the other day that said El Paso still has over $500,000 in unpaid expenses from Trump's last Hitleresque rally there. Seems to me that some enterprising journalist would start digging and find out what the costs of all those rallies total up to be - including federal, state, local costs - and see if they were billed (if a Trump supporter was in charge of billing they may not have been), whether they were paid, if so by whom, etc., etc.
Don't stop there. Make a comparison with similar expenses of any Obama "campaign rallies" in his 8 years of office. Chart out the costs, chart out the payments. Trump is notorious for stiffing contractors and subcontractors, so who would think his tactics would change?
9
In 2016 Trump voters, who weren’t his die-hard supporters, knew that the choices they made could be risky, but they felt as though they had nothing to lose, when facing options between bad and worse.
Today, they see that upholding lofty ideals like liberal values, constitutional order and free press are unaffordable luxury, and they aren’t willing to sacrifice material benefits for abstract principles.
We are living in an age of cynicism, in which voters put their narrow self-interest ahead of the common good. It’s very sad.
4
Under Trump, the reputation of the United States abroad is like that of a ship listing, holed below the water line. There’s still time to plug the leak and restore you as a beacon for lovers of freedom and democracy around the globe.
Re-elect Trump and your leadership will sink without trace.
4
Nice take on the fourth reason, Frank. But the first three are incumbency, electoral college and Russians? In your fantasies. The first three are near record stock market highs, near record unemployment lows and the fewest American combat casualties in a quarter century. Then we’ll factor in your top three.
2
In other words, there’s one standard for Democratic candidates, and a different and lower standard for Donald Trump.
But that’s old news. Democrats have been held to higher standards than Republicans for decades. I remember a cartoon from the 2000 race — lampooning a debate between Bush and Gore. The moderator asks Bush some softball question (eg, “what is your favorite color?”) then turns to Gore and asks him to explain how an electron can be both a particle and a wave.
5
His support is completely baked in - it never goes down by much, nor does ever rise by much.
1
Trump’s advantage is the only one that matters-Electoral. He will win the electoral college and lose the popular vote by an even larger number, 5-8 million, because the USA is not a democracy anymore.
More dems will come out in blue states and nothing changes. A few red state gop-ers will stay home and nothing changes. Trump & Russia will blow up the purple states with fear of immigrants, gay marriage, abortion and liberals. Game over.
Any one of the dem candidates would be an enormous improvement over trump but the deck is stacked against them, they can’t win because our elections are rigged by the electoral college.
The dems will then realize they should have impeached him while they had the chance, because after 2020, trump will really be unleashed.
6
Frank Bruni, thanks for your apology, as far as it goes. Now, if you and the rest of the media can refrain from playing up every meaningless Biden, et. al. gaffe AND giving Trump free billions in air time [all those gavel-to-gavel rally-casts; the endless repetition of every repulsive Trump insult, etc.] maybe we Americans can better fulfill the ideal of intelligent self government at the core of our democracy. And, if the Democrats are truly bent on Trump's re-election, as many of their unrealistic proposals seem to indicate, so be it.
3
At the moment, the Democrats are shooting themselves and each other in the foot, in media sponsored cluster circuses loosely called debates. Where is the DNC policy committee while this is going on?
The media is responsible for creating this president, to a substantial degree. The 24 hour news cycle, and the proliferation of media outlets has demanded more and more "commentary and analysis", just to fill the time. This has gotten to the point where it dwarfs edited news. And, since the supply of natural disasters is limited, what better topic to focus on than politics?
The american public is not getting the benefit of seeing and hearing the results of mature editorial judgement. As a result, a significant portion of the electorate can't discriminate between left bashing screed of Rush Limbaugh and his ilk, and more reasoned voices. This genie is not going back into the bottle, however.
The burden is falling to our educational system, which has produced a percentage of socially ignorant voters. This is going to take generations to fix.
A fundamental, but partial, solution to the problem would be elimination of the electoral college.
5
Well, that's because there is an IMMENSE double standard. The right's lies get magnified beyond proportion (e.g., the Swiftboating of John Kerry) and are credulously and unjustifiably entered into the public consciousness. Hillary's email offenses were, at worst, of modest importance. Elizabeth Warren's history of claiming American Indian heritage is simply unimportant except as an indictment of the American right (e.g., "Pocahontas" is an ethnic slur). If I were scrupulously comparing it to Donald Trump's offenses, it might line up with his 968th worst offense. The problem is that the left mostly cares about being honest and reasonable and the right doesn't. Republicans will beat nonsense into our skulls nonstop until they get the desired emotional response.
2
Maybe it's time to resurrect Hillary. If we're going to lose may as well lose with a candidate who can construct a cogent sentence.
This is one of the few times I disagree with Mr. Bruni.
During an election cycle the media serve to allow the strongest candidate and arguably the most qualified, to emerge. No candidates' weaknesses should be overlooked or downplayed merely to defeat the other party.
While the sheer number of the president's misstatements dilute their individual egregiousness, it is never a good strategy to say, "Yeah, well the other guy is worse."
2
Frank: I listened to Joe Biden's speech yesterday in Burlington, Iowa. And I must say here that it was a brilliant speech, rhetorically sound and powerfully delivered, one of the most forceful and eloquent speeches I have heard Joe ever deliver. Assuredly the best since his John Mc Cain eulogy. He called out Trump's hatred and demagoguery in no uncertain terms, and gave a plethora of sound reasons to get rid of him. Biden is not my top pick for the nomination, but after that speech yesterday, I certainly see him as a prime contender. The truth will out, and Joe Biden surely gave us a solid dose of the truth in his Iowa speech.
3
What about the best economy in a generation, without historic low unemployment, rising labor participation, and increasing real wages? Is this not also a political advantage?
4
@Robert...he's created millions of jobs. How do I know? I have three of them.
"Picked apare Joe Biden's closing statment"
At least Joe had something positive to say and knew something about the country and government which is more than one can say about trump. trump rumbles on calling people names, dividing the country, calling Dayton Toledo. At least he picked a city in the same county.
The 4th reason trump will win is because of the media who are tearing apart the only person who can beat trump.
2
Perhaps if the opponents of Trump offered plans that were economically feasible, politically in line with their electoral base and not driven by emotional scapegoats (AOC anyone ??) then voters would shift their loyalty. What we continue to see from the "LEFT OF CONETER" is a deeper radicalization of policy initiatives which are heavily reliant on taxation of a smaller base of people whom already pay 75% of the cost of running the country. We as a country are in a tremendous deficit already. Trying to increase the burden on taxpayers is not a strategy that sits well with "center left" or right leaning voters. There are two paths to win an election. Fiscal improvement for all of the nation. Trump has secured that fiscal improvement and put the US on par w/ the world in terms of corporate taxation. The second path to win an election resides in securing the confidence of voters that the administration has the interest of the US population in foreign affairs. Americans feel like he is fighting for them on foreign policy initiatives. Asking other countries to pair their fair share for US protections. Asking the US Congress to defend the sovereign nature of our borders and not being labeled racist in doing so are important factors in securing votes. Until the Democratic leadership finds a more civil way to approach the relations with their elected leader then they will continue to lose ground heading into 2020. Deservedly so.
4
@Brekkie4dinner
Well, if what you say is true, then why did the Hoover Admin end in a Depression rescued by FDR in 1932, Nixon's 8 years ended in the worst 73'-74 crash since the 1930's rescued by Catrer (SP 500 returns averaging over 18% for 4 years 1976-1980), Reagan ended in the 1987 crash after years of his policies running the debt to 4 Trillion, rescued by Clinton who erased the debt to zero in 2000 only to have W end in the worst financial crisis in 80 years in 2007-2008 raising the debt to $14 Trillion by 2/2009 when Obama took office, minus pulling out of IRAQ (no force agreement protecting US Troops) and the surge to restore stability in Afghan- now retreating under attack from the Taliban) and The President has soared the debt to $22 Trillion plus adding 4 Trillion in 2.5 years> widening trade deficit, China's exports are increasing and ours are decreasing, so.....20/24 years of GOP control in the Hosue and Senate and you wish to blame Democrats?
Biden has given us two glimpses of just how unable he would be to stand up to Trump on a debate state. Any of the other Democratic frontrunners could wipe the floor with Trump, especially Bernie, Warren, Harris, or Booker.
The Democrats had better wake up and smell the coffee- Biden might have had the mojo for this job 20 years ago, but on the debate stage it was crystal clear that he is just not up to the job. Trump's lies, hate, and amorality are the fabric of who he is- the MAGA crowd loves this about him. Biden's "lies" are mostly errors and lack of sharpness- possibly related to his age. I think any of the other major Democrats can ignite the passion in the youth and minority voters to win this election in spite of the Republican cheating and structural advantages.
5
Promising start to the article, then lapsed into the typical anti-Trump drumming that is losing its effectiveness.
3
That’s the entire point
In addition to your thoughts Mr. Brunei, there is this.
It not 2016 anymore. Millions of Americans who did not like the president in 2016 now say they do. Over all, his personal favorability rating has increased by about 10 percentage points among registered voters since Election Day 2016, to 44 percent from 34 percent, according to Upshot estimates.
Don’t underestimate those who love him no matter what.
8
All this attention for the Democratic Primary overlooks the big difference—that there will not be any Republican Primaries. The GOP doesn’t seem to need or want one. They’re ready to permanently install Trump in the Oval Office today.
Could someone please get this crook’s tax returns and expose them, please? Trump acts like they’re the only thing on earth that can block his path to (manipulated) victory in 2020. And if Trump is afraid of something, we the people need to see it, and use it.
3
Why would tax returns shock the unshockable?
This is a bit disingenuous. Although Trump does enjoy support throughout the country, according to Morning Consult’s latest July polling, it is not enough to win the electoral college. Morning Consult has Trump above water in only 20 states worth only 172 electoral votes. Yes, he has inordinate support in WY (3 electoral votes), Mississippi (10 ev), Alabama (9 ev), and TX (38ev), but the support does not add up to the winning 270 electoral votes. In 30 states, Trump is underwater. He won’t be coming up for air.
3
Have not you learned that polls are meaningless.
Perhaps Democrats can switch party affiliation to vote next year in their state primaries for any candidate other than the incumbent, for example William Weld of Mass. or we can draft Joe Scarborough from Morning Joe. In Maryland, the deadline is April 2020 and the last election counted around 250,000 Maryland voters for the primary- have an equal number change party affiliations and then vote for another candidate to represent the GOP (as well as local and state officials that favor gun control, women's reproductive rights, a pathway to citizenship, buy in to Medicare as a public option, environmental production, public education etc etc etc.
Excellent nuanced point but I'm going to give Americans more credit (this time) for recognizing the material differences rather than the picayune.
I'm just one example of someone who voted for him -- my first time ever voting for a Republican and for which I plead temporary insanity -- but deeply regrets it.
My one goal now is to vote him out in what I hope will be the biggest defeat in history, a fitting end although I hope it will only be the beginning of Trump's legal troubles!
8
There was a time when Trump was considered less than 50-50 to complete his first term in office on wagering sites. He is now more than 50-50 to win a second term. Polls are a snapshot in time. Wagering odds are a prediction of a future event, or at least based on the opinions of those willing to wager. If the economy doesn't tank it's likely four more years. Risking $11 to win $10 on a Trump reelection seems to be a pretty good wager.
1
I believe we wringth our hands too much. Trump's clumsiness has caused shedding of those voters who couldn't abide Clinton as either a candidate, a Clinton or as a woman. And if you think his base has solidified, that is as nothing compared to the solidarity of his opposition. I think he is on track to lose electoral states by about the same margin as he won them. He has never really gained ground. And he has another year of his disaffecting behaviour to push more voters away.
5
I don’t know who will win the Democratic primary for President. No one does.
I don’t know will win the next Presidential election. No one does.
But I do know that there is practically a score of Democratic candidates for President right now.
These are people, Democrats, who are discussing policies and ideas that will help all Americans live freer, better lives.
These are people, Democrats, who are not getting support from a hostile foreign government.
These are people, Democrats, who truly represent what America is, women and men, different sexual orientations, and different races.
But, yeah, Joe Biden misspoke a few times. Let’s all focus on that.
9
The fact is, Trump gets away with it because he is being protected, not by Russia, but by a group of wealthy, 'elite', Americans who are benefiting from his being in office. Without their endless help and support, he would (or should have) been toast, a long, long time ago. You might note that his closest cohorts and co-workers form a tight core, that never wavers, no matter what he says or does. They are as much to blame as he is. They are accomplices, plain and simple.
7
The Democrats are in a real bind. The moral imperative is at odds with the political necessity. Steve Bannon telegraphed precisely what he imagined we needed to be obsessing about come election time, in order for Trump to win: race. And what are we obsessing about? Race. Why? Because Donald Trump is making the election about race. It's literally being designed that way by his campaign. Should we abandon the moral outrage? Never. But it won't help us win the election.
4
The reference to the release of the tape of Trump speaking with Billy Bush about grabbing p was at in early October 2016, after which Trump advanced to victory. It was not inoculation that was occurring then. Other forces were at work -- including HRC acting like a queen waiting to be crowned --that bolstered Trump. Mr. Bruni's analysis is too cliched and deprecating of the public that voted for Trump despite misgivings about him personally. The Dem candidates for president are making the same error, which, if not corrected, will doom any Dem candidate as a snob out of touch with the reality that things like border security matter a lot more than a boorish presidential demeanor.
3
And the DNC is about to do again what they did in 2016: Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They will lose because the Establishment - yet again - refuses to let go and, instead, keeps foisting these marginal (at best) candidates upon us. Yes, Trump's odds are good just because of the patterns seen in the last 35 years. But, when is the last time we had a corrupt POTUS who happened to also be the puppet of a Russian leader? Sure, I agree history dictates his chances are good. But we are not dealing with a leader that has been so reviled. He has to get independents, and you're arguing that any other time, those independents will go for the incumbent. But this is not a rational or normal incumbent.
The US richly deserves TRUMP. Four more years should do it. We will then have completely disappeared from the world stage, a highly needed happening.
11
@Yuri Pelham: The US signed off the planet when Reagan revoked Metric Conversion.
The problem with America is Americans, the outdated Constitution, and a partisan Supreme Court. And it's only going to get worse when by 2040, 70 percent of the Senate will represent 28 percent of the population. How ironic that our Constitution (electoral college, vague emoluments clause, no Congressional term limits) and the Supreme Court (Citizen's United, eliminating oversight of Voting Rights Act, ignoring gerrymandering, giving the President power to control spending) are leading the way to America's rapid demise.
29
@historicalfacts: This system is only a foul structural relic of state optional slavery.
1
You mentioned George Bush not being reelected. What about Jimmy Carter? Those two men were saints (and far more qualified) compared to trump.
trump is riding on President Obama's economic coat tails. And the way he is handling this country, it isn't going to last.
21
@Janice H. He said in the 'last "35 years." Jimmy Carter, one of my two favorite presidents, the other being President Obama, served from 1976-1980, outside the 35-year window. But I agree with your assessment otherwise!
1
What happened in 2016 had everything to do with HRC being distrusted by many, uncharismatic + uninspired to many, not to do with millions passionately wanting her opponent. It wasn't so long ago that we should forget that, or that she lost by a very slim margin in a small handful of states, but some in the media seem to enjoy playing revisionist history for affect, as if it was some kind of landslide. It wasn't. A Democratic victory in 2020 is in no way a slam dunk at this point, but with the majority of the country disapproving of the current WH occupant every day since inauguration it's definitely within reach.
16
I grow weary of those who blame Hillary Clinton for having the 2016 election stolen from her by a traitor and his Russian supporters. She won three million more votes than Trump, fair and square. And as the Mueller Report makes crystal clear, Trump committed felonies and capital crimes to get “elected.”
I watched the TV coverage of the misery in El Paso and Dayton and thought, none of this would be happening if the actual winner of the 2016 election had become president, as she should have.
2
@Michael...
"What happened in 2016 had everything to do with HRC ... not to do with millions passionately wanting her opponent."
Poppycock.
Yes, HRC was not the greatest candidate. But my pet rock would've been a better candidate than Trump.
Now, let's talk reality.
- A mere 60% of the electorate turned out to vote in 2016. This was considered to be an excellent turnout - not a reflection of poor candidates.
- Despite Trump's well documented, 40+ year history of bigotry, immorality, unethical behavior, never-ending business failures, and overall sleaze, and despite the low turnout, 63 MILLION people nevertheless voted for Trump. That's very nearly the population of France (65M). It's more than the total population of all but 22 countries. It's a lot of stupid in one place.
- Despite Trump's abysmal 2-year record as president, a mere 47% turned out to vote in 2018. Again, supposedly a banner turnout for midterms.
- A few days before he was elected, Trump's approval rating was about 37%. For nearly his entire presidency, he's hovered in the low-to-mid 40s. Real Clear Politics has him at 43.6% at this writing. That represents about 115M potential voters - nearly double 2016's 63M.
Bottom line: What happened in 2016 is extreme political tribalism, voter stupidity, voter apathy, GOP voter suppression, James Comey, the Russians, the Electoral College, and THEN Clinton's failures.
2
Very pessimistic column. However, I remain hopeful that the sheer unpleasantness and undependability of the bogus POTUS will result in a tsunami vote for the Democrat. If there are still voters who remain unwilling to see the truth about him, whether it be racism or Russians or refusal to follow the law, maybe there's still a chance to reveal something that will convince them of the truth--that he is himself the primary national security threat, and a second Trump term could well mean the end of the USA as we know it (and further kinks in the global system, possibly leading to macho war games with nukes).
11
If he has such an advantage, then why is he so far down in almost every poll? Including places like Ohio. He might have a perverse protection, but not with a majority of the voters who will be voting in 2020.
12
How can Trump be convinced NOT to run for a second term? He doesn't enjoy being president, there are no qualified supporters left to appoint to his many open positions, the economy will eventually falter due to his trade wars and huge deficits, Democrats will not hesitate to impeach him if he wins a second term, and the chaos in the White House will become more and more apparent. He should run away, not run again.
8
Frank,
Your title grabbed me so I read your column and the supporting logic for your thesis that Trump is likely to win based on the new Electoral College and the likelihood that the economy will not enter a new recession.
I disagree with your thesis primarily because farmers, large and small have been harmed in the electoral college states that count and they will not forget how the President lost their market with China. So I think the agriculture sector will shift the advantage that he had in the last election which was very narrow to a clear and irreversible disadvantage.
Another factor is the weather for two more warmer-oceans-hurricane seasons before the election. Looking at the old tapes of the President's visit to N.C. with the sail boat washed up in a backyard demonstrated a particular level of Presidential ignorance and social ineptness that can't be matched by any other candidate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=24&v=SVSg-FXyiY8
Finally, I don't really think the President's performance for the next 15 month's will really matter. What will matter is recognition by the public that the President's incompetent performance was enabled by the Senate.
The Congressional majority is far more important than the Presidency and there is a good chance for shifting the majority of the Senate to join the House Democratic Majority to address the real priority problems of the country. So it is this happy thought makes me thankful for the Separation of Powers.
19
Frank, Democrats are a long way from choosing a candidate. But, the sole reason a foreign power gets involved is if it’s in their self interest to do so, and no foreign power fears retribution because we don’t care if they get involved. China has an export market at risk based on Trump policy. I’m guessing the Chinese are hard at work trying to figure out how to use Facebook to push voters to the left.
6
I'll add a fifth advantage: The negligent media.
With every column that treats the election as sport, instead of a discussion of policy agendas as they relate to the real lives of American voters, the election becomes increasingly more a spectacle than the important, life-changing democratic function that it is.
Worried about the Electoral College (rightly)? Break down the real-life stakes for a voter in Wisconsin/Ohio/Michigan. Concerned that Biden might have lost his sharpness? Pay a little more mind to one of the many alternative candidates who have demonstrated total crispness, sharpness, and depth, and who have imminently sensible policy proposals that benefit that voter in Wisconsin/Ohio/Michigan.
If you wanna call a horserace, go to ESPN. If you wanna delivery the journalism that sustains an informed democracy, then give that swing state voter something that actually makes them think about this election as it relates to their reality.
77
@RMS. Thank you....very well stated.
1
@RMS This is a mature and conscientious viewpoint on media's responsibility that, if held by journalists AND THEIR EDITORS above click chasing, could save our country.
1
With a little over 50% of the electorate voting, there are at least 40% who are available to vote against the unpatriotic republican party. All it takes is a bold plan, organization, and exposure of the lies told by the republicans. That is where impeachment investigations come in.
March, resist, register to vote, take a friend to the polling booth and sink the republican party in 2020.
22
But most importantly - talk about it. Share your passion to inspire others to be passionate, to take action. Endeavor to educate people of important issues they may not be aware of and that they need to get active in, or at least understand that they may have to accept the consequences of their inaction. I understand how frustrating, discouraging, damaging, demoralizing, depressing, alarming and infuriating politics can be in these trying times. But at least choose the lesser of two evils if you don’t like the options because not doing anything is the antithesis of exercising your freedom, gift, and responsibility of being a citizen of our democracy. It is from a place of privilege that one is able to not take action, and active involvement is absolutely necessary to maintaining a free democracy. As another reputable news agency has said, “Democracy dies in darkness”.
1
WILL SOME MEMBER OF THE PRESS INVESTIGATE and find evidence that the chants at the rallys are planned, rehearsed, and begun by people carefully planted in the midst of the "audience", very often people paid for that service. Just part of the show, but misread by the public as evidence of widespread and extensive support.
28
Trump isn’t above hiring crowds if it improves his optics. This is a man so incompetent that his “supporters” in his campaign literature were exposed as clip-art models from public domain image banks. And, of course, he got away with it.
If you have any evidence of this, by all means contact Fox. If not, I suggest you stop floating conspiracy theories such as this one.
Thanks for admitting your criticisms of Biden were "picayune". They certainly were. The ONLY thing that matters in this election is getting rid of Trump. The majority of Democrats still believe he's the person to do it. Joe Biden is a good man with faults as we all have. But he is right when he says that 4 years of Trump will be an aberration, 8 years will be disastrous. There are other fine Democratic candidates. But to beat Trump we need the widest coalition possible, and Biden is the man who can attract moderate Democrats and Republicans and yes, progressives. I hope Democrats, like you have, will stop the nitpicking and realize that Joe Biden can be a bridge to the America we once knew. Trump MUST go!
15
Jay Inslee is a successful governor who prioritizes addressing climate change. He needs and deserves public support in his campaign. It is embarrassing that Harris, Buttigieg, and Booker are getting more coverage and support.
8
Something to remember, y'all:
At this same point in his first term, Obama's approval rating was almost as bad as Trump's is now.
As I recall, Obama was re-elected.
8
The debates really are meaningless. No one will remember especially with all the numbers on stage. This election will be a referendum on Trump just as 2018 was.
I'll look forward to paper ballots, a good turnout, and hearing the news that Donald Trump, the worse president in the history of this nation, was voted out of office and faces indictment from the southern district in NY for crimes. Just keep the pressure on to get the truth out there for the public across all social levels.
13
Is there any debate how once great societies fail? When a plurality of the electorate can simply sell their souls for a supposed and disingenuous tax cut, they've lost any and all semblance of decency and credibility - the stuff of which a cynical populace is made. One more term for Trump will be the end to our vaunted democracy and shepherd in something new, different and far less united.
15
"That’s not because we in the media have stopped scrutinizing him and chronicling his errors and outrages. It’s because there are so many that they blur. It’s because they’re baked into the Trump brand. They’re part of the deal that his supporters have made. This is the Trump they bought. This is the Trump they’ll keep."
If you, your fellow op-ed writers here and in The Times as well as your political writers threw a switch and changed your mode of writing to be more critical of Trump, maybe we'll get a fairer picture of him.
Not that a lot of regular readers need it but some validation that the Washpost writers are not mailing it in would be nice.
8
@Gary Valan
I plead guilty. Iread so much Washpost and The Times that I mistook the Bruni Op-Ed for a Washpost Op-Ed. I blame wine...
There is one other advantage that the author did not mention:
The tendency of the Right Wingers to do anything, even things detrimental to the country, the environment, or the people, just to see "the heads explode" of people who lean left.
27
I'm legal immigrant. Before coming to this country 9 years ago, I was told Americans are one of the nicest people in the world, and they care about people, and treat them rightly. But what I am currently seeing is complete opposite, even I started wondering whether Trump supporters have heart. If Trump comes next time as a president, I can't handle the so much negativity everyday anymore. I would leave this country for my own good. I'm really thankful to God, I wasn't born in this country, and proud citizen of another country. Our country will never treat people like this.
17
Bon Voyage. If you desire to return to your country of origin, do so. That is the freedom you have in this country. Americans have heart, but we also have immigration laws that allow for a normal immigration process and one that was intended for exceptional admissions which the Democrats are cynically distorting while at the same time refusing to provide sufficient funds to deal with influx they have created. Politics at its worst.
I don’t know who told you Americans are nice. We are definitely not a nice group.
Regarding Nate Cohn: I am not a statistician, just a simple country algebraic combinatorist. But I still feel qualified to remind people that statistical prediction is ultimately based on measurements, and it is neither possible to measure everything nor measure with perfect accuracy those things we have the ability to measure. Always keep that in mind when you read a hand-wringing editorial on the prospects of Trump’s re-election.
8
Look for a replay of 2016, except a bigger actual vote Advantage for the Democrats. They will pile up the votes in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, etc. But the president could win again, because this also has not changed since 2016, which is that Democrats take him literally but not seriously, and his supporters take him seriously, but not literally. And if he would put his darn smartphone away, he could even win the popular vote.
3
Trump has already ignited a cold civil war in this country. One needs to ask why. He must know that alienating even a small segment of people who voted for him while energizing the opposition is a failing strategy. After all he won by the slimmest of electoral college margins in three states while losing the popular vote by nearly 3 million. So what IS his strategy for remaining in power? In 2016 he said he'd only accept the results if he won. This time around he certainly won't accept them when he loses. With uncertainty around election security and legitimacy that Trump has allowed to fester and grow, when he loses on election night 2020, he'll turn the tables and say that nobody knows who the real winner is. He'll use that as an excuse to not concede and later to not cede power. His rabid minority base, fueled by Fix and friends will buy it hook, line, and sinker and react as if the election is being stolen from them. Michael Cohen, who knows Trump's tactics as well as anyone testified to this scenario before Congress. This is his strategy. What is the opposition prepared to do to protect us from this authoritarian nightmare?
9
Doesn’t matter if unelected Trump sits in the WH...If he ain’t the President he ain’t the President...President Bullock can run the show from his SUV...
The consequence of Trump political philosophy is that Americans should close the doors toward the rest of the Planet and just enjoy living together.. but El Paso shooting shows that there is a World at our doors that we cannot ignore and the rejection of the different in any field of life and existence will finally make us unhappy, even though we could have three meals a day and an excellent material life. We are curious people and we want to discover what is going on at the rest of the Planet and to discover that there is more to love cherish out of our American World.
1
People are hyper-focused on the Biden gaffes because he is the front runner and there is nothing else to do or report on but squint at these pseudo-debates. Various people seem to have an incentive to pretend the race is close or that any of the other candidates polling above 4% could actually win.
Biden was a punching bag for the whole debate. He was probably overcome with relief that he made it through despite his own rust and the rapid-fire piling on. Poker writer Mike Caro, most famous for his book on tells, wrote about a "trembling hand" and how dangerous a player with a trembling hand is. Most people do not practice faking this, and it is a dead giveaway someone just got a card they really wanted. The trembling is, counterintuitively, a sign of the release of tension, not of being more tense. This phenomenon may explain Biden's errors in his short closing statement - the part of the debate that should have been easiest for every candidate.
Biden had a good enough night, and he must have subconsciously agreed even before he left the stage. The lower bar established for Trump will eventually be applied to Biden also.
4
In 2016, ONLY 56% of eligible voters bothered to show up. As for the other 44%; 'meh, I think I'll take a pass.' And the US is supposed to be a pillar of Democracy. Never mind all the arguments about voter suppression, gerrymandering, the electoral college, splitting the vote by third party candidates: get the turnout to 70%+ and none of the above will matter. None. It will result in a Democratic sweep. What to do, what to do........?
5
@Eric...Maybe one thing the Dems could do would be to launch a project right now encouraging all voters to make a contact with their local elections office to make sure they are properly registered and that Vlad hasn't had his hackers change their precinct without their knowledge. Perhaps a postcard to every voter with instructions on how to verify that they will be able to cast their votes come 11/20. This also might establish an early commitment to vote and an early energy about the election. Russia will help trump because trump helps Russia...and wants a Moscow property.
6
If Trump is reelected, it won't be because of the electoral college, or because he's the incumbent, and certainly not because of the Russians (any more than it was the first time). If Trump is reelected, it will be because of the American people. At some point, we need to stop pointing fingers and look in the mirror. We're the ones who are screwed up.
14
I think it was Jon Stewart who called trump a gilded sack of luncheon meat. Journalists, start your slicers.
Time to tell the objective truth each day and everyday just report, trump told 38 lies today, the same ones he always tells, so we won't list them. He screwed up another trade deal, so the Dow lost a thousand points and China will no longer buy any xxxxx from us and will no no longer sell us any yyyyy that is vital to our zzzzz industry. Or he sent 50 thousand troops to France because he thought someone there called him a name, but it was in French so he just assumed it was nasty.
OK, New York Times, tell us that is not a fair assessment of the way the news should be reported.
7
I think the main reason people will vote for Trump in 2020 is they like watching him. Nothing more than that. It’s like comfort food at this point. Even if they disagree with him about everything they like watching him. Ignore the substance and enjoy the circus.
1
This really makes me sad but is about right. He sucks all the oxygen of a room and any Dem candidate will need to deal with that. I am not sure if there is a solution and it really depresses me. *Sigh*
4
Still, if it comes to Trump vs. Biden, why bother?
There has to be a better candidate.
4
Seriously?! If it comes to Trump v Biden: Biden. Trump v Just About Anybody: Just About Anybody. It’s rhetoric like “why bother” that got us here in 2016.
@Fran, are you kidding? No difference between Trump and Biden? On the environment? On education? On human rights? On the possibility that a war will be started because someone’s feelings got hurt? #dumptrump2020
@Fran Why bother? Because you have to start somewhere. I bothered to vote for Johnson last time so the Ds and Rs would know there's at least a few people who won't vote for total garbage candidates in a mistaken fear of "wasting their vote."
I wasn't enamored with Johnson or under the illusion that he'd likely go down in history as anything other than a below-average POTUS, but a Clinton presidency would have been every bit as bad as Trump's--just in different ways.
If you tell a lie often enough and long enough to enough people, it becomes a truth. That is Trump’s play. This is why the media needs to quickly, and with all their journalistic might, crush every lie and mistaken claim he makes every day he makes them and EVERY TIME he makes them, otherwise they become truth by default.
15
@Joe Wayne...It also would help--both politically and psychologically--if the backroom TV news "producers" would stop showing trump's face and broadcasting his voice every other minute while the news is being reported. They're already doing the same thing they did in 2016 by giving trump millions of dollars worth of free publicity, while normalizing a sociopath.
While the press may have stopped paying attention, I hope (and perhaps naively believe) that the American people still care about and will take character into account in their 2020 vote.
4
And Russia is getting what benefit from Trump? Name one.
Russia is getting a huge benefit from the media. From Trump? Not so much.
2
@Stuart
Russian Benefit:
The ability to expand international influence while America loses influence and respect globally.
Trump's damage to our relationships with allies is huge. (second bene) His inability to actually run the government due to his mental instability and rashness also has benefits (undermine intelligence collection for example). Oh, gridlock is great for Russia, too. We can't even solve problems because of Trump's divisive personality. Russia's goal of getting rid of Nato is another...
How's that for a start?
13
@Stuart...Weren't the sanctions modified so McConnell could get Russian money pouring into Kentucky for an aluminum plant? Who knows what else Vlad is getting...he gets to meet with trump without witnesses, recall.
Maybe we shouldn’t be asking which nations benefit from Trump being in office, but WHO. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/27/us/politics/trump-russia-sanctions-deripaska.amp.html
The single advantage that Trump possesses is the media and a significant section of the public’s willingness to throw around the “racist” card. There are most definitely racists in his administration, most visibly himself.
However, Americans are tired of hearing that every instance of unequal treatment is the product of racism. Most Americans are even tempered, tolerant of differences. However, there is a strong current within Trump’s public that is offended that every act not supporting government-imposed equality is that of a racist.
It would be nice to see the re-introduction of the word “prejudice,” and an acknowledgment that we have made some progress on racial issues over the decades.
3
Mr. Bruni, your thesis might hold some water if Joe Biden were actually the Democratic candidate for president. He isn't. Please remember that. We have a long way to go.
4
Everybody who has more than a 10th grade education in US Government or Civics knows that only the voters in 5 or 6 states choose the President. If you're a voter in PA, OH, MI, WI or NC (maybe FL) your vote truly matters - if the Dems cannot get this right, then nothing else matters.
Only 80,000 votes in these states turned the election in 2016 - and it just may happen again given the ridiculous performances of the top candidates in the first 2 debates.
Forget free college tuition, forget open access to all who want to cross our borders, forget free healthcare for all, forget identity politics. These topics simply do not resonate with the voters in these states.
Think "Its the economy Stupid" all over again. Its good-paying Jobs, it the cost of having and maintaining a family, its cost of healthcare (premiums, deductibles, out of pocket). Voters vote their pocketbooks and for whomever can show them a believable pathway to a better future.
8
I will never understand why so many Trump supporters view his modus operendi based on attacking and destroying perceived enemies is a strength. To me true strength is based on the ability to bring people together and the ability to look full on at the truth. I guess I am just old fashioned and naive, and perhaps Trump's lies and obfuscations are just the new norm.
4
One advantage the Russians won't have this time is we know they're coming. Moderates have seen Trump. Most know about Russian trolls and fake propaganda, and are turned off by the nonstop lying, racism, demagoguery. You can write off those that are glued to FoxNews 24/7, but the rest have seen this movie and I believe most don't want to see it again. The electorate will be energized like no other.
3
I agree. When Trump supporters say they find him honest, I can only think it means they think his lies, his refusing to admit mistakes, and his racism are true to character. He’s honestly racist and not afraid to show it.
3
I have an idea. Let's elect a real president to run the country, day to day. He can be smart, principled and effective, but probably boring, so we won't want to pay much attention to him, except in national emergencies.
Then, let's keep Trump as the entertaining media clown play-like president. He can do his ridiculous tweets, insult other world leaders, tell lies and keep us all clicking on the newspaper articles. He can infuriate and alarm Democrats and Republicans alike. But he won't really have his finger on the red button, thank god.
Would this work?
5
@Madeline Conant - With Mitch McConnell as éminence grise fronting GOP regime on behalf of a coterie of Koch-affiliated billionaires, this policy of POTUS as entertaining sock puppet is already operant.
1
Mr. Bruni, what lessons are we loyal Democrats to learn from your carefully stated observations? (Nice op-ed, Frank!)
Are we to ignore gaffs and missteps made by those seeking the Democratic presidential nomination?
Should we, in the hope of winning the 2020 election, agree to accept whatever the nominee promises? Or perhaps, assure him/her, in advance, that we won’t squawk, even if no campaign promises are kept?
It seems you’re saying that Mr. Trump’s strengths are:
- That his supporters are resolved to expect nearly nothing from him, and they are prepared to accept even less.
- That there is no failure, no embarrassment, no stupidity which his followers won’t deny, excuse or forgive.
- That there is power, real power, in having loyal followers who can watch their president regularly stick his foot in his mouth, up to the knee, without flinching. Without even noticing.
Mr. Bruni, the Republican/Trump strengths which you describe are neither desirable nor feasible. The Republican party’s “hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil” treatment of their unfit president, holds no charms for those of us on the left.
Speaking for myself, I would prefer to lose with sanity and reason, than to win as part of a mindless herd, a herd forced to carry the burdens of hatred, racism and the destruction of our democracy along with it, on their shameful path to victory.
4
My theory goes beyond Mr. Bruni's assessment that his supporters disregard Trump's horribleness. My theory is that Trump's awfulness has actual value by confirming his supporters' sense of racial superiority: if such a low-down guy can become president just by being *white*, then certainly mediocre white guys like *me* have a bright future. And the lower-down he is, the brighter my future.
How does a candidate running on being excellent compete against a candidate running on being awful?
3
It does seem that Trump has an outrageous 2020 advantage. After all Barr has taken the lead on the Mueller Report effectively neutering it. Each night enablers on FOX spew forth a convoluted tale of a "reality" based on fear and lies. Yet the question arises did the horrific events of last weekend begin the start of Trump losing that advantage? Many did realize before last Saturday that Trump was a demented racist. Something though seems to have changed . Now the link between Trump's racism expressed in words are being directly linked to the actions of some very sick individuals. Trump & racism, racist intents are now forever linked. Within the fevered Trump supporters there will be those that will cling to him no matter what. It is with the other 60 % that the anger and disgust with Trump is being ginned up. That anger & disgust may be the overwhelming tidal wave that sweeps Trump out of office.
If that is the case we better not start partying. The damage left behind will take a long time to correct if it can be . The poison of white nationalism will still be present. WNs will not go gently into the "good night". They would have had their moment in the sun thanks to Trump. I doubt that they are going to accept that Trump lost the WH. Also what of the Senate. Will the devil's right hand man McConnell still be there ? The fight of the soul of our nation began with Trump
it will not end in 2020. We have an advantage -vote to throw him & his ilk out of office.
2
Frank, How you and your colleagues still find the words to stand up for freedom, truth and democracy is beyond me. I’m spent. I’m so tired. Maybe going forward with the campaign I will find some energy. Trump is just so sickening, nauseating. There are no more ways for me to describe his odorous behavior. How on earth do you find the energy to keep writing? God bless you. The thought of four more years of Trump makes me want to find a cave somewhere. If that’s the case, do you or anybody care to join?
3
Mr. Bruni describes manifestations on the spectrum of cognitive decline. Trump is without a doubt farther along than Joe, and neither has self awareness which is typical of the condition. Neither should be running the USA which illustrates the flaws in our faux democracy (one person = one equal vote) and a real democracy for that matter. Does anybody else find it ironic that a commercial pilot cannot be over 65 years of age, but the president can be much older? Almost as ironic as Trump labeling Joe as dumb? Perhaps, to run for president, a normal PET CT scan of the brain should be required along with release of 10 years of taxes.
4
Trump operates in his own reality, where lies pass for truth, mockery passes for commentary, and where gross irresponsibility passes for governance. How can any Democrat compete against someone who doesn’t play by the rules?
3
NH.. there is your logic fault. Who’s rules are you talking about? This is not a sport.
Trump's biggest advantage is he's figured out the wisdom of the American voter. That's an old cliche you don't hear much about anymore.
1
So, I don’t get it. What’s the outrageous advantage? Is this column title designed to compel a click and then offer nothing in the way of substance?
How about his 10 point deficit in approval / disapproval?
Enough people have seen that he’s a fraud to change the result in Michigan and PA, probably Wisc. Last time I fall for that Frank.
RTH
Ugh. I’m afraid you’re right. Let’s hope we’re both wrong.
Gaffes, crassness and fiction are part of the act. President Trump is a master showman like PT Barnum was. This is what makes him attractive to his audience. No-one likes people that are too perfect. In Donald Trump they see elements of their own lives but larger.
The American people do not want intellectual claptrap, they want to see freaks and marvels at the fair. “No-one ever went bust underestimating the taste of the American public.”
My money is still on Trump winning in 2020. His is the most entertaining presidency I have ever witnessed. He is a phenomenon.
2
Elizabeth Warren on the other hand displays none of the faults of either DJT or JRB.
5
Dems don't seem to understand that cons don't really vote all that much in in the mid-terms but do heavily in the Presidential elections. The Dems are going to be utterly destroyed next year losing the Presidency and Congress entirely. And they only have themselves to blame for going to war with the silent majority. At which point they'll fall back to even more rancor and trying to divide America all while continuing to eat their own as they always do. Keep it up with the diversity politics, it's really working for you guys. LOL!
3
I strongly believe if Biden is the nominee Trump will win and win big. If Warren is the nominee she'll win based on ideas. Biden has no plans except he's not trump. Also, his face looks so strange with all the botox and facelift. Trump's going to bring that up over and over again.
3
Even if Trump loses, his legacy will amplify the discord. The impact of his political intoxication will hit with delay. Any serious government after Trump has to deal with the fallout of his crude mismanagement. Any moderate democratic president will spend most of his time mopping up the carnage of the republicans. Like Obama did with the financial crisis he inherited from the lesser Bush.
Trump has pushed the bounderies, that's all the old white robber barons needed. Now Trump is dispensable, he has no friends or allies in washington.
No matter what the next president will do, the president after that will be a populist again, and he will carry on with turning america into a fascist nation.
Quite accurate.
But, here's a key part of this that Bruni leaves unsaid. Many "gaffes" are not substantive but are byproducts of a sorely degraded media environment. Voters know this, and across the political spectrum, they hate it.
Part of Trump's appeal is the delirious rejection of our absurd media environment. I say delirious because, in this respect, Trump is a drug.
So it's not quite right to say that voters see all of Trump's fumbling and lying as 'part of the deal.' 'The fact that he confounds all media criticism gives many voters a "high." Even when they (we) know he deserves the heat, they (we) all remember 1000 times when a leader with some semblance of integrity did not.
He truly is the middle-finger candidate.
2
I think you owe Biden an apology. You are not his high school English teacher, nor his debate coach. Please focus on his ideas and those in his past that he has put into play. All of us make mistakes when speaking in public, even you, Frank. When speaking, we don't have the delete key to correct our errors before they go to print, nor do we have professional editors, like you do, whose job it is to correct mistakes before people see them. Once something is said, it is done. Stop reporting on the accidental errors made by the candidates. That's not your job as a reporter or editorialist. Please remember that.
3
@Mike
Biden has "ideas"?
What an utterly "baked" article! Trump's behavior-the outrages he repeatedly gets away with are due soley to a craven Republican majority that has consistently, and without any sense of shame, aided and abetted him (out of fear or what???!!). And unfortuneately, the "system" of checks and balances never contemplated that such a nightmare scenario would be carried out by supposedly "honorable" elected officials! Frank, you should wait 24 hours after you write one these things, and then see how it looks the next morning...
1
It Trump wins with a minority popular vote, there will be a Civil War. The majority of voters against the minority that got Trump elected. Just hope that the military stays loyal to the constitution and not to El Presidente. A Trump win in 2020 is the end of the United States.
5
"Speaking in Charleston, S.C., at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church, where a white supremacist gunman killed nine black worshipers in 2015, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey also blamed Mr. Trump for encouraging hatred."
Alright Mr.Booker. But 2015 Mr. Trump was sitting in his Tower or his winery just thinking about running - later.
"In Iowa, Mr. Biden acknowledged that American history was no “fairytale.” “I wish I could say that this all began with Donald Trump and will end with him,” he said. “But it didn’t and I won’t.”"
Apparently Mr. Biden is much smarter than Mr. Booker, even reagarding the fact that Mr. Biden is a "white old man" - another word for an evil person nowadays. But he is 78, he behaving like this, he has made mistakes as anyone in this age is supposed to be - may be some more - and he has not, this is the crucial part, full support of all wings of Democratic party to put it mildly.
When it comes to the future I fully agree to you Mr. Bruni.
There are 20 dwarves without Snow White in a party that doesn´t exist in fact. Most of them are still clinging to the narrative of "white supremacy" that does definitely not fit to Dayton at all and to the latest 3 mass shootings before El Paso (Gilroy, Virginia Beach, Highlands Ranch). Arguing reasonably in this situation seems not ot be one of the core competencies of most of the candidates - and not of too many voters also.
So we all have to suffer what is going to happen in 2020.
1
I always expect more from Trump but what I get is a bounty of the double-talk; GOP platitudes; excuses; and lies. So now I am reduced to cringing at the thought of another 18 months of the presidential charlatan.
1
Democrats have a lot to worry about. Hopefuls like Tom Steyer running as third-party candidates will not help them, either.
1
Reexamine recent history...Jimmy Carter was another incumbent president not reelected to a second term.
3
@Michael F Reexamine the opinion piece. President Carter's one-term didn't fall within the 35-year window Bruni references.
There was 9/11 & 11/9. Trump time has warped consciousness. The real wall is the smokescreen of babbling lies & exaggerations. The fact that the media has reported & reported this man's every utterance & action substantiates Trump s notion of "fake news." The familiarity of this deception, fraud, virulence, mendacity & menace feeds into the myth that journalism is all phoney. The understudy to this flim flam man is the real danger: Pence. After Trump the "anyone has to better than this guy" notion kicks in. The recent Times Square melee of a backfiring motorcycle being mistaken for gun fire is the overture to a very unpleasant, deadly symphony to follow. The USA has bowed to anti-intellectualism mistaking Attila the Hun for Will Rogers.
2
Trump possesses Reagan's Teflon quality: nothing sticks. His true believers willfully suspend disbelief and they will not only tolerate his egregious flaws, they revel in many of them, the nastier and meaner the better. And it's all down to fear. We live in very parlous times, with inequality and job insecurity sharply up, resource scarcity abounding, and the dread of the certainty of devastating climate crisis looming on our horizon if not already on our doorstep in many places. And like Reagan, Trump is a masterful fearmongering carny barker and con man. Fearful people gravitate to an illusion of strength, particularly if it's personally aggressive and violent. And he's got enough of the country well-conned. "What's the Matter with Kansas?" became "What's the Matter with the United States?"
4
You put your finger right on it, Mr. Bruni: Trump is held to one, or mostly no standard and the Dem is placed under a political electron microscope. Just ask Hilary Clinton.
2
There is another advantage Trump has: a staunchly left-leaning media which is committed to constant criticism of his administration, even calling him a white nationalist after his last speech. Why is this an advantage? Because he is inoculated against criticism by falling back on a chant of fake news which his supporters embrace. When it is impossible to read a single positive thing about the president or his policies for months on end the notion of extreme bias is self-evident and newspapers have become weaponized as propaganda outlets. His supporters rely on Fox News and recent gaffes by even thIs paper do not help matters. Where can one go to find balanced and fair reporting?
4
How about taking a moment to create some disqualifiers for future presidential candidates for the good of our children and grandchildren. Anyone who spews racism, name-calls opponents, and makes derogatory statements about women and non-whites should top the list of disqualifiers. Given these disqualifiers, he should have been removed from the debate panel if not removed from the election ballot in 2016. What a disgrace for the country and for our future generation to look up to. Now we have to be the ones to remove him; why not the flawed system that permits such flawed candidates?
There was an election in 2018, and he lost quite big. Not saying that it means all that much, but if you have an economy that is starting to slow down and a trade war with China that continues.... I would not sleep well if i was him. My surprise predictionis that Texas will turn (temporarily) blue and then the rust belt won't matter ( even though i would bet my left arm that Michigan and Penn returns blue)
1
Democrats (hey Tom Steyer), should be running a right wing third party candidate. The best thing we need now, a Jill Stein/Ralph Nader to the right of Trump.
It’s the only thing that really can swing the electoral college map.
1
In most states, Democrats have to win up to 60% of the vote in order to get a little less than 50% of the seats. This is why we should hand over our state governments to the Democrats, and let them amend the local rules (gerrymandering, and voter suppression) that favor the election of Republicans, so we won't devolve into a one-party dictatorship, like Russia. Or, maybe you red states would like to be Russia? Well, we're heading in that direction, while you foolishly worry about Social Democracy, which we already have in our public schools, the military, fire departments, police departments, roads, bridges, and stuff like your mom's Medicare and Social Security. Republicans want to privatize all those things, so YOU will have to personally pay for each one of those, but won't be able to afford any of it. tRump's cronies will be running everything you use daily, for their own profit, and you will become poorer, less comfortable, less healthy, and less financially secure. You will probably have a shortened life, as well. Wow, that Social Democracy is really dangerous, eh?
7
The only thing to do is vote him out, overwhelmingly.
2
Our Democratic party is not offering us, much less the swing states, good options. We can't rely on the chance that the guy in the White House might do himself in. Perhaps us, too, for example, if his art of the "deal" leads us into a recession! So back to the Democrats: forget about this crazy guy! There's more than this guy's mess to clean up! Tell us, concretely, what you're going to do. Ignoring him might sap his perverse appeal.
3
Trump hasn't yet wrecked the economy . . . but he's working on it!
1
Biggest leg up is AOC as long as she keeps going on with all the nonsense that doesn’t concern the majority of voters. Maybe consider winning first then trying out a progressive agenda.
4
The fact that foreign interference is an electoral strategy leads me to believe America needs a full blown revolution. American citizens no longer get to participate in the formation of laws which govern them. This implies Americans are enslaved under a foreign and domestic oligarchy. What a terrible enslavement it is indeed, because it’s enslavement by the world’s cruel heartless rich.
1
In addition to the advantages Frank enumerates, there's also the grab bag of dirty tricks:
random "purges" of voters...only in Democratic or black districts
dysfunction and long lines at the polls...once again...only in Democratic or black districts
the black hole of private contractors who "oversee" elections
Cheating can be very effective...it's also necessary when you tell more than 1/3 of voters to go back to their ____hole countries.
2
Bravo Frank. I think that you've nailed it.
The Democrats need to get organized fast. Joe Biden is not the right candidate. Someone with a national profile needs to step forward. Michael Bloomberg? Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is a very real possibility right now. Forget the scary socialist agenda and focus on leadership and integrity.
1
Huh, double-standard you say? Ask any woman what it takes to overcome that. Why do you think multi-tasking was invented?
BTW where is an megalomaniac’s Achilles heel?
The main “leg up” Donnie has is the Dem’s extremely progressive arm. They are not drawing the conservative faction out to vote because of their radical ideas. Free college? Free healthcare for aliens? Forgiveness of college debt?
Time to wake up and smell the coffee. Stop pushing unicorns on us all!
2
I trust that enough Americans will have enough of Trump and vote him out in 2020. If not, it would be that enough Americans would rather get their monthly bigoted tweet from him than their Social Security check. America has always been a racist country, genocide of natives, slavery, racial inequality in voting, housing, employment, judicial system and healthcare. Racism persists today, and the Republicans and Trump uses it’s existence to get elected.
1
Jimmy Carter and Ford had only one term...
2
To paraphrase another saying, "One lie is terrible. Ten thousand lies is a statistic."
1
Another advantage Trump has is that the Russian investigation has turned out to be laughable. Meuller was as muddle-headed as Biden. MSNBC and CNN now look like fake news! Also, calling Trump a racist and implying that people who support him are also racists is a 'loser' move. If the Democrats want to win grant Gabbard, Buttigieg, or Sanders a chance, a ticket with any of those three will give Trump and Pence real difficulties. Trump would brush Biden, Harris, Booker, and Warren aside. After seeing Gabbard tear down Ryan and Harris and eviscerating a few journalists gave me hope. She is far smarter and more robust than I thought.
1
History and literature are filled with countries that have chosen leaders who are offensive but effective and/or charismatic. People only remove these leaders when the house of cards the leaders have created falls apart.
Frank, Frederick Jackson Turner, in his 1899, “The Significance of the Frontier in American History", stated the unique characteristics of Americans are: Egalitarian, Self-Reliant, and Pragmatic. (You’ll still find these nakedly in abundance out here in the West.)
However, when practiced together, a key part of the American uniqueness, (way of life), becomes what Voltaire said: “Never let the perfect get in the way of the perfectly good.”
Is Joe Biden perfect? No. Perfectly good enough in this situation. Yes, if that’s what it takes to get enough Americans to trounce Trump in the voting booths.
Recall, the Democratic success in retaking the House of Representatives was due to the moderate candidates. They were perfectly good enough.
Donald Trump is not. Are we re-building our pragmatic democracy or starting a Democratic purity religion?
A pragmatic democracy has strong unions. They are the force that thwarts the money buying off Congress by saying, “You may have the money but we, who represent the people who work, have the votes.” Joe Biden once had credibility with unions. Warren probably does, too.
It’s not rocket science. Yes, be egalitarian, but also be pragmatic, self-reliant, and perfectly good enough.
5
@Liam Jumper
"A pragmatic democracy has strong unions."
The Democratic Party turned its back on unions many years ago. Fighting for unions turns off the big dollar donors.
2
The problem is conservative media which creates a monolithic fantasy land which ignores contrary facts and freely invents its own facts when needed to bolster its ideology. In this bizarre world, whites are the victims of discrimination, the founders created a christian nation, Obama was born in Africa and Donald Trump is an honest man who loves America.
The democrats have nothing like it. In the normal media, pundits like Mr. Bruni will criticize any democrat in order to appear "balanced." Newspapers like the New York Times simply repeat Trump's platitudes in their headlines (even when they later have to retract them).
Trump and the worst elements of the republican party are not going to go away until something is done about conservative media. It is the elephant in the living room and the thing that is holding up the entire right-wing world of Trump.
1
We've still got more than a year to go. The mass shootings and Trump's wispy response are important. Trump's weird and very frequent lies to his supporters are probably just some type of loyalty litmus test, i.e. how much can he get away with in front of these suckers. Apparently quite a bit. Farmers and small businesses are loosing to Trump's self-imposed trade war and no one cares. Nationalists with guns are massacring people on a weekly basis. Our environmental protections are disappearing and with them, clean water and air. The healthcare system is failing to ensure people have basic care unless they are very well off. I still have to think Trump will do himself in before the next election. He'll choke when the pressure becomes too great, he always has, it's his business pattern. If we start impeachment proceedings now, we can easily catch the next round of cheating - it's there. For people like him, it always is. He just can't help himself.
3
"None of the Democratic candidates enjoy this perverse protection because none of them sought it. None wagered that the road to the White House was paved with gratuitous offense, a disregard for pesky facts and the determination never to say you’re sorry. Trump made that bet, which few observers thought was a wise or winning one.
And he prevailed. Now he reaps the rewards."
Be careful what you wish for. Just like the Japanese were so sure that prior to launching the attack on Pearl Harbor that the "soft" Americans with no will to fight would cave and cut a deal. A Japanese admiral was rumored to have said that Japan may awakened a sleeping giant. He, or whomever. was right.
Trump may feel like, and act like Mussolini at his rallies however his base is shrinking not expanding. That's not enough to lose? Well he is giving a whole lot of people who were on the fence or stayed home in 2016 to show up in 2020. I'm going to bet on the sleeping giant.
3
You forgot Carter. He also did not win a second term.
Thanks for making me even more depressed.
1
Some Trump disadvantages:
*No Chinese trade deal
*No wall
*No repeal and replacement of Obamacare
*No infrastructure
*No Hillary Clinton
*Record low approval ratings for a first term President when the economy is growing and unemployment is low
*First President in living memory with below 50% approval ratings throughout his first term
*Approval Ratings that haven't gone above his popular vote percentage (46%)
*2018 losses in districts and states he won in 2016
*Black voting levels that will rival 1964 if not 2012
*Low morale in the farm belt due to tariffs (doesn't mean votes for Democrats, may mean lower turnout)
*And:
Trump has called a question that hasn't been called since 1964. Who are we? The last time the question was called, by Barry Goldwater, LBJ got 61% of the vote and between '64 and '67 we got the Civil Rights, Voting Rights and Fair Housing Acts.
Who are we?
5
"We need a Democratic candidate that can go toe-to-toe with an outrageous no-holds-barred unethical, et al., incumbent."
To win you need a Candidate voter prefer to Trump.
In Trump, behold the power of being a wealthy, white, American male.
With impunity, incompetent, bigoted, ignorant, lurid, dangerous rhetoric and behavior is engaged in by Trump.
His business deals won't bear close scrutiny and you'd think an actual, show-off billionaire like Trump would eagerly disclose his taxes, just to prove that he is one, and yet, he doesn't. Gee, I wonder why.
Yes, a Democratic male or female candidate would be held to a different and elevated standard, which is, if I think about it, a back-handed compliment to the Democrats; it's assumed we'll behave with some modicum of competency and woe to us from the Republicans if we don't.
I shudder to think, however, how quickly and ruthlessly Obama would have been impeached during his 1st term if he had engaged in one iota of the bad behavior that Trump has.
It's all true and correct what Bruni sets forth here, but the obvious must be pointed out, too.
That is that wealthy, white, male privilege is alive and well and its embodiment sits at the desk of the WH Oval Office.
2
Yes, his advantage is that his supporters are okay with a double standard, but that's why they're his supporters. The rest of the country who are not hypocrites, are almost by definition not Trump supporters either. His advantage is that almost every single Republican sticks together no matter what he says or does. They don't criticize him, and they just say "fake news" to evidence that doesn't support him. So you can't even have an argument with these people when they won't even acknowledge basic facts...
Jimmy Carter sought re-election and was destroyed by Ronald Reagan.
1
@GUSTAV
And it has been all downhill ever since.
1
I discovered when I first came to Arkanas that a lot of the voters actually voted against their own best interests.. I've still not figures out why but it is kind of disconcerting. But good luck to who ever can run against Trump and beat his nasty attitude be they Democrats or anyother non Republicrat.
@mcfi1942
Many people will vote against their interests when you convince them that there is a class of people below them... and you're going to make sure it stays that way.
Somehow that is more powerful than financial self-interest. They console themselves that even though they're worse off, "those people" are still worse off than they are. Besides, it's all the fault of the liberals that they're worse off anyway.
Frank, the campaign apparatus will be watching the Electoral College numbers like hawks this cycle, as opposed to turning the other cheek in 2016. Turns out, his base is white supremacists. If the base extends beyond white supremacists, I want to know all about it. I'm not reading anything that points beyond the base white supremacists. I'm reading some Wall Street support comments like Jaime Dimon and his ilk who support the tax policies. We're just beginning the primary process! When white males and urban women get behind the protest vote, I want to know. So far, I'm not seeing anything that looks like that one bit. America, we can do better than this.
1
..because it requires only 15% of the electorate to win an election, and Trump figured out that calculus. As you know, Frank, 15% of the population hate you for being gay, and they always will. 15% of the population are deplorable bigots and they always will be. 15% of the population are nationalists or supremacists, white or otherwise. 15 % of the population are religious bigots, or intransigent atheists with a monopoly on truth. The problem is those are all exploitable statistics if one can "divide and conquer'". The only way to overcome the shameful politics created by wealth disparity and polarization is to expand the middle and find common cause. Let's hope it doesn't take a catastrophe or disaster, though history tells us that is what is required for our primate brains to actually care about each other.
Russians are voting for Biden.
They’re influence peddling while we sleep.
Biden is not a winnable candidate.
Elizabeth Warren would destroy him in a debate and destroy his public persona. We just need to make sure she is the candidate facing him.
1
Totally agree... HRC 2.0 big money backed candidate with tons of baggage and even worse debating skills... may have been great once, but now is not his time. Stand back DNC and let the people speak, unlike in 2016.
Call me a Pollyanna, but I’m confident we’ll vote out donald. He’s so blatantly despicable that if we all work hard to get every democrat to vote, we’ll succeed. We must not be complacent.
P.S. It’s equally important to vote out McConnell.
3
@Andrea R
you have it figured out:and since he is so despicable we dont even have to work hard,
voters will just vote him out:very simple!
It seems trumps greatest advantage is that New York Times columnists and every pundit on tv is talking about Biden like he’s already the nominee! Who cares if people are picking him apart. They should! Because he’s a terrible centrist candidate. He’s Hillary in a suit and tie. And we saw how that went in 2016... we need real inspirational change! Bernie/Warren 2020!
2
I suppose you could divide America into Fox News America and New York Times America. For those in Fox News America Trump could lie and make gaffes every minute and it wouldn't matter. For those in New York Times America every utterance by Joe Biden is carefully inspected for flaws. You could stay in Fox News America the bar for Trump is set so low it is on the ground and in New York Times America the bar is set so high that Joe Biden fails to meet it time again. Actually the Democrats seem to have a slew of candidates for whom the bar is not too high but few seem to care about these candidates. Democrats just seem to want Biden regardless of his many flaws.
2
Outrage? You're right; that's largely gone. There's nothing else as shocking as what's already happened. It's not that people are dull to it. It's more like the deep, undying loathing that comes from living with an abusive, brutal, poisonous personality.
The turnouts that swept and kept Obama in office were the result of hope and respect, even love, for him and for what he represented. It seems that the next election may be determined by turnout based upon the opposite of those emotions.
I remain in a state of disbelief that such narcissistic human being who has told over 10,000 lies as President has any credibility with anyone, and yet he does. I spent some time on the Trump Facebook page, and I was apalled at the exaggerated praise this man receives from members of his party. His web postings consist mostly of self congratulatory statements about his great trade war with China or his role as a "uniter". No wonder Democrats are frightened and in disarray -- how does one fight this mass delusion?
Journalists should take note and do several things:
1. Show how inferior Trump's policies are. Deficits are up 40% over a decade, 2 million more are without health insurance and Trump tried to take it away from 20 million, job creation is slower in Trump's first 30 months than Obama's last 30 months, stock market up more at this point in Obama's Presidency than Trump's, tariffs are hurting the middle class, etc.
2. Stop acting like a minor gaffe from a Democrat is a big deal, because Trump's are so much bigger.
3. Take Americans (not just Trump) to task for being OK with "Making America White Again" policies. Racists must be confronted and reminded what they are, and that their racism is neither warranted nor Christian.
2
Never has the presidential bar been set so low while still moving . . . downhill and nearer to the cliff . . . at an accelerated pace.
1
Thanks Frank for copping to what has been so frustrating to watch over the last 3 yrs. The press' turning a virtual blind eye to the absolutely ludicrous phenomenon that is Trump.
For most of his supporters/those who voted for him, it doesn't matter what he says or does or even how much his policies hurt them personally. But, Fox (aka GOP TV) notwithstanding, the ratings driven news media too often promotes the horse race. Trying to project a 'balanced' journalistic viewpoint, not in a Walter Cronkite, 'just the facts ma'am', type of old time journalism but in a manner that tries not to put off those who think any source other than Fox is 'liberal' and therefore fake, kind of way.
By all means you should do straight reporting and when offering opinion, put the "Editorial" graphic at the bottom of the screen the way they used to so no one gets confused if they are listening to fact vs. opinion. But don't bend over backwards to always give him the benefit of the doubt. It turns those of us who see it as 'info-tainment' off. I personally stopped watching ALL tv 'news' sources even those that might confirm my own biases. Reading gives one a larger picture and factors out a lot of the subtle visual communication messaging (flags waving in the background, leggy female talking heads in short skirts and stilettos) that might subliminally distract the info consumer.
We have endured many yrs of minority rule in this country thanks to the electoral college/scotus. Don't help him out.
1
He also most likely has a motivation unique to incumbents:
A second term or prison.
Trump's MAGA base is bought.
Trump's Aryan Nation is paid for.
The keys to winning the 2020 Presidential election are arguably in the hands 80,000 votes of Independent voters and Democrats who voted for Trump in 2016 in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. If we, the Democrats, can't convince suburban college-educated men and women that the urgency of saving our Democracy depends on their vote, then this nation deserves to be destroyed by 4 more years of Donald Trump's hate, ignorance and immorality.
1
The situation is not unlike the asymmetrical standards and measuring scale Hillary face against Trump.
Prediction: Donald will never make it to election day 2020.
His health, both mental and physical, is in a rapid state of decline.
5
Frank, don’t underestimate the disgust the majority of feel towards Trump. Not only about his racists rants, but his crimes against humanity at the borders! I suspect that many of his supporters are quietly disgusted also.
We, Democrats, flipped forty ...repeat FORTY Republican seats to take the House of Representatives in 2018! This victory was a strong , decisive rebuke against Trump! The voter turn out was the largest ever for a Midterm Election! Don’t underestimate the power of getting the vote out!
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed it is the only thing that ever has.” - Margaret Mead
2
There are other nominees besides Biden.
2
Someone I used to be associated with, told me recently he voted for Trump even admitting he might have been wrong. I can't imagine what got into his head! Is this the best that he could do Perhaps he did that because of a case of hardening of the arteries!
I'd have thought his wife might have straightened him out!
Trump may well be the new normal, the new low. This is what it must have felt like as the Roman empire slid into decline. The Romans had lead in their pipes; we've got smartphones and social media.
I think Bruni is avoiding the elephant in the room by phrasing things this way.
Trump shows many clinical signs of dementia. And not early dementia, either.
Biden shows some signs of early dementia, or at least being a bit scattered -- the campaign trail is exhausting, and he may just be too old for it.
I don't see this as a Trump advantage or a media problem. The reality is that both these men (and particularly Trump) may simply be too old for the job. And it's not going to get better.
8
If you draw any conclusions from the democratic debates, you are out of touch with reality. This is a first round of candidates waiting to be interviewed. Most of them will not pass the test. And what they say and do is meaningless. Just watch and feel the anger about Trump and his policies all around. It is not only people with PhDs; I am talking about ordinary people. People are ashamed of their country and themselves that they have someone like Trump as their president. Yes, he has his base. That is 35% of the white population. He can't win with that vote. If this is a fair election (which it might not be) Trump is going to be history.
3
Yes, older people tend to confuse cities, idioms, and allow their speaking volume to trail off so much at the end of a statement so much it affects their intelligibility.
No argument on those things.
I do find Frank much more readable when neither he nor the chosen photo lapse into propagadizing the reader, so this is a cogent article.
The next truth I expected to hear from anyone working here is how Google has been proven to ALTER search results with the confidence that as many as 80% of independents trusting Google can be expected to vote for the Democrat instead of a Republican or non-progessive candidate.
The 3 million Hillary votes mentioned here multiple times a week can be explained in whole on Google's interference with the election process.
Progressives, what's to stop someone from paying off Google engineers to tilt the NEXT election to Trump, Palin, or .... Me?
1
Mr. Bruni says Trump’s fourth advantage consists of a special armor consisting of exceedingly low expectations. True enough, for his supporters, but why should this be true of the media? No, I think Trump’s fourth advantage with the media is they seek to profit from the daily lies, outrage and corruption. Especially considering Mr. Bruni offers a lame excuse for the media of one lie or outrage blurring into the other, implying cognitive deficiencies of journalists, not special armor, is somehow nd unconvincingly Trump’s fourth advantage. We escape this muddled position by realizing uncritical responsible journalism is Trump’s real fourth electoral advantage. Trump’s lies and corruption should be called out; or, the lies ignored. That would be responsible. But it wouldn’t help sales the way reporting every Trump inanity has during these past several years.
Biden is the weakest of the four most likely candidates if he goes up against Trump. He would in my estimation almost certainly lose. Don't feel bad for accurately reporting his actions and speech.
1
A good economy and no war makes the incumbent tough to beat. Biden would seem to be the best candidate to win the swing states but Trump was correct saying he’s lost his fastball. Hope another “moderate” Democrat can step up. Maybe Hickenlooper?
@ homeless people languish on the streets; opiates poison generations; tariffs destroy agriculture (not agribusiness); trillion dollar deficits mount in a stupid trade war; soldiers deploy for Afghanistan and Iraq; support for dictators and thugs who carve up a journalist with impunity; weapons torture civilians in Yemen, and unrestrained gun violence here at home. Strong economy and no war? Really?
1
Trump is the result of a severe distortion of our electoral system. Billionaires on the far right such helped to finance the deconstruction of fair elections by supporting gerrymandering and voter suppression at the state level. As if that were not enough the GOP has also worked hard to gut the Voting Rights Act with significant support from Supreme Court. This paves the way to a victory with a small margin in key Electoral College states. In 2016 these key states were targeted by Russian trolls and hackers who had RNC polling data to help them. All in all, 70,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan put Trump
in the White House.
When only 60% of registered voters bother showing up as was the case in 2016, electoral distortion becomes far easier to manage. The minority Republicans count on Democratic voter apathy.
There is only one solution to the racial divisiveness and violence that Trump and his GOP lackeys promote for the purpose of political power: A massive voter turnout. Vote and get out the vote against Trump and every Republican who stands by his side. Restore human decency to our nation.
4
In my humble opinion, the precedent for Trump was set by Ronald Reagan, he who "could do no wrong" in spite of having the beginnings of Alzheimer's. He was our first Teflon president. The second, some could argue, was Bill Clinton, although most of the damage that he did was marital and not national. Still, the acceptable standards for presidency slipped during his watch. The third Teflon president was George Bush III, who, with his administration, has yet to be held responsible for the fraudulent war in Iraq. And Teflon Don is our now our fourth as our standards get lower and lower and lower, and have, hopefully, bottomed out.
You fail to mention the key enablers in this lopsided scrutiny of Trump's potential opponents, while his behavior gets a yawn: the press. As long as the press continues to focus on minor irrelevancies it begs the question of why billionaire owners of media might want to do that.
I have to vent a bit. Politicians have been lying to us for decades/centuries, it’s part of the job description. This “holier than thou” posture by the Dems and media doesn’t ring true to the independent voter (or Republicans like me who detest Trump) - May I suggest that the Dems need to stop “tattling” about Trump’s latest whopper and FOCUS ON A MESSAGE that resonates with average voters, which is NOT ABOUT FREE STUFF or Medicare for all. If they can’t define this message and communicate it, they will lose, and should lose. (MAGA, on those cheap hats, worked to some extent - can’t those Madison Ave geniuses create something to rival that simple message, give us a rallying cry?)
2
Enjoy another four years of this. I don't see anyone overcoming this.
2
Democrats have two new advantages to counter Trump's. The first advantage is that they know better than to repeat Hilary's error in speaking out strongly about what Trump would do, and not speaking strongly enough about what Hillary would do. For example, "He will build a wall!" she would say, thinking that uncommitted voters would vote against this. What happened is that Trump's message was repeated both by Hilary and by Trump and Hilary's message was drowned out. Just barely enough people in key states voted for that message to elect Trump.
The media is also wiser now. Trump's rallies were pretty much covered end-to-end because the highly unusual (and inflammatory) rhetoric was deemed to be newsworthy. This is "man bites dog" news. Now his rallies are the new normal. They are still shocking, but they fall in the genre of unnewsworthy "dog bites man," so the media is already ignoring them. And instead of printing every tweet, the media has wised up and reprints only a smattering. Summaries like "15 false statements today" and "6 candidates, 2 former cabinet members, and a disloyal GOP rep insulted today" are sufficient to let you know that Trump's tweeter fingers cannot be controlled.
So the 2020 campaign will be different, repeating some of the 2016 strategies and introducing whole new ones. It is too soon to predict with confidence how things will turn out.
1
The Democrats just do not have a candidate in the field able to handle Trump - a shouting match will not work and Biden looks and performs like a man who has lost the edge. It is sad to see him out there.
Too bad we lost Al Franken - he might have already lapped this field, including Trump.
2
The Democratic Party has only itself to blame if it doesn't defeat Trump. 27 candidates, divisiveness evidenced at debates, a failure to focus on Trump's lack of fitness for office. I'm feeling cynical.
3
The DNC will cheat and anoint Biden, just like they did with Hillary. Maybe they will feed him the debate questions again, too. The Bernie Bros and social just warriors will stay away. Trump will win.
I can imagine good reasons for all the Democrat hopefuls to dither and blather and bluster: They are all splitting the same hair and have little of substance to differentiate them, and are projecting "good" against Trump's "strength," making them seem effete. Picture, though, almost any one of them standing up to Trump. They will be responding to a man of ten-thousand lies, hated policies and a character that has brought many people to peruse the DSM-5 psychiatric manual for narcissism and sociopathy. The Democratic candidate will be standing resolute against a tide of immorality. He or she will do well.
"All of these complaints, I think, were accurate and fair. But they’re also picayune in the context of what Trump bungles, exaggerates and invents all the time."
Isn't that the point. We can go left of Biden and get a candidate whose policies are too extreme for the American people to swallow.
For whatever reason Trump appears to immune to what normal people would be burned at the stake for. But the real reason, the overly significant reason, is very simple- Republicans do not call him out for his absolute nonsense and inability to really run the government. Unless the Republicans confront him he will win the next election. Keep in mind that there are no Democratic candidates running for his office who are "charismatic" enough to out pace Trump.
I am a white male who voted for Hillary Clinton.
however, I am completely
sickened by the apparently innumerable Democratic
candidates droning on
and on about white
privilege and white
supremacy. yes,whites
have the sin of slavery
on our collective conscience; but we also
gave the world electricity,
the works of Shakespeare,
the Mona Lisa and the
cure for polio. I,for one,am
not ashamed of being born
white. I am tired of being
demonized and needlessly condemned for being whom I am. I do not think
that I will vote for Trump,
but if the Democrats who
are running for president
continue this vile racial
invective, I will have to
regretfully reconsider.
4
Great point Frank. It's not only the press the late night comedians jump on everyone's
eccentricities. Bernie's loud voice and unruly hair are there for cheap jokes, but he has been constant in his message and his platform. Remember what the comedians did to Al gore? A few miscues and the fact that he wouldn't make a great drinking partner cost him an election where he was up against a complete imbecile. Journalists should stick to reporting on the programs the candidates are focusing on, not their theatrical performances. I'm a huge fan of Seth Meyers, but he too stoops to cheap jokes about Bernie. Universal health care is not a radical joke, we rely on it up here in Canada. Tommy Douglas, the man who fought for this program was no movie star, but he was stubborn and fought for health care for all he was worth. Trump doesn't need any more help. Be precise in political criticism but give these women and men a break on the odd slip up.
2
Excuse me. lets not forget that the Republicans lost forty seats in the House of Representatives just 9 short months ago.
Donald Trump will lose in a landslide and we will have our first female President.
Mark my words I predicted Trump's win in 2016.
Do people realize that these tit for tat “tweets” are not normal behavior for any grown up sane person? That they emanate from the Oval Office is astounding.During the Civil War There was rancor and terrible bloodshed between the Union and the Confederacy but the Republican Lincoln did everything in his power to mitigate the divisions.He was the healer.The Republican Trump fans the fires of division and works to hurt and tear apart.
2
However wrongheaded his bluster, Trump projects a self-assurance that many Americans find comforting when so many of our institutions and cherished myths are under attack (wrongly or rightly).
The important question is whether Trump's massive, obvious flaws will drive away more mostly white voters than he attracts with his rhetoric and personality. I'm not rushing to the wisdom that Trump can't be beat, but I'm not ignorant of his advantages--and his supporters. Even so, many members of his base despise his tweeting and other "embarrassing" behaviors, in the words of a Republican lawyer's wife. Is there a portion of his vaunted "base" that he will at last turn off enough either to stay at home or vote somebody else in 2020? That's just not clear now.
Think trump can't win again?
Yesterday's NYT had a column about the Democratic Socialists of America announcing they would only support and vote for Bernie.
trump's voters will turn out.
trump will work hard to discourage opposition from voting.
it's deja vu all over again.
1
If his supporters are upset they voted for hater then they shouldn’t vote for him. What they’re really upset about is that we had the audacity to call them out on it. Do you honestly believe the deplorable comment made any difference in votes? It was a rallying cry that’s all. Also assuming you’re right why wouldn’t calling Democrats socialists have a similar effect. Again and Bruni points out there is a double standard where Democrats are expected to be civil while ignoring the savagery of Republicans.
The Democrats lost in 2016 by nominating the only human being on the planet who is more disliked than Trump. Unless they nominate her again in 2020, I have little doubt Trump will be a one-term president.
Trump delivers what his supporters want and since he's letting the 1% pig out, he won't get any opposition there. The dem's will continue to feed talking points to Fox, et al, which might not really hurt, but it sure won't help.
It is a fact that Americans tend to tolerate a great deal until they are personally hurt by the shenanigans of their leaders.
Nothing more than a hunch but mine is that his schtick is wearing thin. This time around, he won't be to anyone a breath of fresh air, but a lot of hot turned stale air. The Democratic nominee will not be intimidated by him. Sane people are all concerned but I, not ordinarily optimistic, am cautiously so.
1
I wholly believe in my heart and in my brain that the only person that could beat Trump right now is Mrs. Obama.
Too many extreme leftists will pull the moderates who don't like Trump, right into his arms, or to an independent, which is about the same as voting for Trump.
Biden is just showing that he's just not up for this at all.
Boy, talk about low expectations; your submerged faith in the likes of Elizabeth Warren, who would absolutely destroy Trump, mano-a-mano, in the presidential debates, scares me. But, not as much as Trump scares the American people, even those in the minority, who seem to like him. Nobody truly knows what this reckless man, of low intellect, and even lower morality, is gonna do next. He's a wrecking ball and the destruction is getting fearsome. I see that you don't like Warren's proposals on healthcare and immigration, and they are out there, but they're not without merit, and certainly merit discussion. She's shows courage to suggest such bold changes, smarts to articulate the finer details, and passion to move the needle of national consensus. Go girl! 2020, I can't wait.
1
Bruni's analysis presents a depressing scenario of the 2020 presidential election. Trump vs Biden: two septagenerians who stumble over their words. But the similarity of their age and spotty command of enunciation ends there. Trump has demonstrated total inability to execute presidential duties, obstructive conduct in the Mueller investigation, and a disturbing propensity for spewing fear and hatred. His incendiary rhetoric has divided this nation along racial lines, and his misguided belief that punitive tariffs will grow our economy is wreaking havoc. Biden, for all his deficits (age, questionable decision making as senator, inappropriate "hands-on" episodes) at least gives voters a reasonable choice to replace the horror show of a presidency we are witnessing.
I do not understand why the writer bother to talk about Biden. Why not talking about Bernie Sanders? Bernie is the only one beating Trump in every poll. He is the one with more individual contributions by far. Why not giving us, the readers, a bit of comfort and hope instead of talking about Biden (a second Hillary in male version)
1
Wasn't Jimmy Carter, in addition to Bush I, also defeated when seeking a second term?
Mr. Bruni, don’t worry. I am certain the way things are going by the middle of September if not sooner the White House Cabinet will take action. Lead by Wilbur Ross and Steve Mnuchin the cabinet will invoke the 25 amendment and remove Trump from office. Ross and Mnuchin are right there in the room with him. They know Trump is unstable and he is increasingly showing manic behavior. Ross and Mnuchin understand the existential threat that presents itself not only to our system of government but to the world markets and to the American economy when you have a commander-in-chief who is detached from reality. Ross and Mnuchin will take a chance on Pence that he can restore some sense of normality.
If the economy tanks, he will lose--as he should. If it remains strong, he will win. What most of the chattering class misses in all the rest is that a huge number of Americans *like* the fact that Trump is outrageous, especially insofar as it offends liberal sensitivities.
We enable Trump by paying so much aghast attention to him. Instead, we need a leader who understands that we must seek to join together to disqualify him as a buffoon who has succeeded in distracting us all, middle class liberals and conservatives, from the work of his handlers: Mitch McConnell and the senate republicans and their billionaire backers who continue to succeed in dividing us and weakening us and controlling us and ripping us off while ensuring their secure hold on power. The Russians and the Chinese and the North Koreans and Iran and the Republicans share the same strategic goal: the continued dividing and weakening of the American middle class. Ignore Trump. Change the narrative. Come together.
4
Mr. Bruni, as you have admitted, even the respectable press is giving him that advantage. It could just stop.
2
You've seen a multi car pileup on the interstate cause traffic jams in the opposite direction because most every driver must slow down to ogle the carnage and possibly count their blessings. The greater the wreckage the more of our attention it commands.
When that phenomenon is exploited by a human caused disaster it gins up the algorithms that spike clicks and eyeballs (revenue) and that attention also profits the human behind the wreckage. So destruction is worth either fame or money to the person that causes it.
So a problem arises when the disaster is created by a human, like a mass shooter, or a President, and they in effect profit from the destruction they create. The media profit motive becomes joined at the hip with the destructive force. It ain't natural..
3
The fact that Trump stands a good chance of winning re-election is utterly depressing and scary. I don't see how our country survives a second term. I for one am exhausted. If Trump wins in 2020, I like many other Americans, will likely tune out to save our own sanity. And Trump will have carte blanche, free rein to do whatever he wants to destroy the country.
Scary times... I wish I had more faith in my fellow Americans and that so many weren't so easily fooled by this charlatan.
1
Trump's fear mongering is not leadership, and leadership is what the country yearns for. The middle has seen through the tough guy act. Trump blew his chance to be a leader.
He's losing in a landslide.
Frank, seeking a heroic response to a despot, is misguided. The best candidate will reach out to people with common decency.
3
We’re at retirement age and worked hard for 4 decades to achieve some economic stability. There’s NO WAY we’re going to vote for your socialist revolution and de facto ‘open borders’ at this stage of our lives.
Unless you dream of living in an overpopulated, culturally divisive, economically and environmentally burdened third world country without ever leaving home, you, too, will immediately come to your senses and reject the irreversibly destructive agenda currently being rammed down our throats by the so-called ‘progressive’ faction of the Democratic Party.
We (my family of Democrats) have never voted Republican in our lives...but that’s about to change. Good job, Dems!
1
Uh, yeah. The hot takes in the media on everything from Meuller’s testimony, obsessing on it being a “performance” to post debate prattle is very damaging to our civic discourse.
I happened to be listening to NPR as the Meuller testimony came to a close and the pundits panned Meuller, proclaiming what had occurred on Capitol Hill that day was not going to make any difference. Then, the first three or four callers phoned to say quite the opposite: that of course they weren’t going to read a 450 page report, but that Meuller had opened their eyes as to what had been going on with this president. They thanked NPR profusely for covering the hearings.
The media’s pillorying of Al Gore gave us GW Bush, and of course Hillary got Gored as well. You guys are all about the horse race, all about false equivalency.
But your coverage has consequences. Real consequences. People, including children, are dead as a direct result of Trump being in the White House. And many more are dead because Bush was president. Gore would have never invaded Iraq. And we’d probably be on much better footing in confronting climate change.
And then there are the Supreme Court picks that never should have happened. And all the Court packing under McConnell.
Because you guys in the media like to make it close, the US is now run by an unpopular minority.
Thanks a bunch. When are you going to learn?
3
I predict Biden and Bernie will fade before January. If we can all try to keep Mayor Pete, Amy Klobuchar and Bollock alive long enough they will “age” much better, and hopefully give us a seriously viable candidate. I suggest people send money to these three candidates. America is not a center-left nation, get over it.
Despair warranted worry a valid emotion. Trump enjoys advantages mostly related to incumbency. The Democrats are not responsible for foisting this guy off on the public. The GOP led by Trump and Dr. No repeal without the replacement health care bill impossible to defend. Climate the party and Trump are on the losing side of that argument. Immigration appears to be a toss-up but Trump hemmed in by Ann Coulter cannot find his message in the subject. The tax bill in the tank in the polls the deficit growing make the Dow Jones argument a little esoteric. Not to mention slightly beyond Trump's ability to explain. Race baiting and immigrant bashing now ruled out with Trump's speech will resurface.
The final truth is 2016 election pitted the two most flawed negatively viewed candidates in history. One is gone and the other remains unpopular. Trump will face a better candidate in 2020 with the 2018 elections as a guide.
Trump always one tweet away for destroying himself.
Frank ... Your observation is spot on but don't you think it says more about us as a country rather than about Trump?
I think it doesn't matter how many people get out and vote against trump, if the Russians hack our elections again none of it will matter. There's no hope of an honest tally and anything close will be contested to death. It all feels so hopeless.
Trump is surfing a wave that has been rolling towards our shore for a long time. He didn't create anything; he saw the wave, understood the power of it and dropped in for the ride. Obama caused the wave to peak because he is competent and non-white which really focused the "base" Trump counts on. Likewise, Trump will focus us too; "who are we that we would elect and support such a man?". How long will this wave roll? Mr. Bruni may be right, I hope not.
The election will be served up to him on a silver platter if a segment of Democrats stay on their white privilege rant and apply the broad brush that they always claimed was applied previously to other historically discriminated groups. My suggestion is focus on Trump's failure to distance himself from outright white supremacists, focus some on his general crookedness, question and embarrass evangelical leaders that support him on their own lack of morality, and project ahead what the future looks like for younger Americans if he gets re-elected. Even his specific lack of performance doesn't mean anything any more, the electorate has been inoculated by generations of politicians who don't do anything and it is almost expected that regardless of party that will take place. That argument falls on deaf ears by now. As other commenters have pointed out, the broad brush might be satisfying for some, but it will get the same result as Hillary's basket of deplorables comment. A re-election would be a disaster and tantamount to a coronation, and if that happens don't be surprised if he wears a sash and medals on his uniform at the inauguration .
3
If trump is re-elected, whether by the popular vote or the Electoral College, it will be proof that democracy, and our form of it, has failed, is invalid, undesirable, and is not worth continuing.
4
Instead of amateurish "Russian Interference", we should worry more about the domestic Political Action Committees that funnel billions into the political process to advance or defend their private interests.
When I was involved in public utility regulation in New Jersey, the big ones all had their political action committees, supported by executive contributions. The message was less than subtle.....to advance in the company, you should contribute to defending its political interests.
One utility, PSEG, was able to use its largess to get a law through the NJ Legislature and Governors office for a $300 million a year subsidy for its unregulated utility plants, by saying that without the subsidy, the plants would close. And the law did not require them to provide any accounting or financial evidence that the subsidy was needed to keep the plants running, or any analysis of what the impact would be if the plants were to shut down.
These utility employee PACs were run by executives of the companies, who were given time off with pay to do it. Which is the same as saying the utilities themselves paid for the management.
No doubt, these corporate PACs will work overtime to see that Elizabeth Warren never gets elected.
11
Let's not forget that The Donald only won the midwestern states that Obama carried by less than a combined total of 200,000 votes. Being the incumbent certainly carries a lot of weight. However, Trump's so called "economic " policies have reeked havoc on the very states Frank implies will automatically go to Trump again. Trump is currently playing Russian roulette with the economy and the fodder for his game happens to be those very same critical states. Don't think the Chinese don't know what his game is. Time has shifted to China's favor. With the US bond market signaling a strong possibility of a recession in the near future, there is no way Trump can get a deal from China that will favor his candidacy. The Democrats simply need to choose the right two people and be ready to pounce once Trump's "easy to win trade wars " strategy collapses. I don't believe I'm saying this but whatever the Democrats do they must have Elizabeth Warren on the ticket. That woman has too many good ideas and too much passion to be left on the sidelines.
6
Why will most independent voters be reacting 15 months out as Frank says they are now doing?
1
Two Trump advantages from 2016 that he will not have in 2020: 1) The Democratic nominee will be someone other than Hillary Clinton. 2) The Democrats will not be trying to win a third term in the White House.
A Democratic advantage in 2020 that did not exist in 2016: an electorate that recognizes the existential threat Trump poses to the nation and that will be eager to vote him out of office.
9
@50kw - are you so very sure the electorate recognizes Trump as more of a threat now? Some of us could see him as a threat even in 2016. Not to mention that Hillary was a very qualified candidate but, alas, was female. That sank her more than anything else, no matter what anybody might say to justify otherwise.
@eml16 how exactly did Hillary's gender sink her candidacy when she won the popular vote? If not for the electoral college, which had nothing to do with gender of the candidate, she would be president.
Increasing numbers, regardless of party affiliation, are tired of wondering if we should update our wills and say goodbye to all our loved ones before we leave the house for the most mundane errands. Perhaps Republican inaction on even the least controversial gun regulation will help turn the tide.
4
I see the rationale behind this article but most peeps have had plenty of time to see trump's true colors. His niche of black and Hispanic voters is dropping like a rock. If the dems can present a centrist candidate that appeals to left leaning conservatives, it's all over for donnie.
8
The difference between Joe Biden’s gaffes and Trump’s is enormous. I would wager that Trump has suffered at least a few TIAs, brought on by his bad diet, lack of exercise, and general stress, rendering him unable to clearly speak or think at times, and he also may be in the early to mid stages of dementia (perhaps Alzheimer’s), whereas Biden’s gaffes seem to be more normal age-related mishaps. My mother had both TIAs and Alzheimer’s and I can tell you that Trump’s behaviors are spot on for both. But Teflon Don will continue to escape scrutiny of his behaviors while Biden will be pilloried.
6
I still think Trump’s incumbency is his biggest advantage. The media has made his rallies must-see TV from the get-go. But the power of the presidency and looking presidential add to that.
If mass shootings become any more epidemic between now and November 2020, the Republicans may have a disadvantage. Especially if there are marches like Parkland. If an issue takes over the electorate - such as gun control - it could change the 2020 election.
BTW, along with Bush 41, Carter and Ford only served one term. Perhaps the NYT should make a note of that.
3
The most recent Marist poll asked people who supported Trump in 2016 whether they Approved/Disapproved of him now. The Disapprove column was 1-2%. That means almost none of the Trump voters from 2016 have changed their minds. If a Democrat is going to win in 2020, she/he will have to get a lot of votes from people who did not vote in 2016, because he/she is not going to get a lot of votes from people who voted for Trump.
4
I appreciate character is an important part of picking a President. Although I'd remind you that you guys selected Trump.
And guess what, all politicians essentially lie. Did any President actually achieve what they said they would?
Pulling apart a few words, or miss-words, in a debate seems to me totally irrelevant when selecting a candidate. Sure there's suitability, character, likability and showmanship.
There's also policies. Don't they matter a bit more.
2
@Paul
Policies? I don't think Democrats care. They're too busy pointing out the obvious about Trump. How is that a platform?
Mr. Bruni: Yes, I heard those stumbles from Joe Biden as well. And I also saw Kamala Harris stumble in the debate. And I watched Robert Mueller, and heard some of his stumbles as well. How much of this concern is due to the expectation that there has to be one person who is going to take Donald Trump down? We are all imperfect, but if we work together WE can take Donald Trump down. Look at the difference it has made with Democratic House chairs. What if we also had a Democratic Senate in addition to a Democratic House? Even if Trump wins, the Senate logjam will be broken. We can't absolve ourselves of responsibility to do whatever we can to make sure Trumpsm is defeated by designating our latest savior to fix this for us.
4
This was obvious months ago ... Our Tweeter-in-Chief's manipulations are analogous to the paradox of Schrödinger's cat, that fictional creature of modern physics situated such that it's impossible to state whether it's alive or dead and in fact may be treated as both simultaneously. Trump's gyrations aren't those of a political genius. Rather they epitomize the self-serving uncertainty of an erratic and intellectually challenged yet unfettered egotist, one who the short-sighted, wistfully wishful Democratic party is allowing to ensure an eventual four more years of chaos.
1
Trump and the GOP are doubling down to really see if Ignorance is Strength. If 2020 proves that Ignorance is Strength, then, there will not be much hope for the country.
However, if Ignorance isn't Strength, and the GOP are voted out in droves, then expect them to fight from the sidelines to try to Make Ignorance Great Again.
The crowning frustration of all of this is just how much the media has made this possible, and how little is likely to be learned from the moment. Things like false equivalency, and failing to hold the GOP to account for their regimen of lying (one would like to use "mendacity" in this context, but that's too fancy for the Ignorance is Strength nation the GOP's trying to build).
The media gave Trump a massive amount of free press in 2015 that made 2016 possible. The media manages to approach the GOP's systematic attacks on our democracy as a "both sides do it" false equivalency fable, and it also holds Democratic candidates to a far higher standard of conduct than it does Republicans. This kind of conduct is tailor-made for the Ignorance is Strength nation.
Hold the GOP (and Trump) to account for their behavior, and they'll pay at the polls. If you carry water for the GOP, and their antidemocratic agenda, then the republic itself suffers.
2
Handicapping debates & picking apart candidate comments 15 months before the election is strictly in the interest of the reality tv narrative that drives media ratings, in broadcast, print, and streaming. But the actual secret to the current president’s ability to get away with his stew of imprecisions and lies consists largely in his never sharing the stage with someone who can speak eloquently and immediately confront him with his own nonsense and inconsistencies. In this respect, the debates do serve a purpose, as the eventual candidate has to be able to navigate a noisy free-for-all while remaining verbally sharp and quick-witted enough to filet the president on live tv. Bruni is correct that Biden, with his stumbles and verbal sloppiness is singularly unsuited to this task. Kamala Harris, anyone?
1
water seeks its own level. And apparently the republican level is quite low if Trump is what appeals them
1
In a contest of old white guys trump wins every time, whether it's Biden or Bernie. Only a woman can beat trump, just like last time. Harris and Warren are both fearless and smart and both could energize enough voters to overcome the antiquated electoral college.
6
@Gord Harris and/or Warren will turn off as many voters as they will energize. But Trump would be helpless before the cool and YOUNG military background ticket of Tulsi Gabbard and Mayor Pete (wins battle of Indiana against Pence in VP debate).
@Gord
Just like last time? Huh?
The one flaw in democracy is that the people get to vote.
5
@617to416 The problem is that ignorant people and grifters get to vote.
You are absolutely right, Frank. Picking Biden apart while forgetting what Trump says is akin to the media obsession with Hillary's emails while she was running against Trump, and their obsession with Anthony Wiener's laptop while Trump was getting away with murder. I hope the media learn from the last campaign and do not repeat their costly mistake again, for they contributed to Trump's win.
3
Trump supporters already have their minds made up. None of the Democratic candidates can change that. Biden is a disaster and always has been.
But is it too late for a candidate running back in the pack to win? I like the guy from Wyoming a lot.
This is truly pessimistic, perhaps nihilistic stuff. The electoral college stuff is truly scary, yes, and, at some time in this nation's future, needs to be corrected with a simple popular vote. However, what galls me about your assessment is the idea that the Trump base plus, are willing to sacrifice their morals (if they ever had them) for Trump. I believe that there is fundamental good in this country which is being corrupted on a daily basis by Trump and his acolytes. I also believe there are many millennials and others who were not registered in 2016 who will come out to help rid the U.S. of this malaise many of us feel, and to restore some sense of balance and normalcy that has been sorely lacking in the past two and a half years. If you're right, and I'm work, then God help, not bless, the United States of America!
6
Over time I think this sort of advantage disappears.
I strongly recommend that the Senator and Representative Democratic candidates take some time off campaigning and write some clear laws to show what they can do and not just what they want to do. For instance, Democrats don't want illegal immigration, they want to decriminalize it and issue fines instead. Make those fines immense, $10,000 to start with and scaling up for each offense. If they can afford such fines, it would be more cost-effective for them to stay south of the border and apply for legal entry. Couple that with insistence that already established laws that require humane treatment of detained violators be observed. Pass the law in the house. Boldly advertise it every day in its journey through Senate interference and keep on doing so every day until the elections. The Democratic Senators should draft the same bill and advertise the problems it has every day just as the House does. We know two bills on universal background checks are being blocked in the Senate. That should be front page bold headlines and Trump should be relegated in fine print to the least-read sections of the paper. Quit giving him free advertising with the possible exception of a small page two mention, "Trump continues to be a bigot, a thug, and a narcissist. See page 32." The mainstream media must quit giving him prominent coverage. The Democrats must show they have actions for now, not just what they hope to do. And they need proactive coverage.
2
The Democratic Party is failing. Liberal media is failing. They are engaging in a circular firing squad and emphasizing fringe issues and views
All of the candidates should be able to give their views and policy proposals, but they should refrain from attacking each other.
Candidates! I want to know what you have done, what you stand for, your ideas. When I hear you slam another Democratic candidate; I don't like you.
3
@Sharon "a circular firing squad and emphasizing fringe issues" Yes there seems to be some sort of trans article a few times every week, in the NYT.
Great! Let this guy rule for "eight more years", or better yet, 50 more years, you guys play fast and loose with the definition of "dictator" that I don't know if eight years is enough. America has already lost any claim to moral high lands on the international stage, but it can lose some more. Trump can do it as the whole world cheers "hooray".
The majority of Americans...including moderates of both parties and independents...may not want to vote ‘for’ Trump. But they will vote ‘against’ the so-called progressive agenda.
So Trump wins by default. Good job, Dems!
3
In the run up to the last election the media dutifully chased his shiny object of the day so none of the other R candidates got much attention. Now the media continues to chase every rabbit he releases while nit picking the most minor misstatements of the Dem presidential candidates. All the while largely ignoring the barrage of lies from tRump. There is also very limited coverage of the damage this administration is doing as tRump showboat antics get wall to wall coverage.
4
Micro targeting a select group of voters via Facebook will not work this time around: everyone knows about it, and a stink would rise before polling day. Apart from the people who vote the way they always do, the deciding factor will be the economy and how well people are feeling, especially the working class. If there is full employment and rising wages, President Trump will be returned. Trump knows this, and it is why he will continue to crack down on immigration of unskilled labour, which is holding down wages at the bottom end.
Something terrible and dangerous is happening in the United States that is akin to a national nervous breakdown. First, a little bit less than half of the American people support Trump no matter what he says or does. The increasing number of mass murders in our nation seem to trigger additional killings so that we can anticipate our own shock and awe that resembles firecrackers starting a chain reaction. That a personality like Trump can not only win the Presidency but has a good chance at re-election suggests that the nation is spiraling into a dark hole in which the light is not visible, What to do?
First crack the Trump base. Change the language of the campaign. Words like "hate", "decency", "divisive", "progressive", "moderate" etc. are ineffective. Instead of talking about "climate change" talk about the gutting of the "Clean Air Act", the trampling of science that brought the United States and the world a host of protections in medicine, the environment, transportation, space exploration, health, etc. In short study the Trump base and find where Trump is betraying their immediate interests. And lastly, remind voters that the Democratic Party has a history since FDR in Making America Great and the American people safe and secure.
4
"None of the Democratic candidates enjoy this perverse protection because none of them sought it."
I'm pretty sure Biden has the less offensive version of this.
While you, Frank, may choose to howl over a 76 year old man's inability to spew out a jumble of numbers and look for any corroboration of Trump's "Sleepy Joe" nickname, some of us are looking for a candidate capable of delivering some level of national reconciliation paired with a realistic plan to greatly enhance health insurance coverage.
If you want a thoughtless suit who can repeat meaningless nonsense verbatim, then you can step up and actually endorse Trump for reelection.
3
I'm surprised Frank left out the advantage Trump has in red states weaponizing gerrymandering and voter suppression methods aimed at minorities, the poor and likely Democratic voters.
2
I cannot imagine Trump as President of USA for 4 more years! The damage to your nation and the world will be abominable. It will take at least a generation to repair.
I foresee a break of your essential fabric as a society. Wars will be inevitable.
I am feeling the same way I felt back during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Scary.
Miss Pelosi, please go ahead with the impeachment inquiry.
1
If Trump wins in 2020 it will be because Republicans have used social media more effectively than Democrats. Trump's ad buys on social media are now at high levels and are giving Trump a head start. Yes, Democrats are making social media ad buys too. Their buys are related to their primary campaigns and not to a general election campaign. The most powerful campaign strategy on social media is to use lies and deception that confirm fears. It is a strategy tailored to the Trump campaign.
Trump used a social media campaign based on lies effectively in 2016. His tools were Cambridge Analytica, Steve Bannon and the ability to coordinate Russian / Ukrainian troll farms with analysis and targeting by Cambridge Analytica.
Cambridge Analytica has gone out of business. Its technical assets have not been accounted for. Expect them to reappear in two or three firms in 2020.
Robert Mueller's investigation did not deal effectively with just how the Trump campaign coordinated with Cambridge Analytica and how Cambridge Analytica coordinated with the troll farms.
3
Democrats need to simultaneously focus hard on taking back the Senate. If you don't get traction, candidates, drop out of the Presidential race & run for Senate. I'm talking to you, Colorado, Montana & Texas. Plus Maine, Georgia, even Kentucky. And hold on to Alabama. God forbid if Frank is right and we have four more years of this atrocious man, the Senate & House could restrain his worst instincts and hold him accountable for his words, his tweets and his actions. Stop his nepotism and self-dealing. Stop his packing the courts with pre-anointed conservatives and his tearing apart of environmental regulations and the ACA. Stand up for our allies in the world. Stand up for citizens, immigrants, and refugees who come to our shores seeking safety and opportunity. Stand up for what is right and good in this country.
I don't know why Nate Cohn thinks Trump will win Pennsylvania or Michigan, because all current polls show him losing virtually to any Democratic candidate there, to Biden most of all.
This is already not Hillary Clinton's election, but Nancy Pelosi's. The Democrats took back the House in 2018 by fielding strong, smart, center-left candidates all across the board. Despite out-the-gate problems we all can see, they're likely to do the same thing next year. And they'll crawl over broken glass to deny Trump a second term. Meanwhile, his Republican base shrinks, while independents and never-Trumpers keep growing. I wouldn't ignore all of that.
2
Maybe Trump's trade war with China will cause an economic downturn as China will NOT back down,
and that will knock some sense into those who voted for hin.
Relax, the election is a long time away and a lot can happen until then.
1. Democrats should "call out" the Evangelicals for turning a blind eye to what Trump has done related to immigration, lack of any gun control ( guns kill people)
2. Ask about small town roads and bridges
3. Why is there no internet in so many places in the US?
4. People mined to make a living and dies doing it....and they want their family to continue ? How about other jobs in those places
Go to every red village city town and state and make the point that regardless if Trump wins they lose.
1
Every thing you write is true, but really irrelevant. The Electoral College has been there forever. And as for the rest, just remember that Trump got 63 million votes, which is 3 million less than Hillary got, but a lot less than the 100 million or so voters who didn't bother to vote.
So don't blame Stein or write-ins. If the Dems can't find a way to get say just one million of those non-voters (that's just 1% of them) to vote "D" in November 2020, they deserve to lose because Trump was and will still be in 2020, the worst, most unqualified candidate ever. So the next election is the Dems to lose, whoever their candidate is.
1
Democrats have got to finally grow a spine and stand FOR something. The American people need a leader to lead them TO something not just away from something. There are some serious systemic problems with this country that need addressing such as our dysfunctional healthcare system, our bloated out of control military budget, our continued wars and regime change endeavors, climate change where we are running out of time before we are on an irreversible course to mass extinction. Focus on those issue and lead on them and you will win. Focus on a person, regardless of how odious, and expect to loose, again.
2
We'll just have to wait and see. The most painful thing about Trump winning in 2016 was that it was largely a betrayal of America by Americans.
4
Thank you for writing this. Someone in the press had to state what the media is getting wrong.
There was a false supposition that any candidate had to dominate the debates, and if worse they fumbled, they were unworthy of facing Trump, the master of toxic fumbles and lies.
This has been the narrative despite the debates being a reality show event constructed by CNN to boost ratings by maximizing conflict, with gotcha questions, split-screens, and points tallied based on who got the most zingers in. The media then amplified and distorted all conflict and fumbles as if unrelated to a cynical ratings game.
The media in determining Biden's supposed failure ignored that its fundamental criteria is irrelevant to most Democrats and Americans. Some actual empirical data: Biden continued to dominate the race despite a poor performance in the first debate, and consolidated a large lead after a competent, if hardly inspiring, performance in the second debate.
A fundamental point the media ignores, just as in 2016 it ignored the scope of Trump's nativist/racist appeal, clinging to a narrative that only a small minority of voters could support Trump because of his toxic rhetoric, is that Democrats supporting Biden do so knowing he's never been a good (or even a mediocre) debater, and never will be.
The media should consider that if Democrats were choosing candidates based on snappy lines and left-wing rhetoric, Bill de Blasio would be leading the pack, instead of polling at zero.
4
Trump’s advantage is his ability to connect with working-class voters in the Midwest, which is rather amazing for someone of his social class. He feels their pain and is standing up to China and fighting illegal immigration to protect jobs. The Democrats want to sell free college, free childcare, and universal healthcare. That’s not what the working-class is interested in.
2
@Mark Actually, that is what the working class is interested in. Only they want to see it individualized, so that it is coming into their own households, rather than generalized, which makes them feel that only other people are getting it. And this is the distinction that Trump plays to, even though he knows he won't deliver, and which the Democrats for the most part seem totally blind to.
4
@laolaohu
You're wrong. I'm from the Midwest. We didn't need free college, free childcare, or universal healthcare in the past, because a person with just a high school degree could get a manufacturing job that afforded him these things. These people have suffered, because they lost their jobs to China and Mexico. They don't want to go to college. Many of them don't even want kids. They want their jobs and their dignity back. Trump understands that, but the Democrats don't.
3
@Mark I am also originally from the Midwest, and I know many working class parents who would love to be able to send their children to college, and to be able to provide quality health care for them when they need it, and not to have to break the bank in order to pay for child care when they can even find it. And almost everyone I ever knew who worked in a factory would have liked for their children to grow up and find something better. I guess we didn't grow up in the same town.
2
The reverse of Trump’s advantage is the Democratic Party’s disadvantage. Just as Trump gets a pass for his faults, the Democratic Party gets nothing but blame for its faults. This disparity in treatment has been going on for decades. Voters are a lot harder on Democrats than they are on Republicans. There are understandable explanations for why this is the case. Refs like Mr. Bruni have been worked. Democrats themselves acquiesce to being judged by a higher standard. The once-great party is a battered woman in a sexist relationship, and everyone gets rewarded for beating her up.
In 2016, most of the mainstream media, including the Times, viewed the prospect of a Trump victory as near impossible.
They spent the ensuing months and years in self-flagellation at their blindness, and sent droves of reporters into the diners of Ohio and the hollers of West Virginia, searching for the secret to how the impossible happened.
There we met the proverbial "anxious white-working class", a species of American most of these journalists had never met, nor thought much about.
Now, as in this column , e see the reverse, generated by over-compensation for the journalistic mis-deeds of 2016.
Trump won by the thinnest of margins in three states and seems to have attracted no additional support. But Bruni now paints his chances as very good.
If Trump were to "win" it will be because of voter suppression, foreign manipulation, and/or the initiation of a war designed to distract. He is behind in every poll, and there are angry, motivated anti-Trump voters in PA, MI, and WI dedicated to ousting him.
This column has very few facts - it should be read as an attempt to prepare his readers for the possibility that the impossible can happen again. But the election is the Democrats to lose, and barring a complete meltdown at the top of the ticket, I think it likely that Trump will lose.
3
Sand to see how the manipulation of the voting system allows the individual with less votes actually win, that is democracy? I think not.
1
If we went by a majority of the popular vote I suspect Trump would have focused on States like California and won either way. He played the game by the rules of the Constitution.
You should remember we are a Union of originally separate States and the Constitution's electoral college is what they all agreed on. The Federal government as we know it was created by an agreement among the states called the Constitution
Also, we are not a direct democracy. I believe we are something like a constitutional representative republix.
2
Trump could not have done any better in California than he did. Plus, Clinton would have spent additional time in California (and Texas, likely.)
The focus of election interference has been on Russia and its anti-Clinton, pro-Trump efforts.
Perhaps as we approach 2020 China will mount an equally strong campaign against Trump for obvious reasons?
5
It’s true there is a double standard but that is mostly because we are still early in the primary. The media and Democrats expect more of Biden because the alternative for now isn’t Trump but Warren or Sanders or any of the other fine candidates. The bar is higher for the Democratic nominee because of the quality of the candidates. Once one of them becomes the nominee you will immediately see a change in tone. At that point we have a direct comparison and I’d assume the media (excluding Fox News) will only have nice things to say about the Democrat. After all if there was ever any flaw in them it’s unlikely Trump doesn’t exhibit it tenfold and we ignored it this long why start caring?
1
I became a citizen of the United States in 1972 and I love this country. My husband fought for this country but we are leaving if he is reelected. I have worked for over 50 years at major financial services companies and cannot understand or tolerate the current political environment in this great USA.
9
It is said that the meek shall inherit the Earth.
I just don't want it to be what's left of it when Trump and unbridled capitalism is done with it.
5
Attacking President Trump 24/7 on every issue and on everything he says and doesn't say is like highlighting every word in a book. It's a forest with no individual trees. Not effective.
7
We need a Democratic candidate that can go toe-to-toe with an outrageous no-holds-barred unethical, et al., incumbent.
If analysts, journalists etc don't point out the flubs by a candidate who is "leading" in the polls only because of his name recognition and incantations about a former popular president, those of us desperate for a presidential change might as well forget that possibility.
I was struck by Mr. Bruni's prior column "Trumps Grotesque Charade" referring to the speech earlier in the week by Teleprompter Trump. Referring to Trump's audacity to blame "the perils of the Internet and social media" given his Twitter account, Bruni notes that Trump rued how "hatred warps the mind, ravages the heart and devours the soul." Yes, Mr. Bruni is right -Trump was "decrying what he embodies".
Before I read that line in the column, however, I thought how prophetic and self-reflective Trump is ( of course, I am kidding) because I thought inside Trump must be thinking about himself that "hatred warps MY mind, ravages MY heart and devours MY soul".
Oh, Yes, Teleprompter Trump that is exactly right - a warped mind, a ravaged heart and devoured soul" will do and say anything --no matter who it hurts or endangers--to get another four years.
The Democrats better vet & vet & vet a candidate that can go toe-to-toe. Picking apart the poll's current Democratic front runner and his competition is the right & rational thing to do and might be a key part of our only hope.
1
I can't get behind the message of this article at all and I believe it is deeply flawed.
It has been clear from the bgining that Trump was willing to do anything the extermist in the party asked.
In return, they ignore everything but it comes at a cost. They can no longer claim to be pious, fiscally conservative, or in favor of smaller governments.
By picking victory in the short term, they have lost their position in the long term. The party is finished with millenials and this election cycle, he doesn't have fake Facebook ads, DNC hacks or Putin to help him. I believe this election will work out much worse for Trump then everyone expects.
Trumps has another advantage, which is that a significant portion of the electorate, approaching fifty percent, have really had it with this democracy stuff and would gladly trade in their bourgeois freedoms for a carton of cigarettes and a tank of gas.
8
He even enjoys advantages with the economy. By definition, struggling Americans who've been left behind don't have large stock portfolios. And the folks who do have large portfolios don't want to pay their taxes any more than Trump does.
6
You are not taking into account two factors: a significant chance that Trump really wrecks the economy. If that happens, the Teflon will melt away. And the wear and tear of increasing chaos as the election nears. A normal presidency would have a lock on re-election. His re-election is not that secure.
4
Let’s slow down here. We have to go through two more debates at least, and then there are primaries, or does none of that matter? Then there is trump and his do nothing Senate. You don’t think the 2018 election meant anything? His words will become more and more extreme. Do you think that will garner him more supporters? His tariff battles will begin to tougpch the pockets of more and more. Do you think that will endear him to voters? The suspicion is that the media wants him to win to keep subscribers attached. I didn’t believe p, but columns like this make me wonder.
6
I cringed as I heard Joe stumble over what should have been the easiest line of the entire debate. The fact of the matter is that I would vote for a tree stump before I even thought about voting for the incumbent.
20
Gee, my guess was that the biggest advantage was campaign money, which I bet will be at least $1 billion from all sources....until I read the article/opinion.
Anyway: IMO, his biggest advantage is electoral college strategy, which is how he won the first time; and whether that included Russian help is not relevant even if that internal polling data was exchanged for the sole purpose of electoral strategy. In 2020, it will be the same strategy, and, if it's not Russia helping, it will be others.
Uber-rich and powerful people want to stay in power and get richer.
And, "wanna-be" uber-rich people, like Trump, will say and do anything to get into, and stay in, the big boys club.
He has the entire US Government at his command, all 3 branches. Nobody with any power stands up to him. I really don't see how he can lose in 2020.
4
@Alexandra Brockton
"my guess was that the biggest advantage was campaign money.."
Actually, HRC significantly outspent Trump. The uber-rich (Wall Street, tech, entertainers) mostly support Democrats. It is interesting that Trump's victory was mainly due to the support from the middle class.
4
@Kai
Nonsense and more nonsense. The uber-rich support Trump as far as the eye can see.
This from Fox re: this weekend's Trump fundraiser in the Hamptons:
"The reception, targeting Trump supporters with deep pockets, starts around $56,000 per couple to get in the door, $11,000 for the VIP treatment and $35,000 for a pic with the president according to The Washington Post.
Tickets for the speaking event at the luncheon prior to the after-party don't come cheap either. The paper reported Wednesday that ticket prices for lunch go for $100,000 for a photo op and $250,000 for a private convo with Trump."
Do not peddle some fable about Trump being mainly supported by the middle class. The rich know precisely what side their bread is buttered on, both now and in 2016. Hint: it's both sides and butler holds it for them.
@Kai
True, but I was commenting on 2020. Not 2016.
"Whether by design or lucky accident, he has given himself a singular armor, a special inoculation, which is that no one expects more from him."
Trump has given himself nothing. It is what Trump supporters and the GOP have given him - unquestioning loyalty and indulgence to a man not fit to occupy the White House. Trump is the embodiment of what is the least gracious in American politics. He is the symbol for the worst in our nature usurping what should be the noblest and the most gracious in our highest elected official. Make no mistake, Trump is not merely degrading our polity, he is inexorably trashing our soul.
12
Yeah, I fondly remember the second Ford term. The second Carter term was also a hoot.
11
Trump’s economy will defeat him in 2020. We are on the cusp of a recession. He will blame Obama and the Democrats, just as he’s taken credit for the economy. Many Americans will believe him and vote. Depressing.
4
His biggest advantage in 2016 was non-stop coverage from the media. Looks like that'll happen again this time. Thanks, Frank!
10
"But they’re also picayune in the context of what Trump bungles, exaggerates and invents all the time."
Yes. Unfortunately those who cover campaigns takes a side-story and runs with it for days, or months, rather than what really is at stake.
How many remember how Hillary Clinton spoke so forcefully about gun protection measures such as universal background checks, and even campaigned with the "Mothers of the Movement", mothers' who had lost their children to gun violence? How many column inches and hours of TV were devoted to that?
Now how many remember there was something about emails? How many column inches and hours of TV were devoted to that?
12
Although I basically agree with Bruni he is allowing the Trump administration and Trump cultists to trap him in their economic snare and dog-whistle. The economy is already in recession and not over the trade war with China. The economy is a three-card monte game and we are all losing. There is no money in Trump's budgets or plans to deal with climate change, unquestionably a multi-trillion dollar cost that we either undertake or simply move to another habitable planet - and none has been found by any scientists. So Mr. Bruni and all members of the media get your act together and do your job. When you count the cost of climate change into your economic forecasts please deal realistically with the trillions it will cost to save this planet. Trillions of dollars that do not at the moment exist because Trump's tax act made sure to give that money away to the wealthiest segments of America and GOP jumped at the opportunity so count them out when you talk about an economy that is sound or even worse, booming according to the Trump cultists.
12
"And there remains the possibility of interference along the lines of what Russia did in 2016. If you’re a foreign actor with a rooting interest, aren’t you more likely to exercise it on behalf of the guy who has shrugged his shoulders about such machinations?"
Yes, Frank Bruni, but this time the Chinese and Iranian governments might try to interfere and help the Democrats. I don't want any foreign countries interfering with our elections, but by refusing to protect the states' election systems, Trump and McConnell may have to reap what they sow in 2020.
Also, former Massachusetts governor William Weld is running against Trump. Although he will most likely not win, statistics show that presidential incumbents with challengers lose.
4
The big piece coming up next year is that , as the incumbent, Trump has to run on his record.
He had absolutely no record of any political gains or losses in 2016.
So he will be judged on his mess by voters and challenged by the Democratic candidate.
People don't like a mess.
8
I still don't understand why the Russians' meddling has been claimed to have influenced the election. Whatever they did or did not do, the election was won because there were enough disgruntled voters who thought giving Trump a go might be good for them. End of story.
11
@Beat Not end of story. Illogical. The Russian interference could well have convinced a hundred or two hundred thousand voters in three states to think Trump would be good for them when otherwise they would not have thought so.
1
@Beat
What you call "meddling" in Sydney we call treason.
1
Wwe know this is called "Democrats eating their own". Not only did the Dems pick each other apart trying to show off their progressive bona fides, but they even went after Obama and his policies that they didn't, suddenly, find passed their crazy litmus tests. We all know that Republicans are far better politicians than Democrats. Part of this is that having no principles worth fighting for inoculates them from charges of flip-flopping. While Democrats DO have the moral high ground in actually standing for principles worth fighting for, what Democrats do NOT realize is that 99% of what divides them are subtleties and not differences of core values. BUT the Dems, in trying to be "holier than thou", use these small points and plant bacteria into them which festers and ultimately destroys the united base needed to win national elections. For a creep like DeBlasio to dare to attack Biden on the former VPs support for Obama policies was the lowest point so far on the campaign and further grinds what was left of DeBlasio's reputation firmly into the dirt where it belongs. Everyone loved Harris for going after Biden on busing but guess what? Being against FORCED busing is NOT being against racial parity and integration. The bottom line is simple: IF Trump gets reelected it's not because he's a great candidate but because the Democrats simply don't know how to be a party that fights and WINS and therefore, right now, I wouldn't give them more than a 50/50 shot of winning.
8
@ManhattanWilliam You are basically asking the candidates other than Biden to give up their personal ambitions to be President at this early stage. That's ridiculous.
After 4 decades in Congress, 8 years as VP, and two years of unemployment think time, Joe Biden entered the primary race with zero policy proposals. Why? Because Status Quo Joe saw only one problem facing America. He wasn't president.
His first talking point was to brag that he could cut deals with segregationists. His deal was to accept the status quo segregation of public schools. His justification: state's rights. It doesn't take a stable genius to understand that if the states hadn't segregated and under funded minority schools the issue wouldn't be in the courts to begin with.
While the ACA is better than the previous system, I don't understand why tax payers should pay subsidies to the insurance companies when we have a public system that works for tens of millions of people and is cheaper, Medicare. If you like paying the salaries of executives and stockholder dividends, vote for Status Quo Joe.
When defending criminal status for illegal border crossing, I expected a lifetime politician would say "let's amend the law to prohibit child separation." Instead Status Quo Joe said said "let's not change anything, let's trust Trump."
Every time he stops talking midsentence I can't help thinking "even he doesn't think what he is saying is interesting or worth listening to." Why? Because Status Quo Joe doesn't think anything needs to change.
If you don't want change then vote for Status Quo Joe and watch him get torn to shreds like Low Energy Jeb or Lyin' Ted Cruz.
4
@Mr Rogers The current Medicare is not "cheaper." The low rates it pays most providers are possible only because non Medicare beneficiaries, through their insurance companies, pay far higher rates to providers, rates that enable the providers to stay in business. If you had Medicare like I do, you would know this because you would see what those Medicare rates are.
1
@phil
I do have Medicare. When i retired due to ALS my employer's Cobra insurance said if you qualify for Medicare you cannot choose cobra coverage. With als diagnosis Medicare eligibility is automatic.
The subsidies are there to stablize costs and expenditures, as the name of that part of the PPACA says.
Just as Ronald Reagan was dubbed the "Teflon-coated president," the same can be said of Trump. His supporters realize he's a businessman, not an experienced pol coming from elected office (which Reagan was). Despite Trump's many verbal flubs and constant salesman puffery, he's doing things that work in a capitalist country, doing something about illegal immigration, and taking on the "elite" and the PC-leftist Democrats. In other words, things are working.
Trump's backers will just sit back and be entertained by his stand-up comic routine. And it's to Biden's disadvantage that he has to kowtow to the PC extremists obsessed with identity politics who are anything but funny.
11
@Scott
"....things are working " pinpoints the problem.
You're not bothered by human rights violations, children kidnapped, women demeaned, racism, hate speech, obstruction and collusion, collusion with Russia, and on and on.
You've bailed out of society and morality and shame with Donald and that is what's not working.
1
Mr. Bruni, sometimes I wonder if you're not really a Republican clad in Democratic dungarees.
I really didn't need to be reminded that "most of the American presidents who sought re-election since 1900 — including all but George H.W. Bush in the last 35 years — won a second term." Great (not really).
But what always confuses me is the Electoral College element of surprise. I've asked people to explain it to me like I'm a 3rd grader just how that works. If Clinton had nearly 3 MILLION more votes than Trump, how come she lost? Since when should the results and workings of the Electoral College be complicated math multivariable calculus? Every time I hear an explanation, it still makes no sense to me.
What's funny (not really) about the Republicans is that while they will "admit" to foreign interference in American elections, they always state that interference helped or was at the behest of Hillary Clinton. Sure was it was - that's why she lost.
I think it's still too early to determine if this hollow windsock will win a second term. If anything, Clinton losing last time should be a wake up call to all Democrats to get out and vote and to register as many Democrats as possible between now and 14 months from now.
I just refuse to allow myself to become depressed and assume that knucklehead will walk away with another victory come November 2020.
10
What is difficult to understand about the electoral college? Wyoming gets 3 votes for 578,000 people, or one vote per 193,000 people. California gets 55 votes for 40,000,000 people, or one vote per 727,000 people. Each Wyoming voter has the voting power of 3 3/4 California voters. It's as simple as that. Small states, most voting Republican have disproportionate say in the election of the president, and the Constitution was written to facilitate it.
1
I think if he wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote by 5-10 millions people will react badly. I wouldn't be surprise if their is talk of succession in some regions. It is taxation without representation. It is a modern three fifths rule Urban Americans only count a 3/5ths of a rural red voter. A second electoral college victory by Trump would be a disaster for the unity of this country. The GOP would get their Red America but it would be a smaller and much poorer nation. I am sure Biloxi would be a lovely capital.
8
@GUANNA I don't know. A lot of people voted for Trump because they were fed up with Washington. Even people who voted for Bernie or Obama. And a lot of liberals are surrounded by other liberals who thought Trump winning was unthinkable. Well, now Trump won. And supposedly he has a good economy. Remember that W Bush won the popular vote in the second election. A lot of the anti-Trump crowd are moderates. If the Democrats elect someone too moderate and polished, a lot more people might vote for Trump this time to express their disapproval.
1
@GUANNA
Dems should learn to win in red states, and to win the electoral college count. Why not try that?
@Michaela -
Certainly many of the Democratic presidential prospects, and many likely Democratic voters don't believe in all or even most of those things you're so vehemently against.
Consider actively participating in advance of (and of course voting during) the Democratic primary to make your concerns known.
And also consider making a list of all the things the Republicans stand for (and against) and decide if that represents the vision of America you until recently believed in as a family of lifelong Democrats.
It'll take some real contortions to square Trump and Company with anything like historically mainstream democratic values.
Sometimes when citizens get worked up/fearful they revert to the overtly protectionist triumvirate of: "I've got mine (but I'll take some more if you've got it); not in my back yard; and you're not the boss of me".
This reactionary selfishness especially thrills cynical Machiavellian power brokers when it's experienced as "patriotism" or "American Exceptionalism" - the added romantic element nicely greases the skids towards an apathetic culture of complaint, a big win for big power consolidation. You're doing the work for them whilst being tricked into feeling you're a true patriot.
There will be many attempts to scare you into voting for the continued subsidizing of an elite, exclusive, dominant, aggressively self- aggrandizing population.
Don't believe the hype - just say nyet.
5