Let me tell you about living pay check to pay check. My son and his wife just paid for a trip to Switzerland next March, bought a house and a new car but was concerned when my birthday check didn’t arrive on his birthday. He needed it to pay his HOA dues. He is 57 and just got a 30 year mortgage, I retired at 57 and haven’t worked since. And he makes as much money as I ever made.
4
@Rich Murphy
Great comment. I hope the subtlety of the language does not obscure the sharp message of the posting.
1
I get so sick of this statistic" Job Seekers who gave up are getting off the sideline" and other statements that just aren't verified. I recall with disdain, after eight weeks of unemployment in 2008, my weekly payment was cut off. When I would attempt to login and file my job status I would be denied the ability as I was no longer eligible for benefits. How would anyone know my job status or whether I had "Given up?" Know one asked nor cared. Once again, Economics is not a science.
1
Wait until companies like mine are forced to fire began 1 - 5 out of every 100 people, and mark-up our product beyond what American consumers expect and/or are willing to pay for our goods due to Trump’s reckless tariffs and saber-rattling. Let’s see how well Trump’s stewardship of the American economy is then.
Just as this Administration manipulates and suppresses scientific data (re global warming), in time - if it hasn't yet happened - it will do the same for economic data. The media needs to keep an eye open.
1
What are you saying? That the jobs report isn’t true? That the job market is actually tanking? The article presents a bunch of different information.
You’re supposed to read it, digest it, and come up with an opinion. That’s your job as a reader.
Recently I watched a documentary that included an interview with some peasants in a random Russian village. The interview was supposed to be with four babushkas but only two showed up.
When asked to compare life under the Union of Soviet Socialistic Republic versus what is happening now under the present authoritarian but more democratic Russian regime, the two babushkas were unanimous in their response. The people were equal back then but equally poor to eke out a living through collective farming. But there was a lot of comradeship back then and families helped out each other. They could not relocate from their villages since that was against the law.
People are busy with work and some are significantly more affluent. The children of the two babushkas who did not show up are successful businessmen in Moscow and they bought out half the old village, a cause of resentment for the old-timers.
The economic news in the US continue to be good and consistent all the way across. The media report such good news grudgingly with hedging phrases like “Even with the jobless rate now at a half-century low, the expansion remains uneven, and many Americans who are employed say they lack economic security and stability.”
The hidden message strained out of the article is that to correct the situation, elect a new President in 2020.
The babushkas and dedushkas of the Democratic presidential wannabes want a USSR type equality guaranteeing misery for all and benefits for few. Sad.
1
Your headline says
‘The U.S. Added 164,000 Jobs in July. Here’s the Takeaway’
I don’t want to nitpick but
I read the entire article and it never said how many jobs the U.S. took away!
I wish someone there would pay more attention to these details.
July’s American Job Shortage Number (AJSN) stayed almost the same with this morning’s data. How did we do otherwise? What’s the bottom line? See http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2019/08/july-employment-data-almost-all.html.
All this winning!! No Pres Trump. I’m not yet tired of all this winning!!
The Dems candidates inspire NOBODY. Socialist wanna be losers. America does not want to be like Venezuela.
Trump2020
5
This has nothing to do with Trump at all.
2
@Barbara Gibbes. Economy is adding fewer jobs than under Obama’s last term. Second, not sure what socialism means to you. Single payer health care? You mean like Canada perhaps? No one other than Trump is saying Venezuela.
1
The biggest threat to 2020 candidates: This economy keeps roaring.
Krugman assured us the economy is done after Trump and won a 'fake news' award for it.
I have been reading in the NYT for most of Trump's presidency that the economy is a few months from drowning, and only get market updates when the S&P is down. Warren keeps the narrative alive that we are ripe for a downturn, but no one can successfully guess the market.
Luckily, I do not trade off their news or I'd miss my 33.9% YTD portfolio increase.
23
@Matt
He later retracted...after he was proven wrong. Whoops, stock market started to skyrocket, business and consumer confidence through the roof etc. etc. I'm sure it had nothing to do with Trump notwithstanding the fact that it immediately happened right after he won that historic victory.
3
Krugman also said that he’d clearly been stupid and explained why, something Trumpists might try just for laughs sometime.
And this lates jobs report shows “cooling,” but still okay economy, not a “roaring,” one, not least because Trump still hasn’t come up to Obama’s best jobs figures. And because of the various warning signs.
Gee, why is that? Gee, we were promosed far, far more. Why, growth came in at half what Trump swore he’d reach.
Why, it’s like the guy makes stuff up, and you lot pretend it came true. Or are we blaming the Fed again this week?
12
@Scott
You mistake the market, and the good fortune of the 1%, for the economy. While the market has soared, mostly, and the wealth of the wealthy increased very significantly, the majority of Americans struggle. Almost half are a single pay check from calamity. 0ver one fifth of Americans live below the poverty line and that includes over 12 million children. So please, keep your glee over your massive portfolio gains to yourself. Or better yet, keep shouting them at the top of your lungs. Perhaps then the majority of the suckers who comprise the “base” might finally see how they have been played.
9
I’m struck that we don’t control for the size of the economy when reporting monthly jobs numbers. I am even more concerned that media reports don’t correct for this obviously inflated number. Clearly, 130,000 jobs in 2019 is not the same as 130,000 jobs in 2010 or 1990. If we control for the increasing size of the economy our current job growth rate is about half of what it was in 2010 and a quarter of what it was in the 1990s. This may help to explain, in part, why growth is sluggish despite “good jobs reports.”
1
Deduct over 3K layoffs at Lowes. Oops!
Lowes is laying off, or forcing out thru schedule changes over 3K employees, and less then half will be rehired, or replaced. Marvin Ellisons lies when he says these layoffs are to put more people on the sales floor to help customers. These staffers were already often on the sales floor, and often did help customers.
And a well assembled product by a tenured, dedicated employee is serving the customers!
Ellison and his Home Depot comrades, are gonna burn Lowes up trying to mimic Home Depot, and chase them down, They are so drunk on the idea that they can catch HD, and pass HD, its akin to those claiming coal is gonna make a comeback.
Lowes will never beat Home Depot. Ever! But it can be the best Lowes ever, if these narcissists in the Exec suites had a new idea, that isnt out of the 80s. Beholden to the Board, they are gonna make Lowes nothing but a Home Depot lite. Really lite. And it wont be untill the edges are truly fried and flaking off, and threatening the center that the Board and stockholders wake up.
Lowes needs to be better at being Lowes. Being their own Brand, and not worried that HD is and always will beat them. Beat them when it comes to Pro sales and pro services. And better quality products for the Pros, and true DIYers.
Pros knows Lowes is not where you go for quality bulk. Its where you send the homeowners to look at stuff, and buy accents for their homes.
Oh please, some of these employers who “cant find qualified workers “ need to get over themselves and learn how to compete for workers again. I saw an ad on one of the job search websites recently for an office manager asking for a laundry list of skills and experience. The salary: minimum wage. Also, the hours were just under full time so that they can avoid paying benefits. Three weeks later and they are still advertising for that open position.
6
Didn't get laid of after 18 years with the Company as a Senior Manager....offered a voluntary "Package" to leave...took it so I wouldn't get laid off with nothing. I'm not the only one going in this round. The amount of institutional knowledge leaving my small company is staggering.
3
Trillions of dollars were giving to the rich and corporations with the promise of creating more jobs for all. There has not been, according to the chart provided, a substantial increase in employment with most new jobs being part time with no benefits; the working poor.
The rich kept their new found wealth (greed is good) and celebrated by buying bigger and faster jets and yachts while corporations bought back their own stock and in some instances laid off employees.
Trickle-down economics only favor the rich and the corporations. When will middle class Americans stop believing this lie?
5
Jobs numbers are a lagging indicator and the warnings are in the downward revisions.
The manufacturing slowdown is also in full swing with hiring plateaued there. Travel and hospitality are flat because of currency fluctuation and tariffs plus an unfriendly face on the nation placed there by Trump. Auto sales down. Layoffs in the sector.
Debt, both corporate and personal is at new highs indicating little flexibility in cash flow for consumers and business. Just a slight slowdown results in a slide that is hard to stop.
Yet we have in Trump and his "advisers" slinging tariffs around like they will solve all problems when in fact the actions they take are the blows to the supports of our economy.
2
I want to know what type of jobs ha e been added. Can someone tell me? Are they full time? Do they come with benefits? How many are taken by women and minorities?
OR
Are they part time jobs at malls and fast food joints? Temp jobs at tech industries?
I keep hearing about more jobs and better economy. And I also am hearing about homeless people and plants still closing. So what gives?
6
Washington Post in 2017 compiled a list of 19 times when the current president claimed the jobs report was total fiction and lies. The formula determining the job numbers hasn't been changed. And the numbers are still the result of efforts put into place during the Obama Administration.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/19-times-trump-called-the-jobs-numbers-fake-before-they-made-him-look-good/?utm_term=.e70e87f83a23
4
@Vanessa Hall. Yep, the same metrology was flawed under Obama, but wonderful under Trump. Go figure
Forbes: "Trump Is Falling Almost 1 Million Jobs Short Vs. Obama"
Pathetic, considering the budget deficit has risen nearly 30% since Obama left
1
No mention of the downward revisions here
Last month, the Times gushed over the numbers, but now that they have been revised to levels below an average Obama 2nd term level, did the Times issue a retraction ?
No. Of course they didn't.
2
All because of Trump. No doubt. The Dems did not and could not do this. They don't know how.
Read Forbes
Those 164,00 added jobs added appear to rest on a rapidly sinking foundation.
Only 123,000 jobs were added in June after after subtracting downward revisions to May and June totaling 41,000 jobs.
June's estimate of job growth was revised downward this month by 31,000 to 193,000 jobs from the original estimate of 224,000.
May's number was revised downward this month by 10,000 from 72,000 jobs to 62,000 (which is actually 13,000 less than originally estimated).
Moreover, April jobs growth had been revised to 216,000 vs the original estimate of 263,000, a difference of 47,000.
March has been revised down to 153,000 jobs added vs the original estimate of 196,000, a difference of 43,000.
Those downward revisions (43,000 for March, 47,000 for April, 13,000 for May, and 31,000 for June) add to 134,000.
Who wants to bet that July's estimate won't be revised downward as well, providing an easier comparison for August when it is reported?
2
The real creation of truly incremental jobs adding to the intrinsic value of our economy is really marginal
The jobs Trump ad the Republicans claim they are creating are in fact mainly created by a demographic shift , people retiring at the rate of 10000 a day and we are barely able to replace them.
Job vacancies are now over 7 million , unemployed some 6 million. The problem is that those 6 million do not have the skills or are in the right place to fill those jobs.
Interest rate decrease will not solve this problem , throwing money at the problem through tax cuts will not help.
Flawed “ policies” from Trump and our close to a trillion Dollar debt are destroying our future and current needs , infrastructure, vocational training , increasing health care costs exacerbated by an ageing ( fastest growing sector health care) .
All America young and old must get out to vote in 2020 to stop this total destruction of our future because of the insatiable greed of Trump and his cronies
9
The trucking industry was ruined during Obama last term in office.Rates had dropped so low companies and drivers couldn't survive.When you add regulated 14 hr. work days and often living in a truck 24/7 for a week or more at a time,that thousand dollar per week maybe ,gross loses the attraction. There's mandatory random drug testing so with legal dope now drivers are in high demand .Still wages in trucking have increased slightly but not nearly enough to compensate for the disaster in trucking that happened under Obama.Industry ,in energy sectors and steel has returned but the pay hasn't gone to Drivers,they're the last on the list and often ,they do the most.
What disaster? Regulations?
Under Bill Clinton , the economy was robust and is the main reason why his approval ratings improved throughout his 8 years in office, eve after impeachment.
But under Trump, Democrats have changed their tune, now the liberal mantra is "not everyone is benefiting from this economy"...it's also the reason why liberals only discover the problem of homelessness under republican administrations.
The macro-economy is never the same as the micro-economy. While wage growth is decent compared to inflation & the "uneployment rate" (rated as people who are "looking for a job") is good, the overall % of employed people is very low. Couple this with housing affordability & the % of people who are scraping by in low wage jobs that have 0 savings & you wiind up with the inequality that plagues the U.S.
2
The monthly change in jobs is suspiciously volatile, which leads me to think the numbers are manufactured to make the Trump administration look good. What information is being hidden from readers? Are these actually second or third jobs for people who can’t afford to live on only one paycheck?
6
@Christine M.
No it isn't. The unemployment rate pre-2008 recession was 71.78%.
We are currently at 71.20%. We are simple recovering what once was.
Do some research
(https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM64TTUSM156S)
@DR. Do you mean the participation rate? And aren’t these the same numbers Trump said were crooked and the real unemployment rate was much higher? He cannot have it both ways.
Thank you, President Obama.
82
@DanM Completely agree. Just finished a renovation and the need for qualified workers in all the trades is overwhelming. I had a man and his teen nephews re-glaze two tubs for me last week. He is a Salvadoran immigrant and told me he told the boys they had to go to college. I gave him my spiel about the opportunities in the trades, but I'm sure he thought I was the old white woman trying to keep them down. He should be talking to the owners of the plumbing and heating/air conditioning companies worried about going out of business because they can't find workers or the college graduate baristas at Starbucks.
I began working in higher education in the early 80's and can't remember when young people became brainwashed to believe they had to go to college to be valued. What I've seen would surprise most people. At one college, admissions people were sent to welfare offices because poor students were desirable because they qualified for more federal aid. One reason there is less college debt in European countries is because there are fewer students matriculating, and they make excellent use of work/study. With the coming "baby bust," it will be interesting to see if the colleges lower their standards again or reduce their enrollments. Although they are considered non-profits, I consider them much like the military/industrial complex President Eisenhower warned us about. I really wish I had a master plumber or electrician in the family.
3
164,000 jobs added?
How many new workers entered the job market? If we added 250,000 new workers applying for 164,000 new jobs we're in trouble- that is not a healthy economy.
I've always had trouble with the unemployment rates as well since that is a measure of those seeking unemployment benefits. I don't think it includes those unable to work and those who have lost benefits or have given up looking for work. If those Americans were included the unemployment rate would be much higher.
4
@Patrick
RE: new workers
Most economists agree that due to population growth we add about 100,000 potential workers per month. As the article points out, we need to create jobs at about that rate to sustain the current unemployment rate.
Under Obama's second term the economy added an average of 216k jobs/month. Under Trump's first two years that dropped to 198k/month. This year through seven months that number has been cut in half to 96k/month.
That in turn means that, if the economy does not improve in the coming months, we will see the unemployment rate going up again.
6
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD: What do all these new jobs pay? What is the median wage of these new jobs? What is the percentage of these new jobs that are above the minimum wage?
7
@David Terry
Nice try.
Gotta turn good news into bad news until we have another Dem in the White House.
1
Obama increased our deficit more than all the previous Presidents combined.
3
@Dr. John
True. In return he gave us the first 121 month long economic expansion, 106 consecutive months of jobs growth, and 127 consecutive months without a Fed Rate reduction. He took U3 from 10.0% to 4.7% (one point higher than today) and U6 17.1% to 9.2% (two points above now). He saved much of the banking and auto industries from financial collapse, doubled oil production, and tripled the DJIA.
Now, Doc, my question to you is, given the same starting point -- the worst recession in history -- to start with, what exactly would you have done to heal an economy on the brink of a depression?
13
@Dr. John
Thanks for the non-sequitur doc.
2
@Dr. John
Really? Why don’t you help us all understand and while you are doing that, please provide us the facts and where you are getting them.
2
Plenty of work. If you want to work.
4
yeah people took more low paying gigs
wake me up when salaries go up more than a few cents
8
I recall comments that jobs created under Obama were not "good" jobs, i.e. service sector, low wage, part time, etc.
Anyone know how jobs created during the Trump administration compare to jobs created under Obama?
6
Trump is great for stocks owned by the rich. you borrow vst quantities of money and use it to cut corporate taxes Taht pumps the stock market which is all the Trumpies her care about. Privatize the profits and socialize thw cost.
3
Definition of insanity, voting for anyone besides Trump. This guy gets it.
1
As other perceptive people are commenting here, the devil remains in the details. Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? That example also pertains to the deficit and the quality of those wonderful jobs. Yes, having a job is better than not, but what kind? And how do maybe many of these jobs reflect our culture nowadays? If many of these jobs are not even temps but paying not more than minimum wage (poverty wage) and with no benefits, then it seems like a slave-like workforce. Then there is the factor of not even counting unemployed people who've given up looking for work. I'm curious about searching for that statistic. Lastly, there's the old, stupidly simplistic point about crediting or blaming a president for the ongoing state of the economy. Of course, un-apologetically, I'm looking into those devilish details because I never want unnecessarily to give another devil his due. You know who.
2
When, oh, when are we going to stop propping up these meaningless, manufactured employment data? What kind of jobs, how much do they pay, are they temporary or contract...? Are you counting part-time employees in your unemployment data? What about people who have stopped looking? Details and context matter. Please, journalists, do a better job!
2
The Nat Debt just ballooned AGAIN
3
The Democrats aren't even pushing Jobs, they just want to cut everybody a check for doing nothing. Oh, and free school and healthcare on top of that. And you don't even have to be a citizen! Can you say Venezuela?
GOP would have excoriated Obama for only creating 164,000 new jobs per month. Yet naive Trumpists continue to praise him. And, by the way, I see that despite the Fed easing the exchange rate, the S & P has dropped another percentage point today in addition to the full point it dropped yesterday.
5
Nonsense.
The U. S. aka government didn't add any jobs.
American private business and industry added jobs.
Although you can't tell where Trump Mar-a-Lago ends and Trump White House begins, the Trump Organization is clearly not focused on MAGA.
Thankully and blessfully and blissfully Trump is not America's CEO and COO.
1
I love the way NYTimes hypes the modest job growth a triumph of Trumponomics without directly saying it in plain English for everyone to read. This is a very subtle but dangerous endorsement of Trumponomics (that Paul Krugman has criticized in his column today). Giving this job report a banner headline while concealing the fact that most of these jobs are in service industry (also people taking two or three jobs to run their families) and manufacturing jobs have been in a consistent decline, it creates a false impression for the gullibles, ie., Independents, that Trump is doing well for the country. Please stop falsely advertising and tooting an economy that hasn’t worked for the majority of the Americans, who don’t have $800 in case of an emergency.
7
The key to having a well paying job is to be educated/trained in a field you have interest and pays well. Education/training is vital. It's as simple as that, people have to do what it takes to make sure they accomplish that goal. If I can do it anyone one can.
3
You might add: being willing and able to show up on time, with energy and a positive attitude. As an employer, I've seen dozens of new hires who lack that most basic ability.
1
I never understand why articles on the unemployment number don't give more attention to the prior months' revisions. This month, the net gain over the last estimated level of employment is 123,000, not 164,000, including the downward revisions to May and June. I don't think that when economists forecast a jobs number that they have assumed any direction for prior month revisions, so the number including revisions is more meaningful.
In Obama's last 31 months in office the economy added 6,881,000 jobs.
In Trump's first 31 months in office the economy added 5,912,000 jobs.
That is a 14.1% drop in jobs growth under Trump.
In 2018 Trump averaged 214k jobs added per month.
In 2019 that has been more than cut in half to 96k per month.
Part of that drastic drop may be the result of the “full employment” effect. However, that effect was in place in 2016-2018. A more likely cause for this precipitous drop would be Trump’s trade war against the world. He has personally placed tariffs on absolutely everybody outside the US. That, of course, is an enormous tax increase on America; and, as is the received wisdom of all conservatives, taxes depress the economy.
3
And do NOT buy into the lie that employers cannot find qualified American employees! What they are really saying is they never intended to fill new job postings — they do NOT want to find qualified American employees because they aren’t really serious about hiring or creating new jobs. But the few employers who are actually hiring simply don’t living wages and benefits... because that would chip into their millions for their billionaire CEOs and shareholders.
9
@Misplaced Modifier
I scan employment sites to see just what types of jobs are being offered and in my humble opinion, these companies are looking for “the perfect person” who does not truly exist. Then, what they seem to b offering is the same old same old week after week, month after month all not paying squat. The sectors that always seem to be hiring are looking for individuals where there are no benefits offered and the wages cannot sustain the cost of living.
I agree, they do not want to hire.
4
@KHW: BINGO.
They advertise a job that a jack-of-all trades needs to have experience and they want to pay peanuts.
And don't discount the ploy of advertising jobs that do not exist in order to qualify for the H1-B visa categories and others where the employer has to submit evidence of not being able to find native American workers who can do the job.
The economy's "underpinnings" are only as strong as the minimum wage - which is typical pay for large swaths of American workers. That these typical wages keep a large percentage of the population working 2 jobs while taking government assistance is a sign that the economy is NOT good.
5
What kind of jobs were added . I live probably seasonal and service industry jobs .. and they don't pay the bills nor do they allow for the worker to live close to town.
5
@Gabriele B
How many manufacturing jobs did Obama create?
1
@Dr. John
Really? With what Obama was left with to start his administration manufacturing was non-existing due to the Great Recession. That said, he was able to save our auto industry while stabilizing both the financial and housing sectors. Try taking some of your own medicine.
@Dr. John: We get it: you hate Obama.
We're talking about what constitutes real JOBS that pay living wages.
But if your I-Hate-Obama quilt keeps you warm, you do.
We've been asking and proposing the SAME kind of context-for-the-numbers during the Obama years. You just missed out on those conversations.(◔_◔)
I assume the number of individuals entering the underground economy is not likely to amount to a significant amount, but I am curious to know if it has grown or eased?
This past year I have been solicited by more traveling service type individuals in plain work trucks that remain incognito when I requested their information to consider them in the future.
1
On surface these numbers are encouraging, but like others, I wonder how many are full time, livable wage with benefits. I can say as an almost 50-year-old who is facing a possible job phase-out next year, I've started exploring what's out there. Based on job listings I see, to stay in my field I may have to quickly pick up another software skill or two just to make half what I currently make. I was prepared to take a hit, but the difference is shocking. I wonder how many others are already living that reality. This report may be good, or it may be spin. Numbers alone don't tell.
9
Good news. Regardless of administrations, welcome this trend going in the right direction. And this trend/trajectory dates really from 2014 or earlier. What is significant is that the U-6 rate did drop to 7.0, the decline of which has been more of a phenomenon of the past couple of years. Last year, U-6 was at 7.9 ... source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
U-6 is defined as "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force" ...
It's obvious that the baby boomers who are retiring everywhere are not included in any of these calculations.
Talk about making older people invisible.
1
Just charge it to the national debt and American Taxpayer Express card.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the annual Trump deficit — the shortfall of federal revenue compared with spending in a given fiscal year — will soon push past $1 trillion annually.
Trump's 2018 budget deficit was the largest since 2012, when the US was still dealing with recovery from the Bush-Cheney Depression.
Based on the CBO's projections, Trump will have accumulated $3.73 trillion in new debt by the end of the 2020 fiscal year.
And by the end of fiscal 2024, the the theoretical last year of Trump's second term if he wins reelection, the total debt added by Trump is projected to come in at $8.78 trillion.
When a country is in a growth period, it's supposed to pay down the debt, not make it explode.
Trump's debt-fueled negligent economy is setting up the USA for a debt-laden economic disaster.
The King of Bankruptc and his Snake Oilonomics and $22 trillion in debt peddles his fraudulent wares.
What a reckless human being and over-mortgaged country.
134
@Socrates. What! You forgot to mention his Party of Enablers and Liars who sell the “watch out for debt” baloney before election, and after election: “debt doesn’t matter.”
25
@Socrates You forgot to mention the cost of the trade war that we can not win. Trump is bringing down single handedly to global economy. That is an "accomplishment" unmatched by any other president. Hopefully the US is not bankruptcy #8 on Trumps list of major accomplishments.
8
@Socrates
Such a perfect example of how people only talk about the deficit when they want to complain about the other guy's policies. I can't tell you whether we ought to be running the deficit we run or whether we instead should be running a surplus for example. I do know that Dems (the party you presumably support) want to literally start wiping out a trillion dollars in student debt. Those of us who pays ours off now get a surprise additional bill known as the other guy's debt. And while we're at it, let's regulate the heck out of our booming energy economy; the shining star of our economy. Yeah, I know, the world's coming to an end if we don't do the new green deal right away. I'll see ya there...
Even an amoeba is smart enough to artificially extend an economic cycle by piling unproductive trillions onto the national credit card. By putting most of that cash into the pockets of the already rich instead of investing it in productive projects like infrastructure and children’s education, Trump and his GOP greed squad have squandered most of any remaining national credit limit. As if that isn’t enough, jawboning the fed into using up its safety margin to goose an artificially stratospheric stock market just escalates the risk of another stellar crash. The economic rubber band is being stretched more tightly than it ever has. It is no longer a question of whether it will snap, but when.
79
@AndyW. And how should we view our fellow voters whose lack of intelligence in certain states put these crooks and destroyers into office?
5
@AndyW
It's always a question of when. Good times don't last forever.
I'm pretty sure no amoeba is smart enough to artificially extend economic cycles.
Also, this is not an artificial extension. This is the real deal. Thank you Mr. President of all Americans (even those who don't realize it)!
@Bob
Bob, Bob come on now. Good times do not last forever and so far, I would not call these times that good. I assume you believe what the carpetbagger has been selling and that your party (GOP) really cares about debt laden policies.
Credit card debt is increasing as is the late payments by individuals while car purchases are stagnant as well.
Keep drinking the Kool-Aid as the artificial good times party will soon be ending for us.
Thank you, President Obama!
17
Our economic system, built upon anti-realism and usury, deserves nothing less than to fail spectacularly.
14
@Jack S.
For those of us who have a vested income in the success of the US, we disagree. We want success.
I can't say much for someone who wants the US to fail.
21
@Sendero Caribe
You miss the nuance of my comment: I do not wish for the United States to fail. I love my country. But in charging interest on non-recourse loans, (credit cards, student loans, etc.), we have built up a system that deserves to crash.
These loans aren't secured by anything: the wealth is fake. And lenders can come after the borrower personally; it is modern-day slavery.
I can't say much for someone who refuses to see the insanity in this.
20
There was no nuance in your comment
4
Every Democratic ad on the economy should show two things: A graph that shows Trump is simply riding the trend Obama created when he saved the economy from disaster. And vignettes of the kind of workers that this economy has too many of: low wage, no benefits, temporary or concract, grunt work with little or no chance for advancement. Let America see the true picture.
4
At this point, how do we know what's real and what is a lie? Did someone in Trump's camp or the Russians tamper with this data? In a Democracy like ours everything is based on trust, but mine is vanishing fast. I find myself questioning any Republican favored report because it is likely to be untrue. Who is now running the department that produces job data? In the end, it is likely to be Trump and his appointees.
4
Jobs rate pretty much steady, economy doing great for the rich Americans that has way beyond their needs yet we have a tremendous federal deficit, enormous tax cuts for the rich and corporations, myriad of environmental problems, poor infrastructure, expensive health heath care and college tuition, threats to entitlement programs and I’ll stop there. The government and media paint a rosy picture about jobs and economics in the U.S. while many average Americans are working multiple jobs, earning $10 or less with zero benefits and living paycheck to paycheck. We have all of these problems and Trump still finds a lot of time to take credit, play golf and tweet but fails to address the significant hardships faced by the average working American, elderly and the sick.
69
@A.A.F. So, do you think the Midwest and south will wake up before or after they vote?
8
@B. Rothman,
As a Southerner in Tennessee, we are doing quit well here. I would contend that much of economic despair in the inner cities of urban America, you neck of the woods. Cheers!
@Southern Boy Since when are "skilled labor" jobs paying $20 hr or less? That may be OK in Tennessee, but not in CA
The important facts are not noted in this article: what is the average hourly rate and do these workers get good health insurance. Are they contract workers, salaried workers, temporary workers? Are they unionized? Are they working hours they are not getting paid for. The employment statistics in the article do not mention any of these vital factors. Therefore it is meaningless.
5
The economy is doing well DESPITE Trump's Tariffs. Wage increases are close to inflation, but are not enough to overcome long term loss in buying power. To be sure, the economy is working well for some, and finally we hear news that some companies, in competition for workers, are willing to train workers (instead of waiting for those already qualified to fall from the sky). It is a mixed bag.
1
Employers are not "creating jobs." Neither are the wealthy, tax cuts nor the President. Who is "creating jobs?" Consumers, without demand for goods and services growing beyond the capacity of the current staff, no business owner creates jobs.
Every time the economy dips and unemployment grows, everyone blames diminished demand and the lack of consumer spending. Yet, when there is an uptick, it is time to praise corporate leaders, tax cuts, wealthy individuals and the President.
It is time to give the consumer credit for creating jobs. To constantly reward those not responsible is to continue the basic problem with the economy - we reward and praise the wrong people.
More often than not, the people that we reward make some really terrible decisions that cause consumers to stop spending and then blame the workers for the downturn, that leads to layoffs and bonus payments for the executives because they had to make the "hard decision" to have layoffs. Even though they made the decisions that led to customers going elsewhere or not spending at all.
Consumers, and only consumers, create jobs. Ask any service person who depends on happy customer to keep their job. Make customers unhappy and soon you are unemployed.
6
Let’s be clear and real: The jobs created are not high paying permanent jobs with benefits. Like the entire economy, the jobs are minimum wage, part-time or temporary - all insecure.
11
A very positive outlook on the economy. That helps expain why everone is so happy and content these days.
My inner Diogenes is stirring, so I’ll be the first one to the horrible cynic when it comes to these numbers.
Business owners complaining about ‘not being able to find skilled workers’ is code for not being able to find *cheap enough workers* to underpay, i.e. EXPLOIT, versus what the market pay is demanding. I don’t feel sorry for people who are wanting to hold out on exploiting the hours of someone else’s life. You don’t have a constitutionally-guaranteed right to run a business if it means you have to exploit workers. I don't get to negotiate the price of the hamburger I'm buying at your establishment; the same should be for labor.
Secondly, on the jobs numbers: I think we have to permanently retire the idea that a gross job number is a fair and accurate measurement of labor’s health. There are far too many ways of gaming these numbers, too numerous to list here. I’m more concerned with people earning living wages with medical, dental and retirement benefits than how many “McJobs” were created.
Let's measure how many of these jobs across industries are living wage jobs vs. non-living wage jobs and by age groups as well as those who are head of households versus members of households earning wages, and we'll get a more accurate picture of the health of the economy.
62
@Lmca Well, U-6 has been declining, went from 7.9% from July of 2018 to 7.0% this July.
1
@Michael Dunne: You show you really didn't read the comment. But thanks for throwing out numbers.
1
@Lmcai agree. Funny how healthcare always seems to add jobs yet, those jobs are usually low paid workers without many benefits if at all and part-time. Being a professional in healthcare myself for over thirty years I see the positions advertised for and filled. Then, nursing positions are short cutter by staff numbers with those on the front lines working with much less help from their professional, colleagues while having many forced to work OT adding up to 12-14+ hours per shift.
2
Thank you, President Trump!
5
Whatever, that ain't nothing. It is simply more low-paying, mediocre jobs. As long as Republicans delude themselves that their savior dictator in chief is always right (because he is white and racist)...whatever, America.
9
@Mogwai
Wrong! YoY wage growth consistently higher than it was during essentially the entire Obama administration (and Obama presided over an economic recovery when you'd expect growth to be through the stratosphere)...
What a wicked web we weave - Can't find workers, but don't want immigrants- !!??
7
@Graham Smith Want immigrants, just legal ones as compared to law breakers.
1
@Graham Smith That is stupid. Change out ILLEGAL immigrant for IMMIGRANT and, if you are clever enough, you can see the democrats lie on this issue. Don't want ILLEGAL immigrants. For every one who might be cutting your grass, there are another 3 who are selling your drugs, putting their children in the schools your taxes subsidize and they do not, getting emergency care at hospitals while you (or your insurance) have to pay full tab. Driving without license or insurance and expecting you to pay the bill if there is an accident...etc.
1
@Graham Smith,
We do want migrants. Migrants with skills. Thank you.
1
Lots of big corporations are cutting thousands of jobs. Job loss numbers are increasing every month. Those who are manipulating the stock market, and profiting from it, don't want you to understand the implications. We're on the edge of something big, and I don't think it's going to be good. Strap yourselves in.
12
One thing for certain is that Donald J. Trump knows less about the economy than anyone else, bar none. Anyone who takes advice from this fraud will be doomed to suffer the consequences. Next month we will see how Trump's "Tarrifs/Trade Wars helped the economy. Tune in to this soap opera again on Sep 1. The Fed should just do what it was trained to do and, above all, not get sidetracked by the stable genius in the Oval Office.
7
Still headed for a recession.
5
Job? Try being a middle aged educated man with epilepsy. There are no jobs. There’s not even SS Disability. Jobs!
5
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 157,288,000 individuals are participating in the American labor force, the most ever recorded in the history of our blessed nation. And it is not a coincidence that this happening during the presidency of Donald J. Trump, one of the greatest businessmen in the nation’s history. Unlike his predecessor, Trump inspires Americans to work or to seek work. He is the embodiment of hard work and its rewards. The radical left who hate American capitalism, if not nation itself, cannot stand the fact the nation’s economy is doing well; they want it to fail so that they can impose their Marxist-Socialist agenda and enrich themselves at the expense of the American worker. But as long as Donald J. Trump is the President of the United States of America that will never happen. Too bad he can’t be the president for life, but he will be for as long as the Constitution allows. Thank you.
4
Dear President Trump,
Thank you, Thank you, Thank you.
Please stay the course. Do not listen to the America Haters. We need you to protect this country from the forces that would weaken this country past the point of no return. Remember the line from the Joni Mitchell song Big Yellow Taxi:
“You Don’t Know What You Got Till it’s Gone.”
We need to win the trade war with China. This may be the last opportunity to stop China and Globalists.
We thank you on behalf of all Americans, even those who suffer from TDS and feel compelled to hate you just because they are told to hate you. You are leader, and you need to lead the people like Moses and other great leaders have in times of trouble. Don’t be swayed by the nay-sayers. Forgive them, for they know not what they do.
4
@Jam77 No one appreciates satire more than me. Well done. Especially liked the Moses reference.
12
@RNS
Yes, excellent satire. I thought the oblique reference to Jesus with the "forgive them, for they know not what they do" bit was especially good. Is Trump going to climb up on a cross fairly soon?
4
@RNS
Not satire. Just some excellent and very sage advice!
I love the quote about Trump shooting himself in the foot just to get another dose of morphine. Perfectly captures his short-sighted and bizarrely warped view of the economy.
8
So many commenters fixating on and grasping to any potential negative implication of the job report , and trying to tie it to Trump. Can you not see how blatantly partisan you are all? An identical report 4 years ago and you’d all be celebrating. Trumps not the only one obsessed with winning, you all are too.
9
Congratulations to the honest, hardworking American worker! See what can happen to wages an opportunity for honest Americans when job-taking, any pay is okayillegal immigrants are kept at bay.
1
Is Trump still relevant for 2020 and beyond? Ask "Moscow Mitch".
4
Is working two jobs for minimum wage a success story? Wake up!
10
Well, here's to the Comrade head of state using his Wharton business school education in economics to destroy the stock market, the farmers, the middle class, etc, etc with these tariffs.
4
The calm before the storm. The dark blackish clouds can be seen in the distance, and with the current ship Captain we have a better chance of sailing straight into the storm than returning safe to port.
4
An excellent overview piece on the U.S. economy. Written by a journalist with excellent sources and a knack for context. Thank you!
3
Can we trust these numbers? How do we know the administration isn't doctoring these? I no longer trust anything this government says/does.
8
Before Trump 164,000 was a weak jobs number. Now apparently it’s a great number. Itis however too few jobs to keep pace with population growth and implies an uptick in unemployment unless the labor participation rate falls to match.
5
I wonder how many of the 164,000 jobs added last month even paid a living wage and did any include health insurance and benefits? It's irrelevant how many jobs are created if they are $10/hr no benefit jobs.
22
@Jacquie Yeah but if they employ no-skills people, what is the problem?
The reference here comparing our economy to a narcotics user is telling. The tax cut for Trump's tax cut for the rich and to overstiimulate our economy is exactly what Trump's policies are about. Don't we have enough problems with opioid addiction?
1
I am not an economist, but I look at trends and for the last year the job numbers each month have been declining, also auto dealers have announced they are stuck with thousands and thousands of 18,19 and won't be ordering many new models until the backlog is gone. Harley motorcycles you know the ones that Trump rides down, Caterpillar sales down, Boeing becoming a basket case biggest loss in their history and what seems to be missed is the impact on GE financial services, ten year bonds way below into the danger territory, check out the coal mines that have closed across the country and how less mines and workers today than when Trump told how they would grow. Oil fracking companies going belly up, the negative list is endless and wage growth has not grown in the last year. I guess making a big $10 an hour is what one cannot support a family on that wage. Housing is down, the list is endless and not to be negative, but that is the trend. People are staying in the middle class by taking out loans or using one credit card to make the min. payment on another. Yes, the Fed cut the rate on orders from Trump, but the average American is already in debt over their eyeballs. Thanks to Trump and the tariffs the world economy is slowing and wait until Oct 31st in the UK when Boris down to 1 seat crashes out. Trumps tariffs are not working anyway China has moved manufacturing to Vietnam in a big way. Stock market overvalued. Read a good book on the crash of 1929. Jim Trautman
15
@trautman Yes the Trump/Republican policies will tank the economy just as the Bush 2/Republican Congress did. Let's just hope the crash happens before Nov 2020. so Elizabeth Warren and/or Bernie Sanders can ride in and clean up Trump/McConnell's mess just as Barack Obama did in 2008-09.
4
Another downward revision, this time in the last month's jobs number? It seems that Trump era economic figures always go through downward revisions and never an upward one. Trump gets to boast the inflated numbers and then not a pip squeak about the revision later.
All coincidence, I'm sure. Or maybe Wilbur Ross is up to something. I know that's cynical, but we have a conman in the white house stuffing the government with his lackeys in an unprecedented rate.
10
The reference here comparing our economy to a narcotics user is telling. The tax cut for Trump's tax cut for the rich and to overstiimulate our economy is exactly what Trump's policies are abpit. Dom't we have enough problems with opioid addiction?
3
The reference here comparing our economy to a narcotics user is telling. The tax cut for Trump's tax cut for the rich and to overstiimulate our economy is exactly what Trump's policies are abpit. Dom't we have enough problems with opioid addiction?
1
Again with the fraudulent term “jobs” how many of these “jobs” offer healthcare? A living wage? Retirement benefits? How many go to minorities? Keep pushing these false reports that keep the oligarchy in power that enslaves and abuses the work force. Break labor unions. And keep minions working like dogs for precious little in factories of inhuman conditions like Amazon.
Take your new “job”added reports and shove it.
15
I am fed up with the stunningly USA-centric discussion. Canada, with its “socialist” government, added 400,000 jobs last year. Adjusted for our population being one tenth that’s of the USA, that’s like 4 million in the USA. Trump has seen only a little over 2 million in that time.
How about that as a Democrat talking point?
41
Normally at any announcement good economic news I would say “thank you, Barack Obama.” But I can’t now lest I dare incur the wrath of far left progressives. Strange days for Democrats, these days.
3
@John Doe Read it again, it's not really good economic news, except from a trump centric view.
4
Reality Check 400000 baby bombers retire every month from jobs pay living wage anown health care thru employers for there familys. The jobs added mostly tempory positions an have zero health care if they do dedcutable is waste to pay for health care scam. We still see empty corperate buildings here in rochester ny once employed1.5 million workers use to be center of manufactoring an tech in usa. All gone to china.
6
Employment rates are a very weak indicator of the strength and nature of the human condition. That is, how secure do people feel in life, what are their opportunities for growth in the realm of intellectual and emotional, educational and social life. How will they be able to feel secure in their jobs, their access to good health and be motivated to interact peacefully and with compassion toward their neighbors and others in general. Do they feel their government(s), their democracy has authentic desires to create equal opportunity for all and controls corruption in government such that elite groups control critical events in politics and the economy.
July Job Report?
Do you have any measures on the other indicators I noted above?
7
Employers are finding it difficult to find reliable workers because so many in the silicon generation are too lazy to putdown their phones and do anything physical. The NYS police (Troopers) were forced to go to two year recruitment cycles (instead of four) because of the scarcity of applicants. This is a job that has physical demands that are apparently a bit too much for a state full of young gamers and scrollers, despite the remarkably high starting pay and benefits.
4
@rab The same is true here in flyover country where there are many jobs for windmill technicians with pay of $25 an hour or more.
1
@rab
I don't blame them. I've worked manual labor jobs since 2001. I'm 34. I used to deliver and install large appliances and have been practicing massage therapy for 7 years. One must take exquisite care to exercise, practice Yoga, and have regular massages/chiropractic/acupuncture etc. to keep the body in working form, and that gets expensive real quick. Once repetitive injuries take hold, you become a slave to chronic back pain as well as swollen, deteriorating joints and you can kiss your career goodbye.
My police officer clients have patterns of plantar fascitis, low back pain from wearing the belt, and shoulder pain from the vest. It's common to see scars from the lumbar spinal fusion surgeries.
My spine takes a sharp turn to the left and the pain keeps me up every single night. I cried when I saw the x-ray. No wonder people are addicted to opioids.
Yes, the pay is good and your body is ruined. Totally worth it.
The principal means that government uses to create jobs is stimulus spending. Obama spent $787 billion on such spending in 2009. The stimulus effect of that spending ended in 2014. Since then, there have been no significant job creation efforts. So growth after 2014 has little do with government policy. Growth continues because the economy is creating jobs on its own.
5
Contrary to widely held economic theories, the economy in general and the stock market in particular do not thrive on order and predictability.
What they welcome most is wild spending associated with chaos and confusion, exactly the type of government Donald Trump has been giving us for the past two years
Which is why the job numbers have been good and the stock markets have been on a sugar-high.
We are now coming to the end of Trump's honeymoon..
In combination with his generally wild behavior, total lack of concern with spending money the country doesn’t have and loose talk about massive increases in military expenditures, infrastructure repairs and the building of a useless wall, the markets are now beginning to wake up to the fact that the chaos it was counting on to provide it with quick and mostly unearned profits has turned into just plain chaos.
People with money in the stock markets should now be ducking for cover.
3
This is why trump will be elected President-for-Life in a landslide. The democrats have yet to address the matter. All people want is a job with enough income to pay for the necessities of life including health care, and a little extra to use to buy a charlotte russe or two.
3
@Sang Ze You have to be careful with the added job numbers then: the statistics do not differentiate between jobs that pay for a living or not. On the other hand: "President-for-life" is - thankfully - not an option in this country and Mr.Trump would have not gotten his job anyhow - because the numbers were still better under Obama and he would - following your logic - taken the "for-life" position in the first place.
2
These jobs are mostly minimum-wage, PART-TIME jobs with NO benefits.
Living the dream, huh?
3
@Sang Ze And the Russian spy/Comrade head of state here in the US will provide all of that? Wow...
2
A shortage of workers willing to work very hard for low paying jobs is not a sign of a good economy.
The 90 day average dropped significantly. The numbers for the last two months were revised down. This month will be revised down.
The bond market is telegraphing recession. The President and Larry Kudlow jawboning the fed to dramatically cut rates is telegraphing recession.
The Republican Congress and Nick Mulvaney in particular supporting a budget deal that explodes the national debt is telegraphing recession.
Look for a deal with China before the end of September and the new 10% tariffs go into effect and look for the fed to make a move before the next meeting.
The virtuous cycle of slow steady GDP growth started under President Obama is ending.
8
Who provided the pipeline for hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars being repatriated into America by US corporations- including Apple - to invest in their companies, among other things?? Obama chased US companies to Ireland and their money to the Cayman Islands, Ireland and anywhere-but-the-US so they wouldn't lose their money.
Welcome home companies to the US, the land of success and prosperity!
@Saints Fan-I'm extremely concerned about the direction our country is headed. I hope we will change direction. That is very different than your cynical reading of what is actually happening.
I have always believed that most people will get up everyday and work hard to improve their future. Some of them will be so brilliant that they drag all of us into a better future.
I have always felt the biggest threat to this virtuous cycle is nuclear war, environmental disaster and pandemic. When you tear up treaties to reduce nuclear weapons, increase the potential for environmental disaster and take away medical care for millions while spending our future on increasing the likelihood of nuclear war and environmental disaster it makes me think we are headed for a disaster.
I'm hopeful we will change course, until we do I hope we avoid disaster. Failure isn't an option.
Really, what about all the over 50 unemployed? Thrown out of the workforce for supposedly being too old, expensive? What about the man who had to stand out in 100 degree heat in Phoenix advertising his resume to get a job? There's so many under employed, unemployed persons not being counted... This number is so not the "real" story...
28
@Louise
Amen. My husband has been on multiple interviews, flown out to places, and after 5 interviews, only to be told, no thank you. When he's well qualified. They should really just say, you're too old and we just want someone younger.
Not sure what the answer is.
7
@Louise
The under employed and those that could work but gave up looking (discouraged workers) are counted in the U6 unemployment rate which has never been lower except for the year 2000. Age discrimination has been a problem under all administrations. Research the following sites so you have facts:
https://unemploymentdata.com/current-u6-unemployment-rate/
https://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate
1
“Ten percent of our positions are always open...”
Which is why we should be clamping down on immigration?
7
@Aaron
Right, and I've seen job listings out there for over 9 months, and 200 applicants apply (if you trust linked in's reporting). Tell me there isn't 1 applicant who is qualified?
It's not immigrants fault, it's your hiring managers.
A job listing over 10 months old on any job site, should be knocked off, because the company is only trolling for good ideas that they take during interviews.
1
This jobs report is good news for America. Keep up the good work, President Trump.
8
@Aleister
Have fun paying off the deficit caused by the tax cut "sugar high"...the bill will come due but "the King of Debt" could care less.
5
@Aleister And what, exactly, has Trump done to create jobs? Sounds more like an example of giving the rooster credit for sunrise.
6
Why are we running a $1 trillion deficit and cutting rates, reducing the already small intervention margin when the economy inevitably turns?
That is not conventional economic policy in a booming economy. Democrats control the purse, I expect more from our House of Representatives.
6
EVERYTHING the House has passed has been blocked by Moscow Mitch. In case you missed it, he's a REPUBLICAN!
2
Seems the Times is missing a lot. Layoffs are happening at several companies. Cisco just announced about a 6% cut of its entire force, which is big. Others are following. Business economists are preparing for a slow down. This report normally lags the real market as the Times well knows. This is not a good report overall. Expect these numbers to be adjusted down in coming reports.
13
My husband works at Cisco. He was layed off last year right before Christmas, then an old ex manager at Cisco rehired him about a month later.
No, the economy is not as good as it seems.
One way to measure the economy locally is:
• how many lay offs?
• how many business closures?
• how much theft from homes is going on?
• how many business buildings are vacant/unleased?
All three are up in the greater urban economic region I live in. So, there is something bad underneath Trump's glowing reports. We are on the bleeding edge here.
6
Cisco is but one data point and not representative for “the” economy. Companies are hiring, albeit at a slightly lower rate than before.
1
I’m constantly amazed by articles like this that make no mention of the coal miners who stopped a coal train from leaving the mine since the miners hadn’t been paid and the checks the mining company had issued bounced. And I read this morning that Lowe’s is laying off thousands. 2+2 doesn’t equal 4 in traitor trumps world it equals 37.5 just ask Moscow Mitch and he will verify that equation
16
Well, until those layoffs actually happen they have jobs and so are included. Just wait, though. . .
I think the very big problem in America is a shortage of QUALIFIED workers. There used to be trade schools, apprentice programs and free community colleges. I went to all three in the 60s. There is also a shortage of jobs with benefits. I think the economy is really just treading water with the majority of Americans doing the same.
23
@Thomas Renner normally I would agree with you but I know a bunch of folks who are extremely well qualified but due to their age aren’t getting hired let alone interviews because middle and upper management want people in their 20s with 40 years of experience
6
@Thomas Renner
There's no shortage of qualified workers: there's a shortage of qualified workers willing to accept being massively underpaid.
11
@Thomas Renner Unfortunately it's all for profit and online education that's run as a business these days...sadly
3
Although these numbers seem impressive, and give people a sense of security in the economy, in my specific field - the restaurant industry - you are seeing growth to save face. Our restaurant group has hired well over 400 employees in the last 6 months, but has lost $800,000 a month since the beginning of 2019. Hiring to staff new restaurants, retaining talent, and paying payroll are the top priorities. How do you accomplish this when you are losing nearly a million dollars a month? Not by a healthy economy, but rather from VC funds; but even VC’s will only keep a dying horse alive for so long - eventually they’ll have to part ways and pull the plug.
These losses might be viewed as poor management, or leadership, or the ability to make great executive decisions. While this might be a partly true , even the most dysfunctional companies can mask their inadequacies when the economy is healthy and show a positive return on investments (example - past housing market). VC’s know that missing payroll is the death march to bankruptcy. They will invest millions in an attempt to save themselves. So, this paints a picture that companies are hiring, people are getting paid, and economy is growing, but I fear all this growth is a smoke and mirrors magic show financed by investors. Soon the smoke will clear and the truth will be revealed that the economy has been a facade for a long time.
10
The unemployment rate of 3.7% is the same as September of 2018 but at least monthly interest payments on our national debt reached $40 billion for the month of June.
15
@jmay Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearly identical to what it was in January 2018. Where's the growth?
1
When will NYT take Andrew Yang seriously? Journalists of all people should know how technology has displaced thousands of jobs in the newspaper and magazine industry. I see columnists writing support pieces for almost every candidate but no one says a word about Andrew Yang and his bold position that UBI is the most efficient and egalitarian way to address the issue of our time - job loss and no wage growth due to automation. Every other Dem candidate is making a variation of yet another huge government program paid for by taxes on the rich but in reality means more deficit spending. Democrat voters acknowledge the issues we face, but Yang is the only one talking about changing the incentives and the way we measure economic success. We have to re think how to incentize (not just tax) for private companies to prioritize the well being of society. I agree with what Yang said at the last debate - until Democratic candidates talk about the real issues, not only will we not win at the polls, millions of Americans will fall deeper into debt and face ruin when the next recession comes (see WSJ article today about the consumer debt bubble).
13
We are in the tenth year of our economic recovery. The President for seven of those years was Barack Obama.
The man some left wing Democrats are attacking was responsible for ending the war in Iraq and bringing 140,000 troops home.
He saved America from entering a Depression and saved the U.S. automobile industry from a total collapse.
He brought health insurance to more than 25 million Americans that has helped save countless number of lives.
He began aggressive moves to combat climate change and protect our environment.
His administration was responsible for laws and regulations that protect the foods we eat, the cars we drive, the medicines we take, the toys our kids play with, the air we breathe, and the products we use.
All of the above are being decimated by the totally unfit to be President bigot currently occupying the White House but sadly, you won't hear about him in the Democratic debates but instead will hear a mountain of criticism thrown at a former President who cared about every American and who governed as though his base was all 335 million Americans.
102
@Mark Jeffery Koch In 8 years, Obama's economy never grew as fast as Trumps. When you start with terrible unemployment in 2009, he couldn't help but get substantial gains once the economy started to recover. Trump got rid of regulations that hampered small business. That was the stimulus that garnered the great gains we have witnessed over the past 2+ years. You may hate him but you must give him credit when credit is due.
3
@MCH...you are aware that all growth predictions under Trump were - quietly - corrected downwards for every single quarter since he took office, right? The "de-regulations" come with a price and the burden is clearly on employees and not the "owner's class" - from decreased safety requirements in mines to the emissions regulations to less consumer protections - the fallout of those "achievements" hits average Americans...only. I totally understand that business owners like the development but it has to be balanced to make it sustainable and that is where the Trump administration really lacks: there is not a single new regulation that benefits the working class...but Mr.Trump was elected by exactly those people. It needs only a candidate to get that message out efficiently and the next election will be a disaster for the GOP. The senate majority leader knows that all to well - that's why he would like to utilize the help of foreign governments to disturb the upcoming election.
13
I could only recommend once. Sorry. I’m sorry mch doesn’t know that deregulation will kill us.
5
Are these jobs filled by citizens or those on visas?
5
And Paul Krugman's head explodes. How is going to dismiss this economic good news?
9
@Jackie Doubt it. His criticisms are directed at claims of a lift above the normal trajectory. Probably does care about the credit stealing going on - the economy has been doing well since 2014.
3
@Jackie Indeed. If these numbers came under Obama, Trump hater Krugman would be ecstatic.
2
American workers are going to have to work longer hours at higher pay just to cover the cost of the Trump/Navarro/Kudlow tariffs. This economy can’t keep humming even if Powell continues to genuflect to Trump by lowering interest rates even more.
And where are Moscow Mitch, Leningrad Lindsey, and all the other Republican hypocrites who used to love free trade and balanced budgets? This house of cards will come tumbling down just like everything else the Bankrupter- in - Chief has touched.
20
I remember not to many years ago that Republicans and the Media were calling for Obama's head with numbers like these. Now it is, these numbers show 'the labor market is maintaining its energy...." or other such stuff. Strange how Democrats seem to be the ones to fix things, hand them off to Republicans who then take credit for it while breaking them again. Usually with huge tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations which is the only policy they have.
69
@David
Exactly. Consistently for about seven years while dragging the economy back from the brink the Obama administration produced higher job numbers than this, and it was always reported "well they're ok, but they really need to be higher, or they're ok but wage growth needs to be higher..."etc And yes, once again, the Democrats are going to be left with the task of cleaning up the consequences of this administrations economic irresponsibility. Don't understand why the voters don't see the pattern, it's certainly repeated itself often enough.
19
How much does it cost the American tax payer to create those manufacturing jobs under Trump. There are estimates of over $900,000 for a job in the steel industry and $800,000 in the manufacturing of washing machines. Comparative advantage? I don't think so.
9
The number of jobs created is meaningless, unless the following are also disclosed and factored in: what percentage of these jobs pay a living wage in their geographic area; what percentage have benefits; what percentage are full-time; what percentage of workers work more than one job and cobble together multiple part-time jobs to keep a roof over their heads? Those factors are truer indicia of the economic health of our country and its workers. My guess is that the jobs and wages landscape wouldn’t look very good, especially in the services sectors theta re doing much of the hiring.
193
These are great numbers with record unemployment.
17
The Times refers to new hires "from the sidelines". Who are these people if not for the underemployed and underpaid who are already included among the working population? As noted in the article, "a broader measure of unemployment that includes part-timers who would prefer full-time work and people who are too discouraged to even search for a job is close to twice the official unemployment rate."
31
@J. This also does not take into account population growth. An absolute "strong" job growth number that is the same as a decade ago means it is actually much worse. The population increases but the same number is represented as "strong" is more hogwash.
As a percentage of population job growth appears to be shrinking.
7
“Ask pretty much any general contractor, hospital leader or restaurant owner about his or her biggest headaches, and a lack of qualified workers comes up.”
This is where we could be doing a lot better. We should be investing heavily in technical training schools. Not everyone has to go to college. Even bolstering and modernizing High School tech-voc programs to include the restaurant industry.
150
My auto mechanic shop owner told me it's difficult to find and keep well trained mechanics.
19
@DanM
Completely agree. In Europe and Japan waiter, welder or craftsman is considered very honorable and requires training to be a good one. There is no reason why a talented waiter can't make 6 figures.
25
@DanM There is a fix for this problem, increase the pay. Many of these owners/manager used to be able to find workers at minimum wage and not they cannot and are complaining.
18
Headline for same jobs numbers three years ago:
US Added a Disappointing 164,000 in July as Hiring Slows.
17
@Michael Conroy That is a Fake News headline. 164,000 new jobs is always welcoming news during any administration.
2
The takeaway is Trump will be re-elected.
6
July 2019 jobs numbers means Trump will be re-elected? We will continue to see impact from the tariffs ripple through the economy so I don’t think this number adequately forecasts where the economy will be in 16 months.
6
@M
So, that is who we are? Our values are about "jobs numbers"?
2
Labor participation rate is still historically low. So this just hides that many Americans are working part time, on Independent contracts, 70% living pay check-to-pay check, etc...
37
@Graham Smith:
The author noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of total unemployment -- termed U6. This includes discouraged workers and those who are working part-time but say they want to work. As far as living from paycheck to paycheck -- there are people earning $50 per week and those making $5,000 per week living paycheck to paycheck.
3
@Graham Smith
Just 70%?
1
With the massive debt load/house of cards economy, both private, corporate, student, gov't etc. the end will come.
The only questions are when and how bad.
13
@Paul
Soon, and, pretty bad.
3
@Paul...agreed..this is an economy not built to last.
As I recall the prior POTUS used that expression "Let's create an economy built to last" in trying to get the GOP then, intransigent as it was, to fork over funds to rebuild infrastructure, improve broadband, build highspeed trains, and retrain workers so they could be able to take high skilled jobs not requiring a 4-year college education.
The GOP would have none of it. They brought us repeatedly to the brink of defaulting on our sovereign debt. Yesterday, in an instant, they helped lift the debt ceiling past the 2020 election to help their king POTUS 45.
What the GOP has been doing since January 2017 is spending wastefully, including the massive tax cut benefiting corporate elites, Moscow Mitch's friends, and Trump cronies.
Like all the tax cuts passed since St. Reagan , the economics for the bottom 95% fail to materialize in any substantive improvement in their financial prosperity. Working families and those in the bottom 95%, who keep our economy humming, will be increasingly not competitive with other economies to weather the storms to come: Brexit; a massive trade war with China; a global economic slowdown, the strong possibility of inflation due to massive US sovereign debt; depletion of the SS and Medicare trust funds; and non-livable wages.
If Trump is re-elected, he alone will face a very angry electorate shortly after he is inaugurated. I predict even his base will expect far better.
5
@Jack S.-thank you for your reply. History has taught us timing re these things is tough to predict. The two greatest economic disasters in modern history circa 1929 and 2008 took ten yrs. to build up, ie party hardy roaring twenties, dot com boom then crash.
1
Every month it's the same thing. The economy being strong despite all the dire "warnings" of the impending doom predicted by the "experts".
Most impressive and rarely talked about is wage growth. And this is where Trump and Obama have the starkest contrast.
Trump, with his America first policies, has not seen ONE MONTH of wage growth less then 3 percent.
Obama , with his globalist agenda and policies, muddled around the 1.8-1.9 percent mark with his highest year over year at 2.2 percent.
This is precisely why Trump will get re-elected. While the mainstream media obsesses over his tweets and tries it's hardest to paint him and his voters racist most Americans simply ignore the white noise. Providing for your family is number one. A secure border is closely followed by that and he's A plus on that one to.
15
@Ari--Just wondering--do you have any evidence for your claim?
6
What many ignore, deny, or are ignorant of is the fact that the economy is doing relatively well IN SPITE of Trump, not BECAUSE of him.
6
@Ari..."A secure border is closely followed by that and he's A plus on that one to.".... A+, really? How about some facts. Obama deported more illegal immigrants than any other President. When he left office illegal immigration into the U.S. was at a 40 year low, and there were no caravans of asylum seekers crossing Mexico thanks in no small part to Mexican cooperation. The mess at the border today has occurred on Trump's watch. So who performed better on securing the border? Facts matter.
3
Shouldn’t we also keep tabs of how many green jobs are being created each month? Our ability to create those jobs is intimately tied to our future prosperity and economic leadership.
19
@LiberalNotLemming
Green jobs are taboo to this administration. Just look at his onerous tariffs on solar panels and wind turbine components. Some republican states actually penalize people who drive electric vehicles. trump and company are owned lock, stock and barrel by the fossil fuel industry. Failure of the green movement is the ultimate goal!
3
Growth in employment opportunities and growth in the labor are indeed welcome and should be celebrated.
We can also cheer and celebrate employers who are actively working to solve their problems in recruiting workers. This statement is particularly welcome.
"To cope, [Ryder Systems] the truck leasing, maintenance and logistics company has stepped up its efforts to develop its own talent pool, looking to recruit students right out of high school and service members finishing up military tours. It has also become partners with Women in Trucking, a trade association, to attract more women to the industry."
Hopefully, Ryder Systems supports its employees with tuition reimbursement opportunities in addition to on the job training.
The reality that underlies our economy is that we have failed to regulate our economy properly. Until we tackle that failure, we can cheer a jobs report and hope for an administration that will support progressive policies.
4
Another interesting thing to look at as far as economic strength is concerned, is how many people have to string together multiple jobs to pay their bills. Job growth is only valuable if the jobs pay a living wage.
Currently I work 60 to 65 hours a week to pay my bills (rent, food, student loans, electricity, etc.). I don't qualify as under employed because one of my jobs if a full time position. The sad thing is, I don't really contribute to the health of the economy by purchasing goods or services (beyond the basics) because of my lack of free time.
33
@Honeybee
Good to know we should strive no higher than to work in indentured servitude until we die and be grateful for the opportunity to be indentured servants while businesses are seeing record high profits and the wealthiest among us get huge tax breaks while the rest of us get crumbs! How do we grow the economy when less and less people can afford to purchase anything more than the most base necessities? As for you idiotic comment on having pocket change isn't a God given right, well neither is making astronomical profits at the expense of the working man and the environment. If you want to get all religious try living by this biblical admonishment- "And they too will reply, ‘Lord, when did we see You hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and did not minister to You?’ Then the King will answer, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for Me.’ And they will go away into eternal punishment, but the righteous into eternal life."
We'll see if you're singing a different tune when trump's "policies" come back to bite you. We'll see how rosy the economy is when his 25% or greater tariffs kick in right in time for the back to school shopping and the Christmas season. Will you still be defending your boy then? I have my doubts. You only like it when his policies are "hurting the right people: the Dems, the poor, the Black, the Brown, the undeserving. The glee at one's fellow man's struggles is appalling.
5
They can't find the workers?
If all the wonderful economic theory that wins "Nobel prizes" never endowed by Alfred Nobel is correct, isn't there a simple solution?
Pay the workers more. Make that dishwasher position $15 an hour. That will cut into your profits? Rubbish.
Here is the real problem. The business class is not willing to pay fair wages. Has not been for decades, so the supply of workers has been drying up. You can't find diesel mechanics because you value them less than the parasites who come up with fancy pseudo-mathematical economic theories and speculate on Wall Street.
107
@whaddoino the problem is that most of their kitchen staff are undocumented workers and there are fewer of them now, right or wrong.
4
@David: the problem is owners of capital wanting to exploit LABOR. It doesn't matter if their undocumented or not. They are an exploitable source of LABOR, just like those on welfare and prisoners who are forced to work for $2 or less a hour by virtue of being a prisoner (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/us/california-today-firefighters-at-less-than-2-an-hour.html?searchResultPosition=3).
Capital is privileged over labor in this economy.
25
@whaddoino--Positively reform immigration laws?
2
How many of them over 50?
16
Business reporters come and business reporters go at the NYTimes, but a constant in reporting unemployment is reliance on the U3 number and acting as if the U6 unemployment number did not exist. Both are reported in the BLS Table A-15, a couple of lines apart. U3 is designed to be an undercount, while U6 is more realistic by including long-term unemployed and discouraged workers.
It is also important to take employer claims of difficulty finding workers with a huge dose of salt, particularly in areas like information technology. Age discrimination is widespread and without effective recourse, often masked if, for example, a middle manager ends up with a job as a crossing guard.
27
From the report: "The employment change for June
decreased from +224,000 to +193,000, and the
change for May decreased from +72,000 to
+62,000. Including these revised data, job
growth in 2019 has averaged 165,000 per
month, compared to 223,000 per month in
2018" So those big May and June numbers have been lowered and YTY growth is actually falling.
12
@Pauljk
Thanks for these numbers...prior month numbers are estimates that get revised. Also, the trend is important not just the point estimate. Both of which you mention.
2
@TJC The NYT chart at the top of this article should show those revisions, shouldn't they?
The piece states: "Revisions to previous reports reduced job creation in prior months by 41,000, but that doesn’t change the overall trend. As long as employers create roughly 100,000 jobs each month, the labor market can keep pace with population growth and the jobless rate will hold steady."
Not sure where I got this, but I believe we used to state that the required number is about 200,000 jobs per month, not "100,000" as indicated in this piece.
Am I wrong? Or has something changed the number?
6
@macjont
Nope, you’re correct it has changed. It was previously closer to 200,000; around 165k. But with us Boomers retiring and we were such a large cohort in the population, it’s now closer to 100,000.
Good catch macjoint.
4
@TJC Thanks. Did some search research and found the following: https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/07/the-new-magic-number-for-monthly-job-growth-145000/
Guess I'm about 3 years, or more, behind the times.
I suppose it would challenge statisticians' abilities, for readers to to ask for more detailed reporting, like this. upfront in a "Survey of business owners": "Even with the jobless rate at a 50-year low, the expansion remains uneven. A broader measure of unemployment that includes part-timers who would prefer full-time work and people who are too discouraged to even search for a job is close to twice the official unemployment rate. That helps explain why so many Americans say they lack economic security and stability."
The new job holders in this case are still "living from paycheck to paycheck" as Vermont's legendarily honest senator says.
26
We are at full employment. The shortages in the labor market are primarily caused by a lack of skilled and highly skilled workers. Those that are hurting mostly live in areas that are in decline, primarily small towns and rural locations. The action is in the big cities. That's where the job growth is.
The article reports an undersupply of hospitality workers. Those jobs, for many years, have been filled by immigrants. If employers can't find enough native born whites to work those jobs, it seems like there is enough room to employ some new immigrants. We can't take all of them, that's for sure, but certainly we can take more to fill these jobs without taking work away from native born whites.
Jobs like HVAC techs, and auto mechanics are in great demand. But you have to go to school for a couple of years to become one and you have to move to a big city.
Our society is becoming more metropolitain each day. That trend will not reverse itself and it was caused, not by politics, but free market capitalism.
7
@Bruce Rozenblit
The problem with the HVAC industry, which my husband worked in over thirty years both as field work and working service manager, is that it has now, like almost every other job, turned into gig employment. If there is no work for the day the worker is sent home without pay. This was unthinkable back in the good old days. Servicemen washed trucks, stocked trucks, studied or were sent to seminars during the slow season. The worst thing that could happen to an oil company was to lose your top technician to the competition. Now all bets are off. His last job was with an HVAC company that mainly dealt with new installs. When he joined the company in 2002 they had work for two years out, when he left in 2008 they couldn't put a forty hour work week together. He was concerned with losing his company vehicle or increases in insurance costs. There was mandated no overtime unless he was called out for emergency service. He was fortunate to get a job with our local utility company, union represented with a "no-lay-off" clause.
Now it's industry standard to send techs home if there's no work. Same with plumbing, same with solar. Our son installs solar. While he makes a decent hourly wage it is rare for him to have a forty hour work week. How does anyone commit to a mortgage if they can't depend on a minimum of a forty hour pay? Or know from week to week if they'll even work at all? Nurses work per diem employed by several hospitals to earn 40 hours. How did we get here?
3
I like what this President is doing. He is dealing from a position of strength and putting Americans first.
21
@TravelingProfessor
I agree but why does he insist on the inflammatory tweets and pandering to the minority of his base instead of attempting to unify the country
15
@Traveling professor
Trump is putting himself first and not you. He is trying to prop up his ability to win in 2020 . Many people are not better off since Trump won. I fear things are going to fall.
46
@Rick - That's what he's like - his policies work, but his character is odious. If he explained more clearly how his policies benefit all Americans, he would completely crush the Democrats.
Presidents take too much credit for jobs numbers. Obama did as does Trump. Keep taxes and regulations at a reasonable level and let Americans do their thing and innovate and the jobs will come.
15
@Jerry
my business saw extremely hard times under Obama and much better times now since we have a person who knows how to run a business and not just community organizing. just saying.
9
@Jerry, sure. You can wash dishes in a restaurant and get rich making $10 an hour. Living high off the hog, he-haw!
11
@Louis Samuels
True, he ran 6 businesses successfully into bankruptcy.
15
Excited to read the relentlessly negative commentary from Democratic voters about how these job numbers don’t mean anything.
Then in 2021, I am excited to read the comparably critical remarks from Republican voters about why the Democratic President is ruining the economy.
15
You mean 2025, right?
2