You must be kidding us!!! The trends show that either Trump will win or his opponent??? - Good grief!
12
Ha..!! -In other words.. Trump could win the election...or his opponent could win.. --Wow.. Thanks for the update..!
12
Quit calling it the "heartland."
15
The problem with middle America is that the Republican politicians there have made things bad for them, yet they instill in their population that voting Democratic would make it even worse. So they keep beating the dead Republican horse in the hopes it will revive itself. And the younger population flee to the better off bluer States and cities.
If a majority of the richest States are Blue, and a majority of the poorest States are Red I would say that's evidence enough for voting blue, but alas, we know evidence is not something Republicans believe in.
13
Republicans are working furiously to destroy our voting rights before perceived Democratic advantages like those sited in the article come to fruition.
3
Looks like one of my posts didn't make it past the censors.
I'll try again.
Do you want to see white voters flock back to voting Democratic?
Drop the shock and disdain for Binden's position on busing for racial integration. Biden's position was the correct one. Such a plan was foisted on Detroit an Pontiac and working class folks were hurt by it. And it wasn't a "perception" as Edsall is fond of saying - the damage was real.
When I talk to Trump supporters and tell them about the "racial justice" thread through the NYT OP-ED pieces and news stories the first questions they ask are: Are NYC public schools racially integrated? Has NYC been subjected to any schemes like busing for racial integration? Actually, they can predict the answers with amazing accuracy.
The Democratic Party needs to become honest about race and race relations.
Regarding Edsall's comments about educated immigrants voting Democratic, that may be true. But if you look at housing patterns here in Metro Detroit, the well educated immigrants for the most part live in mostly white suburbia.
But there is a common thread here. With the NYT's focus on globalization (see Krugman) the folks shopping at Walmart are now something a progressive wave. So there's that.
Now back to hammering on the folks in flyover country.
3
Sorry unless Trump wins by the electoral college nonsense which I doubt. He will be crushed. Expect record turnouts Trump hasn't added to his base since he was elected. Why now or why next year.
8
Why not vote for Weld, Trump's current GOP opponent?
4
This rightward shift hasn't happened in a vacuum or by magic. A lot of it has to do with the Democratic Party abandoning its values and ideals and its labor base in a pitch for more corporate favor and dollars. They stopped being a true opposition party many moons ago. They have laid down in front of the right-wing steamroller and let them have their way with the American public.
You currently have moderate Democrats attacking the left, and its platform, with Republican talking points and making them seem "crazy" for proposing ideas that would have been pretty mainstream in the not-too-distant past.
Our two parties are now center-right and far-right. The once "liberal" New York Times is now the self-serving corporatist New York Times. There's not a single progressive voice among the din here, unless you count the ugly pandering to the authoritarian SJW crowd on social issues. Sad.
5
So it would seem Trump is failing his core on the economic front. Evidence that the base only needs people to look down on, like minorities, and people to despise, like the well-educated.
4
It is so insulting that we refer to the Midwest as "the heartland," as though it is some noble bellwether, more American than the rest.
I live here. It isn't.
25
Research has shown that people do not get more conservative as they age. Older people tend to be more conservative because of their generational cohort, not because of their age. Just because a Democrat ages from 64 to 65 doesn't mean they suddenly start voting Republican.
4
I call the Republican Party the Party of Death. Am I incorrect? Just look at every single policy or policy goal - they all lead to shortened lives for ordinary citizens. For instance, Republicans are working hard to revoke pre-existing condition protections from at least 135 million Americans, and of course that's just one example.
8
@J.Sutton: Very truly. If you haven't read the book "Dying of Whiteness", you should read it. Although it only focuses on three states (Missouri, Tennessee, and Kansas) and only on one issue affecting those states (guns in Missouri, healthcare in Tennessee, and education in Kansas), it is illuminating. Republicans have full control over these states, and the nutty state policies are now creeping into national policies.
6
This urbanization trend is one of the most significant changes in human history. Cities are growing, not just in size but also in wealth. They are ethnically diverse and expect government to make sure things work. Eventually, there will be a vanishingly small rural population. Almost all large-scale farming will be done by robots in the land that has not been ruined by climate change, of course.
3
What constitutes the mid-west. It’s that part of the country that you fly over but don’t want to land there unless your plane is on fire. Then first ask, “what parts on fire”, before deciding.
6
"The aging of the Rust Belt population is a major factor in a closely related trend, the declining share of self-identified liberals" It would be far more accurate to say "the declining share of those with one iota of human decency, integrity, morality or common sense".
5
The notion that the US has a "Heartland" is troubling and always was.
4
Somebody, I forget who, just recently, said that Russia messed with our 2016 election; said it was very serious.
Hillary lost Michigan by a smaller number of votes than people who wasted a vote on Jill Stein.
In short, 'Hooey!' to how tough demographics make it for Dems to win Michigan.
The failure of black voters to turn out was equally grievous.
Comey's spit-up in the electoral punch bowl probably had a part in depressing turnout, as well.
Oh. Mueller. Right.
I know we're all supposed to focus on the horse race, and obviously the plain fact was she'd have been a good president while tRump has turned the Oval Office into an backed up toilet. So the horse race is really important, not character or heaven forbid, policy; focus on the horse race.
Demographics is just smoke in the wind compared to Putin's thumb on the scales, and the wide lard bottom planted on the couch, that's the GOP voters.
Hard to underestimate the folks who love tRump.
13
@Wes "Please, tell me one good thing about the Republican Party, just one."
They appeal to the demographic that has one foot in the grave and soon will have two. How about that?
3
Are people who voted for Clinton in 2016 going to vote for Trump in 2020 just because they are four years older now?
4
Tom Edsall's misapplied causation: Older voters vote Republican, therefore an aging population is more likely vote Republican.
Why that's wrong: People's politics don't magically change when they celebrate a 65th birthday. The guy who's voting Democratic at 64 year of age will likely still be voting Democratic at 65 -- or 70. Voters age, political leanings remain stationary. Aging Republican voters were likely voting Republican most of their adult lives.
7
Democrats need to stop blaming whites for all the ills in the world. Don't expect people in Middle America to vote for you if you show no respect for them.
33
@John - Thanks for the spot-on assessment of Middle America's voting tendencies. However, now both parties are now comprised of intellectual, monied types who've never gotten their hands dirty. Given the state of things 'down on the farm' the Democrats have an opportunity to convince these folks they and their votes do matter.
3
@John
You may want to re-think what you just said. So there are no whites in this country other than the Midwest? There are no areas in this country, other than the Midwest, where a majority of the population is white?
Think, John, think.
Question: which part or parts of this article did you find disrespectful?
17
@John Well, they really aren't, John. That's the long and the short of it.
14
Take EVERYTHING analyzed in this article, indeed take as many article as you want - and toss them out. Toss out the pundits, talking heads, and consultants as well. There is ONE and only one issue: TURNOUT. If the Democrats reprise and even increase their turnout figures from the 2018 mid term elections, then they win - the House, the Senate, and the White House. If Democratic turnout falters in any manner, then they lose everything. The issue of turnout is why the Democrats cannot nominate some vanilla, meh moderate who will schlep around trying to be everything for everyone while being nothing to anyone. The Democrats need someone who inspires passion because that is what will get people to the polls.
5
“Conflicting trends point alternately toward victory for Trump or his eventual opponent.” What the heck. Does that headline have any meaning at all? Someone will win. Thanks for the tip.
6
The times seems to have no idea what the Midwest is. Yesterday there was an article calling Pennsylvania a "Midwestern State." Now this! An Article that omits Missouri on its "broadly defined" list of Midwestern states, but goes on to quote someone calling Kansas City a "Midwestern hub." Is consistency too much to ask for? A broad, ever changing definition of the Midwest makes it impossible to analyze any trends. Their also seems to be a conflation of the Midwest with the Heartland in this article. These loose definitions make it easier to deceive and use assorted polling data to show "trends" that are not there.
3
@Jack: I noticed that too. I don't think of Pennsylvania as the Midwest. In what universe? If they mean Rustbelt, then yes, but by geography it isn't the Midwest. Maybe Midwest mentality has infected Pennsylvania. And if Midwest mentality and values now mean that you hate blacks, women, Jews, Muslims, the poor, the sick, the educated, and will work hard and vote to hurt those people so you can feel better about yourself, then I want nothing to do with you. I know that not everyone in the Midwest feels like that, but enough of them do to vote for Trump, who apparently reflects their values.
4
I'm sorry did Edsall talk to voters in the midwest?
By just citing polling he's missed how, and why, Hillary Clinton drove votes to Trump—nationwide, but it mattered in Michigan.
Get him a travel budget.
Submitted July 31st 2:41 PM
1
I'm a lifelong Democrat and I'm getting sick and tired of the Democrat mindset. Does one win a war by throwing tomatoes at the other side, or calling them stupid? The Democrats' strategy, based on these comments, is called "whining" as far as I can tell. You need to understand your opponent in order to defeat him/her. Has a Democrat here ever played chess? Ever fought a war? Does the word 'strategy' mean anything to Democrats? If you're all so broadminded and intellectual, why don't you understand why people are voting for Trump? I abhor Trump, but he's going to win again if the Times comments are any reflection of Democrats across the board. Have you read "Every Time Democrats Talk, I Want to Vote for Trump Twice." https://thefederalist.com/2019/03/13/every-time-democrats-talk-want-vote-trump-twice/ Why not study the opponent and respond? Why not study the points they are making? People don't vote for Trump because they like a con man, they vote for Trump because they don't relate to Democrats. I'm sick to death of Democrat arrogance and intellectualizing. And I'm a liberal Trump hater who voted for Bernie in 2016. I don't recognize the narrow-mindedness and arrogance of the Democratic party. I fail to see a big difference between the typical Trump voter comments and the ones here; name-calling. Democrats, as far as I can tell, stand for very little except hating Trump. Do we have solutions? Can we be inclusive? Apparently not.
5
I just turned 65 and am a life-long democrat. The only Republican I ever voted for was the late Pennsylvania Senator John Heinz. That said, it just boggles my mind that after all the scandals and corruption in this administration, anyone could still support Trump. My main concern is the environment and climate change. If Trump is reelected and continues his assault on Planet Earth what kind of world will we have in 25 or 50 years? I'll probably be dead by then, but I do worry for my nieces who are only 6 and 4 years old.
99
@Figgy: I'm a life-long Independent who has voted democratic most of the time. The only Republicans I've ever voted for were Bill Weld when he ran for governor of MA nearly 30 years ago and Silvio Conte. Their kind Republican is as extinct as the dinosaurs and dodo birds. I don't know what happened to the GOP--at one time they stood for more than hurting people, hating people who aren't wealthy, white, Christian men, and greed. We're in a race to the bottom with them in charge, and they're winning.
Like you, I, too, am worried about what kind of world my niece and nephew, now young teenagers, will have when Trump is re-elected and the GOP continues its assaults upon the earth, women, minorities, education, health care, science, and the social safety net.
I'm coming to understand that those who vote for Trump are motivated by hatred of the other--blacks, women, Jews, Muslims, immigrants, even when those same policies hurt Trump supporters as well as the others. The old adage "cutting off your nose to spite your face" comes to mind.
I knew the hatred was there, ready to manipulated and used, but I never realized just how much hatred there was and how close to the surface it was. I fear for the country regardless of the outcome of the election. Will it be like 1860, with some of the country not willing to recognize the results and ready to go to war?
21
The author says: "The population of the Rust Belt is aging at a much faster pace than the rest of the country." Is this due to all the rust? I live in western Iowa. Should I be worried? It is gravitational fields, perhaps, that the coasts are immune to? Please advise!
2
Regarding the urban/rural divide in the so-called 'heartland,' I suspect that more depends on what kind of Democrat and Republican voter and what kind of candidate each party puts on the ballot. In Oklahoma, 34 of 77 counties have a plurality Democratic advantage, yet all 77 counties voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Only one of the 34 counties in which Democrats have the advantage has one of the 9 cities with a population of at least 50,000. The rest of the 8 urban areas lie within Republican counties. The voting patterns here may change, but it will be very slow: last November, Oklahoma elected its first Democratic congressional representative in several decades, largely because of the change in Oklahoma City's demographic. Those nine 'urban areas' only constitute 1.6 million of the state's 4 million people, so while rural Oklahoma may be getting smaller, urban Oklahoma isn't growing nearly as fast as comparable areas in other midwest states. And the single county with the greatest population gain (between 2.5 and 10.3%): Canadian County, where Republicans are 61.1%, Independents 14.3%, Democrats 24.1%. Under these conditions, the Democratic Party could nominate the most conservative candidate on the stage last night or tonight, and I suspect that Trump would still win 77 counties.
This column puts in bold display why the anachronistic electoral college should be extinguished.
America is no longer an aspiring union struggling to include slave-owning territories. However, the vestiges of what the founders were faced with in the 18th century haunt (pollute) us to this day. It is why America had GW Bush (and the Iraq war), and now, the exponential absurdity of president Donald Trump.
If it takes a 28th amendment, then let's proceed in that direction, no matter the hurdles involved. If we survive the Trump debacle, we should endeavor to prevent anything resembling it from occurring again.
1
Please correct me if I am wrong, but there appears to be a flaw in Edsall's reasoning here.
Age itself does not dictate whether people vote progressive or moderate or conservative -- they were rightist and racist from the get-go.
It is not reasonable to expect middle-aged people to change their voting pattern upon reaching senior status. "Hey now, I'm eligible for Social Security, so I guess I'll go downtown and switch my party affiliation to Republican."
No, Mr. Edsall, correlation still does not equal causation.
7
@LarryAt27N Actually, a rightward nudge is a commonly observed phenomenon with age.
Trump will not win Michigan. The urban black voters will vote in droves this time and Clinton got as many white votes as Obama. Same for the newly elected Governor Whitmer, Lt Governor and Attorney General - all state wide races won easily. How it pans out in Wisconsin is debatable, same with Ohio. I doubt he can win Pennsylvania though, and also think he will lose Iowa this time to boot.
The angry whiter retirees are aging out it Michigan and it only gets bleaker from here - although most young people do leave asap - so who knows how it will go in 20 years. The gerrymandering keeps Republicans in power, even though the anti-gerrymander proposal won 70 to 30, the Republicans filed in court today claiming it was unconstitutional. So there's that.
4
The WSJ reported that wages and savings are up nicely. Somewhere people are happier. Depends where, it seems.
2
@AACNY
Yes, happy are the billionaires who are receiving trillions in tax cuts and not just a few nickels like the MAGA-hatters until the economy collapses again under a massive Trumpian debt load. Bankruptcy is Trumps specialty but everyone knows that. No?
7
Espousal of a rural and small town New Deal that brings investment and retraining could change the electoral map for Democrats. Democrats will not be able to compete for the hearts and minds of non-urban Americans on the basis of style and values. The GOP has that market locked up. Serious targeted substance will be required.
1
@woofer. What to build where the educational level is low? Gun ranges?
3
Not one word from Edsel about Social Security and Medicare. If he's right about the number of older voters in those areas these are prime subjects with which to win the White House as well as House and Senate seats. Mitch McConnell has already said, he wants to cut both programs (privatize Medicare, raise the age and COLA or even use George W Bush's plan to invest Social Security in the stock market). Democrats can win big numbers of Republican and Independent voters by using these issues.
5
Republicans wield power because they focus energy on control of state legislatures and Congress. Democrats place most of their energy and focus on winning the white house. Ergo, even when Democrats win the white house they are held hostage to Republicans in Congress. When they win the statehouse they are held hostage by state legislatures. Democrats consider it a major victory when they can reach across the aisle and get a watered down compromise. Republicans won't even consult with Democrats when they hold both Congress and the white house; or, the statehouse and state legislature. When will Democrats wake up?
7
The article frames the challenge that the real progressives face. The downwardly mobile people of all districts need to know that by voting for Democrats like Bernie or Liz will be a vote for their neighborhoods, a vote for a livable wage, a vote for a New Deal approach to rebuilding the middle class and the future and a vote for making sure that nobody get's left behind in this nation.
The type of morality and vision of people like Eleanor Roosevelt and George C. Marshall are what Liz and Bernie stand for and the words needs to reach these people's ears.
I watched "Five Came Back" and I suggest you do too. The Democrats have the best and brightest producers, directors and actors who are largely also patriots.
We need to get the message out and make every word, image and message as impactful as our best and brightest talent can make it and then find the means (as hard as it may seem) to get messages based in truth and morality to those desperate for that kind of hope. Only in this way can the constant barrage of powerful propaganda (based in lies and big lies) be countered.
The Republicans are all-in on corruption and fighting only for the giant corporations and the super rich and they control the minds of their followers through wedge issues, corrupting the church leadership and other tactics of fascism in my opinion. We must use both creativity, excellence and truth with equal ruthlessness to win.
7
@Tom Paine
Downwardly mobile people will be rescued by voting for democrats? Tell that to the people of Baltimore.
1
It is a refreshing change to read a Times column regarding the coming election that delves into reality instead of just parading the author's favorite bumperstickers.
5
I may be missing something. When the 18 - 35 group grows, that means new voters are added - the ones that previously were 16 or 17. Many of these new voters are probably more progressive. When the over 65 group grows, that means the same old voters are just getting older. That is, the new members of the group are already long-time voters with pretty fixed preferences. Two years ago they were 63.
I'm not sure the Publicans should be so confident.
4
It is not about the size of the age bracket but rather about the comparative rate of turnout of each group.
The author of this article is reading some of the Pew data backwards, giving him incorrect conclusions:
"Pew Research reports that from 2010 to 2017, the percentage of people who say they are liberals in the Midwest dropped from 23 to 19 percent, while the percentage describing themselves as conservative fell by a statistically insignificant 1 percent, from 38 to 37 percent"
The data he links to actually says that 19% were liberal in 2007, and 23% were liberal in 2014, while conservative increased from 37 to 38. I'm not sure where he got the years 2010 and 2017 from, but this data indicates the percent identifying as liberal is actually increasing, not decreasing.
6
It was Obama who wrote off the white working class voters of the rust belt (the old Reagan democrats).
Trump relates to them. He is seen as one of them (as strange as that sounds). They take it personally when Trump is attacked by the press and Democrats. They are his base of support.
2
@Melissa M.
Trump doesn't relate to them, he doesn't relate to anyone, he doesn't know how to do that. But he does know how to use them and he does that effectively.
5
@Melissa M.: Trump doesn't relate to them. He gins them up, tells them what they want to hear, fans their hatred.
Trump, a millionaire when he was 3 due to his father setting up trusts for him and turning over money to him, hasn't got a clue and cares even less about working class people. But he sets up boogeymen and scapegoats (blacks, women, minorities, Jews, Muslims, immigrants) and is a genius at dividing people and getting them to focus their hatred on the scapegoat, and thus not paying attention when Trump and the GOP rob their supporters and make life worse.
4
"Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa". Despite all the rhetoric from the debates, these are the only states that matter.
4
@Sipa111 Let Norway know; they're bursting at the seams with people looking to migrate to the U.S.
1
Farmers will lose their land. It will be bought by the agro-industrial mega farming industrial complex. Does it never cross their minds that there might be intent there on the part of the GOP with Monsanto somewhere in the ether? It is not the liberals who against them. I doubt they will listen.
7
The electoral college win by Trump attributed to the midwest states can be reversed with a Biden/Harris ticket offering relief from the chaos president. The economy will not collapse if Trump is defeated in 2020 and income/wealth inequality has a good chance of improving. Health care with an improved Obama care plan with better features helping Medicare clients pulling in the senior vote who are living longer these days. Biden can rejoin the Paris Accord , repair relations with our traditional allies and end the Trump fawning over dictators improving our status in the world back to what it was under Obama.
6
Two events changed Republicans from conservatives to reactionaries:
1. The defeat by Goldwater Republicans of Rockefeller Republicans.
2. The passage of the Civil Rights and Voting Acts by a coalition of Northern & Midwestern Republicans and all Democrats, except the Southern.
Since the divisive presidential election of 1968, to quote Bruce Bartlett, domestic policy adviser to Reagan and Treasury official under Bush I, in a past NYT Op-Ed (July 21, 2016): ”The Republican Party today is basically a coalition of grievances united by one thing: hatred. Hatred of immigrants, hatred of minorities, hatred of intellectuals, hatred of gays, feminists and many other groups too numerous to mention. What binds them together is hatred of Democrats because they are welcoming to every group that Republicans reject.”
It's hard to pay the rent and feed one's children from bigotry, racism and general hatred of Others.
Pretty soon the current Republican base will be outnumbered by the disparate groups Republicans and other "conservatives" hate, and fear.
8
Rural voters should remember that Republicans plan to reduce your Social Security and privatize it, reduce Medicare and Medicaid, and do away with any other safety nets.
You have boot straps don't you? Better use them to pull yourself up if Trump wins another four years.
13
Trump and the GOP want to eliminate Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and use that ‘saving to pay for his fake tax cuts and pump more money into the Military. Maybe seniors should about that.
9
I’ve seen it happen. I am friends with an older couple who used to pretty much share my political views. As they have aged, though, the husband spends more and more time watching Fox News during the daytime. The wife does not. The husband now has started producing Fox-isms throughout our conversations. For example, he firmly believes the Democrats are all for open borders. When I say that’s not so and ask him for the name of just one Democrat who has stated support for this position he is at a loss. But no matter what I say I cannot shake him from his belief that open borders are a bedrock position of the party. Fox drives it into his head every hour of every day and it is firmly embedded. His wife just shakes her head. I also have a surprising number of friends who have reported that their parents are just the same. Their main activity now is watching Fox news and they too have become firmly indoctrinated and beyond the voice of reason. It’s a serious problem. And as we are all living longer and longer it’s only going to get worse.
14
@Susan
I think Elizabeth Warren made it pretty clear last night that she is for open borders. And BTW, I do not watch Fox News.
2
This piece makes no mention about the most crucial factor in the upper Midwest swing states. That is, voter turnout. Voter turnout rates are significantly lower among 18-30 year olds and very low among urban non-white eligible voters in Midwest cities. Voter turnout rates will decide the election in 2020.
4
I would like to see this kind of analysis done for the pivotal purple state of Florida. The emphasis on analyses like these is constantly on the Midwest and Rust Belt. Consider this possible scenario: The Democrats lose MI (17 electoral votes) or even both MI and WI (10 electoral votes) which equals a total of 27 votes. Florida is waiting in the wings with its 27 electoral votes up for grabs. Add us into your next analysis. Your conclusions would be interesting to read as our diverse young and aging demographics are constantly in flux including many Midwestern retired transplants. We can swing blue but it is not at all a certainty. Give us more condideration however as another viable path to victory in your next study.
4
To varying degrees we deserve this country because each to his own ability, we made it. We have allowed our government to divest from it's people, their health, environment, food quality, healthcare and infrastructure in order that a small margin of humans become grotesquely wealthy. And with less and less resources available (tax contributions) we have a survival of the fittest outcome. We did this, some much more than others but, until we understand what we have wrought nothing transformative will occur.
7
The mobility underlying these demographic changes was likely assisted by increased access to healthcare under Obama. Very flawed, Obamacare was still the first step toward the greater freedom that affordable coverage gives to citizens who are not tethered to a job with benefits because of fear of the unknown. Medicare for All would be good for businesses and citizens alike.
3
It's not like when you turn 60 you automatically become a card-carrying Republican. The people aging into the demographic presumably will keep at least some of their prior political views. So perhaps the degree to which the 60+ crowd broke for Trump will lessen, as opposed to the effect implied here: that an aging populace will become more Republican-leaning.
3
As the saying goes, if when you are young you aren’t a liberal, then you have no heart. And if when you are old, you aren’t conservative, you have no brain.
1
I find it difficult to imagine why a liberal thinking young person would shift to supporting something like Trump in their advanced years especially since liberal programs would almost always lean to their benefit and at worst would be neutral.
The only thing that I can imagine is that they were never truly liberal in the first instance but rather seemed so just to fit in with their cohorts.
6
My wife and I live in the heart of Minneapolis, a liberal bubble if there ever was one. The city has passed several progressive ordninances, including a $15 minimum wage, and more progressive rules governing sick leave. NYT has been covering the city's proposed growth plan, which would foster density by relaxing zoning laws.
But one only need drive to the outer suburbs to find people and governments that are downright hostile toward Minneapolis and its progressive leaders. Go into rural areas and it seems like a different planet, ideologically speaking.
Republicans representing outstate districts eagerly exploit the divide, painting the Twin Cities as greedy and wasteful, taking up too much state tax revenue while coddling undocumented immigrants.
Minnesota has not nominated a Republican presidential candidate since Nixon, but who knows about 2020" What was once a solidly blue state is a lot more purple than it was when I moved here 17 years ago, and Minneapolis feels more like an island every day.
3
Can we please ditch the term “ heartland” when talking about the middle of the country? Somehow this word implies common-sense, middle of the road, “real” Americans, “traditional” and similar phrases. It seems to imply that that the coastal states are somewhat less American.
This column is very useful by providing us data driven political analysis. But then it repeats the “heartland” trope in the headline and charts. Please find a better word when referring to the non-coastal areas of the country.
8
Re aging white folks: The Democrats just need to keep it simple, skip the arcane policy debates, and hammer home the message that Republicans want to chip away at your Social Security and health care (including Medicare).
9
At 67, I know that my Social Security will be cut by 25% by 2033. There are similar concerns about Medicare. The logic of old voters voting Republican escapes me.
17
Maybe I’m missing something here but it seems that when left leaning voters are concentrated in urban areas it works to their disadvantage, at least on the state level.
2
According to the Economic Innovation Group report, “The report concludes with bad economic news, which is, paradoxically, good news for Trump. In 2016, the 207 counties that flipped from Obama to Trump ‘reflected voter dissatisfaction with the status quo.’ Now, 15 months before the election, economic conditions in these counties remain dismal and ‘the latest data provide no evidence that their trajectories will have meaningfully changed by 2020.’”
I fail to see how this can be the basis for good news to Trump. If these people voted for Trump because of their dissatisfaction and frustration with the Obama administration as their economic situation was failing, why should they continue supporting Trump, when all evidence indicates he has done nothing to improve their lot? Maybe in addition to poor economic prospects, the analysis should focus on feeble minds at work in the Obama to Trump districts.
3
As a lifelong Midwesterner, I think that Edsall's fine article reinforces a belief held for many years regarding elections in the U.S. Despite all of the talk about riches, a sizeable majority of voters base their votes less on Riches than they do on the other two R's of U.S. politics: Religion and/or Race (order may vary).
8
At 74 I am still naive enough to believe that candidates matter more than the voters' age.
It's hard to make a decent argument based on one small data point at the far edge of the map but I'll try.
Maine is and has been for at least a decade the nation's oldest state with the median age a bit more than 47 years. Contributing to our "aging" is the exiting of young college graduates looking for work plus and an influx of well-off retirees from "away".
Most of our 16 counties are rural and even the ones with cities have large rural areas. We are probably one of the whitest states.
In 2008 Barack Obama handily carried 15 of the 16 counties and he did it again in 2012 even as we suffered with an insufferable Republican governor.
In 2016 Clinton carried none of the very rural counties that Obama won and won only the 7 counties with the largest suburban/urban populations.
In 2016 had the Republicans put forward a moderate, moderately intelligent candidate more than a few lifelong, aging Democrats, including myself, would have voted R.
We now have a competent Democrat as Governor -- Janet Mills.
Candidates matter.
5
Why don't we all get it.
The single most thing that motivate Republicans to vote republican is Hate of Democrat fueled by conservative talk shows, Fox news.
It is a clear & a present danger to United States.
12
And of course if not for the EC and the increasingly disproportionate representation of the Senate, we wouldn't need to even have this conversation.
I have great respect for midwesterners, and I have family and friends who live there, but representative democracy works best when it represents actual people, not square mileage of sparsely populated land.
5
May sound crazy, but with all the money spent on campaigns, not sure why the Dems don't subsidize people in deep blue states so they can move to purple states?
Is that against campaign finance law? Is it crazier than the fact that we still use the Electoral College to decide presidential elections in our democracy?
This is the exact phenomenon that drives Brexit and the elevation of Erdogan in Turkey. The hinterlanders here don't read national newspapers and are served disinformation by fox and Sinclair. It's the Murdoch empire in the UK, Australia and the US. What fox calls entertainment is feeding disinformation and makes me question the limits of the 1st amendment.
3
Any thoughts on what to tell an upset child that just heard and saw the president tell everyone that the place she/he calls home ‘no human being wants to live’???
3
I am an old man and while still living, have no right and less reason dictating to my children how they should live in their world, yet that is what we, from our President on down, are doing.
While I am well past my physical and mental prime there is a residual strength in both that still influences my personal and more selfish approach to life. I cannot say with any surety this reflection is common to all of us who have reached this age, but I can state without equivocation this attitude is not the same as those of my children.
They, like their peers, share an outlook which is full of promise and dreams while we elders on social security do little, but look back. Our future is marked with aches and pains, but, if we are honest, rarely delusion.
Honesty is the key which unlocks the door to the reality of aging and the acceptance of our demise. We had our day and no amount of wealth can stop the process. We have a responsibility to our children and theirs which is to offer what we can and get out of the way.
The world is no longer ours, but dimmed vision accompanying our age won't let us see the truth.
6
Seems to me a mistake to think that many rural Trump voters in 2016 will vote again for Trump in 2020. One of the appeals of Elizabeth Warren is that she speaks to these folks and offers real policies that might appeal to them. Only the most stubborn of them are off limits to Dems.
7
@bruce: You'd think so, but I don't think this country is ready for a woman president, even one as smart as Elizabeth Warren. And she's from Massachusetts, which, according to some of my Southern relatives, alone is enough to make them hate her and never vote for her, even though they like her ideas when they don't know they're her ideas.
1
It's no wonder the GOP is working so hard and playing dirty. Given these population patterns, as the country ages it will become more Democratic. Those 18-35 year olds will become the 35-55 year olds and so on.
If only the GOP could adapt instead of digging in, there might have been hope for the party to really compete for those young voters-to-be.
2
It's no wonder the GOP is working so hard and playing dirty. Given these population patterns, as the country ages it will become more Democratic. Those 18-35 year olds will become the 35-55 year olds and so on.
If only the GOP could adapt instead of digging in, there might have been hope for the party to really compete for those young to-be voters.
I am not totally depressed, for the midwest is lost to democrats (young people don't vote anyway). I guess it is up to Texas turning blue.
I don't like to turn dark, but eventually older Republicans will leave by "attrition", if you know what I mean.
2
its older people who vote republican which were once the baby boom generation that preached love. As they grew older and fell in line with the capitalistic culture threw off the peace and love chains for I got mine medals. Soon these phony counter culture hippies will lay in a grave and America can find it true calling melting pot
Seems to me that if millennials got themselves out of bed and actually voted they could be a force for change, but that would require a commitment. I doubt that many boomers would openly laugh at them for showing up at their local polling place wearing their pajama pants IF THEY ACTUALLY VOTED!
Would someone please remind me again why this area of the U.S. is constantly referred to as the 'Heartland'. I left that region well over 30 years ago and in the 80's found very little heart there. Today it may be even a more opinionated, closed, resentful and angry place than it was then. So, where is the heart in 'Heartland'?
14
@Dennis W
You can't go back home.
1
I am a 58 year-old Libertarian who would have happily voted for Clinton were it not for the fact that living in Washington state, her victory was all but assured. Next year, just for the first time ever, I will vote for whoever the Dems select as their nominee. Even though my vote probably still not make much of a difference in this state.
4
This article makes good points about age (even though I'm a 76 year old Democrat) but it ignores the other demographic changes in these battleground states since 2016. The increase in number of people of color and immigrants is significant and should wipe out the 2016 deficit.
1
Not necessarily. Remember what happened in Georgia in 2018? The GOP is using voter suppression to prevent people of color from having a voice. I expect that will increase in 2020. The numbers favor liberals, but the reality is that the GOP will be working hard to purge just enough of those voters to give trump a second term.
4
In general, why do Democrats for national office fear campaigning in the Heartland? Do they just not "get" how it works? Is it too "foreign" for them? It always seems to be issue. The GOP has had issues, too. Or is it just that Trump found the right nerve to stoke (enough of) them in to action while he repressed enough liberal voters to stay home?
This tells me that people who have their whole lives ahead of them don’t vote, and people who have their whole lives behind them vote for Republicans. what a disaster.
8
Since when has that block of states from Kentucky to Louisiana been part of the Heartland? Alabama? Mississippi? Are you kidding?
1
Do all those aging Rust Belt Seniors know that Trump is planning to defund Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security in order to offset the budget shortfalls caused by his immoral tax cuts for "elite" plutocrats ?
Or did high-school-grad and minister of propaganda Hannity not bother to tell them that ?
"Stupid is as stupid does."
Forrest Gump.
6
We've always faced a conflict over whose vision of America will dominate, in a system structured to favor of the wealthy, powerful, and conservative. The framers' concern for radical, populist change are reflected in our Senate, electoral college, and even the fact that we are a republic and not a democracy.
Today we face huge historic changes that will define American lives and direction for the foreseeable future -- well known and in the making for decades. Yet we have dithered and wasted our time fighting over parochial interests, as the powerful sold a worried citizenry the fantasy, 'If we can just go back to a better time' to justify rolling back gains and not sharing the benefits of our economy.
Many older voters in their more isolated and homogenious lives have a sensibility informed by the extremes of our culture and popular media, without even the perspective of our own recent history. They live in the paradox of American exceptionalism combined with an America that can no longer afford big visions (another lie); where government benefits go to 'others' who are 'takers.' Meanwhile, the damage grows imminent and problems more intractable.
So, whose vision will win out in 2020? Will our children inherit a legacy of selfish hoarding, opposing change, and fighting amongst ourselves? Or do we give them the tools and benefits citizens elsewhere enjoy, from which they will have the personal security to go on and tackle the big problems in a changing world?
I am a white, sixty-seven year old male ostensibly living in a suburb (which used to be considered rural). I have voted for Republicans in the past, including Romney when I lived in Massachusetts, Giuliani when I lived in New York City, and George Pataki. Well the Republican Party’ s embrace of Trump means I will NEVER vote for another Republican candidate for any office and will ( and already have) contributed to the Dems and have and will work for their election. I am not alone.
10
Can anyone recommend how to respond to a child that just saw and heard the president of the United States tell her/him that the place they call home ‘no human being wants to live?
3
@Robert Mescolotto
I would explain to them that people with mental illness need support and medical care, and that they sometimes don't understand the world around them.
I would also explain that with some rest ( not getting re-elected) and suitable medical the President could become a happy, healthy individual.
Some people change as they mature and grow older. I'd like to believe that as most of us move through life we become more tolerant and accepting of others whose lives have been different and, quite possibly, harder than our own.
@furnmtz ...and some people become bitter and less open to anything new and different that challenges their tightly-held view of the world.
1
Young voters have the biggest stake in determining their future.
My tongue-in-cheek recommendation is that votes should count in proportion to the expected remaining lifespan of the voter. If the average expected lifespan for a white male is 75, once you hit that magical age, your vote doesn't count anymore. Voila, Democrats win everywhere, including the rapidly graying rural Midwest. OK, maybe I'm not really kidding, but before anyone gets too offended, I'm over 60.
The GOP efforts to stimulate the economy which was already growing into a juggernaut of plutocratic wealth concentration could work against Trump. Its interesting to think that economic factors that would normally be associated with popularity for a sitting president work against them. The rust belt giving a Trump razor thin victory in the electoral college showed how it worked one way. And hi tech oriented wealth gains helping the Democrats. The problem for Trump is his hate mongering which offends many of his own supporters. As has been stated Trump doesn't seem much interested in expanding his base. Thus depending on winning another election without winning the popular vote.
1
"Voters in communities that are doing better economically appear less anxious and nostalgic, and more tolerant and forward looking — more interested in issues and less inclined to reward nativism and economic nationalism."
The future is bright!
We just have to be patient behind our blue walls-enjoying life - working for and sharing with those who need a boost in life -and resisting the GOP trogs wherever we can.
These miserable angry old conservatives will self destruct and become irrelevent from self inflicted wounds AND the clock will do the rest!
4
Is the 67 year old today the same as the 67 year old of ten years ago? I ask because so much of the numbers approach seems to look at it this way. However, todays 67 year old is a Baby Boomer and the other one is not. So when a person reaches 65 are all the other demographic issues forgotten? I sure would never know it from the fact that the adds call me to live the life of the "adventurous" senior etc etc. Actually, my husband at 69 is still working and I, at 72, am retired. We both vote Democratic.
5
@NKO
I believe we are both different in our sixties than our parents were.
We're generally healthier and have a much younger outlook on the world, and our hobbies, interests and activities support that viewpoint.
In general we're also better educated and informed, which tends to skew us to the left more than our parents were.
2
Does it really matter if a voter has a birthday and goes from 64 to 65? Probably not. But it can matter a lot if one goes from 17 to 18.
We need totals for voters over and under 50, not just change in some subgroup of them.
4
Excellent article. Rural voters embrace Trump because he gave them a scapegoat for their economic misery, and another class of people they could look down on. They will stick with him until someone gives them a better scapegoat (not really possible), or actually does something to fix their problems. By doing nothing other than spouting rhetoric about immigrants, Trump is giving Dems a golden opportunity to talk about economic revival in the areas bypassed by the recovery - if only they take it...
10
Encouraging and depressing at once.
We have sixteen more months to go before we either endure as a democracy or succumb to tyranny.
The person responsible for our misery is becoming more insidious, impudent and audacious. He trades in hate, division and self aggrandizement. He's not delivered a single benefit to his supporters - their miserly tax cut notwithstanding.
My hope for reaching his supporters will be his continuing to push the boundaries of civility. That he will cross a line so egregious, that even they will have had enough. But then, you have to wonder, based on what they've swallowed so far, just how awful it will have to be, in order to do that.
6
The Democratic debates are just reinforcing the divide. It won't matter if they win 90% of the votes in Blue states, you MUST address the heartland or lose to Trump in the Electoral College. It's pretty basic. Frankly, the Electoral College force the candidates to address the whole country.
If I fear I'm being left behind, that my job/food/housing security is at risk, my priorities are going to be immediate and basic. Help me, I vote for you. Otherwise, I'll just hate "them" for my condition. It isn't right, but we're aren't talking logic here other than the most visceral sort. Trump knows that part of the brain really well and will manipulate it constantly.
Democrats - stop preaching to the converted, start addressing the folks that pushed the election Trump's direction. These aren't all racist deplorables, just hurting people on the edge.
9
The real issues should be the topic of discussion. Bill Clinton and Obama both moved from the left to the center and had no problems getting elected or re-elected. The environment, health care, fair pay, etc. will bring anyone with common sense around.
3
There is enough of an appetite for significant change but the "Bernie or Bust" voters must get out and vote regardless of the Democratic candidate. Unless they enjoy the "bust" that has been Trump.
5
GOP has the old people where they want them. Scared of others coming and taking your country. Scared that the Dems are going to raise your taxes. SS and medicare, medicaid are in trouble. GOP is raising the debt so high even retirees will have to choose between social programs for themselves or the future retirees. Selfishness is in. Pay off the farmers. Fix the tax rate on retirees. Scare them into nationalism. Take America back is as racist as Go Home!! Good to see St Reagan tapes reveal his true racist persona. White silence coupled with a white house mega phone will cause damage. So after a lost decade because of the GOP caused recession we have moved to a lost decade of nationalism for profit. You know who you are.
7
Another factor, not considered here, is that there are many old lefties, or hippies, in the cohort said to typically vote Republican. If they succeeded in making a ton of money in their lifetimes, they may skew to the Right, to protect capital gains revenue and other tax breaks.
But the women's lib, voting rights and civil rights efforts of the 60's and 70's still, in large part, stay with the older voter. So does belief in unions.
Despite the statistics shown here, the combination of Midwest urbanization, the cohort of left wing baby boomers, and young voters is not to be underestimated.
3
The brightest kids leave for college and never come back. Brain drain is a huge issue for rural areas, small towns and small cities. Educated women especially have little incentive to return to a town without many men of similar educational attainment, who can't hold down a job due to addiction, if they could even find a job. This played out in East Germany before, and they have not found a solution either.
9
The Pew Research reports May show changes in number of liberals versus moderates over a 7 year period in several states. But add together the percentages of liberals and moderates. You will find the sums of 56% holding steady.
So it is premature to jump to the conclusion that Trump is a shoo in.
Also, farmers are plenty mad to have lost their soybean markets because of a trade war. And Michigan and Ohio auto workers realize the tariffs and trade wars are hurting them, plus Trump is not really standing up for their jobs and pensions.
5
I have met Bernie Sanders on several occasions and the only thing I am sure of Bernie does not like me and I do not like Bernie but if I were American he would have my vote. I am soft spoken and gentle and speak with a sophistication that belies my High School education and I know math and science and prefer to educate rather than to argue. Like Swift I will not debate unless I feel I could argue either side successfully.
After the debate I read the Times and the Post and listened to CNN and MSNBC and this morning was delighted that so many comments reflected my own reaction to the propaganda put forth by a corporate media and a corporate culture.
The concern expressed on the debate stage was genuine and the situation is dire. Here in Quebec my bank is publicly owned as is our electric utility. Our electric utility is a monopoly but is widely considered the model for corporate governance and social responsibility. Our publicly owned bank and financial institution competes with a number of private banks, insurance companies, investment houses and money managers and outperforms all of them.
When Reagan told the American people government of the people was the enemy he called America a lie. Now that government of the people no longer exists Reagan's big lie has become America's only truth. America's corporate government is the enemy of the people.
16
Trump's problem is that when your entire campaign is based on negativity, good news actually hurts you.
1
All these old voters have Medicare. Why don’t they want the rest of us to have it?
8
My husband’s company helps people who are looking for elder care facilities for their parents. Right after the election, the number of new sign ups for elderly care plummeted. This had never happened in the company’s history so at first they thought it was an accounting error. But after many months went by, the number of new signups started climbing up again. What happened? The prevailing theory was that many were so disgusted by their parents voting for Trump, misogyny, and racism that they found it hard to make sure their elderly parents got the care they needed.
Be careful Republican family members, if you continue to abuse the younger generations, they won’t care what happens to you. Love is almost unconditional, but it doesn’t make exceptions for racism and misogyny.
4
There is a real non-sequitur here. The fact that more older voters vote Republican does not necessarily mean that people turn Republican as they get older. It could just reflect a band of Republican voters ageing.
Remember who the people turning 65 are. They remember Nixon, Watergate, Woodstock and anti-war protests. Getting an AARP card doesn't erase memories or make people more conservative.
6
lots of people get religion as they near the pearly gates.
1
This is a very good OpEd about the messiness of our democracy. I would like to add, as the population ages, it increasingly relies on Social Security and Medicare. I believe this demographic trend will dampen Trump/Republican arguments against Medicare-for-all, and it will influence even conservative voters who will be told (with evidence) that the Republicans are aiming to decrease Social Security. In addition, as a retired 65 year old, I find I have more time to think about how the President has subverted justice and degrades his office with racist rhetoric and flat-out lies. I have friends in Michigan and Ohio my age who feel the same way and will vote for any Democratic candidate rather than the Republicans and Trump.
2
If the economy of middle America goes down the tubes or even weakens in the next year and a half, Trump is cooked for not delivering on his claim to fame.
It is the Economy, Mr.Jones. That is what corporate America is paying for. They got plenty with the tax cut and they’ve been floating on it every since. But most Americans got very little and are also being depleted because the Trump Republicans had to cough up money to pay farmers back for the losses incurred by his Tariff Plan, and the courts have allowed T. To use money for an utterly worthless Wall. Also operating against him is climate change: messing with next year’s crops as well — either too wet for too long or too dry.
The nation as a whole has increased the size of the debt and corporate America hasn’t delivered the kind of jobs and investment that Edsall and others were pushing. But you won’t hear him bad mouthing those Republicans for going against one of their most treasured party platform planks: Too much Debt!
Trump and Republicans eat our seed corn and are alarmed when some people realize they’ve been skunked. Dumb and dumber if Americans think that only a moderate response to a proto-fascist state is an escape.
4
Will you people ever admit that it was racists that elected trump. Racists are his strongest supporters. I am a 78 year old white male. I am a liberal and proud of it. I have never been contacted by a pollster.
7
Watching Boris Johnson taking UK ever so close to a No-Deal Brexit is both amusing and satisfying. Let that be the precursor to Scotland, N Ireland & Wales getting their Independence, the people's wishes honored.
The thought of four more years of Trump is more mixed on this side of the border. Holding back the cheers is Canada's proximity and close trading ties to its southern neighbor. Canada catches a bad cold when USA sneezes. Otherwise, if Americans keep Trump & his swamp creatures around can only accelerate the empire's decline, and perhaps less wars around the world.
3
Getting one year older does not magically make you Republican. The current young/old difference may be generational. So as the oldest pass away, the most conservative votes will decline. The question is whether the new entries to the old category will be equally conservative. I doubt it. I suspect people who are 65 will vote as they did when they were 64.
Also, the presidential election is based on state vote counts. If a young person migrates from a rural area to an urban area of the same state, it doesn't change the presidential outcome.
3
Yet won't those older voters have concerns about the intentions of Trump and the Republicans regarding Social Security and Medicare?
3
Pennsylvania is not the Midwest, and Iowa is not the Rust Belt. Let's keep our stories straight.
4
These people vote for a guy who knows NOTHING about their marketplace and NOTHING about tariffs, and then the rest of us have to bail them out when their poor decision causes them to go broke. My sympathy is extremely limited.
11
Remember just four years ago MI, PA, WI, and MN were the "Blue Wall"?
Focus on winning back the < 100,000 votes they lost in MI, PA, and WI 2016. This can be done without pandering to Trump voters. That play guarantees Trump loses.
7
Unfortunately it depends on the Democrats getting their act together to win those voters. Clinton ignored them on the false hope that they would just come along. The
current Democrats want to go left to pull in the big groups that already live in the areas that went for them last time. Focusing on the people that Clinton discounted should be a higher priority.
1
The problem isn’t older voters versus young voters, it is the electoral college versus the popular vote! And that really what the battle is about an older system which is now antiquated and needs to either be eliminated or revised versus what should be the new process updated for a modern century and generation of voters.
9
The electoral college has been a part of the election game since the country was young. It takes 2/3 of the states to change that rule. That’s not going to happen. Our data centric campaigners have to work with that rule and that was where Clinton went wrong, she believed her own hype.
5
Can we stop using the word heartland to describe this part of the country? It implies the other parts are the extremities or not central to America. The reality is that the vast majority of Americans don't live in Indiana, even though you've counted it twice in your list.
16
I think Rust Belt is offensive...Why do folks who own homes and businesses in the Midwest allow their part of the country to be labeled the RUST BELT?!
Some voters thought, anyone but Hillary, so they chose Stein and
got Trump. Stein was invited to Moscow for a banquet with Putin midway in the campaign. Part of Putin's plan to undermine Hillary? Likely. What did they discuss? Stein was a willing pawn.
10
I am 71 years old and all my friends are around that age. None of us will vote for Trump. Even my friends who are Republicans. When the Democratic candidate talks about how Trump and Republicans want to take away their health care including Medicare, especially for those with a pre-existing condition, that will change their minds. Republicans have also gone after Social Security Benefits. And many of us older people are terrified that climate change will endanger our grand children's future. Republicans continue to deny climate change is happening or if it is, it will be too expensive to deal with.
17
Could it be that conditions in these poor and economically failing counties are getting worse precisely because everyone with a pulse is jumping ship? As Trump notably said - yes it is difficult to mine his very few perspicacious nuggets - I love the uneducated.
5
A powerful force could be formed if primary Candidates put the same efforts after the convention towards defeating all Republicans despite not securing the nomination personally. The desire for saving democracy from the present destruction should be equally as intense.
8
Again : It’s ALL about turnout. If we Dems actually get out and Vote, we Win. That’s the “ secret “ behind GOP dominance in the Red States, and even some purple ones. If you don’t actually, Vote, you get what you deserve. And shame on you.
Seriously.
7
I usually agree wholeheartedly with your comments (and look for them), but not this one.
Those who did turn out demonstrated by popular vote whom we wanted, but the electoral college decided it otherwise.
And turning out may not be enough to stop this fascist regime from reelection as we know there is foreign interference. We have serious trouble on our hands, and turn out is just a small part of it.
3
“The report concludes with bad economic news, which is, paradoxically, good news for Trump.”
This is the key to Trump’s strategy, if he is smart enough to have one. Distract and keep blaming “others” (immigrants, people of color) for the woes of those who are scared. But never actually fix it. To actually try to fix things doesn’t reward his kleptocracy and his cronies. And keeping the downtrodden down just makes them more likely to latch onto his message of scapegoating.
3
The author writes, "Pew Research reports that from 2010 to 2017, the percentage of people who say they are liberals in the Midwest — defined broadly as Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas and Indiana — ..."
As a resident of Indiana, I salute the author for recognizing that my state is so great that it should be mentioned twice!
2
I would be very curious to know how many aging baby boomers voted for McGovern and are now trump supporters.
4
I voted for McGovern but not for Trump.
2
The wild card is the growth in marijuana/cannabis usage. The midwestern states are about 50 years behind the times.
While the west coast states and the New York/Massachusetts areas were expanding their minds in the 1960s, turning from republican/conservative/geriatric intolerance to liberal/youthful/ optimism, the hardcore rural midwest areas are first now enjoying that transformation.
More and more of this rural population, even within a few years, will become more liberal, seeing through the fog of the rigid GOP mentality centered on warfare and making more millions of dollars, for no apparent reason.
The geriatric population will also change, as the aging "hippies" will displace many of the ossified MAGA hat wearers.
BTW, note that Attorney General Bill Barr's father, Donald Barr, former headmaster of the elite Dalton school, used to ban blue jeans in his school, and sent marijuana users into "therapy" in the 1960s and 1970s. Is it any wonder that young Billy Barr grew up as he did, and appealed to bigot Donald J. Trump, a throwback to the days of fear and loathing.
1
“Polls consistently show that older voters are more Republican than younger voters...”
Pew’s research also tells us that this same older voter constituency is the least likely to value ethnic and racial diversity especially if they are conservative Republicans. That’s a potent combination and goes a long way toward explaining why these same older voters unequivocally reject Democratic policy proposals that could be of benefit to them like low cost universal healthcare. It’s obvious the Republican attack on the Democrats’ proposals always lumps healthcare together with free college, open borders, reparations, and all things “socialist.” Buttigieg was absolutely right to point that out in the debate, but pointing it out doesn’t solve the problem, and the CNN debate, which completely ignored foreign policy issues, aided and abetted the Republicans in this regard.
The Democrats all agree that we need more affordable, universal healthcare. The Republicans have clearly demonstrated they are opposed to it. That should be the Democratic point of attack. Agree on the goal and tell the public that the means needs to be worked out with a lot of public input. Sanders’ problem on the healthcare front, for example, isn’t that he’s wrong about Medicare for All. It’s that he thinks he has the only right answer. He’s not listening. It will cost him, and it should. Warren needs to find a way to step back from Sanders’ plan and demonstrate more flexibility.
9
Maybe the path to winning for Democrats isn't the Midwest and Rust Belt, but rather the South and Southwest. Could Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Texas, Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina all go for the Democrats? Changing demographics are making all of those states more blue.
7
Have any of the Democrat candidates addressed rural issues like farming, land management, or economic development in areas that in the past have relied solely on agriculture? The Republicans never actually do anything helpful for rural voters, but they do acknowledge them. They aren’t dismissive of rural America. They don’t call us flyover country. If the Democrats want to win more of the Midwest, they are going to have to acknowledge that our issues matter, too.
13
Please share with us how Republicans speak to and for the Midwest states more than Democrats. If stoking fear and loathing of immigrants and minorities speaks to them, then I would agree. If denying climate change speaks to them, then you’ve got a very good point. If paying farmers who would otherwise be destroyed by Republican-created trade tariffs, then you’ve hit it on the head. Must I go on?
6
Democrats can make the case that Midwesterners are not better off than they were four yrs. ago, because they are not. The country isn’t. The case for infrastructure projects to deliver jobs, fair wages and healthcare are paramount. Democrats have to avoid getting painted as “Socialists” and embrace more capitalism with rules. It wasn’t Trump’s “centrist” promises that captured independents and Democrats, but the promise of a revolution. They just didn’t realize that the revolution would be against Iran, where American families may lose their children fighting for another country and interests.
3
I’m 70-years old and white, both a retired police officer and retired soldier, and a great-grandfather who now lives in Utah – a very red state. I fit the stereotypical Republican, but I am not. When I look around at what Republicans have done, I can only shake my head and wonder how much more damage they can inflict on our planet, country, and on our posterity.
The thought patterns within the GOP are frightening. A changing climate? Who cares.
Endless wars and bloated Pentagon budgets? Hey, good for the defense industries whose corporate boards are filled with retired generals and admirals and whose PAC dollars fill campaign coffers.
Repress the votes of the disenfranchised? By golly, keeps the Grand Old Party in business.
Treat prospective immigrants as less than human? Well, okay the Party is filled with God-fearing hypocrites of the highest order.
Deny equality to our LGBTQ family members and friends? Yep, just following the nonsense that the pastor rants about in his Sunday morning sermons.
Tell a raped child that she must bear the rapist’s child? Why, that’s just “God’s will”, as they see it anyway.
Please, tell me one good thing about the Republican Party, just one. They are not in the least bit fiscally conservative. They are hardly the party of their much vaunted “family values.” Republican politicians are nothing but this: greedy people who care only about themselves.
767
@Wes Please, tell me one good thing about the Republican Party, just one."
Trump is in the process of destroying it.
You're welcome.
118
@CliffS Thank you!
41
@Wes
"Endless wars and bloated Pentagon budgets?..."
Excuse me, but let's not pretend that there is a peace contingent anywhere near Washington, in either party. If only we could just blame the endless conflicts on the Republicans. As if.
Obama was anything but a peacenik, initiating combat in Lybia, throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa, ratcheting up conflict in Pakistan, staying put in Afghanistan, and dabbling in Syria.
Hillary, a dyed in the wool hawk, did her very best as Sec of State to push us hip deep into the Syria bloodbath to "support the moderate rebels" and put up a no-fly zone over that country, and still bemoaned America's "lack of leadership" (i.e., going to war in Syria) after she lost the second election.
Bill Clinton was no peacnik. Carter is seen as a "wimp" by right wing hawks, but they don't recognize that it is his administration, not Reagan's, who initiated our support of the mujahedin (cum Taliban) in Afghanistan.
We haven't had a peace contingent in Washington since George McGovern.
15
It's also worthwhile to pay attention to the changing demographics in Florida. We don't know if there will be a continuing influx of Puerto Ricans who are eligible to vote (but will they?). Nor is it clear how the enfranchisement of ex-felons will play out. The large number of electoral votes may be more pivotal than in previous elections and it's not clear who is favored at present.
3
Yes, the world is upside-down; but it does not need to be so at a local community level, where democrats must be creative in driving their points, social justice for all, affordable health care included (it is), embrace the richness of our diversity, and make sure to emphasize everybody must be included in this fight, recover the beauty, and truth, of having a democratic country. Furthermore, remind folks that no one ought to be above the law, in spite of it's insistence by the current vulgar demagogue in-chief...flaunting it.
3
I'm one of those older Midwest voters, related to and surrounded by many others.
This article doesn't get it.
Nobody liked Trump.
Many detested Hillary.
It wasn't Her personality. She was up against Mr. Obnoxious. Nobody could lose to Trump in a personality contest.
It was what She'd done, and what she clearly would not do if elected, and how electing Her would prevent anybody else from doing what needed to be done.
Yes, it was how She cheated Bernie, but more important it was how She made clear She would NEVER do the things needed that Bernie advocated.
You see, here in the Midwest we were not happy with the status quo. We didn't get the recovery. We were still mired in Dubya's mess, and She told us that was all we'd ever get from Her.
Now Trump? He lied. He was however full of energy and enthusiasm and promised things, though no thoughtful person believed the promises. But that was the only other choice.
Worse, there was the future. Hillary blocked the way to any better future. Trump opened the way, because he was so awful he'd wreck the Republican Party. And he has.
So now the way is open. Yet the "lesson" seen here is to close it down again. The lesson is to be "safe."
Safe is not doing what already lost to Trump. Now that he is an incumbent with a decent economy, he can't be defeated in the Midwest by doing again what did not work last time.
24
@Mark Thomason
I have never seen it said so well.
BTW, Even though I read all, or most reader's comment, when I don't, I always scan through to look for yours!
5
@Mark Thomason
Agreed. I heard it from many people, even young people: "anybody but Hillary."
4
I always wonder about blanket statements about age and political disposition and the "aging" of a geographic area. the words "aging faster" are really funny to me.... have they entered a time warp? a dimension where aging occurs at a faster rate than elsewhere?
as someone who long ago escaped from midwestern dogma? I think the changing dynamics in the midwest have mostly to do with young people leaving as soon as they can. the type of conservatism the midwesterners cling to is oppressive. how you gonna' keep 'em down on the farm?
1
I'm a third generation Democrat. And that background includes a college professor and a steel mill worker.
Democrats weren't about money or education. They were about taking care of people.
I find it very embarassing that many people apparently voted for Trump because they thought he cared about their struggling--more than the Democrats.
I find it embarassing that the Democrats have spelled it out--that their future is with young people, women, and minorities.
How can you claim to care about a nation's people and then specify who you mean? Or blame people who want a return to a peaceful, properous time and lost it through no fault of their own?
I am still a Democrat and will remain one. But the smugness and superiority of many fellow Democrats is disgusting.
22
@Talbot
This horror show of an administration daily fights against truth, decency and equality for all our citizens. This is the first President in my own lifetime, who vulgarly derides and ridicules other Americans and American institutions.
There will be no 'returning to a peaceful, prosperous time' with this man and his grifter allies in charge. Only the Democrats care about the 99%.
6
During the early 60’s, I was a member of The New Christy Minstrels. One of my favorite songs was “It’s gonna be fine.”
That’s probably a sound philosophy when looking towards the future. It’s getting to that better place that causes us the despair.
One advantage of being in your 80’s is that you can spread the up’s and down’s of life over a longer period. When I was growing up, we only had Radio, Newspapers and our weekly Newsreels at the movies. Life was pretty simple! If you wanted to check up anything, you had to go to the library and read about “old news!”
Today, with a touch of my Ipad or Iphone, I can look up almost anything! Opinions are everywhere, and they’re FREE! The hardest thing is trying to figure out Truth from Fiction!
What troubles me most is how people discern Truth! The President of the United States has outwardly lied over 10,000 times and counting. Once Truth becomes passé, there’s only one direction a society can fall, and that’s down! Every previous Empire that has fallen did so when Truth was no longer relevant.
My hope; NO, MY PRAYER is that good people will come to their senses and STOP this madness.
20
Zero to do with your comment, but wanted to comment about the New Christy Minstrels and the impact one version of one song had on my life. Growing up, we had one record album of Christmas music, and the first song was, “We Need A Little Christmas” by the New Christy Minstrels. When my sister and I were ready to get into the Christmas spirit, we’d play that record, and that song became more than just a song, it became a mantra. I would and still do hum it when I feel blue, or frustrated, or dour about anything. I’ve shared that sentiment with my husband and kids so now we all share that.
....Perhaps this comment is in regards to your comment and the state of this country right now, as we all have grown a little colder, a little sadder, a little older, and we need that spirit of love, kindness, generosity, fellowship, and hope right now.
Thanks.
5
I always wonder about blanket statements about age and political disposition and the "aging" of a geographic area. the words "aging faster" are really funny to me.... have they entered a time warp? a dimension where aging occurs at a faster rate than elsewhere?
as someone who long ago escaped from midwestern dogma? I think the changing dynamics in the midwest have mostly to do with young people leaving as soon as they can. the type of conservatism the midwesterners cling to is oppressive. how you gonna' keep 'em down on the farm?
I am 74, and I have 3 words for people 60 and over who continuously vote Republican: You are selfish. You enjoy, or will enjoy, your Social Security and Medicare. Most of you had steady jobs with benefits before we started sliding into the gig economy. All the advantages you have had in life are being eroded, and will eventually disappear under Republican rule.
I have 2 children, 3 grandchildren and 4 great-grandchildren. It is of the utmost importance to me that they have every opportunity in life. Older people who vote Republican obviously don't care. Shame on you.
65
Aging has its consequences, and I should know approaching 74. I clearly understand how wonderful youth is, wishing to return to that period of time but realize it a fantasy, For almost everyone, retirement is a period of being left behind economically and socially. So its little wonder that the aging population of rural Mid-West America would like to turn back the hands of time. “Make American Great Again” has become the “Mirror, Mirror, on the wall” for the Trumpers. It’s an empty hope, Just as Trump has shown, but nonetheless shared by a surprising majority of Republicans who dream of the vibrancy and successfulness of their youth. But just try blindly facing the future with the old bones of the past only to see youth lead the country forward.
6
We can only hope that some of those older folks have been around enough to recognize a huckster when they see one, and will either stay at home or hold their noses and vote Democratic.
But there's another dynamic at work here. The rural lifestyle is going to become as obsolete as hunter-gatherers and agrarian societies. The future of humanity is in densely-packed cities with elites in control of the countryside and the food supply. I don't care for this, but I believe it is a fact, and that the difficulty of living a rural lifestyle is evidence that it is a work in progress.
Of course there will be exceptions, but they will mostly consist of people who work to produce food, the wealthy and their servants, and some people who manage to work remotely.
The normal rural people will either age out or go kicking and screaming into the urban centers. Voting for an obvious huckster for them is a form of grasping at straws.
4
There are a minority of Democrats/independents in South Dakota. We tend to not be very vocal because of our limited numbers and this has to change. Democrats in the midwest need to speak up and speak up loudly to friends, newspaper opinion columns, really anyone who will listen even briefly. We need to emphasize the need for expanded healthcare, the threat of climate change, and condemn the tone that the current President sets for the country - a very bad and divisive one.
13
And yet these older voters are so bent on alienating the younger voters they will so desperately need to take care of them in their twilight years.
4
"The Midwest remains undecided, but conflicting trends point alternately toward victory for Trump or his eventual opponent."
Two phrases come to mind reading the subtitle of this piece.
Vacuum Packed and Content Free
Why would anyone continue to read Mr. Edsall's prose today unless he/she thinks we won't be having an election in 2020.
Of course Trump will be the candidate of the cowardly and he will have an eventual opponent.
1
I disagree with the author's premise regarding age demographics. Those polls were from one snapshot in time, in 2016. As voters age, they (we) do not suddenly become Trump supporters. Trump offers nothing for our aging population to vote for him, only slogans and empty promises.
8
The young (well, the educated young) have left the now ironically called heartland--in droves. Now we just have to wait for the older Republican welfare sustained farmers to die. Hopefully they do before we become a tyranny.
3
I'm hearing the same sounds at the plants as I did before Trump won last time -- in fact it's a little louder.
People voted against an entitled, disliked candidate last time ... it was no different than 08. When people had a choice w/ President Obama ... they took it. Had HRC not been in the race back in 08 I don't think he would have been president.
Trump was the anti Clinton (they were over Bill as well)
Now I'm hearing ... I can't vote for "X" (plug in any of the front runners). Is it fear ? I don't know .. But, they don't like the progressive policies. They like Trumps view/policy on a lot of things and wish he would just shut up .. no one understand it.
Here is the thing -- no one I talk to is going to vote for "X" .... Once again they are voting against the DEM .. not voting for Trump.
Most NYT readers don't get out enough -- looks at the locations .. most readers are liberal -- the comets reinforce an incorrect narrative .. as do most of the articles.
4
Although I agree that older voters have historically voted for Republicans, I'm not sure that if follows that as the population ages, it will shift from leaning Democrat to leaning Republican. The implication of that would be that as people age, they change their allegiance.
1
Yada yada yada. Until you talk about the most important demographic group of all - suburban women - you ain't got nothing.
1
The level of education is very low in the USA . Highest violent crime rate in the industrialized world , highest incarceration rate ( both 8 times more than in Europe where there is free education and health care ) . The education of Americans is fast food, obsolete religious morals, cars, the police, prisons, TV commercials, bad Hollywood films . Americans have no culture outside the mercantile world.
8
@JPH you just indicted 327.2 million people with one broad, ignorant sweep. People from all over the world who come to America and become citizens too.
Apparently, discrete viewing and critical thinking concerning entire countries and the ability to drill down to see culture is not your strong suit.
1
@Mary On the contrary. I have a knowledge of statistics. and also references about the difference of the level in education between the USA and Europe.
You are a victim of your psychology of the Self which wants to protect you from characterization but the USA as a civil religion are indeed just that. And Trumps proves it.
Public education s very bad in the USA and it only goes up to high school level.
1
As a 60 yo former Republican living in a very rural area, it boggles my mind why anyone older than 50 would possibly support Trump or the Republican party. Do they not need their pre-existing health conditions covered? Do they want Medicare privatized? Will they never need Medicaid to help cover the cost of a nursing home? What about Social Security? Deficit? Why do these people continue to vote against their own well being?
15
However, too many rural Americans only watch Fox News or listen to Rush Limbaugh and right wing radio, so they probably don't even realize what really going on in US politics.
9
@JMWB They hate the way the country is now. They see Democrats celebrating things they don't like and vote for Trump.
2
@JMWB
I call it the de-education of America. It is fascinating to watch from the outside in. Having school curricula decided upon by school board vote is astounding to me. When your education system teaches creation alongside evolution it is a harbinger of doom. How can students possibly be expected to discern truth from lies when lies have been presented as truth from such a young age? You see that effect in the news today. When people believe in pizza pedophile rings but are incredulous in the face of overwhelming evidence supporting anthropogenic climate change you have some real issues. It seems to stem from a lack of ability to see truth. When a country has such a large amount of the populace that cannot discern the truth you are very susceptible to a lying demagogue like Trump. I hope for the best for you all but when you elect someone like Trump who disparages allies and loves despots it really makes me(and a growing minority up north here) lose faith in the friendship between our two nations. Trump has damaged so much more on an international level than most Americans realize. You have become and adversary instead of a friend. That is a terrifying proposition for continental peace and co-operation.
11
Sanders and Warren 7 the other demos are absolite as candidates. As a whole the demos ideology has shifted so far left that they don't belong anymore in main stream America. Trump will win re-election easily, and if the demos will not straighten up the USA will be a strong republic lead by the GOP for a long time. The progressive and the Squad are a live manifestations of Trump wildest dreams. God, summoned by the prayers of the evangelists, must be on Trump's side.
@lieberma your extreme left is very right wing in most developed countries of the world. Taking care of the sick and elderly is not a political issue in other countries. Spending money on bombs versus education is not an issue in other countries. Whether Trump is a lying buffoon or a stable genius is not an issue in other countries. America has become a bubble of misinformation and greed that the rest of the world can see but Americans themselves do not. That is the problem that needs to be solved. You need to get past this post truth era and enter one where compassion and truth matter once again. If you do not than I fear your republic will splinter. Up north we would gladly accept your coastal states(down to DC) into our confederation but that is not something that would occur without a great deal of pain.
6
Democratic strategy to win the votes of older voters, liberal and conservative, seems obvious: focus on Republican hostility to SS and Medicare, universal Democratic support for it. George W tried to privatize SS. For reasons I cannot fathom, Mitch McConnell publicly spoke of repealing SS (long a core Republican goal) just before the midterms. The House should immediately pass a bill that puts SS on a solid long term footing by removing the wage limit against which the payroll tax is assessed (perhaps with a donut above the current $128K). When The Senate refuses to take it up, The Republican's true colors will be clear.
Trump's budget proposal would cut a colossal amount of money from Medicare. A large Medicare expansion, whether "for all" or as an "option" safeguards Medicare by expanding its constituency, ie- those who would vote out of office anyone who voted to diminish it.
10
There's an obstinance to Democrats (of which I am one) that concerns me. There is a refusal to accept reality, which is that Trump voters feel aggrieved. It doesn't matter if these Republicans are old or young or Midwestern or not. They have a point of view. It may not be mine or yours, but if we keep ignoring it, or condescending to it, we will lose in 2020. Our party is absolutely tone deaf, and I get how we are perceived. Our Republican brothers and sisters believe that if others gain something (ie, immigrants, minorities) it means they automatically 'lose.' Like it or not, Republicans are the party of 'personal responsibility.' I would say that's a laudable trait. Every time some Democrat opens their mouth about slavery reparations or some sort of perk for illegal immigrants, I die a bit inside. If your child is aggrieved because his sibling got a bigger or better toy - what is the natural response? The natural response is to empathize with him and see what you can do to make him feel better. Why can't Democrats understand that they must accept reality instead of pretending it doesn't exist? If a portion of the country feels aggrieved, is it really that hard to respect their point of view? I believe that if Democrats had any messages about personality responsibility, and the need for it, we would win every 4 years. This has nothing to do with cutting social programs that don't need to be cut; it's all about empathy. Immigrants aren't the only people who deserve it.
9
The MSM, including the estimable Edsall, always ignore the incontrovertible fact that the 2016 Rust Belt exit polls proved that the real Bernie would have crushed Trump, who only played angry Bernie on TV, in the region and implicitly would have won nationally going away.
Think about this. Trump is going to win because the US citizens cannot find it in themselves to help the less fortunate, even when the less fortunate are themselves.
A nation of people who are as cruel and selfish as the US citizens deserves to be ruled by oligarchs and fascists.
16
I live in the rural upper Midwest in a manufacturing and farming community. This county is as red as they come in the state. This doesn’t make economic sense for the most part, but the GOP has embraced rural voters in a way that the Democrats haven’t. The GOP essentially told them that they are our people, while the Democrats are urban hipsters who only care about gender identity and handouts to minorities. There is a messaging war going on here, and the Republicans are winning it. I miss the days when Midwest Democrats like Conrad, Dorgan, Pomeroy, and Wellstone made it clear that rural voters matter, and healthy economics lift all of us up.
4
This is very interesting analysis. Thank you, Mr. Edsall.
The situation in the Midwest brings to mind the relationship between California out-migration and the "bluing" trend in a number of western states. Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona and even Texas have become friendlier territory for Democrats in recent cycles, in part because a lot of moderate and liberal Californians have moved to these states.
It would appear that the Midwest hasn't attracted a great deal of inbound migration in recent years -- from either international or domestic sources. But given the increasing appeal and considerable vitality of many of the region's metro areas, I can't help but wonder if the Midwest might begin to exert some of the same attraction for easterners that many western states have long had for Californians. A close-to-the-office condo in a trendy, walkable, up and coming neighborhood in Kansas City or Madison might hold a lot of appeal to a person struggling to get onto the housing ladder in New York or Boston.
(Incidentally, the NYC, DC and Boston CSAs have a combined population almost identical to the state of California).
This analysis appears to assume that voting behavior changes as voters change, that's not the full story, voters born in different eras also vote differently.
1
The numbers presented in the first part of the essay are somewhat misleading. I question the significance of the growth of voters over the age of 65 vs 18-35. Reaching 65 is not true growth as these are not actual new voters. 600000 people over the age of 65 did not relocate to these states. On the other hand , the new 18 year olds represent actual new voters , despite the reality that proportionally they are a smaller part of the population. If energized, they will vote overwhelmingly democratic.
3
The Electoral College system makes it clear that these Midwest states are key. The Democrats baffle me with their support of things that are clearly not popular at large, and especially with these swing voters in the Midwest. They should be pointing out that the Republicans are on record as saying they want to reduce or scrap Medicare and Social Security. They should be screaming about drug prices. Talk about the things that people want and care about.
1
Your analysis of voters 65 plus leaves out important data. People don't change how they vote simply because of their birthday. So how did all those new 65 plus folks vote when they were 61-64 years old in the last election?
5
@Big Electric Cat It works both ways. Trump would have won Minnesota - a State that hasn’t gone red in a presidential election since 1972 – if not for the 4% that voted for Gary Johnson and the 2% that voted for Evan Mullin. If those votes had gone to Trump, the 1% of voters that cast a ballot for Jill Stein couldn’t have saved Hillary in Minnesota. Third Party voters are not the enemy, and if we want them to cast their votes for a major party candidate in 2020 we do ourselves no favors by continuing to demonize them.
3
The middle of the country is lost, stuck in the dark ages just like the south. Trump will win the Electoral College in 2020, but lose the popular vote by 10 million. Proving, once again, that what's upside down is our election system.
5
@Jason - If you read the article - and visit and observe objectively, which it appears you have not - you will find more nuance. Chicago is nearly as blue as Brooklyn AND it nurtured Barack Obama. Meanwhile, one of the bedrock areas of conservatism in Michigan, Grand Rapids, is much less red than Staten Island, and it produced the only (former) Republican to call for impeachment, Justin Amash. Dark ages? That seems a stretch.
2
As if getting Democrats elected was the actual problem, instead of getting Democrats to realize that they need policies people in the Midwest want, so they can be elected on those policies.
It doesn't matter in the long run whether the demographics favor a party on not. In the long run, getting and holding power is a matter of shaping your policies to fit the electorate, instead of waiting for the voters to accommodate themselves to you.
Of course that assumes you have a coherent unified party in the first place.
1
I'm a 50 white educated former Christian living in MN 6th. My former pastor, neighbors, etc., are Trumpers. Michele Bachmann my former, Silent Trump Sycophant Tom Emmer my current.
It's a life changing event to find out many people you see every day wear masks.
Now, I do too.
We're moving soon, we're just not sure where.
Regards as I'm watching Westworld the movie, reflecting on being recently threatened for my removable two word factual bumper magnet - 'Trump Lies'.
263
@Meadowlark Lemmy
Best user name in the comments section, by the way. I'm currently sharing your "pop culture shock." I'm reading Frederic Rich's "Christian Nation," a book published in 2013 that I'd not heard of and picked up second hand. It's horrifying how much of what he described in a fictional setting six years ago has already taken place in our current reality. Beaten down by an increasingly hostile Bible Belt, we too are plotting our escape.
69
@Meadowlark Lemmy After 60 years in TX, life in the blue state of NM is politically so much better than I could ever have expected although there can be some frustrations here also. I'm sorry I took so long to get out of the Bible Belt madness of small closed minds.
61
@JB. I hear you about the bible belt. I was raised in SC and it was the first thing I noticed when we moved there in 1971. People tell me that racism is everywhere, and, yeah, I agree, it is. But so far, the south is the only place I've lived where it is so acceptable and people will talk to me as if I feel that way too. In the larger, more economically vigorous cities and towns like Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville (SC), and Asheville, things have gotten better. I do see that, but it is because they have attracted a more diverse and educated workforce from other parts of the country and internationally. But talk to the long-time residents, those whose families have lived there for generations, well, that's another story, and education and income make little difference. I see the posts on FB, they don't like the newcomers, the "libs", etc.
44
The 2020 election will, in the swing states, be decided not by liberal vs. conservative, or by old vs. young, but by rural vs. urban. This, in microcosm, is what is happening to the country as whole.
The rural areas feel that they are left behind, and that the future of the country is a zero-sum game. In a zero-sum game to win, or at least to stay where you are, you need to make the "others" lose. And Trump has made it clear who the "others" are - immigrants and people of color. And the message "send her back" is not lost on the rural voters.
But the urban (and suburban) areas are moving ahead. So they do not view the "others" as enemies but either as a neutral factor or indeed as an asset who will "grow" the economy.
So, to a large extent the rural voters will go with Trump. To win the Democrats need to motivate the urban and suburban voters to give their support. And this means both getting young and minority voters to the polls, rather than sitting at home, and convincing the "purists" that a vote for a third-party candidate is, in reality, a vote for Trump.
It was often said of many a third world nation that the people had a free election … one time. It may also be said of this country that we may have just one more free election … if we don't all get together in opposition to the candidate running on a policy of bigotry and hatred.
303
@John Graybeard
I will never understand third-party voters throwing their votes into the trash bin because they don't 'like' either of the the candidates. This country doesn't have a parliamentary system akin to all other advance nations where coalitions have to be founded to have a functioning government.
In addition, the US still has the by far lowest voter turnout of all OECD nations, whereas a voter turnout below 75% in other countries would be considered as being shamefully low.
56
@Sarah I've voted third-party rather than support weak Dems. I have the luxury of voting for third party candidates because my state will inevitably elect a Dem and we don't currently have a National Popular Vote.
My reasons for voting 3rd-party is that there was little daylight between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. Before you scream, that's not true, look at:
Defense - both were in favor of strong defense spending and endless wars.
Immigration - don't forget Obama was the deporter-in-chief who left deportation infrastructure in place for Trump to use.
Corporations - both support neo-liberal views and Romney just said what Obama believed - "Corporations are people, my friend."
Trade - both were free traders, both cared more about the multinational corporations succeeding than their own citizens.
This year only Bumbling Old Joe is a neo-liberal shill. There is hope that I may vote for one of them this cycle. Especially because I absolutely believe in Warren and Sanders. I couldn't say that about HRC in 2016.
4
@Sarah The people who vote for third party candidates fit into three groups: innocent idealists who do not know much about politics, ideologues who see perfection in a fringe candidate whom they do not know well, and those who are against all authority.
28
This piece reinforces the view that the Republican President is playing rural vs. urban voters against each other, hoping to replicate his victory in the mentioned 207 counties which flipped to him from Obama in 2016.
He has been using every possible imaginable trick to accomplish his task of dividing voters, and singles out cities in blue states for criticism, ignoring cities (many run by Dems) in red states.
It's transparent political calculus, which will hopefully bring ruin upon the Complicit Republicans running for office other than POTUS - poetic justice for their brand.
186
@R. Law. Handouts to farmers help here too. Apparently they are all excited to give Trump a second chance.
7
I would say to the over-60 voter in the so-called Rust Belt or anywhere else, the Republicans want to reduce or privatize both Social Security and Medicare. Can you retire on that?
433
@me I DID Google it. Here's what I found...
(If you don't know the definition of "compromise", Google it.)
The Grand Bargain was an attempted political compromise between the Democratic and Republican Parties in the United States during the 2011 budget debates, in which the Democrats would have agreed to historic cuts in the federal government and the social safety net, in exchange for an increase in federal taxes.[1] However, due to the rise of the Tea Party, any increased taxes were unpalatable to the Republican base, while President Obama's base was generally opposed to the possibility of cuts, causing the compromise to fail.[2][3][4]
53
@me
You are being a tad disingenuous it would seem in describing Obama's approach with Boehner to try to clean up deficits brought on by Republican policies like Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy. Hmmm... where have I heard this record again?
48
@me
ohhhhh. Sounds like you're cherry picking to create your alternate reality.
Thanks @Starkfarm for fact checking that nonsense.
29
What’s left unsaid in this excellent analysis is how the old-young, rural-urban divide plays out in families. My parents voted for Trump and, stoked by Fox News, express active hatred for city-living liberals like me, their own daughter. They live in a small, dying town and have little if any interaction with those who don’t share their views. It definitely drives a wedge between us.
547
@Kate This is a spot on and sad comment. Bitterness can trump family loyalty and self interest. Donald knows how to exploit that to his advantage. Like other commenters, I hope that in 2020 rust belt and rural voters wake up to the facts that city folk are not the enemy, and self interest is served by voting "D".
125
@Kate: I have read comments in a similar vein before but none as depressing as yours. I cannot understand how a fraud like Donald Trump can bring a set of parents to hate their daughter. If a foul man like that can throw up a wall (so to speak) between you and your parents, is nothing good under heaven’s roof?
123
What’s left unsaid is heartbreaking: “trump” voters have either relented to, are silent about, or eagerly embrace his racist agenda. Even in the face of his criminality and amorality. That calculation on behalf of his adherents is horrifically scary and dangerous, and the outcropping of violence are already in play. And your parents know it. Think about that.
It’s sad to see the republic being torn apart by a cheap con man.
117
RE: "Polls consistently show that older voters are more Republican than younger voters"
When will the new reality of Republicans taking health care, threatening Social Security and Medicare, reducing or eliminating services that benefit the older population catch up with their voting habits.
I am older now with an even older mother and I can't imagine voting for Republicans as I once did in my youth. They are working too hard against us.
441
@Raul Campos
Sounds like the perfect rationalization just to get rid of it all, doesn't it?
https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf
If the the concerns were limited to SS you might have a point. But GOP animus for the older population goes so far beyond that to the eliminating of regulations for facilities that provide health care and long term for the aging, to their regulations that leave their wealth vulnerable to finance companies, to the lack of protecting the air and water that the aging are more sensitive to, the eliminate of programs for the aging, and so on.
Home equity? You can't expect to live out your life in the home you worked a life to own?
Regular people worked their whole lives in hopes of having a little something, live at home, and maybe pass on the house - like the wealthy can. But no, costs are so high (since they now have to supplement) they have to sell their home just to keep themselves alive.
Meanwhile only the wealthy can retain their's. Further consolidating their wealth, and further increasing the gap between them and everyone else.
The equations have changed with the stagnation of income for those now entering retirement compared to their fore bearers.
Protecting the wealthy in gated communities from outsiders isn't enough for the Republicans to claim being good for older voters.
18
@Raul Campos The key word is "supplement." For most older Americans, if their Social Security goes down 25% which it will if nothing is done by 2033, they will take a hit.
4
People who wonder why citizens often seem to vote against their interests should keep in mind an experiment that’s been repeated several times with the same results. It goes like this: People are placed in pairs and one member of each pair is offered $100. This person is told that he or she can decide if and whether to share any of the money with their partner. The partner’s only choice is whether to accept or refuse the offer. The kicker is that if the partner refuses the offer neither of them gets anything. Every time this experiment is conducted a surprising percentage of people reject the offer made by their partner when the partner’s offer is a relatively small amount of the $100 even though they end up with nothing themselves. The lesson seems to be that people are more concerned with what they consider to be fundamental fairness than with immediate self interest. Certain voters have, for decades, bought into the notion, promoted by both the Republican Party and its subsidiary, Fox News, that government programs, such as welfare and affirmative action, unfairly benefit women and minorities. This leads them to vote Republican even when many of the party’s policies harm them.
1
Trump won the Electoral College because of 77,744 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
If everyone in just those three states who voted for Green Party candidate Jill Stein had instead cast their votes for the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton would be president.
Let that sink in.
580
@Big Electric Cat We have a relative who voted for Jill Stein, and her rational was that there was no difference between Trump and Clinton. We don't see her very often, and every time we do, I want to ask her what her thoughts are now. In any event, we live in a blue state, so her vote did not matter.
46
@Big Electric Cat
Bernie is creating a new democracy party (far different than the dollar-drenched and entrenched old Democratic Party of which Christopher Hitchens said two decades ago was “not so much dead, as actually, visibly, and palpably rotting on the slab”) similar to, but the polar opposite of this new Trumpian Empire Party.
‘We the American people’ have only two choices in the voting booths (and/or the streets) to pull the lever marked ‘democracy’ or the lever marked ‘Empire’, as we and all ‘citizens of our world’ choose global democracy or Global Empire in this globalized world.
Think carefully about your children and grand-children before you pull that lever.
27
@Big Electric Cat
Jill Stein wouldn't even be an asterisk if the DNC had not rammed Hilary down our throats. The sad fact that "the most experienced candidate in history" managed to eke out 3 millions votes more than an ignorant buffoon - from 130 million cast! - is nothing to crow about. Yeah, so let's all blame Jill Stein... Unfortunately, it seems the leadership has learned nothing in the interim.
Now we find the same timorous corporate forces at work, trying their utmost to anoint Joe Biden with Hillary's lost term, or Obama's third term, depending on how you choose to look at it.
68
Ironically, the declining life expectancy of americans may deprive the republicans of those voters who tend to support them. lf the GOP no longer believes in the "For the people" part of Lincoln's saying then maybe "for the GOP" will get them to do something about health care.
3
Left out of this discussion is the fact that Trump will have more than one opponent in 2020. In 2016 I voted for Jill Stein (no regrets) in a state where if all of the Jill Stein voters had voted for Clinton she would have won -- the state and the Electoral College.
If the Democrats nominate another militarist, I'll vote third party again.
@Robert Great idea! Voting for a third party didn't work last time. So Why not do it again.
8
@Photomette
There was no such thing as "working" in the race between the two major-party candidates last time. I'm hoping that there will be in 2020.
From the point of view of the GOP, the real question is what about Texas. Bento only lost by two points in 2016 and it continues to shift to the blue. Polls show that it is definitely in play this election. If the GOP loses Texas, it will be impossible for them to put together a winning combination of states.
I have a very simple question to ask any Trump supporter: "Are you a racist, bigot, xenophobe or a misogynist?" If you answer "No" then you should not be voting for Trump. If you are voting for Trump then you are one of those four identifiers, if not more, and shouldn't consider yourself a moral person. Any "Christian" who votes for Trump is a hypocrite no matter how they may rationalize their choice. The state of the economy has little to do with the President and more to do with the world economy and the Fed. Anyone who watches Fox News is watching "State TV" with little information of alternative opinions. Boycott Fox News if you wish to save our democracy.
11
Interesting data that excludes the most salient point... Trump did not win the election, the democrats lost it (and by democrats I mean 'democratic voters', not Clinton), by simply not voting or by 'protest voting'. Democrats substantially 'have' the popular votes and the Electoral College votes to win, if we don't cannibalize the party again via wildly unsubstantiated promises and calls for 'revolution'. Have fun 'rooting' in the primaries, but once the nomination is set, there are only 2 flavors -- vote the democratic flavor even if it's vanilla.
2
During a normal election, most voters remain relatively uneducated about the candidates and vote party or the most recent attack ad. In 2018, and I think again in 2020 pretty much every voter had or will have a moderately strong to strong opinion about trump. So, like 2018 a lot of voters will go to the polls feeling either disgust or delight for trump and will vote accordingly.
5
As I speak with friends in that region (generally moderates) I believe they are not voting just for Republicans. They would vote for a white male (preferably tall), who has done military duty, has some political experience, and does not take positions supportive of illegal immigrants. That person is Seth Moulton.
1
Edsel has consistently put older people in the Republican pocket. But, polls only show a 7% difference between R & D. 41% of the elderly (myself included) are staunch Democrats. Fear of losing Medicare and Social Security is a starting point for the Democrats. But some older Americans did some good investments so the fear of larger taxes on investments will not win these people over. The ones that lost a lot of their investments in 2008 are either already Democrats or can be won over.
We need sensible representatives to contend with some of the more wild ideas of some of the Democratic candidates. If Warren would agree to a phase-out her need for Universal health care with a buy-in option to the ACA she would get more traction.
Democrats repeatedly need to put the fear of losing Medicare and Social Security benefits by quoting McConnell's and Ryan's goals.
They should also run on the cruelty of stopping the school lunch program for kids and equate it with the locked up, dirty, starving kids on the border, as the Republicans hate children.
5
Um, Trump won by 10,000 votes in Michigan. If James Comey hadn't come out with his nothing "findings," I wonder if he'd have won, not to mention Russian interference. How is overcoming 10,000 votes in one state a "steep climb"? Besides, now that people have had a good luck at the person in the Oval Office, I suspect they might be just a bit mortified.
3
Looking at the 2016 primary map, and it looks like progressive policies are much more popular than centrist ones.
The centrist lost (and the center moved further right).
Ever play tug-of-war? The end of the rope is where you pull hardest.
Kids need to visit the grandparents more, and plead with them to turn off Fox.
45
Yes. Young adults across America. You mean more to your grandparents then the president. Talk loving to them about the future you will inherit with climate deniers and tax cuts to the rich. It’s a no brainer including the presidents racist and womanizing ways basically how rude and crude his presentation representing Us has been.
3
“... when the local economy improves, the tendency of voters to blame people they perceive as outsiders — racial minorities and immigrants — diminishes...”
Ironic, isn’t it, that economic prosperity inherently favors more progressive attitudes. Strangely enough, one can see clear signs in GOP orthodoxy dating back for decades that seeks to leverage economic anxiety to elect useful idiots like the current White House occupant. That a strong economy will favor Democrats is the best news I’ve heard for a long time.
5
Yes, age plays a factor in elections but the largest problem facing the Democrats is the electoral college. Small states with more horses and cows than people use the leverage provided by the electoral college to keep their Republican supporters in power. On election eve the Republicans start out with an electoral advantage regardless of the popular vote. This is what keeps Republicans in the White House.
3
@Desmo Exactly right, and until the Electoral College allocations change, it won't matter at all how many more people vote for the Democrat in places they've already won. It is essential to win more votes in the places that went for trump in 2016. Otherwise he wins again and all the agonizing over policy is meaningless.
1
I live in rural Central NY. My town voted for Trump in 2916. Our economy is not booming. Young people are moving away and there is no reason for other young people to come here. Few good jobs. None of the kind of activities young people seem to enjoy.
My neighbors are aging retirees who are fundamentally religious and politically conservative. Many of them are also racist and prejudiced against immigrants.
I'm pretty sure Trump will win in this precinct no matter who runs against him. Already his supporters are flying flags and putting up signs in their yards.
The sad thing is that Trump will do nothing to address the problems in this community. If anything, his policies will make them worse.
14
Wouldn't it be easier and more effective if we had a democracy where every vote counted as much as every other?
21
Trumps base is a revelation to many Americans who thought rabid racism was a thing of the past.
But Trump has easily awakened the worst instincts in millions of Americans including our neighbors who we trusted and respected.
America isn’t what we thought it was!
18
@Michael Kittle - Agreed! I'm also shocked. I've spent my life in small, rural burgs and have always known that there was some (R)acism about but mostly discounted it. In a macabre way, GoodBrain did me a favor by letting me know the ugly reality.
1
Trump has built his wall, psychologically, and we are all paying for it.
1
I just met a 49-year-old casual laborer yesterday who was helping on my gutter project. He's a Trump supporter because "the economy is growing and unemployment is down." I asked him, "Growing for whom? And how's this gig economy working for you? Are you getting ahead?" He also was against the ACA. I had to explain to him that the ACA isn't health insurance; it's just a way to obtain it and a series of policies about coverage. My experience with MAGAts is that they are either poorly educated, poorly informed Fox watchers or well educated sociopaths.
92
@Katrin - It's telling that GoodBrain brags about it, saying, "I love the poorly educated" and they still support him! Apparently, they think he's talking about them other "poorly educateds"?
7
@Katrin As I have finally discovered to my sorrow, it is impossible to convince Trump supporters of anything using facts and logic. If they had any interest in facts and logic they would not be Trump supporters.
17
@Katrin
The rich are not always well-educated. When I commented on social media immediately after the election about the undereducated white folks swinging the election, I got an ear full from a wealthy (and high school educated) relative whose progeny are afraid to visit "elitist liberal coast" regions because "they're so liberal". Meanwhile, they share derisive memes about millennials being conscious about the environment while driving in an RV that costs several times the US median house price.
7
Hmm...could have sworn we heard these exact same predictions for the '16 primaries.
*We've got to cater to the moderates...*
Could it be that the pundits don't really know the Midwest and it's inhabitants?
The self declared moderate LOST the Midwest.
To a Leftie.
The same states that cost the moderate a win against the supposed *change candidate* in the general.
Bernie Sanders won the Midwest last primary. He won every single county in WI but one; last primary. He can win that missing single this time around.
Could it be that the experts don't really know who and what those Midwest voters want?!
It seems that way to me.
They're repeating the same doom 'n gloom as previously.
Guess we should just channel our inner Trump candidate to win.
Right guys?!
Please...
Run on progressive policy's that promise change. That help the common wo/man and their children's future. The status quo isn't working for the Midwest (basically for the 99%) and they want, are, voting for change.
Give it to them.
https://tulchinresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Tulchin-Research-Memo-Sanders-Defeating-Trump-in-Industrial-Battleground-States-4-19-final.pdf
2
All this data and analysis ignores the alpha elephant in the room.
Voting generic Republican, as much as I may disagree, is explicable. Voting for Trump specifically is disgraceful.
If the Democrats manage to lose to such a grotesque, absurd character--again-- it should result in a wholesale purging of the Democratic apparatchiks on whose watch it was allowed to happen.
6
Admit it. This country is failing. The message should not be about the inevitable "angry white guy" versus "free stuff" that will pack ( PAC) the airwaves next year. The Dems need a JFK like figure who will appeal to enough of those who are not hyper partisan. "Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you."
4
This is a very thorough analysis of data based on polls and demographic data. Where does FACEBOOK information show the trending? All the polls were wrong or inadequate in 2016. Trump kept citing his “hidden Trump voters” whom only his Facebook-data wizard Brad Parscale could see. Mr. Parscale is now campaign manager. If we aren’t looking at the vote-getting through the lens of Facebook, we might not be seeing the true picture.
3
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have to appeal to older Midwestern voters by asking them questions. (1) Have you benefited from the Trump tax breaks for the rich? (2) If you are at a minimum wage level, are you satisfied that Trump and the Republicans oppose increasing the minimum wage? (3) Are you in agreement with Trump that health care controlled by the free market is in your best interests? (4) Do you agree that Trump should trust the word of Putin over that of heads of intelligence agencies that he appointed? (5) Do you think Trump is a racist? (6) If so, would the fact that he's a racist stop you from voting for him in 2020? (7) Since Trump has been in office, are you better off now? (8) What would I need to do to receive your vote?
5
Add do you believe in climate change. And the need to act. ? For the sake you of the next generation. Losing ground around the world.
Will Trump pay the price for his offensive and arrogant style of campaigning and governing? That, Prof. Edsall, is one of two $64 questions. The relevant question is, can traditional demographic analysis is useful in predicting whether Trump will lose?
My sense is that traditional demographic analysis is of very limited use in predicting the results of the 2020 election at this early stage. Trump won because Clinton angered and alienated more voters in three critical states than Trump.
One significant aspect of 2016 remains underreported and Trump and the Republicans used a social media propaganda blitz to outflank Democrats. Their propaganda blitz, conducted through Cambridge Analytica was well orchestrated and relied on Russian and Ukrainian troll farms. It caught the Democrats flatfooted. Its significance has been lost in the hope for a Trump impeachment based on Mueller's investigation.
The Mueller investigation has actually provided cover by investigating a conspiracy theory. That cover has allowed Trump and the Republicans to prepare a propaganda blitz for use in the 2020 election that will coordinate conservative media and social media propaganda broadcasts. Whether Trump loses in 2020 is less a question of demographics than of propaganda.
2
I'm always better informed by Mr. Edsall's data driven columns. They require mental digestion but nourish our understanding of issues.
As complicated as the red-blue relationship is, one point is most telling.
The population over age 60 leans red. Why?
Although not discussed in today's column, I would suggest those over 60 (full disclosure: I am) are more likely to be invested in their religions (meaning that they resort to putting their difficulties in the hands of their god rather than identify the source of their difficulties and choose to change what is afflicting them).
They are more likely to have reached a level of income security (i.e., I have mine, I struggled to get it, hands off, you are on your own).
They are more likely to have grown up with racial, sex-identity and gender prejudices (the 1950's 60's tolerated open racial bias, homophobia and gender discrimination; while a person over 60 isn't necessarily racist, homophobic or misogynous, they are more likely to have formed and locked in their views on these subjects when our society was more intolerant).
They are more likely to resist, even resent change (in culture, life-style, technology, and employment demands and requirements).
This age group is more likely to get most if not all of their "news" and views from Fox (a notoriously unreliable, intentionally misleading, and gas-lighting propaganda arm of the Republican Party).
And those over 60 seem prone to reacting emotionally rather than rationally.
5
The thing is, though, is that Trump is not a conservative; he's a con man who happens to head a party made up of puppets and fools. Demos must convince the rust belt of that.
8
“The economic beatings will continue until the citizen/‘subjects’ learn to stop revolting against the UHNWIs’ Disguised Global Crony Capitalist Empire.”
1
Thomas, generally speaking, do you agree that human beings tend to exploit other human beings? Where do you as an columnist for the times stand on mind-science? To me this country seems so extreme.
I've volunteered to hand out pamphlets. With mind-science and the internet I could be being exploited by Boris Johnson for the Brexit. That is what the Blue Brian Great American experiment has become.
Personally I'd like to read a commentary feat. Stanley Fish, and his thoughts of the Midwest states, giving reasons why we should be pro BIG Pharma. Of course we need healthcare and at times medication but my opinion is we put far to many people on meds that help give incentive and kickbacks to BIG pharma.
I am against human exploitation by workers and companies. And I, speaking for myself, am not looking for a hero.
This is an article addressing such concerns. Theoretically speaking it doesn't seem like what we are teaching is being practiced by some in our education system.
https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2012/03/31/stanley-fish-misunderstands-science-makes-it-a-faith-equivalent-to-religion/
So it is all about age and how good is the economy? What about propaganda? What about Fox News, talk radio, bible thumpers, and Murdoch & Spencer media? If all you hear is alternative facts and vituperation, it will rot your mind.
30
The big question to be answered by the 2020 election is whether America, like Donald Trump, is racist. If it is, Trump wins in a landside. While praising the intelligence of the American electorate, Trump secretly knows that they can be led around like bulls with nose rings - only instead of bull rings, he uses their beliefs and prejudices to lead them wherever he wants.
If DJT doesn't destroy our fragile democracy, he has published the blueprint and playbook for some other demagogue to do it later. If a democracy like America's is going to exist, there will have to be a paradigm shift in human thought throughout the world.
In the near future, we will program the human mind in the computer based on a "survival" algorithm, which will provide irrefutable proof as to how we trick the mind with our ridiculous beliefs about what is supposed to survive - producing minds programmed de facto for destruction. These minds see the survival of a particular belief as more important than the survival of us all. When we understand all this, we will begin the long trek back to reason and sanity.
See RevolutionOfReason.com
1
Re: Of the 43 congressional districts that shifted from Republican to Democratic control, 23, more than half, were ranked as prosperous, and seven, or 16.3 percent, were ranked as comfortable.
This is not new or unexpected. As Piketty observed in
"Voting for Left-Wing & Democratic Parties in France, Britain, US 1948-2017: From the Worker Party to the High-Education Party. "
Then have a look at this graph
https://promarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Piketty-1.png
The 2016 US presidential election, notes Piketty, represented yet another potential political realignment: for the first time, the top 10 percent of voters (based on income) voted Democrat.,,suggesting that high-income, high-wealth voters were also moving in the direction of the “left.”
=================
Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right:Rising Inequality & the Changing Structure of Political Conflict
(Evidence from France, Britain and the US, 1948-2017)
Thomas Piketty, March 2018
World Inequality Data Base
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Piketty2018.pdf
The Democrats, of course, could supplement their hope and prayer that the trends in the midwest urban centers will offset the aging rural population through traditional Democratic appeals and policies of protecting aging Americans from Republican attacks on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the ACA.
Where's the evidence that economically insecure rust belt folks are motivated by racism?
It's quite funny that a knee jerk response of racism permeates half of all the articles in the nytimes these days. It displays an amusing lack of self awareness and shows that coastal elite papers like the times are part of what handed the election to Trump.
Furthermore, it is particularly nervy of the nytimes to run pieces like this, while NYC has one of the most segregated school systems in the country. Remind me who's racist again?
13
@Mike
I was not aware that the NYT ran the public school system. It's a newspaper, not a government. NYC is part of the US and as such, will struggle with many of the same issues found throughout the country. Finally, "knee jerk" responses to a President who daily spews ugly and divisive rhetoric may be involuntary.
6
The demographics are interesting, but there is more to it than that. Republican doesn't mean Republican anymore. Rural people could be angry at liberals who they see taxing them and giving to "undeserving" while disrespecting the contribution of white people and endorse urban/suburban policies, aka left behind. But they have been "sold" by John Baron (T), who lies to them, (Baltimore and all cities are hell-holes). The real fact is that the world is changing and quickly, the politicians, especially R's, are conservative to new ideas. Us old concrete brains are not up to it. (I mean T, Sanders, McConnell, Biden, etc.) I personally think that the old people like me, who have no stake in the future, should acknowledge that our brains are slow, we lack wisdom and step aside.
1
I don't care.
I'm shocked to find that I don't care about Edsall's column today. I'm always a big fan; what went wrong?
Here's my analysis of what's coming in November 2020: Trump's base has not grown since 2016, in fact it's lost a bit as a few who were not infected by his poison have left it. So if the Dems nominate someone reasonably attractive who won't turn off the center, and if they focus on the right states in the right ways, they will win with nice margins in both the popular vote and the electoral college.
Sometimes, important things are really simple.
8
@joel bergsman I would tend to agree. Alot of the people who flipped from Obama to Trump can flip back to the Democrats if the Democrats nominate someone who won't turn off the center. The problem is who is that going to be ? Is Joe Biden "reasonably attractive enough" to be that nominee or is he going to make too many gaffs for people to reasonably consider him as President ?
1
I have only one objection to this illuminating analysis (one of the best I have seen). Referring to those over 65 as old people is convenient but wrong. It reinforces the kind of stereotyping that should be avoided in labeling any group of people.
2
Another excellent analysis of the electoral implications of population sorting is "The Density Divide," by Will Wilkinson of the Niskanen Center. One of the more eye-opening statements in that report is that there are no Republican cities, meaning Democrats are the majority in every major urban area. Wilkinson highlights this fact by saying, "The point is that there are no 'red states' or 'blue states.' There aren't even red or blue counties. What we see is compact blue urban density and sprawling red sparseness--even in small cities in rural states."
13
The fact that economically prosperous places vote Democratic while declining ones vote Republican may be due to the ideologies of each party. Democrats believe we are better off when the economically strong help those who are weaker, which works better when you're doing well (it is easier to share when you have more). Republicans are driven by fear of losing what you have, and people in declining areas understandably have more fear.
34
@Kent James best comment of the day.
As jobs and younger people leave the Rust Belt, we can hope that the population that remains is older and wiser. Medical care, Medicare becomes critical, rural hospitals will close if local services are no longer viable.
Immigration offers the best chance for revival and people ready-to-work.
7
There is room in August 2019 for debate on the merits of various Democratic candidates for President. There is little debate on who the Republican candidate will be.
This was a lot of print space to say Trump may or may not win, depending on who comes out to vote.
6
So, when we cross a magic age threshold, our political opinions radically shift in ways that allow us to embrace a megalomaniac reality TV star? I had no idea that the mid-life crisis was so profound.
28
And watch for GOP-run states to continue to intensify their efforts to suppress college students’ access to the ballot...
78
Edsall is quite right about the voting trend subtleties, especially in the Midwest.
But the bottom line remains that if African American voters, particularly males, had gone to the polls in 2016 in Milwaukee/Racine (WI), Philadelphia/Pittsburgh (PA), Detroit/Flint (MI), Jacksonville/Tampa/Miami (FL), and Charlotte/Durham/Raleigh/the Piedmont (NC) at the rates they did in 2008/12, we aren't even having this conversation (all due respect voter suppression tactics in these areas).
Yes, there are urban/suburban/rural, younger/older divides. But Democrats need to be working on that registration/turnout ground game, getting those text chains and phone banks and carpools and suppression fighting lawyers ready to go now, well in advance.
Turnout is the name of the game. Demographics, overall, do not favor Republicans, and favor them less and less each month. Republicans know their base is not growing, and the only way to win is to get it to show up en masse in certain areas--and to keep the other side's voters from having their votes recorded.
So the big tent party needs to emphasize that even if you don't agree with everyone under the tent, you have to be UNDER THE TENT on Election Day, and not stay home in a fit of pique over candidates who may not completely pass your own personal purity test.
The Democrats need to take responsibility for turnout. But so do the voters themselves.
147
@Glenn Rib Your second paragraph says it all.
Those "African American voters, particularly males," did not show up on election day. I assume that they did not think Ms. Clinton would do anything for African Americans. But one thing she would have done is appoint someone other than Gorsuch and Kavanagh to the Supreme Court. As it is the five republican justices are working everyday to suppress voting, to undo civil rights laws, and to disadvantage labor.
Anyway I agree completely with your comments and every democrat should go to the polls every chance they get. This idea that we should wait for the candidates to talk us into voting is nuts.
Best wishes.
28
@Glenn Ribotsky I will not be donating to ANY Democratic candidate. Instead, I will ONLY be donating to groups that get people, especially African Americans in those states to the voting booth. That's how we win, period (and maybe pick up a few Senators along the way).
20
@Glenn Ribotsky
Spoiler alert: the voter suppression efforts by the Russians and the Republican Party will be much more aggressive and pervasive than they were in 2016. Why else would Trump and McConnell, and their GOP colleagues, yawn in disdain at warnings by our intelligence chiefs and Robert Mueller?
They know our election process has been corrupted, in large part because they have expended huge amounts of anonymous cash to organizations that push for more stringent voter ID laws. This is especially true in every state whose legislature is dominated by Republicans.
Vote corruption is a growth industry around the world and here in the United States.
13
I think too much is made of age. My husband is a 75-year-old independent who has grown more liberal the older he gets. He says he will never again vote for any Republican since it has ecome a party that supports people like MCConnell and Trump.
176
I agree. My husband is a lifelong Republican but has not voted for a Republican since 2000.
66
I think the age variable is often used incorrectly. People don’t change their political orientations when they reach a milestone birthday. Today’s senior citizen Baby Boomers were middle aged Baby Boomers 10 years ago. It would be more useful to know how members of a particular age cohort voted 5 or 10 years ago. Chances are, nothing has changed.
9
@Christy
I witnessed a change as my grandmother got older and she expressed a "live and let live as long as you aren't hurting someone else" philosophy. After seeing and experiencing so much in life she came to realize what was important and what wasn't.
Those who have suffered a threatening illness often have a enhanced sense of what is really important, and it isn't hurting people.
It seems that life either leaves you more hardened toward others (tends toward Republican) or more appreciative of what life has tp offer (leaning Democratic).
78
Hard to follow all the trends. I get that older voters are more conservative and urban voters are more liberal.
When older voters move to the city, do they become more liberal? Or does the city get more conservative? Or both?
And more importantly, the age correlation with conservatism has been true for a long time. Does that mean that people, on average, inevitably grow more conservative as they age?
3
@JG
I'm 69. Short answer? No. I'm as liberal a D as they come. I'll never vote for a Republican after DT and this pathetic Senate.
10
@JG - "Does that mean that people, on average, inevitably grow more conservative as they age?"
So "they" say, altho' I don't understand it. I'm 74 and have swung from being mid-range (R)egressive (conservative x'tian family and all that) to a flaming, full-bore Progressive.
One would think that the hard lessons of life's unexpected pitfalls would make us all more compassionate and more understanding as we age.
OTOH, my older sister, who also grew up dirt poor and ended up marrying a guy who inherited a tanker-full of Exxon stock, is now as hard-(R)ight as can be. Go figure.
The more time I spend w/ people, the more I like the cat who deigns to live with me.
5
@Ken Fair enough. I am also 69 and will never vote for a Republican. BUT, the truth is that I have only once ever voted for a Republican, and then only in the hope that she would win (she didn’t) and I wouldn’t have to listen to Rush Limbaugh coming from her adjoining office daily.
3
In my Minnesota the extremes of urban-blue vs rural-red is exacerbated due to the Twin Cities, being the only large (but very large) metro area here, and a big big engine of growth. We also have a large hinterland, and only carried for Hillary by two skinny percentage points. At times I feel we are a state like Siamese twins, where one twin does all the heavy lifting, the other a rather cranky, resentful and needy drag.
43
We certainly see this in the greater Kansas City area which includes prosperous counties in both Missouri and Kansas. This is a diverse area with lots of immigrants. Kansas has a large immigrant population of highly educated Indians and south central Asians. Housing prices keep going up. Available stock is low. Young people are moving into renovated lofts downtown. Gentrification is a thing here. The suburbs keep expanding. The local universities keep growing. We have a world class performing arts center, The Kaufman Center, world class art galleries and even a pretty darn good football team. This is totally blue, progressive area.
Drive to the rural areas just outside of town and you enter another world. Get into south central Missouri and enter the Ozarks. Remember the movie Winter's Bone? These areas are white, poor, and in decline. Small towns that used to be supported by one or two factories are hollowing out, dying.
This is Trump country. They love Trump.
The divide in America is absolutely made by the rural/big city demarcation. The rurals are the have nots and the big city people are the haves, and the have nots have it in for the haves. Many commenters have reported that deep rurals are more interested in Trump sticking to the big city liberals then getting ahead themselves.
Trump capitalizes on that disdain and yes, hatred. That's why he keeps shouting his divisive rhetoric. This is what his base wants to hear.
261
@Bruce Rozenblit Good comments.
"Trump capitalizes on that disdain and yes, hatred."
Growing up in the Southern states, I know that hate (race) has played a big role in politics for many, many years. Back in the days of the Southern Democrats, race/cultural/religious antagonism was a key in politics and it continues to be under the republicans. Although it was often spoken of in "code."
Candidate used terms such as "states rights" "busing" "law and order" etc. The big change with The Donald is that he is shameless and brazen where other politicians were once subtle and more well mannered.
Many people love to nurse their hates and resentments. Many of the trump faithful love The Donald because he hates the people that they hate.
But a strange thing is that many of the areas that are strongest for The Donald are places that have very few immigrants, muslims, liberals, or dark-skinned people. They often hate people that they know little to nothing about and have never met or dealt with.
The way to deal with our economic and other problems is to look to the future and bring in everyone that wants to work and help; you don't solve anything by going to the past, hating, and running off people.
Let the haters hate; us big city liberals need to just keep doing the best we can everyday. Doing what we can to carry the country forward.
Best wishes.
39
@Bruce Rozenblit
Let's not forget that in 2016 Trump voters were significantly better-off financially than Clinton voters.
Counties and voters are frequently conflated. They are not the same thing.
6
@Bruce Rozenblit the last time I was near KC was when I was having my mare bred at a farm near Lone Jack about 14 years ago. I stayed with the people that owned the stallion. they had Fox News on TV from sunrise to bedtime..... sometimes volume up sometimes down. their high school sophomore daughter told me she could not wait to leave and that a bunch of guys in her class belonged to the KKK. "heritage not hatred" was the new Klan mantra. I was a real curiosity because everybody knew I was from San Francisco! was I gay? who knows? they certainly tried to make a definitive decision.... I believe the consensus was that I was not. from your description things have not improved except for KC! a city with a jazz tradition second to none.... which, sadly, I am sure is not celebrated by the trumpets...
26
Having spent most of my life in the Midwest, I can assure you it's not undecided. Democrats have already lost this territory. Farmers, manufacturers, miners and so forth are realists and will never vote for the fantasy-land proposals of the twenty or so candidates.
8
@Once From Rome
This is a comment of Gary from Oslo, in response to Frank Bruni's column. I know from your other comments you don't believe in facts (remember Karl Rove's comment that "we don't live in fact based reality, we create our own reality," or something to that effect).
Still, others may stop by from the real world and enjoy this. Best comment I've seen in awhile:
" I cannot for the life of me understand why advocating for the same social benefits that every other western, industrialized country has had for over half a century continues to be labeled "fantasies" and "dreams" by politicians and pundits in the U.S.! Don’t Americans want good things for themselves? Or do they think government is only supposed to take their tax money to wage wars and incarcerate their own people? "
***
OFR: I know you're going to make up some fantasy about how different "we" are and why we can't afford the same thing the rest of the world has. I look forward to it. Always nice to read some amusing fiction.
31
A farmer relative just got check for $16,000 supposedly because of the tariffs. Is Trump and his new party buying the election? Is this not a Republican fantasy-land idea?
17
@Once From Rome Realists? To the contrary: they are clinging to the fantasy that they can go back to the 1950s.
9
Here in IL-06, we took advantage of some of these trends in 2018 - a more-educated, more-liberal-minded majority of voters voted for a scientist-entrepreneur, Sean Casten, over a traditional Republican choice, Pete Roskam.
That's the first time in 30 years that a Dem held this district.
But it took an energized campaign concentrated on getting out the vote and focusing on the issues at hand - health care, jobs, the environment, and immigration - to defeat a Trump loyalist, and that was only by a few percentage points.
The real answer to beating Trump is massive voter registration in key battleground states - especially MI, OH, and WI - and a vigorous, positive campaign on the ground.
And there are plenty of ex-Republicans - whose party has left them, not the other way 'round! - who are disgusted enough to vote against DJT and his minions in 2020.
56
Some interesting points, especially about Trump benefitting from the anger vote at a depressed local economy, but the election will likely come down to an improved voter turnout among minorities and a switch from voters for the third party candidate to the Dem candidate.
32
The past cannot be rewritten. It is not 2016. Our nation has been wounded by a decades long shift to right wing thinking by entertainment "news" like Fox. Middle of the road ideas are blocked by "Moscow Mitch". Social media, influenced by foreign forces discourage our young from voting. Dems continue to be a step behind. We've all been tainted by entertainment news like Fox and refuse to believe that anything good can come our way. Bernie is no longer fresh, but seems old, tired and unwinnable, as do most of the dozens of Democratic candidates. We are simply tired of listening to anyone. We need a David against the Trump Goliath. Most of us would choose to watch a dating reality TV show over a Democratic "debate". Biden should not be the only candidate that can win. If Kasich could "primary" Trump, who do readers think will take the WH in 2020?
6
Four states--Iowa, PA, Wisconsin and Michigan are identified as states where the Democrats face an uphill battle. I don't think so, but commentators such as the author really didn't understand the 2016 before November 8 and are struggling to understand it in 2019. What seemed improbable on November 7, 2016 (a Trump win in the Midwest), now has credibility.
Demographics are interesting, but it is a matter of who votes and who does not. See Brexit where the 18-25 voters stayed home. This comes to the point--people on this page argue that many Republicans in rural areas are voting against their own interests, but never seem to point to those who never bother to go out to vote--less than 100,000 voters in 2016, who voted in 2012, who failed themselves. The election will be driven by demographics--namely those who show up and vote.
38
The midterms were won in large part by moderates and independent voters in swing suburban districts not the Twitter brigade of the party. What Sanders is offering may be an inventive solution to our myriad problems. But all voters will hear is he wants to raise taxes on the middle class (which he admitted last night) and he wants to take away their insurance. That's all, and no amount of yelling, passion, and long posts will change that. As Biden has said Medicare for all ignores the logistical nightmare of getting people off their private insurance and into Medicare. Voters will be turned off by a Dem candidate advocating such a radical departure. Sanders demonstrated that he doesn't have the temperament to be President in the last debates when he called for giving incarcerated felons the right to vote. The Boston Marathon Bomber kills three people, maims & injures 280 more. Bernie’s concern? That he gets his absentee ballot. This won't play with voters in the Midwest. Sanders proved his critics right: he's too far to the left, too inflexible, & has poor political instincts. If he's the nominee the Democrats will lose decisively. The Democrats need to “thin the herd” so that the essential debate can take place, i.e., the debate between those who support sweeping social programs vs. those who want to know how to pay for them. Once the herd becomes distilled for this comparison, Democrats will figure out whether they want to nominate a big dreamer or a pragmatist.
25
@Ed Davis
How do you know these things to be true?
Frankly, they are pronouncements from the Republicans and their enablers in the center-right wing of the Democratic Party.
Are they true? Wait for the election. Only then will you "know" what you think you know now. Remember, "everybody" knew Hillary would win, too.
2
"Now, 15 months before the election, economic conditions in these counties remain dismal and “the latest data provide no evidence that their trajectories will have meaningfully changed by 2020.”
This underscores the perception that working-class whites who flipped from Barack Obama to Donald Trump still don't get it. Their communities are not improving. They are the cliché: "voting against their best interests." So why are they still stuck on Trump?
His appeals to their fears and racism have merit but, absent any real improvement for them, may not be binding the next time around. Yes, they justify their anger and their hate but at the day's end, it doesn't improve their lot. It's a loop without an end. And the agriculture bloc in this huge area has suffered greatly under this president. Can they continue to support a president whose tariff tantrums have gouged them grievously?
In spite of the fire and smoke of the president's appalling statements about people of color in Congress, '20 is still going to be about the things that matter to most people who are struggling, and that's getting from dawn to dusk with some reasonable prospect that the following day won't find one homeless or out of work.
Nothing that this president has done while in office has benefited the white workers who put him there. True, their resentment of non-whites and immigrants was a great accelerant for the president. But that may not work this time around. He's favored the rich. People see that.
88
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
No, Red Sox, this underscores how little the Democrats offer those people, and how effectively Trump lies to them.
The Democrats need to appeal to the good people of Baltimore, too, but if they show they don't care about Dayton and Green Bay they aren't going to beat Donny Small Hands.
12
@Green Tea
What "good people" do you know who voted for Trump, and with the history of the first three years of his term, will vote for him again? Please define what you consider good for us on the bewildered coasts.
4
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
Very few working class whites flipped from Obama to Trump. Counties are not voters.
It's way past time for us to stop inflating the significance of this mostly mythical group.
Turnout of the Democratic coalition will ensure a Democratic win. Young people are the most crucial focus in that respect, because they are very high in number. They also heavily favor progressive policies, and have low participation rates because they are discouraged by politics and governing which do not reflect their priorities and values.
7